03-28-24 |
Illinois v. Iowa State OVER 145.5 |
|
72-69 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (631) and the Iowa State Cyclones (632) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (28-8) has won six straight games and nine of their last ten contests after their 89-63 victory against Duquesne as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Iowa State (29-7) has won five games in a row and nine of their last ten games after their 67-56 victory against Washington State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones outlasted the Cougars on Saturday despite only making 40.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Despite that underwhelming performance, Iowa State is still making 47.8% of their shots in their last five games -- and they rank 40th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Cyclones rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they allow +7.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions which is the 341st worst drop in that metric when compared to their home court split stats. Illinois has played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win by ten or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Fighting Illini have played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points. And in their last 22 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have played 18 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, Illinois has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their 28 games this season Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games after 15 games into this season Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout withOver the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (631) and the Iowa State Cyclones (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 |
Top |
96-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-24 |
Washington State v. Iowa State UNDER 129 |
|
56-67 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (799) and the Iowa State Cyclones (800) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (25-9) has won two of their last three games after their 66-61 upset victory as a 1-point underdog on Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Iowa State (28-7) has won four straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 82-65 victory against South Dakota State as a 15-point favorite on Thursday in their opening game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Washington State has now played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road against teams outside the Pac-12 after their game with the Duquesne finished below the 138-point total. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in the last three days. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Washington State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Iowa State is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods after making 57.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last 24 contests. The Cyclones have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: Washington State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and Iowa State has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 8* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (799) and the Iowa State Cyclones (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-24 |
Texas A&M v. Nebraska OVER 146.5 |
|
98-83 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 6:50 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (779) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (780) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (20-14) was on a five-game winning streak before their 95-90 loss to Florida as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the SEC Tournament on Saturday. Nebraska (23-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 98-87 loss to Illinois as a 5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Texas A&M leads the nation in offensive rebounding by pulling down 42.0% of their missed shots. Crashing the glass travels — the Aggies score +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Texas A&M has played 8 straight Overs after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Aggies have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 7 straight Overs when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. Nebraska has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. And while the Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Nebraska has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and Texas A&M has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 8* CBB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (779) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-24 |
Drake v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (28-6) has won five straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after upsetting Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game as a 3-point underdog on March 10th. Washington State (24-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 58-52 loss to Colorado as a 2-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs nailed 51.7% of their shots in their upset victory against the Sycamores 11 days ago which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. With the extended layoff between games, their shooting may be rusty tonight — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests — so head coach Darian DeVries will likely have his team tighten up on that end of the court. Drake struggled on the defensive end of the court in hostile environments where they had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 103.9 — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their seven games on neutral courts of 97.8 this season was in line with their 98.5 defensive efficiency clip when playing on their home court. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, Drake has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders and 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Drake scores -2.7 fewer Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they do not engage the things to increase their scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. They force turnovers in just 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 142nd. They rank 186th in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not gotten great point guard play from sophomore Conor Enright or freshman Coby Colby who split time — it is why DeVries has resorted to deploying his son, Tucker, as a point forward. But that may not be effective against the outstanding half-court defense of the Cougars. Drake can’t get mired into being too reliant on outside shooting where they do make 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. Washington State ranks 51st in the nation by holding their opponents to a 31.6% shooting clip from behind the arc when playing away from home — and they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Myles Rice is their only player who has the skills to create Despite their loss to the Buffaloes last week, they held them to just 43.1% shooting. They surrender -3.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they also only score 69.7 PPG on the road which is -4.7 fewer PPG than their season average — and the -8.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road represents the 342nd worst drop in scoring efficiency when compared to their home numbers. Head coach Kyle Smith is going to slow this game to a crawl — the Cougars rank 315th in the nation with only 64.9 adjusted possessions per game. Washington State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. And while the Bulldogs make 47.9% of their shots, the Cougars have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to be a rock fight given the lack of scoring options for both teams. Washington State has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 Points-Per-Game — and Drake has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-24 |
Colorado State v. Virginia UNDER 121 |
Top |
67-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers tend to get into rock fight contests — especially against teams unfamiliar with their brand of the pack line defense. Virginia ranks seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also like to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. They rank 352nd in the nation by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 362nd in the nation by averaging 59.9 adjusted possessions per game. Head coach Tony Bennett has had his team slow things down even more lately. In the Cav’s last three games, they have averaged 21.0, 21.5, and 22.6 seconds per possession. For some context, Air Force was the slowest team in the nation averaging 20.5 seconds per possession — so Bennett has his team going even slower than that. Virginia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while this is their third game since Thursday, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Virginia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Colorado State has played 8 straight Unders after winning four of their last five games. And while the Rams have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then played 4 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in four or more of their last five games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. But the Rams’ 46.4% shooting percentage and 72.4 PPG scoring mark away from home are 2.4% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. They score -4.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They rank 241st in the nation by making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc away from home — and their inability to make 3s will make solving the Virginia pack line defense very difficult. They are led by point guard Isaiah Stevens — but he has a difficult challenge tonight when he will be guarded by Reece Beekman who is a glove defensively. Colorado State has played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when on a neutral court — and Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-24 |
Heat v. 76ers UNDER 209 |
|
91-98 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the Philadelphia 76ers (562). THE SITUATION: Miami (37-30) has won two games in a row after their 104-101 victory at Detroit as a 5-point favorite yesterday. Philadelphia (37-30) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 109-98 victory against Charlotte as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after when playing without a day of rest — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Miami has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Jimmy Butler is questionable with a foot injury for the Heat — and this Philly team already without Joel Embiid may also be without Tobias Harris who is questionable with an ankle. Miami has won the last three meetings between these two teams after their 109-104 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on February 14th. 8* NBA Miami-Philadelphia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (561) and the Philadelphia 76ers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-24 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky UNDER 145 |
Top |
71-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UTEP (18-15) has won five straight games after their 65-63 upset win against Sam Houston State as a 5-point underdog yesterday afternoon. Western Kentucky (21-11) has won two games in a row after their 85-54 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTEP only made 43.7% of their shots yesterday — but they held the Bearkats to just 41.2% shooting while holding them to just 53 points. The Miners have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Conference USA opponent — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less this season. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 9 games played with one day or less of rest, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. UTEP only makes 41.3% of their shots on the road resulting in just 65.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.7% and -7.2 PPG below their season averages. They rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road which is the 262nd worst drop in the country. But the Miners also rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are giving up -1.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. A key dynamic for this contest is that UTEP leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. The Hilltoppers play at the fastest pace in the nation — but the pressure the Miners present will slow down their attack. Western Kentucky ranks 262nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. UTEP has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. Western Kentucky wants to build off their strong defensive effort yesterday after limiting the Blue Raiders to just 31.0% shooting in their 31-point victory. The Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. And while they made 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc yesterday, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. Western Kentucky has scored 85 or more points in their two tournament games this week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have scored at least 79 points in five straight games — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Hilltoppers’ fast pace makes Overs tempting when considering them but they only make 45.4% of their shots on the road resulting in 77.7 PPG — and those numbers are -1.4% and -3.0 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They are also giving up -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Western Kentucky has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Western Kentucky won on their home court by a 90-80 score on February 15th. The Miners have played 5 of their 6 opportunities to avenge an earlier loss this season Under the Total. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-24 |
Alabama A&M v. Texas Southern UNDER 136 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-112 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504) in the Semifinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama A&M (12-21) has won three of their last four games after their 75-63 upset victory against Alcorn State as a 3-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Wednesday. Texas Southern (15-15) has won six of their last seven contests after their 72-62 victory as a 3-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Alabama A&M has pulled off two straight upsets relying on their defense. After holding Southern University to 37.2% shooting last Saturday in their 66-56 victory, they limited Alcorn State to just a 37.0% field goal percentage in their upset victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. Alabama A&M has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contest. But the Bulldogs rank only 356th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Granted, we are talking about a SWAC team in what is not one of the strongest conferences in the nation. But they rank just 10th in the SWAC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they fall to 11th in that metric when playing on the road. They are making only 40.6% of their shots on the road including just 25.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 66.4 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But back to their defense which has held their last five opponents to 64.4 PPG from 39.7% shooting from the field — and those marks are -11.0 PPG and -2.7% below their season averages. They lead the SWAC by limiting their opponents to making only 41.7% of their shots inside the arc. SWAC opponents are making only 38.5% of their shots against them overall — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in conference play. Furthermore, Alabama A&M has played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas Southern comes off their best defensive game of the season after limiting Jackson State to a 32.3% shooting percentage yesterday. While I often think that is a mark screaming out for the Regression Gods, in this instance I suspect it is reflective of the tough defense this team has embraced under head coach Johnny Jones as they enter the postseason. That game finished Under the 140.5-point total — and the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their previous game. Texas Southern is second in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference in that metric when playing on the road. They also rank a very respectable 60th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. On the road, Texas Southern holds their opponents to -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But unfortunately for them, they also score -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They only make 39.3% of their shots including 29.1% of their 3-pointers away from home resulting in just 65.8 PPG — and those marks are -2.1% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. Their last five-game scoring numbers are up — but that comes from three games on their home court where they scored at least 79 points in each game while generating 84.0 PPG. But in their last three games away from home, they have not scored more than 77 points. The Tigers have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern won the only previous meeting between these teams this season in an 85-69 victory at home. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-24 |
Fresno State v. Wyoming UNDER 138.5 |
|
77-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666) in the first round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Fresno State (11-20) has lost seven games in a row after their 86-47 upset loss to this Wyoming team as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Wyoming (15-16) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed the Cowboys to make 57.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games and second-worst of their entire season. After losing by 39 points just four days ago, head coach Justin Hutson will make sure his team plays harder in this rematch. Fresno State has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. But Hutson may not be able to do much to help the Bulldogs improve on their dreadful 28.6% shooting in that game (other than pray to the Regression Gods). They rank 279th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have scored only 95 combined points in their last two games. Fresno State has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. Wyoming certainly overachieved in the shooting department in that contest — it was their best shooting mark in their last 30 games going back to their season opener. Now playing away from Laramie, they only make 43.6% of their shots when on the road. Head coach Jeff Linder loved the defensive performance from his team — and the Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing their previous opponent to make more than 33% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams may need to knock some of the cobwebs loose with this being a local tip-off time at 11 AM PT. Wyoming has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on a neutral court. Fresno State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. Wyoming has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Bulldogs have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-24 |
New Hampshire v. Vermont UNDER 137.5 |
|
59-66 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
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At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Hampshire Wildcats (306527) and the Vermont Catamounts (306528) in the Semifinals of the America East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Hampshire (16-14) snapped their four-game losing streak with a 77-64 victory against Binghamton as a 3.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this event on Saturday. Vermont (26-6) has won eight straight games after their 75-72 victory against Albany as a 16-point favorite in their Quarterfinals contest in this tournament on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 44.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last five contests. But New Hampshire has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total on the road after a win on their home court. And in their last 17 games after losing four of their last five games, they have played 14 of those games Under the Total. Now they go back on the road where they are making only 40.4% of their shots including just 32.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in 72.1 Points-Per-Game (due their fast pace). They do hold their home hosts to 44.6% shooting and a 29.9% clip from behind the arc. New Hampshire has played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Now they face a Catamounts team that leads the America East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Vermont ranks 35th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% when playing at home. They also rank 13th in the nation on their home court by limiting their opponents to pulling down 22.6% of their missed shots — and they rank fifth in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line on their home court. Albany made 46.6% of their shots against them on Saturday which was the Catamounts' worst defensive performance in their last four games. Vermont has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival. They have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 39.3% shooting including a 31.3% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 58.5 PPG. And while they do score +1.4 more PPG when playing at home, that is nullified by the -4.7 fewer PPG they give up when it comes to this Under play. The Catamounts have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire plays at the 18th fastest rate in the country — but they have seen -0.6 fewer adjusted possessions per game in their last ten contests. But now they play this Vermont team that loves to slow games down to a crawl. The Catamounts rank 326th in the nation by averaging 18.9 seconds per possession — and they rank 350th in the nation by averaging 63.4 adjusted possessions per game. Vermont has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Tuesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Hampshire Wildcats (306527) and the Vermont Catamounts (306528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-24 |
San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 150.5 |
Top |
77-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
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At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (23-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-51 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. Gonzaga (24-6) has won eight straight games after their 70-57 upset victory at Saint Mary’s as a 3.5-point underdog on March 2nd. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. They stepped up their play on defense by holding the Pilots to just 32.7% shooting — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55% of their shots in their last contest. Additionally, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points against a West Coast Conference rival. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. And they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They are making 45.7% of their shots on the road resulting in 71.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.3% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in those road games. But on the other end of the court, they are holding their opponents to just 42.2% shooting with a 32.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.9 PPG. The Dons rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to the eighth-best defense in the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on the road ranking 21st in the nation — and they are giving up -8.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Gonzaga made 51.7% of their shots against the Gaels which was the worst shooting effort in their alt three games — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have won six straight games by 13 or more points — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 13 games on the road after winning four or more games in a row, they have then played 11 of these games Under the Total. The Bulldogs are scoring 80.3 PPG away from home with a 49.6% field goal percentage — but those numbers are still -5.3 PPG and -2.3% below their season averages. They hold their opponents to 42.7% shooting and 69.9 PPG on the road — and they are giving up -3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. Interestingly, head coach Mark Few has his team playing at a slower pace lately — they are averaging 1.3 fewer possessions per game in their last ten games. The Dons are outscoring their opponents by +12.3 PPG — and Gonzaga has played 7 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 161.5 |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). THE SITUATION: Arizona (88-65) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 88-65 victory as a 9.5-point favorite as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. USC (13-17) has won two games in a row after their 81-73 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 51.9% of their shots against the Bruins which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 51.8% of their shots in their last five contests. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 90.3 Points-Per-Game. They have scored 85 or more points in four straight games as well as nine of their last 11 contests. But they have also allowed 75 or more points in five of their last eight contests as well. They play at a very fast pace — they average only 15.1 seconds per possession which is the eighth quickest mark in the nation. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while this is just their second game since February 28th, they have then played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. Arizona stays on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +4.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they are also giving up 80.6 PPG on the road — and the +8.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are giving up away from home represents the 342nd biggest jump in the nation. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. USC has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Trojans have scored 163 combined points in their last two games — and they are making 48.6% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 77.8 PPG. But they have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Sun Devils enjoyed a 50% shooting clip against them on Thursday. USC has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the Trojans rank 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total on their home court. USC has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won the first meeting on January 17th by an 82-67 score as a 20.5-point favorite — and the Trojans have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Rhode Island v. Fordham OVER 146.5 |
Top |
58-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). THE SITUATION: Rhode Island (11-19) has lost seven games in a row after their 69-57 loss at home to George Mason as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Fordham (12-18) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after a 66-64 loss at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Rhode Island made only 29.4% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting performance of their season. That game finished well Under the 142.5-point total — but these Rams have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Rhode Island has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots resulting in 84.0 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they rank 337th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots and 37.3% of their 3-pointers when on the road resulting in 81.9 PPG. They are surrendering +5.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road — but they are also scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home as well. They rank 35th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home — and Fordham allows their guests to make 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Rhode Island has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Rhode Island should also get plenty of points from the charity stripe as they lead the Atlantic 10 in free throw rate — and Fordham is last in the conference in putting their opponent on the line. Fordham has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Their loss against the Minutemen on Wednesday finished Under the 143-point Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Fordham ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they rank 222nd in the nation in that metric. They allow their opponents to guests to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 73.7 PPG — and they are giving up +9.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They are also scoring +3.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The hosting Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs at home when playing 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-68 score as a 2.5-point underdog on January 24th — and Rhode Island has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Diego OVER 153.5 |
|
52-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (891) and the San Diego Toreros (892) in the second round of the West Coast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (13-19) snapped their two-game losing streak in a 102-43 thrashing of Pacific as a 10-point favorite yesterday. San Diego (17-14) ended their three-game losing streak with an 81-69 victory as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave held the Tigers to just 25.0% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort all season. Pepperdine has played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after losing two of their last three games. That final score finished below the 151-point total — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total on the road after playing an Under in their last contest. They have also played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. The Wave is nailing 51.8% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 81.4 Points-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they are scoring +3.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But Pepperdine is also allowing their opponents to score +6.0 points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. They are giving up 52.2% shooting including a 45.8% mark from behind on the arc say from home resulting in 82.1 Points-Per-Game. Those marks represent +7.5 and +3.6% higher marks than their season average. The Wave have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. San Diego held the Tigers to 44.0% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last four contest. The Toreros have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they are scoring +2.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. On the other end of the court, they are giving up +1.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They are allowing these opponents to make 49.5% of their shots including 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 82.3 PPG. Those marks are +5.1 and +3.7% higher than their season average. San Diego has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Toreros won the last meeting between these two teams by a 69-67 score as a 7.5-point underdog on January 27th — and the Wave have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (891) and the San Diego Toreros (892). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-24 |
Navy v. Boston University OVER 132.5 |
|
61-70 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (306575) and the Boston University Terriers (306576) in the Quarterfinals of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Navy (13-17) has won five games in a row after their 64-48 victory against Loyola-Maryland as a 6.5-point favorite in the first round of this tournament on Tuesday. Boston University (15-16) has won five games in a row as well after their 94-84 victory against Holy Cross as a 9-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Midshipmen held the Greyhounds to just 27.0% shooting from the field on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last 27 games. But Navy has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 60 points in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after holding their previous opponent to no better than 33% shooting. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Now the Midshipmen hit the road against where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.5% of their shots resulting in 71.9 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are +3.2% and +5.3 PPG above their season averages. They are allowing +6.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments, the 308th worst drop in the nation. They are also scoring +1.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions in true road games. Navy has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog. Boston has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row. The Terriers stay at home where they rank 343rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are giving up +15.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home — the 362nd worst decline in the nation. Boston’s guests are scoring 69.9 PPG which is +3.7 more PPG than what they give up overall. They are also scoring +12.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The 72.3 PPG they score at home is +6.3 more PPG than their season average. The Terriers have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games but the Terriers won the last meeting by a 74-65 score as a 3.5-point home favorite on February 17th. Navy has played 5 of their 8 opportunities for revenge this season Over the Total. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between Navy Midshipmen (306575) and the Boston University Terriers (306576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-24 |
Utah State v. San Jose State OVER 144.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). THE SITUATION: Utah State (24-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six after their 72-60 victory against Air Force as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. San Jose State (9-21) has lost five games in a row after their 68-50 loss at UNLV as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies rank 11th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they lead the Mountain West Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Utah State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win at home by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 60 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 76.4 Points-Per-Game while giving up 72.5 PPG. They rank second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but sit just eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they are giving up +8.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road in hostile environments. The Aggies have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss where they did not score more than 60 points — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. And while their loss to the Runnin’ Rebels finished Under the 138.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Spartans return home where they are nailing 47.8% of their shots resulting in 76.1 PPG — and those marks represent a +6.2 PPG and a +3.1% bump over their season averages. But they are also allowing their guests to make 47.4% of their shots including 39.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG which is +2.2 PPG higher than their season defensive average. San Jose State scores +8.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions when at home which ranks 29th in the nation in the biggest jump. They also allow +4.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home, ranking 307th worst in the country. The Spartans have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation as they rank 281st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 331st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% which does not bode well against a great shooting team like the Aggies. Utah State made 60% of their shots including a 6 of 12 mark from behind the arc en route to their 82-61 victory against the Spartans at home on January 30th — and San Jose State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-24 |
Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 |
|
122-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (537) and the Houston Rockets (538). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 113-106 loss at Milwaukee as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Houston (27-34) has won two games in a row after their 114-101 victory at home against San Antonio as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Bucks to make 47.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook who injured his hand and may miss the rest of the regular season. This team will need his offensive spark coming off the bench. As it is, Los Angeles are making 47.9% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 110.8 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -6.4 PPG and a -1.2% drops from their season average. The Clippers stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Houston made 46.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting mark in their last 11 contests. But the Rockets have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston is still only making 40.8% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 108.4 PPG — and those numbers represent a -4.4 PPG and a -4.7% drop from their season averages. They stay at home where they are limiting their guests to just 44.9% shooting including a 32.8% mark from behind the arc resulting in 109.5 PPG. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets want to avenge a 106-100 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers on November 17th last fall — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Houston ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (537) and the Houston Rockets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-24 |
Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State OVER 145.5 |
|
75-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (635) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (636). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (20-9) snapped their two-game winning streak with an 81-70 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Oklahoma State (12-17) has lost three games in a row with their 81-65 loss at Texas as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are 12th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while their game with the Mountaineers finished just Under the 151.5-point total, Texas Tech has played 10 straight Over on the road after playing an Under in their last game. They stay on the road where they are making 46.2% of their shots including 39.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 74.5 Points-Per-Game. But the Red Raiders are allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots including 38.6% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.0 PPG. Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Oklahoma State (12-17) has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. They return home where they are making 47.3% of their shots including 37.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG. They are scoring +5.1 PPG and making +2.7% of their shots at home. The Cowboys have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total on their home court. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State wants to avenge a 90-73 loss to the Red Raiders as a 7.5-point underdog on January 9th — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (635) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-24 |
Iona v. Marist UNDER 133 |
|
71-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iona Gaels (833) and the Marist Red Foxes (834). THE SITUATION: Iona (13-15) has lost four games in a row after their 82-64 upset loss to Quinnipiac as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Marist (16-10) won for the sixth time in their last seven games in a 58-55 upset victory against Fairfield as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gaels are only making 38.6% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 66.0 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -4.4% and 6.6 PPG below their season average. This slumping Iona team has not scored more than 65 points in three of their last four games. The Gaels have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road after a loss by double-digits to a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference rival. And while they have suffered upset losses in two straight games, they have then played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. They have not covered the point spread in six straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they rank 242nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. But Iona does play better on the other end of the court when playing in true road games. They rank 86th in the nation in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and the adjusted -7.3 points per 100 possessions they give up in hostile environments represents the 16th improvement in the nation. The Gaels have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. The Red Foxes made 40.4% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. Marist has not scored more than 60 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. But the Red Foxes are playing outstanding defense right now. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 55 points — and their last five opponents are only making 37.0% of their shots resulting in 58.2 PPG. They held the Stags to just 28.3% shooting on Thursday — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Marist has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory on their home court. The Red Foxes lead the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay at home this afternoon where they hold their guests to just 37.3% shooting and a 30.1% clip from behind the arc resulting in 57.6 PPG. They are only scoring 65.5 PPG from a 44.4% shooting percentage when playing at home. Marist has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Marist won the first meeting between these two teams by a 68-64 score back on November 29th despite being a 7.5-point underdog. Iona has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Iona Gaels (833) and the Marist Red Foxes (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-24 |
Texas Tech v. West Virginia OVER 151 |
|
81-70 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (721) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (722). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (19-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 81-69 upset loss at home against Texas as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. West Virginia (9-19) has lost six of their last seven contests after their 94-90 loss in overtime at Kansas State as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders only made 35.6% of their shots against the Longhorns which was the worst shooting effort of their season. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss to a Big 12 rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. And in their last 22 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have played 16 of those games Over the Total. The Red Raiders go back on the road where they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in true road games. They are making 46.1% of their shots in hostile environments resulting in 74.0 Points-Per-Game — and they rank fifth in the nation by making 41.0% of their shots in true road games. Their effective field goal percentage of 56.6% in hostile environments ranks fourth best in the nation. But Texas Tech’s play on defense is faltering. They rank 77th in the nation and 12th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed their last five opponents to score 73.8 PPG which is +4.4 PPG above their season average. On the road, they are allowing their home hosts to make 45.8% of their shots including 41.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking 355th worst in the nation. Overall, the Red Raiders are giving up 76.5 PPG in true road games — and they rank 215th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in hostile environments. West Virginia made only 39.0% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Mountaineers have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. This team also struggles on the defensive end of the court. They are last in the Big 12 and 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing 81.4 PPG in their last five games which is +6.3 PPG above their season average. But they are also scoring 75.4 PPG in those previous five games — and that mark is +6.0 PPG above their season average. West Virginia returns home where they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. The Mountaineers rank 40th in the nation in getting to the free throw line when playing at home — and the 72.2 PPG they are scoring at home is +2.8 PPG above their season average.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Texas Tech has played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (721) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-24 |
North Carolina-Asheville v. Radford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
71-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (19-11) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 78-77 upset loss at home against Gardner-Webb as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Radford (15-15) had their two-game winning streak end in a 58-57 upset loss at Charleston Southern as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots in their loss last week which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. UNC-Asheville has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after an upset loss to a Big South rival. And while that game with Gardner-Webb finished Over the 1553.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last contest. The Bulldogs lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9% — and they rank 22nd in the nation by making 37.5% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 75.9 Points-Per-Game -- fueled by the sixth-best free throw rate when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 47th in the nation by making 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. But UNC-Asheville ranks 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 307th in that nation in that metric when playing on the road in hostile environments. The adjusted +8.3 points per 100 possessions they allow in hostile environments represents the 339th worst spike in the country. They are giving up 78.8 PPG in those games. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. The Highlanders make 46.5% of their shots — and UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams making 45% or more of their shots. Radford made only 41.8% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They still rank third in the Big South in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five games. More surprisingly, they held Charleston Southern to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Highlanders rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in the Big South in that category. Radford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they are scoring 76.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting — and those marks are +3.4 PPG and +3.0% above their season average. The Highlanders rank 14th in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court. But they also rank 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and the +5.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions they allow represents the 318th biggest jump when assessing home court play. Radford has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Bulldogs average eight made 3s per game, the Highlanders have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Radford has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-24 |
Old Dominion v. Georgia Southern OVER 152.5 |
Top |
75-92 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (7-23) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 89-64 loss at Appalachian State as a 14.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (7-23) has won two of their last three games after their 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Old Dominion plays at a fast pace — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per Game while ranking 46th in their Average Possession Length. They have been playing even quicker in conference play as they lead the Sun Belt with 72.5 Adjusted Possessions per Game while averaging 16.2 Seconds per Possession. The Monarchs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Old Dominion ranks 214th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to ranking 312th in the nation in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Furthermore, they rank 233rd in the nation in their drop in Adjusted Net Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.3% of their shots resulting in 82.5 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 73.2 PPG in those road games. The Monarchs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rises by 5.5 points when they are playing in hostile environments — and that bump ranks as the 38th biggest jump in the nation. Old Dominion has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their games. Georgia Southern played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Thundering Herd to 73 points. The Eagles rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But by making 56.9% of their shots in that game on Wednesday, they made at least 50.9% of their shots for the third time in their last four games. Georgia Southern has scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 80.0 PPG. They have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. They have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a victory by ten or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they are making 47.1% of their shots including 41.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.5 PPG. They are scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and that rise in efficiency is the sixth largest for home courts in the nation. Georgia Southern has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion only makes 41.9% of their shots but they average 62 shot attempts per game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-24 |
Towson v. North Carolina A&T UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
84-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). THE SITUATION: Towson (17-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-56 loss to the College of Charleston as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina A&T (7-22) has lost seven straight games after their 83-67 loss at Monmouth as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers allowed the Cougars to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games — and the 72 points they gave up was the most they had allowed in five straight contests. Towson still leads the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting from the field resulting in only 61.4 Points-Per-Game. The Tigers should tighten things up on defense tonight — they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 15 or more points. But Towson can struggle to score points. They rank 227th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are just eighth in the conference in that category. They go back on the road where they are only making 38.4% of their shots resulting in just 62.3 PPG. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored by double-digits. UNC A&T only made 28.3% of their shots on Saturday — but that was only their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last five games in a span where they have not shot better than 38.2% from the field. In their last five games, the Aggies are making only 32.4% of their shots resulting in just 57.6 PPG. They are last in the Colonial Athletic Association and 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The 67 points they scored was their highest total in their last nine contests. UNC A&T has then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 45.1% shooting resulting in 68.5 PPG — and those marks are -3.2% and -9.7 PPG lower than their season averages. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams can shoot the basketball. Towson ranks 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.7% and UNC A&T ranks 355th with an eFG of 44.2%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and the Aggies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-24 |
Pittsburgh v. Clemson OVER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (18-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 79-64 victory at Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Clemson (19-8) has won five of their last six games with their 74-63 win against Florida State as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers held the Hokies to just 40.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court — especially in the interior where they rank 13th in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 53.3% of their 2-point shots. And in their true road games, they allow their home hosts to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 329th in the nation. The Tigers' big man P.J. Hall should have a big night — he is scoring 18.7 Points-Per-Game while making more than 68% of his shots in the paint. Clemson ranks 38th in the nation by making 54.4% of their shots inside the arc. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points on their home court. Additionally, while Pitt has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Panthers rank just eighth in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. But Pitt can put up points as they take advantage of most of their possessions and launch tons of 3s. They rank 18th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.2% of their possessions. They also rank 25th in the nation by taking 45.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they are scoring 72.9 PPG — and they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring +9.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road when compared to their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 41.4% shooting, Pitt has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. Clemson held the Seminoles to just 36.9% shooting on Saturday on the heels of limiting Georgia Tech to a 30.2% field goal percentage last Wednesday — but they have then played 6 straight Overs after holding their last two opponents to no higher than 37% shooting. They only made 44.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Tigers are still making 49.8% of their shots in their also five games — and they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Clemson has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a double-digit win at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they are allowing +1.9 more points per possession per 100 possessions in adjusted numbers — and that number ranks 245th in the largest home/road discrepancy. They are scoring 80.3 PPG at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, Clemson has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in February. And while the Panthers are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh looks to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Clemson as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 3rd — and they have played 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. The Panthers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-24 |
NC-Wilmington v. Campbell OVER 143 |
|
100-105 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (887) and the Campbell Camels (888). THE SITUATION: UNC-Wilmington (20-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 81-65 victory at William & Mary as an 11-point favorite on Thursday. Campbell (12-16) has lost three games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 72-68 upset loss against Hampton as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks made 49.1% of their shots against the Tribe which was the fifth straight game where they nailed at least 47.5% of their shots. They are making 51.4% of their shots in their last five games which is up 4.9% over their season average. UNC-Wilmington has played 4 straight Overs after making 47% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. And in their last 9 games after scoring 80 or more points, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. This is just their second game since last Saturday — and they have played 16 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. The Seahawks usually get the most out of each possession as they rank third in the country by turning the ball over in just 12.7% of their possessions. They are second in the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stay on the road where they are scoring 77.0 Points-Per-Game. They average 67.2 adjusted possessions per game which is +3.1 more possessions than what they average when playing at home with that slower pace. UNC-Wilmington has played 22 of their last 29 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 145 to 149.5. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road as a favorite in the 6.5-12 point range. Campbell only made 37.5% of their shots last Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. And by holding the Pirates to 41.0% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last eight contests. That final score flew Under the 148.5-point total — but the Camels have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. Despite that good effort against Hampton, Campbell has allowed their last five opponents to make 45.8% of their shots resulting in 80.8 PPG — and those marks are +2.5% and +10.8 PPG above their season averages. The Camels stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Campbell wants to avenge a 77-74 loss at UNC-Wilmington back on February 3rd — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (887) and the Campbell Camels (888). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-24 |
Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
69-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). THE SITUATION: Coppin State (2-22) has lost eight games in a row after their 68-66 loss to Norfolk State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Howard (12-15) has won three of their last four games after their 78-72 victory against Morgan State as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are far away from being one of the best teams in college basketball — and it starts with their offense where they rank last in Division I in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank third to the bottom in Division I with their effective field goal percentage of 40.3. They only made 32.7% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss — and while I like to fade outlier shooting efforts like that in a team’s next game, that shooting performance was only tied for their sixth-lowest mark of the season. Coppin State has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They only scored 24 points in the first half on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where the adjusted efficiency numbers project them to score -10.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do when playing at home. They are only making 36.0% of their shots away from home including 26.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 53.3 Points-Per-Game. Coppin State has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. If there is one thing that the Eagles do well, it is force turnovers — they rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Bison are vulnerable in this area since they turn the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 350th in the nation. Taking away Howard’s scoring opportunities should keep the score of this game down. Coppin State also plays at a slow pace — their games average 66.4 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Howard has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to just 42.9% shooting including a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. And while the Bison are a good shooting team at home, they are going to lose possessions to this Eagles team because they turn the ball over in 22.4% of their possessions when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Howard has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have been favored by double-digits three previous times this season — and all three games finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Howard won the first meeting between these two teams on January 29th by an 81-66 score — but Coppin State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Eagles have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Kings v. Clippers UNDER 239 |
Top |
123-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Wright State v. Oakland OVER 159.5 |
Top |
96-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). THE SITUATION: Wright State (16-12) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 93-78 victory at Detroit Mercy as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Oakland (19-10) has won four games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 63-43 win at Robert Morris as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders nailed 53.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the fifth time in their last six games where they shot 50% or better from the field — and they have scored 85 or more points in four of their last five games. But they allowed the Titans to make 51.7% of their shots which was the third time in their last four games where their opponents made at least 50% of their shots. Wright State is an Over Machine because they shoot great and play at a fast pace but can’t stop anybody on the other end. The Raiders rank second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% — and they rank in the top 11 in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. But they also rank 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponents post a 56.6% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking 354th in the nation. Wright State ranks 28th in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession — and they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Raiders have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three contests. While this is their second game since last Saturday, they have also played 11 straight Overs when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay on the road where they average slightly more 73.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 17th in the nation. They make 51.8% of their shots on the road along with 41.0% of their 3-pointers (which leads the nation) resulting in 85.1 Points-Per-Game. But they allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 84.0 PPG. Wright State has played 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Oakland only made 34.5% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst shooting of the season — but they also held the Colonials to just 28.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort of their campaign. While that final score flew Under the 147-point total, the Grizzlies have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have played 15 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after winning four games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they made 47.6% of their shots including 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 82.2 PPG. They also average 69.2 adjusted possessions per game at home which is +1.9 possessions above their season average. But the Grizzlies defense takes a step back when they are playing at home. While Oakland ranks 146th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second in Horizon League play, those numbers drop to 253rd in the nation and eighth in the conference when they are playing at home. The collapse comes from their interior defense as they allow their guests to make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 308th in the nation — and Wright State ranks ninth in the nation by making 56.4% of their 2-pointers when playing away from home. Oakland has played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total in February.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders want to avenge a 74-60 upset loss at home to Oakland back on February 10th in their worst shooting game of the season where they made only 33.8% of their shots including just 5 of their 28 (17.9%) shots from behind the arc. Wright State has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149 |
Top |
68-92 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (12-17) has won two games in a row after their 89-70 victory at Pacific as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Francisco (21-7) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss at Saint Mary’s as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Waves held Pacific to just 41.9% shooting on Wednesday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last eight games. But Pepperdine continues to struggle with their half-court defense as they rank 350th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.2% — and they allow their opponents to make 54.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 327th. The Wave have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They have averaged a whopping 90 points in their last two games with both those contests combining for 160 points — and they have played 7 straight Overs after playing two games in a row where 155 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they allow their opponents to make 53.6% of their shots resulting in 84.4 Points-Per-Game. Pepperdine allows their opponents to nail 48.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 362nd in the nation. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 60.4% away from home ranks 362nd in the country. The Wave have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. They should be able to generate offense against the Dons tonight by getting to the free-throw line. Pepperdine ranks second in the West Coast Conference in getting to the charity stripe — and San Francisco ranks 295th in the nation and ninth in the West Coast Conference in putting their opponents on the line. The Wave have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has played 6 straight Overs at home after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dons are one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 19th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. Led by 6’9 Jonathan Mogbo, they should have their way inside against the weak interior defense of the Wave as they rank eighth in the nation by making 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. After playing their last two games on the road, San Francisco returns home where they make 52.1% of their shots resulting in 84.7 PPG. They also rank 50th in the nation by nailing a healthy 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco won the first meeting between these two teams by an 80-74 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 8th. Pepperdine has played 21 of their opportunities for revenge Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-24 |
Oregon v. Stanford OVER 150 |
|
78-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (835) and the Stanford Cardinal (836). THE SITUATION: Oregon (17-8) has won two of their last three games after their 60-58 victory at Oregon State as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Stanford (12-13) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after their 72-59 loss at Washington State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ducks held the Beavers to just 41.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 16 games. But Oregon only ranks 107th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win by three points or less — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total. Stanford has played 7 straight Overs at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cardinal has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they have played 12 of their 13 games Over the Total this season — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. They are making 51.5% of their shots on their home court resulting in 85.5 Points-Per-Game — and they host a Ducks team that allows 76.4 PPG when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Stanford has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Oregon has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. 8* CBB Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (835) and the Stanford Cardinal (836). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-18-24 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Temple OVER 154 |
|
77-83 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (837) and the Temple Owls (838). THE SITUATION: UTSA (8-17) has lost five games in a row after their 79-70 loss at Charlotte as a 13-point underdog on Thursday. Temple (8-17) has lost ten games in a row after their 80-68 loss at Florida Atlantic as a 19.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: There are 362 college basketball teams in Division I — and the Roadrunners rank 356th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed at least 79 points in eight straight games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in five or more games in a row. UTSA combines their porous defense with a fast pace — their games average 70.6 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 50th in the nation. They only made 35.8% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Roadrunners have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 6 straight Overs after losing or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are scoring 77.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing their opponents to nail 47.2% of their shots resulting in 88.2 PPG when they are away from home. UTSA has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 10 games over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. The Roadrunners launch tons of 3s — they rank second in the American Athletic Conference by taking 45.1% of their shots from 3-point range. Temple ranks third in the conference by launching 44.5% of their shots from behind the arc — and they average 28 shots downtown per game. UTSA has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game. The Owls have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after losing eight or more of their last ten games. Temple returns home where they are scoring 76.1 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season average. The Owls have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on their home court. Their play on defense has taken a step back lately as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 79.8 PPG which is +5.8 PPG above their season average. And while the Roadrunners score 78.9 PPG, Temple has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 77 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Owls have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in February — and the Roadrunners have played 19 of their last 11 games Over the Total in February. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (837) and the Temple Owls (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-17-24 |
Santa Clara v. San Diego OVER 152 |
|
82-69 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Santa Clara Broncos (809) and the San Diego Toreros (810). THE SITUATION: Santa Clara (16-10) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 79-53 win against Pacific as a 16-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (16-11) has won four games in a row after their 71-66 victory against Portland as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Broncos held the Tigers to just 32.2% shooting which was their best defensive effort of the season. But Santa Clara has played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. They have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a West Coast Conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. San Diego only made 40.0% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. But the Toreros have then played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home against a conference opponent. They had covered the point spread in six straight games before that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with one day of rest. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego won the first meeting between these two teams by a 70-59 score back on February 3rd as a 12.5-point road underdog. The Broncos have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Santa Clara Broncos (809) and the San Diego Toreros (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-17-24 |
NC-Greensboro v. Wofford OVER 139 |
Top |
58-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (18-8) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 76-61 win at The Citadel as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Wofford (15-11) has won two in a row and three of their last four contests after their 73-60 upset win at Mercer as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held the Bulldogs to just 39.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But UNC-Greensboro remains a below-average defensive team — they rank seventh in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But what this team does well is shoot 3s — they rank eighth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, in their last ten contests, they are nailing 42.3% of their 3-pointers, ranking third in the country. The Spartans have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 26 of their last 39 games on the road Over the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Their game against The Citadel finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are making 37.9% of their 3-pointers to help them score 72.1 Points-Per-Game. UNC-Greensboro has played 28 of their last 42 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Wofford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Terriers have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Wofford converted 10 of their 24 (41.7%) of their shots from behind the arc against the Bears on the heels of nailing 11 of their 26 (42.3%) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. And while the Terriers have not allowed more than 64 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. Despite these recent results, Wofford is not a great defensive team — they rank eighth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even worse for this matchup, they rank 329th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and conference rivals are nailing 37.5% of their 3s. UNC-Greensboro makes 10 shots from distance per game from 25 shots from behind the arc on average. The Terriers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more 3s per game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against opponents who make eight or more shots from behind the arc per game. Wofford is a good shooting team as well — they rank 38th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They return home where they are making 50.1% of their shots including 37.9% of their 3s resulting in 82.5 PPG. The Terriers have played 15 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans won the first meeting between these two teams by an 82-59 score as a 6-point home favorite back on January 20th — and Wofford has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-16-24 |
Siena v. St. Peter's UNDER 128.5 |
Top |
53-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). THE SITUATION: Siena (4-20) snapped their seven-game losing streak in a 68-63 victory at Manhattan as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Saint Peter’s (11-11) has lost four games in a row after their 64-62 loss to Fairfield as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only made 41.5% of their shots against the Jaspers — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last four games. They had not scored more than 61 points in their previous six games — and they only topped 52 points in five of those six contests. Siena is one of the worst-scoring teams in the country. They rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 353rd of the 362 teams in Division I with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. To make matters worse, they turn the ball over in 24.4% of their possessions, ranking second to last in the nation — so they do not even get a shot off in one of every four possessions. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while their game with Manhattan finished far below the 139.5 point total, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Siena stays on the road where they are only making 41.9% of their shots and 21.9% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points including five of these last six circumstances. Saint Peter’s made 41.8% of their shots against the Stags last week which was their best shooting performance in their last six contests — they had not made more than 38.3% of their shots in their previous five games. The Peacocks rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 355th with an effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. But this team can play defense — they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking second in that metric in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Critical in this matchup, they rank 24th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponents’ possessions — so Siena is likely to struggle to score much more than even 50 points in this one. Saint Peter’s has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have outshot their last two opponents by 11 and 14 attempts — and they played 19 of their last 21 games Under the Total after attempting at least 10 more shots from the field than their opponent in two straight games. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. Uncharacteristically, they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots from the field — but now they stay at home where they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while limiting their guests to only 63.7 PPG. But the Peacocks’ offense is even worse at home where they rank 359th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their 42.0% effective field goal percentage. Saint Peter’s makes only 37.1% of their shots including 29.9% of their 3-pointers when playing at home resulting in just 65.2 PPG. The Peacocks have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints average 67.0 adjusted possessions per game which is below the 67.7 national average — and the 18.6 seconds per possession that average ranks 307th in the nation. The Peacocks rank 341st in the nation in both their 63.8 adjusted possessions per game and the 19.4 seconds per possession they average. These two teams played on January 28th when Saint Peter’s won by a 63-52 score as a 10-point favorite — and Siena has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-24 |
Idaho State v. Eastern Washington OVER 144.5 |
Top |
82-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (11-14) has won three games in a row after their 68-65 victory as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Eastern Washington (16-8) has won three in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests after their 87-79 loss to Idaho as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — and they rank 19th in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. They should pour on the points tonight against a Bengals defense that ranks 273rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 332nd in the nation. Eastern Washington has scored 78 or more points in three straight games along with 177 combined points in their last two contests. The Eagles have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. They stay at home where they make 55.0% of their shots including 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 89.7 Points-Per-Game. Eastern Washington has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Idaho State has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. The Bengals had covered the point spread in their four previous contests — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Idaho State goes back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in February. They have also played 21 of their last 27 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Bengals have also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played four of their five games this season.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Eastern Washington’s 79-67 win on the road as a 5.5-point favorite on January 20th — and Idaho State has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-24 |
Idaho v. Eastern Washington OVER 147.5 |
|
79-87 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (791) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (792). THE SITUATION: Idaho (9-14) is on a two-game winning streak after their 61-45 upset victory at Sacramento State as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. Eastern Washington (15-8) has won two games in a row as well as 11 of their last 12 contests after their 90-77 victory at Portland State as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vandals had lost eight games in a row before pulling off two straight upset victories. They made 53.7% of their shots on Monday which was the third straight game where they made at least 50.9% of their shots. But the outlier performance in that game was holding Sacramento State to just 32.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 20 contests. Idaho has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.4% from the field. They rank 317th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Vandals have played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game that did not see more than 125 combined points. And while that game finished below the 132-point total, they have then played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They stay on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 48.7% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 74.3 Points-Per-Game. The Vandals have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog including all five of those circumstances this season. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Eastern Washington has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams winning 20-40% of their games. They only made 43.1% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 12 contests. They did still convert 13 of their 30 shots from behind the arc — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after making 13 or more shots from 3-point range in their last game. The Eagles rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.1% — and they rank in the top 22 in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. They face a Vandals team that ranks 332nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.4%. Eastern Washington also leads the Big Sky Conference in Adjusted Possessions per game and Average Possession Length in conference play. They have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a straight-up win in conference play — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are making 54.7% of their shots and 40.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 90.1 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 18 of their last 26 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho wants to avenge a 79-58 loss at home to Eastern Washington as a 7-point home underdog on January 13th — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho Vandals (791) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-24 |
Kennesaw State v. Lipscomb OVER 169.5 |
Top |
95-101 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). THE SITUATION: Kennesaw State (13-11) has lost five games in a row after their 85-69 loss at Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Lipscomb (15-10) has won two games in a row after their 90-88 win against Queens University as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls scored their fewest points in 22 contests in their loss on Thursday. Kennesaw State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss against an Atlantic Sun rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Owls rank 320th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have given up at least 85 points in five straight games. Kennesaw State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 81.5 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing their opponents to make 48.0% of their shots including 36.8% of their 3-pointers away from home which is resulting in 86.1 Points-Per-Game. Kennesaw State has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Lipscomb has scored 81 or more points in seven of their last nine games after nailing 52.2% of their shots on Thursday — and that was the fifth time in their last seven games that have shot 51.7% or better from the field. But the Bisons allowed the Royals to shoot 50% from the field as well which was the fifth time in their last seven games where their opponent shot 50% or better. In their last five games, their opponents are making 50.3% of their shots resulting in 81.4 PPG. Lipscomb has played 7 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after playing at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. On their home court, the Bisons are making 54.8% of their shots and 42.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.9 PPG. But they are giving up 77.1 PPG when playing at home where they rank 358th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Lipscomb has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is approaching the 170 mark for good reasons — both of these teams struggled to play defense while Kennesaw State plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Owls lead the nation by only averaging 14.0 seconds per possession. They rank sixth in the nation with 73.9 adjusted average possessions per game — and that mark rises to 76.3 adjusted possessions per game when away from home, ranking second in the nation. Lipscomb plays at above-average pace as well — so they will be happy to accommodate the fast pace given how good they are on offense. The Bisons rank 62nd in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession. They rank 108th in the nation with 69.0 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 70.6 adjusted possessions per game when they are playing at home. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-24 |
Dayton v. VCU UNDER 135.5 |
|
47-49 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (885) and the VCU Rams (886). THE SITUATION: Dayton (19-3) has won three straight games as well as 16 of their last 17 contests after their 94-79 victory at Saint Joseph’s as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. VCU (15-8) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 75-60 win at Fordham as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Flyers nailed 56.9% of their shots on Tuesday in what was their best shooting effort of the season. But Dayton has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They also allowed the Hawks to make 48.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 18 contests. The Flyers still rank second in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Now they stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. VCU made 51.0% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting performance in their last 16 contests. And despite holding the Rams to just 38.3% shooting, that was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. VCU has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning on the road in their last game. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning two straight games against A-10 rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Flyers have played 4 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 130s — and the Rams have played 24 of their last 37 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 8* CBB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Dayton Flyers (885) and the VCU Rams (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-24 |
Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 231.5 |
|
117-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (29-21) has won three games in a row after their 138-100 win against Toronto as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. Los Angeles (34-15) has won four games in a row and nine of their last ten contests after their 149-144 win at Atlanta as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans made 51.0% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in four or more games in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last contest. New Orleans has also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by 20 or more points on their home court. They have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while that game finished Over the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Pelicans go back on the road where they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Los Angeles made 58.4% of their shots on Monday against the Hawks in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Clippers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 145 or more points in their last game. They did allow Atlanta to shoot 53.7% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. That game concluded a long seven-game road trip — so this team may not have worked their hardest on the defensive end of the court against a Hawks team that does not play great defense. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where 225 or more combined points were scored. They return home to play their eighth game since January 26th — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when playing for the eighth or more time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have played 39 of their last 65 games Under the Total at home at Crypto.com Arena — and they have played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles held the Pelicans to an effective field goal percentage of 39.9% in a 111-95 win on the road which was New Orleans' worst offensive performance of the season — and now Zion Williamson is questionable to play tonight with a foot injury. The Clippers make 49.7% of their shots and lead the NBA with a 39.9% clip from behind the arc. The Pelicans have played 24 of their last 33 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make 46% or more of their shots — and they have played 18 of their last 22 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who are shooting 36% or better from 3-point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-24 |
Kings v. Cavs UNDER 234.5 |
|
110-136 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (29-19) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 123-115 upset victory at Chicago as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cleveland (31-16) has won five games in a row as well as 13 of their last 14 contests with their 117-101 victory at San Antonio as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 50% of their shots on Saturday which came on the heels of shooting 56.7% from the field in their previous game at Indiana — but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Sacramento has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after winning games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning their last two games away from home. In their last five games, the Kings have not allowed more than 115 points in four of those contests. They have held their last five opponents to 46.3% shooting resulting in 112.3 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -2.1% and -5.3 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento is playing at a slower pace on the road where they average 103.1 possessions per game — down -2.1 possessions from their season average. The Kings also play better defense on the road where they are posting an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 113.7 as opposed to their 118.0 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Sacramento has played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 31 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Cleveland raced out to a 67-45 halftime lead against the Spurs on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 20 or more points in their game. The Cavaliers have also played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing their two previous games Under the Total. Cleveland has not allowed more than 108 points in four of their last five games — and they have held those five opponents to 43.8% shooting resulting in 108.2 PPG. The defense certainly got a boost with the return of center Evan Mobley in their last three games. The Cavaliers have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.3 in their last 15 contests which is the best mark in the league during that span. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 132-120 upset loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog back on November 23rd. The Cavaliers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (559) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-24 |
North Dakota State v. North Dakota OVER 147 |
|
58-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (709) and the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (710). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (10-12) has won two of their last three games after their 74-73 upset win in overtime at South Dakota State as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. North Dakota (13-10) has won five games in a row after their 95-81 win at South Dakota as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison rank 16th in the nation by making 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc. North Dakota State has played 4 straight road games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last three days. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to make 48.3% of their shots resulting in 80.5 Points-Per-Game. The Bison have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. North Dakota has played 10 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total after beating a Summit League rival on the road. They have also played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits against a conference rival. Additionally, the Fighting Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a contest where both teams scored 75 or more points. They have covered the point spread in five straight games — and they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. They return home where they are making 46.9% of their shots resulting in 81.7 PPG. North Dakota has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. The Fighting Hawks have cranked up their scoring lately as they are making 47.7% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 86.0 PPG in those contests — and that is +10.6 PPG and +4.0% above their season averages. But North Dakota’s defense has slipped in those games as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which is +1.9% above their season opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.8%. The Fighting Hawks have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams struggle on defense — North Dakota and North Dakota State rank 303rd and 313th respectively in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Fighting Hawks have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (709) and the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-24 |
Ohio v. Kent State OVER 146.5 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). THE SITUATION: Ohio (9-10) had their two-game losing streak snapped in a 67-58 loss at Akron as an 8-point underdog on Tuesday. Kent State (10-9) has won two of their last three games after their 90-84 upset win at Bowling Green in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats only made 38.9% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Ohio still leads the Mid-American Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% in conference play — so they should shoot better tonight. The Bobcats have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after failing to cover the point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Toal after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. It is usually the other end of the court where Ohio struggles — they rank 265th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In conference play, their opponents are nailing 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc which is the worst mark in the Mid-American Conference. Now they face a Golden Flashes squad that ranks 30th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers — and they lead the MAC by nailing 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. Kent State takes 22 shots from 3-point land per game — and Ohio has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who average 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game. The Bobcats allow their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots resulting in 77.8 Points-Per-Game which is +6.5 PPG above their season average. Ohio has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Kent State held the Falcons to just 43.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Golden Flashes have allowed at least 76 points in five straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Kent State has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They return home where they are making 48.4% of their shots resulting in 84.2 PPG which is +5.7 PPG above their season average. The Golden Flashes have played 7 straight Overs when playing on their home court. They do allow their guests to make 47.4% of their shots resulting in 72.4 PPG which is +2.8 PPG above their season average. Kent State ranks 313th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and that mark has risen to a 55.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Flashes have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.9% of their shots resulting in 80.6 PPG. Ohio shoots 45.7% from the field while taking 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Kent State has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Golden Flashes have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-24 |
Northern Colorado v. Eastern Washington OVER 161.5 |
Top |
74-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (11-7) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 90-61 win against Portland State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Eastern Washington (11-7) has won seven straight games after their 79-67 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have scored 77 or more points in eight straight games — and they have scored 83 or more points five times during that stretch. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Bears have played 6 straight Overs after a win on the road against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a win on the road after a victory on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their victory against the Vikings finished Under the 158.5-point total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Bears can score points — but they struggle on the other end of the court as they rank 302nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They go back on the road where they rank 338th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado allows their opponents to make 39.2% of their shots when away from home resulting in 84.5 Points-Per-Game. They do rank 18th in the nation by making 56.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have a 48.1% field goal percentage on the road resulting in 81.5 PPG. The Bears have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. Eastern Washington has scored at least 79 points in each of their seven-game winning streak. The Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row against conference foes. They have covered the point spread in nine straight games — and they have then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Eastern Washington ranks seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%. They rank tenth in the nation by making 39.9% of their 3-pointers — and that mark rises to an incredible 54.5% clip behind the arc when playing at home which is the highest mark in the nation for home-court 3-point shooting. The Eagles make 56.8% of their shots at home resulting in 93.8 PPG. Eastern Washington has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Northern Colorado averages eight made 3s per game — and the Eagles have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game. Eastern Washington averages nine made 3s per game — and the Bears have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a fast pace. The Eagles rank 61st in the nation by averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — and they rank 76th in the country with 70.1 adjusted possessions per game. Northern Colorado is even quicker as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 15.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 52nd in the country by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Bears have played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-24 |
Chattanooga v. Wofford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
79-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (12-7) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five after their 81-74 win at East Tennessee State as a pick ‘em on Sunday. Wofford (11-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-59 loss at UNC-Greensboro as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mocs scored at least 80 points for the eighth time this season with their victory over the weekend. Chattanooga has played 19 of their 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. This is a game against two teams who love to launch 3s — and both squads average 10 made 3s per game. The Mocs rank third in the nation by taking 50.7% of their shots from behind the arc. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests. They rank 82nd in the nation by making 35.2% of their 3-pointers away from home — they are scoring 77.2 Points-Per-Game overall on the road. But Chattanooga’s defense falters on the road — they are allowing their opponents to nail 45.4% of their shots away from home resulting in 80.1 PPG which is +9.6 PPG above their season average. The Mocs have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored on the road up to six points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 145 to 149.5. Wofford has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total against opponents who make at least 8 3-pointers per game. The Terriers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last seven days. Wofford ranks 31st in the nation by taking 44.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Mocs have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road against teams who average at least 8 or more 3s per game. The Terriers only made 37.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games and tied for the lowest shooting performance in their last 14 contests. They return home where they rank 41st in the nation by nailing 40.2% of their 3-pointers. They are nailing 49.2% of their shots at home resulting in 85.7 PPG which is +8.1 PPG above their season average. Wofford has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Defense is an issue for the Terriers who have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots. They also rank 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3-pointers — and their guests are nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Wofford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Diego OVER 150.5 |
Top |
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (8-10) snapped their two-game with a 93-78 victory against Pacific as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (10-8) has lost three games in a row after their 83-63 loss at home to San Francisco as a 10-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave was never a good defensive team this season — and they are getting crushed on that end of the court now that conference play has started. Pepperdine has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last three games in conference action — and West Coast Conference opponents are nailing 51.5% of their shots resulting in 80.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wave ranks 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 333rd in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 54.2%. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as their opponents are making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 336th in the nation. Pepperdine has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 75 or more points in three straight contests. The Wave have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they scored 85 or more points. Pepperdine can score with points — Michael Ajayi leads the WCC in scoring while Houston Mallet has potential NBA talent. The Wave is making 45.6% of their shots in conference play resulting in a respectable 75.6 PPG. But now they go back on the road where their home hosts make 54.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.3 PPG. Pepperdine has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total in conference play. San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss at home by double-digits. The Toreros have allowed their last three opponents to make 51.7% or more of their shots — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. San Diego is not a great defensive team either — they rank 169th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are perhaps now getting exposed in conference play. In their first three games against West Coast Conference rivals, they are allowing them to make 53.9% of their shots resulting in 88.3 PPG. The Toreros play in high-possession games as well — they rank 41st in the nation with 72.1 adjusted possessions per game. Their opponents only average 16.1 seconds per possession with the ball which is the sixth quickest in the nation. San Diego is scoring 73.4 PPG at home — and they should be able to make 3-pointers against this Waves perimeter defense since they rank 112th in the nation by making 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Toreros have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego won both meetings last season with both games seeing 165 and 181 combined points scored. Pepperdine has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-24 |
Rockets v. Pistons OVER 225 |
|
112-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). THE SITUATION: Houston (18-18) has lost two games in a row after their 124-119 loss at Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Detroit (3-35) has lost six games in a row after their 130-108 loss at home against San Antonio as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Bulls to just 44.2% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Despite that performance, Houston’s play on that end of the court has collapsed since Dillon Brooks injured his abdomen on December 26th. The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in three of their last four games. Houston has played 25 of their last 39 road games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. Detroit allowed the Spurs to make 52.1% of their shots which was actually the lowest opponent field goal percentage posted against them in their last three games. The Pistons have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing each of their last three opponents to make 47% or better from the field. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Detroit has not covered the point spread in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons look to avenge a 136-111 loss in Houston against the Rockets on January 1st — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (505) and the Detroit Pistons (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-23 |
Washington State v. Utah UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
58-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 66-61 victory against Boise State as a 2.5-point favorite on December 21st. Utah (9-2) has won six games in a row with their 85-43 win against Bellarmine as a 20.5-point favorite on December 20th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars have played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They play stout defense for head coach Kyle Smith — they are holding their opponents to 37.3% shooting resulting in 62.5 Points-Per-Game. Washington State will slow this game down — they average 17.3 seconds per possession, ranking 179th in Adjusted Pace while their opponents take 18.0 seconds per possession, ranking 302nd in Adjusted Pace. The Cougars rank fifth in the nation in Opponent’s Effective Field Goal Percentage of 42.5% — and they rank in the top-19 in the country in opponent 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting. They also rank 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.7% of their missed shots. And their block rate of 15.5% of their opponent’s shot attempts ranks 12th in the country. Washington State has been a bit unlucky with their opponents’ free throws as well — their opponents have made 76.5% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 342nd in the nation. The Utes only make 71.3% of their free throws, so the Cougars should get some points back in that area tonight. Overall, Washington State ranks 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 24th in the nation in that metric when playing away from home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 93.8. But while the Cougars rank 89th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 197th in that category when away from home with a 101.6 efficiency mark. The 67.2 PPG they score away from home is a -10.2 net PPG drop from their overall average. Washington State has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Utah has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop by -1.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing at home where they rank 56th in the nation. But the Utes are holding their opponents to 37.8% shooting resulting in 63.2 PPG with their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 38th in the nation — and that ranking improving to 20th in the country with that mark lowering to 89.8. Utah ranks eighth in the nation in Opponent’s Free Throw Rate. The Utes have held their last three opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing three straight opponents to shoot better than 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Washington State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-23 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 237.5 |
Top |
128-114 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-23 |
New Mexico State v. Stephen F Austin OVER 144.5 |
|
72-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (625) and the Stephen F. Austin (626). THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (5-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 73-72 loss to New Mexico as a 14.5-point underdog on Friday. Stephen F. Austin (5-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 78-70 upset loss at Wyoming as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have been one of the worst defensive teams in the nation so far this season. They rank 289th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 318th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.5% — and their perimeter defense has been the biggest issue with their opponents nailing 39.4% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 351st in the nation. New Mexico State also ranks 318th in defensive foul rate with their opponents sporting a 54.5% free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Aggies go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to 49.1% shooting resulting in 89.2 Points-Per-Game. They have played 3 of their last 4 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range. On the other end of the court, New Mexico State has been playing better as they are making 50.7% of their shots resulting in 75.6 PPG. The best thing the Aggies do on offense is get to the free throw line — they rank 47th in the nation with a free throw attempt rate to field goal attempt rate of 39.7%. Now they play a Lumberjacks team that ranks 355th in the nation with a defensive free rate ratio of 50.6%. New Mexico State has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. Stephen F. Austin has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. The Lumberjacks have also played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. Furthermore, Stephen F. Austin has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are struggling on offense — but they should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. They rank 70th in the nation by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots — and now they face an Aggies team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 217th in the nation. Stephen F. Austin returns home where they have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite in all situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Lumberjacks have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And while Stephen F. Austin is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 PPG, the Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (625) and the Stephen F. Austin (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-15-23 |
Lakers v. Spurs OVER 233.5 |
Top |
115-129 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-10-23 |
Michigan v. Iowa OVER 158 |
Top |
90-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-5) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after a 78-75 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 90-65 loss at Iowa State as an 8-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After opening the season by playing good team defense, the play on that end of the court has fallen apart for the Wolverines. After the Hoosiers made 51.7 of their shots against them, Michigan has allowed four of their last six opponents to make at least 50.0% of their shots. Their last five opponents are making 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 77.2 Points-Per-Game. The Wolverines rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The weakest link has been their perimeter defense as their opponents are nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 349th in the nation. Michigan has remained competitive in most of their games because of their balanced offensive attack. They rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their balanced scoring attack — they rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. They are making 49.1% of their shots including 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc to generate 81.2 PPG. The Wolverines have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. And while this is Michigan’s second game since last Saturday, they have played 28 of their latest 39 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. Iowa only made 38.6% of their shots against the Cyclones — and that was on the heels of their 38.5% shooting effort at Purdue in their previous game. The Cyclones have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while Iowa State has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are making 51.1% of their shots including 39.2% of their 3-pointers which is resulting in 99.7 PPG. Facing the porous Wolverines' defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this Hawkeyes team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Iowa struggles on the other end of the court where they rank 147th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which has resulted in those five opponents to average 81.2 PPG. The Hawkeyes have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in Big Ten play — and Michigan has played 30 of their last 42 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-23 |
Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 215.5 |
|
109-121 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 115-110 upset loss at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (6-6) has won two games in a row after their 108-100 win at home against Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Pelicans to nail 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have played four straight Unders, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders this season — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Denver is scoring only 107.8 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -6.3 PPG below their season average. They are holding their home hosts to just 106.2 PPG. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. After making 56.0% of their shots at Portland on Wednesday, the Cavaliers shot 51.2% from the field against the Pistons. The Cavs have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have played 4 of their 5 home games Under the Total this season. Their 106.4 PPG scoring average at home is -3.9 PPG below their season average — and they are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG at home which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. They have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are missing key scorers with Jamal Murray out with a hamstring injury for the Nuggets and Donovan Mitchell out with a hamstring injury for Cleveland. The Cavs’ Caris LeVert is also questionable with a knee injury. Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-23 |
Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 218.5 |
|
100-106 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has won six games in a row after their 107-104 upset victory against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-7) has lost six games in a row after their 111-108 loss at Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets held the Nuggets to 46.2% shooting which was the opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — and Denver’s 104 points were the most points they allowed in that five-game stretch. First-year head coach Ime Udoka has this young team playing great defense. They added Dillon Brooks via free agency who made the All-Defensive second team for Memphis last year. They also added Fred VanVleet in free agency who provides the team veteran leadership with an NBA championship. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to 43.4% shooting which has resulted in only 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Houston has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. They also have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by six points were less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. The Rockets are scoring 111.0 PPG this season — but their scoring drops by -7.0 PPG by averaging just 104.0 PPG when on the road. Los Angeles continues to struggle as they attempt to incorporate James Harden into their rotation. He is working off some rust after not playing in the preseason. They rank 29th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since acquiring him from Philadelphia. With Harden on the court, they are playing at a slower pace to accommodate his tendency to dribble the ball in isolation against a defender before deciding to launch a jumper or drive the lane — they rank 26th in pace with him. The Clippers are making just 44.7% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 105.0 PPG. But after Los Angeles allowed the Nuggets to make 53.4% of their shots on Tuesday, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season, they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 43.6% shooting and just 100.2 PPG. They have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (541) and the Los Angeles Clippers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-17-23 |
San Diego State v. St. Mary's UNDER 131 |
|
79-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (877) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (878). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (2-1) rebounded from their loss to BYU with an 88-76 victory against Long Beach State as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Saint Mary’s (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 61-57 loss to Weber State as a 15.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the Continental Tires Main Event.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aztecs beat the Beach despite allowing them to make 50.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed so far this season. This team consistently is one of the best defensive teams in the nation under head coach Brian Dutcher. They currently rank 15th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency even after that game on Tuesday. San Diego State has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 33 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also played 10 of the last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Saint Mary’s offense stalled against the Wildcats on Sunday as they scored only eight points in the final ten minutes of that game. After ranking 44th in the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency last season, the Gaels rank only 77th in that metric so far this season. But this team will continue to play tough defense for head coach Randy Bennett — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their ability to stop their opponents starts with their size in the middle with seven-footer Harry Wessels and 6’10 Mitchell Saxen who will contend for the West Coast Conference Defensive Player of the Year award. Saint Mary’s has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They did outrebound Weber State by a 41-26 margin — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by +15 or more boards. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. As always under Bennett, this team plays at a slow pace — the Gaels rank 330th in the nation with adjusted tempo of just 66.9 possessions per game.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on a neutral court last December 10th with the Gaels winning by a 68-61 score with the Total set at 126.5. The Aztecs are replacing their leading scorer from last season Matt Bradley who led them with 13 points in that game. San Diego State has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set from 130 to 139.5. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (877) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-23 |
Kentucky v. Kansas UNDER 149 |
|
84-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (663) and the Kansas Jayhawks (664). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 81-61 victory against Texas A&M Commerce as a 29-point favorite on Friday. Kansas (2-0) has won their first two games of the season with their 99-61 victory at home against Manhattan as a 36-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats have a young team with an average age of 19 years old. After two warmups against New Mexico State by an 86-46 score before their triumph on Friday, the challenge gets much stronger tonight against a national championship contender. Kentucky has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Kentucky has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two straight contests. The Wildcats' lack of size may cause some trouble for them when trying to score against this veteran Jayhawks team that ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach John Calipari brought in the top-ranked freshman class this year which includes two intriguing point guards in D.J. Wagner and Rob Dillingham — but this contest will test their cohesion since they are both shoot-first guards who are used to having the ball in their hands. Calipari does have his young team playing good defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are only taking 39.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 137th in the nation — and now they face a Kansas team that ranks 12th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 38.2% shooting inside the arc. The Jayhawks have looked sharp on offense so far this season — and they have made 10 and 13 shots from behind the arc in their opening two games. Jayhawks nation is excited about Hunter Dickinson transferring over from Michigan — but they may be overrating the seven-footers shooting ability from behind the arc. Head coach Bill Self has to figure out how to best deploy Dickinson either inside or outside — and this game may present some growing pains in that learning curve. Kansas did struggle with their offense in the preseason against Illinois and Fort Hays. They have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after nailing 10 or more 3-pointers in two straight games. And while the Jayhawks have seen 155 or more combined points in two straight games, they have then played 40 of their last 63 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 155 or more combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Calipari does not have his young team running and gunning as they rank 263rd in the nation in adjusted possessions per game. The Wildcats' defense is holding their opponents to averaging 20.3 seconds per possession which is the 355th slowest opponent tempo in the nation. The Jayhawks’ opponents are averaging 18.9 seconds per possession which ranks 315th slowest in the nation. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total after Kansas’ 77-68 upset victory as a 2.5-point underdog on January 28th. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (663) and the Kansas Jayhawks (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-23 |
Magic v. Nets UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
104-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-23 |
Tennessee v. Wisconsin UNDER 133 |
|
80-70 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (861) and the Wisconsin Badgers (862). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-0) opened their season with an 80-42 win against Tennessee Tech as a 32.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Wisconsin (1-0) tipped off their season with a 105-76 victory against Arkansas State as a 14-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams come off big offensive efforts recently — but these remain two teams who typically play at slow paces. Wisconsin averaged 19.7 seconds per possession last year, ranking 349th slowest in the nation last season. On defense, their opponents averaged 18.3 seconds per possession, ranking 322nd slowest in the nation. Overall, the Badgers ranked 337th in Adjusted Tempo last year. Tennessee ranked 288th in Adjusted Tempo last season with their offense ranking 247th on offense and 279th on defense. The Volunteers made some waves with their high-scoring 89-89 exhibition victory at Michigan State back on September 10th — and their offense was on display with their victory on Wednesday. But Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played a decisive 54 of their last 86 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. And while the Volunteers raced out to a 41-12 halftime lead, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after taking a 20 or more point lead at halftime in their last contest. Don’t overlook the defensive effort of Tennessee on Wednesday as they held the Golden Eagles to just 27.5% shooting. The Volunteers have become one of the best defensive teams in the nation under head coach Rich Barnes. After ranking fifth and then third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in 2020-21 and 2021-22, Tennessee led the nation in that metric last season. Defense travels — and the Volunteers have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored by six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Wisconsin reached the century mark in points for the first time since December 13th, 2018 with their victory against the Red Wolves on Wednesday. The Badgers had not even reached 90 points since November 27th, 2020. Their scoring outburst may have more to do with Arkansas State’s frenetic style of play under new head coach Bryan Hodgson who previously served as an assistant under Alabama head coach Nate Oaks who pushes the pace. The Red Wolves' defense was reckless at times in that game as well — they are a team that needs to work some things out on that end of the court. Wisconsin nailed 6 of their 12 shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have played 51 of their last 82 games Under the Total after a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-pointers. And while they took a 56-41 lead into halftime, the Badgers have then played 5 straight Unders after holding a 15 or more-point lead at halftime of their last game. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 75 or more points. Wisconsin is a strong defensive team as well under head coach Greg Guard — they ranked 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is known for getting into rock fights against quality non-conference opponents — they beat Maryland by a 56-53 score last December and lost in overtime to Texas Tech by a 57-52 score two years ago. The Volunteers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Badgers have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers (861) and the Wisconsin Badgers (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-08-23 |
Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 216 |
Top |
101-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
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At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-06-23 |
Warriors v. Pistons OVER 223.5 |
|
120-109 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Golden State (5-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-104 loss at Cleveland as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 120-106 loss to Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors only made 36.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. With Draymond Green questionable to play with an ankle injury, they may be without their best defensive player. But this team should shoot much better tonight — they are making 48.0% of their shots and 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc in their five games on the road which is translating into 120.6 Points-Per-Game. Golden State has played 14 of their last 19 games when playing on the road for the second time in two days. This is their third game on the road since Friday — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing on the road for the third time in four days. Additionally, they have played 32 of their last 50 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total in the first half of the season. The Warriors have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit got whistled for 23 fouls against the Suns on Saturday while only drawing 13 personal fouls — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after committing ten or more personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after losing three games in a row. And in their last 47 games when on a four-game losing streak, they have played 31 of these games Over the Total. After starting the season playing better defense than last year under first-year head coach Monty Williams, they have since taken a step back. In their last five games, Detroit is allowing 116.2 PPG on 48.0% shooting. They have not covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Pistons are dealing with some injuries with Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris, and Isaiah Livers that have kept them off the court this season — and now Joe Harris is out tonight, Alec Burks is doubtful, and Jadey Ivey is questionable with an illness. Detroit’s depth will be challenged tonight — and that will not help their defensive effort. But with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duran, the Pistons will score their share of points. They have scored 110.6 PPG in their last five games despite these injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-12-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 |
|
89-94 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have had an underrated defense for much of the season — and they are demonstrating this aspect of their game now after holding the Heat to just 42.4% shooting which has resulted in 98.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami has not shot better than 32% from behind the arc in three of the four games in the NBA Finals. Denver has made at least 48.2% of their shots in five straight games since only making 43.8% of their shots in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have also played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver returns home to Bell Arena where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by ten or more points at home.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
109-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 214.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 218.5 |
|
93-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-23 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
103-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-23 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 |
|
97-110 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots. To be fair to Miami, Boston did finally overachieve with their shooting relative to league expectations. Given the shot quality statistics, the Celtics would have typically scored 107 points — so they exceeded that baseline by nine points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 100 points. They have also played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Point guard Gabe Vincent has been ruled out for tonight’s game after he twisted his ankle in Tuesday’s game. Miami will miss his scoring as he has averaged 17.5 Points-Per-Game in this series. Look for head coach Erik Spoelstra to slow things down tonight and make it a Jimmy Butler game where perhaps they can steal yet another playoff game in the fourth quarter. If that Spoelstra plan fails, then the Heat will probably call off the proverbial dogs and conserve their energies for Game Six back at home — and that will help our Under play (in the end). Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout games. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. The Celtics have also played 8 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* NBA Miami-Boston TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-23-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
116-99 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-22-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
113-111 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-21-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5 |
|
102-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
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At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin in the final 12 minutes to give that game away. Boston has dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series — and when they have put themselves in similar predicaments, they usually respond with increased focus and intensity on the defensive end of the court. After losing Game Five at home to Philadelphia to trail by a 3-2 margin in that series, they held the 76ers to 87.0 Points-Per-Game in Games Six and Seven of that series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home. Miami has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Heat have excelled on the defensive end of the court when playing at home in the postseason. They have held their five opponents to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 98.4 Points-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-20-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 222.5 |
|
119-108 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Los Angeles Lakers (540) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (63-32) has won four straight games after their 108-103 victory at home as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games while falling behind by an 0-2 margin in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well.
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05-18-23 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 |
|
103-108 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-32) outlasted the Lakers in a high-scoring opening game with their 132-126 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (52-44) has now lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the high-scoring Game One which saw 258 combined points, the books have bumped up the total into the high-220s for Game Two after Tuesday’s game closed in the 223 range. The Nuggets did stun the Lakers by making 54.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 points in their last game. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Denver made 53.7% of their shots en route to 125 points in their closeout Game Six against Phoenix — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Denver played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Lakers to make 54.8% of their shots. The Nuggets stay at home for Game Two where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Los Angeles’ 54.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 18 contests. And by allowing Denver to nail 54.9% of their shots, the Lakers played their worst defensive game in their last 48 contests. Head coach Marvin Ham did make an adjustment in the second half by moving Anthony Davis off from defending Nikola Jokic with Rui Hamichura coming off the bench to guard the Joker. After giving up 72 points in the first half, they held the Nuggets to just 60 points in the second half including a mere 24 points in the final quarter. They posted an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 103.0 in the second half with Hachimura on the court. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. The Lakers got outrebounded by a 47 to 30 margin in Game One — and they have played all 5 of their games Under the Total this season after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their previous game. And while the Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 16 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver came out with tons of adrenaline and pushed the pace that was at a blistering 102 possessions per 48-minute rate. Things slowed down in the second half with a pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes. Look for tonight’s game to resemble that second-half pace with the Nuggets slowing down a bit while adjusting to Davis protecting the rim rather than defending Jokic. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-17-23 |
Heat v. Celtics OVER 210 |
|
123-116 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat comes off a low-scoring game where they only made 40.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Knicks to 38.0% shooting, they have played their best defensive effort in their last three games. Miami has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have paled 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boston made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Celtics did hold the 76ers to 36.1% and 37.3% field goal percentage in the final two games of that series — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 39% shooting in two straight games. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Boston Over the Total. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-14-23 |
76ers v. Celtics UNDER 203 |
Top |
88-112 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-12-23 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
101-122 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-11-23 |
Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213 |
|
95-86 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Facing the prospects of elimination, they should play harder on defense tonight. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 18 of their last 27 Game Sixes in a playoff series Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. But they have not shot better than 46.2% in five of their last nine contests. The 76ers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the playoffs when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-23 |
Heat v. Knicks OVER 209 |
|
103-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-101 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (52-39) has lost the last two games and now looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a point spread victory. Miami has also played a decisive 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. New York has played 28 of their last 46 games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 straight Overs when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/ U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-09-23 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
102-118 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-08-23 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 |
|
101-104 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-43) has lost three of their last five games after their 127-97 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (50-42) has won five of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Lakers to make 52.5% of their shots. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lakers had their best shooting effort in this series by making 52.5% of their shots — and they were even more impressive behind the arc by nailing 15 of their 31 shots (48%) from 3-point land. But Los Angeles only makes 34.3% of their shots from behind the arc so they are not likely to replicate that effort. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Lakers have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in 14 days.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles owned a 37-17 advantage in free throw attempts in Game Three. They have played 28 of their last 41 games at home Under the Total after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent took 20 or more shots from the charity stripe. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-08-23 |
Knicks v. Heat OVER 206 |
Top |
101-109 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 105-86 loss on the road to the Heat as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Miami (51-41) has won five of their last six games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks could not hit the side of a barn on Saturday as they only made 34.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 79 games. Admittedly, New York is not an offensive juggernaut. But after missing 32 of their 42 shots from behind the arc, if the Knicks can simply match their 34.8% season clip from 3-point range, this game should finish Over the Total. That was the second-worst scoring result all season for New York as well. After scoring only 85 points against Brooklyn on November 9th, they responded by scoring 121, 135, and 118 points in their next three games. The Knicks did continue to play outstanding defense as they held the Heat to just 38.9% shooting — and that was the best defensive effort in their last five games. Realistically, the Knicks cannot expect to do much better than that on the defensive end of the court — and Miami still scored 105 points. New York has not covered the point spread in any of the three games in this series — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Miami’s 38.9% field goal percentage was the worst shooting performance in their last 43 games. They only made 7 of their 32 shots (21.9%) from behind the arc. After a subpar regular season in their 3-point shooting, the Heat regained their shooting touch from last season as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs, the second-best mark of all teams in the postseason. Jimmy Butler returned to the court and scored 26 points — so while he is listed as questionable again tonight, that seems to be merely a formality. By holding New York to 34.1% shooting, Miami enjoyed their best defensive game in terms of their opponent’s field goal percentage all season. But the Heat are allowing +3.7 more points per possession in this series when Butler is on the court — so his presence helps the Over. Miami has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other in Miami Over the Total despite Game Three finishing Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (541) and the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 |
|
124-129 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Phoenix Suns (540) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (59-31) was on a three-game winning streak before their 121-114 loss on the road to the Suns as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Phoenix (50-40) won their first game in this series while earning their fifth victory in their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite Friday’s game going Over the Total, the Under is still 9-4-2 in the Nuggets’ last 15 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver is not as efficient with their shooting when playing away from home. They posted an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 50% on the road in Game Three which was far below their 55% eFG in the playoffs this postseason. And while the Suns are making 47.0% of their shots this season, the Nuggets have played 37 of their last 64 games Under the Total against teams making 46% or more of their shots. Getting Game Three four days after Game Two was a big break for Kevin Durant and Devin Booker who have been playing more than 40 minutes per game in the postseason. They both had monster games on Friday for the Suns. Booker scored 47 points. Durant added 39 points. But Booker played 41:37 minutes and Durant was on the floor for 43:31 minutes. Now this duo only has a day of rest — and Paul remains out with his groin injury. The problem Phoenix has is that they lack a Plan B offensive strategy if Booker and Durant are not on fire. Their supporting cast made only 16 of 39 shots (41%) from the field and nailed only 3 of 15 (20%) shots from behind the arc. The Suns have played 11 of their last 18 games at home when favored by up to six points. They have also played 5 of their last seven Game Fours in a playoff series Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 8* NBA Denver-Phoenix TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Phoenix Suns (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-02-23 |
Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 |
|
117-112 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-41) has won three of their last four games after their 128-125 win against Memphis in Game Six of their opening-round series on Friday. Golden State (48-41) has won four of their last five games after their 120-100 upset win at Sacramento in the seventh game of that series on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers nailed 53.8% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 contests — so they are likely to see some regression. And while they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Grizzlies to 30.2% shooting, their commitment to defense should continue in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles lead the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since the trade deadline when they reshuffled their team. The Lakers have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points at home — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 30 or more points. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest — and they have played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Golden State has played 22 of their last 30 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. The Warriors return home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Lakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Semifinals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-30-23 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
120-100 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (47-41) had won three games in a row in this series before their 118-89 upset loss to the Kings as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento (51-37) forced a climactic seventh game in this best-of-seven series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings played one of their best defensive games of the season by holding the Warriors under 100 points. They limited Golden State to just 37.2% shooting which was a season-low for the reigning NBA champions. Head coach Mike Brown will implore his young team to maintain that type of effort on the defensive end of the court in this Game Seven. But Sacramento only made 40.4% of their shots on Friday in that elimination game — and I do not expect a significant improvement on that mark in this Game Seven with the pressure on this team that lacks deep playoff experience. As it is, the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Sacramento has also played 5 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 11 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival, they have played their next 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home by double-digits. The Under is also 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in Sacramento. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (505) and the Sacramento Kings (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-30-23 |
Heat v. Knicks OVER 207.5 |
|
108-101 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (501) and the New York Knicks (502) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (49-40) has pulled off three straight upset victories to defeat the Bucks in five games after their 128-126 victory as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (51-36) eliminated the Cavaliers in five games after upsetting them in Cleveland as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat upset the Bucks in Game Five despite only making 45.5% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Heat have also played 4 straight Overs when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also played 4 straight Overs after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 6 straight Overs. New York shot 43.5% from the field on Wednesday to close out that series despite it being the worst shooting effort in their last three contests. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: New York won three of the four games between these teams in the regular season after a 101-92 victory at home as a 5-point favorite on March 29th. Miami has played 34 of their last 56 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (501) and the New York Knicks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-23 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 |
|
107-125 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-30) has won four games in a row after their 136-130 win against the Los Angeles Clippers that ended that series in five games. Denver (57-30) has won five of their last six games after their 112-109 victory against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday that completed that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Denver should tighten things up tonight on the defensive end of the court. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 33 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And they have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Phoenix made 54.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Suns certainly took advantage of a Clippers team that was without their best two defenders, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, for most of that series. Phoenix has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 265 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Denver hosts the opening two games of this series have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. 8* NBA Phoenix-Denver TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-28-23 |
Kings v. Warriors UNDER 236.5 |
|
118-99 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (50-37) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-116 loss at home to the Warriors on Wednesday. Golden State (47-40) has won six of their last eight games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sacramento allowed the Warriors to nail 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Kings should work harder on defense in this potential elimination game tonight. They have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They hit the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Golden State had their best shooting effort from the floor with their 52.1% mark in their last five games on Wednesday. The Warriors return home where the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total again teams with a winning record — and Sacramento has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (551) and the Golden State Warriors (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-27-23 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 232.5 |
|
128-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (537) and the Atlanta Hawks (538) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (60-27) has lost for the second time in the last three games in this series with their 119-117 upset loss as a 13-point underdog at home to the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-44) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin as they hope to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston was cruising with a 111-99 lead with just 5:19 minutes left in the fourth quarter before complacency might have set in — and Atlanta’s Trae Young got scorching hot with his shooting to steal the game away for the Hawks. The Celtics need to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing Atlanta to average 115.2 Points-Per-Game in this series. Boston allows 111.6 PPG this season — and they rank second in the NBA in the regular season in defending inside the arc. The Hawks took the second most shots from midrange in the regular season while taking the fewest shots from behind the arc per possession. Their 35.3% shooting percentage from 3-point range, ranked 24th in the league. But head coach Quin Snyder has Atlanta shooting many more 3s in this series — and they nailed 19 of their 41 shots (46%) from behind the arc on Tuesday. The Hawks are due for regression as they only make 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Speaking of regression, while the last three games have flown Over the Total with at least 236 combined points scored, Boston has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playin three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. They have also played 19 of their last 29 games in the playoffs Under the Total. The Hawks pulled out Game Five despite Dejounte Murray being suspended for that game after bumping a referee — but there is a legitimate question regarding whether or not the Hawks are a better team without Murray. The offense seems to flow better when Young is the point guard and primary scorer. When Young and Murray are playing together on the court, Atlanta is getting outscored by -7.7 points per 100 possessions in this series. But when Young is on the court without Murray in this series, the Hawks are outscoring the Celtics by +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (537) and the Atlanta Hawks (538) Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-26-23 |
Warriors v. Kings UNDER 235 |
|
123-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Sacramento Kings (534) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 126-125 win at home against the Grizzlies as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Memphis (50-36) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 50.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. But they also allowed the Grizzlies to nail 47.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Warriors have played 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 17-6-1. Sacramento enjoyed their best shooting mark with that 47.1% clip in their last seven contests. But they played their worst defensive game in their last four games with the Warriors shooting 50.0% from the field. The Kings have played 40 of their last 64 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (533) and the Sacramento Kings (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-23 |
Clippers v. Suns OVER 224.5 |
|
130-136 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Phoenix Suns (524) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-41) will attempt to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four of this series in a 112-100 loss at home to the Suns on Saturday. Phoenix (48-38) has won the last three games in this series to take a 3-1 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 43.5% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting mark in their last eight games. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total — and the Over is 25-9-2 in their last 36 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Phoenix played their best defensive game in their last seven contests by holding the Clippers to 43.5% shooting. The Sunday have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They return home where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games — and the Over is 17-8-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road when avenging a loss to their opponent. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams when they are playing in Phoenix. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Phoenix Suns (524). Best of luck of run — Frank.
|
04-23-23 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 |
|
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (56-29) has won four games in a row after their 120-111 victory on the road against the Timberwolves as a 2-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (43-44) has lost four of their last five games as they look to stave off elimination tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots in Game Two of this series on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. Rather than receiving a visit from the Regression Gods, Denver backed that up by making 57.1% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting performance in their last 22 contests. The Nuggets are a great offensive team — but they are overachieving in this series. Michael Porter, Jr. is making 50% of his shots from 3-point range which is simply not sustainable. Denver has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. Denver has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 28 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. Minnesota has played 16 of their last 20 games at home Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The T-Wolves stay at home where the Under has an 11-5-1 record in their last 17 games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (507) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-21-23 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 223 |
Top |
120-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (55-29) has won three games in a row after their 122-113 victory at home against the Timberwolves as an 8.5-point favorite in Game Two on Wednesday. Minnesota (43-43) has lost three of their last four games after that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 54.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. And while they allowed the Timberwolves to make 50.6% of their shots, that was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense — but head coach Mike Malone has this group playing better on that end of the court as of late. While Denver ranked 21st in the regular season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improved to 16th in that metric after the All-Star Break. While that is still the middle of the road, the market has been slow to adjust as the team trends I will cite indicates. The Nuggets held Minnesota to no more than 27 points in three of the four quarters in Game Two after limiting them to 80 points in Game One — and that was on the heels of only giving up 95 points to the up-tempo Sacramento team (albeit with their backups playing) in the final game of the regular season. Denver has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Nuggets took a 64-49 lead at halftime on Wednesday — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding a halftime lead of 15 or more points. Denver goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Minnesota played their worst game on defense in 13 contests by allowing the Nuggets to make 54.1% of their shots in Game Two. The T-Wolves have been an improved defensive club that ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during the regular season but was ranked eighth in that metric after the All-Star Break. They clamped down on Oklahoma City in the final Play-In Tournament game to just 95 points — and they limited the Nuggets to just 109 points in Game One which was almost seven points before their season average. The bigger problem for this team is that there can experience scoring lulls on the other end of the court. They exploded for 40 points in the third quarter on Wednesday but only scored 73 points for the rest of the game. They have scored 107 or fewer points in four of their last eight games including those 80 points in Game One. Aaron Gordon is doing an outstanding job in slowing down Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has scored only 21 combined points in this series on 8 of 27 shooting. He has committed nine turnovers and gotten to the free throws line only four times. Game Two flew Over the 222.5-point total — but Minnesota has played 16 of their last 19 home games Uner the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where the Under has an 11-4-1 record in their last 16 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the T-Wolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (559) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-20-23 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 210 |
|
102-97 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (547) and the Brooklyn Nets (548) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-28) has won four games in a row with their 96-84 win at home against the Nets as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Brooklyn (45-39) has lost three games in a row as they trailing this series by a 0-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only shot 37.5% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. While I often consider these outlier shooting performances to be due for regression, in this instance it may the canary in the coal mine regarding the problems Brooklyn will have on that end of the court. Since the All-Star Break, the Nets rank 24th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with the team struggling to generate consistent points after trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia only made 45.0% of their shots in Game Two with the Nets playing hard on defense — that was the Sixers’ worst shooting effort in their last ten games. The 76ers have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Division rival in their previous game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (547) and the Brooklyn Nets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-18-23 |
Clippers v. Suns OVER 226.5 |
|
109-123 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (535) and the Phoenix Suns (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-38) won for the fourth straight time on Sunday with their 115-110 upset win on the road against the Suns as a 7.5-point underdog. Phoenix (45-38) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers pulled off the upset despite making only 44.1% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay on the road where the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games on the road — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Clippers have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. By holding Los Angeles to 44.1% shooting, the Suns played their best defensive game in their last four contests. The Over is 5-0-1 in Phoenix’s last 6 games after a straight-up loss. The Over is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (535) and the Phoenix Suns (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-16-23 |
Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 225 |
|
80-109 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
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At 10:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-41) has won four of their last five games after their 120-95 victory against Oklahoma City as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday in the Play-In Tournament. Denver (53-29) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 109-95 upset win against Sacramento as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday to conclude their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, Minnesota has played 4 of these games Under the Total. Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They host this game where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a long record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their four regular season games with the Nuggets winning the most recent meeting in a 146-112 victory on February 7th. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road of 30 or more points. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-12-23 |
Thunder v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 |
|
123-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) and the New Orleans Pelicans (568) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (40-42) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 115-100 victory against Memphis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (42-40) ended the regular season with a 113-108 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Minnesota to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs — and the loser has their season end tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans boasts the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the league in their last 12 games. Overall, the Pelicans rank sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with head coach Willie Green focusing on that end of the court with his group once again learning to live life without a healthy Zion Williamson who has missed much of the season again due to injuries. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They earned the right to host this game having played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. We should not read too much into the Thunder’s victory on Sunday against a Grizzlies team locked into the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they did make 50% of their shots which was the best shooting in their last six games. Oklahoma City has a 16-25 record on the road while scoring -3.4 fewer Points-Per-Game and making 45.0% of their shots as opposed to their 46.6% shooting percentage for the season. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won three of the four meetings between these two teams but lost the last encounter between these squads in a 110-96 upset loss as a 2-point home favorite on March 11th. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by ten or more points. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (567) and the New Orleans Pelicans (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-12-23 |
Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 |
|
109-105 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (565) and the Toronto Raptors (566) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chicago (40-42) enters the NBA postseason coming off a 103-81 win against Detroit as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Toronto (41-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-105 win against Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to Miami to play the Heat to claim the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs on Friday — and the loser ends their season tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has been a much better team since acquiring Patrick Beverley at the trade deadline. The Bulls rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since adding the gritty perimeter defender. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Additionally, Chicago has also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to the 219.5-point range. The Under is also 34-16-1 in the Bulls’ last 51 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. Toronto made 50.5% of their shots in their win against the Bucks on Sunday — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Adding center Jakob Poetl significantly improved the play of this team on defense since it provided them with a rim protector they were lacking. With Poelt on the court, Toronto gives up -5.6 points per 100 possessions. They have played 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set from 210 to 219.5. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 5 straight games in the playoffs Under the Total. 8* NBA Chicago-Toronto ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (565) and the Toronto Raptors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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