Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET.
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11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Southwest) is on the Hou Rockets at 3:35 ET.
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11-23-19 | Blazers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blax\zers at 8:05 ET.
Portland won 53 games last season and advanced to the Western Conference Finals. At 5-11 to open the current season, Portland is at least in the running for this season's "Most Disappointing Team." It sure hasn't helped that center Jusef Nurkic is not expected back until mid-Feb or that promising power forward Zach Collins' shoulder will keep him sidelined until March. The team's best player, Lillard (28.6-4.9-7.1), has missed the last two games with a back issue (is listed as probable here) plus center Hassan Whiteside (14.9 & 12.0) has fought nagging injuries all season and is listed as questionable for this one. The Blazers opened this six-game road trip with a win at San Antonio (everyone is beating the Spurs these days!) but then have lost at Houston, New Orleans and Milwaukee, while allowing an average of 128 points! The Blazers wrap up the trip with this game in Cleveland and then a Monday game at Chicago. The 4-11 Cavs are in a three-way tie with the Knicks and Hawks for the East's worst record and only the sad-sack 3-14 Warriors own a worse record in the entire NBA. Cleveland welcomes Portland to town on a SIX-game losing streak, after getting routed 143-101 at Dallas on Friday. Porzingis sat for Dallas but the magnificent Doncic had 30 points and 14 assists (missed a triple-double with seven rebounds), as the Cavs allowed Dallas to shoot 58% from the floor, including a blistering 20 of 37 on threes. That's some defense? It will sure help if Lillard returns to join McCollum, who is averaging 22,3-4.6-3.9. Hood has started all 14 games he has played in for the Blazers, averaging 11.4 PPG. A sign Portland may be desperate is that the team signed 'Melo, who did not play all last season. He's averaged 14.0 & 5.0 in two games but when has this guy ever been a "good influence" on a team? PF Kevin Love (17.9 & 11.8) and center Thompson (14.1 & 9.9) are solid players for the Cavs plus second-year guard Sexton (17.7) is proving he belongs in the NBA. Clarkson chips in 13.5 PPG off the bench. Neither team has shown much interest in playing much defense these days (see above). The Cavs are going nowhere this season, as Cleveland's supposed best player (leader?) is Love. The last time I checked, he was averaging ONE offensive rebound per game. The Cavs' six-game slide is no fluke, as there will be plenty of losing the rest of the way for this team. Meanwhile, the Blazers WILL get things straightened out. Even without a healthy roster, the Blazers will "take care of" the Cavs, who are playing on back-to-back nights for just the second time this season. The first time saw them lose 123-105 at the pathetic Knicks. The Blazers beat the Cavs 129-112 in Portland last season and 123-110 in Cleveland. That ounds about right to me, here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 11-4 Houston Rockets will visit Staples Center tonight to take on the 10-5 LA Clippers. The two teams met back in Houston on Oct 13, with the Rockets winning 102-93, as James Harden poured in 47 points. However, unlike in that meeting in Houston, when the Clippers take the court tonight against the Rockets, BOTH Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be in the starting lineup. LA's "dynamic duo" were part of a victory in their first time together on the court Wednesday night, as the Clippers survived OT to beat the Celtics 107-104. As for the Rockets, they had an eight-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday's 105-95 loss in Denver. It was Houston's lowest scoring output of the season plus James Harden scored "just" 27 points, snapping a streak of at least 36 in EIGHT straight games. Harden only took 16 shots against Denver (in comparison, he hoisted 41 against Minnesota on Saturday), as Houston was just 12-of-38 from three-point range. That said, Harden gave Denver's defense little (no?) credit for Houston's shooting woes. "They just double-teamed every possession," Harden told reporters. "They got lucky. They got away with one. We didn't execute how we needed to." OK, if you say so James. Harden continues to post remarkable numbers (38.4-5.8-7.5) and I guess he and Westbrook (21.8-7.9-6.9) have found a way to work together, However, I'm just not sold (I had Denver on Wednesday). I noted in my Wednesday write up that center Clint Capela (13.9 & 13.7) "is one of the NBA's least appreciated big men," and he scored 12 points while pulling down 21 rebounds in the loss at Denver. Note: He's recorded 20 or more rebounds in five straight games, the best such streak since Ben Wallace of the Pistons also had five straight in March of 2003. However, I also noted on Wednesday that the Rockets are without Eric Gordon (a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career) and that the team's depth is VERY questionable. Leonard (25.8-8.6-5.7) scored 17 points but was just 7-of-20 shooting, while George (28.3-6.3-4.8 in four games) recorded 25 points and eight assists in the successful first pairing in terms of the victory column. "The fact of the matter is we are going to have growing pains, and I think the most positive thing is we understood that," George told reporters afterward. "Nobody was pointing fingers or dropping their heads in huddles. ... At no point was this team ever dysfunctional." While Leonard and George were drawing double teams, Lou Williams (22.5 & 5.7 APG) scored 27 points and Patrick Beverley (7.7-6.9-3.0) had a superb all-around game with a career-best 16 rebounds to go along with 14 points and seven assists. Leonard and George each played 37 minutes against Boston and their fitness could be tested by the fast-paced Rockets as they learn to play with one another. "It's pretty much just finding each other's spots and knowing the plays," Leonard said of potential improvement. "It's still tough. We are both kind of on a minute restriction - hard to get into a flow. But just knowing plays and each other's spots and the language on the defensive end. Repetition is what we need right now." I've NEVER been a fan of Harden or Westbrook and I expect the Clippers to "take care of business" tonight, avenging that Nov 13 loss (sans George). While Houston's depth can be rightly questioned (note: Danuel House, averaging 11.2 PPG, departed the Denver game and is unlikely to play Friday), the Clippers own an OUTSTANDING bench led by Williams (see above), Harrell (18.1 & 7.3) plus Green (8.1 & 7.0in 22 minutes). Green flies a little under the radar, as he's played in all 15 games, scoring in double digits seven times and grabbing 10-plus rebounds three times. It's Kawhi and Paul over James & Russell, with an assist from the LA bench. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. It's the 11-3 Houston Rockets and the 9-3 Denver Nuggets meeting tonight at Pepsi Center in a matchup of two of the Western Conference's best teams.The Rockets have won EIGHT in a row led by James Harden (more in a bit), while the Nuggets open a four-game homestand looking to break through against Houston, which has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Harden scored 36 in Monday's 132-108 rout of the Portland Trail Blazers (Rockets' 8th straight win), while PGF Russell Westbrook contributed 28 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his 141st career triple-double. Harden is averaging an NBA-best 39.2 PPG (also 5.7 RPG and 7.6 APG), while Westbrook checks in at 21.6-8.4-7.1. Center Clint Capela (14.1 & 13.1) is one of the NBA's least appreciated "big men" but the Rockets are without Erc]ic Gordon, a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season and have opened 9-3. Center Jokic led Denver in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). However, Jokic has not quite been that good so far this season, although his line does read 16.4-8.8-6.0. Recent good news is that PG Jamal Murray (19.2-4.8-4.8) established season bests of 39 points and seven 3-pointers Sunday at Memphis, when the Nuggets had their highest point total of the season in a 131-114 road win. PF Paul Millsap (14.1 & 6.1) matched his season high of 23 points against Memphis and has reached double digits in six straight contests. Some (many?) thought it would be a problem having two ball-dominant guards on the floor at the same time in Harden and Westbrook, but through 14 games the plan has worked. Then again, the Rockets are just 7-7 ATS this season. Yes, the Rockets are a slight underdog here so a win means a cover but I believe Denver's depth will be the difference. Jokic and Murray typically carry the main offensive load but Millsap (see above), Barton (14.8 & 7.4) and Harris (10.7) are also capable of big offensive nights. Denver arguably owns the NBA's deepest bench and was one of the main reasons Denver had the NBA's best home record last season at 34-7. Tough two-game road trip for the Rockets (here and at the Clippers on Friday) and I think they will be fortunate to win either one. I won't get ahead of myself, so tonight the play is on Denver. Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Knicks at 7:05 ET. Two of the East's worst teams square off tonight at MSG, as the 4-8 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the 3-10 NY Knicks. The Cavaliers come to New York having dropped three straight, after losing 114-95 to Philadelphia at home on Sunday afternoon. The Knicks were off on Sunday, after suffering a last-second 103-102 loss Saturday night to the visiting Charlotte Hornets. The Cavs' last win came over the Knicks, 108-87 in New York back on Nov 10. The Cavs took an 18-point halftime lead in that one, as Collin Sexton finished with 31 points on 10 of 16 shooting. Sexton is in his second season and is averaging 18.2 PPG, tying him with Kevin Love (18.2 & 12.1) for the team lead. Love scored just 12 points in Sunday's loss, after averaging 20.5 in his previous two games. Center Tristan Thompson (14.9 & 10.5) was just a rebound shy of his ninth double-double of the season (12 & 9) against Philly. Cleveland has a fourth double-digit scorer in guard Clarkson (14.8). New York owns its only two wins this month over improving Dallas but has yet to post back-to-back victories this season. The Knicks followed a Nov 8 win at Dallas with the above-mentioned home loss to the Cavs and then after beating Dallas again this past Thursday, lost 103-102 to visiting Charlotte on Friday. The Knicks could not hold an eight-point lead in the final six minutes, as the Hornets won on a three-pointer with 2.8 seconds remaining. “We didn’t take the game,” Knicks forward Julius Randle told the New York Post. “We let them stay around instead of us really taking the game.” Randle (15.5-9.5-3.9) leads the team in rebounds and assists, while fellow forward Morris (18.2 & 5.9) leads in scoring, with rookie RJ Barrett justifying being picked third overall in last June’s draft by averaging 15.8-5.8-3.8. The Knicks were riding high after beating the Mavs on Thursday night and then leading by as many as 15 points Saturday vs Charlotte, before 'spitting out the bit.' I doubt I'll be 'on' the Knicks very often this season but they are catching the Cavs on the second of a back-to-back and if head coach David Fizdale can't get his team to win in a spot like this, his 'seat' will go from 'hot' to 'boiling.' Cleveland is 'ripe for the taking' in this one and I'll back the Knicks. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Orl Magic at 6:05 ET. The Orlando Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, the Magic have won THREE of the their last four as they get set to host the Washington Wizards on Sunday.The Wizards will play the entire season with All Star PG John Wall and are not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Washington has opened just 3-7 The Wizards wrap up a three-game road trip here in Orlando, after losing 140-133 at Boston and winning 137-116 at Minnesota. Bradley Beal was expected to have a "career year" with Wall sidelined and coming off a 44-point effort in Friday's win at Minnesota, he's doing just that. He's averaging 29.7-4.6-4.9 with FIVE more Wizards averaging between 11.4 and 14. PPG. One of those players is the 6-11 Mortitz Wagner (2nd-year pro out of Michigan), who turned in a 30 & 15 effort against the T-wolves.The Wizards can score (117.3 PPG ranks 3rd) but they are also allowing 119.6 PPG, which ranks 28th in a 30-team league. Speaking about scoring, after being held to just 95.1 PPG during a 2-6 start, the Magic have averaged 109.8 PPG over their last five games, including 110.8 over the first four of a five-game homestand in which they've one THREE of four. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.82& 11.7) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.3) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one that had started together in the team's first 11 games. Isaac (ankle) sat out Friday but returned to practice on Saturday and is probable to return. SG Fournier (16.2) is a scorer on the perimeter and is coming off a season-high 26 points in Friday's 111-109 win over the Spurs PGs Fultz (9.8 & 3.2 APG) and Augustin (9.6 & 4.5 APG) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting seven and Augustin, five. Terrence Ross (10.3) has done a great job off the bench and after missing back-to-back games in early November (knee), has averaged 15.0 PPG in his three games back. The Magic have begun to resemble the playoff team of last year recently and that should continue here, as they can conclude their homestand with a 4-1 record by winning tonight. As good as Beal is, I'm betting "under 44 points" for him this game, as well as going "under" 30 points and 15 points for Wagner, who checks in with season averages of 12.8 & 5.9. Washington has lost SIX of eight, allowing a 131.3 PPG in its six losses. As noted, Orlando's offensive woes of its first eight games is behind them and I'm looking for a "comfortable" win here. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Raptors v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened defense of the franchise's first-ever NBA title in October with Kawhi in LA playing for the Clippers plus starting guard Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) also in LA, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news was that head coach Nick Nurse (reigning Coach of the Year) still had a familiar cast. Pascal Siakam was the NBA's Most Improved Player and then averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry's been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without (he was a former Defensive Player of the Year). Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believed Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). Toronto has opened 8-3, despite the fact that Kyle Lowry (21.8-4.3-6.5) and Serge Ibaka (14.0 & 6.5 while averaging just 23 minutes) have each missed the last three games. Lowry ( fractured thumb) is out until at least late-November and Ibaka (sprained ankle) is listed as "out indefinitely." Toronto is playing the finale of a five-game road trip on Saturday and has won THREE of the first four stops. The Raptors bounced back from a 98-88 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday (Raptors got outscored 25-10 in the 4th quarter, one night after beating the Lakers 113-104 on the same court) with a 114-106 triumph at Portland on Wednesday. VanVleet went off for a season-high 30 points in Wednesday's win and is averaging 22.3 PPG over the last three contests (with Lowry sidelined). Siakam is averaging 27.2 & 9.2 on the season, as he's turned into an All-Star. The Dallas Mavericks were playoff 'regulars' from 2000-01 to 2015-16, making the postseason in 15 of those 16 years (won lone NBA title in 2011). However, the Mavs opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing years, with win totals of just 33, 24 and 33. However, after Luka Doncic won rookie-of-the-year honors last season (21.2-7.8-6.0), expectations were that Dallas would be a playoff team in 2019-20. Kristaps Porzingis was acquired from the Knicks last season in a trade and he was healthy and ready to go to open this season. He's averaging 18.5 & 8.2 and with Doncic putting up Westbrook-like numbers (28.7-10.3-9.3), the Mavs surely have shown signs of being a playoff team. Five more players have played in all 11 games this season, with two others playing in 10 of 11. That group consists of guys averaging anywhere from 6.4-to-11.6 PPG. However, the Mavs check in at a modest 6-5 and that includes TWO losses to the pathetic NY Knicks, home and away, in a seven-day span. Dallas has yet to convince me that "it is back," but the Raptors are in a tough spot, playing their FIFTH game in nine days. With no Lowry or Ibaka for Toronto, I expect Dallas to get a much-needed, confidence-building win here at home, against the defending champs. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Clippers v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 7:35 ET. The LA Clippers and Houston Rockets have each opened 7-3 and will square off in the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader. Kawhi Leonard led the Toronto Raptors to an NBA championship in his lone season with the team last spring and helped the Clippers to a 98-88 victory over his former team on Monday. Leonard struggled in going just 2-of-11 from the floor on Monday but finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and three steals. The Rockets played on Monday night as well, winning 122-166 at New Orleans, as James Harden scored 39 points (more on him in a bit). Leonard is the 'face' of the Clippers, averaging 26.9-8.5-5.9 but Paul George is expected back soon, giving LA a formidable "1-2 punch!" As good Leonard and George are, LA's outstanding bench will be a huge part of any success the Clippers will have this postseason. Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (22.3 & 5.6 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.8 & 7.1) and Green (9.1 & 6.3), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. Houston's Monday win was its FOURTH in a row and Harden's 39 points was the fourth straight game in which he has scored at least 35 points. Harden's average of 37.3 points through the first 10 games is the highest the league has seen through a 10-game start since the NBA-ABA merger, besting Michael Jordan's 36.9 points in 1988-89 and 1986-87.Westbrook (21.9-8.7-7.4) has meshed well with Harden and both will be counted on even more than usual with third guard Eric Gordon (16.6 PPG scorer in his career) undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery on Wednesday, sidelining him for about six weeks.One of the league's best-kept 'secrets' is center Clint Capela, who is averaging 13.5 & 11.7. Kawhi has sat out two games due to "load management" and both were in games against quality opponents. He missed LA's game at Utah Oct 30 and then missed the team's home game on against Giannis and the Bucks (still don't get that one?). The Clippers will play at New Orleans tomorrow and one would expect Kawhi to play here but you just never know. The Clipper may have held Toronto to just 10 points in the 4th on Monday and to 88 points for the game but the Clippers have allowed a WHOPPING 120.7 PPG in their only three road games this season and here, face the NBA's top-scoring team (Rockets average 120.3 PPG). 'LOVE' the Rockets at the opening number but if Kawhi sits, I'll lay the higher number, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Thunder v. Pacers -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but the Pacers now look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference with SIX wins in their last seven games. As for OKC, it seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Thunder were in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, as the team's top-four scorers are in their first season with OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.0-5.8-3.4) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (18.6 & 5.0, while shooting 43.7% on threes), Paul (16.1-3.6-5.2) and Schroder (14.7-5.2-34.7).The Thunder pushed the Milwaukee Bucks to the brink on Sunday, before falling 121-119. Gallinari suffered through one of his worst shooting games (was just 4-of-17 from the floor) but made a key three-pointer down the stretch to keep his team close. Backup PG Dennis Schroder helped keep the Thunder in the game with a season-high 25 points on 9-of-12 shooting. OKC features a balanced attack but it could sure use a healthy Steven Adams. The center is averaging 8.3 & 10.1 but sat out the Milwaukee game and has missed THREE of OKC's last five with a knee issue (he's listed as questionable for this one). The Pacers welcome the Thunder to Bankers Life Fieldhouse with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and newly-acquired SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 20.8-5.2-8.9. However, the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga posted his fourth straight double-double with 21 points and 16 rebounds in Sunday's 109-102 victory at Orlando plus matched a season high with seven assists (he's averaging 20.0-13.0-4,1 on the season). Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, as is reserve point guard T.J. McConnell. McDermott has averaged 17.0 PPG over his last three games and McConnell has scored 29 points and handed out 17 assist over his last two. Indiana is on a roll, going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS its last seven. The Pacers are a very tough matchup for OKC, which seemed to be developing a defensive identity, allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3) heading into a Thursday game at San Antonio. However, the Thunder have allowed 116.7 PPG over their last three games and now take on an Indiana team averaging 112.9 PPG over its last seven games. OKC has four wins this season, two over 2-9 Golden St and one each against 2-8 New Orleans and 3-7 Orlando. One last thing, the Thunder are 0-3 on the road, allowing 112.3 PPG. "Batten down the hatches" and lay the points with Indiana. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs -1 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the SA Spurs at 5:05 ET. The Boston Celtics had no answers for the the 76ers in Philly back on Oct 23, losing 107-93 in their season-opener. However, Boston has won SIX in a row, since. Boston's 6-1 record is tops in the Eastern Conference and the Celtics look to make it SEVEN straight wins when they visit AT&T Center in San Antonio for a game with the 5-3 Spurs. The Celtics easily won 108-87 Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night,while the Spurs snapped a two-game slide with a 121-112 win over OKC the same night. It seems like Boston is happy with Kemba Walker as its PG, instead of Kyrie, who is now in Brooklyn. Walker (24.3-5.1-4.0) has been an easy fit within Brad Stevens' offense plus the return to form of SF Gordon Hayward has put a smile on Stevens' face. The former All-Star battled through an inconsistent 2018-19 season while recovering from a leg injury but has averaged 20.3-7.9-4.6 so far, looking more like the star from his Utah years. He joins Jayson Tatum (21.6 & 7.7) to give Boston an outstanding starting forward duo. Boston also got swingman Jaylen Brown (16.0 & 6.3) back against the Hornets and he scored 12 in the win. He had missed three games with a leg infection that he said required five hospital trips. Center Enes Kanter (knee) has missed the last six games and is not expected to play Saturday but reports are, "he's close." San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.0-4.5-5.0) and PF Aldridge (19.0 & 6.6) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, San Antonio had been waiting for a breakout game from Aldridge and finally got one on Thursday, when he went off for a season-high 39 points on 19-of-23 shooting. Aldridge had averaged 12.3 points on 39.1 percent shooting in the four previous games (Spurs were just 1-3). More good news came in that PG Dejounte Murray added 17 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds on Thursday for his first points-assists double-double of the season. Murray (12.9-8.0-5.4) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Al\ldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes Forbes (14.5), backup PG White (11.9), Mills (11.6) and SF Green (10.5 & 6.9). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.2), he's averaging 7.8 RPG in only 20 minutes. Here's the bottom line. The Spurs' domination of the Celtics has 'long legs,' as San Antonio is 44-13 in their matchups with Boston since 1990. However, recent history, is more applicable.The Celtics last won at San Antonio in March 2011, before proceeding to drop 14 of their next 15 to Gregg Popovich's squad (Spurs are 11-3-1 ATS, 79% in that span, dating back SEVEN years). Brad Stevens has bested Popovich only ONCE, a 108-94 home win in October 2017. What changes here? NOTHING! Especially at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Bucks v. Jazz +2 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. Reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a historic start, as he is the first player in NBA history to exceed 200 points (232), 100 rebounds (114) and 50 assists (61) in the first eight games of season, as he's averaging 29.0-14.2-7.6. Giannis had a season-high 38 points to go with 16 rebounds and nine assists while leading the Bucks to a 129-124 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, a contest Kawhi sat out (???). The 6-2 Bucks visit the 5-3 Utah Jazz on Friday in search of their fifth straight win. Utah snapped a two-game slide with a 106-104 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, as star guard Donovan Mitchell had 24 points and a season-best eight assists. Middleton (18.6 & 5.2) continues too provide Milwaukee with a solid "second scoring option" to Antetokounmpo, while guards Bledsoe (14.5-5.8-4.5) and Hill (11.4) plus center Brook Lopez (10.4 & 4.4) also are averaging in double digits. The Bucks also own a deep bench, helping Milwaukee to average an NBA-high 122.1 PPG, while shooting a league-best 47.7% from the floor. Mitchell (25.5-4.8-3.9) is Utah's best player but he hardly stands alone. SF Bojan Bogdanovic (20.1 & 4.4) is making a smooth transition to the team while shooting 49.5 percent from the floor and 44.4 percent from beyond the arc plus new PG Conley is finding his 'sea legs' after a poor start. He scored 15 points against the 76ers for his third 15-point outing in four games and he is averaging 17.8 points during the stretch. Let's NOT forget Rudy Gobert (11.2 & 12.5), who is the centerpiece" of the NBA's stingiest defense. Utah allows an NBA-low 96.6 PPG on 41.6% shooting (3rd). This game features the top-scoring team in NBA against its best defensive one. I'm "all in" on Milwaukee being the East's best team but winning in Salt Lake City is NEVER easy for any team (more in a bit). First let me note that the Jazz are 4-0 SU at home outscoring opponents 107.2-to-94.0 PPG. to open the current season (have beaten the LAC & Sixers). Let me also add that the Jazz are in the rare role of being a home dog in this one, having gone 19-9 in their last 28 games in that role (68%). Milwaukee comes in playing its THIRD road game in five days (note: Hill took an elbow to his eye at the end of Wednesday's game and could be limited) and how does one IGNORE this factoid? The Bucks have lost their last 15 visits to Utah, going a money-burning 2-13 ATS, which is an 87% "go-against". Case Closed, as Archie Bunker liked to say! Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Central) Game of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. Not sure I've seem this before but Friday night, Central Division rivals Detroit and Indiana meet for the THIRD time in the season's first 18 days. The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG, but the Pistons have won both meetings this season, 119-110 at Indiana back on Oct 23 and then 96-94 in Detroit on Oct 28. Both teams come in off impressive offensive performances on Wednesday, as the Pistons routed the Knicks 122-102 and the Pacers beat the Wizards, 121-106. Detroit's Tony Snell (9.7) made all nine of his shots and became the first player in NBA history to shoot 100 percent from the floor with at least six 3-pointers in a 24-point effort. Center Andre Drummond (21.9 & 18.6) added 27 & 12 plus Markieff Morris (11.9 & 3.9) chipped in 22. Detroit shot 55.7 percent from the floor and recorded 37 assists (a season-high for the team). However, Detroit remains with out Blake Griffin (24.5-7.5-5.4 ), who has yet to play. What's more Derrick Rose (21.8 & 6.3 APG) has sat out the last two with a hamstring injury and won't play, starting PG Jackson has missed the last seven games and is expected to be out another month plus backup PG Tim Frazier remains listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury. Victor Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury (possible return in Dec). The 6-11 Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) is questionable with an ankle injury and SG Lamb (17.0) will not play, also because on ankle issue. However, Indiana has won FOUR of five following an 0-3 start. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 22.2-5.0-9.9. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 20.3 & 12.3. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs Sampson (7.2) and McDermott (7.1) had big games vs Washington, as Sampson had 14 & 6 and McDermott 19 & 7. Detroit is 4-5 with HALF of its wins coming against the Pacers. Detroit's other two wins have come over the 3-4 Nets and 1-7 Knicks plus the Pistons have yet to win on the road (0-3 SU & ATS), except for their first game at Indiana. Indiana did lose at home to the Pistons to open the season but have gone 3-0 SU & ATS, since. The third time IS the charm, as the Pacers win this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 3-0 but the team's 0-3 ATS start was a sign that everything wasn't "quite right." Right on cue, San Antonio dropped three of its next four games (1-3 ATS), with its lone win and cover coming over the depleted Golden St Warriors. The Spurs are hoping to bounce back during a three-game homestand that starts tonight with the 3-4 OKC Thunder coming to San Antonio. The Thunder are looking for their first road win (0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) but are coming off back-to-back victories at home, beating the Pelicans 115-104 on Saturday and the Magic 102-943 on Tuesday. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that OKC was in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, who trying to develop a defensive identity. So far, it seems to be working, as OKC is allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3). Speaking of "new," the team's top-four scorers are in the first season with the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (22.1-6.6-3.1) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (17.7 & 4.7), Paul (15.6-3.4-4.7) and Schroder (13.6-5.3-3.9). San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.6-4.9-4.1) and PF Aldridge (16.1 & 6.7) give the team a solid "Big 2." FIVE more players are averaging in double digits with Forbes (14.6), White (12.4), Murray (12.2-8.0-4.7) and Mills (11.9) joining DeRozan to give San Antonio a strong perimeter group. SF Gay (11.7 & 7.6) has been solid off the bench up front, while Tre Lyles starts at center, averaging 3.7 PPG but 8.3 RPG in just about 20 minutes (note: Lyles has pulled down double-digit rebounds in two of the last three games). Pop-coached teams used to be known for defense but these days, the Spurs are a middle-of-the-road defensive team (109.6 PPG allowed ranks 14th). San Antonio has a 63-23 all-time record against the Thunder franchise at home and the home team has won the last seven meetings between these two teams. Does that mean all that much? I'm not sure it does. However, let's look at the "new-look" Thunder's three wins in the current season. ALL have come at home and the victories have come over the 2-6 Warriors, 1-6 Pelicans and 2-6 Magic. Those three teams are a combined 5-18 (.218) SU, going 6-16-1 ATS (27.3%). This is not your father's Spurs but I expect them to easily avoid a a third straight loss by earning a "W' and with a modest impost, grab the ATS win, as well.. Good luck...Larry
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11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry this season but health will play a big factor. Poor health has already played a HUGE factor in Detroit's 3-5 start, as guards Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Reggie Jackson (back) were on the sidelines when the Pistons lost 115-99 at Washington on Monday plus Blake Griffin (hamstring) has yet to make his season debut. The Pistons welcome the NY Knicks to Detroit on Wednesday, who enter the contest with the worst record in the Eastern Conference (1-6) including an 0-4 mark on the road. New York fell behind by 26 points after three quarters at home against Sacramento on Sunday before falling 113-92. That embarrassing loss followed an excellent effort Friday in Boston, when the Knicks lost just 104-102. Forward Marcus Morris (17.9 & 5.4) scored 28 points in the loss to the Kings, but the other frontcourt starters, Julius Randle and Bobby Portis, combined for 10 points on 5-for-19 shooting. Randle scored 25 points in NY's season opener but has since averaged 11.5 PPG on shooting 38.4 percent from the floor, while missed all 14 of his three-point attempts.Portis is averaging 10.4 & 7.7. Rookie guard RJ Barrett (18.3 & 6.1) leads the team in scoring and had 22 points in the loss to the Kings, but he is 17-for-48 from the floor (35.4%) over the last three games, plus is 3-for-15 (20.0%) from three-point range over the last four. Remember Frank Ntilikina, the 8th pick of the 20187 Draft? He's averaging less than 20 minutes while averaging 3.2 PPG on 29.6% shooting (23/2% on threes). Detroit has played its first eight games this season without Griffin, who is still waiting for medical clearance after rehabbing hamstring and knee injuries. Starting point PG Reggie Jackson will miss at least a month of action due to a stress reaction in his lower back plus Jackson's backups, Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Tim Frazier (shoulder), have missed the past two games. However, the makeshift backcourt of Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown has been a bright spot for Detroit, as the pair is averaging a combined 42 points and 11.5 assists over the last two contests. Kennard has back-to-back 24-point efforts and is shooting 46 percent from beyond the arc overall and is now averaging 17.4 PPG on the season. Center Andre Drummond saw his 20-20 streak come to an end at three games in Monday's loss but he still managed his NBA-leading eighth straight double-double (15 & 24) ) out of the gate. Drummond's been a 'beast,' averaging 21.3 & 19.4! "It's the NBA. There are no excuses," Detroit head coach Dwane Casey told reporters after his depleted team scored just 38 second-half points on Monday. "We got enough guys in that room to compete, to fight." While Jackson will miss several more weeks, Rose is day-to-day and Griffin has indicated he is close to playing his first game. The good news is, the Knicks should (will) provide a soft landing spot for the Pistons, as they won and covered all FOUR meetings with the Knicks last season. "The Price is Right," and I'm "all over" Detroit! Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. Jimmy Butler missed the first three games of the season for the Heat (attending the birth of his child) but returned to score 21 points on Oct 29, as the Heat routed the Hawks in Miami, 112-97. He was held to just five points in a rematch with Atlanta on Oct 31 (Heat won in Atlanta) and then scored a modest 18 as the Heat beat the Rockets, 129-100 in Miami. That contest is notable in that the Heat sprinted to a 46-14 first-quarter lead, with the 32-point margin being the third largest in the shot-clock era! The 5-1 Heat open a three-game road trip tonight in Denver, taking on the 4-2 Nuggets. Denver opened 3-0 but then lost 109-106 at home to Dallas, before losing 122-107 at New Orleans on Halloween (more in a bit). Denver struggled to find an offensive rhythm in Saturday's 91-87 road win at the Orlando Magic, as it shot just 37 percent from the floor. Miami has opened well, notably posting an impressive overtime win at Milwaukee in the second game of the season without Jimmy Butler. EIGHT Miami players are averaging double figures in scoring and the big offseason acquisition, Butler, is just sixth on the team at 14.7 PPG, after missing the first three games of the season. Some bad news could be that Justise Winslow (14.8-8.5-5.8) is questionable (back), after sitting out the last two games. The team's guard play has been outstanding, with undrafted rookie Nunn (played at Oakland) leading the way by averaging 19.5 PPG, joined by vet Dragic (16.2 & 4.2 APG) and Kentucky rookie Herro (15.7 & 6.0). Murray (18.5-4.8-3.5) is leading the Nuggets in scoring, while Jokic (15.8-10.5-6.0) is right behind him. Denver is without question, the NBA's deepest team (at least 10-deep) and former HS prodigy Michael Porter Jr could lend a helping hand, as he made his NBA debut with 15 points on Halloween. Speaking of that Halloween game, head coach Michael Malone didn't hold back when he ripped his team's performance in that blowout loss at New Orleans. He called out the effort and commitment to defense, and the players responded with a win at Orlando two days later. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season but so far they haven't shown any killer instinct in Denver. They needed overtime to beat the Phoenix Suns in their home opener and then got outworked by the Dallas Mavericks in a home loss a few nights later. That said, Denver owned the NBA's best home record last season, going 34-7! Jokic led Denver ins coring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). Jokic is NOT off to a great start (see above), as he entered the Orlando contest averaging just 10.7 PPG over the previous three contests. Malone made it clear he wants his big man to take more shots. "For us to be at our best we need him to take at least 15 shots a night," Malone said in reference to Jokic taking just 14 total shots in back-to-back losses prior to the win over the Magic. " Denver was 2-0 against Miami last season and has won FOUR of the past five meetings. I'm pretty 'high' on this Denver team and it is overdue for a breakout home game. How about tonight? Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-19 | Pelicans v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 125-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season (Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). The Nets surprised last season going 42-40, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. However, the Nets have struggled out of the gate by going 2-4 but hope to pick up a home win against another sub-.500 team before beginning a challenging road trip. That opportunity comes Monday against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans, who are 1-5 (only the 1-6 Knicks are worse). A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. The Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson (out until mid-Dec) and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last three games with a knee injury. The Pelicans opened 0-4 of the season but last Thursday upset the Nuggets 122-107, with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) . He scored 19 points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win. However, the Pelicans lost 115-104 at OKC on Saturday, when leading scorer Brandon Ingram left the contest with a head injury. Ingram (23.5-7.5-4.2), Hart (13.5 & 7.7) and Ball (12.0-5.0-7.3) came from the Lakers in the deal for Davis. Ingram is listed as probable but Favors is more of a question. If he does not play Monday, Jahlil Okafor likely will be the starting center for the third straight game (Okafor has 41 points and 17 rebounds in his two starts). Irving (30.5-6.5-7.5) recorded his third career triple-double with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in Saturday's. He's joined by fellow guards Caris LeVert (1318.8-4.5-3.5) and Spencer Dinwiddie (15.2 & 5.0 APG). Joe Harris led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and is averaging 14.3 PPG and shooting 57.1% on threes, so far. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and he's averaging 15.5 & 6.3. Allen (7.7 & 9.7) and Jordan (6.5 & 1.0) have each made three starts at center (they form a solid duo). Here's the deal. The Pelicans are a poor defensive team, allowing 122.5 PPG (29th) on the season and have opened 0-3 on the road, allowing 123.7 PPG. The Nets upset Houston 123-116 here on Friday but then blew a 14-point lead at Detroit on Saturday, in the second contest of their first back-to-back set of the season. Back at home, the Nets figure to have few problems with the struggling New Orleans Pelicans. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the LA Clippers at 9:05 ET. The LA Clippers strongly believe that the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George make them STRONG contenders for an NBA championship this season. George is not expected to be ready until mid-November and until then (and likely all season), the Clippers will manage Leonard's workload. The 4-2 Clippers "did just that" last Thursday in Salt Lake City, resting Leonard for Friday night's home game with the Spurs. With Leonard 'sitting,' LA hung around until halftime (trailed by one) but then got outscored 38-20 in the third quarter, as the Jazz coasted to 110-96 victory. Lou Williams (in a rare start) scored a team-high 24 points, JaMychal Green had 23 points & 8) and Montrezl Harrell chipped in 10 points but NO other LA reached double figures PG Mike Conley enjoyed a breakout game with his new team in the win over the Clippers, going off for a season-high 29 points on 11-of-17 shooting, including 5-of-8 from three-point range. Leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (24.0 & 4.8) added 24 points in the victory, as the Jazz shot 55.0% as team and scored 110 points. SF Bojan Bogdanovic (20.4) & 4.4) is making a smooth transition to the team while shooting 51.5 percent from the floor and 48.4 percent from beyond the arc but the Jazz are known for defense, not offense. Utah ranks first in points allowed (94.0 PPG) but although the Jazz are shooting 47.4% from the floor (5th), they are averaging only 101.0 PPG (27th). It's more than fair to say that Leonard and the Clippers are expecting a different outcome (from Thursday in SLC) when they host the Jazz on Sunday. Leonard was rested against the Jazz but the next night, 'dropped' 38 points on the Spurs (that had to feel good), as the Clippers remained unbeaten (3-0) at home. Leonard leads the team in scoring (29.2 points), rebounds (7.6) and assists (6.2). His play-making in the absence of a true PG on the roster is a big bonus for Los Angeles. "Kawhi's been easy to integrate," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "You just give him the ball. I'm no fool. But the spacing, what we've learned about Kawhi is how well he sees the floor and the type of passer that he is." Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (20.8 & 5.0 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.3 & 5.5) and Green (10.0 & 4.7), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. "Big-time revenge" on tap here and it works well, as the Jazz are 0-3 ATS on the road to open the 2019-20 season. The team's lone road win was in a one-point, non-covering victory at Phoenix.The Jazz are averaging 94.3 PPG on the road and that won't cut it against the revenge-minded Clippers, who shoot an NBA-best 49.6% from the floor, averaging 114.2 PPG. Remember Conley's effort Thursday night against the Clippers (see above for a reminder)? Take away that game and he's shooting 24.1% from the floor, including 20.7% on threes. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -3 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* "Battle of Losers" is on the OKC Thunder. The New Orleans Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last two games with a knee injury (doubtful for this one). However, the Pelicans won their first game of the season (opened 0-4) of the season on Thursday with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans will try to make it two in a row and earn their first victory on the road when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. The Thunder also check in at 1-4, withe their lone victory coming 120-92 over Golden St back on Oct 27. A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. Brandon Ingram was one of the key players New Orleans received in that deal and he's averaging 26.8 PPG while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. Hart (13.8 & 6.2) and Ball (12.4-4.4-7.4) also came from the Lakers but the Pelicans are really happy to have Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) back in the lineup, after missing two games. He scored points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win plus helped solidify a defense that allowed an average of 130 points in his two-game absence. Jahlil Okafor started in place of Favors on Thursday and scored a team-high 26 points on 8-of-13 from the floor. Oklahoma City has failed to reach 100 points in three of its first five contests and was 4-of-27 from beyond the arc in Wednesday's 102-99 loss to Portland. "We got to the free-throw line quite a bit, which kept it close, but the 3-point line probably was the difference, and we just did not shoot it certainly as well as they did or as timely as they did," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan told reporters The Thunder underwent considerable offseason changes, with former MVP Russell Westbrook getting dealt to Houston in a trade that brought in 15-year veteran PG Chris Paul plus All-Star Paul George was sent to the Clippers in a deal that brought in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari. Here's the deal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.6-7.0-3.2) and Danilo Gallinari (18.4 & 5.0) are the team's top-two scorers. PGs Paul (14.8-4.2-3.6) and Dennis Schroder (14.6-5.4-4.4) are also contributing nicely. Center Steven Adams (6.0 & 11.8) left-knee injury opened a starting spot for Nerlens Noel in the last contest and he played his best game of the season with 15 points and 14 rebounds. The Pelicans played "over their heads" vs Denver and the Thunder could really use a win over a VERY beatable foe.The home team took each of the four meetings last season and I see no reason for that to change here, even with two "new-look" squads. Also, "the price is right!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks 'jumped' all over the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday, taking a 58-42 lead at the half. However, Milwaukee got rolled in the second half, as the Celtics outscored them 74-47 in a 116-105 win. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 48 points on 18-of-28 shooting for Milwaukee but their teammates combined to shoot 37 percent and almost nobody could make a stop when it counted. The 2-2 Bucks continue a stretch in which they'll play NINE of 11 games away from home by taking on the Magic tonight in Orlando. The 2-2 Magic boast the top scoring defense in the Eastern Conference (93.8 PPG ranks 2nd in the NBA) but on the offensive end, have yet to score 100 points in a game. Orlando ranks 30th (last) in both scoring (95.8 PPG) and in FG percentage (39.5). Antetokounmpo, last year's MVP, is doing his usual thing averaging 23.8-13.5-8.0. Middleton is averaging 24 points over his last three games (he's 19-for-29 from the floor in the last two) and checks in averaging 20.8 & 6.5 through four games. The rest of the Bucks 'fell down' in Wednesday's loss at Boston but that's atypical. Bledsoe, Lopez and Matthews join Antetokounmpo and Middleton in the starting lineup and ALL average in double digits. Guard Hill (11.-3.8-4.8) plus swingmen Korver (9.3) and Connaughton (8.3) and PF Ilysova (8.5 & 7.3) come off the bench and ALL shoot better than 42.9% from three-point range (Korver leads with 50.0 percent). Milwaukee is averaging 119.2 PPG (4th) but is allowing 117.5 PPG (23rd). Orlando starts three guards in Fournier (17.8), Fultz (11.0) and Augustin (9.5 & 4.3 APG) with center Vicevic (15.8 & 11.3) and PF Gordon (9.0 & 6.3). Vucevic struggled to find his shooting touch through the first three games (hit 'rock bottom' at Toronto on Monday in going 1-for-13 from the floor) but scored 21 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in Wednesday's 95-83 victory over the Knicks. Orlando has to be at least slightly concerned over Gordon's slow start (see above), as he had averaged 17.6 & 7.9 and 16.0 & 7.4 the last two seasons. There is NOTHING wrong with Milwaukee's offense but its D is allowing 8.2 PPG more than it did last season, so while Milwaukee led all NBA teams in point-differential last season at plus-8.8, that figure sits at just plus-1.8 through four games of this season. Milwaukee had no success playing in Orlando from 2005 through 2015 but this Milwaukee team hardly resembles those past teams. The Bucks are off an embarrassing loss to the Celtics and will return home Sunday to host the defending champion Raptors on Sunday. Giannis and Co. were 17-4 ATS last season coming off a SU loss and the Bucks blew out Cleveland 129-112 in their first chance in that situation this year (Milwaukee had lost two nights earlier to Miami). Doing the math, that 18-4 ATS record translates to an 82% winning situation. Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:05 ET. Paul George is still sidelined for the Clippers but Kawhi Leonard has opened the season averaging 27.0 PPG (on 51.9% shooting), while adding 6.5 RPG and 7.5 APG. He's had two, 30-point efforts in LA's 3-1 start, including scoring 30 points (seven rebounds and six assists) in Monday's 111-96 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets. The Clippers are the NBA's 3rd-highest scoring team (121.5 PPG) and will visit Utah Jazz, who are allowing an average of 91.5 PGG (best in the NBA), after squeaking out a 96-95 road win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday to move to 3-1, as well. Until George returns, the Clippers best players (behind Leonard) are guard Williams (22.2 & 5.2 APG) and forward Harrell (20.5 & 6.8), who both come off the bench. Williams is a three-time Sixth Man of the Year and has rattled off FOUR straight 20-point efforts . Utah center Rudy Gobert (9.0 & 10.3) established season bests of 15 points and 18 rebounds against the Suns and notably went 11-of-12 from the free-throw line. Guard Donovan Mitchell scored 25 points, his third 20-point outing of the season, and checks in averaging 24.0-5.-3.3. A HUGE addition for has been Bojan Bogdanovic. Mitchell and Bogdanovic have formed a nice 1-2 punch, with Bogdanovic averaging 23.7 PPG. Both players are shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from three-point range. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup and yes the Jazz are averaging only 98.8 PPG (28th), but the Clippers have only held one opponent under 100 points (1-3 Charlotte), while allowing 112.5 PPG (20th). Quin Snyder has led the Jazz to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court and it's only a matter ot time until PG Conley breaks out of his early-season slump. The PG signed as a FA from Memphis, entering his first season in Salt Lake City averaging 20.5, 17.1 and 21.1 PPG the previous three seasons. The Jazz have won FIVE of the past seven meetings with the Clippers, including 111-105 in the lone matchup in Salt Lake City last season, behind 32 points from Mitchell. The Jazz are 57-25 SU at home the last two seasons (have opened 2-0 TY, outscoring opponents 106.5-to-91.5 PGG) and really have no 'number' to cover in this one. The Clippers allowed 122 points at Golden St in a blowout win and 130 at Phoenix in an eight-point loss. Jazz take this one, as defense tops offense! Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs have opened 2-0, rallying to win a sloppy opener against the NY Knicks 120-111 on Wednesday but then delivered much better effort in knocking off Washington 124-122 on Saturday. However, both wins have been non-covers. San Antonio is home for a third straight game to open the new season and looks to start 3-0 for the THIRD time in four seasons when the team completes its homestand Monday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland lost its home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland has won back-to-back road games to move to 2-1 on the season, posting a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, before outlasting the Mavs 121-119 last night in Dallas. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. Lillard is a "special" player who I think is under-appreciated. Consider this. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list.Lillard has opened averaging 31.7-4.0-6.) and McCollum got untracked last night at Dallas, scoring 35 points. McCollum was 13-of-36 from the floor in averaging 15.5 points in the team's first two contests but made 13-of-26 shots in Sunday’s victory while adding six rebounds, four assists and a pair of steals (McCollum is averaging 22.0 after three games). Center Hassan Whiteside, who was acquired from Miami in the offseason, was held to six points against Dallas but hauled in 14 rebounds and has connected on 17 of his 21 field-goal attempts in the first three games (14.7 & 14.0 thru three games). San Antonio's 1-2 'punch' consists of PF LaMarcus Aldridge and guard DeMar DeRozan. Aldridge is off to a strong start with 49 points in the first two games and has pulled down 17 rebounds. He needs 14 more rebounds to become the 72nd player in NBA history with 8,000. DeRozan struggled against the Knicks (3-of-10 from the floor) but score 26 in Saturday’s win Fellow guards Murray (18.5) and Forbes (18.0) are also off to solid starts for the Spurs. Popovich has limited the minutes of Murray in the first two games after the 23-year-old missed all of last season due to knee surgery, making his 18.5 PPG average in more impressive, as his 5.0 APG. This is San Antonio's third straight home game, while Portland i on a four-game road trip and will be playing its THIRD game in four night in this one. The home team won all four meetings last season, while covering each one as well. Portland is still waiting for center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) to return from his leg fracture plus many of its role players from last year are elsewhere. Aminu is in Orlando, Kanter in Boston, Seth Curry in Dallas , Layman in Minnesota and Turner in Atlanta. Home team wins and covers again, tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-19 | Pacers -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers bowed out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. These two met last Wednesday night in the season-opener for both and the Pistons upset the Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse 119-110 behind a monster game from Andre Drummond (32 & 23) The Pacers followed up their season-opening loss to Detroit by falling 110-99 at Cleveland on Saturday and are looking for more intensity on the defensive end.. "They pretty much did whatever they wanted," Indiana coach Nate McMillan told reporters after the latest setback. "We're not stopping anyone. They dominated the paint once again. More physical than we were throughout this game. ... More aggressive team. More scrappy team. We dug ourselves a hole we couldn't get out of." Indiana couldn't handle Drummond (see above) last Wednesday and struggled to defend the Cleveland frontcourt of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson in Saturday's loss (the duo combined for points and rebounds). The bright spot for Indiana has been Malcolm Brogdon, who has averaged 26 points and 10.5 assists while recording a double-double in both games. Brogdon came from Milwaiukee but two other newcomers had show n promise as well, with TJ Warren averaging 11.0 PPG (former Sun) and Lamb has averaged 10.0 PPG (former Hornet). Detroit is still waiting for star forward Blake Griffin ( 24.5-7.5-5.4 ) to make his season debut (knee issue) and is also working around an injury to starting point guard Reggie Jackson. His back problem made him sit out the game vs Philly, after averaging just 5.0 PPG (on 36.4% shooting) in the first two games. Detroit's best player in the early going has been former MVP Derrick Rose (25.3, on 64.% shooting & 5.0 APG), but the team is reluctant to push the oft-injured star past 30 minutes and is committed to keeping him with the second unit (he's averaged 26.3 minutes). Indiana is 0-2 but I see them avenging last Wednesday's home loss, as the Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Griffin is expected out until sometime in November and PG Jackson is listed as doubtful for this one. Indiana has a strong inside duo with Sabonis averaging 20.5 & 9.0 and Turner 18.0 & 10.0 plus the team's bench HAS to better than its 7 of 23 effort (16 points) last Wednesday. Pacers get that first "W." Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Dal Mavs at 7:05 ET. The Trail Blazers lost their home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland evened its record with a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, as Damian Lillard scored 35 points. As for Dallas, which won a modest 33 games last season, the Mavs have opened 2-0 with a 108-100 home win over the Wizards (Weds), followed by a 123-116 at New Orleans on Friday. Dallas is off to its best start since the 2004-05 team began 4-0 and will try to stay unbeaten tonight, when the Mavs host the Blazers. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. The Blazers are waiting for center Jusuf Nurkic to recover from a leg fracture suffered last March but he is likely out until at least February. His absence makes Al-Farouq Aminu’s off-season departure hurt even more. However, the Blazers are thrilled with what they've seen out of center Hassan Whiteside in the first two games. He's averaged 19.0 & 14.0. Lillard has averaged 33.5 PPG on 53.7% shooting but McCollum has averaged only 15.5 PPG on 36.1% shooting. Dallas hasn't made the postseason since 2015-16 and last won a playoff series in its 2010-11 championship season but has ridden Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis to a 2-0 start. Doncic is averaging 29.5-9.5-6.5 and Porzingis 23.5 & 4.0. Doncic had 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists versus Sacramento, giving him nine career triple-doubles, the most by a player younger than 21 in NBA history. Delon Wright is hoping he's found a home in Dallas (this is his sixth season and THIRD team) and he added 20 points, seven rebounds and five steals in Friday's win. I'm not sure how many know just how good Lillard is but maybe this will help. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list. However, even last year's Portland team which made the Western Conference Finals, had trouble with the a 33-win Dallas team. The clubs split the four-game series last season (home team was 4-0), with the contests decided by a total of just 21 points. What's more, Dallas has covered FIVE straight and 19 of the last 25 against Portland, going 10-3 ATS the last 13 at American Airlines Arena.Dallas moves to 3-0. Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-19 | Warriors -1 v. Thunder | Top | 92-120 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. A Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder matchup no longer features the same allure, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook out of the picture. Rather, it's a matchup of two teams searching for their 2019-20 'identities.' Golden St lost Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to injury (he's recovery from knee surgery). Golden State also said goodbye to key veterans Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala from a team that made FIVE straight NBA Finals appearances (three wins). OKC lost Durant via free agency to Golden St after the 2015-16 season and this past off-season, traded away Russell Westbrook plus Paul George left via free agency for the Clippers, after a two-season stay with the Thunder. The Warriors hardly looked like a contender in their season-opener against the Clippers on Thursday, as they were run off their home floor by LA in a 141-122 loss. The Clippers were the team that shot 'lights out' from beyond the arc (18 of 32), while the Warriors shot just 39.4 percent a s team. Curry has 23 points but made just 2-of-11 from three-point range and committed eight turnovers in 30 minutes. "This is not a one-off, this is the reality," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after the loss. "There's going to be nights like this this year. You've got to play through it, you've got to keep fighting and keep getting better. That's the plan." Draymond Green said it better, telling reporters, "We (expletive) sucked! And we gotta get better. I'm not a coach, so I'm not about to go watch a film and say, 'Oh, well we can build on this.' I really don't give a damn about what we can build on. We sucked tonight, and we gotta get better overall. And that's just what it is." Chris Paul came to OKC in the Westbrook deal but he's averaged only 14.0-5.-3.5 in OKC's first two games, while shooting 41.7 percent. The lone bright spot offensively for Oklahoma City in the first two games has been guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who came over in the trade that sent Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers. He is getting a chance at a larger role and he's averaged 27.0 PPG on 50.0% shooting, including 45.5% on threes. However, OKC has opened with a road loss at Utah (100-95) and a 97-85 home setback against the Washington Wizards on Friday. I've often said that Paul is the NBA's most overrated superstar, as he's NEVER led his team to even a SINGLE Conference Final (some leader: He was held to six points and committed five turnovers in Friday's home-opener). Sure, the Warriors are down but I'm not ready to cont them out. The Warriors will be glad to see that Paul George and Russell Westbrook have moved elsewhere plus it's VERY possible OKC may just be "peeking ahead" to Monday's game in Houston, where former Thunder stars Harden and Westbrook now 'live.' Golden St bounces back in a big way! Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | Top | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The reigning NBA champion Toronto Raptors were lucky to escape on "Ring Night' (Tuesday), as they needed OT to put away the New Orleans Pelicans, 130-122 ('miracle' cover). However, Friday night's game at Boston against the Celtics had nothing to do with good or bad luck, as the Raptors coughed up a seven-point lead in the final 10 minutes of a 112-106 setback. The Raptors are scheduled to play 14 sets of back-to-back games this season, slightly above the league average of 12.4, and the first of those 14 comes tonight in Chicago. The Bulls won just 22 games in 2018-19 but has come within a 'whisker' of opening 2-0 this season. The Bulls dropped a 126-125 decision at Charlotte on Wednesday, before winning 110-102 at Memphis last night. Both teams played last night but for Chicago, it is the team's home opener. Pascal Siakam has been outstanding in the first two games of the post-Kawhi Leonard era for Toronto, totaling 67 points and 26 rebounds while going 7-for-12 from three-point range. Veteran PG Kyle Lowry has stepped up without Leonard as well, averaging 25.5 points and 6.5 assists in the first two games of the season. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka has scored 13 points off the bench in each of the first two games. Toronto head coach Nick Nurse will need to develop a deeper rotation (especially in back-to-backs like this), as only eight Raptors logged time in Tuesday's season-opening victory against New Orleans and just nine did so during a 112-106 road loss to the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Zach LaVine scored a modest 16 points in the season opener but was 13-for-23 from the floor in Friday’s victory (37 points) and grabbed six rebounds, as Chicago outscored Memphis 63-42 in the second half. Power forward Lauri Markkanen recorded 35 points and 17 rebounds in the season-opener but then missing nine of his 10 FG attempts (scored just nine points) plus turned over the ball five times against the Grizzlies. How about some consistency, guys? In contrast, rookie guard Coby White has been impressive in his first two NBA contests, scoring 17 points in the opener and coming back with 25 while adding six assists in the win over the Grizzlies (he scored 21 points in Chicago's big second half). Toronto swept Chicago 4-0 last season (average MOV was 19.2 points!) and note that Kawhi played in just two of them. Obviously, Kawhi was the key to Toronto's title last season but while the Raptors were 41-19 in the regular season in his 60 appearances, they were also 17-5 when he was in “load management” mode. Let's also not forget that Toronto also still has SIX of its seven major contributors back (only Green left with Kawhi) and the Raptors have 'owned' Chicago, having won NINE in a row over the Bulls. Let's also remember that Chicago was a 'money-burning' 14-27 ATS at home last season. Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The Jazz are playing in the 'loaded' Western Conference but Quin Snyder has led the team to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Reports are that the Jazz have signed him to a long-term contract extension and it's well-deserving. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court. The Jazz opened the season with an unimpressive 100-95 victory over the now-depleted OKC Thunder and tonight will visit Staples Center to take on the Lakers. The Lakers were outclassed by the Clippers on Tuesday night (many teams will be this season), losing 112-102. Utah's star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting and collected a career-best 12 rebounds in Wednesday's win. Mitchell became the fourth different player in Utah history to have at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in a season opener, joining Hall of Famers Karl Malone (four times) and Adrian Dantley ,as well as Carlos Boozer. However, the team's new PG, Mike Conley, suffered through a horrific 1-of-16 shooting performance while scoring five points in his team debut. Some good news was that Bojan Bogdanovic, another key off-season addition, scored 16 points in 24 minutes, despite missing part of the game after twisting his left ankle. The Lakers jumped out to a 13-2 lead over the Clippers on Tuesday night but were quickly caught. However, a 15-0 run in the third quarter put the Lakers ahead but they folded down the stretch, getting outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter. Davis had 25 points and 10 rebounds in his LA debut, while LBJ added 18 points, nine rebounds and eight assists (shot just 7 of 19). The surprising star was guard Danny Green, who has 28 points on 10-14 shooting (including 7 of 9 on threes). There's been a lot of hype with A.D. joining LBJ in LA but it's fair to say the jury is still out on the Lakers (Kuzma returning will give us a better idea). That said, the Jazz were a 50-win team last season, while the Lakers won just 37 games. Still, the Lakers beat the Jazz in both games played at Staples, one with LBJ and one without. The Lakers have to be a little bit 'pissed' at losing Tuesday's game vs the Clippers (and Kawhi), so I think the Jazz are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time! Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the 2018-19 season by 'aying an egg' at Philly on Wednesday, losing 107-93. All five Philly starters scored in double digits, while the Celtics shot 36.7% as a team (including 26.9% on threes), with newcomer Kemba Walker scoring 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting. The Raptors began their title defense with a 130-122 overtime win against New Orleans on Tuesday at home. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet scored 34 points apiece as Toronto had a successful first step in its post-Kawhi Leonard era. However, the Raptors never came close to putting away the Pelicans (playing with Zion and MANY new players). VanVleet started just 28 games during Toronto's title run after coming off the bench exclusively in his first two seasons but he figures to be a catalyst for the starting five and showed his readiness in the opener by shooting 12-for-18 from the floor and dishing out a team-high seven assists (34 points were a career-high). Siakam's effort was no surprise, as he was the NBA's Most Improved Player in the regular season and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. Toronto played with a short bench on Tuesday, as just eight players got "PT." The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). However, Walker 'flopped' in his Boston debut (see above) and while Jayson Tatum scored 21, he was only 8-of-22 from the floor, including 4-of-14 inside the arc. The bright spot in the opener was the play of forward Gordon Hayward. He averaged just 11.5 PPG in primarily coming off the bench in 2018-19, his first season back from a devastating leg injury sustained during his first game as a Celtic in 2017. However, back in the starting rotation, Hayward scored 25 on Wednesday to pace the team, ahead of Tatum's 21. Boston couldn’t handle Phiily's frontcourt of Embiid-Horford and Harris plus Simmons added a line of 24-8-9. However, expect a bounce-back here at the TD Garden. The Raptors were VERY lucky to cover on "Ring Night," despite a career-high from VanVleet and a monster game from Siakam. The Raptors can't count on similar efforts here, as the Celtics make their home debut. Conversely, look for Walker to put his Wednesday effort behind him in front of his new home crowd. Boston owns FIVE straight home wins over Toronto, going 4-1 ATS. This is Boston's night! Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Golden St Warriors have reached the NBA Finals in each of the last five seasons, winning the title three times. However, for the first time since the 2014-15 Warriors won the title, Golden State will enter a regular season without being the favorites in the Western Conference. The Warriors lost Kevin Durant to free agency after falling to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals last spring and are also expected to spend most (all?) of season without All-Star guard Klay Thompson. Also, a key contributor to those championship teams, Andre Iquodala, is playing in Memphis. The Warriors played three times at their new San Francisco-based home in the preseason but tonight's contest against the LA Clippers will be the first regular season game played at Chase Center. The Clippers remade the top of their roster with the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the off-season, although George is not ready to play, as he continues to rehab from shoulder surgery. Without George, the Clippers relied on Leonard and their talented bench to beat the Lakers 112-102 in their season-opener Tuesday night. Kawhi had 30 points (only starter in double digits) and each of the four reserves used scored in double figures, totaling 60 points. Veteran sixth man Lou Williams led the "Bench Brigade" with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Harrell added 17 (he averaged 16.6 & 6.5 in 26 minutes LY). The Clippers withstood an opening 13-2 run by the Lakers and later a 15-0 run, by holding the Lakers to 17 points in the final quarter of the 10-point win. As noted above, Durant and Iquodala have moved on and Thompson is sidelined. However, head coach Steve Kerr has new additions D'Angelo Russell (formerly with Brooklyn), Glenn Robinson III (Detroit Pistons) and Marquese Chriss (Cleveland Cavaliers). Of course, Curry is the leader and as Kerr stated, "It's the perfect time physically and mentally where everything's come together," Kerr old reporters of Curry during training camp. "He's in his prime age-wise, strength and conditioning-wise and defensively he's seen everything that's come his way. Teams have played him every possible way that you could think of, and he's had years now to work on counters. So, he's kind of in his sweet spot right now, and he has been the last couple years. And hopefully that continues for the next few years. But he's an amazing player." Then there is the ever-aggressive Draymond Green, who is one of the few defenders that has the capability to slow down Kawhi. Clippers are off the 'high' of beating the Lakers on Tuesday, while for the first time since 2/20/14, the Warriors are a home dog. They beat the Rockets 102-99 (OT) in that one at plus-1.5. No OT needed here, as the Warriors grab the win. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Phi 76ers at 7:35 ET. Philadelphia watched Kawhi Leonard's shot bounce multiple times off the rim and then through the basket to eliminate them in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in May. The Sixers then had to regroup and rebuild their roster, after losing Jimmy Butlerto the Heat and JJ Redick to the Pelicans. Philly got guard Josh Richardson from Miami in the Butler deal but the team's key acquisition was getting Al Horford to leave key rival Boston and sign with the 76ers. That duo joins All-Star center Joel Embiid and all-around standout Ben Simmons. The Celtics not only lost Horford but also lost Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn. The good news is that Boston added Kemba Walker from Charlotte, who averaged a career-high 25.6 PPG with the Hornets last season. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). Embiid ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring (27.5), second in rebounding (13.6) and sixth in blocks (1.9) while playing a career-high 64 games last season. He'll anchor the mammoth front line with Horford and 6-9 Tobias Harris, who averaged a career-high 20 points in 2018-19. The 6-10 Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) was one of three players in the league to record at least 10 triple-doubles. Also, don't dismiss the addition of Josh Richardson, who will replace J.J. Redick. He averaged a career-high 16.6 PPG with Miami last season. Boston has had Philly’s number the past couple of years and won another three of four last season (7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings) bu t 'Sixer-killer' Kyrie Irving has moved on to Brooklyn, while Al Horford is now in a Philadelphia uniform. His versatility and ability to spell Joel Embiid should be big for Philly this coming season. I expect the 76ers to make a statement with a 'comfortable' win (meaning cover) against their recent nemesis. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-19 | Wolves v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season *Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). Irving will make his regular-season debut for the Nets on Wednesday against the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota made its first playoff appearance in 14 years in 2017-18 by going 47-35 but the Timberwolves took a step back in 2018-19, falling to 36-46. In contrast, the Nets went 42-20 last season, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. The T-wolves revolve around star centers Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 24.4 PPG and a career-high 12.4 RPG last season. Minnesota struck out in its pursuit of any big name acquisitions this off-season, but it filled some holes around Towns with the additions of forwards Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman. I hardly see that as being enough. A healthy Jeff Teague will help but while Andrew Wiggins averaged 18.1 PPG last season, he shot a career-low 41.2 percent from the floor (has he proved worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2014 draft?). Irving will join fellow guards Spencer Dinwiddie (16.8 & 4.6 APG) and Caris LeVert (13.7). Throw in Joe Harris (13.7), who led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and the Nets own a talented backcourt. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and given a two-year extension worth $29 million this week. Center Jarrett Allen took a big step in his second season, averaging 10.9 & 8.4 while shooting 59 percent from the floor (tied for seventh in the NBA). Obviously, the Nets become a lot more interesting whenever Kevin Durant suits up, but look at what head coach Kenny Atkinson did last season. The Nets were just 8-18 through Dec 5, before winning 19 of 24 games to reach 27-23 through Jan 25. The Nets finished 42-40 and I expect them to be better this season. As for the T-wolves, NOT so much. Minnesota was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season (allowed 114.0 PPG) and went a pathetic 11-30 SU on the road. Kyrie wins his Brooklyn debut, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers and bowing out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. The Detroit Pistons have a new head coach in Dwane Casey but he's hardly new to the NBA, as he won the 2017-18 Coach of the Year award with the Toronto Raptors. Six-time All-Star Blake Griffin will miss the start of the season due to hamstring and knee soreness. It's likely he will miss several games, with the team saying he will be reevaluated in the first week of November. PG Jackson and newly forward Markieff Morris are both listed day-to-day with nagging injuries. Detroit also added former MVP Derrick Rose but we all know his injury history. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down witha season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team and has raised his activity level to five-on-five scrimmages but there is still no timetable for his retur. His absence will hurt a little less due to a pair of shrewd off-season additions, Malcolm Brogdon (Milwaukee), Jeremy Lamb (Charlotte) and TJ Warren. Brogdon has averaged 12.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting on threes in his three seasons with Milwaukee, Lamb averaged a career-high 15.3 PPG with Charlotte last season and Warren has posted averages of 19.6 and 18.0 PPG the last two years with Phoenix. The Pacers also own an excellent interior duo of center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.2 plus an NBA-best 2.7 blocked shots per game) and forward Domantas Sabonis, who made considerable career strides in 2018-19.He averaged 14.1 & 9.3 rebounds (he just signed a four-year, $77 million extension on Monday). The Pacers are a solid team (were 32-15 before Oladipo went down) and have made some excellent off-season moves. Griffin has been a career underachiever who always seems to get injured (no different to start this season). The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Season-Opening Tip-Off is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors are the defending NBA champions and help tip-off the 2019/20 NBA season by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the game has lost some luster, as not only is Kawhi Leonard now a Clipper but the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NBA Draft, Zion Williamson, is expected to be sidelined for the first month of the season. Of course, A.D. was traded by the Pelicans to the Lakers plusJulius Randle (who averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG with the Pelicans last season) signed with the Knicks. TNT knew about the trades/moves but can't too happy at Zion Williamson’s preseason knee injury. New Orleans will have FOUR new starters once Williamson returns, with PG Lonzo Ball and SF Brandon Ingram joining the team in the deal for Davis and center Derrick Favors coming over via trade from the Utah Jazz. The lone holdover is guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7), He's the best player in a crowded backcourt rotation that includes newcomers Josh Hart and JJ Redick along with holdovers Frank Jackson and E'Twaun Moore and rookie Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Head coach Alvin Gentry will have a heard time finding time for everyone and naturally, he can't wait for Zion to return. "It's just a situation where some nights, guys just aren't going to play," Gentry told reporters. "For us to be a really good team, you are going to have to accept that, with the understanding some nights the other guys are going to play. There's just no getting around it. We do have a lot of players who are very similar skill-wise who are multiple position guys." Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) is also in LA with Kawhi, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news is that head coach Nick Nurse has a familiar cast still around. Siakam (was the NBA's Most Improved Player and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry has been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without. He'll be asked to score more with Kawhi gone but don't forget that he is also a former Defensive Player of the Year. Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believe Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). The Pelicans are still "finding their way," while the Raptors will be out to prove that they can win without Kawhi. Raising the banner and handing out rings is typically a distraction but in this case I expect "We The North" to provide an electric atmosphere for tonight's contest. Toronto was a dominating 32-9 SU at home last season and has won SEVEN of its last eight meetings with New Orleans, which is now with A.D. & Randle, plus will have to wait awhile before Zion is ready. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. KD remained out in Game 3 for the Warriors and Klay Thompson joined him. Throw in the loss of backup center Kevon Looney and the defending champs suffered a 123-109 home loss to the Raptors. Kawhi led Toronto with 30 points and the remaining four starters all scored between 17 and 23 points, After combing for just 21 points in a Game 2 loss, Toronto guards Lowry and Green totaled 41 points, while nailing 11, three-pointers. PF Siakam and center Gasol added 35 points and 16 rebounds, after combining for 18 & 14 in that Game 2 loss. Steph Curry score a career playoff-high 47 points but while the Raptors shot 52.5 as a team, the Warriors connected on 39.6%. That's a recipe for losing by 14 points. Klay Thompson will return to the lineup for Golden State but Kevin Durant will again be sidelined Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points in the Game 3 win, his 13th 30-point outing of the postseason. Only SIX others in NBA history, Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason. Leonard carrying a Toronto franchise that now stands just TWO wins away from its first NBA title. History is on Toronto's side, as the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions! Thompson wanted to play in Game 3 before reluctantly agreeing with the training staff's view that it was too risky in terms that a re-injury might sideline him for the rest of the series. Curry was a one-man show in Game 3, as he poured in 47 points for his sixth career playoff 40-point outing, as well as contributing eight rebounds and seven assists. With Thompson back, expect the trio of Curry, Thompson and Green to be at its best in this almost "must-win" situation. The Warriors are best-known for their offense but Golden St has played great defense for good parts of the team's run of three titles in the last four seasons. Toronto shot 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 52.4 percent in Game 3 but the Raptors were held to just 37.2 percent from the floor (including 28.9 percent on three-pointers), while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss. That's the 'ticket' for Golden St in Game 4 and my 'bet.'. We are headed back to Toronto tied at 2-all, as the Warriors win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 8:07 ET. he Toronto Raptors own homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals but the Golden St Warriors entered the Finals as the favorite. After all, the Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles. Game 1 was Toronto's first-ever NBA Finals appearance, while Golden State's was playing in the team's 23rd Finals game since since 2015. The Warriors had won 12 straight playoff Game 1s, while the Raptors took the court just 3-15 in playoff openers . However, Toronto shot 50.6 percent from the floor and got strong performances from starters Pascal Siakam (32-8-5) Kawhi Leonard (23-8-5) and Marc Gasol (20 & 7), plus Fred VanVleet added 15 points off the bench in a 118-109 Game 1 victory. Curry had 34 points (his SIXTH straight 30-plus effort) and Thompson added 21 but Golden St's other three starters combined for just 18 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Green accounted for 10 of those points (he had another triple-double at 10-10-10), but shot just 2 of 9. The Warriors are still missing Kevin Durant (calf) and swingman Andre Iguodala (calf) is banged up. DeMarcus Cousins (quad) played for the first time since the first round in Game 1 but managed three points in eight minutes off the bench. His status is unclear. Siakam scored a postseason career-high in points on 14-of-17 shooting in Game 1, as KD's defense may have been missed more than his offense.That said, can Siakam possibly play that well again? How about Gasol or VanVleet? Leonard was solid in Game 1 but there remain 'whispers' that he's less than 100 percent, physically. Looking at Game 2, the Warriors are not in panic mode following the early loss. "The experience helps," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "Winning multiple championships helps because you have seen it all. There's also just the knowledge that you've been here before. You've been down. We have been up 3-1 and lost a series. We have been down 3-1 and won a series. Everything in between. So, nothing is going to catch these guys off guard, and they are very accustomed to the rhythm and tone of a seven-game series and how long it takes, how many twists and turns there are." My bet says the champs rise to the challenge and head back to Oakland tied at one-all.
Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The NBA Finals open Thursday and naturally, no one is surprised the Warriors are playing for their THIRD straight championship and FOURTH in five year. However, the Toronto Raptors will take the court tonight to play a game in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. The Warriors will open the series without Kevin Durant, who has been ruled out of Game 1 with a calf injury. Center DeMarcus Cousins (quadriceps) could play in the opening contest. "His next step is individual court work," Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Durant at Wednesday's media availability. "That will be the next priority. Over the next couple of days, hopefully, he can ramp up. We have to see him practice before he can play a game. He hasn't practiced yet." The Raptors have ridden Kawhi Leonard (31.2 & 8.8) to the Finals and Toronto has homecourt advantage in the series due to a better regular-season record than Golden State. The Raptors won both regular-season meetings, 131-128 in overtime at Toronto on Nov 29 and 113-93 on Dec 12 in Oakland. Cousins suffered his injury on April 15 in Game 2 of the first-round series against the LA Clippers and he said Wednesday that he is ready to return. "I feel good," Cousins said. "My quad is coming along. It's healed for the most part."The bottom line is, do the Warriors even need Cousins (or Durant, for that matter)? Since KD went down in game 5 of the Houston series, Curry has been nearly unstoppable. He's averaged 35.8 PPG in the Warriors' last five games, never scoring less than 33 points or more than 37, in any game (talk about consistency). He capped that five-game run with a triple-double (37-13-11) in Golden St's Game 4 win over Portland (capping a 4-0 sweep). Draymond Green joined Curry in that contest with his own triple-double (18-14-11), marking the first time in NBA history that two teammates each delivered a triple-double in the same game. Green been a 'beats' since Game 6 of the LAC series, averaging 14.6-11.4-8.5 over an 11-game span, with eight double-doubles (including four triple-doubles). Throw in Klay Thompson (22.6 PPG since KD's been out) and the Warriors are just fine with or without KD or surely, Cousins. Leonard's performance in the 2019 playoffs has again having him being discussed as perhaps the best player in the NBA. That said, only Siakam (18.7 & 9.0) and Lowry (14.2-5.2-6.4) join him in double digits plus neither player as participated in an NBA Final. VanVleet comes in averaging 16.0 PPG over his last three games, connecting on 68% of his shots. Pause for a moment and note that even with this three-game outburst, VanVleet is averaging only 6.0 PPG on 35.9% shooting in Toronto's 18 playoff games. Yes, Leonard has led Toronto to where it has "never gone to before" but I won't overlook the team's 3-15 record in playoff openers (1-2 this postseason), especially against the champion Warriors. The Raptors have faced a series deficit in each round of the playoffs so far this year, so what changes here? Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. Toronto had a great chance to win Game 1 of this series but the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-run for a 108-100 victory. Milwaukee then routed Toronto in Game 2, 125-103 to take a 2-0 lead in the series. At the point, the Bucks were 10-1 SU & ATS in the 2019 playoffs. Oh, how things have changed since then! The Raptors have won the past THREE contests, including a 105-99 road win on Thursday that enabled them to take a 3-2 series lead. Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points in Game 5 (his fourth 30-point outing of the series) and has provided Toronto with the big-time performances the club was looking for when it acquired him from the San Antonio Spurs.The Bucks were up by 14 points early in Game 5 but entered the 4th quarter leading by just three. Toronto opened an eight point lead in that final period but Milwaukee tied it at 93-all with 2:44 left. However, it was Toronto which made the plays down the stretch. Milwaukee won a league-best 60 games in the regular season and Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (25.9-12.3-4.9 this postseason) was adamant that his team will still win the series. "We're not going to fold," Antetokounmpo said afterward. "Come on, man. Best team in the league, man. We're not going to fold. We're going to go in and give it everything we've got. We can't fold. We're going to come back to Milwaukee." Malcolm Brogdon made his first start of the postseason in Game 5 and had 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. PG Eric Bledsoe scored a series-best 20 but neither effort was good enough. "I'm not afraid of the moment," Leonard told reporters afterward. "This is what I work out for in the summer. I'm just trying to win. It's a matter of me being aggressive and don't shy away from anything." Leonard carried Toronto in teh Game 5 win, as Toronto's other four starters shot a combined 10 of 35 from the floor (28.6%). However, backup PG Fred VanVleet scored 21 points on seven 3-pointers in the Game 5 victory and is 10-for-12 from long range over the last two games, after being 2-for-11 over the first three games Milwaukee not only owned the NBA's best regular season record (60-22) but it also owned its best ATS mark, as well (47-34-1). That's a rare 'daily double. Expect Antetokounmpo to play 'HUGE,' Middleton to NOT go 2-of- 9 again plus I love the fact that Milwaukee's starting guards (see above) combined for 38 points. Can Kawhi really do it 'alone?' I'm with Giannis, this series is headed back to Milwaukee for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game 5 Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. Kawhi Leonard (31.8 PPG & 8.5 RPG) had carried Toronto's offense through the team's first two playoff series, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) were the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the first two rounds. As for Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, he led Milwaukee to an 8-1 SU & ATS start to the postseason, averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds. However, I predicted this series was NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Antetokounmpo's supporting class had been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looked ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. More notably, Milwaukee's bench was averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee was "off' in Game 1 but outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-0 run to win AND cover, 108-100. In Game 2, it was all Milwaukee, as the Bucks won 125-103. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3 and despite Giannis and Middleton combining for just 21 points (on 8 of 32 shooting), the Bucks had chances to win, before falling in OT. Leonard was the star (36 points) for Toronto and Siakam added 25 & 11. The Bucks then followed with their worst game of the series in Game 4. The team's 2-0 lead has evaporated, after Toronto's 120-102 victory on Tuesday. Leonard, who had topped 30 points in each of the first three games of the series, had just 19 in Game 4 while often appearing to be hindered by a left leg injury. PG Kyle Lowry scored 25 points plus three bench players excelled. SF Powell had 19, PF Ibaka had 17 & 13 (his best game of the series) and PG Van Vleet had 13. The series is now tied at two-all, with tonight's Game 5 looming large.I don'r remotely trust the Raptors on the road. Yes, they were 2-0 in Orlando but is that a big deal? In five road games since (against Philly and Milwaukee), Toronto is 1-4 SU and ATS, with those four losses coming by an average of 15.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 6-1 SU & ATS at home during the playoffs, upping the team's home record this season to 39-9 SU, while averaging a whopping 119.1 points. Milwaukee's bench will bounce back (don't expect Toronto's reserves to come anywhere close to performing like they did in Game 4) and expect Giannis to be brilliant. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. Golden St was down 15 at the half in Game 2 but a 39-24 third quarter put them back in position to win it in the 4th. Fast-forward to Game 3 in Portland. The Blazers opened a 66-53 halftime lead but once again, the Warriors dominated in the third quarter, outscoring the Blazers 29-13, before pulling away in fourth en route to a 110-99 triumph.The Blazers WILL NOT come back and win four in a row but the question here is, can they win this Game 4? Draymond Green scored a postseason-high 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and 12 assists on Saturday (his third triple-double of the playoffs), setting the tone for a Warriors team that fell into an 18-point hole in the first half and was down 14 with 8:08 left in the third quarter. His ability to push the tempo and get the rest of his teammates to feed off his energy propelled the Warriors to a victory. That said, let's NOT forget Curry, who scored a team high 36 points, his fourth straight 30-plus effort since K.D. was lost to a calf injury. Portland didn't just fold in the third quarter, as they totaled just 33 points in the entire second half, after putting up 63 points in the first half. "Our offense fell apart," Portland coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "We missed some shots. Took some tough shots. Didn't move the ball as well. They were scoring, so we were taking it out of the net. Didn't get any transition. So, I said at the beginning of the series, to beat Golden State, you've got to be able to score. Scoring 33 in the second half is not going to do it." Damian Lillard has yet to get rolling offensively in the series (he's shooting 32.6 percent from the floor and has committed 14 turnovers in the first three games, plus he and McCollum have been totally outplayed by Curry and Thompson. in the series. Is this "All she wrote?" The Warriors are just one win shy of earning their FIFTH straight NBA Finals appearance, something that hasn't been done since the 1960s Boston Celtics. As to the team's back-to-back wins in Games 2 and 3, the Warriors have become the first team in NBA history to rally from at least a 13-point deficit in consecutive playoff wins. However, SF Andre Iguodala (lower leg) left Saturday's game and is the Warriors don't expect him to play here. As for K.D, word is he only plays if the Warriors are forced to a Game 7 (fat chance that happens). That said, I am not tasked to "look ahead," just focus on the here and now. Portland has shown it can play with Golden State in Games 2 and 3 but the team has NOT been able to "close he show." I've had the Blazers in Games 2 and 3 and will "go to the well" with them again, here. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4 to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-2 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-4 SU run on their home floor. Portland closed a three-point favorite in Game 3 but there has been a line 'swing' of right about a 'TD!". I'm 'barking' with the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:05 ET. The Bucks needed a 32-17 fourth quarter to win and cover Game 1 against the Raptors, including ending the game on a 10-0 run. I had the Bucks in that one and came right back with them in Game 2, saying that it was my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee was an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason at that point and after its Game 1 win, checked in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. I said "lay the points," again. The Bucks had their way with the Raptors in Game 2, jumping out to a 35-21 first quarter lead and a 64-39 advantage at the half. After trailing by as many as 28 points, Toronto made a push to draw to within 13 in the third quarter but the final was 125-103. Antetokounmpo finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds but Ersan Ilyasova (17 points), Malcolm Brogdon (14) and George Hill (13) combined to go 17-of-29 from the floor off the bench in Game 2, with each of the three logging more than 20 minutes. "We have a great group of coaches who trust us, and I think it's all about chemistry," Ilyasova told reporters. "When we go to locker room, even when we lose the game, everybody stays positive. It's just we're all about the next game. I think for us it's big time when we go to the playoffs." Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points in each of the first two games but in Game 2, Toronto's other four starters combined for just 33 points. Center Marc Gasol struggled to two points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and placed the blame for the loss on himself. However, he was hardly alone. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry, who scored 30 points on 10-of-15 shooting in Game 1, slumped to 15 points on 4-of-13 in Game 2. "The ball," as they say, is Toronto's court. The Raptors were 32-9 during the regular season at home and have gone 5-2 in the playoffs. Toronto has been best-known for its underachieving postseason but the difference in this year's team is, Kawhi Leonard. He's averaging 31.7 PPG (on 52.7% shooting) and 8.5 RPG in the postseason. It's up to him to 'carry' the Raptors to a win. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Golden State Warriors have gone up 2-0 in their series with the Blazers, despite the absence of K.D. (Durant was averaging a NBA postseason-high of 34.2 PPG). The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I thought they outplayed us for much of the night, the majority of the night, but we brought enough competitive fire in the second half to overcome their great play. We've been here before. I think our experience helped us. We've done this a few times, and yeah, we stole it for sure. They outplayed us." As for Portland, the Blazers head home with some confidence due to the way they played for most of Game 2. "You know, you hate to lose a game, but I think we showed that we can compete with them," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "It was a much better game than we played in Game 1. Now we've got to go get two at home, but it starts with Game 3. But yeah, we beat them in the regular season, and we did play a good game, much better game at both ends of the floor tonight. So, we've got to take that into Game 3." This series was billed as a battle between the NBA's two-best backcourt duos. After two games, Curry and Thompson have 'KO'd' Lillard and McCollum. The Warriors' dynamic duo has combined to average 56.5 PPG, while the Blazers' twosome is averaging just 40.5 PPG. Curry has averaged 35.3 PPG in the three games KD has missed, with Thompson chipping in 25.7. Since Game 6 of the LAC series, Draymond Green is averaging 13.7-10.7-7.9. Maybe the Warriors can "win it all," without KD? Lillard came into the series averaging 28.4 PPG in the 2019 playoffs and McCollum came in averaging 26.6. A return home HAS to help. Here's the bottom line. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4 to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-1 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-3 SU run on their home floor. "Home is where the heart is" (right?) and expect Lillard and McCollum to respond plus don't ignore the fact that Seth Curry matched his postseason high with 16 points off the bench in Game 2 and that Rodney Hood is averaging 14.5 points off the bench in the series. If not NOW, WHEN for Portland? Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. The Eastern Conference finals features the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the series averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard averaged 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in his 12 playoff games, including setting a franchise record with nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history. Game 1 was was somewhat of a surprise, as the underdog Raptors led most of the way on Wednesday. However, the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 over the final 12 minutes, including 10-0 run in the final 3:31 of the contest for a 108-100 win and COVER! Talk about a 'miracle' ATS win for Milwaukee bettors. Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points but only two came in the final stanza (both on FTs), as he struggled through a 10-of-26 shooting performance. PG Lowry was great, scoring 30 points (his 2019 playoff-high), including 14 poinst in the 4th quarter. Incredibly, he was the only Toronto player to make a FG in the 4th quarter (5 of 7), as the other seven players went a combined 0-15. In fact, on the game, take away Lowry and Leonard and the remainder of the Raptors went 14 of 51 from the floor (27.4%). Giannis was not spectacular but he did have a double-double (24 & 14). The game's breakout star was center Brook Lopez, who scored 29 points (a career playoff-high) with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots. That's after averaging just 5.4 points and 4.2 rebounds in the five-game conference semifinals against the Boston Celtics. Another piece of good news for Milwaukee was that combo guard Malcolm Brogdon scored 15 points off the bench (in 27 minutes), after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston. He had missed the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. The Raptors HAVE to feel that they let Game 1 "get away," while the Bucks believe they can improve Friday night in Game 2, after shaking off their rust. Obviously, both teams can improve in Game 2. The Raptors shot 37 percent (34-for-92) overall, including 35.7 percent (15-for-42) from behind the arc. The Bucks shot 39.8 percent (37-for-93) from the floor and only 25 percent (11-for-44) from three-point territory. I had the 'lucky' Game 1 winner in Milwaukee and wrote prior to that game, that this series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench entered averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. In an "off game" for both teams, Milwaukee's bench outscored Toronto's, 22-12 (winning margin was eight points!). It's my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee is an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason (no other remaining team comes close to matching that) and after its Game 1 win, checks in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. Lay the poitst again, as this win comes with more 'breathing room!'
Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson totally out-played Portland's backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum in Game 1. Curry scored 36 points (made NINE three-pointers) and Thompson added 26. In contrast, Lillard had 19 points and McCollum 17. What's more, the Warriors shot 50.5% from the floor, including making 17 of 33 three-pointers. The Blazers made just 36.1% from the floor, including 7 of 28 on three-pointers. Curry took several uncontested three-point shots during his fourth 30-point effort of the postseason and Damian Lillard knows that something needs to change. "That was very poor execution defensively on our part," Lillard said. "Just having our bigs back that far; understanding the team we are playing against, they are not going to shoot midrange jumpers and try to attack the rim. If they see the opportunity to shoot a 3, they are going to tell you. They shoot it at a high clip. We've got to bring our guys up and run them off the line, and (Tuesday) they were setting solid screens and coming off shooting practice shots." Portland needs to shore its defense plus CAN'T commit another 21 turnovers. Kevin Durant is expected to miss Game 2 and after ranking 28th out of 30 teams in points off the bench during the regular season, the Warriors have gotten some much-needed help from its reserves in Game 6 vs Houston and in Game 1 vs the Blazers. Kevon Looney had 14 points and Shaun Livingston 11, as the Warriors dominated the Rockets 33-17 off the bench in that 118-113, series-clinching win. Then in Tuesday's Game 1, all eight Warriors backups who participated recording a positive plus/minus as Golden State's reserves outscored their Portland counterparts 36-28. However, will the Warriors be able to keep that up? The Warriors are just 19-28-1 ATS at home this season (including 3-4 in the playoffs) and remember won Game 4 at OKC plus Games 2 and 7 at Denver, which was the NBA's best home team this year. Head coach Terry Stotts is confident his team will shoot better and NOT turn the ball over as much. Lillard noted after Game 1 that Portland shot horribly, while Golden St shot "lights out," yet the Blazers trailed by just six points entering the fourth quarter. I agree. Take the points!
Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game 1 Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. The Eastern Conference finals comes down to the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Game 1 is Wednesday night and the series features tow of the NBA's best. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in 12 playoff games, including a franchise record nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history. Leonard is carrying Toronto's offense, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) are the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the postseason. Regarding Lowry, he's been a HUGE underachiever in his postseason career and he's shooting just 41.5 percent from the floor (28.1% on threes), so far. In contrast, Antetokounmpo's supporting class has been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) have more than looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looks ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. Yes, Leonard makes Toronto a much more viable contender but can I really overlook the team's 3-14 record in playoff openers (1-1 this postseason)? This series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench is averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's is averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee comes in 37-9 at home this year (including the playoffs, averaging 119.2 PPG. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
My NBA 10* 2nd Round ‘GAME OF YEAR’ is on the Den Nuggets at 3:30 ET. The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28). Their Game 5 home rout of the Blazers (124-98) put them ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 but the Blazers responded with a 119-108 home in Game 6 (Portland's 13th win in its last 14 home games), sending this series back to Denver for a Game 7. Portland's dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (29.8-4.3-5.8 this postseason) and McCollum (24.5-5.5-3.6) were HUGE in Game 6, scoring 32 and 30 points, respectively. However, backup Rodney Hood erupted for 25 on 8-of-12 shooting, posting a career playoff-high. Hood is averaging 16 points on 60 percent shooting vs the Nuggets. PF Zach Collins chipped in 14 points in Game 6 and the Blazers have outscored Denver by 22 points in 113 minutes with Hood and Collins on the floor during the series (according to NBA.com). An issue for Portland issue has been center Enes Kanter, who is averaging just 6.0 PPG on 26.1 percent shooting over the last three games, after averaging 19.7 on 60 percent through the first three contests in the series. Denver's star center Nikola Jokic is having quite a first-ever postseason. He's averaging 24.8-13.0-8.9 with 11 double-doubles in 13 games (four, triple-doubles). He's averaging 26.4-14.4-8.8 assists against Portland in this series. PG Jamal Murray is averaging 21.6-4.2-4.7 in the playoffs, including 24.7 PPG vs Portland. Veteran PF Paul Millsap is playing as he did when he was in his prime vs Portland, averaging at 18.7 & 9.0. The Golden State Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals for the fifth straight year and await the winner of this Game 7. I've noted above the play of Hood and Collins off the bench for Portland but I've said all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Yes, Jokic is having a "breakout" postseason plus Murry and Millsap have been excellent in this series but note that NINE Denver players have gotten into all 13 games this postseason for the Nuggets. Jokic and Murray are topping 20 PPG, Millsap is averaging 15.0 and Harris is at 14.2. However, FIVE others are chipping in from 4.6 to 9.2 PPG. I expect Jokic to again lead the way (he's dominated Kanter lately) but I also expect Denver's depth to be a difference-maker. Also, Hood and Collins WON'T replicate their Game 6 heroics here for the Blazers. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning FIVE of seven at home in the postseason and the Nuggets are 31-6 in their last 37 home games. There have been 133 Game 7s in NBA history and home teams have won 105, or 79%. I'm NOT about to "take the points" with the Blazers, as in 48 home games this season (regular and postseason, combined), Denver has outscored its opponents 113.0-to-102.9 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 10:35 ET. The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28) and with Tuesday's 124-98 home rout of the Blazers, are ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 (Can you say 'Melo?). Star center Nikola Jokic continued his stellar series with 25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 and he is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists against Portland. He's averaging 24.5-13.1-9.0 in his first-ever postseason with 10 double-doubles in 12 games (including four triple-doubles). Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard and McCollum came up woefully short in Game 5. Despite scoring 22 points, Lillard was just 9-of-21 shooting, including 2-of-9 from three-point range. As for McCollum, he had just a2 points, while making only 5 of 16 shots (31.3%). I've noted all season that Denver is arguably the league's deepest team and in back-to back impressive wins (116-112 at Portland in Game 4 and Game 5's home blowout), 13-year veteran power forward Paul Millsap has scored 21 and 24 points. He's been a difference-maker in the series, averaging 19.0 & 9.6, while recording three double-doubles. In contrast, Portland PF Al-Farouq Aminu managed just three points on 1-of-8 shooting in Game 5, after scoring a series-best 19 points in Game 4. As for center Enes Kanter, he is honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset and got dominated by Jokic, scoring just nine points on 2-for-9 shooting (he did have a team-high eight rebounds). We've got two must-wins," Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters after Game 5. "Somebody was going to have a must-win after (Tuesday), and it's us. So we've got two must-wins ahead of us."That's pretty simple and I'm far from counting Portland out, here. Can Denver really beat them THREE in a row? After all, the Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. They were just 1-4 SU on the road in the postseason, prior to their Game 4 win. As for Portland, the Blazers had not lost a home game since March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC, when its 12-game home winning streak was broken in Game 4. The Nuggets are headed back for a SECOND straight Game 7 at home. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Showdown (Part 3) is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Houston Rockets have the momentum in this series, having won Games 3 and 4 at home to knot this Western Conference semifinals series at 2-2. However, the Rockets will have to figure out a way to win a game in Oakland if they are to finally get the best of the Warriors in this series. The Houston/Golden St rivalry has turned into a best-of-three for the second straight year. Houston broke the 2-2 tie with a win in Game 5 at home in last year's Western finals but Golden State then swept the final two games to reach the NBA Finals, where the Warriors captured their second straight championship and third in four years (note: Chris Paul missed Games 6 & 7). Houston has made 66 three-pointers in the series, 26 more than the Warriors. James Harden has drained 18 three-pointers while averaging 35.8 points but two other Houston players have been key. Shooting guard Eric Gordon has made 16 three-pointers while averaging 23 points and power forward P.J. Tucker is averaging 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds over the past three games, while also harassing K.D. However, Kevin Durant is averaging 36 points in the series, with a high game of 46 and a low output of 29. However, Splash Brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have not held up their end. Curry is 12-of-46 (26.1%) from three-point range in the series and Thompson is just 8-of-26 (30.8%). Joining the above-mentioned trio in the starting lineup have been Green and Iquodola. Green is averaging 15.8-11.2-8.2 and Iquodala 13.6 & 5.2. Iguodala has played 29 or more minutes in all four games of the series. He played more than 29 minutes just seven times during the regular season. He's also started all four games alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Green, after never having joined that All-Star quartet in the starting lineup in any regular-season game during his Warriors career. Here's what happened down the stretch in the last two games at Houston. Houston was clinging to a one-point lead in Gamer 3 when Iguodala's three-pointer put Golden State up 112-110 with 45 seconds remaining. Harden made two free throws a few seconds after that to tie it and Durant missed a jump shot on the other end to give Houston a chance to win it in regulation. Chris Paul was in the lane when Klay Thompson forced a jump ball. Harden got the ball but didn't have time to get a shot off before the buzzer. Houston then won by five in OT (who will forget Curry's blown dunk shot?) In Game 4, the Rockets were up by nine before the Golden State scored the next seven points, capped by a three from Stephen Curry, to get within 110-108 with 19 seconds left. Harden made one of two free throws with 11.5 seconds left. Kevin Durant missed a three after that. But the Warriors got the rebound and Curry also missed a 3-point attempt before Golden State was forced to foul Chris Paul. "We got a couple of wide-open looks," Durant said. "They just didn't fall for us." Paul made one of two free throws with 2.9 seconds left to secure the four-point victory. However, Golden St knows it out-shot Houston 48.2 percent to 44.4 and out-rebounded the visitors 41.5 per game to 33.5 in the first two games of this series. We saw BOTH home teams (in similar 2-2 series) win in blowout fashion last night and after ca$hing two straight wins on the Rockets, I'm "all in" on the defending champs in this one. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks didn't panic after losing 112-90 at home to the Celtics in Game 1 of this series. The Bucks didn't need to make any drastic changes, they just needed to increase the aggressiveness and execution. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way, averaging 30.5 & 11.0 in Games 2 and 3, with Milwaukee shooting 47.4% as a team and scoring 123 points in both wins. Boston's star, PG Kyrie Irving, scored 26 points on 12-of-21 shooting in the Game 1 win but went a combined 12-of-40 (30.0%) from the floor in Games 2 and 3, including 3-of-13 from three-point range (23.1%). Antetokounmpo led the way in Game 3 with 32 points but it was the supporting cast that pushed Milwaukee over the top. Shooting guard Pat Connaughton scored 14 points and PG George Hill led the "Bench Mob" with 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes. For Boston, after shooting 54.0% in its surprising Game 1 upset, the Celtics have made just 69 of 167 shots (41.3%) in Games 2 and 3. The Bucks' playoff win in Boston in Game 3 was rather noteworthy. It was the first playoff win in Boston for the Bucks since May 13, 1987. Yes, Milwaukee was just 0-5 in that span but FOUR of those losses came in an Eastern Conference first-round series last year, when the Celtics survived in a seven-game series (home team won all seven games). Getting back to Boston, its Game 3 home loss was just the Celtics' SECOND home playoff loss in 14 games the last two postseasons. If Boston head back to Milwaukee down 3-1, it would likely be "all she wrote." Expect Kyrie to shine and I'm backing Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 3:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers dropped the first game of their Eastern Conference opening round series at home vs the Brooklyn Nets but rebounded to win and cover the next four games. Could it be deja vu all over again for Philly in their semifinal series against the Toronto Raptors? The 76ers were manhandled 108-95 by the Raptors in Game 1 but then won Game 2 by the score of 94-89, which broke a 14-game losing streak for the 76ers in Toronto. Was that win a breakthrough? It sure looked like that in Game 3, as the 76ers routed the Raptors, 116-95. All five Philly starters scored in double digits but Embiid (33 & 10) and Butler (22-9-9) were the key performers. Leonard's been outstanding for Toronto this postseason, averaging 31.5 PPG on shooting 57.9%, including averaging 37.7 points on 60.9 percent shooting in this series. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry is shooting 36.1 percent from the floor in the series and slumped to seven points on 2-of-10 from the floor in Thursday's loss. Lowry's had a history of very erratic play in the postseason. Maybe a bigger problem for Toronto is that the 6-9 Pascal Siakam, who had a breakout regular season and is averaging 23.3 points and 5.7 rebounds on 36.3 minutes through the first three games. He's listed as doubtful due to a right calf contusion. Embiid has been hampered by a sore left knee throughout the postseason but had a playoff career-high 33 points to go along with 10 rebounds and five blocked shots in only 28 minutes in Game 3. He became the first player since Boston's Kevin McHale to post at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in less than 30 minutes in a playoff game. Butler was the star in Philly's Game 2 win and was excellent again in Game 3 (see above). Not only did all five Philly starters reach double digits in Game 3 but all five are averaging double figures during Philly's eight postseason games. I realize Philly looks to be in a great position in teh series, especially with Siakam listed as doubtful but don't be surprised to see him "give it a go." However, I'm still not completely sold on Philly plus one never knows when Embiid's sore left knee will act up. As for Toronto, Leonard is capable of carrying his team plus as noted above, Lowry has been know to follow dreadful efforts in the playoffs with excellent ones. Also, Ibaka (15.0 & 8.1 in the regular season) is overdue for a big game, as is veteran center Gasol, who has been dominated by Embiid (Gasol is 6-of-20 from the floor in the series). The Raptors had held opponents under 100 points in six straight playoff games (winning the first five), allowing the 76ers to shoot 51.2 percent from the floor in Game 3, while scoring 116 points. "I think we had six straight games of tremendous effort and tremendous defense, right?" Toronto head coach Nick Nurse asked reporters. "(Thursday) night we didn't have that, so again I think that the six in a row is what you're trying to get back to, with that kind of effort and whatever." Toronto has lost back-to-back games but has lost THREE straight just ONCE all season, way back from Nov 12-16. I'm "all over" the Raptors in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Showdown is on the Hou Rockets at 8:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors brushed aside the chatter about officiating after Game 1 (a 104 victory) and earned a 115-109 win in Game 2 on Tuesday. The teams have been off for three days when they resume their bitter rivalry tonight in Houston, as the Warriors look to take a commanding 3-0 advantage in Saturday's Game 3. The Rockets had their chances in each of teh first two games but it was the Warriors who made the big (key) plays. K.D. is averaging 34.2 PPG in the postseason but it's impossible to ignore the recent play of Green and Iquodala. With Cousins out, Kerr has returned to the starting lineup which won the team it first title, beating the Cavs in the 2015 NBA Finals. Iquodala, who won the 2015 Finals MVP, has been added to the starting lineup and he's averaged 15.0-4.3-3.3 the last three games, after averaging just 5.7 PPG during the regular season. Green has long been considered one of the NBA best overall players but he had a so-so season. However, he's averaged 15.0-11.7-8.7 the last three games. His defense, along with Iqoudala's, KD's and Thompson's, make the Warriors one helluva team. However, the Rockets have given the Warriors first the last couple years, but in the end, always seem to fall short. Will it change here in 2019? James Harden had to leave Game 2 briefly after getting scratched in both eyes. "He got raked pretty good in the eyes, but that's him," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "I mean, I didn't have a doubt that he was coming back unless it was something catastrophic. I'm sure he would have loved to play better. Under the circumstances, I thought he played great." Harden averaged 36.1-6.6-7.5 in the regular season but he's shooting just 37.7% in the postseason (down from 44.2%), while averaging 29.0 PPG. This is Houston's game to win.The Rockets have had off since Tuesday and falling behind 0-3 leaves them in an impossible position. As good as Golden St is, Houston has won the last two season series against them and led 3-2 in the Western Conference finals last year, before Paul got hurt and couldn't play in Games 6 & 7 (Golden St won both). All hands are on deck for this one and if not now for Houston, when? Good luck...Larry |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. Boston was able to get past Milwaukee last year, escaping with a Game 7 win at home to eliminate the upstart Bucks in the first round. However, the Bucks won more games than any team in this year's NBA (60) and opened their second round series with the Celtics this postseason as prohibitive favorites, after averaging 121.8 points during a four-game, first-round sweep of the Detroit Pistons. Boston won 49 games during the regular season (11 fewer than Milwaukee) and while the Celtics also delivered a four-game sweep in the first round (over the Pacers), Sunday's Game 1 results has to be considered stunning. Fourth-seeded Boston frustrated Milwaukee MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and received an outstanding performance from Al Horford while posting a dominating 112-90 victory. Kyrie Irving opened the series with 26 points and 11 assists (no surprise, as he's led the team in scoring all season) but it was Horford's performance that had all talking after the game. Horford had 20 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks in the 22-point triumph and led the charge against Antetokounmpo, who was just 7-of-21 shooting while scoring 22 points. Horford was on the floor at the same time as Antetokounmpo for 22 minutes. During that time, Antetokounmpo made just 2 of 11 shots and had two shots blocked by Horford, as the Bucks posted a 63.3 offensive rating in those minutes. The top-seeded Bucks shot just 34.8 percent from the floor and had 11 shots blocked! Forward Khris Middeton (18.3-6.0-4.3 during the regular season) contributed 16 points, 10 rebounds and six assists but Milwaukee's other three starters combined for just 12 points on 3-of-17 shooting. So what should we expect in Game 2? Boston not only played great D in Game 1 but also shot 54 percent. It was the team's highest field goal percentage in a conference semifinal game since Game 5 in 2010 at Cleveland. Boston is unbeaten in the postseason and is attempting to start a postseason with six straight wins for the first time since 1985-86. The Celtics are allowing 91.4 PPG in their first five playoff games. Getting back to Milwaukee, the Bucks' 34.8 shooting percentage was their worst in a postseason game since Game 6 of 2015's first round contest against the Chicago Bulls. Do NOT expect a repeat performance. Milwaukee averaged 118.1 PPG (1st) in the regular season, while making 47.6% from the floor (3rd). The Bucks have averaged 119.2 PPG at home in going 35-9 SU (includes the postseason) and what's more, Milwaukee held its opponents to 43.3% shooting during the regular season, best in the league. The "real" Bucks show up tonight, as does the team's would-be league MVP. Sunday's loss was the third-worst loss by a No. 1 seed in a series opener under the league's current format. The Bucks have NO intention of joining the 2018 Toronto Raptors as the only top seed to fall behind 2-0 in this round under the current 16-team format that began in 1984. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:30 ET. The third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers will be well-rested when they visit the second-seeded Denver Nuggets for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. The Blazers eliminated the OKC Thunder in five games last Tuesday, while the Nuggets needed all seven games to get past San Antonio. Denver edged the Spurs 90-86 this past Saturday night at Pepsi Center. Portland PG Damian Lillard exploded for 50 points in the team's Game 5 clincher against the Thunder, with the last three coming on a step-back three-pointer at the buzzer from 37 feet away. Lillard (33.0-4.4-6.0) and backcourt partner CJ McCollum (24.4-5.4-4.0) carried the scoring load in the first round but the team was able to overcome the loss of starting center Jusuf Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4 during the regular season) thanks to the play of Enes Kanter (13.2 & 10.2). Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its first round win came mostly on the back of the team's All Star center, Nikola Jokic. He led the Nuggets in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) in the regular season and recorded a triple-double with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 7. Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record he averaged 23.1-12.1-9.1 assists vs the Blazers with six double-doubles (included were triple-doubles in Games 1 & 7). Point guard Jamal Murray, the team's second best player during the regular season (18.2-4.2-4.8), was inconsistent in the first round but came through with a team-high 23 points in the clincher. The Blazers are better rested but the Nuggets come in with plenty of confidence. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning THREE of four at home in the first round and the Nuggets are 29-5 in their last 34 home games. The Nuggets fared well against the Trail Blazers in the regular season, winning the first three meetings (extending their winning streak to SIX in a row over Portland), before the Blazers ended that six-game skid with a 115-108 home win on April 7.However, in that contest, Denver rested both Jamal Murray AND Nikola Jokic. Safe to say Jokic won't be rested here and I believe a fully-healthy Kanter would have a difficult time dealing with Jokic. However, it's hard to see Kanter being 100 percent. He reportedly played through a separated shoulder in the Game 5 win last Tuesday and has received treatment all week while practicing on a limited basis. I think the Blazers are doing a very good job taking care of it. But, I mean obviously, I'm not going to lie, it hurts pretty bad," Kanter told reporters Friday. "I mean I'm having a hard time changing my shirt or eating food. So it's a process. We're just taking it day by day, see how it feels."That does NOT seem like promising news for Portland fans (bettors). Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors barely escaped the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals last season. PG Chris Paul went down in Game 5 of that series with a hamstring injury and the Warriors would go on to take the series, winning Game 6 at home in a rout and then eking out a Game 7 win in Houston, as the Rockets 'shot themselves in the foot' by missing 27 three-pointers in a row during the decisive Game 7. The teams meet in a rematch a round earlier this year and the while the top-seeded Warriors own the homecourt advantage this time around, the fourth-seeded Rockets did win both regular season meetings in Oakland during the regular season. The Rockets went up 3-0 in their series with the Jazz and after a Game 4 'stumble,' closed out Utah back at Houston in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Warriors were shocked in Game 2 at home by the Clippers and then again at home in Game 5, after they entered that contest off back-to-back wins in LA. Golden St took care of the Clippers easily in Game 6, as K.D. had a career playoff-high 50 points and the team's defense (thanks in large part to Andre Iguodala) harassed LA's Lou Williams into 3-for-21 shooting in the series finale (note: Williams had 36 and 33 points in Gam2 and Game 5 wins at Oakland). Maybe it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that the Rockets had an easier time in the first round than the Warriors, as over the regular season's final eight weeks the Rockets went 20-4, while the Warriors were a modest 15-9. However, while James Harden struggled to 37.4 percent from the floor in the first round, Kevin Durant averaged 35 points on 56.7 percent shooting vs the Clippers. The rivals will be meeting in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five seasons, with Golden State having prevailed in the previous three. The Rockets lost 10 of 11 in the regular season and eight of 10 in the playoffs to the Warriors to begin the Steve Kerr coaching era but have won each of the last two season series. However, let's NOT forget Houston's loss to Golden St in last year's Western Finals (see above). Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both limped off the court after rolling ankles in Friday's Game 6 but I sure wouldn't count them out, here. Game 1 is HUGE and I'm making a 'big play" on the three-time NBA champs (over a four-year span). Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 120-103 win at home. LaMarcus Aldrige had pretty much been a non-factor in the first five games of the series but scored 26 points and added 10 rebounds in Game 6. DeRozan, the team's leading scorer in the postseason so far at 22.5 PPG, chipped in 25-7-7, plus Rudy Gay had 19 points. San Antonio opened the fourth quarter on a 22-4 run, blowing the game open and finished the contest shooting 57.1 percent from the floor. The Nuggets dominated the paint in Game 6 (outscored the Spurs 72-36) but shot a woeful 6 of 24 (25%) on threes. Jokic posted a career-playoff high of 43 points and just missed a triple-double with 12 rebounds and nine asists. The series concludes with Saturday's Game 7 in Denver. San Antonio is looking to avoid its second straight first-round exit, after staving off elimination by shooting 57.1 percent from the floor and committing just eight turnovers. Can the Spurs really do that again here in Denver?The Spurs did win Game 1 of this series in Denver but in Game 2 and 5 losses at Pepsi center, the Spurs averaged just 97.5 PPG on 43.2% shooting, including 28.6% on threes. Denver's All-Star center Nikola Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record and he enters Game 7 averaging 23.5-11.7-9.0 with five double-doubles in the series. Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its bench totaled only 13 points on 5-of-24 shooting in Game 6. Doesn't that almost HAVE to change here in Game 7? Here's the rub. The Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. Throw in San Antonio's road losses (and non-covers) in Games 2 and 5 and the Spurs are 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS (or 1-7-1 ATS) in tonight's situation since Jan 1. As for Denver, the Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in this series and the Nuggets are 28-5 in their last 33 home games. Home teams win Game 7s more than 80% of the time and I'm laying the points. This is NOT "your father's" Spurs! Good luck...Larry |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs entered the 2019 postseason as the West's No. 7 seed but they've been playoff regulars, as 2019 marked the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed with a record in the regular season. The Spurs shocked the Nuggets in Game 1, winning at Pepsi Center. However, the Nuggets have won Games 2, 4 & 5 of the series and tonight in San Antonio are in position to win a playoff series for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, the Spurs are looking to avoid their second consecutive first-round exit and to avoid that scenario, will have to put up a better effort than they did in Game 5. The Nuggets dominated Game 5, leading by 11 at the half and by as many as 30 points in the final quarter to seize their first lead of the series. I've noted all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Jamal Murray paced Denver with 23 points, one of SEVEN Nuggets in double figures. All-Star center Nikola Jokic has four double-doubles (including one triple double) during a strong playoff debut. He's averaging 19.6-11.6-9.0 in the series. Second-year PG Derrick White starred in the first three games of this series, averaging 23.0 PPG, as the Spurs went up 2-1. However, he's struggled in two straight losses, averaging just 10.0 PPG on 8-of-19 shooting (42.1%). LaMarcus Aldridge paced the Spurs in Game 5 with 17 points and 10 rebounds but overall, has been a non-factor in the series, after leading San Antonio in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the regular season. Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan added 17 points but made just 6 of 15 shots. He's averaged just 18 points in the back-to-back setbacks, dropping his team-best series average to 22.0. Here's the rub. "A close-out game is the hardest game that many of our young players will ever play in, especially against a team like San Antonio," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters."We want to win two straight," Spurs guard Bryn Forbes said,. "Our goal is to play the best two games we can put together and try to win these next two." I just don't see the veteran Spurs "going out' in this Game 6 at home. After all, when the Nuggets 'rocked' the Spurs in Game 4, that victory snapped a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio which stretched back to March 4, 2012. That Game 4 win also was just Denver's SECOND win on the road (in 13 tries!) vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. This series is headed back to Denver for a Game 7.
Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OKC Thunder at 10:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of reaching the Western Conference semifinals after taking a 3-1 series lead over the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Portland is best-known as an offensive team but the team's defense has been equally important in building a 3-1 lead in this first-round playoff series with OKC. The Blazers have held the Thunder under 100 points in each of their three wins. That said, let's NOT ignore Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard (28.8) and McCollum (26.3), who have helped the team take a 3-1 lead. Lillard and McCollum combined for 51 points and 11 assists in Game 4, which was 34 points more than the Thunder's starting backcourt accounted for. Then there is center Enes Kanter, who has stepped in for the injured Nurkic to average 13.3 & 9.5, outplaying OKC's Steven Adams (Adams was held to six points on Sunday, his first single-digit effort of the series). Can (will?) Portland close it out there in Game 5? Paul George is averaging 26.8 points and 8.5 rebounds in the series but is shooting only 37 percent from the floor, including 30.8 from three-point range. Guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 21.3--8.3-9.8 but is shooting 36.3 percent from the floor, including 30.4 from the three-point line. OKC needs more form its complementary players as noted by backup point guard Dennis Schroder. "We've got to move the ball," he told reporters. "They're doing a great job playing (All-Stars Russell Westbrook and Paul George), but I think the other guys who were on the floor got to be aggressive, got to get the ball, make a play for somebody else or finish." That makes sense but if OKC is to win, Westbrook and George will have to come up big. Game 1 came down to the wire but then Portland routed OKC in Game 2, Westbrook was 5 of 20 in Game 2 but rebounded with 33 points and 11 assists in Game 2, a 120-108 OKC win. Westbrook was 5-of-21 from the floor in Game 4, including 0-of-10 in the second half, as the Blazers again routed OKC (George struggled with an 8-of-21 effort). No series pick from me but I expect OKC's "Big 2" will carry the day, here (watch out for Adams, as well). Good luck...Larry |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. James Harden incredibly missed his first 15 field-goal attempts and finished 3-of-20 from the floor but came through with a pair of thee-pointers in the fourth quarter and had no trouble getting to the free-throw line (14 of 16) while finishing with 22 points in Houston's 104-101 victory in Game 3. Harden scored 14 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter and added 10 assists and six steals in the victory. PG Chris Paul scored 18 points, Clint Capela recorded a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds and P.J. Tucker scored the last of his 12 points at the free-throw line to seal the win on Saturday. Utah saw guard Donovan Mitchell score a series-high 34 points in Game 3 but he missed a wide-open look at a three-pointer that would have tied the game with 8.7 seconds left. Overall, Mitchell was just 9 of 27 from the floor and he missed FIVE of his 17 free-throw attempts. Head coach Quin Snyder gave Jae Crowder the Game 3 start but he finished with just five points in 24 minutes. SF Joe Ingles is only 4-of-17 from three-point range in the series. One could look at this series this way. The Utah Jazz did about as well as any team can possibly do defensively against James Harden in Game 3, yet still couldn't come away with a victory. "We didn't capitalize as much as we needed to, especially during a stretch there in the third quarter where I thought we had a chance to build a little bit of a lead," Snyder told reporters after the game. "We got some looks that we had to take, and they didn't fall." The Jazz were understandably deflated after the game but struggling Donovan Mitchell promises he and his teammates will put forth an extreme effort in Game 4. "I don't think anybody is going to just lay over Monday," Mitchell said during a press conference. "I don't think that is going to be the case. I don't think that is what our organization is based on. ... It is an uphill battle, but we are not going to lay over and give them a game." Houston is in prime position to close out the first-round series with Utah but the Rockets haven't swept a playoff series since taking three straight from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the 1997 postseason (that's more than 20 years ago!). The Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Here in Game 4, the Jazz are small home dogs, unlike in Game 3 in which they were a small favorite. Expect Utah to send this series back to Houston. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5.5 | Top | 107-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors Lost Game 1 of this series, 104-101 at home. That could hardly been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory. He was way less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness) but he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Stepping into the void was third-year forward Pascal Siakam, who scored 30 points (a career playoff high) on 13-of-20 shooting while also collecting 11 rebounds in 42 minutes, as the Raptors eked out a 98-93 win to take a 2-1 series lead. Orlando won 13 of its final 14 regular-season home games but shot just 36.3 percent from the floor and committed 16 turnovers in Game 3. Swingman Terrence Ross scored a team-high 24 points off the bench, while center Nikola Vucevic scored 22 on 7-of-13 shooting. The Magic may have lost but Vucevic's return to scoring form in Game 3 was great news. He had averaged 20.8 points (51.8% shooting) and 12.0 rebounds during the season, but had averaged 8.5 points and 7.0 in the first two games of the series. His 22 points and 14 rebounds on Friday need to be replicated in Game 4. Staritng guards Augustin (Game 1 hero) and Fournier also need to play MUCH better, as in the two losses, the duo has combined to shoot 9 of 37 (24.3%). Orlando may be the No. 7 seed but the Magic went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span. As noted above, the Magic won 13 of their last 14 home games. The Magic hardly played well in Game 3 but still lost by just five points. Expect a MUCH better effort here and remember, the Raptors (in their SIXTH straight postseason), are a "money-burning" 7-18 (28.0%) ATS on the road in the playoffs. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. Houston at the buzzer, 112-11. Then, both Denver and Portland won the next night, dropping the Rockets to the No. 4 seed. However, Houston has shown no signs of a let down, routing the Jazz 120-90 in Game 1 and 118-98 in Game 2. "The Rockets are playing at an unbelievably high level," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "They're going to make plays. The adjustment to that is to just keep competing. That's the mindset that we have to have." Utah is struggling to find a rhythm on offense and in particular, the Jazz have made just 15-of-65 (23.1%) from three-point range in the first two games. James Harden is averaging 30.5-8.5-10.5 in the first two games plus backcourt mates Gordon (16.5) and Paul (15.5) are supporting him nicely. Center Clint Capela is averaging a double-double (11.5 & 11.0) and he's been supported by fellow frontcourt players Tucker (13.5), House (9.5) and Faried (9.0 & 6.0). On the Utah side, center Gobert (16.5 & 12.) and PG Rubio (16.0) have out-performed the Jazz' best player, Donovan Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.2 in the regular season). Mitchell has averaged just 15.0 PPG, while shooting percent, including 4 of 15 on threes. Jae Crowder was a valuable role player in the regular season (11.9 & 4.8) but he's scored just 14 points in two games, shooting 16.7% from the floor, including 2 of 13 on threes. After watching the first two games, Houston looks unbeatable. However, is it EVER that simple? Utah's Snyder put it simply. "Our group has always been a group that's responded, and that's what we have to do. We played poorly, and we have to be better. That will be the focus." I'll add that the Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -3 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers 8:35 ET. Kyrie Irving is making the most of his first playoff series with the Boston Celtics. He scored 20 points and helped lead a dominant defensive effort in a series-opening 84-74 win and then finished with 37 points, six rebounds and seven assists in Wednesday's come-from-behind 99-91 victory in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference best-of-seven matchup. Boston trailed by 12 points with 11 minutes remaining in Game 2, before putting together a 16-0 run during a fourth quarter in which the Celtics would outscore the Pacers 31-12 for a 99-91 win. In Game 1, the Pacers led 45-38 at the half but then got outscored 26-8 in the quarter. "It's always been one quarter that kills us in the second half," Pacers forward Thaddeus Young told reporters of his team, after Indiana fell behind 2-0 in the series. "We're getting good looks and shots are not falling. ... We gotta put together a 48-minute game and we haven't been able to that."That pretty much sums it up. Jayson Tatum scored 26 points in Wednesday's win and was the catalyst in a game-ending 10-0 surge by producing six points and one assist. Tatum is averaging 20.5 points on 54.8 percent shooting in the series but Boston could use more balanced scoring. Kyrie is averaging 28.5-5.5-7.0 but Boston needs more from the rest of its players. Indiana knows all to well about players underachieving in the series, so far. Big men Sabonis and Turner, who averaged 14.1 & 9.3 and 13.3 & 7.2 during the regular season, respectively, have been playoff "no-shows." Sabonis is averaging a woeful 4.0 PPG (7.0 RPG), while Turner has hardly been much better (6.5 & 6.5). Shooting guard Wesley Matthews (10.9 PPG in the regular season) was held to six points in Game, his second straight single-digit effort. Boston has won five straight meetings overall with Indiana, the last four of which have come in a 20-day span. The Pacers have shot 39 percent in the series, including 31 percent on three-pointers and have totaled just 165 points in the first two games. Considering that Indiana has lost its last 10 games when the team has failed to reach triple digits (note: The Celtics have won five in a row when holding opponents under 100), the Pacers have to find a way to "score the ball." Consider this. Remember that the Celtics went up on Milwaukee with two series-opening wins at home in the first round last year, only to lose two straight on the road to let the Bucks right back in that series. Boston did go on to win that in seven games but the Celtics finished a pathetic 1-7 on the road in the 2018 postseason. Pacers get back in it here. Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center but the SA Spurs, who had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, would win Game 1 last Saturday by the score of 101-96. In Tuesday's Game 2, the Nuggets found themselves down 19 points (78-59) late in the third quarter, headed for an 0-2 hole in the series. However, PG Jamal Murray, who made critical mistakes down the stretch in Game 1 and was dreadful for the first three quarters of Game 2, erupted to score 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback victory. Murray missed all eight of his field-goal attempts over the first three quarters but coach Michael Malone stuck with him and he was a blistering 8-of-9 shooting as Denver outscored the Spurs 39-23 over the final 12 minutes (55-27, after that 78-59 deficit). "We don't quit," reserve guard Malik Beasley told reporters. "Playoff experience matters, but as long as you play hard and play together, that's what matters on the court." Guard Gary Harris scored 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 2 and is averaging 21.5 points in the series. Center Jokic, who led Denver is scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season, added 21-13-8. Veteran PF Millsap had 20 points, one of four 20-point scorers for Denver in Game 2. I've noted often that Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more are averaging between 5.8 and 8.7 PPG (does not include "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games and hasn't played in the series). As for the Spurs, it was a big missed opportunity. "We got Game 1. We fought, tried to get Game 2, but we got homecourt shifting our way," Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan told reporters. "Now, it's on us to go home and do what we need to do, understand if we take care of home, like we've been doing all year, we can come back here with an opportunity. We feel great where we're at. We understood it wasn't going to be a cake walk." Aldridge (21.3 & 9.2) and DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) were the Spurs' "one-two punch" during the regular season and although the Spurs can't quite meet the overall depth and strength of Denver's bench, the Spurs still own quite a impressive group of role players. In Game 1, White had 16 points (he's averaging 16.5 in the series), Forbes (15 points) and Gay (14 points). Then in Game 2, DeRozan poured in 31 points,Aldridge added 24 and PG D White 17 but no other player scored in double digits. Let's not forget that the Spurs led Tuesday's game from the middle of the first quarter to the middle of the fourth (often by double digits). The Spurs now return home and have to be more than just a little angry that they are not up 2-0. What better head coach could a team ask for in this situation than Pop. The Nuggets have to feel as if they are playing with 'house money' after stealing Game 2 bu the task ahead is a formidable one. Denver has lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 4, 2012. Even of more importance is the following. The Nuggets finished the regular season going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. Lay the more than reasonable points with the Spurs. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. Denver surprised this season by ending a five-season playoff drought. In fact, the Nuggets battled the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed, before finishing 54-28 to earn the No. 2 seed. As for the Spurs, they were inside the playoff 'cut line' almost the entire season (although not by much) and finished 48-34 (No. 7 seed) to make the team's 22nd straight postseason. The veteran Spurs led for most of Game 1 but the Nuggets were down just five with 2:24 left and had a chance to take the lead but Jamal Murray misfired on an 18-footer with 9.4 seconds left. The Nuggets also had an opportunity to force overtime but Spurs rookie PG Derrick White stole the ball from Murray with 2.1 seconds remaining and hit two free throws with 1.3 seconds left to seal the 101-96 victory. All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season and his 'partner in crime' was shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2). DeRozan had 18 points and 12 rebounds but made just 6 of 17 shots. He was one of five San Antonio players to score in double digits. Aldridge contributed 15 & 8 but was just 6-of-19 from the floor. Derrick White (16 points), Bryn Forbes (15 points) and Rudy Gay (14 points) picked up the slack and shot a combined 19 of 28 (67.9%). The Spurs held Denver to 42 percent shooting and Denver didn't score a point in transition. San Antonio held Denver center Nikola Jokic (20.0-10.8-7.2) to 10 points by double-teaming the All-Star center when he was in the low post. However, he added 14 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 to become the fourth player in NBA history to record a triple-double in his first career playoff game. Jamal Murray (18.2-4.2-4.8) had 17 points but was just 8-of-24 from the floor (33.3%), including missing that dreadful wide-open shot late, that might have been the difference between winning and losing. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Meanwhile, the Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. It's hard to see White, Forbes and Gay combing for 45 points on 67.9% shooting, again. Also, will the Spurs go 7-of-15 from three-point range like in Game 1, with Denver going 6-of-28 (21.4%)? Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team and with better shooting performances from Jokic and Murray, should win rather easily. Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 8:00 ET. The Brooklyn Nets finished 42-40 to earn the East's No. 6 seed. It's the team's first playoff appearance since 2015, with the team entering this season off years of 21, 20 and 28 wins. Brooklyn guards D'Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie combined for 67 points on Saturday, leading the Nets to a 111-102 victory in Philadelphia over the 76ers to seize homecourt advantage away from the No. 3 seed. The 76ers saw Jimmy Butler score 36 points and Joel Embiid add 22 and 15 rebounds in his return from a knee issue, but they were a woeful 3-of-25 (12.0%) from three-point range. LeVert paced a 59-point attack for the Brooklyn's bench combined for 59 points in Game 1, getting 23 very productive minutes (23 points) from LeVert, roughly two months into his return from a dislocated foot. D'Angelo Russell started slowly by missing 12 of his first 15 shots but led the Nets with 26 points. The key to Game 1 for Brooklyn was its reserves outscoring Philly's by a 59-26 margin by adding 23 points. Four Brooklyn reserves played at least 20 minutes. Butler was terrific but while and Embiid had 22 & 15, it was 'quiet' 22 as he missed 10 of 15 shots. He also seemed to shay away from the physical play of Brooklyn's big men. Philadelphia saw its other three starters, Tobias Harris (18.2 & 7.9), JJ Redick (18.1) and Ben Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) combined for only 18 points on 8 of 23 shooting (34.8%). Philly heard plenty of boos in Game 1 (the 76ers trailed by as many as 16 points) and need to start strong in Game 2. The Nets are back in the postseason for the first time since 2015 and a win would mark the first time the team has held a 2-0 lead in a series since sweeping the New York Knicks in the opening round of the 2004 postseason. Philly was 31-10 at home during the regular season by averaging 117.9 PPG. I just don't see Brooklyn's reserves can possibly match their Game 1 performance plus expect Philly's starters to rebound. Philly shot 35.9% (8th) from three-point range on the season, so NO WAY we'll see another 3-of-25 effort. Also, Philly missed 13 FTs in Game 1. 76ers bounce back in a big way in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 3:30 ET. The Blazers opened March 1-3 but won 14 of their last 17 games to clinch the No. 3 in the West at 53-29 (edged the Rockets in a tie-breaker). The Thunder seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed (and a first-round series with the Warriors) but OKC ended the season on a five-game winning streak to finish 49-33, one game better than the Spurs (No. 7) and Clippers (No. 8). The series will feature star PGs Damian Lillard (25.8-4.6-8.9) and Russell Westbrook (22.9-11.1-10.7). Lillard averaged 34.8 points and 7.8 assists while Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the teams' four regular season games. However, OKC took all FOUR of the regular season meetings. Paul George (28.0-8.2-4.1), not Westbrook, led the team in scoring this season. However, he is struggling with right shoulder soreness. He insists that he will play in the opener. George was superb against Portland in the regular season with averages of 38 points and 10.5 rebounds and said the postseason is no time to sit with an injury. "It's playoff time, so it's more than this, it's about being out there with my guys," George told reporters. "As much as I can get it a hundred (percent) as possible, or close to it, you can expect me out there Sunday." Portland has a key player with an injury question as well. Lillard's backcourt partner CJ McCollum (21.0) missed 10 games late in the season with a knee injury and didn't fare well upon his return, averaging 10.0 PPG in two games before being rested in the season finale. He made just 8-of-26 shots (30.1%), including 2-of-11 form three-point range. "I feel good, I feel like I'm ready to play, looking forward to the playoffs," McCollum told reporters. "I'm glad I was able to get back and get a couple of games in, get a few game minutes in before the playoffs start. ... My wind is fine, no minutes restrictions." The season-ending ending injury to Portland center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) was expected to be a 'killer,' but Enes Kanter has been a 'savior,' averaging 13.1 & 8.6 in his 23 games for the Blazers (team went 18-5 in those game). Portland will rely on Kanter to combat OKC center Steven Adams (13.8 & 9.5), his former Thunder teammate. A closer look at OKC's closing five-game winning streak revels wins over the Lakers, Pistons and T-wolves (no big deal there), the team's miracle comeback from 14 down vs Houston and a season-ending win at Milwaukee, when the Bucks rested all their starters. Just prior to that stretch, OKC had gone 7-13 SU and a money-burning 5-15 ATS in its previous 20 games. As noted above, Portland closed its season on a 14-3 SU run, including eight straight home wins. Average winning margin in Portland's last 14 victories was 11.0 PPG. Forget the regular season, Portland was 32-9 SU at home, averaging 118.2 PPG with an average winning margin of just shy of nine points per. The Blazers win this one with "room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Playoff Opener is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET. The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs are playoff regulars, as 2019 marks the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The second-seeded Nuggets will be ending a five-year playoff drought when they host the Spurs in Saturday's opener of the Western Conference first-round series. The seventh-seeded Spurs enter this series having won their last three games and six of their past nine (big deal?). "We ended off strong," guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) told reporters. "Our confidence is high. ... I think we've got our mindset where it's supposed to be heading into the playoffs." All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season, plus averaged 22.3 points and shot 55.7 percent from the floor in four games against Denver this season (home team won all four). San Antonio has two guards who finished among the top five in three-pointers by a reserve in Patty Mills (third with 155) and Marco Belinelli (fifth with 145) but San Antonio's overall depth is NOT what it used to be. In contrast, Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. All-Star center Nikola Jokic will be the focal point after posting the second-most double-doubles (56) and triple-doubles (12) in franchise history,. He led the team in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season. PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.2-4.8) and behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus five more, averaging between 5.7 and 8.7 PPG (including "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games). Sure, the Spurs are the more experienced team and Pop is Pop but, this is NOT your father's Spurs. "There's an excitement (about the playoffs)," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "This is a new challenge for our guys. We're going to embrace it, we're looking forward to it. We'll see what we can do." Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. One last thing. The Spurs have gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 219. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-19 | Wolves v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 95-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Finale is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET. Here's what I wrote yesterday in taking the Jazz over the Nuggets as my NBA Game of the Week. "I don't understand Denver's Malone sitting Jokic, Murray and Millsap, so won't try to. Who will he play here? Here's what I know. With Sunday's loss at Portland, the Nuggets are 1-9 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1." The Jazz won 118-108, as the Nuggets fell to 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. It appeared that Denver had squandered an opportunity to nail down the No. 2 seed by losing its last two games but the Nuggets got some improbable help from Oklahoma City. The Thunder trailed the Rockets at home by 14 points with 9:08 remaining but stunned Houston 112-111, with Paul George delivering the final blow, nailing the game-winning three-pointer with 1.8 seconds left. The Rockets have finished the regular season 53-29, meaning the 53-28 Nuggets can claim the No. 2 seed by beating the 36-45 Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at Pepsi Center. "We haven't rested anybody in four years," head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "We had a crazy schedule, we had six games in nine nights, it was unbelievably hard, and all those guys were nursing injuries. We're playing everybody tonight. For people in Houston and people in Denver to be thinking that we are resting people because we intentionally lost so we could avoid a matchup is very wrong, very erroneous reporting." The Nuggets didn't sit anybody on Tuesday but Malone used a lot of his bench against the Jazz. They were within four points midway through the fourth period but the Jazz went on a 16-2 run to put it away. As for Jokic, who lead the team in scoring (19.9), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3), he's played only 16 minutes over the last two games in the hope he will be fresh for the Denver Nuggets' first playoff appearance in six years. The strategy might have paid off in a big way, thanks to some help from the Oklahoma City Thunder (see above). I can't imagine the Nuggets going "all-out" here with the No. 2 seed just a win away. Ironically, this marks the second straight season that these two teams wrap up the regular season against each other. Last year's game was a play-in game for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, after Denver went on a tear to tie Minnesota in the standings. However, the Timberwolves prevailed in overtime in that game, leaving the Nuggets at home for the postseason. The Timberwolves have been decent at home this season (25-16 at Target Center) but Minnesota comes into Denver having gone just 11-29 away from home. The Nuggets have "something to play for" and are 33-7 at home this season, including 25-4 in their last 29. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. The 53-27 Denver Nuggets lost out on their battle with the Golden St Warriors for the West's top-seed but with two games to go in the regular season, now find themselves engaged in a tight battle for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with the 53-28 Houston Rockets. The Nuggets dropped a 115-108 decision to the host Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday in game in which they rested Jokic, Murray and Millsap. "They're tired. It's been a long season," head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "Neither of those guys -- Jamal, Paul or Nikola has sat out one game this year due to rest or load management." Denver seems more focused on entering the postseason fresh, rather than securing the No. 2 see. They may just get their 'wish.' Utah was making a run at No. 4 seed Portland for homecourt advantage in the probable first-round series between the teams but fell two games back with two to play after suffering a dreadful 113-109 loss to the host Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Utah head coach Quin Snyder was frustrated after Sunday's loss, as a depleted Lakers' squad outplayed and outworked his team. "Regardless of where you're seeded, you have to play well and play a certain way to win," Snyder told reporters afterward. "We've won some games, so sometimes that masks some things we weren't doing well. Everyone has been talking about the winning streak, but that doesn't mean anything."The 49-31 Jazz are unlikely to catch Portland but expect an outstanding effort in this, the team's home finale of the regular season. I don't understand Malone sitting Jokic, Murray and Millsap, so won't try to. Who will he play here? Here's what I know. With Sunday's loss at Portland, the Nuggets are 1-9 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. The Jazz are off an embarrassing loss at the Lakers on Sunday, a contest in which they had taken a 12-1 SU run into. What's more, Utah has won each of the Nuggets' last eight visits to Salt Lake City. Gotta love Utah at this price! Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-19 | Magic v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. Orlando reached a low point on Jan 29, when a loss to OKC dropped the Magic 11 games under .500. However, the Magic have since gone 20-9 and Friday's 149-113 t home win over the Hawks gave them EIGHT wins in their last 10 and moved them into sixth place in the East (the Nets won last night, moving into a ie with Magic at 40-40 apiece!). The Magic are looking like the cream of the crop in a crowded race for the final three playoff spots in the Eastern Conference and are on the cusp of snapping a six-year postseason drought, needing just one win to clinch a playoff berth. However, Sunday's game in Boston will be a tough one. The 48-32 Celtics need just one win (or an Indiana loss) to nail down the East's No. 4 seed, after crushing the Pacers 117-97 at Indiana on Friday. Orlando is healthy coming down the stretch and the team's 42-18 first-quarter lead over the Hawks allowed the Magic to give most of their regulars an easy night, as the team secured its NINTH straight home win (Orlando's longest in-season streak in 10 years.). However, the Magic are just 15-24 SU on the road and face a Boston team which is 28-12 SU at home and is playing its final home game of the regular season. SIX players scored in double figures in Friday's rout of Indiana, including Gordon Hayward. He made all nine of his shots en route to 21 points and has averaged 1 6.4 points on 58.8 percent shooting over his last seven games. Boston has SIX players averaging in double digits, plus Smart (8.9) and Rozier (8.8) just miss. The Magic have won the first two meetings vs the Celtics this season (by a total of just five point) but DON'T expect the third time to be the 'charm.' Boston wins and clinches the No. 4 seed "with room to spare." Good luck.,..Larry |
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04-03-19 | Pacers v. Pistons -1.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The 46-32 Indiana Pacers are battling for the No. 4 seed in the first round of the playoffs with the Boston Celtics, who are also 46-32 but own the tiebreaker. The Pacers snapped a three-game slide in beating the Pistons 111-102 at home on Monday. The 39-38 Pistons, who are fighting for one of the final three spots in the East playoff bracket (currently own the No. 6 seed but are just a half-game up on the Nets, one game up on the Heat and 1 1/2 games clear of the Heat, who currently sit outside the playoff 'cut line'). Detroit now gets a chance for some "quick revenge," as the Pacers visit Little Caesars Arena tonight. Indiana did not have a player reach 20 points on Monday but shot 54.5 percent from the floor and placed seven scorers in double figures, including reserve guard Aaron Holiday (5.6), who scored 10 points and handed out five assists in 25 minutes. Holiday was getting extra playing time in the absence of starting PG Darren Collison (11.4 & 6.1 APG), who remains day-to-day with a groin injury. The Pacers lost four straight games after leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8) suffered a ruptured quadriceps tendon in his right knee in late January but they got over the initial shock of losing him by posting a 9-3 record in February. However, they're increasingly feeling his absence, particularly during crunch time. The playoff-bound Pacers finished March 4-10, including a 1-7 mark over the last eight games.The April 1 win was big but the Pacers need to avoid looking ahead to a home date with Boston on Friday. Blake Griffin (24.7-7.7-5.5) missed his second consecutive game on Monday (knee) and his presence was missed in the paint on the defensive end (he's listed as questionable here). Center Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.3) tried to make up for the loss of Griffin and collected 18 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and four steals in the loss. PG Jackson (15.5 & 4.2 APG) had 22 points and Wayne Ellington came up big with 26 points. Ellington has given Detroit an outside shooting threat, as he has averaged 11.8 in 23 games since joining Detroit. I'd LOVE to see Griffin play here but either way, I'll take the Pistons. Detroit has won 11 straight at home (11-0 ATS), it's best run since it captured 16 straight during the 2005-06 season.Meanwhile, Indian limps in on a 10-game road losing streak and hardly can cover without winning SU with this pointspread. Detoit's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Warriors won their third title in four years last season, while the Nuggets missed the Western Conference playoffs by one game. However, as those two teams meet tonight in Oakland, the Nuggets are 51-25 and the Warriors sit 52-24. It's a contest that could decide the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Denver had a chance to go into tonight's contest tied with Golden State but watched its offense fall apart in the second half, as it suffered a 95-90 home loss to the Washington Wizards on Sunday. That same night, the Warriors were showing off just how good they can be in a 137-90 rout of the Charlotte Hornets. Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Center Jokic leads in scoring (20.3), rebounding (10.9) and assists (7.4), while PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.1-4.8). Behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more, averaging between 5.6 and 8.5 PPG. However, Denver's offense has suddenly has disappeared,. as Denver is averaging 94.6 points in its last five games and has scored 90 or fewer in three of those contests (not surprisingly, all losses). "I don’t know," Nuggets power forward Paul Millsap told reporters when asked about the offensive funk. "If we don't figure it out going on this roadie, it's going to be tough to win. It's something we've got to look at, for sure, and try to nip it in the bud." Sunday's Golden St victory came just two nights after a contentious overtime loss at Minnesota that left the team frustrated with the officiating. "Nights like tonight show our full potential," Warriors superstar Stephen Curry told reporters after Sunday's win. "It's obviously starting to get real with the countdown being what it is. It's a good feeling right now, so we have to keep it going." Curry (27.9-5.4-5.3), KD (26.6-6.6-5.8) and Thompson (22.1) lead an offense scoring 117.7 PPG (2nd) on 48.9% (1st), including 38.3% (3rd). Golden St has been a money-burner since last season but this game should have a "playoff atmosphere." The Warriors' remaining schedule is not difficult, with home games against Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers plus road contests against three teams already assured of being lottery-bound, the Lakers, New Orleans and Memphis. A win here would be HUGE. The Nuggets broke through last Friday with a 115-105 win at OKC. However, that victory ended a stretch in which the Nuggets had gone 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. Lay the points with Golden St. Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The 39-37 Detroit Pistons visit the Pacers on Monday, before hosting them back in Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons were able to beat Portland 99-90 on Saturday, despite All-Star forward Blake Griffin sitting out to rest a sore knee. It was Detroit's 11th straight home win (11-0 ATS run!), its best run since it captured 16 straight during the 2005-06 season.The Pistons currently own the 6th-seed in the East, a half-game ahead of the Nets, one game up on the Heat and just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Magic, who are the 9th-seed. The 45-32 Pacers have dropped SEVEN of their last eight games to fall into fifth place in the East, after dropping a 121-116 decision at home to the Orlando Magic. "It's unacceptable," Indiana PG Darren Collison told reporters. "We can't lose a game like that, especially at home. Especially when everything is going our way most of the game. It's a tough loss for us but it was inexcusable on our part." Detroit was held to 11 points in the first quarter and 31 in the first half against teh Blazers but got things together at both ends in the second half on Saturday for the 99-90 win. PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) led the way with 28 points and center Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.3) collected 22 points and 19 rebounds in the absence of Griffin (24.7-7.7-5.5), who is listed as day-to-day. If Grifffin sits, Detroit just may not have enough against Indiana. The Pacers lost four straight games after leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8) suffered a ruptured quadriceps tendon in his right knee in late January but they got over the initial shock of losing him by posting a 9-3 record in February. However, they're increasingly feeling his absence, particularly during crunch time. The playoff-bound Pacers finished March 4-10, including a 1-7 mark over the last eight games. Indiana's players and coaches collectively bemoaned a defensive effort that allowed 65 second-half points on Saturday. Prior to that loss, most of the damage had occurred on the road for the Pacers. Indiana checks in 28-10 SU at home this season and since Feb 1, has gone 10-3 SU at home (lost to the Warriors and the Magic, two times) and off that recent loss to Orlando, should be highly motivated here. Indiana and Boston have the same record but currently, Boston owns the tiebreaker. With a game in Detroit on Wednesday (remember, the Piston s are on an 11-0 SU & ATS run at home), this game qualifies as a "must win." I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-19 | Kings v. Spurs -9 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 7:05 ET. The 44-32 San Antonio Spurs have clinched a playoff berth for the 22nd straight season. A little history first, before getting to the game. The Spurs' playoff streak matches the league's longest run of postseason appearances, set by Syracuse/Philadelphia from 1950 to 1971. The Nationals made the playoffs 14 straight times (1950-63) before moving to Philadelphia after the 1962-63 season and becoming the 76ers. Philadelphia then advanced to the postseason eight straight times (1964-71). However, San Antonio has plenty to play for over the next 11 days (regular season ends April 10), in the tightly-bunched Western Conference field. The Kings' 119-108 loss at Houston on Saturday locked up the playoff spot for the Spurs, who are in seventh place in the West but just 1 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers for sixth and trail fifth-place Utah by two. San Antonio opened its current three-game homestand with a 116-110 victory over Cleveland on Thursday, its 11th win in 14 contests. Sacramento was the last remaining team in the West with a mathematical chance of catching the Spurs or Oklahoma City for a postseason berth but had no answer on Saturday, as James Harden scored 50 points for the Rockets. The 37-39 Kings still have a chance to avoid a 13th straight losing season with a strong finish but don't expect them to add to their win total in this spot. The Spurs are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS over their last 14 overall plus come into this contest having won 12 of their last 13 at home. Speaking of home, the Spurs have won 11 straight at home over the Kings, a streak that dates back to 2012. The number is a little high but LAY IT! Good luck...Larry |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. The 38-37 Detroit Pistons returned home off a 1-4 road trip to post a 115-98 win over the Magic on Thursday. The victory puts Detroit in sixth-place in the East's playoff picture but just 1 1/2 games clear of the playoff 'cut line' over ninth-place Orlando. The Pistons will host the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday, who have won NINE of their last 10 contests, after rolling to a 118-98 triumph in Atlanta on Friday. 47-27 Portland resides in third place in the Western Conference, but just one-half game ahead of Houston. The Blazers have relied on their dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (26.3-4.6-6.8) and McCollum (21.3) all season, along with center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4). However, Nurkic was just lost for the season due to a broken leg, while McCollum remains sidelined with a knee ailment (he's missed the last six, all Portland wins). "Obviously, CJ being out is a blow and Nurkic being out is a blow, but we haven't used it as a crutch or excuse," said Lillard. "We haven't put our heads down and pouted about it. We just kept working and kept going after it." Lillard scored 36 points against the Hawks and has registered FIVE 30-point performances in his last seven games. Portland is sure glad it signed Enes Kanter around the trade deadline, as he's averaging 10.8 & 7.1 in 17 games and those numbers will balloon with more playing time. Much like Portland, Detroit has relied on a "Big Three." The Pistons trio consists of PF Griffin (24.7-7.7-5.5), center Drummond (17.3 & 15.4) and PG Jackson (15.2 & 4.2 APG). However, veteran guard Wayne Ellington has given Detroit an outside shooting threat, as he matched season bests of 25 points and seven 3-pointers in the win over Orlando. Ellington has averaged 11.3 in 21 games since joining Detroit and head coach Dwane Casey is thrilled with the production. "I was jumping up and down when I found out we had a chance to sign Wayne," Casey told reporters of a player who received a buyout from Phoenix after being acquired from Miami in February. No doubt Portland is on a roll (see above), even without McCollum and Nurkic. However, the Blazers played last night while the rested Pistons are seeking an 11th straight home win (10-0 SU & ATS run!). It's Detroit's best run since it captured 16 straight during the 2005-06 season. The Pistons just lost at Portland (Mar 23) but only five points and the change of venue will make ALL the difference. Good luck...Larry |
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03-29-19 | Nuggets v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets missed the playoffs last year (one game shy of the No. 8 seed) but have no such worries this season. Denver is 50-24, just ONE game back of the Warriors for the West's top record. However, Denver missed a chance to move into a tie with Golden St last night when the Nuggets lost badly in Houston to the Rockets, 112-85. Denver looks to complete a four-game sweep of the season series when it visits the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. The Nuggets have won the first three meetings by an average of nine points and prevailed 105-98 back on Nov 24 in their first visit to Oklahoma City this season. The Thunder have been struggling, dropping five of six games before posting a 107-99 home win over Indiana on Wednesday. The 44-31 Thunder currently sit in seventh place in the Western Conference with seven games remaining. The 5-8 spots are tightly bunched (teams separated by just 1 1/2 games) but OKC appears destined to be on the road in the first round of the playoffs, as the Thunder are 3 1/2 games behind the No. 4 seed. Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Center Jokic leads in scoring (20.2), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.5), while PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.2-4.8). Behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more, averaging between 5.7 and 8.7 PPG. However, Denver's offense suddenly has disappeared, as the Rockets have failed to reach 100 points in three straight games for the first time all season. The Nuggets shot just 36.9 percent from the floor, including 4-for-24 from three-point range last night in Houston. The Thunder looked headed for a defeat as the Pacers built a 11-point lead on Wednesday but they scored 24 consecutive points over a stretch of nearly seven minutes to seize control (Pacers missed 14 consecutive shots during that span). Paul George (28.2-8.1-4.1) is expected to play despite left shoulder pain, after scoring 31 points in the win over his former team. Russell Westbrook (22.9-11.0-10.4) collected 17 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds against the Pacers, for his 29th triple-double of the season and the 133rd of his career. It's hard to really trust OKC but I went against Denver last night with Houston and will do so again here with the Thunder. Here's why. This will be the Nuggets' sixth road game in the last seven contests and is part of the toughest stretch of the season, Last night's contest against Houston began a stretch in which seven of Denver's next eight games will be against probable Western Conference playoff games. After last night's 'ugly' defeat, the Nuggets fell to 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. "Case closed," as Archie Bunker used to famously say! Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -5 | Top | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets missed the playoffs last year (one game shy of the No. 8 seed) but have no such worries this season. Denver has won SEVEN of its last eight and at 50-23, is just a half-game back of the Warriors for the West's top record (who'da thunk it!). The Nuggets visit Houston tonight, to take on the Rockets. Houston won an NBA-best 67 games last season but currently sit 47-28 (four back of Denver), as the Rockets battle the 47-27 Blazers for the No. 3 seed (note: the Jazz and Clippers are just two games back of Houston for the 4th-seed). Tuesday's 95-92 home win over the Detroit Pistons gave the Nuggets their first 50-win season since going 57-25 in 2012-13, while Houston suffered a 108-94 road loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Center Jokic leads in scoring (20.3), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.5), while PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.1-4.2-4.9). Behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more, averaging between 5.9 and 8.9 PPG. Reigning MVP James Harden (36.2-6.5-7.5) has made a strong case to win it again this season, while Gordon (16.2) and PG Paul (15.6 & 8.2 APG) give Houston a dynamic three-guard attack. Swingmen House (9.9) and Green (9.5) can be very dangerous on any given night, although Green is expected to miss his third straight game (shoulder). Center Clint Capela flys under the radar but he's averaging career highs in points (16.5) and rebounds (12.5). Here's the bottom line. The Nuggets posted a 136-122 home win over the Rockets back on Feb 1 but that win halted a NINE-game losing skid against the Rockets. This contest against Houston begins a stretch in which seven of Denver's next eight games are against probable Western Conference playoff games. The problem? The Nuggets are 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1! Let's NOT ignore Houston's dominance over Denver in recent years (see above) or that since Capela returned from a thumb injury after the All Star break, the Rockets have been tough to beat. The Rockets lost their first game with him back in the lineup. but they won the next game in Oakland (118-112 over the Warriors as 12-point underdogs), jump-starting a 14-3 SU run. Lay the VERY fair price. Good luck...Larry |
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03-26-19 | Pistons v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 92-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on teh Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets were 46-36 last season (one game out of the West's final playoff spot), so few (if any) expected them to be challenging the Golden St Warriors (three titles in the last four seasons) for the West's best record in the 2018-19 season, However, that's the situation as the NBA enters its final 16 days. The 49-23 Nuggets are fighting for the top seed in the Western Conference as the Warriors are just a half-game better as of Tuesday morning, at 50-23. The Piston also missed the last season (like the Nuggets, they were 9th) but they were a sub-500 team at 39-43). However, at 37-36 on the season to-date, Detroit is cling to the East's 6th-seed, in a virtual tie with the 38-37 Nets and one game up on the 8th-seeded Heat. Detroit also has to be concerned with Orlando (five straight wins) and Charlotte (three straight wins), who are also clearly withing striking distance. The stage is set for the Piston vs the Nuggets tonight in Denver. Detroit concludes a five-game road trip tonight at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are 1-3 so far, with their lone win coming in Phoenix, over the pathetic 17-58 Suns. PF Griffin (24.7-7.5-5.5) and center Drummond (17.3 & 15.4) join PG Jackson (15.3 & 4.2 APG) as the only consistent contributors. In stark contrast, Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Center Jokic leads in scoring (20.2), rebounding (10.8) and assist (7.6), while PG Murray has been steady as it goes (17.9-4.2-4.8). Behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus five more, averaging between 5.8 and 8.9 PPG (include Thomas, who has played just 10 games). The goods news for Detroit is, that the Pistons will play five of their final eight games at home, following tonight's game. However, that won't help here. Detroit has lost EIGHT of its last nine visits to Denver, which will surely remember getting humbled by 26 points at Little Caesars Arena back on Feb 4. Denver returns home for this one off a four-game road trip and will have to go right back on the road after tonight's game (at Houston on Thursday and at OKC on Friday). Considering that and with the team's embarrassing Feb 4 loss at Detroit still somewhat fresh, expect the Nuggets (30-6 at home, average winning margin of 11 points) to roll. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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03-24-19 | Spurs v. Celtics -2 | Top | 115-96 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs have certainly been streaky this season. The Spurs' annual "Rodeo Road Trip" was a disaster, as they went 1-7 from Feb 4-25. San Antonio then ripped off NINE wins in a row, before losing 110-105 at home vs Miami (Wed) and then 111-105 at Houston on Friday (Harden has 61 points!). The 42-31 Spurs now sit alone in eighth place in the West, although OKC, Utah and the LAC are all just one game better at 43-30. The Sputs visit TD Garden tonight to take on a Boston team in shock, after Saturday's 124-117 loss in Charlotte. The Hornets closed Saturday night's game on a 30-5 run. Charlotte trailed 112-94 with 8 minutes, 22 seconds remaining!!!.The 43-30 Celtics are one game back of the Pacers for the East's No. 4 seed, edge in the first round. The Spurs are led by guard DeRozan (21.5-6.3-6.1) and PF Aldridge (21.0 & 8.9) but six more players check in averaging between 8.0 and 14.1 PPG. Guard Bryn Forbes (11.6) hit all three of his three-point tries en route to a team-high 20 points at Houston but his teammates were just 4-of-21 from beyond the arc (note: Spurs are the NBA's best three-point shooting team at 39.7%). LaMarcus Aldridge scored 32 points to lead San Antonio to a 120-111 victory back on Dec 31 over the Celtics at home but was held to 10 at Houston and has fallen short of his average (21.0) in four of the last five games. Kyrie Irving (24.0-5.1-7.0) scored 31 points and Jaylen Brown (13.2 & 4.3) had 29 in Saturday's loss, which has the team wondering where to go as it heads into the second half of a back-to-back. Boston's depth is impressive, as along with Irving and Brown, they have forwards Tatum (15.9 & 6.2), Morris (14.2 & 6.6) and Hayward (10.8 & 4.3), F/C Horford (13.2-6.7.4-1) plus guards Rozier (9.3) and Smart (8.5). Brad Stevens' team has been a huge underachiever this season but I have to believe Boston will respond here at home, off last night's total collapse. Let's not ignore that San Antonio's nine-game winning streak (prior to its Wednesday loss at home to Miami and Friday's loss at Houston),was comprised of SEVEN home wins. The lone road wins came against losers like Atlanta and Dallas. The Spurs come to Boston 3-8 SU on the road since Feb 1 and would basically need to win to cover here. Back the home team. Good luck...Larry |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs saw their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 110-105 home loss to the Miami Heat on Wednesday. They open a three-game road swing tonight in Houston, against a Rockets team which is also coming off a loss on Wednesday, 126-125 in OT at Memphis. Houston had won 12 of 13 prior to that defeat and at 45-27, resides in third place in the Western Conference, a half-game ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers. Meanwhile, while the 42-30 Spurs are in a four-way tie for the fifth through eighth spots (current tiebreakers have SA with the No. 6 seed).. San Antonio had good offensive balance in the loss against Miami, with five players scoring 15 or more points. That's nothing new. DeRozan (21.5-6.3-6.1) and Aldridge (21.1 & 9.0) have been the team leaders all season but six more players check in averaging between 8.0 and 14.2 PPG. The Spurs make 47.8% of their shots (2nd), including an NBA-high 39.9% on threes. Reigning MVP James Harden (36.1-6.5-7.7) poured in 57 points on Wednesday (his seventh 50-point effort of the season). Harden almost a comeback from a 19-point deficit but his effort left the Rockets one point short."If we play that way, the way that we played in the fourth quarter (and) overtime defensively, then we'll be all right," Harden said after the game. Gordon (16.5) and PG Paul (15.6 & 8.2 APG) give Houston a dynamic three-guard attack plus swingmen House (9.9) and Green (9.5) can be very dangerous on any given night. However, don't overlook center Clint Capela, who is averaging career highs in points (16.8) and rebounds (12.4). Note that when Capela returned from a thumb injury after the All Star break, the Rockets lost their first game with him in the lineup. However, they won the next game in Oakland (118-112 over the Warriors as 12-point underdogs) and were on a 12-1 run before losing Wednesday. Yes, the Spurs had won NINE in a row prior to their Wednesday loss but SEVEN wins came at home. The lone road wins were in Atlanta (Hawks are 25-48) and Dallas (Mavs are 28-44 and losers of 15 of their last 17!). The Spurs are just 13-22 SU on the road, where they allow 115.1 PPG. NONE of that spells good new against a Houston team off a rare loss. Home team gets the "W" and the 'CASH!' Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-19 | Raptors v. Thunder -4 | Top | 123-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NBA 35-Club-Play is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET. The 50-21 Toronto Raptors and the 42-29 Oklahoma City Thunder play the front end of a home-and-home set on Wednesday. The Raptors reached the 50-win threshold for the fourth straight season by routing the New York Knicks 128-92 on Monday, despite All-Star forward Kawhi Leonard being held out to rest. The Raptors have 11 games left and own a four-game lead in the race for the No. 2 seed plus sit three games back of the Bucks for the East's top seed.OKC's three-game slide leaves them with the West's No. 6, just 1 1/2 games behind the No. 4 seed but also just a half-game ahead of the No. 8 seed. Leonard (27.1 & 7.4) is expected to play here but PG Lowry (14.8-4.8-9.0) suffered an injury to his right ankle in the third quarter of the Knicks game and he could sit out Wednesday. Lowry missed the previous two games with a left ankle injury and told reporters after the contest that the now-injured right ankle was "pretty tender." Serge Ibaka (15.1 & 8.1) will be available again tonight, after a fight-caused three-game suspension. However, it should be noted that the late additions of Gasol (9.5 & 6.9) and lin (8.4) have made the Raptors a deeper AND better team. Westbrook (22.9-11.1-10.5) served a one-game suspension for drawing his 16th technical foul of the season and missed Monday's 116-107 home loss to the Miami Heat. Dennis Schroder (15.4) moved into the starting lineup in place of Westbrook and scored 20 points but the bench took a major hit without him. The Miami reserves had a 67-10 edge in points as Oklahoma City's bench was 4-of-22 shooting and missed all 10 of its three-point attempts. Paul George (28.3-8.2-4.2) scored 31 points against the Heat and is averaging 30.3 PPG over the past four contests, The Raptors seem to have settled into the idea that they will be the East's No. 2 seed and their recent form has been less than inspiring, going 10-5 SU but 5-10 ATS in their last 15. Meanwhile OKC needs to focus down the stretch, as the team has legitimate shots at finishing as the West's No. 3 seed or its No. 8 seed! OKC badly needs to end its three-game slide tonight. Westbrook is back and my bet says the Thunder will roll! Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-19 | Pacers v. Clippers -5 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 44-27 Indiana Pacers are in fourth place in the Eastern Conference as they continue a four-game road trip against the LA Clippers at Staples Center on Tuesday. The Pacers enter off a 106-98 loss Monday night at Portland. A Miami Heat loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, or a Pacers victory, would have clinched a playoff berth for Indiana but neither happened. Losers of seven of their last 11, the Pacers visit the 41-30 Clippers, who are closing in on wrapping up a Western Conference playoff berth. The Clipps have won SEVEN of eight and are six games clear of the ninth-place Sacramento Kings with 11 left to play. Indiana center Center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.0) scored a season-best 28 points against Portland to fall three points shy of his career high but PF Thaddeus Young (12.5 & 6.5) was on the other end of the spectrum as he scored a season-low two points on 1-of-8 shooting. With Oladipo (18.8-5.6-5.2) out for the season, SF Bogdanovic 917.8 & 4.1), big man Sabonis (14.2 & 9.1, despite just FIVE starts), PG Collison (11.3 & 6.0 APG) and swingman Evans (9.8) are the main contributors, They have recently been joined by SG Mathews (12.5 PPG in 15 games), a late addition from the Mavs t LA sixth-man man Lou Williams (20.4 & 5.2 APG) buried a three-pointer as time expired to provide the club with a 119-116 win over the visiting Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. Along SF Gallinari (19.4 & 6.1) and 6-8 PF Harrrell (16.4 & 6.7), the trio represents the core of LA's team since the NBA trade deadline when the Clippers made three separate moves to alter a roster that was fighting for playoff eligibility. When the Pacers earned a 116-92 home win Feb 7 over the Clippers, leading scorer Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott, Marcin Gortat, Milos Teodosic and Avery Bradley never made it to Indiana that night. Clippers players who had yet to arrive by then, but have since helped the team to an 11-4 record while solidifying L.A.'s playoff chances include, Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Jamychal Green, Garrett Temple and Ivica Zubac. So LA takes the court 11-4 in its last 15, including wins in SEVEN of its last eight. In stark contrast, the Pacers enter having lost SIX consecutive road games (1-5 ATS). It may come as a surprise to many that the "left for dead" Clippers are just ONE game behind San Antonio (No. 5 seed) and 2 1/2 games back of the No. 4 seed. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-18-19 | Nuggets v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The surprising Denver Nuggets are 46-22, leaving them just one game back of Golden St for the West's best record. Meanwhile, the disappointing Boston Celtics sit 43-27, leaving them one back of the 4th-seed Pacers and two games back of the third-seeded 76ers in the East. The two teams meet for the second time this season, as the NBA season enters its final weeks. The first meeting came way back on Nov 5, with Nuggets earning a 115-107 win at Pepsi Center, as Jamal Murray scored 48 points. Murray jacked up a last-second three-pointer to try to reach 50 in that contest and Boston guard Kyrie Irving wasn't happy, throwing the basketball into the stands after the buzzer and drawing a fine. Now seriously, does anyone think that's a motivating factor? A motivating factor is the two teams' current standings and as noted, both are in important 'battles' for playoff position. The Nuggets are led by center Jokic, who leads Denver in scoring (20.3), rebounding (10.7) and assist (7.6). Denver has fought through countless injuries this season (to many key players) but almost ll are healthy now and behind Jokic, Denver has NINE players averaging between 8.0 and 18.3 PPG (includes Thomas and his 8.6 PPG in nine games). An issue here will be Denver's lack of success on the road vs the league's best teams (more in a second). PG Irving (23.7 & 7.1 APG) doesn't seem content in Boston (understatement?) but his production can't be questioned. He sat out a Mar 6 game at Sacramento but has played all four since, topping 30 points in THREE of them. Boston can almost match Denver's depth and it's hard to ignore the team's excellent 26-10 home mark, with the Celtics averaging 115.1 PPG. Now back to Denver's road woes vs quality opposition. Since winning at Toronto back on Dec 3, the Nuggets have lost at San Antonio (111-103), at Houston (125-113), at Utah (114-108), at Philly (117-110), at San Antonio again (104-103) and at Golden St (112-105). Why NOT expect another Denver loss here at TD Garden? Good luck...Larry |
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03-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -2 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. Both teams played last night, making home floor advantage that much more important. Especially at this time of year. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but in the final month of the season it can be excruciating. Especially when both games are on the road. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans last night, while the Spurs posted a relatively simple 109-83 home win over the Knicks, resting many of their starters down the stretch. The 42-26 Blazers are a half-game up on the Rockets in a battle for the West's No. 3 seed and the Rockets are just a half-game up on the 5th-seeded Thunder. It will be quite a finish. The Spurs have won SEVEN in a row and are now 40-29. San Antonio is safely inside the playoff 'cut line' (6 1/2 games clear) but "don't look now," the Spurs are just THREE games back of the Blazers. The win over the Knicks gives San Antonio a 27-7 home mark (22-12 ATS) and the Spurs will take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest .The home team has won and covered the first three meetings between these teams this season and the Spurs have defended their homecourt well in this series, taking 10 of the last 12 SU (9-3 ATS) over the last four years. At this price, San Antonio offers great value! Good luck...Larry |
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03-15-19 | Lakers v. Pistons -9 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. Go figure the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons had won 12 of 14 before losing 103-75 at Brooklyn and then 108-74 at Miami. Detroit scored just eight third-quarter points and 25 in the second half of Wednesday's loss to the Heat, It's about our mental fortitude and coming out and having a better mindset at the beginning of games, myself included," Pistons power forward Blake Griffin told reporters. "I'm not excluding myself from that at all. If we have any fight about us at all we'll come out and rectify that." Detroit welcomes the Lakers to town tonight, who limp in off a 111-98 loss at the Toronto Raptors last night. LA has lost EIGHT of its last 10 games and the team is now 7 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers for the final Western Conference playoff spot. LBJ (27.4-8.6-8.0) scored 29 points against Toronto but only played 32 minutes, as his playing time was reduced for the fourth straight game with the playoffs being a slim possibility. The Lakers have already lost Ingram (18.3-5.1-3.0) and Ball 9.9-5.3-5.4) for the season and could be without LBJ here, as it's expected he won't play in back-to-back situations. Detroit center Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.2) saw his franchise-record-tying streak of 19 consecutive double-doubles come to an end against Miami, as he had just five points and nine rebounds before fouling out midway through the fourth quarter. It wasn't good news that PG Reggie Jackson (15.2 & 4.3 APGsprained his right ankle in the fourth quarter. If he's out, the roles of backups Ish Smith and Jose Calderon will expand. Rookie Bruce Brown and Luke Kennard could also get some minutes at the point.As always, Blake Griffin (24.9-7.7-5.4) will be counted on heavily. Detroit head coach Dwane Casey is miffed at the collapses as his club sits seventh in Eastern Conference playoff race with not much margin for error. "For two games in a row now, we didn't come out in playoff mode," Casey told reporters. "There's nothing schematically. There's nothing X-and-O wise. It's our approach. We have to understand at this time of year ... the only thing you can do is scrap and play hard."The again, here's the bottom line. The Lakers have ZERO motivation and let's NOT ignore that the Pistons are on a 7-0 SU & ATS run at home since Feb 4, while averaging a WHOPPING 122.4 PPG. The number seems high but LAY IT! Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-19 | Thunder +1 v. Pacers | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the OKC Thunder (7:05 EST). OKC had lost eight in a row ATS from Feb 14 thru Mar 5 but comes in 3-1 SU & ATS. Currently tied with Houston for No. 3 seed in the West with Portland just a half-game back (no margin for error down the stretch / top-four seeds get homecourt in first round). Off a win over Brooklyn last night, clearly Paul George will be looking to keep the momentum rolling here. Note that just one of the Pacers' 11 wins since Victor Oladipo's season-ending injury in late January has come against a team that is currently .500 of better! The Thunder have to be feeling confident here as well, as they’d take both meetings vs. the Pacers last season, including a 100-95 road victory. OKC remains 4.5 games behind the Warriors for the top spot after GS won in Houston last night. But with a chance to gain ground on both teams with another victory tonight, I’m expecting the visitors to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think it’s important to note as well that the Thunder are a solid 6-4 in the second game of back-to-backs this year, averaging 112.2 points and conceding 106.2 in those instances. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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03-12-19 | Lakers -1 v. Bulls | Top | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers (8:05 EST). Fair or unfair, there’s tremendous pressure on LeBron James to bring a winning team to LA at some point. Most hoped or expected that to happen in his first season, but clearly that was an unrealistic goal. And now an injury to Brandon Ingram and also guard Lonzo Ball has been shutdown. There was also a mid-season drama involving the possible signing of Anthony Davis and management offered almost the entire team in return. It’s been a difficult season for The King and the Playoffs are now likely just a “pipe dream” this season. James is missing players for tonight’s game, but he’s not being asked to win a championship tonight, just to beat the 19-49 Bulls. LA’s had two whole nights off after a 120-107 home loss to Boston, but James will take it upon himself here to respond and take advantage of a Bulls team which fell 131-108 in Detroit on Sunday. The Lakers are still 12-5 ATS in their last 17 after two straight losses by ten points or more, while the Bulls are only 5-12 ATS this season as a home dog of six points or less. I think James “goes off” tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-19 | Pistons v. Nets -2 | Top | 75-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). Purely from a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for Brooklyn and it’s become the basis of this particular selection. These teams have split a pair of meetings earlier in the season, with each winning on its own floor. The Pistons come in off five straight wins, but after completing the home and home sweep of Chicago just yesterday afternoon, I think Detroit finally comes in tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. The Nets enter almost as hot with three straight victories. Brooklyn’s been off since Saturday night though and I think it’ll take advantage of this favorable spot. These two are in a dog fight at the lower end of the Eastern Conference ladder and home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor either in my opinion. Additionally note that Detroit is just 11-13 ATS as a road underdog this year, while Brooklyn is 17-10 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. I’m laying the points and expecting a decisive home victory. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-19 | Magic -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 97-105 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Orlando Magic (5:05 EST). The Magic haven’t thrown in the towel yet in the weak East. Orlando comes in off a 111-106 home win over the Magic in their latest contest. The Grizzlies are well out of the playoff picture, but they come in off a 114-104 home win over the Jazz on Friday. These teams haven’t played this year yet, but Orlando has won three straight in the series. The Magic are currently just one game behind the Heat for the final playoff spot. Orlando averages 105.9 PPG and it concedes 106.8. Nikola Vucevic has been unstoppable for the last ten games with 20.9 points, 12.3 boards and 4.7 assists per game. The Grizzlies looked poised for a letdown here after two straight wins. Overall Memphis averages 101.6 PPG, while allowing 103.8. Mike Conley averages 23.3 points and 5.6 assists per game. Orlando is clearly the “hungrier” team here. It has everything to play for. The Grizzlies have played well in two straight, but this is a team still looking for an identity and which is well out of a playoff spot. Note as well that the Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on one days rest, while the Grizz are a poor 18-38 ATS in its last 56 Eastern Conference opponents. Play on Orlando. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-19 | Hornets +12.5 v. Bucks | Top | 114-131 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Charlotte Hornets (10:05 EST). I had a play on the Hornets last night, and while they beat the visiting Wizards, they didn’t cover the spread. Charlotte is still in a dog fight for a playoff spot though and it can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here facing East leading Milwaukee. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Charlotte got 30 points from Jeremy Lamb on Friday and he and the rest of his team will look to take advantage of a Bucks team that’s lost three of its last four. In fact the Bucks entered their latest win vs. the Pacers have lost three previous. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 29 points, 12 boards and five assists in the win over Indiana. I think Milwaukee gets caught looking past its lowly, but very hungry opponent tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Charlotte Hornets (7:05 EST). Washington comes in off a 132-123 home win over impotent Dallas on Wednesday, but I think it’ll struggle here in this difficult road venue. The Hornets won’t be lacking for motivation here after giving up a lead in a 91-84 setback to Miami on Wednesday. So far these teams have split a pair of games this season and home floor advantage has been crucial. Charlotte won 123-110 at home in the last meeting on February 22nd and I expect a similar final score here as well. The Wizards are poised for a letdown after back-to-back home victories. Bradley Beal had 30 points and seven boards in the win over the Mavs on Wednesday. Despite the back-to-back victories, the Wizards are just 5-5 in their last ten, allowing 119 points during that stretch. Charlotte has been playing poorly as well of late, but it’ll be the hungrier team for sure after back-to-back losses. Kemba Walker had 20 points in a losing cause last time out. Overall the Hornets are just 3-7 in their last ten. Washington’s achilles heel though has been consistency from game to game, especially on the road where it’s a terrible 6-17 ATS as an underdog (just 9-23 ATS on the road overall.) Charlotte hasn’t been particularly great ATS at home this year, but it’s 2-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite this year. I think the Wizards have a letdown here in their first game on the road, while I expect the hungry Hornets to leave everything they have on the floor to break their slide. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-19 | Thunder +4 v. Blazers | Top | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the OKC Thunder (10:35 EST). OKC comes in off a 131-120 road loss in Minnesota on Tuesday, while Portland fell 120-111 at Memphis on Tuesday. This is a matchup which has proved difficult for Portland (OKC is 3-0 in the season series so far, including a 120-111 home win in the last meeting on Feb. 11th.) Clearly I always take the “revenge” angle into account when making my picks. Sometimes though the revenge angle doesn’t work because of the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into the contest. And that’s the case here. The Thunder have lost five of their last six, almost entirely because of the absence of the injured Paul George. Whether George plays or not tonight, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can at least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Westbrook had 38 points, 13 boards and six assists in a losing cause last time out. The Blazers return home off a successful 5-2 road trip, but they looked pretty poor vs. a weak Grizzlies offense in their finale. Another letdown in the first game back home after the lengthy trip seems imminent to me. CJ McCollum led the Blazers with 27 points in the loss. I think the conditions are right for the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-19 | Celtics v. Kings +2 | Top | 111-109 | Push | 0 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
The third pick (10*) of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sac. Kings (10:05 EST). I base my picks on many different things. This one is based entirely on common sense. If the Boston Celtics have shown anything this season, it’s been inconsistency in effort from game to game. Boston enters off a big win at Golden State just last night and I expect it to have a predicable letdown here in the second game of the back to back. Sacramento has been “money in the bank” for bettors in this spot by going 14-8 ATS as a home underdog and 22-11 ATS at home overall. The Kings are also a solid 15-7 ATS in non-conference games this year, while the C’s are only 8-15 ATS in the same position. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Nuggets (8:35 EST). Denver has been the talk of the NBA all year, but the Nuggets have been waffling of late. Denver comes to town off a 120-112 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday. The Spurs have won two in a row after getting the better of OKC 116-102 at home on Saturday (Paul George was not in the line-up for the Thunder in that one.) Denver now trails Golden State by 1.5 games, while sitting 3.5 ahead of Portland. The Blazers of course are coming off a big win in Charlotte last night, so a win here after two straight losses is paramount for the visiting side. The Nuggets average 112.2 PPG and they allow 107.2. Nikola Jokic has been a difference maker for Denver and he averages 22.4 points, 11.7 boards and 7.4 assists per game. San Antonio is in the eighth spot currently in the East, but the one thing that it’s definitely shown this year is difficulty with consistency from game-to-game. The Spurs average 112 PPG and they concede 111.2. Over their last ten though they’re just 3-7 while averaging 108.6 PPG. DeMar DeRozan has led the way over this poor stretch with 23 points and 6.1 boards. I like Denver to get back on track and break its two game slide, while everything points to a predictable letdown for San Antonio after back-to-back victories. Play on the Nuggets. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-19 | Rockets +3 v. Celtics | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (3:35 EST). The Rockets hit the road after a 121-118 home win over Miami, while Boston got the better of Washington 107-96 in its latest action. Houston destroyed Boston 127-113 at home in the first meeting back on December 27th and I’m expecting a small upset here as well. James Harden had 58 points, seven boards and ten assists in the Rockets’ most recent win over Miami. Houston averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.2. The Rockets are now 7-3 in their last ten and have gotten progressively more consistent as point guard Chris Paul has gotten healthier. The Celtics snapped a four-game slide vs. the lowly Wizards, but Boston has struggled against the NBA’s “elite.” I think that will once again be the case here. The C’s average 112.1 PPG and they allow 106.6. Houston is surging right (4-1-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss) and I think it brings its “A” game in this high-profile contest. Boston has been consistently inconsistent all year (note is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest) and I believe that trend continues here. Clearly the outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-19 | Nets +4 v. Heat | Top | 88-117 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). Brooklyn looks to make a quick rebound here after falling 123-112 at home to Charlotte just last night. Miami comes in off a 121-118 road loss to Houston and I think it’ll predictably falter here in its first game back in friendly confines after an extended Western swing. These teams have split a pair of games this year, with each winning on the others floor. The Nets are out of the playoff picture now, but not by much. Brooklyn needs to start finding its winning touch again quickly if it has any hope though. Overall the Nets average 112 PPG and they concede 112.5. D’Angelo Russell averages 25.9 PPG. After beating the Warriors, the Heat lost to the Rockets and I believe the team suffers another letdown here. Overall the Heat average only 105.7 PPG, while allowing 106.8. Miami is now just 3-7 SU in its last ten. The Heat are also only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games, which doesn’t bode well facing a Nets side which is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing SU home record. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (10*) Sacramento Kings (10:05 EST). The Clippers lost in Utah on Wednesday and I think they’ll stumble in this difficult road venue as well. The home side won’t be lacking for motivation here after back-to-back losses to the Bucks and Wolves. LA looked terrible in the loss to the Jazz, shooting just 39.4 percent from the floor overall, including going just 5 of 24 from range. Lou Williams was a bright spot off the bench with 18 points, two boards, six assists and two steals. The Kings have lost four straight close games, including a 141-140 setback to the Bucks most recently. Sacramento guard Buddy Hield had 32 points, six boards, three assist and three steals in the most recent setback. In what could be a potential playoff series preview, I think the “hungrier” home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-19 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET. The 34-26 Utah Jazz won 111-105 last night in Salt Lake City over the Clippers and tonight visit Pepsi Center In Denver to take on the 42-18 Nuggets. Utah resides in sixth place in the West and this contest in Denver begins a stretch during which EIGHT of the team's next 13 games will be on the road. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are just one-half game behind first-place Golden State in the Western Conference and enter on a five-game overall winning streak in which the Nuggets have scored 120 or more points three times. Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points against the Clippers and has now recorded 20 or more points in 20 of his last 21 contests. That's hardly news, as the second-year SG averages a team-high 22.9 PPG (4.0 RPG & 4.0 APG, as well). Joining Mitchell in the starting lineup are PG Rubio (13.2 & 6.0 APG). center Gobert (15.4 & 12.9), swingman Ingles (11.8-3.8-5.0) and PF Favors (11.2 & 7.2). Coming off the bench are SF Crowder (12.1 & 4.8) and swingman Korver (9.1 PPG on 39.1% three-point shooting). All-Star center Nikola Jokic recorded 36 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds to narrowly miss his 13th triple-double of the season in Tuesday's home win over the Thunder. Jokic is averaging 20.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 7.7 assists to lead Denver in all THREE categories. The Nuggets have played much of the season with key players sidelined but other than an ankle injury to forward Trey Lyles (9.2), Denver is now healthy. A remarkable NINE Denver players average between 7.0 and 18.1 PPG, which doesn't include Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 11.3 PPG in 17 minutes in the last four games (his 1st action of the season). The homecourt edge has really meant something in this series, with host side winning and covering all SIX meetings since last season. Denver opened the season 6-0 at home but then lost THREE in a row from Nov 9-13. Since then, Denver is 21-1 SU at home, going 17-5 ATS. Why step in front of that 'train?' Not I. Good luck...Larry |
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02-27-19 | Blazers v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The Boston Celtics have now lost FIVE of their last seven games, after Tuesday's 118-95 loss in Toronto (ended a winless three-game road trip). The struggling Celtics hope to begin a turnaround when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday. The Blazers enter having reeled off four straight victories and led by 23 points at halftime before letting Cleveland back in the game but then finishing strong in Monday's 123-110 road win. 37-23 Portland currently holds down the West's No. 4 seed , two games up on No. 5 Houston but also just one game back of No. 3 OKC. Portland is led by the dynamic guard duo of Lillard (25.8-4.6-6.5) and McCollum (21.1 & 4.1) plus center Nurkic (15.4 & 10.2). Also, the recent addition of Kanter (14.3 & 7.7 in three games) can't be underestimated. Kyrie Irving had a miserable game for the Celtics with only seven points last night and head coach Brad Stevens ripped his club following the lackluster effort. "I thought we were all over the place defensively. We're taking too many shortcuts,” Stevens told reporters. "We have to be a lot more connected as a team. That’s been a theme for a while." Irving (23.5 & 6.9 APG) has been increasingly frustrated in recent weeks, and his response to a question about how to fix the defensive issues was a brief one - "That's up to Brad," he said of the coach. The Raptors were 17-for-36 from three-point range and built a 21-point halftime advantage as Boston allowed at least 109 points for the SIXTH time in seven games. The Blazers beat the Celtics 100-94 in Portland earlier this season (Nov 11) but they are just 7-12 as road dog on the season. The Celtics are 23-8 SU at home, outscoring opponents by 9.6 PPG (are 19-10 as a home favorite). This marks Boston's first home game at TD Garden since teh All Star break (actually Feb 13, which is TWO weeks ago!). Off last night's 'ugly' effort, expect a bounce back! Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors were expected to be among the top contenders in the Eastern Conference this season. The Raptors have lived up to expectations but as for the Celtics, not so much! 37-23 Boston visits Toronto on Tuesday night mired in fifth place in the East after losing FOUR of its past six games. Meanwhile, 44-17 Toronto sits No. 2 in the East and still have the first-place Milwaukee Bucks in their sights (Raptors trail the Bucks by just 2 1/2 games). Boston was humbled 126-116 by the 16-45 Bulls on Saturday in Chicago in its most recent game. "We just got outplayed in every which way," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "There are no two ways around it. You know, credit them obviously. Once they got rolling, there was no stopping them." PG Kyrie Irving (23.8 & 6.9 APG) has been frustrated with his team's play in recent weeks. He had 37 points and 10 assists against the Bulls but the Celtics still lost by 10. Small forward Gordon Hayward (11.1 & 4.6) seemed to be rounding into form in recent weeks but scored just five points in 24 minutes against Chicago, after missing one game with an ankle injury. Boston has a deep frontcourt, with SF Tatum (16.4 & 6.3) and swingman Brown (12.8 & 4.7) plus PF Morris (14.4 & 6.1) and PF/C Horford (13.1 & 6.9). Boston's D remains among the best in the NBA, allowing 106.8 PPG (5th) on 44.2% shooting (2nd). Toronto saw its seven-game winning streak end with a surprising 113-98 home loss to the Orlando Magic Toronto decided to rest Khawi Leonard () against the Mgic and the contest fell in between Friday's emotional game with the San Antonio Spurs -- Leonard's former team -- and the Celtics. So much for planning! The startling loss to Orlando dropped Toronto to 13-4 when playing without Leonard. PF/C Siakam (16.1 & 7.0) has been a huge surprise this season, while PF Ibaka (15.9 & 8.1) and PG Lowry (14.5-4.4-9.10 have contributed solid seasons. Ibaka scored 14 points off the bench to extend his career-long streak of consecutive games in double digits to 22. Expect trade deadline acquisition Marc Gasol (10.0 & 6.2 in five games) and Jeremy Lin (8.3 & 4.0 APG) to be valuable additions as the season winds down towards the playoffs. This is the fourth and final time the two teams meet in the regular season. The Celtics have won the two matchups in Boston, while the Raptors also protected home court with a 113-101 win on Oct 19. NOTHING changes here, as the home team wins and covers once again. Leonard returns and Toronto eliminates the 'bad taste' left by that home loss to the Magic, while reminding the Celtics that if they have to play in Toronto this postseason, they'll be in BIG trouble! Good luck...Larry |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the GS Warriors at 8:35 ET. James Harden is in sole possession of the second-longest 30-point scoring streak in NBA history at an astounding 32 games but his Houston Rockets lost 111-106 at teh Lakers in Houston's first game back from the break. Harden scored exactly 30 points before fouling out with 1:24 remaining on Thursday and watched from the bench as Houston finished squandering a 19-point lead in a 111-106 defeat at Staples Center. The Warriors returned from the break on Thursday as well, eking out a 125-123 win over the Sacramento Kings in Oakland. It's hardly been smooth sailing for Golden St this season but at 42-16, the Warriors own the West's best record and are within two games of Milwaukee for the NBA's best record, overall. Houston center Clint Capela (17.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG are career highs!) returned from a 15-game absence on Thursday (thumb), scoring 12 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in 33 minutes. However, the Rockets lost their second in a row and fell to 33-25, a full 12 games below where they stood at this point last season. Some analysts are grumbling about the club's style of play and reliance on Harden (36.5-6.7-7.7). Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni labeled such talk "absurd" before the Thursday game. "I don't know if they watched last year," he said of the naysayers. "Nobody else can do what he does. ... If you're a ball-stopper, usually you're inefficient. He's very efficient. So when the ball stops, it's a good thing."Is D'Antoni right? I'm NOT convinced. KD (27.6-7.0-5.9) was named the MVP of Sunday’s All-Star Game in Charlotte, and he showed off his skills at both ends of the floor in Thursday's win. He scored 28 points, grabbed nine rebounds and handed out four assists while matching a career high with seven blocked shots! Curry (28.8-5.1-5.3) added 36 points while going 10-of-16 from 3-point range, setting an NBA record with his fifth game this season with 10 or more made three-pointers. Golden St ranks 1st in scoring (118.9 PPG) and FG percentage (49.0), while ranking third in three-point percentage (38.4) and 4th in FT percentage (81.3). The Warriors have NOT been money-makers for awhile now but they almost will SURELY been heavily focused on Houston, which has already beaten them twice this season, including 135-134 in OT at Golden State on Jan 3. The Warriors have won 17 of their last 19 games and "put it all together" here vs the Rockets,. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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02-22-19 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 147-148 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET. Both the Utah Jazz and the OKC Thunder return from the All Star break with both teams looking to make amends. The Jazz lost 115-108 at Golden St in their last game before the break, while the Thunder lost 131-122 at New Orleans in their last time on the court. The 32-25 Jazz currently own the West's 6th-seed but are only 2 1/2 games clear of the playoff 'cut line.' As for the Thunder, they have recovered from an 0-4 start to the season to go 37-16. The team's 37-20 record gives them the West's 3rd-best record and seem to be a huge favorite to enter the postseason with one of the West's top-four records (good enough for the homecourt edge in the first round). The Jazz return to the court after a 10-day break. They have won 13 of their last 16 games and as noted above, come out of the break sixth in the Western Conference. However, the good news is that they have one of the NBA's easiest schedules down the stretch, playing just eight of their final 25 games against teams that are above .500. Center Rudy Gobert didn't hide his disappointment at not making the NBA All-Star Game for the first time despite, averaging 15.2 points and 12.9 rebounds while leading the league in field-goal percentage (65.4). "Just recharge, completely -- mentally, physically," Gobert said. "For me, I was able to get a little bit of sun and feel a lot better when I get back. The next two months, I feel like, will be a lot better." He's surrounded by a backcourt led by Mitchell (22.4-3.9-4.0) and PG Rubio (13.0 & 6.1 APG). Up front, it's SF Ingles (11.7-3.8-4.9) and PF Favors (11.0 & 7.1). SF Crowder comes off the bench to average 11.8 & 4.7, while SG Korver adds 9.5 PPG on 39.8% shooting from three-point range. Defensively, the Jazz allow 105.9 PPG to rank 4t-best in the league. OKC was 11-1 SU (10-2 ATS) prior to the team's loss at New Orleans just before the break. PG Russell Westbrook (21.7-11.2-11.2) takes to the court looking to extend his record of 11 straight triple-doubles, a stretch in which he is averaging 21.1-13.3-13.5 (he owns 24 triple-doubles on the season).Paul George (28.7-8.0-4.10 is having an outstanding season and that duo gets significant help from four more players. Backup PG Schroder 915.7 & 4.1 APG) is the team's third-leading score with starters like center Adams (14.7 & 9.5), PF Grant (13.1 & 5.1) and SG Ferguson (6.8) completing the group. More help is on the way with recently signed forward Markieff Morris expected to make his team debut after missing the last eight weeks due to a neck injury. Morris averaged 11.5 points and 5.1 rebounds in 34 games for the Washington Wizards before the injury and said he is ready to play a role in helping Oklahoma City make a deep playoff run. I noted above that the Jazz have a VERY favorable schedule down the stretch. However, in stark contrast, the Thunder have one of the league's most challenging schedules moving forward. OKC plays 17 of its remaining 25 games against teams above .500 including each of the first five out of the break. That said, the Thunder are 2-0 against the Jazz this season and have won the past five regular-season matchups. What's more, the Thunder have won 15 straight regular-season home games against Jazz with Utah's last win in Oklahoma City being a 120-99 rout on Oct. 31, 2010. Lay the short price! Good luck...Larry |