Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

I’ve played on the Cubs in each of the last two games and I believe they’re going to produce the series sweep this afternoon. The home side has to be feeling confident it can keep the good times rolling by handing the ball to Jose Quintana (6-7, 4.19 ERA) who won his final two games before the break (Quintana has dominated the Pirates throughout his career as well, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA with 46 K’s and six walks spanning 42 frames opposed). The now struggling visiting side counters with Trevor Williams (3-2, 4.54) who is 3-4 with a 4.25 ERA in nine games vs. Chicago with 19 walks and 30 K’s over 42 1/3’s innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 9-16 this season as a +150 or higher underdog.

- Chicago is 16-5 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I think that Quintana could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

It’s a big game for the Mets, as they look to start the second half off with a road series win, which will be their first in three months. New York has to be feeling confident as well in handing the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.27 ERA) who has posted a tiny 2.68 ERA over his last seven starts (61 K’s and seven walks.) The home side counters with Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 3.82) who has been hit or miss this year and who I think is in the wrong place at the wrong time today. 

Key Trends:

- New York is 24-15 in its last 39 as a road favorite of -125 or higher.

- Miami is just 5-17 as a home dog in the +125 to +200 range this year.

The verdict: I like the All Star deGrom to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia battles back here in my opinion to avoid the series sweep. Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.67 ERA) gets the call for the home side, while the Nationals counter with Anibal Sanchez (5-6, 3.66). Neither starter has been particularly impressive this season and each has struggled against his respective opponent today. In my opinion the starters a “wash” and the difference comes in the numbers/trends/stats and on the home side’s desperation levels.

Key Trends:

- Washington is still just 23-24 (-5.4 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records.

- Philadelphia is 27-15 as a home favorite still this year.

The verdict: After winning 12 of their last 14 and the first two of this series, I think the Nationals finally have a letdown here and I look for the desperate Phillies to take advantage. Play on Philadelphia!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals.

I think we’re getting a great price on the superior starter in this one. The Cards will be hungry to bounce back after last night’s 4-2 series opening loss. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.03 ERA) has been “hit or miss” this year and while he’s been decent of late, I think he’s in the “wrong place” at the “wrong time” tonight. The home side counters with Dakota Hudson (7-4, 3.51) who has made eight straight quality starts. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is already just 2-4 this year after four or more consecutive victories.

- St. Louis is already 6-3 this season after three or more consecutive losses. 

The verdict: After four straight wins, I think that the D-Backs finally have a letdown here. And after three straight losses, I expect the Cardinals to lay everything on the line and play with a sense of desperation. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs.

I had a play on the Cubs last night and I think they’ll carry over their momentum from the victory here in what sets up to be another favorable matchup for them on the mound. The visitors go with Jordan Lyles (5-5, 4.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Lester (8-6, 3.72). Lester is 9-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 19 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Lester is also 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA at home this year. Lyles is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. Chicago. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 9-16 as a +150 or higher dog this season.

- Chicago is 26-13 as a home favorite this year.

The verdict: I expect Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

I think this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.60 ERA), while the home side goes with Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40.) The Padres closed the first half with three straight road wins vs. the Dodgers and I think that a classic “letdown” to open the second is imminent. Keuchel has looked decent since coming to Atlanta, allowing 11 runs over 25 innings with 12 K’s (note that Keuchel is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA with seven K’s over 14 innings vs. the Friars.) Lamet is making his second start back after having Tommy John surgery last year. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is 15-6 (+8.1 units) this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher.

- San Diego is just 7-8 this season vs. southpaws.

The verdict: Note that the Padres are only 23-24 at Petco this year as well. Look for Keuchel to easily get the better of his still untested counterpart and lay this price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

Cleveland comes in as the “hungrier” team, as it still sits behind Minnesota in the standings. But the Tribe won 21 of their last 29 to close the first half and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (8-4, 4.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-2, 4.44). Gibson is 3-9 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts vs. Cleveland, while Clevinger is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in ten starts vs. Minnesota.

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is just 2-5 (-2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Cleveland is 18-12 (+6.1 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: I think the Twins take a step back in the second half and I expect the Indians to carry over their recent momentum. All things considered, a very fair price on the home side; lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Orioles.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

I think we’re getting great value on the superior pitcher. The Nationals hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-3, 5.84). Washington comes in as the hottest team in the league, having gone 28-11 since May 24th. The Phillies closed the first half by going just 14-21. Strasburg is 12-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Philadelphia, while Pivetta is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA over his last four outings overall and 1-6 with a 10.80 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Washington.

Key Trends:

- Washington is 20-10 (+4.3 units) already this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- Philadelphia is just 3-11 (-6.5 units) already this season as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: Starsburg at this price and in this match-up is a “steal” in my opinion. Play on the Nationals!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

Both the Pirates’ Chris Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) and the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01) have been terrible this season. Each has struggled against their respective opponents as well. It was only three years ago that each of these guys was an All Star as well. Regardless, for this contest I’m calling these “gas cans” a “wash.” The difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is a horrible 65-100 (-8.7 units) the L2 years as a road dog.

- Chicago is 15-5 (+7.4 units) already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range.

The verdict: I think the Cubs send an early message to the rest of the division with a big night at the plate to open the second half. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Astros/Rangers.

The Astros have a 7.5 game lead in the American League West, but I think they come out flat here to open the second half. Houston faces a tough opponent in veteran Lance Lynn (11-4, 3.91 ERA) as well, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Houston. Houston counters with Framber Valdez (3-4, 4.57) who has struggled in the big leagues this year for the most part, after going 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA last season.

Key Trends:

- Note though that Houston has seen the total go under the number in 27 of 44 this year vs. teams with winning records.

- Additionally note that Texas has seen the total dip under in both contests it’s played in this season in which trying to revenge two straight losses where opponent scored eight or more runs in.

The verdict: Based primarily upon Lynn’s recent form, look for this total stay well under once it’s all said and done; play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under All Star Game.

The AL has won six straight in this series. Both line-ups feature plenty of home-run power, but I think that after last night’s historic home run derby battle, that the Mid-Summer Classic will be dominated by the pitchers. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Justin Verlander square off to open things up and they’ve been nearly untouchable over the first half. The “pitchers” on both sides come in with a chip on their collective shoulders after Verlander blasted the league yesterday about what he feels to be “juiced balls.” The home run rate over the first half is at 2.74 per game, which ranks the highest since the “steroid era.”

The verdict: But while most are probably reckoning on a higher-scoring slug-fest, I’m going the other way and expecting the men on the mound to dominate tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers.

I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Lucchesi (6-4, 3.91 ERA), while the Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling (3-2, 3.45.) After consecutive defeats to the Friars, I expect the Dodgers to lay everything on the line here as they look to close the first half on a winning note. Note that in 13 appearances vs. the Padres, Stripling owns a tiny 2.61 ERA. Lucchesi on the other hand is 0-3 with a ballooned 7.64 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. the Dodgers.

Key Trends:

- San Diego is still just 18-21 (-5.1 units) this year vs. the division.

- LA is still 10-3 (+6 units) this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: I look for Stripling to come in focused on the task at hand; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

This should be a highly entertaining finale between two teams hungry for a win. However, I think that Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola (7-2, 3.89 ERA) offers great value at this price. The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (6-5, 4.42). Wheeler gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Yanks in his last outing, while Nola went eight scoreless vs. the Braves in a 2-0 victory on Tuesday. 

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia is 20-9 (+14.1 units) in its last 29 off a one run loss vs. a division rival.

- New York is just 4-9 (-5.6 units) this season following a one run victory.

The verdict: Look for Nola to build off his latest gem and look for Philadelphia to bounce back after last night’s 6-5 setback!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Dodgers.

Chris Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) has been great for San Diego and while the Padres rallied to even this four-game series at 1-1 last night, I think the rookie hurler struggles on the road vs. this difficult opponent (note that Paddack faced the Dodgers back on May 14th and he was shelled for six runs over four innings). LA sees Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.78) toe the slab tonight; Maeda is 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Friars.

Key Trends:

- San Diego is already a terrible 7-9 (-4 units) this year after scoring three runs or less in two straight games.

- LA is a terrific 10-2 (+7.6 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: I think Paddack struggles in the bright lights of Chavez Ravine; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Fran Giants.

I like the home side to bounce back here after last night’s 9-4 series opening setback. The Giants turn to Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 4.02 ERA) who comes in on top form, off back-to-back victories over Colorado an Arizona, the veteran has conceded just three runs off seven hits over his last 13 innings, while also striking out 20. The visitors go with Miles Mikolas (5-8, 4.34) who has looked much better of late after a shaky start to the campaign, but who I believe is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is just 8-17 (-7.4 units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

- San Francisco is 9-5 in its last 14 as a favorite of -110 or higher.

The verdict: I think Bumgarner continues his torrid stretch to end the first half; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Phillies/Mets.

Two hungry veteran hurlers collide in their final starts before the All Star break and I’m expecting a classic “duel.” Philadelphia took the opener of this series 7-2. New York has gone just 13-23 since May 27th, but despite last night’s win, Philadelphia has just nine victories in its last 24 games (five of which have come vs. the Mets.) Noah Syndergaard gets the call for the home side and he’ll be asked to “throw deep,” as Mets relievers have an atrocious 8.01 ERA since May 27th (Syndergaard is 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 11 starts vs. Philadelphia.) Phillies’ starter Jake Arrieta own a sharp 2.85 ERA in 13 career regular season starts vs. the Mets.

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 26 of its last 41 following a victory.

- New York has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this year when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5.

The verdict: I think the writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards; play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

Miami has lost five straight coming into this final series before the All Star break. Braves’ starter Max Fried, who is 9-3 with a 4.04 ERA gets the nod for the home side. Fried has actually struggled vs. the Marlins over three career starts, posting a 5.14 ERA, but Miami has struggled at the plate of late, as evidenced by last night’s 1-0 setback.

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is 9-1 vs. Miami this year.

- The Fish have scored more than two runs in only three of the ten in the series this year.

The verdict: Miami starter Caleb Smith hasn’t pitched since June 6th because of a hip issue. Lay the price and expect Fried to get back on track!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Enough is enough! After six straight losses in this series, I like the Rays to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. So far New York is 9-2 in this season series after last night’s 8-4 win. In fact New York has taken the first two games of this series by the identical score: "There's a lot of baseball left," TB manager Kevin Cash assessed after last night’s setback. "We just got to play better against this team. You take out what we've done against the Yankees, I think we're all really thrilled, but you can't do that. We'd certainly like to feel better about ourselves going into the break." Rays’ starter Blake Snell has performed poorly over the first half of the season, but he comes in off his best start of the season, giving up two runs over six innings in a 6-2 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Yanks starter CC Sabathia throws for the first time since June 24th.

Key Trends:

- New York is a poor 2-5 (-2.4 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- The Rays are still 21-16 this season following a loss.

The verdict: I think Snell closes the first half with a gem and I expect the desperate home side to provide their ace with just enough support. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s.

I think the A’s Brett Anderson (8-5, 3.92 ERA) is the correct call in this matchup vs. the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 5.12). Oakland has won 12 of its last 16 to move into second place, which it capped off with a 7-2 win over the Twins on Thursday (I unfortunately had the Twins in that one, and while I’m never one to “flip flop” from one team to the next, baseball is the one sport in which each contest has to be looked at individually, because of the starting pitching. And that’s definitely the case here.) Seattle on the other hand has lost six of its last seven. 

Key Trends:

- Anderson went eight scoreless in a 4-0 win over the Angels in his last start and he’s 9-5 with a 2.34 ERA in 21 career appearances vs. the M’s.

- Kikuchi has faced Oakland four times and he’s 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in those outings.

The verdict: All things considered, I think that this line could/should in fact be much larger. Play on Oakland!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Inept offense. The Brewers have a slim lead in the division, but they’ve sure been struggling down the stretch; note that the offense has been shutout in back-to-back games and I don’t think things get any easier facing the Pirates’ Steven Brault, who is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA since joining the rotation permanently in late May. 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is just 19-24 (-5.6 units) on the road this year.

- Pittsburgh is 2-0 (+3.1 units) this year following a loss by eight runs or more to a division rival (just fell 11-3 to the Cubs.)

The verdict: Brewers’ starter Zach Davies has had success vs. Pittsburgh in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Play on the home side!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Angels/Rangers.

Both the Angels and Rangers are known for their prowess at the plate, but I think it’ll be the starting pitchers who will grab the headlines in tomorrow’s summaries. Griffin Canning (3-4, 3.79 ERA) toes the slab for the Angels, while the Rangers counter with Lance Lynn (10-4, 4.00). Canning got back on track in his last outing with a 8-3 win over the A’s, allowing two runs off three hits with six K’s over six innings of work. Lynn though is the difference maker overall here, as he arguably comes in as the hottest pitcher in all of MLB, going 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA in June, most recently throwing eight shutout innings in a 5-0 victory over Tampa Bay on Friday.

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 following a victory.

- Texas has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 19 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 

The verdict: I expect these two hot hurlers to continue their recent form. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Phillies/Braves.

Two very competent hurlers collide in this one and I think they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. The visitors turn to Zach Eflin (7-7, 3.34 ERA), while the home side sees All Star Game bound rookie phenom Mike Soroka (9-1, 2.13) toe the slab. These two teams are in a battle right now, with the Braves sitting 5.5 games ahead of the second-place Phillies. Soroka most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the Mets. Eflin comes in off a strong outing vs. the Marlins, giving up three runs over six innings. 

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 17 already this year after having won five or six of its last seven games.

- Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 16 of its last 26 vs. clubs with losing records.

The verdict: Game 1 of this series went well below the posted number and the finale also sets up great as a “duel” in my opinion. Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

Jose Berrios (8-4, 2.89 ERA) hasn’t been at his best over his last couple starts, but he just found out that he’ll be replacing teammate Jake Odorrizi in the upcoming All Star Game this weekend. With a chance to erase his scuffling stretch with one last winning effort before the break, I expect Berrios to make the most of this favorable match. And that’s because his counterpart is confirmed “gas can” Tanner Anderson (0-3, 7.13) who has been crushed for ten runs off 15 hits over his last six innings of work. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is a red hot 11-3 (+6.6 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- Oakland is a terrible 1-4 (-2.4 units) this season as a home underdog of +125 or higher.

The verdict: Look for Berrios to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Pirates.

The Cubs will be desperate to get back on track here after losing the first three games of this four game set. Pittsburgh has outscored them 29-11 in the process. The Pirates clearly won’t be “rolling over” though, as they’re now just two games behind slumping Chicago. Jose Quintana (5-7, 4.21 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Jordan Lyles (5-4, 3.71). Quintana certainly won’t be taking anything for granted here either after breaking his six-game losing streak last time out, going six scoreless vs. the Reds: "I needed an outing like that to get my confidence back," Quintana said. "My focus was on one pitch at a time. ... I had confidence. My stuff worked really good.” Note that Quintana is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in six career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Lyles comes in off a loss despite pitching well, giving up three runs over six frames in a 3-1 loss to Milwaukee. Lyles is a sharp 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 career match ups vs. Chicago.

Key Trends:

- Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 25 vs. the division.

- Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in six of its last ten vs. southpaws.

The verdict: Note that Cubs’ slugger Jason Heyward is questionable for this one. When you add it all up, this one sets up as more of a “duel” than a “slugfest.” Play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Brewers/Reds.

Considering the talent level on the mound, I believe this total is much too high. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA), while the Reds go with Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.47). The Brewers lost 3-0 yesterday and they’ve now lost ten of their last 16, just 4.5 games ahead of the last-place Reds. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff though enters on top form as he posted his second straight on Saturday by allowing one run off six hits spanning eight frames of work in a victory over the Pirates. 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 vs. clubs with losing records.

- The Reds have seen the total dip under in nine of 14 as a home dog this year.

- Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 32 of 59 vs. teams with winning records this season.

The verdict: Expect these hungry starters to battle deep and for the above trends to continue strong. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA), while the Reds go with Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.47). The Brewers lost 3-0 yesterday and they’ve now lost ten of their last 16, just 4.5 games ahead of the last-place Reds. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Woodruff though enters on top form as he posted his second straight win on Saturday by allowing one run off six hits spanning eight frames of work in a victory over the Pirates.  

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is still 21-10 (+10.4 units) this year in all day games. 

- Cincinnati is just 12-24 (-11.8 units) this season in all day games.

The verdict: The Brewers only have a 4.5 game lead over the last placed Reds and after yesterday’s humbling defeat, I expect them to come in focused on the task at hand vs. the struggling Castillo. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres.

I had a big play on the Padres last night and I’m stunned at how poorly Matt Strahm performed. With revenge fresh on their minds though, I expect the Padres to bounce back here. San Diego is now one game under .500 with four games to go before the All Star break. San Diego has to play its next four vs. the Dodgers as well, putting added emphasis onto tonight’s contest. The Friars should be pumped up as well after back-to-back humbling defeats to the Giants (13-2, 10-4. Can anyone say “letdown spot” for San Fran?!) SD goes with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.66 ERA), while the Giants go with Shaun Anderson (3-2, 3.86). Quantrill has made ten major league appearances and has a 1.36 WHIP and a .268 opponents batting average, allowing 19 runs with 12 walks and 32 K’s over 36 2/3’s innings of work. Anderson has been sharp in his limited time, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is a terrible 1-5 (-3 units) already this season after having won four of its last five games.

- San Diego is 13-8 (+3.9 units) this year after having lost three of its last four games.

The verdict: I think San Fran’s letdown is imminent; lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians -157 8:15 EST

Mike Clevinger (1-2, 5.89 ERA) has been injured most of the season and he returned just last week and gave up the most runs in his career (seven earned runs over just 1 2/3’s innings vs. the Orioles.) Despite that though, I think he’ll bounce back here with a much better effort and at the very least, match Danny Duffy (3-4, 4.43) inning for inning. Cleveland won 9-5 last night and it’s now 18-9 since June. Also note that Clevinger is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA lifetime vs. KC. Duffy is a downright terrible 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Tribe. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine road games after scoring nine or more runs in its previous contest.

- Kansas City is a brutal 15-31 (-7.2 units) vs. teams with winning records.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, lay the price on the hot hitting road team!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Phillies/Braves.

Both Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.63 ERA) of the Phillies and Brian Wilson (0-0, 8.31) of the Braves will be eager to get untracked here. Philadelphia won for the fifth ten in seven games last night behind eight shutout innings from Aaron Nola. Pivetta will be coming in confident though as he’s 4-1 with a sharp 3.48 ERA in ten career outings vs. Atlanta. Wilson received a no-decision vs. the Phillies already this year back on March 30th, giving up four runs over four innings. Wilson’s been called up from Triple-A Gwinnett to make this start. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta though has seen the total dip below the number in 15 of its last 22 vs. teams with winning records.

- Philadelphia has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 19 as a road underdog.

The verdict: I like these two pitchers to battle deep into the latter frames and as such, I definitely think that the under is the correct call!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Marlins/Nats.

A couple of competent hurlers collide in this one on Wednesday night and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel.” Sandy Alcantara (4-7, 3.86 ERA) gets the nod for the Fish, while Stephen Strasburg goes for the Nationals. Strasburg has dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 19-7 with a 2.97 ERA over 33 lifetime meetings (he’s already 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA vs. them in two starts this season.) Alcantara was 0-2 vs. Washington last year and he’s 0-2 vs. them this season. Clearly he’s not going to be lacking for motivation. 

Key Trends:

- Miami has seen the total go under the number in six of eight this year as a road dog of +200 or higher.

- Washington has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six at home when then total is either 9 or 9.5.

The verdict: Expect these starters to battle each other deep into the latter frames and play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres

The Giants scored the upset in last night’s opener, but I expect the home side to respond in a big way on Tuesday. The Padres go with Matt Strahm (3-6, 4.94 ERA), while the visitors go with Tyler Beede (1-3, 6.45). Strahm struggled mightily in four June starts before hitting the DL for 11 days. Previous to his injury Strahm had posted a 3.21 ERA at the end of May. His first start back from injury was decent, allowing four runs over seven innings vs. the Orioles: "The three starts (before Baltimore) wasn't me out there," Strahm said. "I felt good. I was attacking the zone and eliminated the walks." Strahm’s faced the Giants twice and given up three runs and two walks with 12 K’s spanning eight innings of work. Beede has allowed a whopping 42 hits and 28 walks in just 37 2/3’s frames of work this year. Yes Strahm has issues, but nothing like Beede’s problems. 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is just 9-17 this year vs. southpaws.

- San Diego is 13-8 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: The Padres come in hungry after getting spanked last night and they couldn’t have asked for a more favorable matchup. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, so lay this mid sized price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Braves/Mets.

Max Fried (9-3, 3.96 ERA) gets the call for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard (5-4, 4.55) gets the nod for the Mets. Atlanta’s taken the first two games of this series after rallying for a 5-4 win  last night. New York won’t be lacking for motivation either as it comes in on a seven-game losing streak. The Mets’ bullpen has been a disaster, as set-up man Seth Lugo has allowed seven runs over his last 3 1/3’s innings of work. Syndergaard is being thrown to the wolves here after a two week stint on the DL (just gave up three runs over five innings in Triple-A re-hab.) 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta has seen the total go over in 28 of 43 vs. teams with losing records.

- New York has seen the total go over the number in 26 of 42 this year vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: I expect Syndergaard to get the hook early and for the Mets bullpen to continue to get exposed. When you add it all up, the “over” is definitely the correct call here in my opinion! 

Ricky’s 9* play on the Milwaukee Brewers.

I had a play on the Brewers and yesterday and they prevailed 3-1. I expect a more lop-sided victory here today though. The home side hands the ball to Zach Davies (7-2, 3.34 ERA), while the visitors counter with Steven Brault (3-1, 4.50). Davies is just 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in June, but I like the veteran to settle down here in this favorable spot. Brault is 2-0 since joining the rotation, but I think he’ll take a step back here in this difficult road venue. 

Key Trends:

- Note that despite his recent “up-tick” in play, Brault is still only 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA in six starts vs. the Brewers.

The verdict: The Pirates had won seven of eight before yesterday’s loss and I think this sets up as a prime “letdown” spot. Milwaukee won’t be taking anything for granted here, and neither will Davies. I like the home side and Davies to build off yesterday’s victory. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres.

A couple of hot rookies square off in this one, making home field the deciding factor in this one in my opinion. Dakota Hudson (6-3, 3.36 ERA) of the Cards goes up against Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.18) of the Padres. 

Key Trends:

- The biggest stat/trend tonight is that Paddack has faced the Cardinals already once this year, holding them to one unearned run on one hit and four walks with four K’s over four innings. Hudson has never faced the Friars.

The verdict: I like Paddack at home and think we’re getting an unbelievable price on him tonight. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over A’s/Angels.

The Angels line-up is healthier than its ever been with Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons and Shohei Ohtani all now back in the line-up. That’s bad news for A’s starter Brett Andreson (7-5, 4.26 ERA) who is 3-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 14 games vs. the Angels. The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (7-6, 4.30) who has been shelled for eight runs spanning 8 2/3’s innings over two starts vs. the A’s this year.

Key Trends:

- Oakland has seen the total go over in 14 of 23 already this season after allowing two runs or less in its previous outing.

- LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of 11 in trying got revenge a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: I think these suspect starters get the hook early and as such, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Giants on the run line.

San Francisco beat the Diamondbacks 6-3 on Friday night and I think that home side offers great value to do it again here. That said, in the end I’ll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) has dominated the Giants throughout his career, but I think he’s overpriced here considering his recent form (has allowed 18 hits and nine runs over his last 13 innings of work). Drew Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79) gets the nod for the home side and while he’s struggled in the past for the Diamondbacks, he does enter off a season-best 11 strikeout performance. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is a terrible 1-8 (-8.8 units) this year off a loss to a division rival as a favorite.

- San Francisco is 13-12 (+4.9 units) in the month of June.

The verdict: In a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the home side on the run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under M’s/Astros.

The Astros won 2-1 in ten innings last night and I think that runs will be at a premium in this one as well. The Astros give the nod to ace Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.67 ERA), who broke his team’s seven game slide with a dominant effort over the Yanks last time out, holding them to three runs with nine K’s over seven innings. Verlander leads the AL in WHIP (0.75) and batting average allowed (.157) and he’s 13-9 with a 3.27 ERA in 27 career starts vs. the M’s. Seattle counters with southpaw Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 5.11), who comes in off a strong outing vs. Baltimore, allowing three runs with three K’s over six frames in the victory.

Key Trends:

- Seattle has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as an underdog of +200 or higher.

- Houston has seen the total go under in 14 of 22 this year vs. left-handed starters.

The verdict: I expect these competent hurlers to battle deep. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. 

I had a play on the Brewers last night and they’d unfortunately come up short. I think the home side bounces bak here though in this favorable matchup on the mound. Brandon Woodruff (9-2, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and his team has won 13 of the last 16 games that he’s appeared in. Woodruff is 6-1 in the past two months alone and he’s also hitting .324 at the plate in 37 at bats. Jordan Lyles (5-3, 3.64) gets the call for Milwaukee; he was 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his first nine starts this season. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is still just 2-5 (-2 units) this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

- Milwaukee is 25-7 (+17.8 units) in its last 32 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite.

The verdict: After winning seven of their past eight, all signs finally point to a letdown here in my opinion for the overachieving visiting side. And after losing eight of their last 11, I look for the Brewers to rally behind Woodruff for the victory on Saturday night; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Rockies.

Colorado won 13-9 as a sizeable underdog last night and it’s combined to score 134 runs with its opponents over the past six games at Coors Field. While offensive production has been plentiful of late in Denver, I think the stage is finally set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. LA goes with ace Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92). Kershaw is 10-4 with a 4.57 ERA and one shutout at Coors lifetime. In seven starts at home Gray is 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA vs. the Dodgers. 

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under in three of its last four after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games.

- Colorado has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after allowing nine or more runs in two straight games.

The verdict: I think these two veteran starters battle into the latter frames and I expect this total to sneak under this sky-high number once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Rockies run-line.

Colorado won 13-9 as a sizeable underdog last night and it’s combined to score 134 runs with its opponents over the past six games at Coors Field. While offensive production has been plentiful of late in Denver, I think the stage is finally set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. LA goes with ace Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92). Kershaw is 10-4 with a 4.57 ERA and one shutout at Coors lifetime. In seven starts at home Gray is 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA vs. the Dodgers. 

Key Trends:

- LA is interestingly just 2-3 (-2.6 units) this year after nine straight games vs. division rivals.

- Colorado is 16-9 (+10 units) this year after three straight vs. a division rival.

The verdict: I think these veteran starters are a “wash,” and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. That said, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, just to be safe!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers won’t be taking the Pirates for granted here. Milwaukee is 43-38 and second place in the division, but Pittsburgh is 38-41 in fourth, just five games back. Milwaukee is also just 5-10 since sweeping the Pirates here three weeks ago. Pittsburgh’s 8-7 since then, including a highly satisfying 10-0 victory at Houston just last night. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Pirates send Chris Archer (3-6, 5.56 ERA) to the hill, while the home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.88). These starters are a “wash,” but the difference comes in the stats/trends.

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is still just 15-25 vs. teams with winning records this year.

- Milwaukee is still 20-12 vs. the division.

The verdict: It’s a classic “letdown” spot for Pittsburgh after its lop-sided win last night and I expect the Brewers to make the most of it. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles.

The Indians’ go with Mike Clevinger (1-1, 2.70 ERA) tonight and he returns from the IL after missing a start with a sprained ankle, after just coming back from a back issue which had him benched for more than two months. The home side goes with John Means (6-4, 2.67) who also missed his last turn in the rotation as a cautionary measure because of a tender shoulder. 

Key Trend:

- Cleveland is just 6-7 (-4 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I think the door is open for the hungry home side to steal the opener of this four game series as Clevinger’s injury issues are a major concern. I like Means to take advantage of this situation. A great spot bet on Baltimore Friday night!

Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels.

Both teams come in hot after sweeping two game interleague series from their respective opponents. Tanner Anderson (0-2, 4.20 ERA) though is in over his head here in my opinion in this difficult road venue. Anderson gave up three runs over four innings in a 5-3 loss to the Rays on Friday, while Angels’ starter Griffin Canning (2-4, 3.88) will face the A’s for a third time this month. He’s had one good start and one poor one vs. them so far, but I think the rookie takes advantage of familiar surroundings tonight. 

Key Trends:

- Oakland is already just 9-12 (-4.6 units) after a win by two runs or less.

- LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season.

The verdict: Expect Canning to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on LA!

Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Dodgers.

Despite Coors Field being the great equalizer for pitchers, I still think that the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price on the road favorite. The visitors go with Walker Buehler (8-1, 2.96 ERA), while the home side counters with Peter Lambert (2-0, 5.85). Buehler has dominated this matchup throughout his career, going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 appearances vs. the Rockies. Lambert allowed three runs over five innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. 

Key Trends:

- LA is 18-5 (+7.6 units) as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range this season.

- Colorado is 4-10 (-4.9 units) in its last 14 as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: I like Buehler to continue his domination in this favorable matchup; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Nationals/Marlins.

Stephen Strasburg (8-4, 3.79 ERA) has dominated the Marlins throughout his career. Miami has been shutdown at the plate over the first two games of this series, so it won’t be lacking for motivation as it tries to break the slide. It won’t be easy for the home side though with Sandy Alcantara (4-5, 3.51 ERA) on the mound, as he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 9.00 ERA in three starts vs. the Nationals. 

Key Trends:

- The Nationals have seen the total go over in 11 of 15 already this season after two or more consecutive wins.

- The Marlins have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge two straight home losses vs. an opponent. 

The verdict: I think the stage is set for an explosive finish to this series; play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Rangers/Tigers.

These teams played to a lower-scoring under yesterday, but I think the stage is set for more of a slug-fest in the finale. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’e now lost six straight after falling 4-1 to the Rangers yesterday. The home side hands the ball to Spencer Turnbull (3-7, 3.29 ERA), who is a poor 0-5 with a 4.89 ERA in nine starts in Detroit this year. The visitors counter with Ariel Jurado (4-3, 4.44), who has been shelled for 11 runs over his last nine innings of work, spanning two starts. 

Key Trends:

- Texas has seen the total go over in 16 of its last 24 “day” games.

- Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 at home as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: A couple of confirmed “gas cans” going head to head, everything point to a slug-fest in the finale. Play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

I had a play on the Phillies last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets hand the ball to Zach Wheeler (6-5, 4.69 ERA), while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.55). Philadelphia now has a chance to sweep this four game series after erasing a 4-0 deficit to win late last night. Nola has been hit or miss this year, but he comes in with momentum and confidence as well after posting ten K’s and giving up two runs over eight innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to the Fish last time out. Wheeler comes in off a decent outing as well vs. the Cubs, allowing one run over seven innings, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Key Trends:

- New York is now just 2-14 (-11 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Philadelphia is now 18-8 (+6.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

The verdict: I like Nola over Wheeler here; all things considered a very fair price on a very hot home team. Lay it!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Rangers/Tigers.

The home side turns to ace Matt Boyd (5-5, 3.61 ERA), who looks to bounce back after giving up three home runs in a loss to the Indians on Friday. Boyd though posted six K’s and he’s now recorded at least six in each of his past seven starts. The rangers look to build off yesterday’s 5-3 win by handing the ball to Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52) who is a sharp 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA on the road this year (Minor’s won back-to-back starts and has a tiny 1.93 ERA over his past four outings.) 

Key Trends:

- The Rangers have seen the total go under the number in 18 of 23 already this season after two or more consecutive victories.

- The Tigers have seen the total dip under in 25 of their last 40 following a loss.

The verdict: I think these hungry starters battle deep; all signs point to the under as the savvy call in this one!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia has won the first two games of this four game series and with a chance to clinch it tonight, I look for the hungry home side to deliver a third straight victory. Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and while he was rocked by the Nationals’ in his last start, he’s still 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts since rejoining the rotation. The Phillies have hit eight home runs over the last two games, which doesn’t bode well for Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.75) and the Mets’ bullpen, which has posted an atrocious 7.44 ERA in the month of June. Vargas comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing four runs over four innings. 

Key Trends:

- New York is now a terrible 2-13 (-10 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Philadelphia is now 17-8 this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to carry over on Wednesday night; lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Rockies/Giants.

Colorado won 2-0 on Monday and San Francisco won 4-2 on Tuesday. Runs have so far been hard to come by in this series, but I think the finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The hungry Rockies hand the ball to German Marquez (7-3, 4.32 ERA), while the hungry Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija (4-6, 4.23). Marquez is 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in six starts vs. the Giants, while Samrdzija is 5-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 18 games vs. the Rockies.

Key Trends:

- Colorado has seen the total go over in 18 of its last 28 vs. the division.

- The Rockies have seen the total soar over in 15 of 25 “day” games this season.

- San Francisco has seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 31 at home.

The verdict: I think these hungry teams combine to push this total over this tiny number; play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels.

The Reds enter this two-game interleague series having lost two straight, while the Angels return home off a 6-5 road trip. LA hands the ball to Andrew Heaney (0-1, 5.68 ERA), who missed the first two months of the year. The struggling visitors go with Tyler Mahle (2-7, 4.17) who has been hit or miss this season, especially on the road where he’s 0-6 with a 5.01 ERA.

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is interestingly just 1-5 (-4.3 units) this season after two consecutive losses by two runs or less to a division rival.

- LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season.

The verdict: No real advantage on the mound, but the Angels’ benefit from the home field; lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

The Rays Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) won the Cy Young award last year, but he’s been terrible this season. The home side hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18). Both teams had Monday off and each enters hungry for victories after scuffling stretches. Both starters were hit hard in their last outings and each has struggled against their respective opponent in the past. The difference comes in the numbers/trends today.

Key Trends:

- Tampa Bay is just 14-16 (-4.7 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records.

- Minnesota is 29-17 (+11.1 units) in night games this year.

- The Twins are 11-7 (+3.1 units) vs. southpaws this season.

The verdict: Snell’s been a disaster this season. I absolutely believe that Gibson at home is the correct call in this matchup. All things considered, this is a great price!

Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians.

After a rain delay last night the Indians bounced back to take the series opener with the lowly Royals and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in this favorable matchup on the mound. I had a play on the Tribe in that one, part of my 6-1 Monday card. Cleveland has gone 15-6 in June thus far and it hands the ball to Shane Bieber (6-3, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs with eight K’s over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Thursday. The visitors go with Glenn Sparkman (2-3, 3.62) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Thursday. 

Key Trends:

- Note though that the Royals are a terrible 6-13 this season as a road dog of +150 or higher. 

- Additionally note that Cleveland is 8-2 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher.

The verdict: Sparkman’s been decent, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time vs. the surging Indians. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Tigers.

The Rangers send veteran Jesse Chavez (2-2, 3.18 ERA) to the hill and he’s been efficient of late, posting a tiny 0.58 ERA over his past 21 appearances. Chavez faces a terrible Tigers team which has gone 8-27 since May 12th. The home side goes with Jordan Zimmermann (0-4, 6.03) who makes his second start since returning from injury. Zimmermann comes in with confidence here though as he’s 1-1 with a sharp 2.25 ERA in two career outings vs. the Rangers.

Key Trends:

- Texas has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 19 this season as a -110 favorite or higher.

- Detroit has seen the total go under in 13 of 20 this year following a loss by four runs or more.

The verdict: Chavez and Zimmermann battle deep and this one sneaks under the posted number; play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies blew out the Mets yesterday and I like the home side to duplicate the effort with another blowout performance here as well. Philadelphia won’t be taking anything for granted here after having previously lost seven in a row. The home side goes with Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.12 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings vs. the Nationals on Wednesday. The visitors counter with Will Lockett, who was called up from Triple A to replace the injured Noah Syndergaard (Lockett gave up five runs off six hits over two innings in a loss to the Cubs.) 

Key Trends:

- New York now just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

- Philadelphia is now 16-8 (+4.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I like Arrieta to easily out duel his over-matched counterpart and I look for the Phillies to build off yesterday’s break out performance at the plate. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies.

Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) gets the call for the Rockies and he’ll have a big opportunity to pad his win/loss record here vs. Giants’ volatile starter Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09). Pomeranz has allowed four or more runs in five of his last ten starts, including seven in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado has struggled vs. Pomeranz in the past, but that was then and this is now. Colorado comes in focused on the task at hand after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado is 15-5 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

- San Fran is just 4-6 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The verdict: I like Gray to easily out duel the “gas can” Pomeranz. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 6* play on the D-Backs on the run-line.

Yes, Zach Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA) has struggled vs. his former team, but he comes in on top form and I expect him to give Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85) everything he can handle. The Diamondbacks are three games under .500, while the Dodgers are 26 games over the .500 mark. Clearly Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Greinke. 

Key Trends:

- Arizona is 9-4 (+5.2 units) this year after a win by two runs or less.

- The Diamondbacks are a money-making 19-15 (+5.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the run line!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs are the “hungrier” team here after dropping eight of their last 13. Atlanta comes in complacent after winning 13 of its last 16, including overcoming a four-run deficit to win 4-3 in ten-innings vs. the Nationals on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) and Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13) are a “wash,” I simply feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Braves, while the Cubs clearly can’t take anything for granted after their scuffling stretch. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta is just 7-9 this year as a road underdog.

- Chicago is 23-12 as a home favorite this season. 

The verdict: All things considered a great price on the hungry home side. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox.

Lucas Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) has been a bright spot for the White Sox this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Red Sox, who just lost two of three to the lowly Jays, counter with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (8-4. 4.71). Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime match ups vs. Chicago, while Giolito is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago is just 6-9 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Boston is 9-4 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this year.

The verdict: After their shoddy and disinterested performance vs. Toronto over the weekend, I expect the Red Sox to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

After a slow start to the 2019 campaign, the Tribe is rolling and I expect that momentum to carry over here in the opener of this three-game series. Cleveland is now seven games over .500 after posting a three-game sweep in two of its past three series. Cleveland won’t be taking anything for granted here either after KC posted a three-game sweep back on April 12th-14th. And that’s bade news for struggling Royals’ starter Brad Keller (3-9, 4.45 ERA), who is 0-4 over his past five starts, most recently getting shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the M’s on Wednesday. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.55), who gave up two runs in a no-decision to the Rangers on Wednesday. 

Key Trends:

- Kansas City is just 10-24 as a road dog this season.

- The Royals are only 18-36 vs. right-handed starters this year.

- Cleveland is 10-5 at home this year as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range.

The verdict: I expect the home side to continue its hot run this favorable match up. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Jays/Yanks.

Aaron Sanchez (3-9, 5.49 ERA) has struggled this year and since he’s returned from injury overall. He’s also struggled vs. the Yankees throughout his career. CC Sabathia (4-4, 4.14) though has had plenty of success vs. Toronto lifetime, going 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 match ups (Sabathia earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. Tampa on Wednesday.) The Jays took two of three from Boston over the weekend and look primed for a predictable letdown at the plate here in my opinion (note that slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0 for 5 on Sunday and he’s hitting only .246 with 20 RBI’s over his first 48 games.) 

Key Trends:

- Toronto has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 vs. southpaws.

- NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 this year as a home favorite of -150 or higher.

The verdict: I think Toronto takes a predictable step back offensively after its big series in Boston. This number is a little high, play the under! 

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Phillies.

Both Steven Matz (5-5, 4.28 ERA) and Zach Eflin (6-7, 2.83) have looked brilliant at times this year and pedestrian in others. Both the Mets and Phillies are in desperate need of victories and I think these teams will chase these suspect starters early. Philadelphia enters off a three game series loss vs. the lowly Marlins, while the Mets are just 37-41 after splitting a four-game series over the weekend with the Cubs, including a 5-3 loss yesterday. Eflin lost his second straight start last Wednesday, giving up three runs over six frames to the Nats. Matz also lost last Wednesday, getting shelled for five runs over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Braves. 

Key Trends:

- Eflin is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Mets.

- Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in seven starts vs. the Phillies.

The verdict: The situation points to a “slug-fest” in the opener of this important series in my opinion, play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/Dodgers.

The Rockies go with Antonio Senzatela (6-5, 5.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.87.) LA has taken the first two games of this series. The Dodgers are now 5-0 in the season series vs. Colorado. Maeda has struggled a bit of late, but a date vs. the Rockies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that he’s 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 16 outings vs. them. Senzatela enters on top form, giving up one run over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks in his last trip to the hill.

Key Trends:

- Colorado has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a road dog of +150 or higher.

- LA has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 as a -200 favorite or higher.

The verdict: I think these starters battle into the latter frames; this number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

After dropping the first two games of this series, I like the Cubs to respond in the finale. The Mets go with Jacob deGrom (4-6, 3.26 ERA), while the home side counters with Cole Hamels (6-2, 2.85.) deGrom is an unremarkable 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in seven career starts vs. Chicago, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts at Wrigley Field. Chicago is still 26-14 at home this season. Hamels gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the White Sox most recently.

Key Trends:

- New York is just 12-20 (-11.9 units) in its last 32 after scoring nine or more runs.

- Chicago is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: I expect the hungry home side to come out aggressive and for deGrom’s struggles at Wrigley to continue. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Houston Astros.

All good things must come to an end. The Yanks have won eight straight and I think they’ll finally take a step back here vs. the desperate Astros, who enter the finale of this four-game series on the other end of the spectrum after seven straight losses. The home side is complacent and the visitors are definitely hungry. I give a big nod to Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) over JA Happ (7-3, 4.59) as well. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in last six vs. the Yankees. Happ is 5-2 with a 3.46 ERA in nine career starts vs. Houston. 

Key Trends:

- Houston is 16-6 (+6.7 units) this season vs. southpaws.

The verdict: It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Happ or the Yankees right now, I just think that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here vs. Verlander and this desperate Astros team. All things considered, a great price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres.

I like the Padres to salvage the finale of this three-game series after dropping the first two. The Friars had won four straight before heading into this series and I think the Pirates have a predictable letdown here. The visitors turn to Joey Lucchesi (6-4, 3.74 ERA) to break the slide and he’ll be opposed by Steven Brault (3-1, 4.40.) Lucchesi enters on top form, having gone at least six innings in five of his past six starts (most recently went seven shutout innings in a 2-0 win over the Brewers.) Lucchesi is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two career outings vs. Pittsburgh. Brault has a 1.25 ERA over his past four starts, but note that he owns a poor 5.68 ERA in four career relief appearances vs. San Diego.  

Key Trends:

- The Padres are still a profitable 16-11 (+6 units) in all “day” games this year.

- The Pirates are just 7-11 vs. southpaws this season.

The verdict: San Diego comes in focused and hungry. Pittsburgh comes in flat and content. This one has “blowout” written all over it, so lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Jays/Red Sox.

Boston came from behind to win Game 1 of this series and then Toronto returned the favor in last night’s come from behind 6-5 victory. While the first two games have produced a copious amount of offense, I think the finale sets up as more of a lower-scoring “duel.” The Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (4-9, 3.23 ERA) who already has a victory over the Red Sox this year, holding them to one run with four K’s over six frames at home back on May 21st (Stroman is 5-3 with a respectable 3.70 ERA lifetime vs. Boston.) The home side counters with Rick Porcello (5-6, 4.31) who went seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Monday. Note that Porcello has a 3.31 ERA over his last 11 starts. 

Key Trends:

- Toronto has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 14 as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Boston has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 25 when the total in the game is set at either 9 or 9.5. 

The verdict: Expect the finale of this series to dominated by these hungry starting pitchers. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Texas Rangers.

I think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price, as I’m expecting a decisive beatdown from start to finish in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2, 8.71 ERA), while the Rangers go with Lance Lynn (8-4, 4.16.) Lynn is 6-2 with a 3.17 ERA over his last ten starts, most recently allowing one run with nine K’s and zero walks over seven innings in a win over the Tribe on Monday. Note as well that in seven career outings vs. Chicago he’s 3-1 with a tiny 2.49 ERA. The Rangers will be out to avenge last night’s 5-4, ten inning loss as well. Despaigne most recently allowed seven runs over four innings in a loss to the Yankees. 

Key Trends:

- The White Sox just 4-7 this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range.

- The Rangers are 11-5 as a home favorite.

The verdict: Look for Lynn to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Rockies/Dodgers.

Clearly this pick isn’t based up on the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-1, 1.26 ERA), who is 6-0 with a 0.87 ERA over his last seven starts (it’s interesting to note though that Ryu is just 4-6 with a 4.97 ERA in ten starts vs. the Rockies lifetime.) I think that Rockies’ rookie right-hander Peter Lambert (2-0, 6.00) though will struggle in this difficult road venue. This is just Lambert’s fourth career start. 

Key Trends:

- The Rockies have seen the total go over the number in 17 of 28 vs. the division already this season.

- The Dodgers have seen the total fly over the number in 16 of their last 26 vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: Look for this one to sneak over this tiny number; play the over!

Ricky’s 9* play on the under Orioles/Mariners.

Whoever the Mariners open with in the first inning (Gerson Bautista most likely), they’ll then quickly make way for Tommy Milone (1-1, 3.03 ERA), while the visitors go with Andrew Cashner (6-3, 4.48.) The Mariners came from behind to win 10-9 last night, but I expect a much lower-scoring “duel” on Saturday afternoon. The Orioles were without leading hitter Trey Mancini in yesterday’s loss and his continued absence is going to be felt here in my opinion. Note as well that Milone is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA in six appearances vs. the Orioles, while Cashner has a 4.01 ERA vs. the Mariners over 11 lifetime appearances. 

Key Trends:

- Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 21 after playing three or more consecutive road games.

The verdict: After last night’s “slug-fest,” expect this one to stay well under once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres.

The Padres have lost four straight in this series after last night’s series opening 2-1 loss. Enough is enough! I like the Friars to finally bounce back here and find a way to get the job done on Saturday afternoon. The Padres turn to Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.15 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Archer (3-6, 5.85). Since coming off the IL in May Archer has gone a terrible 2-4 with a 6.93 ERA over seven starts (note that Archer has been clobbered for 15 homers over his past nine trips to the hill.) Paddack has cooled off considerably since his hot start to the 2019 campaign, but I still give him the nod over his “gas can” counterpart. 

Key Trends:

- Note that SD is 15-9 (+7 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous outing

- Pittsburgh is just 8-13 (-2.3 units) after scoring two runs or less. Look for the revenge minded visiting side to get the job done here.

The verdict: I look for the revenge minded visiting side to stop the slide in this series; all things considered, this is a great price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

The Mets came from behind to steal last night’s game, but I think the home side will bounce back on Saturday afternoon. New York’s Zach Wheeler (5-5, 4.94 ERA) goes up against Chicago’s Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.87). Wheeler enters having lost two straight, most recently getting shelled for five runs over six innings vs. the Braves (note that Wheeler has now allowed 14 runs in that span.) Quintana is 0-5 with a 4.30 ERA since his last victory in early May, but he looked decent in his last outing vs. the high-powered Dodgers, allowing two runs over six innings. Finally note that Wheeler is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, while Quintana is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets. 

Key Trends:

- New York is just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Chicago is 12-2 (+10 units) this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: I love Quintana to out duel his clearly struggling counterpart here and I look for the Cubs to answer after yesterday’s setback. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Veteran hurler Mike Leake. The M’s veteran is 6-6 with a 4.14 ERA this year, but he enters on top form having posted four straight quality starts, with three victories in that span. Leake is auditioning for a future new team, as he’ll be moved before the trade deadline. Whoever the Orioles start today, Leake is my “key angle” for this particular contest. 

Key Trends:

- Baltimore is just 12-25 on the road.

- Seattle is still 86-66 the L2 years in all games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: Look for Leake to continue his progression with another big performance in front of the home town crowd. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Kansas City Royals.

Yes the Twins have been a big surprise this year, but the Royals won’t be rolling over here after last night’s 4-1 win. I think the home side now carries that momentum/confidence over into this one. The Twins’ Martin Perez (7-3, 4.09 ERA) has had success vs. the Royals in the past, but he enters having gone four straight starts without a victory. The home side counters with Jakob Junis (4-6, 5.33) and he’ll be looking to keep the good times rolling for KC, which enters having won four of its last five, including two in a row over Minnesota, which has lost four of its last five. 

The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions now and I look for those trends to continue on Friday night. Play on the Royals!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Giants/Dodgers.

Madison Bumgarner (3-6, 3.87 ERA) gets ready to square off against Jose Urias (3-2, 3.05) at Chavez Ravine on Thursday night and in my opinion, this total is a little low. Bumgarner is expected to be shipped out from San Fran finally by the end of July; note that he’s just 2-4 with a 4.85 ERA in all “night” games this year. Urias makes a spot start in place of Walker Buehler; Urias has a 1.76 ERA on the road and a 4.01 ERA at home this season.

Key Trends:

- San Francisco has seen the total go over in nine of its last 12 as an underdog of +150 or higher.

- LA has seen the total soar over in seven of nine this year when the total in the contest is set at 7 or less.

The verdict: The Giants won’t be going down without a fight here; look for this one to eclipse the posted number, sooner rather than later!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Oakland A’s.

The Rays have lost seven of nine and despite sending Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.37 ERA) to the hill, I believe their slide continues here vs. talented A’s starter Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.85.) Note that Oakland has won six of its last eight. Morton’s 21-game unbeaten streak is now history as well after falling 5-3 to the Angels last Saturday. Montas comes in on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.77 ERA over his past eight starts. 

Key Trends:

- Tampa is just 4-6 in its last ten after a loss by eight runs or more.

- Oakland is 11-6 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: I think Morton takes another step back here; all things considered a great price on the hungry home side!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins’ Jake Odorizzi (10-2, 2.24 ERA) is on fire this year and I think he carries that positive momentum over into this favorable road matchup. Glenn Sparkman (1-3, 4.01) gets the nod for the Royals. The Twins though have won 11 consecutive games started by Odorrizzi and while he’s struggled against the Royals in the past, clearly that was then and this is now. Sparkman is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five career outings vs. the Twins. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 12-2 this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher.

- Kansas City is just 8-16 as a home underdog this season.

The verdict: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I think that this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers.

I played on the Reds yesterday in their upset win at home over the Astros. I also played against Milwaukee in its upset loss to the Padres. I believe the Reds though, who have now won four straight, will take a step back here vs. this suddenly desperate Brewers team which has lost three straight and four of its last five. Tanner Roark (4-6, 3.63 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA over his past three outings. The hungry home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 10.29), who makes his third start of the year. These pitchers are a “wash,” but I feel the difference comes in the number/trends as well.

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is still just 7-15 this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Milwaukee is still 13-7 at home this year as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range.

The verdict: I think the “hungry” home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay it!

Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels.

With a chance to sweep this four-game series, I look for the streaking Angels to lay the hammer down here. The visitors go with Jose Suarez (2-1, 4.50 ERA), while the home side goes with Clayton Richard (0-3, 7.52). Mike Trout had two home runs in yesterday’s 11-6 victory and he now has 11 over his last 19 games (Trout has a career .631 slugging average at the Rogers Centre.) 

The verdict: I think Suarez, who earned a win on the road in Tampa last time out, is the correct call in this matchup. Richard has been a complete “gas can,” which clearly doesn’t bode well facing the red hot Trout and company. I’m banking on another blowout, lay the price with confidence!

Ricky’s 10* play on the San Francisco Giants.

I had a play on the Dodgers on the “run line” last night, but I think the Giants and Drew Pomeranz offer great value at this price to steal this one. Pomeranz (2-6, 6.43 ERA) faced the Dodgers on June 7th and he went five scoreless, holding them to just three hits. San Francisco went on to win that game 2-1. He’ll be opposed by LA’s Rich Hill (4-1, 2.60) who gave up three runs off seven hits in a 5-3 win over the Cubs last Friday. 

Key Trends:

- LA may have a whopping 16.5 game lead over San Francisco in the NL West standings, but note that the Dodgers are just 6-5 in this season series thus far. 

The verdict: I think Pomeranz continues his steady overall progression with another strong performance vs. LA; play on the Giants!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Mariners.

Brad Keller (3-8, 3.97 ERA) of the Royals squares off against Marco Gonzales (7-6, 4.50) of the Mariners to open this one. Kansas City has taken the first two games of this three game series. KC won the opener 6-4 and then 9-0 last night. Keller just went seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Friday (over his last three starts spanning 22 innings he’s posted a tiny 2.04 ERA.) Gonzales comes in on top form as well, having won two straight after losing six in a row.

Key Trends:

- KC has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 15 already this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range.

- Seattle has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven when trying to revenge two straight home losses vs. an opponent.

The verdict: The Mariners’ offense doesn’t catch a break here facing the red hot Keller. I also expect Gonzales to carry over his recent performance. This one has “duel” written al over it, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays.

I think Blake Snell (4-5, 3.70 ERA) will help the Rays avoid the three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. New York won the first game 3-0, and then Tuesday’s contest 6-3. Tampa won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s lost six of its last eight. Snell is just 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA over his past seven starts, but note that he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of those outings. New York goes with CC Sabathia (3-4, 4.42) who is 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA since his last victory in mid May. 

Key Trends:

- Tampa is 14-7 as a -125 or higher road favorite this season already.

- The Yanks are a sub-par 7-9 (-6.4 units) vs. southpaws this year.

The verdict: Look for the hungry Rays to jump on Sabathia early and expect Snell to go deep. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers run-line.

I think LA bounces back big after yesterday’s upset loss. Tyler Beede looked good for San Francisco, but I don’t think that Shaun Anderson (2-1, 3.97 ERA) will fair as well today. Anderson has been decent no doubt, most recently holding the Friars to two runs over six innings on June 12th. Anderson’s been good, but Dodgers’ veteran Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 3.13) has been great this year; note that he’s gone at least six innings in every start this year and at least seven in five of 11 (note as well that Kershaw is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA in 3330 1/3’s innings vs. San Fran lifetime.) 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is just 8-13 vs. southpaws this season.

- LA is 24-6 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season.

- The Dodgers are 9-2 this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick em price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/D-Backs.

It’s interesting to note that Arizona is the only team in the majors with an above .500 record, but with a losing record at home (14-16.) The D-Backs kick-off a nine-game home stand tonight. Colorado is 5-2 so far in the season series, but this is the first time the teams will have met in Phoenix. The Rockies just combined for 92 runs in a four-game series with the Padres and I think that the shift in venue will lead to a letdown in production at the plate. The home side goes with Merrill Kelly (7-6, 3.73 ERA) on the mound tonight and he enters on fire, having allowed two runs over his past three starts spanning 22 1/3’s innings of work. The visitors go with Antonio Senzatela (5-5, 5.48), who faced the D-Backs on May 28th and would give up two runs over six innings. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Arizona has seen the total dip under in seven of ten at home already this season when the total is either 9 or 9.5. 

The verdict: After their historic run production over the weekend, I think Colorado’s bats “cool off” in this difficult matchup. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Marlins/Cards.

Marlins rookie Jordan Yamamoto (1-0, 0.00 ERA) made his MLB debut at home vs. the Cards last week and he’d strike out five and go seven scoreless. I think there’s only one way Yamamoto’s performance can go in his second start though and I believe the rookie will indeed struggle in this difficult road venue. The home side sees Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.28) toe the slab; he most recently was shelled for four runs over five innings vs. the Mets on Thursday. 

Key Trends:

- Miami has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range.

- St. Louis has seen the total soar over in eight of 13 this season after allowing three runs or less in two straight.

The verdict: The book is still out on Yamamoto and I have a hard time seeing the rookie duplicating his debut performance. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Red Sox/Twins.

Two veteran hurlers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one on Tuesday and everything points to a classic “duel” in my opinion. The visitors go with their best pitcher in David Price (4-2, 3.52 ERA), while the home side goes with Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.04). Minnesota was actually shut out for the first time this season in last night’s 2-0 loss (snapping a 14-game home win streak.) Note as well that Price is 10-4 with a minuscule 2.62 ERA in 18 career games vs. the Twins. Pineda owns a 4.13 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Boston. Pineda has been much better of late and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer over six straight starts. 

Key Trends:

- Boston has seen the total go under in six of seven as a road dog this season already.

- Minnesota has seen the total dip under in five of six already this season at home when the total is set at either 10 or 10.5.

The verdict: The writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

Two pitchers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one Tuesday night. Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.38 ERA) gets the nod for the Mets and he’ll be opposed by the Braves’ Julio Teheran (5-4, 2.92). deGrom has a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts and over 116 career innings vs. the Braves he has a minuscule 1.86 ERA. Teheran has had success vs. the Mets in the past and he’s in fine form currently, but the numbers point to a letdown here for the surging home side. 

Key Trends:

- The Mets are 11-4 (+6.6 units) already this year after having lost five or six of their last seven games.

- The Braves are 5-8 in their last 13 off a win by eight runs or more vs. a division rival.

The verdict: I think the “hungrier” team rallies behind its ace. Great value on deGrom and the Mets on Tuesday night!

Ricky’s 9* play on the Cincinnati Reds.

This is an interesting interleague series and an interesting head-to-head matchup on the mound in the opener. The Astros’ Wade Miley (6-3, 3.14 ERA) will be opposed by the Reds’ Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.20). Houston has been getting production at the plate of late despite key injuries to its line-up. Miley has been “on point” of late as well, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Orioles on Monday. The Reds won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing six of their last nine. Cincinnati though has hope with Castillo on the hill; he most recently allowed one run over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Indians. 

The verdict: I’m throwing the trends out the window on this play. I think Miley is going to struggle in this NL format and I believe Castillo takes advantage of this Astros line-up that’s over-achieving at the plate. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Reds!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Astros/Reds.

This is an interesting interleague series and an interesting head-to-head matchup on the mound in the opener. The Astros’ Wade Miley (6-3, 3.14 ERA) will be opposed by the Reds’ Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.20). Houston has been getting production at the plate of late despite key injuries to its line-up. Miley has been “on point” of late as well, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Orioles on Monday. The Reds won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing six of their last nine. Cincinnati though has hope with Castillo on the hill; he most recently allowed one run over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Indians. 

Key Trends:

- Houston has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven interleague road games as an underdog in the -105 to -145 range.

- The Reds have seen the total dip below the posted number in five of their last seven at home as a favorite in the -105 to -150 range. 

The verdict: I think Miley and Castillo will fight deep into the latter frames and as a result, I look for this total to stay well under once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs.

Clearly that’s not many negative things you can say about Hyun Jin Ryu. Ryu (9-1, 1.60 ERA) has arguably been the best pitcher in the World over the last year and a half. I simply think that Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.89) is going to be able to match patch for him inning for inning. And in my opinion, that swings the value in favor of the hungry underdog, which I expect to build off last night’s come from behind victory.

The verdict: All good things must come to an end. I think that the Cubs offer great value to steal this Sunday nighter. Play on Chicago!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Giants have won four straight and they’re 5-2 on their current home stand following last night’s come from behind 8-7 win in which they uncharacteristically belted out 15 hits. Can anyone say letdown spot? I think the Giants do indeed come back down to Earth here facing the Brewers’ Chase Anderson (3-1, 3.80 ERA). Note that Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts at San Francisco as well. The home side counters with Jeff Samardizja (3-5, 3.72) who is just 1-4 over his last five starts. Note that The Shark is only 3-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 26 career appearances vs. Milwaukee.

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is still 16-8 (+7.6 units) this year in all day games.

- San Francisco is just 11-18 (-5.4 units) this season in all day contests.

The verdict: I like the hard-hitting Brewers to bounce back and I expect the Giants to suffer a predictable letdown. Lay the price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies.

This is the finale of a four-game series. Both teams go with rookie pitchers tonight. The home side goes with Peter Lambert (2-0, 1.50 ERA), while the visitors go with Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.02). Colorado bounced back from a 16-12 loss on Friday, for a convincing 14-8 win yesterday and I believe this is a matchup which favors the home side. Lambert has looked sharp in a starters role, facing the Cubs twice and holding them to one run over seven innings in the first matchup and then one run over five frames on Tuesday. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is still just 6-13 (-3.7 units) this season as an underdog on the +125 to +175 range.

- The Rockies are 19-7 (+10.1 units) this year as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 

The verdict: I think Margevicius struggles in this difficult road venue. All things considered, a great price on the home side. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. 

St. Louis has taken two of three, but the Mets bounce back in yesterday’s 8-7 win. I like St. Louis to bounce back in the finale though and secure the series. The visitors go with Dakota Hudson (5-3, 3.47 ERA), while the home side counters with Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.68). Both pitchers have been sharp of late, but note that the over-achieving Vargas is just 1-2 with a 4.99 ERA in six career appearances vs. St. Louis, while Hudson won his lone start vs. the Mets on April 21st, allowing three runs over six innings. 

Key Trends:

- St. Louis is a fantastic 8-2 (+5.8 units) still this season on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range.

- The Mets are just 10-13 (-4.2 units) in all “day” games this year.

The verdict: I think Vargas takes a step back against an opponent he’s had plenty of difficulties with in the past. Lay the short price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins.

After breaking their seven-game losing streak with an 11-0 win on Friday, the Pirates predictably came back down to Earth on Saturday and fell 4-3. I think the Marlins now find a way to get the job done in the series finale. Chris Archer (3-6, 5.73 ERA) gets the nod for the Bucs, while the Fish hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (3-6, 3.67). Archer has been terrible on the road, going 0-3 with an 8.71 ERA in four starts. Alcantara is 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts and 2-4 with a 3.25 ERA in seven starts at home. 

The verdict: Archer’s been terrible on the road and it’s hard to imagine him suddenly “flipping a switch” here. Alcantara on the other hand has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate. All things considered, I believe this is fantastic line value on the superior pitcher. Play on the Fish!

Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Great spot bet. Great value. All on Philadelphia, as Atlanta is making Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59 ERA) make his first start since April 13th. This is a major factor working in favor of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58) who is 8-3 with a 2.05 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Atlanta. 

Key Trends:

- The Phillies are 9-1 (+7.5 units) this year after allowing nine or more runs.

- The Braves are just 5-7 (-3.7 units) this season after allowing eight or more runs. 

The verdict: In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Phillies!

Ricky’s 10* play on the over Brewers/Giants.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Suspect starting pitching. The Brewers hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 12.00 ERA), while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner (3-6, 3.83). Nelson gave up five runs off four hits over three innings in a home loss to Miami in his lone start this year. Nelson is a poor 2-2 with a ballooned 5.28 ERA in five career outings vs. SF (Nelson has a shot at a victory today though based entirely upon his team’s offense though, which puts up 5.09 RPG.) Bumgarner is an unremarkable 1-2 with a 4.01 ERA in seven starts at home this year. 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee has seen the total go over in three of four already this year in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent when it was a favorite.

- San Francisco has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 14 after a win by two runs or less.

The verdict: I’m expecting these veteran hurlers to get the hook early and I believe that will help result in pushing this total well above the posted number!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Brewers.

Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 7.16 ERA) comes in off an admittedly great start, going five scoreless in a victory over the Dodgers (going head-to-head with Kershaw!) But Pomeranz owns a terrible 8.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Brewers. Zack Davies (7-0, 2.41) comes in off a no-decision, but he owns a sharp 1.64 ERA vs. the Giants over two career starts. 

Key Trends: 

- Milwaukee is 17-9 vs. teams with losing records this year.

- San Francisco is only 9-14 as a home dog this season.

The verdict: The Brewers lead the NL in dingers, while the Giants are dead last in that category. All things considered, I feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Dodgers.

Two red hot veteran hurlers collide on Friday night and I think that runs will be hard to come by in this one. The Cubs go with Kyle Hendricks (7-4, 3.00 ERA), while the home side goes with Rich Hill (3-1, 2.40). Chicago lost 7-4 in last night’s opener, but this one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Hendricks though enters on top form, having gone 3-0 over his last three starts, while posting a tiny 1.99 ERA over his last eight trips to the hill. Hill hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last five starts. 

Key Trends:

- Chicago has seen the total go under in four of five after a loss by four runs or more.

- LA has seen the total dip under in 24 of its last 39 following a victory.

The verdict: Look for these two red hot pitchers to battle deep and for this total to fall under once it’s all said and done!

Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays.

I think the home side is over-priced here considering the injury list to its sluggers (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, George Springer and Max Stassi all out for the Astros.) The home side goes with Gerrit Cole (5-5, 3.72 ERA) who has been sharp overall this year, but who I believe is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The visitors counter with Aaron Sanchez (3-7, 4.25), who is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in five appearances vs. Houston. 

The verdict: Toronto rookie right-fielder Cavan Biggio recorded his first career multi home run game Thursday in his team’s 12-3 win at Baltimore and I believe he and his team carry that momentum over here vs. his father’s former club. Upset in the making here!