Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Dallas offense is humming right now ranking 4th in the NFL at 31.5 PPG. They have scored 77 points in 2 games at home this season including 36 last week vs Carolina, who did have the top defense in the league entering the game allowing just 10 PPG on 3.7 YPP. Dallas shredded the Panthers last week for 7.7 YPP which was a full 4 YPP more than they were allowing entering the game. Now they face an NYG defense that ranks 23rd in YPP allowed which is the lowest of any team the Cowboys have faced so far. They will continue to put points on the board in this game. Surprising to many, the Giants offense ranks 8th in the NFL in YPP at 6.2. We were ultra impressed with their offense last week as they rolled up an average of 8.1 YPP on a very good New Orleans defense. Dallas owns the 30th ranked defense allowing 6.4 YPP. So we have 2 good offense, each facing the worst defense they’ve played this season. All but 1 of the Cowboys games this year have reached at least 60 points and that was vs the Chargers who’ve held a number of top notch offenses to their season lows. 9 of the last 12 meetings in Dallas have gone OVER the total and these two have scored an average of 55 points in those 12 meetings. Both teams capable of hitting high 20’s to 30+ so OVER is the play. |
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10-07-21 | Rams -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Las Vegas vs LA Chargers, Monday at 8 PM ET - We don’t expect this division battle to get to 50 points so we’re on the UNDER tonight. 8 of the last 9 meetings have not topped 50 points (in regulation). Last year both meetings went Over however one of those games went to OT and they combined for 9 points in OT otherwise it would have been Under. The Las Vegas passing game likes to attack defenses with deeper routes but this is a poor match up for them as the Chargers are the best in the league at preventing completed passes that travel 15+ yards. The Chargers defense also limits opposing QB’s to 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they’ve limited 2 of their 3 opponents to 20 points or less. That includes Dallas who has one of the top offenses in the league. The lone team to top 20 points was KC and even in that game they held the Chiefs to 24 points. If LAC can limit big plays the Raiders will struggle to score at the same rate they have so far this season. We like what new LAC HC Staley is doing with their defense as he led a top notch stop unit for the LA Rams before taking this job. On offense the Chargers scored just 20 & 17 in their first 2 games before hitting 30 last week @ KC, who has the worst defense in the NFL. Even in that game 10 of their 30 points came in the final 2:14 of the game. Vegas has much improved defensive numbers ranking 9th in the NFL allowing only 5.3 YPP. They are limiting QB’s to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks them on the top 5 in the league. The average point total in the NFL this year is 47 which is down nearly a full FG from last season. These 2 teams know each other very well and over the last 9 meetings they have only averaged 41 total points. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Carolina vs Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Dallas is averaging 30 PPG and you might think this is a game they get shut down by a Carolina defense that ranks #2 in the NFL holding opponents to just 10 PPG. Forget about it. Dallas will put up plenty of points here. First of all the Panthers have face potentially the easy set of offenses in the NFL to date. Their games have come against the Jets with QB Wilson making the first start of his career, the Saints with QB Winston who didn’t play last season + a number of WR’s and offensive coaches out due to Covid, and the Texans with rookie QB Mills making his first start on a short week. Dallas put up 29 on a top notch Tampa defense and 41 last week on a Philly defense that, even after that game, has allowed just 4.7 YPP ranking them 7th in the NFL. The Carolina offense will have to keep up here. They haven’t had to do that yet this season after jumping out to leads and letting their defense dominate poor and inexperienced QB’s. Despite that they’ve still scored 26 & 24 points in their last 2 games so they are capable. The Cowboys rank 4th in the NFL in plays per game and Carolina is 6th so we look for a faster paced game with plenty of offensive snaps. This one goes OVER the total. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 46 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Jacksonville vs Cincinnati, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Cincinnati is 2-1 on the season and their defense is definitely flying under the radar. They rank 4th in the NFL in YPP allowed and 4th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bengals have allowed 46 offensive points in 3 games (minus opponents defensive or special teams scores) which is just 15.3 PPG. We expect them to limit a Jacksonville offense that is still working through their new system on that side of the ball. The Jags have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in 3 games and 3 of those came in their opener vs Houston. Last week the Jags vs Cards game totaled 51 points but 14 of those came on non-offensive TD’s so really just 36 points for the offenses. The week before vs Denver they totaled 36 points but that included a 102 yard kickoff return for Jacksonville so they scored just 29 offensive points combined. Both offenses rank 19th or lower in the league in YPP gained. They are ranked 25th (Bengals) and 31st (Jags) in 3rd down conversion percentage so keeping drives alive here will be tough. Cincy’s offense is slow paced (30th in the NFL) and they love to run the ball (almost 49% of the time – 4th in the NFL) which will eat clock. Jacksonville is faster paced yet they only run 61 plays per game which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. The projected score here is in the range of Cincinnati 27, Jacksonville 20 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Take the UNDER on Thursday Night. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Top Play on 10* UNDER 51.5 - The action on this game currently see’s more tickets coming in on the Over and more money on Under. We’ll side with the money and BET UNDER. 3 of the last four meeting have stayed UNDER the number and the one game that did go Over this Total of 51.5 was last year and it took a late TD with under 2 minutes to play to get to 54 total points. In those three games that stayed below the number these two teams averaged 35PPG. The Eagles put up yards and points in the opener against a horrible Falcons defense then were limited to 328 total yards and 11-points last week by San Francisco. Dallas isn’t as good as the 49ers defensively but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons either. The Cowboys weakness defensively is against the pass (31st) but the Eagles can’t take advantage with the 22nd ranked passing O averaging just 219PYPG. On the flip side the Cowboys (6th) ranked passing attack will have problems moving the ball against an Eagles pass D ranked 3rd. Much like last weeks low scoring game against the Chargers the Cowboys can rely on their rushing attack which is 7th best in the NFL against a Philly D giving up 120RYPG which ranks 19th. Dallas rush D over-rated as TBay and LAC only attempted 33 combined total rushes against them. Eagles will rely on one of the best rushing attacks averaging over 162 rushing yds per game. Eagles on 9-3 Under streak their last 12 games overall, Cowboys on 4-1 Under run as a favorite. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
#495/496 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Green Bay vs San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Niner offense averaged a ridiculous 8.0 YPP in their week 1 win over Detroit. Last week they played a defense with a pulse @ Philly and only put up 17 points on 4.5 YPP. Green Bay’s defense gave up 38 in week one @ New Orleans but that was quite deceiving as the Saints only had 322 total yards in that game. The Saints had two TD drives of less than 22 yards and averaged 1 point for every 8.4 yards gained which was beyond efficient. The league average for yards per point is usually around 15 which would have translated to 21 points for the Saints with their yardage numbers in that game. Last week they allowed 17 points vs Detroit and held the Lions scoreless in the 2nd half. We project GB’s defense to be very solid this year and SF will have problems on offense Sunday. On the other side of the ball, SF’s defense has been very good. They shut down Philly to just 11 points last week and Detroit had 17 points the week prior with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s with the Niners in prevent mode. The GB offense looked better in the 2nd half last week but again, that was vs Detroit who projects to have one of the worst defense in the NFL. Even with that, Green Bay is only averaging 4.8 YPP on the season ranking them 26th in the NFL. They struggled big time vs a very good Saints defense (3 points) and we have San Fran’s stop unit on par with New Orleans. Both of these teams are very slow when it comes to pace. Green Bay finished dead last in pace a year ago running one play 31 seconds. San Francisco was 26th in pace last season. This year they both rank below 22nd in pace. With SF favored in the 3-point range, the expected score is right around 27-24. We don’t see either teams getting to their projected scoring numbers. Take the UNDER here. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
#301/302 – ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Carolina vs Houston, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel this is a bad spot for Carolina on the road for the first time coming off home wins over the Jets & Saints but we’re not about to take Houston in this game with their situation at QB. The Under is the best play in this game. Rookie Davis Mills will start at QB for Houston with Tyrod Taylor going on injured reserve. Mills played the 2nd half last week and let the Texans to one TD @ Cleveland. He was just 8 of 18 through the air and while he was in the game Houston averaged just 4.2 YPP. While he will get to practice with the starters this week, it’s only for a few days on a short week so far from ideal for a rookie QB. He’s facing a Carolina defense that’s allowed 21 points this season and they lead the NFL allowing just 3.7 YPP. Last week vs the Saints the Panthers allowed a total of 128 yards! Houston will struggle offensively in this game. The Panthers haven’t exactly lit the world on fire offensively with 19 points vs the Jets and 26 vs the Saints. Houston’s defense did a decent job last week vs one of the top offenses in the NFL holding the Browns to 355 total yards. Both of these teams like to run the ball ranking in the top 6 in carries per game which will help eat this clock and shorten the game. We foresee Carolina getting ahead in this game and grinding out a win with Houston’s offense doing very little. Play the UNDER on Thursday Night. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points. |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 40.5 Points – NY Giants vs Washington, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 43 which is right where we had it and it has been pushed down to 40.5 so now we’ll jump on the OVER. While this has been a low scoring NFC East series, this total has been adjusted too low. With the total currently set at 40.5 points, this is the 2nd lowest total in the last 23 meetings between these 2 teams. We understand the move down as Washington QB Fitzpatrick was injured and back up Heinicke will be starting here. These teams scored 13 and 16 points last week as well which is the most recent thing bettors have seen. However, neither team was very good defensively last week and we expect both offenses to look much better in week 2. The Washington defense was touted as being one of the best in the NFL this year but they struggled allowing 424 yards to a Charger team that sat many of their starters during the pre-season including QB Herbert. LA scored 20 points but it should have been more as they settled for FG’s on 2 drives deep into Washington territory, Herbert fumbled through the endzone going in to score, and he threw an interception at the Washington 4-yard line. The NYG defense allowed a fairly pedestrian Denver offense (28th in scoring last year / 26th in YPP offense) to put up 27 points on 6.4 YPP. The NYG offense has a lot of weapons at RB & WR and we expect them to play much better this week with a game under their belts. Heinicke was OK last week coming into the game for an injured Fitzgerald but now with a full week of practice as the starter, we also expect Washington to play better on that side of the ball. Remember Heinicke did start last year’s playoff game and threw for over 300 yards and put up 23 points vs one of the best defenses in the league. The average points scored in an NFL game last year was 49.6 and this year after one week it’s 47.8. This one is a full TD+ below those numbers. We like both teams to get to at least 20 points here and that gets this one OVER the total. |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points – Chicago vs LA Rams, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 teams have met 3 times in the last 3 seasons and each game has been a grinder to say the least. All 3 have gone UNDER the total by a combined 56 points! The average total points scored in those 3 games has been just 26. That’s it. We don’t see anything changing this year. We look for Chicago’s offense to struggle vs a Ram defense that will be among the best in the NFL. LA allowed the fewest YPG last season (292) along with the lowest YPP mark (4.7). Chicago will be led at QB by Andy Dalton which doesn’t strike fear in any defense, especially one that sit a top the NFL. The Bears starting offense didn’t show us anything to be positive about in the pre-season. They were on the field for 8 total series, had only 4 first downs, 144 total yards and tallied just 6 points. The Bears will struggle on offense. Chicago’s strength is their defense as well. They have finished in the top 10 in total defense for 4 straight years. The Rams added QB Stafford but let’s not forget they finished 22nd last year in scoring (23 PPG) and 19th in YPP. While he might be an upgrade, we don’t expect this offense to elevate all the much is 2021. The Rams have hit the UNDER in 14 of their last 17 home games. They have also cashed the UNDER in 20 of the last 26 games they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Bears are 13-5 to the UNDER their last 18 as a road dog. The history says low scoring and we agree. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other. They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid. Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter. It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid. They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do. The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine. Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter. Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game. New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago. Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents. Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick. We look for him to struggle again on Sunday. The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here. |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -100 | 60 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - These two teams met in the regular season here in Tampa and the total was the exact same number (56). The game went Under with KC winning 27-24. We can take a few situations from that game to project why we feel this game has a decent shot of going Over this time around. In that game the two teams combined for almost 1,000 yards which would normally equate to 67 total points based on the NFL average of 15 yards per point. So by scoring just 51 in the first game, the two teams averaged 19.6 yards per point which less efficient than the worst team in the NFL in that category, the Jets who averaged 18.4 yards per point. During the regular season, TB was #2 in the NFL in yards per point at 12.5 and KC was 12th at 14.1 so both drastically underperformed in their only meeting this year. Both teams averaged 7.5 yards per play or better in that game which only happened one other time this season. If we look at the games where both teams averaged at least 7.5 per play it’s happened 18 times since 2000 and those games had an average of 73 points scored. Not saying both teams will average those numbers again here, but they have shown they can do just that. Both teams had missed opportunities galore in that game. There were 3 turnovers inside their opponents 15 yard line and only 1 TD was scored in 5 red zone opportunities. That was an anomaly as both of these teams are very efficient in the red zone ranking 11th and 12th in red zone TD’s scored percentage. On top of that, neither defense has been good at stopping teams from scoring TD’s in the red zone with KC ranking dead last in the NFL (74% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s) and TB ranking 19th in that category (62% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s). That first meeting was very pass heavy with 91 pass attempts and just 33 rush attempts and we expect similar numbers here which would favor the Over. These two teams both average right around 30 PPG (KC at 29.6 & TB at 30.7) peaking right now. Tampa’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 6 straight games while KC’s offense put up 38 last week vs Buffalo and had 19 at half vs Cleveland a week earlier before Mahomes was injured in the 3rd and didn’t play the remainder of the game. One thing we will keep an eye on here is the weather. We are releasing this pick on Thursday and the current forecast in Tampa calls for potential rain, but light winds which is key. We think both teams have a solid shot to reach the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 52 | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – Tampa Bay @ Green Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were waiting on the weather here and it now looks like it will actually be perfect. Snow ending early in the morning and light winds by game time. We like an easy Over here between these two high powered offenses. The Bucs have the 2nd best offense in the NFL in terms of yards per point as on average it takes them just 12.6 yards to score 1-point. The #1 rated team in that category is Green Bay who takes just 12.4-yards per point. The Buccaneers average 30.7PPG on the season while the Packers put up 31.8PPG which ranks them in the top two of the NFL. These two teams just faced the Rams and Saints who had two of the better defensive units in the NFL and they both put up 30+ points each. Green Bay’s defense has been ‘average’ all season long and currently rank 17th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. In their last ten games the Packers have faced seven teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive DVOA so their recent defensive statistics are skewed. Now they face a Bucs team that is 3rd in the NFL in DVOA. Green Bay is 19th in yards per point defensively, Tampa Bay is 13th. Tampa Bay has some misleading defensive numbers of their own as they’ve given up 20 or more points in eight of their last ten games and one of the games, they didn’t allow 20+ was against a bad Lions offense. The Bucs recently have allowed 23-points to an anemic Washington offense and 27 points twice to Atlanta who averaged 13.9 yards per point against them. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to do. Packers have scored at least 30 points in 13 of their 17 games this season and Tampa has scored at least 24 points in 15 of their 18 games on the year. The Packers worst game offensively this year, by far, was at Tampa but they did score 10 points on their first 2 drives before turnovers did them in. In that game, Aaron Rodgers threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6 and completed only 45% of his passes – he completed at least 60% in every other game this season. It was just the 5th time since 2013 that Rodgers hit on less than 50% of his passes in a game. He was under constant pressure getting sacked 4 times and hit 13 times. Just one of the worst performances of his career. That kind of stuff motivates him and we expect him to play great on Sunday. Can the OLine give him time? We absolutely believe so as they played great last week vs a Rams defense that came in ranked #1 in sack percentage. Rodgers was not sacked once in the game and he was only hit 1 time. Tampa’s offense is also playing as well as they have all season scoring at least 30 in 5 straight games. Both of these teams have the ability to hit 30 points. With the spread set at GB -3.5, the final score is expected to be in the range of 28-24. GB scored 32 last week vs a Rams defense that is better than this TB stop unit. We could argue the score could have been worse than 32-18 last week as the Packers scored on their first 5 possessions vs the #1 defense in the NFL and only punted twice. We anticipate GB topping 30 here which means Tampa won’t actually have to go crazy on offense to get this OVER 52 points. Play the OVER here. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – Cleveland @ Kansas City, Sunday at 3 PM ET - High total here but we still don’t think It’s high enough. Both of these teams have a strong potential to reach the 30’s in this game and we wouldn’t doubt it if both get above that number. KC has had a few weeks off so we know HC Andy Reid will have a number of new wrinkles on offense. He always has his team ready offensively but especially so in the playoffs with time off. The last 2 years in the division round (week off heading into the game) the Chiefs have scored 82 combined points or 41 PPG. They are facing the weakest defense remaining in the playoffs as Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA defense. Speaking of the weakest defense remaining, KC is right their with Browns ranking 22nd DVOA defense (the 2nd worst defense left in the post season). Both defenses weaknesses match up very poorly with the opposing offense. KC is 31st DVOA rush defense and Cleveland is one of the top running teams in the league ranking 7th DVOA rush offense. On the other side, the Browns are poor at slowing down opposing pass offenses ranking 25th DVOA defense vs the pass and KC’s pass offense is fantastic ranking 2nd DVOA pass offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this game. The Chiefs reached 30+ points in 9 of their 15 games (we are excluding the final regular season game when they sat Mahomes and starters) including games vs Saints, Ravens, and the Dolphins, all top 5 scoring defenses. The Browns offensive numbers are lower than they should be on the season as they played 3 games at home in extremely high winds & 1 game without their entire WR corps. If we subtract those games Cleveland averaged 30 PPG and that includes a 6 point performance in the season opener @ Baltimore and a 7 point performance @ Pittsburgh. They hit 30+ points vs some very good defenses as well including Pittsburgh (last week), Baltimore (in 2nd meeting), Indianapolis, and Washington. We know Mahomes will put up big numbers, however Cleveland QB Mayfield has been playing great as well down the stretch throwing for 2000 yards, 14 TD’s and 1 interception since Thanksgiving. We know Cleveland will have to “keep up” on the scoreboard here and they are more than capable of doing so. OVER is the play. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here. |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -111 | 74 h 3 m | Show |
#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
#145/146 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Tampa Bay @ Washington - Many will look at Tampa’s recent surge on offense a feel this team is peaking on that side of the ball. The Bucs have scored 26, 31, 44, and 47 points over the last month. However, those numbers were put up vs Atlanta (twice), Minnesota, and Detroit, three defenses ranked 27th or lower in total defense AND yards per play defense. Now they face a Washington defense that will be as good as they’ve seen this season (2nd in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense). It’s also a defense that can put serious pressure on opposing QB’s (4th in QB pressure rate) which is bad news for the immobile, aging Tom Brady. He completes just 43% of his passes when under pressure and ranks 31st in the NFL in QBR. We don’t expect Brady to light it up here. On the other side, Washington obviously really struggles on offense. They only average 20.9 PPG and some of their higher scoring efforts came when QB Alex Smith was healthy. Right now he’s not. His arm strength is down this season and with his bad calf he really struggles to move around. Last week vs a poor Philadelphia defense, without their top player (Fletcher Cox), in a must win game they only were able to score 20 on just 4.0 YPP. They’ve scored 20 or less in 6 straight games and we don’t think they get there in this one. They face one of the top defenses in the NFL as Tampa ranking 6th in both total and YPP defense. Washington has faced 3 top 10 defenses this year and they score a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in those 3 games. We tend to look for UNDERS in the playoffs as everything gets ramped up a notch. In games played outdoors the UNDERS have really cashed nicely in the Wildcard round going 81-60-4 the last 145 games. Looks like cold weather in DC on Saturday night and we like this one to stay UNDER the total. |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
#127/128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Seattle @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Seattle’s defense has kicked it into gear over the last 6 weeks holding their opponents to just 13.7 PPG during that stretch. The UNDER has now cashed 7 straight weeks for Seattle. Last week they held a very good LA Rams offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in total YPG, to just 9 points. They’ve run the ball much more often taking some of the pressure off of Russell Wilson’s shoulders. He’s only averaged 206 YPG passing over this last 6 outings. If you throw out their 40 point effort vs the Jets a week after NY blew a potential win on the last play of the game, Seattle is averaging just 21 PPG over their last 7. San Francisco’s offense has been handcuffed ever since losing Garoppolo at QB. They have scored 24 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Niners topped Arizona 20-12 last week with their defense holding the Cards to their lowest point total of the season and a full 2 TD’s below their season average. While Seattle’s defense has been red hot the Niner stop unit has been among the best in the NFL all season. They rank in the top 10 in YPG, YPP, YPC and yards per pass attempt allowed. Their defense ranks 6th in the NFL in DVOA (Football Outsiders) and the Seahawks are 16th in the same category after being near the bottom of the league for much of the early part of the season. These are 2 of the slower offenses in the NFL ranking 22nd and 24th seconds per play and they obviously know each other very well. Our projections have this one tabbed for the lower 40’s and with the current number at 46, we like the UNDER here. |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +3 | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here. |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Tennessee @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Needless to say we don’t see many stops in this game. Green Bay QB Rodgers should have a field day. He’s facing a Titan defense that is the WORST in the league at pressuring the QB ranking last in sack percentage and last in sacks per game. The Tennessee defense has faced 580 drop backs this season and they have only 14 sacks. That 2.4% sack rate is brutally bad. Their pass defense stinks as well ranking 29th in the NFL in passing YPG allowed. The Titan defense has faced just 3 QB’s this year ranked in the top 10 in QBR and they are still one of the worst pass defenses in the league. In those 3 games vs top notch QB’s they’ve allowed nearly a 70% completion rate and an average of 3 TD passes per game. Rodgers is the best QB they’ve faced and this won’t be pretty. On the other side of the ball, we see a similar situation for the Packer defense. They’ve struggled stopping the run and with Derrick Henry and company ranking 2nd in the NFL in rushing, Tennessee will move the ball on the ground. That opens up the play action for Tannehill and GB’s defense will be on their heels for much of the game here. The Packers have faced 4 teams this season that rank in the top 10 in rushing and they allowed an average of 138 YPG on the ground in those games. The Titans have scored more points than any other team in the NFL this season and Green Bay has scored the 3rd most points. GB has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 14 games while Tennessee has done the same in 9 of their 14. Both offenses are very efficient as well ranking in the top 5 in yards per point. Not only are both offense at the top of their game, they match up very well vs the opposing defenses as we touched on. Both teams get into the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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12-27-20 | Rams +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – Miami @ Las Vegas, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - With this total set at 47.5 or 48 points, it’s the lowest total set on a Vegas game since November 1st when they had a total of 48 set @ Cleveland in gale warning winds. The Raider defense has been terrible this year especially as of late. For the season they rank 24th or lower in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed (30 PPG). Over their last 5 games Las Vegas is allowing 36 PPG. The Miami offense doesn’t have great numbers, but they’ve been much better over the last month or so. Since Tagovailoa took over as the starter, his first 4 games the Fins averaged only 240 YPG of total offense and his last 3 they have averaged 386 total YPG. They rushed for 250 yards last week vs New England and we expect Miami to have their best offensive output since Tua took over vs the leaky Raider defense. The Miami scoring defense has great numbers. They are #1 in the NFL allowing 18.4 PPG however their overall numbers come nowhere close to matching up with those scoring numbers. They rank 18th in total defense, 22nd in YPP defense, 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 26th in yards per rush allowed. Those are NOT the overall numbers of a team that is allowing 18.4 PPG. They’ve been very lucky in that regard. Miami has played the Jets, Broncos, Bengals, and Patriots (all ranked 27th or lower in scoring) 4 of their last 5 games holding 3 of those 4 to 12 points or less which has really helped their overall numbers. Against some of the better offenses they’ve faced this year, Miami has given up 33 (KC), 31 (Buffalo), 31 (Seattle), and 31 (Arizona) points. The Raiders have scored at least 27 points in 6 of their last 7 games and it looks like they’ll get starting QB Carr back for this game. Don’t be surprised if they use both Carr and Mariota in different packages keeping the Miami defense off balance. These two have gone OVER the total each of the last 6 meetings and the Raiders are 7-0-1 to the OVER their last 8 games as a home underdog. OVER is the play. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Minnesota @ New Orleans, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - Both of these teams are coming off high scoring games last week and we like to look at the UNDER the following week in this situation if at all possible. We think this sets up nicely for the UNDER while most will look at last week’s results and lean heavily toward the over. When Minnesota clicks on offense, it’s because their running game is rolling. If that happens, it opens up QB Cousins to have a big game with the pressure squarely taken off his back. Last week the Vikings were able to put up 199 yards on the ground vs Chicago and their offense looked very good scoring 27 points. This week they face a Saints defense that only allows 95 YPG on the ground and ranks as the #2 rush defense DVOA on Football Outsiders. In games where Minnesota didn’t top 120 yards rushing, they averaged just 20 PPG which is nearly a full TD below their season average. The Saints were in a shootout last week but that was expected as they were playing the Chiefs. New Orleans lost the game 32-29 but those 29 points came in just 285 total yards of offense. Drew Brees was shaky at best in his return completing only 14 passes (less than 50% completion rate) and he still has problems pushing the ball deep down the field ranking 18th in yards per pass attempt. The New Orleans defense played very well actually despite giving up 32 points they held KC to only 4.5 YPP. The Chiefs were able to speed that game up into a fast paced affair that had 141 offensive plays run. KC ran a ridiculous 91 plays which is 25 above their season average. Thus why they were able to score 32 points on just 4.5 YPP. This one should come in at a much slower pace as New Orleans & Minnesota both are in the top 7 in rushing attempts per game (which slows the game down and speeds up the clock) and they each rank 20th or lower in pace. Prior to last week’s game vs KC the Saints had played in 7 straight games where the combined score was 46 or lower. We see this one playing out similar to last year’s playoff match up in New Orleans where the teams combined for 40 points in regulation (Vikings won 26-20 in OT) and the two combined for only 611 total yards. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-20-20 | Jets v. Rams UNDER 44 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 44 NY Jets @ LA Rams, 4:05PM ET - The Jets competed two weeks ago at home against the Raiders then rolled over last week against Seattle in a 3-40 loss. New York managed just 185 total yards of offense and 3-points against a Seattle defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Seahawks are giving up 25PPG and over 390YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. The Jets managed just 3-points the week before the Raiders against an average Miami defense too. Today New York runs into one of the two or three best defenses in the NFL in the Rams. Los Angeles is 1st in yards allowed per game at 286, 1st in passing yards against, 3rd against the run and 3rd in points allowed per game at 19PPG. On average it takes opponents 15.1 yards to score a point which is the 10th best number in the NFL. The Jets offense is horrible even with Sam Darnold under center. It takes the Jets 19.2 yards to score a single point which is last in the NFL by a wide margin. NY’s average yards per play is just 4.7YPPL, again, last in the NFL. Yes, the Jets have given up points this season but despite gaudy offensive statistics (total yards, rushing and passing) the Rams only average 25PPG which is in the lower half of the NFL. The Jets are slightly above average in terms of pace while the Rams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to tempo. Scoring has continually dropped this NFL season so a Total this low doesn’t scare us off, especially when the Jets could legitimately get shutout here. Bet Under! |
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12-20-20 | Patriots +1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday. Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort. Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out. In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s. His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games. This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa. Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers. What happened in that game? Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks. Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs. The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both). Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically. In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards. We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here. Offensively they should move the ball as well. This is a bad match up for the Miami defense. Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed. Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins. They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams. Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC. Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS. We like New England to win this game. |
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12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | Top | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record. For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1). Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team. They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9. The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD. They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that. They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means. The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball. Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here. Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night. Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL. This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious. Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time. The Raiders were dominated 43-6. A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3. The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game. That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season. Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts. The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP. Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night. The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders. With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less). They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above. Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule. Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG. In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards. LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable. The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now. Chargers are the side. |
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12-13-20 | Packers -8 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game. Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage). That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense. The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly). What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL? If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly. The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards. Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved. They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead. The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy). GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up. Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out. Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards. Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career. A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here. |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Houston @ Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This total is set too low. We understand the season numbers for Chicago say bad offense, good defense. Those numbers have changed over the last few weeks. Trubisky is back at starting QB and like him or not, when he starts this year they are averaging 26 PPG. Since taking over for Foles a few weeks ago, the Bears have scored 25 vs the Packers and 30 vs Detroit. That success should continue here vs a bad Houston defense. The Texans rank 27th in defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 24th in scoring defense. Last week they lost to Houston 26-20 combining for 46 points, however that was extremely deceiving. The score at halftime was 24-20 and they scored a grand total of 2 points in the 2nd half despite plenty of chances. The Houston offense played well averaging 6.4 YPP in that game vs one of the better defenses in the NFL. With this total set at 45.5 or 46, we look at Houston’s full season and see their games have reached at least 46 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and one of those was @ Cleveland in gale force winds (the other they totaled 44 points vs Jacksonville). They should have success vs a Chicago defense that is trending down. They’ve allowed 41 and 34 points the last 2 weeks vs GB and Detroit. Going back further, the Chicago defense has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Weather can be a problem in Chicago this time of year, but not for this game. Temps in the mid 30’s and very light winds (5 MPH). With this game close to a pick-em a final score of 23-23 puts this at or over the number depending on your line. We think both teams top 23 points in this game. Take the OVER. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – New England @ LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Most will look at the Patriots 45-0 win last week and think the offense lit it up. Not the case. In fact, the Pats had just 291 total yards in the game. They benefited from a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt return for a TD. Plus they were playing a bad Charger defense that has now allowed at least 27 points in 9 straight games. A week earlier they scored 20 points in a win over Arizona and had only 179 total yards. That’s 65 points the last 2 weeks despite averaging only 235 YPG. That can’t continue. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Rams are in the top 5 in total defense and scoring defense and they rank #1 in the NFL allowing only 4.6 YPP. New England is in the bottom 10 in scoring averaging just 22 PPG. In the 5 games this year the Ram defense has played a team currently ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring, they’ve allowed an average of 13 PPG. Defensively, the Pats have been playing very well. The have allowed 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. We’re not talking about poor offenses either as the 3 teams they scored 17 or less were the Ravens, Cardinals, and Chargers. The Rams have played to the UNDER in 7 of their last 9 games and New England has gone UNDER in 4 straight. With the spread set a Rams -5, the projected score in this game is LA 25 – New England 20. We don’t think either team hits their projected score here and we like the UNDER. |
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12-07-20 | Bills +2 v. 49ers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games. Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games. This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th. We also like the line value here. Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago. Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site. In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter. That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win. Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field. SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is. When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots. San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game. Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits. QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts. Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite. We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5, NY Giants @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Seattle has changed their offensive philosophy over the last few weeks. Pete Carroll is trying to take some pressure off Russell Wilson and run the ball much more often. That’s what Carroll has always preferred anyway. Now that RB’s Carson & Hyde are both healthy, they’ve run the ball 30+ times each of the last 2 weeks after running it 30 times just twice in their first 8 games. The Seahawks have been successful running the ball as well with 241 yards on the ground the last 2 games. Seattle ranked #1 in drop back rate (almost 70%) over the first 10 weeks but the last 2 games they’ve ranked 15th and 20th in that category. Seattle has also been very deliberate on offense the last 2 weeks as they are dead last in pace over those 2 games. With running the ball more often and slowing down their pace, they are also trying to give their defense, who has faced more snaps than any other team in the NFL, a break. It’s working as the Seattle stop unit has allowed just 23, 21, and 17 points the last 3 weeks. They should have success here vs a NYG offense that ranks 30th in scoring at 19.5 PPG and will probably be without their QB as Daniel Jones who is dealing with a hamstring issue. Colt McCoy will most likely get the start for the Giants and he is more of a game manager than a big play QB. Even with Jones under center, NYG has topped 21 points just 1 time in their last 6 games. Defensively it’s another story for the Giants. They are solid. This is a top 10 defense (allowing 340 YPG) that over the last 6 games they’ve held their opponents to just 20 PPG. The Giants have gone UNDER the total 6 of the last 7 times they’ve been a road underdog and we expect another low scoring game here. |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy. They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week. The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season. Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed. They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks. Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well. Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday. Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week. Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s. The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games. They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury. That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground). On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense. So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR. Not a winning combination. The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games. They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23. Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here. Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense. The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston. Lay the FG here. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 48.5 Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We like the bargain number here as this game opened with a Total of 53 and slowly trickled down to the current number of 48.5. You know us, we love the extra value and will put ourselves on the same side as Vegas here. Much of the talk surrounding the Eagles has been the poor play of QB Carson Wentz. But it’s clearly not all his fault as he’s been sacked 40 times this season. He should be able to get rid of the football much quicker in this game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in opposing QB’s completion percentage against them. Let’s also consider that Wentz has thrown 14 INT’s and fumbled 4 times so turnovers could lead to quick scores for the Seahawks. Seattle allows the most yards per game in the NFL this season at 435YPG but they also rack up 400 yards per game offensively which is good for 3rd overall. The Hawks give up an average of 29PPG (27th) but scored 32PPG which ranks 2nd. The lowest total posted on a Seattle game in the last eight weeks was 54.5 which is related to their high-powered offense and bad defense. Philly on the other hand is coming off a game in Cleveland where the total was 45.5, just a few points lower than this number, and the conditions were horrendous. Prior to that the Eagles had played three straight division games which tend to be lower scoring. Any way you cut it this shapes up to me higher scoring. |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - To hold Tampa’s offense in check, you need to have an elite pass rush. Brady is not great when under pressure but if he has time, he’ll pick you apart. Case in point, last week when the Bucs faced a top notch Rams pass rush, they were held to 251 total yards but still scored 24 points. A few week’s prior to that they faced New Orleans, who is top 5 in sack percentage, and the Bucs scored just 3 points. In their other meeting with the Saints they had 23 points. If we take away their games vs top 10 rush defenses (sack percentage) the Bucs are averaging 34.5 PPG. KC’s rush defense ranks 21st in the NFL. The TB has solid overall stats but much of that came early in the season. They have allowed 26 PPG over last 5 games and only 1 of those teams (Rams) ranked in the top 10 in total offense. Now they face a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and 1st in scoring. The Chiefs are rolling offensively scoring at least 33 points in 4 straight games. They’ve been held under 30 points only 3 times this season. Their defense is another story. They’ve been giving up points and yardage. The last 2 games alone, vs Panthers & Raiders, they’ve allowed 31 points in each and over 400 yards in each. They’ve allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 6 games and 2 of the games they did not they were facing the Jets & Broncos, two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both of these teams like to play at a fast tempo with TB 10th and KC 14th in pace of play. Those numbers are actually deceiving as they should both be ranked higher in pace of play. They are ranked 3rd and 4th in first half pace of play and because they have gotten out to some big leads, they’ve slowed down in the 2nd half which affect their overall pace. We don’t see either team getting out to a big lead here. We look for a back and forth game in perfect weather in Tampa (80 degrees and light winds) and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5. Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS. On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game. Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards. Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s. Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA. Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF). Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last. New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL. We like the Saints laying under a TD here. |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Houston @ Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET Two poor defenses facing off on Thanksgiving and we like the OVER here. Houston ranks 31st in total defense while Detroit ranks 27th. They both rank low in overall defensive efficiency as well with Houston 29th and Detroit 25th (per Football Outsiders). Each team’s offensive strength is their passing game and that matches up very well with the defensive weakness on the other side of the ball. The Texans ranks 22nd in overall pass defense and 27th in defensive yards per pass attempt. Detroit ranks 25th in pass defense and 26th in defensive yards per pass attempt. We expect both offenses to move the ball very well in this game. Detroit was shut out at Carolina last week 20-0. We like that situation as we fully expect them to focus offensively after that embarrassing output. They were also missing a number of key weapons that look like they may return on Thursday including RB Swift, WR’s Golladay & Amendola, and TE Hockenson. Offense hadn’t been a problem for Detroit prior to last week. In fact, they’ve faced 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in total defense this year and they’ve scored 30, 29, 23, and 21 points in those games. Now they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL and we look for a big performance from the Lion’s offense. The Houston defense has allowed at least 28 points in 6 of their 10 games and they only time they allowed less than 20 was vs Jacksonville (terrible offense) and vs Cleveland with 35+ MPH winds in a 10-7 game. Houston’s offense has really started playing well as of late after a very tough early season schedule. If we throw out their game in gale force winds in Cleveland where nobody was going to score points, the Texans have averaged 28 PPG over their last 5. We know the conditions will be perfect in the Dome in Detroit. Those conditions and the fast track has led to some very high scoring games in Detroit this year. In fact, all of the Lion’s 4 home games have gone OVER and 10 of the last 11 games here have gone OVER. This year they’ve scored 64, 62, 57 and 50 points in their home games. The last 2 scores listed were vs Washington & Chicago who have very good defenses (both top 10) and terrible offenses (both bottom 5) and they still were high scoring games. The final projected score here is right around Houston 27 – Detroit 24 and we expect both teams to top those numbers. Take the OVER. |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – LA Rams @ Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET- Two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off here and we grab the UNDER. The Bucs & Rams rank 2nd and 3rd in total defense, 1st & 2nd in YPP defense, 8th & 3rd in scoring defense, and 1st & 5th in rush defense. The offenses have had their moments but when facing top defenses, they’ve both been held in check for the most part. Tampa has played 3 top 10 defense (YPP defense) and they’ve scored 3, 19, and 23 points in those games. The Rams have scored more than 24 points only once in their last 6 games. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked in the top 10 in total defense and scored 16, 24, and 30 in those games. Their 30 point output was vs Washington. So combining the two they’ve only topped 24 points only once in 6 games vs top tier defensive teams. The Rams rely heavily in the run ranking 8th in rushing yards and 5th in carries per game. They face the #1 rush defense in the NFL here as Tampa has allowed just 76 YPG on the ground on 3.3 YPC. Tampa hasn’t been a great running team this year (23rd in the NFL) and if they do try to establish a ground game, the Rams rank 5th in the NFL allowing just 96 YPG rushing. So the QB’s will play a big role here. The problem is, both defense are very good at pressuring the QB and neither QB is very good under pressure. These 2 defenses are 2nd and 4th in sacks per game and 4th and 5th in sack percentage. Brady has long been known as a poor passer under pressure because he can’t move. This year he is completing only 46% of his passes under pressure which ranks him 29th when we limit it to QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games this year. Goff is worse. He comes in at 38% which ranks him 38th when compared to all other QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games. We anticipate a grinder here with the 2 defenses being the best units on the field. Take the UNDER. |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Green Bay @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Indy’s defense has some impressive overall numbers. They rank #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing 290 YPG. The problem is, we feel those defensive numbers are inflated because they’ve only played ONE team this year that is currently ranked in the top 10 in total offense. That was a Minnesota team that currently ranks 8th in total offense, however that game was way back on September 20th when Minnesota was still finding their footing. The Vikes are MUCH better now offensively than they were back then. Facing the Bears, Bengals, Jags, and Jets (4 teams ranked 22nd or lower in YPP offense) tends to pad your defensive numbers. On a similar note, the Colt’s pass defense has very good numbers but they’ve played just ONE QB ranked in the top 10 in QBR. On Sunday they face Aaron Rodgers who ranks #1 in the NFL in QBR this season. The Packers have scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 9 games this year and are off a subpar offensive effort vs Jacksonville last week (24 points in high winds) so we expect a very good performance on that side of the ball. They are fairly healthy as well with RB Jones getting back to full strength, WR Adams cleared to play and WR Lazard ready to go as well. The Indy offense is rolling right now as well scoring at least 30 in 3 of their last 4 games. They face a GB defense that has looked better the last 2 weeks holding Jacksonville (terrible offense) to 20 points and SF (without their QB or RB) to 17 points. Prior to that when they actually faced decent offenses they allowed 30+ points to TB, Minnesota, and New Orleans. Perfect playing conditions in the dome help to make this a high scoring affair. In their indoor games this year where weather was not a factor Indy is averaging 29 PPG. For GB they’ve played 3 dome games this season and scored 43, 37, and 35 points in those games. Take the OVER |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here. They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago. Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining. Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low. Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye. They are still undefeated at home this year. Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th. They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo). Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired. Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record. Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here. The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson. Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle. We don’t think he will here. If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5. Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game. Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit. Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago? Bad line. Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed. Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC. Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC. Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts. The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge. If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game. We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football. The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses. In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season. The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game. Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th. The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee. Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright. The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight. If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick. Take the Bears. |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34. However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers. Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all. In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points. Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations. The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP. This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less. Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25. Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss. They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road. This is a big game for Arizona. Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP. The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing. That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG. Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night. |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – New Orleans @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These two met earlier this year and the total was set at 48.5 points. That final score was Bucs 43, Saints 34 so it went way over the total. Thus, this total is set nearly a full FG higher. The first final score between these 2 was quite misleading. Tampa had 310 total yards and New Orleans had only 271 and neither averaged 5.0 YPP. There were 9 scoring possessions in that game and 4 of them came on drives of less than 45 yards and TB scored on a pick 6. Last Sunday was the first top 10 defense the Saints have faced since their season opener vs TB and they scored just 23 points (in regulation) vs Chicago. The Bucs have also faced just 1 top 10 defense since playing the Saints and they scored just 19 points in that game. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in efficiency defense (Football Outsiders) and total defense. The Tampa defense ranks #1 in the NFL in efficiency (Football Outsiders) and they’ve held 6 of their 8 opponents to 23 points or less. The Saints defense is ranked 8th in the NFL in efficiency and they’ve held 5 of their 8 opponents to 27 points or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in 7 straight games which has helped push this total higher than it should be in our opinion. It’s projected to be rainy and windy on Sunday evening in Tampa which will help limit scoring opportunities. 9 of the last 12 meeting between these 2 NFC South rival @ Tampa have gone under the total. With Tampa favored by -4.5 here the projected final is TB 28 and NO 23. We think both teams land under those numbers. We like the UNDER on Sunday Night. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 49.5 Points – Green Bay @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Green Bay will be without their top 3 RB’s for this game so we expect Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball a lot in this one. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring and they’ve been held under 30 just twice all season. Last week vs Minnesota they only put up 22 points, however they put up 400 yards in that game but simply blew a number of chances. Their seasonal yards per point average is 12.6 which ranks them 6th in the NFL. If that is used to figure out what GB would normally score when gaining 400 yards it comes to 31 points. SF’s defense has solid overall numbers but they’ve faced 5 opponents ranked 24th or lower in scoring. The 3 solid offenses they’ve faced Miami, Seattle, & Arizona (all ranked in the top 11 in scoring) the SF defense allowed an average of 29 PPG. Green Bay will score here. San Francisco is without QB Garoppolo but we don’t feel back up Nick Mullens is a big downgrade. He came in last week and threw for 273 yards and led the Niners on TD drives on their final 3 offensive possessions. He’s already started 2 games this year and is completing over 70% of his passes so we think they’ll be fine. The San Fran running game, top 10 in both YPG & YPC, will keep them balanced and should have a nice day vs a GB defense that was ripped for 173 yards on the ground last week vs Minnesota. With this total set at 49.5, it’s actually a few points lower than the average scoring numbers in the NFL this year which is 51 PPG. The weather looks perfect on Thursday night and we like the OVER here. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points. |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion. The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued. For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year. They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29. Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2? The Saints simply aren’t that great this year. They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less. Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis. New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina. The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier. Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT. Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out. The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season. New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team. On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL. We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled. However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot. Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday. This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago. |
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11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 44 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
#276/276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 44 Points – LA Chargers @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver only scored 16 points last week at home vs KC but they put up 411 total yards. Their offense actually pushed into KC territory on 7 of their offensive possessions. They were only able to come up with 1 TD in the game but had multiple chances to put more than 16 points on the board. Same situation a week earlier @ New England. The Broncos settled for SIX field goals in that game in an 18-12 win. Again they had lots of chances to put numbers on the board in that game as well. The point is, this offense is playing much better than what their final scores might indicate. We think the Denver offense breaks out this week vs a Chargers defense that has allowed 38, 30, and 29 points their last 3 games. Most concerning was last week as they allowed 29 points to a Jacksonville team that had scored 30 points total their previous 2 games vs Houston & Detroit, two below average defenses. The Charger offense has been on a tear under rookie QB Herbert. They have scored 31, 27, and 39 points their last 3 games including the first two scores vs Tampa & New Orleans who both rank in the top 7 in the NFL in total defense. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in every start this season and the Chargers are #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. The Broncos defense is highly ranked but against the good offenses they’ve faced the scoring has been high. KC scored 43 last week in a snowstorm, Pittsburgh scored 26, and the Bucs put up 28. Even the Jets, the lowest scoring team in the NFL, had 28 points vs the Broncos so we have no doubt the Chargers will score here. Last week we had a snow storm in Denver, this Sunday calls for temps in the mid 60’s and light winds. Perfect weather. This total is currently sitting at 44.5 which is a low total for today’s NFL which averages right around 51 PPG. Take the OVER in Denver on Sunday. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home. |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Pittsburgh’s overall defensive numbers this year are very good, however they’ve played a VERY easy schedule of offenses thus far. In 3 of their 4 games they’ve faced the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos who currently rank 29th, 28th, and 27th in offensive efficiency (YPP offense). Two of those three actually scored more points vs the Steelers than their season average and the other, the Giants, hit their average PPG right on the head. Last week Pittsburgh faced an Eagle offense that was averaging an NFL worst 4.5 yards per play entering the game. Philly eclipsed that average by nearly a yard and a half last week putting up 5.9 YPP vs Pittsburgh. The Eagles came into the game averaging 21 PPG and put up 29 last Sunday. Now they face a Cleveland offense that is rolling scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games. If you throw out their clunker in week 1 @ Baltimore, the Browns are averaging 37.5 PPG over their last 4. That includes a 32 point output last week vs the Colts who entered the game as the #1 overall defense in the NFL. The problem with Cleveland isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. They’ve allowed 30 or more in 3 of their 5 games and haven’t allowed less than 20 in any game this season. Pittsburgh’s offense scored 38 points last week on a solid Philly defense (#6 in YPP defense) and they’ve scored at least 26 in every game this year. The weather looks great here with light winds and no precipitation and we expect an AFC North shootout. Take the OVER. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +8 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL. Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line. Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit. Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29. Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season. We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now. They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire. They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT. Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win. Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing. The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation. This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game. The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn. The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite. Undervalued vs Overvalued here. Take the points. |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Miami @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - San Francisco is getting Garoppolo back at QB here which will help this offense immensely. He’s a big upgrade over Mullens & Beathard. Top TE Kittle came back last week and their starting RB Mostert looks like he may be back as well for this one. San Fran’s offense has actually been playing well with some of their top playmakers on the shelf. Last week they scored just 20 points vs Philly but had over 400 yards of offense on 6.0 YPP. However they committed 3 turnovers including an interception at the Eagle 14 yard line as they were heading in to potentially score. Prior to last week the Niners scored 31 vs the Jets and 36 vs a very good NY Giants defense that ranks in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories. We see San Francisco moving the ball at will this week vs a Miami defense that ranks last in the NFL allowing 6.6 YPP. The Fins offense has actually come around nicely after their season opener @ New England where they scored only 11 points. Since that game they have scored 28, 31, and 23 points. Last week’s 23 they put up on Seattle was very deceiving as Miami settled for FIVE field goals in that game despite rolling up over 400 yards on 6.1 YPP. We hope that head coach Brian Flores learns from that mistake as in today’s game, it’s very hard to win settling for that many FG’s. High scoring games are now the norm (league average is 51.5 PPG) and they’ll need to score with San Fran to keep up here. We think they will. The Niner defense is a bit overrated right now as they’ve faced the Jets, Giants, and Eagles in their last 3 games. Those 3 offense rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd this year in yards per play! With the 49ers favored by 8 and the total set around 50, the final score expected is 29-21. We like both team to eclipse their expected totals in this game. The weather looks great in SF for the game and we like the OVER here. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 45 Points, Tampa Bay @ Chicago, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a low total by today’s standards but we still like the UNDER in this game. This number opened 45 and has dropped to 44.5 which is also telling as most of the totals this year are moving up from the opener and now down. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL here with Tampa ranking 2nd in Football Outsiders defensively with Chicago coming in at 7th. On a yards per play basis, these 2 defense also both rank in the top 7 in the NFL. The Bears offense was putrid last week vs Indy scoring just 11 points and they had only 3 points under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. They tallied only 269 total yards and 90 of those came on their final drive while the Colts were in prevent defense mode. It wasn’t a complete surprise as Indy’s defense ranks #1 in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA but let’s not forget Tampa ranks 2nd so not a huge difference. Chicago has scored 85 points on the season and nearly half of those points (42) came in the 4th quarter of their games vs the Lions & Falcons when they had to make big comebacks vs teams with terrible defenses. Tampa is coming off a big offensive output last week as they had to come from 24-7 down at home vs Chargers to get the 38-31 win. Their defense played poorly allowing 6.5 YPP which is well above their average of 5.1 YPP allowed. Expect a much better effort tonight. Overall offensively TB is a middle of the pack team averaging 5.7 YPP which ranks them 18th in that category. We don’t foresee Brady having a huge night (5 TD passes last week) vs a Chicago defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bucs offense is also banged up with WR Godwin, RB Fournette, RB McCoy, and TE Howard all out tonight. Their top WR Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points. |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a huge game for the Cowboys. They cannot afford to drop to 1-3. They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record. Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win. Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process. A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one. The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record. Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say. However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy. They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away. Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG. Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games. This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40.5 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 40.5 Denver Broncos at New York Jets, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - These are two bad offenses as they rank in the bottom three in the league along with the Giants in most statistical categories. Both average less than 5.0 yards per play and less than 16PPG. So how can we bet Over here? For several good reasons starting with who each team has played and how it’s impacted their offensive numbers. The Jets have faced the Colts who are 1st in defensive efficiency this season, the 49ers who are 5th and the Bills who were 7th a year ago. The Broncos are in a similar boat as they have faced Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh who currently rank 2nd and 3rd in DEFF and the Titans who are league average. It’s no wonder these two teams have struggled offensively to start the season. Both will face defenses that are slightly above average and slightly below and should have a much easier time scoring in this Thursday night affair. Both teams do not waste a lot of time running their offense as they rank 10th and 11th in pace of play averaging less than 25.83 second to run a play. NFL teams are averaging 51 PPG combined this year. Overs are 30-18 on the season and through 3 weeks last season averages scores in the NFL were 44.5, so up almost a full TD per game. The other big key here is the actual number posted by Vegas. Average Totals set in 2020 / week 1 =45.5 / week 2 = 46 / week 3 = 48 / week 4 = 50. With this number being as low as it is we have to bet OVER here. |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception. Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points. The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week. Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win. That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here. The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta. The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes. Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win. Now Seattle is a bit overvalued. Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1. We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value. The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field. After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP. They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league. Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late. Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright. Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018. This one should be close so we grab the points. |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER 49 Points – New Orleans @ Las Vegas, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Many will simply look at the final scores from last week, see that the Saints put up 34 points, and just assume their offense rolled up big numbers. That’s not the case at all. In fact, their offense simply wasn’t very good in that win over Tampa. They tallied just 271 total yards and barely averaged 4.0 YPP. QB Brees looked old (he is) and struggled to throw for only 160 yards. He will now most likely be without his top target by far, WR Thomas who was injured last week. Two of New Orleans TD’s came on a pick 6 thrown by TB QB Brady and a short field after another Brady interception. The Saints defense, o the other hand, looked very solid vs what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL (Tampa). They made Brady look simply not very good and held the Bucs to just 4.8 YPP. Not a surprise as we had their defense rated very highly coming into this season after holding 6 of their final 9 opponents last year to 20 points or less in regulation. The Raiders put up 34 points last week but that was facing a Carolina defense we have pegged for near the bottom of the league. That final score was 34-30 and the 2 teams put up those numbers on 760 total yards. That means they were scoring 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained. In the Bucs – Saints game, they put up 57 points on just 581 total yards or 10.2 yards per point. Both of those games had extremely efficient numbers offensively which also has luck involved. To give you an idea, last season SF led the league at 1 point scored for every 12.9 yards gained which was worse than BOTH games we are discussing here. Both teams involved in Monday’s game scored over 30 points last week which gives us some solid value on the UNDER in this game. |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 43 – Cincinnati @ Cleveland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We like the value here as this total opened 46 and we’re now seeing 43. Our advice would be to play this NOW as we expect the total to head back up on Thursday. Look for the Cleveland offense and new HC Stefanski (former Minnesota OC) to come out with a chip on their shoulder on Thursday night after being held to 6 points last week @ Baltimore. They go from facing a top 5 defense to a middle of the pack at best defense which will help the offense. Cleveland’s defense last week allowed nearly 7.0 YPP to the Ravens and while we don’t expect that from the Bengals, they should have success moving the ball with Joe Burrow now at QB (193 yards passing & 46 yards rushing last week). The Chargers offense, with new QB Tyrod Taylor, actually moved the ball pretty well on the Bengals after the first few series. They were held on downs twice inside Cincy territory and missed a FG so their 16 points was a bit deceiving. The Chargers only punted twice after their first 3 series so they had chances to score points but didn’t. This has been a fairly high scoring series as of late with the last 5 meetings getting to at least 44 points. The average point total in the last 5 meetings is 49 PPG. In last year’s 2 meetings the offenses combined to average 6.0 yards per play while scoring 56 & 46 points. Now that this one is down to 43, we like the OVER. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants UNDER 46 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 46 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. NY Giants, Monday 7PM ET The Steelers welcome the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope he can spark an offense that averaged 26.8PPG in 2018, then dropped to 27th in the league in scoring last season at 18.1PPG. Big Ben is a 15 year NFL vet and obviously knows this offense inside and out but he’s coming into this game with a short prep time and a surgery-repaired right elbow. Just how effective and crisp will he be with his young receivers? Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely Coach Tomlin is going to jeopardize the season by having him throw it a ton in the opener, especially with two new starters on the right-half of the starting O-line. We expect the Steelers to have a conservative game plan and a heavy dose of the running game with James Conner, who is coming off a down season after missing several games and facing defenses stacked to stop the run. Don’t expect the Steelers to just score a ton of points against this Giants defense that wasn’t quite as bad as some statistics show from 2019. New York was 26th in yards allowed per game but did hold opposing rushers to under 4.0 yards per rush which was 4th best in the NFL. The Giants have a new system in place with new head coach Joe Judge who comes from the Patriots organization along with a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett from Dallas. Garrett will lean on running back Saquon Barkley as he did Elliott in Dallas. Under Garrett the Cowboys ranked top 10 in rushing attempts per game the past four seasons. But can Barkley have success against this Steelers ferocious defense that allowed just one 100-yards rusher last season. We are not sure we want to be Daniel Jones the second year QB for the Giants who will see plenty of pressure up front. The Steelers defensive front should have itself a field day versus the Giants O-line which starts rookie tackle Andrew Thomas and first-year Giant Cam Fleming. New York also has a new center, Nick Gates, who started in three games last season at guard. Both teams were near average in yards per point offense and below average in scoring. The Steelers were one of the slower paced teams in the league last season and the new regime in New York has emphasized a ball control approach in camp. Our math model projects just 41 total points being scored here and we couldn’t agree more. |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 54.5 Points – Houston vs Kansas City, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We think there is definitely some value on this UNDER. It currently sits at 55 points and when these two met in last year’s playoffs, the total was 50.5. We’re sure the reason the oddmakers had to set this number so much higher than last year’s total was the fact the playoff game was such a high scoring final with the Chiefs winning 51-31. This is absolutely a different situation this year. We expect the offenses to be a bit behind to start the season with a shortened training camp and no pre-season games to get in sync offensively. In their playoff match up both teams were overly efficient offensively scoring 1 point every 10 yards gained. To put that in perspective, the team that led the NFL in yards per point efficiency was San Francisco at 12.6. The average YPPT number last year in the NFL was around 15.5. If that number was applied to the total yardage in that game last year (876 yards) they would have scored 56 total points, not 81. These 2 also met in October of last season with Houston winning 31-24. The Texans ran the ball 41 times in that game attempting to keep the ball away from the KC offense. It worked in the regular season meeting and we expect a heavy dose of new RB David Johnson here vs a defense that ranked 29th last year YPC allowed. Trying to get in a shootout with KC doesn’t work. Houston found that out in the playoffs. To put this number in the season opener in perspective, Houston didn’t have a SINGLE total set this high all of last season. Kansas City had ONE total set higher than this one and that was 55.5 vs Indy in what turned out to be a 19-13 game. If we project this total onto last year’s results for both teams, in other words if every total last year was 55 for each team’s games, we would have seen 24 Unders, 10 Overs, and 3 Ties. The UNDER in KC home games in which they are favored by more than a TD is an impressive 21-4! Simply too many points in a season opener with a less than ideal situation leading up to this game. Take the UNDER. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion. The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule. The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs. Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs). The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season). KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team. Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp. San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143. Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game. San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game. Slight edge to Frisco. We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions. Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect. Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter! The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers. We agree with that. They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense. They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground. If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl. We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines. We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday. Take San Francisco. |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog. However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games. It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs. In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game. They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs. That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past. KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home. Just a huge situational edge for KC. In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards. As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs. Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half. Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line. The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game. The Titans were very fortunate in our view. KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team. The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee. The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game. KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here. Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC. Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home. Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now. While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG. They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points. We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony. With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson. While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s. They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season. Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm. This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again. They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week. Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%. They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up. Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less. Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games. Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons. We like GB to win this game by a TD or more. |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line is way too high in our opinion. It should be under 7 according to our power ratings. To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans. The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records. For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record. On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year. They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC. Recent results have pushed this number too high. Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position. New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera. Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee. However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained). That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record. The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago. If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG. Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP. We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion. Take Minnesota on Sunday. |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs. Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC. They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs. Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense. The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games. We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here. They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England. Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards. Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG. On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points. However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late. When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG. They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL). On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP. These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13. The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball. A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin. The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game. Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%). Take the points here. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week. Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home. The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle. Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West. These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT. Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road? We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday. Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone. Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin. This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year. For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore. That puts this number into perspective. The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011. They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT. We’ll take the points. |
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +4 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Many will be jumping on Philly here because they have to win to clinch the NFC East title. Please keep in mind that many teams that have to win, don’t win. We give the Giants a good shot at the upset here. The Eagles beat Dallas last week but let’s face it, they were not playing well coming into that game. In their previous 3 games before facing off with Dallas, they lost to Miami, beat this NYG team in OT, and scored with under 30 seconds left to beat Washington. Not overly impressive. As we mentioned these two met a few weeks ago in what was a very important game for the Eagles and the Giants led 17-3 at half but lost in OT. That was with immobile Eli Manning at QB for NY and now with Jones back at QB we feel the Giants have a better chance in this one. Jones returned last week from injury and threw for 352 yards and 5 TD’s while also giving them a running threat from that position. He’ll also get help from now healthy RB Barkley who had 189 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards last week. The Giants offense has now put up 400+ and 500+ yards in each of their last two games, both wins. NY has been competitive with 5 of their last 7 losses coming by a TD or less and they have some momentum coming into their home finale off back to back wins. Philly 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and we’re not sure we can even count cover @ Washington as it took 2 TD’s in final 30 seconds (defensive TD included) to get that lucky cover. How much does Philly have left in the tank after 3 straight down to the wire division games including a must win last week vs Dallas? NY will come to play here as they’d like nothing more than to knock Philly from the NFC East top spot. Close game and we’ll take the points |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +3 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Browns have obviously been a huge disappointment this season. We could see them mailing it in this week in their season finale @ Cincy. They had a big game last week at home vs Baltimore, their last hurrah so to speak, and lost 31-15. With a team that lacks character like Cleveland and with nothing to play for, we anticipate a poor effort here. On the other side, while the Bengals have only 1 win on the season, they’ve been much better since inserting Andy Dalton back at QB a month ago. Unlike Cleveland, the Bengals are also showing some fight as witnessed in last week’s game @ Miami where they trailed 35-12 in the fourth quarter and battled back to send the game into OT where they lost by a FG. In their home finale, we have no doubt this team wants to up their 1 win and go out on a positive note. They’ve also already locked up the #1 pick in next year’s draft so no taking for Cincy here. These two just met in Cleveland 3 weeks ago and the Browns won that game 27-19. It was a misleading final however as Cincinnati outgained the Browns by 120 yards but gave up a 61-yard pick 6 which turned out to be the difference. The Bengals were +10 in first downs in that first meeting and controlled the ground game in that loss with 179 yards rushing. They tallied 451 total yards and after last week’s performance they have topped 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. The Browns have also been a money burner as a road favorite at 1-3 ATS & SU this year and 1-5-1 ATS in that role since 2012. We like Cincinnati to win this game so we’ll take the points. |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PMET The Packers have been treading on thin ice for quite some time and now and we think it catches up with them here. They are 11-3 on the season but they have been outgained by their opponents 371 YPG to 336 YPG. They rank 21st in the NFL in total offense and 23rd in total defense. Those simply aren’t the numbers of an 11 win team. Last week a struggling Bears offense outgained Green Bay by 123 yards but the Packers pulled out an 8 point win. That was the 7th time this season GB has been outgained yet still won the game. Aaron Rodgers is barely completing 50% of his passes over the last 3 weeks and Green Bay has been held to 24 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s really tough to keep winning when you’re getting consistently outplayed on the stat sheet. Especially on the road vs a solid team. Minnesota is 6-0 at home with all but one win coming by at least 10 points. Their average margin of victory here in Minneapolis is 13.5 points. In the first meeting the Vikes rolled up 421 yards and held GB to just 335 but the Packers squeaked out a 21-16 win. Minny QB Cousins, while most wouldn’t expect it, is having a better year the Rodgers. He’s completing 70% of his passes (63% for Rogers), with 3,481 yards (Rodgers slightly less at 3,463), 25 TD’s (24 for Rodgers) and a rating of 111.1 (Rodgers is at 100.4). If the Vikings lose here they give Green Bay the NFC North title. A win by Minnesota extends us to next week to determine who wins the division. The fact is the Vikes are better on offense (ranked 9th to 21st for GB), better on defense (14th to 23rd), and the better scoring team (7th to 14th for the Packers). They are also a terrific home team winning 16 of their last 19 home games with 15 of those 16 wins coming by at least a TD. Under Zimmer the Vikings are 28-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or less. This has been a tough place for Green Bay to play as their last win in Minnesota was back in 2015. Lay it with the Vikings here. |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona +9.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Seahawks continue to win but also continue to play close games with 10 of their 11 wins coming by 8 points or less. Their miniscule +26 point differential means they have an average winning margin of +2 PPG. Seattle’s injuries are also mounting and we think this will be a very tough game for Seattle. Starting DE Clowney and starting safety Diggs are both doubtful. Starting DT Woods has also just been suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s PED policy. The Seahawk defense ranks 27th overall and 30th in pass defense and we have no doubt that Arizona will be able to score points and keep up in this one. The Cards picked up some confidence last week putting up 38 points vs Cleveland in a win with QB Murray hitting 9 different receivers for receptions. Seattle won the first meeting but the stats were almost identical with each team running 55 offensive snaps and the Seahawks outgaining the Cards by just 19 yards. Arizona is now 4-1-1 ATS this year as a road dog while Seattle is just 4-2 SU at home this year with their wins coming by 1, 1, 6 in OT, and 7 points. Their once vaunted home field advantage has dissipated as the Seahawks are just 10-11-1 ATS their last 22 home tilts. Seattle has a massive game with San Francisco so while a win is needed, a look ahead is not out of the question. This NFC West division game stays close |
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12-22-19 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 49 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET There will be plenty of points scored here between these two AFC North rivals. In the last meeting these two teams combined for 65 total points which easily eclipsed the total of 47. Baltimore put up 395 total yards in that game while the Browns put up a season high 530 yards and their second highest scoring output of 40-points. Baltimore has plenty to play for with revenge and an opportunity to clinch the 1st seed in the AFC with a win. The Ravens have the #1 efficiency offense in the NFL, #1 in yards per point scored (12.2) and first in scoring offense averaging 33.7PPG. The dynamic Baltimore offense has scored 40+ in four of their last six game and could easily get to that number here against a Browns D that is in the bottom half of the NFL in efficiency ratings. Cleveland just gave up 38-points last week to a Cardinals offense that was averaging just 20.9PPG (22nd) going into that contest. The Browns offense has been trending up since mid-November as they averaged just 19PPG prior to November 12th but have since averaged 25.2PPG. Cleveland does average 5.7 yards per play which is 14th in the NFL and we know they have enough weapons on offense to put up 21 or more in this contest. When you combine these two teams away/home Over/Under records this year they are a profitable 9-5 for the season. This game goes OVER the total rather easily. |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +1.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +1.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 4 PM ET This line opened Vikings -3 and the vast majority of bets have come in on Minnesota this week (currently 77%) yet the line dropped off the key number of 3 down to -2.5. That tells us that despite the heavy tickets on the Vikes, the heavy money has come in on the Chargers and we agree LA is the play here. Let’s not forget this Charger team is much better than their 5-8 record and they were in the AFC Championship game last year with many of the same players on the team this year. They are +71 YPG on the year and +0.8 YPP. Their point differential is also +38 on the year which makes them one of only 2 teams with a losing record that is plus in the point differential (Indy is +1). They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents and all of their 8 losses have come by 7 or less. They are off a confidence boosting 45-10 win @ Jacksonville last year. Their last 2 home games they whipped Green Bay 26-11 outgaining the Packers by 258 yards and a 7 point loss vs KC in a game they outgained the Chiefs by 130 yards. Minnesota is coming off a division win over the Lions and they have a gigantic game vs the Packers on deck. It is their 2nd trip to the west coast in the last 3 weeks (lost by 7 @ Seattle two weeks ago). Minnesota has been great at home (6-0 record) but they are just 3-4 on the road with their wins coming against the Giants, Lions, and Cowboys, all losing teams. While the Chargers are also a losing team, we feel they are the top below .500 team out there and this is a dangerous spot for Minnesota. We think LA wins this game outright. |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Over 45 NY Jets @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:20PM ET – Our analytics say this game is going to be a higher scoring game. On the season the Jets offense has some less than appealing statistics, but they have scored 22 or more points in 4 of five and 34 points in three of those games. New York’s yards per play numbers are low but their yards per point average of 15.6Y.P.P.T is only slightly below league average. The Jets have nothing to lose at this point so expect them to open the playbook here on national TV against the marquee Ravens. New York has some impressive overall defensive numbers but the offenses they’ve faced has inflated those statistics. Against a few of the good offenses they’ve faced they’ve given up a ton of yards and points. Versus Dallas, who has similar numbers to the Ravens offense, the Jets allowed 400 total yards, 26 first downs and 22-points. The next best offenses they lined up against were the Patriots and Eagles who they gave up over 30-points to in each game. The Jets have some injuries on the defensive side of the football and are not facing the most diverse offense in the NFL with QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is 1st in average points scored per game at 33.1PPG, 2nd in total yards per game at 408.2YPG and 1st in rushing at 200.9RYPG. The Ravens offense had scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games before a pair of 20+ outings against two solid defenses of the Bills and 49ers. Our math model projects a Ravens win 32-17 or 49 total points being scored. We couldn’t agree more. |
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12-09-19 | Giants +10.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th. He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills). The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do. Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out. He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games. Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go. The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game. They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week. The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here. This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here. Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points. Take the points here. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle. We agree with the move and like the Rams here. Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota. Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record. In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings. The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season. The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL). Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona. These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home. The gives us value on LA here. IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss. LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record. They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach. This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot. We like the Rams to win this game. |
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12-08-19 | Titans v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home. The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks. Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense. Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of. They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday. The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17. Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3). Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here. Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG. Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5. The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City. They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck. We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 43 Points - Tennessee @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The spread on this game is currently Tennessee (-1) thus the final expected score is 22-21. The Colts have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their 6 games this season and one of those low scoring games was with Brian Hoyer at QB and Jacoby Brissett sidelined with an injury. Now facing a Tennessee defense that is trending downward allowing 25 PPG over their last 5 contests. On the other side of the all, the Titans are playing very well offensively right now. Since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB, Tennessee is averaging 29.5 PPG and they have scored at least 3 offensive TDs in each of his 5 starts. Last week they tallied 42 points and 471 yards vs the Jags. The last two games they’ve scored 77 points. The oddsmakers have yet to catch up to this improvement as the Titans have gone OVER in all 5 of Tannehill’s starts yet this one is set in the low 40’s. We like both offenses to have success here in perfect conditions in the dome and push this one OVER the total rather easily. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6). Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense! The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards. Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco. Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9. They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays. Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami. Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee). The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd. The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%. The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL). That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense. We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game. Lay the points with Dallas. |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 47 Points - Baltimore @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET This number is set a few points higher than our projection and we think the value is on the UNDER here. The main reason it is set higher than it should be is because of Baltimore’s offensive performances over the last month or so. They have scored at least 30 points in 4 straight games. However, 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced rank 22nd or lower in YPP allowed and defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. The one good defense they faced during that stretch was New England and while they did put up 37 points, they really didn’t put up huge stat numbers with 372 yards on 5.8 YPP. They did have a defensive TD in that game as well so based on those numbers they normally would have scored in the mid to upper 20’s in that situation. The only other top 10 YPP defense the Ravens have faced this year is Pittsburgh and they scored 23 in regulation in that game. The Rams are the 4th best YPP defense in the NFL (4.8) and they’ve held 7 of their 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are also excellent at stopping the run allowing only 3.3 YPC on the season which ranks 2nd in the NFL behind only the Jets. That is key vs Baltimore that runs the ball more than another other team in the NFL. Many still view the Rams offense has a high scoring outfit which simply isn’t the case anymore. They are averaging 24 PPG which is down nearly a full TD from last season. They have scored only 29 combined points in their last 2 games vs Pittsburgh and Chicago. They ran the ball 34 times last week (only 18 passes) vs a solid Chicago defense and we feel they’ll have the same gameplan tonight. Run the ball vs a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st allowing 4.4 YPC. That will keep the Baltimore offense off the field which is key. The Raven defense has been keeping teams out of the endzone allowing 20 points or less in 5 straight games and with the Rams struggling on offense, we just don’t see many points tonight. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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11-24-19 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points - Carolina @ New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Carolina offense has been trending downward for weeks now. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their offense was held 16 points or less in 3 of those 4 games. Now that defenses have tape on Panther QB Allen, they have been able to slow him down after a red hot start. In the last 4 games he’s only thrown 3 TD passes. We don’t expect that to change against a very good Saints defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders. On the other side, many still view the New Orleans offense as the high potent, high scoring attack they had last season when they averaged 31 PPG. That really isn’t the case this year as the Saints rank nearly the middle of the pack in scoring (23.8 PPG), total offense (364 YPG) and offensive efficiency (5.7 YPP). In the 5 games Drew Brees has started at QB, they’ve actually averaged fewer points than their season average (22 PPG). Last week they scored 34 points, however on TD came from the defense, and Buc QB Jameis Winston set them up nicely on a few others throwing 4 picks. The Saints only had 328 total yards on 5.1 YPP vs a poor Tampa defense. Now they face a much better Carolina defense that ranks 13th in the YPP allowed. The Panthers do have one weakness on defense and that is their rush defense which means we expect the Saints to run the ball a lot which eats up the clock. These two division rivals know each other very well and we anticipate somewhat of a defensive battle here that lands in the low 40’s. We’ll take the UNDER. |
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11-24-19 | Broncos +4 v. Bills | Top | 3-20 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record. Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game. We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable. Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half. QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards. Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL. Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win. The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee). Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati. Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading. While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned. Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season. Those are the stats of a .500 type team. Buffalo struggles to score. If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG. Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle. The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less). Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less. We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning. Take the points. |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points. |
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11-17-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Ravens | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high. Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win. Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%. The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards. The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball. In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air. We think Houston can do just that. Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored. Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona. The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright. Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game. In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less. We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points. |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over the Total - Seattle @ San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET This Seattle team is a complete 180 from the teams they had a few years ago that focused on defense and simply controlling the game on offense. This year’s team has a poor defense (27th in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders) and a very good offense (3rd most efficient per Football Outsiders). They need to try and win higher scoring games because their defense can’t stop other teams. The Seattle defense has allowed 28 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Even with that, the Seahawks won 4 of those 5 games which tells you what they can do offensively. The SF defense has been very good however some of that is most likely due to the offenses they’ve faced. In fact, of the last 8 teams they’ve faced, not one ranks in the top half of the NFL in offensive efficiency (yards per play). Tonight they face a Seattle offense that ranks in the top 7 in total offense, offensive efficiency, and points scored. They are also facing the hottest QB in the NFL at this moment as Russell Wilson has the highest QBR in the league and has thrown 22 TD’s and just 1 interception on the year. In their most recent game the Niner defense showed some flaws vs an Arizona offense with a rookie QB (Cards had 25 points and 400+ yards). Seattle will put up points tonight. San Fran will do the same vs this porous Seattle defense. If we throw out their game @ Washington that was played in a monsoon, the 49ers have scored at least 24 points in all but one game this year. With this spread set at SF -6, the expected score tonight would be around 26-20 or 27-21. We think both teams top those projected offensive scoring numbers and we take this one OVER the total. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here. Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here. There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland. We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them. That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well. We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season. Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record. They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game. They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them. The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year. Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense. Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins. Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well. We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday. We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team? Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation. Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo). The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite! Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday. |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 48 Points - LA Chargers @ Oakland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We expect to see a back and forth scoring game tonight. Oakland’s offense is solid averaging 6.2 YPP which is 3rd in the NFL behind only Dallas and KC. They had scored at least 24 points in 5 straight games including 31 points (400+ total yards) last week here vs Detroit. Their offense rates 5th in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders. They are a very good running team (4.8 YPC good for 8th in the NFL) and QB Derek Carr is quietly having a very good season now that he’s healthy (71% completions, 1,980 yards passing, 13 TD’s, and just 4 interceptions). The problem is their defense stinks. They’re going to need to score a fair amount of points to win games. The Raiders are allowing 6.3 YPP which is better than ONLY Cincinnati this season. Last week Detroit roasted this defense for a ridiculous 7.6 YPP. Three weeks ago Green Bay averaged almost 9.0 YPP in their game vs Oakland. We don’t see them slowing down a Charger offense that ranks 9th in the NFL in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) and put up 442 yards on Green Bay last week. The Chargers had 26 points in the game but could have had more as they got up 26-3 and went conservative in the 4th quarter. As for the Charger defense, they played very well last week but they also caught Green Bay in a terrible spot on the road a week after beating KC on the road. Aaron Rodgers even admitted his team may have been reading their press clippings and came out flat. The 5 teams they faced leading into their GB game were Chicago, Tennessee, Pittsburgh (back up QB), Denver, and Miami, all poor offenses. Those teams rank 18, 26, 27, 28, and 30 in scoring offense and 22, 23, 27, 28, and 31 in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders). Oakland will be the most efficient offense they have faced this season. This line is around a pick-em which tells us the final score should be 24-24 or in that range. We expect both of these teams to top 24 tonight and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th! They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back. They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game. The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition. They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston. They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers. Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston. On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well. On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL. This team is better than their 3-4 record. Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense). Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati. The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG. That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season. Oakland wins and covers at home. |
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10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love the value here with the Jets. This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored. We just don’t see that. This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5. In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football. They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers. The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses. We often see teams play much better off games like this. Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week. We definitely have that in this game. Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas. Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion. We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game. They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense). They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season. Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position. Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9. The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense. They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that. He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season. Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed. They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points. QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted. In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception. He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games. In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown. That’s it. He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win. Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one. |