Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-30-22 | Reds +111 v. Cubs | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +110 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Reds have had a solid road trip with a 3-2 record including taking 2 of 3 @ San Francisco. These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series and we like Cincinnati to take the finale. Despite the split thus far, the Reds have outhit the Cubs in both games piling up 24 hits so far in this series. We like the pitching match up here for Cincinnati with Ashcraft on the mound, a pitcher that none of the Cubs hitters have ever seen. Ashcraft was called up in late May and allowed just 3 ER’s through his first 4 starts. He then had a few rough outings but impressed us last week when he bounced back and pitched great @ San Francisco (8 IP, 2 ER’s, and 8 strikeouts). His ERA on the season is 3.27 and his xERA is actually a bit lower at 3.23. He’s make 7 starts this year and the Reds have won 6 of those games. We look for Cincinnati’s offense to have solid success today vs Cubs starter Hendricks. They faced him a month ago and put up 4 runs in 4 innings. The Cincinnati hitters should also be very comfortable facing Hendricks as they’ve had well over 100 plate appearances vs him with a lifetime BA of .328. Hendricks has won just 1 game at home this season and his ERA is north of 5.00. Both bullpens are poor (bottom 5 in MLB) so that’s a crapshoot but we expect Cincinnati to have a cushion heading into the late innings. Since starting the season 3-22, the Reds have actually played near .500 baseball with a record of 23-26 their last 49. The Cubs, on the other hand, are just 14-26 over their last 40 games and their home field advantage has been non-existent with an identical record of 14-26 this year at Wrigley. Take the Reds tonight as a slight money line underdog. |
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06-29-22 | Padres -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego -130 over Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - San Diego just swept Arizona last week at home in a 3 games series outscoring the DBacks 17-7. In last night’s game, the Padres led 6-0 entering the bottom of the 7th and Arizona rallied very late for a 7-6 win vs a normally solid San Diego bullpen. We expect the much better team to bounce back this afternoon with a win. The Padres are 14 games above .500 and have the 3rd best run differential in the N.L. at +63. They are also 24-15 on the road this season. Arizona is 7 games below .500 and they have a run differential of -47, 6th worst in the N.L. The DBacks have a losing home record and are getting outscored 4.5-3.9 per game at Chase Field. Arizona starter Bumgarner has an ERA of 3.72 but hasn’t pitched as well as that might indicate with an xERA of 4.67 and an xFIP of 4.75. San Diego has been much better vs lefties compared to right handers this season especially on the road where they average almost 6 RPG vs south paws. They faced Bumgarner at home last week and put up 6 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings in a 10-4 win. Clevinger gets the start for the Padres and he’s been solid as a stater allowing just 4 ER’s in his 4 starts this year. That includes a game vs Arizona last week in which he allowed 1 ER in 4 innings of work. We look for Clevinger to go 4 or 5 innings and then San Diego’s bullpen (top 10 in ERA and #1 in MLB in WHIP) takes over with a chance to redeem themselves after last night’s debacle. We’ll take the much better team in a bounce back spot at a fairly low money line number. |
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06-28-22 | Reds v. Cubs -113 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -113 vs. Cincinnati Reds, 8 PM ET - We recently played on Thompson and the Cubs when they faced the Yankees in New York and he was shelled early for 5 runs in the 1st inning. Since then he has pitched 12 strong innings, allowing 6 total hits and 1 earned run. He is especially good at home with a 4-0 record and a 1.50 ERA. The Reds will counter with Castillo who has had two bad starts in a row allowing 7 earned runs in 12 innings of work against the Dodgers and D’Backs. When we factor in current hitting metrics for both teams this sets up for a solid win by the home team Cubs. In the Reds last ten games vs. righties they are hitting just .216 with 3.86 runs/9innings. The Cubs in their last 10 vs. right-handed starters are hitting .260 as a team with 4.4 runs/9innings. Back the Cubbies at home with the dominant pitcher on the mound. |
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06-27-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Bigs square off Monday in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. The Sox rank top 5 in runs/9 innings, team batting average and OPS. Boston has averaged 4.81 runs per game this season but in their last ten games they’ve upped that to 5.10. Toronto’s offense ranks in the top nine in runs/9 innings at 4.77, 4th in team average (.255), 3rd OPS, 5th in home runs and 9th in strikeouts. Much like the Red Sox the Jays scoring is up in their last ten games as they average 5.30 runs/9innings which has led to a 9-1 Over streak. The Red Sox will send Connor Seabold to the mound who has yet to make a Big League start this season and he couldn’t be in a worse situation facing this red-hot Blue Jays lineup on the road. The Jays have Kevin Gausman slated to start and while he has decent overall numbers with a 3.19ERA, he has given up 7 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings of work, both games the Jays lost with 12 and 13 runs being scored. Plenty of runs in this one! |
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06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - We were on the Giants at home last night (-1.5 runs) and they lost to the Reds 4-2. Tonight we get them in a great spot, off a home loss, facing a poor pitcher, and SF has their top pitcher on the mound. Despite that, we’re getting a very similar price at -1.5 Runs (-115) when last night was right around even money at -1.5. Logan Webb has been outstanding for the Giants with an ERA of 3.26 and an xFIP of 3.15. At home he’s been even better with a 4-1 record and a 2.74 ERA. He’s facing a Cincinnati offense that struggles big time on the road with a batting average of just .211 while scoring only 3 RPG (the Reds average 6 RPG at home). On top of that, the Cincinnati lineup is very unfamiliar with Webb with only 11 total plate appearances (0 hits) giving Webb a big advantage especially early in the game. Despite last night’s win, the Reds have still lost 7 of their last 8 games and have a road record of 12-23. Cincy sends left hander Minor to the mound and he’s been poor this season. He has an ERA of 6.97 and opponents are hitting .271 vs him. The Reds are 1-3 in his 4 starts this season and he’s allowed 7 HR’s already in just 4 appearances for an average of 3 HR’s per 9 innings pitched which is terrible. He’s facing a SF offense that is 4th in MLB in RPG, 10th in HR’s per 9 innings, and 11th in OPS so this is not a good match up for Minor. When Minor is done for the evening, the Reds back him up with a bullpen that has the worst ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP in the Majors. The Reds road RPG differential is -1.9 on the season so laying 1.5 is not a stretch here. San Fran sits 6 games above .500 and has a run differential of +40 on the season while Cincinnati is 22 games below .500 and has a differential of -77. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
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06-25-22 | A's v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Oakland A’s @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10 PM ET - Two of the worst run producing teams in the Big Leagues face off Saturday and we don’t see either team scoring many runs here. The A’s produce just 3.15 runs/9 innings which is 2nd to last in MLB. They are the worst hitting team at .208, 30th in OPS and 29th in home runs. Kansas City isn’t much better averaging 3.92 runs/9 innings with the 21st worst team average at .237, 25th OPS ranking and rank 28th in home runs. In their last thirteen games the A’s and their opponents have scored more than 9.5 runs just three times. In the Royals last ten games they have combined for over 9 runs with their opponent just once. Oakland really struggles to hit right-handed starters with a .201 team average and 2.73 runs per game. The Royals starter Keller has pitched better than his 1-8 record would indicate and he’s coming off his best game of the season which was against this same A’s team. Keller pitched 7 strong innings versus the A’s allowing just 1 hit and 0 earned runs in the Royals 2-0 win. Jared Koenig will take the mound for the A’s with a 1-2 record on the season and a 6.59 ERA. Koenig has inflated numbers with two of his starts coming against the Red Sox and Braves who are 5th and 8th in runs scored per game. His best outing of the season came against this Royals team when he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 0 earned runs and just 2 hits. The numbers don’t add up and we can’t see either team scoring many runs in this setting. |
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06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#960 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Giants are back home after losing 3 of 4 @ Atlanta. However, all 3 losses in that series were by 1 run and San Francisco actually outhit the Braves and had more men on base despite coming up short in 3 of 4 games. Alex Cobb is on the hill for the Giants and he is pitching well above what his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 5.62 on the season yet his xERA is 2.25 and his xFIP is 2.64 which is the lowest of any starting pitcher on the slate for Friday. He’s been extremely unlucky with a BABIP of .381 and his overall numbers at home are much better than his road numbers. Cincinnati enters this game having lost 7 straight including 6 in a row in their recent home stand. They have allowed an average of over 7 RPG during that 7 games stretch and they’ve given up at least 5 runs in each of those games. Ashcraft gets the call for Cincinnati. The rookie has solid overall numbers but he’s on the decline right now. Over his last 2 starts he’s allowed 10 ER’s in just 9.2 innings on 17 hits. The Giants saw him in late May so they should have a good feel at the plate tonight. When Ashcraft exits, the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in the Majors and the 2nd worst WHIP. The Giants also have an edge at the plate where they rank 4th in MLB in RPG and put up over 5 RPG at home. The Reds are a night and day difference home and away at the plate. At home they average 6 RPG and on the road just 3 RPG to go along with their 11-23 road record. Their road RPG differential is -2 on the season. On the season San Fran has a run differential of +42 while Cincinnati’s is -79. There is a reason this line opened -180 and jumped to above -200 despite Ashcraft having better ERA number than Cobb, who is drastically undervalued. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
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06-24-22 | Nationals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 8 PM ET - Washington will start reliever Paolo Espino and then go with a bullpen mentality throughout this game. Espino has started two games and pitched 8.2 innings while allowing 7 total hits and 3 earned runs. The Nats bullpen is ranked 6th worst in the league with an 4.49ERA, 1.39 WHIP and they’ve give up the 3rd most homeruns on the season at 39 which is bad news facing Texas. The Rangers offensive numbers aren’t great as they rank 17th in runs/9 innings at 4.43 and have a team average of .236 but they are 7th in home runs at 1.23 p/game. Texas is sending right-handed Dane Dunning to the hill who is 1-5 on the season with a 4.38ERA. Dunning has allowed 5 earned runs in 3 of his last five starts, 4 or more four times. We should see the Nationals scoring gradually go up as they are 8th in team average at .252 but average just 4.17 runs/9 innings which is 22nd. In each teams last ten games they have combined with their opponents to average over 9.5 runs per game. We like Over 9 in this one. |
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06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9 runs Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - The Orioles are coming off a rain suspended game in Washington and are in a tough travel situation here. The good news is last night’s starter for the O’s, Tyler Wells, pitched 5 strong innings so the bullpen essentially had the night off if they are needed here. That may not be the case as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound who is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and one of his starts was against the Guardians who are 10th in the Big Leagues in scoring. The White Sox are 20th in runs per/9 innings and really struggle against right-handed pitchers with a .242 team average but they average just 3.77 runs per game against righties. Chicago will send Johnny Cueto to the hill who is much better than his 0-3 record. Cueto has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and he’s faced a brutal schedule with games against four teams (of six) that rank in the top half of the league in runs/9 innings. Baltimore will have a tough time scoring here with a lineup that hits just .225 against right-handers on the season, just .180 their last five games with an average of 2.70 runs per game. Both teams struggle to score runs overall and the current pitching matchup sets up for a solid Under wager. |
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06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - KC won the first 2 games of this series, each by a single run. This game will end KC’s tough west coast trip with their 9th road game in 10 days before they head home to play Oakland on Friday. The Angels bats got hot with 11 runs yesterday but they lost with Detmers on the mound. LA has now lost 6 straight with Detmers as the starting pitcher. If they can keep their bats hot today vs a mediocre KC pitcher, the Angels should be sitting great with Ohtani on the mound. He’s been their most consistent starter with an ERA of 3.28 and an xFIP of just 2.92, the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher on Wednesday. He’s allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. KC will have a much tougher time offensively tonight against Ohtani who has averaged 11.5 K’s per 9 innings while walking just over 2 batters. We look for LA’s bats to put up solid numbers again tonight facing Daniel Lynch who has the 5th highest xFIP of any starting pitcher today and an ERA of 5.19. Lynch is coming off a solid start, however that was vs the weak hitting A’s (worst hitting team in MLB). In his 3 starts prior to that, he allowed 16 ER’s in just 15 innings allowing a whopping 29 baserunners during that 3 game stretch! If he struggles, which we expect, the bullpen is never much help for KC. They have the 3rd worst ERA and worst WHIP in MLB. Overall, KC’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom 5 in ERA, batting average allowed, OBP allowed, and OPS allowed. Because of that weak pitching staff, the Royals need to score runs to have a chance. In fact, in their 25 wins this year (25-42 record) they have averaged 5.7 RPG. That won’t happen tonight vs Ohtani and the Angels. LA prevents what would be an embarrassing sweep at home vs KC and wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
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06-21-22 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 RUNS L.A. Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up with a pair of solid starters in Tyler Mahle for the Reds and Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers. Gonsolin is unbeaten this season at 8-0 with a 1.42 ERA and even though is xFIP is elevated at 3.68, the Reds don’t have a lineup capable of taking advantage. Cincinnati is 16th in runs per game on the season at 4.35, but in their last three games they have produced just 3.33 runs/per game. As a team the Reds hit just .232 against right-handed starters this season, they rank 22nd in overall OPS at .686 and are 18th in strikeouts per game. The Dodgers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 5.02 but recently they’ve struggled to put up runs at 3.67 in their most recent three games. Mahle has pitched better than his 2-5 record and 4.46 ERA. His xERA is 3.23 and his xFIP is 3.83. He has pitched four strong games in a row allowing 4 total earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. In Gonsolin’s last five starts he’s allowed 4 total earned runs and pitched a pair of shutouts with all five games staying below the total. Both teams are missing some key offensive personnel and with reliable starters we can’t see this game getting to 10 runs. |
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06-19-22 | Rangers -145 v. Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Texas Rangers -140 over Detroit Tigers, Sunday 1:40 PM ET - Detroit will come back to earth after their 14 run game against the Rangers on Saturday. The Tigers offense is the worst in the Majors ranking 30th in Runs/9 innings, 27th in team average of .219, 30th in OPS and 30th in home runs per game. Prior to Saturday the Tigers had not scored 5 or more runs in 35 straight games. The Rangers will send right-hander Dane Dunning to the mound who doesn’t have great overall numbers at 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA but his two most recent losses came against Houston and Cleveland, a pair of teams with a combined 73 wins on the season. Detroit hits just .206 against righties on the season and average 2.52 runs per game. Texas should light-up Tigers starter Drew Hutchison who is 0-4 on the year with a 4.58ERA. In games that Hutchison has started the Tigers are 2-8 SU on the year. The Rangers bounce back here! |
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06-18-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies and he’s been outstanding all season. His ERA is 3.48 but his xERA and xFIP are much lower telling us he’s pitching even better than his already solid ERA. He averages 10 K’s per 9 innings and just 1 walk so baserunners will be few for the Nationals on Saturday. Nola has faced current Washington hitters for nearly 100 career plate appearances and held them to a batting average of only .190. The Washington offense ranks 22nd in RPG, 20th in OPS, and 28th in HR’s. At home they average just 3.7 RPG and vs right handers that drops to 3.0 RPG. Gray is on the hill for the Nats and while he’s pitched better over his last few games he’s been a bit lucky to keep his ERA at 4.33. His FIP is 5.43 and he’s stranded 83% of the batters which have reached base which is well above the league average of 70% meaning his ERA could be quite a bit higher had he not gotten a bit lucky with his LOB% numbers. His ERA at home is north of 7.00 and he’s struggled with control walking over 4 per 9 innings. Gray gives up a ton of HR’s (2 per 9 innings) which is a terrible match up vs this red hot Philadelphia offense that is 3rd in MLB averaging 1.33 HR’s per game. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games and over the last 10 they have a batting average of .289 while averaging 6 RPG. Philly has won 10 straight games vs the Nationals and 12 of the last 13 in Washington. We like the Phillies to win this one by 2+ runs vs the struggling Nationals who have an 11-24 record at home this season. |
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06-17-22 | White Sox +146 v. Astros | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox +145 over Houston Astros, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been rolling up big numbers as of late scoring nearly 7 RPG over their last 10. They just outscored the Tigers 27-6 in their 3 game sweep and they’ve scored at least 8 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They are the #1 hitting team in MLB vs left handers and they face southpaw Valdez tonight for Houston. The Sox rank 1st in batting average vs lefties at .294, 1st in OPS, and average 6.5 RPG on the season. Over their last 10 games, Chicago has put up 11.5 RPG vs left handers! Valdez has solid numbers this year but current Sox hitters have had his number with a lifetime batting average of .302 in 70+ plate appearances. Giolito takes the mound for Chicago. He’s been very good this year with an ERA 3.88 but his xFIP is 3.27 which is actually lower than Valdez. Giolito has been unlucky as well with a BABIP of .352 so he’s absolutely pitching better than his already solid ERA might indicate. He’s faced current Houston hitters more than 100 plate appearances and held them to a batting average of just .204. Houston has a very good 39-24 record, however they haven’t been very good offensively (20th in RPG & 21st in batting average) and their overall run differential at home is just 3.7-3.2. Chicago has a been better on the road with a 17-14 record and they’ve outscored their opponents away from home this season. We think this is a great spot for a significant underdog to pick up a win. |
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06-17-22 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - Let’s face it, the Braves may score enough runs to push this game Over the number. Atlanta has been on fire with 14 straight wins and the offense has been sensational. The Braves have scored 42 runs in their last five games alone and have averaged 7.21PPG during this winning streak. Atlanta is 7th in runs/9 innings at 4.84, 11th in team average at .249 and 1st in OPS and 2nd in home runs at 1.53 per game. The Braves should have plenty of scoring opportunities against Cubs starter Keegan Thompson who has struggled in 3 straight starts, most recently giving up 5 runs to the Yankees in one inning of work. The Cubs pitchers have allowed 6, 19, 12, 4, 18 and 8 runs in their last six games. The Cubs should also get their fair share of scoring opportunities against Charlie Morton of the Braves who is 4-3 on the year with an ERA of 5.67. In his last four starts Morton has allowed a total of 16 runs, 24 hits in 20.1 innings of work. Chicago has scored 14 total runs in their last three games and should contribute enough in this game to push this Over the number. |
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06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -125 vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-9 record and the 2nd best total run differential in the Big Leagues at +49 runs. The Mets offense is one of the best in MLB ranking 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in overall average (.263) and 6th in OPS at .740. New York will send Tylor Megill to the mound who is 4-2 on the season with a 4.50ERA. The Mets had won 5 straight games with Megill as the starter before two bad outings in his two most recent starts. The Brewers struggling offense doesn’t pose much of a threat in this game and we like Megill to get back on track. Milwaukee is averaging 4.41 runs/9 innings which ranks 16th in the league and have a team batting average of .231 which is 25th. Milwaukee is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games and they’ve been shutout four times in that stretch and scored 4 or less runs nine times. Ashby has pitched well in spots for Milwaukee but he is coming off 4.2 innings of work against Washington in which he gave up 13 hits and 6 earned runs. The Brewers got a big win yesterday but had their best pitcher on the mound in Burnes who allowed just 5 hits. In a game we may only need 4 runs to win we like the much better offense of the Mets. |
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06-15-22 | Twins -135 v. Mariners | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -135 over Seattle, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Twins are coming off a 5-0 loss here last night and we expect a bounce back. They’ve been solid coming off a loss winning over 60% of their games this year in that situation winning by an average score of 5.2-3.9. Seattle is in the opposite situation here as they have struggled to win just 37% of their games coming off a win this season. Minnesota send their ace Sonny Gray to the mound this afternoon. He’s coming off the DL after a pectoral strain but seems to be fine after throwing a simulated game over the weekend. He’s been fabulous this season holding opposing hitters to a batting average of .187 with a WHIP of 0.98. He’s averaging 10.5 K’s per 9 innings which walking just 2.5. Over his last 5 starts he’s struckout 34 batters while allowing just 7 walks. Gray has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any start this season. Gonzales is the starter for Seattle and while his overall ERA is solid at 3.63 he is due for some serious regression. His xERA is over 5.00 and his xFIP is nearly 5.00 telling us he is not pitching as well as his ERA might indicate. Unlike Gray, his K to walk ratio is not good (5.5 to 3.5) and current Minnesota hitters have a lifetime batting average of .350 vs Gonzales. The Twins have the much better overall offense here ranking in the top 8 in both batting average and OPS. The M’s were a bit lucky yesterday scoring 5 runs on just 6 hits and we like Minnesota to bounce back and pick up the win in today’s series finale before their day off tomorrow. |
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06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 run -105 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - The Jays have been one of the best hitting teams in the Big Leagues this season with an average of 8.49 hits per game. In their last three games the Blue Jays have pounded out an average of 11.67 hits per game which includes 19 hits last night against the O’s. In their last nine games the Jays have scored 6 or more runs seven times while averaging 7.2 runs per game. Toronto has a top 10 offense in terms of runs scored per 9 innings, team batting average .257, rank 2nd in OPS and 8th in home runs. Conversely, Baltimore averages just 4.05 runs per 9 innings which ranks 25th in the league, hit .230 as a team (26th) and are 25th in OPS. The Orioles also strike out 9.13 times per game which is 26th in the Bigs. Baltimore will send Lyles to the mound to slow down the Jays offense, but we don’t see that happening. Lyles has given up 10 earned runs in his last ten innings of work on 17 hits and that was against Kansas City and Seattle who both rank in the bottom half of MLB in hits per game. Toronto has Yusei Kikuchi scheduled to take the bump for the Jays, who hasn’t been great with a 2-2 record, but the Lefty should have success against this O’s team that is hitting just .230 against Lefties this season and averaging just 3.66 runs/9 innings. Toronto has a +34-run differential on the year which ranks them 9th best in the league. Baltimore has a net differential of -38 runs on the season which is 21st. |
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06-13-22 | Twins v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota vs Seattle, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these teams were shutout yesterday which gives us some value here. We have this total set closer to 9 with our power ratings. Prior to yesterday’s 6-0 loss vs Tampa Bay, the Twins were averaging almost 7 RPG their prior 8 contests. Before Sunday’s 2-0 loss vs Boston, the Mariners were averaging almost 5 RPG their previous 9 games. Both teams are averaging more than 8.5 total RPG this season in their contests and over the last 10 games Minnesota games are averaging 11.6 total RPG and Seattle games are averaging 9.2 total RPG. Each starter is due for a regression as their ERA’s are lower than both their xERA’s and xFIP’s. Minnesota’s Archer has an xFIP of 5.10 and Seattle’s Flexen has an xFIP of 4.98 which is a solid indicator that neither is pitching as well as their actual ERA’s might indicate. Current players on both teams are hitting over .300 lifetime vs each of these 2 starting pitchers. Flexen has faced Minnesota once this season and allowed 3 ER’s in 4 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks. Archer has not faced Seattle yet this season. Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and Minnesota relievers have allowed the 2nd most HR’s this season (36) while the Seattle bullpen has allowed the 4th most (32). We like this game to get to at least 9 total runs. |
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06-12-22 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-18 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees, 1:35 PM ET - Granted the Yankees are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 4.90 runs per game but the Cubs are 18th at 4.29 runs per game and this situation warrants an Under wager. It all starts with the pitchers slated to take the bump here with Keegan Thompson for the Cubs and Jameson Taillon. Taillon is 6-1 on the season with 62.2 innings pitched and in three of his last four starts he’s gone 7 or more innings. He has a season ERA of 2.73 and has allowed more than 3 runs just one time this season which was his last outing so expect a focused effort here. What makes Taillon especially hard to score runs on is his base-on-balls percentage of .86 which is one of the better averages in the Big Leagues. The Cubs will counter with Thompson who is also 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.17 and WHIP of 1.14. Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late averaging just 2.2 runs per game in their last five games and hitting just .092 with runners in scoring position. Over the course of 3-games, the Cubs currently have the worst team hits per run scored 5.25. At that current rate, if the Cubs get their average hits per game of 8.16 they’ll score under 2 runs in this one. We like a lower scoring game here. Bet UNDER. |
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06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Phillies are red hot. They’ve won 8 straight and their bats have been smoking to say the least. During their 8 game winning streak they’ve reached at least 6 runs 7 times and they are averaging 7.5 RPG during that stretch. If they get anywhere near that today they should cover this 1.5 easily as the Phillies have their top pitcher Wheeler on the mound. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in his last 6 starts and while his ERA of 3.14 is very good, his xERA 2.83 and his FIP is 2.30 telling us he’s pitching better than his actual ERA this season. He’s been very unlucky with a BABIP (batting average balls in play) of .338 and has very solid numbers despite that. Arizona’s offense ranks 24th in RPG, 29th in batting average and 22nd in OPS. They are just 3-5 on their current 8 game road trip despite playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the first 7 games of that stretch. They’ve averaged just over 4 RPG on this road trip but they’ve been very fortunate as they are averaging just 6.75 hits per game on this road trip. Philly will be facing Bumgarner for Arizona and after a hot start to the season he has been struggling to say the least. After allowing just 4 ER’s in his first 5 starts, Bumgarner has given up 18 ER’s in his last 5 outings. He’s allowed 41 baserunners in his last 29 innings so we look for the Phillies red hot bats to have plenty of opportunities in this game. In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia scored 6 runs in the first 2 innings vs Arizona ace Zach Gallen who had allowed more than 2 ER’s just ONCE all season. The Phillies are 29-29 on the season yet have a run differential of +36. Arizona is 28-32 with a run differential of -44. We think Arizona will struggle offensively today vs Wheeler while Philly will continue their onslaught at the plate. Lay the 1.5 runs (-115) in this game. |
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06-10-22 | Cubs v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’ll lay -1.5 runs (-120) with the Yanks here who have the largest run differential in MLB at +104 which equates to an average score of 4.9 – 3.0. At home they’ve beaten teams by an average of 2 RPG and over their last 10 games their margin of victory is +3.1 RPG. NY has the best record in the Majors at 41-16 and at home they are 23-7. They are red hot offensively right now averaging 6.5 RPG over their last 10 and they’ve gotten to at least 10 runs in 3 of their last 6 games. They’ll face Cubs left hander Miley in this one who is just coming off they DL with a bad shoulder. He’s pitched in only 3 games this season and while his ERA is 3.38 his xFIP is much higher indicating he’s due for a regression. The Cubs step into this game 10 games under .500 and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are facing Yankee starter Severino who has an ERA of 2.95 but an xERA of 2.60 and NY has won 8 of the 10 games he has started with 7 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. NY has the much better bullpen as well in this game. They Yankees have dominated inferior opponents at home with a 69-26 record their last 95 vs teams with a losing record. The Cubs are just 21-47 their last 48 games overall vs a team with a winning record. We like NY to win this one by 2+ runs at home tonight. |
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06-09-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -1.5 on Run Line over Colorado, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies send left hander Gomber to the hill who has been a disaster as of late. In his last 2 starts, spanning 6.1 innings, he has allowed 17 ER’s on 17 hits! ON the road this season Gomber has an ERA of almost 7.00 and he’s won just 1 game away from home this year. SF has done well vs lefties averaging just under 6 RPG at home this season. They’ve also hit Gomber very well in the past as current Giant players have a lifetime average of .341 vs the left hander. When he exits, enter the 2nd worst bullpen in all of baseball with an ERA of 5.02. It’s not just the “thin air” in Denver that has caused the poor numbers from the Colorado relievers as their ERA away from home is worse than it is at Coors Field. The SF offense should have a field day at home this afternoon. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb who has a solid 3.82 ERA, however his xERA and xFIP are both lower meaning he’s actually pitching better than his current numbers. He’s a perfect 3-0 at home this season and the Giants have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Last year Webb was 11-3 with an ERA of 2.97 so he has been extremely solid for this team. He’s facing a Colorado team that has only 8 road wins all season which is tied for least in MLB. Their offense falls off a cliff on the road where they average just 3 RPG and only 2.7 RPG vs right handed pitchers. Colorado is getting beat by an average score of 5.5 – 3.0 on the road this season. They are also only 17-35 their last 52 trips to San Francisco. We like the Giants to roll in this one. |
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06-08-22 | A's v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Oakland vs Atlanta, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - This total opened 9 which is very close to where we had our power ratings set at 8.7. Now it has moved up to 9.5 so we are getting nearly a full run of value according to our ratings so we’ll grab the Under here. Oakland continues to struggle on offense. After scoring 2 runs yesterday, they have now scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. They are facing a pitcher nobody on the Oakland roster has ever seen in Ian Anderson. He’s pitched better than his overall numbers this year as his ERA is 4.70 but his xERA is 3.63. Anderson had a 3.58 ERA for Atlanta last year in 24 starts which is very close to his xERA this year telling us that is about where he should be. Oakland will send rookie Jared Koenig to the hill for his first ever MLB appearance. His numbers for AAA Las Vegas have been very impressive with a 2.21 ERA and a K to walk ratio of 10.5 to 2.5 per 9 innings. He has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts for Vegas. We expect Atlanta to struggle offensively early on especially with none of their hitters having any experience vs Koenig. Over the last 10 games for each of these teams combined (20 games total) only 6 have gone Over 9 runs. The current total of 9.5 is set too high and we like the Under. |
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06-07-22 | A's v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta -1.5 on Run Line over Oakland, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta comes home off a red hot run @ Colorado sweeping the Rockies in a 4 games series and outscoring them 30-16. Oakland, on the other hand, has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their bats continue to struggle scoring 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. Those numbers won’t improve vs Atlanta’s Kyle Wright who has allowed 1 ER or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wright has an ERA of 2.41 and is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of just .191. Not one hitter on Oakland’s roster as ever faced Wright giving him a big advantage in this game. While Oakland bats are ice cold, Atlanta’s hitters have been on a roll with a batting average of .280 scoring an average of 5.7 RPG over their last 10. They have been very solid vs lefties all season long averaging 5.2 RPG. They are facing left hander Irvin in this game and while his overall numbers look solid, he is due for a regression. Irvin’s ERA is 2.96, however his xERA is 5.06 and his xFIP is 4.39 which gives us an indication of how he’s actually pitching. His numbers on the road haven’t been anywhere near his home numbers with an ERA of 5.09 away from home this season. While Oakland’s current roster has never faced Wright, Atlanta’s roster has had huge success vs Irvin with a whopping .588 batting average in his career. We’re also backed up by the much better bullpen in this game (6th in ERA compared to Oakland 20th in ERA). We have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much hotter hitting team in this game. We’ll lay the 1.5 runs at -115. |
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06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle vs Houston, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - These 2 A.L. West teams have already met 9 times with 6 going Under the total. Only once have they played a game this season that scored more than 9 runs and in 6 of the 9 meetings they’ve scored 7 or less. Their 9 meetings this season have averaged 6.3 total RPG. Javier is on the mound for Houston and he’s been lights out. In his 6 starts he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 5 and 1 ER or less 4 times. He completely shut down Seattle the only time he faced them this season not allowing a single ER in a Houston 4-0 win. His ERA at home this season is 0.38 with a WHIP of 0.72! The M’s counter with veteran Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young award with Toronto last season, but he’s been up and down this year. However , he has allowed 4 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and he has not faced Houston this season which is an advantage to him. On top of that, the Astros have really struggled vs left handed pitchers this year hitting just .212 while averaging only 2.9 runs per 9 innings. Houston has been a massive UNDER team this year with 39 Unders and just 15 Overs. Their bats aren’t great (21st in RPG) especially vs lefties as we mentioned but their pitching staff has been outstanding. They are 3rd overall in team ERA and they have the #1 bullpen in MLB with a 2.64 ERA. Dating back to the end of last season, Houston is now 45-16 to the UNDER! Seattle has a poor road record and they’ve struggled offensively away from home with a .225 batting average and 3.6 RPG. Seattle road games have averaged just barely 8 total RPG while Houston home games have averaged 6.4 total RPG. Over the last 10 games, Seattle is averaging less than 8 total RPG and Houston is averaging less than 7 total RPG. We look for another low scoring game tonight. |
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06-05-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
#926 ASA PLAY ON Texas -125 over Seattle, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - Texas starting pitcher Martin Perez has been one of the top pitchers in MLB this season. His ERA is 1.42 and he has not allowed a single HR in 10 starts. After allowing 3 ER’s in each of his first 2 starts back in mid April, Perez has allowed only 4 ER’s in his last 8 starts! He faces a Seattle team that has a record of 11-20 on the road this season and getting outscored by 1 RPG. The M’s have struggled vs left handers especially on the road where they have a batting average of .198 and Perez is allowing opponents to hit just .199 this season. Not a good mix for Seattle. George Kirby has been solid in his first season in the Majors but he’s only pitched 26 career innings. He was very good in his last outing vs light hitting Baltimore but his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 9 ER’s on 16 hits in 10 innings of work. Opponents are hitting a solid .260 vs Kirby and his xERA is higher than his actual ERA. Seattle has the 8th worst bullpen ERA in the Majors while Texas, after a rough start to the season for their relievers, has moved all the way up to 10th in bullpen ERA. Big advantage for Texas pitchers today. The Rangers are playing solid baseball right now winning 7 of their last 11 while Seattle has won only 6 of their last 24 games as a road underdog. Texas gets the win at home. |
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06-04-22 | Nationals v. Reds -124 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -125 over Washington, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Washington picked up the win here last night and we like Cincy to come out on top at home on Saturday afternoon. The Reds have actually played quite well since their start of the season debacle. They began the season winning just 3 of their first 25 games, however since then they have a winning record at 15-11 their last 26 games. They are 9-6 at home during that stretch. The Reds send Mahle to the hill and he is pitching better than he gets credit for. His ERA is 5.53 but his xFIP is 4.28 and his xERA is just 3.63 telling us he’s been unlucky at times this season. He’s actually allowed 2 ER’s or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and he was one of Cincy’s top starters last year with a 3.75 ERA. Lifetime vs hitters currently on Washington’s roster, Mahle has allowed a batting average of just .196. Washington is 10-17 on the road this year and they have not won back to back road games all season! Fedde hits the hill for the Nats and his ERA is 4.60 which is exactly where his xERA sits as well. His WHIP is 1.53 and he’s had trouble with walks (4.5 per 9 innings) and HR’s (1.2 per 9) this season. He’s had big problems with players currently on the Cincinnati roster as they’ve hit .400 lifetime vs Fedde. He’s backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the league, especially on the road where Washington relievers have an ERA of 6.63. While Cincinnati has turned around their season, the Nationals continue to struggle with a 22-47 record their last 60 road games and 7-25 record their last 32 games after a win. The Reds get the home win on Saturday afternoon. |
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06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 on the Run Line over Minnesota, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - There isn’t a hotter offensive team in MLB than Toronto right now and they are facing a Minnesota team that is decimated due to injuries and Covid restrictions. The Jays have won 8 straight games and their offense has put up at least 6 runs in all but one of those games. During that 8 game stretch they are averaging 7 RPG and they’ve done some serious damage vs a number of top notch starting pitchers. This team overall probably isn’t quite as good as their 30-20 record as their run differential isn’t great, however they are red hot right now. As we mentioned they are also facing a Minnesota team that is nowhere near 100% and struggling right now. Two of Minnesota’s better offensive players, Correa and Celestino are out due to Covid. Royce Lewis, hitting .300, just came back from a 12 day hiatus due to injury and had to go right back on the IL so he is not available. Now we add in a number of other key players due to Canada’s Covid policy that players must be vaccinated to enter the country. That takes out starting OF Kepler and 3 pitchers that work out of the Minnesota bullpen all unavailable for this series. The Twins come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games @ Detroit, one of the worst teams in MLB, and Minnesota scored only 2 total runs in their last 3 games vs the Tigers. The Twins have won just 3 of their last 10 games and all 10 of those games were vs KC or Detroit who have a combined record of 37-63! In fact, in a weird scheduling situation, the Twins have faced either Detroit or KC in 15 straight games and prior to that they faced Oakland. So Minnesota has played 18 straight games vs the 3 teams who have the worst records in the American League and they are just 10-8 in those games. They take a big step up in competition here and are facing a solid starting pitcher. Toronto will go with left hander Kikuchi on the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his 9 starts. The Minnesota offense is hitting .167 over their last 10 games vs lefties while averaging less than 1 run per 9 innings. The Twins pulled up Chi Chi Gonzalez from the Minors to make his first MLB appearance this season. He has pitched some at the MLB level but not successfully as his ERA’s over the last 3 seasons were 6.46, 6.86, and 5.29. Now facing a red hot offense we expect him to have problems in this game. Toronto is rolling right now, they are 17-8 at home this season, and Minnesota has too many key players out to hang in this one. We’ll take Toronto at -1.5 on the run line at even money |
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06-02-22 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – San Diego vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - The Padres are struggling to put runs on the board right now. They are coming off a 3 games series in St Louis where they scored a total of 7 runs. They have not topped 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. Going back further San Diego has topped 4 runs just 2 times in their last 15 games! In their last 8 games the Under is 6-0-2. They’ll be facing Adrian Houser for Milwaukee who just shut them down in San Diego last week allowing 1 ER in 6 innings. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole has been great at home this year allowing only 3 RPG. The Brewers have been solid offensively this season, however their kryptonite has been left handed pitchers. For the season they are hitting just .209 vs south paws while averaging 3.7 RPG. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee has hit just .162 vs lefties. They face a good one tonight in Sean Manaea. His overall ERA is 4.02 but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA and xFIP right around 3.50. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his 9 stars and the current Brewer roster has a total of 14 career plate appearances vs Manaea giving him an extra edge here. These 2 just met in San Diego last week in a low scoring series with games totaling 3, 5, and 5 runs. The 2 teams were only able to muster 39 hits combined in 3 games, or just 13 per game. Dating back to last year, 9 of the last 10 meetings have totaled 8 or fewer runs. We like the UNDER tonight in Milwaukee. |
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06-01-22 | Marlins v. Rockies -110 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado -120 over Miami, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET – GAME 2 of a Double Header - Colorado took the series opener on Monday by a final score of 7-1. Miami lost that game decisively with their ace Lopez on the mound and they’ve now won just 2 of their last 10 games. Offense has been a big problem as the Marlins have failed to score more than 4 runs in any of their last 10 games. Even yesterday vs an inexperienced starter for Colorado (Feltner) making his first start at home this season, Miami was only able to score 1 run on 5 hits. On the road this year they have a record of just 9-14 with a batting average of .223 while averaging only 3.5 RPG. They face a pitcher with a high ERA today but the Rockies German Marquez is a veteran whose overall numbers indicate he’s pitching better than his ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP (3.85) are much lower than his overall ERA (6.20) and he’s been very unlucky this season with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .350. He’s been one of the Rockies most consistent starters over the last 5 seasons and current players on the Miami roster are hitting just .216 lifetime vs Marquez. We’ve been looking for a spot to jump on this underrated starter and we feel this is it. Miami hasn’t decided on a starter but we expect Cabrera will be on the mound for the first time this season. He’s made only 7 lifetime appearances in the big leagues and his ERA is nearly 6.00 in those games. His overall ERA is the Minor leagues for his career is a pretty average 4.20. Even if Cabrera doesn’t start we’re good with the Rockies who just get it done at home. They have a batting average of .279 at home this season while averaging 6.4 RPG. The Rockies have twice as many wins at home this season (14) as they do on the road (7) and they’ve topped Miami 7 straight times in Denver. Cabrera will be making his first ever start in the Colorado high altitude and we look for him to struggle. We’re getting a low money line price in our opinion here so we’ll grab Colorado in the -120 range. |
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05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Arizona, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the mound this evening. He’s been lights out all season long with the exception of one outing, his most recent start. He gave up 6 ER’s in just 5 innings of work last week vs KC but prior to that he had allowed 2 ER’s or less in every start (7 starts). Good pitchers bounce back from poor outings and we look for Gallen to pitch very well tonight. Opposing hitters have a batting average of just .170 vs Gallen and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.83. He has faced current Atlanta hitters in 22 total plate appearances so most have not seen him. In those 22 AB’s he has not allowed a hit. He’s facing a light hitting Braves team with a BA of just .232 on the season (22nd in MLB) but on the road Atlanta hits just .212 this season. The Braves will go with a “bullpen game” here starting reliever Spencer Strider. They hope to get 3 or 4 innings out of him and if so they should be in good shape. Strider has been fantastic out of the bullpen this year allowing just 14 hits in 25 innings pitched and 6 ER’s. None of the Arizona hitters have ever faced Strider so he should have a big time advantage the first time through the line up. After he exits, Atlanta has a solid bullpen ranking 10th in ERA, 9th in WHIP and 4th in HR’s allowed. The DBacks offense continues to sit near the bottom of the Majors in RPG (24th) and batting average (29th). They are coming off a 4 game series vs LA Dodgers in which they scored a total of 8 runs. Arizona’s home games are averaging less than 8 total RPG this season and Atlanta’s road games are also averaging less than 8 RPG. We like the UNDER on Monday night. |
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05-29-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -125 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Angels -125 over Toronto, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Toronto has won the first 3 games of this series in LA and we like the Angels to stop the potential sweep today. LA has been the better team all season long. Even with the 3 straight losses, the Angels are 27-21 with a run differential of +43 which is the 2nd best in the American League behind the Yankees. The Jays are 26-20, but they do have a losing record on the road and they have actually been outscored this season by 2 runs. They are the ONLY team in MLB that has a winning record with a negative run differential so they’ve been quite fortunate. Toronto will be facing left hander Sandoval today for the Angels who has been very solid all season long. He has an ERA of 1.79 and he has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his 7 starts. At home Sandoval is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.00. The Blue Jays have struggled vs lefties this season averaging just 3.4 RPG and on the road vs southpaws they have put up only 2.5 RPG on the season. LA has actually outhit Toronto in the first 3 games of this series despite losing all 3 and we look for their bats to put up big numbers today. They’ll be facing Toronto starter Berrios who has an ERA of 4.75 but on the road he’s really had problems with an ERA of almost 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.48. He’s coming off a solid start at home vs Seattle, however in his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 11 ER’s in just 10 innings, both on the road. He’s also struggled vs the hitters on LA as they have a lifetime batting average over .300 vs Berrios. The Angels rank in the top 9 in MLB in RPG (6th), batting average (9th), OPS (2nd) and HR’s per 9 innings (2nd). Ohtani was also back in the LA line up yesterday after missing Friday with a sore back. The Jays rank 25th in RPG and 18th in both batting average and OPS. The Angels also have an edge across the board in all key bullpen stats. This one sets up very nicely for the motivated home team looking to avoid a sweep. |
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05-28-22 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Pittsburgh vs San Diego, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these offenses have been below average all season long and both are struggling as we speak. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in RPG, 27th in batting average and OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. San Diego sits at the middle of the pack (15th) in runs scored but that doesn’t match up with their other key stats so they’ve been a bit lucky in that regard. The Padres are 23rd in both batting average and OPS and 27th in HR’s per 9 innings. Over their last 10 games Pittsburgh is averaging 3 RPG and San Diego is putting up just 3.3 RPG. The Pirates have topped 4 runs only ONCE in their last 14 games and they are averaging just 2.5 RPG during that stretch and that includes a 10 run output vs Colorado. San Diego has topped 3 runs only 3 times in their last 10 games. San Diego sends their ace to the mound today. Joe Musgrove has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his 8 starts this season and opponents are hitting just .208 against him. At home this year his ERA is 1.80 with a WHIP of 0.75. He always brings some extra juice vs the Pirates who traded him to the Padres in 2021. In his only meeting with Pittsburgh this season, Musgrove allowed 1 ER in 7 innings of work. JT Brubaker is on the hill for Pittsburgh. His overall numbers are better than his 4.64 ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP are both lower than his ERA and he's allowing opponents to hit just .222. In his last 7 starts Brubaker has allowed more than 3 ER’s just once and he’s coming off his most impressive outing of the season holding Colorado to 0 ER’s in 6.2 innings. Last night these 2 totaled 7 runs but did so on just 11 hits. Tonight we see a pitcher’s duel and this one stays UNDER the total. |
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05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#977 ASA 9* TOP PLAY ON Houston -1.5 on Run Line over Seattle, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is -200 at most places in this one and by laying -1.5 runs we can knock that down to -120. Seattle is struggling right now to say the least. They have lost 6 straight games and 8 of their last 9. They have been outscored by 19 runs over their last 6 games or an average of -3.2 RPG. They were just swept at home in a 2 game series vs Oakland who has a 19-28 record on the season and they were outhit 21 to 9 in those 2 games. Now they face one of the top pitchers in MLB in Justin Verlander so we don’t expect their offense to catch fire here. Verlander has allowed just 7 ER’s in 8 starts this season and over his last 3 starts he has not allowed a single ER in 19 innings of work. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.72 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .129 vs Verlander. He’s faced Seattle twice this season and the Astros have won those 2 games by a combined score of 11-2. In those 2 starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s in 14.2 innings with 11 K’s and no walks. Flexen is on the mound for Seattle and his numbers aren’t great this season. His ERA is almost 5.00 and opposing teams have a batting average of .275 when he is pitching. While Verlander is peaking right now, Flexen has struggled his last 3 starts allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings. He has made 8 starts this year and Seattle has won 1 of those games. When the 2 starters exit, Houston has a huge edge in the bullpen leading MLB in ERA while Seattle is 25th. Houston is 4-2 this year vs Seattle and in their most recent series in early May, the Astros outscored the M’s 14-2 in 3 games. Seattle has a -29 run differential on the season while Houston sits at +47 (3rd in MLB behind Dodgers and Yankees). We like Houston to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-27-22 | Blue Jays -117 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toronto -115 over LA Angels, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Toronto picked up the win here last night topping the Angels 6-3. That’s 6 wins in the last 9 games for the Jays and we like them to get another one tonight. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but we expect them to have success tonight vs Silseth, a rookie starter making just his 3rd appearance in the Majors. He’s started 2 games thus far, both vs Oakland whose offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in a number of key categories. He didn’t allow a run in the first game and then the A’s got to him with 3 ER’s in just 4.1 innings last week. Silseth allowed 8 baserunners in that game. Prior to his 2 starts vs Oakland, he had never pitched above AA level and had pretty average numbers including in college where his ERA 4.35 and 5.55 in his 2 seasons at Tennessee and Arizona. The Blue Jays should have a solid edge on the mound with Manoah who has a 1.62 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his starts this year and has walked just 5 batters in his last 7 starts. He had an ERA of just 3.22 in his 20 starts last year so Manoah has been very consistent. LAA has struggled offensively as of late averaging a full 1 RPG less over their last 10 compared to their season average. They have won just 3 of their last 9 games and could be without one of their top offensive performers tonight as Ohtani injured his back pitching last night. The bullpen numbers of these 2 teams are fairly even for the season, however Toronto relievers have been much better of late with an ERA of 3.00 and a batting average allowed of .195 over their last 10 games compared to the Angels 5.08 ERA and .250 BA allowed. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
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05-26-22 | Guardians v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Cleveland vs Detroit, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - Weather is not looking conducive for scoring in this one. Light rain and 10+ MPH winds blowing in from center field. Detroit’s offense has been poor all season ranking dead last in RPG and OPS. The Tigers are averaging just 2.8 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Cleveland has OK overall offensive numbers but over their last 10 games they are hitting just .199 as a team and on the road vs lefties just .193 for the season. They’ll be facing one of the top left handers in MLB tonight in Tarik Skubal. He has allowed just 7 ER’s over his last 7 starts and in 5 of those starts he has held his opponent scoreless. He faced Cleveland on May 20th and held the Indians scoreless through 5 innings before leaving after taking a line drive off his lower leg. He is fine and will make the start tonight. Cleveland will be going with a “bullpen” game tonight. They will start lefty Pilkington but we only expect a few innings from him. He’s been solid in his first year in the Majors with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.04 mainly out of the bullpen. Nobody in Detroit’s line up has ever faced him giving Pilkington a nice edge early in the game and with an early exit expected we don’t anticipate the Tiger hitters facing him more than once or twice in this one. After he exits, Detroit’s bullpen has very good numbers. They rank 2nd in ERA in MLB and 2nd in WHIP so we expect Cleveland’s offense to continue their struggles. The Tigers are 29-13 to the UNDER this season and we expect another low scoring game tonight. |
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05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
pitchers with action: #958 ASA PLAY ON San Diego -130 over Milwaukee, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series but the Padres have outhit the Brewers in both games. In last night’s 4-1 loss to Milwaukee, the Brewers managed 4 runs on just 5 hits while San Diego had 8 hits. We expect the Brewers to struggle to find hits again this afternoon with the Padres sending Yu Darvish to the mound. He’s been fantastic at home this year with a 2-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. He’s allowed only 13 baserunners at home this year in 20 innings of work. His lifetime ERA at Petco Park is just 3.12 and he averages 11 K’s per game at home per 9 innings. San Diego had to face Milwaukee ace and Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes yesterday. They actually fared quite well with 7 baserunners in 6 innings. Today they face lefty Ashby who is mainly a reliever and gets a few starts now and then. He has much better lifetime numbers out of the bullpen compared to when he starts (3.60 ERA to 4.60 ERA). On top of that, the Padres have been very successful vs left handers this season averaging 5.5 RPG, a full 1 RPG more than vs right handed pitchers. Once the starters exit the Padres have the better bullpen numbers overall with an ERA close to even with Milwaukee but a lower WHIP, opponent batting average, and opponent OB percentage. That edge gets even greater with Brewer closer Hader not available in this series. Take San Diego at home this afternoon. |
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05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Laying -1.5 runs here knocks the money line down to about even money. Arizona throws their ace Zac Gallen vs the light hitting Royals tonight. Gallen has been fantastic all season and we just don’t see KC’s offense doing much of anything tonight. Gallen has allowed just 5 ER’s all season in 7 starts for an ERA of 1.14. He’s been even better at home allowing 2 ER’s in 24 innings for an ERA of 0.75. The Royals offense has struggled ranking 24th in runs scored per game and their run differential of -60 is the worst in the American League. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 6 of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. Arizona’s offensive numbers for the season are not impressive due to a terrible start to the season at the plate. They’ve looked much better as of late averaging over 5 RPG through their last 10 games. They’ve hit .270 and scored nearly 7 RPG during that 10 game stretch vs right handed pitchers. Tonight they face righty Johnathan Heasley who has been a career minor leaguer for the most part. He has a total of 23 IP in the Majors in his 5 year career. This season he has pitched 8.1 innings, walked 7 batters and allowed 15 base runners. The Royals lost both of his starts this year by a combined score of 6 to 1. He has an ERA this season of 4.32 but he’s been rather lucky has his xERA is above 6.00. If Heasley has a short stint tonight, the KC bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the Majors in ERA and over their last 10 games the relievers have an ERA of almost 7.00. We like Arizona’s offense to have success tonight while KC will struggle to put numbers up vs one of the top starters in MLB. We’ll lay 1.5 runs in this one. |
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05-23-22 | Phillies -113 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -115 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - After losing 3 straight games, Philly has some nice momentum heading to Atlanta after beating the Dodgers yesterday. They have not been on the road since May 15th so the Phillies should be well rested. In their most recent road trip (May 12 – 15) they took 3 out of 4 games from the Dodgers in LA. Atlanta is off a loss on Sunday @ Miami. This will be their first home game since May 15th after a long 6 game road trip so a tougher spot for the host here. The Phillies should have a solid offensive showing here vs left hander Davidson who is making just his 2nd appearance of the season. He’s thrown only 7.2 innings this season and allowed 13 baserunners during that stretch. Davidson has had control problems walking a whopping 17 in his 29 career innings in his short MLB career. The Phillies line up has been very successful vs lefties this season averaging over 6 RPG their last 10. On the road for the season they having a team batting average of .288 vs LH’s while putting up 7.7 RPG! The Braves might have problems on offense in this one. They are hitting just .222 overall this season (24th in MLB) and they are getting outscored at home this season. They will face Wheeler who is rounding into form after a rough start to the season. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 3 ER’s in 26 innings on only 17 hits. He’s pitching much better right now than his 4.26 ERA and over the last 2 seasons Wheeler has been the Phillies ace with an ERA’s of 2.78 and 2.92. We’re getting the better offense with their ace on the mound here basically at even money. We’ll take Philadelphia on Monday. |
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05-22-22 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Washington vs Milwaukee, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Washington offense has scored a grand total of 1 run in this series thus far in 2 games. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games and those 9 games have totaled less than 8.5 runs 6 times. The chances of them getting on track offensively in this one are not good. Peralta is on the mound for Milwaukee and his ERA is 3.52 on the season but he’s pitching much better than that right now. He had 1 poor outing in mid April allowing 6 ER’s in just 3 innings vs St Louis throwing off his season long numbers. Since that outing he has allowed 5 ER’s in his last 5 starts. In those 5 starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 6 walks. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole is allowing just 2.8 RPG at home and with Washington struggling right now, that trend should continue. The Nats will throw Aaron Sanchez who doesn’t have great seasonal numbers with a high ERA but he’s pitching better than that. His ERA is 7.94 which is by far the highest of his career, but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this season is 4.50 and his xFIP is 4.49 indicating he’s actually pitching OK this year. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a very high .359 which tells us he’s had some tough luck so far this season. In his career vs current Brewer hitters he’s allowed a batting average of just .222 with on OBA of .291 so very solid. Milwaukee games have stayed under this current total of 8.5 in 4 of their last 5 games including both in this series (6 & 7 total runs). We like the UNDER in this one. |
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05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met last weekend and the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in Chicago. In that series NY outscored the Sox 32 to 15 and out hit them with a batting average of .286 to .231. The Yanks continue to roll with MLB’s best record at 28-10 and the 2nd best run differential at +72 (Dodgers have top run differential). They’ve won 8 of their last 10 but are coming off a rare loss at Baltimore which bodes well for NY as they are 15-3 SU coming off a loss dating back to the end of last season. Yankee ace lefty Cortes hits the hill tonight and he completely shut down the White Sox over the weekend giving up just 1 run over 8 innings. The Sox were able to get just 3 batters on base during that 8 inning span. Cortes has an ERA of 1.35 on the season averaging almost 12 K’s per 9 innings, allowing an opponent batting average of .164 with a WHIP of 0.85. He’s also backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. We don’t expect Chicago, who ranks 26th in runs scored and 26th in OPS, to do much of anything offensively in this one. Chicago is also in a tough situational spot having just played 5 games in 4 days @ KC and now on the road again. The Yankees don’t have any problems offensively right now. They lead MLB in OPS, 2nd in HR’s per game, and 4th in runs scored. They face Dallas Keuchel who has been very poor this season after struggling as well a year ago. He has an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of almost 2.00. Keuchel is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of .319 and he’s walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. He pitched fairly well vs NY over the weekend going 5 innings and not allowing a run, however the Yanks had 7 baserunners during that 5 inning stretch. On the road this season Keuchel has an ERA of over 11.00 and a WHIP of almost 3.00! The Yanks average over 6 RPG at home vs lefties this season and we like them to pound Keuchel in this one. Let’s lay 1.5 runs with New York on Saturday in early day game action. |
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05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Cleveland, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Two big time OVER teams facing off here as the Reds are 22-12-2 to the OVER and the Guardians are 20-14 to the OVER. Both teams have been playing well offensively as of late with Cleveland averaging 4.95 RPG over their last 10 and Cincinnati averaging 5.93 their last 10. Cleveland sends Quantrill to the hill and while his ERA is a solid 3.93, his xERA (expected ERA) and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) are both quite a bit higher telling us he’s been a bit lucky this season. Tyler Mahle is pitching for the Reds and his ERA is approaching 6.00 and actually dropped the last 2 games as he allowed only 2 ER’s in each. However, both of those outings were vs Pittsburgh who is 26th in batting average and 29th in total runs scored on the season. Cleveland is 7th in MLB in RPG and 5th in batting average so Mahle will have a tougher go of it today. Both pitchers struggle with walks so we expect plenty of base runners today. The ump behind the plate today is Jerry Meals who has called balls & strikes 6 times this year and his games have averaged 11.5 total runs. We like OVER this afternoon. |
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05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Yesterday we were on Tampa Bay on the run line and picked up an easy 8-1 win. We see a similar outcome (easy win) tonight with Miami over Washington. Rather than laying -200 with the Marlins we’ll grab the run line at -1.5 and then we are getting +115. Miami has dominated this series this season going a perfect 5-0 thus far and tonight they have their best pitcher on the mound. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic this season giving up just 5 ER’s in starts! He has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 ER just one time all season. He’s already faced Washington this year and did not give up an ER in his 6 IP. He’s facing a Nationals team that has really struggled offensively as of late, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 5 games vs Miami this season, Washington has scored a total of 8 runs and they have not topped 2 runs in any of those 5 games. They are hitting just .184 as a team in those 5 games averaging less than 6 hits per game. In the first 2 games of this series in Miami, the Nats have been outscored 13-3 and outhit 26-12. Miami is trending upward offensively. They are averaging 6 RPG over their last 6 games and over their last 10 the Marlins are hitting .282 vs right handers and putting up nearly 6 RPG. They’ll be facing Washington starter Josiah Gray who has an ERA of 4.34 and has really struggled his last 2 outings allowing 9 ER’s in 11 IP and 5 HR’s. In his 1 start vs Miami this season, Gray allowed 4 ER’s and 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings of work. When we get to the bullpens, Miami is superior in almost every key category. We think Washington really struggles offensively again vs one of the top pitchers in the Majors and Miami wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -1.5 on Run Line over Detroit, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - TB is a huge -275 favorite here but if we take the run line we can knock it down to the -120 range. Tampa is coming off a 3-2 loss yesterday vs the Tigers and Detroit scored the game winner in the 9th inning. The Tigers had only 6 baserunners in 9 innings yesterday and somehow scratched out 3 runs. We think Detroit struggles to score anything today vs McClanahan who is on the hill for Tampa. He has fantastic 2.52 ERA but has actually pitched better than his numbers with an xERA of 2.40 and a ridiculously good xFIP of 1.65. McClanahan is averaging a whopping 13 K’s per 9 innings while walking just 2. He’s facing a Detroit offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in both scoring and OPS. The Tigers, with a 13-23 record, might look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but their 3 wins prior to last night were at home where they swept a bad Baltimore team. In the 3 games before that series the Tigers were swept at home by Oakland and scored 4 total runs in that 3 game series. Detroit pitcher Brieske has made 4 starts this season and those are his only 4 appearances in the Majors in his career. His ERA looks solid at 3.86, however his xERA is almost 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.82. Prior to getting called up to Detroit he had an ERA of 4.50 for Toledo in the Minors. His luck factor has been extremely high with opposing hitters BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .164. We like Tampa to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-16-22 | Braves v. Brewers -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee -135 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - These 2 just met in early May in Atlanta and the Braves took 2 of 3 giving Milwaukee a little extra incentive here. The Brewers are happy to be back at home after a long 9 game road trip. At home Milwaukee is 10-4 on the season and run differential of +3 RPG. They average 6.5 RPG at home and vs right handers that number jumps up to 7 RPG at American Family Field! They’ll be facing Ian Anderson who has an ERA of 4.20 and has given up 4 HR’s in his last 5 games. That could be a problem in this one vs a Brewer line up that averages 1.42 HR’s per 9 innings, 2nd in the Majors. The Braves are on the road for the first time since May 4th after a disappointing 4-4 home stand. They are just 6-8 on the road this year hitting just .216 as a team and averaging only 3.4 RPG. They are facing Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee and we feel he is undervalued right now. His ERA is 4.40, but most of that came in his first 2 starts where he struggle back in mid April. His xERA is 3.40 and his FIP is fantastic at 2.37 which lends to the fact he has pitched much better than his ERA suggests. In his last 4 starts Peralta has allowed just 4 ER’s with 28 strikeouts and only 5 walks. At home this season he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of just 0.93. Versus current players on Atlanta’s roster, Peralta has faced 49 plate appearances and the Braves hitters have a batting average of just .209. We like Milwaukee to get the win at home tonight. |
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05-15-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -115 over Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Cubs pulled off a 4-2 win in Arizona yesterday despite picking up only 4 hits in the game. The DBacks won the first game of the series and have outhit the Cubs 20 to 9 in the first 2 games. Chicago is just 9 of 61 at the plate (.147 batting average) so far in this series while Arizona is 20 for 70 (.286 average). The Cubs have been struggling at the plate for a while now with a team BA of just .202 over their last 10 games averaging 2.9 RPG. They have a 3-7 record in those games. Arizona is 7-3 over their last 10 games hitting .249 and averaging 5 RPG. Today they face Chicago lefty Steele and the DBacks have been even better vs southpaws hitting .292 and averaging 5.5 RPG over their last 10. Steele has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.32 and he has not pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 27 baserunners in his last 4 starts spanning just 12.2 innings. Arizona starter Castellanos has an ERA of 4.32, however he has had only 1 poor start this season. In 4 of his 5 starts he has allowed 3 ER’s or less. He’s allowed 0 ER’s in 2 of his 5 starts on the year. With the Cubs struggling at the plate and Arizona coming alive offensively and facing a struggling pitcher, we like the Diamondbacks to take the series finale today. |
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05-14-22 | Guardians -125 v. Twins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
MLB side pick "action" #923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -125 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Cleveland is coming off a 12-8 loss here last night and we expect them to bounce back with a win today with their ace on the mound. Last night the Twins were able to rough up Cleveland starter Civale which wasn’t a huge surprise as his ERA is now north of 9.00 and he has allowed at least 6 ER’s now in 3 of his last 4 starters. Today Minnesota will have a much tougher go of it facing former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber. He is coming off his worst start of the year @ Toronto and that should give Bieber some extra motivation here. Prior to his most recent start, he had allowed a total of 8 earned runs in just over 28 innings this season. His ERA is just over 4.00, however most of that was due to his one poor outing a week ago when he gave up 7 ER’s in 3 innings. He should handle a Twins offense that before last night was faltering averaging just 2.7 RPG over their previous 10. Cleveland’s offense shouldn’t have a problem tonight. They have been one of the best in the Majors all season ranking in the top 4 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They face Minnesota starter Smeltzer who was called up from the Minors to get the start today. He has pitched 69 total innings in the Majors in his career but has been pretty much a life long Minor leaguer. It’s not like he’s been a dominant Minor league pitcher with a career 17-21 record with a WHIP of 1.24 in 374 innings. The Guardians had won 6 of their previous 9 games entering yesterday and their offense has averaged 6 RPG over their last 10. Take Cleveland on Saturday. |
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05-12-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - We’ve played many more UNDERS this year than OVERS and cashed in nicely on most of them. The UNDERS have cashed at over 56% so far this season (non extra inning games). That being said, the Reds are a full blown OVER team right now. They have the best OVER record in MLB by a long shot at 21-9-1. Their pitching staff is weak and their offense is clicking right now. After losing 20 of 21 games between April 12th and May 5th, the Reds have now won 4 of their last 6 and their offense is red hot averaging over 8 RPG in those 6 contests. Cincy is now 13-1-1 to the OVER in their last 15 games. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been playing much better as of late putting up just over 4 RPG over their last 10 hitting .250 as a team during that stretch. The Reds pitching staff is dead last in team ERA by a longshot at 6.61 while Pittsburgh has the 3rd worst ERA in MLB at 4.81. The scheduled starters are Brubaker for Pittsburgh and Overton for Cincinnati. Advantage to the hitters in this game as both teams just faced off vs these pitchers last week so they’ve seen them very recently. That match up went to Pittsburgh 9-2 so easily over the total. Cincy struggled a bit vs Overton which was to be expected as he was making his first start ever vs the Reds and just the 5th start of his career. The Reds should have a much better showing offensively in this game seeing him for the 2nd time in a week. Once we get to the bullpens we have 2 of the worst in the Majors (30th and 25th in bullpen ERA) so we don’t expect these offenses to slow down late in the game. We’re on the OVER in this one. |
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05-11-22 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Colorado vs San Francisco, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies have their best pitcher going today with Chad Kuhl on the hill. He has allowed a grand total of 5 ER’s on the season in his 4 starts. He’s given up just 2 HR’s in 4 games with a 0.84 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .157 vs Kuhl. His 4 starts have averaged just 6.25 total RPG. He will be opposed by a pitcher we feel is drastically undervalued right now. The Giants send Cobb to the hill and his numbers are much higher than they should be. His overall ERA is 4.80, however his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he has pitched this season is just 1.24 and his xFIP is a very low .205 which is the 3rd lowest of all starting pitchers taking the hill today. Those numbers tell us he is pitching MUCH better than his ERA indicates. We’ve discussed the Rockies overall offensive numbers many times within our analysis on their games. Their overall offensive stats look very good. However, much of that success has come at home in the high altitude. On the road this team is hitting just .233 and averaging less than 3 RPG. Versus right handers on the road the Rockies are squeezing out only 2.05 RPG on the season. The Giants offense has been humming in the first 2 games of this series putting up 17 total runs, however they have faced two lower tier starters for Colorado. In their previous 6 games leading into this series, San Fran was averaging just 3.6 RPG and that INCLUDED a 13 run outburst vs the Cardinals Steven Matz who has an ERA north of 7.00. Two top notch starters keep this game low scoring this afternoon. |
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05-10-22 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Kansas City vs Texas, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - The top starters for each team on the hill today and with the total set at 8 we like the UNDER in this one. Keller is the starter for KC and he has 5 starts under his belt allowing just 6 ER’s all season. In his last 3 starts he’s pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 1 ER. His WHIP is an impressive 0.84 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .168 vs Keller. Texas sends Perez to the mound and he’s a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. His first 2 starts of the season were a bit shaky but he’s pitched really well as of late. Over his last 3 starts, spanning 20 innings, Perez has allowed only 1 ER on only 8 total hits. Opposing batters are hitting barely over .200 vs the lefty. KC is averaging just 2.4 RPG vs left handers so with how well Perez has been pitching, we see him having great success here. Neither team is lighting it up offensively. Both rank near the bottom of MLB in both batting average and OPS. KC is putting up an average of just 3.1 RPG on the season and Texas is at 4.1 RPG. The Rangers have been a bit fortunate to get to that number as their overall offensive numbers (BA, OPS, HR’s) are not that of a team averaging 4.1 RPG. If we narrow it down to more recent results, over the las 10 games the Royals are averaging 2.73 RPG and the Rangers are at 3.13. These 2 starting pitchers have combined for 10 starts this year and only once has a game topped 8 runs. We don’t see either of these offenses having much success and we’ll grab the UNDER tonight. |
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05-09-22 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland vs Detroit, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst and coldest offenses going at it head to head tonight in this one. Oakland ranks 25th in RPG, 29th in batting average, 30th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s. Detroit ranks 30th, 26th, 29th and 30th in those categories respectively. Both teams also strikeout a LOT with both whiffing almost 10 times per 9 innings. Both have been terrible vs right handed pitchers this season and especially as of late with Oakland averaging 1.83 RPG with a BA of .174 and Detroit averaging 2.02 RPG with a BA of .202 their last 10 games. The A’s are off a series in Minnesota where they scored 4 total runs in 3 games and they’ve been held to 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 14 games. Detroit is off a series in Houston where they scored 6 total runs in 4 games and they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 13 of their last 16 games. Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and he’s been their best starter this year allowing just 6 ER’s in 24 innings with a WHIP of 0.95. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing 3 ER’s vs a red hot Tampa Bay offense, and we expect him to pitch very well today. Pineda has been solid for the Tigers with a 3.77 ERA on the season and he’s been consistently good for 3 seasons now with his highest ERA at 3.62 during that span. Both pitchers have great K to walk ratios and we mentioned both offenses struggle with strikeouts. These teams have combined record of 34-20-1 to the UNDER this year and with the wind blowing in from left tonight at 10 to 15 MPH, this sets up nicely for a low scoring game. We’re on the UNDER. |
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05-08-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We’ve been cashing in quite regularly with Unders this season but we switch gears and take the Over in this one. The Reds are one of the few teams that has a solid Over record this season (17-9-1 to the Over) and they’ve gone Over the total in 10 of their last 11 games. Their last 11 games have averaged 13 total runs per game. Their pitching has been horrendous which is a big reason for their high scoring games. They are dead last in MLB in both starter’s ERA and bullpen ERA. Today the Reds send Tyler Mahle to the hill and after a solid first start of the season way back on April 7th, he has since allowed 20 ER’s in his last 21 innings spanning 5 starts. Pittsburgh’s starter Thompson has been worse. His ERA is almost 10.00 and his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is one of the highest in the Majors for a starting pitcher at 2.22. We spoke of Cincinnati’s struggles in the bullpen but Pittsburgh’s relievers are great either ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, hits allowed, and WHIP. The first 2 games of this series 11 and 13 runs with the teams combining for 36 hits and a whopping 54 total baserunners. More struggles for each pitching staff here and another Over is on the way. |
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05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee vs Atlanta, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Two of the top starting pitchers in baseball are facing off in this one. Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is on the hill for Milwaukee and lefty Max Fried will start for Atlanta. In his last 4 starts Burnes has allowed a grand total of 4 ER’s in 28 innings with a whopping 39 K’s (~10 per game) and just 4 walks. Fried has allowed only 5 ER’s in his last 4 starts spanning 24 innings with 22 K’s and 0 walks. We look for very few walks today from these 2 so the opposing batters will have to earn their runs which will be tough. Both starters have the ability to go deep into games but when we do reach the bullpens both are among the best in MLB. Milwaukee has been scoring plenty of runs as of late, however their most recent games have been at home vs the Reds who have the worst ERA in MLB and yesterday vs Atlanta (Brewers scored 6 runs) the Braves went with a reliever who doesn’t start and he gave up 2 ER’s and lasted only 1 inning. Now Milwaukee faces a top of the line starter for the first time in well over a week. On top of that, the Brewers have struggled with left handed pitchers hitting just .218 and averaging a full 1.5+ RPG less than when facing a right hander. On the other side, Atlanta has hit just .220 vs right handers this year and they average a full 1 RPG less than when facing lefties. Both teams strikeout a lot (22nd and 28th in MLB) which will be a big problem vs these pitchers. We don’t foresee many baserunners today (Burnes WHIP is 0.73 & Fried is 0.87) so very few chances to push runners across the plate. Under is the play. |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Colorado vs Arizona, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - While the DBacks bats did come alive a bit over their last 4 or 5 games, they are still hitting a league low .188 (team batting average) and they are worse at home hitting only .158. The Rockies overall offensive numbers are very solid, however most of their damage has come at home in the high altitude. On the road Colorado is hitting just .230 and barely averaging 3 RPG. The edge goes to both starting pitchers in this game tonight. Arizona starter Kelly has been lights out allowing just 4 ER’s on the season in his 5 starts (29 innings pitched). He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in 3 of his 5 starts and he ranks 2nd in MLB with a 1.27 ERA. The total runs scored in 4 of his 5 starts this season has been 5 or less. Colorado will send Kuhl to the mound and he’s been the Rockies best starter this season. He’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s this year in his 4 starts spanning 24 innings. He has a 1.90 ERA on the season and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .160 vs Kuhl this season. Even at home in the high altitude Kuhl has proven a top notch pitcher allowing just 3 ER’s in 13 innings this season. This game is on the road but that previous stat speaks to how well he is pitching right now. We think both offenses struggle tonight and this one stays Under 8.5 Runs. |
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05-05-22 | Marlins +100 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
#957 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Miami +100 over San Diego, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are not in an ideal situation here having played a doubleheader yesterday in Cleveland. After their 6-5 loss in game 2 @ Cleveland yesterday, San Diego made the long trek home and now must play a game just over 24 hours after their 2nd game of the DH ended yesterday. Not only that, it was the end of a long 8 game road trip for San Diego so they’ve been traveling a lot. Their bullpen could be rather thin tonight after using 8 different relief pitchers in yesterday’s 2 games. The Padres are on a very nice 11-4 run overall but let’s keep in mind over half of those wins (6) have come vs the Reds who are 3-21 on the season. The only team San Diego has beaten during this stretch that currently has a winning record was a 3-2 extra inning win vs the Dodgers, otherwise all 10 of their other wins have come vs teams with losing records. Miami is coming off a tough home series getting swept by suddenly red hot Arizona (7-2 last 9 games). All 3 of those losses for the Marlins came by a single run and prior to those losses they had won 7 of their previous 8 games. We spoke of San Diego’s tough travel spot and while Miami is also traveling, this will be their first road game since April 28th so they are in a much better situation. The Marlins have Luzardo on the hill who has been fantastic in 3 of his 4 starts this season. If we throw out his poor start vs St Louis back in mid April, Luzardo has allowed just 3 ER’s in 16 innings with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 16 innings. His ERA on the season is a very good 3.10 but he’s pitched better than that with a xERA of 2.38 and an xFIP of just 2.69. San Diego’s starter tonight (Martinez) is the direct opposite with his numbers sitting much better than they should actually be. Martinez has an OK ERA of 4.12 but an xERA of 6.64 and an xFIP of 4.69. Miami also has an edge in most key bullpen categories. At basically even money, we like the Marlins here. |
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05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington vs Colorado, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - The Washington bats are red hot right now scoring 38 runs over their last 4 games – 3 vs San Francisco and 1 vs Colorado. That’s almost 10 RPG for the Nats over the last 4 games and they have a whopping 61 hits in those 4 games (15 hits per game average). They have been much better offensively on the road this year hitting .306 as a team and averaging 6.7 RPG. They are facing Rockies starter who has decent overall numbers, however 3 of his 4 starts have come on the road. In his only outing in Denver he allowed 12 baserunners in just 4 innings giving up 5 runs (4 earned). The Colorado offense is among the best in the league ranking 1st in batting average & OPS, 7th in RPG & HR’s. At home they are averaging 6 RPG and hitting .277 as a team. Those numbers spike up vs left handers as the Rockies hit .319 at home and average over 8 RPG. Tonight they face struggling south paw Patrick Corbin who not only has an ERA north of 8.00 this season but he’s also had problems with control walking almost 6 per 9 innings. Once we get past the 2 starting pitchers, it really doesn’t get any better. Colorado ranks dead last in bullpen ERA and WHIP. The Washington relievers ranks 24th and 26th in those 2 categories. The Nationals are 9-1-1 to the OVER in road games this season and these 2 have gone OVER the total in 11 of the last 15 meetings in Colorado. We look for a high scoring game in Denver this evening. |
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05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Milwaukee -1.5 Runs over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Rather than lay in the -230 range with the Brewers here, we can lay 1.5 runs at a solid value of +100. The Brewers offense has been back and forth for much of the season but they’ve been pretty consistent at home averaging almost 5 RPG. In their 7 home wins this season they’ve averaged 6 RPG. We expect the Milwaukee offense to play well here vs Cincy starter Mahle who has allowed 16 ER’s in his last 17.1 innings spanning 4 starts – all losses for the Reds. If Mahle continues to struggle, there is literally no relief for Cincinnati. The Reds bullpen owns the 3rd highest ERA, 3rd highest WHIP and has walked the 2nd most batters in the Majors. Cincy has allowed at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games and that will most likely be enough for Milwaukee to cover -1.5 here. That’s because the Brewers send ace Woodruff to the mound and he is coming off a poor start so we look for a bounce back. He’s also been outstanding at home not allowing a single earned run in 2 starts this season. He is backed by a solid bullpen and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is rolling right now allowing 2 runs or less in 5 straight games. That’s not great for a Cincinnati team that ranks 30th (last) in OPS, 29th in batting average, 28th in RPG and strikes out a lot. The Reds have won a grand total of ONE of their last 18 games and all but one of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. We like Milwaukee to win this game by 2 runs or more. |
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05-02-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Monday at 2:10 PM ET - The Sox offense continues to struggle topping 4 runs just TWICE in their last 16 games. That’s even a bit deceiving as one of those times they topped 4 runs was in yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the Angels. All 5 of those runs for Chicago came in the 9th inning! They had 12 hits on the day but half of those (6) came in the final inning as well. It’s not like the WS offense broke out and had a great game. They still rank 27th offensively in RPG, batting average, and OPS. Monday afternoon they face Angel left hander Sandoval who has pitched 15 innings this season and has not allowed an earned run. Dylan Cease is on the hill for the White Sox and while is numbers are very good, he’s actually pitched better than those numbers indicate. His ERA is a solid 3.27 in 22 innings pitched but his xERA (expected ERA) is actually 1.75! He’s also faced the Angels only once since the end of the 2019 season and that was over a year ago on April 4, 2021 giving him an edge on the LAA hitters here in our opinion. LAA pitcher Sandoval is in a similar situation having faced just 14 career plate appearances from the entire White Sox team giving him an edge as well. We mentioned the late scoring push from Chicago yesterday but the Angels did the same. Of the 11 runs scored yesterday, 7 came in the 9th inning. We expect the starters to hand a low scoring game over to the bullpens and the relievers to perform much better on Monday. Under the total is our play. |
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05-01-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Houston vs Toronto, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Toronto ace Gausman is on the hill and he has been fantastic this season. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in 24.2 innings with 31 strikeouts and not a single walk. His fastball hits 96 MPH and his splitter is nearly impossible to hit. Opposing batters have a chase rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) of 73% on his splitter and 53% on all pitches, both tops in MLB. He’s facing a Houston line up that has averaged just 3.8 RPG this season (21st) and the hitters Gausman has faced on the Astros have a batting average of just .196 vs him. Blue Jay games have totaled 7 runs or less in 3 of Gausman’s 4 starts this season. Offensively, Toronto has scored 2 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games. They will face Houston lefty Framber Valdez today who has been very good in 3 of his 4 starts. His one poor outing vs the LAA, Valdez allowed 6 ER in just 4 innings. In his other 3 starts, he has allowed 1 ER total in 15.2 innings. He has been a consistent pitcher for 2+ seasons now with an ERA of 3.57 in 2020 and 3.14 in 2021. The ump behind the plate today, Nestor Ceja, has called 3 games this year and the average total runs scored in those games is just 5.6. These 2 teams have combined to play 43 games this season with only 15 going Over the total. We expect another low scoring game here and UNDER is our play. |
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04-30-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Saturday at 8 PM ET - In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball as of late. They have scored at least 10 runs in 4 of their last 5 games including last night’s 12-2 win over KC. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and 8 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. They rank #1 in MLB in HR’s per 9 innings at 1.44 and they are in the top 7 in batting average, RPG, and OPS. Tonight they face Hernandez who is on the mound for the Royals. He has allowed 10 ER’s this season in just 14 innings and his strikeout to walk ratio is bad at 1 to 1. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is the 2nd highest on the board of starting pitchers today at 1.79. We don’t expect the Yankees offense to slow down today. On the other side, NY will send Gerrit Cole to the mound who has a solid ERA of 4.00 but he’s actually pitched better than that this season with an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.74 and an xFIP of 3.50. He is facing a KC lineup that ranks 26th in scoring, 27th in team batting average, 27th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. The Royals started the season winning 5 of their first 10 games but have since gone 2-6 their last 8 and they have been outscored 44 to 27 in those 8 games. We are getting the better starting pitcher, the much better offense, and we’ll lay -1.5 runs (-110) in this one. |
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04-29-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Pitchers with Action: #969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The White Sox have been struggling at the plate to say the least. They rank 24th or lower in RPG, team batting average, and OPS. The Sox have been held to 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games and they have a team batting average of just .186 over their last 10 games. In their last 4 series (all 3 game series) they have scored a grand total of 9, 7, 5, and 9 runs. Those are their offensive outputs for the entire series, not just one game! It won’t get any easier for them tonight facing the Angels starter Syndergaard who has allowed just 4 ER’s in his 3 starts spanning 17 innings. Syndergaard is also a great ground ball pitcher with 58% balls in play staying on the ground which leads to fewer runs. The Angels have much better offensive numbers but they will be facing Chicago’s ace tonight with Giolito on the mound. He has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season for an ERA of just over 1.00 with a whopping 16 strikeouts in just 8 innings. Giolito has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the Majors with an ERA of 3.53 or lower each of the last 3 seasons. Each of these pitchers have had success vs the current lineups for the opposing team with Giolito limiting current Angels to batting average of .195 lifetime and Syndergaard holding current White Sox hitters to a lifetime average of .209. Wind is blowing in from center tonight at 10 to 15 MPH and we expect a low scoring game in this one. |
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04-28-22 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - Houston sends their ace Justin Verlander to the mound in the series finale. He has allowed just 4 ER’s in 3 starts this season with a miniscule WHIP of 0.74. Lefty Perez is on the hill for Texas and the Astros have really struggled vs southpaws this year with a team batting average of just .189. Houston has averaged just 3.1 RPG this season per 9 innings vs lefties and Perez has some big momentum coming off his best outing of the year holding Oakland scoreless with just 2 hits in 6 innings. Perez has a solid ERA of 3.86 on the season but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA (expected ERA) of 2.86. The Houston offense has struggled all season ranking 20th or lower in RPG, batting average, and OPS. While Texas has averaged 4.7 RPG on the season (7th in MLB) they’ve been a bit lucky as their batting average (19th in MLB) and OPS (21st) don’t align with that number. Much of their success was early with the Rangers averaging 6 RPG through their first 7 games and they’ve dropped to just 3.4 RPG over their last 10. When we get to the relievers Houston has the 8th best bullpen ERA in the Majors and their pen has allowed only 4 HR’s on the season. The Texas bullpen numbers are not good but they were terrible early in the season and they’ve rebounded to pitch very well as of late. Over the last 10 games the Texas bullpen ERA is 3.07 and they’ve allowed opponents to hit just .186. We’re on the UNDER in this one. |
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04-27-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - Arizona has the worst offense in the Majors. They are dead last averaging 3 RPG, .182 team batting average, and .588 team OPS. The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their 18 games this season and they’ve already been shutout 4 times. They are facing Dodger lefty Urias who has allowed 1 ER in his last 10 innings and has faced the current Arizona line up in 93 total plate appearances and held those batters to a batting average of just .193. On top of that, as bad as Arizona has been offensively, their lowest numbers of the season have come vs left handed pitchers with a batting average of .162 and an average of only 2 runs per 9 innings. It looks like the DBacks may have some momentum after scoring 5 runs yesterday vs these Dodgers but they did so on only 4 hits. In the first 2 games of this series Arizona has total of 7 hits. The LA offense has been great in the first 2 games of this series scoring a total of 7 runs. They now face Arizona’s most consistent starter this season, Zac Gallen, who has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season. Both of those starts came vs a potent Mets line up that ranks 4th in the Majors in batting average. These 2 teams have combined to play 35 games this season and only 9 have gone Over the total. We look for another low scoring game this afternoon. |
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04-26-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 Runs +110 over Boston, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Boston’s Nick Pivetta is on the mound in this game and he has been downright terrible this year. He faced the Blue Jays at Fenway Park last week and lost that game 6-1 allowing 11 baserunners in just 4 innings (allowed 5 ER’s). For the season Pivetta’s ERA is 10.80 but he’s actually pitched worse than that as his xERA (expected ERA) is over 15.00! He is walking an average of 7 per 9 innings and allowing a whopping 3.09 HR’s per 9 innings. That’s a problem here vs a Toronto team that leads the Majors with 22 HR’s on the season. Opponents have averaged 6 RPG this year in games started by Pivetta. That’ll be a problem here as Boston is facing a pitcher who is allowing next to nothing this season. When facing the Sox last week, tonight’s starter Kevin Gausman, gave up just 1 ER and 8 strikeouts in 8 innings on the mound. He is averaging 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings and hasn’t walked a single batter this season. Gausman’s ERA is just 2.89 on the season but he’s actually been a bit unlucky so to speak with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed of .416 (defense & luck have a lot to do with a high BABIP against). He’s facing a Boston offense that has been struggling to say the least. The Red Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Jays have played 7 homes games this year and averaged 5.6 RPG in those contests. Laying the 1.5 runs with Toronto and getting plus money in that instance (+110) is a solid value in our opinion. |
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04-25-22 | Guardians +109 v. Angels | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
PITCHERS "ACTION": #963 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +110 over LA Angels, Monday at 9:35 PM ET - Shane Bieber gets the start for Cleveland and we like the value here. We were on Bieber in his most recent start, an 11-1 win over the White Sox, and we’re getting Cleveland’s top starter basically at even money. On the season Bieber has started 3 games, allowed just 4 ER’s, has 16 strikeouts to just 3 walks, and has a WHIP of 0.69. We also like the fact the Guardians ace has not faced the Angels in either of the last 2 seasons. Cleveland was just swept @ NYY over the weekend, yet even with that they still own the 3rd best run differential in the American League. Their offense ranks in the top 4 in MLB in RPG, batting average, and on base percentage. They will be facing Lorenzen, a career relief pitcher, on the hill for the Angels. Since the start of the 2019 season, Lorenzen has pitched in 100 games and started just 4 of those games. That includes 2 this season and he has allowed 5 ER’s allowed in 6.1 innings. His numbers haven’t been great the last 2 seasons with an ERA of 5.59 and 4.28 as a relief pitcher. Because he’s not used to long outings, never threw more than 30 pitches last season, we expect Lorenzen to struggle as a starter. He’s backed up by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA and has allowed 11 HR’s on the season, the 2nd most in MLB. While Cleveland was struggling with the Yankees over the weekend, the Angels were nearly swept at home vs the downtrodden Orioles. Their lone win was by a single run in a game where the O’s had 3 more hits than LA. We’ll take a top of the line starter at small dog money in this one. |
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04-24-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Texas @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - These 2 played a low scoring 2-0 game yesterday which sets us up nicely with a lower than anticipated total on Sunday afternoon. Despite not being able to put many runs on the board yesterday, these 2 teams are still highly capable with Texas averaging 5.2 RPG (4th in the Majors) and Oakland averaging 4.3 RPG (13th). Both starting pitchers have had their troubles this season and neither bullpen is very good. Cole Irvin starts for Oakland and he has allowed 8 ER’s this season and is giving up over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. His ERA of 4.32 looks acceptable but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this year is over 7.00. Irvin is a lefty and the Rangers have hit southpaws very well this season with a .278 team BA compared to just .210 vs right handers. Texas will send reliever Garrett Richards to the mound to make his first start of the season. He’s appeared in 4 games this season out of the pen and been terrible, walking an average of 9 per 9 innings and allowing over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. Similar to Irvin, his ERA looks OK at 4.50, however his xERA is actually almost 8.00. Both of these pitchers have been quite lucky this season and we think this total is too low. On top of that, once we get to the bullpens Texas relievers have been poor with the 3rd highest ERA in the league while allowing the most HR’s. Oakland’s bullpen has a much better ERA, however they’ve allowed a bunch of baserunners with a WHIP of 1.40 which is 2nd highest in MLB, so they’ve been a bit fortunate. With this low total we like the OVER. |
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04-23-22 | Rangers v. A's -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oakland -125 over Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Texas is coming off an 8-1 win here last night. We like Oakland to bounce back today with Montas on the hill. Since he struggled in his opening start @ Philly he has been outstanding his last 2 starts allowing just 2 earned runs in 12.1 innings with 11 strikeouts and just 2 walks. Since the start of last season Montas has a whopping 224 strikeouts in just 204 innings. Today he faces a Texas line up that has hit just .215 vs right handers this season. The A’s will be facing Ranger’s left hander Perez who has been poor this season. Perez has allowed an average of 2 baserunners per inning in his 2 starts this season, both Texas losses. In his 2 starts the Rangers have lost by a combined 8 runs to the Rockies and Angels. He will be backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the Majors with Texas relievers logging the 2nd worst ERA in MLB and allowing 12 HR’s already this season, worst in the league. We like the surprising A’s, who have the 3rd best run differential in the American League, to get this win at home. |
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04-22-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Pitchers with action NOT listed: #913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs San Diego, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres offense went through a rough stretch from April 12 through April 17 where they scored 2 runs or less in 5 of 6 games. Despite that they are still 12th in MLB scoring 4.46 RPG. After that 6 game run, they have since scored 16 runs in their last 3 games. The Dodgers offense never hit that lull this season. They are 2nd in MLB scoring 5.43 RPG and they’ve put up at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 9 games. They have dangerous bats up and down their line up and should have a field day vs San Diego starter Martinez who has struggled with walks throughout his career along with giving up the long ball (1.5 HR’s allowed per 9 in his career and 2.7 this season). In his 2 starts this year Martinez has allowed 17 baserunners in 10 innings and giving up 3 long balls. LA starter Urias has a decent ERA of 3.86 through 2 starts but his xFIP is really high at 5.03 and his WHIP is 1.20 which tells us he is not pitching as well as some might think. His xERA (expected ERA) based on his performances this year is actually above 4.50. Urias is a lefty and the Padres have hit much better vs southpaws this season when compared to right handers. With 14 games being played today, that means 28 starting pitchers. In this game we have 2 of the top 7 hurlers (out of 28) with the highest xFIP this season which means both offenses should be successful. We like OVER in this one. |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -118 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -118 over Baltimore, Thursday at 3:37 PM ET - This will be the fourth game of this series with the A’s taking 2 of the first 3. Baltimore’s lone victory in this series was yesterday’s 1-0 win and the O’s only run was unearned. The Orioles have scored a grand total of 3 runs in this series, 1 in each game. That’s actually not out of character for this offense that has scored a grand total of 24 runs in 12 games this year for an average of 2 RPG, last in the league. They’ve actually scored 2 or fewer runs in 75% of their games so far this season (9 of their 12 games). It’s amazing they’ve actually won 4 of their 12 games on the season. The A’s had an off night at the plate yesterday, although they did out hit the O’s in the loss. Despite putting up a zero yesterday, the A’s have scored 60 runs this season which is good for 7th most in MLB. We expect them to bounce back in the series finale on Friday facing Baltimore pitcher, Tyler Wells, who has a WHIP of 1.76 this season and struggled with walks allowing an average of almost 6.5 per 9 innings. He has allowed 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings this season, his first year as a starter after working out of the bullpen last season. While we expect Oakland to have success offensively, this one should be another struggle for the Orioles offense. They face Paul Blackburn who has allowed 2 ER’s this year in 10 innings of work with an outstanding xFIP of 1.89. Unlike Wells, the Oakland starter has not struggled with his control with a strikeout to walk ratio of 9 to 1. When they do go to the bullpen the A’s relievers have been solid with an ERA of 2.89 on the year. Oakland won’t need to do much offensively to pick up this win and we’ll side with the host in the series finale. |
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04-20-22 | White Sox v. Guardians -130 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Pitchers with action NOT listed: #932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -135 over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET (Game 1 of Double Header) - Cleveland should be hungry for a win here after just getting swept at home by the red hot Giants (won 6 of their last 7 games). The Indians are undervalued right now with just a 4-5 record, yet they have the highest run differential in the American League at +11. They send Shane Bieber to the mound who has pitched 10 innings this year allowing just 4 hits and 3 ER with a WHIP of 0.70. Bieber’s ERA has been below 3.30 in 3 straight seasons with Cleveland and we rate him as their top starting pitcher. The White Sox, despite their 6-3 record, are hitting just .197 vs right handers this season and they’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. Cleveland’s offense has been one of the best in the Majors ranking in the top 4 in runs scored, batting average, and OPS. The Guardians will face Dallas Keuchel who has been trending in the wrong direction since the start of last season. A year ago Keuchel had an ERA of 5.28 and allowed 248 base runners in just 162 innings pitched. He allowed 3 ER’s in 5 innings in his first start this season vs Seattle and struggled big time in spring training with the 4th highest ERA among starters. He faced Cleveland 3 times last season allowing 12 earned runs in just 16 innings of work. We like Cleveland in Game 1 of 2 at home on Wednesday |
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04-19-22 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Texas vs Seattle, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - If you can get a low total like this on a Texas game early in the season, it’s work a look to the Over. We feel the Rangers will be an Over team this year, especially early on before the oddmakers catch up with them. Their offense has been very solid and their pitching not so much. The Rangers are 3rd in MLB averaging 5.5 RPG and 30th in runs allowed at 6.6. So games involving Texas this year are averaging a whopping 12.1 RPG. They’ve had only 1 game this season fall under 7 total runs. Starting pitcher Gray made 1 start this year on April 8th and allowed 3 ER in 4 innings but hasn’t pitched since due to a blister on this throwing hand. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) vs players in the Seattle line up he’s faced in his career is a terrible 6.20. The Seattle offense struggled out of the gate not topping 4 runs in any of their first 6 games but they are starting to come around plating 5 or more in 3 of their last 4 (averaging 6 RPG over their last 4). Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. He is coming off a Cy Young season with Toronto but we feel that he is vastly overvalued, thus the low total here. His career ERA is north of 4.00 and prior to last season his FIP was never lower than 4.30 (in previous 5 seasons) and 4.20 is average. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) was north of 1.30 in each of his first 8 seasons. In his 2 starts this year he has allowed 16 base runners in 13 innings and 7 ER’s. Ray is a lefty and Texas is hitting over .300 as a team vs south paws this year. This total is set too low and we’ll grab the Over. |
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11-02-21 | Braves +117 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 117 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves +115 over Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET – We are not overly concerned with the pitchers here as we like the fact that Atlanta is 7-0 L7 when coming off a loss and, after getting blown out at home in Game 5, we look for them to respond in Game 6 on the road. The pitching match-up - again, we'll take action on pitchers - is expected to be Garcia for Houston versus Fried for the Braves. Garcia has had only one strong start out of his four starts in this post-season. Fried is off a sub-par outing but has been very strong overall this year for the Braves and they are a solid 20-12 in his starts this season. The lefty also has solid post-season experience having made 4 starts in last year's playoffs and again 4 starts so far in this post-season. Atlanta once again responds big off a loss and gets it done here to capture the title. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we will grab the road team at a nice comeback price (small underdog) on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves +115 |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -105 over Houston Astros, Friday at 8:09 PM ET – The Braves have been very strong at home in this post-season. Not only is Atlanta a perfect 5-0 in the post-season this year when at home, they also have been red hot as a host dating back to the regular season. The Braves are 10-1 in last 11 home games since a loss to Colorado in mid-September. We are not overly concerned with the pitchers here as we also like the fact that Atlanta is 6-0 when coming off a loss and, after getting blown out on the road in Game 2, we look for them to respond in Game 3 at home where they have been so strong. The pitching match-up - again, we'll take action on pitchers - is expected to be Garcia for Houston versus Anderson for the Braves. Garcia is off a strong start but struggled badly in the two starts prior to that. Also, in the regular season Garcia was much better at home than on the road and, of course, this is a road outing for him. Anderson has been very strong in the post-season and the Braves have gone 12-2 in his home starts and he continues to pitch like much more of a veteran than his young age of 23 would suggest as an experience level. Atlanta once again responds big off a loss and gets it done here. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we will grab the home team at a very fair price (very small favorite) on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves -105 |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -135 over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET – The Astros have been very strong at home. Houston finished 21 games over .500 in home games in the regular season and are 4-1 in home games thus far in the post-season. Note that the Braves have lost 3 of 5 road games in this post-season and just playing the home team in all Atlanta games in these playoffs would have netted you an 8-2 betting record to date. Framber Valdez is off a fantastic outing versus the Red Sox last week and holds an edge here in that he has always pitched in the NL and the Braves just don't have hitters with a lot of experience against him. Charlie Morton, on the other hand, is a former Astro who also was with the Rays in recent seasons. While in the starting rotation for TB he did end up facing his former team a few times. The last start he made at Houston was a disaster as he was charged with 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. Morton is a solid veteran pitcher but coming off B2B shaky post-season outings too. He walked 6 in 5 innings in most recent start against Dodgers and allowed 6 baserunners (4 hits, 1 walk, 1 hit batter) in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in the start that preceded that when he faced the Brewers. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we are riding the more experienced post-season team in Game 1 and we will grab the home team at a very fair price (rather small favorite) on the money line in this one and bet Houston Astros -135 |
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10-21-21 | Braves +130 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves +130 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team has now gone cold at the plate and the Braves hold the edge and can close this series out with one more game of hot hitting. Los Angeles is expected to go with a true bullpen game here as no LA pitcher is really available for extended work and the Dodgers arms have not been nearly as strong in this series as they were in the prior series versus the Giants. The Braves have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game the last 3 games and we are going to take the hotter lineup and the team that has had the better bullpen in this series too and we are siding with the visitors in this one. Atlanta is expected to start Max Fried in this one and the southpaw has had a huge season and he went a combined 7-0 in August / September with a 1.46 ERA and has a 1.50 ERA in his two starts in this post-season as well. Even if Fried was not the starter and no matter who the Dodgers start here, we are riding the hot team in a potential close-out game and we will grab the road team at a nice come back underdog price on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves +130 |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 6 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 13.2 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now, after a huge 12-3 win in Game 3 yesterday at home, they have won 9 of 12 games at Fenway Park. In those 12 games played in Boston, the Red Sox have averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Zack Greinke here. The right-hander has not started since September 19th and also was not overly dominant in his two relief appearances since then. Look for Greinke to be a bit off after the long time between starts and plus he got hammered by Boston when he most recently started against them. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in the month of October and yesterday was the first time they had been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros should do some damage against Nick Pivetta as the right-hander was better in day games and road games in the regular season! This is a night game and a home game and Pivetta had a 4.85 ERA in night games and a 5.40 ERA in home games in the regular season. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one easily getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Monday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 5 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 12.8 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now are back home where they have won 8 of 11 games. In those 11 games at Fenway Park, Boston has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Jose Urquidy here. The right-hander has not pitched since October 3rd and allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts of the regular season. Look for Urquidy to be a bit off after the long time between starts and also to continue to prove susceptible to giving up the long ball. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game in the month of October and has not been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros will take advantage of facing Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez as he has a 5.95 ERA in home starts this season! This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. #905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -125 over Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team, no matter who has been on the mound, has won 11 of 13 games and has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of 13 games. Los Angeles could start Max Scherzer here as, even though he came in to pitch the 9th inning in the Game 5 victory over the Giants, he threw only 13 pitches. The point about the Dodgers pitching is that even if they go with a bullpen game here this team continues to dominate with pitching no matter who is on the mound. LA has won those 11 of 13 games also, thanks in part, to a red hot lineup. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7.3 runs in their last 9 victories! The Braves have scored an average of 3.7 runs per game last 7 games and we are going to take the better lineup and the better bullpen and the more experienced post-season team to get the win here in Game 1. Whether or not the Dodgers start Scherzer and whether or not the Braves start Max Fried, we are siding with Los Angeles in this one for the reasons outlined above. We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -125 |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 9:07 PM ET – NOTE: Corey Knebel now starting for LA but only as an opener. Urias will get the bulk of the work per all reports we have seen. We like action with this play no matter which pitcher starts. The Dodgers pitching has been fantastic as they have allowed only 2.3 runs per game in the last 7 games. The Giants are certainly in line for strong pitching in this one as well with Logan Webb going 7-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 home starts this season. 10 of those 13 starts resulted in an under! The Dodgers Julio Urias is 14-2 with a 2.67 ERA in his road starts this season! Urias enters this start in top form with a 1.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Giants Webb has a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Also, against the Dodgers, Webb has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in last 3 starts facing them. Urias, against the Giants, has also allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts facing them. Both these guys started earlier in the series and were great. With playoff pressure at its highest in this winner-takes-all Game 5, look for both lineups to struggle at the plate. Before the Dodgers big Game 4 win, they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games. The Giants have averaged only 2.2 runs in this series thus far! Look for both the righty Webb and the lefty Urias to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday. That being said, after Tuesday's game reached the over because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 5:15 PM ET – Charlie Morton starts for the Braves here and he was fantastic in Game 1 of this series. He took the loss in the 2-1 Brewers win but Morton allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9 in 6 innings! Morton is now 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in the last 3 post-seasons combined! Milwaukee starts Eric Lauer in this one. Lauer had a rough final start of the season but this was after he went 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his 5 starts in September. He can hold the Braves in check here as Atlanta has scored only 2.3 runs per game in this series and the under has cashed in 6 of last 7 Atlanta games. As for the Brewers sticks, they have now been shutout in back to back games plus only scored 2 runs in their game 1 win. Dating back to the regular season, Milwaukee has averaged only 2.6 runs per game last 9 games. That being said, and considering that all 3 games in this series have totaled just 3 runs, look for this one to be yet another tight game throughout with runs again coming at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-11-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants, Monday at 9:37 PM ET – The Dodgers Max Scherzer went 15-4 with a 2.45 ERA in the regular season. Though he had a couple of tough late season starts one of those was at Coors Field. The O/U went 11-20 in his starts this season and he is they type of elite hurler that is capable of completely dominating an opponent every time he steps on the mound. Look for him to come up with one of those dominating starts here. Scherzer was dominant for the Nationals in the 2019 post-season. He is one of those guys you want on the mound in a situation like this one! As for the Giants, they have a pitcher in top form on the mound for this one! Alex Wood is a former Dodgers pitcher so he has plenty of post-season experience. He also enters this start off a September in which he made 3 starts and compiled a 1.38 ERA and San Francisco won all 3 games and all 3 were unders! We expect another strong performance from Wood here and yet another under being recorded as well! In 6 career starts against the Dodgers, Wood has a 3.34 ERA and the O/U is 1-4 with a push. The O/U is 0-4 in the Giants last 4 games against a right-handed starter. Look for both the righty Scherzer and the lefty Wood to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday. That being said, after Saturday's game reached double digits because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Monday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET – After the wild 14-6 Red Sox win on Friday, look for things to return to typical playoff baseball in this one. Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen has a 1.93 ERA in his 10 starts this season and 7 of them stayed under the total. Rasmussen has a 1.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston and he has given up only 1 earned run in 11 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two starts. Also, in Eovaldi's last two home starts versus the Rays he has allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits while striking out 18 in 14 innings! Both teams have been trending heavily to the under in recent weeks and have not had back to back overs in over two weeks. That being said, after Friday's slugfest, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. #921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -115 over San Francisco Giants, Friday at 9:37 PM ET – The Giants have been hot but the Dodgers are even hotter. Riding the momentum of Wednesday's dramatic walk-off win in the Wild Card game, Los Angeles now is on an 8-game winning streak and flying high with confidence. The Giants have also been red hot of course and did win the NL West Division but the playoff experience of this Dodgers team is also an added edge especially in Game 1 of a series. The Giants are starting Logan Webb and he has had a fantastic season, particularly at home, but allowed 4 earned runs in his final start of the season and it was at home too. Webb does have solid long-term numbers versus the Dodgers but is only 1-2 in his decisions against them. Walker Buehler is a fantastic 7-1 in his career decisions against the Giants and, best of all, that lone loss was in his most recent start against them. Buehler had dominated the Giants, including this season, until things fell apart when he last faced them early last month. That will have Buehler especially locked in for this revenge rematch and he should resume the long-term dominance at San Francisco. In his final two starts of the regular season Buehler allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits in 12 innings while striking out 16. The Dodgers have won 14 of 19 post-season games the past two seasons combined. The Giants have not even been in the post-season since 2016. Based on recent current form we have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus overall situational edge both (especially with post-season experience) are with the red hot road team in this one. We will grab the road team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -115 |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#939/940 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET – At first glance and considering Scherzer is on the mound for the Dodgers and this is playoff baseball, one might be leery of playing an over. However, Scherzer was hit hard in each of his last two starts this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs each time and both games, as you would expect, went over their respective totals. Though he had success against the Cardinals this season, this St Louis team was so hot to close out the season, including at the plate, that it is just hard to doubt the St Louis hitters no matter who they are facing. They also showed strong late season trending to the over in road games. Speaking of strong trending to overs, the Dodgers final 5 games - all at home by the way - all resulted in overs. Not only that, LA scored an average of 9 runs per game in those five games. Wainwright starts for the Cardinals here and allowed 3 homers over 11 innings in his final two starts of the regular season. This included getting roughed up at Milwaukee for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his final road start of the season. This total is in the 7.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting very close, if not into, double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying some success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
#937/938 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET – Playoff time and this wild card match-up is a rivalry game and it will be a chilly evening at Fenway Park with a light northerly breeze adding to the cool conditions. Considering these factors as well as this pitching match-up, we should see a very tight low-scoring pitchers duel in this one. Both bullpens in good shape heading into this one too. As for the starters, Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Yankees and he has a respectable 3.71 ERA in last 3 starts versus Boston. Cole went 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA in his road starts in the regular season. His last two starts went over the total on the road but the O/U was 4-10 in his first 14 outings away from Yankee Stadium this season. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston here and, before a rare bad outing versus the Yankees in his final home start of the regular season, he had been particularly strong at Fenway Park this season with a 6-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. Eovaldi entered that rare rough outing with a 2.12 ERA in his 3 starts prior. The under had been perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Yankees and he had compiled a 2.55 ERA in those outings. In other words, don't be surprised when he bounces right back here in this rematch with the Yankees. The under, before that wild 8-3 win a week ago Friday, had been a perfect 2-0 in Cole's last 2 starts versus Boston and he has totaled 25 strikeouts in the 17 innings over his last 3 starts against the Red Sox. The Yankees had only 2 overs in their last 8 games of the season. The under trend continues here as the Red Sox final game of the season went over the total but this followed 7 straight unders! Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of early morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 112 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -115 on Run Line over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The Padres got the upset win in extra innings yesterday but are just 2-12 last 14 games! San Diego is 3-9 last 12 times they were off a win. The Giants had won 9 of 10 games before yesterday's loss. San Francisco, with a chance to lock up the NL West Division on the final day of the season, will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Reiss Knehr. The Padres righty is winless in his 4 starts this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts. San Francisco starts Logan Webb here. The Giants are 20-5 in his starts this season including 11-0 at home where the righty is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA on the year! The Giants had a 7-game winning streak before losing a tight game last night and 6 of their last 8 victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that San Francisco's 106 wins this season have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin. The Padres 82 losses have included 56 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Giants are 71-27 in games against teams with a losing record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -220 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -115 price range by utilizing the run line. Take San Francisco Giants 1.5 on the run line. |
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10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -125 over Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – The Rays have nothing to play for here. The Yankees have everything to play for as they are still trying to lock up a wild card spot. New York is in a good spot but they still need another victory. Just because a team needs a win of course does not mean they get that win. But the fact is you have a very motivated Yankees team that has won 8 of 9 games against a Rays team that has lost 2 of 3 and has already locked up the #1 spot in the AL playoff seeding. New York starter Nestor Cortes has a 3.01 ERA this season as a starter and the Yankees are 10-3 in his starts including 5-1in his home starts. He was solid against the Rays in his lone starts against them this season. Shane McClanahan is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA against the Yankees this season that easily could be higher too as he has allowed 14 hits and walked 5 in those two starts and this was in only 9 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for the Yankees to jump on McClanahan again in this one plus get a strong start from Cortes. It will be tough for the Rays to be very focused at the plate in this one while the Yankees will be locked in and have scored 5 or more runs in 8 straight games! Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been held to scoring 3 runs or less in 3 of last 4 games. We have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus overall situational edge both rest squarely with the red hot home team in this one. We will grab the home team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet New York Yankees -125 |
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09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET – The last time Nick Pivetta faced the Orioles was less than two weeks ago and he struggled badly. Pivetta allowed 7 hits in less than 4 innings versus Baltimore and was fortunate to get a key double play before he exited or the damage could have been much worse. Now he faces the Orioles again but this time at Baltimore where their .443 slugging percentage this season ranks 3rd in the AL. Look for the Orioles hitters to again get to Pivetta early and often in this one as they respond off a rare home shutout loss last night. Boston should also be hitting well in this game too. The Red Sox have won 7 of last 8 games against Orioles and have averaged scoring 7.8 runs a game during this stretch! Boston should have no trouble connecting against Baltimore starter Alexander Wells and behind him is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Wells is 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA in his 7 starts this season and allowed 5 earned runs in only 5 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox. Of his 7 starts this season, only 2 have been unders. Boston should crush the ball here but the Orioles also set up well to do much better at the plate than they did last night. This series has featured back to back unders so far but should finish with a bang. The five most recent meetings between these teams before this series saw the divisional foes combine to average a dozen runs per game in the 5 meetings. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -155 on Run Line over Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Orioles got the upset win yesterday but are just 13-39 last 52 games! Baltimore is 0-6 last 6 times they were off a win. The Red Sox had won 6 of 7 games at Baltimore before yesterday's loss. Boston will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Zac Lowther. The Orioles lefty is 0-2 against the Red Sox this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts. Boston starts Nathan Eovaldi here. The Red Sox righty has a 2.20 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. Eovaldi is off a bad start versus the Yankees but this followed a solid stretch of 8 starts in which he compiled a 2.27 ERA. The Red Sox had a recent 7-game winning streak before hitting a rough patch against the Yankees and all 7 of those victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that Boston's 88 wins this season have included 62 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 106 losses have included 82 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Red Sox are 42-21 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles are 29-74 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -250 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -155 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Yankees and Blue Jays are involved in the wild card race with the Red Sox and Mariners and A's as 5 teams chasing just 2 spots in the American League! Suffice to say it is playoff pressure with this match-up but it is likely to be these starting pitchers wilting under the pressure. New York starter Jameson Taillon has struggled on the road this season. Taillon has an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts (2 on the road) and he has a 5.66 ERA in his 13 road starts this season. The over is 11-2 in those starts on the road! Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Blue Jays here and, though he has had some success against the Yankees this season, his recent struggles are troubling to say the least. Ryu has a 10.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and could not make it out of the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts. The over is 9-5 in Ryu's home starts and he has an unimpressive 4.92 ERA in those 14 starts. The last time he hosted the Yankees (in June) he gave up a pair of homers and had more walks than strikeouts. Yankees have won 6 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 13 games and have won 8 of last 10 at home. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-27-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game was a low-scoring 2-1 Oakland win but this followed an O/U run of 8-0 in the meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. We look for that over trend to start up immediately again here based on this pitching match-up. The O/U is 13-7 in Jake Odorizzi's starts this season. He has a 4.70 ERA away from home and the last time he made a start in this ballpark he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings. The Astros right-hander's counterpart for this one is Paul Blackburn. The A's right-hander had a start he would rather forget (8 earned runs in 1 and 1 / 3 innings) in his only career start against the Astros. Also, Blackburn enters this outing struggling over his last 3 starts. Two of those 3 starts were at home and Blackburn allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 6 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts at Oakland Coliseum. The Astros will enjoy success at the plate after being shutdown yesterday. Houston had won 8 of 12 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game before being held to 1 run yesterday. Oakland, before the tight 2-1 win yesterday, had scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in last 11 games. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 6 straight games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has also won 3 straight games when facing the Pirates and the combined score of those games is 35-16. Look for another dominating win here as Ranger Suarez gives the Phillies a big edge over Pittsburgh and starter William Crowe. Even though Crowe had success against the Phillies earlier this season that start was at home and he is now on the road for this one Crowe has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season and has an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies this season including a 1.92 ERA in his 10 starts! The Pirates are 14-32 against southpaw starters this season and 18-42 in day games this season! Philadelphia is 33-18 in day games this season. The Phillies won by a multiple-run margin yesterday and note that Philadelphia's 80 wins this season have included 50 by more than a 1-run margin. The Pirates 96 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 13 games over .500 in home games this season and Pittsburgh is 23-55 in road games this season and 29-60 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -130 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – Rivalry game and played with playoff intensity as each of these clubs is currently holding a wild card spot but nothing is secure just yet! Considering that factor as well as this pitching match-up, we should see a very tight low-scoring pitchers duel in this one. Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Yankees and is off a rare bad start which means you know he will be 100% focused on a bounce back effort here. Cole is 9-4 with a 2.95 ERA in his road starts this season. The O/U is 4-10 in those 14 outings away from Yankee Stadium this season. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston here and he has been particularly strong at Fenway Park this season with a 6-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. Eovaldi enters this outing with a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. The under is perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts with the Yankees and he has compiled a 2.55 ERA in those outings. The under is a perfect 2-0 in Cole's last 2 starts versus Boston and he has totaled 19 strikeouts in the 11 innings over those 2 starts against the Red Sox. The Yankees are off an over but 6 of 8 games before that had stayed under the total. The under trend resumes here. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 8 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 3:35 PM ET – Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners in this one. The Seattle southpaw has been having a dreadful time on the road. From mid-August to now he has made 3 road starts and has been hammered in every single one. The cumulative stats from those outings are 14 earned runs on 18 hits and 7 walks in only 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work! Kikuchi's first start out of the All Star break was also on the road and he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Though he has had some success against the A's this season, his current road struggles have been consistent and have been ugly. Look for him to get rocked in this outing. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt here and this is going to likely be a tough outing for him. He took a line drive to the face when on the mound August 17th and suffered multiple facial fractures. This will be his first start after that incident and, mentally, that is a tough situation to simply immediately bounce back from. Also going against Bassitt here is the fact he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts versus the Mariners this season. Seattle has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the victories. The Mariners are 12-5-1 to the over in their last 18 games. That includes a recent stretch of unders but given this pitching match-up, the over trending is very likely to resume here. There is strong support for expecting each starter to be a bit "off" in this one and the hitters will take advantage! This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140 on Run Line over New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters but Keegan Akin is a lefty so why would that matter? Here is the key point we are making: the last two lefties the Phillies faced were the crafty veteran Rich Hill and the very talented John Means of the Orioles. Keegan Akin does not fall into either of those two categories of southpaws! He is in his 2nd MLB season and has gone 2-10 with a 6.93 ERA in 23 games (16 starts).. In his 10 road starts this season Akin is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA! The Orioles lefty is highly likely to struggle here and that means this game should be a blowout because the Baltimore bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in the majors this season. To stay in this game the Orioles would have to score plenty and, honestly, they will be lucky to score even a few in this one! Baltimore is up against a surging Zack Wheeler. The Phillies right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA this month and has registered 23 strikeouts in 17 and 2 / 3 innings during this stretch. Wheeler has a 2.04 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Orioles. More dominance expected here and he should get plenty of run support as Akin gets rocked again in this one. The Phillies won by just 1 run yesterday but note that Philadelphia's 77 wins this season have included 48 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 103 losses have included 83 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 in home games this season and Baltimore is 28-73 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -300 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-21-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line |
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09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET – After some struggles, the Yankees seemed to turn the corner with a 5-2 stretch over 7 games. That was before back to back losses to wrap up their series with Cleveland. The good news for the Yankees is they now welcome the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx and we look for New York to respond after the back to back losses. Texas has lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers have been held to 2 or less runs in all 5 of those games! The Yankees got drilled yesterday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding this. Rookie AJ Alexy starts for Rangers here and he just got used in a long relief role and got crushed so this takes the luster off his first two starts being successful. Look for a carry-over from the rough relief outing right into a tough outing in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for rookie starters! Yankees start Nestor Cortes and the lefty has a 2.70 ERA in his 11 starts this season and New York has won all but 3 of those starts! The Yankees are 4-1 in his home starts this season. The Yankees get back on track here and note that New York's 83 wins have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 94 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 53-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-52 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants -116 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -120 over Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – The Braves have lost 14 of 22 games including 4 straight defeats. The Giants have won 13 of their last 16 games and already took the first two games of this 3-game set. Atlanta is looking to avoid the sweep here but that kind of wagering angle tends to be overplayed. The fact is simply that the Giants are the much hotter team plus have home field edge here. San Francisco is 49-25 at home this season. The Braves are 28-38 this season against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has fared okay against divisional foes and against the NL Central Division teams but against the NL West as well as the AL teams, the Braves are a combined 14-28 this year! San Francisco is 38-17 in day games and 21-10 against NL East teams this season. Braves are only 6-6 in Fried road starts this season though he has a respectable 3.90 ERA. DeSclafani has been the hotter pitcher of late with a 2.12 ERA his last 3 starts, all Giants wins, and San Francisco is 9-3 in his home starts this season. The Giants also have the better bullpen in this match-up. We have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus bullpen edge and overall situational edge both rest squarely with the red hot home team over the slumping road team in this one. We will grab the home team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet San Francisco Giants -120 |