Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-15-23 | White Sox v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
#929/930 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 9-0 Braves win yet Atlanta had only 8 hits in the victory. There is some value here today with that unusual final scoreline yesterday plus the fact that Lance Lynn shows an unusually high ERA which is masking the fact that he has been pitching much better of late. Lynn has allowed just 25 hits in 31 innings over his last 5 starts. Also, Lynn has struck out 41 batters in 26 innings over his last 4 starts. He has had great swing and miss stuff over the past month and should pick up right where he left off before the All-Star break as the 2nd half of the season gets underway. Lynn will be opposed by Spencer Strider of the Braves and he has fantastic numbers. Strider is 7-0 his last 7 decisions on the mound. Strider also has been piling up strikeouts with 39 K's over 26 innings in his last 4 starts. He has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in those 4 starts. That is an average of only 1 earned run per start and Strider is further supported by a Braves bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the National League. The White Sox have lost 6 of 7 games and scored an average of only 2 runs per game in those 6 defeats. The Braves have been scoring much better but, prior to yesterday, only 1 of their last 6 games had seen Atlanta total 7 or more runs and the other 5 games in that 6-game stretch averaged just 4 Braves runs per game. 4 to 2 sounds about right in this one and plus gives us some extra cushion with this total at 8.5 here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -115 or -120 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers. This is a big game right of the gate in the Central Division as the 2nd half of the season gets underway post-All Star Break. We like the Brewers here as they have won 6 of last 8 road games and are taking on a divisional foe that has lost 3 of 5 home games and has not been great at home this season. In fact, the Reds 23-21 record at home is no better than the Brewers road record which is also 23-21. Each club has played 26 divisional games and Milwaukee is 17-9 in divisional action while Cincinnati is 12-14 in divisional games. All of the above supports a value play on the Brewers here and that is before even analyzing the expected pitching match-up here which is Corbin Burnes (with a big edge) against Graham Ashcraft. Note that Burnes is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in night games and opponents hitting just .202 against him under the lights. Ashcraft, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 7.95 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents hitting .297 against him in his home ballpark. Though Ashcraft had a good start in his only outing so far in July, let us not forget that he got completely steamrolled with a combined 1-6 record in his 10 starts in May/June and a very ugly ERA of 9.66 over the starts spanning those two most recent months. Burnes has been great in both starts against the Reds this season while Ashcraft got destroyed in his only start against Milwaukee this season. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -115 to -120. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 1:40 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Cleveland rolled 10-6 yesterday and piled up 18 hits. Kansas City is 12-45 this season against teams with a winning record. KC has lost 6 straight games and 10 of 13. The Royals are known for getting blown out and 15 of last 16 losses have been by 2+ runs. Cleveland has won 13 of 19 games. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Shane Bieber dominated the Royals earlier this season and has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs the last 4 starts he has made against KC! The Royals get Ryan Yarbrough back for this one most likely. The southpaw started his MLB career with some solid numbers the first two years but has since gone 14-23 and his combined ERA 2021-23 is a 5.03 ERA and he is on pace for his 3rd losing season the last 4. Remember that Yarbrough has missed significant time due to taking a line drive to the head. He suffered multiple fractures from that and his first start back could be a little rough. Either way, we like the home team here without regard to the starting pitchers. Cleveland is hotter and stronger than the ice cold Royals and the Guardians bullpen ERA is 3.11 and ranks 2nd in the majors while the Royals 5.14 ERA ranks their bullpen 2nd to LAST in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!
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07-08-23 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 7-3 by Boston yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 11 batters that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .208 or less on the season! Boston, on the other hand, had hitters in their lineup from leadoff through the #5 spot that all are hitting better than .250 on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Red Sox have a pitching edge here too. James Paxton is coming off a fantastic June in which he went undefeated in his 5 starts and produced a 1.74 ERA. The Boston southpaw also has a 1.69 ERA in his 3 home starts this season and was solid in his only day game start this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send Paul Blackburn to the mound. The righty has a 5.06 ERA in road starts and a 4.98 ERA in day game starts. Opponents hit .282 against Blackburn last month and he began July by getting rocked for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Oakland is 17-55 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston is on a 3-game winning streak and 34 of their 46 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-34 in day games and 48 of their 65 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is Boston bullpen is respectable and ranks in the middle of the pack while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. Also, Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in the league while Oakland is one of the worst road hitting teams in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Red Sox. Lay it!
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees -164 | 3-0 | Loss | -164 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -165 over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Cubs have Jameson Taillon listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Carlos Rodon here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Rodon and a play against Taillon so we are in good shape either way. The Cubs have now lost 8 of 11 games after losing at Milwaukee yesterday. The Yankees are coming off a complete home demolition at the hands of the Orioles yesterday so this is a great spot to look for a bounce back here. Rodon is ready to make his season debut and he has looked fantastic in his minor league starts leading up to this. He is more than ready to get back to big league action and will take advantage of the slumping Cubs here. The Yankees entered Game 2 of the Baltimore series having won 7 of 10 games. Now, off B2B losses, New York bounces back. Chicago enters this one having allowed at least 6 runs in 5 of last 6 games. Taillon enters this start having allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of last 10 starts. With Rodon coming off a dominating season and looking sharp in his rehab, he gives the home team a dominating edge over the visiting Cubs in this one. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the home team even at a rather sizable yet very fair money line price in this one. Look for the Yankees to get the win this evening in the Bronx. |
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07-06-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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07-05-23 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Alec Marsh for the Royals and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Royals bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.06 ERA. This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 which is an excellent value and set-ups don't get much better than this. The Royals 8 of last 10 road games have totaled double digits in runs and we only need 9 runs to be a winner here. The Twins 6 of last 7 home games have totaled at least 9 runs. Kansas City's Marsh has made only 1 MLB start and he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings and was hit hard plus had issues with his command. Looking at his minor league career stats this should not come as a surprise. Marsh is 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in his minor league career! Now he faces a red hot Twins lineup. The hosts should score very well but we look for plenty of success from the road dog here too. That's because Minnesota's Lopez has struggled at home this season. He has been great on the road but has a 5.94 ERA in his home outings. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season he is facing the Royals so they are very familiar with him. Also, the most recent time was in Minneapolis and KC got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings in that late April outing. Kansas City has scored an average of 5 runs per game over the last 6 games. The Twins have won 4 straight home games and in those victories they have averaged 7 runs scored per win! Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Kyle Freeland for the Rockies and Brandon Bielak for the Astros. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Rockies bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Colorado bullpen is ranked dead last in the NL so far this season. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. The Rockies most recent game totaled 23 runs Sunday. The Astros most recent game totaled 23 runs yesterday. Colorado's Freeland has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings in his 3 most recent starts. The Astros Bielak has struggled so much that his most recent start was in the minors. Now he is back at the MLB level but has not started in awhile. Bielak has allowed 12 earned runs on 24 hits in 16.2 innings over his last 3 MLB starts. 9 of the last 15 Astros games have totaled at least 11 runs! Houston has scored an average of 7 runs per game over the last 11 games. 9 of the last 14 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs! Colorado has scored an average of 6 runs in the last 5 games. Over is the call in this one Tuesday afternoon. |
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07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves (-155) over Cleveland Guardians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals and the Athletics are the only two teams in baseball that have less than 33 wins and each of those clubs have 25 or less wins on the season! What does that have to do with this play? Well, the Guardians are starting rookie right-hander Gavin Williams in this one and he has been solid in his first two starts but those are the two teams he has faced - Oakland and Kansas City. Now Williams is facing an Atlanta team that has won 8 straight games and is the hottest team in the majors plus has the highest winning percentage (.675) in the majors with a stellar 56-27 record on the year. Atlanta is worth a strong rated play in this price range as the Braves are on a win streak and the Guardians are still a game below .500 on the season. Also, Cleveland has been nothing special at home this season and plus they are facing a tough Braves hurler in Bryce Elder in this one. Elder has a 1.43 ERA in his 6 road starts this season and is undefeated in those with a 3-0 record and a .195 batting average against away from home on the year! Atlanta has won 23 of 26 games so when you consider all factors in this match-up, this is a rare opportunity to get one of the best teams in baseball and the hottest team in MLB at a reasonable money line price. We will take advantage and grab that opportunity. Lay it! |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it! |
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07-01-23 | White Sox -1.5 v. A's | 6-7 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
#917 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago White Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland entered this series 21-62 and with 46 of their 62 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's entered this series just 16-45 against right-handed starters and here they are expected to face a good one as Dylan Cease is likely to draw this start. Cease is coming off a fantastic June in which he had a 2.20 ERA for the month and and it is no fluke as he held opponents to a .192 batting average for the month. The Athletics were expected to start James Karpielian but he landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. That means this is likely going to be a bullpen game for the A's and Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.75 ERA. In other words, a huge edge for a red hot Cease and the much stronger team being on the road. The A's actually won last night's game but have only had 3 winning streaks this season and so the odds of winning B2B games is between slim and none. When off a standalone win this season, the A's have gone 3-10 this year. You have one of the worst teams in MLB off a rare win and against a solid pitcher. With A's likely going with a bullpen game here, this is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -140 money range with the White Sox. Lay it! |
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06-30-23 | Padres v. Reds OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Graham Ashcraft for Cincinnati and Seth Lugo for the Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams off a stretch of high-scoring games plus match-ups at Great American Ballpark continue to trend toward big runs. Also, the Reds bullpen has an ERA that ranks them in the middle of the pack this season. Recently, neither pen has been special. The Reds last 17 home games have averaged totaling 11 runs apiece with and 11 of last 19 home games totaling at least 11 runs. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres are ready for a breakout game at the plate after a tough little stretch at the plate following a run in which they won 9 of 15 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game. San Diego is expected to have Lugo on the mound and he has allowed a .275 batting average this season. As for Reds starter Ashcraft, he has allowed 47 earned runs in just 33 innings over his last 8 starts this season! The Reds are scoring an average of 5 runs per game when at home this season but they also are giving up 5.2 runs per game on the year and the Padres can score well here against Ashcraft and a suspect bullpen. Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. Over is the call in this one early Friday evening. |
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06-29-23 | Guardians -153 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -153 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
#911 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians (-150) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have lost 22 of 80 games this season and continue to be one of the worst teams in the league. Kansas City has scored only 2.3 runs per game in last 16 losses. They are likely to struggle against the Guardians Shane Bieber here. The Cleveland starter is 59-31 in his MLB career and having a solid season. Overall, his last 4 seasons combined, he has a 2.91 ERA and while Bieber in his prime in his late 20s, it is a different story for the 39-year old Royals starter in this one. Zack Greinke still gets some respect from the betting markets as he is a Cy Young winner, 6-time All-Star, and twice led the AL in ERA for the season! However, that was then and this is now and it looks like the aging veteran is nearing the end. Greinke is 1-8 with a 5.31 ERA this season. This is a play for us regardless of the starting pitchers however as it is a play against a very bad Royals team. We considered the run line here which is available at even money but no team in the majors has played in as many one-run games this season as Cleveland has. Also, the Guardians have more run line wins (16) than any other team in the AL so far this season. So we will hold our rating at 3* on this one and look for Cleveland to get the cash on the money line in this one. In terms of bullpens, the Guardians rank #1 in the majors for WHIP with a 1.15 and Cleveland's 2.92 ERA ranks them 2nd in the majors! Compare this to a Royals bullpen that has a 1.48 WHIP and a 5.06 ERA which both rank them near the very bottom of the majors. Kansas City has lost 20 of 25 games! Cleveland has won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs in the 7 victories! Lay the money line with the road favorite here! |
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06-28-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Taj Bradley the expected starter for the Rays and he has been a strikeout machine. Zac Gallen the expected starter for the Diamondbacks and he has been fantastic at home this season. Gallen is 7-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his 8 home starts this season! So why not a bet on Arizona here rather than the under? Well, we expect the Diamondbacks lineup to struggle with the Rays in this one. Bradley has a 2.13 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, the Rays bullpen ranks 4th for BAA and 8th for WHIP out of all 30 teams in the majors. The way we see it, the Dbacks lineup struggles here no matter who is on the mound for Tampa Bay. As for the Rays lineup, they are facing a top-notch starting pitcher here. Gallen has been strong for years and has been nearly unhittable this season at home as evidenced by his 1.00 ERA on the year at home. Entering this game, 12 of last 15 Rays road games have totaled 8 or less runs. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-26-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 47 of 77 games this season and that includes having lost 27 of 41 night games. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that did not have a winning record, they have won 23 of 34 games. So here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 29 of their 37 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 33 of their 47 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Luis Castillo here and he has been dominating at home this season. Castillo is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and holding opponents to a .169 batting average in his 9 starts in Seattle on the season. The Nationals are starting Trevor Williams here most likely and he is off a rare strong start after 4 straight starts in which he was hit quite hard. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks and Giants both continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens are okay but not great as they rank in that middle 10 of the 30 teams in the majors based on bullpen ERA numbers so far this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.12 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 3.77 ERA on the season. As for the starters here, DeSclafani had a good April but he has not been overly impressive since and, in fact, has been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts. In those 6 starts he has allowed 22 earned runs in 29 innings! We look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard as they remain hot at the plate. Also, the Giants should pound Nelson. The Dbacks righty has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Nelson has struggled, other than one scoreless outing in this stretch, and has given up 16 earned runs on 30 hits in 19.2 innings in those other 4 starts. The Giants are off a 7-6 win over Arizona and that means a SF game totaled double digits in runs for the 9th time in 11 games. 13 of Diamondbacks last 19 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as the wind will be blowing out a good clip for this afternoon game at Oracle Park and afternoon games in San Francisco do tend to invite more scoring than chilly night games here in the summer. We look for plenty of runs today regardless of the starting pitchers so we will go with "action" on the pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon. |
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06-24-23 | Rangers -135 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -135 over New York Yankees, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Jonathan Gray is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray had allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 straight starts before he got rocked in his last start. Also, he gave up just 22 hits in just 43 innings in those 6 starts. Gray is having a fantastic season and his last start notwithstanding, has been pitching lights out. Luis Severino has been trending the opposite direction and is getting absolutely crushed in June. Severino has allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings in the month of June and opponents are hitting .349 against him this month. The Rangers are off a 4-2 extra innings win yesterday here in the Bronx and have been red hot with wins in 33 of last 50 games. The Yankees have been going the other direction with losses in 15 of 26 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts the way he has been going while Severino has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
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06-23-23 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - There is some rain in the Detroit area this morning but it is expected to move out by mid-day today so the weather should be fine for this early evening match-up. Little cool for late June standards and a light northerly breeze should also help the cause here in a park that is known for being friendly to the pitchers. The Twins and Tigers bullpen each have a WHIP that ranks them in the top ten in the majors. As for the starters here, Kenta Maeda has been very sharp in his minor league rehab appearances leading into this one. The Minnesota righty has his MLB numbers inflated this season due to just one bad start and this is is a guy that can be very tough to hit. Here Maeda will take advantage of facing a Tigers team that ranks as one of the worst in the majors at the plate with a .229 batting average and a .365 slugging percentage. As for Detroit starter Joey Wentz, he shows some ugly full season numbers to the betting markets but he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Remember he was strong last season too and he appears to be rounding into form again now. Wentz is off a fantastic start against these same Twins as he held them to just 2 hits while striking out 9 in 6.1 innings of work! That start was in Minnesota and now he gets them in his home park in Detroit. Note that the Twins are hitting .219 in road games this season. That ranks them 29th of 30 teams in the majors. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this line to 8.5 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-22-23 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -155 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Royals are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 74 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 40 games against teams with a winning record! Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 40 games. So here you have an 80% play on situation versus an 80% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin. The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers? The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he has been dominating this season. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. Last year he held hitters under a .200 batting average and he had a strong 2.54 ERA on the season. The Royals are taking a bullpen approach to this game with Jose Cuas likely to get the start but only going to go about 1 inning as an opener. So what about the KC bullpen since we will be seeing plenty of it in this one? The Royals relief pitching is a combined 10-17 with a 4.82 ERA and the late inning pen has been bad too with 10 of 20 saves being blown. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a -155 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-21-23 | A's v. Guardians -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
#920 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have the #2 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .218 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Cleveland also ranks 2nd with a 2.98 ERA while the Athletics rank dead last at 30th with a 5.51 ERA. Oakland is on a 6-game losing streak. That included a tough beat yesterday for the league-worst Athletics. The manner of loss yesterday - blew 2-run lead in bottom of 7th and lost in 10th inning - was a 6th straight defeat and will be really tough to come back from. The Athletics are again in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Oakland's 56 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin! The Guardians 34 wins have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor that a Guardians win will be coming by a multi-run margin. Cleveland has won 11 of 17 games versus AL West opponents this season. As for the pitching match-up here, the Athletics Paul Blackburn has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and he is still settling in after his start to this season was delayed until late May! The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams and though this is his MLB debut, the rookie right-hander is highly touted for a reason. He has excelled at all levels of the minors and he has been piling up strikeouts. The A's 6-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and, after some recent 1-run losses, don't be surprised when this one turns into another blowout defeat by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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06-20-23 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
#955/956 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 9 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Jordan Montgomery for the Cardinals and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both the bullpens certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at ERA, the Nationals bullpen is ranked 27th so far this season and the Cardinals bullpen is ranked 19th for ERA and 21st for WHIP. Gore is 1-3 with a 4.20 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents are hitting .291 against him in his outings in DC. In his only prior MLB season, last year, he also had an ERA more than 2 runs higher at home than on the road. Montgomery has allowed 25 hits in 18.2 innings in his last 4 road starts. Yesterday the Nationals had 11 hits (the Cardinals did too) and it was the only game on the board in which both clubs reached the double digit mark in hits. That one finished 8-6 and totaled 14 runs and a similar result tonight would not surprise us in the least. Washington hosting a Cardinals team that has won 4 of last 5 road games including 3 in a row. St Louis has scored an average of 7 runs in the 3 victories. The Nationals have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 9 games and we look for another wild one tonight in which each club exceeds the 4-run mark here and this one sets up nicely for another slugfest. Over is the call here Tuesday evening. |
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06-19-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Osvaldo Bido for the Pirates and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both of the bullpens certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at ERA, the Pirates bullpen and the Cubs bullpen both rank in the bottom fourth of the league so far this season. The Cubs have won 7 of 9 games and have been hitting well during this stretch and averaging 6 runs scored in those 9 games. Look for Chicago to maintain this hotter stretch of hitting. They will be helped here by the fact they just faced Bido and the Pirates bullpen last week. Also, Pittsburgh just faced Smyly and the Cubs bullpen last week and the Pirates, season after season, do tend to hit better when at home. Pittsburgh should take advantage of facing a struggling Cubs pitcher, Smyly, in this one as he has struggled and been hit hard in his last 4 starts. The Cubs lefty has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings in this 4-game stretch! The Pirates also have a starter, Bido, likely to struggle on the mound for this one. The right-hander is a rookie making just his 2nd start and giving the Cubs a quick second look at him. He went 10-20 with an ERA in the 5.00 range in the last 3 seasons combined at the minor league level. More of the same here at home in just his 2nd MLB start. Over is the call in this one Monday evening. |
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06-18-23 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -118 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Blue Jays are only 20-20 in road games this season and the loss yesterday dropped Toronto to 22-28 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 23-13 in home games this season. We get line value here because Chris Bassitt has decent overall numbers on the season and is on the mound for the Blue Jays in this one. The fact is he is not pitching as well as Jonathan Gray this season plus Bassitt is known, throughout his career, for struggling more on the road than at home. His ERA throughout his career on the road has included seasons with ERA numbers of 5.12, 7.47, 4.54, 4.56, 4.00 and this season's 5.77 thus far. Basitt's road struggles have resumed this year as the season has gone along as he has been roughed up in 3 of his last 4 appearances on the road including 8 homers allowed in those 3 ugly road appearances! He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season at home where they are ranked #2 for batting average (.281) and also #1 with a .491 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6.3 RPG this season at home. They will send red hot Gray to the mound. He has allowed just 4 earned runs total in his last 6 starts! For the season Gray has an ERA of 2.32 overall and has enjoyed pitching in afternoon action as he has a 3-0 record in day starts. This is the 4th straight season that Gray has been stronger in day games than in night action. Bassitt is 0-2 with a very ugly 14.59 ERA in his 3 day starts this season. Take the Rangers |
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06-17-23 | Cardinals v. Mets -143 | 5-3 | Loss | -143 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Mets -150 over St Louis Cardinals, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We are going with action on pitchers here as we fade a struggling Cardinals team that has lost 6 straight games. We will begin with talking about the expected starting pitchers though our play is action. Kodai Senga takes the mound for NY after coming over from Japan - where he had a very successful career - prior to this season. The 30-year old Senga has been a bright spot for the Mets with 6-3 record and an ERA of 3.34 and a batting average allowed of .205 on the season. He has not allowed more than 3 ER’s in a game since mid May. Menga has a key edge here in that he has not faced a single player on the St Louis roster that has any career at bats vs him. He hasn’t faced the Cards this season and we like Menga to perform very well today as this will be the first ever look this lineup has facing him. Adam Wainwright goes for St Louis today. He’s having a rough season and his ERA is on the rise this season. His ERA is 5.79 on the season. He also has a history of road struggles in his lengthy career. Just about every season it seems Wainwright has uglier numbers on the road. Some of the more recent ones with ugly road numbers include 6.18 ERA in 2016, 7.32 ERA in 2017, 6.22 ERA in 2019, 4-8 record with 4.73 ERA in 2022. The Cards are having a rough season and are dead last in the NL Central. Also, against teams that are from the NL East, their record is 0-4. The Mets, on the other hand, went 54-27 at home last season and are now 71-40 the past two seasons combined in home games. While St Louis has no experience against Senga, NY has players with a combined 139 at bats against Wainwright. We like them to break out offensively this afternoon and New York has scored 39 runs in their last 7 games! The Cards, on the other hand, have lost 13 of 16 games and have averaged scoring 2.9 runs per game in their last 20 games. Home blowout likely here. Lay it! |
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06-16-23 | Angels v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
#965/966 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Patrick Sandoval for the Angels and Brady Singer for the Royals. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Royals bullpen certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at WHIP, the Royals bullpen is ranked 29th so far this season. The Angels have won 9 of 11 games and have been hitting well the past two weeks including averaging 5.6 runs scored last 10 games and 6.6 runs per game last 5 games. Look for LA to maintain this hotter stretch of hitting. We are aware that Urshela and Rendon likely are out for the Angels for this one but Urshela has not been as strong on the road this season and Rendon is a shell of the player he was about 5 seasons ago. The Angels have plenty of depth and power in their lineup. As for KC, the Royals do tend to hit better when at home. Though the Royals might be the worst team in baseball, their .407 slugging percentage at home does rank them in the middle of the pack, 15th, in MLB so far this season. KC should take advantage of facing a struggling Angels pitcher, Sandoval, in this one as he has struggled in his last 3 starts. The Angels lefty has allowed 26 hits in 14.1 innings in this 3-game stretch! The Royals also have a struggling starter, Singer, taking the mound for this one. The right-hander is 4-5 with a 6.58 ERA this season and just got roughed up at Baltimore. More of the same here at home. The Royals have scored 4 runs in each of last 3 home games and 4 of last 5 at home and should top that here too considering the struggles of Sandoval. Over is the call in this one Friday night. |
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06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers -125 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -125 over Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Los Angeles has been red hot but this is a tough spot for them and we’ll fade the Angels tonight. They won Tuesday for their 8th win in 9 games but they lost to the Rangers yesterday in the third game of this 4-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Angels to just 12-20 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 22-11 in home games this season. We get line value here because Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels in this one. The fact is he is not pitching as well as Nathan Eovaldi this season plus Ohtani is known, throughout his career, for struggling more on the road than at home. His ERA throughout his career is practically twice as high on the road compared to at home in Anaheim where he does tend to be tough. Ohtani's road struggles have resumed as this season has gone on as he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 appearances on the road! He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season at home where they are ranked #1 for batting average (.287) and also #1 with a .500 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6.6 RPG this season at home. They will send red hot Eovaldi to the mound. We look for him to bounce back after a rare tougher outing vs Rays in Tampa in his most recent start. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 2.49 and a 9-2 record. Prior to the start versus TB, in looking at his 6 starts leading into that one, he allowed 1 earned run in one of them and 0 earned runs in 4 of them! Eovaldi has been rock solid this season including an 8-0 record in his last 10 starts! Take the Rangers |
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06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Twins have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .223 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Minnesota ranks 7th with a 3.50 ERA while the Brewers rank 22nd with a 4.29 ERA. Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak. That included an ugly series sweep at home at the hands of the league-worst Athletics. Then, the manner of loss yesterday in the Brewers 5th straight defeat will be really tough to come back from. Milwaukee led that game 5-3 going to bottom of the 9th but then allowed 4 runs including 2 on a walk-off homer that finished them off. The Brewers are in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Milwaukee's 33 losses this season have included 29 by at least a 2-run margin! The Twins 34 wins have included 27 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor a Twins win coming by a multi-run margin. Minnesota has won 15 of 25 home games since late April. The Brewers have lost 13 of 20 road games over roughly the same time frame. As for the pitching match-up here, the Brewers Colin Rea has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 3 road starts! The Twins counter with Bailey Ober and he has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .200 batting average in his 9 starts this season. The Brewers 5-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and 12 of the last 13 losses for Milwaukee have been by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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06-13-23 | Reds +100 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
#921 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati Reds +100 over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Royals have lost 7 straight games and, along with Oakland (18 wins also), are the only two teams in the league with less than 26 wins on the year. The thing is, Kansas City is now the worst team in the majors without a shadow of a doubt as there are no signs of life here. The Athletics have won 6 straight games and are showing signs of life but these Royals have lost 17 of 21 games including 7 in a row. We like the Reds no matter who the starting pitchers are in this one but will mention that KC is expected to start Jordan Lyles here. The right-hander is 0-10 with a 6.84 ERA and the Royals are 0-13 in his starts this season! The Reds likely starter is Brandon Williamson. He is a rookie but the southpaw has been respectable so far with holding opponents to a .240 batting average in his 5 starts. In this one, Williamson is taking on one of the weakest lineups in baseball and he is sure to take advantage. The Royals have scored just 2.5 runs per game in their last 11 games - a 1-10 stretch! The Cincinnati offense has been much better and that has helped lead the way to an 11-5 run on the road! Away from home, the Reds are averaging nearly 6 RPG in this 16-game stretch. We like them to have continued success here as the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in MLB too and look for KC to drop to 0-14 in games started by Lyles this season. Take the Reds on the road. |
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06-12-23 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Zack Greinke for the Royals. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at WHIP, the Reds bullpen is ranked 18th out of 30 teams and the Royals bullpen is ranked 29th so far this season. The Reds have won 12 of 20 games and have been hitting well in recent weeks. Prior to yesterday's 4-3 victory staying under the total, Cincinnati had 15 of 19 games total at least 9 runs during this hotter stretch of hitting. Though KC has not been hitting well they have been on the road. The Royals do tend to hit better when at home. Though the Royals might be the worst team in baseball, their .404 slugging percentage at home does rank them in the middle of the pack, 14th, in MLB so far this season. KC should take advantage of facing a struggling Reds pitcher, Weaver, in this one as he has had only 2 good starts out of 9 this season. In his other 7 starts, Weaver has allowed 32 earned runs in 35.2 innings! The Royals also have a struggling starter, Greinke, taking the mound for this one. The veteran right-hander is 1-6 with a 4.59 ERA this season and just got roughed up at Miami. More of the same here at home. Over is the call in this one Monday night.
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06-11-23 | Royals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 112 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #5 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 17-10 record and 3.34 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 9-14 record and 4.86 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 8-32 in games against teams with a winning record this season! Baltimore is 21-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 46 losses this season have included 39 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Gibson has a 7-3 record and 3.87 ERA this season! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings over his last 4 starts! The Royals counter with opener Carlos Hernandez but Mike Mayers is expected to get the bulk of the work here. This is another reason we like action on the starting pitchers. Hernandez, the past two seasons, has an 0-8 mark and 6.29 ERA. As for Mayers, he has made only 4 appearances so far this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 road outings. The first one, walks were an issue and now in his most recent outing he got crushed at Miami. Orioles enter this game with wins in 13 of 18 games against Central Division opponents this season. Of last 25 wins, 20 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this one on a 5-game losing streak and have lost 23 of last 30 on the road. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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06-10-23 | Astros v. Guardians UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
#969/970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8 Runs – Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET - Yesterday's crazy 10-9 final in 14 innings notwithstanding, both teams have been struggling at times of late to score runs and you have two trustworthy starting pitchers on the mound and two rock solid bullpens (ranked 2nd and 3rd for bullpen ERA in the majors) as well. Cleveland has won 5 of 7 games but actually scored an average of just 3 runs in their first 5 games of this 7-game stretch! In last 8 games at home in Cleveland, prior to big games in the series finale with Boston and series opener with these Astros, the Guardians scored an average of only 2.9 runs per game. The Astros are 4-6 last 10 road games. They have often struggled to score many runs on the road in recent road trips. Overall, in last 6 games whether home or away, Houston has been held to 2 or less runs scored in 4 of the 6. Before the high-scoring loss to open up this series, the Astros had allowed an average of only 2.9 runs in their last 7 games on the road. As we mentioned above, very solid bullpens supporting these two starters and both starters appear primed for big starts here. JP France, away from home, has held opponents to a .175 BAA and he has delivered with a 1.04 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He also was strong in the minors before being called up this season. Taking a look at the Guardians Triston McKenzie, he has returned from injury and looked great in his first start back and this was after dominating in his minor league rehab starts too! This comes as no surprise as McKenzie had a 2.77 ERA in his 13 home starts last season. This game has the makings of a 3-2 final and could even finish as a 2-1 pitchers duel. The pitching dominates again after a rare aberration in the series opener yesterday. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Tigers OVER 8 | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
#925/926 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 8 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - This is a contrarian play but we are already happy to see additional value here as, unsurprisingly, a total that opened at 8.5 has dropped to an 8 nearly everywhere. We understand what the betting markets are looking at here but the odds makers had the better assessment. That being said, we are riding with the over in this one because the Tigers, though off a tough road trip, have been a different club when at home this season. In last two dozen games at home, Detroit is a respectable 14-10. Of the Tigers 19 home games dating back to late April, 14 of the 19 have totaled at least 8 runs. There is simply too much value here to pass up. Lorenzen has solid numbers as a starting pitcher for the Tigers this season but last season he had a 4.24 ERA and the year before he had a 5.59 ERA. We are not completely sold on him just yet. Also, the Diamondbacks slugging percentage in road games this season ranks 6th in the majors! Both of these bullpens have only mediocre stats so far this season. Arizona starting pitcher Kelly is throwing well but, throughout his career, his ERA numbers have been higher on the road than at home. So far this season Kelly has fantastic numbers on the road in his 4 starts away from home but there will be a regression to the mean. It starts here as Tigers bounce back at the plate with a return to home. Arizona has won 17 of 24 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Tigers match them run for run here. Warm temps in Detroit this evening and should be a perfect situation for a higher scoring game then most are expecting here. We like Over the total in this one. |
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06-08-23 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 or 8.5 Runs – Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - Both teams have been struggling at times of late to score runs and you have two red hot starting pitchers on the mound and two rock solid bullpens as well. Toronto has won 9 of 12 games but actually scored 3 or less runs in 4 of last 6 wins! In last 7 games at home in Toronto, the Blue Jays have had only one big game at the plate. In the other 6 games they have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game. The Astros are 4-4 last 8 road games. They have often struggled to score many runs on the road in recent road trips. Overall, in last 4 games whether home or away, Houston has been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of the 4. Even off B2B losses in this series, the Astros have allowed an average of only 3 runs in their last 6 games on the road. As we mentioned above, very solid bullpens supporting these two starters and both appear primed for big starts here. Framber Valdez is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. Overall he has been dominant as Valdez allowed 4 earned runs in 1 of his dozen starts this season but allowed a total of only 15 earned runs in the other 11 starts! Taking a look at the Jays Jose Berrios, he is red hot! Berrios was 7-2 at home last season and he has a 2.22 ERA in his 4 home starts this season. Also, the overall numbers for Berrios are impacted by 3 tougher road starts including his very first 2 starts this season. Other than those 3 (again, all on the road and a couple from two months back!) he has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs in 9 starts! This game has the makings of a 3-2 final and could even finish as a 2-1 pitchers duel. The pitching dominates again in this series in Thursday's game. We are going strong with the Under in this one.
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06-07-23 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 11.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - This total is just too much. We understand it based on the lack of experience of the Reds starter here and the fact that the Dodgers starter has struggled this season plus yesterday's game totaled 17 runs. However, it is simply too much especially when you take a closer look at the team and starting pitcher aspects and why this number is inflated. The Reds, prior to yesterday, had averaged just 3.7 runs scored in their last 6 games. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's 9-8 loss in Cincinnati in Game 1 of this series, had scored an average of 4.5 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Reds are expected to start rookie Brandon Williamson here and the lefty has held opponents to a .215 batting average against in 2023 thus far. This should be a solid duel here in this one as the Dodgers are expected to start Noah Syndergaard this evening. The LA right-hander is off a tough start and has been rumored to have his starting spot on the line due to struggles this season. However, all the runs against him were with two outs each time in his most recent outing against the Nationals last week. Syndergaard pitched better than his line shows but gave up some bigger hits with 2-outs. Look for Syndergaard to bounce back here. He had allowed 16 hits in 15 innings in his 3 starts prior to that one. The fact is, with less than 2 outs he was unscored on in his last start. We think the savvy 8-year vet is going to step up his game here and give the Reds trouble and this large total gives us a lot of wiggle room here! Let’s take the Under in this one.
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06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 131 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - With yesterday's 9 to 6 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 9-3 run over their past dozen games. This includes 4 straight wins. Also, 8 of the 9 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin! Kansas City certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 18-42 on the season and with 12 of their last 13 losses by 2 or more runs. The Royals enter this match-up having gone 6-27 in games against teams with a winning record this season! They are 5-11 against left-handed starters and face a tough one here as Jesus Luzardo expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.05 ERA so far this season, he had a 3.32 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here and he does have a 3.35 ERA at home this season. As for the expected Kansas City starter, Zack Greinke, he has been decent this season but is 0-10 the last two seasons combined in his road starts. Throughout his career, Greinke is known for struggling more on the road than at home and that has been the trend with him again this season. Also, going against Greinke here is the fact that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like KC that struggles at the plate plus ranks just ahead of Oakland in terms of having a league-worst bullpen. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a solid comeback price in the +130 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
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06-05-23 | Rays -151 v. Red Sox | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
#915 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -150 over Boston Red Sox, Monday at 4:05 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Red Sox have Brayan Bello listed as a starter and the Rays are expected to start Shane McClanahan here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on McClanahan and a play against Bello so we are in good shape either way. The Rays are 19-9 in day games this season. The Red Sox are 8-9 in divisional games this season. Tampa Bay is 10-2 in the dozen starts McClanahan (8-1 record) has made this season and he was 8-0 on the year before being charged with his first loss of the season - despite allowing only 2 earned runs in 5.2 innings - in his most recent start. As for Bello, he is just 3-3 this season and also he allowed 9 earned runs in 8 innings in his 2 starts against TB in his career. Boston has lost 9 of 13 games overall. Even just looking at their last dozen games at home in Fenway Park, the Red Sox have lost 8 of last 12 games. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a moderate yet very fair money line price in this one. Look for Tampa Bay to keep rolling as they have the best record in the league this season and continue to be consistently strong. Rays get the win this afternoon in Boston.
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06-04-23 | A's v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
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06-03-23 | Yankees -122 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
#929 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Yankees -120 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Dodgers have Michael Grove listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Cole and a play against Grove so we are in good shape either way. Cole has been solid in 3 of his 4 road starts this season. Though he enters this one off allowing bigger earned runs in his last 2 starts, the most recent one saw him give up only 4 hits in 6 innings while striking out 9. So, the point is that he is providing some line value here off a start where he deserved better. Even off the B2B tougher outings, Cole has been very strong this season with a 6-0 record and a 2.93 ERA. Certainly he rates a huge edge over Grove. The Dodgers 26-year old righty is in just his 2nd season. So far, at the MLB level, he has a 5.96 ERA in 11 games (10 starts). Opponents are hitting .313 against him this season. This game starts at 4:15 local time in Los Angeles. Note that New York has won 17 of 23 day games this season and heading into this series the Yankees were 9-3 in interleague action this season and the Dodgers were 3-3 against AL teams this season. The Dodgers are only 10-9 in day games this season while NY has that 17-6 mark under the sun this season! Also, LA actually has seen their bullpen struggle this season. This is rare for the Dodgers but they are 27th in the majors for bullpen ERA while the Yankees are ranked #1 in the majors for bullpen ERA. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for New York to bounce back off that 8-4 loss yesterday. Yankees get the win this afternoon in LA. |
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06-02-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Reds | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
#951 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping with losses in 9 of last 14 games and the Reds actually have won 5 of 6 but the wins came on the road and Cincinnati is just 2-5 last 7 games at home. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring the Reds back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, he has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 9 starts. In his last 54 innings of work he has been excellent in striking out 53! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Reds are expected to start Brandon Williamson (5.02 ERA) but this is also a play against situation the way we see it as Cincinnati is 6-13 last 19 against the Brewers plus 13-24 against right-handed starters this season. As for Reds starter Williamson, he was 1-5 with 4.07 ERA at AAA level last season and 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA this season at the AAA level. He had some success in his MLB debut this season but has struggled in each of the two starts since and we look for the fade to continue for Williamson in this outing. 6 of last 7 Reds losses have been by at least a 2-run margin and 71% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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06-01-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
#912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 1:07 PM ET - Kevin Gausman had two rough starts for the Blue Jays this season in which he allowed 15 earned runs in 8 innings. However, in his other 9 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in 60 innings! Just one earned run allowed per start on average in the majority of his starts this season. As for the Brewers Freddy Peralta, he has been struggling in recent starts and, overall, is struggling on the road this season. Peralta is allowing opponents batting average of .300 on the road and has a 6.45 ERA in those road starts. The Brewers won yesterday's game 4 to 2 but entered yesterday's action having lost 17 of 27 games. The Blue Jays had won 14 of 23 home games this season prior to the Wednesday loss. 22 of 29 Toronto wins this season have been by a multiple run margin. 23 of 26 Brewers losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. The Blue Jays have had the better bullpen this season too plus Toronto is hitting .265 in home games this season ranking 7th in MLB while Brewers have a .359 slugging percentage in road games this season ranking 28th in MLB. Considering the information above, we think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Blue Jays. Lay it!
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05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 in a number of books in early market activity which is giving us extra value. We get a lower total here because of George Kirby's long-term numbers and the fact these are two solid bullpens but one must also look at what these clubs, particularly the Yankees, have been doing offensively of late. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. The Yankees are red hot at the plate and have scored exactly 10 runs in 3 straight games. Also, New York's road games have seen them score an average of 6.1 runs last 10 games and they have won 6 straight and 8 of last 9 when away from home. The Yankees are hot and Kirby enters this one off a very rough home start in which he allowed 4 homers! New York has really been slugging the ball so don't be surprised if Kirby struggles again. He also was hit harder at home last year just as has been the case this season. As for Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, his ERA and batting average against numbers have both been worse when on the road compared to at home. Schmidt enters this one with a 5.58 ERA on the season and opponents hitting .301 against him. The Mariners, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Wednesday night. |
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05-30-23 | Braves -235 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -235 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
#929 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves were 16-7 on the season when facing teams that did not have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Oakland certainly falls into that category as they entered this series 10-45 and with 35 of their 45 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's entered this series just 6-32 against right-handed starters and here they are expected to face a good one as Elder is likely to draw this start. Bryce Elder has a 2.01 ERA so far this season and it is no fluke as he has made 10 starts already on the season. He is undefeated this season while the expected Athletics starter, JP Sears, is winless on the season. He, like Elder, has also made 10 starts and he has a 4.70 ERA and is still seeking first win of the season. Of course it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Also, the Braves entered this series 10-4 against southpaw starters while Oakland entered this series 2-10 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against one of the best and this is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -125 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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05-29-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 10 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
#951/952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 10 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks and Karl Kauffmann for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Diamondbacks bullpen is ranked 19th out of 30 teams and the Rockies bullpen is ranked 25th so far this season. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. Nelson has struggled at home this season (6.31 ERA in 5 home starts) and also got rocked in his only start versus Colorado this season. The Rockies Kauffmann was hit at a .340 clip this season in his 8 starts in the minors here in 2023! Overall he is 14-24 with a 6.00 ERA in his minor league career. He is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA in what is now his rookie MLB season and one was at hitter friendly Coors Field but the other ugly outing was on the road. That said, this road venue is not an easy one either as Chase Field is hitter-friendly. 13 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs have reached double digits in runs and this one should too. Over is the call in this one Monday afternoon. |
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05-28-23 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
#905/906 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 12.5 Runs – New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Tylor Megill for the Mets and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Mets bullpen is ranked 17th out of 30 teams and the Rockies bullpen is ranked 23rd so far this season. The weather will be mild in Denver this afternoon and the ball should be carrying very well in the thin air as per usual. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. Megill has struggled on the road this season and really has not been the same pitcher since returning from injury in 2022. Remember he had a great April that year but then struggled the rest of the season. This year he has been particularly roughed up on the road and he already struggled against the Rockies this season and that start was at home. This will be a much tougher test with the rematch at Coors Field. Colorado's Gomber was hit at a .300 clip last season at home and opponents are hitting .305 against him in his home starts this season. Gomber has an ugly 7.98 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. New York has scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in their last 3 games including scoring 7 at Coors Field in yesterday's 10-7 loss. The Rockies have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 16 home games dating back to the end of April. There were 17 runs scored yesterday and nice hitting weather expected again in this one this afternoon. Look for another slugfest. Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon.
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05-27-23 | Nationals -104 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
#969 ASA PLAY ON 8* Washington Nationals -105 over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We are surprised at this line but feel it is likely set so favorably for the Nationals because of the Royals getting attention by the markets due to being at home and the Nationals not exactly a powerhouse. Trouble is, for Kansas City, this sure looks like another road win. The Nats have been hot and the Royals have been ice cold and Washington has been hitting better than KC. Washington has won 4 of 6 and also averaged scoring 6 runs a game in the last 7. The Royals have lost 10 of 13 games and are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors this season. While some may be looking for KC to bounce back off a high-scoring loss, the Royals are actually 1-8 this season when off a loss in which they surrendered 9 or more runs! Brady Singer is the expected starter for the Royals and he has been rocked in four of his last five home starts and has a 7.48 ERA on the season. Josiah Gray the expected starter for Washington and he has a 2.65 ERA on the season and he has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs in his last 9 starts this season. Overall, in looking at Washington in this one, we like them to have success vs Singer and a bad bullpen while Nationals starter Gray and a rather hot lineup continue the misery for the Royals. Take the Nationals on the road. |
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05-26-23 | Red Sox -142 v. Diamondbacks | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
#927 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boston Red Sox -145 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Other than the A's and their 8-game losing streak, the longest losing streak in the majors right now belongs to the Red Sox at 4 games and yet they are a sizable road favorite here. How can that be? Well for one thing the Red Sox hold the bullpen edge in this match-up. Additionally, Boston has a big starting pitching edge here. We are going action on pitchers here because certainly the likelihood of both pitchers getting scratched is nearly nil and this is as much a play against Brandon Pfaadt as it is a play on Chris Sale. Note that Pfaadt has had only 1 good outing in 4 starts this season. In the other 3 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 15 innings! As for Sale, he is back in top-notch form currently. The veteran lefty has not just been good, he has been absolutely dominant over his last 4 starts! Sale has allowed only 16 hits while striking out 32 in the 27.1 innings over his last 4 starts! He also issued a total of only 3 walks in those 4 starts. He is about as "in the zone" as a pitcher can get and we will not hesitate to back him and the Red Sox here against the Diamondbacks and the rookie Pfaadt. Boston had won 5 of 7 road games before this rare rough patch and they have not lost more than 4 straight games yet this entire season. Look for the Red Sox to again respond in this situation. We get line value because the Red Sox are on the road so the money line is held down to a reasonable price here. The value is on the Red Sox in this one and Boston is currently available at a price range of -145 to -150.
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05-25-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Now we get even more line value here as we fade a team on a 7 game losing streak. Oakland's JP Sears has some decent numbers but the Mariners Logan Gilbert has been even better and so now the price at -1.5 runs in the pick'em range means we have excellent value on the run line in this one. We have successfully gone to the "play against" well a handful of times already this season when it comes to the Athletics. That said, we have no hesitation in this spot again, and just like yesterday, will come right back and go against them again here as Oakland continues to be the worst team in baseball. The Mariners have struggled this season against teams with a winning record but have feasted against non-winning teams this season and have gone 18-7 against them! Oakland is 10-41 this season and simply consistently bad. They are 5-20 at home and 5-21 on the road this season. Yes, they consistently lose 80% of their games. Of course that is why they are a huge underdog here but we can get a reasonable price on the Mariners by playing Seattle at -1.5 on the run line in this one. The Mariners have won by 2 or more runs in 20 of their 25 wins this season. The A's have had 32 of 41 losses by at least a 2-run margin this season. This included, prior to Tuesday's 1-run loss, 14 of 15 losses by at least a 2-run margin of defeat for Oakland. The Athletics have a bullpen ERA of 6.57 which ranks dead last in the majors while Seattle's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. We like the Mariners to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Seattle as well. The expected starter for Seattle is Gilbert. The starter slated for the Athletics is Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 4.99 ERA and an 0-3 record so far this season. Sears has some good numbers versus Mariners but has only faced them once at Seattle and we expect the M's to be stronger against him here on their home field after seeing him at Oakland earlier this season. Gilbert was 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA last season and now this season he has been heating up with 29 strikeouts compared to just 16 hits allowed so far in the month of May. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like Monday's and Wednesday's routs that sandwiched the tight 1-run win Tuesday (17-3 combined score in the two blowouts). |
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05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - We have successfully gone to the "play against" well a handful of times already this season when it comes to the Athletics. That said, we have no hesitation in this spot and will come right back and go against them again here as Oakland continues to be the worst team in baseball. The Mariners have struggled this season against teams with a winning record but have feasted against non-winning teams this season and have gone 17-7 against them! Oakland is 10-40 this season and simply consistently bad. They are 5-20 at home and 5-20 on the road this season. Yes, they consistently lose 80% of their games. Of course that is why they are a huge underdog here but we can get a reasonable price on the Mariners by playing Seattle at -1.5 on the run line in this one. The Mariners have won by 2 or more runs in 19 of their 24 wins this season. The A's have had 31 of 40 losses by at least a 2-run margin this season. This includes, prior to last night's 1-run loss, 14 of last 15 losses by at least a 2-run margin of defeat for Oakland. The Athletics have a bullpen ERA of 6.53 which ranks dead last in the majors while Seattle's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. We like the Mariners to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Seattle as well. The expected starter for Seattle is Miller. The starter slated for the Athletics is Waldichuk. The Oakland left-hander has a 6.85 ERA and just one win so far this season. Miller has made only 4 starts this season but has been fantastic with a 1.42 ERA and a .128 BAA. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like Monday's (11-2 final) here.
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05-23-23 | Astros -130 v. Brewers | 0-6 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
#977 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -125 or -130 over Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Astros have won 8 straight games. A good measure of a team is how well they play against other winning teams. Houston is #1 in that category this season. The Astros are 14-8 for 64% winning rate when facing teams with a record above .500 on the season. Compare that to Milwaukee who has a losing record against winning teams. Also, Houston is 14-8 in road games this season as well. The Astros are 11-5 in interleague games this season and we like them here to make it 9 straight wins overall whether these slated starting pitchers go or not. We will mention them here as the projected match-up is JP France versus Colin Rea. Both are off tough starts but the difference is what had transpired prior to that. France had been rolling in both his minor league outings before his call-up plus each of his first two MLB appearances. Both of those were on the road and France should resume his strong road run after a tough home park debut in his most recent start. As for Rea, he has a 6.20 ERA in his last 5 starts and is 0-3 overall this season plus has a 5.00 ERA in his career. In terms of bullpens, the Brewers ERA ranks 21st in the majors while the Astros are ranked #2 in MLB for bullpen ERA. In terms of hitting, the Brewers .234 batting average at home is dead last in the NL. The Astros .255 batting average in road games is #5 in the AL. To top it all off, we get line value because the Astros are on the road so the money line is held down to a reasonable price here. The value is on the Astros in this one and Houston is currently available at a price range of -125 to -130. |
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05-22-23 | Rangers -133 v. Pirates | 4-6 | Loss | -133 | 26 h 54 m | Show | |
#919 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -135 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Pirates are off another loss Sunday and it was their 14th loss in the last 18 games. Pittsburgh's shocking 20-8 start to the season certainly seems like a distant memory now and reality is setting in for this Pirates team. The red hot Rangers, on the other hand, enter Monday having won 15 of 21 games. Texas also enters this series having won 7 of 9 road games. The Rangers enter this series as one of the top hitting teams in the league so far this season while the Pirates slugging percentage in home games ranks them in the lower third of the majors. We have the better team and hotter team here and we also do like the starting pitching edge here as well though that is not a key factor for us. The Pirates are expected to start Luis Ortiz in this one and he has been hit hard in his first two starts this season and is 0-4 with a 4.88 ERA in his career thus far. The Rangers are expected to start Dane Dunning and he is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA this season and has excelled after moving back into the starters role again. The Pirates are 8-13 this season against teams with a winning record. Texas is red hot right now plus 12 games over .500 on the season. This one is a mismatch and a case of hot versus cold plus we get line value because the Rangers are on the road so the money line is held down to a good price here. The value is on the Rangers in this one and Texas is currently available at a price range of -135 to -140. |
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05-21-23 | Twins v. Angels -143 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
#966 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -145 over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Twins are expected to start Pablo Lopez. He is off a road start in which he allowed 5 earned runs. Keep in mind, Lopez allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his last two April starts as well. The Angels are expected to start Shohei Ohtani. Opponents are hitting just .145 against him this season and he is 3-1 in his home starts. The Twins got the better of LA yesterday but the Angels had won 6 of 10 home games before that loss and Minnesota had lost 11 of 15 road games before that win yesterday. Los Angeles is hitting about 30 points higher on the season than the Twins. When Minnesota is on the road their numbers are even uglier as they have hit just .213 this season away from home which ranks them dead last in the AL. The Angels have a .458 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks 6th out of the 30 teams in MLB! The last 5 times the Twins have been off a road win they have lost their next game 4 times. The value is on the Angels here ... currently available at a price range of -145 to -150. |
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05-20-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
#914 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We won with Houston in this spot yesterday and will come right back with them again here. The Astros have won 5 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league. Not only that, the A's are an incredibly bad 1-18 in day games this season. Yes 18 of 19 afternoon games for the Athletics have seen them on the losing end. Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.56 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. The A's are 10-36 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well. The expected starter for Houston is Hunter Brown. The starter slated for the Athletics is JP Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 5.27 ERA and is winless in his 8 starts this season. Brown had limited action last season but was great and now he has been working as a starter this season and has been rock solid. He is now 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his career and has allowed an average of just 2 earned runs in his 8 starts this season. He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .215 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League. 20 of 25 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. 81% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 29 of their 36 defeats have been by 2+ runs. Oakland has lost 10 of 12 games and each of the A's last 12 losses have been by 2+ runs. Houston has won 8 of 9 games including 5 in a row. This game has home blowout written all over it again. We like the Astros on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like yesterday's here. |
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05-19-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league. Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.62 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.15 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. The A's are 10-35 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well. The expected starter for Houston is Brandon Bielak. The starter slated for the Athletics is Ken Waldichuk. The Oakland left-hander has a 7.02 ERA and opponents are hitting .310 against him in his 8 starts this season. Bielak has limited action both this season and last season but his lone home start this season was solid and 2 of his 3 appearances at home last season (all were long relief appearances) were solid. He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .214 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League. 19 of 24 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. 80% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 28 of their 35 defeats have been by 2+ runs. Oakland has lost 9 of 11 games and each of the A's last 11 losses have been by 2+ runs. Houston has won 7 of 8 games including 4 in a row. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Astros on the run line in this one. |
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05-17-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started. As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight. San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here. Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season! He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win. Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games. Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count. 26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Padres on the run line in this one. |
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05-16-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
#905/906 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 12 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Brandon Williamson for the Reds and Chase Anderson for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at WHIP, the Reds bullpen is ranked 19th out of 30 teams and the Rockies bullpen is ranked 24th so far this season. The weather will be mild in Denver this evening and the ball should be carrying very well in the thin air as per usual. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. Williamson is a rookie and he was 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA and .310 batting average against in the minors at the AAA level before being called up for this start. This start is highly unlikely to go well here. Pitchers are known for struggling in their first-ever starts here more often than not. This is not only Williamson's first ever start at Coors Field, it is first ever start in the majors! Not a good situation for him. As for Anderson, the veteran right-hander was claimed by the Rockies after being put on waivers by the Rays. Anderson has a 6.38 ERA or higher in each of his last three seasons. He most recently pitched at Coors Field as a member of the Phillies a few years ago and he allowed 6 earned runs in under 4 innings! Cincinnati has scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 5 games including scoring 8 at Coors Field in yesterday's series-opening 9-8 loss. The Rockies have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their 8 home games dating back to the end of April. Anderson has not even made a start yet this season and Willamson is making his MLB debut and there were 17 runs scored yesterday and nice hitting weather expected again in this one tonight. Look for another slugfest. Over is the call in this one Tuesday night. |
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05-15-23 | Brewers -108 v. Cardinals | 1-18 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
#953 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -110 or -115 over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Cardinals bullpen has been solid this season but the Brewers bullpen is even better and has the lowest team ERA in the NL for bullpens! The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Peralta has been great for the Brewers with 46 strikeouts in 40.2 innings this season. He is 4-2 this season and 34-19 in his career and, overall, has held opponents to a .198 batting average in his career. The Cardinals are just 10-18 this season when facing a team with a winning record. St Louis is also an ugly 6-13 in home games this season. The Brewers are heating up again and have been solid early this season and are 17-11 in games against right-handed starters. The Cardinals are 11-20 against righties and this match-up is a battle of right-handers. Again, even if there was a starting pitching change we like the road team here. St Louis is expected to start Jack Flaherty and, after he started the season decently, the wheels have really come off for him in his last 3 starts. Flaherty has given up 17 earned runs in 12 innings spanning his last 3 outings! Look for Milwaukee to make it 4 straight wins as they build on their 3-game winning streak and, though the Cardinals have won 3 straight and did win their most recent home game, that home victory followed losses in 12 of last 15 home games for St Louis. Off successful road trip including a sweep of the Red Sox, the Cardinals home struggles resume here as they face the top team in their division. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -110 to -115. |
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05-14-23 | Reds v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
#903/904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 8.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Braxton Garrett for the Marlins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as we look for today's match-up to pick up right where yesterday's game left off. That one was a 6-5 Reds win where 10 of the 11 runs were scored from the 5th inning onward and we look for the runs to keep piling up in this day game in Miami. The Marlins last 4 home games have all totaled at least 9 runs and those have averaged 13 runs! The Reds have won 5 of 7 games and scored an average of 6 runs in those 5 victories. About the expected starting pitchers, Weaver has a 7.36 ERA on the year and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his 4 starts this season. Garrett also has some ugly numbers as his May has gotten off to a horrific start. Not only does the Marlins lefty have a 13.97 ERA in his two starts this month, he has been getting hit at a .336 clip this season. The Reds bullpen has been middle of the pack so far this season (but overachieved in our opinion and an imminent regression is likely). The Marlins relievers ERA ranks 23rd out of 30 teams so far this season. Over is the call in this one early Sunday afternoon. |
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05-13-23 | Phillies -144 v. Rockies | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
#959 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET - We like the Phillies here over the Rockies with action on the pitchers as the Phillies have won 4 straight games overall and the Rockies have won just 4 of 12 home games since mid-April. Though going with action on the pitchers, we will mention that the expected starting pitchers are Ryan Feltner for Colorado and Ranger Suarez for Philadelphia. The Phillies Suarez looked strong in his rehab assignment in the minors and is now ready to go here as he has recovered from an elbow injury. He is 25-15 with a 3.12 ERA in his career and has looked strong the last two seasons since transitioning into a starters role. Suarez certainly rates an edge over Feltner. The Rockies right-hander is 6-12 with a 5.90 ERA in his career. Feltner is having issues with command of his pitches this season and it is resulting in too many walks plus he is often getting hit hard because of mistakes in location. The Phillies lineup has been strengthened with the recent return of Bryce Harper and he helped lead the way to the win last night with a big clutch hit. Harper came up huge with a 2-run double in the 8th inning. The longest winning streak in the majors right now belongs to the Phillies with 4 straight wins and it has gotten them back to .500 after a slow start. Rockies have gone 7-15 this season against teams at .500 or better. Rockies also are 9-16 this season in evening games. JT Realmuto likely to miss this game for the Phillies but back-up catcher Garrett Stubbs was solid last season and is 2 for 6 in his recent appearances, including last night's game. Stubbs actually caught Suarez in a number of his starts last year including some shutout appearances and also in a 7-3 win over the Rockies in Philly. We like the Phillies to get another win over the Rockies here as they make it 5 wins in a row and Colorado to 4-9 last 13 home games. We think we're getting some nice value with the road favorite available at a reasonable price in the -145 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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05-12-23 | Royals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday. 23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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05-11-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
#953/954 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 9 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Alex Cobb for San Francisco and Tommy Henry for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them near the bottom of the majors this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.70 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 5.63 ERA on the season. As for the starter here, Cobb has a low ERA and is off a good start in his first outing this month. However, last month in April he had 6 starts and was hit at a .287 clip for the month! Also, he particularly has struggled on the road this season with 18 hits allowed in 13.2 innings of work. So Cobb is very fortunate for his low ERA and we look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard just like they did in his last visit here last season when he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Also, the Giants should pound Henry. The Dbacks southpaw allowed 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings when he faced them in Arizona last season. This season Henry has struggled in his limited action so far and has a 5.17 ERA so far after compiling a 5.36 ERA in his rookie season last year. The Giants are off a game that totaled double digits in runs for the 3rd time in 6 games. 16 of Diamondbacks last 21 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as this is a hitters park and the bullpens have both struggled and both lineups are likely to enjoy big success tonight regardless of the starting pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Thursday night. |
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05-10-23 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
#903/904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:40 PM ET - The Brewers have lost 7 of 9 games and scored an average of only 2.3 runs per game in the 7 losses. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's 6-2 win here in Milwaukee, had scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their 6 most recent road games. The Brewers expected to start Wade Miley here and the lefty had a 3.37 ERA in 2021 and 3.16 ERA in 2022 and is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 2023 thus far. This should be a solid duel of southpaws in this one as the Dodgers are expected to start 9-time All-Star Clayton Kershaw this afternoon. The LA left-hander is off a tough start but that is a rarity for him and he is coming off fantastic April. He was 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA before allowing 4 earned runs in his first outing this month. Look for Kershaw to bounce back here. 3 of Kershaw's last 4 starts have been games that have totaled 7 or less runs and those games averaged 5.8 runs each. Look for another low-scoring battle in this Kershaw start as well. Let’s take the Under in this one.
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05-09-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
#953/954 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Luke Weaver for Cincinnati and Max Scherzer for the Mets. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams are off high-scoring losses and games at Great American Ballpark continue to trend toward big runs. Also, these two bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the middle of the pack this season. Certainly, neither pen has been special. The Reds last 15 home games have averaged totaling 12 runs apiece with many games reaching the double digit mark in runs. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Mets are ready for a breakout game at the plate after a tough little stretch at the plate followed by scoring 6 runs in the loss to the Rockies Sunday. New York is expected to have Scherzer on the mound and he has a shoulder issue he continues to deal with. Additionally, his first start back after the suspension did not go well. Perhaps the suspension for use of a foreign substance on his glove is in his mind a little bit. That plus the shoulder issue plus the fact he is 38 now is all starting to catch up with him. As for Reds starter Weaver, he has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his 3 starts this season. At the rate he is going, Weaver is on the way to a season with an ERA north of 6.50 for the 3rd time in 4 years! As for the Mets Scherzer, including post-season, he has allowed 25 earned runs in his last 7 starts dating back to October of last year. He just has not been the same pitcher. The Reds are scoring an average of 5 runs per game when at home this season but they also are giving up 5.3 runs per game on the year and the Mets can score well here against Weaver and a suspect bullpen. Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening. |
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05-08-23 | Rockies +1.5 v. Pirates | 0-2 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
#901 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and we are going to fade them here. We get line value with a reasonable price on the +1.5 runs on the run line as the Pirates have Mitch Keller on the mound. This has impacted the pricing of this game and certainly Keller is a solid starting pitcher. However, the key here is that the Rockies also have a strong starting pitcher on the mound with Kyle Freeland expected to get the ball here. Additionally, Colorado has won back to back games and they exploded at the plate in yesterday's win. Keller is 2-0 in home starts this season but he entered this season 3-17 in home starts in his career! As for Freeland, because he pitches his home starts in hitter-friendly Coors Field, he tends to have inflated ERA numbers overall. His road ERA numbers in recent seasons have been strong and this season he is pitching consistently well both home and away. We are aware of his minor neck issue but he still was just fine versus the Brewers in most recent start. He has been solid in 6 of his 7 starts this season and, ironically, the lone bad one was at home against these Pirates. Big difference between facing them on the road rather than at home and we expect he will get revenge in this start. The Rockies have won 6 of 7 games and the only loss was by a single run! Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight games and also, only 5 of their last 15 home games have been wins by a margin of at least 2 runs. Don't be surprised if the road team gets the upset over the home team that is mired in a slump but, if the Rockies do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-07-23 | Yankees -115 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -115 over Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here because the Rays have Javy Guerra listed as a starter but he is just an opener and Josh Fleming is expected to get the bulk of the work. That being said, perhaps Tampa Bay changes their mind and uses Fleming as a starter and Guerra comes in later. That is why we select action here and we look for the Yankees to pick up another win after rallying for the 3-2 win yesterday. The Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. He has been absolutely dominant this season with a 5-0 record and a 1.35 ERA. This will be his first start against the Rays this season but last year he had a 1.07 ERA in his 4 starts against Tampa Bay. Cole allowed just 13 hits in 25 innings while striking out 35 in those 4 outings versus Tampa. Look for more dominance today and the key here is that whoever the Yankees have on the mound is likely to get plenty of run support today too. Guerra has struggled with command of his pitches and is walking too many batter again this season just like last season. Fleming suffered a foot contusion in most recent outing. He is expected to be ready here but he struggled with too many walks in 2 of his last 4 starts. He has been a little "off" at times this season and remember he had a 6.43 ERA last season and a 5.09 ERA the year before that. We are not sold on Fleming and we expect the Yankees to build momentum here after the key win yesterday. Tampa Bay has been great this season but there are not many times you are going to be able to bet the Yankees with Cole on the mound (particularly when he is rolling like this!) at a -120 price. The point is that we get line value here because of the Rays ultra strong start to this season. Keep in mind, New York has won 11 of 15 day games this season and the Rays, though certainly still hot overall, have lost 3 of last 7 games at home. Yankees get the win this afternoon. |
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05-06-23 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
#911/912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 7.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. We get a lower total here because the Yankees are still without Aaron Judge in the lineup and the fact the Yankees have not been great offensively. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. The Rays won yesterday's game 5-4 and are 27-6 on the season and 18-2 at home. Tampa Bay has scored more runs than any team in the majors and is averaging 6.5 runs per game thus far. Of course this is a big reason they are the #1 team in the majors so far this season. The Yankees have scored 4 runs in each of last 3 games and they could surprise here. The scheduled starters are Drew Rasmussen for the Rays and Domingo German for the Yankees. Note that Rasmussen has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts. In his most recent start he was allowing a lot of hard contact. Even many of the outs were very hard hit balls. A couple of double plays and working out of jams prevented his day from being even worse. Rasmussen has now had just 1 good start the last 4 and has allowed 13 earned runs in 14 innings in the other 3 starts. As for Yankees starter German, he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts. The New York right-hander is off a strong start but, prior to this, he had allowed 10 earned runs in 12 innings in his 2 prior starts and allowed 5 homers in those two starts. German is still getting strikeouts but when he is giving up contact it has included many balls getting crushed. Historically he has certainly been less than dominant in his starts at Tropicana Field too. Considering the above factors, this total is too low. Yes, these are two solid bullpens. However, 21 of the Rays last 30 games (70%!) have totaled at least 8 runs. Tampa Bay is just so powerful at home and Yankees should be good for at least 4 runs again today and, of course, the Rays are a big money line favorite for a reason! Over is the call in this one Saturday afternoon. |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies -144 | 5-3 | Loss | -144 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-145) over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We like the Phillies here over the Red Sox with action on the pitchers as the home field edge and situational edge are keys. However, we will mention that the expected starting pitchers are Chris Sale for the Red Sox and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia. Taking a look at Wheeler, he struggled in his first start this season as well as one other start but those were both road starts. Now he is coming off a stellar outing on the road and also he has dominated again at home all season long which comes as no surprise. That's because Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of minimal hits allowed per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and he has twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed (22-11) in his 3 home starts this season. The Red Sox were 11 games under .500 in road games last season and have a losing record in road games thus far this season! Phillies, including post-season, are on a hot run in home games including 28-12 last 40. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Sale (8.36 ERA and opponents batting averaged .339 in his road starts this season), the defending NL Champs coming home off a miserable road trip...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying a reasonable price in the -145 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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05-04-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. Royals | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
#909 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a strong play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have one of the top bullpens in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.99 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.30 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 2-13 in home games this season and just got one of those rare wins yesterday. Now, Royals off a win and are 0-5 last 5 times they were off a win. In fact, KC has had only one winning streak - and only a 2 game streak at that! - this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 23 losses this season have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Grayson Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA this season and has not allowed any runs in 10 innings over his past two starts! The Orioles hurler has 34 strikeouts in his 23 innings this season. The Royals counter with Jordan Lyles and he is 0-5 with a 6.11 ERA. In his last two appearances at home, Lyles has allowed a total of 8 earned runs plus 2 homers in each start. Orioles enter this one with wins in 12 of 15 games. Of 10 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 9 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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05-03-23 | Pirates v. Rays UNDER 7 | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
#975/976 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 7 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Rays took game 1 of this 3-game series last night by a final score of 4-1 with the two teams combining for only 11 hits. We see a similar result this evening. Both teams have high level starters taking the mound with the Pirates Mitch Keller and the Rays Shane Mcclanahan. Keller has been red hot as he allowed an average of 2 earned runs per start in 5 starts and 31 innings pitched last month. Keller has been missing plenty of bats with 40 strikeouts in 35.2 innings pitched this season. Tampa Bay will counter with Shane Mcclanahan. The Rays ace left-hander has been sharp as of late (and really all season!) as he has allowed just 8 earned runs in his 6 starts this season and struck out 19 in his last two home starts in 11 innings combined. McClanahan is 5-0 this season and Keller is 3-0 this season. You have two guys who are getting a lot of strikeouts plus pitching with a high level of confidence right now. You also have a match-up featuring two very strong bullpens. The Pirates bullpen ERA ranks them 2nd in National League and the Rays bullpen ERA ranks them 3rd in the majors! Just like last night, this game sets up as another low scoring affair. Let’s take the Under in this one. |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 11-7 | Win | 110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season! Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP! The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season. The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago. Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season. This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA! In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games. Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win. What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season. Every loss leads to a losing streak. KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak. Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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05-01-23 | Giants v. Astros -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
#964 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over San Francisco Giants, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if this starting pitching match-up changes we still like the Astros here. They have home field edge and a huge bullpen edge. The Giants bullpen ERA is the worst in the National League so far with a 6.15 ERA on the young season. The Astros, on the other hand, are very near the best mark in the majors (2.86 ERA) as Houston's bullpen has compiled a 2.97 ERA so far this season. Now, as far as the expected starters here, Ross Stripling has worked out of the bullpen and as a starter this season and has struggled in both roles! Stripling is winless with a 6.97 ERA thus far. As for the Astros Luis Garcia, he had a tough start to the season but has since bounced back huge. He has not allowed a single earned run in his last two starts plus given up just 5 hits in 13 innings over those two outings! Garcia has struck out 23 in 18 innings over his last 3 starts! The Giants are 4-9 on the road this season and 5-10 this season against teams with a winning record. Houston is 6-3 in inter-league match-ups this season. Astros have won 7 of last 10 games while San Francisco is coming off 3 straight losses including the last 2 in Mexico City. The trip from Mexico City to Houston is not a long one but it is still a unique experience SF just had with the road trip scheduled there and this is a tough scheduling spot for them as a result. Houston was already at home and has momentum after a win over the Phillies Sunday! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Astros. Lay it! |
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04-30-23 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
#922 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 3-5 with a 5.55 ERA! Kansas City had lost 9 straight games at Target Field before notching yesterday's win on a wild pitch. Minnesota had won 5 of 6 games before yesterday's loss. The Royals have won B2B games only once this entire season and their struggles are likely to quickly resume here. Minnesota is 7-2 in divisional games this season and here they are hosting a Royals team that got a rare win over them yesterday. The only team in all of MLB with a record that is worse than KC this season is Oakland. As for the starters here, Sonny Gray of the Twins is 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He is holding opponents to a .192 BAA. The Royals Brady Singer has made 5 starts this season. The first one was good and the most recent one was good. However, in between those he allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 straight starts! He has yet to produce B2B quality starts. 18 of 21 Royals losses have been by at least 2 runs. 13 of 16 Twins victories have been by at least 2 runs. You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs given those numbers. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any price with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-29-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
#959/960 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 12.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The starting pitcher for Arizona has struggled in his only start this season and though his counterpart has impressive numbers in his limited action, this one is set up perfect for him to get hammered. Expected starters are Tommy Henry for the Diamondbacks and Noah Davis for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. The Diamondbacks bullpen and the Rockies bullpen are each in the lower third of the majors for bullpen ERA so far this season. The weather will be mild in Denver this evening and the ball should be carrying very well in the thin air as per usual. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. Noah Davis has only appeared in 3 MLB games, all for the Rockies, but never at Coors Field. This start is highly unlikely to go well here. Rookie pitchers are known for struggling in their first-ever starts here. Also, Davis had some ugly numbers in the minors once he got above the single-A level. We think this is where the wheels come off for him now after having decent (but not great) outings in his first two appearances this season. His only appearance last season was in October and only lasted 1 inning and was not good. Now his first ever start at Coors Field. As for Henry, the Diamondbacks left-hander has a 5.44 ERA in his 10 career starts. One of those was at Coors Field last season and he managed to limit the damage but was fortunate it was not worse in that start in which he allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings. Arizona has scored 7.5 runs per game in their last 6 games at Coors Field and hammered out a 9-1 win yesterday. Before being held to 1 run yesterday, the Rockies averaged 5 runs per game in their 9 home games dating back to early this month. 6 of those 9 games totaled at least 13 runs and our computer math model has indicators that show likelihood of this one getting to at least 13 runs as well! Over is the call in this one Saturday night. |
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04-28-23 | Angels v. Brewers -128 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
#926 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -130 or -135 over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Angels bullpen has been solid this season but the Brewers bullpen is even better and has the lowest team ERA in the NL for bullpens! The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Tyler Anderson and Wade Miley. Note that Anderson had a good first start this season but has since allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Miley has been great for the Brewers with 17 strikeouts against just 4 walks this season. He is a perfect 2-0 at home this season and, overall, has a 1.96 ERA in his 4 starts. The Angels are just 3-7 this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Brewers have been solid early this season and are 15-7 in games on grass. The Angels are 3-5 against lefties and this match-up is a battle of southpaws. Again, even if there was a starting pitching change we like the home team here. Los Angeles has allowed 7 or more runs in 4 of 8 games the past 10 days and they have lost 5 of 7 road games dating back to mid-April. The Brewers have won 16 of 24 games since a season-opening loss and in their last 10 games they had only one ugly loss and have allowed just 3.3 runs per game the other 9 games. Home blowout for the Brewers with edges including home field, starting pitcher, and bullpen. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a very fair price range of -130 to -135. |
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04-27-23 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 which is giving us extra value. The weather will be decent by Detroit standards for April. We get a lower total here because of Kyle Gibson's numbers and the fact the Tigers are not great offensively. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. Detroit actually hits better at home than they do on the road. Also, the Orioles have been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season on the road. The Tigers also just faced Gibson and he shut them down in Baltimore. However, now they will get a quick second look at him and he has struggled on the road in recent seasons. This has been a marked dichotomy for Gibson and it has already continued for him early this season in that he is better at home than on the road. Also, the last few times he has pitched at Comerica Park in Detroit, they have been complete disasters as Gibson has been hit very hard. As for Tigers starter Joey Wentz, he just faced the Orioles and it did not end well. Now Baltimore's lineup gets to quickly see him again and Wentz is likely to get hit very hard in the rematch as well. The Tigers have played 8 home games this season and, other than one outlier which was a 1-0 win, the 7 other home games averaged totaling 10 runs per game! The Orioles also have a rare outlier with a 1-0 shutout win on the road but have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their other 10 road games this season. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening. |
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04-26-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
#982 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - The Royals snuck out a 5-4 win over Arizona yesterday but had lost 9 of 10 games before the rare win. In those 9 losses Kansas City has scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game! KC has lost 75% of its games this season and 15 of 18 Kansas City defeats have come by at least a 2 run margin this season. We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals also have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 2-5 with a 6.29 ERA! Arizona's bullpen has not been great this season but they still rate a few ticks above the Royals for sure plus the Diamondbacks are the much better overall team and lineup and they are at home for this one. Arizona's relievers actually have a combined 8-3 record and hitters are just hitting .235 against them even though their ERA is a little high thus far this season. Diamondbacks pen the much better pen as you can see. Even with last night's rare win, KC has lost 9 of 11 games and their struggles are likely to continue here. Arizona was 7-4 last 11 at home this season before the loss yesterday. Arizona's last 11 wins have had 9 come by a margin of 2 or more runs and the Royals are 3-10 in day games this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! As for those pichers, Ryan Yarbrough is struggling with command and has hit 6 batters in 4 innings in his last two outings and now makes a start as a bit of an opener here. He may not last very long the way he has been throwing of late! As for the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen has been fantastic and after some choppiness in his first two starts, he has since dominated. Gallen has not allowed an earned run and averaged 7 innings per start in his last 3 starts and has 29 strikeouts against 1 walk and only 7 hits in those 3 outings! Complete dominance! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay too big a price with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-25-23 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 101 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
#966 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox have lost 5 straight games. In those 5 losses Chicago has scored an average of only 3 runs per game! 12 of 16 Chicago defeats were by at least a 2 run margin this season. We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the White Sox also have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 2-8 with a 6.10 ERA! Chicago has lost 10 of 12 games and their struggles are likely to continue here. Toronto is 5-2 at home this season and Jose Berrios is 41-19 in home starts since his sophomore season after a tough rookie campaign back in 2016. This home/road dichotomy is no fluke as he is just 29-31 on the road during this time as well. Berrios was rock solid in his only home start this season and more of the same expected in this one. Mike Clevinger is off a tough start and that was at home. Most recent road start also featured struggles for him. Toronto's last 6 wins all have been by 2 or more runs and the White Sox are 4-10 on the road this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any price with the Blue Jays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!
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04-24-23 | A's v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Ken Waldichuk for the Athletics. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. The Angels bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack - not awful but not great either. The Athletics bullpen however is much worse. Really some of Oakland's bullpen numbers are hard to believe as they are so off the norm (K:BB ratio for example). Oakland ranks dead last for bullpens so far this season including a 6.99 ERA. The Angels are 5-3 L8 home games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games plus they took 2 of 3 at Oakland earlier this season and averaged 6.7 runs in the 3 games. We'll see plenty of runs here! Oakland has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 road games but their problem is they can stop no one! The A's have allowed 8 runs per game this season which is unreal considering we are 22 games into the season. The A's pitching, including their beleaguered bullpen, has been truly dreadful. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in all 3 of his starts this season and has allowed 12 earned runs in his three outings even though those starts have totaled only about 12 innings combined. The A's Waldichuk has allowed 11 earned runs in about 9 innings in his two road starts and the Angels have some hitters who have enjoyed success against him. Over is the call in this one Monday night. |
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04-23-23 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
#952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 12:05 PM ET - Raining in Philly this morning but it is supposed to move out of the area well before this very early game gets underway so we should be just fine in terms of getting this one in. We like the Phillies here over the Rockies with action on the pitchers as the home field edge and better overall team gets it done against traditionally road-adverse Colorado. However, we will mention that the expected starting pitchers are Jose Urena for the Rockies and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia. Taking a look at Wheeler, he struggled in his first start this season as well as his most recent start but those were both road starts. In between these two starts he was at home and he was solid which comes as no surprise. That's because Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of minimal hits allowed per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a Rockies lineup here that is known for road struggles. The Rockies were 27-54 in road games last season and 26-54 in road games the prior season! On the year this season and last season, 75.5% of the Rockies losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a hot run in home games including 25-11 last 36. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Urena (0-3, 9.82 ERA in 2023), the defending NL Champs over one of the worst road teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and laying a reasonable price in the -145 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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04-22-23 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to bounce back with big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Andrew Heaney to start this one. Heaney had a rough first start this season but is now building momentum with back to back solid outings and he is supported by a very strong bullpen. As for Oakland, Shintaro Fujinami will be the likely starter for the A's here. He is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA this season and the Athletics bullpen has a 6.54 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Rangers bullpen has a 2.70 ERA and ranks a solid 3rd in the majors! We expect the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday's tight loss and crush the ball at home in this one. Oakland, before yesterday's upset win, had lost 7 straight and 13 of 14 games! 12 of the Athletics 16 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers had won 8 of 10 before yesterday's loss and Oakland has been horrid for much of this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers dozen wins this season have had 11 of the 12 by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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04-21-23 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as Royals going with a bullpen game in this one. The Kansas City bullpen is dead last in MLB with the highest ERA this season so Los Angeles should have a big advantage on the mound here no matter who is pitching! The Angels are expected to send Shohei Ohtani to start this one. Ohtani is undefeated in his first 4 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018. Ohtani is sporting a 30-14 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.33 ERA. The Angels right-hander has been practically unhittable this season with just 6 hits allowed in 21 innings! Taylor Clarke will be the likely starter for the Royals here but he is really just an opener. He has a 6.75 ERA and the Royals bullpen has a 6.89 team ERA! The Angels bullpen has a 3.27 ERA and ranks a solid 7th in the majors! Clarke will likely work only an inning or two for KC and then Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get the bulk of the work here out of the bullpen. He has a 9.00 ERA this season and we expect the Angels to crush the ball at home in this one. Kansas City has lost 6 straight and 9 of last 10 games! 14 of the Royals 15 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Angels have not been great this season but KC has been horrid and all the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here. Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Angels. Lay it! |
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04-20-23 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
#904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - The Rockies have lost 8 straight games and are 2-7 away from home this season. Annually Colorado tends to be so bad on the road. This long-term trend has resumed this season and, entering this contest, the Rockies have lost 7 straight road games! Colorado has averaged only 2 runs scored per game in last 6 road games. Colorado has even been struggling at home as, overall, the Rockies have averaged only 3 runs scored per game in last 8 games - all losses - and 5 of those were home games! The Phillies have now won 4 of 6 games and have averaged 8.5 runs scored per victory in those 4 wins. 7 of Philadelphia's 8 wins have been by at least a 3-run margin this season. We like the run line for all the reasons above and are not overly concerned with the starting pitching match-up here. We'll take action on the pitchers with this run line play but we will mention that Ryan Feltner is 4-12 with a 6.46 ERA in his career and struggling again this season. The Phillies Matt Strahm, on the other hand, has a respectable 3.74 ERA in his career and has been particularly strong as a starter this season after enjoying some prior successful runs out of the bullpen for the Red Sox and Padres in past seasons. The Phillies have been putting up some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Colorado’s offense is playing, the Phillies may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take Philadelphia on the run line tonight. |
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04-19-23 | Rangers +101 v. Royals | 12-3 | Win | 101 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
#963 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers +100 over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - We are surprised at this line but feel it is likely set so favorably for the Rangers because of the Royals getting attention by the markets due to the traditional sweep avoidance. Trouble is, for Kansas City, this sure looks like a sweep all the way. The Rangers have been red hot and the Royals have been ice cold and Texas has the much better bullpen and has been hitting better than KC. The Royals have one of the highest bullpen ERA marks in the league and that continued to be a problem yesterday as they were blasted 12 to 2 by Texas. The Rangers have won 7 of 9 and the Royals have lost 14 of 18 games this season. While some may be looking for KC to avoid the sweep here and bounce back off an ugly loss, the Royals are actually 0-3 this season when off a loss in which they surrendered 9 or more runs! Brady Singer expected starter for Royals and he has been rocked in each of his last two starts and has a 7.88 ERA on the season. Martin Perez the expected starter for Texas and he has a 2.87 ERA on the season and he had a 2.89 ERA for the Rangers last season. Overall, in looking at Texas in this one, we like them to have success vs Singer and a bad bullpen while Rangers starter Perez and a strong bullpen continue the red hot run. Take the Rangers on the road. |
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04-18-23 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the power-hitting of these two clubs coupled with the westerly wind direction and a cool (but not cold) evening at Yankee Stadium is likely to lead to a slugfest here! Look for the Angels to build off yesterday's win at Fenway Park but they also used up a ton of bullpen in that game. A long rain delay in that early game at Boston after Ohtani pitched the first two innings meant that Angels had to use a lot of bullpen for the final 7 innings of that game. That one was a 5-4 LA win and we look for even more runs to be piling up in this early evening game in the Bronx Tuesday. The Yankees bullpen has been solid this season but the Angels are 5-4 L9 road games and have scored an average of 7 runs in the 5 wins and allowed an average of 7 runs in the 4 losses. We'll see plenty of runs here! The Yankees will take advantage of a mediocre LA bullpen that got a lot of work yesterday. New York has averaged scoring 5 runs per game this season and had averaged scoring 6 runs in their first 9 victories this season before a 2-0 pitchers duel win with Cole on the mound Sunday. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in both his starts this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled only about 8 innings combined. The Yankees Schmidt also has struggled in all 3 starts this season and he has an 8.44 ERA and has been hit at a .340 clip so far this season! Schmidt has allowed 3 homers in less than 11 innings of work this season. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening. |
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04-17-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. Royals | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - Texas should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Jacob deGrom to start this one. He had a tough first start despite 7 strikeouts and no walks but has settled in nicely in his last two starts as deGrom has 27 strikeouts against just 2 walks in his 16 and 2/3 innings this season. In his two April starts deGrom has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 13 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio is fantastic this season. Jordan Lyles will be the likely starter for the Royals here and his struggles have continued with a rough start to this season after another unimpressive season last year. He is now 66-92 in his career with a 5.10 ERA! Lyles is in trouble here against a solid Rangers team and facing them as a member of a Royals team that is again looking like one of the worst teams in the league. He have given up 9 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and that included facing the Rangers in his most recent start. The most recent start for deGrom was against these Royals as well and he dominated in that one. That game Tuesday, in fact, featured these two starters and took 10 innings for Texas to emerge victorious but the Rangers blew a late 2-run lead in that game. The Royals lost again to the Braves yesterday and are now 1-9 in home games and 2-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rangers are 7-2 this season against teams with a losing record and Texas has been involved in only one 1-run game out of 15 games this season. The Royals have only had one 1-run loss in their 12 defeats this season. That being said, you can see why we are expecting a road rout decided by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a very fair price - opened up in the -120 range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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04-16-23 | Guardians -1.5 v. Nationals | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
#923 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Cleveland should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Shane Bieber to start this one. Bieber is undefeated in his first 3 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018. Even including that rookie year, Bieber is sporting a 55-26 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.88 ERA. Patrick Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and his struggles have continued with a very rough start to this season after another ugly year last season. He is now 18-44 since the start of the 2020 season. Just like 2022, unfortunately for Corbin, he has picked up right where he left off when he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in! Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits in 2022! He is in trouble here against a solid Guardians team and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league. Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season and he has been getting rocked this season as well. Also, Washington is 1-7 in day games and 1-7 against right-handed starters and 1-7 in inter-league action - all of those stats are year to date so far this season. The Guardians are 4-2 in day games this season and we look for them to complete the sweep here as they are already a superb 7-2 in road games this season. Looking for a road rout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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04-15-23 | Mets v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – New York Mets @ Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Shintaro Fujinami for Oakland and Carlos Carrasco for the Mets. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as we look for today's match-up to pick up right where yesterday's game left off. That one was a 17-6 Mets win and we look for the runs to keep piling up in this day game in Oakland. The Mets have scored an average of 7 runs in their 8 wins this season. In New York's 5 most recent losses, they have allowed an average of 7.4 runs per game. That is why, win or lose, Mets find themselves in a high-scoring game Saturday the way we see it. Oakland opened the season with a 2-1 win. Since then, 10 of their 13 games have totaled double digits in runs. Those 13 games have averaged 13 runs per game! We only need 10 to be a winner here and 9 is a push. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Fujinami has more walks than strikeouts this season and has allowed 13 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled less than 7 innings combined. Carrasco also has more walks than strikeouts and he has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his two starts though he failed to complete 5 innings in either start. Carrasco has allowed 3 homers in less than 9 innings of work this season. The Mets bullpen has been middle of the pack so far this season while the Athletics relievers ERA ranks 29th out of 30 teams so far this season. Over is the call in this one Saturday afternoon.
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04-14-23 | Phillies -141 v. Reds | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
#901 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Phillies have struggled early this season but we like the way this sets up for them. The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Connor Overton and Taijuan Walker. Note that these pitchers just squared off and the Reds won that game but Walker had the better start though he had command issues. Both starters have struggled a bit early this season but Walker has allowed only 7 hits in 9 innings while Overton has allowed twice as many hits (14) in one less inning of work (8). Another key we like here is Overton has particularly struggled against lefties. The Phillies likely to have at least 4 left-handed bats in the lineup tonight. Then when you look at who their right-handed hitters are, the group includes some of their best, biggest, and most dangerous sticks. Guys like Bohm and Turner and Castellanos and Realmuto. Also another right-handed bat, Sosa has hit the Reds pitching very well this season. We feel that Overton will again struggle in this one while Walker's stuff will again prove tough to hit. In his 3rd start of the season Walker also should have better command in this one too. The Phillies lost to Lodolo and the Reds yesterday but entered that game having won 8 of last 10 games against Cincinnati. Also, Lodolo has been at the opposite end of the spectrum in comparison to how Overton is throwing. The Reds were 50-92 last season against NL opponents and they remain one of the worst teams in the league. Also, Cincinnati is just 2-6 this season against right-handed starters. The Reds have the slightly better record than the Phillies early this season but there is a reason this game is priced this way and it fact it opened up at an even higher price so we are happy to grab the extra value after the early market movement. Road rout for the Phillies with the edge in lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen. The value is on the Phillies here ... even at a -145 price.
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04-13-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
#954 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - Take action here as we grab the much better team at home and ready for a home blowout win regardless of the starters. The Pirates are expected to start Vince Velasquez. He struggled to find the plate in spring training and he has more walks than strikeouts so far this season. This will be his 3rd start of the young season and he rolled his left ankle so he is not quite 100% and this will not help him today either. That said, Cardinals bats should roll here and their expected starter is Jared Montgomery. While Velasquez has a 9.82 ERA so far this season, Montgomery has a 2.25 ERA in his first two starts and is coming off a dominating effort over the Brewers in his most recent start. He is 16-6 in night starts since the start of the 2021 season and Pittsburgh's 5 losses this season have all been by at least 2 runs and 4 of the 5 by at least 4 runs. In fact, the average margin of defeat in Pittsburgh losses has been 5 runs. The Pirates were shutout yesterday and have been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of last 4 games. The Cardinals have played a tough schedule but are off B2B wins and are starting to turn the corner after facing tough competition to begin their season. All 5 Cardinals wins this season have been by at least a 3 run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay a small price in the -120 range with the Cardinals. Lay it! |
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04-12-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned Friday in the most recent start for Zach Wheeler, he had struggled in his first start this season but it was on the road. Sure enough, Wheeler bounced back at home Friday with a respectable start and he truly dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a mediocre (at best) Marlins lineup here. The Marlins got the 8-4 win over the Phillies yesterday but were 35-46 in road games last season. This season all 7 of the Marlins losses have been by at least 2 runs and actually Miami's average margin of defeat is 6 runs per loss which shows how bad their bullpen can fall apart in games. In this case that bullpen could be called upon early too because Edward Cabrera just can not find the plate this season. Sometimes starters will have a one-off game where they just can not throw strikes but something is not right with Cabrera. He walked 6 batters in his first start and 7 batters in his second start and this was in an average of only 3 and 1/3 innings per start! Phillies, including post-season, are on a 56-38 run in home games including 23-9 last 32. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Cabrera, the defending NL Champs over one of the weaker teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here as the Phillies are already a perfect 2-0 this season when at home off a loss and they won those two games by a combined score of 20 to 5. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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04-11-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Tigers have lost 7 of 9 games this season. In those 7 losses Detroit has scored an average of only 2 runs per game! All 7 defeats were by at least a 3 run margin. Detroit just does not have the lineup to keep up with the high-powered Jays here. That is why we like this run line play with action on the pitchers but we will mention that the projected pitching match-up of Alek Manoah versus Matt Manning certainly does give the Blue Jays a starting pitching edge here. The Tigers have given up 7 runs per game so they have some bullpen issues too as you can see with that number. The big problem here for Detroit is an inability to score enough to keep up with the high-powered Jays. Toronto has won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during that stretch and now this is their home opener. They should tee off on Manning as he was 1-4 with 6.63 ERA on the road in 2021 and had a 4.94 ERA in his 2022 road starts. This is his first road start this season while Manoah will be happy to be at home where he is 12-4 with a 2.39 ERA in his first two seasons. He also is coming off a start on the road last week in which he allowed 0 runs and just 1 hit in 7 innings. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team in their home opener and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Blue Jays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
#907/908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 11.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their most recent starts. Expected starters are Steven Matz for Cardinals and German Marquez for Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have lost 6 of 8 and allowed 7.6 runs per game in the 6 losses and are off a high-scoring 7-6 win over the Nationals yesterday. As for the Cardinals they have lost 6 of 9 games this season and have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in the 6 defeats. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Marquez got destroyed in his home starts last season and of course Matz is unlikely to enjoy this start at pitcher-friendly Coors Field. In fact, Matz has been roughed up by the Rockies in his career and this is particularly true in his starts at Coors Field where he has been hammered in his visits here in recent years. Rockies offense slow out of the gate this season but Sunday it was apparent they garnered some momentum from Saturday's 9th inning rally that had fallen just short on the scoreboard. The Cardinals are a high quality team that has struggled recently on offense because of facing tough pitchers at Milwaukee and versus Atlanta. Facing pitching like that and then facing the Rockies at Coors Field is truly a night and day difference! St Louis will get their offense going here. Over is the call in this one Monday evening. |
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04-09-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
#957/958 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 11.5 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their opening starts. Expected starters are Chad Kuhl for Nationals and Ryan Feltner for Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have lost 6 of 7 and allowed 7.6 runs per game in the 6 losses and the Nationals have had two low-scoring games this season but have allowed 7 runs per game in the other 7 games. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Kuhl allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his season opener and Feltner had control issues and that helped lead the way to 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The total on this game is relatively low considering the last two games in this series have averaged 14 runs. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here. Rockies offense slow out of the gate this season but can garner momentum from yesterday's 9th inning rally. The Nationals offensive production has led the way to an average of 8.5 runs per game last two games. Over is the call this afternoon. |
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04-08-23 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Tampa Bay won 9-5 yesterday. The Rays are now 7-0 on the season while the A's dropped to 2-5 on the season. Only 1 of Oakland's 5 losses has come by a one-run margin and all 7 of Tampa Bay's wins have been by a multi-goal margin. That said, the odds favor any Tampa Bay win coming by a multi-run margin. So how about the likelihood of a TB win? Well, it certainly is not a mistake that they are favored by nearly a -300 price on the money line in this one. This Rays team has been dominating. Tampa Bay is scoring about 7 and 1/2 runs per game and allowing only 2 and 1/2 runs per game. The A's, on the other hand, are allowing 7 runs per game and scoring 4 runs per game. Our computer math model is showing a high probability of multi-run win for the hosts here. Yesterday the Rays hit 5 homers and also flashed stellar defense in the field. All facets of the game are going well for the Rays right now. TB should pound Shintaro Fujinami. He was rocked in his MLB debut for the A's and gave up 8 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings and that was at home. Now he is on the road and facing the hottest team in MLB. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the Rays here and we will mention that we like this play no matter who the starting pitchers are but Springs was absolutely dominant in his first start this season. Springs went 6 scoreless and hitless innings and allowed just 1 walk and struck out 12 batters. He is 14-6 the past two seasons and had a dominant 2.46 ERA last season. This match-up has dominance written all over it again and we think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-07-23 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 3:05 PM ET - Extra rest is not exactly welcome this early in the season. Lineups are trying to get their timing going at the plate. Starting pitchers are trying to get settled into their regular routine. That said, this is a very tough spot for the Reds and particularly Hunter Greene. Cincinnati was supposed to play the Cubs Wednesday in the finale of that series but it was rained out. Then the opener of this series with the Phillies was rained out. Greene started the season opener for Cincinnati so he was supposed to pitch on more typical rest Wednesday but did not. Then Thursday's game was rained out and, remember, the Reds had an offday last Friday too. So they have played just 4 games in the past 7 days. The hitters are impacted and Greene is definitely impacted here. As for Wheeler, he pitched Saturday so he is in good shape here. Wheeler struggled in his first start this season, as did Greene, but Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a bad Reds team here. This is Cincinnati's first road game and the Phillies first home game this season. Reds were 29-52 in road games last season. On the year last season, 77% of the Reds losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a 53-36 run in home games including 20-7 last 27. Phillies 6-1 L7 against the Reds and 4-0 L4 at home and the 6 wins by an average victory margin of 3 runs. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler on good rest over Greene on too much rest, the defending NL Champs over one of the worst teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!
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04-06-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 7.5 or 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their opening starts. Expected starters are Chris Sale for Red Sox and Spencer Turnbull for Tigers. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Tigers are allowing 6 runs per game on the season and the Red Sox are allowing 6 runs per game as well. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Sale got hammered at home by the Orioles in his season opener. Keep in mind, he has not logged much MLB action since the 2019 season. He still carries a certain reputation in the marketplace but is not exactly the same pitcher he once was. Sale had a 4.80 ERA and a .288 BAA in spring training and has been homer prone, including his regular season opener, so far in 2023. As for Turnbull, he had a 4.50 ERA and was decent in spring training but then got rocked by the Rays in his regular season opener. The total on this game is low considering and we like the downward move from an 8.5 to a 7.5 as we are going to challenge these starts and these bullpens to turn things around here. We just do not see that happening. Historically, Turnbull has struggled much more in day games than night games and this is an early start in Detroit today. Also, Turnbull trying to come back from Tommy John surgery and missed last season. Tigers offense slow out of the gate this season but this is their home opener and that should get them going. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in the scoring department this season and should bounce back off yesterday's disappointing home loss. Over is the call this afternoon.
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04-05-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
#969 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET - As mentioned here in our play on Tampa Bay run line in their 10-6 win over the Nationals, the fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are perfect on the season and the Nationals have just one win on the season. Washington, entering yesterday's action, was tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Though they finally scored well yesterday, the Nationals also gave up a pile of runs and, once again, Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 5-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 2. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 4 losses and by an average score of 7.5 to 2.8. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 6-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. As for the projected starters here, Corbin is off a nightmare season last year and then began this season with a horrific start versus Braves in which he allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in just 3 innings. The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start of the season versus Detroit and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-04-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
#925 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - ACTION on pitchers is a key here as the Rays currently have Josh Fleming listed as a starter but he is really more of a long reliever and Tampa Bay could use a different pitcher as an opener. Overall, this is likely to be more of a bullpen game for the Rays. The Nationals are expected to start Chad Kuhl here and he went 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA with the Rockies last season. The key to this match-up though has nothing to do with the pitchers. The fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are 4-0 on the season and the Nationals are 1-3 on the season and tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 4-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 1. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 3 losses and by an average score of 7 to 2. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 5-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. There have not been a lot of one-run games (24.6%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and take advantage of a pick'em price in what should be a Tampa Bay blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any big price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-03-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 126 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Phillies are 0-3 to start the season and off a 1-run loss down in Texas last night. The first two defeats this season were blowout losses and this is tough spot for Philly as they had the Sunday night game down in Texas yesterday and then had to travel back to the Northeast for this one and lose an hour on the clock in the process. The Phillies are a shell of last year's team right now with Bryce Harper still out and Rhys Hoskins lost for the season. Those are two very big bats and the Phillies have scored just 4 runs total the last two games and now face a tough Yankees southpaw. They have very little experience with facing Nestor Cortes and what little they have has not been good. Conversely, the Yankees are quite familiar with Phillies starter Taijuan Walker. That's because he is a former Met and would face them annually in the Subway Series. They have a number of hitters that have pounded him and also he has been taken deep often in his starts versus the Yankees. Our computer math models project Walker gets hit hard and Cortes throws a gem. No matter the pitchers here, we like the powerful and healthier Yankees over a Phillies team struggling out of the gate. No team has a worse run differential than the Phillies -18 and also Philadelphia's 29 runs allowed is the worst mark in the majors and, keep in mind, 10 teams have already played 4 games this season and yet Phillies runs allowed worst of anyone in baseball. There have not been a lot of one-run games (22%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and look to cash some plus money on a New York blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Yankees. Lay it! |
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04-02-23 | Angels -143 v. A's | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
#921 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -145 over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - The Athletics are headed for another rough season and this is a team that went 16-27 against southpaw starters last season. This one Sunday is a match-up of lefties and the Angels should hold the upper hand. The A's got 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th for a 2-1 win in the season opener between these teams. However, after what happened Saturday, that means they have barely held a lead in this series. Oakland's only lead has been heading to the top of the 9th Thursday. In Saturday's game they gave up an 11-spot in the top of the 3rd! The Angels should roll big again Sunday. Ken Waldichuk gets the start here and he has only 7 career MLB starts and those were just last season. Then, this year in spring training he went 0-4 with a 10.54 ERA. Not only did he get hit very hard, the A's lefty also walked an average of 1 batter per inning this spring. The Angels take advantage in this one and former Dodger Tyler Anderson, coming off a strong season, makes his Angels debut here and should shine. Unlike Waldichuk, Anderson is coming off a great spring in which he had a 1.35 ERA in his 3 starts. Also unlike Waldichuk, Anderson is entering his 8th MLB season! He is a veteran that just went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA last season with the Dodgers. The Angels, when healthy, are a tough team and can challenge in this division. The A's are one of the worst teams not only in the division but in the entire league. There are no signs of an Oakland turnaround in sight and we think yesterday's blowout win is a sign of what is to come Sunday afternoon as well. Road rout for the Angels with the edge in lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen. The value is on the Angels here ... even at a -145 price. |