ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New Jersey Devils versus Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Devils Mackenzie Blackwood has been on fire between the pipes.  However, New Jersey is expected to start Louis Dominque between the pipes for this one and save Blackwood for Thursday's game against the Red Wings.  That is noteworthy to say the least because Dominque has gone 0-4 in his last 4 starts and allowed an average of 3.5 goals in those appearances.  Also, he and the Devils are facing an angry Panthers team that wasted a number of great scoring chances in their 4-1 loss at Philadelphia last night.  Indeed Florida should score plenty tonight in a bounce back game.  The problem for the Panthers tonight will be keeping the puck out of their own net though.  That's because their choices in goal are Sergei Bobrovsky in a back to back or using their current #2 goalie Samuel Montembeault.  Neither of those two options is appealing as Bobrovsky should not play in a back to back as he is only recently back from injury himself.  As for Montembeault, he has struggled this season and has only made 5 starts among his 9 appearances at the NHL level this season.  Not only have the last 3 meetings between these teams all gone over the total, they averaged a total of 8 goals scored per game.  Per our computer math model, another high-scoring match-up between these clubs is likely tonight.  Per the above, it is the perfect situation for a wild one in New Jersey.  Bet the OVER in New Jersey in NHL early evening action Tuesday 

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Montreal Canadiens versus Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

This is a great spot for the Coyotes to get back on track.  They catch the Canadiens off a key divisional win (versus Maple Leafs) and with another key divisional game (versus Bruins) on deck.  However, while we do look for Arizona to take advantage of facing Montreal in a situation where defensive focus may not be at its best, the Coyotes goal-tending situation is a major concern.  Considering that as well as the fact that the Habs are hot right now and playing with confidence, this one very easily could turn into a back and forth battle with more goals than most are expecting.  The Coyotes had to turn to Adin Hill in their game Saturday at Boston because Antti Raanta got hurt.  Raanta is dealing with a lower body injury and that also is what has kept goalie Darcy Kuemper on the shelf too as he has been out since December.  Kuemper has been upgraded to questionable for tonight's game but he'll be rusty if he plays.  If Raanta plays he is not 100% after the injury he suffered.  Also, since Kuemper went down with injury neither Raanta or Hill truly "emerged" either.  In the last 6 starts made by Hill the Coyotes ended up allowing 3 or more goals in each.  Raanta has allowed 3 or more goals in each of his last 5 road starts.  The over is 3-0 in Arizona's last 3 road games.  The Canadiens have rival Boston on deck and this season they have allowed 14 goals in 3 games when they have the Bruins up next.  It is a clear look-ahead spot and should lead to plenty of goals here as the Coyotes are seeking to avenge a 4-1 home loss to Montreal earlier this season.  Even though Canadiens goalie Carey Price has been playing well, he has struggled too in this situation (Bruins on deck) this season.  Also, Montreal is 9-5 to the over when on a winning streak of 3 or more games.  Arizona is 10-5 to the over this season when they are off a game in which they allowed at least 4 goals.  Bet the OVER in Montreal in NHL early evening action Monday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET

We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright.  Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play.  FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5.  The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less.  They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that.  Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC.  The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining.  They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season.  Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight.  The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category.  We like this match up for the FSU defense.  They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league).  That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep).  FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC.  Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot.  This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team.  While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win.  Take the points as this one goes to the wire.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche money line (-) over Minnesota Wild, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET

Double revenge game for the Avalanche as Pavel Francouz and the Avs lost at home to the Wild 6-4 in December which followed a 3-2 Colorado loss at Minnesota in November.  The Avalanche are now one of the hottest teams in the league for a long-time and Francouz has been dominant between the pipes in road games all season long.  Francouz is 6-2 with a ridiculous .947 save percentage in his 8 road starts this season!  The Wild are starting Devan Dubnyk in this one.  Dubnyk has an .862 save percentage in his last 4 starts and has been charged with 17 goals in those 4 appearances.  Compare that to Francouz who has allowed just 14 goals in 9 road games (8 starts) this season!  Huge edge in between the pipes here and, per our computer math model, Colorado is set to win this one in a road rout and avenge that December home loss!  In road games with a total set at 6 or more goals, the Avalanche have won 15 of 23 games this season.  Even though this is a back to back spot for the Avs, the revenge angle and goalie edge key this game.  Plus the Wild are off a tight divisional win and Minnesota has lost 10 of 15 this season when off a divisional game.  Bet Colorado on the money line in early evening Sunday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win.  The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board.  The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24.  While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7).  The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team.  That is not the case.  After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field.  UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island).  They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss.  Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play.  They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home.  They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road.  UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today.    

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers money line (+) over Washington Capitals, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The Flyers are off a very unusual game.  For one thing it was a shutout home ice loss which is very rare.  However, the result was quite surprising too when you consider that Philadelphia lost 5-0 despite a 46-19 edge in shots on goal.  Per our computer math model, the Flyers are poised to bounce back here and get a better end result for their efforts at Washington.  The Flyers are 4-0 their last 4 when they are entering a game off a loss.  Also, Philadelphia had won 7 of 10 games prior to their home loss to the Devils.  While Philly is off an ugly loss the Capitals are off a game in which they (in particular Alex Ovechkin) rallied for a 4-2 win over the Kings.  Los Angeles actually looked like the right side for much of that game.  Washington was able to come back against a bad LA team but they won't be so fortunate against a highly motivated division rival in this one.  The Capitals have lost 4 of their past 7 divisional home games and are over-priced here.  As a result, the big dog Flyers are offering value here that is too strong to ignore when one factors in the situation leading into this game as well.  Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening Saturday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit.  The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game.  They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games.  They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66.  Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit.  Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin.  They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU.  These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses.  NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson.  The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings.  ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG.  Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %.  North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense.  ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9.  The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET

The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET

These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference.  As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss.  There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point.  We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that.  Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland.  The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one.  Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58.  To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement.  In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game.  Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch.  Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak.  Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season.  Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game.  Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games.  On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots.  Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games.  Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Toronto Maple Leafs versus Anaheim Ducks, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

The Maple Leafs are without their #1 goalie Frederik Andersen due to injury and that is part of the reason they just acquired Jack Campbell from the LA Kings.  Of course that puts Campbell in a high-pressure spot here.  By no means is he the #1 guy here in Toronto nor has he ever been the #1 guy in his young NHL career.  However, now he goes from playing for a Los Angeles team that is wrapping up a disappointing season as the worst team in the Western Conference to suddenly being thrust into a playoff-pressure situation in hockey-crazed Toronto.  Campbell will have a ton of pressure on him in this home ice start tonight because the Leafs certainly are not known for being solid in terms of their defense in front of their netminders.  The sub-par Maple Leafs defensive work is part of the reason that Toronto has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in their last 11 games.  The Ducks also are familiar with facing goalie Jack Campbell because he was in his 4th season with Los Angeles.  Anaheim will turn to Ryan Miller tonight in goal because they used their #1 guy, John Gibson, last night at Montreal.  That means we have a match-up of back-up goaltenders here and Miller has a history of struggling badly against the Maple Leafs.  In fact, in his last 4 starts at Toronto Miller has allowed at least 4 goals in all 4 starts including 6 in each of his last two starts there!  With the Maple Leafs off back to back 5-3 losses, they won't take their foot off the gas in this one and they should put plenty past Miller.  The Leafs have scored an average of 4.1 goals per game in regulation time their past 21 games!  This is the Ducks 4th straight road game and 9 of 11 Anaheim games this season have gone over the total when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on enemy ice.  Speaking of a 9-2 totals run, the Maple Leafs last 11 games have resulted in only 2 unders and 9 overs.  Per our computer math model, this one sees at least 7 pucks find the back of the net!  Bet the OVER in Toronto in NHL early evening action Friday 

ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET

We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh Penguins money line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

This one is all about the value.  The line value here with the big dog Penguins is simply too strong to ignore.  There are a dozen games on a busy Thursday night slate of NHL action.  8 of the 12 games have big lines.  However, 6 of the 8 big dogs are teams at or very near dead last in their divisions.  We're talking about teams like Ottawa, Detroit, San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles, New Jersey, and Winnipeg.  The ONLY exception is Pittsburgh.  The Pens have 71 points on the season to rank among the top teams in the NHL.  Of course the Lightning are at home for this game and, just like the Penguins, the Bolts have also been red hot.  However, Tampa Bay's home ice record is only slightly better than Pittsburgh's road record.  This line is simply priced too high because Andrei Vasliveskiy has indeed been hot between the pipes for TB but note that the Pens have also been getting solid goaltending.  Matt Murray was spectacular in the win over the Capitals on Sunday.  Having been off for 3 straight days, the Penguins hold the rest edge here as the Lightning will be playing for the 4th time in 7 days.  Pittsburgh has won 15 of 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games.  Also, the Penguins have won 17 of 25 this season when playing with revenge.  Additionally, while the Pens have won 14 of 23 games against teams with a winning record this season Tampa Bay Bay has lost 14 of 26 games against teams with a losing record on the season.  Upset alert down in Tampa!  We'll gladly grab the +150 price with the dangerous dog in this one.  Bet Pittsburgh on the money line in early evening Thursday hockey action.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET

App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading.  They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players.  6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses).  Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned).  One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team.   UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining.  That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned.  Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well.  They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field.  UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks.  Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt.  Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago.   Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned.  We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games.  Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers.  Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers.  Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em.  We’ll take App State to win this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota.  The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch.  They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot.  The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension.  Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win.  Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough.  They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games.  They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road.  Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games.  While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game.  We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

We are value players and have made a living betting bad numbers which is the case tonight with this Over/Under. The line opened 5-full points less than it is right now and the volume of money being wagered on the game should not have dictated this big of a move. These same two teams have met twice already this season and Vegas had posted O/U’s of 216 and 218 on their games. I’ll trust the experts and bet Under in this game. Yes, we know Damian Lillard is on a ‘heater’ averaging nearly 49PPG his last six contests, but he can’t sustain that type of production and the Nuggets will be focused on stopping him tonight. Denver has the 11th best defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.067 points per possession. The Nuggets have allowed 104 or less points in 3 of their last five home games and on the season the Nuggets home games have averaged 212 total points per game. Denver is the 29th slowest paced team in the NBA overall and at home and they’ll dictate the tempo in this big Western Conference showdown. Portland games at home this season have averaged 232 total points but on the road, they’ve averaged 224.5PPG. The Blazers are a below average shooting team on the road but slightly better than average in opponents FG% when away from home. In the last five meetings between these two teams they’ve totaled: 213, 208, 196, 227 and 222 total points. Bet contrarian here and bet UNDER!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone.  After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points.  After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland.  All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road.  At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points.  MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime.  They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss.  We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins.  It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday.  PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7.  Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game.  The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game.  That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home.  Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU.  The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year.  The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points.  This is a small number to lay in this situation.  MSU by double digits.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Lightning versus Vegas Golden Knights, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Marc-Andre Fleury and Andrei Vasilevskiy - the expected goalie match-up for this one and it should be quite the duel.  The Golden Knights have been playing a much more defensive-minded, conservative game since Peter DeBoer took over for Gerard Gallant as head coach a few weeks ago.  Vegas allowed just 19 shots on goal (and Fleury stopped all 19) in a dominating win at Nashville on Saturday.  Fleury has allowed 3 or less goals in 5 of his last 6 starts.  Speaking of strong goal-tending, Vasilevskiy was the most dominant netminder in the NHL in the month of January.  He went 9-0-1 with a 1.58 GAA and a .948 save percentage.  He is the most dominant goalie in the game right now and he is back on home ice.  Vasilevskiy has not lost a game in regulation in 16 straight starts and has held opponents to 3 or less goals in 10 straight starts.  Last season he compiled a 1.92 GAA in his two starts against Vegas.  Fleury has allowed a total of only 11 goals in his last 5 starts against Tampa Bay.  The Knights, as noted above, have been a different team with DeBoer at the helm.  The total set on this game is a 6.5 and yet Vegas has seen 5 of their past 7 games total 6 or less goals.  7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games have totaled 6 or less goals.  It is getting to that time of year when teams are starting to play a little more defensive-minded hockey as playoff races are heating up.  Tampa Bay is in a battle with the Bruins for the top spot in the Atlantic Division while Vegas is in a fierce battle to retain a top 3 spot in the Pacific Division.  Look for goals to be at a premium in this game as Fleury and Vasilevskiy continue their strong play between the pipes.  When Vegas is off a shutout win the under has cashed in their very next game 14 of 21 times!  The Lightning are also off a shutout win at San Jose Saturday.  When Tampa Bay is off a shutout win the under has cashed in their very next game 13 of 16 times!  Also, the under has cashed in 5 of 6 times this season when the Lightning are playing with 2 days of rest between games.  Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in NHL early evening action Tuesday   

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks,  7PM ET

This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion.  The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule.  The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs.  Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs).  The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season).  KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team.  Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp.  San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143.  Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game.  San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game.  Slight edge to Frisco.  We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions.  Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect.  Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter!  The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers.  We agree with that.  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense.  They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground.  If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl.  We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines.  We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday.  Take San Francisco.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET

We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Washington Capitals versus Pittsburgh Penguins, Sunday at 12:35 PM ET

With their OT win over the Flyers on Friday, the Penguins have now allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games.  The Capitals are off a high-scoring win at Ottawa Friday.  The Capitals have now allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game their last 4 games.  Washington has scored an average of 4.8 goals per game their last 5 games and are loaded with firepower.  Of course the Penguins are well known for their firepower up front too.  This is especially true now that Sidney Crosby is back after an extended absence.  It is a divisional battle, it is Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals hosting Crosby and the Penguins.  Entertainment value off the charts for this early TV game on Super Bowl Sunday and, per our computer math model, there will be goals aplenty in this one.  Both hockey clubs have been a little weak between the pipes in recent games and there are plenty of sharpshooters to take advantage in this key Metro Division battle.  Look for the lamp to be lit early and often in this one.  Pittsburgh's games are on a 6-3 run to the over.  Washington's games are 19-7 to the over this season when the Capitals are off a game in which they scored 4 or more goals. Bet the OVER in Washington in NHL action early Sunday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog.  The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14).  BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th.  The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable.  This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well.  The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining.  On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night.  BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9).  With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco.  We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home.  St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far.  In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time).  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %.  Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep.  They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits.  St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge.  Cougars cover easily here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Vancouver Canucks money line (+) over New York Islanders, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET

This is a great spot to back Vancouver and a horrible spot for the Islanders even though New York is on home ice.  While Vancouver has already played twice since the All Star break, this is the Islanders first game since Tuesday January 21st.  Also, New York does not have another game until Tuesday which means this is their only game in a span of two weeks.  The Islanders are sure to be rusty as a result.  As for the Canucks, there is no rust here as they have come roaring right out of the All Star break with back to back wins by a combined score of 7 to 3.  Vancouver has now won 4 straight games and 13 of 16.  This is in stark contrast to the recent performance of the Islanders as they have been enduring an overall losing stretch including, surprisingly, losing 7 of their past 9 home games!  Home ice means very little in this one and the Canucks are in the much better situation plus offering plus money odds in the 120 range for this one.  We'll take it!  Bet Vancouver on the money line in early afternoon Saturday hockey action.

ASA 10* NBA play on: Over 222.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

A few days ago, we successfully played Under in the Thunder versus Kings game but will flip here and bet Over when the Thunder take on the Suns. OKC is scoring more points on the road right now than they do at home with scoring outputs of 120, 113, 120, 112 and 117 in their last five away from home. OKC has been a slower paced team on the season (22nd) but have played faster in their last five games at 99 possessions per game which is 14th fastest in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are already top 10 in pace of play at 101.9 possessions per game so they’ll push tempo in this one and look to get out and run. The Thunder are slightly better than average in points per possession while the Suns are middle of the pack. Both are near average in terms of defensive efficiency also. The average NBA total points scored is 221 and the current statistics or how these teams are playing right now suggest 227 total points in this contest. OKC is shooting over 51% their last five games while the Suns have allowed opponents to hit o over 48% of their FG attempts. These same two teams met in mid-December and the posted number was 224.5 and they combined for 234 total points. We like the value and will play OVER here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET

We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach).  They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime.  Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon.  This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction.  They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon.  They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon.  Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play.  Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference.  Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate.  These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win.  The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%.  Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season.  With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal.  Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak.  Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern.  They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight.  The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers.  The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss.  Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned.  They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions.  Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking.  The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend.  Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa.  Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season.  The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts.  And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins.  Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later.  Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests.  They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points.  Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points.  Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight.  Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight.  Lay it with Maryland.  

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET

Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Los Angeles Kings, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

Teams that have played a game after the All Star break have a big edge over teams that haven't played.  We saw that last night with St Louis off a loss in their first game back and then winning at Calgary (a team that hadn't played).  Also Ottawa upset the Sabres last night and the fact that Buffalo hadn't played and was rusty was a big factor as the Senators had played the night before and it showed.  That makes this situation a particularly strong one because one of the best teams in the league (Tampa Bay) is taking on one of the worst teams in the league (Los Angeles).  The Kings have not played since Saturday the 18th so this is a span of more than a week and a half off!  As for the Lightning, they played Monday at Dallas and suffered an overtime loss against the Stars.  As their coach noted, Tampa Bay was sloppy in their first game back and made mistakes.  This has been a key theme for all the teams coming back from extended time off.  We expect it to be no different for the Kings tonight and Tampa Bay, already having a game under their belts, will take full advantage.  Los Angeles has lost 11 of its past 14 games!  The Kings scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game in those 11 defeats.  Now the rusty Kings will be tasked with trying to stop an angry Tampa Bay team that had won 12 of 14 games prior to the loss to the Stars.  The Lightning have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in those 12 victories!  You can see this is a mismatch and, of course, that is why Tampa Bay is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line.  Where we get the value is by playing the Lightning on the puck line and laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money price in return!  4 of Tampa's last 6 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  4 of the Kings last 5 home losses have come by a multiple-goal margin.  Also, Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had won 10 straight starts prior to the OT loss at Dallas.  The Lightning have been getting fantastic goal-tending.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a comeback price, currently in +120 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 221 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

There is tremendous value with this Under tonight for a few different reasons. First off, these same two teams met in early December and the posted Total on that game was 207.5 which is obviously much lower than tonight’s number. In that game, OKC and SAC combined for just 187 total points. Vegas has posted a Total north of 220 this game which right around the league average for the Total points scored in an NBA game. The math for these two teams doesn’t add up to 220 either. Both prefer to play slower as the Thunder are 22nd in the league in pace of play, while the Kings are 27th. Both are average in terms of offensive efficiency with OKC having the 15th overall rankings while the Kings are 21st. Now we factor in the defensive efficiency numbers and OKC is 14th and the Kings 19th.  To sum it up these are two average offenses and defenses yet play at a very slow pace, so we don’t expect an ‘average’ NBA game with 220 total points. On the season the Thunder games have average 218 total points, the Kings are at 217PPG. Sacramento’s scoring numbers are way up their last five games but two of those have been over-time affairs. The Thunder have had a few higher scoring games recently, but they also played three of the seven fastest paced teams in the league. This game just doesn’t add up to 220+ so we’re betting UNDER!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET

Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league.  Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference.  They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation.  Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road!  Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5.  On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road.  At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota.  Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games.  This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG.  We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend.  South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits.  SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points.  On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record.  Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league.  Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team.  ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight.  So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA).  Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road.  This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it.

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic.  Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56.  The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%.  Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC.  The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points.  They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers.  Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games.  Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best.  We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points.  They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it.  They should be focused here.  Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16.  That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10.  The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015.  They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog.  Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 135 Points - Wisconsin @ Iowa, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

This total opened at 138 which is exactly where we had it according to our power ratings.  It has dropped 3 full points to 135 and now the value is absolutely on the OVER in this game.  The Badgers are coming off an offensive clunker scoring only 51 points on Friday @ Purdue.  They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in that game facing a Purdue defense that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Boilers also love a slow paced game so there simply weren’t many possessions in that game.  Wisconsin has struggled offensively in their 5 conference road games averaging just under 60 PPG.  However they’ve played some of the top defenses in the nation in those 5 games facing the 9th, 11th, 18th, 19th, and 29th rated teams in defensive efficiency.  Tonight they take on an Iowa team that ranks 85th in that category.  The Hawkeyes are also the fastest paced team in the Big 10 and while we don’t expect a track meet as Wisconsin will slow the game down at times, we won’t have 2 teams that play at a snail’s pace.  Iowa’s offense is best in the Big 10 and #3 nationally in efficiency averaging 1.18 PPP.  They have scored at least 72 points in every Big 10 game but one.  This is their 3rd consecutive home game and in their first 2 they put up 90 on a solid Michigan defense and 85 on a Rutgers defense that ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency.  Wisconsin defense is solid but nothing like they were a few years ago when they were consistently the top defense in the Big 10.  This year the Badgers rate 6th in the conference in defensive efficiency.  As far as efficiency goes both offenses are better than the opposing defenses.  Wisconsin’s 5th most efficient offense in conference play will be playing into an Iowa defense that ranks 9th in the league.   Iowa’s offense ranks 1st in efficiency in Big 10 play and they will be facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks 6th.  We also have 2 of the best FT shooting teams in the conference with both hitting over 75% in league play so we’ll get some extra points from the charity stripe.  The last 6 meetings @ Iowa between these two rivals have totaled 138, 152, 126, 137, 153, and 136 points.  All but one of those would have gone OVER tonight’s number.  Our numbers have Iowa in the low 70’s here and we think Wisconsin has a decent shot to get to 70 as well.     

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Nashville Predators versus Toronto Maple Leafs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

The Maple Leafs rank in the top 5 in the league for goal scoring this season.  However, Toronto also ranks among the bottom 5 in the league when it comes to goals against average!  As a result, we look for a very high-scoring game at Nashville Monday evening.  In the first game after the All Star break, teams can be a little sloppy with the puck.  This results in turnovers which can lead to odd man rushes and, overall, better scoring opportunities than usual in a game.  That certainly helps the cause here and we like the fact that the Maple Leafs have scored an average of 4.3 goals per game in their last 19 games!  Toronto also has allowed an average of 5 goals per game in its last 6 games.  The total has gone 5-1 to the over in the Maple Leafs last 6 games.  That is not surprising given those numbers.  Both of these teams have struggled badly on the penalty kill this season.  The Leafs are out for revenge as they were shutout in both meetings withe Predators last season.  While Toronto has a great shot at getting revenge here, we don't trust their play in front of their own net and expect the Preds to match them goal for goal in this one.  Per our computer math model there is high likelihood that each team gets to 3 goals in this one.  With the total set at 6.5 goals that would guarantee that this one turns into a winning ticket.  The Predators enter this game having lost 7 of their past 11 games and they allowed 4 or more goals in all 7 of those defeats.  The O/U is 3-1 this season when Toronto is playing with 3 or more days of rest between games.  The O/U is 4-0 this season when the Preds are playing with 3 or more days of rest between games.  Look for those trends to hold true again tonight on Monday.  Bet the OVER in Nashville in NHL action Monday 

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET

We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* Play on: UNDER 217 LA Clippers @ Orlando Magic, 6PM ET

These same two teams met recently in Los Angeles and combined for exactly 217 total points, but we don’t feel today’s game gets to that number.  In the most recent meeting, the Magic who are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA gave up 122 to the Clippers but they were also coming off a big game against the Lakers the night before. Orlando is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.064 points per possession. The team right below the Magic in DEFF ratings is the LA Clippers who give up just 1.068PPP. LA plays a little faster in terms of tempo ranking 8th but the home team Magic are the 27th slowest paced team in the league at just 98.1 possessions per game. Orlando has really struggled scoring of late by failing to reach 100 points in 3 of their last five games and scoring 106 or less in 4 of five. The Magic are 29th in the NBA in scoring at just 103.8PPG and will have a tough time against this Clippers defense. With Los Angeles off a higher scoring game against the Heat we expect a low scoring contest today. BET UNDER!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date.  They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams.  In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12).  Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road.  At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG.  Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%.  Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time.  The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up.  Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s.  Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters.  Line value is with Siena here.  Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT.  Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET

We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars.  We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State.  Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday.  These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2.  Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year.  They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league.  Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games.  One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch.  Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here.  Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team.  Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry.  The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today.  Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover.          

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET

Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road.  That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season.  Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points.  We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points.  It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck.  UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win.  It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year.  ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight.  Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak.  ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win.  They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006.  There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored.  Take Illinois State.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET

The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time.  South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84.  As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one.  During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year.  They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit).  We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards.  Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league.   They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points.  They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense.  That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country.  The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally).  They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc.  The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset.  The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers.  He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined.  On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season.  IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit.  We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET

We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET

This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10.  The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings.  Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc.  The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7.  The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins.  They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday.  Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota.  The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG.  This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play.  As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games.  They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG.  Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here.  Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play.  Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line.  Take Michigan. 

ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight.  

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Blackhawks versus Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 8:35 PM ET

Fantastic set-up here.  Both these teams have been piling up wins and goals and we're certainly in for a spirited battle Tuesday.  That's because Panthers coach Joel Quenneville is making his return to the United Center.  He led the Blackhawks to 3 Stanley Cup Championships during his tenure in Chicago and ranks 2nd on the all time list of NHL wins.  Quenneville has done a great job in Florida and the Panthers enter this game surging as they won again last night.  However, Florida has a goalie issue tonight because Sergei Bobrovsky was in between the pipes last night and Chris Driedger is out with an injury.  That means that Bobrovsky, whom did allow 4 goals at Minnesota last night, or Sam Montembeault - whom is the #3 goalie - will be between the pipes tonight.  Neither option is a good one as Bobrovsky just got back from injury and rarely ever starts in back to back games.  As for Montembeault, he allowed 3 goals in a back-up role in his most recent appearance.  Prior to that, in his last 3 starts Montembeault allowed 5 goals in each start.  The Panthers will be trying to contain a red hot Blackhawks team.  Chicago has won 5 straight games and scored 4 or more goals in 4 of the 5 wins.  Florida has also won 5 straight games and they have scored at least 4 goals in all 5 games  Per our computer math model a 5-4 game has a solid probability of occurring.  Of course it only takes a 4-3 win to make this play a winner as the total is currently 6.5 goals as of mid-day Tuesday.  The two meetings between these teams last season each totaled 9 goals!   In non-conference games the Panthers are 45-25 to the over including 12-3 this season.  Blackhawks home games are on a 3-0 run to the over.  We see every reason to believe that streak reaches 4-0 tonight.  Bet the OVER in Chicago in NHL action Tuesday 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation.  The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68.  At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league.  This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose.  Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th.  That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42.  They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc.  Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago.  They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%).  The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight.  After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4.  Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014.  We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after.  We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent.  Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points.  We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover.  Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  More of the same on Tuesday.

ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET

*Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET

ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA.  They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race.  One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th.  It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s).  Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not.  ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season.  They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola.  This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS).  The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th.  Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday.  Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings.  Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets over Chicago Blackhawks, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

Fantastic set-up here.  The Jets are off an ugly 7-1 home loss to the Lightning Friday.  The Blackhawks are off a huge 6-2 win at Toronto last night.  Winnipeg has the rest edge as a result and they also come into this one angry just like the Bolts were angry when they crushed the Jets on Friday night.  Now Winnipeg turns the tables and is on the right end of a blowout against a Blackhawks team they've dominated.  The only recent exception was the last game between these two clubs when Chicago prevailed 4-1 even though it was the 4th straight game in which the Jets outshot the Blackhawks.  Prior to that Chicago win, Winnipeg had won 6 straight meetings between these teams.  The Jets have won each of their last three meetings with the Blackhawks in Chicago.  Also, Winnipeg had averaged scoring 4.5 goals per game in that 6-0 run against Chicago.  The Jets have won 8 of 9 games this season when off a game in which they were held to 1 goal or less.  The Blackhawks have lost 9 of 14 divisional games this season.  Bet Winnipeg in NHL action Sunday  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit.  We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them.  They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit.  Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road).  They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league.  We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018.  The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3.  Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night.  State is also one of the favorites to win the conference.  The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard).  Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup.  They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG.  South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home).  Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV.  While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET

This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET

The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog.  However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games.  It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs.  In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game.  They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs.  That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past.  KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home.  Just a huge situational edge for KC.  In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards.  As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs.  Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half.  Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line.  The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game.  The Titans were very fortunate in our view.  KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team.  The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee.  The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game.  KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here.  Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC.  Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home.  Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now.    While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG.  They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points.  We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits.  

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON San Jose Sharks over Vancouver Canucks, Saturday at 10:05 PM ET

The Sharks had been rolling prior to this road trip.  San Jose was back on track with wins in 6 of 9 games.  Now the Sharks have begun this road trip by losing a pair of games by a combined score of 10 to 3.  After those ugly losses, and with this being their final game prior to the All Star break, San Jose will respond with one of their best games of the season tonight.  If Dell gets the start between the pipes, he has a .927 save percentage in his last 4 starts.  If Jones is in the crease, the Sharks are 6-3 in his divisional starts this season.  The teams have split their first two games this season and that makes San Jose 8-3 in their last 11 games against Vancouver.  The Canucks are off a 3-1 win over the Coyotes but, prior to that strong effort on defense, Vancouver had allowed an average of 4.4 goals in 5 games.  The Sharks have the better penalty kill in this match-up and the Canucks power play has been in an extended slump.  San Jose has won 56 of their last 92 divisional games.  With the Sharks off back to back ugly losses and Vancouver off a big divisional win, another strong trend comes into play here.  When the Canucks are off a divisional game they have lost 46 of 71 times!  Per our computer math model, the road dog gets the upset win here as Vancouver proves unable to duplicate the effort they just had versus Arizona Thursday.  Bet San Jose in NHL action Saturday  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Great spot for the Terps here.  They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin.  Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week.  Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State.  They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good.  Not so much on the road.  Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road.  In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc.  To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories.  Not good to say the least.  Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG.  All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points.  The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game.  Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year.  Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56.  At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2.  The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season.  Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year.  Lay the small number.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points.

ASA play on: 10* OVER 225 Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET

This marks the 3rd meeting of the season for these two clubs and the first two soared Over the posted totals with 248 and 254 total points being scored in the two games. Those two contests saw 184 and 183 combined field goals attempted which are both higher than league average per game. The Pelicans are 5th in the NBA in pace of play and will look to push the tempo. Utah is 20th in pace but make up for it with the 11th ranked offensive efficiency unit averaging 1.108 points per possession. The Jazz average 109.7PPG on the season but during their current 10-game winning streak they are scoring a hair under 117PPG. New Orleans has also seen an uptick in scoring of late as they are scoring +5 more points per game in their last five games compared to their season average. The Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday tonight who is one of the teams leading scorers but he’s also one of the leagues best perimeter defenders which makes stopping the Jazz’s Donovan Mitchel (24PPG) that much tougher. The Over is on a 7-3 run in this series and win #8 is on hand this evening.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Kings at Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Kings have been instructed by their head coach to play faster and with more aggression.  The result has been 2 of their 3 games on this road trip totaling 7 goals.  With Los Angeles facing one of the highest scoring teams in the league - and also a team that currently has a goalie issue - another game with plenty of scoring is likely on Thursday.  Florida is expected to again be without starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky tonight.  The means Sam Montembeault (5 goals allowed in each of his last 3 starts) or Chris Driedger (4 goals allowed in 3 of his last 4 starts) are the two options here for the Panthers.  Neither of those options yield much in the way of confidence in the Florida crease   However, what does yield confidence for the Panthers is the way they've been playing in the offensive zone.  Florida's offensive production has been particularly lethal on home ice.  The Panthers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games and Florida has averaged scoring 5.4 goals per game in its past 7 home games.  The Panthers have allowed an average of 4 goals per game in their past 6 home games.  Our computer math model is projecting this game to end with 8 goals with projections ranging from a 4-3 to a 5-4 game.  Either way, seeing 7 or more goals in this one seems quite likely and the over is 7-0 in Florida's last 7 games as a host.  We look for the high-scoring trend to again hold true tonight  as the over streak reaches 8 in a row.  Bet the OVER in the Florida Panthers game in early evening NHL action Thursday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET

Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  They are better than their record and playing very well right now.  After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT.  Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win.  Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena.  Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week.  Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0.  However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock.  Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina.  Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned).  The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT.  This line is too high.  Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally).  Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half.  Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week

This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion.  The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6.  That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining.  Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home.  They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th).  They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East.  The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field.  Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record.  They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile.  We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th.  The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score.  Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home.  They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned.  This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons.  We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32.  To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002.  They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons.  Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8.  Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament.  The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10.  The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road.  In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home.  We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.   Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade.  Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak.  They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home.  The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned.  Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.   Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend.  Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago.  They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players.  Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season.  They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th.  DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation.  The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul.  Villanova is good, not great.  Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here.  It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Penguins will have Sidney Crosby back in the lineup tonight for the first time in two months.  Look for him to provide a huge spark for the Pens on home ice.  Note that already, even without Crosby, Pittsburgh games have featured plenty of scoring of late. The Penguins last 3 games have all reached a total of 7 goals and those were on the road.  Now Pittsburgh is back on home ice where their last 5 games have averaged 7.2 goals per game.  The Penguins have allowed 3 or more goals in 4 straight games.  The Wild have had one shutout win in their last 10 games but in the other 9 games they have allowed an average of 4 goals per game.  Per our computer math model, each team has a high probability of getting to at least the 3 goal mark in this one.  With a total set at 6 goals for this one, Crosby coming back, and strong odds of a no less than a 4-3 final...this is a situation that earned our top game rating.  The first meeting between these teams this season totaled 11 goals and the Penguins have averaged scoring 4.5 goals per game in their last 4 games against the Wild.  Pittsburgh is 19-11 to the over when on a winning streak of 3 or more games.  This season the Penguins are a perfect 3-0 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road.  They are going to make the most of this opportunity on home ice and Crosby is coming back to a rousing celebration here at PPG Paints Arena.  The result will be plenty of scoring in this non-conference match-up.  Bet the OVER in the Pittsburgh Penguins game in early evening NHL action Tuesday.

ASA play on: 10* UNDER 212 Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

This match up features the 3rd (Kings) and 4th (Magic) slowed paced teams in the NBA as both average 98 or less possessions per game. Both teams also have some great defensive characteristics which also favors the Under in this game. Orlando allows the least amount of points per game in the NBA at 103.3 while Sacramento gives up 109PPG which is 13th best. Clearly the energy spent on the defensive end of the court affects their offensive numbers which are dreadful. Orlando ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 103.5PPG and are 26th in offensive efficiency rankings. Sacramento isn’t a whole lot better with the 24th scoring offense in the league at 106.2PPG and the 21st OEFF rankings. The Magic have held 8 of their last ten opponents to 101 or less points. The Kings defense has been especially good against other teams in the league with similar offensive numbers as Orlando’s. The last four times these two teams have met the Under has cashed all four times and 7 of the last eight. Bet the value here…BET UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years.

ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET

The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET

With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony.  With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson.  While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s.  They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season.  Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm.  This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again.  They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week.  Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games.  Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%.  They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up.  Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less.  Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games.  Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons.  We like GB to win this game by a TD or more.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Gophers at home.  They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams.  Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT.  Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night.  The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half.  Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10.  At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9.  The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday.  They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup.  In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes.  It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game!  Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough.  As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points.  Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan.  With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2.  So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record?  While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record.  Take the Gophers.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET

GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that.  They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State.  In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead.  GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams.  They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4.  As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country.  They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season.  Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far.  They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record.  The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game).  Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG.  Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game.  The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation).  Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well.  They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG.  That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State.  That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG.  GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes.  Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season.  Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota.  They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort.  Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game.  They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week.  The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State.  Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage.  On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%.  Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%.  The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road.  That has proven true thus far.  If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season.  Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET

We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season.  They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor.  After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games.  In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson.  Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor).  Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th).  Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court.  The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment.  The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena.  They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation).  They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers.  The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation.  Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14.  This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. 

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion.  Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova.  They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread.  KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength.  This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons.  However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past.  We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game.  We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak.  This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams.  They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time.  Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons.  Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th).  The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation.  Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th).  Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight.  KU with the win and cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU

TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home.  This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November.  They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games.  KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home.  All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100.  Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition.  The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th.  Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half.  TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well.  Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%.  TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation.  That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task.  This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday.  They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here.        

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Bruins over Nashville Predators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a horrible spot for Nashville.  The Predators not only fired their head coach, Peter Laviolette, last night they also fired associate coach Kevin McCarthy.  Nashville just hired their new head coach, John Hynes, today.  This is a team in disarray coming back from a road trip out west as they just played Sunday evening in Anaheim also.  So they are on short rest with travel, the coaching staff is being shuffled, and they are facing a Bruins team that is angry off just their 2nd home regulation loss this season and seeking revenge too.  Yes Boston has not forgotten the 4-3 OT loss that Nashville handed them just before Christmas on home ice.  Now the Bruins look to return the favor on enemy ice at Nashville.  The Predators also have a divisional game on deck at Chicago while Boston has another non-conference game on deck.  The Bruins are off their first regulation loss in over 3 weeks and it was an ugly 4-1 defeat.  That is the type of loss that gets a team refocused and Boston gets a shot at revenge here too.  The Bruins power play has converted 27.3% this season while the Predators have converted only 16.8% this season.  On the penalty kill Boston has allowed opponents to convert only 14.2% while Nashville has allowed opponents to convert 25.8% with the man advantage.  The Bruins have won 33 of 46 when playing with 2 or more days of rest between games.  Boston has also won 21 of 30 after being held to 1 goal or less in their prior game.  The Predators have lost 9 of their last 13 games.  The Bruins rate the special teams edge and the situational edge here and the coaching situation for Nashville for this game is a mess.  Bet Boston in NHL evening action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

The number on this game has been bet up by more than 4-points and we’ll put ourselves on the oddsmakers side here and play UNDER the total. Both teams have injury concerns and will be missing key contributors this evening. In their last five games the Pistons have played well defensively except for a pair of games against San Antonio and the Clippers where they gave up 132 and 126 points. But the Spurs are the 9th most efficient offense in the NBA while the Clippers are 4th. The Cavaliers offense isn’t anywhere close to that as they rank 27th out of 30 teams a 1.052 points per possession. Recently the Cavs gave up 121 to OKC who is 9th in OEFF their last five games and playing well on the offensive end of the floor. In another game the Cavs gave up 118 to Minnesota but the Wolves play fast ranking 8th in pace of play. Tempo won’t be a concern here as these teams rank 19th (Pistons) and 23rd (Cavs) in pace of play or possessions per game. Both teams field goal attempts are trending down their last five games compared to their season averages which means less scoring opportunities for both. On December 3rd when these two teams last met the Pistons put up 127 points on 54% shooting but had Blake Griffin and Morris in the lineup (both out tonight) who combined for 36-points. Our calculation project just 213 total points being scored here. BET UNDER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 215 Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

Our baseline for NBA average total points scored per game is around 220. The Total set on this game is a few baskets lower than a league average game. Our analytics say this game won’t get to 215 total points with the slowest paced team (Kings) in the NBA involved. The Warriors are average or 15th in the league in pace at 99.8 possessions per game. In their last five games the Warriors have played slower yet with 98 possessions per game. These two teams are bad when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Warriors ranking 28th and Sacramento 21st. Golden State is the worst EFG% shooting team in the NBA at 48.7% while the Kings rank 19th at 52%. These same two teams squared off in mid-December and combined for just 179 points and that was with the Kings shooting a remarkable 60% from the field. The Warriors had Draymond Green and D-Russell for that game (both out tonight) and still only managed 79-points. The Under has cashed 8 of the last 11 on this floor between these two teams and another low scoring affair is on hand tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET

UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games.  They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here.  First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point.  This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip.  Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss).  The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6.  They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1.  All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200.  The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th.  South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington.  They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference.  This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span.  Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category.  The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win.  UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up.  Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here.   Texas Arlington is the side tonight. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280

The Redhawks went 5-0 in games decided by 7 points or less this season.  However, in games decided by 15 points or more Miami-Ohio went 2-4.  The odds makers posted a big line on this game and we feel it is justified and like the fact that the Redhawks tend to end up on the wrong side of these blowouts.  Miami-Ohio managed more than 27 points just 3 times in 13 games this season.  Compare that to a Louisiana-Lafayette team that was held below 28 points just ONCE this entire season.  The Redhawks simply won't be able to keep up with the high-powered offense of the Ragin Cajuns.  Louisiana averaged 43.1 points per game in their 10 wins this season.  You can see why we're expecting a blowout here.  On the season the Ragin Cajuns averaged 501.3 yards per game.  By way of comparison, Miami averaged only 305.9 yards per game on offense.  Additionally, Louisiana allowed an average of only 19.9 points per game while the Redhawks allowed 28.2 points per game.  The location of the Alabama Bowl in Mobile, AL of course also favors Louisiana.  The Ragin Cajuns have some extra motivation after losing badly in last year's bowl game against Tulane as they fell to the Green Wave by a margin of 17 points.  They're going to take advantage of mismatches this time around as they face a MAC team that won some tight games this season with "smoke and mirrors" as their full season stats reflect.  Miami gets exposed in this game and we look for UL-Lafayette to roll big.  Lay it!  Bet the Ragin' Cajuns in evening action Monday.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Anaheim Ducks over Nashville Predators, Sunday at 10:05 PM ET

The home team has dominated this series of late as the host had won 5 straight meetings entering this season and the first meeting of this season as well.  The average margin of victory in the last 6 games has been 2.2 goals and our computer math model is calling for another blowout win for the home team in this one.  Perfect situation as Anaheim enters this game off a loss Thursday while the Predators are off a road win Saturday.  Nashville is in a back to back spot while the Ducks are in a bounce back spot and have a significant rest edge.  The Ducks have struggled early this season but the Predators actually have lost 12 of 19 games against teams with a losing record this season.  In a home games with the total set at 5.5 goals by the bookmakers, the Ducks have won 52 of their last 84 games in this situation.  Bet Anaheim in NHL late night action Sunday

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line is way too high in our opinion.  It should be under 7 according to our power ratings.  To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans.  The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records.  For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record.  On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year.  They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC.  Recent results have pushed this number too high.  Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position.  New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera.  Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee.  However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained).  That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record.  The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago.  If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG.  Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP.  We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion.  Take Minnesota on Sunday.   

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored?  Looks too easy to take SDSU.  We like Utah State here.  The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference.  They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team.  They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances.  Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up.  The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point.  These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54.  The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here.  SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month.  Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue.  He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding.  Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game.  With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year.  It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West.  It will matter here.  We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not.  They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%).  The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot.  That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops).  We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs.  Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC.  They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs.  Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense.  The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games.  We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here.  They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England.  Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards.  Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG.  On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points.  However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late.  When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG.  They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL).  On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP.  These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13.  The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball.  A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin.  The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game.  Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%).  Take the points here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:35 PM ET

The Stars intensity on defense could be down a few notches for this one and how could you blame them?  Dallas is off a huge outdoors win in the game played at the Cotton Bowl on New Years Day.  A huge comeback win for the Stars and it was a highly anticipated game.  Now the Red Wings, having one of the worst records in the league, are paying a visit to Dallas.  This classic flat spot, in our strong opinion, is going to lead plenty of goals.  The Stars have been the comeback kids of late and, given the situation, don't be surprised if the Red Wings get out to an early lead here but then Dallas battles back for the win as that has been their "M O" of late.  Per our computer model this game is projected to get at least 6 goals and likely 7 before all is said and done.  With this total set at 5.5 goals there is great value on the over.  The Stars have seen 5 of their last 6 games totals 6 or more goals.  The Red Wings are off a shutout win but previously allowed an average of 4.2 goals per game their 6 prior games.  Though Detroit has struggled this season they have been more competitive recently and have not lost by a multiple goal margin in any of their past 3 games.  The over moves to 5-2 when the Red Wings enter a game off a shutout win.  The over moves to 6-1 in the Stars last 7 games.  Bet the OVER in the Dallas Stars game in evening NHL action Friday.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET

The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers.  We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Indiana Hoosiers vs Tennessee Volunteers, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #293

Tennessee has a lot of momentum heading into this bowl as they won 5 straight games to finish the season 7-5. Volunteers QB Jarrett Guarantino has helped lead the way as the Vols signal-caller had a 16-8 TD-INT ratio including 8-2 over the last 5 games of the season. Of course when playing on an over it is always good to see teams emphasizing the pass. Though Tennessee still uses the run a lot they found the end zone 5 times through the air in Guarantino's L3 regular season games. Also, the Vols game plan has a lot to do with their opponent. Tennessee knows they can attack through the air against Indiana in the same way that they did against Missouri in their second to last game in the season. In that one the Volunteers QB threw 40 times and totaled 415 passing yards! The Hoosiers offensive attack has come on strong since Patrick Ramsey took over for Michael Penix Jr. Ramsey finished the season with a 23-8 ratio. The Hoosiers average 309 passing yards per game! Indiana scored at least 27 points in all but 2 of their dozen games this season! Those two exceptions were against Ohio State and Michigan and those are two of the top defenses in the Big Ten. In the other 10 games the Hoosiers averaged scoring 36.7 points per game. Tennessee scored 24 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Volunteers will take advantage of an Indiana defense that allowed 28 points or more in 5 of its last 6 games. In terms of pace here, Indiana likes to play fast and they do score well. We expect them to set the tempo here and force the Volunteers to keep up. Of course that is the perfect recipe for an over and with consideration to the Hoosiers sub-par defense the Vols will indeed be able to match them score for score. Per our computer math model, this game total will reach into the 60+ point range. Bet the OVER in this Thursday evening match-up.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET

These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal.  Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115.  Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court.  This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season.  The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins.  St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road.  Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings.  STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL.  This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues.  Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season.  So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight.  These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home.  One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess.  In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds!  They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again.  St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%.  We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog.    

#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Arizona Coyotes over St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 9:05 PM ET

The early line move here is on Arizona.  That is sharp money.  How do you know?  That is the case because St Louis has won 8 straight games and the Coyotes have lost 3 straight games and yet it is Arizona that is getting wagering attention.  We like the Coyotes here as they are ready to bounce back strong on home ice.  Arizona has lost each of its past two home games and they have not lost 3 consecutive home games this season.  Their overall 3-game losing streak is also unlikely to continue as they have never lost 4 straight games this season.  The Blues have big games on deck at Colorado and Vegas and might overlook the Coyotes here.  Per our computer math model, St Louis is going to drop to 1-3 this season when playing with home loss revenge.  Yes, Arizona beat the Blues earlier this season and that was actually the 5th Coyotes win in the last 6 meetings between these teams.  By the way, the last 6 meetings between these teams have had an average margin of 3.5 goals so look for a home blowout here.  The Coyotes are 7-1 this season after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. Bet Arizona in NHL evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Texas Longhorns vs Utah Utes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #262

We expect both defenses to play with a lot of emotion in this game. Texas fired defensive coordinator Todd Orlando on December 1st. The fact is the Longhorns defense dealt with some significant injury issues during the season and that had a lot to do with their mid-season struggles. The Texas defense finished up the season allowing 24 points or less in each of their last 4 games. The Utes are favored by about a TD in this game. That means if the Longhorns do their job on D here (and we feel strongly that they will) and assuming the odds makers are in the right range with the spread on this game, you're looking at this game falling into the range of a 24-17 Utah win. Of course that would have this game falling well under the total by a double digit margin and we feel we have significant value here. The Longhorns defense will play like a unit that has something to prove here and they are going to play with plenty of emotion in this one. Speaking of something to prove, the Utes defense is ready to respond after a poor effort versus the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Utah is one of the best defenses in the nation but they allowed 37 points in the loss to Oregon. The Utes are ready to prove that was a fluke. Utah entered that game having held their opponents to 17 points or less in 10 of 12 games in the regular season. Notice how that fits well with the projected 24-17 final score we mentioned above. The Utes defense allowed just 13.2 points and 256.2 yards per game this season. The Longhorns defense, when healthy, is fully capable of strong games. Texas plays in the Big 12 and faces some high-octane offenses as a result. Even with that the UT defense showed what is capable of down the stretch run as their secondary got healthy and they battled hard. The Longhorns will have no trouble getting fired up for this game as it is being played in San Antonio which is only about a 1 hour drive from their campus. The Utes are also anxious to show that their Pac-12 Championship Game debacle was a fluke. Utah will look to their strong defense to win this game and then they like to pound the ball on the ground with their offense as they average 207 rushing yards per game. This game has all the right ingredients for a strong defensive game from both teams and an emphasis on the ground game by both offenses. The Longhorns would like to pass a little more but the Utes pass efficiency defense ranks among the tops in the nation! Bet the UNDER in this Tuesday evening match-up.

#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET

We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier.  Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships.  They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins.  They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players).  How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas?  This might be a tough game for them.  Xavier is very good this year.  They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio.  Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2).  They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago.  The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games.  Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games.  Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT.  One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney.  That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4.  This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back.  We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game.  Take the points. 

#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country.  While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team.  They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year.  They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next.  Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one.  Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards.  The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest.  In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State.  You get the point.  For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG.  In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football.  While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion.  A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story.  Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0.  With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0.  He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game.  They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games.  They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play.  This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check.  As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year.  The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush.  Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points.  We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well.  We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point.  Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year.  The Bears win and cover this one. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week.  Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home.  The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle.  Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West.  These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT.  Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road?  We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday.  Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone.  Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin.  This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year.  For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore.  That puts this number into perspective.  The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011.  They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT.  We’ll take the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Arizona Coyotes over Dallas Stars, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET

The Stars are off a big win over the Avalanche last night in the shootout.  The Coyotes lost at Vegas last night 4-1.  That sets this one up perfectly for a play on Arizona.  The Coyotes are back at home off a loss while the Stars are back on the road after an emotional home win over a Colorado team that is among the best in the NHL this season.  The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and, per the simulation report, that streak will reach 4-0 with another win by the host here.  The Coyotes have outshot the Stars in each of the last 3 games between these clubs.  The Stars had lost 4 of 6 prior to last night's win.  The Coyotes loss to the Golden Knights last night was the first time they have lost back to back games this month!  Dallas has lost 15 of 19 Sunday games including all 4 this season!  The Coyotes are a perfect 7-0 this season when off a loss by a multiple goal margin.  Bet Arizona in NHL evening action Sunday

ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 229 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET – If you followed our NBA pick yesterday, we had the Pelicans over the Pacers which worked out well with New Orleans winning 120-98. The Pelicans have won four of their last five with impressive wins over Indiana, Denver, Portland and Minnesota. The reason they’ve been successful is their defense has stepped up dramatically in their last five games. On the season the Pels allow an average of 117PPG and 1.121 points per possession but in their last five games they are giving up just 99.4PPG (1st in NBA) and .994 points per possession (2nd). On the offensive end of the floor the Pelicans have scored 107 or less points in 4 of their last six games and rank 19th in overall offensive efficiency. Houston is one of the highest scoring teams in the league but recently their offense has stalled with 113 or less points in three straight games. The Rockets and their opponents have totaled less than 229 points in 5 of their last six games so they’ve struggled offensively and been better defensively. Pelicans are on a 4-0 Under streak as a dog, Houston on an Under run of 5-1 when tabbed a favorite. The play here is UNDER.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +4 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Many will be jumping on Philly here because they have to win to clinch the NFC East title.  Please keep in mind that many teams that have to win, don’t win.  We give the Giants a good shot at the upset here.  The Eagles beat Dallas last week but let’s face it, they were not playing well coming into that game.  In their previous 3 games before facing off with Dallas, they lost to Miami, beat this NYG team in OT, and scored with under 30 seconds left to beat Washington.  Not overly impressive.  As we mentioned these two met a few weeks ago in what was a very important game for the Eagles and the Giants led 17-3 at half but lost in OT.  That was with immobile Eli Manning at QB for NY and now with Jones back at QB we feel the Giants have a better chance in this one.  Jones returned last week from injury and threw for 352 yards and 5 TD’s while also giving them a running threat from that position.  He’ll also get help from now healthy RB Barkley who had 189 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards last week.  The Giants offense has now put up 400+ and 500+ yards in each of their last two games, both wins.  NY has been competitive with 5 of their last 7 losses coming by a TD or less and they have some momentum coming into their home finale off back to back wins.  Philly 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and we’re not sure we can even count cover @ Washington as it took 2 TD’s in final 30 seconds (defensive TD included) to get that lucky cover.  How much does Philly have left in the tank after 3 straight down to the wire division games including a must win last week vs Dallas?  NY will come to play here as they’d like nothing more than to knock Philly from the NFC East top spot.  Close game and we’ll take the points

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +3 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Browns have obviously been a huge disappointment this season.  We could see them mailing it in this week in their season finale @ Cincy.  They had a big game last week at home vs Baltimore, their last hurrah so to speak, and lost 31-15.  With a team that lacks character like Cleveland and with nothing to play for, we anticipate a poor effort here.  On the other side, while the Bengals have only 1 win on the season, they’ve been much better since inserting Andy Dalton back at QB a month ago.  Unlike Cleveland, the Bengals are also showing some fight as witnessed in last week’s game @ Miami where they trailed 35-12 in the fourth quarter and battled back to send the game into OT where they lost by a FG.  In their home finale, we have no doubt this team wants to up their 1 win and go out on a positive note.  They’ve also already locked up the #1 pick in next year’s draft so no taking for Cincy here.  These two just met in Cleveland 3 weeks ago and the Browns won that game 27-19.  It was a misleading final however as Cincinnati outgained the Browns by 120 yards but gave up a 61-yard pick 6 which turned out to be the difference.  The Bengals were +10 in first downs in that first meeting and controlled the ground game in that loss with 179 yards rushing.  They tallied 451 total yards and after last week’s performance they have topped 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games.  The Browns have also been a money burner as a road favorite at 1-3 ATS & SU this year and 1-5-1 ATS in that role since 2012.  We like Cincinnati to win this game so we’ll take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one!

#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number.