Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-11-21 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Cleveland Indians vs Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – This line opened at a 9 and moved to a 9.5 in early market activity and this was likely due to favorable winds expected for this one this evening. While the winds will be blowing out at a decent clip for this one, batters still not only have to put the ball in play but also make solid contact to take advantage of that and this is likely to be an issue this evening. Both these starting pitchers have been in excellent form and are also tallying up plenty of strikeouts. The A's Frankie Montas has a 2.84 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. The under has cashed in all three of his last three starts against the Indians and Montas has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians have Cal Quantrill on the mound here and he opposed Montas in a 3-2 Cleveland win right after the All Star break. He has been red hot since then too with a 0.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has struck out 21 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. Quantrill takes on an A's team that has been held to 4 or less runs in 4 of last 5 road games including last night's extra-inning Oakland win. The Indians face Montas who has been particularly dominant on the road of late with a total of only 6 earned runs allowed in his last 4 away starts. Also, Montas has struck out double digits in each of his last 3 starts in enemy ballparks! Last but certainly not least, these are two of the best bullpens in the American League. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 7 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Wednesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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08-10-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – Earlier this season the White Sox were pounding lefty starters. Now they have cooled off against southpaws but are crushing the ball in games against right-handed starters and that continued in yesterday's big 11-1 win. Chicago has won 7 of last 8 against right-handed starters and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those contests. Now they face Griffin Jax and this will be the first time this season that the rookie right-hander has made a second start against a team. It also is his first ever home start at the MLB level. Jax has a 7.27 ERA in his 3 long-relief home appearances out of the bullpen this season so this may not go well for him for multiple reasons including the pressure of opening up a game on the mound at Target Field for the first time ever. The White Sox could jump on him early as they stay hot at the plate. They are likely to need the runs here as the Twins should enjoy success against Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel. The Twins have seen only 3 of their last dozen games result in an under. A trio of starters were rested for yesterday's match-up with Lucas Giolito and, predictably, Minnesota faltered at the plate. Those guys should be back tonight and facing a fading Keuchel. He is off a solid home start but it was against a bad Royals team who had just hammered him recently for 3 homers when the teams met in KC. That was followed by a start hosting the Indians in which Keuchel also allowed 3 homers. He has an ERA north of 5.00 since the All Star break and has a history of being much more hittable on the road and that trend has resumed this season. The White Sox bullpen has been respectable this season but likely will be expected to do too much here if Keuchel struggles as expected. The Twins bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in MLB this season. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-08-21 | Royals v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET – The Royals have been trending under for many weeks now. However, if there was a perfect spot for Kansas City to snap that trending in a strong way this might very well be it. The Cardinals are sending Jon Lester to the mound. The veteran lefty has made only one start since coming to the Cards from the Nats but it looked very much like his recent starts with the Nationals. The fact is that Lester is in a major slump right now and can't seem to break his rough patch of poor form. The odds are heavily stacked against a strong start from Lester here as he has been roughed up in 6 of his last 7 outings. The one start was impressive but the other 6 had a cumulative line of 26 earned runs charged to Lester in 23 and a third innings. He is not just getting hit a little, Lester has been getting rocked. The Royals start Kris Bubic here. The Kansas City left-hander has just one win in five road starts this season and all but one of them went over the total. Bubic has a 7.30 ERA in those 5 road starts and another rough one is likely here. St Louis will take advantage of Bubic pitching to hard contact as the lefty has given up 13 homers in those 5 road starts. Being homer prone has also been an issue for Lester as he has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. The Cardinals have averaged scoring 6 runs a game in their last 6 victories and are a big favorite here for a reason. Look for St Louis to get to at least that number today but the Royals are going to give Lester issues as well and that is why this one gets into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-07-21 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET – It might seem hard to believe given their poor overall record on the season but the Orioles have the highest slugging percentage in the majors against left-handed pitching this season. Here the Orioles will be getting a second shot at southpaw Shane McClanahan after just facing him a couple weeks ago. McClanahan is having a solid rookie campaign but now faces a Baltimore team that pounded out fifteen hits in yesterday's loss. The teams combined for 29 hits in that one as the Rays bats were also hot. The strong hitting should continue today as Baltimore tends to hit well at home and McClanahan has a 1.50 WHIP in his last two starts and those were at home. He is 0-3 in his 7 road starts this season and though he has pitched decent in those, the Orioles lineup getting another quick look at him, and this time at home, will benefit them. The same holds true for the TB lineup and getting another shot at Spenser Watkins. The Baltimore rookie just faced the Rays a couple weeks ago and he had a solid start there but now Tampa Bay gets another look and this tends to go rough on rookie pitchers in the rematch. Also, Watkins enters this one in a bit of tougher form as he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts and that was even with those totaling less than ten innings on the hill. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Watkins' home starts this season and we look for that trend to continue in a big way here. Rays have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 8 games - a 6-2 stretch for Tampa Bay. Orioles have averaged 5.4 runs last 5 home games but their problem is on the mound. Baltimore has now allowed double digits in runs in 3 straight games overall. Also, the Orioles have allowed 7 or more runs in 3 straight home games. Of course all 3 went over the total and this one lines up well to keep that trend going. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We’ve hit the fade button on bad road teams like Colorado/Arizona/Texas/KC/Pittsburgh with a number of our picks this season and with solid success overall. We’ll pull the trigger again on Friday night and side with the San Diego Padres on the run line. Arizona has lost 5 of its last 6 games overall and the Diamondbacks are 13-41 in road games on the season. 54 of Arizona's 76 losses this season have come by 2+ runs. 47 of San Diego's 62 wins have come by 2+ runs. The Padres are 20-9 against lefties this year. Tonight San Diego's lineup - still potent even with Tatis on the shelf - will face a southpaw that has struggled on the road this season. Caleb Smith has a 9.00 ERA and an 0-5 record in his 5 road starts this season. With plenty of run support, San Diego left-hander Ryan Weathers should notch a dominant home win here. Weathers is off a rare bad outing and now should come right back with a strong one in this bounce back start as he faces a Diamondbacks team that is 6-21 against southpaw starters this season. The Padres have been up and down of late but they are 36-22 at home this season and the much better team in this match-up plus in a bounce back spot after a rare blown save led to a loss in their most recent games. Adding to the value here the home team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take San Diego Padres -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – Cleveland's rally fell short last night yet it was still a big game at the plate for them as they ended up with 6 runs on 15 hits in the game. The Indians have an O/U mark in their games of 5-2 last 7. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game which has helped lead the way to a 6-1 record over their past 7 games. This looks like an ideal spot for the bats to keep it going at the plate. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is winless with an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Indians are 2-6 in McKenzie's road starts this season as the right-hander has not helped matters with a 6.75 ERA in these outings. The Blue Jays counter with Ross Stripling here and he has struggled since the All Star Break with a 7.60 ERA in his three starts. The Indians did see Stripling earlier this season so that is an edge for the hitters too as they are likely to fare better in the 2nd go round with the way his current form has been. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-04-21 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET – Yesterday the Braves jumped on Jon Lester for 6 runs in the first two innings and then incredibly not another run was scored in the game until the bottom of the 9th. Though the game stayed under as a result, look for tonight's to make up for it as both starting pitchers are likely to get tagged. JA Happ gets his first start for the Cardinals and it is unlikely the change of scenery to St Louis will be a miracle cure for the lefty. Happ just has not had it this season. He has a 6.77 ERA on the season and an 11.25 ERA his last 3 starts overall. The over is 13-6 in his 19 starts this season. Happ has a WHIP over 2.00 in his last 3 starts. The Braves also have a struggling hurler getting the call in this one. Drew Smyly only gave up 3 earned runs but 9 hits in just four innings in his most recent start. The over is 9-2 in his 11 road starts this season. Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in 4 of last 5 games. The Cardinals had averaged 5 runs last 6 games before being shut down last night. The bats should wake up tonight. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-03-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this one sets up well to be a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Toronto into the pick (-105/-110) range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu has been dominant with a 1.62 ERA over his last 4 starts. Now he finally gets a start at Rogers Centre in Toronto as, remember, the Blue Jays home games have just now resumed being played north of the border again. Toronto had won each of their first 3 games of this homestand before falling short in extra innings yesterday. With Ryu in top form and with the Jays having had won 4 straight games by a combined score of 28 to 6, the forecast is a rout in this one. The Indians Zach Plesac just has not been the same since he returned from injury and has allowed 15 hits in 11 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. Plesac's strikeout numbers are down and he has allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts while Ryu has not allowed a home run in any of his last 4 starts. Cleveland was enduring a stretch of 18 losses in 27 games prior to getting the win in extra innings yesterday. 36 of 51 Indians losses by more than a single run margin this season. An incredible 89% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2 or more runs this season as 48 of their 54 wins have been by 2+ runs. So with a Jays win likely, you can also see the odds are in your favor that a big win is likely as well! The Blue Jays last 18 wins have all come by a multi-run margin with an incredible average winning margin of 6.2 runs. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line early Tuesday evening. |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET – The Rays Michael Wacha got hammered by the Mariners earlier this season. Wacha is off a good start versus the Yankees but he entered that outing having served up 8 homers over his last 4 appearances. Now he faces a Seattle team that hit him hard in June and, though off a low-scoring loss yesterday, had been rolling. Before the 4-3 loss yesterday, the Mariners had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Rays bats also had been hot before a lackluster showing in yesterday's 3-2 win over the Red Sox. TB has won 9 of 12 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs in these dozen games. Tampa Bay will take advantage of facing a pitcher who is finally regressing to the mean. Chris Flexen has good numbers this season for the Mariners but he was getting better results than he deserved overall based on metrics. The over is 7-0 in his road starts this season and he is off back to back losses in which his strikeouts continue too low and he was hit hard and allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings! The over is 3-0 the last 3 games between these teams when meeting in Tampa Bay. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this is a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Los Angeles into a manageable range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Los Angeles delivered an 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Dodgers are now 29-12 in last 41 games against Arizona including 10-2 this season. This is a match-up of left-handers and the Diamondbacks are 6-19 in games against left-handed starters and the Dodgers are 19-11 in games against left-handed starters this season. Julio Urias starts for LA and is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his 3 starts against Arizona. Urias is 12-3 this season including 9-2 in road starts. Caleb Smith starts for Arizona and got crushed by the Dodgers 3 starts ago and allowed 3 homers in an ugly outing. Smith also enters this outing off another start (against the Cubs) in which he allowed 3 more homers! Arizona is 2-9 in his starts this season and the lefty has a 5.67 ERA on the year. The Dodgers last 6 wins over the Diamondbacks have come by a combined score of 58 to 19. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
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07-31-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET – Yesterday's game continued a trend of high-scoring games between these clubs as it was over the total by the 5th inning. The over is 6-1 in the 7 games between these teams this season. Not only that, going further back it is a 24-11-1 run to the over in the last 36 games. These rivals meet and the scoreboard lights up and we expect more of the same today. The Rays Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.31 ERA at home this season and the over is 10-5 in his 15 starts this year. In his last 3 starts against the Red Sox - all within the past 12 months - Yarbrough has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 and 1 / 3 innings. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts at Tampa Bay. Eovaldi's last road start was a good one against a depleted Yankees lineup two weeks ago. However, prior to this, Eovaldi had allowed 8 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over two most recent road starts. Tampa Bay is 7-3 last 10 games and has averaged 6.4 runs per game in this stretch. The Rays lineup stays hot here. The Red Sox scored only 3 runs in defeat yesterday but entered the game on a 7-2 run with an average of 6.4 runs scored by Boston in the 7 wins. This total is in the 8 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – In theory, the White Sox should be able to hit Jean Carlos Mejia but Chicago just has not been hitting at all lately plus Mejia has a solid K:BB ratio and this is his first ever start against the Sox. In other words, advantage goes to the pitcher and this is particularly true when you consider that the White Sox have lost 6 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2.1 runs in those 8 games! As for the Indians bats, the likelihood here is plenty of struggles as Chicago's Lance Lynn continues to dominate. The veteran simply has phenomenal numbers and has been so consistent. Lynn has allowed only 1 earned run in each of his last 3 starts. Also, he is 10-3 with a 1.91 ERA this season. The White Sox, in Lynn's home starts, have had only one over in 11 games! 8 unders, 2 pushes, 1 over in the 11 home starts for Lynn! Each of Mejia's last 2 starts have been games for Cleveland that remained under the total. Mejia's high ERA is hiding the fact that he has recently been burned by some mistake pitches but pitching better than the overall numbers show. Again, he has a great strikeout to walk ratio and, right now, this struggling White Sox lineup does not seem to know how to even handle "mistake pitches". Look for this one to be a tight game with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET – The Dodgers Price has some good recent stats but he faced a Rockies team that ranks in the lower half of the majors for slugging percentage this season and that is despite playing their home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Giants Cueto, in his last two starts, also has faced weaker lineups - Cardinals and Pirates - that rank 10th and 15th in NL (out of 15 teams!) in slugging percentage. Now this match-up for these hurlers involves the #1 NL ranked slugging percentage team in the Giants and the #3 ranked team in the Dodgers. Cueto struggled last season against the Dodgers and Price will be facing a tall task here with facing a solid Giants lineup off an 8-0 loss yesterday. The Dodgers lineup really came to life yesterday and showed, even with Mookie Betts out, this team is still very dangerous at the plate. The Giants had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the 5 victories before yesterday's shutout loss to a dominating Walker Buehler. Though Price has been solid, this will be his toughest test since coming back into the rotation and he is still trying to get stretched out in terms of working deeper into games. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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07-27-21 | Brewers -132 v. Pirates | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -130 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Pirates have lost 5 of 7 games and are 7-18 against left-handed starters and have gone 11-26 in divisional games this season. Pittsburgh also just returned from a West Coast road trip. Both these teams were off yesterday and now today's match-up is a battle of southpaws as the Brewers come to town. Milwaukee is off a loss but had won 5 of 7 games prior to that defeat and the Brewers are 29-18 on the road and 27-17 in divisional games this season. Brett Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his career against Pittsburgh and he is backed by a solid bullpen. The Brewers bullpen has been the best in baseball recently too. Last 7 days, last 15 days, last 30 days all find the Brewers at the top with the lowest bullpen ERA. The Pirates have been near the very bottom during all those time frames with one of the highest bullpen ERA's in the league. This sets up to be a mismatch in the later innings. Pittsburgh starter Tyler Anderson was solid against Milwaukee early this month but he entered that start 1-4 in his career against the Brewers. In his two starts since that July 4th outing, he has allowed 13 hits in 11 innings. The Pirates won that most recent meeting (July 4th) between these teams but that victory followed 6 straight dominating Brewers wins in this series by an average score of 7 to 3 (combined margin was 44 to 16). Our computer math model reflects a similar result this time and we could not agree more! We will grab the road team with the massive bullpen edge and overall team edges at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Milwaukee Brewers -130 |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Both teams are off low-scoring results yesterday as the Twins lost 6-2 and the Tigers lost 6-1. Detroit entered that game averaging 6.5 runs as the Tigers had scored 52 runs in 8 games before yesterday's loss. Minnesota is 4-0 in home games against the Tigers this season and has scored an average of 7.5 runs in those 4 games. Even including a decent start for Matt Manning in his last road outing (coincidentally it was at Minnesota), the right-hander is 0-3 in road starts this season with an 8.56 ERA. Michael Pineda starts for the Twins here. The right-hander has respectable season numbers but he has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in 9 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two home starts. Detroit had been scoring very well prior to yesterday and the bats should get rolling again here based on Pineda's recent home struggles. The Twins bats will resume their home success against the Tigers in their 2nd shot at him as they just faced him on July 9th. Manning had more success than anticipated in that one and his road struggles resume here as Minnesota takes advantage of a 2nd shot at him. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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07-25-21 | White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
#979/980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET – Brandon Woodruff has seen the O/U go 6-12 in his starts this season. Lance Lynn has seen the O/U go 5-10 in his starts this season. Woodruff has a 2.04 ERA and 0.83 WHIP on the year. The White Sox do not hit righties as well as lefties and also Woodruff has only made one start against them in his career so that is an edge for the pitcher as well. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA this season and enters this start in fine current form with a 1.42 ERA his last 3 starts. His last start against Milwaukee was 4 years ago so the Brewers certainly lack experience against him, so just like Woodruff, the edge goes to the pitcher over the hitters. Some recent over trending for each of these clubs helped move the total from a 7 to a 7.5 but that move helped give some more value to this play and the Brewers entered this series having scored only 1.8 runs over 5 most recent home games. Milwaukee has scored better in this series but has only averaged 7 hits per game in the first two games! Chicago has scored only 4 runs in its last 3 games! Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-24-21 | Rays -143 v. Indians | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
We recommend making this bet with ACTION on the pitchers in this one. Details as to why included here in the analysis: #917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -145 over Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Rays are going with a bullpen game so their starting pitcher may vary here but it is likely to be Drew Rasmussen. Originally Ryan Yarbrough was expected to make this start. With it setting up to be a bullpen game using a number of relievers (Rays historically very successful with this approach) we are not concerned with who makes the start. Also, with the Rays having won 11 of last 12 games against the Indians we also are choosing action on the Cleveland pitcher. It is expected to be Jean Carlos Mejia but regardless we are fading a Cleveland team that has lost all 5 games against Tampa Bay this season and 11 of last 12 overall against the Rays. Overall, the Rays have been the much hotter team as they have won 12 of 15 games since early July. The Indians have lost 15 of 22 games since late June. If Mejia does get the start, likely for Cleveland, he has a 7.53 ERA on the season and has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 outings. He is 0-5 in all his decisions since June 9th. We will grab the road team at, considering the long-term series edges, a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Tampa Bay Rays -145 |
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07-23-21 | Nationals v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – Washington has had only 1 under in the 7 games they have played since the All Star break. The Orioles have trended over with 10 of 12 games over the total the past two weeks. Besides the team trends here, this pitching match-up also looks great for a high-scoring game. Pat Corbin starts for the Nationals and he has a 7.31 ERA his last 3 starts and has been consistently rocked with 25 hits in 16 innings during this stretch. Corbin also walked 4 in his most recent start. The Nationals lefty has allowed 9 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts against the Orioles and that includes one this season. The Washington lineup also has already seen Baltimore's Jorge Lopez this season. The Orioles right-hander allowed 7 hits in just 5 innings in that start and, like Corbin, he also enters this start in poor current form. Lopez has a 6.75 ERA last 3 starts and has given up 22 hits in 13 and 1 / 3 innings! Washington has averaged 7.5 runs last 6 games. Baltimore has averaged 5.2 runs last 5 games. As for the bullpens this season the Nationals ERA ranks 19th and the Orioles ERA ranks 26th in the league. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of at least a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET – The most recent game between these teams went over the total and then they each had separate 2-game sets in which both games went over the total and now these bitter rivals meet again. Yankees confidence is growing with 4 straight wins plus New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in the last 3 victories. The Red Sox love hitting at home and enter this game swinging hot bats with 20 runs scored in their 2-game set with the Blue Jays. Boston will hit Jordan Montgomery better than they did in the Bronx. Montgomery held them to 3 earned runs in that one but now is on the road where he has a 5.32 ERA this season. Last season he was winless in his 4 road starts with a 7.27 ERA so this is nothing new for Montgomery. He has proven to struggle away from the Bronx. Fenway Park is not an easy place to pitch and Red Sox righty Tanner Houck has struggled in his limited action here thus far. Houck has allowed 14 hits in his 10 and 1 / 3 innings and certainly could be carrying much higher than the 4.35 ERA he has at Fenway Park this season. With the Yankees bats hot, this will be a tough start for Houck. The Red Sox bats will give Montgomery trouble too as he has a 5.91 ERA in his last 2 starts at Fenway Park. Boston averaged 6 runs a game in winning the first 7 meetings between these teams this season. Now the Yankees have taken 2 straight between the teams and are a confident group right now but Boston is tough at home and will resume the hot hitting that helped lead the way to a 7-0 run in games between these teams to start the season series. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-21-21 | Indians v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -120 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros got their bats going again in a big way in yesterday's 9-3 win. Houston is now 31-19 at home and 42-23 in night games this season. Cleveland, on the other hand, is barely above .500 on the season. Also, the Indians have lost 14 of 20 games. Cleveland sends a struggling Eli Morgan to the mound for this one. Morgan has a 7.86 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 6 starts in what is his rookie season. He has also allowed a homer in each of his starts including 2 homers in 3 of the 6 outings. Of course the Indians overall struggles and Morgan's struggles are a big reason Houston is a big money line favorite in this match-up. The value can be had on the run line here with -1.5 on the Astros available at about a -120 range as of early morning Wednesday. Houston holds big edges here in terms of team factors as well as starting pitching. The Astros Lance McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this season and has been a model of consistency with 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in all but 3 of his 15 starts on the year and in 2 of those 3 outliers he only allowed 3 earned runs in each. McCullers has 26 strikeouts in 17 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts. While Cleveland has only 6 wins the last 20 games, the Astros have only 5 losses last 15 games! Two teams going opposite directions in recent weeks and Houston is going for its 7th straight win over Cleveland in 2021. 32 of the Indians 45 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. 46 of the Astros 58 wins have been by 2+ runs this season. This games has blowout potential written all over it and our math model reflects a comfortable win for the home team here. Morgan again gets hit hard while McCullers season-long domination continues. We’ll back the Houston Astros on the run line Wednesday evening. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 5 results have pushed this Total to the highest it’s been in the entire series so we will bet the added value and Under. These two teams shot ridiculously well in Game 5 as both team hit over 55% of their field goal attempts. Those numbers are much higher than league average of 46.6% and are not sustainable, especially in this elimination game setting. The pace of play numbers have been consistent the last two games with 175 and 174 field goal attempts which is slightly lower than league average. These two combined for 98-points in the paint in Game 5 which is also well above the league standards so don’t expect that to happen again here. In this pressure packed game both teams are going to value every possession and our computers suggest a much slower pace in Game 6. The Under is now 6-3 the last nine meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee and that trend continues here. BET UNDER! |
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07-20-21 | Phillies -125 v. Yankees | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -125 over New York Yankees, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - After back to back wins over their biggest rivals the Yankees could be flat here. The Red Sox had their number all season long and New York finally got some payback in the last two games. Overall, before these back to back wins, the Yankees were on an 18-25 run so their overall season continues to be disappointing. As for the road team in this one, the Phillies have been showing some positive signs for quite some time now. Philadelphia has won 10 of 14 games and also has a decided pitching edge on the mound in this one. Aaron Nola has dominated the Yankees with an 0.66 ERA and 21 strikeouts in less than 14 innings spanning his two starts against them and both of those outings have been in the past 12 months. Nola enters this outing with 31 strikeouts in 15 innings over his last 3 starts. Nola has had a few rough starts this season and that is why he does have his typical dominating low ERA numbers. However, the Yankees are one of the highest strikeout teams in the American League and Nola will prove for the 3rd straight time that this is not a good match-up for the New York lineup. As for Yankees starter Domingo German, he is having a rough season and went winless with a 7.27 ERA in his 6 starts in June. Working out of the bullpen in July, he has a 7.50 ERA in 3 appearances so far. He was matched up with Nola last month and German got crushed for 7 earned runs on 10 hits while the Phillies right-hander dominated. Our computer math model reflects a similar result this time and we could not agree more! We will grab the road team with the massive pitching edge on the mound at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Philadelphia Phillies -125 |
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07-19-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Baltimore, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Orioles are off of back to back wins but that had a lot to do with playing one of the worst teams in the American League. After facing Kansas City, now the Orioles are facing one of the majors' best teams in Tampa Bay. Prior to the back to back wins, the Orioles had lost 46 of 59 games. It has been another very rough season for Baltimore and now they face the Rays at Tampa Bay where the home team has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings. As for all the meetings this season, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 and 5 of the 6 wins were by a multi-run margin. The Orioles are starting Spenser Watkins and the rookie hurler has as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts this season. He has managed to escape major damage but now makes his first ever road start. Watkins faces a Rays team that has won 35 of 54 games and 43 of their 55 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Ryan Yarbrough has an edge on the hill as the Rays are 4-1 in his 5 career starts against the Orioles. He compiled a 3.07 ERA in those starts and enters this start with a 2.81 ERA over his last 3 starts so he is in good current form. The Rays, overall, have won 8 of last 10 games and have scored 6.5 runs a game in the 8 victories! Blowout could be likely here because the Orioles have a knack for losing big. 48 of Baltimore’s 62 losses, including 15 of last 17, have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Tampa Bay 1st in AL and Baltimore 2nd to last in AL) as well, we’ll back the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line early Monday evening. |
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07-18-21 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET – Yesterday's game finished a 3-1 Cardinals win but 7 of 11 meetings heading into yesterday were games that went over the total. The pitching match-up today should get the bats going again in this one. Johnny Cueto has had a lackluster season overall and the veteran right-hander has particularly had it rough on the road this season for the Giants. Cueto has a 5.64 ERA in road starts and only 2 of the 6 outings resulted in an under. He faced the Cardinals right before the break and they got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings on the mound. Seeing the Cardinals again and this time at St Louis will likely mean even more struggles for Cueto. The St Louis starter in this one is Wade LeBlanc. He struggled badly in his final start before the break and now has 6 walks and just 4 strikeouts over his last 2 outings. LeBlanc had a horrible April with the Orioles. Then, after coming to the Cardinals, the southpaw showed some early success but reality is quickly setting in and we will not hesitate to fade him here before the markets make an adjustment on him. San Francisco, before yesterday's loss, had won 5 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. St Louis, prior to yesterday, had scored 5 or more runs in 4 of 6 games! The bats come back to life this afternoon for both clubs and plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team. |
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07-17-21 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – Brandon Woodruff will be making his 10th road start of the season for the Brewers. Of the first 9 there was one push on the total, zero overs, and 8 unders! Woodruff has a 1.99 ERA and unreal 0.68 WHIP in his road starts this year. This game sets up to be another low-scoring duel with Luis Castillo of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander had some rough patches earlier this season but since then he has been lights out. Castillo had a 1.71 ERA in June and held opponents to a .173 batting average. So far in July he has a 2.41 ERA and has held opponents to a .169 batting average. After a very rough May, Castillo has been the strong pitcher we are used to seeing on the mound. Yesterday's high-scoring game and Castillo's ugly full season numbers are part of the reason this total moved to an 8 after opening at 7.5 runs. We are going to take advantage of the added value as these teams had gone under in 6 straight prior to yesterday's rare slugfest between the clubs. Both teams had been trending under all month long before yesterday's unusual result and now look for a strong start from these two hurlers and while the Reds do not have a strong bullpen like the Brewers do, Castillo is fully capable of going 7 innings here. That minimizes the Cincy bullpen usage. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Saturday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-16-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs (-130) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Mariners lost to the Angels Sunday in their final game before the all star break. This snapped a stretch of 3 straight wins for Seattle over LA plus a run of 5-2 last 7 meetings. One of those was a 1-run loss so having the Mariners at +1.5 runs in those 7 meetings would have netted one a tidy 6-1 record. This spot Friday looks like a great one for that run to be extended. Though an upset win is certainly possible here, having the extra 1.5 runs could prove to be a key. 3 of the Angels 5 most recent victories, prior to Sunday's big 7-1 win, had been by a 1-run margin. Chis Flexen continues to be a pleasant surprise on the mound for the Mariners. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, Flexen continues to successfully pitch to contact and induce outs by avoiding hard contact. Seattle is 12-4 in Flexen's starts this season and he has an 8-3 record! In his past 5 starts he has a 1.38 ERA and allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of the 5 starts. Flexen has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. Andrew Heaney starts for the Angels in this one. The southpaw allowed 3 homers at Seattle earlier this season. Heaney enters this start having surrendered 5 long balls in his last 3 outings and has a 9.42 ERA during this stretch. This is a strikeout mismatch as Heaney has been piling up strikeouts lately while Flexen is not. However, it is crystal clear who has been getting the better results and that continues here. Also, Trout still out for the Angels and even if Rendon and Upton come back for this game it would be hard to say either is 100% healthy at this point as each were out for for a while prior to the all star break. Bet the Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET Game 4 - We like UNDER again in Game 4 and expect a lower scoring game when these two teams take the floor Wednesday night. We’ve seen a steady decline the scoring in the three games thus far as they scored 223 and 226 total points in the first two games then 220 in Game 3. Most importantly we’ve seen a decline in field goal attempts and a slower pace. In Game 1 these two attempted 176 combined shots, in Game 2 it was 181 then in Game 3 it was the lowest number yet with 173 field goal attempts. As this series goes on we expect the pressure to grow and less shots to go in. Both teams shot 48% in Game 3 but that percentage isn’t sustainable given both teams defenses. Both teams have been outstanding defensively in the playoffs allowing just 1.090-points per possession (Suns) and 1.071PPP (Bucks). Those numbers are drastically better than the season PPP they allowed during the regular season. Suns are 4-1 Under their last five coming off a loss, while the Bucks are 7-3-1 Under their last eleven home games. With more money and tickets coming in on the Over the line has not fluctuated and even ticked down a little. That’s an indication to bet UNDER! |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222 Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks, Game 3 Sunday - The first two games crept Over the number but we expect a lower scoring game here. In fact, we lost our play on the Under in Game 2 but we had a great opportunity to win as a few meaningless fouls late pushed it Over the number. Both teams have shot relatively well in both games and the Suns were ridiculously hot in Game 2 from beyond the arc making 20 3-pointers. We do expect the Bucks to shoot better at home but not well enough to push this game Over the number. Giannis shredded the Suns on the interior last game with 42-points but that number isn’t sustainable either. These two teams have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the Playoffs allowing just 1.073PPP (Bucks) and 1.081PPP (Suns). Those numbers are dramatically lower than the season averages both allowed during the regular season. Milwaukee is playing significantly slower in the post-season than they did in the regular season with 5-less possessions per game in the Playoffs. The Suns were the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season and are averaging that same pace in the Playoffs. Phoenix played a couple deliberate or slower paced games on the road against the Clippers which resulted with 164 and 198 total points. With both of the games thus far going Over the number it’s strange the oddsmakers didn’t set this number higher than this which means they want us to bet Over. We won’t bite and like UNDER. |
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07-11-21 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – The White Sox bats have been red hot in this series but the Orioles bats should fare much better against Dylan Cease then they have against the other starters so far in this series. The White Sox right-hander had a solid start against the Orioles in late May. However, Cease is coming off a rough outing at Minnesota and has a 6.59 ERA in road starts this season. Cease has allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 6 road starts. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season. The White Sox bats should most definitely have another big day today. Chicago will be facing the Orioles Spenser Watkins. The Baltimore right-hander had a successful MLB debut versus the Blue Jays in his last start. However, he had more walks than strikeouts and also had only 8 swings and misses in the game. In other words, Watkins pitched to contact and was quite fortunate in that first start. In 2018, Watkins had a 5.11 ERA in his 5 starts above the single A level of the minors. Since then, at the AAA level, Watkins has a 6.67 ERA and in his last full season at the AAA level (2019), Watkins had a .326 BAA so he has a tendency to be very hittable! The ball is being put in play against Watkins and this White Sox lineup pounded the Orioles for 20 runs in the first two games of this series! O/U was 8-0 run in White Sox games before back to back unders preceded back to back overs in this series. The bats come alive again this afternoon and the Orioles get in on it with the big hits this time too. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 10.5 range (after opening up at an 11 and we will gladly take the added value) and our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-10-21 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA PLAY ON Over 10 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – We successfully cashed the over in this match-up yesterday and are coming right back with it again today. The difference today is we expect both teams to get in on the big action at the plate. Baltimore, off a 12-1 loss yesterday, should fare much better against Lucas Giolito. The White Sox right-hander had a solid start against the Orioles in late May. However, Giolito is coming off a rough outing at Detroit and has a 5.18 ERA in road starts this season. The last time he started in Baltimore Giolito allowed 6 runs - 4 earned - in 6 innings. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season. The White Sox bats should most definitely have another big day today. Chicago will be facing the Orioles Tom Eshelman. The Baltimore right-hander has a 9.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. Eshelman continues to get hit hard and has trouble missing bats! He has struck out only 2 batters in nearly a dozen innings on the hill over his last three starts. The ball is being put in play against Eshelman and this White Sox lineup pounded the Orioles for 12 runs yesterday! O/U was 8-0 run in White Sox games before back to back unders preceded yesterday's blowout over. The bats come alive again tonight and the Orioles get in on it with the big hits this time too. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-09-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – Jordan Lyles starts for the Rangers and has turned things around in a big way. He has allowed 3 earned runs in 13 innings in winning each of his last two starts. Lyles is also 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his 3 career starts against the A's. Oakland's bats have produced an average of only 3 runs in the last 8 games. The Rangers bats have been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of the last 4 games. Texas will be dealing with a pitcher who is on a tear as they must face Cole Irvin here. The left-hander has allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings over his last two starts and, overall, has led Oakland to wins in each of his last 3 starts! Only 19 of 52 night games for Oakland have been overs this season. Also 11 of 17 Irvin starts this season have been unders and that includes 5 of his 7 road starts. Athletics bullpen has been better on the road than at home and the Rangers bullpen has been better at home than on the road. Both pens have been respectable, if unspectacular, on the season. Also, over the last 15 days the bullpen ERA of these two teams ranks them each in the top 7 in the majors. That being said, the trending is certainly going the right way for both teams. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Thursday 9 PM ET - We got a win with the Over in Game 1 of this series but now we feel these two teams stay Under with a much lower scoring game. These two combined for 223 Total points in Game 1 but it took 45% shooting by the Bucks and 16 of 36 3-point shooting or 44%. The Bucks 3-point shooting was well above their season average of 38.9%. Phoenix also had a hot shooting night by hitting 47% overall from the field and 32% from beyond the Arc. The Suns were also near perfect from the free throw line at 25 of 26. In Game 2 we expect a return to norm for both teams with each team's defenses stepping up. These two teams combined for just 176 field goal attempts in the opener which is around league average but again they had better than normal shooting nights. These two teams are ranked first and second in defensive efficiency in the Playoffs allowing less than 1.080-points per possesion. The betting indicators clearly support the Under here too as more money has flowed in on the Over, yet the line has dipped from 221.5 to 219.5 which tells us volumes. We expect a slightly slower pace, not as good of a shooting night and both defenses to improve from Game 1. The bet here is UNDER! |
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07-08-21 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The Reds have been winning but certainly have not been a powerhouse at the plate recently. Cincinnati has seen the under cash in 11 of 14 games! Despite an overall winning run, Cincinnati had only 1 big game at the plate in those 14 games. Other than that, the Reds scored an average of 3.8 runs per game in the other 13 games. Cincinnati's pitching has been great with only 3.4 runs allowed per game in the last 14 games. This looks like a pitchers duel type of match-up. Adrian Houser did have a couple rough starts recently but he bounced back with a big effort in his last start. Overall, in his last 7 appearances of 5 or more innings he had the two rough starts but allowed a total of only 5 runs in the other 5 games! That included Houser dominating the Reds the last time he faced them. As for Milwaukee's bats, look for them to struggle against Tyler Mahle. The Reds right-hander last faced them on June 16th at Milwaukee and fanned 12 in 6 innings while allowing only 1 run on 3 hits! The Brewers have averaged 2.5 runs during the current 4 game stretch which has seen 3 unders and just 1 over. Mahle is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 10 road starts this season. He is undefeated with a 2.28 ERA and a .199 BAA in his 8 night starts this season. The last two meetings between these teams at Milwaukee were 2-1 games and this looks like another tight one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - The Lightning are on a 13-7 run in the playoffs but 4 of the 13 wins were by just a single goal. That means laying 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay in each of those games would have netted only a 9-11 record. The Canadiens are on a 12-5 run and 1 of the 5 losses was in overtime. That means at +1.5 goals in the last 17 games, Montreal would have a 13-4 record. That is why we're laying the price to have the benefit of having the +1.5 goals on the puck line. While Montreal certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice with a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup tonight. However, if the Canadiens do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -140 price in doing so) with road underdog Montreal is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one! Note that goalie Carey Price was fantastic in the crease in Game 4 to help the Canadiens fight off elimination and also give them momentum heading into this must win game. |
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07-07-21 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels have been without Mike Trout for some time now and also lost Justin Upton to injury June 23rd. Though Anthony Rendon recently got hurt, the Angels continue scoring runs and got 5 runs on 11 hits in last night's victory. Upton could be back today but, even if he is not, Los Angeles has averaged 6 runs per game and gone 7-2 last 9 games without him since June 23rd. In terms of slugging percentage, each of these teams rank in the top 8 out of all 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching this season. Also, the Angels are one of the top slugging teams this season in home games and the Red Sox are one of the top slugging teams in the majors in road games thus far this season. Boston will certainly be happy to face anyone other than Shohei Ohtani who gave them trouble last night. Now the Red Sox take advantage of facing Andrew Heaney. The Angels lefty is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the season Los Angeles is 12-2 to the over in his starts including 6-1 when Heaney is at home. The southpaw has a 6.16 ERA in his career against Boston. The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one and he has a 10.56 ERA in the two career starts he has made at Anaheim. Though he is off a strong start at Oakland, Rodriguez has a 5.56 ERA in his road starts this season and the under in his outing against the A's was just the 3rd in his 11 road starts this season. You can see why the Angels bats should stay hot here. As for the Red Sox bats, Ohtani (known for dominating at home) got the better of them yesterday, but Boston's hot hitting should resume here. The Red Sox had won 10 of 11 before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch! That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 9 to 9.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns OVER 218.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 1 Tuesday 9 PM ET - We are betting this unfamiliar territory for both teams is going to start fast and have some high energy throughout which is going to lead to a faster paced game and higher scoring output. Our computer simulator has played this matchup 10,000 times and the total projections it is producing is 222.3. These two teams were two of the highest points per possession offenses in the NBA ranking 5th and 6th in offensive efficiency. Playoff scoring is down for both teams but that is expected given the circumstances. The value in the number is obvious as these two teams played twice in the regular season and Vegas set Totals of 229 and 232. Thus far in the playoffs the Bucks and their opponents have had a Total of 219 or less just two times out of seventeen games. The Suns had a few low scoring games in their most recent series with the Clippers but even half of those games finished with more points than tonight’s Total and all of their games against Denver resulted in more than 218 total points. The Bucks screen-n-roll defense has been atrocious, and the Suns have been one of the best mid-range or pull-up shooting team in the playoffs. When these same two teams met in the regular season, they combined for 249 and 232 points (in regulation). Both have strong Over support in this scenario, and we see Game 1 ending with a higher total than projected. |
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07-06-21 | Reds v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#979/980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The under is perfect in the last 4 starts Luis Castillo has made. The Reds right-hander may not have his usual full-season numbers you would expect but he is certainly back in top form. Castillo has a 1.71 ERA in his last 4 starts and should dominate this struggling Royals team. Kansas City has lost 11 of 13 games and scored an average of 2.6 runs in the 11 losses. The Reds also have not been a powerhouse at the plate recently. Cincinnati has seen the under cash in 10 of 12 games! Despite an overall winning run, Cincinnati had only 1 big game at the plate in those dozen games. Other than that, the Reds scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in the other 11 games. Cincinnati's pitching has been great with only 3.2 runs allowed per game last dozen games. But this Cincinnati team has struggled to hit lefties this season and rank near the bottom of the majors in categories in terms of hitting southpaws. That is why we expect Kris Bubic to enjoy success. He has endured a very rough stretch on the road but has been a completely different pitcher at home where the Royals have gone 3-0 in his starts, he has allowed only 1 homer, and he has compiled a 2.94 ERA. Look for the 5th under in the last 6 meetings between these teams with a low-scoring battle this evening at Kauffman Stadium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 7 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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07-05-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:10 PM ET - Just like the weather in Minnesota, the bats will be hot on Monday! The O/U is 7-0 last 7 White Sox games and Chicago averaging 7.4 runs a game during this hot streak at the plate. The Twins off consecutive unders but the games did combine for 17 runs and the O/U was on 8-1 run in Minnesota's 9 games before these two most recent games barely stayed under the total. The O/U is 5-2-1 in Dylan Cease's 8 road starts this season. The White Sox hurler has a 6.08 ERA away from home on the year. The Twins O/U is 3-0 in Bailey Ober's last 3 starts and he has a 5.84 ERA in his 6 starts this season. The White Sox bats have been hot as we mentioned above and the Twins have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of last 5 home games. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-04-21 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM ET - The Orioles are facing a lefty today as Patrick Sandoval gets the start for the Angels. Baltimore is 2nd in the majors in both batting average (.276) and slugging percentage (.444) against southpaws this season! Those are very impressive numbers as only the Houston Astros rank better! Baltimore starts Tom Eshelman here. The Orioles right-hander has a 5.42 ERA in his career and a 6.57 ERA this season. In 83 MLB innings his BAA is .292 so opponents certainly have found him to be quite hittable. The Angels are averaging 6.5 runs per game last 6 games and have won 5 of 6 so they are "in the zone" right now. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 5-1 run in Angels games. The Orioles have not had back to back games stay under the total since mid-June! That is a span of 3 full weeks and that trend looks likely to continue here after yesterday was a rare under. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA top play on 10* OVER 12 St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 9:10 PM ET - Contrarian play here. This truly looks like a big number here because, even at Coors Field, recent games have been falling short of this number. However, this one has a different look to it and should result in plenty of runs scored as we have two pitchers likely to struggle here. Wade LeBlanc is with his 3rd team in 3 years and the southpaw has a 6.02 ERA in these 3 seasons including his limited action this year. He has an 8.68 ERA in his last 2 starts at Coors Field. This is unlikely to go well for him as the Rockies had won 4 straight games prior to yesterday's result and Colorado should pound LeBlanc as they bounce back from letting yesterday's game slip away and then getting blitzed in the top half of the 10th frame. Kyle Freeland starts for Colorado and he has a 6.54 ERA this season. In his 17 home starts from 2019 and 2020 he compiled a 7.11 ERA at Coors Field and has now struggled overall again this season. In two career starts against the Cardinals he has a 1.94 WHIP as he has been hit hard by St Louis. Also, Colorado's bullpen ranks dead last in the majors and the Cardinals bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack at 15th. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 12 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks, Saturday 8:30 PM ET - We are betting the defenses for both teams rise to the occasion and expect both offenses to struggle here. The Bucks put together a masterful performance without Giannis in the last game and got huge offensive contributions from Brook Lopez (14 of 18 shooting) with 33-points and 22-points from Bobby Portis Jr. Based on year long statistics those numbers will be extremely hard to maintain as both players averaged under 13PPG on the season. In fact, both teams shot well in the last game at 46% for the Hawks and 51% for the Bucks. We are betting this game reverts back to the form we saw in the previous two games played in Atlanta which ended with 198 and 215 total points. Atlanta on 4-0 Under run at home, Bucks Under 9-2-1 their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record. Even if both teams get their Superstars back in the lineup tonight, neither will be close to 100%. This potential elimination game will be a tight defensive affair, bet UNDER. |
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07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +119 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+120) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday at 8 PM ET - Montreal did everything but win on Wednesday! The Canadiens had 43 shots on goal compared to just 23 for the Lightning. Also, Tampa Bay was held to 0 for 3 on the power play as Montreal continued its stellar play on the penalty kill which has helped jettison their improbable playoff run to the Stanley Cup Finals. The only power play goal in the game came from the Canadiens and they were truly relentless in 5 on 5 hockey throughout the game as well. That is what led to the huge edge in shots on goal after Montreal got shell-shocked in Game 1 of the series. Yes, the Canadiens are down 2-0 in this series but the series now shifts to Montreal. The Lightning have lost each of their last two road games in this post-season. Also, the stonewall that is otherwise known as TB goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy seems to have the majority of his sub-par efforts on the road. Vasilevskiy was fantastic on home ice this season and certainly still respectable on the road but his goals against average was nearly a full goal higher (2.63 vs 1.75) in road games compared to home games. The fact that Montreal made some solid adjustments and controlled the game in many aspects Wednesday bodes well for what to expect from them tonight on home ice. 6 times in the regular season the Canadiens entered a game on home ice on a losing streak of at least 2 games. They only had one regulation loss in those 6 games. Of course we expect a solid regulation win here as Montreal enters this home game off back to back losses but if this is a tight game that goes to OT, note that the Canadiens have been great in OT (5-1) in this post-season. Carey Price has allowed 2 or less goals in 6 straight home games in this post-season! Per our computer math model, a solid home win in the forecast here with the projections reflecting another dominating effort (won Game 2 except on the scoreboard!) for the Canadiens as they drop the Lightning to 0-3 last 3 road games in this post-season. Bet Montreal Canadiens (+120) |
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07-02-21 | White Sox -146 v. Tigers | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -145 over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Tigers have played better of late but they have really struggled against the White Sox in recent years and this season has been no different. Also, Detroit is 16-25 in divisional games this season while Chicago is 27-12 in AL Central games. The White Sox enter this game winners of 4 straight and they hand the ball to Lance Lynn. He is 7-3 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP this season! Lynn is off of a start Saturday that was shortened to 3 innings due to weather but he looked to be back in top form after some hiccups in recent starts. Facing the Tigers should help him maintain that top form as he has held them to just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 meetings with them while totaling 16 strikeouts in 13 innings. The Tigers are 0-4 in the 4 career starts Casey Mize has made against the White Sox. He allowed 3 homers against them when he matched up with Lynn 4 weeks ago and he was fortunate that they were all solo shots as the damage could have been much worse. The Tigers 5.07 bullpen ERA ranks as the worst in the AL while the White Sox 3.98 bullpen ERA ranks 6th. The White Sox are 29-9 last 38 games (including 8-2 this season) against the Tigers and our computer math model reflects a road blowout is likely here. We will grab the road team with the pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Chicago White Sox -145 |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks. |
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07-01-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Texas Rangers @ Oakland A's, 3:37 PM ET - This play is all about the value. Yesterday's match-up featured two starting pitchers in great current form and yet the total was also 8 just like this one. It stayed under the total easily but now today you have Dane Dunning getting the start for the Rangers. He is 0-4 in his 7 road starts this season with a 7.45 ERA. In 13 innings over his last 3 starts (2 of which were at home where he is normally better) Dunning has allowed 22 hits plus walked 6. Dunning is lucky his ERA has not been even higher than the 6.23 ERA he has over those last 3 starts. His current form is very poor and now he faces an Oakland team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in winning 3 of last 4 against the Rangers. Texas also should enjoy some success at the plate in this one. Prior to being held to just 1 run in yesterday's game the Rangers had scored an average of 6 runs per game in winning 6 of 8 games. So the Texas bats have been better recently and though Oakland's Sean Manaea has some solid numbers again this season, he has given up 18 hits in his last 14 innings over his last 3 starts against the Rangers. Also, in his most recent home start this season, Manaea allowed 9 hits in less than 6 innings. Texas has a .433 slugging percentage against lefties the last 15 days and .447 slugging percentage versus southpaws the last 7 days. Both are very solid figures and the Rangers may surprise some with success against Manaea here while Dunning and a sub-par Texas bullpen should get pounded here. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 8 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6. |
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06-30-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10.5 Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are starting Steven Matz and he is returning from the covid-19 list and has been out for more than 2 weeks so he will be on a pitch count here. Even though the Blue Jays bullpen has been solid this season they could be asked to do a little too much here given the above and the Mariners have been hitting well recently with a slugging percentage ranking in the top ten in the majors over the past week. Seattle had won 7 of 9 games and averaged 5 runs per game during that stretch before last night's 9-3 loss. The Mariners lineup should take advantage of Matz here as the Blue Jays are 1-4 in his home starts this season and his 5.76 ERA at home could easily be even higher as he has a 1.92 WHIP in home starts this season. He will not be the only pitcher struggling tonight. The Mariners hand the ball to Justus Sheffield and he is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA in his last 3 starts. Sheffield also struggled in his only career start against the Blue Jays. He has a 6.10 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. The southpaw is facing a Blue Jays team that has a .477 slugging percentage in the last 30 days and that is good for 3rd in the majors! Toronto is 8-1 last 9 games and has scored an average of 7 runs per game during this hot stretch. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 219 Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, Game 4 Tuesday - Trae Young’s availability for tonight’s game is in question as he has a bone bruise on his ankle. We are basing this wager on him playing in this game but certainly not being 100%. Young is averaging 25PPG on the season and has 5 playoff games where he has scored 34+ points. Atlanta relies heavily on his scoring and if he’s not at full strength the Hawks will have a hard time putting up points here. The first game of this series ended with 229 total points, but it took 197 field goal attempts to get to that number. In Game 2 the number of field goal attempts dropped to 178 and 216 total points, then in Game 3 the teams combined for 172 FGA’s and just 215-points. Both teams have seen a decline in their overall shooting percentages in this series which ties into lower offensive efficiency ratings too. The Bucks and Hawks are both averaging less points per possession in the playoffs than they did in the regular season and Milwaukee’s defense has played at a high level. The Bucks are allowing just 1.044-points per possession in the playoffs which is significantly lower than their season PPP allowed of 1.107. These two teams have stayed Under in four straight meetings in Atlanta and 4 of the last five overall. The oddsmakers have adjusted this number down but they haven’t moved it enough. Bet UNDER. |
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06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals free fall continued with another loss last night as they blew a 5-1 lead and lost 6-5. With that loss, the Royals have now won just 17 of their last 52 games and they’ve lost 18 of 22 games overall including 6 straight! Kansas City sends Brad Keller to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to resume. Keller is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Keller has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the Royals poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Kansas City relievers have combined for a 5.67 ERA the last 30 days and that ranks 28th out of 30 teams in MLB! Meanwhile the Red Sox will start Nick Pivetta and Boston is 6-2 on the season in his home starts! Pivetta's most recent outing was on the road and the Red Sox were handed a tough 1-0 loss as he was fantastic on the mound with 8 strikeouts and holding the Rays scoreless (and hitless!) for his 6 and 2 / 3 innings! The Red Sox have won 4 straight games and 16 of their last 24 games overall. Also, 35 of their 48 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 11 of Kansas City’s last 15 losses, prior to last night's 6-5 loss, had come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Boston 4th in AL with 3.55 ERA) as well, we’ll back the Boston Red Sox on the run line Tuesday evening. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home. |
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06-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Arizona, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The DBacks snapped their free fall with a rare win last night. Even with that victory, they have now won just 7 of their last 50 games and they’ve lost 20 of 22 games overall! Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound and we expect his recent road struggles to resume. He is off a solid home outing but gave up 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings in his last road outing. Also, Gallen has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 333 hits and 48 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Padres will start Yu Darvish who is 7-2 on the season and San Diego is 12-3 in his starts this season! Darvish has an ERA of just 2.50 in his 15 starts this season! The Padres had won 8 straight games prior to last night's ugly loss and 36 of their 46 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 17 of Arizona’s last 23 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Padres 2nd in MLB with 2.85 ERA) as well, we’ll back the San Diego Padres on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
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06-26-21 | Suns -113 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -110 over LA Clippers Game 4 Saturday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 3 yet the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this line and made them favorites at home. That tells us something and we’ll put our money on the side Vegas doesn’t want us to be on. Phoenix had a horrible shooting night in Game 3 with Chris Paul and Devin Booker combining to go 10 of 40 so expect both to return to more normal averages here. As a team the Suns shot just 39% in the last game after shooting 55% and 50% in the first two games of the series. Phoenix was 18-6 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 4. |
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06-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:15 PM ET - After falling short with this play yesterday we will come right back with it today. The wind will be blowing out toward center at a good clip for this one on a warm summer evening at Fenway Park. With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs. The Yankees Jordan Montgomery did not make it out of the 6th inning in either of his last two road starts and he gave up 8 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings while allowing 17 baserunners (13 hits and 4 walks). Montgomery also allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 and 2 / 3 innings in his most recent start at Fenway Park. The Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi in this one. The right-hander has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts and gave up 9 runs (8 earned) in less than 10 innings in the two starts in which he struggled. Also, Eovaldi has a 7.15 ERA with 4 homers allowed in his last 2 starts against the Yankees. Our computer math model is indicating he will struggle again here so the Yankees should score their fair share of runs. However, the Red Sox have now won all 4 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game. :In other words, the total looks like the value play here and the over is 9-5 in the last 14 games between these teams at Fenway Park. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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06-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 or 10.5 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:05 PM ET - Boston's Martin Perez finally had a decent start but it was against a struggling Royals team and Perez was not even efficient in that start as he threw way too many pitches for balls. Prior to that outing, Perez gave up 11 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings combined and those two starts were each at home just like this one is. Also, Perez has a 7.92 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees. New York comes into this one swinging hot sticks and will give Perez a lot of trouble. The Yankees have won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories. Boston should answer the Yankees run for run in this one and they are known for being a stronger hitting team when at home. They will face Domingo German. The Yankees right-hander had some success against them earlier this month but that was at Yankee Stadium and the last time he pitched at Fenway Park he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. Also, German enters this start in rough current form with 11 earned runs allowed on 17 hits in 8 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs. The Red Sox have won all 3 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game. Both teams had some success against the bullpen arms they faced as well in the earlier meetings and now with the Yankees seeking revenge for the 3-game sweep suffered in the Bronx earlier this month, they will be very focused at the plate and likely to pound Perez. At the same time, German simply can not be trusted based on current form and this is particularly true at Fenway. The last two of the games in the 3 game set went over the total and the over is also 9-4 in the last 13 games between these teams at Fenway Park. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 10 to 10.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 221 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 104 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 Phoenix Suns @ L.A. Clippers, Game 3 Thursday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which forced the oddsmakers to adjust the Total up from 220 in the opener to 224 in Game 2. Now in Game 3 we are back in the 220 range. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. In Game two we had a much slower tempo than Game 1 as these two teams attempted just 160 total field goal attempts. The Suns shot well again at 50% overall while the Clippers hit 45%. In Game 2 these two clubs combined for less than 51-points in three of the four quarters. As we mentioned in our previous analysis. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and Game 2 finished with 207. We see another defensive struggle with a low scoring affair. |
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06-24-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – These two pitchers have big ERA numbers on the season but that hides how well their more recent outings have been and we have a big number to work with here. Anthony Kay's two most recent home starts have seen him allow a total of just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 8 innings of work! He'll take advantage of facing an Orioles team that got shut out the plate yesterday and that was at home. Now this Baltimore club has taken to the road where they have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of last 12 games! So the Orioles traveled to Buffalo for this game after playing in Baltimore last night and the Blue Jays were in an even tougher travel situation as they came all the way from down south in Miami where they played last night. Certainly there could be some "sleepy bats" at the plate for this one and Toronto will face an improving Dean Kremer in this one. Like Kay, he has a high ERA on the season but has shown improvement in recent outings. Kremer, in fact, had a stint at AAA Norfolk that has seemed to turn him around. He gave up only 3 hits in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in 2 outings there earlier this month. Now, after returning to the Orioles, Kremer has given up only 7 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings and that includes a solid start versus the Blue Jays in his most recent outing. Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 home games and averaged scoring only 3 runs per game in the 5 defeats. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 8 to 9 runs and even if it reaches 10 that is still a winning ticket based on the 10.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
#11/12 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 5 Goals - New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET – The Islanders just got blasted 8-0 on Monday and are a tough defensive-minded team. In other words, that was an uncharacteristic loss for a Barry Trotz led team and the head coach will have his club ready to respond here. We look for a tight game with an emphasis on protecting their own goal in this game as a result. This is Islanders hockey and they will resume that here after the ugly loss Monday. Only 1 of the last 7 games between these teams, prior to Game 5 in this series, had resulted in a game totaling more than 5 goals. That being said, the Monday result could (and should) be considered a statistical anomaly and tonight's game can (and should) be expected to play out much differently. Islanders have averaged only 1.5 goals per game in the last 8 games against the Lightning. Tampa Bay, prior to the 8-0 win Monday, had been held to 2 or less goals in 5 of last 6 games against the Islanders! As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect goals to be tough to come by for both clubs in this one! Take the UNDER here |
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06-23-21 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - The Athletics have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 6.6 runs per game in the last 10 games of that stretch with 8 of those 10 going over the total. The Rangers are on a 7-2-1 O/U run with an average of 5 runs scored per game in the last 9 of those games. The pitching match-up is also positive for the over here as Texas has a struggling Mike Foltneywicz slated to get the start. The Rangers right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.59 ERA and things are going from bad to worse as Foltneywicz has a 6.88 ERA over his last 7 starts. Oakland starter James Kaprielian has produced solid numbers overall but has a 4.32 ERA in his road starts this year. If he is going to get touched up it is likely to be on the road and Kaprielian has a 5.65 ERA in his last 3 starts and gave up 2 homers in his most recent road start. The O/U is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings between these teams so there is a history of overs between these divisional foes in recent seasons. The money line on Oakland is moving lower this morning and this is indicating possible sharp money on Texas as who else would be betting a Rangers team that has lost 7 of 8 games? The point is that for Texas to have a shot to win this one they will have to score plenty based on how Foltneywicz has so consistently struggled. That being said, plenty of runs likely in this one given all of these variables. This total is in the 9.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this number up from the 220 it was in the opener. That added value has us on the Under here. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The hype of this game will wear off and expect the young Suns to return to normal here. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and this game is going to stay right around that average or 215 total points. |
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06-22-21 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - After a big win at Minnesota way back on May 1st, the Royals sat at 16-9 on the season. Kansas City has since gone 16-29 in 45 games! The Yankees are a huge money line home favorite here as a result of that plus having Gerrit Cole on the mound but we can get some strong line value here by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line with New York. Cole is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA this season. Amazingly, Cole has piled up 117 strikeouts in his first 14 starts this season! He will dominate here as the Royals have averaged only 2.5 runs last 12 losses. A loss is likely here as Brady Singer gets the start for Kansas City and will be no match for Cole. Singer went 2-4 with a 4.32 ERA in night starts last season and is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA and .292 BAA in evening outings this season. Kansas City is 1-5 in Singer's road starts this season and he has a 5.60 ERA in those outings. Singer is dealing with shoulder tightness and may not work deep here and the Royals bullpen has a 4.84 ERA last 30 days to rank among the worst in the majors. New York's bullpen has a 3.06 ERA to rank among the best in the majors. Both the Yankees and Royals were off yesterday and New York enters this game having won 5 of last 6 games and 11 of 17 wins since mid-May were by at least 2 runs. Also, the Royals are off a rare win as KC had lost 12 of 14 before tasting victory on Sunday. 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the New York Yankees on the run line Tuesday evening. |
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06-21-21 | Reds v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins, 8:10 PM ET - The Twins JA Happ is having a very rough season and showing no signs of turning it around. At the same time, his teammates should enjoy plenty of success at the plate at home in this one. Minnesota recently welcomed back Byron Buxton to the lineup. Even though Josh Donaldson left yesterday's game, his replacement - Luis Arraez - pounded out 3 hits and is currently on a 7 for 20 run at the plate. Not a power hitter but, as you can see, Arraez is getting the job done of late with his base knocks nonetheless. Nelson Cruz left yesterday's game but, like Donaldson, could be back for this one. His replacement was power hitter Miguel Sano and this Twins lineup managed 14 hits in yesterday's game and that was on the road. Though the Reds Tyler Mahle has good numbers of late, he will have his hands full with a Twins lineup known for being particularly tough at home. Minnesota will need all the runs they can get because Happ continues to get lit up with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and 6 homers allowed over 14 innings. Happ has been hit at a .329 clip in night games this year and has an 8.02 ERA under the lights this season. The over is 7-3-1 in Reds games against left-handed starters this year. Last but not least, these are two of the weaker bullpens in MLB and the Twins have a 4.82 ERA and the Reds have a 5.66 ERA which ranks dead last in MLB. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +159 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+160) over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Golden Knights might be starting Robin Lehner in goal tonight. He was the first goalie off the ice at this morning's skate. No matter which goalie Vegas goes with tonight it should be interesting. Lehner would be very rusty as he has not played since Game 1 of the post-season series with Colorado and he allowed 7 goals in that one! If Vegas sticks with Fleury how will his bad error late in Game 3 impact him here? The mentality, overall, of the Golden Knights could be fragile here...they have lost back to back games, there is some confusion about the goalie situation, and they are on the road. The Canadiens are on home ice again, rolling with confidence, and have won 9 of 10 games. Even though Vegas outshot Montreal in Friday's game the Canadiens found a way and they can do so again tonight. Too much value with the big home dog on the money line here per all of the above. Hot team, home ice, big dog line. Bet Montreal Canadiens (+160) |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET Sunday - The numbers suggest this is going to be a tightly contested game between two young teams that are new to this type of a high-pressure situation. The added weight of a Game 7 will lead to a lower scoring game and defensive grinder. The last three games in this series have resulted Unders and 203, 215 and 103 total points being scored. Shooting percentages for both teams have trended down as the series has gone on with the most recent game ending with both teams shooting just 41% from the field. The Hawks have stayed Under in 5 of their last six road games against quality teams such as Philly while Philly on 4-1 Under streak when favored. The Sixers have the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they allow just 1.088-points per possession. Atlanta is 5th in DEFF, giving up just 1.096PPP. The 76ers are averaging 1.137PPP in this series, which is right around their season average, but the Hawks are well below their season average at 1.087PPP. Both teams have played well below their season averages in pace of play in this series and if that continues today, we cash an easy Under. |
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06-20-21 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Marco Gonzales struggled with a tough Twins lineup in his most recent start. However, in his 2 prior home starts he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 4 hits in 11 innings while striking out 12 batters! The Rays lineup does not have much experience against him which is a big edge here. Speaking of a lack of hitters' experience, the Mariners have never faced the Rays Shane McClanahan. The rookie southpaw has flashed great stuff this season and pitched much better than his linescore would indicate in his last start. McClanahan faced a White Sox team that is the best in the majors against southpaws and only 4 of the 7 hits left the infield! The lefty is undefeated in his 4 daytime starts this season and struck out 23 hits in 18 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for Gonzales to come up with another strong start at home here. He went 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his home starts last season. Gonzales also went 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in day game starts last season. The Rays have the best bullpen in the American League. The Mariners bullpen has a solid 3.58 ERA in home games this season. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and scored an average of only 3.6 runs per game and our computer math model projects a very strong outing for both Gonzales and McClanahan in this one. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line over Arizona, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - The DBacks continue their free fall with another loss last night. They have now won just 5 of their last 43 games and they’ve lost 15 straight games overall! Arizona sends Matt Peacock to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to continue. He is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA this month and has averaged less than 4 innings per start in June. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 300 hits and 43 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler who is 6-0 on the season and undefeated in his last 23 regular season starts! Buehler has an ERA of just 2.38 in his 13 starts this season! The Dodgers have won all 5 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 22-6. Going back further, the DBacks have won just 10 of last 34 meetings with the Dodgers. LA has won 8 of last 10 games and 7 of the 8 wins were by at least 2 runs. Also, 14 of Arizona’s last 18 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Saturday night. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -122 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -120 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Historically, home teams in Game 7’s dominate to the tune of 80% win rates and there is no reason to doubt that logic here. Brooklyn enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA this season with a 34-8 SU record despite not having parts of the “Big 3” available most nights. The Nets will be without Kyrie here, but it doesn’t seem to matter as KD is the most dominant player in the league and is nearly unstoppable offensively. The Nets are on a fantastic 15-2 SU run at home and have covered 13 of those games. The Bucks Achilles heel defensively is their 3-point defense which ranks as one of the worst in the league. The Nets have taken advantage at home of where they shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc which is one of the better numbers in the NBA. The Bucks got a HUGE offensive performance from Middleton (38-pts) in their Game 6 win but the rest of the Bucks were a dismal 2 for 25 from beyond the 3-point line. We are betting the Bucks implode late in this game and will revert back to iso-ball which doesn’t work for them. Not too mention poor free throw shooting in a close game. The bet here is on the best player in the NBA and the Nets. |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -125 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz money line -125 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET – Game 6 Friday - There is a reason the Jazz are favored on the road in this possible elimination game. We won’t be deterred by our last game loss with the Jazz and will come right back with a bet on them here. Leonard is out again here so the Clippers will have to find a way to win again without their Superstar. In this series, the two wins by the Clippers at home were anchored by incredible games by Kawhi. Leonard scored 31 & 34 points in both wins and grabbed 19 total rebounds. In the losses he scored just 21 and 23-points. In Game 5 the Clippers got a HUGE game from Paul George who scored 37, grabbed 16 rebounds and handed out 5 assists. When Superstars are out of games the reserves typically step up in the next contest but then regress to the norm after that. Tonight, the Clippers will sorely miss Leonard’s 50% shooting in this series not to mention his defensive presence. Donovan Mitchell had scored 30 or more points in the first four games of this series and 37+ in three of the four before a dude in Game 5 of 21-points. Utah was one of the best team in the NBA all season long on the road with a 21-15 SU record at home in the regular season with a +5.3PPG differential (#1 in NBA). The Jazz are 16-7 SU off a loss this season and they will find a way to win this road game and force a Game 7. |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#41/42 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5 Goals - Montreal Canadiens vs Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 8:00 PM ET – The Golden Knights lost Game 2 on home ice by a 3-2 count. The last 10 times that Vegas has entered a game off a loss they have gone a fantastic 8-2. Of course that is a big part of the reason that the Knights are a sizable money line favorite even though they are on the road in this game. That being said, where we see the value here is with the total. In those 10 games when off a loss, Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals per game. The Golden Knights should indeed score well in this bounce back spot but they will struggle to stop a Canadiens team that has momentum right now and is also excited to be back on their home ice. Montreal has won 8 of 9 games and, not including OT goals, has averaged scoring 3 goals in those 8 victories! The Canadiens looked very strong in Game 2 and had plenty of good quality chances which helped lead the way to the 3 goals they ended up with. Montreal should again enjoy success as they were creating great chances in Game 2 but the difference here in Game 3 will be a much more aggressive approach in the offensive zone from the hungry Golden Knights. That being said, and with this total sitting at 5 goals, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a game in the 6 to 7 goal range here. The Canadiens are on a roll and playing with a lot of confidence as they have won 7 of 8 games. Vegas, in its last 5 games (not including OT goals), has scored an average of 3.8 goals per game! As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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06-18-21 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA play on: OVER 8.5 Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - Jose Berrios has been the Twins most consistent starter this season by far and is a fantastic pitcher. However, when he has struggled through the years it has tended to be on the road and his starts at Texas have been no exception. In his last two outings (both on the road) against the Rangers, Berrios has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings. The Twins right-hander allowed 5 homers in those two starts. None of the Rangers last 5 games have resulted in an under and Texas has averaged scoring 5.5 runs in its last four games. The point is that it will not be surprising to see Berrios have some struggles in this match-up. However, the good news for Berrios (and for Twins fans) is that he should get plenty of run support in this one! Minnesota will be able to tee off against a struggling Mike Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings with 5 home runs surrendered in his last three starts. Also, against the Twins, Foltneywicz has 3 career starts and all resulted in an over and he compiled a 6.32 ERA in those outings. Though some of that is a few years back, in terms of current form this season, Foltneywicz is truly having a rough time. This includes the Texas righty going 1-4 with a 6.88 ERA and .336 BAA in his night starts this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in the Twins last 10 games with a high-scoring one tonight. This total is in the 8.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -123 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -120 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - While it may seem like there is not a pitching edge here there is, in fact, a "hidden" edge to the Mets. The Cubs are starting Kyle Hendricks and he has been strong over his last 6 starts and 4 of those were on the road where he typically struggles. Though he has had overall success in those recent starts, 2 of the 4 road starts were at Pittsburgh and Detroit which of course are two of the weaker teams in the majors. Despite some recent success, Hendricks is still getting hit at a .290 clip in road starts this season, a .287 clip away from home last season, and a .290 clip in 2019 on the road. While Hendricks is quite hittable away from home as you can see given those numbers, Marcus Stroman of the Mets has been fantastic this season. Also, Stroman is pitching for a Mets team that is now 20-6 in home games after yesterday's 6-3 win dropped the Cubs to 14-20 in road games this season. Stroman has a 2.33 ERA this season and that improves to a 1.88 ERA when he is at home. The Mets are 4-1 in his home starts this season and Hendricks, on the other hand, gave up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his last start at New York. The home team is a perfect 6-0 in the 6 meetings between these teams this season. Not only that, the Cubs are overall 3-7 in their last 10 road games. The Mets are 8-2 last 10 games overall and our computer math model reflects a home blowout is likely here. We will grab the home team (and hotter team!) with the "hidden" pitching edge on the mound at a fantastic price on the money line in this one and bet New York Mets -120 |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win. |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians, 7:10 PM ET - This total was 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 and this is still American League baseball and this move seems awfully aggressive. We will take advantage of the line value being offered by the betting markets here. The Orioles Keegin Akin faced the Indians lineup earlier this month. Cleveland's Aaron Civale faced the Baltimore lineup earlier this month. The hitters just saw these pitchers and, though Civale has solid overall numbers, the Orioles got to him for 4 earned runs and hit 3 homers in that match-up. Akin was more successful in his start but he was also fortunate and gave up quite a few hard hit balls. Also, that start was at home for Akin but now he faces the Indians on the road and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his two road outings this season and has been in some jams as a result of too many hits and walks. The Indians, off a 7-2 win yesterday, will make Akin pay for putting too many guys on base in this rematch. There has only been one under in the last four games between these teams and these four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. Cleveland has scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 9 games. Only 2 of the Orioles last 9 games have been unders and Baltimore has averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch. This total is in the 7.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting close to or possibly even into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - This number is the second highest the Nets have been as a dog this season at home and even without Kyrie and Harden they are the bet here. KD can obviously carry a team himself and back at home we expect the reserves to step up. Let’s not forget Joe Harris was bordering an All-Star level of play before the Super Star additions and he’s more than capable of filling it up from beyond the Arc. Let’s face it, Brooklyn 33-8 SU at home this season and a majority of those wins came without one of the Big 3 playing. The Nets were 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and they’ll find a way to keep this one close throughout. |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#11/12 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Over 5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET – The Lightning lost Game 1 on home ice by a 2-1 count. The last 4 times that Tampa Bay has entered a game off a loss they have gone a perfect 4-0. Of course that is a big part of the reason that TB is a 2 to 1 money line favorite in this game. That being said, where we see the value here is with the total. The Islanders looked very strong in Game 1 and had plenty of good quality chances to score much more than the 2 goals they ended up with. New York should again enjoy success as they were creating great chances in Game 1 but the difference here in Game 2 will be a much more aggressive approach in the offensive zone from Tampa Bay. We mentioned the 4-0 run above when TB is in this situation (off a loss) and the Lightning have scored an average of 5.25 goals in those 4 victories. In fact they scored at least 4 goals all 4 times. That being said, and with this total sitting at 5 goals, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a game in the 6 to 7 goal range here. 3 of those 4 TB victories when off a loss resulted in an easy over and this one should as well. The Islanders are on a roll and playing with a lot of confidence as they have won 7 of 9 games. New York, in its last 10 games, has scored an average of 3.8 goals per game! As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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06-15-21 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates have lost 8 straight games and have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game during this losing streak. The Nationals have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under the total. Washington has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game in those 10 match-ups that stayed under the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams at DC have stayed under the total. Looking at the full season ERA numbers for these two pitchers it may seem contrarian to be on the under but this play is about more than just a pair of struggling lineups. Let's talk about those starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson has held opponents to a paltry .220 batting average while striking out 32 in 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his 5 road starts this season. Patrick Corbin has an amazing 0.41 ERA over his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh and has struck out 27 while allowing just 10 hits in 22 innings spanning those 3 starts against the Pirates. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5 over LA Clippers, Game 4 Monday 10 PM ET - Before the playoffs started, we felt the Jazz were the best team in the West and our opinion hasn’t changed even though the Suns look outstanding. Utah had the most wins during the regular season at 52 and are 6-2 SU in the playoffs. Utah had a +9.2PPG differential (1st) overall and the best margin of victory on the road too at +5.3PPG. The Jazz ranked top seven in both road offensive and defensive efficiency. The Clippers are obviously a good team with star power in George and Leonard, but they haven’t been unbeatable at home with three losses in the opening round to Dallas. In Game 3 the Clippers shot well above their season averages at 56% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages of 48% and 41%. Not to mention the Jazz are the 2nd best field goal percentage defense in the NBA. The Clippers have just one cover in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit win while the Jazz are 16-5 SU off a loss, 8-4 on the road. Grab the points and the underdog here. |
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06-14-21 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are off a low-scoring 2-0 win at home versus the Cardinals last night. The Mets are off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres which went over the total. 9 of New York's 13 games dating to late May have resulted in an over. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has seen his starts lead to a high percentage of unders this season but this has truly been an anomaly and is highly unlikely to continue. Prior to a rare strong start in his last outing, Arrieta had an 8.28 ERA over his 6 preceding starts. On the road this season the veteran right-hander has a 6.40 ERA in 7 starts. David Peterson gets the start for the Mets but it is certainly not based on merit as his days in the rotation could be numbered. Peterson is having a very rough time with a 1-5 record and 6.32 ERA on the season. Things have not been improving for the Mets southpaw either as he has a 9.88 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs have won 5 straight games and will have plenty of confidence against Peterson as they averaged 6.3 runs in the first 4 games of their hot streak. Last night's Cubs game was a pitchers duel but you can see why this one will be anything but that. Also, Peterson had a rough start at Chicago earlier this season and now faces the Cubs at home where he has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings his past two starts. Couple that with Arrieta's long-term struggles (his last start notwithstanding) and this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of fireworks. . This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-13-21 | Angels v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have been the worst team in baseball this season but the over trend in their games continues and this is the perfect spot for another one. Arizona actually has the #1 slugging percentage, .445, in day games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks rank in the top ten in the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and in home games. That being said, there is solid value here in going against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. He has some good numbers this season but those have come at home. He did have one road start and was successful in that one but he got hit harder than you would think just from looking at the box score and Sandoval had to work out of multiple jams in that one. In his only road appearance out of the bullpen this season he got hit hard. Last season Sandoval was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA on the road. In the prior year, his rookie season, he was winless in 5 games (4 starts) on the road and had a 6.52 ERA. The over is a perfect 8-0 in Arizona's last 8 home games. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs in those games. Arizona has allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game in those home contests. With Jon Duplantier getting the start here, those runs against numbers are unlikely to improve! Duplantier is winless with a 10.03 ERA in his 3 starts this season. His only prior MLB experience was in 2019 when he pitched in 15 games and opponents hit .283 against him. He has labored this season and Duplantier has yet to complete 5 innings in a start. Considering the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and a majors-worst .271 BAA, that spells trouble for Arizona in this one. The Diamondbacks are on a 5-32 run but they can hit Sandoval here and that is why the over is the play. Arizona gives up tons of runs but they can score plenty too especially in a day game at home. Also, the Angels hot bats have helped lead the way to an 8-2 run in which Los Angeles has scored an average of 7.4 runs in the 8 victories. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-13-21 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - This is a rematch of a playoff series last year and, in that one, New York was tired in Game One and it showed. The Islanders got blasted in that first game 8 to 2 but they were short on rest and off a grueling 7-game series with Philly. This season's set-up is much different and the Islanders are ready to go from the opening drop of the puck in this one. That being said, a ton of line value here in grabbing the +1.5 goals with the Islanders. New York has played 12 games in this post-season and only 1 of them was a loss by more than 1-goal margin! Tampa Bay has played 11 games in the post-season less than half of those games were Lightning wins by more than a 1-goal margin. The road team won each of the last 3 games between these teams in last year's playoffs. Also, the only loss for the Islanders as the designated road team in that bubble format that was by more than 1 goal was the game one loss which was a very tricky scheduling situation for them. Tough defensive-minded team in the Islanders and Tampa Bay will struggle just to win this game let alone win by any kind of margin. While New York certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice. However, if the Islanders do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog NY Islanders is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-132 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +4.5 over LA Clippers, Game 3 Saturday 8:25PM ET Yes, we are going to ignore the zig-zag theory here and bet the overall better team in the Jazz. Utah was the best team in the NBA all season long and have flown under the radar because of a late season injury to Donovan Mitchell but they are clearly in top form now. Speaking of Mitchell, the Clippers have no answer for him right now as he’s put up 45 and 37-points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers were built for a Championship, but they are missing a piece or two and the dynamic duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t enough. Utah is 35-6 SU on the road this season and had the best road point differential in the league at +5.3PPG, the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers when away from home. Examining the previous meetings this season we see the Jazz have won and covered 4 of five and the lone loss was by 4-points. Let’s not forget the Clippers lost three home games in the last round to the Mavericks so they are not unbeatable on their home floor. Back the better team and the grab the points. |
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06-12-21 | Astros -106 v. Twins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -110 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Twins are getting plenty of respect here because Jose Berrios is on the mound. That is why, despite the Astros being the much hotter team of late, this game is priced in nearly a pick'em price range. Berrios is coming off a start in which he allowed 4 earned runs. While that start was on the road and you might expect him to now be much better at home, this has simply not been the case for Berrios this season. The Minnesota right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 home starts! On the season, Berrios has an unimpressive 4.71 ERA in his home starts and opponents are hitting .270 against him at Target Field. The Astros counter with Luis Garcia here. The right-hander is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and allowed a total of only 6 earned runs in those 5 starts! Adding to the value in this spot is that Houston's lineup has hitters with some strong experience against Berrios. The Twins, on the other hand, have just one hitter with experience (Simmons 0 for 2) against Garcia. Not only that, the Twins are overall 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 9-3 last 12 games overall and our computer math model reflects a road rout is likely here. We will grab the road team (and hotter team!) with the "hidden" pitching edge on the mound at a fantastic price on the money line in this one and bet Houston Astros -110 |
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06-11-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers are a huge money line favorite here with good reason. The Pirates have lost 4 straight games and 7 of 10. On the road this season Pittsburgh is 10-19 and the Bucs have gone just 11-23 against teams with a winning record. Of course this is part of the reason that Milwaukee is such a big favorite here and note too that the Brewers have won 11 of 13 games. The value here is on the run line because of course we are not going to suggest laying the massive money line price here. By laying the 1.5 runs on the Brewers, we get their price range down into the -135 area and 25 of Milwaukee's 35 wins this season have come by 2+ runs. Also, an incredible 32 of the Pirates 38 losses have been by a multiple-run margin. Pittsburgh also is just 7-19 in divisional games. The Pirates start Chase DeJong here and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and this was against the Marlins. He is inexperienced at the MLB level. The Brewers start Brandon Woodruff and he is off a rare subpar outing and will bounce back here as he has been phenomenal this season. Woodruff has a 1.42 ERA on the season with a 0.74 WHIP and Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +1.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Friday 7:35 PM ET - The home crowd will be rocking in Atlanta tonight when the Hawks look to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta has been fantastic since head coach Nate McMillan took over with a 27-11 SU record and have improved in all areas of their game. The Hawks were 25-11 SU at home during the regular season with the 8th best average margin of victory at home of +6.3PPG. Atlanta has the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 13th best defensive efficiency. The 76ers defensive efficiency numbers have been good at home and on the road where they rank 3rd overall but offensively their road efficiency is 1.106-points per possession which ranks 19th. We don’t expect Seth Curry and Shake Milton having incredible shooting nights by coming to go 9 of 11 from beyond the 3-point line as they did at home in Game 2. The Hawks have covered 6 straight at home against the Sixers and we are betting it’s 7 in a row after tonight. |
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - This total opened up at an 8 yesterday and is now up to a 9 this morning. This is despite the fact that each of these teams have trended under recently. What this tells us of course is that some sharp action is coming in on the over in this one and this game was already on our radar for a potential play Thursday and now it is go time. Chicago's Dallas Keuchel has a 4.81 ERA in home starts this season and the O/U is 4-2 in those outings. He has a respectable ERA last 3 starts but has given up 19 hits in the 15 innings over those 3 starts. Also, Keuchel has given up 4 homers in his last 2 starts and both of those games went over the total. The O/U is 3-0 in Hyun Jin Ryu's last 3 starts. In this battle of southpaws, the Blue Jays left-hander is likely to struggle. The White Sox are one of the top hitting and top slugging teams in the majors when facing lefties. Also, Ryu is off a very rough start against the Astros in which he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings and only struck out one while walking three. That game was at home and now Ryu is on the road where he has trended with higher ERA's than at home in each of his last 4 seasons and that trend holding true this season as well. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5.4 runs in 5 most recent road games. The White Sox have averaged scoring 6.7 runs a game this season in games against left-handed starters. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Thursday 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks have let their backers down in two different ways in this series by not being able to produce offensively. We are not about to support the Bucks here at home in this game but will try out luck on the Over again. Milwaukee has two straight abysmal shooting nights which clearly isn’t the norm for several reasons. First off, the Bucks were one of the best shooting teams all season long with the 3rd best overall FG percentage in the NBA and 5th best 3-points shooting. Secondly, the Nets have been a below average defensive team all season long ranking 22nd in overall defensive efficiency, 14th in 3-point defense and 7th in overall FG% D. The Bucks are a horrendous 14 of 57 from beyond the Arc in the series but we expect that to change back at home where the Bucks shot 39.8% on the season from the 3-point line. We know the Nets are going to score again as the Bucks don’t seem to have an answer for KD who has scored at will in both games thus far on 24 of 43 shooting and 51-points. Milwaukee was 29th in 3-point percentage defense this season so expect the Nets shooters to continue to get open looks. The Bucks average 120PPG at home this year and will have a much better offensive showing here. Bet OVER. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30 PM ET - The Suns got a solid 17-point win in the opener and were the much better team on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets may have the best player on the floor in MVP Jokic, but the Suns depth and balance is the difference. Phoenix had four players score 20+ points in Game 1 with the team shooting over 54% from the field and 38% from beyond the Arc. Without Jamal Murray the Nuggets lack their best playmaker off the bounce and forces Denver to rely too heavily on Jokic. The longer, more athletic Ayton held Jokic to 22-points in the opener and defensively could be the difference in this series. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five as a favorite and had the 4th best average home point differential in the league this season of +8.9PPG. The Nuggets second best scorer Porter Jr is listed as questionable tonight and not 100% which only magnifies Denver’s lack of scoring here. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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06-09-21 | Bruins -131 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -131 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Money Line (-130) over New York Islanders , Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Bruins suddenly have lost back to back games in this series after taking a 2 to 1 series lead with a road win at New York Thursday which appeared to give them a stranglehold on the series. Now, after back to back losses, Boston finds themselves playing an elimination game but this is a veteran hockey club that will not wilt under pressure. The fact is they have outplayed the Islanders for much of this series and the oddsmakers are well aware of this too as that is why you are seeing the Bruins as a -130 favorite in this one despite having lost 2 straight and despite being on the road. About that home ice edge for the Islanders here, note that the road team has won 3 of the last 4 games in this series. About the 3 to 2 series edge for New York, note that the Bruins have outshot the Islanders by a count of 196 to 143 in this series! The Islanders won Game 5 by a 5-4 count thanks in part to 3 power play goals. However, in the Islanders last 7 games on home ice against the Bruins they are only 2 of 20 (10%) on the power play. The Bruins are 5 of 11 (46%) on the power play in this series and though he was fined for saying it, the fact the Boston head coach criticized the officiating after the Game 5 loss could pay off here. 5 on 5 the Bruins are the better team and we should either see less penalty calls in Game 6 or if there are a fair amount called, don't be surprised if the road team gets at least their fair share in this one. The Bruins are 8-0 this year when entering a game off back to back losses! Bet Boston Bruins (-130) |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 7:10 PM ET - We already had our eyes on this one based on the pitching match-up and now a couple of other factors solidified this play. Yesterday's game was 7-1 through 4 innings and stayed that way! As a result the game stayed under the total even though the teams had 8 runs through the first 4 frames. We like coming back with overs a day after a game like that. Another factor we like here is that it will be another very warm day today in Boston so good weather for an over is expected this evening at Fenway Park. Back to the pitching match-up which had us eyeing this game, the Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi here and he has a 4.47 ERA at home this season which is more than 2 runs higher than what he has produced in road games this season. Now he takes on a surging Astros team that has won 7 of 9 games and has scored an average of 6.2 runs in the last 10 games. Though the Red Sox lost yesterday and managed just 1 run, this was on the heels of a 5-game winning streak in which they produced 5.6 runs per game. Tonight Boston will take advantage of facing a struggling Jake Odorizzi. He only recently came back from an injury and his overall struggles this season have continued. He is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in his five starts. In limited action last season, Odorizzi also was winless and he had a 6.59 ERA in four starts. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -141 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -140 over Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 8:105 PM ET - The White Sox are slugging .469 versus left-handed pitching this season and that is the best slugging percentage in the majors against lefties. The Blue Jays are starting southpaw Robbie Ray in this one and he has given up 2 homers in each of his last 4 road starts! Ray is 0-4 in 11 games (10 starts) on the road the past two seasons with a 6.27 ERA away from home. He will be no match for Chicago's Carlos Rodon in this one. Rodon has rounded into top form this season. The lefty has been fantastic both home and away but what is particularly amazing is that Rodon has held the opposition to a .124 batting average in his home starts while striking out 34 in 26 and 2 / 3 innings. The White Sox are 23-10 in home games this season and also 23-10 in night games this season plus a fantastic 13-4 versus left-handed starters. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are 5-7 against lefties this season! Toronto also has a losing record in night games this season. The Jays are overall 5-4 last 9 games but went 0-2 in games against lefty starters during this stretch. The White Sox are 7-1 last 8 home games and our computer math model reflects a home blowout is likely here. We will grab the home team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Chicago White Sox -140 |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s not forget the 76ers were the best team in the East all season long and have a MVP level player in Joel Embiid and a Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. Granted, Embiid isn’t 100% but he wasn’t in Game 1 either and he put up 39-points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Philadelphia is going to bounce back here against a young Atlanta team that will let down after their Game 1 win. Both teams shot extremely well in the opener, but the difference was the Hawks 20 made 3-pointers to the 76ers 10. Those numbers are startling considering both teams are top 10 in 3-point percentage defense and rank 11th and 12th in 3-point shooting offensively. The 76ers are 6th in points allowed per game this season and 4th in overall field goal percentage defense. Philadelphia was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season while the Hawks were 21st. Atlanta does hold a slight edge offensively with the 8th best offense efficiency rating, but Philly is 13th. The Hawks were just +2-point dogs at New York which makes tonight’s line a bargain with a much better Sixers team that is off a loss. These teams met in late April in Philly with the 76ers dominating in a 44-point (no Trae Young) and 22-point (w/Trae Young) home wins. The 76ers had the second-best home point differential in the NBA this season at +8.9PPG and were 29-7 SU on their home court this season. Philly was 14-9-1 ATS off a loss this season at 10-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. In their last eleven home games when coming off a loss the 76ers are 10-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 13PPG. This game has all the makings of a pointspread blowout. |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 235.5 | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets, 7:35 PM ET - The Under came through in Game 1 but the pace of play suggest it should have gone Over despite poor shooting by the Bucks. The results of that game have driven this line down so we will side with the value here and Over. These two teams attempted 200 field goals in Game 1 which is drastically higher than league average this season of 187. Milwaukee had a horrible 3-point shooting night in Game 1 by making just 6 of 30 3-point attempts or 20%. The law of averages suggest that was an aberration as the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.9%. Not only that, the Nets 3-point percentage defense was 14th in the league allowing 36.5%. The Nets lost James Harden in Game 1 but it didn’t seem to matter as KD and Kyrie carried the Nets to a solid win in the opener. These two teams are the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 120.1PPG (Bucks) and 118.6PPG (Nets) and this number suggests Vegas is telling us one of these two teams has to get to 120 to win. The math suggests both teams get to 120+ which means we cash the Over bet. |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - Though Saturday's game got away from them late in the game, the Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up this season including this playoff series too. Boston, prior to Game 4, had continued to dominate shots on goal statistically over the prior 6 meetings between these teams. Rather than lay a -185 price on the money line here, the best value is with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +150 range. Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals! The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high. The Bruins can take a 3-2 lead in this series by defending home ice and getting a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that in convincing fashion. Look for the Bruins to go up 3-2 in this series. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with home favorite Boston is the value play here. |
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06-06-21 | Astros +103 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-3 | Win | 103 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -100 over Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Astros are hitting .281 versus left-handed pitching this season and that is the best batting average in the majors against lefties. The Blue Jays are starting southpaw Steven Matz in this one and Toronto is 1-3 in his home starts this season. Matz has a 1.74 WHIP and a 5.22 ERA in games off a home mound this season. Matz did beat the Astros 4 weeks ago at Houston but was fortunate as he certainly did not dominate. Matz allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 5 innings. He will be no match for the Astros Luis Garcia in this one. Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 4 starts as he has rounded into top form. Garcia has held the opposition to a .188 batting average in his 16 appearances (10 starts) at the MLB level. The Astros are off a 6-2 loss here yesterday but had won 5 of 6 prior to that and this included a big 13 to 1 win in the first game of this series. The Blue Jays had lost 7 of 9 home games dating back to May 19th before coming up with the big win yesterday. Look for the Astros to bounce right back from yesterday's loss with a big win here. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a great price on the money line in this one and bet Houston -100 |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 220.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 1 PM ET - These same two teams met in late April and the oddsmakers set totals of 213 and then 224 in the most recent contest. The Hawks were without Trae Young and Boban Bogdanovic in the first game but Young played in the second, so the number was adjusted up drastically. Obviously, both will be in the lineup here but the 76ers may be without Embiid who is listed as questionable. Even without Embiid the 76ers put up 129 points against Washington in that series closeout game. Atlanta just held the Knicks to under 105 points in every game of their first round series, but the Knicks offense is horrible with the 8th worst offensive efficiency in the NBA. Philly is 13th in OEFF this season and average 113.6PPG while the Hawks put up 113.7PPG on the season. Scoring will come from beyond the 3-point line with both ranking in the top 12 in 3-point percentage shooting. We expect this series to start fast with plenty of scoring from both teams. This number is set slightly lower than an ‘average’ NBA game so bet the value and play Over. |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 239.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets, Game 1 Sat 7:35 PM ET - These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA, but we don’t think they’ll get to this number. The Bucks have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers this season and have been outstanding in the playoffs holding the Heat to 103 or less points (in regulation) in all four games. The Bucks defensive efficiency rating of .966-points per possession are beyond outstanding. Yes, that will get tested here by the dynamic Nets, but the Bucks can matchup with Brooklyn much better than other teams can. These two teams met in early May and Vegas set totals of 243 on those two games and James Harden wasn’t in the lineup. With Harden here the number is set 3 or 4 points lower, and more money is coming in on the Over, but the line is dropping. That’s a sure tell the smart money is coming in on the Under which is the way we’ll bet this opening round game. |
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06-05-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up. Boston continues to dominate shots on goal statistically over the last 6 meetings between these teams. Rather than lay a -150 price on the road here on the money line, the best value appears to be with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +190 range. Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals! The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high. The Bruins can put a stranglehold on this series with a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that here in convincing fashion. Look for the Bruins to go up 3-1 in this series. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with road favorite Boston is the huge value play here. |