ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 153, Butler vs UNC, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

Butler is a slow paced team and they know their best chance to win here is to keep this one a half-court game.  While UNC wants to run, the slower paced usually gets the tempo they want as long as they aren’t getting blown out.  That’s what we see happening here with Butler playing slow.  Another key to beating UNC is keeping them off the offensive boards.  Butler is a solid defensive rebounding team which will help (68th nationally) and our feel is they send everyone to the defensive boards to make sure UNC doesn’t dominate that aspect.  Doing that will also take away chances for Butler pushing the ball after a rebound as everyone will be at the rim.  Thus, they will most likely be walking the ball up after a defensive rebound.  If the Heels are forced to play in a half court game, they are not a great shooting team.  They rank 98th nationally in eFG% and that might be a bit skewed do to their offensive rebound put backs (basically many times turn into layups) and their points in transition – both should be limited here.  The Bulldogs had 3 top 30 offenses (efficiency wise) in the Big East (Villanova, Marquette, & Xavier) and not one of those teams top 80 points (in 7 games).  The Dogs held those opponents in their 7 match ups to an average of 69 PPG.  UNC is a top offense but this line (with total factored in) is calling for UNC to reach 80+ points.  We don’t think they will.  On the flip side, it calls for Butler to reach 73 points (or so) and we don’t think that happens either.  Butler is a solid shooting team but they are playing into the 19th most efficient defense in the nation.  If this total stays where it is, it will be tied for the highest total all year for Butler.  The other was vs Creighton early in the year with the Blue Jays were rolling and at full strength.  The two totaled 139 in that game staying 14+ points below the number.  In fact, Butler has topped 150 points (combined with opponent) just 6 times in 34 games this year.  This one stays UNDER.

ASA 3* PLAY UNDER 221 Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET.  We successfully played under in the Nets game last night and our  math model has put us on this under tonight. Quickly, comparing last night's Nets game with tonight's opponent, we see that Washington plays slower than Phoenix (Nets played last night) and are better defensively.  But yet the line on tonight's game is nearly the same. These same two teams just met in mid-February and combined for 224 in overtime. At the end of regulation the Nets and Wizards had combined for just 200 points in that game. As we mentioned last night, the Nets are playing much slower of late and it's led to 3 unders in their last four games. Last night they did put up 126 points but that was against a Suns team that is horrible defensively and they are a team that has quit on the season. Washington has a huge game on deck against the Cavs and play a tough stretch of games coming up so the last thing they'll want to do tonight is run-n-gun. When playing in Washington the Wizards, combined with their opponent, have topped 224 total points just two times in their last 13. Brooklyn games average 224PPG on the road this year, Washington home games average 215. Do the math! Both teams scoring and points allowed are trending down right now and we bet UNDER here!

We play UNDER 145 in the Xavier vs. Arizona game. Our math on this game suggests less than 140 total points and we'll be UNDER here. Pace of play has the biggest impact on this wager as we get two slower paced teams here with Arizona ranking 288th (of of 351) while Xavier is 245th. On average, Arizona takes 18.6 seconds to get a shot off which is 295th slowest, Xavier takes 17.6 seconds to shoot which is 211th. Xavier put  up some solid offensive numbers their last two games but it came against two defenses that were ranked 70th and 98th in defensive efficiency ratings. Arizona is 41st in DEFF and they play in the Big 12 which is 7th in efficiency ratings. The Musketeers put  up 91 points against Florida State the other night by shooting 55.6% from the field overall, 64.7% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are not normal considering Xavier shoots 45.8% overall and 34.9% from 3 on the season. In other words, expect a return to normal season averages tonight, especially against a Wildcat 'D' that allows just 41.8% from the field and 30.9% from the 3-point line. Arizona had a high scoring game against North Dakota but NDU is the 34th fastest paced team in college hoops. In Zona's game against St Mary's, the total ended with 129 total points  and St Mary's is 251st in pace which is similar to Xavier. We continue to monitor the number on this game which will trend up as the public bets over, then immediately bounce lower as the sharps bet under. Go with the smart money here! BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +3.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Zags did not look like a #1 seed over the first weekend.  They struggled with a South Dakota State team that finished tied for 4th in the Summit League and then had Northwestern on the ropes and let the Cats come back and nearly pull the upset.  We were on the Zags vs NW as we felt it was a perfect situation for them.  Coming off a bad first outing for a top rated seed usually leads to a much better effort in game 2.  They had a NW team that was simply happy to be in the Dance and off their first win ever in the NCAA tourney.  They jumped out to a 22 point lead which is exactly as we felt the game would play out early.  From that point on Gonzaga looked like an average team giving an OK, not great, Northwestern team a shot to win the game late.  Now they get a very tough match up in the Sweet 16.  WVU is a physical team that dominates the offensive boards (#6 nationally) and pressures offenses with waves of physically talented players.  They are #1 in the nation at creating turnovers and while the Zags season long stats indicate they don’t turn the ball over a lot, however they don’t see anything like this defense during the season.  In fact, 6 of their 9 opponents in the West Coast Conference rank 279th or lower in defensive turnover percentage.  Only one ranks in the top 100.  Now they face a team with better athletes than they are used to seeing that creates turnovers at the highest rate in the nation and plays in a much better conference (Big 12) while doing so.  WVU runs a pressure defense that’s almost impossible to duplicate in practice.   The Zags actually had more turnovers than assists in each of their first two NCAA games and those teams are nowhere near as good as West Virginia.  They also don’t see great offensive rebounding teams with only 1 WCC team (St Marys) ranked in the top 100 in that category.  Because of they often dominate the offensive glass and create turnovers, the Mountaineers often have more opportunities to score on the offensive end.  Just over the last 10 games they have attempted 77 more shots than their opponents and that’s mainly vs very good Big 12 opponents.  If they continue to shoot well (48% in first two NCAA games) they’ll be very tough to beat.  As we stated, the Zags struggle with teams that are FAR inferior to WVU and if they play like that again Thursday, they have no chance to win.  We like the dog here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

The Penguins are off of a win that clinched a playoff berth. The Pens could be flat here as they have a pair of divisional games on deck and then the top team out west (Chicago) on deck. Pittsburgh is also a banged up team and though they've won three straight games the wins have come against non-playoff teams. The Penguins schedule has truly been rather light recently and yet they've still only won 3 of the 5 games. Injuries have been an issue and now the Pens face a Senators team that is playing with some extra desperation as they need points considering they had a recent 0-2-2 skid and are in a battle in the Atlantic Division with Montreal and the Sens also have the Maple Leafs nipping at their heels. Unlike Pittsburgh, Ottawa has yet to clinch a playoff spot and, as a result, they'll be very hungry on home ice tonight. The Senators got back on track with a win at Boston Tuesday and they have won 17 of 28 games against teams with a winning record this season while the Pens are surprisingly a money loser (down 2.3 net games) when facing teams with a winning record this season. The Senators have won 49 of their last 83 home games with a total set at 5.5 goals. The Penguins have lost 36 of 61 road games with a total set at 5.5 goals. The home team has taken 6 of the last 8 meetings between these clubs. All things considered, we are confidently grabbing the generous underdog price with the home dog Senators on the money line in this one Thursday evening.

The value NBA Total bet tonight is UNDER in the Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets game. Our math model projects 218 total points in this game. The oddsmakers opened a number of 219.5 which has gone up dramatically to the current total. Obviously, there is tremendous value with the UNDER here. Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 107.1PPG but in their last five games they are averaging just 99.4PPG which is the 6th lowest average in the NBA. While their offensive numbers have been on a slide down hill, their defensive statistics have improved. On the season the Suns allow 1.116 points per possession (5th worst) but in their last five games they are giving up an average of 1.068PPP which is 12th best in the league. Phoenix has scored 103 or less points in 6 straight games. The Nets have had a few slower paced games and it looks like the wear and tear of the season is catching up with them, much like the Suns. The Nets are the fastest paced team in the league on the year with 101.1 possessions per game but in their last five games that average has dipped to 97 possessions which is 18th slowest. On the year the Nets have one of the three worst offenses in terms of offensive efficiency ratings and they've averaged just 99PPG their last three games. When the Suns have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219PPG while the Nets home games have averaged 215PPG. This is an easy call with the UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -3.5 over Illinois Chicago, Wednesday at 7:00PM ET

We’re definitely getting some line value here with CC.  The Chanticleers were just favored by 5.5 at home vs Loyola Maryland on Monday and now they are laying just 3.5 to UIC, two teams that are rated almost the same (Loyola 226th nationally & UIC 232nd).  The situation here also heavily favors Coastal as they were at home on Monday and at home again tonight.  UIC, on the other hand, has to travel for the first time in the CBI tourney.  The Flames also played at home on Monday and now having to travel and play 2 days later gives them very little time to prepare for CC.  On top of that, this post-season road situation is something nobody on UIC’s roster has ever been involved with.  This is the youngest team in the nation with 4 freshmen in the starting line up & none of the other Flames have ever played in the post-season before this year.  Coastal, on the other hand, is a veteran team (4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up) that has turned it on down the stretch winning 9 of their last 11 home games with their two losses each coming by 2 points.  CC has better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively.  They also finished 10-8 in the tougher Sun Belt compared to UIC’s 7-11 record in the lower rated Horizon.  This one sets up nicely and we’ll take Coastal Carolina to win and cover.

ASA PLAY OVER 207.5 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trailblazers 10PM ET. We have patiently watched this line drop all day as it opened at 214.5 and is now 207.5 which offers tremendous value with an OVER bet. When these two teams met earlier this year the oddsmakers posted a number of 215 which is where our  math model suggests this game will end up at. They combined for 222 in the earlier meeting and an easy over winner. Portland returns home tonight where they've combined with their opponents to scored more than tonight's total in 13 of their last 15. Milwaukee has gone under in several games of late but they also faced a few of the leagues better defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Tonight they face a Blazers team that is 27th in the NBA in DEFF, allowing 1.117 points per possession. When playing on the road this season the Bucks games have averaged 207PPG this season while the Blazers home games have averaged 219 total points. The last 13 times these two teams have met in Portland the over has cashed 9 times. The bet here is OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

While both are 2-0 in the NIT, the Ole Miss path has proven much more impressive.  The Rebs won both games on the road @ Monmouth, who was easily the best team in the Metro Atlantic this year, and then a win @ Syracuse, who many felt should have been in the Big Dance.  Now they are thrilled to finally get a home game and with a win they move to the NIT Final 4.  If Mississippi was able to beat two very solid opponents on the road, we’re confident they can get a win at home in this one.  Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has played both of their games at home getting wins over a disinterested Indiana team that has quit on the season and Belmont.  Now Tech must travel for the first time in this tourney and they were terrible on the road all season long.  The Jackets were 2-10 in road games this year losing by an average of 12 PPG.  This team leans heavily on their defense and their numbers on that end of the court dropped significantly away from home.  At home Tech allowed just 61 PPG and opponents shot under 40%.  On the road they gave up 76 PPG and teams shot 46% from the field.  A drastic difference to say the least.  If they can’t rely on their defense, this team is in trouble because they are not good offensively ranking nearly the bottom of college hoops in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and FT%.  Ole Miss was a potent offense at home averaging 80 PPG here.  We don’t think Tech can keep up and we’ll lay the number with Mississippi.

We will play OVER 192.5 in the Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET - We are betting a number here as the value lies with an over wager on this game. Our math model suggests 201.5 points in this contest which is drastically higher than the Vegas line. Remember, scoring is up this year in the NBA and the league is per game is 211PPG. The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league and yet they've had just 9 games in their last 51 with a posted total lower than tonight's number. Granted, the over is just 5-4 in those games but the point is Vegas doesn't typically post lines this low on games. As for the Pacers and Vegas Totals they have played 69 games this season and only TWO have had totals less than 200 points and both went over. These same two teams met in late January and the oddsmaker posted a number of 200.5 on that game and they combined for 209 points. Overall on the road this season the Jazz and their opponents are averaging 198PPG while the Pacers home games have averaged 208 total points per game. Utah is 15-10 to the over when the line is 194.5 or less. Over is 4-1 L5 Pacers games versus a team with a winning straight up record. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -4.5 over UCF, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

– ISU was easily the 2nd best team in the MVC all season long and not far behind Wichita State.  The Redbirds beat the Shockers by 14 on this court this season.  Speaking of this court, ISU is 16-0 this season at home and they have won 22 straight games at Redbird Arena.  All but 3 of those 22 wins have come by at least 5 points (tonight’s number is -4.5).  They whipped the top team in the Big West , Cal Irvine, here last week by 14 points.  UCF won their opener at home vs Colorado by 5 points in what was a great draw for the Knights.  Colorado was a veteran team that wasn’t thrilled to be in the NIT (their goal from day one was NCAA) and it was a long travel game for them – first time they’ve left the west coast this season.  We were on UCF in that game and picked up a win.  Now the Knights travel and they were less than impressive on the road this year.  They did win 4 AAC road games but those came against the bottom 4 teams in the league and 3 of the 4 wins were by 3 points or less.  They are not a great shooting team, especially on the road hitting only 40% of their shots, and they are facing a very good defense.  ISU is 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and at home they allow opponents to hit just 37%.  UCF is very solid defensively as well, but with ISU at home we think they’ll perform much better than UCF offensively.  Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +4 over UCLA, Sunday at 9:40 PM ET

We like looking at NCAA underdogs that have a big advantage defensively and we definitely have that here.  The Bearcats are the 11th most efficient defense in the nation and 8th best when it comes to eFG% defense.  UCLA ranks 83rd and 82nd in those 2 categories.  Is UCLA better offensively?  Sure they are but Cincy is no slouch this year coming in at 33rd nationally in offensive efficiency.  We like the fact the Bearcats are simply the tougher team here as well.  They’ll most likely win the battle of the boards and make this a grinder, half court type game.  We’re not sure this young UCLA team will thrive in a slower paced game and you can bet that’s what Cincy will do here.  There really isn’t a team in the Pac 12 that is a tough, slow paced team like the Bearcats so UCLA won’t be acclimated to playing against this style  This tough, experienced Cincinnati team (4 Juniors & Seniors in the starting line up) has lots of tourney game time under their belts.  They easily handled a solid Kansas State team in round one and we think they give UCLA fits here.  The line is also begging you to take UCLA in this game as Vegas set the number very low at -4 and it has dropped to -3.5 since.  With 70% of the bets coming in on the Bruins and they line dropping, that tells us most of the casual basketball bettors in Vegas this time of year are on UCLA while the people that bet heavier money and are doing this day in and day out are on the Bearcats.  Rumors of Alford heading to Indiana can’t help here either.  We think UCLA gets bounced here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -5 over Rhode Island, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET

URI is a solid team that plays very well on defense, however they don’t have enough offense to hang here.  The Rams picked up a great draw in their first game playing a Creighton team that in their current state, wasn’t even good enough to be in the tourney.  In fact, since the Blue Jays lost point guard Watson mid-season, they were just 7-9.  If it weren’t for their early season run with Watson in the line up, the Jays would not have been in the tourney.  Much is made of URI’s defense which is very good, however let’s not discount the Ducks defense.  They actually have better efficiency numbers than URI (Oregon 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency & URI 26th).  While the defenses will be comparable here, the Ducks offense is far superior.  Oregon is the 17th most efficient offense in the nation and their eFG% is 55.8% which is good for 15th.  Rhode Island’s eFG% ranks 175th and they are a bad 3-point shooting team (239th).  They also make just 66% of their free throws.  Speaking of FT’s, the Rams also send teams to the foul line A LOT (19th most in the nation) while the Ducks foul very infrequently sending teams to the line 16th least in the country.  The Rams have played just 7 teams this year that made the tourney and were just 3-4 in those games.  They are also very new to this gig having not been in the Dance since 1999.  Oregon, on the other hand, is a veteran team that was one win away from the Final 4 last year.  They are experienced in this spot and on a mission. Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -11 over Northwestern, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET

The Zags played one of their worst games of the season on Thursday and still beat South Dakota State by 20 points.  They shot just 39% (their season average is 51%), 26% from 3 (season average is 38%) and they made just 8 of 18 from the FT line.  You can bet after this team has been questioned as a #1 seed, they will play MUCH better on Saturday.  Northwestern, on the other hand, has probably already accomplished all they could have hoped for.  After making the Dance for the first time ever, they were a bit fortunate on Thursday when Vandy held a 1-point lead late and intentionally fouled NW thinking they were down 1.  The Cats now have an NCAA appearance and an NCAA win on a down to the wire game so this one could be tough.  We feel this game is very similar to their Big Ten tourney game vs Wisconsin.  They came into that game having beaten Maryland to pretty much lock in their first NCAA tourney invite only to turn around and get crushed by the Badgers the following day.  NW scored just 48 points in that game.  This team can struggle offensively as they are just the 203rd best shooting team in the nation and they’ve been held under 70 points in 12 of their last 14 games.  That won’t change here facing Gonzaga who rates as the #1 defensive efficiency team in the nation.  As bad as they were offensively on Thursday, the Zags still held South Dakota State, a team that was regularly scoring 80+ points per game, to just 48.  They have held 15 of their last 21 opponents to 61 points or less.  We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them hold Northwestern under 60 here.  Add that to a motivated offense that will play much better on Saturday and the makings of a blowout are in order.  Lastly, this game also falls into a very strong NCAA round 2 system of ours that has covered 13 of the last 16 times it’s applied (81%) and we side with Gonzaga as a Top Game here.

PLAY OVER in the Marquette vs South Carolina game. The opening number on this game was 148 but has since been bet down to the current total of 141.5 and now the price is right for an OVER wager. Marquette is the 7th most efficient offense in the entire nation averaging 1.210 points per possession. They are 6th in eFG% at 57.6% and the #1 3-point shooting team in all college hoops. The Golden Eagles average possession length is 16.3 seconds which ranks 73rd overall in the county. Now the reason this line is low and has been bet down is because of South Carolina's poor offense. They are a bad shooting team at 46.7 eFG5 which is 316th in the nation BUT they are around average in pace of play and above average in average possession length at 16.6 seconds offensively. Where the Gamecocks will get their points is on the offensive glass where a small Marquette lineup will have a hard time blocking out. SC is the 44th best offensive rebounding team in the nation and even bad shooting teams can make layups. Two teams in the SEC that are very similar in raw statistics to Marquette are Arkansas and Auburn and when South Carolina played those two teams they combined for 167 and 159 total points. The value bet here is OVER the total!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Troy +20 over Duke, Friday at 7:20 PM T

We look for Duke to play a “ho-hum” type game in the opening round vs Troy.  The Devils expended a ton of energy last weekend winning the ACC tourney beating Clemson, Louisville, UNC, and Notre Dame in 4 days.  They are bound to have an emotional letdown after that one especially against a no name opponent like Troy.  The Trojans are a dangerous team that is very athletic.  Duke will not “out athlete” Troy in this one.  They are a solid offensive team (51% eFG%) with experienced guards that can shoot the 3.  The Trojans have 3 players in their starting lineup that hit at least 38% from deep and 4 of their 5 starters are upperclassmen.  Defensively they aren’t great but not terrible either.  As we stated they will match up athletically with Duke on the defensive end.  They played USC to the wire on the road this year and the one NCAA caliber team in the Sun Belt besides Troy was UT Arlington and they split with them this year.  Duke is a bit banged up with Jefferson & Allen not at 100%.  You can bet Krzyzewski wants to get through this game and move on.  They don’t need a blowout here and we’re not sure they could pull that off even if they wanted to.  Sun Belt entries have taken much higher seeds to the wire each of the last two NCAA tourneys and we think it may happen again.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -22.5 over UC Davis, Friday at 6:50 PM ET

UC Davis ranks as THE WORST team in the field coming in at #216 in the Ken Pom rankings.  They played ONE, yes ONE, top 100 team all season long and that was a 25 point loss to California who didn’t even make the tourney.  Even with the weak schedule (300th SOS), the Aggies were a terrible offensive team this season.  For the season UCD ranks 291st in offensive efficiency, 240th in eFG%, and shoot just 66% from the FT line.  They have gone 7 consecutive games without reaching 70 points on offense and those were all vs opponents ranked 137th or lower.  On top of that, this is a terrible spot for them after playing a tough down to the wire game on Wednesday night in Dayton they now play #1 seed Kansas in Tulsa just 2 days later.  KU will be motivated here.  They were taken out in the first game of the Big 12 tourney by TCU so they come in wanting to right that wrong.  It was really a blessing in disguise as that loss was last Thursday so the Jayhawks have now had more than a week off to rest up, prepare and get ready for the Dance.  Soon to be top 10 draft pick and one of the best players in the nation, Josh Jackson, was suspended for KU’s loss to TCU but returns here.  Unlike UC Davis, Kansas has played only 3 teams all season long ranked below 200.  All three of those opponents were ranked in a similar range to Davis (219th, 224th, and 249th) and KU destroyed all 3 teams 31, 30, and 18 points.  KU can name the score here and with them being extra motivated coming in off a loss, we think they don’t let up.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 152, Iona vs Oregon, Friday at 2:00 PM ET

Iona is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and they shoot the ball very well.  They are the 16th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and they hit 77% of their FT’s.  Defensively they won’t scare anyone.  They rank 203rd nationally in defensive efficiency and in their 3 games vs NCAA tourney teams this year they allowed 99, 91, and 75 points.  The Ducks should be able to take advantage of that as they rank 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency and hit 80 or more points 12 times in Pac 12 play.  To put that in perspective, only 4 Pac 12 teams rank lower than 112th in defensive efficiency so they put up points facing much better defenses for the most part.  Iona has scored at least 80 points in 17 of their last 27 games.  Oregon can play any pace and with Iona wanting to push we think the Ducks will be fine with that.  High scoring here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +12.5 over Baylor, Friday at 12:40 PM ET

This total is set fairly at just 134 so a low scoring game is expected.  Baylor leans heavily on their defense and they can struggle at times offensively.  When they win, they don’t win big very often.  In fact, of their last 12 wins, 11 have come by less than 12 points.  One thing the Bears rely on is getting extra offensive opportunities by controlling the boards.  That shouldn’t happen here as NMSU is a very solid rebounding team (18th nationally in offensive rebounding).  The Aggies are a veteran team that is used to being in this environment.  They have now been in the Big Dance 5 of the last 6 seasons.  They have a solid backcourt (Taylor, Baker & Huggins) that have been logged a lot of minutes and won a lot of games over the last 2 to 3 seasons.  This isn’t a flash in the pan type program at New Mexico State.  This is the 6th straight year they’ve won at least 23 games.  Their conference, the WAC, looks better than most may have anticipated based on early post-season results.  Cal State Bakersfield, the team NMSU beat in the WAC final by 10, just went to Cal and won in the NIT.  UMKC beat UW Green Bay in the NIT and Utah Valley won @ Georgia Southern in the CBI.  Baylor is not a good 3-point shooting team and the NMSU defense ranks 8th nationally at defending the arc so we don’t expect much from deep from the Bears here.  They’ll have to grind this one out inside the arc making it tough to pull away against a solid opponent.  We think the Aggies match up very well here and we’ll take the points.

10* Los Angeles Kings Puck Line -1.5 goals: The Sabres have lost 9 of their last 11 games but they haven't faced the Kings since mid-December and that was a big 6-3 win for Buffalo. You know the Kings will be looking for payback here and what has intensified the situation is the fact that Los Angeles is off of back to back losses and playing their final home game for the next 7 days. After this game the Kings will be heading to Western Canada for a two-game road trip and they won't be on home ice again until next Thursday. This means there is no doubt that LA will have supreme focus for this game and the home team has won the last two games between these clubs by a combined score of 8 to 3. The Kings average margin of victory in their last 13 games is 2.2 goals. The Sabres average margin of defeat in their last 11 losses is 2 goals. With Buffalo in the middle of a tough road trip out west and Los Angeles looking to respond after an embarrassing home loss versus Arizona, this one should easily be decided by a multiple goal margin. LA finds itself in a fierce fight for the final playoff spot out west while the Sabres run of 9 losses in their last 11 games has dashed any glimmering hopes about making the playoffs for this season. Off of back to back losses and playing this game with revenge, look for the Kings to respond with a huge effort tonight and win this one by a multiple goal margin.

ASA 10* PLAY ON St Mary's -4 over VCU, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET

Really like the situation for St Mary’s here.  They’ve been off since March 7th after losing to Gonzaga in the WCC final.  VCU, on the other hand, just finished 3 games in 3 days on Sunday losing to URI in the A10 Final and now must play out west (game is in Salt Lake City) just a few days later.  The Gaels are under rated in our opinion.  They are one of the most balanced teams in the nation ranking in the top 26 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball as well as any team in the nation ranking 14th nationally in 3 point FG% and 8th nationally in FG% inside the arc.  They have just 4 losses on the season and 3 of them came at the hands of #1 seed Gonzaga.  VCU is a team that likes to up tempo if possible so look for STM to frustrate them as they play with the 2nd slowest tempo in the nation.  VCU is just an OK shooting team that really struggles from beyond the arc (241st nationally in 3 point %).  They won’t get many 2nd chances here as the Gaels are the #1 defensive rebounding team in the nation.  We’ll side with the MUCH better shooting team (and better numbers defensively as well for that matter) in a very good scheduling situation.  St Marys rolls here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 156 - South Dakota State vs Gonzaga, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET

Tonight we play OVER in the South Dakota St vs Gonzaga game. As you already know we've been dialed in on college totals this month and this is a great match up for an OVER wager. Both teams want to play fast and score points in a hurry. South Dakota St comes from the Summit League which is the fastest paced, has the highest offensive efficiency rating and the #1 ranked eFG% conference in all of college basketball. South Dakota St was the 7th fastest paced team in the league at 70.5 possession per game but was also the most efficient at 1.162 points per possession in conference play. They were also the 2nd most efficient shooting team in the league with an eFG% of 56.9% As good as the conference was offensively, it was just as bad defensively. Not one team allowed less than 1.000 points per possession in conference play this season and SDST gave up 1.121PPP which was 308th out of 351 schools. Again, the Jack Rabbits were solid offensively though, ranking 62nd nationally in OEFF at 1.108PPP. The second part of this equation is of course Gonzaga. The Zags have the 10th most efficient offensive in college hoops at 1.207 points per possession and are the 72nd fastest paced team. Their average length of a possession is just 15.7 seconds which is 33rd in the nation. They shoot it extremely well too by hitting 38.2% (45th) of their 3-point attempts and 58.4% (4th) of their 2’s. Gonzaga has the 2nd best eFG% percentage in college hoops at 58%. Earlier this season the Zags played South Dakota who is eerily similar to South Dakota State and that game ended 102-65 in Gonzaga’s favor. Gonzaga has scored 90+ points in 5 of their last 12 games and last year they put up 90+ in the opening round of the tourney so we know they won’t be shy here. Plenty of points here by both! OVER is the bet!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Georgia Tech +3 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9:00 PM on ESPN

Can’t imagine IU is all that excited about being here.  They had high hopes to start the season and actually topped the likes of UNC and Kansas in the first month of the season.  Their high hopes came crashing down with a 7-11 Big Ten record and now a team that had big time NCAA aspirations, not just getting there but making a run, is stuck in the NIT.  The Hoosiers were offered to host this game but declined due to renovations going on at Assembly Hall.  You can bet Georgia Tech is thrilled to host a blue blood program like Indiana.  The Jackets are no slouch as they played in the toughest conference in America and finished 7-2 at home in ACC beating the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, Florida State, and Syracuse.  They face an IU team that is just 2-8 this year on the road with those wins coming by 4 @ Ohio State and by 3 @ Penn State.  The Hoosiers offense can be potent but they are facing the 7th most efficient defense in the nation here.  By comparison, the most comparable team in the Big Ten when it comes to defensive efficiency would be Wisconsin who ranks 8th nationally.  The Badgers held Indiana to 60, 60, and 68 points in their 3 meetings.  We think Tech does the same tonight and they pick up a home win.  Not sure Indiana should even be favored in this one. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Monmouth -3 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

Monmouth was the best team in the MEAC all season long but lost in the conference tourney to drop to the NIT.  The Hawks finished the conference with a record of 18-2 which was a full 4 games ahead of 2nd place St Peters.  They finished 27-6 and their only non-conference losses came at North Carolina, at Syracuse, and at South Carolina (in OT).  They beat two top 100 teams in the non-conference slate topping Memphis on the road and beating NCAA bound Princeton.  That win over Princeton on December 20th was actually the last time Princeton lost as the Tigers have won 19 straight since.  Monmouth is a team that is very solid on both sides of the ball (89th in offensive efficiency and 85th in defensive efficiency), they don’t turn the ball over, they shoot it very well from 3, and they make FT’s.  Ole Miss has to be a bit disappointed they have to travel to a game like this to open the NIT.  They were hoping for a home game.  Getting to Monmouth (in New Jersey) could  pose all kinds of problems for the Rebs as well with the huge winter storm hitting the east coast.  The Rebels are not a great shooting team and on the road they really bottomed out hitting just 39% of their shots.  This is a HUGE home game for Monmouth as they rarely host a big conference opponent.  The last “big name” opponent the Hawks were able to host was back in 2015 when they faced off against in-state big boy Rutgers and lost by 1 point.  Monmouth has won 24 of their last 27 home games and they get the win and cover here against what could be a disinterested Ole Miss team. 

ASA PLAY  ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. 

We will play UNDER 159 in the Marshall versus Middle Tennessee State game at 8:30PM ET tonight. We love this spot as several dynamics clearly favor a lower scoring game in this Conference USA championship game. Everyone knows about Marshall's game yesterday where they 'went off' from beyond the arc making 19 of 35 3-pointers against LA Tech. At halftime in that game Marshall scored 49 points and 42 came from 3. With this being their 4th game in four days, and four starters logging over 35 minutes yesterday, (3 had 33+ minutes the day before) we don't expect jumpers to be falling for the Herd against Middle Tennessee State today. Not to mention they WON'T get any second chance baskets as MTSU will DOMINATE the glass as they did in the two regular season meetings (+34 rebounds ). The Blue Raiders are also the 53rd best 3-point field goal percentage defense in the entire nation so Marshall isn't going 'off' from beyond the arc. In the two regular season meetings they held Marshall to just 295 and 26% shooting from 3. Middle Tennessee State is 1st in C-USA in defensive efficiency defense allowing just. 937 points per possession this year and 2nd in eFG% D at 46.6%. MTSU also knows they need to dictate the tempo in this game and the dominate team normally gets their way. The Blue Raiders are the 13th slowest team in the conference and 325th in the nation.  In the two meetings this season the oddsmakers posted totals of 158 and 164.5 so we are still getting value at the current price even though the line has dropped.  Our math model suggests just 150 total points in this contest and we agree whole heartedly! 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 6 PM ET

This is a tough situation for CSU.  One of the thinnest teams in the nation playing only 7 players for the most part, the Rams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days.  On top of that, they got the late game last night vs San Diego State.  Their game didn’t start until 10 PM Pacific time and didn’t get over until after midnight.  That means they probably didn’t get back to their hotel and settled down after a big win until 2 AM or later.  Now they play today at 3 PM Pacific time making this a very rough spot for them.  Nevada won the early game vs Fresno and had time to wind down and settle in much earlier.  The Wolfpack have been the best team in the conference pretty much all year.  They rank #1 in the MWC in offensive efficiency, #2 in defensive efficiency, #2 in offensive turnover %, #1 in defensive rebounding, #1 defending the 3, and #1 in steals.  These two met a week ago in a game that decided the regular season title and Nevada won by 13.  Now with CSU in a much more precarious spot today, we look for another easy win by Nevada.

PLAY OVER 123 in the Alabama vs. South Carolina game today. The SEC is the 7th fastest paced conference in the nation and games average 147.3PPG which is substantially higher than this number. Our computer projections on this game is drastically higher than the Vegas number and we feel these two teams will combine for 135 or more points in this contest. In the only other meeting this season these two team totaled 176 points BUT that was in overtime. At the end of regulation though they had combined for just 114 total points which clearly would be under today's number. But South Carolina, who is not a good shooting team, hit just 26% in that game which is drastically lower than their season average of 41%. Games involving the Gamecocks when they are on the road have averaged 138PPG while games with Bama as the visitor have totaled 135PPG. Both of those number clearly higher than today's total set by the oddsmakers.  If you've been following our successful O/U wagers you know we are high on 'value' and it's interesting to note that in a combined 62 games for these two teams, this is the lowest number posted by Vegas in any game this season. Bet OVER!

ASA PLAY ON: Texas State (-4.5) over UL Monroe, 3PM ET - We love this spot for several reasons including: Texas State is rested while UL Monroe is coming off an OT win over Arkansas State on Wednesday as a sizeable underdog. In fact, ULM was +7 in that game and Texas State in our opinion is slightly better than Arkansas State, and they're laying just -4.5-points in this game. Plus, Texas State was just a -2.5-point favorite at ULM in the final regular season game which means they should be -7 or more here. Texas State beat ULM on March 4th in a meaningless game for them and played their entire roster extended minutes. When we look at TXST's most recent road contests we see they came against 4 of the best teams in the Sun Belt so their most recent road struggles aren't the best barometer considering they are playing the last place team in the conference today. When we look at both teams road records (this game is on a neutral court so essentially a road venue for both) we find ULM had an average negative differential of nearly 12PPG. Texas State was much better away from home with a negative differential of -5PPG. UL Monroe is just 3-16 SU their last 19 games overall and are off a huge upset. Looks like a return to Earth today against a solid Texas State team that has covered 5 straight as a chalk. Lay the points! 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 125, Notre Dame vs Virginia, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET

We took OVER in the UVA-Pitt game last night and it easily eclipsed 117 as the two combined for 138 points.  Now we get a much better offense with Notre Dame (17th in the nation in offensive efficiency) as compared to yesterday’s opponent (Pitt) and the number still sits in the low 120’s.  Our math model predicts 133 which gives us nearly 10 points of value here.  These two met once this season and the total on that game was set at 129.5 with UVA winning 71-54 (125 total points).  The normally fine shooting Irish made just 41% of their shots overall and worse yet, only 3 of 18 from beyond the arc (16%).  It was their lowest offensive output of the season and in fact the only time this year ND was held under 60 points.  On the other end of the court, the ND defense, which is middle of the pack in the ACC in efficiency, has not held one team under 60 points in ACC play this year.  That would lead us to believe that both teams get to at least the 60’s here which would mean a very strong likelihood this one goes OVER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 122.5, Rutgers vs Northwestern, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

Big value here on the OVER according to our numbers.  Our math model as this one set at 131.5 which is an 8.5 point advantage.  Looking at the two meetings this year, the oddsmakers set totals of 132 and 131 on those games and now we sit in the low 120’s.  In one meeting the two teams combined for 134 points and 129 in the other.  That obviously means both eclipsed this number, and fairly easily.  The stats in those games were far from impressive as the two teams combined to shoot only 39% and just 22% from beyond the arc (both games combined).  Yesterday Rutgers faced off against Ohio State and the two totaled 123 (right at this number) despite shooting terribly at 38% and missing 19 FT’s.  The Scarlet Knights have combined with their opponent to score less than 123 points just 4 times in their 19 Big Ten games.  NW combined with their Big Ten opponents to score less than 123 just 2 times in 18 games.  This one has been adjusted too far and we grab the OVER.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Arizona Coyotes vs Ottawa Senators, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET

Ottawa is off of a big win at Dallas last night and has been rolling as they picked up another win, 5-2, over the Stars. The Senators now are in a back to back spot for the 10th time this season and, in the 2nd game of a back to back, they have gone 6-3 to the over this season. Speaking of 6-3 to the over, the Coyotes were 6-3-1 to the over in their last 10 games before a 2-1 home loss to Carolina Sunday. Arizona, even though their season has long been over in terms of playoff hopes, had been soring better prior to the loss to the Canes. The Coyotes had won 10 of their last 19 games and averaged 3.1 goals per game prior to the loss to the Hurricanes. 7 of the Coyotes last 10 games against teams with a winning record have ended up going over the total. It's because Arizona has been working hard to play the role of spoiler and they should see some open ice tonight against a tired Sens team coming off of a big win. 4 of the last 5 meetings have gone over the total and the last 2 match-ups have totaled 18 goals. We see don't see any reason to believe that tonight's game will play out much differently. Good value on the over 5.5 at plus juice! Bet the OVER in Arizona in this late evening match-up out west Thursday

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 139 Montana vs Idaho game. Let’s start with the facts that the Big Sky games this year have averaged 150 total points per game and every team averages more than 1.000 points per possession AND allow more than a point per possession. The Big Sky is also the 10th fastest paced conference in the nation which means more scoring opportunities. In their two meetings, this season both games finished UNDER the total but current trends tell us this will be a higher scoring game. When playing on the road this season (better indicator for tourney games), Montana and Idaho games have averaged 147 total points per game. In their most recent games, Montana is averaging 154 total points per game and Idaho is averaging 149. These two teams have favored the OVER all season long in conference play with a combined record of 20-15. Our math model projects 147.5 total points for this game and we couldn’t agree more!

ASA PLAY OVER 129 Texas San Antonio vs Middle Tennessee State, 12:30PM ET – This will be a tougher wager to make but the averages and computer math model projects a total on this game of 135 which is 6 full points higher than the Vegas number. Again, our math model continues to predict O/U’s at a ridiculous rate and we won’t buck the system here. In the lone meeting this season these two combined for 128 total points but Middle Tennessee State was coming off a HUGE conference win and simply played down to a bad UTSA teams level. This is playoff basketball and a rested MTSU team, which is the best in the conference, is going to motivated and focused here. Even though UTSA can struggle offensively at times, their games have finished with more total points than today’s number in 7 of their last 8. On the road this season UTSA games have averaged 139 total points while MTSU road games averaged that same 139PPG.  In their last five games these two teams are averaging 132 (UTSA) and 146 (MTSU) total points per game. Middle Tennessee State is the most efficient offense in C-USA AT 1.113 points per possession which is also one of the better numbers in the entire country. Conference USA games average over 142PPG on the season and we feel these two teams get to the 139 range and an EASY OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +5 over Michigan, Thursday at 12 PM ET

Bad situation yesterday for the Wolverines.  Their plane ran off the runway and takeoff yesterday afternoon and the team was not able to make it to DC until this morning.  After that scare and showing up here a few hours before game time, we have to side with Illinois getting points in this one.   The Illini played their best basketball at the end of the year winning 5 of 6 to put @ Rutgers now making this a must win.  Illini head coach John Groce stated that his team played the best basketball since he’s been here over their final 6 or 7 games.  The defense was key as they held 7 of their final 9 opponents under 70 points.  That gives them an edge on that end of the court facing a Michigan team that ranks 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% defense. Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer with 38% of their points in conference play coming from deep (most in the Big Ten).  We don’t like backing teams that rely that heavily on the outside shot at a neutral venue they’ve never played at.  These two met twice this year with the home team winning each – Illinois with a 17 point win at home and Michigan with a 9 point win at home.  We think this one will be nip and tuck the entire way so we take the points with Illinois here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 116, Pittsburgh vs Virginia, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

These two just met in Virginia on Saturday and the total was set at 122.  Thus, just based on that, we’re looking at a 6 point value here.  Our math model sits at 130 for this one so a full 14 point advantage to the OVER.  A heavy part of the reasoning for this total sitting so low is the result from last Saturday.  UVA won that game 67-42 so 109 total points were scored.  The Panthers made only 15 of their 45 shots (33%) including just 4 of 20 from beyond the arc (20%).  UVA was nothing special at 42% for the game.  On top of that, the two combined to attempt only 10 FT’s in the entire game.  They made all 10 but 10 made FT’s in a game is extremely low.  However, despite all of that these two still reached 109 points which isn’t all that far off this number.  Pitt scored just 15 points in the first half of that game but seemed to get it together a bit in the 2nd half with 27 so expect a carryover here and a much better offensive performance.  Let’s also not forget when these two met the first time this season, they put up 138 points in regulation (Pitt won in OT).  UVA’s defense is well known, however they are MUCH better at home than they are on the road.  At home they allow just 54 PPG on 39% shooting and on the road they give up 63 PPG on 43% shooting.  If Pitt would have had this total (currently 116) set for every game this year, they would have gone under only twice with 29 overs.  Even UVA would be sitting at 18 overs and 12 unders if all of their totals were set at 116.  This total has been over adjusted too far and we grab the OVER.

PLAY ON: #719/720 OVER 139 IDAHO STATE vs SACRAMENTO STATE, 8:30PM ET - This is clearly one of our computer plays and based on value and year long, in conference statistics. When these two teams met earlier this year the Vegas Total was set at 146 and this line opened 143 before dropping to 139. That's a full 7 points of value compared to the earlier meeting! Our math on this game suggests 148 total points and we couldn't agree more with it. The Big Sky league average is 150PPG. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the entire country in defensive efficiency ratings as Idaho State allows 1.119PPP (339th) while Sacramento State allows 1.118PPP which is 338th out of 351 D1 schools.  Easy OVER call here.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 133, UW Milwaukee vs Northern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This total opened 136.5 and has dropped to 133 and we’re jumping on the value here.  Our math model has this one at 144 so now we’re getting double digit value to the OVER.  We have two of the better shooting teams in the Horizon facing off in this one.  N Kentucky is the #1 eFG% team in the conference and UWM is 3rd.  Both also rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency.  For the season NKU is averaging 75 PPG but they’ve really turned it up as of late averaging 84 PPG over their last 5.  The Norse have scored 84 & 82 points in their two Horizon League tourney games.  Milwaukee has put up 70 PPG over their last 5 and that includes an offensive stinker in the 2nd game of this tourney when they beat Valpo 43-41.  Throw that game out the window as Valpo played without their leading scorer and conference player of the year (Peters) which took a big portion of their offense out of the lineup.  The two teams were also both had a horrendous shooting night combining to make only 31 shots the entire game (32% from the field).  They also made just 9 of 39 combined from beyond the arc.  Just one of those games.  In their other two games in the tourney UWM put up 85 & 74 points.  When these two met this year they had lower scoring games with the combined numbers at 132 & 126.  That, however, sets this total up too low with how these offenses are playing now.  Also with UWM playing their 4th game in 5 nights and NKU playing their 3rd straight night, the defenses could tire here.  Finally, with an NCAA tourney bid on the line, there will be no “give up” in this one so their will most likely be some scrambling and fouling late depending on the score.  We like the OVER here.

We are going to play UNDER in the Central Michigan versus Kent State game. Our Math Model suggests a total output on this game of 160 which is well below the opening total set on this game of 170.5. Since the line came out this game has been bet down to 166.5 but there is still value in the number per our computers. CMU just played Western Michigan who is a more efficient offense compared to Kent and worse defensively and CMU/WMU scored 168 total points which is barely more than tonight’s number. Kent is the 4th most efficient defense in the MAC and they’ve held 5 straight opponents to less than 70 points. In that 5 games run the Zips held the MAC’s #1 offensive efficiency team, Akron, to 66 and 67 points in two games. Granted Central Michigan’s defense hasn’t been good this season and especially poor lately but in their last five game, four team have been better than Kent’s which is 9th in the MAC in OEFF and 10th in eFG% shooting just 48.3%. In the lone meeting, earlier this season between these two teams they combined for 203 total points by 35 game in OT. With the pressure of the tourney on both teams we don’t see them getting near that number today. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 137, UNC Greensboro vs East Tennessee State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Our math model, which has been very successful on college totals down the stretch, has this one pegged at 147 so a double digit advantage for the OVER here.  These two met twice this year with the totals set at 144 & 145 which is well above where this one is set.  The two meetings ended with final scores of 83-79 (162 points) and 72-66 (138 points).  In the game that reached 162 points, both teams shot well hitting right around 50% of their shots.  However, in the game that made it to 138, which would go OVER the current number, that was not the case.  In that game the two teams combined to make only 42% of their shots and 35% of their 3’s.  Nothing fantastic there and the still nearly hit 140.  UNCG and ETSU are two of the faster paced teams in the Southern Conference (2nd and 3rd in tempo) and they both shoot the ball well (2nd and 3rd in conference eFG%).  In conference play, including the Southern Tourney thus far, ETSU has reached at least 70 points in 15 of their 20 games (75%).  UNCG has gotten to at least 70 points in 16 of their 20 games (80%).  If both get to 70, this one goes OVER.  We think they do.  Take the value with the OVER in this one.

The analytics on the South Dakota vs. South Dakota State says bet OVER 152 and we couldn't agree more. The Summit is one of the faster paced, higher scoring conferences in the country and not known for their defense. Summit league games this year have averaged 159.3PPG and today we have a total set that is less than 'average'. South Dakota has the best DEFF in the conference play, allowing 1.029 points per possession but their overall defensive efficiency rating is 156th in the nation or not very good. South Dakota State is 7th in the Summit in DEFF in conference play and 329th (out of 352) in the nation in DEFF allowing 1.096PPP. On the other side of the ball, South Dakota State has the 52nd best offensive efficiency rating in all of college basketball this season at 1.078PPP and in just conference play that number improves to 1.162PPP. South Dakota is 7th in the Summit in OEFF, which doesn't sound great, but they are 127th in the country overall at 1.035PPP which is good. These same two teams just met in late February and combined for 180 total points and Vegas has adjusted this number down on this game compared to the earlier meeting. In their last five games SDST and their opponents are averaging 164 total points. In that same 5 game span, SDAK, combined with their foe is averaging 168 total points.  Combined these two are 19-5 OVER run in Summit league play. 

TOP TOTAL - OVER Denver vs South Dakota State, 7pm ET - Based on our analytics the total points scored in this game will be 159 which is well above the posted total. In both teams last five games they've been shooting the ball exceptionally well as Denver, as a team, is hitting nearly 47% from the field while South Dakota State is shooting 50%. On the other end of the court neither team has played much defense lately either. Denver has allowed foes to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts while SDST has allowed opponents to make 47%. The last game these two teams played was against each other on this same court Feb 25th and that game had a total of 154.5 on the game and they combined for 152 total points. Denver has the 3rd best eFG% in the Summit at 55.5% and South Dakota State has the 3rd worst efficiency defense in the conference but yet Denver scored just 64 points (10 less than season average) on 41% shooting. Denver has played OVER the total in 17 of their last 22 Summit league games while SDST is on a 10-4 OVER run in conference games. Let's not forget the league average for Summit league games this year is 159.3PPG. Bet OVER! 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

Wisky continues to get the respect of oddsmakers despite losing 5 of their last 6.  This team is struggling right now.  They led Iowa by 9 on Thursday with just over 3:00 remaining in the game and what would normally be an absolute win for Wisky in that spot turned into a 2 point loss.  They are a bad FT shooting team (just 5 of 14 vs Iowa) and something is off with this team right now.  Can they right the ship on Senior night?  Possibly but even if they do get a win, we expect it to be a close game.  The Gophs are the hottest team in the Big Ten right now winning 8 straight games including 4 straight on the road.  Minny has lost 6 straight to Wisconsin and they have revenge here after losing at home in OT in January 78-76.  The Badgers were playing very well at that time and still needed OT to win the game.  That isn’t the case anymore.  The Gophs have covered 7 of their last 8 while the Badgers have lost 7 of 8 to the number.  Can Wisconsin keep up here?  Minnesota’s offense is averaging 83 PPG over their last 5 while UW is putting up just 66 PPG.  Wisconsin may win this, although we’re not so sure, but even if they do we expect it to go to the wire.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road).  On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +3.5 over Purdue, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

The Boilers have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They clinched the outright Big Ten title on Thursday night when Wisconsin lost at home to Iowa.  Most of the PU players were gathered together watching Iowa hit a 3 pointer with 9 seconds left to beat the Badgers by 2.  Word is the room erupted as the Boilermakers accomplished their goal of winning the Big Ten.  Now traveling to NW, a team they beat by 20+ earlier this year, might be a tough spot for this Purdue team to bring their best.  Not to mention PU is a MUCH better team at home than they are on the road.  They are just 5-4 this year in true road games with 4 of those wins coming by margins of 1, 1, 4 and 5 points.  This is Northwestern’s final home game and while their win earlier this week vs Michigan may have pushed them into the Big Dance for the first time ever, it’s not a 100% lock quite yet.  A win here over Purdue would guarantee an NCAA tourney bid.  The Cats will also have some extra motivation here after playing one of their worst games of the year @ Purdue losing 80-59.  NW shot just 35% in that game and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts.  The Boilers made 52% from beyond the arc in that win.  NW also played that game without one of their top players Lindsay who has since returned.  We like NW to win this game outright at home on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 147.5, North Dakota State vs IUPUI, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

Our computer math model, which has been extremely accurate with college totals over the last month or so, predicts 155 on this game so we’ll go OVER.  These two met twice this season with the two teams totaling 182 & 167, albeit the 2nd one was in overtime.  The Summit League is not known for their defensive prowess as league games average 159 PPG this year.  Both are solid shooting teams and IUPUI puts up 78 PPG while NDSU averages 76 PPG.  IUPUI’s defense allows the highest shooting % in the Summit at 47.3%.  They allowed over 80 points in more than half of their conference games this year (9 of 17).  While NDSU did play solid defense at times this year, when they faced the top scoring offenses in the league, they nearly all led to high scoring games.  When facing IUPUI, IPFW, and Nebraska Omaha (6 games vs these opponents), the 3 top scoring teams in the conference, only once did a game end under 150 points.  These teams have played to the OVER all season long combining for a 36-14 OVER record.  This one is set too low and we like another high scoring affair.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +8 over Louisville, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on CBS

Louisville went through a stretch mid-season where they were throttling teams.  That red hot stretch ended in early February and now this team simply isn’t playing all that well.  They are 4-3 their last 7 games and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 5 points or fewer.  This Cardinal team needs to create turnovers for their offense to flow as they are simply not a great shooting team ranking 138th in eFG%.  The Irish are not a great match up for this team.  That’s because they don’t turn the ball over.  ND gives the ball away just 14% of the time which is the 3rd best mark in the nation.  They are always a dangerous underdog because they shoot the ball so well (36th nationally in eFG%) and they make their FT’s (81% for #1 in the nation).  Notre Dame hit a slow streak in late January but have since ripped off 6 consecutive wins.  They beat Louisville 77-70 earlier this year and had only 12 turnovers in the game.  Again, that’s the recipe for beating U of L and the Irish do it as well as anyone.  The Irish have lost only 2 games this year by more than 8 points (where this spread currently stands) and even if they lose here, we expect a tight game throughout.  They’ve also proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-2 SU record in true road games.  With Louisville struggling a bit, we take ND to cover this spread and feel they have a solid shot at the upset.

Today we play UNDER in the Central Michigan at Western Michigan game. The number on this game opened around 175 and has since been played down to the current number but we still feel there is plenty of value left with an UNDER wager. Our math suggests a total output on this game of 161.5 which is significantly less than the total set on this MAC clash. These same ‘Michigan’ teams recently met in Central and produced 168 total points. Western is the more dominate team here, at home, and they’ll instill their will on the flow of the game which means a slower tempo contest. WMU is 11th in the conference in pace of play and will do everything to keep CMU from playing fast (1st in MAC). The average total points scored in MAC games this year is 152. Western Michigan has been especially stingy defensively their last three games having allowed 56 or less points in each of those games, and one was an OT affair. CMU is shooting just 38.7% their last five games and will have some issues scoring here against the Broncos. Based on comparable opponents we predict a total right around 160. BET UNDER!

We are going to play OVER in the OKC Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers game. The current Total on this game is hovering around 219 total points which is 8-points higher than the league average but we still feel there is enough value for an OVER wager. These two teams are both in the top 10 of the league in terms of pace of play and both are in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. OKC may be 10th in defensive efficiency ratings but Portland is 4th worst. In their last four games the Thunder have scored 109 or more points in every game and they've given up 105 or more in three of the four. Portland is allowing an average of 111PPG their last five games with opponents hitting over 45% from the field against them. There will be some fantastic guard play tonight with Lillard, McCollum and Russell Westbrook on the court and we expect a fast paced high scoring affair. BET OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Boston Bruins vs New York Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Though the Rangers have lost two straight, the defeats came at the hands of two of the best teams in the league. With that said, this Thursday match-up features two hot teams squaring off in Boston. Before the Rangers lost back to back games to the Blue Jackets and Capitals, New York had won 9 of its last 11 games and, for the most part, the offense led the way. The Rangers are averaging 3.3 goals per game this season and they now face a red hot Bruins offense in this one. Boston has won 10 of its last 13 games and the Bruins have averaged scoring 4 goals per game during this red hot 13-game stretch. With plenty of potent offensive weapons on both sides of the ice in this one, look for a high-scoring match-up in Boston tonight. The over has cashed in 16 of 22 times in Rangers games against teams with a winning record this season. The over has cashed in 15 of 23 times this season in Boston's games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bruins are on a long-term 55-31 run to the over in games against opponents with a winning record. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have resulted in 7 goals scored. With this total sitting at a 5.5, and considering the current trending of these teams toward the over, we raise the level of this one to a Top Play.. There have only been 6 unders in the Rangers last 29 games and the Bruins are on a 10-3-1 run to the over in their last 14 games. Bet the OVER in Boston in this one early Thursday evening.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Michigan State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tough spot here for a very young MSU team.  They are off a huge home win on Sunday vs a struggling Wisconsin team and now take the road a few days later.  While Sparty has been tough at home, they are just 2-6 on the road this season.  MSU has a road scoring margin of -8 PPG and they are allowing opponents to shoot 47%.  That happens with a young team.  The defense has problems on the road.  This will be the first road game MSU has had to play without starting senior guard Eron Harris who was lost for the season in a loss @ Purdue on February 18th.They are facing an Illini team that is absolutely peaking to close out the regular season.  Illinois has won 4 of their last 5 games and their defense has been outstanding down the stretch.  And speaking of defense, U of I has been lock down on that end of the court as of late.  Over the last 5 games the Illini defense has allowed opponents just 0.93 points per possession.  Illinois is a veteran team playing their final home game of the season.  They still have hopes of an NCAA berth but must win this one and @ last place Rutgers this weekend to get to 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall heading into the conference tourney.  We’ll take Illinois here.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 140 in the Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois game. The MAC conference as a whole is very high scoring conference as their games average 152 total points on the season, and tonight we have value with this number that has simply been set to low. Based on our projections this game should finish with 149 total points and go OVER the number. These same two teams just met in mid-February and totaled 143 total points in Western Michigan. NIU hit just 39% from the field overall and made just 5 of 19 3-pointers. WMU didn't have a great shooting night either at just 43% and they missed 9 free throws as a team but combined they still scored 143 which would net a winner here. You can expect a much better shooting night from the Huskies tonight as they have shot over 44% as a team at home this season while Western Michigan has hit an average over 45% their last five games and scored nearly 80PPG. WMU recently played an Eastern Michigan team that is very similar in terms of pace, OEFF and DEFF to Northern Illinois and they combined for 168 total points.  We can also make the comparison between Akron and WMU (tempo, OEFF and DEFF) and see that NIU recently played the Zips and they combined for 149 total points. 

UNDER EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - We nailed another easy Total winner last night in college as our late season predictive math model is honed in. Today our favorite O/U wager on the board is UNDER in the Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan game. Our projected number on this game is 158 which is substantially lower than the Vegas number. When looking at a few comparable opponents (Kent State and No. Illinois) to Eastern Michigan we find Central Michigan scored 170 and 155 versus NIU and 166 versus Kent State (*In regulation*). Those two teams have similar tempo and efficiency ratings to EMU which gives us a great baseline for tonight’s contest. On the flip side, there are some similar numbers for Ball State and Central Michigan and when Eastern played Ball State twice this season they totaled 166 and 151. These two Michigan teams have already squared off this season and that game ended with 148 total points. EMU is shooting just 42.9% on the road this year and CMU is struggling shooting at just 39.8% as a team their last five games. The UNDER is 8-1 the last nine meetings with the highest total points scored in the last 10 meetings being 179 which barely crawls over tonight’s number. In fact, the average total points scored in the last 10 clashes is just 130 total points per game. 

We will play UNDER 164 in the UL Lafayette @ Appalachian State game. Vegas posted a number on this game of 166 and it was immediately bet down to 164 but it hasn’t moved enough per our predictive math model which suggests a total of 152 on this game. Let’s not forget the Sunbelt league average total points scored per game is 143.7PPG so you can see for yourself this number is over-inflated. Yes, these are two of the faster paced teams in the conference but based on comparable opponents this game won’t come close to the posted Total. Appalachian State shoots just 40.3% at home on the season which makes them one of the worst shooting teams at home in the Sun Belt, and they allow just 43.7% at home which is drastically better than their overall season % allowed. They average and allow less than 70PPG when playing at home on the season. ULL struggles to shoot on the road at just 42.6% and their road contests have averaged just 153 total points per game. App State has played UNDER in 8 of their last eleven at home. BET UNDER! 

OVER 137.5 Illinois @ Nebraska, 7:30PM ET – We wish we could bet this game at the opening line of 133 but even though we can’t, we still feel there is enough value to play OVER on this number. In fact, our math model projects 142 total points on this game and we feel it will be even higher than that. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for 145 total points which pushed the Vegas number. These two teams are both in the bottom half of the Big 10 in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but they are also in the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency ratings. Illinois allows 1.056 points per possession and Nebraska allows 1.063PPP. On the season the Illini are averaging 143 total points per game with their opponents when playing on the road while Nebraska home games have averaged that same number of 143. Granted, Illinois averages are down their past 5 games but they played Northwestern twice in that 5-game span and they are the 3rd slowest paced team in the Big Ten and one of the better defensive teams. The Cornhuskers are 5th in the Big Ten in pace of play and they’ll set the tempo at home today. The bet here is OVER the total!

PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today!

PLAY ON: #711/712 OVER 154.5 IPFW @ Western Illinois, 8:30PM ET – We just successfully played over in a Western Illinois game earlier this week and tonight they face one of the fastest paced teams in the Summit League in IPFW. The Summit League is known for faster paced, higher scoring teams and not known for their defense. Conference games this year have averaged 158.6PPG and today’s number offers some value. When these same two teams met earlier this season they combined for 184 total points and an OVER which tie into a trend for these two conference foes.  IPFW has a 22-8 OVER record their last 30 conference games, while WIU has played OVER in 14 of their last 18 in Summit League play. In their most recent action, IPFW (+ foe) is averaging 174 total points per game while Western Illinois and their opponents are averaging 156PPG. Vegas has set this number a shade too low and we’ll step in with a play on the OVER! 

ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. 

Today we play UNDER 176.5 in the Central Michigan @ Toledo game. The league average total points scored per game in the MAC this year is 152 and today we have a Total that is set nearly 20 points higher. Our predictive model projects a total on this game that is full 12-points less than the number Vegas has posted which is HIGHLY unusual. Toledo is the dominate team here and will dictate tempo which is key. The Rockets are 12th in the conference when it comes to tempo or pace so they’ll want to play slow. Not to mention they are coming off a huge game against Western Michigan and have a bigger game on deck versus Ball State. Yes, the Chippewas want to play fast (1st in MAC pace) but again, Toledo won’t allow it. On their home floor, in conference games, the Rockets and their opponents have NOT totaled more than 167 points and those contests averaged 142 total points. In the first meeting of the season these two combined for 184 total points but that was at Central Michigan. CMU has had issues shooting the basketball of late as they are averaging less than 42% as a team from the field their last five games. The UNDER has cashed 7 of the last 9 meetings and should win again tonight with this inflated number!

PLAY ON: OVER 146 SOUTH DAKOTA @ WESTERN ILLINOIS - We have a fantastic play for you tonight on the OVER in the South Dakota @ Western Illinois game. This Summit League game has all the makings of a very high scoring game and we expect plenty of points by both teams here. When we run the numbers through our predictive math model we come up with a Total that is 6.5 points higher than the posted number tonight. That’s a substantial difference by our algorithm and immediately gets our attention. Summit League games average 158 total points per game and this number set by Vegas is substantially lower than that. S Dakota is the 2nd fastest paced team in the conference and Western Illinois is the 4th fastest. Defensively these two teams are top four in terms of efficiency ratings but ‘defense’ is a loose term in this conference and both teams have been giving up a ton of points lately. South Dakota has given up an average of 80PPG their last five games on 46% shooting by opponents. In that same 5 games span Western Illinois has allowed 83PPG on 48% shooting by foes. There is one team in the conference that is very like both teams and that’s Nebraska-Omaha. South Dakota recently played at NEOM and they combined for 174 total points. Western Illinois hosted NEOM on Feb 1st and they combined for 146 total points. The Over has cashed in 5 straight SD road games. The Over is also 9-3 the last Western Illinois home games. See the trend…BET OVER!

ASA UNDER  147.5 in the Louisiana Tech @ North Texas game, 8PM ET - Based on our math model this game projects out to have under 143.5 total points and we agree with its prognosis. The league average for total points scored in this conference 142 and we feel these two teams will be much closer to that number than the one Vegas has posted. When these same two teams met in late January they combined for 138 total points which was the O/U the oddsmakers had suggested. Which also shows the value we are getting here as tonight's number is much higher than the 138 from the first meeting. North Texas is the 3rd worst efficiency offensive team in the conference at just .956 points per possession and the 309th (out of 351) overall eFG% team in the nation at just 47%. The Mean Green will have a hard time scoring here against a La Tech team that has the 3rd best efficiency defense in Conference USA, allowing just .954 points per possession. The Bulldogs average 80PPG at home on the season but that number dips to just 72PPG on the road. With La Tech being the superior team they'll dictate tempo in this one and should keep this from being a high scoring affair. In their 7 conference road games the Bulldogs and their opponents have average 138 combined total points. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Anaheim Ducks Money Line over Boston Bruins, Wednesday at 10:35 PM ET

The Ducks are off of a tough loss at Arizona where they not only out shot the Coyotes by a sizable margin for the game, Anaheim out shot them in every single period. It was a strong effort for the Ducks and yet they ended up with nothing to show for it. This most definitely will result in an intense effort from Anaheim tonight. The Ducks have dominated the Bruins in recent meetings and, with a win already at Boston in December, are going for their third straight season series sweep. The Bruins have won 4 straight games entering tonight's match-up but Boston's win at San Jose Sunday was the first time this season that Boston was able to make it a 4-game run. The Bruins had lost all 4 times this season when entering a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Boston is now in the wrong place at the wrong time to extend that run as the Ducks have won 46 of their last 70 home games with a total set at 5 goals. Anaheim is hungry to get right back into the win column and the Bruins win over the Sharks was just their 2nd victory in their last 6 road games. The point is that Boston is getting a lot of positive press right now due to their winning streak since the coaching change but most of their recent wins have been at home and now they're being tremendously tested on the road. We don't foresee this one ending well for the Bruins as Anaheim has outscored them 14 to 5 in the last 3 meetings. Grab the fantastic line value with the Ducks on the money line in what should be a home ice blowout late Wednesday night.

PLAY ON: MARYLAND (-4) over Minnesota - We love the spot to play on the Maryland Terrapins over the visiting Minnesota Gophers. While Minnesota is coming off a hard fought, emotional home win over Michigan and in for a letdown, the Terps are off a disappointing loss on the road in Wisconsin. We expect a bounce back here for Maryland who is a solid 12-3 SU at home with a point differential of +8PPG. Minnesota is 4-4 SU on the road this year but they’ve struggled shooting it away from home by hitting just 40% from the field. In terms of defensive efficiency rating these two teams are relatively even allowing 1.005 points per possession (Maryland) and 1.004 PPP (Minnesota) but in terms of offense the Terps are MUCH better. Maryland has the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Ten at 1.082PPP while the Gophers are 11th in the conference at 1.023PPP. MD has the 4th best eFG% shooting statistics in the B10 at 53.7% while the Gophers are 12th at 46.9%. Maryland has covered 12 of their last 16 Conference games while the Gophs are 7-9 ATS their last 16 conference roadies. We expect Maryland to get off to a good start at home and Minnesota just doesn’t have an offense capable of playing catchup. Lay the points!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: #765/766 OVER the 141 Total Furman @ East Tennessee State, 7PM ET-  We are going to play OVER the Total in the East Tennessee State versus Furman tonight in the Southern Conference showdown. First place is on the line tonight as Furman currently leads the SoCon with a 13-3 record but ETSU is right behind them at 12-3. These are basically the top two teams in the SoCon in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and when we look at similar teams and home/road dichotomies we expect a high scoring game tonight. ETSU starts 4 seniors who will be playing their final home game in front of a sellout crowd (lead conference in attendance and the fans will be rabid tonight). The Bucs are also playing with same season revenge as they had a HORRIBLE shooting night at Furman (14% from 3-point line, 37% overall) and lost 62-75 for 137 Total points. That was uncharacteristic for ETSU who is the 7thth best shooting team in the nation at 49.3%. Furman can also light it up from the field as they rank 40th in the country in shooting at 47.4% as a team. As we touched on earlier, Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession and have the 2nd best eFG% at 56.9%. They typically take 17.9 seconds to get a shot off which is 6th in the conference. ETSU is 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.110PPP and 1st in eFG% at 57.7%. They play fast too, averaging just 16.1 seconds to take a shot which is 2nd fastest in the SoCon. East Tenn State has a goal of getting to 80 points as they are a perfect 12-0 SU this year when they top that mark. Our Math Model projects a Total of 146.5 on this game and the league average is nearly 148PPG so you can see for yourself the value we are getting at 141. 

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON: OVER 5.5 goals: Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Blackhawks are off of a 5-1 win at Buffalo on Sunday. That marked the 6th time that Chicago has scored 4 goals or more in their last 7 games! Minnesota is also off of a big win, 5-2 versus Nashville, and the Wild have scored 4 goals or more in more than half of their games the last 5 weeks. Even though this is a big divisional match-up and one might expect a lower-scoring game as a result, both of these teams are "clicking" right now in the offensive zone! Also, in their last meeting two weeks ago they combined for 7 goals and both meetings between these clubs this season have totaled at least 67 shots on goal. The Wild are 14-6 to the over this season after a victory that was decided by a margin of 2 goals or more. That was a divisional win, versus Nashville, and the Wild are 13-5 to the over this season when off of a divisional game. The Blackhawks are on a 13-3-1 run to the over in their last 17 games and we just don't see either teams blue liners being able to dictate the pace of this game. As a result, look for a highly entertaining divisional battle with plenty of goals in this one as the forwards continue to create scoring chances at a great clip. Bet the OVER in Minnesota Tuesday night.

We are going to play UNDER 146 in the Purdue @ Penn State game tonight. We love several different dynamics to this wager including a line that is 6-points higher than Big Ten games average, plus the fact a high percentage of public money has been bet on the OVER already but the line isn't moving. That tells me they'll take all the action they can on OVER because they like UNDER. Purdue is in a tough scheduling spot here and could be flat for this contest. They are off a big win over Michigan State and have a road date at Michigan on deck. Plus, they beat this PSU team 77-52 earlier this season. The Boilermakers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten allowing just .97 points per possession. In their last five contests they have held foes to an average of just 38.3% shooting which is ridiculously low. Penn State is 'average' or 7th in the Big Ten in DEFF allowing 1.016PPP and they've been solid at home defensively allowing just 68.7PPG on their home floor and 40.4% shooting by opponents.  Both teams struggle shooting when on the road (Purdue 42.1%) and at home (PSU 41.5%). The Nittany Lions just hosted a very similar team to Purdue (OEFF, DEFF and pace) in Maryland a few weeks back and they combined for 134 total points. Purdue hosted Rutgers just last week who has very similar stats to Penn State and they combined for 129 total points. The Under is on a 19-6 run the last 25 meetings, 4-1 Under last 5 games for Purdue and 9-4 L13 home games for PSU. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line over Vancouver Canucks, Sunday at 10:05 PM ET

The Flyers have been struggling and now this is their only chance to 'right the ship' in an otherwise 'quiet' part of their schedule as they face the Canucks Sunday night. Philadelphia had 2 days off coming into this game and they'll have 2 days off before their next game Wednesday in Philly. With that said, we expect a very focused Flyers team to take the ice in Vancouver tonight. Philly knows this is a critical game to 'stop the bleeding' as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Philadelphia is catching the Canucks at the right time as Vancouver is off of a tight win over Calgary last night. Not only was that a big divisional win for the Canucks, they also could be peeking ahead to their bye week here as they have 5 days off after this game! Vancouver has only won back to back games once since early January. In fact, prior to their win over the Flames, the Canucks had lost 12 of their last 18 games. Vancouver has lost 17 of 26 divisional games this season and the Flyers have won their last two meetings with the Canucks by a combined score of 7 to 4. With Philly off of back to back losses they'll respond here. The Flyers have not only outshot their opponent in 5 straight games, they've outshot them by a double digit margin in 4 of the 5 games. We expect their strong efforts to finally be rewarded here. Lay the small price with the Flyers on the money line in what should be a road rout Sunday night.

ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #862 @MINNESOTA (-1) over Michigan, 7PM ET We like the situation to play on the Minnesota Gophers minus the short number at home over the Michigan Wolverines. Minnesota has the 3rd highest RPI ratings among Big Ten teams and has played a stronger schedule to date than Michigan. The Gophs also have the interior defenders (3rd in nation in blocked shots) to hold the Wolves front court at bay. Michigan is due for a letdown after their 3 straight emotional wins over instate rival Michigan State, at Indiana and a home win over Wisconsin. Minnesota is off 3 straight wins too but they were favored in all three and expected to win. The defensive advantages for the Gophers is dramatic as they have one of the best eFG% defenses in the Big Ten while the Wolverines have the second worst. When playing on the road the Wolverines shoot just 42% but allow foes to hit nearly 53%. Minnesota on the other hand shoots near 45% at home but hold foes to just 39% on their home court. Michigan has a negative road differential of -7PPG on the road this season while the Gophers have a home differential of nearly +11PPG. We like the number in this game as the Gophers were just a -4.5 point favorite at home over Maryland (2nd in Big 10) and is laying less in this situation. Minnesota is 14-3 SU at home this season while the Wolves are just 1-6 SU away. We will lay the short number with the Gophers here. 

ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #868 @TEMPLE (-2) over Connecticut, 4PM ET - We are playing on Temple at home over UConn on Sunday afternoon. When these two teams last met in mid-January the Huskies were a -1.5 point favorite and won handily after Temple shot horrendously from the field (35.9%) compared to UConn hitting over 52% from the field. Look at the tremendous line value we are getting here as Temple should be at least 6 or 7 in this contest. We also like the scheduling dynamics here with UConn coming off a win over Memphis, in which they were down 17, and had to expend a ton of energy in that comeback win.  Temple has been up and down but have some impressive wins on their resume over Florida State, West Virginia and two wins over 18-9 Memphis. The Owls have beaten the Huskies two straight years on this floor in regular season play. Temple gets it done offensively by making 3-pointers (25th in 3-point attempts per game) and they shot it below their season average (36%) in the first meeting (29%) but that should change back at home.  In fact, Owls Obi Enechionyia was 1-for-10 on threes, a key to the game. Enechionyia is 6 feet 10, and UConn's big men are not used to getting out and guarding the perimeter. The Huskies are just 2-8 SU against top 100 RPI teams this season and Temple is 94th. Lastly, Temple's strength of schedule is much better than UConn's and we feel they get a comfortable home win today!

#680 @TENNESSEE CHATTANOOGA (ML) over East Tennessee State, 5PM ET - Scroll down to the added games for this wager as we will invest in Tennessee Chattanooga minus the points at home over East Tennessee State. We've followed this conference very closely this season and have had this date circled for the past few weeks. Chattanooga is 3rd in the conference looking up at ETSU and playing with revenge from an earlier loss this year on the road. A win here by Matt McCall (48-13 SU in his second year as a college coach) and the Mocs will ensure a bye into the quarterfinals of the conference tourney and bolster their odds at wining the Southern Conference. Tenn-Chatt is very good at home with a 11-1 record overall and a 31-2 mark their last 33 on their home court. This season the Mocs have won their home games by an average of 12PPG and shoot 49% at home which is 41st in the nation. Chattanooga swept ETSU last year but lost their only meeting this season 76-71 at ETSU. ETSU was +7 in free throws and made a few more 3's which was the ultimate difference in the game. The Buccaneers are a solid team but they have lost 4 road games already this year, 2 in conference play. Based on comparable opponents, lines on those games it's clear to us Tennessee Chattanooga should be a much bigger favorite than they are today in this game. In fact, the Mocs were -10.5 points at home earlier this season over Furman (who leads the conference for now) and won that game by 16 points. Both teams shoot it well but Tenn-Chat has played the tougher schedule and is one of the best teams in the league in turning over their opponents. ETSU on the other hand doesn't value the basketball is and is last in the SoCon when it comes to turning it over offensively. Tenn-Chat is 22-3 SU at home their last 25 conference home contests and get a big win today over East Tennessee State.  Not close!!!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* Florida Panthers Money Line over Anaheim Ducks, Friday at 10:05 PM ET

We successfully used the Panthers as an underdog at San Jose Wednesday and the set-up here in this Friday match-up involving Florida at Anaheim is nearly identical so we won't hesitate to step in. Even though the Panthers win over the Sharks Wednesday came in overtime, Florida never trailed the entire game and they had a multiple goal lead on multiple occasions including in the third period. San Jose's goal with less than a minute left is what forced overtime in that game. That night the Panthers were catching the Sharks off of a long road trip and in their first game back home. That is precisely the same situation here with Anaheim as the Ducks just got done with a long road trip back east and this will be the first game since coming back. As we've said before, the first home game back after a long road trip is often the toughest game. That said, look for Anaheim to struggle here and the hungry Panthers will take advantage. Florida is hell-bent on making a playoff push and they are proving it by winning 5 of their last 6 games. Taking a look at the Ducks, they had lost 4 of their last 5 games before notching a win at Minnesota Tuesday night. That was a bit of a fortunate win for Anaheim as they were outplayed for much of that game. That also was a big revenge win for the Ducks as that was their first victory over Bruce Boudreau since he went from Anaheim to the Wild in the off-season. That makes this a flat spot for the Ducks and they weren't playing that well as it was. Anaheim also has a huge game with big rival Los Angeles on deck and that strengthens this situation even more for Florida. The suspension of Antoine Vermette further weakens the Ducks for this game and defenseman Sami Vatanen is also questionable for Friday's game as he deals with a knee injury. The Panthers have won 12 of 18 this season and 38 of 63 in recent seasons after a game where they gave up 4 or more goals. Grab the underdog value with the Panthers on the money line for a Top Play selection late Friday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Richmond +2.5 over VCU, Friday at 9:00 PM ET

This is a huge rivalry game with both schools located in Richmond and just 6 miles apart.  VCU shot 52% from the field in the first meeting this year and won a competitive game 81-74.  The Rams were also +12 in FT’s made in that game so for Richmond to stay tight throughout with VCU shooting very well and having a big edge at the line was impressive.  Now the Spiders get their chance at redemption, this time at home.  VCU has had some big home wins in A10 play but the road has been a different story.  The Rams are 2-2 their last 4 conference road games but they could easily be 0-4 in those games.  In their two road wins during that stretch @ GW and @ St Bonnies, they had some very lucky end of game situations take place.  Versus GW the Rams trailed by 1 with 0.4 seconds remaining and drew a charging foul on an inbounds play then made both FT’s to win.  Versus St Bonnies they led by 2 when the Bonnies made a 3-pointer to “win” the game with 0.4 seconds remaining.  Problem was, the fans stormed the court and were assessed the technical because the game wasn’t officially over.  VCU sent the game to OT where they eventually won.  This team is ready to get nipped on the road and we think that happens here.  Richmond is the #1 shooting team in the league (54.6 eFG%) and they don’t turn the ball over very often which is key vs VCU.  The host has covered 70% of the last 21 meetings in this cross town rivalry (14-6-1 ATS) and we like the Spiders to pull the “upset” here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UConn -4.5 over Memphis, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

The Huskies are playing easily their best basketball of the season.  After starting the AAC with just a 2-4 record their first 6 conference games, UConn has since won 6 of their last 7.  That puts them at 7-5 in league play which is a half game behind tonight’s opponent, Memphis, for 4th place in the conference.  These two met in January in Memphis the Tigers came away with a 70-61 win.  UConn made a paltry 37% of their shots and were terrible from deep hitting just 4 of their 20 three points attempts.  Since that game the Huskies have shot the ball light year’s better as they now lead the AAC in 3-point shooting percentage (conference games only) making over 41%.  They also hit 76% of their FT’s which is 2nd in the conference as well.  Memphis ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and shooting percentage and they’ve made it to 70 points only once in their last six games.  After shooting much better than normal in their first game vs UConn (47%) we expect the Tigers to struggle offensively here vs one of the top defenses in the nation (UConn ranks 16th nationally in defensive eFG%).   Connecticut should destroy Memphis on the boards here as they did in the first game (+20 margin) and if that happens, they will cruise here.  Since losing their home opener in AAC play back on Dec 28th, the Huskies have won 5 straight at home with 4 of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We’ll side with the red hot Huskies at home laying a marginal number.

PLAY OVER 212.5 CELTICS @ BULLS - We will play OVER in the Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls game tonight. The Celtics played last night and clearly when they play games without rest their defense suffers. When playing the second night of a back to back the Celtics have an 8-4 OVER record and they allow an average of 120PPG. In their last eight games in this scheduling situation they are 8-0 OVER with the average total points in those games being 225PPG. Even the Bulls offense, that averages just 1.071 points per possession, should score points against a fatigued Boston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rankings. Boston is going to score here too as they have one of the better offenses in the league averaging 108.5PPG with the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Bulls defense (or lack of) has allowed 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, and most recently allowed 117, 115 and 123 against three similar teams to Boston. C's over streak of 10-2 their last 12 on the road while Bulls over in 7 of their last ten at home against a team with a +.500 record. 

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. 

PLAY OVER 217 Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers, Tuesday 10:35PM ET - Our play tonight is OVER in the Sacramento Kings @ L.A. Lakers game. Pace is clearly one of the first things to look at when betting Over/Unders in the NBA and the current numbers for each team support a faster paced game tonight. The Kings on the season are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (4th slowest) but in their last five games they are averaging more possessions per game and rank 14th fastest. The Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams all season (6th) but in their last five games they are 2nd at 103.1 possessions per game. Over the course of their last five games the Kings are averaging 107PPG while the Lakers check in at 112PPG. While the Kings have been better defensively than the Lakers over their recent stretch, L.A. has allowed 114PPG. OK, so we have pace what about scoring? Well both of these teams rank in the bottom 7 of the league in field goal percentage defense against so both should make plenty of shots. Both teams have 5-1 OVER streaks as the Kings have gone OVER the number in 5 of their last six on the road while the Lakers have gone OVER in 5 of their last six anywhere. The play here is OVER the Total!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +1 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

CSU is playing the best basketball in the Mountain West right now.  They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback coming by 3 points at the hands of 1st place Boise State.  They have shown they can get it done on the road winning 4 of their 6 away games in MWC play and outscoring their opponents on the road.  The Rams have also covered 8 of their last 9 road games.  This is a team that is very tough to contain offensively.  They rank #1 in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency, 3-point shooting percentage, and offensive rebounding.  On top of that, they make 75% of their FT’s.  Wyoming can’t match offensively or on the boards here as they rank near the bottom of the conference in both.  They face a Ram defense that allows opponents to shoot only 38% on the road so the struggles should continue here.  The Cowboys have only played 2 of the top 5 teams in the MWC at home this year and they’ve lost to both (Boise & Nevada).  The Cowboys have played just 4 overall this year against the top 5 in this conference (CSU, San Diego St, Nevada, New Mexico, and Boise) and they are 0-4 in those games.  They are just 2-2 at home since mid-January with their only wins coming by 1 point over UNLV and by 2 points in 4 overtimes vs Fresno.  This is a double revenger for Colorado State as they lost both to Wyoming last year – this is first meeting this year.  We’ll gladly take the better team getting points here.

PLAY  ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA.  Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it!

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +10.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

Too many points here.  Wisconsin continues to win but not easily and not by wide margins.  Their defense has been great but their offense has left a lot to be desired.  5 of their last 7 wins were down to the wire games that weren’t decided until very late.  Over their last 4 games the Badgers are averaging just 63 PPG and shooting only 37% from the field.  A few of Wisconsin’s key players are banged up right now including point guard Koenig who is nursing a leg injury and not nearly 100%.  Northwestern comes in with an 18-6 record and only one of those losses have come by double digits.  The Cats have also struggled a bit offensively with leading scorer Lindsey out with mono, however this team plays very good defense.  They are ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and should give a struggling Wisconsin offense all kinds of trouble.  This should be a lower scoring game with the total set at 125 making the points very valuable here.  NW has had extra time to prepare after playing on Tuesday while Wisconsin was in Nebraska playing an overtime game on Thursday.  This is a huge game for Northwestern’s NCAA resume and we think we’ll get another nailbiter in Madison.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* SMU -5 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

The Mustangs have been waiting for this one.  They come into this game with an 11-1 conference record and their only loss was @ Cincy by a final score of 66-64.  The Bearcats are 11-0 in league play so this one could be for all the marbles.  SMU had their chances in that 2-point los missing a 3 pointer with 7 seconds remaining and a layup with 3 seconds left that would have pushed the game to OT.   This time they get the Bearcats at home where SMU has simply been dominant. They are 14-0 at home with their wins coming by an average margin of 22 points.  Their AAC home games have resulted in wins of 40, 21, 20, 19, and 14 points.  All but 1 of their 14 home wins have come by more than 10 points.  They are 8-1 ATS at home covering those by a combined 90 points or a full 10 PPG above the spread.  Cincy is obviously very good with a perfect AAC record.  However they’ve played 4 of their last 5 games at home and their one road tilt @ Tulsa the Bearcats had to come from 9 down with 6:00 minutes to win by 2.  In their 7 road games, Cincinnati is 6-1, however they are averaging only 62 PPG in those games and shooting just 38% from the field and 28% from beyond the arc.  They are facing a Mustang team that hits almost 50% of their shots at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 35%.  SMU has won 33 of their last 34 games at home and this is one of their biggest home games ever.  We think they rise to the occasion and roll in this one.

514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today!

ASA PLAY ON 10* UW Green Bay +3 over Wright State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - Horizon League Game of the Month

UWGB is off a 69-67 loss @ Northern Kentucky on Thursday.  Despite the tight loss the Phoenix remain in 2nd place in the Horizon but have dropped 2 games behind Valpo making this a huge game.  With just 5 games remaining, Green Bay needs this win to keep their shot at the conference title alive.  We faded UWGB on Thursday as we felt it was a great spot with Northern Kentucky playing very well and the Phoenix coming off a huge win over conference leader Valpo.  Even with that, GB played well and had a shot to win.  Now off a loss in a must win spot, we think they get it.  GB has been a solid road team in Horizon play with a 3-3 record and two of their three losses coming by 2 points or fewer.  The Phoenix whipped WSU at home by 17 this year and they were far from efficient offensively shooting only 42% in the win.  Wright State is off a home win Thursday vs 2nd to last place UWM but the Raiders have already lost 2 home games despite not hosting any of the Horizon’s top 3 yet this season (Valpo, UWGB, and Oakland).  GB has covered covered 5 of their last 6 this year as a dog and we think they win this one outright.

Tonight we like UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons game. Pace or tempo are critical aspects when handicapping Totals and tonight we have 6th (Spurs) and 7th (Pistons) slowest paced teams in the NBA squaring off. The average total points scored per game is 210 and the number on tonight's game is hovering around that total even though we have two of the slowest paced teams in the league. While San Antonio is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.128 points per possession the Pistons are 20th in that same category at 1.067PPP. Defense is another story though as both rank in the top 7 in points allowed per possession. Two teams that play slow and great defense and only one that is better than average in scoring means a very low scoring game tonight. A similar team to Detroit is Memphis and the Spurs just played the Grizzlies and totaled 163 points. The last time these two opponents squared off was back in November and that game ended with 182 total points. Tremendous value with an UNDER bet here. 

PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. 

PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points - Baylor @ Oklahoma State, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

Baylor is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (#330) and they know to win this game they have to make it a grinder.  OSU wants to get up and down, however if one of the two teams wants to play slow, they usually get control of the tempo. That will be the case here similar to the first meeting this year when Baylor topped OSU 61-57.  The Bears have one of the top defenses in the nation ranking 6th in defensive efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense while allowing just 61 PPG on the season.  They’ve allowed only 3 opponents to reach 70 points in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys offense has been putting points on the board, however they’ve played mainly fast paced teams as of late.  Those type of teams play right into the hands of the Okie State squad.  There are only really 2 slower paced teams in the conference (Baylor & Texas Tech) and in those games the OSU total points scored were 118 & 147, both under today’s number.  In their game vs Tech where the two totaled 147, the team’s combined to shoot 50% overall and nearly 50% from 3 and still stayed UNDER the number.  We don’t envision those type of shooting numbers tonight.  We know Baylor’s defense is top notch but OSU’s is much better than their overall season numbers.  They’ve changed their defensive philosophy over the last few weeks changing from a pressure defense to more of a man to man, gap help defense.  It’s really helped as in their last 5 games their opponents have only hit 43% of their shots.  Baylor’s offense is struggling shooting 35%, 42%, and 38% their last 3 games so don’t expect them to break out here.  Baylor knows how they have to play to win games – slow with defense.  Of their 10 Big 12 games this year, 9 have stayed under this current total.  Add another one tonight.  Play the UNDER here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Clemson -3.5 over Syracuse, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

Clemson is in must win mode at home tonight.  This is a veteran team that has aspirations of making the NCAA tourney.  Sitting at 13-9 overall and 3-7 in the ACC, this becomes a must win game at home.  This team is better than their record.  They’ve played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation with only 4 of their 24 opponents ranked outside the top 100.  Of their 9 losses, 6 of come by 6 points or fewer.  In ACC play they’ve lost to UNC in OT, UVA by 4, Virginia Tech by 1, and Notre Dame by 5.  The Tigers should be extra motivated here coming  off their worst performance of the season, a rare blowout loss @ FSU on Sunday.  Coach Brad Brownell was disgusted with his team’s performance and because of the lop sided loss, he was able to spread his minutes out getting the starters some rest.  Only one player played more than 25 minutes and 9 different players saw double digit minutes.  The offense hit only 37% of their shots and a normally solid defense allowed FSU to shoot a ridiculous 66% for the game.  You can bet Clemson will play with fire in their bellies tonight.  Syracuse has won 4 straight but 3 of those have come at home.  Their only road win during that stretch was in OT @ NC State.  The fact is, that’s the only road win this season for the Orange who come into this one with a 1-5 mark in road games.  Not only that, all 5 of their road losses have come by at least 10 points.  Their defense has been shredded away from home allowing over 51% from the field.  Expect Clemson’s offense, who averages 80 PPG at home, to get back on track tonight.  We’ll side with the desperate home team tonight.

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Wofford +4 over ETSU, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

It’s a no brainer to at least consider Wofford at home if they are getting points.  That’s because this team is 32-4 SU at home their last 36 including 8-1 this year with their only loss coming by 1-point in overtime.  They’ve been tabbed a home underdog only twice since the start of the 2014 season.  After playing 3 consecutive road games, Wofford is just happy to be back at home as they haven’t played on this court since January 25th.  The Terriers are playing well despite playing three straight on the road winning two of those.  They have won 5 of their last 7 overall with their only two losses coming @ Western Carolina by 6 and @ ETSU by 7.  In that game @ ETSU the Terriers were outshot 58% to 45% yet it still was close throughout.  Now they get ETSU at home where Wofford shoots 52% on the season.  Wofford in the most efficient offense in the Southern Conference and the 4th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% from the charity stripe (ETSU hit 66% of their FT’s).  The Buccaneers are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and the host has won this game 8 of the last 10 meetings.  We think Wofford has a great shot to win this and even if they don’t, we have some points to work with.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 59.5 Points - Atlanta vs New England, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET

Looking at this total logically and comparing it to last week’s totals, this number is simply too high.  It’s not surprising as most like to bet OVER in the Super Bowl and both teams were in high scoring Championship games so the oddsmakers had to set this high.  Atlanta’s NFC Championship game with Green Bay closed at 60.5 which is basically a point or two higher than this one.  That’s despite the fact that Green Bay’s defense was among the worst in the NFL and had a number of key injuries weakening their entire unit.  Now the Birds face one of the better defense in the NFL and the total is nearly the same?  How about the New England vs Pitt total in the AFC Champoinship game.  That was set at 50 vs a Steeler offense that was among the best in the NFL with 3 of the top offensive players in the NFL at the skill positions (Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell).  Yet this total is set a full 9 points higher than that one?  Again too high.  The Falcons defense has gotten much better.  After allowing 27.6 PPG and 382 YPG over the first 12 games they’ve dropped those numbers to just 19 PPG on 339 YPG over their last 6.   The Pats led the NFL in scoring defense by a full 3 points over Seattle giving up just 15.6 PPG.   The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta.  We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game.  Don’t be surprised if New England tries to shorten this game with their running attack.  This is the highest total in Super Bowl history and only 8 of the 50 Super Bowls have gotten into the 60’s.  We think the value is with the UNDER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Atlanta, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET

The Patriots are in their element here.  They’ve already been here 6 times in the Belichick/Brady Era and won 4 of those.  You can bet Brady is ultra-focused and motivated here as a win would cement him as the greatest of all time with 5 Super Bowl Rings – would be the most by a QB in NFL history.  He also has a bit of an agenda here as he’s still extremely angry with commissioner Roger Goodell for suspending him for 4 games this season because of the deflate gate stuff.  Goodell decided to skip the game in New England last week and go to Atlanta and you can bet that didn’t go unnoticed by Brady and the Pats.  The Atlanta players have no experience with this situation.   This is their first Super Bowl appearance since 1999 and the distractions and craziness leading up to the game is all new to them.  That gives Belichick and company a huge advantage in our opinion.  This will be the 7th time the NFL’s top scoring defense (New England) faces the top scoring offense (Atlanta) in the Super Bowl.  The team with the top scoring defense has won all but one of those games.  Belichick will have two weeks to get his defense ready for Atlanta’s offense which is a huge bonus in our opinion.  He won’t let the Falcons go up and down the field as they did last week vs a porous and injury riddled Packer defense that rated as one of the worst in the NFL.  The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta.  We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game.  This Patriot defense has allowed 30+ points only once this entire season and they’ve held 13 of their 18 opponents this year to under 20 points.  We wouldn’t be surprised at all if Belichick slows this game down and uses his running game to eat clock keeping Atlanta’s offense on the sidelines.  The Pats are good enough to win that type of game or if it turns into a shootout, this offense CAN keep up with Atlanta.  While the Falcons defense has improved late in the season, they have also allowed 20 or more points in 13 of their 18 games this season.  Brady should be able to pick apart one of the youngest defenses in the NFL.  Let’s not forget the Pats have lost a grand total of ONE game with Brady in the line up (vs Seattle).  Atlanta had losses to TB, San Diego, Philly, and Seattle, three of those being non-playoff teams.  New England is simply the better team and their experience in this situation is a HUGE factor.  Lay the field goal with the PATRIOTS.

ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits!

#585 – 10* TOP PLAY on UAB Blazers (-) over UTSA – Saturday at 4:00 PM ET – The Roadrunners are off of their first home loss of the season and will now be looking to bounce back at home but they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. First off, taking a longer look at UTSA, the only reason they had been undefeated on their home floor was that they played a very weak non-conference schedule and then, in CUSA action, their first three home games came against Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and UTEP. The combined record of those 3 teams is 19-44. Since UTSA's most recent home win, they have lost 4 straight games and that included the home loss to Middle Tennessee State Thursday. All 5 conference losses that the Roadrunners have been dealt have been decided by double digits! The average margin in UTSA's 5 CUSA losses is 16.8 points per game. The Runners just are too weak offensively to keep up with UAB, especially with the Blazers off of a loss. UAB comes into this ready to attack after a loss at UTEP on Thursday. The Blazers have won all 8 games this season when off of a loss. Having yet to lose two straight games this season we don't foresee that changing here either. UTSA has been held under 39.4% from the field in 5 straight games. UAB, before their road loss to the Miners, had knocked down at least 50% from the field in 6 straight games! Comparing the offensive production of these two teams, the Blazers are better across the board as they shoot better overall and from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Before the loss at UTEP, the Blazers had shot at least 44.4% from three point land in five straight games. The Blazers are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the conference and, after this road game, they don't play again until Thursday and that begins a stretch where they know they can make a run as 5 of their last 7 regular season games are at home. UAB will be fully focused on the task at hand as they've bounced back from a loss every single time this season. The key here of course is not just the SU win but getting the ATS cover and there is every reason to believe the Blazers will get the job done in that regard. When UTSA loses, they lose big. When UAB is off of a loss, they turn up the heat on defense in their next game. In terms of the offenses, there is simply no comparison here. UAB had averaged 82 points per game (including regulation time only) in their 7 games prior to the loss at UTEP. Looking at UTSA, the Roadrunners have not scored more than 71 points in any of their 9 conference game this season. In fact, the Runners are averaging just 61.7 points per game in conference games this season. This one has all the right ingredients for a road rout. Lay it! UAB for a Top Play Saturday!

PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of  13PPG. Lay the points!

PLAY UNDER WARRIORS @ CLIPPERS, 10:35PM ET - Tonight we'll play UNDER 228 in the Golden State Warriors @ L.A. Clippers game. Right now I'm guessing you're not a fan of this wager considering these two teams just met last Saturday with the Warriors winning 144-98. Now Golden State is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 50% from the field and they make 39% of their 3-point attempts. So it was abnormal that they made 62% of their FG attempts in the last meeting with the Clippers and 17 3-pointers which is 5 more than their season average. What also supports our thinking here is the fact the Clippers have a top 8 defense in terms of overall shooting percentage defense and 3-point percentage D. L.A. coach Doc Rivers has reminded his players just how embarrassing that loss was and you can bet they'll be much more focused on the defensive end of the court tonight. Golden State averages 5 less points per game on the road compared to at home and allow less too. The Clippers at home average 203 total points per game and are one of just 6 teams that allow less than 100PPG on their home court. These two teams are two of the 12 best defensive efficiency ratings teams in the league with the Warriors #1 allowing just 1.036 points per possession. The number on tonight's game is ridiculously high and the value lies with UNDER. In the last 10 meetings only 2 have resulted with more points than the number set on tonight's game. BET UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Montreal is off of a win but they have not managed back to back wins in the past 4 weeks. Overall, the Canadiens had lost 6 of their last 10 games before coming up with the home win versus Buffalo. Included in this stretch Montreal has lost 3 of its last 4 road games and the 3 defeats have come by a combined score of 11 to 2. They now face a Flyers team hungry to bounce back after a dismal effort on the road against the Hurricanes. In that loss at Carolina, Philly clearly wasn't ready to go and they need to make amends on home ice where they have won 10 of their last 13 games. Philadelphia only has a non-conference game on deck while the Canadiens have a big battle with Washington on deck. That sets this one up nicely for the Flyers to roll at home. Montreal has lost 20 of 35 road games when the total is set at 5.5 goals while Philly has won 36 of 59 home games with a total set at 5.5 goals. The home team has won each of the last 5 meetings between these clubs and it was a year ago to the day that the Flyers last hosted the Habs and Philadelphia got the 4-2 win. We expect a repeat today with fired up Philly off of a divisional loss. Grab the undervalue home team with the Flyers on the money line in this one early Thursday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Thursday at 7 PM ET: Game 711

This is a classic case of an undervalued ugly dog. Missouri is a poor 5-15 on the season and on the road facing a 16-5 Florida team. Even though the Gators should certainly get the win, this line is over-inflated as Florida is off of back to back big road wins. Prior to those easy road wins (where everything seemed to go right for the Gators) Florida had gone 3-4 ATS in SEC action. The largest margin of victory in any of those games was 13 points. So, why are the Gators such a huge favorite here? It has a lot to do with the fact Florida's last two wins have each come by more than 30 points. However, the fact is this is a touch scheduling spot for Florida. They have a huge game on deck as they will be hosting Kentucky on Saturday! With only one off day in between games, even if the Gators are fortunate enough to get a big lead over Mizzou, we don't foresee them trying to expend a bunch of energy to win by 20+ points. The fact is that Florida will want to keep their playing rotation fresh for the big match-up with the Wildcats that is only 48 hours away! As for the Tigers, despite their poor record, they have been very competitive and certainly haven't quit on their coach. Missouri continues to play hard and they have not lost a game by more than 19 points this entire season. In fact, 11 of their 15 losses have been by a dozen points or less. The Gators would be very "comfortable" winning this game by a dozen and recent results have simply driven this line to a level it should not be at. Missouri had shot the ball quite well in three straight games before running into the stifling defense of South Carolina. The Tigers will be ready to bounce back here as they have plenty of hunger to end their losing streak including an epic long road losing streak. Florida, surprisingly, has allowed opponents to hit 49% from the field in home games this season and, again, a let up before the Kentucky game would not be a surprise at all. Grab the big points with the Tigers in this one early Thursday evening.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (ML wager) over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We will play on the Memphis Grizzlies at the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are off a game last night in Los Angeles and the final score isn't really a good indicator of just how poorly they played. They shot just 38% for the first three quarters of the game, then gave up 39 points in the final stanza to the Lakers. Denver is just 2-7 SU when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 6PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 11 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-10 SU & ATS in those games. Memphis is playing better now since they've gotten healthy and have a 13-12 SU road record with an average point differential of -1PPG when away from home. That average point differential is 8th best in the NBA. The Grizz have won 3 of their last five road games and have7-3 spread record when laying 3.5 or less points this season. Denver obviously relies on their offense to win games and will try to push tempo here. The Nuggets are just 1-6 SU their last seven games when they don't score 120 or more points and Memphis has allowed over 120 just once all season and that was early on when they had multiple injuries. The Grizzlies have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating and they'll contain the high-octane offense of Denver. Take Memphis here.

PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here.