Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-22 | TCU v. Oklahoma UNDER 128 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#897/898 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 128 Points – Oklahoma vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and totaled just 117 points and that was including OVERTIME! At the end of regulation the score was 50-50. Both teams play a slow tempo and their defenses are superior to their offenses. They both rank inside the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and TCU is the #1 defense in the conference in Big 12 games. Both turn the ball over A LOT which wastes offensive possessions. In their first meeting OU had 20 turnovers and TCU had 19 which helped contribute to the low scoring game. Neither takes many 3-point shots (7th and 9th in the conference in % of points scored from deep) and neither is all that great at hitting them when they do take them (8th & 9th in 3 point % in league play, both under 30%). TCU doesn’t get to the FT line very often and when they do they are one of the worst at converting at the stripe (65% overall and just 58% in conference play). On the other end of the court, we don’t expect Oklahoma to get many looks from the FT line as TCU is very good at not fouling with just 13% of opponents points coming from the stripe (best in the Big 12). Both teams are coming off higher scoring games vs fast paced, high scoring teams, which sets this one up nicely (TCU vs LSU and Oklahoma vs Auburn). This will be a grinder and we like the UNDER. |
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01-31-22 | Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This is one of those “plug your nose” bets as we are backing a losing team as a road favorite. We will though for several reasons including going against a Thunder team that is 14-34 SU on the season and a team without their best player. The Thunder have the 4th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG and lose at home by an average of -4.3PPG. OKC is better than the Blazers statistically on the defensive end of the court but are much worst offensively. The Blazers are 16th in offensive efficiency ratings and are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Thunder rank 30th in points, FG% shooting and 3-point% shooting with the worst offensive efficiency numbers at 1.025-points per possession. Scoring will be even tougher tonight without their best players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 24.4 points, 7.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds in wins this season. The Thunder haven’t won this season without SGA in the lineup and stand 0-5 SU on the year. In those five losses the Thunder have been beaten by 12, 6, 73, 18 and 9 points. Going back further we find the Thunder are a miserable 6-36 SU without Alexander over the past two full seasons. OKC has lost 12 of their last thirteen. Portland is on a 5-0 spread run their last five games when coming off a loss of 10 or more points. The bet here is backing Portland. |
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01-30-22 | Mavs v. Magic UNDER 211.5 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - We are getting some extra value here after the Mavs put up over 130 points offensively in two straight games. Dallas shot extremely well in big wins over the Pacers and Blazers by hitting over 53% in both games which is drastically higher than their season average of 45.2% (19th). It also helps that the Pacers and Blazers are two of the worst defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Orlando isn’t great by any means, but they do rank 18th in opponents FG% and 21st in defensive efficiency ratings. The Magic will have a tough time scoring themselves with the 28th ranked scoring offense facing a Mavs defense that allows just 103.PPG which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas is coming off a game last night and the dominant team in this setting so they’ll dictate the pace of play which will be slow. The Mavs rank 29th in the league in tempo or possessions per game. When playing the second night of a back-to-back the Mavs are 8-1 to the Under and those games have averaged 205.2PPG. These two teams met a few weeks back and combined for 200 total points. More of the same today. Bet under! |
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01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls -5 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* Chicago Bulls -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 3:40 PM ET - We like the situation to play an elite team in the NBA off a disappointing loss, versus a bad team off a win. The Bulls are coming off a loss in San Antonio and have been solid at home when coming off a beat with a 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS record. Portland defeated the Rockets in their most recent game and have struggled in this situation with a 3-8 SU/ATS record when coming off a win and on the road. Portland is 7-15 SU away this year with the 4th worst point differential in the league at minus -8.4PPG. The Blazers have the 29th ranked road defensive efficiency and 22nd offensive efficiency numbers. Chicago is 17-6 SU at home with the 8th best average MOV at +4.7PPG. The Bulls were recently a -4-point home favorite over the Raptors who are playing much better than the Blazers and now this line is only a 1.5-points higher? |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl. |
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01-30-22 | Indiana State v. Bradley -7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot. |
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01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a big game last night versus the Jazz and are ripe for a letdown. Memphis is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, 3rd in four nights and 7th in thirteen days. Washington meanwhile has been off since the 25th and will come into this game well rested. The Wizards are getting healthy with Dinwiddie, Beal, Bryant and Hachimura all back in the lineup. Washington is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Clippers (lost by 1-point after leading by 35-points) the last time out and will be highly motivated here. Memphis is 5-4 SU when playing without rest, but their average margin of victory is minus -1.7PPG. The Wiz are a respectable 10-13 SU away from home on the season and not only do we like them to cover here, but we also won’t be surprised if they win outright. |
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01-29-22 | Middle Tennessee v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 93-85 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky -5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a huge home game for WKY. They are 2-5 on conference play and have lost 4 straight games but they are much better than their record. The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules in CUSA play so far having already faced the 3 highest rated teams in the league (UAB, North Texas, and La Tech). They were very competitive in all 3 of those losses getting topped by 1, 3, and 5 points. The most recent coming at home on Wednesday vs UAB the best team in the conference. WKY lost that game 68-65 and made only 4 out of 17 three pointers (24%) but still had the game tied with under 10 seconds to go when UAB made a 3 at the buzzer. MTSU, on the other hand, has played the easiest schedule in CUSA play and they have a 4-2 record. Their last 3 games were vs FIU, Southern Miss, and Marshall, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the league. They struggled big time @ Marshall (0-7 CUSA record) on Thursday night squeaking by with a 2 point win. The Blue Raiders trailed for most of the game but made 2 FT’s in the final seconds to win. MTSU was 0-6 SU on the road entering that game vs Marshall and they are now playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. They are a very poor 3-point shooting game (330th nationally) and they rely on getting to the FT line more than most teams. Problem here is Western Kentucky fouls as little as anyone in the nation allowing just 10.8% of opponents points to come from the stripe (lowest percentage in the country). The Hilltoppers are the much better offensive team ranking 3rd in CUSA (conference games) in eFG%, 3rd in 3 point %, and 4th in 2 point %. The are also the much bigger team, the more experience team, and they create bunches of TO’s (best in CUSA) which will make it difficult for an MTSU team that turns the ball over a lot. WKY is the better team despite their CUSA record and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. We’ll lay it. |
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01-28-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We successfully played against the Spurs the other night with part of our analysis touching on scheduling and fatigue being a factor for San Antonio. It showed late in the game and the Grizzlies took advantage with a cover. This isn’t a back to back for the Spurs but this will be their 9th game in sixteen days. The Bulls are 30-17 on the season and sit second in the East behind the Heat. Chicago went through a funk recently with a 4-6 SU record their last ten games but that was largely due to injuries to Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozen. Both are back here and played well in their most recent game, a win over Toronto. Chicago ranks in the top half of the NBA in most key statistical categories when playing on the road. The Spurs on the other hand rank 25th in defensive efficiency at home which will show in this game with the weapons the Bulls have offensively. Chicago is the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA, 1st in 3-point percentage and they should take advantage of a Spurs defense hemorrhaging points in the paint. The Bulls get this road win. |
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01-28-22 | Rhode Island +6.5 v. Dayton | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#877 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +6.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7 PM ET - We were on URI earlier this week vs Richmond and came up short as they lost 70-63. It was a game the Rams led by 15 in the 2nd half but were outscored 15-1 in the final 5:45 as URI did not make a single shot during that stretch. It was a game they should have won and they blew it. Dayton also played on Tuesday and squeaked by Fordham the 4th lowest rated team in the A10. Final score was 68-61 and Fordham played without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer in that game . Not overly impressive for Dayton. The Flyers are expected to have some ups and downs as they are the YOUNGEST team in college basketball. They start 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore and their first 3 players off the bench are also freshmen. As you would expect with a very young team, Dayton turns the ball over A LOT ranking 324th nationally in that category. URI is very good at creating turnovers defensively – 4th best in the conference – so this isn’t a great match up for Dayton when it comes to that. The Flyers also score most of their points from inside the arc (55% which is 31st most in the country) and that is the Rams strength on defense as they limit opponents to just 43% shooting from 2 point range – 9th best in the nation. Rhode Island has been a solid road team going 3-3 so far with losses @ Providence (one of the top teams in the Big East), @ Davidson by 4 (top rated team in the A10) and @ Florida Gulf Coast by 1. They are one of the better teams in the nation defensively (13th nationally in eFG% defense & allowing just 63 PPG). They are set up very well to cover as a dog and we think they have a great shot to win this one. Take the points. |
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01-27-22 | Flames v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Blues -140 over Calgary Flames, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this spot ever since these teams met on Monday at Calgary. That game ended up an embarrassing 7-1 loss for the Blues. Now the rematch is in St Louis and everything is set up perfectly for payback for the home team here. The Blues have been off since Monday's loss so they are well-rested here. The Flames were at Columbus last night so they are in a back to back spot and they used their #1 goalie last night Markstrom. That means it is likely back-up Daniel Vladar will be between the pipes for the Flames tonight. He has allowed 17 goals in his last 4 appearances! As for the Blues, they are expected to have Ville Husso between the pipes for this one as he was the first one to leave the ice at today's game-day skate. Husso has been superb of late with a 5-0 record in January and a sparkling 1.13 GAA in his 6 appearances this month! Prior to losing at Calgary, St Louis had won 13 of 17 games! The Flames, prior to last night's win over a struggling Blue Jackets team, had lost 4 straight road games and 6 of their last 8 away from home. Home ice edge, goalie edge, revenge factor, rest edge...it all combines for a super spot to back the hosts at a reasonable money line price here. Lay the money line price with the home fave here for a Top Game. |
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01-27-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +6.5 | Top | 44-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Southern Illinois +6.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Loyola and the Ramblers won 59-47. The game was much closer than that with Loyola leading by just 3 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Ramblers went on an 11-2 run in the final 3 minutes to win by 12. Southern Illinois shot terribly (33%) and made 5 fewer FT’s and still were in the game until the final few minutes on the road. SIU is better than their 10-10 record (3-5 in conference play). They have played the 3rd toughest schedule in league play and 7 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. Loyola has played the easiest schedule in league play and their 2 road wins in the MVC have come @ Evansville (last place in the conference) and Indiana State (2nd to last place in the conference). The Ramblers other 5 league games have all come at home. SIU is 3-1-1 ATS this year as a dog in MVC games and 6-3 ATS overall getting points. Their overall numbers at home (PPG, FG%, and 3 point %) are all much better than on the road as to be expected. We can expect Loyola to be in a letdown spot here after just beating Southern Illinois and with a huge game vs Drake, the team that sits in 2nd place behind them, on deck. Take the points. |
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01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 LA Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - When I started writing the analysis on this game the number was 220 but has since dropped to the current total but we still have value with the Under. The Lakers got Anthony Davis back who instantly give the Lakers a defensive presence in the paint and a rim protector they’ve been lacking. The Lakers have also focused on the defensive end of the court in recent games with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in their last five games. That’s a drastic improvement compared to their season rank of 14th. L.A. has also made a point of playing slower in recent games. On the season the Lakers average 100.4 possessions per game which ranks 3rd most, but in their last five games that number dips to 14th at 98.3 possession per game. Philly is also playing much slower with the 4th slowest tempo in the NBA over their last five games and on the season. The 76ers are 8th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 105.7, have the 13th best 3-point percentage defense and overall FG% defense. The Sixers are also missing one of their top offensive threats in this game with Seth Curry sidelined. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court and we see another low scoring game here. |
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01-26-22 | San Diego State v. Utah State +1.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State +1.5 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Utah State is in must win mode after starting MWC play with a 1-5 record. USU has played an extremely tough schedule this season (41st SOS) and 6 of their 9 losses have come by 5 points or less. They have an SOS of #2 in conference games and they have lost 4 in a row all by 7 points or less and their 2 home games during that stretch came by 2 vs Wyoming (4-1 conference record) and by 3 vs Boise State (7-0 conference record). The Aggies are much better than their 10-9 record and they are the only team in the Mountain West that ranks in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team was 20-9 last year and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They really need a win here and they are rested and getting healthy after a full week off. They catch San Diego State playing their 3rd game in 5 days. A very quick turnaround for the Aztecs after beating UNLV on Monday night. SDSU hasn’t played a road game since January 1st and their offense really struggles at times to say the least. On Saturday they scored only 37 points in a home loss to Boise. In road games they are averaging just 60 PPG while shooting 37% from the field and only 20% from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are very good defensively but you need to score some points to cover games on the road, especially as a favorite, and they simply don’t do that. These two conference rivals met 3 times last year and Utah State won 2 of those games. USU has been favored in every home game this year, including vs Boise last week who is undefeated in conference play. We like the value of the home dog here and we have Utah State winning this one. |
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01-26-22 | Mavs v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 132-112 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* UNDER 217 Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Mavs are coming off one of their worst defensive showings of the season when they allowed 130 points to the Warriors last night. Dallas is 14-33-1 UNDER on the season and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last nine games and 13 of their last fifteen. On the season the Mavericks are 5th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.072-points per possession. Dallas is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league at 95.8 possessions per game. The Blazers are slightly faster than the Mavs when it comes to pace but still rank as the 13th slowest in the NBA. The Mavs rank 22nd in offensive efficiency ratings and won’t take advantage of a poor Blazers defense. Portland has struggled offensively all season ranking 17th in offensive efficiency after finishing 2nd in that category a year ago. These are two poor shooting teams with the Blazers ranking 23rd in FG% offense, Dallas checks in at 20th with both teams shooting under 45%. Dallas is coming off a game last night and they are 8-0 UNDER this season when playing without rest and those games finished with only 200 total points. Bet UNDER. |
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01-26-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it! |
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01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210 Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These teams are easily two of the best defensive clubs in the NBA currently with the Warriors ranking 1st in defensive efficiency allowing 1.029-points per possession, Dallas is 4th at 1.067PPP. In their most recent 5 games the Mavs are 1st in DEFF, the Warriors are 4th. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the NBA in pace of play with the Warriors ranking 19th, Dallas 23rd. The Mavericks have stayed Under in 8 straight games and 13 of their last fourteen. Golden State has also favored the Under with a 7-4 record their last eleven games overall, with 5 of their last six at home staying below the number. When these two teams met earlier this month, they combined for 181 total points. Bet Under. |
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01-25-22 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 132.5 | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#617/618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met just 10 days ago and tallied 129 points with the final score Rutgers 70-59. They scored a bunch of points late as they had just 112 total points with 2:30 remaining in the game. If we can avoid a late flurry in this one we should be fine. Neither offense is great ranking 11th and 13th in the Big 10 in scoring. They rank 230th and 236th in offensive eFG%. Rutgers has shot ridiculously well from 3 point land in Big 10 play hitting 41% which would rank them 2nd in the country if they had shot that well the entire season. The fact is they shoot 34% from deep on the season (134th) and we can expect a regression to the mean. Defense is the strength of both of these teams with each ranking inside the top 75 in the country in adjusted efficiency. We really like the fact that these 2 rank 14th and 13th in Big 10 play at opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line. They simply don’t foul very much. Lastly, neither is an up tempo type team with Rutgers sits 12th in the league in tempo (conference play) and Maryland ranks 9th. Maryland showed some momentum defensively over the weekend holding a very good Illinois team to just 0.98 points per possession (Illini average 1.16 PPP on the season). Rutgers had one of their worst defensive performances allowing Minnesota to average 1.24 PPP and 54% shooting. Knights coach Pikiell was very upset with his team’s defensive effort and we can expect a very good outing on that end of the court tonight. Under is the play. |
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01-24-22 | Jazz v. Suns -9 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here. |
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01-24-22 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -6 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Illinois -6 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - South Dakota sits ahead of WIU in the Summit standings with a 4-3 record (WIU 3-4) but WIU is the better team by our metrics. South Dakota has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (348th) and they have played the easiest schedule so far in the Summit League (10th). They still have 3 conference losses despite that. They may look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but those wins have come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference with all 3 rank below 267th nationally. They Coyotes have struggled on the road with a 2-5 SU record and their only wins away from home came @ North Dakota who is 4-14 on the season and 0-5 in conference play and @ St Thomas who is 8-10 overall and 2-4 in league play. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 this season and they are 0-4 SU vs teams ranked higher than 200. WIU is coming off a home loss vs the top team in the conference, South Dakota State. They will be hungry for a win here as their 2 home games in conference play (both losses) have come vs the top 2 teams in the league. They are 6-0 in their other home games this season. Offensively they average 80 PPG and an even better 85 PPG at home. They should have success in this one vs a South Dakota defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% defense and 353rd in 3-point defense (out of 358). The Coyotes were just on the road in Minnesota on Saturday (St Thomas) and now they are in Illinois just 2 days later to play this make up game that was originally scheduled for last week. WIU has been at home since January 15th. Tough spot for the road team. Lay it. |
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01-23-22 | Hawks v. Hornets -3 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – LA Rams vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this year and the total was set at 55 points and the final score was Rams 34, Bucs 24 and the 2 combined for almost 900 yards of offense. This total is set a full TD lower which is too large of an over adjustment in our opinion. Our numbers have this total at 51 so value on the Over. Tampa is the 2nd highest scoring home team in the NFL averaging 33 PPG and that’s including a game where they were SHUT OUT by New Orleans. If you take out that one game vs the Saints, the Bucs scored at least 30 points in every other home game and averaged almost 38 PPG. Last week they had 31 points vs the Eagles with over 5:00 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER but had a huge lead, called off the dogs and didn’t score again. The Rams lit up the Cards last week for 34 points and in a similar situation to Tampa, 28 of those 34 points were scored with still over 4:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter and because they had such a big lead the Rams were able to dial it back and run clock on offense. The Rams were able to run the ball effectively last week once they got the lead (38 rush attempts) but that may change this week. Tampa is very good vs the run (3rd in the NFL) so we look for LA to air it out. The strength of both offenses is their passing attack (TB #1 in YPG passing and LA 5th) and the weakness of both defenses is vs the pass (TB 22nd in YPG passing allowed and LA 21st). Tampa played a lot of up tempo offense last week vs Philly and we expect the same here. Both teams like to push the pace with the Bucs ranking 4th in pace of play and the Rams 11th. Tampa games averaged 51 total points this year and LA averaged 49 total points and this total is set lower than both. Weather looks good in Tampa and we envision this one as a game where each offense needs to keep up on the scoreboard. The projected final based on the spread and total is Tampa 25.5, LA 22.5 and we have both offenses topping those projections. Take the OVER in this one. |
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01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home. |
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01-22-22 | Pacers v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams met Jan 14th in Indiana and that game finished with 206 total points which finished well Under the number of 219.5. The Pacers managed just 94 points in the contest and that was with their full complement of players. Indiana just played and beat Golden State on the road with their top 6 players out of the lineup. The bench and role players stepped up for that game but don’t expect a repeat performance. A big anomaly in the game against GST was the Pacers 3-point shooting as they made 15 of 35 3’s. Indiana is 26th in the NBA in 3-point percentage shooting and won’t have another big night from beyond the arc against the Suns defense which is 3rd in points allowed, 1st in FG% D, 5th in 3pt% D and 8th in rebounding. The Pacers are 17th in scoring this year averaging 108.3PPG. Phoenix allows the 5th fewest points per game at home this season where their games have averaged 216 total points. Indiana’s road games have averaged 214 total points. Both teams are trending around average in pace of play their last five games so it won’t be an up-and-down affair. This shapes up to be an easy UNDER. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee. |
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01-22-22 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one. |
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01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here. |
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01-21-22 | Evansville v. Illinois State -7.5 | Top | 56-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points. |
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01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly. |
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01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks, 7:35 PM ET - Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams. The Knicks are THE slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are 21st slowest at 97.1. Most recently in their last five games both are playing slower yet. New York gives up the 6th fewest points per game in the league and New Orleans is 24th in scoring. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.092-points per possession, New Orleans is 25th at 1.082PPP. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 43.8% for New York and 43.7% for the Pelicans. The Knicks are on a 7-0 UNDER run when they are favored, the Pelicans are 5-1 UNDER in their last six overall. We don’t see this game getting over 205 total points. |
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01-19-22 | Pistons v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 133-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days. |
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01-19-22 | Iowa v. Rutgers +3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +3.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Rutgers is on a nice little roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. They’re unbeaten at home in Big 10 play with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa has played 3 conference road games losing 2 of those. Their lone Big 10 road win was on Sunday @ Minnesota facing a Gopher team without 2 of their best players in the line up (Curry & Sutherlin). The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this year (10-1 record) but their numbers drop off drastically on the road. When compared to their overall season numbers, Iowa averages 15 fewer PPG, -4% shooting, and -%7 percent from deep when playing on the road. Last year Iowa had their best team they’ve had in 20 seasons and they were -3 @ Rutgers and struggled to get by with a 77-75 win. Rutgers is the much better defensive team (54th in defensive efficiency to 158th for Iowa) and they are the bigger team. Iowa will struggle inside the arc offensively in this game. The Knights are 9-1 SU at home this season and 37-6 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. We like the host to win this one outright. |
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01-18-22 | Panthers v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
#33/34 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET – In hockey, when a team is winning and scoring a lot of goals it tends to build momentum like a snowball picking up more and more snow when rolling down a hill. The Panthers are having a lot of fun right now scoring goals and playing winning hockey and that is why they have not hesitated in piling it on against teams even when up big. Florida recently had a 9-2 win when they caught Columbus on what was a listless night for the Blue Jackets. That big Panthers win is all part of a run of 8 wins in 9 games and all 9 of these games for Florida have totaled at least 7 goals! Yes 9 in a row totaling 7 or more and, in fact, the average score of these games is Florida 6 to 3. We are looking for another wild one tonight because Calgary has allowed 4 or more goals in 7 of the last 9 games. The Flames are off a low-scoring loss but this was following a 5-game stretch in which Calgary averaged 3.4 goals per game. The Flames last 7 games have averaged totaling 7 goals per game and couple that with the crazy run that the Panthers are on right now and we just can not see this game staying under 7 goals. Look for Florida games to make it 10 IN A ROW in terms of games totaling AT LEAST 7 goals! As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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01-18-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6.5 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We expect UT to play with an extra effort here after getting absolutely embarrassed over the weekend @ Kentucky. The Vols lost that game 107-79 and the Wildcats averaged a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession in the win. It was the first time since 2006 that the Vols allowed a team to reach 100 points. That was a enormously poor effort from the UT defense that STILL ranks 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency even after that performance allowing just 0.89 PPP. UK is ranked 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and now the Volunteers face a Vandy team that ranks 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency. We expect the Commodores to struggle on offense vs one of the top defenses in the nation who will play with a little extra passion here. Vandy’s home court advantage has been little to none this year as 5 of their 6 losses have come at home. They are just 2-4 SU vs top 100 teams this year with all 4 losses coming by double digits. While Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule is ranked outside the top 100, Tennessee has played one of the toughest slates in the country (14th SOS). The Vols come in with 5 losses on the season and ALL 5 have come vs teams ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 17 (Villanova, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech). UT was favored by 12 @ Vandy last year (won 70-58) and now they are laying half that number despite the Vols ranking 14th this year (per Ken Pom) while they were 28th last year when this game tipped off. Vandy is off a 7 point win over UGA (the lowest rated team in the SEC) but they are running into a buzzsaw here. The Vols have won 5 in a road @ Vanderbilt and this is a must win type of game after their blowout loss. Lay it. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 49.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – Arizona vs LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The first 2 meetings had totals set at 51 & 54 points and both went Over. Now the total for this 3 match up is set lower than the first 2 despite the first 2 going Over? Hmm… In what would be a surprise to most, both of these defenses rank higher in DVOA (5th & 6th) per Football Outsiders than do their offenses. In their weighted DVOA, which doesn’t look at the entire season but more so how the teams have performed as of late, the Cards rank 18th offensively and the Rams 14th. Since WR Hopkins was lost a few weeks ago the Cardinals have averaged only 20.7 PPG over their last 4. Prior to QB Murray’s injury, the Arizona offense was averaging 31 PPG and has been far less dynamic since his return averaging just 23 PPG. The Rams defense has held each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. Over the last 10 games LA is allowing just 22 PPG and that’s with their QB Stafford throwing FOUR pick 6’s! Take out those and the Rams are allowing only 19 PPG during that stretch. Both these teams know each other very well and with the 3rd meeting of the year, we’re expecting a lower scoring game. The projected final of this game is LA 27, Arizona 23 and our simulations have both teams falling just short of those numbers. Take the Under tonight. |
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01-17-22 | Wyoming v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight. |
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01-17-22 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
#150 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -12.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Pitts key numbers say they shouldn’t even be in this position. In fact, they say this team is a below .500 type team. The Steelers are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential and a negative YPP differential. When these two met a few weeks ago KC dominated and we don’t see anything changing here. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and led 23-0 at halftime. They outgained the Steelers by nearly 1.5 YPP and by more than 4.0 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rebounded after that loss to beat Cleveland (who looked like they had given up on the season) and Baltimore in OT (Ravens played back up QB). Pitt was outgained in 7 of their last 8 games and they simply don’t have the offense to keep up here. The KC defense allowed just 10 PPG over their last 6 home games and the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and aren’t particularly good at running (24th) or passing (24th). They were held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while KC topped 30 in 4 of their last 5 games. Pitt will want to run the ball and control the clock to keep Mahomes off the field. That’s what they wanted to do the first game as well but when you get behind quickly (23-0 at half in first meeting) that plan goes out the window. We see a similar situation on Sunday night. Double Digit favorites in the Wild Card round are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 2001 and we see another ATS winner being added to that record. Lay it with the Chiefs. |
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01-16-22 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 216 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - First off we’ll apologize for this shorter analysis but its football Sunday and time is limited. This game features two of the top 12 teams in scoring this season with both averaging over 109PPG. GST is 11th in offensive efficiency at 1.113-points per possession and 12th in overall pace of play on the year. Minnesota is 6th in pace and will want to play fast here at home. Most recently, in their last five games the Wolves have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.170PPP. The Wolves are on a 5-0 Over streak against a team with a winning record, Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run against teams with a losing record. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished with more than 233 total points. Yes, we know there is not Steph Curry here, but they do have Klay Thompson back in the mix and their best defender Draymond Green is out. BET OVER! |
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01-15-22 | Oregon v. USC -6 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* USC -6 over Oregon, Saturday at 11 PM ET - Great value here with the Trojans. As of this write up they are laying just 6 at home vs Oregon who is playing their 2nd straight road game. Because USC struggled a bit at home on Thursday with Oregon State (won by 10) and Oregon upset UCLA in OT this line is off. The Ducks opened +11 @ UCLA and we have USC rated the EXACT same (within 2 spots) of UCLA and this line is just 6. Now way the Bruins are 5 points better than the Trojans on a neutral site which is what this line suggests. A letdown is in order here for Oregon and this is a very tough spot as they are playing their 3rd road game in 6 days (Beat Oregon St by 2 on Monday and UCLA in OT on Thursday). USC is a fantastic defensive team that has held 12 of their 15 opponents to 40% or less from the field. Not a great match up for an Oregon team that shoots just 43% on the road and just 32% from deep. These teams have faced off here @ USC 3 times since the start of the 2019 season and the Trojans have won those games by 17, 14, and 14 points. We love this spot for USC and we’ll lay the points. |
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01-15-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 209 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 209 Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big games last night so we expect both defenses to be lax here in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. This Total is set significantly lower than the league average of points scored of 216.8PPG. Miami relies on their 3-point shooting on offense with the 2nd best league average at 37.8%. The Heat have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA right now in the last five games at 1.214PPP. The 76ers have also been highly efficient in their last five averaging 1.126PPP which is 10th best in the league. Over their last five games the Sixers are shooting 47.9% which is up from their season average of 46.1%. As we mentioned before, this is the second game of a back-to-back and these two teams combined are OVER 8-1-1 when playing without rest and those games averaged 216.8 and 220.8PPG. The Bet here is OVER! |
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01-15-22 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -6 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is an absolute huge home game for Tech. They have underachieved but they are much better than their 8-7 record. They are 0-4 in the ACC and after this game they play 3 consecutive road games which basically makes this a must win. The Hokies enter this game off 3 straight losses (vs Duke, NC State, and Virginia) and Notre Dame has won 6 straight yet Tech is favored by 6. That alone speak volumes. The average rating of ND’s last 6 opponents, all wins, is 160 and 4 of those games were at home. The Irish have played 3 road games thus far in the ACC and they are vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. They lost by 16 @ BC, beat Ga Tech in OT, and beat Pitt by 1. Va Tech has a fantastic defense ranked 26th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 41st in eFG% defense. Where they really excel is defending the arc allowing 26% good for 9th in the nation. Bad news for ND who lives at the 3-point line with 39% of their points coming from deep – 32nd in the nation – and they are even better at home hitting 41% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, VT is a great 3-point shooting team hitting 39% of their triples (15th best in the country) and the Irish struggle to defend the arc allowing 34% or 200th nationally. This one sets up really well for the home team in must win mode vs a road team that’s played very easy conference slate thus far (2nd easiest in the ACC). Lay it with Virginia Tech. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
#141 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas +6 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Many feel this might just be a letdown spot for the Raiders coming off a Sunday Night OT win over the Chargers, a game they needed just to get to this point. However, it’s the playoffs and we don’t see a letdown coming in this one. Is it an ideal situation? No but it’s no different than a team playing on Monday night during the regular season with a turnaround game on Sunday. We don’t feel Cincy is in a position to be laying nearly a TD here. They have a young QB who has never been in the playoffs and a head coach who has never coached in the playoffs. The Raiders have been in a win or go home mode for weeks now and they’ve responded with 4 straight wins, including @ Indy and vs the Chargers last week. They are used to this situation. For the season Vegas has a better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.4) and a better YPG differential (+25 YPG to +11 YPG) despite playing the much tougher schedule (LV SOS was 8th and Cincy was 30th). The Bengals did beat Las Vegas when they met this season but the 32-13 final score was very misleading. The game was 16-13 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Neither team did much offensively both getting held under 290 total yards. Home favorites of -7 or less in the wildcard round have been terrible for nearly 20 years (14-28 ATS). We expect a tight game here with both offenses playing it conservatively (neither team has been in the playoffs as of late). |
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01-14-22 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
#889 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU +3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll be honest. We don’t love taking road teams in college hoops unless the situation is right. One thing we do need most of the time when siding with a road team is good defense which travels. Teams can lose their shooting acumen at times on the road, but defense is a constant. That’s absolutely what we have here with VCU. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 3rd in 3 point % defense, 14th in 2 point % defense, and 8th in PPG allowed. This team is simply as good as it gets defensively. Their offensive numbers for the season are not great but they are absolutely trending in the right direction on that end of the court as well. The Rams have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including topping 80 points in each of their last 2 games. If they do that, they are pretty much unbeatable with the defense they play. They are a perfect 4-0 SU on the road this year including 2 wins over top 100 teams Vanderbilt and Dayton. They average more PPG offensively in road games and allow fewer PPG away from home. This team just simply seems to play better away from home. St Bonnies is a solid team but they need to knock some rust off. They’ve only played one game since December 17th and that was an OT win @ LaSalle on Tuesday. For a recent reference point, VCU just played LaSalle on the road as well last Saturday and dominated the game beating the Explorers by 19 points. The Bonnies defense isn’t nearly at the level of VCU’s ranking 109th in adjusted efficiency and 235th guarding the arc. They have allowed 8 of their last 10 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession which isn’t great. For comparison’s sake, VCU has not allowed a single opponent to score 1.00 PPP in a game this year. Zippo in 14 games. The closest was Baylor who put up 0.99 PPP in their 8 point win over VCU and the Bears rank 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. Take the points with the better team and the better defense in this one. |
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01-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 87-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game here between the Raptors and Pistons with a predicted finish of 220+ by our computer analytics. Toronto is coming off a defensive grinder against the Suns and will be eager to get their offensive rhythm back prior to a much bigger game tomorrow night versus the Bucks. The Raptors were averaging 118PPG in their 6 previous games before facing a Suns defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.049-points per possession. Toronto’s 9th best offensive efficiency should have a much easier time scoring tonight against a Pistons defense that ranks 22nd in DEFF and allows 111.3PPG which is 24th. Looking at the Pistons last ten games we see they’ve allowed 133, 140 and 144 points so the potential for a really big number from Toronto is not out of question. Detroit is one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA but they are the 8th fastest which means plenty of possessions. The Raptors aren’t much better defensively than the Pistons as they give up 1.118-points per possession which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in November and put up 248 points. It won’t be that high tonight but it will be more than the 214 set by the oddsmakers. |
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01-13-22 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 215 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - This number is set slightly lower than the average NBA total right now of 216.6PPG but our math model suggests that this game will not get 210. It starts with pace for both teams with the Clippers checking in at 15th and the Pelicans slower yet at 20th. In their most recent 5 games both are playing slower yet and that shouldn’t change here. If we look at LA’s last five games, we see they are 28th in offensive efficiency at 1.016-points per possession, shooting just 42.9% from the field. New Orleans has been one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season averaging 105.7PPG on 43.7% shooting (26th) and 33.8% 3-point shooting which is 23rd. The Clippers have a top 8 defense in FG% D, 3PT% D and points allowed, giving up 105.3PPG. The Pels have some bad defensive numbers of late but the games they’ve allowed teams to score big numbers have come against some of the league’s elite offenses (Wolves, Suns, Jazz, Bucks) who all rank top 11 in scoring. The Clippers are 23rd in the NBA in average points per game. This is an UNDER BET! |
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01-13-22 | Sabres v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#13/14 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals - Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET – The set-up here is ideal to expect plenty of goals. The Predators are off a 5-4 OT win over Colorado. That was a big win for Nashville and they have a tough match-up at Boston on deck. That makes this a tricky spot as the Preds take on the lowly Sabres and potentially overlook them which is going to lead to some goal-scoring for Buffalo in this one. The issue for the Sabres though is that they can not stop opponents and they are dealing with a cluster of issues at the goalie position! Luukkonen and Subban have injuries and Tokarski has been out due to covid. Buffalo will turn to Aaron Dell in goal tonight. Dell has received plenty of goal-scoring support in his starts with Buffalo scoring at least 4 goals in 3 of the 4. The problem is that the Sabres have surrendered an average of 5.5 goals in his 4 starts! Now Dell and the Sabres are visiting a Nashville club that has scored an average of 4.20 goals in winning 5 straight games! In fact, over the last 14 games (12-2 stretch for Predators) it has been a scoring average of just under 4 goals per game! The Predators have allowed just under 3 goals per game last 7 games and we fully expect a 5 to 3 type game here. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -3.5 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 7 PM ET - MTSU is just glad to be back at home after not playing here since mid December. The Blue Raiders are coming off 3 straight losses, all on the road. Two of those losses were vs Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern Conference, and then a 7 point loss @ UNT, the 3rd ranked team in CUSA. We were impressed how they fought a very good North Texas team in a very tough spot. MTSU was coming off a tight road loss @ Rice just 2 nights earlier and catching UNT off a rare home loss. FAU, on the other hand, upset Marshall on the road Saturday as 5 points dogs. The Herd played without one of their better players (Darius George) while FAU shot lights out at 54% which was more than 10% higher than their road average coming into the game. The Owls were 0-3 in road games entering that won with losses vs High Points, New Mexico, and VCU. That was a rare road win for Florida Atlantic on Saturday and with that win they’ve still won just 5 of their last 23 true road games. They are a poor defensive team (276th in eFG% defense) and more so on the road where they have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their shots from the field. Defending the arc is a huge problem for the Owls as well ranking 353rd allowing a ridiculous 41% on the season. They also turn the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions which is not good vs MTSU who is very adept at creating turnovers (41st nationally). It’s a double revenger for Middle Tennessee after losing both meetings last year. Both were on the road on back to back nights as that’s the way the played it last year with the Covid situation. Now they get FAU to play FAU here at home and the Raiders will play with urgency coming off 3 losses. Lay it. |
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01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this bet as the Bulls are playing their 4th game in seven days and the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight when they face the Nets. Of course, playing status can change throughout the day but as of now the Nets will have their Big 3 in the lineup with Irving, Durant and Harden. The Nets had won 3 straight road games prior to a loss in Portland the other night, but they were without Harden. The Bulls have been a great surprise this season and are playing well but their 9-1 SU results recently are misleading. In their last nine wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record (Washington 21-20 SU) and they lost the lone game against a winning team in Dallas. Brooklyn is looking up at the Bulls in the standings and have lost to them twice already this season making this game a little more important for them. The glaring advantage the Nets have in this game is their 3-point defense which is 1st in the league compared to the Bulls which ranks 20th. |
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01-12-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#695/696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Minnesota vs Michigan State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some solid value on the Under in this game. Our numbers have this one landing in the mid 130’s. These 2 met in December and the final score was MSU 75, Minnesota 67 so they tallied 142 total points. The set total in that game was 135 so because they went Over in the first game this one is now 5 points higher. The fact is the first game was very fortunate to reach the point total it did. At halftime it was on pace for 122 points. With 1:00 minute remaining these 2 teams had combined for 129 points and scored 13 in the final minute. Michigan State likes to play at a faster pace but Minnesota is one of the slower teams in the Big 10 (13th in the conference in pace) and they know to have a chance here they can’t get in an up & down game with Sparty. Expect Minnesota to control the tempo here. Both teams are very good defensively (20th & 66th in defensive efficiency) and both defend the 3 as well as anyone in the nation (MSU 27th defending the arc & Minnesota 11th). Both teams limit their fouls and are very good at keeping their opponents off the FT line – only 22 FT’s made in the first meeting. Prior to scoring 142 in the first meeting this year these two rivals only topped 137 once in their previous 9 meetings. Under is the play. |
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01-11-22 | Suns -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Any chance we get to back an elite team off a bad loss we’ll consider it and tonight we get that opportunity with the Suns. Phoenix lost their most recent game at home to Miami 100-123, and it was never close. The Suns shot just 38% for the game which was below their season average of 47.3% which is 3rd best in the NBA. Phoenix is 13-4 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +5.4PPG which is also 3rd best in the league. Toronto is playing well right now with 6 straight wins, but we’re not overly impressed with that resume considering the competition included New Orleans, San Antonio, the Knicks and Clippers. The two wins over the Bucks and Jazz in that stretch is misleading as the Bucks were without 3 starters including Giannis and the Jazz sat everyone that game. Toronto really doesn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (12-10 SU) as fans aren’t allowed in Canada. Phoenix is 25-11 SU off since the start of last season with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Easy call with a focused Phoenix team. |
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01-10-22 | North Dakota State v. Denver +5 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
#886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Denver is playing their best basketball of the year right now and we feel they are undervalued. 3 of their best performances of the season have come in their last 5 games including an easy 19 point win over North Dakota here on Saturday. The Pioneers have won 3 of their last 4 home games with their only loss coming by 4 points in OT. Their record looks poor at 6-11 but we need to take into account they played a brutal schedule from late November through mid December. During that stretch they played 6 consecutive road games in an 18 day span that were all losses. Since that stretch Denver is 3-2 SU with an OT loss (mentioned above) and a loss @ Oral Roberts, the 2nd highest rated team in the Summit. They have shot 49% during that stretch (their seasonal average is 46%) and averaged 76 PPG (seasonal average 69 PPG). NDSU hasn’t been great on the road where they have a losing record. They were barely able to get by @ Nebraska Omaha on Saturday, the worst team in the Summit, winning by 4 despite taking 13 more FT attempts. Now 2 days later they are on the road again, in altitude, which will be tough for a team that basically plays 7 guys. The Bison average 13 fewer PPG away from home this year (72 PPG overall and 59 PPG on the road) and shoot nearly 10% lower from the field (44% overall and 35% on the road). In Saturday’s win vs Omaha they were only able to average 0.89 PPP vs a team that ranks 346th nationally in defensive efficiency. They’re catching Denver playing confident basketball and we think the Pioneers have a solid shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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01-10-22 | 76ers -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets look like a dumpster fire right now and are in a tough spot here coming off a game yesterday, playing their 3rd game in four days AND facing a rested Sixers team. Houston gave up 141 points last night to Minnesota and continue to be the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets give up 127.8PPG on the season and 1.233-points per possession. Houston is getting beat by an average of -8.6PPG on the season, but in their last five games they have a negative differential of minus -14.4PPG. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing really well right now with a +/- differential of +12.4PPG in their last five games. In that same span of five games the Sixers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers. These two teams just played in Philly earlier this month with the 76ers winning by 20 points. Philadelphia is rested and will be primed for a big road win here. Lay it. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like UGA to win this rematch after getting embarrassed a month ago in the SEC Championship game. We’re getting value with the Dawgs in this one favored by 2.5 after being favored by 6.5 in the first meeting. The line has moved a full 4 points based on just one data point which was the first meeting. Georgia was the best team in the country all season long and we don’t think one hiccup changes that. Prior to the meeting in the SEC Championship Georgia was the much more dominant team. Their defense didn’t allow more than 17 points in any game and they won every game but one by at least 3 scores. Bama lost to a A&M team that finished with 4 losses and had 4 other games decided by one score. For the season, prior meeting included, UGA has dominated opponents with a +3.0 YPP differential while Alabama is +2.1 in that category. The Dawgs are also the healthier team entering this game as Bama will be without top WR Metchie (who had 97 yards receiving & a TD in first match up), their top CB Jobe is out, and a few starting offensive linemen may not play. The Georgia defense, the best in the country, will be salty to prove a point here after allowing a ridiculous 536 yards in the first meeting (UGA had 450 yards). Two interceptions by Georgia QB Bennett, one returned for a TD, didn’t help matters. There is a misnomer that floats around this time of year that Alabama HC Saban is simply unbeatable when he gets to this game. Not true. The Tide has been to the CFB Championship game 5 times, they are 3-2 SU in those games and 1-4 ATS. We’ve had UGA power rated all season long as the best team and we’ll stick with that. The revenge situation makes this even better. Take Georgia. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Las Vegas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This one is for all the marbles. The winner makes the playoffs and the loser is eliminated. Charger games average 54 total points which is the most in the NFL. This offense is clicking to say the least 28 points in each of their last 4 games. LA has gone Over the total in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10. While their offense is one of the best in the NFL, their defense has been one of the worst ranking 30th in rushing defense, 23rd in overall defense, and 26th in scoring defense. Over their last 10 games only 1 team failed to reach 21 points on this LA defense and that was Denver last week with Drew Lock at QB. If you throw out the Chargers first 4 games of the season where the defense seemed to be playing pretty well, they have allowed an average of 29 PPG over the last 12. The Raider defense has decent overall numbers but their solid defensive performances have come vs poor offenses. Just in the last 10 games they’ve faced 4 offenses ranked 20th or lower in scoring (Washington, NY Giants, Denver, and Cleveland) and allowed an average of 17 PPG. In their other 6 games (over the last 10) Vegas has allowed 33 PPG including giving up 48 & 41 to KC, 33 to Dallas, and 32 to Cincinnati. LV is a middle to upper half of the NFL type offense in YPG (11th), YPP (9th) & PPG (18th) but we like them to have success at home here vs a defense that has struggled. Both teams pull out all the stops offensively in this win or go home game and it goes OVER the total in perfect playing conditions in Las Vegas. |
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01-09-22 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +1.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland +1.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - The Badgers have started the New Year with a bang beating Purdue on the road and stomping Iowa at home. This is still a very young team that will have ups and downs this season and this is a really tough spot for them on the road after those 2 huge wins. Maryland is a solid team and they are in must win mode. The Terps have started the Big 10 season 0-3 with losses @ Iowa, @ Illinois, and vs Northwestern. They can’t afford to lose this one at home before they take to the road again next Wednesday. Maryland is 8-6 on the season but they’ve been very competitive with all but one of their losses going to the wire. They’ve actually held the lead in the 2nd half in all but one of their losses so this team is much better than their record. Wisconsin is not a great shooting team ranking 275th in eFG% and 302nd in 3 point percentage but they thrive at getting to the FT line (21% of their points come from the stripe). Maryland does a very good job at not fouling so the Badgers will have problems getting to the line on the road in this one. This line has been over adjusted due to recent results. Wisconsin was just a 13 point dog @ Purdue earlier this week and now they are favored @ Maryland? We have the Terps as a small favorite here and expect them to get the win in their first home game as an underdog this season. |
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01-09-22 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 141-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - Houston is coming off a 106-130 loss to the Mavericks and the significance of that game is the following. The Mavs are one of the slowest pace teams in the NBA ranking 28 out of 30 teams. Minnesota is one of the fastest ranking 8th. Dallas averages just 105.6PPG and they managed 130 versus this Rockets defense which is not a surprise considering Houston ranks 2nd to last in the league in defensive efficiency. In their last five games the Rockets are giving up an average of 124PPG. Minnesota has their Big 3 back on the court with Towns, Russell and Edwards and they’ll play fast and score plenty of point to help this game get Over the number. The Wolves are 14th in scoring this season at 109PPG. Houston is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA which means plenty of possessions for both teams and more scoring opportunities. When these same two teams met in October, they combined for 230 points. The bet here is OVER! |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a tough week to handicap the NFL as we all know. Who plays their starters if they’ve already clinched a playoff spot? Which teams that are eliminated are still giving effort and who isn’t? Covid situation? We can look to past experience for this one and know that for the most part, Belichick plays his starters late in the season and still plays to win. That’s what we expect from the Pats. On top of that, they do still have something to play for as a win here + a Buffalo loss gives New England the AFC East title. If there is a team that could possibly tank it in this game it’s Miami. They were in the playoff race until last week and now have been eliminated with their 34-3 blowout at the hands of Tennessee. The Fins looked as if they were playing very well entering that game on a 7 game winning streak but they played a bunch of nobodies during that run including the Jets (twice), Texans, Panthers, and Giants. As soon as they stepped up in competition last week they were whitewashed in a game they had to win. They’ve taken care of business vs the teams they were supposed to beat covering 6 of their last 7 as a favorite. The Pats only 2 losses since mid October were vs the Bills & Colts, 2 of the best teams in the AFC. This is also a revenger as Miami won at New England in the season opener 17-16. The Patriots dominated the stat sheet in that one (+145 yards) and it was QB Jones first start of his career. The better team with motivation rolls here. |
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01-08-22 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 132.5 | Top | 43-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#797/798 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 132 St Mary’s @ BYU, 10 PM ET - This is a big rivalry between two teams fighting for the 2nd spot in the West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga. Both teams are outstanding defensively with BYU check in with the 29th best defensive efficiency rating in college basketball allowing .93-points per possession. Those numbers are legit as they come against 35th toughest schedule to date. As good as the Cougars defensive numbers are, St Mary’s is better. The Gaels rank 12th in DEFF allowing .905PPP and they’ve faced the 64th toughest schedule. St Mary’s has allowed 60 or less points in 9 of their last eleven games. The other big key here is tempo. The Gaels rank 304th in tempo and have an average possession length of 18.5 seconds. In this heated rivalry these two teams have combined for 116 and 114 total points in the last two meetings a year ago. This game should be another low scoring defensive affair. |
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns OVER 216.5 | Top | 123-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 217 Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - We’ve been successful on several occasions recently with the OVER in the Heat game and will go back to the well today. Without a proven rim protector on defense teams are in attack mode when they face the Heat. Miami averages just 3.1 blocks per game which is last in the NBA and most recently in their last five games that average dips to just 2.0BPG. Miami is allowing over 112PPG in their last five games and their defense efficiency rates near the bottom of the NBA. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Heat though and they recently got two of their best shooters back in the lineup with the return of Duncan and Strus. In the last five games the Heat are scoring 115PPG and have the 5th best offensive efficiency rating. Miami is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA on the year at 37.3% but in their last five games that number improves to 41%. On the other side of the court we have the Suns who rank 3rd overall in scoring this season at 112.4PPG, 8th in offensive efficiency and 5th in pace of play. Phoenix is the 2nd best shooting team in the league at 47.5% and 5th in 3-point percentage at 36.9%. The Suns have some gaudy offensive numbers in recent games with 123 and 133 points in two of their last three games. This total is set slightly higher than league average of 216.8 and our analytics suggest it will be much higher scoring than that. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
#477/478 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Kansas City vs Denver, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - KC has clinched the AFC West already but they do still potentially have something to play for. If they win and Tennessee loses @ Houston (unlikely) the Chiefs can move up to the #1 seed. We love the way KC’s defense is playing right now. The only 2 poor outings they’ve had over their last 9 games were vs the Bengals & Chargers, two of the better offenses in the NFL. In their other 7 games the KC defense has not allowed more than 17 points and they held 4 of those opponents to 10 points or less. The Denver offense has been terrible as of late scoring 13 or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Bridgewater is out at QB for the Broncos and his back up Lock has done nothing the last 2 weeks. They’ve scored 13 points in each of their last 2 games while totaling 158 yards vs Las Vegas and 319 yards vs the LA Chargers who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (26th in scoring defense). In their last 5 meetings with the Chiefs the Broncos have scored an average of just 10 PPG and they haven’t topped 16 points in any of those games. Earlier this year they scored only 9 points @ KC in a 22-9 loss. Denver will struggle to score here vs this hot KC defense. The Broncos defense is the strength of their team to say the least. They rank 9th in total defense and 3rd in points scored allowing just 18 PPG. They’ve had some solid success vs Mahomes and company holding them to 23 or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. The only chance Denver has is to make this a very slow paced type game which they are used to ranking 29th in the NFL in that category. KC may play fast early but if they get a lead they are known for milking the clock in the 2nd half (15th in 2nd half pace) in that situation. The Under is 5-1-1 the last 7 in this AFC West rivalry and we expect another one here. |
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01-08-22 | Oral Roberts -1.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -1.5 over Western Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - WIU is improved this year after finishing 7-15 a year ago but much of that is due to an easy schedule (321st SOS). Almost half of their games (7) have come vs teams ranked below 300 or non Division 1 teams. This ORU team will be the highest ranked team WIU has played this season. The Leathernecks are not playing well right now losing 3 straight games, including a 6 points loss vs Nebraska Omaha who is ranked as the 338th team in the nation (out of 358 teams). We have a very solid comparison point with these 2 teams as they’ve each played the same 3 conference teams in their last 3 Summit League games. Those teams were Denver (ORU won by 17 / WIU won by 4 on OT), Nebraska Omaha (ORU won by 35 points / WIU lost by 6), and St Thomas (ORU won by 15 / WIU lost by 13). This is a terrible match up for Western as Oral Roberts loves to shoot the 3 and they are solid at doing so (38% which is 24th nationally) while the Leathernecks are really bad at defending the arc (324th nationally). On the other end of the court Western Illinois also gets a bunch of their points from beyond the arc but the Golden Eagles are one of the best at defending the 3 point line allowing just 29% (46th nationally). ORU has 6 losses on the season, however 5 of those came vs teams ranked inside the top 100. WIU, on the other hand, has played only 1 team all season ranked inside the top 100 (21 point loss). We’ll lay this small number on the road. |
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01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are not in a good situation here playing their 5th straight road game and are short-handed without their second and third leading scorers, Kelson Johnson and Derrick White. Also out tonight are key reserves Vassell and Young. The 76ers have a few players out too but have their key players available in Embiid, Harris and Curry. The Sixers are 7-8 SU at home but come into this game having won 5 straight games. Their most recent home game was a 20-point blowout win over the Rockets. San Antonio is 8-12 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. In their last five games the 76ers have some impressive numbers with the 9th best defensive efficiency and the 4th best offensive efficiency rating. In comparison the Spurs are 27th in OEFF their last five games, 17th in DEFF. Lastly, the 76ers have a +12.8PPG average differential their last 5 games and our analytics say that will be the margin here. Bet Philly |
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01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies OVER 217.5 | Top | 88-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Pistons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and it showed last night when they allowed 140 points last night to Charlotte. On the season the Pistons allowed 111PPG, are the 29th worst FG% defense, 28th defending the 3-points line and 24th in defensive rebounding. Memphis is quietly putting together a fantastic season having won 6 straight to improve to 25-14 on the year. The Grizzlies are 5th in scoring at 111.3PPG but have averaged over 115PPG in their last six games. Detroit is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 12th so expect plenty of possessions to push this game over the Total. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge early season game for the Hoosiers. They currently sit with a 1-2 Big 10 record and they can’t afford to drop to 1-3 with a home loss. OSU is 3-0 on the season but they are fortunate to be in that spot as they nearly lost @ Nebraska on Sunday. The Huskers, rated 141st nationally and the only Big 10 team outside the top 100, led OSU by 5 points with 35 seconds remaining in the game on Sunday. A late key 3 pointer by OSU and missed FT’s by Nebraska sent the game to OT where the Buckeyes won. OSU shot nearly 50% from 3 point land (16 of 34) and still struggled to put away the worst team in the Big 10 on the road. IU will be highly motivated coming off a 3-point loss @ Penn State. Sort of the opposite of the Buckeye win on Sunday, Indiana shot very poorly @ PSU hitting just 39% overall and only 23% from beyond the arc and still had 2 shots in the final 10 seconds to tie the game missing both. IU could easily be undefeated on the season as their 3 losses were all tight road games including a OT loss @ Syracuse and a 5-point loss @ Wisconsin a game they led by 20 points before the Badgers made a furious comeback. The Hoosiers have the best defense in the Big 10 ranking 14th nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG% allowed and 1st in the nation at defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 39%. IU is unblemished at home with a 9-0 record and 7 of those wins coming by double digits. A great defense at home in a must win spot has been a solid long term money maker and we’ll jump on the Hoosiers here. |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -1 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - ISU is coming off their first loss of the season on Saturday getting tripped up at home 77-72 by Baylor – Ken Pom’s #1 rated team. In that game the Cyclones made ONE three pointer in 14 attempts which put them at 7% from beyond the arc. Even with that, they made a nice comeback and nearly took out the Bears. Prior to that loss ISU was 12-0, including 4-0 vs top 50 teams with 3 of those 4 wins coming by double digits vs Iowa, Memphis, and Xavier. Tech has played the 3rd EASIEST schedule in the nation thus far (356th ranked SOS). The Red Raiders have played 3 top 50 teams and they are 1-2 in those games. It’s been almost 3 weeks since they played a team with a pulse which is not ideal. On top of that, they’ve played only one true road game this year – loss at Providence – and that was back on December 1st. If you subtract those 3 top 50 opponents Tech’s average opponent rank is 292nd. Iowa State is a great defensive team ranking 7th in efficiency, 11th in eFG% allowed, 5th in 3 point % allowed, 10th in PPG allowed (57), and 6th in defensive turnover rate. We love good defensive teams at home as a dog or low favorite, especially off a home loss. ISU was terrible last year but their new head coach Otzelberger has total revamped this team with big time transfers from Kansas, Penn State, Minnesota, Washington State and UNLV. The remain undervalued in our opinion and we like them to win this one. |
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01-05-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -10 | Top | 111-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -10 over Detroit Pistons, 7:10PM ET - This line looks “fishy” in our opinion as if the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet the Pistons. We won’t bite and will side with the Hornets. Detroit is coming off their biggest win of the season, a road victory at Milwaukee. The young Pistons let down here against a Hornets team off two straight losses. Prior to their most recent losses the Hornets had won three straight including a 24-point home win over the Rockets as an 8-point chalk. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -11.4PPG. Charlotte is a respectable 9-5 SU at home with a +1.9PPG +/-. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home off a loss this year, Detroit is 1-6 ATS off a win. |
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01-04-22 | Flyers +125 v. Ducks | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers +120 over Anaheim Ducks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - The Flyers are off a 6-3 loss but this was their first loss in regulation time since a shutout loss at New Jersey 4 weeks ago! Not only had Philadelphia been hot, they also are expected to get Scott Laughton and Carter Hart back from covid protocols for this one. The Ducks are trending the other direction of late. Anaheim has lost 4 straight games and have scored an average of only 1.3 goals in the last 3 defeats. Going further back, the Ducks have lost 11 of 18 games. They are favored here in this one because they are on home ice but they have actually lost 5 of last 8 games played in Anaheim. The Ducks have been held to just 1 goal in 3 of those 5 home losses. The Flyers will be rejuvenated by reinforcements tonight and Anaheim still has some key health question marks entering this match-up. This is a case of two teams trending opposite directions right now and the Flyers get it done here! Take the plus money with the road dog here |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
#285/286 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Kansas State vs LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this game. KSU’s defense ranks 64 spots higher than their offense (37th to 101st) and LSU’s defense ranks 34 spots higher than their offense (63rd to 87th). Both defenses were playing very well down the stretch with KSU holding each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less and LSU held their last 4 opponents to an average of 17 PPG – which included Bama, Arkansas, and A&M. The Tigers have had a number of opt outs and transfers on both sides of the ball. They are still very talented and fast on defense but the biggest impact will be at QB. They are left with 2 walk on QB’s who’ve never played in a game so their offense can be expected to struggle big time vs a solid KSU defense. They are also a poor running team ranking 117th nationally and lost their top RB after the season so these QB’s will have to play way above their head for LSU to put significant points on the board. While the Cats do have their full complement of offensive players for this one, they were far from explosive ranking outside the top 100 in total offense. They are also the 3rd slowest paced team in all of the bowl games so that should eat clock as well. We think the LSU defense will be fine here and will keep the Wildcat offense in check. The LSU offense with no scholarship QB will have problems. Under is the play. |
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01-04-22 | Spurs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team. |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Wake will be desperate for a home win after losing 2 straight down to the wire road games. At Louisville last Wednesday, Wake led by 1 with just over a minute remaining and lost by 4 despite shooting just 38% overall, 25% from deep, and making 11 fewer FT’s. At Miami on Saturday the Deacs shot much better but were only awarded 8 FT attempts the entire game while the Canes shot 27 from the line. Despite that WF was down 3 with under 3:00 minutes remaining and lost by 8. Now back at home where they are 7-0 this year and average 84 PPG, we expect them to play very well. They catch FSU off a huge road win @ NC State on Saturday and now playing again on the road just a few days later. They shot lights out (51%) in that 2 point win over NC State which is well above their season average. Even after that effort FSU is still shooting just 43% on the road so expect a big regression here vs a solid Wake defense which has allowed opponents to shoot just 38% here at home. Prior to Saturday’s win, the Noles were 0-3 SU on road games with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. They are now 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games. These 2 met last year @ FSU and a Wake team that was ranked 115th at the time nearly pulled off the upset vs an FSU team that was ranked 15th at the time. The Deacs lost that game in OT. Wake is MUCH better this season and FSU has regressed. We expect the Demon Deacons to pick up a home win on Tuesday. |
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01-03-22 | Browns +3 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +3 over Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Line value here on the Browns. They were favored by 3 in this game before officially getting eliminated from the playoffs and the line has moved to the Steelers now favored. This move is assuming the Browns will lay down here with no post-season ahead for them. We disagree. Cleveland would like nothing better than to knock of their AFC North rivals as Pittsburgh battles for a potential playoff berth. To add to their potential motivation this is also a revenger with Pittsburgh winning 15-10 on Oct 31st. The Browns are fairly healthy and the better team in this match up. Cleveland ranks 15th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 8th in defensive YPP. The Steelers rank 27th and 25th in those categories. Despite Pitt still being alive for the playoffs they have a -0.7 YPP differential while the Browns are +0.4 in that category. This is a bad match up for Pittsburgh’s defense as they rank 31st at stopping the run and they are facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 3rd and put up 219 yards on the ground vs Green Bay last week. They actually outplayed the Packers in Lambeau (6.2 YPP to 5.4 YPP for Packers) but had 4 turnovers. The Steelers have been a terrible favorite this year (1-5 ATS) while the Browns have been a money maker as an underdog (4-2 ATS). With the cold weather in the Steel City tonight, we like the underdog that can run the ball vs the favorite who can’t (Pitt 29th in rushing). Take the points. |
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01-03-22 | Jazz -9 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation as an elite team like the Jazz are off a loss against one of the leagues weaker teams. Utah has nearly everyone back at full strength but the Pels do not as Ingram and Valanciunas are both doubtful tonight. New Orleans was just a -12.5-point underdog at home to the Bucks and lost by 23 points. Utah is 12-3 SU on the road this season with the best average differential of +11.8PPG. The Jazz have the best offensive efficiency numbers away from home and the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers. The Pelicans have the 24th worst average +/- at home and 24th in DEFF on their home court. A motivated Jazz team get a 16-point win here. |
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01-02-22 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 214.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Both teams are dealing with covid issues or injuries so we don't see either of these teams wanting to get into a track meet here. On the season both have favored lower paced games with the Pacer being the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Cavs are 19th. The Cavaliers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league, holding opponents to 1.051-points per possession. The Pacers have been known for their defense but have slipped this year ranking 19th in DEFF but they do hold opponents to 107.6PPG. Indiana is an average shooting team overall but one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. Cleveland is better offensively but they're also missing several key players from their rotation. The Pacers are now 11-2 their last 13 road games, while the Cavs are on a 7-2 Under streak as a home favorite. |
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01-02-22 | Illinois State v. Valparaiso OVER 138.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Illinois State vs Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET - The Illinois State offense has been impressive this season. They rank 26th nationally averaging 81 PPG and they just put up 85 points on Wednesday vs a Wisconsin defense that was allowing just 61 PPG prior to that game. The Redbirds are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 40% of their triples (10th nationally). They are facing a Valpo defense that ranks 266th at defending the arc. Valpo also shoots the 3 very well (almost 36%) and ISU ranks 296th at defending the triple. Both teams should light it up from deep. Valpo’s overall offensive stats are misleading because they played their first 9 games (minus non division 1 games) without arguably their best scorer Kobe King (Wisconsin transfer). They averaged 66 PPG without King and 74 PPG with him in the line up. Both teams rank inside the top 85 in eFG% offense and outside the top 150 in eFG% defense. ISU has scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games and they’ve gotten to at least 80 points in 9 of those games. Their games have averaged 157 total points. Valpo games this year have averaged 141 total PPG with King sitting on the bench for most of the season. This one is set too low and we grab the OVER. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans -3 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
#120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Miami has won 7 in a row to get back into the playoff discussion but they’ve played a brutally easy for the season (29th SOS) and especially as of late. Those wins came vs Jets twice, Houston, NY Giants, Carolina, New Orleans and Baltimore. Minus the Ravens, the QB’s they’ve faced during this run were Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor. They’ve played 15 games this yar and only 6 of those opponents are in playoff contention. The Fins are 2-4 SU in those games with one of those wins coming by 1 points vs New England in the season opener and all 4 losses coming by double digits. Average margin in those 6 games is -12.5 PPG for Miami. The Titans have the better record (10-5 – Miami 8-7) despite playing the much tougher schedule (2nd SOS). While Miami has struggled vs good competition, Tennessee has wins over Buffalo, KC, Indy (twice), LA Rams, and San Francisco. This situation sets up very nicely as well with Tennessee having extra time after beating SF on a Thursday while the Fins have a short week off a win @ New Orleans on Monday night. Tennessee’s defense should be able to make Miami one-dimensional in this game as the Fins can run (30th in the NFL) and Tennessee is very good at stopping the run (2nd in the NFL). Thus, this game could fall on the shoulders for Miami QB Tagovailoa and we don’t trust him on the road vs a defense that is playing well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to 22 points or less. Lay it with Tennessee. |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 218.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the league average of 216PPG but we expect it to be much higher scoring than that. The Bulls were scoring at will going into their game last night versus Indiana. Chicago had scored 130+ points in 3 of their prior four games and 113 or more in 5 straight before running into the Pacers. Last night the Bulls shot poorly at 41% which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. The Bulls will make more shots tonight against a Wizards team that is 16th in opponents FG% defense and 19th in points allowed per game at 108.5. Washington will get their points too with the 7th best shooting offense in the NBA and they have All-Star Bradley Beal back in the lineup after missing a few games with Covid. Don’t be misled by the Wizards defense in their last game against the Cavaliers where they gave up 93-points because the Cavs were short handed. Prior to that game the Wiz had allowed 116 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. The Bulls are 4-1 Over their last five games playing without rest, while Washington Over 5 of six when coming off a win. BET OVER! |
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01-01-22 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#620 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Hall is coming off a loss on Wednesday losing by 5 points @ #21 Providence. The Pirates shot just 39% overall and only 21% from beyond the arc but still had a shot down 3 with less than 30 seconds remaining. They were a bit rusty having not played a game since December 12th so that game should help them here. Nova, on the other hand, has now been off since December 21st and are in a similar situation going on the road for this one. The Cats have not been great on the road this year with a 2-3 SU record. Their road wins have come against teams ranked 250 or lower and their 3 losses have come vs solid competition all in the top 100. Seton Hall absolutely falls into that category ranking 28th in our power ratings. Villanova relies on the 3-point shot almost more than any team in college basketball with over 42% of their points coming from deep (13th most nationally). The problem here is the Cats have been a really poor shooting team on the road hitting only 29% of their 3-point shots and they are facing a SH defense that ranks 7th nationally defending the arc allowing 25%. This is a good match up for the undervalued Pirates playing at home. The dog has covered 5 of 6 in this series and we like Seton Hall to win this one. |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State +100 v. Notre Dame | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
#277 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State Money Line +100 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have OSU as the favorite here so we feel the value is on the Cowboys. The Okie State defense ranks 3rd nationally behind only Georgia and Wisconsin. They are equally proficient at stopping the run (5th nationally) and the pass (10th). Facing a fairly pedestrian Notre Dame offense ranked 43rd in YPP and 56th in total offense. The Irish closed out the regular season facing 3 defenses ranked 114th or lower and faced just 2 top 25 defenses this season. In those games they averaged just 3.5 YPP (vs Wisconsin) and 4.6 YPP (vs Cincinnati). The ND QB Coan is not a someone that can carry a team on his shoulders without a decent running game. They averaged 151 YPG rushing this year but that won’t happen in this game facing an OSU defense that allows 2.7 YPC. On top of that the Irish are without their top RB Williams who has over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 400 yards receiving. They will struggle offensively in this game. The Cowboy offense, on the other hand, gets a key component back on their offense with RB Warren returning (1,200 yards rushing and 11 TD’s). He missed the Big 12 Championship game which was a 21-16 loss vs Baylor. The Cowboys outplayed the Bears in that game outgaining them by almost 100 yards, but 4 turnovers killed. That included 2 interceptions that led to quick TD drives of 11 yards and 37 yards by the Bears. OSU has played the tougher schedule (9th SOS to 47th for ND) and they still have the better numbers (+130 YPG and +1.1 YPP differential compared to Notre Dame +77 YPG and +0.9 YPP). OSU coach Gundy is experienced in coach bowl games and has done well with a 10-5 ATS record while new ND HC Freeman has never led his team in a bowl game. OSU is the better team with the better defense and getting points. We’ll take that. |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas v. Penn State OVER 48 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
#275/276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points - Penn State vs Arkansas, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Penn State had a solid defense this year (34th in total defense) but they won’t be even close to full strength here. That’s because they had 5 starters opt out on that side of the ball. Some of their top defensive players that combined to account for over 300 total tackles, 36.5 for loss and 12.5 sacks defensively. On top of that PSU lost their defensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Virginia Tech. We expect Arkansas to have very good success offensively here. The Razors averaged 31 PPG on the season and scored at least 30 in 4 of their last 5 including putting up 35 points on Alabama. Their PPG season number was skewed as well after putting up 0 points vs Georgia, the best defense in the country, take that game out and they averaged 35 PPG. Defensively the Razorbacks were shaky this year. They finished 69th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed and PSU finished 22nd in passing offense. Arkansas had some solid defensive performances in the non-conference slate but once they hit SEC play they allowed 30 PPG. Both teams like to play fairly fast with PSU 12th in pace of play for bowl teams and Arkansas is 25th. With Razors favored by 2 the projected score here is 25-23. Our projections have both teams topping those numbers. Take the OVER here. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#269 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -7.5 over Michigan, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This line is off. We have UGA as a 10 point favorite here. Way too much overreaction to the last few games of the season has pushed this number too low. For comparison’s sake, OSU was favored by 6.5 or 7 AT Michigan to close out the regular season. Now basically the same number vs UGA, who was the best team in the country for the entire season, on a neutral site? Georgia was favored by 6 vs Alabama in the SEC Championship and now just 1.5 points more vs Michigan? The Wolverines beat OSU at home to close out the season and then crushed a not so good Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. You then had UGA get steamrolled by Bama in the SEC Championship to set up this lower number. We’ll take advantage of it. The Bulldogs defense has been lights and the best in the nation all season long. After giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide to close out the season (although one TD was a Bama pick 6), you can bet this defense is completely jacked to make amends here. Michigan doesn’t have the offense to exploit this defense as Bama did. The Tide of the best QB in college football and a number of NFL ready WR’s. They threw the ball 44 times in that game. Michigan can’t do that. They are built on the running game and their QB McNamara is solid but nowhere near the same caliber as Bama’s Young. Problem is the Bulldogs allow just 83 YPG rushing on 2.7 YPC. On offense we expect UGA QB Bennett to bounce back with a solid effort here. He threw for 340 yards vs Alabama but threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6. Prior to that Bennett had thrown 5 interceptions all season (11 games). These 2 played almost identical SOS’s and Georgia had the far superior stats. The Dawgs were +188 YPG, +3.0 YPP and +30 PPG while Michigan was +135 YPG, +1.8 YPP, and +21 PPG. After their season opener vs Clemson, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 14 points in every game until they met Bama in the SEC Championship. Michigan was an underdog twice this year and favored by less than 10 four other times. Believe it or not, 11 of the 14 College FB Final 4 games have been decided by 10 or more points. Another one here as Georgia gets the cover. |
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12-31-21 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:40PM ET - Both teams are dealing with the “omnicold” protocols with players out which has left each team with shortened rotations. These two teams prefer to play slower to begin with as they rank 19th and 20th in pace of play. Now with limited regular players you can bet neither team will be anxious to get into a run and shoot game here. The Hawks just played two higher scoring games against the Bulls who are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 110PPG. Prior to those two games the Hawks had stayed Under in 3 straight games with less than 202 total points scored in each. Cleveland is really hurting at the point guard position, and it has led to some lower scoring games. The Cavs have totaled less than 215 points in 6 of their last seven games. When these two teams met in October at full strength, they combined for 196 total points which was the 5th straight Under in this series. We are betting that trend continues here. |
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12-30-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards -3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - This is a wager on the team with “less attrition” as the Cavaliers are decimated at the point guard position right now. The Cavs lost Sexton early on but didn’t miss a beat with Garland and Rubio filling in, but now both of those players are out now too. Cleveland is also missing Osman and Allen, both key rotation players. The Wizard are also shorthanded, but they may be getting Bradley Beal back tonight if he clears protocols. Without Beal the Wizard battled in Miami the other night getting key contributions from Gafford, Kuzma, Dinwiddie and Bertans who all scored 16+ points. Washington has been a solid bet on team at home off a loss this season with a 3-1 ATS record. Cleveland on the road off a loss is 1-3 ATS. The bet here is Washington. |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6 over Purdue, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET - Purdue has had some really important players opt out for this game. Their top offensive player and top defensive player will not be playing on Thursday. WR Bell (Big 10 receiver of the year), who had over 1,200 yards receiving, is getting ready for the NFL. The Boilers just announced on Monday that WR Milton will also not be playing in the game and he is 2nd on the team in both receptions and yards. That’s over 2,000 receiving yards and 13 TD’s out of the line up for Purdue. Starting OT Long will also be out due to injury. Defensively this team will be missing DE Karlaftis (one of the top pass rushers in the Big 10 – All Big 10) and top CB Mackey. Offensively losing key weapons at wideout will really put this offense in a bind more so than many teams because they cannot run the bal. Purdue averages just 84 YPG rushing and 2.9 YPC which ranks them below 124th in both (out of 130 teams). They need their passing attack to be humming to be effective. While Purdue had their very best players opting out, Tennessee has had many of their top players commit to coming back next year. That gives this bowl a whole different vibe for the Vols heading into next year. Starting QB Hooker is coming back (2,600 yards passing, 560 yards rushing, 26-3 TD to int ration), top WR Tillman, who would have been drafted, is coming back, along with a few starting offensive lineman who had other options. Those team leaders have stated they wanted to come back to try and win an SEC championship next year but it starts with this bowl game. The Vols are treating this game seriously and will have plenty of crowd support with the game in Nashville. Tennessee’s losses this year came at the hands of Pitt (ACC Champ – UT outgained them in the game), Alabama (SEC Champ), Georgia (#1 team for most of the season), Ole Miss, and Florida (early in the season when the Gators were playing very well). They are MUCH more balanced on offense rushing for 212 YPG and passing for 248 YPG. The Vols scored at least 34 points in 8 of their 12 games including topping 40 points 6 times. These 2 played similar SOS’s but Tennessee has the much better numbers with a +1.2 YPP differential (Purdue +0.3) and +11 PPG differential (Purdue +7). We’re getting what we think is the better team, in a semi-home game, in the much better personnel situation. Tennessee wins this one by at least a TD. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma OVER 60 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#253/254 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Oregon vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9:15 PM ET - Both defenses are playing this game missing a number of key players. Oregon has over 30 guys out due to injuries, opt outs, etc… including 14 in the defensive 2 deep. That includes DE Thibodeaux who is one of the top pass rushers in the nation. The Ducks are actually moving OL to the DL so they have some depth for this game. Oklahoma will be without 3 starting defensive lineman and 4 of their front 7 are not playing in this game. Both offenses have a few guys out but nothing compared to the defenses. Both offense are capable of putting up big numbers as Oklahoma averaged 38 PPG and Oregon averaged 31 PPG this season. Since Williams took over at QB for the Sooners (final 7 games of the season), they have topped 50 points 3 times and been held below 28 just once. They closed out the season scoring 28 vs ISU and 33 vs Oklahoma State, two of the top 8 defenses in the nation. The only Pac 12 team that really slowed down the Ducks offense was Utah. Throw out those 2 games vs the Utes and Oregon put up at least 30 points in 8 of their other 11 games. Now with each offense close to full strength and facing depleted defenses, we anticipate both teams getting into the 30’s in this one. |
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12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
#698 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -2 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot at home for the talented Crimson Tide. They are coming off an upset loss at the hands of Davidson. They were 9 point favorites in that game and lost by 1 point. Meanwhile UT is off a huge upset win over Arizona who came into the game 11-0 on the season. That game was at home for the Vols and now they play just their 2nd true road game of the season. Alabama’s schedule has prepared them for these type of games as they’ve already faced 8 top 100 teams this season. They have wins over both Gonzaga and Houston who both rank higher than this Tennessee team. The Vols have played 5 top 100 teams this year and they are 3-2 SU in those games. The remainder of their wins come vs teams that rank 150 or lower. Tennessee’s defense has been very good this year but this will be the best offense they’ve faced so far (Bama 9th in offensive efficiency) and again the game is on the road. Bama shoots a lot of 3’s and if there is a weakness for UT’s defense it’s defending the arc (91st nationally). The Vols also get to the line very rarely generating just 11% of their points from the stripe which is 352nd in the nation. Tough to win on the road in a game like this if they don’t get some significant points from the stripe. Bama has Won 22 of their last 25 home games and they get another here. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
#246 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -4.5 over West Virginia, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - The Gophers defense doesn’t get talked about much but they are absolutely one of the best in the nation. They rank 4th nationally in total defense and they only 2 Big 10 games in which they allowed more than 300 yards was vs OSU & Nebraska. In their other 7 conference games the Minnesota defense allowed an average of just 236 YPG. They outgained 7 straight opponents to end the season and in their 4 losses on the season they outgained their opponent in 3 of those games. We like the Gophers to control the trenches here with one of the most experienced offensive lines and a team that averaged 195 YPG on the ground. WVU played well early in the season but finished just 4-5 in the Big 12 and struggled to beat a bad Kansas team by 6 to close out the season. These teams played similar SOS’s and Minnesota had the better overall numbers including +0.5 YPP differential and a +8 PPG point differential (WVU was +0.0 YPP differential and +2 PPG differential). Minnesota also has a HUGE hidden advantage in this game. HC PJ Fleck hired Ciarrocca as his new offensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. He was the Minnesota OC a few years ago and was quite successful before taking the OC job at Penn State. After 1 year at PSU (last year – Covid year) Ciarrocca was fired by PSU head coach Franklin which was absolutely crazy considering the circumstances. He then joined the West Virginia staff as a special offensive assistant THIS SEASON and was with the Mountaineers throughout the regular season. He should have a pretty good idea of how to defend this WVU offense which gives an already very good Gopher defense an edge. We like Minnesota to win this game by at least a TD. |
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12-28-21 | Cavs -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are missing a few key players with either injuries or Covid protocols, but the Pelicans losses are more significant at the moment. The Cavs have had a few games to adjust to without key personnel and the Pels have not. The line on this game is telling us as much and you shouldn’t be scared off by this number considering the Cavs recent success. Cleveland's past 11 wins have come by at least 10 points, and the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference with 15 double-digit victories. Cleveland has the 3rd best average point differential on the road this season at +5.7PPG. The Cavaliers are one of very few teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this season. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans don’t play any. New Orleans is 24th in DEFF ratings allowing 1.123-points per possession. They are 23rd or worse in 3-point field goal percentage defense, 26th in FG% D and 27th in points allowed per game. Cleveland can pull another double digit road win here. |
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12-28-21 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh +4 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Pitt struggled early in the season losing 6 of their first 8 games but they’ve righted the ship. It also wasn’t as bad early on as it may have seemed with 4 of those losses coming vs top 100 teams including two 1-point losses vs Minnesota & Virginia. The Panthers have now won 3 of their last 4 including an impressive road win @ St Johns. Their defense has picked up holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 0.90 PPP or less and 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. Notre Dame has underperformed all season with just a 2-8 ATS record. They are just 1-5 SU away from home (road or neutral) and their only win was vs Chaminade. In games away from home the Irish are hitting just 42% of their shots while allowing 50%. Last year Pitt was favored at home in this match up 3.5 points and now they are getting 4 points. Too big of a swing in the spread and we really like the way Pitt is playing right now. The dog is 10-3-1 ATS in this series and we like the home puppy getting points here. |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - This is a big number, but our model suggests it’s not high enough. Scoring is trending up in the NBA right now and we see this game finishing with more than 232 total points. These two teams recently met and combined for 254 points. There were 193 field goal attempts in the game which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. The Spurs are 6th in pace of play while the Jazz are 11th so we know we will get an up-and-down type of game. The Jazz hold the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA while the Spurs rank 11th. San Antonio has scored 112 or more points in 9 straight games and are coming off a 138-point outing against the Lakers and 144 versus the Pistons. Utah has scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last nine games and 123+ points in 5 of nine. The Jazz are on a 13-4-1 Over run, Spurs Over in 21 of their last 28 at home. The Jazz are without Donovan here and the Spurs are minus Murray but we still like these two teams to score a ton of points here. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Michigan -7 over Nevada, Monday at 11 AM ET - Nevada has lost almost 20 players to opt out and transfer. Their offense will be without starting QB Strong who is one of the top signal callers in the country. That means the Wolfpack will be starting a freshman who attempted 20 passes this season. That’s not the only missing player as the offense is completely decimated, playing without all 3 starting WR’s, starting TE, and 2 starting OL. So with an inexperienced QB and a number of skill players out, Nevada would probably like to run the ball. The problem is they only averaged 73 YPG rushing this season. So it’s not something they do well. Not only are they missing players, head coach Jay Norvell moved on to Colorado State after the regular season. 6 of 10 assistants are gone as well including OC, DC and special teams coordinator. The MAC has struggled this bowl season but this seems like to spot to jump on Western Michigan. We had them rated as the top team in the league this season even though they didn’t win the conference title. They and the #1 YPG differential in MAC play at +140 (conference games only). The Broncos beat the 2 teams that met in the MAC championship and did so handily beating NIU by 21 and Kent by 33. They had a few slips ups on the way mainly because of turnovers as they actually outgained their opponent in every MAC game they played. This game is in Detroit so nearly a home game for the Broncos. Too many distractions and key personnel losses for Nevada and WMU seems motivated for this one. Lay it. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47 Points – Washington vs Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was a misleading 27-20 in favor of the Cowboys. The 2 had combined for just 35 points with under 6 minutes remaining in the game when Washington scored 2 TD’s in the last 5:09 including a pick 6. Dallas also scored a TD on a fumble return earlier in the game. The fact is the defenses dominated in this game. Dallas averaged just 4.1 YPP while Washington put up only 3.6 YPP. Neither passing game was effective with Dallas barely throwing for 200 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt and Washington throwing for only 124 yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. Washington has gone under the total in 80% of their games with the total set at 45 or higher (8-2 to the Under). Dallas is viewed by many as a team that is involved in high scoring games more often than not but the fact is they have topped this total (47) only once in their last 8 games. A big NFC East game with playoff implications (Dallas trying to win the division & Washington trying to stay alive in the playoff race) equates to a low scoring defensive game. Take the UNDER on Sunday night. |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 42 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 42 Points – Chicago vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been brutal all season long ranking 29th in scoring, YPG, and YPP. They have topped 24 points only twice this season and are facing a surging Seattle defense that has given up 23 points or less in 8 straight including 20 last week vs a very good LA Rams offense. They rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 20 PPG on the season so we expect them to shut down Chicago’s offense. On the other side Seattle has really struggled offensively. They have scored an average of just 15 PPG (offensive points) since Russell Wilson returned from injury. As we mentioned above, Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in YPG well Seattle sits one spot lower at 30th in that category. Neither offense is good at extending drives ranking 30th and 31st in 3rd down conversion rate. These 2 have combined to play 28 games this season with only 8 going Over the total. We’re looking at possible snow and wind in Seattle on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring grinder. Under is the play. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
#456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona "pick-em" over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great line value with the Cardinals here. We’re laying only 1 point (some spot are at pick-em) with Arizona at home. The line is short because Arizona is coming off 2 straight losses including one vs a bad Detroit team last Sunday. They outgained both LA (by 91 yards) and Detroit (by 61 yards). Last week they were shut out on downs at the Detroit 3, 9, and 30 yard lines. A week earlier vs Rams they were shut out on downs at the LA 14 & 37 and threw a pick at the LA 4 yard line. As you can see they’ve had their chances. On the other end, Indy beat a red hot New England team at home last week. Buy low (Arizona), sell high (Indy) here. To put this number is perspective, let’s look at some of Arizona’s home game spreads and some of Indy’s road game spreads. The Cards were favored by 3 points vs the Rams just a few weeks ago. They were also favored by -6 vs SF and -6.5 vs Green Bay. Indy was +7 @ Buffalo a few weeks ago, +3.5 @ SF, and +7.5 @ Baltimore. You get the point. Football Outsiders DVOA has these teams ranked dead even (8th and 9th) so no home field advantage is factored into this line. These 2 have played nearly identical SOS’s and Zona is +54 YPG and +0.4 YPP while Indy is +18 YPG and +0.1 YPP. Arizona has been the better team for most of the season and now because they’ve had back to back down games, we’re getting them basically as a pick-em at home. Cards win this one. |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* PHOENIX SUNS -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 5:10 PM ET - This is certainly a contrarian play as this number doesn’t look right at all. Consider this, the Warriors have been an underdog twice this season. Once recently in Toronto when they sat their starting lineup and again the first game of the season versus the Lakers. The Warriors were recently a 7-point favorite at home against the Suns and won by 22. Phoenix didn’t have Devin Booker in that game and they shot well below their season average by hitting just 38% from the field. The two teams had met in Phoenix prior to that game with the Suns winning by 8-points as a -3.5-point chalk. Phoenix has the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +10.8PPG while the Warriors have a +3.7-point differential on the road. The home team has won 5 straight in this rivalry and all five of those wins came by 6 or more points. Merry Christmas from ASA. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
#232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia St -5.5 over Ball St, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The MAC continues their terrible bowl run with an 0-4 SU record this year as of this writing (prior to Miami Oh vs North Texas on Thursday) which means this conference is now 7-20 SU their last 27 bowl games. MAC underdogs have been brutal as well with a 20-38-2 ATS record over their last 60. This is a bad match up for Ball State as they struggle to stop the run (93rd nationally) and they are facing a GSU team that ranks 8th nationally averaging 225 YPG rushing. Ball State’s offense has struggled all season as well ranking 109th in total offense so while we don’t see them slowing down Georgia State’s running game, the Cards don’t have the offense to keep up. BSU finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games with their only wins during that stretch coming vs Buffalo (4-8 record) and Akron (2-10 record) and the Cardinals were outgained in each of those wins. Georgia State closed out the season winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UL Lafayette by 4 points. Not a bad loss at all as ULL won the Sun Belt title and beat a solid Marshall team in their bowl by 15 points. This team also nearly beat Auburn on the road in a game they led by 5 with under 1:00 minute remaining. We expect Ga State to run all over Ball State and get the cover. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – San Francisco vs Tennessee, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Titans offense has been flat out bad since they lost Derrick Henry. Over their last 5 games they’ve averaged just 16 PPG and 3 of those games were vs opponents who ranked 22nd or lower in scoring defense (Pitt, Houston, and Jacksonville). They are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL averaging just 2.6 plays per game that average 20+ yards (fewest in NFL). On top of that Tennessee will be without 2 starting offensive linemen for this game. At the same time their offense went south, the Titans defense started to play very well. They have allowed an average of just 19 PPG over their last 6 games holding 5 of those opponents to 22 point or less. SF has been one of the top defenses in the NFL all season long ranking 7th in total defense and 9th in DVOA defense per Football Outsiders. Both are rush heavy teams which eats clock. Tennessee ranks 3rd in the NFL running the ball on 47.6% of their offensive snaps while San Fran ranks 4th in that category at 47.8%. Both teams are also slow paced ranking 25th and 27th in seconds per play. We expect this to be a defensive battle and UNDER is the play. |
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12-23-21 | Rockets v. Pacers -8.5 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* INDIANA PACERS -8.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a big road game in Milwaukee last night and they’ve really struggled when playing without rest. Houston is 0-4 SU on the year when playing the 2nd night of a B2B with a negative differential of minus -17PPG. The Rockets are playing their 6th game in 10 days and 3rd in four nights. Fatigue is going to be a major issue. Indiana is coming off an embarrassing 96-125 loss in Miami on Tuesday night and will be primed for a good effort here. The Pacers are much better than their 13-19 SU record as they rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 16th in DEFF. Houston is 27th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +2.5 over Miami Oh, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - The MAC conference continues it’s terrible showing in bowl games. They are now 0-4 SU this season and 7-20 SU since 2016. The 2 teams in the MAC that won their respective divisions have already lost this bowl season (NIU & Kent). Miami Oh finished with a 6-6 overall record and beat only 1 team that ended the regular season with a winning record. 3 of their final 4 wins came vs the worst teams in the MAC (Akron, BG, and Buffalo) who had a combined 10-26 record this season. We love the way UNT was playing at the end of the season winning and covering 6 straight. That included a 22 point win over CUSA champs UTSA and a win over UTEP who nearly upset Fresno State in their bowl game. The Mean Green also had a few “impressive” losses @ Liberty, outgaining the Flames by over 100 yards in the loss, and @ Missouri, outgaining the Tigers on their home field. UNT is a great running team ranking 4th nationally averaging 237 YPG on the ground. We love siding with top 10 running teams that can control the line of scrimmage and their bowl history has been great with a 50-28 ATS record the last decade. Miami allowed 151 YPG rushing which ranks them 64th nationally, however they faced 2 top 10 rushing attacks this year (Kent & Army) lost both games and gave up almost 700 combined yards rushing in the process. This will be somewhat of a homefield for North Texas as they are playing just 20 miles from their campus. We think the wrong team is favored here and we like UNT to win this game outright. |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets -6 v. Thunder | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -6 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Thunder off a satisfying win over the Grizzlies who had beaten them earlier this season 152-79 and now let down against the rested Nuggets. Denver has been off since the 17th after their game against the Nets was canceled due to covid. It’s not like OKC has a great home court as they are just 5-10 SU at home this year. The Thunder have the 3rd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Nuggets have the 8th best OEFF on the road and should outscore a Thunder offense at home that is 3rd worst in the league at 1.040PPP. Lay it. |