Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-22 | Brewers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Two very fine starters face off in Miami on Friday evening. Lopez and Burns have done it all this season, with 6 starts each, low ERAs, and good length. Burns is a strikeout machine, while Lopez has given up just 4 runs. Three of them were in one slightly off-color start, but in his last outing, he threw 8 innings of shut-out ball. Miami’s bullpen has been better than average, but the Brewers’ pen has given up some big numbers lately. The Brewers, with a good start this year, have now lost 4 of 5, and 2 of 3 of those losses were against the lowly Reds. They have had no success in previous meetings vs Lopez. Miami has won just 2 of 10 games, but 7 of those 8 losses were by just 1 run. I like Lopez’s and Miami’s chances today, but considering their lack of success in past meetings (1-6) vs the Brewers, will hedge my bet. Take Miami + 1 ½. |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Philadelphia must win here to stay alive. The good thing is they are at home where they’ve already beaten the Heat twice, by 20 and 8 points. It’s difficult to imagine the 76ers’ shooting not improving from the last time out. Game 5 marked the fourth time in these playoffs that the 76ers were held below 100. They averaged 117 points the next time out, the previous three instances. Similarly, look for Miami’s shooting to decline in Game 5. They were 7 of 30, then 7 of 35 from three-point land in the previous two games here in Philly. No one on the Sixers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Think that might change here? With Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, I’m expecting at least two Sixers players to top 20 tonight. Other than Jimmy Butler, only Bam Adebayo in Game 4 has turned in a 20+ point effort for the Heat over the last three games. Philadelphia is 17-5 straight up, 14-8 against the spread this season following a sub-100 point game. The previous time they got held below 90 (Game 5 vs Toronto), they responded by scoring 132 in the next game. Lay the points here. |
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05-11-22 | Warriors -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I like the Warriors to close out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and also to cover the spread. Memphis won’t have Ja Morant, which is a big loss even if the team is 20-6 (straight up) this season without its star point guard and also turned in an admirable effort in Game 4 Monday night. But you can’t expect Golden State to go 9 of 35 on three-point tries again like they did in the last game. The Warriors also had a bad night from three in Game 2 (7 of 38). The next game they bounced back to make 17 of 32 from beyond the arc and shot 63.1% overall. Memphis shot a similar three-point percentage in Game 4 (25.7%). The difference is that without Morant, their chances of improving aren’t as great. Let us not forget that even when Morant was healthy, the Grizzlies needed three huge comebacks in the first round to eliminate Minnesota. The expectation is that Steve Kerr will again not coach for the Warriors as he remains in health and safety protocol. But that doesn’t really concern me. Golden State is 12-0 SU all-time in the playoffs when associate Mike Brown fills in as the head coach. Golden State should smell “blood in the water” here and be looking for the kill. It is in their best interest to end this series tonight with the chance Phoenix could move to the Western Conference Finals with a win tomorrow. The Warriors winning here and that Phoenix-Dallas series going seven games would be the dream scenario. Lay the points tonight. |
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05-11-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Mets meet the home underdog Nationals in the 2nd game of the series. Mets won the first game, and have played well this season. They are top 5 in League batting and pitching, and are a very good road team. Megill starts for NY. At 4-1, with an ERA of 2.43, he has 3 shutout starts, including one against the Nationals. The verdict on the supporting act, the bullpen, is “pretty good”. They have a 3.60 ERA in their last five games. Th Nationals can hit, but it is their pitching, both starting and relief, that lets them down. Aaron Sanchez (ERA 8.56) will start on Wednesday. It has been a poor season for Sanchez, and he has passed that statistic of ineffectiveness of a run per inning. I don’t expect sudden success from Sanchez or the Phillies bullpen for that matter. The Nationals have been poor at home, and especially as a home underdog (1-6!). They are just 6-13 vs right handed starters. Look for the offensively effective Mets to run up the score on Sanchez and Washington’s pen. Take the Mets – 1 ½. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
When Dallas headed home to face Phoenix for Game 3, they had lost to the Suns 11 straight times and were facing an 0-2 series deficit. Now the series is all tied up after a couple of impressive wins at home. The Suns are the team that is reeling entering Game 5 tonight. We’re back in Phoenix, but I see the Mavericks playing a lot better Tuesday night than they did in either Games 1 or 2. Though they did end up losing by 20, the Mavs were ahead at halftime in Game 2. And though they were down the whole way in Game 1, they only ended up losing by seven with a chance to “steal the cover” late (they did not). Remember something I’ve previously written. The Suns posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced out of the first round. That was against the 8th seeded Pelicans. Dallas was +33 from behind the three-point line in Game 4. We probably shouldn’t count on that transpiring again. But they’ve made more threes than Phoenix in the series and in every game but one (both teams made 13 in Game 3). I happen to think the teams are a lot closer than these odds would seem to suggest. Dallas is definitely the better defensive team in this Western Conference semifinal. Grab those points. |
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05-09-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Predators | Top | 5-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The Av’s have been a force to be reckoned with in round one, and can close it out tonight. The Predators, still without Saros, got one good game out of Ingram, but it was back to status quo in Game three. The Avalanche are just too much to for Nashville to handle at the moment. Kuemper could be back in net but Francouz closed out Game 3 well, and is available if needed. The Avs are destined for greater things this season, and with their very fine offense rolling as it is, should win easily. Take Colorado to win - 1 1/2.. |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This series feels a lot different now that Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. The 76ers rolled to a 99-79 win in Game 3 as the home team has yet to lose in this best of seven affair. While we can’t count on Miami shooting as poorly here as they did in Game 3, I still like the Sixers to win and cover Game 4. Still at +285 to win the series, the Sixers seem a bit undervalued to me. Embiid had only 18 points in Game 3, well under his season average, and eight of those came from the FT line. It was a bit of a surprise return Friday night. I’m expecting more from Embiid tonight. James Harden also has yet to “go off” in this series, even with Embiid not playing either of the first two games. Harden has scored only 53 points in the series, on 15 of 39 shooting. He’s 4 of 19 from behind the arc. If we get anything approaching “typical” performances from Harden and Embiid here, then we should be in VERY good shape. Also, the Sixers’ other three starters (Harris, Maxey, Green) have all shown an ability to contribute in meaningful fashion. For Miami, Jimmy Butler scored 33 points in Game 3, but only one other teammate (Tyler Herro) joined him in double figures and it took a rather inefficient effort. Kyle Lowry didn’t score (attempted only four shots) in his first game back from a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo was a non-factor, going just 2 of 9 from the floor. I really like the Sixers here. |
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05-08-22 | Nationals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
The Angel face the Nationals in LA today. The Angels are a good home team, strong vs. right handed pitching and hitting for a ton of power, if not average. Sandoval, the Angels starter, ran into a bit of trouble after giving up 0 runs in his first three starts. His strikeouts dropped and he allowed 3 runs. The Nationals are 7-8 on the road, and 4-6 vs left-handers. They are hitting well for average, and their offense has stepped it up lately. Fedde, (4.68 ERA), the starter for the Nationals, appeared to finally find his form giving up just 1 run over 7 innings. The Angels have a decided edge in relief, with a sharp 2.15 ERA last five games. The Nat’s pen has struggled, but has shown better lately. This game really hinges on which starter has his stuff. I am wagering on Fedde continuing to improve, with Sandoval not quite as good as he was to begin the season. n I think the Nationals will keep it close. Take the Nationals on the run line +1 1/2 |
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05-07-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | Top | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
After losing Game 1 on their home floor, 101-89, the Celtics bounced back to win Game 2 109-86 and are now back to being favored to win this best of seven series, which now moves to Milwaukee. Despite the change in home court advantage, I like Boston to still walk away with the ATS win in Game 3. The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. the Bucks the last three seasons. With Khris Middleton still out for Milwaukee, it feels like laying points would be a bad idea here. Sure, the Bucks will shoot better than they did in the last game, but will improved shooting be enough? Overall shooting was pretty even in Game 2, but it was from three where the Celtics had a huge edge. They were 20 of 43 while Milwaukee was 3 of 18. Boston was up 25 points at halftime. Boston had the best regular season point differential in the Eastern Conference and is considered the favorite to make the NBA Finals. So it makes sense to bet them here. I’m just not sure Milwaukee can maintain its current defensive rating in the playoffs. Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is expected back for Game 3. His Celtics are now 33-8 SU their last 41 games. They’ve covered five in a row as underdogs and are the better team. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Both home teams on Friday are down 0-2 in their respective series. You would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time the Mavericks beat the Suns head to head. The losing streak is now 11 games. I think tonight is the night they snap it. This projection may seem a bit “brave,” but Dallas is 32-12 straight up at home this year. Looking at the home vs. road splits for both them and the Suns, one thing really stands out. The Mavs are only allowing 101.5 points per game at home, well down from the 108.0 points per game they give up on the road. So you should expect Phoenix to score a lot fewer points here than they did in either Games 1 (121) and 2 (129). The Suns made 64.5% of their shots in Game 2 and were 13 of 25 from three. That’s just not sustainable, especially when now going out on the road and facing what has been one of the better defensive teams in the league. Dallas is 5-0 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 125 or more points. So recent history points to them putting the clamps down and bouncing back here. I think the other key is that Dallas needs someone to step up besides Luka Doncic. At home, that should happen. In each of the first two games, Doncic has scored more than the other four starters combined. Look for a more balanced effort from the Mavs tonight as they get back into the win column. |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot. The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight. As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year. This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog. |
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05-05-22 | Predators v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The Preds are in a pickle early. They were rolled over by the Avalanche, and are without starting goalie Saros. They will need to play tighter and tougher today, The Av's are clipping along a top speed and are a tough opponent anywhere, but are nearly unbeatable at home. Nashville will need to find some quality goaltending and Rittich was not the answer in Game one. It likely won't be as easy, but I expect another fine performance from the Av's today. Colorado - 1 1/2. |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way. Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight. For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game. Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points. |
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05-03-22 | Predators v. Avalanche -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Nashville was lucky to make the play-offs and will be without goaltending stalwart Saros in net. They are unimpressive on the road and lost to just about every good team they faced down the stretch. Yes, they beat the Avs, but Colorado has been coasting for a few games, Expect the Avalanche, a dominant force anywhere, to come out in force tonight. Colorado will have something to prove this year. take the Avs -1 1/2. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight. Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced. Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point. The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday. Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota. Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points. |
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05-01-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 5-2 | Win | 105 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
The Pirates knocked off the Padres on Saturday, winning in extra innings, but I don’t favor their chances for two in a row. Musgrove starts for the Padres, and he has been a paragon of consistency this season, giving up just 6 ER in 25 innings with 2 walks and a strikeout an inning on average. He faces Mitch Keller (6.62 ERA) who has had just 1 quality start in 4 attempts. Opposing batters are hitting close to .300, and he has 7 walks to date. The Pirates’ bullpen has not been much support to date, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00. San Diego’s relievers are just middle of the pack but are still considerably better than the Pirates on average, if not yesterday. The teams are roughly equal in batting avg. but the Padres are hitting for significantly more power, and have been very good (8-4) against right-handers. San Diego has been dominant on the road, especially as a road favorite (6-1!). The Padres are a large favorite on Sunday. Take them on the Run line. San Diego – 1 1/2 |
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05-01-22 | Bucks +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs. The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks. Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. |
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04-30-22 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
It is rookie vs. ace in the Nationals/Giants pitching match-up on Saturday. The Nats’ starter Joan Adon (6.98 ERA) has just one good start in four attempts. He has already lost to the Giants in a five run 4 inning outing. I don’t like his chances against Logan Webb and the Giants, even though Webb has not been at his very bet in his last two efforts. He is still sporting a 2.96 ERA. In all likelihood, Webb will bounce back, but with the best bullpen in the league, the Giants can pull a starter at any time comfortably. The Nationals’ pen is not up to the same standard, nor is the Giants' offense. The Nationals are just 6-15 to date and a rough 3-11 against right-handed pitching. You don’t often meet a better righty than Webb. The Giants are solid at home, very good vs right-handers and a considerable favorite on Saturday. Take the Giants on the run line: they are good for the extra runs. SF – 1 ½. |
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04-29-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Yankees, winners of 6 straight are on fire. Their bats have finally woken up, and that bullpen is still lights out. Nestor Cortez starts on Friday. He is arguably the Yank's best pitcher at the moment, with electric stuff (2 ER in 15 innings, 25 strikouts). KC will do well not to be overwhelmed, even at home. Bubic starts, and only one of his first three appearances has been passible. He has given up more than a run an inning and has been wild as well, with more walks than strikeouts. The Royals have neither the firepower nor the relievers to a. outscore the Yankees or b. rescue Bubic. Take the Yankees on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here. The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight. Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points. |
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04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -134 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
The Guardians face the home favorite Angels today. Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland, and was a go-to starter for me last year. He hasn’t pitched poorly this year, but hasn’t quite found the same form as in 2021. I still have hopes for him. He has been delivering solid length. He faces young and promising Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who is sporting a poor 6.57 ERA to date. He has yet to show what is expected of him. The Guardians have the better bullpen at the moment, and while they haven’t the same home run numbers as the Angels, they are hitting for average and power. Take the Guardians to steal or come close today. Cleveland +1 ½. |
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04-28-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -170 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
Down two games in the series, the Tigers send out lefty Tariq Skubal, up against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. The two young pitchers have similar records to date; both with a poor first start, followed by a pair of fine appearances. Skubal has two shut-out starts; Ober has just given up 1 run in his last two appearances. Once the starters are out, there is quite a difference in relief pitching. Detroit’s pen has been surprisingly good, sporting a very skimpy 2.22 ERA. The Twins’ bullpen ERA in fully two runs worse. Looking at the offenses, the Twins are hitting for more power, while the Tigers have the advantage in batting average. The Tigers’ home run numbers are very low. The Twins have won 7 straight, including the pair against Detroit. They have been good at home but also have struggled against left-handed pitching. I like Skubal’s and the Tigers’ chances on Thursday, if not to win then at least to keep it close. Take the Tigers + 1 ½. |
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04-26-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The Dodgers have great starting pitching to start the season, but none looks much better than Tuesday’s starter Gonsolin. He has given up just 1 run in three starts, pitching to increasing length each outing. He finished 6 innings in his last start. Diamondbacks starter Davies has had mixed results so far, sandwiching two good efforts around a poor 4 inning, 4 run result. The problems for the Diamondbacks will likely begin when the starter comes out. Their bullpen is third worst in the league with a BP ERA more than 2 runs worse than the Dodgers’. The Diamondbacks are no match for the Dodgers on offense either, with a team batting average of just .189 to date. The Dodgers are strong in average and power, and are also holding the opposing teams to a slim .191 batting average. LA is a solid favorite, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Dodgers at -1 ½.. |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight. Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc. Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it. The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4. Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent. Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. |
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04-24-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Today’s starters appear to be going in opposite directions. Brubaker is still working down his ERA from his first start, but has improved in runs allowed and length in each of the next two. He is off a couple of mostly lost years, but the Pirates have high expectations of him now that he is healthy. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 2 runs, with 6 strikeouts in his third start. Cubs’ lefty Steele started well, with 5 innings of shout-out ball, but has been progressively worse in the following two starts. He gave up 4 runs on 2+ innings last time out. No one likes to lose 21-0, so the Pirates’ response ought to be strong. They are a significant underdog on Sunday, but there are things to like about their chances. Their starter is trending in the right direction, they’ve been good versus left handed pitching, and they have played better on the road this spring. The Cubs are tops in offense right now, but scoring 21 runs in a game will pad the figures. They have been poor vs lefthanded pitching and at home, especially as a home favorite. Take the Pirates + 1 1/2. |
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04-24-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Cardinals long time starter Wainwright has one sub-par start, but the other two were vintage Wainwright. He limited hits and runs in both and struck out 6 per game. He contrasts with Reds rookie Lodolo. He has had mixed results so far in his first season; 12 strikeouts in 2 games, but an inflated ERA and 2 losses as well. Lodolo looks like he has some up-side, but may take a few games to settle in. The faltering Reds are 2-12, 0-3 at home, and were shut-out by the Cards on Saturday. Of note, they are just 1-7 against right-handed pitching. They haven’t scored more than two runs in eight games, and it is unlikely that they will break out against Wainwright. The Cards are off to a very good start with solid starting pitching, a bullpen right up at the top of the heap, and better than average offense from a veteran lineup. Here is an opportunity for the offense to take a rookie pitcher down a couple of pegs. Take the Cardinals to win – 1 ½. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one. Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line! The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting. It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons. The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction. Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly. |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +10 v. Suns | Top | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game. But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread. New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. |
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04-17-22 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
33 to 0! Those numbers are the respective ERAs of Sunday’s starters at this point in the season. A’s starter Adam Oller had his MLB debut fall apart after just 1+ innings. Expect better results the second time around, but he will face a very tough Blue Jays lineup off a loss. Young Jays starter Manoah was the real thing last year, and appears to be in good form now if his first start is anything to go by. While the other Jays starters have struggled, Manoah and the bullpen have been solid. Manoah went six innings the first time out, so he may not need that much help. The As have been over-achieving so far this year, and their bats have actually out-paced the Blue Jays to date. Don’t count on this continuing on Sunday. I very much doubt their success against Manoah. Take the Jays –1 1/2 |
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04-17-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
The Yankees are tops in team pitching at the moment. Sundays’ starter Nestor Cortes shut down the potent Blue Jays lineup, giving up just 3 hits in 4+ innings. He is off an eye-opening 2021, and looks to continue this season. Backed by a scorching Yankees bullpen, don’t expect a ton of runs from Orioles’ bats on Sunday. Zimmerman starts for the Orioles. He missed a chunk of time last year, and had a rough spring, but was strong in his first start. The Orioles relief corps can’t match the Yankees bullpen. The 2-5 Orioles’ team batting average is sitting at a buck ninety-nine at the moment, good for 27th in the league. While the Yankees’ offense has not quite hit its stride, it is 12th and climbing, and it really is just a matter of time before a break-out. With their division as tight as it is expected to be, the Yanks can’t afford losses against the Orioles, even at this point in the season. Take New York to win – 1 ½. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three. The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year. The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end. Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game. The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help. |
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04-15-22 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
The Mets have started well with very good pitching and solid hitting so far. The Diamondback's pitching has been OK but hitting has been at a league low. Bassitt was overpowering for the Mets in his first start, lasting 6 innings of shut-out ball. D-backs' pitcher Davies allowed 2 runs with 3 walks but didn't get much support. The Mets' improved offense will help to avoid those low scoring loss as per last year. All 5 of their wins have been by 2 runs or more. The Diamondbacks have scored just 15 runs in 6 games, and it won't get any easier against Bassitt. Take the Mets - 1 1/2. They should be good for the runs. |
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04-14-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
It is Wainwright vs Woodruff in what should be a great pitchers’ duel. Should, depending if Woodruff can recover from his very rough first start. Wainwright was business as usual first time around, continuing to defy age. The Brewers are a significant favorite on Friday, and I can’t see it. St Louis has started well, are at home, has solid pitching and lots of pop. The Brewers have yet to show that they have improved their under-gunned offense. If you want to be cautious, take the Cardinals + 1 ½, but an out and out victory would not surprise me. |
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04-12-22 | Sharks v. Predators -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
After losing 2 straight and still in a playoff race, the Predators will be in “must-win” mode against the Sharks. Nashville is a very good home team, and has beaten the Sharks twice, last time by an 8-0 score. The Sharks are one of the poorest road teams, and have struggled on offense all year, but their defense is also in tough shape in recent games. They have averaged four or more goals against in their last 7 games, losing all 7. Nashville needs a turn-around on offense after a couple of tough opponents, and this is the perfect opportunity. The Stars poor offense plus the recent flood of goals-against equals a Preds’ big win. Take the Predators – 1 ½. |
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04-11-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Young Phillies starter Suarez did everything asked of him last year and looks like a future star, however he had a very limited spring due to visa issues and may be on a short leash this early in the season. The Phillies did some very necessary work on their disaster of a bull pen, but it remains to be seen if it can be enough of a support for Phillies starters. Offensively, the Phillies have power to spare, so they should be competitive in the NL East. They begin a home series as a favorite against the Mets, the projected leader of their division on Monday. Taijuan Walker starts for New York. Walker was excellent until the All star break, then he fell fast and hard. He too has had a short spring, and may also be limited in innings. While both teams have started well, I still have more faith in the Mets’ bullpen. New York’s rebuilt star-studded offense will give the Phillies a run. Look for the Mets to keep it close. Take New York +1 1/2. |
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04-11-22 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 13-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
Monday's A's/Rays matchup pits Blackburn vs. Patino. Blackburn has been a part-time starter with an unheralded career and a high ERA. He has not broken any records this spring. The A's sold the farm and are in fulltime rebuild mode, so any game against the Rays is a bit of a mismatch. If the A's are going to beat the Rays, it won't likely be with Blackburn starting. The Rays are off to a good start to no-one's surprise, due in no small part to their bevy of young tough pitchers. Patino is another promising righty who showed well last year. In limited action, he has performed well this spring. The A's are likely still in shock mode with all of the recent changes. Look for the home-town Rays to wear them out on Monday. Take the Rays - 1 1/2. |
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04-10-22 | Pistons +14.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series. There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread. There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points. |
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04-10-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Cardinals had a very strong spring and have rolled it right into the new season against the Pirates They’ve outscored the Pirates 15-2 in their first two games. This is a solid veteran-lead team with much expected of them. Steve Matz starts on Sunday. Matz turned things around last year and put up the best season of his career. He could be a fine pick-up for St. Louis. While he hasn’t had the best of springs, I am looking for him to carry last year’s success into 2022. Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates. He has struggled in his 6 year career, with a weakness for walks and home runs. He has had high strike-outs this spring, but a very poor ERA. Any success the Pirates have will likely come later in the season as young talent gains experience. Look for the Cardinals to take advantage of a somewhat unformed team in the early stages of the season. Take St Louis – 1 ½. |
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04-10-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The White Sox/Tigers match-up features 2 very fine young pitchers, Kopech for the Sox and Skubal for the Tigers. Skubal pitched a ton of innings for a youngster, and had some very good months in 2021. The Lefty has had a very dominant spring. Kopech spent most of 2021 in the bullpen will just a handful of starts. We will see how he adapts to this new role, but he definitely has the right stuff. He hasn’t shown well this spring. Detroit and Chicago split their first two games. The Tigers have managed to score late and keep things close. The White Sox are a favorite on Sunday, But I am on Skubal and the Tigers. Take Detroit +1 ½. |
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04-08-22 | Knicks v. Wizards | Top | 114-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering! Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March. The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. |
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04-06-22 | Flames -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The Flames have been on a mini-slump lately, but turned it around with an important road win vs. the Kings, and a big game from both Gaudreau and Markstrom. The Ducks, after their first victory in ages, again showed poorly vs the Oilers last time out. Today won’t be any easier; the Flames are tough to play against at any time, and the Ducks, gutted at the trade deadline, show especially poorly vs top teams. Look for Calgary to open up on offense, and their second-ranked defense to stifle the Ducks, as they look to outdo the Oilers. The Flames are a very good road team, and this game is a great opportunity to kick start the team after losing 3 of 4. Take Calgary on the puck line -1 ½. |
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04-05-22 | Spurs v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 116-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
It may seem like San Antonio is getting “a lot” of points in this matchup, but consider this is a team that has been well below .500 most of the year. There is a reason they are just trying to squeak into the play-in tournament. They simply aren’t that good. It’s true that the Spurs have been winning lately, six of their past seven games. But three wins were against a dreadful Portland team and they also beat last place Houston. Denver is in a different class of those aforementioned foes. The Nuggets are looking to clinch a spot in the top six of the conference standings, which will allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. They just need to win two of their final three games, all of which are at home The Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for tonight. That’s significant. Denver has scored 125 or more points in each of its last three contests. This is a team that’s been on fire offensively and without Murray, I don’t see how the Spurs keep up. |
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04-05-22 | Bucks -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Bulls just can’t beat the top teams in the league. On Saturday, they lost by 16 here at home to the Heat, dropping them to 2-19 for the season against the four best teams in the East and West. The Bulls’ record vs. Milwaukee this year is 0-3, two of those losses coming last month, the last one by 28 points. Throw in the fact the Bucks are going to come in motivated tonight and I’m all about fading the Bulls in this one. The Bucks have lost two straight. One of the losses saw them give up 153 points. The other, Sunday vs. Dallas, saw them blow an early lead. That game where Milwaukee allowed 153 points should be disregarded as they rested their starters. The Bucks should be at full strength tonight. Look for Antetokounmpo and Middleton to shoot the ball better than they did vs. Dallas. In that last game, the duo combined to go 15 of 38 from the field and 0 for 7 from three. The Bulls have the worst point differential of the Eastern Conference’s top six teams. In fact, eight teams in the East have a better point differential. Chicago would be fortunate to avoid the play-in round. Milwaukee is all but assured of a top four seed and home court advantage for the first round. But they still have an outside chance at finishing first (2.5 games out) so roll with them Tuesday. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games in Chicago. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated. North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage. I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. |
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04-04-22 | Bruins -1.5 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Columbus suffers on defense and in the net, but their offense tended to keep them competitive. This hasn’t been the case lately; they’ve lost 6 in a row and are well under their season’s average 3.2 goals per game. Merzlikins has been a workhorse for the Jackets, but has been overworked and under-protected. Columbus is better at home but they face the Bruins today, who are a tough match-up in any location. The 8-2 Bruins have stifled most opponents lately, allowing just under 2 goals against in those 8 wins. They’ve also been flashing some offense, scoring 23 goals in their last 4 games. The Bruins are poised to move up from a wild card spot while Columbus is probably just wishing for an end to the bleeding. The Bruins won’t be doing Columbus any favors today. Take Boston on the puck-line – 1 ½. |
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04-03-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Talk about a shocking performance. The Clippers beat Milwaukee 153-119 on Friday night. Now both teams elected to rest starters in that game. But that can’t take away from the fact that it was the most points scored EVER in a regular season game in Clippers’ history. The Clippers are going to be in the play-in tournament, probably as the 8-seed, which means they’ll only have to win once to make the playoffs. That means the Pelicans, currently 9th, will have to win two games in the play-tournament. It would take New Orleans winning all of its remaining games - and the Clippers losing all of theirs - for the teams to trade spaces. The Pelicans have won the last five meetings vs. the Clippers, including all three this season. I understand that coupled with the fact NO is still looking to guarantee its spot in the play in tournament makes them seem like the more attractive side here. But I still like the Clippers. New Orleans is just 16-22 on the road and was lucky to come from behind to beat the Lakers on Friday. They came back from 20+ down to beat the Lakers earlier in the week. The Clippers have scored at least 121 points in three straight games and I cannot see them being swept in the season series. Paul George is back. Lay the short number. |
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04-03-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 129-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
The Lakers desperately have to have this game. Five straight losses have them on the outside of the playoff picture. We tried with them Friday in what was a key showdown vs. New Orleans. LeBron James and Anthony Davis returned to the lineup, but it was not enough as the Lakers blew a fourth quarter lead. Time to try again on Sunday. While the Lakers are just trying to get into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are trying to preserve their status as a top six team in the West and thus avoid the play-in tournament. A 136-130 loss to Minnesota on Friday, the team chasing them, didn’t help. Utah losing last night did help Denver, who can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th. One more win will all but seal a top six spot for Denver. But LA is going to be more desperate here. I know the Lakers seem difficult to back right now - they’ve lost 15 of 19 - but James and Davis are both back now and that makes this a much better team. Getting points at home is a bonus! This is a massive revenge game for the Lakers as well. They lost to Denver by 37 back on January 15th in what was their worst loss of the season. Denver is 1-7 ATS this season after it scored 130 or more points in the last game and 4-10 ATS its last 14 games overall. |
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04-03-22 | Panthers v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
The Panthers managed a huge come-back OT victory on Saturday, but still allowed 6 goals against, and are facing an early start in back to back games. As good as they have been this year, they are not as dominant on the road, managing just 4 victories in their last 8 road games. The Sabres have been my go-to team at the moment, winning more than they lose lately and beating some impressive teams in the process. With an extra day’s rest and a home advantage, I think this potentially fine young team has the brass to win or keep it close on Sunday. Take the Sabres on the puck line + 1 ½. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -3.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly. Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team. The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run. While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game. |
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04-02-22 | Nets -1 v. Hawks | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
Two teams that could end up meeting in the play-in round face off on Saturday in a key Eastern Conference clash. Both Brooklyn and Atlanta are 40-37, part of a three-way tie with Charlotte for eighth place. All three teams want to finish 8th as it would mean they only need to win one game, rather than two, in the play-in round. Atlanta, despite being the hotter team (four wins in a row) and at home, is the slight underdog tonight. That’s because Brooklyn still carries a lot of weight with the oddsmakers. I thought the Nets should have won at home over Milwaukee on Thursday. (They ended up losing in overtime, on some last second free throws, after blowing a seven-point lead with two minutes left in regulation). Brooklyn has been a better team on the road this season. Some of that has to do with Kyrie Irving just recently being cleared to play at home. But recently they went on the road and easily beat Miami. The Nets are 23-16 in road games in 2021-22. Atlanta has scored 131 or more points in each of its last three games. That’s pretty impressive. But I don’t think they can keep that up and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an off-shooting night from the Hawks here. Trae Young did leave the last game with a groin injury, though he did return. Could there be any ill-effect tonight? Before the current four-game win streak, Atlanta was just 1-12 ATS when coming off a SU win. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS the last six times it has been a road favorite. The Nets are the better team here. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. Don’t see that happening against Villanova. There’s a major edge at the charity stripe for ‘Nova as they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in College Basketball history. Kansas shoots it at just 72% from the FT line. Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is just 7-5 ATS. Villanova is also 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 10 seasons. They have the best overall ATS record in the country during that time. The last five head to head meetings between Villanova and Kansas have seen ‘Nova cover all five times. They also won four of the games outright, including a National Semifinal in 2018 by a score of 95-78. These teams seem pretty even to me, and even with the Moore injury, I will be taking the points. |
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04-02-22 | Hornets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 114-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This game carries importance for both teams, but more so for Philadelphia, who has lost three straight games and thus fallen behind the other three teams in the chase for the top spot in the East. Losing to Detroit Friday was inexcusable. Charlotte is guaranteed to be in the play-in round, but would like to finish eighth so that they’d only need to win one game rather than two. With eight wins in their last 10 games, the Hornets are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. I still have concerns with a team that is last in the East in scoring defense. The Hornets give up 116.4 points per game on the road. I think they’ll struggle here to stop Joel Embiid and James Harden. Embiid carried the offense vs. the Pistons, but got no help. Harden shot 4 of 15 and had only 18 points. The bench contributed very little, just eight points in fact. Harden will shoot better and, at home, the bench will play better this afternoon. Speaking of the start time, these early ones always seem to favor the home team. Just not a believer in Charlotte in this spot. Philadelphia will be hungrier. |
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04-01-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
So there’s been some movement with the line here as the statuses of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain “questionable.” The Lakers lost again last night (fourth straight time) and are in danger of not even qualifying for the play-in round. It’s the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs that are battling for the last two play-in spots. One will be left out. The Pelicans are two games up on the other two, so they are in good shape. The Lakers need this win more. This past Sunday these teams played. New Orleans won 116-108. In that game, which LeBron played in, the Lakers were up 23 in the first half. That was in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 15-22 on the road though, so I have my doubts about them here, LeBron or no LeBron. New Orleans has only been favored in 20 games all season and just six times on the road! Hopefully, James and/or Davis plays tonight. Even if they don’t, my money is on LA. |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I like Coastal Carolina to at least cover, and probably win, The Basketball Classic. They get this game at home where they’ve already won twice in the tournament - by 24 and 16 points. Things were a lot closer when the Chanticleers had to travel to face South Alabama on Monday. But they still came out ahead 69-68 in overtime and that is not an easy place to win at (South Alabama had just two home losses previously). Fresno State has played all of its games at home for The Basketball Classic and I can’t see them replicating Monday when they waxed Southern Utah by 19 points. That game saw the Bulldogs make more than 50% of their threes while the opponent shot terribly (31.1% overall, 20% from three). Coastal Carolina is averaging 76.7 points per game at home. They outscore teams by 14.5 PPG here. Fresno State averages only 63.1 points per game on the road. Their last road win came on February 22nd. It was against a terrible Air Force team. The Bulldogs are the favorites here and I’m not exactly sure why! Coastal Carolina is at home, will obviously be motivated and getting points. What’s not to like? FSU is 1-4 ATS its last five tries as a favorite. |
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03-30-22 | Hawks v. Thunder +13 | Top | 136-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
In the NBA, taking a double digit favorite on the road is typically not all that wise. When the favorite is a team that is just a game over .500, laying the points in this situation seems very head-scratching. Then you’ve got the matter of Oklahoma City having covered the spread seven straight times. The Thunder are short-handed, but that was the case when they took on Portland Monday and OKC won that game, in overtime, 134-131. They scored a season-high in points despite being without their top five scorers. Atlanta just faced another short-handed team (Indiana) Monday, on the road, and won by only nine. I just don’t know how you can trust the Hawks to beat the oddsmakers’ projection in this one. The Hawks are just 12-25 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. The Thunder have the best ATS winning percentage in the entire NBA at 65.8%. They are 46-24 ATS as underdogs. Grab the points. |
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03-28-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The Kings are in a playoff spot, but will need to play more consistently to maintain it. Playing the Kraken twice in a row at home will help. They traded for an extra defenceman and have Edler returning so have improved their defense, but otherwise stood pat. LA beat the Kraken by a pair of goals on Saturday, and a similar outcome can be expected today. This is a “must win” game for the Kings. The Kraken had a pair of wins against a pair of bottom feeders, but with all the deadline losses to an already poor team, will have trouble competing against any talented opponent. They struggle to score at the best of times, and have lost major pieces to both offense and defense. As the impact of those losses sinks in, it is unlikely that we see very much success for the Kraken from now until the season’s end. The Kings are heavily favored, but the price on the puckline is acceptable. This is a good opportunity for the Kings to show some offensive muscle. Look for the Kings to roll over the Kraken for a second time in two outings. Kings to win -1 ½. |
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03-28-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
San Antonio still has a shot, folks. A shot of making the play-in round as they are just one game back of the Lakers, who lost yesterday, for 10th place (the last spot). Having won three straight, the Spurs now have an excellent chance of making it a perfect 4-0 road trip as they take on the Rockets tonight. Houston has won two in a row, both games in Portland, but has not posted three consecutive victories at any time this season, outside of a stunning seven-game win streak in late November/early December. In fact, this is just the second time in 2022 that they have won back to back games. Before beating Portland two straight times, the Rockets had the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by a combined 55 points. Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray had an “off” shooting night in the last game, but the team still won anyway. I certainly expect Murray to shoot better than 4 of 19 tonight and make a three. (He was 0 for 5 on threes Saturday). Houston gives up a league-worst 117.6 points per game. This is a game that the Spurs simply MUST have, if they are to make the play-in round. I don’t think it will be close. |
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03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina +3 v. South Alabama | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
We’re down to the semifinals of “The Basketball Classic” with Coastal Carolina taking on South Alabama. Winner here will meet the winner of Southern Utah vs. Fresno State (also played tonight). I’m taking the dog. This game is taking place in Mobile, but the home court advantage hasn’t been a big boost to South Alabama so far in this tournament. The previous two games were at home and the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS. They obviously won both, but by a total of only six points. Will USA shoot 58.8% again like they did last week vs. USC Upstate? Unlikely. Coastal Carolina has held its opponents to 38.4% shooting overall for the season. The Chanticleers have been far more dominant than South Alabama has in this tournament. CC’s first two wins have been by 24 and 16 points. Going back to the end of the regular season, this is a team that has won five of its last six games. These teams are conference rivals, both hailing from the Sun Belt. It is a huge revenge opportunity for the underdog, who lost the only regular season matchup - by three points at home. Coastal has lost three in a row to USA, but all three losses were by six points or less. They will be amped for this opportunity to exact revenge. |
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03-27-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is an important game that could determine who gets the home court advantage in a possible first round playoff series. Utah and Dallas are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference, both teams sporting 45-29 records. The Jazz won the first two meetings this season, but the Mavs took the last one. All three times the home team has won. Both teams are coming off losses. Utah is actually coming off three straight losses. They have not scored more than 106 points in any of those games. It was a 107-101 loss in Charlotte on Friday. This is the Jazz’s fifth straight game on the road, all played in the last eight days. While Utah was losing in Charlotte, Dallas suffered a critical loss in Minnesota, 116-95. Not only did that loss prevent the Mavs from overtaking the Jazz, but it moved them closer to 7th place, which would mean the play-in round. They are now only 2.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves. The good news for Dallas is that they are 15-3 ATS this season following a game where they did not score 100 points. I can’t see them shooting as poorly tonight as they did on Friday when they made only 38 percent from the field, including 10 of 43 three-point shooting. Defense should improve tonight as well. The Mavs are giving up just 102.1 points per game at home, best in the league. The Jazz have not fared well as underdogs, going just 3-7 ATS when getting points. That includes a 28-point loss in Boston earlier in the week. The offensive downturn coincides with the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic, who is set to miss his eighth straight game tonight. Lay the short number with the home team here. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
St. Peter’s has stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. In addition to upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, the Peacocks have covered the spread in 10 straight games. They have not lost a game since Feb 20th at Siena. Somewhat lost in the Peacocks’ miracle run is the team they’re facing in the Regional Final is an 8-seed. No one expected North Carolina to get here either, even though the Tar Heels have now won 13 of their last 15 games. With Duke advancing to the Final Four yesterday, EVERYONE is going to be anticipating a Duke-UNC rematch next weekend (UNC handed Duke a humbling loss in Coach K’s final home game). But St. Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. They are top 25 nationally in that regard, which tells me that this run is not all smoke and mirrors. This is a team that just held Purdue, who had the country’s most efficient offense, to 64 points. The Peacocks may not win, but I’m taking the points. Remember that North Carolina trailed most of the game against UCLA. I don’t see the favorite scoring a ton of points in this matchup. |
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03-26-22 | Houston -2 v. Villanova | Top | 44-50 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that. Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game. This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court. The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits. Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points. |
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03-26-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a big game for both teams. New Orleans is tied with the Lakers for the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is two games back and can cut that difference in half with a win tonight. The Spurs are 2-0 on the current trip, including a 37-point win at Portland in their last games. Before that, they took advantage of Golden State not having Steph Curry and won 110-108. In that Portland game, the Spurs made 19 three-pointers, tying a season-high, and 13 of those came in the first half. I do not anticipate them being that prolific from long range here. The last time these teams played, the Pelicans ran away with a 33-point victory, 124-91. That game took place last week. Not enough has changed in the last eight days to convince me the Spurs can make up the gap. New Orleans is coming off a 126-109 win over Chicago Thursday night. Over the last six games, they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. They are also 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 games as a favorite while San Antonio is on a 6-13 ATS run as a dog + 4-12 ATS run off an ATS win. Lay the points here. |
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03-25-22 | Rockets v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
In what is surely a sign that the Trail Blazers are at their nadir, tonight they are underdogs - at home - to the Rockets. Having won just two games after the All-Star Break and announcing Damian Lillard’s season is over, there’s little to celebrate in Portland right now. The team just lost by 37 here to San Antonio. But look for “pride” to kick in and them to beat Houston. The Rockets have the worst record in the NBA and the worst point differential. I don’t believe they should ever be favored on the road. It’s happened only one other time all season. There have been only five games that Houston has been favored in, period. They just lost by 19 at Dallas and have only three wins since the Break. The teams will also play in Portland tomorrow night. The Blazers have captured seven of the previous eight head to head encounters, including 125-110 at Houston in late January. Not only has Houston lost 19 of its last 22 games overall, they are 0-11 L11 road games. And they are favored tonight! I just don’t see why. This is the worst team in the NBA! "It was a disappointing effort. It was a really embarrassing first half. Give up 81 points, they I think at that time had 21 fast-break points, 30 points in the paint, they had it everywhere. I don't know how many threes they made (it was 13). They had it going every which way. By way of that, it was pretty ugly. "I don't think we prepared for the battle that was going to happen. Our guys looked tired, man. They looked really tired to be honest with you." Those were the comments of Blazers’ head coach Chauncey Billups after the loss to the Spurs. Again, look for his team to come out with some pride, at home, after suffering such an embarrassing loss. |
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03-25-22 | Providence +8 v. Kansas | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 128 h 30 m | Show |
So Providence has proven a lot of its detractors wrong thus far by turning in two strong efforts here in the NCAA Tournament. First they defeated high-flying South Dakota State 66-57. That one was impressive because they held the second highest scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points less than its season average. Then, in the second round, the Friars really put the clamps down in a 79-51 blowout of Richmond. Now that was a 13 and a 12 seed that Providence faced. Now they face top seeded Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten Texas Southern (a 16-seed) and Creighton (who finished several games back of Providence in the Big East). So this is also their stiffest test so far in the Big Dance. Providence has lost only five games this season and only three times by more than five points. That’s a fewer number of overall losses than Kansas. As an underdog, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread. Creighton shot well against Kansas, at least from three, where it made 43%. I think Providence is capable of replicating that kind of long-range success. The Friars are 22-1 this season when making at least 30% or better from beyond the arc. Perfect trend alert: Providence is 8-0 ATS against teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Kansas averages 78.7. I think the Friars will hold the Jayhawks well below their season total, just as they did to South Dakota State and Richmond, both of whom shot under 36 percent. Take the points. |
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03-25-22 | Capitals v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Watching the Sabres play, I've been impressed at the potential this team has, and it may well be that they are starting to realize some of it right now. They've won 3 straight, and 5 of 7, beating some big names in the process. Although saddled with the 26th rated defense for the season, they have given up only 8 goals in those 5 wins. Meanwhile, the Capitals have lost 2 straight, and 5 of 6 of their previous games were decided by a single goal. They are a very good road team, but aren't quite getting the goal-tending they were, and there are some significant injuries to consider. They may very well play well enough to win, but I expect this youthful and exciting Sabres team to keep it close, as they did with the Penguins. Take the Sabres + 1 1/2. |
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03-24-22 | Blackhawks v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The Black Hawks won last night, but don't look for any kind of streak developing after losing big time at the trade deadline. Fleury has kept them in many a game this season. The goal-tending situation will be one to watch, starting today. L.A. has played unevely lately, but will be bolsterd by a huge win against the Preds. Their defense, badly depleted by injuries, received a boost with a key return and acquisition. The Kings' offense broke out against the Predators. Here is a second opportunity for some big numbers. The Black Hawks are on a back-to-back, have struggled against the Kings in the past, and will likely be a very demoralized team. This is a must win for the Kings. Take L.A. to win -1 1/2. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 17 m | Show |
I think we’re about to see the end of a legendary coaching career as this should end up being Coach K’s final time on the bench when Duke faces Texas Tech. Even though they shot 57.1 percent from the field, the Blue Devils’ 85-76 win over Michigan State in the second round was a little misleading, at least when judged on the final score. Duke trailed with under three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-2 run. The final four points all came at the free throw line, in the last 16 seconds, giving the Blue Devils the cover. Duke will not be shooting 57% against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the best defensive team in the country. They just held Duke’s ACC rival Notre Dame to 32.7% shooting in a 59-53 Round 2 victory. Texas Tech failed to cover that game as they were laying eight at the betting window. Here we do not need to really be concerned with the pointspread. By the way, the Red Raiders are 18-9 ATS this season when faced with a team that has a winning record. Duke’s defense has been lousy for about the last two months. Over the last six games, the only team that failed to hit 76 against them was first round opponent Cal State Fullerton. Texas Tech scored 97 in its first round game, so they are more than capable of making the Blue Devils pay at the defensive end. |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
Washington State and BYU meet in the NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday, at Provo. BYU has advanced to this point with consecutive 90+ point performances over Long Beach State (93-72) and Northern Iowa (90-72). Both wins came here at home. Wazzu has gotten to this point mostly with defense, downing Santa Clara (another WCC team) 63-50 and then winning at SMU (which is not easy to do) 75-63. The Cougars were three-point underdogs for that second game. BYU has lost only two home games this season. One was obviously to Gonzaga, the other was to San Francisco, another NCAA Tournament team. Earlier I talked about BYU’s recent offensive output. Well, they also are allowing only 63.9 points per game at home. Washington State has played pretty well recently, but is 0-8 against NCAA Tournament teams. BYU is obviously not a NCAA Tournament team, but they were pretty close to being one; I’d say they were one of the top teams that did not get in. I like them as small home favorites. As for the Cougars, they are just 2-6 ATS off their last eight straight up wins. That was 1-6 ATS off their last seven before upsetting SMU three days ago. BYU has had one more day to get ready for this game. |
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03-23-22 | Nets -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Memphis won’t have Ja Morant on Wednesday and that puts them at a disadvantage in this non-conference showdown versus Brooklyn, who will have Kyrie Irving in its lineup (not to mention Kevin Durant as well). The Nets have finally started to put it together, winning six of seven. The lone game they dropped in that stretch was by two points to Dallas in the second night of a back-to-back. In their last game, the Nets beat the Jazz 114-106 and that was short-handed. The team was led by Durant’s 37 points. With the winning run, Brooklyn is only three games back of a top six spot in the East. Getting into the top six is the goal as it would allow them to avoid the play-in round. Memphis is second out West, but not having Morant is huge for this contest. I know the team has won without him in the past. But now they’re facing a team that has two of the best players in the league. The Nets have been better on the road this season, averaging 115.5 points and going 22-15. A lot of that is due to Irving’s status. With the opposition missing its best player and the Nets surging, it’s appropriate to back the visitors here. |
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03-23-22 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The Sabres at 6-3 are a bit of a conundrum at the moment, beating some tough opponents one game, then not even showing up in the odd match. None the less, this is a young team with real potential. On the nights when they do show up, the Sabres have been very successful at limiting goals against. They face the Penguins, who won in convincing fashion last night, but are in a back-to-back situation tonight. With Jarry playing last night, the Sabres may catch a small break, as De Smith is expected in net. The Penguins have won 3 straight, and have been very tough to play against, allowing 2 goals or less in 5 of 6 games. They are not the youngest team, so may lose a step tonight, but are still a heavy favorite, possibly too high a favorite for my liking. I think the Sabres, who stood pat at the trade deadline, have a good opportunity tonight, and will bet them on the puck line. Take the Sabres + 1 ½. |
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03-22-22 | Senators v. Islanders -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The Islanders stood pat at the trade deadline, and have been playing a solid and predictably defensive style of play lately. They take on a confused Senators team, who they handled successfully in February. The Isles have given up just 5 goals in 3 games, and have shown more offense than expected, considering their 2.7 goals-for avg. this season. They are healthy (how often can one say that about a team!), and have won 4 straight games at home. The Senators added 4 players and lost 3, so it is a good thing there are names on their jerseys. They have been playing particularly poorly of late, losing 4 of 5, and have been outscored 21 -11. The Islanders are a large and legitimate favorite on Tuesday. Not even considering their poor play, there is a lot of trade deadline dust to settle before this Senators team will play cohesively. Missing Chabot doesn’t help either. Take the Islanders on the puck line. |
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03-22-22 | Hawks v. Knicks | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
The Hawks currently hold what the Knicks want; that being the last spot for the NBA’s play-in round. Fortunately for Atlanta, they have a five-game lead over New York, even after losing two of three. That should tell you what kind of a struggle it’s been for the Knicks this season. I like Atlanta here … big. These teams developed a bit of a “rivalry” last year with Trae Young’s antics in Madison Square Garden. The Hawks ousted the Knicks from the playoffs and wound up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. As you can tell from looking at the current standings, there’s been some severe regression for both sides. Pointspread wise, the Knicks have been doing better than the Hawks … lately. New York is 7-2 ATS its previous nine games, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS its L9. But the Knicks have failed to cover two straight and lost three of five, straight up. New York is looking for a season sweep here. They’ve beaten Atlanta three times this season, including on Christmas Day when Young was out. But I’m anticipating a much different result on Tuesday with Young in the lineup. I look at this matchup in rather simple terms. The Hawks are better than the Knicks and this is a really short number. While they haven’t been covering much of late, Atlanta has won four of its last six games straight up. The revenge angle should work in their favor tonight. I just can’t see them losing for a fourth straight time to a Knicks team that is 11 games under .500. |
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03-21-22 | Wizards -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Washington finally ended its losing streak, defeating the Lakers on Saturday by a score of 127-119. They had to erase a 16-point deficit to do so, but no one is complaining in the Nation’s capital. The Wizards are still 4.5 games back of the last “play-in” spot in the Eastern Conference and desperately need more wins. Fortunately for them, they’ll be in Houston Monday night to face a Rockets team that is 17-54 on the year and already eliminated from playoff contention. That 17-54 SU record is the worst in the entire NBA. Houston has lost its last five games, four of them by at least 13 points. The Wizards will take this game seriously as they actually lost to the Rockets earlier in the year, at home, by a score of 114-111. The Rockets have won only six times since that victory, which was back on January 5th. Houston has only two wins in its last 20 games. All things considered, this is a very short number to go against them. The Rockets have given up more than 120 points in six of the last seven games. That’s a problem when you only average 108.9 PPG like they do. Washington put up 127 on the Lakers with Porzingis leading the way with 27. Back the road favorite here. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Notre Dame has already had to win twice to get here and may very well be on fumes going into this second round matchup against Texas Tech. That’s problematic as this Red Raiders team is legit, as we saw in their complete dismantling of Montana State on Friday. I had TT in that one. They won 97-62 as a 15-point favorite. The result was never in doubt with the Red Raiders jumping out to a 18-4 lead less than five minutes in. They wound up shooting 66.7% for the game, the fourth highest percentage ever in the first round, and made 12 of 20 threes. Notre Dame is one of the weaker teams left in the field. Let’s not forget that it took TWO overtimes to get by Rutgers in the “First Four.” Then the Irish got hot themselves against Alabama, shooting 10 of 16 from three-point land. But Texas Tech is perhaps the top defensive team in the country. They are 1st in the defensive efficiency rankings over at KenPom. Look for them to shut down Notre Dame in this one. Don’t be concerned about the Red Raiders being unable to follow up an impressive offensive display. They are 4-0 ATS off the previous four games where they scored 90 or more points. |
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03-20-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Carolina has lost 3 games straight on the road, and has averaged just 2.5 goals-for a game in their last 10. Much is expected of this team, and it is about time they turned things around offensively. Andersen won’t have been happy losing to the Leafs, so look for a better performance from him tonight. The ‘Canes are a dominant team at home, with an extra day of rest, and have the best defense in the league. While the Rangers also rate highly on defense, much of that comes on the back of their star goalie Shesterkin, who will not start tonight. The Rangers are not as good on the road, and with Georgiev in net, and in a back to back situation, they will struggle against the Hurricanes. The odds-makers agree with me, as the Canes are a tall favorite. Here is a dawg that will have it’s day today. Take the Hurricanes to win -1 ½. |
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03-20-22 | Houston -4.5 v. Illinois | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Illinois barely survived Chattanooga in the first round, not taking the lead until the final minute. But that’s when you want to have the lead and the Illini prevailed 54-53. It was certainly not an impressive performance and I think the Fighting Illini are in trouble here against 5-seed Houston. Houston made it to the Final Four last season. The Cougars began this year’s tourney run with a dominant 82-68 win over UAB. It’s now eight covers in the last nine games for Kelvin Sampson’s team, who is 30-5 on the year. Illinois was outrebounded by Chattanooga. That’s a terrible sign. So are the Illini’s offensive numbers from the L4 games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 0-4 against the spread. Three of those games have seen the team score 63 points or less and shoot worse than 40 percent from the field. They made only 3 of 17 three-point attempts against Chattanooga. Houston averages 76 points per game while giving up an average of just 59.1. They are one of only five teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a championship contender. Illinois has failed to cover each of the last six times they’ve been off a straight up win. Lay the points. |
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03-19-22 | Memphis +10.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
So, after a sluggish start, Gonzaga was finally able to pull away from 16-seed Georgia State in the first round. The Zags used a 24-1 second half run to put the game away, but still ended up not covering the large 22.5-point spread. (They won 93-72). Once again, in the second round vs. Memphis, I think the spread will prove to be too large. Memphis has been on a real roll down the stretch. They beat Boise State in the first round 64-53 and covered the three-point spread. The Tigers took control of that game pretty early and never were really threatened after that. They have now won 13 of their last 15 games. I don’t think Gonzaga can count on the wide shooting discrepancy that they enjoyed vs. Georgia State. They shot 50.7%, which isn’t that atypical, but Georgia State shot just 32.9%. Memphis actually did a better job defensively against Boise State, holding the Broncos to 31.5%. The defensive improvement we’ve seen from the Tigers, since Penny Hardaway’s infamous press conference in late January, has been substantial. The most points they’ve given up in a game since February is 74. Only three times have they allowed more than 70. The Tigers are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 tries as an underdog. Grab the points here. |
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03-19-22 | Bucks -3 v. Wolves | Top | 119-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
These are two of the hotter teams in the league right now. Milwaukee comes in having taken eight of their previous nine games and has covered the spread in seven of them. Minnesota has been even more profitable with a 9-1 SU and ATS run. Wednesday night, the Bucks couldn’t miss as they shot 51.4 percent from three on their way to a 135-126 win over Sacramento. Offense has not been in short supply for the defending champs during this winning run of theirs as they have averaged 124.6 points per game this month, getting held under 110 just once. Minnesota is probably not the team that can slow down the Bucks. While the Timberwolves’ defensive numbers are better at home, they’ve still given up an average of 113.4 points over their last five games. This is a revenge spot for Milwaukee as they lost at home to the T’wolves, back in October. The final score was 113-108. The Bucks were short-handed going into that game. No such issues tonight as they look to go to 7-2 ATS their last nine games at Minnesota. Lay the short number. |
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03-19-22 | Blackhawks v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
The breakup of the Black Hawks has begun, as they've lost a real fan favorite and spark plug to the Lightning. We have also likely seen the last of Fleury, who has kept things close for the Hawks in net. Look for Lankinen to start today. The Wild are still in a play-off spot, but need to gain some consistency or that could change quickly. This is a great situational game for a much needed win against a demoralized Black Hawks team, who are poor on the road at the best of times. Talbot looks to have improved lately, and the Hawks don't have much in the way of offense anyway. The Wild have an explosive offense, and today will be the day when it expresses itself. Look for the Wild to 'kick 'em while they are down" and win this one going away. Take the Wild - 1 1/2 today. |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova -15 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show |
Villanova should really smash Delaware here. The Blue Hens made a surprise run through the Colonial Tournament as the 5-seed. Now they are facing the Big East Tournament Champs and one of the best teams in the country. This isn’t exactly a Saturday vs. Northeastern. ‘Nova is 10-1 its last 11 games and that one loss was by two points. They are probably going to make a deep run in this Tournament. Late in the game, when it comes to covering this spread, it is nice that the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country when it comes to making free throws. Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament in five previous tries. They are also 0-15 all-time against Villanova. They had lost three straight games entering the CAA Tournament. Since 2014, Jay Wright’s Wildcats have five wins by 20 or more points as a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament. On offense, ‘Nova will overwhelm the Delaware. Defensively, the Wildcats allow just 63.1 points per game. |
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03-18-22 | Montana State v. Texas Tech -15 | Top | 62-97 | Win | 100 | 89 h 31 m | Show |
Look for Texas Tech to have no trouble beating Montana State on Friday. This 3 vs. 14 matchup is a total mismatch. Texas Tech is #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency. This will serve them well. Montana State normally shoots well, but there’s a big difference in going from facing your typical team out of the Big Sky to the one the Bobcats will face here. Though Montana State was regular season and conference tournament champs out of the Big Sky, this is their first NCAA Tourney appearance since 1996. Texas Tech, who made the Big 12 Final against Kansas, is a regular in this event. They played for the National Championship, under Chris Beard, in 2019. The Red Raiders beat every single Big 12 team at least once this year and had two wins over Baylor, a 1-seed. They are also 8-1 ATS off their last nine straight up losses. Montana State simply will not be able to shoot the three as well as they normally do here. Lay the points. |
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03-17-22 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
There have been only five years where a 12-seed has never beaten a 5 in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen in this Tournament, so why not take the points here with New Mexico State, a team that is 26-6 on the year? The Aggies have been to the NCAA Tournament before. They made it three straight years from 2017-19. Incredibly, they have lost 11 consecutive first round games, going back to the mid-90s. Eventually, a team is due. This team is better than most previous editions. UConn has not been good at covering games. They are only 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. During that time, they have only four wins by more than seven points. The Huskies have also not won a NCAA Tourney game since 2016. New Mexico State has wins over Davidson, Washington State, Cal Irvine and UTEP. So I don’t expect them to be intimidated at all. Their record as an underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread. I have to take the points here in what should be a close matchup throughout. |
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03-17-22 | South Dakota State v. Providence -2 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 63 h 27 m | Show |
Providence is much maligned as a four seed as they won a lot of close games and thus probably are not as good as their overall record. But the Friars are being WAY undervalued for their first round matchup vs. 13-seed South Dakota State, a team that plays little in the way of defense. The underdog Jackrabbits rank 223rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That is second worst among ALL tournament teams. Not that a team needs any added motivation to win in March Madness, but the way Providence exited the Big East Tournament - an 85-58 loss to Creighton - should have them ready to go here. This is tied for the shortest spread ever in a 4 vs. 13 matchup. The Friars will take it as a sign of disrespect. While South Dakota State has not lost a game since Dec 15, the conference that they play in (Summit) is weak. The Jackrabbits live and die by the three, so thankfully Providence can hang its hat on the fact they are allowing just 31.2 percent shooting from long range. Lay the short number. |
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03-16-22 | Devils v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
After enduring a flood of goals courtesy of the Canucks, the Devils head directly into the flames (Calgary style) in a 3 games/4 nights situation. Both Devils goal-tenders were shelled on Tuesday, getting little support from that 26th rated defense. The Flames have given up just three goals in their last 3 games when Markstrom was in net, so don't bet on much offense from a young and tired Devils club. Calgary is averaging just about 4 goals-for a game lately, and the majority of their considerable wins are by two or more. Calagary is a huge favorite, and rightly so, howver the odds on the puck line are very palatable. Take the Flames -1 1/2. |
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03-15-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I won with the Pacers, plus the points, Sunday night. They were getting double digits in Atlanta and “slid in” through the “back door,” meaning they outscored the Hawks by 10 in the fourth quarter to lose by just three points. Indiana is now 2-13 SU in games decided by three points or less this season. Though I was happy to cash a ticket, it was not a great effort from the Pacers on Sunday, at least in the first half. They let Atlanta shoot 60% before halftime, 59.1% from three, and Trae Young scored 33 of his game-high 47 in the first half. Indiana was down by 19 at one point. Seven Hawks finished the game in double figures. Now Indiana must contend with Memphis, who has been one of the better teams in the league this season. The Grizzlies have won their last three games and are tied for second in the West. Memphis has failed to cover the spread its last two times out, but continues to score lots of points. Over the last five games, the team is averaging 122.2 PPG. Dillon Brooks is now back in the lineup after missing 27 games. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their last 28 road games and should not have much difficulty here defeating the injury-riddled Pacers, who play little defense. Three of Indiana’s last four games have seen them surrender at least 127 points. Memphis has covered nine straight Tuesday games. |
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03-14-22 | Nuggets v. 76ers -2 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Philadelphia was able to get by Orlando last night, though they needed overtime to do so. The Sixers won 116-114, obviously not covering the large spread, but all that matters to them is that they bounced back from the embarrassing home loss to Brooklyn from three nights prior. The Sixers being in a back to back here has definitely created some value as it’s a really short number that they’re being asked to lay, at home no less. They are up against a Denver team that not only is 0-4 ATS its last four games, but was soundly beaten by the 76ers (103-89) back in November. Since James Harden came over in the blockbuster trade, Philadelphia has lost only one time. They’ve scored 116 or more points in each of the six wins. The Nuggets have been giving up lots of points lately, an average of 118.8 over their last five games. They got torched for 127 by Toronto on Saturday and that was at home. I don’t think that the back to back matters too much for Philadelphia, even with last night’s game going to OT, as they’d been off for two days prior to that. The Sixers are 12-4 ATS off an ATS loss. |
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03-13-22 | Pacers +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a big number, considering Atlanta is only tied for ninth in the conference with a below .500 record. While they’ve been a bit better of late, going 6-4 the last 10 games, the Hawks haven’t beaten anyone by more than six points in over two weeks. Atlanta did beat Indiana by 21 when they played last month. But the Pacers don’t get blown out all that often. They have 12 losses this year by three points or less. That’s the most in the league. They are being outscored by an average of just 2.3 points per game. Last night was a win for the Pacers as they went to San Antonio and prevailed by a score of 119-108. The last time this team won two straight was mid-January. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances of ending that streak tonight. But I do believe Indiana will cover in this spot. They are 7-4 ATS in the second game of a back to back. The Hawks have a game tomorrow night, so they may not be looking to go “all out.” Expect this to be a close game and take the points. |
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03-13-22 | Richmond v. Davidson -3.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Davidson, win or lose today, is probably safe when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. However, that doesn’t mean the A-10 regular season champs and top seed won’t be motivated to defeat Richmond on Sunday. I’m laying the points as fatigue is probably going to be a factor for the underdog here. Richmond will be playing its fourth game in as many days. Going back to Thursday, the Spiders rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to get past Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve upset the #3 (VCU) and #2 (Dayton) in this tournament. It’s a big ask for them to now take out Davidson, who has been the best team in the conference this season. Davidson has only had to win two games to get here and wasn’t really challenged in either. The Wildcats were 18-point winners over Fordham in the quarterfinal round, then 15-point winners over St. Louis in the semis. In both games, they jumped out to big leads by halftime and never looked back. Richmond was again down at the half in yesterday’s game vs. Dayton. In fact, they were down as many as 14 in the second half, with just over 13 minutes remaining. The Spiders did not take the lead for good until less than two minutes remained. Davidson is the better team and has had the easier path to get here. They won at Richmond, 87-84, in the only regular season matchup. I believe Richmond’s defense will crack here against a Davidson offense that is Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency. |
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03-12-22 | Raptors v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 127-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Denver hasn’t lost two straight games in over a month. They’ll look to keep that streak alive tonight when they play host to Toronto, who was in action last night. The Raptors won in Phoenix last night, thanks to 42 points from Gary Trent Jr. But it will be exceedingly difficult to match that level of performance in the second night of a back to back. The Nuggets lost to Golden State Thursday, 113-102. It was just their third loss since Feb 6. Off the previous two, Denver bounced back to not just win, but cover as well. One of those spots was against Toronto, whom they defeated 110-109 as a 4.5-point road dog back on Feb 12. Steph Curry got hot at the right time against the Nuggets in that last game. The Warriors closed on a 13-0 run, so the final score was a tad misleading. This is Toronto’s fourth straight game on the road, third in four nights and second in two nights. A bad spot. They are 4-9 ATS this season after playing three straight on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors are 7-22 ATS their last 29 meetings with the Nuggets and 0-6 ATS their last six trips into Denver. |
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03-12-22 | Red Wings v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Some of the Red Wings' scores have more resembled the NFL than the NHL lately. They've allowed 42 goals in 7 games. Ouch! The game against the Flames is a defensive mismatch, pitting the league's 31st defense against #2. The Flames have a dynamic offense to go with that stellar D, and a hot goalie in Markstrom to boot. They also have the discipline and a very outspoken coach to avoid any thought of taking the Red Wings for granted. Take the Flames on the puck line at -1 1/2. A rare 2 1/2 is available, but that would be tempting fate. |
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03-12-22 | Creighton v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 48-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Creighton turned in an incredible performance yesterday in its semifinal win over Providence. They won 85-58. It was the largest loss for a #1 seed in Big East Tournament history. Providence couldn’t make anything, going 3 of 24 from three and shooting just 30% overall. I think it’s important to note that Providence seemed to be overrated and to remember that - with no starters back from last year’s Sweet 16 team - Creighton was picked to finish eighth in the Big East this year. Thanks to yesterday, their 9th win in the last 11 games, the Bluejays are all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament. Thus, the motivation may not be there on Saturday against Villanova, a supremely talented team that is the best in the Big East. ‘Nova beat UConn Friday, 63-60, avenging its last loss. Speaking of avenging losses, that’s precisely what the Wildcats did against Creighton the last time the teams met. After Creighton took the first meeting, ‘Nova bounced back with a 34-point win on January 5th. Villanova is simply the much better team at the offensive end, where it ranks 8th nationally in efficiency. Creighton is 0-3 all-time in Big East Tournament Finals. They can’t possibly play any better than they did yesterday nor can they count on Villanova shooting as poorly as Providence did. As for the Wildcats, they managed to still win last night despite not making a single field goal in the final five minutes. The favorite doesn’t turn it over and is one of the best free throw shooting teams in NCAA history. |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The big shocker in the SEC yesterday was Texas A&M upsetting top seed Auburn, 67-62. The Aggies, as 9-point underdogs, led most of the way and were up by as many as 20! That win greatly improved their NCAA Tournament chances, though another win today may be needed. Arkansas is in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, but winning the SEC Championship would be nice. It was an impressive 79-67 win for the Hogs over LSU on Friday, improving their record to 15-2 SU since Jan 8. They have also gone 14-2-1 ATS in that same stretch. Both regular season meetings between A&M and Arkansas were closely contested. Each team won at home, A&M by five and Arkansas by three. I just don’t think A&M is capable of playing any better than it did yesterday when it made 50% from three at the same time Auburn shot just 30% overall. The Razorbacks are pretty clearly the better team here and A&M is playing its third game in three days. One of those games saw the Aggies go to overtime. So their tank could be close to empty by the second half today. Arkansas built itself a nice double digit lead in the second half yesterday and thus fatigue should not be a factor at all for them. Lay the points. |
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03-11-22 | Wizards v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
So there is a question whether or not LeBron James is going to suit up tonight. Regardless if he does or not, I’m on the Lakers. Wednesday may have been a new nadir for LA as they lost in overtime to the lowly Rockets. With or without James, the Lakers are going to come out motivated on Friday after being ripped in the media. Facing the Wizards helps. They too are off a gutting loss, letting the Clippers score the game’s final 11 points on Wednesday, sending Washington to yet another defeat, their 20th in the last 32 games. The Wizards are 5-16 ATS vs. the Western Conference and 0-6 vs. the Pacific Division. If LeBron plays, obviously I’m a lot more confident. Either way though, expect the Lakers to win and cover. |
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03-11-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
I don’t think you can undersell the importance of the rest advantage here for Wisconsin, in a tough tournament like the Big 10. Michigan State played last night and was taken down to the wire by Maryland, grinding out a 76-72 win. It shouldn’t have ended up that close for Sparty, who had a 20-point lead over the Terps. Don’t look for MSU to shoot as well here as they did last night when they made 50% overall and 47.4% from three. Wisconsin should be very eager to take the court tonight after they shockingly lost the home finale, to Nebraska, as 13-point favorites. The Badgers basically trailed the entire way in that game against the last place team in the Big 10. But at no point this season have the Badgers lost two in a row. They have won a lot of close games. But looking at the number, the possibility of a SU win/ATS loss here is very minimal. Michigan State has lost 7 of its last 11 games. |
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03-11-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Nicholls State -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Nicholls State is the top seed here in the Southland Tournament and received a double-bye into today’s semifinals. They face Texas A&M-CC, who defeated Houston Baptist by a score of 75-60 yesterday. Texas A&M-CC covered the 5.5-point spot in that game. Texas A&M-CC has won five of its last six games. But the one loss did come to Nicholls, 86-75 at home. They were swept in the season series, also losing at Nicholls by three. Nicholls has now won the last four head to head meetings and six of the last seven. Going back to January 27th, Nicholls has lost only two games, both to SE Louisiana, who they very well could end up seeing in tomorrow’s final. The Colonels come in averaging 79.6 points per game, tied for 15th in the country, and have exceeded 80 points in seven consecutive games. In the two regular season games vs. Texas A&M-CC, Nicholls scored 83 and 86 points. The Colonels are the best team in the Southland and I just can’t see them being upset here. Not with a rest advantage. Lay the short number. |