This is a 10* play on TORONTO

The bodies are certainly starting to pile up for Golden State. Already without Kevin Durant, they've now lost reserve forward Kevon Looney for the remainder of this series and Klay Thompson is injured too. Though Thompson has vowed to play in Game #3, we still don't like the idea of the Warriors laying this many points to a revenge-minded and healthy Raptors squad. Toronto has been the underdog five times in the playoffs. They've won three of the games straight up and it should have been four (blown Gm 1 lead vs. Milwaukee). They'll shoot better than 37.2% from the field here (FG% from Game 2), that's for sure. Golden State has been down by double digits in five straight games now. They're the ones who will struggle to score here, not just because they aren't close to 100 percent, but also because the Raptors play great defense. They held Golden State under their season average in Games 1 & 2. There have been only four games this entire postseason run where they've allowed more than 109 points. So taking the points would seem ideal here. Golden State is also 1-7-1 ATS off its last nine straight up victories. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto probably surprised a lot of people by winning Game 1, but not us. They had the home court advantage and with Golden State playing without Kevin Durant, the Warriors were ripe for the picking. Look for the Raptors to continue to ratchet up the defense here as they are giving up less than 97 points/game at home in the playoffs and there have been just eight games total where they've allowed more than 100 points. Game 1 was one of them, but that's to be expected vs. the Warriors. Still, without Durant, Golden State was held below its season average in scoring. They have lost all three games to Toronto this season, two of them taking place in Canada. The Raptors have covered the spread in their last four home games and last five games overall. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE 

The Bucks find themselves facing elimination tonight, which is certainly NOT a position they expected to be in after taking the first two games of the series. But they were a little lucky to win Game #1 remember (outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th Quarter) and definitely lucky to cover. They rolled to a wire-to-wire 125-103 win and cover in Game #2, but then basically never led in either game in Toronto (even though Game #3 went to double overtime). Things figured to return to normal in Game #5, which was back at home, and they did look good early with Milwaukee taking an early 12-point lead. But then it was the Raptors turn to pull off an impressive comeback as they held the Bucks to just 67 points over the last three quarters. After the home team started the series 4-0 SU/ATS, not many are going to expect the road team to win two straight. But we wouldn't make the mistake of giving up on the Bucks, who we still feel are the better team and are also a perfect 9-0 against the spread this season on the road when coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE

The Warriors broke the hearts of the Blazers with a come from behind victory in Game #2 and they may very well have broken their spirit by doing the same in Game #3. Both instances saw the reigning champs battle back from a double digit halftime deficit. Blowing leads like that - in consecutive games - is really tough to battle back from and down 0-3 in a series would seem like the ideal spot to fade such a team as no team in history has come back to win a series down 0-3, so Portland basically knows its season ended Saturday night. Unlike Game #2 (when we cashed the Blazers plus the points), they could not even cover the spread in Game #3, losing by 11 as their poor shooting continued. Assuming Golden State does not fall into yet another early hole, covering the spread here should not be a problem at all. They have incentive to sweep as it will give them more time off before the NBA Finals and maybe Kevin Durant can return for that series. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Portland probably couldn't have played any worse in Game 1. Yet they were only down six going into the fourth quarter. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But Portland obviously wasn't and to make this a series they're going to need to start shooting a lot better than they have recently. They have a field goal percentage of only 41.3 the last five games, including a playoff low 36.1% in Game 1. Three-point shooting in particular is due to improve. History is on the Blazers side as well, at least this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the spread seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Remember that this team won twice in Denver last round and the Nuggets had the league's best home record. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have the home court edge in this series. But history shows they might come out a bit rusty for this one. Coming off similar rest between the first two series, they lost Game 1 to Boston here at home, dropping them to 2-4 ATS this season playing with three or more days rest. They are just 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 games in this situation. With the Raptors allowing less than 100 points/game in the playoffs, our recommendation is to take the points in Game 1. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and we're going to lay the points. It's easy to forget, but the Blazers were down 17 in the first half of their eventual Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday. The Warriors, playing without Kevin Durant, eliminated Houston on Friday. The couple of extra days between series is a nice edge for Golden State as they have to keep going on sans Durant. They've got the edge in rest and home court. We have Houston rated stronger than Portland so this is one of those rare times a team (Golden State) is actually facing a weaker team after advancing. Even though they did win Game 7 in Denver, the Blazers are still only 24-23 SU on the road this season. They are 1-5 ATS following their last 6 straight up victories. They are just 9-22 ATS their last 31 trips into Oakland and that includes a 28-point loss earlier in the season. Play GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Going into each of Denver's two series thus far, we've stated the fact they had the home court advantage would be vital. Once again, we find them hosting a Game 7. The first round series against San Antonio ended with the Nuggets winning 90-86 here at the Pepsi Center. Though they won, it ended up being a terrible beat (we had Denver) as they blew the cover late (were -6.5). It was a game they led wire to wire and were up double digits much of the way. The reason the home court edge has been so crucial in these first two series is not only because Denver has such a dramatic home vs. road split, but so too have each of their opponents. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 39-9 straight up, but are just 22-23 on the road. San Antonio had the second best home record in the league in the regular season, but was just 16-25 on the road. Portland isn't quite as dramatic, but they are 37-10 at home vs. just 23-23 on the road. Denver has lost one home game in each round, but notable is that they have given up 98 points or less four of the last five games here. They'll shoot a lot better today than they did in Game #6 simply because of the return home. Portland has followed up its last five SU wins with an ATS loss. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

We'll look to stay perfect in this series by going with the Rockets in Game #6. Now laying points may not seem like an especially fruitful venture, considering the way this series has gone so far. All five games have been decided by six points or less, however, the home team is 5-0 straight up as well. The Rockets won Game #3 by five points (OT) and Game #4 by four points. But they are this big a favorite for a reason and that reason is Kevin Durant's calf injury, which will almost certainly keep him out of Game #6. No one should ever root for a player to get injured, but Rockets fans have to feel like this is a bit of "poetic justice" considering this is exactly what happened to them with Chris Paul in last year's Western Conference Finals. After losing Paul, the Rockets lost the next two games and the rest is history. Now they'll hope history repeats itself with the Warriors and Durant. This is the most points Golden State has ever gotten under Steve Kerr in the playoffs. Durant was leading the league in scoring in the playoffs at 35.4 points/game, so the loss of him can't be overstated. The Warriors did not look like the same team once he went down. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in this series and 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. But winning here at home should come pretty easy. Our feeling, much like Denver's first round series against San Antonio, is that home court advantage would play an extremely important role in this series. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, but are a below .500 team on the road. The Blazers are 36-10 SU in home games this year, though they did lose Game 4 here. But we should see across the board improvement from Game #5 where they only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Blazers are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on BOSTON

Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVER 

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This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

This is obviously as close to must win as it gets for Houston. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. But lots of teams have won when down 0-2 and they return home. That's the situation for the Rockets here. The good news is James Harden is fine after sustaining an eye injury in Game #2. Despite missing time, Harden still had his best shooting night of any playoff game. It's not as if the Rockets were outclassed in either game at Golden State. Both losses were by just six points. Remember that they took three of four from the Warriors in the regular season and were up three games to two in last year's Western Conference Final. They beat Golden State both times here at home in the regular season. They're also 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 home games. They won the three first round home games by a combined 59 points. The Warriors have failed to cover off any of their last five ATS wins. They are also 1-6 ATS off their last 7 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Coming into this series, we said that home court advantage would play a big role, just like it did in the Nuggets' first round series against the Spurs. There, Denver did drop Game 1 at home, but won its next three at the Pepsi Center and wound up advancing after the series went a full seven games. Despite a quick turnaround between series, Denver was able to beat Portland in Game #1, 121-113. But then they lost Game #2, 97-90, so we're all squared up going back to Portland. Homecourt is still important, but it's difficult to imagine Denver playing any worse than it did in Game #2. They shot jut 34.7% overall and were a hideous 6 of 29 from behind the three-point line. They even missed 10 of 26 free throw attempts. We like them getting points in Game #3 as they have covered five of their last seven trips here and they are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine matchups with Portland, no matter the location. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto and Philadelphia had very similar Round 1 experiences. Both lost their respective Game 1's, on their home floor. But then both bounced back to win the next four games and advance. Toronto did so with defense, holding Orlando to an average of 89 points/game in the four wins. Philadelphia did so more with offense, averaging 127.5 points/game vs. Brooklyn. Through two games, this second round series has more closely resembled Toronto's style of play. The Sixers have failed to score 100 points in either game, though they did take Game 2 in Toronto by a score of 94-89. That was their first win in 15 tries up in Canada. Now we move to the City of Brotherly Love. While the 76ers may now have homecourt advantage, we believe the Raptors are still the better team. Philly is a little banged up in the frontcourt as both Joel Embiid and Mike Scott continue to battle injuries. The Raptors have now allowed fewer than 100 points in six straight games. We expect players such as Danny Green and Marc Gasol to play a lot better than they did in Game 2. Those two combined to make only 2 of 14 field goal attempts and the Raptors bench totaled only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. Should be a much better team effort tonight. Toronto is still on a 14-5 ATS run vs. Philadelphia and the last time they dropped back to back games ATS was late March (10-4 ATS overall since). Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Denver dropped Game 1 of the last series (vs. San Antonio), but we don't see that happening here. Like the Spurs series, home court advantage figures to play a key role here in Round 2 vs. Portland. The Nuggets had the best home record in the league during the regular season and are now 37-8 straight up at the Pepsi Center. The got "backdoored" in Game 7 by San Antonio, winning by only four in a game they were favored to win by 6.5 points. But don't let that unlucky ATS result cloud the fact they led that game by double digits most of the way. Denver plays a lot better defense at home too. They gave up only 86 points in Game 7 after giving up only 90 in Game 5. For the year, they give up just 102.9 points per game at home, which is more than seven points less than what they give up on the road. Portland isn't quite as subpar as San Antonio on the road, but the Blazers record away from home is only 22-21. The Nuggets were 3-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, although every game was close. But the only time they lost to them was in the second game of a home and home, in Portland. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven meetings and they now have a problem in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic is already out for the year and now Enes Kanter is dealing with a separated shoulder. Play on DENVER 

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

It's a familiar matchup on the Western Conference side of the draw, only this year the Rockets and Warriors are playing a round earlier. Last year, the Rockets took the Warriors to the brink of elimination and had a lead at home in Game 7 before wilting. Remember they also didn't have Chris Paul for the final two games of that series. Houston may not have the home court advantage this time around, but they do have Paul back in the lineup and come in as the hotter team. While Golden State surprisingly needed six games to eliminate the Clippers in the first round, the Rockets vanquished the Jazz in just five and are now 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS the past 12 games. One of the two straight up losses was by one point (regular season finale). The Warriors have not been a good team to bet on this season and they are 17-26-1 ATS at home. Taking the points in Game 1 looks to be the way to go.  Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on DENVER 

Historically speaking, home teams enjoy a decided edge in Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (101-27 straight up record in shot-clock era). Look for that trend to continue with our lone Game 7 of this year's 1st round as Denver hosts San Antonio. The Nuggets are off a 17-point loss in Game 6. But before that, they'd won the last two games by a combined 32 points. Only one game in the entire series has been decided by less than nine points and each of the last three have been decided by 14 points or more. Being able to get a Game 7 at home is what Denver worked for in the regular season. They have the best home record in the league at 36-8 straight up and the numbers confirm they are a much better team here. Not only does scoring jump 6.2 points/game from road to home, their number of points allowed drops by 6.8 points/game. San Antonio (17-27 SU) happens to have the worst road record of any playoff team. We look for bench scoring and three-point shooting to be the key edge for the Nuggets in this winner take all game. Lay the points. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

The Nuggets were very fortunate not to be down 3-0 in this series as not only did they drop two of the first three games, but their one win (Game 2) saw them erase a 19-point second half deficit, mostly in the 4th quarter where they outscored the Spurs 39-23. But since falling behind by double digits again, early in Game 4, Denver really seems to have taken control of this series. They've won the last two games by a combined 32 points and now have a shot at closing out the Spurs tonight in Game 6. It is a road game, but the Nuggets have already won once here in San Antonio. Game 5 on Tuesday was definitely Denver's best showing in the series. They led by as many as 30 points. Nikola Jokic is almost averaging a triple double in his first ever playoff series and the Spurs appear to have no answer for him. Denver has pretty clearly been the better of these two teams most of this year. The Spurs are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah stayed alive by winning Game 4, handily. They beat the Rockets 107-91 and that margin of victory should have them confident enough to head into Game #5 with a sense that further extending their season is a possibility. We're not saying the Jazz will win this one, but taking the points is the right way to go. Houston did not shoot the ball well either game in Salt Lake City. They shot 38.4% as a team in Game #3 with James Harden missing his first 15 attempts from the field. Then they shot 35.4% in Game #4, collectively missing their final 13 attempts from three-point range. Yes, the series now shifts back to Houston. But the Jazz are going to compete here a lot more than they did in either Games #1 and #2. This is too many points for Houston to lay to a desperate Utah team. Play on UTAH

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This is an 8* play on OKC

It's probably fair to say that the majority of first round series in the NBA Playoffs have gone "according to script." The way the Rockets handled the Jazz in the first three games of that series was maybe a little surprising. But probably not as surprising to most as the fact that it's Portland up three games to one on Oklahoma City. This was a series where the lower seeded team was actually favored to advance. The Thunder swept the regular season series, winning all four times against the Blazers. Portland also has a key player injured (Jusuf Nurkic). Game 4 is what probably jumped out to most as the Blazers became the first road team to win a game in the series. They held Russell Westbrook without a basket in the second half, which is really stunning. We know that the Thunder have lost the public's trust, but not ours as we like them plus the points facing elimination. Remember they actually closed as the favorite for Game #2 here in Portland, so there's some good value. Play on OKC

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

We also look for Houston to close out Utah Monday night. It's pretty clear that the Jazz are overmatched in this series and Game #3 was basically their "death knell." Losing at home on a night where James Harden shot the ball horribly is not something that can be overcome nor is a 3-0 series deficit. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Rockets have won and covered 9 of the last 10 games. The only loss was by one point to Oklahoma City, which in retrospect was the worst possible thing to happen to the Jazz. That loss caused Houston to drop a spot in the standings, setting up this matchup. Utah would have been a lot better off playing Portland. The Jazz did beat the Rockets in a couple of early season meetings, but have since dropped five straight to them. Like the Pistons, they have shot very poorly in the playoffs (40.1 FG%) and are averaging less than 100 points/game (96.3). We don't even have to lay a big number here like we do with the Bucks. You can bank on Harden having a better shooting night than he did in Game #3. The Rockets look like one of the best teams in the league right now. Play on HOUSTON. 

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

We expect both series to close out tonight, starting in Detroit where the Pistons appear as ill-prepared for the playoffs as any team in recent memory. They have been completely dominated by the Bucks, losing all three games by 16 or more points and there's no reason to believe Game #4 will be any different. Milwaukee is completely superior in every way here and not even the return of Blake Griffin can change that as he's not completely healthy. In the series, the Pistons have been held to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, showing that Milwaukee (the East's highest scoring team) can also play some defense. The Bucks are #1 in defensive efficiency in the league in addition to being #1 overall in scoring. They have outscored the Pistons by 72 points through three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo only scored 14 points Saturday, his fewest in any game since January and the Bucks still won by 16. Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since '08 and that certainly won't change here. Play on MILWAUKEE.

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This is an 8* play on LA CLIPPERS

The Clippers have trailed big in all three games so they should feel lucky to only be down 2-1 in the series. Game 2 saw them pull off the greatest comeback in NBA Playoff history, at least in terms of margin overcome (31 points). But they were never really in Game #3. Golden State led by 17 after one quarter and was up 33 entering the fourth. The Warriors have enjoyed a lead of at least 19 points in all three games. But Game #4 should be different. The Clippers shot poorly in Game #3, especially from deep where they went 7 of 32. They shot 37.2% overall, which won't cut it against the Warriors. That's surprising too as LA has been a strong home team all season. Golden State was obviously motivated going into Game #3 after blowing the 31-point lead in Game #2. Will that same motivation be present today? The Warriors are 4-10 ATS off a their previous 14 ATS victories. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* play on BOSTON

We look for Boston to finish off the sweep Sunday. It's pretty clear to us at this point that Indiana just can't get consistent scoring nor can they beat Boston. It's not just this series you see. There were also two meetings late in the regular season where the Celtics dominated. Four of the five losses have seen the Pacers held under 100 points. Now they have held the halftime lead in two of the three games in this series and only trailed by two in the other. But they are averaging only 35 points in the second half and that will obviously not cut the mustard. Indiana has only won 4 of its last 12 games overall, so in a way you could see this early playoff flameout coming. In the regular season, it was the defense that was costing the Pacers down the stretch. They allowed 11 of their last 13 opponents to score at least 102 points. Now its the offense that is averaging only 87 points per game in the playoffs/ The Celtics underachieved in the regular season, but are clearly hitting their stride now. Play on BOSTON

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This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio very easily - and probably should - be up 2-0 in this series. After a superb defensive effort allowed them to take Game 1, the Spurs were up by 19 in Game 2 and appeared well on their way to taking both games in Denver. But then Jamal Murray went off for the Nuggets, scoring 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter (had started the game 0 for 8). The Nuggets outscored the Spurs 39-23 in the 4th and now we head back to San Antonio tied at one game apiece. While having the league's best home record, Denver is below .500 on the road. San Antonio's home vs. road split is even more pronounced. They should actually be thrilled to have earned a split in Denver, given a 16-25 SU road record. At home they are 32-9 and shoot 41.9% from three-point range. Defensively, the Spurs have made major strides the last couple months. Before the 4th quarter happened Tuesday, it looked like they might hold Denver under 100 pts in two straight games. Going back to 2012, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight here in San Antonio. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

The Pistons appeared ill-prepared for their 1st postseason game since 2016. Playing without Blake Griffin, they were no match for top seed Milwaukee, who thumped them 121 to 86 as 15-point favorites. Detroit last won a playoff game in 2008. If they continue to play the way they did Sunday, that streak will continue into next year. It's not a shocker to see the number at where it is for Game 2. Few will give the Pistons a shot Wednesday, let alone the rest of the series. They've played the Bucks five times this year and five times they have lost, four of those coming by 10 or more points. The three games in Milwaukee have seen them lose by 35, 23 and 23 points. But as the Clippers showed Monday, anything is possible in the playoffs. After a blowout loss is often the best time to bet on a team (zig zag theory!) and while we don't see Detroit winning Game 2, we do expect them to cover. While Griffin seems unlikely to play, Andre Drummond won't be ejected again like he was in Game 1. Generally speaking, this is too many points to lay in the playoffs and the Pistons will play better this time. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto's atrocious history in Game 1's continued with a shocking 104-101 loss to Orlando on Saturday. With that result, the Raptors are now 2-13 SU all-time in Game 1's, including 1-10 in Round 1. Kyle Lowry pulled another playoff "disappearing act," in being held SCORELESS for the game on 0 for 7 shooting (all but one attempt was a three-pointer). But that's all water under the bridge now and history suggests the Raptors bounce back Tuesday in Game 2. Outside of series against LeBron James' Cleveland teams, Toronto has won four straight Game 2s. All four were played at home. Lowry has his own personal history of following terrible playoff performances with a good one. The Raptors actually outshot the Magic overall in Game 1, but were worse from behind the arc and at the free throw line. You can't deny that Orlando has been "better than advertised" in the second half of the season, however, they got their road win. The zig zag theory isn't perfect, but I'll side with Toronto here. Remember they have Kawhi Leonard this year. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

Forget about the talk about cell phones, Philadelphia was flat out embarrassed on its home court in Game 1, losing to the Nets 111-102. Aside from early in the 1st quarter, the Sixers never led and were down by as many 17. They should bounce back for Game 2. They certainly aren't likely to miss 22 of 25 three-pointers again like they did Saturday. Joel Embiid's knee remains a question mark, but it's hard not to like the Sixers in this spot considering a 31-11 SU home record and they are 31-15 ATS L46 here against teams that have losing road records. Brooklyn is still only 20-22 straight up on the road this year and is probably "content" having taken Game 1. The Nets got 59 points from their bench in Game 1. Similar to Philly's woeful three-point shooting, that is unlikely to be repeated tonight. The 76ers are still the better team and should win comfortably at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

Houston ended up finishing fourth in the Western Conference, but this was one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. They'd won and covered six in a row before losing by one to Oklahoma City in the final regular season game. That one loss is what dropped them from third to fourth and while it means playing a gritty Utah team, the Rockets simply have too much talent to falter here. No team was better in the second half of the season. They went 20-5 posting the best net efficiency rating (+10.7) as they were second overall in both offensive and defensive efficiency. James Harden leads all players in scoring with a 36.1 points per game average this season. Remember the Rockets eliminated the Jazz from last year's playoffs, winning in just five games. The four wins were all of the double digit variety and came by an average of 14.5 points per game. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

The Lakers are 2-1 against the Blazers, but that's with LeBron James playing all three games. The King was officially shutdown for the year last week and his teammates packed it long before that. Though they've won two straight, beating the Clippers by five and Jazz by four, the Lakers have been a terrible team to bet on this season. Only the Knicks have a worse ATS mark. Four would-be starters, including James, aren't playing anymore. Without Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers are a little shorthanded as well, but they just got back C.J. McCollum and will be looking to clinch homecourt advantage for the first round of the playoffs tonight. All they need is a win. While covering the spread might seem like more of a challenge, Portland is 10-2 ATS its last 12 road games against teams that give up 110 or more points per game. They win big tonight. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

This line has already risen quite dramatically, but we're still anticipating a big Portland win. This is the second leg of a home and home between the Blazers and Nuggets. Denver won at home, 119-110, on Friday as Portland was short-handed. They played without Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Seth Curry. Damian Lillard was held to 14 points on 3 of 14 shooting. Even without the some of those key players still, the Blazers should bounce back at home. Denver could rest some of its starters, which is why the line is on the move. Portland is also 30-9 at home this season and hoping to avoid what would be a season sweep by the Nuggets. The first three games have all been decided by single digits with two of them by a total of 4 points. So it's not as if Portland hasn't been competitive. They need a strong finish to the regular season to clinch home court advantage for the opening round of the playoffs. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on MIAMI

It's unusual to say, but Miami is probably glad that this very crucial game is taking place on the road. After dropping a decision at home to Boston two nights ago, the Heat's home record fell to 18-22 straight up and 15-23-2 against the spread. On the road, they are 20-18 SU and 23-15 ATS. You don't see a team with a better record on the road than at home very often, but this is definitely an instance of that. The Heat come into this game a 1/2 game back of both Brooklyn and Orlando. They need to pass at least one of those two teams to get into the playoffs. Minnesota should provide them such an opportunity. The Timberwolves already know when their season will end and that's a week from now in Denver, the final game of the regular season. For the 13th time in 14 years, they aren't going to the playoffs. They did win Wednesday night at Dallas, but have put together back to back wins just one time since the All Star Break. That came in a pair of home games against Washington and New York, two very bad teams. Miami has to have this one and they'll get it. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio is in 8th place in the Western Conference, which would mean a first round series against Golden State. No team wants to be the first to draw the Warriors, so expect the Spurs to do everything they can to move up. That starts with winning this game in Washington against a Wizards team that is just playing out the string. It is likely the Wizards will finish this season with their lowest win total since 2012-13. They just lost here at home to Chicago after blowing an eight-point fourth quarter lead. That's demoralizing. As for San Antonio's motivation, they will have plenty. Greg Popovich was tossed 63 seconds into an eventual 113-85 loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Expect him and his team to respond like you might think. The Spurs shoot a league-best 39.2% from three-point range, so they should bury a Wizards team that is among the very worst in the league defensively. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

The four-team race for the last three spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (will be one team left out) is really heating up. Orlando has one fewer game remaining than Detroit, Brooklyn and Miami, which is a problem considering they are the ones currently on the "outside looking in." All four teams lost on Monday after all four had won on Saturday. So that means no ground was made up by the Magic and they still trail the Heat by a half game with only four left to play. But they have a golden opportunity to make up some ground Wednesday when they host the league-worst Knicks. (The three teams Orlando is chasing also play at home tonight, but against top five teams from the East). We look for Orlando to win big here. New York is off a rare win on Monday, which will make them prone to a letdown. There's no point for the Knicks to keep winning at this point and risk harming their draft position. This is obviously a lot of points to lay with a Magic team that's not normally this large of a favorite. But not only have they won seven straight home games, four of the last five wins have been by double digits and the last one was by 21 over Philadelphia. The Magic also have revenge for a five-point loss at the Garden back in February. Play on ORLANDO

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

Since making an early season statement at Golden State's expense, Denver has not fared well in two subsequent meetings. They lost at home 142-111 in January and then 122-105 out in Oakland last month. The Nuggets 1-2 YTD record against the Warriors is the difference in the standings right now as GSW comes in one game ahead in the race for the #1 seed. Denver suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to Washington in its last game as they were held to only 90 points total and 28 in the second half. Whether or not that was looking ahead to this game we don't know, but look for a much better performance tonight. Will Denver win? Not sure. But they can definitely stay well within this generous number set by the oddsmakers. Golden State has a poor ATS record overall this season (32-43-1) and especially at home (14-23-1). We're not sure what it is about Tuesday, but the Warriors are 3-19 ATS at home on Tuesday nights the past three seasons. They've lost four of their last eight home games outright. Take the points tonight. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Portland made us look a little foolish last night by beating Atlanta by 20 points. We totally overestimated the Hawks in that situation, which with the benefit of hindsight seems like a bad idea all around. But after beating Chicago and Atlanta, the Blazers now step up to face Detroit. Unlike those last two Portland opponents, the Pistons are trying to make the playoffs. They're 6th in the East, but the margin for error is still slim. Portland finds itself playing its third road game in four days, without Jusuf Nurkic. Again, Nurkic's absence turned out not to be a big deal against the Bulls and Hawks. But Detroit will make Portland pay. The Pistons have covered five straight and just beat Orlando by 17 in an impressive win two nights ago. The Blazers are 1-6 SU/ATS in the second of back to back road games this year. Not only does Portland not have Nurkic the rest of the season, C.J. McCollum is out of the lineup as well. This team is severely shorthanded, not rested and on the road. That's a lousy combination when facing a better than average opponent. Detroit is 24-13 in home games where they see a dramatic increase on the offensive end.  Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

The Hawks are a live dog in this situation as Portland is still adjusting to life without Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps inspired by their injured teammate, the Blazers did win two nights ago by a score of 118-98. But that was against a terrible Chicago team. Nurkic isn't coming back as he suffered a horrible season-ending leg injury in Monday's double overtime victory against Brooklyn. His absence wasn't felt against the Bulls, but will be here in Atlanta. It's been a trying week with a double overtime game, never mind also losing arguably their best player not named Damian Lillard. Nurkic's replacement, Enes Kanter, is a major liability on the defensive end for a team that is already the weakest of the eight Western Conference playoff teams on that end of the floor. The Blazers road record this season is only 18-18 SU, a far cry from their 29-9 SU mark at home. By the way, Atlanta has quietly won three straight games. Two of those wins were against Philly and Utah. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine games overall. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

Denver is off an embarrassing loss as Indiana as they went down 124-88 in one of their uglier performances all year. Such a lousy effort was ill-timed with them currently locked into a tight battle with Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Right now, the Nuggets trail the Warriors by one-half game, so a win tonight would square things up with only nine games left in the regular season. Motivation should not be an issue here at home where the Nuggets are 30-6 SU, 23-13 ATS and winning by an average of almost 11 points per game. They've got revenge on the mind tonight as well due to having lost in Detroit (by 26!) early in February. This season has seen Denver go a perfect 9-0 against the number at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they were a road favorite. Even though they're a likely playoff team in the East, the Pistons have been quite shaky on the road where their record for the season is only 14-23. They've lost five of their last six games away from home, including some real wretched efforts, and the one win was against Phoenix. The Mile High City is one of the LAST places in the league they're likely to turn that around. Play on DENVER 

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This is an 8* play on the CLIPPERS

The Clippers are hot right now. They've won 10 of their last 11 and five straight. Tonight, they'll hope to avoid what happened the last time they were on a five-game win streak and that's lose. That last loss occurred at home against Portland, but tonight they'll be facing much weaker competition in the form of Minnesota. Even though this is a road game, Los Angeles still should roll considering they have a lot to play for and the Timberwolves do not. Minny was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, an appropriate result for such a disappointing season. They'd lost five in a row before winning at Memphis on Saturday. While the Timberwolves have a 23-11 record at home, we just don't see them getting the cash tonight. Not with trends favoring the road team, such as the Clippers 11-4-1 ATS mark their past 16 trips to Minneapolis. That's part of a larger 20-8-1 ATS run by the road team in the series and the favorite has cashed four of the last five times they've played. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* play on ATLANTA

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season when they're playing on the road and off a win at home. They just beat Philadelphia, 129-127, at home on Saturday. They pulled the upset (were +7) thanks to Trae Young's game winner in the final seconds. It was Atlanta's second straight win over a playoff team as they also beat Utah (at home) last week. Now they're on the road, but they get a break - some would say a big one - as New Orleans looks to have totally given up on the season. Looking back, the Anthony Davis trade request definitely sunk this team's season, which is too bad as they were a playoff contender before Davis made his feelings known. Now the Pelicans have lost eight of nine, one of the games coming against the Hawks on March 10 when they lost 126-118. Defense has been almost non-existent for New Orleans, who is giving up an incredible number of points lately. Those last nine games have seen them allow: 114, 127, 128, 130, 122, 138, 125, 119 and 113 points. It hasn't helped that in the last two games they've been held to 96 and 90 themselves. Atlanta will want this one more. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Portland scratched out a cover for us on Saturday, beating Detroit by five (were laying -4.5). It's a slightly larger spread tonight against Brooklyn, but that should be the case even though the Nets have covered three in a row. One of those games was a loss (at LAC) and then the Nets pulled out two close wins against Sacramento and the Lakers. One of those games (Sacramento), they trailed by 25 in the fourth quarter. Tonight will be their sixth straight road game, a trip which started 12 days ago in Oklahoma City. Portland has won six of seven with three straight wins coming at home. The Blazers are a very good bet at home considering they're 39-19-1 ATS the last 59 times playing here. They've already won in Brooklyn, by double digits, last month. They are 28-9 SU here this season, winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game and most of those games come against Western Conference teams. Brooklyn being a likely playoff team is simply a byproduct of playing in the weak Eastern Conference. The Nets are 21-4 straight game in games where they are favored, but only 17-32 when they are the underdog. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Washington was going to be in a tough spot here, regardless of last night's outcome. But losing 126-120 in overtime at Chicago was probably Wednesday's least ideal outcome. After Bradley Beal tied the game in the closing seconds of regulation, the Wizards went 0 for 6 from the field in OT. It was their third loss in four games and this one really stung considering how bad the Bulls are and that they were without two of their top players. Now Washington has to deal with Denver, one of the top teams in the league. Sure this one is at home, but the Wizards are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games vs. teams with winning records. The Nuggets come in having won four in a row. They just took care of the Celtics, in Boston, and now trail Golden State by just one-half game for first place in the Western Conference. They've also been off for the last two days. This is probably one of the worst possible opponents for the Nuggets tonight, home or not. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

The Wizards are still technically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but on life support. To remain viable, they must win tonight in Chicago. Fortunately, the task should not be that difficult against a Bulls team that is just 8-27 at home and getting consistently hammered. The Bulls did win their last time out, beating Phoenix 116-101 on the road. But before that it was five straight losses, three of them by 16 or more points. The last time these teams played was here in the Windy City and Washington won 134-125 with a similar pointspread. It's a but suspicious as to why the oddsmakers wouldn't have adjusted. At least a little bit. Since that time, the Wizards are just 1-6 on the road and they just lost 116-95 at home to Utah. But they'd also gone 7-1 ATS in the eight games prior to getting blown out by the Jazz. This is a game the Wizards should win with ease. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* play on ORLANDO

Orlando needs to take advantage here of a New Orleans team that has basically thrown in the towel on the 2018-19 season. Anthony Davis has been relegated to limited minutes in the wake of his highly publicized trade demand and the team's fortunes essentially sunk right after those demands were made. The Pelicans are officially eliminated from playoff contention in the Western Conference as they've fallen to 11 games below .500. Defense is non-existent here with them allowing 116.1 points per game, which is tied for the most in the West. They've allowed 122 or more points in six straight games. Orlando has held its last two opponents under 100 and its last four all to 105 or less. This will be the Magic's third straight game at home vs. a non-playoff team. They've won the previous two by double digits. The Magic are 7-2 ATS their last nine home games. Play on ORLANDO

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This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO

One of these teams (Brooklyn) will likely make the playoffs while the other (Sacramento) will not. But a pretty strong case can be made that the non-playoff team is better and the respective designations are simply a byproduct of the two uneven conferences. Sacramento, despite having little shot at making the playoffs, is in a good spot here. They've covered three straight, including a 129-102 win over the Bulls on Sunday. Shockingly, the Kings have been an outstanding bet when favored this season, going 15-4 ATS (17-2 SU). They are favored here to beat a Brooklyn team that seems to have hit a wall. A seven-game road trip has opened with three straight losses as the Nets have fallen to 11-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. Like Sacramento, the Nets typically take care of business when they're favored. They've been favored 24 times and won 20 of those games. But as an underdog, they're just 16-32 SU. With it being a short number, we'll lay it!  Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* play on UTAH

Utah comes to Washington D.C. in search of a win and should get it at the expense of the struggling Wizards. The Jazz have won and covered each of their last three games. While all three games were against lesser opponents, they did win by double digits every time. All three wins were by at least 16 points, including a wire to wire beatdown of Brooklyn on Saturday. Washington has actually gone 7-1 ATS its last eight games and just put up 135 points in a surprising performance against Memphis two days ago. But it's been a long time since they were able to beat the Jazz. The last five meetings have all gone Utah's way and this one will too, by a rather comfortable margin, considering how poor the Wizards are defensively. Utah has covered 7 of its last 9 games vs. teams with losing records. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE

Miami really let one slip away Friday night. They were facing Milwaukee and up by 20 points at halftime. This was at home too. The Bucks were 1-100 SU all-time when trailing by 20+ at the half, including 0-77 on the road. The Heat were 51-0 SU all-time when leading by that much at half, here at home. Guess what? They lost 113-98, becoming the 1st team in league history to be up 20 at the half and still lose by 15. It's going to be very difficult to get over that loss. Now in comes Charlotte, who directly gained from the Heat's pain. Also on Friday, Charlotte beat Washington to pull within one game of Miami, who holds the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have some revenge on the mind Sunday as they just lost at home to Miami, 91-84, on March 6th. It's important to note that the Heat actually play worse at home (where they have a losing SU record) as opposed to the road. They are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 games at home. They are 2-9 ATS their previous 11 division games. We say to take the points here. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS

Memphis is catching points and catching Washington in the second game of a back to back tonight. That's a combo that works in their favor. The Wizards lost last night, falling 116-110 to Charlotte right here at home. Bradley Beal scored 40 points, but the Wizards were down 14 at the end of the first quarter and 17 heading into the fourth. Memphis is rested as they've been off for two days and likely motivated considering they were torched for 132 points by Atlanta of all teams in their last game. Going into that game, the Grizzlies were #1 in the league in scoring defense. It was the most points they allowed in any game all year. A bounce back seems likely given the way they had been playing. Memphis is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS this month with wins over both Portland and Utah. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

On Monday, the Pistons chose a poor time to turn in their worst effort in months. They were dominated from start to finish by the Nets in a 103-75 loss. That cost them sixth place in the Eastern Conference, perhaps a meaningless distinction, but beating the teams you're competing with for playoff positioning is important this time of year. It's a similar matchup for Wednesday as the Pistons travel to Miami. The Heat are in 8th place right now, three games back of the Pistons.  But that precious "breathing room" isn't something Detroit wants to be conceding right now. The good news is the Pistons haven't dropped back to back games since the All Star Break. They've gone 12-3 SU the last 15 games and the last time they were off a loss, they responded with a 129-93 win, on the road no less. Miami has actually played worse at home this year (15-19 SU) than on the road (16-16) and just gave up 125 points on almost 57% shooting Sunday to Toronto. So Detroit should shoot a lot better here than they did vs. Brooklyn, a game they finished 27% from the field. The previous three games all saw them shoot better than 53.5%. The Pistons are the better team here. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on INDIANA

It certainly looks like it will be a tough three-way fight for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference between Indiana, Philadelphia and Boston. Getting that #3 seed is crucial, not only for the home court advantage in the 1st round of playoffs, but it also allows that team to avoid playing either of the other two teams in question. Indiana has done itself no favors by losing its last two games, but they have a certified "layup" tonight when they host the league-worst Knicks. The two games that the Pacers just lost both came on the road and were against Milwaukee and Philadelphia. At home, this team is 25-9 SU and holding opponents to almost 100 PPG (100.1 to be exact). I expect the Pacers offense to be MUCH better tonight than it was against the Bucks and Sixers, who both held them under 100 points. The Knicks are atrocious defensively as they give up 114.5 PPG on the road. After winning three of four surrounding the All Star Break, New York has reverted to its losing ways by dropping six straight games. They've been held below 100 in three straight and those games were against teams that aren't even good defensively. The three teams (Suns, Kings, Timberwolves) all actually rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The Knicks have lost 38 of their last 43 games. Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

Both of these teams are trying to get into the playoffs, which (even in the Eastern Conference) would be considered a significant achievement. The Pistons have made the playoffs only once (2016) in the last decade and have not won a playoff series since their run of six straight Eastern Conference Finals, which ended in '08. The Nets have missed the playoffs 8 of the last 11 years including each of the last three. So the fact both might make it makes this an important game. Detroit is simply playing better right now. Their 131-108 win over the Bulls yesterday puts them an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS in March and 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) their last 14 games overall. Brooklyn has won three straight, but had won only 5 of its previous 15 games before that. They are also 1-4 ATS so far this month. You might think that the Pistons are at a bit of a disadvantage playing in the second game of a back to back, but it was an early game Sunday and an easy victory. The Pistons are 6-3 ATS playing without rest anyway and averaging 123 PPG in March on 52.5% shooting. They are a tough team to beat right now. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

Orlando is trying to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is an achievable goal as they are just one game back of eighth place Miami. If they were to accomplish the goal, it would be the first time in the playoffs for the Magic since the Dwight Howard era, which ended back in 2012. That's a serious drought, so while we can talk about how depth shy the East is this year, that hardly matters to the Magic. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs out West and if there was any thought that they might make a late run, that's been killed by them winning just once in the last nine games. Recently, they've taken some very terrible losses, one by 30 at home to Memphis and another by 39 at Brooklyn. The Mavs only have six road wins all year, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. Orlando has dropped two in a row, but both games were on the road. Tonight is their only home game for the first 13 days of March, so they should play well. Don't be afraid to lay the points as they are in a good spot here. Play on ORLANDO

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This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO

Expect the narrative of "BOSTON IS BACK" to start flying after the Celtics just handed Golden State its worst home loss EVER (33 points) under Steve Kerr. But with a quick turnaround, against a Sacramento team that has been a major surprised, the good times may not last long. Let's not forget the Celtics had lost five of six since the All Star Break prior to last night's shocking triumph out in Oakland. The Kings have the league's 2nd best ATS record at 37-26 and that includes a 22-11 mark at home. The fact that they're no longer favored (line jumped the fence after Boston won last night) is a little disappointing based on the fact they are 15-2 SU/13-4 ATS as chalk. The Kings did a good job defensively in their last game. Granted, it was the Knicks, but Boston is only 3-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back and they average just 105 PPG. Play on SACRAMENTO  

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This is an 8* play on CHICAGO

This is the second night of a back to back for both teams. Philly won last night, beating Orlando 114-106, while Chicago lost 105-96 to Indiana. Those results are pretty "par for the course" for the respective seasons the two teams are having, but we like the Bulls getting points at home tonight. The 76ers are nowhere near as strong on the road (16-14) as they are at home (25-9) and laying points on the road can certainly be tricky. Joel Embiid is still absent from the Philly lineup, leaving them very thin in the frontcourt. They were lucky to have a strong 1st half last night vs. Orlando (scored 70 pts) as they only scored 44 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Chicago had the lead with just over seven minutes to go last night in Indiana before wilting down the stretch. They'd also won five of their previous seven games. An upset here is a real possibility. Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

Though they did beat Oklahoma City last night, this is going to be a really tough spot for Minnesota here. That was a home game vs. the Thunder and now it's back on the road where they've lost three in a row and are just 9-24 this season. Detroit has really started to gain some steam, winning 9 of its last 11, and both losses took place on the road. All things considered, laying a short number like this seems to be a "no-brainer." The Pistons have had two days off to prepare and just beat the Raptors. Making that win even more impressive is the fact they were playing the second night of a back to back. The Timberwolves are just 2-7 SU in that scenario this season with all seven losses taking place out on the road. The T'wolves are terrible defensively and the Pistons have not lost a home game since Feb 2. This is a big game for Detroit as a win gets them above .500 for the first time since Dec 19. Play on DETROIT

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

We won by taking the Rockets Sunday in Boston and now they head up to Canada to face another Eastern Conference power, that obviously being the Raptors. Boston's recent struggles made them an easy fade against a Houston squad that has clearly found its stride during a five game win streak. Beating a better Toronto team may prove more difficult, but given the ease with which the Rockets downed the Celtics (won by 11 and it wasn't even really that close), simply winning here would not be that "big of a deal." The Rockets are now 19-9 SU when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella are all in the starting lineup. That threesome being on the floor together was crucial in the Rockets finishing last season with the best record in the regular season. Toronto just lost to Detroit over the weekend. There was no Kawhi Leonard in that game, but him being back tonight won't be enough to get by this red hot Houston team. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO

Denver is off a couple of head scratching defeats, both at home no less. One was to Utah, which would seem like not that big of a deal, but the Jazz were playing short-handed in that game. But more puzzling was the Nuggets losing to the Pelicans on Saturday, as 12.5-point favorites, game where they didn't even have to face Anthony Davis. I said to take New Orleans plus the points in that one and even I was surprised at the final result, especially considering NO trailed by as many as 19 at one point. Now the Nuggets must to go to San Antonio where the Spurs have won back to back games. They beat a hot Detroit team and a very good Oklahoma City team, both at home, in those last two games. This win streak comes on the heels of the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" which went very poorly vs. the Spurs this year (1-7 SU and ATS). The Spurs have now won six straight home games. These teams split a home and home back in late December with the home team winning both games. Look for that trend to continue here. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

The Celtics remain a clear fade for us as even when they won Friday night vs. Washington, they still trailed in the second half. That win came on the heels of a four-game losing streak to start the 2nd half of the season. We'd just played against them Wednesday when they lost at home to Portland. It's a similar setup Sunday as they welcome in a Houston team that has won four in a row. Boston couldn't beat the Blazers (who were on a similar win streak) and it's tough seeing them beating the Rockets either. In the five games since All Star Weekend concluded, the Celtics are averaging only 101.4 points per game and have been held under the century mark three times. Houston has averaged 116.4 points per game since the break, topping 118 each of the last four games. The Rockets were short-handed for their last game, but still found a way to win on the road despite trailing Miami by as much as 21 points in the second half. James Harden scored 58 points in the come from behind win. Houston won the season's first meeting 127-113 and you should  expect a similar type score today. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* play on New Orleans

When looking at this line, you probably could have guessed that Anthony Davis will be sitting out for the Pelicans. You would be correct as the team played last night - and won - beating Phoenix 130-116. But given what a distraction Davis has become, maybe his absence isn't all that it's "cracked up to be?" The Pelicans shot the ball ridiculously well Friday night, especially from three-point range. It won't be that easy tonight in Denver, but they're also now getting a boatload of points. The Nuggets suffered a rare home defeat at the hands of Utah (who was short-handed) on Thursday, snapping a nine-game win streak here. Maybe the situation isn't all that ideal for New Orleans, but the pointspread is far too generous for a team that has covered 10 of its last 14 games. New Orleans usually scores a lot, whether Davis is in the lineup or not, and that makes covering against them as double digit chalk problematic to say the least. Play on NEW ORLEANS 

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This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA CITY 

Oklahoma City has not covered any of its last four contests. The most recent one was a 121-112 loss at Denver. The previous three all saw them fail to cover as a favorite. The only SU win in this stretch was a double overtime game vs. Utah. Today, they'll host a Philadelphia team that has had its own problems since returning from All Star Weekend. The Sixers have won two of the games, but barely as they beat Miami by four and New Orleans by only one. Depending when one bet that New Orleans game, it could have been a win or loss. Using the closing line of Sixers -2.5, it would be the third straight ATS loss for the team. I think some may be surprised over the size of this line, but remember Philly still doesn't have Joel Embiid. With a healthy Embiid in the lineup, they lost to the Thunder last month. They also won't have Boban Marjanovic in the lineup tonight. But perhaps more pertinent of all here is the Thunder's 19-game win streak over the Sixers, which is the longest active streak by one team over another in the league. Philly has beaten OKC just one time since the move from Seattle -- in 2008. Love the Thunder here as they are due to break out. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is an 8* play on Portland

I think its pretty apparent that Boston has a lot of problems going on right now. Last night, they were handed their worst defeat of the season, by Toronto, 118-95. They have little time to sulk as tonight they return home to face the red-hot Blazers. The Celtics are now 0-3 since the break and rapidly running out of excuses. Now all three losses did take place on the road. But Portland has had no such difficulty winning on the road, going 3-0 there since the break. It's a four-game win streak overall for the Blazers, who have also covered the spread in all four games. The latest win came in Cleveland Monday night by a score of 123-110. When coming off a double digit victory this season, Portland has gone 16-5 ATS in its next game. Given the recent form of the two teams here, I don't know how one can make a case for Boston, who is also 3-6 ATS playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS

I've bet against Philadelphia each of their last two games and gone 2-0 ATS. They barely got by Miami, winning by just four points at home. Then they got blown out by Portland, also at home. Now they take their act on the road and one player that won't be making the trek to the Big Easy is Joel Embiid. Embiid has missed those last two games, so that helps explain the slide. But giving up 130 points to the Blazers was definitely not a good look, Embiid or no Embiid. New Orleans just beat the Lakers Saturday night and did so with Anthony Davis not even suiting up. Davis should play tonight and he'd join seven teammates that were in double figures vs. LA, a 128-point effort that included the Pelicans highest scoring 1st quarter (43 points) all season. The Pelicans have an 18-11 record at home and thus looking like a strong play on the Monday card. Philly has gotten to play six out of its last seven games at home with the one road game coming against the Knicks. Their record is only .500 (14-14 SU) on the road. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Initially, things weren't looking so good for Indiana without Victor Oladipo. They lost the first four games after it was announced their leading scorer was done for the year with a knee injury. But since then, the Pacers are 8-1 with the only loss coming to the team with the league's best record, Milwaukee. They've gone 7-2 ATS in those games. But on Monday, it appears as if they'll have to overcome more injuries with Myles Turner and Tyreke Evans still on the questionable list. They'll also have to overcome a Detroit team that is starting to build some of its own momentum after winning five out of its last six. That win streak has the Pistons in the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. They just went on the road and whipped Miami by 23 points. Tonight is a big revenge game in the Motor City as the Pistons lost to the Pacers by 37 back in December. Indiana is only 1-4 ATS on the division road and I think they are poised to lose another tonight. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is actually favored here as they are coming off a win and Memphis is off a loss, last night, to the Clippers. While the idea of the Cavs laying points may scare off some, I think the situation calls for it as their opponents are both unrested and incredibly short-handed. Going on the road in the second night of a back to back is bad enough for a slumping Memphis team, but doing so without Jaren Jackson Jr, who was the #4 pick in last year's draft, makes things even tougher. The Grizzlies have lost 15 of their last 19 games anyway and are 9-21 SU on the road. The fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead last night makes this even tougher. Cleveland played one of its better games of the season Thursday night, beating Phoenix 111-98 and they led comfortably most of the way. Kevin Love is now back, so the Cavs aren't as bad as they look on paper. Memphis is 2-6 SU and ATS in the second game of a back to back this year. Play on CLEVELAND 

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Despite an off-night from leading scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers were still able to go on the road and beat Brooklyn - handily - Thursday night, winning by a final score of 113-99. They were just three-point favorites. One has to imagine Lillard will play better here, even if it is against a tougher opponent. He shot just 5 of 21 against the Nets. This is a 26.0 PPG scorer mind you, now backed by Enes Kanter, who contributed 18 pts and nine rebounds in his Blazers debut. As for Philly, they struggled to beat the Heat here Thursday night as they were without Joel Embiid. It looks like they'll be without their starting center for at least a week, so those struggles could continue even with a strong-looking roster. They trailed Miami going into the fourth quarter and with as little as 1:56 to go. While a late surge got them the win, the Sixers still failed to cover, which was good as I bet against them. I'll do the same again here knowing that Portland crushed them earlier this year by 34, another game where the Sixers didn't have Embiid. Philly is a season-best 17 games over .500 right now and likely to drop a game or two. The Blazers are 14-5 ATS coming off a double digit win. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE

Charlotte starts the 2nd half of their season with a key division home game vs. Washington. The Hornets, unlike the Wizards, are likely playoff bound this year thanks to a watered down Eastern Conference. But just because the East is so watered down doesn't mean the Hornets should take a playoff berth for granted. They lost four of five going into All Star Weekend, but now return home where they are a very strong 19-9 SU while averaging 113.3 PPG. Though the loss took place a while ago, there is revenge in play here with the Wizards, who beat the Hornets 130-126 back on December 29th. But that was in D.C. and back when Washington still had John Wall in the lineup (Wall is done for the year). The Wiz are a really lousy road team (8-23 SU) and road games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring have REALLY been their undoing. The team's ATS record in away games with a total of at least 230 pts is 0-6-1 and they've lost all seven straight up. Charlotte is 1-9 SU in games where Tony Parker doesn't play, but he's expected back in the lineup for tonight. Cody Zeller is also now healthy. I look for the Hornets to roll in their first game since the break. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI

I'll be playing both the side and total in this Miami-Philly game. For the side, I'm taking the Heat plus the points. They'll be getting both Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr back in the rotation tonight. This is great news, particularly with Dragic, who is their starting point guard. To me, this is too many points for Philly to be laying in the first game after a long layoff. It's a situation that's conducive to suffering an upset. I know the 76ers look strong on paper, but Joel Embiid isn't playing tonight. He's going to miss the next week due to a knee injury. I know it's been awhile since they last played, but the Sixers are just 5-12 ATS off a double digit win. Before the All Star Break, they beat the Knicks by 15. Miami won at Dallas right before the Break and Dallas is a good home team. They can win here as well. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

The Knicks are setting a new benchmark for futility. They lost again last night, 126-111 to Philadelphia. That makes it 18 in a row. Since November 25th, they have lost 33 of 36 games. Two of their three wins were games that went to overtime (both two point wins) and the other was against the Lakers without LeBron. Playing in the second night of a back to back, right before going on break, I don't see the Knicks turning things around here. Yes, they've beaten Atlanta twice this year. But that'll have the Hawks extra motivated tonight. The Hawks picked up a nice win Tuesday against the Lakers (who had LeBron). This should not be a hard game for them. It's a rare spot where they're favored tonight, but it's certainly an ideal opponent. The Knicks will put up no resistance as they are 1-9 SU on no rest this year, losing by an average of 11 PPG. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* play on INDIANA

Indiana continues to surprise despite being without Victor Oladipo. Monday saw them win for a sixth straight time, 99-99 over Charlotte. They got off to a fast start in that one and were able to hold on after jumping out to 16-point halftime lead. They're 5-1 ATS during the six-game win streak and getting points tonight against Milwaukee. The Bucks, who continue to lead the Eastern Conference, have been equally as hot - if not hotter. They've won and covered seven of their last eight, including an easy one in Chicago Monday night. But this has all the makings of an "upset" with the Pacers already being 4-1 SU/ATS in the home dog role this season. It's pretty clear to me that this team isn't being given the proper credit right now due to the Oladipo injury. But the rest of the team has more than picked up the slack. This is a strong defensive group and the last time they hosted Milwaukee, the result was a 113-97 win with only 12 points from Oladipo. Indiana is 22-7 SU at home and a great value here getting points. Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* Play on Philadelphia 

Kyrie Irving won't play tonight for Boston and that means big trouble for the Celtics going up against a 76ers team that has really begun to hit its stride. I took Philly Sunday, laying a similar number to the Lakers. They won 143-120, easily covering the number. I expect the same here. With Tobias Harris on board, the Sixers have as strong a starting five as any team in the league outside of Golden State. They are also 23-6 straight up here at home where they are winning by an average of almost 10 PPG. Boston has lost two straight, both as favorites. After losing at the buzzer to the Lakers last Thursday, they blew a huge lead against the Clippers Saturday and lost by double digits as double digit favorites. The Celtics are only a .500 team on the road (13-13 SU) and they are 3-6 (both SU and ATS) as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is 71-43 ATS its L114 home games and is in top form right now. Don't expect them to take the Celtics lightly as they're 0-2 against them this season, including an OT loss on Christmas Day. This is their revenge. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is an 8* Play on PORTLAND

The last time Portland came to Oklahoma City, the number was only +4. While the Thunder did win that day, 123-114, one can only presume the real reason for the spike in the line is that the Blazers had to play Sunday and the Thunder did not. It was the closest of losses for Portland yesterday as they went down 102-101 after getting outscored 24-9 in the fourth quarter by Dallas. That should have them pretty eager to suit up this evening. OKC has won 10 of 11, but this looks to be too high of a spread in game between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. Even with yesterday's loss, Portland has still won 7 of 10. All things considered, these teams are pretty even. OKC was a slight dog when it won at Houston Saturday. That's a Rockets team just below the Blazers in the Western Conference standings. Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 8* play on DETROIT

It won't take many wins (38?) to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year. But regardless of how many it does take, there's no denying that both the Pistons and Wizards are coming off "good weeks" as far as keeping their postseason hopes relevant goes. Washington is coming off two straight wins while Detroit has won three in row. Now the Wizards happened to beat Chicago and Cleveland, two of the very worst teams in the league. The Pistons are coming off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, who have the worst record in the league. So there's really no need to alter our reads on the respective teams. Washington is still a really bad road team with an ATS record of 8-20 away from home (8-21 SU). So there's not much argument to be made for liking them getting such a short number. The Pistons are more rested coming into tonight and recent home wins over Dallas and Denver indicate that this should not be a hard number to cover. Washington is 5-21 ATS the L26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit has a 16-13 SU record at home. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

It's the teams with the two worst records in the league meeting Monday night in Cleveland. The Cavaliers (11-45) are a half game up on the miserable Knicks, who have lost 16 in a row. That streak matches the worst in franchise history. They've also lost 24 of 25 and 29 out of the last 31. While this may seem to be the Knicks best chance at winning in a long time, the same holds true for the Cavs, who come in as the favorite for only the fifth time all season. The Knicks already lost once here in Cleveland, two months ago, by a score of 113-106. Kevin Love could play tonight for the Cavs, who are likely to be the more motivated team by virtue of playing at home. This very likely will be an ugly game, but predicting the Knicks to win on the road seems a bit foolish. Therefore, I will "hold my nose" and take Cleveland, who has actually won three times since the Knicks last won a game. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

About two weeks ago the Sixers beat the Lakers 121-105. They were 7.5 point favorites on the road. If any of that sounds odd to you, be aware that LeBron James did not play. Obviously, there needs to be some sort of adjustment made by the oddsmakers now that LeBron is back in the Lakers lineup. But a Lakers team that is simply mediocre at best should still be a bigger underdog for this rematch in Philly. The Sixers are also stronger now than they were two weeks ago, thanks to the Tobias Harris trade. In terms of a starting five, the 76ers have one of the best groups in the league. They just beat a very good Denver team by seven here at home on Friday. That same night saw the Lakers win in Boston, but the win came on a buzzer beater and that was after they trailed the Celtics by as many as 18 points. Remember that with James in the lineup, the Lakers lost by 42 to an Indiana team (Wednesday) that no longer has Victor Oladipo. The 76ers are 22-6 SU at home this year and 70-43 ATS their L113 home games. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

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This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah is hot, San Antonio is not. It's as simple as that Saturday night for this Western Conference clash. The Jazz have won 13 of their last 18 games, mirroring last year's second half surge. They are also 9-2 the L11 home games. The Spurs have not gotten off to a good start on their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they're now 0-3 after tasting defeat in Portland Thursday night. I didn't like them in that spot (played against them) and with this being a third road game in four nights and fourth in six nights, it's just as difficult to see them winning - or even covering - here. Speaking of covering, that's something San Antonio has not done for six straight games. There were two meetings in December between these teams and the home team won handily both times. The Spurs have been a pretty bad road team as their record away from home is now 10-18 straight up. Of the two, Utah is the much better defensive team. All signs point to an easy Jazz victory tonight. Play on UTAH.

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI

Second time in a row we'll be playing against Sacramento. We chose to lay the points with Houston on Wednesday and they really handed it to the Kings in a 127-101 game. That snapped Sacramento's three-game win streak. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Kings is how they've made the most of the times that they've been favored. They've gone 12-1 straight up and 11-2 against the spread in those games and come in as chalk tonight vs. Miami. But give me the Heat and the points after they just upset the Blazers in Portland Tuesday night. Miami is 8-2 ATS after winning a game outright as a dog. They have a 15-8 ATS record as an underdog and have covered 16 of their 25 road games so far. I do not see the Kings staying above .500 for too long. They're still weak defensively. Miami has revenge for an early season loss at home. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

San Antonio essentially waved the proverbial "white flag" last night as it sat both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge against Golden State. Thus, the final result was rather predictable and sure enough they lost 141-102. Not that they had much of a chance, but giving up 49 pts in the third quarter certainly didn't help. The Spurs are now 0-2 to start the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they also lost in Sacramento Monday. Though DeRozan and Aldridge will presumably both play tonight, it's not like Portland is an easy place to play. And the Blazers are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss they suffered on Tuesday to Miami, also a National TV game. I don't see Portland losing two in a row at home, so lay the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* Play on Houston

Houston is at the end of a four-game road trip here. But I expect them to play well against the overachieving Kings. In the second game of a back to back on Monday, they won by eight at Phoenix. That followed a very impressive performance at Utah where they won by 27. The Kings have won three in a row, all at home, and just upset the Spurs Monday. Who would have thought they'd be three games over .500 after 53 games? Not I. Things are starting to come together for the Rockets with Chris Paul back in the lineup. Earlier this season, they blew Sacramento out by 20 points. The Kings still give up too many points to be taken seriously. Houston covers the small number. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* play on the LAKERS

All of a sudden, Indiana has won two in a row. This is a rather dramatic turn from the way things had been going since the season-ending injury suffered by leading scorer Victor Oladpio. Before beating the Heat and Pelicans, the Pacers had lost four in a row. They're still struggling to score as they've averaged less than 100 PPG in the six games withould Oladipo. The 109 they scored last night in New Orleans was the most of any of the six games. This being the second night of a back to back, it's tough to like the Pacers chances. Last night, they faced New Orleans without Anthony Davis. Tonight, it's the Lakers with a returning LeBron James. The Lakers will be rested and ready, James in particular, as he sat out Saturday's loss to the Warriors. James' official return to the lineup was two nights earlier and the Lakers beat the Clippers 123-120. They're a team fighting to get back into the top eight in the Western Conference and tonight's matchup is theirs for the taking. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is an 8* play on PHOENIX

Houston could not possibly have played any better than it did Saturday in Utah. Against a very hot Jazz team, they won going away, 125-98 as seven-point pups. James Harden continued his record-setting streak with 43 points, his 26th game in a row scoring 30 or more. With Chris Paul likely to play tonight, the expectation is going to be the Rockets will roll in Phoenix. After all, the Suns are a team they have beaten eight consecutive times. Furthermore, Phoenix is on a season-worst 10-game losing streak right now and second leading scorer T.J. Warren is M.I.A. But, I'm here to advise that you should "pump the brakes" on what has been a wildly inconsistent Houston team that is 11-14 on the road and playing a third game in four nights. The Rockets are 5-14 ATS after topping 115 points in their last game. Phoenix was actually favored in their last game when they lost at home to Atlanta. They are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off an outright loss as a favorite. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

This will be the Pistons first game since blowing a 25-point lead to the Clippers over the weekend. Playing at home, they should come out motivated. It's a tough opponent they're hosting as Denver has won six straight. They're 37-15 SU and tied with Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. But the Nuggets may very well be road weary as this will be the fourth time playing away from home in the last seven games with two more away dates to come this week. They barely escaped Minnesota with a one-point win on Saturday. The fact that they've been so successful in spite of so many injuries is what's particularly shocking.  Two starters are still out for tonight. Detroit badly needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt as they are two games back of the 8th spot right now. Denver is just 14-11 SU on the road (23-4 SU at home) and has been outscored in those games. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on BOSTON

Oklahoma City bring a seven-game win streak into Boston Sunday, which is a season-best. They are now just 3.5 games back of Denver & Golden State in the Western Conference. Paul George is playing at a MVP-level right now as he scored 43 points in the Thunder's last win, which came Friday night in Miami by score of 118-102. But I still believe Boston to be the better team in this matchup. The Celtics have won eight of nine, the only loss coming by four points to Golden State. There's now some manufactured "drama" surrounding Kyrie Irving's future with the team, but the present still looks very bright. The Celtics may only be in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, but they have a better point differential than the Thunder. I expect them to go on a big second half run. While OKC is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year, Boston deserves to be favored by more than the "token" three points in this matchup. They are 36-17 ATS their last 53 home games. Play on BOSTON

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This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO

This is a prime letdown spot for Philly after they beat the Warriors Thursday night. The Kings are not as bad as you, or anyone else, thinks. Thanks to some of the best three-point shooting in the league, they have been able to stay above .500 past the mid-season mark for the 1st time in forever. Something else noteworthy here is that the Sixers are a below average team on the road. This is the end of a pretty tough trip for them, one that has seen them play Denver, the Lakers and Golden State. They've managed to win the last two, but their tank may be near empty tonight. The Kings scored 135 points in their last game and anything close to that tonight will make them hard to beat. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* play on the BUCKS

The two top teams in the Eastern Conference square off up in Canada in this TNT matchup. The last time the Raptors and Bucks met, the former was able to win 123-116 in Milwaukee despite not having Kyle Lowry. But the Bucks were also in the second night of a back to back there and probably overconfident after scoring 144 points the previous night. Though their records are almost identical, all other number indicate the Bucks have been the superior team compared to the Raptors this year. Milwaukee has the best point differential in the sport right now at +10.0 PPG. Tuesday's win in Detroit kept them perfect this year when coming off a SU loss (13-0). The Bucks won the first two times they faced the Raptors, one of those wins coming in Toronto. The Bucks are also 4-2 straight up and against the spread as an underdog. Play on MILWAUKEE 

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Last Friday, Dallas beat Detroit 106-101. That game was at home though where the Mavs own an 18-7 straight up record. This time, the game is in the Motor City. The Mavs did win on the road last night, but that was against the team with the fewest wins in the league (New York). Their road record is still an ugly 5-20 SU and playing this rematch in the second night of a back to back does them no favors. The Pistons have played just one time since losing to Dallas and it was here at home, Tuesday, versus the Bucks. They lost by 10. But Milwaukee is one of the best teams in the league. Dallas has played eight back to backs this season. They are 1-7 straight up in the second game. Play on DETROIT

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This is an 8* play on CHICAGO

Brooklyn just lost a hard-fought game last night in Boston, by a score of 112-104. So having to turn around in 24 hours and lay an uncharacteristic amount of points seems dicey. Yes, they're playing the Bulls, a team that has won just one time in 2019. But Chicago's last two losses were by three and five points. The Nets had won six straight going into last night, but it's still a pretty rare sight to see them favored by so many points. They have recently covered similar spots against the likes of Atlanta and New York. But neither of those games were played in the second night of a back to back. The Nets are just 2-8 straight up and against the spread when unrested this season. Chicago comes in with a winning ATS record when on a losing streak of three or more games. They'll cover here. Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

Milwaukee has the best straight up record in the league (35-13) right now and a big reason for that is they have yet to drop back to back games this season. They are off a loss here. Sunday, Oklahoma City beat them, 118-112. For the record, the Bucks were a small underdog in that game. Tonight, they are pretty sizable favorite in Detroit. While it is pretty remarkable how well they have performed off a loss this season, going 12-0 SU (10-2 ATS) and winning by an average of 14.8 points per game, I think the potential for a "slip up" is present tonight. Detroit has been off for three days since concluding a road trip with a narrow defeat in Dallas. Tonight is a triple revenge spot as the Pistons look to avoid a season sweep at the hands of their division rival. The Pistons have played just two games on three or more days rest. They won both. Play on DETROIT 

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This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

As touched upon in the writeup for the Milwaukee-Detroit game, Oklahoma City picked up a big win Sunday at the Bucks expense. It was the fifth straight win for the Thunder overall. Paul George is playing at a MVP level right now and the entire team is shooting well from three-point land. But tonight's game in Orlando is trickier than it looks. The Magic may not be doing much winning of late, but they're not getting blown out either. Their last six losses have been by a total of 30 points. That's an average of just five points per game. Sunday found them leading the Rockets (on the road) by as much as 16 points before they wilted late and lost 103-98. Taking out games where they are favored at home, Orlando has a pretty good ATS record this year. Three of Oklahoma City's wins during the current win streak have been by six points or less. I can see them slipping up here. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* play on the PACERS

Indiana's first game without Victor Oladipo resulted in a loss (at Memphis), but it's not as if the Pacers weren't competitive Saturday night. They lost by only three on the road despite getting out to a really slow start. Now staying competitive with Golden State is obviously a much more difficult proposition. Obviously, the Pacers cannot afford a similar slow start to the one we saw in Memphis. Lucky for them, this game takes place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse where they are 18-6 this season. Often times, we see the oddsmakers and public overreact to an injury. Losing Oladipo is a tough break, but had he been in the lineup tonight, my guess is the spread would be a lot closer to a pick 'em. Not sure Oladipo is worth THAT much to the spread. Indiana is 7-5 SU with him out of the lineup this season. The Warriors are off a big-time road win in Boston and may not give this game their full attention. It's also at the end of a five-game road swing. The Pacers are a perfect 3-0 ATS as home dogs this season. Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* play on the KNICKS

The Knicks are having a tough go of it this season, but I used them (plus the points) earlier in the week and came out ahead. That was against Houston, their last home game, and they lost by six while getting eight. That ATS win was followed up by a less than stellar performance in Brooklyn where they did NOT cover, losing by 10 as 8.5-point dogs. The losing streak has now hit eight in the Big Apple and the Knicks are 2-21 SU their last 23 games. The good news is the last time they were on an eight-game losing streak, they won, beating the Lakers. Tonight, they host Miami, who just failed to cover as a road favorite in Cleveland Friday. Before that, the Heat had lost four of five. Don't like them in the road favorite role at all. I wasn't afraid to take the points with the Cavs against the Heat and its the same story here. The home team has won the last five times these teams have played. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* play on the MAVS

So Toronto comes into this game off two straight losses on the road. Both were close games. They lost to Indiana by four in what turned out to be Victor Oladipo's final game of the season. They lost to Houston by two, but never actually led in the game. Facing Dallas, the expectation will be for the Raptors to win. But Dallas has proven to be a tough out lately and all season for that matter when they're at home. The Mavericks' home record is now 18-6 SU following two straight wins (and covers) against the Clippers and Pistons. Typically, you'll see the Mavs play much better defense at home than on the road. That's definitely been the case the last two games. Luka Doncic is great and should be the Rookie of the Year. Hopefully, Dennis Smith Jr can find peace playing alongside Doncic. Dallas is 17-7 ATS at home, including a phenomenal 8-1 as an underdog. Play on DALLAS 

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This is a 10* play on the CAVS

It's "deja vu all over again" in Cleveland where the fanbase has to be feeling "2010 vibes." Of course, the 2010-11 season was a disaster as LeBron James had just decided to take his "talents" to South Beach. The Cavs would finish a league-worst 19-63 SU that year. Of course, everything worked out in the end as James returned and Cleveland won its first major professional sports championship in six decades. But eight years later, the Cavaliers have returned to the bottom of the league. They are 9-40 SU and have won only one time in the last 18 games. Somewhat ironically, they face LeBron's "other" former team tonight. As bad as things are, I expect Cleveland to cover. Miami has failed to score even 100 points in four of its last five games. They should not be laying this much weight to anybody on the road. Without Goran Dragic, turnovers have been an issue. This will be the Heat's 5th road game in 11 days. Cleveland is playing at home for just the 2nd time in 17 days, so maybe that motivates them?  Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* play on the WIZARDS

Golden State rolls into Washington D.C. on an eight-game win streak. But the Wizards should be ready for this nationally televised affair Thursday night and they're playing a lot better since John Wall went down. Over the last 10 games, Washington's record is 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. Their last game, a 101-87 win over Detroit, saw them allow a season-low in points. The only home game they've lost in the new year was to Toronto, by two, and that game went to double overtime. The Warriors have hardly played a murderer's row of opponents lately. January's schedule has been filled with sub-.500 foes, save for that big win they had in Denver last Tuesday. The Wizards are six games below the Mendoza Line, but that doesn't mean they're out of it in the Eastern Conference. Not that the underdog needs any added motivation beyond hosting the NBA Champs on TNT. Washington is a good home team too. Their record at the Verizon Center is 14-8 straight up and they're 5-1 ATS when getting points. Play on WASHINGTON. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the KNICKS

The Knicks have very little going for them presently, but they are getting a nice number at home tonight against a Houston side that just got blown out Monday in Philadelphia. The Rockets reliance on James Harden, some would say over-reliance, has perhaps become a bit of a problem. Harden scored 37 on MLK Day, but the rest of the team did very little to support him, contributing only 56 points. Part of that is injuries to both Clint Capela and Chris Paul, which have them out of the lineup. Carmelo Anthony is long gone. Then again, offense doesn't matter much when you're giving up as many points as the Rockets have been lately. They are 4-12 ATS this season after giving up 115 or more points the last game. The Rockets are just 9-13 SU on the road this year, so I wouldn't put it past them to throw up another "clunker" tonight. Eventually, Harden's record-breaking streak of 30+ point games (now at 20 straight) is going to come to an end. Play NEW YORK

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