Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.

We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the Suns as they try to close the gap on the Kings in the Pacific Division standings (Phoenix currently sits two games back of Sacramento for top spot). Sacramento has been a terrific story this season but we've certainly seen some regression from the Kings lately as they've gone an even 6-6 over their last 12 games. We did get the result we wanted from them on Saturday as they successfully avenged a loss to the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back set at home, prevailing 133-128 in overtime. That sets us up with a reasonably short number in favor of the Suns at home here. While Phoenix is a little undermanned right now with Kevin Durant still sidelined and yet to make his team debut, I like the fact that it has gone back to its bread-and-butter, that being its defense, to right the ship. The Suns have won three of their last five games and are absolutely locked-in defensively right now having held four of those five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Suns opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, managing only 75, 81, 79, 95 and 85 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The outlier came in a game where they were severely short-handed on trade deadline day against the Hawks (Devin Booker missed that game as well). Save for that poor performance in Atlanta, the Suns have made good on more than 40 field goals in four of their last five and six of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Kings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 48, 44, 47, 43 and 47 (aided by overtime) field goals over their last five contests. In fact, Sacramento has allowed an incredible 20 straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. Offensively, the Kings are explosive but we've seen some inconsistency in that department lately as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three of their last six games. Take Phoenix (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

While the number may look sizable at first glance, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against both the Thunder and Blazers lately. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 45 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Portland has seen three straight opponents knock down at least 46 field goals. The good news is, both offenses are humming as well. The Thunder have put up 120 points or more in four of their last seven games and have made good on 56, 44 and 49 field goals over their last three games. They're pushing the pace at every opportunity as well, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. It's a similar story for the Blazers. Apart from a brief lull against the Bucks earlier this week, they've knocked down 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While dealing away Josh Hart leaves a bit of a void offensively, that should only mean more shot attempts for the red hot Damian Lillard. You certainly don't get better defensively after dealing away a guy like Hart. You only have to go back two meetings in this series to see the last time Oklahoma City and Portland combined to put up more than 240 total points and four matchups to find the last time they got into the 260's. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Milwaukee at 10 pm et on Thursday.

I'll take a flyer on the Lakers here as they catch a generous helping of points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Everything went right for Milwaukee on Monday as it cruised to a 19-point win over the Blazers in Portland. The Bucks were certainly fortunate that Portland had an off night shooting as the Blazers actually got off 91 field goal attempts in that contest. Milwaukee is still giving up far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, allowing each of its last five opponents to hoist up at least 91 field goal attempts. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that brings solid offensive form to the table having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. Note that the Bucks enter this game off consecutive ATS wins which is notable as they haven't strung together three straight ATS victories since the first week of November. The Bucks are a long-term 113-166 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive straight-up wins, as is the case here. Despite their lopsided win in Portland on Monday, they're still just 14-12 SU on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 points. The Lakers are winless ATS over their last three games. That's their longest ATS losing streak since dropping the cash in five straight games from December 18th to 25th. While they're just 13-13 SU at home this season they've outscored opponents by 2.3 points on average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

This one has the potential to get ugly fast for the Spurs. However, rather than lay the points with the Raptors, we'll play the 'over' in this spot as I am confident San Antonio can punch back for stretches in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team we've seen in the NBA in quite some time. They enter this game in their absolute worst form of the season having allowed six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals with five of those foes hitting 50 or more, including their most recent opponent, the Chicago Bulls. On the road this season, they're allowing a ridiculous average of 47 made field goals per game, leading to just north of 125 points per contest. The Raptors enter this game playing fast. They've hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of their last eight games. They've made good on 40 or more field goals in 11 straight contests. On the flip side, the Raptors have been doing a good job of slowing their opponents down. I'm just not sure they'll need to given the wealth of scoring opportunities they're likely to have at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Note that Toronto did hold an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals for the first time in six games on Sunday in Memphis. Of course, that was with the Grizzlies missing a number of key contributors including Ja Morant, not to mention the fact that Memphis got off just 78 field goal attempts in the game (they knocked down 38 of them). Should the pace tick up at all in this one, as I suspect it will, the potential is there for the Spurs to go off offensively. Despite San Antonio's lack of success from a win-loss perspective, it does enter this game having made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight contests and 27 of their last 30 games overall. Note that both of these teams are coming off an off day (two in the case of Toronto) and will also have the day off on Thursday. No reason for either to hold anything back in this one. Take the over (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

PLEASE NOTE: I released this play in the early morning hours when the total was in the high-230's. With the news of Jokic, Murray and Gordon possibly all sitting for the Nuggets, it has dropped considerably. I do still recommend the play at the current number, albeit with a lower confidence level.

We just missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets rout of the Hawks last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Denver hits the road for a back-to-back spot at Minnesota on Sunday. Last night's game ended a streak of 11 straight games in which the Nuggets held opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The lopsided nature of that affair against Atlanta certainly contributed to Denver's relatively loose defensive play. 'Fat and happy' off three straight wins, scoring 122 or more points in all three contests, I'm not convinced we'll see a peak offensive performance from Denver again on Sunday. Minnesota will certainly be focused on tightening things up defensively after allowing Orlando to go off for 127 points in an 'upset' home loss on Friday. Prior to that contest, the Timberwolves had seen seven straight games stay 'under' the total and the 'under' remains 18-13 in their home games this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Hawks are in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in the last four nights (in three different cities) as they continue their road trip in the high altitude of Denver on Saturday. Atlanta has been shooting the lights out, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five straight games. It also got off more than 90 field goal attempts in four of those five contests, however, a number I believe it will have a tough time approaching here. The Nuggets check in having held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They certainly haven't been at their best defensively during their current 3-0 'over' streak, allowing 46, 42 and 43 made field goals but again, I like the spot they catch the Hawks in here. While Atlanta is known for being extremely vulnerable defensively, the addition of Dejounte Murray has certainly helped its cause in that regard this season. The Hawks enter this contest having held eight of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. In the back half of their last six back-to-back situations, they've limited their foes to 89, 87, 83, 83, 86 and 83 FG attempts with the 'under' going 4-2 along the way (only one of those games went 'over' the total we're working with tonight). In the first meeting between these two teams this season both sides actually shot exceptionally well (Denver was 45-of-85 and Atlanta was 49-of-88) yet that game still totalled 'only' 226 points. Take the under (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this game red hot ATS, although in the case of the Blazers, getting over the hump in that regard has proven difficult. They're coming off consecutive ATS victories (and four in their last five games) but haven't reeled off three straight ATS wins since December 10th to 14th. In that case, the third ATS win came in a rout of the lowly Spurs. The Wizards check in riding a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Impressively, the last four wins came on the road. They won by 21 points last time out in San Antonio and that's notable as they've gone 24-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Note that Washington has held seven of its last nine opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While that's not all that impressive on the face of it, keep in mind, seven of those nine opponents got off 90 or more field goal attempts. Here, the Wizards are unlikely to face such a shooting barrage as the Blazers have hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 11 of their last 12 contests. On the flip side, Portland has proven extremely vulnerable defensively, allowing 11 straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in four of their last five contests. While these non-conference matchups sometimes leave teams feeling a little flat, I don't think that will be the case for the Wizards, not after they dropped both meetings in this series last season, including a home loss where they were favored by seven points. Look for revenge-minded Washington to gets its payback here. Take Washington (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

There's little chance we see the likes of Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins in this game and that leads to the total sitting in a very reasonable range. Remember, the last time the Warriors rested their stars, they still scored 120 points in an upset win over a good Cavs team in Cleveland earlier this month. There's a good chance we see the Nuggets offense absolutely go off in this one. Denver is in fine form offensively after knocking down 44 and 43 field goals over its last two games, scoring 119 and 122 points in the process. Keep in mind, those were relatively slow-paced affairs. Here, the Nuggets will face a Warriors squad that has allowed 101, 93 and 95 field goal attempts in regulation time over their last three games. Incredibly, nine straight Golden State opponents have knocked down at least 42 field goals in regulation time. You would have to go back 16 games, all the way to December 28th, to find the last time the Warriors held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. As I mentioned, Golden State is likely to give a number of its key contributors the night off, probably not the worst thing after Thompson and Curry combined to shoot 11-for-34 in last night's overtime loss in Minnesota (we won with the Timberwolves in that game). That game did manage to stay 'under' the total, which is notable as the Warriors haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 25th to 30th. Take the over (10*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Heat enter this game off consecutive wins but both of those games could have gone either way as they beat the Pelicans by four and the Celtics by three. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown off the big win over the Celtics on Tuesday (they were without Jimmy Butler in that game). The pace alone in Miami's recent contests makes grabbing a generous helping of points an attractive proposition. The Heat's last three games have seen a total of 149, 158 and 168 field goal attempts. Miami checks in having knocked down 33, 35 and 34 field goals over that stretch. In stark contrast, Orlando is as healthy as it has been all season and it shows - at least offensively. The Magic have made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games - the lone outlier came in a contest where they still scored 123 points in a double-digit win over New Orleans. Yes, Orlando has gone an ugly 6-17 SU on the road this season but it is a far more respectable 11-11-1 ATS. Compare that with the Heat, who are 16-9 SU but just 8-15-2 ATS on their home floor. When you break down the numbers, the Heat actually don't hold much of an advantage at all in this matchup. Orlando has knocked down one less field goal per game on the road compared to Miami at home, but has done so on two fewer field goal attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Magic yield two more made field goals per game on the road compared to the Heat at home, but do so on four additional FG attempts given up per contest. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 4-14 ATS when coming off an ATS victory this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points in that situation. They're also just 5-15 ATS when following up consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.5 points on average in that spot. Take Orlando (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I understand the logic behind the Nuggets being substantial underdogs here. After all, the Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot, on the road, while the Bucks return home after putting up a ridculous 150 points in a win over the Pistons two nights ago. They're not all that flashy by any means but the Nuggets have won an incredible 20 of their last 24 games. Based on the style Denver is employing right now, it's going to be tough for anyone to beat it by a considerable margin. The Nuggets have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They've limited 11 consecutive opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While Denver has made good on only 36 and 39 field goals in its last two contests that had a lot to do with the snail's pace those two games were played at. Here, they'll have a chance to get loose against a Bucks squad that has allowed their last six opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43, 46, 48 and 43 field goals, going a modest 3-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just returned two nights ago but this is a team that has figured out how to win without him in recent years. Here, Milwaukee will be missing an underrated contributor in Bobby Portis after he suffered a knee injury. Note that the Bucks are just 29-48 ATS when returning home off a road win over a division opponent going all the way back to 1996. Take Denver (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Mavericks offensively after they were held down by the Clippers last time out. In fact, Dallas is coming off consecutive low-scoring, slow-paced games against Miami and Los Angeles. I expect nothing of the sort here as the Mavs host the Wizards on Tuesday. Yes, Washington will be without Kristaps Porzingis and just dealt Rui Hachimura to the Lakers after he poured in 30 points last time out. I still anticipate the Wizards pushing the pace here, noting they've knocked down 42, 42 and 51 field goals over their last three games and have hoisted up 93 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Washington has had no success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, allowing nine of its last 10 opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time the Wiz held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. While Dallas held up well defensively in its last two games, it is still sorely missing the presence of Christian Wood on the inside and the blowout nature of those last two contests likely contributed to keeping the pace down. Note that prior to those two contests, the Mavs had allowed 44, 49, 43 and 49 made field goals over their last four games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-11 with the Wizards coming off two wins in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 with Dallas coming off a loss this season, leading to an average total of 231.0 points in that situation. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

Having strung together consecutive wins - as healthy as they've been in a quite a while with both Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan available - and with each of their next four games coming against Eastern Conference opponents, this is where the Bulls need to get on a run if they want to put themselves in good position to reach the playoffs (they currently sit in 10th place in the conference). Tonight's opponent, the Hawks, are one of the teams Chicago is looking up at in the Eastern Conference standings. I like what I've seen from the Bulls lately. Save for a poor showing against the red hot Thunder, they've held four of their last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have certainly rounded into form offensively, knocking down 48 and 50 field goals themselves over their last two contests. The Hawks have also been hot offensively but their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. Atlanta checks in having allowed its last four opponents to make good on 43, 44, 49 and 45 field goals. Keep in mind, the Hawks are just 11-13 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points per contest. The Bulls check in 12-10 at the United Center, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 points on average. To find the last time Atlanta won a game here in Chicago, you would have to go back to December of 2020. Take Chicago (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

We just saw this matchup on Monday as the Grizzlies rolled to a 30-point home victory. While the Suns would certainly like to get some quick revenge here at home, I don't feel they're well-positioned to do so. Note that Phoenix has been getting healthier with Cam Johnson returning this past Thursday. In fact, the Suns have now won consecutive games after posting a five-point victory against the Pacers last night. But now they're in a tough back-to-back spot with a number of key contributors questionable to play due to injury management or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just one day removed from a tough one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles. They remain locked-in defensively, having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Grizz continue to roll along offensively, making good on an incredible 43 or more field goals in 12 consecutive games. In fact, their 43-for-102 shooting performance against the Lakers on Friday was their low-water mark going all the way back to December 27th. The Suns have been lagging defensively. Prior to last night they had allowed their last four opponents to knock down 48, 47, 52 and 43 field goals. Last night's opponent, the Pacers, quite simply had an off night shooting as they actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts but only knocked down 36 of them. Usually stingy defensively when full strength, Phoenix has now allowed four of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts. I expect the Grizzlies to take advantage on Sunday. Take Memphis (10*).

Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

There's still a cloud of uncertainty around the status of the stars of both of these teams with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell questionable to play in Saturday's fourth meeting of the season. It sounds like there's a better chance that Giannis will return than Mitchell but regardless, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cavs at home. Cleveland fell in stunning fashion against a Warriors squad that was resting its stars last night. Needless to say, I think the Cavs took a win for granted given the undermanned nature of the Warriors in that one. I don't expect Cleveland to have any trouble regrouping for a visit from one of the NBA's elite teams in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off consecutive near-perfect offensive showings in wins over the Pacers and Raptors at home. Lost in the Bucks recent offensive success is the fact that their defensive play hasn't been up to par. They've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43 and 46 field goals. They've also had little success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have limited seven of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. They're allowing just 39 made field goals per contest at home this season, a big reason they've gone 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS here in Cleveland. Take Cleveland (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Nets are fresh off an embarrassing loss in San Antonio two nights ago (we won with the 'under' in that game). That marked their third straight loss although perhaps it was to be expected with Kyrie Irving sidelined (remember Kevin Durant is on the shelf as well). Kyrie is expected to return from that one-game absence on Thursday. The Suns will likely have Cam Johnson back and it sounds like there's an outside chance that Chris Paul could be back in the lineup as well. I simply see a Phoenix squad that is completely out of sorts right now, and will likely remain that way until its regulars get back up to speed. Note that the Suns have been torched for 48, 47 and 52 made field goals over their last three games. While they had been at least limiting their opponents' pace for a stretch, they've now allowed three of their last four foes to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. It's a much different story for Brooklyn. It has held five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and three of its last five to 38 or less. Offensively, it's been a grind without KD in the lineup but I expect scoring opportunities to be in abundance against a listless Suns defense on Thursday. Note that Phoenix took both meetings between these two teams last season. Look for the revenge-minded Nets to rebound here, noting they've gone 25-10 ATS when playing on the road following an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points on average in that situation. Take Brooklyn (10*).

Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

While both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Monday, it's still been a bit of a grind offensively of late. Monday's game marked the first time in three contests the Wizards managed to knock down more than 38 field goals. Playing against the Warriors - a team that often plays at a break-neck pace - certainly helped their cause. All told, Washington has topped out at 42 field goals or less in six straight games, yet the 'over' has inexplicably gone 5-1 over that stretch. I do expect things to level out in that regard, at least in the short-term. The Knicks have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six consecutive games as well, and only got to that number thanks to overtime last time out against Toronto. New York has quietly been locked-in defensively, limiting seven of its last nine opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It held this same Washington squad to 36-of-92 shooting just last week. While last week's matchup did find its way 'over' the total, it didn't eclipse the number we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing). It's worth noting that we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since back in 2018 - that goes back a whopping 17 matchups. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This Nets team is just not the same without Kevin Durant on the floor. I realize that's a major understatement and fairly obvious to even the most casual NBA observer. But it's worth noting as we work with a total in the mid-230's with the Nets having just come off a winless two-game homestand that saw them struggle mightily from an offensive standpoint, knocking down just 38 and 39 field goals while scoring 98 and 102 points. The Spurs are of course one of, not the league's worst defensive team. With that being said, I do think they're better than they've shown in their last three games, allowing 135, 144 and 132 points against three teams that love to push the pace in the Grizzlies, Warriors and Kings over that stretch. While the Nets offense has regressed without Durant, their defense has held strong, limiting four straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals heading into this contest. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in each of their last five games. When these teams last met in Brooklyn on January 2nd, it was no contest as the Nets rolled to a 139-103 victory. Keep in mind, Kevin Durant paced Brooklyn's offense on that night, recording a double-double with 25 points and 11 assists. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 130-106 with the Spurs playing at home off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Gregg Popovich. Interestingly, the 'under' is 26-12 with Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn's teams playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS as well. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Thunder exercised some demons against the 76ers in Philadelphia last night, winning in convincing, blowout fashion as a considerable underdog (we won with Oklahoma City in that game as well). Here, I believe they'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort as they play the second of back-to-back nights against the Bulls in Chicago.

Chicago is fresh off a 100-97 loss in Washington two nights ago to wrap up a brief 0-2 road trip. A return home should help the Bulls cause, noting that they're 11-9 SU at the United Center and will be looking for their third straight victory in the Windy City on Friday.

Of course, the Bulls will likely be without Demar Derozan for a second straight game after he exited Monday's loss in Boston with an injured quad muscle. Zach Lavine suffered a hand contusion in Wednesday's loss in Washington but is expected to be good to go on Friday.

While I'm certainly not banking on it, I do think this could be a 'load management' spot for Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a back-to-back situation. He has suited up for two back-to-backs previously this season but sat out the front half of the team's most recent two-game in two-night set on January 3rd. Note that the Thunder will be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, in five different cities on Friday night.

While Oklahoma City did prevail last night in Philadelphia, that win snapped a six-game road losing streak. The Thunder are just 6-14 SU away from home this season. Also note that they're a miserable 3-14 ATS when coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 12.7 points in that situation.

The Bulls are a long-term 121-90 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses. Take Chicago (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

This is a classic fade spot for the Heat as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Atlanta last night. In fact, Milwaukee will be looking for third straight win to open its current road trip. However, in a back-to-back spot and knowing it will have another shot at the Heat here in South Beach on Saturday, I'm not convinced we see the Bucks best effort on Thursday.

Miami was undermanned but prevailed by a single point against Oklahoma City two nights ago. Here, the Heat should have Bam Adebayo back on the floor as they look to secure a second straight victory.

Despite the ATS loss against the Thunder, the Heat remain a solid 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests. They're just 6-14 ATS at home this season, laying inflated numbers on most nights, but that's not the case here. At the very least, the Heat have managed to outscore the opposition by 0.3 points on average on their home floor (which is more than can be said about the Bucks on the road, as you'll read below).

Milwaukee has been a better bet on the road than the Heat have been at home, but it still just 8-10 ATS on the highway, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points.

Note that Milwaukee has gone a woeful 21-37 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams were just involved in a relatively high-scoring affair two nights ago as the 76ers rolled to a 123-111 win in Detroit. That's been the norm for the Sixers lately as they enter this game riding a four-game 'over' streak (which matches a season-high). With both teams playing their fifth game in five nights, I believe both would prefer a slower-paced affair in Tuesday's rematch. The Pistons quietly shot the lights out in Sunday's contest, knocking down 44-of-87 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate a repeat performance with the scene shifting to Philadelphia, noting the 76ers are allowing just 40 made field goals per game on average at home this season. In a similar vein, the Pistons are making good on just 39 field goals per contest on the road this season. Philadelphia knocked down 46-of-94 field goal attempts on Sunday. The 76ers have been pushing the pace lately, getting off 98, 92 and 94 FG attempts in their last three games. I just don't see that being a sustainable trend, noting that Philadelphia averages just 85 FG attempts per contest this season, with that number rising only slightly to 86 here at home. Take the under (10*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Raptors are coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive display against Milwaukee two nights ago as they shot worse than 33% from the field yet still somehow rallied to force overtime in an eventual three-point loss. They check into this game off consecutive SU and ATS losses but I'm confident they'll bounce back against the division-rival Knicks on Friday. Note that New York has won three games in a row but those victories all came against down-trodden squads in the Rockets, Suns and Spurs, with the last two coming on their home floor. They're still just 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight games. You would have to go back 12 meetings here in Toronto - all the way to 2015 - to find the last time they won a game in Toronto. While laying points with the Raptors given their current state seems a little dicey, they've managed to cover the spread in all but two of their 16 straight-up victories this season, and both of those wins still came by four or more points. While the Raps are as healthy as they've been all season, the Knicks are without one of their best players, R.J. Barrett. This is a critical six-game homestand for the Raptors as it will likely decide whether or not they'll be 'selling' at the trade deadline. All is not lost after dropping the opener, I look for them to bounce back here. Take Toronto (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Nets look unstoppable right now having won 12 straight games. I don't think we'll see Chicago back down easily on Wednesday, however, noting that the Bulls already defeated the Nets in Brooklyn this season and have taken three of four matchups in this series going back to the start of last season. The Bulls are fresh off a tough overtime loss against the Cavs on Monday as Cleveland got an other-worldly performance from Donovan Mitchell. At 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games, Chicago does continue to play well. Here, I think the Nets are in for a letdown after absolutely shooting the lights out (60% or better from the field) in consecutive games. While Chicago is just an even 9-9 on its home floor this season, it has managed to outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 points. The Nets are 12-7 on the road but outscore opponents by just 1.9 points on average. I simply feel the Bulls are catching too many points here. Take Chicago (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Pacers enter this game on the heels of three consecutive 'over' results - their longest such streak of the season to date. I don't believe tonight's opponent, the Toronto Raptors, will have any interest in getting involved in a track meet, noting that Indiana has shot the lights out over its last three games, putting up 129, 135 and 131 points in reeling off three straight victories. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back in November. Toronto dropped that game by double-digits, pushing the pace to its own detriment, shooting just 37-of-94 from the field. After snapping its two-game skid with defense last time out (Toronto limited Phoenix to 35-of-71 shooting), I'm expecting the Raps be selective at the offensive end of the floor, noting that they've hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. Having held the opposition to just 81 FG attempts on average on the road this season, Toronto's gameplan is fairly clear at this point. As I mentioned, the Pacers have been shooting the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring results though, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five contests. Given we've seen point totals of 218, 191, 211, 222 and 222 in five meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season, I believe tonight's total will once again prove too high. Take the under (10*).

Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Saturday. The Cavs have seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total while the Bulls enter riding a four-game 'over' streak. Note that both teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with Cleveland knocking down 50-of-96 field goal attempts and Chicago hitting 53-of-92. I'm certainly not anticipating a repeat performance from either team on Saturday. Despite its recent 'over' streak, Cleveland has held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It has allowed the opposition to knock down an average of only 39 field goals per contest on the road this season. Chicago yielded just 86 FG attempts in last night's double-digit win over the Pistons. It has now held five of its last six opponents to a reasonable 43 or fewer made field goals. The only previous matchup between these two teams this season reached 224 total points but it got there thanks to the Cavs exploding for 128. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Warriors have inexplicably gone on a three-game winning streak without a number of key contributors including Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins but I look for that run to end here against the Blazers. Portland snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Charlotte last time out. This is undoubtedly a game the Blazers have had circled after dropping all three meetings with the Warriors last season, including a 132-95 home loss in their most recent matchup last February. The Warriors have actually allowed their opponents to get off 94, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over the course of their three-game winning streak. Those three opponents just haven't been able to make good on their wealth of opportunities. I don't expect the Blazers to suffer a similar fate tonight. Portland 'got right' offensively last time out, knocking down 43-of-86 FG attempts and should keep it rolling here. Take Portland (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with the T'Wolves here as I'm confident they can at the very least take this game down to the wire in a matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks. Minnesota had won three games in a row prior to dropping tough decisions against the Mavericks and Celtics. They still enter Monday's contest having made good on 42 or more field goals in five straight games, while holding three of their last six opponents to 34 or fewer made shots. Miami had also been hot prior to dropping its last two games, winners of four in a row. I don't see the same level of consistency from the Heat offense, however, noting that they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Interestingly, the T'Wolves have knocked down four more field goals per game than the Heat this season, despite getting off just one more field goal attempt per contest. At the other end of the floor, Minnesota has allowed one more made field goal but on five additional attempts yielded to opponents. The T'Wolves should come in with confidence having taken all three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 113-104 win here in Miami last March. Take Minnesota (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers scored 117 points in an upset victory in Boston last time out but needed a whopping 98 field goal attempts to get there. It's highly unlikely they come close to approaching that level of production here as Miami has held five of its last seven opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts, including these same Pacers back on December 12th, in a game that totalled just 169 points. For their own part, the Heat aren't scoring with much consistency right now, knocking down 40 or more field goals just once in their last six contests. The Pacers have quietly held the opposition in check lately, yielding just 38, 39 and 39 made field goals over their last three games. Take the under (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll take this opportunity to fade the Cavs, who check in 8-5 straight-up on the road this season but have been outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points per contest. The Cavs are 15-2 on their home floor, laying waste to the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. While it's true Milwaukee just dismantled a good New Orleans team in a 128-119 victory in the Big Easy two nights ago, the Bucks are also just two games removed from a 41-point rout at the hands of the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Cavs are riding a four-game winning streak and will have revenge in mind here after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both games were played in Milwaukee). Cleveland took both matchups on its home floor last season and neither game was all that competitive with the Cavs winning by 16 and 18 points. Take Cleveland (10*).

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night in Charlotte. The Hawks have gotten drilled in the first two games of their current road trip, allowing 128 and 135 points in lopsided defeats in Memphis and Orlando. You have to imagine they'll be looking to button things up defensively in this one, noting that they've actually allowed 120 points or more in four straight games heading in. The good news is, they've allowed just 91 and 116 points in their last two trips to Charlotte going back to last season with neither of those contests coming close to approaching the lofty total we're dealing with tonight. Charlotte is reeling as well having lost six consecutive games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 with the Hornets playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, 13-3 when playing at home off two straight losses over the last two seasons and 9-1 when at home following three consecutive defeats over the same stretch. Perhaps better still, the 'under' is 15-5 with Charlotte playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 214.5 points in that spot - a full 20 points below the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*).

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday.

Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*).

Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*).

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*).

Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday.

I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*).

NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday.

Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*).

NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday.

The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*).

NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday.

I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*).

My selection is on Boston moneyline over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Heat in the first half (and the full game 'over') in Game 6 of this series on Friday night. I couldn't help but feel that the betting marketplace was missing the mark with Miami installed as a big underdog in a series where either team is capable of rising up and delivering a dominant performance in any given contest. The Heat did well to stave off elimination in Boston but I expect the Celtics to respond and deliver the knockout blow in Miami on Sunday. Note that the Celtics were finally able to limit the Heat's scoring opportunities somewhat on Friday night, holding them to a series-low 78 field goal attempts. Miami simply shot the lights out, relatively-speaking. It's been a bit of a slog for the Boston offense at times in this series, struggling to get out of the 70's in terms of field goal attempts per game. However, we have seen them shown the ability to shoot exceptionally well also. Off a poor shooting night on Friday, I'm certainly anticipating a strong bounce-back performance on Sunday. Rather than lay the points with the C's on the road here, we'll back them at a very reasonable price on the moneyline. Having cashed a number of tickets with the scrappy Heat in this series already, I do have plenty of respect for them and don't expect them to get their doors blown off by any means. Take Boston moneyline (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*).

Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday.

Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*).

Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*).

Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*).

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday.

We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*).

NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*).

NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday.

Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*).

NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*).

NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

PLEASE NOTE: Jimmy Butler has been surprisingly ruled OUT for this game (he wasn't on any injury reports initially). I would still recommend playing the Heat at the current number (-4/-4.5 at the time of this update - 4:20 pm et).

Miami took full control of this series with a 110-86 win in Atlanta on Sunday and I look for the Heat to wrap up the series back at home on Tuesday night. Note that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in an incredible 25 consecutive games involving the Hawks. Here, we'll note that Atlanta is a woeful 0-8 ATS when playing on the road off a loss by 15+ points over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 9.8 points in that spot. The Hawks are just 2-12 when seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent over the last two seasons as well. Miami, meanwhile, is right in its comfort zone, having gone 19-9 ATS after allowing 100 points or less in its previous game this season, outscoring opponents by 9.1 points on average in that situation. Atlanta has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in this series, attempting 75, 87, 80 and 75 field goals in the first four games, making good on 30 or fewer of them in two of those contests. While the Hawks did take the Heat down to the wire in a 113-109 loss here in Miami back on April 8th, the Heat were undermanned on that night and Atlanta only managed to stay close thanks to getting off 16 more field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect the Hawks to repeat that particular performance here, noting that Miami has held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting on average at home this season. Finally, I'll point out that unlike the Hawks, the Heat have been incredibly consistent offensively in recent weeks, making good on 40+ field goals in eight of their last nine games and scoring 110+ points in all nine of those contests. Take Miami (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday.

We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*).