Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-16-21 | Cavs v. Nets -14 | 109-123 | Push | 0 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Brooklyn Im betting will want to finish off their season with a-lot of momentum both from a offensive and defensive perspective which Im betting results in a big time DD victory. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS/SU after their opponent made at least 10 more free throws than they did last game with each loss coming by 15 or more points with the average ppg diff clicking in by an average of 30.4 ppg. CLEVELAND is 9-23 ATS as a road underdog this season. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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05-15-21 | Celtics +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Boston was locked into a spot in the play-in tournament after its 102-94 loss in Cleveland on Wednesday night and find themselves in that spot because of injuries that have seen them struggle down the stretch. However, Boston is still a viable opponent for this afternoons competition the Minnesota Wolves who despite of playing better are still a non play off side with some major inconsistencies. Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Celtics are 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Play on Boston to cover |
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05-15-21 | Lakers v. Pacers UNDER 226.5 | 122-115 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
The Lakers who are ranked No.1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency opus operandi bases it successes and failures on playing a tough defensive system that plays a great deal to transitional play. Considering Indiana runs a all out take no prisoners style of hoops its obvious that two different styles will go head to head here. However Im betting on the superior side solidifying that future play off game plan by making sure their will is imposed, which will see this game grind at a slower pace than the lines-makers expect or project. Also generally speaking afternoon action has a way of being slower paced than games played later in the day or night, thus adding to my belief that this combined score fails to eclipse the total. Note: Indiana is off a big time offensive slugfest last time out losing 143-132 to the Bucks , and Im betting they will regress here with less energy and offensive efficiency. INDIANA is 21-8 L/29 UNDER after scoring 130 points with the average combined score clicking in at 210.6 ppg. INDIANA is 13-3 UNDER in home games after allowing 130 points with a combined average of 201.8 ppg. LA LAKERS are 28-11 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with the combined average score of 212.1 ppg going on the board. LA LAKERS are 32-15 UNDER (+15.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average combined score clicking at 215.1 ppg . LA LAKERS are 22-7 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 68-34 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 150-96 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-15-21 | Bulls v. Nets UNDER 235 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has solidified its defensive play of late as they prepare for post season hoops and nothing changes here today vs the Bulls. Meanwhile, the Bulls continue to play good defense and have held 3 of their L/5 opponents to 99 point ore less. This afternoon Im betting on a continuation of this type of top tier D by both sides in a games that Im betting stays under the the offered total. CHICAGO is 13-3 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. CHICAGO is 12-2 UNDER against Atlantic division opponents this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. Under is 9-0 in Bulls last 9 overall. Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 9-4 in Nets last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, on Saturday games are 42-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 45-18 L/24 seasons for a 72% conversion rate of bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-14-21 | Jazz v. Thunder +14 | 109-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Im betting the Jazz will be treating this game like a night off as postseason basketball approaches. Injuries are always a concern so Im expecting we see alot of bench players getting more minutes than usual giving us value with a ugly home dog in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 8-1 ATS L/9 overall in this series. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse ) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are just 45-82 ATS L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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05-14-21 | Nuggets v. Pistons +9.5 | 104-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Utah played last night and are now on tired legs and with the post season almost here will be careful with their existing roster, so some top line players may get more rest than usual. I know Motown may not inspire bettors, but they are capable of a cover here at home, getting points. Note: Detroit got smashed last time out, 119-100 by the Wolves, but the Pistons have proven resilient this season going 11-1 ATS after a 15 point or more loss and is 16-4 ATS off a home loss this season. NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate thus giving us value from a league wide trends perspective getting points. NBA Road teams (DENVER) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-59 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams (DENVER) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%). are 24-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit Pistons to cover |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 231.5 | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
The Suns have gone over 7 straight times and their L/6 games have eclipsed this offered total. Meanwhile, the visiting Blazers are currently in high octane over drive, ranking 5th in the league on ppg offense and 4th in offensive rating, but just 22nd in ppg defense and a ugly 29th ranking in defensive rating. Looking at current form, and the overall data, it becomes obvious that in general terms that this game should be a high scoring slugfest. Play OVER |
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05-13-21 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Wolves | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Minnesota is a winner in back-to-back contests, including a 119-100 rout of Detroit on Tuesday in which it led throughout and have been playing better of late, but tonight they wont be catching the Nuggets asleep at the proverbial wheel, and will have the full attention of what my power rankings suggest is a superior side. Denvers SRS is 6th in the NBA at +6.03 while the Wolves rank 26th with a -5.41 mark, and even with a recent uptick in positive data are still over matched in general terms. Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. MINNESOTA is 1-11 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 10-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons and 5-0 SU L/5 visits to Minnesota. Nuggets are 21-4-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Minnesota. NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 6-26 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-11 ATS L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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05-13-21 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 218.5 | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Heat have had great success of late pushing the tempo of their games, and as a result have gone over 10 straight times. Im betting that the Sixers if they are keen on winning this game , will have to match the Heats pace and that will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season with the average combined score clicking in at 232.5 ppg.MIAMI is 8-1 OVER in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with a. combined 224.9 ppg scored.MIAMI is 12-1 OVER after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. Philadelphia dating back to last season in their L/68 road games have seen a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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05-12-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 223 | 122-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
The Rockets obviously have nothing left to play for, but an opportunity to upend the defending champs Im betting is something that will motivate them and push them into action. They have been playing a wide open brand of hoops lately and nothing should change here at Staples tonight Note: Houston has combined with their opponents to average of 250+ ppg in tier L/5 games overall. Meanwhile, at this time of year teams like the Lakers are gearing up for the play offs and looking to gain momentum. I know the Lakers D has been key to their successes this season, but they also need to generate some offense , and will push forward here aggressively either out of need or greed which will see this tilt turn into a higher scoring game than the pundits might expect.HOUSTON in 7 games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season have seen a combined average of 245 ppg scored.Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 overall. Play OVER |
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05-12-21 | Spurs +5.5 v. Nets | 116-128 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
The Brooklyn Nets played last night in a revenge tilt vs the Bulls and got the redemption they wanted. Now on tired legs as they play back to back games the Nets could find their hands full vs a hungry Popivich crew that are vying for a play off appearance, and also in revenge mode for a loss back on March 1st to these same Nets. Note: The Nets are 3-9 ATS with not rest last 12 overall at home and 0-5 ATS vs non conference opposition. Also HC Pop of the Spurs is an astute student of the game, and when given the opportunity to avenge a loss vs a foe is 150-78 SU. Spurs are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games.Spurs are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Brooklyn.Nets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 0 days rest. Play on the Spurs to cover |
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05-12-21 | Spurs v. Nets UNDER 233 | 116-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
The Nets continue to play a much better brand of hoops of late as they pay special attention to their defensive responsibilities as the play offs approach. After playing last night the Nets will not be in a run and gun formation anyway and their tired legs could easily see them trying to grind this game down a bit to a slower pace vs the Spurs which should limit wide open back forth action which will relate to a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. Nets are 5-1 UNDER L/6 games. The Nets are 0-11 L/11 UNDER at home off a win in a road game in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 199.1 ppg going on the board. Under is 16-5 L/21 meetings in Brooklyn. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 25-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 28-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-12-21 | Wizards +7 v. Hawks | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
In the Wizards last 16 games they have won 13 times and lost 3 times twice by 1 point margins and once by 3 points. Washington has proved themselves to be a side that deserves respect when taking points and nothing changes tonight in the rematch vs Atlanta from Monday night where they lost a hard fought 125-124 affair. Even with Bradly Beal out there is enough offence off the bench to get the job done. WASHINGTON is 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 4.1 ppg. WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and 12-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls UNDER 233 | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bulls are playing a strong brand of defensive hoops of late holding three straight opponents to less than 99 points, with all 3 affairs generating wins for them. Im betting that because of their recent successes that type of basketball will continue to be played tonight vs the talented high flying Brooklyn Nets which will directly effect the pace of this game. Also with the play offs approaching the Nets have noticed are staring to pay attention to a better brand of defensive hoops that has resulted in the under cashing in 8 of their L/12 overall. CHICAGO is 10-2 UNDER against Atlantic division opponents this season with a combined average of 215 ppg scored. In 33 home games this season the Bulls have seen a combined average score of 220.4 go on the score board. CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 11-3 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, on Tuesday nights are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 30-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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05-11-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 218 | 115-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Clippers are gearing up for play off basketball by playing a top tier brand of D that has resulted in 8 straight unders.With Toronto playing short handed here Im betting Nurse will employ a conservative posture that will see a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. TORONTO is 13-1 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 206.9 ppg scored.TORONTO is 20-7 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg. Play UNDER |
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05-11-21 | Nuggets v. Hornets +6.5 | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The Hornets are right around the edge of being No. 10 seed in this year’s Eastern Conference playoff chase and cannot afford anymore losses and Im betting that will see them leave everything on the floor here tonight vs the Nuggets giving us an edge taking points. It must also be noted that the Hornets have revenge on board for a beating they took in the Mile High city on March 14 which will add to their motivation factors in this spot play. Note :Denver has lost 3 of their L/4 and are on tired legs after back to back games vs Utah and Brooklyn and now playing their 4th game in 6 nights. The home side is 8-0 ATS L/8 meetings in this series. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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05-10-21 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 227.5 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
Golden States Curry has averaged 37.7 per game in his past 15 contests as the Warriors offense goes into warp speed when he is on the floor behind the leagues 2nd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Utah a team that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the league is more than capable of responding with offensive fireworks of their own, which Im betting will deliver a higher scoring affair that will see this totals number eclipsed. Over is 4-1-1 in Jazz last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Warriors/ Jazz 6-0 OVER L/6 meetings . The last 2 meetings this season, have seen 235 and 250 combined points go on the board. Play on the OVER |
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05-10-21 | Bucks v. Spurs +7.5 | 125-146 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
The Spurs are on the tipping point of a play off or new format play in position, and need wins badly and will play with a desperate edge in this tilt. The Bucks are the superior side, but have been less than reliable opposition away from home as is evident by their 14-19 SU road record would indicate. SAN ANTONIO is 5-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons and are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 meetings at home in this series. MILWAUKEE is also just 0-9 ATS against Southwest division opponents this season like San Antonio. MILWAUKEE is 4-12 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season. NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 29-63 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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05-10-21 | Wizards +7.5 v. Hawks | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Washington is very under rated here from a data standpoint having lost on 3 times in their L/16 games with the 3 defeats coming by 1 point two times and 3 points in the other loss. I know Atlanta has really moved up in their respectability status in NBA play, but they are bering over rate here vs a very tough opponent. With revenge on board for a home loss back in the end of January Im betting we see the Wizards in top form and motivated. The Wizards are 12-0-1 ATS L/13 as a dog off a game as a favorite. WASHINGTON is 11-0 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 21-47 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on the Washington. Wizards to cover |
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05-09-21 | Thunder +10.5 v. Kings | 98-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Sacramento beat Oklahoma City 103-99 when they met May 4th in a closely contested game. From a mqtch-up perspective the Thunder are more than capable of covering here. I know the Thunder are near or at the bottom of the league in key stats, but its not like they cant be competitive as was the case recently when they went into Boston and upset the Celtics. So with that said lets just plug our noses and pull the trigger. Note: Thunder are 5-1 with 0/1 rest situation while the Kings are 0-5 ATS on Sunday as a host. OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-1 ATS on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-26 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.. OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-18 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-7 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons SACRAMENTO is 3-11 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 69-109 ATS L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. Play on the Thunder to cover . |
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05-09-21 | Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 215 | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
The Clippers recently completed a three-game season sweep over their crosstown rivals, rolling the Los Angeles Lakers 118-94 on Thursday and its obvious their defense is rolling in top gear, and knowing the Knicks opus operandi is based on top tier defense and nothing changes today as Im betting on a low scoring grinder. NEW YORK in 62 games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average of 211.9 ppg scored. The Knicks are 0-12 UNDER L/12 with rest coming off a loss in which they led by double digits. NEW YORK is 19-8 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 52-24 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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05-09-21 | Heat v. Celtics +1 | 130-124 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
This Im betting will be a hard fought affair that will result in a lower scoring style post season style affair. The Celtics own an edge here from a system vs system perspective vs Miami and matchup well here despite of the Heats upward momentum and the Celtics inconsistent efforts. The Celtics are 12-0 ATS /SU at home with rest after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers last game. Play on the Celtics to. cover (LATE STEAM) |
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05-09-21 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 222 | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 1 h 24 m | Show | |
The Celtics are 16-0 OVER L/16 off a road loss in a in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss of 15 points or more as a road favorite are 27-9 OVER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.
Play OVER |
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05-08-21 | Nets v. Nuggets UNDER 231.5 | 125-119 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
Denver has the 9th ranked ppg defense in the NBA and owns the 26th ranked pace. So needless to say they are fairly methodical in their approach considering their successes. Nothing will change tonight at home in the Mile High city against a talented Nets group that despite of being able to put points on the board in bunches knows playing a better brand of defense as the post season approaches is very important. With that said, Im betting that this game will see some special attention to playing good transitional hoops which will reflect a muted response on the score board then the pundits might expect. BROOKLYN is 8-1 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 24-11 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored in those 35 titls. DENVER is 10-1 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-08-21 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
Houston has been opening up of late, and are off a big time back and forth tilt vs Milwaukee last time out losing by a 141-131 count. However today Im betting on regression from the Rockets offense and energy depletion to rare its ugly head as they play their 5th game in 8 nights. Meanwhile, Utah is off a hard fought tilt vs Denver last night, and will also find them selves playing on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which Im betting produces a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 23-11-1 in Rockets last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. HOUSTON is 25-6 UNDER L/31 vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 22-12 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored. UTAH is 13-5 UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (7 or more PPG diff.) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play UNDER |
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05-08-21 | Rockets +15.5 v. Jazz | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
The Jazz are off a hard fought affair vs the Nuggets last time out and are now in an emotional letdown state and lacking overall energy and Im sure in some ways they are over looking the Rockets. With that said, there is value taking points here with a Houston side that is 11-1 as visiting underdogs of 4 points or more more vs .700 or better opposition. Meanwhile, the Jazz are just 1-5 ATS L/6 after facing the Nuggets. HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS ( in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. NBAFavorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing on back-to-back days are 15-37 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rockets to cover |
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05-08-21 | Spurs v. Blazers UNDER 233 | 102-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Spurs are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game in 7 days and off a game last night. That will effect their pace, vs a Portland side that has allowed their opposition 109 points or less in 4 of their L/6 games. The Spurs are 0-14 UNDER L/14 off a game as a favorite in which they committed fewer than 15 fouls. Under is 7-2 in Trail Blazers last 9 games as a home favorite. Under is 9-3 in Trail Blazers last 12 home games. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 60-28 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-08-21 | Grizzlies v. Raptors +5.5 | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
The Raptors who are 4-0 ATS L/4 may no long er be a championship calibre side, but they are still no pushovers, and are more than capable of being competitive tonight vs the visiting Grizzlies even with injuries and key players out. Grizzlies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Raptors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Toronto is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series as hosts. Grizzlies are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Nurse is 57-35 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of TORONTO NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 18-65 L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to cover |
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05-08-21 | Wizards v. Pacers +3.5 | 133-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Washington continues to play an all out brand of wide open hoops, but after two exhausting game in a row vs Milwaukee and and Toronto Im betting the Wizards hit the wall here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. The Wizards did beat Indiana 154-141 when they played last week, but the Pacers stayed competitive in that tilt, and are more than capable of upending their opponent in the rematch. The Pacers are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 meetings in Indiana. Wizards are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 18-65 L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pacers to cover |
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05-08-21 | Pistons v. 76ers -10 | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The 76ers now on a 7 game win streak will be paying attention here tonight, as they are still looking to secure top seed in the east. Add to that revenge for a ugly DD loss to the Pistons in the Motown the last time these teams met and you now have a situation that bodes well for a beatdown scenario. The Seventysixers are 16-0-1 ATS/16-0 SU as a favorite after being outscored in the paint by at least 6 points last game. The Pistons are 0-15-3 ATS /0-18 SU as a dog coming off a 10+ point win. DETROIT is 1-10 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Play on the 76ers to cover |
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05-07-21 | Knicks v. Suns -6 | 105-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
NY has played some great hoops behind a fantastic work ethic, and chemistry, but the young Suns have matured quickly and have stood up to some of the best teams in the league and prevailed. I know the Knicks are out looking to avenge a 118-110 home loss to the Suns back on April 26th in NY city but my power rankings suggest the Suns are the superior side, and in most circumstances would prevail in a matchup with the Knicks. Also this is NYKs fourth straight road game and they looked pooped last time out in Denver losing 113-97, most probably because of the high octane effort they consistently put out. Meanwhile, the Suns after a night off where they looked asleep at the wheel in a ugly 135-103 loss to Atlanta will be primed to bounce back. Note: NYK is just 1-5 ATS vs Pac division opposition as 8 point underdogs or less. The Suns are 5-0 ATS/SU L/5 in this series.PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Play on Phoenix to win /cover |
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05-06-21 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency , and have failed to eclipse the 99 point threshold in 4 of their L/6 overall while Golden State despite of super star Curry in the lineup are ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency. When these teams played back in the middle of April the Warriors put 147 points on the board vs the Thunder, and now in the return matchup Ok City will out be looking to slow this game down to a crawl which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. Note: In that game where the Warriors pounded 147 points on the board the Thunder shot just over 25% from the Field and just 56% from the charity stripe. Advantage under.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-9 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored in those tilts.OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.2 ppg. These teams have gone under 10 straight times here in Oakland. Play UNDER |
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05-06-21 | Hawks v. Pacers +6 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Atlanta played a hard fought game against a top tier opposition ( Phoenix) last night and are now on tired legs and in emotional letdown spot after recording an all out impressive 135-103 victory. The Hawks never let up and played all out, because of their obvious respect for their opponent which will see them Im betting start slowly tonight vs the Pacers. ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 3-0 SU L/3 at home in this series.ATLANTA is 24-41 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 season. Play on Indiana to cover |
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05-06-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1 | 131-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
The Wizards played a back forth tilt vs the Bucks last night and lost by a 135-134 count and will now both be on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state which makes them susceptible to a down performance vs a Raptors side that has won 8 straight meetings in this series SU. Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Play on the Toronto Raptors to win |
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05-05-21 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 242 | 134-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Washingtons offense remains consistent and explosive and there have been few to any regressions after big offensive outputs like the one they just had against Indiana winning a 151-141 slugfest. The Wizards rank 1st in pace 4th in ppg offense and 29th in ppg defense, Needless to say their style of hoops bases its successes and failures on run and gun basketball with a no prisoners attitude on display and nothing will change here tonight vs a Bucks team that can put a bucketload full of points on the board as well, via a offense that ranks 1st in ppg offense in the NBA , behind the 3rd ranked pace and 21st ranked ppg. defense . After playing last night, the Bucks will be on tired legs, so Washington will push with extreme prejudice, which Im betting leads to an all out back and forth tilt that will see very little defense played. First team to 130 points wins. WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.2 ppg going on the score board. Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this total .Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-0 in Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-05-21 | Grizzlies -3 v. Wolves | 139-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis has struggled of late, losing 4 of their L/5 while Minnesota with Towns back int he lineup are playing much better winning 5 of their L/6. However despite of the divergence in fortunes recently the Grizzlies matchup well vs the Wolves, according to my power rankings and deserve respect here as short favs. Minnesota ranks 26th in the league SRS -6,71 , while Memphis is ranked 13th in SRS, with a +0.96 mark. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. MEMPHIS is 11-3 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 20-9 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Grizzlies to cover |
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05-05-21 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 227.5 | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Atlanta ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency while the Phoenix Suns rank 7th in offensive efficiency and from a head to head stand point Im betting on that efficiency and lack of it on the Hawks part will lead us over the total in this contest. ATLANTA is 9-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 238.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 8-0 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 233.9 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 9-1 OVER versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average 232.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 84-54 OVER L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 56-35 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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05-04-21 | Raptors v. Clippers -9 | 100-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
LA has taken a breather from their heavy schedule of late with a few days off and will be fresh and ready to get back on track after suffering 3 straight losses. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on tired legs as they play their 4th straight road game against quality opposition, which makes them susceptible to exhaustion as this tilt progresses. LA CLIPPERS are 10-0 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with the ppg dif clicking in at just over 22 ppg. The Raptors are 0-10-1 ATS L/11 coming off a win where they scored 15+ points more expected. ( that happened vs the Lakers) Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Golden State played last night against this same Pelicans side and beat them 123-108. Both sides looked motivated, but some exhaustion issues were evident. Im betting both these sides, will once again have a hard time finding their legs here in this late season battle and the combined score will end up on the lower side of the offered total. Golden State has gone under in 6 of their L/8 while New Orleans has gone under in 5 of their L/6. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 56-29 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. |
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05-04-21 | Nets v. Bucks -116 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Bucks have proved they can stand tall against sides like Brooklyn and Im betting they can handle them here again tonight. Note: The Bucks are 21-10 SU at home and this is where they play their best hoops. MILWAUKEE is 31-16 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 11-28-1 ATS in the last 40 meetings. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-11 L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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05-03-21 | Knicks +3.5 v. Grizzlies | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
NYK is the real deal and continue to prove it during a 12-1 SU ATS L/13 run. Meanwhile, Memphis has lost 3 of his L/4 tilts and despite of being viable side, they are not currently in top form and are 14-17 L/31 at home this season and wobbly favorites. NEW YORK is 16-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 23-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Knicks are 17-0 ATS /15-2 SU after allowing at least 50 points in the paint last game. the two losses came by 2 and 3 points. Play on NY Knicks to cover |
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05-03-21 | Warriors +2 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are off three straight road games with the last a grueling OT affair vs the Wolves. Now in a physical and emotional letdown state the Pelicans will have their hands full with a Golden State side that needs wins badly. NEW ORLEANS is 6-14 ATS as a home favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 33-13 L/46 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season . NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 7-31 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 30-6 SU/ 30-5-1 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover |
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05-03-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Wizards | 141-154 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Indiana were clipped 132-124, as 7-point home dogs the last time these two sides met in late March. Now in revenge mode I expect the Pacers to be motivated and to play a strong competitive game. Note: The Wizards are 1-12-2 ATS at home in this series when the Pacers are out looking to get even while the Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SUATS L/5 in this series when in revenge mode for a 7 or more point defeat. NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are just 46-102 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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05-03-21 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 210 | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 9 of their L/11 overall and with nothing left to play for should play looser and just look to pad stats. 'Im betting on Detroit also opening up in the same fashion and for this tilt to eclipse the total. Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 games as an underdog. Over is 21-10-1 in Pistons last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. ORLANDO is 10-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 8-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 233.2 ppg scored. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. Play OVER |
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05-02-21 | 76ers -6 v. Spurs | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Im not a big proponent of laying points with a road side, but their are matchup instances where I feel comfortable enough to do so and this is one of those situations. It must be noted that San Antonio comes home after a grueling hard fought 4 game road trip that concluded with a 143-140 loss to the Celtics in Boston and now exhausted with this being their 8th game in 14 days and in a emotional letdown situation are susceptible to down effort. SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons and is i15-31 ATS after a combined score of 245 points or more. SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games this season. SAN ANTONIO is 4-12 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more. are 26-1 with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 ppg. NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-11 ATS L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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05-02-21 | Knicks v. Rockets UNDER 217.5 | 122-97 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
With nothing left to play for Im betting the Rockets will run here with wreck-less abandon but the Knicks will not allow this game to be wide open and will be out to control the pace. The Knicks own both the top ppg defense and the slowest pace in the league and Im betting their will to make this a grinding affair will outwill the Rockets need to rack up stats. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total. NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 195.5 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a terrible team (25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Blazers -1 v. Celtics | 129-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a big game for both sides, but my power rankings suggest the Blazers matchup well here. The Blazers lost by 1 point the last time these teams played, but with redemption as an added motivational factor the Blazers are the right side. Note: PORTLAND is 26-13 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 26-1 L/24 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Portland Blazers to win |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks -1.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Today I waited to see if Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo would play and he is listed as probable. The last time these top tier teams played the Nets took a closely contested 125-123 victory , but that was with Harden in the lineup. I know the pundits love the Nets, but their biggest weakness remains their defense that allows struggle 117.2 points per 100 possessions and Im betting they are vulnerable in this spot. Meanwhile, The Bucks own a w a +5.9 point differential per 100 possessions, 5th best in the league and are top 10 defense that deserves respect especially here at home. Note: Nets: 1-5 away against Central division sides. Bucks: 6-0 as conference home favs vs .600 or better opponents. NBA Home favorites (MILWAUKEE) - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 54-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 243.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Both sides can score, that is an obvious point. However, this tilt Im betting will be a hard fought physical play off affair as both sides look to send a pre play off message to each other. BROOKLYN is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 207 ppg. MILWAUKEE is 17-5 UNDER in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves +4 | 140-136 | Push | 0 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
When Karl Anthony Towns is in the Minnesota Wolves lineup this Wolves team seem to find cohesion and chemistry and must not be underestimated. I know the Wolves beat the Pelicans the last time they met 135-105, and now the visiting side is looking for revenge, but unfortunately the matchup stats from the last clash tells me a comparatively different story. Like Mick Jagger said in his iconic song, You don't always get what you want. Advantage Minnesota. NEW ORLEANS is 12-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Play on the Minnesota Wolves |
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05-01-21 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 208 | 124-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total should be closer to 212 which gives us more than a 1 possession advantage on this total to the over. MIAMI is 10-0 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-5 OVER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games 36-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-01-21 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Golden State is no longer a team that can just beat up on opponents behind an explosive offense as they only rank 21st in offensive rating and as a result their defense has had to ramp itself up as is evident in ranking 9th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, they now go against a Rockets side that rank 27th in offensive rating. I know both sides like to run at a faster pace their efficiencies and deficiencies dictate uneven proficiency from a offensive standpoint giving us value with an under wager on this offered totals number. The Rockets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a home dog coming off a home win with a combined average of 207.4 ppg. HOUSTON is 21-11 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Pistons +7.5 v. Hornets | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Pistons were dealing with some fatigue issues recently but now with a couple of days rest Im betting they are ready to compete again, especially against an inconsistent side like Charlotte who according to my projections does not deserve to be this big a favorite. Note: The Pistons also have the added incentive and motivation to get revenge for 105-102 loss to the Hornets on March 11. DETROIT is 21-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. DETROIT is 14-2 ATS off a home loss this season.( The Pistons lost last time out and have proven to be a big bounce back side to back when that happens) Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. NBA Road teams (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 114-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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04-30-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Suns | 100-121 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
We have two top tier sides ready to do battle here tonight in Phoenix . However, one team stands out in this matchup as being superior and also being very motivated with double revenge on board and that side is the Utah Jazz who own the leagues best scoring margin at +9.5 PPG and 2nd best in DFG percentage. Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Utah Jazz own the leagues best SRS mark at 9.46 while the Phoenix Suns rank 4th at 5.77. Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 58-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-30-21 | Blazers -1 v. Nets | 128-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
With Irving out, the Blazers Im betting have an edge in this contest. The Nets are also on tired legs after playing last night and have not been good bets in back to back affairs. Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-5 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland to win |
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04-30-21 | Spurs v. Celtics OVER 219.5 | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest. The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers. SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. BOSTON is 21-9 OVER after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder +9 | 109-95 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
The Pelicans enter this game having lost 6 of their L/8 and are a hard fought 114-112 loss vs the Denver Nuggets last time out and could easily be susceptible to a emotional letdown scenario. NEW ORLEANS is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 25-58 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Thunder took a 111-110 win las time these teams met this season) Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-29-21 | Raptors +3 v. Nuggets | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
The Raptors according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Nuggets, and earlier this season gave them a good beating. I know the Nuggets are out looking for revenge, but they are on tired legs and off a grueling affair vs the Pelicans last time out pulling off a 114-112 win and susceptible to a letdown scenario. DENVER is 4-12 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season . Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231 | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Warriors v. Wolves +6 | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in a groove and have won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 and in their current form must be respected as home underdogs vs an over hyped Golden State brand. GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 21-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Warriors are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 Thursday games. Warriors have failed to cover 6 of L/8 at Minnesota. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 7-29 L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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04-29-21 | Nets v. Pacers UNDER 240 | 130-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note: Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-28-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | 101-109 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Suns come home off an exhausting 5 game road trip and will time to get acclimated to home cooking again, and are at a disadvantage vs a Clipper side that would love to send a message to their upstart conference rivals. Note: Suns: 2-13 L/15 home after 5 or more road games. LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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04-28-21 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 213 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-4 OVER in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored. MIAMI is 23-9 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 215 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario for an over wager to cash . My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total. Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite. CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. Borrego is 15-2 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics -6 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight. Boston is off three straight losses and will be primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side that smashed them 125-104 a couple of days ago. BOSTON is 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 115-65 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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04-28-21 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 210 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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04-27-21 | Wolves -1.5 v. Rockets | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Both sides may not inspire bettors but according to my projections the Wolves are the better side, and have been competitive lately with their star Towns back in the lineup winning 3 of their L/5 and showing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the rockets have lost 14 of their L/16 overall and rarely look like their doing anything but going through the motions. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last 3 season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( as a home underdog of 6 points or less this seasonHOUSTON is 7-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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04-27-21 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 235 | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
This number stood out to me from an eye test, and then my projections verified my initial observation . Value to the under. HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better this season. HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 225 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - off a home win against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 26-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Raptors may not be a championship quality team anymore but they still are well coached and have the ability to slow explosive sides the Nets down . After playing last night the Raptors are on tired legs so they wont be in any shape to run and gun here, and with the Nets off a hard fought run and gun win vs the Suns last time out, I expect they will be in a letdown situation , which will also contribute to a lower combined score than anticipated. TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors +6 | 116-103 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Nets are off a big win, against the Suns, last time out , and will now be in a letdown situation vs the Raptors tonight . Meanwhile, the Raptors despite of still not being a championship side are still a capable side, and have been playing better lately and deserve respect as hosts here. Note: Toronto is 5-0 SU L/5 as hosts in this series.TORONTO is 18-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons. Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Play on the Raptors to cover |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 214.5 | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Boston is off a loss last time out and will have little mercy here vs the Thunder tonight. That will have the thunder operating and catchup zone all night which will help this combined score go over the total. The Celtics are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 coming off a road loss where they had at least 30% of their points on threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. BOSTON is 14-4 OVER in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER off a road loss this season. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 54-29 OVER L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |
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04-27-21 | Bucks v. Hornets +9 | 114-104 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Charlotte seems to know how to deal with the Bucks and and have beaten twice this season already and despite of the Bucks being in revenge mode are not viable favs here considering they are barely a .500 team on the road dating back to last season, as they are 17-17 away from home and 11-23 ATS L/24 as visitors. CHARLOTTE is 4-0 SU/ against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 11-0 ATS L/11 10-1 SU off a win as a home dog in which they had 6+ double digit scorers. Borrego is 13-3 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game as the coach of CHARLOTTE. Budenholzer is 17-31 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts as the coach of MILWAUKEE. MILWAUKEE is 2-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 68-105 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Hornets to cover |
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04-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -4 | 96-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis has been a cover machine and they have played quite well of late, but this is a bad spot for them here in the thin air of the mile high city as they play their 7th straight road game and are on now exhausted and on tired legs and very suceptiable to a down effort. |
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04-26-21 | Clippers -3.5 v. Pelicans | 103-120 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
The Clippers still have a chance for top seed in the West and Im betting they will be primed to play down the stretch and especially here tonight in revenge mode vs the pesky Pelicans who defeated them 135-113 back in mid march . Note the Clippers this season when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 10 or more points, 5-0 SUATS the last five opportunities and Im betting the 6th straight comes tonight in the Bayou. The explosive Clippers are also 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS away taking on losing sides , including 3-0 SUATS mark when playing with a redemption on their minds. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. are 127-78 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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04-26-21 | Suns -130 v. Knicks | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
The Knicks have been red hot, winning 8 straight, but tonight Im betting their run comes to an end vs what my rankings suggest is the superior side. The Knicks rank 13th in the league from a SRS perspective with a 1,73 mark, while the Suns rank 4th with a 5.53 which is a huge divergence based on this data. Note: SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Suns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New York.Suns are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. PHOENIX is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season PHOENIX is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 9-31 L/24 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 46-101 L/24 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 20-85 L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phoenix Suns to win/cover |
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04-26-21 | Lakers v. Magic +10 | 114-103 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
The Lakers style of play bases its success or failures on their ability to play a top tier brand of defense, but against good ball handling sides like Orlando that type of hoops does not really give value to being a DD favorite as they the Lakers. Note: NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - good ball handling team - committing 14 or less turnovers/game, after 2 straight games committing 7+ less turnovers than opponents are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.LA LAKERS are 17-35 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 2-10 ATS in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. Play on the Orlando Magic to cover |
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04-25-21 | Kings +8.5 v. Warriors | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Two playoff hopefuls dealing with the ramifications of COVID protocols meet Sunday night when the Sacramento Kings visit the Golden State Warriors for a matchup of Western Conference playoff significance. These sides , both looking for a post season, placings will be primed to play hard, but according to my own numbers this line is bloated considering how rested the Kings are and how important this game is. Kings: 6-1 with /3+ days rest . the Warriors are 1-5 as division home favs of 9 points or less. SACRAMENTO is 27-11 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 9-1 ATS in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Milwaukee since March 1 of last season, is just 17-16 SU and 11-22 ATS away. The last time they were visitors was 10 days ago where they did win and cash vs the Hawks, 120- 109. That may have been an aberration as the Bucks are just 9-16 ATS away in non- division games, and 4-12 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Now with revenge on board it must be noted that the Hawks are 6-1 ATS at home with same-season double-digit loss revenge when out look for redemption from two straight losses vs the same side which is the case here tonight. Also the Bucks are just 1-10 ATS off consecutive home games with no rest going against a foe seeking same-season double revenge (exact). MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons McMillan is 30-12 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game in all games he has coached since 1996. NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more are 69-36 ATS L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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04-25-21 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 233 | 119-128 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
The Suns last time out, looked fatigued from the quick turnaround after playing Philadelphia, were also outr-ebounded 48-38 by the Celtics in 99-86 loss. Im betting that exhaustion will continue permeate today and that they will be more interested in slowing this game down vs the fast paced Nets , to remain competitive which Im betting directly effects the combined score. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Brooklyn. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 93-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for 71% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-24-21 | Wolves +11.5 v. Jazz | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The T-Wolves suffered a frustrating last-second 128-125 loss at Sacramento on Wednesday. Towns scored 26 but missed a shot in the final seconds and despite of a not so flattering overall record are playing much more competitive hoops of late and have the ability to hang tough today vs a Utah side that Im sure is over looking them and playing with star Donovan Mitchell;. Note: Jazz are just 1-7 ATS L/8 as 10+ ppg fav vs division at home. Meanwhile, the Wolves are 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in a division road game. Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Utah.Timberwolves are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or more on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 69-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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04-24-21 | Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers | 109-115 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Detroit was very burned out and rested players last time vs San Antonio and took it on the chin, and now a little bit more rested Im betting their ready to compete again. DETROIT is 24-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% ofr more of their shots this season. DETROIT is 11-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season. INDIANA is 1-10 ATS in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Bjorkgren is 0-10 ATS in home games after a combined score of 235 points or more as the coach of INDIANA. The Pacers are 0-15 ATS L/15 at home after they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers last game. Home teams (INDIANA) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 16-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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04-24-21 | Raptors v. Knicks +1 | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
The Knicks seek their first nine-game winning streak in a little over eight years Saturday afternoon when they host the Toronto Raptors and Im betting they get it. TORONTO is 4-12 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Raptors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. Knicks are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Thibodeau is 22-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW YORK. Thibodeau is 15-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW YORK. Thibodeau is 12-1 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of NEW YORK. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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04-23-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors +3 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Golden State won the last meeting between these teams back on April 12th here 116-107, and matchup well vs the Nuggets. DENVER is 0-8 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. DENVER is 14-23 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Golden State to cover |
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04-23-21 | Cavs v. Hornets -1.5 | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Both team do not inspire bettors but Im betting the Hornets have the edge here a thome. Hornets are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Hornets are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bickerstaff is 6-22 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days as the coach of CLEVELAND. CHARLOTTE is 23-11 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 39-6 L/6 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on Charlotte to win /cover |
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04-23-21 | Clippers -10 v. Rockets | 109-104 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The Rockets are in tank mode and not a viable wager here even if some Clipper stars are rested. The Rockets are 0-18 ATS L/18 at home with less than two days rest coming off a 10+ point loss. HOUSTON is 4-15 ATS as a home underdog this season. NBA Home underdogs (HOUSTON) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game are 24-57 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Clippers to cover |
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04-23-21 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 225.5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Boston has gone under in 10 of their L/15 and will be primed to slow things down vs the high flying run and gun Nets here this evening in revenge mode for a 121-109 loss back in March. This Im betting results in a lower combined score than the offered total. BROOKLYN is 12-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.2 ppg. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 115-68 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 65-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-22-21 | Pistons v. Spurs OVER 216 | 91-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
This total is based on a projection prognosis which is based on how both teams matchup against each other . This one is simple, as my number suggests this total should be closer to 219 giving us a full possession of value. The Pistons are 16-0 OVER L/16 as a 8+ point dog after allowed at least 45 points in the paint and being outscored in the paint last game with a combined average of 235 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-22-21 | 76ers +6 v. Bucks | 117-124 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Both these top tier Eastern Conference sides are coming off losses and on enough rest to have them ready to bounce back here in what Im betting will be a closely contested affair. Also after watching the Bucks lose a hard fought 128-127 affair to the Suns that ended with a controversial call , Im betting they will be in a emotional letdown state and less than 100% mentally because of this, which gives an advantage to the visitings 76ers. Add to that the Sixers have revenge on board for a loss to the Bucks in their previous matchup and will be motivated to perform at top level. 76ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.n76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bucks are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 22-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 12-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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04-22-21 | Suns v. Celtics +3.5 | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Boston catches Phoenix off a hugely emotional 128-127 win last time out vs the Bucks. Thats an advantage for a charged up Celtics team that will be motivated to pull of the upset vs a vulnerable top tier opponent. BOSTON is 11-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 17-7 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 27-13 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.Stevens is 30-11 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of BOSTON. Play on Boston to cover |
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04-21-21 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Minnesota and Sacramento played last night with the Wolves upsetting the Kings as underdogs, now thoroughly embarrassed Im betting they stop tanking for one night and come out of this with a motivated win. MINNESOTA is 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 42-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Kings to cover |
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04-21-21 | Heat v. Spurs UNDER 215.5 | 107-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Miami successes and failures are based on how ell they play defence. They rank 3rd in ppg allowed , and just. 26th in ppg offensive output and the 28th ranked pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio ranks 20th in ppg offence, and 12 in ppg defence behind a 15 ranked pace. With that said, the numbers suggest we will get a game that sees a combined score in the lower range of 215 number being offered. .Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. MIAMI is 15-7 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. The Heat are 0-10 UNDER L/10 going under by more than 20 ppg on average on the road coming off a win. Under is 11-4 in Spurs last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play UNDER |
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04-21-21 | Heat +1 v. Spurs | 107-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
San Antonio have played their worst basketball in the Alamo City as is evident by have notching just 12 victories in their 30 games at home. The Spurs won only twice in a nine-game home-stand from March 22 through April 5 and have dropped four straight in its home building. SAN ANTONIO is 7-18 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 19-7 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 25-8 ATS L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miami to cover |
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04-21-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | 127-137 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
The Knicks are the real deal and they have chemistry. I know the Hawks are the flashier side, but the Knicks tenacious work ethic sets them apart from alot of mid level competition. NEW YORK is 14-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 10-1 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NBA Home favorites (NEW YORK) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards +2 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
The NBA's top two scorers will go head-to-head when Curry leads the Warriors into the nation's capital to duel Beal and the Washington Wizards. Wizards take care of business vs side like Golden State as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Washington has won five in a row and seven of eight and deserve respect here at home vs the Warriors. GOLDEN STATE is 6-14 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. GOLDEN STATE is 6-14 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Brooks is 17-5 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread as the coach of WASHINGTON. NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 6-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 12-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Play on Washington to cover |
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04-20-21 | Wolves v. Kings -3 | 134-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Sacramento ended a 9 game losing streak last time out and now have momentum on their sides vs a Wolves side that has lost 12 of their L/16 games. The Kings also have revenge on board or a 116-106 loss on April 5th. MINNESOTA is 11-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 6-18 ATS against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home favorites of 3 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on Sacramento Kings to win |
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04-20-21 | Nets v. Pelicans -2.5 | 134-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
The Pelicans consistently rise to the occasion when playing top tier sides and Im betting on them doing the same again in this tilt. When their 7th ranked ppg offence is hitting on all cylinders any team is susceptible to being beaten including the Brooklyn Nets. Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 28-1 L/24 seasons for a 97% conversion rate. NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 24-5 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the New Orleans to win |
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04-19-21 | Jazz v. Lakers +6.5 | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
The Jazz are on tired legs and banged up entering this game playing their 3rd game in 4 days with some key injuries to Donavan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert who is he plays will be less than 100%. Meanwhile, the Lakers are also missing their two top players Davis and James, but have come together as a team, behind a top tier brand of defense and deserve respect getting points in this spot play. Lakers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series. Jazz are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 67-102 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies beat the Bucks 128-115 in their last contest on Saturday and Im betting they will be in a letdown spot here in the Mile High city tonight. I know the Nuggets are playing through the loss of Jamal Murray, who tore the ACL in his left knee last week and is out for the season. However, Denver has not missed a beat and have won two straight without its point guard and will be highly motivated in this spot play. The Nuggets are 16-11 ATS in 2020-21 when they are at least a 5-point favorite. Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Denver. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 11-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 1-30 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.7 ppg. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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04-19-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 234.5 | 128-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
The Suns were completely asleep at the wheel in their last trip to the hardwood losing a 111-85 decision at home to the Spurs. Could they have been looking ahead to this top tier tilt? Whatever the situation was, Im expecting a rebound here, and special attention played to playing top tier defensive effort. PHOENIX is 17-3 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The Bucks HC Budenholzer is 111-78 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached with the combined average of 208.5 ppg scored. Its obvious both teams can light it up, but top tier D, will be on display tonight in this EAST vs WEST slugfest. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-19-21 | Thunder v. Wizards UNDER 232 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
The Wizards are 0-12-2 UNDER L/14 at home with less than two days rest coming off a home win in which they never trailed. WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 UNDER in road games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 37-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |