Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-31-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech OVER 124.5 | 74-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 128 giving us substantial value with taking an over wager here. VIRGINIA is 8-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 134.5 ppg scored. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 OVER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 season with a combined average of 156.6 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GEORGIA TECH) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 46-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-30-22 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 240.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
Sacramento played a back forth game vs Denver day before yesterday and took a 127-126 victory. Im now betting they are in a letdown mode , and physically tired and not ready to run and gun here tonight vs a Jazz side off two straight upset defeats . Im now betting the Jazz will be ready to play a better brand of disciplined defensive hoops. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 Friday games.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-2 in Kings last 9 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 116-52 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 80-40 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-28-22 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 235.5 | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My projected total for this tilt featuring Atlanta and Brooklyn comes in at 229 which gives a two full possession value to the under on this offering. Brooklyn ranks 8th in ppg allowed and. operate at the 21st ranked pace in the NBA. Atlanta ranks in 14th in defensive efficiency. Under is 11-4 in Nets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 12-4 in Hawks last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. ATLANTA is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg. BROOKLYN is 34-21 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg. BROOKLYN is 25-10 UNDER after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN/ATLANTA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Notre Dame has been playing soft hoops of late, even when they have a height advantage they seemed unmotivated to be as aggressive as need be. So I wont be surprised if Jacksonville gets alot of second chances in the offensive zone and score above their season average. Additionally, during their last five games, the Irish have allowed teams to shoot 71.6% from the field and 53.2% in the paint. On the flipside Jacksonville has recorded field goal percentages of 49.3% FG and 67%, at the rim . Notre Dame will push the action, because of being in desperation mode after losing 3 straight and should push past Jacksonvilles slower pace. This Im betting see a combined score that hints into the 130s or more. NOTRE DAME is 6-0 OVER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 15 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 152.3 ppg scored.
CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (NOTRE DAME) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 25-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 133.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-26-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 237 | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans have been missing some of their best players, and have stepped up and played quality ball. This Pelicans team has taken part in a lot of back and forth offensive hoops , but it must be noted that they are ranked 6h in defensive efficiency in the league. Meanwhile, Indiana has also played well of late and its their defense that has been the catalyst . Because of added focus to paying attention to defense in transition, they have allowed 112, 108 points in two marquee wins vs Boston and Miami respectively and Im betting that will stick their winning game plan tonight vs another top tier side and because of this Im betting the expected offensive output will not be eclipsed. Pacers are 8-3 UNDER L/11 overall. Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 road games.Under is 17-7-1 in Pacers last 25 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 18-7-1 in Pelicans last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 100-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-35 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-25-22 | Iona v. Pepperdine UNDER 152 | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (PEPPERDINE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-25-22 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 226.5 | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 30 m | Show | |
The Lakers on the road- run and gun with wreck-less abandon and are usually punished defensively because their not focusing on their defensive responsibilities in transition. Overall they rank 2nd in pace in the league. They are scoring an average of 115.2 ppg game this season but rank 26th in in ppg allowed and on the road allow a whopping 121.7 ppg on the campaign. Dallas is the kind of team that can- really roll up points in a hurry against this type of side behind super star Doncic. Im betting on a much quicker pace and a more explosive offensive game than many might expect here on Christmas day. . LA LAKERS in 8 road games where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 232 points per game scored.LA LAKERS are 36-22 OVER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 12-3 OVER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 road games.Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-3 in Lakers last 12 overall.Over is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play over |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks v. Chiefs OVER 49 | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 44 m | Show | |
These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks have played scorched earth all out offensive slugfests in recent meetings going 5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined average score of 62.6 ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the 2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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12-23-22 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 | 128-125 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
The Thunder enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak, having garnered a win vs Portland 101-98 Wednesday to sweep back-to-back games against the Trail Blazers. It was their D, that showed up and played big and now against the run and gun Pelicans Im betting on them proverbially battening down the hatches again behind an improving D, that is now ranked 14th in the league in defensive efficiency. When these teams played on Nov 28 New Orleans took a 105-100 win and another physical battle Im betting is on tonights agenda. Under is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NEW ORLEANS is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a win against a division rival are 28-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 29-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC.
Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg. Play OVER |
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12-22-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Stanford OVER 124 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (STANFORD) - poor three point shooting team (32% or less) against a good 3PT defense 32% or better ), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 28-10 over L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with 130 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (LOYOLA-IL) - in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 38-10 over L/ L/26 seasons witn a combined average of 131.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-22-22 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana State UNDER 155.5 | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Northern Illinois thanks to their D, has struggled lately, and the coaching staff has said, that their D needs to upgraded and attention must be focused on slowing down opponents out of transition . Thats fits into most teams thoughts when in this type of downward momentum situation. Note: N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 129.2 ppg scored. I expect N.Illinois to implement a more concerted effort on D, which will also limit their output offensively, helping us keep this game to the low side of the number. INDIANA ST is 6-0 UNDER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 138.1 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (INDIANA ST) - after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season are 42-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-21-22 | Michigan v. North Carolina UNDER 155 | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC Both these teams could really use a win, and Im betting that this will be a grueling affair and both will pay significant attention to playing a strong defensive brand of hoops in transition and for alot of elbow action in the paint. My projections estimate a score closer to 149 which gives us a significant edge on this Totals offering. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points MICH/ (N CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons. Play UNDER |
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12-21-22 | Northeastern v. Davidson OVER 137 | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
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12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets UNDER 235.5 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
This total based on my own projections should be closer to 231 which gives us a 2 possession value with an under wager. 5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games. MEMPHIS is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season are 213.4 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-20-22 | Montana v. Gonzaga UNDER 147 | 75-85 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Gonzaga is off a run and gun affair in their last game vs Alabama, with a combined score of 190 points going on the board. Im betting on immediate regression here vs a Montana side that has proven they can play strong defense when need be as is evident by allowing 59 or less points to their opponent in 5 of their L/11 games. GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus sub standard passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 135.7 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MONTANA) - red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 53% or better of their shots are 44-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-20-22 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Devils are slumping and have lost their defensive prowess, but because of this need to start o focus on good transitional hockey in D, the coaching staff has emphasized this and Im betting they implement it here against a red hot Carolina that plays.a strong brand of defensive hockey and have shown a propensity for shut down hockey against aggressive offenses like the Devils have brandished . Note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp this season. Carolina is also on tired legs so run and gun hockey is prob out of the question. CAROLINA is 11-1 UNDER in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons Under is 12-4-1 in Devils last 17 overall. Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.Under is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 home game NHL Road teams against the total (NEW JERSEY) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 70%) are 26-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Home teams against the total (CAROLINA) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 23-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 17-7-4 in the last 28 meetings. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Carolina Play on UNDER |
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12-19-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 227 | 121-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City has only eclipsed the total in 1 of their L/10 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, Portland in their 17 road games this season seen a combined average of 219.6 ppg go on the scoreboard. and rank 28th in the NBA in pace. with this being the Blazers 4th straight road game in the L/6 days Im betting they will hold to their usually methodical pace which will help keep this tilt on the low side of the Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. PORTLAND is 29-17 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a ATS win which was the case last time out. .NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 28-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 33-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Oklahoma City. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play UNDER |
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12-19-22 | Panthers v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida enters this game playing tight defensive minded hockey and have seen 7 of their L/9 games stay under the total. Meanwhile, BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons and overall have seen 7 of their L/9 tilts fail to eclipse the total and have allowed an average of just 2.1 gpg in their L/10 trips to the ice. Florida beat Boston 5-2 back on Nov 23rd and now in the followup Im betting the Bruins pay alot of attention to their defensive game in transition as they make sure the same mistakes made in the last meeting dont repeat themselves tonight. Under is 4-0-1 in Panthers last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 road games. Under is 7-3-1 in Panthers last 11 vs. Atlantic. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more, a top-level team (70% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 27-13-9 in the last 49 meetings. Play UNDER |
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12-19-22 | Stars v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Blue Jackets have been very inconsistent offensively this season and in their L/12 games have averaged just 2.33 gpg. Today against a Dallas side allowing only 2.2 gpg in their L/5 and just 2.7 gpg on the road this season, Columbus scoring out-put problems should persist. This lack of production Im betting will effect this combined score to stay under. this offering COLUMBUS is 8-1 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season. Under is 6-0 in Blue Jackets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. DALLAS is 15-6 UNDER in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons . Under is 5-1 in Stars last 6 road games. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 106-50 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate! NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 48-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on UNDER |
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12-18-22 | Oakland v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Oakland is struggling to score and Im betting on Boise State shutting them down , while they themselves will have offensive regression after a big output last time out. BOISE ST is 8-2 UNDER in all games this season. BOISE ST is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Rice is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games off a home win scoring 85 or more points as the coach of BOISE ST with a combined average score of 135.1 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. are 31-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers OVER 37.5 | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. Play on the over |
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12-17-22 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 227 | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Houstons D has been playing well lately, but the run and gun Damian Lilliard Blazers will test that prowess here tonight forcing the Rockets out of their recent comfort zone. I know the Blazers played last night in Dallas, but they are a well conditioned group and more than capable of finding their legs in a back to back situation. It must also be noted because Dallas took such a big lead last night in their win vs the Blazers the Lilliard only played 24 min. So the super star will be fresh tonight and ready to continue his offensive assault. The first meeting this season between these sides saw a combined 236 points go on the board. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 115.4 . My projections estimate that Portland eclipses that average and the chasing Rockets chase their output and help us cash an over ticket. PORTLAND is 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 30-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-17-22 | Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 45.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show | |
LendingTree Bowl - Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL Southern Miss defense can stop run games cold as is evident by having limited the opposition to fewer than 150 rushing yards on average per game this season.That makes me believe Rice despite of throwing more than their share of picks this season will be forced to air the ball out, which will see them also score above the expected output, and see some extra points go up on the board against them because of their atrocious turnover ratios. On the flipside, Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 1,000 plus rushing yards this season for Southern Miss should have a field day on the ground vs a Owls side that struggles against ground attacks ranking 91st against the run, allowing 166.5 rushing yards per game. Southern Miss also has alot of turnovers (22) so some unexpected offense could easily be stymied but go the other way. Sloppy game expected and more points than the lines-makers are projecting to go on the board. Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 vs. S-Belt. RICE is 8-0 OVER in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 62.9 ppg scored. Rices L/24 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored. Over is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games. Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Play OVER |
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12-17-22 | Toledo v. Marshall UNDER 166 | 85-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projected combined score clicks in at 161 giving us top value with this Totals offering. TOLEDO is 18-7 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season with a combined average of 139 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 13-5 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144.8 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 6-0 UNDER ( after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (MARSHALL) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-16-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 237.5 | 108-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Denver scored 141 points last time out and now Im betting on some major regression from an offensive output perspective. Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Im betting his directly effects this total to the under here in this tilt vs LAK. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 101-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-16-22 | Islanders v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The last three most recent meetings between these teams have seen a shutout posted ( 2 by the Isles, and 1 by the Coyotes). an average of 3 total goals were scored in those tilts and Im now betting on a rinse and repeat situation with tow viable goalies expected to be between the pipes (Sorokin vs Vejmelka) Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona. NHL team against the total (NY ISLANDERS) - off a close road loss by 1 goal, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%). are 28-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-16-22 | Blazers v. Mavs OVER 225 | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Portland has won three straight and five of its last six with Lillard leading the way. He is shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 50.7 percent from 3-point range since returning. Im betting he prompts Doncic and company in all out offensive slugfest. Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 overall. PORTLAND is 9-1 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. Over is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games following a straight up loss. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 season for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Play on the over |
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12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts OVER 145 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 148, which gives us value on the over . Oral Roberts has averaged 97.5 ppg at home this season and play a run and gun all out type of basketball that does not pay much attention to defense in transition. I know Missouri State will try to slow down this game, but its not an easy proposition to implement against this type of no prisoners hoops program. MISSOURI ST is 20-8 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game with a combined average of 147.1 ppg scored. ORAL ROBERTS is 8-1 OVER in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 175.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ORAL ROBERTS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 150.7 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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12-15-22 | Stars v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
Dallas has played a heavy schedule of late and Im betting on them using a more conservative game plan out of transition tonight, that should help them slow this game down . This will directly translate into a combined score that will help us cash an under wager. DALLAS is 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.2 gpg scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 UNDER in home games against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 or less power plays/game this season with a combined average of 4.8 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 47-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 22-4 UNDER L/526seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNDER |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 223 | 88-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Minnesota in a recent defeat were bashed by a 133-112 count on Monday when the Wolves saw their opponent shoot 45.7 percent (21 of 46) from 3-point range. The current form of their D, portrays a situation where the Clippers project to score above their current offensive averages. This will aid in overall offensive output projections. Minnesota ranks 2nd in pace, and even without Townsend in the lineup are in all out attack mode which leaves them vulnerable in transition. MINNESOTA is 23-6 OVER after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of those 29 games clicking in at 241.1 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average of 234 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 285-192 OVER L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate with the combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-14-22 | Ohio v. Florida UNDER 143.5 | 48-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Amalie Arena - Tampa, FL My projections make this Total closer to 140 giving us at least one or two full possession edge on this offering from the books. OHIO U is 14-2 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 131.7 ppg scored. OHIO U is 11-2 UNDER in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.7 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (FLORIDA/OHIO U) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45-47.5%) are 82-36 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-13-22 | New Orleans v. Boise State UNDER 142 | 50-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this line closer to 148 which gives us a full two possession value on this offering. Advantage to the under. Boise has allowed 59.3 ppg at home this season, and Im betting New Orleans will be bogged down for much of this game aiding in our under cause. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-11-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 34-28 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 14 m | Show | |
Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just 8-1 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group, as as a result of this are 9-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC. NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs have gone under in their following game in all 6 times this has happened this season. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play UNDER |
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12-10-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Wyoming OVER 142.5 | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Wyoming has average 80.4 ppg in 5 home games this season so far and their opponents LA Tech have average 78.6 ppg on the road. LOUISIANA TECH is 9-2 OVER versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 151.4 ppg scored. LOUISIANA TECH is 9-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 153.2 ppg scored in those 11 tilts. WYOMING is 7-0 OVER in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 154.8 ppg scored.WYOMING is 9-1 OVER in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 150.4 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (WYOMING) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-11 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 153.5 ppg . Play OVER |
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12-10-22 | Radford v. VMI OVER 142 | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. VMI a team that has already eclipsed the 100 point plateau 3 times this season will push the pace here forcing Radford to open up to some extent, which will help us eclipse this totals offering. Radford has proved it can pour down points offensively with recent 80 and 86 point outputs in their last 2 trips to the hardwood. RADFORD is 8-1 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 144.9 ppg scored. RADFORD is 21-8 OVER L/29 when the total is 140 to 149.5. VMI is 14-5 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 155.9 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (VMI) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-11 OVER 26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 153.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-10-22 | Buffalo v. Tulane UNDER 157.5 | 63-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play UNDER |
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12-09-22 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Columbia OVER 152.5 | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams UNDER 43.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th. Game 13 teams like the Rams with a win % of .250 or less, when the Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in 21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.8 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts, NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-08-22 | Kings v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
In their L/8 games overall the Leafs have seen a combined average of 5.65 gpg scored with 6 of those games failing to eclipse the total. Solid goaltending and a more concerted effort on good positional play out of transition has made for tight games . Tonight in revenge mode for a loss suffered to the Kings on the road back in late October Im betting the home side will be very vigilant defensively and ready to shut down an opponent that surprisingly likes to play wide open hockey of late. Under is 5-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 home games.Under is 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 11-4-1 in Maple Leafs last 16 games following a win. TORONTO is 14-4 UNDER against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game this season.TORONTO is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games this season. NHL team against the total (TORONTO) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win where they shut out their opponent are 48-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-07-22 | Bruins v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
The Avs are a really banged up bunch with the injury list being extensive including star Nathan MacKinnon. Being in survival mode against a top tier side Im betting on a very conservative effort out of transition on offense. This is Im betting impacts the Total to the under. Add to that the Bruins top tier D, and we have a situation that favors the under option. COLORADO is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Under is 5-0-1 in Avalanche last 6 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-3-1 in Avalanche last 11 overall.Under is 9-4-1 in Avalanche last 14 vs. Eastern Conference. BOSTON is 7-1 UNDER after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 4.5 gpg. NHL Road teams against the total (BOSTON) - off a close home loss by 1 goal, a top-level team (70%)or more playing a team with a winning record are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-06-22 | Coppin State v. NC State UNDER 157.5 | 72-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Keatts is 13-5 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of NC STATE with a combined average of 139.7 ppg. Dixon is 24-12 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game as the coach of COPPIN ST with a combined average of 139.6 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (NC STATE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Tuesday nights are 28-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 130.5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (COPPIN ST) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 77-33 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-05-22 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 225 | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Orlando has allowed an average of 116.1 ppg at home this season and rank 27th in the league in defensive efficiency and Im betting the visiting Milwaukee Bucks will breach that output here today and for the Magic in chasing fashion to put up enough points for us to cash an over ticket. MILWAUKEE in 25 road tilts versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons a combined average score of 226.1 ppg have gone on the scoreboard. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 239.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-05-22 | Avalanche v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Colorado has seen 9 of their L11 games stay on the low side of the total, while Philadelphia has failed to eclipse 5 of their L/6 totals offerings. Im betting on these trends continuing to favor the under based on matchup projections. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 5-1-1 in Avalanche last 7 road games. Under is 4-0-2 in Flyers last 6 vs. Central. Under is 4-0 in Flyers last 4 home games. COLORADO is 8-2 UNDER against struggling power play killing teams-opp score on 19% or more of chances this season. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLORADO) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 46-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLORADO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 47-17 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-04-22 | Northwestern v. Michigan State OVER 126.5 | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a Total that should be closer to 132 thus giving us value with an over wager here as we have a more than two possession edge based on my numbers. NORTHWESTERN is 10-0 OVER L/10 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite with a combined average of 129 ppg scored. MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 OVER after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 146.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 50-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate with a combined average of 132.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Kings UNDER 6 | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Carolina thanks to a strong defensive style game, have seen 10 of their L/13 games stay ont he low side of the total. Here on the road on tired legs Im expecting a very conservative transitional game plan that will help keep this score on the low side of the offered total. CAROLINA is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) in road games against poor starting goalies - saving 89.5% or less of shots against over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 gpg .
Under is 10-2 in Hurricanes last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 8-2 in Hurricanes last 10 overall.Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a win.Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 Saturday games.Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 road games. Under is 4-1-1 in Kings last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (CAROLINA) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 103-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Play UNDER |
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12-03-22 | St. Mary's v. Houston OVER 118.5 | 48-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TX My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Houston can run and gun and play solid D. We know St.Marys will try to grind this game down to halt in order to be competitive, but Houston will dictate the pace and not allow the Gaels to get into a comfort zone forcing them to open up or be completely embarrassed. This Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair than the linesmkaers are expecting. HOUSTON in their L/11 as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 128.4 ppg .HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER in road games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less since 1997 with a combined average of 143.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia UNDER 52.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering. Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output . GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored. Kelly is 16-6 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored. GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored. CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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12-03-22 | Tenn-Martin v. North Carolina-Asheville OVER 150.5 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Two teams with capable run and gun offense go head to head here this Saturday. . UNC Ashville has averaged 83.5 ppg in 2 home tilts so far this season while Tenn Martin averages 81 points per game overall while allowing 78 ppg on the road. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TENN-MARTIN) - after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 28-4 L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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12-02-22 | North Texas v. UTSA UNDER 70 | 27-48 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
C-USA Championship Game North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering. UTSA is 7-0 UNDER sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager. They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production last week vs the Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 221.5 | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
With top player Cade Cunningham sidelined due to a shin injury, the Pistons are finding it difficult to stay competitive, and tonight the Mavericks knowing how vulnerable their opponents are will be very aggressive especially on offense. This Im betting leads to a fairly wide open affair, that easily eclipses this total. Note: Detroit ranks 29th in the league in ppg allowed defense and 29th in defensive efficiency. Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 13-4 OVER in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. Over is 8-3-1 in Pistons last 12 home games. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after allowing 130 points or more are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with a combined average score of 234.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG).are 72-34 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 230.4 ppg. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play over |
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12-01-22 | Avalanche v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Colorado was beaten up on by the Winnipeg Jets last time out by a 5-0 count. Now awake and in redemption mode I expect a shutdown performance from the road side tonight which will result in a lower scoring affair.COLORADO is 13-4 L/17 UNDER in road games after a huge blowout loss by 5 goals or more in their previous game with a combined average of 4.9 gpg scored. COLORADO is 7-1 UNDER against good offensive teams like Buffalo- 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17%or better pp this season. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-0 in Avalanche last 5 road games.Under is 7-1 in Avalanche last 8 overall.Under is 5-1 in Avalanche last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Avalanche last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 10-3 in Avalanche last 13 Thursday games. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLORADO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 32-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-01-22 | Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky OVER 141.5 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My totals projection is 144 on this total thus giving us a full one possession edge on the number. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-2 OVER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144.4 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 15-4 OVER L/19 as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pick with s combined average of 144.8 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-1 OVER in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 152.6 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 8-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 149.9 ppg going on the board. Over is 4-0 in Penguins last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 overall.Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Penguins last 6 road games.Over is 4-1-1 in Penguins last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 5-1 in Norse last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 9-2 in Norse last 11 Thursday games. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (N KENTUCKY) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 39-11 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-30-22 | New Mexico v. St. Mary's OVER 136 | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. NEW MEXICO is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 165.5 ppg. NEW MEXICO is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite since 199 with a combined average of 145.3 ppg. scored. NEW MEXICO is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite since 1997 with a combined average of 140.1 ppg. CBB Road teams against the total (NEW MEXICO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences are 25-5 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with a combined average of 147.1 ppg scored. Play over |
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11-30-22 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My owns projections estimate a combined score of 227 plus points , which gives us value on this offering .Utah averages 116.7 (4th of 30) while allowing 115.5 (22nd of 30). Meanwhile, the Clippers are essentially on the other side of the spectrum offensively and defensively, but as they showed us last night are reving up offensively and off a 118 output while allowing 112 points in a victory vs the Blazers. On tired legs tonight the Clippers in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City wont have the energy needed to play strong D, and this Im betting helps this combined score eclipse this offering. Over is 5-1-1 in Clippers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 31-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 22-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Utah. Play OVER |
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11-28-22 | Pittsburgh v. Northwestern OVER 127.5 | 87-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Capel III is 24-14 OVER off a home win as the coach of PITTSBURGH with a combined average of 138.6 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 22-3 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.3 ppg scored. teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games are 38-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 130 points going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-28-22 | Golden Knights v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights looked lethargic at times in Friday's 4-2 loss to Seattle, then fell behind 5-0 after two periods of an eventual 5-1 loss and now Im betting they pickup their defensive work here tonight and pay more attention in transition. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets last played this past Friday at home when they were flipped in 3-2 by the New York Islanders. Im betting after an ugly start to their campaign, that a new focus on playing responsible Defensive hockey will continue. VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER after a division game this season with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (VEGAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after a blowout loss by 4 goals or more in their previous game are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 5 gpg scored. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play UNDER |
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11-27-22 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | 84-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Veterans Memorial Coliseum - Portland, OR My projections estimate a combined score of no more than 155 points which adds significant value to us taking an under stance here. This estimate is above long term trend factors and gives us cushion room, but is viable with a 2 or more possession edge factor. XAVIER is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers with a combined average of 139.1 ppg scored. GONZAGA L/19 games against Big East conference opponents since 1997 have seen a combined average of 146.1 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (Xavier/GONZAGA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 140.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | 0-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is 43 or more points are 10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over 9 straight times here in California with a combined average of 52.5 ppg going on the board! Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC. Play OVER |
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11-26-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Texas UNDER 146 | 54-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Leon Black Classic - Gregory Gymnasium - Austin, TX TEXAS is 95-53 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997 with a combined average of 134.9 ppg scored. Under is 43-18 in Longhorns last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 37-16 in Longhorns last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UTRGV) - an excellent offensive team (76 or more PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more are 24-3 UNDERV L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TEXAS) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of 42%, or less hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or better of their shots.91-51 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-25-22 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 237.5 | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate a combined score of 230 . Thus we have value with taking the under in this public centric Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. SACRAMENTO is 27-12 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 34-16 UNDER off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg . NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. NBA team (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 127-72 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Boston. Play on the UNDER |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 59.5 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively. OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games. 80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night. CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show | |
The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall. DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored. Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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11-23-22 | UMass Lowell v. Brown UNDER 145.5 | 73-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UMASS-LOWELL) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 38-8 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of 135.6 ppg scored. Play on the under |
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11-21-22 | Nevada v. Tulane UNDER 145.5 | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this line closer to 140 which gives us two full possession advantage. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TULANE/NEVADA) - in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 45-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with. combined average of 133.9 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52 | 30-27 | Loss | -107 | 63 h 57 m | Show | |
Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However, both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be the Chargers inconsistent offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC. LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board. Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game Game 15 or less road chalk of 6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone 16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog . NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-19-22 | The Citadel v. Butler UNDER 143.5 | 42-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . My projections make this total closer to 140 giving us a full possession edge on this number to the under. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (THE CITADEL) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 35-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combine score clicking in at 135.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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11-18-22 | Buffalo v. Drake UNDER 156 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam - Sports and Fitness Center - Saint Thomas BUFFALO is 11-1 UNDER on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 26-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 144.6 ppg. Play under |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers OVER 41 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Last week Aaron Rogers and the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through an ugly start to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind rookie WR Christian Watson who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed forward momentum as he scored three touchdowns including 8 receptions ( 107 ypg) . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts. With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star RB Henry has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total. My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 60.2 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. Vrabel is 8-1 OVER in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is 5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. LaFleur is 20-9 OVER after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and 3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and 7-0 OVER on Thursdays vs non-division opposition and 11-2 OVER in the 2nd of back to back home games. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
On most nights the explosive offense of the Oilers plays a one way type of aggressive transitional hockey. Im betting nothing changes tonight against a Kings side that is allowing 4.1 gpg on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Kings offense has kept them competitive scoring 3.7 gpg on the road and Im betting they will have to open up here again . EDMONTON is 13-1 OVER against struggling defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.2 gpg scored. LOS ANGELES is 7-1 OVER in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season with a combined average of 7.8 gpg scored. LOS ANGELES is 5-0 OVER in road games after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 8.6 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (LOS ANGELES) - after a division game against opponent after 3 consecutive non-conference games are 54-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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11-16-22 | Texas Southern v. Houston OVER 134 | 48-83 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . Houston scored more than 80 points in in first three trips to the hardwood, and will dictate a faster paced event here that will help us eclipse this offered total. TEXAS SOUTHERN is 16-4 OVER L/20 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game with a combined average of 145 ppg. CBB teams against the total (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 or more shots/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 32-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 157.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams against the total (HOUSTON) - dominant team from last season - outscored opponents by 12 or more points/game, after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games over a 45 game sample size dating back seasons has seen a combined average of 139.9 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | 16-22 | Loss | -114 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending an over wager here. Im betting top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. LA Chargers have cashed on the OVER in 10 of their L/11 non division games when the Totals offering is 51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg. Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games and 7-1 OVER vs NFC West and 12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . SF is 6-1 OVER off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall. LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the OVER |
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11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State UNDER 138.5 | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MISS VALLEY ST) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, team that had a losing record last season are 34-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. |
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11-13-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Cincinnati OVER 143.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. E KENTUCKY is 12-1 OVER in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 160.3 ppg scored.Hamilton is 10-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 as the coach of E KENTUCKY with a combined average of 158 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-12-22 | Red Wings v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
The Wings enter this game having played well but they are banged up and have some key offensive cogs missing, like like Tyler Bertuzzi. With Johnathan Quick in top form of late allowing just 1 goal in his last two games and known as a streaky goalie the Kings should be able to shut the door on the Wings offense which Im betting helps keep this game on the low side of the total. Also after being smashed 8-2 the last time out you can bet the Wings will be paying alot of attention to their defensive transition game. DETROIT is 19-7 UNDER after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored over the last 3 season with a combined average of 4.9 gpg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-11-22 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 220.5 | 93-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My own projections make this total closer to 223 giving us a full possession value on a over wager. (The Bucks are the 2nd best ppg defensive team in the league at the moment while the Spurs are the worst). Im betting the Spurs here on their own home court behind a 5th ranked pace try to get the Bucks out of their comfort zone and turn this game in to a more wide open affair. This Im betting results in this total being eclipsed. Both these sides have a hsitroy of higher scoring non conference affairs. SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 OVER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-23 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg going on the score board. Budenholzer is 27-14 OVER against Southwest division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 235.3 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 45-25 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. with a combined average of 235.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 231.5 | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Boston brings a 21st ranked pace into this tilt against the Nuggets. The Celtics FG conversion rate has been above average to start the season, and thats why in part their output has been near the top of the league, but regression should start to rare its ugly head at some point, and according my projections based on their expected offensive production dip in this tilt, this totals offering is a tad high and should be closer to 228-- giving us value on the under. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. BOSTON is 37-23 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Play UNDER |
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11-11-22 | Penguins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Both these teams can put the puck in the net and both are experiencing goaltending issues. The Pens goaltending ranks 28th with an .870 team save percentage the last couple of weeks. Terry the expected starter tonight has garnered a nasty .867 save percentage over his last four starts. Toronto's current starter Goalie Erik Kallgren owns a sub par .890 save percentage in six appearances this season. Over is 8-1 in Penguins last 9 games following a win. Over is 13-3 in Penguins last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 24-5-2 in Maple Leafs last 31 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Play OVER |
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11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga UNDER 146.5 | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Armed forces Classic being played on deck of USS Abraham Lincoln - San Diego, CA- Winds expected in the 8 mpg range, which will effect shooting and offensive production because of more passing and in close physical basketball in the key. Play UNDER |
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11-10-22 | Western Carolina v. Maryland UNDER 143.5 | 51-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Maryland top tier D, that allowed 49 points against Niagara last time out will be key here to this total not being eclipsed. Willard is 61-35 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 131.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MARYLAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak division 1-A conference are 45-18 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate with a combined average of 136.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-09-22 | UMKC v. LSU UNDER 142.5 | 63-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Road teams against the total (MISSOURI-KC) - off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 30-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-08-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Purdue UNDER 144.5 | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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11-07-22 | Celtics v. Grizzlies UNDER 231.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
I know both these sides can pour down points, but when need be both are solid defensively as well in this battle of top tier sides, Im betting on a more physical type of tilt that will result in a slower pace than the pundits and lines-makers expect based on overall data. the Celtics own the 21 ranked pace in the NBA while Memphis ranks 14th. MEMPHIS is 24-13 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 41-23 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with a combined average of 194.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 42.5 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
.These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard. Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. Note: The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home. Despite of being well rested the Rams lost . NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week. Another interesting trend: Tampa goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides before playing in a neutral site tilt like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed , 20 of 22 times , when the Total offering is between 39 and 49.5 points . Bowles is 12-2 OVER in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West. Play OVER |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of their 7 games games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. AFC East division confrontations have gone 4-21 UNDER L/10 seasons and have gone under 16 of their L/18 dating back 5 season when the Host side is an underdog of +3.5 or more points . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-05-22 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 233 | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks go head to head Saturday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Both of these teams have been taking part in some high scoring events, but my projections tell me that is offered total is a little over blown considering the Pelicans played last night and are on tired legs. The Hawks are much fresher, but Im betting the Pelicans try to slow this game down to a manageable tempo which will in turn help us stay under this offered number. Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-2 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg going on the board. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-05-22 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Two explosive offenses go to the ice today as the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs do battle. Leafs goalie Kallgren has allowed three or more goals in 12 of his 17 NHL games and owns a .875 save percentage and 0-1-2 record in his three outings.Im betting on a repeat of that here today while the Leafs who are picking up the pace offensively as this season progresses should also do damage against the Bruins. Note: In the last couple of weeks, the Maple Leafs have ranked second in high-danger chances per 60 (15.74) and 22nd in high-danger chances against per 60 (13.21). Back in forth action is in play here with an over wager being a viable opportunity for bankroll expansion.TORONTO is 24-11 OVER against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 19-9 OVER against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 8-0 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The last 3 meeting in this series have all gone over the total. Play OVER |
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11-04-22 | Blue Jackets v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
We all know how explosive offensively the Avalanche are, and its now becoming obvious the Blue Jackets D, is atrocious allowing 4.8 gpg in their L/5 trips to the ice. Im betting the Avs take advantage of their vulnerable opponents and for this to end up in a wide open affair as Columbus desperately trys to revitalize a very slow start to their campaign with an all out leave everything on the ice outing. COLUMBUS is 8-0 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 gog scored. COLORADO is 8-1 OVER in November games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.8 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLUMBUS) - after a division game against opponent after 3 consecutive non-conference games are 52-18 OVER L/5 SEASONS FOR A 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 46 | 29-17 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg) ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting it will focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills ranks 29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November. Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Thursday night NFC sides like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston have gone under 10 of the L/12 times with the average combined ppg averaging 35.6 . Thursday non-division away sides like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans off a SU/ATS division loss have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-03-22 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 227 | 129-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, and 12th in ppg allowed and rank 18th in pace. Meanwhile, Golden state is almost the complete opposite, running and gunning behind a fast paced attack. The clashes of these opposites bodes well however, according to my projections for seeing a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. The Magic dont have the overall talent or system to push back hard on the Warriors, and the visitors Im betting after a grueling start to their campaign may treat this like a defacto game off and make a it a more pleasure orientated trip to Disney. Grinder on board. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE L/12 road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or worse) playing a team with a losing record are 65-35 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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11-02-22 | Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 222 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston continues to be inconsistent offensively and tonight against a banged up Clippers side, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed as both teams flow issues lean towards a lower scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.4 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. Play on the UNDER |
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10-31-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 235 | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Jazz grabbed a 124-123 win vs Memphis last time out , and once again face the Grizzlies for the second time in three nights Monday in Salt Lake City. Memphis shot 56.8 percent, but Utah countered by hitting 51.7 percent of its shots. It was a wide open event, but now Im betting on offensive regression. Previous to the Jazz last tilt they saw 3 straight unders, and Im betting on this combined score failing to eclipse this offering. UTAH is 24-13 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games. Under is 19-7-1 in Jazz last 27 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 52-19 UNDER L/26 for a 73% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 93-37 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 235.5 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota getting the job done in a 134-122 victory on Wednesday. Im now betting on regression from a offensive perspective here in game 3 after the last explosion and for this combined score to more closely mimic the first meeting. Note: Minnesota enters after a 111-102 win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with their D being the big difference maker and nothing changes here today as this looks to be a recipe for success. SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons UNDER 230.5 | 114-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
I know both sides have played some fast paced wide open affairs, but both sides are openly speaking about playing better D. Based on my projections this line should be closer to 227 thus giving us value with a full possession edge on an under wager. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored.
Under is 35-16-1 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 18-4 UNDER L/22 after allowing 130 points or more with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (118 or more PPG are 34-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 49 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show | |
These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg while Cardinals rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season. NFL sides with a .800 record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings going against a less than .500 side like the Cards , when the Totals offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. Play on the OVER |
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10-29-22 | Maple Leafs v. Kings OVER 6.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Los Angeles has given up an average 4.33 goals per game this season which is the second-highest total in the NHL and here against a hungry Toronto team looking to get untracked offensively Im betting that average will be breached by the Leafs . Kings Goaltenders Jonathan Quick and Cal Peterson have combined for a lowly .868 save percentage this season. Meanwhile, on the flipside, LA has responded in decent fashion early this season averaging 3.44 goals per game ranking the ninth in the NHL in that offensive category. The Leafs have allowed 3 or more goals in 50% of their games this season, and that number Im betting will be breached again in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. NHLvHome teams where the total is 6 or more (LOS ANGELES) - struggling team - outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after allowing 6 goals or more are 43-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-27-22 | Maple Leafs v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 103 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs rank 24th in high-danger chances against with 13.31, they have a banged up defense and a sub par goalie starting tonight in Erik Kallgren (.886 SVP% and 3.29 GAA) between the pipes. San Jose Im betting does some offensive damage. On the flipside, we all know explosive the Buds can be on offense with an array of talent. Note: Offensively Toronto ranks 10th in high danger chances (54.15%) while San Jose sits 16th (49.76%). TORONTO is 31-17 OVER against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 gpg scored. Play OVER |
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10-27-22 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 218 | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Clippers have gone under in 4 straight games to begin their season, rNKING DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE out , and 17th in pace and ranking 8th in ppg allowed and 6th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone under in 3 of their L/4 overall with a 22nd ranked offensive output despite of a fast pace. The Clippers will be out to slow down the Thunder especially after taking ti on the chin vs Thunder last time out. Im betting on a grinding affair. LA CLIPPERS are 27-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.8 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. ( Oklahoma City upset them last time out) NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 45-13 UNDER L/L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - a terrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 125-75 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Los Angeles has been solid on the defensive end so far this season, and will be primed to slow down their opponents in physical fashion. The Nuggets have run and gun with wreck-less abandon so far this season, but Im betting they will have to start to pay attention in transition, or continue to be blown off the court as was the case vs the Trail Blazers last time out in a 135-110 loss that featured allowing 80 points in the second half . I can guarantee you the coaching staff of the Nuggets will be focused on playing better defense immediately and that will help see this combined score stay on the low side of the offered number. LA LAKERS are 51-31 UNDER in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots. DENVER is 43-20 UNDERL/63 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |