Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State UNDER 138.5 | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MISS VALLEY ST) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, team that had a losing record last season are 34-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. |
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11-13-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Cincinnati OVER 143.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. E KENTUCKY is 12-1 OVER in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 160.3 ppg scored.Hamilton is 10-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 as the coach of E KENTUCKY with a combined average of 158 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-12-22 | Red Wings v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
The Wings enter this game having played well but they are banged up and have some key offensive cogs missing, like like Tyler Bertuzzi. With Johnathan Quick in top form of late allowing just 1 goal in his last two games and known as a streaky goalie the Kings should be able to shut the door on the Wings offense which Im betting helps keep this game on the low side of the total. Also after being smashed 8-2 the last time out you can bet the Wings will be paying alot of attention to their defensive transition game. DETROIT is 19-7 UNDER after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored over the last 3 season with a combined average of 4.9 gpg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-11-22 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 220.5 | 93-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My own projections make this total closer to 223 giving us a full possession value on a over wager. (The Bucks are the 2nd best ppg defensive team in the league at the moment while the Spurs are the worst). Im betting the Spurs here on their own home court behind a 5th ranked pace try to get the Bucks out of their comfort zone and turn this game in to a more wide open affair. This Im betting results in this total being eclipsed. Both these sides have a hsitroy of higher scoring non conference affairs. SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 OVER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-23 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg going on the score board. Budenholzer is 27-14 OVER against Southwest division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 235.3 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 45-25 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. with a combined average of 235.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 231.5 | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Boston brings a 21st ranked pace into this tilt against the Nuggets. The Celtics FG conversion rate has been above average to start the season, and thats why in part their output has been near the top of the league, but regression should start to rare its ugly head at some point, and according my projections based on their expected offensive production dip in this tilt, this totals offering is a tad high and should be closer to 228-- giving us value on the under. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. BOSTON is 37-23 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Play UNDER |
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11-11-22 | Penguins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Both these teams can put the puck in the net and both are experiencing goaltending issues. The Pens goaltending ranks 28th with an .870 team save percentage the last couple of weeks. Terry the expected starter tonight has garnered a nasty .867 save percentage over his last four starts. Toronto's current starter Goalie Erik Kallgren owns a sub par .890 save percentage in six appearances this season. Over is 8-1 in Penguins last 9 games following a win. Over is 13-3 in Penguins last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 24-5-2 in Maple Leafs last 31 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Play OVER |
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11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga UNDER 146.5 | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Armed forces Classic being played on deck of USS Abraham Lincoln - San Diego, CA- Winds expected in the 8 mpg range, which will effect shooting and offensive production because of more passing and in close physical basketball in the key. Play UNDER |
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11-10-22 | Western Carolina v. Maryland UNDER 143.5 | 51-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Maryland top tier D, that allowed 49 points against Niagara last time out will be key here to this total not being eclipsed. Willard is 61-35 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 131.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MARYLAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak division 1-A conference are 45-18 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate with a combined average of 136.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-09-22 | UMKC v. LSU UNDER 142.5 | 63-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Road teams against the total (MISSOURI-KC) - off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 30-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-08-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Purdue UNDER 144.5 | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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11-07-22 | Celtics v. Grizzlies UNDER 231.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
I know both these sides can pour down points, but when need be both are solid defensively as well in this battle of top tier sides, Im betting on a more physical type of tilt that will result in a slower pace than the pundits and lines-makers expect based on overall data. the Celtics own the 21 ranked pace in the NBA while Memphis ranks 14th. MEMPHIS is 24-13 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 41-23 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with a combined average of 194.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 42.5 | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
.These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard. Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. Note: The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home. Despite of being well rested the Rams lost . NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week. Another interesting trend: Tampa goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides before playing in a neutral site tilt like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed , 20 of 22 times , when the Total offering is between 39 and 49.5 points . Bowles is 12-2 OVER in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West. Play OVER |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of their 7 games games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. AFC East division confrontations have gone 4-21 UNDER L/10 seasons and have gone under 16 of their L/18 dating back 5 season when the Host side is an underdog of +3.5 or more points . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-05-22 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 233 | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks go head to head Saturday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Both of these teams have been taking part in some high scoring events, but my projections tell me that is offered total is a little over blown considering the Pelicans played last night and are on tired legs. The Hawks are much fresher, but Im betting the Pelicans try to slow this game down to a manageable tempo which will in turn help us stay under this offered number. Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-2 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg going on the board. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-05-22 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Two explosive offenses go to the ice today as the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs do battle. Leafs goalie Kallgren has allowed three or more goals in 12 of his 17 NHL games and owns a .875 save percentage and 0-1-2 record in his three outings.Im betting on a repeat of that here today while the Leafs who are picking up the pace offensively as this season progresses should also do damage against the Bruins. Note: In the last couple of weeks, the Maple Leafs have ranked second in high-danger chances per 60 (15.74) and 22nd in high-danger chances against per 60 (13.21). Back in forth action is in play here with an over wager being a viable opportunity for bankroll expansion.TORONTO is 24-11 OVER against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 19-9 OVER against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 8-0 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The last 3 meeting in this series have all gone over the total. Play OVER |
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11-04-22 | Blue Jackets v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
We all know how explosive offensively the Avalanche are, and its now becoming obvious the Blue Jackets D, is atrocious allowing 4.8 gpg in their L/5 trips to the ice. Im betting the Avs take advantage of their vulnerable opponents and for this to end up in a wide open affair as Columbus desperately trys to revitalize a very slow start to their campaign with an all out leave everything on the ice outing. COLUMBUS is 8-0 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 gog scored. COLORADO is 8-1 OVER in November games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.8 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (COLUMBUS) - after a division game against opponent after 3 consecutive non-conference games are 52-18 OVER L/5 SEASONS FOR A 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 46 | 29-17 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg) ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting it will focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills ranks 29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November. Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Thursday night NFC sides like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston have gone under 10 of the L/12 times with the average combined ppg averaging 35.6 . Thursday non-division away sides like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans off a SU/ATS division loss have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-03-22 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 227 | 129-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, and 12th in ppg allowed and rank 18th in pace. Meanwhile, Golden state is almost the complete opposite, running and gunning behind a fast paced attack. The clashes of these opposites bodes well however, according to my projections for seeing a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. The Magic dont have the overall talent or system to push back hard on the Warriors, and the visitors Im betting after a grueling start to their campaign may treat this like a defacto game off and make a it a more pleasure orientated trip to Disney. Grinder on board. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE L/12 road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or worse) playing a team with a losing record are 65-35 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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11-02-22 | Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 222 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston continues to be inconsistent offensively and tonight against a banged up Clippers side, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed as both teams flow issues lean towards a lower scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.4 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. Play on the UNDER |
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10-31-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 235 | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Jazz grabbed a 124-123 win vs Memphis last time out , and once again face the Grizzlies for the second time in three nights Monday in Salt Lake City. Memphis shot 56.8 percent, but Utah countered by hitting 51.7 percent of its shots. It was a wide open event, but now Im betting on offensive regression. Previous to the Jazz last tilt they saw 3 straight unders, and Im betting on this combined score failing to eclipse this offering. UTAH is 24-13 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games. Under is 19-7-1 in Jazz last 27 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 52-19 UNDER L/26 for a 73% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 93-37 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 235.5 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota getting the job done in a 134-122 victory on Wednesday. Im now betting on regression from a offensive perspective here in game 3 after the last explosion and for this combined score to more closely mimic the first meeting. Note: Minnesota enters after a 111-102 win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with their D being the big difference maker and nothing changes here today as this looks to be a recipe for success. SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons UNDER 230.5 | 114-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
I know both sides have played some fast paced wide open affairs, but both sides are openly speaking about playing better D. Based on my projections this line should be closer to 227 thus giving us value with a full possession edge on an under wager. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored.
Under is 35-16-1 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 18-4 UNDER L/22 after allowing 130 points or more with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (118 or more PPG are 34-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 49 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show | |
These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg while Cardinals rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season. NFL sides with a .800 record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings going against a less than .500 side like the Cards , when the Totals offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. Play on the OVER |
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10-29-22 | Maple Leafs v. Kings OVER 6.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Los Angeles has given up an average 4.33 goals per game this season which is the second-highest total in the NHL and here against a hungry Toronto team looking to get untracked offensively Im betting that average will be breached by the Leafs . Kings Goaltenders Jonathan Quick and Cal Peterson have combined for a lowly .868 save percentage this season. Meanwhile, on the flipside, LA has responded in decent fashion early this season averaging 3.44 goals per game ranking the ninth in the NHL in that offensive category. The Leafs have allowed 3 or more goals in 50% of their games this season, and that number Im betting will be breached again in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. NHLvHome teams where the total is 6 or more (LOS ANGELES) - struggling team - outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after allowing 6 goals or more are 43-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-27-22 | Maple Leafs v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 103 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs rank 24th in high-danger chances against with 13.31, they have a banged up defense and a sub par goalie starting tonight in Erik Kallgren (.886 SVP% and 3.29 GAA) between the pipes. San Jose Im betting does some offensive damage. On the flipside, we all know explosive the Buds can be on offense with an array of talent. Note: Offensively Toronto ranks 10th in high danger chances (54.15%) while San Jose sits 16th (49.76%). TORONTO is 31-17 OVER against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 gpg scored. Play OVER |
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10-27-22 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 218 | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Clippers have gone under in 4 straight games to begin their season, rNKING DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE out , and 17th in pace and ranking 8th in ppg allowed and 6th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone under in 3 of their L/4 overall with a 22nd ranked offensive output despite of a fast pace. The Clippers will be out to slow down the Thunder especially after taking ti on the chin vs Thunder last time out. Im betting on a grinding affair. LA CLIPPERS are 27-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.8 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. ( Oklahoma City upset them last time out) NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 45-13 UNDER L/L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - a terrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 125-75 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Los Angeles has been solid on the defensive end so far this season, and will be primed to slow down their opponents in physical fashion. The Nuggets have run and gun with wreck-less abandon so far this season, but Im betting they will have to start to pay attention in transition, or continue to be blown off the court as was the case vs the Trail Blazers last time out in a 135-110 loss that featured allowing 80 points in the second half . I can guarantee you the coaching staff of the Nuggets will be focused on playing better defense immediately and that will help see this combined score stay on the low side of the offered number. LA LAKERS are 51-31 UNDER in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots. DENVER is 43-20 UNDERL/63 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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10-24-22 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 220 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Both these teams NYK and the Magic took part in run and gun fast paced games last time out, and Im betting on tired legs and offensive regression taking its toll here tonight in what will see this combined score fail to see this offered number from the lines-makers being eclipsed. Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Thibodeau is 16-4 UNDER versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 202.6 ppg. NEW YORK is 42-25 UNDER as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209 ppg. Under is 14-4 in Knicks last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 6-2-1 in Knicks last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 20-7-1 in Knicks last 28 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this offered total. Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers UNDER 48.5 | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 13 m | Show | |
Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are allowing just 255 yards per game and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game. Play UNDER |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | 16-9 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. NYJ are 8-1 OVER vs opposition off Monday night tilt like Denver. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! Play on the OVER |
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10-22-22 | Sabres v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Vancouver has played some wide open games, of late, but its been a buys early season schedule, and they are now on tired legs and not in any shape to run and gun tonight against a Buffalo side that has allowed an average of 2.5 gpg this season behind solid goaltending . With that said Im betting the combined score does not eclipse this offering. VANCOUVER is 10-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.2 gpg scored. VANCOUVER is 12-3 UNDER in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons for a combined average of 4.7 gpg. BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.3 gpg scored. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (VANCOUVER) - after a road game where both teams score 3 or more goals, terrible team, winning 30% or less of their games in the first half of the season are 38-13 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-22-22 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Astros starter Javier allowed just one earned run ins his last five September/October starts garnering a minuscule (0.32 ERA), Javier didnt get a start in the last series and just came out of the bullpen, but hes going to be the starter today, which gives me confidence in the Yankees have a below average offensive output while hes out there. Meanwhile, Cole goes for the Yankees. The hard throwing righty has allowed just three runs in 13.1 innings during the play offs. The two-time Cy Young finalist is not stranger to top tier post season efforts as is evident by a 2.81 ERA and 11.5 K/9 rate in 16 trips to the hill in the starters role. HOUSTON is 21-9 UNDER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.HOUSTON is 50-22 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. HOUSTON is 37-14 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season.
NY YANKEES are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) this season.NY YANKEES are 22-10 UNDER against AL West opponents this season. Play UNDER |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected. Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall. Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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10-19-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Padres starter SNELL is 11-3 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record) Phillies starter NOLA is 12-5 UNDER in road games this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.9 rpg. PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 6 rpg scored in those 22 tilts. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 4 straight games this season with a combined average of 4.9 rpg . Under is 11-4 in Phillies last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning record. SAN DIEGO is 11-3 UNDER in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season with a combined an average of 6.2 rpg. Under is 9-4 in Padres last 13 vs. National League East. MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO/PHILADELPHIA) - after a combined score of 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 52-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate! Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings. Play UNDER |
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10-18-22 | Guardians v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Yesterday game 5 postponement gives both bullpens and both teams in general a much needed rest period . This Im betting will see a very low scoring do or die battle take place . No pitcher will be given much room or leeway and each pitch will be important. Under is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 vs. American League East.Under is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 overall.Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 playoff games. Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 overall.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 Divisional Playoff games.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 on grass.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play on the UNDER |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show | |
Denver has gone under 10 straight times off a fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also 0-6 UNDER after playing on a Thursday tilt and and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of (38.8 ppg )going on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons. Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-17-22 | Avalanche v. Wild OVER 6.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
The Wild first two games where high scoring affairs losing 7-3 to the Rangers and then took it on the chin again with 7-6 loss to the Kings on Saturday. Considering the defending Stanley cup Champion Colorado Avalanche are on three days rest it makes sense , that they will be in a all out free wheeling form tonight and be ready for a big offensive output which will force the Wild into having t open up or be blown off the ice. This Im betting this leads to a high scoring affair.Over is 5-1 in Avalanche last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 41-19-1 in Wild last 61 home games. Play over |
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10-17-22 | Coyotes v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
The Arizona Coyotes have allowed six goals in each of their first two games , and own the league-worst 51 scoring chances per 60. The explosive Toronto Maple Leafs offense Im betting will do more damage here this evening and for the Coyotes to respond with enough light fireworks to help us eclipse this total. Note: The Buds are ranked 7th in the league in scoring chances per 60 (38.0), and eighth in high-danger chances per 60 (15.67) .Arizona has a league-worst xGA/60 (5.16). Over is 19-6-1 in Maple Leafs last 26 vs. Western Conference. ARIZONA is 15-6 OVER in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.1 gpg going on the board. ARIZONA is 11-3 OVER after playing a game where 8 or more total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 gpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Coyotes last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 8-1-2 in Coyotes last 11 following a loss of 3 or more goals.Over is 7-1 in Coyotes last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 7-1 in Coyotes last 8 vs. Atlantic. Play OVER Im betting Justin Hebert the Chargers top tier QB will have to use his legs and do some scrambling here tonight, against a very strong Denver defense to will consistently be able to squeeze him out of the pocket. Vegas QB Derek Carr rushed for 40 yards vs the Broncos two weeks ago because of consistent pressure that forced him into action. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 108 h 38 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career. Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 49 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Texas shutout Oklahoma last week and the defense is obviously starting to show signs of up trending this season. Also after scoring 49 points last week a natural regression must be expected fro the Longhorns offense, especially in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile , Iowa State no matter what their record is entering this game, have remained a tough side to play against as the defense remains staunch, allowing 10 or less points in 4 tilts and allowing more than 14 points only once this season. Everything points to a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the total. Note: 7 of the L/8 meeting in Texas have stayed under the total. Campbell is 10-2 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in all games he has coached since 1992. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-12-22 | Canucks v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
The last 5 meetings in this series between Edmonton and Vancouver have been tightly played low scoring affairs with no more than 5 combined goals going on the board. All 5 of those tilts went under the set total and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight. Play on the UNDER |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Lafayette goes with a back up QB against a Marshall defense that ranks 13th in total defense and allows just 281 yards per game. Im betting they struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the the flip-side the visitors, has played a fairly solid brand of D, allowing only 1 of opponents to breach the 21 point plateau against them, and Im betting their stoppers find a way to control the Thundering herds offensive attack . Advantage to the under. LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.8 ppg scored. LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored. Under is 7-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 games following a straight up loss. Under is 15-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 21 games in October.Under is 39-15-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 55 conference games.Under is 13-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 27-11-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 39 games overall. Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Play UNDER |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Two eastern conference rivals Im betting will play a disciplined defensive tilt here tonight and depend on their top tier goal tending to keep this game very competitive and low scoring. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Reigning Reigning Vezina Trophy winner Shesterkin has a 2.00 GAA and .941 save percentage in nine starts against the Lightning and is expected to be between the pipes tonight in both sides NHL opener . On the flipside , Andrei Vasilevskiy who was tied for NHL lead with 39 wins and posted a 2.49 GAA last season get the nod for the Bolts. . He owns a 3.23 GAA in the regular season at New York. Under is 5-0 in Lightning last 5 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 10-1 in Lightning last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 vs. Atlantic. Play UNDER |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 34 m | Show | |
KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair, the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win. The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. Reid is 21-6 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265 or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City. Play UNDER |
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10-08-22 | Rays v. Guardians UNDER 6 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
These teams took part in a low scoring affair yesterday with Cleveland pulling off a 2-1 win. With two quality hurler and bullpens on the diamonds today Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation and a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (TB/ CLEVELAND) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 106-84 UNDER L/5 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 20-9 UNDER revenging a one run loss to opponent this season. Rays starter Tyler Glasnows last 3 starts vs the Guardians has seen a combined score of 2,2,3 runs total scored. Tampa Bay lost all 3 by 2-1, 2-0, 3-0 counts. Mckenzies last two starts were wins vs the Rays with 2-1, and 3-2 margins of victory both staying under the total. Guardians starter MCKENZIE is 12-2 UNDER in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.2 rpg. MCKENZIE is 13-3 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.3 rpg. Play UNDER |
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10-08-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma UNDER 65.5 | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 46 h 54 m | Show | |
The Red River Shootout rivalry may not be as explosive as the lines-makers are suggesting according to my projections. Texas and Oklahoma could be changing starters this week — Oklahoma to Pitt transfer Davis Beville because of the head injury suffered by Gabriel, and Texas from Hudson Card to Quinn Ewers, who started the first two games of the season. Changing QBs no matter who considered the starter can sometimes hamper offenses to start clicking again and thats what Im betting on here. A high scoring affair is not out of the question, but according to my projections as mentioned above a combined score that eclipses this number is unlikely. CFB team against the total (OKLAHOMA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average combined ppg clicking in at 47.5 . CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 42-9 UNDER with a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-07-22 | Nebraska v. Rutgers OVER 50.5 | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
Nebraska’s is registered at a lowly No. 124 overall defense and Rutgers Im betting piles up some points here well above their season average . I know the Scarlet Knights defense has been staunch but still projects to allow between 20 and 27 points according to my estimates which will help us easily eclipse this total. Note: Nebraska put 28 points and 35 points on the board against both their Big 10 opponents this season Northwestern and Indiana. RUTGERS is 6-0 OVER in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.3 ppg scored. RUTGERS is 14-4 OVER off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. (Ohio State pummeled them last week) CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (RUTGERS) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 22-3 OVER L/30 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 7 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
I know we have to quality pitchers on the hill here today, but both don't have alot of big league play off game experience and both these teams have offenses that can take advantage against hurlers with post season jitters . Seattle has scored 44 runs in their L/8 games ( 5.5 rpg) while the Jays have scored 39 runs in their L/6 games (6.5 rpg). TORONTO is 20-9 OVER in home games after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 21-9 OVER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. Play over |
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10-07-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
NATIONAL League Playoffs - Wild Card - Best Of 3 - Game 1 In 12 trips to the hill since coming over the Cardinals , Quintana has garnered a 2.01 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. He enters this game and post season play having allowed just one run over 25.1 innings of top tier work and Im betting his top shelf effort continues here today. Meanwhile, the Mets, starter Wheeler has been in top form since returning from the injured list three starts ago. During that time he has surrendered just one run on nine hits with opposition batters hitting just .177 over a span of 15 innings. Note: Wheeler faced the Cardinals in back to back starts, going deep and strong with both starts seeing him record seven scoreless innings both times. WHEELER is 14-5 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored. THOMSON is 16-5 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. These two teams have combined for seven or less runs in each of their last five head to head meetings in this series. Rinse and repeat scenario now on board. Play UNDER |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard --- Arizona is also 10-1 OVER L11 vs NFC South with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored. Panthers are 7-0 OVER L7 vs NFC West with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. |
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10-02-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Blue Jays are crushing the BoSox this season going 15-3 against the bean town crew. They’ve won eight consecutive tilts in the season series by a combined score of 77-22 count and Im betting that run wont end today behind a offense that has been on fire -Toronto’s owns .828 OPS over the last 15 days which ranks second in MLB and will also help power this total to be eclipsed . Jays starter GAUSMAN is 17-7 OVER after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.2 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 games following a loss. Note: Wacha the Red Sox starter has looked tired of late, and Im betting the explosive Jays bats take advantage of the veterans fatigue and make is 14 overs in 19 meetings this season vs Bo/sox. The last time the Jays faced Wacha back in late June, they smashed him for four runs in a 6-5 win - rinse and repeat and with extra mustard added on in the rematch. Play OVER |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons UNDER 48.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 12 m | Show | |
These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories that saw them go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk of 1 or more points like the Browns have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER versus any NFC opponent when the totals offering is 54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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09-27-22 | A's v. Angels OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
OAKLAND is 15-6 OVER in September games this season with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. LA ANGELS are 60-40 OVER in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) - bad offensive team ( 4.2 or less runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 30-8 OVER L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Royals starter GREINKE is 10-1 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Joey Wentz the Tigers starter 6.75 ERA at home this season while Greinke owns 6.36 ERA on the the road this season. MATHENY is 9-0 OVER in road games after allowing 12 runs or more in all games he has managed since 1997 which was the case last time out in a 13-12 win. KC has scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their L/6 games and with their offense flourishing Im betting on more explosive action here today with momentum in full swing. KANSAS CITY is 91-60 OVER vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season. Over is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 games following an off day.Over is 9-2-1 in Royals last 12 during game 1 of a series. DETROIT is 39-19 OVER after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival . Over is 9-1-1 in Tigers last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (KANSAS CITY) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less ) (AL), after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 30-8 OVER L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts UNDER 51 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 20 m | Show | |
Colts QB Ryan threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to Jacksonville last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs and Im betting things dont get much better vs a under rated top tier Chiefs D. Colts lack of attack will be a contributing factor in this game staying under the set total. Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 games overall.Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC. These teams have gone under in 4 straight meetings with the average combined ppg clicking in at 34.8 . INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for btettors with the average combined score clicking in at 40.5 ppg. Play on under |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State UNDER 71 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 64 h 5 m | Show | |
Oregon State has been explosive so far against sub par defenses, but today vs a top tier USC D, they will Im betting regress substantially which will directly have on effect of this total . Im leaning heavily on this number not being eclipsed. Jonathan is 6-0 UNDER in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of OREGON ST with a combined average of 55.7 ppg. OREGON ST is 12-3 UNDER in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game with a combined average of 49.1 ppg. USC is 11-2 UNDER in road games after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 44 ppg. CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OREGON ST) - after scoring 50 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-2 UNDER L/5 seasons with the average ppg scored coming in at 54.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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09-24-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Cubs lefty starter MILEY is 9-1 OVER vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) MILEY is 22-11 OVER in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored in those 33 games. Over is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 9-2-1 in Pirates last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter like Miley. PITTSBURGH is 21-9 OVER in home games when playing on Saturday over the last 3 seasons. J. Oviedo owns a 7.71 ERA at home in limited action this season, but my projections estimate he gets lit up here this Saturday. MLB Home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (PITTSBURGH) - bad offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less ) (NL), playing on Saturday are 34-9 OVER L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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09-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 18-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Phillies starter GIBSON is 31-13 OVER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. GIBSON is 21-7 OVER in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. GIBSON is 18-4 OVER in home games in September games in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-1-1 in Phillies last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague home games. Blue Jays starter Stripling has pitched well for the Jays but according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup all that well vs the Phillies sometimes explosive batting order. TORONTO is 7-0 OVER in road games after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored. Over is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. a team with a winning recor MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 36-8 OVER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Philadelphia. Play on the OVER |
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09-18-22 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 47 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 16 m | Show | |
Defending super bowl champion Rams looked asleep at the wheel in their opening game loss by a 31-10 count to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. Note:NFL teams like LAR who scored 10 or less points in a Thursday night tilt have gone under 16 straight times in their follow game dating back 5 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg going on the board. Atlanta also lost which is important as NFL contests have gone UNDER 28 of their L/36 opportunities when both sides are of a home defeat in their last game . Everything points to this being a low scoring affair as the early season rust and attention to strong Defensive play remains important. Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 road games. LA RAMS are 16-4 UNDER in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on fieldturf.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. . NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points are 46-16 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-18-22 | Yankees v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Entering yesterdays action the Yankees bats are back after a long slump and have now scored 38 runs in their L/5 trips to the diamonds (7.6 rpg). Im betting they bounce back again in a big way after only 1 run yesterday. Meanwhile the Brewers bats have also come alive scoring 28 runs in their L/5 tilts entering Saturday and have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of those games. (They scored 4 runs yesterday in their 4-1 win) Cole and Alexander are viable pitchers but my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the offenses will fair well here. Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 5-0-1 in Brewers last 6 inter-league home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or worse ) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 35-8 OVER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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09-18-22 | Panthers v. Giants UNDER 44 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show | |
Im betting the Giants will continue push the ball on the ground with Barkley and play a slow grinding type of football in the trenches. With Carolina looking offensively vulnerable and their D which was no 1 in the NFC last year being the key to their successes and failures Im looking at beatable totals numbers as a critical money making factor this season . With that said my projections make this this number a viable to the under investment option NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32.9 ppg scored and have actually gone under in 12 straight homes games with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board . NY GIANTS are 15-4 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.7 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 8-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. Giants have gone under 7 of their L/8 times as fav or dog of less than 3 points. Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Carolina has gone under 9 straight times with NO Saints on board in their following tilt which is the case this week. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS/ CAROLINA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 32-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-17-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Bradish and Berrios have ERAs over 5.00 during this campaign and the last 6 times these to hurlers have faced each other the total has been eclipsed. Altogether 11 of the 14 meetings in this series have gone over the total and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today .TORONTO is 25-10 OVER ( in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. Play OVER |
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09-17-22 | Rutgers v. Temple OVER 43.5 | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 52 m | Show | |
Rutgers destroyed Temple last season by a 61-14 count l, and another projected explosive offensive output Im betting is on todays agenda, giving us an edge on a over investment cashing. Rutgers has already put 66 points on the board this season. Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 home games. CFB Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RUTGERS) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games are 25-5 OVER L/30 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (TEMPLE) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 50-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville OVER 56.5 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Louisville QB Malik Cunningham has owned FSU’s defense the last two seasons and Im betting he helps his team land some big offensive punches against what is still not a complete FSU D that struggled to contain the QB vs LSU .Florida State defense ranks outside the top 90 in Passing Success Rate and Passing PPA Allowed. . On the flipside FSU’s offense matches up really well against Louisville’s weak rush defense and does more than enough damage here with the option being key for big downfield offensive gains behind improved QB play and 3 dimensional run game. Louisville HC Satterfield and former QB is 15-3 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. Over is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Louisville. Play on the OVER |
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09-15-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
D Lynch the Royals starter owns a 9.22 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill along with an equally ugly 2.048 WHIP allowing 14 ERS including 5 HRS in a 13.7 inning span. My projections estimate that he matches up poorly vs the Twins and should be lit up again. He is 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three lifetime starts at Minneapolis. Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile, Bundy the Twins starter owns a 5.25 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill , while allowing 23 hits in 14.3 innings of sub par pitching and is set to be beaten around more than his two previous pitching Twins predecessors in the first two games of this series . BUNDY is 23-11 OVER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (KANSAS CITY) - terrible offensive team ( 3.6 or less runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, after a loss by 4 runs or more are 31-7 OVER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 37-18-4 in the last 59 meetings in Minnesota. Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Play on OVER . |
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09-12-22 | Angels v. Guardians OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Angels southpaw Reid Detmers (5-5, 3.67 ERA) will make his 22nd start of the season on Monday for Los Angeles. He is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts versus Cleveland. Meanwhile, another Left-hander Konnor Pilkington (1-2, 3.99) will make his 10th start (14th appearance) of the season for Cleveland. He hasn't started a major league game since July 23, spending most of the past two months at Triple-A Columbus. (Rust at the MLB level is a factor here) According to my projections both these pitchers do not matchup well vs the opposing sides batting orders aiding in my synopsis for this tilt to see more runs scored than the offered number from the lines-makers. Over is 4-1-2 in Angels last 7 overall.Over is 10-4-3 in Angels last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-2-2 in Angels last 9 road games. Over is 7-2 in Guardians last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (LA ANGELS) - terrible offensive team ( 3.6 or less runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, after allowing 9 runs or more are 31-7 OVER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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09-11-22 | Ravens v. Jets UNDER 45 | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 103 h 44 m | Show | |
Baltimores QB Jackson is still in contract negotiations, and may not be 100% focused and with key receiver Marquis Brown gone and Sammy Watkins also playing somewhere else this season, may not have as many options to move the ball as he once had. Offensive adjustments are now in play and could easily stymie the Ravens output early on this season and more importantly today. Meanwhile, NYJ banged up starting QB Wilson may not play this week or see limited action. No matter what materializes Im betting the Jets remain limited in their offensive prowess, and could easily have problems against a supped up Baltimore D. Everything points to this combined score not eclipsing the offered number. BALTIMORE is 22-10 UNDER L/32 in road games against AFC East division opponents with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a road favorite.Under is 11-4 in Ravens last 15 road games NY JETS in their L/6 September games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 36.8 ppg go on the score board. Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games in September. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (/BALTIMORE /NY JETS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 30-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg total clicking in at 40.9 ppg. Play UNDER |
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09-10-22 | Mississippi State v. Arizona UNDER 57.5 | 39-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
We. know how explosive Mississippi State can be with an air raid offense that never quits. But Arizona is use to explosive passing attacks and are currently well suited to deal with it. Meanwhile, I expect the Wildcats to really look to slow this game down via the running game, which Im betting makes for a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers current offering suggests. Under is 16-6 in Bulldogs last 22 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 21-8 in Bulldogs last 29 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. MISSISSIPPI ST is 24-10 l/34 UNDER after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. Last week they won 49-23 ,but the coaching staff were emphatic about shoring up the D this week. Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games. CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 MISS STATE /ARIZONA) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 52.9 ppg. Play UNDER |
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09-10-22 | UNLV v. California OVER 48 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield went 21 of 25 for 356 yards and threw four first-half touchdowns in last weeks 55-21 win over Idaho State and Im betting he does some damage again, while the Rebels D, will take some punishment from a PAC 12 offense that matches up well agains them. Note: Bears Cal QB Jack Plummer went 23 for 35 for 268 yards with three touchdowns and Im betting on even more consistency here as they get the rust off . Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Golden Bears last 4 games in September. Over is 38-18-1 in Golden Bears last 57 non-conference games. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CALIFORNIA) - team that had a losing record last season, with just 9 or fewer total starters returning are 39-98 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 54.2 ppg. CFBeams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UNLV) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 49-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 53.2 ppg. Play OVER |
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09-06-22 | Aces v. Storm OVER 165 | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
SEATTLE is 6-0 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season with the average ppg hitting in at 175 ppg. |
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09-05-22 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Colorado has scored a total of 8 runs in their L/6 games overall and are obviously struggling offensively in a big way entering this game against the Milwaukee Brewers. All 6 of those games have gone under the total and more of the same lack of production will help keep this combined score on the low side of the offered number. Ryan Feltner the Rockies righty starting pitcher has seen his L/3 trips to the hill go under the total with combined runs of 5 , 4 and 7 combined runs going on the score board. Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 7-2-2 in Brewers last 11 during game 1 of a series.Under is 11-5 in Brewers last 16 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. COLORADO is 18-8 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons.COLORADO is 30-16 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams where the total is 11 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 36-8 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams where the total is 11 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 71-35 L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Colorado. Play UNDER |
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09-04-22 | Blue Jays v. Pirates OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 35-7 OVER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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08-30-22 | A's v. Nationals OVER 8 | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The Nationals will start right-hander Erick Fedde (5-8, 4.88), who will make just his second appearance of August. FEDDE is 21-8 OVER in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.6 rpg going on the board. Left-hander Cole Irvin (6-11, 3.16 ERA) will get the start for Oakland. Irvin lost four consecutive starts before his no-decision Wednesday vs the light hitting Marlins. Cole owns a 4.73 road ERA and according to my pitcher vs batting order matchup power rankings does not matchup well vs the Nationals . I know the Nationals offense has been stagnant but they have a chance to bust out here today giving us value for an over wager to cash. Over is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games following an off day. WASHINGTON is 29-13 OVER in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored.Over is 5-2-1 in Nationals last 8 during game 1 of a series. MLB Road teams (OAKLAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 34-7 OVER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play over |
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08-24-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
White Sox starter GIOLITO is 9-1 OVER with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. GIOLITO is 16-5 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GIOLITO is 20-8 OVER in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. The Pale Hose righty enters this game with a 7.20 ERA in his L/3 trips to the mound and looks vulnerable to being lit up again vs a sometimes explosive batting order. . Giolito L/3 outings have all gone over the offered total. Meanwhile, Baltimores stater Watkins, owns a 4.35 ERA at home this season in 9 outings, allowing 46 hits in 39 plus innings of work with a low strikeout rate (21). Hitters are making contact consistently and the White Sox are the kind of team that can make him pay for his beachball type offerings. Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 15-7-4 in White Sox last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 9-2-2 in Orioles last 13 during game 2 of a series. MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE/CHI WHITE SOX) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%), playing on Wednesday are 106-54 OVER L/25 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |
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08-23-22 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
NYM starter Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.36 ERA) is not 100% due to back spasms that caused his exit after two innings on Aug. 16 in Atlanta. There are reports of a bulging disc in his back which is not a good omen for him entering this game. Walker despite of positive win loss record still owns a ugly 6.97 ERA in his last five starts and against a Yankees team that might be gaining momentum with two straight wins looks like he could face some turbulence tonight. When he leaves this game, he will be backed by an average bullpen. Meanwhile, Bronx Bombers starter Frankie Montas (4-10, 3.87 ERA), who has a 9.00 ERA in three starts since being acquired from the Oakland A's, makes another start today. Montas allowed six runs in six innings on Thursday against Toronto in his home debut and according to my pitcher vs batting order rankings does not matchup well vs NY Mets batters. Montas is backed by bullpen that has struggled mightily of late and is looking tired. Everything points to a higher scoring affair that eclipses this offered total. Over is 12-4 in Yankees last 16 games following a win. Over is 6-1-2 in Mets last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 15-5-2 in Mets last 22 interleague road games. Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in New York. |
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08-22-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
The Chicago White Sox have seen alot of low-scoring tilts in recent weeks as is evident by having eight or less combined runs scored in 14 of their past 18 trips to the diamonds for a (.780) conversion rate to the under. Im betting on another low scoring affair as both the White Sox and Royal send pitchers with viable form to the hill. The White Sox Kopech in 22 starts this season, has garnered a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The righty in his his L/ 7 starts, owns a viable a 3.08 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP and top tier .303 xwOBA, .210 xBA and a .365 xSLG during his current campaign. Add to he has pitched well vs the Royals this season, registering a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHP in two quality starts. KOPECH is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 4.3 rpg scored. KOPECH is 11-3 UNDER vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored. Meanwhile, Royals starter Lynch has been up-trending lately recording a 3.18 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last 8 starts. In two starts against Chicago, Lynch is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here in what promises to be a constipated offensive output by both sides. MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 62-33 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Under is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 during game 1 of a series. Under is 7-2 in Royals last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings.Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City. Play UNDER |
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08-20-22 | Mariners v. A's OVER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Right-hander Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.51) is the scheduled starter for the Mariners,. The southpaw is winless in his last seven starts overall, during which his ERA has gone up from 2.61 to 3.51 and Im betting he continues to regress. The predominately fast ball hurler has a very significant hard hot rate and Im betting he gets lit up more than the lines-makers estimate here today. Meanwhile, A's right-hander James Kaprielian (3-7, 4.33 ERA) goers to the hill knowing he owns a 5.40 ERA in eight games, including five starts, in his career against the Mariners. He registered a xERA ( 4.79) and a xFIP ( 5.13). He is also predominately a fastball pitcher something the Mariners offense excels against +16.7 rv). Everything points to total being eclisped. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 55-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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08-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
The Yankees offense has sputtered of late as is evident by having been blanked five times in their last 13 games and have been held to three runs or less 12 times in the past 15 trips to the diamonds. Today here against Toronto starter White, who is set to make his third start since being acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline. The Jays new starter has allowed four runs and nine hits in 9 1/3 innings , against the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians. Im betting he will continue to uptrend here vs the slumping Yanks offense. Meanwhile, Yanks starter Cole has allowed one run on nine hits in 13 innings over his past two starts and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well vs the Jays . I know the Yanks bullpen has looked tired lately but Im betting on Cole going deep and helping keep the combined score on the low side of the Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 vs. American League East.Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play |
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08-19-22 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
White Sox starter Lynn has been in decent form lately, but the last time he faced the Guardians in Cleveland, he allowed eight runs on nine hits in just ugly four innings of sub par work. Lynn has also not pitched well on the road this season as his is 0-3 record along with a 7.46 ERA in five away starts would indicate. If he fails, he has an exhausted and ravaged bullpen to back him. Note: Yesterday the Astros put 21 runs on the board against the White Sox. Meanwhile, McKenzie, the Guardians starter owns a 0-2 record along with a nasty 7.28 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) vs. Chicago. Yes he pitched decently against them this season, but according to stat regression charts I keep the sometimes powerful Pale Hose batting order should catch up to him in this matchup. CHI WHITE SOX are 16-7 OVER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better this season with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Over is 16-6-4 in White Sox last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 3-1-1 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. CLEVELAND is 13-5 OVER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season with a combined average of 8.9 rpg scored. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Play OVER |
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08-15-22 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
White Sox starter CUETO is 15-4 OVER in home games in August games in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. CUETO is 26-11 OVER (+14.8 Units) in home games vs. poor base-running teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.5 rpg scored. Cueto has given up 21 hits over 14 innings in two starts this month and Im betting Astros batting order lights him up and helps us eclipse this total. Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 3-1-1 in White Sox last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. I know the Astros starter J. Urquidy has been hot but it must be noted that the CHI WHITE SOX are 11-3 OVER in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. ( Astros starter J. Urquidy qualifies) Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 55-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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08-14-22 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | 0-6 | Win | 105 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
The recent performances of Bassitt (9-7, 3.39 ERA) and Wheeler (11-5, 2.63) project to a lower scoring affair here today between visiting Milwaukee and their hosts the St.Louis Cardinals. In four starts during August , these two top tier hurlers have combined for a 4-0 record along with a minuscule 0.64 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 28 innings. Im betting on both starters to go long and strong here and for the combined score of this tilt to stay on the low side of the totals offering. Note: Bassitt is 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies. Wheeler, , is 4-2 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 starts against his former club. ST LOUIS is 13-4 UNDER vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7 rpg scored. Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 overall. Under is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 home games. Under is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings. Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in New York. Play UNDER |
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08-11-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Cleveland starter Plesac is 0-4 L/4 overall with a 7.04 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. He has also struggled against the Tigers in the recent past past as is evident by his last four outings against Detroit, Plesac has garnered a a 4.22 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP and Im betting things don't change here today. Meanwhile,Right-hander Garrett Hill goes to the hill for Detroit. This kid in six starts , is 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP and according to my power rankings does not matchup well vs the Guardians batting order leading me to a projection of +9 runs games going on the board when incorporating bullpen activity. CLEVELAND is 37-23 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.5 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 13-4 OVER after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 10 rpg. |
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08-09-22 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 7 | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
Yankees hurler Cole has garnered a 7.00 ERA in his L/3 starts and his L/3 starts vs the Mariners have all gone over with the average rpg average clicking in at 11.7 rpg. Mariners expected starter Castilo owns a 3.64 ERA at home with 2 of his L/3 vs the Yankees going over the total, with the combined average of his L/3 starts logging in at 10.33 rpg -(10, 8, 13) combined runs. Im betting on at least 8 runs going on the board in this tilt . NY YANKEES are 15-3 OVER vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season. Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League West. Over is 11-1 in Yankees last 12 games following a win.Over is 14-2 in Yankees last 16 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. SEATTLE is 19-7 OVER when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 5-0-2 in Mariners last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 5-1-2 in Mariners last 8 overall.Over is 5-1-2 in Mariners last 8 on grass.Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 53-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle. Play OVER |
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08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.61 ERA) is expected to start for the Mets against another right-hander Justin Dunn (0-0, 0.00), who will be recalled from Triple-A Louisville to make his Reds debut as well as his first major league appearance since June 2021.Dunn, who opened the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain before being optioned to Louisville July 24, is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in eight minor league starts this season and looks like cannon fodder for the Mets batting order here today which will aid us in our over investment option cashing. On the flipside the Reds have shown improvement of late and on the season are moving into a positive mass formation , and are 5-1-1 in their L/7 series matchups, behind a offense that has averaged 5.4 rpg in their L/7 games overall. Note: Reds starter DUNN is 8-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. NY Mets starter BASSITT is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.2 rpg scored. Over is 16-5 in Mets last 21 during game 1 of a series.Over is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 CINCINNATI is 35-18 OVER after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 overall. Play OVER |
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08-07-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
We have two viable pitchers on the hill with the Padres Darvish and the Dodgers Anderson. Both these hurlers are backed up by top-10 bullpens. The Dodgers are first in reliever xFIP @(3.53), while the Padres are seventh in reliever xFIP @ (3.70). My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest pitching has the edge tonight and should provide us with a under wager cashing. ROBERTS is 27-11 UNDER after 7 or more consecutive wins as the manager of LA DODGERS with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.Under is 7-0 in Dodgers last 7 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 12-5-3 in Dodgers last 20 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-3-2 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 14-6-5 in Dodgers last 25 home games.Under is 11-5-2 in Dodgers last 18 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 13-6-3 in Dodgers last 22 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. DARVISH is 22-5 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.3 rog scored. Under is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 during game 3 of a series. Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 37-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. MLB Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 48-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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08-04-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars UNDER 30.5 | 27-11 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 60 m | Show | |
Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio This is lowest totals offering in the HOF game since 2004. The last 9 HOF games have seen the under go 7-2, going under the offered total by 6.2 points per game.. |
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08-03-22 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
NY Yankees starter COLE is 11-2 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Mariners starter Castillo. SEATTLE is 32-18 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored.
My projections estimate these teams will combine for +8 runs . (Top tier pitching matchup or note I still estimate these offenses get us over the hump and deliver and over wager for profit. MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 101-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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08-01-22 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
In a matchup of right-handers, Antonio Senzatela (3-5, 4.90 ERA) will start for the Rockies on Monday against Mike Clevinger (2-3, 3.38). The L/3 starts that each of these pitchers have seen action in when these teams go head to head have seen this total eclipsed. Senzatela- 11, 11, 9 runs go on the board in his L/3 vs San Diego and Clevinger, 8, 19, 14 runs click in on the scoreboard vs Colorado. Im betting both these hurlers will help contribute to another combined score that goes over this offered number. Over is 5-2-3 in Rockies last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Clevinger. Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Senzatela. COLORADO is 8-0 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. SAN DIEGO is 42-26 OVER )vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored. Over is 8-3 in Padres last 11 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego. Play OVER |
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07-31-22 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
In seven career appearances in New York, Royals starter Greinke is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA. I know the veteran hurler has pitched well recently, but according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings the NY Yankees explosive batting order matches up well against him and severe damage is something Im betting they induce on the Royals starter. Meanwhile, NYY starter Montgomery is 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA over his past seven starts since getting a win in Toronto on June 17 and is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against the Royals. Over is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings.Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in New York. Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games following a win.Over is 11-1 in Yankees last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 home games |
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07-30-22 | Brewers v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Red Sox have allowed four or less runs in three of their last five games, and on the flip side have only averaged 3.4 runs per game in those five tilts. Yesterday they lost 4-1 and Im expecting that pattern to continue here vs visiting Milwaukee today which bodes well for a under cashing for us. Under is 14-3-2 in Brewers last 19 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 28-10-3 in Brewers last 41 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bosox starter Pivetta. MILWAUKEE is 38-19 UNDER L/57 vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored. MILWAUKEE is 41-21 UNDER in road games against AL East opponents with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored. BOSTON is 29-18 UNDER after a loss this season with a combined average of 8.5 rpg scored. Under is 9-4 in Red Sox last 13 vs. National League Central. MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (BOSTON/MILWAUKEE ) - in an inter-league game, in July games are 75-26 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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07-29-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas starter PEREZ in 9 in road games this season. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 8.9 rpg scored. PEREZ in 8 games on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record) have seen a combined average of 9.5 rpg scored. Perez is 7-6 with a 4.01 ERA in 21 career games (17 starts) against the Angels. LA ANGELS are 23-9 OVER in home games after being shut out in a loss to a division rival with a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. ( Angels were shutout yesterday) Texas has averaged 5.2 rpg vs LHP starters like Perez this season. Patrick Sandoval has garnered a 5.14 ERA in his L/3 starts and looks vulnerable here again tonight. Note:This month has been particularly bad for Sandoval, who is 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA in four starts. My projections estimate 8+ runs scored here making this viable over wager. Play OVER |
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07-27-22 | White Sox v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Colorado has struggled against RHP this season averaging just 4 rpg vs orthodox hurlers, and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does matchup well vs Pale Hose starter Giolito . Meanwhile, Rockies starting thrower Senzatela despite of not being in good form, has pitched decently at home this season, garnering a 3-2 record and a 4.02 ERA and matches up well vs a White Sox batting order that is very inconsistent and not used to his stuff. COLORADO is 34-16 UNDER in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 41-27 UNDER vs. poor base-running teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Under is 8-0-1 in Rockies last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 23-8-1 in Rockies last 32 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 11-4-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 34-15-3 in Rockies last 52 interleague home games.Under is 37-17-2 in Rockies last 56 interleague games.Under is 47-22-4 in Rockies last 73 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 8-3-1 in White Sox last 12 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 21-8-5 in White Sox last 34 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. Under is 40-19-6 in White Sox last 65 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. CHI WHITE SOX are 101-67 UNDER when the total is 11 or higher since 1997. MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (CHICAGO WHITE SOX/COLORADO) - in an inter-league game, in July games are 68-26 L5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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07-26-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
The Giants are slumping especially defensively and with their pitching and bull pen and have now allowed 37 runs in their L/6 games overall. With the Dbacks bats showing life recently scoring 7 runs or more in 3 of their L/4 games Im betting the Giants are breached again, whihc will significantly help get is over the total . SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs this season with a combined 13.3 rpg. ARIZONA is 51-29 OVER vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10 rpg scored. MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ARIZONA) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or less ) (NL), after a win by 4 runs or more are 47-14 OVER L/25 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts are 99-49 OVER L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate! Play OVER |
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07-25-22 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
The Pirates have averaged 2.9 runs in their L/8 games overall but their starting pitchers have a 2.65 ERA in the last seven road contests. So Im betting on more of the same here today and also betting this will contribute to a lower scoring affair. CHICAGO CUBS are 21-7 UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO CUBS are 18-7 UNDER after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 22-11 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.PITTSBURGH is 17-7 UNDER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. 5 of the L/6 meeting have gone under the total. Play UNDER |
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07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves OVER 9 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
The Halos enter this game having allowed 6 or more runs in 6 of their L/8 games and have allowed 31 runs in their their L/4 trips to the diamonds which averages out to just under 8 runs per game. My projections estimate the Braves will score 6+ runs here today vs Detmers ( 5.26 Road ERA ) and company. Note: Atlanta has averaged 5.7 RPG vs LHP this season and the Braves have scored 24 runs in their last 4 tilts and 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 12 games overall. Atlanta starter Anderson owns a 5.26 ERA at home this season and Im betting the Angels do enough damage in coordination with the Braves explosive offense to get us over the set total. SNITKER is 32-19 OVER after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games as the manager of ATLANTA with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter like Atlantas starter Wright. Over is 8-2 in Angels last 10 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 7-2-2 in Angels last 11 vs. National League East.Over is 19-7-7 in Angels last 33 during game 2 of a series. Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 inter-league home games. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. MLB Road teams (LA ANGELS) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 33-7 OVER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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07-24-22 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | 6-0 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Baltimores righty starter Kremer. Over is 10-2 in Yankees last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Cortes the Yanks starter despite of some good numbers could easily be rusty as this is first start since the all star break. Hes the type of pitcher that needs alot of innings to stay loose. Over is 13-3 in Yankees last 16 vs. American League East. Over is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 overall. HYDE is 26-6 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season as the manager of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 12.6 rpg scored. BALTIMORE is 14-2 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored.HYDE is 12-3 OVER vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game in the second half of the season as the manager of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. BALTIMORE is 8-0 OVER vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. Over is 20-8-1 in Orioles last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NY YANKEES are 10-1 OVER vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. Play OVER |
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07-22-22 | Angels v. Braves OVER 7 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
The Angles have allowed 6 or more run in 4 of their L/6 leading up the all star break and despite of having a top tier hurler on the hill tonight in Ohtani, they remain vulnerable defensively and in their bullpen. Before the all star break Atlanta won 5-4 last Thursday, 8-4 Friday and 6-3 in the Saturday matchup and Im betting the offense continues its stability here and helps us get over the set total. Meanwhile, the Angels offense has shown some flashes of brilliance, and according to my pitcher vs power rankings matches up well here vs Morton and company. Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 27-11-1 in Braves last 39 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Halos Ohtani. Over is 7-2 in Angels last 9 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Braves Morton. Over is 6-2-2 in Angels last 10 vs. National League East. MLB road teams (LA ANGELS) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 32-7 OVER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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07-17-22 | Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
In 14 trips to the hill this season, Royals starter Bubic is 1-6 with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP and looks like cannon fodder for this sometimes explosive batting order. note: When he leaves this game Bubics backup crew dating back to June 1st, ranks 22nd in the league in ERA, 25th in BA, 18th in SLG and 25th in wOBA. ( The Blue Jays are averaging 4.25 runs scored per game L/20 trips to the diamond). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays starter Berrios, could easily get lit up a team that has been consistent offensively, as is evident during their last 15 games , where they are averaging 4.53 runs per game. Berrios is 7-4 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP this season, and Blue Jays’ bullpen is ranked 24th in the league in ERA, 20th in BA, 22nd in SLG and 19th in wOBA since June 1st. So according to the performance data both pitchers and bullpens are in sub par form, and a probable boatload full of runs is gives us an edge on cashing an over wager. TORONTO is 8-1 OVER after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span this season. Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 during game 4 of a series. KANSAS CITY is 23-12 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Play OVER |
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07-16-22 | Yair Rodriguez v. Brian Ortega OVER 4.5 | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
07-16-22 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 8 | 10-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Marlins - M. Meyer-R vs Phillies - R. Suarez-L Only twice in their L/12 games have the Marlins scored more than 4 runs and nothing changes today against left hander Suarez and his bullpen. The Marlins have struggled against LHP this season averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's explosive offense has suddenly gone quiet of late, scoring more than 3 runs only once in their L/7 trips to the diamonds . The saving grace for the Phillies sort of speak has been their pitching and D, as they have allowed more than 4 runs just twice in their 11, including 4 shutouts during that strong run suppressing span. Key stats:LAST 10 GAMES: .189 batting average, 3.00 ERA,. Phillies: .212 batting average, 3.03 ERA. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road.The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games.he total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home. Play UNDER |