Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #103 Wednesday 8* Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Bobcats, at least in early wagering through Tuesday evening, are the popular choice. Of course this makes sense as Ohio University has rolled 3 straight teams heading into this game and also the Bobcats have had the upper hand in this series going 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. However, in the Redhawks are a very dangerous home underdog here. This is a rivalry game and means a lot to Miami-Ohio even though they have a sub-par record on the season. The Redhawks want this game badly and Ohio U is truly in a classic lookahead spot here as the Bobcats have a huge game on deck against Buffalo. The Bulls entered Tuesday night's game versus Kent with a 5-0 record and, of course, it is hard for the Bobcats not to get caught looking ahead. For the Redhawks their full focus is certainly here and I also like the fact that Miami-Ohio has played the tougher schedule this season in terms of comparing these two teams. While it is true that Ohio U has held their last 3 opponents each to just 14 points, the Redhawks have averaged 37 points per game their last 6 games and have not been held below 30 in any of those games. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS this season when coming off a conference game and 12-6 ATS the last 2+ seasons as an underdog. Miami-Ohio is 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The Redhawks also have the rest edge here as they played last week on Tuesday while the Bobcats played on Thursday. I expect an upset but will grab the "insurance" with the FG + the hook in this one. 8* MIAMI-OHIO |
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11-06-18 | Kent State +22.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - When you are a huge underdog, you welcome all the help that you can get from Mother Nature. In this case, this game at Buffalo is offering plenty of help based on the weather forecast. The Bulls, as you would expect for a MAC team, play in a rather small home venue. That means that when the winds are whipping through there it can create havoc for the passing and kicking game. Winds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph range on Tuesday night in Amherst in the Buffalo area. I love the big dog in a spot like this catching more than 3 TDs. The Golden Flashes have been playing a little better in recent weeks. One of their biggest weaknesses on the season is pass defense but, again, based on the strong winds forecast for Tuesday night, Buffalo is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot. In comparing these two teams, they are nearly equal in terms of the ground game both on offense and defense. The big edge the Bulls would have is the passing game but, again, that is going to be at least somewhat (if not significantly) impacted by the weather in this one. The Golden Flashes have played better in recent weeks even though they've had a road-heavy schedule (they finish the season with two home games). Kent State is only 1-3 SU their last 4 games but two of those three losses came by just a single point. Another key here is that Buffalo is in a sandwich spot. The two teams closest to the Bulls in the MAC East standings are Miami-Ohio and Ohio U. With Buffalo off a key win over the Redhawks last Tuesday and having a huge game on deck with the Bobcats next Wednesday, this is a "tricky" scheduling spot for the Bulls. The Golden Flashes are playing hard for head coach Sean Lewis. At the age of 31 he is the youngest head coach in the nation and has brought a lot of positive energy to the program and they are heading in the right direction despite their unimpressive W-L record. Another key to the value here is that Bulls linebacker (2nd in the NATION in tackles last season) Khalil Hodge is out for the 1st half of this game due to a targeting suspension. Look for the Golden Flashes to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* KENT STATE |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Though it may seem tough to back a team off 3 straight losses, going contrarian is absolutely the way to go here. Indeed, the Titans have lost 3 straight games but 2 of the 3 losses came by 1 point. That said, there is some solid line value here with grabbing the points. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a dog. Also, the Titans are on a long-term 6-0 ATS run in Monday night football games. When Tennessee enters a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games, the Titans have gone 5-0 ATS! The Cowboys have covered just 1 game in their last 5 contests. Also, 1 of their 3 SU wins this season came by just 2 points. Again, the key point being here that there is value with having the points in this one. Both teams are very hungry as they each are coming off a bye week that followed a losing effort in their most recent game. All that untapped energy now has been building for extra time and I look for a tight, physical contest. That is precisely the type of game where, more often than not, having those points on your side proves to be key! Note that the Titans are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game as a dog of more than 3 points against an NFC foe that has a losing record! Also, under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 4-9 ATS when off a loss to a division rival in their prior game. Not only is Dallas off a loss to the Redskins, they have a big game at Philly on deck Sunday night. Grab the points. 8* TENNESSEE |
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11-04-18 | Packers +6 v. Patriots | 17-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - While it is true the Packers are going all the way from a game on the West Coast to one on the East Coast, it is also true that the Patriots are coming off a Monday night game. The point is that the short rest for New England really negates any edge they would have had based on the Green Bay situation. Also, not to get too technical but, the fact is that with this being a night game, going from the West Coast to the East Coast loses some of its problem factor. As for the match-up here, I love the fact that the Patriots had a very fortunate cover last week at Buffalo. The Pats won the game by 19 points but outgained the Bills by only 54 yards. Now instead of facing a Bills team with a very tenuous back-up QB situation, the Patriots face one of the game's best in Aaron Rodgers. Also, you know that Rodgers (and the entire Packers team) is going to be extremely hungry here. Not only did they lose late at LA last week, they also suffered a fumble on the final kick-off from the Rams. It was a horrible gaffe and part of what cost that kick returner his spot on the team as he was released after that! The fact of the matter is that the Packers had plenty of time to try and get into field goal range...especially with Rodgers at the helm. As a result, there is simply no discounting the hunger that this Green Bay team has coming into this game. The Packers want this game and it is with good reason that the odds makers opened this one up with NE as less than a TD favorite. Overall the Packers pass defense ranks much better than the Patriots does. As for the offense, Green Bay holds the overall edge there as well on the season. You can see why I like getting a hungry dog like the Packers when they've got numbers like this to support them as well! There is also an interesting ATS stat here that fits perfectly. The Packers, under head coach Mike McCarthy, with last week's cover at the Rams improved to 10-1 ATS when they face an opponent that is off back to back away games. LA was off of 3 straight road games last week and note that the Pats are off B2B road games heading into this one. Grab the generous points here as an outright upset certainly would not surprise but I love the insurance of the points in this one! 8* GREEN BAY |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints +2.5 | Top | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - When an 8-0 team opens up at nearly a pick'em line it is not a mistake. However, the markets usually jump all over these types of situations and, sure enough, that is precisely what happened here. LA has gone from roughly a pick to a -2.5 as of Saturday night and I love the value we're getting here with the Saints. How many teams go undefeated in an NFL season? It is RARE as you know and, the point is, even though this is only the half-way point of the season, you know a loss is likely coming for LA sooner rather than later and this look likes the perfect spot for it! The Saints are on a roll and I know they were out-gained significantly by the Vikings last week but, the point is, New Orleans continues to find a way to win and their confidence is sky-high and they are at home for this one! A lot of factors going in their favor here. Also, for a FIFTH straight week, the Rams are playing in a different city. Seattle has gone from Seattle to San Francisco to Denver to home in Los Angeles and now right back on the road again at New Orleans. The Saints are on a 6-0 SU run and 5-0 ATS run so they are the ideal team to step up and knock off the Rams here on Sunday. Also, New Orleans is 6-2 ATS their last 8 as a home dog. The Saints have a long-term reputation for stepping up in games against winning teams. Not only did they knock off the Vikings last week but also the Redskins early this season. In fact New Orleans entered this season 12-1 ATS in games against NFC foes with a winning percentage greater than 66.6% and I look for another cover here as I do expect the upset win but definitely will grab the points for insurance. With last week's win and cover against a Vikings team that was on a winning streak, the Saints are now 14-3 ATS under head coach Sean Payton when they're on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games and also facing an opponent on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Keep in mind, though the Rams are 8-0 SU on the season they've covered just once in their last 5 games. Great home dog value with the Saints in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-04-18 | Falcons +2.5 v. Redskins | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - The Falcons have an edge here coming off their bye week. The Redskins are off a big divisional battle with the Giants last week. Washington is in an ugly 2-8 ATS when they are coming off a divisional game and facing an NFC opponent. The Redskins are also 0-6 ATS in games where they are favored by more than one point against an NFC South opponent. Washington, under coach Jay Gruden, is also a disastrous 1-9 ATS when they are a home favorite against an opponent off a home game. Of course the Falcons, prior to their bye, got the win over the Giants at home in Atlanta and New York rallied for the cover in that game. In other words, there is some additional line value here because of the non-covering result in that game for Atlanta. The Falcons, under Dan Quinn, are 9-2 when they are an underdog after being a SU winner in their prior game. The Redskins defense has been strong overall this season but they rank only in the middle of the pack against the pass. That is an issue here as the Falcons strength on offense is their passing game as it ranks as one of the best in the NFL. The Redskins passing attack ranks as one of the worst in the league and I feel Washington is over-valued at this point in the season with their 4-2 record while the Falcons are much better than their 3-4 record is showing the betting markets. The result? Big value! 8* ATLANTA |
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11-03-18 | Notre Dame v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:15 ET - The Fighting Irish are 8-0 SU on the season but are 3-4 ATS their last 7 and truly are over-priced here. Notre Dame is known for sliding at this point in the season and this certainly could be "upset week" for them as they are just 3-5 SU (and 1-7 ATS!) the past two Novembers. Conversely, the Wildcats are in their most relished role. As an underdog, Northwestern is now 10-3 ATS their last 13 and that includes 4-0 this season! 3 of the 4 this season were outright upset wins! The Wildcats are also a long-term 11-3 ATS as home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and 9 of those 11 wins were outright upsets! Northwestern also is known for staying hot once they get hot! The Cats enter this game having won 4 straight and they are 9-1 SU and (8-2 ATS!) their last 10 when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Ever since losing RB Jeremy Larkin for the season (career ended) this Wildcats team has bonded tremendously. They lost (but covered) their first game without him in a hard-fought 3-point loss to mighty Michigan and they've since won 4 straight games! Of course there will be plenty of Notre Dame fans here but certainly it still is not the same as the Wildcats having to face the Fighting Irish in South Bend. That said, I also like the fact that we've got some more technical data supporting this play. ND is 3-10 ATS the game after facing Navy. Notre Dame is also just 1-5 ATS when on the road after scoring more than 35 points and now facing a team that is playing with revenge. The Irish are also on an 0-5 ATS run as a favorite of more than 6 points against a Big Ten team! 10* NORTHWESTERN |
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11-03-18 | Utah -7 v. Arizona State | 20-38 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #379 Saturday CFB 8* Utah Utes (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 4 ET - Utah just wrapped up a dominating month of October as they won all 4 games both SU and ATS. Now the Utes eye revenge at Arizona State. Last year, the Sun Devils knocked off the Utes in Salt Lake City and it is time for payback here. The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams by a margin of 20 points or more and I am forecasting another road rout here. The Utes are catching ASU at the perfect time to get a big road win. The Sun Devils are off a revenging win over a USC team that was quite banged up heading into that one. Give ASU credit nonetheless but lets not forget that the Sun Devils entered that game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. All 4 losses came by 7 points apiece. Coincidentally, 7 is the exact line on this game in most places as of Friday afternoon but I certainly am not posting this expecting a push. The Utes won their 4 games in October by an average margin of 24 points per game. In comparing these teams the Utes have a large edge on defense. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass. Also, the Utes are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've entered a game on SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Arizona State is 3-6 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) when off a win versus a Pac-12 foe. The Sun Devils are a long-term 10-17 ATS in home games with a posted total between 52.5 and 56 points. Grabbing a red hot road team that is running the ball extremely well and also has the vastly superior defense and that is also seeking revenge is absolutely the way to go here. 8* UTAH |
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11-03-18 | West Virginia +2 v. Texas | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - The Longhorns are off a loss at Oklahoma State. I won't be surprised to see Texas come out flat in this one after "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Cowboys being their first Big 12 loss of the season. It was no fluke as the Horns were outgained by 100 yards by OSU. Also, note that Texas was outgained in their wins over TCU and Oklahoma as well. Simply put, I feel that the Longhorns are a bit over-rated right now. As for West Virginia, they are truly flying "under the radar" right now as the Mountaineers are 6-1 SU on the season and, other than one embarrassing effort at Iowa State (the lone loss), they've played extremely well. The Mountaineers average margin of victory is 26.3 points per win in their 6 victories. West Virginia is 7-3 SU (and 8-2 ATS) as a road dog of 3 points or less their last ten! Look for a typical November fade from the Longhorns here (2-6 ATS last 8 in November) after last week's loss at Oklahoma State sets the tone for typical late season disappointment for the Horns. Also, Texas is 1-5 ATS their last 6 as a favorite and 2-5 ATS in home games with a total posted between 56.5 and 63 points. Look for the road team to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Will Grier and the Mountaineers offense will prove to be too much here. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #315 Friday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - Yes, Virginia has been red hot and many are looking to ride the Cavaliers here. This is especially true as Pittsburgh, despite an ultra-impressive performance on offense (and a win), gave up a ton of yardage last week. The facts that matter the most here are the Panthers are a very physical football team and while I greatly respect Cavs coach Bronco Mendenhall, he and the Cavaliers have lost to Pitt in each of his first two seasons. Coming into this season Virginia was pegged by most prognosticators to finish dead last in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Now both the Cavs and the Panthers have just 1 ACC loss heading into this battle. The Cavaliers are also ranked! However, I fully believe this is a case of a little too much too respect too soon for the Cavaliers. I am calling for the upset here but, of course, I am grabbing the points. Currently this line is at 7.5 as of early gameday morning and that is a great value. The Cavs, for all their accolades, actually have only averaged 346 yards per game their last 4 games. The Panthers, on the other hand, have averaged 479 yards of offense per game in their last 3 ACC games! Pitt is loaded with confidence after their huge performance at Duke and they also have confidence at Virginia due to recent success in this match-up. Under head coach Pat Narduzzi, the Panthers have gone 11-6 ATS in their last 17 as a road dog. Virginia is on a 2-6 ATS run in November games and is a long-term 4-7 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record and get the job done again here. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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10-31-18 | Ball State v. Toledo -18 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
All Treat No Trick Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #306 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7:30 ET - Ball State has been ravaged with injuries and now they are forced to go with Drew Plitt at QB because Riley Neal has been downgraded to out for this game. The Cardinals also have injury issues at RB and WR. Not only that, the Cards have been hurt by injuries on the offensive line and on defense too. All the way around this is not a good spot for Ball State. As for Toledo, QB Mitchell Guadagni left the Rockets most recent game with a shoulder injury. However, even if he did not play in tonight's game, back-up QB Eli Peters has played plenty this season (including last week) and he has played well. Peters plays with confidence too and, at home, versus an over-matched Cardinals team, the Rockets can essentially "name the score" in this one. I look for them to get a huge lead and then, though they will be in a certain respect "coasting to victory" I still them piling up points. Even when Toledo turns to their ground game to grind out clock, they are likely to break off big runs. The Rockets have run for 229 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cards defense has allowed 227 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games and that includes 411 rushing yards in their most recent game. Though I generally don't lay big numbers, this is a rare case where everything does point to a blowout and Ball State, without their top QB (and other skill position guys) just doesn't have a lot of "backdoor cover" potential here. Look for the Cardinals to drop to 2-10 (SU and ATS) in October games! Note that the Rockets are 10-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 8 points and coming off a win that was by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. That system fits here as they blasted Western Michigan last week by 27 points as an underdog! There is another perfect system here too as Ball State is 0-9 ATS when they are playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. That means this spot is a combined 19-0 / 100% PERFECT! Lay the points! 10* TOLEDO |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | Top | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #302 Tuesday CFB 10* Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - First off, lets talk about the current injury report here. The Bulls have no one listed while the 3 guys for the Redhawks all quite important and all 3 are seniors. Of course WR James Gardner has been out since earlier this season but that was a crushing blow as he was the leader of the receiving group. The other two players are on defense and are both listed as questionable for this week. Liinebacker Junior McMullen is the middle linebacker and certainly a crucial piece of the LB corps. The defensive back is Deondre Daniels and he was the top returning cornerback. Now even without all this I still love Buffalo here. They had won 4 straight in this series but now have lost back to back games to Miami-Ohio (Bulls were down to 3rd string QB in last year's meeting). So this is a double-revenge situation and Buffalo is at home and they are laying a TD. Good value here. The Bulls are 7-1 this season and Miami-OH is just 3-5. Granted the Redhawks have played better since MAC play began but the Bulls have been playing even better (on both sides of the ball) and have the home field edge and high motivation factor here. In terms of technical support, the Redhawks are on a 1-3 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Bulls are on a 6-3 ATS run in Tuesday games. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-1 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS when they are off B2B SU wins and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Buffalo is also 7-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 2 points and are playing with revenge! 10* BUFFALO |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14.5 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - This one falls under the old "ugly home dog" theory but it fits well. The team nobody wants, Buffalo, is at home in a divisional game and down to their 2nd string quarterback, and they're hosting the almighty Patriots - a public team that people love to bet. You can see where I am going with this as, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the unpopular team. Of course this is not without good reason. For one thing, I fully expect the Bills to get a much better game from back-up QB Derek Anderson as he now makes his 2nd start. Additionally, Buffalo's defense has played much better than many realize. Looking at their points allowed this season (25 per game and similar to Patriots) you'd probably be surprised to hear that the Bills defense is allowing only 321 yards per game while the Pats are allowing 390 yards per game. Of course the Patriots are the much better offense but I love the fact we're getting the Bills plus two touchdowns now as a divisional home dog in their only primetime game of the season and they are at home. Having a rough start to the season, this a rare chance for Buffalo to truly shine with the ESPN cameras rolling and facing Tom Brady and Co. You know the Bills are going to bring a huge effort here and are highly motivated. The Bills are 10-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team with a winning record. Remember that game at Minnesota this season? The Vikings were 1-0-1 at the time and the Bills were off B2B SU losses. That was the 10th straight ATS win for Buffalo in this situation and I look it go to 11-0 ATS tonight as the Bills keep this one much closer than many are expecting. By the way, in addition to the 10-0 ATS factor tonight, there are two other perfect ones worth noting! The Patriots are 0-6 ATS as divisional road favorite of more than 8 points. Also, NE head coach Bill Belichick is 0-7 ATS in road games versus a divisional opponent when that divisional foe is off a double digit loss and playing with revenge. Of course that system fits perfectly here as Buffalo got blasted by 32 at Indianapolis last week and have revenge against the Pats as they got swept by them last season. Combined edges above are 23-0 / 100% for the ugly road dog! Grab the points. 10* BUFFALO |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday NFL 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Of course the public will be enticed to grab the undefeated team at home here but the contrarian viewpoint is to back the dog that has a great shot at the upset and yet is catching more than a TD here. To go on the road and beat a streaking team like the Packers, you need to be strong at the QB position. That said, a team led by Aaron Rodgers at QB plus coming off a bye week is certainly a strong underdog. The Rams are finally back home but keep in mind this was preceded by 3 straight road games so Los Angeles isn't exactly "rested" at this point in time. Also, last week's big win at San Francisco was the first cover for the Rams in their last 4 games. That was a blowout win on the scoreboard but note it was fueled by turnovers. The yardage was very nearly equal in that game but the 49ers were simply done in by turnovers. Hence the line value this week. Also this is the first time this season that LA is facing a team with a winning record entering the game and that is noteworthy as the Rams are 4-8 ATS their last 12 in games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay is a long-term 22-11 SU when coming off a bye week. Also, the Packers are 8-3 ATS when a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Statistically these teams are not much different and yet when you look at the records it looks like the Rams are so much better than the Pack. That is simply not the case and the result is huge value here. 8* GREEN BAY |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #251 Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET (game played in London, UK) - I am going to list four names that tells you why you should play the Eagles here. Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler. The fact is that the Jaguars would take EITHER of the Eagles top two quarterbacks over their TOP quarterback. There is just no comparison and though you certainly can't base a play on just one position on the field, the fact is that QB is definitely the most important position and the Jaguars offense is a mess right now. They have struggled to the ball in each of their past two games plus have turned the ball over an average of 3.3 times per game their last 4 games. Compounding the potential QB issues here, this is a road game for both teams which certainly favors the Eagles. Philadelphia can play anytime anywhere and has turned the ball over a total of just ONE time in their past two road games. The Jaguars have turned the ball over 7 times in their past road games. Also, Jacksonville has been held to 14 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. It is hard to win when you're not scoring points. As for the Jaguars defense, they have allowed an average of 35 points and 401 yards per game in their past two road games. The Jags are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC teams. Remember when the Eagles blasted the Giants two weeks ago? That win improved Philly to 11-1 ATS when, in Game 5 through 8 of a season, they entered a game with a losing record and were facing a team that was off back to back SU losses. That system fits here too! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-27-18 | Washington v. California +12.5 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #166 Saturday 10* Top Play California Golden Bears (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 6:30 ET - Simply too many points here. You know California head coach Justin Wilcox (formerly a defensive coordinator at Washington in 2012-13) wants this game badly. The Huskies are having a solid season in Pac-12 action while Cal has been struggling but the Golden Bears can make a statement right here right now by getting revenge for beatdowns taken at the hands of Washington each of the past two seasons. This year's defense is much improved and I don't see the Huskies enjoying the success they have in past match-ups. Coach Wilcox is doing a great job with the D this season and California is allowing 24 points per game on average on the season and has held all but 2 of 7 opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Huskies have been held to 27 points or less in 5 of their 7 games against FBS foes this season and Washington has not scored more than 35 points against an FBS school this season. Based on Cal's improvements on D and the fact that the Huskies O has not been a powerhouse, I expect Washington to struggle just to win this game let alone cover the big spread. The Huskies only big road win (@ Utah by 14) was fueled by turnovers. Washington's other road games included a win by 7 and a loss at Oregon. Look for a tight one here as the Golden Bears struggles this season have been fueled by turnovers but they are off a game at Oregon State where they played a complete game on both sides of the ball. Look for that huge win over the Beavers to provide the confidence boost this team needed and the defense, solid, is already there. Now with the offense playing a complete game and building off last week's strong effort, the Bears are a dangerous home dog in this spot. In fact, the Golden Bears are 12-1 ATS when they are double digit dog and are coming off a SU win that was also an ATS cover. The system fits here and this is a superb value spot. 10* CALIFORNIA |
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10-27-18 | Iowa +6 v. Penn State | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #185 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - Being a contrarian has been a key to my long-term success in this industry and, of course, most of the betting market will be looking hard at Penn State here laying less than a touchdown which would seem like a bargain since they are on their home field. I feel strongly that Iowa is going to prove to be the right side of this physical Big Ten match-up. In fact the physical nature is what I feel strongly favors the Hawkeyes here as the Nittany Lions have gotten soft far too often including the game they blew against Ohio State earlier this season. That was inexcusable and says a lot about this Nittany Lions team which has since lost as a double digit favorite versus Michigan State and barely got by Indiana last week! PSU was outgained by the Spartans and then followed that up by getting outgained by over 100 yards by the Hoosiers! The team, plain and simple, is just not clicking now as the loss to the Buckeyes really seemed to take the wind out of their sails for this season. Now they face a revenge-minded Iowa team that has the vastly superior defense. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 14 points and only 258 yards per game. The Nittany Lions have allowed at least 21 points in 4 straight games while Iowa has held 5 of 7 opponents to just 16 points or less! Upset alert here so I certainly am happy to grab the available points in this one. 8* IOWA |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #131 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:30 ET - The Owls, in essence, have lost their leader on each side of the ball. Florida Atlantic's LB Azeez Al-Shaair was the Defensive Player of the Year for Conference USA and he is out for the year with a torn ACL. Owls QB Chris Robison is questionable for this game with an ankle injury but he was actually benched in Florida Atlantic's 31-7 loss at Marshall last week which was also the first Owls game without Al-Shaair. The point is that even if Robison was healthy there is already confidence lost in him due to poor play. The Owls are facing a Louisiana Tech team that is hell bent on revenge here. Last season the Bulldogs got embarrassed at home 48-23 by Florida Atlantic even though Louisiana Tech outgained them 512 to 415. You read that right...the Bulldogs outgained the Owls by nearly 100 yards but lost by 25 points on the scoreboard. Indeed it is payback time tonight and, with Florida Atlantic having issues with arguably the most important player on each side of the ball, this one should be a road rout for Louisiana Tech and I am happy to grab the points. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and also 7-1 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points and Florida Atlantic is also 1-8 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The line has been moving toward the Owls and in true contrarian fashion I am going the other way and grabbing the Bulldogs! 10* LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 Thursday NFL 10* Houston Texans (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The Dolphins are going with Brock Osweiler at QB as Ryan Tannehill is still dealing with his shoulder injury. Though Osweiler has done fairly well since stepping in, both of his starts were at home in Miami. Now he and the Dolphins are in the road and in what will be a very hostile environment for Osweiler and his teammates. Osweiler is a former Texan that had a huge contract and failed in Houston and his relationship with Texans head coach Bill O'Brien was not good to say the least. Suffice to say O'Brien and the entire Houston team are "amped up" for this game. It is a primetime weeknight game and they will make the most of it. The Texans defense is fierce including great pass rush abilities and this will force Osweiler into mistakes. Being without their two top wide receivers is also a detriment to the Dolphins offense for this one. Note that Miami is averaging a paltry 14.7 points per game on 242 yards per game on the road this season. The Texans offense is averaging 22.1 points per game on 372 yards per game this season. Houston has won 4 straight games while the Dolphins have lost 3 of their last 4 games including each of their last two road games. Miami is on a 5-9 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and the Dolphins also are on a 3-8 ATS run as an away dog. The Texans have won 7 of the 8 meetings between these teams including all 4 at home and there is some -7 out there as of early Thursday morning. Grab it and look for a home blowout here as DeShaun Watson has a big game at QB for the Texans. Miami has allowed an average of 467 yards per game their past two games. 10* HOUSTON |
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10-25-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia -13.5 | Top | 14-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Game #114 Thursday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears, as a big dog here, could have used some help from mother nature to help limit the potent West Virginia offense. Had this game been Friday night instead of Thursday night they would likely get it as rain is expected. However, Thursday night is expected to have spectacular weather conditions with no rain and light winds and this angry Mountaineers teams won't hesitate to run up the score on Baylor. West Virginia is coming off their first loss of the season, a dismal loss at Iowa State two weeks ago. The Mountaineers have been fired up to get back on the field but had to wait an extra week because of their bye week. Don't be surprised if West Virginia looks like they've been shot out of a cannon when this game gets going. They are fired up and a primetime weeknight game is going to have Morgantown rocking tonight! The Bears are 3-3 this season but the 3 wins were against Abilene Christian, UTSA, and Kansas State. Every time that Baylor has faced tougher competition they've lost. The 3 losses have come by an average of 17.3 points per game and the Mountaineers 5 wins this season have come by an average margin of 22.8 points per game. In fact, all except a road win have come by at least a 16 point margin. With this line dropping down from 14 to 13.5 and, considering the highly motivated situation for the Mountaineers, I won't hesitate to go to my top play rating for this one. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in road games with a total between 63.5 and 70 points. The Mountaineers improve to 4-1 ATS in games played on turf this season. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-23-18 | Troy -12.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rare Tuesday CFB Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ South Alabama Jaguars @ 8 ET - The Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker for the season (ACL) but Sawyer Smith had already had some experience this season and had performed quite well. The fact that he had some struggles in his first start, on the road at Liberty, is actually leading to some line value here. Look for Smith to perform much better after getting that road start out of the way and he has had extra time to prepare since Troy is off a bye. It certainly will help that Smith and the powerful Trojans are going up against a weak defense. The Jaguars defense ranks in the BOTTOM 20 out of all 130 teams in FBS for defensive efficiency. Overall, South Alabama has allowed 446 yards per game this season. The Jags run defense is particularly poor and the Trojans powerful ground game can take advantage. Troy is on a 6-0 ATS run in Tuesday games. The Trojans enter this game having allowed just 19.7 points per game their last 6 games. South Alabama enters this game off a rare big win and previously had allowed an average of 47 points per game in their first 6 games this season. The Jaguars are on a 5-13 ATS run in conference action and will prove to be outclassed again by the class of the conference as the Trojans get revenge for last year's loss. Last year the Jags caught Troy after their big upset of LSU. South Alabama is not so lucky this season in terms of the situational set-up and the Trojans roll big here! Lay the big points even though they are on the road. 10* TROY |
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10-22-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - This line looked funny to many when it first was posted as, even though the Falcons have had a rather tough start this season, they are still at home here and Atlanta was in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and made the playoffs last season. Considering those factors as well as the fact that the Giants went 3-13 last year and have started this year 1-5, it is no wonder why Atlanta is getting plenty of love from the public in this one. Don't be fooled ladies and gentlemen as this game was priced this way for a reason and the sharp money is on the Giants. On Thursday night football the G-men were embarrassed by the division rival Eagles but their season is not over yet. Both Philly and the Cowboys lost yesterday and now have losing records on the season. The Giants have a shot at the NFC East first-place Redskins next week. In other words, New York knows that it just takes back to back wins to be right back in the thick of things in their divisional race. After getting embarrassed in the game against the Eagles last Thursday, the Giants D is undoubtedly going to bring a huge effort this week and they do have the better defense in this match-up with the Falcons. Although Atlanta has a bye on deck, they are actually just 1-5 ATS when playing the week before a bye. The Giants, when a road dog in non-divisional action, are on a 5-1 ATS run. The Giants are also on an incredible 9-0-1 ATS run when they are off a Thursday game. The Falcons are off a key win versus the Buccaneers are Atlanta is on an 0-7 ATS run after facing Tampa Bay. That means we have a combined 16-0 / 100% PERFECT edge here in favor of the road dog! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-21-18 | Saints +3 v. Ravens | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #469 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 4:05 ET - A pair of hot teams matched up here but I like the value with the road dog that also has the better offense. The Saints have won 4 straight games and also are on an 8-0 ATS run in October games. The Ravens have played well this season but are still just 3-2 SU their last 5 games and they have a knack for falling into slumps as we get closer to the mid-point of the season. Baltimore is on a 3-8 ATS run in October games. The Ravens are also 2-6 ATS in non-conference games. When the Saints enter a game on a wining streak of 2 or more SU games, they have gone 9-4 ATS. Keep in mind New Orleans just had that huge MNF performance from Drew Brees and are now off their bye week. They are rested and ready while the Ravens have expended a lot of effort the past 3 weeks as all 3 games were on the road. Baltimore has defeated the Saints each of the last 3 meetings including in the Superdome against Brees and Company in 2014. That said, this triple-revenge game goes to the hungry rested road dog. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets +4 | 37-17 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #466 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Viking are off back to back wins against NFC foes and have a big game on deck hosting another NFC foe as the Saints are up next for Minnesota. That said, a road trip to face an AFC foe that doesn't come across as "overly imposing" is unlikely to bring out the best in the Vikings. I love grabbing "ugly home dogs" in situations like this and the Jets should bring home the cash for us. New York enters off back to back wins and, with each victory, confidence is growing. That said, unlike the Vikings, the Jets do not have a big game on deck as they face the Bears next. In other words, New York is fully focused on this game especially because they won't be home again until mid-November. Look for the Jets to bring their "A game" and they are on a 10-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season plus the Jets are on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Vikings are on a long-term run of 10-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This is a contrarian, anti-public play as you know they'll be on the Vikings and you know what usually happens when the public has an enticing game like this to grab hold of...they usually go down in flames. Make the sharp play here. 8* NEW YORK JETS |
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10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 9:30 *AM* ET in London, UK - The Titans are off an embarrassing 21-0 shellacking that they took at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore last week. Tennessee has now lost back to back games and a change of scenery is absolutely the best thing that can happen for a team that is struggling at the present time. For the Chargers, the last thing they needed was a trip to London, UK as Los Angeles had been rolling with 3 straight wins and demolished Cleveland last Sunday. Now LA tries to maintain focus and momentum heading across the pond. The Titans are 4-0 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive losses. The Chargers are facing a revenge-minded Tennessee team that lost by 8 two seasons ago when these teams met in San Diego. Payback time in London is on tap Sunday but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS the week before a bye. Also, in games 5 through 9 of a season, the Chargers are 0-7 ATS when off a game where they scored more than 35 points and now facing team that does NOT have a winning record. Look for the 3-3 Titans to come up with at least the cover here. Combined edges of 15-0 ATS here in favor of the underdog! I'll take it! 8* TENNESSEE |
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10-20-18 | Oregon +3 v. Washington State | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 7:30 ET - People will shy away from Oregon here since they're off the big win at Washington last week and it was a revenge game. However, those same people may have forgotten that the Ducks are on a mission right now thanks to a healthy Justin Herbert at QB and they have big-time revenge on their minds this week because they've been beaten badly by the Cougars each of the past two seasons! Look for Oregon to roll here as the Ducks, in my opinion, have faced tougher Pac-12 match-ups than Washington State has thus far. As a result, Oregon is the more battle-tested team in this match-up and their only loss this season (to Stanford) was truly a game the Ducks never should have lost. They've showed great resilience ever since then. I also like the fact that Washington State is 6-0 ATS this season so they're falling into public favor as a result and they're getting some extra shading in this match-up they really don't deserve. The Cougars luck at the betting window runs out this week in my opinion! The Cougars are 1-3 ATS off a bye week and 5-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or less points. Oregon is 46-23 in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Ducks are also 16-6 ATS in a road game with posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* OREGON |
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10-20-18 | UL-Lafayette +26 v. Appalachian State | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #353 Saturday 8* UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (+) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - The Mountaineers are an amazing 5-0 ATS this season but that has them over-valued in this spot. Appalachian State is laying nearly 4 touchdowns here even though they're facing a UL-Lafayette team that has only struggled twice this season and those tough performances were against SEC teams. App St is a good team but they're certainly not on the level of SEC teams like the Mississippi State Bulldogs or Alabama Crimson Tide teams that beat the Ragin Cajuns. Note that in UL-Lafayette's other 4 games this season they are 3-1 and the lone loss came by just 2 points! The Ragin Cajuns have averaged 46.3 points per game in their 4 games that were against non-SEC competition. UL-Lafayette was beaten badly by App State the past two seasons but they've closed the gap this season and that has not been properly factored into this line because, right now, the betting markets are enamored with the 100% ATS Mountaineers. Appalachian State is a long-term 1-5 ATS as a favorite in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The Ragin Cajuns are a long-term 6-3 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* UL LAFAYETTE |
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10-20-18 | Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #383 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ Noon ET - The Sooners have averaged 48 points this season. So what's the problem in Norman? A defense that got scorched back to back weeks before their bye week. It culminated with a loss to Texas in that final game before the OU bye and that led to the firing of their defensive coordinator. The guy stepping in as in the interim, Ruffin McNeil, is a players coach and they are going to fight like hell for him on Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to put forth a huge effort on defense while the offense simply continues to roll. The Sooners are an offensive machine and TCU, now 3-3 on the season, is down some this year. The result is a road rout of huge proportions here. A little uncomfortable if you have to lay more than a TD here? Sure that is understandable but Oklahoma should win this game by at least 17 points as the Horned Frogs are averaging just 15.7 points per game their last 3 games. Texas Christian University is on a 2-16 ATS run in home games. Look for the Sooners to improve to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with TCU. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS as a home dog of less than 7 points when playing a non-divisional opponent. Arizona is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. As for the Broncos, under head coach Vance Joseph, they are 1-9 ATS in road games. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Denver is 2-12 ATS when they are a favorite against a team that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin and that also is playing with revenge. That system fits the Cards perfectly here. Combining all the edges here and you have a 37-4 (90%) spot in favor of the hungry home dog here. Yes, both teams have been struggling this season but the Cardinals view this game as a rare chance to shine at home in prime-time action with all eyes of the football world watching. The Cards will be ready to go in a big way here. 10* ARIZONA |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Thursday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - At first glance this line looks a little on the high side. Of course you know what that means and long-time followers also know that I have had plenty of success through the years by being a contrarian. That is what I am doing here as I lay the big points but certainly it is not without good reason. The Panthers defense has been absolutely awful this season and the Red Wolves should roll. Arkansas State is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points when they are facing an opponent that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Red Wolves are on a 7-1 ATS run in October games and a 3-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Georgia State is on a 1-4-1 ATS run in SunBelt Conference games. Combined edges here are 26-4 (87%) in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The set up here is perfect. The Chiefs are 5-0 this season. Kansas City is also off of a "phony final" where they beat the Jaguars by 16 but were outgained by 78 yards. Patriots QB Tom Brady will be in "attack mode" all night on Sunday as the Chiefs pass defense is allowing a ridiculous 343 passing yards per game this season. New England has revenge here as they lost by 15 points to KC here in Foxboro to open up the 2017 NFL season. That is a loss that Bill Belichick certainly hasn't forgot and he rates a significant edge over Andy Reid in my opinion. Just like when he was with the Eagles, Reid has done a good job in most regular season games and then struggles in the post-season. Of course this is not a post-season game but it will play out like one as this is a big game in terms of vying for early season AFC supremacy. I don't see Belichick and Brady losing this game! The Chiefs are a long-term 22-37 ATS against AFC East teams. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 11-2 ATS in games where their posted total is 49.5 points or higher. Of course this game has a total much higher than that so that angle is definitely in play here and in a high-scoring game I'll take the veteran QB and the better head coach over the dynamic (but still inexperienced) Pat Mahomes and a head coach that is not known for winning games like this. Week 1 of last season was an aberration. 8* NEW ENGLAND |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Jaguars are off a 16 point loss at Kansas City but Jacksonville actually outgained the Chiefs by 78 yards! The Jags were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to be an issue today. Jacksonville turned the ball over 5 times last week but the Cowboys have forced only 4 turnovers TOTAL in their 5 games this season. Dallas only lost by 3 at Houston last week but it was a deceiving final score. The Cowboys got the push ATS in that game but were very fortunate for that as the Texans failed many times in the red zone. Houston outgained Dallas by 170 yards in the game and should have the game by about two TDs. Last week's "false final" results involving both of these teams is what is leading to solid line value here. Keep in mind the Jaguars should have beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last season but blew a big lead inexplicably. In other words this is a team that was one step away from the Super Bowl last season and we're getting them off a loss here. As for the Cowboys, this is a team that continues to be in disarray and just can't find any solid footing or consistency. Their offensive line is not near what it use to be and this will be an issue as they face the attacking Jaguars defense. Dallas has just 1 ATS win in their 5 games this season. The Jaguars appear poised to improve to 10-5 SU and ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #264 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Falcons have lost 3 straight games and the Buccaneers have lost back to back games so certainly something has to give here! Look for Atlanta to be the team to get back on track as they take advantage of home field and they catch Tampa Bay sluggish coming out of the bye week. Sometimes teams need a bye but when you get blasted like the Buccaneers did two weeks ago (48-10) at Chicago, it is actually better to have a chance to play the next week and get back on track. Instead TB is left wondering why they can't stop anybody as they've allowed an average of 358 passing yards per game this season! That creates a complete mismatch here with the Falcons having Matt Ryan at QB and able to take advantage of this glaring Bucs weakness. Atlanta has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the average margin has been 10.7 points per game. Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 games played in domes. While the Falcons defense has struggled too, the Bucs defense has been even worse and the TB offense is starting to come back down to earth after a surprisingly successful start to this season. As for the Falcons offense, it remains a consistent threat week in and week out and that will prove to be the difference here as well. 8* ATLANTA |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #176 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - The Mountaineers are a ranked team and an undefeated team and so when they opened up as a rather small favorite here of course the betting masses jumped all over them. This has led to even more value here with an Iowa State team that is much better than their 2-3 record indicates! The key to that value is that the Cyclones have played a much tougher schedule than West Virginia has so far this season. That is why West Virginia has been a double digit favorite in 4 of their 5 games this season while Iowa State has been an underdog in 4 of their 5 games and that includes being a double digit underdog each of the last 3 times the Cyclones were a dog. Iowa State enters this game with added confidence after the big win at Oklahoma State last week. While some may expect them to now fall flat at home, this is the Cyclones only home game in a span of 5 weeks as they've been on the road for back to back weeks plus they have a bye week on deck. That said, Iowa State is going to make the most of this opportunity to host a ranked and undefeated Big 12 foe! As for the Mountaineers, they also have a bye on deck but that situation can play out much different mentally when you are an undefeated team. West Virginia is likely already thinking about their bye and could look right past a Cyclones team they have enjoyed plenty of success against in recent meetings. The Mountaineers, in fact, are known for this is in recent seasons as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 against teams with a losing record while the Cyclones are known for stepping up against tougher competition as they are 11-2 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record! 10* IOWA STATE |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida v. Memphis +5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #184 Saturday 8* Memphis Tigers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida is ranked in the top 10 and is undefeated on the season. Of course the Golden Knights are getting plenty of attention in this spot as a result. However, 4-2 Memphis is playing this game with double revenge from last season as they lost in the regular season and in the conference championship game. Finally the Tigers get UCF in Memphis and I expect them to make the most of this opportunity. The Tigers statistically compare well to the Golden Knights and the home team has been the SU winner in each of the last 9 games Memphis has played (not including the bowl game of course). The Tigers are 16-2 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points when facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .750 on the year. Also, the visitor in this series is on an 0-5 ATS run. In other words, it is a great time to fade Central Florida in this one as the angles are 21-2 ATS in favor of the Tigers in the home dog role here. 8* MEMPHIS |
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10-13-18 | Oklahoma State -7 v. Kansas State | 12-31 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ Noon ET - After the home loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State will be in full-on bounce-back mode at Kansas State Saturday. The Cowboys also have the add motivation of revenge here as they suffered an outright upset loss as a home favorite of nearly 3 TDs in their game versus the Wildcats in Stillwater last year. Suffice to say it is now payback time! Kansas State has lost 3 straight games and their only two SU wins this season came when they were favorites in the 3 TD range. The Cowboys are 8-1-1 ATS when they are playing with revenge and facing a team that has a losing record on the season. Kansas State has been a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7.5 points just twice in recent seasons but they lost both games and were blown out by an average margin of 12.5 points per game in those two contests. I expect another home loss by double digits here as the Cowboys get revenge. OSU is averaging 44 points per game this season while Kansas State is averaging exactly half as much. Indeed the Wildcats are averaging only 22 points per game. The Cats offense simply won't be able to keep up with the 'Boys in this one! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #110 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - From mid-September to late-October, this is the only home game for Tulsa. The fact that they are getting to host a conference foe that is currently a Top 25 team and it is a weeknight game with the ESPN cameras rolling just adds to the factor that the Golden Hurricane are going to be sky high for this game. Yes Tulsa's record looks bad but they've played a much tougher schedule than South Florida has and the Golden Hurricane have been done in by turnovers. Each of the last two games for Tulsa have been "phony finals" where the final score has not been commensurate with the yardage for the game. Also, the Golden Hurricane lost by just 7 points at Texas earlier this season. As for the Bulls, they won by 16 at UMass last week but allowed nearly 500 yards to the Minutemen. 5 turnovers is what led to the big win for South Florida. Their two prior wins were both by 7 points or less and those were teams they were favored to beat by 2 or 3 TDs. In other words, the Bulls are coming into this game over-valued while the Golden Hurricane are certainly under-valued at this point in the season. Look for redshirt freshman Seth Boomer to play much better in his 2nd start at home after having to play on the road last week. Tulsa was a 17 point dog at Houston in that game and led the game outright by 9 points in the 4th quarter before things came unraveled due to turnovers. This Golden Hurricane team is so hungry and has proven they can hang with teams like Houston and Texas on the road. In other words, facing USF at home is certainly not going to be as tough as a task as those games were and Tulsa covered both of those games. The Golden Hurricane are 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. South Florida is 2-6 ATS in a road game with a posted total in the range of 56.5 to 63 points. 10* TULSA |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have won 3 straight SU in this series. With this number dropping back down to a -2.5 on Philly, there is great value with the small road favorite in this one. Philadelphia has lost back to back games SU and has failed to 4 straight games but that has led to line value in this spot. Home field has not meant a lot in this series and, that said, laying less than Field Goal with the super bowl champs is excellent line value. Yes the Eagles are banged up at RB but they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions plus a powerful offensive line and one of the better defensive lines in the league. The Giants are just 1-4 SU this season and off a disheartening late loss at Carolina after rallying back for a shot at the victory. That is a tough loss to bounce back from and this is particularly true on a short week. Look for Eagles QB Carson Wentz to deliver a huge game here and look for Philly to dominate in the trenches as Philadelphia improves to 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 Thursday games. The Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS their last 2 Thursday games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. TCU | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Thursday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7:30 ET - Though QB Alan Bowman is now listed as doubtful for this game for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are expected to have McLane Carter available as well as Jeff Duffey. The latter is very athletic and could give the TCU defense some trouble with his running ability. Keep in mind, the Red Raiders have been piling up yardage (as usual) this season no matter whom has been under center. Texas Tech enters this game having averaged 48.4 points and 591.4 yards per game on the year! While the Horned Frogs have a solid defense, it is certainly not as strong as we've seen in years past with TCU. The Red Raiders are getting as much as 7.5 here as of early game day morning and Texas Tech is seeking revenge for a 27-3 loss at home in Lubbock last season! Note that the Red Raiders did outgain the Horned Frogs in that one so the final score is truly not commensurate with the way the game played out. Also, Texas Tech won their most recent to TCU. Additionally, while the Red Raiders have perennially bad Kansas on deck, the Horned Frogs might be peeking ahead to their huge game against Oklahoma coming up next week. The Red Raiders are 6-3 their last 9 as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Horned Frogs are on an ugly 2-14 ATS run in home games! 8* TEXAS TECH |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10 | 35-9 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - The Mountaineers look very impressive this season but other than their season opener versus Penn State, Appalachian State has faced a very weak schedule. The Red Wolves had to face Alabama, the best team in the nation, but also have faced tougher teams than the Mountaineers in their other games. That said, the betting markets are enamored with Appalachian State here because they have a balanced offense, have put up a ton of points this season, and the Mountaineers have the better record. However, strength of schedule is super important in analyzing college football and with Appalachian State climbing all the way up to a 10 point favorite the value is with the home dog in a big way here. Consider that the Red Wolves, other than versus the Crimson Tide, have allowed an average of only 22.3 points per game in their other 4 games. Also, Arkansas State is off of a loss to Georgia Southern but they did outgain the Eagles by over 100 yards in that defeat and the Red Wolves got their offense going in a big way. A home dog in a rare primetime game nationally televised on ESPN2, you can bet that Arkansas State is ready to go here! As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS and they also are on a 7-0 ATS run in October games! Give me the big home dog in this one! 8* ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | Top | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are coming off of their bye week but are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 after a bye. The Saints have a bye week on deck and are 7-3 ATS when playing the week before a bye. We also have good value here in that Washington has overachieved early this season while the Saints have underachieved early this season. Yes New Orleans is 3-1 on the season but everyone remembers their opening game loss at home versus Tampa Bay and then how the Saints barely beat the Browns in Week 2. This is why New Orleans is less than a TD favorite hosting the Redskins here while last season they were favored by nearly double digits when they hosted Washington! Certainly one could argue that the Redskins have the better defense in this match-up but the Saints are the better team on offense and I expect Washington will not be able to keep up here. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd time this season that the Redskins are on the road. Their first road game was against an Arizona team that is 1-4 on the year and playing at New Orleans is certainly a much tougher draw than facing the Cardinals at Arizona! The Saints are also 7-0 ATS in their last 8 October games while Washington is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games on Monday night football. That is an 11-0 / 100% perfect situation favoring the home team in this one! 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans -3 | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - After an 0-3 start the Texans got a key win on a last second field goal last week at Indianapolis. That is the type of victory that can really get a team going with momentum. If you haven't lived in Texas in recent years you wouldn't understand how important this match-up is to the Texans. They truly feel like they always play 'second fiddle" to the Cowboys fans in the state of Texas. After the Oilers left Houston and went to Tennessee to become the Titans even more and more fans in Texas pledged their allegiance to the Cowboys. Sure the Texans have a huge following in the Houston area but they really do get tired of being the "ugly step-sibling" to the Cowboys. That is why a non-conference match-up like this is actually a huge game for Houston especially with it being in primetime under the Sunday night lights! The Texans are averaging 336 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Cowboys have averaged just 137.5 passing yards per game on the road this season. Dallas is an ugly 1-3 ATS this season. The Texans are on a 6-3 ATS run in October games. 8* HOUSTON |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Rams are undefeated on the season and I am not saying they necessarily lose outright here but I do feel strongly that this is going to be a very tough game for them. Of course the Seahawks are truly a shell of the team they once were but the Rams crushed the Hawks at Seattle last year 42-7. That was the worst defeat in 8 years with Carroll at head coach for the Seahawks and it came on their home field too! You know Seattle is going to be rocking for this game and motivation, emotion, home field edge are all things that can go a long way in a game like this. Seattle would love nothing more than to avenge that embarrassing loss and put the first loss into the ledger of a division rival. As strong as the Rams offense has been, they did allow nearly 400 passing yards to the Vikings last week! The week before that LA allowed 141 rushing yards. The point is that this Rams defense has certainly shown a few holes in recent games and Russell Wilson and company will be looking to take advantage. At the same time, the Seahawks defense will bring their A game. Yes they are not what they once were but the entire team will be up for this one especially after the ugly incident with safety Earl Thomas last week. Teams really "come together" after incidents like that and this team is going to rally this week. The Seahawks have won 13 of the last 18 home meetings with the Rams SU and here they're getting 7 plus the hook which is good value as Los Angeles is a great team but is a little too over-valued by the markets right now. 8* SEATTLE |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are undefeated on the season but coming off of a short week and a last minute win at division rival Denver on Monday night. Kansas City also has a big game on deck with the Patriots! KC has won each of the last 3 meetings with Jaguars so this is a triple revenge spot for Jacksonville. Keep in mind, none of the 4 teams that KC has beaten currently have a wining record. As for the Jags, they've beaten the Patriots (3-2 and arguably better than that record indicates of course) and they lost to a Titans team that is now 3-1 on the season. The Jaguars were one of the top teams in the AFC last season and they are well aware of the undefeated record of the Chiefs here. Public bettors will be enamored with backing a home team laying just a field goal considering they haven't lost a game yet this season. The fact is that the road dog is the way to go here as Jacksonville it highly motivated and the Chiefs are truly in a tough scheduling spot. Also, as good as Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has been, the Kansas City defense is one of the worst in the league right now while the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league on defense. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Aggies (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are 5-0 this season and the Aggies are just 3-2 and yet opened up as nearly a TD favorite. Long-time followers know where I am going with this one! Texas A & M has played the tougher schedule and also is very tough at home. The odds makers know this too and that is why this line is priced like this. The Aggies have had time to adjust now under new head coach Jimbo Fisher and, keep in mind, the two losses that Texas A & M has on its ledger came against Clemson and Alabama! The Aggies put up nearly 400 yards against the Crimson Tide and did reach 500 yards against the Tigers! Those are very impressive numbers for any offense going against a defense like each of those teams possess. That said, there is great value here because I don't believe the Wildcats offense can keep with the Aggies here. Kentucky has averaged just 313.5 yards per game on offense the past two weeks. Texas A & M is averaging over 500 yards per game this season despite having to play Clemson and Alabama this year! The Wildcats are off of a huge win versus South Carolina last week but 4 Gamecocks turnovers were the key to the victory as the yardage was nearly equal. This is a high value spot for a play because right now the betting markets are enamored with the Wildcats but the unranked Aggies are favored at home for a reason and they prove that to everyone here. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Kentucky is a long-term 7-15 ATS. The Aggies are already 4-1 ATS this season and are coming off of their first non-cover this season. That makes this the perfect time to back them! 10* TEXAS A & M |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State +3 v. Colorado | 21-28 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #355 Saturday 8* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 4 ET - Of course this line looks ultra favorable to the public in terms of backing the home team. After all, Colorado is the team off to a hot start and Arizona State already has a couple blemishes on its record. The key here though, as per usual, is what you find when you dig a little deeper. The Sun Devils have played a much tougher schedule so far this season in comparison with the Buffaloes. Also, Arizona State is still hungry for that first road win under coach Herm Edwards I must admit Edwards has done a better job with ASU than I expected. One of the keys has been the assistant coaches he brought in. That has helped speed the growth under Edwards and the Sun Devils are undervalued in this spot. The Buffaloes are over-rated because of their flashy record which certainly has been helped by playing a weak schedule. Look for the hungry road dog to get the job done here and get their first win away from home under Edwards. Remember they did beat a quality Michigan State team earlier this season. Upset alert here. 8* ARIZONA STATE |
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10-06-18 | Missouri v. South Carolina +1.5 | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #336 Saturday 8* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ Noon ET - The Gamecocks QB situation is actually adding to the value here. Jake Bentley is listed as doubtful for this game but many believe he needed to benched anyway. The Gamecocks last last week's game versus Kentucky largely due to 4 turnovers and it has not been a good start to the season for Bentley. Looking at South Carolina's stats they would certainly be in much better shape if not for the sub-par play of Bentley. That has led to value in this spot. The Gamecocks are at home and hungry for a win and yet are now a home dog in this spot. Will be a huge effort from the Gamecocks against an over-rated Missouri Tigers team in this one. 8* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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10-05-18 | Georgia Tech -4 v. Louisville | 66-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The big key here is the triple option attack of Georgia Tech. This is something Louisville is not familiar with and it is going to give this defense all sorts of trouble in this one. The strength of this factor is compounded by the fact that the Cardinals have to face it on a short week too since this is a Friday game. Louisville did play well against Florida State last week but still came up just short on the scoreboard and that just adds to the frustration of this campaign for the Cardinals. Conversely, Georgia Tech comes into this game rolling with confidence after their blowout win versus Bowling Green. The Yellow Jackets have already lost outright twice in this price range (laying about 4) on the road this season but that is the same line range they are in here. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing. In other words, look for the "third time is the charm" to hold true in this case as Georgia Tech goes out and proves why they are a road favorite here. The Yellow Jackets have turned the ball over a total of just 3 times in their last 3 games. Conversely, the mistake-prone Cardinals have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past 2 games! The Cards are on a 2-4 ATS run as an underdog and Louisville is also on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. In weeks 5 through 9 of a season, the Yellow Jackets are on a 6-2 ATS run and last week's big win is a sign that, once again, as per usual they are hitting their mid-season stride again. The option shreds the Cards defense. 8* GEORGIA TECH |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa +18 v. Houston | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Thursday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game for Houston and Tulsa certainly hasn't looked good so far this season so that explains the huge number posted on the Cougars as the favorite in this one over the Golden Hurricane. The reason I am going the other direction and going with Tulsa here is because they truly needed that bye week last week and I expect them to come out and play much "cleaner" football this week as they've been done in by turnovers this season. As for the Cougars, they've been killing their own defense because of their fast-paced offense. It seems to be wearing down the Houston defense and they've truly been fortunate this season as statistically they have not been as impressive as some of their final scores would indicate. The Cougars beat Rice by 18 but they allowed 439 yards in that game! They beat Arizona by 27 but only outgained the Wildcats by 20 yards! Houston also lost by 14 at Texas Tech and allowed over 700 yards in that game. The point being that, even though the Cougars are likely to put up big yards in this game, I don't expect Houston to be able to get enough stops to win this game by more than about 10 points. Tulsa will be fired up off of the bye as this a team that inexplicably went 2-10 last season and then has started slow this season. Keep in mind the Golden Hurricane outgained the Owls by over 100 yards at Temple two weeks ago and yet lost the game by 14 points. Don't be surprised if this game is much closer than many are anticipating. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS when playing the 2nd of back to back road games. The Golden Hurricane are on a 7-2 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Houston is 0-4 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cougars are 0-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* TULSA |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Broncos. Adding even more value to this spot though is that Denver has gone from Super Bowl champs to 9 wins to 5 wins the last 3 seasons! While the Broncos are clearly on the way down, the Chiefs have been on an upward trajectory with double digit wins totals in each of the last 3 seasons! Kansas City could be ascending even higher this season thanks to the play of Patrick Mahomes. He currently ranks as the #1 QB in the NFL based on passer rating and Mahomes has thrown for 13 TDs without a pick on the season. As for the Broncos Case Keenum, he ranks among the league worst in QB's so far this season and he has thrown for just 3 TDs while also throwing 5 INTs. Though the Chiefs defense has struggled this season their offense has absolutely been a machine moving up and down the field. Also, Kansas City's biggest weakness (defense) is unlikely to be exposed by a Broncos offense that has had issues with drives stalling out due to turnovers and simply being inept at crucial times. That is why Denver's yardage stats look quite good on offense but they are averaging only 20 points per game. The Chiefs are nearly double that as they are averaging 39 points per game. Simply put, the Broncos just won't be able to keep up here. KC is 12-6 SU and ATS in road games and, in addition to covering 5 in a row against Denver, the Chiefs are on an overall 7-0 ATS run in regular season games. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been an underdog of at least 3 points. That means this is a triple perfect play with angles combining for 18-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS. Monday 8* KANSAS CITY |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have defeated the Ravens three straight times. Pittsburgh lost their only home game this season so you know they're going to be ready to go here and make up for the defeat versus Kansas City two weeks ago. As for their other two games, the Steelers did have to settle for a tie versus Cleveland but that was truly a crazy finish after Pittsburgh did lead 21-7 in the 4th quarter. As for their other game (a win last week versus the Bucs), the final score was tight but the Steelers were up huge in that game. You can bet that after these disappointing finishes (blown big leads) and having lost their only game at Heinz Field so far this season, Pittsburgh is going to go a full 60 versus their hated rival, the Ravens, in this one. Of course the betting markets focus on Baltimore's big win last week and the fact that the Steelers let some leads slip away and so now the market has made the move toward Baltimore here. More often than not I like to fade the popular choice and the Ravens are attracting the money in this one. Again, Steelers will not let up against Baltimore like they did against the Browns and Lions. Also, I prefer having Ben Roethlisberger as my QB here rather than Joe Flacco as the latter tends to be turnover prone in the biggest of situations. Note also that, per the injury reports, the Ravens are the more banged up team. Baltimore is only 3-10 SU and 5-7-1 ATS the last 13 times they've been an underdog. The Steelers are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS) the last 13 times in games their line ranges from +3 to -3. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional games and facing a divisional foe that has double revenge against them. Steelers haven't lost B2B home games since early in the 2016 season and I don't expect them to drop to 0-2 at home on the season. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans are still searching for that elusive first win so definitely extra hunger here for the road team. Though Houston suffered a home loss last week versus the Giants they did outgain New York and that was also the case in the Texans prior game. Houston outgained Tennessee the prior week by over 150 yards but lost. The Texans season opening loss was at New England. The point is that based on schedule (trip to Foxboro) and a few bad bounces (past two weeks) Houston is 0-3 despite playing better than their record shows. As a result, we have great value here in going against a Colts team that was very fortunate to get a cover last week at Philadelphia. The Eagles actually outgained Indianapolis 170 yards but you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score. Again, this is leading to more value here in terms of going against the Colts with the hungry Texans. In terms of technical value, the Colts are just 1-5 SU and ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Texans are 11-2 ATS in divisional action when they enter a game with a losing record, off of a loss, and they're facing a team with a losing record. Indianapolis is 1-10 ATS when they are facing a team with a sub-.400 record that is also off of a SU and ATS loss in their prior game. Combined edges here of 26-4 (87%) ATS in favor of the small road dog. 8* HOUSTON |
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09-30-18 | Eagles -3 v. Titans | 23-26 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Eagles got the SU win versus the Colts last week but certainly should have had the ATS win as well. Philadelphia outgained Indianapolis by 170 yards but QB Carson Wentz was a little rusty and the Eagles won the game by only 4 despite the yardage domination. This week look for Wentz to be much more sharp and the set-up is perfect here for Philly as they catch Tennessee off of a big upset win at Jacksonville. The Titans are just 1-7 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Eagles are on a 21-9 ATS run in games played on grass. Off back to back divisional wins, Tennessee certainly could be "out of gas" for this one especially after the big upset win as a double digit dog at Jacksonville. The Titans offense struggles with the pass and relies on the run and that plays right into the hands of the Eagles who currently rank #1 in the league against the run. The Philly defense also is ready to make up for the poor effort they gave in their first road game at Tampa Bay. That loss and poor effort on the defensive end in that game plus with Wentz now back for this road game and having a game under his belt, this is the ideal spot for a huge effort from the Eagles. Considering those factors as well as the small line, look for a road rout in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Though Ohio State has been getting the SU wins in recent meetings between these teams, Penn State has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these rivals. Also, neither one of these teams has faced a tough schedule so far this season. That said, while one could argue that the Nittany Lions are unproven so far, one should also consider that the Buckeyes have played an easy schedule thus far. That said, what sticks out in the minds of most in the betting markets is that Ohio State has dominated every single week while the Nittany Lions struggled to get past Appalachian State in week one. The key though is that PSU has responded since then with 3 straight blowout wins and they get this game at home plus they are an underdog of more than 3 points. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as a result. While it is true that Penn State has struggled at Ohio State for many years now, it is also true that they give the Buckeyes all they can handle when they meet at State College. The Nittany Lions have covered all but 4 of the last 12 meetings in Happy Valley and and they've won half of the dozen games straight-up. The public is enamored with Ohio State right now (as per usual) but they truly struggled to get past TCU and that is the same Horned Frogs team that just lost badly to Texas. The Frogs lost by 15 points and turned the ball over 4 times in that game. The point is that Ohio State may be just a little over-rated right now. The Nittany Lions are a superb 16-2 SU (and 17-1 ATS!) when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. In recent seasons Penn State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Also, long-term as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Nittany Lions are also 5-1 ATS! Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS their last 4 on grass. Also, the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The last two match-ups have been decided by a TOTAL of just 4 points! Grab the value with the home dog points in this one. 10* PENN STATE |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State +9 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #182 Saturday 8* Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Very tough spot for Texas and the perfect time to fade them as the betting markets generally have a tendency toward a short term memory. The Longhorns have been hot and are off of back to back wins over USC and TCU but keep in mind this is a bad spot for them. The Horns are off B2B big wins plus have their annual huge match-up with Oklahoma on deck. At the same time as Texas is over-hyped and in a bad scheduling spot, you have a Kansas State team coming in as a dangerous home underdog. Under head coach Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are known for performing well as an underdog but that hasn't been the case so far this season. That said, off of a bad loss at West Virginia where they were outgained by 146 yards but lost the game by 29 points, there is additional value with the Cats at home and hungry off of an embarrassing road loss. You can bet they'll be ready to go against Texas this week. The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings SU (and is 5-1 ATS) and Kansas State is also 5-0 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've faced the Longhorns in Manhattan. The Wildcats offense returned 8 starts on offense this season including all 5 on the offensive line and, after scoring just 6 points last week, this Kansas State team comes out with a fire lit under them this week. Look for the Wildcats to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* KANSAS STATE |
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09-29-18 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Central Florida | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Afternoon Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida has rolled so far this season but they have played a very weak schedule. Pittsburgh has played a Big Ten team and a pair of ACC teams the last 3 weeks. After falling just short at North Carolina last week, the highly motivated Panthers are likely to give the Golden Knights all they can handle here. UCF is a huge favorite but is only 2-4 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. A lot of points expected here and that means the back door cover option is also open here should we need it. Central Florida has been susceptible to the ground attack this season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to Florida Atlantic last week. The Panthers have run for over 225 yards in three of their four games this season. Pittsburgh is a solid 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Long-term the Panthers are 11-4 ATS when they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. Look for the big points to prove well worth having in this match-up as the Golden Knights finally are matched up with a tougher foe. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets often operate on a short-term memory and, as a result, there can be excellent line value in situations like this. As of early game day morning, the line on this game has been driven up to as high as a 7.5 as many just can't stop thinking about that embarrassing home loss the Vikings just had against the Bills on Sunday. The keys to the value here are that, prior to that game, Minnesota had a tough early season schedule as the Niners (with Garappolo at QB) were certainly a formidable match-up and then the Vikings went to Lambeau Field. After having to settle for a tie at division rival Green Bay and then knowing that this big match-up with the Rams was on deck, it is not a huge surprise that he Vikes were flat against Buffalo. Of course an outright loss was not expected but some struggles were expected. The fact that Minnesota did lose outright (and bad) actually only strengthens the power of this situation here. The Vikings will be ready to go and they're taking on a Rams team that has beaten the Raiders, Cardinals, and Chargers. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 1-8 this season! I do respect the Rams but they are truly getting too much respect from the betting markets here and the fact that we can now get 7 plus the hook in this one has me raising it to a top play. In terms of long-term technical data, the Vikings are 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against the Rams and Los Angeles is on a 2-8 ATS run in Thursday games. The Vikes should improve to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games versus NFC West opponents. 10* MINNESOTA |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The winless Steelers are at the 2-0 Buccaneers and the earliers lines on this game had Pittsburgh as nearly a field goal favorite. Now the Steelers are the underdog in this match-up as of early Monday morning and I love the value we're getting here with the road team. While it is true that Tampa Bay is 2-0 this season, it is also true that the Bucs have allowed an average of 376.5 passing yards per game. That porous pass defense will be trying to stop Big Ben and Company and note that the Steelers passing attack is averaging 377.5 passing yards per game thus far. Look for that match-up to be the key to this game. Yes I know that the Pittsburgh run defense has not been good so far this season but they'll be fired up in the trenches and ready to go here as a winless team on the road under the Monday Night lights. Big opportunity for the Steelers here and note that Tampa Bay managed less than 2 yards per carry in their win last week. In games with a line between +3 and -3, the Steelers are on a 9-3 SU run. Pittsburgh also is a long-term 31-10 SU in Monday night games! In games with a total of 49.5 points or more, Tampa Bay is a long-term 4-12 SU! You can see that a lot of points are expected here and I don't expect the Buccaneers to be able to keep up. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS when they are a road dog and facing an opponent that is off of back to back straight up wins. Of course that system is in effect here and I am grabbing the very hungry road dog in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -6.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Eagles should dominate this game. Yes they have some injury issues at running back but they're getting some healthy bodies back at WR and, most importantly in terms of injuries, QB Carson Wentz is back this week. However, he is actually not even the biggest key to this play. The most significant edge the Eagles have is in the trenches because they are so strong on both the offensive line and defensive line. With the Colts having a glaring weakness in terms of their offensive line, the Eagles D can exploit this and I expect this to be a huge mismatch all game long. In truth it won't even be fair to compare Indy QB Andrew Luck to Wentz in this game because I expect the latter to have a huge edge in terms of time in the pocket and the ability to make throws after plays develop. As for Luck, he is going to need some "luck" just to evade the Eagles aggressive pass rush. Philly is at home and off of a loss and they are fired up. The fact this line is currently available at 6.5 (in a number of shops) as of Saturday afternoon is an added edge. Lay the points with the Eagles and look for a blowout as the set-up is perfect with Indianapolis off of a big road win where they are actually outgained and the Eagles off of a road loss and returning home where they have been so tough under coach Doug Pederson. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This is the ultimate in "line metrics" that fools the betting markets but that should take care of us very nicely. The fact is that many are looking at this match-up wondering how the 2-0 Dolphins at home are laying only 3 (or 3.5 in some spots) against an 0-2 Raiders team. Of course the reason is because the odds makers know exactly what they're doing here and I firmly believe that this will be Oakland's first SU win this season but certainly am glad to grab the extra value of at least a field goal in this match-up. The Dolphins beat the Jets at New York last week but they were outgained significantly in that contest. Keep in mind that Miami's season-opening win came at home against Tennessee and the Titans yardage was roughly equal with the Dolphins in that game and plus the Titans are certainly no powerhouse. I like the fact that the Raiders have had to play the Rams and also visit Denver to open the season (and covered and should have won outright over the Broncos) while the Dolphins have played two teams that many consider to be two of the weaker teams in the NFL. We're getting a lot of line value here as a result and Oakland, statistically has been stronger than Miami so far this season but that just hasn't translated to SU wins and losses yet. Look for that to change this week! The last 18 times that the Raiders have had a line between +3 and -3, they've only failed to cover 5 times! The Dolphins have covered just 3 times in their last 11 games when off of a divisional game. Not only are they off of one, Miami has one on deck too - at New England! Perfect set up here for the road dog. 8* OAKLAND |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | 32-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #392 Saturday 8* Utah State Aggies (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 10:15 ET - Utah State blew a double digit lead against the Falcons last season but that game was at Air Force. That was the 3rd straight loss for the Aggies in this series and they're certainly ready for payback. Utah State is on a 7-2 ATS run as a home favorite and they are the much stronger team in comparison with Air Force this season. The Falcons have lost many key players to graduation the last two seasons while the Aggies have have one of the most veteran groups of players they've ever had. The past two seasons Air Force is 2-0 against Utah State. However, against the rest of the Mountain West, the Falcons are 2-12 ATS! You see my point? The Falcons struggle to compete against conference competition at the betting window and, in a season that is likely to be another down year for them, I feel there is great value here in going against them in this triple revenge spot! Utah State is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they've been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The reason that holds significance here is because the Falcons entered this season on a 7-13 ATS run and their only "big board" game so far this season was two weeks ago against Florida Atlantic. They were fortunate to get the cover as their defense was a disaster and I expect the Aggies to fully exploit that weak pass defense here. 8* UTAH STATE |
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09-22-18 | Troy -4.5 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #397 Saturday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ UL-Monroe Warhawks @ 7 ET - I am well aware that there are some weather concerns in the Monroe area for Saturday. However, this side play is such a fantastic situation that I am not going to shy away from it. The hope is that any weather in the area happens earlier in the day and does not interrupt this game. UL Monroe's home stadium is FieldTurf which helps in term of drainage and avoiding a super muddy field as can be the problem on natural surfaces should there be rain in Monroe on Saturday. In my opinion Troy is still the class of the SunBelt Conference and to get them at this low of a number against a Warhawks team that has not won more than 4 games in a year since the 2013 seasons, is a great bargain! Some may be concerned about the Trojans being off the big upset win at Nebraska last week but, keep in mind, two years ago, Troy was nearly a double digit dog at Southern Miss and got the upset win over the Golden Eagles and then turned around won their next game by a 46 point margin. The Trojans last year had the huge upset of LSU and then faltered the next week as they lost outright as a nearly 20 point favorite. Trust me, lesson learned and this Trojans team is fully focused on the task at hand this week. That "task" is that this is their conference opener and Troy will be ready to go here in a big way. Also note that UL-Monroe is actually 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they've faced a team that is off of an outright win as an underdog! Of course that system fits with the Trojans off the upset of the Corhuskers as a double digit dog last week. Also, the Warhawks lost big to Texas A & M last week and failed to cover. That is noteworthy here as UL-Monroe is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they were off of a SU loss that was also an ATS loss in non-conference action. This is the Warhawks SunBelt opener too and it is time to get serous in conference action. That favors the more talented and stronger Trojans and I am happy to lay the short number. We just need to keep the storms away from the Monroe area as much as possible. They are expected to move away during the evening hours. 10* TROY |
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09-22-18 | Ohio v. Cincinnati -8 | 30-34 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #340 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ Noon ET - The Bearcats are 3-0 SU and ATS on the season and have played well on both sides of the ball. The Bobcats are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS and have played an even weaker schedule than Cincinnati has. Ohio U had their season opener versus Howard and they were favored by 30 but only won by 6. The Bobcats have underachieved thus far and are allowing nearly 600 yards per game! The Bearcats are off of a confidence building blowout win over Alabama A & M last week. While that skewed their offensive stats in a positive fashion, there is no doubt the Cincy defense has played well all season as they are allowing an average of just 8 points per game and they've held the opposition under an average of 230 yards per game. Ohio U is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Bobcats are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against AAC teams. Keep in mind this game is more important than a "typical" non-conference match-up. That's because these teams are located only about 150 miles apart but haven't met in over 35 years. That said, there is recruiting "turf" at stake here and Cincinnati is out to encourage future signees in the region to be a Bearcat and not a Bobcat. Take the rolling home team as the Ohio U defense continues to struggle. 8* CINCINNATI |
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09-21-18 | Washington State +5 v. USC | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on the Trojans here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the value on the other side. The fact is that USC is, of course, seeking revenge here. However, that doesn't make this game any less important to Washington State. For the Cougars, this is their Pac-12 opener this season. Now, I am well aware of the fact that Washington State has played a much weaker schedule than USC has so far this season. However, the Cougars certainly were impressive in their lone "challenging" game thus far as they won by 22 as a 3-point favorite at Wyoming in Week 1. The fact is that Washington State's 3 straight blowout wins (the other two against weak opponents) has served well as a confidence builder for this team. As for the Trojans, they just can't stop the bleeding. That game at Texas should have been "the game" for them as they needed a bounce back effort after Stanford and yet they got pushed around by a Longhorns team that lost at Maryland to open up this season. The point is that there are some internal issues right now with this Trojans team and I am going to challenge them to snap out of it here because I feel they won't. USC continues to have issues on both sides of the ball and, keep in mind, the Cougars win over the Trojans last season was no fluke. Washington State outgained Southern Cal by 135 yards. USC is 0-3 ATS this season while the Cougars are 3-0 ATS. Washington State is on a 5-0 ATS run when they have Utah on deck and that is the case here. USC is on a 3-12 ATS dating back to early last season. Maybe they snap the skid and get a win here but if they do I expect it to be by a field goal or less and I like my chances with the Cougars rolling with confidence right now while USC filling up with self-doubt. The Cougars are a long-term 17-9 ATS as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* WASHINGTON STATE |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 32 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) Cleveland Browns @ 8:20 ET - I understand the line completely as many experts feel the Jets and Browns are equal teams and therefore Cleveland is merely favored for home field edge here. However, the fact that we can get +3 or even +3.5 with New York in some shops as of Tuesday night is a big value in this one when you consider that Browns have not won a single game since Week 16 of the 2016 season! I really like the fact that the Jets outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards last week but yet came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. This also helped add line value this week because, keep in mind, the Jets blasted the Lions in Week 1. As for Cleveland in Week 1, yes they did tie Pittsburgh but the Steelers gave that game away late as they blew a 21-7 lead. Pittsburgh actually outgained the Browns by 145 yards in Week 1. The Browns tie with the Steelers and their close battle with the Saints last week become less impressive when you consider both of those teams have plenty of issues as they each are still seeking their first win of the season. That said, I am certainly not saying that the Jets are not without some issues too but you can absolutely see why, per all of the above as well as New York's stat edges early this season, I am happy to back the road dog here and fade a team that hasn't even won a game since 2016. The Jets have failed to cover just once in their last five versus AFC North opponents. Cleveland was 7-4 SU through game 11 in the 2014 season. Since then the Browns are 4-49 SU! Will I fade a team that is laying 3 plus the hook in some spots and has won just 4 of its last 53 games? Yes indeed and I will elevate this to a Top Play too. 10* NEW YORK JETS |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | 17-24 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
MNF Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Yes the Seahawks have a few injuries but that is factored into this line. We're getting great value with road dog Seattle as we go against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite. Also, the Bears QB is Mitch Trubisky while the Seahawks QB is Russell Wilson. You can't base a play on one position but, one thing is for certain, the QB position is an extremely critical one and Seattle has a huge edge there in this match-up. Also, while Seattle's D did struggle at Denver last week they did garner 3 interceptions in that game and hung tough in a 3-point loss. As for the Bears, it is tough to come back after an extremely deflating defeat to the division rival Packers. Chicago blew a huge lead at Lambeau Field last Sunday night and now feels the pressure of another primetime game on Monday night. While Bears head coach Matt Nagy is in his first year with Chicago, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a long-time veteran. When Seattle is on the road against an NFC foe following a game against an AFC foe in the prior week, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. I also like backing the Seahawks off of a loss. Seattle is 11-2 ATS when they are off of a SU loss outside of their division and are facing a team that has a losing record. The Bears are 0-16 ATS when they are a home favorite against an NFC foe that is off of a SU loss. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 5 road games (one push) against NFC opponents. That means this play is supported, in addition to a number of solid angles, by a pair of angles that are a combined 20-0 / 100% perfect. 8* SEATTLE |
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09-16-18 | Raiders +6.5 v. Broncos | 19-20 | Win | 102 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #285 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos hung on to beat the Seahawks by 3 points last week despite 3 interceptions thrown by Case Keenum. This created a perfect set up this week because there is a false confidence in the Broncos because of the win and some impressive yardage totals for Denver last week. So most of the marketplace is pro-Denver right now and anti-Oakland because, of course, everyone saw the Raiders collapse against the Rams in the 2nd half of that game. However, note that the yardage in that game was roughly equal and note that Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions. However, I still would pick Carr over Keenum to quarterback my team any day of the week. I also prefer a veteran coach like the Raiders Jon Gruden over the Broncos Vance Joseph. So, in this match-up, I have the better QB and the more experienced coach and I am getting nearly a full touchdown even though my team is undoubtedly the hungrier team. I'll take it! The Raiders are ticked off after what happened on Monday night while Denver is feeling a little too good about themselves after beating Seattle in week one. The Broncos are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 divisional games. Also, Denver is a long-term 2-10 ATS when they are at home in a divisional game and favored by less than 17 points and their opponent is off a SU loss. Again, hunger and motivation so important and I expect a lot of fight from the Raiders after what happened Monday and they should be in this one all the way and have a great shot at the upset. 8* OAKLAND |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #283 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Don't underestimate that Jags win over the Giants last week in New York. The Giants have some solid talent at the skill positions with Odell Beckham, Jr back in the mix and now Saquan Barkley running very well already in his rookie campaign for New York. That said, the Patriots were somewhat fortunate to sneak past the Texans last week and that was at home. Now they play in very high heat and high humidity in Jacksonville Sunday and they face a team that should have beat them in the AFC Conference Championship Game last year and that one was in Foxboro! In other words, I like my chances with the Jaguars as they won't blow a big lead against the Pats in Jacksonville in September like they did in New England in January. The Jags outgained the Patriots in that big playoff game and also dominated time of possession but they were done in by penalties. They are going to make the most of this opportunity for revenge. Of course the Patriots have been a covering machine in recent years and that is priced into this line. In other words, the wrong team is favored here but that is to satisfy the masses and, as long-time followers of my program know, I like to fade the masses. Keep in mind, since this line has Jax as a dog we can talk about their SU streaks as they do apply here and Jacksonville has won 6 in a row SU at home. As strong as the Pats have been overall ATS they have covered just 2 of their last 5 away from home and I like the Jags in the stifling oppressive heat of Florida in this one. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +6 v. Falcons | 24-31 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #263 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - First off let me start by saying that I am well aware that Carolina has some injury issues head into this game. However, the key factor is the Panthers have some solid depth at those positions (in particular, the offensive line) and I really like the big dog value being offered here. That was not a bad Cowboys that the Panthers thoroughly dominated in Week 1. At the same time the Falcons faced an Eagles team whose offense was totally out of rhythm and had questionable play-calling and never really could get in sync and yet Atlanta still lost. This is why I am going contrarian this week because most are expecting the Panthers to fall short after a big win over Dallas while the Falcons bounce back after a tough loss to the Eagles. It is the old "zig zag" theory. This is helping to give us a lot of line value here because Carolina's defense looked great last week while the Falcons traditional red zone struggles on offense continued. As a result, getting close to a TD here is a big value because there is no way the Panthers will be flat here. They are up for this game as they've had a history of struggles against Atlanta in recent meetings and it is payback time. The Panthers are a very cohesive group right now where everybody is pulling even closer together because of some of the injuries they've had. I really like what I am reading out of Carolina and, in terms of technical edges, the Panthers are a long-term 24-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points while also having gone 9-4 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons combined. 8* CAROLINA |
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09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #210 Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:30 ET - The Sun Devils rallied for a home win against Michigan State last week. As a result, Arizona State was able to sneak by a ranked Spartans team even thought they allowed nearly 400 yards in that game. Now the Sun Devils are on the road for the first time this season and facing arguably their toughest challenge yet (first away game and hosted weak UTSA team in Week 1) and yet ASU is favored by nearly a full TD here. The markets are not grading this team properly. Head coach Herm Edwards was considered by many to be the most questionable (and possibly worst) off-season hire and now after just two games they're laying nearly a full TD on the road. I just don't see it and yes I am aware of the Aztecs QB being out for this game. Keep in mind San Diego State is a run dominated team. Also, a big key to this play is that Edwards plucked away their defensive coordinator from the Aztecs. Do you think long-time veteran head coach Rocky Long wants this game? This match-up certainly has special importance to him. He has been coaching in some capacity ever since his playing career ended in the mid-70s and he is known as a defensive specialist. He does not want to get out-witted by his pupil (the ASU DC) on the opposite sidelines. This will be Long's 230th games as an NCAA head coach while Aztecs coach Edwards does have NFL coaching experience but will be coaching his first ever road game in college action. I love the home dog here as the running game of the Aztecs and a huge edge with coach Long on our side of this play proving to be keys to victory. It also certainly is important to mention the scheduling situation here heavily favors San Diego State. While the Aztecs are at home and off of an easy win over an FCS team and with a MAC team on deck, the Sun Devils are off of a grueling upset win over a ranked Big Ten team plus they have their PAC-12 opener on deck. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get here. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-13-18 | Ravens +1 v. Bengals | 23-34 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The very first number that popped on this one was the Ravens -3 and now Baltimore is in a pick'em range and even a small dog in some books as of Wednesday evening. This is offering great line value to the revenge-minded Ravens. Baltimore, as many may recall, missed out on the post-season last year because of an unbelievable late-game loss to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season last year. Of course revenge tends to be over-played so I am always careful when getting involved in situations with avenging teams. In this case it absolutely looks like the right play. The Ravens have seemed like a team on a mission ever since pre-season kicked off. They went 5-0 in the preseason and then began the regular season with a thumping of Buffalo. Certainly the Bills are expected to be a bad team this season but that games wasn't even close and Baltimore was dominant on both sides of the ball. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals faced a Colts team with a suspect offensive line and a rusty Andrew Luck under center and yet still needed a late rally for the win. Don't be impressed by the final score as Cincinnati scored the final 17 points and the fact is the yardage was roughly equal in that game. Look for the Ravens to improve on a 7-3 ATS run in road openers. The Bengals, in divisional games, are 0-7 ATS if they are facing an opponent whom is playing with revenge and whom scored more than 35 points in their prior game. This perfect system fits perfectly here and Baltimore is ready to roll! The road team was the SU and ATS winner in both match-ups last season and that trend continues here. 8* BALTIMORE |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +5 | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass #1 Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 5:30 ET - The road team has dominated this series of late with four straight wins. Also, Boston College is seeking revenge for last year's home loss where they got drilled 34-10 despite the yardage being roughly equal. The Eagles were done in by 4 turnovers in that game. The over-play of the revenge angle in sports is leading to nice value for us here in fading the betting markets. There has been a big push toward Boston College in this one as their line has risen higher early this week. I am happy to fade this because at least the Demon Deacons have faced one semi-tough test this season. Wake Forest was favored by a little shy of a TD in their win at Tulane in Week 1. As for the Eagles, both their games have been at home and they were huge favorites in both games because of the weak competition they faced. As a result, Wake Forest is the more battle tested team early this season as they had to battle hard for their win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. As for the Eagles, both their games were easy blowout wins. Keep in mind, when BC won at WF last season it was by just 3 points and in their previous visit two years prior it was by just 6 points. I expect Wake Forest to be in this game all the way and to have a great shot at the outright upset. The Demon Deacons are on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog. Look for Boston College to drop to 7-13 ATS long-term as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Yes I am well aware that Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton is still out for Wake Forest. However, Demon Deacons QB Sam Hartman has done a respectable job for them and now has two games under is belt as the replacement for the suspended Hinton. 8* Wake Forest |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy while the Packers Mike McCarthy is in his 13th year with the Packers. Chicago is still resting their hopes on a QB by the name of Mitch Trubisky while Green Bay has a healthy Aaron Rodgers returning as the signal-caller for The Pack in this one. So far I have listed for you a coaching edge and a huge edge at arguably the most important position. Now add in the fact that the Packers have one of the biggest home field edges in the NFL and the fact that this line is down to a 7 and you can see why I am happy to back Green Bay in this one. Keep in mind Chicago has a combined record of 8-24 the past two seasons. In terms of ATS stats the Bears have gotten the cash just twice in their last nine games. Also, for those of you whom like technical trends: Chicago is 0-5 ATS when they have a Monday night game on deck. Last year the Packers season was impacted greatly by injury but do not forget that this team, including playoffs, averaged 12 wins per game the 3 prior seasons. Green Bay knows how to win and with Rodgers back under center this game is a complete mismatch and with the line at -7 it is "go time" for this one. The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears! As a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points, GB is on a 7-2 ATS run. The Bears are on a 4-12 ATS run in road games the past two seasons and I am happy to take advantage of the downward line move here. 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos, based on the markets, appear to be a popular choice this week. This is understandable from the anti-Seahawks sentiment as certainly Seattle has lost some key components from the team that took the field last season. However, I have to wonder if people heavily betting Denver stop and think about this interesting factoid: the Broncos win totals keep decreasing! They won 12 games 3 years ago, 9 games two years ago, and only were victories 5 times in 16 games last season! Is this a team you want to lay points with against a Seahawks team that still has plenty of professional pride and has been a top team for many years now. Also, do you want Case Keenum at QB or Russell Wilson? Of course most everyone would take the Hawks signal-caller give the choice! The point is just the simple fact that a little too much respect has gone the way of the Broncos in my strong opinion. We can now get a full field goal with the team, that in my opinion, is still the better team. Sure there is the important factor of home field but the Broncos have covered just once the last five times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Overall, Denver's home field has been nothing special the last two seasons as they've barely played above .500 in the Mile High City. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU against AFC teams the past two seasons. The Broncos are on an overall 2-10 ATS run. You still have to score points to win games and so, while I respect the Denver defense, I think their offense is still going to have growing pains with Keenum at the helm. Seattle averaged scoring 5 points per game more than the Broncos last season plus the Seahawks D - even after personnel changes - is still a solid unit. The Hawks are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing the first of back to back road games. Also, head coach Pete Carroll is in his 9th year with the Seahawks while Vance Joseph is in his just his 2nd with the Broncos. That difference in experience is worth something too. 10* SEATTLE |
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09-09-18 | 49ers +7 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The 49ers were a different team late last season with Garoppolo under center and I expect the San Francisco QB to stay hot early this season. Keep in mind, the Viking are going through a lot of transition on offense in terms of the QB position as well as their offensive cooridinator. That said, the upstart Niners could surprise the Vikes here. Sure, Minnesota has been excited too re-take the field after that embarrassing post-season loss to the Eagles. However, the 49ers have been just as eager to get back on the field after their strong start finish to last season. This San Francisco team is an up and coming unit with a great mixture of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. With this line climbing up to as high as a +7 as of Saturday evening it is go time with this dangerous underdog. Both these teams have been covering machines of late as the Niners covered 5 straight to end last season while the Vikings finished up the regular season covering 10 of their last 11. However, the key to the value here is the transition taking place with the Minny offense as well as the fact that they are the public team so that is why the money flow has gone their way and the line has moved accordingly. I am grabbing the value on the underdog side with this one and look for the 49ers to improve to 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers. 8* SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-08-18 | Georgia -10 v. South Carolina | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #347 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - This is the year for the Gamecocks. That is what most everyone is saying at least. I know my choice here will be an unpopular one because just about everywhere you look in terms of thoughts on this match-up you're going to read about the value on South Carolina. Ladies and gentlemen, the odds makers don't make many mistakes. That is a fact. While most of the sports betting world scratches their heads and wonders how the Bulldogs can be a double digit favorite on the road in this match-up I am here to tell you that the likelihood is going to be domination in the trenches. I know the Gamecocks are improved and I know the Bulldogs lost some key players from last year's team. But Georgia simply "reloads" and they have a huge talent pool where their best players are coming from. The fact is that they've outgained South Carolina by a combined total of 578 to 73 in rushing yardage in the past two meetings between these teams. That is absolute domination in the trenches but we're getting line value here because they won each of those two games by only 14 points each despite dominating the ground game. I expect Saturday's win to again feature domination and this time it translates even better to the scoreboard with the win to come by 21 points. The Bulldogs have had this game circled because they know that this is one of their toughest games of the season up until they travel to LSU in mid-October. The point is that one of the top teams in the nation here, Georgia, is absolutely going to be ready and up to the South Carolina challenge. The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Also, in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points, the Bulldogs are an incredible long-term 21-6 SU and ATS! South Carolina, as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points is 1-6-1 SU and 2-6 ATS! Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp are each in their third years with their respective teams. The vast improvement that Georgia showed from year one to year two tells me that, despite the experience returning on offense for the Gamecocks (both teams lost a lot on defense), the systems and the buy-ins from the players into those systems are having much more success for the Bulldogs than the Gamecocks and we'll see that again on Saturday in my opinion. Lay the big points on the road. 10* GEORGIA BULLDOGS |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | 24-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #220 Monday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 8 ET - Both teams have inexperienced defenses. That said, I like the advantage that FSU has by being at home for this one. Florida State is going to be loaded with energy with the new coaching regime and also feeding off the energy of the how crowd. The Seminoles, though a bit inexperienced on defense, are still loaded with athleticism on that side of the ball and are going to give the Hokies offense trouble. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech really struggled to establish the run last season. When teams can't do that, it bogs down the offense. I also like the fact that the Noles are returning a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball plus they get back QB Deondre Francois whom got hurt right away in Week 1 last year. Simply put there is a "buzz" around this FSU program right now and with the home field, the energy and enthusiasm that followed the coaching changes, and the fact that Florida State fell far short of expectations last year, we are going to see a massive effort from the Seminoles in this one. There is a reason this line is holding around a touchdown even though these teams are right next to each other in the rankings right now! In terms of technical trends, the Hokies went 0-3 as a dog last season, and also are a long-term 1-8 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 52.5 to 56 range. The Seminoles are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they've been a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and so, of course, a SU win is expected here. The reason this one also translates to a cover is simply a big difference between the status of these two offensive units right now. FSU is loaded on that side of the ball much moreso than the Hokies and the Noles also certainly have some new "wrinkles" under the sleeve of head coach Willie Taggart and they're going to surprise Virginia Tech early and often in this one. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Sunday 8* LSU Tigers (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - When you're good people want you to fail. Where I am going with this is a play on LSU. Part of the reason is there is an early season move by the betting markets that is anti-SEC. I heard it here at the sports books in Vegas yesterday too. Many people rooting against the SEC. The fact is that the SEC, for the most part, rolled in their games yesterday and I am not talking about the games that were expected to be mismatches. Vanderbilt won their game by 28, Ole Miss won by 20, and Auburn hung on to beat higher-ranked Washington. The lines on all 3 of those game were tight and yet there were two blowouts plus the Tigers proved themselves against the doubters as there were a lot of Huskies backers for sure in that one. The point being that now we get a very solid football program, LSU at +3.5 in a "neutral" site game where the location certainly favors them. Of course I am well aware that Miami returns more starters than LSU but that is not some magic system that works for all early season games. You can't just take the team with more returning starters. The fact is that Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier struggled in closing out last season and I like what QB Joe Burrow brings to the table for the Tigers. The Ohio State transfer (and the Buckeyes know a thing or two about recruiting!) is a perfect fit for what LSU is wanting to do on offense this season (remember that OC Matt Canada clashed with head coach Ed Orgeron last season). That is why Canada is now with Maryland and Orgeron has a new system in place for 2018 on offense. That said, lets not forget that LSU is annually a very tough defense too. Those who like technical trends will be glad to know that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS (and 9-1 SU!) in neutral site games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. Miami, with those same parameters, is an ugly 1-4 ATS and SU! Getting the Tigers as a dog of more than a field goal here is truly offering superb line value. 8* LSU |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -2 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers (-) vs Washington Huskies @ 3:30 ET @ Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - This is a contrarian play because the Huskies are ranked higher in the polls, have QB Jake Browning at the controls, and are getting points in this match-up. Don't be be fooled ladies and gentlemen. When a lower ranked team is favored over a higher ranked team it is usually with good reason. This one will prove to be no different. For one thing, though this is a "neutral" site game, the location strongly favors Auburn. I am not just saying that because the game is being played in the southeastern part of the country. I am also saying it because this will be the 3rd straight time that the Tigers are playing in this stadium. Keep in mind they played the SEC Title game here then the Peach Bowl here and now they open up their 2018 season here. This is a big edge for Auburn in this match-up as there is a lot of familiarity for the Tigers while this is certainly a challenging road trip for Washington. The Huskies are 0-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they've been an underdog. Also, they are 0-3 SU in their last 3 meetings with SEC foes. Now I know this is not a "true" home game for the Tigers the location still heavily favors them and that is why I will mention the fact that Auburn is 33-1 SU in non-conference home games the past dozen years. Washington has rarely been tested with a non-conference road game that is as tough as this one will be and I do not expect this to go well at all. 8* AUBURN |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming | Top | 41-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #205 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Everyone seems to love Wyoming here. They are the more experience team, they have a game under their belt, and they won big at New Mexico State last week. However, that same Aggies team then went to Minnesota last night and got absolutely blasted by a Golden Gophers team that normally doesn't score a lot of points. That blowout loss put bullet holes into a couple of those aforementioned theories. One is about having a game under your belt (NM St had that edge over Minny) and the other is that the Cowboys win over the Aggies even matters! Here are the facts that do matter. Experienced or not Wyoming is still a Mountain West team and think about it ladies and gentlemen, how many kids grow up thinking I want to play football at Wyoming? This is not some football powerhouse. Now they're hosting a Pac-12 team that early this summer was laying a TD against them. Now Washington State is down into the pick'em price range and is available at a pick'em price on the money line in a number of books as of mid-day Friday. I am happy to back the Cougars here at a fantastic discount as the markets have done what they usually do - they overreact to one game! Keep in mind Washington State has a couple of easier non-conference home games on deck. In other words, the Cougars have been fully focused on this road challenge all summer long as they know this will be their toughest game before Pac-12 action gets underway for them. They'll be ready...and so am I! 10* WASHINGTON STATE |
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09-01-18 | Ole Miss +3 v. Texas Tech | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #197 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Noon ET @ NRG Stadium in Houston, TX - Both of these teams last season were defined by their offense and had struggles on defense. I watched the Red Raiders struggle time and time again to convert chances in opponents red zones though. I also know that Texas Tech is very inexperienced on offense this season while Ole Miss is absolutely loaded. That said, even though the Red Raiders are returning more starters on defense than the Rebels are, I love Mississippi in this spot. They are not getting near the respect they should in a game that is on a neutral field and, of course, I also love having the SEC over the Big 12 in this match-up. I just feel that Ole Miss is going to be so far head of Texas Tech in terms of offensive production in this one that the Red Raiders won't be able to keep up. With this line moving all the way up to a +3 now the value is even greater with the underdog as of mid-day Friday and I am pulling the trigger right now and grabbing the great value. 8* OLE MISS |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #144 Friday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Syracuse Orange @ 6 ET - I know this is a MAC team that Syracuse is facing but the Orange sure are getting an awful lot of respect from the betting markets when you consider that they are 2-8 SU in road game the past two seasons. Simply put, Syracuse is not known for traveling well and they're taking on a Western Michigan team that is 10-2 SU in home games the past two seasons. I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos have a game at Michigan on deck next week but they are not looking ahead to that. This is their home opener and this is an important game to win and they know of course that a win next week against the Wolverines would be nothing short of a miracle. In other words the Broncos are most certainly focused on the task at hand here. I also like the fact that Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester was the offensive coordinator with Syracuse as recent as just a few years ago. He has some insight into the Orange (including their players) that others don't have. Also, Lester is going to be resuming play-calling duties again this season which I feel will bring out the best in this Western Michigan offense. The Broncos are anxious to get back on the field after an ugly season-ending loss at Toledo last year. Prior to that defeat Western Michigan had won 6 of their 9 prior games and none of the 3 losses came by more than 7 points. The average margin of defeat for the Broncos was just 4 points in those 3 losses. Syracuse lost a ton of talent from last season's wide receiver corps and in their linebacker unit. Keep in mind the Broncos, by the end of the year, had lost 21 players to season-ending injuries last year. That has created a roster this season that is much deeper and much more experienced (others forced into action last year) than first meets the eye and, of course they are healthier right now too. Add it all up and you have great "hidden value" with the home dog here! 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - The very first number that popped up for Wake Forest in this game was a 13 and now it is as a low as a 5.5 as of Tuesday evening. Of course I am aware of the fact that Demon Deacons QB Kendall Hinton is suspended. The fact is that Wake Forest has a pair of solid options behind him. Also, these guys are going to be functioning behind a very strong offensive line that is a cohesive group in terms of returning starters from last year. On the other side of the ball WF will have to deal with facing the option of Tulane. However, that is also an added edge here being the first game of the season as Wake Forest has plenty of time through August to get prepared for it. That has been a big focus for the Demon Deacons heading into this game. Keep in mind Wake Forest returns a ton of talent on the offensive line and they're going up against a Green Wave defensive line that lost all but one starter from last year's team. I am looking for Tulane to drop to 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a home dog while the Demon Deacons improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The mismatch in the trenches coupled with the big downward line move on this one past the key number of 7 made it a definite play for me for Thursday. 8* WAKE FOREST |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 219 h 48 m | Show |
The NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 February 4th Sunday 10* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 ET @ U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN - Defense wins championships. The Patriots defense is ranked #29 in the NFL out of the 32 teams. New England is a sizable favorite here only because of their pedigree. The Pats will get plenty of attention from bettors because, let's face it, it is a "been there, done that" mentality when it comes to the Patriots. However, New England was very fortunate in last year's Super Bowl as anyone with a pulse surely remembers! I had Atlanta and the under in that game for the ultimate double whammy with the ridiculous finish to that game as the Falcons blew what looked like an insurmountable lead. Give credit to New England for that miracle comeback last season but at the same time, they're not going to be so fortunate this time around. The Eagles are the much better team defensively plus have a great ground game thanks to arguably having the best offensive lines and defensive lines in football. Anyone who has followed my analysis for all these years knows that I consider the battle in the trenches to be extremely important to the outcome of football games. In this case, the Eagles certainly hold the edge both when they have the ball and when they're on defense. Philly also has a great running back trio with Ajayi, Blount, and Clement. All 3 of those guys are capable of pounding away at a vulnerable Pats defense. With that said, the Eagles will use their ground game as well as a rejuvenated Nick Foles at QB to go only plenty of clock-eating drives that will help limit the number of possessions Tom Brady and Company get. While the Patriots certainly deserve all the respect in the world for their many years of success this is not their year. They are fortunate to be here as they barely got by Jacksonville and they got a fortunate draw by facing Tennessee in the prior round. The point is that the Pats avoided the Steelers and then, arguably, did have significant help in their comeback win over the Jags in the AFC Championship. That was in Foxboro and they won't be so fortunate here in Minnesota as the Eagles appear to be a team of destiny with all the right pieces in place. Make no mistake about it, the NFC was the tougher conference this season with teams like the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Rams, and Vikings. In the AFC playoffs you had the Bills get in via a miracle, the Chiefs were on a huge second half fade and the Titans certainly were at nobody's top of the list in terms of powerhouse. The point is that the Patriots should have lost to the Jaguars team they faced and certainly would have been challenged by the Steelers had they faced them as Pittsburgh also should have won the regular season match-up with the Pats. New England's luck runs out here as the Eagles earned this spot out of a very tough NFC and they did it in impressive fashion with last week's manhandling of the Vikings. The Patriots certainly have the edge in Super Bowl experience but note that they are 5-4 in 9 appearances and 4 of the 5 wins have come by 4 points or less. The only one that didn't was last year's ridiculous 6-point win over the Falcons (in OT) and the point is that New England - in 9 super bowl appearances - has never blown anyone out. If they do somehow manage a win here I would expect it to be another tight victory for the Pats but the Eagles have a great shot at the upset and certainly are a value play with the generous points! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday Game #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 6:40 ET - Truth be told the Vikings don't even belong here. I am not taking away from their great regular season but, as everyone saw last week, they truly won the game on a miracle. The Vikings benefited in the first half from two Saints turnovers. Keep in mind, prior to the final-play 61 yard miracle TD pass, Minnesota was outgained by New Orleans and losing on the scoreboard DESPITE the two Saints turnovers. As for the Eagles, sure their game was a nail-biter too but Philly (like New Orleans) was also done in by turnovers last week. It's just that the Eagles defense stood so tall that they managed to weather the storm of an early fumble by RB Jay Ajayi and the "fluke" fumble (bad break) on a punt return. This led to the Falcons 10 points and otherwise we could be talking about a 15-0 shutout win for the Eagles last week. Again Philadelphia is getting no respect this week despite home field edge, continued fantastic defense, and the fact that QB Nick Foles grew more and more in confidence as last week's game went on. He overthrew some guys early but ended up with a solid overall performance and looked more and more comfortable as the game went on. Keep in mind this guy is no rookie. Foles has enjoyed plenty of success before at the NFL level and the Eagles can again play the "no respect" card this week. Two great defenses matched up here but the Vikes may have used up their "get out of jail" card already for this post-season with last week's miracle win. The Vikings have kept the dream alive of becoming the first team ever to host a Super Bowl but this Eagles team is now 8-1 at home this season with the only loss being in a season finale game against the Cowboys that meant nothing. Also, the Philly defense has allowed a TOTAL of only 29 points in their last 4 home games! The Vikings shut out the Packers (without Aaron Rodgers of course) in their final road game of the regular season but, prior to this, the Vikes allowed an AVERAGE of 23 points per game in their 6 true road games this season. In road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points, Minnesota is 2-6 ATS. This line currently sits at a 3.5 in a lot of books as of Noon ET on Tuesday (the time I am posting this) but there are some 3's out there and it wouldn't surprise me if the line moves down to a solid 3 as the week goes on. The point is that you should play it now but it also brings another key stat to the forefront here. Philly has thrived in games like this all season long. In games with a line on the Eagles between -3 and +3 they are not only 5-0 ATS but also 5-0 SU. I expect a home dog upset here but also very happy to have the +3.5 points as an added bonus. Look for that stat to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS on the season! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-14-18 | Saints +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:40 ET - A big money move toward the Vikings throughout this week but one must keep in mind, their competition in the NFC North this season was Detroit (horrible defense), Green Bay (lost QB Rodgers to injury) and Chicago (the bad news Bears). As for the Saints, they did battle with Carolina and Atlanta this season and while every other NFL division (there are 8) finished with only 1 team with double digits in wins, the NFC South had THREE of them - New Orleans and the Panthers and Falcons. Another key comparison here is at QB where the Saints have Drew Brees and the Vikings have Case Keenum. I know the Vikes have a fantastic defense but I still don't trust Keenum and this Minnesota offense and lets not forget that the Saints defense did improve a lot this season. The Vikings played 5 December games and never totaled more than 356 yards of offense. The Saints have totaled at least 400 yards of offense in 7 of their last 12 games. This game is being played indoors which further favors the better offense and New Orleans is certainly used to playing in domed stadiums. The Saints have revenge from losing at Minnesota to open up this season and they are 12-3 ATS when playing with revenge and also 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Vikings recent playoff history is not good with a 6-15 SU mark their last 21 games. With the line move here from an opener of 3.5 up to a 5.5, Minnesota is particularly over-valued here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
Saturday Night Special - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 Saturday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots have incredible success both SU and ATS so I know it seems tough to fade them in a spot like this. They are at home and have had two weeks of rest and are laying less than two TDs in most spots as of Friday afternoon. However, the key to the value here is that the Titans play exactly the kind of style that can have them hanging around in this game. Tennessee loves to try and move the ball on the ground and control the clock and the one glaring weakness the Patriots do have is that their defense is not that great. They do have a rather low points per game total and certainly deserve credit for that but this New England team is allowing 366 yards per game on the season. The Patriots D allows more passing yards than the Titans do and also New England gives up 30 more rushing yards per game. That is even more impressive when you consider all the games where the Pats had a big lead and then teams are forced to throw the ball to come back. In fact, the Patriots did allow 4.7 rushing yards per carry and that is a very telling stat. The Titans ran for 202 yards in last week's upset win at Kansas City. New England is such a popular team that the odds maker simply have to over value them at times and that is the case here. The Titans are 10-7 (including last week's win) and only 2 of those 7 losses came by more than 10 points. I expect the Patriots to win this game but only by a single score. The Titans ground game and a respectable defense keeps them much more competitive in this game than many expect. Also, the upset win on the road last week does wonders for this team's confidence. They are going to be ultra competitive in Foxboro. 8* TENNESSEE |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 4:35 ET - Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz at QB is why this line is where it is and I won't hesitate to step in and take advantage. Everyone is giving Foles a bad rap coming into this game but people have to remember that he threw 4 TDs and 0 INTs in his first start after replacing Wentz. Then, in his next start the game did not matter at all (plus was played on Christmas Day) and ladies and gentlemen when your teammates aren't going "all out" that also effects you. That Christmas Day game against the Raiders didn't mean a thing and of course the season finale against the Cowboys was also a meaningless game in which he only threw 11 passes. Now in this game you will see every teammate going hard. The offensive line blocking like it is the last game of their career, the running backs hitting holes as hard as they can, receivers running routes crisp and sharp, etc. You get my point...THIS ONE COUNTS! The Eagles have had two weeks to get ready for this game and they are at home and mother nature has cooperated as well. The cold air is moving into Philly just in time for this game and no matter what anyone says a dome team like Atlanta is effected in a game like this. In fact their long-term history supports that as well. But I am not big on history. I am big on match-ups and the Eagles running game is going to be a big difference maker here. They run the ball better than the Falcons and also stop the run better than Atlanta does. In fact, the overall defense of Philly makes a big difference here. They are allowing just 13.4 ppg at home this season while the Falcons are allowing 21.6 ppg on the road this season. While the whole world lines up on Atlanta here, the sharp money will be on a disrespected team that should win this one handily. I am glad to have the 3 points but shouldn't need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #152 Monday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide in National Championship Game @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ 8:10 ET - Alabama got their big W last week with the much wanted revenge game victory over Clemson. Certainly I am not saying the Crimson Tide don't want this game because, of course they do as winning the Championship is the ultimate goal. However, what I am saying is that Alabama played their ideal game last week (at least defensively) and I don't think they're going to have enough left in the tank to do it again this week. The Bulldogs are going to pound away with their potent ground game and, keep in mind, Alabama only gained 264 yards of offense last week. Just like Clemson, Georgia has a fantastic defense. Additionally, the Bulldogs offense has the added confidence of piling up 517 yards of offense and 54 points in last week's OT win over Oklahoma. This is one of those situations where the whole world is basically ready to hand the trophy over to Alabama before the game is even played. Let's not forget that Georgia head coach Smart was a defensive coordinator under Crimson Tide head coach Saban for 8 years. The Bulldogs did get blown out by Alabama when they met 2 seasons ago but that was a turnover-fueled loss. Georgia has done a great job of not turning the ball over and QB Fromm was very efficient and effective in last week's win over Oklahoma. Winning a pressure-filled game like that (and also winning the SEC Title Game over Auburn in dominating fashion) has done wonders for the confidence of this team. The Bulldogs are absolutely ready and capable of becoming national champs and, if they don't, I expect the loss to be by 3 points or less so grab the value with the points being offered. Look for the Crimson Tide to finish the season with a 3-6 ATS mark against SEC foes. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record and they've played just as tough of a schedule as Alabama has and yet they don't get near the respect that the Crimson Tide do. I'll gladly step in and take advantage. 10* GEORGIA |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:30 ET - It is very hard to beat a division rival 3 times in one season. I am well aware of the fact that New Orleans won each of the first two meetings by double digits but Carolina had won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. The fact is that this line has now climbed all the way up to a full 7 points as of gameday morning and I feel we're getting great line value here. The Saints defense has shown great improvement this season but, keep in mind, the Panthers defense still rates as the better defense in this match-up. Also, Carolina rates a particular edge in the ground game as they are the stronger D against the rush and, even though the Saints have the better overall offense, the Panthers also outgain New Orleans on the ground. Against a divisional foe, when at home and off of a SU loss as a favorite and facing an opponent off of a SU loss, the Saints are 1-8 ATS! Carolina is 8-2 ATS when they are an underdog of greater than +1 against a divisional foe and they are playing with revenge. The Panthers are also 3-0 SU and ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs while the Saints are a long-term 9-12 ATS in January games. 10* CAROLINA |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Bills are riding the emotion of a 4-2 run to end the season that vaulted them into the playoffs thanks to the Bengals miracle last win versus the Ravens in their season finale. There is a lot of positive vibe flowing in the Buffalo locker-room right now and the stumbling Jaguars aren't going to shut that off. Jacksonville lost their final two games of the regular season. The Bills are 4-2 SU (and 5-1 ATS) in their last 6 visits to Jacksonville. Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy is now listed as probable for this game. The Bills are a huge dog here but have allowed only 18 points per game their last 6 games of the season. Keep in mind, that 6-game stretch included facing the Patriots twice! The Jaguars allowed 24 points or more 3 times in their final 6 games and none of those 3 teams are in the playoffs. That says a lot right there. The only 2 times the Bills allowed more than 16 points in their 6-game stretch it was to the Patriots and of course New England is the super bowl favorite. The Bills are a "bend but don't break" defense so their yardage stats are not as impressive as the Jaguars but truly Buffalo is playing better, more confident football, than Jacksonville coming into this one. Look for the Bills to improve to 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points while Jacksonville drops to 8-14 ATS long-term as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* BUFFALO |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Falcons regular season certainly may not have played out exactly like they wanted it to. But the fact is they are here and that means part one of their mission is complete. Rest assured Atlanta has been on a mission ever since the sickening loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year where they blew a huge lead and lost in overtime. To get another chance they've got to get a few wins and I expect win number one here which is why I love the big points being offered here. The Rams are an up and coming team there is no doubt about that but they still are young and unproven when it comes to a big playoff match-up like this. Also, they played in the much more meager NFC West where Seattle dealt with injuries and struggled and the other two teams went a combined 14-18 with many of the 49ers wins coming late in the season. The point is that the Falcons played in the NFC's elite division this year as the Saints and Panthers each won 11 games and prevented Atlanta from taking the division title. The battle-tested Falcons have a huge edge over the Rams in this regard. Also, Atlanta is the much better team on defense (particularly against the run) and I expect that to be a factor here. Certainly the Rams have proven all season long they don't have much of a crowd edge in LA either! Los Angeles went 3-4 SU in home games this season while Atlanta went 5-3 SU in road games this year! The Falcons are on a 6-1 ATS run against NFC West opponents. The Rams are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. Give me the proven, veteran team here. Grab the points but I do sense an outright upset here. 10* ATLANTA |
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01-06-18 | North Dakota State v. James Madison +4.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #368 Saturday 8* James Madison Dukes (+) vs North Dakota State Bison @ Noon ET in FCS Championship Game in Frisco, TX - The Dukes are the defending champs but the Bison had won 5 straight FCS Championships before falling short last year. While the markets are heavily favoring North Dakota State to take the title back, there is a lot of value with the points being offered here. These are truly two very evenly matched teams and the only common opponent, South Dakota State, they faced this season created much different results. For the Bison it was a loss and a yardage deficit of 136 yards. For James Madison it was a win and a yardage edge of 97 yards. In a true #1 vs #2 battle in this year's FCS Championship I am happy to grab the generous points with the undervalued underdog. After opening up at a 3.5 this line has moved up to a 4.5 as of Friday evening and the added value here is truly a bonus. 8* JAMES MADISON |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #274 Monday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8:45 ET in Sugar Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana - Alabama started the season with a tough match-up versus Florida State. Even though the Crimson Tide won that game by 17 points, they only outgained the Seminoles by 19 yards! Alabama was then a huge favorite for many consecutive weeks and basically it was Roll Tide Roll week in and week out. However, looking their final 4 games of the season, including some tougher match-ups finally, I believe shows that the Crimson Tide are not quite what they once were in recent years. Of course one of the final four games was against Mercer so remove that from the equation but, looking at the other 3 games shows some keys. Alabama only beat Mississippi State by 7 points. Also, the Crimson Tide did beat LSU by 14 points bur they were outgained in that game. Then, Alabama's other game saw them get crushed by Auburn as they lost by double digits! As for Clemson, their schedule had many more challenges sprinkled in it throughout the year and the way the Tigers responded in facing regular more consistent challenges will serve them well here. The fact this is a revenge game for Alabama and, with the long-term reputation the Crimson Tide has, this line may look funny to some. However, the line is perfectly fine as, the fact is, it is offering exceptional value to a Clemson team that did face a tougher schedule than Alabama did. Also, while both teams are strong defensively, the Tigers do have the stronger defensive line and I look for that key battle in the trenches to be a key to an upset victory for the dog in this one. Alabama has lost each of their last 3 trips to the Sugar Bowl while Clemson is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run in bowl games. The Tigers are on a 5-0 ATS run as an underdog and I'll grab them again here in their preferred role. 10* CLEMSON |
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01-01-18 | LSU -3 v. Notre Dame | 17-21 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #269 Monday 8* LSU Tigers (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 1 ET in Citrus Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida - The Irish are hurt by suspensions at WR and TE. Though the Tigers also have concerns at a key position with injuries effecting their LB corps, LSU has more depth at LB than Notre Dame does at WR and TE. The Fighting Irish love to run the ball but now they'll very nearly be one-dimensional due to all the issues at WR and TE as they don't have the usual passing targets they would have. The LSU defense, thanks to a stout defensive line, will be up for the challenge in terms of stopping the run. The Tigers are on a 6-0 ATS run and the Irish are on an 0-4 ATS run. That means we have a combined 10-0 ATS streak here favoring LSU. Also, the Tigers are 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points while Notre Dame is on a 2-9 ATS run in January games. 8* LSU |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #327 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - This is expected to be Bruce Arians last game as head coach of the Cardinals. They would love nothing more than to prevent the Seahawks from making the playoffs by notching a huge upset win at Seattle. Granted, the Hawks could win and still not get in if Atlanta defeats Carolina. However, the point is that Arizona can make sure Seattle doesn't get in by getting the upset win here. I feel the Cardinals have a great shot at the upset here which is also why this play (getting big points) easily earned Top status for me. The Seahawks were actually outgained by 147 yards in their win at Dallas last week! Seattle's offense has averaged a paltry 142.5 yards per game the past 2 weeks! It is hard to cover a large spread when you're not moving the ball well and the Cardinals defense won't do them any favors this week. Keep in mind, Arizona's defense has still been solid this season. In fact, they're allowing less yards per game than Seattle is! Also, the Cardinals did outgain the Seahawks in their home loss in the earlier meeting this season! Also, home field has been worthless in recent meetings between these teams. The road team is 4-0-1 in the last 5 games. That's right, the home team has not a single SU win in the last 5 meetings and there was of course also the infamous 6-6 tie last season. I look for another very tight game here with Arizona going all out with 100% effort in this one for Arians. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. The Seahawks are only 2-5 ATS in games played in Seattle this season! 10* ARIZONA |
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12-31-17 | Bears +13.5 v. Vikings | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #321 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The points are simply too much here. This is a divisional game so the Bears are still going to bring a strong effort though their season has long been over. The Vikings do still have something to play for here (first round bye) but that also means that if they get up big they could take their foot off the gas and put things on cruise control. The fact is Minnesota may not ever get such a big lead. The Bears are known for close games as the favorite had covered only 2 of the last 10 games before Chicago won as a favorite versus Cleveland last week. With Bears games trending toward the dog, there is big value here as statistically, these teams are not as far apart as the line would lead you to believe. The Bears defense allows only 37.6 yards per game more than the Vikings. Minnesota's offense gains only 65.8 yards per game more than Chicago's offense. Also, 6 of the Bears last 7 losses have come by a margin of 10 points or less. This game is projected to be low-scoring which makes it even tougher to cover a large spread. The fact is that the Bears are 12-1 ATS in games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points the past 3 seasons. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4 v. Memphis | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #259 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Memphis Tigers @ 12:30 ET in Liberty Bowl @ Liberty Bowl Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee - Memphis is 10-2 and they are at home for this game and yet they opened up as only a 3-point favorite over a 7-5 Iowa State. Sure enough the masses jumped all over the Tigers and drove this line to as high as a 4.5 in some spots. It has settled in around a 4 as of gameday morning and I am very happy to back the Cyclones in this spot. Iowa State played a much tougher schedule than Memphis did. The Big 12, of course, is much tougher than the American Athletic Conference. Also, the Cyclones have the much better defense. Even with facing a number of tough offenses that reside in the Big 12, Iowa State allowed only 21 points and 368.4 yards per game on the season. As for the Tigers, they allowed 33.4 points and 476.2 yards per game. Of course the Memphis numbers on offense look great but let's keep level of competition in mind when evaluating that offense. Also, note that the Cyclones held Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech to a combined 291 yards below what those 3 potent offenses typically average per game. Iowa State is a solid 11-6 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when facing a team with a winning record while Memphis is an ugly 5-11 ATS over this same span. Also, as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the Tigers are a long-term 17-33 ATS. Both teams lost their regular season finale but Memphis allowed a whopping 726 yards in their loss while the Cyclones allowed a paltry 264 yards in their loss. Big difference between the defenses of these teams and I love defensive-minded dogs in bowl games! 10* IOWA STATE |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State -7.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CFB Game #256 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs USC Trojans @ 8:30 ET in Cotton Bowl @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - The Buckeyes were in the discussion for a playoff spot. The fact they didn't get it means they come out fired up and with something to prove in this game. You can't expect anything less from a Meyer-led team. They are going to prove they should have belonged by coming up with a huge game here. Keep in mind, both of these teams have very dangerous offenses but, when you look at the defenses, there is no comparison. The Trojans allowed 405 yards per game while the Buckeyes allowed only 292 yards per game. Also, though both teams played equally tough schedules, Southern Cal's scoring margin on the season was 8.2 points per game while Ohio State's scoring differential was 22.6 points per game. That is a variance of 14.4 points and indeed I am expecting the Buckeyes to win this game by 2 TDs but they are only favored by about one. Ohio State rates the edge on both the offensive line and defensive line and I love backing teams that can win those battles in the trenches! USC is on a 1-7 ATS run as an underdog, an 0-5 ATS run in neutral site games, and December has not been kind to the Trojans either - a long-term 5-14 ATS mark. After their miracle comeback win over Penn State in last year's bowl action, they won't be so fortunate here against the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State is a long-term 13-4 (SU and ATS) against Pac-12 opponents. Also, the Buckeyes Meyer is on a long-term 10-3 (ATS and SU) run in bowl games. 10* OHIO STATE |
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12-29-17 | NC State -7 v. Arizona State | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #249 Friday 8* NC State Wolfpack (-) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3 ET in Sun Bowl @ Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, TX - I am well aware of the fact that the Sun Devils have a solid ATS record as an underdog while the Wolfpack have struggled ATS as a favorite. However, the edges are just too big for me to ignore in this one. I particularly like the fact that NC State has the stronger offensive line and defensive line. That means that the Wolfpack certainly should control the trenches in this one and that is such a critical aspect of the game. NC State has the stronger passing game on offense, and on defense they do rate an edge both against the run and defending the pass. The Wolfpack are 3-0 ATS as a neutral site favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, NC State is on a 7-3 (SU and ATS) run in games played on turf. Arizona State is a long-term 5-9 ATS in bowl games and a long-term 0-4 ATS against ACC teams. The Sun Devils are 5-10 (SU and ATS) in games played on a neutral field and also 2-5 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. The past 3 seasons combined, in non-conference games, Arizona State is 3-7 ATS. More of the same here! 8* NC STATE |