Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - Navy won only 3 games last season and then returned only 4 starters on each side of the ball entering this season. Complicating matters in terms of this game, the Midshipmen have only played 2 games so far and both were against much weaker competition than what they are facing here. Navy has faced East Carolina and Holy Cross in their only two games so far this season. Now, after a bye week, the Midshipmen run into a "buzzsaw" called Memphis. The Tigers averaged 44 points per game the past two games. As for the defense, they returned 8 starters on that side of the ball this season. This could be their best team yet in Mike Norvell's 4 years with the program and remember they won 10 games back in 2017. Remember last year they were ahead 21-9 in the 4th quarter against Navy and then lost 22-21. This is a revenge game for them and also their AAC opener. Like Navy, Memphis is off a bye here. The Tigers are on an 8-1 ATS run in weekday action versus a conference opponent. Memphis is also 7-0 ATS when playing with rest. Navy has Air Force on deck and that is always a big game for them as they battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy. That said, it comes as no surprise that the Midshipmen are 2-5 ATS the past 7 times in their game that is played the week before facing the Falcons. Navy has lost 13 straight road games and I know this is a lot of points but the Tigers are strong enough on both sides of the ball to dominate this game and the revenge factor insures they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Monday Night Mauling - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Teams almost always are amped up for Monday Night Football but this is particularly when they enter a game winless on the season and playing on their home field. Teams view this is as a great opportunity to right the ship while not only their home crowd, but also all of football nation, is tuned in with Monday Night cameras rolling. The fact we can get the Redskins at nearly a full TD underdog price here is a great value considering that the Bears have averaged scoring only 9.5 points per game in their first two games this season. Chicago was fortunate to get the win at Denver last week. Give them credit for sure as they finally got the clutch kick they needed but now there is even concern there again as the Bears kicker is hurting heading into this game. The Redskins have covered 9 of their past 12 games against non-divisional opponents. The Bears have an anemic offense but do have a strong defense. However, the Broncos did throw for nearly 300 passing yards against Chicago last week. The Bears have been strong at getting sacks but the Redskins have done a great job of limiting sacks early this season. That said, don't be surprised if Washington enjoys some success through the air in this game and I don't expect the Bears to be able to get much of, if any, margin in this contest. The Redskins are fired up off back to back divisional losses including the most recent one coming last week as a host. Note that Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points. Chicago is 2-10 ATS their last dozen games against NFC East opponents. 10* WASHINGTON |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +4 | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #488 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a big home win versus the Saints but took advantage of a big early turnover in the game plus the Drew Brees injury. An in-game injury to a star player early in a game is very tough to come back from - just ask the Steelers (Roethlisberger) and Eagles (Jeffery and Jackson) how early game injuries can have a rough impact on a team. The point is that LA certainly took care of business at home last week but they had some good fortune due to the Saints misfortune. As a result, the Rams are now a little over-valued on the road here as this line has been driven up to as high as a -4 on Los Angeles. The Browns already laid an egg in their Week 1 home game and they certainly don't want to do it again here. That said, after taking advantage of facing the Jets last week, Cleveland now is back home with renewed confidence and ready to atone for their season-opening disappointment in front of the Browns faithful. Note that Cleveland is 4-0 ATS their last 4 against NFC teams. Also, in games 1 through 4 of a season, the Browns are 8-1 ATS as underdogs when facing a team of B2B SU wins. The Rams are off B2B games against NFC opponents plus have another NFC game, versus Tampa Bay, on deck. Los Angeles is 15-24 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The Rams have failed to cover 10 of their past 14 non-divisional match-ups and, after catching breaks early this season (Panthers Newton is not right, Saints Brees hurt in first quarter), LA now runs into a healthy team out to prove their first home game was a complete fluke. Per my projections, the Browns will do just that! 8* CLEVELAND |
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09-22-19 | Saints +5 v. Seahawks | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #481 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are a much better team than they have shown early this season. The key word there being team as, keep in mind, it is about much more than just Drew Brees. Sure his absence hurts but don't be surprised if you see a huge response from New Orleans this week and, certainly, we have line value on our side here. This line has gone from a pick'em range all the way up to a 5 and the Seahawks are off an upset win back east. This is not the greatest of situations for Seattle and yet many are backing them here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. The Saints are on a 15-2 ATS run against NFC opponents with a win percentage of .667 or better. Of course that system fits here with the Seahawks undefeated on the season. Keep in mind Seattle has played an awful Cincinnati team and a Steelers team that lost their QB to injury early in the game. That is often tough for a team to overcome in the game in which it happens. The Seahawks are on a 1-6 ATS run when favored against an NFC South team. Look for the scrappy Saints to respond after they lost Brees early in their match-up at Los Angeles against the Rams last week. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - Certainly the Niners deserve some credit for their 2-0 start but they are taking on a Steelers team that, even without Big Ben, is certainly much better than their 0-2 record would indicate. Also, San Francisco's two wins have come against a Tampa Bay team that has won just 5 games in each of the past two seasons and a Cincinnati team that entered this season off 3 straight losing seasons. Now the 49ers take on a team that is annually a threat to make a run at a Super Bowl team. Trust me, I fully realize this Steelers team is not at the same highest level that it once was. However, catching nearly a full TD here with them in a desperation spot is something I won't pass up. I liked San Francisco coming into this season and I still like them now but they are simply over-rated at this point and I could see them getting upset here which is why I like having the big point so much. Coming off back to back road wins back east and with a bye week on deck, the Niners could get caught thinking they can coast at home here and they get caught already looking ahead to their early season bye. San Francisco entered this season 1-13 ATS the last 14 times they have been a favorite. Also, head coach Kyle Shanahan is 0-7 ATS at home when off a non-divisional game and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Also, Shanahan is 1-8 ATS at home off a game in which his team scored 23 or more points. The Steelers are 12-1 ATS as a dog against an opponent with a winning record. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 11-1 ATS as a road dog against a team off B2B SU wins. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-22-19 | Lions v. Eagles -4.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #464 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - Just prior to kick off this season the Eagles win total was 10 and the Lions had a 6.5 for their win total. I am just trying to give you a point of reference here when looking at how over-adjusted the line line on this Sunday match-up is. Philadelphia is HOSTING Detroit here too and they are a Super Bowl contender while the odds makers, as you can from the preseason win total, do NOT expect the Lions to even be a playoff threat this year. So far Detroit has an unimpressive tie at Arizona (blew HUGE lead over the Cardinals...yes THE Cardinals!) and then the Lions beat a Chargers team that is a quality team but lets give that some perspective too. LA, a Pacific Time team was playing a 10 AM game on their body clocks at Detroit and were off a win over an AFC playoff team (Colts) with another AFC playoff team (Texans) on deck. That was a horrible scheduling spot for Los Angeles and the Lions took advantage. But how impressive was the win? The Lions lost the yardage battle BOTH on the ground AND through the air but managed to notch a tight win. Now, because the Eagles have had some injury issues we're seeing the typical over-reaction of the marketplace. Philly, a legit super bowl quality team, is laying 4.5 points at home against a Lions team that won 6 games last season and, really, how great was the Detroit offseason? Also, the Eagles still have Zach Ertz (Carson Wentz favorite target) and Nelson Agholor (huge game at Atlanta) and though Alson Jeffery is still expected to miss, TE Dallas Goedert has a decent chance of playing this week and will be a pre-game decision depending on how warm-ups go. Philadelphia, under head coach Doug Pederson, is 9-2 ATS when they are at home hosting a team off a SU win. This line was as high as a -8 and the oddsmakers were aware of the Eagles injury situation as all these happened early in the Falcons game. That said the line is now down to a 4.5 from the 8 that it was. I'll take advantage and grab the added value with the short home favorite! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-21-19 | Colorado +8 v. Arizona State | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10 ET - Tough spot for ASU. I know on one hand they do have revenge against the Buffaloes since they lost to them last season. However, on the other hand, the Sun Devils are off an emotional come from behind win at Michigan State last week and they won the game in dramatic fashion. Give Arizona State credit for "finding a way" last week but also note that the Spartans play-calling on offense is horrific for a top tier Big Ten program that should have much better performance in that regard. Even with that, Michigan State still outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards. With Arizona State off an upset win and the Buffaloes off an upset loss at home, this one sets up well. Keep in mind, Colorado had beaten Nebraska the week before and that followed demolishing Colorado State in their season opener. The Buffaloes also have a bye week on deck and have a very dangerous offense that is going to test an ASU defense that is highly over-rated right now. Yes the Sun Devils have some great numbers on the season but I already mentioned Michigan State's horrible play-calling above and note that Arizona State's first two games were against Kent State and Sacramento State! The Sun Devils defense is going to be stretched out in this game like it hasn't been stretched yet this season and I expect the Buffaloes to give them trouble all game long. Look for Arizona State to drop to 6-12 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 10* COLORADO |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Illinois Illini (+) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I know the Illini are not a very good football team but this is the perfect "flat spot" for fading Huskers and Nebraska has a penchant for underachieving in a spot like this. Note that the Cornhuskers are off a dominating home win over Northern Illinois. However, in their only challenging game this season they blew a big lead at Colorado and lost outright. Now, of course I am not saying that the Illni are on par with the Buffaloes (not at all) but I am saying I like having Illinois getting nearly two touchdowns with Nebraska coming off a big home win and with a huge home game versus Ohio State on deck! While the Cornhuskers were happy with their performance last week versus Northern Illinois, the Illini are coming off a very disappointing home loss to Eastern Michigan. Simply put, Illinois is in "response mode" here and they have averaged scoring 35 points per game this season. The Illini had allowed only 13 points per game in their first two games before their disappointing 34-31 loss to the Eagles. Look for the home dog to respond big here and the Cornhuskers get caught still celebrating last week's win over the Huskies plus looking forward to facing the Buckeyes next week. As a result, Nebraska is in an dogfight here and I expect the Illini to fall short by just a single score in this one. 8* ILLINOIS |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +11.5 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #320 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Pittsburgh is the kind of team that is very physical and likes to play "smash mouth" football and this is particularly true when you face them in their house. Yes, the Panthers are off a big game at Penn State last week but the positive they have going for them early this season is that Pitt has never left the state of PA. As for UCF, they are far away from home for this one and really aren't used to facing teams from Power 5 Conferences in back to back weeks. They hosted a Pac-12 foe (Stanford) last week and now face an ACC foe this week in Pittsburgh. The Panthers only have Delaware on deck and their fully focused on this game after getting blasted at Central Florida last season. By the way, the Panthers entered this season 7-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a team that is off a SU/ATS win the prior week. That system fits here as UCF blasted the Cardinal last week. The Golden Knights do have their AAC opener on deck and this is the first time this season they have to leave the state of Florida. Plus how good is this UCF team really? They've played Florida A & M, Florida Atlantic, and a normally strong Stanford team that truly seems to have fallen apart this season. Look for the scrappy home dog Panthers to keep this game much closer than many are expect. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -7 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Conference Clash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 9 ET - With this line having dropped to a solid painted 7 across the board as of early Friday morning it is "go time" with Boise State in this one. Air Force is off a huge effort on the road at Colorado last week in an emotionally charged OT win over the Buffaloes. Now the Falcons are in the 2nd of B2B road games while Boise State is enjoying the comforts of home. The Broncos are enjoying an entire month at home actually as they haven't been on the road since their season opening win over the Seminoles down in Florida at the end of August. Boise State has a bye week on deck before traveling to UNLV for their first game of October. From a situational standpoint, this one favors the Broncos in a big way. Also, even though Air Force would like to get payback for losing at home to Boise State last season, the fact is that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge and are coming off consecutive SU (and ATS) wins. That is the case here and I like the fact that the Broncos return 7 starters on defense this season, are doing a great job against the run this season, and also have done a solid job against Air Force's option attack the past two seasons. The Falcons have covered just 2 of their past 7 Mountain West road openers. The Broncos, as a home favorite of 7 points or less, are 9-3 ATS! This one has definitely dropped into their sweet spot and I especially like this after oddsmakers had opened this one up at nearly a double digit line! 10* BOISE STATE |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Tulane has a strong defensive line. However, the Cougars are well-coached (particularly on offense) and they also have a ton of talent at the skill positions. Houston will figure out ways to quickly get the ball in the hands of their play-makers and combat an aggressive Green Wave defensive line. Also, the Tulane secondary is where the weakness lies with their defense. That said, Houston will certainly test that as well. The Cougars are 1-2 SU on the season but the two losses were to Oklahoma and Washington State! Tulane is 2-1 SU on the season but their two wins were over FIU (CUSA school) and Missouri State (FCS school). Although the Green Wave did play (and lost) against Auburn, I feel the schedule has Houston as the more battle-tested team heading into this one. I also love the line move here. This one opened up as low as a 2.5 globally but is now up to as high as a 5.5 as of game day morning. I love the value with the road dog that possesses the stronger offense in this match-up. Keep in mind, Tulane's offense really sputtered it their only game against quality competition. I know the Cougars defense is an area of concern (again) this season but the Green Wave are getting a little too much respect here. Tulane is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they have entered a contest off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Houston is 7-0 ATS in the 1st of B2B road games and they are at North Texas next week. In addition to the combined 12-0 (100%) ATS mark I am happy to test here, note that the Cougars are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been on the road against Tulane. The Green Wave, when playing after a win by a margin of 21 or more points, are 1-5 ATS. Again, I am testing the aforementioned 12-0 combined ATS mark with a hungry road dog that should be in this game all the way and has a great shot at the upset. 10* HOUSTON |
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09-15-19 | Saints +2 v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #283 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Saints barely beat the Texans last week at home but did outgain Houston by about 100 yards in the game. Also, could anyone blame New Orleans if they were perhaps looking ahead to this showdown with the Rams? The loss to LA that kept the Saints out of the Super Bowl will go down as one of the most controversial finishes ever in a playoff game. In any event, this week it is payback time and the Rams, despite last week's win, do have issues in terms of Super Bowl losers "hangover". They got manhandled by the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year and even though they won at Carolina last week it was not that impressive. They benefited from turnovers and keep in mind that this was against the same Panthers team that lost to the Buccaneers (yes those Bucs!) in Carolina to open up Week 2 NFL action. I am expecting the Rams to have a dropoff this season but early this season we're still getting value because it is not evident to the masses just yet that this LA team is set to have a dropoff. As for New Orleans, they're going to ride the hunger of last season's disappointing end result and of feeling cheated. A lot of emotions and positive energy for the Saints here and I'll take Drew Brees over Jared Goff any place any time. The Saints are 15-1 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a non-divisional home favorite. I am grabbing the couple points being offered here and I expect a big road win. 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +6 | 31-21 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Washington Redskins (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys blasted the Giants last week in Dallas so they'll have no trouble here, right? That is the prevailing opinion of the marketplace on this game but I'll gladly grab the home dog. The Redskins put up a helluva fight against the Eagles last week in Philly. Yes they let a big lead get away in that game but being on the road makes a big difference. Also, with getting in the backdoor for the late cover, Washington is now 10-2 ATS in the underdog role in early season (games 1 through 4) divisional games. Of course the Redskins are again in that role here and I like the protection they gave to QB Case Keenum last week plus the way the defense played early. Washington just couldn't sustain it for the full sixty but now they are at home against a hated division rival and they've got another shot at the outright upset here, just like last season. The Redskins outgained the Cowboys by a net of 51 yards in their two meetings last year. Also, Washington did a good job of controlling the ground game and Ezekiel Elliott showed last week that he still has a ways to go after missing training camp. Washington is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they've been a home dog against a team with a winning percentage of .601 or greater. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 1-8 ATS when off a game against the Giants. They have a recent history of struggling in their next game after battling with the Giants. That continues here. 8* WASHINGTON |
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09-14-19 | Northern Illinois v. Nebraska -14 | Top | 8-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 8 ET - Nebraska is off an inexcusable loss at Colorado last week and that means they are going to come back home and put a beating on a foe that can't keep up. The Cornhuskers go from a road game against a Pac-12 team to now hosting a MAC team and this one is going to get ugly quick as Nebraska takes out the frustration of blowing a 17-0 lead against the Buffaloes last week. The Huskers have a lot to play for besides last week's loss too. Two years ago Nebraska hosted Northern Illinois and lost 21-17 as a double digit favorite. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers and note that the Huskies entered this season 0-5 ATS when they are off a non-conference game and now facing a team that is off a SU/ATS loss and playing with revenge. That is a 100% perfect situation that is in play here with the Huskers having revenge from the 2017 game plus coming off an outright upset loss at Colorado in OT last week. This is the final non-conference home game for Nebraska and they need a much better performance in their final tune-up before Big Ten action begins next week at Illinois. The Cornhuskers were unimpressive in their season opening win over South Alabama and then only played one good half at Colorado last week after that season-opening wake up call from the Jaguars. Now, after what happened last week with the OT loss to the Buffaloes, look for the Huskers to finally put it together for the full 60 minutes in this one. Prior to losing the last meeting by 4 points, the Huskers had beaten the Huskies by a combined 77 points in the two prior meetings! Remember Northern Illinois has a new head coach in Thomas Hammock and this is a 2nd straight road game for the Huskies. It is payback time and the Huskers are an angry bunch. The Huskies are walking right into a hornets nest in this one because the talent level disparity is too great and the home team is motivated by last week and by revenge. 10* NEBRASKA |
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09-14-19 | Arizona State v. Michigan State -14.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #160 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 4 ET - As long-time followers know I am generally against the line moves and very rarely am on the same side as a move. This is one of those rare exceptions and I have been waiting for this match-up for a long time and will not shy away from it even with the line being nearly painted 14.5 across the board as of Friday evening. Michigan State didn't just lose at Arizona State last year, they lost the game on a late field goal after never trailing the entire game. Now they get their long-awaited shot at revenge and they get it on their home field while the Sun Devils make their first road trek of the season. Note that ASU has won just TWICE in their last 11 road openers! Okay, so Sparty gets the win but what about covering the large spread here? Couple keys to that. One is revenge as, because of what happened last season, the Spartans will NOT take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. Secondly, Arizona State is going to have a helluva time scoring on this Michigan State defense! When you put those two factors together you have great potential for an absolutely massive home blowout! I also like the fact that Michigan State really got their offense going in a big way last week against Western Michigan. Certainly facing the Broncos was a tougher challenge than the Sacramento State team that Arizona State struggled with last week. Not only did the Sun Devils have less than 100 yards of offense at the half, they didn't even get the game-deciding touchdown until under 5 minutes were left in the game! Spartans are going to have tremendous intensity for this game and it will get ugly. They have one of the, if not the, best defenses in the nation and their offense used the Western Michigan game as a tune up for laying the boom on the Sun Devils this week. 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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09-14-19 | Stanford +9.5 v. Central Florida | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #135 Saturday 8* Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Stanford got rolled 45-20 at USC last week and this game is a classic example of over-reaction by the marketplace. Now everyone is viewing the Cardinal as trash and as having no chance in this game against Central Florida. This has resulted in a big line move toward the Golden Knights and the result is solid value on the Pac-12 dog no one wants here. If you think the Cardinal aren't going to come to play after giving up 45 points last week to the Trojans you don't understand the mindset of a proud football team. The Cardinals aren't used to getting beat like they did last week. They were a field goal underdog in that game and it got ugly. They make up for that performance here. Central Florida's first two games this season were against Florida A & M and Florida Atlantic. Stanford, on the other hand, faced a Big Ten team (Northwestern) and then a Pac-12 foe (Southern Cal) in conference action last week. In other words, BIG difference in the quality of opponents faced. That is not being viewed properly by the markets here. Keep in mind, UCF lost a lot of starters from last season's defense also. This line is now in the 9 to 9.5 range and that is worth noting as Stanford is 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they have been a dog of more than 8 points. Also, though they have Oregon on deck, the Cardinal are actually a fantastic 12-1 ATS when they enter a game with the Ducks up next. Off last week's beatdown they bring a huge effort on the road and they certainly won't look past a ranked UCF team. 8* STANFORD |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Temple Owls (+) vs Maryland Terrapins @ Noon ET - The Terrapins are a popular choice right now because they blew out Syracuse last week and have looked great in their first two games. However, Maryland faced a very weak team in week one and then faced an Orange team in week two that was looking ahead to hosting Clemson this week. Sure some credit is due to Maryland but they're getting far too much credit now as they lay a TD on the road against a Temple team that is coming off a bye week and that throttled them last season. The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS the last 10 times they were off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Maryland does have a bye on deck but Temple's situation is even better as they are coming off a bye. Don't be surprised if the Terrapins come into this game overconfident after back to back blowout wins and knowing they have their Big Ten opener (Penn State) coming up after their bye week. Grab the big home dog. 8* TEMPLE |
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09-12-19 | Bucs +7 v. Panthers | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - With their failure to cover last week's game, the Panthers are on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Carolina's Cam Newton insists he is healthy but he continues to avoid throwing the deep ball. There are many questioning the health of his shoulder. The Buccaneers are also off a non-covering loss but statistically they should not have lost the game by 14 points. The difference in the game was two Bucs picks returned for touchdowns. With both teams off sub-par performances last week I like having the big dog in this spot on a short week. Carolina is looking to get into the win column in a back to back home game situation but the way Newton looks right now they will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover the spread. I know Jameis Winston is off an ugly game for Tampa Bay but if you review his numbers through his career he has shown a knack for bouncing back after a disastrous game and certainly last week's game falls into that category. Look for him to be much better in week two. Carolina is on a 1-8 SU run and that includes losing 4 in a row at home. So not only are the Panthers being asked to win this game but also cover the 7 points. I just don't see that happening. The home team covered both match-ups last season but previously the road team was 7-1 ATS in the 8 meetings between these teams in the 4 prior seasons. In other words, consider last season an aberration and look for the ATS road dominance to resume. The Buccaneers allowed only about 250 yards last week and, despite the scoreboard result, have new life under head coach Bruce Arians. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Houston Texans @ 7:10 ET - In the history of the NFL it is hard to think of many teams that feel more "cheated" entering a season than the Saints. Without a doubt, that infamous non-call when their receiver was "mugged" by a Rams cornerback was the difference in why Los Angeles went to the Super Bowl and New Orleans stayed at home. Now the Saints get the perfect chance to show the World what a great Super Bowl we could have watched last season had it been (as it should have been) the Saints against the Patriots instead of the snooze-fest we witnessed due to one of the worst Super Bowl coaching performances (thanks Sean McVay) ever seen. The point is that New Orleans comes into this game ready to flex their muscles in what, to them, is much more than just a season opener or home opener as this is a chance to show the entire NFL what they missed out on last February. I know the Saints are known for slow starts in season openers but this year's situation is about as unique as it gets and you're going to see an extremely focused and well-prepared New Orleans team on both sides of the ball as they have been waiting to get back on the field for 8 months since their unbelievable OT loss to LA in January. The Texans are a playoff team from last season but they're expected to be a .500 team this season and keep in mind they went 4-12 in 2017. The Saints have averaged a dozen regular season wins per game the past two seasons. They also have the home field edge here. That said, the ability to get New Orleans at less than 7 (plenty of 6.5 out there as of early Monday morning) is a great value. The Saints do have a negative here in that they have the aforementioned Rams on deck BUT, even with that revenge game looming, there is no way that New Orleans is going to overlook facing a playoff team in their home opener. The Saints have been waiting a long time to get rid of the bad taste of that "playoff ripoff" from January. Look for the Texans to drop to 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC opponents as the Saints improve to 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers beat the Patriots in December and they should beat them the December before as well. That 2017 game was a 3 point loss for Pittsburgh which would have been a cover given the line on this Sunday night game. However, this game is at New England which certainly makes a difference but I do feel the Steelers aren't getting enough respect here. This is still a quality football program that will actually prove to be better for getting rid of a couple of malcontents: Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. As for the Patriots, they recently lost their starting center (David Andrews) for the entire season. New England already was without the now-retired Rob Gronkowski. It is actually a bit humorous that the Patriots have now signed the aforementioned Brown but he won't play in this game anyway as his signing can't become official until tomorrow on Monday. The Steelers are actually 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road and EACH of those last FIVE victories have been OUTRIGHT wins. It would not surprise me to see the upset here as the Patriots demise begins this season. The Eagles put them in their place in the Super Bowl that followed the 2017 season but surprisingly the Pats made one last hurrah the Super Bowl that followed the 2018 season. I look for 2019 to begin the permanent decline for New England as truly everything fell into place for the Pats to get to the Super Bowl last season and they have lost some key components from last year's team. The Patriots, as much of a juggernaut as they have been for so many years now, have shown some early season vulnerability. Last season they failed to cover 2 of their first 3 games and the season before they began 0-3 ATS in games played at Foxboro. In my opinion those trends will ring true again here in this early season match-up and the Pats will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover it! 8* PITTSBURGH |
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09-08-19 | Redskins v. Eagles -10 | 27-32 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #456 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Normally I don't lay big points in NFL. The key word in this case being "normally" as there are always rare exceptions. The Eagles should blast the Redskins on Sunday. Philadelphia is one of the top teams in the NFL and also enters this season with a chip on their shoulders. The Eagles are sick and tired of being questioned by naysayers about the fact Nick Foles is now with the Jaguars. Carson Wentz is their guy and the Eagles are loaded with talent surrounding him. As for the defense, lets not forget their secondary was ravaged with injuries last season. Again, Philly is tired about being questioned about their defense as they practically played defense last season with one arm tied behind their back as they were so limited by injuries. It is a miracle the Eagles went as far as they did last season considering all those injuries. This is a very tough spot for the Redskins as they face an Eagles team that has used them as a punching bag in recent seasons and that comes into this year very fired up about flexing their muscles and establishing dominance early. Washington is off back to back losing seasons and projected to be even worse this season. They're also breaking in a new QB on the road against a division rival in a hostile environment. As noted above, this is one of those rare situations where laying the big points is absolutely a quality option. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Philadelphia. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a favorite of 7.5 or more. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-08-19 | Falcons +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 12-28 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - It looks easy, right? Take the home team laying a short number and you're "home free" as you cash in later at the betting window. Not so fast. The Vikings were down across the board last season statistically and didn't have a whole lot of areas to point to as to why. Also, their QB (Kirk Cousins) has an overall losing record in his career. As for the Falcons, they also are off a sub-par season but were done in by some key September injuries too. I like the weapons they have for QB Matt Ryan and also I'll take him any day of the week over Cousins whom I just don't trust at all in big games. Certainly this is a big game and I love having the 3.5 points with an Atlanta team that could be playoff bound this season. The Falcons have shored up their offensive line and I expect the defense, now healthier, to be much better under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. Both teams have plenty of hunger for this season after last year's disappointment but Atlanta also has some momentum after winning each of their final 3 games last season. The Vikings lost 3 of their final 5 games and, overall, had a very disappointing 2nd half of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) the past two seasons in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. An outright upset here would not surprise but I am grabbing the 3.5 points currently being offered as of very early Sunday morning. The Vikings are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games in which their line ranged from +3 to a -3. In this particular case the line is a 1/2 point outside that range but the reason I mention it is because it supports the fact that Cousins and his Minnesota teammates tend to fall short at the betting window in games projected to be a tight battle. This one certainly fits the bill in that regard and I am riding with Ryan and the underdog Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
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09-07-19 | LSU -6.5 v. Texas | Top | 45-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #369 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off easy wins last week as they faced easy opponents. That said, it is hard to say we know much about either team at this point since neither team faced a true test. However, what I do know is that Texas lost a lot of key players on both sides of the ball from last season and I felt coming into this season that some strong value would be available going against them early when they're facing a strong opponent. Certainly LSU fits into that category very well. In my mind, the Horns are still highly ranked in part because of what they did last season and whom their QB is. However, the Longhorns lost so much from last season's team. As for the Tigers I feel the best is yet to come and their time has arrived. Their offense got stronger and stronger as the season went on as QB Joe Burrow got more and more comfortable. Unlike Texas, LSU returned 8 starters on each side of the ball and this should be reflect in more early-season continuity as well. The fact this game is at Texas is helping to give us value as the Tigers would be a very large favorite if this game was at Baton Rouge. With LSU being on the road we've got a very manageable number to work with and I'll lay it! The Tigers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and also a long-term 4-1 ATS against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. Texas lost too much from last season while the Tigers are much stronger than they were last season in my opinion. 10* LSU |
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09-07-19 | South Florida +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 South Florida Bulls (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 2 ET - South Florida got obliterated by Wisconsin last week while the Yellow Jackets also got blasted last week at Clemson. The Bulls missed the mark by a mile and they'll be ready to respond here as, of course their offense is much better than what it showed in an embarrassing loss to the Badgers last week. As for Georgia Tech, the problem with their offense has a lot to with the system. The Yellow Jackets are changing things up this season and they're going to have growing pains as a result. I love fading favorites when they are going through changes and still very early in the implementation mode. In this case, after so many years running the triple option at Georgia Tech, pain comes with the change. South Florida has SC State on deck so there is certainly no lookahead. Even though the Yellow Jackets are playing this game with revenge, the bigger story with that is that they lost to USF by double digits last season even though they were a better team then. Truly the Jackets are going to struggle in this campaign with what amounts to a "transition year" for them. The Bulls got embarrassed at home as they were blasted right away in the first half. That is noteworthy here as South Florida is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. As for Georgia Tech, they are in the same situation, but they are 1-4 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. USF has now lost 7 straight games but they were a double digit dog in 5 of those 7 games. Look for the Bulls to make the most of this "winnable" game opportunity. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA |
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09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -4 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 11 AM ET - This line has dropped from as high as a -7 down to a -4 as of Friday afternoon. Yes, Pittsburgh lost last week while Ohio won but there was a big difference in level of competition. The Panthers faced ACC foe Virginia while the Bobcats took on Rhode Island! That is a huge difference and speaking of differences, lets not forget the disparity between the MAC and ACC. Additionally, the Panthers also have the home field edge here. Simply put, this one has been bet down too low and now offers great value on the home favorite. Pittsburgh is well aware of the fact that they really need this game if they're to avoid an 0-4 start as they have very tough match-ups (Penn State and UCF) on deck! Both teams lost quite a bit from last season's respective teams but the Bobcats lost even more. The Ohio offense returns only 4 starters and they'll be exposed this week after taking advantage of a weak opponent last week. Conversely, the Panthers are the team taking advantage of a lesser foe this week as they take advantage of a step down in level of competition after facing a tough Virginia team last week. Last week the Bobcats faced a Rhode Island team that is an FCS school. This will the Ohio's first game against an FBS team this season and, the past 3 seasons they are 0-3 ATS in their first game of the season against an FBS team. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest -19 v. Rice | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Friday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Rice Owls @ 8 ET - The Demon Deacons have plenty of momentum after scoring late to beat a solid Utah State last week. Wake Forest has a quick strike offense and loves to play fast. Their average scoring drive last week was less than a 2 and 1/2 minutes. This presents a match-up problem for a Rice team that scored only 7 points last week. Yes that game was on the road and this one is at home for the Owls. However, Rice is actually a poor 1-6 ATS when they are at home following a game in which they scored less than 10 points. Also, last season the Demon Deacons were up 42-3 by halftime of their game against the Owls. Wake Forest then cruised to the 56-24 victory. That said, I like the value here with the Demon Deacons laying less points in this one because it is on the road. The fact is that, even though it is on the road, Wake Forest has edges all over the field and, just as was the case in last season's match-up, the Owls will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard. I also like the fact that the Demon Deacons failed to cover last week while Rice had an easy ATS cover. Now the roles reverse this week! 10* WAKE FOREST |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing this game with a chip on their shoulders and I don't see them being denied. After back to back losing seasons (a rare occurrence) Green Bay also had to look up in the standings at the Bears (another rare occurrence) as Chicago was one of the surprise teams of the NFL last season. This included a key late season win for the Bears over the Packers in Chicago and now it is payback time. In 21 starts against the Bears, Rodgers has a 16-5 SU record. Also, we're seeing this line move toward 3.5 so even a Packers loss by 3 points still gets us in the win column here. We don't even need the SU win that Rodgers has so often provided against Chicago. I like the fact that the Packers outgained the Bears in their two games combined last season even though Chicago covered both games. That is noteworthy as these teams have met 21 times in the past 10 seasons (1 playoff meeting) and NEVER in these 10 years has there been a 3-0 ATS streak in the series for the Bears. I don't see that changing here either. Look for the Packers new wrinkles in their offense under new head coach Matt LaFleur to keep the Bears defense off balance enough that it will have an impact on the outcome of this game. I like having Rodgers over the Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. Note that the Chicago signal-caller threw 5 INTs against 4 TDs in his final 3 regular season home starts last season. He and the Bears deserve congrats for their big season last year but they're sneaking up on no one this season and the Packers have had their number for a long time and resume that series dominance starting tonight. 10* GREEN BAY |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #217 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET - I like the hiring of Scott Satterfield as the new head coach for Louisville and, eventually, he is going to lead the Cardinals back to success. However, this program is in a complete rebuild right now after last year's disastrous 2-10 campaign. Satterfield had great success at Appalachian State but let's go back to his first year there for comparison's sake. The Mountaineers started the season 2-8 in their first 10 games under Satterfield. Their opening game that season saw them get blasted 30 to 6. Satterfield had his work cut out for him then and the same holds true here. He is known as a strong offensive mind but they've had to simplify the offense this season for QB Jawon Pass. Mistakes were too prevalent last season and now the Cardinals open their new season facing a tough Notre Dame team that is anxious to finally have a chance to put last season's playoff beatdown (versus Clemson) behind them. The Fighting Irish have been waiting ever since January for someone to punch in the mouth. Now that "someone" is Louisville and the Irish are the better team all over the field in this game. They are so explosive on offense thanks to QB Book and they are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame will beat the Cardinals at the point of attack all game long and this one turns into a road rout. Louisville is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they have been an underdog. In games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points Notre Dame is 9-4 ATS the past two seasons. The Irish allowed just 18 points per game while the Cardinals allowed an average of 57 points per game their final 7 games of last season. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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08-31-19 | Northwestern v. Stanford -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #186 Saturday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 4 ET - It seems like only yesterday when, here in Vegas where I live now, the first lines for CFB came out for small limit wagers. One of the big movers then (in late May) was on this game as the Cardinal were opened up as a double digit favorite but quickly got bet down to a -7. Now, as of the night before the game, the line is down to a -6 and it is "go time" for me on a game I have had my eyes on ever since the "false move" by the market 3 months ago. Why is the market mistaken here in my opinion? It is because they're looking at a match-up featuring a pair of teams that each won 9 games last season and felt that in an "even match-up" the big line was way off. However, the fact is that this is no longer an "even match-up" because the Wildcats are going to be vastly different from the 2018 team! Losing QB Clayton Thorson (now with the Philadelphia Eagles) has this Northwestern offense looking much weaker and the Wildcats also lost their leading receiver from last year's team. I know what you're thinking...Stanford also lost a lot from last year's team too. However, they have a strong QB in KJ Costello and his guidance for the Cardinal offense will be a key here as the Wildcats struggle to get acclimated to life without QB Thorson. Northwestern has gone 2-5 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. The Cardinal are a long-term 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) in August games and also enter this game on a 6-3 ATS run in their last 9 home games. Home field makes a difference here as the Cardinal get payback for a 10 point loss at Northwestern as a 10 point favorite to open up the 2015 season. Of course these players weren't here for that but the coaches were and David Shaw is in his 9th season with Stanford and that is the ONE AND ONLY time that the Cardinal have started a season with a loss under Shaw's watch. It is PAYBACK time here. 10* STANFORD |
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08-24-19 | Florida -7 v. Miami-FL | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #291 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (-) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - This line opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and laying the points here. Florida was 10-3 last season and that was head coach Dan Mullen's first season with the team. I am projecting the Gators to be even stronger now that it will be Mullen's second season at the helm. Mullen has been a head coach since 2009. As for the Hurricanes Manny Diaz, he has never been a head coach at any level of football. Yes, he had been the defensive coordinator for the Hurricanes under Mark Richt but being a head coach is still a much different task. While the Gators have experience at the QB position, the Hurricanes are starting a redshirt freshman. Jarren Williams is likely to struggle here against a talented Florida defense. Yes the Hurricanes defense also certainly commands respect but I like the talent level of the Gators (including on offense) and expect them to have some success putting points on the board. I give Mullen the coaching edge, the Gators the overall experience edge, and I like the fact that the Hurricanes are 7-9 since they were 10-0 and ranked 2nd in the nation back in 2017. It has been all downhill since then for the Canes and the Gators are off a 10-win season they are fully prepared to build on as well. The Hurricanes are on a 9-16 ATS slide the past two seasons. The Gators are 6-2 ATS in non-conference games the past two seasons. Look for the SEC to flex its muscles again in this battle with an ACC foe that is likely to endure some growing pains early this season as they adjust to Diaz at the helm plus an inexperienced quarterback. 10* FLORIDA |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 54 m | Show |
Super Bowl Side - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 PM ET @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - One could argue that the Rams are lucky to be here. After all, that was the story after the NFC Championship Game and the blown pass interference call. However, lets not forget the luck of the Patriots either. Not only did they catch the West Coast Chargers on the East Coast for back to back weeks when they met in the Divisional Round, New England got the added benefit of facing arguably the worst playoff coach in the history of the NFL in the form of Andy Reid in the AFC Championship Game. There are so many mistakes he made in that game it would be too tiring and lengthy to list them all here but lets just put it this way: Rams head coach Sean McVay is at another level compared to Andy Reid. Yes, McVay is very young but I trust his decision-making many times over in comparison with Mr. Reid - known for great regular seasons and horrible playoff flops throughout his career. However, the Patriots luck didn't just stop with the opportunity of facing the Chiefs, they also won yet another coin flip and the way those offenses were moving late in the game do you really think the Patriots would have stopped KC had it been the Chiefs that won the coin toss in overtime? The point is that the Pats have had their share of good fortune to say the least and the fact is I feel strongly that the Patriots reign ended with the Philly Special in the Eagles impressive Super Bowl win over the Pats last season. Everyone and their brother is going to be on New England in this Super Bowl as the savvy veteran Bill Belichick looks to become the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl while, arguably, the "inexperienced" Rams head coach McVay would be the youngest to ever win a Super Bowl. I feel the Patriots defense is a glaring weakness and the Rams defense doesn't get enough credit for how solid they are. Both teams are good offensively but one could argue Los Angeles has the more dangerous weapons and I am expecting Todd Gurley to bounce back big after an awful performance in the NFC Championship game. The extra time off will no doubt help him. Now, about those defenses. The Patriots defense allowed 26 points or more in 6 of their 9 road games. The Rams have allowed just 15.8 points per game in their last 4 road games. All 4 of those opponents were held to 310 yards or less. Conversely, New England has allowed an average of 387 yards per game in their 9 games away from home this season! I am fully expecting the upset here but grabbing the points should the underdog fall just short. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET - The Patriots are off a completely dominating win against the Chargers last week. However, that game was set up perfect for them. They were at home playing with an extra week of rest and facing a Chargers team traveling to the East Coast for a second straight week. Now the situation is much different as the Pats are on the road and facing a Chiefs team that will be playing a home game for the 5th time in their last 6 games! Only one time since an early December game at Oakland have the Chiefs had to leave Kansas City! The Chiefs lost at New England earlier this season but remember they won at New England the prior season and now they're finally getting the Patriots in Kansas City. That is certainly significant as the Chiefs were 8-1 SU at home this season and all 8 wins came by at least 3 points (the current line on this game as of Thursday night). New England went only 3-5 SU on the road this season and 4 of the 5 losses were by a margin of at least 7 points. The Patriots went 1-4 SU and ATS in games played on grass this season. Also, in road games with posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Pats went 0-3 SU and ATS this season! New England benefited this season, as usual, from playing in the weak AFC East and, in my mind, the Patriots dynasty ended when the Eagles got the best of them in the Super Bowl last season. This year, the Pats won't even get to the Super Bowl. It is the Chiefs turn! 10* KANSAS CITY |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #311 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 3:05 ET - The Saints just beat the defending Super Bowl champs last week. Not only is that a big win to come down from in terms of the emotional high, New Orleans was quite fortunate to win that game. When the Eagles were up 14-0 and driving again a very ill-advised play call and poorly thrown ball by Philadelphia QB Nick Foles led to an interception that turned that game around. After the Saints locker room was blaring Meek Mill in the locker room after the game and making light of the Eagles Super Bowl win last year and that they've now "taken over", don't be surprised when they get knocked off their pedestal after just one week. I am well aware of home team's recent dominance in conference championship games. However, the Rams have won and covered 3 straight games and going on the road here actually helps Los Angeles remain focused and not over-confident. As for the Saints, they are on an 0-4 ATS run and over-confident here already talking Super Bowl, etc as New Orleans already beat the Rams here in the regular season as well. Lets not forget the Saints have not been as impressive down the stretch and the Rams get their revenge as they're firing on all cylinders at the right time. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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01-13-19 | Eagles +8.5 v. Saints | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:40 ET - Though they would deny it, there certainly were some questionable play calls (one in particular) in terms of the Saints running up the score when they met the Eagles in mid-November and crushed them 48-7. That loss easily could have sent Philadelphia into a tailspin but, instead, they "rallied the troops" and made the playoffs. Keep in mind they had to beat the Rams in Los Angeles just to get here. Then they won on the road at Chicago last week to open up the post-season. Just like the Rams game, the Bears game was another game where the Eagles had "no chance" and yet prevailed. Once again this week the Eagles have "no chance" against the Saints. Of course this is laughable. These are the defending Super Bowl champs. Philly is again building up confidence with Nick Foles at QB while the secondary which has been so injury-depleted all season continues to grow with confidence thanks to the continuity of more and more playing time together during this late season run. Keep in mind the Saints had a great season BUT their high-flying prolific offense truly peaked with the aforementioned blowout "rub salt in the wound" over the Eagles in mid-November. Since then New Orleans has averaged only 299 yards per game. I did not mis-type! The almighty Saints offense has averaged just 299 yards per game since ripping the Eagles to shreds on November 18th. In 3 of the games the Saints were held to 14 points or less. They do have the rest edge here of course and should win this game but I don't see the win coming by more than a TD and I truly feel the Eagles have a great shot at the upset win. This is a huge revenge game for the defending champs who took the worst beatdown ever for a SB champ at the hands of these Saints. It is payback time. Keep in mind, the Eagles are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Saints went 0-3 ATS this season when a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points and 2 of those losses were outright upsets. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #304 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Cowboys are set up to get pummeled here. While it has been a great run for Dallas and has rejuvenated Cowboys fans everywhere, Dallas has covered just once in their last four games. The point is that they're a bit over-valued by the betting markets over the past month and that has continued here. To be able to get the Rams at a -7 is a tremendous value. Keep in mind, Los Angeles has a significant rest edge here and the Cowboys have expended a lot of energy in back to back weeks as they barely squeaked by the Giants at the Meadowlands two weeks ago. Then last week it was post-season time of course and Dallas barely eeked out a win over the Seahawks. The Dallas offense, on the season, has averaged only 324 yards per game on the road. The fact is that the Cowboys have been a very lucky team this season and also have got a ton of help from the refs in tight games / crucial situations. I tell it like it is folks and while that also builds up momentum, it also leads to being over-valued when facing a VERY high-quality foe and that is certainly the case here with the Rams. Keep in mind, LA has averaged 37 points on 453 yards per game in home games this season. Remember the Cowboys 324 yards per game figure above, Dallas has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this season. That is a 20 point differential between these teams and yet the line here is a -7 and it is Los Angeles with the rest edge. This is VALUE! Look for Dallas to drop to 0-4 ATS in their last 4 January games while the powerful Rams improve to a potent 3-0-1 ATS when coming off a bye week. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:35 ET - The Colts are on a great run but they now run into the #1 seed in the AFC. Not only did the Chiefs certainly earn that #1 seed, they also earned the bye last week and home field edge. That means a lot here. Kansas City is rested and ready plus their defense was much stronger at home than on the road. For the season the Chiefs potent offense averaged 35.3 points per game but their much-maligned defense also allowed just 18 points per game at home. As strong as the Colts run has been, lets not forget that they've averaged only 19.5 points per game their last 4 road games. Simply put, Indianapolis won't be able to keep up with the potent Chiefs in this one. The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC West opponents. Also, Indianapolis is a long-term 9-15 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. The Chiefs went 10-2 SU (and 8-4 ATS) this season versus AFC foes. The Colts had dominated this series prior to Kansas City winning the most recent match-up. Also, the Chiefs (and head coach Andy Reid) are known for their playoff struggles. However, this team is different with Mahomes at the helm and with the play of the defense in home games as well as the rest factor, I do not see the Chiefs being denied here as they make up for a blowing a huge half-time lead in last season's playoff debacle. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this season and only one of those 7 wins came by a margin of less than 7 points. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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01-06-19 | Eagles +6.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:40 ET - Be careful what you wish for. The Bears decided it was better to face the Eagles than the Vikings. Chicago got a big win at Minnesota last week and that kept a division rival out of the post-season and welcomed Philly to town. However, was that really a smart move? Would you rather face Kirk Cousins (a QB known for NOT being able to get the win in key games) or Nick Foles (Super Bowl MVP and absolutely red hot right now)? The fact is that I feel strongly that last week's Bears win that allowed the Eagles into the playoffs and stamped their invitation to Soldier Field is ultimately going to spell the demise of Chicago. Yes, I am grabbing the points here but I expect an outright victory for the Eagles. Make no mistake about it the Bears defense has been great this season. But Philly has positive history in recent meetings with Chicago and Alshon Jeffery (former Bear) is poised for another huge game and has become a key target for Foles. Also, Golden Tate (former Lion) has seen plenty of the Bears secondary in his recent seasons matched up against the division rival. Of course Darren Sproles being healthy is another key catalyst for the Eagles offense as the veteran has incredible quick play capabilities and it forces defenses to NOT be able to focus on just TE Zach Ertz (100+ catches this season) coming across the middle. Back to the QB situation, Foles ribs are only bruised. He will be fine here. No disrespect intended but just be honest with yourself here. Would you rather have Mitchell Trubisky leading your team or a Super Bowl Champion QB whom completed 25 straight passes before exiting last week's game with bruised ribs? The Bears defense has been great this season but there is something magical again (just like last season) about this Eagles team as certainly they were counted out by many when they dropped to 6-7 after that devastating (and ref-impacted) loss to the Cowboys. On the season the Eagles played a tougher schedule than the Bears. This line is offering tremendous underdog line value. The Bears are 0-6 SU (and 1-5 ATS) their last 6 against NFC East foes. The Eagles are 11-4 SU (and 10-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. They are hot again, Foles is feeling "it" again, and this team is truly feeling "it" again and also has had a chance to heal up some in their secondary. Keep in mind that is their biggest weakness (due to injuries all season long) but their defensive line (and offensive line for that matter) is one of the best in the game. Trubisky is not going to have much time to beat the Eagles downfield. They just won't give him time. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 1:05 ET - Give the Ravens credit for their big road win at Los Angeles last month. Certainly that road victory is going to have many backing Baltimore at home in this match-up. However, as per usual I am going contrarian and going with the Chargers in this match-up. Keep in mind that game at LA was played when the Chargers were in a divisional sandwich situation. They had just beat the Chiefs AT Kansas City and had another big divisional ROAD game on deck. In other words it was a definite flat spot for Los Angeles. Of course it goes without saying that the Chargers are NOT going to be flat here and I'll take Philip Rivers over Lamar Jackson at QB in a playoff game anytime anywhere. Keep in mind the Chargers are 7-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and their last 3 wins came at Denver (not an easy place to play) and Kansas City and Pittsburgh. That is no small feat! As for the Ravens, they wrapped up the season going 6-1 after going 4-5 prior to their bye week. However, Baltimore's wins (other than against the Chargers) came against a slate of sub-par teams! The Ravens other 5 wins came against teams with a combined 29-50-1 record. NONE of those 5 teams finished the season with a winning record. The Ravens are 4-8 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more consecutive games. In Sunday's match-up look for Baltimore to drop to 4-8 ATS on the season in games in which they are a favorite. The Chargers fully fit the definition of a "live dog" here! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Saturday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Just a couple days ago this line was very nearly a pick'em and now the Cowboys are inching closer to being a 3 point favorite as of early game day morning. With all due respect to the Cowboys, the Seahawks have some key edges here. First off at head coach I would take Pete Carroll over Jason Garrett any day of the week. Secondly at quarterback, I certainly like having the veteran leadership in crunch time of Russell Wilson over the talented but still learning Dak Prescott. Keep in mind too, when Prescott and the Cowboys have to play from behind, things become particularly problematic for them as Prescott seems to press and get rattled. The Cowboys are 2-9 SU in their last 11 playoff games. Certainly they do not have a good history while the Seahawks are a PERFECT 6-0 their last 6 Wild Card playoff games and 4 of those have been in the Pete Carroll era. Overall, under Carroll, the Seahawks are 7-3 in playoff games their last 10. This season Seattle has failed to cover just ONCE in NINE games with a line between +3 and -3. By comparison, the Cowboys have only 3 ATS win in NINE games with a line in that same range. That said, having the points here sure could prove handy though I do expect an outright upset win for the Seahawks! Seattle is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus NFC East teams. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS their last 4 versus teams with a winning record this season. Dallas has covered just 2 of their past 7 wild card round playoff games. The turnover battle has been won 3-0 in favor of the Seahawks in each of the past two meetings and look for that to be a key again here as Carroll has his team ready and the Cowboys make the crucial mistakes again. 10* SEATTLE |
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01-05-19 | Eastern Washington +16.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #801 Eastern Washington Eagles (+) vs North Dakota State Bison @ Noon ET in FCS Championship Game @ Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX - The Bison are looking to win their 7th title in the last 8 seasons. However, this will be the final game for North Dakota State head coach Chris Klieman as he accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State - replacing Bill Snyder home finally retired. This could be a bit of a distraction for the Bison no doubt. While they are the better team defensively in this match-up, the Eagles are arguably the better offense and grabbing the big points with Eastern Washington is the way to go. The Eagles have averaged 540 yards per game compared to 470 yards per game for the Bison. Eastern Washington QB Eric Barriere has stepped in and been fantastic (24 TDs, 7 INTs) after starting QB Gage Gubrud got hurt after just 5 games. The point being that the Eagles have been even better since the injury to Gubrud. Though the Bison have the huge experience edge in Title Games and have each of their last 6 appearances, the Eagles did win their only other appearance and it was here @ Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX in 2010. Considering the possible coaching distraction as well as the huge points that are offered, North Dakota State (currently as high as a 16.5 point favorite) are over-priced here. Yes the Bison have rolled through the playoffs but that has resulted in an inflated line here and, don't forget, the Eagles offense is so potent it certainly has backdoor cover potential (should that be needed) but I expect them to hang in tough throughout this game. 10* EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia -11 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
January Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #278 Tuesday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Sugar Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA - The Bulldogs are out to prove they belong in the CFB Playoffs and I expect they will do just that. Sure Georgia is disappointed about their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and the fact that kept them out of the Playoff. However, they've had a full month to get over that and they are out to prove they still should have gotten the call for the CFB Playoffs. In my mind, it already has been proven. While Georgia played Alabama very tough in the SEC Championship Game (and truly should have won) and also lost last year's CFB Championship to the Crimson Tide in OT, let's talk about Oklahoma for a second. Yes, the same Sooners team that beat these same Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game and very nearly rallied to beat the Horns in their annual Red River Rivalry Game during the regular season got absolutely annihilated by the Crimson Tide in the Bowl Playoff Game. The point is that just like Oklahoma getting smashed by Alabama, I feel another Big 12 team is going to find out they don't match up well with an SEC powerhouse either! The Bulldogs, in my mind, are right up there with Alabama and Clemson as the top 3 teams in the nation while Texas finished up the season going 3-3 SU in their last 6 games. The 3 wins for the Longhorns came against 3 Big 12 teams with a combined record of 16-21 this season. Texas allows nearly 100 yards more per game than Georgia and the Bulldogs ground game averages nearly 100 yards more rushing per game. UT enters this game on a 2-6 ATS run. The Bulldogs went 6-1 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and are a long-term 7-1 ATS in games in which they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Blowout alert! 10* GEORGIA |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky v. Penn State -6 | 27-24 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #272 Tuesday 8* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 1 ET in Citrus Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - Penn State head coach James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he came to the Nittany Lions beginning with the 2014 season. Of course the Commodores are an SEC team and Franklin has some extra familiarity with Kentucky as a result. In fact Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops began his career there in 2013 and Franklin's Vandy team beat Kentucky by 16 points in their lone meeting. Another double digit win is what I expect in this bowl game for Franklin's Nittany Lions. Note that Stoops has a losing record overall and has gone 0-2 in bowls while Franklin has enjoyed great success with Penn State and is also 3-1 ATS in bowls. Kentucky has a solid defense but their weakness is offense and the Wildcats simply won't be able to keep up with the Nittany Lions here. Also, when playing outside the SEC, Kentucky tends to be overvalued. The Cats are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. As for PSU, they are 19-2 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. While the Lions enter this bowl game having won 3 straight games, Kentucky wrapped up the season on a mediocre 4-3 SU run and went an ugly 2-5 ATS in those game. 8* PENN STATE |
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12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State +9 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #264 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 3:45 ET in Liberty Bowl @ Liberty Bowl Stadium in Memphis, TN - I love taking the undervalued 6-6 team in a spot like this. Of course the Tigers are a big favorite as they are 8-4 and play in the SEC. However, not enough respect is being given to a Cowboys team that has a very dangerous offense. In fact, the Oklahoma State offense is the exact type of offense that makes a team a threat for a backdoor cover should one be needed here. That's because the Cowboys can score in a hurry. I also like the fact that OSU has gone 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) in non-conference games. Additionally, the Cowboys are on a 8-2 ATS run (including 7 outright upsets!) as an underdog! Keep in mind, the underdog is on a PERFECT 7-0 ATS run in Oklahoma State's last 7 games. The Cowboys beat West Virginia and Texas during that stretch plus lost by just a single point as a 3 TD underdog against Oklahoma! As for Missouri, the Tigers lost to Kentucky and South Carolina plus lost by 2 TDs to Georgia and 4 TDs to Alabama. The point is that, even though Missouri is 8-4 this season, they did struggle against quality opposition. That said, I am comfortable challenging them to win this game by double digits. Missouri is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) when playing with 2 or more weeks between games. Also, the Tigers long-term run in December games is an ugly 4-11 SU (3-12 ATS). Look for those trends to continue here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-30-18 | Bears +6 v. Vikings | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #325 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - No offense intended to former Redskins QB Kirk Cousins but the results speak for themselves. The Vikings signal-caller had played his entire career with the Redskins prior to coming to Minnesota this season. That is noteworthy because Washington for the past 7 seasons ended their year with a loss (SU and ATS) whether it was a regular season game (5) or a playoff game (2). Full disclosure, Cousins was only the QB for 4 of those games but the point is that all 4 games were losses both SU and ATS and he certainly does NOT have a reputation as a winner in the biggest of games. This is a huge game for the Vikings. Win and they are in the playoffs. However, they face a Bears team that still has a chance to improve their seeding for the post-season and Chicago also would love to eliminate a division rival from making the post-season. That said, while the betting markets continue to back the Vikings here (line keeps moving up), I am happy to grab the value on the other side. The fact is that much is being made of Minnesota's improvement on offense since they made the switch at offensive coordinator. However, the Vikings two wins came against the Dolphins and the Lions. Those teams are a combined 12-18 on the season and Miami is truly even worse than their 7-8 record indicates. Either way, two wins over two losing teams is important to note because Minnesota is 0-5 SU this season against teams that are in the playoff field (Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Saints, and these same Bears). The point is that now you have the Vikes laying nearly a full TD against a playoff team and they have not even beaten a playoff team this season! Also, Cousins reputation is not exactly one that exudes confidence in a potential "win or go home" game like this. Give me the Bears plus the points all day every day in a situation like this one! 8* CHICAGO |
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12-30-18 | Eagles -6.5 v. Redskins | Top | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles post-season hopes are still alive. With a win here at Washington and a Vikings loss Philadelphia makes the playoffs. Certainly teams never try to worry about what the other teams are doing but, in the back of their minds, Eagles players know that a Minnesota loss is at least "possible" as the Vikes are playing an 11-4 Bears team that also still has motivation for playoff seeding purposes. Even without that, Philly would be going "all out" here as QB Nick Foles has stepped right in for the injured Carson Wentz and resumed his late season "magic" once again just like he did in last season's run that led to being Super Bowl Champions. The Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games. The injury-depleted Redskins, once atop the NFC East not so long ago, have certainly gone the other direction. Washington has lost 5 of its last 6 games and this one has the makings of a road rout with Philadelphia fully capable of dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball. In terms of technical support here, the Eagles are 10-4 SU (and 9-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Redskins are 0-3 SU (and ATS!) in their last 3 meetings with the Eagles and all 3 games were decided by a double digit margin. Look for that to be the case again in this one as well! Also, an interesting note here about Washington is they are 0-7 SU (and ATS!) in their final game of the season the last 7 years! 5 times it was a regular season game and 2 times it was a playoff game. All 7 seasons ended with a SU (and ATS!) loss and all 7 defeats came by 8 or more points. Considering that fact as well as the extremely injury-ravaged condition of the Redskins current roster, this one looks to take that "season-ending" ATS losing streak to 8 in a row! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #256 Saturday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Cotton Bowl @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 4 ET - Doesn't it seem surprising to see an undefeated team that statistically has played the tougher schedule installed as a double digit dog? As expected, the public sure thinks so! The Fighting Irish have received plenty of attention in terms of number of tickets written but the sharp money (including mine!) is on Clemson here. The Tigers have the playoff experience and are so strong in the trenches! I look for the Clemson defensive line to be particularly dominant in this game and that will be a key. The Tigers last 8 games featured one rare poor game defensively against South Carolina (but Clemson still won by a 21 point margin) but the other 7 games saw them allow just 9.9 points per game! The Fighting Irish have covered only twice in their last six games. Notre Dame was somewhat fortunate in their win at USC to close out the regular season and that was the 5th time this year that the Irish have been held to 24 points or less. The Tigers have NEVER been held below 27 points this season and they've played 13 games. In fact, in 10 of those games they scored 35 points or more. Knowing how dominant the Tigers defense is and how dynamic their offense is, this one is going to turn into a rout. It may stay close early but look for Clemson, as per usual, to exert their dominance as they wear down Notre Dame as the game goes on. The Fighting Irish are on a 6-13 ATS run in bowl games. The Tigers are 11-4 ATS (including 5-1 this season) when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Tigers head coach Swinney is 8-3 ATS in bowls and they're looking to make up for last year's loss in the CFB finals. Fighting Irish coach Kelly is just 3-4 SU and ATS in bowls. Advantage to the big favorite here all the way around and I expect a blowout rout. 10* CLEMSON |
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12-29-18 | Florida +6 v. Michigan | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #249 Saturday 8* Florida Gators (+) vs Michigan Wolverines in Peach Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ Noon ET - Florida went 4-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season while Michigan went 1-2 ATS. The Wolverines are also an ugly 1-4 ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The Gators are 4-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Michigan enters this bowl having failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. A number of Wolverines players are out for this game including RB Karan Higdon. Look for them to still have a bit of a hangover too from the demoralizing season-ending blowout loss to Ohio State. Gators head coach Mullen is 5-2 SU in bowls. Michigan head coach Harbaugh has a losing record in bowls after being the lone Big Ten to lose in the bowls last year. Look for the Wolverines to continue to be a disappointment here. 8* FLORIDA |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 34-18 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #244 Friday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Syracuse Orange @ 5:15 ET in Camping World Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - The Mountaineers were favored by a TD before QB Will Grier announced he was skipping the bowl. While the absence of star QB Grier is significant, we've now seen a 10-point swing on this line as West Virginia has gone from a 7 point favorite to a 3 point dog. The Mountaineers TEAM is not made up of just ONE player. Also, the QB that West Virginia will use is not some guy they just picked up yesterday off the streets. 6'6 Jack Allison is a sophomore whom played in multiple games this season. Trey Lowe III, a 6'2 freshman, will also be available. With the extra practice time afforded by all the bowl practices the Mountaineers have an "wide open playbook" for this one per coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia is aware of the line on this game. They are aware that no one is giving them a chance in this game without Grier. Yes I am aware of WR Gary Jennings JR and offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste also being out for this game. However, the Orange defense (which was already a MAJOR weakness of the team) is expected to be without a defensive end, defensive tackle, AND defensive back for this bowl game! Syracuse does have a strong offense but, from playing the high-flying Big 12, West Virginia is certainly used to facing high-paced dangerous offenses. The Mountaineers are also highly motivated here because, as noted above, no one is giving them a chance in this one. The Orange are just 2-3 SU in their last 5 games away from home. West Virginia went 3-1 away from home this season prior to a tough 4-point loss at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers went an undefeated 3-0-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Orange went only 2-2 SU against teams with a winning record this season. I am happy to fade the masses here as Syracuse plays in the ACC. Think about it. Who impressed in the ACC this season other than, of course, Clemson! The Orange are over-rated and the Mountaineers defense, constantly ridiculed, gives one of its best efforts of the season today to support the Grier-less offense. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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12-27-18 | Duke v. Temple -3 | 56-27 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #235 Thursday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 1:30 ET in Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA - Temple has an interim coach but it the same interim coach they had for their bowl game after the 2016 season. In other words, there is still some continuity here. Also, the Owls dominated on defense for much of the season. Temple allowed 19 points or less in 8 of their last 12 games. Taking a look at the Blue Devils defense, they allowed 329 rushing yards per game their last 5 games. In other words, they faded badly as the season went on. Also, a key player on defense, Jon Giles-Harris, is still being bothered by a knee injury and the Duke linebacker is questionable for this game. Yes, the Blue Devils played a tougher schedule than Temple did but they wrapped up the season with back to back losses and the Blue Devils are the type of team that, when they get in a funk, it often continues. In fact, Duke is 4-11 SU the last 15 times when off a loss in conference action. Also, the Blue Devils are 6-11 SU (including 1-3 SU this season) when facing a team with a winning record. Temple is 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Owls are also 11-2 ATS (including 4-0 ATS this season) in games played on turf. With QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead both upgraded to probable for this game. Look for the Owls to take advantage of a Duke defense that faded as the season went on. 8* TEMPLE |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs -1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - While it may surprise some that the Chiefs are favored here considering the Seahawks long-term success at home, do note that KC is on a 16-5 ATS run as a road favorite. I like the fact that we can take the Chiefs off a loss here. Kansas City has yet to lose two straight games this season. The Seahawks are off a loss as well but they've already had a pair of 2-game losing streaks this season and this is a tough match-up for them. Seattle is going to have trouble keeping up with the #1 rated offense in the league. The Seahawks pass protection is much worse than that of the Chiefs. KC is 5-1-1 ATS on the road this season and also a long-term 21-9-1 ATS in games against NFC West opponents. Seattle is on a 3-7 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a regular season. The Chiefs are averaging 39 points per game on the road this season. The Seahawks have been held to 28 points or less in 10 of their 14 games this season. The Chiefs have scored 30 points or more in 10 of their last 14 games. While the Seahawks have the better defense in this match-up they've also been fortunate in terms of yardage allowed compared to points allowed. Additionally, their defensive edge over Kansas City is not nearly as significant as the Chiefs offensive edge over Seattle. Lay the small number with the away team and look for a road rout in this one! 10* KANSAS CITY |
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12-23-18 | Bucs +7.5 v. Cowboys | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Sunday 7* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys rate as the superior defense in this match-up but, statistically, the Buccaneers have the edge on the offensive side of the ball except for one key variable: turnovers. Tampa Bay has been done in by turnovers this season but they actually have moved the ball quite well for most of this season. As a result, we're getting solid line value here with the Bucs as a big dog and all the pressure on the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is playing for price and will play loose and relaxed. Dallas is still trying to lock up the NFC East after getting blasted 23-0 at Indianapolis last week. The Cowboys have an NFC East rivalry game next week at New York against the Giants so they really want to clinch the division this week. That is why, as noted above, all the pressure is on Dallas here. The Cowboys have a history of late season struggles and that includes their current long-term run of 40-62-4 ATS in December games. The Buccaneers are on a strong 8-3 ATS run when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're matched up with a team with a winning record. They've got a great shot at being the spoiler here. Even though the Cowboys won 5 straight games prior to last week's loss, all the games were decided by single digits with an average margin of victory of just 5.4 points. The Bucs have failed to cover only 1 of their past 5 games. 7* TAMPA BAY |
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12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles -1.5 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #114 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Eagles are rejuvenated with Nick Foles taking over for the injured Carson Wentz and coming off the biggest Eagles upset win in 33 years last week. Philly took down the Rams in Los Angeles as a double digit dog for their biggest underdog upset victory since 1985. The Eagles are still very much alive in the playoff race but they need this win Sunday over the visiting Texans. Houston is 6-13 SU against NFC East opponents and also has not covered any of their 3 games against NFC East teams this season. Also, Houston is on a 1-8-1 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a regular season. The Eagles are on a 14-5-1 ATS run in games played against AFC opponents. Philly is on an 11-6 ATS run when, past the midway point of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. So this match-up features a team that generally fades late against a team that has been "bringing it" in late season games. The Texans last 4 road wins came against teams that, entering Sunday, have a combined 21-36 record on this season. Now they face the defending Super Bowl champs that are fighting for their playoff lives and also playing their final home game of the season. The Eagles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This strength along both the offensive line and defensive line is a key to beating a team like the Texans. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #124 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) vs Baltimore Ravnes @ 8:20 ET - Yes the Ravens have won 4 of their last 5 games. However, all 4 wins came against teams currently in last place in their respective divisions. Atlanta and Tampa Bay are tied for last place in the NFC South. The Bengals are in the cellar in the AFC North and the Raiders are in the basement in the AFC West. Those 4 teams are a combined 18 games under .500 on the season! However, all these recent wins for Baltimore are helping to keep this line lower than it should be and I won't hesitate to take advantage with a Chargers team that still has a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC post-season picture! The Ravens are 2-4 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Chargers are 3-0 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Considering LA is also at home for this one and the line has dropped to a -4 as of early Saturday morning, there is great value with the small home favorite. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest v. Memphis -3.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #222 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (-) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Noon ET - The absence of QB Sam Hartman and WR Greg Dortch is very significant for the Demon Deacons whereas the absence of RB Darrell Henderson for the Tigers is made up for by the fact they have another very talented runner in Patrick Taylor. Wake Forest finished the season with a blowout win at Duke but, prior to that, the Demon Deacons had allowed at least 316 passing yards in 4 of their 5 prior games. Wake Forest was so torched through the air in their two games just prior to the Blue Devils win, teams didn't have to run the ball on them well. But do not that prior to that the Demon Deacons run defense allowed 253 yards per game. The Tigers, even without Henderson, have Taylor and Tony Pollard and will do plenty of damage against this struggling run defense. The Demon Deacons went 2-7 ATS in games played on turf this season while the Tigers went 7-4 ATS on turf and will take advantage of the fast track at Legion Field in Birmingham, AL. Wake Forest is also on a 1-4 ATS run when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games while Memphis is on a 4-2 ATS run when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The Tigers defense got embarrassed in their loss at Central Florida 3 weeks ago (the 2nd time they blew a double-digit 2nd half lead against the Golden Knights this season) and they will make up for that here. 10* MEMPHIS |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #213 Wednesday 8* Ohio University Bobcats (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Ohio University has lost 5 of 7 against Mountain West Conference opponents. San Diego State is undefeated all-time against Mid-American Conference opponents. 13 wins and 1 tie in 14 meetings with MAC foes. That said, the odds makers are clueless, right? They made Ohio University the favorite in this match-up. This is a gift, right? While this will be the prevailing thought among many bettors, of course neither of those statements are true. Long-time followers know how I feel about situations like this and I expect the Bobcats to prevail and get a huge win in this win. Keep in mind this is not the same Aztecs team we've seen in recent seasons while Ohio University wrapped up the season going 7-2 SU in their last 9 games. In fact, while the Bobcats were very impressive in beating Buffalo 52-17 late in the year (and have now scored 49 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games), San Diego State has dropped 3 straight to end the season even with Chapman and Washington back! Also, 2 of the 3 losses were home games against UNLV and Hawaii where Aztecs were double digit favorites and lost outright! The once vaunted San Diego State defense has allowed 447.3 yards per game their last 3 games. The past 2+ seasons, the Aztecs are 3-9 ATS in games played against teams with a winning record. The Bobcats, in the same period of time, are 7-1 ATS in games played against teams with a winning record. 8* OHIO UNIVERSITY |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +2.5 v. UAB | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #211 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) vs UAB Blazers in Boca Raton Bowl @ 7 ET - The location of this bowl game (Boca Raton, FL) certainly favors the Blazers. However, the Huskies have faced a much tougher schedule this season UAB has. This is leading to some significant line value here with Northern Illinois. Additionally, I like the way the Huskies rallied against a quality Buffalo team to win the MAC Championship Game on the final day of November. Of course UNI is known for their quality defense but to see them comeback like they did against the Bulls also says a little something about the offensive capability of this team. The Huskies average points per game their last 11 games has been held down by two poor performances (vs Mia-OH and @ BYU). In the other 9 games, Northern Illinois has averaged scoring 25.8 points per game. The Huskies have a strong ground game on offense but it was also impressive to see them throw for 300 yards in the MAC Championship win over Buffalo. UAB has the better record on the season but has faced the much softer schedule and I look for the Blazers to be exposed in this game! Also, UAB is 0-3 (SU and ATS) in games played on grass and 0-2 (SU and ATS) in games against MAC opponents. UNI is a long-term 25-13 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Also, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) this season in games against teams with a winning record. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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12-16-18 | Eagles +13 v. Rams | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #329 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Carson Wentz is out. Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles steps in. Yes the Eagles are having a rough season and nothing has seemed to go their way but they still should not be this large of a favorite in this Sunday night game when you consider a number of factors. First off, Foles has certainly shown he is the type of player capable of rising to the occasion. Secondly, the NFC final wild card spot is still up for grabs so the Eagles are not without motivation here. Thirdly, the Rams have covered only 2 of their last 10 games! They continue to be over-inflated by the betting markets. Los Angeles is 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games too! This is a revenge game for the Rams as the Eagles beat them here in LA last season. However, under coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 2-5-2 ATS (just 2 covers in 9 tries) when they are at home playing with revenge. Philadelphia is 10-6 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. Also, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS when off a divisional loss. Yes the Eagles are banged up but they still have plenty to play for here and one should expect a huge effort in a prime-time game with their season still having hopes of a push for a wild card spot. The Eagles won't quit until the final whistle here and the point-spread is inflated. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #326 Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - This is the Niners final home game against a division rival this season (host NFC North foe Chicago next week) and I look for them to make the most of it. San Francisco is catching Seattle at the right time to spring the upset. The Seahawks are off their Monday night win over Minnesota that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Now the Seahawks are on the road and on a short week and are facing a 49ers team that has averaged 345.5 passing yards per game their past two games! The first of those two games was at Seattle and the Niners outgained the Seahawks by 121 yards but lost 43 to 16 on the scoreboard. That is a statistical anomaly that we can now take advantage of in terms of public perception this week. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS as a divisional home dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off a SU win. Yes the Seahawks got a big win over the Vikings Monday but Seattle went 2-6 ATS in their final 4 regular season games the past two seasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Both teams are off key divisional wins but the Colts are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when they are off a game versus the Texans. Also, Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS when they are at home off a divisional game and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .600. Remember too that Colts head coach Frank Reich used to be with the Eagles and helped lead them to their Super Bowl victory last year. You can see how Philadelphia is now struggle without Reich and the other key factor here is that he knows the Cowboys well from having spent the past two season as an offensive coordinator with Philly. In the 3 meaningful games against the Cowboys (remember that season-ending one last year was meaningless), Reich led the Eagles offense to average 29 points per game against the Cowboys in his two seasons with Philadelphia. He and the Colts will get the job done again here in a key game for them while Dallas falls flat after yet another big victory aided by the officiating..a recurring them in recent games for the Cowboys. Reality finally sets in this week on the road. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern -3 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Southern Eagles (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 5:30 ET - Eastern Michigan is 0-3 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. Eastern Michigan had a late season bye and that doesn't necessarily help them here as they will be playing for just the 2nd time since their November 10th win versus Akron. Also, Eastern Michigan is 1-12 ATS when they face an opponent off B2B SU (and ATS) wins. That system fits here as Georgia Southern finished off the season with back to back wins and covers. Unlike Eastern Michigan, Georgia Southern did have a game on Saturday November 17th. This should lead to a little less "rust" for them in comparison with Eastern Michigan. Army, a ground-based attack like Georgia Southern, completely dominated time of possession in a win at Eastern Michigan in late October. Look for Georgia Southern to dominate in similar fashion with their option attack in this game. Eastern Michigan was 3-0 SU to finish the season but they benefited greatly from turnovers in those 3 games. Nothing close to that is likely to happen here as Georgia Southern has done a great job in the turnover department all season long. The ATS trends noted above are 19-1 / 95% in our favor here. 10* GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - This is contrarian all the way. The Chiefs have won 9 straight meetings with the Chargers and yet opened up as only a 3-point favorite at home here. Of course the line has already gone up a little (3.5 as of early game day morning) but an upset is likely here. The Chargers out-gained the Chiefs by nearly 200 yards in the first meeting in Los Angeles but fell short on the scoreboard. Payback time here. LA is on a 12-3-1 ATS run as a road dog in divisional games. Kansas City is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-10-18 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #133 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks are off a huge win and have won 3 straight games. However, Mike Zimmer's Vikings are finally getting a shot at revenge after that unbelievable playoff loss (missed chip shot FG) ended Minnesota's season. Note that Zimmer entered this season with ATS records of 25-9 when playing with revenge and 11-1 when facing an opponent off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Here Zimmer's Vikings catch Seattle off a 27 point thrashing of the 49ers. Also, in games 13 through 16 of a season Minnesota has gone 8-1 ATS as a road dog when they are facing an opponent off a home game. This game is sandwiched between divisional games for the Seahawks as they are off the Niners and then play them again at San Francisco Sunday. Seattle is 1-6 ATS in games played week before facing SF. The Seahawks were actually outgained by more than 100 yards by the 49ers last week but won the game thanks to 3 turnovers. In fact, Seattle's defense has not impressed and they allowed 28 points per game their 4 prior games and certainly should have allowed much more than 16 versus the Niners last week. Minnesota's defense did struggle at Foxboro last week versus the Patriots but, prior to that, they had been rock solid and I am expect them to return to top form in this crucial game filled with post-season impact. Grab the points here but expect the upset. 10* MINNESOTA |
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12-09-18 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Yes the Cowboys have a rest edge here. However, they are off a huge upset win of the Saints. Also, the Eagles lost to Dallas in Philadelphia 4 weeks ago. The revenge-seeking Eagles are 15-5 ATS as a divisional road dog. The road team is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 games in this series and Philly has covered 3 of their last 4 games at Dallas. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS when off a game against the Redskins. Also, Philadelphia is gaining confidence with back to back wins for the first time this season as the Super Bowl champions look to get their swagger back. They can tie up the Cowboys for 1st in the division with a win here so there is no concern that it is "too late" in the Eagles locker room. Could the Dallas upset of the Saints leave the Cowboys a little flat here? Note that the Eagles, in divisional games, when facing an opponent off a SU home dog win, have gone 7-1 ATS! Last but not least, when head coach Doug Pederson is off a divisional game (beat Redskins last week) and playing with revenge, has gone 5-1 ATS with the Eagles. Yes I am aware of the injury issues for the Eagles secondary but look for the road dog to rise up here after the embarrassment of that home loss 4 weeks ago with their powerful defensive line play being the difference in this rematch. On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz and company had over 400 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the first game and also did it again with over 400 yards versus the Redskins last week. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-09-18 | Giants -3 v. Redskins | 40-16 | Win | 105 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #121 Sunday 8* New York Giants (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - I am aware of the fact that Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr is out for this game. However, the Redskins are in far worse shape as they are down to their 3rd string QB and dealing with an injury-depleted offensive line. That said, I also like the fact that the Giants are seeking payback for a home loss to the Redskins in late October. Note that New York head coach Pat Shurmur entered this season 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off a divisional game (Washington was at Philadelphia last week) and also 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off B2B SU losses (the Redskins have lost 3 straight). Additionally, the Giants are 12-1 ATS in divisional games when they are on the road off a non-divisional SU win and facing a team off a SU loss. New York is also 4-0 ATS in games played on grass this season. Washington is 11-22 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. Look for the short rest to again be a factor for the Redskins as the Giants, supported by their 32-3 (91%) ATS trends noted above, roll to a road rout in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars +5 v. Titans | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Jaguars have had a disappointing season but that makes games like this, at this late stage in the season, even more important. In other words, here is a chance to really put a dent in the playoff hopes of a hated divisional foe. You can bank on Jacksonville wanting to make the most of this primetime opportunity with the entire NFL world watching. These are the games that see underachieving teams rise to the occasion. Riding the momentum of a shutout win over another division rival (Colts) last week, look for another strong effort from the Jags this week. Yes, Cody Kessler's career numbers at QB may not impress but he played the last two seasons in Cleveland. In other words, cut Kessler a little slack and also look for Leonard Fournette to help take some of the pressure off with some big runs. In terms of technical support here, the Jaguars are 9-1 ATS when they have a losing record, are entering a game off a SU win of less than 7 points, and are facing a divisional foe that is off a non-divisional match-up. That system fits perfectly here. Also, Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS when they are off a game versus a divisional foe in which they scored less than 7 points! Last but certainly not least, the Jags are a stellar 11-2 ATS when they dogs of less than 6 points and off a game in which they allowed less than 10 points. Look for the road dog, very strong defensively, to get revenge for the upset loss to Tennessee at home early this season as a double digit favorite. even if the Jaguars fall short of the outright win over the Titans, look for the points to still prove to be enough for the cover in this one. Supported by combined ATS trends of 28-3 (90%) per the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #380 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are a very banged up team and the Eagles will take advantage. We're getting line value here because it has, without a doubt, been a sub-par season (to put it mildly) for the defending Super Bowl Champs. The fact is that, with a win Monday night, Philadelphia moves into a 2nd place tie with Washington in the NFC East and will be just 1 game behind the Cowboys. That said, guess what is up next on the Eagles schedule. A trip to Dallas on Sunday. In other words, the season is still very much alive for Philly despite the ups and downs they've endured. The Redskins offense is loaded with injuries and it is much more than just QB Alex Smith's devastating injury that has them in trouble here. Washington's offensive line has practically been gutted by injuries. The Eagles powerful defensive line will take advantage. Note that Philadelphia is 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) in home games with an O/U posted between 42.5 and 45 points. Also, the Redskins are on a long-term 10-23 ATS run in Monday night games including 0-5 in recent seasons! The Eagles saved their season with last week's comeback win over the Giants and the way they played that 2nd half is the way they will come out and attack the Redskins right away beginning with the opening kick-off in this one. The result should be a home rout for the much healthier offense in this match-up. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #376 Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - The Patriots have won 7 of their last 8 games and when they win SU they almost always cover. The SU winner in New England's games this season is, in fact, 10-1 ATS this season and I fully expect a dominating home win and cover here. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also have gone 8-2 ATS in December games the past two seasons. The Vikings wins this season have all come against teams that currently have a losing record on the year. In their 3 games against teams that currently have a winning record on the season, Minnesota has gone 0-3 and all 3 losses came by 5 or more points. Those Vikings losses came against the Bears, Saints, and Rams. As for the Patriots they've played 4 games against teams that currently have a winning record. New England has gone 4-0 in those games and only one win came by less than 7 points. The average margin of victory in those 4 games was 8 points. The Pats have beaten the Colts, Texans, Bears, and Chiefs. I'll take the team that has risen to the occasion when its been required this season and I feel we're getting good value here as the spread on this game has dropped through the week. The Patriots are 12-1-1 ATS when they are off a divisional road game and now facing a non-divisional opponents. Look for the Pats to do it again Sunday after last week's blowout win at New York against the Jets. Note that last week's win for the Vikings over Green Bay was the first time in 5 tries that Minnesota has covered a game following a divisional game. After that big win over the Pack, look for the Vikes to fall flat here against a Patriots team on a typical December "mission" as the Pats are known for late season success, especially at Foxboro! 10* NEW ENGLAND |
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12-01-18 | Fresno State +1 v. Boise State | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #317 Saturday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Boise State Broncos @ 7:45 ET in MWC Championship Game at Albertson's Stadium in Boise, ID - The Broncos continue to find a way to get past the Bulldogs in recent meetings despite the great improvement we've seen from Fresno State recently. I feel strongly however that Boise State's "luck" runs out here. The Broncos are a great team but they are not on the level they were in other recent campaigns. Though Boise State has beaten Fresno State in each of their 2 most recent meetings, the Bulldogs have had a lead in each of the last 3 games (including leads at half-time and beyond and into 4th quarter) and yet have lost each of the last 2 games. It is payback time here. I know that Boise has the location edge here but the Broncos strength is their passing game and Fresno State has a strong pass defense. That said, the key edge here is the Bulldogs potent passing attack going against a Boise State pass defense that has struggled at times this season. Winds will be light for this game so despite chilly temperatures and some light snow or light rain, the passing game can flourish with no impact expected from wind here. That said, the Bulldogs hold a big edge thanks to being the much better pass defense. Finally they get their revenge here. Boise State is 1-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. Fresno State is 12-2 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Road team revenge here for the Bulldogs. 10* FRESNO STATE |
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12-01-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma -8 | 27-39 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Big 12 Championship Game @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - Big mistake by the odds makers, right? They made Oklahoma more than a TD favorite here even though each of the 3 most recent meetings have been decided by 5 or less points. Of course it is not a "mistake" folks. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points with the Sooners here but, of course, it is not without good reason. These teams last met on October 6th and that 3-point loss for Oklahoma ended up getting their defensive coordinator fired. Though the Sooners defense has been "up and down" since then, they have not forgotten the loss to UT as well as the subsequent dismissal of their DC. Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU since that defeat and the average margin of victory has been 14 points. I am expecting an OU win by at least that margin in this "rematch" game! The Sooners are 12-6 ATS in games against teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas is 3-7 ATS when the Horns enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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11-30-18 | Utah +6 v. Washington | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday 8* Utah Utes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - The Utes are dealing with injury issues at QB and RB but they gained a lot of confidence with last week's comeback win over BYU. Utah was actually down 20 late in the 3rd quarter and then came all the way back and won the game 35 to 27. That game, of course, was not a factor in the Pac-12 so the fact the Utes closed that game strong gives them plenty of momentum now heading into the Pac-12 Championship. Of course this is a contrarian play as the early line move has gone the way of Washington. That is because of the injury situation for Utah as well as the fact that the Huskies beat the Utes by two touchdowns earlier this season. However, note that Washington has since gone 1-7 ATS as a favorite (last week's win at Washington State was a dog). I like the fact that the Utes are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog and 14-5 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. Utah has turned the ball over just once in its last 3 games while the Huskies turned the ball over 3 times against the Cougars last week. Washington has now turned the ball over 7 times in its last 4 games away from home. The Huskies have held the upper hand in this match-up in recent years but payback is on order for the Utes in this one. Utah has forced 11 turnovers in it last 4 games away from home. The Utes are 13-2 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage under .850 that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Huskies, off that 13 point win at Washington State, fall short of the cover in this one and I am expecting an upset but grabbing the generous points being offered. 8* UTAH |
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11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 New Orleans Saints (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are 10-0 SU their last 10 games and 9-0 ATS their last 9 games. While the Cowboys certainly deserve some respect here, I am happy to lay the points here (currently some 7's available as of Wednesday evening) with one of the best and most balanced offenses in the league. Not only does that describe New Orleans, the Saints also are the #1 rush defense in the NFL! That is significant here because the Cowboys are one of the worst passing teams in the leagues. Dallas relies on Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game for success on offense and that is a problem here. Not only is Elliott up against the #1 ranked run defense, he also has been a little bothered by his hip heading into this game. Elliott is probable but is he really 100%? It may not matter anyway as the Saints are just too much offense for other teams to keep up with. The fact is that New Orleans is firing on all cylinders right now and I also like the fact that the Saints are 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more this season. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, the Saints are a long-term 9-3 SU and ATS in their last dozen meetings with the Cowboys. Dallas has won 3 straight games and faced the Redskins, Falcons and Eagles. The Cowboys average margin in those 3 games was 6 points. The Saints also have recently faced the Falcons and Eagles plus also faced the Redskins in early October. The average margin of New Orleans 3 victories was 26 points - a 20 point variance from the Cowboys margin. The fact is I would not be surprised to see the Saints win this one by 20 but certainly I am expecting at least a double digit margin here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - Both the Packers and Vikings are off losses last week and, as a result, with the Bears win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, Chicago is running away with the NFC North Division. That means this game features a match-up of two teams desperately trying to stay alive in the playoff picture. Even though the first game between these teams this season finished in a tie, this truly is a revenge game for the Packers. Green Bay, at home, had a 13-point lead entering the 4th quarter of that match-up. Also, the Packers gave up a touchdown AND the 2-point conversion with less than a minute to go in the game. Suffice to say, Aaron Rodgers and Company have had this game circled in red ever since! Keep in mind the Vikings were also helped in that 4th quarter comeback by a controversial roughing the passer penalty. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay is 0-5 SU on the road this season. As long-time followers know I tend to be a contrarian and this is particularly true in the NFL. Ask yourself this: how can the Vikings be favored by only about a FG here when they are 9-2 SU their last 11 at home and Packers are 0-5 SU their last 5 on the road? Exactly! When things look too easy they truly never are and I expect Green Bay to finally get that first road win Sunday night in a crucial game. I will grab the points, currently available at +3.5, as added "insurance" though should the Packers fall just short. GB is off a Thursday game so they do have extra rest and the Packers are 5-0 ATS when off a Thursday game. The Packers match-up very well with the Vikings and their biggest weakness (run defense) is one the Vikings (#31 out of 32 for rush offense) are unlikely to be able to take advantage of. That said, I'll take Rodgers over Kirk Cousins as the Vikings QB is 4-12 in primetime games in his career! 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins +8.5 v. Colts | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have won 4 straight games for the first time in 4 years. The Dolphins enter off their bye week. Miami has been struggling but has the rest edge here and will avenge a 2015 home loss to Indianapolis. The Dolphins out-gained the Colts by nearly 100 yards in that game but lost by 6 points. Miami is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they've faced the Colts at Indianapolis! The Colts entered this season having gone 1-10 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage over .400 that is off a SU/ATS loss. That system fits here as the Dolphins were crushed by the Packers before their bye week. Also, Indianapolis is in a divisional sandwich here as they faced the Titans last week and have Jacksonville on deck. The Colts are 2-7 ATS when they have a game with the Jaguars on deck. Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS when off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Also, the Colts are 1-6 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin against an AFC opponent. A lot of technical data to like here and this one sets up perfectly from a situational standpoint as well. Grab the generous points. 8* MIAMI |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals +1 | 35-20 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - This line has gone from the Bengals being a 3-point choice to now being a pick'em in this game as of early Sunday morning. I love the value we're getting here with a Bengals team that has former Browns head coach Hue Jackson serving as an assistant to Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis. Jackson joined the staff of Lewis two weeks ago after being fired by the Browns. Of course Jackson knows the Browns very well and, of course, there is plenty of motivation here. Cleveland is on an ugly 6-15 ATS run in divisional games. The Bengals are on a 7-0 SU (and ATS!) run in their last 7 games with the Browns! They've crushed them by an average margin of 21 points per game. More of the same expected here. 8* CINCINNATI |
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11-24-18 | Utah State +3 v. Boise State | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
The CFB Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah State (+) over Boise State @ 10:15 ET - Utah State's ground game is producing 217 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Boise State's rushing attack is producing 159 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. The Aggies also have an edge in terms of pass defense on the season. Utah State is allowing only 52.3% pass completions and 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Boise State is allowing 63% pass completions and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The winner of this game goes to the Mountain West title game (will face Fresno State) and Boise State is a popular choice here due to their very successful home record over many seasons. This home factoring for the Broncos is of course already playing a big role in the line because the Aggies are such a strong team and yet are getting points here due to Boise State's high success rate in home games.. The result here is line value with Utah State. The Aggies are seeking revenge for a blowout loss at home versus Boise State last season. Utah State was out-gained by only 26 yards in the prior year's meeting (at Boise State) and the year before that the Aggies blew out the Broncos 52-26. The point is that Utah State (last year notwithstanding) was starting to turn the corner in this series (under head coach Matt Wells) and I expect that to continue here on Saturday night. Also, the Broncos are off a big win at New Mexico and they are on an 0-5 ATS run when off a game against the Lobos. Of course that 5-0 ATS play against situation is in play here as Boise State is off a trip to New Mexico. The Aggies do enter this game on a 10-game winning streak SU. Also, the Broncos are 4-8 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. I expect an upset win here and won't be surprised when the Aggies win this game in a road rout. 10* Utah State |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC +12 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #226 Saturday 8* USC Trojans (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 8 ET - Huge line move toward Notre Dame here has opened up solid underdog value with home dog USC. The home team is actually on a 5-0 run (both SU and ATS) in this series. After what happened last season at South Bend (worst loss ever for Trojans in this storied long-time rivalry), I look for Southern Cal to give the Irish all they can handle here. Yes, it has been a down season for the Trojans this season and they need to get the upset win here to become bowl eligible. However, USC would be highly motivated here even if that wasn't the case. I know Notre Dame has had a fine season of course but the Trojans (despite their 5-6 record) are still a very talented football team that has played a schedule with a strength level just as strong as the one the Fighting Irish have faced. Also, Notre Dame is on a 3-6 ATS run in games played on grass and 3-8 ATS run in November games. Southern Cal is on an 8-2 SU run (and 7-3 ATS) in November games. The Trojans are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've hosted ND. Also, the Fighting Irish are on an 0-5 ATS run when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are on the road and facing a team playing with revenge. That systems fits perfectly here and I love the big home dog in a game that will be much more competitive than many are expecting. 8* SOUTHERN CAL |
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11-24-18 | SMU v. Tulsa +3 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Saturday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up with SMU barely favored. As expected the Mustangs have moved up to being a 3 point choice as of early game-day morning. Of course everyone jumped on the opportunity to fade a 2-9 Tulsa team. The Golden Hurricane, though only playing for pride, are looking to make the most of senior day and would love to spoil the Mustangs hopes of becoming bowl eligible. Though SMU certainly has some motivation to get the 6th win, don't underestimate the fact that they also have to be deflated after last week. Why? Well the Mustangs entered last week still having a shot at getting to the AAC title game. But SMU lost 28-18 at Memphis and was outgained 208 to 25 on the ground! Now the Mustangs go from playing for a shot to reach the AAC championship game to just playing to make a bowl. Certainly that is still motivation but how much will SMU have left in the tank? I feel it won't be enough to get by a Tulsa team looking to close out the season with a big home win and whom would love to end SMU's bowl hopes. The Golden Hurricane are allowing just 24.8 points per game in home games this season. The Mustangs are allowing 42.4 points per game in road games this year! SMU is a long-term 16-29 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Look for the Mustangs to drop to 4-8 (both ATS and SU) in games played in November. 8* TULSA |
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11-24-18 | Michigan -4.5 v. Ohio State | 39-62 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The first reaction here is to look at this game the line as "off" because the Wolverines are laying more than a field goal at Ohio State. Of course the reality is that Michigan is the much better team this season and this line is absolutely justified. In fact, this is a game that the Wolverines should win by a double digit margin and that is the reason this one easily earned a spot on my Saturday card. Michigan is allowing just 13.5 points and 234.8 yards per game on the season. The Buckeyes are allowing 24.6 points and 398.6 yards per games on the year. Ohio State did have a strong recent performance at Michigan State and defeated the Spartans by a final score of 26-6. However, in their other 3 games since mid-October, the Buckeyes have allowed 43.7 points per game and 508 yards per game. The opponents for those games were Maryland, Nebraska, and Purdue. NONE of those three teams have managed a winning record this season. Now the Buckeyes host a Michigan team that has won 10 straight games since their season opening loss to Notre Dame. Also, in that season-opening loss the Wolverines did outgain the Fighting Irish. Of course ND is now 11-0 on the season entering today's action. In other words, Michigan has impressed all season long. The Wolverines have gone 10-0 SU their last 10 and allowed just 12.5 points per game. during the win streak. Michigan has scored at least 31 points in 8 of those 10 games. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is mired in a 1-6 ATS skid. 8* Michigan |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #134 Friday 10* Top Play South Florida Bulls (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 4:15 ET - South Florida started the season 7-0 but has now lost 4 straight games. Certainly the Bulls were over-rated earlier this season. However, they are now at home catching 14.5 points (as of early Friday morning) in this rivalry game with Central Florida and they are catching the Knights at the perfect time. That is because UCF is off a huge win over Cincinnati last week. That game was expected to be a war (Knights at home and favored by just 7) and yet Central Florida won easily. It is off that type of game (with so much anticipation leading into it) that a team can end up struggling in the very next game. I do expect UCF to get the win here but by just a single score! South Florida is 8-2 (80%) ATS when they are facing a team with a winning record that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. Of course that system fits here for the Bulls and that was truly a massive victory for UCF last week. Long-term USF is on an 8-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bulls are 3-0 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points and 2 of the 3 wins were outright upsets! Don't be surprised if USF gives Central Florida all they can handle in this one and it goes down to the wire. 10* SOUTH FLORIDA |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are stream-rolling everyone right now so, of course, they're a popular choice in this match-up. However, their line is truly over-inflated and New Orleans is facing a division rival that, before a tight loss earlier this season, had beaten them in 3 of the last 4 games. Also, 2 of the Falcons last 4 visits to New Orleans have resulted in outright wins. I am not necessarily expecting an upset here but I am expecting the Falcons to stay well within this large number. How many times has Atlanta lost by more than 10 points to the Saints in the past 13 meetings? ZERO! Also, the Falcons are on an 11-3 ATS run in Thursday games. The Saints, under coach Sean Payton, are an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off a SU win by double digits, and facing an opponent off back to back SU losses! Also, under coach Payton, New Orleans is a poor 2-13 ATS as a favorite off a non-divisional game and facing a divisional opponent whom is playing with revenge. These are strong systems that each favor the big road dog Falcons here. The Saints are also 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. Statistically these teams match up much more closely than their won-loss records would lead you to believe. Look for this one to be tight all the way which means HUGE value with the BIG points. 10* ATLANTA |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State -12 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - As a general rule, it is a good idea to at least take a look at the underdog in rivalry games. That's because rivalry games have a bit of an "anything can happen" theme and also because they tend to play out "tighter" than many other games with less blowouts. However, just as with anything "typical" there are exceptions and this is one of them. Last year the Rebels upset the Bulldogs at Mississippi State and this is a legitimate revenge situation and the situation is absolutely perfect to back the revenging team. Why? Because the Bulldogs are so much better than the Rebels this season! Ole Miss is on an 0-4 SU run. Also, the Rebels have gone 0-7 ATS in SEC games this season! Mississippi is allowing nearly 500 yards per game this season! Conversely, Mississippi State's fantastic defense has allowed just 12.8 points per game and only 275.6 yards per game. The Bulldogs defense gave up just 24 points when they faced Alabama while the Rebels defense game up 62 points when they faced the Crimson Tide! Mississippi State has allowed 13 points or less in 8 of 11 games this season. Ole Miss has allowed at least 31 points in 5 straight games! The Rebels are allowing 36.3 points this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS as a favorite this season while Mississippi is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season. After losing QB Fitzgerald to injury in last season's game against the Rebels and eventually losing the game too (by 3 as a double digit favorite) it is payback time in 2018's meeting! 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Broncos have a number of situational edges here. The Huskies already have clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game so they really have nothing to play for there. The Broncos, though they do have 6 wins to have already clinched bowl eligibility, would certainly like to improve their bowl possibilities. Also, it is Western Michigan that is playing with revenge here as they lost last year's game by 4 points at Northern Illinois. Though the Broncos have lost 3 straight games they didn't play as bad in the two ugly losses as what the final scores from those games show. Additionally, in last week's 1 point loss to Ball State, Western Michigan actually outgained the Cardinals by about 200 yards. Also, the Huskies are averaging just 308 yards per game on the road this season and it will be tough for them to get much of a margin in this game (if they even do prevail) as, other than a big win at Akron, Northern Illinois has averaged just 16.6 points per game in their other 5 road games. The home team in this series has won 4 of the last 5 games SU in this series and the Broncos are catching about 6 points in this one. The Huskies are on a 3-7 ATS run as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. This is an "ugly home dog" play but this is the kind of late season situation that gets the cash more often than not. I expect an upset with the Broncos but will grab the extra insurance with the generous points being offered. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +2.5 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Huge game in the NFC North and a rare situation in that the Vikings are having to look UP in the standings at the Bears! Minnesota has won 3 straight games against Chicago and the Vikings are also off their bye week. They will be "more than ready" in this opportunity to leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the division. Even though Chicago has won 3 straight games, those victories all came against teams that not only have losing records on the season but actually each have only 3 wins on the season! The Vikings have played a tougher schedule than the Bears this season and yet have managed to hang "right there" with Chicago in the standings. Keep in mind the Vikings got an ATS win (or at worst "push") at the LA Rams earlier this season, they also beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in an outright upset AT Philly, and they also outgained the Saints by over 150 yards in their loss to New Orleans! Those are some strong performances against respectable teams and I feel we're getting great value here against a Bears team that, though improved, still has to show they can rise up in a huge game like this. Keep in mind that Chicago hasn't played a playoff game since 2010. The Vikings have played in 3 playoff games in the past 3 seasons under head coach Mike Zimmer. The reason I mention this is because this game is going to be played at a "playoff-level intensity" and the battle-tested Vikings have an edge in this type of game in my opinion. Note that head coach Zimmer has produced a 13-1 ATS record his last 14 in games against teams that are off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, Zimmer is 16-5 ATS when off a divisional game. The Bears are on a 5-16 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B home games. Last, but certainly not least, here is an interesting "kicker" to wrap this one up. Chicago is 0-12 ATS in divisional games when they are off a double digit SU win in which they also scored more than 28 points. Beautiful set-up here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +8 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #459 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are on a tremendous roll and looking like the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have played this season as just a shadow of the team that, in February, staked their claim as the best team in the NFL. Now Philadelphia gets a chance to knock their replacement, New Orleans, off their pedestal. I know this is a contrarian play but it is the type of situation that has cashed for me so many times in the past, it is the reason it is worthy of big investment for me in this situation Sunday. The Saints have won 8 straight games SU and they've won 7 straight games ATS. Conversely, the Eagles have lost 4 of their last 6 games SU. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-6 ATS skid since winning and covering their opening game this season. Why then the play on the Eagles? There is still plenty of talent on this team. Ever since the ugly road loss at Tampa Bay they've played better away from Philly this season than they have at home. They lost in OT at Tennessee but crushed the Giants in New York and beat the Jaguars in London. Granted not great teams but they've not lost a road game by more than 6 points all season. Even that ugly loss to TB was decided by just 6 points. In fact, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants is the only game they've been involved in this season that was decided by more than 7 points. The point is that these are still the defending super bowl champs and they are not an easy team to blowout no matter who you are. They are a strong team in the trenches on both sides of the ball and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Eagles are a much better team (proven by long-term records) when Johnson is out there. This is a key to success on offense, and keep in mind, the Saints defense ranks 27th based on points allowed this season. Yes New Orleans has a fantastic offense but the Eagles defense ranks 5th based on points allowed this season. Philadelphia has a dangerous pass rush and also does a great job of stopping the run. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league for qb sacks. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in non-divisional action and they have a big divisional game with Falcons on deck. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philly is 5-1 ATS when off a SU loss and facing an opponent that is off a SU win by double digits. That system fits perfectly here as the Saints blasted the Bengals last week. Also, one final "kicker" here that is also in play. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS when off a SU win by double digits and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a looking record on the season! Don't be surprised if the Eagles pull off the shocker here and win this game outright to improve on the ugly 4-5 season record they have. At the very least, they should get the cover and stay inside this inflated number! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | 22-19 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #454 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Good line value here because, as stated before, the betting markets have a short term memory. As a result, in a case like this, because the Cowboys are off the upset win of the Eagles and the Falcons are off an upset loss to the Browns, this line is being kept lower than it should be. The fact is that Atlanta had turned the corner before losing at Cleveland as they had won 3 straight. Also, Dallas had lost all 4 road games prior to that upset win. Now, in large part because of last week's results, we're able to get the Falcons laying just a field goal at home against the Cowboys. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Atlanta is 7-0 ATS when facing a team that has a losing record on the season and is off a SU divisional win. Of course that system fits perfectly here with the 4-5 Cowboys off the big upset at Philly. The Falcons have dominated Dallas in recent meetings and, in fact, the Cowboys are a poor 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC South opponents. That means this play is supported by combined edges on a 17-1 / 94% ATS run. 8* ATLANTA |
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11-18-18 | Steelers -5 v. Jaguars | 20-16 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - This line was up around a TD and has dropped to a 5 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and laying the points with the road favorite here. Many are surprised to see a team that came inches from the super bowl last season getting so many points on their home field. However, the Jaguars have faded big time this season and can't be trusted while the Steelers offense is rolling and should be able to pile up plenty of points here. Pittsburgh has averaged 35.4 points their last 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Steelers have won and covered 5 straight games while the Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and also have not gotten a single ATS win during this streak. There are two other keys here besides the current level of play of these team teams. The Steelers have a rest edge here since they had the Thursday game last week and also, the big one is that Pittsburgh has revenge from January's playoff loss (at home!) to the Jaguars. It is payback time here. I know Jacksonville has good ATS history versus the Steelers, particularly when at home, but this Jags team is a mess right now. Also, as home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Jacksonville is a long-term 9-20 ATS! I also like the fact that the Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. That SU dominance is noteworthy here as the team that has been the SU winner in every single Jaguars game and every single Pittsburgh game this season has been the ATS winner. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as the Steelers win and get the road cover in doing so. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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11-17-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Texas | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #417 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - This is the classic situation where I like backing the underdog. The higher ranked team is at home and is laying (in many spots) less than a field goal. Also, the team that is ranked higher is also off a big road win. This is the type of situation where many are enticed to simply lay the small number with the home team when the reality is there is good reason the line is so low. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and I expect that to favor Iowa State. The Cyclones come into this game extremely confident with wins in 5 straight games and averaging 35 points per game during this winning streak. It is no coincidence that this 5-game run has come with Brock Purdy at QB. The Iowa State quarterback has been red hot and I look for him to take advantage of a struggling UT defense today. The Longhorns are banged up in the secondary and, since their bye week on October 20th, the Horns have had to play 3 straight tough offenses. This wears a defense down as Texas has tried to stop Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech the past 3 weeks. The Longhorns, though the beat the Red Raiders last week, certainly have struggled to get stops! Texas has allowed 38 points per game their last 3 games and over 500 yards of offense in 4 of their last 5 games including each of these last 3. The Horns are beat up and road-weary as this will be just their 3rd home game since blasting TCU nearly two months ago! Iowa State has lost both match-ups with Texas since Matt Campbell took over as head coach. This game today has "payback" written all over it as the Cyclones are surging! The Longhorns, though they won in this role last week, are still an ugly 2-11 ATS when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are now facing a team playing with revenge. Like I said, UT got the job done in that role last week but this is rare for them and, this week, Iowa State gets their revenge! The Cyclones are on a 13-3 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record under coach Campbell and they get the job done again here. 10* IOWA STATE |
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11-17-18 | Boston College v. Florida State +1.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #400 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - When the lines first game out this one had to be a head-scratcher in most peoples books. Boston College is a ranked team and their loss to Clemson snapped a stretch that had seen the Eagles win 3 straight games SU and 4 in a row ATS. As for the Seminoles they've lost 3 straight games by a combined score of 148 to 51. That is an average losing margin of 32.3 points per game and yet this line opened up at nearly a pick'em! If there ever was a perfect play to fit into my contrarian system. This is it! Florida State is the type of team that is ultra-talented but yet has moments where they frustrate the hell out of their backers. The fact is that this line was set this way for a reason and I am grabbing the Noles as they catch the Eagles flat after that huge night game at home last week versus Clemson and with FSU having played better statistically than what the recent final scores would indicate. Long-term, in games with a line between +3 and -3, the Seminoles are on a 23-10 ATS run. Look for the Eagles to drop to 4-8 SU in their last dozen games played on grass. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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11-17-18 | Utah v. Colorado +7.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #364 Saturday 8* Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Utah Utes @ 1:30 ET - This is a tough spot for the Utes. Utah is off a big win versus Oregon and has another big home game with BYU on deck. The Buffaloes have a couple advantages here. Not only do they catch the Utes in a tricky scheduling spot, they are also at home and it is likely to be snowing during this game. Poor weather conditions generally tend to help the underdog and I like the fact we can get the Buffaloes at more than a TD in some spots as of early gameday morning. Colorado is 5-2 ATS in this series. Also, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. When the Utes are off a SU win which they also covered ATS, and are facing a team off B2B SU losses, Utah has gone 1-6 ATS. Combined edges of 16-4 / 80% ATS here are in favor of the Buffaloes and I believe Mother Nature favors the home team in this one too as a sizable home dog. Look for the Buffaloes to get the job done in their home finale. 8* COLORADO |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Seattle has home field edge here but, really, what else do they have? That is my point in looking at the Seahawks this season. Yes, they burned me last week as they stayed inside the big number at LA against the Rams. However, Seattle is still one of the worst teams in the league in terms of sack percentage allowed while Green Bay ranks roughly in the middle. Also, the Seahawks sack percentage on defense is strong but the Packers are even stronger. I will also take Aaron Rodgers over Russell Wilson any day of the week as my QB. I respect Wilson but the point is Seattle plays in a very weak NFC West because it only has the Rams as the Cardinals and 49ers struggles continue. Conversely, the Packers are annually dealing with the Vikings and now the Bears have risen up from the depths of mediocrity. Statistically, in terms of yardage allowed, these two defenses are very similar. Offense is where the edge goes to the Packers are they are averaging nearly 100 yards more through the air than the Seahawks are this season. I realize Seattle put up some big numbers last week on offense but they did take advantage of catching the Rams off that tough game with the Saints (LA still nearly covered anyway). The Seahawks last 3 wins have come against 3 teams that have a combined record of 6-18 SU on the season. I know the Packers haven't been world-beaters either but I like the fact they were absolutely "in the game" in their losses to the Rams and Patriots and their loss to Detroit was despite the Packers outgaining the Lions by 257 yards! I know they are NOT (and it is in black and white what matters most) but Green Bay could easily be 6-0 their last 6 games. With Rodgers at the helm they are always a threat and the Packers, ever since the lost to the Seahawks twice in 2014 (reg ssn and P/O) have dominated Seattle since. GB is 3-0 with the 3 victories over Seattle coming by a combined score of 82-36. The Packers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 played in weeks 10 through 13. This is their time of year for their annual playoff push! The last 26 times Seattle has been a favorite they have covered just 10 times! 10* GREEN BAY |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 17-52 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to Ohio becoming nearly a field goal favorite in this one. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move here and, as always, it is certainly not without reason! This Buffalo team is on a mission. Bulls head coach Lance Leipold is in his 4th year at Buffalo and the Bulls have yet to reach the post-season. Keep in mind this is the same Leipold who won FIVE Division III national championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater. That said, it is no surprise to me that Buffalo is having their best season yet under Leipold. That fact is that even if the Bulls lose this game they can still clinch the MAC East even if Ohio wins again next week. Buffalo could do that by virtue of defeating a bad Bowling Green team next week. However, the Bulls don't want to go that route. They want to clinch this right here right now on the Bobcats own field. Keep in mind Buffalo, under Leipold, has won both home match-ups with the Bobcats but they lost the lone meeting at Ohio University by 24 points in 2016. They must have been dominated, right? Actually the Bulls outgained Ohio in that game but were done in by turnovers. Buffalo atones for that road loss with a road win here. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in MAC games this season and 4-0 ATS in road games on the year. They are also the healthier team entering this match-up. Buffalo also has an extra day of rest compared to Ohio heading into this one. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS when off a game against Kent State. Also, though some would argue these teams schedules are roughly equal this season in terms of strength, the numbers tell a different story. For the 2nd straight year the Bobcats schedule included just 2 teams that had a winning record last season. As for the Bulls, their schedule included 5 teams that had a winning record last season. I like having the points here as the Bulls "mission" under Leipold continues! 10* BUFFALO |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7 v. Ball State | 41-42 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 6 ET - Both teams have been struggling but the Broncos are still the superior team and will respond after getting blown out in back to back games. In fact, Western Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they've entered a weekday game off B2B SU losses. The Broncos are also a fantastic 10-2 ATS as road favorites of more than 6 points when facing a team with a losing record! Ball State is an ugly 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Western Michigan. In fact the Broncos have blown out the Cardinals by a combined score of 161-30 in the last 3 meetings! I am well aware that EACH of these teams has issues at the QB position but at least Broncos QB Kaleb Eleby had a solid effort when he first replaced the injured Jon Wassink 2 games back. As for Ball State QB Drew Plitt, he has come in place of the injured Riley Neal but turnovers were a major issue in his first game. Another key factor here is that, with the QB situation for each team, the running game carries extra importance. The Broncos run defense had been solid for many consecutive weeks prior to the last two weeks. Though Western Michigan's run D struggled in its past two games they certainly didn't struggle as much as the Cardinals did. Ball State allowed an average of 307.5 rushing yards per game the past two games! Also, in terms of rushing yardage on offense, the Broncos have averaged 251 yards per game on the ground in their last 4 road contests! The Cards have gained more than 160 on the ground just once in their last seven games. Ball State is on a long-term 6-16 ATS run in conference games and with this line dropping to a 7 as of Tuesday evening, it is "go time" with the Broncos! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-11-18 | Seahawks v. Rams -9 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Surprisingly the early indication on this one, prior to gameday, is that the Seahawks are the popular choice. Of course it makes sense as many remember that Seattle lost by just two points in the prior meeting this season plus many are feeling the Rams will suffer "unbeaten letdown" after their undefeated start to the season ended last week in New Orleans. Ladies and gentlemen, that game against the Saints was a hard-fought battle and Los Angeles has nothing to hang their heads about in regards to that defeat. In other words, look for the Rams to come out blazing hot here looking to atone for that defeat and there is no way the Seahawks can match them score for score. That is why I am very willing to lay a sizable number here as this game has rout written all over it. Some are even mentioning that the Rams have the trip to Mexico City on deck against the Chiefs, one of the AFC's best. The fact is that a non-conference match-up, no matter where it is played, does not take precedence over a divisional match-up! Also, this is especially true this time around because the Seahawks beat the Rams in their last visit to LA! The Seahawks are on a 3-8 ATS run in games played on grass. The Rams are 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in games played on grass this season. Los Angeles has the much stronger passing attack in this match-up and, off a loss, they won't take their foot off the gas in this match-up. The Seahawks are averaging just 23 points per game this season. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in 7 of their 9 games. I like my odds for a double digit cover in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - This is a contrarian play because the betting markets have a short-term memory. In their minds the best bet here is to fade the Titans with the almighty Patriots because, well, New England tends to be a covering machine PLUS the key factor that Tennessee is on a short week. However, that Monday Night win over the Cowboys gives a huge confidence boost for the Titans heading into this match-up with the Patriots. I love the fact that Tennessee also gets this game at home, the Pats Rob Gronkowski may not play, and the Titans have playoff revenge from that ugly loss at Foxboro in January. While it is true that New England has the better offense in this match-up, it is also true that Tennessee has the better defense. I like the physical style that the Titans play and feel that, especially at home with playoff loss revenge, they are going to give the Patriots a lot of trouble in this game. Tom Brady and New England is off that big showdown win versus Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. Also, the Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a dog and this is their only home game in the month of November! In fact, it is Tennessee's only home game between mid-October and early December so, with playoff revenge also factored in, you know this one has been circled in red on the Titans calendars! The Titans are also 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record and again, are being undervalued here in my opinion. Grab the hungry home dog! 8* TENNESSEE |
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11-11-18 | Lions +7 v. Bears | 22-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears thoroughly obliterated the Bills last week, right? After all the final score was Chicago 41, Buffalo 9. Well, ladies and gentlemen, the fact is that the Bears were actually outgained in that game! Chicago only had 180 yards of total offense and yet they had 41 points. It was a turnover-fueled win for the Bears and you can see where I am going with this. It absolutely has led to significant line value this week for a Lions team that is coming off a deceiving final score of their own and will absolutely be ready for this divisional match-up. Detroit did lose at Minnesota last week by a margin of 15 points but they were only outgained by 74 yards. Also, the Lions have been ready for their biggest games. Again, the Vikings loss was a bit of a faulty final score and in their only other divisional game so far this season they beat Green Bay by 8. The other big game for Detroit this season was when they faced head coach Matt Patricia's prior team, the Patriots, and indeed the Lions got the upset win in that game. The point is that this divisional game at Chicago is certainly one that falls into the "important" category for Patricia and Company. That means you can expect a huge effort here and the Bears are simply over-valued. None of the 5 teams that Chicago has beaten this season has a winning record an the combined record of those teams is 14-28 for a .333 winning percentage. To see them as a TD favorite here shows just how skewed public perception can get. By the way, the Lions are on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in November games and the Bears are on a 6-15 ATS (and 4-17 SU!) run in all games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. 8* DETROIT |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +20 | Top | 27-7 | Push | 0 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #122 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - I have a ton of respect for Clemson. The Tigers are a tremendous football team. However, they have enjoyed a string of blowout wins now that has resulted in an inflated line in a situation that truly is likely to be one of their toughest games, from a situational standpoint, of this season. A night game in mid-November at Boston College means temperatures likely starting out in the upper 30s and possibly falling to near freezing as well as some extra wind chill with some pretty stiff winds blowing through Chestnut Hill as well. The point is that this is certainly not typical weather for Clemson to deal with. Now certainly this doesn't stop Clemson dead in their tracks. They're very talented, very fast, and very skilled. The point is that the Tigers will score some points. But for them to go to Boston College and blast the Eagles by a 3 touchdown margin is something I don't see happening. The Eagles have a solid defense that has also shown a lot of "bend but don't break" this season. BC is allowing just 20.8 points per game their last 4 games. Also, the Eagles are solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This includes an offensive line that returned all 5 starters from last season and is loaded with experience. The Eagles have averaged over 500 yards of offense per game at home this season. Granted the Clemson defense is tough so there will be many challenges in this game for the BC offense but they have the veterans and the physicality to get some push against this tough Tigers defense. Boston College is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and that includes 3-0 ATS this season. Long-term the Eagles are 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 17.5 to 21 points. They lost all 4 of those games SU but the point is they covered all but 1 and I love the value here on a cold night at Chestnut Hill with a very physical team capable of winning battles in the trenches. Grab the big points! 10* BOSTON COLLEGE |
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11-10-18 | Oregon +4 v. Utah | 25-32 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) @ Utah Utes @ 5:30 ET - This is a contrarian play because certainly, on the surface, it would appear that Utah is a great play in this spot. After all, the Utes are at home, they're playing with revenge, and they're laying a small number of points. Upon closer inspection though you'll see why I am going contrarian here. Even thought the Utes are off a loss and the Ducks are off a win (another reason that would normally support backing Utah) the value is with the road dog in this match-up. The Utes are going to be without RB Zack Moss for this game and QB Tyler Huntley has been lost for the season. The RB issue is significant but the QB issue is very concerning as the Utes have inexperience at that position behind Huntley. In terms of technical data, Utah is a long-term 33-49 ATS in games where they are favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the Ducks have won 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams and that includes 3 of the last 4 at Utah. With the Utes having redshirt freshman Kelley at QB and the visitor having covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, I like having the points with a Ducks team poised for another road win at Utah. 8* OREGON |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Alabama Crimson Tide @ 3:30 ET - Alabama, of course, is the best team in CFB and they dominated LSU more than anyone really expected. However, that huge win last week over the Tigers does leave the Crimson Tide in, arguably, their biggest flat spot of the season. Last week's game was "The Game" where, if Bama was going to get upset this season, that was going to be it. With that being said, and the fact that it did not happen and the Tide rolled, I see this week's game being much more challenging than many expect. Alabama is breathing a sigh of relief for winning at LSU last week but this Bulldogs defense is not going to be fun to deal with. Mississippi State has played a strength of schedule very comparable to that of Alabama's and the Bulldogs numbers on defense are very bit as good of those of the Tide. Now, for certain, the key edge that Alabama does have here is their passing game. However, the Bulldogs pass defense has allowed just 177 passing yards per game this season in SEC action. I am, of course, NOT saying that Mississippi State is going to shutdown the powerful Alabama offense. But the fact is I do feel strongly that is going to be tough for the Crimson Tide to build a huge margin in this game and will gladly take advantage of the big number posted on this game. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS their last 8 as a double digit dog. Alabama is on a 4-7 ATS run in home games. I'll grab the big points. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | 23-54 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This is the point in the season where a game like this means PLENTY to a team that is 2-7 on the season. If this game was on a Saturday afternoon it would not mean so much but Louisville knows they are THE GAME in early action Friday and the college football world will be tuned in for this one as it involves a ranked Syracuse team. Of course the Cardinals have no shot at bowl eligibility and so a game like this is a rare opportunity to do something positive late in the season. We all saw what happened last night with Wake Forest upsetting the Wolfpack at NC State and that line was nearly identical to this line. Now, of course, the Demon Deacons needed a win to help in their quest for bowl eligibility but, seriously, how many people really expected Wake Forest to win outright as a nearly 20 point dog? The point being that late season games like this (especially on a weeknight) can be dangerous for large favorites. I expect that to be the case again here. While I don't expect Louisville to get a massive upset, I do fully expect them to stay inside this massive number. We're simply getting some extra line value here because everyone saw the Cards get destroyed by Clemson Saturday but the Tigers, of course, are one of the top teams in the nation. Syracuse, for as strong as their offense certainly is, definitely has a sub-par defense. The Orange are allowing nearly as many yards per game as the Cardinals are per game this season! Louisville, in a rare big dog role, is a long-term 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. Syracuse is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record and that includes 0-3 ATS this season! Overall, the Orange have been outgained over their last 5 games and they were outgained in last week's 17 point win over Wake Forest. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony final" and is also helping to give us line value here. Additionally, Syracuse was only 2-2 SU in their 4 prior games and the two wins came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. The point is that the Orange are being severely over-valued here and I am happy to grab the big dog value with a team looking to atone for last week's horrible performance where they were embarrassed by one of the best teams in the country. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #108 Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is looking to fade the Steelers here because they're off the big game against the Ravens. However, when they faced Baltimore earlier this season they then blasted an NFC South foe in their very next games as Pittsburgh crushed the Falcons 41-17. In fact it was that very game that began the current run for the Steelers and they've never looked back. Very quietly this team has made tremendous progress on defense but many are not taking notice. Pittsburgh has allowed just 18 points per game their last 4 games and the yardage allowed is even more impressive. The Steelers have given up only 276 yards per game in their last 4 games, all wins! Those who like historical data will like the fact that Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games versus the Panthers. Overall, the Steelers have excelled against the NFC with a 10-5 ATS in their last 15. Carolina is 2-7 ATS long-term in Thursday games including 0-3 ATS in recent seasons. The Panthers road games this season saw them lose at Atlanta and at Washington. The only road win they had was at Philly and, though they certainly deserve some credit for the comeback, the Eagles certainly "helped" Carolina rally late from a 17-0 deficit. The point is that the markets are giving a little too much credit to the Panthers right now in my opinion and not enough to a Steelers team that is really starting to put it together on defense plus has the home field edge here. The Panthers are off 3 straight wins but they aren't known for rattling off long winning streaks. Prior to last week's win and cover Carolina was 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Steelers have the better passing attack offensively and, in terms of pass defense, the Panthers have allowed an average of 285 passing yards in 6 of their 7 last games (they had one exceptional game against the Redskins in this stretch). The Steelers have allowed just 192 passing yards per game their last 3 games. I respect the Panthers but this is the only home game for Pittsburgh between late October and early December and they're ready to make the most of it. 10* PITTSBURGH |