Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans +1.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - Yes this is a playoff revenge situation but there is plenty of motivation for both sides of course. Tennessee certainly will play with a lot of emotion but the key here has more to do with just playing so well when Tannehill is healthy at QB for them plus the home field edge and another is a weather factor. It is going to be windy in Nashville today including gusty winds. The Bengals strength on offense is the passing game while for the Titans it is the ground game. Tennessee has an edge with weather like this as the running game will be even more important. Not only that, if you look at the defense of these two teams, Titans are one of the best in the league when it comes to run defense. Bengals have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league. So consider these factors plus playoff revenge plus home field edge and you can see why I like Tennessee here. I also like the fact the Titans are on an 8-0 ATS overall run plus have covered each of the last 5 times they have been a home dog. Look for that run to reach 9-0 as, even though Cincy has been playing well, this is a great spot for the home team. 8* TENNESSEE +1.5 |
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11-26-22 | Michigan State +19 v. Penn State | Top | 16-35 | Push | 0 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans +19 @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 4 ET - The Spartans need a win to be a bowl eligible. Do I think Michigan State will win this outright? No. Do I think Michigan State is a dangerous double digit dog that is going to fight like hell in this game? Yes. Absolutely! The fact is this is just too many points. Yes the Spartans lost to Indiana last week but they outgained the Hoosiers 540 to 288 but still found a way to blow a 24-7 lead and then eventually lose in double overtime. It was a disheartening loss but Michigan State upset Penn State last season and absolutely believes they can do it again here despite the huge line. Now I certainly know that the Nittany Lions are on a red hot ATS run and have been piling up big wins. However, just like the Spartans, they lost big to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State is 4-2 last 6 games but the wins against Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers. None of those are powerhouses and certainly Michigan State is no powerhouse either. But they can compete on the road again here just like they did in most recent road game at Illinois when they won outright as a double digit dog! You can bet the Spartans feel they can do the exact same thing here and there is not only added confidence from that result but also from last week's huge yardage edge over the Hoosiers. Michigan State knows they deserved better and will go hard again this week. Spartans only have 3 losses by more than this margin this season and two of them were to the same Michigan and Ohio State teams that both beat Penn State. The Nittany Lions do not have huge motivation here as they will not be playing for the Big Ten title game and simply look ahead to their big bowl match-up. The Lions certainly want to win their home finale and to continue playing well but there is no arguing that the Spartans should come in as the hungrier team in desperation mode to earn a 6th win for a bowl bid. They may fall short in their quest but they should at least get the solid cover here! 10* MICHIGAN STATE +19 |
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11-26-22 | Purdue -10.5 v. Indiana | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers -10.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers were outgained 540 to 288 by Michigan State last week. They got a miracle win in double OT despite that huge yardage deficit. Now they take on a determined Purdue team that got new life with yesterday's shocking upset of Nebraska knocking off Iowa. The Boilermakers are the only team left in the Big Ten West that controls its own destiny. They win this game and they are in the Big Ten Championship Game to face either Michigan or Ohio State - depending on that outcome in the Big Ten East today. So the set up here is a good one for the Boilers to roll. Indiana had lost 7 straight games (and by an average margin of deficit of 20 points) prior to last week's win which, again, was a deceiving final score. So look for the Boilers offense (27 ppg on the road this season) to produce plenty of points here as they face a struggling Indiana defense that has been torched for game after game of late. Also, the Boilermakers D has allowed just 19 ppg last 3 games and can shut down the Hoosiers who were held under 300 yards last week and were held to 17 points or less in 4 of 5 games heading into that one. Rivalry game but the motivation and talent disparity this season mean the favorite wins this by at least a two touchdown margin. 10* PURDUE -10.5 |
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11-25-22 | UCLA -10.5 v. California | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins -10.5 @ California Golden Bears @ 4:30 ET - This sets up beautifully. UCLA is off a tight loss to USC in which they had a 4-1 turnover deficit. California is off a big win over rival Stanford in "The Game" for those long-time rivals. The Bruins enter this game angry and they are so much stronger than Cal. The Golden Bears enter this game content. This is going to turn into a road rout. Normally I don't like to lay big points but this is a rare exception as this game jumped off the page for me given the set-up. UCLA average margin of victory is 26 points the last two meetings with Cal and I fully expect another blowout here. Both teams have some issues on defense for sure but the difference is the prolific offense of the Bruins while the Bears are not strong at all on that side of the ball. Keep in mind the Bears got a 37 yard fumble return for a TD in their comeback win versus the Cardinal last week as they were down by 11 in the 4th quarter! UCLA started the season 6-0 but now has lost 3 of 5 including B2B losses. The Bruins can tie their season record wins record of 10 by winning this game and their bowl game so they still have motivation despite last week's loss to USC. Also, Cal had lost 6 straight games before getting the win over Stanford last week. Bruins one of only six teams in the country averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. 10* UCLA -10.5 |
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11-24-22 | Giants +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants +10 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - That old adage about the wounded dog bites the hardest will hold up here. The Giants have injury issues to the offensive line and wide receiver. They are also coming off a home loss to the Lions in which they gave the game away because of 3 turnovers. New York is fired up to respond this week and facing a division rival should certainly help them. One little hidden angle that I feel could surprise here is that WR Kenny Golladay could be a positive factor. He played multiple seasons for Lions earlier in his career and is used to playing on Thanksgiving. He averaged over 100 yards receiving per game in the T-Day games from 2017 to 2019. After those 3 solid performances he missed the 2020 game and then went to the Giants. New York has a long history in the NFL but hardly ever has played on Thanksgiving. Watch Golladay and Darius Slayton have big games here. The Cowboys won the first meeting and NY wants revenge. Even if they don't get revenge I do expect them to at least get the cover. The Cowboys off the huge win over Vikings where they played a great game and everything went their way. It is hard to have games like that B2B and especially on a short week. That said, it takes nearly a perfect game to cover a double digit spread in the NFL and this is particularly true in a divisional game. Look for Saquon Barkley to bounce back with a strong ground game as he had a massive game the week before the poor game last week. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +10 |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +6.5 v. Ohio | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons +6.5 or +7 @ Ohio Bobcats @ 7 ET - Ohio is priced this way because they are at home and still motivated to win as they look to win the MAC East. However, their top QB Rourke was on the sidelines with a heavy brace and ice for the 2nd half of last week's game. Even if he is able to play here he will not be 100%. As for Bowling Green, they are off a big 42-35 road win at Toledo to keep their MAC title game hopes alive. They need to win here and then hope Kent State beats Buffalo on Saturday. The road win for the Falcons was no fluke as they are now 3-0 SU in MAC road games this season and have scored an average of 35.7 ppg in winning all 3. Led by a solid (and healthier) QB in McDonald, the Falcons are off an amazing late win against the Bulls that kept their season alive. BG will build off that emotional last second win, they were down 35-34 when they won it on what was very nearly the final play of the game. The Bobcats are not very strong defensively and rely heavily on their offense to win games. The Falcons are peaking at the right time and will give a wounded Ohio U all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. I will take the points. 10* Bowling Green +6.5 or +7 |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals +8.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +8.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET (Mexico City) - I know that statistically the Cardinals are not a very good team. However, they still have a dangerous offense and could have Murray back at QB for this one. If not, McCoy will be under center again and it looks like DeAndre Hopkins will be available at WR again and he had 10 receptions for nearly 100 yards with McCoy at QB last week. Marquise Brown is probably not coming back at WR this week but they still have plenty of targets in the passing game with Hopkins and Rondale Moore. Note that Moore also had a big game last week. The Cardinals are off a win versus the Rams and have scored an average of 29 points last 4 games. The 49ers are just 2-2 last 4 games and averaging only 22.5 points during that stretch. San Francisco has the better defense in this match-up but are over-valued here against a Cardinals team with great backdoor potential here. I just don't see the Niners beating the Cards by more than a 1-score margin here. Yesterday only 4 of the 12 games were victories by more than an 8 point margin. This is not unusual as it so hard to win in this league let alone to win by a big margin. In a divisional match-up winning big is even tougher. There were 4 divisional games so far this week and all were decided by a one-score margin. Grab the points here. 10* ARIZONA +8.5 |
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11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers got back TJ Watt and they dominated the Saints last week. However, this is not the Saints. This is a Bengals team that is coming off their bye week, playing with revenge, has won 5 of 7 games and that also gets back a key defensive player this week. DJ Reader is expected back for Cincinnati and he is a key for their run defense. Bengals already are having a solid season even with him missing time and now if the Steelers struggle to run the ball, a lot of pressure is going to be on inexperienced Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. The rookie was sacked 6 times last week and with an angry Cincy team in town, things will not get any easier in this one for Pickett. The Steelers won the first meeting in Cincinnati in overtime but that was a turnover-fueled win as the Bengals had a massive yardage edge in that game. Also, a big reason Cincy is now so hot is because Joe Burrow is again playing like a star and then, as an added bonus, Joe Mixon was running great again in most recent game against Carolina. If the Bengals establish the run again here look out. The fact is that Cincinnati has won 5 of 7 thanks in part to scoring an average of 32.2 points per game in those 5 wins. As for the Steelers, they averaging only 14.6 ppg scored last 8 games since that OT win over Bengals to open the season and they have never scored more than 20 points in regulation time of any game this season. Pittsburgh just will not be able to keep up here and I expect a road rout to result. 10* CINCINNATI -3.5 |
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11-20-22 | Eagles -6.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Colts are now coached by Jeff Saturday instead of Frank Reich. Saturday had no head coaching experience other than the high school level and was an ESPN analyst prior to being hired by the Colts before the game at Las Vegas last week. I know they beat the Raiders but, just barely, and that is a Las Vegas team with a weak defense and that, with that defeat, is now 2-7 on the season. Now Indianapolis faces an team that is angry off its first loss of the season. So they go from facing a Raiders team that is now 2-7 to facing an Eagles team that was 8-0 heading into last week's action. This is going to be a huge test for the Colts and their very green head coach. I like Saturday. So this is nothing personal. He was a great player and seems like a great guy. I just think this is a virtually unheard of jump to a head coaching spot and even though he has delegated some things like play-calling, etc to others this is still a major undertaking. He survived, barely, against the Raiders in his first game on the sidelines but this is a different animal this week. The Eagles do have some injuries issues on both sides of the ball but they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and they will win this one in a road rout. The Colts 5 losses have been by an average margin of 13 points. 6 of last 7 Eagles wins by 8 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5 |
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11-19-22 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -7 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - 5-4 team is favored by a full TD over a 7-3 team in a rivalry game. Looks funny, right? Don't let the line fool you. The Sooners being at home for this is big. QB Dillon Gabriel has been much better at home than on the road this season. Gabriel and the entire offense had a rough game at West Virginia last week and it was a 2nd straight 3-point loss for the Sooners. Keep in mind, all five of their wins this season have been by a double digit margin. Oklahoma is going to take advantage of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders not being 100 percent. I know he came in last week to lead the Cowboys to the win versus Iowa State but he started the game on the bench for a reason. Also, that was at home against the Cyclones and now he is on the road and he and OSU now face their biggest rivals and those rivals are having a challenging season and have revenge on their minds. In other words, this is essentially Oklahoma's Championship Game if you will! They want revenge after the Cowboys snuck out the win in last season's meeting! That ended a streak of 6 straight wins for the Sooners in this series. Look for OU to get back to the winning side of things here. At home this season they have scored an average of 40 points per game! Oklahoma State has scored an average of only 12 points in their last 3 games heading into this one. The Cowboys have lost their last two road games by an average margin of 34.5 points. Another ugly defeat for OSU on the road is in the forecast here! 10* OKLAHOMA -7 |
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11-19-22 | Washington State -3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars -3.5 @ Arizona Wildcats @ 2 ET - The Cougars have rival Washington on deck but the Wildcats have rival Arizona on deck so that is a wash. Washington State has 4 losses this season but 3 of the losses were to ranked teams! The other loss was at Oregon State but the Cougars did outgain the Beavers in that one so the final score was deceiving. The point is that this Washington State team is quite solid and they certainly have a much better defense than Arizona. The Wildcats are off a huge upset at UCLA as a nearly 3 TD underdog so this is a beautiful set-up for a letdown for Arizona. The Cats had lost 4 straight games prior to beating the Bruins. Arizona has not won B2B games all season. All 6 of their losses by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat is 18.3 points! I know they shocked UCLA last week but, prior to that, Arizona's only 2 losses since winning their season opener were against an FCS school and a Colorado team that has played like an FCS school this season! In their 4 defeats prior to beating the Bruins, Arizona allowed 45 points or more in all 4 losses! The Cougars, on the other hand, have allowed only 19.3 points per game last 6 games. We get a favorable line because they are on the road and I won't hesitate to back the much better team here and much better defense at a very fair number here! 10* WASHINGTON STATE -3.5 |
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11-18-22 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +14.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play New Mexico Lobos +14.5 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 9:45 ET - Yes the Lobos offense has been ugly. But this New Mexico defense is solid and there are situational aspects to this play that make it very unlikely the Aztecs will win this by more than a 2-TD margin so I am happy to grab the 14 plus the hook here in a game I expect to be decided by just a 1-score margin. San Diego State is hot and has won 4 of 5 but note this team is just 1-3 on the road this season. Their lone road win was by 16 points at Nevada but was helped by turnovers too. The Aztecs offense has been better since they switched to Mayden at QB but he threw for only 156 yards against the Wolf Pack. Also, he threw 2 interceptions in his other road start. Being successful on the road is not easy and I expect Mayden and the Aztecs to have some struggles here against a respectable Lobos defense that will be fired up here. This is the bowl game for New Mexico if you will. This is their home finale and has ended up being their biggest game of the season in an otherwise disappointing campaign. New Mexico Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long was the head coach at San Diego State for many years. Long will have his Lobos defense fired up for this one and I expect a tight low-scoring game here which should mean an easy cover for us. San Diego State off big game win versus San Jose State last week plus have another tough big game against Air Force on deck. This is a flat spot situation for the Aztecs whereas the fired up Lobos are fully focused here and want to get the shocker in their home finale. 10* NEW MEXICO +14.5 |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles -10.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - I do not normally like to lay big lines but I feel we have a lot of line value here. I like the fact that the Eagles are off a non-covering win last Thursday at Houston against the Texans. This is helping to give us some line value here. I know the Texans are not a very good team but still that game was at Houston and the Eagles were favored by 14. If you look at the lines for next Sunday's games the Eagles are favored by about the same as the 10.5 here versus Washington even though they are at Indianapolis next week! So the point is that, at home and playing with extra rest, this is a value spot in a game the Eagles should win by at least two touchdowns! The Commanders have played two divisional games so far and lose them both by at least 15 points! Also, Washington allowed 30.5 ppg in their first two road games this season. I know they then beat the Bears in Chicago but they were very fortunate in that one as they were outstatted by nearly a 2 to 1 ratio 391 yards to 214 yards! Yes they beat the Colts on the road but that is truly the one "feather in the cap" the Commanders have in terms of a truly successful road effort this season. That said, the Eagles are not the Colts! Philly is undefeated and showing no signs of slowing down and they have not had B2B ATS losses this season! Look for a big home win and cover here as the Commanders just don't have the offense to keep up here and I am sure the Eagles defense is going to "bring it" in a home game in which they are hosting a divisional foe. 10* PHILADELPHIA -10.5 |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers +4 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +4 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Dallas is off their bye week. Prior to that, lets take a look at their last 5 games. 4 of the games were against teams that currently have a losing record. The combined record of those teams is now 12-22 on the season. The other game was against the Eagles and Dallas lost by double digits. The point is that Cowboys are over-rated here. This line is saying that Dallas would be a 7 point favorite on a neutral field. I am not buying that. Green Bay has been turnover prone and has had issues for sure. But note that this Packers team has had only 3 home games this season. They won 2 of the 3. The one they lost was after they came back from the UK. No, that is not an automatic excuse to lose a game but it is not a normal scheduling spot especially when you are not afforded a bye week after going to the UK. The fact is that Green Bay can, and will, respond here. Their loss to Detroit was turnover-driven. I feel that road loss to the Lions will prove to be rock bottom for the Pack. I know it is not easy to call a "bottom" for a team or a market (stocks for example) but the fact is I sense it strongly here. Green Bay is much better than they have shown this season and here is their chance at home to get back on track and make a statement against a Cowboys team they have beaten in 8 of last 9 meetings. The fact we are getting sizable points here to work with as an underdog is an added bonus. Keep in mind the Packers first 5 losses this season were to teams that currently have a combined 29-13 record. The loss to the Lions was the first shocker so to speak and I believe it will serve to be a wake-up call. Green Bay might be destined to battle for the final wild card spot now in the NFC post-season race. But the Packers are still very much alive in that race as the current spot-holder is only at .500 on the season. Pack get back on track here and Cowboys struggles in bigger games - they are known for disappointing in spots like this - continues here. 10* GREEN BAY +4 |
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11-13-22 | Vikings v. Bills -6.5 | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am expecting Josh Allen to play here and, either way, Buffalo to roll at home. The only road game that the Vikings have had this season that is comparable to this is they played at Philly this season. They lost that game by 17 points. Buffalo is 6-2 this season and the Vikes now a surprising 7-1 but the Bills are most definitely the stronger team and we have line value here. Without a doubt this line would be above a TD if not for the Allen injury. As we have reached gameday now it looks more and more likely that he will go and the Bills are angry off a loss. Buffalo has won all 3 home games by a double digit margin this season. The average margin of victory in those games was 26 points! 8* BUFFALO -6.5 |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks v. Bucs -2.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 9:30 AM ET (Munich, Germany) - The Seahawks have played 5 games away from Seattle and allowed 31 ppg! The Bucs have played 4 games away from Tampa and have allowed 13.5 ppg! Fade the masses as the Hawks are the hot ATS team and TB has been cold ATS but the better defense and stronger passing attack on offense will key the victory here. Buccaneers D has been getting healthier again of late too. 8* TAMPA BAY -2.5 |
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11-12-22 | Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears -2.5 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Bears opened up favored at 3.5 and even as high as -5 at some of the earliest posting shops. Baylor is down to a 2.5 as of game day very early morning. Everyone is seeing that a ranked team is getting points here and everyone sees the stats that Bears were fortunate to beat Sooners at Oklahoma last week. Also, everyone sees that Wildcats deserved better at home against Texas last week. However, this is just all leading to exceptional line value here with a Baylor team that plays different when at home and is catching Kansas State off 3 straight emotional games and that is on the road for the first time in 3 weeks! The Wildcats had a chance to knock off undefeated TCU and did not then they won a huge home game against Oklahoma but fell short against Texas. That is 3 straight very big games for the Cats. Note that they have averaged scoring just 19 points per game last two road games and could be emotionally spent here. Also, the Bears have won 4 straight meetings with Kansas State! The Bears have one home loss this season but they outgained Oklahoma State by nearly 100 yards in the surprising defeat. Their other 3 home games have been won by a combined score of 146 to 40. That includes a Big 12 win over an improved Kansas team in which the Bears had 28 first downs compared to just 11 for the Jayhawks! Remember Baylor is coming off a huge season last year and yes they have regressed a little but this is still a very strong, very well-coached team, that loves to play in Waco and will be riled up for a huge win here over the Wildcats. Fade the line move as the Bears improve to 11-1 their last 12 home games! They are strong here and I do not trust this Kansas State team on the road off of 3 straight huge games. This is a tough spot for them and they will struggle to keep up with the strong offense that the Bears have. 10* BAYLOR -2.5 |
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11-12-22 | Maryland v. Penn State -10.5 | Top | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 vs Maryland Terrapins @ 3:30 ET - Maryland just got blasted at Wisconsin and has failed to cover 4 straight games. Not only is this a B2B road game situation for the Terrapins, they will be facing a very motivated Nittany Lions team. Yes, Penn State did win at Maryland last season but they also have not forgotten the Terps last visit to State College. That was in the pandemic-impacted 2020 season and the Nittany Lions lost 35-19 despite having nearly twice as many first downs in the game. PSU was about a 4 TD favorite in that game but was done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit and got embarrassed at home. The Lions will be ready for payback here and, with this line dropping a little bit, I feel we have excellent value here. The average margin of victory in Penn State's last 6 wins is 25.5 points. All 6 were by a double digit margin. The Nittany Lions most recent home game was a loss to Ohio State and, as noted above, they did lose to Maryland last time they met here. Those two factors mean that the Nittany Lions will be very focused here. Insuring that focus is the fact they have Rutgers (1-4 in Big Ten action) on deck. Lay it and look for the hosts to pull away as this game gets into the 2nd half. 10* PENN STATE -10.5 |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - Could be some rainy plus possibly windy and ugly weather in Carolina tonight. The hurricane that moved into Florida is bringing rain up to the Charlotte region and it is expected to be here for the entirety of this game. Look for the ugliness to help the home dog Panthers as they have the better defense in this match-up. Yes they just got throttled at Cincinnati but they are 2-3 at home this season including 2-0 in divisional home games. Carolina won those two home games versus the Bucs and Saints by a combined score of 43 to 17. I look for them to step here at home again. As for the Falcons, they are just 1-3 on the road this season and have allowed 27.5 points per game on the road this year. There is a reason that Atlanta is such a small favorite here over a team that is 2-7 on the season! Don't let the line fool you. The home dog is the play here. 10* CAROLINA +2.5 |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -6.5 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa has QB issues. Brin has been hurting and, even if he plays, he has been throwing too many picks lately. The other option for the Golden Hurricane QB is Braxton but he is a freshman and would be making a road start here against an angry Memphis team that has lost 4 straight games and is ready for a huge bounce back here. The Tigers are much better than their record shows and this is their final AAC home game of the season. In a primetime situation on a Thursday night, I look for Memphis to put on a show in this one! Beautiful weather expected for this one and the Tigers can put up huge points at home in this one. I just don't think, even though Memphis D is not a strength, that Tulsa can keep up here given their QB situation. The Golden Hurricane have just 3 wins this season and they have come against a Northern Illinois team that entered this week with a 2-7 record. Also an FCS school, Jacksonville State, and a Temple team that is 1-4 in conference games this season. Tulsa's last 5 losses all by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat has been 15 points. As for Memphis, yes they have been losing but they faced some tough match-ups and lost some tight games too. The Tigers will take advantage here of taking a step down in level of opposition. Keep in mind, Memphis lost by a single point then lost a game in 4-OT, then lost B2B games against teams that were ranked in Top 25. The Tigers 4 wins this season all by double digit margins and average margin of victory was 17 points. Getting them at under a TD here is a great bargain price. Look for huge home win in a statement game for the Tigers. 10* MEMPHIS -6.5 |
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11-09-22 | Kent State -2.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes -2.5 @ Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - Love the set-up and the motivational/pressure factors in this one plus the line. Why would Kent State be favored by 2.5 on the road when they are 3-6 on the season and Bowling Green is having a winning season including 4-1 in MAC play? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you here. The Golden Flashes have played the much tougher schedule overall as well as within the MAC. The Falcons are over-rated right now. Kent State certainly has the much better offense in this match-up with Schlee back under center. Also, all the pressure is on Bowling Green here. With Ohio University's win last night, BG needs a win here to maintain a tie atop the MAC East standings and plus Buffalo (in action tonight) is in the mix as well. That said, Falcons are feeling pressure while Golden Flashes looking to play the role of spoiler. Kent State has won 4 straight meetings and by a combined score of 186 to 92. All 4 wins have been by at least 7 points so were are testing a 100% streak here and the Golden Flashes have truly dominated this period as they have doubled up the Falcons in total points the past 4 years. Kent State averaging 28 points scored in their 5 MAC games but is off a tight loss last week. Bowling Green is on a 3-game winning streak but has scored an average of only 18 points last 4 MAC games! The Falcons have not had a 4-game winning streak since the 2015 season! They are over-rated right now and playing with pressure they are not use to. The Golden Flashes take advantage. 10* KENT STATE -2.5 |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - Ravens off B2B wins but were on a 3-9 SU run dating back to last season prior to getting these consecutive wins. Also, even though they have extra rest since they had the Thursday night game last week, it is still not easy to go on the road again and win B2B road games. Since Dalton has taken over at QB for the Saints, they have averaged 30 points per game last 5 games. Ravens have averaged 22 points per game last 5 games. The Ravens do have a bye on deck but have covered just once the last seven times they have a bye week on deck. The Saints have the much better passing offense in this match-up plus the Ravens pass defense has been an issue this season as they rank as one of the worst. New Orleans defense builds off last week's strong performance. Also, Saints let a receiver go back to the practice squad which means they are now expecting more from some of the guys that had been banged up. Strong team effort gets the home win as confidence is building with Dalton under center for the Saints. 10* NEW ORLEANS +1.5 |
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11-06-22 | Vikings -3 v. Commanders | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings -3 @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - The Vikings are 6-1 this season. Their only loss was to Philadelphia. Yes, to the now 8-0 Eagles. The point is that Minnesota is winning every game they are supposed to win. However, because the Vikes are on a 2-4 ATS run, the betting markets are not exactly enamored with them. Yes the Commanders have won 3 straight games but they were severely outstatted by the Bears in the victory that started this win streak. They then beat a Packers team that is now on a 4-game losing streak and has been the most disappointing team in the NFL compared to expectations for the season. Then they beat a Colts team that has been another significant under-achiever this season. Truly, other than a solid game in a loss against the Titans (but they caught Tennessee in 2nd straight road game off key divisional win), the Commanders have not impressed this season. They have been blown out by the tough teams they faced (Cowboys and Eagles). Their other 5 games besides the 3 that I just mentioned were against teams with a combined record of 12-26-1 this season. So the Vikings at just -3 in this game basically just have to win the game for us to get the money. This is, like I said, a Minny team that has only one loss this season and it was to the still-undefeated Eagles. I really like Minnesota here because they just had a bye week two weeks ago. Washington still has not had a bye. They are playing for a 9th straight week. They have not played in the same city twice in consecutive weeks this season. It has been home/road/home/road, etc all season long. The Commanders need a bye. They are not getting it yet and I see the better team prevailing here and covering along the way. One final note of importance, the Commanders Super Bowl is next week. That's right, a chance to knock off the undefeated division rival Eagles. Set-ups don't get much better than this one in my opinion. Vikings all day! 10* MINNESOTA -3 |
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11-05-22 | Oklahoma State +1.5 v. Kansas | Top | 16-37 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - I know there are major questions at quarterback for both teams entering this one. I know the markets have moved toward Kansas in this game. I am happy to grab the extra value on a well-coached Oklahoma State team that is off a thoroughly embarrassing 48-0 loss last week. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have beaten the Jayhawks 12 straight times. Also, OSU was 6-1 SU and ATS prior to that loss last week to the Wildcats. The only loss that Okla St had suffered this season, prior to last week, was a defeat in double-OT. In other words, I feel we have seen a severe over-reaction to last week's result and we are getting value with a Cowboys team that is sure to come out angry and focused for this game. I know Jayhawks are better than past teams but their defense has been very bad too. Though Kansas enters this game off a bye, they had lost 3 straight games and by an average margin of 10 points per defeat before that week off. Lets not forget that OSU was a top ten team entering last week's game. They should bounce back strong here no matter the QB situation for either side. I know the emotion that Cowboys are going to bring to this team under coach Gundy! Look for the 12-0 run in favor of the Cowboys in meetings between these foes to make it 13 in a row! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5 |
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11-05-22 | Penn State -13.5 v. Indiana | Top | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Penn State Nittany Lions -13.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - Looks like most of the weather is going to move through before this game gets underway so this one is a go for me after having to wait it out a bit. Penn State should roll to a huge win here just like they did after losing badly at Michigan last month. The Nittany Lions turned around and rolled the Gophers. Yes this time the Lions are on the road and Indiana is off a bye week but this Hoosiers team has lost 5 straight games. This included a loss to Rutgers in their most recent game and they lost WR Cam Camper to a season-ending ACL injury in that one too! Sean Clifford had huge numbers for PSU versus Ohio State last week but also had turnover problems. He has been challenged by his head coach as a result of that and I expect he and this Penn State offense to attack a bad Hoosiers defense all day long in this one! On the other side of the ball, the Indiana offense has struggled in recent games and losing their top WR certainly will not help matters. The Hoosiers already have 3 losses by 14 or more points and this one should fall into this category as well. Be warned that there is a chance that Lions could start a little slow out of the gate, though I am not expecting that, but the Lions will come ROARING back either way as they are just too much for this bad Hoosiers team. 10* PENN STATE -13.5 |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Waiting has paid off as we are starting to see +3.5 show up on this game for Cleveland and I love the home dog in this spot. Cincinnati, and deservedly so, is receiving high praise for their defense. But note that the Browns are off a great defensive effort at Baltimore and held the Ravens to just 254 yards but lost the game due to losing the turnover battle. Yes Cleveland is an ugly 2-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses have been by 3 or less points. Again, another reason I love the fact we can now get 3 plus the hook in this one with the Browns. As for the Bengals, they are 4-3 on the season but their wins are against teams that are a combined 17-15 on the season. They also have lost to a Pittsburgh team that is 2-6 this season. I am not saying that Cincinnati is not the better team in comparison with the Browns. I am just saying that this is a tough spot for them here in my opinion as Cleveland has won 7 of the last 8 meetings and gives them a lot of trouble. Also, the Browns back home off a tight road loss while Bengals on the road after a blowout road win. These set ups often work out well for the hosts and particularly when they are a home dog! The Browns have been just as solid as Bengals in terms of pass defense and they also are the much better rushing team on offense. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5 |
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10-30-22 | Titans v. Texans | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans Pick or +1 @ Houston Texans @ 4:05 ET - The Titans Ryan Tannehill is out for this game. Malik Willis gets the start. I know he is an NFL rookie. I know he did not look good in preseason. But he started his college career at an SEC school, Auburn, and then went to Liberty so he could get playing time. He is a true dual-threat QB and in his two seasons at Liberty he threw for 47 touchdowns and ran for 27 touchdowns! He is not facing a great defense here. Also, unlike preseason, he is working with all the starting talent around him. This Titans team is first in the AFC South and this Texans teams is dead last in the division and one of the worst teams teams in the league. I think this is a classic case of value being created by an injury situation. Tennessee is the much better team and now is not even favored here and they have a strong ground game and will do damage on the ground here. The only team in the AFC with fewer losses than the Titans is the Bills. The Texans are tied with the Lions as the only teams in the NFL that have only 1 win on the season. There is simply a much bigger disparity between these teams than what this line is reflecting and we can take advantage of the added value. Houston's only win this season was against (now 2-5) Jacksonville. Tennessee has a game at Kansas City on deck so they know they need this game against the Texans. The Titans want to maintain their hold on the top spot of the division and next week's game at KC will be tough. Look for them to be fully focused here and everyone dialed in on offense to help Willis along and the result will be a surprisingly solid win here! 10* TENNESSEE Pick or +1 |
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10-30-22 | Bears +10 v. Cowboys | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Chicago Bears +10 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys did beat Detroit 24-6 last week but they were down at the half and, with THREE minutes to go in the ENTIRE GAME, Dallas was up only 10-6. They scored 2 late touchdowns to make for a deceiving final score in their win over the Lions. As for the Bears beating the Patriots, Chicago had 24 first downs and the Pats had just 12. That was a dominating win and was at New England. I am not here to tell you that Chicago wins this game outright. I just feel that the Bears getting double digits is far too much. Dak Prescott is still coming back from a thumb injury. The Bears confidence is growing and remember they should have beaten Washington 2 weeks ago as they had a huge yardage edge in that game. We are getting value with a solid defensive team that also can get yardage on the ground because Fields is a very dangerous QB with his legs too. This can give a solid Cowboys D some issues and this game will be decided by just 1 score in my opinion. 8* CHICAGO +10 |
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10-30-22 | Broncos +2 v. Jaguars | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Denver Broncos +2.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET at Wembley Stadium in London, UK - Getting 2.5 points with the Broncos is a great value here. They have the much better defense in this match-up. I know their offense has been bad but Denver's Russell Wilson took a week off to rest up and the Broncos have a bye on deck so he can go all out here. I have a feeling that Wilson is going to end up being the star of this game. Keep in mind, the Jaguars are on a 3-14 ATS run. I know Denver has been bad too but I trust their defense in this match-up and feel the Broncos offense is going to be better in this one because of the Wilson situation. They will be rejuvenated here and two of Bronco's recent losses in OT and they are catching a Jacksonville team that has lost 4 straight games by an average of 7 points apiece. 8* DENVER +2.5 |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State +1.5 v. Kansas State | 0-48 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET - The Cowboys have been a covering machine this season and they enter this game red hot ATS. Not only that, Kansas State is off a loss at TCU plus won their prior game by just a single point and already lost a home game versus Tulane this season too. Also, the Wildcats are hosting an OSU team that has performed well as a Big 12 road dog under Gundy and I love the fact the line has flipped here. The Cowboys have gone from being the favorite to the dog in this one. Kansas State did beat Oklahoma by a TD this season but that win is looking less impressive now that the Sooners have struggled so much this season. The point is that I am not a believer in the Cats being a very solid 5-2 team. The Cowboys, in my opinion, are a very strong 6-1 team that suffered it's only loss this season in double OT! OSU is off big win versus Texas but Cowboys do NOT have a penchant for letdowns under Gundy. His team will be ready here and having a veteran QB like Spencer Sanders is a HUGE plus as well! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5 |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State +15.5 | Top | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +15.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - Remember when Penn State was so awful against Michigan and got blasted by the Wolverines? Yes? Well, so does everyone else and that is impacting this line. You know who remembers it the most? These Nittany Lions! They are at home and with a chance to make up for that embarrassment. They know they are better than that. They are not Ohio State and they are HIGHLY unlikely to beat the Buckeyes here. However, in my opinion, they also are HIGHLY unlikely to lose this game by more than 2 TDs. In fact, I expect this game to be decided by a single score as PSU has something to prove here and is capable of playing tough hard-nosed football against a very strong OSU team here. 10* PENN STATE +15.5 |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Friday CFB 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -3 vs East Carolina Pirates @ 8 ET - This is as much a play against East Carolina as it is a play on BYU and, trust me, the Pirates are solid and respectable team. But I think the difference in the current level of these two programs is not being properly estimated by the betting markets here. Not only that, traveling West for a weekday game is not easy and is not something the Pirates are really use to either. They have been particularly spoiled by their early season schedule. That, to me, is one of the biggest keys here. I personally do not feel the AAC is a very strong conference. Yes, Cincinnati and UCF have had their moments in recent seasons but this is still not a Power 5 Conference like the SEC or Big 12 or Big Ten or ACC or Pac-12. So far this season East Carolina's toughest game had been versus NC State and though they fell just short that tight loss is becoming less impressive with each successive ATS loss that the Wolfpack continue to suffer. Now credit must be given for the Pirates beating UCF last week but that was a turnover-fueled win as the yardage and first downs were about equal. Plus East Carolina was at home for that one and the 21-point margin of victory is serving to give us line value here. BYU is an independent but has played a ton of tough match-ups. Tough game have included facing Baylor and Oregon and Notre Dame and Arkansas. Look for the battle-tested Cougars to bounce back and respond after an embarrassing loss at Liberty last week as they take advantage of home field here and stop their 3-game losing streak! 10* BYU -3 |
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10-27-22 | Ravens +2 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +2 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The Bucs have lost 4 of 5 games. Most concerning too is that their last 3 games have been against teams with a combined record of 7-14 this season. None of those teams have a winning record. Tampa Bay beat just one of them, Atlanta, but did not cover and TB enters this game on an 0-5 ATS run. In fact, 5 of Tampa's 6 games (since beating Dallas in season opener) have seen them face teams that currently have a losing record. The record of those 5 teams is now a combined 12-23. Consider that and now consider that the Buccaneers have lost 4 of 5 games! This team is just not the team it use to be. Keep in mind, former head coach Bruce Arians is now a senior football consultant for the Bucs. That is is not the same as being the guy patrolling the sidelines and calling the shots. That guy is Todd Bowles who should have stuck to just being a defensive coordinator (which he absolutely has excelled at). As an NFL head coach though, Bowles now has a combined record of 17-38 dating back to the 2016 season. John Harbaugh has a 47-25 record as head coach of the Ravens dating back to the 2018 season. Baltimore's defense was struggling earlier this season but they have started to turn the corner ever since a solid effort in the tight loss to the Bills. The Ravens offense is one of the better ones in the league in terms of points scored and is led by dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. With the Bucs offense a shell of its former self, I have no hesitation in grabbing the points for a strong play with the road dog in this one Thursday. 10* BALTIMORE +2 |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
Monday NFL 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +9 @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - First off I like the fact the Bears have extra rest since they last played Thursday. Secondly I definitely like the fact that Chicago lost that game despite having a huge yardage edge of nearly a 2 to 1 ratio over the Commanders. Thirdly, and the biggest key here, is that even though New England is 3-3 this season one should take a look at their schedule! The Patriots are 3-3 but the 3 wins have come against team that are 5-15 on the season. Now, of course, one could argue that the Bears are also a bad team and I certainly understand that sentiment. However, I have a strong feeling that the Pats are entering this game overconfident off B2B wins and facing a 2-4 Bears team. New England will end up surprised that this Chicago defense is quite solid. The Bears have lost 3 straight games but all were by 8 or less points. Chicago has a high compete level and they have a solid rushing offense and a strong pass defense. Oftentimes teams like this make the best big road dogs! By the way, Chicago has lost the money ATS just once in last 8 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots can improve to 4-3 with a win here and that would put them just behind the 5-2 Jets and 5-1 Bills in the AFC East but those 5-2 Jets are on deck for the Pats too. Could New England get caught looking ahead here? I do feel that New England will circle the wagons in time to win this game Monday but I don't see them covering this inflated spread. Bears will be in this game all the way and have a legitimate shot at the outright upset. 10* CHICAGO +9 |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins -7 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Yes the Steelers just beat the Bucs but they were outgained in that game. The Dolphins lost to the Vikings but actually outgained Minnesota by over 200 yards in that game and had twice as many first downs. Miami was done in by turnovers in that one. The Dolphins get back Tagovailoa for this one at QB and still have Bridgewater and Thompson available to back him up. The Steelers welcome back Pickett at QB this week but he has struggled so far this season with a poor TD-INT ratio. Also, his back-up is Trubisky and he is not known for striking fear into opposing defenses. The Steelers are still in rebuild mode here and flukes like the upset win over TB will happen from time to time but Pittsburgh generally a different team on the road. Couple that with the fact that the Dolphins are starting a stretch in which their 5 opponents - including Steelers - have a combined record of 8-19-1, you know Miami realizes they can still salvage their season. They started 3-0 then went 0-3 and now they get back on track in a big way to improve to 4-3. Look for them to be revitalized with the return of their starting QB and playing at home in SNF. Miami has lost the money just 3 times the last 15 times they have been a home favorite. Dolphins roll by 7 or more in this one! 10* MIAMI -7 |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Colts seek revenge for the first meeting and actually outgained the Titans by over 120 yards in that one and held Tennessee to just 243 yards in the upset loss due to turnovers. With Matt Ryan off a huge game in which he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, I love this spot with the Colts! Ryan had a bad game recently in the OT win at Denver two weeks ago but Indy is actually 3-1 the last 4 games and in his 3 games besides the Broncos game he has averaged 322 yards passing and thrown for 7 TDs against just 1 INT. I think Indy is quietly starting to turn their season around and, statistically they are much better than the Titans on both sides of the ball but Tennessee has been more fortunate because the Colts had some turnover issues this season. So we get some built-in line value here and I will not pass it up. Indy has the much better passing attack and much better pass defense and that will key the road win here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota v. Penn State -4.5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -4.5 vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - Penn State is certainly no powerhouse this season but the same holds true for Minnesota and yet if you factor in the home field edge for this one it is almost as if the line would be a pick'em on a neutral field and I disagree with that assessment and feel we have excellent line value here! Minnesota is 4-2 this season but the wins were against New Mexico State, Western Illinois, Colorado and Michigan State. Well NM St and Colorado are very bad football teams. Michigan St is having a down season and W. Ill is an FCS school. The Golden Gophers opened the season 4-0 but against those teams. They have since been absolutely been dominated by an Illinois team that is playing very well but is certainly no Michigan (that is who PSU just lost to) and and the Golden Gophers also lost at home by double digits to a Boilermakers team that Penn State defeated earlier this season at Purdue! Also, even though Auburn is down this season the Tigers are an SEC program and PSU crushed them by 29 points. Their schedule has been tougher than that of Minny. I know they have Ohio State on deck but they won't look past this game and they are angry after being completely manhandled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against the Wolverines. So this game means more to them than you might think and, after first loss of the season, the Nittany Lions bounce back and also send over-rated Minny to 3rd straight loss! 10* PENN STATE -4.5 |
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10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +6 | Top | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys +6 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Stillwater is not an easy place to play. I know the Cowboys are going to be fired up after they let their game slip away at TCU last week. Yes that was a 2OT loss so you might think that OSU will have trouble bouncing back this week or could be spent physically and emotionally. However, the key is that this game is at home. If it was in Austin, I probably would not trust Oklahoma State here but being at home and angry off the loss to the Horned Frogs and getting 6 points here...it just all adds up to a lot of value. UT is absolutely a much better team under the new coaching regime. However, Texas has only played one true road game (the OU game was neutral site of course) and they lost outright at Texas Tech as a 7 point dog and they had to rally just to send that game to OT. By the way, that same Red Raiders team lost to this same Cowboys team by double digits! Love the home dog value here. When coach Gundy is off a loss he has only lost the money ATS 5 times the last 20 games. Also, the Cowboys have covered 9 of last 11 ATS as an underdog in conference action. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +6 |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys are expected to again be without QB Dak Prescott. Even though QB Cooper Rush has been a solid game manager for Dallas so far this season, the Cowboys still have an offense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. They are fortunate to be 4-1 this season. The Eagles are NOT fortunate to be 5-0 this season. They have dominated for long stretches in games and are fully deserving of their undefeated record. They have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league and a solid defense that ranks well against both the run and the pass. The Cowboys are lacking a bit in terms of run defense and the Eagles had the #1 rushing attack last season and are again near the top of the league so far this season. Philly has hopes of getting to the Super Bowl this season but, until then, this is their Super Bowl. Indeed the Eagles, and the entire city of Philadelphia hates the Cowboys more than any other team in the NFL. They want revenge here for the fact they have lost 3 straight to Dallas by an average margin of 22 points per game. Keep in mind, last year's ugly loss to the Cowboys in Philly was after the Eagles clinched playoffs so they weren't playing for anything. This time they are playing for plenty and Philadelphia is 6-0 / 100% ATS the last 6 times they have been a home favorite. Dallas beat the Rams last week but were very fortunate as they were outgained by 100 yards. Now they go from the west coast to the east coast for this one and the Philly fans will be rabid for this one. What a time in Philly for the fans. Phillies going to NLCS, Flyers have started season 2-0 under new head coach, Sixers again considered an NBA title contender coming into season, and the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. I only mention that because the passion and energy of the crowd tonight will perhaps be about the highest level you will have ever seen in a regular season NFL game in Philadelphia. I am 100% serious about that and you have the hated Cowboys in town and the Eagles currently firing on all cylinders and the likely QB match-up is early season MVP candidate Jalen Hurts over Cowboys QB Cooper Rush. I am not disrespecting Rush but just saying he was undrafted out of Central Michigan. The Eagles Hurts was a star at Alabama and Oklahoma - traditionally two of the best programs in College Football. Again, I respect what Rush has done with the Cowboys as a game manager but this will be his toughest test yet and if Prescott does play I would expect plenty of rust. Dak was very limited in practice and I really think they are going to wait on him and let the thumb heal more. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6 or -6.5 |
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10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins +3 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins +3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - I am a contrarian and it is something that has served me well in the NFL through the years. In this case, the Vikings have been rolling and this line has flipped from Miami being a small favorite to Minnesota being now favored by a field goal on game day. Now of course part of the reason for the move is that Tagovailoa is still out for this game and Bridgewater is expected to only be the back-up for this game. That means Skylar Thompson gets the start. What everyone is looking at with him is that he struggled last week on the road but I want to mention a couple of key factors with him. This guy had a phenomenal preseason and, even though that is only preseason, it still shows he can move a team down the field. Now this week he got full reps with the first string all week long and will be fully prepared for this start here and this is a home start. Keep in mind, he played his college career at Kansas State which means he faced some tough teams during his college career. This is not some guy coming out of a small college where you have concerns about the level of competition. I really like Thompson to surprise in this game and feel we have phenomenal value here with the home dog. If this game was at Minnesota, no I would not play it. But this is an entirely different situation. On that note, Dolphins on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog. Overall, Miami on a 10-4 ATS run entering this one and Vikings on a 2-6 ATS run entering this one. Dolphins also have covered 8 of last 12 versus NFC foes. 8* MIAMI +3 |
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10-15-22 | NC State +3 v. Syracuse | 9-24 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* NC State Wolfpack +3 @ Syracuse Orange @ 3:30 ET - Like the fact that the Wolfpack already have a loss and that it came against a powerful Clemson team. I also like the fact they have a bye week on deck. Conversely, the Orange are undefeated but most of their schedule has been weak. I know Syracuse is off a bye week but they have a huge game at that same Clemson team on deck! The Orange two toughest games recently have been versus Purdue and Virginia. They hung on for the win in each but each were by 3 or less points. I like the fact we are getting the full field goal here and I love the scheduling situation. Yes the Orange will be focused her but they can't help but to be thinking "if we can just win this then we face Clemson as an undefeated team". I think Syracuse gets caught over-thinking it whereas this very strong NC State team already has that first blemish as noted above. So you have a situation where the Wolfpack are playing with less pressure and after their bye week they have a lousy Virginia Tech team on deck. So this means that NC State is fully focused here and I look for the Orange to finally get "peeled" for the first time this season! 8* NC State +3 |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State +4 v. TCU | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +4 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on TCU in this revenge spot here. Revenge is over-played for sure in sports! It is a factor for sure but it is often over-valued. The result is you often can get value on the other side by playing against the revenging team. This is one of those cases. You don't think Oklahoma State is motivated too? Remember both these teams come in undefeated. The Cowboys want to stay that way just as bad as the Horned Frogs do. Also, the last 6 times that OSU has been in a game where both they and their opponent were ranked the Cowboys have won 5 of the 6 games and, keep in mind, we're getting 4 points to work with here too! I love the line value in this one because both defenses, deservedly, are much maligned BUT the Cowboys lead the Big 12 with 3.2 sacks per game. Also, Oklahoma State is leading the NATION (FBS) in tackles for a loss with 10.2 per game. So look for both teams to certainly enjoy some success on offense in this one but look for OSU to be the team making the key defensive plays that will be the difference in this game. Last, but certainly not least, note that Spencer Sanders rates the QB edge over Max Duggan in this game. I know both have strong career numbers and Duggan is also having a strong season again but how did he lose the starting job to Chandler Morris coming into this season. The coach saw something there, right? The only reason Duggan is back in there is Morris got hurt. Now I am most definitely NOT saying Duggan is not a good QB, I am just saying that there is a reason all that transpired and now, in the biggest of games, who would you rather be counting on? Sanders or Duggan? To me we have big edges in this game. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +4 |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
CFB Thursday 8* Central Florida Knights -23 vs Temple Owls @ 7 ET - This line was as high as 28 but is now down to 23 and I love fading line moves. The fact is the Owls just can not score points. They are 2-3 this season but the 2 wins were against a bad FCS team (Lafayette - PA) and an annually horrible FBS team (Massachusetts). You can practically throw the stats from those 2 games out the window. In their other 3 games, all losses, Temple has scored an average of just 6 points per game! I know it looks like they held Memphis in check in their 24-3 loss before a bye week last week. However, the Tigers had a big game on deck versus the Cougars and they were sleepwalking through the first half before they woke up and dominated the 2nd half. With UCF at home and off a big 2nd half versus SMU last week, I don't think we'll see sleepwalking here. Look for the Knights to be ready from the opening kick and they should win this one in a blowout. Of course Central Florida is going to win this game SU and that is worth noting as the Knights are scoring an average of 41 points per game in their 4 victories. So if Temple hits their average here of 6 points or even if fortunate enough to reach their highest point total (14) they have had in any loss this season, that still puts UCF with an ATS win even if the Knights just hit their scoring average. But truly this looks like a game that the Knights should even score closer to 50 than 40. Blowout time! 8* Central Florida -23 |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
CFB Wednesday 8* Marshall Thundering Herd -10 vs UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns @ 7:30 ET - Both teams have been solid defensively but have struggled offensively. However, the more I dug into this match-up it is a game in which the home team has a much better shot at getting the offense going. The Thundering Herd are at home and have the better weapons on offense. I also like the revenge aspect here as Marshall lost to Louisiana in their bowl match-up last year in December. Both teams did not play on Saturday of course because of this being a Wednesday game. Look for the Thundering Herd to benefit more from the time off as they have the better coaching and will be very prepared for this home game after some recent disappointment. This is a Marshall team that was able to rise up and beat Notre Dame earlier this season. The Thundering Herd were a 3 TD underdog in that one so it shows what this team is capable of. The Ragin Cajuns were favored by double digits in each of their two road games this season and yet lost both outright against weaker competition. I think this is the right spot for the Thundering Herd to have one of their best games of the season and for the Louisiana road struggles to again be a major issue. 8* MARSHALL -10 |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - This is a contrarian play so this write-up will be rather short. Everyone will want the Cowboys here as they have 3 straight and plus they catch the Rams on a short week off Monday Night Football at San Francisco. Also, everyone has watched LA struggle versus Buffalo and the 49ers in primetime games. So again, the favoritism has been toward Dallas here which is why the line has moved their way. Let us not forget however, the Rams did not even leave the state of California for the Monday Night Game. They also are angry off that loss. Dallas is off B2B divisional wins and has huge divisional game against currently undefeated Eagles in Philly on deck. The Cowboys also traveling west for this one which often does not go well for them. I know Stafford is having a rough start to the season and the offensive line struggled badly against the Niners last week. But I am here to tell you that Los Angeles is going to dig deep for this game and Prescott is still not coming back for this game. It is still Cooper Rush at QB. No offense to Rush but I don't think the Bengals are very good this season and the Commanders certainly are not and the Giants are a team that has not won more than 6 games in about 6 years. So he is going to get tested by an angry Rams defense in this one. I look for LA to really come together strong for this one and get a convincing win. The numbers and trends and stats will not support that. But the NFL is about much more than what people perceive from those things. Rams step up big here and still are well-coached and they do not want to drop below .500 on the season. Look for them to pull away as this game goes on. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -5 |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints -4.5 | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - This Seahawks is one of the worst teams in the league. They have a horrid defense. I know this team is 2-2 this season but they never should have beaten the Broncos in week 1 as anyone who watched the game knows. It was a fluke win. Then they lost their next two games by a combined score 54 to 30. Then last week they did get the win but allowed 45 points. This Saints team can play defense. Also, Dalton looked solid at QB last week in the loss at London versus Vikings. Dalton played just fine and now New Orleans gets RB Kamara back this week. Also they have a rookie WR who has been excelling and showed good chemistry with Dalton last week and that helps alleviate the concern of WR Michael Thomas again being out this week. Better defense, at home and off a loss and note Seahawks allowing an average of 36 points per game in road games this season and playing the 2nd game of a B2B away from Seattle. Saints have had only one home game and it was against a tough Bucs team. They are going to take advantage of their first home game against a weak foe and then they win this convincingly. 8* NEW ORLEANS -4.5 |
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10-09-22 | Giants v. Packers -8 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers -8 vs New York Giants @ 9:30 AM ET (London) - The Packers outgained the Patriots by 162 yards last week. Yes was OT win but Green Bay was better than final score indicated. The Pack, based on yardage stats, the better team on both sides of the ball in comparison with the Giants. I know New York has a good record so far this season but I feel a regression is coming. Lets not forget the Giants have not won more than 6 games in a season in many years. New York has been fortunate to win some tight games this season but this one unlikely to be tight. Green Bay just too much for New York. The Giants toughest match-up this season, based on current records, was Dallas and they lost to Cowboys despite being at home and despite the Boys being without Prescott at QB. The Packers, in my opinion, have faced the tougher schedule including Vikings and Buccaneers. Green Bay is a team many consider to be a threat for the Super Bowl this season. The Giants are not expected to be a playoff team and the Packers also have the edge in pass protection here. Look for the favorite to pull away as this game goes on and win this by double digits. 8* GREEN BAY -8 |
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10-08-22 | Iowa +4 v. Illinois | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +4 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET - Love this spot for an underdog upset but happy to grab the points here too. Illinois just won their Game of the Year. The reason I say that is their head coach, Brett Bielema used to coach the Badgers. The Illini just went to Madison last week and beat Wisconsin convincingly on their home turf. Now watch this over-rated Illini bunch come out flat as a pancake for this game. First off, give credit for the win over Wiscy but Badgers nowhere near the team they use to be. Then look at who else this Illinois team has played this season. Wyoming is bad this season, Virginia is bad this season, the Indiana team that the Illini lost to just lost B2B games to Cincy and Nebraska by a combined score of 80 to 45. The other win Illinois has was over an FCS school. Now, I do know that Iowa is off a tough physical battle with Michigan last week. But I also know the Hawkeyes have a bye week on deck and they will go all out here coming off a loss. There is no quit in this physical Iowa team and they will be inspired to go hard for the win in conference action. They did throw for over 200 yards against the Wolverines in a game in which the stats were nearly equal. That is impressive as Michigan is one of the top teams in the country. Look for the Hawkeyes to be able to run and pass better than you would expect against this over-rated Illini defense that could come out flat here too. Iowa hungry off a loss and lets not forget the allowed an average of only 6 points per game first 4 games! That did include a 3 point loss to a solid Iowa State team. The Hawkeyes have only lost once in last 14 meetings with Illini and that includes 8-0 SU last 8. I fully expect that streak to reach 9 here but am happy to take the 4 points as added insurance too. 10* IOWA +4 |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -3.5 vs North Carolina @ 4 ET - Remember when everyone was so down on Notre Dame earlier this season? You might be asking what that has to do with this play but, quite a lot actually, and I will explain. The Fighting Irish were on an 0-2 ATS run and 1-2 SU run and off a non-covering win versus Cal after an embarrassing loss to Marshall. Their next game was AT this North Carolina team. Even at Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels got embarrassed. The game was 38-20 entering the 4th quarter and, for the game the Irish outgained UNC 576 to 367. Keep in mind the game was 38-14 before UNC gained 230 yards and scored 18 points over the final 20 minutes of the game after it was already out of hand. The point is that the Tar Heels had one test this season and they failed miserably. Now they are on the road and facing a similar foe. This Hurricanes team is angry and off a bye week. Miami should have beat Texas A & M a few weeks ago - we had the Canes there and they dominated everything but the scoreboard. Then, after that demoralizing loss, Miami came out flat and lost to Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago as a big favorite. Then the bye week last week and now you have an angry Hurricanes team that, by the way, is playing their first ACC game of the season. They are the only team in ACC without a conference game yet. They can still, in theory, go undefeated in ACC. Of course I am not saying they will but the point is that this is the ideal perfect fresh start situation for Miami. Similar to Notre Dame, this Hurricanes defense will give the Tar Heels offense some trouble. As for the UNC defense, it is atrocious and will not be able to stop Miami. The Heels just dominated Virginia Tech but the Hokies are a very bad football team this season. Prior to that, UNC had allowed 40 points per game this season! The Hurricanes open up their ACC season with a big win here as the situation, the home field, and the much better defense all add up to a huge win. 10* MIAMI -3.5 |
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10-07-22 | Nebraska -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - Rutgers has lost 20 straight Big Ten home games and Nebraska is favored by only 3 points. There is your write-up. All kidding aside the fact is we certainly have history on our side here and I also like the fact that the Scarlet Knights have a big mess at the QB spot. I know they had some good defensive numbers before facing Ohio State last week and most certainly the Cornhuskers are nowhere close to the level of the Buckeyes. However, Rutgers played bad teams in the form of Boston College, Wagner, Temple and also an Iowa team known for its defense not its offense. The point is that the Scarlet Knights defense will be challenged a bit by a pretty solid Nebraska offense here. The other key is that the Huskers defense woke up after the firing of their defensive coordinator and they played very strong against Indiana last week. I know this is a road game on the east coast and it is hard to trust the Cornhuskers on the road but I feel strongly that last week's game against the Hoosiers is a sign of things to come. Also, how can anyone trust a Rutgers team that has lost 20 straight home games in conference action and that has a messed up quarterback situation with injuries, etc? I sure can not! Go Big Red! 10* NEBRASKA -3 |
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10-03-22 | Rams +2 v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +1.5 or +2 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Motivation is so important when professional players are paid many millions to play the sport they love. Guys still sometimes don't have it. They come to the game not fully prepared mentally and they pay for it. That is what happened when the defending Super Bowl Champs opened the season against the Bills and got thoroughly embarrassed on national TV with the whole world watching. Los Angeles got caught still celebrating the Super Bowl victory and thinking a little too much of themselves entering the new season. What does that have to do with this game you might ask? A helluva lot! This is the Rams first chance since then to redeem themselves on the big stage. No one likes to be embarrassed. This is Monday Night Football. It is a division rival. The defending champs will bring their "A game". Now I am not here to tell you this Rams team is as good as last year because they are not. However, they are still better than the 49ers. Yes San Francisco has a great defense but the Rams have a solid defense too, to say the least. Also, LA is particularly strong against the run and the Niners are not a good passing attack (as per usual). So this is where the final key comes in. Rams QB Stafford and the overall LA passing attack ranks the edge over the Niners in that department for sure AND it was Stafford that got embarrassed too with a rough game against Buffalo on opening night. Redemption time here and I know some will point to the revenge angle here for Niners from last year's playoff loss. But these teams just plain don't like each other AND the Rams had actually lost 6 IN A ROW to the Niners before that playoff win. So there is still some payback to be served here and SF has scored less points this season than LA has the past two weeks. Stafford stats the past two weeks are 45 of 61 for 521 yards and 3 td vs 2 int. Garoppolo only 31 of 50 for just 365 yards with 2 td vs 1 int. Also Jimmy G got sacked 4 times last week. Stafford just once each of past two weeks. The Rams ability to move the ball better through the air is the difference in this game. The motivation because of getting drilled on opening night of season on national TV is the other as they show the world the Rams are still a force to be reckoned with by delivering a Monday night bounce back and improve to 3-1 while trying to bury the rival Niners and knock them down to 1-3 on the young season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +1.5 or +2 |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +3 v. Raiders | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +2.5 or +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - The betting markets still don't believe in Denver. The Broncos should be 3-0 this season already. They absolutely dominated the Seahawks in Week 1 but were handed a tough loss despite a massive yardage edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, continue to get the respect of the markets despite being 0-3 on the season. They were chasing for the entirety of the game at Tennessee last week as they got down to the Titans and that had to try to battle back but it was too little too late. It takes awhile for a new coach, Josh McDaniels, to get his team all on the same page and Las Vegas is now 0-3 both SU and ATS this season. I know the Broncos have not scored well this season but this offense can still produce and has Russell Wilson at the controls. Their offense is also more well-balanced than a Raiders offense that relies so heavily on the pass. Also, the Broncos are, without question, the much tougher defense. That sets this one up well for an upset victory but I am happy to grab the 2.5 or 3 points being offered in this one as of very early Sunday morning. Another key for me here is that the Broncos have lost 4 straight in this series. They want this game and they have the QB now, in Wilson, to get the job done and lead them to victory on the road here. Raiders have failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they have been a home favorite. 10* DENVER +2.5 or +3 |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Coming into this season the Jaguars were expected to notch about 6 wins and the Eagles about 10 wins. Now with the Jags off to a surprising start the betting markets have over-reacted and you have this game priced in a way that indicates Eagles would only be favored by a FG over Jacksonville on a neutral field. I am not buying it! This Eagles team is for real and was forecast to reach double digits in wins for a reason. Jalen Hurts put in a lot of off-season work and it has paid major dividends for him and for these Eagles. Now they are at home and laying less than 7 against a Jags team that is a perennial loser. I am not saying the Jaguars with Lawrence at QB and Pederson at head coach deserve respect. They absolutely do merit respect. But they are still not the same talent level right now as this Eagles team. Philly has a game out West at Arizona after this. They know they must make the most of this home game. They got 9 QB sacks last week. The Jags have been great in pass protection so far but this is a different animal they are facing this week! Also, remember all the turnovers the Eagles generated in their only other home game this season versus the Vikings! Jacksonville has covered just 3 of last 11 overall and 3 of last 11 when in road dog role too. Also, Jaguars incredible 4-30 ATS against NFC teams long-term. The Eagles have covered 5 in a row as a home favorite and I love the line value here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -6.5 |
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10-02-22 | Vikings v. Saints +3.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9:30 AM ET in London - I am well aware of the QB situation for the Saints but with Winston having some turnover issues the fact that Dalton and Hill will be the QB options for New Orleans here may not be such a bad thing. Also, the Saints outgained the Panthers substantially last week at Carolina including by nearly 200 yards through the air but they were done in by turnovers. The Vikings hung on to beat Detroit last week but they did lose the stats battle there. Remember their last road game was at Philly and they got destroyed by the Eagles. I have a strong feeling the Saints win this one outright given all of the above. Statistically, they are the better team on both offense and defense so far this season but have been done in by turnovers. Watch Dalton and Hill both produce well for the Saints offense in this one. Grabbing the generous points here. 8* NEW ORLEANS +3.5 |
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10-01-22 | LSU -8 v. Auburn | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -8 @ Auburn @ 7 ET - Laying 8 points on the road when in a rivalry game with a history of home team dominance? Must be crazy, right? No, in this case it makes all the sense in the world. LSU has Jayden Daniels at QB and his lower back strain is a minor one and he left last week's game because it was a blowout moreso than it being an injury concern. As for Auburn, the QB situation is much different and is ultra concerning. They ended up being down to their 4th string QB last week and barely got a win versus Missouri last week. Auburn's TJ Finley is listed as doubtful but likely to miss this game and was unable to practice. With Zach Calzada now out for the season, that means Robby Ashford gets the call here. He has 1 TD and 2 INT so far this season and now faces the toughest defense yet. I do not expect this to go well for Auburn given their injury situation at QB and LSU is also 3-1 just like Auburn. But LSU comes in rolling off 3 straight wins and their only loss was by a single point in week 1. Auburn comes in struggling with a blowout loss to Penn State two weeks ago and a nail-biter win last week. LSU has double revenge for home loss last season in this match-up and for ugly loss here at Auburn two years ago. This one is going to go a lot different for sure. Road rout here. 10* LSU -8 |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - This is a tough spot for Baylor in my opinion. They started the season at home, then went all the way to Utah to face BYU, then home again, then north Iowa to face Iowa State, and now back home again. They face a talented Oklahoma State team that is coming off a bye week. Not only that, they have revenge on their minds from last year's Big 12 Championship Game loss to Baylor. They actually won the yardage battle by about 100 yards in that one but were done in by turnovers and they failed to win despite being favored by nearly a TD. That said, how do they do as a road dog? The last 7 times they have not lost the money a single time! One push and 6 covers as an away puppy and given they have the scheduling edge and the revenge, love the Cowboys in this spot. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +2.5 |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies -2.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 10:30 ET - I know the Huskies are certainly not known for being Pac-12 road warriors but they are every bit deserving of their #15 ranking on the season. On that note, UCLA is 0-12 SU the last 12 times they have faced a team that is ranked #15 or higher and many of those games were at home just like this one is. Also, the Bruins also lost all 12 of those games by at least 3 points. So, with us laying 2.5 points, this is indeed a 12-0 / 100% SPOT in favor of the Huskies! Look for that streak to reach 13 in a row here. The Bruins did beat a #16 LSU team last year so I do want to note that but this other streak has been triple checked and I like it a lot! UCLA known for struggling to seal the deal in the biggest games. What I really like here is the way former Indiana QB Pennix has thrived in Washington. This is his 5th year so he is loaded with experience. Thompson-Robinson certainly commands respect for the Bruins as well but I feel we have the better overall team in this match-up. The Huskies have faced tougher teams the past two weeks with games against Michigan State and Stanford. Those match-ups certainly tougher than the Bruins facing South Alabama and Colorado. The fact is the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 while the Jaguars are a Sun Belt team who, by the way, nearly had the Bruins beat here at UCLA in that match-up! The hosts had to rally to win the game in the 4th quarter. So UCLA won the game by 1 point in a game in which the yardage was nearly equal and in which the Bruins trailed by 8 points going to the 4th quarter. Huskies have faced the tougher schedule and have looked better in doing so. I know those games have been at home but the Huskies can win on the road too and they are loaded with confidence right now. 10* WASHINGTON -2.5 |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +1 @ New York Giants @ 8:15 - It is hard to stay undefeated in the NFL for very long. This is the final game of week 3 and only the Dolphins in AFC and Eagles in NFC are 3-0 teams. The point is that the Giants have a chance here too as they are 2-0 but it shows you how odds are stacked against this happening considering there are 32 teams in the league and all but 3 of them have at least 1 loss on the year. Aside from the "odds factor" here, I am playing Dallas in this one because their defense really impressed in the week 2 win over the Bengals and I also liked what I saw from Cooper Rush at QB. Yes it has hurt the Cowboys that they are without QB Dak Prescott but they still are a very talented team that annually is a threat for double digit wins in recent years. Conversely, the Giants have annually been a threat for double digits losses for half a decade now. New York has played better than expected and is 2-0 to start the season but I still don't trust QB Daniel Jones. After a good rookie season he had nearly as many INTs as TDs the past two seasons combined. I know he is off to a good start this season but he is going to face a tough challenge here with the way Dallas can get after the QB. I expect the Cowboys to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Also, Cowboys have won 9 of last 10 games against Giants. Also, Dallas has covered 6 straight games in divisional action. The Cowboys, long-term, on a very strong ATS run and that opening game primetime embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay has them primed for a much better effort on the road in this primetime affair. They can know up the Giants for a tie for 2nd place in the division with a win here. Yes it is early in the season but you can bet the Cowboys are very hungry here while Giants dealing with a little extra pressure to remain unbeaten and they are at home and facing a nemesis and coming off B2B dramatic tight wins. 10* DALLAS +1 |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers have a good defense no doubt but San Francisco has seen bad offenses so far this season. Bears one of worst offenses in league and that opening week game at Chicago was played in rainy conditions. Then in week 2 the Niners faced a bad Seahawks offense. Seattle, like Chicago, will likely end up being one of the worst teams in the league this season. Now I know what your thinking...the Broncos lost to that bad Seattle team in week 1. However, Denver outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and that was simply a bad beat for people that backed them - just like I did win week 1. That was a Monday night game and a big one for Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle. So the Broncos QB and the entire Denver team had a bit of a lackluster effort against a bad Texans team ad playing playing on a short week last week. Trust me, they'll now be ready for this primetime affair and they are not getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Broncos also have a good defense just like the Niners do. The difference is the 49ers lost QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury and Jimmy G was the back-up for a reason. He gets the start again here and the SF offense just is not that good no matter who is at QB. The Broncos have the better weapons and they have the better QB in Wilson. Add it all up plus the home dog value here and I am all over this one! 10* DENVER +1.5 |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Being a contrarian in the NFL has served me very well through the years. I love this spot for the Colts. They just lost at Jacksonville in embarrassing 24-0 fashion. This was after an embarrassing tie at Houston in which they outgained the Texans by over 200 yards but still did not win the game. Now Indianapolis plays their first home game of the season and they are catching 5.5 points against a Chiefs team off a very lucky win. Kansas City got the non-covering win versus the Chargers last week but were outgained, even though at home, by nearly 100 yards! The Chiefs truly only won that game because of a 99-yard interception return that was essentially a 14-point swing on the scoreboard. Now we get line value this week as a result. The 2-0 Chiefs at the 0-2 Colts. Looks like a no-brainer, right? No, this is the NFL and "on any given Sunday" holds very true in many games each and every week. The Colts are much better than they have shown so far and the Chiefs piled up yardage against a bad Cardinals defense in week 1 but then struggled quite a bit against a real defense in the form of the Chargers last week. Keep in mind, statistically the Colts have been much better on both sides of the ball then the point totals show. Grab the home dog and I am expecting an outright upset here but will grab the points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +5.5 |
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09-24-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Purdue -16 | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers -16 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - Rarely ever do I lay big points but this is one I will make a rare exception on. Even if Purdue lets up late in this game I still have them winning this game by at least 3 touchdowns. The Boilersmakers do have a pair of Big Ten road games on deck but they are off a road loss at Syracuse and are angry after letting that game slip away. Purdue, after today, has only one home game between now and November. I don't see them holding back here. They will run up the score in this one. This team throws the ball a lot and they are in need of a big win. Remember they lost a tough tight one at home to Penn State in the waning minutes earlier this season. In between the tough tight late-game losses to the Nittany Lions and the Orange, the Boilermakers crushed Indiana State 56-0. Of course Florida Atlantic is not an FCS program like the Sycamores are BUT that still does not change the fact that the Owls are not a great football team and they play in the weak SunBelt conference. This line is saying that Purdue would only be favored by 13 on a neutral field but I don't buy that given the situation. The Boilers have put up some big numbers on offense this season and FAU just does not have the firepower to keep up. Yes the Owls put up some big numbers against lesser competition but they were finally a dog last week and scored just 14 points against UCF. The other teams FAU has faced are a combined 3-7 and included an FCS school also. The Boilers, a Big Ten off a loss and having played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, absolutely pour it on in this one! 8* PURDUE -16 |
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09-24-22 | Texas v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7 |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - If you just look at points scored versus points allowed you don't get an accurate picture of where these two 1-1 AFC North rival teams are really at right now. The fact is that Cleveland has been the much better team statistically in comparison with Pittsburgh. Adding to the value with the Browns here is they have more than just the home field edge here. It is expected to be very windy in Cleveland for this one and that makes the ground game all the more important. The Steelers are not a good a ground team and also don't defend the run well. Conversely, the Browns are strong in both those areas. They can pound it on the ground and they do a good job of stuffing the run on the other side of the ball. That said, we have excellent line value here with Cleveland laying a rather short number in this one. I like to look for dogs in the NFL generally speaking but the Steelers are a really bad football team right now on both sides of the ball. The Browns will take advantage as they are angry off the late-game home loss to the Jets last week. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh was outgained 432 to 267 in week 1 but had a 5-0 turnover edge and yet still need OT to get the win at Cincinnati. The Browns have only 1 turnover in two games and the Steelers will not be so fortunate here receiving gifts like they did in the win over Bengals. Also, Pittsburgh was again outgained big, 376 to 243, by the Patriots last week and that game was at Heinz Field! This is a tough road spot for the Steelers plus the Browns have double revenge from last season in addition to being angry about last week's loss to the Jets! 10* CLEVELAND -4 |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
NFL Monday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - Long-term NFL betting has as much to do with line value as anything else and getting Philly at less than a field goal at home here is a good value. Some of this value was created by the Vikings looking strong to the betting public because of a 23-7 win over Green Bay last week but their yardage edge was slim in that game plus it was in Minnesota. Another key the value here is the Eagles had a big lead at Detroit last week but then gave up some late scoring to the Lions. That put a bit of anti-Philly buzz on this game. So with a line less than the key number of 3, why am I comfortable taking Philadelphia here besides just the value? Well, the Vikings are now on the road where last season they went just 3-6 SU. Also, one of those wins came against a Bears team that was so bad last season that they had a 5-game HOME losing streak going until they beat the Giants in their home finale. Another Vikes road win came in OT. So, the point is that the Vikings have certainly not been "road warriors" of late. As for the Eagles, they enter this game having won 3 of last 4 at home but note the only loss was that meaningless regular season finale versus Dallas last year. Eagles already knew they were going to playoffs already. The point is that in meaningful games, and after last week's road win at Detroit, Philly has won 7 of 8 in regular season action including 3 straight at home. I am grabbing the value with the home team here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -2.5 |
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09-18-22 | Colts -2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5 or -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Line value because the Colts are on the road. Line value because everyone saw Colts end up in an overtime tie at Houston last week. Line value because many may not have realized Indianapolis won the yardage battle 517 to 299 over the Texans last week. Line value because many may have forgotten (but Colts surely have not) that it was these Jaguars that cost Indy a playoff berth last season. Line value because many may have forgotten (but we have not) that Jacksonville, after last week's loss, is now on a long-term 4-30 SU run. Going further back it is a 15-51 SU run for the Jags. It has been a long time since the Jaguars have put a winning team on the field as their last successful season was 2017. Conversely, this Colts team is a winner and they prove it on Sunday and get payback for last year's loss. Very comfortable laying the short number here. Look for QB Matt Ryan to cut down on the fumbles here and for Indy to, overall, have a very complete game in this one which will lead to a dominating road win. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 or -3 |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes +6 @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 9 ET - The Aggies were upset 17-14 by Appalachian State last week even though they were at home. The 3-point loss (so tight on the scoreboard) must have been a fluke upset, right? Actually, not at all! The Mountaineers kicked the Aggies ass all over the field. The final stats were insane. App St 315 yards to 186 for Texas A & M. Additionally, the Mountaineers had 22 first downs compared to just 9 for the Aggies. Are you kidding me? This is embarrassing and now the Aggies host a talented Miami team. The Hurricanes got caught looking ahead to this game as last week they were sluggish in the first half versus Southern Miss. However, they took over in the 2nd half and dominated the Golden Eagles for a big win. The Canes have the QB edge in this match-up for sure and I like the defensive line additions Miami made heading into this season. If the Aggies can't control the line of scrimmage on offense, they will sputter on that side of that ball. They are not getting good QB play and will not be able to establish the run game. All that said, really feel that A & M is going to have a helluva time trying to just win this game let alone win it by at least a TD. Outright upset would not surprise me for sure and no hesitation in grabbing the 6 points for this one as added insurance. 10* MIAMI +6 |
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09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | 29-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Saturday CFB 8* Purdue Boilermakers +1.5 @ Syracuse Orange @ Noon ET - I was very impressed with the Boilermakers performance against Penn State in their season opener. Then they throttled an FCS school last week. Syracuse is getting a lot of love here because they beat Louisville by a big margin in week 1. However, the starts in that game show the final score was a bit of a phony final. Cardinals had a couple of a missed scoring opportunities. Also, the Orange then played a bad UConn team last week. Syracuse has beaten a Cardinals team that is now 11-16 since start of 2020 season and the Orange also beat a Connecticut team that is on an 11-54 run last 65 games. I am not sold on this Syracuse team just yet and the Orange are getting a little too much respect from the markets here. Yes, the dome in Syracuse is not an easy place for visiting teams to play but the Boilermakers play in the Big Ten. The Boilers are used to having to play in tough places and also against much tougher teams than this Orange team. O'Connell putting up big numbers so far for Boilermakers and has 6 TDs and 0 INTs too! Road team gets the win here! 8* PURDUE +1.5 |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +4 or +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I am much more impressed with the Chargers win over a solid Raiders team last week then the Chiefs big win over a Cardinals team that is a mess right now. Arizona is without suspended WR D'Andre Hopkins right now and that make them a different team in big way. Also, the Cardinals defense was already a concern coming into this season so the wounded offense was going to have to carry them. The Chiefs showed that is not going to happen but now Kansas City faces a much tougher test here. The Chargers showed last week their defense can step up. Also, LA won here at KC last season so that is a confidence boost as well. I don't trust this Chiefs defense. I know the Chargers are without WR Keenan Allen this week but they still have very solid receiving options and I love having the sizable points being offered in this one. Los Angeles has lost the money only 4 times the last 20 times they have been a divisional road dog! Kansas City will be an all-out war here just win this game...let alone win it by 5 or more points! Grab the points in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 or +4.5 |
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09-12-22 | Broncos -6.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - I have said it before and I will say it again here. Generally speaking, the odds makers are the sharpest people around. The Broncos come into this season projected to reach double digits in wins. The Seahawks win total projection is just 5.5 victories. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl indicate you have a better chance of taking your money and buying a lottery ticket. The Broncos odds for winning Super Bowl show only 5 teams with lower odds. Those 5 teams entering the season were Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers and Rams. Those 5 teams went 67-17 last season. Pretty elite company, wouldn't you say? Yes, a lot of coaching changes in Denver and a new QB in Russell Wilson but I would not be surprised to see it all click right out of the gate. Love the Broncos defense and they should enjoy success here against a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith. There is a reason Smith has not been a regular starter in the NFL in about 8 years! That said, I have the better defense (Seattle has regressed a lot on that side of the ball), better offense (Russell Wilson over Geno Smith takes this to elite level of edges), and the better overall team that comes into this season much more confident than a Seattle team that knows the writing is on the wall for a full-on rebuild this season. Not a big fan of laying points on the road but this is one of those very special situations that has "road rout" written all over it. Wilson will not hold back against his former team here. Broncos should enjoy piling it on here. 10* DENVER -6.5 |
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09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Similar to my play on the Bills Thursday, here I am playing on a team that has been so hungry to take the field again after an ultra-disappointing playoff finish. Tennessee earned the #1 seed in the AFC last season yet lost to the Bengals at home in a turnover-filled affair. The Titans have waited a long time to make up for that effort and the Giants will prove to be no match here. New York's Daniel Jones had a solid rookie season but has since had B2B mediocre seasons and will not be able to match Ryan Tannehill for the Titans here. Look at the numbers that Tannehill has produced the last 4 seasons including the last 3 with Tennessee and compare that to what Jones has done the last two seasons. This is a Giants team that has not won more than 6 games in a season since 2016! Yet this line is saying Titans are only a couple points better than New York on a neutral field. I say no way that is the case and I expect Jones' struggles to continue in a tough road environment here and he will be mistake-prone while Tannehill bounces back with a strong effort at home after January's disappointing playoff performance ended the Titans season earlier than expected. I truly like to take points rather than lay points in the NFL generally speaking but this one is just too much of a mismatch as we have the better defense and better overall team and the home field edge. That said, I am looking for a win by at least a full TD here for the Titans. 10* TENNESSEE -5.5 |
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09-11-22 | Saints -5 v. Falcons | 27-26 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -5 or -5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - Coming into this season I really liked the Bills and Saints. I feel if Jameis Winston can stay healthy for New Orleans that the Saints are capable of making noise in the NFC. As for the AFC, we all saw what Buffalo is capable of in their Thursday night domination of the Rams. The point is that even though I am not a big fan of laying points on the road in a divisional match-up in the NFL, I am not going to waver from my strong thoughts about Buffalo and New Orleans entering this season. The Falcons are a really bad team and could end up being the worst team in the league this season. The Saints might contend for the Super Bowl. They have a solid defense and the Falcons defense was horrid last season. Also, now Atlanta has Mariota at QB instead of Ryan. There are going to be some growing pains for this Falcons offense early this season while I expect Winston and the Saints to hit the ground running! 8* NEW ORLEANS -5 or -5.5 |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -2.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 10:15 ET - Both teams played weaker foes last week but, still, you could tell by the lines that the tougher tests wa for BYU on the road at South Florida and yet they completely steamrolled the Bulls including jumping out to a 38-0 lead! Baylor hosted an FCS Albany team so they were not tested at all. The Bears lost nearly half their defensive starters from last season and the Cougars return one of the most experienced teams in the country. Not only that, this game is at home in the thin air of Provo, UT and this is another factor favoring Brigham Young in a big way. The Bears beat the Cougars last season but that game was at Baylor and BYU was banged up on defense entering that one. This most certainly is not the case here and we get the more veteran team in an early-season game at home and laying a short number. Don't let the line fool you. Some may be surprised to see a top ten team getting a field goal playing a team that barely has cracked the top 25. Trust me, is not a mistake. Lay it! This is Cougars first home game of season and they only last ONCE at home the past two seasons combined! As for the Bears, they lost twice on the road last season and lost all 5 of their road games the year before. This is still a major test for them even though they have improved a lot since that 2020 disaster. Still too much to ask for them early in the season in this one and feel strongly that Cougars win this solidly at home. 10* BYU -2.5 |
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09-10-22 | North Carolina -7 v. Georgia State | 35-28 | Push | 0 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels -7 @ Georgia State Panthers @ Noon ET - The Tar Heels are not getting much respect from the odds makers here because they gave up a bunch of late points at Appalachian State last week. Two comments to that. First off, lesson learned as UNC paid for getting too comfy with a huge lead and almost blew the game. Secondly, the Mountaineers have a very balanced attack as they can both run and throw very well. As for this Georgia State team that UNC will be facing this week, that is most certainly not the case. The Panthers were 7 for 29 throwing the ball against South Carolina last week. Yes Georgia State has a dangerous ground game but North Carolina can stack the box against the run and dare the Panthers to throw the ball. That being said, just can not see Georgia State being able to keep up here! The Tar Heels were already known last season for a dynamic offense and they certainly have not disappointed in that regard this season either. UNC is averaging 59.5 points per game this season and the Panthers will hang around for awhile in this one and are exciting to be hosting an ACC team. But the fact remains the Tar Heels offense is too much and they eventually pull away for the victory by much more than a TD in my opinion. 8* NORTH CAROLINA -7 |
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09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
Friday CFB 8* Louisville Cardinals +5.5 / 6 / 6.5 @ Central Florida Knights @ 7:30 ET - We are getting extra line value because Cards were bad at Syracuse last week. The Cardinals indeed did not fare well against the Orange at the Carrier Dome but this team will be better this season and I have a feeling they will surprise the Knights here. I am not saying they win outright (though that would not shock me) rather I am just saying this has high probability to be a highly competitive game so I love having the points here. UCF played an FCS school last week so let's not over-react to their big win last week. Also, Central Florida lost to Louisville last season and had trouble slowing them down in the eventual 42-35 loss. Just like the value here in fading a team that last season, based on yardage offensively, ranked in the middle of the pack and they are facing a Cards team that ranked in the top 25 last season on offense based on yardage production. Yes, last week the Cardinals were stopped on downs at the 2 yard line and threw an INT in the end zone and that had a lot to do with them finishing with just 7 points in a game in which they did total 334 yards. They will be better this week and they will score plenty against this UCF defense. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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09-08-22 | Bills -2 v. Rams | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I feel the Bills are going to be on a mission all season long and it starts tonight in a game they thought they would have in February. Indeed, were it not for a miraculous Chiefs win over the Bills January in a wild one, Buffalo would have met Cincinnati the next week. The way those teams match up, Bills would have prevailed over Bengals - in my opinion - and would have then faced LA in the Super Bowl. So it has been a long wait for the Bills but now they do get their shot at the Rams here in September instead and I fully expect they will make the most of it. Yes, maybe it seems hard to fade the defending champs on their home turf but this Buffalo team is so strong. I also like the fact LA lost some veteran players on defense. The Bills have a very balanced offense. Also, on defense, the Bills were one of the top teams in the league against the pass and Rams rely heavily on the pass on offense. The rushing attack of Los Angeles is not a strength so this match-up favors the Bills too. Great pass protection for Buffalo too so that helps negate a Rams strength of last season - their pass rush. I love this match-up and the hunger of the road team and it is not often you are going to be able to get the Bills at such an affordable price this season. Lay the very small number here and look for the Bills to win by at least a field goal though I truly expect a win by at least a TD here. 10* BUFFALO -2 |
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09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU -3.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Sunday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -3.5 vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - The SEC sure does look strong, as per usual. LSU is the only team yet to play and every other team won their games and there was quite a bit of domination thrown around. Now, as for the ACC, Clemson will meet Georgia Tech tomorrow but, other than that Florida State is the only team yet to play. However, 3 teams already lost games (granted a Louisville or Syracuse was inevitable) and the ACC (other than Clemson) just not on the same level overall as SEC teams overall. LSU is going to be much stronger under new head coach Brian Kelly and they are facing a solid ACC team here but still look at some of yesterday's results. NC State barely beat East Carolina, Louisville scored just 7 points, Boston College and Virginia Tech each lost their games. There is still a gap in levels between these two conferences and the Tigers are VERY hungry and rejuvenated with the Kelly regime now here. LSU is off a disappointing campaign so we are getting line value here. I look for the Tigers to be back with early momentum from the coaching change! The Seminoles also disappointed last season and a win over an FCS school in Week 0 might help confidence but this is not Duquesne they are facing this week! Mike Norvell, HC of FSU, has struggled in his tenure here so far. Keep in mind, HC Kelly was 34-6 with Cincinnati and then went 92-39 with Notre Dame. Florida State, ATS, does not have a good track record in recent games with teams from the Power 5 conferences. 10* LSU -3.5 |
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09-03-22 | Notre Dame +16 v. Ohio State | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish +16 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Yes the Irish have a new head coach but is not like he is new to the program. He was the defensive coordinator last season and helped transform that unit into a very strong defense. Of course Ohio State is annually one of the best programs in the country but the Irish will play their hearts out for this head coach. The players have responded very well to him and we saw already what he was able to do with the defense last season. That solid D will be a key here in keeping Notre Dame in this game because of course the Ohio State offense is fantastic. The ND offense, despite some personnel losses, is still ultra-talented and I feel the Irish are not being given enough respect in this the game. The line opened up at under 2 TD's but has since risen above that key number. I am happy to grab the extra line value here as the Fighting Irish have been solid in recent road openers and will be up to the challenge here. I would not be surprised to see this game decided by a one score margin as the Irish come in hungry and extremely motivated and are talented enough to keep this game interesting! 8* NOTRE DAME +16 |
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09-03-22 | Cincinnati v. Arkansas -6.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Razorbacks are an SEC team that lost to Alabama by just 7 points last season while Cincinnati got rolled by the Crimson Tide by 21 in the playoffs. The Bearcats also lost 8 players to the NFL draft so that is a lot of talent now gone from the roster. Arkansas also lost some starters but definitely have the experience edge here plus they have a powerful ground attack that will give the Cats defense some trouble here. This Cincinnati team just not going to be as strong as they were...not even close. The Hogs wear down the Bearcats as this game goes along and get the home win by a double digit margin. 8* ARKANSAS -6.5 |
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09-01-22 | Penn State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Thursday CFB 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - So the Lions finished 7-6 last season and got hammered in their bowl game loss to the Razorbacks by a two-TD margin. The Boilermakers went 9-4 last year plus beat Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. Purdue also is at home for this game. The Boilers also return more starters than PSU. Also, though Clifford is a very solid veteran QB for the Nittany Lions, Boilermakers QB O'Connell is probably the 2nd best QB in the conference behind Ohio State's Stroud. So all that said you have Penn State FAVORED by 3.5 points here. You think the odds makers do NOT know what they are doing? The Lions are favored here for a reason DESPITE all the above and a big key is because the Boilers offense lost their top two receivers from last season as one of them was ruled ineligible due to academics while the other one, Bell, is now a Cleveland Brown in the NFL! As for Penn State, no such problems. Not only do they bring back RB Lee, they also have WR Washington back plus they brought in a transfer from Western Kentucky (Tinsley) who had phenomenal numbers for the Hilltoppers last season. PSU has the better defense in this match-up and I know there are some questions about the offensive line for the Lions but that is an area they have filled in nicely despite departures from last season. O'Connell the better QB but Clifford is very solid and led PSU to a 5-0 start last year before he got hurt against Iowa. This Lions team is on a mission this year and they play in the tough east and rank behind only Ohio State and Michigan whereas Boilers play in the weaker West and I would rank them about 4th in Big Ten West. Roll with the road favorite here as they win by at least 7 and, more likely, double digits. 10* PENN STATE -3.5 |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 32 m | Show | |
NFL Super Bowl Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 vs Los Angeles Rams @ 6:30 ET - All the pressure is really on the Rams here. Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay got to the Super Bowl a few years ago and scored a measly 3 points against the Patriots. There is immense pressure on LA to make up for that effort here. In turn, that puts pressure on QB Matthew Stafford and he has been prone to turnovers in the past. Is this the game the turnover bug bites him again? This would not surprise me if it is. The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow come into this game in an entirely different situation. Cincinnati, of course, was not expected to be here. But the fact no one expects anything from them and any win through the post-season was just a bonus, this Bengals team is playing rather loose and relaxed. That said, and with the line move to the 4.5 range, I really like having the points here in a game in which an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. But having the points is truly a solid bonus as the Bengals have only failed to cover twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. Cincy has been an ATS covering machine. The Rams last ten games against teams with a winning record has seen them cover only three of the games. Value with the points. We'll take it! 8* CINCINNATI +4.5 |
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01-23-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 9* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3 ET - Do you think the Rams are only 4 points better than the Eagles team that the Bucs just flat out embarrassed last week? Me neither! But that is what this line is telling you as the Rams are +3 this week after the closing line on last week's game was Eagles +7. That is only a 4 point variance and I am not buying it. The odds makers do not intentionally set "trap lines" but this is one that will likely "trap" public bettors as Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl Champions are only a 3 point favorite on their home turf. The Rams look like a team on a mission after their dismantling of the Cardinals last week and I love their defense. Also, this is not a pedestrian offense for LA like the poor Philly offense with a rookie QB that TB faced last week. Upset alert! 9* LOS ANGELES RAMS +3 |
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01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Year NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +5.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The 49ers beat a good Cowboys team last week. That was not just about Dallas being bad it was that the Niners are built well for playoff football and they proved that last week. Defensively this team is solid and, oh by the way, San Francisco plays in a division with Arizona and the Rams. LA may have made the Cards look bad last week but the fact is both the Cardinals and Rams are very good teams and finished the regular season with a combined record of 23-11. As for the Packers, they play in a division with the likes of the Vikings, Bears, and Lions. Not only did none of those teams have a winning record, the 3 combined for a 17-33-1 record. Now don't get me wrong, Green Bay is an excellent team. I am just pointing out that they might be a bit over-valued. Also, Green Bay won at San Francisco earlier this season but the Niners lost the turnover battle 2-0. The 49ers actually had 26 first downs compared to only 21 for the Packers. Also, the line in that game was SF -3 and that means the markets considered the teams equal then. Now this game is at Green Bay and the line was as high as a -6 on the Packers. Suddenly GB is now deserving of an extra 3 points compared to the original match-up? The point is that if this line was priced the same was as the original match-up it would be GB -3. This is value. Packers played 17 games this season and only 8 were wins by more than 3 points which means 9 were not! You get my point. The Niners have now played 18 games and only 5 were losses by more than 3 points which means, of course, the other 13 games were not! I just look for a very tightly contested game quite possibly decided by 3 points and whether SF wins or GB wins I don't care as long as the margin is slim like that. The fact is though I sense an upset here. The Niners allowed 17 points per game last 6 games. GB, not including meaningless season finale in which they did not care, did enter that contest having allowed 26 points per game last 6 games. The better D and a very confident group will be able to get the upset here but I am grabbing the points for added insurance. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +5.5 |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Daytime Dominator 9* Top Play Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Huge rest edge here for Tennessee off the bye week while Cincinnati was in action for wild card weekend. Give the Bengals credit as they got it done last week and are elated to have finally won a playoff game after a 3-decade stretch without notching a post-season win. That said, Cincinnati has already achieved something and there was a lot of celebrating last week. However, now they are facing a much different animal. The Titans are not the Raiders...not even close. Playing a playoff game on the road instead of at home...not even close. The point is that Joe Burrow and the Bengals are in for a rude awakening going on the road and facing one of the top teams in the league and one with a good amount of playoff experience on its roster. Look for this to turn into a blowout as Cincinnati perfectly fits the mode of a "one and done" in terms of how they are built for a post-season run. They just don't have the ground game on offense that the hosts have and now those hosts getting back Derrick Henry at RB this week too. 9* TENNESSEE |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 11-34 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +4 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The road team won both meetings in the regular season. Rams on a 2-4 ATS run in home games. Cardinals were 8-1 SU and ATS in road games. Los Angeles known for playoff disappointment. I also like Murray over Stafford at the QB spot as the latter has been a little turnover-prone of late and the former is such a dangerous playmaker. The Cards are offering line value here because there is a lot of anti-Arizona sentiment based on their late season fade but a lot of that had to do with some injury issues that have since improved. Other than the split against Arizona, Los Angeles went just 1-4 SU in games against teams that ended up in the playoffs this season. Also, the Rams had a pair of wins against two other teams (Colts and Ravens) that came by margins of just 3 and 1, respectively. The point is that there is a lot of value with grabbing the points here in my opinion and an outright upset would certainly not surprise me in the least. 10* ARIZONA +4 |
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01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-17 | Win | 102 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Contrarian Crusher Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - You all likely know the traditional factor of a home team generally having a factor of 3 points in the line in the NFL. That said, this line is saying that these teams are equal even though Dallas finished 12-5 and won their division while the 49ers barely made the playoffs! San Francisco's 10-7 record placed them 3rd in their 4 team division. With all this said, you know where that places me on this game. When something does not look right most will just line up on that side where they feel there is a mistake and now they miraculously have some gift from the odds makers. It just does not work that way folks. Many may be enticed to play Dallas at home -3 here but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the public in this one. The Cowboys went only 5-3 at home this season and the Niners went 6-3 on the road. Also, SF won 7 of last 9 games and Dallas - other than 2 wins against Eagles in divisional battles - went 1-4 in games against playoff teams. This is another game where all the pressure is on the home favorite. In fact, the expectation is that if Cowboys don't make a run in this post-season there will be some coaching staff shake-ups. This is a lot of pressure on a team and Dallas has never been known for handling pressure well. Upset alert! 10* SAN FRANCISCO +3 |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +8 v. Bucs | 15-31 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The big underdog Eagles getting some help from mother nature in this one as very windy conditions expected in Tampa for this one. This could limit the passing games a bit and when you compare the running games of these teams the Eagles certainly hold the big edge. Since Philadelphia went to their heavy ground attack, that is when the team has flourished. Prior to their loss in a season-ending finale that had no meaning to them (guys sat, etc) Philly had won 7 of 9 games. Of course the Buccaneers are the defending Super Bowl champs and finished the season red hot so I am not saying the Eagles win this outright of course. I am simply saying that getting more than a TD is offering great value here. Before their blowout win over the Panthers in the season finale, only 5 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games were Bucs wins by more than a TD! The Eagles know they must get after Brady in this game and between the wind and QB pressure, I think Tom Brady and Company will be held in check more than usual in this game. The "we have nothing to lose" Eagles come into this game loose and relaxed knowing nothing is expected of them while all the pressure is on Brady and Company as one of the Super Bowl favorites. Glad to grab the big points here. 8* PHILADELPHIA +8 |
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01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots could be hosting this game but they instead went 1-3 their last 4 games. The Bills could be on the road for this game but instead they got the job done and went 4-0 last 4 games. Also, the experience of last year's post-season run for Buffalo and QB Josh Allen is huge. Allen had a 5-1 TD-INT ratio in last year's playoff run and that included a 3-0 ratio at home. Now he and the Bills take on a rookie QB Mac Jones making his first ever playoff start and it is on the road and it is in frigid conditions for a QB who played his college ball at Alabama. As for Allen, he played his college ball in Wyoming and certainly is no stranger to cold weather games. It will be frigid at Orchard Park Saturday and Allen and the Bills stay hot and make it 5 straight SU wins and, along the way, they get the cover too! 10* BUFFALO -4.5 |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line has moved back toward the Bengals now. We are seeing some +6 with a plus money price and even some +6.5 are now out there. Anyway, is now about 5 hours before kickoff so I don't want to hold off any longer because I don't think we are going to see any 7's show up on this one but we definitely have value with the big dog here in my opinion. All the pressure is on a Bengals team that is on an 0-8 SU run in the post-season and has not won a playoff game in 3 decades! Cincinnati is favored and feels the pressure to win here. The Raiders come into this game loose and relaxed plus on a 4-game winning streak. This is the perfect recipe for a dangerous dog situation! That is what I see here is an underdog that has been playing with an "us against the world" mentality for 4 straight weeks now and I look for them to at least get the cover even if their SU winning streak does finally come to an end. I don't trust the Bengals laying this many points in this situation and would not be surprised to see this game decided by a margin of only 3 or 4 points. 8* LAS VEGAS +6.5 |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Win and you are in! So this one pretty clear cut in terms of its magnitude for the post-season. That said, the winner is going to be the road team in my opinion and don't be fooled by the fact that the home team is an underdog here. Yes the Raiders have won 3 straight games but we will take a closer look at that 3-game win streak right after I remind you that Las Vegas had lost 5 of 6 before that 3-game run! So about those 3 wins, they faced a Colts team that got QB Wentz out of covid protocol essentially right before the game and it showed as Indy had their lowest yardage output of the season but clearly they were not ready for the game. The week before that the Raiders beat a Broncos team without QB Bridgewater and Denver was struggling on offense without him. The week before that LV beat a Browns team that was down to 3rd string QB and dealing with a covid mess. The point is that the Raiders got a ton of breaks during this 3-game winning streak and they had lost 5 of 6 before the string of good luck. Their luck runs out here as they face a QB that picked them apart in first meeting and is raring to go for the rematch as well. The Raiders finally face a healthy #1 QB and a rather healthy team overall that also is playing with a ton of motivation. The Chargers last 3 ROAD games against teams that are all now going to the playoffs were all wins and came by a combined score of 98 to 70. I look for another big road win here as the Raiders have had a season marred by off the field issues and problems and simply got lucky to even be in this spot. This is the week their luck has run out as this Las Vegas team - take a close look at them - simply does not have the look of a playoff team. The road favorite proves that on the field tonight! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2.5 |
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01-09-22 | Colts -14.5 v. Jaguars | 11-26 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Colts need a win for the playoffs and the Jaguars need a loss for the top pick in the NFL draft. Look for both teams to punch their ticket! The Colts are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games! The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS last 7 games overall. This line falling into the -14 range makes Indianapolis worthy of investment here. The Colts should absolutely annihilate a Jags team that is again the laughingstock of the NFL. Supposedly some Jacksonville fans will show up dressed as clowns for this game as that is how far things have fallen for Jags. You have to feel sorry for Trevor Lawrence getting into this mess after all his success at QB at a powerhouse CFB program like Clemson. That said, QB Carson Wentz and head coach Frank Reich are coming off the Colts worst yardage performance of the season in last week's loss to the bad defense of the Raiders. They simply overlooked them and now they take out their frustration on a bad Jags team. This one gets very ugly and I know the line is big but you can see per the stats (6-0 ATS, 0-7 ATS) above that it is 100% justified and I am expecting a win by at least a 3 TD margin here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -14 |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +11 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:30 ET - The Chiefs can still get to the #1 seed in the AFC if they simply win this game and the Titans lose Sunday. While the former has a good chance (though I expect a tight game) the latter is highly improbable as Tennessee is also a double digit favorite this weekend since they are facing the Texans. Mentally, the Chiefs are not in the right frame of mind for a blowout win here. They blew their chance at the #1 seed by losing to the Bengals last week. There will be some carryover effect from that loss into this game. Also, KC's biggest concern here has to be staying healthy. The Broncos, on the other hand, have no such concerns here and I expect them to be flying all over the field with aggression as they host a long-time division rival that has had their number for about 5 or 6 seasons in a row now. Yes, the Broncos have a tough QB situation but this team is highly motivated here, will be going hard at home in this one, and can throw caution to the wind in an all-out effort to finish the season with a win over a hated division rival. I will grab the big points here as I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Chiefs need to stay healthy. They know their chances of the #1 seed are very slim and it is better to avoid injury here. 10* DENVER +11 |
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01-04-22 | LSU +7 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Situational Slaughter Tuesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers +7 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 9 ET - The Wildcats scored a COMBINED total of just 27 points in their last two games of the season and that included one against a Longhorns team that had a bad season. The Tigers scored 27 points in EACH of their last two games of the season and that included an outright upset win over a solid Texas A & M team which made sure LSU got their 6th win and is the reason they are playing in a bowl game. I look for them to make the most of the opportunity. Kansas State has gone from being a -2.5 favorite to now being favored at a full -7 as of game day. Yes there are reasons for the line move but long-time followers know I love to fade line moves and grab the value on the other side. Certainly the Cats played a respectable schedule as they play in the Big 12 but the Tigers and the SEC schedule was even tougher. Too much value to pass up on with the big points being offered here. 10* LSU +7 |
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01-03-22 | Browns +3 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year Monday NFL 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Browns are eliminated from playoff contention while the Steelers remain alive with a win tonight though they would also have to win plus get unlikely help next week. The point is that Pittsburgh is playing with playoff pressure while Cleveland is not. The Browns have now gone from being a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog in this one. The line swing of about a full TD is simply too much. Keep in mind, the Steelers are a rival for Cleveland. Just as their playoff hopes were squelched yesterday, the Browns would love nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes tonight. There is no pressure to do so but they would love to do it. So you have a road team playing loose and relaxed and hungry for an elimination win over a rival. You have a host that has not even scored a first-half touchdown in ANY of their last FIVE games and is playing with playoff pressure here. The Steelers are a bit lucky they are even 2-3 SU in their last five games and I look for them to struggle to score points again in this one. The Browns will deliver a "shocker" tonight as Pittsburgh is the team that needs to win but, to this day, the betting markets have just never fully gotten a grasp on this. The reaction is that if a team needs to win it will win and that is just not how this stuff works. This is particularly true in a rivalry game. I'll happily take the points in this one! 10* CLEVELAND +3 |
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01-02-22 | Vikings +13 v. Packers | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +13 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 PM ET - Frigid temperatures expected for this one and it is a divisional battle and it is just too many points in my opinion. Even though Vikings are with their #2 QB, Mannion can be a good game manager and I am expecting a huge game from RB Cook in this one. The Packers should still win this game but I expect it to be by a margin closer to the original 1 TD line on this game not two TDs! The home team has won just twice in last five meetings between these divisional foes and the two wins by the host were each by 5 or less points! Green Bay has won 4 in a row but all but 1 were by 8 or less points! The Vikings have played 15 games this season and not one of them have been a loss by more than 8 points! That means if you had the Vikes +13 in all games this season you would be a perfect 15-0! Happy to test that edge here! 10* MINNESOTA +13 |
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01-02-22 | Eagles -4.5 v. Washington Football Team | 20-16 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
NFL PA Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 @ Washington Football Team @ 1 ET - The Eagles dominated Washington in their game last month much more than the 27-17 final would indicated. Philadelphia outgained them by 282 yards so the final score could have been much worse! Now Washington enters this game off an ultra-embarrassing loss to the rival Cowboys. A performance like that against a rival is an indication of a football club that has quit on the season. That said, I look for the Eagles to pound the Football Team again in this one and we have good line value here because Philly is on the road. If they were at home they would be laying double digits but on the road it is keeping this line in the -4.5 range and each of the Eagles last 6 wins have been by 10 or more points. As for Washington, each of their last 8 losses have been by 7 or more points. Lay the number with the road team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels -1 vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense in this match-up. Also, could Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon be impacted by the fact he has missed some recent game action with a hamstring injury? I believe the answer to that will prove to be yes. Keep in mind, the Rebels allowed an average of only 18 points per game over their last 4 games. The Bears are off a tight 21-16 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but did allow 24 or more points in 6 of 9 games heading into that one. Also, in their win over the Cowboys they actually were outgained by nearly 100 yards but were the beneficiary of 4 Oklahoma State interceptions in that game. That is not happening again here as Mississippi QB Matt Corral threw only 4 all year and plus threw for 20 touchdowns. Also, the Rebels have an excellent ground attack so they have a balanced offense and a tremendously solid defense! The Bears are in trouble here and are over-rated in my opinion and the SEC foe how had only 2 losses this season will get it done. One of their only two losses was to mighty Alabama and the other one was to a very solid Auburn team that had almost beaten the Crimson Tide this season. 10* OLE MISS -1 |
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01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State -3.5 | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
CFB Contrarian Crusher Saturday 9* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - This is a contrarian play here. The common viewpoint on this game is that Ohio State is disappointed to be here. Lets not forget this is the Rose Bowl! Yes the Buckeyes were playing for the national championship last year and this year they will not be. However, this is an Ohio State team that is angry after losing badly at Michigan to finish their regular season off. The Buckeyes want to erase the bitter taste of defeat from their mouths here and they also want to get some redemption against a Pac-12 foe as their only other loss this season came at the hands of Oregon. That is the same Ducks team that the Utes manhandled twice this season. However, Ohio State is coming to play here and Utah does not have the explosive offense that the Buckeyes have. Look for that to be a key difference maker here and the favorite pulls away as this game goes on. They are far more motivated for this game than most realize. 9* OHIO STATE -3.5 |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Wolverines are known for struggling in big games. I know Michigan finally came up big in their big game versus Ohio State and also won the Big Ten Championship over Iowa. However, that does not change the fact that the Wolverines have lost 4 straight bowl games both SU and ATS and now they face a team that might be the best team in the country. I know Georgia lost to Alabama but this Bulldogs team is really something else. They had allowed only 7 points per game in 12 straight wins before the loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now we get a chance to take one of the best teams in the country off a loss and laying only about a TD and we can fade a team with a poor recent bowl history under Harbaugh...I'll take it! Lay the points for a big play here. The Bulldogs defense will be the difference in this one. The Wolverines allowed 23.6 in their 5 games away from home before the Big Ten Championship. The Bulldogs never allowed more than 17 points this season until the loss to Crimson Tide. Michigan allowed 17 points or more in all 5 of those games away from before beating Iowa. The Dawgs D rules the day here. 10* GEORGIA -7.5 |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama -13.5 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
CFB Contrarian Crusher Friday 9* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats are undefeated and yet nearly a two TD underdog against a Crimson Tide team that has one loss on the season. Big mistake by the odds makers, right? Hardly! In typical contrarian fashion, laying the big points in this one! Look for Alabama to crush Cincinnati here. The Tide played a tougher schedule, have the much better passing attack and the much better run defense. All signs pointing to a blowout here as the Bearcats finally find out what it is like to take a major step up in class in terms of the high level of opponent they are now facing. They finally got their wish of being a part of the national title discussion and having that chance to prove that a smaller program can get it done on the big stage. Unfortunately for Cincinnati though, this story does not have a good ending. 9* ALABAMA -13.5 |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Peach Bowl Blowout Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Panthers have the better numbers overall this season and I definitely like their edge on defense in this match-up in particular. Yes there are some opt-outs for this game but that is effecting both teams. I also know the Spartans have the better recent bowl history but feel we have value with the defensive-minded physical underdog in this match-up. The Panthers hold the edges in pass defense and I like their ground game too. Strong rushing team and with a solid defense and they are an underdog. This one has all the right ingredients that equate to value. Also, Pat Narduzzi is Pittsburgh's head coach and he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan State from 2007 to 2014. The Spartans are coached by Mel Tucker and this is the first ever bowl game he has coached in. Grab the points! 10* PITTSBURGH |