Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-22-17 | UCF v. Temple -2 | 71-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Wednesday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs UCF Golden Knights @ 7 ET - The Owls final two games of the regular season are against Tulane and South Florida. Those two teams are a combined 12-40 on the season. That said, the Owls are certainly fully focused on Central Florida here. This is the last "big game" of the regular season for Temple and they are fired up for this game for more reasons than one. Not only the Owls off of a disappointing "end game performance" where they let one get away versus Connecticut Sunday, Temple also hasn't forgotten what happened down in Central Florida early in conference action. Back on December 31st the Golden Knights held the Owls to 11 points in the 1st half! It was simply an abysmal performance that a team does not forget. Look for Temple to make the most of this revenge opportunity Wednesday. The Owls are catching UCF at a good time as the Golden Knights are off of a rare road win in conference action. Central Florida got a non-covering win at East Carolina Saturday. Prior to this victory, UCF had lost 5 straight road games in AAC action with their lone win away from home coming back before that home win over Temple. Way back on December 28th, the Golden Knights won at Tulane (the worst team in the conference). As you can see from their track record this season (as well as the situational factors here), back to back road wins for UCF is highly unlikely. The Owls are a long-term 18-6 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The past 3 seasons combined, the Golden Knights are 0-5 SU (and 1-4 ATS) as a road dog of 3 points or less. Lay the short number in this one! 8* TEMPLE |
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02-22-17 | Vanderbilt +4 v. Tennessee | 67-56 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #703 Wednesday 8* Vanderbilt Commodores (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ 6:30 ET - Big time revenge spot for Vandy. Not only did the Commodores suffer a home loss to the Vols last month, Vanderbilt has been knocked out of the SEC Tourney by Tennessee each of the past two seasons! In terms of regular season action, before the loss last month, the Commodores had actually won 3 straight meetings against the Volunteers. Vandy has won each of its last two visits to Tennessee and this is a nice set up here. The Vols are off of a big home win versus a bad Missouri team but previously had lost 3 of their last 4. The Commodores come into this game having won back to back games and 6 of their last 9. However, Vanderbilt did lose its most recent road game - after having won 3 straight away from home - so they're fired up about bouncing back from a horrible shooting performance in their most recent road game. Coincidentally, that game was at Missouri - the same team that the Volunteers just trounced in Tennessee. The Vols are only 12-28 ATS as a favorite the past 3 seasons combined and also just 5-16 ATS when off of a win against a conference foe. Vandy is 9-5 ATS as an underdog this season and also 3-1 ATS when playing with home loss revenge! Look for the avenging Commodores to get the upset win Wednesday but I'll gladly grab the points in this one. 8* VANDERBILT |
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02-21-17 | Clemson +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - I am calling this one an ESPN Smash Pass since it is on ESPNU Tuesday but it just as easily could have been called a Contrarian Crusher because I certainly am "going against the grain" here. When one looks at this game one can help but notice that Virginia Tech is 18-8 on the season and a respectable 7-7 in ACC action while Clemson is only 4-10 in conference action. Not only that, the Hokies are a fantastic 13-1 in home games and the Tigers are an ugly 3-6 in true road games this season. That said, how in the world did Virginia Tech open up as only a 2 point favorite here? Precisely! Give me Clemson! I love to fade the masses in games like this and I fully expect many will load up on the Hokies given the parameters I just outlined above. Why are the Tigers the play? For one thing Virginia Tech is off of a grueling 94-90 loss at Louisville Saturday where they lost despite shooting 59% from the field and 65% from three point land. To shoot that well and still lose says a lot about the Hokies! Another factor is the absence of Chris Clarke who recently was lost for the season. He led the team in rebounding and steals and was also one of the top players for assists and scoring! Among the starters, Clarke also led the team in FG %. His absence is a big one and Clemson could easily be coming into this game on a 7-1 run. In fact the Tigers are only 3-5 their last 8 games but 3 losses came by just 1 or 2 points and even the loss at Miami Saturday (by 6 points) was not decided until the final minute. Clemson is flying a bit "under the radar" right now as a result and I see them getting revenge for a 1 point home loss to Virginia Tech a month ago. In comparing these two teams the Tigers have played the tougher schedule this season. Additionally, the Hokies are 1-4 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 79 points or more. Virginia Tech is also an ugly 1-3 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 89 or more points this season. The Hokies just won't have enough left in the tank after that loss to the Cardinals and the avenging Tigers are the play here. 10* CLEMSON |
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02-21-17 | Rhode Island -3 v. La Salle | 67-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #501 Tuesday 8* Rhode Island Rams (-) @ LaSalle Explorers @ 6 ET - Perfect set-up here. The Rams didn't just lose to LaSalle in Rhode Island last month, they got thoroughly embarrassed. Rhode Island was a 12 point favorite that lost the game by a dozen and was down 21 points at halftime! In a very unusual discrepancy, the road team Explorers had 41 free throw attempts in that game compared to just 19 for the Rams. Now Rhode Island catches LaSalle off of a huge win as the Explorers just knocked off Philadelphia Big Five rival St Joseph's Saturday. Prior to that win LaSalle was only 2-6 in their last 8 games and all 3 wins in their last 9 games have come against teams that are currently below .500 on the season. Now the Explorers host a revenge-seeking 17-9 Rhode Island team. The Rams are off of a win at George Mason Saturday and have won all 3 of their road games the past 4 weeks. Overall it has been a 7-3 run for Rhode Island since that ugly home loss to LaSalle and the stronger team catches a weaker foe off a huge win. That sets this one up beautifully for a road rout. The Rams are 6-3 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Rhode Island is also 4-1 SU and ATS this season in Tuesday games. The Explorers are 4-10 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, LaSalle is 1-6 SU (and 2-5 ATS) as an underdog this season. That lone SU win came against the Rams as noted above. Payback time! 8* RHODE ISLAND |
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02-20-17 | Texas +15.5 v. West Virginia | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Monday 8* Texas Longhorns (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 9 ET - Even though the Longhorns have gone winless away from home this season, they are actually 6-3 ATS in true road games and they are undervalued here. West Virginia is off of a 9 point win versus Texas Tech but that final score is deceiving as it was a multiple overtime game. The fact is that the Mountaineers are only 9-5 in their last 14 games with just 2 wins by more than 16 points. That said, there is a lot of line value here being offered to a UT team that has only one loss by more than 15 points this season and that was back in November in their first loss of the season. Texas has been shooting the ball well in recent games and is 21-9 ATS on the road the past 3 seasons combined. Also, over the past three seasons the Horns are 4-1 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a 3-game ATS losing streak. As a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the Longhorns are 3-0 ATS the past 3 seasons. West Virginia is an ugly 2-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Each of the last 4 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less and the Mountaineers (after the multiple OT game) will have trouble getting a huge margin in this game. It will be a home win but I expect it to come by single digits. 8* TEXAS plus the big points |
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02-19-17 | Michigan +1.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #861 Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - Michigan is 3-6 on the road this season while Minnesota is 14-3 at home this season which explains why this is another contrarian play for me. As long-time followers know, I like to go "against the grain" more often than not and this is another one of those ideal situations to do it. Even though Minnesota has won 4 in a row, the wins came against teams that are a combined 18-39 in Big Ten action this season! Prior to that the Golden Gophers had lost 5 straight games. Minny has proven time and time again that they struggle to close out games against quality competition. The Golden Gophers comes into this game as one of the worst shooting teams in the Big Ten while the Wolverines are one of the top shooting teams in the conference. Michigan is off of a big win versus Wisconsin Thursday but I certainly don't expect a letdown here. Keep in mind the Wolverines recently got a win over in-state rival Michigan State and then there was no letdown as they won on the road at Indiana. Also, on deck for Michigan is a road game at Big Ten worst Rutgers so there is certainly no lookahead either. The Wolverines are shooting 48% from the field in Big Ten action and, on the season, Michigan has knocked down 38.4% of their three pointers. Defense has been the weakness of the Wolverines but, in this late season push, they've made a conscious effort to improve on that end of the floor and they've held 2 of their last 4 opponents under 40.5% from the field. Also, they've held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 21.1% or less from the field. Michigan is on a 6-2 ATS run and they've held the upper hand in recent meetings with the Golden Gophers. The Wolverines are 4-2 ATS this season when off of a Big 10 win. Minnesota is still just 16-36 SU in conference games the past 3 seasons combined. Look for their struggles in crunch time to continue again today as they do battle with a team they are knotted up with in the standings. The Golden Gophers have not handled pressure situations well this season. 10* MICHIGAN |
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02-19-17 | Maryland +7 v. Wisconsin | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #843 Sunday 8* Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Wisconsin Badgers @ 1 ET - The Terrapins are an insane 10-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Even if the Terps don't get the outright upset win here I do expect them to get the cash. Maryland is catching the Badgers at the right time as Wisconsin has been held under 40.8% from the field in 6 straight games! Not surprisingly, given those numbers, the Badgers are on a 1-5 ATS run their last 6 games. Also, Wiscy's most important player (Bronson Koenig) missed the game at Michigan Thursday with a calf injury. Koenig may return for this game Sunday but I don't expect him to be 100% effective. This further limits a Badgers offense that was already struggling. As for Maryland, they have been an ATS covering machine and are coming off of back to back games versus Ohio State and at Northwestern where they shot the ball very well both from inside the arc and from three point land. The Terrapins also have revenge from a 13 point home loss to the Badgers last February and the Terps did win in their most recent visit to Madison. Maryland has shown time and time again that they can "rise to the occasion" and they have been relishing the underdog role all season long. The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Look for Wisconsin to struggle just to win this game let alone cover it! 8* MARYLAND |
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02-18-17 | Wyoming +8.5 v. Boise State | Top | 87-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) @ Boise State Broncos @ 6 ET - This line has already moved from a +7.5 to a +8.5 and I understand the move as Boise State is off of a loss so many are expecting a bounce back here. However, the Broncos are now taking on a team they already beat this season and that was their 3rd straight victory over Wyoming. Coming off of a disappointing loss to a New Mexico team that is very close to them in the standings AND with a big game on deck at Nevada (another team close to Broncos in standings), Boise State is in a "sandwich spot" here. Off of a big game and with another big game on deck, the Broncos are likely to struggle to put away the Cowboys here. Boise State has been held under 42% from the field in 6 of its last 9 games. Their D has allowed 48% or more in each of their past two games. As for Wyoming, they've held 6 of their last 7 opponents under 42.5% from the field. Also, even on the road, the Cowboys have shot the ball well of late and have averaged 74.4 points per game in MWC road games! Wyoming simply doesn't give up and they'll battle hard here in hopes of getting revenge for a home loss to the Broncos last month. The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Wyoming is also 9-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Broncos are 0-3 ATS as a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points this season. Also, Boise State is 0-3 ATS this month and 0-5 ATS the L3 seasons combined when they are at home with a game total posted in a range of 150 o 154.5 points. That's a combined 0-11 ATS mark which I'll gladly test here as the Cowboys will prove to be the hungrier, more focused team in this match-up and they're catching a lot of points here. Only 3 times this entire season have the Cowboys lost a game by more than 10 points. They'll battle hard again here and I expect this one to be decided by only a single possession or two when the final horn has sounded. 10* WYOMING COWBOYS |
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02-18-17 | Florida v. Mississippi State +10.5 | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #540 Saturday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Florida Gators @ 2 ET - The Gators just lost 6'11 center John Egbunu to a season-ending knee injury. He was their leading rebounder, a top shot blocker, and their 5th leading scorer. Though the Gators are off of a blowout win at Auburn, they shot 56% from the field including a ridiculous 58% from three point land. Both those numbers are highly unlikely to be repeated here and I see great line value with the big home dog Bulldogs in this one. Keep in mind, Florida is in a lookahead spot here as they have South Carolina and Kentucky as their next two games on deck. It's simply impossible for the Gators to not get caught looking ahead to those match-ups. The Gamecocks present a revenge opportunity for Florida and, of course, a trip to Kentucky is always big. That makes Mississippi State a very dangerous big dog in this spot and the Bulldogs have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, MSU is on a 7-2 ATS run (and 17-7 ATS long-term) in home games with a posted total in a range of 145 to 149.5 points. Mississippi State is off of a loss and the Bulldogs have gone 5-2 ATS this season (and 20-9 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) when off of a loss in conference action. Florida had not shot the ball well in their two games prior to scoring a ridiculous 114 points at Auburn. Look for the Gators to struggle to put away the Bulldogs here in this definite lookahead spot for Florida. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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02-18-17 | Clemson +4 v. Miami (Fla) | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #503 Saturday 8* Clemson Tigers (+) @ Miami Hurricanes @ Noon ET - Miami has allowed 4 of its last 5 opponents to hit 48% or better from the field and 39% ore better from three point land. Clemson comes into this game having shot the three ball very well in recent games as the Tigers have knocked down 38% or better from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 6 games. Clemson will take advantage of the Hurricanes being without Ja'Quan Newton who is in the middle of a 3-game suspension. He leads the team in assists and is their 2nd leading scorer. The Canes were already thin in terms of backcourt depth so this is definitely a tough blow for Miami that the Tigers should be able to exploit here. The Hurricanes did get a win (but non-cover) versus Georgia Tech Wednesday in their first game without Newton but they shot a ridiculous 55% in that game. Not only is that unlikely to be repeated but a lot of times other players step up in the first game without a key player. The 2nd game is often when the absence becomes much more of a detriment to the team. Look for Miami to drop to 4-15 ATS as a favorite this season! 8* CLEMSON |
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02-16-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice -12.5 | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #730 Thursday 10* Top Play Rice Owls (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - This line has been dropping early this morning and it has opened up additional line value on Rice. The reason for the move is because the big points certainly caught the attention of the marketplace considering that UTSA has won 2 of their last 3 games and is on a 3-0-1 ATS run. However, the markets often have a short-term memory and UTSA was on a 4-game homestand that led to that run. This Roadrunners team is still 1-12 SU away from home this season and their 4 CUSA road losses have come by an average margin of 18.5 points per game. Every single CUSA road defeat for UTSA came by at least 15 points and the line on Rice has dropped from up near 15 down to near a 12 and this is simply great line value considering the fact that the Owls are rolling right now! Rice has won and covered 4 straight games and the last 3 have all been on the road! The Owls have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 40% or less from the field and UTSA is not known for shooting the ball well. In fact, the Roadrunners have been held under 40% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games. UTSA has averaged just 59 points per game in those 7 games and they now face an Owls team that has averaged 84 points per game (that does factor in removing OT from the equation) during their 4 game winning streak. The Owls are happy to be back home for a 4-game homestand that follows their perfect 3-game road trip and they only have UTEP on deck. That said, UTSA has their full attention and the Roadrunners just don't have the offensive skills to keep up with an Owls team that is averaging 82 points per game on the season. UTSA is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. Also, this season, the Roadrunners are 3-7 ATS on the road. The Owls are 3-0 SU and ATS when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Rice also has taken care of business against lesser foes this season as the Owls are 11-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against teams with a losing record! 10* RICE OWLS |
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02-16-17 | Wizards v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 111-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - Most likely, no one will want Indiana here. The Pacers are in a back to back while the Wizards have had two days off heading into this one. Indiana is on a 5-game losing streak while Washington has been one of the hottest teams in the league for many weeks now. Of course you know what usually happens when everyone is going one way...it usually doesn't pan out too well. In typical contrarian fashion I am going with the Pacers here. However, it is certainly not without reason. For one thing, the Pacers got very bad shooting nights from George and Teague last night at Cleveland. Even with that, Indiana was in that game for 3 quarters before having a horrible 4th quarter. Also, the hunger of the Pacers is a key here as the last thing they want to do is go into the All Star break having lost 6 straight! Conversely, though they would say otherwise, the Wizards can't help but already be looking ahead to the break. They are very comfortable with where they're at now and likely are already "halfway in" to All Star break mode coming into this one because this will be just the 2nd game for Washington in 6 days. In fact it was last Friday that the Wizards knocked off the Pacers in Washington. Look for some revenge to be served in Indiana tonight. The Pacers will prove to be the hungrier team tonight and, keep in mind, they are 20-9 at home this season while the Wizards are 9-14 on the road this season. 10* INDIANA PACERS |
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02-16-17 | UAB +3.5 v. Marshall | 59-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Thursday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - UAB has knocked off the Thundering Herd in 8 straight meetings overall and the Blazers haven't lost at Marshall since 2008 - a streak of 7 straight victories at Huntington. I like the set-up here for UAB to keep that run going. The Blazers are off of a home loss to Old Dominion where they allowed the Monarchs to hit an unheard of 66% from the field. UAB will respond after that horrific effort on the defensive end. In fact, the Blazers are a powerful 9-1 (90%) SU this season when they are off of a loss. Simply put, this UAB team has been able to avoid losing streaks. They face a Thundering Herd team that is off of a big road win at Western Kentucky. Not only is Marshall off of a big win, they also have a huge game on deck as they'll be hosting the top team in the conference, Middle Tennessee State, Saturday. The Thundering Herd had lost 5 of their 7 prior games before knocking off the Hilltoppers last Saturday. Marshall is one of the worst teams in the country defensively and are allowing an average of 84.7 points per game. The Blazers are certainly not defensive stalwarts but they are superior to the Thundering Herd and UAB had been playing quite well on the defensive end in recent weeks before the loss versus Old Dominion. The Blazers are 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more and also 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. 8* UAB BLAZERS |
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02-15-17 | St. John's +10.5 v. Butler | Top | 86-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #563 Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 8:30 ET - This is a big revenge game for Butler but not only have they lost 3 of their last 4 (both SU and ATS), the Bulldogs simply are not a powerhouse. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that this was a team that was 18-3 on the season before this tough stretch creeped up on them, but just look at their point differentials. Butler's last 7 wins have come by an average margin of just 5.9 points per game. Only 3 of the Bulldogs 15 wins (dates all the way back to Thanksgiving) have come by a margin of more than 10 points. That said, the Red Storm are a formidable opponent that is continuing to get stronger as this season has gone on as they do rely on some key freshmen scoring power. LoVett and Ponds are both freshman and are the leading scorers for St John's and combine to average 35 points per game! As you would expect, these young stars have grown their game as the season has gone on and this makes the Red Storm and even more "upset ready" team than they were earlier in the season. St John's comes into this game having covered 5 straight games. They have 4 SU wins in their last 7 games and this is even though tonight's game will mark their 7th straight game as a dog. With each win, the confidence of this young team is growing and head coach Chris Mullins has this team buying into playing better team defense. Their last 3 games have included a pair where the Red Storm allowed 40% or less from the field even though those match-ups were against the solid offenses of Seton Hall and Marquette. Butler has been held to 41.1% or less from the field in 4 of their last 6 games and that included a home game versus Creighton and the Bluejays are not nearly the same without their star point guard. That said, the Bulldogs will be battling hard just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. Butler is 0-3 ATS against teams with a losing record this season while the Red Storm are a solid 11-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. 10* ST JOHN'S RED STORM |
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02-15-17 | Bucks v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 129-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Wednesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - Classic case of an ugly dog here. Yes, the Nets have a long losing streak going, both overall and at home, but Brooklyn should take care of business here. 11 of the 13 losses in their current losing streak have come by single digits. The Nets have been on the cusp of getting over the hump and, going "all out" in their final game before the All Star break is a given here. Brooklyn wants to put an end to the "nonsense" and they are catching the right team at the right time to do it! The Bucks come into this game off of a divisional win over Detroit. Surprisingly, Milwaukee held the Pistons to only 89 points but that was the first time since January 2nd that the Bucks have held a team under 100 points. Also, you have to go all the way back to December 16th to find a game where Milwaukee gave up less than 94 points. As you can see, Monday's win over Detroit was a rare gem for the Bucks and this is a team that is 1-10 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Also, Milwaukee is an ugly 4-8 SU (and 3-9 ATS!) in road games where the posted total is 210 points or more. The Nets are undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the NBA and I won't try to convince you otherwise. But the fact remains that Brooklyn has been going very hard for weeks now and just hasn't been able to get into the win column. After so many close calls, they catch a Bucks team that is overconfident off of back to back divisional wins (big win at Indiana before knocking off Detroit) and that sets this up as a "dangerous game" for Milwaukee. The Bucks had lost 7 straight road games before notching wins at Phoenix and Indiana. Look for the upset here with a gritty, determined effort from the home dog here but grab the available points. 10* BROOKLYN NETS |
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02-15-17 | Pacers +6 v. Cavs | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Wednesday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - I successfully used the Cavaliers last night but the Cavs did struggle to put the Timberwolves away in Minnesota. Cleveland had to give their key guys more minutes than they would have liked to in last night's game and now they'll have their hands full in a tough back to back. In fact, this one does has the makings of an upset as Cleveland is only 3-7 SU (and 2-8 ATS) in the 2nd game of a back to back on the season. While the Cavaliers were battling with the T-wolves last night at Minny, the Pacers were off and were able to fully prepare physically and mentally for this divisional battle. Even though Indiana has lost four straight games, this was preceded by a 7 game winning streak. Also, 2 of the 4 defeats have come by 5 points or less and the Pacers have faced some tough competition during this streak. In fact the 4-game losing streak started with an ugly home loss to the Cavs 132-117 last Wednesday. The Pacers will be seeking payback tonight and Indiana has gone 27-15 ATS versus divisional opponents the past 3 seasons. Also, Indiana is 3-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Cavaliers are an ugly 18-33 ATS versus divisional opponents the past 3 seasons. Even though the Pacers are still without Thaddeus Young, the Cavs are missing Kevin Love and the big man is particularly missed in a back to back situation like this where a divisional road dog is coming in very hungry and plus has the rest edge. 8* INDIANA PACERS |
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02-15-17 | Xavier v. Providence -3 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #530 Wednesday 8* Providence Friars (-) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - The Musketeers absolutely crushed the Friars at Xavier in late December. That said, surely it may seem a surprise to see Providence now laying points in the rematch. However, the situation here is absolutely ideal for the Friars to get their revenge. Xavier's leading scorer in the 82-56 win in late December was Trevon Bluiett and he's dealing with an ankle sprain that absolutely could keep him out of tonight's game or, at the very least, severely impact his effectiveness. The Musketeers second leading scorer that night was Edmond Sumner and he was lost for the season with a knee injury in January. That said, Xavier only has 3 guys that average more than 7.7 points per game this season and two of them are Sumner and Bluiett! This is a tough part of the schedule for the Musketeers as they have road games at Marquette and Seton Hall on deck plus a home date with 19-6 Butler after that. With that said, look for Xavier to be very careful with Bluiett in this one. The Musketeers are only 2-6 ATS on the road this season while the Friars are a fantastic 5-1 ATS this season (and 14-2 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) when playing with road loss revenge! Providence comes into this game having covered 7 of its last 8 games against teams with a winning record and I look for the Friars to definitely "step up" again here as they don't play again for a week after this game. Off the win over Butler, look for the avenging home team to stay hot here and make it 8 out of 9 covers! 8* PROVIDENCE FRIARS |
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02-14-17 | Cavs -4 v. Wolves | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Cavs come into this game with 2 days of rest as they last played on Saturday when they knocked off the Nuggets at home. Even though this is the 1st game of a back to back (Cavaliers host Indiana tomorrow), there is no doubt the Cavs will go all out here. That's because the All Star break looms and Cleveland knows they'll have plenty of time to rest up then. Certainly Minnesota will be up for this game as they host the world champs but the Timberwolves have been swept by the Cavaliers each of the prior two seasons and the T-wolves already lost at Cleveland earlier this month. The Cavs, just as they are tonight, played without Kevin Love but they still won by 28. Cleveland may again be catching the Timberwolves at the right time for another big win as Minnesota is off of a blowout win over Chicago Sunday. Minny beat the Bulls 117-89 but the Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS this season (and 5-17 ATS the last 3 seasons combined) when they are off of a win by a double digit margin! Even though Minnesota has now won 2 of its last 3, the three games were against a struggling Toronto team, the 21-34 Pelicans, and an injury-depleted Bulls team. That is significant here because, prior to winning 2 of 3, the Timberwolves had lost 4 straight games SU and were on a 1-8 ATS run. In other words, don't be surprised if the T-wolves get drilled again as they take a big step up in level of opponent for this one. Cleveland has won 7 of its last 9 SU and is also on a 6-2 ATS run its last 8. The Cavaliers are 10-2 SU (and 8-4 ATS) when playing with 2 days of rest this season and, with rested legs, the Cavs roll in this one as the absence of point guard Zach LaVine (out for season now with torn ACL) is significant in a match-up like this. 8* CLEVELAND CAVALIERS |
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02-14-17 | Tennessee +14 v. Kentucky | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is a big revenge game for the Wildcats but they are over-priced here. This is especially true when you consider how Kentucky has been playing and the fact that Tennessee has won 2 of the last 3 meetings and none of the 3 games were decided by more than 10 points. Kentucky is only 3-3 in their last 6 games and none of the 3 Wildcat wins were by more than 9 points. Kentucky has had trouble with holding big leads and, that said, even if the Cats are fortunate enough to get up big in this game they are unlikely to be able to maintain the lead. The Volunteers have also had trouble with holding big leads in recent games but of course they are a double digit dog here so that is less of a concern as is simply being competitive. That said, after Tennessee blew a big lead and lost to Georgia by a single point Saturday, there is no doubt about the hunger they will bring to this game. A key for the Vols in terms of the big points here is the fact that they have not lost a game by more than 13 points this entire season! Head coach Rick Barnes is really getting the best out of his players and this is not a team that is going to lay down for anyone. In other words, look for the Vols to be fighting hard throughout this game no matter what the score is. That certainly makes for a dangerous double digit dog. The Volunteers had covered 5 of their last 6 before the loss to the Bulldogs. The Wildcats, even with a rare cover in their win at Alabama Saturday, are on an ugly 2-8 ATS run. Even though Kentucky is playing this game with road loss revenge for the loss at Tennessee last month, the fact is that the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS this season when looking to avenge a road defeat. The Vols are a solid 8-3 ATS as an underdog this season and I look for another solid cover here. 10* Top Play TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS |
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02-14-17 | St. Joe's v. VCU -16 | 81-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #708 Tuesday 8* Virginia Commonwealth Rams (-) vs St Josephs Hawks @ 6 ET - Long-time followers know I don't often play big favorites but this is one of those unusual cases where an extreme slaughter should take place. St Josephs has had the misfortune of losing both of their point guards for the season as Shavar Newkirk and Lamarr Kimble are now both on the shelf. This is horrible news for the Hawks in and of itself but, in terms of this particular match-up, it should lead to an absolute rout. One of the last place a team ever wants to travel to without a point guard (let alone TWO!) is Virginia Commonwealth. The Rams are known for creating turnovers and putting a lot of pressure on opponents backcourts. St Joe's is extremely limited now in their backcourt. Not only were Newkirk and Kimble playmakers, they were their top two scorers. This severely limits a St Josephs team that was already struggling badly. It's been a disappointing season for the Hawks and now has gotten even worse. St Joe's has lost 4 straight and 8 of its last 10. Now, the final (and perhaps) most important key when laying big points (at least in my opinion) is motivation. That said, VCU is NOT going to take their foot off the gas in this game. That's because last spring the Rams were bounced from the Atlantic Ten tourney by these Hawks. Virginia Commonwealth lost by double digits even though they were a 4-point fave. This is their first meeting since that game and it will be payback. VCU has won 6 straight games and is 20-5 on the season. The Rams are 6-0 at home in A-10 action and the average margin of victory has been 18.5 points per game. Keep in mind this included wins over quality opponents like Dayton and Richmond too. That said, the Hawks really don't stand a chance here. 8* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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02-13-17 | West Virginia +5 v. Kansas | Top | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #539 Monday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 9 ET - First lines that came out on this game yesterday had it at a -2.5 and sure enough the markets got "baited" and jumped all over the revenge-seeking Jayhawks at home and drove the line all the way up to a -5. I'll gladly take advantage of the value on the other side. Even though Kansas is at home and playing with revenge they certainly have some "issues" right now. First off the Jayhawks just aren't playing all that well as, even though they are 4-2 in their last 6 games, the 4 wins have come by an average margin of only 3.75 points while the losses included a 16-point blowout defeat at West Virginia. Perhaps the even bigger issue for Kansas here is the fact that, even though each team is in the same scheduling situation (one day of rest) the short amount of time off is likely to be more impacting to the Jayhawks. Their star player, Frank Mason is dealing with an illness and that was evident on Saturday as he struggled in the game and eventually fouled out. Against the relentless pressure defense of the Mountaineers, Kansas will find knocking off West Virginia much tougher than the Red Raiders. The Jayhawks only beat Texas Tech by a single point and have now failed to cover 12 of their last 17. Kansas has a great SU record at home but note that they are just 2-8 ATS at home this season! The Mountaineers only have 5 losses on the season and 4 of the 5 came by 4 points or less. This is likely to be war because even though the Jayhawks have revenge, the Mountaineers also are sick of looking up in the standings at Kansas and West Virginia also was knocked out of the Big 12 conference tourney by the Jayhawks last spring. Look for the Mountaineers pressure defense and the fact that Mason is not 100% to be the two key factors for a potential upset here. If West Virginia does fall short of the upset, I expect it to only be by a single bucket. A lot of points expected here and the Mountaineers are an incredible 27-12 ATS long-term in games with a posted total in the 150s. 10* Top Play WEST VIRGINIA |
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02-13-17 | Pistons +3 v. Bucks | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Many will likely be looking to Milwaukee today after the Pistons rallied late and got the upset win at Toronto yesterday. However, this is not a "normal" in-season situation here. The All Star break begins later this week and so players aren't "holding anything back" and, right now, Detroit has been playing much better ball than Milwaukee. Not only that, the Pistons suffered one of their worst home defeats of the season in late December when the Bucks defeated them by 25 points. The Pistons haven't forgotten that game as, of course, Milwaukee is a division rival. Now Detroit gets their shot at revenge and, even though it is a back to back, only one guy played more than 32 minutes for the Pistons yesterday. Also, Milwaukee is off of a big upset win too as they won at Indiana on Saturday. One of the key differences though is the Bucks recent wins have been "fortunate" ones where they simply shot the ball extremely well. Milwaukee's win over the Pacers saw them knock down 54.8% of their three pointers and that was just the 3rd win for the Bucks in their last 15 games. Conversely, Detroit was held to 43% from the field and 26% from three point land and yet still won at Toronto yesterday. The Pistons are winning the "hustle points" and are playing much better team basketball than the Bucks right now. Detroit is on a 6-2 ATS run and are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Conversely, Milwaukee is an ugly 1-5 ATS and SU in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. This is a classic case of "hot versus not" and "hungry versus complacent" and, even though it is a back to back for Detroit, they did play early yesterday and each of these teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Advantage to the road dog Pistons and I expect them to get their revenge here against the struggling Bucks. Talking about the "stronger level of play" angle above. The Bucks have been outshot by 40 shots over their last 8 games. The Pistons have outshot their opponents by 44 shots in their last 4 games. The road team is clearly getting more scoring opportunities while also allowing less. More of the same here. 10* DETROIT PISTONS |
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02-12-17 | Pelicans v. Kings -3 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #838 Sunday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings (-) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:05 ET - The Pelicans have the full attention of the Kings because New Orleans has given them trouble in recent meetings. Sacramento finally ended a Pelicans "run" in this series with a home win over New Orleans in their most recent meeting in November. The Kings won that game by 8 and, with this being Sacramento's last home game until after the All Star break, I fully expect huge effort from them here. Though both teams have played rather well their last couple games, I like the fact that the Kings have averaged 10 more field goal attempts per game than their opponent in their last 2 games. The Pelicans have been at the other end of the spectrum on that stat as they have given up an average of 9 more field goal attempts per game than what they've taken. Of course limiting the number of opportunities for your opponent while also maximizing your own is a key to success and the Kings come in strong and have won 3 of their last 4 games. Not only does Sacramento have the back to back wins, they also have had a win over Golden State in this four game stretch. The Pelicans, prior to their road win at Minnesota, had lost 5 straight road games. Overall, New Orleans had failed to cover 4 straight games before the win over the Timberwolves. Sacramento is 20-8 ATS long-term in their home games against New Orleans and the Kings have shot at least 47.5% from the field in 7 of their last 9 games. The Pelicans, before erupting at Minnesota, had been held under 46% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games. 10* Top Play SACRAMENTO KINGS minus the short number Sunday night |
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02-12-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -10 | Top | 66-59 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #856 Sunday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - At first glance this line may appear a little high considering the fact that the Badgers have not been shooting well recently, the Wildcats are 18-6 on the season, and Wisconsin is laying double digits here. However, there are some key factors that are pointing to an absolute rout here. First off, Northwestern's leading scorer Scottie Lindsey is out for this game (mononucleosis) and this will be the 3rd straight game he's missed. Not only did the Wildcats lose their first two games without him, the results weren't even closed. They lost by 21 at Purdue as a 9.5 point dog and they lost to Illinois by 7 as a 6 point favorite. More struggles for the Cats can be expected today as the Badgers are happy to finally be back home. This is just their 2nd home game since January 24th so, over a span of 3 weeks Wisconsin has been away from home for nearly every game. They'll be fired up to make the most of this game at home and, keep in mind, much of their recent shooting woes can be attributed to being away from Madison. At home this season the Badgers are averaging 79 points per game this season and shooting 48% from the field including 38% from beyond the arc! Northwestern has struggled on both ends of the floor in these last two games without Lindsey and a trip to Madison isn't going to help matters for the Wildcats. The Badgers are 7-3 ATS at home this season and the Wildcats run at the betting windows is likely over. They were on a 15-3 ATS run before Lindsey went down. Look for them to now drop to 0-3 ATS without him. 10* WISCONSIN BADGERS minus the points Sunday evening |
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02-12-17 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Wild | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Game #53 Sunday 8* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line +1.5 goals (-) @ Minnesota Wild @ 3:05 ET - The Red Wings are desperate for points and they'll go all out in this game. A lot turmoil around Detroit lately but, even though they have lost 3 straight and 8 of their last 13 only 2 of the 13 games has resulted in the Red Wings losing a game by more than a goal. Considering those odds (11 of 13) and knowing that we only have to lay about -135 to get Detroit +1.5 goals, there is great line value here with the Red Wings on the puck line. I also like the added edge here of Red Wings assistant coach John Torchetti making his first trip back to Minnesota since the Wild let him go to hire Bruce Boudreau as their head coach. Torchetti actually did a great job with the Wild as an interim coach and likely would have gotten an offer to become the permanent head coach had Boudreau not been fired by the Ducks. The point is that the Red Wings players (and coaching staff) have some extra fire burning in their bellies as it relates to this game. Look for a huge effort from Detroit who, because of injuries and other factors, has their backs against the wall right now. The Wild are off of a home win but surprisingly had won only 4 of their 8 prior home games before knocking off the Lightning 2-1 in the shootout Friday. The Red Wings are actually 4-3, +3.6 net units when playing the 2nd game of a back to back this season and here are getting them at +1.5 goals at a great price. The Wild have lost 15 of 27 home games and -10.6 net units in match-ups with a posted total of 5.5 goals. This situation definitely has the makings of an upset but, should the Red Wings fall short, I expect it to only be by a single goal. 8* DETROIT RED WINGS puck line +1.5 goals Sunday afternoon. |
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02-12-17 | Temple +6.5 v. Memphis | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #843 Sunday 8* Temple Owls (+) @ Memphis Tigers @ 2 ET - The Owls are known for giving the Tigers a lot of match-up problems. Temple has gone 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) in the last 5 meetings between the teams but this line has already climbed from 5.5 to 6.5 on this game. Of course with Memphis having revenge on their minds (lost at Temple in January) and now on their home floor, it makes sense that they are a popular choice here due to the smallish number posted on this game. Don't be fooled by the line though. The reason it is smaller than many would expect is because the Owls go into Memphis with plenty of confidence as they have enjoyed success here and the most recent loss here came by only two points. The Tigers are off of a home win and cover versus Tulsa but previously had covered just once in their 8 games prior to knocking off the Golden Hurricane. The Owls are off of a rare ugly performance as they were simply awful versus SMU Thursday and will be hungry to bounce back here. When Temple enters a game having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, they've gone 7-1 SU! The Tigers are 9-17 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival. The set up here is perfect for the Owls to be in this one all the way! 8* TEMPLE OWLS plus the points early Sunday afternoon |
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02-11-17 | Bucks +7 v. Pacers | Top | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian pick all the way. The fact is that the Bucks have been struggling badly and Jabari Parker was just lost for the season and, even though Khris Middleton finally played in last night's game, he did not travel with the team to Indiana. All that said, this line opened up at "only" a 6 and that is a strange line considering the Pacers have the much better record and also are at home. Considering the home/road dichotomy of the way these two teams play home versus away you can see why the betting markets already pushed this to the 7 in early action. Nothing is ever as "easy" as it seems and my expectation is that this game tonight is absolutely going to turn into a divisional dogfight. Milwaukee simply got done in last night by the Lakers hitting a ridiculous 15 of 30 three pointers. The Bucks got down early and then rallied late but they'll be ready to bounce back after being outscored by 21 points from three point land (Lakers hit 7 more threes than Milwaukee) last night. Even though this is a back to back for the Bucks, it is also a back to back for the Pacers and they are the ones laying 7 points here even though they are 3-7 SU (and 2-8 ATS) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back! Even though this is part of 3 games in 4 days for the Bucks they previously had 3 full off days. As for the Pacers, they are playing their 6th game in 9 nights. Look for the Pacers to be a little weary in this one and they're missing Thaddeus Young (wrist) and have been playing a little soft in the middle. The Bucks are 6-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season and they'll push Indiana to the limit in this one. The Pacers are only 2-2 in the last 4 meetings between these clubs and the two Indiana victories each came by only 5 points. 10* Top Play MILWAUKEE BUCKS plus the points Saturday evening |
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02-11-17 | Green Bay v. Wright State -3 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Saturday 10* Top Play Wright State Raiders (-) vs Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 7 ET - Wright State is at home where they are 10-3 on the season and they are hosting a Wisconsin-Green Bay team that is only 6-8 away from home this season. The Raiders come into this game off having shot the ball very well in 6 of their last 7 games. Wright State averaged 84.5 points per game in those 6 games and they now face a Phoenix team that rallied for a road cover at Northern Kentucky Thursday. The fact that UWGB got in the backdoor for the cover there is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. Don't be surprised if 3 point shooting plays a role in this one. UWGB has only made 30% of their threes on the road this season while Wright State shoots a hot 40% at home from beyond the arc. The biggest key of all to this play is the revenge factor. Not only did the Raiders lose at Green Bay in January, they also were knocked out of the Horizon League tourney by the Phoenix last March. UWGB shot surprisingly well from three point land in their home win over the Raiders in January and in the Horizon League tourney last March. However, in their last two visits to Wright State UWGB has been held to 25% or less from three point land in each game. Green Bay lost their most recent visit to Wright State and the Raiders have payback on their minds in a big way here. The Raiders are 7-3 SU and ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s this season. They are also 2-0 SU this season when playing with road loss revenge. UWGB has suffered the SU loss in 21 of their last 32 games as an underdog. That said, and with this spread only around a 3, I like the odds of the Raiders getting a solid, revenging home cover in this one. 10* Top Play WRIGHT STATE minus the short number Saturday evening |
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02-11-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Hornets | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 8* Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 5:05 ET - The Clippers are a small road dog here. Of course the only reason they're a dog is that Chris Paul is injured. These are the types of situations that lead to phenomenal line value as the Hornets are struggling badly but they are laying points against a solid Clippers team that, even though without Paul, has seen Blake Griffin really step up his game of late. Though LA still has only 2 wins in its last 5 games the 3 losses did come against solid playoff-level foes. When the Clippers have faced weaker foes (like Phoenix and New York), they have taken care of business. Just like the dysfunctional Knicks that they defeated Wednesday, this Charlotte team is having all sorts of issues. Kemba Walker is struggling badly with his shot and he had 6 of the Hornets 22 turnovers in the loss to the Rockets Thursday. The Hornets have only 1 win in their last 9 games and they've been held to 44.4% or less from the field in 8 of those 9 games. Conversely, the Clippers have shot 46.5% or better in 7 of their 10 games since Chris Paul got hurt! With the Hornets slumping and the Clippers looking poised to take advantage of another "lesser" opponent, this game is offering solid line value. Charlotte is 5-13 SU (and 3-14-1 ATS) in games with posted total of 210 points or more this season. You can see, with the big total posted on this game, that plenty of points are expected here and you can also see (from the info I noted above) that it is the Clips who have had the better offensive execution (even without Paul) and that has me backing the road dog in a big way here. The Clips are 5-1 SU this season (and 20-6 SU the L3 seasons!) in their games against Southeast Division opponents. 8* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS plus the points in Saturday's earliest game in NBA action. |
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02-11-17 | Louisiana Tech -7.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
CUSA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #585 Saturday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 4 ET - This one is set up perfectly. This is a huge revenge game for the Bulldogs as they suffered a rare home loss to UTSA last month. In that game they blew a huge lead. Louisiana Tech also comes into this one off of a game where they blew a big lead in a tight one-point win at UTEP Thursday. The Roadrunners are at the other end of the spectrum as they rallied from a 2nd half deficit to get a 6-point win versus Southern Mississippi Thursday. The Golden Eagles are one of the worst teams in CUSA but, the point is, even they "had them on the ropes" before ultimately falling short on Thursday. The other point is that there is some extra line value here as a result of those recent games. The fact is that, even on the road, the Bulldogs could have easily been installed as a double digit favorite and yet the line opened up at 8.5 and then dropped to 7.5 which is something I'll gladly take advantage of here. Louisiana Tech is fired up and they are hungry for revenge and the Bulldogs defense will bring it's "A game" for this one. That's bad news for a Roadrunners team that generally does not execute well on offense and that was evident again Thursday in UTSA's ugly tight win over Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech is 11-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) in their games against teams with a losing record and each of their 4 prior wins over UTSA had come by a double digit margin. The Bulldogs are knocking down 46.7% of their field goal attempts this season. UTSA is shooting only 38.2% and averaging just 63 points per game in conference action. The Roadrunners have been held to 39.3% or less from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. Though they got a tight, low-scoring win Thursday, they are 2-11 SU and 2-8 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. That includes 0-4 ATS this season and this one turns into a road rout for the revenge-minded Bulldogs. 10* Top Play LOUISIANA TECH minus the points Saturday afternoon |
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02-11-17 | Clemson +12 v. Duke | 62-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #539 Saturday 8* Clemson Tigers (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 1 ET Saturday - The Tigers are catching the Blue Devils at the perfect time to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. Duke is off of their huge win over rival North Carolina and that game was just played on Thursday. Not only that but the Blue Devils have a tough match-up with Virginia on deck. That said, it is hard for Duke's full attention to be on the Tigers here and I feel this line is definitely inflated. Looking at the Blue Devils last 9 games, they do not have a single win that came by a margin great than a dozen points. In fact, since mid-December, Duke has played 13 games and only 1 resulted in a victory by more than 12 points. As for Clemson, they started their season 9-2 with both the losses by just a half-dozen points. Since then there has been quite a bit of losing for the Tigers but note that 7 of their 10 losses on the season have come by a margin of 6 points or less. Clemson is also the more rested team for this match-up as they have been off since Tuesday. That was a tight 82-81 loss for Clemson but the Tigers are 9-3 SU and 6-4 ATS when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Duke is only 7-12 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season but the Blue Devils continue to be over-rated by the marketplace. That means more line value for us! 8* CLEMSON TIGERS plus the big points early Saturday |
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02-10-17 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 131-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Denver is 9-17 SU on the road this season and yet the Knicks are a very small home favorite here. Looks easy to play New York, right? Exactly! That is why I am on the Nuggets here in typical contrarian fashion. The key here is that the Knicks are just a huge mess right now. The Charles Oakley situation (in the stands) just adds even more fuel to the fire and the fact is that the Knicks truly would be better off on the road right now than playing again at home where turmoil has gripped this team. New York comes into this one having lost 3 straight games and they are now 6-19 dating back to Christmas Day! Even though the Nuggets are off of a loss they had previously won 9 of their last 14 games and gone 10-4 ATS at the betting window during this solid stretch. Though their road record looks poor they have been playing quite well on the road. The trouble has been that recent games have included a pair of trips to San Antonio and a trip to Atlanta. Only 3-5 SU in their last 8 games played away from Denver but note that the 3 of the 5 losses came by 6 points or less and the Nuggets will take advantage of facing a struggling Knicks team in this one. Denver has won each of its last 3 meetings with the Knicks and that includes their last visit to New York. Also, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU and ATS (including 3-1 SU and ATS this season) when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. The Knicks are 3-0 to the over in their L3 games because their defense has given up 117 points per game! We're not playing the over here as you can but the significance in that is that New York is 5-12 SU and ATS the L3 seasons when they enter a game on an "over streak" of 3 games or more. The lackluster play on that end of the floor will again cause the demise of the Knicks tonight and I expect the road dog to get the upset win. 10* DENVER NUGGETS plus the points Friday |
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02-09-17 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +8.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Thursday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 9 ET - Looking at the rest of their regular season schedule, this is clearly the Cornhuskers "game of the year" and they've been known to rise up against quality competition. With this line moving all the way up to an 8.5 as of mid-morning on gameday we are capturing excellent line value here with a dangerous home dog. Nebraska is 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been a dog of 7 points or more. The last 5 times they were a dog of 7 points or more they have recorded the outright win 3 times! The Cornhuskers remaining home games don't include a single Big Ten team that currently has a wining record in conference action. In other words, this is indeed "the game" for Nebraska and they could be catching Wisconsin at the ideal time for an upset. The Badgers are off of a big home win versus Indiana and they have a tough home game with Northwestern on deck. This one game road "trip" is truly a dangerous spot in their schedule and the Badgers last 3 games featured two teams (Indiana and Illinois) certainly not known for their defense and another team (Rutgers) that is just a bad basketball team. With that said, the fact that Wiscy was held under 40.8% from the field in all 3 games and also shot horribly from three point land during this three-game stretch is a legitimate cause for concern. The way I see it, Wiscy is going to have to scratch and claw for a hard-fought victory here and they may not even escape with that. In a situation that has "upset" written all over it (keep in mind Huskers already upset Purdue, Maryland, and upset Hoosiers at Indiana) there is tremendous line value with the big points here. Look for the Cornhuskers to improve to 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they've been a dog of 7 points or more. 10* NEBRASKA plus the points Thursday night |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +3.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:35 ET - The Jazz are off of a huge win last night at New Orleans. That makes this a tough back to back spot for Utah and the Jazz are on a 1-6 ATS run in the 2nd night of back to backs. They face a Dallas team that has been playing much better of late and was off last night. The scheduling and situational edge is big here for the Mavericks who are on an 11-3 ATS run. The Mavs are playing this game with home loss revenge and Dallas has gone a fantastic 8-2 ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. Look for the Mavericks to tighten things up defensively after allowing 114 to the Trail Blazers in a one point loss Tuesday. The Mavs are 12-6 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. After this game against a Western Conference foe, the Mavericks won't face another team from their conference for two weeks. Couple that with the home loss revenge factor as well as the back to back spot for Utah and you have the perfect situational advantages that dictate playing on the Mavericks in this one. They are off of back to back losses and haven't lost three straight since early January. Look for the Mavs to get back on track with a W here. 10* DALLAS MAVERICKS plus the points Thursday night |
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02-09-17 | Southern Miss +6 v. Texas-San Antonio | 51-57 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Hidden Gem - Rickenbach CBB Game #739 Thursday 8* Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - Make no mistake about it the Golden Eagles are not a very good basketball team. However, UTSA truly isn't much better and, from a situational standpoint, the Roadrunners are due for a major letdown here. The Runners just played one of their best games of the season in a home win over UAB on Saturday. It was an aberration. UTSA shot lights out after having been held to an average of about 35% from the field in their five prior games. This team just doesn't have much offense and, after a fluke game, look for them to quickly come back down to earth. In fact, the Roadrunners straight-up record is 1-14 the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Prior to the win over the Blazers the Runners last 6 wins had featured 5 victories by 6 points or less. In other words, the fact that UTSA is laying about a half dozen points here is certainly not insignificant. The Golden Eagles already crushed the Roadrunners at Southern Miss in early January by 18 points. UTSA is 3-8 ATS as a favorite the past 3 seasons. The Golden Eagles certainly have some ugly SU records in recent seasons but they are 20-11 ATS when off of a loss in CUSA action. That said, I love grabbing the big points here with the Eagles off of a home loss and the Roadrunners off of a big upset win. 8* SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES plus the points Thursday evening |
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02-08-17 | Iowa v. Minnesota -6.5 | Top | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #562 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (-) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 9 ET - Good spot for Minnesota here. The Golden Gophers have gone through a tough stretch but 4 of their 6 games were on the road. They did get back on track with a solid road win at Illinois Saturday and that was a big confidence booster for Minnesota. They had suffered a number of tight recent losses with their last 4 defeats coming by an average of 4 points per game. Now they are off of a win, back at home, and hosting an Iowa team that just isn't what it use to be and yet the Golden Gophers are currently looking up in the standings at the Hawkeyes. Minnesota's defense got back on track against the Illini and they'll be fired up about turning up the pressure on their home court to make up for a tight loss to Maryland in their most recent home game. Keep in mind the Golden Gophers two most recent home games were against a ranked Terrapins team and a ranked Wisconsin team. Prior to losing those 2 home games Minnesota was 12-1 at home with their only loss coming in overtime versus Michigan State. The Gophers will now take advantage of facing a lesser foe (in comparison with Badgers and Terps) and I look for them to get a big home win here. Iowa is off of a home win against Nebraska but the Hawkeyes are 2-7 away from home this season. Though they did win their most recent road game that was against a bad Rutgers team. The Hawkeyes lost each of their four prior road games in Big Ten action and the defeats came by an average margin of 18 points per loss! Before the win over a bad Scarlet Knights team, Iowa was winless both SU and ATS in true road games this season! The Golden Gophers last 8 wins have featured 7 victories by 7 points or more and this one is well within being a manageable number to lay with the hungry home team seeking revenge for a tight road loss at Iowa last season. 10* MINNESOTA |
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02-08-17 | Jazz -4 v. Pelicans | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Conference Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Wednesday 8* Utah Jazz (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Utah has won 10 of its last 13 games including 3 straight. Most impressive about the current 3-game run is the fact that the Jazz have won the games by an average margin of 16 points per game. Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league and they'll now take advantage of facing a team that has definitely been heading the wrong direction when it comes to level of play on the defensive end. The Pelicans have allowed an average of 114 points per game in their last 9 games. New Orleans is hosting a Jazz team that is allowing only 95.4 points per game on the season! Utah also has a great rest edge here as they are playing only their 4th game in the last 11 days! Conversely, the Pelicans are playing their 6th game in the past 11 days. New Orleans is 2-5 SU and ATS against Northwest Division foes this season. The Jazz are 24-5 SU against teams with a losing record this season. That said, with this line only a couple buckets, I'll gladly take the "risk" of laying the short number here because the Jazz are also 10-1 SU (and 7-4 ATS) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points the past 3 seasons combined. 8* UTAH JAZZ |
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02-08-17 | Raptors v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #518 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is the classic case of the ugly home dog. Few will want Minnesota here as they recently lost PG Zach LaVine to season-ending injury and the Timberwolves come into this game having lost 4 straight. However, Minny is fired up for responding here after their defense let them down in their most recent game, a tight home loss to a red hot Miami team. The T-wolves caught an earful from their head coach about playing well on BOTH ends of the floor just one and Minnesota will be ready to go here. Keep in mind, the Timberwolves had held 3 of their 4 prior opponents under 45% from the field. Even though Toronto enters this game off of back to back wins, they faced a Clippers team struggling without Chris Paul and they faced the Nets (one of the worst teams in the league). Prior to those wins the Raptors had lost 8 of its last 10 and they're still trying to "work out the kinks" as they welcome back players who had missed some time due to injury. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and Toronto is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and each game has been in a different city. Against teams with a losing record the Raptors have failed to cover 4 of its last 6. The Timberwolves, seeking revenge for a loss at Toronto in December, are 7-4 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 or more. Also, when Minny enters a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses, they are 7-2 ATS this season. Being a contrarian generally pays off well and I love fading the line move in this particular situation that favors the home dog! 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES |
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02-08-17 | Ole Miss v. Tennessee -5 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #528 Wednesday 8* Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 6:30 ET - This line has gone from a -7 to a -5 and is offering exceptional line value on Tennessee at home. The Volunteers are off of a road loss at Mississippi State but they had previously won and covered 4 straight games. Even in the loss to the Bulldogs the Vols played great defense and they have held 4 straight opponents to 41.7% or less from the field. The set up is nice as the Volunteers are catching the Rebels off of a road win at Vanderbilt. Though that makes it back to back wins for Ole Miss, lets not forget that they have not managed to win three straight games since prior to Christmas. It is unlikely that the Rebels change that here as they'll face a fired up Tennessee team off of a loss and Ole Miss had lost 6 of 9 before winning their past two games. The fact that one of those 3 Rebels wins came over the Vols just adds to the revenge factor here for Tennessee as the Volunteers also suffered an embarrassing home loss to Ole Miss last season. That doesn't happen often and that 23 point home loss in early March last season is the type of defeat any team would be hungry to avenge. The Vols, with the way they had been playing prior to the loss at Mississippi State Saturday, are in the perfect spot for a big bounce back here. I am looking for the Volunteers to improve to 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they are off of a game where they scored 69 points or less. They've covered 4 straight in that situation dating back to the latter half of November. At the same time, look for Ole Miss to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS this season in Wednesday games. 8* TENNESSEE |
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02-07-17 | Western Michigan -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 72-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - I lost with the Broncos on Friday and had my eyes on this match-up as the perfect spot to get some payback with Western Michigan. Keep in mind the Broncos played very well at Central Michigan Friday but then gave up a huge game-ending run to the Chippewas and lost the game by 4 as a 3.5 point dog. This was certainly a tough beat for the Broncos (and for me) but they've now had 3 full days since then to get fired up for a shot at redemption. Keep in mind this is a Western Michigan team that is still winless (0-9 SU) on the road this season! That said, one need not be concerned that there is anything wrong with this line. The Broncos are favored for a number of reasons. They are fired up after the way they lost at Central Michigan. They are ready to exact revenge against a Miami-Ohio team that beat them last year at Western Michigan in an ugly 45-44 game. The Broncos did defeat the Redhawks by a double digit margin in their most recent visit here. Miami-Ohio has faced a weaker schedule in comparison with the Broncos and yet the Redhawks are on an ugly 1-8 SU run. In home games the Redhawks have been held under 38% in each of their past two games and they averaged just 59.5 points in those two games and these were at home! The Broncos come in having shot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 road games. Western Michigan's last two road games this season are at Toledo and Northern Illinois and, though they certainly are not looking ahead you can bet they are fully aware that this game at Miami-Ohio represents their best shot at notching a road victory. No team wants to go 0-fer on the road for an entire season and the Broncos last 5 road losses have seen 4 come by a margin of 7 points or less. As they proved at Central Michigan, Western Michigan is on the cusp of getting that elusive road win and this is the perfect spot to do just that. I'll gladly lay the small number with a hungry road team that is ready to blast a struggling opponent. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN minus the short number early Tuesday evening |
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02-06-17 | Kansas -3 v. Kansas State | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Monday 8* Kansas Jayhawks (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 9 ET - Off of a home loss in OT versus Iowa State, look for Kansas to respond in a huge way. Home losses are particularly rare for the Jayhawks under head coach Bill Self and Kansas has a history of responding when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. In fact, the past three seasons combined the Jayhawks have gone 10-0 SU (and 8-2 ATS) when off of a game where they gave up 80 points or more. Long-term Kansas is 71-13 SU (and 52-25 ATS) after allowing 80+ points. The Jayhawks are also 7-0 SU this season in games with a posted total in the 140s and, with this line all the way down to a -3, any SU win for Kansas is quite likely to be an ATS win as well. I love the line value here backing a 20-3 Jayhawks team off of a rare loss. Yes, this is a rivalry game and Kansas State is likely to bring a strong effort tonight but the Wildcats are 4-15 SU (and 5-14 ATS) in their last 19 home games with Kansas! They just have proven to be no match for their rivals even when they have the home court edge. Also, in this season's match-up it has to be concern for Kansas State that they have been held to 68 points or less in 7 of their last 12 games. The Wildcats have gone 5-6 ATS during this stretch and they just don't have the firepower on offense to keep up with a Jayhawks team that is averaging 84 points per game on the season. By the way, Kansas State is off of an upset win at Baylor and the Wildcats have gone 7-11 ATS (and 5-13 SU) when off of a win over a conference foe. 8* KANSAS JAYHAWKS minus the short number Monday night |
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02-06-17 | Thunder +4.5 v. Pacers | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 8* Oklahoma City Thunder (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Even though Oklahoma City burned me yesterday with their tight win over Portland I am actually playing on the Thunder in this spot. While it may seem like a good spot to fade OKC off of a win and now traveling for a back to back, there is plenty of good reason as to why this line is on a downward move from as high as 5 down to as low as 3.5 at some books. Even though this is a back to back spot for the Thunder, they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights just like the Pacers are. Even though Indiana was off yesterday they had played games back to back the 2 prior days and a big key here is they are in a lookahead spot. This is a non-conference match-up for the the Pacers and they are much more concerned with their big game Wednesday (hosting the division rival and defending champ Cavaliers) than they are with this game. As for OKC, this is their only road game in the 1st 12 days of this month so this one has their full focus and attention. Also, the road team has taken each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs and that includes the Pacers winning at Oklahoma City earlier this season. The Thunder have payback on their minds here and they have absolutely been dominating the boards in recent games. Conversely, Indiana has been out-rebounded in 3 of its last 5 games. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge, 3-0 ATS when a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points, and 7-1 ATS when off of a divisional game! The Pacers are 11-17 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. 8* OKLAHOMA CITY plus the points early Monday evening. |
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02-06-17 | Louisville +5.5 v. Virginia | 55-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #525 Monday 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - The Cavaliers were as a low as a 3 point favorite when lines first came out yesterday on this game. Of course that doesn't make sense when you consider that Virginia is at home for this game, off of a loss, Louisville is down two guards, and the Cavaliers have dominated this series. The line has now jumped to as high as a 6 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the move. Even though a number of the Cards recent opponents have been of the "lesser" variety, winning breeds confidence and Louisville has now averaged 93.7 points per game in going a perfect 3-0 in their last 3 games. The Cardinals are knocking down shots and coach Rick Pitino will make adjustments after Louisville made some critical "scheme errors" in the home loss to the Cavaliers earlier this season. Make no mistake about it, Virginia is a quality team that plays fantastic defense but I expect the Cardinals to get their revenge here. The Cavs loss at Syracuse drops them to just 6-4 in their 10 games since winning at Louisville earlier this season. Both teams are on short rest here but the Cavs are 5-10 ATS when playing on short rest. Also, with a low total posted on this game don't be surprised when Virginia finds it tough to create any type of separation in this game. In home games with a posted total in the 120s the Cavaliers are on a 4-8 ATS run. The Louisville offense is hot and they won't shoot 14% from three point land like they did in the first match-up. In fact, the Cardinals are 7-1 (SU and ATS!) this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 8* LOUISVILLE CARDINALS plus the points early Monday evening |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI @ 6:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have only gained 155 yards on 54 carries in this post-season. The Falcons have not only gained 200 yards on 59 carries in the post-season, their rushing attack was stronger at the end of the regular season too. Atlanta has averaged 148.4 yards per game on the ground over their last 5 games. The reason I am talking so much about the ground game here is because I do feel it could be a key in this game. Both teams are led by tremendous quarterbacks with Tom Brady for the Patriots and Matt Ryan for the Falcons and each head coach knows the key to winning this game is keeping those guys off of the field. That said, a heavy dose of ground game is likely to be key from both sides here and I expect Atlanta to enjoy more success on the ground which could be the key here. Another angle I like is certainly the underdog mentality (hunger) of the Falcons here and the fact that QB Ryan has faced the Pats just twice in his career (2009 and 2013) and Atlanta lost both match-ups. Not only is it double revenge in that regard but Falcons coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with Seattle when the Seahawks faced the Patriots two years ago in the Super Bowl. Keep in mind Seattle was up 24-14 through 3 quarters in that game before the Pats rallied for the win in the 4th quarter. That experience will help Quinn here and the Falcons are "only" a 3 point dog here with good reason. This is an excellent football team and the Patriots strength of schedule this year has not been as strong as Atlanta's schedule. Also, for all that is made of how "dominant" the Patriots are (and certainly their amazing seasons and overall playoff performances are noteworthy) they are only 4-4 in their 8 Super Bowl appearances and the 4 wins have ALL come by 4 points or less. The aforementioned win over Seattle was the only 4 point win and the other 3 all came by just 3 points. Of course the Patriots are the "popular choice" here due to the public loving to back the "been there, done that" mentality but I really like the Quinn angle here against the Pats and the fact that New England is without Gronkowski and the fact that Atlanta will play up the underdog "us against the world" mentality for this game. QB Ryan has had a phenomenal season and, with all due respect to Brady, the Falcons weapons at the skill positions (guys like Julio Jones just to name one) are likely to be the ones that make the big plays necessary to win this game. I'll grab the points because in 8 Super Bowls the Patriots have only one win by more than 3 points so certainly there is value in having the field goal on our side BUT certainly I am playing this expecting the outright win for the underdog. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS plus the points |
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02-05-17 | Colorado +6.5 v. California | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ California Golden Bears @ 4:30 ET - There is a lot of value with the points here. Colorado is off of 3 straight wins. After a 10-3 start to the season the Buffaloes then lost 7 straight but they've responded by rattling off 3 wins. It was evident the Buffs might be about to turn the corner as 4 of their past 6 defeats had come by 3 points or less. Of course what that means is that the Buffaloes, if priced at the point spread range they are in today, would be 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Ultra competitive Colorado has indeed turned the corner and they now take on a Cal team that, although winning, continues to be gauged incorrectly by the markets. California has won 6 of its last 7 games but they enter this Sunday match-up on a 1-5 ATS run. The Golden Bears were held to 40.3% in their tight non-covering win over Utah on Thursday. That marked the 7th time in their last 11 games that Cal was held under 40.4% from the field. Not surprisingly they've gone 4-7 ATS during this stretch and they now take on a Colorado team that is averaging 78 points per game (and shooting 45.8% in conference action). Compare this to California who is averaging just 69 points (and shooting 42.5% in PAC-12 action). The Golden Bears are just 5-12 ATS as a favorite this season. Also, over the past 3 seasons combined, Cal is 15-24 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Bears will struggle to create much separation on the scoreboard in this one as Colorado is a dangerous dog. The Buffaloes have a 25-11 SU record the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Buffs roll into Cal with plenty of confidence and this one should go down to the wire with an outright win for the underdog (surging with confidence) certainly not out of the question. 10* Top Play COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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02-05-17 | Blazers +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:05 ET - This series has been dominated by the home team in recent match-ups but there are number of indicators pointing to an upset in this one. Portland comes into this one having gone 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 games. One key for the Trail Blazers, in comparison with the Thunder, has been turnovers. In their last 5 games, the Blazers have turned the ball over only 9.6 times per game. Conversely, Oklahoma City has turned the ball over an average of 16.2 times per game in their last 6 games. In 2 of their last 3 games the Thunder have turned it over 20 times. OKC enters this game having gone 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 games. The Thunder have been held to 38% or less from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. The Trail Blazers have been consistently at the other end of the spectrum of late. Portland is averaging 47% from the field over their last 6 games and has not been held below 45% in any of those games. This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Thunder as it's the 4th game of a stretch of 5 games in 7 days which is never easy on a team. As for the Blazers, this is one of only two games they have in the first 6 days of this month. Oklahoma City was a small home dog versus Memphis and the Thunder are an ugly 7-11 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Trail Blazers have excelled in divisional games with a 27-11 SU mark the past 3 seasons combined and they are 4-2 ATS in divisional games this season. 10* PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS plus the points Sunday |
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02-05-17 | Nebraska +5 v. Iowa | 70-81 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #863 Sunday 8* Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 2 ET - Peter Jok, Iowa's leading scorer, is likely to return for today's game and that is actually even more reason to back Nebraska here! Why? No disrespect intended to Jok as the 6'6 senior is a great player overall but, the fact remains, he has been struggling and I don't expect him to return from these back issues and immediately be shooting "lights out". In fact, he could actually hurt his team if he's still playing the way he was before missing the last two games. Jok's final three games (all losses) saw him make just 9 of 30 shots and average only 9.3 points per game! The Hawkeyes have now won their past two games without him but now he returns and Iowa goes from facing a bad Rutgers team to facing a respectable Cornhuskers team. Although Nebraska is off of a loss and has been on the wrong end of some tight games lately, note that the Huskers are 5-6 in their last 11 games with 4 of the 6 losses by single digits including two of them by just a single point. Teams have been knocking down a lot of threes on Nebraska but Iowa had been held to 31% or less from beyond the arc in 5 of their last 6 games before they finally game up big in these last two games and, again, Jok missed both of those games. In conference games, Nebraska has the better numbers on defense in comparison with Iowa. Also, the Cornhuskers are 5-2 ATS on the road this season. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in the short-term and 11-20 ATS in the long-term when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Cornhuskers have played a slightly tougher strength of schedule this season too and, even though this is a revenge spot for the Hawkeyes, I look for it to be another very close game like the first one was and there is great value with the points here as the Huskers could very well get the upset here. 8* NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS plus the points early Sunday |
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02-04-17 | St. John's +18 v. Villanova | Top | 79-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #675 Saturday - 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Villanova @ 8 ET - The Red Storm are much improved this season and yet they are still flying under the radar which is why we're able to get exceptional line value in a spot like this. Villanova has failed to cover 4 straight games and has appeared shaky of late with an upset loss at Marquette, a fortunate win versus Virginia, and then having to rally to hold off Providence. The Wildcats just aren't "in the zone" like the way earlier this season in terms of playing their best basketball. With that said, this is a tough spot for the Cats to be expected to cover a large spread because St John's is playing their best basketball of the season and the confidence is enough to make them a legitimate threat to hang around in this game. While the Red Storm have been much better offensively than in year's past the key indicator that makes St John's dangerous here is a "buy in" into playing better on defense. After a win at Providence that was a shootout and then a tight home loss to Xavier, the Red Storm finally realized they must play better defense if they want to win the big games and they looked sharp in their win over Marquette as they held the dangerous shooting of the Golden Eagles to just 37.1% from the field. The Red Storm have now covered three straight games and with St John's on ATS winning streak and the Wildcats slumping at the betting window, this is the perfect spot to grab the value with the big dog before the betting markets catch up. Keep in mind, Villanova is 1-4 ATS in recent seasons (and 20-40 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. The point is that the Wildcats are well-known for being a streaky team and they just are not playing "crisp" basketball right now like they were at times earlier in the season. As for the Red Storm, they are 9-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and they are 3-1 ATS (and SU!) when playing with home loss revenge this season. Now I certainly don't foresee them getting the outright upset here but I do expect the surging Red Storm to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* Top Play ST JOHN'S plus the big points Saturday evening. |
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02-04-17 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays as certainly the line had to look a little "funny" to most when the hot Wizards opened up as only an 8 point choice even though they are at home against a slumping Pelicans team. Of course, whenever line look a little "off" it merits additional investigation and, in this case, I certainly like what I found. The Wizards are off of their non-covering win over the Lakers and have a huge game on deck with the Cavaliers. This is clearly a tough scheduling spot for Washington. Look for the Wizards to look right past a 19-31 New Orleans team that they've dominated in recent meetings. That makes the Pelicans a very dangerous dog in this spot. New Orleans is off of an ugly effort at Detroit and that was their 3rd straight SU loss. However, the Pelicans had gone 11-6 ATS prior to that non-cover against the Pistons and, after losing by 20, I look for N.O. to come out with plenty of fire in this one. New Orleans is 15-9 ATS in non-conference games this season and has played a tougher overall schedule than Washington this season. Look for the old West vs East disparity to play a factor in this one as well as, generally, the Western Conference teams face tougher competition than the East. The Wizards get caught looking ahead to the Cavs. 10* NEW ORLEANS plus the big points Saturday evening |
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02-04-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati -12.5 | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #682 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 4 ET - Even though the points look big here, it is absolutely a justified line. The Huskies are in a "down season". Yes, UConn has rattled off 3 straight wins but those came against the 3 worst teams in the AAC - East Carolina, South Florida, and Tulane. Now the Huskies have to deal with a Cincinnati team that has revenge on its mind in this one. Connecticut is known for giving the Bearcats trouble and Cincy was clearly looking ahead to this game when they barely got by Tulsa earlier this week. The Cats have been knocked out of tourney action in March by the Huskies each of the past two years and last season's was a crazy multiple-overtime marathon finish. Cincy will simply not allow the Huskies to hang around in this game Saturday and, because of the revenge angle, the Bearcats also won't take their foot off of the gas once they are up big. In other words, though we're laying around a dozen points in this one, I don't expect that to be an issue at all. The Bearcats have tremendous depth this season while the thin Huskies are dealing with a number of injury issues. UConn has already lost to SMU and Houston by an average of 18 points per game and a road trip to Cincy where the Cats have won 21 straight games, will prove to be just as tough as those games if not tougher! Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in games against teams averaging 77 points or more this season and simply won't be able to keep up here. The Bearcats are on a 22-3 SU run (and 14-8 ATS) when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. After barely getting by Tulsa in an ugly game Wednesday, Cincy comes out firing on all cylinders on both ends of the floor for this one. 8* CINCINNATI |
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02-04-17 | Seton Hall +2.5 v. Georgetown | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Saturday 8* Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ Noon ET - This is a must win for the Pirates as they are coming off of back to back losses and have simply lost too many close games in Big East action so far this season. The two defeats came at the hands of two quality teams - Butler and Xavier - and Seton Hall now takes a step down in terms of level of opposition to battle Georgetown. Although the Hoyas are off of three straight wins, the victories came against a Creighton team without their star point guard and then a tight win at Butler and a win over Big East cellar dweller DePaul. Georgtown had lost 6 of 8 before this 3-game winning streak and the Hoyas defense has allowed 73 points or more in 4 of last 5 games. The Pirates recent tough schedule caught up with them but they've still allowed just 69.4 points per game in their last 5 games and that included a battle with Villanova when they were still the #1 team in the country. Seton Hall can leapfrog the Hoyas in the standings with a victory today and, off of back to back losses, the Pirates are going to bring their "A game" for this one. They won both games against Georgetown last season and are on a 17-7 SU (and 17-6 ATS) run in Saturday games. The Hoyas are on an 8-16 ATS run when off of a win in conference action. 8* SETON HALL |
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02-03-17 | Pacers -7 v. Nets | Top | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #855 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions so the only concern in laying the points would have to be motivation. But you can also "check the box" on that factor as well - for multiple reasons - and that is why I am laying the points with the Pacers in this one. Even though Indiana has a home game with Detroit on deck there is no way they'll look past the Nets here. That's because the Pacers have lost their last two visits to Brooklyn including their lone match-up there this season. That was Indiana's road opener and started a stretch of 5 straight road losses to begin the season. The other key factor is that the Pacers have been getting tremendous production of late from Paul George but he was held to a season-low 8 points at Orlando Wednesday and Indiana still won the game by double digits. That tells us two things as it relates to tonight's game: the Pacers supporting cast is fully capable of stepping up on an off night for George AND look for one of the NBA's best players to absolutely "go off" tonight with a huge game against one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets come into this game having gone 1-18 SU in their last 19 games. Brooklyn is also 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games. This is in stark contrast to a Pacers club that has won 11 of its last 15 games SU and has gone 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games. When Indiana enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more they've gone 3-1 ATS this season. When Brooklyn enters a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, they've gone 6-16 ATS this season. The Pacers have beaten the Nets by a combined 33 points in their last two home meetings but they've lost their last two road meetings by a combined 19 points and it is time for some road revenge here. 10* INDIANA PACERS minus the points |
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02-03-17 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Central Michigan | 82-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #883 Friday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Central Michigan Chippewas @ 6:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I love to be a contrarian and this is one of those spots that is just daring bettors to invest in Western Michigan which is precisely why I am grabbing the Broncos in this spot. Note that Western Michigan is 0-12 away from home this season and Central Michigan is 9-1 at home. Overall on the season the Chippewas are 14-8 so far and the Broncos are 7-14. When you consider these factors and the fact that the Chips are at home for this game then you wonder how in the world can the Chippewas only have opened as a 4 point favorite here. Of course, as the saying goes, "the devil is in the details" and that is the key here. The Broncos have played a much tougher schedule than have the Chips this season. Also, Western Michigan is the better shooting team and Central Michigan has been held to 40.5% or less from the field in 3 of its last 5 games. The Chippewas also have a negative rebound differential while the Broncos have a positive edge in caroms off the glass on the season. Western Michigan is off of a win but gave up big points and they are 13-7 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. The Broncos are also 5-1 ATS in Friday games, 9-3 ATS in games against teams with a winning record, and 8-1 ATS this season in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more. Western Michigan needs a W here to draw even with the Chippewas in the MAC West so there is no shortage of motivation here. Also, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Chips and also have 3 straight SU wins over Central Michigan. The Chippewas are 4-7 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and they are a long-term 6-14 ATS in Friday games. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS plus the points |
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02-02-17 | Lakers +11 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Lakers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards have won 15 straight home games which is the longest current home winning streak in the NBA. The Lakers have won only 5 road games this season which is fewer than any other team in the Western Conference. The combination of these two factors is likely going to have many jumping all over Washington in this one but this situation favors Los Angeles and I'll gladly grab the big points here. While the Lakers will be playing just their 2nd game in the past 7 days, the Wizards will be playing their 4th game in 7 days. Also it is easy for Washington to overlook a 17-34 team like the Lakers. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slow start for the Wizards in this one and though they should pull out the win in the end it is likely going to be by single digits as the Lakers are going to given them a tough game. Los Angeles welcomed back D'Angelo Russell in their most recent game and got the win over Denver Tuesday. Also, the Lakers could have Julius Randle back tonight. Whether Randle is back or not, I like the fact that LA has some momentum coming in off of their win over the Nuggets and I also like the fact that 4 of the Lakers last 5 defeats have come by 8 points or less. The Lakers last road trip started horribly with a bad loss at Dallas but that is the only game in their last 7 games that has resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. Lakers are playing better and are fully focused as they want to get this 5-game road trip started on the right foot. The fresher legs will prove to help as well as they had 4 days off before that victory over Denver. It is going to be difficult for a superior Eastern Conference foe to maintain their intensity against a Pacific Division opponent. In fact, the Lakers have gone 5-2 ATS this season (and 17-9 ATS the past 3 seasons) in games against Southeast Division foes. They "sneak up" on the Wizards here and end their 10-0 ATS run! 10* LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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02-01-17 | Bruins v. Capitals -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 180 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Game #2 Wednesday 8* Washington Capitals Puck Line -1.5 goals +180 vs Boston Bruins @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Caps but as long-time followers know I am not fond of laying big juice. Simply too much risk involved in the long run so I avoid, almost without exception, ever laying big money lines in MLB and NHL. That said, in certain situations the run line in MLB or puck line in NHL can make for a great value line to get involved in a game that should be a blowout. In this case, the Capitals are off of a loss but saved their All-Star goalie, Braden Holtby, for tonight's game while the Bruins are off of a win but they used their #1 netminder Tuukka Rask in last night's victory. Holtby has been fantastic against the Bruins with a 10-2 mark and a 1.69 GAA and .948 save percentage versus Boston. Washington had won 13 of 15 games before last night's loss and the Capitals last 8 wins have featured 7 victories by a margin of 3 goals or more. That said, I'll gladly lay the 1.5 goals here to have a shot at a +180 payback on my dollar. The Bruins are in a bad goal-tending spot with having to either start Rask on a rare, back-to-back or to go with a back-up netminder. This gives the Caps a huge edge in goal for tonight's match-up and, keep in mind, Washington has scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in their last 16 games! Boston has scored better of late but Holtby is tough between the pipes and the Bruins, before this 3-game winning streak had last four straight games and had been held to 1 goal or less in 3 of the 4 games. The Bruins have lost 7 of 8 back to backs this season and there is reason to believe this one will be a blowout defeat as the Capitals are fired up off of a loss. 8* WASHINGTON CAPITALS Puck Line |
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02-01-17 | Pacers -2.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are a much better home team than road team. There is no doubt about that. However, Indiana has won 10 of its last 14 games overall, including 3 in a row, and Paul George has been red hot and certainly seems to be rounding into top form again. The Pacers have won 3 of their last 5 road games and Orlando is only 8-15 at home this season. Even though the Magic just recently got Evan Fournier back, he'll take some time to round back into top form and the backcourt depth has been hurt with the absence of CJ Wilcox and Jodie Meeks. Indiana is 8-1 (SU and ATS!) in its last 9 meetings with the Magic and this is an Orlando team that enters this game having lost 13 of its last 17 games. All 13 losses for the Magic during this rough stretch have come by at least 6 points so the small point spread here certainly should not prove to be an obstacle. The Magic are 7-15-1 ATS in home games this season and have field to cover 2 of 7 as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Pacers are on a 4-1 ATS run when off of a game where they allowed 104 points or less. Orlando has been held to 98 points or less in regulation in 10 of its last 14 games. This is in stark contrast to a high-powered Indiana offense that has scored at least 100 points in 17 of its last 20 games. Lay the small number with the small road fave in this one. 10* INDIANA PACERS |
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02-01-17 | Penn State v. Indiana -6 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #526 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Hoosiers (-) vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 6:30 ET - The Hoosiers are without James Blackmon Jr. and he is their leading scorer. However, after back to back road losses (including one without Blackmon at Northwestern Saturday), Indiana will respond at home. Certainly it helps the Hoosiers that they are back home but what also helps is that they played a game without him at Northwestern Saturday. Indiana played respectable defense in that game but they shot very poorly. The Hoosiers will get back on track at home as they still have a number of solid players that can "fill it up" as guys like Robert Johnson, Thomas Bryant, Josh Newkirk, and Juwan Morgan are all capable of getting double digits in points. Also, freshman Devonte Green is likely to shoot much better at home after the guard had a tough road game against the Wildcats in his first game with extended minutes due to the Blackmon injury. Penn State is off of a home win versus Illinois but they lost their past two road games by a combined 52 points! Before a rare strong shooting night versus the Illini, the Nittany Lions had been held under 38.9% in four straight games! Look for the Lions shooting struggles to resume on the road tonight. The Hoosiers, off of back to back losses, will bring the intensity on defense for this one and this is an Indiana team that has averaged 87.3 points per game at home this season. Even without Blackmon, the Hoosiers will be able to score plenty and knock off a Penn State team that does not travel well. Even though the Nittany Lions are playing this game with home loss revenge from a month ago, PSU is an ugly 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played with home loss revenge! That includes 0-2 SU and ATS so far this season. Indiana is on a 44-6 SU run in home games and they've gone 8-4 ATS in home games this season. Of course we're getting supreme line value here on the Hoosiers because of the Blackmon injury. A line that first opened up at 9 is all the way down to a 6 and I'll gladly fade the move and grab the great line value with the home fave that is ready to step up tonight. Lay it! 10* INDIANA HOOSIERS |
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01-31-17 | Pelicans +8 v. Raptors | 106-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Toronto may be a popular choice here since they are off of a loss but I'll explain why, from a situational standpoint, the Raptors are actually in quite a tough spot here. First off though I just want to say that the Pelicans are the type of scrappy underdog I like to have a in a spot like this. New Orleans is coming off of a bad home loss to Washington but the Pelicans were off of a big win versus the Spurs in their prior game so losing to the Wizards was not a big surprise. Prior to knocking off San Antonio, the Pelicans lost to Oklahoma City by single digits and that game followed a New Orleans upset of Cleveland so they truly have been a tough "out" of late and they catch the Raptors at a good time to spring the upset. Toronto has a game on deck at Boston tomorrow night. Of course the Raptors are currently neck and neck with the Celtics at the top of the Atlantic Division so it's hard for Toronto to not get caught looking ahead here. That said, the Raptors weren't necessarily a lock to win this game even if they didn't have a lookahead. Toronto has lost 6 of its last 7 games and they now host a New Orleans team off of a loss and looking for revenge after getting swept by the Raptors last season - lost each game by at least 19 points! The Pelicans had shot 46% or better from the field in 6 of their last 10 games before the loss to the Wizards. By comparison, the struggling Raptors haven't shot better than 45.6% in ANY of their last SEVEN games! The revenge seeking dog, off of a loss, facing a struggling home fave in a lookhead spot, is absolutely the play here. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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01-31-17 | Miami (OH) v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Early Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (-) vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - Ugly records here overall for both teams but that doesn't diminish the importance of this game to either school as this is a big rivalry match-up. From a situational perspective, this one sets up perfectly for the Falcons. Bowling Green is off of an embarrassing home loss but the key was that 4 players were suspended before that game. Two were starters including the Falcons leading scorer. How diminished was the BG roster? They actually suited up two football players just so that they could have 9 players available and one of those was a walk-on. The point is that the 96-72 home loss was not a surprise given the circumstances but the key is how that impacts this game. It probably kept this line a little lower than it should be and I expect Bowling Green to come out with a ton of fire and emotion after what happened Saturday. The Falcons are hosting a Redhawks team that is 0-8 on the road this season. Also, Miami-Ohio comes into this game having lost 6 of its last 7 overall. 6 of their 8 road losses this season have come by 7 points or more! The Falcons have won 7 of their last 10 home games and 5 of the last 6 home wins have come by double digit margins and none of the 6 victories came by less than 5 points. Look for the Redhawks to drop to 7-12 ATS when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less while the Falcons improve to 4-0 ATS when this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 83 points or more. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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01-30-17 | Duke +1 v. Notre Dame | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
ESPN Early Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #511 Monday 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - You would have to look long and hard to find many recent situations where Duke is playing with triple revenge but that is the case here. The Fighting Irish have knocked the Blue Devils out of the ACC Tourney each of the past two seasons and, in their only regular season match-up in between Notre Dame also won and that game was at Duke! That said, the Blue Devils would love nothing more than to return the favor by knocking off the Irish on their home floor tonight. There is certainly no shortage of motivation as, in addition to the triple revenge factor, the Blue Devils are currently looking up at Notre Dame in the ACC standings! Indeed it has been some trying times for Duke with Coach K missing time, etc. However, this is still - of course! - a high quality team that is loaded with talent and they're getting about as healthy as they have been all season long. Though they are off of a non-covering win, the victory at Wake Forest Saturday was still a big one for Duke as they'll now be seeking their 3rd win in 4 games tonight and it is important for the confidence of the young Blue Devils that they showed a lot of grit and determination in rising up to knock off the Demon Deacons on the road in a close game. The Fighting Irish had been rolling in close games but Notre Dame has now lost three of its last four games including 2 by 3 points or less. They're starting to question themselves internally and that makes this a bad time to be hosting one of the most talented teams in the country that also is motivated by being in the underdog role and playing with revenge. Duke is knocking down 48% of their shots in conference action while Notre Dame has been held to 44.6% in ACC action and has particularly struggled (under 42%) in each of their last two games. The Blue Devils are 8-2 SU this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Fighting Irish are 0-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 66 points or less. Also, Notre Dame is 6-13 ATS long-term in home games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 154.5 points. A lot of points expected here and the Blue Devils are the hotter shooting team while the Irish are slumping. 8* DUKE |
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01-30-17 | Kings v. 76ers +1 | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #546 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:35 ET - Many are fading the Sixers because this is a back to back spot and Joel Embiid, even though he didn't play yesterday, is listed as questionable for tonight due to knee soreness. However, the 76'ers have been playing well, even when Embiid has missed, and although this is a back to back spot for Philly the Kings scheduling situation is arguably worse. This game was rescheduled from November 30th when the court was unplayable due to too much moisture. The result is that this game is now near the tail-end of a lengthy Sacramento road trip. The Kings have a game at Houston tomorrow night that wraps up a stretch of 8 games in 12 days and all have been on the road! As for the Sixers, even though they are playing their 7th game in 11 days at least they are at home and they don't have a game tomorrow. Look for Philly to go "all out" in this game tonight. Yesterday the Sixers were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Bulls were desperate for a win and had been "called out" by their coach, it was their first game that followed starters not starting, etc. Now the Sixers catch a road-weary Kings team that is off of a win and Philadelphia has revenge on its mind after falling just short against the Kings in Sacramento 5 weeks ago. Philly, even with yesterday's non-cover, is still a red-hot 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games. The Kings are a short road favorite here and let's not forget they were 4-11 SU in their last 15 games before eking out a win at Charlotte Saturday. The resurgent Sixers have been particularly tough at home where they have covered 7 in a row. Look for that 7-0 ATS run to add another W Monday. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-29-17 | South Florida +24.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-94 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #869 Sunday 10* Top Play South Florida Bulls (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 4 ET - The Bulls definitely fit the bill as an "ugly dog" as they are still winless in conference action while Cincinnati is undefeated in American Athletic Conference action. However, the set-up here is perfect for a South Florida team (playing a little better since coach change) to keep this one well within the inflated spread range. For the Bulls, this is an opportunity to go hard against a ranked conference foe. For the Bearcats, they just want to win and move on. The Cats are off of a huge win over Xavier in their city rivalry game that just took place Thursday. Not only was that a big win for the Bearcats, Cincinnati has a road game up next with Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane only have 2 losses in conference action and will present a formidable challenge for the Cats. With that said, this is a true "sandwich spot" as Cincy is off of a tight, emotional win over a city rival and has a big road conference game on deck. Even if the Bearcats do get up big in this game there is simply no reason to "pour it on" and I see this game being decided by no more than 18 points. Cincy blew out the Bulls in their most recent match-up but the two prior games were Bearcats wins by an average margin of just 4 points a game. South Florida is on a 12-4 ATS run as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. The Bulls have shot the ball a little better and averaged 63 points per game in their last 6 games and if they hit that average the Bearcats would have to get to nearly 90 points to cover in this one. That has only happened once in Cincinnati's last 8 games. Grab the big points in this one. 10* SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS |
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01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #850 Sunday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 1 ET - The Cavaliers are known for their defense but they've actually allowed opponents to connect in the mid-forties from the field over their last 8 games - basically since conference action got underway. The Wildcats aren't quite as heralded for their defense but yet, prior to the upset loss at Marquette, they had allowed only about 40% from the field over their last 10 games. Villanova is fired up to respond after a very rare poor shooting night resulted in a loss to the Golden Eagles. The Wildcats shot a ridiculous 17.6% from three point land. The Cavaliers, again even though known for defending well, had struggled against the three ball in their last 6 games prior to a dominating win at Notre Dame. With the Cavs off of that big win and the Cats off of an upset loss, this one sets up nice. We get some extra line value as a result of those most recent games and, keep in mind, the Wildcats are at home and are seeking revenge for a loss at Virginia last season. The Cats show the ball very well in five straight games before the loss in Milwaukee and they'll get right back on track here. Nova is 6-0 SU (and 5-1 ATS) when off of a loss to a conference foe. Also, the Cavs are 10-30 SU (and 15-25 ATS) as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Cavaliers are also on a long-term 7-17 ATS run against Big East opponents. Payback is on order here and I look for the Wildcats to get it as this team is strong off of a loss! 10* VILLANOVA |
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01-28-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
THE Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are in a back to back. The Celtics won in a blowout and the Bucks lost in a blowout. That will likely have many backing Milwaukee since they are at home for this one. However, neither team had to go extended minutes on any of their players last night and the Celtics are the better team and playing the much better basketball. More on that shortly. First off, lets also note the following stats in the 2nd day of back to backs: The Bucks are 2-7 ATS this season and 17-33 SU the past 3 seasons combined! The Celtics are a phenomenal 7-3 SU this season and 31-15 ATS the past 3 seasons combined! You can see that back to back spots have clearly favored Boston over Milwaukee. Also, the Bucks come into this game slumping and their defense has been atrocious of late. This has played a large role in Milwaukee going 1-7 (both SU and ATS) in their last 8 games. As for the Celtics, they are expected to have Al Horford back for this game and certainly they've adjusted well since Avery Bradley got hurt. Long-term the Celtics are on a 15-6 SU run and, on the road, Boston has gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. This line has been flip-flopping this morning but, no matter what, it is still noteworthy that in road games where the Celtics line is between a pick'em and -3 Boston has gone 7-0 SU and ATS this season! The Bucks are a horrible 1-9 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Celtics have averaged just 12.7 turnovers per game in their last 7 games. The Bucks have turned the ball over 19 times in each of their last 3 games. Boston has held 10 of its last 12 opponents to 47.1% or less from the field. Milwaukee has allowed 3 of its last 4 foes to knock down better than 50.5% of their shots from the field. This one has the makings of a road rout. 10* BOSTON |
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01-28-17 | Kansas +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
THE GAME KU/UK - Rickenbach CBB Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6:15 ET - With all the distractions going on the best possible thing for the Jayhawks is to simply "play basketball" and that is why I love Kansas in this spot. With the suspension of Carlton Bragg and then the investigation into a dorm incident (unrelated to the Bragg suspension) there has been a lot of "noise" around the KU basketball program right now. Of course coach Bill Self just wants to get his team back on the floor and "see how they respond" Saturday but I have very little doubt about how they'll respond. The Jayhawks are off of an embarrassing loss by a double digit margin at West Virginia Tuesday and they're fired up and ready to go for this opportunity to atone for that loss on the biggest possible stage. This shot at the Wildcats truly could not have come at a better time for a Jayhawk program that needs to make some positive headlines after all that has transpired just recently. Keep in mind Kansas had won 18 in a row before the loss to the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks have knocked down 40% or better from beyond the arc in 6 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats have been held to 26.3% or worse from 3-point land in three of their last six games. Kentucky's defense, including perimeter D, has truly struggled over these 6 games as well. The Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule this season and I like the fact that KU is undervalued by the betting markets right now because of what just happened at Huntington and the fact that Kansas is only 6-12 ATS on the season. The Jayhawks are 9-0 SU when off of a loss to a conference rival and also 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Kentucky may eke out a win here but, this one should go to the wire and be decided only by a possession (or two at the most) and that means value with the big points. Look for the Wildcats to drop to 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as their slump continues. 10* KANSAS JAYHAWKS |
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01-28-17 | Maryland +4.5 v. Minnesota | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #537 Saturday 8* Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 2 ET - The line makes sense here, from the standpoint that the Golden Gophers are at home and getting the "shading" of home court edge plus have played a slightly tougher schedule than the Terrapins have this season. However, I am not convinced about where Minnesota is at "mentally" for this game as they have now lost 4 straight games. Granted the last 3 defeats have all been close but now the Gophers are laying a couple buckets against a Terps team that is playing well and comes into this game seeking revenge for a loss here as a double digit favorite last season. Maryland has won and covered 5 straight games entering this match-up. The Terrapins are also 7-0 ATS (and SU!) as an underdog this season. Simply put, they have thrived in the underdog role this season and they'll use that as extra motivation here - not that they needed it considering they lost here last year. Minnesota's loss at Penn State two weeks ago said a lot about this Golden Gophers team. They had no business losing that game as they were off of a loss to Michigan State and catching the Nittany Lions off of a huge emotional win over those same Spartans in a "special game" played in Philly. When Minny blew that game you knew troubles were coming and their losing streak has now reached 4 straight games as they have since allowed 50% shooting in back to back games. In comparing these two teams the Terrapins have been playing the much better defense of late and, in fact, on the season the Terps have only allowed better than 46.3% one single time! 8* MARYLAND |
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01-27-17 | Nets +15 v. Cavs | Top | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #857 Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are struggling and, as a result, many will likely be looking to back them here after a home loss. However, there are a number of issues with that. Historically, playing teams off of an overtime loss is often a dicey play as OT losses are toughest on a team's psyche and, the fact is the Cavs were already fragile before losing at home to the Kings on Wednesday. Another factor going against Cleveland here is simply the large spread. The Cavaliers are not only trying to get back on track here but they're being asked to cover a 15 point spread. This seems to be far too much considering Brooklyn has been playing a little bit better. The Nets actually led the Heat by 18 points in what was an eventual 3 point loss at Miami Wednesday. That means that 3 of Brooklyn's last 4 losses were decided by an average of 6.7 points per game. By the way, the one win in their there was a Nets "explosion" on offense as they erupted for 143 points at New Orleans last Friday. Certainly the Brooklyn D is not a strength but their offense has averaged 110.6 points per game in their last 7 games and it is that type of offensive production that makes a team dangerous in terms of a backdoor cover as well. The point is that even if the Cavs are fortunate enough to get up by 20 points in this game, when they start emptying the bench and looking ahead to a weekend showdown with OKC, the Nets can very easily get this one back to a 10 or 12 point game. The fact is I feel this one will be decided by single digits as the Cavs are just looking to get back into the win column after losing 3 straight and 6 of their last 8. Cleveland's ATS numbers are even worse as they've covered only 3 times in their last 15 games - a 20% ATS clip! Other than a blowout loss versus San Antonio (one of the hottest teams in the league) the Nets have looked much better over the past week and a half and everyone gets up for facing the Cavs. In other words, look for another strong effort from the hungry road dog in this one as Cleveland's issues continue. The Cavaliers are an ugly 6-14 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Nets are 8-4 ATS when playing with home loss revenge and they lost to the Cavs by 8 points in Brooklyn three weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 8 point loss for the Nets here and that means plenty of line value with the big points here. 10* BROOKLYN NETS |
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01-27-17 | Dartmouth v. Columbia -7.5 | Top | 54-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #874 Friday 10* Top Play Columbia Lions (-) vs Dartmouth Big Green @ 7 ET - Columbia entered Saturday's match-up versus the Big Red having won 3 straight games and covered 3 straight games. This included Friday's outright upset win at Cornell. After three straight victories, the Lions did not get the job done on their home floor Saturday and that sets this one up perfectly. Columbia is at home, off of a home loss, they are well rested, and they are facing a bad Dartmouth team. Coming into the season the Big Green knew that their biggest need was a playmaking guard. That hasn't materialized for coach David McLaughlin as his team has 15 turnovers compared to just 11 assists per game and their leading assist man is only averaged 2 assists per game. Columbia, though they lost a lot of talent from last season's team, are in a much better spot for success this season. Their new coach, Jim Engles, was an assistant with the Lions from 2003 to 2008 and then went on to have a successful run as a head coach at NJIT. He's now back with Columbia but, thanks to his familiarity with the program, there wasn't much of a transition period. As a result, the Lions may surprise some teams in conference action this season and certainly they should have no trouble with a Big Green team they annihilated by an average of 18 points per game in last season's two meetings. In lined games this season, Dartmouth is 0-7 SU (and only 1-6 ATS). As a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons, the Big Green have gone 0-5 SU (and 1-4 ATS). The Lions have a long-term mark of 23-6 SU (and 18-11 ATS) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Columbia is at home and the Lions defend better, shoot better, have more playmaking ability, take better care of the basketball, and are motivated off of a loss that snapped a 3-game winning streak. Look for a blowout home win here. 10* COLUMBIA LIONS |
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01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Thursday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves have won 3 straight games and 6 of their last 8. As a young team, momentum and confidence are very important and Minnesota certainly has all that on their side after Wiggins nailed a jumper at the buzzer for a win at Phoenix Tuesday. Indeed the Wolves come rolling into this game with confidence and are happy to be back home where they have won 4 straight and 7 of their last 10. Minnesota is seeking revenge in this one as the Pacers got the win in both match-ups last season. Indiana comes into this game heading the opposite direction with 3 straight losses and would love to get back on track but the road has not been kind to them. The Pacers are 6-15 (both SU and ATS) in road games this season and they also are 7-17 ATS in all games with a posted total of 210 or more this season. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 or more and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Look for them to stay red hot here as Indiana's lineup change (CJ Miles starting instead of Glenn Robinson) certainly did not go well as he made only 4 of 14 in Monday's home loss to New York. Simpy put, the Pacers are trying to "find it" right now while the Timberwolves have already "found it" in terms of team chemistry and player rotations. 8* MINNESOTA |
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01-26-17 | Xavier v. Cincinnati -5 | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #710 Thursday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 7 ET - The Bearcats are fired up even more than usual for this year's Crosstown Shootout as the big battle for bragging rights in Cincy takes place Thursday. Xavier has won three straight meetings and Cincinnati's senior class certainly doesn't want to go down in history as the first Bearcats class ever to not defeat the Musketeers in their 4-year careers! This is a quality Cats team this season with a 17-2 record (including 11-0 at home) and, even though Xavier has held the upper hand in this series in recent years, this is Cincy coach Mick Cronin's best team in his 11 years here. The Musketeers are off of a win but had previously lost three straight and that included a home loss to Creighton in the game where the Bluejays lost their star guard in the first half. We are now seeing just how bad Creighton has been without Maurice Watson and that makes that Xavier home loss even more "inexcusable". The fact is the Musketeers just aren't as strong this season as they've been in prior years and, as their schedule has toughened up, the losses have mounted. I expect another on here. Xavier is an ugly 1-4 (both SU and ATS) in road games this season. The Musketeers also 0-3 SU and ATS as an underdog this season. Statistically, Cincinnati is allowing a field goal percentage of only 36.8% while the Musketeers allow 43.6%. Also, the Bearcats are shooting a solid 48% from the field compared to 45% for Xavier. Indeed Cincy has "shooters" this season and they've also gotten bigger inside. They're going to be tough in a setting where it is a home game they view as a "must win". 8* CINCINNATI |
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01-26-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Marshall -14 | Top | 71-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #724 Thursday - 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - The Thundering Herd have been getting off to slow starts in their games and so they aim to come out strong from the opening tip in the middle game of a 3-game homestand. Marshall also has revenge against UTSA as the Roadrunners handed the Thundering Herd a loss in Huntington in their only trip here. I see this spot as a great spot for Marshall to not only get revenge but to get it in blowout fashion. They are motivated to start out strong, as noted above, and their #1 C-USA ranked offense is simply going to be too much for the Runners to keep up with. Marshall is averaging 92 points per home game while UTSA is averaging only 61 points per road game this season. As you can see that is a 31-point differential but, what is keeping this line in check is the fact that the Roadrunners have some solid defensive numbers on the season. However, that has been helped by facing a weak schedule thus far (including the C-USA opponents that UTSA has faced). In other words, the Runners defense, although improved, is simply over-rated right now and their offense is too anemic to keep up with the high-powered Herd in this one. The Roadrunners are 2-10 SU (and 2-7 ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, the Runners are 2-8 SU (and 2-5 ATS) in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. The Thundering Herd are on a long-term 24-9 ATS run as a favorite and Marshall is on a long-term 26-12 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Look for the Thundering Herd to stay hot and add to their fantastic mark of 10-0 SU (and 7-0 ATS) in home games this season! 10* MARSHALL |
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01-25-17 | 76ers +11 v. Bucks | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks will be a popular play here since they are at home, seeking revenge, and catching the Sixers in a back to back. However, the 76'ers are on the top of roll right now that, no matter the situation, they are going to be a tough out for anyone. Philadelphia has now won 9 of its last 12 games and they've gone 10-2 ATS during this stretch. Also, Philly has covered 3 of its last 4 match-ups with the Bucks including winning in Milwaukee earlier this month. Though Joel Embiid is expected to miss again tonight, the Sixers got huge frontcourt production from Noel and Holmes last night and Okafor may be available tonight. Even though this a back to back spot for the Sixers they did have have a pair of off days prior to this and they have a non-conference game on deck. Even though the Sixers are off of a big upset win last night (over the Clippers) they have gone 9-5 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, the 76'ers are 12-6 ATS this season when playing against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS against Central Division opponents this season and Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Bucks also are a long-term 19-37 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Milwaukee is only 8-15 ATS this season against teams with a losing record and, off of a big win over Houston and with a tough match-up at Toronto on deck, the Bucks may struggle to fully focus on the Sixers in this one. Milwaukee was 2-8 ATS before their win and cover over the Rockets and this pointspread tonight is heavily inflated considering the way the 76'ers are playing right now. Also, only one player logged more than 29 minutes for Philly in last night's win over the Clippers. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-25-17 | Kings +11.5 v. Cavs | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Wednesday 8* Sacramento Kings (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - Everyone will be lining up on Cleveland here but, as is typical for my contrarian style, I like to be on the other side of what looks like a "must play" on the Cavaliers. The fact is that the Cavaliers are having struggles, as many teams do, when they are off of a championship season. It's just had to find that motivation or extra added edginess when you've already reached the top of the mountain. That said, I don't expect the Cavaliers to be too excited about facing a non-conference team with a 17-30 record that they already beat earlier this season and whom they swept last season. The Cavs are on a 2-9 ATS run and I expect them to get the win here but look for the margin to be single digits. The Kings are off of a road win, will be motivated by revenge here, have won 4 of their last 7 road games and gone 5-2 ATS in the process. The Cavs are 6-13 ATS against teams with a losing record this season. Cleveland is also 4-12 ATS when they are off of a non-conference game. It's just difficult for a team like the Cavs to "get up" for a game unless they are facing a team like the Warriors or Spurs or a top tier Eastern Conference foe. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. 8* SACRAMENTO |
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01-25-17 | Memphis v. Temple -1 | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #522 Wednesday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Memphis Tigers @ 6 ET - Temple has had a full week off after losing at #20 Cincinnati (a game which the Owls led at halftime). A week off can be problematic but not only did Temple need it (due to their tough start in conference action), they also have thrived in recent seasons when playing with extra rest. When the Owls enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games they have gone 6-1 ATS. The 6 days off since playing last Wednesday allowed Temple to focus on its most glaring weakness, defense, and they'll be ready to put forth a strong defensive effort here. The key guys in the Owls rotation include two guys who are at least 6'10 and three guys who are at least 6'7 and this size and length on defense will slow down a Memphis team that has been playing well. The problem for the Tigers is a match-up issue and Temple has covered 4 straight in this series. The Owls are fired up after letting the game against the Bearcats slip away and Temple is 5-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the Owls have a long-term mark of 17-5 (both SU and ATS!) when they are at home with a line ranging from pick'em to a -3. That said, the line on today's game is certainly in their sweet spot. Memphis is 8-21 SU (and 10-19 ATS) when they are an underdog and, as usual, the odds makers don't give away free money. Many will look at this game with the Tigers hot and the Owls not and they'll jump all over the road team. I look for the rejuvenated, refreshed, and refocused Owls to get the job done on their home floor. 8* TEMPLE |
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01-24-17 | Auburn +9.5 v. South Carolina | 69-98 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Tuesday 8* Auburn Tigers (+) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 6:30 ET - Auburn is making great strides in their 3rd year under head coach Bruce Pearl. Often it is the 3rd season where things start to click under a new coach and the veteran Pearl has this team playing quite well even though they rely heavily on freshmen. One of those is Danjel Purifoy who should be even stronger in his 2nd game back after returning from an ankle injury. Speaking of injuries, even though I do expect South Carolina's PJ Dozier to return for this one, he is unlikely to be 100% as he is recovering from back spasms that have hindered him. That means the Gamecocks will rely too heavily on Sindarius Thornwell. Even though he is off of a huge 34 point performance against Kentucky, South Carolina still lost by 16 points. The Gamecocks beat the Tigers by a dozen points at Auburn last season so this is a revenge game. The Tigers certainly have a good recent history here as Auburn has won 8 of the last 9 meetings (both SU and ATS) in South Carolina! Auburn is 3-2 SU (and 4-1 ATS) on the road this season. Also, the Tigers are 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 5-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. Off of back to back home wins (and having won 3 of their last 4 games overall), Auburn is a young team is quickly growing with confidence and is well-coach. Add those factors together and you have a revenge-seeking Tigers team that is going to give the Gamecocks all they can handle in this one. Grab the big points. 8* AUBURN |
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01-23-17 | Spurs v. Nets +12.5 | Top | 112-86 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Monday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - The Nets are hell-bent on turning things around and I like what I have been seeing from them. Brooklyn is coming off of a pair of road games where they won big at New Orleans (143-114) and then showed a lot of heart in their next game even though it was a back to back situation. After the big win over the Pelicans, the Nets visited Charlotte the next night and they got down huge early (not surprising given the rare road win the night before) but they battled all the way back to eventually take a lead in the 4th quarter. Granted the lead was brief but the resilience and mettle that Brooklyn showed in that game was something to take note of. I expect another huge effort from the Nets here and they are a big home dog to the Spurs so it is a perfect spot to take Brooklyn. While the Nets will be fully focused on this "opportunity" against one of the best teams in the NBA, it is a tough situational spot for the Spurs. They are off of their big OT win at Cleveland Saturday night and Kawhi Leonard logged a career-high 46 minutes in that game. In terms of team depth San Antonio is still without Pau Gasol and Tony Parker. The poor scheduling spot for the Spurs is because, not only did they beat the Cavs in OT Saturday, they have a trip to Toronto on deck to face the Raptors tomorrow. These are the types of games where coach Gregg Popovich will alter his playing rotations and minutes to make sure the Spurs have a lot left in the tank for the tough match-up with Toronto that is immediately on deck. San Antonio is likely to win this but only by single digits. 10* BROOKLYN |
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01-22-17 | Arizona State +8.5 v. USC | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona State Sun Devils (+) @ USC Trojans @ 8:30 ET - While this looks like a bounce back spot for Southern Cal, keep in mind two key factors. One is that USC has now lost 4 of 6 games after starting the season 14-0. In other words, reality is setting in that the Trojans were a little over-hyped. The second factor is that Southern Cal has a huge game on deck as they are hosting UCLA on Wednesday. That makes this spot a lookahead spot for USC. Though the Trojans played very well in non-conference action, the concern from them in Pac-12 action is they've been held under 42.2% in 6 of their 7 games. In 5 of those 6 the percentage was under 39.5%. Their home loss to Arizona Thursday was the 4th time in their last 7 games that they've been held under 37.4% from the field. USC is known for their defense but, in Pac-12 action, looking at their last 6 games they've allowed 45.5% or better in 4 of the 6 games. The Sun Devils have a dangerous offense that, prior to their Thursday loss at UCLA, had shot at least 45.7% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. Arizona State is going to challenge USC here because this is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions when it comes to scoring capabilities. The Sun Devils are averaging 80 points per game in conference games while the Trojans are averaging 68 points per game in Pac-12 action. Again, USC does have the better defense but the ASU offense is going to test them early and often and the Trojans will be in a dogfight just to try to win this game let alone cover the big spread. The Sun Devils are a long-term 26-13 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Trojans are on an overall 2-9 ATS run their last 11 games. 10* ARIZONA STATE |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
PA Insider Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET Sunday - New England knocked off Pittsburgh earlier this season but the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger in that game. I know it is difficult to knock the Patriots but, one thing I will say is that they sure got a fortunate match-up last week. The only reason Houston was in New England is because Oakland fell apart once they lost their QB. That is what allowed a Texas team with a nightmare (Osweiler) at QB to venture up to Foxboro. Finally, this week, New England will be tested and it could be tough on them as they have had so many easy match-ups since Tom Brady returned early this season after his 4-game suspension. The Pats rarely have been challenged and arguably, their toughest match-ups did not end up impressing. The Patriots, in addition to facing the Steelers at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger was on the shelf, had only two other truly tough games that were home games this season. In those, they lost to Seattle and they snuck by Baltimore by 7 points as a 6 point favorite. As usual, the Patriots are a public team and very few people will want to bet against Brady and coach Belichick in Foxboro in January. However, if any team can knock them off there, it is this Steelers team and they are healthy again at the skill positions and come into this game having won 9 straight games! Pittsburgh's defense has been phenomenal in their last 6 road games as they've allowed 310 yards or less in all 6 games. Of course the Steelers want revenge badly against the "mighty Pats" who always seem to find their way to the top and that only intensifies the defensive effort here. Keep in mind too that New England was okay without Rob Gronkowski for getting past a team like the Texans but facing the Steelers is a much tougher task! Pittsburgh has faced the tougher strength of schedule this season and the Patriots are in for a war in this one. I do expect the Steelers to win this one outright but I will, of course, grab all the available points as that is where the huge value is in this one, the generous points. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points Sunday evening |
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01-22-17 | Suns +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Shotgun Shellacking - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 6:05 ET - Many are likely to back the Raptors here as they look for the bounce back from Toronto after back to back ugly losses at Philly and Charlotte. However, the Raptors actually don't have a good history in spots like this. In fact, when off of a game where they scored 85 points or less, Toronto has gone 1-9 ATS the past 3 seasons. Also, the Raptors are hosting a Suns team that has been tough on them in recent meetings. Phoenix has won 3 of the last 5 meetings and they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games. The last 3 games have all been decided by 8 points or less. That said, there is significant line value with the large spread posted on this game. The Suns will be fired up for this game as they enter off of a double digit loss at Cleveland. Prior to that loss to the Cavs, Phoenix was on a 7-2 ATS run and had been playing some of their best basketball of the season with a 3-3 SU run where all 3 losses came by 5 points or less. The point is that the Suns have been playing ultra-competitive basketball and I don't foresee them getting blown out here. Phoenix is actually a solid 10-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Raptors are only 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games and only had 2 SU wins by more than 10 points during this stretch. In other words, laying points in the price range they are in today would have had Toronto on a 2-12 ATS run. Look for this game to be much closer than most are expecting. 10* PHOENIX |
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01-22-17 | Lakers v. Mavs -5.5 | 73-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - Dallas has a long winning streak going against the Lakers and that includes a perfect 2-0 already this season with both wins coming by a dozen points. Those games were both in LA and now the Mavericks will get the last two match-ups of the regular season series in Dallas. The set up here is perfect as the Lakers are off of an upset win versus Indiana while the Mavs are off of back to back losses. The Lakers have not won consecutive games in over 2 months so another win here is unlikely, especially given the Mavericks domination in this series. Also, Dallas will have extra hunger off of back to back losses as they had started to turn the corner with three straight victories. The Mavericks had been getting a little healthier and the loss of back-up point guard Jose Barea won't be nearly as impacting to the Mavs as what the Lakers are dealing with right now. They just lost starting point guard D'Angelo Russell to injury and they are 3-10 this season in games that he misses. He did not travel with the team for this game. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS (and 20-10 ATS long-term) in Sunday games while the Lakers are 13-35 SU (and 19-29 ATS) long-term in Sunday games. Grab the hungry home team in this one as LA drops to 1-4 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* DALLAS |
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01-22-17 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -8.5 | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #840 Sunday 8* Seton Hall Pirates (-) vs St John's Red Storm @ Noon ET - Nice set-up here as St John's is off of a rare win (followed 4 straight losses) and Seton Hall is off of 3 straight road losses (all against quality competition) and happy to be back home where they are a perfect 7-0 this season. Both teams are well rested as they haven't played since Monday and the Pirates are 7-1 ATS the past three seasons when they enter a game off of 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Seton Hall is also 3-0 ATS the past three seasons when they are a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Red Storm are just 1-3 ATS so far this month and are now 6-13 ATS in January games the past three seasons combined. The Pirates are outscoring teams by 18 points per game at home this season and playing well on both ends of the floor - knocking down 51.4% of their shots and holding opponents to 39.1%. In a spot where Seton Hall is desperate for a complete game with strong play on both ends of the floor, the Pirates should take this one by double digits. 8* SETON HALL |
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01-21-17 | Spurs v. Cavs -2 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
National TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET Saturday - The Cavaliers have won 2 of their last 3 games but those wins came against weak competition - the Suns and the Kings. The only game that really mattered to Cleveland was their game at Golden State and they got blown out in that game. The Cavaliers shot just 35% in that game while the Warriors knocked down 50.5% of their shots. On deck after this game for the Cavs is trio of three straight weak foes. The point is that Cleveland is absolutely going to go "all out" in this game against the Spurs after getting thoroughly embarrassed by Golden State earlier this week. The Cavs need an opponent against whom they can get a "statement win" and into Cleveland comes the 33-9 Spurs. The Cavaliers covered both meetings with San Antonio last season and the Spurs are without big man Pau Gasol (hand injury). Tony Parker is also dealing with an ankle injury. This game means A LOT to Cleveland given the recent circumstances and they were able to "rest up" in their blowout win over the Suns Thursday. The Cavs have gone 9-4 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Spurs are off of a "miracle cover" against the short-handed Nuggets Thursday as the way the last few minutes played out was rather "miraculous" for Spurs backers. Now they face a tough test on the road and San Antonio had failed to cover 3 of their last 4 before sneaking out a cover versus Denver. This game means more to the Cavs who are out to redeem themselves against a Western Conference power after the embarrassment at Golden State. 10* CLEVELAND |
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01-21-17 | Wyoming +8 v. New Mexico | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #659 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) @ New Mexico Lobos @ 8 ET - The road team has gotten the cash in 6 of the Lobos last 7 games so certainly home court has meant very little. New Mexico is off of back to back road wins but they shot the ball extremely well in those games (including from three point land) and they can't maintain that type of clip long-term. The Lobos now face a team that plays much better defense than they do. The Cowboys are allowing just 39.5% from the field and 29.8% from beyond the arc while New Mexico is allowing 43.5% and 38.2%, respectively. Wyoming also heads into this game with confidence off of a big road win and their match-ups with the Lobos have been tight as the Cowboys are known for giving them tough games. Overall, the last 3 match-ups between these teams have been decided by a TOTAL of only 6 points so that's an average of just 2 points per game and yet this line currently sits at an 8. Also, New Mexico is only 1-5 ATS at home this season and also only 1-5 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s. Conversely, the Cowboys have thrived in games projected to be high-scoring as they are 6-3 ATS this season in games where the posted total is in the 150s. Wyoming is also 6-3 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Cowboys have been better on the boards this season than the Lobos with a 39-34 edge in rebounding. Look for another close game between these rivals and that means excellent line value with the big points. 10* WYOMING plus the big points Saturday evening |
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01-21-17 | Marquette v. Creighton -5 | 102-94 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #572 Saturday 8* Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2:30 ET - The big news for Creighton was, of course, the tragic loss of star guard Maurice Watson to a season-ending injury in their win over Xavier earlier this week. However, I fully expect the Bluejays to respond in a big way today just like they did in the 2nd half of the game against Musketeers knowing that Watson was not available. So often, in the first game after a team loses a star player, that team becomes a "play on" team. That's because everyone else "ups their game" to try and make up for the absence and I expect that to be the case again here with Creighton and the Watson situation. The Bluejays really showed a lot in the way they "hung tough" against Xavier after Watson got hurt. Keep in mind that game was on the road too. Now Creighton is at home and their hosting a Golden Eagles team that is only 2-5 away from home this season. The Bluejays are still an 18-1 team and I feel this is a very reasonable number to lay with Creighton on their home floor. Marquette has allowed teams to hit 51% against them in road games this season and, keep in mind, the Bluejays are shooting 53% in home games this season! The Creighton defense is also much better at defending the 3-ball than the Golden Eagles are and this one could get ugly in a hurry. The Bluejays, when knocking down shots at home, really get a huge crowd edge going and teams just collapse against a Creighton team just lighting up the scoreboard. That is the type of game I expect here as the Bluejays rally after the Watson injury. Marquette is 3-7 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and the Golden Eagles are 6-14 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. The Bluejays are 11-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record and they owe the Eagles some payback after a home loss to Marquette last season. 8* CREIGHTON minus the points Saturday afternoon |
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01-21-17 | Georgia +4.5 v. Texas A&M | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Saturday - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (+) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ Noon ET - This line has gone from an opener as low as -1.5 on the Aggies to now having Texas A & M favored by 4.5 points as of 9:30 AM ET. I'll take the value! A & M has gone 1-5 SU and ATS in conference action. Also, the Aggies are 3-8 SU (and 2-8 ATS) in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Bulldogs are on a 6-2 ATS run as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points and also are 36-20 ATS against teams with a winning record. Georgia will be looking to avenge an ugly home loss last season (lost by 34 to the Aggies) and I expect them to come out fired up and ready to demoralize an Aggies team that has scored 68 points or less in 5 of its last 6 games. This A & M team is fragile right now while the Bulldogs have covered 3 straight games and have scored 69 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. 8* GEORGIA plus the points early Saturday |
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01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
CBS Sports Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #885 Friday 10* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Akron Zips @ 6:30 ET - Akron has a long home winning streak going with 26 straight wins at Rhodes Arena. Not surprisingly, after opening up at a -5, this line has jumped up to a -6 on the Zips and certainly could move higher. This is offering tremendous line value to a revenge-seeking Eastern Michigan team. The Eagles were knocked out of the MAC Tourney by Akron last spring and the perfect revenge would be to put an end to the Zips 26-game home winning streak. This is a veteran Eastern Michigan team that also has a solid backcourt. With strong guard play and, the fact that the Eagles play better defense than the Zips, an upset here would certainly not be a complete surprise. Eastern Michigan is holding opponents to 40.9% from the field and 32.8% from three point land. Akron has allowed 44.0% and 35.6%, respectively, in those same categories. The Eagles are averaging 82 points per game compared to 79 points per game for the Zips. Talk around Akron is already about where the Zips would fit into the Big Dance seedings, etc. I am not saying it is too early for that but I am saying that Eastern Michigan is likely to prove to be the hungrier team here after being knocked out of the conference tourney in March by these Zips. Also, Akron comes into this one a little over-confident because of their lengthy home winning streak. Note that the Zips are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Eastern Michigan is on a solid 5-2 ATS run when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game this season. I am looking for an upset but certainly grabbing all the points I can get here. 10* Top Play EASTERN MICHIGAN plus the points very early Friday evening |
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01-19-17 | Nuggets +12.5 v. Spurs | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET Thursday - Good spot for an upset here and the fact is that if the Nuggets do fall short of the big upset win, they should keep this one to single digits. Denver is seeking revenge for one of their most embarrassing home losses of the season as they got drilled 127-99 in Colorado exactly two weeks ago. In that game, San Antonio had their best shooting night of the season with 56.7% from the field including 50% (12 of 24) from three point land. The Spurs are just 2-2 in their last 4 games and their most recent win came by just 8 points as they were definitely challenged by Minnesota Tuesday. San Antonio has now failed to cover 3 of its last 4 games and they have a huge game on deck as Saturday they are in Cleveland for their first shot of the season at the World Champion Cavaliers. It will be hard for the Spurs, as disciplined as they are, to be able to avoid at least peeking ahead to the Cavs. The Nuggets will be the hungrier and more focused team tonight and Denver didn't have power forward Kenneth Faried in the meeting two weeks ago. He's scored 15 points or more in 3 straight games and the Nuggets have won and covered all 3 games. Denver is full of confidence coming into this game having knocked down 57% of their shots in their last 3 games. The Nuggets also have dominated the glass over their last four games. Denver is 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. The Nuggets are also 8-4 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Ride the revenging dog in this one as they will surprise the Spurs with how far they've come in the 2 weeks since these teams last met. 10* DENVER plus the big points Thursday |
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01-19-17 | Maryland +2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Thursday - 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - The very first lines to come out on this game had the Terps as a 1.5 point favorite. From that point forward the line has now moved a full 4 points as the Terrapins are now a 2.5 point underdog in this match-up. I love to fade moves like this where the game swings strongly and I see great line value here with a solid 16-2 Maryland team. The only two losses the Terps have this season came against Pittsburgh and a 2-point defeat versus Nebraska. The point is that at +2.5 in all game this season the Terrapins would have a 16-1 ATS record. Couple that with the fact that the Hawkeyes are being a bit over-rated here, and you have fantastic line value. Iowa has managed to 'rise up' on a couple of occasions and get big home wins over Iowa State and Purdue. However, this Hawkeyes team is, overall, certainly not at the level of prior Iowa teams. The Hawkeyes are coming off of an 89-54 demolishing defeat at Northwestern. Though many will look for the bounce back here, the fact is that it was the 5th time in the last 6 games that Iowa has allowed 78 points or more! This is in stark contrast with a Maryland team that has only allowed more than 75 points a single time in 18 games this season! The Terrapins are allowing just 65 points per game this season while the Hawkeyes are giving up 78 points per game this season. Maryland is a perfect 6-0 away from home this season. The Terrapins are also a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in their games as an underdog this season. The Hawkeyes are 3-9 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and Iowa is also an ugly 1-5 ATS when off of a game where they scored 60 points or less. I'll gladly challenge this over-rated team to try and bounce back here because they've proven unable to do just that time and time again in recent seasons as you can see from those ATS numbers. 10* MARYLAND plus the points Thursday |
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01-18-17 | TCU v. Texas Tech -4.5 | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #540 Wednesday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 7:30 ET - It is very hard to beat a team 3 times in one season and the Red Raiders found that out the hard way last season and now it's time for some payback. Texas Tech won both regular season meetings with Texas Christian University last season but then got knocked out of the Big 12 conference tourney in March when the Horned Frogs prevailed in their 3rd (and, of course, most important) meeting of the season. The Red Raiders had 63 shots from the field compared to just 47 for the Horned Frogs but TCU hit a ridiculous 10 of 21 from three point land and that was the difference in the victory which came by a margin of only 5 points. A repeat here is unlikely as TCU has not shot the ball particularly well from beyond the arc in its last 4 games. What strengthens this situation though is the fact that the Horned Frogs are off of back to back wins but one was at home and one was at downtrodden Texas. The Red Raiders will prove to be the hungrier team here as they are off of a loss (albeit on the road) and they haven't forgotten what happened in their meeting with TCU last March. Before the Red Raiders loss at Oklahoma Saturday, Texas Tech had won 13 of 16 games this season. The Red Raiders are 38-9 at home the past three seasons including a perfect 11-0 this season. The Horned Frogs are only 2-2 on the road this season and have lost 20 of 25 road games the past three seasons combined. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, TCU has gone 1-3 ATS while, as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, Texas Tech has gone 5-1 ATS. The Red Raiders are averaging 82.5 points per game at home this season while the Horned Frogs are averaging only 69.8 points per game on the road so far this season. Home court makes a big difference in this particular match-up and, from a situational perspective, it doesn't get much better than this! 8* TEXAS TECH |
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01-18-17 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET Wednesday - The Wizards have won 12 straight home games and yet they're only laying 3 points in this one in Washington. It is "interesting" to say the least and I am calling for the upset here. The Wizards were simply on fire with their shooting from the opening tip in their big MLK day victory over Portland. Washington knocked down a ridiculous 9 of 13 three pointers to begin the game. The Wizards have been hot from three point land but they now face a Memphis team that is known for its defense and is coming off of a loss. The Grizzlies will be hungry here after catching an earful from their head coach due to poor defense both in the 2nd and 4th quarters of their most recent game - a home loss to Chicago. Prior to that defeat, Memphis had won 3 of their last 4 games and that included road wins at Houston and Golden State! If the Grizzlies can get road wins against the Rockets and Warriors, they certainly can knock off the Wizards. In fact, Washington is 1-5 ATS (and 0-6 SU!) in their games against Southwest Division opponents this season. Memphis is allowing only 99 points per game this season while the Wizards are allowing 106 points per game. The Grizzlies are holding opponents to 43.5% from the field while Washington is allowing 46.5% from the field. The Grizz have gone 39-25 (SU and ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. 10* MEMPHIS |
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01-17-17 | Raptors -11 v. Nets | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 Tuesday - Normally the only concern in a game like this is that Toronto would not be motivated and may overlook Brooklyn. However, that is unlikely to happen for two reasons. For one thing, tomorrow's Raptors opponent is the 76'ers so certainly there is no concern about Toronto looking ahead to a match-up with another team near the bottom of their division. Secondly, the Raptors lost their most recent road game and, in fact, have lost 4 of their last 5 road games. This ensures the proper focus from Toronto here and this is a Raptors team that is a perfect 8-0 in divisional games this season and has produced a 7-1 ATS mark in those games. Toronto is an overall 19-7 in their last 26 games and their average margin of victory in those 19 wins is 16 points! The Raptors are well known for their blowout wins and I just don't see the Nets being able to hang around in this one. Recently Brooklyn has had some winnable home games against teams like the Sixers and Pelicans and yet they've still ended up getting crushed in those games. They are struggling from three point land, their defense has been pathetic, and they have also been losing the battle of the boards. This will continue to be an issue tonight as they are clearly out-classed in this match-up and the Raptors have added focus on the road due to recent losses away from home. Toronto is 11-3 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Raptors also are 4-2 ATS when on the road and favored in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. The Nets are 0-7 in divisional games this season and have covered only 2 of those games. After being obliterated by Houston in their most recent game, note that Brooklyn is 3-11 ATS when off of a non-conference game. 10* TORONTO |
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01-17-17 | Arkansas +4.5 v. Texas A&M | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Tuesday - 8* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 7 ET - The Aggies most recent home game was a ridiculous result. They blew out LSU by 30 points as everything they threw up seemed to go in while the Tigers couldn't seem to hit the broad side of a barn in that game. That did bring Texas A & M to 7-2 at home this season. However, if you look closely at the Aggies, they have lost almost every single game where more of a challenge is presented and tonight they are hosting a 13-4 Arkansas team. Note that A & M's wins this season have, all but one, come when they were a big favorite or facing an opponent that was so overmatched it wasn't even a lined game. The Aggies have 9 wins this season. 4 of them were non-lined games, 4 were when they were favored by 12 points or more. Only "impressive" win was a 3-point win over Virginia Tech as a 2 point favorite. With the Hokies game included that makes the Aggies 1-7 straight-up in games where they are either a dog or a favorite of less than 12 points! Now you can see why I like the Razorbacks here. Every time but one this season, when the Aggies take a step up in level of competition, they lose. They are off of a loss at Mississippi State Saturday and now host an Arkansas team that is off of a big win over Missouri Saturday and that has gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4 games where the line was single digits. The Aggies simply lost too much from last season's team but with this line already moving up from a -3 on A & M to now a -4.5 as of gameday morning, it is evident that the betting markets still like this Texas A & M team. I don't and I look for them to drop to 2-8 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. 8* ARKANSAS |
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01-17-17 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Early ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - Oftentimes in rivalry games I like to side with the dogs but this one sets up much differently than most and, as a result, I expect the favorite to win this one in an absolute blowout. The I-75 rivalry in Northeast Ohio between Toledo and Bowling Green resumes tonight and both the Rockets and Falcons are off of back to back losses. However, that is where the similarities between these teams end! The Falcons were at home for both of their games and yet they got completely obliterated by a combined 45 points in those games. The Bowling Green coach is trying to blame it on poor defense because they emphasized offense too much but the fact is their offense only averaged 52.5 points per game so I think he's a little out of touch with his own team here. The problem for BG is they are 1-6 on the road this season and now take on a Toledo team that is 7-1 at home on the season and whose back to back losses entering this match-up both came on the road. Unlike the Falcons, the Rockets did score well in their two defeats (81 points per game!) but they were done in by some hot shooting from their opponents. Look for Toledo (averaging 82.6 points per game on the season) to bounce back in a big way here at home. It is much easier to play at home coming off B2B road losses than to be on the road after B2B home losses. The place will be rocking in Toledo tonight and the Rockets haven't lost here against Bowling Green in 5 years! The Falcons are 9-19 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when, past the midway point of the season, they are facing a team with a winning record. The Rockets are 21-5 SU and 12-9 ATS against teams with a losing record the past 3 seasons combined and everyone is talking about how important this home game is in this rivalry series. 10* Top Play TOLEDO |
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01-16-17 | Providence +6.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 74-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Primetime TV Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #543 Monday - 10* Top Play Providence Friars (+) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 9 ET - Georgetown has won two straight games but it certainly is nothing to be too excited about as Hoyas fans know all too well. These two wins came against St John's (one of the worst teams in their conference) and then against UConn (a non-conference win). Georgetown was not impressive in their win by a slim margin over the Huskies and now they certainly face a much tougher challenge today and yet many have backed the Hoyas here. The line jumped from an opener of -5 up to a -6.5 and I'll gladly grab the added value here on the underdog in a game where I don't even expect I'll need the points. Keep in mind, Georgetown is only 1-4 in Big East action this season and Providence has won 5 straight games in this series. The Friars recorded the 2-0 sweep each of the past two seasons over the Hoyas and then already beat them in Providence early this month to get this year's season series started off on the right foot. The Friars are 8-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season while Georgetown is the polar opposite at 4-8 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Hoyas are 0-3 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s this season and also are 0-4 ATS when playing with road loss revenge. With their poor performance at the betting window against winning teams, I don't see any reason for things to change here as the Friars come into this one fired up about losing their last road game by a single point. That hunger will show on the floor here as they seek back to back wins in Big East action which they know is critical to moving back up the standings. 10* PROVIDENCE |
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01-16-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 91-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
TNT Top Game - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET Monday - Revenge spots don't get much better than this. Not only did the Cavs when 3 straight to rally back from a 3-1 series deficit and take the NBA Championship from the Warriors last June, they then snuck out a 1-point win on Christmas Day about 3 weeks ago in Cleveland. Now the Cavaliers are in Golden State to face a fired up Warriors team that his its sight set on big-time revenge on their home court. Even though the Cavs are off of a win at Sacramento, they came into that game having lost 3 of their last 5 games. The only two wins for Cleveland in that stretch came against Brooklyn (worst team in NBA) and Phoenix (least wins in the Western Conference). That said, the Cavaliers aren't exactly playing impressive ball of late and, in fact, enter tonight's game on a 2-8 ATS run. Off of that win over the Kings, note that Cleveland is an ugly 3-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. The Warriors are 34-6 on the season and 11 of their last 12 wins have come by 8 points or more. Golden State is also 32-17 ATS their last 49 games when playing with revenge. The Warriors also are a stellar 16-7 ATS in home games where they are favored in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Indeed, the "price is right" here with the home fave and I'll gladly lay the points Monday evening. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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01-16-17 | Blazers +4.5 v. Wizards | 101-120 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 2:05 ET Monday - The Wizards are off of an easy win over Philly where they caught the Sixers in a tough scheduling spot and Philly's best player, Joel Embiid sat out because it was a back to back spot. Prior to this win Washington had failed to cover 4 of its last 6 games. They now host a rested Trail Blazers team that has been off since Friday. The Blazers failed to cover in a tight home loss against Orlando and they've had this 4-game road trip (begins today) circled as an opportunity to get back on track and build a winning streak. Prior to the loss to the Magic, the Trail Blazers had been playing better and were on a 7-2 ATS run. Coming off of a loss, Portland will prove to be the hungrier team here. The Wizards are only 5-7 ATS in non-conference games this season and also 1-3 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Blazers have a long-term mark of 183-111 SU when off of a SU loss as a favorite and they'll be in bounce back mode here plus catching a handful of points. Also, the Trail Blazers are 21-14 SU and ATS the past 3 seasons when they enter a game with two days of rest between games. The Blazers are also 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4 games against the Wizards. More of the same early Monday afternoon. 8* PORTLAND |
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01-16-17 | Creighton +4 v. Xavier | 72-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator FS-1 - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Monday - 8* Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 2 ET - The Bluejays are 17-1 this season. Xavier is now 13-4 this season and off of back to back losses. Those two defeats came as they had to "step up" in terms of level of competition and, on Monday afternoon they are certainly doing that again as the Musketeers take on a "stacked" Creighton team with revenge on its mind. Even though the Bluejays have covered 4 straight meetings with the Musketeers, they have suffered a straight-up loss in 2 of their last 3 meetings. Xavier's Edmond Sumner is expected to play here but his shoulder is not 100% and that could be a factor here. The Musketeers are hosting a Bluejays team that is hitting a ridiculous 53.5% of their shots this season including 41% from three point land. A ton of points expected in this one (as you can tell from the big total posted on this game) and Creighton is 7-2 ATS this season (and 20-7 ATS the past 3 seasons combined) in games with a posted total in the 150s! Xavier's defense has not been impressive of late as they've allowed their last 4 opponents to average about 50% from the field and the Musketeers are off of a 2nd straight loss (83-78 at Butler). Xaviers is 5-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Everyone is lining up on the home team here and I'll gladly take the contrarian side with this 17-1 team Monday afternoon. 8* CREIGHTON |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
AFC Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET Sunday - Of course one has to respect the Chiefs and their 12-4 record but Kansas City benefited greatly from a positive turnover margin and because their special teams play is very strong. However, Pittsburgh is the stronger overall team and that should punch the Steelers ticket to the AFC Championship Game by the time this one is in the books. The Steelers, based on yardage, rank 7th in the league on offense and 12th in the league on defense. By comparison, the Chiefs rank 20th on offense and 24th on defense. Now you can see why the special teams and turnover margin have been such huge keys for the Chiefs this season. Now look for KC to be exposed by a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Steelers already hammered the Chiefs 43 to 14 in the regular season and Pittsburgh enters this game having won 8 straight games. The Steelers offensive weaponry finally has "all hands on deck" and, in the 2nd straight game with everyone available (all skilled position starters) it is probable that Pittsburgh will prove to be even tougher to stop than they were last week against Miami. The Chiefs get a lot of "line shading" here because of their history at Arrowhead Stadium but note that Kansas City went an ugly 1-4 ATS in their home games against non-divisional foes this season! Also, the Chiefs are a long-term 2-11 ATS in playoff games. I am also well-aware of Andy Reid's long-term history of success when off of a bye week but the Steelers are the superior team on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs truly got here with some "smoke and mirrors" this season. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH Sunday night |
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01-15-17 | Packers +6 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:40 ET - Most people aren't giving the Packers a chance here and I realize they do have some injury issues, particularly in the secondary, that are impacting here. However, what many people don't realize is that the "anointed one" with the Cowboys is really Ezekiel Elliott rather than Dak Prescott. Dallas is where they are today because they have a powerful running game and because certainly the ball bounced their way on a number of occasions (particularly early this season) that helped give them the momentum and confidence to get this point. The fact is that all the success that came from those two factors has masked the fact that their passing attack ranks just 23rd in the league. For comparison sake, note that the Packers passing attack ranks 7th in the league. Also, the Green Bay run defense ranks 9th so that matches up well with the Cowboys ground attack which ranks 2nd in the league. As for the Cowboys the concern on defense is their pass defense which ranks 26th in the league. The way I am approaching this game is have a veteran QB (Aaron Rodgers) who has plenty of weapons even with WR Jordy Nelson out, and he's attack a weak pass defense. I have a strong ground defense (Packers) that can focus on slowing down Elliott. I'll challenge the rookie QB (Prescott) to beat Green Bay through the air because, let's not forget, this is his first ever playoff game and he is facing a team that already saw him earlier this season and certainly is fired up about the rematch. The Packers have won 7 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cowboys have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 games and yet they are the popular choice here as this line is now all the way up to a 6 as of the night before the game. The Packers are on an 8-3 ATS run when playing with revenge. The Cowboys aren't exactly a "covering machine" at home and, in fact, are on an 11-21 ATS run in games played on turf. 10* GREEN BAY plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Saturday Night Special - Rickenbach NFL 8* Houston Texans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - No one will give the Texans a chance here and I completely understand that, and yet, it has given us very strong line value on Houston in this match-up. Even though hosting a wounded Oakland team last week is nothing like facing a powerful Patriots team in New England, last week's win did quite a lot for Houston. It gives the Texans added confidence in QB Brock Osweiler and it allowed the defense to stay "in the zone" as Houston's D continues to be among the most dominating units in the league. That said, and especially with consideration to the factor that Rob Gronkowski is out, I don't buy into the Pats being more than two TD's better than the Texans. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Texans go ripped by New England earlier this season and that Tom Brady didn't even play in that game. However, that was a turnover-fueled victory for the Patriots. Houston turned the ball over 3 times (compared to 0 for the Pats) and that was a key factor in why New England won 27-0 at Houston despite the yardage being very nearly equal! In fact, the Texans have now held the Patriots to 313 yards or less in each of the last 2 meetings and it helps that this will be their third time seeing New England in the past 13 months. The Pats, as a result of being 13-3 ATS this season, are simply over-priced here. The Texans defense is fired up about this chance at redemption against the Patriots and the offense is rejuvenated thanks to 4 wins in their last 5 games and Osweiler looking like he definitely learned a few things after being relegated to back-up duty. In the divisional round, #1 seeds have gone just 7-19 ATS the last 13 years. The Pats, of course, are the #1 seed in the AFC, and they have no reason to try and "run up the score" here and against a solid Texans defense I doubt they'll even have the chance. Grab the huge points as this Texans team come into this one with some newfound confidence and a defense that, deservedly, has a swagger in its step! 8* HOUSTON plus the big points Saturday evening |