Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-15-16 | A's v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 7.5) I really like the value we are getting with this total between the Rays and A's on Sunday. Oakland will have their ace Sonny Gray on the mound, who is coming off back-to-back bad outings. That is definitely playing a part in this high total, but I believe he poised for a big bounce back performance. He's definitely got the stuff and he's pitched well against the Rays in his career, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 5 starts. Tampa Bay will give the ball to Matt Moore, who has pitched well for the most part this season. Moore has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his 7 starts. UNDER is 12-1 in the Rays 13 games this season after a win, 16-4 in their last 20 against a right-handed starter and 14-5 in their last 19 at home. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-12-16 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (Under 8) I'm taking the UNDER in Thursday's total between the Padres and Brewers. The books have simply set the mark too high for today's pitching matchup. San Diego will send out their ace James Shields, who despite a 1-5 record has a 3.60 ERA with 5 quality starts in 7 appearances. Milwaukee will give the ball to their ace in Jimmy Nelson, who has been especially tough to score on at home. Nelson is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his last 12 outings at Miller Park. It's also worth pointing out that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Padres last 11 after playing 2 or more consecutive games on the road. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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05-11-16 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 5-6 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
40* MLB Over/Under Total Dominator (UNDER 7) Today's matchup between the Rays and Mariners has a pitchers duel written all over it. Tampa Bay will send out their ace Chris Archer, who has been lights out of late. Archer has a 0.96 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been dominant in the early goings of 2016. Walker owns a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 6 starts. Walker has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in an outing this year. UNDER is 15-3 in the Rays' 18 games this season against a right-handed starter and 5-0-1 in Walker's last 6 starts. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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05-10-16 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
40* MLB Late Night Total No Brainer (Mets/Dodgers UNDER 7.5) The books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Dodgers and Mets. New York will send out one of their talented youngsters in Jacob deGrom, who has a 1.99 ERA in 4 starts. The Dodgers will give the ball to Alex Wood, who is keeping this total higher than it should be. Wood has a 5.18 ERA and 1.485 WHIP overall in 6 starts, but owns a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his 2 starts at home. The Mets are also scoring just 2.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-03-16 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total No Brainer (Red Sox/White Sox UNDER 8) Two of baseballs most efficient starters will face off on Tuesday in Chicago and my money is on this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston's Steven Wright has a 1.37 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 4 starts, while the White Sox's Jose Quintana has a 1.47 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 5 starts. Quintana has yet to allow a run at home this season and has given up zero runs in his last 2 starts overall. UNDER is 25-9 in Chicago's last 34 home games after a win and 14-2 in Quintana's last 16 starts after 2 or more wins. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-27-16 | White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
40* MLB Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 8) The fact that this game is being played at Toronto's Rogers Centre has created some great value here on the total, as the books have inflated this line because of where the game is being played. What matters is the starting pitching matchup and we have a good one here with Jose Quintana going up against Marco Estrada. Quintana has a 1.82 ERA and 1.094 WHIP over 4 starts and Estrada enters with a 2.50 ERA in 3 starts and has yet to allow a run at home. UNDER is 12-3 in Estrada's last 15 starts after a loss and 13-2 in Quintana's last 15 starts after 2 or more wins. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-24-16 | Orioles v. Royals OVER 9 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (OVER 9) There's a reason the books have set a big number here on the total in the series finale between the Orioles and Royals. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left at around 20 mph. Normal pop flies are going to turn into home runs and I look for both teams to put big numbers on the scoreboard. It certainly helps that we have two offenses that are more than capable of scoring runs in bunches. Baltimore comes in averaging 6.0 runs/game on the road and have power hitters littered throughout their lineup. The Royals on the other hand should be able to take advantage of the Orioles' Mike Wright, who comes in with a 5.73 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. Wright has made one career start against KC and allowed 4 runs in just 5 innings of work. Give me the OVER 9! |
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04-19-16 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8 | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 8) I really like the value here with the total in Tuesday's series opener between the Royals and Tigers. Detroit's Shane Greene was sharp in his first outing, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 6 innings at Pittsburgh and has a 0.69 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City will send out Yordano Ventura, who has a 2.45 ERA in 2 starts, allowing just 3 runs on 6 hits in 11 innings of work. In Ventura's last two starts against Detroit, he's allowed just 1 run on 7 hits with 19 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-13-16 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 7.5) While this isn't a high-profile pitching matchup, I don't expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one. The Phillies will be sending out Jerad Eickhoff, who didn't have his best stuff and still only gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Keep in mind Eickhoff allowed just 3 earned runs over his final 4 starts of 2015 and pitched at least 7 innings in all 4 outings. He takes on a San Diego offense that has already been shutout 4 times this season. The Padres give the ball to Colin Rea, who was tagged for 5 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in his first start, but that came at Coors Field against the Rockies. I look for a big bounce back performance here from Rea against the soft-hitting Phillies. Philadelphia has scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their first 8 games and are hitting just .224 as a team. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-09-16 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 7 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
40* MLB Blockbuster Total Crusher (UNDER 7) I look for a low scoring game here between the Rangers and Angels. Both teams will send out their aces in this one. Both pitched well in their first start, but the real key here is how they have dominated the opposing team in this series. Cole Hamels has a 2.81 ERA and 0.688 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Angels, while Garrett Richards has a 2.98 ERA and 1.237 WHIP over 14 starts against the Rangers. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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10-27-15 | New York Mets v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
50* MLB --World Series Grand Slam Total Top Play-- (UNDER 7) I think the best value here in Game 1 is to the total and for this one to finish under 7 combined runs. This has a pitcher's duel written all over it with Matt Harvey taking the mound for New York and the Royals countering with Edison Volguez. Harvey has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his postseason starts and will have an advantage here with this being the first time he's gone up against Kansas City. Volquez hasn't been great in 2 road starts during the postseason, but was lights out in his only home start against the Blue Jays, allowing just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings. With both offenses having not faced live pitching in at least 3 days, I look for Harvey and Volquez to have the upper hand in this one. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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10-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
40* MLB --Playoffs Total Crusher-- (UNDER 7.5) This will be starting pitching rematch of Game 2, which the Royals won 6-3. While that game finished with 9 runs, more than the total set here, it was a 3-0 game going into the bottom of the 7th inning before David Price allowed 5 runs after giving up 1 run in the first 6 innings. With the series moving back to KC, where they will play in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Staduium, I don't see either team putting up a lot of runs in a crucial Game 6. UNDER is 22-9-3 in the Royals last 34 home games against a team with a winning record. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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10-14-15 | Texas Rangers v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
50* MLB --Grand Slam Total Top Play-- (Under 8) While these two teams have combined for 8 or more runs in 3 of the first 4 games of this series, I just think there's too much value here on the UNDER 8 to pass up. Cole Hamels and Marcus Stroman will be facing off in Game 5, which is a rematch from Game 2 in Toronto. Only 5 earned runs were scored in regulation of that game, but 3 unearned runs and 2 more in extra innings pushed the final score to 10. Both Hamels and Stroman pitched well in that game, which is no surprise given how they finished the season. With all the pressure that comes in a deciding Game 5, I'm not expecting a ton of offense in this one. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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09-30-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
50* MLB --Grand Slam Total Top Play-- (Under 7.5) Both of these teams have been struggling offensively down the stretch. The Royals have scored a total of 5 runs over their last 3 games and haven't registered double-digit hits in 5 straight. Hard to seem them getting back on track against the red-hot Jose Quintana, who has a 1.35 ERA and 1.050 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Chicago's offense is only averaging 2.6 runs and are hitting .213 as a team over their last 7 games and will be going up against a starter they have really struggled against. Kansas City's Edinson Volquez has a 1.67 ERA in 4 starts against the White Sox this season. UNDER is 9-1 in White Sox last 10 home games after hitting .225 or worse over a 10 game stretch. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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09-28-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
40* MLB -Total Crusher-- (Under 8.5) This is a great spot and price to back the under in Monday's matchup between the Tigers and Rangers. Detroit's Justin Verlander has been back to his old ways. He's got a 3.49 ERA and sensational 1.080 WHIP over 18 starts. He's been much better of late and comes in with a 2.70 ERA and 0.980 WHIP over 7 road starts. Texas will give the ball to Colby Lewis, who has a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP over his last 3 starts. I just don't see either offense putting up a big number and with this high total I'll take my chances. Give me the Under 8.5! |
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09-22-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
50* MLB --Grand Slam Total Top Play-- (Under 8) This has a pitchers duel written all over it and we are getting a great number here to back the under. Cleveland's Danny Salazar has a 3.47 ERA and 1.117 WHIP over 27 starts and was dominant last time out against the Tigers, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings. He's faced the Twins twice this season and allowed just 3 runs in 13 innings with 21 strikeouts. Minnesota's Ervin Santana enters with a sizzling 2.05 ERA and 1.091 WHIP over his last 3 starts, allowing just 5 runs on 16 hits with 22 strikeouts in 22 innings. UNDER is 30-19 in the Indians 49 road night games this season and 38-17-1 in their last 56 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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09-18-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL KNOCKOUT* (Under 7.5) Tyler Wilson vs Drew Smyly might not seem like a pitchers duel, but that's exactly what I'm expecting in this one. Wilson has made 2 starts and allowed just 2 runs in each outing. Smyly is a known commodity and looks to be back in form after missing a big chunk of the season with an injury. In his last outing, which was at home against a strong Red Sox offense, he tossed 6 scoreless innings, allowing just 4 hits and racking up 11 strikeouts. Under is 13-3 in Rays last 16 games off a 1-run loss to a division rival and 13-4 in Orioles last 17 road games with OBP of .260 or worse over their last 3. ROLL THE UNDER 7.5! |
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09-15-15 | Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* (UNDER 9) I believe the books have made a big mistake here with this total, as it's been slightly inflated due to the fact that both starters are coming off a poor showing. Even with the bad outings, both have thrown the ball extremely well of late. Houston's McHugh has a 3.26 ERA and 1.190 WHIP over his last 3 starts and Texas' Derek Holland has a 2.25 ERA and 0.792 WHIP over his last 3 starts. McHugh is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA over 3 starts against the Rangers and Holland has allowed just 7 runs in 22 1/3 innings over 4 home starts. ROLL THE UNDER 9! |
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08-31-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Really like the value we are getting here with the total set at 7.5 runs. Not only do we have two strong starters on the mound in Chris Archer and Wei-Yen Chen, but both offenses are struggling at the moment. The Rays have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5, while the Orioles are averaging just 2.9 runs/game over their last 7. Archer is poised for a bounce back start after giving up 4 runs in his last outing at home against the Twins (complete game shutout prior to that start) and Chen enters with a 2.89 ERA in his last 3. UNDER is 21-9 in Chen's last 30 home starts and 13-3 in the Rays last 16 road games after going 5 straight games with fewer than 10 hits. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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08-29-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Should be all kinds of offense in this one, as both teams will be sending out starters who have really struggled of late. Cincinnati will give the rock to Keyvius Sampson, who has a 8.03 ERA and 2.433 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee counters with Matt Garza and his 7.56 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in his last 3 outings. It's not just recent form where both of these guys have struggled. Sampson has a 5.79 ERA and 1.757 WHIP overall and Garza has a 5.52 ERA and 1.522 WHIP overall. OVER is 6-1 in Cincinnati's last 7 against a team with a losing record and 9-1-1 in Garza's last 11 home starts against a team with a losing record. Roll the OVER 8.5! |
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08-28-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value here with this total set at 7.5. Angels' starter Andrew Heaney is coming off an ugly showing at home against the Blue Jays, but Toronto's offense is simply that good. Heaney has been rock-solid otherwise, as he owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 11 starts. A big key here is the fact that he has a 2.13 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 4 road starts. Cleveland will send out Danny Salazar, who has a 2.84 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 22-12 in LA's last 34 after a win by 2 runs or less and 20-10 in the Indians last 30 against the AL West. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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08-26-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL TOTAL OF THE YEAR* Love the value here with this total and more than willing to pay a little extra juice to get 7. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer is coming off a complete game shutout in his last outing and is 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Twins. Minnesota will send out Tyler Duffey, who has looked sharp in his last 2 after giving up 6 runs in 2 innings at Toronto in his MLB debut. Duffey has allowed just 2 runs in his last 2 starts (13 2/3 innings) with 15 strikeouts. UNDER is a perfect 8-0 over L2 seasons in Rays 8 games after a contest where 17 or more combined runs were scored (avg score in these games has been 5.1)! Roll the UNDER 7! |
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08-22-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I really like the UNDER here in this matchup. Angels' starter Andrew Heaney might not have the most overpowering stuff, but he's been very effective since joining the rotation. He's got a 2.43 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 10 starts. He's more than capable of keeping this high-powered Blue Jays offense in check at home. Toronto will send out Marco Estrada, who has been straight dealing of late with a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in 19 starts. UNDER is 14-4 in Blue Jays last 18 after scoring 9 or more runs and 15-5-2 in Angels last 22 home games when listed as an underdog. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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08-21-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I really like the value we are getting with this total at 8 runs. Houston's Michael Fiers has a dominant 1.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while the Dodgers' Brett Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA over his last 5 road starts. LA is only scoring 3.8 runs/game and hitting .235 as a team in interleague play, while the Astros are scoring just 3.0 runs and hitting a mere .221 as a team over their last 7. UNDER is 15-5 in Dodgers last 20 road games after scoring 2 runs or less and 19-9 in the Astros last 28 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less in their last game. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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08-20-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Houston Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 104 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I believe this is a great spot to back the UNDER in today's matchup between the Rays and Astros. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer was rocked for 7 earned runs on 11 hits and 3 walks in his last start. It was only the third time this season that Archer allowed 5 or more earned runs. In each of the previous two instances he bounced back by allowing 2 runs or less. I'm expecting a similar outcome here with the Astros struggling offensively with just 3.3 runs/game and a .236 team average over their last 7. At the same time, I'm not expecting much offense from the Rays, who will face the red-hot Collin McHugh, who has a 1.80 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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08-19-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I believe the books have made a huge mistake here setting this total at a whopping 8.5 runs. The Red Sox don't figure to do much offensively, as they will be up against Cleveland ace Corey Kluber, who is coming in off back-to-back complete games in which he allowed 2 runs on 4 hits with 17 strikeouts. The high total is likely due to the fact that the Red Sox will be sending out Joe Kelly and his 5.69 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in 19 starts. However, Kelly is coming in off back-to-back strong starts and will be facing a Cleveland offense that has scored exactly 1 run in 3 of their last 4 games. UNDER is 24-9 in Indians last 33 road games as a favorite of -125 to -150 and 14-5 in their last 19 road games with a total set at 8.5-10 runs. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-17-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* This is a great spot to back the UNDER 7.5 on the total, as we have to strong starters on the mound. Houston will send out Scott Kazmir, who has a 1.42 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.12 ERA and 1.076 WHIP overall in 22 starts. Tampa Bay will send out Erasmo Ramirez, who has quietly had a strong year. Ramirez is 9-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 18 starts. He's been even better of late with a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 10-2 in the Rays last 12 as a road dog of +125 to +175! Roll the UNDER 7.5 |
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08-13-15 | New York Yankees v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* This might not seem like a pitcher's duel with Nathan Eovaldi going up against Trevor Bauer, but I really like the value here with the total set at 8 runs. Eovaldi has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts and Bauer has a 2.86 ERA in his last 3 outings. These two teams combined for just 3 runs yesterday. The Indians aren't a great offensive team and the Yankees have scored 2 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 7. UNDER is 6-1 in those 7 games for New York. UNDER is also 8-1 in Bauer's last 9 starts with a money line of -125 to +125 and 19-4 in the Yankees last 23 games after batting .200 or worse as a team over their last 5. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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08-10-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. San Diego Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I believe there's some hidden value here in the UNDER 7 on the total, as we are getting to sneaky good pitchers facing off in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. San Diego's Ian Kennedy has been on the rise and owns a 2.10 ERA in his last 5 home starts. Kennedy will also benefit from facing a Reds offense that is scoring just 1.9 runs and hitting .189 as a team over their last 7. Cincinnati will send out David Holmberg, who has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his first 2 starts, which came against a couple of really strong teams in Pittsburgh and St Louis. UNDER is 14-3 in Reds' last 17 after scoring 4 runs or less in 4 straight games and 13-3 in the Padres last 16 after not committing an error in 4 straight games. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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08-09-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* There's too much value here to not take the UNDER in today's matchup between the Reds and Diamond backs. Cincinnati's Anthony Desclafani has a 2.41 ERA and 1.127 WHIP over 11 road starts, while Arizona's Pat Corbin has a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP at home. Corbin also will take advantage of facing a slumping Reds offense, which is scoring just 2 runs and hitting .198 as a team over their last 7 games. UNDER is 20-7 in the Reds last 27 road games with a total set at 8 to 8.5 runs and 13-3 in their last 16 after scoring 4 runs or less in 3 straight games. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-08-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I'm not expecting many runs to be scored in Saturday's matchup between the Pirates and Dodgers. The game will be played at pitcher-friendly PNC Park and both teams are sending out quality starters. The Dodgers will give the ball to newly acquired Mat Latos, who has been rock-solid of late with a 1.89 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Latos has also been strong on the road, posting a 2.44 ERA and 1.125 in 8 road starts. Liriano has a 2.92 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 20 starts and a 2.50 ERA in his last 3. UNDER is 13-4 in the Dodgers last 17 road games when it's played during the day. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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08-07-15 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I'm not expecting a lot of runs in tonight's showdown between two of the AL's best starting pitchers. Houston's Dallas Keuchel is 13-5 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in 22 starts and Oakland's Sonny Gray is 11-4 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 22 starts. Keuchel owns a 2.83 ERA in 9 career starts against the A's and Gray has a 2.67 ERA in 4 career starts against the Astros. UNDER is 22-8 in Houston's last 30 road games after allowing 4 runs or less in 3 straight games. Roll the UNDER 6.5! |
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08-04-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 6.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Even with a total set at 6.5, I don't think the books have set the bar low enough for today's showdown between two of baseball's best starters. The Rays send out Chris Archer, who owns a 2.74 ERA in 10 road starts and a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 outings. Opposing Archer will be White Sox ace Chris Archer, who has a dominant 2.60 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 9 home starts. UNDER is 31-19 in the Rays 50 road games this season and 21-9 in the White Sox 30 home games this season when listed as a favorite of -110 or higher. Roll the UNDER 6.5! |
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07-29-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Cincinnati's Anthony Desclafani has been at his best away from home, as he's got a 2.67 ERA and 1.156 WHIP over 10 road starts. He takes on a St Louis offense that is averaging just 2.6 runs and hitting a mere .206 as a team over their last 7 games. On the flip side of this, the Cardinals will send out John Lackey, who has been sensational at home with a 1.97 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 11 starts. I just don't see either offense doing much of anything in this one. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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07-29-15 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* With the way the Marlins are struggling offensively and how well Miami starter Tom Koehler has looked both of late and at home, I don't expect to see many runs at all in this one. Koehler has a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.79 ERA in 7 starts at home, where the UNDER has cashed in 6 of those 7 starts. Washington will send out Doug Fister, who has a 1.14 ERA and 0.760 WHIP over 3 career starts against Miami and the Marlins are scoring just 2.9 runs and hitting .239 as a team over their last 7 games. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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07-28-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Both the Orioles and Braves come into this game struggling at the plate. Baltimore is scoring just 3 runs and hitting .199 as a team over their last 7 games, while Atlanta is managing just 2.6 runs and hitting .234 as a team over their last 7 games. The Braves will send out Julio Teheran, who has allowed 3 runs or less in 4 straight starts and the Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 2.06 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 7 home starts. UNDER is 14-3 in Atlanta's last 17 after scoring 1 run or less and 7-2-1 in Jimenez's last 10 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll the UNDER! |
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07-27-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I believe the books have made a big mistake here with setting the total for this game at 7.5. Both the Royals and Indians are struggling offensively right now. KC is averaging just 3.6 runs over their last 7 and Cleveland is putting up just 2.6. The real key here is the starting pitching. Royals' starter Edinson Volquez has a 1.86 ERA over his last 3 and a 3.64 ERA in 9 road starts. Indians starter Cody Anderson has a 1.91 ERA and 0.909 WHIP over 5 starts, including a 0.63 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in his 2 starts at home. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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07-25-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 6.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I cashed in on the White Sox/Indians UNDER 7 on Friday and I'm firing back with the UNDER again on Saturday, even with a lower total set at 6.5. Chicago will send out their ace Chris Sale, who has a 2.82 ERA and 1.120 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Sale also has owned the Indians of late, allowing just 2 runs on 9 hits in his last 17 innings against them. Cleveland will send out Carlos Carrasco, who is coming off back-to-back strong starts. Carrasco has also been strong in recent outings gainst the White Sox, allowing just 4 runs in his last 27 innings against them. Roll the UNDER 6.5! |
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07-24-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* We have two quality starters on the mound in today's AL Central division matchup between the Indians and White Sox and both have received little to no run support this season. Cleveland's Corey Kluber has received just 2.74 runs/game from his offense in 2015 and Chicago's Jose Quintana has received an MLB-low 2.63 runs/game. Kluber has a 2.01 ERA over his last 3 and a 2.74 ERA at home. Quintana was hit hard in his last start, but has a 2.73 ERA in 12 night starts and prior to his last outing had not allowed more than 3 earned runs in 9 straight starts. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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07-22-15 | Miami Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting here with the total sitting at 7.5. The Marlins will be sending out their ace in Jose Fernandez, while the Diamondbacks counter with one of the more underrated starters in Robbie Ray. Fernandez has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP over his first 3 starts and Ray has a 2.29 ERA and 1.073 WHIP over his 9 starts in 2015. UNDER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 and 12-4-1 in their last 17 during game 3 of a series. Roll the UNDER! |
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07-21-15 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I have no problem laying a little extra juice here to get the total at 7, as I don't see these two teams getting to that number with today's starting pitching matchup. The Mets send out Jacon deGrom, who has a 2.65 ERA and 0.902 WHIP over 8 road starts and went into the break with a 1.27 ERA and 0.750 WHIP over his last 3. The Nationals counter with Joe Ross, who was sensational in his last two starts, allowing just 3 runs with 19 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings of work. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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07-20-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* I believe we are seeing an inflated total here due to the struggles that Dodgers starter Brandon Beachy had in his first start back. Not pitching up to his potential in his first start back wasn't a big surprise given the near 2-year layoff, but I saw enough to believe he's going to bounce back strong. It will help facing an Atlanta offense that is averaging just 2.3 runs and hitting .205 as a team over their last 7 games. On the flip side of this, the Braves send out underrated starter Matt Wisler, who has a 2.65 ERA over his last 3 and a dominant 0.68 ERA and 0.900 WHIP over 2 home starts. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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07-17-15 | Chicago Cubs v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I don't see either of these offenses doing much of anything in this one. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks has been lights out of late, as he hasn't allowed a run in 3 straight starts. Atlanta's Julio Teheran has a disappointing 4.56 ERA overall, but has a dominant 2.04 ERA and 0.925 WHIP over 8 home starts. UNDER is 6-1 in Hendrick's last 7 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. UNDER is also 8-2 in Atlanta's last 10 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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07-12-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* This is a great pitching matchup and I think there's a ton of value here on the UNDER at 7. The Angels' Andrew Heaney has been lights out, posting a 1.77 ERA in 3 starts and I was really impressed with how well he threw last time out at Coors Field. Seattle's Taijuan Walker got off to a bad start, but has been a completely different pitcher of late. Walker hasn't suffered a losing decision since June 3 and had a 1.68 ERA over a 7 start stretch here recently. He's finally pitching up to his potential and I look for these two future aces to dazzle on Sunday. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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07-11-15 | Washington Nationals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Both of these offenses are struggling to get anything going offensively over the last couple of weeks and I look for that to continue here. Washington's Jordan Zimmermann has been sensational in his last 3 starts, posting a 0.40 ERA and 0.706 WHIP, allowing just 1 earned run in 22 2/3 innings. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez struggled in his first two starts back from the DL, but returned to his early form in his last outing, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings. I look for Gonzalez to build off that strong start against the slumping Nationals offense. Love the value here with this total. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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07-11-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Chicago Cubs UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* While the total for this one has been set at just 6.5, I have a hard time seeing these two teams combining for 7 or more runs. These two teams only managed 1 run in yesterday's series opener and the pitching matchup today features both teams' aces and both are throwing the ball extremly well of late. White Sox send out Chris Sale, who has allowed 3 runs in 17 innings over his last 2 starts, while the Cubs give the ball to Jon Lester, who hasn't allowed an earned run in 14 innings over his last 2 starts. Roll the UNDER 6.5! |
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07-09-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH* Love the value we are getting with this total set at 8 runs. Hard to expect the Twins offense to produce much against Detroit's ace David Price, who has gone 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 6 against Minnesota and 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his last 3. The reason we are seeing a high total is due to the fact that the Twins Mike Pelfrey has a 9.94 ERA and 2.762 WHIP over his last 3 starts. However, Pelfrey has been dominant at home, posting a 1.80 ERA in 7 starts. UNDER is 30-14 in Tigers last 44 after a win by 2 runs or less, 6-1 in the Twins last 7 against a left-handed starter and 4-0 in Pelfrey's last 4 starts as a home dog of +110 to +150. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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07-07-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* The value here is clearly on the UNDER. Baltimore's Kevin Gusman has impressed in his first two starts of the season after being primarily used out of the bullpen. In his last outing, he allowed just 4 hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings and figures to keep it going against a Twins offense that has scored 2 or less in 4 of their last 6. Minnesota will send out underrated starter Kyle Gibson, who has a 2.92 ERA in 8 home starts and a strong 1.83 ERA over his last 3 outings. He too was dominant in his last start, giving up just 4 hits over 8 scoreless innings. UNDER is 13-3 in the Orioles last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games 13-3-2 in the Twins last 18 vs a team with a winning record. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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07-07-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Absolutely love the value we are getting here with this total set at 9. Sure we have two strong offensive teams playing in hitter friendly Globe Life Park, but this is simply too many runs to not take the UNDER with today's starting pitching matchup. Rangers' starter Yovani Gallardo has been sensational of late. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 4 starts, where he's given up a total of just 14 hits in 26 1/3 innings of work. 5 of his 6 starts at home have gone UNDER the total as he's posted a 2.23 ERA at Globe Life. Arizona's Robbie Ray has seen the UNDER cash in 3 of his 4 road starts, due in large part to his 1.75 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Roll the UNDER 9! |
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07-06-15 | Houston Astros v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I think we are getting great value here with the total set at 7 runs, given the starting pitching matchup. Houston's Dallas Keuchel is one of the leading Cy Young candidates for 2015, as he's 10-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.957 WHIP over 17 starts. Keuchel has been dealing of late with a 1.96 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Cleveland will send out Carlos Carrasco, who is coming off two dominant performances. Carrasco allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 8 innings at home against the Tigers on 6/24 and followed that up with a near no hitter, as he didn't allow a hit until 2 outs in the 9th at Tampa Bay. Look for both offenses to struggle to get anything going. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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07-03-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
50* MLB *INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH* Love the value here with the total set at 7.5 runs. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has a 1.69 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over 7 road starts and the UNDER is 6-0-1. Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton has a 1.98 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over 4 home starts and the UNDER is 3-1. UNDER is 7-1 in the Indians last 8 games as a road dog of +110 to +150 and 20-9-1 in their last 30 interleague road games. UNDER is also 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and a perfect 5-0 in Morton's last 5 interleague starts. |
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07-02-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* While the Rockies are coming off a series at Oakland where they managed to score just 4 runs, I like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's series opener against the Diamondbacks. Colorado's Chris Rusin has a 5.30 ERA and 1.655 WHIP over 6 starts and an even worse 6.35 ERA and 1.898 WHIP in 4 road starts. Arizona's Jeremy Hellickson hasn't been much better. Hellickson has a 5.38 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 15 starts and a 5.45 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 7 home starts. OVER is 6-2 in their previous 8 games this season, including a perfect 3-0 in their 3 games at Arizona. OVER is also 89-47 in games with a total of 9 to 9.5 where you have a team (Rockies) that is coming off 5 straight games where they had 10 or less hits in the second half of the season. Roll the OVER 9! |
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07-02-15 | Texas Rangers v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 2-0 | Win | 102 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I love the value we are getting here with this total sitting at 8.5 runs. The Rangers' Yovani Gallardo has gone 3 straight starts without allowing a single run, including a near complete game shutout at Toronto in his last start (8 2/3 innings). Going back even further, Gallardo hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in 7 straight starts. Baltimore will be sending out Kevin Gausman, who pitched well in his first start of the season on 6/20, holding the Blue Jays to just 2 runs on 4 hits in 5 innings. Gausman will be catching a Rangers offense that was just held to 4 hits in yesterday's 2-4 defeat. UNDER is 14-5 in Gallardo's last 19 starts with a total of 8 to 8.5 and 13-4-2 in the Orioles last 19 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their last game. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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07-01-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Miami Marlins OVER 7 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* This might seem like a fair total for today's pitching matchup between Chris Heston and Dan Haren, but I think the value here is clearly with the OVER. Heston is one of the more overvalued starters due to his no hitter. In reality he's still a rookie and has a 4.43 ERA over 7 road starts. Haren has pitched better than expected in Miami, but is trending in the wrong direction with a 4.42 ERA in his last 3 starts and will be facing a Giants offense that averages an impressive 5.1 runs and is hitting .280 as a team on the road. OVER is 21-7 in San Francisco's 28 road games this season against a right-handed starter and 18-4 in the Marlins last 22 after 4 straight games with 10 or fewer hits. Roll the OVER 7! |
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06-29-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Love the value we are getting here with the total sitting at 7.5. Not the two most recognized starters, but two that are pitching extremely well at the moment. Kansas City's Joe Blanton has allowed a mere 2 runs on 7 hits in his first two starts, spanning 11 innings for a 1.64 ERA and 0.636 WHIP. Houston's Lance McCullers has a 1.17 ERA and 0.913 WHIP over 4 home starts and a 2.33 ERA and 1.036 WHIP overall. UNDER is 8-1-2 in the Royals last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 20-6-1 in their last 27 against a team with a winning record and 20-5-1 in the Astros last 26 against the AL Central. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-26-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The Indians will be hitting the road for the first time following a 7-game homestand, while the Orioles are returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip. On top of that, both teams are coming off a big division series. Cleveland just got done playing Detroit and Baltimore just faced off against Boston. I just don't see the focus being there for the every day players, giving a big advantage to the two starters. The Indians send out reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, who has allowed 1 run in his last 2 starts (14 2/3 innings) against the Orioles. Orioles send out Wei-Yin Chen, who is pitching lights out with a 1.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. UNDER is 7-2 in Chen's 9 home starts this season and 12-2 in Kluber's last 14 starts when working on 5 or 6 days of rest. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-25-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 106 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting here with positive juice on the over in this matchup. These two combined for 10 runs in the series opener on Tuesday and while they only managed 6 runs yesterday, both offenses are poised to put up a solid number. Orioles will be turning to Miguel Gonzalez, who will be making his first start off the DL. Gonzalez also has an ugly 6.04 ERA in 5 road starts. Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 7.71 ERA at home. This will also be Rodriguez's 2nd start this month against the Orioles and I think that's a big edge to Baltimore's bats. Roll the OVER 8.5! |
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06-24-15 | Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* These two teams put up a big number in yesterday's series opener (14 runs), but I think it's aided to create some great value on the under tonight. Oakland's Kendall Graveman has been throwing lights out of late with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also has a stellar 1.78 ERA over 6 road starts on the season. Texas' Wany Rodriguez is also throwing the ball extremely well with a 2.37 ERA and 1.211 WHIP over his last 3. Rodriguez has a 5.06 ERA at home, but in his last start at home he held the Twins to 1 run on 3 hits over 6 2/3 innings. Roll the UNDER 9! |
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06-20-15 | Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* There's simply too much value here on the UNDER at 8.5. The Rangers will be sending out Nick Martinez, who has a 1.47 ERA and 1.064 WHIP over 6 road starts and a 1.69 ERA over 5 day starts. Chicago's Carlos Rodon has a 1.50 ERA and 1.278 WHIP over 3 home starts and will be taking on a Texas offense that has managed a whopping 2 runs on 8 hits over their last 2 games. UNDER is 9-1 in Chicago's last 10 home games after scoring 4 runs or less in 4 straight and 9-0 in their last 9 home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less last time out. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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06-19-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER at 7.5. Washington will likely be without Bryce Harper, who left yesterday's game with a hamstring injury. Harper makes the Nationals offense go and I look for them to struggle to get anything going against veteran A.J. Burnett, who is 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.132 WHIP over 13 starts. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or fewer runs in 9 of their last 11 and Washington's Joe Ross just allowed 2 runs on 7 hits over 8 strong innings in his last start. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-18-15 | Houston Astros v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* In their 3 games during this 2 and 2 home/away split the Rockies and Astros have combined to score at least 9 runs and have pounded out 25 over their last 2. With how well the ball flies at Coors Field and the Astros ability to go deep up and down their lineup, I look for the offenses to continue to shine this afternoon. The Rockies will be starting David Hale, who has a 5.21 ERA over his last 3 starts and Houston will be sending out Collin McHugh and his 8.44 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over his last 3 outings. OVER is 8-1 in the Astros last 9 after scoring 8+ runs and 31-16 in the Rockies last 47 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses. Roll the OVER! |
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06-17-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 6.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* This defies logic as we have to aces facing off against one another, but you have to keep in mind of the talent these two teams have offensively and the fact that the game is being played in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Not to mention the wind is expecting to be blowing straight out to left-field. David Price has thrown back-to-back complete games and chances are he won't be as good as he was last two times out. OVER is 7-0 in Reds last 7 with a bullpen ERA of 3.00 or better over their last 10 and 13-4 in the Tigers last 17 after playing 17 or more straight games at home. Roll the OVER! |
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06-16-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5 | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Both offenses should be on full display in this one. Philadelphia's Jerome Williams has an awful 7.18 ERA and 1.851 WHIP over 6 road starts this season, while Baltimore's Chris Tillman has a 5.40 ERA and 1.499 WHIP over 7 home starts. Orioles could surpass this total on their own, as they are averaging 4.8 runs/game at home and 5.6 over their last 7. OVER is 14-3 in Williams' last 17 road starts as an underdog of +150 to +200 and 20-4 in the Phillies last 24 games after the bullpen allowed no runs in 3 straight games. Roll the OVER 8.5! |
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06-10-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* We are seeing an inflated total here due to the Mariners sending out Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.80 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 11 starts. Walker is much better than his numbers would suggest and he's showed some real positive signs of late. He's completed 8 innings in each of his last 2 starts, allowing just 3 runs on 7 hits with only 1 walk. That includes a start against the Indians, where he held them to just 2 hits in 8 innings. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has a 1.75 ERA over has last 5 starts and just recently held Seattle to just 2 runs on 6 hits in 7 innings or work. I look for both offenses to struggle in this one. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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06-09-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I'm not expecting a lot of offense in this one. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been lights out over his first two big league starts, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 14 2/3 innings of work. Baltimore will send out Miguel Gonzalez, who has been rock-solid when he takes the mound at home. Gonzalez is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.808 WHIP in 6 home starts. He's also got a strong 3.26 ERA over 8 career starts against the Red Sox. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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06-08-15 | San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting here with this total set at 7.5. Atlanta's Shelby Miller has a 1.67 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over 4 home starts, 3 of which have finished under the total. The reason we are seeing a total over 7 is the Padres' Ian Kennedy comes in with a 6.60 ERA. The key here is that Kennedy is coming off a strong start, allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts in 6 innings. UNDER is 8-1 in Miller's 9 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs and 11-4 in Kennedy's last 15 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-06-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 | 2-8 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I'm backing the under in this matchup, as 8 runs is too much given the starting pitching matchup we have here. LA's Garrett Richards hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Yankees. New York's Adam Warren has a 2.05 ERA and 1.091 WHIP over 4 home starts and has seen each of his last 3 starts go under the mark. UNDER is 6-2 in Richards last 8 road starts against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in Warren's last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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06-06-15 | Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* I'm backing the under in today's showdown between the Rangers/Royals. The Rangers Wandy Rodriguez enters with a 2.03 ERA and 0.968 WHIP over 5 road starts. All 5 of those starts have finished under the total. The Royals Yordano Ventura has a 2.14 ERA and 0.762 WHIP over his last 3 starts, all of which saw fewer than 8 runs. UNDER is 22-8 in the Royals last 30 home games played on Saturday. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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06-04-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
50* MLB *GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* Neither of these teams are swinging a hot bat. The Royals have scored just 6 runs in their last 3 games combined and the Indians have managed just 2 a piece in their last two games. On top of that we have two underrated starters on the mound. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has a 0.99 ERA over 4 road starts (Under is 4-0) and Kansas City's Chris Young has a 0.54 ERA in 3 home starts. Add in two very strong bullpens and I don't expect to see many runs crossing the plate in this one. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-03-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
40* MLB *AL TOTAL CRUSHER* Love the value we are getting with this total sitting at 7.5. The value comes from having two underrated starters on the mound in Tampa's Nate Karns and LA's Hector Santiago. Karns has a 2.16 ERA over his last 3 starts and has been spectacular on the road, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over 4 starts. Santiago has a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 and a 1.49 ERA in 6 home starts. UNDER is 13-4 in the Rays 17 road night games this season, 13-3-1 in their last 17 after allowing 2 runs or less and 27-12-1 in Angels last 40 home games against a team with a winning record. Roll the UNDER! |
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06-02-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
50* MLB *MLB GRAND SLAM TOTAL TOP PLAY* These two starters faced off last Tuesday in Minnesota and it ended up in a 2-1 pitcher's duel. I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight. Boston's Clay Buchholz has a sensational 1.99 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.97 ERA in his last 5 outings against the Twins. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has a 2.77 ERA on the season and a 1.93 ERA over 2 career starts against the Red Sox. UNDER is 16-5 in Boston's last 21 home games after 2 straight games without a home run and 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 4 runs or less in 3 straight. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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05-28-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* TOTAL |
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05-22-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* I cashed in on the Red Sox/Angels UNDER 8.5 in yesterday's 3-1 final and I'll gladly take the UNDER again in the second game of the series with the same total. Boston's offense is in a major funk right now (1.9 runs/game L7) and will be going up against the red-hot Garrett Richards (1.69 ERA over L3). Boston's Rick Porcello is also in top form right now, posting a 2.41 ERA over his last 3. In his last two starts against the Angels, Porcello has allowed just 1 earned run in 14 innings of work. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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05-21-15 | Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 111 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* The value is clearly on the under in today's matchup between the Rangers and Red Sox. Boston's Clay Buchholz is starting to turn things around. He's got a 3.92 ERA and 1.162 WHIP over his last 3 starts. In his last outing he limited the Mariners to just 1 run on 3 hits with 11 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. As for Rangers starter Wandy Rodriguez, he's got a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP over 3 road starts, with all 3 of those going under the total (2 of Buchholz 3 home starts have also gone under). Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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05-20-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* The Indians and White Sox have went UNDER the total in each of their last 12 meetings and I expect the streak to hit 13 after the conclusion of tonight's game. Cleveland will send out Shawn Marcum, who will be making his first start since July of 2013. Marcum looked sharp in 5 innings of relief against the Tigers earlier this season and has posted a 1.36 ERA over his last 5 minor league starts. Chicago's Carlos Rondon has had some control problems in his first two big league starts, but his 13 strikeouts in 10 innings over his first two starts provide a ton of optimism. Rondon was also much better in his lone home start, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 innings. With both offenses in a funk, 8 is a big number here. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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05-19-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* The books have set the bar too low for this total The Giants come in having scored 30 runs in their last 3 games and have recorded 10+ hits in 8 of their last 9 overall. I look for them to stay hot at the plate against the Dodgers Carlos Frias, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP on the road. I also expect LA to put up a decent amount of runs here. Tim Hudson is 1-3 with with a 4.57 ERA and 1.346 WHIP over 7 starts and has a 5.74 ERA at home. Roll the OVER 7! |
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05-15-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* It's not been the start the Red Sox were hoping for with Clay Buchholz, but I'm confident he's going to get this thing turned around. Buchholz snapped a 5-start losing streak in his last outing, allowing just 3 runs over 6 1/3 innings of a 6-3 win at Toronto. He's getting ready to face a Seattle offense in a bit of a funk, as the Mariners have scored just 3 runs in their last 2 games. Boston doesn't figure to do a whole lot offensively either. The Red Sox are hitting an awful .188 against southpaws this season and will be going up against lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 2.33 ERA and 1.086 WHIP over 3 home starts. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-12-15 | San Diego Padres v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value we are getting in this one with the total set at 7.5. Seattle's James Paxton has overcome a poor start to 2015 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.178 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Ian Kennedy of the Padres is also coming into this game throwing the ball extremely well. Kennedy has allowed just 3 runs on 10 hits over his last two starts (13 innings). Dating back to July 7 of last year, Kennedy has a 2.65 ERA over his last 9 road starts. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-10-15 | Houston Astros v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY Really like the value here with the total sitting at 7.5. Angels' Garrett Richards has been dealing of late, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts, lowing his season ERA down to 2.52. Richards has been especially tough to hit at home, where he's allowed just 3 earned runs in 14 innings of work. I look for Richards to keep the Astros offense in check in this one, while Houston starter Scott Feldman keeps LA from putting up a big number. Feldman has pitched well against the Angels of late, as he hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in his last 7 starts against them. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-09-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* Love the value here with the total set at 7.5. The Phillies have an anemic offense that comes in scoring just 2.8 runs/game with a .228 average. Mets starter Jon Neise hasn't had any problems keeping Philadelphia's offense in check over his career, as he's got a 2.92 ERA and 1.214 WHIP over 20 career starts. The key here is that we can also anticipate a tough day at the plate for New York. Phillies starter Aaron Harang as a sensational 2.35 ERA and 0.965 WHIP over 6 starts and a 0.00 ERA and 0.419 WHIP over 2 home starts. To top it off, Harang has allowed a total of just 4 earned runs over his previous 5 starts against the Mets (31 innings). Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-06-15 | Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 0-13 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL TOP PLAY* The books have set the mark too high for tonight's contest between the A's and Twins. Not only do we have two underrated starters on the mound, but the wind will be blowing in at roughly 15 mph at Target Field. Oakland will send out Scott Kazmir, who has a 1.62 ERA and 0.930 WHIP over 5 starts against the Twins' Kyle Gibson, who has a sensational 0.61 ERA and 0.954 WHIP over two home starts. Both offenses are also coming off a poor showing in yesterday's 2-1 win for the A's, adding more value to a low-scoring affair in this one. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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05-06-15 | New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* The Yankees come into this game averaging 5.1 runs/game on the road, while the Blue Jays are averaging 5.2 runs/game at home. Both offenses get even better when facing a left-handed starter, which will be the case today. New York is average 5.5 runs/game against a southpaw starter and Toronto is averaging 5.7. Adding to this is the fact that we have two struggling starters taking the mound in C.C. Sabathia and Mark Buehrle. Sabathia has a 5.40 ERA and 1.389 WHIP over 5 starts and Buehrle has a 6.75 ERA and 1.929 WHIP over 5 starts. Roll the OVER 8.5! |
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05-05-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The Rays have seen each of their last 9 games finish below the the total, as they continue to pitch well and struggle to do much of anything offensively. I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight with Tampa sending out Drew Smyly against Rick Porcello of the Red Sox. Smyly has a 3.37 ERA and 0.843 WHIP over 2 starts, while Porcello comes in off a dominant start at home against Toronto, where he allowed 1 run on 2 hits over 7 innings. Smyly has a 3.57 ERA over 3 career starts against the Red Sox and Porcello has a 3.21 ERA in 7 career starts against the Rays (Under is 6-1 in his 7 starts). Roll the UNDER 8! |
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05-03-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL KNOCKOUT* The Marlins are swinging a hot bat, as they come in averaging 5.3 runs and hitting .328 as a team over their last 7 games. Miami has scored 7 runs in two of their last 3 games and I wouldn't be shocked if they eclipsed this total on their own. Philadelphia will be sending out Severino Gonzalez, who was rocked for 7 runs on 10 hits in 2 2/3 innings in his MLB debut against the Cardinals. Roll the OVER 8! |
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05-02-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I think this is a great value play here with the total sitting at 7.5. Detroit will be sending out their ace in David Price, who has a 2.25 ERA and 1.250 WHIP over 2 road starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City counters with Edinson Volquez, who has been better than they expected. Volquez has a 1.91 ERA and 0.847 WHIP over 4 starts. Don't see either team doing much offensively in this one. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-02-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH* I believe we are seeing a high total here due to the fact that Seattle starter Taijuan Walker comes in with a 6.87 ERA and 1.831 WHIP over his first 4 starts. Most of the damange with Walker's ERA and WHIP came in his first two starts. He's allowed 1 earned run over his last two outings, giving up just 10 hits with 13 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings. Walker held the Astros to just 1 run on 4 hits earlier this season. As for the other side of things, Houston's Collin McHugh is 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over 4 starts and was sensational in his lone home start of 2015. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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05-01-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 109 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* Chicago comes in averaging just 3.1 runs/game on the road and the Twins are scoring just 3.9 runs/game on the season. I think 8 is a big number here and expect this one to easily go under the total. White Sox will send out Jose Quintana, who is coming off a strong start at home against the Royals, allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has a 1.35 ERA at home and a 2.89 ERA over his last 3 starts. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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04-30-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOTAL* Really like the value we are getting here with this high total in tonight's showdown between the Royals and Tigers. Detroit's Alfredo Simon is 4-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in his first 4 starts. He's allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 22 innings of work. Kansas City counters with Danny Duffy, who is quietly getting better with each start. Duffy got rocked in his season debut, but has since posted a 2.70 ERA over his last 3. Duffy has a respectable has allowed just 4 earned runs combined in his last 3 against the Tigers. Roll the UNDER 8! |
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04-29-15 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
50* MLB *NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH* The books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Mets and Marlins. New York will be sending out veteran Bartolo Colon, who is 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.885 WHIP over his first 4 starts of 2015. One of those includes a game against the Marlins, where he allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 7 innings of a 4-1 win. Miami's Mat Latos will oppose Colon and is a big part of the value we are getting here. Latos has a 7.31 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over 4 starts, but has allowed 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts and has shown improvement with each outing. Latos held the Mets to 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings earlier this year and has a 2.63 ERA and 1.152 WHIP over 9 career starts against New York. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-28-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 109 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL CENTRAL PLAY OF THE MONTH* The books have set up a favorable total here to back the UNDER. Detroit's Anibal Sanchez bounced back from a couple bad starts with his best outing of the season. Sanchez held the Yankees to just 1 run on 1 hit over 6 1/3 innings. He's got a 2.34 career ERA against the Twins and in a previous start against Minnesota this season he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings. Mike Pelfrey has been better than expected to start the year and he too is coming off his best start. Pelfrey threw 7 shutout innings at Kansas City, giving him a 2.65 ERA and 1.294 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Runs will be hard to come by for both teams. Roll the UNDER 8.5! |
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04-28-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* I look for both teams to struggle to get their offenses going in this one. The Brewers are atrocious offensively and will be facing Cincinnati's ace Johnny Cueto, who has a 2.92 ERA and 1.063 WHIP over 17 career starts against Milwaukee. He's pitched at least 8 innings in each of his last 3 starts against the Brewers, and allowed just 3 runs combined. Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse limited the Reds to 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 innings in his last start and has a 2.69 career ERA and 1.082 WHIP against Cincinnati. Roll the UNDER 7! |
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04-27-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* Seattle's Taijuan Walker finally pitched up to his ability in his last start, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings of work. However, Walker comes in with a 10.66 ERA over 3 starts, which is why we are seeing such a big total. I look for both offenses to struggle in this one, as Texas counters with undervalued Yovani Gallardo, who has given up just 5 earned runs in his last 3 starts and threw 6 shutout innings against the Mariners back on 4/17. UNDER is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs and 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 games as a home favorite. Roll the UNDER 9! |
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04-25-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
50* MLB *TOTAL TOP PLAY* The average runs scored in Diamondbacks' home games this season is 8.9 and I see no reason why tonight's contest won't eclipse the 9 run mark. Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett is not as good as his 2.00 ERA would suggest, as he comes in with a 1.33 WHIP over 3 starts. He's somehow managed to allow just 4 earned runs, despite giving up 19 hits and 5 walks over 16 innings of work. On the other side we have Rubby De La Rosa, who has allowed 13 runs on 23 hits (4 HRs) and 5 walks over his first 3 starts. De La Rosa was especially bad in his lone home start in 2015, giving up 6 runs in just 5 1/3 innings. Roll the OVER 8.5! |
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04-24-15 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* The starting pitching matchup of Dallas Kuechel and Scott Kazmir might not sound like a pitchers duel, but that's exactly what I'm expecting from these two underrated starters. Kuechel is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his first 3 starts, while Kazmir is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Kuechel has allowed a total of 4 earned runs in his last 3 outings against the A's and Kazmir has given up just 5 earned runs his last 3 vs the Astros. Roll the UNDER! |
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04-24-15 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
50* MLB *NL EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH* I'm expecting a very low-scoring game tonight between these two division rivals. Washington will send out Jordan Zimmerman whose one bad start at Boston has his numbers way off. Zimmerman has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts against the Marlins. Miami counters with Mat Latos, who has also pitched much worse than his ability to start the season. Latos has shown signs of progress in each of his last two starts and has a 2.66 ERA over 7 career starts against the Nationals. UNDER is also 9-1 in Latos' last 10 starts against an NL team with an OBP of .315 or worse. Roll the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-21-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
50* MLB *AL CENTRAL PLAY OF THE MONTH* We are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that today's starters just recently faced off against each other in a 8-5 Twins win last Thursday in Minnesota. Royals' starter Jason Vargas has been a much stronger pitcher at home than on the road. Prior to his poor outing against the Twins last week, Vargas had allowed a total of 3 earned runs over his previous 4 starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Tom Milone is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over his first two starts of 2015. UNDER is 78-37 (68%) when you have a total of 7 to 8.5 where the home team is starting a pitcher that has walked 1 or fewer in each of his last two outings and a bullpen that hasn't allowed a run in 3 straight games. Roll UNDER 8! |
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04-20-15 | New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
50* MLB *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* Really like the value we are getting here with the total sitting at a hefty 9 runs. Detroit will send out Alfredo Simon, who is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his first two starts of 2015, improving to 6-1 with a 1.72 ERA over his last 7 April starts. C.C. Sabathia will be on the mound for New York. While he's allowed 4 earned runs in each of his first two starts, he's pitched much better than that. He's walked just 1 batter over 12 2/3 innings and has 15 strikeouts. Sabathia has a 2.51 ERA over his last 4 starts against the Tigers. Roll UNDER 9! |
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04-19-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* MLB *SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL TOTAL DESTROYER* Tonight's showdown features Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright against Cincinnati's Mike Leake. This might seem like a pitchers duel on paper, but I'm expecting both offenses to steal the spotlight. Leake has a 5.16 ERA and 1.383 WHIP over 13 career starts against St Louis, while Wainwright has a 4.51 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 17 career starts versus the Reds. OVER is 73-34 (68%) over the last 5 seasons (5-0 this year) in games where you have a team coming off 4 or more consecutive wins and a winning record on the season. Roll the OVER 7! |
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04-19-15 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets OVER 6.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL CRUSHER* We are getting some great value here with this small total, which is largely due to the fact that the Mets are sending out their ace Matt Harvey. In his last start, Harvey allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and the big key here is that he's failed to pitch past the 6th inning in each of his first two starts. New York's offense is red-hot, scoring 4+ runs in 5 straight games and I look for them to put up another big number here against Tom Koehler and the Marlins. OVER is 73-34 (68%) over the last 5 seasons (5-0 this year) in games where you have a team coming off 4 or more consecutive wins and a winning record on the season. Roll the OVER 6.5! |
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04-18-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | 0-4 | Win | 112 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
40* MLB *TOTAL DOMINATOR* I'm expecting a pitchers duel tonight in Los Angeles. Houston's Dallas Keuchel has been rock solid over his first two starts of 2015, allowing just 2 earned runs over 14 innings of work. He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Angels. LA counters with C.J. Wilson, who after a dominant first start against the Mariners, was hit hard at home by the Royals. This is a prime bounce back spot for Wilson against the light-hitting Astros, who are averaging just 1.9 runs/game at home behind a horrible .175 team average and .256 OBP. Roll the UNDER 8! |