Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Week 9. The line here really says it all, as we have Las Vegas laying points on the road after they just had arguably the worst showing of any team all season in last week's 24-0 loss at New Orleans. The Raiders didn't even get the ball past midfield until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The key thing to note with that showing is Las Vegas was dealing with the flu bug and it's really the only thing that could explain that pitiful performance. The only other thing is if this team has just thrown in the towel on this season, but I can't see that being the case this early on. My money is on the Raiders to put that ugly showing behind them with one of their best showings of the season Sunday against a Jags team that just keeps finding ways to lose. Since their big 38-10 upset win at the Chargers back in Week 3, Jacksonville has proceeded to lose 6 straight games. In terms of talent, I don't think this one is that close. The Raiders are as talented of a 2-win team as you will find going into Week 9 of a season. I just trust them to find a way to win this game to save their season. Give me Las Vegas -1.5! |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 38 m | Show |
10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Vikings/Commanders OVER 43.5 I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Vikings and Commanders on Sunday. This to me is way too low a total for this matchup. I get Washington's offense hasn't been able to do much of late, scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Thing is, those low offensive outputs have come against some pretty good defensive teams in the Colts, Packers, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles. Note that while they did only score 17 vs Tennessee, they had 342 passing yards in that game. Minnesota comes into this game at 6-1, but their early season success has all been a result of their high-powered offense. Not their defense. The Vikings come into this game scoring 24.7 ppg and have scored at least 23 points in all but one game (vs the Eagles). Their defense is not very good, giving up 383 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They are especially bad vs the pass, as opposing QBs are completing 68.9% of their attempts against them. Simply put, this is a game where I think both offenses will be able to move the football and put points on the scoreboard. I like both of these teams to at the very minimum eclipse the 20-point mark and that should be more than enough to push us past this low total. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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11-05-22 | Auburn +13 v. Mississippi State | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 52 h 25 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Prime Time ATS SHOCKER: Auburn Tigers +13 I'll take my chances with Auburn catching 13 on the road against Mississippi State. This is just one of my favorite situational handicaps in really all sports. That's backing the team who leading up to the game, fired their head coach. That's the storyline for Auburn in this one. Enough was enough, Brian Harsin was fired after last week's 27-41 loss at home to Arkansas. Sometimes a coaches style or personality just isn't a good fit and to me it felt like Harsin had lost the team maybe even before the season started. There's already talk about how the energy level is up with the team since Harsin was let go. The interim is former Auburn star running back Carnell Williams. A.K.A. as Cadillac. Tell me the kids aren't going to be fired up to play for him. Even with the Bulldogs coming off of a bye, I think Auburn will be the more motivated team in this one. Keep in mind Mississippi State lost a lot of their momentum leading into the bye. There was a buzz forming with this team after their 5-1 start and they went into the bye off back-to-back road losses to Kentucky and Alabama. Their only two wins in conference play have come against Arkansas, who is also way down, and Texas A&M, who was playing awful football at that time. For as bad as everyone wants to make Auburn out to be, they have really been competitive in SEC play outside of a road game against Georgia. They only lost by 4 at home to LSU, by 14 at Ole Miss and by 14 to Arkansas. I like them to keep it close and maybe even win outright. Give me the Tigers +13! |
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11-05-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas Jayhawks PK I love Kansas as a pick'em at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. There are just no easy games on the schedule in the Big 12. I can't remember a time it's been this even across the board in this conference in football. A big reason for that is the resurgent Jayhawks, who are off to a 5-3 start and figure to remain on an upward trajectory as long as Lance Leipold remains their head coach. I know Kansas has lost their last 3 games after that improbable 5-0 start, but one of those was a 7-point loss to TCU, who is the only undefeated team in the conference. The other two were road games against Oklahoma and Baylor. They also lost starting QB Jalon Daniels in the loss to TCU and he didn't play at all in the losses to the Sooners or Bears. He's back practicing with the team and all signs point to him returning. With that said, I still like KU if he were to sit, as backup Jason Bean has been every bit as good as Daniels throwing the ball. He's just not as big of a threat on the ground. This is also a Kansas team that has had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye week. The Cowboys on the other hand are probably still trying to figure out what happened in last weeks 0-48 loss at K-State. I think the writing has been on the wall with this team not being as good as their record, as they have several close wins where they had to rally from behind. On top of that, it's no sure thing the Cowboys have starting quarterback, who was roughed up in garbage time in the loss to the Wildcats. Give me the Jayhawks Pk! |
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11-05-22 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh -3.5 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 I'll take my chances with Pitt as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Orange. This is a line that simply doesn't look right. Syracuse is 6-2 and while they have lost their last two games, those losses did come to Clemson and Notre Dame. Pitt on the other hand is just 4-4 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and failed to cover in 4 of their last 5. Keep in mind Syracuse is still the No. 20 ranked team in the country. It would be one thing if this was closer to a pick'em. Everyone is going to be looking to back Syracuse catching a field goal plus the hook. Maybe the books are just overvaluing Pitt and we are stepping in it with the Panthers with this play, but I just don't think that's the case, especially this late into the season. The line to me, screams that the books are taking a pretty firm stance on the Panthers not just winning this game but winning it going away. I do question the mindset of this Syracuse team. They had that 6-0 start and got all these crazy thoughts they could win the ACC. Then they jump out that big lead on the road against Clemson and aren't able to finish the job. They follow that up with a bad showing at home against Notre Dame. Would it really be all surprising to see their woes carry over to the road against a Pitt team that I think is hungry for a win and a bit undervalued after playing two of the better ACC teams on the road in Louisville and UNC. It's also not easy moving the ball on this Panthers defense. Pitt is only giving up 352 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. They are allowing 3.9 yards/rush and a mere 56.7% completion rate. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, there's every reason to think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Panthers -3.5! |
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11-05-22 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -7 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa State Cyclones -7 I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 7-point home favorite against West Virginia. A lot of people might be scratching their heads to why the Cyclones are laying a full touchdown in this game. ISU comes into this game having lost their last 5 and in the process have struggled to get their offense going. While I do think the Cyclones will be better offensively than they have been, I'm not expecting them to go off for 40+ points. I think they win here by more than a touchdown because of their defense. Because this team has struggled to win games, I think people overlook just how good this ISU defense has been. The Cyclones come into this game giving up just 16.6 ppg and 296 ypg, which becomes even more impressive when you factor in their opponents on average are scoring 29.6 ppg and putting up 399 yards of total offense. Just to put that in comparison, WV is allowing 34.6 ppg, 418 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. These two teams have also played 3 common opponents (Kansas, Texas and Baylor) and in those games the Mountaineers are giving up 44.3 ppg, 485.7 ypg and 7.5 yards/play. ISU against those same 3 teams are allowing 23.0 ppg, 313.7 ypg and 5.2 yards/play. It's hard to win on the road with a bad defense when your offense isn't able to sustain drives. We kind of seen that with WV in their two Big 12 road games, where they lost 20-38 to Texas and 10-48 at Texas Tech. I expect more of the same problems for the Mountaineers in this one. Give me Iowa State -7! |
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11-05-22 | Penn State v. Indiana +14 | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 24 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Indiana Hoosiers +14 I'll take my chances with Indiana cashing as a 14-point home dog against Penn State on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many points for the Nittany Lions to be laying on the road in this spot. This is a massive letdown spot for Penn State coming off of last week's game against Ohio State. A game they ended up losing 31-44, but had a 21-16 lead with under 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Having already lost the head-to-head matchups with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, Penn State at 3-2 in Big 10 play is all but out of the picture for winning the East and playing in the Big Ten title game. At this program, that's really their only goal coming into the season and one they had to feel like they had a shot at reaching given their 5-0 start. I just think it will be tough for Penn State to pick themselves up off of the mat and Indiana is a team that no matter how limited they are on either side of the ball, will give you their best effort. It would be fitting for them to come into this game riding a 5-game losing streak and go out and win the game outright. They did lose by just 21 at home to Michigan and they have a 5-point loss to Maryland and a 7-point loss on the road to Rutgers. Their defense isn't great, but it's good at stopping the run and if they win up front on that side of the ball, they certainly get off of the field and not let Penn State run up the score. Give me the Hoosiers +14! |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech +9 v. TCU | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9 I'll take my chances with Texas Tech as a 9-point road dog against TCU. I really like this Texas Tech team. Even though I lost with them last week in an ugly loss at home to Baylor, I've won more than I've lost backing them this season. Not only that, but I think TCU is a bit overrated right now, at least in the betting market. Yes the Horned Frogs are 8-0, but it's not been them just dominating their opponents. Their last 4 wins, all conference games, have been decided by 10 points or less. Note that in their two wins by 10 points, they beat K-State 38-28 after trailing 10-28. They scored a garbage TD in the final seconds against WV last week to win that game by 10. TCU also has a 43-40 OT win over Oklahoma State where they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half. They were also tied with Kansas with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. I just don't think TCU deserves to be laying more than a touchdown in this spot. Prior to last week's loss to Baylor, Texas Tech had outgained each of its previous 7 opponents. I just don't think the Red Raiders showed up to that game against Baylor with the right mindset. The defense didn't play up to their standards and the offense turned it over 4 times. I feel pretty good about this team responding with a much better mindset against TCU, who every team is out to get right now. Give me the Red Raiders +9! |
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 60 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 I'm going to lay the 3.5-points with Purdue at home against Iowa. Last week I cashed on Iowa -11 at home against Northwestern with one of my biggest bets of the weekend, as they cruised to a 33-13 win. I got no problem turning around and fading the Hawkeyes as a short road dog against the Boilermakers. The biggest reason I liked Iowa last week, was I loved the matchup for the Hawkeyes. Northwestern not only had a defense they could exploit, but I felt confident that the Wildcats offense would not be able to generate much of anything offensively. It played out even better than I expected with Iowa scoring a season-high 33-points and putting up 393 total yards, including a season-best 173 rushing yards. Northwestern's offense on the other hand managed just 177 total yards and 75 of those came on a garbage TD drive late in the 4th quarter. One thing I was a bit surprised about was Iowa's decision to stick with Spencer Petras at quarterback. It worked out, as Petras completed 21 of 30 attempts for 220 yards and a score, but I'm not buying for a second that he's magically figured this thing out. He to me is still one of the worst QBs in the country. I expect him and the Iowa offense to revert right back to what we grew accustomed to seeing this season. Purdue is not going to let them get the run game going. Boilermakers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry on the season and let's not forget that Iowa had just 154 rushing yards combined in their 3 previous games. I also want to point out that while Purdue secondary has struggled at times this year, opposing QBs are only completing 55.8% of their attempts against them. On the flip side of the ball, I like Purdue's chances of moving the ball against this stingy Iowa defense. Since Jeff Brohm came to West Lafayette back in 2017, Purdue's offense is averaging 25.6 points/game in 5 matchups with Iowa. That might not seem all that great, but keep in mind Iowa has allowed fewer than 20 ppg on the season in each of those 5 years. Purdue is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS under Brohm vs Iowa with 3 outright wins as a dog, including last year's 24-7 win as a 12-point road dog. This could also be an especially painful game for Iowa fans to watch. Purdue has averaged a staggering 310 passing yards/game under Brohm and it seems like it's always one guy that torches him. The last 3 years it was David Bell. This year it figures to be Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who is 2nd in the country in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and T-4th in receiving TDs. On top of all that, Purdue has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game coming off of their bye week. Give me the Boilermakers -3.5! |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 54.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Oregon St/Washington UNDER 54.5 I'll take my chances with the UNDER 54.5 in Friday's Pac-12 matchup between Washington and Oregon State. I just don't see this being a shootout. I know Washington has played in a lot of high-scoring games, but this Oregon State defense really matches up well with what the Huskies like to do offensively. Washington is all about attacking teams thru the air. They come in averaging 379 passing yards/game. Passing on this Oregon State defense is not easy. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.6% of their attempts against the Beavers and that's against QBs that on average are completing 62.5% of their attempts. Mother Nature could also slow down the Huskies ariel attack, as there will be 15-20 mph with the real feel in the upper 30s. Oregon State on the other hand is going to establish the run and as long as they are within striking distance, I don't see them abandoning it. Beavers on average run 66 plays and 39 (59%) of those are runs. They are pretty good at it, averaging 5.0 yards/carry. I think they can move the chains on the ground, but I also think Washington's run defense is good enough to limit the explosive plays and create the negative plays to end drives. Give me the UNDER 54.5! |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +13.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5 I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game. The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half. Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5! |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | 28-35 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Appalachian State -3 I'll take my chances with the Mountaineers as a 3-point road favorite against Coastal Carolina. This is just one of those games where the line screams which side to take. You have a Coastal Carolina team that is 7-1 getting points on their home field against a App State team that is just 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS. That alone makes this an easy play for me to fade the public dog. I also feel like there's plenty of reason to like the Mountaineers in this matchup. Appalachian State has really looked good in their last two games, which have followed that ugly 24-36 loss at Texas State where they closed as a 19-point favorite. They crushed Georgia State 42-17 and did the same in a 42-3 win over Robert Morris. The offense for the Mountaineers looks more like the unit we expected to see all season, as they are back to pounding the rock on the ground with 691 rushing yards in their last 2 games. They will be facing a Chanticleers defense that has underperformed this year. Coastal Carolina is giving up 6.2 yards/play. Grayson McCall and that Chanticleer offense may be able to keep it close early on, but I just don't see their offense being able to keep pace over the course of 60 minutes. Give me the Mountaineers -3! |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
10* NCAAF MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Northern Illinois Huskies -5.5 Give me Northern Illinois as a 5.5-point home favorite against Central Michigan. I see a ton of value with the Huskies laying anything less than a touchdown. If you just looked at the records, this might seem like a pretty fair fight, given both teams enter with a 2-6 record. I just don't see these two teams as equals. Northern Illinois is much better than their 2-6 record, while I feel the Chippewas are every bit as bad as their record. The Huskies have one loss by more than 10 points and that was to Toledo, who has shown to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year. The loss by 10 was to a SEC school in Vanderbilt. Every other loss has been by 1 score, including a mere 8-point loss at Kentucky and 3-point loss at Tulsa. Speaking of road games, it's worth noting Northern Illinois has played just two home games vs FBS schools and those were Vandy and Toledo. As for Central Michigan, the Chippewas are a complete mess offensively. They lost a ton of talent on the o-line from last year's team to the NFL. They also have suffered injuries at tackle, where they are extremely thin. Chippewas have also lost several skill guys. They had a linebacker playing running back in their last game and he could see snaps here if a couple guys listed as questionable can't play. Northern Illinois for the season is averaging just 380 ypg and 5.1 yards/play. They are averaging 3.7 yards/rush and completing just 57.2% of their pass attempts. I know Northern Illinois' defense hasn't been great, but this is an offense they should have success against. The d-line should have success against that make-shift Central Michigan line and the other two units feed off the d-line living in the backfield. Give me Northern Illinois -5.5! |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio OVER 58.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF MACtion Total NO-BRAINER: Buffalo/Ohio OVER 58.5 I will take my chances with the OVER 58.5 in Tuesday's MACaction that has Buffalo visiting Ohio. I just don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points. The Bulls are a perfect 4-0 in MAC play behind one of the leagues top offensive units. Buffalo comes in averaging 36.5 ppg and 413.5 ypg in their 4 conference games. That offense will be up against one of the worst defenses in the MAC in Ohio. For the season the Bobcats are allowing 34.4 ppg, 510 ypg and 6.9 yards/play. They are giving up 4.9 yards/carry vs the run, while opposing QBs are completing 69% and averaging 8.9 yards/attempt. The key here is I think Ohio's offense has the ability to go score-for-score with Buffalo in this one. The Bobcats aren't too far behind Buffalo's offense in league play. Ohio is averaging 34.0 ppg, 440 ypg and 7.0 yards/play in MAC play. They have been especially good this year on offense at home, scoring 44.8 ppg on 524 ypg and 7.8 yards/play. Give me the OVER 58.5! |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5 I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less. The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy. On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5! |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Lions/Dolphins OVER 51 I'm going to take the OVER 51 in Sunday's early afternoon matchup that has the Dolphins visiting the Lions. To some this total might seem a bit high given what we saw out of these two offenses last week. Miami only managed to score 16-points at home against the Steelers, while Detroit managed just 6-points on the road against the Cowboys. It was a second straight awful showing for the Lions offense, which was shutout in it's previous game at New England. I believe it's actually created some decent value with the total in the low 50's, as I would be shocked if this game didn't get into the 60s. The big thing to note about the Lions recent struggles on offense is they have had to play the last 3 games without stud running back D'Andre Swift. Before his injury, Swift was arguably the best back in the league, as he rushed for 231 yards on just 27 attempts for a staggering 8.6 yards/carry. He's back healthy and ready to roll. They also lost stud wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown to a concussion in the 1st quarter of last week's game against the Cowboys. He's back practicing and should be cleared from concussion protocol any day. It all adds up to a get right game for the Lions offense, especially with how banged up the Dolphins are on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest problems for Miami coming in their secondary, where 6 of their 8 corners listed on the depth chart are either out or questionable. They also just lost starting safety Brandon Jones, whose led the team with 49 tackles, 11 more than the next best player on the team. Also worth noting that despite Swift missing 3 games for Detroit, the Lions still rank 7th in the NFL in rushing at 145.7 ypg. The only other team Miami has faced this season that ranks in the Top 10 in rushing was the Ravens back in Week 2 and Baltimore put up 38 points on the Dolphins. On the flip side of the ball, I think Tua wasn't quite himself in his first game back from injury last week against Pittsburgh. Tua should be in for a field day against a Lions secondary that has given up a ton of big plays in the passing games. Detroit ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The only team worse is the Vikings, who allow 8.4. Note that Miami with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson at quarterback torched that Minnesota secondary for 385 yards a couple weeks ago. Tyreek Hill had 12 catches for 177 yards and Jaylen Waddle had 6 for 129. One last thing that I think needs to be noted with this total is just how easily points have been put on the scoreboard in Detroit home games. In the Lions 3 home games this year they have combined for 73 points with the Eagles, 63 against the Commanders and 93 against the Seahawks. Give me the OVER 51! |
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10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints OVER 49.5 | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 7 m | Show | |
8* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Saints/Raiders OVER 49.5 I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49.5 in Sunday's game between the Raiders and Saints. I'm shocked this total isn't in the 50s. The Raiders have been a mess defensively all season, as they come in giving up 25.0 ppg, 367 ypg and 5.9 yards/play. Even the Broncos of all teams were able to put up 23 points and over 300 yards on them. Really the only game all season Russell Wilson has looked anything like the QB he was in Seattle. Andy Dalton isn't the long-term answer in New Orleans, but he's definitely given this Saints offense a lift over starter Jameis Winston. So much that NO is sticking with Dalton even though Winston could play if needed. Saints have scored at least 25 in each of their last 4 games and Dalton is coming off a 400+ yard performance last time out against the Cardinals. As good as the offense has been, the Saints defense has been equally as bad, which is why New Orleans is just 1-3 in their last 4. Saints have given up 28 or more in each of their last 4 games. They will be facing a Raiders offense that seems to be figuring things out. In their last 3 games, Las Vegas is averaging 33 ppg, 387.7 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. With perfect conditions inside the Caesars Superdome, I look for both offenses to move the ball at will and for this thing to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 49.5! |
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10-30-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Cowboys | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
8* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Chicago Bears +9.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 9.5-point road dog against the Cowboys. Not many times a team coming off a 33-14 win as a 8.5-point dog will stay undervalued, but that's exactly the case here with Chicago. The Bears are getting no love for their blowout win on the road against New England on Monday Night Football. Some of that has to do with what we have seen prior to that game from Chicago. A lot also has to do with the opponent being the Cowboys, who are one of the biggest public teams in the league. Not to mention Dallas has covered 5 of their last 6 and just won 24-6 as a 7-point favorite in Dak's first game back last week against the Lions. There was definitely value with Dallas when Dak was injured, as backup Cooper Rush played as well as you could have asked for. I know it was his first game back after a long layoff, but I was not impressed with Dak against a Lions defense he should have feasted on. If Detroit doesn't turn the ball over on 5 times in the 2nd half of that game, the Lions easily cover and potentially win outright. Keep in mind Detroit had 1st and Goal from the 1-yard line down just 6-10 in the 4th quarter and fumbled the ball on their first attempt to score. It was all downhill from there. It's not going to be any easier on the Cowboys offense against an underrated Bears defense. One that should only get better if Chicago continues to run the football like they have. After putting up 238 rushing yards against the Commanders, the Bears had 243 rushing yards on the road against a Belichick led defense that knew coming in they just needed to stop the run to keep that offense in check. Fields looked as comfortable as I have seen him and I'm willing to roll the dice at this price that he's able to build off that performance. Give me Chicago +9.5! |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4 I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense. Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday. The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled. I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards. I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4! |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games. I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2. Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving. I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined. All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5! |
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10-29-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech -2 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2 We cashed a big play on Texas Tech -6 at home in last week's 48-10 blowout win over West Virginia and will gladly fire right back with another big play on the Red Raiders as a mere 2-point home favorite against Baylor this week. I've been on Texas Tech a lot this year, as I continue to feel like they are one of the better teams no one talks about. Their 3 losses this year have all come on the road to teams that at the time were all ranked in the Top 25 (all 3 still are). You could argue the Red Raiders were the better team in all 3 of those losses. They outgained NC State 353 to 270, Kansas State 473 to 459 and Oklahoma State 527 to 434. In their lone two Big 12 home games they have had, they beat Texas 37-34, outgaining the Longhorns 479 to 428. They also outgained the Mountaineers by a staggering margin of 594 to 282 in their 38-point win last week. Every team Texas Tech has played this year, they have won the yardage battle. I just feel given this stat, there's no way they should be laying less than a field goal at home here against Baylor. The Bears are just 1-2 in true road games with the lone win coming against Iowa State. They lost by 6 at BYU, who has really fallen off of late and by 3 at West Virginia, who again just got annihilated by Texas Tech. Give me the Red Raiders -2! |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12.5 v. Tennessee | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 46 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats +12.5 I will gladly take my chances with Kentucky as a 12.5-point road dog against Tennessee on Saturday. I just feel like this is a few too many for the Vols to be laying in this spot. Tennessee has really taken the SEC by storm early on in 2022. The Vols are 7-0 and with their 52-49 win over Alabama, there's plenty of talk about this team being good enough to dethrone Georgia in the SEC East. Well it just so happens that massive game against the Bulldogs is looming next week. I just have to think given how well it's been going for the Vols, they are going to have a tough time giving Kentucky their full attention in this game. Keep in mind a loss here and a win over Georgia and they are still in the drivers seat to make the SEC title game, as they would hold the tie-breaker over the Bulldogs. On the flip side of this, I got to believe the Wildcats are going to be jacked up for this game. Let's also not ignore just how close Kentucky is to being undefeated. In their 3-point loss at Ole Miss, they fumbled it away not once but twice in the redzone in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The other loss was to South Carolina, where star quarterback Will Levis didn't play. On top of all that, Kentucky has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week. We have seen the Vols struggle with what I feel are lessor teams than Kentucky, barely beating Pitt 34-27 and escaping with a 38-33 win over Florida. Neither of which they won the yardage battle. It would not surprise me at all if Kentucky were to pull off the upset. Give me the Wildcats +12.5! |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +4.5 v. South Carolina | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Missouri Tigers +4.5 I will gladly take the 4.5-points with Missouri on the road against South Carolina. I just feel like this is a great spot to sell-high on the Gamecocks. South Carolina comes into this game having won 4 straight and all the sudden ranked No. 25 in the country. While the Gamecocks are by no means a bad team, I also don't think they one of the 25 best teams in the nation. South Carolina's 3 non-conference wins are against Georgia State, Charlotte and S Carolina St (FCS). In their two losses they lost by 14 at Arkansas and by 41 at home to Georgia. Their last two wins have come in SEC play, but one of those was against Kentucky without star quarterback Will Levis and the other was last week's win at home over a Texas A&M team that is in shambles. To me I just think it has the Gamecocks way overvalued here, as I don't think they should be laying more than a field goal against a Missouri team that has flashed some serious potential of late. While the Tigers are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and the only win being by a mere 3-points at home against Vandy, They lost by just 3 at Auburn, gave Georgia the scare of a life in a 4-point home loss and lost by just 7 as a 10.5-point dog at Florida. Missouri has been a dog 3 times in SEC play and covered all 3. South Carolina hasn't even been a favorite in a single SEC game up to this point. They were 9-point dogs at Arkansas, 25-point dogs at home to Georgia, 4-point dogs at Kentucky without Levis and 3-point dogs at home to Texas A&M. Simply put, they got no business laying more than field goal here. In fact, I like Missouri to win this game outright. Give me the Tigers +4.5! |
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10-29-22 | Florida +23 v. Georgia | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 71 h 18 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Gators +23 I'll take my chances with Florida covering as a 23-point dog against Georgia on Saturday. This is one of the bigger rivalries in college football and is held annually on a neutral field. I just feel like given how much this game means to the Gators, easily their biggest game on the schedule coming into this year, there's just too much value to pass up at this price. You don't want to completely ignore the stats, but I do think they are less of a factor when handicapping a rivalry game of this magnitude. Florida is going to throw the kitchen sink at Georgia in this game and while the Gators are just 4-3, they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. They also went on the road back in late September and gave Tennessee all they can handle, losing by a final score of 33-38 and outgaining the Vols 594 to 576. That outcome along is enough reason to think Florida can at the very least keep this within 22 points. The other big thing for me is the magnitude of next week's game against Tennessee for the Bulldogs. That game is shaping up to where the winner will be in the driver seat to represent the East in the SEC title game, while the loser will have to sit and hope that they have done enough to still get invited to the CFB Playoff. Give me the Gators +23! |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -1 | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas State Wildcats -1 I will take my chances with Kansas State as a mere 1-point home favorite against Oklahoma State. A lot of people are going to think the line is off. To them it should be the No. 9 ranked Cowboys who are favored against the No. 22 ranked Wildcats. I don't think that's the case at all, as I feel this line should be closer to what it opened as with K-State as a 3-point home favorite. For me it really comes down to the defensive side of the football, where I think the home team has a massive edge in this game. K-State comes into this game giving up just 19.7 ppg and 375 ypg and that's come against teams who average 27.9 ppg and 416 ypg. It's also a defense that is even that much tougher to score on at home, where they are allowing 14.3 ppg, 325 ypg and a mere 4.6 yards/play. As for Oklahoma State's defense, they are giving up 28.7 ppg and 451 ypg vs teams who on average allow 30.3 ppg and 413 ypg. In the Cowboys last 4 games they have given up 457 total yards to Baylor, 527 total yards to Texas Tech, 510 total yards to TCU and 523 total yards to Texas. I know they have won 3 of those 4 games, but they could just as easily be 1-3 in those games, as the trailed Texas Tech by 9 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter and Texas by as many as 14. You just can't make a living winning like this and I just feel like it's going to finally catch up to them against a very hungry K-State team on Saturday. Give me the Wildcats -1! |
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10-29-22 | Northwestern v. Iowa -11 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa Hawkeyes -11 I'm going to lay the 11-points at home with the Iowa Hawkeyes against the Northwestern Wildcats. A lot of people are probably going to think I'm crazy laying double-digits with an Iowa team that has been one of the worst offensive teams in the country thru the first two months of the season, but I love the Hawkeyes in this matchup with the Wildcats. I'm not about to sit here and say Iowa's offense is any good, but I do think people overlook just how difficult the schedule has been for the Hawkeyes offense this year. Iowa's last 3 opponents all rank in the Top 5 in the country in total defense for this season. Ohio State being No. 2, Illinois being No. 1 and Michigan being No. 5. They have also faced two other Top 10 defense in Rutgers at No. 7 and Iowa State at No. 9. Not to mention they opened the season against South Dakota State, who is currently the No. 1 ranked team in the country at the FCS level and ranks third in the FCS in total defense. Northwestern comes into this game ranked 97th in the country in total defense, giving up 410 yards/game. They are also allowing 29.5 ppg and 442.5 ypg in Big Ten play. Keep in mind that's with them holding Penn State to just 17 in a monsoon. The only other team they have held under 31 points this season is Miami (OH). The Wildcats also feature one of the worst run defenses in the country, giving up a staggering 189 ypg on the season and 222.8 yards/game vs FBS opponents. In the two games this season Iowa has been able to rush for more than 100 yards, they have scored 27 points. I also think the offense will likely see a full game with Alex Padilla at quarterback. Padilla replaced starter Spencer Petras in the loss to Ohio State. Petras has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks I can remember. Not saying Padilla is the answer, but Iowa's offense desperately needed a change under center. With all that said about this potentially being a breakout game for Iowa's offense, I believe the Hawkeyes could win and cover this spread with their defense alone. Iowa's defense is special. For them to be giving up 16.1 ppg, 278 ypg and 4.1 yards/play with how bad that offense has been is truly remarkable. The Hawkeyes should make life a living hell for a Northwestern offense that hasn't been much better than Iowa's in 2022. Wildcats are only scoring 18.6 ppg. This is also a Northwestern offense that has struggled to take care of the football. The Wildcats have a staggering 17 turnovers in 6 games and have turned it over at least 2 times in all 6 games. Not many defenses in the country who are better at creating turnovers than Iowa's. This to me has blowout written all over it. Give me Iowa -11! |
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10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 58 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5 I will gladly take my chances with West Virginia cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against No. 7 ranked TCU. Most are going to feel like this is a short number to be laying with the Horned Frogs, as TCU comes into this game a perfect 7-0, while the Mountaineers just embarrassed in a 48-10 loss at Texas Tech this past Saturday as a mere 5-point dog. This to me is all about the spot. On one hand we should have a hungry and highly motivated West Virginia team looking to bounce back from their worst showing of the season. On the other hand we have a TCU team that has to be running on fumes right now. The Horned Frogs just finished up a 4-game stretch, where every team they played at the time of the game were ranked in the Top 20 (Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St and Kansas St). They also are coming off two exhausing come from behind wins in their last two games. Two weeks ago TCU was able to erase a 17-point deficit to force OT and eventually beat Oklahoma State 43-40. Last week they trailed K-State by 18-points before rallying to win 38-28. I think it's going to be tough for them to not suffer a letdown here against West Virginia, especially after how bad the Mountaineers looked last week. Thing is, Morgantown is no easy place to play. Just ask Baylor, who lost at West Virginia a few weeks back. TCU has also not been nearly as impressive away from home. While the Horned Frogs are 3-0 SU on the road, they are getting outgained on average 455 to 451 away from home and those 3 games have come against Colorado, SMU and Kansas. I'm confident J.T. Daniels and the West Virginia offense will be able to score enough to keep this close enough to cover and maybe even win outright. Give me the Mountaineers +7.5! |
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10-27-22 | Utah v. Washington State +7.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Washington State +7.5 I'll take my chances with Washington State cashing as a 7.5-point home dog against the Utes in Thursday's Pac-12 action. I just feel like this is way too many points for Utah be laying on the road in a prime time game. Pullman is no easy place to play for opposing teams. Cougars have covered 3 straight at home vs Utah, winning two of those outright. The game that really stands out to me is their home game against Oregon back on 9/24. Washington State would end up losing that game 41-44, but should have won outright. The Cougars were up 34-22 with less than 5 minutes to play and had never trailed before Oregon scored 3 times in less than 3 minutes to steal the win. Given what the Ducks have done to every other team since that ugly loss to Georgia, that performance tells you a lot about this Cougars team. I really think it speaks volumes to their defense. Because they ended up giving up 44, people overlook that Oregon had just 22 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It's really hard to run on this Washington State front and their passing game on offense should be able to exploit a struggling Utah secondary. This is also not the same dominant front we have grown accustomed to with the Utes, as they are giving up 143 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry on the ground. Give me Washington State +7.5! |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 46 | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: OVER 46 I'll take my chances with the OVER 46 between the Ravens and Bucs. No one is going to be thinking OVER in this matchup. The UNDER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay games this season and the last thing we saw from the Bucs was them scoring just 3 points against the Panthers. UNDER has also cashed in 4 straight games for Baltimore. Everyone is going to be on the UNDER in this game, yet we have only seen this total get higher as we get closer to kickoff. The total opened at 43.5. I'll gladly side with the big money, as I was already leaning towards a higher scoring game. While it hasn't always been the case this year, these TNF games often end up with a few more points on the board because of how hard it is for these defenses to get right physically on just 3 days of rest. We saw it last week, when everyone was on the Cards/Saints UNDER at just 43 and that game ended up with 76 combined points. As far as this game is concerned, I feel pretty good about Baltimore's offense moving the football. Tampa Bay's run defense has been a weakness, which plays right into the strength of the Ravens offense. On top of that, the Bucs secondary is decimated. Starting safety Logan Ryan is on IR, stud safety Antoine Winfield has been ruled out, as has starting corner Carlton Davis and top backup corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. Maybe I'm putting too much faith into Tom Brady and what looks like a broken Tampa Bay offense, but I think the Bucs are going to bounce back in a big way from last week's pathetic showing against the Panthers. It's not like Tampa Bay didn't move the ball. Bucs only had one 3-and-out the entire game vs Carolina. The run game has been one of the worst performing units not just this season, but ever. Not saying they are going to go off, but they are facing a depleted front 7 of the Ravens, who are down nose tackle Michael Pierce and stud defensive end Calais Campbell. Baltimore secondary has also been exploitable this year. Opposing QBs are completing 67.3% of their attempts against them. Last week Jacoby Brissett completed 22 of 27 (81.5%). It's do or die for Brady and the Bucs offense. Give me the OVER 46! |
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 7 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Seahawks/Chargers OVER 50 I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 50 between the Seahawks and Chargers. I've had a lot of success with the OVER in Seattle games this season. I cashed in on the OVER 3 straight weeks when they combined for 50 against the Falcons, 93 against the Lions and 71 against the Saints. I also successfully avoided to taking the OVER last week in their 19-9 win over Arizona. Simply put, I'm not overreacting in the slightest to what this team was able to do last week against the Cardinals. Division games have a way of producing some strange results and more times than not because the two teams are so familiar with one another, they tend to be lower scoring. Nothing for me has changed in terms of how I view this Seattle team. I still think they have a very underrated offense and one of the worst defenses in the league. I give them little to no shot at slowing down this Chargers offense on Sunday. LA is coming into this game off a pretty bad offensive showing against the Broncos on Monday Night Football, as they managed just 19 points and 297 total yards. That's really not all that surprising when you look at how well that Denver defense has been playing. So much attention is being paid to the struggles of the offense with Russell Wilson, people are ignoring the fact that Denver has held 5 of their 6 opponents to 17 or fewer points. The one thing that has really caused Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense problems is when teams have been able to create pressure via the blitz. Seattle's one of the worst blitzing teams in the league. Herbert should have a field day in this game, regardless if Keenan Allen is back or not. On the flip side of the ball, I think this Seattle offense will be able to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is not the same without Joey Bosa on the field. LA is also atrocious against the run, giving up 5.6 yards/carry vs teams that on average get 4.7 yards/carry. Seattle comes in averaging 5.3 yards/carry vs teams that only give up 4.4 yards/carry. I think both teams have a legit shot to eclipse the 30-point mark in this game. Give me the OVER 50! |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos -1 | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 46 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SHOCKER: Denver Broncos -1 You might think I'm crazy backing the Broncos with how they have struggled of late, but I just can't help myself here with Denver basically at a pick'em in this one. Just a few weeks ago this line would have been pushing a touchdown. Now after the Jets big road win over Green Bay and Denver coming off another awful offensive showing on MNF, the line has been way over-adjusted. The one thing that is getting way overlooked with this Denver team is their defense. The Broncos have held 5 of their 6 opponents this season to fewer than 20 points and yet are just 2-4 in those games. I think their defense and playing at home is enough to carry them to a win in this game. I also think as bad as the Broncos offense has been, there have been some flashes of what they could become. This will never be the elite offense we all expected when Denver landed Wilson in the trade with Seattle, but I'm confident it won't continue to be as bad as it's been. The Jets have went from being a team everyone thought was terrible to now having to play with expectations. That can be a difficult thing to do and it would not surprise me in the least if New York laid an egg in this game. Keep in mind this is their second straight game on the road and 3rd time in the last 4 weeks they are playing on the road. Not to mention they got a big home game against their hated rivals in New England looming on deck next week. Give me the Broncos -1! |
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10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 39 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Detroit Lions +7 I like the value with the Lions catching a full 7-points on the road against the Cowboys. I just feel like Dallas is coming into this game way overpriced because of Dak's return from injury. Everyone is just assuming that the Cowboys are going to be better because he's back, but I gotta see it to believe it. The offense did not look good with him in Week 1 and it was like they ran a completely different offense with Cooper Rush. They just try to force the pass too much with Dak. I also don't love the spot for Dallas, as they put in a lot to last week's big division showdown with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. While the Cowboys' could be a bit flat, we should get an A+ effort from the Lions in this one. Detroit is coming off of their bye week and should be extremely motivated given they went into their bye with a 29-0 loss at New England. The offense did play well against the Patriots, but they were without Swift and star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown was playing at less than 100%. Both are expected to be on the field Sunday. Detroit is a team that also just doesn't go away and have thrived in this spot under head coach Campbell. Lions are 9-2 ATS under Campbell as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me Detroit +7! |
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10-23-22 | Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Green Bay Packers -4.5 I might be kicking myself tomorrow afternoon after this game gets going, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Packers laying less than a touchdown at Washington. This is a bad Commanders team that is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball. Forget about the Packers offensive struggles for a second. Green Bay is giving up just 299 total yards per game. Simply put, this is a big time buy-low spot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has lost 2 straight games. First it was the 2nd half collapse against the Giants in London, then it was an absolutely brutal showing at home against the Jets. If this team is anything close to what we thought coming into the year, they should respond in a big way in this game. I know they failed in this spot last week after their loss to the Giants, but it's worth noting that the Packers are a dominant 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss. Green Bay is also 8-2 ATS last 10 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 4-1 ATS last 5 (doesn't happen often) when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Packers -4.5! |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 40 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 I really like the Jaguars as a 3-point home favorite. The books are begging the public to take the Giants in this one. New York is 5-1 and getting all kinds of praise from the media after knocking off the Packer and Ravens the last two weeks. Jags on the other hand are just 2-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak. It makes no sense that Jacksonville is a field goal favorite here. That tells me the books really like the Jags in this one and I'm on board. As good a story as the Giants have been, they are not exactly playing like a 5-1 team. In fact, this team is a lot closer to being 1-5 than most people realize. New York trailed the Titans 0-13 at the half in Week 1 and wound up winning the game 21-20 on a late TD. They barely squeaked by with a 19-16 win at home against an awful Panthers team. They led the Bears just 14-12 late in the 3rd quarter of a 20-12 win. They erased a double-digit 2nd half deficit in London in a 27-22 win over Green Bay. Last week they were down 10 midway thru the 4th quarter to the Ravens and won the game 24-20. I just think it's going to catch up to this team at some point and we should be getting the very best the Jags have to offer with them having lost their last 3. Even though they have taken a step back from their early season success, I still think this is a solid Jags team. Give me Jacksonville -3! |
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10-22-22 | Pittsburgh v. Louisville OVER 55 | 10-24 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 39 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pitt/Louisville OVER 55 I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Pittsburgh. I look for both of these offenses to be able to move the ball up and down the field. Louisville has scored 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. The Cardinals are averaging 36.0 ppg, 518 ypg and 6.7 yards/play at home this year. Pitt's defense has allowed at least 26 points in all 4 of their games this season vs Power 5 teams. The Panthers can also light up the scoreboard. Pitt is putting up 35.0 ppg, 431 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Playing on the road has not hindered their offense, as they are scoring 34.0 ppg, putting up 419 ypg and averaging 6.8 yards/play away home this year. Louisville's defense is giving up just 22.3 ppg, but we have seen them struggle against the better offenses, giving up 31 to Syracuse, 35 to Florida State and 34 to Boston College. OVER has gone an impressive 20-7 in Pitt's last 27 games on Saturday, as the books just haven't been able to set the number right. OVER is also 9-2 in Pitt's last 11 after playing at home and a perfect 6-0 the last 3 seasons when Louisville is coming off a win by 17 or more. Give me the OVER 55! |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota v. Penn State -4 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 53 h 6 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions -4 I will gladly take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Gophers on Saturday. This to me is a great time buy-low on Penn State after last week's embarrassing 17-41 loss at Michigan, where they allowed the Wolverines to run for 418 yards. You can bet it was not a fun week of practice for the Nittany Lions leading up to this game. I'm confident we are going to get an A+ effort here from Penn State at home, especially with this being a prime time game under the lights. I also think this Minnesota team is a good fade right now. The Gophers have been way overpriced in their last two games. They lost 10-20 as a 8.5-point home favorite against Purdue and then coming out of their bye they lost 14-26 at Illinois as a 6-point favorite. Note that game against the Illini wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate, as Illinois outgained them 563-269. I just don't see how that Gophers offense will be able to go on the road under the lights against a motivated Penn State team and keep this close. Keep in mind prior to giving up all those yards on the ground against Michigan, the Nittany Lions had been great against the run. If you can slow down Minnesota's run game, there's really not much their offense can do. I think this line at the least should be a touchdown. Give me Penn State -4! |
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10-22-22 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -6 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Smart Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders -6 I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech covering the 6-point spread at home against West Virginia. This to me is a great spot to buy-low on the Red Raiders after back-to-back road losses to K-State and Oklahoma State. Not to mention Texas Tech is coming off of their bye week, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for this game. It's also a good sell-high spot on the Mountaineers after their big upset win over Baylor. I just don't see West Virginia going on the road and making a game of it with how much their defense has struggled to get off of the field. The Mountaineers come into this game giving up 44.3 ppg, 486 ypg and 7.5 yards/play in Big 12 play. They have been absolutely torched thru the air, as opposing QBs are completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 10.4 yards/attempt. That defense will be up against a Texas Tech offense that is putting up 44.3 ppg and 518 ypg at home this season. Red Raiders' offense is built around a potent passing attack that comes in completing 65% of their attempts for a staggering 365 ypg. Texas Tech is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents on average by almost 20 ppg. Give me Texas Tech -6! |
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10-22-22 | Duke +9 v. Miami-FL | 45-21 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils +9 I'm going to take the 9-points with Duke on the road against Miami. I've had a lot of success backing the Blue Devils this season. I'm a perfect 3-0 when backing Duke this year and have not went against them. Expectations couldn't have been much lower on the Blue Devils coming into this season. Most had Duke as one of, if not, the worst teams in the ACC and their season win total was set at just 3. They have already surpassed their win total, as they come into this game 4-3 and could very easily be 5-1. They lost in OT at Georgia Tech and gave up a late TD drive in a 35-38 loss to UNC last week. You really have to tip your cap to first year head coach Mike Elko, who came over after spending the last 3 years as the DC at Texas A&M. Elko inherited a defense that was awful in 2021, giving up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg and has them allowing just 22.3 ppg and 402 ypg thru 7 games. New offensive coordinator Kevin Johns also deserves some love. Duke finished last year averaging just 22.8 ppg. They are scoring 32.9 ppg, putting up 435 yards/game and averaging 6.5 yards/play. They have gotten much better QB play than last year and are running the ball extremely well. Duke is averaging 5.5 yards/carry, a full yard better than what their opponents are giving up on average. So while this team is greatly improved on both sides of the ball, I believe they remained way undervalued in the market because of just how low expectations were. It also helps they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. It's the exact opposite for Miami, who has proven to be one of the most overrated teams in 2022. Miami was ranked No. 16 in the country to open the season. They climbed to No. 13 after a couple cupcake wins to open the season vs Bethune and Southern Miss. They have lost 3 of their last 4 since with the only win coming by 6 against a bad Virginia Tech team. They are just 1-5 ATS, which includes a shocking 31-45 loss at home to Middle Tennessee as a 26-point favorite. I really feel like when you dive into the numbers for these teams, there's just not a lot that separates these two. If anything you could argue Duke has been better. Blue Devils are +0.6 yards/play better than what their opponents allow -0.1 yards/play worse on defense. Miami is -0.1 yards/play worse on offense and -0.2 yards/play worse on defense. Give me Duke +9! |
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10-22-22 | Syracuse +13.5 v. Clemson | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Syracuse Orange +13.5 I'll take my chances with Syracuse as a 13.5-point road dog against Clemson. I'm well aware that the Orange are going to be the public side in this game and rarely will you find me backing a public dog, but there are certain instances where I think it's acceptable. To me I just feel like this line is not so much the books trying to beg you take Syracuse, but more of a tax bettors are being forced to pay on Clemson right now. The Tigers are a massive public team and simply put, there's going to be premium on them when they are playing well and Clemson comes into this game 7-0 SU, ranked #5 in the country and off 3 straight covers. Syracuse is 6-0 and ranked No. 14 in the country, but the big difference with them is they came into this season with almost no expectations. We saw just how little the market respected this team last week, when they were 5-0, ranked #18 and just a 2.5-point home favorite against a NC State team that was down starting quarterback Devin Leary. I just think when you really look at the numbers, there's no reason for Clemson to be laying double-digits in this matchup. The Tigers are scoring 38.6 ppg vs teams that give up 28.0, which is a +10.6 above average. They are giving up 19.7 ppg vs teams that average 25.5 ppg. They are gaining 6.0 yards/play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards/play. Syracuse is scoring 36.0 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 30.0 ppg. They are allowing 13.2 ppg vs teams that score 21.4 ppg. Orange are gaining 6.6 yards/play and allowing 4.6 yards/play. Keep in mind these two teams have played a very similar strength in schedule to this point. We have seen Syracuse give Clemson trouble in the past when they are going well and as crazy as it might sound, I think they can win this game outright. Give me the Orange +13.5! |
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10-22-22 | Houston -3 v. Navy | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 38 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Houston Cougars -3 I'm going to lay the 3-points with Houston on the road against Navy. I've bet against the Cougars a decent amount so far and a big reason for that is I thought they were way overvalued coming into the year. This to me feels like a fair price on Houston and I just love the spot for them. Last time we saw the Cougars they had a miraculous 33-32 win at Memphis. After trailing by double-digits the majority of the game, Houston scored 2 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of regulation (think Jets vs Browns in Week 2 of the NFL). That's a win that will get everyone on the same page and it just so happened to come right before their bye week. This has to feel like a defining point of their season. I would be shocked if we didn't get the best the Cougars have to offer in this game. The other big thing with the bye is that it allowed them 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's triple-option. They have also played Navy each of the last 7 years, so it's not quite a shock to the system like it is for other teams. Navy has covered each of their last 4 games, but they were getting double-digits in 3 of them and the other was +4.5 at home vs Tulsa. I just don't trust that defense for the Midshipen. They are giving up 6.4 yards/play and are getting torched thru the air with opposing QBs completing 66.3% of their attempts with a 9.7 average. Houston's Clayton Tune just threw for 366 and 3 scores in their win over Memphis. Would definitely lean OVER as well in this game. Give me Houston -3! |
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10-22-22 | Iowa +30 v. Ohio State | 10-54 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 37 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Early Bird ATS MASSACRE: Iowa Hawkeyes +30 I will take my chances with Iowa as a massive 30-point underdog against Ohio State on Saturday. As bad as the Hawkeyes are offensively, this is too many points for them to be catching in this matchup. I'm not so sure it's even a lock that the Buckeyes score 30 points in this game. That's how good this Iowa defense is. The Hawkeyes come into this game allowing just 9.8 ppg. Sure the schedule hasn't been overly tough, but those teams on average are scoring 23.2 ppg. The Hawkeyes are holding their opponents on average 14 points below what those teams typically score. If they can replicate that, that would put Ohio State down to like 35 points from their 48.8 average. That means all we would need is a mere 7-points from Iowa to get the cover. Ohio State's defense is good, but they are giving up 15.7 ppg. If Iowa can get to that mark (16), it would take 47+ from the Buckeyes for us to lose. I also think you got to look at how well Iowa played in their game against Michigan, especially in comparison to what we just saw the Wolverines do to Penn State this past Saturday. Iowa held Michigan to just 27 points and 327 total yards. The same Michigan offense that just had 41 points and 563 total yards against the Nittany Lions. It probably isn't going to be pretty and we may need the backdoor to be open, but I feel good about Iowa keeping this within the number. Give me the Hawkeyes +30! |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
10* NFL - Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Saints/Cardinals OVER 43.5 I love the OVER 44.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, as we have the Saints visiting the Cardinals. There has been nearly no offense in these Thursday matchups the last two weeks. First it was the 12-9 OT win for the Colts against the Seahawks in Week 5. Then we saw the Commanders prevail 12-7 last week. I believe that is definitely playing into the number being much lower than it should be. I also think the total here is being impacted by what we saw last week with Arizona's offense in a 9-19 loss at Seattle. It's not so much they lost, but the fact that the Cardinals couldn't even reach double-figures against a Seattle defense that came into that game viewed as one of the worst defensive teams in the league. It is worth noting that Arizona did have multiple drives into Seahawks territory that resulted in no points. The offense also figures to get a HUGE boost this week with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. I also think the Saints defense is being way overvalued. New Orleans has not played well at all on that side of the ball the past few weeks. In their last 3 games the Saints are giving up 30.0 ppg, 362.7 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. I also think people are sleeping a bit on this Saints offense because it's Andy Dalton at quarterback. New Orleans has scored 25 or more in 3 straight games. Arizona is giving up a staggering 28.0 ppg, 395 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Give me the OVER 43.5 |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech OVER 47 | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Thursday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Ga Tech OVER 47 I'll take my chances with the OVER 47 in Thursday's ACC matchup that has Georgia Tech hosting Virginia. I just feel the total here is too low. It's hard to expect offense when you have two teams that have struggled to score. Georgia Tech is scoring just 17.3 ppg and Virginia is barely better at 17.8 ppg. One thing that gets overlooked with those scoring outputs is that both of these teams have faced a number of strong defensive teams to start the year. Virginia's opponents on average are only giving up 21.1 ppg and the Yellow Jackets' opponents are allowing 22.5 ppg. Virginia's defense is only giving up 24.8 ppg, but to me that is misleading. Their first 3 games were against Richmond, Illinois and Old Dominion. Fighting Illini are a good team, but are not a team that lights up the scoreboard. They did hold Syracuse to 22, but that was aided greatly by 4 Orange turnovers. In their last two games they have allowed 38 to Duke and 34 to Louisville. You also have to look at last year's meeting between these two teams. Neither defense had an answer for the opposing offense in a 48-40 Virginia win. The two combined for over 1,200 yards with both teams going for 240+ on the ground and 300+ thru the air. I don't think it's asking a lot for them to get to 50 in this one. Give me the OVER 47! |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Broncos +5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos catching 5-points on the road against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Denver in this game. The Broncos haven't even come close to resembling the team that we expected to see when they landed Russell Wilson in a trade this past offseason. As bad as the offense has looked, I don't think it's in as bad a shape as what it's being made out to be. Denver has actually moved the ball well at times. They are gaining 343.6 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They have just been historically bad whenever they get in the red zone. They simply can't have that bad of luck in the red zone the rest of the way and I think this has the potential to be a breakout game for them. The Chargers defense has not been playing well at all of late. In LA's last 3 games, they are giving up a staggering 30.0 ppg and 400.7 ypg. The bigger thing to note is that the struggles have come against the likes of the Jaguars, Texans and Browns. On the other side of the ball, LA's offense has one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, but he's playing behind a banged up offensive line that has struggled some since losing starting left tackle Rashawn Slater. Denver has some pass rushers that should be able to exploit that o-line and one of the better secondaries in the game. Broncos are only giving up 177 passing yards/game. Division games have a way of coming down to the wire and I see this being one of those games that isn't decided until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. That makes Denver an easy play for me catching north of a field goal. Give me the Broncos +5! |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas City Chiefs +3 I will take the Chiefs as a 3-point home dog against the Bills in arguably the most anticipated regular-season game of the year after what took place last January between these two teams in the playoffs. All you are going to hear this week is about how Buffalo is going to get their revenge on KC after letting one get away in their 36-42 OT loss to the Chiefs. The biggest talking point being the Bills allowing Mahomes and the Chiefs to get a game tying field goal with just 13 seconds to work with. What people are quick to forget in that game is the Chiefs had a 23-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter. KC outgained the Bills 552 to 422. Not to mention Buffalo got as good a game out of a WR as you could have with Gabe Davis catching 8 passes for 201 yards and 4 scores. I just don't see KC letting Davis beat them over the top in this one. I also think that while the Chiefs secondary hasn't been great at times, KC's getting back stud rookie corner Trent McDuffie for this game and their pass rush compared to last year is vastly improved. I also think that for as much as Buffalo wants to win this game, the same could be said for Kansas City. All you have heard all offseason and thru the first 5 weeks is how good this Bills team is. How they are the team to beat and how Josh Allen is a lock for MVP. I don't think it's sat well with this team at all and there's no question that Patrick Mahomes takes notes on what people say. As good as Allen is, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and he'll do everything in his power to get them a win in this game. I think getting a field goal at home is too good to pass up. Give me the Chiefs +3! |
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10-16-22 | Panthers +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +10.5 I love the Panthers as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 6. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot with Carolina, who just fired head coach Matt Rhule and it looks like starting quarterback Baker Mayfield won't play with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's ugly loss to the 49ers. All of that only makes me like the Panthers that much more in this spot. Teams always seem to respond with a huge effort in that first game after a head coach is fired and it certainly felt like Rhule had lost this team. As for Mayfield, I'm not so sure he should be playing if he was healthy. He's been awful thru the first 5 weeks and it doesn't feel like he's got a great rapport with his teammates. You also got to believe the inability of the offense to get anything going has worn on the defense, as they got talent on that side of the ball. I'm counting on Mayfield not being able to play, as I think the offense needs a new face. At the very least it's not a downgrade going from Mayfield to backup PJ Walker. On the flip side of this, I believe we are still seeing the Rams being way overvalued by the books after their Super Bowl win last year. LA is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, yet they haven't been more than a 2-point dog in any game. The offense relies way too much on Cooper Kupp and they not only can't run the ball, they don't even try to establish the run anymore. They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one game. It's hard to win by double-digits when you aren't explosive on offense. Keep in mind that as bad as Mayfield and the Panthers offense has looked, they come into they are scoring 18.6 ppg. The Rams are averaging a mere 16.0 ppg. Both teams are averaging an identical 5.2 yards/play. I not only think Carolina will cover, I think they got a real shot here to win outright. Give me the Panthers +10.5! |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 51 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Seattle Seahawks +3 I will gladly take the Seahawks as a 3-point home dog against the Cardinals in Week 5. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out Seattle thus far this season. Everyone thought it was crazy that the Seahawks traded away a franchise QB the caliber of Russell Wilson, yet it's Wilson and the Broncos offense that is struggling while Seattle's offense is thriving under Geno Smith. If it wasn't for the defense being so bad, the Seahawks could easily be sitting here at 4-1. While the defense scares me to death in this matchup, I love Seattle here as a division home dog against a Cardinals team that is overrated and in a horrible spot. I'm not saying the defense is going to play well, but there is reason to think they will be competent in this matchup. With Arizona being a division rival, they know what Kyler Murray and that offense want to do. I also think bad defenses show much better at home where they can feed off the home crowd. As for the bad spot for Arizona, I think this team could have a tough time picking themselves up off the mat after last week's gut-wrenching 17-20 loss at home to the Eagles. Philly is getting hyped up as the best team in the NFC, rightfully so. That combined with them being undefeated has everyone lining up to give the Eagles their best shot. I think a prime example of this is what we saw from Jacksonville last week after their loss the Eagles the week before. The Jags played their worst game of the season and ended up losing at home to a bad Texans team. I also think you got to look at what Arizona has done as a whole this year. They should at the very least be 1-4 and aren't far from 0-5. They trailed 23-7 in a 39-23 OT win at Las Vegas in Week 2 and were tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter of a 26-16 win over a Panthers team that has looked awful thru the first 5 weeks. I'm not so sure the right team is favored. Give me the Seahawks +3! |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a 9.5-point home dog against the Buccaneers. Great time to buy low on Pittsburgh, who is just 1-4 and fresh off an ugly 38-3 loss at Buffalo last week. We should get a big time effort from the Steelers after that awful showing. I also don't think you can overreact to that loss, given just how good the Bills are. If you remember back to MNF in Week 2, Buffalo absolutely destroyed the Titans 41-7. Everyone was saying how bad Tennessee was and the Titans have since won 3 straight games. As ugly as the final score was, 3-points was as bad as Pittsburgh could have done. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 327 yards. The Steelers offense had the ball inside the Bills 40-yard line 6 times on their first 9 drives and only came away with 3 points. They turned it over on downs twice, missed two field goals and had another drive end in an interception. They also had another drive late in the 4th quarter where they got in the red zone and turned it over on downs. I don't think people who don't follow this team closely really understand how much better this offense is with Pickett instead of Mitch Trubisky. I also don't think the defense is as bad it showed in that game. They just had no answer for Josh Allen and that passing attack. Buffalo had 5 different receivers log a catch of 26 or more yards. Gabe Davis had a 98-yard and a 62-yard TD catch. Yes, it's Tom Brady on the other side this week, but this is not the same potent Tampa Bay offense that they have been the last two years. It's been better of late, but still lacks explosion. It's a lot of dink and dunk right now. Leonard Fournette led the team with 10 receptions and 83 yards last week. That's also not a very good Atlanta defense. Really the only time this offense has shown us anything is in Week 4 in a 31-41 loss at home to the Chiefs. Big thing to note about that is the Chiefs were up 38-17 in the final minute of the 4th quarter I just think when you factor in how motivated Pittsburgh will be, how underrated the offense is coming into this game, the Bucs not being an offensive juggernaut and how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL, you have to roll the dice with the Steelers at this price. Give me Pittsburgh +9.5! |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 I will gladly take the 2.5-points with the Jaguars in Sunday's road game against the Colts. I just don't know what Indianapolis has done to deserve to be favored in this spot. These two teams played back in Week 2 at Jacksonville and the Jaguars completely dominated that matchup from start to finish. Jacksonville won the game 24-0, with their defense limiting Indy to just 218 yards and 9 first downs. The key here is we are catching the Jags in a massive buy-low spot after last week's shocking 6-13 home loss to the Texans as a 7-point favorite. No one (including myself) was giving Houston any shot in that game. Needless to say the Jags burned a lot of people last week, whether they laid the big number on the spread, teased Jacksonville down to a near pick'em or backed them in survivor. The narrative has gone from this might be one of the surprise teams in the NFL to this is a team who overachieved early and is now showing it's true colors. Maybe I'm wrong, but I still think this is a pretty good football team. They outgained the Texans 422 to 248. Scoring just 6 points was the worst possible outcome given how well they moved the ball. You just have to wonder if there was not only a lack of respect given to Houston, but also a bit of a letdown coming off that tough loss at Philly the week before. Going back to the Colts. It's a miracle Indy isn't coming into this game at 0-5 and yet they are 2-2-1. Indy trailed 3-20 going into the 4th quarter and managed to pull out a 20-20 tie against the Texans in Week 1. The Chiefs couldn't have played any worse against the Colts in Week 3 and it still took a TD in the final seconds for Indy to win that game 20-17. If KC doesn't have an awful backup kicker they lose that game. Then there's last week's 12-9 OT win against the Broncos, which I'm sure most of you saw as it was the Thursday Night Football matchup. Denver gave that game to them in on silver platter. What's made the Colts so bad is the horrific play they are getting out of their offensive line. Indy's front five hasn't shown the ability to pass protect or run block. They tried to switch up the starting unit against the Broncos and it was just as bad as before. It's not getting any better and I just don't see how you can expect them to move this ball against this Jags defense. In their first meeting, the Jaguars sacked Matt Ryan 5 times and held Indy to just 54 yards rushing. Give me Jacksonville +2.5! |
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10-15-22 | North Carolina v. Duke +7 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 99 h 49 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Duke Blue Devils +7 I will gladly take my chances with Duke catching 7-points at home against the Tar Heels. I really think the Blue Devils have a legit shot of winning this game outright. I just don't think North Carolina is as good as their 5-1 record. They were a 2-point conversion away from having to go OT against App State after going into the 4th quarter leading 41-21. They trailed Georgia State 21-28 in the 2nd half of a 35-28 win and last week somehow managed to hold on for a 27-24 win at Miami, despite getting outgained 538-470. Sure, the offense is great and quarterback Drake Maye is really good, but a lot of those numbers are a result of their defense. Just as quickly as the Tar Heels are scoring, their defense is giving it right back up on the other side. UNC is giving up 32.0 ppg, 465 ypg and 6.1 yards/play. That jumps to 37.7 ppg, 536 ypg and 6.8 yards/play on the road. It's hard to go on the road and blowout a quality team like Duke when your defense struggles to get stops. I also don't think people realize just how good this Blue Devils team is. First year head coach Mike Elko isn't getting the props he deserves. Duke won just 3 games last year and are 4-2 with their two losses coming by 8-points at Kansas and by 3 at Georgia Tech. Elko was a long-time defensive coordinator and has made his presence felt on that side of the ball. Duke is giving up just 19.7 ppg and 380 ypg, which is truly remarkable when you consider the Blue Devils returned just 5 starters from a defense that gave up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg last year. Another reason for Duke's success is they appear to have found a legit starting quarterback in sophomore Riley Leonard. He's completing 66.3% of his attempts with a 8-3 TD-INT ratio. He's also rushed for 289 yards and 4 scores. This offense should have no problem moving the ball in this game. If the defense can get some stops early, they could be in control of this game the entire way. Give me Duke +7! |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3 | Top | 42-43 | Loss | -118 | 99 h 40 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Utah Utes -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with No. 20 Utah as they host No. 7 USC. The fact that the Trojans are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 and are getting points against a lessor ranked team is enough on it's own to roll the dice with the Utes. The books are begging the public to take USC and they are doing so at close to a 65% clip. More times than not in a game of this magnitude, you want to fade the public. Not that I don't think USC is a good team and a program that is very soon going to be a consistent playoff contender under head coach Lincoln Riley. I just think people are jumping the gun a little bit with this team. Just look at the last 3 games for this team. USC needed a late TD to escape with a 17-14 win at Oregon State, they only led Arizona State 21-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and were only up 3 on Washington State midway thru the 3rd quarter. Utah comes into this season with some lofty expectations, as a lot of people were picking this team to go undefeated and make the playoffs. The Utes have got a good taste of humble pie early on. They lost a heartbreaker in their opener at Florida 26-29 and then last week lost 32-42 at UCLA. While it's early, a loss here would really put the Utes behind the 8-ball in getting to the Pac-12 title. They would be 2-games back in the loss column to USC, Oregon and UCLA and would lose the tie-breaker to both the Trojans and Bruins. I have a lot of trust in Kyle Whittingham's team to step up and deliver a big win at home with their backs against the ball. Utah is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year and are now 18-1 SU at home over the last 3+ seasons. Give me the Utes -3! |
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10-15-22 | Stanford +17 v. Notre Dame | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 98 h 7 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Stanford Cardinal +17 I can't help myself but to take the 17-points with Stanford on the road against Notre Dame. I know the Cardinal are just 1-4 with their only win coming in their very first game of the season against Colgate, but I'm not sure there's a team out there that has played a tougher schedule thru 5 games than this team. After their game against Colgate, they had to host USC and then play back-to-back road games against Washington and Oregon. They then lost at home to Oregon State, where they should have won outright. Stanford led 24-10 going into the 4th quarter and gave up a 56-yard TD pass with 13 seconds left to lose 27-28. I'm not saying I think the Cardinal are going to go into South Bend and pull off the upset, I just feel that 17 is way too many for Notre Dame to be laying. The Irish are a good, but not great team. I think the assumption here is that Notre Dame will be able to move the ball at will against this Stanford defense. I don't know if that will be the case. While the Cardinal are giving up 32.8 ppg, that's because of their schedule. Stanford's opponents on the season are averaging 33.1 ppg. Notre Dame is only scoring 25.6 ppg vs teams that on average give up 22.5 ppg. Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee is also one of the better signal callers no one is talking about. He's completed 64% of his attempts for over 1,200 yards with 10 TDs to 5 IT and has a 7-2 TD-INT ratio over his last 3 games. Notre Dame has forced a whopping 2 TOs all season. Give me Stanford +17! |
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10-15-22 | Nebraska v. Purdue -13 | 37-43 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 13 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Purdue Boilermakers -13 I got no problem laying the 13-points at home with Purdue against Nebraska. I've been on the Boilermakers quite a bit early on this year and I just think there's a big enough gap in talent between these two teams that it's just not asking a lot for Purdue to win this game by at least 2 touchdowns. What have we seen out of Nebraska to think they can make a game of this? The Cornhuskers are 2-1 in Big Ten play, but have played 3 of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern, Indiana and Rutgers. The best team Nebraska has played is Oklahoma and they lost 14-49 to the Sooners on their home field. A loss that looks a lot a worse now than it did then, especially with how bad Oklahoma's defense has been the past couple of weeks. It certainly won't be easy for Nebraska's offense in this matchup. Purdue comes in allowing 22.0 ppg and 328 ypg and have done so against teams averaging 29.5 ppg and 407 ypg. This is also a Purdue offense that is scoring 32.5 ppg on 420 ypg against teams that allow 24.3 ppg and 360 ypg. Nebraska is giving up 29.3 ppg and 449 ypg vs teams that average 24.9 ppg and 386 ypg. I just don't think people realize how good this Purdue team. The Boilermakers are two last second TD drives away from being 6-0. Penn State scored a TD with 57 seconds left to defeat Purdue 35-31 and Syracuse connected on a 25-yard TD pass with 7 seconds left to win 32-29. Give me the Boilermakers -13! |
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10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse -3 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 38 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Syracuse Orange -3 I got no problem laying a mere 3-points at home with No. 18 Syracuse against No. 15 NC State. I'm shocked that more than 60% of the tickets are coming in on the Wolfpack in this one. Syracuse is 5-0 and 4-1 ATS thru their first 5 games. While it's not come against the most difficult of schedules, their win at home over Purdue is impressive. They also have a 31-7 blowout win at home over Louisville. Keep in mind this was a team a lot of people had pegged to finish last in the ACC Atlantic. Books can be a bit slow to adjust on these historically bad programs that have a breakout season. Not only that, but I think NC State is a bit overvalued. The Wolfpack opened the season ranked No. 13 and were a lot of people's darkhorse to win the ACC. They were extremely lucky to win 21-20 at ECU in Week 1, they were outgained 353-270 in a win over Texas Tech, trailed Clemson 13-30 late in the 4th quarter before a garbage TD made the final score 20-30. Last week they were outgained 387 to 307 at home by Florida State in a 19-17 win (trailed 17-3). With how big that game was at Clemson and then having to fight and claw their way to a win last week against Florida State, this has flat spot written all over it for NC State, especially with how tough Syracuse is at home when they are playing well. This is also a well rested and prepared Orange team, as they had a bye last week and the week before had basically a scrimmage game at home against Wagner (won 59-0). If it wasn't for Clemson being on deck, this would probably be a 10* Top Play, but I'm confident there will be no looking ahead for Syracuse. Give me the Orange -3! |
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10-15-22 | Minnesota -6 v. Illinois | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 44 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Golden Gophers -6 The simple fact that we have an unranked Minnesota team favored on the road against No. 24 Illinois should be enough to have you strongly considering backing the Gophers. It would be one thing for Minnesota to be a 2-3 point favorite, but pushing a TD makes this one of the more head-scratching lines on the board this Saturday. This tells me the books not only think the Gophers win this game, but they are pretty confident it isn't going to be close. I'm with them. I've made a ton of money backing Illinois this year, but this is a really tough spot for the Illini. Not only are they coming off two huge wins, they are dealing with a ton of injuries. It's unlikely starting quarterback Tommy DeVito will be back for this game and there's a pretty noticeable drop off from him and backup Artur Sitkowski. They also figure to be missing wideout Isaiah Williams, whose 38 receptions are 16 more than the next best guy. With the gas tank on empty and down some really big pieces, I think this has the potential to be ugly. Minnesota is going to be a pissed off bunch coming into this game. Not only are the Gophers coming off a bye, the last time they played was that ugly 10-20 loss at home to Purdue. I don't think it was a fun two weeks of practice for this team, which I still think has the potential to be the best team in the Big Ten West. They also will not be overlooking this Illinois team after last year's 6-14 loss at home to the Illini as a 14.5-point favorite. It's also worth noting that Minnesota didn't have star running back Mohamed Ibrahim for that game against Purdue. He's expected to be back for this matchup. I just think with how hard it's going to be for Illinois to put up points, it's really not asking a lot of the Gophers to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Minnesota -6! |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 47 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Penn State Nittany Lions +7 I love the value here with No. 10 Penn State catching a full 7-points on the road against No. 5 Michigan. I'm shocked this line isn't closer to a field goal. Both of these teams are undefeated. Nittany Lions are 5-0 and the Wolverines are 6-0. I'm not saying Michigan isn't a really good team, I just don't think they are as good as the team from last year that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. That team had to rally from behind in the final minutes of the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 21-17 last year. Wolverines couldn't have played an easier non-conference schedule with games against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn. They have since gone 3-0 in Big Ten play, but only got by Maryland by 7 at home. They beat Iowa 27-14 on the road, but that's a Hawkeyes team that is historically bad offensively. Last week they beat Indiana 31-10, but that was a 10-10 game midway thru the 3rd quarter. Penn State was every bit as impressive as Michigan in non-conference, beating Ohio 46-10, Central Michigan 33-14 and going on the road and beating Auburn 41-12. They also won 35-31 at Purdue, who I think is better than all 3 of the Big Ten teams Michigan has played thus far. The Nittany Lions did just squeak by Northwestern 17-7 as a 25-point favorite last time out, but that was played in awful conditions and the offense turned it over 5 times. It was also two weeks ago. Penn State had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this game. I give the Nittany Lions a real shot at winning this game, but at the very least I think this a one score game in the 4th quarter. Give me Penn State +7! |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU OVER 56.5 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 75 h 6 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Friday Night SHARP STAKE: Navy/SMU Over 56.5 I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 56.5 in Friday's AAC matchup between Navy and SMU. I'm always a little hesitant taking an OVER with an option team like Navy. You need them to be able to score or they just eat up too much clock and limit the number of possessions. I just think they are going to be able to get that run game going against what I have to think is a very deflated SMU team. The Mustangs just finished up a brutal 3 game stretch that saw them play at Maryland, home vs TCU and then @ UCF. Not only that, but they got the defending champs on deck with a home game against Cincinnati next week. I just have a hard time believing the players have been 100% bought in to preparing for this Navy option attack. Keep in mind we have seen SMU give up 160 or more rushing yards in 4 of their 5 games. The only team they held under that mark was Lamar. On the flip side of this, Navy's defense is really strong up front and are not an easy team to run against. However, they are vulnerable to strong passing attacks. SMU has one of the best passing offenses in the country, averaging 355 ypg and 7.8 yards/attempt. Mustangs have scored at least 28 in 6 straight meetings in the series. The last 3 times these teams have played at SMU, the two have combined for 106 (2016), 61 (2018) and 88 (2020) points. Give me the OVER 56.5! |
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10-13-22 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 55 | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 9 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Thursday Night NO-BRAINER: Baylor/W Virginia UNDER 55 I really like the UNDER 55 in Thursday's Big 12 showdown between Baylor and West Virginia. I think this total at the very least should be in the high 40's. I just don't see this developing into a shootout. I know West Virginia has looked good offensively. They are scoring 38.2 ppg and putting up 453 ypg. However, this will be their toughest challenge to date. Even after giving up 36 to Oklahoma, which was a bit misleading), they are still allowing just 20.6 ppg and 320 ypg vs teams who average 27.1 ppg and 361 ypg. They have really been outstanding against the run and the Mountaineers ground game is down their most productive running back CJ Donaldson, who has rushed for 6.9 ypg and 6 TDs. I see a noticeable decline tp backups Tony Mathis (4.2 yards/carry) and Justin Johnson Jr. (4.7 ypg). I just have a hard time seeing WV's offense staying ahead of the chains and getting big pass plays when Baylor knows that's their only real threat to move the ball. On the other side of this, I do think the Mountaineers' defense will show up with a really big effort in this game. While I like Baylor's offense, they have looked a lot less sharp on the road (only had 289 total yards at BYU) and are going into a hostile environment at night. Bears are also an offense that seems to put together a lot of long drives. A couple games back against ISU they had 3 different scoring drives that went 10+ plays and ate up more than 5 minutes of the clock. Lastly, these two teams are both coming off of a bye week, which means they have had several extra days to prepare fo this game. More times than not that extra prep helps the defense. Give me the UNDER 55! |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH: UL-Lafayette +10.5 I love the 10.5 with Lafayette in Wednesday's stand alone college football matchup. This being the only football game on the board, the books know this will be a heavily bet game. They also know the public will likely be looking to back Marshall, as that's a team the public remembers going on the road and beating then No. then No. 8 Notre Dame 26-21 as a 20.5-point dog. As a result I think we are seeing the Herd way overpriced in this matchup. Louisiana-Lafayette is just 2-3 and comes into this game having lost 3 in a row. However, they are far from a pushover. You could make a case that the Ragin-Cajuns' are a few plays away from being 5-0. They trailed Rice 14-19 going into the 4th quarter, led 17-7 in a 17-21 loss at ULM and lost on a last second field goal to South Alabama. They come into this game last in the Sun Belt West at 0-2 in league play. They have to be feeling like their season is on the line in this game. Hard to not like an underrated dog that feels like it's back against the wall. I'm also don't think Marshall is as good as what people think. Yes, the win over Notre Dame was impressive, but given what we have seen out of both the Irish and the Herd since that game, you got to think Notre Dame coming off that gut-wrenching loss to Ohio State in Week 1 had a little something to do with how that game played out. If this team was that good, they wouldn't have followed that game up with a 31-34 loss at Bowling Green (favored by 17) and a 7-16 loss to Troy, where they didn't go over 100 yards passing or rushing in the game. Let's also not ignore that upset of Notre Dame is their only win over another FBS team. Their other two wins are against Norfolk State and Gardner Webb. It's also worth pointing out that Marshall's style of play isn't really built to blow teams out. They are a run-first offense and are very sound defensively. The fewer the possessions the more valuable the 10.5 points become. Turnovers could also be huge in this game. Ragin Cajuns' have forced at least 2 takeaways in all 5 of their games. Give me Lafayette +10.5! |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Raiders/Chiefs OVER 51.5 I'm taking the OVER 51.5 in the Raiders/Chiefs game on Monday Night Football. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. The OVER has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings in this series. Last year they combined for 55 in Las Vegas and 57 in KC. The year before they combined for 72 and 66. In those 4 starts, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are avering 39.0 ppg. Mahomes is averaging 338.0 passing yards/game and has thrown 11 TDs to 4 INTs. I don't see why this year will be any different. The Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in every game they have played this year, including 23 last week to that awful Broncos offense. KC comes into this game averaging 32.3 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 21.8 ppg. Key here is the Raiders should at the very least be able to keep this game respectable. The Chiefs defense, is much improved, but are much better against the run than they are the pass. Carr and that Raiders passing attack should be in store for a big day. I think there's a chance we could see both teams push the 30-point mark. Give me the OVER 51.5! |
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10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Philadelphia Eagles -5 Laying points on the road with a public favorite is typically a recipe for disaster in the NFL, but there's no way I'm not betting the Eagles laying less than a touchdown against the Cardinals I jus don't think Arizona is any good. I think for every great play Kyler Murray makes he makes 9 average plays. He also doesn't seem to show up early in games. I certainly don't think that Arizona offense is going to be able to do much against this Eagles defense. Philly comes in giving up just 17.8 ppg, but I think they are even better than that. They gave up 35 in Week 1 to the Lions, but most of that came in garbage time. Eagles led 31-14 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held a good Vikings offense to 7 points and gave up 8 in Week 3 to the Commanders (was 24-2 with less than 2 minutes to play). Last week they gave up 21 to the Jags, but 7 of those were from a pick six and Jacksonville had just 1 offensive TD midway thru the 4th quarter of that game. Even if Arizona's defense plays well, which I think is unlikely, I don't think their offense will do enough to cover. Cardinals defense has looked better the last 3 weeks after giving up 44 in their opener to the Chiefs, but their last 3 games have come against an AWFUL Panthers offense, struggling Rams offense and an underachieving Raiders offense. Philly's offense probably isn't as good as it's performed so far, but it's still one of the better offenses in the league. I would not be surprised if Hurts and company behind that great offensive line put up a big number in this one. Give me the Eagles -5! |
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10-09-22 | Steelers v. Bills OVER 46 | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 32 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Steelers OVER 46 I'm going to take the OVER 46 between the Steelers and Bills on Sunday. I just think there's some hidden value with the OVER in this one. Some of the value I believe stems from the Steelers finally putting to bed the Mitchell Trubisky experiment. I'd be lying if I said I thought Trubisky was going to be as bad as he's been. Before getting benched in last week's loss to the Jets, Trubisky had just 2 TD passes on 116 attempts and was only averaging 5.6 yards/attempt. The biggest thing for me is he wasn't just struggling because he didn't have time to throw. He was missing wide open guys. Simply could not read an opposing defense. If his first look wasn't open chances of a completion for any kind of significant gain was extremely low. Simply put, whether he's ready or not, the offense can't be any worse with rookie Kenny Pickett and I'm a believer it's going to be better. I know Pickett came in and threw 3 picks against the Jets, but some of that was bad luck. Those were his only 3 incompletions, as he went 10 of 13 for 120 yards, which came to 9.2 yards/attempt. Little bit of a side note here, but George Pickens is a guy I think could really see his production go up with Pickett now at quarterback. In a single half of football, Pickett connected with Pickens 4 times for 71 yards. In 3.5 games with Trubisky, Pickens had 7 catches for 96 yards. Draft Kings has Picken's over/under receiving yards for this game set at 37.5. I can assure you I'll be on the OVER. I'm also strongly considering playing him as a any time TD scorer at +130 and OVER 17.5 for his longest reception. Back to the handicap on the total here. One of the reasons I like all those Pickens' props is I don't think this Steelers defense in it's current form will be able to contain this Bills offense. Pittsburgh is still without T.J. Watt and are just not the same defense without him on the field. Not only that, but you got injury concerns up and down the lineup on the defensive side of the ball. Stud defensive end Cam Heyward is question. Their second is also decimated. Starting corner Ahkello Witherspoon is doubtful. There other starting corner Cameron Sutton is questionable, as his both starting safeties Terrell Edmunds and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bills are also dealing with a bunch of injuries on their defense, especially in the secondary where they are down both starting corner Tre'Davis White and safety Micah Hyde. This to me is also a real flat spot for the Buffalo defense. They just played their hearts out overcoming that big early deficit to the Ravens last week and have without a doubt their biggest game on the schedule looming next week at home against the Chiefs. I don't think they are going to be that sharp in this game. Give me the OVER 46. |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 21 m | Show | |
8* NFL Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT: Commanders/Titans OVER 42.5 I will take a shot on the OVER 42.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Titans and Commanders. While I certainly don't think Washington's offense is anything special, I do think that offense comes in a bit undervalued after their last two games, which saw them score just 8 points at home against the Eagles and 10 on the road against the Cowboys. You got to take into consideration just how good both Philadelphia and Dallas have been on the defensive side of the ball so far this year. The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in pass defense and are 3rd in the NFL in sacks. The Eagles are 7th vs the pass and 2nd in the league in sacks. Carson Wentz thru for just 308 yards combined in those two games. In the previous two games vs the Lions and Jaguars he threw for 300+ yards in each game with Washington scoring 28 and 27 points in those two contests. Tennessee ranks 28th vs the pass and are middle of the pack in the league in sacks. On the season the Titans are giving up 25.3 ppg, 392 ypg and 6.5 yards/play vs teams that on average are putting up 21.3 ppg, 358 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. On the flip side of this, Washington's defense isn't very good. The Commanders are giving up 26.8 ppg, 372 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Yes they are facing a Titans team that is only scoring 18.8 ppg and averaging 309 ypg, but that's come against teams who on average are giving up just 19.0 ppg and 215 ypg. I think both teams will easily get into the 20s and I could see this thing being OVER the total midway thru the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 42.5! |
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10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots -3 | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3 I'm shocked the Patriots are only 3-point favorites at home against the Lions. I know the Patriots are just 1-3 to start the year and are likely down to 3rd string quarterback Bailey Zappe. That's where the value comes from. It's not that surprising to me that the Patriots are 1-3. A lot of teams would be with their schedule. The Patriots have played road games against the Dolphins and Packers. Their other two were home games against the Steelers and Ravens. They beat Pittsburgh, but lost to Baltimore. I've actually thought New England has looked better than what I anticipated coming into the season. They outgained the Ravens 447 to 394 and had a lead in the 2nd half of that game. They also lost in OT at Lambeau. This game against the Lions will technically be Zappe's first start, but he pretty much played the whole game against the Packers. Backup Brian Hoyer was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter. Zappe didn't light it up with just 99 yards, but he did complete 10 of 15 attempts with a 25-yard TD pass to DeVante Parker. That was against a pretty good Green Bay defense. I think he'll be even better having that game experience to go off of. It also helps he's playing a BAD Lions defense. Detroit hasn't been able to stop anybody. They are giving up a staggering 35.3 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.7 yards/play. That's against teams who on average are scoring just 23.1 ppg, 368 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. The saving grace for the Lions this year has been their offense, which has been one of the best in the league. Detroit's scoring 35.0 ppg, putting up 437 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's definitely a good offense, but I'm not convinced it's as good as people think. The have feasted on two bad defenses in the Commanders and Seahawks. They only had 24 points at the Vikings and while they scored 35 against the Eagles, that game was 31-14 in favor of Philadelphia less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. The other big thing is the health of this Lions' offense. Detroit won't have stud running back D'Andre Swift. They are down one of their top wide outs in DJ Chark. Their top WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable, as is fellow starter Josh Reynolds. They also have ben hit hard with injuries on the o-line. I think the Lions offense comes back to reality and the Patriots end up winning this game going away. This is definitely a game I might end up putting a little more on before kickoff. Give me Detroit. |
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10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NFL Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Cleveland Browns +2.5 I will take my chances with the Browns as a 2.5-point home dog against the Chargers. The betting public can't get to the ticket window fast enough to lay this short number with LA, yet the line is only getting shorter. That on it's own is enough reason to bet Cleveland. With that said, I do think there's more than just a reverse line move that says back the Browns in this one. I think the perception on Cleveland has really taken a hit the last few weeks. First it was the unthinkable collapse at home to the Jets and then last week's 4th quarter meltdown in a 20-23 loss at Atlanta. This team could very easily be 4-0 right now and should at the very least be 3-1. If that were the case I think they would be favored to win this game. I also love the matchup for the Browns. That Chargers defense is really built to stop the pass, as they continue to try and figure out a way to overtake Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West. They are not good at stopping the run and are facing a Browns defense that comes in No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 187.3 ypg. I also have a lot of concerns with the Chargers offensive line, which has lost a top tier left tackle for the season in Rashawn Slater. A loss that could really show up this week. Myles Garrett is back at practice and while he's listed as questionable, I got a pretty good feeling he will play. One last thing, I think time of possession could be huge in this game. Cleveland is going to be to take the air out of the football and limit the number of possessions for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, especially given how bad LA is running the ball this year. They aren't going to be able to give their defense any kind of significant break. I could see this being very similar to the Chargers game against the Jags, where Jacksonville had the ball for over 38 minutes in a 38-10 win. Give me the Browns +2.5! |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Dolphins as they go to New York to take on the Jets in a AFC East clash. I just feel like we are getting some exceptional value with Miami because of the fact that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't going to play. I don't see much of a dropoff from Tua to backup Teddy Bridgewater. In relief of Tua last week against the Bengals, Bridgewater completed 14 of 23 (61%) attempts for 193 yards (8.4 yards/attempt). I wasn't surprised at all that the Dolphins lost that game at Cincinnati, as that was about as tough a spot as they will be in all year. Miami had just 3 days to prepare for the Bengals and were coming off a huge upset win at home against Super Bowl favorite Buffalo. A game in which their defense was on the field for 90+ snaps. There's a lot of fraud teams out there in the NFL thru the first 4 weeks and the Jets are definitely one of those teams. New York is somehow 2-0, despite having trailed by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter of every game. Outside of the final minutes of the 4th quarter when it feels like the opposing defense is letting up, the Jets offense hasn't been able to much of anything. New York comes in averaging just 19.0 ppg. They have failed to rush for 100 yards in every game. Miami's defensive numbers don't look great, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule. In their last 3 games they have played 3 of the best QBs in the league in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. In their one game against an average to below average QB, they held the Patriots to just 7 points and 271 total yards in a 20-7 win. I also think it's worth noting that the Jets somehow managed to sweep the season series with Miami last year. The Dolphins are not going to overlook this game and a lack of focus is the only thing I think could keep Miami from winning this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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10-09-22 | Texans v. Jaguars -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -7 I absolutely love the Jaguars as a mere 7-point home favorite against the Texans in Week 5 of the NFL. The Jaguars were really gaining a lot of steam going into last week's big showdown at Philly. In their previous 2 games they had beat the Colts 24-0 at home and rolled the Chargers 38-10 on the road. It started off great against Philly, as Jacksonville jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, but it was all Eagles from there. Philadelphia scored 29 unanswered points and went on to win the game 29-21. Not only that but the Jags managed just 219 total yards and turned it over 5 times. Sure it doesn't look good, but that's about as bad as Jacksonville could have played and yet they still only lost by 8 despite all the offensive struggles and turnovers. Let's also not ignore the fact that game was played in the rain, which I think really benefited the Eagles and their strong run game. I always like to back good teams who are coming off a bad game, especially when they are facing a bad team like they are here with the Texans. Had Jacksonville won that game, who knows if they would have taken this game seriously. They certainly will having lost the way they did. I know the Texans have been respectable thru their first 4 games, but their first 3 games were against the Colts, Broncos and Bears. While they did tie Indy 20-20, it's worth noting that the Colts offense that couldn't have looked much worse in their 3 other games put up 517 total yards on the Texans. They also trailed 7-27 at the Chargers last week before eventually cutting it 3 and losing by 10. I'm not so sure this isn't the worst team in the league. I don't see Houston's offense being able to get anything going against a pissed off Jacksonville defense and I don't see the Texans being to slow down the Jaguars offense. Give me the Jags -7! |
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10-08-22 | Oregon v. Arizona OVER 69.5 | Top | 49-22 | Win | 100 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Arizona/Oregon OVER 69.5 I love the OVER 69.5 in Saturday's late night action out of the Pac-12 between No. 12 Oregon and Arizona. I'm not so sure the books can set a total high enough for this one. If it wasn't for the fact that the Ducks scored just 3-points in that ugly opening loss to Georgia, I think it would be at the very least in the mid 70s. In the 4 games since getting completely shutdown by the defending champs, Oregon has put up 70 points and 604 total yards against Eastern Washington, 41 points and 439 yards on BYU, 44 points and 624 yards on Washington State (Cougars have allowed 20 or fewer in every other game) and 45 points and 515 yards in last week's blowout win over Stanford. It feels like anything less than 40 points against this Arizona defense would be a disappointment. In the Wildcats two conference games, they have allowed 49 points to Cal and 20 points to Colorado. In Cal's 3 other games vs a FBS opponent they have scored a combined 46 points. The Buffaloes 20-points they scored on the Wildcats was a season-high. Arizona is giving up 31.2 ppg vs teams who on average score 24.9 ppg. They key here is think the Wildcats have the talent at quarterback and skill positions to put up enough points to push this thing well past the mark. Arizona has scored at least 31 points in all but one game against a very good Mississippi State defense. They are averaging 481 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. Oregon's defense has been solid in their 3 home games, but they gave up that 49 points on a neutral site to Georgia, which is looking worse and worse with how the Bulldogs have struggled offensively of late and 41 at Washington State. This could very well end up being the highest scoring game on the board this Saturday. Give me the OVER 69.5! |
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10-08-22 | Washington State v. USC OVER 65.5 | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL KNOCKOUT: USC/Washington St OVER 65.5 I don't see Washington State and USC having any problem eclipsing the high total here of 65.5. I'm a bit shocked this total isn't pushing 70 given the 41-44 game between Washington State and Oregon a couple weeks back. That to me is the biggest indicator of how this matchup will play out. USC is every good offensively as the Ducks and Oregon not only scored 44 points they put up 624 total yards. Yes, the Cougars have held their other 4 opponents all under 20 points, but those opponents were all bad offensive teams in Idaho, Wisconsin, Colorado St and Cal. If USC didn't have that ugly offensive showing on the road at Oregon State a couple weeks back where they only managed 17 points, I think this total would easily be in the 70s because the Trojans have scored at least 41 in every other game. I just think the Beavers were lucky to only give up 17 in that game. In just the 1st half of that game, USC had the ball just 5 times. Really only 4, as one of those drives started with less than a minute to play in the 1st half. They turned it over on downs on their opening drive, missed a FG on their second drive after getting into the redzone and had to settle for a field goal on another drive. They got as far as the Oregon State 32-yard line before punting on their opening drive of the 2nd half. They finally got it going with two TDs in the final 20 minutes of play. Not only do I think that Washington State won't be able to stop USC from scoring, especially on the road, but I think the Cougars can do some damage of their own offensively. The Trojans are not as good defensively as the numbers would suggest, as their defense has feasted off a turnovers. USC has a staggering +14 TO differential thru 5 games. If Arizona State can go on the road and put up 25 points against USC, Washington State at the very least should be able to match that. I think they get into the 30s, as I think we could see the Trojans come out a bit flat here looking ahead to next week's big road game at Utah. Give me the OVER 65.5! |
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10-08-22 | Iowa v. Illinois -3 | Top | 6-9 | Push | 0 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE YEAR: Illinois Fighting Illini -3 I love Illinois as a mere 3-point home favorite against Iowa. Illinois is a team I was extremely high on coming into this season. They were way better than expected in 2021, which was the first under current head coach Brett Bielema. They got a lot of key pieces back from that team and made a huge upgrade at quarterback with Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito. It was really all this team was missing, as they had a solid rushing attack and very underrated defense (allowed just 21.9 ppg last year) last year. Illinois has started out the 2022 season 4-1 and really should be 5-0. They couldn't have played much worse in a 20-23 loss at Indiana, yet still it took a 12-play 75-yard TD drive with less than a minute to play for the Hoosiers to win that game. They made a real statement last week, going on the road and beating Wisconsin 34-10. The biggest thing for me is that for as good as Iowa is defensively, they are even worse offensively. I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Hawkeyes against this Illinois defense, which comes in allowing 8.4 ppg, 235 ypg and 3.9 yards/play. Keep in mind in Iowa's 27-10 win at Rutgers a couple weeks back, they were actually outgained 361-277 by the Scarlet Knights. If not for 2 defensive TDs, they very well may have lost that game outright. I also think it's a bit of a letdown spot for Iowa, who just played a Top 5 team at home, which also happened to be the same team they lost to in last year's Big Ten title game. Give me Illinois -3! |
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10-08-22 | Washington -13.5 v. Arizona State | 38-45 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 32 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS Blowout: Washington Huskies -13.5 I got no problem laying 13.5-points on the road with Washington against Arizona State. I know this is a bit of a square play, but I just don't think the number here is near enough for the Sun Devils to cover. Arizona State is 1-4 to start the year with their only win coming at home against a FCS opponent in Northern Arizona. They do have a trio of losses against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 15 in Oklahoma State, Utah and USC. Thing is, they weren't competitive in any of those games. They were outgained 465-354 by the Cowboys, 465-267 by Utah (was 34-6 with less than 5 minutes to play) and 485-331 by USC. I just don't know how the Sun Devils are going to generate enough offense to keep this under a 14 point margin. On one side you have a Washington offense that is one of the best in the country. The offense wasn't at fault in their loss at UCLA last week. Huskies are scoring 41.6 ppg and averaging 507 ypg vs teams who on average are allowing 28.8 ppg and giving up just 413 ypg. Just to compare that with Arizona State's offense, the Sun Devils are scoring 23.2 ppg and putting up 345 ypg vs teams that are allowing 26.1 ppg and 373 ypg. Homefield is not a big deal in this one, as I think most of the Arizona State fans have given up on this team. I like a motivated Huskies team coming off their first loss to make a statement in this one. Give me Washington -13.5! |
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10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5 I really think we are getting some big time value with Texas Tech as a 9.5-point road dog against Oklahoma State. I think it's worth noting that I cashed a 10* Top Play last week with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point road dog at Baylor. The biggest reason I liked that play was the revenge angle for Oklahoma State after getting upset in the Big 12 title game last year by the Bears. The thing is, prior to that game I think people were a little hesitant on the Cowboys and how good they were given their easy schedule to start the year. I believe that validation now has them way overpriced against a Texas Tech team that I've really been impressed with this year. The Red Raiders are 3-2, despite having played 4 ranked teams in 5 games. Their two losses were a 14-27 loss at NC State, where they outgained the Wolfpack 353 to 270. The other loss was a 28-37 loss at K-State, where they outgained the Wildcats 473-459. Turnovers absolutely killed them in both of those games, as they turned it over 4 times in each loss. That's definitely a concern going into this game, but they are facing an Oklahoma State defense that despite a soft schedule has only forced 4 turnovers total in 4 games. I also think the Oklahoma State defense is not anything close to the defense that carried this team to the Big 12 title game last year. The Cowboys are giving up just 23.3 ppg, but that's come against teams who on the season are averaging just 23.9 ppg. They are allowed 397 ypg vs teams that total just 356 ypg. They face a Texas Tech offense that is scoring 35.0 ppg and averaging 476 ypg vs teams that only give up 27.2 ppg and 394 ypg. I also think there has to be a bit of a letdown concern here for Oklahoma State. I can't underestimate how big that game was to them against Baylor and they got what could be a massive road game on deck against undefeated and currently No. 17 ranked TCU. It would not surprise me at all if Texas Tech won this game. Give me the Red Raiders +9.5! |
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 44.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 41 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 44.5 I'm going to take the UNDER 44.5 in Saturday's Big Ten matchup between West rivals Wisconsin and Northwestern. This one shouldn't need a ton of explanation, but I'll go ahead and break it down for why I like a low-scoring game. It's not been a good start to the season for Wisconsin. The Badgers just lost 10-34 at home to Illinois to fall to 2-3. They also lost at home to Washington State 14-17. It was enough to make a change at head coach. Paul Chryst has been shown the door and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is now the interim. With what feels like a make or break point of their season, I would be shocked if the Badgers didn't show up with their best effort. I just have a hard time seeing this awful Northwestern offense being able to do much of anything offensively in this game. The Wildcats were gifted 5 turnovers last week against Penn State and still only managed to score 7 points. The key here is I still think there's serious problems with the Wisconsin offense. Take away the 38 points they scored against a FCS foe 38 and the 66 they put up on New Mexico State, the Badgers are averaging just 15 ppg. Northwestern is only giving up 24.8 ppg and that's come against teams who on average are putting up 30.3 ppg. Give me the UNDER 44.5! |
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10-08-22 | Purdue +3.5 v. Maryland | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 I will take my chances with Purdue as a 3.5-point road dog against Maryland on Saturday. I just think it's time to sell high on the Terps. Maryland has started the season 4-1 and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. I think a lot of people verify this start because Maryland went on the road and competed for 60 minutes in a 27-34 loss to Michigan. I get the Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in the country, but I'm not so sure they as good as people think. Michigan couldn't have started with an easier schedule in their first 3 games and while they got the win and cover last week at Iowa, they didn't dominate like you would expect. Maryland's two best wins are against SMU by 7 and by 14 at home to a down bad Michigan State team. One of the biggest things that gets overlooked with last week game against the Spartans is the Terps only managed to score 6 points in the 2nd against a Michigan State defense that can't defend the pass. As for Purdue, the Boilermakers are a couple of plays away from being 5-0 and at the very least ranked in the Top 15. Purdue lost 31-35 at home to Penn State in their opener, giving up a game-winning TD with less than a minute to play. Outgained the Nittany Lions 426-406. They also 29-32 at Syracuse, where the Orange scored a game-winning TD from 25-yards out with just 7 seconds to play. Last week Purdue reminded everyone how good they are by going into Minnesota and beating the Gophers 20-10 as a 8.5-point dog. I like the Boilermakers to do the same and win this game outright, but I also think that if Maryland were to win this game, it won't be via a blowout, which makes the 3.5 so valuable. Give me Purdue +3.5! |
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10-08-22 | Michigan v. Indiana +23 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indiana Hoosiers +23 I'm going to roll the dice with Indiana as a 23-point home dog against the Wolverines. I'm just not convinced Michigan is as good as people think. The Wolverines couldn't have played an easier 3-game start to their season with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn on their schedule. They only won by 7 at home against Maryland as a 17-point favorite in their first real test of the season. While they did win and cover at Iowa last week as a 10-point favorite, they did not dominate that game like you would expect given the Hawkeyes horrific offense. I'm not saying they aren't going to beat Indiana on the road, I just don't think they are going to run away with this thing like the line suggests. The Hoosiers to be are still being viewed like the team that went just 2-10. Indiana is a much improved team this year. They are 3-2 with their only two losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and Nebraska. They are scoring 27.2 ppg, which is nearly a full 10 points more than they averaged last year (17.3 ppg). The defense is also been decent, giving up just 30.4 ppg vs teams averaging 32.8 ppg. This to me is also a bit of a flat spot for Michigan, who has be feeling pretty about themselves after that big road win at Iowa. Could have a hard time not looking ahead to next week's big home against an undefeated Penn State team that is ranked #10. Give me Indiana +23! |
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10-08-22 | Texas -7 v. Oklahoma | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Texas Longhorns -7 I'm going to lay the 7 points with Texas in their annual matchup with Oklahoma, as the two teams face off at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas early Saturday. Even though the Sooners come in having just lost 34-41 at home to K-State and 24-55 at TCU, I still think the public looks at this line and gravitates towards a full touchdown with Oklahoma. I see it the opposite. In fact, I think Texas should be a bigger favorite than they are and I'd be surprised if this line doesn't get bigger as we get closer to kickoff. One of the big reasons I think the line will move, is I don't think Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel is going to play. Gabriel is listed as questionable, but he suffered a concussion on vicious hit while taking a knee on a run. It's pretty rare we see a guy take that kind of hit to the head and play 7 days later and I think it's even less likely given all that's taken place with Tua in the NFL the last two weeks. I don't know that Gabriel would have kept me from playing Texas in this game, but I do think him not being on the field only increases the likelihood that the Longhorns win this game by double-digits. Backup Davis Beville was just 7 of 16 for a mere 50 yards in relief of Gabriel last week against TCU. Considering this Texas defense is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry, holding teams 1.2 yards/carry under their season average, I really wonder how Oklahoma will score enough to keep this game close. The other big thing in this game that I don't think is getting enough hype is Texas getting back starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has not played since going out in the Alabama game. I could be jumping the gun here and giving Ewers too much respect on a small sample size, but I firmly believe Texas would have beat the Crimson Tide had he not got hurt and would be coming into this game 4-0 and ranked in the Top 10, instead of 3-2 and not ranked at all. I think Ewers and this Texas offense is going to go up down the field against this Oklahoma defense. In their loss to K-State, they gave up 41 points and 509 total yards. The same Wildcats offense that could only manage 10-points and 336 yards at home against Tulane the game before. Then they give up 55 points and 668 total yards to TCU and were lucky to only give up that much. The Horned Frogs had 41 points and 479 total yards at the half of that game. The one thing that I think could be our downfall with this play is if Texas were to overlook this game because of how bad the Sooners have looked and Gabriel not playing. I just don't think that will be the case. The Longhorns haven't won in this series since 2018 and have sufferent some tough beats the last two years. They lost 45-53 in a 4OT thriller back in 2020 and then last year lost 48-55 after leading 28-7 in the 1st quarter (outscored 25-7 in the 4th quarter). Give me Texas -7! |
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10-07-22 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 57 | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 102 h 59 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Friday Night Total ANNIHILATOR: Houston/Memphis OVER 57 I'm going to take the OVER 57 in Friday's American Athletic showdown between Memphis and Houston. I just don't see these two teams having much of problem getting to 60 points. The OVER is 4-1 in Houston's 5 games this year with the only game not going OVER being last week's game against Tulane. A lower scoring game was to be expected against the Green Wave, as Tulane was down to their 3rd string QB and are a team that likes to try to wins games by taking the air out of the ball with their run game and defense. Each of the previous 4 games for Houston all saw at least 61 points scored. Big reason for that is this Houston defense is not very good. The Cougars are giving up 34.0 ppg, 410 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They are giving up 274 passing yards/game and 7.1 yards/play. Their secondary gave up 337 yards thru the air to UTSA, 351 to Texas Tech and 334 to Rice. Memphis is a little more run heavy than they have been in the past, but should be able to really do as they please offensively in this game. Tigers are scoring 34.4 ppg vs teams who only give up an average of 25.1 ppg and are scoring 37.3 ppg in their 3 home games. At the same time, I think Houston's offense is going to be able to move the football. The offense really hasn't been the problem. The Cougars are scoring 31.0 ppg and have not faced the easiest of schedules. The only real legit offense Memphis has faced is Mississippi State and they gave up 49 points and 547 yards of total offense to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State didn't punt in that game until midway thru the 3rd quarter with them leading 35-3. Also note that despite only playing one legit team thru 5 games, the OVER is 4-1 in Memphis' games this year with the average combined score of 60.6. Give me the OVER 57! |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -3 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Denver Broncos -3 I think we are getting an exceptional price here with the Broncos laying only a field goal at home against the Colts. The public perception here is we have a couple of teams that are not as good as what we thought coming into this year. Almost everyone was picking the Colts to win the AFC South and there was plenty of buzz about Denver being that team that dethrones the Chiefs in the AFC West. After the first 4 weeks of the season, it's up in the air if these two teams will even make the playoffs. For a lot of people, they will have a tough time feeling good about betting either of these teams, which is why I think we are getting a good price here. I'm way more concerned about the Colts going forward than I am the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, who I think will only get better as Russell Wilson gets a better understanding of the offense and his new weapons, I'm not sure how Indy is going to turn this thing around. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts offensive line play has been brutal. They are 27th in the NFL in rushing at 87.8 ypg and Matt Ryan has been sacked 15 times. Their receiving corps lacks a go-to guy and for the time being are without running back Jonathan Taylor, who was really the guy who made this team what it was last year. Keep in mind the run game is what made this team great last year. They finished 2021 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 149.9 ypg and were T-9th in sacks allowed at 32. Now Taylor is out with a ankle injury. I just have a hard time seeing that offensive going into the thin air of Denver on just 3-days of rest and performing well against a Broncos defense that is outstanding in the secondary and Top 10 in sacks. Not saying it will be easy for Wilson and that Denver offense against a pretty good Indianapolis defense, but I got a lot more faith in them being able to sustain drives and most importantly finish them off with TDs. Give me the Broncos -3! |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Wednesday Night CFB ANNIHILATOR: SMU Mustangs +3 Give me SMU +3 on the road Wednesday Night against UCF. This game was originally suppose to be played last Saturday. They pushed it back to Sunday because of the hurricane, but decided it was best to push it back a few more days to Wednesday. It can be hard predicting how a team will respond to a situation like this, but I just feel like there's too much value with the Mustangs at this price to pass up a wager on SMU. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Mustangs so far this season. They went on the road to open their season and destroyed North Texas 48-10 and followed that up with a 45-16 win over Lamar. They have lost their last two games to fall to 2-2, but the losses were a 27-34 setback at Maryland and a 34-42 loss at home to TCU. Nothing to be ashamed with those two losses. Maryland is currently 4-1 with their only loss being a 27-34 defeat at No. 4 Michigan. SMU was not outmatched against the Terps. In fact, they outgained Maryland 520-439 with a 30-16 edge in first downs. TCU is 4-0 and fresh off an absolute beatdown of No. 18 Oklahoma. Horned Frogs only outgained SMU 487-476 with SMU holding a 27-21 edge in first downs. As for UCF, they are 3-1 to start the year. They have a 56-10 win over SC State, 40-14 win over FAU and most recently a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech. The lone loss being a 14-20 defeat at home to Louisville. At the time the loss to the Cardinals wasn't viewed as a bad loss, but Louisville has really been a disappointment this year. They are just 2-3 and just lost 33-34 at BC as a 14-point favorite. I just don't think UCF has the offensive fire-power to go score for score with this high-powered Mustangs offense. SMU has one of the best passing attacks in the country behind junior signal caller Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 1,385 yards and 12 TDs. SMU as a team is averaging 38.5 ppg, 506 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. The thing that I feel gets overlooked with SMU is their defense. They are only giving up 25.5 ppg, despite facing two potent offenses in Maryland and TCU. You might be saying UCF's defense is pretty good too. The Knights are only giving up 13.5 ppg and 315 ypg. However, the only offense they have faced with a pulse is Louisville and I just haven't been that impressed with the Cardinal offense. Give me SMU +3! |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: San Francisco 49ers PK I'm going to back the 49ers as a pick'em at home against the Rams. The 49ers are off to a disappointing 1-2 start with ugly losses on the road to the Bears and Broncos. San Francisco has showed little to no signs of life on offense, which a lot of people are going to see as a big concern against the Rams. On the flip side the Rams, the defending champs, are 2-1, having won their last two after that ugly Week 1 loss to the Bills. They are also coming off an easy cover in a 20-13 win as a 3-point favorite at Arizona. Simply put, everyone is going to being picking LA to win and cover the spread. The books know this. You have to ask yourself, why aren't the Rams a bigger favorite here? It feels like to me the books are taking a stance with San Francisco. I see where they are coming from. As bad as the offense has been for the 49ers, the defense has looked incredible. The 49ers are giving up just 12.3 ppg, 227 ypg and 4.1 yards/play. You can't run on this front. SF is allowing just 2.8 yards/carry and holding teams 2.1 yards/rush under their season average. This to me is a problem for the Rams. LA is one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They are averaging just 72 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. The 49ers should be able to make the Rams one dimensional. I just don't think LA's offensive line is going to be able to hold up, if Stafford has to drop back every snap. This o-line isn't anything close to the unit they won the Super Bowl with. Stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. Starting center Brian Allen was for the foreseeable future in Week 1. Starting right guard Coleman Shelton has had to move inside to center. Problem is his backups Logan Bruss and Tremayne Anchrum Jr. are both on IR. They will also be without starting left guard Brian Allen (concussion) in this game. One other thing, I think there's this perception that the Rams are this great defensive team. They got some great players, but I question the talent around them. I still think SF is a better offensive team with Jimmy G. As bad as he looked in his first start last week, it's not easy winning at Denver and that Broncos defense is sneaky good. Rams gave up 31 to the Bills and 27 to Falcons. They held the Cardinals to just 12 points, but Arizona had a very respectable 365 total yards in that game. Give me the 49ers PK! |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders | 23-32 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos +2.5 I'm going to take the Broncos as a 2.5-point road dog against the Raiders on Sunday. This is being labeled a "must-win" for the Raiders after their 0-3 start. I'm not saying it isn't but the idea that Las Vegas has to win has the public quick to back the Raiders at home laying less than a field goal. I also think there's a lot of negativity towards Denver right now because their offense isn't performing like people expected. I believe the Broncos are the right side in this matchup and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. Denver's offense is not as bad as people are making it out to be. They should have 30+ points in their opener against the Seahawks and would have had they not fumbled twice on the 1-yard line when going in for a TD. Sure they looked bad last week against the 49ers, but San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders are not a good defensive team. Las Vegas is giving up 25.7 ppg, 376 ypg and 5.8 yards/play vs teams that are averaging just 19.0 ppg, 337 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. This is a defense that Russell Wilson and that Denver offense should be able to exploit. On the flip side of this, I really like what I've seen out of this Denver defense. The Broncos have a great pass rush and one of the better secondaries in the NFL. They have allowed 177, 154 and 179 passing yards in their first 3 games. Raiders have not been able to run the ball, averaging just 80 ypg on the ground, which means they will be trying to attack the strength of this Broncos defense. Give me Denver +2.5! |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks v. Lions OVER 47.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 0 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Seahawks/Lions OVER 47.5 I'm going to take the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's game between the Lions and Seahawks. I cashed in on the OVER 42 in last week's game between the Seahawks and Falcons. We got there with relative ease, as the two had 43 points with time to spare in the 3rd quarter. They ended up combining for 50 points without a single point scored in the 4th quarter. Seattle finished that game averaging 6.1 yards/play and the Falcons averaged 7.1 yards/play. I like the OVER in this game for a lot of the same reasons. The biggest of those being the Seattle defense and just how bad it is. The Seahawks' defense ranks 29th in the NFL, giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season. That's with them playing two really bad offenses in the Broncos and 49ers and a very average Falcons offense. This to me is the worst defense in the NFL right now. So while Detroit will be without their star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown and top running back D'Andre Swift, I see them having no problem moving the ball up and down the field. Especially with the big edge up front with the Lions top tier offensive line facing off a very bad front for Seattle. I also mentioned last week how I thought the Seahawks offense was being undervalued going into their game with the Falcons due to the fact that they had played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Broncos and 49ers. They did end up with just 23 points, but as I mentioned they averaged 6.1 yards/play. They ended the game with 420 total yards and were over 50% on 3rd down. The only reason they didn't score more is they were just 2/5 in the redzone. I don't see them having any problem moving the ball against a bad Lions defense. Detroit has given up 38 to the Eagles, 27 to the Commanders and 28 to the Vikings in 3 games. They are allowing 142 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry on the ground and giving up 408 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. This should have no problem getting to 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 I will lay the 3.5 with the Colts at home against the Titans in Week 4. While the Colts are coming off a 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs last week as a 4.5-point dog, no one is really giving this team any credit for that victory. All the talk is about how Kansas City gave that game away. No question the Colts caught some breaks in that game, but that's the kind of win that can turn things around for a team. The biggest thing that has held the Indy offense back the last two games is they haven't been able to get the running game going. Just keep in mind the Jags lead the NFL in run defense, giving up just 55.0 ypg on the ground and KC is 9th, allowing just 86.7 ypg. The Titans are 29th in the league, giving up 145 ypg and dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.8 yards/carry. This should be a breakout game for Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor and with Tennessee having to focus all their attention on him, it should also mean a big day for Matt Ryan and the passing game. On the flip side of this, we know the Titans are a team that wants to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Thing is, Henry hasn't looked himself in 2022 and Indy comes into this game allowing a league low 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. I look for the Colts to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Colts -3.5! |
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10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
10* NFL - Bookie Slaughter PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 I love the Steelers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 4. This to me is the perfect buy-low spot on Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 1-2 to start the year and because their offense has struggled to get anything going, no one really wants anything to do with this team. I believe it's created some big time value with the Steelers laying only a field goal at home against a bad Jets team. New York should be 3-0, but had that crazy comeback in Week 2 at Cleveland. With 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, the Jets have trailed 24-3, 30-17 and 27-9. They have 4 TDs thru 3 games in the final 2 minutes of regulation, which has made them appear a little more competent than they are. You might be saying, they should be a lot better with Zach Wilson expected to make his first start of the season. I'm not buying it. Wilson is going to be rusty and is facing a very good Steelers defense that knows how to disguise their coverages. I also think people are quick to ignore how well Joe Flacco was playing. Flacco was averaging over 300 yards passing per game. I'm not saying the Steelers offensive problems are going to be fixed, but this is by far the least talented defense they have faced so far this season. Not to mention the defense should help them out with plenty of 3 and outs and short fields off turnovers. This line to me is a good 3-points lower than it should be. Give me the Steelers -3! |
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10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 48 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL - ATS Blowout PLAY OF THE MONTH: Buffalo Bills -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Bills against the Ravens on Sunday. Going into last week's game against the Dolphins, everyone was talking about how good this Buffalo team is and how they got a legit shot to run the table. They end up losing 19-21 on the road to Miami and now it's like everyone isn't so sure about this team. I also think there's a lot of people falling in love with this Ravens team because of how good Lamar Jackson has been. I know a loss is a loss, but if you watched that game last week, Buffalo should have won that game by double-digits. The Bills outgained the Dolphins 497 to 212, had 31 first downs to Miami's 15 and ran 90 plays to the Dolphins 39. This is still the elite Bills team that we saw dominate the Rams on the road in Week 1 and destroy the Titans at home in Week 2. As for the Ravens, Jackson has been incredible to start this season and will likely continue to put up big numbers. The thing is, he's got no choice with how bad this Ravens' defense is. Baltimore was fortunate to only give up 9 points to the Jets in Week 1, as NY had 378 total yards in that game. Ravens then allowed 42 and over 500 yards to the Dolphins at home in Week 2 and last week let Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense go up and down the field on them. Thru 3 games the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL and it's not even close. Baltimore is giving up 353.3 ypg. The next worst is the Dolphins, who are giving up 299.3 ypg. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to score at will and while they might not be able to shutdown Jackson, Buffalo's defense is going to get more than enough stops to easily cover this spread. Give me the Bills -3! |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 53 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Stanford Cardinal +17 This to me is just too many points to pass up with Stanford, who is a 17-point road dog against Oregon. The Cardinal are getting absolutely no love from the books or the public right now, as they have failed to cover the spread in all 3 of their games, including ugly losses in their big step up games against USC (lost 28-41 as a 9.5-point dog) and Washington (lost 22-40 as a 14-point dog). It to me has created a great buy low spot on Stanford, who has the offensive fire-power to put up points on this Oregon defense. I also don't love the spot here for the Ducks. Oregon is coming into this game off a dramatic 44-41 win at Washington State. A game they trailed 15-27 going into the 4th and 22-34 with less than 5 minutes to play. The Ducks didn't take their first lead in that game until there was 1:21 left in the 4th quarter. Playing from behind like that for a full 60 minutes takes a lot out of a team. I think think with how everyone is calling for a blowout here by Oregon, it sets the Ducks up for a big letdown and you know Stanford is going to be up for this game given how poorly they have played their last two games and this being such a big rivalry. Give me the Cardinal +17! |
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10-01-22 | Virginia v. Duke -2.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 45 h 35 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils -2.5 I'm going to lay the 2.5 with Duke at home against Virginia. I just think this is way too good a price to pass up with the Blue Devils. Duke had started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS before losing and failing to cover last week in a 27-35 loss at Kansas as a 7-point dog. Even though they lost that game, I thought the Blue Devils were impressive in defeat against a much improved Kansas team. They just were able to slow down that Jayhawks offense. They aren't going to have that problem defensively against a bad and very overrated Cavaliers offense that gets way too much respect because they brought back a good QB in Brennan Armstrong. They just don't have the offensive line or playmakers on the outside that they had a year ago. They did manage to cover last week in a 20-22 loss at Syracuse as a 9.5-point dog, but were very lucky to do so. Syracuse settled for 5 field goals in that game. They had kicked 3 FGs from 32 yards or less in just the first half. They didn't find the endzone again after scoring a TD on their opening drive. Duke has a legit offense behind one of the best kept secrets in quarterback Riley Leonard. Thru 4 games, Leonard has completed 72 of 101 attempts (71.3%) and isn't just dinking and dunking it down the field. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt (T-6th) in the country. I just don't see this Virginia going on the road with that offensive line and being able to keep pace offensively with the Blue Devils. Give me Duke -2.5! |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State -3 v. Kansas | 11-14 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 6 m | Show | |
9* NCAAF Smart Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -3 I really like Iowa State as a slim 3-point road favorite against Kansas. I've been on this Jayhawks team a decent amount here to start the season and they have really delivered, going a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, which includes a 55-42 win on the road against West Virginia as a 14-point dog and a 48-30 win at Houston as a 8.5-point dog. They key here is the perception of Kansas has shifted dramatically. I believe they have come from being one of the most underrated teams to being way overvalued. The wins at West Virginia and Houston are impressive, but they far from dominated those games. They fell behind 7-21 to the Mountaineers before rallying and eventually winning in OT. They were outgained 511 to 419 in that win over WV. They were outgained 446 to 438 in their win over Houston. The win over Duke is nice, but even though the Blue Devils came into that game 3-0, that's not a Duke team that is any sort of threat in the ACC. Iowa State is the best team the Jayhawks have played and it's not even close. The Cyclones are 3-1 with their only loss coming last week in a 24-31 loss at home to Baylor. There were a few calls early in that game that really impacted the outcome of that game. I just look at the matchup. As good as Kansas' offense has been, there defense has been equally as bad. I don't see the Jayhawks being able to get off the field in this one. I just don't know if they can win a shootout with how good ISU is defensively. Cyclones are only giving up 14.5 ppg and 266 ypg and that's come against teams who are averaging 24.4 ppg and 350 yards/game. They are holding teams to 1.3 yards per rush under their season average (allowing 2.7 vs teams averaging 4). I like the Jayhawks to get a wakeup call in this one. Give me Iowa State -3! |
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10-01-22 | Northwestern +25.5 v. Penn State | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 41 h 1 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Northwestern Wildcats +25.5 I like the 25.5 we are getting with Northwestern, as they go on the road to face No. 11 Penn State. I just feel this line has been inflated to where there's too much value with the Wildcats. No one is going to want to bet Northwestern, who has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 games. All as favorites, two by double-digits. On the flip side, the public sees a ranked Nittany Lions team that is 4-0 and has covered 3 of the 4, with each of their last 3 wins coming in blowout fashion, including a 41-12 win at Auburn. All of those games for Penn State were non-confernece. Games are just played closer in conference. Let's also not ignore the fact that the Nittany Lions were extremely lucky to pull out a 35-31 win on the road at Purdue in their opener. I also don't think Northwestern is as bad as what people think. They outgained the Blue Devils 511 to 461 in a 23-31 loss to Duke. They outgained Southern Illinois 380 to 357 in a 24-31 defeat and outgained Miami (OH) 364 to 278 in a 14-17 loss. They got a decent QB in Ryan Hilinski and a very talented running back in Evan Hull, who has already accounted for 681 yards and 4 TDs. Give me Northwestern +25.5! |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | Top | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 40 h 50 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Big Money PLAY OF THE MONTH: Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 I will gladly take the 2.5-points with No. 9 Oklahoma State on the road against No. 16 Baylor. I really like the price and the spot here with the Cowboys. This is without a doubt a game Oklahoma State had circled when the schedule was announced. The last time these two teams played was last year's Big 12 title game, which saw the Bears upset the Cowboys 21-16 as a 7-point dog. It's also a game that Oklahoma State has had two weeks to prepare for after a bye last week. That's a big advantage here, especially with Baylor coming off a huge road win at Iowa State last week. I also feel like even though the Cowboys are ranked in the Top 10, this is a team that is being undervalued right now. The only game they haven't covered is their 58-44 Week 1 win over Central Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite. They may have not covered, but they led 51-15 early in the 3rd quarter and called off the dogs, getting outscored 29-7 the rest of the way. That end to that game also greatly skewed the defensive numbers for this Oklahoma State defense. The other big thing I think getting overlooked with the Cowboys and maybe the biggest reason I think they are underrated is the improvement we have seen out of starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. He's completed 65.3% of his attempts with a 9.6 average. Both career highs. He's also got a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. His career high for a season in TD passes is 20. He's also rushed for over 100 yards and 3 scores. I just think the Cowboys are the better team on both sides of the ball and should be the favorites in this matchup. Keep in mind this line suggest that if this game was played on a neutral field the line would be around Oklahoma State -1 to -2. Give me the Cowboys +2.5! |
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10-01-22 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -9 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: North Carolina Tar Heels -9 I just can't help myself here but to lay the 9-points at home with North Carolina against Virginia Tech. I think it's a great spot here to jump on the Tar Heels after last week's 32-45 home loss to Notre Dame, where everyone was calling for UNC to win that game. I'm also looking to fade this Virginia Tech team right now. I couldn't believe West Virginia (had a 10* play on Mountaineers) was only a 2-point road favorite against the Hokies last week. Mountaineers won that game 33-10, outgaining Va Tech 421 to 228. This is a really bad Hokies offense. They are scoring just 20.3 ppg and averaging 332 ypg against opponents who are giving up 26.6 ppg and 401 ypg. It's why I'm not overly concerned here with the struggles that UNC has defensively. This is also a Hokies offense that can't run the ball and could really be handcuffed if weather plays a role at all in this one. I don't think the Hokies defense is bad, but their numbers are without a doubt aided by the fact that they played 3 bad offensive team in their first 3 games in ODU, BC and Wofford. They are allowing just 85 ypg and 2.6 yards/carry on the ground, yet gave up 218 yards rushing to W Virginia. UNC comes in avarging 46.5 ppg, 502 ypg and 7.3 yards play. That's against teams who are allowing just 38.1 ppg, 447 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. They are averaging 194 yards and 5.3 yards/carry on the ground and putting up 308 ypg in the air. I think they easily get to 35 and I just don't see the Hokies getting into the mid 20s on the road. Give me North Carolina -9! |
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10-01-22 | Michigan State +8.5 v. Maryland | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
10* NCAAF - Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +8.5 I've taken it on the chin with Michigan State the last two weeks in ugly losses. First it was a 28-39 loss at Washington as a 3.5-point dog and then a 7-34 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point dog. Much like I did with the Huskies, I didn't give that Minnesota the respect they deserved. I I'm confident I'm not making that same mistake here with Maryland, especially at this price. The Terps caught the eye of a lot of people last week, as they only lost 27-34 as a 17-point road dog at No. 4 Michigan. I just think some of them keeping that game close had to due with Michigan maybe being a little overconfident and untested after 3 cupcake games to start the season. Let's also not ignore the fact that Michigan led 34-19 in that game in the 4th quarter before Maryland scored a late TD in garbage time to make it appear closer. Another big thing here is the health of Terps' starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who suffered a rib injury in the loss to Michigan. He did return after leaving that game, but clearly this family has a mindset of playing even when they are hurt after watching what's went down with his brother Tua the last couple of weeks. He's a game-time decision as of right now. So is leading wide out Rakim Jarrett, who is off to a great start after leading the team in receiving last year. I do have some concerns with the Michigan State secondary, but I just feel that a lot of their struggles the last couple of weeks were playing two of the better teams in the country in Washington and Minnesota. This also has to feel like a must-win for the Spartans, who after this play at home against Ohio State and Wisconsin before going on the road to face in-state rival Michigan. Give me the Spartans +8.5! |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA UNDER 65.5 | Top | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 9 m | Show |
10* NCAAF Pac-12 Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Washington/UCLA UNDER 65.5 I love the UNDER 65.5 in Friday's Pac-12 showdown between No. 15 Washington and UCLA. Both of these teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record. The big reason we are seeing such a big total is the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. The Huskies are scoring 44.0 ppg and 531 ypg, while the Bruins are putting up 41.8 ppg and 508 ypg. I don't think either of these teams will be able to sustain these numbers. Yes, Washington has two wins over Power 5 teams in Michigan State and Stanford, but both of those teams are bad defensive teams. Michigan State gave up 34 points and 508 total yards last week at home against Minnesota. USC had 505 yards and 41 points against the Cardinal and then only managed to score 17 with 357 total yards in 3-point win at Oregon State. As for UCLA's great offensive numbers, it's come against a super soft schedule. Bruins 4 games have come against Bowling Green, Alabama St, S Alabama and Colorado. Those teams combined are giving up an average of 38.1 ppg. The other big thing here is these two defenses are performing well. Washington is only giving up 19.0 ppg, 302 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. UCLA is allowing 18.0 ppg, 301 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. Another thing that could work against the Huskies offense, is the fact that this will be Washington's first road game of 2022. These two are going to need a minimum of 10 scores (9 TDs and 1 FG is 66 points) to get past this number. I just don't think the red zone efficiency is going to be at that level. Give me the UNDER 65.5! |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 47 | 15-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
10* NFL - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Dolphins/Bengals OVER 47 I love the OVER 47 in Week 4's NFL Thursday Night Football matchup. I think we are at the point in the season where these Thursday games on a just 3 days of rest really have an impact on the teams playing. It's just really hard for NFL players to recover in just 3 days and I feel it has the biggest impact on the defensive side of the ball, where energy and effort are so big to defenses playing well. With that said, I think we could really see Miami's defense struggle to get stops in this game. Not only are the Dolphins playing on the road on a short week, they are coming off that massive upset win against the Bills. You also can't be fooled about Miami's defense holding the Bills to just 19 points. Buffalo beat themselves in that game. The Bills had 497 yards of total offense in that game. The week before we saw Miami's defense give up 38 points and 473 yards to the Ravens. I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins are going to be able to slow down Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense, which should keep getting better as Burrow gets more comfortable after missing all that time in the offseason. At the same time, I think the Bengals will have a tough time slowing down this Miami offense. The Dolphins have two of the most electric wide outs in the game in Waddle and Hill, who can put points on the board in a blink of an eye. Sure the Bengals defense has looked good to this point, but they have played an awful Steelers offense, a Cowboys offense without Dak and the Jets. Give me the OVER 47! |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +115 v. Giants | 23-16 | Win | 115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Dallas Cowboys +115 I'm betting the Cowboys on the money line at +115. I just think it's a good spot to sell high on the Giants, who have surprised some people with their 2-0 start. Thing is, they are lucky to be 2-0. They had no business winning on the road at Tennessee in Week 1. They were shutout in the 1st half of that game and scored a TD with just over a minute to play to win 21-20. They only had 265 total yards in their 19-16 win over the Panthers. They were +2 in the turnover department and were tied 16-16 with less than 5 minutes to play. Given what we have seen out of the Titans and Panthers, I'm not sure how you think this is sustainable for New York. The offense isn't any good and while the defense has played well, they have faced two bad offensive teams. Dallas is without Dak and will have Cooper Rush at quarterback. You could argue given what we have seen that the Cowboys are just as bad an offense right now as the Panthers and Titans. I don't think it's that bad. They have played two really good defensive teams. Arguably the best defense based off the first 3 games in the Bucs. The Bengals held the Jets to 12 yesterday and while they gave up 23 to Steelers in Week 1, they were +5 in turnovers (Pittsburgh had just 267 total yards and 13 first downs). There's definitely some talented players at the skill position for Dallas and I saw enough out or Rush in that win over the Bengals to make me think he can keep this ship afloat until Prescott returns. Give me the Cowboys +115! |
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09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
8* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Green Bay Packers +1 I'm betting the Packers as a 1-point dog against the Bucs in Week 3. I just think given the current state of the Tampa Bay offense, there's too much value here with Green Bay at basically a pick'em. Who knows what Tom Brady is going to have to work with at wide receiver in this game. We know for sure he won't have Mike Evans, who is suspended for this game. Their next 5 WR's on the depth chart are Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller. All 5 of them are questionable. They have also ready lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury from a unit that was down after losing two starters from last year in Cappa and Marpet. Starting left tackle Donovan Smith is questionable and his backup Josh Wells is on IR. The offense wasn't sharp in their opener against the Cowboys. They had just 12 points in that game with less than 5 minutes to play. They scored just 20 against the Saints last week. That game was 3-3 going into the 4th and 7 of their 20 came on a 68-yard pick-six. Packers offense wasn't very good in Week 1, but the defense played pretty well against a good Vikings offense. Green Bay then held the Bears to just 228 and 11 first downs in Week 2. As good as Brady is, it's going to be really hard for TB to keep their offense on the field and finish off drives with TDs. I also think there's some value still with Green Bay due to their ugly showing in Week 1 against the Vikings. It's just what this team does. They did it last year. They lost 38-3 to the Saints and then won 7 in a row. Rodgers and the offense looked much better in Week 2 and will only get better. He is facing a top tier Tampa Bay defense, but he's one of the few QBs where it just doesn't matter how good the defense is, he's going to get his. Give me the Packers +1! |
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09-25-22 | Falcons v. Seahawks OVER 42 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Falcons/Seahawks OVER 42 I'm going to take the OVER 42 in Sunday's game between the Falcons and Seahawks. I came into the season with very low expectations for Seattle's defense. So far it's worse than I thought. Them holding the Broncos to just 16 points in their upset win in Week 1 was a complete fluke. Denver racked up 433 total yards and averaged 6.8 yards/play with 20 1st downs and a 53% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The Broncos had back-to-back drives to start the 2nd half where they fumbled the ball on the Seahawks 1-yard line. They also had at least 30 yards on every possession, punting just once. Then in their game against the 49ers they gave up 373 yards and 25 first downs, allowing San Francisco to convert 6 of 15 first downs. Keep in mind they also had no real incentive to score in the 2nd half with a big lead and this is already a team that wants to take the air out of the ball with the run game. I don't see them slowing down the Falcons in this game. Atlanta may be 0-2, but I've really liked what I've seen out of this team offensively. Marcus Mariota looks like he belongs on the field. The Falcons come into this game averaging 26.5 ppg, 146 rushing yards/game and 338 yards/game having played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Saints and Rams. The other key for me is I think the Seattle offense is better than the perception right now. They too have played their first two games against two of the top defensive teams. Say what you want about Russell Wilson and the Denver offense, the Broncos defense looks like the real deal and I would put San Francisco up their with the Bills and Chargers for the best defense in the league. I think Geno Smith and that offense will be able to generate some offense. They got no choice here but to try and go score for score with the other team and the Falcons are a definitely a defense they can have success against. Atlanta is giving up 29.0 ppg and 6.3 yards/play vs teams who on average are scoring 19.5 ppg and averaging 5.4 yards/play. Just looks at what they gave up to the Saints and Rams and how those two teams looked offensively in their other game. I'm really shocked this total is as low as it is, as I think this will easily get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 42! |
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09-25-22 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
10* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 I love the Jaguars as a 7.5-point road dog against the Chargers. If 7 is all your books is offering, I think it's worth paying a little more to get it to 7.5. I just feel like Los Angeles is getting way too much respect from the books in this game. There's not even a guarantee that Justin Herbert is going to play. I know he finished the game against KC, but it was pretty obvious the amount of pain he was in. I don't think even the extra few days they got after playing Thursday is near enough for him to be close to 100% in this game. If he guts it out, you got to think the game plan will be skewed more to the run than it normally is. There's also no guarantee he finishes the game. He takes one good shot to that rib area and he's going to be right back where he started. I really think it's 50/50 if he even plays and it's a massive downgrade from him to backup Chase Daniel. You also got to look at the status of the Chargers offensive line. Right tackle Trey Pipkins was limited in Wednesday's practice and center Corey Linsley didn't practice. We saw this offensive line really regress in that game against KC. Chiefs were getting all kinds of pressure in the 2nd half. This unit will be up against an underrated Jags defensive line that has a top tier pass rusher in Josh Allen. I also think you got to look at what have seen from Jacksonville in their first two games. They should be 2-0. They blew a 22-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in a 22-28 loss to Washington in Week 1 and embarrassed the Colts 24-0 last week. All anyone wants to talk about is how bad Indy is after that loss. No one wants to give this team any credit. I like teams who are playing well and go into a game feeling like they are being disrespected. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a legit shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +7.5! |
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09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +3 | 37-26 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 40 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New England Patriots +3 I will gladly take the 3-points with the Patriots as a home dog against the Ravens. Any time you got a Bill Belichick coached team getting points, you really don't have to do any more research. You just bet New England. The Patriots are 14-5 ATS as a home dog since Belichick took over. It's also worth noting that the Pats had to play their first two games on the road, which probably has them undervalued given their home field edge. It's definitely been a profitable spot long term, as the Pats are 30-17 (64%) ATS under Belichick after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore is also a team that I think is getting too much respect in this spot. Most will just chalk it up as a fluke that the Ravens blew that 35-14 lead in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins last week. Not me. I think Baltimore isn't quite as good defensively as what we expected them to be. You also have a banged up Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow. He says he's going to play, but it's bothering him enough he wasn't throwing at all in practice. You got to wonder if he will be as willing to run the ball with that banged up elbow. On top of that, Belichick is going to do everything he can to keep him from making plays with his feet. He's going to make Jackson beat him with his arm. I don't know that he can against this Patriots defense. No one is going to praise them for how the defense looked in last week's win over the Steelers, but I don't think they are getting enough credit for what their defense did against the Dolphins in Week 1. They held Miami to just 20 points on 307 yards. Dolphins had 42 points and 547 yards against the Ravens. Give me the Patriots +3! |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 52 | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Dolphins OVER 52 I really like the OVER 52 in Sunday's big showdown between AFC East rivals Buffalo and Miami. I know these are two division rivals and division games have a tendency to be lower scoring. I don't care. I just think the Bills are so good offensively that there's too much value at this number to not play the OVER. There's just no stopping this Buffalo offense with the way they are currently constructed and the level at which Josh Allen is playing the quarterback position. They had 31 points in their opener against the Rams and turned the ball over 4 times. They didn't punt once in the entire game against LA and not once in the 1st half against the Titans. Miami just gave up 473 yards and 38 points to the Ravens last week, letting Lamar Jackson throw for 318 yards and 3 scores on 21 of 29 passing. The big key here is I think Miami has the offensive fire-power, especially in the passing game, to go score for score with Buffalo. Even more so with the injuries that the Bills are dealing with both on the defensive line and in their secondary. Three of their top 4 defensive tackles are questionable. They are down two starting corners Tre-Davious White and Dane Jackson and both safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are not 100%. I think if we get a mere 3 TDs from Miami, this thing is going to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 52! |