Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-20 | TCU -2.5 v. Baylor | Top | 33-23 | Win | 100 | 121 h 32 m | Show |
50* TCU/BAYLOR NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (TCU -2.5) I have a feeling I'm going to be betting against Baylor a lot this year. I played against them last week with Texas and the Longhorns won 27-16 as a 8.5-point favorite (wasn't that close). In their previous game I played against them with West Virginia as a 3-point home dog and the Mountaineers won 27-21. I'll gladly lay less than a field goal with TCU on the road against the Bears this week. Baylor has one of the most anemic offenses of any Power 5 program. The only reason they are averaging 28.0 ppg instead of 18.0 ppg is because they have already played Kansas. They only had 256 total yards in their game against West Virginia and 316 last week against Texas. In both of those games they went into the 4th quarter with 7 or fewer points. TCU comes into this one having just got the doors kicked in by Oklahoma at home, losing 33-14 as a mere 7-point dog. Horned Frogs are now just 1-3 on the season, but could easily be 3-1. I think if Duggan plays the entire game and not just the 2nd half, they probably beat ISU at home and the loss against K-State could have also went their way. Outgained the Wildcats 342 to 289 with 20 first downs to 12. I just think this TCU team is so much better than their record and should be close to a TD favorite than a field goal. Give me the Horned Frogs -2.5! |
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10-31-20 | Northwestern +120 v. Iowa | 21-20 | Win | 120 | 96 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NORTHWESTERN/IOWA NCAAF ANNIHILATOR (Northwestern +120) Northwestern opened the season with a 43-3 blowout win at home over Maryland. There was absolutely nothing fluky about that outcome, as the Wildcats outgained the Terps by 330 yards (537 to 207). They racked up 31 first downs to Maryland’s 14 and dominated the ball with over 37 minutes in possession. I think a lot of people kinda look at that as what was suppose to happen. Maryland was just 3-9 last year and their only Big Ten win was against Rutgers. What they overlook is the fact that Northwestern also went 3-9 in 2019 and their only conference win was against Illinois in the finale. The Wildcats are a team I had circled coming into this season, especially after news that they would be adding in Indiana transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey. Even with 3 returning starters deciding not to play, they bring back 16 starters and really 17 when you factor in the experience Ramsey brings to a QB room that was one of the worst in the country last year. Usually when a team goes 3-9 they struggle on both sides of the ball. It was really just the offense last year. Wildcats only gave up 23.6 ppg and 336 ypg, both ranking in the Top 50 in the country. That’s really impressive when you factor how much they had to be on the field with an offense that only averaged 16.3 ppg. I think Northwestern has one of the most underrated defenses in the country and the team as a whole is flying way under the radar. If they win this game and knock off Wisconsin at home, they got a great shot at making the Big Ten title game. As for Iowa, the Hawkeyes couldn’t hang on to a 2nd half lead in a 20-24 loss at Purdue. The Hawks put up 460 yards, but could only turn it into 20 points. Big question for Iowa coming into this season was how they would replace a 3-year starter in Stanley. Sophomore Spencer Petras won the job. He ended up going a respectable 22 of 39 for 265 yards, but had 0 TD passes. Kid has an outstanding arm, but he’s got no touch. Everything is a fastball and it cost him a lot of completions. I don’t think that’s something that’s going to just develop before this Saturday. Note that Iowa went just 4-5 in Big Ten play in Stanley’s first season as a starter, before going 5-4 and then 6-3. I think the entire offense is going to struggle to get going against this strong Northwestern defense. One that I feel can keep the Hawkeyes from running it down their throat. I also don’t think the Hawkeyes are nearly as strong on the defensive side of the ball this year. Purdue had a guy run for 129 yards and O’Connell threw for 282 and 3 scores without his best receiver in Rondale Moore. Give me Northwestern +120 |
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10-31-20 | Indiana -11 v. Rutgers | Top | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 96 h 46 m | Show |
50* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -11) I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Indiana against the Scarlet Knights. I think a lot of people are going to look at this and be tempted to take Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights did just win 38-27 as a double-digit dog at Michigan State last week. They also see this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers. I see it the opposite. I think this is the ultimate sell high on Rutgers off a win against a Michigan State program that is in a full on rebuilding mode and just might be the worst team in the conference. I also think because Rutgers just won, that actually makes Indiana less likely to overlook them. Keep in mind this is an Indiana team that believes they can shock the world and win the Big Ten this year. I'm not saying they are right, but they know if they want to be that team, they got to beat bad teams like Rutgers. Because it had been so long for Rutgers just winning a game in Big Ten play, I think people ignore the numbers. The Scarlet Knights only had 276 total yards against a Spartans defense that only had 3 starters back. They were outgained by almost 100 yards and benefited a ton from 7 Michigan State turnovers. I know the boxscore wasn't great for Indiana in their win over Penn State, but I still think that's a really really good Nittany Lions team. The fact that they didn't put up big numbers and were able to win, speaks to the potential of this team. I know Rutgers is improved, but so is Indiana and the Hoosiers beat the Scarlet Knights 35-0 last year with a 557 to 75 edge in total yards. Give me Indiana -11! |
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10-31-20 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 117 h 9 m | Show | |
40* KANSAS ST/W VIRGINIA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (W Virginia -2.5) This is one of those plays you just play no matter what. Any time you have a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, you play the unranked team. I'll do just that with the Mountaineers at home against No. 16 Kansas State. I played against West Virginia last week at Texas Tech, as I didn't feel they should be laying points on the road against a pretty equal opponent. We cashed a winner with the Red Raiders, but it just as easily could have gone the other way. WV ended up outgaining Texas Tech 438 to 348. Even though they lost, I came away impressed with the Mountaineers. West Virginia has really been strong defensively and I think they can make things really difficult here on a pretty limited K-State offense that is down their starting QB in Skylar Thompson. True freshman Will Howard has decent numbers, but half his attempts came against an awful Kansas defense last week. They were pretty lucky to beat TCU with Howard and no way they pull off that upset in Norman without Thompson. Give me West Virginia -2.5! |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming +2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 81 h 28 m | Show |
50* HAWAII/WYOMING MWC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Wyoming +2) I love the value here with Wyoming as a home dog against Hawaii on Friday. I believe Hawaii is overvalued coming off a 34-19 upset win over Fresno State. At the same time, I think the Cowboys are undervalued off a 34-37 OT loss at Nevada as a 2.5-point favorite. There's no shame losing at Nevada. That's one of the most improved teams in the MWC. Wolf Pack probably should have been favored in that one. What I like about Wyoming is they were outplayed and yet still made a game of it. This is a very well coached Cowboys team under Craig Bohl and are one of the most experienced teams not just in the conference, but the entire country. When this team is playing well, they are tough to beat at home. Last three times they have finished the season with a winning record they have gone 17-3 at home with a perfect 6-0 mark last year. As for Hawaii, I think they are a quality team, but I also feel like they beat up on a bad Fresno State team. Bulldogs also made it easy on them with 4 turnovers (Hawaii +3 turnover margin). Warriors haven't had a winning road record since 2010. I just don't see them pulling off back-to-back road wins. Give me the Cowboys +2! |
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10-30-20 | Minnesota -19.5 v. Maryland | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 49 m | Show | |
40* MINNESOTA/MARYLAND NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Minnesota -19.5) I went against Minnesota last week and won easy with Michigan -3, as the Wolverines laid it on the Gophers 49-24. A lot of people liked Minnesota to in that game. I believe seeing them lose like that will have some hesitant to lay this big number. Which is saying something given how bad Maryland looked last week in a 43-3 loss at Northwestern. My opinion really didn't change on Minnesota. They are good team with some decent talent, but they were not as good as their 11-3 record last year and it simply had them overvalued against a better team. I think the Gophers respond in a big way against the Terps. Minnesota destroyed Maryland 52-10 last year. I would be shocked if they didn't score 40+ in this one. Maryland's defense is clearly lacking talent in the front 7. They let Northwestern rush for 325 yards with 6 different players recording a rush of 10+ yards. Their offense wasn't any better. Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa went 14 of 25 for 94 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. Maryland also rushed for a mere 64 yards on 21 attempts. This Minnesota defense isn't as good as Northwestern's stop unit, but it's still going to be able to get off the field. I just don't think it's asking a lot here for Minnesota to win by 20 or more points. Give me the Gophers -19.5! |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
50* COLO ST/FRESNO ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Colorado St -1) I love the value here with Colorado State at basically a pick'em against Fresno State. While the Mountain West got started up last week, the Rams' game with New Mexico was canceled (had to do with New Mexico covid rate being too high). The Bulldogs were in action and were embarrassed 34-19 at home by Hawaii. Fresno State closed as a 2.5-point favorite in that game. The positive for the Bulldogs is they put up 409 yards. The negative was they had 4 turnovers, including 3 picks by new starting QB Jake Haener. Another big negative was the defense, which gave up 552 yards and 6.6 yards/play. Most notably allowing 323 rushing yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Not the debut Fresno fans were hoping for under new head coach Kalen Deboer. Colorado State also has a new coach, though it's a more formidable name in Steve Addazio, who spent the last 7 years at BC. I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because of the fact that the Rams only went 4-8 last year. They should be greatly improved and note that while they went just 3-5 in MWC play, they were +34 ypg in conference play (Fresno -85 ypg last year). Not only does Colorado State have 15 returning starters, but they have added in several transfers, including 3 offensive linemen from BC, who should all start. They also added Miami transfer Scott Patchan on defense, who should start. Former Nebraska signee Patrick O'Brien is back under center for Colorado State. Last year was his first with the team on the field and he started 9 games, completed 62% of his pasess for 2803 yards and 13 scores. Each of his top 5 targets from last year are back. I think there's a good chance this game gets ugly in a hurry. Give me Colorado State -1! |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -117 | 56 h 9 m | Show |
50* FALCONS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -2.5) I'm not sure why Atlanta is getting so much love as a small road dog. How many times can you lose a game in the horrific fashion that they have before the fight is taken out of you. The most recent being Todd Gurley's decision to score a TD when falling down and running out the clock was 100% the play. There's been audio released from the huddle prior to Gurley's run and you can clearly hear Matt Ryan tell him to get the 1-yard for the first down and go down. Do not score. I know Gurley is one guy, but that's all it takes. One guy puts himself (he's trying to score a TD for his bonus) ahead of the team and others follow. Carolina just gets no love. Panthers already went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 23-16. Nothing fluky about that game, as Carolina had a 437 to 373 edge in total yards. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly having another monster season and this Panthers defense is better than people realize. Also, Falcons offense has been bad more than they have been good here of late. In their last 4 games they have scored 16, 16, 40 and 22. The 40-point outburst was against an awful Vikings defense. Give me the Panthers -2.5! |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
50* BEARS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -5) I'm laying it with the Rams at home against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The public is all over Chicago at this price, as they see a Bears team off back-to-back upset wins against the Bucs and Panthers, facing off against a Rams team that just lost as a favorite at San Francisco and is just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Public dogs have a way of falling flat on their face, especially in prime time games. I get the Bears are a team built to win ugly with their defense and the offense is in better hands with Nick Foles under center. I just don't think this team is as good as their 5-1 record. Clearly the oddsmakers agree or this line would be much closer to LA -3. You definitely have to look at the Rams loss to the 49ers in a different way after what we saw on Sunday with San Fran going into New England and beating a desperate Pats team 33-6. The 49ers are playing out of their minds with the injuries they have been dealt. I just wonder if the Rams didn't give them their full attention in that game. Note that the 49ers came into that contest fresh off a 43-17 loss at home to the Dolphins. While it's struggled in spurts, I like what this Rams offense has been able to do. They are averaging 6.2 yards/play against teams that only allow 5.7 yards/play. Bears only average 5.0 yards/play vs teams allowing 5.7. Rams defense only giving up 5.2 yards/play, which is better than the 5.4 mark for Chicago. Give me the Rams -5! |
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10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 30 m | Show |
50* 49ERS/PATS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -2.5) I think this is an ideal spot to buy low on the Patriots off a shocking upset loss at home to the Broncos and a great to sell high on the 49ers after an upset win at home over the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The big thing you have to keep in mind with the loss to Denver is the Patriots really didn’t get to practice for that game because of Covid. New England is set to practice today and it will be just their 3rd full practice in the month of October. I think we are going to see a huge bounce back game for the Patriots on Sunday and a big reason for that is I’m just not buying into this 49ers team being as good as people think. No one was really giving San Fran a shot against the Rams, but I actually like the 49ers in that game. A big reason for that is I didn’t think LA was all that great. The Rams were 4-1, but those 4 wins were against the 4 NFC East teams. They did lose by just 3 at Buffalo, but they also trailed 28-3 in the 2nd half of that game. I also thought it was concerning that the Rams only scored 20 points against that awful Cowboys defense in Week 1. They also had just 17 points and 240 yards against a bad Giants team. Outside if that win, the 49ers only other victories this season are against the Jets and Giants. They lost to a depleted Eagles team at home and two weeks ago were absolutely destroyed at home 43-17 by the Dolphins. When I gave out NE on the podcast back in Week 3 against the Raiders, I noted how Belichick was not going to let Las Vegas star tight end Darren Waller beat them. Coming into that game Waller had caught 18 passes for 150 yards. He was a complete non-factor, catching just 2 passes for 9 yards. They are going to do the exact same thing with 49ers tight end George Kittle in this one. I also think it’s worth noting that no one knows San Fran quarterback Jimmy G better than Belichick. He’s going to gear up his defense to not only stop Kittle, but also play to the weaknesses of Garoppolo. Give me the Patriots -2.5! |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 55 m | Show |
50* BUCS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -3) I loved Tampa Bay at -3 when this line opened. I just think this Bucs team is only getting better and last week's demolition of Rodgers and the Packers certainly suggest that. There's been some Covid issues for Oakland and the line is now -5 at most books. I still love the Bucs at that price. I think the Raiders are a fraud right now with a winning record of 3-2. Last time we saw this team in Week 5, they upset the Chiefs 40-32 in KC as a 10-point dog. The defense was torched once again and I just think the offense caught that Chiefs defense in the perfect spot. KC's D was due for a letdown after their early schedule. Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense, but this defense is the real deal. The talk after that game against Rodgers and the Packers was not about how good they were, but how they needed to prove it in their game this week against the Raiders. I just think Tampa Bay is going to win here and win rather convincingly. Play the Bucs -3! |
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10-25-20 | Browns -3 v. Bengals | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 121 h 2 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) For me I think it’s pretty simple when it comes to handicapping this Cleveland team. All you have to do is ask yourself will they be able to run the football. It was 100% the reason I gave out the Steelers last week. I knew it was going to be tough sledding for Baker Mayfield and that offense against an elite Pittsburgh run D. Cleveland managed just 75 rushing yards in that game and only 7 points. I look for the ground game to get right back in the swing of things in this game. In their 4-game win streak prior to the loss to the Steelers, they averaged 201 rushing yards/game. The Bengals are currently 27th against the run, giving up 142.3 ypg.Not great, but it could be worse. They are T-31st in the league, giving up 5.1 yards/carry. Last week they held the Colts to just 59 yards, but Indy only ran it 15 times. Note that Colts starting RB Johnathan Taylor had 60 yards on 12 attempts, which is exactly 5 yards a pop.Big reason Indy didn’t run it more, is they were down 21-0 basically a quarter into the game. The other thing to note with that game against the Colts, is the fact that Cincinnati’s defense let Philip Rivers throw for 371 yards and 3 scores. Rivers hadn’t thrown for more than 245 yards in a game all season and really looked like he was holding that team back. I think that’s a very encouraging sign for Mayfield in this game. In that Week 2 meeting between these two teams, Cleveland had 215 rushing yards and Mayfield was 16 of 23 for 219 yards and 2 scores. On the other side of the ball, Burrow is going to have to be great just to keep this close, because they aren’t going to be able to run it. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing and the Browns are 4th in the NFL, allowing just 94.0 ypg on the ground. I think Myles Garrett and that Cleveland defense will be able to pin their ears back and go after Burrow, who has already been sacked 24 times in 6 games. I just think the Bengals get a little too much love from people because of Burrow. He's really good, but this Cincinnati team is not, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the Browns -3! |
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10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans OVER 56.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 50 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/TEXANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 56.5) I think the best game in terms of entertainment is going to be the showdown between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs Deshaun Watson and the Texans. I see both quarterbacks putting on a show and for these two teams to fly past the total here of 56.5. Rodgers and the Packers got embarrassed last week by Tampa Bay's defense. Whenever a elite QB like Rodgers has an awful performance, they almost always find a way to not just play well, but play great in their next game. This Texans defense is one that GB can expose. While I expect the offense to bounce back, I don't have the same confidence with the Green Bay defense. There's still a lot of holes on that side of the ball. I expect a tough day against a surging Texans' offense. Ever since O'Brien was fired Watson and the passing game have come to life. He's getting a chance to do more and that's how it should have been. O'Brien was more about running his offense than implementing an offense to fit his talent. Give me the OVER 56.5! |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5 | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 87 h 49 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/REDSKINS NFL SLAUGHTER (UNDER 46.5) After watching Andy Dalton and that Cowboys offense struggle to get anything going against a bad Cardinals defense, I got no choice but to play the UNDER at this price, especially against an anemic Redskins offense. Now I will say I would lean Washington to win the game, but I just don't like playing a game with two bad teams. I was one that thought Dallas' offense was going to be okay with Dalton. I just didn't realize it was as bad as it is on the offensive line. That was a below-average defensive front they just faced in the Cardinals, who were without their stud in Chandler Jones. The Redskins are not below-average up front on defense. In fact, I think the defensive line is the best position group on the team, led by star rookie Chase Young. I just don't see Dalton and that Cowboys offense doing much. Redskins have their own limitations on offense. I know they will likely move the ball against this Cowboys defense, but I don't think they are going to go pass-happy with a lead. Rivera will milk that clock and secure a much-needed win for his team. Play the UNDER 46.5! |
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10-24-20 | Michigan -3 v. Minnesota | 49-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 40 m | Show | |
40* MICHIGAN/MINNESOTA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Michigan -3) I just feel the price here is too good to pass up with Michigan laying just 3-points on the road. It feels like this is the least hyped the Wolverines have been going into a season in the Harbaugh era. It's a little surprising, as it finally appears like they have found an elite QB to guide their offense after getting lackluster play at the position the last 5 years. All I hear is praise around Joe Milton and if what is being said holds true, Michigan could be a team to look out for in 2020. I know they lost some guys at wide receiver, but more times than not a good QB will make receivers look good and there's definitely talent at the position. It should also open up more running lanes. The other big thing for me, is I think Minnesota comes in way overvalued after finishing 11-2 last year. That was so much more about how easy the schedule was for the Gophers than them being elite. We saw that in their regular season finale, as they lost 38-17 at home to Wisconsin with a trip to the Big Ten title game on the line. Last year Minnesota's strength of schedule ranked around 60, while Michigan had one of the 10 toughest schedules in the country. Give me the Wolverines -3! |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
50* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas Tech +3.5) The fact that this line is close to a pick'em says a lot, as the Red Raiders come in at 1-3, while the Mountaineers are sitting at 3-1. The thing with West Virginia and their 3-1 start is they had a cupcake game to open the season against EKU. Their other two wins are at home against Baylor and Kansas, who look like the two worst teams in the Big 12. The only decent team they faced was Oklahoma State and they lost by 14. Note that's a Cowboys team that while undefeated has not looked very good and was without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. Texas Tech's first 3 conference games were at home against Texas (should have won,but lost in OT) and then on the road against K-State and Iowa State. This is going to be the best offense West Virginia has seen by a landslide, especially in terms of quarterback play. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Texas Tech +3.5! |
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10-24-20 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College -4 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 120 h 16 m | Show | |
40* BOSTON COLLEGE/GA TECH NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -4) I'll lay the short number here with the Eagles at home against the Yellow Jackets. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided loss last week. Georgia Tech was obliterated at home by Clemson 73-7, while BC lost 40-14 at Virginia Tech. Thing is the Yellow Jackets 66-point loss was every bit as bad as it looked, and really could have been a lot worse. Clemson had 52-points at the half of that game and outgained Ga Tech by 567 yards. BC on the other hand was simply done in by turnovers, as they were -5 in that department against the Hokies. Eagles were only outgained 461 to 435 and had 24 first downs to Va Techs 23. Jurkovec is arguably the best QB in the country that not everyone knows about. He threw for 345 yards and 2 scores last week and ranks 5th in the country in passing in 2020 with 1,526 yards. Georgia Tech has faced two QBs ahead of Jurkovec in UCF's Gabriel and Clemson's Lawrence. Both times they gave up over 400 passing yards. I just don't think a turnover prone Yellow Jackets offense will be able to keep pace in this one. Give me Boston College -4! |
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10-24-20 | Baylor v. Texas -8.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 15 m | Show | |
40* BAYLOR/TEXAS NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -8.5) I think this is the perfect time to buy low on Texas. The Longhorns come into this game off back-to-back heartbreaking losses. First it was a 31-33 defeat at TCU, where Texas had 1st and Goal with 2.5 mins to play and proceeded to fumble to all but end the game. In their next game they fell 45-53 in 4 OT against rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns have went from being ranked inside the Top 10 to not even ranked at all. It’s like everyone has forgot about this team. Even the betting public wants nothing to do with them, as close to 70% of the early action has been on Baylor. Some of that has to do with the line, but the books aren’t stupid. I believe they set a big number here knowing the Bears are going to have a hard time keeping this close. I just don’t know what the public sees in this Baylor team. The Bears have only played two games because of covid. They opened with a 47-14 win over Kansas and then lost in 2OT 21-27 at West Virginia. Their 47-14 blowout win over the Jayhawks looks a lot like what others are doing against Kansas, but that was a misleading score. Baylor had 2 kickoff return TDs, a safety and scored a garbage TD up 40-14 in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. What really stands out to me is they only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. In the Jayhawks two other conference games, they were outgained 593 to 193 by Oklahoma State and 544 to 157 by West Virginia. Also, they were lucky to get to OT in their loss to the Mountaineers. They trailed 14-7 with 1:51 to play in the 4th quarter. At that time they only had 172 yards of total offense. Baylor caught a big break in that late scoring drive to force OT. Baylor would have had 4th and 10, but an unnecessary roughness penalty gave them a 1st down. I just don’t think the Bears are going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Texas is going to score. Longhorns are averaging 49.5 ppg and 495 ypg. Note that’s come against opponents that are only giving up on average 30.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Give me Texas -8.5. |
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10-24-20 | Iowa -3 v. Purdue | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
40* IOWA/PURDUE NCAAF DOMINATION (Iowa -3) I like the price here with the Hawkeyes as a slim 3-point road favorite against Purdue. The Boilermakers will be without head coach Jeff Brohm because of Covid and I just think that's a big hurdle for them to overcome against an Iowa team that I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. The big question mark with Iowa is they go from a 3-year starter to an unknown at quarterback. Thing is, Iowa has what looks to be one of the better o-lines in the Big Ten and have great talent back at the skill positions. They are also rock solid on defense under Ferentz. Hawkeyes haven't allowed more than 20.4 ppg in each of the last 5 years. The other big thing here is the lack of fans. Only family members are being allowed to attend Big Ten games. I think it has the road teams showing some value, as this would be a much different handicap if it was going to be sold out Ross-Ade Stadium. Iowa is the better team on both sides. Give me the Hawkeyes -3! |
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10-24-20 | Houston -14 v. Navy | Top | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
50* HOUSTON/NAVY NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston -14) I absolutely love Houston as a mere 14-point favorite against Navy. I think we are getting a great price on the Cougars after last week's 26-43 loss at home to BYU. The end result was not great, but they did lead No. 14 BYU 26-14 late in the 3rd quarter. That's a really good Cougars team that has a future NFL QB in Zach Wilson running their offense. I just think the talent gap between Houston and Navy is substantial and I would argue the Cougars are one of the better teams not ranked in the Top 25 right now. Navy has gone 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4, but could easily be 0-5 both SU and ATS. They beat Tulane 27-24 as a 5.5-point dog despite trailing 24-0 at the half. They squeaked out a 31-29 win over Temple as a 3.5-poing dog and defeated ECU 27-23 as a 3-point favorite. This team has also lost 55-3 to BYU (which I think is a great indicator for Houston) and 40-7 to Air Force. Key here is Houston has the guys up front to stop this Navy rushing attack in its tracks and should be able to score at will offensively, as the Midshipmen are giving up a ridiculous 274 yards/game and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run this year. Navy also can't play from behind, so the margin should only grow as this one goes on. Give me the Cougars -14! |
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10-24-20 | Nebraska v. Ohio State OVER 67.5 | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NEBRASKA/OHIO ST NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Over 67.5) I think we are going to see a ton of points on the scoreboard in the Big Ten opener between Nebraska and Ohio State. Ohio State score 46.9 ppg in 2019 and are loaded once again with junior quarterback Justin Fields back. They put up 48 points and 580 yards last year on Nebraska and should have similar success against a Cornhuskers defense that only brings back 5 starters (have to replace all 3 defensive linemen and 5 total in the front 7. The key here for me is I think Nebraska is going to be able to score some points. They got 10 starters back on offense with an experienced junior QB in Adrian Martinez (21 starts). Ohio State is going to have a good defense, but I don't think it will be as good as last year when they gave up just 13.7 ppg. They lost a lot from that side of the ball, including the best defensive player in college in Chase Young. Two other factors here that I think help push this over. First, I believe Ohio State has a ton of incentive here to run up the score. They need style points to try and make up for the time missed with the Big Ten starting so late. The other is the lack of fans, which definitely makes matters a lot easier on that Nebraska offense. Play the OVER 67.5! |
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10-24-20 | Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina -6 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 116 h 47 m | Show | |
40* GA SOUTHERN/C CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Coastal Carolina -6) I'll take my chances here with the Chanticleers laying less than a touchdown at home against Georgia Southern. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this Coastal Carolina team in their last two games, which saw them knock off two of the top teams in the Sun Belt in Arkansas State and Louisiana. The Chanticleers are absolutely dominating the time of possession and should be able to do just that against the Eagles. Don't be fooled by Georgia Southern's defense coming in only giving up 19.0 ppg, as their opponents so far on average are only scoring 15.5 ppg. A lot of people want to point to how they almost won on the road against Louisiana, but I'm not as sold on the Ragin' Cajuns as others. The game I focus more on is the Eagles mere 27-26 win at home over Campbell. Note that Ga Southern trailed 20-6 in the 2nd half of that game. That's a Campbell team that Coastal dominated from the start and has since lost by 31 to App State (21-52) and 52 at Wake Forest (14-66). While traction is starting to grow on the Chanticleers, I still think there's value with this team right now. Give me Coastal Carolina -6! |
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10-24-20 | NC State v. North Carolina -14.5 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 47 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NC STATE/N CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (N Carolina -14.5) I think the line here really says it all. You don't normally see a Top 25 matchup with a team laying more than two touchdowns, especially when both teams are ranked outside of the Top 10. More times than not, the big favorite not only covers, but wins going away. That's exactly what I expect to happen in this one. North Carolina is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after last week's upset loss to FSU. Give credit to the Seminoles for getting that win, but the Tar Heels definitely shot themselves in the foot a number of times in that game. They nearly rallied from a 31-7 halftime deficit, as they lost 28-31. They outgained FSU 558 to 432. NC State is coming off a bit of a fluke win and cover over Duke, but the even bigger story is the injury suffered to starting quarterback Devin Leary. He had really been carrying this offense. Pretty big dropoff from him to backup Bailey Hockman and that's a problem because NC State must have success throwing to have any shot of keeping this close. That's because UNC is going to score at will against this NC State defense. While they haven't been terrible defensively in their last 3 games, those were against some sub-par offenses in Pitt, Virginia and Duke. In their first two games they gave up 42 to Wake Forest and 45 to Va Tech. I see the Tar Heels hitting 40+ in this one. Give me UNC -14.5! |
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10-24-20 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -114 | 115 h 59 m | Show |
50* AUBURN/OLE MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss +3.5) I love the value here with the Rebels catching more than a field goal at home against Auburn. I don't know why this Tigers team gets so much love, but to me they just aren't that great of a team. They had their hands full with Kentucky in their opener at home, were dominated at Georgia, should have lost at home to Arkansas and lost on the road at South Carolina. While Ole Miss is 1-3, two of their losses are two Alabama and Florida. They had a heartbreaking 1-point loss at Kentucky and last week lost 21-33 at Arkansas. The loss to the Razorbacks doesn't look great, but it was to be expected coming off that emotional loss to the Crimson Tide. Definitely didn't help matters that they turned it over 7 times. I look for Lane Kiffin's offense to get back on track in this one. Auburn has only forced 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined and are far from a juggernaut on the defensive side. Also, as bad as Ole Miss' defense is, I think they can get some stops against Bo Nix and that Tigers offense. Give me the Rebels +3.5! |
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10-23-20 | Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 27 m | Show | |
40* ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Illinois +19.5) I think this is too good a price to pass up with Illinois. It's taken a minute, but Lovie Smith has the Fighting Illini trending in the right direction. While they lost to Cal in their bowl game to finish up with a losing record at 6-7, that was the first time since 2014 that they got to a bowl. Their 4 conference wins were their most since they won 4 back in 2010. One of those wins was a 24-23 upset over #6 Wisconsin as a massive 30-point underdog. With 14 starters back, including 9 on offense, this should be the best team to date in what will be the 5th year under Smith. I also think there's going to be some value with road teams in the Big Ten, as family members are the only fans that are being allowed in the stadiums. Home field is huge in the Big Ten and I got lot more confidence in Illinois keeping this close in a non-hostile environment. There's also a lot of hype with Wisconsin centered around red-shirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz. Kid definitely has potential, but the Badgers offense is built for the run game. How much better can you really expect him to do than last year's starter Jack Coan, who completed 70% of his attempts with a 18-5 TD-INT ratio. Replacing the production of Jonathan Taylor won't be easy. Give me the Fighting Illini +19.5! |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa -9.5 v. South Florida | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 103 h 29 m | Show |
50* TULSA/S FLORIDA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -9.5) This line has move up to Tulsa -10 at a lot of spots and I could see this thing continuing to climb as we get closer to this game. I think we are getting big time value with the Golden Hurricane laying single digits. Tulsa had their big game against No. 8 ranked Cincinnati postponed because of positive Covid tests for the Bearcats. Having nearly won at Oklahoma State and upsetting UCF on the road, there's no question they were excited for that game against a Top 10 team. I look for them to take out their frustration against USF. I played against the Bulls last week and lost. I laid double-digits with Temple and they ended up winning by just 2. The Owls did everything in their power to make that a game. USF had 31 points late in the 3rd quarter and only one scoring drive of more than 50 yards. This USF offense is not that good. They were shutout at Notre Dame and scored just 7 at Cincinnati. They also managed just 24 against ECU at home, who they lost to by 20. I think they are going to have a miserable time scoring against this Tulsa defense. Give me Tulsa -9.5! |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* GIANTS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles -4.5) I know the Eagles are going to be a very public play, but I just can't find a legit reason to take the Giants in this matchup. I know the numbers aren't great for Carson Wentz, who has a 8-9 TD-INT ratio, but a lot of that is he's being forced to put this team on his back with all the injuries they have had on the offensive side of the ball. Losing RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz doesn't look good, but they are getting back WR DeSean Jackson and LT Lane Johnson. I actually think the injuries to Sanders and Ertz have created some value. More than anything this about who they are playing. The Giants defense is not great. Last week against a Washington team that ranked 30th in OFF DVOA and by some metrics were the worst passing offense in the NFL, they let Kyle Allen complete 31 of 42 attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores. That was with next to nothing from the running game (86 yards on 24 attempts). To me the "Football Team" is a poor man's version of this current Eagles offense. Somehow the Giants won that game, despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards (337 to 240). On the flip side of things, I question how this Daniel Jones led Giants offense will be able to move the ball. The fact that Jones is New York's leading rusher on the season with 204 yards says all you need to know about their offensive line. The Eagles still have one of the better defensive lines in the game, they are 4th in the NFL with 21 sacks and also 4th in adjusted sack rate, which factors in the number of sacks based on how often the QB drops back to pass. You also have to like the fact that the Eagles have played 5 times on TNF since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Not only have they won all 5, but they are 5-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points/game. Give me Philadelphia -4.5! |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State +14.5 v. Appalachian State | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
40* ARK ST/APP ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Arkansas St +14.5) Now that this line has creeped up over two touchdowns, I got no choice here but to take a shot with Arkansas State. I think this Red Wolves team is way undervalued because they use a two quarterback system. If you combine the stats of their two guys, people would be calling their signal caller a Heisman candidate. I know the defense hasn't looked great, but we have seen this team compete against some really good teams. They only lost by 7 at Memphis and won outright 35-31 at Kansas State. As for Appalachian State, this has been the best program in the Sun Belt for a while now, but as is the case with a lot of small schools, it can be hard to sustain that level of success. Scott Satterfield really built up this program, but he's now two years removed and last year's head coach Eli Drinkwitz left after one season. They are now on their 3rd head coach in 3 years. They beat Charlotte by 15 in their opener, but were only up 1 going into the 4th quarter. They lost ugly at Marshall, scoring just 7 points. That game against the Thundering Herd was on 9/19. They had a week off before playing Campbell, which is like having a bye. They haven't played since. It's been more than a month since this team has been tested on the field. If they aren't sharp, they could easily lose this game outright. Give me Arkansas State +14.5! |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5 v. Bills | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/BILLS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -5) I really like the Chiefs in this spot. Last week's loss to the Raiders didn't surprise me. That just felt like a game to me that KC was going to struggle to get up for. Chiefs had just played two massive games against the Ravens and Patriots, which they felt like they had to have to get the No. 1 seed. Getting that No. 1 seed is huge, as that's the only team that gets a bye in the playoffs now. I expect to see the Chiefs 100% locked in here against Buffalo, who is another one of those teams that are a contender for that No. 1 seed. I think we see that same team that owned the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back. I'm confident Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to move the ball against this Bills defense. Buffalo has really struggled on that side.As for KC's defense, I think they are going to bounce back in a big way here. This is a defense that got better and better as last year went on and prior to giving up 40 to the Raiders they had held their first 4 opponents to 20 or less. Josh Allen is the kind of QB they typically play well. Give me the Chiefs -5! |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5 | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/BUCS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 54.5) I don't know who is going to win this game. Green Bay has looked like the better team to this point, but I want nothing to do with betting against Tom Brady after a game where he's getting made fun of cause he didn't know what down it was. I believe the value here is with the OVER at 54.5. I really think both of these quarterbacks are going to put on a show and we could see both teams score in the 30s. This is not Aaron Rodgers of the last few years. This is MVP Rodgers we are seeing in 2020. Green Bay has carved up every team they have faced. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 340 against this defense earlier this season and rookie Justin Herbert was 20 of 25 for 278. Rodgers will produce. Brady and the Bucs offense was starting to get something figured out before that dud against the Bears on Thursday Night Football. I just think TB on short rest with the travel really helped out Chicago in that game. Green Bay's defense has also not been very good. It's just not getting any attention because of how good the offense has been. Packers are giving up 4.8 yards/carry (28th), while opposing QBs are completing 72.2% of their attempts with 7.4 yards/pass attempt. Give me the OVER 54.5! |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 16 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -3.5) I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at home against the Cleveland Browns. I said this last week when I took the Colts as a road favorite over the Browns, I’m not a believer in this team. I just don’t think Baker Mayfield is as good as people think. He had two second half interceptions against Indy with Cleveland leading by two scores. Now he’s going to have to be the focal point of the offense in this one, as the Steelers feature one of the league’s best run defenses. Pittsburgh is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 64.0 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry. I just don’t see the Browns offense being able to score enough to give them any shot at covering this small number. This is also not just another game for the Steelers. As much as they will downplay it, there’s no doubt they are going to come in with a different mindset for this one, as it’s the first time they will face Cleveland with Myles Garrett since he swung a helmet at Mason Rudolph that led to him being suspended for most of last year. Another big factor here is the Steelers dominance of the Browns on their home field. Pittsburgh has won 16 straight at home over Cleveland with the last loss coming in 2003, which is one year before the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Adding to this, Steelers are 23-2 against the Browns with Roethlisberger as their QB home or away. Give me the Steelers -3.5. |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 43 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/TITANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Texans +3.5) Last week we won easily with Houston -6 vs Jacksonville, as the Texans cruised to a 30-14 win. That was a big play on spot for Houston in that first game after firing head coach Bill O'Brien. What I loved is there was a clear breaking point between the players. I believe it has the Texans players out to prove that O'Brien is in fact what was holding them back. Not only is Houston playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, but this might be the most talented 1-4 team in recent years. The Texans were simply dealt as brutal a schedule as you could get to start the year. Their first 3 games were @ KC, home vs Ravens and @ Steelers. They did lose to a bad Vikings team to fall to 0-4, but I think some of that was the team no longer wanting to play for O'Brien. The Titans are a good team. However, I think it might be time to sell high. Tennessee was in the AFC title game last year, are sitting 4-0 and off a convincing 42-16 win over an undefeated Bills team that everyone was in love with. Thing is they could be sitting here at 1-3, as their first 3 wins were all by 3 or fewer against the Broncos, Jags and Vikings (all 3 of those teams enter Week 6 with 1 win). Another huge factor here is rest. Tennessee is going to be playing on just 4 days of rest. That's tough in normal circumstances. I think it's going to be even harder on a team that is short-handed because of all the guys dealing with Covid. Give me the Texans +3.5! |
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10-18-20 | Falcons +4 v. Vikings | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 33 m | Show | |
40* FALCONS/VIKINGS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Falcons +4) Last week we played on the Texans in their first game after they fired head coach Bill O'Brien and Houston delivered in a big way with a 30-14 win, easily covering as a -6 point favorite. This is a situational spot I've had a lot of success playing over the years. I just can't help myself here with Atlanta +4 at Minnesota in their first game after firing Dan Quinn. One of the reasons I believe this spot is profitable is whenever a bad team fires a coach it's like whatever happened before is tossed out the window and it's like starting a season all over. You can bank on that team playing their hearts out. I like a hungry Falcons team here. Atlanta is better than 0-5. They blew two massive leads against the Cowboys and Bears. There other 3 losses are against two SB contenders in the Seahawks and Packers and a very underrated Panthers team. As for the Vikings, they have looked a little bit better of late, but I'm still not sold on this team. They won't have Dalvin Cook this week and I still think that defense is a major liability. The other big thing here is I think this is a tough spot for Minnesota. The Vikings avoid going 0-4 with that big win over the Texans and looked like they were going to make it 2 straight with a big upset of Seattle. Mike Zimmer decides to go for it on 4th and 1 leading by 5, instead of kicking the field goal to go up 8. Seahawks make the stop and Russell Wilson goes 94 yards, converting twice on 4th down to win the game 27-26. Give me the Falcons +4! |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers -112 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -112 | 44 h 16 m | Show |
50* BEARS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -112) I love Carolina this week at basically a pick'em at home against one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in the Bears. I say that about Chicago, after I cashed with them on MNF vs Tom Brady and the Bucs. I did have some high hopes for the Bears when Foles replaced Trubisky, but we have not seen Foles look anything close to that 2nd half against Atlanta in his two starts since. Bears put up just 269 total yards against the Colts and 243 vs the Bucs. Carolina came into this season with the perception that they were going to be awful defensively. That looked to be true after they gave up 34 to the Raiders in Week 1 and 31 to the Bucks in Week 2. However, in their last 3 games they have held the Chargers to 16, Cardinals to 21 and the Falcons to 16. Panthers are quietly 5th in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 223.0 yards/game. They are bottom 10 against the run (133.4 ypg), but Chicago doesn't have a great rushing attack or passing game. Bears rank bottom 10 in both categories. I also think people are assuming this Bears defense will make life miserable for this Panthers offense. I don't think that will be the case at all. Joe Brady and Teddy Bridgewater are clicking together. Panthers are 5th in the NFL in passing (281.8 ypg). Also, no Christian McCaffrey the last 3 games. Mike Davis has been way better than expected, easing that loss. Give me the Panthers -112! |
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10-17-20 | Georgia +4.5 v. Alabama | 24-41 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 51 m | Show | |
40* GEORGIA/ALABAMA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Georgia +4.5) I'm going to take the points to be safe, but I really like the Bulldogs to finally get that elusive win over Alabama that they have been so close to getting since Kirby Smart took over (both games they were up big and couldn't hold on). The big headline coming in is that Alabama won't have Nick Saban on the field, as he can't be with the team after testing positive for Covid 19. I know the line has dropped a couple points after the news came out, but I think this is a massive blow to the Crimson Tide's chances in this game. You also have to look at the line and think about how much people love to bet Alabama. Thing is, when the books make them a favorite of less than a touchdown, things typically don't go well for the Crimson Tide backs. Since 2017 Alabama has been a favorite of less than -7 on 6 ocasssions. They are just 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in those games. People are going to want to give the edge offensively to Alabama, but it's closer than you think. While Georgia is only scoring 36.0 ppg they have done so against teams that have allowed on average just 25.8 ppg (+10.2). Alabama is scoring 51.0 ppg but it's come against teams that on average allow 41.2 (+9.8). On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia has looked great and Alabama has looked a bit suspect. Bulldogs allowing just 12.3 ppg vs teams averaging 23.4 ppg (+11.1). Crimson Tide are allowing 30.3 vs teams averaging 31.4 (+1.1). We are going to find out just how good Mac Jones is as he finally faces a legit defense and one that is considered to have one of the best secondaries in the country. Give me the Bulldogs +4.5! |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 63.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
40* N CAROLINA/FLORIDA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 63.5) I just don't feel the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's ACC matchup between No. 5 North Carolina and Florida State. After a bit of a sluggish start to the 2020 season, we got a real good glimpse of just how good this Tar Heels offense can be in last week's win over then No. 19 Virginia Tech. UNC put up 56 points with 656 yards of total offense. They did as they pleased with Sam Howell throwing for 257 yards and 3 scores and the Tar Heels rushing for 399 yards and 5 scores. That offense will now be up against a Florida State defense that has struggled against quality teams. The Seminoles allowed 52 points to Miami and 42 to Notre Dame. Both the Hurricanes and Irish had over 500 yards of total offense. The key here is that we should see FSU's offense be able to score their fair share in this one. While UNC's offense was great in their win over the Hokies. They also gave up 45 points and 495 yards to Va Tech. Would have been a lot more had they started Hendon Hooker instead of sitting him the whole 1st half. FSU's offense has also looked much better under Jordan Travis. He's really been able to stretch the field, as he's averaging 9.7 yards/completion. A major upgrade over what they were getting at the position. He can also make defenses pay with his legs. Hes rushed it 43 times for 235 yards and 2 scores. Give me the OVER 63.5. |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +7 | 28-14 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 25 m | Show | |
40* TEXAS A&M/MISS STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Miss State +7) After that big upset of LSU in their season opener, where the Bulldogs put up 44 points and over 600 yards of total offense, they have laid back-to-back eggs. First it was that ugly loss at home to Arkansas and last week they were rolled 24-2 at Kentucky. Turnovers have really plagued the Bulldogs. They had 4 turnovers against the Razorbacks and 6 last week against the Wildcats. They are now -9 in the turnover department thru 3 games. That’s about as bad as you can do with turnovers in 3 games. There should be some positive regression going forward. Note that if not for those turnovers Mississippi State might be 3-0. They outgained Arkansas 400 to 275 and Kentucky 295 to 157. In 3 SEC games they are averaging 443 yards/game and giving up 286 ypg. The big reason that I like them against Texas A&M, is we should see the Bulldogs air attack put up some big numbers against a suspect Aggies secondary. Opposing QBs are completing 71.6% of their attempts against this Texas A&M defense. Alabama had 435 passing yards on them and Florida put up 312. It’s also worth noting the Aggies defense has only forced 4 turnovers in 3 games. I also give the motivation edge to the Bulldogs. This is a prime letdown spot for Texas A&M coming off two massive games against Alabama and Florida, both of which were ranked in the Top 5 when they faced them. As for Mississippi State this is put up or shut up time, especially after getting called out by their new head coach Mike Leach. He basically came out and said that there’s going to be some changes. Guys who aren’t playing with the right attitude and effort aren’t going to see the field and might be kicked off the team. Give me the Bulldogs +7. |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -130 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -130 | 51 h 32 m | Show |
50* VIRGINIA/WAKE FOREST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Virginia -130) I gave out the Cavaliers as a free pick last week at -9.5 at home (line dropped to -7) and felt really good about it. It didn't turn out to be the right side, as NC State wound up winning outright 38-21, but it could have went a lot different. Virginia really put themselves behind the 8-ball early with two interceptions that led to 10 points for the Wolfpack. They also had 1st and goal from the 5 down 14-0 and turned it over on downs. They ended up with a -3 turnover margin, but did have a 405 to 363 edge in total yards and 26 first downs to NC State's 17. I just feel that we are now getting an exceptional price here with the Cavaliers at basically a pick'em on the road against Wake Forest, whose only win on the season is against Campbell. Demon Deacons have been picked apart defensively in their two conference games, giving up 561 to Clemson (could have been more if Tigers don't call off the dogs) and 463 to NC State. I am aware that Virginia starting QB Brennan Armstrong is questionable with a concussion, but there's a chance he plays. If he doesn't, I'm not concerned. Backup Lindell Stone threw for 240 yards and 3 scores in relief of Armstrong and did so on 54 attempts with the defense knowing he was throwing it basically every snap. Also, Virginia is going to be getting a big boost on offense with the recent appeal approval that makes Indiana transfer RB Ronnie Walker Jr. (projected starter) eligible to play this week. He could have a monster first game, as WF is giving up 192 ypg on the ground (that's with them holding Campbell to just 120). Sitting at 1-2 in league play and two ranked opponents on deck (@ No. 13 Miami and home vs No. 5 UNC), I expect Virginia to be 100% locked in for this game. Give me the Cavaliers money line at -130! |
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10-17-20 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 50 h 14 m | Show |
50* OLE MISS/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas St +2.5) I absolutely love this spot with the Razorbacks as a small home dog against Ole Miss. Even though the Rebels come into this game off a loss, the hype around this team is sky-high after what they were able to do against Alabama. The Rebels went score-for-score with the Crimson Tide before eventually falling short 63-48. When you put up nearly 50 points and rack up 647 yards against Alabama, people take notice. I just think it has Ole Miss getting way too much respect on the road against a pissed off Arkansas team that has to feel a bit cheated with how things ended in last week's 28-30 loss at Auburn. Auburn QB Bo Nix fumbled the snap and then tried to spike it. You can't spike after a fumble and thus it was a backward pass. The ball was live and Arkansas recovered, however the refs ruled that because some players stopped pursuing the ball they couldn't award them the recovery. Tigers go down and kick the game-winning field goal with 7 seconds left. What people are going to overlook with Ole Miss and their great showing vs Alabama, is just how hard it's going to be for them to bounce back from that game. That is one Lane Kiffin and the Rebels had circled, as he use to be Saban's OC and there was all kind of talks about how Saban owns his former assistants. The other big thing is defense. Ole Miss doesn't play it. In their 3 games so far they have allowed 51 points to Florida, 41 to Kentucky and 63 to Alabama. They are giving up an average of 641 yards/game and 8.8 yards/play. Simply put, Arkansas is going to score and score a lot. The key here is the Razorbacks defense, which has flashed early under new DC Barry Odom. I think Arkansas will find a way to make enough stops against what I expect to be a sloppy and unmotivated Ole Miss team. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5! |
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10-17-20 | Auburn v. South Carolina +3.5 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 44 m | Show | |
40* AUBURN/S CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (S Carolina +3.5) I like the value here with the Gamecocks catching 3.5 at home against No. 15 Auburn. I just don't feel that Auburn is as good as their ranking might lead people to believe. They beat Kentucky 29-13 in their opener, but that was more evenly matched than the final score would indicate. UK had 1st and Goal from the 1 and didn't score before half (were trailing 8-7 at that time). Wildcats outgained the Tigers 384 to 324. Next time out they were absolutely no match for Georgia, losing 27-6 and getting outgained 442 to 216. They then were very fortunate to escape with a 30-28 win at home against Arkansas, as they were the benefit of a controversial call that had it gone the other way have ended the game with Arkansas winning 28-27. Instead they keep it and kick a FG to win it. Note Auburn only outgained the Razorbacks 446 to 437. South Carolina is just 1-2, but their two losses were a heartbreaker to Tennessee 31-27 and a 14-point loss to a very good Florida team. They got their first win last week in a 41-7 blowout win over Vandy. One of the big reasons I think Auburn is overvalued is Bo Nix has not made that big sophomore season jump that many were expecting. He's only completing 56.8% of his attempts. Last two games the Tigers have failed to reach 200 yards passing. They are going to have pto play right into the strength of South Carolina, which is much better vs the run than they are the pass. On the flip side of this, I've been impressed with Gamecocks QB Collin Hill and he should be in for a big day against a struggling Auburn secondary. Opposing QBs have completed 66% of their attempts with an average of 266 yards/game and 8.3 yards/attempt. Give me South Carolina +3.5! |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky +6 v. Tennessee | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
40* KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Kentucky +6) I see a ton of value here with Kentucky catching almost a TD on the road against the Volunteers. Even though the Wildcats come in off a 24-2 blowout win over Mississippi State, it still feels like the market is low on this team. Kentucky is just 1-2 overall, as they lost their opener 29-13 at Auburn and then lost 41-42 at home to Ole Miss. The game against Auburn was much closer than the 16-point margin. Kentucky beat themselves more than anything in that game. They then blew a 14-point 2nd half lead vs Ole Miss and lost the game because the kicker missed a PAT in OT. Tennessee's season has gone the opposite. They won their first two games, winning 31-27 at South Carolina and 35-12 at home vs Mizzu. Everyone was eager to see what they could do against a power like Georgia last week. It didn't go well. Vols lost 44-21 and it wasn't that close. Tenn was gifted 14-points off turnovers. They only finished the game with 214 total yards. Not only does that game show the Vols have a ways to go, but it's also a tough game for them to bounce back from. On top of the possibility of them hanging their heads from that loss, they also have a huge lookahead matchup with a home game against Alabama next Saturday. Give me Kentucky +6! |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
50* BYU/HOUSTON NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston +5) I love the value here with the Cougars as a home dog against BYU. I not only think Houston will cover the number, but I like them to win this game outright. The Cougars come in ranked No. 14 in the country after their 4-0 start. While BYU does have a bunch of blowout wins on their resume, the schedule hasn't been all that tough with their 4 games against Navy, Troy, La Tech and UTSA. A far cry from what they were suppose to start the 2020 season with before covid hit (@ Utah, Mich St, @ Arizona St, @Minnesota. I like the talent on this BYU team, but this is not one of the 15 best teams in the country. Houston had 5 different games postponed before finally getting to play their first game last week against Tulane. The Cougars showed some sloppiness early in that game, but ended up winning 49-31. A really remarkable win given they were -5 in the turnover department. When you see a score like 49-31, you instantly think their was no defense played. That wasn't the case. Houston's defense limited Tulane to just 211 total yards. Second year head coach Dana Holgorsen said last year he had the best defensive scout team in the history of college football. They definitely looked improved. That makes this a scary team with the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the Cougars +5! |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
50* GA STATE/ARKANSAS ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas State -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
50* C CAROLINA/LAFAYETTE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Coastal Carolina +7.5) This is an easy play on Coastal Carolina catching +7.5. The Chanticleers have been one of the big surprises early on in the Sun Belt. Coastal Carolina improved to 3-0 with a 52-23 win against Arkansas State. Note that's a Red Wolves team that was considered a contender in this conference. It's also an Ark Sate team that had just had just won at Kansas State and only lost by 7 at Memphis. Coastal Carolina is now in year 3 under head coach Jamey Chadwell. This was his best team coming into a year he's had and the Chanticleers got in all 15 spring practices. This team really believes they can make some noise in the SBC. No question they are going to be up for this one. Not to take anything away from the Ragin' Cajuns, who are now ranked No. 25 in the country. I just don't this is a Top 25 team. Sure they had a big upset win over ISU (31-14), but keep in mind they had two return TDs. They have since squeaked out a 34-31 win against Georgia State and 20-18 win over Georgia Southern. One big positive on the field that I see for the Chanticleers is they should be able to play to their strength offensively in the run game. CC comes in averaging 199 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry. Arkansas State's defense is giving up 191 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. Give me the Chanticleers +7.5! |
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10-13-20 | Bills -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
50* BILLS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bills -3.5) Even though I'm confident the Bills will cover, I would strongly recommend buying this down to Buffalo -3 (not an option when submitting picks). There's just too many factors in favor of Buffalo to not play them at this price. The Titans come into this game 3-0, but I've not been that impressed with this team. They could just as easily be 0-3. All 3 wins have come by 3-points or less. Tennessee has had little to no practice time for this game, as their facility has been shutdown. They also got several key guys out because of Covid. They are extremely thin at WR and while A.J. Brown is expected back from injury, he might not be 100%. The biggest thing for me is I don't see the Titans defense being able to contain Josh Allen and this Bills offense. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass (256.3 ypg) and 31st against the run (166.0 ypg). Titans do have two really good edge rushers in Clowney and Landry III, but they figure to be negated in this one, as Buffalo has two quality tackles in Dawkins and Williams. Give me the Bills -3.5! |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 155 h 53 m | Show |
50* CHARGERS/SAINTS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +7.5) I love the Chargers at this price. I don't think it's out of the question that they leave New Orleans with a win. This Saints team has not looked anything like the Super Bowl contender everyone was claiming before the season started. I just think a lot of people are holding on to what Brees and this team has done in the past on MNF. I could maybe see it if Michael Thomas was playing, but he's not and shockingly it's not because he's still injured. Thomas got in a fight with a teammate during a weekend practice and is being suspended by the team. Chargers run a similar defense to the Falcons, which has given the Saints offense trouble. We have seen this defense disrupt things for Patrick Mahomes and had Brady in the Bucs down big early. I could definitely see them making life tough on this dink and dunk offense that NO runs. All of this and I haven't mentioned the talented rookie QB the Chargers have in Herbert. I really think LA struck gold with this kid. Anthony Lynn is now the only thing holding this team back. I think Herbert will have success in this game. New Orleans is giving up 30.8 ppg. Give me the Chargers +7.5! |
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10-11-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Browns | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 44 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/BROWNS NFL *SHARP STAKE* on Colts -2.5 I really like the value here with Indianapolis at -1.5 on the road against the Browns. This feels like the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. Chances are the Browns cost a lot of you some money last week, as just about every square was on the Cowboys -3 at home. Not only did the Browns cover, they destroyed Dallas 49-38 in a game that wasn’t anywhere close to what the final score would indicate. That’s now 3 straight wins and back-to-back covers for Cleveland. Keep in mind this is a team a lot of people were on coming into the year, so this success is going to draw a lot of public money back on this team, especially as a home dog. As of right now, close to 60% of the tickets on this game are on the Browns. I could be dead wrong, but I don’t Cleveland is a serious contender. I see them as a very mediocre 8-8 type of team. They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule, as their two other wins were at home against a couple of rebuilding teams in the Bengals and Redskins. I know every one thinks Dallas is this great team, but that defense the Cowboys are sending out on the field is one of the worst units I have ever seen. You also have to look at how the Browns are generating their offense. Baker Mayfield is in every other commercial right now and gets a lot of the attention, but he’s far from the reason this team is 3-1. In fact, Cleveland is 30th out of 32 teams in passing at 182.5 ypg. It’s been the Browns ability to run the ball, as they lead the league with an average of 204.5 ypg. Moving the chains on the ground against this Colts defense is going to a much more difficult task than some of the teams they have racked up big yards against the last few weeks. Indianapolis has the No. 4 ranked run defense, giving up just 77.0 yards/game. Not only that, Cleveland will be playing without leading rusher Nick Chubb. I get they got a good back up Kareem Hunt, but the loss of Chub is a big deal. Part of the reason both those guys have been so good is they are fresh the entire game with how they split reps. Without that running game picking up big yards on 1st and 2nd down, we are going to see Mayfield forced to make a lot more big plays on 3rd and long. Oh and in case you wondering, the Colts are No. 1 in the league vs the pass, giving up just 159.3 ypg. I know Philip Rivers has really started to look old for the first time in his career, but this Cleveland defense is one he can exploit. Browns are 30th vs the pass giving up 310.5 ypg and are 27th in scoring, allowing 31.5 ppg. I really give the edge here to the Colts on both sides of the ball and that makes them an easy play with a spread that’s basically a pick’em. Give me Indy -1.5! |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins +8.5 v. 49ers | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 17 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/49ERS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Dolphins +8.5) One of my biggest plays in Week 4 was the Eagles +7.5 on SNF against the 49ers. While I knew there was a good chance Philadelphia was going to play inspired after their 0-2-1 start and it being a prime time game, it was more of a fade of San Francisco. I can’t think of a team that’s been ravaged by injuries as much as the 49ers have been on both sides of the football. It just feels to me that this team is getting way too much respect for what they did a season ago in making it all the way to the Super Bowl. You have to wonder if this team played any other two teams besides the Jets and Giants in Weeks 2 and 3 if they wouldn’t be 0-4 instead of 2-2. The two New York teams are so much worse than the rest of the league it’s hard to believe. Not to mention that loss to the Cardinals is looking worse and worse with how poorly Arizona has played against some other mediocre teams. The loss to the Eagles is equally concerning. There’s absolutely no reason this team should be laying more than a TD against any team not named the Jets or Giants. Miami isn’t just capable of covering, they could definitely win this game outright. Give me the Dolphins +8.5! |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals v. Jets OVER 47 | 30-10 | Loss | -115 | 146 h 15 m | Show | |
40* CARDS/JETS NFL *STEAMROLLER* Over 47 I see a ton of value with a total less than 50 in Sunday's matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. One of the big reasons the total is so low, is the Jets offense has really struggled to score and are now without starting Darnold. There's a lot worse options than veteran Joe Flacco and I just don't know that there's a massive drop off in the offensive potential with him under center. I also think this Arizona defense is a lot worse than people realize. Cardinals are only giving up 23.0 ppg, but are allowing 5.9 yards/play, giving up 4.5 yards/carry and 7.1 yards/pass attempt. Most would say the Jets defense is awful and it has been. What might surprise you is how similar the Cardinals defense has been outside of the points allowed. Jets give up 32.8 ppg but only 5.8 yards/play, 4.2 yards/carry and 7.4 yards/pass attempts. If the Jets can just get into the 20's here this thing should fly over. Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense should score early and often. Give me the OVER 47! |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53 | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 19 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/FALCONS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 53) These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this total. Both of these teams can get after you offensively and neither has a defense that is all that imposing. The loss of Christian McCaffrey has not slowed down this Panthers team. Carolina just racked up 444 yards in a 31-21 win over the Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater thew for 276 yards and 2 scores, while the Panthers rushed for 168 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 yards/carry). I really think we are seeing the impact Joe Brady (new offensive coordinator) is having with this team. Bridgewater is also one of the more underrated quarterbacks out there. No reason to think that Carolina's offense won't be able to move the ball against this Atlanta defense. Falcons are 31st (ahead of only Seattle), giving up 448.3 ypg. Most of those coming via big pass plays, as they are 31st against the pass, allowing 341.5 ypg. Sure Atlanta's defense has had a difficult task facing Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in 3 of their first 4, but they also gave up 30 points to the Bears, allowing Foles to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns. As far as the Falcons offense, we know they are going to put up points with Matt Ryan and that passing attack. Give me the OVER 53! |
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10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans -6 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show | |
40* JAGUARS/TEXANS NFL NO-BRAINER (Texans -6) A lot of people look at a team like Houston, who just fired their head coach, as a team that's in shambles. It's never good to be in a position that you need to make that kind of change, especially in Week 5. However, I've found a lot of success playing on teams in the first game after they fired their head coach. Now you can't just back this blindly. The Jets could fire Gase and I wouldn't even consider taking them in their next game. I think we are going to see the best game of the season out of this Houston team. The players clearly weren't a fan of O'Brien. Now they got to back it up. They are going to be so motivated to show that O'Brien is what was holding them back. What better team to get all that frustration out on than the Jaguars. The only reason the Jags are remotely competitive is they got a pretty decent QB in Minshew. The rest of the team is pretty trash if you ask me. All 4 teams they have faced have scored at least 28 points. While we haven't quite seen it so far this season, Watson and that Texans offense should be one of the better units in the league. Part of their struggles is their schedule. Not only have they faced 3 of the best teams, but 3 of the better defenses in the league in the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers. Give me the Texans -6! |
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10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5 | Top | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 119 h 15 m | Show |
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5) I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter. The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting. Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats. Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57! |
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10-10-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +24 | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 122 h 12 m | Show | |
40* ALABAMA/OLE MISS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Ole Miss +24) All we keep hearing about with this game is how Nick Saban and Alabama have dominated when the Crimson Tide are facing a team that is coached by one of Saban's former assistants. This time it's Lane Kiffin with Ole Miss. Now I'm not giving the Rebels much of a shot of winning this game, but with the way they can put up points, I really like them to keep this within the number. Note we did see Alabama asked to cover a similar big number on the road against Missouri in their opener. They won the game 38-19 but didn't cover as a 28.5-point favorite. Another thing to keep in mind is this is a bit of a letdown spot for Alabama off that big game last week against Texas A&M. More than anything, I love that Ole Miss has the ability to play from behind and cover with the back door if things get out of hand early. Rebels feature one of the nations top passing attacks early on and we have seen the Crimson Tide pull off the dogs in the 2nd half (what they did against Missouri). Give me the Rebels +24! |
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10-10-20 | Temple -3 v. Navy | 29-31 | Loss | -106 | 121 h 37 m | Show | |
40* TEMPLE/NAVY NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Temple -3) The Owls are an easy play if you ask me. Temple is simply being undervalued because they have yet to play. We saw this on Thursday with Houston. The Cougars won and covered as 6.5-point favorites in a 49-31 win over Tulane and did so despite a -5 turnover margin, which tells you just how lopsided that was. With Houston's cover, teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent that has already played at least one game are 17-4-1 ATS this season. The other big thing here is how bad Navy has been. Outside of a good 2nd half against Tulane, where they rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win 27-24, this team has not been competitive. They lost their opener 55-3 at home to BYU getting outgained by the Cougars 580 to 149. They also lost 40-7 to Air Force getting outgained by the Falcons 410 to 241. This is not your typical Navy team that is one of the best in the country at running the football. Midshipmen are only averaging 138 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. With how bad their defense is, Navy has no shot of being competitive if they can't run the ball. Give me the Owls -3! |
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10-10-20 | Texas Tech +12.5 v. Iowa State | 15-31 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 20 m | Show | |
40* TEXAS TECH/IOWA ST NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas Tech +12.5) Much like I played against Mississippi State last week coming off their big win over LSU, I want to fade the Cyclones off their big win over Oklahoma. It also has a lot to do with the number and the ability this Texas Tech offense has to put up points. It’s one thing for Iowa State to win the game, it’s another for them to win so by 13 or more points. I definitely think this Texas Tech offense will be able to move the ball with their passing attack. Last week Oklahoma redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler went 25 of 36 for 300 yards and 2 scores. The week before TCU had 399 passing yards and would have had more if star quarterback Max Duggan played the entire game. He only played the 2nd half and had 241 yards and 3 scores. Texas Tech is currently 8th in the country in passing at 342.7 ypg. Starting QB Alan Bowman is questionable after being forced out of last week’s game against Kansas State with an ankle injury. With or without him I’m not to worried. Backup Henry Colombi replaced Bowman and went 30 of 42 for 244 yards and 2 scores. It’s also worth nothing that Texas Tech was in a really tough spot last week against K-State. They were doomed for a letdown after blowing that 15-point lead in the final 3 minutes of an overtime loss to rival Texas. They should be much more focused and motivated in this one. Give me the Red Raiders +12.5! |
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10-10-20 | Duke -2.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 115 h 6 m | Show |
50* DUKE/SYRACUSE ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Duke -2.5) I'm going to gladly lay the 2.5 points with the Blue Devils on the road against the Orange. I just think we are getting an exceptional price with Duke because they come into this game at 0-4. Thing is, best case this team was going to be 1-3 with their schedule, as they have had to play Notre Dame Virginia and Virginia Tech. As for Syracuse, I think we are seeing them overvalued off back-to-back covers. They first lost by just 11 as a 21.5-point dog at Pitt and then won outright 37-20 as a 7.5-point home dog to Georgia Tech. I just don't think this team is very good. They were outgained by Pitt 342 to 171 and by the Yellow Jackets 453 to 357. If not for the fact that Orange defense has created 10 turnovers (+6 turnover margin), this line would be a lot more. Duke also has a -7 turnover margin, so there's some positive regression coming for them. Even if the Blue Devils can keep it at -1 or even in the turnover departement, I think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Duke -2.5! |
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10-10-20 | Florida v. Texas A&M +7 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 115 h 41 m | Show | |
40* FLORIDA/TEXAS A&M NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Texas A&M +7) I was shocked to see the Aggies getting this many points at home. I just feel like we are seeing a big overreaction to how Texas A&M fared in last week’s game against Alabama. A lot of people thought the Aggies could make a game of it against the Crimson Tide and cover the +18 spread. They didn’t do either, as Alabama rolled to a 52-24 win. I think that has a lot of people firmly off the Texas A&M bandwagon, especially this week against a Florida team that is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Most notably Gators quarterback Kyle Trask, who is completing 72% of his attempts with a 10 to 1 TD-INT ratio. Given how Alabama’s Matt Jones just carved up the Aggies for 435 yards and 4 scores, most will just assume Trask does the same. I’m not going to say Trask will have a bad game, but I don’t think this Florida offense is as potent as what the Crimson Tide have to offer. Also should see a better performance from the Aggies D on their home field. Another thing here is that because so much focus has gone on Trask and the Florida offense, people are overlooking how bad their defense has been. Gators gave up 35 points in their opener at Ole Miss and then allowed 24 to South Carolina last week. Keep in mind this Florida team finished 2019 giving up just 15.5 ppg and 305 yards/game. It’s really hard to win on the road, especially in the SEC, when you can’t stop the other team from scoring. I know the Aggies are far from a bottom feeder in the SEC, but there’s a chance Florida doesn’t give this team the respect they deserve after their poor showing against Alabama. This becomes even more of a concern when you factor in their home game against LSU next week. Everyone has LSU circled on their schedules, especially Florida, who lost a back and forth thriller to the Tigers last year. Give me Texas A&M +7! |
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10-10-20 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. North Carolina | 45-56 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 21 m | Show | |
40* VA TECH/N CAROLINA NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +5.5) I have this game much closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is 2-0, despite the fact that they have been hit hard with injuries. Starting quarterback Hendon Hooker is one of several players who have missed the first game. However, Hooker is listed as probable on the injury report and I would expect several other Hokies to be back in action. With Hooker back in action, this Virginia Tech offense is going to be tough to stop. Hokies rushed for 314 in their opener against NC State and then had 324 in their win at Duke. Teams knew they were only looking to run and couldn't stop it. Now they are really going to pay if they sell out to try to stop it. As for North Carolina, this is a team that I haven't been all that impressed with. Tar Heels slept walk through the 1st half of their 31-6 win at Syracuse and then only beat BC on the road 26-22. I'm not even so sure with the lack of homefield advantage this year that UNC should even be favored. I certainly don't think they are the No. 8 best team in the country. This is also a spot Virginia Tech has thrived in. Hokies are 15-5 ATS last 20 road games when off a conference win by 7 or less (beat Duke 38-31) and are also 15-5 ATS last 20 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me Virginia Tech +5.5! |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 44 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 14 m | Show | |
40* BUCCANEERS/BEARS NFL *VEGAS INSIDER (Over 44) I really like the OVER 44 between the Bears/Bucs on Thursday Night Football. It's almost to the point you just got to take the OVER with a total this low. Going into Monday Night Football in Week 4, out of 14 games, 11 had 45 or more points with 8 of those going for 50+. That includes a shootout last Thursday between two awful offensive teams, as the Broncos and Jets combined for 65. That game really speaks to just how hard it is on these defenses to play well in these Thursday games on short rest. You also have scoring up from a lack of fans and the refs not calling offensive holding near as much. The big reason this total is so low, is because of how bad the Bears looked in Nick Foles first start. Chicago got next to nothing going in a home loss to the Colts, scoring just 11 points on 269 total yards (only had 3 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th). Thing is that Indy defense is extremely difficult to pass on. In fact, the Colts lead the NFL in pass defense, giving up just 159.3 ypg. The Bucs defense is more geared toward stopping the run. I think Foles and that offense can provide enough spark in this one to push us past. As for Tampa Bay's offense, they are getting better and better as the season goes on. Tom Brady has not regressed like so many thought he would leaving NE. He threw 5 TDs in last week's come from behind win over the Chargers. He's going to want to play well in this one (prime time and rematch with Foles) and I expect him to do just that. Give me the OVER 44! |
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10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston -6.5 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 75 h 6 m | Show | |
40* TULANE/HOUSTON NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Houston -6.5) It's been a crazy start to the season for Houston. The Cougars have not played a game yet in 2020, as they have seen opponent after opponent not be able to play because of Covid. They have had 5 different games on the schedule fall through. As much as this team wants to get on the field, the extra practice certainly can't hurt. There's no debating on what kind of effort we are going to get from Houston. The Cougars are going to be jacked up for this one. I think Dana Holgorsen's team is going to come out and make a statement. Houston went just 4-8 last year, which I think is playing into the number here a little and giving us a decent price at less than touchdown. Thing you have to keep in mind is starting QB D'Eriq King shocked the team by redshirting after 4 games. Not only did they lose King, they had a bunch of injuries. Not only that, they had a number of transfers sitting out last year. Holgorsen, who is now in year two, called his scout team defense the best in CFB history. Clearly that's an exaggeration, but still a big plus. Tulane beat them last year, so there's also that for motivation. Green Wave come in 2-1, but two of those wins are against Southern Miss and South Alabama. They also blew a 20+ point lead in a loss to Navy (Midshipmen have been outscored 95-10 in their other two games). Tulane is down one of their top rushers in Tyjae Spears and are going with true freshman Michael Pratt as their starting QB. Give me Houston -6.5! |
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10-05-20 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49) I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think. In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer. All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second. As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games. Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49! |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 54 m | Show |
50* EAGLES/49ERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles +7.5) It's only been 3 weeks into the season and everyone can't stop talking about how bad the Eagles are playing, especially starting QB Carson Wentz. It hasn't been good, but I'm willing to give this team a shot here at this price. Not only do I think this is a good time to buy low on Philadelphia, but I also feel like this is the perfect spot to sell high on the 49ers. San Francisco has been absolutely decimated by injuries. There's too many to list, but it's a lot and it's a lot of their best players. The thing is, the 49ers come into this game off two dominant wins despite all those injuries. They crushed the Jets 31-13 on the road and then beat the Giants 36-9. I get those are some lopsided scores, but the Jets and the Giants are awful. I personally think they are in a class by their own at the bottom. Simply put, I don't think there's a team in the league that wouldn't be overvalued after playing those two teams in consecutive weeks. Add in the 49ers being a very public team off their Super Bowl run, I believe this has been inflated even more. It would not surprise me at all if the Eagles won this game. Give me Philadelphia +7.5! |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears +3 | 19-11 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +3) I'm honestly a bit shocked that the Bears are +3 at home. Chicago is 3-0 and off a big come from behind win over the Falcons. Colts are just 2-1 and have one of the worst losses on the season, falling to Jacksonville in Week 1. A lot of people see the Bears as a fluke and some of that 3-0 is definitely good fortune. The thing is that was a different team. One in which that was quarterback by Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles replaced Trubisky and led the comeback last week. An offense that has struggled to score all season went up and down the field. Trubisky is by far one of the least talented NFL quarterbacks to start as many games as he did. As for the Colts, I don't know that they are all they are made out to be. They rebounded from that loss to the Jags with convincing wins over the Vikings and Jets. Minnesota doesn't looking anything close to a contender and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. The offense has left a lot to be desired and they are down quite a few key guys on that side of the ball. Chicago's defense hasn't been dominant, but we know the talent is there for them. I really think Foles being the starter adds new life to this defense. They no longer have to play perfect for them to win. Give me the Bears +3! |
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10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans -3.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -107 | 141 h 36 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Texans -3.5) I locked in the Texans early in this week. I think this is the time to jump on Houston. The Texans really had no shot at being anything other than 0-3. They had to play at the Chiefs in Week 1, hosted the Ravens in Week 2 and played at Pittsburgh in Week 3. Without question they played the two best teams in the AFC, maybe the NFL and the Steelers aren't far behind. The Vikings are also 0-3, but it's been a much different 0-3 than the Texans. Minnesota has not played nearly as tough of schedule. They are also getting absolutely walked all over on the defensive side of the ball. They just lost too much. There's not really anything they can do to fix it short-term. I'm expecting a big game out of Deshaun Watson and I'll take my chances that the Texans defense can get enough stops to put this game away and cover the spread. Kirk Cousins has been really inconsistent early. I think he clearly misses Diggs and there's so much pressure on them to score with how bad their defense is playing. Give me the Texans -3.5! |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 48.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show | |
40* JAGUARS/BENGALS NFL NO-BRAINER (OVER 48.5) I’m expecting a lot of offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball, as we have two talented young signal callers facing off in Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew. Let’s start off talking about Burrow and the Bengals offense. Cincinnati is not holding back with their rookie quarterback. Burrow’s 141 pass attempts are 2nd only to the Cowboys Dak Prescott. He’s the 12 ranked starting QB according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). What’s impressive with Burrow is he’s producing despite being under constant pressure. One thing to note on that is that the 3 teams he’s faced, Chargers, Browns and Eagles all have a ton of talent up front on the defensive line. The Jaguars got a decent defensive end in Josh Allen, but the rest of that unit up front is trash. Jacksonville as a team has just 2 sacks in their first 3 games. They only could manage 1 against a Dolphins offensive line that is every bit as bad as what Cincinnati has. Not only will this help Burrow and give him more time for big plays down the field, it will also give the Bengals a more balanced attack with the run game, which should help sustain drives. As for Minshew and the Jaguars offense, they put up 27 in Week 1 against a great Colts defense and then 30 on the road against the Titans. They did struggle in their last game, scoring just 13 points on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins. Big thing to note with that game is that Minshew was without his top target in D.J. Chark. While he’s only practicing in a limited role, everything I’ve read is that he’s going to be good to go on Sunday. The Bengals rank 14th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg, but are way back at 24th in total defense, giving up 392.3 ypg. Thing is they held the Chargers to just 13 points, but that was when LA was still handicapping themselves with Tyrod Taylor at QB. They also just held the Eagles to 23, but Carson Wentz has been awful. Wentz is the 33rd ranked QB out of 35 in PFF. The only decent offense they faced was the Browns and Cleveland is far from an offensive juggernaut. Browns had 35 points and 434 yards against that defense. Even if the Bengals get back All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins, the rest of that Front 7 is garbage. I think these two will have no problem eclipsing the 50 point mark. Not only will I be betting the OVER 48.5, but I’ve also got action on the OVER 23.5 for the 1st half. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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10-04-20 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -100 | 141 h 38 m | Show |
50* CARDINALS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -3.5) After last week's upset loss at home to the Lions, I feel like this is the perfect time to jump on the Cardinals as a slim road favorite against the Panthers. Arizona definitely did themselves no favors with 3 turnovers (-3 turnover margin). I think some of that was just a lack of focus from them being 2-0 and feeling like they were just going to walk all over an 0-2 Lions team. Arizona's offense still put up a solid 377 yards and had 28 first downs. Kyler Murray wasn't nearly as effective on the ground and all 3 turnovers were interceptions he threw. I really like this kid and I think he bounces back in a big way. It certainly helps matters that he's facing an awful Panthers defense. Carolina is bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. We have seen them give up 34 to the Raiders and 31 to the Bucs. They did hold the Chargers to just 16 last week, but that's very misleading. LA had 436 yards of total offense, with rookie Justin Herbert throwing for more than 300 yards. Add in the fact that the Panthers don't have McCaffrey and they are really left no choice but to pass. Less running means less time of possession and more possessions for the Arizona offense. I really don't think this will be close. Give me the Cardinals -3.5! |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +7.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 100 h 25 m | Show | |
40* OKLAHOMA/IOWA ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Iowa State +7.5) I see some great value here with the Cyclones as a 7.5-point dog at home to Oklahoma. I think we got a little too accustomed to seeing this Sooners offense plug in a new QB under head coach Lincoln Riley and dominate. They did it two years ago when Kyler Murray replaced Baker Mayfield and last year with Jalen Hurts. Thing is, both Murray and Hurts were veteran transfers. This year they are turning to a red-shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler. Kid is definitely talented and is more than likely going to be a star by the time he leaves Norman, but he's really raw. We saw his lack of experience show in their huge upset loss to K-State last week. He threw 3 interceptions and just looked rattled once things started to turn in the Wildcats favor. My big concern with Rattler in 2020, is the Sooners don't have the rushing attack that they have had in previous years. They only managed 130 rushing yards on 35 attempts against K-State. This is a team that's put up 240+ each of the last two years on the ground and 200+ in all 3 years under Riley. ISU has an outstanding run defense. I think the Cyclones defense will be able to put a lot of pressure on Rattler and I see him struggling in his first road start. Iowa State is not an easy place to play. I really think the Cyclones can win here. ISU has won and covered all 4 times they have faced OU under Matt Campbell and teams like Oklahoma that are coming off a home loss as a 23+ favorite, where they allowed 30 or more points are a dismal 1-15-1 ATS in their next game if favored against an unranked opponent. These teams are just 9-8 SU and failing to cover by more than 10 ppg. Give me Iowa State +7.5! |
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10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 29 m | Show |
50* AUBURN/GEORGIA SEC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Georgia -6.5) I love the Bulldogs laying less than a touchdown at home against the Tigers. If you were watching college football last week, many of you probably at least saw that Georgia struggled early against Arkansas. They didn't take their first lead in the game until a 3rd quarter score put them up 13-10. They would go on to win that game 37-10, just missing out on covering as a 28-point favorite. Still I think that slow start has some second-guessing this team. The big key here is there's reason to believe Georgia's offense will start much stronger in this game. Bulldogs offense took off when Stetson Bennett replaced starter Dwan Mathis. They could see a massive upgrade at the position if USC transfer J.T. Daniels shows enough in practice to win the job. However, I got confidence in Bennett if Daniels can't go. Another huge factor for me and laying the 6.5 is I just don't see Auburn's offense being able to do much against this Georgia defense. Many thought this Bulldogs defense was the most talented unit in the country coming into the year and they were dominant against Arkansas. Give me Georgia -6.5! |
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10-03-20 | Arkansas +18 v. Mississippi State | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
40* ARKANSAS/MISS ST NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Arkansas +18) I think this is an ideal spot to fade Mississippi State. The Bulldogs come in off a massive upset of No. 6 LSU. Mississippi State won the game 44-34. They went off as a 14.5 point dog, but were much higher. In fact I cashed a 50* Top Play on the Bulldogs +17. I would be lying if I said I thought they were going to put up 40+ and KJ Costello was going to throw for 600+ yards. However, I bet on Mississippi State in that game because of what I thought of LSU. The Tigers couldn’t have been more overrated coming into this season. The dropped all the way back to No. 20 in the polls and with the talent in the SEC, I think they will struggle to have a winning record. Regardless of how overrated LSU was, that doesn’t change how motivated Mississippi State was for that game. Any time you get a shot at the defending champion, you show up with your best and that’s what they did. Asking them to bring that same intensity into this game is asking a lot. After losing their opener to Georgia at home, Arkansas has now lost 20 straight conference games. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a 3-game gauntlet coming up as they go @ Kentucky, host Texas A&M and then go @ Alabama. I’m not just taking Arkansas because of the spot. I liked the hire of head coach Sam Pittman and even more so offensive coordinator Kendall Briles. They also brought in former Florida QB Felipe Franks to guide the offense. I know they only scored 10 against Georgia, but that’s a defense that many thought might be the best overall unit in the country this year. I’m confident the Razorbacks will be able to move the ball against this Mississippi State defense, that clearly still has some learning to do in their new 3-3-5 scheme. I’ll take my chances with Arkansas keeping it within 17 or less. Give me the Razorbacks +18 |
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10-03-20 | South Carolina v. Florida OVER 56.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 94 h 35 m | Show | |
40* S CAROLINA/FLORIDA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 56.5) I don't think the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's SEC East showdown between Florida and South Carolina. The Gators flashed some serious potential last year when Kyle Trask took over as their starting QB midway through the season. That experience in 2019 looks to be paying off, as Florida's offense couldn't have looked much better in their first game. Gators racked up 642 yards on their way to hanging 51 on the road against Ole Miss. Trask was a big part of that, as he went 30 of 42 for 416 yards and 6 scores. The Gamecocks just gave up 31 to Tennessee at home in their opener and I just don't see them being able to contain this Gators attack on the road. Key here is that while Florida figures to go up and down the field on offense, the Gamecocks should be able to have their own success moving the ball. While the offense was great against the Rebels, Florida's defense was torched for 613 yards and 29 first downs. They gave up 170 on the ground and 443 thru the air. Last year these combined for 65 in a 38-27 Florida win and I think we could see a similar, if not higher scoring, game this time around. Give me the OVER 56.5! |
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10-03-20 | TCU +13 v. Texas | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 44 m | Show | |
40* TCU/TEXAS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (TCU +13) Hats off to Texas for their crazy come-from-behind win against Texas Tech last week. Longhorns trailed by 15 with 3:13 to play. They managed to score twice to force OT and then won it in extra time. That's great, but it doesn't change the fact that they trailed Texas Tech by 15 with 3 minutes to play. Or that their defense gave up 56 points and 447 yards. The same Texas Tech team that only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 in their opener. I just don't think Texas should be laying almost two TDs against this TCU team. Horned Frogs lost their opener to ISU, but backup Matthew Downing started the game, before starter Max Duggan took over in the 2nd half. For those that don't know, Duggan had a heart problem and was clearly shortly before the game, so that's why he didn't start. TCU's offense scored just 7 points in the 1st half under Downing. They had 27 in the 2nd half under Duggan. He's a difference maker and played a big role in TCU's 37-27 win over Texas last year, throwing for 273 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 72 yards and a score. Give me TCU +13! |
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10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +3 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 93 h 39 m | Show | |
40* BAYLOR/W VIRGINIA NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (W Virginia +3) I'm going to back the Mountaineers as a slim home dog against Baylor on Saturday. I played West Virginia last week at +6.5 against Oklahoma State. They didn't get there in a 27-13 loss, but were a bit unfortunate to not do so. They killed themselves falling behind 17-0 early, thanks in large part to a fumble that the Cowboys returned 56 yards for a score. West Virginia was able to climb back within 7 points in the 4th quarter. They ended up outgaining Oklahoma State 353-342. I like what I've seen out of junior quarterback Jarret Doege and I think we are going to see the Mountaineers offense show up in a big way against the Bears. Don't overreact to Baylor's 47-14 blowout win over Kansas in their first game. That Jayhawks team is trash and that's a very misleading score. Baylor only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. They got 16 points from their defense/special teams (safety and two kickoff return TDs). They also added a garbage TD up 40-14 late in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind Baylor is expected to be down some this year. They are in the first year of new head coach Dave Aranda, who is a defensive guy in a game that has gotten really offensive over the last decade. Baylor's defense only returned 2 starters and lost their 3 studs up front. I also think it's concerning that Brewer only went 15 of 23 for 142 yards against that KU defense. Give me West Virginia +3! |
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10-03-20 | NC State v. Pittsburgh -14 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -106 | 93 h 43 m | Show |
50* NC STATE/PITT NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pittsburgh -14) I played against Pitt last week against Louisville and was a bit fortunate to get a push with the Cardinals at +3. I didn't think that Panthers defense was going to look as good as it did. They made a really good QB in Louisville's Malik Cunningham look bad. Cunningham was just 9 of 21 for 107 yards with a 1 TD and 3 INTs. Cunningham had thrown for 300+ in each of his first two games, including 307 and 3 scores against Miami the week before. Pitt should have no problem getting enough stops against this NC State team to pull away an easily cover the two touchdown spread. The Wolfpack had more than their fair share of troubles moving the ball against the Hokies last week. They only had 10 points midway thru the 3rd quarter and trailed 37-10 at that point. They added two TDs the rest of the way, but you got to think some of that was the Hokies calling off the dogs. Key here is that while the Panthers offense is a bit limited, they should have zero problem putting up points against this NC State defense. They just gave up 45 to Virginia Tech and the Hokies played without their starting QB Malik Hooker. They could not stop the run, giving up 314 yards on 41 attempts. This is after they allowed 42 the week before against a bad Wake Forest offense. Give me Pittsburgh -14! |
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10-01-20 | Broncos -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 105 | 76 h 23 m | Show |
50* BRONCOS/JETS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Broncos -3) I spent a lot of time handicapping this game and as much as I wanted to take the Jets as a home dog, I just can't do it. New York is awful. I really think they are going to lose big again and there's a good chance they fire Gase after this game. With scoring way up this year, the Jets are as bad a offensive team as I can remember. They have scored 37 points in 3 games (12.3 ppg). Last week their offense scored 7 points and gave up 16 (two pick sixes and a safety). New York has not held a lead at any point this season. Darnold has not played well, but it's not all his fault. The talent that has been put around him is a joke. Thing could get worse. Jets stud rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton is likely not going to play with a shoulder injury. Note their swing tackle Chuma Edoga is already filling in at right tackle for the injure George Fant. I'm not going to sit here an endorse the Broncos, because there's a lot of problems with this team. More than anything injuries have ravaged this team. I know they weren't all that competitive last week against Tampa Bay, but they had a shot at winning Week 1 against the Titans (lost 14-16) and Week 2 at Pittsburgh (lost 21-26). I just think they are the better coached and more talented team. Give me the Broncos -3! *This line has moved quite a bit since Denver announced that Rypien is going to start. When I handicapped this game I assumed there was a chance he would play. I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the line move. It doesn't change how I feel about this play. |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -124 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/RAVENS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
50* PACKERS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Saints -3) This is a no-brainer if you ask me. All we are hearing right now is how washed up Drew Brees is (only time a guy throws for 300+ in a game and is getting dogged). I can't imagine how jacked up the Saints are to get on the field for this game. I got good feeling here that Brees is going to quiet some of those critics in this one. What people overlook with the Saints 24-34 loss to the Raiders is they beat themselves. New Orleans put up 424 yards and averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play. It looked like it was JV vs varsity early on. Penalties killed a lot of Saints drives. Let's also not overlook the fact that New Orleans is just not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. With Payton as head coach, Saints are 28-13 ATS last 41 off a road loss. As for the Packers, people are firmly on the Green Bay bandwagon after they have opened up 2-0 with a 43-34 win over the Vikings and 42-21 victory against Detroit. I just don't think either of those teams are any good, especially on the defensive side. Big loss here for Rodgers and the Packers offense with wideout Davante Adams doubtful to play. Green Bay has also been running the ball with a ton of success (had 259 on the ground vs Lions). New Orleans is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry. I just think GB has trouble keeping pace with the Saints. Give me New Orleans -3! |
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09-27-20 | Panthers v. Chargers OVER 43.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 3 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 43.5) I see some decent value here with the low total set for this game. I think the assumption here is that the Panthers won't be able to move the ball without Christian McCaffrey. I don't think that's going to be the case. Despite only scoring 17 points in their WK 2 loss to the Bucs, they an impressive 427 total yards (outgained TB by almost 100 yards). McCaffrey only had 59 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards against the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 367 yards. DJ Moore had 8 catches for 120, Robby Anderson had 9 for 109 and Mike Davis caught 8 for 74. As for the Chargers, I didn't make this a play until it was clear that rookie Justin Herbert was going to start over Tyrod Taylor. Herbert made big throw after big throw against the defending champs and did so not even knowing he was going to start until right before the game. Carolina's defense is one of the worst in the league. I think Herbert and the Chargers are going to score at will, which will keep Bridgewater and the Panthers in a pass-heavy attack. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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09-27-20 | Titans -2.5 v. Vikings | 31-30 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 13 m | Show | |
40* TITANS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Titans -2.5) Every year there’s a team the books just can’t price right early on. I believe Minnesota is that team in 2020. I’m certainly not going to stop fading the Vikings now. Especially when all we really need is for Tennessee to win the game. I had a 50* Top Play on Green Bay +2.5 in Week 1 at Minnesota and last week I gave out the Colts -3 at home against the Vikings. Neither game was close. That’s the key. It’s not shocking that Minnesota is 0-2 having started out against Aaron Rodgers and on the road against a good Colts team. It’s how they competed in those games. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in 2014, defense has been the foundation of this team and no surprise given Zimmer’s defensive background. Don’t get me wrong he’s a great defensive coach. He just doesn’t have the players on the roster for his coaching to matter. They were decimated on the defensive line and at corner. Now they are down one of their best linebackers in Anthony Barr. They just gave up 100-yard game to rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and now have to try to stop the beast that is Derek Henry. Everyone also just thinks Henry when they think of the Titans. Ryan Tannehill can sling it. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns without a pick in his first two starts and if you back to last season, he’s thrown 2 or more TDs in 13 of his last 15 starts and that includes his 3 playoff starts. As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins was awful against the Colts. He completed just 11 of 26 for 113 yards and threw 3 interceptions. I think he really misses Stefon Diggs. I think some of these coaches/GMs are learning the hard way how much a negative impact losing a star WR like Diggs or DeAndre Hopkins can have, especially when you don’t replace him with an equal talent. I think it hurts even more for an average QB like Cousins. Lastly I think not having fans is a massive blow to the Vikings. Minnesota doesn’t always get mentioned as a tough place to play, but the advanced numbers suggest they had one of the biggest homefield advantages of any team. This year more than any that defense needs the energy of the crowd and it’s just not there. Give me the Titans -2.5. |
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09-27-20 | Texans v. Steelers -4 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 44 h 0 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -4) I'm going to roll the dice here with Pittsburgh laying just 4-points at home against the Texans. The Steelers let me down last week, as they won by just 5 at home over the Broncos (led by double-digits in the 4th). It was a real sloppy showing for Pittsburgh, who may have let their guard down after Broncos starting QB Drew Lock left the game early with an injury. I expect a much more focused and energized Steelers team off that poor showing against a top tier QB like Deshaun Watson. That's all we really need for Pittsburgh to win and cover here. As good as Watson is, he's really all the Texans got and some of his talent is negated by the poor coaching of Bill O'Brien. Watson also has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long and that's a recipe for disaster against this top tier Steelers pass rush. Look for the Texans to be playing behind the chains all day in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -4! |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 44 h 6 m | Show |
50* RAIDERS/PATRIOTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -5) I love the value here with New England at -5. I've been pretty spot on with the Patriots early on. I cashed on them -6.5 in Week 1 against the Dolphins then won easily on the the Pats/Seahawks O44.5 in Week 2. I really think this team is better than they are getting credit for. This is one of the best teams in the AFC. The Raiders are getting a ton of love for their 34-24 win over the Saints on MNF in Week 2 (I was on Oakland +6), but I just don't think they are as good as what people think. The defense gave up 7.4 yards/play against New Orleans. Penalties really killed the Saints (10 for 129). NE is a disciplined team under Belichick, so that edge won't be there in this one. This is also an awful spot for Oakland. Raiders are on short rest after playing on MNF. They also are having to travel across the country for an early game, which is never easy for the west coast teams. Give me the Patriots -5! |
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09-26-20 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
50* VA TECH/NC STATE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Virginia Tech -6.5) I love the value here with the Hokies laying less than a touchdown at home against the Wolfpack. I don't know if it's the fact that NC State put up 45 points in last week's season opener against Wake Forest, but I don't know what the books are seeing that makes them think the Wolfpack can make a game of this. NC State had 270 yards on 49 rushing attempts against the Demon Deacons. They aren't going to sniff those kind of numbers against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has 10 returning starters on a defense that only gave up 139 ypg last year. I know Bud Foster is gone, but the defense should be improved. I also think you got to look at how much better the offense was last year once Hendon Hooker took over at QB. They put up 34.3 ppg in his 8 starts and he completed 61% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Hokies should have a field day here offensively against a NC State defense that allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The same WF team that had 3 points thru 3 quarters the previous week against Clemson. Give me the Hokies -6.5! |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee -3 v. South Carolina | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 46 m | Show | |
40* TENNESSEE/S CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -3) I think we are getting a gift with the Volunteers only laying a field goal on the road against South Carolina. If there's a team that no one is talking about that could make some series noise in the SEC this year, I think Tennessee has to be at the top of that list. Sure the expectations are high, but no one is giving this team a shot at winning the East. It's all Georgia and Florida. I'm not saying they will, but they beat Georgia last year and played Florida tough. Tennessee is now in year three under Jeremy Pruitt and will have 17 returning starters. With a healthy Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback, the offense should take a huge jump this year. As for the defense, it's only gotten better since Pruitt arrived. Vols allowed 27.9 ppg in his first year with only 6 starters back and 21.7 ppg last year with only 5 starters back. South Carolina went just 4-8 last year and should be improved, I don't think they are anywhere close in terms of talent. I also think it's a big deal that Williams-Brice has a fan limit on games. Give me the Volunteers -3! |
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09-26-20 | Mississippi State +17 v. LSU | Top | 44-34 | Win | 100 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
50* MISS ST/LSU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mississippi State +17) I will gladly take the 17-points with Mike Leach and Mississippi State against LSU. Last year was something special, but I'm just not buying the Tigers being anywhere close to what they were given what they lost. LSU has just 8 starters back from their title team. Not only do they have to replace the Heisman winner in Joe Burrow, but WR Justin Jefferson and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire both were 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It's not just the players either, LSU lost their passing game coordinator in Joe Brady and one of the best defensive coordinators coordinators in the country in Dave Aranda (head coach at Baylor). Say what you want about Leach, the guy knows how to coach offense and his teams at Washington State always seemed to be better than expected. I can think back to 2018 when they had only 10 starters back and went 11-2. I think he can do wonders with new quarterback K.J. Costello, who transferred in from Stanford. I also think the defense will be able to hold its own. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Bulldogs won this game. Give me Mississippi State +17! |
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09-26-20 | Georgia Tech -7.5 v. Syracuse | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 34 m | Show | |
40* GEORGIA TECH/SYRACUSE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Tech -7.5) The fact that Georgia Tech is laying more than a touchdown on the road against the Orange, tells you everything you need to know about how little the books think of this Syracuse team. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and be inclined to take the points. Not me. As painful as it was to watch Georgia Tech commit turnover after turnover in their failed attempt to cover against UCF, they are 100% the better team in this matchup. Syracuse hung around at UNC in their opener, but the wheels fell off in the 2nd half and the Tar Heels wound up winning and covering 31-6. The Orange were able to cash in a cover as a 21.5-point dog against Pitt, but that was a lot more lopsided than the final. Panthers had a 342-171 edge in total yards I don't think Georgia Tech is getting enough credit for how good they have been given they had to start out the year against FSU and UCF. As long as they don't turn it over 5 times like they did against the Knights, I think the Yellow Jackets win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Georgia Tech -7.5! |
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09-26-20 | Louisville +3 v. Pittsburgh | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 93 h 31 m | Show | |
40* LOUISVILLE/PITT NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville +3) I think this is a prime spot to jump on the Cardinals after a disappointing showing at home against Miami. A lot of people were laying the -2.5 with Louisville in that game. Including myself. It can be hard to back the same team that just cost you money the week before, especially when it never felt like Louisville was the right team the entire way. Cardinals took a 3-0 lead, but quickly fell behind 14-3 by the end of the 1st quarter. They would get it down to 7 twice in the 3rd quarter, only to give up a TD in a matter of seconds. First they gave up a 75 yard run, then it was a 75 yard pass. I’m not about to say Louisville should have won that game. Even with a 516 to 485 edge in total yards and 29-19 advantage in first downs, Miami was the better team in that game. I do think Louisville hurt themselves in that game. Not finishing drives early and they were -3 in the turnover department. I just think Scott Satterfield and that staff will have the players full attention in practice. I said this earlier in the season, the Cardinals have a bit time talent at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. They also got some really good playmakers at running back and receiver. Pittsburgh was suppose to field a great defense this year, at least until they lost 2nd-Team All-American defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman and one of their top secondary players in Damarri Mathis. Instead of 7 starters back they only return 5 and the loss of Twyman is big. I get the defense shutout Austin Peay in their opener and held Syracuse to 10 points and 171 yards, but that’s nothing to be excited about. This is a massive step up in competition for them and we just saw what Louisville can do against a great defensive team. I don’t love what I see out of the Pitt offense, especially given who they have played. While the Panthers are averaging 137 yards/game on the ground, they only managed 3.5 yards/carry. I think Louisville can really make them one dimensional and I just don’t see Pitt being able to keep pace. Give me the Cardinals +3. |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA -6.5 | 35-37 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
40* MIDD TENN/UTSA CFB SHARP STAKE (UTSA -6.5) I'm backing UTSA laying less than a touchdown at home against the Blue Raiders. I just don't know how Middle Tennessee's defense will be able to make enough stops to keep this close. The Blue Raiders lost 42-0 in their opener to Army and were outgained 368 to 184. That's a ton against a team like the Black Knights who don't throw the ball (shortens the game). They followed that up with a 47-14 loss to Troy, getting outgained 496-241. The books weren't even close with the spreads for either of those games. Middle Tennessee was only +3.5 against Army and the same +6.5 against Troy. I get UTSA isn't a great team, but they won their first two games and have a dual threat QB in Frank Harris (rushed for 155 yards and 5 scores in 2 games). Bad defenses against mobile quarterbacks, usually doesn't go well. Give me the Roadrunners -6.5! |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 42 m | Show |
50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5) I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease. Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7.5 | 42-10 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 13 m | Show | |
40* UAB/S ALABAMA NCAAF NO BRAINER (S Alabama +7.5) I played and won on the Jaguars in their 32-21 upset win at Southern Miss as a 12-point dog in Week 1. I've also played against UAB early on (@ Miami) and cashed. Hard for me to not take South Alabama catching more than a TD at home. I don't think it would be a shock at all if the Jags won this game. UAB gets a lot of love for what they have done, but last year's trip to the C-USA title game was real fluky. They weren't that good of a team and we saw that in the title game, which they lost 49-6 to FAU. They have been overpriced by the books in each of their first two, as they only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a near 3 TD favorite in Week 1. Give me South Alabama +7.5! |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +6 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
40* SAINTS/RAIDERS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Raiders +6) I'm going to put my trust in Jon Gruden and the Raiders as a near touchdown dog at home on Monday Night Football. I just feel there's too much value with Las Vegas to pass up. I know the Saints pulled away from Tom Brady and the Bucs in their 34-23 Week 1 win and cover, but I wasn't all that impressed with New Orleans. At least not to the extent of others. Drew Brees was only 18 of 30 for 160 yards (5.3 per attempt). New Orleans as a team only had 271 total yards. They still don't have Mike Thomas and he's such a huge part of what they do offensively. Raiders snuck out a 34-30 on the road in Week 1 at Carolina. Plenty Las Vegas has to work on, but I thought they ran the ball really well with Jacobs and Booker. Derek Carr also played well. I think they can play ball control and keep the possessions down. If they do that, they might win this game outright. Give me the Raiders +6! |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5) I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami. I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something. The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2. On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago. Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5! |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals -6.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 99 h 7 m | Show |
50* NFC *MAX BET* PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals -6.5) I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan. He was the reason I was on Arizona over their win total last year. There’s been nothing but positive things said about this kid since he got into the league. He was absolutely sensational in last week’s win against the 49ers, completing 65% of his attempts for 230 yards and rushing for another 91 yards on 13 attempts. He’s going to have to run less as he gets older if he wants to do this for a long time, but for now it makes him and this Arizona offense extremely difficult to guard, especially now that he has one of the best receivers in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins. I just see Murray and the Cardinals offense doing as they please in this one. I know Washington’s run defense held the Eagles in check, but Philly was without their top back in Miles Sanders. Eagles were also without top wideout Alshon Jeffery and two multiple pro bowl offensive linemen in right tackle Lane Johnson and right guard Brandon Brooks. I also think this Washington offense is going to end up being one of the worst in the league. I’m sorry but Dwayne Haskins is not an NFL quarterback. He went 17 of 31 for 178 yards in their win. They also don’t got anything that excites me at the skill positions. Arizona’s defense isn’t great, but this is a much easier task than what they just faced in the 49ers. Give me the 49ers -6.5 |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 98 h 58 m | Show | |
40* FALCONS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (OVER 52.5) I'm a little bit surprised this number isn't higher. These are two explosive offenses that want to air it out to all their big playmakers at receiver. Dallas has a great back in Zeke, but Dak is not shy about letting it fly. I know the Cowboys/Rams game went way UNDER in Week 1. A lot of that was the Rams playing ball control offense. LA rushed it 40 times (Dallas only ran it 27). Atlanta isn't going to play ball control offense. Falcons put up over 500 yards in Week 1 and only 72 of those came on the ground. Should be enough possessions to push this game well past the mark. Give me the OVER 52.5! |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 44 h 53 m | Show | |
40* VIKINGS/COLTS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3) I’m going to lay the field goal with the Colts at home against the Vikings. I almost laid the touchdown with Indianapolis in Week 1 at Jacksonville. Glad I didn’t, but I’m not so sure it wasn’t the right play despite the result. The Colts had a 445 to 241 edge in total yards. They outgained the Jaguars by 204 yards. That was the best yardage differential of any team in Week 1. I know Philip Rivers had a couple of costly interceptions that led to the score being what it was, but I still think he makes the Colts a contender. Losing Marlon Mack to a season-ending injury is a big blow, but they drafted a guy who many thought was going to overtake him in Jonathan Taylor. I think this offense is going to be able to whatever they want against this Vikings defense. Minnesota was gashed in Week 1, allowing a league-worst 522 yards to the Packers. Not only did Aaron Rodgers carve them up for 364 yards and 4 scores, Green Bay rushed for 158 yards and 4.9 yards/carry. This is not your typical Mike Zimmer defense. They don’t got legit NFL corners on their roster. They knew the ball was going to Davante Adams and there was nothing they could do to stop it. Adams had 14 catches for 156 yards and 2 scores. Minnesota is also not nearly as strong on the defensive line and we saw that with how Green Bay ran all over them. Lastly, I think the Indianapolis defense doesn’t get the respect it deserves. They have been getting better and better ever since they drafted linebacker Darius Leonard. I also loved the addition of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. I think they can make life difficult here on Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense. Give me the Colts -3! |
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09-20-20 | Broncos v. Steelers -7 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 46 m | Show | |
40* BRONCOS/STEELERS NFL STEAMROLLER (Steelers -7) I just don't see Drew Lock and that Denver offense being able to score enough to make a game of this. This Steelers defense is the real deal. They just held Saquon Barkley to a mere 6 yards on 15 attempts. Denver does have Melvin Gordon, but the loss of Phillip Lindsay is big for this team. We also don't know if Lock will have wideout Courtland Sutton or KJ Hamler. I think Pittsburgh can make the Broncos one-dimensional. Denver's held the Titans to just 14 points in Week 1, but Tennessee moved the ball up and down the field against them. If it wasn't for all those missed kicks, Titans would have won by double-digits. Pittsburgh has a much more explosive offense than Tennessee. Big Ben is also one of those guys that puts up way better stats at home than on the road. This game doesn't figure to be close for long. Give me the Steelers -7! |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 29 m | Show |
50* MIAMI/LOUISVILLE CFB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Louisville -2.5) We cashed on Scott Satterfield's Cardinals in Week 1. It wasn't the most lopsided of Covers. Louisville only won by 14 (35-21) as a 11.5-point favorite. Thing is the final score doesn't paint the right picture. Louisville dominated that game. They had a massive 487-248 edge in total yards with a 22-12 advantage in first downs. The good news is, I think it's helping us with the line on the Cardinals this week. It's not going to be much longer before people realize how good this Louisville team is. They got a star at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. He threw for 343 yards and 3 scores against the Hilltoppers. That kind of talent at QB with an experienced team is danger. Miami defeated UAB 35-14 as a 15.5-point favorite. A lot of people doubted the Hurricanes could cover that two+ TD spread. I think it now has the Hurricanes a bit overvalued. I had Miami in that game. I just didn't think the Blazers were all people were making them out to be. The Hurricanes had a talent edge across the board. They won't have that against Louisville. Also, that game was closer than the final score would lead on. Miami only led 17-14 midway through the 3rd quarter. I honestly expected a lot more out of the Hurricanes. I just don't know if Manny Diaz is the right guy at head coach for that program. Give me the Cardinals -2.5! |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
40* UCF/GEORGIA TECH NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech +7.5) I couldn't have been more wrong with my assumption of Georgia Tech coming into this season. I just thought this whole transition from the triple-option to a more conventional offense would be a lot harder than it has. Head coach Geoff Collins has sped up the process. That's a good Florida State team that they just went on the road and beat. It wasn't just that the Yellow Jackets wanted it more against the Seminoles. They were the better team. It also feels like they have struck gold with true freshman quarterback Jeff Sims. He went 24 or 35 for 277 passing yards. He also rushed for 64 yards on 13 attempts. He did throw 2 picks, but for me he passed the eye test. He's why this team is a ahead of schedule. I know there's concern of a letdown off the big upset win, I just don't see it happening. I think Georgia Tech is playing with a chip on their shoulder and what better way to make a statement than back up that win with another win. This time against a top 15 team in UCF. One in which Collins has connections with (UCF assistant 2008-09). No way I'm passing up on the 7.5, but I like Georgia Tech to win this game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7.5! |
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09-19-20 | Boston College +6 v. Duke | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 21 m | Show | |
40* BOSTON COLLEGE/DUKE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +6) The Eagles are a team I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. BC went out and hired Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to be their new head coach. Prior to that he spent 7 years as an NFL assistant. HE hired Frank Cignetti to be his OC and Tem Lukabu to be his DC. Both of which have coached at the NFL level. I know the offseason hasn’t been ideal for teams, but I just think the players are going to be all ears with these coaches and the Eagles are an experienced team with 15 starters back. The big concern some might have is how they replace star running back A.J. Dillon and starting quarterback Anthony Brown. One of the first things Hafley did was go out and get Notre Dame transfer quarterback Phil Jorkovec, who many considered a Top 5 option at the position coming out of HS. I know they haven’t named the starter, but I would be shocked if it’s not Jorkovec. As for Dillon, BC has their next star back ready to burst onto the season in junior David Bailey. Guy quietly rushed for 844 yards and 7 scores as Dillon’s backup. He also averaged 5.7 yards/carry, a better mark than Dillon, who was at 5.3 ypc. Add in what should be one of, if not, the best OL in the ACC and an underrated receiving corps that will feature sophomore wide out Jaelen Gill, a transfer who followed Hafley here from the Buckeyes. Defense has been a problem, but that’s where Hafley and Lukabu come into play. I think he’ll be able to put together a game-plan for Duke. This is a letdown for Duke. It’s a big deal playing at Notre Dame and they went into South Bend thinking they could upset a Top 10 team in the Irish. Give me Boston College +5.5! |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5) If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball. Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late. As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5! |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
50* STEELERS/GIANTS MNF MASSACRE (Under 45) I really like the UNDER 45 in the early Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Giants. We know the Steelers defense is going to be good. It carried them last year and just felt like it kept getting better. They were outstanding against the run and should be again. They tied with NE allowing a league-low 7 rushing touchdowns. I think they can take away Barkley and I don't see Daniel Jones having a big day behind an offensive line that has 3 new starters. As for the Steelers offense, there's a lot of optimism with the return of Big Ben. I just don't think he's going to be sharp in his first game back. I certainly don't think they are going to be looking to air it out. I also think people could be sleeping some on the Giants defense. Most just remember how bad it was last year. They added 3 big pieces, including corner James Bradberry and defensive back Logan Ryan. Give me the UNDER 45! |
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09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3 | 16-13 | Push | 0 | 51 h 27 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/BENGALS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Bengals +3) I don't understand at all why the Chargers are favored on the road against the Bengals. I get Cincinnati was bad last year, but all indications are that rookie Joe Burrow is every bit as good as advertised. Not only are they getting a major upgrade at QB, but they also add back a Pro Bowl caliber WR in A.J. Green, who missed all of last year. As for the Chargers, they are making the transition from a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Philip Rivers to the likes of Tyrod Taylor. I'm not saying Taylor is terrible, but if the guy was legit he would have been starting by now. He's a solid No. 2 quarterback. Certainly doesn't help the Chargers are coming into Week 1 with a banged up offensive line. There's some decent talent on the LA defense, but I just think they are going to be on the field a lot and more than anything, I'm rolling the dice on Burrow. Give me the Bengals +3! |