Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44 | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44) I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football. Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy. I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention. On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground. The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44! |
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10-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 219 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219! |
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10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks OVER 233.5 | 104-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 233.5) I'll take my chances here with the Mavs and Hawks eclipsing this high total of 233.5. These two teams are both awful defensively. Dallas comes in giving up 122 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 122.7 ppg. Atlanta has also made a point of trying to play as fast as they can. They are doing a good job of it, as they lead the league in pace of play. Dallas will have no problem playing up-tempo against this team, as they are well equipped to outscore them. Look for this one to get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 233.5! |
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10-23-18 | Kings v. Nuggets OVER 227.5 | Top | 112-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! |
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10-22-18 | Bulls v. Mavs OVER 229 | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 229) Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Both these teams fall into that category. The average score in Bulls' games this season is 239 points and for Dallas it's 148.5. Chicago is giving up 122.5 ppg and Mavs are allowing 128.5 ppg. Give me the OVER 229! |
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10-22-18 | Pacers v. Wolves OVER 226 | 91-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226) Scoring is way up this season in the NBA. Last year the average score for an NBA game was 112.4. While it's really early, this year the average combined score is 226.6. Books are trying to increase the number on these totals, but they are struggling to adjust them enough. I don't think the scoring is going anywhere, as teams are putting a major emphasis on pace and 3-point shooting and I'll continue to look to play the OVER with certain teams. Minnesota is definitely one of them. The average score in Timberwolves' games this season is 250 points, as they are averaging and giving up 125 ppg. Indiana comes in averaging 115 ppg and are giving up 118 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 226! |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5) I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses. I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by. Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season. It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg). I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg. Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5! |
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10-19-18 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 232 | 129-149 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 232) I'll take my chances here with the OVER 232 in Friday's NBA showdown between the Kings and Pelicans. Sacramento is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but I like the offensive talent they got and with Fox at the point they are going to play up-tempo. I believe that's going to lead to an offensive onslaught tonight. The Pelicans were fantastic offensively in their opener at Houston and if they can do that to the Rockets, I see no reason not to expect more of the same here in their home opener. New Orleans might just be the best team in the west no one is talking about, but that won't last for long. I think they could hit 130 points again tonight, but even if they hit just 120, that should be enough to eclipse this mark. Give me the OVER 232! |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42 | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42) I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39. The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one. Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air. It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings. Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42. |
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10-17-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 226 | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 226) I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 226 in tonight's Western Conference clash between the Clippers and Nuggets. This is a massive total and I just don't see them getting to it. Los Angeles is a team that everyone is writing off now that their trio of Griffin Paul and Jordan are all gone. They still have a great head coach in Doc Rivers and are going to play hard. They also have the best defensive backcourt in the league with Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley. For Los Angeles to be competitive early, they are going to have to go all out defensively, as the offense figures to struggle to get going with no go-to guy. That duo of Beverly and Bradley will really make things tough on the Nuggets, as they will lock down Denver's dynamic young backcourt of Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. Give me the UNDER 226! |
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10-17-18 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 219 | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 219) I'll take my chances here with the Bucks and Hornets going OVER the mark of 219. I've really liked what I seen from the Hornets offense in the preseason. They really have put an emphasis on the 3-point shot. They hit 19 of them in their preseason finale against the Mavs and I expect a much more free-flowing offense without Dwight Howard on the roster. This is also one of the more deeper teams in the league and should easily eclipse the 108.2 ppg they averaged last year. Milwaukee is another team that I think is going to take a big step forward offensively, as I loved the hire of Mike Budenholzer, who did some great things with the Hawks. Bucks are going to space things out a lot more and they too figure to shoot a lot more 3-pointers. We saw them connect on 25 from deep in their preseason finale against the Timberwolves with all 5 starters making at least 2. Give me the OVER 219! |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5 | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5) I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points. There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against. KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs. As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense. I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5! |
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10-13-18 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 51 | 16-36 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 51) I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 51 in Saturday's huge SEC cross-division matchup that has No. 2 Georgia visiting No. 13 LSU. I think the only reason this total is as high as it is, is because the Bulldogs come in averaging 42.8 ppg and have scored at least 38 in every game they have played. The thing that people don't take into account is the level of defenses that they have played. The best defense they have played is South Carolina, who doesn't rank in the Top 50 in total defense and is 98th vs the run (194 ypg). This LSU defense is the real deal. They completely shutdown both Miami and Auburn and while they gave up 27 to Florida last week, 7 of those were a result of interception that was returned for a TD by the Gators defense. That was also on the road. Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when LSU is playing well and there's a big time opponent coming to town. I expect them to give this Georgia offense fits and both teams here figure to have a hard time reaching 24 points. Give me the UNDER 51! |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39. Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye. Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one. As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way. I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER. Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5! |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 61 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61) I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit. Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51. I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd. We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts. TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines. It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61! |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total. Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball. With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh. Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine. As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5! |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 52 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 52) I'll take my chances with this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. This just hasn't been a high-scoring series of late. The most these two teams have combined for over the last 3 seasons is 48 points and the last two matchups have seen a combined 27 and 36 points. Given how strong these two teams are on that side of the ball and how big this game is for both teams, I just don't see a shootout taking place. Kentucky's defense has been outstanding to start the year. They come in ranked 11th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279 yards/game. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/play and rank inside the Top 50 agains both the run (21st) and pass (31st). I just don't think people realize how good that Mississippi State offense is and how impressive it was for the Wildcats to hold them to just 201 total yards. South Carolina's defense isn't too far behind. The Gamecocks are 33rd in the country, giving up just 332 yards/game. That's with one of their games coming against an elite Georgia offense. They held Coastal Carolina to just 238 total yards and last week limited the Commodores to just 284 on the road. The other key thing with the defenses is both are great against the run and I feel both of these offenses need to be able to run the football to have success. Kentucky is allowing just 106 rushing yards/game and giving up a mere 3.6 yards/carry against teams that average 5.2. South Carolina is allowing 3.9 yards/carry vs teams averaging 5.5. The Wildcats are 11th in the country in rushing (269 ypg) and just 117th in passing (158.3 ypg), so it's going to be tough sledding for them in this one. The Gamecocks got a good quarterback in Jake Bentley, but when Georgia limited them to a mere 54 yards rushing, they only managed 17 points. UNDER is 5-0 in South Carolina's last 5 road games vs a team with a winning road record and 15-5 in their last 20 conference games overall. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Wildcats last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 50.5! |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49) I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest. It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15. The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense. As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards. The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense. OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49! |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 60 m | Show | |
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores. Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense. Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks. What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one. Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5! |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama OVER 60.5 | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 60.5) I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC clash between Alabama and Texas A&M. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s. I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one. I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs. All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number. The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 60.5! |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51. While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition. The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins. You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game. We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5! |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers OVER 53 | 42-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 53) My strongest play in Week 1 was the Chiefs/Chargers OVER 48. I had a really good feeling this Kansas City offense was going to put up points and at the same time would allow their fair share on the defensive side of the ball. That’s exactly what happened, as the two teams combined for 66 points and more than 900 yards of offense. I know this is a massive total, especially compared to most of the other games on the board for Week 2, but I think these two will easily eclipse this mark. The Chiefs put up 38 points in Week 1 and did so without much help from two of their top targets in Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. That just tells you the talent this team has at the skill positions and I love that Mahomes isn’t just forcing it to his star players. The Steelers defense held the Browns to just 21 points, but that was in less than ideal conditions (heavy wind and rain). This was not the same caliber a defense last year after they lost Ryan Shazier and one I think will struggle in 2018. The big thing that stands out to me is they allowed 177 rushing yards to the Browns. Look for KC to have a balanced attack in this one. As for the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Chiefs defense. I look for Big Ben and company to feast on this KC defense. The Chiefs allowed 541 yards to the Chargers in Week 1 and were very fortunate LA only ended up with 28 points. With Eric Berry out again and all those new faces in the secondary, this unit is going to struggle early. Not to mention Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is a whole different beats at home compared to on the road. OVER is also 9-3 in the Chiefs last 12 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games played early on in the month of September. Give me the OVER 53. |
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09-15-18 | Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 70 | Top | 62-7 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70) I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark. This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay. There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school. I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game. OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70. |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60 | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF FRIDAY OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 60) I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER. One of the big reasons that the Tigers offense struggled against Navy last week is the game was play in sloppy conditions with a steady rain making it less than ideal for Memphis' high-powered passing attack. Those conditions certainly played a part in the Tigers turning it over 4 times. Memphis' offense has to feel like they gave that game away and I look for them to come out looking to lay it on the Panthers. I just don't see Georgia State being able to do anything to stop them. The Panthers were torched by NC State's Ryan Finley this past Saturday, as Finley went 31 of 38 for 370 yards. They also let Kennesaw State's Chandler Burks average 10.6 yards/attempt in their near loss to the Owls at home in Week 1. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Memphis put up 50+ points, which is why I would have to side with them on the spread. However, I do think Georgia State is going to be able to put some points on the board. The Panthers appear to have found something in JUCO quarterback transfer Dan Ellington, who has completed 63% of his attempts for 381 yards with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio. I know the Memphis defense has looked great the first two games, but one was against a bad Mercer team and the other was against the one-dimensional Navy option offense. Playing on short rest and off that emotional loss, I think the defense could come out flat. I think if we can get a mere 20-points from Georgia State, this one will easily eclipse the mark. OVER is 7-1 in the Tigers' last 8 non-conference games, 20-8 in their last 28 games at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Sun Belt. Give me the OVER! |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48) I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48! |
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09-07-18 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
50* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the White Sox and Angles going UNDER the 8.5 total set here by the books. The Angels will have Felix Pena on the mound and he's got a 2.14 ERA in 6 road starts. White Sox will counter with their future ace in Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.89 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 15 starts overall and a 2.23 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in 7 starts at home. Add in less than ideal conditions for scoring with winds blowing in from left at close to 15 mph and I don't see either offense doing much in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5 | Top | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5) Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line. I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips. Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one. The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers. OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5! |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern v. Purdue OVER 52.5 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 52.5) This might seem like a high total given the two teams only combined for 36 points in last year’s meeting at Northwestern, which the Wildcats won 23-13. However, that final was a bit misleading, as Purdue only scored 13 points, despite racking up 438 total yards. Northwestern had 14 points in the 1st quarter, but had to settle for 3 field goals the rest of the way. You also have to factor in that game was played in November, when scoring is a lot tougher given the cold conditions. I also think Purdue games are going to be a lot more high-scoring this year. While the offense was better in Brohm’s first season, it didn’t improve as much as people expected given Brohm’s offensive background. A lot of that had to do with the players learning a new system and only 5 starters returning from 2016. Purdue was also able to rely on their defense to win games, so they didn’t have to force things offensively. That’s not going to be the case this year. The Boilermakers figure to take a big step back defensively after losing 9 of their top 12 tacklers. In order for them to win games, they are going to have to put up points and with the talent they have coming back (9 starters) they should average close to 30 ppg. While we are still waiting for the official word on whether Thorson will be available to start for Northwestern, all signs point to him being ready to play, as he’s been practicing fully for a couple weeks now. With Thorson in the lineup, the Wildcats should be able to put up a big number here against this inexperienced Purdue defense. OVER is 10-1 in Purdue’s last 11 home games as a favorite of 3-points or less and 11-3 in Northwestern’s last 14 Big Ten conference road games. Give me the OVER 52.5! |
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08-27-18 | White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 9 in Monday's action that has the Yankees hosting the White Sox. The public loves to back the OVER in Yankee games, especially at home, but I just don't see either offense being able to get much going in this one. Chicago will send out Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.05 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now owns a 2.71 ERA in 13 starts overall. Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who has allowed just 3 runs in his last 2 starts and owns a 2.23 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 5 career starts against the White Sox. Take the UNDER! |
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08-25-18 | Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 46.5 | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF "WEEK ZERO" TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 46.5) New Mexico State has 9 starters back from a defense that only gave up 29.7 ppg and 401 ypg last year. It continued a remarkable turnaround under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. In his first year on the job (2016) he took over a defense that had just allowed 45 ppg and 522 ypg the previous year to only giving up 38.8 ppg and 497 ypg. With all the talent coming back, there’s no reason to think the numbers won’t continue to improve in 2018. As for Wyoming, their defense carried them in 2017. The Cowboys went from giving up 34.1 ppg in 2016 to only allowing 17.5 ppg in 2017. Not only do they have 8 starters back on this side of the ball, but are loaded with juniors and seniors, making them one of the more experienced defenses in the country. You also have to factor in the transition that both teams are going through at quarterback. Everyone knows the kind of talent Allen was. As for the Aggies, they got their own hole to fill at quarterback with the departure of Tyler Rogers. He was a difference maker for that offense in 2017. He completed 62% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards with a solid 27-18 TD-INT ratio. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns. Not only does New Mexico State lose Rogers, but they also lose their top wide out and dynamic running back. Another factor here is coaching. I have a ton of respect for both Martin and Bohl. I’m confident both of these teams will be well prepared for this contest and wouldn’t be shocked if both sides failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5! |
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08-25-18 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's NL East clash between the Braves and Marlins. These two teams combined for just 5 run in Atlanta's 5-0 win on Thursday and only 1 in Miami's 1-0 win on Friday. I look for both offenses to stay ice cold in this one. The Braves will turn to Animal Sanchez, who is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 9 road starts. The Marlins will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, who has a 2.08 ERA and 0.807 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.05 ERA in 10 starts overall at home this season. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-25-18 | Falcons v. Jaguars OVER 38.5 | 6-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NFLX OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 38.5) |
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08-24-18 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's NL Central clash between the Pirates and Brewers. This total is simply too high for the starting pitching matchup. Pittsburgh will send out Joe Musgrave, who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 5 road starts and comes in with a solid 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee will send out Wade Miley, who has a strong 2.18 ERA in 9 starts overall in 2018 and a 2.38 ERA in 3 starts at home. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-23-18 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 10) I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 10 in Thursday's NL West clash between the Padres and Rockies. You have to pick your spots with taking the UNDER at Coors Field, but I feel we have a great number and pitching matchup to get us the win. Colorado will send out Kyle Freeland, who is 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 11 home starts. In those 11 home starts with Freeland on the mound, the UNDER has cashed 10 times. San Diego will counter with Joey Lucchesi, who has a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 7 road starts and a 1.69 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 starts against the Rockies this season. That includes an outing at Colorado, where he gave up just 4 hits and didn't allow an earned run in 6 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 10! |
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08-20-18 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Monday's showdown between two of the best in the AL, as the Red Sox host the Indians. This one will feature a matchup of former Cy Young winners, as Corey Kluber takes the mound for Cleveland and Rick Porcello toes the rubber for Boston. Kluber has been lights out of late, posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.783 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Porcello allowed just 1 run on 2 hits with 10 strikeouts in his last start at Philadelphia and the last time he took the mound at home he threw a 1-run complete game against the Yankees. I also think both pitchers have an edge, as this is the first time this season and just the second time since 2016 that Boston will have faced off against Kluber. Porcello on the other hand hasn't faced the Indians since 2016. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-18-18 | Bengals v. Cowboys OVER 41 | 21-13 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
50* NFLX VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41) We have seen a number of high-scoring games this preseason and I'll gladly take my chances here with the Bengals and Cowboys eclipsing their total of 41. Both first units were impressive in Week 1. Dallas went 75 yards on 10 plays for a TD on their opening drive, while the Bengals needed just 6 plays to cover 64 yards in their route to a TD on their first drive. I think both offenses are really trying to establish something in the preseason. We should see a lot more of the first team offense in this one and I like what I've seen from the backup quarterbacks on both sides. Give me the OVER 41! |
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08-18-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's AL West showdown between the Astros and A's. The intensity of this series got turned up a notch after Oakland's dramatic walk-off 4-3 win in extra innings on Friday. The A's are now just 1-game back of Houston for the AL West lead. I think the early start time after last night's contest really benefits the starters and we have two guys who are really throwing the ball well facing off in this one. Astros are giving the rock to Dallas Keuchel, who has a 2.25 ERA and 1.100 WHIP over his last 3 starts. A's will counter with Trevor Cahill, who is a perfect 3-0 with a ridiculous 0.99 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 7 home starts (UNDER is 6-1). Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-16-18 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Thursday's night cap between the Padres and Diamondbacks. Runs are tough enough to come by at Petco Park when a couple of struggling starters take the mound. I think both teams will have a difficult time getting anything going with tonight's starting pitching matchup. Arizona will give the ball to Play Buchholz, who has a 2.25 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 11 starts. San Diego will counter with one of their top young prospects in Jacob Nix, who was sensational in his first career start last Friday, allowing just 4 hits over 6 shutout innings against the Phillies. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-12-18 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
50* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 8) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in tonight's prime time showdown between the Cubs and Nationals. Chicago has been in a bit of a funk offensively of late and it's unlikely they snap out of it against arguably the best pitcher in the game in Max Scherzer, who is 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in his last 24 starts. While the Nationals roughed up the struggling Jon Lester on Saturday, they now face the red-hot Cole Hamels, who has allowed 1 run on just 10 hits in 11 innings over his first 2 starts with the Cubs. UNDER is 5-0 in Chicago's last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 8-3 in Washington's last 11 road games vs a left-handed starter. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-04-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 8.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates. This one is all about the starting pitching matchup and how both starters should keep the opposing offense in check. St Louis will turn to Austin Gomber, who took a no hitter into the 7th inning of his first big league start. Doing so on the road against the Reds, who play in one of the strongest hitter parks in the majors. Pittsburgh will counter with Ivan Nova, who has been at his best when he throws in front of his home crowd at PNC Park. Nova has a 3.15 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-03-18 | Rockies v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 8.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's matchup that has the Rockies visiting the Brewers. This is all about the home/away splits of today's two starters. Colorado will send out German Marquez, who has a 3.30 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 10 road starts, which is quite a bit better than his 4.90 ERA on the season. Milwaukee will turn to Junior Guerra, wh has a mere 3.43 ERA in 20 starts overall, but owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 12 home starts. UNDER is also 24-10-1 in the Brewers last 35 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 16-5 in Guerra's last 21 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in his previous start. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-02-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
50* NL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's NL West showdown between the Diamondbacks and Giants. No need to overthink this one, we have two of the best starters in the game going head-to-head in this one. San Francisco sends out their ace in Madison Bumgarner against Arizona's ace Zack Greinke. Bumgarner has posted a rock-solid 3.04 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 10 starts after missing a good portion of the season early and has a 2.62 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 30 career starts against the Diamondbacks. Greinke is 12-5 with a 2.96 ERA in 22 starts, owns a 2.39 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 11 home starts and has a 0.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also 12-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 18 career starts against San Francisco. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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07-24-18 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Nationals and Brewers staying UNDER the mark of 9.5 set by the books. This is all about the starting pitching matchup and the strong home/away splits for today's two starters. Washington's Jeremy Hellickson has a 2.53 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 9 road starts. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra has a 2.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 11 home starts. UNDER is 7-2 in Hellickson's 9 road starts and 7-3-1 in Guerra's 11 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5! |
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07-03-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
50* MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 9) These two teams combined for just 7 runs in Monday's series opener, but it could have been a lot higher scoring than that. Most notably the Nationals scored just 3 runs on 3 homers. That was also with two top tier starters on the mound in Scherzer and Porcello. With Brian Johnson going for Boston and Tanner Roark starting for Washington, I think both teams have the potential here to surpass the total on their own. Note that the conditions are going to be miserable for pitching with the heat index expected to be in the 100's. Give me the OVER 9! |
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07-02-18 | Pirates v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers and Pirates staying UNDER the total of 7.5 in Monday's contest. The ball simply doesn't carry well in night games at Dodgers Stadium and I think this is a much better starting pitching matchup than a lot of people realize. Pittsburgh will send out Nick Kingham, who has a sensational 0.991 WHIP in 6 starts and has simply been unlucky to come in with a 3.82 ERA. As for LA, the Dodgers will turn to Alex Wood, who is trending in the right direction with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I look for both teams to struggle to get much going offensively and for this to stay well under the mark. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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06-05-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with St Louis and Miami staying UNDER the total of 8 set by the books. The Marlins' Jose Urena is just 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA, but has pitched much better than the numbers suggest and is coming off a strong outing in his last start against the Padres (allowed 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings). Cardinals will counter with Carlos Martinez, who is 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 8 starts. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 13-3 in St. Louis' 16 games this season when they are playing a team that's won fewer than 38% of their games. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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06-04-18 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 9.5) The Yankees and Tigers should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs in Game 2 of their double-header on Monday. New York has one of the best lineups in baseball and are red-hot at the moment, having scored 23 runs on 47 hits in their last 4 games. They should have no problem keeping it rolling against the Tigers Michael Fiers, who has a 4.44 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 10 starts. I also think Detroit's offense is going to be able to put up a big number, as the Yankees will send out Domingo German, who has a 6.64 ERA in 4 starts overall, a 9.41 ERA in his last 3 outings and in his lone road start this season he gave up 6 runs in just 3 2/3 innings at Texas. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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06-01-18 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5) I'll take my chances here with the Cubs and Mets going OVER the total of 8.5 set by the books. Chicago's hot offensively right now. The Cubs scored 5 runs in Thursday's win over New York and have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7. I like them to stay hot here against Mets' starter Zach Wheeler, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 9 starts overall, a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 outings and a 7.36 ERA in 4 home starts. I also am expecting NY's offense to produce in this one. Cubs will send out Tyler Chatwood, who has struggled with control all season. Chatwood has 45 walks in 48 1/3 innings pitched. He's also got a 6.75 ERA and 2.530 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the OVER 8.5! |
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05-31-18 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 9.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Twins and Indians going UNDER the total of 9.5 on Thursday. I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated number here given how each offense comes into this series. Cleveland has scored 7 or more runs in 5 straight games, but the final 3 were against the White Sox and all 5 were at home. The Indians only average 3.9 runs/game on the road and will be up against a red-hot starter in Jake Odorizzi, who has a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts and 1.14 ERA in 4 home starts. Minnesota has scored 8 or more in 2 of their last 3, but that was against the Royals. The Indians will send out one of their top prospects in Shane Bieber and there's been nothing but good things said about this kid and I expect him to pitch well here. Give me the UNDER 9.5! |
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05-30-18 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with the Cubs and Pirates staying UNDER the mark of 8 set by the books. I really like both starters in this one. Chicago will start Kyle Hendricks, who is coming off a dominant outing against the Giants, where he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 innings. Hendricks has also allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of his last 7 starts against Pittsburgh. Pirates will counter with Joe Musgrove, who was sensational in his first start of 2018, allowing just 5 hits with 7 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings. Take the UNDER 8! |
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05-29-18 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) I'll take my chances with the A's and Rays staying UNDER the mark of 8 set here by the books. Tampa Bay won the series opener yesterday by a final score of 1-0. It continued a great stretch of pitching for the Rays, who have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games. Hard to not like their chances of keeping that streak going, as they send out Blake Snell, who is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts. Oakland's pitching has been equally impressive of late. The A's have allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of their last 3 games and 7 of their last 8 overall. They will give the rock to Daniel Gossett, who is off arguably his best start of the season against the Mariners, allowing just 1 run (unearned) on 4 hits in 7 innings. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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05-29-18 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9) I'll take my chances here with the Tigers and Angels going UNDER the mark of 9 set by the books. This is a really high total given the circumstances. Detroit will send out one of their best starters here in Michael Fulmer, who has pitched well in each of his last 2 outings and owns a respectable 3.91 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 4 home starts. He'll also be facing a struggling LA offense that has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4. Angels will send out Nick Tropeano, who has a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 3 road starts. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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05-27-18 | Braves v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
40* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances here with the Red Sox and Braves staying UNDER the mark of 7.5 set here by the books. It's going to feel like an early spring game, as temps are expected to be in the low 50's, which will definitely keep the ball from carrying. The wind will also be blowing straight in from right field at close to 20 mph. To top it all off, we got ourselves two really good starters on the mound in this one. Boston will send out ace Chris Sale, who is 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 11 starts and owns a 1.96 ERA at home. Atlanta will send out Mike Foltynewicz, who is 3-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts and owns a 2.02 ERA in 5 road outings and a 0.56 ERA in his last 3 starts. Take the UNDER! |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 212.5) As you can tell by the spread, the books aren't expecting a close game in Game 6, as the Warriors are laying close to 13-points at home. While I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State covered the big spread, given they are facing elimination and the Rockets are without a key piece in Chris Paul, I think the real value is with the total. After combining for just 187 points in Game 4 and 192 in Game 5, we have seen the total drop almost 15 points from Game 4 to Game 6. I just think Houston is looking more ahead to Game 7 at home and won't be as good defensively here, especially with Paul sidelined. Golden State is also due for an offensive explosion and I think we see them get to around 220 with Houston doing more than enough to push it over the mark here. Give me the OVER 212.5 |
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05-26-18 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances here with the Indians and Astros staying UNDER the mark of 7.5 set here by the books. These two have combined for at least 10 runs in each of the first two games of the series, but Houston has done all the heavy lifting. The Astros won 8-2 on Thursday and 11-2 yesterday. Last night's game was 2-0 Cleveland going into the 8th before Houston scored 4 runs and then added 7 more in the top of the 9th. I think Indians starter Carlos Carrasco can keep the Astros from going off here, while Cleveland continues to stay cold at the plate against the red-hot Lance McCullers (2.00 ERA last 3 starts). Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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05-24-18 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
50* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 9.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the White Sox and Orioles going UNDER the mark of 9.5 set by the books. Baltimore is in a funk offensively right now. The Orioles have scored just 6 runs in their last 4 games combined. I know the numbers aren't great for Chicago starter Lucas Giolito, but he has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 5 of his 9 starts. The White Sox aren't a great offensive team and I like Orioles starter Dylan Bundy to keep them in check. Bundy has been much better in his last 2 starts after a miserable 3-start stretch that saw him allow 19 runs. Bundy has also been sensational when he takes the mound in day games. He's got a 0.70 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 4 day starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5! |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Celtics and Cavs staying UNDER the mark of 206.5 set by the books. These two teams combined for 113 points in Game 4 to go OVER the total for the first time in the series. Most will just assume this will be another high-scoring game, but the first two games in Boston suggest otherwise. The Celtics were a completely different team defensive in Games 1 and 2 at home, holding the Cavs to 83 and 94 points respectively. I think Cleveland once again has trouble to score away from home. I also think with how big this game is that we get another big effort from the Cavs on the defensive end to keep Boston from going off. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we saw both teams fail to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 206.5! |
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05-23-18 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 8.5) I'll take my chances here with the Phillies and Braves staying UNDER the mark of 8.5 set by the books. Neither offense comes into this one in good form. Atlanta has scored just 3 runs in their last two games and the Phillies have managed just 5 run in their last 3. I don't see either offense getting it turned around in this one. Philadelphia will send out veteran Jake Arrieta, who has a 2.82 ERA in 8 starts. Arrieta also owns a 1.07 ERA in 4 home starts and is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 5 career starts against the Braves. Atlanta counters with Luiz Gohara, who will be making his first start of 2018 after 3 quality outings out of the bullpen. Gohara started 5 games last year and really pitched well after a poor outing in his debut. His final start of 2017 came against the Phillies, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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05-20-18 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
50* MLB (NL) TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 8.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Pittsburgh/San Diego finishing under the total set here of 8.5. I just think this is way too big a number given the form of today's two starters. San Diego will give the rock to Jordan Lyles, who appears to have figured something out. Lyles made his 2018 debut on 5/10 and allowed just 1 run with 6 strikeouts in 5 innings. He followed that up by allowing just 1 hit over 7 1/3 shutout innings. I'm buying these two starts in a big way. Lyles has 16 strikeouts to just 2 walks. Pittsburgh counters with Trevor Williams, who has a sensational 2.72 ERA in 9 starts overall and a 2.22 ERA in 4 outings at home. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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05-18-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
50* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with the Indians and Astros staying UNDER the mark set here by the books. The starting pitching matchup might not feature the elite names that you would expect to see for a pitcher's duel, but we got two of the best in the game for 2018 with Cleveland's Mike Clevinger and Houston's Charlie Morton. Clevinger is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in 8 starts and has a 0.83 ERA in 3 road outings. Morton is 5-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 8 starts and owns a 1.96 ERA in 4 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 119-106 | Push | 0 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
40* WARRIORS/ROCKETS TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 225) This has the feeling of an NBA Finals matchup, as most people agree that the winner of this series is going to end up the champs when it's all said and done. I know both teams are littered with elite offensive players, but it's their defense that makes them so special. These are two of the best defensive teams in the game. I just think that given what's at stake and how important each game is, both of these teams will be giving everything they got on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be shocked if these two failed to eclipse 210. Give me the UNDER 225! |
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05-12-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 8) These two offenses are simply too good to continue to produce at the anemic level they have the past few games. The two teams have combined for a whopping 7 runs in the first 2 games of this series. I think that's all about to change. While the Nationals will send out one of their better starters in Stephen Strasburg, he's been up or down and owns a mere 3.52 ERA in 8 starts. He also gave up 5 runs on 6 hits in 6 1/3 innings at home agains Arizona earlier this season. On the flip side of this, the Nationals could eclipse this total on their own. The Diamondbacks are calling up Troy Scribner to make a start from the minors and he's got a less than impressive 5.68 ERA at Triple-A Reno this year. Take the OVER 8! |
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05-08-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with the A's and Astros finishing UNDER the mark set here by the books. For me, it's all about the starting pitching matchup, which features two guys on top of their game early on in 2018. Houston will send out Lance McCullers, who is 4-1 with a 3.73 ERA in 7 starts and owns a 1.80 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Oakland will give the rock to Sean Manaea, who has a 1.63 ERA and 0.664 WHIP in 7 starts overall and a 0.73 ERA and 0.405 WHIP in 3 starts at home. Take the UNDER 8! |
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05-08-18 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 208 | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 208) I'll take my chances here with the Jazz/Rockets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. All the attention with Houston is on their offense and how many 3-pointers they make and take. What is getting overlooked is their defense, which has shined in the last 2 games. After giving up 116 in a loss at home in Game 2, the Rockets held the Jazz to 92 on 41.7% shooting in Game 3 and 87 points on 38.6% shooting in Game 4. With a chance to put the series away, I expect another big effort from Houston at home in Game 5. AT the same time, we are going to get a max effort here from Utah facing elimination. Take the UNDER 208! |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5) I'll take my chances here with the Mets and Phillies going OVER the mark set here by the books. Both teams should be in store for a big day at the plate. New York is being forced to call up P.J. Conlon to start this game and this isn't one of the prized prospects in the Mets organization. Conlon is just 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA at Triple-A and it's hard seeing him excel in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in his big league debut. Cincinnati will send out Homer Bailey, who is 0-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 7 starts. His last two outings, both at home, he's given up 9 runs on 13 hits (4 HRs) and has just 2 strikeouts in those 10 innings of work. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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05-06-18 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 7) I'll take my chances here with Sunday's MLB action between the Phillies and Nationals staying UNDER the total set by the books. Not a lot of explanation needed for why we can expect a bad offensive day for Philadelphia. The Nationals will be sending out Max Scherzer, who has arguably been the best starter of 2018. Scherzer is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.816 WHIP in 7 starts. Most impressive is his 65 strikeouts in 45 1/3 innings. Phillies will counter with Jake Arrieta, who is coming off a poor start, but was dominant in his first 3. Arrieta should bounce back with a strong showing and limit Washington to keep us under the mark. Give me the UNDER 7! |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 232 | 100-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 232) I'll take my chances here with the Pelicans and Warriors going OVER this big total set by the books. These two teams combined for 124 in Game 1 with Curry sidelined. He returned in Game 2 and came off the bench with 28 points and the two combined for 137. I know defense usually wins out over a series in the playoffs, but these two teams play at such a frantic tempo that they are going to score a ton even if they don't shoot well. New Orleans offense has been great the entire postseason, but it was exceptional in their 2 home games against the Blazers in the first round. I expect their offense to improve at home in Game 3, but I don't know that they will be able to do anything to slow down Golden State's offensive attack. Keep in mind the Warriors scored 121 in Game 2 with Thompson scoring just 10 points and Durant/Thompson going a mere 4-18 from deep. Give me the OVER 232! |
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05-03-18 | Yankees v. Astros UNDER 8 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
40* MLB AFTERNOON TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with the Yankees and Astros going UNDER the mark of 8 set by the books. This entire series has been a pitchers duel. Houston won the series opener 2-1 and New York won both game 2 and game 3 by a final of 4-0. With the Yankees sending out Masahiro Tanaka and the Astros countering with Lance McCullers Jr., my money is on the offenses remaining in a funk. Tanaka has been lights out in his last 2 starts, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits with 14 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. McCullers has a 0.90 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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05-03-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 9 | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
40* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9) I'll take my chances here with the Braves/Mets combining for at least 10 runs in Thursday's series finale. Atlanta might eclipse this number on their own. The Braves are averaging 5.6 runs/game in their last 7 (hitting .307 as a team). They are also average 7.0 runs in 9 day games this season. They will be facing Jason Vargas, who was downright awful in his first start of 2018, allowing 9 runs in 3 2/3 innings to the Padres in San Diego. I know the Mets' offense has been slumping, but I think they can get back on track here against Julio Teheran, who as a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2 road starts. It's also ideal hitting conditions with temps in the low 90's and the wind blowing out to right center at 15+ mph. Give me the OVER 9! |
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05-01-18 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9) I'll take my chances here with Tuesday's matchup between the Angels and Orioles reaching at least 10 runs. This is about a favorable a pitching matchup for the offense you are going to find. Baltimore will send out Alex Cobb, who has a 13.11 ERA and 2.828 WHIP in 3 starts. Cobb has allowed at least 5 runs and 10 hits in all 5 outings. The bigger concern is that he's recorded just 4 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, which tells me he's not right and chances are he's not going to keep struggling. Angles will counter with Nick Tropeano, who has a 4.67 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 3 starts. That's with throwing 6 2/3 shutout innings at KC against the horrible Royals offense. In his last 2 starts he's given up 9 runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in 10 2/3 innings of work. I think both teams have a shot of eclipsing this total on their own. Give me the OVER 9! |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | 101-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NBA '76ERS/CELTICS' TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 207.5) The Celtics just cant catch a break in the injury department, as they will be without Jaylen Brown for Game 1 tonight against Philadelphia. That's a crushing loss for Boston on the offensive side of the ball. It's not going to kill the defense, as they can just play Smart in his spot and he's arguably a better defender, but not as skilled offensively. I look for the Celtics to really rely on their defense in this game and I think they could make it really tough on the 76ers. Miami was a great matchup for Philadelphia in the first round. I think Boston knows this team a lot better and will be able to make it a lot harder. There's also a drastic difference in playing on the road in Boston than Miami in the postseason. This is going to be the first real hostile environment for the 76ers in the postseason and I think we could see some rust here for Philadelphia having last played 6 days ago. Give me the UNDER 207.5! |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 195.5 | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 195.5) I'll take my chances with Game 7 between the Celtics and Bucks finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. This series has really shifted to a defensive battle. After combining for at least 206 in each of the first 4, they scored just 179 in Game 5 and 183 in Game 6. The Bucks have held the Celtics to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last 4 games and Boston held Milwaukee to a mere 87 points on 37% shooting last time these two played at the Garden. With this being a winner-take-all scenario, I think the pressure and defensive intensity from both sides will have this game finishing in the 180's. Take the UNDER 195.5! |
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04-27-18 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8.5) I'll take my chances here with the Rays and Red Sox finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. I think we have a real pitchers matchup in this one. Tampa will send out Blake Snell, who is 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.988 HWIP in 5 starts, which includes an outing agains these Red Sox where he allowed just 3 hits over 5 2/3 shutout innings. Boston will counter with Drew Pomeranz, who will be making just his second start of 2018. The first wasn't great, as he lasted just 3 2/3 innings after allowing 3 runs, but he did have 7 strikeouts and we know the talent is there from how well he pitched a year ago. I think he shines here at home against a relatively weak Tampa offense. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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04-24-18 | Mets v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 6-5 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with the Cardinals and Mets finishing UNDER the total set here by the books. We have to solid starting pitchers taking the mound in a pitcher's park. New York will give the ball to Zack Wheeler, who allowed just 4 runs on 9 hits in 13 innings over his first 2 starts. St Louis will counter with Luke Weaver, who has pitched much better than his 4.22 ERA would suggest. Most of that damage to Weaver's ERA came in one start at Chicago, where he gave up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings. Prior to that he'd allowed just 4 runs on 12 hits in 17 1/3 innings over 3 starts. Weaver was also fantastic in his lone start at home, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 K's in 6 1/3 innings against a really good Diamondbacks offense. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-21-18 | Twins v. Rays UNDER 8 | 1-10 | Loss | -126 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) I'll take my chances here with the Twins and Rays going UNDER the mark set by the books. These two teams combined for 15 runs on Friday, but that was with a couple of struggling starters on the mound in Lance Lynn and Chris Archer. It's a different story in this one. Minnesota will give the ball to Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.68 ERA in 3 starts and the Rays will counter with Blake Snell, who has a 2.95 ERA in 4 starts. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Gibson's last 5 starts on the road and 6-2-1 in the Twins last 9 vs a left-handed starter. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Rays last 8 vs a right handed starter. Give me the UDNER 8! |
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04-20-18 | Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9 | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9) I'll gladly take my chances with Friday's game between the Brewers and Marlins going over the mark set by the books. Miami isn't a great offensive team, but they should be able to push across a few more runs than normal against the struggling Jhoulys Chacin of the Brewers. Chacin has posted a 5.60 ERA and 1.924 WHIP in 4 starts and is averaging just 4.4 innings/start. If by chance Chacin pitches well, I still think we got a great shot of going over, as I could see Milwaukee eclipsing this total on their own. The Brewers did just that last night, as they put up 12 runs on 13 hits. Hard to not see another big night at the plate given Miami is sending out Trevor Richards, who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 3 starts. He also struggles to pitch deep in games (avg. 5.1 innings), which is worth noting given the Marlins bullpen has posted a 9.20 ERA and 1.871 WHIP in 6 road games this season. Give me the OVER! |
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04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances here with the Pirates and Phillies staying UNDER the mark set here by the books. I just don't see either team generating much offense in this one. Pittsburgh will send out Jameson Taillon, who has looked like a legit Cy Young Candidate in his first 3 starts, posting a 0.89 ERA and 0.689 WHIP, which includes a complete game shutout against the Reds back on 4/8. Philadelphia will send out one of their key free agent signings in Jake Arrieta, who after a shaky first start was much better the second time around, allowing just 2 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay. Adding to the value here is mother nature figures to help out both starters. Temps will be in the 40's with the wind blowing straight in from left field at close to 20 mph. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-17-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 8) I'll take my chances here with the Giants and Diamondbacks staying well below the mark set here by the books. I just feel there's too much value to pass up with the total sitting at 8 runs given the starting pitching matchup we have here. San Francisco will send out Johnny Cueto, who returns from an ankle injury. It's back to full strength and given it wasn't an arm related issue, I see no reason not to expect him to return to the form that saw him post a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in his first 2 starts. On the flip side of this, I don't see the Giants scoring much either. For starters SF doesn't have a great offense and they are going up against Pat Corbin, who is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 3 starts. What really stands out is the 29 strikeouts he's recorded in 18 1/3 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-17-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 7.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Game 1 of this NL Central rivalry going UNDER the mark set by the books. It's all about the conditions when it comes to betting the total in Chicago's home games. Today is going to favor the pitchers, as temps will be in the 30's with the wind blowing straight in from center. I also like the pitching matchup. St Louis will send out Adam Wainwright, who is coming off a great start against the Brewers and allowed just 4 runs over 19 2/3 innings in his 3 starts against the Cubs last year. Chicago countess with Tyler Chatwood, who I think is going to have a great season now that he's not pitching half his games at Coors Field. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-16-18 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (OVER 8) I'll take my chances here with the Braves and Phillies combining for more than 8 runs. I know we have a couple of decent starters here in Aaron Nola and Julio Teheran, but these are also two really good offenses. The Phillies are averaging 5.6 runs/game and the Braves are at 5.9 runs/game. Runs have been plentiful in Atlanta's 6 home games, as the average combined score has by 12.5 runs. With close to a 20 mph wind blowing straight out to left field, I think we fly over the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 8! |
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04-13-18 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 9) I'll take my chances here with Friday's MLB action between the Rockies and Nationals flying OVER the total set here by the books. We have two really good offensive teams, who are capable of eclipsing this mark on their own. I expect both to contribute here, as this isn't a great pitching matchup with the Nationals sending out Tanner Roark against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Both of these starters served up 2 homers in their last start and both figure to have a hard time keeping it in the park tonight, as the wind will be blowing straight out to center at more than 15 mph. Give me the OVER 9! |
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04-10-18 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 8) I'll take my chances here with this game staying well below the number set by the books. The Mets will send out Jacob deGrom against a bad Miami offense. The key here being that I think the Marlins Caleb Smith can keep New York's offense in check. Smith has a 4.32 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in 2 starts, but has shown some promising signs with 12 strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings. He was also much better at home and this is a Met's lineup that struggles against lefties. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-08-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 8.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the Cubs/Brewers going UNDER the total set by the books. Both of these NL Central teams have really struggled at the plate in the early going. Chicago is hitting a mere .223 as a team and the Brewers aren't much better with a .245 team average. I don't see either offense getting on track in this one, as we have a great pitching matchup here with the Cubs sending out Jose Quintana against the Brewers Chase Anderson. Quintana has a 0.90 ERA and 0.733 WHIP in 4 career starts against Milwaukee, while Anderson has allowed just 5 runs over 15 innings in his two home starts against the Cubs and has allowed 3 or fewer in 6 of his 7 starts against Chicago. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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04-07-18 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8 | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) I'll take my chances with Saturday's MLB total between the Mariners and Twins finishing well below the mark set by the books. The conditions here are going to heavily favor today's starters, as the temperature is expected to be below freezing for the duration of this one. That's going to make it tough for either team to push across many runs and we do have a couple of starters here coming off strong first starts. Seattle's Mike Leake allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings against the Indians, while Minnesota's Jose Berrios tossed a complete game shutout on the road against the Orioles. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 | Top | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223.5) My money is on the Bucks and Nuggets going OVER the total set here by the books. Milwaukee has seen the OVER go 10-1 in their last 11 games, as they continue to light it up on the offensive side and struggle to defend on the defensive side. The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in 9 of their last 11 games and have allowed 100+ in all 11. The Nuggets are in a similar boat, as the OVER is 4-1-1 in their last 6. During this 6-game stretch Denver is averaging 120.7 ppg and allowing 118.8 ppg for an average combined score just under 240. Give me the OVER 223.5! |
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04-01-18 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 5-1 | Win | 107 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances here with this game going UNDER the mark set by the books. These are two starters that I'm really high on in 2018. St Louis give the rock to Luke Weaver, who is one of the promising young starters in the game. Weaver went 7-2 in 10 starts a season ago and was sensational in spring training, posting a 0.55 ERA in 16 2/3 innings of work. The Mets counter with Steven Matz, who is primed for a big bounce back season after an injury riddled 2017 campaign. He was sharp in spring, posting a 21:9 K to BB ratio over 20 innings and had won 13 games with an ERA around 3.00 over his first two seasons in the big leagues. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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04-01-18 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8.5) I'll take my chances with the Rays and Red Sox finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston will send out Hector Velazquez, who was impressive in his brief stint at the big league level last year after coming over from the Mexican league. He pitched in 8 games and made 3 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He'll take on a Tampa Bay offense that really hasn't done anything outside of that 6-run 9th inning in the opener. If you take away that big inning, the Rays have scored a mere 2 runs over their other 26 innings they have played. Tampa will counter with Jacob Faria, who is a promising young starter that posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 14 starts last year. Boston should be one of the better offensive teams, but have scored just 8 runs in the first 3 games of the series. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 | 79-95 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB FINAL FOUR TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 155) I'll take my chances with the UNDER in the Final 4 matchup between Villanova and Kansas. There's no denying that these are two great offensive teams. The Wildcats are averaging 86.6 ppg on the season and the Jayhawks aren't far behind at 81.4 ppg. Kansas' last game against Duke ended up with a 85-81 final, but that game went to OT after the two were tied at 72-72 at the end of regulation. I think Duke is every bit as good, if not better, offensively than Villanova and I just think the number here is way too high given how much pressure is on both teams, how good both teams are defensively and the week each team has had to prepare for the other side. Give me the UNDER 155! |
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03-30-18 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) It's no secret that San Diego's Petco Park is one of the best pitching stadiums in all of baseball. It certainly held true to that form on Opening Day, as the Brewers and Padres combined for just 3 runs in 12 innings of Milwaukee's 2-1 win. It's going to be a cool night in San Diego tonight, as game-time temps are expected to be in the low 60's. I also think we have an underrated pitching matchup here. Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin pitched for the Padres last year and had a 1.79 ERA at Petco. San Diego will counter here with Joey Lucchesi, who most people haven't heard of. Lucchesi is getting the nod because of Lament's unexpected trip to the DL. I think there's a lot of potential with Lucchesi, who posted a 2.20 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) last year between single and and double a. He also had a 1.54 ERA in just under 12 innings of work in spring training. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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03-30-18 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 197 | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 197) My money is on the UNDER in this one, as we have the Jazz hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis comes in off back-to-back upset wins over the Timberwolves and Blazers and their defense played a big part in both of those wins. The Grizzlies held Minnesota to just 93 points on the road and followed that up by allowing just 103 to Portland. Those are two of the better offensive teams in the league. While the defense has been much better of late, the offense is still a mess. Memphis is averaging just 97.2 ppg over their last 5 games, a stretch in which they have also shot just 43.4% from the field. Utah is an elite defensive team, especially at home, where they are giving up just 96.9 ppg and holding teams to just 43.5% shooting. Coming off an upset loss at home to a short-handed Boston team and the Jazz far from safe in the west playoff race (currently 8th), I think we get a big effort here from the Jazz and this game stays well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 197! |
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03-29-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) I'll gladly take my chances with Thursday's Opening Day action between the Braves and Phillies staying under the mark set by the books. I think we have two very underrated starters on the mound here with Philadelphia's Aaron Nola and Atlanta's Julio Teheran. On top of that, the conditions here are going to heavily favor a low scoring game, as there's expected to be around a 15 mph wind blowing in from right center. UNDER was 15-5-1 in Teheran's last 21 starts in 2017 and a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs the NL East. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Atlanta. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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03-28-18 | Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 194.5 | Top | 97-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 194.5) My money is on Wednesday's NBA action between the Celtics and Jazz going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston has been hit hard with injuries. They are without both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart and aren't expected to have Marcus Morris for this game against the Jazz. Morris has been one of the Celtics best scorers with Irving out, as he leads the team with 18.3 ppg in the month of March. I just have a hard time seeing Boston being to get much of anything going offensively on the road against the Jazz, who are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially at home, where they are allowing just 96.9 ppg and holding opponents to 43.5% shooting. While The Celtics offense figures to struggle, I expect them to play hard defensively, which has been a staple of this team under Stevens. I don't see either team reaching the century mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! |
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03-26-18 | Knicks v. Hornets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 128-137 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 221.5) I'll take my chances with the Knicks/Hornets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. Charlotte is averaging 109.6 ppg over their last 5, but that's a bit misleading, as they had a 140 points in 1 game against the Grizzlies. That's the only one of the five that went OVER the total. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Knicks last 5. With New York playing well and the Hornets fighting for their playoff lives, I look for a much lower-scoring game than what the books are expecting with this number in the 220s. Give me the UNDER 221.5! |
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03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 216.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. I'm expecting this game between the Blazers and Thunder to have a playoff-like atmosphere, as there's a lot at stake for both sides. Right now the Blazers own the No. 3 spot in the West, but they hold a slim 1-game edge over Oklahoma City. Keep in mind that Portland is just 3.5-games ahead of 8th place Utah. Given what is at stake, I think both sides will bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that both teams are playing well on that side coming in, as each is giving up right around 103.5 ppg over their last 5 contests. This is also a division game and the average combined score for both teams in division games this year have been right around 207 points. I think we see a final score close to that, making this an easy play for me given the price. Give me the UNDER 216.5! |
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03-22-18 | Hawks v. Kings UNDER 212.5 | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 212.5) The Hawks come in off a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as a 13.5-point dog, but that was more of the Jazz not showing up to play. What gets lost in the win is how bad the Hawks were offensively, though it shouldn't come as a surprise. It was the 8th time in their last 9 road games that they failed to score more than 100 points. It hasn't been going much better offensively for the Kings, who have scored 98 or fewer in each of their last 3 games. I know the defenses aren't great here, but I just feel this total is way too high given the lack of talent both teams have offensively. Give me the UNDER 212.5! |
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03-19-18 | Bulls v. Knicks OVER 217 | 92-110 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (OVER 217) Two of the NBA's worst will face off tonight when the Knicks host the Bulls. Both teams are in tank mode and it would do them a lot better in the long-run to lose this game rather than win. I don't think either team will have any interest in playing any defense and these aren't great defensive teams to start with. Each of Chicago's last 4 games have seen at least 218 combined points and 4 of the Knicks last 5 have seen at least 125 points. Give me the OVER 217! |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 130.5 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 130.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER in this one. These are two teams that have made it this far in large part because of how good they are defensively. Loyola-Chicago ranks in the Top 50 in both 2-point and 3-point percentages allowed and combine that with a very methodical pace that just makes it hard for the other team to get in any kinda of rhythm. They allowed Miami to shoot 50% in the first round, but the Hurricanes only finished with 62 points. Tennessee on the other hand is an elite defense that isn't just a result of playing in the SEC. It's really carried them, as they are not a great shooting team. Look for both offenses to really struggle to get open looks and with a slow pace of play, this should might struggle to hit 120. Take the UNDER 130.5! |
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03-16-18 | Lipscomb v. North Carolina OVER 159.5 | 66-84 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 159.5) I'll take my chance with Friday's game between North Carolina and Lipscomb going over the mark here set by the books. I know this is a high-total and tournament games can be low-scoring, but I just feel the matchup and most importantly the pace will have this one flying past the number. The only way to slow down this potent Tar Heels offensive attack is to slow the game down and make them beat you in the half-court. That's not how the Bisons are built to play. Lipscomb wants to try and beat teams with their frantic up-tempo attack and aren't going to change their ways for this game. Keep in mind that UNC put up 90+ on 5 different occasions inside ACC play and are capable of hanging 100 on the Bisons if they get hot from the outside. Lipscomb scored 100+ in 3 games this season, including 108 in the Atlantic Sun title game over Florida Gulf Coast. Give me the OVER 159.5! |
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03-15-18 | San Diego State v. Houston UNDER 143 | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 75 h 0 m | Show |
50* WEST REGION SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 143) My money is on Thursday's game between San Diego State and Houston finishing under the mark set here by the books. Both of these teams are built around their defense. Only Cincinnati posted a better defensive efficiency in the AAC than the Cougars. Houston not only plays great defense, but they do an excellent job of limiting second-chance points. That's going to make it tough for San Diego State to score. The Aztecs were the best defensive team in the MWC, thanks in large part to their length. All that size is great, but if you can play good defense like Houston does, you can make it really hard on San Diego State to score, as they aren't a great 3-point shooting team. I just think this is the ideal recipe for a low-scoring grind it out type of game and we are getting a great price to back the under here. Give me the UNDER 143! |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin v. Texas Tech OVER 138 | 60-70 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 138) I don't like to play a ton of OVERS in the first round, but I just feel the price is more than right to gamble with the OVER in Thursday's game between Texas Tech and Stephen F. Austin. While both of these teams play good defense, they also both create a lot of turnovers and love to push the pace. The Lumberjacks know they aren't going to beat the Red Raiders in a half-court game and will do everything they can to speed up the pace. Note that Stephen F. Austin played 3 Power 5 opponents in non-conference play. Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri. All 3 of those games saw a combined 155 or more points with all 3 Power 5 schools scoring at least 80 points. My numbers have this finishing closer to 150 than 140, so there's plenty of wiggle room to work with. Give me the OVER 138! |