Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Exit Texas A&M. Enter Rutgers. The result is Wake Forest is going to win this Gator Bowl. The question is by how many? The Aggies had to pull out due to COVID problems. Rutgers was chosen to replace Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights' season should have ended at the end of November since they are 5-7. They weren't even eligible to play in a bowl. But strange things happen in this COVID-laced sports world. So, just barely a week ago, the Scarlet Knights found out they are going to a bowl game after all. This one. Two things: Rutgers isn't a legitimate bowl team and the Scarlet Knights don't nearly have enough time mentally and physically to adequately prepare for this game. The line has been steamed up and it's justified. Wake Forest has a very strong offense averaging 41.2 points a game, fifth-best in the country. Sam Hartman was one of the most productive QB's in the nation. Rutgers ranked 79th in total defense and that's playing against a number of boring offenses in the Big Ten. The Demon Deacons aren't nearly as good defensively, but Rutgers is very weak offensively ranking 113th in points scored and 118th in yardage. This is a real mismatch where the opponent and situation work strongly against Rutgers. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night. But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen. The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers. Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing.
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers. Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19. It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog. |
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11-27-21 | Notre Dame -19 v. Stanford | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
Stanford is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last six games. The Cardinal has lost their last three games by an average of 32 points to Utah, Oregon State and California. Notre Dame is better than those teams. The Irish's ground game has picked up as their offensive has gotten better. Notre Dame not only will have huge edges at the skill positions, but also in the trenches. Stanford ranks 126th in rushing and 127th in stopping the run. A key for the Irish is motivation. They are making the long trip West against what has become an extremely weak opponent. Notre Dame, though, still is in the playoff hunt. So style points matter. That means the Irish will be primed for a blowout. Notre Dame has covered its past six road games and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times as a road favorite. Stanford is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home contests. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M -6.5 v. LSU | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Injuries, inconsistency and lack of offense have doomed LSU this season. Until beating UL Monroe, a lower-tier Sun Belt Conference team, last week the Tigers were 1-5 in their last six games. LSU is averaging only 14.6 points in its last three SEC games. The Tigers' weak offense really misses star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Don't look for LSU to get well against stingy Texas A&M in departing coach Ed Orgeron's final home game. The Aggies are No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 14.9 points per game. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Texas A&M. The Aggies put up 41 points on Alabama. So their offense is capable. They'll do enough to cover this spread against a disinterested Tigers team playing the string out while waiting for a new coach. |
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11-20-21 | Appalachian State v. Troy +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Appalachian State is the class of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is a .500 team. But the Trojans have outscored their opponents by 26 points and this is their biggest game of the season. It is huge revenge for them after the Mountaineers defeated them by 37 points last season. That was the most lopsided loss Troy had last year. The Trojans have picked up their scoring averaging 27.6 points in their last five games. The Trojans rank 17th in defensive total yards and they have 36 sacks. The most points they've surrendered all season is 35. Appalachian State is down a tick at quarterback from previous seasons. Mountaineers QB Chase Brice has been picked off eight times. The Trojans have 13 takeaways, 11th-most in the country. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has lost just once in November during the last seven years. That lone defeat occurred against Baylor last Saturday. I'm expecting the Sooners to bounce back in a big way at home against Iowa State, which is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four road contests. The Sooners are in must-win mode if they hope to have any chance of making the College Football Playoffs. The 9-1 Sooners also need a victory to realistically keep alive their hopes of capturing a seventh straight Big 12 title. Iowa State is enduring a disappointing season. The Cyclones are 6-4 and off a 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 13-point road favorite.
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan v. Penn State +1.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The point spread may not reflect it, but Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions are home, too, and don't have the injuries Michigan does. Penn State's losses occurred to Illinois in overtime, to Iowa by three on the road when they were leading by two touchdowns before QB Sean Clifford was injured and a tough nine-point road loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have played a far more difficult schedule than the Wolverines. Penn State has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Michigan has failed to cover the past six times when going against above .500 opponents. Penn State got back on track smashing Maryland, 31-14, on the road last week. Clifford and his star wide receiver Jahan Dotson had big games. Michigan can't match that passing firepower. The Wolverines are dealing with a number of skill position injuries with running back Blake Corum, wide receivers A.J. Henning and Andrel Anthony all hurt along with tight end Erick All. Corum is their second leading rusher, while All is their second leading receiver. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has defeated Baylor seven straight times. The unbeaten Sooners also have won 23 consecutive November games. I don't see the Bears putting a halt to that streak. Baylor lost its momentum with a 30-28 loss to TCU last week. The Bears surrendered 570 of total offense to a Horned Frogs squad going with a backup QB and minus their best running back. It's scary how many points and yards the Sooners can put up on the Bears especially being idle last week giving offensive guru Lincoln Riley ample time to prepare and game plan. The Sooners' offense has taken off since Caleb Williams replaced disappointing Spencer Rattler at QB. The Sooners are averaging 46.2 points in their last five games. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-06-21 | USC v. Arizona State -8 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a lot wrong with USC these days. The Trojans have an interim head coach. A quarterback controversy. And they just lost their best player, Drake London. He was the top wide receiver in the country and the key to USC's passing attack. The Trojans were nip and tuck with winless Arizona last week before winning, 41-34. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country. Yet they scored 34 points on USC's defense. What does that tell you about USC? Arizona State is off a terrible performance, too, losing, 34-21, as a 16 1/2-point favorite to Washington State. Committing five turnovers was a killer for the Sun Devils. Jayden Daniels is a much better QB than he showed in that game. I'm looking for the Sun Devils to bounce back at home against the dysfunctional Trojans. ASU should be able to run more effectively against the Trojans than against the Cougars. USC QB Kedon Slovis is having a disappointing season. He's being pushed by freshman Jaxson Dart, who Arizona State knows well having recruited him. Both QB's are going to dearly miss the fantastic London. ASU ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in sacks with 22. So Slovis and Dart aren't going to have a clean pocket, especially with USC starting freshmen at the offensive tackle spots. |
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11-06-21 | Iowa -12 v. Northwestern | 17-12 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa was never even close to being the second-best team in the country even opening 6-0. But now that the Hawkeyes are off losses to Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined margin of 51-14, they are being underrated with this short point spread stepping this far down in class. The Hawkeyes committed a combined seven turnovers against the Badgers and Boilermakers. They had gone into those games plus 15 in turnover margin. Look for the well-coached Hawkeyes to get back on track against Northwestern, a team they match up much better against. Iowa has a very strong defense. Northwestern has a very weak offense. The Wildcats average fewer than 20 points a game. They rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points and 11th in scrimmage yards. The Wildcats were just blown out by Minnesota, 41-14. Iowa has a good running back in Tyler Goodson. He should be in line for a strong game as Northwestern ranks 126th in the nation in run defense. If the Hawkeyes establish a ground attack, which they didn't do against Wisconsin and Purdue, this would make things much easier for pocket passer Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes have been at their best beating and covering against bad teams going 21-6 ATS as a road favorite. |
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11-06-21 | Auburn +4.5 v. Texas A&M | 3-20 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas A&M is getting a lot of respect for having slain Alabama. I see the Aggies getting too much respect here. Auburn is 4-1 in its last five games with its only loss coming to Georgia during this span. The Tigers defeated Arkansas by two TD's two games ago. People forget that Texas A&M, victors over Alabama, lost to Arkansas, 20-10. Zach Calzada had the game of his life against Alabama. Truth be told, though, Calzada isn't nearly that good of a quarterback. Auburn is very strong in the trenches. The Tigers also have an experienced QB in Bo Nix, who doesn't commit turnovers. He has been picked off just twice this season. Compare this to Calzada, who has thrown an interception in each of his last six games. Auburn has covered the past four times it has played on the road against Texas A&M.
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack. Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan. The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15. Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.) But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games. Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games. This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Toledo | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is an attractive underdog here. The Eagles have the more experienced and accurate QB in Ben Bryant. Average four more points per game than Toledo and have a tremendous road spread record covering 24 of their last 33 away games for 73 percent. The Eagles are averaging nearly 33 points per game. Toledo has the superior defense. The Rockets only have five takeaways, however. Rockets freshman QB Dequan Finn is completing just 51 percent of his passes. Eastern Michigan is average defensively giving up 24.9 points a game. It has been difficult for a MAC team to beat the Eagles by double-digits. Eastern Michigan has lost by more than eight points only twice in its last 10 conference defeats. Toledo failed to cover the last two times it was favored. The Rockets lost, 22-20, at home to Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Oct. 9 and fell, 26-23 in overtime, to Central Michigan as a five-point road favorite on Oct. 16.
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10-30-21 | SMU +1 v. Houston | 37-44 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
The spot is ripe for SMU. The Mustangs haven't played in 10 days. They are rested and should be well prepared. Houston lost by 17 points to Texas Tech opening week and then reeled off six straight victories. None of the teams the Cougars beat, though, is as good as SMU. I don't see the Cougars being strong enough to step up here. They needed overtime to beat East Carolina, 31-24, last Saturday. That game lasted much longer than expected due to several weather delays. Cougars QB Clayton Tune is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is having a huge season with 29 TD passes and a 71.1 percent completion percentage. |
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10-30-21 | Louisiana Tech -4 v. Old Dominion | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 57 m | Show |
Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team. Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25. Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris. Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close. |
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10-29-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -20 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt. Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno. The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the unbeaten Aztecs, especially if getting more than a field goal, in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. There are no secrets here. These teams are going to be running - a lot. San Diego State has the superior run defense and the best running back in Greg Bell. The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the country in run defense. They are holding foes to only 16 points a game. The Falcons are favored because of home field and the Aztecs switching quarterbacks going to Lucas Johnson, who began his career at Georgia Tech. Johnson can only be an upgrade on Jordan Brookshire.
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10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota has picked up its game since a Week 4 upset loss to Bowling Green. Since that defeat the Gophers pulled their own upsets knocking off Purdue on the road and Nebraska with both victories coming by seven points. Tanner Morgan finally is showing something at quarterback for Minnesota. The Gophers' offensive line is opening holes for their running backs no matter who carries the ball and Minnesota's defense has allowed just 12.5 points in its last four games. Maryland's confidence is down after blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined 96 points. The Gophers hold a big coaching edge, too, with PJ Fleck versus Mike Locklsley. The Terrapins have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a road 'dog.
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10-23-21 | Eastern Michigan -3.5 v. Bowling Green | 55-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is 4-3 and needs this game if it wants to make a bowl game, which is a big deal for the Eagles. The Eagles are averaging a respectable 29.6 points a game. Bowling Green ranks 111th in run defense. The Falcons have gone downhill since upsetting Minnesota a month ago losing their last three games, all by 7 or more points to MAC foes Kent State, Akron and Northern Illinois. The Falcons failed to win a conference game last year. If you count just FBS schools, the Falcons have lost 17 of their last 19 home games. The Eagles are far from being a great team. But they are decent enough to cover this short road number against this sinking opponent. |
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10-21-21 | Tulane v. SMU -13.5 | Top | 26-55 | Win | 100 | 69 h 1 m | Show |
Tulane is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last four games. The Green Wave have lost their last two games by 23 points to East Carolina and by 18 to Houston. Now the Green Wave go on the road to face a motivated SMU team that wants to prove itself as the best team in the American Athletic Conference and a legitimate top-25 team. The Mustangs are ranked No. 21 in the currentThe Associated Press poll. Not only are the Mustangs home, but this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Tulane ranks among the bottom-eight in points allowed at 40.2 and yards giving up more than 475 per game. QB Tanner Mordecia has come through in a big way for the Mustangs. SMU ranks in the top-10 in scoring at 40.7 and in yards gained. The Green Wave are averaging 23.2 points in their last four games. SMU should be good for at least 40 points here. Tulane isn't going to be able to keep up.
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10-16-21 | Hawaii +14.5 v. Nevada | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
Hawaii has the right ingredients to hang with Nevada. I'm fully expecting starting QB Chevan Cordeiro to be behind center. Head coach Todd Graham expects that, too. But I'm fine if the Rainbow Warriors have to use backup QB Brayden Schager, who threw a pair of TD passes and no interceptions in Hawaii's upset win against Fresno State, 27-24. That was two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors were idle last week. Hawaii has some underrated running backs in Dae Dae Hunter and Dedrick Parson, who can take advantage of Nevada's less-than-stellar run defense. The Warriors also have pass defense to bother Carson Strong. Hawaii has come up with 16 takeaways, which was tied for third-most in the nation entering Friday. The Wolfpack will have to contend with Calvin Turner Jr., perhaps the best all-around and most dynamic player in the Mountain West Conference. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering the past five times.
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10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This isn't 2020 when San Jose State had a magical season winning all seven of their regular season games. The Spartans are way down this year because their offense has gone into the tank. QB Nick Starkel has missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup. Starkel hasn't played well. Spartans backup QB Nick Nash did not look good in losing to Colorado State, 32-14, last week. The Spartans rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points a game and are 113th in total yards. They have scored fewer than 18 points in four of their five games versus Division I teams. San Jose has yet to cover against any of the five Division I opponents they've played. San Diego State is 5-0, winning with a strong running game and solid defense. Greg Bell is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. The Spartans are minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Aztecs have 18 sacks and seven interceptions.
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Now that I don't have to lay more than four points, I'm going to get involved with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are the more well-rounded team and have more quality victories. They've defeated Marshall and own a blowout victory against Georgia State. Lafayette defeated South Alabama by two points and didn't look impressive in beating Nicholls State and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State has topped 500 yards in each of its last three games. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS with their lone cover occurring versus Ohio. Their offense is down from last season. They also have kicking problems. Their regular kicker is out for the year and their backup, Nate Snyder, missed two field goals and an extra point in their last game. The Mountaineers have revenge motivation, too, after losing, 24-21, last year. Prior to that game, the Mountaineers were 8-0 versus Lafayette.
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10-09-21 | LSU +3 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
Great job by Kentucky upsetting Florida last week. Mark Stoops has made the Wildcats respectable. But I don't see Kentucky taking out LSU, too, just a week later and coming right after the glow of its Florida victory. I understand the Tigers are way down from their national championship team of two seasons ago. We're still talking LSU, though, with its great athletes, talent and speed. LSU QB Max Johnson has the ability and arm to dent a Kentucky secondary that hasn't really been tested fully yet. The Wildcats don't have much of a pass rush either. I prefer Kentucky when in a 'dog role. Before upsetting Florida, the Wildcats had defeated South Carolina by six points and Tennessee Chattanooga by only five points as a 33-point home favorite.
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10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech | 32-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
Cincinnati exposed Notre Dame last week for what the Irish really are, a team whose luck ran out when they met a really good defense. Notre Dame meets another outstanding defense here in Virginia Tech. The Hokies give up the 10th-fewest points per game in the country. They held Sam Howell and North Carolina to 10 points. The Tar Heels are averaging 44.5 points in their other four games. The Irish can't dent a really strong defense because they lack a star quarterback, have a mediocre-at-best offensive line and no star wide receivers. Their best pass catcher is tight end is Michael Mayer and he's banged-up dealing with a groin injury. Virginia Tech also has the advantage of having had two weeks to rest and prepare. The Hokies were idle last week.
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10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020. Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter. The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times. It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories.
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10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Both Iowa and Maryland are 4-0. But there are reasons why Iowa is ranked fifth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Maryland is outside of the top 25. The Hawkeyes are far superior defensively. The Hawkeyes are surrendering just 11 points a game, third-best in the nation. Maryland has played a weak schedule. The Terrapins haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Iowa. Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games. Iowa has thrived in this role, a proven commodity with a 20-6 ATS mark the past 26 times as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes' last four road victories against Power 5 conference opponents all were by double-digits. Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards and completion percentage. But he's not as good as his brother, Tua. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with six interceptions. I would take their defense over Tagovailoa. Iowa is the better coached team and owns huge edges on both lines of scrimmage.
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09-25-21 | Tennessee +20 v. Florida | 14-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida played an outstanding game last week nearly upsetting Alabama as a two-touchdown 'dog losing, 31-29. That was a physical game and the Gators nearly tied it at 31-31 but couldn't convert on a 2-point run with 3:41 left. Florida had fought back from a 21-3 deficit. I don't know how much the Gators will have left for this matchup. Tennessee looks much more dangerous under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers are off to a 3-0 start while averaging 42.7 points. I'm fine with whoever the Volunteers play at quarterback whether it's Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker. Tennessee is averaging 223 yards rushing a game. I'm not sure the oddsmaker has fully caught up to Tennessee. The combination of that and Florida being in somewhat of a letdown spot following the Alabama game, puts me on the Volunteers taking nearly three touchdowns.
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09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
In Greg Schiano we trust. Schiano has turned around Rutgers making the Scarlet Knights respectable. Rutgers won three Big Ten games last season and nearly upset Michigan as an 11-point 'dog losing, 48-42, in triple overtime. Michigan is off to a fast start with three blowout victories against inferior competition. But Rutgers also is 3-0 with victories versus Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. Rutgers has forced eight turnovers and come up with 14 sacks. Scarlet Knights QB Noah Vedral isn't doing anything foolish. He's completed 71.6 percent of his throws with four TD passes and no interceptions. The Wolverines have a much bigger game on tap next week when they take on Wisconsin. That's a huge revenge game for Michigan, which lost by 38 points to the Badgers last year. The Scarlet Knights definitely can stay within three TD's of the Wolverines.
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09-25-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. Wisconsin | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
I don't think Jack Coan and Notre Dame are getting enough respect here. Note this matchup is at neutral site Soldier Field in Chicago, not in Madison, Wis. Coan has erased the doubts I had about him entering the season completing nearly 64 percent of his passes for 828 yards and 8 TD's. Kyren Williams gives Notre Dame the best running back. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz entered the program with a lot of hype. He had a monster game against Illinois in his first start - and then has gone downhill since then. He has yet to throw a TD this season. Penn State held Wisconsin to just 10 points. No way do I see Wisconsin being nearly a TD better than Notre Dame on a neutral field.
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09-24-21 | Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Liberty may be the best team you don't know. The Flames have covered their last 10 games and are led by QB Malik Willis, the Lamar Jackson of college football and likely high draft pick. The Flames are 3-0 this season, which isn't surprising since they returned nearly all of their starters from last season's 10-1 team that upset Virginia Tech on the road and defeated Coastal Carolina in a bowl game. Willis is a dynamic superstar, who has the highest passer rating in the country. He's accounted for 11 TD's and hasn't thrown an interception. Syracuse is 2-1 beating Ohio and FCS foe Albany. The Orangemen lost, 17-7, to Rugers, a lower-tier Big Ten team. Syracuse is 5-16 in its last 21 games and has yet to demonstrate much of a passing attack. Liberty is very strong defensively returning nine starters from a top-25 defense of a year ago. I see Liberty covering for the ninth straight time in a favorite's role.
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
A major takeaway from Marshall opening the season 2-0 is Marshall's first-year head coach Charles Huff will run up a score. He's done it twice already. The Thunder Herd poured it on against Navy, 49-7, and buried North Carolina Central, 44-10. Grant Wells has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Thunder Herd should roll again here. They have the offense and catch East Carolina off an excruciating defeat. The Pirates nearly upset South Carolina, but lost, 20-17, on a last-second field goal. The Pirates haven't been relevant since 2014. They are 16-43 the past six plus seasons. I find Holton Ahlers to be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in college football. His numbers don't translate to his hype. |
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09-18-21 | Georgia Southern +24 v. Arkansas | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
Can you say sandwich? That's what Arkansas finds itself in this week. Fresh off a 40-21 upset of Texas, the Razorbacks became ranked for the first time since 2016. They have a much bigger game on deck against unbeaten Texas A&M. So the spot is right for Georgia Southern to hang inside of this large number. The Eagles run a triple-option attack. That means tons of running plays, which eats clock. Arkansas has yet to get its passing attack in gear. That means the Razorbacks also will be staying on the ground a lot, too. The Eagles didn't look good against Florida Atlantic. But the Eagles also didn't have their starting QB, Justin Tomlin. He's back for this game. Georgia Southern also could get running back JD King back from injury. Georgia Southern is better than how it played against Florida Atlantic. The Eagles defeated Louisiana Tech, 38-3, in the New Orleans Bowl last season. They have covered each of the last six times they've met a foe with a winning record.
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09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is significantly downgrading Florida State after the 0-2 Seminoles lost to Notre Dame and Jacksonville State, an FCS program. OK, I get that. But Florida State lost each of those games on the final play and Jacksonville State isn't a bad team. The Seminoles may still have been down about their overtime loss to Notre Dame in their opener and were affected by that against Jacksonville State. Both of Florida State's losses came at home. So maybe it's best the Seminoles go on the road where their focus could be sharper especially in need of a victory. It's rare to see Wake Forest a favorite against Florida State. Nothing against Wake Forest, who are a solid team and well coached. But the Seminoles are the more athletic and talented team. I like both of Florida State's QB's, Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton. The Demon Deacons' 2-0 record should be looked at skeptically since it came against Norfolk State and Old Dominion.
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09-18-21 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show |
Notre Dame has been life and death to nip Florida State in overtime and hold off upset-minded Toledo. That has caused the linesmaker to underrated Notre Dame. The Irish are still an elite team, two levels higher than Purdue especially when at home. Jack Coan has answered the big question at quarterback. He's completed nearly 70 percent of his throws for more than 600 yards with six TD passes. The Irish are much better at the other positions than they have shown so far. If the Irish are vulnerable it's in stopping the run. Purdue, though, is a passing team. The Boilermakers don't run the ball well. Purdue is stepping way up in class after getting to play hapless Connecticut last week. The Boilermakers buried the Huskies, 49-0.
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09-18-21 | Boston College v. Temple +15 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 58 m | Show | |
Temple can hang here given the season-ending wrist injury to Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec. Boston College beat UMass, 45-28, last week behind senior QB Dennis Grosel, who is a big step down from Jurkovec, a pro prospect. Temple is better than UMass and will be playing its home opener here. Boston College is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Owls were hammered, 61-14, by improved Rutgers. But that score was misleading. Rutgers only outgained Tempe by 104 yards. Temple came back from that loss to down Akron, 45-24, as a 6 1/2-point road favorite.
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia. Peters is back for this game. The Illini are being underrated here because of a bad 42-14 loss to Virginia. I believe Illinois is better and tougher under new coach Bret Bielema. The Illini will prove it here. I'm not a fan of Maryland coach Mike Locksley. I especially want to go against Maryland as a road favorite in this point spread range. The Terrapins have covered only 27 percent of their last 26 away contests. The Terrapins are 2-0, but their last game was against FCS foe Howard, a 62-0 win. So their statistics are skewed. This also is Maryland's first road game. |
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09-11-21 | NC State v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 13 m | Show |
The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense. Mississippi State isn't in that class. The Bulldogs are way too prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes. Yes they have an exciting attack. But they're going to turn the ball over and commit dumb, costly mistakes. It's a typical Mike Leach team. The Bulldogs had to outscore Louisiana Tech by 18 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 35-34 opening week win as 20 1/2-point home favorites. That's what happens when you turn the ball over six times and commit 12 penalties as the Bulldogs did. That kind of sloppy performance certainly isn't going to cut it stepping way up in class against North Carolina State. It's telling that Mississippi State couldn't control the line of scrimmage against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop North Carolina State even if their offense cuts way back on the turnovers. |
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09-11-21 | UAB +24.5 v. Georgia | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 18 m | Show | |
I regard UAB as the best team in Conference USA and one of the more unsung teams in the nation. The Blazers catch Georgia at a good time. The Bulldogs are in letdown and sandwich mode after a highly-satisfying, hard-fought, 10-3, win against Clemson last week. Georgia hosts South Carolina next week in its opening SEC matchup. The Bulldogs also are dealing with COVID-19 issues. This may or may not have a bearing on team depth, but it's certainly not a plus for Georgia. UAB took care of business in its opener shutting out Jacksonville State, 31-0. The Blazers defense showed why it is highly regarded holding Jacksonville State to 154 yards of total offense. Tyler Johnson gives UAB a reliable QB and he's playing behind a very good offensive line. So I don't see the Blazers getting totally outclassed here like the point spread suggests.
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year. The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career. There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.
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09-04-21 | Baylor -14 v. Texas State | Top | 29-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital. Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers. Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards. The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
You might think this game should be a mismatch. After all, Northwestern went 7-2 and won a bowl game last season while Michigan State struggled going 2-5 with two games cancelled during Mel Tucker's first season. You would think wrong, though. Northwestern lost much of its talent from last year, including QB Peyton Ramsey, star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater and its cornerback and receiving corps. Perhaps no major conference team lost as many players through graduation as Northwestern. Michigan State, on the other hand, should be much improved. The Spartans are far more stable in Tucker's second year. Michigan State returns twice as many starters as Northwestern and has the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Northwestern's inexperienced secondary. Note, too, that one of Michigan State's victories last season was against Northwestern, 29-20. The Spartans also defeated the Wildcats, 31-10, at Northwestern in 2019. |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage. Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too. Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season. The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5 | Top | 31-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game. Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper. UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons. I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -8 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 129 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State has its worst defense of recent years especially in the secondary. Alabama has its most explosive offense ever, which is saying a lot. This combination is enough for the Crimson Tide to defeat the Buckeyes by double-digits and cover the spread. Yes, the Buckeyes have an explosive offense, too. I would take Justin Fields over Alabama QB Mac Jones. The Crimson Tide's defense doesn't have as many dominant players as in the past few years, but their defense still is more talented than Clemson's in the line and secondary. So they are going to get some stops against Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State slowing down Alabama at all. Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith were all Heisman Trophy finalists with Smith capturing the award. Smith caught 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 TD's. I've watched Alabama football since the days of Joe Namath being under center and I've never seen a Crimson Tide wide receiver have the season Smith had. Oh, yes, Alabama also has the best offensive line in college football even without injured stud center Landon Dickerson. This group is in the discussion for being the greatest O-line in Alabama history. Ohio State ranked just 56th in fewest yards per play and that was playing an easier schedule than Alabama. Just last year the Buckeyes ranked first in that category showing what a drop their defense has experienced this season.
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12-31-20 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Army | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games. |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada +2.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a bad matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave of New Orleans are making a long journey into cold weather where the temperature is going to be in the 20's and the winds will be flapping at 15-25 mph. Nevada is well familiar with the special blue turf and field conditions in Boise State's home stadium, site of the Potato Bowl. The Wolf Pack have a monster passing edge with Carson Strong, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. He led the conference in completions, completion percentage, TD's and passing yards. Strong has two all-conference receiving targets in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner. The Wolf Pack also have all-conference placekicker Brandon Talton. Tulane could be down three starting defensive linemen with two of its starters definitely ruled out. The Green Wave struggled against strong passing opponents. Central Florida put up 51 points on Tulane while Houston scored 49 points on the Green Wave. The Green Wave are run-oriented, but that's Nevada's defensive strength. Tulane lost its up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Will Hall. He left to become head coach at Southern Mississippi. Tulane's defensive coordinator was fired so the Green Wave are without both of their coordinators.
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12-19-20 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +7 | 46-33 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
Oregon State beat Arizona State at home last season and the Beavers can do it again this season even if their star running back, Jermar Jefferson, can't play because of an ankle injury. It's an added plus if Jefferson can play after suffering the injury last Saturday. The Beavers and UCLA were the only two Pac-12 schools not to have their schedule and routine thrown out of whack because of COVID-19. Oregon State has played six games going 2-4. Note that all but one of those defeats came by six points or fewer. Arizona State is 1-2. The Sun Devils are off a monster win against in-state and Pac-12 rival Arizona, 70-7, last week. That victory left the Sun Devils feeling very smug and satisfied. It puts them in a potential letdown spot. Oregon State has been competitive all season. The Beavers are well-coached by Jonathan Smith. They have covered four of their last five games.
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12-18-20 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -104 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
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12-12-20 | Louisiana Tech +21.5 v. TCU | 10-52 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
You can't blame TCU if it doesn't get excited about this matchup. The Horned Frogs are off a huge 29-22 home win against then 15th-ranked Oklahoma State last Saturday. This is their only nonconference matchup of the season. Louisiana Tech is the much fresher team. The Bulldogs have played just once since November and that was last Friday when they defeated North Texas. 42-31, on the road. The Bulldogs can score averaging just under 32 points per game. They are 27-11 ATS the past 38 times as a road 'dog. TCU has not shined as home chalk going 5-21 ATS the last 26 times as a home favorite.
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12-12-20 | Navy v. Army -7 | 0-15 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
Many key factors point to Army being the right side, including getting to host this annual rivalry. It's the first time since 1943 the teams aren't facing each other at a neutral site. Along with home field advantage, Army is in much better current form than Navy. The Black Knights are 5-1 in their last six games. Navy has dropped four in a row. These teams are all about running the football. Army exceeds, Navy doesn't. The Black Knights are the No. 3 rushing team in the country. They are No. 1 in rushing TD's with 31.Navy is 109th in run defense. Army ranks 23rd in run defense. The Black Knights have permitted only five rushing TD's. Navy still hasn't settled on a quarterback. The Midshipmen have produced just 13 points in their last two games against Memphis and Tulsa.
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12-12-20 | Utah +1 v. Colorado | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Colorado is a surprising 4-0. But I don't expect to see the Buffaloes remaining unbeaten after this game. Their record is impressive, but their play hasn't been that stellar. Colorado also has caught some lucky breaks. UCLA committed four turnovers against Colorado. Arizona was going with a freshman backup QB making his first start when it played the Buffaloes. Yet Colorado still needed a goal line stand to help hold off the Wildcats. San Diego State was riddled with injuries and had to play at Colorado on short notice and Stanford outscored the Buffaloes in the second half in losing by three points. I'm not impressed with Colorado QB Sam Noyer, who has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Utes are better in the trenches, especially their run defense which holds foes to 3.6 yards per rush. Ty Jordan is one of the better freshmen running backs in the country and veteran transfer QB Jake Bentley has a strong arm. He can take advantage of Colorado's inconsistent defense. |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State +15.5 v. Penn State | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Don't sleep on Michigan State in this Big Ten rivalry matchup. The Spartans were smashed, 52-12, by Ohio State last week. The Spartans weren't going to win that game even if their QB, Rocky Lombardi, didn't get knocked out. But there is an overcorrection in the line for this game. Penn State isn't very good this season especially on offense. Michigan State still is worthy of respect. Let's not forget the Spartans own a blowout win against Michigan and a victory versus Big 10 West champion Northwestern. I'm fine if Payton Thorne is Michigan State's QB if Lombardi can't go. The Nittany Lions are 2-5. Their victories have come against Michigan and Rutgers. Penn State is averaging a meager 23 points in their last six games. Sean Clifford has endured a terrible season and the Nittany Lions have been without RB Noah Cain and TE Pat Freiermuth. The weapons haven't been there. Penn State has given up 23 sacks and turned the ball over 15 times in its seven games. Michigan State has seven sacks in its last two games.
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -14 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
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12-05-20 | Tulsa v. Navy +12.5 | 19-6 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
Tulsa struggles to win by margins with just one victory coming by more than eight points. I can see home 'dog Navy hanging in especially given the weather conditions in Annapolis. Rain and heavy winds, which could turn into gusts, have caused this total to be lowered. Points are more at a premium now. The bad weather is much better for Navy, too. The Midshipmen are heavily ground-oriented while Tulsa is a passing team operating from the spread. Navy held high-powered Memphis to 10 points in its last game. Memphis averages 33 points on the season. Tulsa is 0-5 lifetime against Navy in AAC league play. Navy beat the Golden Hurricane, 45-17, last season. Navy does have Army on deck. That's one of college football's biggest rivalries. Still, Navy has plenty of incentive for this game. It's Senior Day with 26 Navy seniors playing in their final home game. The Midshipmen have won an extraordinary 17 straight games on their Senior Day.
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents. |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -10.5 | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
I want to fade a punchless Texas Tech offense against Oklahoma State, which is in a foul mood after getting blown out by rival Oklahoma last week. The Cowboys still harbor Big 12 title hopes, have many huge defensive edges and are much superior in the skill positions. The Red Raiders have lost and failed to cover in all three of their road games, all versus Big 12 foes and all by double-digits. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Oklahoma State gives up nearly 18 fewer points per game than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have only reached 400 yards once in their last five games. They aren't going to be able to hang close to Oklahoma State.
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11-28-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -7 | 41-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Both teams are 3-0. But Buffalo is the elite team of the Mid-American Conference. The Bulls are 9-1 going back to last season. Their lone loss? It came to Kent State on the road last season and it came in shocking fashion with the Bulls blowing a 21-point lead with eight minutes to play. The Golden Flashes came up with a recovered onside kick and blocked punt to set up that improbable victory. The well-coached Bulls haven't forgotten. Buffalo has excellent skill position talent in QB Kyle Van Treese and running back James Patterson, who is coming off a 301-yard rushing, 4-TD wipeout of Bowling Green. The Bulls won that game, 42-17, but didn't manage to cover the large point spread. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games, however. Buffalo also has a strong defense holding foes to 19 points per game, which rates 15th in the nation. Kent has been a nice story this season, but the unbeaten Golden Flashes have played an easy schedule. This includes wins against the two worst MAC teams, Bowling Green and Akron. Buffalo is the stronger team and has monster revenge. |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
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11-21-20 | Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
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11-20-20 | Syracuse +20 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
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11-14-20 | Arkansas +18 v. Florida | 35-63 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 15 m | Show | |
Florida is vulnerable this week. The Gators are coming off a huge victory against Georgia and taking on a much improved and opportunistic Arkansas squad. The Gators halted a three-game losing streak to Georgia with a 44-28 victory last week. It's going to be difficult for Florida to get up for the Razorbacks. The well-coached Razorbacks have been underdogs in each of their six games this season. They have covered every time, including posting three straight-up wins. Florida QB Kyle Trask is having a huge season. Arkansas, though, has a tremendous pass defense. Only once have the Razorbacks yielded 300 passing yards. Arkansas has picked off 12 passes and is plus 8 in turnover margin. Florida has turned the ball over at least once every game. Feleipe Franks was Florida's QB before coming to Arkansas. Franks has been solid, connecting on 67 percent of his throws with 14 TD's. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. |
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11-14-20 | Baylor +1 v. Texas Tech | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
Baylor has found a team it can beat - Texas Tech. The Bears have the much superior defense and Texas Tech is the one team they can run on. The Red Raiders are surrendering 40.1 points per game and rank 107th in yards allowed per game. Their defense is the worst in the Big 12. The Bears rank third in the Big 12 in pass defense. Texas Tech hasn't had a 300-yard passing game in its last five games. The Red Raiders have scored 21 or fewer points in three of their last five games.
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11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14 | Top | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 106 h 5 m | Show |
This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
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11-14-20 | Penn State -3 v. Nebraska | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
Something has to give between these two winless and disappointing Big Ten teams. Penn State hasn't had a losing season since 2004. The Nittany Lions have suffered two of their losses to much-improved Indiana and powerful Ohio State. They are more talented than Nebraska. Sean Clifford is one of the better QB's in the Big 10 and Penn State's run defense and pass rush have been there. The team has been hurt by turnovers. Nebraska has managed only 30 points in its losses to Ohio State and Northwestern. QB Adrian Martinez keeps sadly regressing. The Cornhuskers lack a downfield passing game and their running attack isn't strong enough to offset that. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 (18 percent) Big Ten games and are 6-18-2 ATS in their past 26 home games.
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
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11-11-20 | Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here. |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits. |
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11-07-20 | Rutgers +39 v. Ohio State | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
The combination of Rutugers' improvement under Greg Schiano and an Ohio State letdown puts me on the Scarlet Knights getting this many points. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State, 38-27, opening week and hung tough in a 37-21 loss to then No. 17 ranked Indiana in its two games. The Knights' win against the Spartans is made even more impressive after Michigan State defeated Michigan last Saturday. The Buckeyes could be in letdown mode after defeating then 18th-ranked Penn State, 38-25, last week. Ohio State loses some of its home field advantage as just 1,600 people will be allowed into 100,000-seat Ohio Stadium. Even if Ohio State builds up a huge early lead there may be a reluctance to humiliate Schiano, who was the Buckeyes' associate head coach and defensive coordinator from 2016-18.
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
I like the job Brent Brennan has done and is doing at San Jose State. The Spartans aren't a joke anymore. But they aren't good enough to stay within double-digits on the road against San Diego State. This is the 2-0 Spartans' first road game. They face the premier defense in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State also is 2-0 beating UNLV and Utah State by a combined margin of 72-13. The Aztecs held those two foes to a combined 6.5 points and 200 total yards of offense. I don't see San Jose State QB Nick Starkel - who is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of college football with his journeyman background - getting the better of the Aztecs defense. Starkel has played at Arkansas, Texas A&M and Texas. The Spartans can't match the Aztecs on defense. The Aztecs have an excellent running back, Greg Bell, and a balanced offense. |
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11-04-20 | Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
Buffalo is favored to capture the Mid-American Conference, which kicks off their abbreviated season Wednesday. The Bulls' opponent is Northern Illinois, which was picked last in both the MAC Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Closely examining this matchup, it's apparent oddsmakers opened this line too short. Buffalo hasn't lost in more than a year. The Bulls' 2019 season culminated with a 31-9 blowout victory against Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. The Bulls held five of their last six foes to three touchdowns or fewer. The Bulls held opponents to less than three yards per run last season. Northern Illinois lacks an explosive offense and has a weak defense. The Huskies are extremely young, too, with 67 percent of their roster being freshmen. Buffalo has multiple good running backs and a strong offensive line. The Bears have the experience and talent gap to easily cover this margin.
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10-30-20 | Minnesota -19 v. Maryland | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -112 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
So much for any Maryland improvement this year. The Terps were crushed 43-3 in their opening game last Saturday. No, it wasn't by any of the Big Ten powers. That 40-point loss came to Northwestern! Minnesota is a better team than the Wildcats. Maryland surrendered 325 yards rushing to Northwestern. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is superior to any of the Wildcat running backs. The Gophers have a huge edge in the passing game with QB Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who could be the best wide receiver in the Big Ten. The Gophers were hoping to defeat Michigan in their opener last Saturday. Didn't happen because the Wolverines had too many edges in the trenches. That won't be the case for the Gophers against this foe. Minnesota should control the line of scrimmage and its skill people are dangerous enough to make this game more of a blowout than the oddsmaker envisions. The Terps need their offense to at least be competitive. It wasn't against Northwestern generating just an early field goal. Taulia Tagovailoa didn't resemble his brother Tua at all. He was a major disappointment. He ended up getting yanked after throwing three interceptions. I have zero confidence that Maryland coach Mike Locksley can fix things, especially in such a short period of a time. |
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10-24-20 | Penn State v. Indiana +6.5 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Don't be shocked if Indiana pulls off the outright upset with a straight-up victory. Penn State lost many key players and Indiana returns a lot. The Nittany Lions are down their best player on offense and top defensive player. Running back Journey Brown is likely out for the season with a medical condition, while star linebacker MIcah Parson opted out of the season. The Hoosiers turned the corner last year going 8-5, their best record in 27 years. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. is as talented as Penn State QB Sean Clifford. The Hoosiers have outstanding skill position talent with running back Steve Scott, wideout Whop Philyor and tight end Peyton Hendershot. Indiana also returns eight defensive starts, including leading tackler LB Micah McFadden. Penn State defeated Indiana, 34-27, at home last year. Penix missed that game with an injury.
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
Louisiana Lafayette is 0-5 ATS the past five times it has been favored. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Alabama-Birmingham has the better rushing attack with Spencer Brown, the superior defense and is home. UAB has covered 72 percent of its past 26 home games. The Ragin' Cajuns have an up-tempo attack. They play fast and can run the ball well, too. But I like the Blazers ability to maintain ball-control and win the time of possession battle pounding away with Brown. The Blazers have rushed for more than 200 yards in three of their five games, while going 4-1. Brown has run for 472 yards with six TD's. UAB's offensive line, which has four returning starters, has permitted only three sacks. Lafayette surrendered 212 rushing yards in a 30-27 upset loss to Coastal Carolina in its last game. |
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10-17-20 | UMass v. Georgia Southern -31 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
UMass probably was doing college football a favor by electing to cancel its season. The Minutemen would not be missed. They are terrible. However, UMass decided to opt back in. That was just three weeks ago. You can imagine how little preparation time the Minutemen have. This game wasn't even scheduled until Oct. 8. Georgia Southern had a hole in its schedule because coronavirus forced postponement of their original opponent, far-stronger Appalachian State. So Georgia Southern won't lose a beat. The Eagles already have played three games. UMass barely has a depth chart. The Minutemen are likely to go with Mike Fallon at QB. He's thrown for 40 years during his four years with the program. Georgia Southern should bury UMass with its triple-option attack. The Eagles are the fourth-highest rushing team in the country. UMass played Army last season. That was the one foe that also ran a triple-option offense. Army buried the Minutemen, 63-7.
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10-17-20 | Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions. |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover.. |
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10-10-20 | Charlotte v. North Texas +3 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
North Texas is averaging 41 points a game. The Mean Green has scored 31 or more points in each of their three games. However, the Mean Green are surrendering 45.7 points. Their defense should look much better this week getting back linebacker Tyreke Davis and facing a weak Charlotte offense that averages just 18.5 points per game. I expect North Texas' offense to continue humming if not being even better with the decision to start Austin Aune at quarterback. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 loss to Southern Mississippi last week. If North Texas would have played a clean game it likely would have won. But the Mean Green lost three fumbles. I see them playing better this week. They have a far superior offense and their defense draws a weak offense.
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10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic. |
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10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
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10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -6.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
Much is being made of Georgia's up-in-the-air QB situation. The Bulldogs won't suffer there, though. They have plenty of talent. There needs to be some focus about the trenches and that's where the Bulldogs will whip the Tigers. Auburn took some big hits on its defensive lines and has five new offensive linemen. So I prefer Georgia's offense and pedigree. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the last 15 in this series, including the past three and six of the last seven. They've had 10 victories by seven or more points. Georgia also has a history of fast starts under Kirby Smart opening 5-0 each of the last three years with all but two of those victories coming by 14 or more points.
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
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09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up.
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09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again.
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09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +3 | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football. |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
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