Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4 | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season. Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career. Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions. Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here. |
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12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit. Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion. Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots. So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten. Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season? I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS. The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10. Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10. The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting. Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded. |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -7 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 31 m | Show | |
These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game. Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs. Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end. |
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12-16-23 | California v. Texas Tech -3 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
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11-25-23 | West Virginia -10.5 v. Baylor | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
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11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +1.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results. |
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11-11-23 | Texas -10.5 v. TCU | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. |
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11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Fresno State | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm far from convinced Fresno State is better than Boise State. The Bulldogs have been extremely lucky while Boise State has been extremely unfortunate.
The Broncos are 4-4, but three of those losses were by a combined six points for an average loss of two points. The only time Boise State has been completely out of a game was its opener against No. 5 ranked unbeaten Washington. Fresno State is 7-1 with four of those victories occurring by a single score. Bulldogs QB Mikey Keene doesn't look completely healthy either. He finished last week's game against UNLV hobbling. The Rebels are not strong defensively. Yet they held the Bulldogs to 312 total yards. Boise State showed how far it has come along when it whipped Wyoming, 32-7, last week. Wyoming dealt Fresno State its only loss, 24-19, a month ago. The Broncos have historically been very strong as an underdog covering 65 percent of the time in that role during the past 52 instances. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama -3 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -2.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas is coming off one of its biggest football victories in school history having upset Oklahoma at home last Saturday. It was the Jayhawks' first home win against a Top 10 team since 1984. The fans went crazy storming the field. The victory also made the Jayhawks' bowl eligible, which is a big deal for them. |
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11-04-23 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +19 | 35-16 | Push | 0 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. That's the upper tier of the Big Ten. Heading up the next tier is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are having their best start in 11 years going 6-2, already bowl-eligible. They can stay within this number of Ohio State if not giving the Buckeyes a downright scare. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. |
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10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
A decline in recruiting and coaching is taking a toll on Boise State. The Broncos are overvalued because of their past reputation. This is such a case. |
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10-21-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -3.5 | 48-34 | Loss | -104 | 40 h 56 m | Show | |
If Houston didn't hit on a Hail Mary on the final play last week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers may have been a heavier favorite than they are now. That 41-39 loss to Houston halted the Mountaineers' four-game win and covering streak. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. |
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10-21-23 | Air Force v. Navy +10.5 | 17-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
It's a simple rule when two service academies play one another, think Under and underdog, especially when the number is at double-digits like it is here. |
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10-21-23 | Central Florida +17.5 v. Oklahoma | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma may not be that sharp coming out of its bye having defeated arch-rival Texas in its previous game, 34-30, on a touchdown in the final minute. The Sooners still might be celebrating. UCF also is coming off a bye. The extra time allowed dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee to get healthy after missing most of the last four games. He makes a difference for UCF. The Knights are familiar with Sooners' star QB Dillon Gabriel, who played for UCF from 2019-21. The Knights actually average more yards per game than Oklahoma. |
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10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Schedule matters. So does quarterback injuries. Factor these elements in and Western Kentucky is worthy of a play. |
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10-14-23 | San Diego State -5.5 v. Hawaii | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
Having had their last four games against Air Force, Boise State, Oregon State and UCLA, the San Diego State Aztecs are stepping way down in class. Hawaii was picked to finish 10th out of 12 teams in the Mountain West Conference in the preseason media poll and so far the Rainbow Warriors have lived up to those low projections. They have played one Mountain West game and were blown out, 44-20, by UNLV. San Diego State has one of the top tight ends in the Mountain West, Mark Redman, and one of the best dual kickers in the country, Jack Browning. The Aztecs hold major edges against the Rainbow Warriors at tight end, special teams and in running the ball. According to the ESPN Special Teams Efficiency metric, San Diego State fields the 19th-best special teams while Hawaii ranks 124th. San Diego State has a history of defensive improvement as the season goes on. Hawaii ranks last in the country in rushing. That puts a lot of pressure on Rainbow Warriors QB Brayden Schager and he's turnover-prone with seven interceptions. The Aztecs are far from explosive. But they are facing a defense that has only come up with one takeaway, gives up nearly 35 points per game and ranks 108th in rush defense. San Diego State has defeated Hawaii during each of the past three seasons.
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10-14-23 | UCLA +3.5 v. Oregon State | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
I trust UCLA's defense to keep them in this game if not prove instrumental in the Bruins upsetting Oregon State. UCLA is surrendering just 12.2 points a game. Defensive end Laiatu Latu, perhaps the premier pass rusher in the country, and linebacker Darius Muasau have a combined nine of the Bruins' 18 sacks. UCLA has recorded 44 tackles for a loss. This is in just five games, too. Oregon State has permitted 30 tackles for a loss. The Bruins rank No. 3 against the run. They can bottle up Oregon State's two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, forcing DJ Uiagalelei to beat them. I don't believe Uiagalelei is a good enough quarterback to do that.
Oregon State just put up 52 points on California. That might have caused some line inflation here because I believe UCLA is the better team. |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I want Kansas State going for me following a 29-21 road loss to Oklahoma State as an 11 1/2-point favorite last week. Will Howard had his worst game throwing three interceptions against the Cowboys. He's much better than that, a grade above Texas Tech backup QB Behren Morton. The Red Raiders rank 94th in pass defense. I'm looking for a strong comeback performance from Howard. |
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10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9.5 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 40 m | Show | |
Both teams are strong defensively. But Iowa doesn't have enough offense to stay within double-digits of Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were 132nd in yards per game at 249.2 and now have to go with backup QB Deacon Hill after starting QB Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Hill couldn't win the starting job at Wisconsin before transferring to Iowa. He's a step down from the mediocre McNamara. Iowa has the third-worst passing attack in the country. |
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10-07-23 | South Alabama v. UL-Monroe +10.5 | 55-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -113 | 48 h 20 m | Show | |
Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season. |
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10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty -19 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game. |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. |
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09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that. Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach. I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season. |
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09-23-23 | Iowa +14.5 v. Penn State | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread. Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin. Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season. No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite. But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas. I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner. Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech. The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings. |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State. I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground. Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season. Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010. It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play. Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect. The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season. Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators. Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag. Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense. |
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09-16-23 | Western Kentucky +30 v. Ohio State | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold so far on Ohio State. I find the Buckeye overpriced against a Western Kentucky team that is very potent on offense with a very good quarterback. Throw in a look-ahead sport for Ohio State with its marquee matchup against Notre Dame up next and I'll take this many points with the Hilltoppers. Who has Ohio State played? Nobody really. The Buckeyes are 2-0 with wins against Indiana, a lower tier Big Ten team, and Youngstown State. Ohio State didn't cover in either game. Kyle McCord has emerged as Ohio State's starting QB, but he's unproven. The Buckeyes' running game ranks 88th. Austin Reed is anything but unproven. He led the nation in passing yards for Western Kentucky with 4,744 last season. He had a 40-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and scored another eight TD's rushing. The Hilltoppers are averaging 46.5 points this year in rolling past South Florida and Houston Christian.
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09-16-23 | Minnesota v. North Carolina -7.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
Athan Kaliakmanis follows Tanner Morgan in a long line of stiff Minnesota quarterbacks. He can't trade points against college superstar Drake Maye.
North Carolina's defense may be better than expected after limiting South Carolina to minus two yards rushing while sacking Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler nine times two weeks ago in its opener. Never has Minnesota defeated a top Top 25 team on the road under P.J. Fleck, who is in his seventh season. The Tar Heels rank 20th in the country. Maye will take advantage of Minnesota's inexperienced linebackers and the Gophers' weak schedule. |
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09-09-23 | Temple +8.5 v. Rutgers | 7-36 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Rutgers beat a horrible, rudderless Northwestern team, 24-7, last week. Apparently the oddsmaker thinks that's a big deal judging by how many points the Scarlet Knights are favored by here. Let's not forget Rutgers losing eight of its last nine games last year, including getting blown out by Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. Temple could surprise in the AAC with 16 returning starters. The Owls have one of the conference's better QB's in E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. The teams met last season. Rutgers was outgained by 58 yards, but managed to slip past the Owls, 16-14. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS off a double-digit point spread cover. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Washington State | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a huge revenge spot for Wisconsin. The Badgers were stunned at home by Washington State last year, 17-14. That also was during the second week of the season. The Badgers, though, should have won. They outgained the Cougars by 148 yards and had a 38:02 to 21:58 advantage in time of possession. However, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals. Don't look for the Badgers to be that sloppy again. They are focused, motivated and have upgraded their coaching going from conservative and stale Paul Chryst to Luke Fickell. Wisconsin also improved greatly at quarterback going from disappointing Graham Mertz to SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai, who threw 72 touchdown passes for the Mustangs in two seasons. Cameron Ward had a huge game for Washington State leading the Cougars to a 50-24 win against Colorado State. The Cougars couldn't get a ground attack going, though, They ran the ball 37 times against the Rams and could average 2.4 yards per carry. Unlike Washington State, the Badgers are balanced. They have one of the running back tandems in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl. This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day. Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season. Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up. So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season. South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense. The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. |
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State +10.5 | 50-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Double-digit home 'dog with revenge is one reason I like Colorado State. Another is the coach. It took two years for Jay Norvell to build up Nevada. The Rams went 3-9 in Norvell's first season last year. Expect big improvement this season. Colorado State's defense already is solid. The offense is bolstered having a year in Norvell's system and with nine key transfers. Washington State may lack focus traveling and hearing about the breakup of the Pac-12 and where its own football future is. The Cougars also have a vulnerable offensive line that Colorado State can stay competitive against. |
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09-01-23 | Miami-OH +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 266 h 14 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game. The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era. Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent. Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season. Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent. So look for a close game here. |
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08-26-23 | San Jose State +31 v. USC | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show | |
Yes, Caleb Williams is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. But USC has a suspect defense that permitted nearly 28 points a game last season. San Jose State can produce points against this caliber of defense. The well-coached Spartans have the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference in Chevan Cordeiro. He's one of nine returning offensive starters for San Jose State. Cordeiro accounted for 32 TD's last season and threw for 3,251 yards. The Spartans are capable of getting stops against Williams. They have size at cornerback and an excellent safety in Tre Jenkins. The Williams' Heisman hype has made this point spread too lopsided. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt -17 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 55 m | Show |
Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home. The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense. After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click. Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 118 h 56 m | Show |
Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time. TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs? Yes, they are. Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs. The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage. Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game. The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here. |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference. Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player. Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart. East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +4 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation. Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. |
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12-17-22 | Florida +8.5 v. Oregon State | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
OK, no Anthony Richardson for Florida. But still too much respect is being given to Oregon State in this Las Vegas Bowl matchup. Florida is SEC. The Gators are 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Their only loss by more than 10 points came to Georgia. Oregon State is Pac-12 and not even prime Pac-12 like USC, UCLA, Utah and Oregon. The Beavers don't have the athletes Florida has. Jack Miller III is set to make his first college start replacing Richardson, who opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Miller was CJ Stroud's backup at Ohio State before transferring. The Beavers rank 75th in pass defense. Miller can rely on a 16th-ranked ground attack, although dual threat Richardson was responsible for some of the Gators' impressive rushing figures. Oregon State is going with its own backup quarterback as a starter. Ben Gulbranson replaced injured Chance Nolan at the start of October. The Beavers rank 103rd in passing. They count on freshman running back Damien Martinez. Oregon State won its big game with a 38-34 come-from-behind win against Oregon on Nov. 26. That victory, more than this minor bowl game, is the Beavers' season highlight. Both teams had the opportunity to play Pac-12 power Utah. The Gators upset the Utes, 29-26, at home while Utah buried Oregon State, 42-16, at home. |
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12-16-22 | Troy +1.5 v. UTSA | Top | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA. The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla. Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt. The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games. The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
When is playing in the Big Ten title game a letdown? The answer is when you're Michigan and you just defeated previously undefeated Ohio State in Columbus last week, 45-23. Beating the Buckeyes is the highlight of the Wolverines' season. It's going to be difficult for Michigan to turn around a week later and cover this large of a number against a feisty Purdue team that has nothing to lose. Purdue has a winning record in 13 games the past five years taking on ranked foes. The Boilermakers catch a huge break that the Wolverines will be without their star running back Blake Corum, who is out with a knee injury. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. |
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11-26-22 | Nevada +12.5 v. UNLV | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
UNLV's season began highly promising with the Rebels going 4-1. But the Rebels won't be going bowling having lost their past six games, including their last one as an 11-point road favorite against Hawaii. Nevada-Reno blew out the Rebels, 51-20, in last year's annual rivalry game at home. This one is at UNLV. The Wolf Pack have gone through a rebuilding season. They aren't good. But this has been an underdog series with the 'dog winning six of the last nine times straight-up. Nevada always gets up for this game more than the Rebels. UNLV may win based on a superior ground attack, but Nevada will be giving an all-out effort and should stay within double-digits. The Rebels just aren't strong enough to lay this high of a number. |
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11-26-22 | Auburn +22.5 v. Alabama | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a monster rivalry game. The question is can Auburn can hang within three touchdowns of the Crimson Tide? Before this month, I would have said no. Now I say yes seeing how the Tigers have performed under interim coach Carnell Williams. Williams starred at Auburn before going on to the NFL playing for the Buccaneers. He has reignited a Tigers program that was dead earlier this season. Auburn is 3-0 ATS since Williams took over losing to Mississippi State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog, edging Texas A&M and rolling past Western Kentucky. I trust the Tigers to play hard again for Williams especially in this matchup. Great expectations were expected of Alabama this season, but the Crimson Tide have been overrated with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season. The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series. Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. |
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11-19-22 | UNLV v. Hawaii +11.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
UNLV isn't playing as well as it did in September and doesn't deserve to be this high of a road favorite against Hawaii. The Rebels have lost four games in a row. They are 1-4 on the road this season. Going to Hawaii is a unique trip because it involves a long flight and a two-hour time zone difference, not to mention a completely different atmosphere. Hawaii has covered five of its last six games. Only once during their last seven games have the Rainbow Warriors been beaten by more than seven points. They are stepping down in class, too, having faced Utah State, Fresno State and Wyoming in their past three games. |
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11-19-22 | UAB +15 v. LSU | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham has the right ingredients to spring a major upset here. The Blazers have a good defense, a strong ground attack led by talented DeWayne McBride and catch LSU in a letdown and look-ahead spot. UAB gives up 21.3 points and ranks 29th in total defense with the 15th-best pass defense. Western Kentucky, which ranks fourth in passing yards, could manage just 128 yards through the air at home against the Blazers. Only five teams average more running yards per game than UAB. McBride averages nearly seven yards a carry. The Blazers can control the clock by successfully running the ball. LSU has already clinched its ticket to the SEC championship game against Georgia. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas. The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas. Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground. |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show | |
Great job this season by Jim Mora getting Connecticut up to six wins, which makes the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time in seven years. The Huskies reached this point by upsetting previously 19th-ranked Liberty, 36-33, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs this past Saturday. Connecticut isn't nearly talented enough to cover spreads if it's not playing at a high level. The Huskies could have trouble doing that in an obvious letdown spot. But it's not just the letdown factor. The Huskies are going to have plenty of problems with Army's triple-option attack. The Black Knights are No. 2 in the country in rushing averaging nearly 300 yards on the ground per game. Connecticut is 73rd in run defense, but even its below average run defense statistics are skewed because of playing passing teams early in the season. The Huskies don't have the offense to cover for a bad defense. They have failed to break the 21-point barrier in seven of their 11 games. They rank 125th in total yards and 112th in scoring. Army blasted the Huskies, 52-21, last season. Sure the Huskies are much improved, but given the spot I don't see them staying within single digits. |
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11-19-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Florida State -23.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Florida State is peaking at the right time. The Seminoles have won their last three games - against Syracuse, Miami and Georgia Tech - by an average score of 41-7. Don't expect Louisiana Lafayette to fare any better. This isn't the Ragin' Cajuns of past years unders Billy Napier, who is at Florida now. Lafayette is coming off a home win against Georgia Southern and finishes back in the Sun Belt Conference against Texas State. If the Ragin Cajuns beat 3-7 Texas State they would become bowl eligible. So this non-conference game doesn't mean much. Lafayette has suffered three road defeats. The last time they were on the road, the Ragin' Cajuns permitted 39 points to Southern Mississippi in a 15-point loss. That was the most points Southern Mississippi has scored all season against a Division I opponent. That does bode well for Lafayette against the Seminoles' high-caliber offense. |
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11-12-22 | TCU +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Texas Christian is ranked fourth in the country in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Texas is ranked 18th. Yet the Longhorns are solid favorites. Usually it's the oddsmaker who has the correct power rankings, not the Top 25 voters. This time, though, it's the Top 25 poll that is accurate about these teams. TCU is the better team. The Horned Frogs are 9-0, including 6-0 in the Big 12. They just defeated Texas Tech by 10 points. Texas is 6-3 with two of its defeats coming to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams that TCU defeated. Texas lacks TCU's consistency and polish. The Horned Frogs have already beaten four ranked opponents. Only Tennessee has knocked off more with five. The Horned Frogs have dominated the Longhorns, too, going 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS against them since becoming a Big 12 member 10 years ago. They are 4-1 versus the Longhorns in Austin. |
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11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
Louisville hung in against Clemson last season losing, 30-24. The Cardinals are better this season and catch Clemson off a confidence-draining 35-14 loss to Notre Dame. That was the Tigers' worst loss to an unranked foe in 11 years and cost them six spots in the College Football Playoff rankings. That loss occurred at Notre Dame. But the Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in their last dozen home games. Meanwhile, Louisville is playing its finest ball putting together a four-game win streak with two of those victories coming against ranked Wake Forest and James Madison, who was ranked earlier in the season. The Cardinals are surrendering just 14.5 points during their last four games. Talented dual threat QB Malik Cunningham has accounted for 19 touchdowns while throwing only four interceptions. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
After opening with three straight losses, Buffalo is very much in the bowl picture after going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. The Bulls have produced 34 or more points in three of their last four games. Buffalo QB Cole Snyder should have a big game against a Central Michigan secondary that ranks 79th in pass defense. The Chippewas give up 29 points per game, which ranks 87th. Central Michigan has failed to score more than 18 points in four of its last six games. The Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. |
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11-08-22 | Ball State v. Toledo -11 | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Ball State going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have faced not only weak competition during this span, but also caught opponents missing key injured players. When stepping up, the Cardinals have failed to cover the last five times against above .500 opponents. Toledo is 6-3 and several steps up in class for Ball State. The Rockets have tremendous skill position talent. They are averaging 35.9 points, which is a top-25 figure. That average goes up to 45.5 points per game in four home matchups. Ball State doesn't have the offense to keep pace ranking 90th in scoring at 24.8 points per game. The Cardinals are below average on defense, too. |
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11-05-22 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern +4 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
South Alabama has played one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country. That's going to catch up to the Jaguars in this matchup. I wasn't a fan of Clay Helton when he was at USC. But he's done a fine job with Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 5-3 with all three of their losses coming on the road. They are 3-0 SU and ATS at home. One of those Georgia Southern victories was 45-38 against James Madison as a 13-point 'dog. The Eagles produced nearly 600 yards of total offense in that game. Georgia Southern is averaging 36.9 points and ranks 11th in total yards. South Alabama has impressive defensive numbers. But those are skewed because of numerous weak offenses the Jaguars have faced. Besides home field, the Eagles also have another scheduling factor in their favor - they were idle last week. Georgia Southern has a strong history against the Jaguars winning and covering the last four times it hosted them. The Eagles have won seven of their past eight games against the Jaguars. |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite? Nope. Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games. The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. |
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10-29-22 | San Diego State +9 v. Fresno State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Michigan is a real power this season. The Wolverines have sights set on bigger things such as winning the national championship. Michigan State has more modest goals. This is the Spartans' Super Bowl. Michigan State gets sky high for this in-state, Big Ten rivalry matchup far more than Michigan does. It's not a coincidence the Spartans have covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings, including winning straight-up each of the past two years. The Spartans are a disappointing 3-4, but they regained some lost confidence by defeating Wisconsin in their last game. Michigan State QB Payton Thorne had his most efficient game of the season in that victory. |
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10-29-22 | Rutgers +14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender. The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games. Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points. The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion. The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -3 v. SMU | 29-27 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
I see a class difference here much bigger than the point spread. Cincinnati has won the past two AAC titles. The Bearcats have won five in a row and are fresh after being idle last week. SMU has failed to cover in its last five games. The Mustangs surrender nearly 30 points a game and rank 122nd in run defense. Cincinnati averages 38.2 points a game. SMU's strength is its passing attack. The Bearcats have a top-20 pass defense. Cincinnati gives up 4.3 yards per play compared to the Mustangs allowing 6.2 yards per play. The Bearcats have defeated the Mustangs by 29 points and 34 points during the last two seasons. The gap isn't that large this season, but it's still substantial enough for the Bearcats to easily cover the spread. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog. It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach. I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line. "We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season. |
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10-15-22 | San Jose State v. Fresno State +8 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Man a lot can change in a year. Fresno State rolled past San Jose State, 40-9, as a 7-point road favorite last season. Now the Bulldogs find themselves more than a touchdown underdog at home to the Spartans. That's what a four-game losing streak can do to a team. The Bulldogs lost their outstanding QB Jake Haener in their third game against USC. The following week the Bulldogs had to travel East and were stunned by Connecticut. That was a bad loss. But Fresno State still has plenty of talent. The Bulldogs should play better here at home. They have been on the road for their last three games. The season has gone well for 4-1 San Jose State. The Spartans have covered four in a row. That's made the Spartans overpriced here, though, in my view. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa State plays outstanding defense and catches Texas in a sandwich spot. The Longhorns just ended a four-game losing streak to Oklahoma in dominating fashion winning, 49-0. Texas faces unbeaten Oklahoma State next week. Iowa State has a bye next week. So the Cyclones should be going all out. The Cyclones give up the eighth-fewest points in the nation at 13.7. They rank 11th in total defense holding foes to 227.5 yards per game. The Cyclones have been in every game. They are 3-3 with their three defeats coming by an average of 3.6 points. Two of their losses occurred to ranked teams. Look for them to hang in against Texas. |
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10-08-22 | Clemson v. Boston College +20.5 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
Clemson may not be as up as it should be for 1-3 Boston College. The Tigers won a wild double overtime victory against Wake Forest, 51-45, two weeks ago on the road and then took care of North Carolina State at home, 30-20, last week. The Tigers are at Florida State next week. So this looms as a flat spot for them. Boston College and its heralded but disappointing QB, Phil Jurkovec, finally showed something last week upsetting Louisville, 34-33, last week as a 13 1/2-point 'dog. The Eagles produced 454 yards of offense. Boston College has a tremendous history of covering games in October going 16-5 ATS (76%) the past 21 times. Clemson had a tough time at home against Boston College the past two years winning, 19-13, as a 15-point favorite last season and prevailing, 34-28, as a 24-point favorite two years ago. |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points. This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons. Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches. So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country. Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points. |
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10-01-22 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State -7 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Louisiana-Monroe has played two road games this season. The Warhawks lost by 42 points to Texas and fell to Alabama by 56 points in those away matchups. Arkansas State certainly isn't the caliber of the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. But the Red Wolves are more than a touchdown better than Monroe at home. The Red Wolves have covered the past 12 times against the Warhawks. The Warhawks rank 116th in scoring averaging 18.3 points. They are 112th defensively giving up 34.8 points. Yet Monroe could actually be in a letdown spot after upsetting UW-Lafayette, 21-17, at home last Saturday as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. Arkansas State has a huge quarterback edge with James Blackman. The Red Wolves rolled over Grambling, 58-3, at home opening week. They've been on the road for their next three games. Those were all losses. But the Red Wolves had tough competition playing Ohio State, Memphis and Old Dominion. Now they finally get to play at home again. The Warkhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Look for Arkansas State to make it 13 straight covers against Monroe. |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas made a great coaching hire with Lance Leipold last year. That's becoming even more clear this season as Leipold has the Jayhawks at 4-0 and close to Top-25 status. The Jayhawks have been doing it with offense averaging 47 points behind QB Jalon Daniels. Iowa State is the opposite. The 3-1 Cyclones rely on a stingy defense that ranks 14th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. This is a tough spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones had their Big 12 home conference victory streak snapped at 11 losing to Baylor, 31-24, last Saturday. Now the Cyclones have to travel to Kansas where the Jayhawks are on the verge of a national breakthrough. |
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10-01-22 | East Carolina -8.5 v. South Florida | Top | 48-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 6 m | Show | |
The Hawkeyes have had this game circled ever since Michigan embarrassed them, 42-3, in the Big 10 Championship Game last December. Michigan is 4-0. But the Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the country - Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut and Maryland. They played all those teams at home, too. The Wolverines haven't seen a defense anywhere near this elite caliber. Iowa gives up the fewest points per game at 5.8 and the fifth fewest yards per game. The Hawkeyes have a tremendous record of upsetting top-five ranked teams going 5-1 during the past six instances. |
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09-24-22 | USC -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings. But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback. The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over. |
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09-24-22 | Toledo v. San Diego State +3 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
San Diego State went 12-2 last season. The Aztecs lost some key players, but they shouldn't be a home underdog to Toledo. The Rockets are 2-1, but look at who they've played. Toledo's victories have been against Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10. Those victories padded their team statistics. When Toledo stepped way up in class, the Rockets were clobbered, 77-21, at Ohio State. The Aztecs are 1-2 but have played stronger competition. Their losses were to Pac-12 teams, Arizona and powerful Utah. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State +17 v. Washington State | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a great situational play to fade Washington State. The Cougars are coming off a monster road upset of Wisconsin. Up next for the Cougars is a much bigger game, their Pac-12 opener at home against Oregon. You couldn't fault the Cougars if they overlook and take for granted Colorado State. The Rams have looked terrible in their two games, getting blown out by Michigan and getting upset at home by Middle Tennessee State. Improvement should be forthcoming for the Rams under new coach Jay Norvell. They have a talented freshman QB, Clay Millen, and are better than they have looked. Colorado State was tabbed to finish in the top-five in the Mountain West Conference before the season began. So there is talent there. Washington State is not some great team just because it stunned Wisconsin. The Cougars struggled at home to get past Idaho, 24-17, the week before playing Wisconsin as a four-touchdown favorite. They were projected to be a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. The Cougars have covered only two of their last nine non-conference games even with that victory against the Badgers. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first. Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games. BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua. Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor. But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week. Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line. |
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09-10-22 | South Alabama v. Central Michigan -4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup. South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved. Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games. Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings. Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line. Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him. The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +1.5 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Illinois plus 1 1/2 at Indiana The Illini have star running back Chase Brown and a better defense than Indiana. They also have the advantage of having played a game, looking impressive in a 38-6 victory against Wyoming last Saturday. Indiana was 2-10 last season. That included an 0-9 Big Ten season in which the Hoosiers lost by an average of 24.6 points. So I believe the wrong team is favored here. Illinois held Wyoming to six points on 212 total yards. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley was 5-of-20 for 30 passing yards. Indiana has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers didn't play last week and didn't even hold a spring game. They haven't even announced who their starting QB will be trying to replace Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington. The Hoosiers are emphasizing a spread offense since they can't run the ball very well unlike Illinois, who rushed for 260 yards against Wyoming with Brown gaining 151 yards on the ground on 19 carries. Wyoming is bad, but so is Indiana. The Illini's strength is a defense that ranked in the top-30 in giving up the fewest points per game at 21.9. Illinois only permitted four passing TD's in Big Ten games and return three/fourths of its secondary.
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois -10 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
Illinois' defense showed great improvement last year holding opponents to 21.9 points per game after giving up 34.9 points a game in 2020. The Illini ranked 31st in scoring defense - down from 97th of two seasons ago - while holding nine of their 12 opponents below their season scoring average. Look for the Illini to shut down Wyoming, which was hammered with skill position players transferring. The list of lost players includes their two top QB's along with wide receivers Isaiah Neyor and Xazavian Valladay. The point spread key is if Illinois has enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread. I believe they do. The ground game is there with Chase Brown, the best skill position player on either side and one of the better running backs in the Big Ten. The Illini also upgraded their passing attack with Tommy DeVito, formerly of Syracuse. DeVito isn't a star, but he's more of a downfield threat than what the Illini had. He can effectively pick his spots against a Cowboys secondary that lost all four of their starters. Wyoming hasn't defeated a Power Five program on the road in 17 years. Don't look for that streak to end here. |