Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-12-23 | Purdue -4 v. Northwestern | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Much respect to Northwestern for its 17-7 season. But I don't see the Wildcats keeping this one close against top-ranked 23-2 Purdue. Purdue has too much balance and depth for the Wildcats. Led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are serious contenders to win the national championship. Northwestern is nowhere near that level. Beating disappointing Wisconsin and Ohio State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games, during the past week on the road does not elevate the Wildcats into elite atmosphere. |
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02-12-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Hawaii -4.5 | Top | 52-51 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number? I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times. Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game. The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home. |
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02-11-23 | Jazz v. Knicks -5.5 | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
This spot sets up for the home Knicks catching the Jazz playing for the fourth time in six days and without rest. Utah upset the Raptors in Toronto last night. The Knicks also played last night - and blew a 12-point third-quarter lead in a 119-108 loss to the 76ers. New York is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing the second of back-to-back games. Russell Westbrook may or may not make his debut for the retooled Jazz. It's a major transition for the Jazz if ball hog Westbrook is in the lineup. The Knicks have a huge historical edge, too, when hosting Utah covering 13 of the last 17 times at home in the series. |
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02-11-23 | Sam Houston State -115 v. Abilene Christian | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
I like Sam Houston State in a bounce back spot. The Bearkats had their five-game win streak snapped by Texas Arlington in their last game. The Bearkats are 16-5 ATS following a defeat. The Bearkats have too much 3-point shooting and defense for Abilene Christian. Sam Houston State ranks fifth in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bearkats also have the nation's No. 8 defense giving up 59.3 points a game, while ranking 18th in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian ranks 325th in defensive field goal percentage.
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02-10-23 | Fresno State v. Nevada -9 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack. The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. |
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02-10-23 | Mavs v. Kings -125 | 122-114 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Kyrie Irving is with the Mavericks now. I doubt Luka Doncic plays, though. He's been out with a bruised heel. But even if Doncic suits up, I still like the Kings to beat Dallas at home here. There's going to be a transition period for Irving and Doncic. I'm not convinced the two can effectively co-exist. The Kings have their own two stars - De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who leads the NBA in double/doubles. Dallas is playing its fourth road game in six days. The Mavericks are off consecutive upset victories against the Jazz and Clippers, both achieved minus Doncic. The Mavericks, however, are 8-20-1 ATS following a victory. They also have the worst ATS mark in the NBA despite those two wins at 21-33-2 and are six games below .500 on the road. The Kings are 16-11 at home. They have the sixth-best ATS record in the league at 29-24-1 and are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting Dallas. |
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02-10-23 | Hornets +10.5 v. Celtics | 116-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Even with key players out, you can't fault the Celtics if they overlook Charlotte. The Hornets have lost five in a row. The Celtics are off a highly-satisfying home victory against the 76ers this past Wednesday, beating Philadelphia while playing shorthanded. After this game, the Celtics host the Grizzlies on Sunday and then play at the Bucks on Tuesday. So it's not an ideal situational spot for the Celtics to be highly motivated for this weak opponent. The Hornets, though, have triple revenge. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS the last six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Boston also is going to be without All-Star Jaylen Brown and ace defender Marcus Smart. The Celtics also could be minus Jayson Tatum. He's questionable with a non-COVID illness. |
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02-10-23 | Knicks v. 76ers -5 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
The 76ers are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of two in a row. Both of those losses came on the road - to the Knicks this past Sunday and to the Celtics two days ago. The 76ers blew an early 21-point lead against New York and did not play well versus Boston. Now, though, the 76ers are back home where they are 20-8. Philadelphia has covered 17 of its past 23 (74 percent) home contests. I trust the 76ers to get the job down at home against a foe they are at least one level higher than. |
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02-09-23 | Bucks -6 v. Lakers | Top | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The Lakers have had some great teams. This isn't one of them. Acquiring D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt while getting rid of Russell Westbrook should help the Lakers. Just not right now for this matchup. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight, in compiling the third-best record in the NBA at 37-17. The Bucks also have the fourth-best mark against the spread mark (ATS) at 29-23-2. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Milwaukee's Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo - solidly in the MVP running - Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are all healthy. The Bucks are well-rested, too, following their 127-108 road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Monday. The Lakers are always going to get respect from the oddsmaker because they are such a public team and have superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record two days ago at home. That drew the headlines. Oh, yeah, the Lakers lost that game to the Thunder as a 6 1/2-point favorite. LA surrendered 133 points to the Thunder. Lack of defense has been a problem all season for the Lakers, who rank 28th in scoring defense permitting 118.6 points a game. Davis has returned from a foot injury. But he hasn't sparked anything while playing second fiddle to James. LA is 3-4 in seven games since Davis has been back. I find this another case of the Lakers getting too much respect on the line. They didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't on track to make the postseason this season with a 25-30 record that puts them 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference. The Lakers' ATS mark is similar to their won-lost record at 25-29-1. They are merely a .500 team at home. LA doesn't have a good record either when stepping up in competition going 8-18-1 ATS the past 27 times versus above .500 opponents. Milwaukee has revenge motivation for a 133-129 home loss to the Lakers on Dec. 2. The Bucks have covered in four of their last five road games against the Lakers. |
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02-08-23 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 239.5 | 130-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Maybe I should drink some sake because I feel like a kamikaze pilot attacking a Kings-Rockets total by going Under. Sacramento just beat Houston, 140-120, on the road this past Monday. Now the Rockets host the Kings again in the rematch. The Kings lead the NBA in scoring at 119.3 points per game. So why go Under? I see the Rockets going all out defensively following that embarrassment and with Houston coach Stephen Silas ripping his team and questioning their defensive effort and intensity. Silas was understandably livid after that humiliation. The Kings shot 58.4 percent from the floor in that 20-point victory. The Rockets aren't that bad ranking 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Sacramento also made 21 of 41 3-pointers in that game for 51 percent. Sacramento shoots 36.8 percent from 3-point range. Believe it or not, the Under has cashed in 20 of the Kings' last 28 away games. Sacramento is below average defensively ranking 21st, which isn't horrible. But keep in mind the Rockets rank 29th in scoring and last in field goal percentage. They have gone Under six of the past eight times following a double-digit home loss. |
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02-08-23 | Pistons +13 v. Cavs | 85-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Cleveland can't be faulted for being overconfident. The Cavaliers have won three in a row, all in blowout fashion. Detroit is terrible. But the Pistons should produce an effort here with the trade deadline one day away. The Cavaliers have two of their key players questionable - Donovan Mitchell with groin soreness and Darius Garland with thumb soreness.
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02-08-23 | Memphis v. South Florida OVER 152 | Top | 99-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
No surprise that Memphis ranks 25th in scoring averaging 80.2 points. The Tigers have Kendric Davis, play fast and feature a deep bench. They are averaging 86 points in regulation during their past three games. It's South Florida who has caught the oddsmaker off guard with its up-tempo style. The Bulls don't play slow anymore. It's not a fluke that the Over has cashed in 17 of their last 21 games. The Over also has cashed in nine of South Florida's past 12 home games. There is a blueprint for this matchup. It came on Dec. 29 in Memphis when the Tigers hosted South Florida. There were 179 points scored in Memphis' 93-86 victory. Neither team could stop the other especially on the defensive glass. The Bulls aren't going to back down from Memphis especially in revenge mode and playing at home. The Tigers should be pumped for a big scoring performance, too, after having their five-game win streak snapped by underdog Tulane at home this past Saturday in an overtime loss. |
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02-07-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 112-146 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Due to playing the Timberwolves at Minnesota on less than 24 hours rest this past Sunday, the Nuggets held out a number of key players, including Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. The result was a 128-98 Timberwolves' victory. Welcome to today's NBA where teams combat unfair schedule spots by resting their best players, thus conceding the game before it even begins. The Nuggets had just beaten the Hawks this past Saturday night for their third straight win before deciding to give up against Minnesota the following day. This sets up a day of reckoning for the Timberwolves here. And I like the Nuggets, who will be back to full strength, to exact vengeance. Denver is 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a loss. The Timberwolves now are facing a fatigue factor - playing for the seven time in 12 days and third in five days - while missing players. Minnesota is minus injured Karl-Anthony Towns and suspended Austin Rivers. Kyle Anderson could be out, too, with a back injury. He's missed the last two games. |
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02-07-23 | NC State +7.5 v. Virginia | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
North Carolina State is playing too well to be this high of a road underdog. The Wolfpack lead the ACC in scoring at 79.6 points a game. They are 8-1 in their last nine games with four consecutive victories. During this span, the Wolfpack have defeated Duke Miami, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Virginia is a tremendous defensive team again. But the Cavaliers only average 70.3 points a game. Asking them to cover this high of a number is too much given North Carolina State's offense and high level of play.
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02-06-23 | Mavs +9.5 v. Jazz | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
I don't like laying points with the Mavericks. I do like them as an underdog, though, even when they don't have superstar Luka Doncic. That's the case again in this matchup. The teams just met on Jan. 28 in Salt Lake City. The Mavericks didn't have Doncic and lost, 108-100, in that game. The Mavericks were plus 7 1/12 in that matchup. So they just missed covering. Dallas had covered the previous five times on the road against the Jazz. Now the Mavericks are getting close to double-digits. They won't have Kyrie Irving yet, but their rotation players should be highly motivated to produce knowing their roles could change with the expected arrival of Irving. Dallas has had good success versus Utah covering 10 of the last 13 times. |
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02-06-23 | Spurs +10.5 v. Bulls | 104-128 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The Bulls are laying the most points they have all season. I don't see the spot setting up well enough for them to cover. Chicago is fat and happy having won two in a row, both at home. The Bulls rallied from 17 points down to defeat the Trail Blazers, 129-121, this past Saturday. This marks Chicago's third game in five days. The Bulls have a much more challenging matchup on Tuesday when they meet the Grizzlies in Memphis. So there's no need for them to go all out against the lowly Spurs. Overconfidence could factor against the Bulls, too. San Antonio has lost eight in a row. This is the start of the Spurs' annual rodeo trip. They've been idle since Friday. The Spurs are capable of beating the Bulls. They proved that with a 129-124 win back on Oct. 28 during the first meeting this season. San Antonio has covered five of the last six times versus the Bulls. |
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02-06-23 | Cavs v. Wizards +3 | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
The Wizards have blown 20-plus point leads in each of their last two games. So they should be extremely focused for this matchup. They catch the Cavaliers playing without rest after Cleveland defeated the Pacers, 122-103, on Sunday. This is important. So are the Wizards owning a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games versus opponents who are above .500 at home. Cleveland also is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing on zero rest and 2-7 ATS following a win. The Cavaliers are 6-14-2 ATS in their past 22 road games. That's a lot of trends lining up against the Cavaliers. Bradley Beal should play for the Wizards after missing their last game this past Saturday due to a foot injury. He participated in the Wizards' shootaround this morning. |
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02-05-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday. Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games. This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996. The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa. Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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02-05-23 | Raptors v. Grizzlies -3.5 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
I want the Grizzlies going for me at home in this spot. The Grizzlies are in an ornery mood following a 128-113 road loss to the Cavaliers. Dillon Brooks was suspended for this game because of his cheap shot actions against Donovan Mitchell in that loss to Cleveland. The Grizzlies don't see it that way. They believe the NBA is against them. Memphis has won eight of its last nine home games and are expected to get back center Jaren Jackson, who missed the Cavaliers game due to a thigh bruise. That's huge because Memphis remains without Steven Adams. Toronto concludes its seven-game, 12-day road journey here. The Raptors just beat the Rockets, 117-111, two days ago. The fatigue factor on the Raptors is high. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS the past eight times when playing an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 52 home contests. |
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02-05-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan UNDER 144 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Both teams are struggling offensively as the rugged Big Ten season hits the first weekend of February. Ohio State has failed to break the 60-point barrier in three of its last five games. The Buckeyes are averaging 63.3 points in their last three games. Michigan is averaging 63.4 points during its last five games. The Wolverines have held three of their last five foes to 64 or fewer points. Ohio State defends the 3-point shot well. So I see defense carrying the day in this one. |
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02-04-23 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here. Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points. Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600. The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game. Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record. The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win. |
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02-04-23 | Michigan State v. Rutgers UNDER 127.5 | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Michigan State is strong defensively. No surprise there. Rutgers is super strong defensively ranking in the top-six nationally in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The combination of outstanding defenses and this intense matchup being played at Madison Square Garden in New York should produce a very low-scoring game - and an Under. College teams not used to playing at Madison Square Garden often have trouble scoring there because of the large arena and shooting background. It is a tough, foreign court in a city full of distractions. Michigan State is averaging only 62 points during its last two games. The teams met on Jan. 19 at Michigan State. The Spartans won, 70-57. That's a total of 127 points. Note there were nine unanswered garbage points scored during the final minute that inflated that final score. |
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02-03-23 | Boise State +6.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season. Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday. The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many. Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points. The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games. |
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02-03-23 | Kings v. Pacers +2.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The Pacers are an underrated home team with a 16-11 record. They have covered eight of their past 11 home contests. Indiana has revenge for an embarrassing 23-point road loss to the Kings on Nov. 30. The Pacers also have back their best all-around player, Tyrese Haliburton. He played last night scoring 26 points and dishing off 12 assists against the Lakers after missing the previous 10 games. The Pacers blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to the Lakers in that loss. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers' previous game before the Lakers was back on Sunday. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Sacramento will be missing its star guard and leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. This will be the Kings' first game without him since Dec. 11. So there will be an adjustment factor. |
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02-03-23 | Kings v. Pacers UNDER 235.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
These teams aren't as bad defensively as perceived. The Kings are giving up an average of 108.4 points during their last five games, all of which have gone Under. The Pacers have surrendered 112 points, or fewer, in four of their last six games. Sacramento will be minus its leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. Fox also is No. 2 on the team in assists. It's a big blow for the Kings not to have him. The Under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times the Kings have been on the road against a foe with an above .500 home record. The Under has also cashed four of the last five times Indiana has hosted Sacramento. |
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02-02-23 | Santa Clara +14 v. Gonzaga | 70-88 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example. Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games. Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team. |
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02-02-23 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Mavs | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are in full stop-the-pain mode, losers of nine in a row. Except for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are finally healthy now. Brandon Ingram should have the rust off having played in the past three games following a 29-game absence because of a toe injury. New Orleans is stepping down in class after having played the Bucks this past Sunday and Nuggets two days ago. The Mavericks aren't fully healthy either minus Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood, their second-leading scorer at 18.4 points per game. Dallas is coming off a victory against the Pistons and has a bigger matchup on deck facing the Warriors on Saturday. The Mavericks are 5-20-1 ATS following a win. They also have been terrible when laying three or more points going 7-20-1 ATS in that role. |
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02-02-23 | Queens NC +4.5 v. Lipscomb | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games. Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. |
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02-02-23 | William & Mary +1 v. Hampton | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton. William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record. The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11. William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense. The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests. |
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02-01-23 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The Thunder should play with defensive intensity having lost six in a row, including giving up 128 points to the Warriors at home this past Monday. Oklahoma City ranks sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Houston is minus its leading scorer, Jalen Green (calf), and top assists guy Kevin Porter Jr. (foot). The Rockets have been playing better defense lately holding their last five foes to an average of 112.4 points. This is down from their season average of giving up 117.1 points a game. There were 223 points scored in the first meeting with the Rockets winning, 118-105, back on Nov. 26. It marked the sixth time in seven meetings the teams had gone Under when playing in Houston. |
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02-01-23 | Army v. Lehigh -125 | 71-69 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Lehigh's momentum and revenge in this matchup against Army. The Mountain Hawks have won eight in a row. They are 8-2 at home. Army has lost three of its last four games. Lehigh has a much stronger defense than Army. The Mountain Hawks also have played the tougher schedule. Army hosted Lehigh on Dec. 30 and won 80-78. Army shot better than 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from 3-point range yet merely won by two points at home. |
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02-01-23 | Pittsburgh +8.5 v. North Carolina | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes. Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents. The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points. |
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01-31-23 | San Diego State v. Nevada +3.5 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno. The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots. |
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01-31-23 | Clippers -2.5 v. Bulls | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
The Clippers were riding a season-best five-game win streak going into their last game. That streak came to a crashing halt with a 122-99 road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. The Clippers didn't play well in that game. They also chose to sit out superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George along with point guard Reggie Jackson. I don't care so much about Jackson, who is questionable with a sore Achilles, but Leonard and George aren't on the injury report. Both are expected to play. That's good enough for me to get involved with the Clippers against an inconsistent 23-26 Bulls squad that isn't in a great situational spot. It's Chicago's first home game in a week. The Bulls have been on the road for their past three games. Leonard and George are playing at high levels. Leonard is averaging 30.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals during his last five games. George is averaging 24.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 steals in his last five games. The Clippers have covered eight of the past 11 times when playing a below .500 opponent. The Bulls have a huge revenge game up next hosting the Hornets on Thursday. Charlotte upset the Bulls in embarrassing fashion, 111-96, this past Thursday in Charlotte. |
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01-31-23 | Northern Illinois +5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC. Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago. Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes. Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met. |
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01-30-23 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts -15 | Top | 53-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts. The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country. South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road. Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games. I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference. |
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01-30-23 | Magic +10 v. 76ers | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Despite two consecutive losses, Orlando has been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 19 of its last 26 games for 73 percent. The 76ers have won seven in a row with the last two of their victories coming against the Nets and Nuggets this past Saturday. That's highly satisfying. Joel Embiid sparked the 76ers in that victory with 47 points and 18 rebounds in the 126-119 win. I see this as a flat spot for the 76ers. So much of a flat spot that there is the possibility they would rest Embiid, who has been dealing with left foot soreness. Even if Embiid plays, I believe the spunky Magic will hang in. They haven't lost three in a row since late December. Orlando is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times when getting points and is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when playing on one day rest. |
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01-28-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal Poly UNDER 125.5 | Top | 65-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set. Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games. Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game. |
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01-28-23 | Mavs +8 v. Jazz | 100-108 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The Mavericks defeated the Suns on the road two days ago without Luka Doncic for most of the game and they can keep this game close minus Doncic. Dallas has won the past two times as an underdog defeating Phoenix and Miami eight days ago. Dallas has covered 10 of the last 12 times versus the Jazz, including the past five times in Utah. |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | 61-51 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games. The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago. The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play. |
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01-28-23 | Samford v. Wofford +3 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season. Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak. The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight. |
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01-27-23 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
The defending world champion Warriors are a disappointing 24-24. Golden State, though, is 18-6 at home. The Warriors will be highly motivated to defeat Toronto at home tonight. They still haven't forgotten the Raptors beating them to win the 2019 championship. Golden State also goes on the road for its next three games following this matchup. Toronto is 7-15 away from home. The Raptors are 6-14 ATS playing at Golden State. Toronto is fat and happy after an impressive, 113-95, win against the hot Kings this past Wednesday. The Raptors have won two straight. Only once this season have they posted three consecutive victories. |
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01-27-23 | Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 141.5 | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
New Mexico has scored 76 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. The Lobos are the 14th-highest scoring team in the nation. They should have no problem getting their points against Air Force, which is slipping defensively. The Falcons have surrendered at least 70 points in seven of their last eight games. They just gave up 82 points to San Jose State this past Tuesday. That was 14 points above San Jose State's season scoring average. Air Force should get its share of points, too. New Mexico is last in the Mountain West Conference in two-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lobos' last 11 home games. |
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01-27-23 | Buffalo v. Kent State -10 | 68-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday. The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite. That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games. Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records. |
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01-26-23 | San Diego +4 v. Pepperdine | 87-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC. The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine. San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games. |
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01-26-23 | Bulls -5 v. Hornets | Top | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana. The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110. Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot. Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player. The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games. Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games. |
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01-26-23 | SMU +13 v. Memphis | 84-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation. Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. |
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01-25-23 | Wolves v. Pelicans UNDER 231.5 | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Center Rudy Gobert may be the best defensive front-court player in the NBA. His presence makes a difference. And he's back for Minnesota. Given that plus the situation and the Pelicans ranking No. 1 in 3-point defensive field goal percentage, I'm going Under this total. The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing 119-114 loss to the Rockets, who had lost 13 straight losses entering the matchup. Gobert returned after missing the previous three games due to a groin injury. He had 16 rebounds and four blocks. But the Timberwolves ran into a sizzling Jalen Green, who scored 42 points on 15-of-25 shooting from the floor. Minnesota coach Chris Finch ripped his team following the loss for their lack of focus. The Pelicans showed a lot of defensive heart holding the Nuggets to a season-low 36 points in the second half last night. The Pelicans lost, 99-98, though, despite holding the Nuggets to 18 points under their season average. The Pelicans should be up for another strong defensive effort being home while not looking to push tempo playing without rest. |
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01-25-23 | South Carolina +16.5 v. Florida | 60-81 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home. So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games. Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards. The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory. |
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01-25-23 | Samford +7 v. Furman | Top | 84-91 | Push | 0 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range. Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line. Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent. This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times. |
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01-24-23 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +4.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group. Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS. Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games. The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark. |
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01-24-23 | Davidson -3.5 v. La Salle | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. |
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01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls UNDER 239.5 | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
I understand why this total is being bet up. Both teams are offensive-minded and haven't been playing very good defense. But there are situational elements that favor the Under. The Hawks are in action for the third time in four days. Their last game was a track meet against the Hornets. I don't expect a fast pace. The Bulls just returned from beating the Pistons in Paris this past Thursday. So they might not have their legs due to jet lag. These Eastern Conference teams know each other well. This is their third meeting of the season. There were 218 points scored when the Bulls won, 110-108, on Dec. 22 the last time they played. There were 220 points scored in regulation during the first meeting, which went into overtime. Now look where the total sits. |
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01-23-23 | Delaware State v. South Carolina State -6.5 | 88-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep. How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row. Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points. Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games. |
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01-23-23 | Celtics v. Magic +8.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Boston is hot, winners of nine in a row. The Celtics also are banged-up and in a flat spot. Boston has a bigger game on Tuesday playing the Heat in Miami. The Celtics won't have Jayson Tatum today. They aren't likely to have Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III either. Both were injured in the Celtics' 106-104 road victory at Toronto this past Saturday. That was a gutty win for the Celtics. Boston loses a lot of defense without Smart and Williams. The Magic should be motivated after giving up a season-high 138 points to the Wizards in a 20-point road loss to the Wizards two days ago. The Magic lacked energy in that game having beaten the Pelicans at home the night before. They should be far more physical in this matchup. Until that loss to the Wizards, the Magic were flying below the radar going 12-8 SU, 15-5 ATS pulling off straight-up underdog victories against the Celtics, Raptors, Warriors, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Clippers. |
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01-23-23 | Bucks -11 v. Pistons | Top | 150-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go. Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats. There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues. From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit. |
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01-22-23 | Grizzlies -9 v. Suns | 110-112 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Suns for beating the Nets and Pacers during their last two games despite having multiple injuries to key players. However, I don't see the Suns winning a third straight game minus so many players against an angry Grizzlies squad. Memphis had its 11-game win streak halted by the Lakers on Friday night, 122-121. The Grizzlies blew a 13-point second-half lead. Until defeating the Pacers - who shot 37.5 percent from the floor against Phoenix and were missing their leading scorer, Tyrese Haliburton - the Suns had lost nine of 10. The Suns are without Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton - their three best players - along with Cam Johnson and guards Cam Payne and Landry Shamet. The Grizzlies hosted the Suns three games ago and buried Phoenix, 136-106, six days ago. |
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01-22-23 | Temple +20 v. Houston | 56-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Underrated 11-9 Temple hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points this season. I understand the Owls haven't met a team as good as Houston. But I do see this line as being inflated. The Owls are playing well with five wins in their last seven games going 6-1 ATS during this time frame. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road contests when matched against a foe with a home winning percentage of more than .600. Houston hasn't looked sharp in two of its last three home games. The Cougars struggled to beat South Florida, 83-77, as a 23 1/2-point favorite and only beat Central Florida, 71-65, as a 15 1/2-point favorite. |
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01-21-23 | Florida Atlantic v. UTEP OVER 132.5 | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78 points on the season. The Owls have gone Over 68 percent of the time during their last 32 road games. UTEP also is a good shooting team. The Miners have broken 80 points in two of their last three games. The Over has cashed 13 of the past 16 times following a UTEP victory. The Miners scored 81 points in a 20-point victory against Florida International in their last game. |
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01-21-23 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 225.5 | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
The Raptors will be stressing defense after blowing an 18-point lead in a 128-126 loss to the Timberwolves this past Thursday. They catch Boston minus Jayson Tatum, who will sit out because of a sore wrist. The Celtics rank in the top-seven in defensive efficiency since big man Robert Williams returned. The Celtics won't be playing fast after a tiring, 121-118, come-from-behind overtime win against the Warriors two days ago. The Raptors play at a slow pace, too. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the Raptors have hosted Boston. |
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01-20-23 | Pelicans -130 v. Magic | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The Pelicans should be highly motivated to beat the Magic after an embarrassing, 124-98, home loss to the Heat this past Wednesday. The 16-28 Magic are playing their first home game in more than two weeks after concluding a five-game road trip that finished this past Sunday with a 119-116 loss to the Nuggets. Being idle for five days is being off for too long. So I don't expect the Magic to be sharp. New Orleans is at its best against bad team teams. The Pelicans are 19-7-1 (73 percent) ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. They have covered the past five times against sub .500 opponents. The Pelicans are the superior team even without injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and this spot sets up well for them. |
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01-19-23 | 76ers v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The 76ers are 3-0 on their five-game Western Conference road swing and playing well. But I see them getting tripped up by the Trail Blazers here. It's Philadelphia's fourth game in six days. The 76ers have failed to cover a spread during their last six games in Portland. The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games. Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games when facing an opponent that has a winning home record. Portland is playing well, too. The Trail Blazers won and covered both of their home games against the Mavericks this past Saturday and Sunday. They then played the Nuggets tough in Denver two days ago in a loss that had a misleading final score. Look for Portland to bounce back being home again catching the 76ers fat and happy. |
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01-19-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -2.5 | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rutgers is having a strong season breaking into the Top-25. But the Scarlet Knights have never won at Michigan State. I don't see that changing here. The Spartans are off tough losses against Illinois and third-ranked Purdue, 64-63. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Spartans and they are home. Michigan State has played very strong offenses this season yet rank 36th in defensive efficiency. I see the Scarlet Knights have problems scoring. |
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01-17-23 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt +8.5 | 78-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is battle-tested, at home and draws the Crimson Tide being possibly distracted by Darius Miles being kicked off the team after he was arrested and charged with murder in a shooting death of a young mother. Alabama is playing well, but is in a letdown spot after burying LSU, 106-66, this past Saturday. Vanderbilt has played three straight ranked teams. The Commodores are better than their 9-8 record. Just ask 15th-ranked Arkansas. Vanderbilt defeated the Razorbacks, 97-84, at home this past Saturday. Alabama has been at its point spread-worst when playing on Tuesday going 1-10 ATS the past 11 times. |
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01-17-23 | Nets -6 v. Spurs | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
The Nets must prove they can win without Kevin Durant. Or at least beat bottom-feeders. This is their chance. I see the Nets being highly motivated in this matchup against the Spurs, who are 1-8 in their last nine games, including losing five in a row. Brooklyn had won 14 of 15 games. But then superstar Durant went down with a knee injury and the Nets lost to the Celtics - no shame in that - and then suffered an upsetting, 112-102, home loss to the Thunder this past Sunday. Ben Simmons didn't play in the loss to the Thunder because of back pain. Simmons has been cleared to play in this game, which is a boost to the Nets' shrinking rotation. Not only do the Nets want to redeem themselves for losing to the Thunder, but this also is the start of a five-game road trip consisting of games against the Suns, Jazz, Warriors and 76ers. Brooklyn doesn't want to start out with a loss to the 13-31 Spurs. So the Nets should be focused. The Nets give up 11 fewer points per game than San Antonio, which ranks last in all of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Spurs' defense has been especially bad lately. The Spurs are surrendering an average of 130.6 points during their last five games. The Nets have covered five of the last six games in this series. |
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01-17-23 | Houston v. Tulane +11 | 80-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
This is Tulane's game of the year. I can see the Green Wave keeping this one closer than the oddsmaker believes. Tulane is 12-5, including 5-1 in the American Athletic Conference, and has won five in a row. Houston gave up a season-high 77 points in a six-point victory against South Florida last Wednesday. The Cougars were 23 1/2-point home favorites in that contest. The Cougars were missing their second-leading scorer, Jarace Walker, and key reserve Ramon Walker Jr. Walker is likely to play while Walker Jr. remains out.
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01-16-23 | Montana State -8.5 v. Idaho | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
It shouldn't surprise that Idaho is last in the Big Sky Conference at 0-5. The Vandals are 6-12 overall. Montana State is second in the Big Sky at 5-1. The Bobcats are 12-7 overall. They have covered the past six times against opponents with a losing record. Montana State is playing well, winning and covering each of its last four games. Each of the victories was by double-digits. By contrast, Idaho has lost six in a row with five of those defeats occurring by double-digits. Look for this pattern to continue here. |
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01-16-23 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Riverside -7.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
UC Riverside is 5-1 in the Big West Conference and 12-6 overall. Cal Poly is 1-4 in the conference and 7-10 overall. The Highlanders have covered the last nine times against sub .500 opponents. The Highlanders have held their last four foes to an average of 59 points. Cal Poly is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 61.3 points. Riverside averages 11 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Mustangs are averaging only 53.4 points during their past four games. |
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01-16-23 | Princeton +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Princeton had won four in a row until suffering a two-point road loss to Brown this past Saturday. The Tigers have covered six of their last seven road games. Princeton is much stronger defensively than Penn, giving up eight fewer points per game than the Quakers. Penn has dropped two of its last three Ivy League games. |
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01-16-23 | Pelicans v. Cavs UNDER 223.5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Aside from Cleveland being the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA giving up an average of 107 points a game, there are strong situational reasons why I like this game to go Under. New Orleans is playing its fifth consecutive road game. It's the first and only time this season the Pelicans will be playing a fifth straight away game. Cleveland just concluded a five-game, 10-day road swing this past Saturday night. The Cavaliers had to go through three different time zones during this time. On top of these fatigue factors is this is an early-start Martin Luther King Day matinee game. So I'm certainly not expecting either team to push pace. The Pelicans are missing two of their three best offensive players with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out with injuries. The Pelicans have relied on 7-foot center Jonas Valanciunas to pick up the scoring. But Valanciunas is going to find it difficult against Cleveland's defensive-minded big men Eric Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Those two have been instrumental in Cleveland ranking No. 1 in defensive rebounding. Donovan Mitchell easily paces the Cavaliers in scoring at 28.8 points per game. Mitchell, however, has been dealing with illness. He was just 5-for-16 shooting from the floor in the Cavaliers' 110-102 loss to the Timberwolves this past Saturday. The Pelicans are a middle-of-the-road defensive team. Their defensive strength is 3-point defense where they rank No. 2. So I'm not expecting Mitchell to go off. He missed seven of nine 3-point shots against Minnesota. |
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01-15-23 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Rutgers | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm going to accept this many points with Ohio State in stop-the-pain mode. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row. However, two of those defeats were in the final seconds in a two-point loss to Purdue and a three-point defeat to Minnesota as big favorites. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS following a loss. The Buckeyes also beat Rutgers earlier this season. Rutgers is a bit fat and happy after pulling out a 65-62 win against Northwestern this past Wednesday. |
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01-14-23 | Grizzlies v. Pacers +8.5 | 130-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Look, I like the Grizzlies. But I don't like them enough to lay this many points in a flat spot against a good home team such as the Pacers. The line is high - inflated in my view - because Indiana is without point guard Tyrese Haliburton and center Myles Turner. There's a chance, though, the Pacers get back forward Aaron Nesmith, who has missed the last two games due to illness. I also like the Pacers' younger players, particularly Bennedict Mathurin. I believe they will step up given the opportunity. The Grizzlies aren't 100 percent healthy either with Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke both questionable. Memphis has won eight in a row. However, the Grizzlies' last five victories were against the Spurs twice, slumping Jazz, Magic and Hornets. Memphis has failed to cover its last three games and has a bigger game on deck at home in revenge mode against the Suns. The Pacers are 15-8 at home, including 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven home contests. They are off a tough, 113-111, home loss last night to the Hawks, who scored the winning basket with less than a second left. Indiana is 21-8 ATS when playing on zero rest. Memphis is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .500 home mark. |
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01-13-23 | Rockets +9.5 v. Kings | 114-139 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is only the third time the Kings are laying more than 9 points. They are 0-2 ATS the previous two times. The Rockets are a bottom feeder, but they shouldn't lack motivation in a rapid revenge spot. The Kings beat Houston, 135-115, two days ago at home. That score was misleading, though. The Rockets led with 8:44 to go before the Kings scored 26 of the final 37 points. The Kings were aided by getting 14 more free throw attempts than the Rockets. Houston lost point guard Kevin Porter Jr. just 10 minutes into the game with a bruised foot. It's a plus if he can play today. If not, the Rockets won't go in unprepared to not having him. Sacramento has failed to cover in six of its last eight home games. |
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01-13-23 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 244.5 | 144-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Not only is this a huge total, but consider the circumstances. The game is being played in the Alamodome, which has a seating capacity of 68,000. There should be close to that many fans at the game. This kind of large arena with this many fans makes it tough on outside shooter's because of the backdrop. It's an unfamiliar setting for both teams. The Warriors held the Spurs to 95 points in the first meeting this season. Golden State won that game, 132-95, on Nov. 15. The Under is 6-1-1 during the past eight games in the series. This will be Stephen Curry's second game back from injury. So the Warriors have to get readjusted to him. Curry is likely to be somewhat rusty, too. The Spurs remain without Devin Vassell. He's their second-leading scorer at 19.4 points per game.
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01-13-23 | Pelicans -5 v. Pistons | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
This is my Game of the Week. The Pistons are off a 135-118 win against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. Detroit hasn't won consecutive games since Nov. 22-23. I don't see the Pistons doing that here. Each of the Pistons' last nine losses were by double-digits. New Orleans is 7-5 in its last 12 games. However, all five of the losses during this span were to good teams. The Pelicans are several tiers better than the Pistons, which makes this point spread too small. Yes, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out for the Pelicans. However, the Pistons also have injuries and their rotation isn't as talented as New Orleans is. Detroit has been without frontcourt players Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. |
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01-12-23 | Colorado v. USC -3 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
This is USC's first home game since Dec. 18. I'm expecting a big performance from the Trjoans, who lost the past two games of their three-game Pac-12 road trip. USC has won seven of its eight home games. Colorado's only road victory came against weak Stanford. The Buffaloes have suffered road defeats to Grambling, Washington and California. Colorado was double-digit favorites against Gambling and California. This easily is the Buffaloes' toughest road task. I'm not looking for them to pass it. USC is the better defensive team and a much better free throw shooting team. |
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01-12-23 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois UNDER 136.5 | Top | 80-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
SIU-Edwardsville is a terrible 3-point shooting team, but a much improved defensive team. The Cougars rank 82nd in defensive field goal percentage. Eastern Illinois is not only a terrible 3-point shooting team, too, but also horrendous from the free throw line. The Panthers haven't broken 60 points in three of their last four games. They rank fifth-from-the-bottom in offensive efficiency. So I find this total to be too high given the low quality of offenses and the matchup. |
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01-12-23 | Thunder +10 v. 76ers | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The Thunder have been double-digit underdogs four times this season - and covered each time Oklahoma City has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 25-16 for 61 percent. Oklahoma City has short revenge for a 115-96 home loss suffered to the 76ers on New Year's Eve. The Thunder have thrived in these spots going 19-8 in their last 27 (70 percent) away games when taking on an opponent with a winning home record. The 76ers are a bit fat and happy off consecutive easy victories against the Pistons. The Thunder are off a frustrating, 112-111, road loss to the Heat from Tuesday. Miami won by making all 40 of its free throws. It was the third straight game the Thunder have covered and fourth in their last five. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are playing at high levels. They can keep the Thunder in this game. |
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01-11-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -12.5 | 97-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm going to fade the injury-ravaged Suns following their huge upset win against the Warriors last night at Golden State. Phoenix stunned the Warriors despite missing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Cam Johnson, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne. Before that game, the Suns had lost nine of 10, including six in a row. The Nuggets are rolling, winning their last three games by an average of 19 points with all three victories coming by at least 13 points. Denver has held its last three foes to an average of 102.6 points. |
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01-11-23 | Abilene Christian -6 v. UT-Rio Grande Valley | Top | 86-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots. The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row. Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team. |
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01-10-23 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown +9.5 | 66-51 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Seton Hall tends to play to the opposition's level. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing foes that have a winning percentage below .400. Georgetown fits that category. The Hoyas are desperate for a victory having lost seven in a row. The Hoyas actually average more points per game than Seton Hall although they play far worse defense. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. |
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01-10-23 | Temple v. Tulsa UNDER 142 | 76-72 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Crunching numbers on this one and find this total to be too high. If you discount its last game against Tulane, Tulsa would be averaging 63.6 points in its last 10 games. Temple is averaging 64.1 points in its last six games taking out its game against Maryland Eastern Shore. The Over is 5-1-1 in Tulsa's last seven home games. Temple has been a big Under team on the road with the low side cashing 68 percent of the time during its past 68 away contests. |
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01-10-23 | Thunder v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The spot is right for the Heat to cover this number. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games. The only bad loss the Heat have during this span is to the Lakers on the road by three points. The other two defeats were to the 27-13 Nuggets on the road by five points and at home to the sizzling Nets by one point this past Sunday. There is no way Miami overlooks Oklahoma City, which is four games below .500. Not only have the Thunder won two in a row, but the Heat's next two games are both against the Bucks. So the Heat can not afford a home defeat to this lowly opponent. This is only the Thunder's third road matchup in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City is fat and happy having won its last two games, both at home against the Wizards and Mavericks, who were missing superstar Luka Doncic, two days ago. The Thunder have lost their last four road contests - falling to the Magic by 11, Hornets by 8, Cavaliers by 7 and Grizzlies by 21 for an average away loss of 11.7 points. Oklahoma City is 13-9 at home, but 5-13 on the road. |
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01-09-23 | Bucks +1.5 v. Knicks | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The Knicks are fat and happy, winners of four in a row. Note that two of those four victories were achieved against bottom-feeders San Antonio and Houston. New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Bucks have had all weekend to reflect about a shocking, 138-109, home loss to the lowly Hornets this past Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo was held to a season-low nine points. I see Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee bouncing back here. The Bucks are 4-1-1 ATS in their six visits to Madison Square Garden. |
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01-09-23 | South Carolina State v. Morgan State -9 | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
This number came up short, according to my power rankings so I'm on host Morgan State, which is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The Bears are playing their best ball of the season winning three in a row. South Carolina State is 3-14. The Bulldogs have been blown out in their last three games, losing by double-digits each time. They could be the worst defensive team in the nation giving up 86.3 points. |
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01-08-23 | Jazz +9 v. Grizzlies | 118-123 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
I respect the Grizzlies and they are hot with five straight wins. Utah is off a disappointing road loss to the Bulls last night. However, I see this as too many points for the Grizzlies to be laying. They were on the road for their last two games, having last played this past Thursday. I question their motivation and concentration being fat and happy right now. Utah is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Jazz, though, haven't lost any of those six games by more than eight points. They are 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. Utah also is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games against the Grizzlies, including winning and covering both matchups earlier this season. Those games were back in October so this isn't a huge revenge spot for Memphis. |
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01-07-23 | Jazz +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 118-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
Surprised the spread is so low here? Don't be. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot. Chicago just ended the 76ers' 11-game home win streak, beating Philadelphia, 126-112, on Friday night. The 76ers were minus injured Joel Embiid. The Bulls also ended the Nets' 12-game win streak with a 121-112 win this past Wednesday. Back-to-back impressive victories for the Bulls. But now they fly back to Chicago where they'll have the rested Jazz awaiting them. The Jazz halted a five-game losing streak by rolling past the Rockets, 131-114, on the road this past Thursday. Utah had lost its previous five games by an average of three points with the five defeats occurring by a combined 15 points. Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 49 points to lead Utah past Houston. Now Markkanen faces his former team. The Bulls are not only playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and fourth game in six days. The Bulls are reliant on their 3-point shooting. Zach LaVine hit 11 of 13 3-pointers against the 76ers. Utah, though, ranks in the top-10 in 3-point defense. |
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01-06-23 | Stanford v. California +9 | 70-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
California is beginning to play better going 2-1 in its last three games. The Bears have gotten a boost from transfer guard DeJuan Clayton, who has played in the last two games after missing the first 13 due to a hamstring injury. But mainly this is a fade on Stanford. The Cardinal aren't that much better than Cal, certainly not where this point spread is at. The Cardinal are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. They haven't played a hard schedule either. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 10 of the last 14. That's the way I'm going. |
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01-06-23 | Pistons v. Spurs -115 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Kudos to the Pistons for upsetting the Warriors, 122-119, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Saddiq Bey on Wednesday. I don't see the Pistons following that big win with another victory, though. Only once all season have the Pistons won consecutive games and that was back on Nov. 22-23. This marks Detroit's fifth road game in eight days. The Spurs return home after losing, 117-114, to the Knicks two days ago at Madison Square Garden. The Spurs are 2-1 in their last three home games beating the Jazz and Knicks while losing to the Mavericks by one point. The Pistons have failed to cover during their last four visits to San Antonio. |
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01-06-23 | Iona v. Marist +12.5 | 84-57 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
This is too many points for Iona to be laying in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle. Both teams are solid defensively giving up 66 points per game. This has been an underdog series with the team getting points covering the past five times. |
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01-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Magic UNDER 227 | Top | 123-115 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense about the Memphis Grizzlies because of star guard Ja Morant. But the Grizzlies are a strong defensive team. They give up the seventh-fewest points per game in the NBA and rank first in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Grizzlies have allowed just 105.5 points per game during their last four games. Orlando ranks 27th in scoring. The Magic have had their rotation messed up, too, in their last couple of games because of multiple suspensions stemming from an altercation against the Pistons last Thursday. Both teams played and won last night with the Grizzlies burying the Hornets by 24 points on the road and the Magic defeating the Thunder by 11 as a one-point home 'dog. So I'm not expecting a fast tempo. The Magic are below average in terms of pace. The Magic are the best defensive team the Grizzlies have faced during their past couple games. Memphis is off games against the Kings, who rank 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and Hornets, who rank 28th in scoring defense. Orlando relies heavily on Paolo Banchero, its leading scorer. The Grizzlies have a number of good defenders - Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams - who can bother Banchero. |
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01-04-23 | Hawks +2 v. Kings | Top | 120-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode. They've lost four in a row. Two of those losses were in heart-breaking fashion. One was a double overtime road loss to the Warriors in their last game played two days ago. The other was a one-point loss to the sizzling Nets. The Kings return to Sacramento off a 117-115 road win against the Jazz on Tuesday night, scoring the winning basket with 0.4 seconds to play. The Kings have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Hawks have won the last three meetings between the two teams, including scoring a 115-106 home win on Nov. 23. |
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01-04-23 | Illinois -145 v. Northwestern | 60-73 | Loss | -145 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
Illinois has been up and down this season owning wins against UCLA and Texas while losing by 15 points at home to Penn State and falling to Missouri, 93-71. But I see the Illini showing up here against Northwestern, a team they have beaten eight straight times. I don't trust Northwestern once Big Ten Conference play gets going. The Wildcats didn't look good in a 73-57 home loss to Ohio State this past Sunday. |
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01-04-23 | Evansville +14.5 v. Missouri State | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
I just see this as too many points for Missouri State to be laying given the spot and series history. The underdog has covered 69 percent of the last 27 meetings. Missouri State is in a letdown spot after a 52-49 win against Drake on New Year's Day in perhaps its biggest win of the season. The Purple Aces have yet to win in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. They should play hard here. |
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01-04-23 | Iowa State +4 v. Oklahoma | 63-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa State's defensive pressure should keep the Cyclones in this one - if not pulling the outright upset. The Cyclones are playing well with a three-game win streak. They rank ninth in scoring defense giving up just 57.3 points per game, while forcing 20.8 turnovers a game. That's the most among major-conference schools. Oklahoma has a minus 1.9 turnover margin, which is the worst in the Big 12. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and is second in the country with a plus 7.8 turnover margin. |
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01-03-23 | Kings v. Jazz UNDER 243 | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The teams just met this past Friday in Sacramento. The Kings won, 126-125, for a combined total of 251. So why now go Under in the rematch? The shooting in that Friday game was unbelievable. The Jazz shot 55 percent from the floor and made 25 of 30 free throws. The Kings shot 56 percent from the field while making 12 of 30 3-pointers. Both defenses are below average. Neither, though, is bottom-six. I expect adjustments to be made following that game five days ago. Kings coach Mike Brown has a respected defensive mind. The Jazz rank eighth in 3-point defense. So I don't expect the Kings to make 40 percent of their 3-pointers like they did Friday. The Under has cashed in five of the Kings' last six road games. This is Sacramento's fifth game in eight days and is being played in Utah's high altitude. So I don't believe the Kings will be that up-tempo. |
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01-03-23 | Mississippi State +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 53-87 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country. Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes. |
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01-02-23 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.5 v. Alabama A&M | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Other than perhaps Grambling State, the Southwestern Athletic Conference isn't very good at all. So my eyebrows are raised when I see one team favored by so much against another team. Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama A&M are each 4-9. I have them close to even power rating-wise. So I see this as too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying. Arkansas Pine Bluff is the better defensive team ranking 207th allowing 69.6 points a game. Alabama A&M gives up 76.8 points a game, which ranks the Bulldogs 338th. The Golden Lions are above average in 3-point defense. That's a key because the Bulldogs' strength is 3-point accuracy. The Golden Lions are 5-1 ATS the past six times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulldogs are 6-13 ATS the past 19 times when facing a foe with a below 40 percent winning percentage. |
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01-02-23 | Bulls v. Cavs -4 | 134-145 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
The teams just met this past Saturday night in Chicago. The Bulls were 5-1 in their last six games heading into that matchup while the Cavaliers had lost three in a row. The Cavaliers held off the Bulls, 103-102, despite not having Evan Mobley and Darius Garland. Donovan Mitchell had an off-game shooting 5-of-16 from the floor. Yet Cleveland still won. I like the Cavaliers to cover this margin even if they are missing Mobley and Garland again. It's a bonus if either of them plays. Mitchell should shoot a lot better, too. The difference is defense. The Cavaliers are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA holding foes to 106.2 points. The Bulls rank 18th giving up 114.8 points a game. The Cavaliers have been big money-makers at home going 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home contests. |
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12-31-22 | Cavs -138 v. Bulls | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers have lost three in a row - just surrendering a season-high 135 points to the Pacers this past Thursday - and aren't likely to have Darius Garland. The Bulls are playing their best ball winning five of their last six games. Yet the Bulls are home 'dogs to the Cavaliers? What gives? It's the NBA where things on the surface don't always make sense. The oddsmaker knows what he's doing. So I'm on the Cavaliers, who are in obvious stop-the-pain mode. The Cavaliers' two other losses during their losing streak were against the Raptors and sizzling Nets. They remain the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. Cleveland is giving up nearly nine fewer points per game than Chicago. The Cavaliers buried the Bulls, 128-96, in Chicago without Garland back on Oct. 22. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. They also carry a higher fatigue rating than the Cavaliers being in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. |