Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-18-22 | Pistons +15.5 v. Warriors | 86-102 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Golden State can't be laying this many points considering its injury situation and current form. This also is a bad spot for the Warriors, returning home after a four-game road trip. This is Golden State's fifth game in eight days. The Warriors are 2-5 in their last seven games. This is their worst stretch by far. They are off a 20-point loss to the Timberwolves this past Sunday. Golden State is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day's rest. Draymond Green is out. Stephen Curry is questionable with a sore hand. Klay Thompson is back, but he remains very rusty shooting 35.7 percent from the field in four games since returning. Detroit had been playing well, especially star rookie Cade Cunningham, winning three of four until getting blown out at home to the Suns this past Sunday. Cunningham was having a great game, but was thrown out 25 minutes into the game for technical fouls. It was a humbling experience for the youthful Pistons. They should learn from that and be prepared to give the Warriors a tough battle here. |
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01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I don't think the Knicks should be a home 'dog to the Timberwolves. New York couldn't get awake for yesterday's early-start Martin Luther King home game against the Hornets losing by 10 points after trailing by as many as 23 points. Look for the Knicks to be more awake for this game after Monday's embarrassment. Prior to that loss to the Hornets, the Knicks had won five straight at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout victories against the Mavericks and Spurs. The Timberwolves are looking good to the oddsmaker right now because they just rolled past the short-handed Warriors, 119-99, at home this past Sunday night. Keep in mind, though, that before that victory Minnesota had lost and failed to cover consecutive road games against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. |
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01-17-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State +6.5 | 81-56 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rebels under first-year head coach Kevin Kruger aren't strong enough to lay this mid-range number on the road against a San Jose State that is better than perceived. The Spartans are much improved at 7-7 than they were last season when they went 5-16, including 2-12 in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels are a middle-of-the-road Mountain West Conference team hoping to get an NIT berth. San Jose State is 8-5 ATS in its lined games. The Spartans have played their best ball at home going 5-2 ATS. The Rebels are an unimpressive 5-10 ATS. They have been inconsistent all season and are 0-2 SU and ATS in their two true road games losing to SMU and San Francisco by an average of 20 points. This is UNLV's first away game since Dec. 4. |
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01-17-22 | Thunder +11.5 v. Mavs | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Dallas is 8-1 in its last nine games after a 108-92 home win against Orlando. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis were both in Dallas' lineup for the first time since Dec. 10. Now the Mavericks draw the Thunder, a bottom feeder that is 1-6 in their last seven games and 0-2 versus Dallas this season with both losses coming in Oklahoma City. Safe to say the Mavericks are in a fat and happy state. They host the Raptors in a bigger game on Wednesday. Oklahoma City, though, is very dangerous in this role going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times as an underdog, including covering seven of their last nine road contests. The key for the Thunder is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He's been on fire averaging 28.7 points, eight assists and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 52.5 percent from the field during his past three games. |
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01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Utah has lost four in a row. Denver is off a 133-96 beatdown of the Lakers last night. So are you surprised the Jazz are such a strong road favorite? Don't be. The oddsmaker knows what he's doing. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Jazz and they have star center Rudy Gobert to help them achieve this. Utah hasn't played in four days. Gobert is as valuable to his team as any player. The Jazz didn't have Gobert, who was in COVID-19 protocol, during their current four-game losing streak. Gobert is back. The Jazz are rested, prepared and anxiously pointing to this game. They catch the Nuggets fat and happy after Denver buried the Lakers, 133-96, last night. |
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01-16-22 | Rockets v. Kings UNDER 240.5 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
These just met two days ago in Sacramento and the Kings won, 126-114, shooting 50 percent from the floor. Neither team is good defensively. That's fully acknowledged. But familiarity should help the defensive effort today. The Rockets know they have to improve their pick-and-roll defense against the Kings. It's something they are well aware of. The Kings had held their previous three opponents to 109.3 points before giving up 114 to the Rockets on Friday. Another plus for the Under is the Rockets will have rookie center Alperen Sengun back. He's a high-energy, defensive-minded big man. |
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01-16-22 | Canisius v. Manhattan -4 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
It's a limited Sunday slate of college basketball games. But there is one play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference that merits an investment. Manhattan is better on both sides of the ball against Canisius. The Golden Griffins could be the worst team in the MAAC. They are 5-10 overall and have lost seven straight road games. The Golden Griffins are 0-7 away from home this season with an average loss of 12.2 points. The closest they've come on the road is seven points. The Jaspers are 8-4. They have the better offensive and defensive statistics. I look for them to cover a number that I believe opened too short. |
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01-15-22 | Arkansas +7 v. LSU | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Arkansas' explosive attack, which averages 80.5 points a game, faces a very strong defense here. But I see the Razorbacks hanging in. The Razorbacks have cut down on their turnovers, which is crucial in this matchup. LSU's intensity could be down after victories against Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida during the last 11 days. The Tigers aren't likely to have starting point guard Xavier Pinson. He's doubtful with a knee injury.
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01-15-22 | NC-Greensboro v. Mercer UNDER 132 | 49-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Greensboro is strong not only in defensive field goal percentage, but rebounding. That's going to hurt Mercer, which is a perimeter shooting team. Greensboro only averages 64.1 points, which ranks 318th. The tempo is going to be very slow here, too. Both teams like to play at a slow pace. Given these ingredients, look for an Under.
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01-14-22 | Fresno State -112 v. UNLV | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
This one comes down to defense. Fresno State gives up 10 fewer points per game than UNLV. The Bulldogs ranks fourth in the in nation defensively holding foes to 55.9 points. The Bulldogs have been playing well covering seven of their last nine. This has been a road team series with the visitor covering the past six times. Fresno State also has defeated UNLV in seven of the past 10 meetings.
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01-14-22 | Cavs v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The timing is right to buy low on the Spurs in this home spot. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mode saddled with a four-game losing streak. The Spurs are off a 128-124 loss to the Rockets two days ago, which opened their seven-game homestand. Dejounte Murray could be the most underrated player in the NBA. The Spurs certainly are capable of winning this game straight-up. There's the chance their rotation could be bolstered if Derrick White and Doug McDermott return today from COVID-19 protocol. The Cavaliers are much improved. But they are far from elite. Their 111-91 victory against Utah on Wednesday comes with an asterisk as the Jazz were missing several players, including their star center and key to their team, Rudy Gobert. This marks Cleveland's fifth road game in eight days. The Cavaliers close their road trip tomorrow at Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers had opened their road swing beating shorthanded Portland. They then lost by 14 to the Warriors, nipped the lowly Kings by one point before knocking off Utah. Cleveland is 4-5 in its last nine games, 2-6-1 ATS. |
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01-13-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nets | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City lost on the road to the Wizards, 122-118, two days ago. But the Thunder enjoyed their finest offensive game of the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander broke out of his shooting slump with 32 points. The underrated Gilgeous-Alexander can make the Thunder a dangerous road foe if he's on his game. Oklahoma City has covered 23 of its last 32 road games. Brooklyn returned home in the wee hours Thursday morning after a highly-satisfying late Wednesday victory on the road against the Bulls, 138-112. Kyrie Irving won't play today. Kevin Durant might get rested, too, although I still like the Thunder in this spot figuring Durant is going to play. The Nets haven't won two in a row in nearly a month. Brooklyn also has been very mediocre at home going 11-10. The Nets are 1-5 in their last six home contests with the lone victory during this span occurring in overtime to the Spurs. Going back to last season, the Nets are 4-17 ATS as a home favorite. |
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01-13-22 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
As the Big Ten season winds into mid-January defenses start getting more intense. Teams make that extra pass. Play slows down. That's the vision I have in this marquee Big Ten battle between 13th-ranked Wisconsin and 16th-ranked Ohio State. I don't see either team reaching 70 points. Therefore I believe this total has been set too high. Ohio State beat the Badgers, 73-55, at home on Dec. 11. That game fell six points below the closing total of 134. Since then, Wisconsin has put together its best basketball winning five in a row. The Badgers have momentum and revenge. That's a tough combination. Wisconsin won't have a minus 21 rebounding line against the Buckeyes this time around either. Ohio State managed only 51 points against Indiana in its last road game a week ago. But Wisconsin's offense can't be trusted. Aside from Johnny Davis, the Badgers don't have many reliable scorers. The Badgers have major offensive inconsistencies. They are at their best scoring inside. Ohio State, though, protects the rim well. The Buckeyes average 5.2 blocks. The Badgers are a terrible 3-point shooting team ranking 322nd making fewer than 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. Discounting their last game against Northwestern, the Buckeyes have held their last four Big Ten opponents to an average of 64.5 points. |
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01-12-22 | Nets v. Bulls -121 | 138-112 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
The Bulls are healthy. That makes them dangerous. Chicago has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Bulls have covered five of their last six home games. The price is cheap enough to back the Bulls at home against the Nets, who are playing for the fourth time in six days and just flew in from Portland yesterday. Brooklyn has failed to cover in its last seven games going 2-5 SU during this span with one of the victories coming at home in overtime against the Spurs. The Nets aren't nearly as healthy as the Bulls. James Harden and Kyrie Irving are both questionable. So is Nic Claxton. LaMarcus Aldridge is out. |
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01-12-22 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 132.5 | 81-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech is in stop-the-pain mode losers of seven of its last eight games. Scoring has been a problem for the Yellow Jackets, but their defense has been solid. Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 65.5 points in their last six games. No opponent has reached 70 points against the Yellow Jackets during this span. Boston College is a slow-paced, defensive-minded team under new coach Earl Grant. The Eagles have to win with defense, too, as they rank 288th in scoring and 267th in field goal shooting. |
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01-12-22 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 210.5 | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
The teams just met two days ago and the Celtics won a defensive battle, 101-98, in overtime. Indiana shot 38 percent from the field. The Pacers missed a lot of easy shots. Celtics defensive ace Marcus Smart played 23 minutes in that game. Smart is questionable for this matchup. The Celtics know they have to step up on the offensive end. Boston had played the defensive-minded Knicks in back-to-back games prior to meeting Indiana. The Pacers are a much worse defensive team than the Knicks. |
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01-11-22 | Oklahoma State +3 v. West Virginia | 60-70 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
I was impressed with Oklahoma State beating then ranked No. 14 Texas, 64-51, against Texas this past Saturday. I don't see a letdown. Instead I'm going to ride the Cowboys, who have momentum and are playing well now. Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS the past 12 times it has been a road 'dog. West Virginia came back from a 40-27 halftime deficit to defeat Kansas State, 71-68, at home this past Saturday failing to cover as 8 1/2-point favorites. The Mountaineers had lost to Texas, 74-59, in their previous game. |
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01-11-22 | DePaul +7 v. Marquette | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Marquette isn't as bad as it looked early in the Big East Conference, but the Golden Eagles aren't as good as their recent performances - blowout victories against Georgetown and Providence - may indicate. On the flip side, DePaul isn't as bad as its four-game losing streak may appear. The Blue Demons have lost their last two games to Villanova and St. John's. Certainly no shame in that. Overall, DePaul is 9-5 while Marquette is 10-6. So there's line value with DePaul. The Blue Demons also match up well to Marquette because of their height and superior rebounding. The Golden Eagles give up a lot of easy inside shots. The Blue Demons are the 17th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation. The Golden Eagles can't get anything going in transition without controlling the boards. Marquette hasn't been good as chalk either, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when favored. |
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01-10-22 | Spurs v. Knicks UNDER 212.5 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been struggling on the road averaging 104.3 points during their last six away contests. Now they face a tough Knicks defense that ranks sixth in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The Under is 14-6-2 during the Spurs' last 22 road matchups. New York, however, ranks 27th in scoring. The Knicks are averaging only 95.3 points during their last eight games. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the Knicks have hosted the Spurs.
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01-10-22 | Bucks -128 v. Hornets | 99-103 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
The Hornets caught the Bucks at the right time when the teams met this past Saturday. The Bucks had just knocked off the Nets the night before and were in a flat spot. The result was a 114-106 Charlotte win. Oh, yes, the normally strong Bucks bench produced just five points. I don't see that happening again. So give me the vastly superior team in a rapid revenge spot. |
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 123-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Kudos to the Heat for beating the Trail Blazers, 115-109, this past Wednesday in their last game. However, I don't see the Heat keeping up with the Suns today. This is Miami's fifth of a six-game road trip and the team has 12 players on its illness/injury report list, including Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile the Suns are expected to get reinforced with Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee. All are off the COVID-19 list. Ayton is the Suns' leading rebounder and No. 2 scorer. The Suns own the best record in the NBA at 30-8. They are playing well with three straight wins and covers, winning by an average of 22 points during this span. The Suns shouldn't lack intensity since they won't play again until Tuesday and won't be home again until Jan. 22. |
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01-08-22 | Northern Iowa +6 v. Missouri State | Top | 85-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has looked good in its last two games, blowout victories against Evansville and Valparaiso. The Panthers have the outside shooting, especially from 3-point range, to hang tight with high-scoring Missouri State, which has a below average 3-point defense. Northern Iowa has dominated the series winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six of the past seven. The Panthers have the frontcourt size to win the rebounding battle, which would prove pivotal. |
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01-08-22 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Rutgers | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Nebraska is far from being a Big Ten power, but the Cornhuskers have been hanging in against elite Big Ten opponents. The Cornhuskers took Ohio State to overtime and they also covered against Michigan State this past Wednesday. Now the Cornhuskers drop down in class to face Rutgers - and they catch the Scarlet Knights in a letdown spot. Rutgers is coming off a 75-67 home win against Michigan. It was the first time the Scarlet Knights have defeated the Wolverines. Nebraska had no problem with Rutgers last season winning, 72-51. |
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01-08-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | 51-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Texas is 11-2, but the Longhorns have been fortunate to face Big 12 opponents that have been dealing with COVID-19 problems. Oklahoma State is battle tested having just played Kansas and Houston. The Cowboys have the size, right tempo and talent to spring the upset. This has been an underdog series lately, too, with the 'dog covering four the last five times. |
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01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Butler is being too undervalued here after looking bad during the second half of its, 71-56, home loss to Seton Hall this past Tuesday. The 'dog has covered four of the past five times in this series. Xavier has to deal with a rust factor having not played since Dec. 21. Butler is the 31st-ranked defensive team in the country. This figures to be a low-possession type game where every point matters. That's evident by the low total. I can't see Xavier producing an ''A'' game, which will be needed to cover this mispriced point spread. |
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01-07-22 | Mavs -130 v. Rockets | 130-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Luka Doncic nor Kristaps Porzingis to play. It's an added bonus if Doncic were to suit up after injuring his ankle this past Wednesday in Dallas' 99-82 win against the Warriors. It doesn't matter to me. I'll take the Mavericks against the Rockets in this price range. Dallas has won four in a row. The Mavericks have held their last five foes to an average of 89.6 points. The Mavericks rank third in the NBA defensively. The Rockets are 29th defensively surrendering an average of 12 more points per game than Dallas. The Rockets are fat and happy after upsetting the Wizards as a 7-point road 'dog two days ago. Before that game, the Rockets had lost and failed to cover eight in a row with all of the losses coming by double-digits. The Mavs just played their best defensive game of the year in beating Golden State. I don't see them just giving it back by losing to the lowly Rockets.
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01-07-22 | Jazz v. Raptors -11 | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
The Jazz have won 10 straight road victories and own the second-best record in the NBA at 28-10. Yet the Jazz find themselves double-digit road underdogs to the Raptors. Huh? What gives? Hint: It's not just because the Raptors have won four in a row and are back to full strength. The Jazz are decimated heading into this game. Among those out for Utah are Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley and Joe Ingles. The Jazz could be missing others. Injuries and COVID. Welcome to NBA 2022. The Raptors should take this game seriously, too, playing with revenge for a November loss to Utah and being off the next day.
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
The dynamics are in place for Indiana to beat Ohio State in this marquee Big Ten matchup. The Hooisers are home following a 61-58 road loss to Penn State this past Sunday. Indiana is 9-0 at Assembly Hall with seven of those victories occurring by double-digits. Ohio State got past Nebraska, 87-79, in overtime this past Sunday. That was the Buckeyes' first game since Dec. 11 because of COVID-19 issues. Indiana is a bad matchup for Ohio State at this stage of the Buckeyes' season as they try to round back into shape. Indiana has a size advantage and should control the boards especially if Kyle Young, the Buckeyes' top defensive rebounder, can't play after missing the Nebraska game due to illness not related to COVID. |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers OVER 216 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Miami ranks fourth defensively in the NBA. The Heat have been a strong defensive team for years. That's not the case right now, though, with the Heat missing injured players Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Dewayne Dedmon and Markieff Morris. Miami has lost its hard-nosed, defensive intensity without these key players, especially Butler. Miami is giving up an average of 113 points during its last four games. The Trail Blazers have scorers to take advantage with Damian Lillard, underrated Norman Powell and emerging Anfernee Simons. Portland is an above average scoring team, but is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Trail Blazers rank 27th in points allowed, 29th in defensive field goal percentage and 30th in defensive field goal percentage. The Trail Blazers are in especially bad defensive form surrendering an average of 130.5 points during their last four games. Miami is averaging 115 points in its last four games. |
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01-05-22 | Syracuse +2.5 v. Miami-FL | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
I believe Miami is overrated having played a weak schedule. I'm willing to test that theory by backing Syracuse, which is off a bad 74-69 home loss to Virginia this past Saturday. Orange coach Jim Boeheim ripped his team following that defeat. I see Syracuse responding to Boeheim's critical comments with a strong effort here. Miami is 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times as a favorite. The Hurricanes have fared poorly through the years when dealing against the Orange's vaunted 2-3 zone defense failing to exceed 70 points during the last 10 meetings.
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01-05-22 | Nebraska +15.5 v. Michigan State | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Michigan State has won seven in a row. The Spartans could be looking past 6-8 Nebraska since they play arch-rival Michigan on Saturday. The Cornhuskers took then No. 13 ranked Ohio State into overtime before losing in their last game this past Sunday. Nebraska has the athleticism to bother the Spartans with their pressing defense. The Cornhuskers displayed this against the Buckeyes. The Spartans weren't sharp in their last game against Northwestern this past Sunday. MIchigan State is 1-5 ATS the last six times going against a sub .500 opponent.
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01-04-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +8 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
I'm expecting a good performance from the Pelicans here now that their two best players, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, have returned to the lineup. Both played last night in a 115-104 home loss to the Jazz. Each was rusty, not shooting well. The rust should be off now. |
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01-04-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 137.5 | Top | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The season-long defensive statistics are bad for these two teams. But there is more than meets the eye. Eastern Michigan is averaging just 57.5 points in its last two games decided in regulation. The Eagles are playing at a much slower tempo than they were at the beginning of the season. Western Michigan is averaging only 57.6 points during its past six games. The Broncos' defensive numbers are artificially high because of the number of top offenses they have played, including Iowa, Michigan State and Notre Dame. A slow pace game here is fine by the Broncos. |
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01-03-22 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The Nuggets, like most NBA teams, are dealing with COVID issues. But they still have Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon just returned to the lineup following a hamstring injury. Denver also catches Dallas in a vulnerable spot. So I'm going to go ahead and take the points with the road 'dog. The Mavericks got Luka Doncic back in their 95-86 road win against the Thunder on Sunday. Doncic had missed 10 games. He was playing for the first time in 23 days, logging 31 minutes wearing a knee brace. Not surprisingly, he felt sore after the game. So Mavs coach Jason Kidd has to be careful how he uses Doncic in this back-to-back spot. The Nuggets are the more rested team. This is their second game in six days. Dallas is in action for the fifth time in eight days. The Mavericks just concluded a five-game road trip so their concentration level could be off returning home following the holidays. Dallas hasn't been a good spread home team failing to cover in 14 of its last 20 home games. |
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01-01-22 | CS-Northridge v. UC San Diego UNDER 132 | 64-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Cal State Northridge has gone Under in seven of its nine board games this season. It's not a fluke. The Matadors play at a very slow tempo and are inept on offense ranking 343th in scoring at 60.5 points a game and 345th in field goal percentage at 38.7. Much of this has to do with Trent Johnson, who is in his first season as the Matadors coach. San Diego is an above average defensive team. But the Tritons aren't anything great offensively averaging 72 points. They are well below average on the offensive glass. |
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01-01-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Pistons | 116-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
The Pistons are an NBA team in name only. They may have been the worst team in the league - and that was before injuries and COVID-19 chewed up nearly their entire roster. Aside from Saddiq Bey and Hamidou Diallo, the Pistons lack NBA-qualified players. This is reflected in Detroit losing 18 of its last 19 games. The two teams just met six days ago. Final score: San Antonio 144, Detroit 109. The Pistons couldn't stop any of the Spurs. The Spurs aren't likely to win by 35 points again, but they should easily prevail by double digits. San Antonio won't enter this matchup overconfident after losing, 118-105, to the Grizzlies on the road last night. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Spurs either as they had been idle for four days prior to that game. |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Raptors were one of many NBA teams ravaged by COVID. But now they should be back at nearly full strength getting back Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes. That's a combined scoring mark of nearly 55 points. These key cogs will join Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr. and Malachi Flynn, who returned in the Raptors' last game three days ago, a 114-109 home loss to the 76ers. The Raptors are rejuvenated now and should be sky high being home to take on the Clippers, who are in a flat spot after beating the Celtics, 91-82, on the road two days ago. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS following a point spread cover. The Clippers are minus their two best players with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both out. They also are missing Nicholas Batum and possibly Reggie Jackson. The Clippers have yet to get it together this season. They were 1-5 before upsetting the Celtics. |
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12-30-21 | Bucks -14 v. Magic | 136-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
This would be a huge mismatch if the teams were fully healthy. But they're not. Milwaukee not only is vastly superior - an "A'' level team to Orlando's "F'' level - but the Bucks are healthy and the Magic are down numerous rotation players because of COVID. The Bucks have won 10 straight versus Orlando, including all three meetings this season. Milwaukee has won these games by an average of 19 points. The two teams just met two days ago. The Bucks built a 29-point lead and sailed to a 127-110 victory. It was the Bucks' 15th win in their last 20 games. Yes, garbage time could be a problem if the Bucks build another huge early lead as expected. But the Bucks have tremendous team depth, have everyone healthy except Brook Lopez and are idle on Friday. So they should be able to maintain a healthy advantage throughout the game. The Magic may have motivation with triple in-season revenge, but they lack the bodies and talent to stay close. Orlando has lost by double-digits during five of its last six losses. |
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12-29-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 99-104 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
The timing is right for the Grizzlies to continue their winning ways. Memphis is 7-3 in its last 10 games and has its star guard, Ja Morant, back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games. The Lakers snapped a five-game losing streak outscoring the Rockets, 132-123, last night. LeBron James played nearly 40 minutes and Russell Westbrook logged nearly 35 minutes against the Rockets. The Lakers have already used 19 different lineups. They are down four rotation players due to COVID protocols along with being without injured Anthony Davis. The Lakers are 3-12 ATS versus above .500 teams. The Grizzlies have covered five of their past six home games against the Lakers.
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12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
The Pacers have covered four of the last five times they've hosted the Hornets. I expect them to cover this short number, too. Indiana has played far better at home than on the road this season. The Pacers are 5-1 in their last six home contests. During this span they beat the Wizards by six, Knicks by 20, Mavericks by 13, lost to the Warriors by just two, defeated the Pistons by nine and rolled the Rockets by 12. The Pacers have good backcourt depth if Malcolm Brogdon can't play. Indiana's frontline is boosted by the return of Domantas Sabonis. The Hornets are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
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12-28-21 | Thunder v. Kings -5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Kings provided quite a surprise to their interim coach, Alvin Gentry, on his first game back from a COVID-19 related absence this past Sunday. Sacramento was whipped, 127-102, at home by Memphis. A livid Gentry called it the most disappointing performance he's had in his 34 years in the NBA. Gentry totally ripped his Kings. So I want the Kings going for me in what I anticipate should be an all-out effort. Oklahoma City is playing well, but the Thunder are one of the weaker teams in the NBA. They are fat and happy after upsetting the Pelicans at home in their last game two days ago. De'Aaron Fox returned from missing four games due to COVID protocols. He didn't play well against the Grizzlies, but he should have gotten the rust off. Fox is the Kings' best player and makes them a better team.
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12-28-21 | Knicks -2.5 v. Wolves | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
I want to fade the Timberwolves after they rallied to beat the Celtics, 108-103, at home last night. The Timberwolves accomplished this task minus their three best players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. I don't see a repeat performance for Minnesota playing without rest and down seven players all together because of COVID-19 protocols. The Knicks last played on Saturday when they rolled past the Hawks, 101-87, on the road with Kemba Walker having his best game of the season.
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12-27-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Hornets | 99-123 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
This is the Rockets' fifth straight road game. But it's their first game in four days. They draw the Hornets playing at home for the first time in 17 days. Charlotte recently returned from a six-game road trip. It's tough playing that first game at home from a concentration standpoint after being away for so long. The Rockets' rotation depth is better with the return of Jalen Green. The Hornets, meanwhile, have been missing a key rotation player, Cody Martin. The underrated Martin has missed the last three games because of COVID-19 safety protocol. The Hornets are simply a .500 team. I don't think they're good enough to cover a mid-size point spread given this spot. |
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12-27-21 | Rockets v. Hornets UNDER 235.5 | 99-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Neither team is good defensively. But circumstances, current form and a very high total make the Under a worthy play. The teams met earlier this season on Nov. 27. The Rockets won, 146-43, in overtime. Maybe the oddsmaker considered that in making this total so large. But things are different now. Each team has been idle for the past four days. That should mean some offensive rust. The Rockets have been held to 106 or fewer points in four of their past six games. The Hornets held the Nuggets to 107 points in their last game. That was the fewest points Charlotte allowed in nearly a month. Note the series history, too. The Under has cashed in nine of the past 11 meetings in Charlotte. |
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers +4 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This a battle of two disappointing, injury/illness racked teams. Yes, the Clippers are missing several key players, including Paul George. But the Nuggets also are minus important players, including Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and possibly Aaron Gordon. So I see no reason why the Nuggets should be this high of road chalk. The Nuggets will have the best player on the court, Nikola Jokic. The Clippers have the big body depth to defend him, though, with a rejuvenated Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac. Denver is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Clippers have been up and down. They won four in a row before losing three straight. The Clippers halted that losing skid in their last game, a 105-89 road win against the Kings four days ago. The Clippers are 21-6-1 ATS when playing on three or more day's rest. They also are 9-3 ATS the last 12 times as a home 'dog. |
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12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 212 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Certainly the situation spells Under with the Hawks and Knicks meeting early Christmas morning after being idle Christmas Eve. The Hawks don't have any firepower. A COVID-19 outbreak has taken away all of Atlanta's explosive scorers, including Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and Kevin Huerter. De'Andre Hunter also is out due to a wrist injury. That leaves the Hawks with very little firepower as evidenced by their scoring 98 points in each of their past two games. The Knicks are going to be stressing defense after Tom Thibodeau ripped them for giving up 124 points to the Wizards in a 124-117 loss this past Thursday. |
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12-23-21 | Hornets v. Nuggets -2.5 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
The Hornets conclude their six-game, 11-day road trip in Denver's high altitude. Key rotation player Cody Martin is out for Charlotte and Gordon Hayward is questionable with a back injury. The Nuggets won't be feeling sorry for the Hornets, who have lost their last three games by nine points to the Trail Blazers, 31 to the Suns and 10 to the Jazz. Denver is off a 108-94 road loss to the Thunder where the Nuggets were 6 1/2-point favorites. Previous to that game, though, Denver hadn't played since Friday. So the Nuggets shouldn't be rusty like they were against the Thunder. They also shouldn't be fatigued either since nobody played more than 27 minutes last night. Charlotte is 10-21 ATS the past 31 times as an underdog. The Hornets have failed to cover during their last four visits to Denver. |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a big number, but the Suns are more than capable of covering it especially with Devin Booker back in the lineup. Phoenix has won its last three games by 20 points against the Wizards at home, defeated the Hornets by 31 at home and the Lakers on the road by 18. Those teams are all better than Oklahoma City. The Thunder actually is in a letdown spot after springing a 108-94 home upset win against the Nuggets last night for their third straight victory. It would not surprise me if the Thunder mailed this one in being the night before Christmas. The Suns are the third-highest scoring team in the league and rank fourth defensively. They've been the second best team in the NBA in defensive efficiency if you go by the last 10 games.
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12-22-21 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 132 | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Note this game is being played in Spokane, Wash., so it's a neutral site game. That's a plus for the Under. So is the defense of these teams. Boise State gives up the 29th fewest points in the country. Washington State ranks in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass. The Broncos have gone Under in nine of their last 12 games, while the Under is 6-1 in Washington State's last seven games. |
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12-21-21 | Southeastern Louisiana v. Iowa OVER 154.5 | Top | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Keegan Murray is back to full strength scoring 35 points against Utah State in the Hawkeyes' last game this past Saturday. That's bad news for Southeastern Louisiana and good news for the Over. Murray had been slowed by an ankle injury, which hampered his performance in a loss to Iowa State. The Over is 20-8 in Iowa's last 28 home games. A big factor for that lopsided figure to the Over is Iowa steamrolling weak opponents with a fast pace that doesn't let up the entire game. The Hawkeyes are averaging 95.1 points in seven home games this season. Southeast Louisiana plays fast, too. The Lions average 76.7 points and give up 74.4, which ranks 307th. |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is the revenge game of the year for Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies broke an NBA record for largest victory margin when they buried the Thunder, 152-179, at home on Dec. 2. The Thunder surely will be highly motivated. They have some confidence, too, after nipping the Clippers, 104-103, this past Saturday. Lugentz Dort, one of the more underrated players in the league, is back for the Thunder after being out with an ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times as an underdog. Memphis could be coming back to earth after falling, 105-100, to the Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Grizzlies were 10-1 going into that game. Memphis still is without injured Ja Morant. This will be the Grizzlies' fourth game in six days, too. So there's a fatigue issue with them. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Charlotte -11.5 | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Strength of schedule is huge here. Charlotte's last three games have been against Arkansas, Valparaiso and Wake Forest. Maryland Eastern Shore has played far easier opponents. So the 49ers are stepping way down in class. The 49ers are a far better shooting team than Maryland Eastern Shore both from the field and foul line. |
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12-19-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Duquesne +6.5 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened this total low and the marketplace has lowered it even more. That tells you points are going to be hard to come by. Duquesne has the inside game to make this a close game if not pull the outright upset. Cal Irvine is averaging only 58 points in its last two games. This game is at a neutral site. The Anteaters are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games when laying points.
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12-17-21 | Charlotte v. Wake Forest UNDER 141.5 | 79-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Wake Forest is a surprising 10-1. The Demon Deacons are strong favorites here. Wake Forest has been playing strong defense holding its last four opponents to an average of 62 points during regulation. Charlotte is a great free throw shooting team. The 49ers, though, are a mediocre scoring team ranking 277th averaging 70 points. This isn't a home game for Charlotte. The site is the Spectrum Center in Uptown, Charlotte. This is the home of the Charlotte Hornets. So neither team is familiar with the court, which is a plus for the Under. |
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12-17-21 | Bucks -128 v. Pelicans | Top | 112-116 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is my NBA Game of the Week. I don't think it's asking too much of the Bucks to beat the Pelicans without Giannis Antetokounmpo and possibly Khris Middleton, too. The Bucks blew out the Pacers, 114-99, without those two stars two days ago. Milwaukee is 13-3 in its last 16 games. The Bucks are much the superior defensive team, have a much deeper bench and have the better coach. New Orleans needed a 61-foot shot at the buzzer from Devonte' Graham to nip the Thunder in their last game two days ago. That was at Oklahoma City so the Pelicans will be traveling to New Orleans, too, for this game. |
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12-17-21 | Nuggets v. Hawks -3.5 | 133-115 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
A thin roster and fatigue are taking a toll on the Nuggets. Denver was blown out by 17 points at home against the Timberwolves two days ago. Now the Nuggets go on the road playing for the sixth time in 10 days. The Nuggets are down several rotation players. The Hawks, on the other hand, are in action for just the fourth time in 11 days. They are off a 111-99 win against the Magic, which was their fifth straight road victory. Atlanta is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Nuggets surrendered 124 points to Minnesota, the second-most they've allowed all season. The Hawks like to push tempo. That's bad for the Nuggets. Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last seven visits to Atlanta. The Nuggets also have failed to cover seven of the past nine times they've been 'dogs.
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12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake OVER 125.5 | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Jackson State is one of the lowest-scoring basketball teams in Division I. Drake, though, averages nearly 76 points per game. Contrasts like this are tough for an oddsmaker to make a total on. I believe they've made this total too low. The Bulldogs average 81.2 points in five home games. Their offense is much better than their defense. Drake ranks 310th in defensive field goal percentage. The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time the past 57 times Drake has been a home favorite. I'm going to ride that strong trend. |
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12-16-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Nets | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
I understand the Nets being favored at home. But they shouldn't be considering their COVID situation. This is who the Nets will be missing: James Harden, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre' Bembry - all starters - along with Bruce Brown, Jevon Carter, James Johnson and Paul Millsap. That leaves the Nets' thin bench with just three rookies. The Nets are going to encounter an angry 76ers team that is off an embarrassing, 101-96, home loss to the Heat last night. 76ers coach Doc Rivers ripped his team after that game. I'm expecting the 76ers to be fired up. They certainly are capable, having defeated the Warriors just five days ago. Joel Embiid is expected to play. But I still would like the 76ers even if he isn't considering the drastic situation the Nets are in. Brooklyn has failed to cover the last six times as a home favorite. |
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12-15-21 | New Mexico State v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
New Mexico State plays at a slow tempo. The Aggies aren't likely to speed things up either as a mid-sized road 'dog here. The Under has cashed 23 of the last 31 times New Mexico State has been an underdog. Washington State is off a buzzer-beater, 77-74, home loss to South Dakota State this past Saturday. Now the Cougars go against a much slower team. Both coaches are defensive-minded and the teams are strong on the defensive boards. So I'm expecting an Under.
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks +2 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Surprised the Bucks are a home 'dog to the Pacers? Don't be. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out and Khris Middleton also may miss this game because of a knee injury suffered against the Celtics this past Monday. Still, I want the Bucks going for me. The Bucks are off a bad 117-103 loss to the Celtics. They lost that game with Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Milwaukee has a deep bench that can withstand its two best players being out at home against a mediocre opponent. The Bucks' rotation gets a boost with defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo expected to make his season debut after being out with an ankle injury. This is just Indiana's second road game since Nov. 23. The Pacers lost to the Timberwolves in their last away matchup back on Nov. 29. Indiana is 3-10 on the road. The Bucks have won their last eight home contests. The Bucks also are 2-0 versus the Pacers this season winning those games by an average of 14 points. |
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12-15-21 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
There are a lot of unknown here - all of which could be positive for an Under. Luka Doncic is questionable. He's missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Anthony Davis has missed the last two games, too, because of a knee injury. He's also questionable. The Lakers aren't likely to have Talen Horton-Tucker and Malik Monk. They are in COVID-19 protocol. Those are two plus players for the Over. The Lakers are playing excellent defense lately holding their last four foes to an average of 99.7 points. Dallas is the No. 6 defensive team in the NBA. The Mavericks' last seven games have all gone Under. The Lakers' offense could be out of sync missing scorers Horton-Tucker and Monk. LA also was unable to practice on Tuesday because of COVID testing. |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This total is too high given the key injuries each team has. The Suns are going to be without Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton again. Those are Phoenix's two leading scorers. Phoenix is averaging just 102.5 points in its last four games. The Trail Blazers are without CJ McCollum, their second-leading scorer. Portland is averaging 99 points in its last five games. The Suns rank eighth in scoring defense and are fourth in defensive field goal percentage. This is the third meeting this season between the two teams so there should be familiarity, which is a plus for defense. |
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12-14-21 | North Carolina-Asheville -3.5 v. Tenn-Martin | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Asheville is on a nice 5-0-1 ATS covering run. I believe the oddsmaker opened the Bulldogs short in this one still not having a right read yet on this team. The Bulldogs are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 times they've been favored. Tennessee-Martin ranks 302nd in scoring defense permitting nearly 75 points a game. The Skyhawks have allowed at least 81 points in three of their last four games. They are on a four-game losing streak with the closest game being nine points during this span.
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State +35 v. LSU | 49-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Northwestern State certainly is going to take this in-state non-conference game more seriously than LSU. The Tigers are 9-0 and riding high. But they've been a little too sloppy with taking care of the ball to lay this huge of a number. The Demons are not good, but they should not be dominated on the boards. They also have better backcourt depth with Carvell Teasett back in the lineup. He played for the first time in the Demons' last game and scored nine points with five assists. |
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12-13-21 | Wizards +3.5 v. Nuggets | 107-113 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
The Wizards won't lack incentive here coming off an embarrassing 25-point home loss to the Jazz this past Saturday. It's a huge game for Washington's first-year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. He spent the previous six years as an assistant coach for the Nuggets. So he's extremely knowledgeable about the Nuggets in this non-conference matchup. Washington draws Denver at what should be an opportune time. The Nuggets just completed a seven-game, six-city road trip. They haven't been at home since Nov. 26. So their concentration level could be off having been away for so long. The Nuggets also could be minus two rotation players with Will Barton and Aaron Gordon questionable. |
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12-13-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. Pacers | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
The Warriors haven't lost two games in a row all season. They are the best team in the NBA. I look for them to bounce back strong against the Pacers after getting beat by the 76ers on the road two days ago. The Pacers have stepped up their game winning three in a row. Those victories were against slumping teams - Wizards, Knicks and Mavericks.
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12-12-21 | Miami-FL v. Fordham UNDER 141 | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Note this game is being played at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., a neutral court for both of these teams. This is a 1,200-mile trip for Miami and it's a very early start time. These are all pluses for the Under. So is Fordham being one of the participants. The Rams are a terrible shooting team both from the floor and free throw line despite playing a number of bad defenses. The Rams are defensive-minded and play at a slow tempo. Miami has been better on offense than defense, but the Hurricanes should be able to clamp down on this poor-shooting foe. The Hurricanes have held two of their last three foes to fewer than 60 points. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -3 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
No brilliant handicap here. Just a huge class difference. The Warriors are the best team in basketball with a 21-4 record. They rank first defensively and are No. 3 in scoring. The 76ers are 14-12 with a losing home record. They've been without superstar center Joel Embiid, but even with him they still aren't within two levels of Golden State. The teams met on Nov. 24 at Golden State and the Warriors won, 116-96. The 76ers didn't have Embiid and Tobias Harris in that game. They should have them here although Embiid is dealing with abdominal pain after just returning from the COVID-19 list. Sure Embiid and Harris bolster the 76ers a lot. Just not enough to keep them in this point spread range. The Warriors have been idle since Wednesday. They are 14-3 ATS during their last 17 games versus above .500 opponents so they haven't been just fattening up on bad teams. The 76ers have failed to cover in their last six home games. The game is being nationally televised by ABC so the Warriors should be pumped especially with Stephen Curry in pursuit of the all-time 3-point record. |
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12-11-21 | Minnesota +14 v. Michigan | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Michigan is good, but was overrated to begin the season. Minnesota is just the opposite. The Gophers entered the season with no expectations, but are 7-1 winning their first seven games. They hung in against 19th-ranked Michigan State in its Big Ten opener, losing 75-67. The Gophers split against Michigan last season. |
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12-11-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Butler UNDER 123.5 | 54-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Pace factors here. Both teams play extremely slow. They also aren't very good offensively either. Eastern Illinois averages 58.1 points. The Panthers are not only one of the worst shooting teams from the field, but they also are terrible from the free throw line where they rank 327th making 64.5 percent. Butler ranks 22nd defensively giving up 58 points a game. The Bulldogs, though, rank 300th in scoring at 64.8 points per game. Eastern Illinois guards well against the 3-pointer so Butler is going to have to work the clock in order to get good shots.
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
One thing's for sure here: The Lakers won't be taking the young, rebuilding Thunder for granted. This is the third meeting between the teams. The Lakers are 0-2 versus Oklahoma City blowing leads of 26 and 19 points. LA has been playing better after a disappointing November going 3-2 in its last five games. During this span, the Lakers blew out the Kings on the road and Celtics at home. They lost by four to the Clippers, who played their "A" game in that matchup, and last night were flat in a road loss to the Grizzlies. The Thunder return home winners of two straight road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. It's a rare situation where the Thunder are fat and happy. They also haven't been home in nine days so their focus could be off. Before their two-game road win streak, the Thunder had lost eight in a row, including a mind-boggling 73-point loss to the Grizzlies three games ago. |
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12-10-21 | DePaul v. Louisville UNDER 147 | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
First off, these are not huge scoring teams. DePaul is off to a 7-1 start under new coach Tony Stubblefield. But this is the Blue Demons' first road game and it comes at a tough venue. DePaul has been playing better defense lately holding its last four opponents to 68 points or fewer. I'm anticipating the Blue Demons to be very cautious here. The Blue Demons have gone Under the total in 13 of the last 17 times they've been a 'dog. Louisville ranks 45th in defensive field goal percentage. If you discount the 73 points the Cardinals gave up to powerful Michigan State, they are holding their last five foes to 61.6 points a game.
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12-10-21 | Murray State v. Memphis -10 | 74-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm going to lay the wood with Memphis State in a stop-the-pain situation. The Tigers have followed a five-game win streak to open the season with consecutive losses to Iowa State, Georgia and Mississippi. That didn't sit well with Tigers coach Penny Hardaway, who ripped his team. I see the Tigers responding in a big way and taking their frustrations out on Murray State, which is 3-8 ATS when playing above .500 opponents. The Racers are a high-scoring team, but they've played an easy schedule. Memphis has the balanced scoring to do well against the Racers' defense.
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12-09-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State +5.5 | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a huge in-state rivalry game. Iowa State is competitive now thanks to T.J. Otzelberger. He's done a fantastic coaching job. Iowa State is 9-0 after being 2-22 last season before Otzeleberger took over. The Cyclones have passed every test so far this season, including beating Creighton, 64-58, on the road this past Saturday. That halted a 25-game Iowa State road losing streak. Iowa is good. No doubt. But the Hawkeyes aren't elite as Big Ten losses to Purdue and Illinois show. The Hawkeyes were outrebounded, 52-23, by the Illini. That's a potential red flag. |
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12-09-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs -116 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
This spot sets up well for the Spurs. Denver is playing its sixth consecutive road game. This also is the Nuggets' fourth road game in six days. They escaped with an overtime victory against the lowly Pelicans last night. The Nuggets are basically playing an eight-man rotation. Their starters were forced to log big minutes against New Orleans last night. The Spurs had returned home to face the Knicks two days ago following a 2-1 West Coast trip. San Antonio had beaten Portland and Golden State before falling to the Suns in a close matchup. They laid an egg against the Knicks. Gregg Popovich should have the Spurs motivated for this revenge matchup especially now that the Spurs have settled in at home. |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 217.5 | 104-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have won five in a row since their star point guard Ja Morant suffered a knee injury. How are the Grizzlies doing this without their best player? Defense. Memphis has held its last five foes to an average of 90.2 points. The Mavericks have short revenge for a 97-90 home loss to the Grizzlies from last Saturday. Dallas was without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis in that loss. Both are expected to play here. Dallas is in stop-the-pain mode, too, losers of eight of its last 10. Doncic is a superstar, but the Mavericks are a defensive-minded team. They rank 25th in scoring, but give up the 12th-fewest points. Dallas has a great history of going Under in an underdog role with the Under cashing 22 of the past 30 times. I'm looking for another tight defensive battle here. |
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12-08-21 | Jazz v. Wolves +7 | Top | 136-104 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have shown major improvement this season going 7-1 from Nov. 17-Nov. 29. However, they are 0-3 in their last three games with road losses to the Wizards and Nets and then a bad home loss to the Hawks this past Monday. Minnesota is going to be up for this game. The Timberwolves aren't likely to get injured D'Angelo Russell back here, but Patrick Beverley is expected to play for the first time in six games. Russell and Beverley are Minnesota's two top point guards. Lack of ball movement hurt the Timberwolves in their loss to Atlanta. That should change with Beverley's return. Beverley also is a top-notch defender. He's one of the more unsung players in the NBA. The Timberwolves have the scorers to compete with Utah thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. Utah is fat and happy on a four-game win streak. The Jazz haven't been great in this role lately going 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a favorite and covering just one of their past five road games. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS the last eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. |
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12-08-21 | Utah v. TCU -2 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I like TCU's current form. The Horned Frogs are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and have cut down on their turnovers committing 10 or fewer during their last two games. TCU has held six of its seven opponents to fewer than 65 points. Utah isn't playing well. The Utes have failed to cover in their last three games as they continue to tinker with their rotation. They are averaging 68.6 points during their past five games. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Lakers going for me in this revenge spot and catching Boston fat and happy. The Lakers have begun to play better winning four of their last seven games as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook get more acquainted. The Celtics can't match that star power especially if Jaylen Brown has to miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain. The Lakers have been idle since Friday when they suffered a frustrating loss to the Clippers, 119-115. They have been pointing to this matchup since losing, 130-108, on the road to the Celtics on Nov. 19. Boston is off a 145-117 waltz against the Damian Lillard-less Trail Blazers this past Saturday. The Celtics have been up-and-down under first year head coach Ime Udoka. |
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12-07-21 | Knicks -2.5 v. Spurs | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Surprised the Knicks opened a road favorite against the Spurs? Don't be. Even though the Knicks are 1-4 in their last five games and have a losing record, the oddsmaker knows what he is doing. New York has gone against the Nuggets, Bulls, Nets, Hawks and Suns during its last five games. This is a step down in class and a stop-the-pain game for the Knicks. It's a good thing the Knicks are leaving New York after consecutive home losses. They are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road contests. The Knicks catch the Spurs returning home having yet to host a game this month. The Spurs are in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest after a hard-fought 108-104 road loss to the Suns last night. New York, on the other hand, had been idle the previous two days. The Spurs were riding a season-best four-game win streak until losing to the Suns. So their mental approach may be down. Same perhaps with their focus level having not been home since late November. |
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12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee UNDER 139.5 | Top | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
These are two excellent defenses. The total is this high because Texas Tech ranks 12th in the nation in scoring at 85.4. That is misleading, though, because the Red Raiders have played bad defenses, none of which ranked in the top 75 defensive-wise. Now they take on Tennessee, which allows just 62 points a game and ranks in the top five in defensive efficiency just like last season. The Red Raiders rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, too. This game is part of the Jimmy V. Classic tournament held at Madison Square Garden, which is a notorious venue to college players for its tough scoring backdrop. |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | 105-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
No Ja Morant, no problem for the Grizzlies. They are 4-0 since losing their star guard. I don't see that continuing, though, starting with this matchup. The Heat are 1-3 in their last four games. They were without superstar Jimmy Butler for all of their games. Butler is expected back from a tailbone injury for this game. That should make a huge difference. Worst case scenario is if Butler has to miss this game. Still, I would back the Heat even if Butler is out banking on Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Miami has played better at home going 6-3. This is the Grizzlies' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. Morant isn't the only Memphis player out. Underrated Kyle Anderson also is out with a back injury. |
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12-06-21 | Towson v. Kent State -6 | 73-58 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
I rate Kent State as a dozen points better than Towson - and that's on a neutral floor. The Golden Flashes are much stronger than the Tigers both scoring-wise and defensively. Kent State ranks 17th in scoring defense and is 45th in field goal percentage. The Golden Flashes also are an excellent free throw shooting team making 79.3 percent. Kent State has been bolstered by the addition of Duquense transfer Sincere Carry. He leads the Golden Flashes in scoring at 15.8 points. Towson gives up nearly seven more points than Kent State and has played a weaker schedule. The Tigers rank 254th in shooting percentage, 306th in 3-point percentage and are a bad free throw shooting club at 69.5 percent. Kent State is a top-five Mid-American Conference team. Towson was picked to finish eighth out of 10 teams in the Colonial Athletic Association.
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory. The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. |
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12-04-21 | Marquette v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5 | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
I don't think the oddsmaker quite realizes what an intense in-state rivalry this matchup is because this total is much higher than what I believe it should be. Wisconsin has a long tradition of being a great defensive team. That's true again so far this season. The Badgers rank 11th defensively holding opponents to 56.7 points a game. Shaka Smart is off to a great start in his first season as coach of Marquette. The Golden Eagles are 7-1. They've held their past two foes to an average of 60 points. The Badgers don't figure to score much from beyond the arc ranking 283rd in 3-point shooting at 30.1 percent. Marquette has struggled, too, with its long-range shooting ranking 218th in 3-point shooting. These teams are going to have to work hard to get clean shots. I made this total 10 points lower than what the oddsmaker did. So I'm on the Under. |
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12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers -120 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Both teams have started the season slow. But I liked what I saw from the Lakers during the second half of their 117-92 win against the Kings this past Tuesday night. LA won that game without LeBron James, who is expected to play here. The Lakers are showing signs of getting better going 3-1 in their last four games. Their bench looked good against the Kings. I'm not seeing this type of improvement from the Clippers. They are 2-6 in their last eight games, including losing their last three. The Clippers have dropped down in class without injured Kawhi Leonard. The Lakers have a huge superstar edge now on the Clippers with James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook. |
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12-03-21 | Rutgers v. Illinois -8 | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rutgers has never won during its five all-time road games against Illinois. Don't expect that string to be broken here. Illinois has won nine straight home contests, including going 4-0 this season. All of the Illini's home wins have come by at least nine points, including an impressive 10-point victory against Notre Dame in their last game this past Monday. The Illini showed a lot of team cohesion in that victory. I don't believe Rutgers can stay within single digits of Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have a tough matchup dealing with Illini center Kofi Cockburn, who is in the argument for best player in the nation. |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +12 v. Suns | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Phoenix is having a great year. But this is a flat spot for the Suns sandwiched around games against Golden State. The Suns returned home from a four-game road trip and defeated the Warriors this past Tuesday. Following this game, the Suns travel to Golden State for a rematch against the Warriors on Friday. That's the game they are pointing to. The Suns won't have their leading scorer, Devin Booker. He suffered a hamstring injury and will be out several games. The Pistons have lost seven in a row. They are a young team and they play hard. Detroit has covered four of its last six. The Pistons often are undervalued. That's the case here given that the Suns will be minus Booker and are in a letdown/lookahead spot. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State -2 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. |
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12-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Penn State UNDER 139 | Top | 63-58 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Miami ranks 340th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 27.1 percent. The Hurricanes are going to have problems going against Penn State's physical defense especially if they can't hit from long range to loosen that pressure. Penn State doesn't score that much - ranking 250th - because the Nittany Lions like to milk the clock. That's been a noticeable trademark of new coach Micah Shrewsberry. Only six teams play at a slower tempo than Penn State. The Nittany Lions held LSU to 58 points in regulation during their last game. That was 23 points under the Tigers' season scoring average. |
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12-01-21 | Mavs -2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 139-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots. The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number. But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson. |
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11-30-21 | Lakers -4 v. Kings | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Just five days ago the teams met. The Kings prevailed in three overtimes, 141-137. Now the Lakers have rapid revenge. LA won't play again for the next two days following this game and will be at home when their schedule picks up. This should mean big minutes here for Laker superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook since there's no reason to hold back. LA is the healthier team. The Kings could be minus rotation players Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes and Maurice Harkless. All three are questionable. The Kings have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been home 'dogs. The Lakers' sense of urgency has picked up after a slow start.
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11-30-21 | Rider v. Ole Miss OVER 133 | 51-75 | Loss | -117 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
Mississippi should be able to take advantage of a bad Rider defense to post a big point total here. If you discount a 50-point performance against Boise State, the Rebels are averaging 78.8 points in their other five games. Rider ranks 235th in scoring defense and 239th in 3-point defense. The Broncs also are a very poor defensive rebounding team. The Broncs are a better offensive team than they showed, though, in their last game a 65-58 road loss to South Carolina. The Broncos made just 36.8 percent of their field goals in that game. They have three returning starters and four Division I transfers and are expected to contend in the MAAC. |
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11-30-21 | Davidson v. Charlotte +5 | 75-58 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Davidson is a big scoring team. But I'm not sold that the Wildcats should be road favorites here against an in-state rival that has the capability to frustrate them. This is Davidson's first true road game. The Wildcats win with offense. Their defense isn't that good. Charlotte plays at a slow pace and doesn't commit many turnovers. That's going to limit Davidson's opportunities. |
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11-30-21 | Detroit v. Northeastern -5 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit. The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far. The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is. I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price. |
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11-29-21 | Pelicans v. Clippers -6.5 | 123-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
The Clippers have short revenge for a 94-81 road loss suffered to the Pelicans 10 days ago. The Clippers also have motivation after playing poorly on Sunday at home in a 105-90 home loss to the Warriors. LA is usually very good in these bounce back situations. The Clippers played during the day on Sunday so there is less of a fatigue factor. They step down in class drawing the Pelicans. New Orleans still won't have Zion Williamson and holds a worse fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road contests. The Clippers are 17-6 ATS the past 23 times following a loss of more than 10 points. LA has the long range shooters to take advantage of the Pelicans' 27th-ranked 3-point defense. The Clippers also won't be seeing the nightmare of Stephen Curry hitting from all over the court. New Orleans ranks 27th in scoring. |
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11-29-21 | Notre Dame v. Illinois -4 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
I didn't see enough out of Notre Dame in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year, to believe the Irish can keep within this point spread at Illinois. The Irish went 1-2 in the tournament beating Chaminade, but losing to St. Mary's and Texas A&M. Notre Dame had trouble with the Aggies' full court pressure in the second half. The Irish have only broken the 70-point barrier once in five games this season. Illinois is getting outstanding play from its superstar 7-foot center Kofi Cockburn and from Alfonso Plummer. They'll be too much for Notre Dame. |
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11-28-21 | Pistons v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
Expect a lot of intensity in this one. It was just a week ago that Isaiah Stewart took after LeBron James after James struck Stewart in the face with a blow that was or was not accidental. It caused a fracas and resulted in short suspensions for both players. The Lakers won that game, 121-116, in Detroit. The Lakers shot 49 percent from the floor, well above their season 44 percent mark. The Pistons hit 44 percent of their field goals while their season shooting percentage is 40.5 percent. There were a combined 48 free throws taken. I don't expect the teams to shoot nearly that well. Since that loss to the Lakers, the Pistons have averaged 93.6 points in their last three games. Detroit ranks last in many of the major offensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. The Lakers aren't going to lack motivation after blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead on Friday in a 141-137 triple overtime loss to the Kings. LA is feeling embarrassed about a 10-11 record. The Pistons know they don't have the scorers to keep up with the Lakers so expect a slow tempo, methodical game from them. |
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11-26-21 | St. Joe's v. Georgetown UNDER 145 | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This game is part of the Wooden Legacy Tournament being played in the Anaheim Convention Center, which is notorious for its difficult shooting background. There isn't much crowd support either. I went Under on both of the Thursday games and each did go Under. I'm going to follow through with another Under here. St. Joe's went Under by 25 points against USC last night. St. Joe's and Georgetown are East Coast teams, too, playing in a weird time zone for them at a very late hour. |
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11-26-21 | Wolves v. Hornets -128 | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Scheduling dynamics heavily factor into this one. Both teams are hot. Minnesota is on a five-game win streak, its longest in four years. Charlotte is 7-1 in its last eight games. This is the Hornets' lone home matchup during an eight-game span. Charlotte just concluded three road games. The Hornets go back on the road for four more away games following this matchup. So the urgency definitely is with Charlotte. The Hornets are 6-2 SU and ATS at home this season, winning and covering their past four. The two home losses occurred to the Celtics in overtime a month ago and to the Cavaliers by three points on Nov. 1. Charlotte had just upset Portland the day before playing the Cavaliers. The Hornets are not in a letdown spot here. Charlotte has been strong as a favorite covering 15 of the last 22 in that role. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS during their past five games against Charlotte. |