03-28-24 |
Illinois v. Iowa State -125 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-125 |
73 h 11 m |
Show
|
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State.
Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points.
Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time.
Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon.
Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games.
Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country.
|
03-27-24 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 |
Top |
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago.
The ante is raised for the Suns after they got caught looking ahead to this matchup, losing 104-102 to the Spurs this past Monday. Phoenix has been playing better defense lately than its average ratings. The Suns have given up 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games.
The Nuggets are allowing only 103.8 points during their last seven games.
Both Bradley Beal and Jamal Murray are questionable with injuries. Beal is Phoenix's third-leading scorer while Murray ranks No. 2 in scoring for Denver.
|
03-27-24 |
Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks |
|
106-120 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago. Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.
|
03-26-24 |
Thunder v. Pelicans UNDER 223 |
|
119-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have the fourth-highest Under percentage in the NBA with 57.8 percent of their games going below the total. I see another Under for the Pelicans in this matchup as they return home from a four-game road trip to host Oklahoma City.
The Thunder just lost to the Bucks, 118-93, on the road this past Sunday shooting a season-worst 37.1 percent from the floor. The Pelicans give up the eighth-fewest points in the league, rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage and are No. 1 in defensive 3-point percentage.
New Orleans is minus its second-leading scorer, Brandon Ingram. The Thunder rank third in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. Their intensity should be way up following that 25-point embarrassing loss to the Bucks.
|
03-25-24 |
Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 |
|
133-116 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
Both the Pacers and Clippers played yesterday and both had bad defensive games. The Clippers lost, 121-107, to the 76ers at home while the Pacers suffered a tough, 150-145, defeat on the road to the Lakers. Before Sunday, though, each team was playing solid defense. Indiana had allowed just 105.5 points a game during their previous four games. The Pacers have held six of their last eight opponents to 111 points or fewer. The Clippers have a top-12 defense. They had surrendered an average of 110.6 points per game during their previous five games before Sunday. Note this, too, about the Pacers: Indiana has gone Under a staggering 16 of the past 17 times (94 percent) when the total is below 240, which it is here.
|
03-25-24 |
Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 |
Top |
133-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat. Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.
|
03-25-24 |
Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 |
|
74-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage.
Chicago State has a lower-tier offense and is 13-18. The Cougars have a number of bad losses, including a 12-point loss to DePaul.
The Cougars, though, were able to take advantage of a disinterested San Diego team to pull off a first-round upset in their CBI opener. I don't see it happening again. This is just the Cougars' second game since Feb. 19.
|
03-24-24 |
Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston |
Top |
95-100 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
|
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies.
Texas A&M has picked up its offense at the right time averaging 90.2 points in its last five games. The Aggies rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding and are a better free throw shooting team than Houston.
It takes good guards to beat Houston. Texas A&M has that. The Aggies also are healthier than the banged-up Cougars.
The two teams played each other this season. The game was played in Houston and the Cougars won, 70-66, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. Now the game is at a neutral site and the point spread is much higher.
The Aggies have proven themselves against some elite opponents beating Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State. The Cougars just met Iowa State in the finals of the Big 12 Tournament championship game and lost big, 69-41.
|
03-23-24 |
Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton |
Top |
73-86 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 52 m |
Show
|
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante.
Sparked by Dante stepping up the past few weeks as he's gotten fully healthy, the Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament - beating Arizona in the semifinals - and then knocking off South Carolina by 14 points in their opening NCAA Tournament game.
This game holds special meaning for Altman, a native of Nebraska who spent 16 seasons coaching Creighton leading the Bluejays to seven NCAA Tourney appearances.
Akron couldn't handle Creighton's height and shot poorly in losing to the Bluejays in the first round. Creighton, though, is stepping up in class with Oregon.
The Bluejays have to contend not only with Dante, but Oregon's hot-shooting guards. Dante missed the start of the season, but he's averaged 19.9 points on 84.1 percent shooting from the floor during his last seven games.
|
03-22-24 |
Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 215.5 |
|
99-97 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
This should be a loose game between two teams long eliminated from playoff contention. The injury-decimated Grizzlies have shown more offense and less defense lately. They fired up 49 3-pointers in their last game, a 137-116 road loss to the Warriors two days ago. That was the Grizzlies' fourth straight Over. The Grizzlies have taken on a new persona with rookie GG Jackson II and Santi Aldama firing up a heavy dose of 3-pointers.
Memphis ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 106 points a game. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 111 points in regulation while surrendering 117.5 points per game in regulation during their past four contests.
San Antonio has permitted at least 112 points in 25 of its last 30 games. The Spurs are a bottom-five defensive team.
|
03-22-24 |
Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska |
|
98-83 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much.
|
03-22-24 |
Yale v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 |
|
78-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 58 m |
Show
|
Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time.
Yale earned its way to the NCAA Tournament by nipping Brown, 62-61, in the Ivy League Conference Tournament final. The Bulldogs like to score inside. That's going to be problematic against Auburn, though, because the Tigers have the 16th-best shot blocker in the country in Johni Broome.
The Tigers' strength is offensive rebounding. Yale, however, doesn't foul much and ranks in the top-15 in defensive rebounding.
So this matchup sets up for an Under.
|
03-22-24 |
Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 |
Top |
77-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. The Owls reached the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last season before losing to San Diego State by one point on a buzzer beater. Florida Atlantic returns that experience and is in an angry mood after a stunning upset loss to Temple in the American Athletic Conference Tournament.
Northwestern was fortunate to even be picked for the NCAA Tournament. I have Florida Atlantic ranked way ahead of the Wildcats in my power ratings. Not helping matters for Northwestern is injuries. Senior guard Ty Berry is out. He's the Wildcats' fourth leading scorer and center Matthew Nicholson is dealing with a knee injury.
|
03-21-24 |
NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 |
Top |
80-67 |
Loss |
-120 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday.
Grant McCasland continued a recent Texas Tech tradition of strong coaching. The Red Raiders were riding a hot streak until running into second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals.
The Big 12 may be the best conference in the country this season, while it was a down year for the ACC.
|
03-21-24 |
Bulls v. Rockets OVER 219 |
|
117-127 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games.
The Rockets are playing at a faster pace than earlier in the season and have become more offensive-minded.
Houston is averaging 129.6 points in regulation during its last three games. The Rockets have been good for at least 112 points in all but one of their last nine games.
So I like the chances of this game going Over at this number.
|
03-21-24 |
Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina |
|
87-73 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 40 m |
Show
|
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona. South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games.
|
03-21-24 |
Morehead State +12 v. Illinois |
|
69-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 2 m |
Show
|
I don't like Illinois' track record in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have failed to get through the first weekend of the tournament during their last three appearances. Illinois gets worn down, which could be the case again this season after beating Wisconsin in the always-physical Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini have a potential superstar guard in Terrence Shannon Jr. Morehead State, however, has a very strong backcourt, too, with Riley Minix, Drew Thelwell and Kalil Thomas. Minix was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. Thelwell holds the school's single-season assist record while Thomas ranked in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season. The Eagles enter this matchup with a six-game win streak and being very underrated.
|
03-20-24 |
Jazz v. Thunder OVER 231.5 |
|
107-119 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
These teams have met three times this season. The combined total of those games was 241, 263 and 254. So why is this total so low?
Well, Utah's leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen, is out. So is Jordan Clarkson, the Jazz's third-leading scorer.
But I'll take that tradeoff to get a total this low.
The Jazz rank 27th defensively. They are last in 3-point defense. Oklahoma City is the No. 3 scoring team in the league and is the top-shooting 3-point team.
It's not a good matchup for Utah, which is obvious by this lopsided point spread.
The Thunder should have plenty of energy having been idle since Saturday.
The Jazz have played the Timberwolves in their last two games. Minnesota is the top defensive team in the NBA. But if you discount those two games, the Jazz have averaged 119.3 points in their last six games when they didn't have Markkanen.
|
03-20-24 |
Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
76-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 18 m |
Show
|
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C.
"Playing in the postseason is a huge deal,'' Appalachian State coach Dustin Kerns was quoted as saying. "This is another stair taken upwards in the evolution of our program. No one on our team has ever played in the NIT, so this will be a great experience for everyone."
Appalachian State has the motivation and is good enough to upset Wake Forest straight-up. The Mountaineers rank 30th defensively and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Each team averages 78 points a game. The Mountaineers are the stronger defensive team.
The Mountaineers can contain Wake Forest's pick-and-rolls and they have elite rim protector Justin Abson, who was the NCAA's fourth-leading shot-blocker. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison, a team getting a lot of love in the NCAA Tournament, twice this season.
The Mountaineers have won 16 of their last 18 games. Wake Forest is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games. Appalachian State and Wake Forest last met two years ago and Wake Forest won by one point.
|
03-20-24 |
Heat +2.5 v. Cavs |
|
107-104 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points.
Miami also is in excellent defensive form surrendering only 98.5 points per game during its last four games.
But this matchup comes down to situation and injuries. Miami is in the better spot on both of those key counts.
The Heat are without Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a back injury. But Jimmy Butler participated in the team shootaround today, which likely means he'll play after missing the last two games due to a foot injury.
Cleveland is in worse shape injury-wise. Out for the Cavaliers are Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Max Strus.
Miami lost, 98-91, on the road to the 76ers two days ago, while the Cavaliers could be in a letdown spot after upsetting the Pacers, 108-103, as a 7-point road 'dog this past Monday.
|
03-19-24 |
Pelicans -7 v. Nets |
|
104-91 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not.
It's also a bad spot for the Nets. The Nets are returning to Brooklyn following a 1-5 road trip that essentially killed any realistic chance for a play-in playoff spot. The final blow was an overtime loss to the Spurs in San Antonio two days ago.
The Nets are 2-6 in their last eight games with three consecutive losses and non-covers.
New Orleans, on the other hand, is playing its finest ball - a season-best 15 games above .500. The Pelicans have one of the top road marks at 21-13. They are 6-1 in their last seven games with all of the victories during this span being by more than seven points.
The Pelicans buried the Nets, 112-85, when the teams met the first time this season on Jan. 2.
|
03-19-24 |
Wagner v. Howard -3 |
|
71-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
Wagner and Howard meet in this play-in NCAA Tournament game. Power ratings-wise, I have Howard as more than a 3-point favorite. So I'll be on the Bison.
Wagner finished 7-9 in the Northeast Conference, but got hot in the conference tournament. The Seahawks finished the conference tournament title game with just seven healthy players. The Seahawks average just 63.1 points a game and rank 358th in field goal percentage.
Howard has the better record and the top player on the court in Bryce Harris, who led the team in scoring and rebounding.
|
03-18-24 |
Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
108-103 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 18 m |
Show
|
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line.
Cleveland is better than Indiana. The Cavaliers have lost five fewer games and rank in the top-five defensively. Cleveland gives up an average of 109.6 points per game. Indiana ranks second-to-last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers surrender an average of nearly 12 more points per game than the Cavaliers.
Cleveland has covered five of the last six times it has been an underdog. During their last seven games, the Cavaliers have beaten three teams with better records than Indiana - the Celtics, Timberwolves and Pelicans in New Orleans.
So I find this line out of whack.
|
03-17-24 |
Raptors +13 v. Magic |
|
96-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It's not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season.
Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday.
The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let's look at Toronto's past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic.
This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn't lack effort and motivation.
|
03-17-24 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 |
Top |
87-93 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 3 m |
Show
|
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.
But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr.
The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don't see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.
Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team's met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.
Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn't have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.
|
03-17-24 |
Suns v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 |
|
129-140 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
Both teams are playing better defense than their season numbers show. The Suns are giving up an average of 107.8 points in their last five games if you rule out the 127 points they surrendered to the Celtics two games ago. The Bucks have been playing much better defense since the coaching change to Doc Rivers, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games. This is what Rivers said about his coaching philosophy with the Bucks: "With our size, to me, if we're going to get into that mud wresting or a track meet, I want the mud. It's kind of fits what we should be." There are other factors that point to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Phoenix is concluding it's four-game, seven-day road trip here. This is a 10 a.m. west coast start time, too, for the Suns. So they could play slower than usual given their fatigue factor and unorthodox start time. The Bucks may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's questionable with a hamstring injury. That's a nice bonus for the Under if he can't play. Milwaukee will get Khris Middleton back from an ankle sprain. He's missed the last 16 games due to ankle sprain. Middleton figures to be rusty, though, and it's going to be an adjustment period for the Bucks' offense to fit him back in.
|
03-16-24 |
Blazers +13.5 v. Pelicans |
|
107-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS.
This spot sets up well for the Trail Blazers and the line value is there with the spread above what I had anticipated.
New Orleans just scored a big, 112-104, home win against the Clippers last night. The Pelicans had to play hard in the fourth quarter to secure the win. They won't be taking the Trail Blazers nearly as seriously. The Pelicans also could be distracted knowing that a four-game road trip looms ahead once this game is finished.
Portland is expected to have Anfernee Simons back in the lineup after he sat out the Trail Blazers' last game against the Knicks two days ago. It's an added bonus if the Trail Blazers get back second-leading scorer, Jerami Grant. He's doubtful.
The teams met earlier this season on Feb. 10 in Portland. It was a defensive game with the Pelicans winning by nine points, 93-84.
|
03-16-24 |
New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State |
|
68-61 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game.
The Lobos have looked good in the tournament going 3-0 SU and ATS sparked by guard Jaelen House, who is averaging 21.3 points in the tourney.
New Mexico has a scoring advantage and backcourt edge. San Diego State holds a defensive edge and front-court edge.
The Lobos are not a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game. The key is controlling pace. I don't see the Lobos, based on how they've looked in the tournament, getting dragged down to San Diego State's slow tempo.
|
03-16-24 |
UMass Lowell v. Vermont -7 |
|
61-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home.
UMass Lowell plays up-tempo and averages 80.3 points. Vermont ranks ninth in the country defensively holding opponents to 62.9 points. The Catamounts are disciplined and do not turn the ball over with the 10th-lowest turnover rate in the nation.
So we have a complete contrast of styles. Which will prevail?
The teams met twice during the regular season. Vermont won both times with the latest being a 74-62 home win two weeks ago. The Catamounts have won nine in a row.
Vermont has the history, home-court and right style to beat UMass by double-digits again.
|
03-15-24 |
Hawks -133 v. Jazz |
Top |
122-124 |
Loss |
-133 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
Just a month into the season, the Jazz made a commitment to go with a youth movement. They haven't been very good because of that during the past 3 1/2 months. From once being at .500 the Jazz are now 28-37. Utah has lost 11 of its last 13 games. The Hawks are a playoff contender. They opened their West Coast trip with an upset loss to the lowly Trail Blazers. Atlanta can't afford to lose a second consecutive game to a bad team. The Hawks meet the Lakers, Clippers and Suns in their next three games. They are not going to be favored in any of those games. The Hawks rolled past the Jazz, 124-97, when they hosted them on Feb. 27. Trae Young missed that game, too. This game holds special meaning for the Hawks because it's their coach, Quin Snyder, first game back in Salt Lake City. Snyder coached the Jazz for eight seasons. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Spurs plus 10 1/2 hosting Nuggets The defending world champion Nuggets have been the hottest team since the All-Star break. They've won 10 of their last 11 games to move into the top spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio has the worst record in the West at 14-52. So why step in against Denver besides getting a boatload of points? Situation and the Spurs being below-the-radar from a point spread perspective. That's why. Let's start with the spot. Denver began its four-game road trip with an impressive beatdown of the Heat two days ago. Following this game, the Nuggets play the Mavericks Sunday on national television (ABC). Denver concludes its road swing with a Tuesday game against the Timberwolves. This is the Nuggets' least important game of their current trip. It's a rest stop. So I doubt the Nuggets are too motivated and excited for this matchup. It takes two to make a successful handicap. The Spurs can hold up their end of the bargain. They have covered eight of their last 11 games, defeating the Warriors, Pacers and Thunder straight-up during this span. San Antonio should have upset the Kings straight-up, too, in Sacramento. The Spurs lost that game by two points after blowing a late lead. During these last 11 games, the Spurs were double-digit underdogs six times. They covered each of those six games. Note this game is being played in Austin, Texas. That's a randomness factor and randomness is good when backing a large underdog. It's a chance for the Spurs base in Austin to see Victor Wembanyama first-hand. So there should be crowd motivation.
|
03-15-24 |
St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 137.5 |
|
62-60 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
St. Peter's ranks 14th in the nation defensively allowing only 64.1 points a game. Quinnipiac has stepped up defensively holding its last four foes to an average of 61.7 points. St. Peter's ranks 339th in scoring. This is a semifinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference so the defensive intensity should be raised. The site, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is notorious for being a tough shooting venue because of its difficult backdrops and structure. The Under has cashed 65 percent of the past 62 tournament games played there.
|
03-15-24 |
Mississippi State v. Tennessee -10 |
|
73-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 17 m |
Show
|
Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State.
That should ensure a full, motivated effort from the 24-7 Volunteers against the Bulldogs, who finished the regular season with a losing SEC record.
Mississippi State beat LSU, 70-60, as a 4 1/2-point favorite in the first round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday. I'm not putting much stock in that, though. The Bulldogs often had trouble when stepping up in class like they will here. Mississippi State had lost and failed to cover during its previous four games before beating LSU.
The Volunteers, on the other hand, enter the conference tournament 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their past eight games. They've scored at least 81 points in six of their last eight games.
Look for rested Tennessee to get its revenge in a big way against the Bulldogs.
|
03-14-24 |
Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 |
Top |
85-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 33 m |
Show
|
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now.
The Wolf Pack get a scheduling edge, too, with the Mountain West Conference Tournament being in Las Vegas.
Matchup-wise, Nevada has a size advantage in the low post with Nick Davidson and has a trio of excellent defensive guards to hound Colorado State's star point guard Isaiah Stevens.
Colorado State has been out of sync when playing Nevada due to the Wolf Pack slowing things down and playing excellent perimeter defense. The Rams were just 12-of-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range in their two games against Nevada while the Wolf Pack made 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc for 45 percent. This isn't surprising since Nevada is a top-50 3-point shooting team while the Rams ranked second-to-last in the Mountain West in 3-point accuracy.
|
03-14-24 |
Clippers -5.5 v. Bulls |
|
126-111 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves.
I see the Clippers accepting this challenge with a great deal of urgency making this matchup a priority. The Clippers defeated the Bulls, 112-102, at home this past Saturday before their losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves.
The Clippers have won eight of their last 10 away games. The Bulls are in a difficult situational spot after a thrilling road overtime win against the Pacers last night. Now the Bulls have to return home to play without rest. This also marks Chicago's sixth game in nine days.
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are each questionable for Los Angeles. However, the Bulls might not have underrated Coby White, who left the Bulls' game in the fourth quarter against the Pacers and didn't return because of a hip injury. White is having a breakout season and probably is the Bulls' third-most important player. Leonard and Harden should be able to go having had an off-day on Wednesday.
|
03-14-24 |
Providence v. Creighton -8 |
|
78-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits.
The Bluejays enter the Big East Conference Tournament having won seven of their last eight games, including defeating No. 2 ranked UConn by 19 points on Feb. 20.
Providence isn't nearly as good as Creighton and isn't in good form going 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games. Both of the Friars' victories during this span were against Georgetown, which went 2-18 in conference.
|
03-13-24 |
Cavs +7 v. Pelicans |
|
116-95 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth.
New Orleans is in a flat spot playing its first home game since March 1. The Pelicans return home fat and happy having won all three games during their three-game road trip. Those victories were against the Raptors, 76ers and Hawks all of whom were missing a key player.
The Pelicans rank eighth defensively. They allow two more points per game than Cleveland.
New Orleans has a better road record than a home mark. The Pelicans have lost and failed to cover in two of their past three home contests.
|
03-13-24 |
Bulls +4 v. Pacers |
Top |
132-129 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 10 m |
Show
|
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday.
But now's the time to sell high on the Pacers as they return home to host the Bulls playing without rest following that 2-0 road trip. It's the Pacers' first home game in six days and just their second game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse since Feb. 28.
Oh, yes, the Pacers are 1-8 the past nine times when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've lost to far worse teams than the Bulls during this span when playing without rest.
The Bulls have won eight of their last 11 road games with two of those defeats occurring to the Cavaliers by three points and to the Magic in overtime.
There's a negative perception of the Bulls because Chicago is missing Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Patrick William. But the Bulls still have star power with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with emerging Coby White, who has quietly averaged 19.6 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game.
|
03-13-24 |
Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -6 |
|
85-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset home win against Florida. But even though Arkansas has had a disappointing season, I don't see the Commodores hanging in against the Razorbacks.
Prior to upsetting the Gators, the Commodores were blown out by Kentucky and LSU. Vanderbilt's last five defeats have all been by double-digits.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has covered six of its last seven games. Sparked by Khalif Battle, the Razorbacks have averaged nearly 91 points during their past five games. Vanderbilt can't match that firepower with its 323rd-ranked offense.
|
03-12-24 |
Florida International v. Jacksonville State -4 |
|
76-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in Conference USA. But it has a clear right side - Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won and covered both regular-season games against Florida International out-rebounding the Panthers by 27 boards.
Jacksonville State's strength is its 32nd-ranked defense that yields just 66.1 points a game. FIU has no strengths. The Panthers are a below average shooting team, terrible from the free throw line and give up 10 more points per game than Jacksonville State. The Panthers rank 349th in defensive field goal percentage and 369th in 3-point defense.
FIU is not in good form having dropped 10 of its last 13 games.
|
03-11-24 |
Celtics v. Blazers OVER 217 |
|
121-99 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
The Celtics are going to get their points against a below average Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage. Boston ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game.
I expected the Trail Blazers to contribute their share of points in getting this total to go Over. Portland has reached at least 120 points in three of its last six games.
Portland has gotten two of its key offensive contributors back with Deandre Ayton and Scoot Henderson healthy. They join Anfernee Simons, the Trail Blazers' leading scorer, to give Portland scoring punch. It's just an added bonus if Jerami Grant can play for Portland.
|
03-11-24 |
Tex A&M Commerce v. Nicholls State -5.5 |
|
51-72 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
Nicholls State is the better team and in better form than Texas A&M Commerce in this Southland Conference Tournament game. Texas A&M Commerce has been terrible in an underdog role. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been an underdog of more than one point. They are a bad shooting team and are bad, too, in defensive field goal percentage ranking 300th. Nicholls State went 2-0 vs the Lions during the regular season, winning the most recent matchup, 85-70, at home on Feb. 24.
|
03-11-24 |
Warriors -4 v. Spurs |
Top |
112-102 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 42 m |
Show
|
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer.
I know that going in. But it doesn't matter. I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Spurs in this rapid revenge spot.
The Spurs stunned the totally flat Warriors, 126-113, at San Francisco this past Saturday as 12 1/2-point underdogs. Curry didn't play and he remains out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have the rest of their stars back in action, though, including Klay Thompson and Chris Paul.
Golden State is holding onto the 10th playoff spot in the West, giving it a place in the play-in tournament. The Warriors, however, can't afford to take the 14-50 Spurs lightly. Golden State's next two games are on the road against the Mavericks and resurgent Lakers, who are off home victories against the Timberwolves and Bucks.
The Warriors are 8-1 SU and ATS during their past nine road games with the only defeat in this span coming to the Celtics. They've defeated the Spurs four straight times in San Antonio. The Spurs haven't been home in eight days. So their concentration level could be off and their motivation down after having just upset the Warriors.
|
03-10-24 |
Wizards v. Heat -9.5 |
|
110-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
The term fat and happy hasn't been used to describe the Washington Wizards in a long time. But that's what the Wizards finally are after snapping a horrendous 16-game losing streak by beating the equally bad Hornets, 112-100, at home in their last game this past Friday. Miami is anything but fat and happy. Try mad and motivated. The Heat return home off back-to-back road losses to the Mavericks and Thunder. The Heat had Saturday to rest after falling to the Thunder this past Friday. Miami won't play again until Wednesday so expect a full and focused effort against the Wizards. "We'll get better from this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the losses to Dallas and Oklahoma City. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are getting new-found help in the rotation from rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and recently acquired veteran Patty Mills. The Wizards have lost their past eight road games, getting blown out in four of their past five away contests.
|
03-10-24 |
Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 225 |
Top |
116-103 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 22 m |
Show
|
It's easy to perceive the Pelicans as an offensive team with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Truth be told, though, the Pelicans are a defensive-minded club. If you discount a 123-114 loss to the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, New Orleans has surrendered an average of only 100.9 points in its last 10 games. The Under has cashed in eight of the Pelicans' past 10 games. It takes two to make an Under work. The Hawks should do their part. Atlanta is an entirely different team without injured superstar guard Trae Young. The Hawks are averaging 119.9 points on the season while giving up 121.5 points. However, in the last seven games that Young has missed due to a finger injury, the Hawks are averaging 108.4 points and allowing just 102.8 points.
|
03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 159.5 |
|
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
Thanks to the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, Arizona has wrapped up another Pac-12 regular-season championship. USC has finally gotten healthy and is coming on scoring 81 and 82 points, respectively, in their last two games.
I see a loose, up-tempo fun game between these two teams as they conclude their regular season. And, yes, plenty of points.
Arizona averages 90.3 points. USC rates 265th defensively and 331st in 3-point defense. The Trojans will be motivated to match the Wildcats' huge scoring output since they won't be able to stop them defensively. They are capable of that being at home, healthy and drawing Arizona when it doesn't have incentive.
|
03-09-24 |
Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 20 m |
Show
|
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread.
The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country with a 4-27 record. Their last victory was on Dec. 21. They are an embarrassing 0-19 in the Big West Conference.
San Diego is 20-11 and 14-5 in the Big West, which is the second-best mark in the league. However, the Tritons are ineligible to play in the conference tournament, NCAA Tournament and NIT. That's because they transitioned from Division II to Division I when they joined the Big West in 2020. There is a four-year transition period before the team can be eligible to play in those postseason tournaments. This is the final year the Tritons have to wait.
So look for San Diego to come out strong with this being its final game. The Tritons were upset by Cal-Davis at home in their previous game this past Thursday. They certainly don't want to close their season with another disappointing performance. They should come out focused and they have the perfect patsy to make amends.
The overmatched Mustangs just want their horrendous season to close. They are a terrible defensive team and the sixth-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging a puny 62.9 points a game. San Diego averages nearly 15 more points per game than the Mustangs.
|
03-09-24 |
Colorado v. Oregon State +8 |
|
73-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
It's tough to beat both Oregon and Oregon State on the road in the span of three days. Colorado accomplished the first task defeating Oregon, 79-75, this past Thursday. That win clinched third place in the Pac-12 standings and earned the Buffaloes a first round bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.
It also puts the Buffaloes in a flat spot here.
Oregon State has been disappointing with a 13-17 record. However, the Beavers have some big Pac-12 victories, including upsetting Arizona, Utah and Arizona State. Those victories all came at home.
The Beavers are 2-1 in their last three games. They just defeated Utah, 92-85, two days ago as a 7-point home underdog.
"I know the progress has not shown in the win-loss record, but our guys are getting better," Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle said following the Utah game.
Cody Williams, Colorado's third-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury.
|
03-08-24 |
Bucks -135 v. Lakers |
|
122-123 |
Loss |
-135 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
The Bucks are at least one tier above the Lakers and have strong motivation after suffering an embarrassing, 125-90, road loss to the Warriors two days ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo was especially vocal about the Bucks' bad loss.
Milwaukee had been playing its best defensive ball of the season before that defeat, holding its previous five foes to an average of 96.8 points.
The Bucks are 6-1 in their last seven games. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games.
There's a chance LeBron James doesn't play for the Lakers after he left the Lakers' last game with ankle soreness against the Kings this past Wednesday.
I like the Bucks to win even if James plays. It's just an extra cherry if James doesn't suit up.
|
03-08-24 |
Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 136 |
Top |
79-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses.
So the defensive intensity should be up as the teams close out the regular season with this game, with seeding position in next week's conference tournament at stake.
San Diego State gives up the 29th-fewest points per game in the country. The Aztecs have held their last opponents to an average of 55.6 points.
Boise State ranks 50th in the nation defensively and eighth in defensive rebounding. The Broncos play at the second-slowest tempo in the Mountain West. San Diego State is a terrible 3-point shooting team and the Aztecs aren't likely to get many second-chance points, either.
The last six games in the series have averaged only 113.6 combined points. There were 133 points scored in the first meeting in Boise when the Broncos nipped the Aztecs, 67-66.
|
03-08-24 |
Ball State +5 v. Bowling Green |
|
70-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
I like Ball State's current form. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times in their last five games. They've won each of those games beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan on the road. Then this past Tuesday, the Cardinals upset Kent, 76-69, as a 3-point home 'dog.
Bowling Green is 2-5 in its last seven games. The Falcons are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they've been favored. Bowling Green is good defensively, but hasn't scored more than 60 points in five of its last seven games. So I find this too many points for the Falcons to be laying.
|
03-07-24 |
Spurs +11 v. Kings |
|
129-131 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Since Jan. 29, the Kings have been favored by 6 1/2 or more points five times. They are 0-5 ATS in those games with two outright losses. Now the Kings are laying double-digits in a flat spot after a huge home underdog victory against the Lakers last night. Sacramento rallied from an early 19-point deficit to beat the Lakers, 130-120.
I understand San Antonio has the third-worst record in the NBA and won't have star rookie Victor Wembanyama. He's out with a sprained ankle. But the Spurs upset both the Pacers and Thunder before losing to the Rockets, 114-101, at Houston in their last game two days ago. San Antonio has covered five of its last seven games.
Wembanyama didn't shoot well when the Spurs and Kings last met on Feb. 22. The Kings hosted the Spurs in that game and only by five points, 127-122. Wembanyama shot just 8-of-23 from the floor and was 1-of-6 from 3-point range. Wembanyama didn't play well either in the Spurs' loss to the Rockets scoring just 10 points, which was his lowest scoring output since Dec. 21.
|
03-07-24 |
CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 137 |
|
74-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 32 m |
Show
|
These teams are far better on defense than offense. Cal State-Fullerton ranks 320th in scoring, but 78th defensively. Cal Riverside rates 288th in scoring and 169th defensively.
Cal Riverside may catch a break as Fullerton could be without its second-leading scorer, guard Max Jones. He's questionable with an injury.
This is an important game for both teams with the Big West Conference Tournament approaching. So I'm expecting a cautious approach with both teams relying on their defense to get stops.
There won't be much of a crowd either, probably no more than 500 people. So the lack of people isn't exactly going to ignite either team's offense either.
|
03-07-24 |
SIU-Edwardsville v. Morehead State UNDER 138 |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
|
Strong defense, slow tempo and a tough shooting venue. Those are the reasons why I like this total to go Under in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game. Morehead State gives up the second-fewest points in the country at 62.5 per game. They rank in the top-10, too, in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. And here's the kicker - the Eagles also are a bottom-10 team in terms of pace. They play extremely slow. That is fine with SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars are playing without rest having beaten Eastern Illinois, 68-57, in a first round OVC tournament game on Wednesday. The tempo in that game was slow and the Cougars were fine playing that way. Morehead State has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games allowing an average of just 52 points. The Eagles are strong favorites to beat SIU Edwardsville, but they will be careful. The Cougars upset them, 61-48, at home during the regular season. The Cougars accomplished that by playing at a slow tempo. They have an above average defense, giving up 70.3 points. The venue should factor, too. The game is being played at Ford Center in Evansville, Ind. This is a neutral site arena with 11,000 seats that traditionally has been hard for players to get used to the shooting sights. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of the previous 43 Ohio Valley Conference tournament games played at Ford Center.
|
03-06-24 |
Bucks v. Warriors -4 |
Top |
90-125 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 2 m |
Show
|
Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks.
The Warriors could be back to full strength and are off an utterly humiliating, 140-88, nationally televised road loss to the Celtics this past Sunday afternoon.
I want Golden State going for me at home following that embarrassment.
The Bucks, by contrast, are fat and happy having defeated the Clippers, 113-106, at home this past Monday despite not having superstar Antetokounmpo. He missed that game due to Achilles soreness, which has rendered him questionable for this game.
Despite the loss to the Celtics, the Warriors are 11-3 in their last 14 games. They are expected to get back Brandin Podziemski and Andrew Wiggins, who had missed the past four games because of a personal matter. Wiggins is the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer and an ace defender. Podziemski is Golden State's fifth-leading scorer and is second on the team in rebounds per game.
Not only could the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo, but they are down their third-best player, Khris Middleton. He's out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have won and covered against the Bucks at home each of the past three seasons.
|
03-06-24 |
Fairleigh Dickinson v. Le Moyne -3.5 |
|
61-82 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
I trust Le Moyne's defense much more than Fairleigh Dickinson's offense in this Northeast Conference Tournament matchup.
Le Moyne is giving up an average of 63.5 points in its last eight games. Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 318th defensively giving up an average of 77.4 points.
Le Moyne held the Knights to an average of 65.5 points in the two regular season meetings.
|
03-06-24 |
Villanova v. Seton Hall |
|
56-66 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
Villanova is in good shape for an NCAA Tournament bid. Seton Hall isn't - unless it wins here. I believe the Pirates will accomplish that.
Seton Hall is coming off road defeats to Creighton and Connecticut. No shame in that. But the Pirates must protect their home-court edge where they are 12-3.
Villanova shouldn't have the motivation that Seton Hall has. The Pirates also have revenge incentive for an, 80-54, road loss to the Wildcats on Feb. 11.
|
03-05-24 |
Nevada v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
76-66 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
There were only 120 points scored in the team's first meeting, a 64-56 Boise State win on Jan. 12. Do I think more points will be scored in this rematch? Yes, but not enough of them go to Over the total.
This is an important Mountain West Conference game with Nevada tied for second place one game behind Boise State and Utah State for the lead. So the intensity should be there.
Nevada ranks 42nd defensively and 38th in defensive efficiency. The Wolf Pack were hurt by Boise State's star big man, Tyson Degenhart in that first meeting. Degenhart, who averages 17 points a game, scored 20 points against Nevada. But the Wolf Pack have improved their low-post defense since then.
Boise State ranks 43rd defensively and 31st in defensive efficiency. The Broncos play at the second slowest tempo in the Mountain West. They are strong both in defensive rebounding and 3-point defense. Nevada managed only two offensive rebounds in the first meeting. That wasn't a fluke. Only 10 teams in the country allow fewer second-chance points than Boise State.
There's a chance the Wolf Pack could be without their best backcourt player, point guard Kenan Blackshear. He missed the Wolf Pack's last game and is questionable here with a calf injury. That injury could slow him - and Nevada's pace - if Blackshear does play.
|
03-05-24 |
Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 228.5 |
|
139-98 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Raptors are just starting to experience life without Scottie Barnes, who is their key player leading them in scoring and assists. Barnes suffered a broken hand two games ago against the Warriors.
Barnes played fewer than 16 minutes against the Warriors before sustaining the injury. The Raptors scored only 105 points vs Golden State. Toronto then scored 111 points against a bad defensive team, the Hornets, in their last game. Charlotte gives up an average of 118 points a game.
Now the Barnes-less Raptors go against a rested New Orleans team that has been idle the past three days. The Pelicans are a huge step up in defensive class. New Orleans ranks eighth defensively and is No. 2 in 3-point defense. Opponents have scored fewer than 107 points in six of the last nine games against the Pelicans. The Under has cashed the past five times in Pelicans' games.
If you discount two games against the Pacers and one against the Wizards - teams who are third from the bottom and last in defense - the Pelicans are averaging 105.3 points in their last six games.
|
03-04-24 |
Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
106-113 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 16 m |
Show
|
Doc Rivers may not be the greatest strategist, but the Bucks have been playing much better defense lately under him than they did for Adrian Griffin. Milwaukee has given up an average of only 97.2 points during its last five games. That would rank first in the NBA by a good nine points if computed out for the entire season. The Clippers rank third in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bucks' defensive strength is its perimeter defense. Milwaukee is sixth in 3-point defense. The Clippers would be averaging only 103.2 points in their last five games if you discount their 140-point game against the defenseless Wizards. The Clippers are a top-10 defensive team and are coming off an 89-88 defensive slugfest road win against the Timberwolves on Sunday. The Clippers forced 15 Minnesota turnovers and held the Timberwolves to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor. The Clippers rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace and that was with Russell Westbrook, who is out now. Doubtful the Clippers will want to play up-tempo against the Bucks especially without rest.
|
03-04-24 |
Delaware State v. Howard -4 |
|
66-85 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 54 m |
Show
|
Howard is in excellent form winning five of its last six games, including three in a row.The Bison average four more points per game than Delaware State and can exploit the Hornets' porous 3-point defense, which ranks 338th.
The teams met a month ago at Delaware State and the Hornets lost to the Bison, 75-71, despite getting to shoot 10 more free throws.
|
03-03-24 |
Pacers -6 v. Spurs |
|
105-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 23 m |
Show
|
It wasn't just the Pacers losing on the road to the Pelicans this past Friday. It was how they lost. New Orleans thoroughly embarrassed the Pacers beating them, 129-102. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, an emerging superstar, was held scoreless.
The Pacers and Haliburton desperately want to redeem themselves. They are in a great position here to do just that.
Indiana is stepping way down in class meeting the 12-48 Spurs, who have the worst record in the Western Conference. San Antonio also is fat and happy, after stunning the Thunder, 132-118, as a double-digit 'dog this past Thursday in their first home game since Feb. 3. The Spurs had lost their previous five games by an average of 12.2 points.
The Pacers are 34-27 and have the fifth-best ATS mark in the NBA. They are the No. 1 scoring and field goal percentage team in the league. Indiana took full advantage of the Spurs' bottom-five defense in the first meeting, rolling past San Antonio, 152-111.
|
03-03-24 |
Warriors +11.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
88-140 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
|
I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball.
Golden State has won eight consecutive road games. The Warriors are 6-1 in their past seven overall games. Only once in their last 20 games have the Warriors been defeated by more than nine points.
The Warriors are used to being on center stage and they won't be intimidated by the Celtics, who they beat in overtime when they played them earlier this season at home.
"...We've just gotten healthy and found a groove," Warriors coach Steve Kerr was quoted as saying. "... It took us a while, frankly, just to figure out our team. We were leaning on what we were two years ago when we won the championship early in the season and that wasn't working. ... We've got a good bit of momentum going and we're just going to try and keep it going.''
This is a nationally televised game (ABC) and should have playoff-type intensity.
|
03-03-24 |
Indiana +9 v. Maryland |
|
83-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
Maryland ranks 332nd in field goal percentage, is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten Conference and its home mystique has been shattered with losses to Rutgers and Northwestern.
So Indiana isn't getting enough respect here.
Kel'el Ware, the Hooisers' 7-foot center, is coming on strong and Indiana is off a confidence-building home win against Wisconsin this past Tuesday. Ware is averaging 20.5 points in his last four games. He made 11 of 12 shots from the floor against the Badgers.
Indiana defeated Maryland, 65-53, at home when the teams first met this season.
|
03-02-24 |
UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 138 |
|
52-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Both teams are dealing with injuries that have derailed their offenses.
UT Rio Grande Valley is averaging only 52.6 points in its last three games. The Vaqueros are a bottom-15 3-point shooting defense and facing a Cal Baptist defense that ranks 41st. They could manage just 54 points in a 63-54 loss to Cal Baptist in the first meeting.
The Lancers' offense is down without Dominique Daniels, who is far and away their scoring leader averaging 19.2 points. The Lancers are averaging 59 points during their past three games.
|
03-02-24 |
Kansas State +6.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
72-74 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
Kansas State is coming on and Cincinnati is reeling. So this is a generous amount of points to back the Wildcats in an important game for both teams that should feature lots of intensity.
The 17-11 Wildcats are off victories against ranked BYU and West Virginia. They remain alive for an NCAA Tournament bid given how tough the Big 12 is this season.
Cincinnati has likely played itself out of the NCAA Tournament going 1-5 in its last six games. The Bearcats are 16-12 overall and 5-10 in the Big 12. Cincinnati's lone win during its last six games was against Central Florida by two points. If you take away their two victories vs Central Florida, the Bearcats would be 1-8 in their last nine games.
|
03-02-24 |
Hawks +2 v. Nets |
|
102-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
Even without injured Trae Young, the Hawks are better than the Nets. So I want Atlanta in rapid revenge after the Nets embarrassed the Hawks, 124-97, at home this past Thursday.
That was Atlanta's third game without their superstar Young. The Hawks had beaten the Magic and Jazz minus Young before stumbling in a flat, listless performance against the Nets.
The Hawks should be far more motivated for this short turnaround rematch. If the Nets win they would cut the Hawks' lead to two games over them for the final play-in spot.
It has been more than a month since Brooklyn won consecutive games. The Nets are 4-9 in their last 13 games and have their own injuries. Cam Thomas, the Nets' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points, is out with a sprained ankle and point guard Ben Simmons is questionable with a sore knee.
|
03-01-24 |
Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 |
|
61-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
Lafayette is home, in a revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. It says a lot that the oddsmaker has opened the Ragin' Cajuns such a strong favorite against Southern Mississippi. I agree with their assessment. I see the Ragin' Cajuns winning by double-digits as three of their past four four losses have come on the road.
The Ragin' Cajuns average six more points per game than the Golden Eagles. They also rank third nationally in 3-point defense. Southern Mississippi is 220th in 3-point shooting and 249th in 3-point defense.
There also is a key injury. Southern Mississippi will be without Donovan Ivory, who is its third-leading scorer at 13.1 points and most accurate free throw shooter. He's out with a foot injury.
|
03-01-24 |
Warriors v. Raptors +3.5 |
|
120-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
First off, Toronto is more than capable of beating Golden State straight-up. The Raptors did just that in convincing style, 133-118, at Golden State on Jan. 7.
Golden State has picked up its game. But the Warriors' last three victories have been against the injury-wracked Knicks and Wizards and Hornets, who have a combined record of 24-94. Golden State also has a monster look-ahead game. The Warriors meet the Celtics in Boston in a nationally televised Sunday afternoon game.
The Warriors are carrying a high fatigue rating into this matchup. This marks their sixth game in nine days and second in two nights. Golden State isn't expected to have Andrew Wiggins, their fourth-leading scorer, and one of their better defenders.
Stephen Curry generates all the buzz. But Toronto's Scottie Barnes has been playing at a very high level averaging 21.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and making 50 percent of his field goals during the past five games.
Toronto has been playing well lately, too. The Raptors are 3-1 in their last four games with two of those victories coming on the road against the Hawks and Pacers. The Raptors were bigger underdogs in those games than they are here.
|
03-01-24 |
Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist |
Top |
55-58 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 38 m |
Show
|
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team.
Fairfield leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) with a 12-5 mark. Marist is in fourth place with a 10-6 mark. The Red Foxes have three fewer overall victories than Fairfield.
Marist lost, 69-60, to Saint Peter's as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs in its last game this past Sunday. Fairfield defeated Saint Peter's, 64-62, on the road and whipped them, 76-67, at home.
The Staggs also rolled past Marist, 82-61, as short home favorites back on Jan. 7. Fairfield has the healthier frontcourt and holds a strong backcourt edge on the Red Foxes. The Staggs have the top guard depth in the MAAC. They forced 18 turnovers against Marist in the first game. That wasn't unusual. Marist has a turnover problem and the Staggs' guards are excellent defenders.
Marist has a stingy defense that is aided by its offense's half-court slow, deliberate style. However, Fairfield averages 12 points more per game and ranks 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Caleb Fields, one of four good guards Fairfield has, burned the Red Foxes for 33 points while hitting 10-of-18 3-pointers in the first meeting.
The Staggs are in excellent current form, too, winning six of their last seven games, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in their past three games. The Staggs have won outright five of the last six times they've been underdogs. Marist has a losing ATS record the past nine times it has been favored.
Fairfield has defeated Marist each of the previous five seasons on the road. This includes a 70-61 away win last year.
|
02-29-24 |
Gonzaga v. San Francisco +4 |
|
86-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 41 m |
Show
|
Gonzaga is back in the Associated Press Top 25 ranking 23rd. But this isn't the elite Gonzaga team of previous years. They are overpriced against San Francisco, which is 7-1 in its last eight games and 13-1 at home.
The Bulldogs beat the Dons on their home-court, but the game was close. Gonzaga won, 77-72, as a 9 1/2-point favorite on Jan. 25.
While this is a huge game in the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs have even a bigger game on deck when they play at 17th-ranked Saint Mary's on Saturday night.
|
02-29-24 |
Wizards +9.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
131-134 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 45 m |
Show
|
The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter.
The bad news for the Lakers is they have a game today. Yes, the opponent is the Wizards, who have lost 11 of 13 games since replacing Wes Unseld Jr. with interim coach Bran Keefe.
But the Wizards are rested, play at the fastest tempo in the NBA and are 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.
The Lakers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and have failed to cover three of the past four times when favored. The Lakers are down several big men on their rotation with Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood both out. James played 37 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 36 minutes. It wouldn't shock if either was rested, or had their minutes reduced tonight.
This is a huge spot for former Laker Kyle Kuzman, who has emerged as arguably the best player on the Wizards. Backed by Kuzman, look for the Wizards to be motivated for this matchup after being idle yesterday. The spot sets up nicely for Washington.
|
02-28-24 |
Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois |
|
97-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
You wouldn't know it from their last game, a bad 18-point loss to Nebraska this past Sunday. But the Minnesota Gophers own the best point spread mark in college basketball at 23-4 (85 percent).
The 17-10 Gophers have been a huge surprise. I expect Minnesota to play hard with tremendous effort after laying an egg against Nebraska. Gophers coach Ben Johnson called into question the passion of his players following that 73-55 road loss to the Cornhuskers.
It was just the third time in 27 games the Gophers had lost by more than 11 points. Minnesota has covered 11 of 14 times as an underdog and had covered nine in a row until the dreadful loss to Nebraska.
Illinois has a losing ATS record in its last nine games. The Illini have won 14 of their 16 home games, but are only 8-7-1 ATS in those games.
|
02-28-24 |
St. John's v. Butler -120 |
Top |
82-59 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 13 m |
Show
|
Butler is home, has revenge and is in circle-the-wagons mode. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row putting them on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs and I believe they will come through given St. John's recent road conference struggles.
St. John's is off a huge, 80-66, upset of then 15th-ranked Creighton this past Sunday. That was at home, though. The Red Storm are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in their last six Big East road contests. Their lone victory during this span was against Georgetown, which is 2-15 in the Big East.
Despite the win against Creighton, the Red Storm have not been doing that well going 4-8 in their last 12 games.
|
02-28-24 |
Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 239.5 |
|
114-123 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
It's easy to see why this total is as high as it is. The Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league and have a bottom-three defense. The Pelicans have an above average offense and several big-time scorers.
But I'm going Under based on several factors.
The Pelicans have even a better defense than offense ranking in the top eight. They also are the No. 1 defensive team when it comes to guarding the 3-pointer. That's huge against the Pacers. If you toss out their game against the Wizards, the Pelicans have allowed an average of only 98 points in their last six games.
The Pacers, for all of their high-scoring, have gone Under in five of their past seven games. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle is really going to be stressing transition defense to his team after Indiana lost, 130-122, at home to the Raptors two days ago.
Indiana may catch a break if CJ McCollum has to miss his third straight game because of a sprained left ankle. He's New Orleans' third-leading scorer at 18.8 points a game.
Both teams carry a fatigue factor. The Pelicans are playing without rest after beating the Knicks last night, while this is Indiana's third game in four days. The Under has cashed three of the past four times when the Pelicans have played without rest.
Note, too, the same two teams meet Friday in New Orleans. So neither team may want to show all of their tricks.
|
02-27-24 |
Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 58 m |
Show
|
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada.
The Wolf Pack are a tough matchup for Colorado State. That was proven in the first game between these teams on Jan. 24. The Wolf Pack won, 77-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. That was the most points the Rams allowed in regulation during their last 19 games.
Nevada took advantage of its height advantage to make 56.8 percent of its shots inside the paint.
The Rams are heavily reliant upon point guard Isaiah Stevens. But Stevens had trouble against the Wolf Pack's 38th-ranked defense making only four-of-16 shots from the field. Nevada held Colorado State to just 26.1 percent from 3-point range as the Rams missed 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. This wasn't a fluke as the Wolf Pack have some of the Mountain West Conference best perimeter defenders in Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster and Kenan Blackshear. They are a big reason why the Wolf Pack give up just 66.3 points a game.
The Wolf Pack have held six of their last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. Discount an 83-82 loss to New Mexico and Nevada is surrendering an average of only 61.6 points in its last six games.
|
02-27-24 |
Valparaiso v. Northern Iowa UNDER 148 |
|
54-68 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
I always think defense first when it comes to the Missouri Valley Conference. This quick rematch between Valparaiso and Northern Iowa should result in a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives.
Valparaiso has been playing better defense with the exception of its Feb. 14 game against Northern Iowa. The Panthers beat Valparaiso, 86-67, by shooting a phenomenal 67 percent from the floor.
Northern Iowa has held five of its last seven opponents to 71 or fewer points. Valparaiso has been held to 70 or fewer points in eight of its last 10 games.
|
02-27-24 |
Pelicans -3 v. Knicks |
|
115-92 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
I like the Pelicans to cover against the Knicks even if Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum can't play. Both are listed as questionable. The Knicks, for sure, won't have two of their key players with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby both out.
The Knicks are only 3-6 in their last nine games. That record would be 2-7 if the Knicks didn't score a late basket to nip the last-place Pistons, 113-111, at home last night. The Knicks were lucky to win that game when the officials missed an obvious late-game foul that wasn't called.
The Pelicans come to New York in a bad mood after losing, 114-106, to the Bulls at home two days ago blowing a 12-point late third quarter lead. New Orleans is just as good on the road as it is at home with identical 17-12 records.
New Orleans has won five of its last six away games.
|
02-26-24 |
Heat v. Kings UNDER 226 |
Top |
121-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
Below the radar, the Heat have been playing outstanding defense. They've allowed an average of only 101.7 points in their last nine games. The Under has cashed in nine of Miami's last 10 games.
But the biggest news surrounding the Heat is about the suspension of three players, including Jimmy Butler, after a skirmish occurred in Miami's last game, a 106-95 road win against the Pelicans this past Friday.
So Miami will be down three rotation players, including superstar Butler. The Heat also could be without Tyler Herro. He suffered a knee injury against the Pelicans and is questionable. Butler and Herro are Miami's top two scorers. Terry Rozier is Miami's third-leading scorer and he's questionable, too, with a knee injury. Rozier has missed the past two games.
The Heat rank in the bottom three in terms of pace. Eric Spoelstra is an elite defensive coach. The Heat will be stressing defense here down players.
The Kings rank seventh offensively and are 10th in tempo. They are not known for their defense. However, the Kings have held three of their last six opponents to 107 or fewer points. Sacramento just beat the Clippers, 123-107, on the road last night. So this is a back-to-back spot for the Kings. They aren't likely to push pace because of that.
|
02-26-24 |
Coppin State v. Howard -13 |
|
69-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
Howard is a mediocre MEAC team. But the Bison are vastly superior to Coppin State, which is 2-22 and has lost 15 of its last 16 games.
The Eagles average 57.6 points a game. That's the second-lowest mark in the country! Howard averages 18 points more per game than Coppin State.
The Bison played at Coppin State on Jan. 29 and won, 81-66. It's not too much to ask of them to cover this number at home against a punchless and dead opponent.
|
02-25-24 |
Magic v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 |
|
92-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
Yes, the Hawks are a high-scoring bad defensive team. So, why go Under? Because the dynamics are not usual for the Hawks in this matchup.
Trae Young is out. The superstar guard leads the Hawks in scoring and assists by a wide margin. He has a finger injury. Center Clint Capela is back. He had missed six games until returning for Atlanta's last game. Capela is rounding into shape. He gives Atlanta strong rebounding and shot-blocking, averaging 10.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game.
Orlando is the opposite of Atlanta. The Magic rank sixth defensively, but 25th in scoring.
The Magic are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They endured a much tougher game than expected last night. Orlando was able to edge Detroit, 112-109, on Saturday night in a hard-fought game. So don't look for the tired Magic to push pace. The Hawks' tempo could be slowed, too, with Young not playing.
|
02-25-24 |
Nuggets v. Warriors +1 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 45 m |
Show
|
Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets.
Look for the Warriors to continue their momentum against the defending world champion Nuggets.
Denver also is 2-0 coming out of All-Star break. However, the Nuggets' victories were against two patsies - the Wizards and Trail Blazers. Denver had gone 0-3 in its three previous games with a pair of losses to the Kings and one to the Bucks.
Now the Nuggets face another real opponent. The Warriors should be extremely motivated. Not just because they have triple revenge having gone 0-3 to the Nuggets this season losing those games by an average of four points. But because they are playing their best ball, are home and need to prove they can beat the Nuggets.
Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets. Murray, Denver's second-leading scorer, missed the Nuggets' last game because of shin splints.
|
02-25-24 |
Siena +16 v. Fairfield |
|
64-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.
But I'm going to be on the Saints today getting this many points because Fairfield is in a major letdown spot. The Stags moved into second place in the MAAC after upsetting conference leader Quinnipiac, 85-81, as a road underdog just two days ago.
That was a great victory for Fairfield. The Stags, though, are not some great power. They have a losing ATS mark and have dropped four games at home.
Siena does have one good player, Sean Durugordon. He's averaging 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
The Saints were only three-point 'dogs when they lost at home to Fairfield, 93-69, on Jan. 5. Now look at how high the point spread is.
|
02-24-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149.5 |
|
68-92 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
Pepperdine has gone Over in five of its last six games. The Waves are averaging 90 points in their last two games, but their defense remains awful.
Pepperdine ranks 269th in scoring defense, 357th in defensive field goal percentage and 356th in 3-point defense. Just three games ago they yielded 103 points to St. Mary's, which is 27 points above the Gaels' season average.
San Francisco certainly can exploit such a weak defense, especially at home. The Dons average 78.6 points. They rank 12th in field goal percentage. The Dons have scored at least 90 points in four of their last seven home games.
Defensively, though, the Dons have surrendered 70 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.
|
02-24-24 |
CS-Northridge +2.5 v. CS-Fullerton |
|
65-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team.
The Matadors average nine more points per game than Fullerton and defeated the Titans by five points at home on Jan. 13 as a four-point favorite.
Northridge has proven itself on the road, too, winning eight times. This includes an eight-point upset win against Santa Barbara four games ago.
Fullerton has lost five times already at home. The Titans are 1-5 in their last six overall games.
|
02-24-24 |
Magic v. Pistons +8 |
|
112-109 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
Orlando is one of the more improved teams this season. The Magic came out of All-Star break with an impressive, 116-109, road win against the Cavaliers two days ago.
The Magic are young, though. I don't trust their mentality to bury the Pistons in what is a letdown and look-ahead spot for them. The Magic have a bigger game on tap Sunday when they play the Hawks in Atlanta.
Detroit lost, 129-115, on the road to the Pacers this past Thursday in its first game following All-Star break. The Pistons were rusty in the first half, but scored 45 points in the third quarter. They outscored the Pacers by 15 points in the second half.
Now the Pistons get to play their first home game since Feb. 4 when they lost, 111-99, to the Magic. Detroit is a better team with a healthy Cade Cunningham, who had 30 points and eight assists against the Pacers.
The Pistons have quietly been effective point spread-wise at home covering seven of their last nine home contests.
|
02-24-24 |
Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest |
Top |
79-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.
Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.
I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.
Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.
|
02-23-24 |
Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2.5 |
|
85-81 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
Quinnipiac is 10-2 in its last dozen games, but coming off an embarrassing home to Niagara. The Bobcats are superior to Fairfield, which is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and the price is low enough to back them.
The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in free throw percentage. Their free throw shooting and defensive field goal percentage is far better than Fairfield.
Quinnipiac didn't play that well in its first meeting with Fairfield this season committing 16 turnovers. The Stags made more free throws than the Bobcats, too. Yet the Bobcats still won. I expect them to play much better at home especially off a bad loss.
|
02-23-24 |
Wizards +16 v. Thunder |
|
106-147 |
Loss |
-112 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
Emerging Oklahoma City wanted to make a statement coming out of the All-Star break. Statement made as the Thunder impressively buried the Clippers, 129-107, at home Thursday night. Now the Thunder face a far less daunting foe - the Wizards. It's a flat spot for the Thunder. So I'm going to hold my nose and back the Wizards getting this many points. Washington has lost nine in a row, including suffering a 130-110 road loss to Denver last night. The Wizards, though, have a winning point spread mark in their last 11 games. They hosted the Thunder on Jan. 8 and lost by eight points, 136-128.
|
02-23-24 |
Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 |
Top |
101-95 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
These are two excellent defensive teams, who both rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace.
The Clippers are off an embarrassing, 129-107, road loss to the Thunder on Thursday night. LA has a top-10 defense. So I see the Clippers really clamping down defensively after surrendering 129 points last night.
Memphis is the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 107.1 points a game. The injury-decimated Grizzlies rank second-to-last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
But the Grizzlies give up the 11th-fewest points in the league. They've been especially strong defensively during their last three home games holding the Bucks, Rockets and Pelicans to an average of 106.3 points.
The Clippers are big favorites. This could mean a reduction in minutes for the Clippers superstars Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden, all of whom played last night.
|
02-22-24 |
Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State |
Top |
71-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 53 m |
Show
|
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday.
The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State.
I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt.
Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage.
Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.
|
02-22-24 |
Pistons +11.5 v. Pacers |
|
115-129 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
There's a certain randomness factor when NBA teams haven't played in eight days like these two teams. Randomness is good when backing an underdog in this high of a point range.
All-Star weekend took place in Indianapolis for the first time since 1985. It was a good showcase for the city and state of Indiana. Pacers star point guard Tyrese Haliburton represented the Pacers well during the All-Star Game scoring 32 points.
It's heady stuff for the Pacers, who may come out sluggish against a Pistons squad that has the worst record in the NBA at 8-46.
The Pistons, though, often are undervalued on the road where they have covered six of the past eight times. Detroit added seven new players at the trade deadline. The Pistons have had ample time during the break to get their newcomers in sync with each other. The time off also gave Cade Cunningham, Detroit's emerging star, time to recover from left knee soreness.
The Pacers will be minus Aaron Nesmith, their fifth leading scorer at 12.6 points a game. Nesmith also is the Pacers' second-most accurate 3-point shooter. He's out with an ankle injury.
|
02-22-24 |
College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 |
|
90-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 19 m |
Show
|
College of Charleston has a better record than Delaware, but I don't see the Cougars winning this game.
The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and surrender more than 76 points on the road. The Blue Hens are 5-1 in their last six games.
Delaware surrenders fewer than 70 points a game and ranks 38th in 3-point defense. The Blue Hens are giving up an average of 61.7 points in their last four games. College of Charleston is heavily reliant on hitting 3-pointers. The combination of being on the road and facing a strong 3-point defense will prove the undoing of College of Charleston in this one.
|
02-22-24 |
Hampton +9.5 v. Campbell |
|
72-68 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
Hampton was a 3 1/2-point favorite when it hosted Campbell back on Jan. 6. Even though Campbell won, 80-69, I find this point spread too high. Hampton has a winning ATS mark in its last six games. The Pirates have lost by more than six points twice in their last seven games. They are 6-2 ATS the last eight times when getting three or more points. Campbell is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Fighting Camels have been favored by more than four points only once all season. That was against 9-16 Morgan State.
|
02-21-24 |
UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force |
Top |
72-43 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV.
The Falcons stunned the Rebels, 90-58, as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 23. Air Force is 0-6 SU and ATS since then. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers against the Rebels.
Not only do the Rebels have revenge, but they also are in a kill mood after blowing an 11-point second-half lead in a 69-66 home loss to arch-rival Nevada this past Saturday. That loss snapped a five-game UNLV win streak.
The Rebels are 14-10 on the season, 7-5 in the Mountain West Conference. They are a much better team than Air Force and should have huge motivation. Air Force ranks 315th in scoring at 67.9 points per game. The Falcons rank 337th in defensive field goal percentage and 354th in 3-point defense.
Oh, yes, the Falcons also are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.
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02-21-24 |
Dayton -130 v. George Mason |
|
67-71 |
Loss |
-130 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
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If Dayton wins this game it will take over sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10 Conference. The Flyers are a complete team with a star player, DaRon Holmes, to match George Mason's key player, Keyshawn Hall.
George Mason, though, could be minus their second-leading scorer, Darius Maddox, though. He's questionable with an injury.
The 16th-ranked Flyers have proven themselves on the road covering eight of 11 times. They are the superior team so this is a short price to lay.
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02-21-24 |
Richmond -4 v. Rhode Island |
|
85-77 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
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Richmond is a couple of levels higher than Rhode Island, much closer to the elite of the Atlantic 10 Conference - Dayton and Loyola of Chicago - than below .500 where Rhode Island resides.
The Spiders are 13-2 in their last 15 games, riding a lot of momentum. Rhode Island has been going the opposite direction, losing seven of its past nine games. Richmond is 18-7 overall and 10-2 in the Atlantic 10. The Rams, by contrast, are 11-14 and have a losing conference record.
Richmond ranks 32nd defensively and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Rams are mediocre offensively and are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation making only 63.8 percent.
The Spiders have won five of the last six times on the road and have defeated Rhode Island five consecutive times.
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02-20-24 |
Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada |
Top |
58-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
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There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night.
Nevada rallied from nine points down to nip the Rebels, 69-66, as two-point road 'dogs. It was a very satisfying victory for the Wolf Pack. But it also puts the Wolf Pack in a letdown spot for this matchup against Wyoming.
The Cowboys are a respectable .500 Mountain West Conference team that has a winning overall record and a winning league road mark. They are not an easy opponent for Nevada. The Cowboys proved that back on Jan. 20 when they upset the Wolf Pack, 98-93, as seven-point home 'dogs. Now the line has doubled, which I find way too high.
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02-20-24 |
UCF v. West Virginia +2.5 |
|
67-77 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
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UCF is 1-5 in its last six games and shouldn't be laying points on the road to West Virginia. The Mountaineers are finally healthy and have proven themselves at home having knocked off then No. 3 Kansas.
Just a couple of days after upsetting Kansas, West Virginia had to play at Central Florida and lost in that flat spot. RaeQuan Battle, the Mountaineers' leading scorer, was ejected with nearly 11 minutes left in that game.
Battle and the rest of the Mountaineers will be seeking revenge. Central Florida has been far less effective offensively when playing on the road, averaging 10 points fewer per 100 possessions.
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02-20-24 |
Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan |
|
60-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
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I find this line to be off. Bowling Green was a whooping nine-point home favorite against Central Michigan on Feb. 3. Central Michigan upset Bowling Green, 77-76 in overtime. The Chippewas shot 51 percent from the floor in that game. Bowling Green had a terrible shooting game making only 33 percent of their field goals, 66 percent of their free throws and missing 33 of 40 shots from beyond the arc.
These teams are third and fourth in the MAC. Bowling Green has the better overall record.
Central Michigan ranks 328th in scoring at 66.1 points a game. Bowling Green averages 75.8 points a game. I expect the Falcons to shoot much better and for Central Michigan to shoot much worse in this short revenge spot for Bowling Green.
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02-19-24 |
Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston |
Top |
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 43 m |
Show
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Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars.
So I'm on the Cyclones.
Yes, Houston has a 19-game home win streak and is ranked first in the country defensively. Iowa State, however, ranks seventh defensively in the nation, averages more points per game than the Cougars and is a better free throw shooting team.
The Cyclones have had the Cougars' number, too, winning seven of the past eight times. This includes a 57-53 home victory against Texas on Jan. 9 when the Cyclones were a much shorter underdog.
Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger is one of the top-five coaches in the country, in my view. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Texas had failed to cover in its past four games before its victory against Texas.
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