Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
Miami at Denver 9:00 ET Nuggets (-) over Heat- In all three of their previous playoff series No. 8 seed Miami was able to get a jump on the No. 1 Bucks, No. 5 Knicks and No. 2 Celtics in the opening game of the series and that put tremendous pressure on the home clubs. They felt ambushed in a way and that is not something Denver has to worry about. After crushing Phoenix in their final two games of the series the Nuggets swept the Lakers and won their seventh straight over the Heat in Game One. I am sure to hear how Miami will make adjustments and the Game-1 loser is covering with the zigzag concept is they play...well not so fast. Let us take a closer look at this Heat club. To start with they are just 3-9 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more. And I have more, Miami is 9-26 ATS in the lat 35 overall meetings and 0-4 ATS at Mile High. Finally, they are 4-14 ATS in their last 17 with 2 days rest while the Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on two days rest and we will rest with the Nuggets are 8-3 last 11 at home. Plus they really are a lot better and hungry. Nuggets can shoot the ball and the other side not so much, as they already shot their load in the last three anomalies. Take DENVER! |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Miami at Denver 9:00 ET Nuggets (-) over Heat- Being in the Mile High City should cool off this Miami team who have been blazing hit in every big game situation in the entire playoffs. Denver who has been sitting around for what seems like an eternity is the polar opposite of the Heat and will force the tempo into a pace Miami will try and avoid. The key for the Nuggets is to hit their usual shots and do not allow the Heat pressure to affect them. Straight up, I think Nikola Jokic is just too big and powerful for the Heat defense. Miami has been through a grinding run and are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games with just two days rest and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Denver and 9-25 ATS in the last 34 meetings overall. Take DENVER! |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Miami at Boston 8:30 ET Celtics (+) over Heat- Okay, here comes the rub, I totally expect Boston to win this game as I posted them at 7/1 to win the series after falling behind 0-3. We had the Game 6 Megabucks winner Boston 104-103 on the ‘Money Line’ -140 and as I expected it came down to the final buzzer and we were lucky enough to win outright while avoiding the non-cover favorite point spread loss. The position that I personally am in with the series bet +700 I should without a doubt take the points and cover my original action and have a 7.5-point middle or even take the Heat on the money line...but I just do not believe Miami is the winner. Now, while the betting public is taking them at a 3-to-1 clip I find it difficult to even play my middle. Instead I am going to let it ride (love that movie) because it has not happened in 150 other tries and because the money has been wrong every game this series. Aside from the final four minutes Jimmy Butler looked either hurt of too tired to carry this team any longer. Celtics are 9-3 ATS after an ATS loss. I never thought that I would have the favorite here, and I though that the Heat would come to play and make it a battle to the final whistle. But, now, with all the pressure on Miami we will see why they were seeded EIGHTH! Take BOSTON! |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -142 v. Heat | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Boston at Miami 8:30 ET Celtics (-) over Heat- I said before I posted my NBA Game of Year winner in Game 5 with Boston I suggested that if they win Game 5 the series will go seven games. Now, the Celtics are favored on the road at Miami and the Heat return home with the pressure of the entire playoffs mounts as they do not want to have to return to Boston. The Celts are still in the we have nothing else to lose mode and that is dangerous. I am afraid of a gaff win by the Celtics but they are the side. Take BOSTON! |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Miami at Boston 8:30 ET Celtics (-) over Heat- All’s I can say is, if Boston wins here ...watch out! AM I thinking of the 2004 Red Sox who were down 3-0 to the Yankees and had just lost at home 19-3 and no one gave them a chance...they won and yes I have thoughts of that and they are not pleasant (Yankees fan). Knowing that 0-3 teams in NBA playoff series are 0-150 and after posting a Highest-Rated Megabucks winner with the Celtics I am coning right back with my strongest side of the season. The number is huge and Miami is catching most of the money and from what we have seen rightly so. But, other than the Game 4 line adjustment the odds maker makes the Celtics the same as Game 1. If the Celts have as much confidence in themselves as the odds makers..they win. Take BOSTON! |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Boston at Miami 8:30 ET Celtics (+) over Heat- I know what I said about Miami having more ‘Mojo’ than Austin Powers and they went out and absolutely destroyed the Celtics in a Game 3 romp that put them ahead 3-0 in the series. So, at this point everyone is in shock and Boston doesn’t have a clue how to change things the media is killing their rookie coach and looking to dissect the club. At 0-3 no team in NBA history has ever come back (0-150) to win the series and I would image the Celtics down to a man are bewildered and embarrassed. That second thing going a long way among professionals and Boston is that. This time around the Heat are favored and maybe that might too much for them to carry. I always take points but this is do or die for the Celtics and winning the game is all that counts for them here on out. Oh...I can not believe it...take CELTIC PRIDE! |