Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-24 | Hawks v. Bulls -3 | 116-131 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Bulls 9:30 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Bulls -3.0 The Atlanta Hawks are a textbook example of why some question the validity of the Play-In Tournament. The Hawks enter this contest on a 6-game losing streak, failed to cover on 5 of those occasions, and finished with a 36-46 regular season record. The Hawks are coming off Sunday’s regular season finale in which they were embarrassed in 157-115 loss at Indiana. Atlanta is 0-7 SU&ATS their last 7 this season after a loss by 15 points or more and were outscored by an average of 10.7 points per game. During their previous 5 games Atlanta has allowed their opponents to shoot an alarmingly high 54.8% from the field. Chicago finished the regular season by winning 2 of their last 3 games. However, I was more impressed in their loss at Madison Square Garden in their regular season finale than the 2 wins over Lowly Washington and Detroit. During that contest, the Bulls lost to the Knicks 120-119 in overtime as a 13.0-points dog. Furthermore, the Bulls were already locked into the #9 seed and really had nothing to play for. Conversely, the Knicks needed to win to attain the Eastern Conference #2 seed. Chicago played with playoff intensity and now being at home against a more inferior opponent than New York it will serve them well. Give me the Bulls minus the points. |
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04-14-24 | Hawks v. Pacers -13 | 115-157 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
Hawks @ Pacers 1:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Pacers -13.0 The Hawks really have nothing to play for. They’re locked into the Eastern Conference #10 seed and will face Chicago on the road in a Play-In Tournament win or go home game. Indiana has plenty to play for. They need a win or a loss by Philadelphia or Orlando to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Furthermore, Indiana is coming off Friday night’s loss at Cleveland. The Pacers have gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 17.2 points per game. During those 7 games, they held their opponents to 105.4 points per game, 44.8% shooting, and a paltry 27.6% from 3-point territory. Conversely, Atlanta is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Indiana has gone 3-0 SU&ATS versus Atlanta this season, shot 60.6% or better in all those contests, and that includes 48.4% or better on their 3 point shot attempts on each occasion. Give me the Pacers minus points. |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Pelicans @ Kings 10:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Pelicans +1.5 The New Orleans Pelicans have dominated Sacramento this season while going 4-0 SU&ATS in their head-to-head meeting and with an enormous average victory margin of 21.3 points per game. The Pelicans have been better on the road than at home this season. New Orleans is currently 26-14 (.650) on the road and 21-18 (.538) on their home floor. The Kings enter tonight’s game having lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of the previous 8 contests. Although Sacramento is averaging 116.5 points scored per game this season, they’ve recently struggled in that category of late. The Kings have scored 109 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games. Sacramento has gone a mediocre 7-6 SU in their last 13 at home. Give me the Pelicans. |
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04-09-24 | Magic -2.5 v. Rockets | 106-118 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Magic @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Magic -2.5 After going on an 11-game win streak which catulpated them into playoff contention, Houston preceded to go 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 contests while being outscored by an average of 14.8 points per game. During this current 5-game losing streak they’ve allowed opponents to score 127.4 points per contest, shoot 53.3% from the field, and 43.7% of their 3-point shot attempts. Orlando has gone an extremely profitable 26-9 ATS as a favorite this season. The Magic have won 4 of their last 5 overall and they allowed 106 points or fewer in 10 of their previous 13 games. Give me the Magic minus points. Give me the Magic minus points. |
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04-08-24 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Rockies | 5-7 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Gallen) @ Rockies (Freeland) 8:40 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-115) Since 7/9/2022, Kyle Freeland has made 5 starts versus Arizona and compiled a terrible 8.89 ERA during those outings. That includes a start at Arizona last week in which he allowed a whopping 10 earned runs on 10 hits over just 2 1/3 innings pitched. The Rockes bullpen has been awful to start the season with a staff 7.28 ERA/1.93 WHIP. Arizona began the season by taking 3 of 4 at home versus Colorado and outscored them 32-14. Since 2020, Zac Gallen has made 5 starts at Coors Field in Denver and posted a terrific 2.18 ERA/0.73 WHIP. The Arizona bullpen has been solid thus far with a staff 3.55 ERA/1.08 WHIP. Give me Arizona on the run line. |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans v. Suns -6 | 113-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Pelicans @ Suns 6:10 ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Suns -6.0 These are 2 playoff bound teams but are currently headed down opposite paths. New Orleans has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 while losing by 9.0 points per game and all those occurred at home. The Suns are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home with an average victory margin of 14.3 points per game. The Suns are 2-0 SU&ATS versus the Pelicans this season with both coming on the road by 13 and 14 points. Phoenix is coming off a 97-87 home win over Minnesota. The Suns are 3-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they scored less than 100 points and won by an average of 17.7 points per contest. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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04-06-24 | Alabama v. Connecticut -11.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Alabama vs. Connecticut 8:49 PM ET Game# 671-672 Play On: Connecticut -11.5 Analytically speaking, this is a horrible matchup for Alabama. The won’t be able to contend with UConn on the boards for one. Secondly, 46.9% of Alabama’s field goal attempts are 3-point shots, and over their previous 5 games UConn has held their opponents to a combined 24.5% shooting from 3-point territory. Additionally, Alabama loves to play at a frenetic offense pace while UConn doesn’t. However, the Huskies are flexible enough to play that style and be extremely effective while doing so. Keep in mind, Connecticut ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency with 126.7 points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The Huskies are also #4 in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing 0.915 points per opponent’s offensive possessions. On the other hand, Alabama has allowed 82 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Connecticut has held opponents to less than 40% shooting in 25 of their 38 games (65.8%) this season. Alabama has shot less than 40% 5 times this season and went 1-4 SU&ATS during those contests. Their only win in that sequence came in the NCAA Tournament versus Grand Canyon who’s a far cry from what they’re about to face tonight. Give me Connecticut minus points. Since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed like UConn that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Give me Connecticut minus points. |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
NC State vs. Purdue 6:09 PM ET Game# 673-674 Play On: Purdue -9.0 The Cinderella NC State Wolfpack have been a nice story. They were just 17-14 during regular season action. However, once the postseason began, they went 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS which enabled them to reach this point. That includes 7-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Yet, they find themselves as a 9.0-point underdog in this Final 4 matchup versus #1 seed Purdue. Here’s the caveat, since the 2017 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that was a favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 in a Regional Final, National Semifinal, or Championship game have gone 5-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 18.8 points per contest. Although taking the red-hot sizable underdog is seemingly a very alluring option, recent history has shown that by doing so it’s been a losing proposition. Furthermore, from an analytical standpoint, Purdue has sizable advantages in rebounding, 3-point shooting percentage, and assist to field goal made percentage. Give me Purdue minus points. |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State -3 v. Seton Hall | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Seton Hall vs. Indiana State 7:00 PM ET Game# 681-682 Play On: Indiana State -3.0 This NIT Championship Game will technically be played on a neutral floor. But, for all intents and purposes it might as well be an Indiana State home game based on the huge throng of Sycamore fans at their team’s NIT semifinal game at Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis, Indiana. The drive from their campus in Terre Haute to Indianapolis is just 76 miles and 75 minutes. That must be considered when handicapping this contest. Regarding the level of competition that each team has faced in the NIT thus far. Indiana State has far and away played a more difficult level of opponents. Both teams were 1 of the last 4 teams left out of the NCAA Tournament by the committee. However, with all things being equal I firmly believe that a mid-major team like Indiana State will be the one with a bigger chip on their shoulder versus their power conference opponent. The oddsmakers seemingly agree with my stance as evidenced by them making Indiana State a favorite in this contest. Give me Indiana State minus points. |
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04-02-24 | Georgia +4.5 v. Seton Hall | 67-84 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
Georgia vs. Seton Hall 9:30 PM ET Game# 663-664 Play On: Georgia +4.5 These teams have taken different paths to get to this point. Seton Hall has won 3 consecutive home games in the NIT to reach the semifinals. All 3 of their opponents were ranked #78 or worse by Ken Pom and they barely escaped with an overtime win over St. Joseph’s in a 1st round game. Conversely, Georgia has won their last 2 on the road at Wake Forest and Ohio State. All 3 of their NIT wins have come over teams that Ken Pom has ranked #58 or better. So not only has Georgia faced the tougher competition to reach this point but they did so with a pair of road wins. Lastly, they say the great equalizer for a College Basketball underdog is their ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. Well, Georgia has done exactly that in the 3 NIT contests while making a red-hot 44.1% of their 3-point shot attempts while averaging 10 makes per contest. Give me Georgia plus points. |
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03-31-24 | Mavs v. Rockets +2.5 | 125-107 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Rockets 7:10 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Rockets +2.5 Dallas is coming off a win at Sacramento and did so as a 1.5-point underdog. The Mavericks are an abysmal 1-9 ATS this season following a SU underdog win and were outscored by an average of 8.9 points per contest. Houston enters today on a season high 11-game win streak. Their most recent win was 101-100 at Utah. The Rockets are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season immediately following a contest in which they scored 105 points or fewer and they did so by 10.4 points per occurrence. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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03-31-24 | NC State +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NC State vs. Duke 5:05 PM ET Game# 657-658 Play On: NC State +7.5 Duke is coming off a physically and emotionally draining 54-51 win over #1 seed Houston on Friday night. I know it’s the NCAA Tournament and the sense of urgency rises to a whole other level. However, I find it hard to believe that the physical and emotional toll that Duke needed to pull off their upset over Houston has at the very least a small carryover into Sunday’s Regional Final. Besides the fact they’re playing a red-hot NC State team that’s gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS this postseason and includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. Give me NC State plus points. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3.5 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Clemson vs. Alabama 8:49 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Clemson +3.5 I’ve mentioned numerous times on camera and in text about not overlooking free throws as part of your process when handicapping a game. Alabama is #319 nationally in free throw attempts allowed because of their aggressive defensive nature in an attempt to speed up the pace of games to their liking. Conversely, Clemson is #9 nationally in free throw percentage while making a terrific 78.7% of their attempts this season. Alabama has allowed 27.3 free throw attempts per contest throughout their first 3 NCAA Tournament games. Alabama is coming off an 89-87 win over #1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. However, since the start of last season, the Crimson Tide has gone a dismal 0-5 SU when coming off a win by 6 points or fewer in an away or neutral site game and lost by 15.2 points per contest. On the other side of the ledger, Clemson has gone 5-0 SU this season in an away or neutral side game when facing opponents like Alabama who average 62 or more field goal attempts per game and with a sizable average victory margin of 19.4 points per outing. Clemson has also gone 7-0 SU this season when in non-conference games when facing teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Clemson has been outstanding defensively in their first 3 NCAA Tournament game while holding opponents to a mere 34.3% shooting. Lastly, Alabama is a team that shoots a high volume of 3-point shots. Specifically speaking, the Crimson Tide has seen 46.3% of their field goal attempts this season come from 3-point territory. However, Clemson has held their 3 NCAA Tournament opponents to 14-75 (18.3%) from beyond the 3-point line. Give me Clemson plus points. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois +9 v. Connecticut | 52-77 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Illinois vs. Connecticut 6:09 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: Illinois +9.0 I am not going to waste my time nor yours attempting to poke holes into a UConn team that has few if any to dive into. I have contended from the start that Illinois was the most serious threat to UConn in the East Region. I am just 1 more monumental effort by the Illini from being prophetic with that statement. Nevertheless, we aren’t taking about an NCAA Tournament bracket prediction and more importantly picking a point-spread winner. Illinois is an extremely profitable 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and won 4 of those 7 contests outright. They also have a superstar player in Terrance Shannon Jr. Who is averaging 30.4 points scored per contest during Illinois current 7-game unbeaten streak. But, the Illini also possess an outstanding supporting cast beyond Shannon. Give me Illinois plus points. |
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03-29-24 | Creighton v. Tennessee -3 | 75-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Creighton vs. Tennessee 10:10 PM ET Game# 641-642 Play On: Tennessee -3.0 After starting the season 4-3, Tennessee went 22-5 in their next 27 games. All 8 of the Vols losses this year came against opponents in the 2024 NCAA Tournament field. Conversely, Creighton (25-9) has sustained 6 losses this season versus teams that weren’t in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Tennessee hangs their hat on their stifling defensive play that analytically ranks #3 nationally. I am very confident that Tennessee’s defensive prowess and them being a more athletic side in this matchup will push them to a win and cover. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -6.5 | 67-58 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
NC State vs. Marquette 7:09 PM ET Game# 643-644 Play On: Marquette -6.5 NC State is 7-0 SU in their last 7 and that includes winning 5 times as an underdog. Yet here they are as a sizable underdog in the Sweet 16. Truth be told, the Wolfpack caught a luck break in the Round of 32 while facing #14 seed Oakland who upset Kentucky in 1st round action. Even then, they barely escaped with a 6-point win in overtime. However, I firmly believe their Cinderella run ends right here and in a decisive manner. Tyler Kolek returned to the lineup for the NCAA Tournament and teaks what is a very good team without him to a great team with him. During the first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament Kolek has averaged 19.5 points scored, 11.0 assists, and 5.5 rebound per game in wins over Western Kentucky and Colorado. Give me Marquette minus points. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Illinois +1.5 Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good. I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois. |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +6.5 v. Seton Hall | 68-91 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
UNLV @ Seton Hall 7:00 PM ET Game# 621-622 Play On: UNLV +6.5 Seton Hall needed overtime at home to knock off St. Joseph’s in NIT 1st round action. They were much better in their 2nd round 72-58 home win over North Texas. Prior to the NIT, Seton Hall had gone just 6-7 SU in their last 13 games. UNLV finished the year strong and has carried that over to the NIT with wins vs Princeton and Boston College. The Rebels are 12-3 SU&ATS over their last 15 contests. UNLV has also gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog and won 6 of those 10 games SU. Furthermore, UNLV has gone 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS during their previous 9 games versus teams not making the NCAA Tournament. Give me UNLV plus points. |
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03-27-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Norfolk State +1.5 | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
IPFW @ Norfolk State 7:00 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Norfolk State +1.5 Norfolk State is a beneficiary of playing in the CIT where the higher seeded teams play at home. That’s especially significant considering their 14-0 at home this season. When eliminating their 4 games played at home versus non-Division 1 opponents, Norfolk still outscored their 10 opponents by 12.5 points per game. This will also be the first time all season that Norfolk State is a home underdog. The current total in this contest is 145.5. Norfolk State is 10-1 SU this season when the total was between 140.0 to 149.5 and they outscored those opponents by an average of 7.8 points per game. Norfolk State is also 13th nationally in free throw attempts and they’ve converted a respectable 72.3% of those opportunities. Conversely, IPFW has averaged just 12 free throw attempts per game during their previous 5 contests. Give me Norfolk State. |
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03-26-24 | Warriors -2.5 v. Heat | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Heat 7:40 ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Warriors -2.5 Miami has been a tad better on the road than at home this season. As a matter of fact, the Heat have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. Conversely, Golden State has gone 11-4 SU in their last 15 on the road. The Warriors are coming off losses in each of their previous 2. However, Golden State has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following back-to-back losses and with an average victory margin of 11.0 points per game. The Warriors haven’t lost 3 straight games since 12/30/2023. Give me the Warriors minus points. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Houston 8:40 PM ET Game# 835-836 Play On: Texas A&M +10.5 Houston is coming off an impressive 86-46 blowout win over #16 seed Longwood. However, as crazy as this may sound, I thought Texas A&M was even more impressive in Friday’s 98-83 win over Nebraska. The Aggies are one of just a handful of teams in college basketball that’s capable of dealing with Houston’s athleticism and rebounding prowess. The Aggies have now scored 80 points or more in each of their previous 5. Houston has developed the reputation in recent seasons of being an elite offensive rebounding team and they still are. But Texas A&M ranks #1 nationally this season in offensive rebounding and they retrieved 14 of those in their opening round win over Nebraska despite shooting an exceptional 57.4% from the field and 56.5% from 3-point range. The Aggies had 5 players score in double figures and includes 3 that tallied 20 or more. These teams played on a neutral floor earlier this season and Houston won 70-66 but failed to cover as a 7.0-point favorite. Give me Texas A&M plus points. |
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03-24-24 | Northwestern v. Connecticut -14 | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
Northwestern vs. Connecticut 7:45 PM ET Game# 825-826 Play On: Connecticut -14.0 Connecticut has more size, speed, and athleticism than Northwestern is capable of competing with over an entire 40-minute game which will wear them down in the 2nd half. Northwestern is coming off an overtime win over an FAU team that faltered a bit during the 2nd half of the season and ultimately led to a premature exit from the tournament. They won’t be as fortunate in this matchup as UConn is peaking at the right time. Give me UConn minus points. |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Grand Canyon vs. Alabama 7:10 PM ET Game# 839-840 Play On: Grand Canyon +6.0 If you watched Grand Canyon (30-4) upset nationally ranked St. Mary’s on Friday in Spokane, Washington then you know the Antelopes had overwhelming supports from their fanbase inside the building. That won’t change on Sunday and will serve as a huge emotional lift for the underdog. Grand Canyon was 28-36 (77.8%) from the free throw line in that win. Grand Canyon is #3 nationally in getting to the free throw line and has made 75.4% of those attempts. Conversely, Alabama is #320 nationally in free throw attempts allowed with much attributed to their aggressive defensive style. Grand Canyon’s interior defense was sensational versus St. Mary’s evidenced by 9 blocked shots. Alabama is #347 in the country in getting their shot attempts blocked. Another advantage Grand Canyon will have in on the offensive glass where they rank #32 nationally. On the other hand, Alabama is #236 in defensive rebounding. Give me Grand Canyon plus points. |
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03-24-24 | Colorado v. Marquette -3.5 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Marquette vs. Colorado 12:10 PM ET Game# 829-830 Play On: Marquette -3.5 Marquette reached the Big East Conference Tournament Final where they fell to the defending national champion Connecticut. They played in that tournament without star point guard Tyler Kolek who was nursing an abdominal injury. Kolek returned for Marquette’s 87-69 win over Morehead State on Friday and contributed 18 points, 11 assists, and 6 turnovers. With Kolek in the lineup, Marquette is capable of beating anybody. Colorado is coming off a 102-100 win versus Florida on Friday in a game they tried to give away in the last 2 minutes. They’ll have trouble with Marquette’s relentless defensive pressure and will be prone to a plethora of turnovers leading to easy transitions baskets for Marquette. The Golden Eagles have played a much more gueling schedule than Colorado this season and it will pay dividends in this matchup. Give me Marquette minus points. Give me Marquette minus points. |
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03-23-24 | Duquesne v. Illinois -9.5 | Top | 63-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Duquesne vs. Illinois 8:40 PM ET Game# 797-798 Play On: Illinois -9.5 Duquesne is coming off a huge upset win as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday versus #6 seed BYU of the vaunted Big 12 Conference. The #11 seed Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament champion is now 16-3 in their last 19 and that includes a current 9-game win streak. However, Illinois presents a whole different challenge than BYU. The Illini are #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are a very good offensive rebounding team. If Duquesne has a weakness defensively it’s their rebounding. Duquesne ranks #222 nationally in defensive rebounding while Illinois is #16 on the offensive glass. Illinois will also have the best player on the court in this matchup Terrance Shannon Jr. who is a huge difference maker. During his 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament and in the NCAA Round of 64 versus Morehead State during an 85-69 win, Shannon has averaged 30.5 points per contest. Lastly, Illinois has gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 following a win by 15 or more and as a favorite of 5.0 or greater. The average margin of victory in those 6 wins and covers came by a substantial average of 28.3 points per game. Give me Illinois minus points. |
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03-23-24 | Virginia Tech v. Ohio State -3.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
Virginia Tech @ Ohio State 7:00 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Ohio State -3.5 Virginia Tech has gone an abysmal 2-9 SU&ATS in true road games this season, and that includes 1-8 SU&ATS as an underdog. The Hokies have played terrible defense down the season’s final stretch while allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in 7 of their last 10 games. Conversely, during their previous 5 contests, Ohio State has averaged 81.8 points scored per game, shot 49.5% from the field and made an excellent 43.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. For whatever reason the Buckeyes have been playing great basketball since their head coach was fired while going 6-1 SU&ATS during those contests. The Buckeyes are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home while outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus points. |
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03-23-24 | Washington State +7 v. Iowa State | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Washington State vs. Iowa State 6:10 PM ET Game# 799-800 Play On: Washington State +7.0 These teams are mirror images of each other from a stylistic standpoint. Neither prefers a fast-paced game. Both are very good defensively and each are poor free throw shooting teams. It’s widely known how good of a team Iowa State is. Conversely, Washington State doesn’t get enough credit for how good they truly are. Yes, Iowa State plays in the strongest conference in America. However, the PAC-12 sent 4 teams to the NCAA Tournament and they’re a combined 5-0 thus far. This game will be much closer than most anticipate and and an outright upset isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Give me Washington State plus points. |
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03-23-24 | Dayton +10 v. Arizona | 68-78 | Push | 0 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Dayton vs. Arizona 12:45 PM ET Game# 801-802 Play On: Dayton +10.0 Dayton was listless against Nevada for the first 33 mutes of Thursday’s 1st round game. Then proceeded to put together a furious comeback that saw them overcome a 17-point deficit with 7 minutes to play and walk away with a 3-point win. The Flyers know they need a more consistent effort from start to finish if they hope to upset #2 seed Arizona. I firmly believe they’re more than capable of doing so. The great equalizer for a college basketball underdog and especially so at this time of year is an ability to make 3-point shots at a high percentage. Dayton is #3 nationally in 3-point shooting while converting on 40.2% of those attempts. Additionally, they were 8-21 (42.1%) from beyond the 3-point line in their 1st round win over Nevada. Another undervalued handicapping tidbit is the fact that Dayton is #3 nationally in free throw attempts allowed. Give me Dayton plus points. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
Northwestern @ FAU 12:15 PM ET Game# 763-764 Play On: FAU -3.0 Northwestern is been plagued by injuries down the stretch which has certainly affected their play. The Wildcats have lost 3 of their last 4. As opposed to FAU, Northwestern played an extremely weak non-conference schedule in which they faced 1 NCAA Tournament team and that resulted in a 66-57 neutral site loss to Mississippi State. FAU is an experienced team that reached the Final Four last year. They’re coming off a disappointing loss to Temple during their conference tournament. However, FAU has gone 7-0 SU this season. Being that they’re being asked to cover a small number in this contest their resiliency after a win takes on added significance. The Owls are also 7-1 SU on a neutral floor this season including quality wins over NCAA Tournament teams Texas A&M, Charleston, and Arizona. They also defeated NIT teams Virginia Tech by 34 and Loyola-Chicago by 13. The Owls are a combined 43-9 SU since the start of last season which included 20-3 when facing teams that average 18 or fewer free throw attempts per game, and an even better 15-1 SU if it was after Game 14. Give me FAU minus points. |
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03-21-24 | St. Peter's v. Tennessee -21.5 | 49-83 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
St. Peter’s vs. Tennessee 9:20 PM ET Game# 727-728 Play On: Tennessee -21.5 St. Peter’s is a terrible offensive team that hangs their hat on their defensive prowess. Even then their defensive analytics are a bit misleading when considering the snail’s pace they play at. The Peacocks are #338 nationally when it comes to offensive tempo. That’s fine if you are playing with a lead, but it’s highly improbable that’ll be the case against one of the country’s best teams on Thursday. I mentioned how bad St. Peter’s is offensively. Well, Tennessee is #3 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Volunteers have also faced an extremely tougher schedule than their opponent on Thursday and has a ton more experience. I look for Tennessee to excel at forcing St. Peter’s turnovers in this contest and turning them into a sizable amount of points via their transition game. St. Peter’s ranks #324 nationally in committing turnovers while doing so on an alarmingly high 19.6% of their offensive possessions. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton -12.5 | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Akron vs. Creighton 1:30 PM ET Game# 735-736 Play On: Creighton -12.5 Akron won the MAC Tourney by barely escaping with 3 and 1-point wins during the last 2 games. The Zips went 3-5 during their last 8 regular season games against vastly inferior opponents compared to the one they’re about to face on Thursday. Creighton is #13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and # 24 in defensive adjusted defense nationally. Creighton will outclass their MAC opponents in this one and will pull away down the stretch for a relatively easy win and cover. Give me Creighton minus points. |
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03-20-24 | Colorado v. Boise State +3 | 60-53 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Boise State vs. Colorado 9:10 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Boise State +3.0 Colorado is 1 of only 4 teams from the PAC-12 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and was one of the last teams to receive an invitation. Oregon is another PAC-12 team that’s part of the 68-team field and the only reason they made it was them winning their conference tournament. Colorado played just 1 non-conference game this season versus a team that’s in the NCAA Tournament and it resulted in a 5-point loss to Colorado State. Boise State is one of 6 teams from the Mountain West Conference to make it to the NCAA Tournament. The Broncos have gone a respectable 7-7 this season versus NCAA Tournament teams and that includes a non-conference win over St. Mary’s. Boise State is coming off a quarterfinal loss to New Mexico who was the eventual Mountain West Conference Tournament champion. Nevertheless, Boise State has gone a very profitable 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games immediately following a loss during their previous contest. Give me Boise State plus points. |
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03-19-24 | Colorado State -2.5 v. Virginia | 67-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Virginia vs. Colorado State 9:10 PM ET Game# 671-672 Play On: Colorado State -2.5 Quite frankly, I have no idea how Virginia received one of the final at-large-bids for the NCAA Tournament. They needed overtime to eliminate Boston College in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. Then they lost the following game in overtime against #10 seed NC State. Not exactly convincing results for a team on the proverbial bubble. Additionally, this is a Virginia team that scored 49 points or fewer in 4 of their last 8 games while going 4-4 during that stretch. Colorado State played in a mid-major conference that has 6 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Rams also posted quality non-conference wins over Colorado and Creighton who are both NCAA Tournament teams. Furthermore, they lost by just 3 to St. Marty’s who’s the #5 seed in the West Region and the Colorado State was missing 2 starters in that contest due to injuries. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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03-19-24 | Richmond v. Virginia Tech -6 | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Richmond @ Virginia Tech 9:00 PM ET Game# 679-680 Play On: Virginia Tech -6.0 Richmond is coming off a very successful 24-9 season. However, as the #1 seed in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament they were upset in the quarterfinals by St. Joseph’s which dashed their hopes of playing in the NCAA Tournament. It was a bitter pill to swallow for the Spiders and teams of this nature more times than not are flat in NIT 1st round games. It’s also worth noting, that Richmond is 0-3 in non-conference true road games and none of those opponents are NCAA Tournament bound. Virginia Tech is 14-2 at home this season with a terrific point-per game differential of +15.3. Their lone home defeats cames versus North Carolina who is a #1 seed in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament and Duke who’s a #4 seed in the South Region. Virginia Tech also has 2 quality non-conference wins over Iowa State (27-7) and Boise State (22-10). They also lost a narrow 2-point decision to nationally ranked South Carolina (26-7). Give me Virginia Tech minus points. |
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03-19-24 | South Florida v. UCF -6.5 | 83-77 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
South Florida vs. Central Florida 9:10 PM ET Game# 685-686 Play On: Central Florida -6.5 The oddsmakers are speaking loudly to us with this line and the ensuing sharp action screams louder than even that. We have a South Florida team who was the AAC regular season champ that’s 24-7 overall and was recently ranked in the AP Top 25. Yet, they’re an underdog versus a UCF team who’s 17-15 which includes 7-11 during Big 12 Conference regular season action. The difference in this matchup is the level of competition both teams played this season. South Florida has played just 3 games versus NCAA Tournament teams this season and went 1-2 in those contests. Furthermore, none of those 3 games came against non-conference opponents. Conversely, UCF has posted 4 wins this season versus NCAA teams the likes of Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, and Texas. By the way, all 4 of those wins occurred at home. Give me UCF minus points. |
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03-17-24 | Temple v. UAB -7 | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Temple vs. UAB 3:15 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: UAB -7.0 Yesterday, NC State became only the 2nd team in NCAA basketball history to capture a conference tournament championship by winning 5 games in 5 days. Today, Temple tries to duplicate that feat in the AAC Tournament. I will go out on a limb and say that’s highly unlikely. Especially when considering this was a Temple team that went 12-19 overall and 5-13 during conference play before entering the postseason. These teams met just 10 days ago at Temple, and UAB crushed the Owls 100-72. The Blazers earned a double bye after going 12-6 in conference play so it will be only their 3rd game in 3 days. UAB has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with an average victory margin of 13.5 points per game. Temple’s magical and improbable run ends today with a huge thud. Give me UAB minus points. |
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03-16-24 | Texas-Arlington +6.5 v. Grand Canyon | 74-89 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
UT-Arlington vs. Grand Canyon 11:30 PM ET Game# 639-640 Play On: UT-Arlington +6.5 UT-Arlington enters this WAC Championship Game on an 8-game win streak which also saw them cover in 7 of those contests with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per contest. UTA will be playing with double revenge after losing both regular season matchups to Grand Canyon by 6 and 7-points. However, when looking inside the numbers of those 2 results I uncovered a real oddity that attributed to Grand Canyon wins. They were awarded an astronomically high 72 free throws combined and converted on an exceptional 81.9% of those opportunities as well. Otherwise, UTA held them to a combined 33.6% shooting from the flor in those head-to-head meetings. UTA has also gone an extremely profitable 17-4-1 ATS versus conference opponents this season. Give me UT-Arlington plus points. |
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03-16-24 | New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
New Mexico vs. San Diego State 6:00 PM ET Game# 623-624 Play On: New Mexico +2.5 As we’ve witnessed throughout this year’s conference tournament action, teams on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament has succeeded win either winning or covering as an underdog more times than not. Such has been the case for New Mexico. The Lobos have played with a high degree of urgency and desperation during their 3 wins in the MWC Tournament. They’ve turned in superb performances on each occasion and surprisingly have been extremely good defensively, which hasn’t been their forte this season. The Lobos allowed 61.0 points per game while holding Air Force, Boise State, and Colorado State to just 34.0% shooting. Despite of that, Joe Lunardi has New Mexico as the last team in with Missouri Valley Conference regular season champ Indiana State and Virginia lurking behind. So, I fully expect their desperation and urgency to be at a high level in the championship game and not leave it up to the NCAA Tournament committee whether or not they’ll be dancing next week. Furthermore, the Lobos are 6-0 SU&ATS this season on a neutral court with an average victory margin of 18.3 points per game. San Diego State needed overtime in the quarterfinal round to knock off UNLV and then won decisively over #1 seed Utah State by 16. However, the Aztecs are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 immediately following 2 consecutive wins and were outscored by 7.7 points per game. San Diego State is projected to be a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they have no uncertainty in that regard. Give me New Mexico plus points. |
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03-16-24 | Nebraska +4.5 v. Illinois | 87-98 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Nebraska vs. Illinois 3:30 PM ET Game# 611-612 Play On: Nebraska +4.5 Illinois was very lucky to escape with a 3-point win versus #10 seed Ohio State yesterday. During the last 3 seasons under current head coach Brad Underwood, Illinois has gone a dismal 2-10 ATS immediately following a win by 6 or fewer. The Illini have been poor defensively over their previous 5 contests while allowing 78.4 points per game while opponents shot a combined 47.6% and made an alarmingly high 45.5% of their 3-point shot attempts. That shapes up to be problematic considering Nebraska is 4th withing Big 10 play when it comes to 3-point shooting while converting 38.1% of those long-distance attempts. Nebraska is enjoying one the best seasons in program history and has been surging down the stretch while going 7-1 SU&ATS during their previous 8 contests. The Cornhuskers turned in a masterpiece in yesterday’s quarterfinals while walloping Indiana 93-66. Nebraska has held their last 3 and 6 of their previous 8 opponents to less than 40% shooting. They went up against Illinois once during regular season action and lost 87-84 in overtime but easily covered as a 10.0-point road underdog. They also went 12-28 (42.1%) on their 3-point shot attempts in that contest while holding Illinois to 9-34 (26.5%). Give me Nebraska plus points. |
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03-15-24 | Ohio State v. Illinois -5 | Top | 74-77 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Illinois 6:30 PM ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Illinois -5.0 Yes, Ohio State has responded well since the firing of their head coach Chris Holtman. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. However, just 1 of those 5 teams had a winning record in league play and that was Nebraska at 12-8. The other 4 teams had a combined record of 30-50 in Nig 10 regular season action. I truly believe that Illinois is a legitimate contender to reach the Final Four. They finished 14-6 in the Big 10 and was second only to #3 ranked Purdue (28-3). Illinois easily won their only regular season games against Ohio State this season 87-75 and easily covered as a 3.0-point road favorite. Give me Illinois for a top-rated wager. |
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03-15-24 | South Carolina v. Auburn -7.5 | 55-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
South Carolina vs. Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 821-822 Play On: Auburn -7.5 I was on South Carolina yesterday with they covered as a favorite versus Arkansas. However, I’m fading them in today’s matchup versus the Auburn Tigers. Auburn has beaten South Carolina in each of their last 7 meeting which includes a 101-61 home win this season. Each of Auburn’s 24 wins this season have come by 11 points or more. South Carolina has vastly overachieved this season on their way to a terrific 26-6 record so far. However, they just don’t match up well against the style of play in which Auburn has exhibited this season. Give me Auburn minus points. |
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03-14-24 | Villanova +4 v. Marquette | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Villanova vs. Marquette 9:30 PM ET Game# 749-750 Play On: Villanova +4.0 Villanova is coming off a narrow 1-point win yesterday over a 3-29 DePaul team that entered that matchup on a 19-game losing streak. That was a contest in which the Wildcats closed as a massive 24.5-point favorite. It’s been a frustrating season for Villanova fans who have witnessed their team going just 18-14 thus far. Yet, here they are as just a short underdog versus #10 ranked Marquette (23-8) who they’ve already lost to twice this season. They’re begging us to lay the small number on a nationally ranked team versus a seemingly average opponent at best. However, I’m going contrarian here and not taking the bait. Give me Villanova plus points. |
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03-14-24 | Boston College +5.5 v. Virginia | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Boston College vs. Virginia 9:30 PM ET Game# 733-734 Play On: Boston College +5.5 Virginia had a double bye in the ACC Tournament after finishing in the top 4 of their league standings. Conversely, Boston College played in each of the previous 2 days while earning impressive wins over Miami by 16 and Clemson by 21with each coming as an underdog. The Eagles will also be out to revenge a late season 4-point home loss to Virginia in a game they looked poised to win for a majority of that contest. Don’t look now but Boston College enters today on a 4-game win streak and brimming with confidence. Conversely, Virginia went a subpar went just 3-4 SU in their last 7 regular season games. The Cavaliers are coming off a 72-57 home win in their previous contest. Nonetheless, Virginia has gone 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3 immediately following a win and lost by a substantial average of 23.3 points per game. Give me Boston College plus points. |
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03-14-24 | Arkansas v. South Carolina -5.5 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Arkansas vs. South Carolina 3:30 PM ET Game# 769-770 Play On: South Carolina -5.5 Arkansas is coming off a 90-85 overtime comeback win yesterday versus SEC cellar dweller Vanderbilt. Despite their 25-6 record, South Carolina has been disrespected on a national scale on many fronts. This Gamecocks team is 11-3 SU and 11-2-1 ATS this season in away and neutral site games. Furthermore, they went 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 SEC road games this season. South Carolina won against Arkansas 77-64 earlier this season in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog and was the only contest played between these teams. Give me South Carolina minus points. Give me South Carolina minus points. |
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03-14-24 | USC +9.5 v. Arizona | 49-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
USC vs. Arizona 3:00 PM ET Game# 775-776 Play On: USC +9.5 There’s no denying that Arizona is one of the best teams in the country and a legitimate contender to win a national championship. However, we are talking about a a first-round conference tournament game that means very little to the Wildcats other than whether they’ll be a #1 or #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. We must also keep in mind, Arizona was unbeaten at home this season, but just 9-6 SU in away or neutral site games while allowing an alarmingly high 80.4 points per contest. USC is just 15-17, but they’ve gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS during their last 4 games which included an upset win over Arizona. The Trojans were also 6-2 SU in their last 8 with their lone defeats coming by 3 points on each occasion. Give me USC plus points. |
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03-14-24 | St. John's v. Seton Hall +4 | 91-72 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Seton Hall vs. St. John’s 2:30 PM ET Game# 745-746 Play On: Seton Hall +4.0 Seton Hall has owned St. John’s since the start of last season while winning all 4 matchups and with an average victory margin of 13.7 points per game. During this season’s 2 regular season matchups St. John’s was held to 63.5 points scored per game and a horrible 26.5% shooting. Seton Hall amassed an alarmingly high 28 offensive rebounds in those contests and went to the free throw line 69 times. The Pirates are #18 nationally and #3 in Big East action in free throw shooting percentage. Give me Seton Hall plus points. |
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03-13-24 | California Baptist v. Utah Valley -5.5 | 74-63 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Cal Baptist @ Utah Valley State Game# 701-702 Play On: Utah Valley State -5.5 These are 2 teams that have been clearly headed in opposite directions. Cal Baptist is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9. Conversely, UVSU has gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS during their previous 8 games. UVSU is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 versus Cal Baptist with an average victory margin of 11.8 points per game. Give me Utah Valley State minus points. |
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03-11-24 | East Tennessee State +10 v. Samford | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
East Tennessee State vs. Samford 7:00 PM ET Game# 685-686 Play On: East Tennessee State +10.0 Samford is an excellent 3-point shooting team with an outstand season record of 28-5. However, they’ll be facing an ETSU team which has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 and held their opponents to only 28.6% shooting from beyond the 3-point line. ETSU has also gone a very profitable 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS during line games this season immediately following 2 consecutive wins. ETSU lost both regular season meeting versus Samford but did go a combined 19-47 (40.5%) from 3-point territory. ETSU has also made 40.2% of their 3-point shot attempts during their current 5-game win streak. Give me East Tennessee State plus points. |
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03-10-24 | Michigan State v. Indiana +4 | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Indiana 4:30 PM ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Indiana +4.0 Michigan State is coming off a 4-point home win over Nebraska which snapped a 3-game losing streak. The Spartans are just 3-6 SU during conference road games this season. Indiana has been a big disappointment for most of the season. However, they coming in riding high with a 3-game win streak. This will be the Hoosiers final home game of the season which will assuredly give them a sizable emotional lift. Give me Indiana plus points. |
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03-09-24 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 46-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Houston 4:00 PM ET Game# 665-666 Play On: Houston -8.0 Kansas is 2-6 SU in conference away games this season and that includes 1-5 during their last 6. Conversely, Houston has gone a perfect 16-0 SU this season at home with an average victory margin of 27.6 points per game. Furthermore, Houston will be playing with big time revenge stemming from an earlier season 78-65 loss at Kansas. Houston is one of if not the best defensive team in the country but was embarrassed in the loss to Kansas when the Jayhawks shot a blistering hot 68.9% from the floor. I’m here to tell you that was an aberration. Give me Houston minus points. |
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03-09-24 | Creighton v. Villanova +1.5 | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Creighton @ Villanova 2:30 PM ET Game# 637-638 Play On: Villanova +1.5 Villanova is coming off a disappointing 66-56 loss at Seton Hall. However, the Wildcats are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a loss and won by 18 points or more on each occasion. Despite going 3-2 in their last 5, Villanova has been excellent defensively while allowing just 62.6 points per contest and their opponents shot just a combined 38.7% from the field. Villanova has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus Creighton with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. The current total in this contest is 136.5. Villanova has gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home this season when the total was between 130.0 to 139.5. Their only SU loss came to #2 UConn 69-68. The Wildcats are also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home while winning by an average of 20.5 points per game. Give me Villanova plus points. |
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03-09-24 | Arkansas +14.5 v. Alabama | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Alabama 12:00 PM ET Game# 603-604 Play On: Arkansas +14.5 I really like how hard Arkansas has competed down the stretch despite them having a ho-hum season. Yes, the Razorbacks are only 3-3 SU in their last 6 but they covered on 5 of those occasions. Arkansas is also a perfect 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season which included an upset win at Texas A&M and an overtime loss at Kentucky. Alabama has lost their last 2 and 3 of their previous 4. The Crimson Tide is one of the more explosive offensive teams in the nation but they leave much to be desired on the defensive end. Throughout their previous 5 contest, Alabama has allowed 96.8 points per game and opponents have averaged a massive 30 free throw attempts per outing. That can be problematic against an Arkansas team that has averaged 88.8 points per game over their last 5 and went an excellent 85.0% from the free throw line. Give me Arkansas plus points. |
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03-07-24 | Navy +4 v. Boston University | 61-70 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Navy @ Boston U. 7:00 PM ET Game# 606575-306576 Play On: Navy +4.0 Both teams enter this contest on a 5-game win streak. However, Boston U. is an uninspiring 8-6 SU at home this season. The Terriers are coming off a 94-84 win over Holy Cross. Boston U. is 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS this season in lined games following a win by 10-points or greater. During their current 5 game win streak Navy has covered on each occasion and made 42.0% of their 3-point shot attempts. They also allowed only 59.8 points per game while holding opponents to 35.8% shooting from the field. Navy is #1 in Patriot League Conference play in free throw attempts and Boston is dead last in free throw attempts allowed. Navy is an extremely profitable 8-1 ATS this season after covering 2 or more games in a row and averaged outscoring their opponents by 7.5 points per game. Give me Navy plus points. |
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03-05-24 | San Diego State v. UNLV +2.5 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ UNLV 11:00 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: UNLV +2.5 San Diego State has gone 14-0 at home this season. Nevertheless, all 7 of their losing this season have occurred in true road games. As a matter of fact, San Diego State is 0-6 SU&ATS this season during true road games when their point-spread was between +3.5 and -3.5. UNLV enters this contest having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS during their previous 10 games. The Rebels will also be playing with same season revenge stemming from an earlier season 72-61 loss at San Diego State. Give me UNLV. |
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03-05-24 | Spurs v. Rockets -7.5 | Top | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Spurs @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Rockets -7.5 Houston is 7-0 SU&ATS this season as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and with an average victory margin of 178.6 points per game. San Antonio are coming off 2 consecutive wins for just the 4th time this season while defeating Oklahoma City 132-118 and Indiana 117-105. However, the Spurs are an abysmal 0-9 SU&ATS this season as an away underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5 and were outscored by a massive average of 23.0 points per game. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this season immediately following 2 wins in a row. Give me Houston minus points. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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03-05-24 | Alabama +2 v. Florida | 87-105 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 645-646 Play On: Alabama +2.0 Alabama is 5-0 SU in conference away games this season versus teams not currently ranked and won by an average of 10.4 points per game. Alabama is coming off a conference home loss to Tennessee this past Saturday. The Crimson Tide are 3-0 SU&ATS this season in conference games this season immediately following a conference loss. The Crimson Tide shot 38.3% from the floor in that loss to Tennessee in their previous contest. It was just the 4th time all season that Alabama shot less than 40% and in their previous 3 immediately after that occurred, they averaged 103.0 points scored per game. Alabama is battle tested while having gone 20-9 against the 2nd toughest schedule in the country. The Crimson Tide have also won the last 4 head-to-head meetings versus Florida. Give me Alabama. |
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03-05-24 | Robert Morris v. IUPU Ft Wayne -10.5 | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Robert Morris @ IPFW 7:00 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: IPFW -10.5 These teams just squared off in their final regular season game with IPFW posting an 83-65 home win. IPFW has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite and won by an average of 19.7 points per game. Robert Morris enters the first round of the Horizon Conference Tournament on a 6-game losing streak and was outscored by a decisive margin of 18.0 points per contest. Give me IPFW minus points. |
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03-03-24 | Clippers +1.5 v. Wolves | 89-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Clippers @ Timberwolves 3:40 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Clippers +1.5 Minnesota started the season by going 22-2 SU in their first 24 at home. Nevertheless, sinced then they’re only 5-5 SU on their home floor. The Clippers are 30-10 SU in their last 40 games and that includes 17-6 SU on the road. Los Angeles is coming off home games in each of their previous 3 outings. The Clippers are a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following playing their previous 3 on the road and won by an average of 15.9 points per game. Give me the Clippers plus points. |
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03-03-24 | Warriors v. Celtics -10.5 | 88-140 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Celtics 3:40 PM ET Game# 583-584 Play On: Celtics -10.5 The oddsmakers are begging you to take the red-hot Golden State Warriors as an 11.0-point underdog. After all, the Warriors have gone 8-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 on the road. However, please keep in mind that their star point guard Stephen Curry is listed as questionable as he’s nursing bursitis in his right knee. Boston has won 10 in a row and covered each of their previous 5. During that 5-0 SU&ATS stretch, Boston outscored their opponents by an enormous 25.4 points per game. Boston has shot 50% or better in each of their last 9 and 12 of its previous 15 games. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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03-02-24 | Iowa v. Northwestern -2 | 87-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Northwestern 5:30 PM ET Game# 711-712 Play On: Northwestern -2.0 Northwestern is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in conference home games this season which includes notable wins versus Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska. This is a game the Wildcats can ill afford to lose if they hope to be invited to the NCAA Tournament. Iowa is 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 conference road games and has been among the worst defensive teams during Big 10 Conference action. Give me Northwestern minus points. |
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03-02-24 | Villanova v. Providence -2.5 | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Villanova @ Providence 12:00 PM ET Game# 601-602 Play On: Providence -2.5 Providence is coming off an embarrassing 91-69 road loss at Marquette on Wednesday. However, the Friars are 4-0 SU in their last 4 conference home games. Conversely, Villanova is a dismal 1-5 SU in their last 6 on the road with their only win coming over Georgetown who has a horrible 2-15 Big East record. Villanova is certainly not terrible, but this is one of the weaker Wildcats teams we’ve seen in recent years. Providence will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 68-50 win at Villanova earlier this season. Give me Providence minus points. |
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03-01-24 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago +1.5 | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Dayton @ Loyola-Chicago 9:00 PM ET Game# 887-888 Play On: Loyola-Chicago +1.5 Loyola-Chicago got caught looking ahead to a matchup with nationally ranked Dayton in their previous game and lost at St. Bonaventure 79-64. However, the Ramblers are 6-0 SU versus Division 1 opponents this season following a SU loss and won by an average of 10.1 points per contest. Loyola is also 5-0 in their last 5 conference home games and with an average victory margin of 11.0 points per contest. Dayton is a terrific 22-5 this season. Nevertheless, they’ve gone 1-3 SU in their last 4 on the road. Give me Loyola Chicago. |
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03-01-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -9.5 | 110-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Celtics -9.5 This line has moved from 7.5 to 9.5 due to the availability status of star point guard Luka Doncic who has both a sprained ankle and broken nose. Considering this will be the Mavs 3rd road game in 4 days and the finale of a 4-game in 6-day road trip, I would be surprised if Dallas doesn’t air on the side of caution and opt not to play Doncic. Conversely, Boston will be playing on 2 days rest, and this will be only their 2nd game in 6 days. The Celtics enter today riding an 8-game win streak. That includes covering each of their previous 4 while winning by a substantial margin of 24.7 points per game. During this current win streak, Boston has shot 51.8% or better on each occasion and also allowed 105 points or fewer on 5 of those occasions. They’ll be facing a Dallas team that allows 117.6 points per game and opponents have shot 48.2% against them this season. Boston is 27-3 SU at home this season while outscoring opponents by an average of 13.8 points per game. Saying they’ve been dominant on their own floor would be the vastest of understatements. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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02-29-24 | USC v. Washington State -7 | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
USC @ Washington State 10:30 PM ET Game# 841-842 Play On: Washington State -7.0 Washington State is 13-1 SU at home this season and that includes 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 with an average victory margin of 13.4 points per game. The Cougars are also 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall. USC is coming off a 72-64 upset win at UCLA. The Trojans are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a win. USC has been dominated on the glass throughout their previous 5 contests with a -16 rebound per game differential. The Trojans are last in PAC-12 action when it comes to defensive rebounding while Washington State ranks 2nd on the offensive glass. Look for that to be a key factor tonight in the Cougars physically wearing down USC as the game progresses while forcing the to defend on multiple Washington State offensive possessions. Give me Washington State minus points. |
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02-29-24 | Hofstra +5 v. NC-Wilmington | 69-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Hofstra @ NC-Wilmington 7:00 PM ET Game# 773-774 Play On: Hofstra +5.0 Hofstra is 7-1 SU in their last 8 and is now 12-1 SU since last season in February. During their previous 5 contests Hofstra has averaged a lofty 79.2 points scored per game, shot 51.0% from the field, made an excellent 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts, and went 76.2% from the free throw line. That shapes up to be problematic for a NC-Wilmington team that’s 1-2 SU in their last with opponents shooting 50.0% from the field and made 40.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. Their 2 losses came as a 9.0 and 16.5-point favorite. This will be the only regular season meeting between these teams. Hofstra will be playing with revenge stemming from a conference tournament loss to Wilmington as a 6.5-point favorite. Give me Hofstra plus points. |
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02-28-24 | Lakers +3.5 v. Clippers | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Lakers @ Clippers 10:10 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Lakers +3.5 The Lakers are coming off a 123-113 loss at Phoenix. However, they’ve gone 3-0 SU in their last 3 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 10.3 points per game, and 2 of those wins came as an underdog. The Clippers are an uninspiring 3-4 and money-draining 1-6 ATS over their previous 7 games. That includes 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Give me the Lakers plus points. |
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02-28-24 | Mavs v. Raptors +3.5 | 136-125 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Mavericks @ Raptors 7:40 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Raptors +3.5 Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and is coming off last night’s disheartening 121-119 loss at Cleveland. I described that as disheartening because the Cavaliers his a 59-foot 3-point shot at the buzzer to steal that win. That usually will take an emotional toll on a team after sustaining such a brutal loss and I strongly believe that will be the case in this matchup. Toronto will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days and has a decided advantage regarding rest. Toronto also enters tonight having gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. Give me Toronto plus points. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State -7 | 77-74 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Nevada @ Colorado State 10:30 PM ET Game# 659-660 Play On: Colorado State -7.0 This point-spread was an attention getter for me with Colorado State opening as a 5.5-point favorite and quickly moving to 7.5 against a very good Nevada team that won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7. This is what I deem to be a heavy line and a number that most won’t be willing to lay with the home favorite. I’m not one of those bettors. However, this is a Colorado State team that’s 14-1 SU at home which includes 7-0 during Mountain West Conference action with an average victory margin of 11.4 points per contest. The Rams have tightened the screws defensively over their last 5 outing while allowing just 64.4 points per game and holding opponents to a combined 38.1% shooting from the floor. The Rams will be playing with same season revenge having lost at Nevada 77-64 earlier this season. They’re 2-0 SU&ATS at home this season while playing with same season revenge with wins over Boise State 75-62 and Utah State 75-55. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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02-27-24 | Heat -7 v. Blazers | Top | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Trailblazers @ Heat 10:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Heat -7.0 Portland is coming off a 93-80 home loss to Charlotte. The Trailblazers have gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 13.5 or less and after game in which they scored 95 points or fewer. The lost those 7 contests by an enormous margin of 26.6 points per game. Portland is also 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 contests and lost by an average of 14.0 points per game. Miami is coming off last night’s win at Sacramento. The Heat are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with all coming as a road underdog. Additionally, the heat have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite and won by 13.7 points per game. I have little concern about Miami playing with no rest this evening since they’re recently coming off the all-star break. Give me the Heat minus points. |
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02-27-24 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 91-89 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 621-622 Play On: Mississippi State -3.5 I’m of the opinion they’re giving us the winner in this matchup with unranked Mississippi State being a favorite over 6th ranked Kentucky. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the ranked road underdog in this spot. The Bulldogs will be playing with revenge stemming from a 90-77 loss at Kentucky earlier this season. That was a contest in which Kentucky was awarded 17 more free throw attempts than Mississippi State and the Wildcats outscored the Bulldogs by 17 points from the charity stripe. That type of free throw shooting disparity is unlikely to occur again. Kentucky has gone just 2-4 SU in their last 6 conference away games. Conversely, Mississippi State enter this contest on a 5-game win streak and that includes going 4-0 ATS if they were favorite by 9.5 or less with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give me Mississippi State minus points. |
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02-25-24 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Nebraska 6:30 PM ET Game# 857-858 Play On: Nebraska -6.5 I know Minnesota has been playing very well in recent weeks. However, they’re still just 2-5 SU on the road. I also can’t ignore the fact that Nebraska is a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS during conference home game this season. The Cornhuskers will also be out to revenge a 76-65 loss at Minnesota earlier this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game. Give me Nebraska minus points. |
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02-24-24 | Utah v. Colorado -6.5 | 65-89 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Utah @ Colorado 9:00 PM ET Game# 791-792 Play On: Colorado -6.5 Utah is a dismal 1-6 SU in conference away games with their only victory coming in last Sunday’s 70-69 at UCLA. Conversely, Colorado is 6-1 SU in conference home games. During PAC-12 play, Utah is the worst team in free throw attempts allowed. On the other hand, Colorado is #1 during conference action in free throw attempts for and also #1 in free throw percentage while making them at a 78.5% clip. Colorado will also be out to atone for an earlier season 5-point loss at Utah. Give me Colorado minus points. |
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02-24-24 | Mississippi State v. LSU +2.5 | 87-67 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ LSU 8:30 PM ET Game# 781-782 Play On: LSU +2.5 Mississippi State is coming off a 12-point home win over their bitter in-state rival Ole Miss. Now they must go on the road to face a 14-12 LSU team and may get caught looking ahead to hosting #17 Kentucky on Monday night. It’s a textbook sandwich and trap game. Furthermore, although Mississippi State has a very good 11-2 home record, the Bulldogs have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road, and the lone win came over a Missouri team which currently is on a 13-game losing streak. Despite their mediocre record, LSU is showing signs of life after upsetting #20 South Carolina on the road and knocking off #17 Kentucky at home during their previous 2 games. I like the home team in this spot that’s riding a wave of momentum versus the high potential of the visiting team being flatter than a pancake. Give me LSU. |
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02-24-24 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -3 | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh 5:30 PM ET Game# 717-718 Play On: Pittsburgh -3.0 Virginia Tech is coming off a dominating 75-41 home win over a very good Virginia team. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is coming being routed 91-58 at Wake Forest in their last time out. Yet, it’s Pittsburgh who comes up favorite in this spot. This is a classic example of unsuccessful sports bettors falling prey to a short memory. Taking the underdog in this situation is in my eyes a sucker play. Give me Pittsburgh minus points. |
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02-24-24 | George Mason v. Loyola-Chicago -3 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
George Mason @ Loyola-Chicago 4:30 PM ET Game# 701-702 Play On: Loyola-Chicago -3.0 George Mason is coming off their first ever win in program history over a Top 25 opponents when they knocked off #16 Daton 74-70 the last time out. This has all the potential for a letdown spot for George Mason given the emotional high carried away from and during that win. It’s only human nature that George Mason won’t come close to the intensity level and mental sharpness it had during that upset win. Additionally, George Mason is 1-4 in their last 5 conference away games. Although Dayton and Richmond have made plenty of headlines this season in the Atlantic 10 Conference, Loyola-Chicago is a sneaky good team. Loyola enters Saturday’s contest having won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10, and 13 of their previous 15 contests. Furthermore, tjhey already won at George Mason 85-79 earlier this season. Give me Loyola-Chicago minus points for a Top Play wager. |
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02-24-24 | North Carolina v. Virginia +2.5 | 54-44 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Virginia 4:00 PM ET Game# 669-670 Play On: Virginia +2.5 Virginia is coming off a humiliating 75-41 at Virginia Tech. The good news is the Cavaliers are 5-1 SU immediately following a loss this season and 7-1 SU during ACC home games. Conversely, North Carolina is coming off a 96-81 home win over Virginia Tech. It’s well worth noting, the #10 Tar Heels have gone 0-3 SU in their last 3 following a win. North Carolina is just 3-3 SU in their last 6 overall which included road losses versus unranked teams in Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Give me Virginia plus the points. |
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02-24-24 | South Carolina v. Ole Miss -2.5 | 72-59 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
South Carolina @ Ole Miss 3:30 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Ole Miss -2.5 We have unranked Ole Miss as a short home favorite versus #20 South Carolina and in my opinion rightfully so. After a surprising 23-3 start to the season, South Carolina has dropped their last 2 games by 40 at Auburn and then in their previous contest was upset by LSU as a sizable 8.0-point home favorite. Ole Miss has lost 4 of their last 5 but 3 of those contests occurred on the road including a narrow 68-65 defeat at South Carolina. The Rebels are 13-1 SU at home this season with their lone defeat coming against #14 Auburn. South Carolina has been exposed. Give me Ole Miss minus points. |
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02-24-24 | Houston v. Baylor +2.5 | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Houston @ Baylor 12:00 PM ET Game# 607-608 Play On: Baylor +2.5 Houston is coming off a hard fought 8-point home win over #6 Iowa State. The Cougars are 23-3 and ranked #2 nationally. However, all 3 of their loses came in conference away games versus Iowa State, Kansas, and TCU. Baylor is coming off a disappointing 7-point loss at #25 BYU. The Bears return home where they’re 13-1 this season with their lone defeat coming in triple overtime to TCU. Unranked Baylor already owns 3 home wins versus ranked teams over #6 Iowa State, #23 Texas Tech, and #25 Baylor. They also defeated #14 Auburn and #24 Florida on neutral courts earlier this season. This is great spot for the home underdog to make a statement and further improve their season resume. Give me Baylor plus points. |
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02-23-24 | Bucks +4.5 v. Wolves | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Bucks @ Timberwolves 10:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Bucks +4.5 This line makes little sense to me with Minnesota being just a short home favorite against a struggling Bucks team. Especially when considering, Minnesota walloped the Bucks 129-105 at Milwaukee just 2 weeks ago. When these types of situations occur, I am apt to having a contrarian mind set. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses. However, the Bucks are 5-1 SU this season following losses in each of their previous 2 games. Minnesota is 4-0 SU&ATS in their previous 4 games played. The Timberwolves started the season 17-2 SU in their first 19 at home but have gone just 2-3 since. Milwaukee is coming off a disheartening loss to Memphis in their previous game as a massive 12.0-point home favorite. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 11 days for Milwaukee. Any NBA team that’s coming off a double-digit favorite SU loss and is playing in their 3rd game or less over the previous 10 days, has seen those teams go 28-6 SU (82.4%) since the start of the 1996-1997 season. The SU betting angle is significant since it backs the underdog in this specific matchup. Give me the Bucks plus points. |
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02-23-24 | Heat v. Pelicans -3.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Heat @ Pelicans 10:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Pelicans-3.5 New Orleans is 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-conference home favorite of between 2.5 to 13.0 and won by a convincing average margin of 18.9 points per game. The Pelicans are coming off last night’s 127-105 blowout win over Houston. They’ve now won 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9. They’ve also won their previous 3 at home by a decisive margin of 22.3 points per game. Miami returns from the all-star break coming off road wins at Milwaukee and Philadelphia with both coming as an underdog. Those wins improved Miami’s season record to 30-25 (.545). Any NBA team like the Pelicans that is facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU wins as an underdog, and that opponent has a win percentage of between .510 to .600, resulted in those teams like New Orleans going 63-26 ATS (70.8%) since the 19969-1997 season began. Give me the Pelicans minus points. |
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02-22-24 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic -6 | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
SMU @ FAU 7:00 PM ET Game# 741-742 Play On: FAU -6.0 Both teams are 10-3 in conference play. However, this is an FAU team built for these big game situations such as these. Thw Owls are an experienced team and one that reached the Final 4 last spring. FAU also own impressive non-conference wins this season over #4 Arizona, Texas A&M, Butler, and Virginia Tech. FAU is coming off a 4-point loss at surging South Florida in their previous game. Nonetheless, the Owls have been resilient this season while going 4-0 SU immediately following a loss and winning by 13.7 points per game. SMU has won 6 straight but 4 of those were at home. The Mustangs are just 3-3 SU this season in conference away games. Give me FAU minus points. |
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02-21-24 | Florida v. Alabama -9 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Florida @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET Game# 679-680 Play On: Alabama -9.0 Florida has gone 7-1 in their last 8 games which included wins over #14 Auburn and #17 Kentucky. Yet, they find themselves as a heavy underdog in this contest and for good reason in my opinion. Alabama is 13-1 SU &12-2 ATS at home this season and outscored their opponents by an enormous average of 26.6 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve gone 6-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season with a substantial average victory margin of 21.1 points per game. Alabama is #1 in SEC play when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency. Conversely, Florida has allowed 80.2 points per game in SEC action this season. Additionally, Alabama is a much better defensive team than they’re given credit for and especially when considering the torrid offensive pace they play at. Give me Alabama minus points. |
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02-20-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Maryland @ Wisconsin 9:00 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Wisconsin -7.0 Maryland has gone 1-4 SY&ATS in their last 5 which includes 0-3 ATS as an underdog. The Terrapins are a very good defensive team but can’t put the ball in the ocean offensively. During conference action, Marland has shot 39.8% from the field and made a poor 28.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. This can be perceived to be a heavy number to cover for a Wisconsin team which is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. However, the Badgers are 11-2 SU at home this season with their lone defeats coming against #5 Tennessee and #3 Purdue. Additionally, Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in conference home games and that includes 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS as a favorite. Give me Wisconsin minus points. |
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02-18-24 | Seton Hall +6.5 v. St. John's | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Seton Hall vs. St. John’s 5:00 PM ET Game# 861-862 Play On: Seton Hall +6.5 I see an ample amount of betting value in the underdog Seton Hall Pirates in this game. St. John’s is a dismal 2-7 SU in their last 9 games. Seton Hall is #1 in offensive rebounding and #2 in free throw percentage during Big East play. Conversely, St. John’s is next to last in defensive rebound and last in free throw percentage during Big East action. Give me Seton Hall plus points. |
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02-17-24 | Nevada v. UNLV -2 | 69-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
Nevada @ UNLV 11:30 PM ET Game# 815-816 Play On: UNLV -2.0 Nevada 919-6) is coming off a gauntlet of 3-games against some of the best teams the Mountain West Conference has to offer in Utah State (21-4), San Diego State (19-6) , and New Mexico (20-5). They managed to win 2 of those 3 contests with the previous 2 resulting in an overtime home win over San Diego State and a 1-point loss to New Mexico. Now they travel up the highway to take on in-state rival UNLV who has won 5 in a row to improve their season record to 14-9. This sets up nicely for the hometown Rebels. Give me UNLV minus points. |
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02-17-24 | Kentucky v. Auburn -8 | 70-59 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Auburn 6:00 PM ET Game# 731-732 Play On: Auburn -8.0 Auburn is 13-0 at home this season and each of those wins came by 11 points or more. They covered 9 of those 13 contests and won by an average of 22.1 points per game. Both of these teams are explosive offensively, but Auburn is better on the defensive end which will pay dividends down the stretch in this contest. Give me Auburn minus points. |
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02-17-24 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -7.5 | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Iowa State 12:00 PM ET Game# 601-602 Play On: Iowa State -7.5 The last time Texas Tech took the floor was at home on Monday night when they shellacked #6 Texas 79-50 in an ESPN nationally televised game. Now 5 days later they find themselves as a sizable 7.5-point road underdog at Iowa State and most bettors will opt to take Texas Tech after witnessing their superb performance just 5 days ago. However, Iowa State is ranked #10 nationally and 14-0 at home this season including an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS with an average victory margin of 28.5 points per game. The Cyclones have also won 6 of their last 7 games overall with their lone defeat coming by just 2-points at #12 Baylor. On the other hand, Texas Tech has lost 3 of their last 4 true road games including a 23-point loss at #3 Houston. Give me Iowa State minus points. |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -6 | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
New Mexico @ San Diego State 10:00 PM ET Game# 895-896 Play On: San Diego State -6.0 This line jumped right off the board to me. This is an extremely heavy line in my professional opinion where the oddsmakers and sportsbooks are making the underdog New Mexico Lobos (20-5) a very enticing option to wager on. Especially considering when these teams played at New Mexico on 1/13 the Lobos walked away with an 88-70 blowing win while easily covering as a 3.5-point favorite. It must be noted, San Diego State possesses an extremely strong home court where they’ve gone 12-0 this season and with an average victoy margin of 17.0 points per game. Furthermore, they’ve covered in 6 of their last 7 at home with all coming as a favorite and won by 15.7 points per contest. The tables will turn in this 2nd matchup between 2 Mountain West Conference teams that barring something unforeseen will be in the NCAA Tournament. I’m going against public perception in this one and give me San Diego State plus points. |
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02-15-24 | California v. Washington State -8.5 | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
California @ Washington State 10:00 PM ET Game# 823-824 Play On Washington State -8.5 Washington State is a red-hot 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS during their previous 9 games. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and with an average victory margin of 11.2 points per game. The Cougars will be playing with revenge stemming from an earlier season loss at California. During the past 3 seasons, Washington State is 6-0 SU&ATS at home when playing with same season revenge with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game. Give me Washington State minus points. |
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02-15-24 | Memphis +1.5 v. North Texas | 66-76 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis @ North Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 761-762 Play On: Memphis +1.5 North Texas is a solid team which plays very good defense. However, their offensive game leaves much to be desired. The Mean Green have lost 4 of their last 5 which included home defeats versus UAB and South Florida. This is a very talented Memphis team whichg by all accounts has underachieved up until this point. Nevertheless, after hitting rock bottom during a 0-4 SU&ATS stretch, they rebounded to go win their last 3. Memphis is a more than respectable 6-3 in true road games which includes quality wins at Missouri, VCU, and Texas A&M. The Tigers have allowed 30 points or fewer in the 1st half in each of their previous 3 games. Memphis has gone a perfect 12-0 SU over the past 3 season after allowing 30 points or less during the first half of each of their previous 2 contests and won by an average of 12.1 points per occurrence. I’ll take Memphis in this one. |
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02-14-24 | Western Carolina v. Samford -7.5 | 62-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Western Carolina @ Samford 9:00 ET Game# 701-702 Play On: Samford -7.5 Samford is 14-0 SU at home this season with a decisive average victory margin of 20.8 points per game. Since losing their first 2 games of the season, Samford has gone a sizzling hot 22-1. The Bulldogs have shot 46% or better in each of their previous 5 games. Samford is a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS this season after shooting 47% or better during each of their previous 3 contests and won by a substantial margin of 18.4 points per game. The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a single-digit home favorite and won by 13.3 points per game. Samford has scored 75 points or more in each of their previous 5 games and Western Carolina is coming off a 79-46 blowout win over Mercer. College Basketball favorites like Samford that have scored 75 points or more during each of their previous 5 games, and is facing an opponent like Western Carolina who’s coming off a win by 30 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 33-10 ATS (76.7%) throughout the previous 5 season. The average line in those 43 contests was 8.0 which is almost identical to the number in this matchup. Give me Samford minus points. |
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02-14-24 | Massachusetts +4.5 v. Richmond | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Massachusetts @ Richmond 7:00 PM ET Game# 661-662 Play On: Massachusetts +4.5 This line makes little sense to me. We have a Richmond team that’s 12-0 SU & 11-1 ATS at home this season. Then we have a UMass team that’s only 1-5 SU in true road games this season. Furthermore, Richmond is 9-1 in conference play while UMass is a mediocre 6-5. Yet, Richmond is only a 4.5-point home favorite. This looks to good to be true when it comes to taking Richmond as a small home favorite. When that occurs, I tend to go the opposite direction and that’s precisely wh I’m going to do here. Give me Massachusetts plus points. |
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02-13-24 | LSU v. Florida -9.5 | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
LSU @ Florida 8:00 PM ET Game# 627-628 Play On: Florida -9.5 These appears to me as a heavy line in which the sportsbooks are begging you to take the double-digit underdog. I’m not accepting that seemingly alluring invitation. Florida has won their last 4 conference home games by 12.7 points per contest. Florida has averaged 88.9 points scored per game at home while shooting 49% and went to the free throw line an alarmingly high 26 times per contest. LSU is 0-4 SU in their last 4 conference away contests and lost by 14.5 points per game. During their last 5 overall, LSU allowed 89.6 points per game while opponents shot 46% from the field and 38.6% from 3-point territory, and opponents averaged 24 free throw attempts per contest. Give me Florida minus points. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder v. Magic +3 | 127-113 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Thunder @ Magic 7:30 PM ET Game# 501-502 Play On: Orlando +3.0 Orlando is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points per game. Orlando will be playing on 2 days rest and each of their previous 2 were at home. Since the start of last season, Orlando is 7-1 SU at home after playing each of their previous 2 at home, and they outscored their opponents in those 8 contests by 10.4 points per game. Conversely, Oklahoma City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and all came as a favorite while they were outscored by 19.7 points per contest. Give me the Magic plus points. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
49ers vs. Chiefs 6:30 PM ET Pick: Chiefs +2.0 Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Kansas City is 10-1 SU&ATS in away games or at a neutral site when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. During that exact time span, Kansas City was also a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in away or neutral site games. Andy Reid teams in both Philadelphia and Kansas City have been phenomenal when coming off a bye week. Give me Kansas City plus points. |
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02-10-24 | Baylor v. Kansas -6.5 | 61-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Kansas 6:00 ET Game# 769-770 Play On: Kansas -6.5 Kansas will be in a sour mood after losing on the road to in-state rival Kansas State 75-70 in their previous game. We must keep in mind, that contest took place just 2 days after Kansas turned in a flawless performance in a convincing win over #5 Houston. The Jayhawks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season immediately following a loss and with an average victory margin of 13.7 points per game. The Jayhawks are also a perfect 12-0 at home this season with a sizable point per game differential of +16.4. Kansas has won their last 3 at home versus Baylor and by an average decisive margin of 17.7 points per game despite being just a small favorite on 2 of those occasions and an underdog on another. As good as Baylor is, their defensive play over their previous 5 games has been extremely shaky. During that span they’ve allowed opponents to shoot a combined 49.5% from and filed and an alarmingly high 44.1% from 3-point range. That shapes up as problematic against a Kansa team that at home this season has shot 53.3% from the field and made an excellent 41.3% of their 3-point shot attempts. This is another example of a heavy line that reeks of sportsbooks pleading with you to take the nationally ranked hefty underdog. I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas minus points. |
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02-10-24 | Houston v. Cincinnati +5.5 | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Houston @ Cincinnati 4:00 PM ET Game# 697-698 Play On: Cincinnati +5.5 Every avid college basketball fan knows how good Houston is defensively. However, Cincinnati is #17 nationall in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bearcats are also the top 3-point shooting team during Big 12 Conference play. Cincinnati has suffered 5 conference losses this season, but all of them came by 5 points or fewer. The Bearcats also come in with momentum and confidence after knocking off #23 Texas Tech on the road in their previous game. Give me Cincinnati plus points. |
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02-10-24 | TCU v. Iowa State -7.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
TCU @ Iowa State 2:00 PM ET Game# 669-670 Play On: Iowa State -7.5 TCU is a very good team so this appears to be a heavy line which screams of the sportsbooks begging you to take the underdog. I am going to turn down their kind gesture and opt for the much smarter money going on the home favorite. Iowa State is 13-0 SU at home this season with a massive point per game differential of +29.7. Included in those home victories were wins over #4 Kansas and #5 Houston. Iowa State won 73-72 at TCU earlier this season in a game they forced 27 Horned Frogs turnovers. That’s nothing new for an Iowa State team that ranks #2 nationally in forcing turnover. The Cyclones have forced opponents into turnovers in 26.1 of their offensive possessions this season. Iowa State is also #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give me Iowa State minus points. |
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02-09-24 | Dayton v. VCU +1.5 | 47-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Dayton @ VCU 7:00 PM ET Game# 885-886 Play On: VCU +1.5 This isn’t as much about disliking Dayton in this matchup, but more about liking VCU in this specific spot. After all, Dayton (21-3) is ranked #19 nationally and have won 16 of their last 17 games. Their only loss in that stretch came at Richmond just recently. That’s the same Richmond team that suffered their only conference loss last week at VCU. VCU is 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 games. Their lone defeat in that successful run came at St. Bonaventure in a game they blew a 20-point 2nd half lead. Additionally, they allowed just 60.0 points per game in those 8 contests and held opponents to a combined 36.8% shooting from the field. On the offensive side, VCU has made an impressive 40.4% of their 3-point shot attempts and went 84.6% from the free throw line over their previous 5 games. Give me VCU in this one. |
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02-08-24 | Arizona v. Utah +6 | 105-99 | Push | 0 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Utah 8:00 PM ET Game# 817-818 Play On: Utah +6.0 Arizona is a legitimate national title contender. However, they’re a bit vulnerable in conference away games. The #8 Wildcats have suffered road losses to unranked teams such as Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State. As a matter of fact, all 5 losses by Arizona this season have come either on a neutral floor or true road game. Conversely, Utah is 0-5 SU&ATS in conference away games. However, they’re a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS at home with an average victory margin 18.0 points per game. They’ll also be out to revenge a 92-73 loss at Arizona earlier this season. Give me Utah plus points. |