Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz UNDER 227 | 112-128 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF NBA Totals Takedown* The Utah Jazz were just humiliated in Portland on Wednesday night. Portland scored 45 points in the first quarter on their way to winning 132-105 over the Jazz. This is a Utah team that prides itself on defense, and their defense was at its very worst in their last game. Utah now comes home to take on an Atlanta team that averages only 1.039 points per possession on the road this year. The Jazz should be focused on the defensive end here after that terrible performance in Portland. There is a great angle backing this under. The under is a whopping 117-72 (61.9%) in Utah's home games against a team with a winning percentage of 50% or lower with a total of 194 or higher since 2006. Utah tends to blow out bad teams and win with defense in these games. I expect a bounce back here and this is a very high total considering the spot. Take the under. |
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01-11-19 | Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 231 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards are a better defensive team without John Wall in the lineup. Washington ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season overall. Washington ranks 14th in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Bucks are allowing only 1.027 points per possession in their last 10. Milwaukee has played slower on the road this year than at home. The Bucks have slowed down their tempo a bit in general in recent weeks, and the Wizards are a bit slower without Wall pushing it as well. The under is 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 road games. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 vs. the NBA Central. A 17-1 trend. Take the under. |
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12-25-18 | Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 227.5 | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has been great to under bettors in the NBA since this tradition started. The strongest under angles come in the early games and in games that aren't between divisional opponents. This one meets both of those filters. Milwaukee has been playing much better defense of late. The Bucks have allowed 105 points or less in 7 of their last 10 games. They have kept 4 of their last 10 opponents under 100 points. The Bucks have slowed their tempo a bit in recent weeks as well. The Knicks have the same offensive efficiency rate on the road as they have at home. The difference for them is they are better on defense at home than on the road. They get a home game at MSG on Christmas here. This is such a high total and with there being question marks about whether these teams might pack it in early here or not, I have to take the value with the under. The under is 27-11 in the last 38 non-divisional games on Christmas Day. Take the under. |
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12-10-18 | Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 217 | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Oklahoma City Thunder were beaten out of the NBA playoffs last year by the Utah Jazz. Oklahoma City ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year, and I would expect them to work very hard on defense in a game that means so much to them. The Thunder have been at their best defensively of late. Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to score only 0.979 points per possession in their last eight games. Utah has underachieved defensively so far this year, but the Jazz are improving. On the year, they are 12th in defensive efficiency. In their last six games, they rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. These two teams met ten times last year. One game was 224, one was 217.. and the rest were 209 or lower. In fact, 6 of the 10 games finished at 197 points or lower. This is a very high total for a game involving these two teams. Expect a motivated defensive effort from both teams. Take the under. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 45 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* It's all on the line here in Boston on Sunday night. It's 3-3 and this is game seven. LeBron James and the Cavs shot the ball extremely well on Friday night en route to a 109-99 win over the Celtics in Cleveland. On the surface it would look like things didn't slow down as the games got more important in game six, but they actually did. The pace of game six was the slowest of any game in this series thus far. Both teams just shot the ball better than normal. The Cavs also got 15 offensive rebounds, which is not at all the usual for them. Boston made 12/28 from 3 point range in the loss. This game means everything to both teams and it would be surprising if the tempo sped up at all here. Every possession matters more. The winner of this game will be in the NBA Finals. Kevin Love is questionable for game seven with an injury, and if he misses the game or is less than 100 percent that helps the under. Love is a good offensive player, but he is a subpar defensive player. Look for better defensive effort and lower shooting percentages here. Take the under. |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Celtics coasted to a 108-83 win in game one of this series. Cleveland was 4/26 from 3 point range in that game. The Cavs have some reliable 3 point shooters, and it is hard to imagine them not improving drastically from 3 point range in game two. Boston's offense showed an ability to get into the paint at will. The Celtics have a quickness advantage at nearly every spot on the floor, and Brad Stevens' team should be able to continue to get to the rim against a Cavs defense that ranked second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the last regular season game between these two, the total was 213. The total in game one was 204.5 and even 205 at some books. There has been a big adjustment made. Cleveland and Boston both got fewer offensive rebounds than normal in game one, and they both got to the line less than normal. Even with Cleveland's miserable shooting performance, the game was within 12 points of this total. I think the Celtics will look to score some in transition with their quickness advantage, and I see the Cavs offense looking much better here. Take the over. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 204 | 112-114 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both shot the ball extremely well in the first couple games of the series. They have come back down to earth in their shooting in the last couple games. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tended to go under the total in a pretty big way in the past ten years, and I see some value on the under here. Boston's defense ranked in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were first in the NBA in 3 point FG percentage defense. Philadelphia was third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the season. They were second in 3 point FG percentage defense. Ben Simmons is a great player, but his decision making and the decision making by the rest of the primary ball handlers on this 76ers team has hurt them in key spots in the playoffs. The 76ers had the highest turnover rate in the NBA this year. There were 52 free throws in Game 4, which is a good amount higher than average in the NBA. In a game of this magnitude, the pace tends to slow down and the defenses play extremely hard. A basic playoff system is a total of 196 or higher with a spread of the home team anywhere from -2.5 to +5.5 and the home team coming off a loss of 7 points or more. In those games, the under is 42-19 (68.9%). If you add in one more filter of public betting percentage of 40% or lower on the under it goes to 31-11 (73.3% to the under. This game fits the system. Take the under. |
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05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207 | 103-108 | Loss | -103 | 42 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics torched the nets in Game One to defeat Philadelphia 117-101. Boston made a ton of tough 3 pointers in that one, and this Celtics team isn't made to win games like that. Boston wins with defense more often than not. The Celtics should get Jaylen Brown back for this one, and he's their best defender as well. The Celtics and 76ers ranked number one and two in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage defense in the regular season. In overall defensive efficiency numbers- the Celtics were first and Philly was 3rd in the season. These are two good defenses. Boston doesn't want to get into a track meet with Philadelphia, and they were able to slow the pace down pretty well in Game One. Another reason to expect a lower scoring game here is the lack of turnovers in game one. Philadelphia carried a 16.0% turnover rate into Game One. They turned it over only 10.9% of the time. Boston carried a 14.1% turnover rate into Game One and they turned it over only 9.7% of the time. There should be more wasted trips in this contest. Look for things to regress toward the mean here. Take the under. |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 204.5 | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Indiana is down 3-2 after LeBron James nailed the 3 pointer at the buzzer to finish game five in spectacular fashion for the Cavs. Indiana's defense has played very well in this series. The Pacers are working hard to keep the Cavs out of the paint. The Pacers are also doing a great job slowing down the tempo in this series. All five of the games in this series have stayed under the total. I think this one has a good chance to stay under as well. Indiana cannot get into a track meet, and they have been better at controlling the pace on their home floor. Game five stayed under this number by double digits despite 54 free throw attempts and 47 made free throws. That is far above average, especially since these two teams both ranked in the top five in the NBA at defending without fouling. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tilted under strongly for a long time- and that is even more the case when the team oddsmakers are lower on is the home team like the Pacers are here. This one should be a dog fight, and I'll look for a slow tempo with so much on the line for both teams. Take the under. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams. The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range. Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under. The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this. I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5. Take the under. |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 205.5 | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have their blueprint for making this a series. They slow the tempo of the game down and be aggressive on defense going for steals and disrupting the Cavs offensive flow. The average possessions per game in the four regular season meetings between these two teams was nearly 6 possessions quicker than the first three games of this series have been. Game 3 was the slowest paced game, and Indiana has typically been able to slow the game down more on their home floor so I expect a slower tempo again here. The Cavs defense has been improved in the playoffs thus far. This game means a bunch to the Cavs, and I would expect effort from them here. Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling which is key. None of the first three games in this series have finished even close to this high. Looking at scoring efficiency numbers- I believe this total should be around 200. Take the under. |
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04-22-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 204.5 | 102-104 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Sunday NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics were first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year. Boston allowed 1.015 points per possession. They gave up 1.324 points per possession in Game 3 against Milwaukee. That isn't likely to happen again. Even with that ridiculous shooting by Milwaukee, the game very narrowly went past this posted total. I expect Brad Stevens (a tremendous coach), to have his team ready to go in Game 4, especially on the defensive end. The last two games have seen shooting numbers in an extremely high area overall for both teams. Two games ago Boston averaged 1.301 and Milwaukee 1.149 points per possession (above average). The first two games saw posted totals of 200 and 199.5, and scoring efficiency averages I ran for this game were all in the high 190's. This number is inflated thanks to great shooting performances from the two teams in the last couple games. The tempo should stay slow and the defense should improve. Take the under. |
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04-20-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers played at the slowest tempo in the NBA in their last 25 regular season games. The Pacers changed their style of play in the middle of the season, and it worked very nicely when they slowed things down and turned the game into a halfcourt battle. The Indiana Pacers have slowed the game down nicely in the first two games of this series. Those two games have played to the two slowest paced games between the Pacers and Cavs this year. Indiana will try to do the same again here. Cleveland and Indiana both rank in the top five in the NBA at least free throws for their opponent. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in least free throws attempted. Here's a basic, but strong NBA playoffs first round system that this game fits: -A total of 191 or higher -Home team win percentage of 61% or less on the year -Road team win percentage of 50%-68% on the year The under is a whopping 77-33 (70%) in the last 110 games that fit this system. Take the under. |
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04-18-18 | Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 206.5 | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz had the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the second half of the season. Utah wasn't good defensively in game one. Oklahoma City made 14/29 shots from 3 point range. Paul George nailed 8/11 from long range. The Thunder averaged better than 1.12 points per possession. Utah allowed less than 1 point per possession over the last 3 months of the season. Utah knocked down 11/28 from 3 point range as well. The Thunder were poor in their pick and roll defense, and they should improve in that area in game two. These two teams didn't play a regular season game that went above 194. Though these teams are much different now (no Roberson for OKC) and that bumps the total up some, game one looks like an aberration to me. Mitchell has been a star for Utah this year. He is likely to play here, but he is less than 100 percent. The defenses should improve here, and the tempo should slow as well. Take the under. |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | 113-103 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers put on a shooting clinic in game one. They shot a ridiculous 18/28 from three point range in blowing out the Heat 130-103. The Heat also made 12/26 from three point range in game one. Philadelphia averaged 1.276 points per possession in game one. They averaged 1.074 points per possession on the season. Even if you want to say the 76ers are better on offense now than they were early in the year (I think that is true), the 76ers only average 1.127 points per possession in their last 10 games. Their shooting percentages should regress. Also important to note is that the 76ers only turned the ball over on 8.5% of their possessions in game one, and on the year they average turnovers on 16.1% of possessions. Miami shot a little better than average from the floor in game one as well. These two defenses ranked third and seventh in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the regular season. There's no reason to expect the great shooting to continue. Is it possible that the red hot shooting will continue? Of course it is. Still, all of my tempo based efficiency projections point to a total of 209-210 here. This number is inflated because of recent shooting numbers from the 76ers. Though it is a hard bet to make when you see the 76ers throw in everything in game one, I have to take the value on the under here. Take the under. |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 217.5 | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans in game one of this playoff series. Portland has been a great under team this year. The Blazers defense has been far better than anyone expected. Portland ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo, so they are slower than average. In the last 12 games alone, they rank even slower at 25th in tempo. New Orleans plays very quickly, and that's why we have a high total here. Still, the Pelicans are a different team than they were earlier this year. The Pelicans have Emeka Okafor playing a lot of minutes now, and he's much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Solomon Hill fits in that category as well. DeMarcus Cousins was an offensive force, and these guys are a big offensive downgrade. The opposite is true on defense. New Orleans ranks 13th in defensive efficiency for the year, but they are an impressive 3rd in defensive efficiency in their last 15 games. The most recent and most important game between these two this year was 107-103. I expect a similar type of game here. Things usually slow down a bit in the playoffs, and I think these two defenses are both top ten defenses in the NBA with their current rosters. Take the under. |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play on Wednesday night in a game that will decide who gets into the playoffs and who has to watch the playoffs from home. While both of these teams have been bad overall on defense this year and good on offense, they do both play at a slow pace. The pace of the game should be even slower since the game means so much in this case. This is essentially a one-game playoff to decide who continues. There are a couple interesting numbers to show that these two are playing harder on defense of late as well. In the last five games, both of these teams rank in the top 9 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In their last 3 games only, both rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are both in the bottom 10 in the league on the year in that number. They have tightened up the defense as the games have gotten more important. With so much on the line, this is a high total. Look for a game where both teams slow things down and try to take care of the basketball. The defensive effort should be much better than an average NBA game. Take the under. |
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04-07-18 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 202.5 | 105-116 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Blazers in a battle of teams who will be fighting hard for the playoff standings. Portland is in the playoffs, but they are working to secure the third seed. San Antonio could still miss the playoffs if they can't things around late in the regular season. These types of games have proven very good to under bettors in the past, and I see no reason why that would change going forward. As things tighten up and slow down, the under holds value. I leaned strongly to the under here to start with and I have to play it after I see the referee crew for this contest. All 3 refs are big under guys. Between the 3 refs, if you had played the under in all of their career games as a ref- you would be up 79 units. The under is 5-0 in Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 9-0 angle. Take the under here. |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the MONTH* The Cleveland Cavaliers go to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers on Friday night. This has turned into a massive game for both teams. These teams are jockeying for third place in the Eastern Conference, and they are just barely ahead of Indiana who sits in 5th place in the Eastern Conference. Late in the season when two good teams play against each other, I like to look to the under. Here's a great system that tracks something like this. *Late in the season (between game 70 and 80 in the season) when teams in the same conference who have both won 60% or more of their games meet the under is a whopping 94-58-2 since 2005. That's 62% wins for the under. Cleveland has slowed down of late. They are playing at the 28th quickest tempo out of 30 teams in the NBA in their last five games. Philly is only allowing 0.922 points per possession in their last five games, and in their last ten games they are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. With this game meaning a lot to both teams, I think they'll both be trying hard on defense. The pace should slow a bit as well. The under is 11-1 in the Cavs last 12 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 playing on one day of rest. A 20-1 trend. Take the under. TOP Total of the MONTH |
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04-01-18 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the WEEK* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Indiana Pacers in an early Sunday afternoon game at Staples Center. The Clippers are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and this is a game they absolutely have to win. The Pacers are playing for seeding in a tight Eastern Conference race. Both teams have plenty of reasons to be ready to go for this one. The Indiana Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo of late. Indiana has made a significant change to their style in the second half of the year. The Pacers are last in the NBA in tempo by more than one full possession per game in their last 10 games. It's difficult for Indiana games to get this high scoring without some really high shooting numbers because of their ability to slow the game down. The last time these two teams played- there were 213 points scored and the Clippers shot 55% from the floor in that one. The Pacers have had 18 straight games stay under this total in regulation. Early Sunday games have been great under plays in the long run especially in West Coast games. This one gets the added benefit of being a game that both teams badly need when it comes to playoff positioning. Take the under. TOP Total of the WEEK |
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03-28-18 | Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 195.5 | 97-94 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Boston Celtics are fifth. Utah is 14th in offensive efficiency in that time. Boston is 25th. The Celtics continue to defend well, but without Irving and Smart this offense has really struggled. Marcus Morris is very questionable for this game as well. On the year, Boston is number one in overall defensive efficiency in the NBA. Utah is number two. Utah's defense is on another level at home. They are giving up 1.054 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing only 0.98 points per possession at home. That is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency at home. Boston is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road allowing only 1.014 points per possession on the road. When Kyrie Irving isn't on the floor this year, Boston's tempo has been the slowest of any team in the league. Signs point to a low scoring game between two very good defenses. Take the under. |
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03-25-18 | Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 203 | 110-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz on Sunday night. Utah lit up the Golden State defense for 129 points in their last meeting. I don't think Golden State will forget that one. Golden State's injury issues have gotten severe. Draymond Green is expected to play here, but Curry, Thompson, and Durant are all out. Other key backups are questionable as well. Golden State's potent offense isn't nearly as potent right now. In the last five games with all these injuries, Golden State is 22nd in offensive efficiency in the NBA. Defensively, they are playing very well. They are 4th in the NBA in that time on defense. Green coming back helps the defense a bunch. Utah has been the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the last ten games. Expect that strong defense to continue here. Utah will look to slow the game down as well. The numbers show Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit. Take the under. |
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03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Top Total of the WEEK* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Blazers meet in OKC on Sunday in a game that means a ton in the playoff standings. Right now, the Blazers are third in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is fourth and only one game behind them. The Thunder have been a great under team against other top teams. The under is 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is also 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record overall. This is a higher total than any of their first three meetings against each other were. I don't think this one should be the highest total yet this year when this game means so much to both teams and we are near the end of the regular season. Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit. Take the under. |
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03-23-18 | Celtics v. Blazers UNDER 203 | 105-100 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Celtics are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. The Portland Blazers are 7th. Portland and Boston both play slightly slower than the league average as far as tempo. Kyrie Irving is out for the Celtics here. Also out are Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. In their last five games without those guys- Boston is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on offense. That is 28th in the NBA. Portland is a good offensive team, but Boston's defense is solid and the Blazers have shown to be a team that slows down the pace if they have the lead late. Two good teams late in the season is a good under angle. From game 60-80 of the regular season- when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, the under is cashing at a really impressive 61% clip in the last ten years. Take the under. |
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03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT Totals CASH* The Indiana Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. Indiana also ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in that 10 game period. The Pacers rate 25th in offensive efficiency during that span. The Clippers rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last ten. The Clippers are 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams have actually been better defensively in non-conference games. The Pacers have played two possessions per game slower in their home games as they do a better job controlling the tempo. The Clippers have played one possession per game slower on the road as well. In their last 19 games the Pacers have played one game that has gone over this posted total. This is a late season game that means quite a bit to both teams- and that is a positive for the under. The Clippers still have a chance to get in the playoffs, and the Pacers are in a big battle for positioning in the Eastern Conference. Take the under. |
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03-20-18 | Hawks v. Jazz UNDER 207 | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have been an under machine at home in recent years. Utah is always good defensively, but they are elite defensively on their home floor. The Jazz have been the best defense in the NBA at home for the season as a whole. Of late Utah's defense has been on a whole different level. Utah is allowing only 0.908 points per possession in their last ten games. That's easily best in the NBA. In that time frame, the Spurs are second on defense and they are allowing 0.997 points per possession. Utah's offense is 20th in efficiency in their last ten games. Atlanta's offense is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have actually been better on defense on the road than at home this year. Utah games have gone under the total at a high rate against bad teams. In Utah's last 181 home games against a team with a win percentage of less than 50%- the under is 111-70 (61.3% unders). It is 6-1 in the last 7 in this spot. Look for Utah to control the style of play here and keep this one under the total. Take the under. |
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03-09-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 220 | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Pelicans are expected to be without Anthony Davis here. That's a massive hit to their offense. Look for Emeka Okafor to get a lot more minutes here, and Okafor is much better on the defensive end than offense. The Pelicans are 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. Washington is dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. The Wizards have consistently slowed the game down without John Wall. Otto Porter Jr. is a gametime decision as well. The referee crew is very strong to the under in their career stats. Take the under. |
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03-09-18 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have been much better defensively this year, and they have been great defensively of late. Clint Capela has been key in the frontcourt on defense. Houston has actually been better on the road on defense than at home. They are third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in road games. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games overall. Toronto is second in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. They are first in the league in defensive efficiency at home. Also important is that both teams haven't been playing very fast of late. Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 contests. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. Both of these offenses are clearly excellent, but this number is very high for two underrated defenses and two teams that aren't playing as quickly as most people believe. The under is 19-6-1 in the Rockets last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record when the total is 211.5 or higher. Take the under. |
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03-04-18 | Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 211 | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank 17th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. The Washington Wizards rank as the slowest paced team in the league in that time frame. Indiana is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that time and Washington is 14th. They are 13th and 11th in offensive efficiency. Sunday has historically been easily the best under day in the NBA. The under is 39-19 in Washington's last 58 Sunday games. The under is 37-29 in Indiana's last 66 Sunday games. These two played a game that went to 213 last month, but the shooting numbers were clearly above average in that game. The Wizards are slowing the pace down more now than they were at that time as well. The under is 9-2-1 in the Pacers last 12 road games. The under is 4-0 in Washington's last 4 games. I see a slow tempo and average shooting numbers leading to an under here. Take the under. |
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02-09-18 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 199.5 | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night. These are two teams who like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in the league in pace on the year and Milwaukee is 24th. The tempo here should stay slow. Dwyane Wade returns to Miami and is expected to play here. Wade has said many times in the past he prefers to play at a slow tempo. Also, integrating him into the offense could take a bit of time. Jumping in this late in the season isn't easy. The Bucks have caught my attention because of the defense they have been playing since Jason Kidd left. Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are allowing only 0.974 points per possession during that time. Miami is sixth in that same stat in the last eight games. Milwaukee ranks in the middle of the league in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. Miami ranks 26th. This is a low number by today's standards in the NBA, but it is low for a reason. Take the under. |
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02-05-18 | Hornets v. Nuggets OVER 218 | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Denver Nuggets offense was disappointing for a while, but they are back and firing on all cylinders now. Denver is averaging 1.127 points per possession in their last six games, which is fifth best in the NBA. Charlotte's offense has been amazing of late. The Hornets are averaging 1.136 points per possession in their last six games, which is second best in the NBA. What about the defenses here? Charlotte and Denver are 24th and 25th in defensive efficiency in their last six games. Charlotte is pushing the pace, and Denver is a middle of the road tempo team right now. I expect both offenses to have the upper hand throughout in this one. Take the over. |
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02-04-18 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 209 | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Brooklyn Nets host the Milwaukee Bucks early Sunday afternoon. This game is being played much earlier than a typical game to keep it away from the Super Bowl. Sunday is the best day by a large margin for unders in the NBA in the last 10 years. Early day games have been the strongest for unders. The Bucks have shown improved an improved defense under new coaching in recent games. Milwaukee is fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. For the year, they are 18th. The Nets are no longer playing quickly like they did early in the year. Brooklyn ranks 27th in the NBA in tempo in their last 8 games. Milwaukee has played 5 straight games under this total. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 9 to a lower scoring game than this total. Take the under. |
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02-02-18 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 202 | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat have been the best defense in the NBA of late. Miami is allowing only 0.944 points per possession in their last five games. For the year as a whole, Miami is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Philadelphia 76ers are a lot better on defense than most people realize. The 76ers are fourth in the NBA for the season in defensive efficiency. They have played at a quick pace most of the year, but they have slowed down substantially of late. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NBA in tempo on the season overall. Interestingly, they are only 23rd quickest in the NBA in pace in their last 12 games. The Heat have played slow all year. Miami ranks 28th in the NBA in tempo on the season. Miami is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games averaging 0.989 points per possession. The under is 36-16 in Miami's last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the under. |
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01-30-18 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 219.5 | 96-102 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night. Oklahoma City is a completely different team without Andre Roberson. Roberson is one of the best defenders in the league, and he is also a liability on the offensive end. Oklahoma City is a much better over team without him on the floor. Oklahoma City's offense took a while to get going this year, but they have gotten going in a huge way of late. In the last six games, the Thunder rank first in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging a whopping 1.219 points per possession. Golden State is second at 1.153 points per possession. The Thunder are 21st in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense in that time span. Washington ranks 27th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last six games. The Thunder and Wizards both rank in the top 12 in the NBA in tempo during the last six games. The Thunder are averaging 122.5 points per game in their last six contests. They have scored 121 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the over. |
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01-26-18 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Toronto Raptors host the Utah Jazz on Friday night. Utah has Rudy Gobert back in the lineup now, and he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA. That changes the look of this Jazz team. Utah is without Rodney Hood for this game. Hood is the team's second leading scorer at 16.7 points per game. The Jazz have struggled mightily on offense in their last two games without him. Utah scored 90 points against Atlanta and then scored only 98 in an overtime game at Detroit. Toronto is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Raptors are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in home games this year. Utah is third worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. All 3 referees for this game are under refs in their careers: Forte has a 53.8% under rate, Callahan has a 52.5% under rate, and Goble has a 54% under rate. That's a nice bonus here as well. Take the under. |
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01-21-18 | Nets v. Pistons UNDER 209 | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons host the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday afternoon. Brooklyn started the season playing at an extremely quick tempo. They were among the top three in the NBA in tempo. Of late that has changed a lot. Brooklyn ranks 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last 8 games. The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are playing too much one on one and not moving the basketball. On the other end, Brooklyn is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during this span. Detroit ranks 19th in tempo in the last eight games. The Pistons are 21st in offensive efficiency during that time. The under is 36-14-1 in the Pistons last 51 after allowing 100 or more last game. The best day for unders in the NBA long term has been Sunday's, by a large margin. I'll take the under at this high number. Take the under. |
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01-20-18 | Mavs v. Blazers OVER 208 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA Game of the MONTH* The Portland Blazers host the Dallas Mavs on Saturday night. Both of these teams are far different than they were earlier this season. Portland started the season as a team that was one of the best defenses in the NBA for the first month or two of the year. That has changed in a big way. Dallas started the season playing slowly and struggling badly on offense. With the emergence of Dennis Smith Jr. this offense has been much better of late, and they have sped things up. In their last ten games, Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency and Portland ranks 5th. Defensively, the Mavericks are 21st in the league and the Blazers are 24th in that time span. Both teams are playing at almost exactly the league average tempo during that time. Portland has scored 110 points ore more in 8 of their last 10 games. The Mavericks have scored 114 points or more in six of their last nine games. I think this number is too low based on how these teams played earlier in the season. The number hasn't been adjusted enough. Take the over big. |
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01-15-18 | Spurs v. Hawks UNDER 206 | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Totals System CASH* The San Antonio Spurs have been a great under team on the road against subpar opponents. In their last 78 games on the road against a team with a win percentage of 33% or lower, the Spurs have gone 50-28 to the under. That's 64% under the total. They are 4-0 to the under in this system this year. They are 9-1 to the under in their last 10 that fit this system. This is a day game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. These games have done great for the under in recent years, and I think it makes sense considering this is an odd schedule spot. The Spurs offense is 28th in the NBA in efficiency on the road. Defensively, the Spurs have been at their best in recent weeks. Take the under. |
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01-15-18 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 205 | 118-107 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Monday Early Totals CASH* The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets meet early on Monday to tip off the NBA's MLK Day action. These early start times are good for the under on the weekend, and in the past they have been very good to under bettors on Martin Luther King Jr Day as well. It makes sense because players aren't accustomed to the early tip times, and that usually causes a slower tempo. In their last 8 games- Charlotte is 19th in the NBA in tempo and Detroit is 24th. In that span, Detroit is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte is eighth. Charlotte is 18th in offensive efficiency and Detroit is 25th during that span. The under is at 61% in the last ten years in games that start at 4 pm EST or earlier between November and March where the home team is favored by 3 or more. This one fits. Take the under. |
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01-14-18 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 218 | 123-118 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks host the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have really slowed their pace down of late. They rank second to last in the NBA in tempo in the past six games. New York also ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency during that period. New Orleans has played quickly all year, but they have slowed down of late. The Pelicans are 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. They are 14th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters: -Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier -The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year -The game is played between October and March -The total is 191.5 or higher. This one fits the system. I think this total is a few points too high considering the pace the Knicks are playing at. Take the under. |
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01-14-18 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 206 | 79-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were an over machine for quite a while. The books had to start posting their totals extremely high, and now they have gone under the total four times in a row. Milwaukee is a team that plays slowly. On the year, the Bucks are 24th in the NBA in tempo. In their last six games they are 27th. Miami has been the slowest paced team in the NBA over the past few weeks. It has worked great for them to play slowly and win with defense. The Heat are on a big run that has vaulted them up in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Over their last ten games, the Heat are playing more than 1.5 possessions per game slower than any other team in the NBA. Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters: -Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier -The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year -The game is played between October and March -The total is 191.5 or higher. This one fits the system. The system is hitting 60.1% unders in the past 10 years. Take the under. |
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01-09-18 | Magic v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks offense has been tremendous in recent games. Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. They are second to only the Golden State Warriors. Dallas also ranks 6th in the NBA in tempo in the last five games. The Mavericks had previously been playing at a much slower tempo. Along with their strong offense, Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Orlando has been pushing the pace all year, and they have been terrible on defense all season as well. The Magic are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are sixth in tempo. I don't see much quality defense being played here. Take the over. |
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01-09-18 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 207.5 | 90-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TAKEDOWN* The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat tonight. Kyle Lowry is out of the lineup for the Raptors. Lowry is definitely a key guy in the offense, and I expect them to slow things down a bit without him playing. Miami is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Heat have shot blocking big man Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup, and that makes their defense much better. The three referees in this game are some of the best under refs you'll find in the NBA. They have career under percentages of 54.8% unders, 54.6% unders, and 52.9% unders. That's definitely a nice boost to the under here. The under is 60-29-1 in the Heat's last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The sharp money likes the under here. Only 28% of bets are on the under, but 69% of the money is on the under. Take the under. |
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01-07-18 | Jazz v. Heat UNDER 198 | 102-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz meet on Sunday afternoon in Miami. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against one another. Earlier this year, they played to a 84-74 game. Six of their last seven meetings have finished at 195 points or less. Miami is much better defensively now that they have Whiteside back in the middle. The Jazz defense isn't as good without Gobert, but they are still better than league average there. Miami ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the past eight games. The Jazz rank as the fifth slowest in tempo during that time. Utah also ranks dead last in offensive efficiency. Sunday day unders have been a strong angle in recent years- and when you have a home team playing at 97.8 possessions or fewer on the season and the game is played at 5 pm EST or earlier on a Sunday the under is hitting 61% in the last nine years. Take the under here. |
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01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 206 | 102-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Washington Wizards are healthy once again, and their offense has taken off since they got everyone back in the fold. Washington has scored 111 points or more in five of their last six games. The Wizards have scored 121 or more in three of those contests. Memphis isn't playing as slow as they did earlier this year. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo in the last six games. The Grizzlies have gotten some very good offensive production out of Tyreke Evans. Memphis ranks 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.146 points per possession in their last six games. What about Washington? The Wizards are third in that same stat, averaging an impressive 1.164 points per possession. Both of these teams have been big under teams for the season as a whole, which gives us line value here. Now that they have changed their stripes, I'll look to go over the total with them in spots. I think this number is too low. Take the over. |
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01-03-18 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 211.5 | 133-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to get Brook Lopez back tonight. Lopez is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Kyle Kuzma is probable as well, and beat writers have reported the coaching staff says he will be available to play. Andre Roberson is out for Oklahoma City in this one. That's key because Roberson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Roberson is also a major liability on offense. Without him, the Thunder are better on offense and much weaker on defense. Roberson has missed three games due to injury this year, and the Thunder have allowed 116 points in two of the three games. The Lakers are allowing 1.174 points per possession in their last three games. That is second worst in the NBA during that stretch. OKC is allowing 1.122 points per possession, which is 22nd. The Thunder offense has been much better in recent games. They struggled much of the year on this end, but OKC is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. In Eric Lewis and Zach Zarba, two of the three officials in this game are big over refs. The over is 368-336 in Zarba's games. The over is 355-317 in the games Lewis has been a referee. Take the over. |
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12-31-17 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 221 | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers do play quickly, but because their offense isn't efficient and their defense is very good, they still rarely have extremely high scoring games. In the last six games, the 76ers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th in offensive efficiency. Phoenix ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. The Suns clearly aren't playing at the ultra quick tempo they did earlier this year. Phoenix is 25th in offensive efficiency in the last six games in the NBA, and they are a solid 10th in defensive efficiency. This high of a number is usually reserved for elite offenses or the worst defenses in the NBA. These teams don't fit that bill. Take the under. |
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12-31-17 | Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 202 | 116-113 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City and Dallas Mavericks have both shot the ball extremely well in recent games. They should regress soon. Dallas set a franchise record with 22 made 3 pointers in their last game (22/39 from long range). They aren't likely to do that again. What about the pace here? In the past ten games, Oklahoma City ranks dead last in the NBA in tempo. Dallas ranks 27th out of 30. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. This is a New Year's Eve game, and these holiday games have trended under in the long run pretty heavily. The tendency of players to want to be done and play through a quicker game with lower scoring second halves makes a lot of sense to me. Marc Davis is one of the referees in this one and the under has hit in 54% of his games in his career. The under is 29-14-2 in the Mavs last 45 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 9-4 in OKC's last 13 home games. Take the under. |
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12-29-17 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 212.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. This total is set at such a high level because the Pelicans have been an over machine of late. Two of their last nine games have gone into OT though, and that certainly isn't a predictive trend. In time, Pelicans numbers have to get too high. I think this number is too high. Dallas plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. Finding a total of 212.5 with a team playing that slowly is very rare. This meets a system I like to use on fading hot shooting teams. Both teams have shot much higher than their season averages in their last 2 games combined. When both teams have shot that much over their average and the game is a divisional game (this one is), the under is a very strong look. All three referees in this game are big under refs. All 3 refs have a career over/under mark of at least 53% to the under. That is as good as you'll ever see from a ref crew. Take the under. |
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12-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212 | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Milwaukee Bucks are third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Chicago Bulls are 9th in offensive efficiency in that span. Milwaukee has routinely been putting up really big numbers. Chicago's offense has been much better because of two reason: Kris Dunn's breakout performances at point guard, and Mirotic returning and providing a big spark. Ed Malloy is one the officials in this game, and he has been one of the best over referees in the NBA. In their last ten games, Milwaukee ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.115 points per possession. Chicago has picked up the pace significantly with Dunn running the show and playing well. The Bulls rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. Take the over. |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206 | 111-103 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Christmas 100% System Play CASH* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards meet on Christmas Day NBA action. The under has had great value on Christmas Day in the past ten years. Overall, the under is 32-18-2. What makes the angle stronger? Non-division games between good teams. In games played at 9 pm EST or earlier on Christmas Day with two teams with a win percentage of 50% or better- the under is a whopping 18-0 in the last 18 games. This game fits the system. The Wizards offense was great last game, but in general of late they have been poor. Washington ranks 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 7 games. They rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span. The Celtics rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo. They should keep the pace low. Christmas Day games are certainly unique, and I see this one staying under the total. We'll go with this system backed play. Take the under. |
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12-23-17 | Magic v. Wizards UNDER 210.5 | 103-130 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Washington Wizards play on Christmas Day in Boston. That means the time they celebrate with their families is tonight after the game and early tomorrow. Games around Christmas have slanted pretty strongly toward the under for everyone, but the trend is 60% unders in the last 8 years for teams that are slated to play on Christmas Day. It makes sense to me. They want to get done with the game and get home. Even if we took that angle away, I think there is value here. The Magic are expected to be without Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. Without those guys, this offense is a mess. Orlando is averaging a miserable 0.953 points per possession in their last five games. They have been short handed during this period. That's dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Washington ranks 27th at 0.981 points per possession during that time. I expect a sloppy game here. This total is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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12-16-17 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 206.5 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Austin Rivers is averaging 14.5 points per game for the year, and since Blake Griffin went out, Rivers had consistently been one of the team's top scorers. Rivers was out last night and the offense looked disjointed. Danilo Gallinari is still out with an injury as well. The Clippers don't have a go to guy on offense. Miami has played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last four games. Miami is 19-9 to the under so far this year, and I don't think oddsmakers have caught on to their slower tempo just yet. Brian Forte is a referee in this one, and he is one of the strongest under refs in the league. This one has gotten pushed up to an awfully high level considering both teams are dealing with key injuries and the tempo should be very slow. Take the under. |
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12-15-17 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 209.5 | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TGIF Total Domination* The Washington Wizards are a different team with John Wall at the point. Washington had to slow down their pace without him in the lineup. With him, they obviously like to push because of Wall's elite speed. The Los Angeles Clippers defense has been terrible in the past month. This team is giving up way too many open looks, and the Wizards have the shooters to make them pay. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished at: 223 points, 227 points, 257 points, and 225 points. The Clippers still have a league average or better offense, but their defense is near the bottom of the league. Washington has seen 7 of their last 8 stay under the total, which has moved this number down to a nice value. With Wall back, their style of play should change. Take the over. |
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 210.5 | 110-117 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Orlando Magic are without their top two scorers. Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are both out for this one, and it will be really hard for the Magic to replace those two. Look for a disjointed offense from Orlando for this game. Atlanta has slowed the pace down a bit in recent games. The Hawks weren't having any luck trying to outgun opponents. They have played improved defense in the last few games, and I expect that to continue here. Marc Davis is one of the best under referees in the NBA, and he's part of the crew doing this game. I don't think there has been enough of an adjustment to the total with Orlando's top two scorers out. Take the under. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs UNDER 197.5 | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Celtics/Spurs Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics meet in San Antonio tonight. Boston has been the most consistent team in the NBA this year. San Antonio has played very well despite missing Leonard. I consider these the best two coaches in the NBA. They are both defensive minded. Boston and San Antonio both like to play at a slow tempo, and I expect there to be a much smaller amount of possessions in this game than a normal NBA game. San Antonio has been a good under team in the past ten years on their home floor. They have been an exceptional under team at home when playing against good opponents. The under is at 62% in the Spurs home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 65% or higher in the past ten years. In their last 30 home contests vs. a team with a win percentage of 65% or higher, the under is an impressive 23-7. 53% of the bets in this game are on the under, but the money is almost 85% on the under. The sharps are on the under. Take the under here. |
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12-03-17 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 199 | 87-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Spurs/Thunder Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs weren't playing the kind of defense we expect at the start of the season. They have improved that dramatically in recent weeks. San Antonio ranks first in the NBA in the past 8 games in defensive efficiency. The Spurs also rank dead last in tempo in their past ten games. They are slowing things down and winning with defense. Oklahoma City ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season. The Thunder rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency though. What about the Spurs? San Antonio ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in offensive efficiency as well. Sunday has been the best day in the NBA for unders by a large margin in the past ten years. I see this being a hard fought game where the defenses have the edge. Take the under. |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on TNT Total SMASHER* The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 112 points or more in 9 straight games. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Houston's offense started the season slowly, but they are on fire of late. Houston ranks first in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last three games. Who is number two? The Cleveland Cavs. Cleveland is playing faster this year, and Houston is always looking to run. I expect a fast tempo here and both offenses have clear edges at multiple spots vs. the opposing defense. I see a lot of open looks from 3 for Houston, and that usually means a big number for the Rockets. LeBron and company should put up a bunch here as well. Take the over. |
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11-07-17 | Thunder v. Kings UNDER 206 | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing tremendous defense so far this year. Oklahoma City ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Sacramento ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are likely to have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. Oklahoma City and Sacramento both rank among the five slowest teams in the NBA (pace of play) in the last five games. The Kings actually rank dead last in the NBA in pace for the season as a whole. Oklahoma City should be able to get their points here, but I don't see there being enough possessions for this one to go over the total without really high shooting numbers. Take the under. |
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11-05-17 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 209 | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sunday Early Bird Special* Sunday has easily been the best day of the week for unders in the NBA in the long run. Day game unders have the highest win percentage. This one is in Los Angeles, where it will be 12:35 pm when this one tips off. Day game unders 5pm EST or earlier start time with a total of 193 or higher are 34-15 (69.4%) in the last 49. Day game unders in general are above 55%. Miami's Hassan Whiteside is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Whiteside missed several games earlier this year, and the Heat defense didn't look good. Since he has returned, the Heat have been a top ten defense in the league in terms of efficiency. Both the Clippers and the Heat play at a pace that is slightly slower than the league average. Look for this one to stay under the total. Take the under. |
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11-03-17 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 205 | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics are playing great defense so far this year. Boston ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency. What about tempo of late for these two teams? Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA at only 97.55 possessions per game in their last three games. Boston ranks slowest in the NBA at only 94.99 possessions per game in their last three games. That's more than a full possession slower than any other team in the league in their last three games. It's rare you can get two teams playing great defense and playing slowly and catch a total of 205. Here we do, and I think it gives us solid value. There was a reverse line move on the under in this game at CRIS as well, and CRIS is one of the sharpest books there is. Another positive sign for this one. The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 games vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Friday games. A 10-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-03-17 | Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 196 | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star TGIF NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz toyed with the idea of playing faster in the offseason, but they are back at the bottom of the NBA in tempo now that the season is here. Quin Snyder's team has likely determined they need to win low scoring games because they don't really have the offensive threats needed to win shootouts on a consistent basis. The Toronto Raptors worked hard on defense in the offseason. Toronto actually ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency before being torched by Denver in their last game. They are now eighth in defensive efficiency. I expect Toronto to play much harder on the defensive end here. Utah is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency now. The Jazz should get the tempo to their liking in this one. Six straight Utah Jazz games have stayed under this total in regulation despite the fact they have played the very fast paced Suns and Lakers in this period. The under is 23-8 in Toronto's last 31 road games. Take the under. |
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11-01-17 | Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 223.5 | 104-98 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Pelicans rank 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and it's by a wide margin. Minnesota is allowing 1.133 points per possession on the year. Minnesota ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. New Orleans ranks tied for 10th in offensive efficiency. We have a meeting between two teams who prefer to run and both struggle badly on the defensive end. I expect a lot of easy looks in this game. Minnesota ranks in the top five in free throws attempted this year, and New Orleans has committed the third most fouls per game of any team in the league. I see a close high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 230.5 | 122-114 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns meet on Tuesday night. Phoenix isn't the same team they were under Earl Watson. Jay Triano has encouraged the team to continue to play relatively fast, but he wants them to be more under control. He's also got the team working much harder on the defensive end. Brooklyn isn't the same offensive powerhouse without Jeremy Lin. D'Angelo Russell isn't 100 percent right now, and Quincy Acy will miss this game. Brooklyn will play quickly, but this total is about as high as you ever see in the NBA, and I think the current Suns team should be lined differently than the Suns team from the start of the season when it comes to totals. One of the best under refs in the NBA is Haywoode Workman, and he's part of the crew for this one. Take the under. |
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10-29-17 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* One of my favorite angles in the NBA to play is early games on Sunday going under the total. From the beginning of the season through March: the under is 214-144 (60%) in games played between 12 pm and 4 pm eastern. This game fits the system. I see the Hawks as a team that is likely to struggle to score this year without much help for Schroeder. The Bucks are known for controlling the tempo and playing in the halfcourt. They ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo last season. Ersan Ilyasova is a 11 points per game guy and he's out for the Hawks here. There isn't much reliable scoring on this team to start with. At this level, I see value on the under in this early game. Take the under. |
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10-27-17 | Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 231.5 | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors have consistently been one of the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency the last three years. They have started out this season playing some really bad defense. Draymond Green and Steve Kerr both made extensive comments about this after their very tight win over Toronto a couple days ago. Golden State's defense will improve. This team has too many good defensive players and a defensive-minded coach. They aren't going to continue to be this bad. In fact, I imagine they will finish the year in the top six or eight in defensive efficiency once again. Washington has made a focus on playing better defense this year. The Wizards rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Neither team ranks in the top five in pace in the NBA so far this year, and a total this high is extremely rare even for teams like Golden State. It isn't an easy bet to make, but at this level I think the under holds value. Take the under. |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves OVER 198.5 | 97-100 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Timberwolves want to push the tempo more this year. Thibodeau's team has all kinds of offensive weapons. With Towns, Butler, and Wiggins this team has three very high level scorers. Teague is a solid point guard and he has good speed. The Timberwolves preseason games showed how quick they want to play. The team believes Teague is a great guy to have to help them speed up the game. The Utah Jazz aren't going to go really fast this year, but Quin Snyder and his team have been adamant that they are looking to play faster than they did a year ago. While the Jazz have a good defense, the Timberwolves do not. In today's era of the NBA, this is a pretty low total. Minnesota's offensive efficiency and the pace point to an over in this one. Take the over. |
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10-18-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 206 | 96-106 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Opening Night Totals TKO* The Denver Nuggets offense absolutely took off after Jokic was given a bigger role in the offense in the middle of the season last year. After the All-Star break, Denver ranked first in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets are going to be a top five offense in the NBA again this year. They also want to push the tempo. Utah is still going to be a solid defensive team, but the big change for Utah this year should be their tempo. Quin Snyder always has said he wants to speed things up. The Jazz haven't done it. Beat writers in the area said in practices the Jazz are playing significantly faster. While I don't like to read much into the preseason, the Jazz played quicker and averaged 112.3 points per game. The posted total last time these two played was higher than this. Denver's totals were consistently 220 late last year. I know it can't be that high here with a very good Utah defense, but I see this as a chance to take advantage of some value on the over thanks to Utah's change of pace. Take the over. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 232 | 120-129 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Finals CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged a ridiculous 1.361 points per possession in their win in game four. That is the worst defensive efficiency number Golden State has posted all year. Cleveland's record setting scoring means this total has been moved up by several points. While I don't love playing unders in the matchup between these two teams, this number is too high for me to pass it up. The pace has slowed down as the series has moved along here, and that generally happens as things tighten up and there is more importance on that game. Without record shooting numbers, it is hard to get a total score of 232 points. The regular season meetings between these two finished at 217. This is the highest total in NBA finals history. I'll look for a high scoring game, but not this high. The defenses improve here. Take the under. |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 216 | 135-102 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Cavs/Celtics NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cleveland Cavs head to Boston looking to closeout the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have dominated this series for the most part, but you have to respect the way Boston has fought very hard the last couple games. Boston completely changed the way they play when Isaiah Thomas went down with an injury. The Celtics can't try to play quickly without their main offensive guy. Boston has decided to post up Al Horford a lot and try to score in the post or pass it out of the post to get open 3's. The post ups have slowed the tempo of these games down a lot. The average tempo in games one and two was 95 possessions per game. In games 3 and 4, the pace was 90.1 possessions per game. That kind of tempo change is drastic, and it makes a posted total of 216 awfully high. The Cavs are capable of shooting a great percentage from the floor, but they shot nearly 60% from the floor last game and the game still went under the total. The Cavs are averaging 1.20 points per possession and the Celtics are averaging 1.12 points per possession in the last two games. Those are very high efficiency rates on offense. Those are more likely to drop than go up. Here's a system that backs this under play: -The spread is between home team -3.5 and +12 -The home teams win percentage is 64% or lower -The home team in this game lost the previous game by 5 points or more -The total is 193.5 or higher -The percentage of bets on the under is 42% or lower In this situation, the under is a very impressive 41-15 in the last 56 (73.2%). This game fits this situation. Take the under. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 220 | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Playoff 100% System SMASHER* The Boston Celtics were trampled over in game one of this series. Boston has a great coach in Brad Stevens, and I think he'll make some key adjustments in game two to make them more competitive. Since Cleveland is a much more talented team than Boston, the Celtics are best served to slow the pace of the game. They did in game one. They just need to play a lot better defense than they did in game one. Look for more doubling of LeBron and better switching from the Celtics in this one. The first game played to a pace of 94 possessions. That was the slowest paced game between these two teams all season. It got to 221 points (one point over this total) because the Cavs scored 1.27 points per possession. The Celtics scored a decent 1.073 points per possession as well. It's hard not to like the under when teams are playing that slowly and need to shoot such a high percentage. The Cavs are very capable of torching the nets, but at this number I have to take the under. There's a specific system that backs. Here's the playoff system: -The home team lost the previous game by more than 6 points. -The spread is anywhere from home team -3.5 to home team +6.5. -The total is 195.5 or higher -The road team allows 44% shooting or higher -The home team allows 45% shooting or higher The under is a perfect 13-0 in this system. Why? My theory here is the home team shows pride after being beaten at home last game, and they play better defense as the oddsmakers adjust the total upward. The under then gets more value. The mediocre defensive numbers make sense because we know that in the long run mediocre or poor defenses get much better in the playoffs because there is a lot more effort exerted on that end of the floor. Take the under here. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 210 | 105-115 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Monday Game 7 Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics meet in a crucial Game 7 matchup on Monday night in Boston. The winner moves on to meet the Cavs. The loser goes home for the year. The later you get in a playoff series in the NBA, the slower the tempo generally is. When a team is on the brink of elimination, they typically slow the game down and play much better defense. I had the under in game six, which cashed in easily. I don't expect the shooting numbers to be as bad in game 7, and the number has been adjusted lower. Still, I see value on the under. Why? Look at the pace at which last game was played. The average pace in this series has been almost 99 possessions. Last game, the game was played to a tempo of just 93.58 possessions. That's a dramatic difference and at that kind of pace it takes some very good shooting or a bunch of free throws to get past 210 points. A couple angles of note- 1. In Game 6 and Game 7 of the NBA playoffs- when the spread is 7 points or less and the under is getting 51% or less of the overall bets, the under is a whopping 73-37 in the last 110. That's 66.4%. 2. In that same scenario from above- when the Boston Celtics are involved in the game- the under has cashed 13 straight times. The Celtics have been elimination game under machines. Because the number has been dropped by a lot I won't make it a big play this time, but I will once again take the under. Take the under here. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Celtics/Wizards 100% System Play* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards square off in Washington DC on Friday night. The Wizards took care of business in the first two games at home in this series, and they'll have to do that again here if they are going to keep their season going. Throughout this series so far, both offenses have been extremely efficient. The tempo has averaged 99 possessions. The Celtics are averaging 1.13 points per possession. The Wizards are averaging 1.10 points per possession. Both of these are well above even their regular season averages. Generally, in the playoffs the offensive efficiency numbers go down. I think this is an opportunity to get good value on the under. The later in the series we get, the slower the tempo generally becomes. The importance of the games mean better defense is played as well. A couple great systems here. First, in a game 6 or 7 of the playoffs, when the spread is no more than 6.5 points and at least 50% of the overall bets are on the over, the under is a whopping 72-37 (66.1%). That alone is a tremendous angle. Let's make it even better. In the Celtics last 12 games that fit this system, all 12 of them have stayed under the total. This is a perfect 12-0 under system on Celtics elimination games staying under the total. This number is inflated by a few points. Take the under. |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 214 | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 6 in Houston. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play by many, but he is still listed as questionable for this one. The Spurs won in overtime in Game 5. That was a game that was played to by far the slowest tempo of any game in this series during regulation. The game finished at 217 points even with an overtime. Over the years I've found that the tempo slows down and typically the defenses get better when more is on the line. There's a bunch on the line here. Houston is looking to avoid elimination from the playoffs. There's a strong system that backs this. In a Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs with the following information: -Home team shoots 45% or better from the floor -The home team win percentage is 67.5% or lower -The spread is no more than 7.5 points in either direction The under is a whopping 38-13 (75%) in these situations. This game fits this situation. Take the under. |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls are looking to try to stay alive after losing 3 straight to the Boston Celtics. The Bulls are expected to be without Rajon Rondo again in this one. Without Rondo, the pace of the games has slowed down drastically. The first couple games were pacing at about 97 possessions per game. The last three have been 93.5 on average. That's a big drop and it makes it hard to surpass this total. For some perspective, the 93.58 possessions the last 3 games have averaged out to is slower than any team in the NBA played on average during the regular season. We know that Game 6 and Game 7's in the playoffs often get slower. When there is so much on the line, the game slows down and the defenses usually get better. In Game 6 and Game 7 situations, the under is a perfect 15-0 in the last 15 games with these specifics- -The total is 191 or higher -The spread is between home team -7.5 and home team +5 -The home team has won 60% or less of their games on the year -The home team's defensive field goal percentage allowed is 45.6% or lower This game fits the system. Look for a slower pace and a hard fought game. Take the under. |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 210 | 115-99 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards play Game 6 of their series on Friday night. Game 6 and Game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been good under plays in general, and when you take a closer look at specific stats the trend gets even stronger. When the home team in that game has won 62% or less of their games, and the under is getting 37% or less of the bets, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 games. That's a pretty strong trend. The pace has slowed down in this series. The slowest game by far was Game 5. The Hawks have a much better chance of winning if they slow the game down. The Hawks ranked fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season, but they ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Atlanta needs to slop this game up to try to continue on to Game 7. With the importance of the game, 210 is an awfully high number. Backed by long-term trends, I'll definitely side with the under here. Take the under. |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 190 | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* This is a Game 6 where Memphis is looking to stave off elimination. NBA elimination games have typically been strong under plays, especially in particular situations. This game fits a couple of key situations. When it is game 6 or game 7 in the NBA playoffs and the home team has a win percentage of less than 62%, and the spread of the game is between home team -6 and home team +7 points, the under is a whopping 48-19 (71.6%). These two offenses absolutely went off last game, and that caused the oddsmakers to move the number up. The Spurs scored 1.323 points per possession last game. The Grizzlies scored 1.231 points per possession. This is record territory. The pace was played to a VERY slow 85 possessions. If they keep playing at that pace, the under has significant value. The Spurs were one of the top defenses in the NBA and the Grizzlies will fight hard defensively with their backs against the wall. Take the under. |
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04-24-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 191.5 | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play PERFECTION* The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks played an extremely low scoring game in Game Four. That game finished 30.5 points under the posted total. This kind of huge difference from the posted total is going to create a response from the oddsmakers. We've seen that result in the posted total going from 195 last game to 191.5 in this game. Keep in mind that the posted total in the first game between these two was actually 200.5 when it first came out. A nine point adjustment from game one to game five is a huge adjustment. Toronto and Milwaukee are both underperforming drastically on offense compared to their season numbers. Toronto has been the least efficient offense in the NBA playoffs so far through four games. They are averaging only 0.94 points per possession. In the regular season, they finished sixth with 1.098 points per possession. The Milwaukee defense is no better than average, and I expect Toronto to shoot the ball better. Milwaukee's offense averaged 1.068 points per possession in the regular season. They are now at 1.014 points per possession in this series. There's a strong system play backing this one. When the last game went under the total by more than 27 points and in the following game the home team is favored by 4.5 points or more, the over is a perfect 16-0 in the 16 times this situation has come up in the last 10 years. The tendency is for the offenses to bounce back after such a terrible showing. With the strong angle and the reduced line, I'll take the over. |
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04-23-17 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 198.5 | 98-105 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Clippers/Jazz Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers meet in an important game four matchup in Salt Lake City. Utah won the first game in LA, but they have lost the last two games. Chris Paul put on a show to win the game for the Clippers late in the fourth. Blake Griffin is out and Rudy Gobert is doubtful for this game. The under was 11-8 in the 19 games Griffin missed during the regular season. There's a lot more pressure on Paul to be great on offense when Griffin isn't in the game. The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace in the first 3 games is 91.5 possessions. These two teams are playing almost exclusively in the halfcourt. The shooting percentages have been extremely high in this series. Last game alone, the Clippers averaged a whopping 1.25 points per possession and the Jazz averaged 1.18 points per possession. That kind of efficiency isn't sustainable in the long run. Look for things to go back to a normal rate. Remember, the first two games in this series stayed under the total. Take the under. |
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04-23-17 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224.5 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sunday Afternoon MONEYMAKER* The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully slowed the tempo down in this series. Now, they just need to get some improved defense. Still, the fact that the average pace in this series is 99.6 possessions per game is very telling. It's really difficult to consistently get to a total this high when you aren't playing any faster than that. The free throw numbers have been really high the last couple games, and the Thunder shot better than 55% last game. That game still only cleared this total by 3.5 points. This game fits a nice long-term system. The team with the lower winning percentage is hosting the game and the spread is between -2.5 and +4.5 on the home team. The total is above 190.5. In this situation, the under is 58-23 (71.6%) in the last 81 games. This total is several points too high. Take the under here. |
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04-22-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 188 | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs are no strangers to really low scoring games against each other. Though regular season games are generally higher scoring than playoff contests, 3 of the 4 regular season games between these two finished below this posted total. That includes one game that finished 95-89 in overtime. Memphis scored 1.238 points per possession last game against a really good Spurs defense. I don't think that is going to happen again. The Grizzlies aren't very efficient on offense this year, and the Spurs are good at guarding without fouling. The tempo of each of these games has been really slow. The average pace of the games in this series has been 86.88 possessions. That is five possessions slower than the next slowest paced playoff series thus far. The defenses should be better in this one. Take the under. |
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04-21-17 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224 | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets aren't playing all that fast in this series. The pace of the first two games averaged 100 possessions. That's much slower than the regular season games between these two teams. The first game stayed under the total by a huge amount as Oklahoma City languished on offense. Game two went over this number by two points as there were 65 free throws in the game. There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation. -The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team. -The total is 190.5 points or higher. -The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team. That fits this game perfectly. I see this total being a few points too high. Take the under. |
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04-21-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 207.5 | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Celtics/Bulls Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics have finished with 208 points total in each of the first two games. When you consider only that, the line of 207.5 makes a lot of sense. Let's look a little deeper though. The average pace is only 97 possessions per game through the first two. The Bulls are averaging 1.111 points per possession through the first two games. In the regular season, the Bulls averaged 1.046 points per possession. That kind of jump in offensive efficiency in the playoffs is almost unheard of. In the playoffs, defenses toughen up and the pace slows down because of the importance of the games. No game is more important than this one to the Celtics, who absolutely have to win this game. Look for improved defense from them here. In the regular season, these teams met four times. None of those four games finished higher than 207 points. Playoff games are generally lower scoring, and I think the first two games being high is giving us value on the under. There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation. -The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team. -The total is 190.5 points or higher. -The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team. Look for a return to normalcy and an under here. Take the under. |
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04-16-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 209 | 107-114 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Playoff Early Bird Winner* The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks played four times during the regular season. Three of the four games went under the posted total. That's important because generally the defense ramps up significantly in the playoffs and games are lower scoring because of the importance of the game. Both of these teams play at an average tempo, so there shouldn't be an extremely quick pace. These two defenses have matched up well in the past, and I expect them to be good again here. Early games on Sunday have always been strong to the under, and first round playoff games have been good under plays in the past as well. This game fits a nice playoff system: Play on the under in a first round playoff game that starts before 6 pm eastern and the total is at least 190.5. The under is 35-17 in the last 52 games that fits this system. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the under. |
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04-12-17 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 206.5 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Regular Season Finale CASH* The Orlando Magic have decided to play much faster late in the season. In their last eight games, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA in tempo. For the season as a whole, they rank 14th in the league in pace. The Magic are experimenting with a quick pace as the season comes to a close. Orlando's defense has suffered in a big way when they have experimented with playing faster. The Magic are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Detroit has some good young players who are getting some minutes now including Ish Smith at the point guard spot and Boban Marjanovic, and I see them being able to score on this bad Orlando defense. Orlando's offense is coming off one of their franchises worst all time offensive performances. After a game like that, it is generally a good idea to expect a much better performance. The shooting numbers are unlikely to be that bad again, and these professionals usually show some pride. Take the over. |
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04-11-17 | Suns v. Kings OVER 219 | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Phoenix Suns have been really good on offense down the stretch. Not only are they pushing the pace, but they are being much more efficient on offense in the last few weeks of the season. Tyler Ulis is doing a great job running the point for this team, and he is getting guys like T.J. Warren and Devin Booker more open looks. The Sacramento Kings just gave up 135 points last game to the Houston Rockets. Sacramento has now allowed 117 points or more in three of their last five games. On the other side, Phoenix has allowed 120 points or more in six of their last nine games. The Suns defense is brutal. Offensively, Phoenix has scored 116 points ore more in six of their last nine games. Neither team has anything to play for, and I expect the tempo to be quick all the way in this one. Take the over. |
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04-09-17 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 219.5 | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Sunday Night 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves meet on Sunday night in a game that means nothing to either team. I'm not even sure either of these teams actually want to win this game. When you have no motivation to win a game, the first thing that goes is the defense. At the end of the regular season, the over has done better than the under in the past few seasons, and that has been especially true in games between teams who have no shot at the playoffs. Minnesota ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 8 games. The Timberwolves aren't even pretending to try on defense right now. The Lakers aren't good on defense either. Minnesota has played faster of late, and I think this will be an uptempo game where both teams get a lot of easy shots. The over is 7-0 in Minnesota's last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Pacific Division. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Los Angeles. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings overall between these two teams. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. |
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04-05-17 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 198.5 | 105-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons aren't the same on offense without Reggie Jackson. He was averaging more than 14 points per game, and this team doesn't have many guys like him who can get their own shots at any time. Toronto was embarrassed by blowing a big lead last night, and the Raptors will want to bounce back here. This game is important to both teams with the Pistons still technically alive for the playoffs and the the Raptors fighting for positioning near the top of the Eastern Conference. Both teams rank in the top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. Detroit ranks second to last in that same time period in offensive efficiency. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of tempo. The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games when playing against a team with a winning home record. The under is 8-0 in the Pistons last 8 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic Division. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-02-17 | Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 223.5 | 115-139 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Sunday NBA BEST Bet* The Golden State Warriors have quietly been a tremendous under team of late. The under is a whopping 16-2 in games Kevin Durant doesn't play this year. Golden State has surprisingly slowed their tempo down drastically. I believe it was to focus on their defense, and it is working very well. Golden State ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. That means they are playing slower than the average NBA team during that period. The Warriors are also first in the league in defensive efficiency during that time period. They are allowing only 0.978 points per possession in that period. Washington ranks 11th in the league in tempo during the last eight games. The Wizards offense has been less efficient on the road by a large margin this year. Taking the under late in the year when two good teams are playing against each other is a 60% plus angle in the past five years. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in the Warriors last 11 home games. A 22-1 angle. Take the under. |
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04-02-17 | Mavs v. Bucks UNDER 197 | 109-105 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavs play a game that tips off at 2:35 central time on Sunday. These early start time games have trended strongly toward the under in the past few years, so that is a nice bonus for this one. Dallas will be without Seth Curry here. Curry is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Milwaukee's Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a back injury and he is averaging 10 points per game on the season. Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo in the past month. The tempo should be very slow in this game. Neither of these teams are terribly efficient on offense either, and with some good offensive players missing, the defenses should have the edge. The under is 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 road games. The under is 14-6 in the Bucks last 20 games. The early sharp money is on the under. I agree and I'll take the under here. |
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04-02-17 | Hornets v. Thunder UNDER 214.5 | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Charlotte Hornets rank 27th in the NBA in tempo in that same period. I wouldn't expect the pace of this game to be all that fast, especially for a game with a posted total set this high. The Charlotte Hornets defense has been really bad of late, but I expect that to show positive regression over the next few games. After all, Charlotte's defense ranks better than the league average for the year. Oklahoma City is playing slightly better on defense of late, and the Thunder are much better on defense at home. The under is 7-0 in the last 7 Thunder games when playing as a home favorite with a total of 207 or higher. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games in OKC between these two teams. Take the under. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 230 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Friday night. Houston is coming off a loss last night to Portland in the late night game on TNT. James Harden is dealing with a minor wrist injury, and he shot only 2/13 from 3 point range on Thursday night. Harden also attacked the rim less frequently than normal. Golden State beat Houston on the road earlier this week 113-106. The Warriors defense has been the best in the NBA in the past ten games in terms of efficiency, and it really hasn't been even close. Golden State is allowing only 0.957 points per possession in their last nine contests. Golden State has also played at only the 13th quickest tempo in the league in their last nine games. The Warriors aren't running as much as they were in the past, and they are winning with defense. This number is so high that it only takes one low scoring quarter to cash this one. The under is 6-0-1 in the Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-29-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 209 | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Golden State Warriors Wednesday night. This is obviously a big game for both teams. There is a strong system that I follow late in the season in the NBA. In the system, you play the under when two good teams are playing each other on or after game number 58 of the regular season. If both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, and the game is a conference game, the under is hitting at a 60% clip in the last ten years. Recently, I decided to take this system a step farther. When the home team plays at a pace of 96.2 possessions per game or slower on average, the under is a whopping 114-59 (66%) in the last ten years. This game fits this system as the Spurs average 96.1 possessions per game. Golden State ranks only 12th in the NBA in tempo in their last 9 games. The Spurs rank 25th. The Warriors have slowed things down without Durant, and the Spurs have been slow paced all year. Golden State is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last nine games, and it isn't even close. The Spurs are fourth in the league in defensive efficiency in that span. Expect a tight game where the defenses work very hard. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. The under is 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Antonio. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-28-17 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 234 | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors meet on Tuesday night in a big clash in the Western Conference. Obviously you don't think of unders when you think of these two teams, but Golden State has changed their stripes of late. This will be a contrarian play, but I'm taking the under here. Golden State ranks 13th in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Earlier in the year, Golden State ranked 1st in pace of play. Narrow it down even more, and you'll see that Golden State ranks 21st in pace of play in their last five games. The Warriors have slowed things down in a big way. Golden State also ranks first in the NBA by a wide margin in defensive efficiency in the last ten and last five game sample sizes. Houston has been a league average defense this year. Golden State ranks only 9th in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. With a total set at 234, this is set at such a high level that any one quarter being low should keep it under the total. The under is 13-1 in the Warriors 14 games this year when playing without Kevin Durant. The under is 38-14 in the Warriors last 52 games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams. The first two meetings between these two both stayed under the total in regulation. In this one, the Warriors don't have Kevin Durant's 25.3 points per game. The Rockets also don't have Ryan Anderson's 13.5 points per game due to an injury. Take the under. |
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03-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 203.5 | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls have been terrible on offense of late. In their last 12 games, the Bulls ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are middle of the pack on the defensive end. Milwaukee ranks sixth in defensive efficiency during that same time frame. The Bucks are middle of the pack on offense. Milwaukee also ranks 29th in the league in tempo in their last 12 games. The Bucks have slowed down the pace drastically of late. Chicago ranks 18th, so they are slightly slower than the average team as well. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted this number down enough for the new tempo Milwaukee is playing at of late. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 home games overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-24-17 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 218.5 | 119-130 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angeles Lakers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The posted total here is high, but it isn't high enough. In the past six games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Los Angeles is allowing a ridiculous 1.209 points per possession in their last six games. They've clearly given up on this end of the floor. The second worst defense in the NBA in the last six games is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are allowing 1.142 points per possession during that time. Both teams rank near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency. The offenses should get plenty of open looks in this one. The Lakers continue to push the pace, and they rank in the top five in the NBA on a consistent basis in tempo. This game fits a nice late season over angle. Two teams who both have a winning percentage of 45% or less and the spread is 7 points or less either way. The game must be played in the last 12 games of the regular season. In the past ten years, in these spots, the over is hitting at a 61% clip. The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. |
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03-21-17 | Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 201.5 | 120-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls have been the worst offense in the NBA in the past ten games, and it isn't even close. Chicago is averaging 0.978 points per possession during that time. The second worst offense during that time is averaging 1.02 points per possession. Chicago ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Toronto Raptors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Raptors have been able to manage pretty well without Kyle Lowry thanks to their improved defense. They should play well against this bad Chicago offense. On the other side, Toronto's offensive efficiency numbers are down without Lowry, and that should come as no surprise. A look at the recent pace of both teams shows both of these teams in the bottom ten in the league in tempo. Chicago is actually in the bottom five in tempo in their last five contests. The under is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games. The under is 11-5 in the Raptors last 16 games. Take the under here. |
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03-18-17 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 217 | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Saturday Night CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are now playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, and it isn't even very close. If you look at their last 11 games, Milwaukee's games are nearly a full possession per game slower than anyone else in the NBA. The Bucks have decided that they want to win games by slowing things down and winning low scoring contests. Golden State's offense is obviously very good, but on the whole, they have been a lot less efficient than normal of late. Their totals continued to be posted too high. The under is a whopping 36-17 in their last 53 games. Golden State is actually 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 19 games. Golden State has been top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency all year long. With Milwaukee slowing things down and Golden State playing good defense, this total is several points too high. Take the under. |
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03-13-17 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 202 | 93-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Milwaukee Bucks have drastically slowed down their tempo of late. Milwaukee is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Bucks also rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the last ten games. Milwaukee has been putting in a lot more of an effort on the defensive end, and that has led to their much better play of late. Memphis ranks as the sixth best defense in the NBA for the year as a whole when it comes to defensive efficiency. In their last few games, Memphis has been bad defensively. Who they have played has something to do with it though (Houston and LAC for example). The Grizzlies rank as the third slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. I think Memphis brings better effort in this one after a recent bad stretch. This game should be played at a slow pace. The early sharp money is on the under. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams. Take the under. |
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03-12-17 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 207 | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Miami Heat have relied on point guard Goran Dragic very heavily this year. Dragic is questionable for this game with an eye injury. Dragic had extreme swelling around his eye last night. He will likely either miss this game, or be less than 100 percent. Indiana has completely changed the way they play of late. They ranked as one of the top ten in tempo through the first few months of the year. Of late, the Pacers have slowed the game down a lot. The oddsmakers have had a hard time adjusting their totals. Miami and Indiana are both moving slowly of late, in fact. In their last five contests, Miami ranks 25th in tempo and Indiana ranks 27th. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I think this total is several points too high. The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 vs. the NBA Southeast. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |