Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-22-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 9 | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Clay Buchholz was one of the worst pitchers in the majors through the first couple months of the season, but he has turned it around in a big way. Buchholz has a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. He is throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count. Jeff Weaver was lit up last game for the first time this year. Weaver is a candidate for AL CY Young and I expect him to bounce back strong here. Neither of these offenses are clicking particularly well right now. Brian Runge is a great under umpire behind the dish. Take the under here.
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08-22-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's OVER 8 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tom Milone was virtually unhittable at home through most of the season, but it seems he has hit a wall of late. In his last four starts he has allowed 21 runs. The Twins offense is healthy now, and they are fully capable of putting up several runs here. Liam Hendriks pitches for the Twins, and he has struggled badly on the road. He has a 9.00 ERA away from home this year. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Milone's last 4 starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 between these two teams in Oakland. Take the over.
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08-21-12 | San Francisco: T Lincecum v. Los Angeles: J Blanton OVER 7.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tim Lincecum has struggled all season against quality lineups. The Dodgers lineup is much better now with Victorino, Kemp, Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez all very dangerous in the lineup. The Giants lineup is pretty good as well, and Joe Blanton simply isn't any better than a mediocre pitcher. Blanton has a horrible 8.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. The over is 7-0 in Lincecum's last 7 as a road underdog. The over is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a righty. Take the over here.
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08-21-12 | New York Yankees v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees may have the best lineup in baseball right now. Ichiro Suzuki gives the team another great hitter at the bottom of the order. Everyone in the lineup is capable of going deep. Francisco Liriano is an inconsistent pitcher, and I don't see him shutting down the Yankees. Ivan Nova has pitched very poorly of late. Nova has 6.38 ERA in his last 3 starts. The White Sox offense has been clicking of late. The over is 6-0 in Nova's last 6 as an underdog. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.
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08-20-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Tim Hudson and Jordan Zimmerman are two very good pitchers. In fact, you could make a good argument that Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in the majors right now. Zimmerman simply doesn't get the attention he deserves, but that gives us great value on the under in his games. Zimmerman has a great 2.38 ERA this year. Hudson has a spectacular 3.06 ERA on the road this season. The under is 14-3 in the Braves last 17 against a righty. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 in the first game of a series. Take the under.
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08-20-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeremy Hellickson was on the other side when King Felix threw his perfect game last week. Hellickson was the tough luck loser after giving up just one run in the game. Hellickson has a great history of pitching well in Tampa Bay. The Rays piled up the runs this past weekend, which I believe has given us some extra value on the under here. Tampa Bay's offense is certainly better now that they are healthy, but this still isn't a particularly potent offensive team. The under is 22-5-2 in Hellickson's last 29 home starts. The under is 106-49-8 in the Rays last 163 home games. Take the under.
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08-19-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | 8-0 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Kyle Kendrick and Randy Wolf are two pitchers I like to play the 'over' with. Both of these guys are very inconsistent, and they allow a lot of base runners. The Brewers offense has been very good of late, especially at home. The Phillies offense isn't great, but it is better than most realize. The over is 21-5 in Kendrick's last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 games following a loss. Look for both starting pitchers to struggle. Take the over in this one.
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08-19-12 | Baltimore: W Chen v. Detroit: D Fister UNDER 8.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Baltimore Orioles took Game Two last night in Detroit, and this one will be the rubber match. This series has a bit of a playoff atmosphere to it. Both teams are fighting for the wild card spots right now to get into the playoffs. Chen has been the Orioles best pitcher all year. Fister has been excellent of late. Detroit has struggled against lefties this season. The under is 9-0 in Baltimore's last 9 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under.
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08-18-12 | Minnesota: S Diamond v. Seattle: J Vargas UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners can't hit much at all at home. Seattle has the worst batting average in the majors at home this year. Scott Diamond is the Twins best pitcher by quite a bit right now. Diamond has an ERA under 3 in his rookie season. On the other side, Jason Vargas is terrific at home. He has an ERA just about 2.5 at home this season. This is a pitchers ballpark and neither team seems likely to get much going here. The under is 7-0 in Vargas' last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under.
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08-18-12 | San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres OVER 7.5 | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The San Francisco Giants have been red hot at the plate of late. Eric Stults has been solid so far this year, but I don't expect him to have the stuff to shut down the Giants. With Panda, Posey, and Pence in the middle of the order the Giants are a real threat on offense now. Barry Zito is pitching poorly of late, and when it goes bad for him it often goes very bad. He has an ERA above 7 in his last 3 starts. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 road games against a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Zito's last 4 starts on 5 days rest. The over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams in San Diego. Take the over.
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08-18-12 | New York (N): J Niese v. Washington: E Jackson OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total Winner* Don't look now, but the Washington Nationals now have a pretty good offense. The Nationals have won with pitching all year, but now that they are healthy they are scoring runs in bunches. Washington has scored more runs than any other team in the majors since the All-Star break. Edwin Jackson is a streaky pitcher who has been struggling of late, and I expect the Mets to put up some runs here. The over is 7-0 in the Nationals last 7 games overall. The over is 7-0 in the Nationals last 7 against a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in the Mets last 5 Saturday games. Take the over.
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08-18-12 | Pittsburgh: E Bedard v. St Louis: L Lynn OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Erik Bedard has some ridiculous home/away splits this year. Bedard has a sparkling 2.63 ERA at home and a horrible 6.75 ERA on the road. He'll face a Cardinals lineup that is very good against lefties in this one. St. Louis averages 5.36 runs per game against lefties this year. Lance Lynn has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 10 starts. He seems to have lost control of his fastball of late. Both of these teams have been hitting the ball well of late, and we get a solid over umpire here too. Take the over.
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08-17-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* James McDonald was terrific earlier this year, but the wheels have fallen off for him of late. The Cardinals arguably have the best lineup in the National League now that they are healthy. St. Louis lost in a heartbreaker last night, and I expect the offense to be ready for this one. Jake Westbrook has been good this year, but the Pirates have hit him hard in the past. Neither pitcher seems destined to have a very good game here. I think this total is set too low. I like the value on the over in this contest.
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08-17-12 | Boston: F Morales v. New York (A): P Hughes OVER 9.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees MLB Total* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees may be going in different directions, but they are still major rivals. Both offenses are patient and can score runs in bunches. Phil Hughes has been shaky again of late, and the Red Sox have hit him very well in the past. Morales has pitched well this year, but the Yankees are great against lefties. The over is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 against the Red Sox. The over is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts overall. The total is set relatively low for a Red Sox/Yankees game. Take the over.
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08-16-12 | Los Angeles: J Blanton v. Pittsburgh: A Burnett OVER 7.5 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* A.J. Burnett has been terrific all year. Still, Burnett is an inconsistent pitcher who is capable of getting lit up at any point. The Dodgers lineup has quickly become one of the best in the NL. With Kemp, Ethier, Victorino, and Ramirez this team can pile up the runs. On the other side, Joe Blanton starts for the Dodgers and he certainly isn't a guy you can trust. Blanton is a guy who typically ends with an ERA of about 5 every year. Angel Campos is an over umpire, and this one is set too low. Take the over.
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08-15-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Roy Halladay didn't look healthy when he first came back from the disabled list, but he has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched. The Miami Marlins have been shutout in three straight games. It's hard to imagine them getting too many against Halladay. Mark Buehrle has been great at home all year. Buehrle has a 2.94 ERA at home this year. He also has a 2.50 ERA in day games this year. The Phillies are likely to sit some of their stars here since this is a get away day. The under is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 4-0-2 in Buehrle's last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the under.
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08-14-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Kyle Kendrick isn't a reliable pitcher. The Marlins offense hasn't been good of late, but they should be able to get to Kendrick some in this one. Josh Johnson is still getting huge respect from the oddsmakers, but he is 7-8 with a 3.88 ERA this year. Johnson is still a pretty good pitcher, but he doesn't have the dominating form of the last couple years. The Phillies offense is better than most realize right now, and the Marlins now have Stanton back in the lineup. Look for a higher scoring game here. Take the over.
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08-12-12 | Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 4-7 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals are playing some amazing baseball right now. There weren't many who expected them to have the best record in baseball at this point. Washington has done it with tremendous pitching. Ross Detwiler has a 2.99 ERA on the season. He has been very sharp of late. Patrick Corbin is a highly touted prospect for the Diamondbacks, and he has been good in his last three starts. D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he has a wide strike zone. Look for a low scoring contest here. Take the under.
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08-12-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Bruce Chen has some ridiculous splits this season. Chen has been decent at home, but he has a horrible 6.29 ERA on the road this year. Tommy Hunter has a 5.55 ERA overall this year, and he just doesn't have the kind of stuff to put away good hitters on a consistent basis. Hunter has a 6.53 ERA during the daytime this year. Chen has an awful 8.10 ERA during the day this year. The over is 7-1-1 in Chen's last 9 starts. Angel Campos is one of the best over umpires in the business and he is behind the dish here. Take the over.
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08-09-12 | San Francisco: Bumgarner v. St Louis: Wainwright UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The San Francisco Giants beat the St. Louis Cardinals 15-0 last night. The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright on the hill for this one, and he has been rounding into form of late. Wainwright has a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts. Madison Bumgarner has been very good all year for the Giants. Bumgarner is 12-6 with a 3.03 ERA in 2012. This is a day game on get away day, and that usually means that lineups may be a bit weaker than normal. Brian Runge is the umpire here, and he has a huge strike zone. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 games behind home plate. Look for a well-pitched game from both sides in this one. Take the under.
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08-07-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Michael Fiers is flying under the radar so far, but that is fine with me. Fiers is a very good young pitcher who has a deceptive delivery. In 11 starts he has a 1.88 ERA. The Reds lineup has slumped a bit in the last few days and they might be starting to miss Votto. Johnny Cueto has a 2.52 ERA for the year, and he has been consistently very good all season. These two pitchers squared off a few weeks ago in Cincinnati and the final was 2-1 Reds. Look for another low scoring tight contest. Take the under.
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08-05-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Dan Haren had a down year by his standards, and he doesn't seem to be completely healthy. The White Sox are seventh in the majors in runs scored, so they definitely can put up some runs. Francisco Liriano has been extremely inconsistent this year. The Angels have scored ten runs on him in his two starts against them this season. The Angels' offense is producing as well as anyone in baseball right now. The over is 6-0 in the Angels last 6 as an underdog. The over is 6-0 in the White Sox last 6 home games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Take the over.
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08-05-12 | Seattle: H Iwakuma v. New York (A): F Garcia OVER 10 | 2-6 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Freddie Garcia starts here for the Yankees. Garcia has an ERA over 6 at home this year and over 7 in day games this year. Seattle's offense has been decent on the road, and I suspect they should be able to put up several runs against Garcia. The Yankees lineup was shut out yesterday by Felix Hernandez. Expect the Yankees the get back on track against a much less talented pitcher Sunday afternoon. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15-20 mph, and we have an umpire with a small strike zone here. Take the over.
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08-05-12 | Cleveland: C Seddon v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 9.5 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Max Scherzer has a good record this year, but that is primarily because he gets great run support. Scherzer has been inconsistent, and he is fully capable of giving up a bunch of runs in a single inning. Cleveland has several guys who have hit him extremely well in the past. Chris Seddon starts for the Indians. Seddon hasn't pitched in the major leagues in two years. In his short career in the majors, he had an ERA above 7. He has pitched decent in AAA this year, but I don't think he'll fare well against a strong Tigers lineup. Take the over.
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08-04-12 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jeremy Hellickson has been great at home through his first few years in the majors. Baltimore's offense has struggled a bit of late. Wei-Yin Chen has pitched extremely well of late. He is a left-hander with good command of all his pitches. Tampa Bay's offense is short-handed right now, and the Rays struggle mightily against lefties. The under is 21-5-2 in Hellickson's last 28 home starts. The under is also 101-48-8 in the Rays last 157 home games. Look for a low scoring contest. Take the under.
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08-04-12 | Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Texas Rangers' offense has struggled through the last few weeks, but I'm confident this team will start scoring runs in bunches again soon. This lineup is simply too deep and too good to keep down. Will Smith has had a couple nice starts for the Royals, but I don't think he is ready for a team who hits left-handers as well as Texas does. Scott Feldman is an extremely inconsistent pitcher, and I expect the Royals to score several. Tim McClelland is the home umpire here, and he pinches the strike zone as much as any umpire does in the league. The over is 18-7-1 in Feldman's last 26 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the over.
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08-04-12 | Seattle: F Hernandz v. New York (A): H Kuroda UNDER 8 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Hiroki Kuroda has started 4 games during the daytime this season. He has pitched 30 innings in those games, and he has yet to give up an earned run. A 0.0 ERA through 30 innings is something that really catches my eye. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he seems to rise to the occasion when he plays against the Yankees. Both of these pitchers are fully capable of shutting down the opposing offense. The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. Take the under.
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08-02-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox OVER 10 | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Minnesota Twins offense has gotten healthy over the last few weeks. Minnesota has been piling up the runs of late, especially against left-handed pitching. Jon Lester has been awful this year, and he has been even worse of late. Lester has a 13.50 ERA in his last three starts. Samuel Deduno has been solid this year, but he should struggle against this great Boston lineup. Boston is really swinging it well now that they are healthy. Look for the Red Sox to put up the runs in bunches down the stretch this season. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 road games. The over is 4-0 in Lester's last 4 starts. A nice 9-0 angle backs this one, and I like both teams to put up a big number here. Take the over.
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07-31-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Derrick Lowe and Luke Hochevar are both guys who allow a ton of base runners and try to work out of jams. Lowe got away with it earlier in the year, but he has been blasted of late. Lowe has an ERA over 9 in his last 3 starts. Hochevar has an ERA of 5.7 in his home starts this season. The Indians have several guys with great career numbers against Hochevar. The over is 8-1 in Hochevar's last 9 starts against the Indians. The over is 20-5-2 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Kansas City. Take the over.
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07-31-12 | Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8 | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Kris Medlen hasn't started a game in a couple years, and he isn't expected to throw more than 75 pitches in this one. The Marlins offense isn't great, but I expect them to put up a few runs here. Ricky Nolasco is a streaky pitcher, and he is pitching terrible of late. The Braves have several guys who have hit him extremely well in the past. Nolasco gave up 6 earned runs in his last start against Atlanta. The Braves offense seems to be coming together right now. I like this play largely because I believe 8 is too low of a number considering the circumstances. Take the over.
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07-29-12 | Chicago (A): G Floyd v. Texas: S Feldman OVER 10.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* Several key factors come together to make this one a 5 Star Top Play. Gavin Floyd and Scott Feldman have both be extremely inconsistent this season. Both of these guys are fully capable of giving up 7 or 8 runs in one game. The Rangers have the deepest line up in baseball, and the White Sox have been great against right handed pitching all season. A temperature of 102 degrees at game time should really help the ball fly well. Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of my favorite over umpires. The over is 34-16-6 in Holbrook's last 56 games behind home plate. Take the over big.
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07-26-12 | Oakland A's v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 4-10 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Oakland A's are on an amazing run right now. It's hard to imagine this team going on the run they have with such a poor lineup, but they have done it. Oakland has been dead last in team batting average almost all year. The Athletics do it with terrific starting pitching, relief pitching, and defense. Toronto had one of the best offenses in the game at the beginning of the year, but that has changed. Jose Bautista is out and the lineup isn't the same without him. Escobar may miss this game as well, and J.P. Arencibia fractured his hand in last night's game. The A's won last night 16-0. Oakland doesn't have an explosive offense at all, and I think a day game after a night game is a perfect time to expect them to come back down to earth. Look for some regulars to sit in this one on a get away day. Both Tom Milone and Aaron Laffey have been far better than experts predicted. The under is 5-1 in Milone's last 6 games. Take the under.
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07-24-12 | Kansas City: W Smith v. LA Anaheim: G Richards OVER 9 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Angels offense is really clicking right now. You can't say enough about what Mike Trout has done for this lineup. Trout is a hitting machine, and he does major damage on the bases as well. With Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo both hitting well in the middle of the order, this lineup can pile up the runs quickly. Will Smith doesn't appear to be ready for the majors yet, and the Angels have been very good against lefties. Garrett Richards has been wildly inconsistent this season. The over is 7-1 in the Royals last 8 following a loss. The over is 3-0-1 in Richards' last 4. Take the over.
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07-23-12 | Baltimore: T Hunter v. Cleveland: J Mastersn OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tommy Hunter and Justin Masterson have both struggled this season. Hunter has a 5.71 ERA and Masterson has a 4.29 ERA this year. The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for upper 80's and the wind blowing out at 15 to 20 mph on Monday night. Both of these offenses are good against right-handed pitching. The over is 16-7-1 in Hunter's last 24 starts overall. The over is 4-1 in Masterson's last 5 starts against the Orioles. Look for a higher scoring than most expect in this one. I like the value on the over.
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07-22-12 | Chicago (A): P Humber v. Detroit: J Turner OVER 10 | 4-6 | Push | 0 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jacob Turner doesn't appear to be ready for the majors just yet. He has an ERA over 10 so far this season. Turner should end up being a good pitcher over time, but it seems the Tigers are rushing him. The White Sox lineup is very good against right handed pitchers. Phillip Humber pitched a no-hitter earlier this year, but he has been horrible since then. Humber's ERA is 5.77 for the season. The over is 7-0 in Humber's last 7 starts against teams with a winning record. The over is also 7-0 in Humber's last 7 against the AL Central. Take the over.
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07-20-12 | New York (A): I Nova v. Oakland: T Milone UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Total Bailout* Tom Milone has been spectacular at home this season. He has really flown under the radar out in Oakland, but his 1.03 ERA at home is extremely impressive. He pitched well early this year at home against the Yankees. Ivan Nova is 7-0 with an ERA below 3.5 on the road this year. Oakland has the worst team batting average in the majors. Bill Miller is the umpire behind the plate in this one. Miller is one of my favorite under umpires because of his large strike zone. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4. The under is 6-0 in Oakland's last 6 as a home underdog. The under is 4-0 in Milone's last 4 home starts. Take the under.
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07-20-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* It would be hard to find a match up of pitchers who have struggled more this season than these two. Nick Blackburn has an ERA over 8 this season. He simply hasn't been able to get anyone out. Kansas City's offense has improved of late, and the hot temperatures help the ball carry here. Luke Hochevar has an ERA over 6 at home this year. He is an extremely inconsistent pitcher. He'll be facing a Twins lineup that is healthy and hitting well right now. The over is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 4-1 in Blackburn's last 5 starts. Take the over.
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07-20-12 | Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Seattle Mariners are an interesting team in that they can't seem to hit the ball at all at home, but they hit extremely well on the road. James Shields was excellent last year, but he has struggled in 2012. He has allowed at least ten hits in each of his last three starts. He has an ERA over six during that three game period. Tampa Bay's offense is slowly heating up. A healthy Matt Joyce helps in the middle of the order. I believe this total is set like it should have been last year when Shields was dominating. Both of these pitchers have been struggling recently. Take the over.
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07-19-12 | SF GIANTS v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Giants and Braves played 11 innings Wednesday. There was also a rain delay before the game. The game didn't end until well after midnight. Now, they must come back and play again less than 12 hours later. This situation is a good one for the under since I expect several regulars to rest here. In addition, the Braves have struggled against lefties all year and Madison Bumgarner is a very good one. Tim Hudson was hit hard in his last outing, but I think he bounces back here. We get a solid under umpire here in DJ Reyburn. Look for this to be a low scoring affair. Take the under.
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07-18-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 | 10-6 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Tampa Bay Rays' offense isn't the same without Evan Longoria. Tampa Bay has been an 'under' machine at home the past couple years. The under is 97-47-6 in the Rays' last 150 home games. Jeremy Hellickson has been great at home his entire time in the majors. He has an impressive 3.12 ERA at home this season. Justin Masterson was lit up in his last start against the Rays, but I expect him to bounce back in this one. Dan Iassogna is the home-plate umpire here. He has a wide strike zone and I believe both pitchers will take advantage of that in this one. Take the under.
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07-17-12 | LA Anaheim: G Richards v. Detroit: J Turner OVER 10 | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The times have changed quickly for the Los Angeles Angels offense. Earlier this year the offense was a major disappointment, but now they are one of the hottest in the majors. Mike Trout is an amazing spark for this team at the leadoff spot. Jacob Turner is just 21 years old, and he has struggled in the majors so far in his career. The Angels lineup will likely make things tough on him tonight. Garrett Richards has an 8.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Richards has a 5.79 ERA on the road this year. Detroit's lineup is a tough one to navigate through too. The over is 11-2 in the Angels last 13 road games. Take the over.
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07-15-12 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Stephen Strasburg had a couple of slightly subpar starts right before the break, but he is absolutely an elite pitcher in the majors. Ricky Nolasco is one of the most streaky pitchers in all of baseball, and he is red hot of late. Nolasco has a 0.92 ERA in his last 3 starts. Strasburg has a 2.82 ERA for the season overall. Both of these offenses are missing key players right now. The under is 5-0-1 in the Marlins last 6. The under is 5-0 in the Nationals last 5. The under is 6-1 in Nolasco's last 7 starts against the Nationals. The under is 4-1 in Strasburg's last 5 starts against the Marlins. Take the under.
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07-15-12 | Cleveland: D Lowe v. Toronto: Villanueva OVER 9.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Derek Lowe has allowed far too many base runners all year. Lowe has a terrible WHIP of 1.58 on the season. Toronto's offense is clicking right now with Lawrie at the leadoff spot. The Rogers Center has been great for overs, especially during the daytime this year. Carlos Villanueva isn't a dominating pitcher, and the Indians offense is as healthy as they have been all year. The first game of this series was a 1-0 final. The second game of the series was an 11-9 Blue Jays win. Look for this finale to be like yesterday's high scoring contest. Take the over.
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07-14-12 | San Diego: E Volquez v. Los Angeles: A Harang UNDER 7 | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Padres have the worst offense in the NL. The Dodgers have Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier back now, but this still isn't a great lineup. Edison Volquez has been absolutely dealing of late. He has a 0.92 ERA in his last 3 starts. Aaron Harang has been solid this year for the Dodgers, especially at home. Harang has a nice 2.80 ERA at home this year. Greg Gibson is the umpire here, and the under is 49-24-6 in his last 79 games behind the dish. The under is 4-1 in the Padres last 5. The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7. Take the under.
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07-14-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals played late into the night last night. Both teams used up the bullpens in the 14 inning marathon game. This tends to lead to higher scoring games the following day since fewer bullpen pitchers are well-rested and ready for this one. Luke Hochevar has a 6.57 ERA at home this year, and he is coming off an injury. Jake Peavy has been great this year, but he has been slightly more hittable of late. Tim Tschida is one of the best over umps in the business. With a hot temperature and wind blowing out, the conditions are great. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. Take the over.
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07-14-12 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Both of these pitchers are on their game right now. Gio Gonzalez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this year. He is 12-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 2012. Mark Buehrle has a 0.83 ERA in his last 3 games. Buehrle has been dealing at home this season. Both of these offenses have been struggling of late, and both are without a couple key players. These pitchers are good at minimizing big innings, and that should be enough to keep this under the total. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under here.
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07-14-12 | LA Anaheim: J Williams v. New York (A): F Garcia OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* The Los Angeles Angels offense started the year slowly, but they are crushing the ball of late. Mike Trout has made a massive difference for this lineup. The Yankees have had one of the best offenses all season. This pitching matchup of Jerome Williams and Freddy Garcia led me to look at the over in this one to start with. Neither guy has overpowering stuff at all. Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire here, and he is a great over umpire. His tiny strike zone should hurt both of these pitchers. The over is 9-1 in the Angels last 10 road games. The over is 4-1 in the Yankees last 5. Take the over big!
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07-13-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 9 | 9-8 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals both struggle against left-handed pitchers. Bruce Chen has an ERA over 7 on the road, but he has a solid 3.21 ERA at home this year. The White Sox have a poor history against Chen. Jose Quintana has been great since coming to the majors earlier this year. Quintana has only allowed more than 2 earned runs once, and that was against the Yankees. The under is 6-1 in Quintana's last 7 starts. The under is 5-1 in the White Sox last 6 road games against a lefty. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
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07-13-12 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* I really like the pitching matchup here. Josh Johnson didn't start the season very well, but he has rounded into form very nicely of late. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball right now. Both of these guys have been hurt by poor run production by their team's offense when they are pitching. Both of these offenses are short-handed right now, and I don't think these teams can put up too many against such a good opposing pitcher. The under is 3-1-1 in Johnson's last 5 home starts. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Take the under.
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07-08-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been dreadful of late. The Dodgers have scored more than 4 runs just once in the past two weeks. Trevor Bauer is a highly ranked pitching prospect, and I think he can tame this very weak Dodgers lineup. Chris Capuano has been pitching extremely well all year. Capuano has a 2.68 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks offense isn't nearly as explosive when Chase Field has the roof closed. The roof is set to be closed for this one. The under is 5-0 in Capuano's last 5 starts. The under is 19-7 in the DBacks last 26 Sunday games. Take the under.
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07-08-12 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 11 | 11-9 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Total Error* I really don't understand how the oddsmakers came up with this number. Brett Cecil is an inconsistent lefty, but the White Sox are hitting just .234 against lefties this year. Axelrod is a good looking young pitcher for the White Sox. The weather is expected to be more moderate as far as the temperature here. I expected a total of 9.5 or so, so seeing 11 really shocked me. D.J. Reyburn is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the better under umpires in the league. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 road games against a righty. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
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07-08-12 | Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* Ryan Dempster hasn't allowed a run in his last 3 starts. Dempster was on the disabled list with a minor injury, but I don't expect his pitching form to be any different in this one. The Cubs' offense has struggled all season, especially with left handed pitchers. Jon Niese is a solid lefty who pitches well at home. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this matchup. Eddings has consistently been the best under umpire in baseball in the last several years. The under is 6-0-1 in Dempster's last 7 against the NL East. The under is 36-13-3 in Eddings last 52 Sunday games. Take the under big.
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07-07-12 | San Francisco: Vogelsong v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 104 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Ryan Vogelsong has been my favorite under pitcher this year. The oddsmakers continue to underrate Vogelsong. He was snubbed from the All-Star team, and I think that gives him extra motivation to pitch well in this one. James McDonald has been consistently good for the Pirates this season. Neither of these teams hit the ball very well, and with two highly underrated pitchers going, I see a lot of value on the under. The under is 14-3 in Vogelsong's last 17 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
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07-07-12 | Colorado: J Francis v. Washington: G Gonzalez OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Most of the nation is red hot right now with record temperatures. Washington D.C. is right in the middle of the heat. Game time temperature is expected to be 104 degrees in this one with the wind blowing out about 10 miles per hour. The weather here should help the ball fly extremely well Saturday afternoon. Jeff Francis was unsigned at the beginning of the season, and I think he is very hittable. Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year, but he has been a little shaky in his last two outings. Both offenses are hitting the ball extremely well right now. The total here is set at just 8.5, so I like the value on the over.
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07-06-12 | Seattle: K Millwood v. Oakland: T Milone UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Oakland Athletics have the worst team batting average in the majors at a miserable .225. Kevin Millwood has a solid 3.19 ERA on the road this year. Seattle's offense isn't much better. The Mariners have the second worst batting average in baseball at .229. Tom Milone has been absolutely amazing at home this year. Milone is 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA at home in 2012. In his last 3 starts, Milone has a 0.86 ERA. Milone shut out the Mariners two weeks ago in Seattle. The under is 6-0 in Milone's last 6 starts against the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 home games. The under is 7-0 in the A's last 7 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 against a team with a losing record. Expect a very low scoring game. Take the under.
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07-06-12 | Minnesota: F Liriano v. Texas: M Perez OVER 10 | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Minnesota Twins offense has really come to life of late. Minnesota is averaging 5.02 runs per game against lefties. The Twins pounded out 15 hits and managed only 3 runs Thursday. Expect them to cash in more times in this one (it isn't often you see a team have 3 runners thrown out at home in one game as the Twins did Thursday). Texas has punished left-handers for the past couple years. Francisco Liriano isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and I think that will be extremely evident in Arlington Friday night. The heat and the tough lineup he will face should be too much. Look for both teams to score quite a few here. Take the over.
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07-05-12 | Baltimore: J Arrieta v. LA Anaheim: G Richards OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Angels offense has woken up in a big way over the last few weeks. Mike Trout may be the best leadoff man in baseball already, and he makes a huge difference for this offense. Albert Pujols is hitting like everyone expected him to, and Mark Trumbo is having a breakout season. Jake Arrieta has been blown up on multiple occasions already this year. Arrieta has a 5.81 ERA on the season. Garrett Richards has been good this year, but his 1.50 WHIP tells me he is playing with fire. The Orioles have a pretty good offense, and this total is set low. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 against the AL East. The over is 8-1-1 in the Angels last 10. The over is 8-1 in the Orioles last 9 vs. the AL West. Take the over.
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07-05-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The St. Louis Cardinals have the best offense in the National League. Freidrich may end up being a good pitcher, but it seems he isn't quite ready just yet. He has a 1.59 WHIP and I think the Cardinals will take advantage of their scoring chances here. Lance Lynn was great earlier this year, but he has a brutal 9.98 ERA in his last 3 starts. Lynn was pitching over his head earlier this year, and the Rockies offense is pretty good. The weather (97 degrees and a slight wind out to center) should help quite a bit. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.
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07-04-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeremy Guthrie has been terrible as a starter this year. Guthrie has an ERA of 13.50 in his last three starts. The Cardinals have the best offense in the National League. Adam Wainwright has a 5.40 ERA at home this year, and he seems to be struggling to recover from his elbow surgery last year. The Rockies have an offense that is fully capable of piling up the runs in bunches. The weather here will be very favorable to the over. A game time temperature of 100 degrees with low humidity should be great for the ball to be flying well. The over is 8-1 in the Rockies last 9 against the NL Central. The over is 5-1-1 in Guthrie's last 7 starts. Take the over.
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07-03-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is on fire right now. With Jon Jay back in the lineup and a healthy Matt Holiday smashing the ball, the Cardinals are piling up the runs on a consistent basis. In 5 of their last 10 games, the Cardinals have scored at least 8 runs. Jeff Francis is a guy I like to fade or play the over with. He has been bad in the past, and no team even wanted him at the beginning of the year. The Cardinals score more than 5 runs per game against lefties. On the other side, the Rockies can put up the runs as well. Joe Kelly doesn't go deep into the game, and Colorado should be able to get to him some. The over is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 against the NL Central. The over is 7-0-1 in the Cardinals last 7 with a total set at 9-10.5. Take the over.
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07-02-12 | Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Josh Outman starts in this one for the Rockies. Outman has an ERA well above 9 this season. St. Louis bats .271 against left-handed pitchers, and I expect them to get to Outman early in this matchup. Not only is Outman a poor starting pitcher right now, but he also doesn't go deep in the game at all. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in all of baseball. Colorado was shut out yesterday, but this is a team that generally scores quite a few runs, especially against left-handed pitchers. Kyle Lohse has been great this year, but he has struggled a bit in his last few starts. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5. The over is 4-0 in Outman's last 4 starts. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games with a total set at 9-10.5 runs. Take the over.
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07-02-12 | Kansas City: E Teaford v. Toronto: R Romero OVER 9.5 | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Total Error* Ricky Romero was terrific last season, but he hasn't been himself this year. Romero has a 4.94 ERA in 2012. Fortunately for him, the Blue Jays have been piling up runs when he is on the mound. He has managed to go 8-2 despite his poor ERA. Everett Teaford has only pitched 60 innings in his big league career, and most of those have been out of the bullpen. Both teams hit left handers pretty well. The over is 6-0 in Romero's last 6 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games. I believe the oddsmakers have given us a solid value in this one. Take the over.
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06-27-12 | Los Angeles: Billingsly v. San Francisco: T Lincecum OVER 7 | 0-3 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tim Lincecum has been an 'over' machine this year. The over is 8-2 in his last 10 starts. The oddsmakers continue to throw out low lines on his games despite the fact that he has an ERA above 6 this season. Chad Billingsley has an ERA above 5 in his last 3 starts. This ballpark is definitely a pitcher's park, but the ball does fly pretty well in day games. The over is 6-0 in Billingsley's last 6 starts following a loss by the team the night before. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 when facing a starter with a WHIP over 1.3. Take the over.
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06-27-12 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB TKO* Jarrod Parker is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Parker has completely shut down several teams already this year. The Seattle offense is one of the weakest in the American League, and I suspect Parker will pitch well against them. Kevin Millwood has been a bit inconsistent this year, but he has fared well against poor offenses. Oakland's team batting average is just 2.24 which is the worst mark in the majors. Two solid pitchers against two poor offenses makes me like the value of the under. Take the under.
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06-26-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* It's very rare for me to play a total this low, but I like this one so much I made it a rare 5 Star Top Play. Ryan Vogelsong has been money in the bank for 'under' bettors over the last couple years. The under is 29-10 in his last 39 starts. Clayton Kershaw has absolutely shut down the Giants in his young career. Both offenses struggle to score, and this has all the makings of a very low scoring game. The under is 20-3 in Vogelsong's last 23 home games. The under is 10-1 in Kershaw's last 11 Tuesday starts. The under is 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 against the Giants. Take the under big.
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06-26-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson v. Baltimore: B Matusz UNDER 8.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* C.J. Wilson has been terrific this year for the Angels. His consistency on the mound has really helped this team make the push they have over the last month or so. Wilson has a great 2.13 ERA on the road this season. Brian Matusz is a talented lefty for the Orioles who doesn't quite have it all together just yet. He has all the pitches, but he sometimes struggles with command. The under is still 11-1 in his last 12 starts. The under is 5-0 in Wilson's last 5 road starts. Take the under.
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06-24-12 | New York Yankees v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sunday Night Total Domination* R.A. Dickey has five straight outings where he hasn't allowed an earned run. It's pretty amazing how awesome of a run he is on right now. Dickey has thrown back-to-back one hitters. C.C. Sabathia has been his normal consistent self. Sabathia is 9-3 with a solid 3.55 ERA. The Mets don't hit left-handers well. Brian Runge is one of the best under umpires in the business. Runge's large strike zone should help this one a lot. The under is 9-1 in Dickey's last 10 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mets last 4 Sunday games. Take the under.
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06-24-12 | Chicago (N): M Garza v. Arizona: W Miley UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago Cubs offense hasn't been good at all this year. Both of these teams busted out with a big offensive game last night, but I think this pitching matchup will lead to a lower scoring game here. Matt Garza has had pretty good success in the past against Arizona. Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this year. Miley is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA so far this season. The under is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 Sunday games. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
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06-23-12 | New York Yankees v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees offense is one of the best in baseball. It isn't very often that you'll see a Yankees game with a total below 9 unless there is at least one ace on the mound. Ivan Nova and Chris Young are both very inconsistent pitchers. Nova has pitched well of late, but he gives up too many fly balls to be great all the time. Tim McClelland is one of the best 'over' umpires in baseball. He'll pinch the zone on both of these guys, and I think this total is set too low. Take the over here.
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06-23-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 11 | 4-8 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Doug Eddings is my single favorite 'under' umpire. Eddings has a huge strike zone, and every year he has more 'under' games than over. A total this high is extremely rare, and with Eddings behind the dish I see plenty of value. Delgado is a pitcher who walks a lot of people, but Eddings should help him. Morales doesn't normally start, but he is a capable pitcher. The under is 8-1-1 in Delgado's last 10 starts. The under is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 interleague starts. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-21-12 | Colorado: J Francis v. Philadelphia: V Worley OVER 9.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeff Francis starts this game for the Colorado Rockies. Francis didn't even have a job at the beginning of the year since no major league team wanted him, but the Rockies picked him up after the team badly needed some starting pitching. Francis has had an ERA around 5 for three straight years before this one. So far this year he has allowed 12 runs in two starts. The Phillies offense is better than most believe. Vance Worley is a solid pitcher, but the Rockies can pile up the runs. The weather should be great for scoring here with a 90 degree temperature and wind out to center. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 home games. The over is 13-3 in Francis' last 16 starts. The over is 6-1 in Worley's last 7 starts. Take the over.
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06-20-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jered Weaver will start this game after missing several starts with a lower back strain. Weaver has been virtually unhittable at home this year. In nearly 33 innings, Weaver has an amazing 0.83 ERA at home. Ryan Vogelsong has been underrated by the oddsmakers for a long time. The under is 28-10 in Vogelsong's last 38 starts overall. Vogelsong has 9 straight quality starts. The under is 21-7-1 in Weaver's last 29 starts against a team with a winning record. Look for both pitchers to pitch very well. Take the under.
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06-20-12 | Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 10 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate in this one. Miller is one of my favorite under umpires. Getting a number this high with Miller behind home plate is too much for me to pass up. The Cubs offense hasn't been good this season. Gavin Floyd has pitched poorly of late, but he has fared well against the Cubs in his career. Without any extremely warm temperatures or wind blowing out, I don't see why this total should be 10 in this game. I like the value on the under.
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06-20-12 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Yankees UNDER 9 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tommy Hanson and Phil Hughes are both pitching their best right now. Hanson has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Hughes started the season horribly, but he has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Braves offense has been in a major slump as of late. This day game after a night game will likely lead to some stars getting the day off. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6. The under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-19-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians played to a 10-9 final last night. I had the over in that one, and I think the over is the play again in this one. Both bullpens are completely spent right now, and I'm not very impressed with either of these starters. The exact same pitching matchup last week ended in a 12-5 Reds win. The Reds offense is on fire right now, and the Indians are very tough at home. Both pitchers are capable of giving up the big inning. The weather should help with hot temps and winds blowing out. The over is 5-1 in the Indians last 6 home games. Take the over.
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06-19-12 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Atlanta Braves offense has been hibernating of late. Atlanta has scored a total of two runs in their last three games. Hiroki Kuroda had a solid 3.43 ERA this year. Tim Hudson has allowed just 2 earned runs in his past 28 innings pitched. These two pitchers met last week and the final was 3-2. Neither of these pitchers give up many long balls. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 games. The under is 5-1 in Kuroda's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-18-12 | Seattle Mariners v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 102 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Seattle Mariners lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The Mariners hit just .234 and average 3.69 runs per game against left-handed pitching. Wade Miley has been one of the most surprising pitchers in all of baseball this year. Miley has a spectacular 2.39 ERA. He has a dazzling 0.57 ERA in his last three starts. Hector Noesi has been hit hard this year, but Arizona's offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late. The roof should be closed here, which makes Chase Field a pretty average stadium as far as runs per game. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. I think this total is set too high. Take the under here.
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06-18-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mat Latos hasn't been nearly as good as the Reds would have hoped so far in 2012. Latos has allowed 78 hits in 75 and 2/3 innings. He has a mediocre ERA of 4.64 this year. He gives up far too many long balls, and the weather conditions will be suitable for home runs Monday night. Derek Lowe started the year with an impressive run, but he has regressed in his last few starts. Lowe allows far too many base runners to be highly successful in the long run. He has a ridiculously high 1.53 WHIP. The Reds offense has been much better over the last month. Joey Votto is on fire and Brandon Phillips has been consistently great. The over is 4-1 in the Indians last 5 home games. The over is 4-1 in Latos' last 5 games as a favorite. Take the over.
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06-17-12 | Kansas City Royals v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Wainwright was a terrific pitcher a few years ago and they still may become great again, but he is struggling this year. Wainwright has an ERA above 5 at home this season. Luis Mendoza has a 4.89 ERA this season. He has struggled against the best offenses he has faced. The Cardinals are the highest scoring team in the National League. The weather should help here with 90 degree temperatures and wind blowing out to center field. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
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06-17-12 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Zack Greinke has been brilliant at home this year, but he hasn't pitched very well on the road. In fact, Greinke has an ERA slightly above 5 on the road in 2012. The Twins offense has been much better of late thanks to a healthy line up and big production from Trevor Plouffe. Nick Blackburn has an ERA far above 7 in 2012. Blackburn simply doesn't have good enough stuff to put away very many batters right now. The over is 10-1-2 in Greinke's last 13 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0-2 in the Twins last 9 interleague games as an underdog. Take the over.
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06-17-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slightly better than most people realize this year. They actually rank in the top ten in the majors in team batting average. Brett Cecil was terrible in Spring Training, and I'm not convinced he's figured out all his issues. Kyle Kendrick has been an 'over' machine in his career, especially on the road. The over is is 7-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts as a road underdog. The over is 23-5 in the Phillies last 28 road games. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over.
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06-16-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Kevin Millwood left his last start with a groin injury. He's expected to pitch in this one, but I don't think he'll be 100%. Tim Lincecum hasn't just been worse this year, he has been terrible. Lincecum has a ridiculous 7.98 road ERA. The Seattle lineup isn't good, but they have been hitting better of late. San Francisco has a better lineup this year with a healthy Posey and a Melky Cabrera crushing the ball in the middle of the order. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-1 in the Giants last 9 road games. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games. Take the over.
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06-16-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* A.J. Burnett had one horrible start earlier this year, but he has been great in the rest of his outings. Ubaldo Jimenez has a solid 3.38 ERA at home. The Pirates only average 3.27 runs per game against right handed pitching. I think Pittsburgh is the type of team that Jimenez can shut down at home. Both of these pitchers are better than the oddsmakers value them right now. The under is 5-1 in Burnett's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
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06-15-12 | Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. New York (N): D Gee OVER 8 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Cincinnati Reds offense started the season in a funk, but they are hitting the ball in a big way right now. Joey Votto is hitting the ball better than anyone in baseball right now. Brandon Phillips is healthy and swinging the bat extremely well. Dillon Gee has an ERA near 5 at home, and I think the Reds can get to him. Bronson Arroyo started the year well, but he has struggled of late. The over is 7-0-1 in Gee's last 8 home starts. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
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06-15-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9.5 | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies have proven they can hit even away from Coors Field, but they can't pitch well anywhere. Jeff Francis didn't make a major league roster coming out of camp this year, and he looked terrible in his first start. The Tigers offense hasn't been as good as expected, but I think they can hit Francis hard. Casey Crosby wasn't dominant in AAA, and he has had serious issues locating the strike zone in the majors. The over is 5-0 in Francis' last 5 starts. The over is 8-2 in the Rockies last 10 road games. The over is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8. Take the over.
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06-14-12 | Chicago White Sox v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Here we get two pitchers who are struggling with their command pretty badly. Gavin Floyd has a 7.88 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jake Westbrook has a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox average 5.05 runs per game against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals average 5.15 runs per game against right-handers. Both offenses struggled last night, but I think this is a completely different setup. Tim Tschida is one of the best 'over' umpires in the league because of his tiny strike zone, and that will help. The over is 5-0 in Floyd's last 5 starts. The over is 7-1 in Westbrook's last 8 starts. Take the over.
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06-14-12 | Oakland A's v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Oakland Athletics don't have much of an offense normally, but they are loving Coors Field. The conditions are great for an 'over' in the afternoon at Coors Field. Alex White and Jarrod Parker are both pitchers who could have a solid future in the league, but I expect them to struggle in this one. Parker gives up too many free passes, while White gives up the long ball too often. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's last 6 games. The over is 7-0-1 in Colorado's last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. Take the over.
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06-14-12 | New York Mets v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is struggling mightily right now. Tampa Bay hits just .222 against lefties, and they can't be very thrilled to see Johan Santana here. Santana had an off outing against the Yankees last time, but I expect a bounce back start here. Jeremy Hellickson is awesome at home. He has a 1.59 ERA at home this year. On get away day, the lineups may be slightly weaker than normal. The under is 7-0-2 in Hellickson's last 9 starts. The under is 19-3-2 in his last 24 home starts. Take the under here.
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06-13-12 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Luke Hochevar has been downright terrible at home this year. Hochevar has a 10.23 ERA at home in 2012. He has a 6.57 ERA overall this season. Randy Wolf has a 5.45 ERA, and he allows far too many hits and walks to be counted on. Wolf pitches into jams and I think Kansas City can make him pay. The over is 15-4-2 in Hochevar's last 21 starts following a game where he gave up 2 earned runs or less. He is the epitome of inconsistent. Both offenses are better than they have shown, and we have a nice over umpire here as well. Take the over.
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06-12-12 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 196 | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Finals Total Domination* The Miami Heat get a lot of press for their offensive prowess, but Miami is very capable of playing great defense. Miami has to realize that they don't want to make this a track meet with the Thunder. Miami should use some clock and try to rely on their half court defense to win the game. Oklahoma City is a much better defensive team than most people realize as well with Ibaka and Perkins down low. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total. The first game of the NBA Finals should bring some jitters. Take the under.
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06-12-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* Kyle Kendrick and Nick Blackburn are two pitchers I look to fade. They match up against each other here, and I really like the value on the over. Kendrick is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball. He had been on a good streak for a while, but last game he struggled quite a bit. Minnesota is hitting the ball surprisingly well right now. The Twins have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 games. Nick Blackburn has an ERA of 7.75 this year. The Phillies lineup hasn't been nearly as bad as most people believe. Philadelphia has the fourth best batting average in baseball, and they should get to Blackburn. The over is 8-0 in the Phillies last 8 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 19-3 in Kendrick's last 22 road starts against a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 Interleague home games. Take the over big!
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06-09-12 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 178.5 | 88-101 | Loss | -104 | 42 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Game 7 Total Domination* Miami dominated the Celtics in game 6, but I expect Boston to show some heart in this one. The Celtics are a very good defensive team. Miami is also capable of clamping down on the defensive end. In the NBA playoffs, history shows us that the later in the series we get, the lower scoring the games become. I don't expect that LeBron James to be able to replicate his game 6 performance. Since the 2003-2004 season, elimination games in game 6 or game 7 have gone under the total to the tune of 36-13. Take the under.
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06-09-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 6.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* I'm not a fan at all of taking an 'under' this low, but this still looks like a good value to me. Clayton Kershaw has been a bit "off" of his game so far this year, and his ERA is still a sparkling 2.55. Seattle's lineup isn't good at all, and I could easily see the Mariners only putting up a run or two. Jason Vargas has been terrific at home the last couple years. He has a 1.91 ERA at home so far this year. The Dodgers were no hit last night by the Mariners, and the Dodgers lineup simply isn't very good without Kemp in the middle of the order. The under is 7-0 in Vargas' last 7 home starts. Look for a very low scoring game. Take the under.
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06-09-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* There isn't a better hitters ballpark than Coors Field in Colorado. The weather conditions in this one should make it even easier on the hitters. The temperature is expected to be about 90 degrees with wind blowing out to center field at 12 miles per hour. Colorado really piles up the runs at home. Jeff Francis hasn't pitched in the Major Leagues this year. Francis had an ERA around 5 in his last few years in Colorado. I see no reason to believe he'll be any better now. The over is 7-0 in Francis' last 7 home starts. Over is 9-2-1 in the Rockies' last 12 against a right-handed pitcher. Take the over.
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06-08-12 | Cleveland Indians v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jake Westbrook started the season pitching brilliantly, but it has been all downhill of late. He has an ERA over 10 in his last three starts. Josh Tomlin is a mediocre pitcher with an ERA slightly above 5. The Cardinals have the best lineup in the National League, and I expect them to put up several runs here. The warm weather in St. Louis should help the ball fly further. The over is 10-2 in the Indians last 12 games. The over is 20-6 in the Cardinals last 26 home games. Take the over.
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06-08-12 | Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mat Latos was supposed to be a great pitcher for the Reds, but he is giving up far too many homerun balls. Latos has already allowed 10 homers at Great American Ballpark in 2012. The weather is expected to be warm for this one so the ball should travel well. Rick Porcello has been inconsistent all year, and he gives up quite a few long balls as well. Both offenses are capable of putting up a big number here. The over is 6-0-1 in the Reds last 7 home games. The over is 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 interleague starts. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. Take the over.
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06-08-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Baltimore Orioles took two of three from the Boston Red Sox at Fenway. The Phillies have lost six straight and they send Joe Blanton to the mound in this one. Blanton has allowed 25 runs in his last 4 starts. He has an ERA of about 5 in each of his last 3 seasons. The Orioles offense has been good all year, and I expect them to take advantage of Blanton's mistakes. The over is 19-7 in the Phillies last 26 road games. The over is 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 interleague starts. Take the over.
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06-07-12 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 179 | 98-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Heat/Celtics Total Domination* It's game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals. Boston wasn't expected to be in this position but the Celtics have a chance to close it out here. Over the past few years, a significant trend has stood out. Elimination games tend to be very low scoring because players are tight and the offense is more deliberate. I think this game will fit right into that theory. Miami must play better defense if they hope to force a game 7. Boston isn't a team that can push the pace consistently. Take the under.
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06-07-12 | Toronto: H Alvarez v. Chicago (A): J Peavy OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Toronto Blue Jays have taken the first two games of this series. Jake Peavy has been good this year, but he is looking a little shaky of late. Peavy has been hit hard in two of his last four starts. Toronto's offense is pretty strong. Henderson Alvarez has an ERA over 6 in his last three starts. Jim Reynolds is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business. The over is 12-3 in his last 15 games behind the plate. The over is 6-0-1 in Peavy's last 7 as a home favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in Toronto's last 8 road games. Take the over.
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06-07-12 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 | 7-3 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Tampa Bay's offense is very short-handed right now. Without Evan Longoria in the line up, the Rays can't hit left-handers much at all. C.C. Sabathia is one of the best left-handers in baseball. He seems to be getting stronger each start this year. Likewise, David Price has improved as the season has moved along. Price has been virtually unhittable of late. The under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay's last 5 games against a left-handed pitcher. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the under.
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