Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-07-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres offense is miserable. They have been the worst offense in the league this year, and it really hasn't been close. Kansas City's offense has been scuffling pretty badly of late as well. James Shields and Andrew Cashner are the aces of these two pitching staffs. With the last two games going extra innings, I expect these starters to be stretched out a bit here to save the bullpen and that should be a good thing with two extremely good starters like Shields and Cashner. Cashner is amazing at home, and Shields is a great strikeout pitcher against a Padres lineup that strikes out very often. The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 3 during game 3 of a series. The under is 7-0 in Cashner's last 7 with a total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 after the team scored 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 following a Padres loss. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. A 54-0 angle. Take the under. |
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05-06-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Chicago Cubs OVER 7 | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs will start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the last two years. He has a brutal 5.24 ERA so far in 2014. In his career, he has a 6.60 ERA against the White Sox. This White Sox lineup has been much better than expected and I expect them to get to Jackson early and often. At the same time, Hector Noesi has been plugged in as a spot starter for the White Sox. Noesi has been awful this year, and even a bad lineup like the Cubs should put up several on Noesi. The total here is set very low because the wind will be blowing in. With these two starters on the mound, I can't pass up a total set at 7 runs. Take the over. |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat UNDER 191.5 | 86-107 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Nets/Heat Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat do have a fairly difficult second round matchup in the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Miami to win the series, but the Nets might make it competitive. The Nets do a great job knowing how to slow down this Heat offense. Miami thrives on fastbreak easy opportunities, and Brooklyn does a good job slowing the game down and forcing the Heat to beat them in the halfcourt. Brooklyn slowed the pace down to 88.8 possessions when they played the Heat this year, which is nearly five possessions slower than Miami's average game played to during the season overall. The fact that this should be a slow paced game makes me like the under quite a bit here. The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 conference semifinals games. The under is 7-0 in the Nets last 7 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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05-06-14 | Houston Astros v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and the Houston Astros have the two worst bullpens in the majors this year. The Tigers have a bullpen ERA of 5.31. The Astros have a bullpen ERA of 5.74. I expect both bullpens to be in the game for several innings here, which makes me like this over. Brett Oberholtzer was only mediocre in the minors and the Tigers hit left-handed pitching very well. Look for him to struggle through this start. Robbie Ray makes his first major league start for the Tigers. Ray doesn't have dominating stuff, and I doubt he'll work deep into this game. There should be plenty of scoring chances in this one. Take the over. |
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05-05-14 | New York Yankees v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jered Weaver isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Weaver has lost a bunch of velocity and he doesn't have the same ability to strike out batters that he previously had. Even in the past, the Yankees lineup has torched him. Weaver has a brutal 5.93 ERA in 13 career starts against New York. David Phelps is a spot starter here for New York, and I'm not confident in his ability to come through for the Yankees. Phelps hasn't been good in the minors, and his past history in the majors is inconsistent at best. The Angels still score runs at home, and they have two elite hitters in Trout and Pujols. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in Phelps last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 when the opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Yankees. |
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05-05-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves OVER 7.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Aaron Harang isn't nearly as good of a pitcher as he has looked like early on this year. Harang had sparkling numbers before his last outing in which he gave up 9 earned runs. He still has a 2.97 ERA. This is a guy that didn't have a job until a few days before the season. Shelby Miller is regressing of late. Miller is walking far too many guys, and he has been wild inside the strike zone as well. Both of these offenses have been underperforming of late, but I think they'll have plenty of scoring chances in this one. A warm night in Atlanta with the wind blowing out helps a lot. Take the over. |
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05-04-14 | New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10 | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies and New York Mets will play Sunday afternoon in perfect conditions for scoring at Coors Field. The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph. The temperature will be in the mid 80's and the ball should be flying extremely well. Paul Schrieber is the umpire behind the dish here, and by my data he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tiny strike zone. He is hesitant to ring up hitters. Dillon Gee has been bad at Coors in the past. Chacin is in his first game back from a major injury. The over is 4-0-2 in the Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 overall. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as an underdog. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rockies last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Chacin's last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two at Coors Field. A 40-1 angle. Take the over. |
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05-04-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet early Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. The wind is expected to be gusting out to center field at 20 mph or so here. Day games at Yankee Stadium are very beneficial to hitters to start with, and this should be great conditions for runs. C.C. Sabathia isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and several Rays hitter have hit him very well in the past. Erik Bedard isn't a good pitcher at all at this point in his career, and this Yankees lineup is very good. New York punishes left-handed pitching. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with home winning record. The over is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 home starts vs. the Rays. A 19-0 angle. Take the over. |
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05-02-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 213.5 | 98-99 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Portland Blazers have a second shot to close out the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Portland was unable to do it on the road last game, and if they don't win here they'll have to go back to Houston for Game 7. The potential close out spots are great chances to back the under in general. Defenses play harder and teams generally slow things down a bit. Last game stayed under at 206 and I cashed in there. I expect this one to stay below 210 as well. Great chance to play the under in a game that means a ton to both teams. Lots of pressure on both the Blazers and Rockets. Take the under. |
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05-02-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Ubaldo Jimenez has had some real trouble early in the year for his new team in Baltimore. Jimenez is a streaky pitcher, and until he turns it around I won't trust him at all. Ricky Nolasco is considered an ace for the Twins, which tells you how bad this pitching staff is. Nolasco has an ugly 6.67 ERA this year. Jimenez has an ERA of 6.59. Two pitchers that can't be trusted against two good lineups. The Twins offense is much better than expected, and the Orioles now have Machado back which helps a lot. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 road games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. right-handed pitching. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in the Twins last 5 home games set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 during game one of a series. A 41-1 angle. Take the over. |
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05-02-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 199.5 | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Dallas Mavericks are now fighting to stay alive. They are back at home in Dallas for Game 6. Dallas has proven they are a tough matchup for the Spurs in this series. The Spurs have had trouble getting any separation in this series. This is a potential closeout game and I like playing the under in these spots. Better defense and a slower tempo should be expected for a game that means this much to both teams. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the last game. The under is 5-0 in Dallas' last 5 when their opponent scores 100 or more in the last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when Dallas gives up 100 points or more. A 15-0 angle here. Take the under. |
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05-02-14 | Oakland A's v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 | 1-7 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dan Straily and Clay Buchholz are both off to a shaky start to the season in 2014. Straily has been bad against good offenses, and now that Boston has gotten healthy again I consider them a good offense. Buchholz has been bad against everyone so far this year. Buchholz also has a miserable 7.90 ERA in six career starts against Oakland. The A's lineup is better than most believe. This game has the potential to see some very big innings. The over is 5-0 in the A's last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in Straily's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 9 to 10.5. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 3-0-1 in Boston's last 4 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 5 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 when the Red Sox opponent gives up 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the Red Sox score 5 runs or more in their last game. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. |
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05-02-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 191 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total Value* There is some extra value on the under in this game because Game 5 was so high scoring. The shooting percentages in Game 5 were just ridiculously high, and I don't expect to see that in a potential close out game in Brooklyn. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo, and they are both fully capable of bogging down on offense for long stretches of time. Closeout games are great chances to back the under, and last game boosted the value nicely. Take the under. |
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05-01-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185 | 104-84 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to close out this series on Thursday night. Memphis knows the way they have the best chance to win in this series is by slowing the game down and making it a defensive battle. Tony Allen has been tremendous on Kevin Durant in this series, and the Grizzlies have slowed the game down and entered it into the post constantly. Oklahoma City is an excellent defensive team as well. The shooting percentages have been terrible in this series, and that makes sense based on the types of shots they are getting. In a close out game with tons on the line, the tempo should slow down and the defense should get even tougher. The under is the value play here. Take the under. |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214 | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 43 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers have seen three of the first four games in this series go into overtime. The under would have cashed in on two of those games and the extra session pushed the game over. This is a potential close out game, and those are generally played at a slower pace with more defense because of how much the game means to both teams. The fact that overtimes have pushed these games so high on the final point total gives us value on the under here. You can't expect overtime, and if we don't get overtime here, I like our chances of cashing in the under. Take the under. |
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04-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 188 | 109-98 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Heat/Bobcats Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat are cruising to an easy first round playoff win over the Charlotte Bobcats. It certainly shouldn't be seen as any surprise that it has been so easy for the Heat. Charlotte fought hard and should be commended on their season this year, but the Bobcats are outclassed in every way in this series. One important thing to remember this time of the year is close out games are often lower scoring than the rest of the series. I expect Miami to finish off this series here, and that makes me like the under more. If the Heat get a big lead here, expect the scoring to slow down in a big way as it did in Game Three (32 points in the fourth quarter between the two teams combined). If Charlotte is going to put up a fight here, it will be on the defensive end. Both teams like to slow down the tempo of the game. The under is 5-0 in Charlotte's last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-1 in Charlotte's last 5 home games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under. |
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04-27-14 | Cleveland Indians v. San Francisco Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians meet on Sunday afternoon for the series finale here. This is clearly a pitcher's park, but in an afternoon game like this one it is certainly easier to hit a home run and get some more scoring than it is in late night games in the Bay Area. The Giants are averaging 4.29 runs per game this year, and this offense is definitely better than it was a year ago. Danny Salazar isn't hitting his spots, and the Giants have some professional hitters who should be able to make him pay for those mistakes. Ryan Vogelsong pitches for the Giants and he has a 7.71 ERA this season. The Indians offense should get to him early. The over is 5-0 in Salazar's last 5 as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. |
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04-25-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The weather conditions tomorrow night should be perfect for hitters. The temperature will be in the 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. You won't find better conditions than that. Hernandez is regressing the last couple years, and at this point I consider him one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Collmenter gives up far too many homers, and that isn't a good thing for his chances when the roof is open here. Both of these teams have offenses that are very capable of scoring several runs in this situation. Additionally, both bullpens are pretty weak so there will be chances late in the game too. The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies last 5 during game one of the series. The over is 4-0 in Collmenter's last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. |
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04-24-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 7-3 | Win | 111 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Kyle Kendrick starts for the Phillies here, and I've never been a fan of his. Kendrick can get blown up at any time, and he has been beaten up badly many times by this Dodgers team. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 22 and 2/3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. With Carl Crawford back and healthy, this Dodgers lineup is terrific. Dan Haren isn't a bad pitcher, but he's no longer a shutdown type of pitcher. The Phillies offense has several guys who have hit him well in the past. Mike DiMuro is a solid umpire to have behind the dish when playing an over. This number is set too low and we are getting plus money. Good value here. Take the over. |
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04-24-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox will play the final game of a four game series on Thursday afternoon. Jose Quintana will take the mound for Chicago, and he has been great against Detroit in his career thus far. Quintana has a 2.70 ERA in his four career starts against this very good Tigers lineup. Max Scherzer will start for the Tigers, and he was the best pitcher in the AL last year. Scherzer is a strikeout pitcher, and the White Sox have a lot of free swingers. Dan Iassogna is behind the plate here, and I rate him as a decent under umpire which helps. In addition, this is getaway day for these teams and there may be some stars missing from the lineups. The under is 4-0 in Quintana's last 4 during game four of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Scherzer's last 6 starts as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals meet in a very early game on Thursday afternoon. This one gets underway just after noon eastern time. This is a classic getaway day spot for both teams. Cleveland leaves for San Francisco after this game and the Royals leave for Baltimore. Cool weather and a breeze blowing in from center field should help as well. Bruce Chen was great against the Indians last year, and he has an ERA of 2.7 at Cleveland in his career. Kluber has been shaky early in the year, but he is up and coming pitcher with a high upside. Expect several key players to be missing from the lineups here. The under is 5-0-1 in the Royals last 6 games as a +110 to +150 road underdog. The under is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in home plate umpire Greg Gibson's last 5 games behind the plate. The under is 4-1 in Chen's last 5 starts in Cleveland. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. |
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04-23-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago White Sox lead the majors in runs scored this year. Chicago's offense has received a major boost from newcomers like Abreu and Simien. I'm not sure they can keep up this kind of production, but I do expect the White Sox to hit left-handers well this year with their right-hander heavy offense. Detroit's Drew Smyly has had trouble getting the White Sox out in the past, and this White Sox offense is clearly better than last year's version. Andre Rienzo has been no better than mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to expect him to be a good big leaguer. The Tigers offense will score a lot of runs this year. This total is set too low. Take the over. |
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04-23-14 | Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Harang has been brilliant so far this year for the Braves. Harang is a big reason why the Braves are at the top of the division this year. He was signed late after the team lost several pitchers to injuries. He has performed far better than any Braves fan could have ever hoped. Harang pitched a no-hitter through seven innings last time out. He faces a weak Miami lineup in this one. Nate Eovaldi has an ERA just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. Eovaldi is a young starter who I believe will turn into a very good pitcher in the next couple years. It's getaway day here and with the early start I expect some top hitters to get the day off here. The under is 7-0-1 in Eovaldi's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in Atlanta's last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts in Atlanta. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 starts against Atlanta overall. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-21-14 | San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers have been the biggest surprise in baseball so far this year. Their pitching staff has proven to be much better than most expected. Wily Peralta showed glimpses of brilliance late last year, and his season has started very well this year. Peralta is getting a lot of ground ball outs, and he is controlling his pitches much better than he has in the past. Andrew Cashner is a true budding superstar on the mound for the Padres. He has been absolutely dealing of late. This is a guy who is capable of shutting down any lineup he faces. He one-hit the Tigers in a CG shutout earlier this year. The under is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 Monday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 when the team's opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 games during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his lats 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 60-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-20-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Rick Porcello has been awful against the Los Angeles Angels in his career. How bad has he been? Porcello has an ugly 8.34 ERA in more than 45 innings against the Angels. In such a large sample size, that's about as bad as you'll see. The Angels offense is a bit hobbled right now, but I expect them to have success against Porcello. Hector Santiago hasn't proven himself as a big league starter, and I expect him to have a tough time (as many pitchers will this year) against a very good Detroit Tigers lineup. The over is 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 starts against the Angels. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 following a game where they scored 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in the Angels last 5 during game three of a series. A 24-1 angle. Take the over. |
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04-18-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have had a lot of spirited battles in the past couple years. Most of those games have been great pitchers contests. These two teams don't score many runs when they get together. Chris Tillman has an impressive 2.37 ERA at Fenway Park in his career. Tillman will face a Red Sox lineup that has really struggled so far this year, and they definitely miss Shane Victorino. John Lackey has been great against Baltimore as well. Lackey has turned his career around once again in the past couple years. It will be a cold night with the wind blowing in at Fenway, which should help keep the ball in the yard. The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 following a day off. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Tillman's last 6 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts following an Orioles loss in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 6-0-1 in Boston's last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The under is 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 starts at Fenway. A 61-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-18-14 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5 | 5-11 | Win | 111 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* The Tampa Bay Rays have absolutely torched Hiroki Kuroda in his career. Kuroda has a dreadful ERA of 7.36 in his career against the Rays. Tampa Bay seems to have his number. Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling of late, but I think they'll get to Kuroda again here. New York piled up 10 runs last night. The Yankees are going to score a bunch of runs this year, and I think last night was a sign of things to come. Erik Bedard is way past his prime and this Yankees lineup is built to hit lefties well. I can't imagine him having too much success against this lineup. Joe West is a good umpire to have behind the dish with his small strike zone. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 games behind the plate. The over is 4-1 in Kuroda's 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Take the over. |
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04-18-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals meet in a game with two pitching stars Friday night. I love to back both Michael Wacha and Gio Gonzalez, but instead of picking a winner here I'm going to play the under. The Nationals are on quite an under streak of late, which I believe has given us some value on the under. Wacha nearly threw a no-hitter against the Nationals last year, and Gonzalez has a career ERA of just above 1 against the Cardinals. This St. Louis lineup is very good, but their weakness seems to be elite lefties and Gonzalez is definitely elite. At home, Gonzalez is often nearly unhittable. Both bullpens are deep and I see this one being a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. |
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04-16-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants offense has surprised a lot of people so far this year. Angel Pagan is getting on at the top of the order and setting the table for guys like Sandoval and Posey. Brandon Belt is stepping up in a big way as well. The Dodgers lineup is one of the best in the National League, and they'll score plenty of runs this year. Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 8.7 in his last three starts against the Dodgers. Vogelsong was torched through the spring and has been really bad in his regular season starts as well. It seems he either has something wrong medically or his confidence is completely gone. I expect the Dodgers to hit him well again Wednesday night. Paul Maholm isn't a guy I trust, and the Giants have hit left-handed pitching well of late. The Giants should get their runs as well in this one. The over is 10-1-2 in the Giants last 13 Wednesday games. The over is 10-1 in the Giants last 11 as a favorite. The over is 20-4-2 in Vogelsong's last 26 starts as a favorite. A 40-4 angle here. Take the over. |
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04-15-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants offense has started the season on fire. The Giants struggled offensively all year in 2013, but this lineup has been much better. Michael Morse gives the team a nice boost, and Brandon Belt has been much more consistent of late. They'll be up against Josh Beckett in this one. Beckett hasn't been an elite pitcher in the last couple years, and I expect the Giants to put up several runs. Tim Lincecum starts for San Francisco here. He has pitched poorly in both starts this year despite facing the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks. Lincecum isn't even close to the caliber of pitcher he was a few seasons ago. His velocity is way down, and that's a major problem. The Dodgers lineup has been very good this year. Both of these pitchers are past their prime. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a righty. The over is 5-0 in Beckett's last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. |
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04-15-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have what I believe is the best lineup in the National League right now. Everyone in this lineup can hit the ball. Marco Estrada has been pitching well so far this year, but Estrada's history against the Cardinals has been terrible. In 47 innings, Estrada has a 5.74 ERA against the Cardinals in his career. Milwaukee's offense has been superb this year, and Shelby Miller has totally lost his confidence and command on the mound. Miller has a 4.7 ERA on the road in his career, and he has been pitching very poorly of late. I don't expect him to turn it around in this one against a good Brewers lineup. Take the over in this one. |
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04-13-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks will battle at Chase Field Sunday afternoon. The roof is expected to be open, and that is huge for this total. With the roof open and the hot and dry weather conditions, the ball really travels well. It is expected to be 88 degrees with the wind blowing out at 15 miles per hour for this one. Those are perfect conditions for some long balls and lots of runs. Dan Haren is only a mediocre pitcher at this stage in his career, and Trevor Cahill has struggled badly with the roof open at Chase Field in the past. The Dodgers certainly have a lineup that can make him pay. The over is 8-1 in Arizona's last 9 games following a loss. Take the over.
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04-12-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers have a very good lineup, and the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup is much better than they have shown thus far this season. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, and it is scheduled to be open in this one. The ball flies extremely well with the dry heat this time of the year. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph here as well, which will help in a big way. Wade Miley and Zack Greinke are capable of giving up the long ball, and they have both struggled here in the past with the roof open. This total is a good value at just 8 runs. Take the over.
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04-11-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB TOP Play DOMINATOR* Chris Sale has been able to shut down most teams, but the Cleveland Indians have actually had quite a bit of success against him. Sale has a poor 4.71 ERA in his career against the Tribe. In four starts against Cleveland last year, Sale allowed 22 runs in 23 innings of work.
Carlos Carrasco has an ERA above 5 in his major league career. He hasn't been consistent at all, and the White Sox do have some guys who can make you pay for mistake pitches. Abreu is looking like a very good find for the White Sox. Chicago has some pop, and they have hit Carrasco well in the past. Carrasco has an ERA of 6.75 against the White Sox in 32 career innings pitched against them. This total is set very low, and it gives us lots of value on the over. The over is 9-0 in the Indians last 9 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The over is 8-0 in the Indians last 8 as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The over is 4-0 in Carrasco's last 4 starts on grass. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game two of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 5-0 in the White Sox last 5 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. A 44-0 angle. Take the over big! |
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04-11-14 | New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 192 | 108-100 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The games that matter more in the NBA late in the season are the ones where I look to take the under. The Knicks obviously need this game badly for their playoff hopes. Toronto is also fighting hard to try to secure the third spot in the Eastern Conference. Both teams should be highly motivated in this game. Toronto ranks 23rd out out of 30 teams in the NBA in terms of pace. New York ranks 29th in the NBA in terms of pace, so both teams will be walking it up the court. Since this game matters to both teams, I expect the defenses to be working harder than normal here. Look for this game to stay in the 180's. Take the under.
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04-10-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants have been hitting the ball surprisingly well so far this year. The Giants have been getting quality contributions from guys like Brandon Belt and Michael Morse. Morse fits well into this lineup, and he provides Buster Posey with some protection. Arizona's offense broke out last night against Tim Lincecum. Ryan Vogelsong hasn't looked sharp at all this year. He had a 9.00 ERA in the spring, and he labored through his first regular season start. Randall Delgado was torched at Colorado last week, and he had an ERA above 5 in the spring.
The over is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 home games. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 games as a favorite. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 with a total set at 7-8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in Delgado's last 5 starts on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Delgado's last 4 starts as an underdog. The over is 6-0-1 in Delgado's last 7 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. A 43-0 angle. Take the over. |
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04-09-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners both have pretty good lineups. I think both lineups are in a favorable matchup vs. the opposing starting pitcher here. Garrett Richards is a decent pitcher, but he hasn't shown the consistency necessary to trust him. Seattle's offense is red hot right now, and the Mariners lineup is much improved from last year. Elias is a pitcher who hadn't pitched above Double A before his start last week against Oakland. He'll face a better lineup this time, and I think Elias will end up showing he has been rushed too much to the majors.
The over is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The over is 6-0-1 in the Angels last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 head to head meetings between these teams. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. |
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04-08-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees OVER 8.5 | 14-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles lineup is better than they have shown early this year. The New York Yankees lineup is the same way. Both of these teams are going to score more runs on average than they have so far this season. This gives us some value here on a game where we'd usually see a total of 9 or 9.5 with these starting pitchers. Day games at Yankee Stadium are good for high scoring contests, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 to 20 mph. Nova and Chen have both been shaky in Spring Training and in their first start. The over is 7-1 in Nova's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 17-2 angle. Take the over.
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04-07-14 | Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Scott Kazmir starts for the Oakland Athletics in this one. Kazmir had a brilliant first start to the season, and he has been awesome against the Twins in the past. How good? In 31 innings pitched against Minnesota last year Kazmir had an excellent 1.45 ERA. In two starts at Minnesota, he had a sparkling 0.75 ERA. Kevin Correia had a solid 3.3 ERA in home games last year, and the Athletics don't have a terrific offense. Both of these teams have a very good bullpen. I think this sets up well for an under play. The under is 6-1 in Correia's last 7 home starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a home underdog. Take the under.
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04-06-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Braves will start Alex Wood in this one, and Wood is a future star. Wood was terrific all through the minors. His only issue is his control, and that will be helped in a big way in this one by the fact that the home plate umpire is Doug Eddings. Eddings is the single best under umpire in the business because of his huge strike zone. He will give Wood some questionable strikes here. Taylor Jordan looked good in the spring and this Braves lineup isn't terribly strong from top to bottom. Both bullpens here are excellent. The under is 5-0 in Wood's last 5 following a quality start in the previous outing. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts after the team scores 5 runs or more. The under is 7-1 in his last 8 starts overall. A 16-1 angle. Take the under.
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 42 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Final 4 Total DOMINATION* The Kentucky Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers square off in a highly anticipated Final Four showdown this weekend in Dallas. This game is being played at the Dallas Cowboys stadium so this is definitely a tough shooting backdrop. We normally see lower scoring games in this kind of arena, because shooters just aren't used to this type of sight at a normal basketball arena. Wisconsin knows they can't run with Kentucky because the Wildcats have a major athleticism advantage. Look for the Badgers to slow this game down much more than most people expect. The Badgers are a sound team who should make it tough on Kentucky to get a bunch of easy buckets in the paint as they have gotten in recent weeks. Wisconsin's offense is good, but Kentucky's length should bother them. This total is set a little bit too high. Take the under.
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04-05-14 | Boston Celtics v. Detroit Pistons OVER 205 | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play of the Month* The Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons both have nothing to play for at this point in the season. Boston started the season working hard on defense, but they have totally packed it in and started playing zero defense of late. Detroit hasn't played defense all year. The Pistons do have plenty of scorers on their team and against another bad team like the Celtics, Detroit is capable of putting up a lot of points. The last two games between these two teams finished at 213 and 229 points. Late in the season it's quite common to see games between two teams that have nothing to play for be very high scoring because that means no effort on the defensive end. This game fits that theory about as well as any game you'll ever see. Look for a bunch of points in this one.
The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The over is 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 following a loss of 10 points or more. The over is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the over big! |
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04-05-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles have hit Rick Porcello well in the past. Porcello has an ERA above 5 against the Orioles in his career. Porcello was torched in Spring Training as well. He had an ERA of 7.85 this spring. The Orioles do have some big bats in their lineup, and they are very capable of scoring runs in bunches. Detroit's lineup is tremendous and Bud Norris will have his hands full in this one. Detroit put up 10 runs yesterday. The wind will be blowing out at 15-20 mph in this one, and that is a big deal here too. This total is set awfully low for two good offenses and two shaky pitchers.
The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 2-0-2 in the Tigers last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 Saturday starts. The over is 7-1-2 in the Tigers last 10 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. A 24-1 angle. Take the over. |
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04-04-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 204.5 | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets meet in a game that means absolutely nothing to the Pistons and not too much to the Nets. That generally means higher scoring and less defense. Detroit's defense has been non-existent in recent weeks, and the Nets offense has been firing on all cylinders of late. Don't be surprised if Brooklyn hangs 110 or 115 points on the Pistons in this one. Detroit will play fast and get up plenty of shots as well.
The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 14-2 in the Nets last 16 Friday games. The over is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 following one day of rest. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two in Brooklyn. A 34-4 angle. Take the over. |
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04-04-14 | Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers have one of the best lineups in baseball. What pitcher would want to see a lineup with Choo, Andrus, Fielder, and Beltre in the first four spots? Jake Odrizzi is a decent young pitcher, but I expect him to struggle here. The Rangers lineup is going to put up a bunch of runs this season. Tampa Bay's offense is mediocre, but they'll be going against Joe Saunders. Saunders is a guy I like to fade, because I don't trust him. The price is too high to back the Rays here for me, but I'll play the over because I expect Tampa Bay to get to Saunders quite a bit here. Saunders was torched in Spring Training.
The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 games on turf. The over is 3-0-1 4 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. The over is 5-1-1 in the Rays last 7 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. A 12-1 angle. Take the over. |
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04-03-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Seattle Mariners are showing off their much improved offense early this year. They aren't going to lead the league in runs scored or anything crazy, but this offense is clearly much better. Cano is a huge boost in the middle of the order, and Justin Smoak is finally realizing his potential. Seager and Ackley are also quality hitters in this lineup. Jesse Chavez hasn't started in the past, and I don't believe he can shut this lineup down. Seattle will start rookie Roenis Elias who hasn't pitched in a game above the Double A level in his career. He's clearly come too far too fast, and I expect that to show in this one. The Athletics lineup isn't power packed, but they are fundamentally sound hitters who will work the count and force him to make mistakes.
The over is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in the Athletics last 4 home games vs. a left handed starter. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 27-0 angle here. Take the over. |
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04-03-14 | Washington Nationals v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets are going to have trouble scoring runs this year. They put up a single run last night against the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals send out another elite pitcher here in Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann is a quality start machine, and now that he is completely healthy (unlike last year) I expect him to be even better than he has been in the past. Zach Wheeler starts here for the Mets, and he is trending upward pretty quickly. He has all the stuff to a very good pitcher for a long time.
The under is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 games with the total set at 7-8.5 runs. The under is 7-1 in the Mets last 8 games. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. |
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04-02-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB TOP Play Total* The Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers lit it up for 24 runs in the first game of the series. Last night's game saw just 5 runs cross the plate. With Kyle Kendrick and Robbie Ross on the mound in this one, I expect this game to be another high scoring affair. Kendrick isn't a good pitcher, and he hasn't pitched in Texas before. This is a hitter's ballpark, and Kendrick gives up the long ball far too often. The wind is expected to be pushing the ball out to center field in this one, and that's perfect conditions for lots of runs based on past data from games played in this park. The Phillies still have some hitting stars, and Ross has to prove himself before I trust him in this park. Marvin Hudson is the umpire here, and he definitely has a small strike zone that will help the hitters.
The over is 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 games behind the plate. The over is 7-0-1 in the Rangers last 8 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 as an underdog of +150 or higher. A 20-0 angle here. Take the over big! |
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04-01-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Atlanta Braves 2-0 on Opening day. Atlanta and Milwaukee both have good pitching staffs and terrific bullpens. I was surprised to see this total at 8 runs. Alex Wood has been amazing in Spring Training this year, and Wood is an up and coming star for the Braves staff. Kyle Lohse just keeps churning out quality starts for the Brewers, and this Braves offense is weak at the bottom of the order. Lohse pitched a complete game shutout in his only appearance against the Braves last year.
The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 3-0-1 in Lohse's last 4 with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-01-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins OVER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Colorado Rockies have a good lineup. If you have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the middle of the order, you are going to put up quite a few runs over the course of the season. Last night they were shut down by Jose Fernandez, who is an amazing young pitcher. Fernandez is going to shut down a ton of lineups this year. Nate Eovaldi is a huge step down from Fernandez, and I expect the Rockies offense to take advantage. Miami's offense is much improved this year, and Brett Anderson has been inconsistent in the Spring. This total is set too low at just 7 runs, so this is a value play. Take the over.
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03-31-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7 | 3-5 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* There are lots of factors that go into totals bets in Major League Baseball. One of them absolutely has to be the weather. The weather report in this one is a huge key. The wind is expected to be blowing in from right center field in Chicago at 20-25 mph during this game. This is normally a friendly park for home run hitters, but that shouldn't be the case on Monday. Chris Sale is very capable of mowing down the Twins below par lineup. Ricky Nolasco is a rare pitcher who has pitched better on the road than at home throughout his career in the big leagues. This number is low for a reason. Look for the offenses to have trouble getting started in this one. Take the under.
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03-31-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates square off in an early start on Opening Day Monday afternoon. Jeff Samardzija goes for the Cubs and Francisco Liriano for the Pirates. Samardzija is a better pitcher than his statistics indicate from last year. He pitched with some bad luck in 2013. He has been exceptional against the Pirates in his career. He carries an amazing 0.73 ERA into this one in 9 career outings at PNC Park. Francisco Liriano has been outstanding for the Pirates, and he pitches very well at PNC Park. Neither of these lineups are very strong.
The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 starts as an underdog. It is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on grass. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7-8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 7-8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts at Pittsburgh. The under is 3-0-1 in the Cubs last 4 Monday games. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-30-14 | Connecticut v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5 | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 35 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Elite 8 Total DOMINATION* The UConn Huskies aren't going to want to get into a fast paced game with the Michigan State Spartans. Kevin Ollie's UConn Huskies have been winning with their strong defense down the stretch. Michigan State beat Virginia on Friday, but they struggled offensively against a strong defense. UConn is in the top 15 in the nation in total defense. Michigan State's defense has been very good of late as well. This total is set pretty high, especially considering this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is a tough arena for shooters. I like the value here. Take the under.
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03-28-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 197.5 | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Cleveland Cavs are very short handed right now. Kyrie Irving is out of the lineup and CJ Miles is questionable for this one. Anthony Bennett is also out of the lineup. Andrei Kirilenko is unlikely to play in this one for the Nets, so they are without a key player as well. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow pace to start with, and without so many key offensive weapons I can't imagine this team gets to be high scoring.
The under is 4-0 in the Cavs last 4 Friday games. The under is 3-0 in their last 3 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 13-3 in their last 16 following a win. A 20-3 angle. Take the under. |
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03-28-14 | Connecticut v. Iowa State UNDER 147 | 81-76 | Loss | -108 | 115 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Iowa State Cyclones really like to get out and run, and they'll try to do that here. UConn would much prefer to slow the game down though, and UConn's defense has been exceptional over the past few weeks. The Huskies have been shutting down great offenses on a consistent basis. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York City, which is one of the toughest arenas in the country for shooters. This game obviously means a bunch to both teams, and that typically slows the pace of play a bit too. Take the under here.
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03-27-14 | Dayton v. Stanford OVER 133 | 82-72 | Win | 100 | 91 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Dayton Flyers upset Ohio State and Syracuse to get to the Sweet 16. Dayton is fully capable of playing fast or playing slow, but I think this game is played at a much faster pace than their first two games because of their opponent. Stanford prefers to play at a quick pace when they can, and the Cardinal have shot the ball horribly in the first two games. Stanford likely shoots it a little better here. In Powell and Randle, the Cardinal have two elite scorers who can put the ball in the hoop consistently. Dayton hasn't seen many teams this year with that kind of offensive talent. This total is set too low. Take the over.
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03-26-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz UNDER 184.5 | 91-87 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies play slower than any other team in the NBA. The Grizzlies weren't all that impressive on defense earlier this year, but they have been a top three defense in the league over the past month. Memphis often holds bad offenses to 85 points or less. Utah isn't efficient at all, and they play at a very similar slow pace. A slow tempo and a dominating defense from the Grizzlies should keep this one low scoring. The last contest between these two finished at 182 points. I had the line here at 181 points.
The under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in Utah's last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Utah. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-26-14 | Yale v. Columbia UNDER 127.5 | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* Yale and Columbia will meet for the third time this year, and the first two meetings were both very slow paced games with the defenses playing well. Why would the third be any different. The first meeting finished at 128 points, but that was with 80 free throw attempts(which is just ridiculous). It's hard to imagine the teams getting to that kind of number again. The second game stayed well under the total. I made the total here 122 points. Look for a defensive game here. Take the under.
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03-23-14 | Baylor v. Creighton UNDER 144.5 | Top | 85-55 | Win | 100 | 45 h 39 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Creighton Blue Jays can shoot the ball very well, but they actually don't play nearly as fast as most people believe. Creighton slowed the game down quite a bit against Lafayette in their first game. Baylor is a team that works hard to slow the game down and win with their inside presence. This total is set extremely high as if this were a matchup between two teams that both run. In reality, both of these teams have been slowing the games down a lot of late. I lined this game at 139 points. The under is 20-7-1 in Creighton's last 28 non-conference games. Playing on a neutral floor hurts the shooting percentages for both teams a bit. If Creighton isn't hitting a very high percentage of three's, I think this stays well under. Take the under big here!
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03-23-14 | Stephen Austin v. UCLA UNDER 144.5 | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks know how to control the pace of the game. They slowed down an ultra fast VCU team. I lost on the under in that game solely because of the VCU foul on a 3 pointer with 3 seconds left that put it in overtime, but I'm taking the under again with SF Austin here. They have to know they can't get into a running match with UCLA. Tulsa and UCLA played at a surprisingly slow pace Friday night, and SF Austin will slow it down far more than Tulsa did. I lined this game at 140 points. The under is 5-0 in UCLA's last 5 non-conference games. The under is 5-1 in SF Austin's last 6 following a win. Take the under.
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03-23-14 | North Carolina v. Iowa State OVER 159 | 83-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The North Carolina Tar Heels love to play fast all the time. Iowa State is a team that played faster than anyone else in the Big 12, and the Cyclones aren't about to slow down now. Niang being injured certainly hurts the Cyclones, but they still have Kane and Ejim to fill it up here. This game has track meet written all over it. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Marcus Paige is really coming into his own for North Carolina and that makes them a dangerous team. The over is 4-0 in UNC's last 4 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 5-1 in Iowa State's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 following a win. A 13-2 angle. Take the over.
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03-23-14 | Washington Wizards v. Denver Nuggets OVER 215.5 | 102-105 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Denver Nuggets are pushing the pace as much as any team in the NBA right now. This Nuggets team is capable of putting up a bunch of points on a mediocre defense like Washington. The Wizards have their fair share of guys who are capable of lighting it up as well. The number here is likely too low because of a low scoring meeting between these two teams back in December that influences bettors more than it should. These teams are totally different now. The over is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The over is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in their last 9 on one day of rest. A 16-1 angle. Take the over.
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03-23-14 | Kentucky v. Wichita State UNDER 135 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Kentucky/Wichita State Total DOMINATION* The Kentucky Wildcats have slowed things down in a big way over the past month. Coach Calipari decided to mix in the zone defense, and the offense has become much more deliberate in an attempt to take better shots. Wichita State's offense is good, but it's their defense that is elite. The Shockers should be highly motivated here and Kentucky will have a tough time getting up quality shots. Kentucky's defense has gotten much better in recent weeks. Expect a defensive battle. The under is 9-1 in Kentucky's last 10 Sunday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. A 15-2 angle. Take the under.
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03-22-14 | Harvard v. Michigan State UNDER 137 | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Harvard Crimson didn't just get to this point by being a Cinderella or a lucky team. Harvard is a good team who is very well-coached. Expect the Crimson to know their best chance of winning this game is slowing the game down. Michigan State has a very good defense, and Harvard will struggle to get up open shots. Harvard's defense is underrated. The Spartans shot the ball remarkably well in their first game of the tournament, and you have to assume they will come back to earth a bit here. I had this one lined at 133 points. Expect a slower pace and some solid defense.
The under is 5-0 in Harvard's last 5 non-conference games. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral site games. The under is 4-1 in the Spartans last 5 NCAA Tournament games. A 13-2 angle. Take the under. |
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03-22-14 | Dayton v. Syracuse UNDER 127.5 | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Dayton Flyers defense looked impressive against Ohio State on Thursday afternoon. Syracuse is a terrific defense, but the Orange have trouble on the offensive end. I don't think there will be much of a flow to this game. Syracuse's tempo is much much slower this year than they have been in recent years, and games generally slow down a little more as the tournament moves along because of the importance of the game. The zone defense should bother Dayton. Look for both defenses to rise to the occasion here. Take the under.
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03-21-14 | Tulsa v. UCLA OVER 146 | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Tulsa Hurricane have really taken a significant step forward this year with Danny Manning leading the way as their head coach. Tulsa has picked up the tempo this year, and Manning has made it quite clear that he doesn't want to change the way they play here. Tulsa will look to run. The problem for them is UCLA is great in a fast paced game, and the Bruins offense could really pile up the points quickly in this one. Look for both teams to get up tons of shots in this one. The over is 4-0 in UCLA's last 4 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
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03-21-14 | Stephen Austin v. VCU UNDER 139 | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Stephen F Austin is a well-coached veteran team that should know that they can't get into an up and down type of game with VCU. Shaka Smart's team isn't very good on offense in the halfcourt, so they really rely heavily on forcing turnovers with their full court pressure. Stephen F Austin is relatively good at taking care of the ball. VCU is missing their best three-point shooter for this one, and that could hurt this team quite a bit since they don't shoot it well to start with.
The under is 5-0 in SF Austin's last 5 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 NCAA Tournament games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-21-14 | Cal Poly SLO v. Wichita State UNDER 126 | 37-64 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Bookie CRUSHER* The Cal Poly Mustangs looked great offensively Wednesday against Texas Southern. They won't look very good offensively Friday against Wichita State. The Shockers are a terrific team that excels on the defensive end. Wichita State doesn't mind playing slowly, and Cal Poly wants to stall as much as possible here. The Mustangs play as slow as anyone in the nation. It won't surprise me if Cal Poly struggles to reach 50 points here. Wichita State jumps ahead and coasts late in the game. Take the under here.
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03-21-14 | Eastern Kentucky v. Kansas OVER 146 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 114 h 25 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Kansas Wildcats have been capable of scoring a bunch of points all year, but they are playing even faster without Joel Embiid in the lineup. They are also a much worse defense without Embiid. Eastern Kentucky is shooting 56% on two-point shots this year, and they should get their points in this one. Expect an up and down affair with both teams preferring to run. The over is 5-1 in Eastern Kentucky's last 6 neutral site games. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. I had this one lined at 156 points. *Note- The line has moved up quickly here. I would play this one as high as 153 but no higher. Thank you.
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03-21-14 | UL-Lafayette v. Creighton OVER 156 | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns love to run and gun and try to outscore their opponent. That plays right into the hands of a team like Creighton. Creighton is built to put up points in a hurry, and they can shoot it from long range better than any other team in the nation. No one on this Lafayette team will be able to stop Doug McDermott. Creighton could put up 90 points or more here and it wouldn't be a surprise. Creighton's defense isn't particularly good and Lafayette will get up plenty of shots. I like this one to get over the total. Take the over.
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03-20-14 | Manhattan v. Louisville OVER 142.5 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 48 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Manhattan Jaspers are a team I like quite a bit. Unfortunately for them they drew a red hot Louisville team that is massively underseeded. Manhattan likes to use full court pressure and speed up the game, and they won't change their style here. Louisville will certainly be happy to run and press as well. This should be a fun game to watch thanks to the pace and all the up and down action. Even without good shooting numbers, I think this game gets over the total. I had this one lined at 148 points. The over is 6-0 in Louisville's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 14-3 in their last 17 neutral site games. Take the over big!
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03-20-14 | NC State v. St. Louis OVER 131.5 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The NC State Wolfpack surprised a lot of people (including me), by winning against Xavier on Tuesday night. NC State has a star in TJ Warren on their roster, and he is going to get his points no matter who this team goes up against. St. Louis is playing a much faster paced game than they did last year. The Billikens are still a very good defense, but their tempo has changed in a big way. I think this line is too low since St. Louis will look to run when given the opportunity. I had this one lined at 135 points. Take the over.
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03-19-14 | Pacific v. Grand Canyon OVER 150.5 | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total* The Pacific Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Pacific is able to score though, and they like to push the tempo. Pacific fouls a bunch and Grand Canyon is near the top of the charts in getting to the line. Expect tons of free points in this one. Grand Canyon wants to play fast and they'll get their chance to run like crazy in this one. Neither team will slow this game down. I had this total lined at 155 points. Take the over.
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03-19-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets OVER 219 | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons have sped up their pace in a big way late in the season. They have had one of the worst defenses in the league all year, but now that they are running and gunning they have had some extremely high scoring games this year. Denver is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league in the past month. The Nuggets are capable of putting up 125 points by themselves here, and their defense certainly isn't very good either. There were 235 points in the last meeting between these two teams. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver. The over is 7-1 in Denver's last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. A 19-2 angle. Take the over.
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03-19-14 | Cal-Irvine v. SMU UNDER 126 | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 57 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The UC Irvine Anteaters made me more money this year than any other team in college basketball. Most of that money was made playing the 'under' in nearly every game of theirs. Irvine's defense is great with N'Diaye protecting the rim. Irvine also likes to slow the game down. SMU's defense is very underrated, and they prefer a slow tempo as well. Two good defenses here and it should be a slow paced game. I had this lined at 122 points.
The under is 10-1 in Irvine's last 11 non-conference games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in SMU's last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. A 23-1 angle. Take the under. |
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03-19-14 | Toledo v. Southern Mississippi OVER 144 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 11 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Total* The Toledo Rockets have a very efficient offense, but their defense is terrible. Southern Miss has typically slowed the game down, but late this season they started playing a little faster. Southern Miss is great at getting to the free throw line, and Toledo fouls quite a bit. The Golden Eagles offense is good to start with, and they should look great against a very bad Toledo defense. Two extremely good offenses here, and this should be a shootout.
The over is 5-0 in Toledo's last 5 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 6-1 in Southern Miss' last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. A 15-1 angle. Take the over big! |
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03-19-14 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 195.5 | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Pacers/Knicks Total* The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks meet at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night. The Knicks offense has come alive of late, lighting up the scoreboard in five straight games. I don't think they'll have that same kind of offensive success against the best defense in the NBA. Indiana is highly unlikely to allow the Knicks to get as many open shots as their recent opponents. The Knicks have lit up Minnesota, Philly, Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland, and Utah. None of those are good defenses at all. This line is inflated due to the Knicks recent offensive success. How inflated? The last time these two met the total was 184 points. An overreaction here. Take the under.
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03-19-14 | Morehead St. v. Illinois State OVER 142.5 | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Track Meet Total* The Morehead State Eagles and Illinois State Redbirds both like to run and push the tempo. They both had to play some teams inside their conferences that worked hard to slow them down, but that won't be a problem here. When these two fast paced teams get together, it should be a real track meet. Both of these teams foul a lot, so I expect trips to the charity stripe to help us out a lot in this game. I had this game lined at 147 points. Take the over.
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03-19-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 196 | 102-94 | Push | 0 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls are the second best defensive team in the NBA. They are also the third worst offense in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers are the worst team in the NBA in terms of efficiency by a mile. Two bad offenses and a team that controls the tempo (Chicago) should mean this one stays lower scoring than expected. The 76ers have scored just 77 and 90 points in their last two games. They only scored 78 in their last game against Chicago. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. A 12-0 angle. Take the under.
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03-18-14 | High Point v. Minnesota OVER 133.5 | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Minnesota Golden Gophers were a decent Big Ten team, which means they should be able to blow away High Point if they are ready for this game. High Point likes to slow the game down, but I expect them to get down big early and be forced to speed up if they want to have any chance of winning. These smaller postseason tourneys generally have higher scoring games than expected. I had this one lined at 138. Take the over here.
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03-18-14 | Columbia v. Valparaiso UNDER 129.5 | Top | 58-56 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Total* The Columbia Lions are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Columbia is going to play their style of basketball no matter who they are playing against. Valparaiso tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and their offense isn't good enough to pile up the points against a quality Columbia defense. This has the makings of a tight low scoring game that goes down to the wire. I had this one at 123 points.
The under is 7-0 in Columbia's last 7 following a double digit home loss. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 following an ATS loss. The under is 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-2 angle. Take the under big! |
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03-18-14 | Norfolk State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 127.5 | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Norfolk State Spartans and the Eastern Michigan Eagles are similar teams. Both of them aren't very good offensively, but they are both excellent on the defensive end. This could easily be a game where we see both teams shoot a very low percentage from the floor. Eastern Michigan has slowed their pace down late in the season, and that should help out here. The under is 7-0 in Norfolk State's last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. An 11-0 angle. Take the under.
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03-18-14 | Wright State v. East Carolina UNDER 134.5 | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under Radar Total* The Wright State Raiders had the best defense in the Horizon League and they love to slow the game down. East Carolina started out playing fast, but they slowed things down in a big way as the season was winding down. There has been good value on the under with them of late. This should be a slower paced game than most expect. Expect a close hard fought battle between two teams who win with their defense first. I had this one lined at 128 points. Take the under big!
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03-17-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 203 | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers definitely like to run, but they are also the least efficient offense in the NBA. Indiana has the top defense in the NBA. The Pacers could easily hold the 76ers to 75-80 points in this game. These two met last week and the game finished at 195 points despite the Pacers shooting 58.2% from the floor. The Pacers should get a big lead and then slow the game down because they don't care enough to keep piling on the points as much as they could.
The under is 6-0-1 in the 76ers last 7 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 8-1-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. An 18-1 angle. Take the under. |
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03-15-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 190 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Sacramento Kings were running and gunning as much as anyone for a while, but they have slowed their tempo down of late. The Chicago Bulls are the second slowest paced team in the league. They are also the second best defense in the league. The Bulls were embarrassed in Sacramento when they met last month. Sacramento won that game 99-70. The Bulls won't forget that, and I expect Chicago to come out playing some great defense in this one. This number is relatively high for a Chicago total. I had the game lined at 186 points.
The under is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of at least 60%. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 following a win of 10 points or more. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-15-14 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 126.5 | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The New Mexico Lobos and San Diego State Aztecs have one heck of a history of playing low scoring games against each other. The two meetings during the regular season this year finished at 102 points and 99 points. San Diego State will likely go zone at least part of this game again, and the Lobos looked lost against that last time around. This game means a lot to both teams, and I expect open shots to be tough to come by.
The under is 6-0 in the Lobos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 11-1 in their last 12 following a win. The under is 6-0 in SD State's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings. A 35-1 angle. Take the under. |
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03-15-14 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5 | 83-75 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Michigan State Spartans are great in March, and I expect them to be ready for this game. Wisconsin beat them 60-58 in the first meeting between these two. Both of these teams are defense-first. In a game that means a lot, I expect a slow tempo and lots of pressure defense that makes open shots hard to come by. Only one game between these two in the past 10 meetings has even gone above 125 points, and two of those games were overtime games. Defensive battle here.
The under is 4-0 in Michigan State's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. A 12-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-15-14 | George Washington v. VCU OVER 138.5 | 55-74 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total* The George Washington Colonials and VCU Rams met twice during the regular season and both games went over the posted total. George Washington's weakness is taking care of the ball, and VCU gets lots of easy buckets off their full court pressure against them. At the same time, VCU's halfcourt defense isn't very good so if George Washington is able to break the press they score quite efficiently. Both teams do quite a bit of fouling. I had this lined at 143 points.
The over is 5-0 in George Washington's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings. A 14-0 angle. Take the over. |
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03-15-14 | NC State v. Duke OVER 144 | 67-75 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB ACC Total* The NC State Wolfpack have gotten hot at the end of the year, and it is largely because T.J. Warren is absolutely on fire offensively. No one has had an answer for Warren of late. Duke's defense isn't very good, but the Blue Devils should score at will against NC State in this one. The first game between these two finished in a Duke 95-60 win. I had this game lined at 149 points. Look for this to coast past the total. Take the over.
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03-14-14 | CS-Northridge v. Long Beach State OVER 148 | 82-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* the Cal State Northridge Matadors have picked up the tempo in a big way at the end of the season. Their last 7 games have all played to a total of at least 158 points, which is pretty incredible. Long Beach State tends to play to the pace of their opponent. The 49ers are fully capable of lighting it up against this terrible Northridge defense. The most recent game between these two finished at 91-83. I had this one lined at 153 points.
The over cashed in their last meeting. The over is 6-0 in Northridge's last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 league games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. |
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03-14-14 | Baylor v. Texas UNDER 139 | 86-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baylor Bears are definitely playing better basketball of late. Baylor dug a big hole at Texas a couple weeks ago and almost came back and won. Texas shot a ridiculously high percentage from long range in that game. Expect this game to be played much slower with more normal shooting numbers. I had this game lined at 134 points. The under is 5-0-1 in Texas' last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 Big 12 games. A 14-0 angle here. Take the under.
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03-14-14 | Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 130.5 | 43-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Buffaloes have squeaked out two close games in the Pac-12 Tournament. They haven't been able to get to 60 points yet, and I sincerely doubt they'll get to 60 points in this game. Arizona's defense held them to 61 on their home floor recently. Arizona's defense held Utah to 39 points yesterday, and this game is being played on a neutral floor where shooting numbers are typically lower. The under is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 Friday games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 Friday games. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.
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03-14-14 | Iowa State v. Kansas OVER 155.5 | 94-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Big 12 Total* The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks will be getting out in transition early and often in this one. With Joel Embiid in the lineup, Kansas played slower and had a better defense, but the last meeting between these two still sailed past 160 points. The tempo should be very fast here, and I expect both teams to shoot a little better from the floor. I had this one at 161 points. Take the over.
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03-14-14 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 136.5 | 57-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total* The Wisconsin Badgers have played slightly faster this year than they have in the past, but I can't imagine them running and gunning in important tournament games. Minnesota is looking to slow the game down, and this game means a ton to the Gophers, who are firmly on the bubble. The under is 5-0 in Wisconsin's last 5 neutral site games. I made the line here 132 points. Take the under.
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03-14-14 | Northwestern State v. Stephen Austin UNDER 157.5 | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Total* The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks are a very good team. They are 29-2 on the year, and they are the best team in the Southland Conference. They win with strong defense, and they don't let their opponent force them into a fast paced game. Northwestern State is the fastest paced team in the nation, but they haven't been able to speed up Stephen F Austin in any of their meetings. The Lumberjacks know what they are good at, and they are great at sticking to the game plan. The last ten times these teams have met, the highest total was 138 points. That's 10 straight times they have played that under this number would have covered by at least 19 points. Take the under big here!
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03-13-14 | UC Riverside v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5 | 43-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The UC Irvine Anteaters have made me more money this year than any other team in the nation. UC Irvine unders have been golden all year because of their great defense and the way they control the tempo against teams who aren't as good as them. The two meetings in the regular season between these team stayed well under. I had this game at 125 points.
The under is 9-0 in Irvine's last 9 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0 in Irvine's last 4 following a win of 20 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-13-14 | Savannah State v. Norfolk State UNDER 128.5 | 47-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* Savannah State has a way of turning games into very ugly low scoring contests. This is a team that is about as bad as you'll see on offense, but they are the best in the league on defense. Norfolk State has slowed their tempo down in a big way from last year. The regular season meeting between these two went way under this total. I had this game lined at 124 points. Take the under.
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03-13-14 | Ohio v. Akron UNDER 131.5 | 77-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker ERROR Total* The Ohio Bobcats and Akron Zips have a long history of playing tight low scoring games against each other. Their two games this year were defensive battles, and I see no reason to believe anything different will happen here. Ohio and Akron are two of the best defenses in the league, and this game means a ton to both teams. In a game that means this much, the pace generally slows down even more. I had this game lined at 127 points. Take the under.
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03-13-14 | Rutgers v. Louisville OVER 144 | 31-92 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* In the regular season these teams met two times and both games sailed past this total. Louisville can score at will against Rutgers, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them score 90 points here. Rutgers is a very undisciplined team, but they'll get their shots up because of their very fast paced offense. Lots of easy buckets for the Cardinals and a fast tempo for this game. Take the over.
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03-13-14 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 148 | 70-77 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys and Kansas Jayhawks should put up a bunch of points without Joel Embiid on the floor for Kansas. Without him on the court, Kansas isn't particularly strong defensively. They also play even faster without him. Marcus Smart should get into the lane a bunch here. Wiggins should continue his recent hot stretch. I had this one at 154 points. Take the over in this contest.
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