Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-17-22 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Spenser Watkins gets the start at home against the New York Yankees in this one. Watkins is a guy with a lot of potential, but he is really struggling thus far in his young big league career. Watkins has a swinging strike rate of only 7.7%. He has 12 walks and 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. His xERA is in the 6th percentile of all pitchers. His average exit velocity allowed is in the 15th percentile. Watkins is giving up a lot of home runs. He also has a career ERA of 8.36 when pitching at home. Watkins is allowing opposing hitters to have a .449 wOBA at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Yankees offense has woke up in a big way of late. The Yankees have scored 49 runs in their last six games! They should get to Watkins in this one. The Orioles bullpen that was excellent early in the season has really struggled in the last few weeks as well. Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher, but he is due for a little regression. Taillon has a 2.93 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. The Orioles do have some power and this is a hitters park. The umpire here is Torres and he is an over umpire. His strikeout/walk ratio has been extremely low the last couple seasons. Take the over. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 209 | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 39 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team. It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end. Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots. Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation. Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet. Take the under. |
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05-14-22 | Mariners v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* George Kirby has been a top 25 or 30 prospect in all of baseball. Kirby has a fastball that runs up to 98 or 99 mph. He also has some of the best control you will ever see. His ability to put the ball right where he wants it and not walk hardly anyone has impressed scouts for years. Kirby should have a bright future in the majors. Chris Bassitt is an underrated starting pitcher. He has good command and does a good job limiting hard contact. His highest FIP in the last three years has been 3.59, so he is clearly an above average pitcher. The Mariners have been really struggling on offense of late. Mitch Haniger is a key cog for this offense, and without him they haven't looked good. Seattle has now scored 2 runs or less in seven of their last ten games. Adam Hamari is the home plate umpire here and he carries a high strikeout walk ratio consistently, and is a top ten under umpire in the majors. Take the under. |
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05-13-22 | Royals v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average. Kansas City also ranks second to last in the majors in ISO. The Royals haven't been able to string hits together very often this year. The Colorado Rockies offense is good at home as they always are, but they are shorthanded without Kris Bryant and this isn't an elite offense like it was a few years ago. Zack Greinke has a solid ERA of 4.01 at Coors Field in his career. Greinke isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still at worst an average starting pitcher. The Royals bullpen has major positive regression signs due to bad batted ball luck so far this season. Kyle Freeland has been solid all year, and he has learned how to pitch at Coors Field in recent seasons. Even at Coors, this is a high total for two offenses that are shorthanded and a game with two pretty good starting pitchers. Take the under. |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well. The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total. Take the under. |
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05-11-22 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have been an over machine of late. The over is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games. Their offense has been better, and their pitching staff is absolutely horrendous. Vladimir Gutierrez may be the worst pitcher on the Reds roster, and he is the starting pitcher here. Gutierrez has 17 walks and only 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. He has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.53 FIP. Gutierrez has really ugly numbers at Great American Ballpark in his career, and I don't see a reason to think he gets on track here. Adrian Houser has been decent so far this year, but he does have ugly numbers against this Reds lineup. Houser has allowed a .394 batting average and a .461 wOBA against this Cincinnati lineup. Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is a top five over umpire in the majors. Wegner consistently has a low strikeout/walk ratio. Take the over in this one. |
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05-10-22 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 6.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their last 15 games. The Detroit Tigers have been shut out in back to back games, and they haven't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. These two teams rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average this year. The A's are slightly better against lefties than righties, but they are still only 24th out of 30 teams in wOBA. Detroit is 29th out of 30 in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Tarik Skubal has tremendous control. Skubal is averaging just 1.01 walks per nine innings so far this year. He has a 3.04 ERA and a fantastic 2.21 FIP. Frankie Montas has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.29 FIP on the season. Montas has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last five starts. The wind is forecast to be blowing in at about 12 mph during this game. Take the under. |
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05-09-22 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Baseball is a streaky sport. Offenses can go on streaks or stay in slumps for a good while through the course of the season. In the last 14 days, Detroit ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. Oakland ranks dead last at 30th. The truth is these two offenses aren't good in general though, and that is especially true against right handed pitching. Where do they rank in the majors against right handed pitching so far this year? Detroit once again ranks 28th and Oakland is dead last at 30th. These two offenses are much better against lefties, but there are two right handed starters on the mound for this one. Paul Blackburn has had a very strong year so far this year. He does a good job throwing strikes and staying ahead of hitters. Blackburn also does a good job limiting home runs. Michael Pineda still has good stuff. He isn't terribly consistent, but the Oakland bats have scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last ten games. In this one- the wind is forecast to be blowing in from center field at about 12-15 mph during this game. A nice bonus. Take the under. |
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05-08-22 | A's v. Twins UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This Oakland A's offense is really bad. Oakland has a .197 batting average against right handed pitching this year. Oakland has scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last nine games. The A's are up against a solid right handed pitcher here in Chris Paddack. Paddack has a good 3.15 ERA this year and an amazing 1.93 FIP in his four starts. He isn't likely to be hit very much by this Oakland offense. He's always had elite control, and he is averaging less than one walk per nine innings this year. Daulton Jeffries is a middle of the road pitcher, but he has some upside. Also, the Minnesota Twins lineup is very injured right now. Carlos Correa is doubtful for this game. Byron Buxton left yesterday's game due to a minor injury and he is questionable at best for this game. Minnesota doesn't have much lineup depth overall. Take the under here. |
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05-07-22 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I was hoping to get a 7 on this total, but the string of unders in Major League Baseball this year has led to this one being at 6.5. I'm still going to recommend a smaller (regular 3 star rated play) play on this one. The splits here set up very nicely. Sean Manaea is a high quality lefty, and the Marlins have a .198 batting average against lefties so far this year. They are a bottom five offense in baseball against left handed pitching. San Diego has been really good against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is a quality right handed pitcher. Lopez has a 1.29 ERA and a stellar 2.06 FIP on the season. These two offenses are at a disadvantage against the starters, and the bullpens are above average as well. This game is played at a very pitcher-friendly park. Take the under. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number. Take the under here. |
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05-03-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 9-1 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alex Manoah in this one and he has been tremendous both so far this year and in his career in the first half of the season. Manoah has allowed just 4 runs in 25 innings pitched this year. He has a career 2.34 ERA in the first half of the season. Manoah has also been dominant when pitching at home so far in his young career. He has a 2.14 ERA and an amazing .155 batting average allowed at home. Jameson Taillon has been throwing the ball well for the Yankees so far this year. He has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.42 xFIP. Taillon has only walked two batters in his four starts so far this year. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire in this one, and Kulpa has been consistently one of the four or five best under umpires in baseball. He had a stunning 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year which was the second highest in all of baseball. He should help both pitchers in this game. Take the under here. |
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04-30-22 | Tigers v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Detroit has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This Tigers offense is struggling in a big way right now. Clayton Kershaw hasn't walked a batter so far this year. Kershaw has 23 strikeouts, and he carries an impressive 2.65 ERA with a fantastic 2.07 FIP. Kershaw is throwing a lot more sliders this year, and the results have been fantastic. The Dodgers offense is very good. There is no denying that fact. The Dodgers do rank 4th in wOBA against right handed pitching and 19th against lefties. They face a young lefty in Brieske here. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Every single year he ranks near the top or at the top in strikes called percentage as well as strikeouts/walks. He should help both pitchers in this one. Take the under. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here. Take the under. |
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04-27-22 | Cubs v. Braves OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs start Mark Leiter Jr. here. Leiter Jr. doesn't seem to have good enough stuff to be effective in the majors. He has struggled badly in the majors with his command every time he has been called up. Leiter has major problems with the long ball also- and that has been the case in quite a few of his years in the minors as well. He's the type of guy who can really give up big innings in a hurry. Charlie Morton is nearing the end of his career. Morton has had a great last few years, but there are quite a few signs that he is slowing down. His 6.32 ERA and 5.49 FIP this year are a really bad start. He looked good against the Reds (everyone has), but he has been in trouble early and often in his other two starts. Alfonso Marquez has some of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire in the last few seasons. He is clearly an over umpire, and he is at it again this year with a ridiculously low strikeout/walk ratio of 1.79. The Cubs are first in the majors in wOBA this year and the Braves are 10th. Two good offenses and a total that is set too low. Take the over. |
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04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Both Triston McKenzie and Patrick Sandoval have excellent stuff. They both have multiple strikeout pitches. They both have the same problem- they can struggle with walks sometimes. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. Miller is one of the two best under umpires in all of baseball. Year after year his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show how he is a great strike caller. Miller should help both of these youngsters by giving them the corners much more than the average umpire would. The Guardians offense isn't as good as their season numbers would suggest. They are due for regression in batted ball luck. The Angels do have several guys who are free swingers and McKenzie can take advantage of that. Take the under. |
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04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more. Take the under here. |
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04-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 6-1 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox both have top five offenses in baseball. Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays and he has been very shaky this year. In his two starts he has an 11.81 ERA and an 11.86 FIP. Berrios has walked five batters in 5.1 innings and he has allowed 3 home runs. Nick Pivetta has a 3.91 ERA in day games in his career, but his night game ERA is an ugly 5.93. He has a WHIP of 1.492 in night games. Pivetta has a 5.49 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway Park. He has an ERA of 9.53 and a FIP of 8.53 through two games. I think both starters have blowup potential here and with the total dropping to 9, I'm on the over. Take the over. |
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04-18-22 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 42 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here. Take the under. |
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04-17-22 | Cubs v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies lineup is a pretty good lineup, but they aren't exactly the mashing crew that they were a few years ago. The Chicago Cubs are the same way. These are middle of the road lineups with a posted total of 11 runs. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. Kulpa had an extremely high 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year. He ranks top 8 in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last four seasons overall. He's a solid under umpire. Austin Gomber has pitched in ten games at Coors Field in his career and he has a sparkling 2.03 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.956. That is likely to regress some, but he has done a great job in this hitter friendly park and seems to have somewhat of an edge. The weather here calls for a slight breeze blowing in from left field. Take the under. |
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04-17-22 | Giants v. Guardians UNDER 8 | 8-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The gametime temperature for this one at Progressive Field in Cleveland is expected to be 36 degrees with a 10 mph wind blowing straight in from center field. Cleveland is a ballpark that is changed by the winds and weather more than most people realize. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here on Sunday. Alex Wood is certainly an above average lefty. I don't think the Guardians lineup is very good in general, and I think they will be a little worse against left handed pitching. Aaron Civale does a good job limiting hard contact, and that should help quite a bit especially in these conditions. We have two bullpens who are clearly better than the average bullpen in the majors. Take the under here. |
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04-16-22 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have an underrated pitching staff. Miami is likely to have quite a few low scoring games this year, especially at home in a park where it is at least somewhat pitcher friendly. Philadelphia starts Ranger Suarez here, and though he had a disappointing first start to the season, there are a lot of very sharp pitching analysts who think he has a high upside. Suarez has multiple plus pitches and is capable of generating a lot of swings and misses. Trevor Rogers is a very good young lefty for the Marlins. Rogers had a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 14.0% last year, and he also doesn't allow much hard contact. Jeremie Rehak is the umpire at home plate here and his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk numbers show from the last few years show him as a very good under umpire. Take the under. |
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04-10-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Tanner Houck starts for the Boston Red Sox here. Houck was excellent last year with an 11.35 strikeout per nine inning rate. He has made several mechanical tweaks and has really shown his real potential. Many in the Red Sox organization expect him to have a breakout year this year. He is a former first round draft pick. Jordan Montgomery is often underrated. Montgomery does a good job inducing soft contact and that can really help him against quality lineups like Boston. Montgomery has a career 3.72 ERA against Boston. The Yankees bullpen is a top 3 bullpen in baseball. The Red Sox bullpen is a top ten bullpen in baseball. The conditions will be cold for this one and the ball shouldn't be carrying too well. Home plate umpire here is Tripp Gibson who is a top five under umpire in baseball. Both pitchers will be helped by his generous strike zone. Take the under here. |
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04-08-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have what might be the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Baltimore traded away their one really solid bullpen arm in Cole Sulser recently. I expect Baltimore's bullpen to be terrible this year. John Means should be a #3 or #4 starter, but on the Orioles he is the ace. Means is a decent pitcher, but the Rays have hit him hard. Means had a 5.40 ERA in five starts against the Rays last year. The Rays current lineup has a great .377 wOBA against Means. Tampa Bay starts the season with Wander Franco in the lineup and I think they can do damage here. Baltimore has some solid bats with Mountcastle, Mullins, Santander, and Mancini. The Orioles project as a team that will be much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Shane McClanahan is a pretty good pitcher, but he actually has worse numbers at home than on the road. The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay. Take the over. |
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04-03-22 | Mavs v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively. Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here. Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle. This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul. Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here. Take the under. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 134 | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* We've reached the Final Four. While there were many upsets along the way, we have a final four of all big name programs. Villanova takes on Kansas in the first game at the Superdome on Saturday evening. Villanova is without Justin Moore and that definitely hurts them quite a bit, but this is a really well coached Villanova team. Jay Wright knows his team has a better chance if they keep this game played in the halfcourt and slow the pace down as much as possible. Villanova has played six games in a row to a pace of 62 possessions or slower. Kansas has done a solid job not fouling down the stretch this season. Villanova shoots a ridiculous 83 percent from the line, and if Kansas can keep them off the line they have a much better chance of slowing the Wildcats down here. The Jayhawks have seen their last two games played to 127 and 126 points. They are usually a pretty high scoring team, but they have had several low games on neutral courts this year. This game is played at the Superdome in New Orleans. In the last 15 years, there have been 3 games played at the Superdome. Those three games were the Final 4 and Championship Games back in 2012. All 3 of those games went under the total. They all went under the closing total by at least 5 points. This is a huge stadium with tough sight lines. Take the under here. |
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03-30-22 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. Take the under here. |
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 136 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 117 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* This is an NIT Semifinal for Tuesday March 29. There is quite an impressive NIT Semifinal and Finals totals trend that stands out. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 NIT Semifinals and Finals round games with a total of 129 or higher. The under is 23-6 in games with a total of 135.5 or higher in this spot. The venue here is Madison Square Garden. It is absolutely one of the best under venues in college basketball. This is a massive arena with a tough shooting backdrop. Throw in the fact that in the early rounds of the NIT most teams care very little, but once they reach this stage they are going to slow down and give more effort on defense. Texas A&M actually hasn't had any of their 3 NIT games thus far go over 136 points. Washington State has seen two of their three games stay under. The other one only finished at 138 points. Both Washington State and Texas A&M are better on defense than offense. Washington State ranks 263rd in effective FG percentage offense and 39th in effective FG % defense. Texas A&M is 198th on offense and 65th on defense. Take the under here. |
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03-27-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well. Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. Take the under. |
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03-26-22 | Houston v. Villanova UNDER 129 | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats rank 345th in the country in overall tempo. The Houston Cougars rank 338th in the nation in tempo. These are two bottom 20 teams in the nation in pace of play. The pace here should be extremely slow with this one almost exclusively being played in the halfcourt. Houston slowed Arizona down and that game finished at only 62 possessions. Villanova hasn't had a game in the NCAA Tournament over 62 possessions. I think there is a good shot this game plays to 60 possessions or fewer based on how slow the teams play and the importance of the game. Villanova is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston relies heavily on offensive rebounds. Villanova ranks 80th in the country in second chance points allowed, which is better than Houston's first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 3rd in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars will likely make the post up offense and pick and roll offense Villanova runs tough sledding for the Wildcats here. Take the under here. |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas UNDER 142 | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are a really well coached team. Ed Cooley is willing to do whatever it takes to keep his teams in the game. They will mix in zone looks including 1-3-1 zone defense to trap and keep the opponent off guard. Providence is likely to do a lot of mixing up their defenses here against a good Kansas offense. I also expect Providence to look to slow the pace down. The Friars aren't likely to want a track meet type game here. Providence ranks 283rd in the country in overall tempo. Kansas has been excellent on 3 point defense. In the Big 12, Kansas' opponents shot less than 28% from 3 point range. Providence has shot it well from long range, but Shot Quality and other analytical sites believe they are due for regression. I think Providence could struggle to find open looks in this one. The under is 22-8-2 in the last 32 Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 or larger. The consensus line here is 7.5 right now. Take the under here. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are favored by 9 or 9.5 points in this one. Games with a spread of 7.5 points or more are 21-8-2 to the under in the Sweet 16. This game fits the system. The Arkansas Razorbacks offense has been inconsistent this year. Arkansas ranks only 237th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Razorbacks rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. They are 15th in FTA/FGA in the country. Gonzaga has always been good at defending without fouling though and this year is no different. The Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation in defensive FTA/FGA. Arkansas is just 30.5% from 3 point range this year, and I don't trust them to knock down jumpers here on a neutral court in San Francisco. Gonzaga's offense is really good. There isn't much bad to say about them. They can be hit or miss from 3 point range at times. Arkansas has a good shot blocker down low in Jaylin Williams. Look for Chet Holmgren's length inside to really bother the Arkansas frontcourt here. This is a 4 pm local time tipoff in a neutral venue, which is a positive for the under. I'll back the system and take the under here. Take the under. |
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03-23-22 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense. Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami. The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo. Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively. There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits. Take the under. |
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03-20-22 | Texas v. Purdue OVER 134 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers rank second in the country in offensive efficiency. Purdue was rolling on offense against Yale, but took their foot off the gas as many high seeds do with a large lead in the second half of the Round of 64 matchups. Purdue has two elite big men in Edey and Williams. Edey is particularly hard to matchup against. He is an offensive rebounding machine. Texas has had trouble with defensive rebounding all year. Expect it to be a major issue here. Jaden Ivey is one of the best offensive players in the country, and he should be a handful here too. Texas has improved in recent weeks on offense. The Longhorns are likely to have success in this game. As good as Purdue is on offense, the Boilermakers aren't very good defensively. Purdue is just 90th in the nation in defensive efficiency. A close game is expected here. Purdue gets to the line a bunch and Texas fouls a lot as well. A foul fest late or even overtime is a possibility. Take the over. |
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03-20-22 | Boston University v. NC-Greensboro UNDER 134 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans rank 350th out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way. UNC Greensboro has played a bunch of games to 60 possessions or less this year. Boston University is 274th in average possession length. The Terriers definitely prefer to play slowly as well. There should be no pace war in a game like this. This is a small postseason tournament and the total is adjusted upward for that. This game is played at a neutral site though and neutral site games have played to lower total in the long run than regular home sites. Neither team gets to the line very much and I believe it will take very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total. Take the under. |
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03-19-22 | Memphis v. Gonzaga OVER 154 | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs play at the single fastest pace in the country in terms of average possession length. Memphis will use a full court press and very aggressive defense to try to get points off turnovers. While Gonzaga hasn't been terrible about turning the ball over this year, they haven't faced teams who press in the WCC. Memphis ranks 9th in quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 110th in preventing those quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 4th in halfcourt defense and 139th in transition defense. Memphis will try to score in transition here. Memphis is certainly much better on offense with DeAndre Williams in the lineup now. The Tigers get a lot of second chance points and get to the line a lot. Gonzaga's offense is so balanced that I believe they can do damage against Memphis. The Tigers are also weak in transition defense (110th) and Gonzaga can take advantage of that weakness in a big way. The pace here should be extremely fast. Take the over. |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144.5 | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners have sped up their pace late in the season. UTEP is aggressive with their defense and they look for chances to get steals and score quickly in transition. Western Illinois has had recent problems taking care of the basketball and their transition defense ranks in the bottom 60 teams in the country. Western Illinois also is terrible at defending the 3 point line. UTEP takes a lot of long range jumpers. Western Illinois has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. UTEP has been back and forth on higher and lower scoring. This is a first round smaller postseason tournament, and these games have gone over at a better than 55% clip in the last decade. Take the over. |
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03-18-22 | TCU v. Seton Hall UNDER 129 | 69-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Seton Hall point guard, Bryce Aiken, is badly missed by the Seton Hall offense. Seton Hall will probably be playing at a slow pace since TCU is strong when it comes to dictating tempo. TCU ranks among the 50 slowest teams in average possession length. Seton Hall is still an elite defensive team. TCU isn't a good jump shooting team and they are reliant on getting a lot of second chance points. Over the course of the season, Seton Hall has been above average at preventing second chance opportunities. This total is set low, but I still believe it is a little too high. Look for the two offenses to struggle to get open looks. Take the under. |
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03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Duke UNDER 145.5 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
3* Play Under The Cal State Fullerton Titans had been unable to score against quality competition. Fullerton scored only 66 against Wyoming, and 56 against San Diego State. Duke has a huge size advantage in this game. Fullerton prefers to drive to the hoop, but Duke ranks top 30 in blocked shots and #2 in the county in defending without fouling. Duke has slowed down their tempo late in the season. A great long term angle on round of 64 totals has been betting the under when a highly seeded team is a large favorite. When the favorite is -8 or higher, the under has hit at better than 60% over the past 15 years. Take the under. |
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03-18-22 | Yale v. Purdue UNDER 144.5 | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 113 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers play the Yale Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament first round. High seeds favored by at least 6 points in round one of the NCAA Tournament have been great under bets when the total has been above 135. That system is above 60% in the last decade. This game fits this system. Yale isn't very good offensively, and they prefer to play slowly. The Bulldogs aren't likely to be able to expose Purdue's relative defensive weaknesses. Matt Painter's team has shown the willingness to slow down when they have a sizeable late lead. The Boilermakers are likely going to be playing from the lead throughout here. I'm trusting the system and expecting a pretty slow pace here as well. Take the under. |
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03-17-22 | Richmond v. Iowa OVER 150.5 | 67-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense is absolutely rolling right now. Keegan Murray is arguably the best offensive player in the country. Murray has been shooting lights out of late, and he is far from the only weapon this Hawkeyes team has on offense. Kris Murray is also playing really well and is breaking out on offense. Jordan Bohannon is an elite outside shooter. Iowa is averaging 1.215 points per possession on the year. That is only behind Gonzaga. Richmond ranks 315th in transition defense. The Spiders are terrible in transition defense, and Iowa is all about pushing the pace. They rank 20th in average possession length in the country. The Spiders aren't likely to have any answers. Grant Golden is a good player, but he is too slow and weak defensively to keep up with the Iowa frontcourt. Iowa is still only decent on defense. Richmond star guard Gilyard should give the Hawkeyes some trouble here. Golden is a good offensive big man who can pass it well and set up shooters. Iowa struggles to defend the 3 point line. Iowa is 3rd in the country in turnover percentage. Richmond is 9th. Don't expect many wasted possessions in this one. Richmond gave up 85 to Utah State and 86 to Maryland in the non-conference slate. Iowa should put up a big number here. I think Richmond scores enough too. Take the over. |
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03-17-22 | Norfolk State v. Baylor UNDER 137.5 | 49-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are the top seed in this region, and they'll play Norfolk State from the MEAC. Norfolk State has a long history of not scoring many points in games against high level competition. The MEAC is a very weak league, and when Norfolk State's offense has stepped up in class, the results haven't been good. Norfolk State scored just 48 on Xavier earlier this year. They scored only 58 against Wichita State. They scored just 54 against a weak New Mexico defense. Last year they made the NCAA Tournament and scored 54 points on Appalachian State and 55 on Gonzaga (they had just 39 with 5 minutes remaining in that one). They scored only 47 on a good UNC Greensboro defense early last year. I don't think Norfolk State is going to score much here. Baylor is a bit shorthanded here, but I think that hurts them more on offense than defense. The question is how many will Baylor score? Baylor is likely to be leading big in this one. The history of these high vs. low seed matchups is the better team lets their foot off the gas enough late in these games that the under has done very well in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this sets up as another game where that can happen. Take the under. |
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03-16-22 | Long Beach State v. BYU OVER 148.5 | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 54 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers push the pace to the extreme. Long Beach ranks 27th in the country in overall tempo. The 49ers defense is 256th in effective field goal percentage defense. They did look pretty good in Big West play defensively, but there are all kinds of really bad offenses in the Big West right now. BYU ranks 124th overall in tempo, so the Cougars are faster than the average team as well. The Cougars faced some really good defenses on the year. KenPom rates their slate of defenses faced 51st toughest in the country. BYU is up against a much weaker defense here in Long Beach State. Alex Barcello is the leader of a BYU team that shoots the ball really well from 3 point range. Long Beach State ranks 279th in the country in 3 point defense. BYU ranks 312th in transition defense this year, and Long Beach State gets out in transition early and often. The 49ers should have some success on fastbreaks here. They will use a lot of pressure defense and force turnovers that turn into quick breakaway opportunities. The over has been a good play early in these smaller postseason tournaments. Take the over here. |
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03-16-22 | Kent State v. Southern Utah OVER 140 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes go to Utah to take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. Southern Utah ranks 99th in tempo. They will look to push the pace throughout in this game. Kent State ranks 245th. Kent State and Southern Utah are both very good at getting to the line. There should be a lot of points from the charity stripe in this one. Additionally, both of these teams have struggled on the defensive glass. Second chance points should help us quite a bit here. In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one. Take the over. |
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03-16-22 | Morgan State v. Youngstown State OVER 149 | 65-70 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears are always going to push the pace. They don't know any other way. Morgan State ranks 14th in the country in pace of play. They are getting out in transition at a very high rate. Youngstown State ranks 224th in overall tempo. Youngstown State is 322nd in defensive efficiency in the country. The question with Morgan State is always whether they will make enough shots, but against this weak defense I do think they can score enough. The two offenses have massive advantages on the boards. Youngstown State ranks 73rd in second chance conversion percentage. The Morgan State defense ranks 279th. Morgan State's offense is 42nd in the nation in second chance conversions. Youngstown State's defense ranks 276th. In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one. Take the over. |
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03-16-22 | Bryant v. Wright State OVER 151.5 | 82-93 | Win | 100 | 71 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders rank 97th in overall tempo. There are a lot of teams in the Horizon League that don't like to play quickly, but Wright State gets their chance to run and gun here. Bryant ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Bulldogs have the leading scorer in the country in Peter Kiss. Both of these teams are excellent on the offensive glass. They both rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive rebounding as well. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities throughout this contest. The offenses are both better than the defenses in this one. Both teams go to the rim and to the line quite a bit. Neither team has a strong shot blocker. Expect a fast paced game here. Take the over here. |
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03-14-22 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 221.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game. Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders). This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings. Take the under. |
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03-13-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 148 | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Most people would likely guess Gonzaga had the best offense in the country this year. That would be wrong. Purdue ranks first in the country in offensive efficiency for the season. Who ranks second? The Iowa Hawkeyes. Here we have a matchup of the top two offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. In Big Ten play, the Iowa Hawkeyes actually ranks first in offensive efficiency, and Purdue ranks second. Iowa ranks 96th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Purdue ranks 102nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Neither of these teams are very good on that end of the floor. Both these teams shoot the ball really well from 3 point range and both defenses struggle defending long range jumpers. On the whole, I don't like betting conference tournament unders. This though is a court where scoring has been just fine. Also, the Big Ten Tournament finals have actually been more to the over in the last decade. These offenses are just too good. Take the over. |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana UNDER 150 | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is the Southland Conference Tournament Championship played in Katy, Texas on a neutral floor. The games on this neutral floor have been playing to a much slower pace and have been much lower scoring than the regular season games in the Southland. Both of these teams do play quickly, and the total should be set pretty high. I do think this total is a few points too high though considering the circumstances. The winner of this game will make the NCAA Tournament. Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower. Take the under. |
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03-12-22 | Akron v. Kent State UNDER 125.5 | 75-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and Akron Zips are bitter rivals. Kent State won two hard fought games between these two in the regular season. Those two games finished at 122 and 130 points combined. Shot Quality says based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished at 122 and 113 points. These are two good defensive teams and I think both teams will have a hard time finding open looks. This game is played at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse where the Cavs play. This is a large arena and the under is 36-26 in the last 62 MAC Tournament games played here. Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower. Take the under. |
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03-12-22 | Creighton v. Villanova UNDER 130 | 48-54 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Creighton just torched the nets against Providence last night. I don't think they will do it again here. They are without star guard Ryan Nembhard, and overall their offense has been clearly worse without him on the floor. Villanova plays at the 347th fastest tempo out of 358 teams. The Wildcats are very good offensively, but Creighton is the number one defense in the Big East in terms of efficiency. Both of these teams are elite at defending without fouling. Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower. Madison Square Garden postseason neutral site games have been great in the long run. This is a tough shooting backdrop in a huge arena. Another plus for the under. Take the under. |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence UNDER 133 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars and Creighton Blue Jays met recently and the final was 72-51. Creighton struggled against Ed Cooley's unique mix of man and zone defenses. The Blue Jays aren't the same offensive team without Ryan Nemhard. Creighton is much better than people realize on defense though. The Blue Jays are 17th in effective field goal percentage defense. Providence has had trouble shooting at Madison Square Garden in their last couple trips. They averaged 1 point per possession against a mediocre Butler defense yesterday. They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in their Big East Tournament loss to DePaul last year. Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace. Madison Square Garden has been one of the best under venues in college basketball for many years. The shooting backdrop is tough and this is a massive arena. The under has hit north of 58% in the postseason games here in the past decade. Take the under. |
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03-11-22 | Rider v. Monmouth UNDER 134.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met during the regular season twice. One of the games stayed far below this total. One of the games went above this total due to a late foul fest. Monmouth's defense has been excellent late in the season. The Hawks are really clamping down on the defensive end. They have also slowed their pace down quite a bit. Their game against Niagara was played to only 58 possessions yesterday. Rider has been inconsistent on offense this year. The Broncs have improved defensively a lot from last year. Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue in the MAAC Tournament the last few seasons. Take the under. |
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03-11-22 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 122.5 | 42-36 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have been one of the best under teams in the country this year. North Texas again went under the total yesterday thanks to their extremely slow pace and great defense. They slowed that game down so drastically against Rice that the game was just 53 possessions! That's one of the slowest paces of any game this year. The most recent game between North Texas and LA Tech was 56-49. Last year in the Conference USA Semifinals these two played a game that was 54-48. LA Tech played a 59-57 game against a much worse defense and faster paced team in W Kentucky yesterday. The Frisco Center at the Star has proven to be a tremendous under venue through the years. Take the under. |
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03-10-22 | Niagara v. Monmouth UNDER 128.5 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Monmouth Hawks take on the Niagara Eagles tonight in the MAAC Tournament. These teams played two regular season games. They were 106 points and then 122 points in regulation. These two teams rank 51st and 95th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Niagara ranks 204th in effective field goal percentage offense. Monmouth ranks 274th in effective field goal percentage offense. Boardwalk Hall has been an exceptional under venue. The unders that have cashed here have cashed by an average of more than 16 points. Take the under here. |
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03-10-22 | UTEP v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 136 | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have slowed down their pace a lot in the last couple months. MTSU was pushing the pace in the non conference slate, but they rank 11th out of 14 teams in Conference USA in tempo. Middle Tennessee has really been playing good defense in the conference slate. They rank third in defensive efficiency in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee has seen their last three games go far under this total. UTEP could only score 59 points the first time these two teams played. Outside of Souley Boum no one scored more than 8 points for the Miners. UTEP is very inconsistent on offense. The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side. Take the under. |
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03-10-22 | Sam Houston State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 125.5 | 66-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Grand Canyon and Sam Houston State played two very low scoring games in the regular season. Grand Canyon is an elite defense. The strength of their defense is defending the 3 point line. Sam Houston State takes a lot of 3's, but Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the country in 3 point defense. That plays into the hands of the Antelopes. Sam Houston State is a very good defense as well. The Bearkats force quite a few turnovers and Grand Canyon has turned it over quite a bit this year. That could lead to quite a few wasted possessions from Grand Canyon. This is on a neutral floor where scoring is usually down a bit on the average. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses in this matchup. Take the under here. |
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03-10-22 | Quinnipiac v. Siena UNDER 140.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints take on the Quinnipiac Bobcats on Thursday evening in the MAAC Tournament. Siena plays at a slow pace. The Saints rank 243rd in average possession length in the country. Quinnipiac does play quicker at 90th in the country in overall pace. Both of the regular season games between these two saw a late foul fest make the final total be much higher than it should have been. This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The under is 13-5 in MAAC Tournament games played there. The 5 games that have gone over the total here have only gone over by an average of 4.6 points per game. Many of the unders have gone far below the total. The shooting backdrop here at this large venue is clearly a problem. Take the under. |
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03-10-22 | Rice v. North Texas UNDER 128 | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green play at the slowest pace of any team in the country. They rank #358 out of 358 teams in terms of pace of play. North Texas is extremely well coached by Grant McCasland. The Mean Green are excellent defensively, and they do a great job of taking care of the basketball and winning low scoring games. They force teams to play their style of basketball. Rice was blown out by North Texas twice this year. The Owls scored 43 and 44 points in those contests. The Owls have slowed their pace of play down drastically in recent weeks. In conference action, N Texas was the slowest team in terms of average possession length, and Rice was the third slowest in Conference USA. The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side. Take the under. |
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03-10-22 | South Carolina State v. Morgan State UNDER 143.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears and the South Carolina State Bulldogs meet Thursday night in the MEAC Tournament. South Carolina State has improved immensely on the defensive end late in the season. Year over year their defensive improvement has been massive as well. This team was ranked #339 in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They sit at #158 this season. In 8 of South Carolina State's last 9 games the final total has been 142 points or less. Morgan State averaged 1.06 points per possession in the MEAC last year. They averaged only 0.978 points per possession league play this year. They take a lot of bad jump shots and that has pulled down their efficiency. Norfolk Scope Arena has been a good under venue. It has seen about 56% of games in the postseason go under the total. Take the under. |
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03-10-22 | Marquette v. Creighton UNDER 142.5 | 63-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles and Creighton Blue Jays played twice this year and the two games couldn't have been more different. The first game was played at a slow pace and went into double overtime and still finished at only 144 points (116 after regulation). The second game was a fast pace and 165 total points. Creighton is probably in the NCAA Tournament, but a bad performance here could leave them at least somewhat nervous on Selection Sunday. The Blue Jays would prefer this game be played at a slower pace, and I think they'll work hard to do that in this one. Creighton ranks first in the Big East in defensive efficiency, which likely would surprise a lot of people. Creighton is 9th in the country in 2 point FG percentage defense. They were first in the Big East. In their most recent matchup, Marquette went an insane 60.4% from 2 point range against them. Creighton allowed just 44.1% in the Big East overall. Marquette allowed only 46% on 2 point FG in Big East play, but in their most recent game Creighton shot a lights out 62.9% from 2 point range. I don't expect these shooting numbers to show up again. This is at Madison Square Garden where the under has been money over the long term. In fact, in postseason games the under sits at almost exactly 60% at MSG in the last 15 years. Take the under. |
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03-10-22 | Central Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 149 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Toledo is a great offensive team. The Rockets have put up a lot of points in quite a few MAC games this year. Central Michigan did slow them down at Toledo recently holding them to just 68 points. The two games between these two in the regular season were 136 and 134 points total. There is real blowout potential in this game, and in a conference tournament setting if you are up big many teams will slow things down and rest the legs a bit to be ready for the next day. This game is played at the Cleveland Cavs home arena. The under is 35-26 in games here for the MAC Conference Tournament. An early tipoff is another bonus in this one. Take the under. |
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03-09-22 | Fairfield v. St. Peter's UNDER 123.5 | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags and St. Peter's Peacocks meet tonight in the MAAC Tournament. These two teams have a long history of low scoring meetings. Here are the last 5 meetings with their combined total and then their expected total based on the quality of shots from Shot Quality in ( ): 112 points (115 points) 105 points (117 points) 105 points (111 points) 115 points (112 points) 99 points (No shot quality data available) 129 points (118 points) 98 points (116 points) The last six meetings have brought 5 games going under this total and 1 that went over. None of the games have a Shot Quality number higher than this total. This game is played at Boardwalk Hall which has been a great under venue. These two teams met here last year and the total was 99 points. Take the under. |
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03-09-22 | Old Dominion v. UTEP UNDER 129.5 | 64-74 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners rely heavily on steals and quick scores since their halfcourt offense isn't very good. Old Dominion doesn't turn the ball over very much at all. The Monarchs run a very conservative slow paced offensive attack. Old Dominion shot a whopping 47 free throws in the first meeting with UTEP. They rely heavily on free throws. We have seen the officiating crews in general call less fouls in these conference tournament games. ODU will get to the line plenty, but it should be way down from last game. The first game stayed under this number in regulation even with the massive amount of free throws. This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here. Take the under. |
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03-09-22 | Rice v. Charlotte UNDER 143.5 | 73-61 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Early in the season, Rice was playing at a top 75 tempo in the country. The Owls have slowed down their pace of play drastically late in the season. In the last few weeks, they are playing at a pace slower than the average tempo in the country. Charlotte was atrocious on defense earlier this year. They have been much better in recent weeks. The 49ers are coached by a defensive minded coach who wants the team to play slowly. The first game between these two was 67-64. This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here. Take the under. |
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03-09-22 | Butler v. Xavier UNDER 133 | 89-82 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Butler plays at the 338th fastest pace of any team in the country. They are always very slow paced. The Bulldogs settle for far too many 3 point jumpers, and they are shooting just 29.2% from 3 in the Big East Conference. Xavier ranks first in the Big East in defensive rebounding. Butler shouldn't get many second chances here. The Musketeers have relied pretty heavily on getting to the free throw line, but Butler is pretty good at defending without fouling. These two teams met last year in the first round of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. The final was 70-69 in overtime. At the end of regulation the score was 59-59. Madison Square Garden is a tremendous under venue in college sports. The under is a whopping 69-45 in postseason games at MSG when the total is set at 127.5 or higher. Take the under. |
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03-09-22 | Idaho v. CS Sacramento UNDER 143 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed below this posted total in regulation. The one finished at 145 with overtime. This game tips off at 9:30 am local time. That is an extremely early tipoff. Through the years, college games with very early tipoffs have trended under the total. There have been some worse shooting numbers in these games. Most teams in the Big Sky are all about playing quickly, but Sacramento State has done a good job slowing things down and dictating the tempo this year. An early start and two teams who are inconsistent on offense. Take the under. |
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03-08-22 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 142.5 | 77-52 | Win | 100 | 46 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have been better offensively this year, but John Dunne is a defensive-minded coach at heart. Marist is good at controlling the pace too, and they rank 222nd in the country in tempo. Quinnipiac likes to play fast, but they rely on the outside shot a lot and Dunne's teams defend beyond the arc well. Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total. Take the under. |
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03-08-22 | Southern Miss v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 141 | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a miserable team. UTSA isn't much better. Two terrible teams playing on a neutral floor in the postseason has been a great under angle in the long run. Southern Miss ranks about average in tempo. UTSA ranks slightly faster than average. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in offensive efficiency. They also both rank in the bottom 100 in the country in getting to the free throw line. There will be a lot of mid range and long range jumpers taken in this game. This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances. Take the under. |
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03-08-22 | Canisius v. Fairfield UNDER 134 | 50-72 | Win | 100 | 44 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags rank last in the MAAC in overall tempo. Fairfield will slow the pace down in this win or go home game against the Canisius Golden Griffins. Fairfield hasn't had a game in their last 5 go over this totals number. Four of the five were 129 or lower. They have been much better defensively at the end of the season. They have also slowed down the tempo even more late in the season. While Canisius prefers to play quickly, they were slowed down in both meetings against Fairfield. The teams both shot lights out in this game. I don't think it will happen again. Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total. Take the under. |
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03-08-22 | Marshall v. Florida International UNDER 147 | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 44 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd still play very fast, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a couple years ago. Marshall is 205th in the nation in offensive efficiency. FIU was 30th in the nation in tempo two years ago. They were 82nd last year. FIU ranks only 200th in tempo this year. FIU is 274th in offensive efficiency. I believe Jeremy Ballard knew he doesn't have great offensive talent this year so he changed up their style of play. Both games in the regular season went under this total. This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances. Take the under. |
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03-07-22 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State UNDER 151 | 72-92 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been one of the top two defenses in the Summit League each of the last four seasons. North Dakota State games have been solid under bets because they provide much better resistance than the majority of teams in this league. Additionally, N Dakota State is good at slowing down the pace of the game. Oral Roberts and North Dakota State played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 143 and 136 points total. This game will be played at a neutral site where the under has had the edge. Take the under here. |
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03-06-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra UNDER 160.5 | 92-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This isn't an easy bet to make. Both of these teams play fast and they have had some very high scoring games. The two games between these teams this year finished at 149 and 173 points. Why am I betting this? The angles suggest a number this high in conference tournaments with a neutral court are very tough to reach. This arena in Washington DC is 8-2 to the under thus far in postseason play. It is playing as an under venue. Just blindly betting postseason neutral court unders of 150 or more is hitting nearly 55% in the last 8 years. Charleston plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. They are only mediocre shooters from long range. The last game between these two teams featured an epic foul fest late that led to 60 points in the final 10 minutes. That made the game much higher scoring than it should have been. This one is difficult to bet, but in the long run these spots have been good. Take the under. |
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03-06-22 | Albany v. Hartford UNDER 132.5 | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and Albany Great Danes met twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 123 and 122 total points. Those games should have been even lower according to Shot Quality based on the types of shots taken by both teams. The two games should have finished with 112 and 105 points according to Shot Quality. This is a postseason contest, and the win or go home mindset usually slows the game down a bit. Both of these teams like to play slowly to begin with. It's really important to note that neither of these teams gets to the line much at all. Both regular season games featured less than 20 combined free throw attempts. I expect another low scoring contest here. Take the under. |
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03-06-22 | Penn State v. Rutgers UNDER 126 | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are allowing 1.003 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing 0.912 points per possession at home. Rutgers has a terrific home court advantage and a lot of that comes from their ability to slow teams down and play excellent defense at home. Penn State won the first matchup 66-49. Shot Quality says based on the shots taken in that game the final should have been 57-56. That was no fluke that the game was extremely low scoring. Penn State ranks 355th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo on offense. Rutgers ranks 296th in overall tempo in the country. The pace should be extremely slow here. Neither team fouls much and both teams are good at defending without fouling. Take the under. |
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03-05-22 | Southern Utah v. Weber State OVER 149.5 | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds go to Weber State to take on the Wildcats on Saturday evening. These teams rank 112th and 63rd in the country in tempo, so the pace should be very quick in this one. The first meeting between them was 92-84 Weber State. Shot Quality believes the game should have been 86-77, which is still far above this total. Weber State ranks 354th in the country in 3 point defense. Southern Utah puts up a lot of 3's and they are shooting 37.6% from 3 in Big Sky Conference play. Southern Utah has scored 79 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Weber State's offense has some big edges in this game. The Wildcats are efficient near the hoop and Southern Utah isn't good defending at the rim. The Wildcats also are good in transition and Southern Utah's transition defense has been a weakness this year. An up and down pace should be expected here. Both teams are solid at the line and get to the line quite a bit. Take the over. |
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03-05-22 | Oregon State v. Washington OVER 146 | 67-78 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for two teams who have had very disappointing seasons this year. Oregon State was in the Elite 8 last year and now they are 3-26 this season. Unreal. The Beavers defense was #106 in the country last year, but they are an awful #339 out of 358 in the country this year. Washington excels at getting quick points in transition, especially off steals. They are 7th in quick points off steals according to Haslametrics. Oregon State is 317th at preventing those. Look for a lot of run outs for Washington. The Huskies are elite on the offensive glass, and Oregon State has been terrible on the defensive boards. While Washington isn't very good from 3 point range, they are great near the hoop, and Oregon State has virtually no interior defense. Oregon State is 7th in the country in second chance percentage, so the Beavers should get a bunch of second chance points on a Washington defense that struggles to rebound out of the zone. Late season games between two mediocre or poor teams have been good over bets in the last 15 years. This one fits. Take the over. |
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03-05-22 | Drake v. Missouri State UNDER 136.5 | 79-78 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The under is now 71-38 at Enterprise Arena in the postseason. The MVC tournament has been a bunch of very low scoring games. This is a hockey arena that has tough shooting backdrops. Both games in the regular season between these two teams stayed under this total. These two teams both prefer to play slowly, and I think with this game being win or go home it is very likely to be slow as far as the tempo. Both teams usually shoot the ball pretty well from 3, but we've seen much lower than normal shooting percentages in this arena in the past. Take the under. |
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03-05-22 | Rice v. Texas-San Antonio OVER 147 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams finished 91-78. This game probably won't finish that high, but I like it to go over the total. Rice puts up a lot of shots from long range. The Owls rank 91st in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. The UTSA defense ranks 315th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. What about the closest shots? According to Haslametrics, Rice is 96th in near proximity FG percentage and UTSA is 248th in defense of those shots near the hoop. UTSA pushes the pace. The Roadrunners are 102nd in the nation in tempo. They are one of the worst defenses in the country and Rice shouldn't have much trouble scoring against them. UTSA has been good especially in recent weeks with forcing turnovers and turning them into quick points in transition. Rice has struggled with turnovers and their transition defense is very weak. Take the over here. |
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03-04-22 | Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 133 | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. Bradley ranks #1 in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago ranks #2. There won't be many easy shots in this one. Bradley started the season out playing quick, but their tempo slowed in the important games in the MVC. This is a win or go home game and I would expect both teams to slow down and work really hard on defense. With the history of this tournament and the top two defenses- I have to bet the under here. Take the under. |
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03-03-22 | UC San Diego v. CS Bakersfield OVER 135 | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UC San Diego Tritons put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. UC San Diego is shooting a solid 35% from 3 point range on the season. They also shoot 73.5% from the free throw line. Cal State Bakersfield ranks dead last in the country in free throws attempted. UC San Diego should get to the stripe a lot here. CSU Bakersfield is aggressive going to the rim on offense. They should have success getting to the rim against a weak UC San Diego defense in the interior. UC San Diego has blocked the 6th fewest shots of any team in the country this season. This is a late season game between two teams who have little to play for and those have been good for over bettors in the last 15 years. In fact, games between two teams with a 55% win percentage or lower in the month of March with a total of 150 or lower are 531-423 since 2006. That is an impressive 55.7% win rate for the over in a large sample size. Take the over. |
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03-03-22 | Evansville v. Valparaiso UNDER 128.5 | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. Evansville ranks 357th out of 358 in the country in tempo. The Purple Aces are also 341st in offensive efficiency. Valparaiso is a relatively slow paced team as well. Both teams are good on the defensive boards. It will usually be just one shot for the offenses in this game. The tough shooting backdrop at this hockey arena and two slow paced weak offenses. Take the under. |
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03-03-22 | Portland State v. Idaho OVER 153.5 | 79-68 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are a unique team. They like to push the pace and use a full court press to try to create steals and quick scores. The Vikings should have success with that against this Idaho team. Portland State is 21st in quick breakaway points off a steal according to Haslametrics. Idaho is 344th in allowing those steals and scores. On the other side, Idaho is a 3 point reliant team. The Portland State Vikings rank dead last (358th) in the country in catch and shoot 3 point defense according to Shot Quality. Idaho ranks 26th in catch and shoot 3 offense. The Vandals also get to the line a lot and shoot 75.8% from the line. Portland State fouls more than anyone else in the Big Sky thanks to their aggressive defense. These two teams are 343rd and 357th in second chance conversion percentage defense. That means they allow a bunch of second chance points. Take the over here. |
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03-03-22 | Indiana State v. Illinois State UNDER 144.5 | 53-58 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. These two teams played two times in the regular season. Here are the details of the two matchups 1. Indiana State win 60-57 (Shot Quality says the score should have been 70-66) 2. Illinois State wins 86-66 (Shot Quality believes the score should have been 54-49) The tough shooting backdrop and a very high posted total here for a MVC game that is win or go home. Take the under. |
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03-02-22 | Houston Baptist v. New Orleans OVER 149 | 74-75 | Push | 0 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Baptist Huskies have been picking their pace up at the end of the season. They were ultra fast in the past couple seasons, but were playing slower earlier this year. Now, Houston Baptist is back to running once again. The Huskies have had 7 straight games finish with at least 145 points scored. In three of those seven games, there have been at least 173 points. New Orleans gets to the line at the highest clip of any team in the country. They are up against Houston Baptist team that is aggressive and fouls at a very high rate. New Orleans actually shot the ball really poorly from the floor against Houston Baptist in the first meeting, but they got to the line 41 times. They aren't likely to get that many trips here, but it is likely to be a big number. New Orleans has seen three straight games finish at 163 points or higher. A high scoring contest is likely here. Take the over. |
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03-02-22 | Middle Tennessee v. Charlotte UNDER 143.5 | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders have slowed their pace down quite a bit in recent weeks. MTSU is using about 18.5 seconds per possession on offense in their last five games. That is a big difference from their non-conference pace earlier in the year of about 16.8 seconds per possession. MTSU is a pretty good defensive team. The Blue Raiders are 99th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their biggest weaknesses on defense are on the defensive glass and fouling too much. Charlotte isn't a good offensive rebounding team, and the 49ers aren't very good at getting to the line either. Charlotte ranks 264th in the nation in tempo. The 49ers are an inconsistent team. They do play slowly though, and the first game between these two teams played to just 60 possessions. I look for another slow pace and at this high of a number, I have to back the under. Take the under. |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 150.5 | 91-71 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans slowed the pace down quite a bit when they took on Arizona the first time around. I think they'll try to do the same again. While they weren't able to win in the first meeting, the much slower pace allowed them to stay in touch throughout on the road against a top five opponent. Arizona ranks 6th in the country in tempo, but the Wildcats are 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. This is an excellent Wildcats defense. They have all kinds of length on the inside and they are shot blocking machines. Koloko is a game changer on the defensive end. USC tries to get the ball inside and they attempt a lot of shots in the paint and in the mid range area. Those shots are unlikely to be open against Arizona. Arizona is 131st in the nation in 3 point percentage on offense. USC does have trouble defending the 3 at times, but Arizona's 3 point shooting has been one of their biggest weaknesses as a team this year. These teams rank first and second in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Both of these offenses take a lot more 2's than 3's and they should find it tough sledding in this one. Take the under. |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State UNDER 134.5 | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have played nine straight games that have finished with 131 total points or less. That includes a 65-60 win over New Mexico on the road. It also includes a 68-63 overtime loss to Boise State. Fresno State has played 27 games this year. Only four of them have gone over this posted total. The Bulldogs are a double digit favorite here and I think they'll get to play at their pace. Fresno State ranks 356th out of 358 in the country in tempo. New Mexico has gradually slowed their pace of play during the season. The Lobos were really pushing pace early in the season, but lately they have been playing at only a slightly above average tempo. They played more to the pace of Fresno State in the first matchup. New Mexico has relied on getting to the free throw line a lot, but Fresno State ranks in the top 25% in the country in least fouls committed. Take the under here. |
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02-27-22 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 227.5 | 118-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul and Cam Payne right now. Aaron Holiday is questionable for this game. It might be Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet seeing a lot of time in the backcourt here. Utah ranks second slowest in tempo in the last five games and fourth slowest in the league in tempo in their last ten games. The Jazz also rank top five in the league in defensive efficiency in both of those periods. Phoenix isn't as elite on offense without Paul on the floor. It puts more pressure on Booker and Ayton. Early Sunday games have been strong under angles in the long run. Also, from game 60 of the season on a game between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher is 56.7% to the under in the last 15 years. Take the under here. |
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02-26-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Houston Baptist OVER 143 | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Houston Baptist Huskies played much slower earlier this year. In recent games they have decided to push the pace once again. Houston Baptist has seen their last 6 games all reach at least 145 points total. In fact, three of those six have reached at least 173 points. They are back to playing very high scoring contests. Texas A&M Corpus Christi actually ranks 2nd in the Southland in tempo. The Islanders are playing very quickly. Their offense isn't always good, but they are up against a Houston Baptist defense that is very weak here. Both of these teams come up with a lot of steals and quick points in transition. Both teams also do a lot of fouling, so I expect a lot of free points at the charity stripe. Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played 8 of their last 9 games over this total. Take the over. |
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02-26-22 | Sam Houston State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 129 | 41-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished 58-56. These are two teams who are better on defense than offense. They also both prefer playing at a slow pace. Sam Houston State is the slowest paced team in the WAC. The Bearkats have allowed 63 points or less in regulation in five of their last six games. Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the nation in 3 point defense. That's important since Sam Houston State likes to put up a lot of shots from long range. Both teams have a relatively high turnover percentage so I expect a decent amount of wasted possessions. There won't be too many possessions in the game in general either. The first game was played to a pace of just 61 possessions. Take the under. |
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02-26-22 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 129.5 | 49-56 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green are amazing at controlling the pace of the game. North Texas is the best team in Conference USA. Their defense is top notch. North Texas is playing at the 358th pace out of 358 teams in the country. There is no one slowing the pace down more than the Mean Green. In 10 of North Texas' last 11 games the final combined total of points has been 125 points or lower. That includes their first meeting with LA Tech which finished 63-62 and was played to a very slow pace of only 58 possessions. Shot Quality believes that game should have finished at only 121 points. LA Tech takes a lot of shots from long range, but North Texas ranks 8th in the nation in 3 point defense. The Bulldogs should find it tough going against this Mean Green defense. Take the under. |
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02-26-22 | Southern Illinois v. Drake OVER 129 | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs are an above average offensive team. They have had multiple games in the last few weeks where their offense has been humming. Drake's Shanquan Hemphill missed the first game between these two teams, and he is a big loss. Southern Illinois was great defensively early in the year, but their defensive numbers have tailed off in recent weeks. The Salukis offense has been excellent in recent games behind Marcus Domask, who has been red hot from the floor. Neither of these teams turn the ball over much at all. This is a late season game (final regular season game) between two teams who have little to play for. These games have been strong over angles in the past 15 years. Take the over. |
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02-26-22 | College of Charleston v. Drexel OVER 150 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Charleston Cougars are first in the country in tempo. They will push the pace and they are going to get a lot of second chances on offense. Charleston really crashes the boards well. Charleston got 13 offensive rebounds in the first meeting between these teams. Drexel has some great 3 point shooters. The Dragons are willing to put it up often from long range, and Charleston has struggled to defend beyond the arc. Drexel made 10/23 from 3 point range in the first meeting between these two teams. Drexel has been very good offensively on their home floor. They put up 75 in a loss to Charleston on the road, but I think they'll put up a bigger number here. There is a chance of overtime or a late foul fest based on the point spread here. Take the over. |
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02-24-22 | Morehead State v. Eastern Illinois UNDER 125 | 82-46 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers rank second last (357th out of 358) in the country in offensive efficiency. This is an offense that is taking 20 seconds per possession on average so they are very slow, and they are terrible when they shoot it as well. In 16 league games, Eastern Illinois has seen their games finish at 119 total points or less in 8 of 16 games. That's just an unheard of amount of extremely low scoring games. Now, they go up against an excellent defense led by shot blocker Johni Broome. Eastern Illinois only scored 50 in the first matchup between these two. They'll likely be around that number again here. Morehead State plays at a slow pace as well. The Eagles are also coming off an embarrassing defensive performance where SE Missouri State hit 15 three pointers against them. I think their defense will be much more focused here. Take the under. |
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02-24-22 | Bryant v. St Francis NY OVER 149.5 | 86-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs are arguably the best team in the NEC when healthy. Bryant is excellent at pushing the pace and dictating the tempo. Bryant beat St. Francis earlier this year 85-68 in a game that was played to a very quick pace of 75 possessions. St. Francis and Bryant are two very good offensive rebounding teams. That showed itself in the first matchup between these two. St. Francis has 20 offensive boards and Bryant had 14 offensive boards. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 15 in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed on defense. Expect a lot of second chance points in this game. Bryant is first in the league in FT/FGA so trips to the stripe should come as well. Both of these teams rank in the top 55 in the country in "Free throw defense" which simply means their defense is due for some more regression. Both of these teams are above average from the line. Take the over. |
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02-24-22 | Merrimack v. Long Island UNDER 134.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack is a very limited team on offense. They have played their last three games against Sacred Heart, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Sacred Heart again. Those are easily the two worst defenses in the NEC. Now, they go to take on an LIU defense that ranks third in the NEC in defensive efficiency. Merrimack ranks 332nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. This is a team that has been shooting the ball really well from 3 point range, but LIU has been top 100 in 3 point defense both last year and this year. Merrimack was an epic 17/26 from 3 point range in the first meeting between these two. That isn't going to happen again. LIU plays very fast, but the Sharks aren't good on offense. In fact, they rank just 253rd in offensive efficiency. LIU will go up against a tricky Merrimack zone defense here that often forces their opponent to slow down their tempo quite a bit. Recent high scoring games from Merrimack have given us value on the under. Take the under here. |
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02-23-22 | North Florida v. Jacksonville UNDER 128.5 | 39-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins have been one of the best under teams in the nation this year. This is a low total, but Jacksonville has been routinely playing games under this low number. In fact, 8 of their last 13 games have stayed under this number in regulation. The first meeting between these two teams finished 54-51. A total of 105 is pretty extreme, but based on the quality of shots taken in that game, it should have finished at only 112 points even with normalized shooting numbers. North Florida puts up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. Jacksonville is easily the best 3 point defense in the Atlantic Sun. Jacksonville is allowing opponents to shoot only 29.7% from 3 point range on the year. Jacksonville ranks 354th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo. The Dolphins rank 54th in effective field goal percentage defense. North Florida is 2nd in the Atlantic Sun in defensive efficiency. They have protected the paint well, and Jacksonville relies on getting into the paint. Take the under here. |
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02-22-22 | New Mexico v. Utah State UNDER 151 | 56-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies have shot only 29.2% from 3 point range in the Mountain West Conference. Brock Miller's injury has really slowed down this offense from the outside. Utah State is an above average offense, but they aren't elite. New Mexico has been slowing their pace down of late. Richard Pitino's Minnesota teams did this often late in the season as well. They would turn their tempo down late in the regular season. The Lobos have struggled with offensive efficiency on the road as well. The first game between these two was 76-76 before OT. Shot Quality suggests that game saw higher than expected shooting numbers. Both teams have played a bit slower later in the season and I think this total is a little too high considering their recent trends. Take the under. |
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02-22-22 | San Diego State v. Boise State UNDER 120.5 | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The first game between San Diego State and Boise State went to Boise State by a final score of 42-37. That wasn't the halftime score. It was the score at the end of the contest. San Diego State ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Aztecs are as good as you'll find on defense. Their athleticism and ability to play defense as a team guide them toward their great numbers. Boise State ranks 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Broncos are also playing much slower than they did a year ago. They are averaging six possessions less per game in MWC action compared to a year ago. San Diego State's halfcourt offense is a major problem. The Aztecs try to get out in transition off steals because they are so bad in the halfcourt, but Boise State is easily the best transition defense in the MWC. Two good teams playing each other late in the season has been good for under bettors. This has been the case even more strongly in games with low totals. The oddsmakers have set this total low, but it still isn't low enough. Take the under. |