Our NBA East Finals Game of the Year on the New York Knicks to win against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday begins with series command. The Knicks lead the East Finals 3-0. They are one victory away from their first NBA Finals trip since 1999. New York has won 10 playoff games in a row. Game 3 was another definitive win, a 121-108 victory in Cleveland where the Knicks never let the Cavaliers get comfortable.

The biggest reason to fade Cleveland here is balance. Jalen Brunson is still the closer, posting 30 points in Game 3, but the Knicks are not just giving the ball to him late. Mikal Bridges had 22, OG Anunoby had 21, Karl- Anthony Towns and Josh Hart kept rolling on both ends and Landry Shamet provided New York with another huge bench boost. This depth has killed Cleveland in this series. The Cavaliers can stack the floor against Brunson, but New York has too many other winners to worry about offensively and defensively.

What hurts Cleveland the most is how uneven its offense has been throughout the game. Cleveland got 24 points from Evan Mobley, 23 from Donovan Mitchell and 19 from James Harden, but turnovers, poor free throw shooting and even worse three-point shooting sunk them. Harden has also faced heavy scrutiny after yet another late-game playoff collapse. If Cleveland’s guards are not hitting shots at a high level, the Cavs simply do not have enough to work with against a Knicks team that is playing this well.

Keep in mind that the Knicks have also earned the mental advantage. They erased a gigantic deficit in Game 1, took care of business in Game 2 and then went into Cleveland and won Game 3 by more than a basket. The Knicks have not just been riding home court momentum. Their defense, rebounding, shot-making and clutch performance has all translated on the road. Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson even had words of respect for how New York avoided complacency on this historic run.

At the end of the day, our Game of the Year angle is simple: the Knicks are hotter, deeper, tougher and just overall better than Cleveland. Cleveland is fighting for its life here, but the Knicks have already won this matchup three different ways. If Brunson continues to control the game flow, Towns and Bridges continue to attack the rim and stretch the floor, and Anunoby keeps thriving on both ends of the floor, the Knicks have too much strength to fall here.

Jim's Play: 557. Knicks (NBA East Finals Game of the Year)

The biggest thing trending in San Antonio Spurs favor right now is the series shift. San Antonio did its job stealing Game 1 in Oklahoma City, and now the series is tied 1-1 as we head back to the Frost Bank Center. Home floor advantage matters, especially for a young Spurs team looking to feed off the energy of the crowd after splitting the first two games on the road.

San Antonio’s biggest reason to like themselves still starts in Victor Wembanyama. In Game 1, Wembanyama exploded for 41 points and 24 rebounds in San Antonio’s double-overtime victory. Oklahoma City figured some things out defensively in Game 2 and Wemby finished with more reasonable stats, but San Antonio will have opportunities in Game 3 to adjust as well. Expect San Antonio to get Wemby easier looks, move him around the floor more, and make the Thunder defend without grabbing, holding, or putting multiple defenders in the paint.

San Antonio also gets the emotional advantage after Game 2 ended the way it did. There has been plenty of chatter about how Oklahoma City defended Wembanyama and the Spurs’ guards throughout the game, and that narrative can work in San Antonio’s favor if they feel the whistle at home. If Wemby can get to the foul line more frequently and Oklahoma City can’t be as physical with him on the perimeter away from the ball, Spurs’ offense is much easier to manage.

The injury report swings both ways, as Spurs guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are questionable to play in Game 3 while Oklahoma City guard Jalen Williams is also questionable after leaving Game 2 early with a hamstring injury. If Williams is limited or ruled out, that takes one of OKC’s best two-way players off the floor and puts even more pressure on Shai Gilgeous- Alexander to create offense.

San Antonio’s game plan is fairly simple: take care of the basketball, get Wembanyama involved early, limit OKC on the offensive glass, and force the Thunder to play in the half court. If San Antonio can eliminate the live-ball turnovers that led to so many Oklahoma City buckets in Game 2, the Spurs have enough size, shot creation, and home court atmosphere to pull away late.

Jim's Play: 552. Spurs (Money Line)  

Opening the case for Detroit begins with home court. The series stands tied at 2-2, so Game 5 returns to Detroit where the Pistons have successfully covered the floor twice in this series. The Pistons also should enjoy a significant bounce-back factor heading into Game 5. Detroit fell in Cleveland 112-103, but that contest swung on a massive second-half outburst by Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers wing scored 43 points on 39 points after the break. Cleveland also got a major free-throw discrepancy, as Mitchell alone attempted more free throws than the entire Pistons team. Expecting that to happen again, especially at Little Caesars Arena, would be folly.

Arguably the biggest reason to back Detroit on Wednesday though is Cade Cunningham. Detroit has relied on their rookie all postseason and at home I trust him to control the tempo of this game. Get downhill, attack the rim, make Cleveland’s guards work, and allow Detroit’s other weapons to beat you.

Detroit does not need to blow Cleveland out to cover the spread. The Pistons merely need to win the possession game, avoid fouling, and limit the Cavs easy transition baskets.

Yes the Cavaliers still have Donovan Mitchell and he has been incredible, but Cleveland has been forcing him to do way too much for far too long. Mitchell has scored over 27.5 points in each of the last three games and against Detroit’s defense Cleveland has been far too Mitchell-heavy offensively. Detroit making him work for his shots and getting contributions from elsewhere on the road gives them the better cover profile.

We are set for the swing game of the series and Detroit has the favorable setup. Home floor, coming off a disappointing loss in which they were blown out, a short spread, and a defensive identity that attacks the basket without fouling and forcing opponents into jumpers. If Cunningham can dictate pace and Detroit keeps Mitchell away from the charity stripe, Detroit should cover with a nice chance to win outright as well.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons

The first reason I think New York beats Philadelphia on Sunday is because of the series itself. The Knicks lead 3-0 after another Game 3 win at Philadelphia, 108-94, and they’ve been the tougher, deeper, more balanced and connected team through the first three games. Jalen Brunson had another stellar performance with 33 points and nine assists, and New York kept answering every Philadelphia surge.

Depth and toughness have been New York’s biggest advantages through three games. The Knicks have won the battle on the glass and physically they’ve been tougher. New York also hasn’t had everything go perfectly to win games. OG Anunoby sat out Game 3 with a hamstring strain, but New York still won by 14 on Philly’s home floor. Landry Shamet gave New York a solid lift off the bench and Miles McBride stepped up and helped eat minutes while still continuing to receive solid two-way contributions from Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart.

Brunson is why I think New York can close this series now, too. Philly has really not had an answer for him when the game is on the line, and when Brunson gets downhill it forces the Sixers into rotation after rotation defensively. That leads to offensive rebounds, corner threes and easy buckets for the Knicks’ role players. When playing a closeout game, the team with the best half-court creator typically has the advantage, and New York is the team with the best half-court creator.

Philadelphia’s biggest problem is they still do not have Joel Embiid fully right. Embiid came back for Game 3 after sitting out Game 2, but he’s still dealing with hip and ankle problems and we’ve seen his mobility affected. He’s probable for Game 4, but if Embiid can’t dominate the glass and protect the rim like he usually does the Sixers are forced to rely on Tyrese Maxey and Paul George creating offense and making shots. We’ve seen how well that formula can work against this Knicks team.

I really think the Knicks just need to avoid falling into that dreaded closeout-game-on-the-road slow start. If New York can match Philly’s energy early on, stay competitive on the boards and let Brunson run the late-clock offense they should cruise. The Sixers will fight you for maybe a half, but New York’s defense, depth and late-game execution should be enough to wear Philly down.

Jim's Play: 505. Knicks

The Philadelphia 76ers to win and cover Friday night is first and foremost built on desperation. Philadelphia enters Game 3 down 0-2 in the series knowing that this is essentially a must-win situation at home. Nobody wants to go down 3-0 in any series, let alone the playoffs, and the Sixers should be playing with the highest of energies now that we head to Philadelphia. Not to mention, the market has shifted enough to put this game into winnable territory with Philadelphia as a small favorite. 

Philadelphia largely showed that progression in Game 2 already. They were getting destroyed in Game 1 before showing up ready to play Wednesday and pushing the Knicks in a 108-102 loss. This tells me the series is tightening up. Philadelphia will not need a complete reinvention to win this game. They need better possessions, fewer turnovers and a better finish down the stretch. New York is holding Philadelphia to 37 turnovers through two games and scoring 48 points off of those turnovers, so if Philly can take care of the ball, they will be in great position to win the game.

Speaking of protection, the injury report opens a real door for Philadelphia here as well. Joel Embiid is questionable to play with both an ankle issue and a hip issue. Obviously if Embiid plays this game takes a complete 180, but even a limited Embiid helps change things defensively for New York. Embiid in the starting lineup forces New York to play defense in the paint differently, puts pressure on Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns defensively and opens things up for Tyrese Maxey and Philadelphia’s shooters. The Knicks also have injury concerns of their own, as OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are both questionable to play in Game 3. Anunoby is dealing with a hamstring strain, while Hart has a thumb injury. OG has been huge for New York this postseason averaging over 21 points per game, so any hiccups there would damage the Knicks on offense and defense.

There are a lot of factors that play into this, but everything starts with Tyrese Maxey for Philadelphia. Maxey was forced to do too much in Game 2 and Philadelphia understandably ran out of steam late, but being at home should help the Sixers find a more balanced attack. Maxey can create off the dribble against Jalen Brunson and the rest of New York’s guards while George and Oubre will need to provide enough offense from deep to prevent the Knicks from doubling Maxey every chance they get. Even a slight bump from Philadelphia’s bench would go a long way in this game.

Give New York credit, they have played well enough to be up 2-0. But I feel like this is about as classic of a series-shift spot as you can get. The Knicks took care of business at home, but Philadelphia gets homecourt advantage now in terms of the crowd, urgency and adjustments. Philadelphia was really close in Game 2 despite shooting themselves in the foot several times. With better ball protection, more frequent trips to the foul line and the potential addition of Embiid, the Sixers have everything they need to cover the short number and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 572. 76ers 

Toronto covers Monday because the spread still affords the Raptors plenty of cushion in what should be a tighter Game 2 than Game 1. Cleveland opened as a -8.5 favorite before settling at -9.5. 

It also makes sense from a bounce-back premise after Toronto’s 126-113 loss on Saturday. That final score might as well have been 13 because Cleveland entered the fourth quarter with a lead of 100-76. This implied Toronto spent Game 1 missing shots while Cleveland caught fire from deep (the Cavs went 16-for-32 on three-pointers). Toronto did score 24 points from RJ Barrett, 21 points from Scottie Barnes, and 17 points apiece from Brandon Ingram and Jamal Shead. Granted, seven Raptors reached double-figures, but they had enough offense to keep pace with Cleveland had they not had lapses on defense their coach highlighted after the game.

Immanuel Quickley’s availability is another key factor in Toronto’s favor on the spread. He missed Game 1 with a strained hamstring, but currently list as game-time decision for Monday. He was expected to miss multiple games before being deemed active for just Game 1. Toronto probably would not roll him 100 percent if he is available, but having any real chance to activate him means the Raptors should be able to stabilize their guard play, pace, and half-court offense.

Toronto has enough playmakers to make adjustments in a playoff game too. Toronto finished with a 46-36 record while Cleveland went 52-30. Toronto’s resume was not bad enough to run away from this spot, but they do have Barnes, Barrett, and Ingram to prevent Cleveland from pulling away on the Raptors again.

Toronto covering the spread is your 1st Round Game of the Year because the Raptors can improve from Game 1, figure to have more rotation depth if Quickley can play, and the betting line has moved towards Cleveland enough to where you can trust the dog. If Toronto defends three-point shooting better and prevents Cleveland from heating up like they did in Game 1, they will have a great opportunity to keep it closer than expected Monday night.

Jim's Play: 501. Raptors (NBA 1st Round Game of the Year)

Let’s start with why Orlando actually has a legitimate shot to win outright Wednesday night. The value shifts significantly when Joel Embiid is ruled out for Philadelphia. Embiid is Philly’s best interior scorer, rebounder, and rim protector, so multiple previews highlighted the center matchup as a weakness for Philly, as they will have to rely on Andre Drummond and Adem Bona to keep up with Orlando’s frontcourt talent. This shift becomes glaring when you consider Orlando is built around larger wings and forwards like Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane.

Orlando also sports the type of roster that should make life difficult for Philadelphia’s guards. The Magic operate as one of the bigger teams in the league while also boasting strong perimeter defense as part of its identity. Multiple betting previews noted the Magic’s defense presents issues for Philadelphia, especially if Tyrese Maxey can’t fully stay on top of his finger tendon injury while Embiid sits. If Orlando can keep Maxey grounded, it really does even the playing field in what would otherwise be a typical road play-in favorite scenario.

Don’t overlook the talent side of things with Orlando, either. Simply put, Orlando boasts three potential star scorers with Banchero, Wagner, and Bane. Coverage targeting Philadelphia mentioned the trio as “dangerous” and noted how any of those three are capable of exploding for 30-plus points. In a play-in game, shot creation will be paramount, and Orlando having multiple players that defenses fear is a net positive.

Throw in that Orlando was riding four straight wins just a week ago when they dropped 53.7% from the field and 41.4% from three against Minnesota, and there’s some recent form backing up this upset and cover argument as well. The Magic posted up a nearly identical 45-37 record to Philly’s, so we’re not talking about some massive discrepancy game on paper. This one should be close based solely on records, and that was reflected in the opening line with Orlando as a slight underdog around +2.

Putting it all together, I really like Orlando’s best-case game script: attack Philly with size in the post, create good offense through Banchero and Wagner, and force an undermanned Sixers team to play from behind without Embiid controlling the paint. If that happens, the Magic have every chance in the world to pull off the outright win. 

Jim's Play: 561. Magic (Play-In Game of the Year)

Michigan is the right side to win and cover because this is basically a coin-flip heavyweight matchup, yet the Wolverines are the team laying the short number at -1.5, which tells you the market sees them as slightly better on this floor. Tipoff is 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday, April 4, at Lucas Oil Stadium, and both teams arrive as No. 1 seeds, with Michigan at 35-3 and Arizona at 36-2.

The biggest reason to trust Michigan is the balance between elite defense and a tournament offense that has been exploding. Michigan is the nation’s top-ranked defense with the No. 5 offense, while Arizona comes in with the No. 2 defense and No. 4 offense, so there is not much separation overall. The difference is that Michigan has looked more overwhelming in this tournament run, including a 95-62 blowout of Tennessee in the Elite Eight, the Wolverines became the first team to win four NCAA Tournament games by double digits while scoring at least 90 points in each. That kind of current form matters when you only need them to cover a basket or less.

Michigan also has the best recent momentum of the two teams. Against Tennessee, Yaxel Lendeborg scored 27 points, Elliot Cadeau handed out 10 assists, and AP highlighted Michigan’s deep, unselfish style and transition attack. Arizona was impressive in beating Purdue, but its path looked more dependent on a second-half rally after trailing by seven at halftime. Michigan has been the team dictating games from the jump, and that is exactly what you want when backing a favorite to cover a short spread.

There is also a clear matchup path for Michigan: make Arizona play from the perimeter. Arizona relies heavily on interior play, physicality, and an elite free-throw rate, while Michigan’s edge may come from perimeter shooting, where the Wolverines have hit 44.6% from three in the tournament. If Michigan keeps spacing the floor and forces Arizona to chase shooters instead of controlling the paint, the Wolverines have the cleaner route to offensive separation.

This feels like a game Michigan wins by at least four points, which would be enough to both advance and cover.

Jim's Play: 651. Michigan

Creighton is appealing to me as a spread play against Rutgers Thursday, April 2 in the Crown Tournament. from Las Vegas, NV.  This game doesn’t necessarily play perfectly according to spreadsheet and stats, but enough things line up that I think Creighton can win easily against an underwhelming Scarlet Knights team. The line opened with Creighton around -4.5, which means that they do not have to run Rutgers off the court to cash. Simply playing a controlled game should get the job done, especially considering this is on a neutral floor against a Rutgers team that went 14-19 overall and was horrific away from home at 2-9.

Creighton was much more consistent at home (10-6) this season and enters this game as a hefty betting favorite for those reasons. Rutgers has had difficulty sustaining consistent offense all season long. They have talent, but their overall body of work shows a team that hasn’t been able to put it all together for long stretches of time. That makes them dangerous in any game because an off night could easily derail a tournament run, but inconsistent teams are difficult to trust against Creighton.

Motivation is also an interesting angle here. This is Greg McDermott’s last season with Creighton before he steps down. The players know this and I would assume they want to send him out with a strong postseason run. In a “second season” tournament like the Crown motivation is often the difference maker between matchups and Creighton should have all the motivation in the world to keep McDermott coaching.

On paper Creighton also has enough offensive balance to win this game. The Bluejays scored 75.1 points per game with a variety of players contributing. Josh Dix is the team’s best scorer while Nik Graves was their lead playmaker. Offensively, they are not a great team, but they can put enough pressure on Rutgers if they shoot around average from the perimeter and take care of the basketball. Live-ball turnovers were a problem for Creighton at times this season, but they forced problems for opponents all year long. Give Creighton some leeway on offense and they should be able to control the pace of this game and force Rutgers to play catch-up.

Lastly, just look at the spread itself. When I first looked at the game Creighton was anywhere from a 3.5 to 4.5 favorite. Basically, the market is saying that Creighton is better than Rutgers by more than one full possession on a neutral floor. I don’t think that number is inflated at all and gives Creighton plenty of room to cover the spread without dominating Rutgers. 

There are a lot of reasons to like Creighton in this spot. They should be the steadier team on both ends, have a clear motivation boost, and this just feels like a game where they should be able to wear Rutgers down.

Jim's Play: 898. Creighton (Crown Tourney Game of the Year)

A couple angles are jumping out at me already: Duke is laying 5-5.5 points, and BOTH TEAMS have point guard health concerns going into a game that won’t likely be decided by much if the spread holds. 

Connecticut is a live play to cover primarily because this game feels like more of a grinder than a blowout is possible. Right off the bat, the biggest reason to like UConn against the number is experience, balance and simple tournament know-how. The Huskies are 32-5 on the year, just defeated Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight and have combined to go 16-1 in NCAA Tournament games over the last four seasons. That resume matters in this spot against a Duke team that had to battle St. John’s down the stretch to escape with a 80-75 victory.

Add in the fact that UConn has enough frontcourt weaponry to keep this game close for 40 minutes, too. Tarris Reed Jr. has been phenomenal for UConn in the tournament so far, and the combination of Reed and Alex Karaban gives the Huskies enough size, rebounding and interior scoring potential to not get bullied on the inside by Cameron Boozer and Duke’s overall length. As long as Reed continues to produce at an efficient rate inside, UConn doesn’t need to knock down shots to keep things within reach of the number.

Depth and health for Duke’s backcourt are also reasons to believe that UConn can at least keep this game close. The Blue Devils got an emotional boost from Caleb Foster’s return against St. John’s, but it’s unclear how effective Foster will be and/or how he’ll hold up over the course of 40 minutes fresh off a foot fracture. Both teams have point guard health concerns coming into this game, but if either guy has an “off” night or struggles with ball security a little, it actually helps the underdog have a chance to cover in games like these, even if Duke gets past Connecticut.

There’s even a stylistic angle to like with UConn, too. UConn’s deeper, more experienced roster along with Duke’s iffy three-point shooting in tournament play so far. If Duke struggles from distance again, UConn can afford to pack the lane, force Boozer to earn tough two pointers and turn this game into a possession-by-possession battle instead of opening the floor up for Duke to create real separation.

Again, Connecticut can win this outright, but the easiest way I see the Huskies covering the spread is by doing just enough on the boards, preventing Boozer from getting going entirely and relying on solid guard play from Malachi Smith and their veteran guards. 

I'll take the points with U Conn here on Sunday. 

Jim's Play: 633. U Conn

I look for Purdue to cover the spread against Arizona in the Elite 8 on Saturday, March 28, 2026 based on this number being high enough where the Boilermakers’ advantages in experience and offensive structure keep this one close. Current lines have Arizona favored by 5.5 points to 6.5 points with Purdue coming in at 30-8 while Arizona comes in at 35-2.

Experience is the first category to like about Purdue taking this number. This is freshman-fueled Arizona team going against Purdue led by seniors and with a game this late in the NCAA Tournament that experience matters. Purdue’s starting lineup has been here before while Tommy Lloyd explicitly called out Purdue’s combination of experience and offensive structure, referencing the trio of seniors starters who helped Purdue win a title last season. In a winner-take-all game where every possession counts, having veterans helps navigate through tough stretches.

Speaking of Purdue’s offense, the Boilermakers boast an attack that keeps many underdogs in games. Purdue has one of the most potent attacks in the country, averaging 82.1 points per game while shooting better than 50% from the floor, and their offensive prowess runs through Braden Smith, who recently set the NCAA career assists record. Having a veteran point guard who can run the pace and create high percentage looks makes it difficult for favorites to separate.

Staying with Purdue, they are also quite tough to score against, which should come in handy against Arizona’s pressure defense. Purdue survived Texas on Trey Kaufman-Renn’s tip-in with 0.7 seconds remaining, committing only four turnovers in the process which tied an NCAA Tournament program record. Taking care of the ball like that against an Arizona team that thrives on getting extra possessions through steals and transition buckets will allow the Boilermakers to dictate the pace of play.

Lastly, it’s easy enough to see a path to Purdue staying under the number if they fall behind Arizona. After all, Arizona demolished Arkansas 109-88 to improve to 12 games over .500 while Purdue survived a barnburner against Texas. Arizona should be favored, but this number could open up too high based on both of those games. Purdue has the tools to slow this game down and keep it closer than Arizona’s game against Arkansas was, making living with Arizona for multiple possessions a worthwhile endeavor if betting against the number.

Betting on Purdue simply rests on them keeping pace with Arizona’s scoring. If Braden Smith dictates tempo, Kaufman-Renn can provide enough points inside to keep Arizona from going crazy on the offensive glass, and Purdue’s veterans remember how to win close games in March, the Boilermakers can cover this spread. Arizona could still win this game, but Purdue looks to have all the tools it needs to keep this within one-possession to two-possession range.

Jim's Play : 631. Purdue 

Unlike most games with a 1-vs-5 seeding, this game does not project to feature an extremely dominant team. The first reason St. John’s can cover is the number itself is playable. As of publication Duke -6.5 with a total of 141.5. St. John’s is getting over two full possessions in what should still be a close Sweet 16 matchup.

The best reason to side with St. John’s however is simple performance. Despite being a five seed, the Red Storm are 30-6 on the season and just made their first Sweet 16 since 1999 with a 67-65 win over Kansas. St. John’s did not trail in the second half and led by as many as 14 points, showing they can play with and even dominate stretches of a quality opponent.

There is also excellent recent-form evidence. St. John’s has won five games in a row coming into this contest. They’ve won games against Kansas, Northern Iowa, UConn, Seton Hall, and Providence. While Duke is also in a hot streak, St. John’s recent success paints them as a team who defends and excels in clutch situations.

An additional reason this number appeals is purely style of game. This does not project to be a high-scoring game that will fluctuate wildly. The total is down at 141.5 and Duke has gone under in 14 of its last 20 games while St. John’s has gone under in 11 of its last 12. A game that does not have teams scoring often opens up the floor for a +6.5 type spread to mean more because you waste less attempts getting down by double-digits.

On paper, there is no doubt Duke is the better team and should be favored. Duke is 34-2 overall this season while still ranking as the heaviest favorite to reach the Final Four. But, that same article refers to St. John’s as a No. 5 seed who just happened to be one of the highest seeds remaining in the tournament. If you buy into this game playing tight with a low total around 140, then St. John’s catches-plus becomes a lot more attractive.

If the game plays out cleanly for St. John’s, all they have to do is keep it physical, force Duke to execute from the half court, and stay within a possession or two for as long as possible. St. John’s has enough room to get the cover at +6.5.

Jim's Play: 621. St Johns (Sweet 16 Game of the Year)

I’m taking the Clippers tonight just because I believe Milwaukee’s injury report is the biggest matchup relevant factor. Milwaukee listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as out today with a knee injury. He was expected to be re-evaluated in roughly one week. Kevin Porter Jr. is also out tonight and Kyle Kuzma is questionable. Losing Giannis for what could be up to a week plus KPJ and Kuzma for tonight would be a major blow to Milwaukee who is just 29-41 on the season and 13-22 away from home.

Milwaukee’s lack of health also works in L.A.’s favor from a recent-form perspective. The Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 138-131 overtime victory at Dallas on Saturday night. They got 41 points and 11 assists from Darius Garland and 34 points from Kawhi Leonard while shooting 56.7% from the floor and 21-of-42 from deep. This matters because the Clippers offense may have finally woken up before the season ended and if that momentum can carry at home versus Milwaukee, the Bucks may have a tough time keeping up.

Milwaukee did find ways to beat Phoenix 108-105 on Saturday without Giannis so this is not the spot to completely write off the Bucks. However, Milwaukee won that game in a tight fashion and even then the offense still had to feast off of role players such as Ryan Rollins. Not having Giannis, KPJ and Kuzma or Kuzma limited is a scary proposition for Bucks fans. Going on the road and having to keep within two possessions of a Clippers team that still has the playoffs on their mind is a tall task.

My cleanest cover script for this game is the Clippers’ healthier core provides them more efficient offense and Milwaukee can’t create enough top-end scoring without Giannis. The game gets away from Milwaukee even faster if Kuzma is limited or ruled out of the game. One final wrinkle to keep an eye on: Kawhi Leonard is a game time decision so we’ll know closer to tip which direction this leans. If he plays, the cover side of the Clippers is much stronger in my opinion.

Jim's Play: 550. Clippers

Florida’s ability to cover is primarily because they are coming off one of the most dominant wins in first round tournament history. The Gators obliterated Prairie View A&M 114-55. That’s right, Florida won by 59 points, which was the second-largest margin of victory in NCAA tournament history. Florida shot the ball remarkably well at 64.3% from the field while dominating the rebounding margin 54-20. Seven different players scored in double figures highlighting both their efficiency and overall depth.

Speaking of balance, Florida isn’t beating teams by having just one player will everything on their shoulders. They aren’t leaning on Anthony Black to shoot them to victory, nor are they depending solely on James Martinez Jr.’s defense. Reuben Chinyelu posted a double-double against Prairie View A&M while Boogie Fland scored efficiently and Thomas Haugh facilitated at a high level. That balance matters because it means teams can’t game plan against just one Florida player for 40 minutes.

Iowa beat Clemson 67-61 in the first round so they are no cupcake. But the style of victory should concern betting on the Hawkeyes to keep things close. Iowa beat Clemson by dominating the rebounding margin and slowing the game down to a crawl. Iowa scored just 67 points against Clemson, which will be a completely different task when matched up with Florida’s ability to bury teams with size and constant scoring.

This is also as simple as tournament paths. Iowa was able to sneak in as a 9-seed despite only having a good season as opposed to a great one. Florida is the defending national champion and 1-seed in this pod. Current betting lines account for that and Florida’s blowout win on Friday night only adds to the case that they can cover this spread.

Florida posting another strong box score like Friday night’s should be enough to cash this ticket. Keep Iowa in games for stretches they will, but Florida has too much size, depth, and talent to let this one stay close.

Jim's Play: 812. Florida  

Wake Forest didn’t exactly dominate its opening NIT game. Over Navy, the Deacons won 82-72 win but the recap specifically noted that Wake wasn’t especially sharp early on and the energy level was “non-existent” before things clicked. That matters when your second round opponent is significantly tougher because you can’t afford to play down to your competition if you want to cover more than two possessions.

Illinois State also likes the way the game shakes out matchup wise. Wake took care of Illinois State’s Kent State in the opening round, so by virtue of Sunday both teams have essentially played each other. Sunday’s game naturally shapes up to be more competitive than the opening round tilt, and the line confirms that theory. Yes, Wake is the better team and has the clear advantage at home but to open up at -7.5 implies Illinois State is respected enough to hang around for most of the game instead of just surviving.

Also, remember, Illinois State is catching 7.5 points against a clearly average Wake Forest team that won just 18 games during the regular season. Home court and conference bias will get you to something like -6 or -6.5 pretty easily, but once you push past two full possessions against essentially nothing that often creates value on the dog, particularly in the NIT where fight and tempo often determine games just as much as raw athleticism.

Cleanest cover script here is simple: ISU keeps the game in check, prevents Wake Forest from getting out in transition and makes the final eight minutes a possession game. Wake should still win but Illinois State has enough value at +7.5 to remain on the right side of the number.

Jim's Play: 825. Illinois St (NIT 2nd Round Game of the Year)

I’ll be playing Vandy here Saturday against Nebraska as my 2nd Round Game of the Year. First of all, just take a look at the number. Nebraska gets seeded No. 4 here, but Vanderbilt is the No. 5 seed coming in at 27-8 against Nebraska’s 27-6 record, so we’re not talking about this being a huge class-gap matchup. CBS’s preview of the game calls this a close second-round game between two teams with very similar records – exactly what you look for when wanting to take the points.

In Vanderbilt’s first-round win against McNeese, they shot 51% from the field, got 26 points from Tyler Tanner, and got solid scoring from Devin McGlockton, Duke Miles, and Tyler Nickel to pull away late. Reuters discussed how Vanderbilt was able to handle McNeese’s pressure well enough before separating late with smooth offense and excellent ball movement. If a team can score that efficiently against anyone then they are dangerous as a short underdog.

Also lending value to Vanderbilt covering the spread is the fact that Nebraska might be coming off one of those giant emotional let loose type of wins that actually make your next game more difficult. The Cornhuskers just picked up their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory on Saturday, pulling away from Troy 76-47. Reuters said it was a “first win ever in school history” that finally ended Nebraska’s 0-8 NCAA Tournament streak. A win like that is monumental for a program, and Nebraska will have a tough time matching that same level of emotion, just 48 hours later against a vastly superior opponent.

Speaking of superior opponents, the matchup looks even closer when you consider how both teams got to this point. Nebraska blasted Troy, but Troy shot only 28.3% from the floor and made Nebraska’s life fairly easy on offense. Vanderbilt meanwhile dealt with a McNeese team that made them turn the ball over and get crushed on the offensive boards, yet the Commodores still came away with the win by 10 points because they were the more efficient team and took care of the ball. That should allow Vanderbilt to weather Nebraska’s initial attack and keep this game in one- or two-possession territory for long periods of time.

Finally, there’s just something to be said about Vanderbilt’s style of play on offense Saturday against McNeese. The Commodores showed that they can still win even when the opposition outdoes them in hustle stats like defensive rebounds and steals because they made their shots and took care of the ball. Nebraska played great against Troy, tallying 20 assists on 28 field goals and only coughing the ball up six times, but asking them to play that efficiently against a better offensive team with more athletes is asking a lot. If Nebraska plays even just slightly below their potential on offense then this spread gets very difficult to cover.

Put it all together and you get this: Vanderbilt is a dangerous 5-seed that scored in bunches Saturday against a quality team while Nebraska is likely getting too many points coming off a once-in-a-lifetime kind of win for them. Take Vandy against the number here. 

Jim's Play: 781. Vanderbilt (NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year)

Michigan State might just need a semi-average performance to cover the spread against Louisville on Saturday. The Spartans hold a manageable number while the game flows into their core competencies. Lines are hovering around Michigan State -4.5 with an O/U of 151, which means they don’t need to blow out Louisville, just keep a game within reach while their size and physicality matter.

The rebounding and points in the paint battle will heavily favor Michigan State. The Spartans crushed North Dakota State 92-67 in the opening round while shooting 58.9% and recording 26 assists on 33 made field goals. Carson Cooper posted 20 points and 10 rebounds while Jaxon Kohler dropped 12 points and nine rebounds, showing how smoothly their frontcourt can move the ball. Against Louisville, that advantage could be huge. 

Pick your weakness for Louisville, and Michigan State probably has a strength to counter it. Louisville eked out a close win against South Florida, 83-79, while coughing up a 22-point lead, committing a season-high 22 turnovers, and showing signs of struggle in the second half as the game turned ugly. South Florida scored 44 points in the paint versus Louisville, which could come back to bite the Cardinals against a bigger, stronger Michigan State team that wants to attack the rim.

Experience could matter as well. Michigan State wasn’t really challenged in the opening round, while Louisville had to weather some late foul trouble and almost let a huge lead slip away. The Cardinals will be without Mikel Brown Jr., while this Ryan Conwell took some nasty shots against South Florida. Against a team like Tom Izzo’s that can throw lots of fresh bodies at you and bully you inside, both of those factors could be relevant.

Michigan State wins the battle on the glass, forces Louisville’s turnovers to hurt them again, and grinds down its taller opponent with a deeper bench. The game won’t feel as close as the spread makes it out to be.

Jim's Play: 774. Michigan State 

Northern Iowa is the team I'm looking at here Friday for my NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year.  You’ll see Northern Iowa listed around +9.5 right now while the total is being pushed down toward 131.5. That’s key because when the number is this low, possessions are more valuable, and it’s more difficult for the favorite to pull away. A spread around 10 points in a game that’s being lined in the low 130s automatically grants some inherent value to the underdog.

Style of play is the biggest reason why UNI will stay close. Northern Iowa plays at a slow pace, and several of the current game previews specifically mention the Panthers’ pack-line defense and methodical pace. One site projected UNI to play at just 65.3 possessions per game, which gets at why pace-of-play matters in these discussions. If the game features few possessions, it naturally benefits the underdog because there are fewer opportunities for the favorite to build a gap.

On top of playing slow, Northern Iowa can keep things close defensively. A New York Post preview says that the Panthers allow only 61.3 points per game, while another preview called UNI 24th in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to under 29% from three-point range. Against a St. John’s team that thrives on rhythm and momentum, that lets UNI dictate the game’s pace and force it into a grinder.

Conference and tournament history further favors UNI because of how Ben Jacobson wants his team to play. St. John’s own preview mentioned that UNI is known as “a sneaky dangerous NCAA tournament team” before citing multiple tournament upsets by the Panthers. History doesn’t predict the future, of course, but that dovetails with the pace argument by suggesting that Northern Iowa isn’t a timid 12-seed that will fold under pressure.

Nothing about this analysis is meant to undermine how good St. John’s is or that they shouldn’t be favored. The Red Storm are 28-6 overall, won the Big East regular season and tournament championships, and have gone 19-1 since January 3 according to their preview. They’re more than earned that line. 

Game script is a silent assassin for UNI as well. If the Panthers lose, they’ll probably lose by forcing St. John’s to play keep-away on offense. The Red Storm win by dominating the inside, taking few threes, and imposing their will in the second half. Against a team like Northern Iowa that forces opponents to grind out every bucket, it’s hard to envision St. John’s pulling away by more than a few points.

UNI covers by playing low-tempo basketball, frustrating opponents with its half-court defense, keeping opponents off the three-point line, and keeping the overall possession count down. They might not win, but that keeps the score closer than this spread indicates. Think matchup-adjusted true contests, not blowouts. 

Jim's Play: 765. Northern Iowa (NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year)

Liberty has every reason to think it can cover +5.5 against George Mason in the NIT first round as this has more potential to be a grinder than a game with wide separation. ESPN is listing George Mason -5.5 with the total somewhere in the 143.5 to 144.5 range, and that type of number is in danger when one team consistently plays a disciplined, low mistake game like Liberty.

The first reason why Liberty can stay within the number is simply because of its overall body of work. Liberty comes into the game at 25-7 and finished first in Conference USA while George Mason sits at 23-9 and finished fifth in the A-10. This is not a class-gap matchup by any means. Liberty also travels well as the Flames are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 road games, which is important when an underdog catches multiple possessions on the road.

Liberty also has the better offensive profile of the two teams. The Flames are averaging approximately 78.2 points per game while George Mason puts up only 73.3 points per contest. On a night where every possession should count, Liberty having a little bit more juice offensively makes the Flames underdog more live to hang around, especially if the Patriots find themselves forced to score in the half court.

The defense of George Mason is obviously the strength of the favorite as it allows only 67.5 points per game, but that stat actually helps the cover case more than it hurts it. Favorites that win with defense and control instead of explosive offense become much harder to generate separation against. If George Mason dictates tempo, this should be a lower-possession game, and lower-possession games inherently favor the side taking points.

Liberty also comes into this having found some great form late. The Flames are on a roll heading into this game closing on a five-game win streak with wins over Middle Tennessee State, Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State. Meanwhile, George Mason just lost 63-57 to St. Bonaventure in the A-10 Tournament. This does not mean Mason cannot win this game, but it does mean Liberty will likely roll in better rhythm.

Finally, this matchup profiles nicely for a backdoor cover even if George Mason ends up controlling long stretches of gameplay. Liberty has a number of efficient scorers including Darius McGhee, who is averaging 16.8 points per game on 50.3%/48.1% shooting and Nendhal Phifer at 13.4 points per game. Additionally, guard Bryson Grudger offers versatility averaging 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists. This type of balance allows the Flames to answer any scoring runs with enough shot-making to stay within two possessions late in the game.

George Mason will likely win this game as favorites do at home, but the overall profile of this game says it shouldn’t be won by much. Liberty has better offense, plays well away from home, and catches enough points in what projects to be a low-scoring game controlled by defenses. Those are all recipes for an underdog cash.

Jim's Play: 665. Liberty (NIT 1st Round Game of the Year)

Grand Canyon has decent juice to lay here simply because we’re pretty much expecting a toss-up game here. Nevada is not being tasked with putting this game away. The line opened around Grand Canyon -2.5 and currently sits at -3.5.  Moving the game to a neutral floor is probably the biggest reason to jump on Grand Canyon right now. Nevada did defeat GCU 66-60 in overtime back on Jan. 28 at Reno. However, now you’re taking away Nevada’s home-court advantage. If we’re talking about a rematch that came down to one possession after 40 minutes, removing one team’s advantage makes Grand Canyon a much more appealing play.

History between these teams plays a role too. As mentioned before, this game went to OT last time these two played, which means Grand Canyon can at least hang with Nevada even if things aren’t clicking offensively for them. When games are this close, usually laying a short number with the team getting the better venue is the better play.

The only thing that gives me pause here is injury news, as Wilhelm Breidenbach will be out for Grand Canyon. However, the market has already factored that known injury into keeping GCU as favorites, so I think bettors view the Lopes as the slight favorite in this game regardless.

Overall, Grand Canyon’s strongest argument for covering this spot is simple; this game was fairly even when it was in Reno and now moves to a neutral floor while the spread is just one basket. That screams “Lopes can win.” 

Jim's Play:  764. Grand Canyon (MTN West Tourney Game of the Year)

Tulane makes a lot of sense to back here because I just don’t think that number is very big. The line opened Memphis -3.5 and has stayed there, which means the Green Wave just need to play a competitive game on a neutral floor in Birmingham. It’s significant that the teams finished with identical 8-10 AAC records too, and the market even jumped a point toward Tulane from the opener.

The biggest reason to like Tulane may be just how the last meeting went. Back on March 8, Memphis barely escaped with a 96-95 overtime victory against Tulane after the Green Wave erased a nine-point deficit in the final 2:27 of regulation. Tulane even led 40-31 at halftime. This isn’t quite as clear cut of a favorite-underdog battle as the number suggests. If Tulane could almost knock off Memphis three days ago, keeping this one within one or two possessions is realistic.

Plus, familiarity works in Tulane’s favor as well. This is already the third meeting between these two teams this season and conference rematches like this often tighten up because both staffs are so familiar with the opponent’s sets, personnel and tendencies. In tourney games, familiarity usually favors the underdog more than the favorite, especially when the spread is this small. Tulane does not need to outplay Memphis for 40 minutes. It just needs to keep things close, and we’ve already seen it do that.

I may still think Memphis is the more likely winner of this game, but Tulane +3.5 is a number I can get behind because the teams split conference games, the last meeting went to OT, and I expect this neutral-floor rematch to be close once again. This feels like a one-possession game more than a Memphis cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 693. Tulane (American Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

I'm going to the Extra board for my Conference Tourney Game of the Year here on Tuesday as Mercyhurst and Long Island meet in the Northeast conference Championship game.  Mercyhurst has is the side I'm looking at here plus the points. The number isn’t astronomical yet at +5.5 to +6.5, and the Lakers already showed they could defeat LIU outright. They defeated the Sharks 91-83 in their last meeting on February 21, so we’re not looking at a situation where LIU mauled Mercyhurst last time out.

In fact, that game illustrated how Mercyhurst can win again. The Lakers forced LIU into turnovers and capitalized on their opponent’s mistakes by scoring 20 points on 13 LIU turnovers during the upset. When playing in a spread, turnovers like those matter because forcing extra possessions is one of the easiest ways for an underdog to keep the score close enough to the line to win without needing an outright victory.

There’s even motivation to consider on Mercyhurst’s side. LIU has already clinched the NEC’s spot in the NCAA tournament thanks to Mercyhurst’s ineligibility while transitioning to Division I, so there isn’t as much fight-to-the-death incentive on the line for the Sharks in this game. LIU will certainly try to win, but part of the motivation is gone and that can allow an underdog to stick around longer than normal.

LIU may be the better team too, but these two have been competitive recently. LIU’s overall record of 23-10 is better than Mercyhurst’s at 17-16, but their all-time series record is tied at 2-2 in the last two seasons. LIU won both of their meetings at home, but Mercyhurst won both games on its home floor as well. Even if LIU is the better team, these two match up closely and haven’t covered much of a gap in the head-to-head over their last few meetings.

LIU is more likely to win this game at home, but Mercyhurst has a definite profile to play this spread based on having already beaten this team once, creating turnover-based offense in that game, and getting enough points to work with while LIU’s NCAA tournament destiny has already been decided.

Jim's Play: 551. Mercyhurst (Northeast Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi deserves some consideration here because both the matchup and the tournament scenario favor the Islanders. The number is getting pushed around -2.5 only.  Corpus Christi finished ahead of New Orleans in the Southland regular-season standings by going 17-14 overall and 13-9 in conference compared to the Privateers’ 15-17 and 12-10.

Perhaps even more importantly, Corpus Christi has the advantage of rest. The Islanders were granted a first-round bye in the conference tournament while New Orleans advanced to Monday by beating Houston Christian 73-60 on Sunday. In a conference tournament, that extra day of rest can make a significant difference in such a close matchup.

Adding more fuel to Corpus Christi’s fire, they won the first meeting between these two teams. They split their regular-season meetings with the Islanders, but beat New Orleans at home 83-69 on December 31 while the only loss came in overtime at New Orleans on February 9, 84-78. Take that as evidence that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi already proved they could beat New Orleans by double digits this season. The only loss was a close game that went into OT.

Even that close loss paints a picture that tilts the field towards Corpus Christi. Texas A&M had advantages in the paint (40-32), fast-break points (21-8), and bench points (25-16). Those categories typically travel well during tournament play as they demonstrate strengths like athleticism, depth, and easy buckets.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi even holds a slight edge over recent form. The Islanders won three of their last four regular-season games to close the year with quality wins over East Texas A&M, Northwestern State, and Southeastern Louisiana while New Orleans lost to Southeastern Louisiana and McNeese just before the tournament began.

My final thought is that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is in a great spot to cover a small number here. They’re the fresher team, finished better in the Southland regular-season standings, have already beaten New Orleans by 14 points, and only need to win by a possession or two to cover.

Jim's Play: Take: 544. Texas AM Corpus (Southland Conf Game of the Year)

anta Clara can easily cover the spread against Pacific because they’ve already played one-sided games twice this season. Broncos won against Tigers 85-69 on January 14 and then again 71-56 on February 4, so they are 2-0 against Pacific this year and have already covered numbers close to or exceeding what the current line is set at. 

Santa Clara also holds a major edge in matchup history. Pacific lost 10 out of their last 11 games against Santa Clara and in both of those wins the Broncos dominated because they are simply the better offensive team. Santa Clara got 18 points from Christian Hammond and 17 points from Allen Graves in January, while in February the Broncos had four players score in double figures. Santa Clara does not need one player to shoot well to win this game.

Pacific also faces some situational disadvantages as well. The Tigers had to battle on Saturday and won 61-58 against Seattle just to get to this point, while Santa Clara came into this tournament as the No. 3 seed and will have fresher legs. Having an advantage in rest vs your opponent in conference tournament games matters. It matters a lot when your favorite also holds the roster advantage and has already solved their opponent twice.

Jim's Play: 820. Santa Clara (West Coast Quarterfinals)

Charlotte covering starts with recent trends as to how both teams have played against the spread. The Hornets are scorching at the window right now with a 9-0 ATS run and have also won 5-0 ATS in their last five at home. Miami, on the other hand, has been unable to cover at home recently: 1-5 ATS in their last six road trips against Charlotte, while Charlotte owns the 5-1 mark ATS in the last six meetings at home. Playing against the number in your building and owning those kinds of numbers is always important.

Depth is also an interesting story here. Per the NBA’s official injury report for game-day, Charlotte is coping with end-of-bench/G-League type losses along with Tidjane Salaun sidelined due to a calf injury. Miami’s report had not yet been submitted at the time of that report coming out, but several injury/tracker sites have shown Miami missing/playing through rotation players ahead of this matchup (Simone Fontecchio and Nikola Jovic have been listed as out for a lot of previews). Those kinds of injuries tend to show up late in games when you need contributions from the perimeter.

Charlotte has played confident basketball as of late, they’ve been steady at home with the number and Miami has struggled in this building to get any kind of cushion. If Charlotte plays physical, controls the boards and doesn’t turn the ball over live-ball to give Miami momentum, they will stay close for four quarters and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 502. Hornets (Southeast Div Game of the Month)

Iowa is a live cover against Michigan on Thursday because the matchup and the spot both work in the Hawkeyes’ favor, especially if you’re getting around +8.5 to +9.5 points. Michigan is the better team, but this sets up like a classic “win but don’t margin” game: the Wolverines have already clinched the Big Ten title, and this road trip functions more like a tune-up than a must-have, which can show up as flatter defensive urgency once they get a lead. Add in that Michigan is also playing without L.J. Cason (out for the season), which chips away at guard depth and ball-handling in a road environment where every empty possession matters.

From a style standpoint, Iowa’s slower tempo is exactly what an underdog wants when trying to cover a big number. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for a superior team to create separation, and it keeps the game in that “trade baskets, stay within 6–10” range deep into the second half. Iowa also has the home-court edge at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and even in a season where they’ve been inconsistent, that building tends to help role players shoot and defend with more confidence, which is often the difference between losing by 6 and losing by 14.

The cover path is pretty straightforward: Iowa controls pace, avoids long scoring droughts, and makes Michigan execute in the half court instead of giving up transition runs. If the Hawkeyes can keep the first 10 minutes competitive and stay out of serious foul trouble, they don’t need to “outplay” Michigan for 40 minutes - they just need to prevent the one knockout stretch. With a spread hovering near nine, that’s a very realistic script for Iowa to hang around and cash the ticket even if Michigan still gets the win.

Jim's Play: 768. Iowa  (Big 10 Game of the Year)

I like Cincinnati to cover here on Tuesady at home against BYU in tis Big 12 conference game. The lines on this game are aligning perfectly for the Bearcats: they’re playing as the hotter team, they’re at home, and BYU is coming off of a significant loss to their regular lineup. Right now, the market has Cincy (-1.5, total 152.5) as a slight favorite in a game that’s going to be toss-up regardless, which sets up beautifully for home-court advantage and defense to win out.

Defense/sizing is Cincinnati’s biggest advantage over BYU. Cincy has been solid defensively all season long (17th in defensive efficiency) and their frontcourt is scheme-friendly to protect the rim and make shots difficult without fouling opponents, which is huge against BYU who’ve struggled to manufacture offense  without Richie Saunders (season-ending knee injury Feb. 14). Cincinnati is the hotter team entering this matchup as well, as they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games including an impressive win over Oklahoma State at home (91–68), particularly in Big 12 road games where they’re 7–2 at home. Scoring-wise, the Bearcats have benefited from burying threes in their last few games (they’ve hit 11+ 3-pointers in multiple games this stretch including 14 vs Oklahoma State), so if Cincinnati can shoot “normally” from deep at Fifth Third Arena, they’ll cruise to a 3–8 point victory that covers the spread.

Jim's Play: 610. Cincinnati (Big 12 Game of the Year)

Detroit should cover -7.5 against Cleveland on Friday, Feb. 27, 2026 because this matchup is shaping up as a significant depth and availability issue for the Cavs. Donovan Mitchell is OUT for Cleveland per the official NBA injury report with a groin strain, while Darius Garland is OUT, James Harden is questionable with a thumb fracture and other rotation pieces like Dennis Schröder and Keon Ellis are questionable as well. Depth doesn’t matter against any team, but it’s especially crucial when you play against one of the league’s best because Cleveland’s formula for keeping games within reach typically involves having enough on-ball creation to minimize long scoring droughts. Without Mitchell and Garland and if Harden is limited or inactive, Cleveland will need its patchwork guard rotation to generate offense on the road,  a scenario that historically leads to empty possessions and low-quality looks at the basket.

Detroit also comes into this game with both recent form and identity that bettors can trust to carry over to covers as a favorite: they’re 43-14 overall while playing elite defense, and they defeated Oklahoma City 124-116 behind two efficient outings from Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, showing that they can score on quality opponents as well. Plus, while I’m admittedly hesitant to lay points indiscriminately, the Pistons have gone 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games, so they’ve been meeting or exceeding expectations for the majority of their schedule. Bring it all together and the “cover script” for this game is pretty straightforward: Detroit’s D forces Cleveland into longer, more difficult possessions, the Cavs’ depleted backcourt can’t keep up and Detroit’s consistent offense finds ways to create separation down the stretch even if the game is close to start.

Jim's Play: 556. Pistons (NBA Central Div Game of the Month)

I like Minnesota to cover against Portland on Tuesday for a few reasons. First, this is the perfect bounce-back spot against a Blazers team that not only looks like they’re on upset alert but could very well be without a key rotation player. Recent news coming out of Portland has revealed Deni Avdija was ruled out for tonight’s game with a back issue. Avdija is a big part of their scoring and playmaking abilities as well as two-way balance, so Minnesota should have a slight advantage if they’re without him. Minnesota also dropped a tough one to Philadelphia on Monday, so Wolves-specific sites around the state have been advertising tonight’s game against Portland as must-win with an emphasis on defensive focus/urgency. This quickly turning into a tight Western Conference playoff race, Cover against Portland tonight and reset the challenge. Finally, Minnesota can actually cover the point spread based on recent meetings. The Wolves beat Portland 133-109 back on Feb. 11 and have won the first two contests against Portland this season, showing they can absolutely explode for wins when their offense is clicking. Road favorites are never guarantees, but if Minnesota limits their opponents on the perimeter, controls the boards, and exploit Portland’s weaker rotation, the Wolves will cover on Tuesday. 

Jim's Play: 521. Timberwolves (NBA Northwest Game of the Month)

It’s tough to confidently take Rutgers against Washington straight up, but the Scarlet Knights can cover the spread tonight because I think this has the setup of a competitive home game in Piscataway. We’re looking at a number around +4.5 to +5.5, which will give Rutgers some breathing room in what I expect to be a relatively close game. Washington is getting listed as just a slight road favorite at multiple books/previews, with totals around 140.5 to 142.5, and those games usually come down to a few possessions late with the dog cashing.

That slight tilt towards the Huskies is the first reason to back Rutgers on the line. Home court matters, and this is clearly being portrayed as a huge game for Rutgers’ conference positioning coming into Jersey Mike’s Arena. Local media is preaching to the Scarlet Knights that they need to win this game to keep pace and referring to tonight as their opportunity to bounce back from that road setback. Plus, when spreads are this short, crowd advantages matter more than ever in a Big Ten game where tempo will likely come down and possessions will be at a premium.

Speaking of betting previews, another reason to think Rutgers is live to cover tonight is recent ATS trend support. Rutgers has gone over the spread in 10 of its last 14 games. While they haven’t racked up many wins straight up, recent history shows games have been closer than expected when betting on Rutgers and that means the market may not have fully caught up to them just yet. That is exactly the betting profile you want to see when rooting for a home dog.

Last but not least, that total helps Rutgers’ chances to cover as well. The lower total obviously means fewer possessions and less of a chance for Washington to blow the game open. If Rutgers can avoid big scoring droughts, limit turnovers, and keep Washington out of the gym on easy transition baskets, they can keep it close enough to hang around inside the number late and win the game outright.

Jim's Play: 602. Rutgers (Big 10 Game of the Month)

Portland can legitimately cover the spread on Sunday versus Phoenix as the Suns are quickly becoming depleted on the backcourt and wing positions. Phoenix suffered a loss to Dillon Brooks who suffered a fractured left hand on Saturday night and is expected to miss an extended amount of time. Devin Booker will miss at least one week due to a hip strain. Booker and Brooks combine for 53 points per game and taking them out of the Suns lineup drastically reduces their scoring ability and shot creation. This also plays more into Portland’s hands considering Phoenix played in double overtime just 24 hours earlier against Orlando.

For Portland’s side of things, covering isn’t rocket science: they don’t need to play perfect basketball, they simply need to avoid getting blown out by a Phoenix team without its two best scorers. Spot-wise, available matchup listings have Portland at 27-30 while Phoenix is 33-24, meaning we’re not at a talent disparity where a shorthanded favorite should automatically run away with the game. Portland is not healthy either, but the key swing factor is that Deni Avdija is only questionable on their injury report. While there’s no guarantee that Avdija plays, it at least gives the Blazers a chance at having another playmaker on the floor. The Blazers can more than likely replace Avdija’s production between themselves, but Phoenix losing Booker/Brooks is considerably harder to overcome.

Game script is the biggest angle in this one as the factors above lean towards this not being a blowout in favor of Phoenix. The Suns losing so much scoring, combined with playing heavy minutes just 24 hours earlier against Orlando, means that Portland has a chance to hang around in this game. The longer it stays close, the better Portland’s chances are at covering the spread. An underscored game favors the underdog as every possession counts more, and if Portland knocks down some timely threes, they can keep the scoreboard within reach. If Portland plays efficiently with the basketball and its best players produce, the Blazers have a chance to cover and even outright win this game.

Jim's Play: 567. Trailblazers 

I like the big dog here on Saturday as Wyoming getting about nine-points at Grand Canyon. The Cowboys can lean on enough offense to keep games within reach as long as they don’t suffer extended scoring droughts. Most books have Wyoming around +9  which allows them to lose by a couple possessions and still hit. Wyoming has the scoring profile to thrive on that kind of ticket as well, averaging right at 78.0 points per game while Grand Canyon’s offense is more middling (about 75.2 ppg) and relies more on defense than simply exploding for separation. That’s key because while Grand Canyon has been strong overall, they have not been automatic against the number with recent ATS tendencies and home/favorite ATS splits painting a more mediocre picture. There’s even a slight situational play on Wyoming as a road dog as well: while the Cowboys have been atrocious on the road, their formula for success is simple in a game with a mid-140s total, as some made threes and generally playing at a slower pace can prevent the deficit from becoming insurmountable. Grand Canyon is obviously very good at home so there is risk, but if Wyoming takes care of the basketball and gets even game from its primary scorers, I’m liking +8.5 Wyoming.

Jim's Play: 775. Wyoming (Mountain West Game of the Month)

Saint Louis presents themselves as a strong candidate to bet on Friday as this matchup hits many “win by margin” boxes at home. The Billikens are sitting at about 7.5 points at Chaifetz Arena and have already proved they can deal with VCU’s pressure and athleticism by winning game one 71–62 on the road back on January 7th. With that proof of concept already out of the way, the cover path looks pretty clean: SLU has more ways to score and has been the more consistent team all season (they’re 24-2 entering this game while VCU is 21-6) so if Saint Louis plays to their capabilities they don’t need to shoot efficiently to create a separation. The market total is also high (mid 160s), which usually means pace/possessions; more possessions = better team offense with more shot creators pulls away late especially at home when runs are easier to come by and the whistle/energy typically favors the home team. Finally, VCU lives by the three and volume shooting from the perimeter, so if SLU can chase them off the line and force a couple empty trips early the Rams’ scoring can become very streaky, which leads to covers in the final minutes of close games (8-12 point win).

Jim's Play: 888. St Louis 

I like Santa Clara at home on Saturday night against their WCC foe, Gonzaga.  The biggest reason Santa Clara can hang is home-court + current form. The Broncos have been undefeated at home this season (13-0) and they’re coming in on a long conference surge with the league lead in hand. When a team is protecting its building like that, getting 4-ish points becomes attractive because they don’t need to dominate Gonzaga for 40 minutes. They just need to keep it within a possession or two and be live late, which is exactly what an unbeaten home profile suggests.

Matchup-wise, Santa Clara’s cover lane is that they’re built to score with balance and spacing, not just one hot hand. Gonzaga’s ceiling is higher inside (they proved it in the first meeting), but Santa Clara can keep pace by turning this into a game where both teams are trading quality looks instead of letting Gonzaga dictate everything at the rim. Gonzaga won the earlier matchup 89-77 in Spokane, so the Broncos have a very clear “what needs to change” blueprint: cleaner perimeter defense, fewer empty possessions, and more efficiency from their own shooters at home.

Another underrated angle is game-state pressure. This isn’t a random mid-February game. It’s a first-place West Coast Conference showdown with real stakes, and Santa Clara is playing to hold the top spot in front of its crowd. Those spots tend to compress margins because both teams shorten rotations, possessions get more deliberate late, and you see fewer “sleepwalk” stretches. That usually favors the team catching points, especially at home.

How Santa Clara covers: they avoid giving up a string of rim runs and offensive rebounds, they hit enough threes to prevent Gonzaga from loading up inside, and they keep it in a one- or two-possession game heading into the final media timeout. If that happens, +4.5 is live the whole way, and the moneyline upset is absolutely on the table in a game that’s already priced as “close.”

Jim's Play: 786. Santa Clara ( West Coast Conf Game of the Year) 

Drexel is in a strong spot to win and cover tonight because the matchup checks three boxes that matter for laying a small number at home: recent head-to-head proof, home-court form, and a clear efficiency edge when they get clean looks. We already saw how these teams match up when Drexel is sharp. In the first meeting on January 15, Drexel blew the doors off Monmouth 73-51. The box score tells you why that kind of result is repeatable: Drexel got efficient shooting (15 made threes), moved the ball (18 assists), and Monmouth couldn’t generate easy offense (32% overall shooting). Even if Monmouth plays better tonight (likely), that first game shows Drexel has a style edge when they can set their defense and force Monmouth into tougher half-court possessions.

The “how Drexel covers” path is pretty clean. Monmouth’s recent preview notes they’re coming off a road win at Stony Brook and they’ve been active defensively (season-high steals in that game), with Jason Rivera-Torres as the headliner. That’s exactly why Drexel’s ball security and shot selection matter: if Drexel avoids live-ball turnovers, Monmouth loses the easiest way to score and has to grind for buckets. In a tight spread game, cutting off transition points is often the difference between winning by 1-2 possessions versus sweating it out.

Game script to like: Drexel starts better at home, makes Monmouth work in the half court, and hits enough perimeter shots to prevent Monmouth’s pressure from turning into momentum runs. If Drexel plays anything close to the efficiency they showed in the first meeting, they’re the side more likely to finish the last 4 minutes cleaner.

Jim's Play: 752. Drexel  (CAA Game of the Month)

I’m taking Oklahoma State to cover (and outright win) tonight for three primary reasons. The first two deal with controlling the game’s “math”: extra possessions + minimizing mistakes.  Oklahoma State comes into this game with the superior overall record (16-7 vs 12-12) and have proven they can score at will on the road, averaging 84.8 points per game. That’s important when you’re catching a short number like +2.5 or +3 because you don’t need to be perfect, just enough to keep it within one- or two-possession range for 40 minutes.

There are a few reasons Oklahoma State can effectively implement that game plan but the biggest edge on paper is on the glass. Several previews I’ve read have harped on Arizona State’s atrocious rebounding, which presents a “low variance” opportunity for Oklahoma State as the underdog. Meaning you can be a little off from behind the arc and still stay in games by grabbing offensive rebounds and preventing the same from Cowboys.  If Oklahoma State makes this a possession game (end defensive possessions with rebounds and create extra possessions with offensive boards) covering becomes likely and an outright win isn’t out of the question.

The second reason stems from the ball security and execution factor late in games. Take a look at Oklahoma State’s notes on freshman point guard Kanye Clary.

First-Year Freshman PG, more assists than turnovers in 20 consecutive games, intelligent playmaking and lack of turnovers is invaluable when you’re backing a short dog on the road. He cuts into live-ball turnovers (freely given gifts to the defense), runouts, and forces ASU to be cleaner with the ball when the game slows down late. All of that negates what Arizona State wants to do: get out and score in transition. The Sun Devils have been elite at it, too, ranking near the top of the nation in fast-break points per game. If Oklahoma State forces ASU to play half-court basketball, the spread jumps out at you.

Why I like Oklahoma State to cover the spread: Arizona State is laying points AT HOME (yeah, seriously) against a team that has been more competitive in conference play than them. Arizona State is sitting at 3-8 while Oklahoma State’s Big 12 record is much stronger. When you have a game setup like this I want the team that can win the possession battle AND limit “snowball” stretches of games. Oklahoma State has check both of those boxes tonight.

Oklahoma State can win this game outright if they come out +0.5 or better on the rebounding column, limit turnovers, and prevent ASU from getting easy buckets in transition. If they do that, they’ll be right in the game with a chance to win in the last 4 minutes, and when you’re getting points in sports betting, that’s exactly where you want to be.

Jim's Play: 629. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Game of the Month)

Alabama feels like a solid cover play in the Iron Bowl of Basketball. The market seems to view Auburn’s home-court advantage as what’s separating the teams in what’s otherwise priced as a near coin-flip game. You’ll see most boards listing Auburn around -2.5 to -3 with an absurd total (~174.5), and that spread TOTAL combination is key here: when you’re expecting a game to be played in the high 70s/80s, each point of the spread matters more because scoring swings can come in bunches. If Alabama is able to play the game at its preferred tempo and get its typical three-point attempts per game, they don’t need to “control” the entire game to cover by 3. They just need to stay within striking distance and limit the one deadly 10–0 Auburn run that’ll swing a one-possession game into a two-score blowout.

The matchup on paper even provides Alabama a path to a “clean” cover if Auburn technically outgrips them in most statistical categories. Extra possessions (offensive boards, free throws) and capitalizing on Alabama mistakes is Auburn’s best chance to cover, but this is SEC basketball during rivalry week, we know games like this will tighten up in the late periods and turn into a knock-down, drag-out shot-making affair. Alabama has proved they can win those situations this season (they’re coming off a statement win against Texas A&M), their spacing/pace forces Auburn to defend on the perimeter for long stretches at a time (limiting the “easy” buckets favorites need to protect small spreads), and Auburn has played great basketball over the past month but still employs a roster full of transfers. Translation: teams with tons of transfers can go up and down in games like this when things get run-and-gun and emotional. All things considered, if this thing stays the track meet we’re expecting based on the total, Alabama’s ability to create shots/quick burst scoring makes +2.5/+3 a very juicy ticket — and if Auburn wins by 1-3 points at home, that’s exactly how this game will finish and cash the Tide.

Jim's Play: 701. Alabama (SEC Game of the Month)

Cal Poly is a decent cover play (+1.5 or +2 are the best numbers I’m seeing widely available) because the matchup lends itself to a low-scoring, high-possession affair where a home dog simply doesn’t need to be “better,” it just needs to hang around. Cal Poly ranks No. 2 in the country in KenPom’s pace metric, meaning games tend to be faster when they’re on the floor. Faster games lead to more variance as there are more scoring swings which benefits the team getting points. Throw in the fact Cal Poly is rolling on offense right now (scoring 104 and 94 in their last two victories) and they’ve already showed they can shoot with CSUN in their first meeting (95–90 affair that was never really out of reach), and you get a very usable number.

The situational metrics lean towards the Mustangs as well. Cal Poly receives a monstrous bump in TeamRankings’ power ratings when they play at home (they’re listed as having an “HA” rating that is among the highest in the country), which is more valuable in a short spread game like this one. CSUN meanwhile has been wildly inconsistent away from home (just 1-4 SU in their last five road games), so requiring them to go on the road feels like a tougher ask than the line implies. Bring it all together and you have a nice and easy cover script: Cal Poly’s game-script keeps both offenses in “one-bucket" territory, their home-floor advantage lets them overcome defensive miscues, and even if CSUN takes it late a one-possession lead, Cal Poly still can win this game. .

Jim's Play: 840. Cal Poly (Big West Game of the Month)

I think Austin Peay makes too much sense here considering they’ve been the best version of themselves all season long and they’re catching Lipscomb at a time when the Govs’ strengths can attack what the Bisons want to do most on offense.

First, let’s look at the case as a whole: Austin Peay checks in at 15-6 overall and 9-1 in league play and they’re playing their best basketball right now on an 11-wins-in-12-games tear while also being absolutely monstrous at home (9-0, longest home winning streak in arena history). That home-court advantage matters here even more when the spread gets to around -3.5 or so in several markets because you’re not necessarily asking them to blow Lipscomb out, you’re just asking them to be the more focused team for 40 minutes in this conference rivalry game.

On the court, it mostly starts with possession. Austin Peay’s overall numbers suggest they can win the turnover battle; they commit just 11.1 turnovers per game while forcing opponents into 15.6 turnovers per game, good for a +4.5 turnover margin. They’re also good at turning opponent mistakes into easy buckets by averaging 20.4 points off turnovers while also causing havoc with 10.5 steals per game. Put simply, that’s an ideal recipe versus a Lipscomb team that wants to beat you from beyond the arc. The Bisons shoot 37.1% from three-point range while draining 10.9 triples per game, so if Austin Peay’s pressure can cause Lipscomb to speed up just enough, it attacks their biggest offensive strength while creating the kind of easy run-out buckets teams use to build leads.

Lastly, the Govs have enough offense of their own to let that defensive edge matter. Between Collin Parker (14.5 ppg) and Zyree Collins driving the offense and pace, Austin Peay doesn’t really drop off at any one position and they’ve even shown they can win games in tight finishes (listed in previews as 4–0 in games decided by less than four points). Bring it all together and I like Austin Peay’s pressure winning extra possessions, getting some transition points here and there, and avoiding prolonged scoring droughts that allow Lipscomb’s three-point shooting volume take over games-setting up a Govs win in the 5-10 point range that easily covers the spread.

Jim's Play: 554. Austin Peay 

I think NC State should cover the short road number (most books have them somewhere around -2.5) for a few reasons. First, the matchup plays into who they are right now: good shot creators, good spacing, etc. on offense. NC State also enters on a 4 game win streak and just had a good offensive outing at Wake Forest where they shot the ball well from the perimeter and got guard scoring, both things that travel when you’re only laying a bucket or two. Projection models that have a small edge towards SMU still have it as essentially a one-possession game, and that’s where NC State’s recent offensive efficiency and late-game poise come into play: they don’t have to outplay SMU for 40 minutes, they just have to be the better team when the game is on the line (literally) in the 6–8 minute range. The recipe for winning/plays giving the spread is pretty straightforward: Don’t turn the ball over, make SMU earn their points on a set defense instead of getting runouts, and continue to score with guards that can shoot threes or draw fouls. If NC State plays to that profile I could absolutely see them winning by 4-8.

Jim's Play: 649. North Carolina State (ACC Game of the Month) 

Indiana State has a strong chance to cover the spread tonight against Illinois-Chicago because their offensive style directly attacks UIC’s biggest defensive weaknesses. The Sycamores move the ball extremely well, ranking near the top of the MVC in assists, and that fluidity consistently generates clean perimeter looks. UIC has struggled all season to defend teams that share the ball and shoot in volume from deep, and Indiana State’s ability to knock down threes keeps them competitive in any building. Even though UIC is solid at home, the number is inflated because of that record, and Indiana State’s balanced scoring and pace control travel well enough to neutralize the environment. UIC’s offense leans heavily on one primary scorer, which plays into Indiana State’s defensive strengths, as they tend to fare better against teams without multiple creators. With this being the first conference meeting between the two, the underdog benefits from the lack of familiarity, and Indiana State’s offensive consistency gives them a clear path to staying inside the number.

Jim's Play: 637. Indiana State (Missouri Valley Conf Game of the Month)

Portland sits primed to beat the spread against Washington on Tuesday night due to the nature of the matchup between both team talent and recent form. Blazers currently sit at approximately a 23-24 win pace while the Wizards are at 10-34. First and foremost, Portland’s defense has noticeably improved over the past few weeks. Blazers have been significantly better on that end of the floor in January and tracking has them defending like a playoff fringe team rather than a lottery team lately, especially in terms of opponents shooting free throws. This is key against Washington because they’re already hard-capped in their ability to create efficient half-court offense, and they don’t have leeway to miss shots without drawing fouls.

The Wizards also are thinning out as players hit the injury report. Officially, Marvin Bagley is out and Bilal Coulibaly and Khris Middleton are both listed as questionable to play, among other rotation players. Either player sitting or even playing limited minutes tilts Washington’s offense to being one-dimensional, and it makes it hard for them to keep up for 48 minutes.

Even with injuries of their own recently keeping Deni Avdija out and other names being banged up, Portland has demonstrated an ability to hang with teams because they defend and rebound, and they can create enough offense through various options. Washington is a good opponent to capitalize on that and turn steady pressure into an insurmountable lead, especially if the Wizards’ bench has to play huge minutes.

Portland’s defense forces opponents into empty trips, they control the boards, and they build a lead in the middle quarters once Washington can no longer score. I look for a Portland cover here tonight in Washington. 

Jim's Play: 529. Trailblazers 

Charlotte being -3.5 at home feels like a “who’s available” line and this one sets up pretty well for the Hornets to cash that ticket if Philly is legitimately short-handed. Biggest reason is simple: Joel Embiid and Paul George are both OUT for Philly to manage knee injuries, which takes away their inside scoring, rim pressure, and a ton of half-court creation on the wing.

In Embiid and George’s absence, Philly’s offense really revolves around Tyrese Maxey and small, perimeter-oriented play. Sure, that can result in buckets, but those lineups are also susceptible to wild scoring swings and a tougher time earning “easy” baskets at the rim/fouling late. Philly’s defense also takes a hit without Embiid’s presence around the basket and George’s versatility to switch onto big wings/high-usage players.

Charlotte just needs to run and attack the basket against a shorter Philly rotation, forcing mismatches for 48 minutes. They’ve shown home scoring punch recently and are coming off a 119–115 victory over Washington, which is exactly the kind of game flow that favors the Hornets when they’re controlling the pace and getting production from everyone.

They even have a schedule/location advantage. The tip was moved up to 3:00 p.m. ET because of the impending winter storm, which threw Philly’s normal prep out the window with weather and travel concerns. Games at weird times generally favor the home team’s familiarity with its arena and bench, let alone when the visiting team is without its stars.

Combine all that and I like Charlotte’s chance to cover for Embiid-less lineups running with more pace + home atmosphere + less lineup disruption. If the Hornets beat Philly in the non-Maxey minutes and prevent them from getting into a half-court, grind-it-out kind of game, they should not only win, but cover the -3.5.

Jim's Play: 518. Hornets 

Saint Peter’s can cover the +2.5 or +3 here against Merrimack on Saturday because first, the matchup screams low-scoring, grind-it-out MAAC affair where possessions are likely at a premium. Essentially the line is telling you this game is going to be a pick’em, which aligns perfectly with what we know about Saint Peter’s so far this season: namely, that they’re a lockdown defensive team that doesn’t let opponents get too far away. The Peacocks are only allowing about 67.5 points per game and have found MAAC success running a physical half-court style on D while maintaining an excellent pace, which is EXACTLY what you want as a road underdog laying points.

Secondly, Saint Peter’s already beat Merrimack in this matchup comfortably earlier this month, coming away with a 76–63 win that should confirm for bettors just how real this style matchup is and not just some theory concocted by number crunchers. Merrimack also happens to rank among the nation’s slowest teams in terms of tempo, which should limit possessions and keep the underdog in the game as the points favorite looks to build a lead. Lastly, the numbers say Merrimack isn’t exactly a blowout team either: they average around 67.0 points per game and hold a negative scoring margin overall, both indicators of games that often come down to the “last four minutes decides it” variety. No player injuries have been noted for either team entering game time, so the path to cover here is simple: limit possessions by keeping this game in the half court, force Merrimack to score against Saint Peter’s set defense, and do not blow the game open late. Those ingredients allow for plenty of outcomes that still get you home with +2.5 even if Merrimack manages to pull off a close win at home.

Jim's Play: 677. St Peter's (MAAC Conference Game of the Month)

Detroit has a strong case to win and cover at home because the matchup leans toward the Pistons’ strengths, and the market is only asking them to win by a couple possessions. Tipoff is Friday, January 23, 2026 at 7:00 p.m. ET (4:00 p.m. PT) at Little Caesars Arena, and the main number is sitting in the Pistons -3.5 to -4.5 range depending on the book. Detroit has been elite this season (32-10) and especially strong at home (17-4), so it’s not a “hope they steal one” spot, it’s simply backing the better, more consistent team in its own building.

The matchup edge starts with Detroit’s defense and physicality, which has been a calling card of their early-2026 run, and it plays well against a Houston team that can get bogged down when the paint is crowded and the game slows. Houston is also still dealing with frontcourt/injury uncertainty: Steven Adams is listed out on the NBA’s official injury report, and the Rockets hadn’t even submitted their full report at the last official update, so there’s real volatility on who’s available and at what capacity. If Houston is limited inside or thin in the rotation, Detroit can punish that with rim pressure and second-chance opportunities—exactly the kind of “extra possessions” that turn a close game into a 6–10 point win.

Finally, Detroit’s cover path looks even cleaner if Cade Cunningham plays (he’s been listed as questionable in injury roundup coverage). Even if he’s not 100%, Detroit has been winning with depth and defense, but if Cade suits up, it raises the Pistons’ late-game shot creation and free-throw closing ability, two things you want when laying a modest number. With Detroit’s home form, defensive base, and Houston’s uncertainty, this sets up as the kind of game where the Pistons control long stretches and do enough late to win and cover the small spread.

Jim's Play: 546. Pistons  (Interconference Game of the Mnoth)

The game is essentially priced as a pick’em right now, and if the Friars play to their ceiling at home they can put Creighton in a basketball game they may not want to play. It goes down at Amica Mutual Pavilion (6: 30 pm ET) and one advantage that immediately stands out is Providence’s capacity to score quickly and often: per their own combined numbers, the Friars are averaging 89.1 points per game on 47.5% shooting, and they earn their trips to the line by getting to the rim at a high rate and making their free throws (77.7% FT), which bodes well for a game that could come down to one or two late possessions. Creighton doesn’t play at quite the same frantic pace and aren’t built to consistently burn opponents with blow-by buckets, so if Providence shoots well and forces Creighton to guard them on the run, the Jays will have to execute well in half-court settings for stretches. A second “Friars win” scenario centers on how little margin for error Creighton may have if Providence is shooting with confidence and setting their pace early, as the Friars can keep the buckets coming with long-range shooting and free throws, which is a very tough combo to slow on the road. Last but not least, keep an eye on the health of Providence’s backcourt players (per Ari: Jason Edwards is apparently working back from injury), but as long as the line stays around pick’em/short range the upshot is straightforward: if Providence plays up to their home-road offensive identity, they have the offensive firepower to outscore Creighton and convert on possessions well enough to grab the outright win.

Jim's Play: 882. Providence (Big East Game of the Month) 

High Point feels like the right side in this one due to them being the more complete team on both ends of the floor. Plus their profile travels well even away from home at Winthrop. High Point comes into this one 16-3 with one of the most explosive offenses we’ve seen, tallying 93.9 PPG while shooting 51.9% from the field and 38.1% from three, and yet they’ve paired that with actual resistance defensively (just 68.5 PPG allowed) for a gargantuan scoring margin edge. Winthrop can score too (85.8 PPG) and they shoot a lot of threes as well, but their defensive baseline is much looser (74.6 PPG allowed) and that’s a rough matchup against a High Point team that creates efficient looks at a high volume and gets to the free throw line at a high clip. You also don’t have to guess on the matchup history edge here either: High Point is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, including a 88-66 win last time they played back in February 2025, and that recent head to head success matters when the styles of these two teams are so similar year in and year out in league play. If this one becomes a run and gun game High Point’s efficiency awards them the higher ceiling and if it slows down their ability to score in the half court while still defending without fouling keeps them from giving Winthrop any easy stretches it wants at home.

Jim's Play: Take: 505. High Point (Big South Game of the Month)

Virginia has a strong case to cover at Louisville on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. The matchup sets up as a tight, possession-by-possession ACC game where getting +3.5 is valuable. Louisville is favored by 3.5, but Virginia comes in playing efficient, confident basketball at 14-2 (3-1 ACC), and their new-look offense has been legitimately productive, averaging 85.1 points per game and hitting the 80-point mark in 13 games already. Virginia has also proven it can travel (4-2 away from home), and they’re coming off a win where they clamped down defensively for long stretches, which matters in a spread this small because a couple empty possessions for either side often decide the cover.  On the Louisville side, the injury report is a real factor: freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. is out, and while Ryan Conwell is listed probable, Louisville is still dealing with illness questions for Khani Rooths and others, which can affect rotation stability and late-game execution. If Virginia’s scoring balance shows up early, and they can string together a few stops to prevent Louisville from turning the game into a run-fest at the Yum Center, this profiles as a one-possession game deep into the final four minutes, which is exactly the script you want holding Virginia +3.5.

Jim's Play: 611. Virginia (ACC Game of the Month)

Coastal Carolina should be able to not just win, but also cover the -3.5 on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026 (7: 00 PM ET) at the HTC Center in Conway for two reasons: 1) this is the type of game the home line will move to the team that is more balanced all-around (whether that’s proved true or not), and 2) they’ve already shown that they can compete against and beat Old Dominion. Coastal is 8-8 (1-3) while ODU is 4-12 (1-3), and the scoring profiles behind those records only deepen the current gap in expected performance: Coastal is basically even on the season at 73.2 scored / 72.6 allowed, while Old Dominion’s defense has been leaking points (allowing around 79.8 per game with a negative margin), which is a tough foundation to trust on the road. The best “cover” angle is that Coastal already went to Norfolk and won 76-74 on Dec. 20, and in that game they controlled the free-throw line (21-of-24) and survived a poor 3-point night, exactly the kind of road win that usually translates well back home when you’re only laying a couple possessions. Coastal also brings multiple steady scorers at the top (Rasheed Jones, Joshua Beadle, AJ Dancler all in the 14-15 PPG range), and their team numbers show they can win the physical battle too, averaging 41.9 rebounds per game while holding opponents to 38.6% shooting and 30.9% from three, good ingredients for building separation without needing a heater. Put it together and the cover script is pretty clean: Coastal rebounds, defends the arc well enough to prevent ODU from getting comfortable, and their shot-makers do just enough at home to turn a competitive game into a 5–9 point win that clears the number.

Jim's Play: 762. Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month)

Charlotte is a safe play to cover tonight against UTSA on Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026 because both the number and matchup lean in their direction. The 49ers sit around a -3.5 road favorite on an 8: 00 PM ET tip, which means they don’t need a landslide to hit the number, just a relatively clean win by a couple possessions. UTSA’s D has been their undoing all season, surrendering roughly 77.3 points per game and getting outscored by about 7.2 per night, so it’s hard to trust that as a base against a Charlotte team that can put up points in waves. The 49ers also come in with some real momentum and depth after the 104-100 double-overtime win over Wichita State where their bench dropped a program-record 62 points, and that level of second-unit scoring is a huge road advantage once foul trouble and fatigue set in. Dezayne Mingo’s recent uptick (career-high 26 and AAC honorable mention) also gives Charlotte a confident shot-maker to stabilize the offense if the game becomes choppy, and UTSA’s rotation is a concern with a few players questionable to go along with Vasean Allette out for the season. Put all that together and the cover script is pretty simple: Charlotte’s depth dominates the middle minutes, UTSA’s defense leaks points, and Charlotte executes late to turn a close game into a 5-9 point road win that clears the number.

Jim's Play: 717. Charlotte (AAC Game of the Month)

The 76ers have a strong path to a win tonight in Chicago because their strengths line up cleanly with the Bulls’ biggest weaknesses. Tyrese Maxey’s speed and shot creation present a major problem for a Chicago backcourt that has struggled all season to contain explosive guards off the dribble. Philadelphia’s spacing and pace force the Bulls into defensive rotations they rarely execute well, especially with their inconsistent rim protection. Offensively, Chicago leans heavily on isolation play, which plays right into the Sixers’ defensive comfort zone, allowing them to load up, force contested mid-range shots, and limit efficient possessions. Philly also brings a clear bench advantage, with their second unit providing more reliable scoring and energy than Chicago’s thin reserve group. Add in a likely rebounding edge for the Sixers and the Bulls’ ongoing issues defending the three, and Philadelphia enters this matchup with multiple pathways to control the game and close it out late behind Maxey’s superior clutch shot-making.

Jim's Play: 509. 76ers 

Nebraska is 9-0 overall heading into Wednesday night’s Big Ten action against Wisconsin, so it’s a good idea to bet on the Cornhuskers to cover the spread, especially when you take into account that Nebraska has been one of the best home teams in the conference in terms of opponent shooting percentages. Sam Hoiberg and Rienk Mast have been holding down the fort for the Huskers this year, both on the inside and from behind the three-point line, while Nebraska has continued to improve to the point where they were able to make the AP Top 25 for the first time since the middle of last season. The Cornhuskers currently have a mark of 9-0 and are posting averages of over 83 points per game while their opponents only average just under 68. Nebraska has continued to prove that they have an ability to throw out one of the conference’s most dominant defenses, as they recorded a recent win against Creighton in which the Bluejays shot under 31% from the field. Wisconsin comes into this game at 7-2 and proved that they could hang with the nation’s top teams with a win over Marquette that saw John Blackwell put up 30 on a team that was considered to be one of the nation’s best. Wisconsin’s offense has been lighting up the scoreboard as they currently have an average of almost 88 points per game, but it is very important to note that they have not proven that they can be successful in a true road environment yet, with an away record of only 1-2 this season.

The Cornhuskers are 6-0 at home in Pinnacle Bank Arena this season, and they have a solid inside and outside attack that is able to both rebound and defend at a higher level than Wisconsin at this point. Nebraska has all of the momentum and the depth on their side, but Wisconsin is an up and coming squad that is capable of turning the tables, so you could go either way with this game if you like. If the Badgers can be just as effective away from home as they are at home in Madison, which they have not been, this game will be a lot closer than most people are predicting. Nebraska has the talent and they have proven that they are capable of winning this game.  I'll take the Huskers and lay the short number here on Wednesday. 

Jim's Play: 662. Nebraska 

The in-state showdown between the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic on Tuesday sets up as a spot where the young, ascending Magic are well positioned to defend their home floor and get the win. Both teams are tied at 14-10 and in 1st place in the NBA Southeast division. The diffence is that that Magic are 9-4 at home while the Heat have a losing road record at 4-7. The Heat have also lost three straight games. 

Orlando has built its identity around length, versatility, and defense, with a core of big wings and forwards who can switch across multiple positions, contest shots, and make life tough on opposing scorers. Offensively, the Magic lean on their size mismatch game, attacking smaller guards in the post, driving bigger defenders off the dribble, and generating free throws and paint touches instead of living on tough jumpers. At home, that physical style tends to show up even more, as they feed off energy, get to the line, and control the boards.

Miami will always bring toughness and discipline under Erik Spoelstra, but the Heat’s offense can go through stretches of stagnation, especially if the outside shots aren’t falling or they’re forced into a grind-it-out half-court game against a long, active defense like Orlando’s. The Magic’s ability to throw multiple defenders at Miami’s primary scorers, take away clean catch-and-shoot looks, and turn misses into transition chances gives them a clear path to controlling tempo. If Orlando wins the rebounding battle, limits live-ball turnovers, and continues to get balanced scoring from its young core, the matchup leans their way. With fresher legs, more size across the board, and a style that directly attacks some of Miami’s offensive limitations, the Magic are a solid choice to come away with the win on Tuesday.

Jim's Play : 570. Orland Magic 

Miami rolls into Dallas on Wednesday night playing like one of the Eastern Conference’s early-season bullies, while the Mavericks are still trying to find consistency and string together wins. The Heat have been doing it with a blend of pressure defense and a free-flowing, efficient offense, with multiple perimeter scorers capable of taking over on any given night. Miami already owns a narrow win over Dallas from their first meeting, and this time they come in looking deeper and more settled in their roles, with their spacing and ball movement set to test a Mavericks defense that has been leaky for long stretches. Dallas can be dangerous at home when their shooters get rolling, but they’ve struggled to sustain strong play for all four quarters and have had issues on the glass and in late-game execution. With the Heat laying what should be a short number on the road and carrying the more reliable defense, deeper rotation, and better overall form, the matchup points to Miami dictating the tempo and pulling away late, so the call is for the Heat to win and cover the spread in Dallas.

Jim's Play: 579. Heat 

The San Antonio Spurs enter Wednesday night’s home matchup against the Golden State Warriors as 4.5-point favorites, and the setup strongly favors the Spurs to win and cover the spread.  San Antonio has been one of the league’s early-season surprises, racing out to an 8-2 record behind the dominance of Victor Wembanyama, who is averaging over 25 points per game while anchoring the defense with his rim protection and rebounding. The Spurs have won five straight at home, and their balance on both ends of the floor has made them difficult to beat. Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle have provided reliable perimeter scoring, while the Spurs’ bench has consistently outperformed opponents, giving them depth that Golden State has struggled to match.

Golden State, meanwhile, comes in at 6-6 overall and has dropped six consecutive road games. The Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back after being routed by Oklahoma City, 102-126,  which raises concerns about fatigue and rotations. Stephen Curry remains the focal point of their offense, but he has had little help lately, with Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski inconsistent as secondary scorers. The Warriors’ defense has also been shaky, allowing opponents to dictate pace and exploit mismatches, particularly in the paint where they lack size to counter Wembanyama.

While Golden State has historically thrived as an underdog, this season they are 0-2 ATS when catching 4.5 points or more, underscoring their struggles in this role. The Spurs, on the other hand, have covered in four of their last five games as favorites, showing their ability to meet expectations. 

With the Warriors’ road woes, fatigue from the back-to-back, and San Antonio’s strong home form, this contest sets up for the Spurs to control the tempo, exploit their size advantage, and ultimately pull away late. Expect San Antonio to win and cover the spread, extending their home dominance while Golden State continues to search for answers away from Chase Center.

Jim's Play: 558. Spurs (NBA Western Conference Game of the Month)

The New York Knicks (6–3) are on a four-game winning streak as they return to MSG for their seventh straight home game. They sit atop the New York Atlantic Division and have not lost at home this season (6-0) and won their last game by a final score of 134–98 over the Nets. The Knicks were 17-of-37 from beyond the arc and never trailed. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in scoring for the fifth straight game as he’s averaging 28.3 PPG and 6.1 APG. Karl-Anthony Towns is having a strong start to the season as well, pulling down 12.8 rebounds per game. They will be without Jalen Williams (wrist) but their bench and defensive effort has been the story early on for the Knicks.

The Grizzlies (4–7) are in a tough spot as they are coming off a 114–100 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder and lost four of their last five. The offense is suffering without shooting from beyond the arc as Ja Morant is still struggling from three-point range. The Grizzlies are also reportedly having some clubhouse issues between Morant and the coaching staff which is leading to some instability. It has been a tough start for Memphis who has not won any of their 6 games as underdogs this season and will be without Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, and Ty Jerome to start the season due to injuries.

The numbers also don’t favor Memphis as the Knicks have a much higher net rating of +5.3 to Memphis’s -4.0. The Knicks also have better three-point shooting (37.5% to 33.3%), and both defensive and offensive rating in their favor, this is another indicator that the Knicks should be able to control the pace of this game. The implied win probability for this game is in favor of New York over 80% and they’ve looked dominant at home so far this season. The Knicks will be controlling the pace early, and outscoring the Grizzlies late, expect them to cover 9.5 easily.

Jim's Play: 536. Knicks 

In the season opener for the NBA Cup on Friday night, the Clippers have a significant advantage over the winless New Orleans Pelicans. Although the Clippers were in an offensive funk during their 98–79 loss to the Golden State, the Clippers should cover the spread and win at home against the Pelicans. The Clippers have a 75.8% win probability and are 2–0 at home in Inglewood. Los Angeles boasts a lineup led by Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, which is expected to produce big in the NBA’s big opener against a struggling Pelicans offense. The Pelicans’ start to the season hasn’t gone well, as they are 0-4 and include a 122-88 loss to the Denver Nuggets in which they gave up 53.3% shooting and scored only 17 assists. Dejounte Murray is out with an Achilles rupture, and Kevon Looney is doubtful due to a knee sprain.

The Clippers should be able to take advantage of a Pelicans offense that has struggled to start the season, shooting only 41.2% from the field and averaging a low 104.0 points per game while allowing 123 ppg.  LA’s scoring will likely come from a healthy Bradley Beal coming off back soreness, and the Clippers will have success taking the Pelicans on the break early on in the game to tire them out. They will also look to create mismatches on the perimeter, especially if Brandon Miller, who’s had problems on defense, plays more minutes. They should also have an advantage on the boards against a team that’s rebounding a low 42.3 per game. Considering the Clippers’ form, health, and the home-court advantage, the Clippers should not only win but cover the 11-point spread with the Pelicans on Friday.

Jim's Play:  524. Clippers -11 

The Bulls enter this October 29th clash at the United Center riding a perfect 3-0 start to the season, showcasing a balanced and explosive offense led by Nikola Vucevic (20.0 ppg). Chicago’s early-season dominance has been fueled by elite ball movement (29.3 APG) and rebounding (49.0 RPG), giving them a clear edge over a Kings squad that’s struggled to find consistency. Sacramento has dropped three of its last four games, including a 127-120 loss to the Lakers where they allowed 41 free throws and committed 26 personal fouls. Their defensive lapses have been costly, and they’ll face a Bulls team that thrives on attacking the rim and drawing contact.

Zach LaVine leads the Kings with 31 ppg and 53% shooting, but he’ll be challenged by Chicago’s interior depth and physicality. DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and Dennis Schroder provide scoring punch, yet Sacramento’s perimeter defense remains suspect - allowing opponents to shoot nearly 49% from the field.  Chicago’s ability to push tempo and exploit mismatches should create separation early. The Bulls are also covering spreads consistently, going 3-0 ATS in their last three outings.

With momentum, home-court advantage, and superior execution on both ends, the Bulls are primed to control this matchup and extend their unbeaten run. Expect Chicago to win comfortably, validating Jim’s pick and reinforcing their status as an early-season Eastern Conference contender.

Jim's Play: 560. Bulls (Interconference Game of the Month)

The Phoenix Suns host the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, in an early-season Pacific Division matchup that should set a tone for both clubs. Phoenix comes in slightly favored, and with good reason-they’re hungry, and looking to make a statement after missing last year’s postseason. The Suns will rely on their home crowd and a more balanced attack to control the pace against a Sacramento team that may be shorthanded.

The Kings could be without All-Star big man Domantas Sabonis, who’s dealing with a hamstring injury. Without him, Sacramento loses its inside presence and a key facilitator in the half court.  The Kings’ defense struggled last season, allowing 115 points per game and ranking among the league’s worst in defending the three-point line—an area where the Suns can take advantage.

Phoenix has its own injury concerns with Jalen Green sidelined and Grayson Allen questionable, but their depth and home energy should be enough to overcome it. Expect the Suns to control the glass, get out in transition, and shoot efficiently from the perimeter. If they can dictate tempo and keep the Kings from turning it into a track meet, this one tilts heavily in their favor. The loss of Sabonis is the biggest blow here tonight and will hurt this Kings team. 

Jim's Play: 526. Suns 

6/19 05:30 PM PT / 8:30 PM ET  

NBA   (511) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER  VS  (512) INDIANA PACERS

Take: 512. Pacers +6.5 

Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals begins Thursday, June 19, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With the Thunder taking a 3–2 series lead after winning Game 5 by a final of 120-109, they’re now one victory away from clinching their first-ever title in Oklahoma City .

Oklahoma City is entering this game full of confidence and balance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an MVP-caliber season, averaging 32.7 ppg in the regular season and eclipsing 30 per game in the playoffs They shot the three well - OKC hit 14 threes at nearly 44%—and forced 22 turnovers, giving them a decisive advantage .

Meanwhile, Indiana is on the ropes. Their own star duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam battled OKC’s starters head-to-head, but Haliburton’s calf injury sapped him to just four points in Game 5 . Siakam’s still scoring at a clip of 28, but with Haliburton limited, the Pacers couldn’t sustain momentum and struggled to create scoring opportunities . They’ll need more to advance, but with Haliburton at less than full strength, they may have a tougher road to traverse.

Coach Rick Carlisle has received plaudits for his strategic ingenuity—using zone defense, full-court pressure, and long-range passing to remain competitive at home . I don't believe it matters if Haliburton is not 100% today, this Pacers team will fight tooth and nail to the end with the personel they have at hand. 

The Thunder are favored again on the road, a place they have covered just once in all the playoffs this season, going 1-8 ATS. Oklahoma City is playing with confidence and momentum, using elite shooting, pressure defense, and star playmakers to move on to Game 6. Indiana has fight and a home-crowd boost and I look for them to fight all the way to end in this game. They might not win, but I do see them covering the spread here on Thursday. 

Jim's Play: 512. Pacers  

The Western Conference Finals Game 2 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder will occur on Thursday, May 22 at 8:30 p.m. The Western Conference Finals Game 2 between the Timberwolves and Thunder will take place at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City according to Eastern Time. The Thunder maintain a 1–0 series advantage following their dominant 114–88 Game 1 victory. The Thunder's recently crowned league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander amassed 31 points and nine assists during the game while demonstrating his game-changing abilities especially in the second half with 20 points.

The game-winning performance by Oklahoma City included a strong defensive effort that played a major part in their Game 1 victory. The Thunder limited the Timberwolves to only 34.9% shooting accuracy and caused them to commit 17 turnovers. Minnesota's top scorer Anthony Edwards ended the game with 18 points from 13 attempts while noting that Oklahoma City's defense mirrored an "AAU" style through its aggressive and unpredictable tactics. Julius Randle stood out for the Timberwolves by scoring 28 points and making five three-pointers although he also gave the ball away five times.

The Timberwolves must see better play from their bench players to secure a victory in Game 2. In Game 1 both Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker combined to shoot only 6-of-25 from the field as they struggled to find their rhythm. The team's head coach Chris Finch demanded improved decision-making and faster ball movement as strategies to overcome the Thunder's intense defense.

The Thunder maintains its depth advantage through defensive versatility and bench energy provided by Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace. The rotation of fresh defenders against the Timberwolves' key players effectively disrupted Minnesota's offensive rhythm.

The Timberwolves must implement substantial strategic changes throughout the series to prevent a 2–0 disadvantage before moving the games to Minnesota. Game 2 provides the Timberwolves with a chance to show their toughness and bounce back against the powerful Thunder team.  I’ll take the points with the visitors in this one. 

Jim’s Play : Timberwolves

The Oklahoma City Thunder face the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals at Ball Arena in Denver on Thursday, May 15, 2025 at 8:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. PT). With the series standing at 3-2 in their favor the Thunder will attempt to clinch victory and advance to the Western Conference finals with a win tonight.

Oklahoma City won Game 5 with a final score of 112-105 despite Nikola Jokic's impressive 44-point and 15-rebound performance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander spearheaded the Thunder's scoring with 31 points while showing his calmness during key moments of the game. Lu Dort and Jaylin Williams provided valuable support that demonstrated both the team's depth and their ability to remain resilient.

Facing elimination the Nuggets will depend heavily on Jokic who played a central role throughout the series. The team faces challenges with limited depth and Jokic's fatigue after his high-minute performance in Game 5 . The Nuggets' success in prolonging the series hinges on their capacity to back their star player while effectively handling their player rotations.

The Thunder will once again be a road favorite here tonight. I’m sticking with the defending champs getting points at home to keep this series alive and send it back to OKC. 

Take: 508. Nuggets 

The Western Conference Semifinals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets begins tonight at 10:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver. Following two contrasting games the series stands even at 1–1. Aaron Gordon delivered a clutch performance for the Nuggets by hitting a game-winning three-pointer and collecting 12 rebounds to win Game 1 on the road. The Thunder delivered a powerful answer in Game 2 when they defeated Denver 149–106 by combining a dominant defense with outstanding three-point shooting performance.

The Thunder ranks among the league’s top road teams with a 32–8 away-from-home record this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander keeps his team ahead with playoff averages of 29.7 points and 6.7 assists while Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren contribute with versatile scoring and rim protection. Alex Caruso recently described the Thunder’s defense as their “superpower” due to their success in forcing Memphis to commit more turnovers than made shots during the second half of their first-round series.

The essential challenge for Denver now lies in recovering from their demoralizing defeat in Game 2. After collecting 22 rebounds in Game 1 Nikola Jokic must find ways to make his presence felt throughout the early stages of the game. Following playoff blowouts Jokic typically recovers by taking control of the rebounding game in the next contest. Jamal Murray must step up his scoring and playmaking while the Nuggets face difficulties defending Oklahoma City’s perimeter players.

I fully expect the Nuggets and Jokic to bounce back here on Friday.  I won’t be surprised by a straight-up Denver win tonight. However, I’ll take the generous points the oddsmaker is giving me.

Jim’s Play: Denver Nuggets

The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to clash in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals tonight 5:30 PM PDT at Minneapolis' Target Center. The Warriors earned the 1-0 series lead after defeating the Timberwolves 99-88 in Game 1 despite losing Stephen Curry to a Grade 1 hamstring strain early in the match. Golden State will need to depend on their other key players since Curry will miss three upcoming games.

With Curry out the Warriors plan to depend on Jimmy Butler, Buddy Hield, and Draymond Green for offense. Hield scored 24 points during Game 1 while Butler added 20 points with 11 rebounds and 8 assists and Green contributed 18 points together with 8 rebounds and 6 assists. The Warriors secured their victory by limiting the Timberwolves to a shooting percentage of 39.5% overall and 17.2% from beyond the arc.

Game 1 exposed the Timberwolves' offensive difficulties. Anthony Edwards recorded a single point during the first half before accumulating a total of 23 points through an impressive performance in the second half. Naz Reid delivered strong bench performance with 19 points which displayed his capability to stretch the floor. Minnesota requires stronger showings from their bench players and enhanced shooting accuracy to balance out the series.

The absence of Curry poses a major obstacle for the Warriors as they attempt to keep their offensive flow. The Timberwolves plan to take advantage of this chance by using their bigger roster to overpower the paint and dictate the game's pace. The second game will prove critical because both teams will refine their strategies during this closely fought series. I look for the Wolves to bounce back with a big win here on Thursday

Jim’s Play: Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The first Western Conference Semifinals matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors will take place at Target Center in Minneapolis on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. Following their decisive 4-1 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers the Timberwolves have enjoyed plenty of rest time since their last matchup on May 1. The Warriors begin this series off a demanding seven-game series against the Houston Rockets that ended with their Game 7 triumph on May 4.

Anthony Edwards' 26.8 points per game performance along with Julius Randle's 22.6 points and his additional 5.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game drove Minnesota to success in the first round. Rudy Gobert and Randle's size advantage benefits the Timberwolves against the Warriors' smaller lineup. The experienced Golden State team might face difficulties controlling Minnesota's frontcourt strength and rebounding skill.

To overcome the Timberwolves' physical game plan the Warriors must draw from Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler's championship backgrounds and utilize perimeter shooting skills. Buddy Hield's outstanding Game 7 performance against Houston which included 33 points and nine three-pointers set an NBA record while emphasizing the importance of role players stepping up. Golden State struggles with team depth which becomes more apparent when facing Minnesota's balanced and well-rested lineup.

Game 1 is scheduled at 6:30 PM PDT. The Timberwolves are favored by 6.5 points which sets up a captivating opening for the series. Minnesota stands out to me with their combination of youth, size and rest. The Warriors have experience, but they are coming of that demanding, physical, and emotional 7-game win vs the Rockets. I don’t expect much from the Warriors here in game one and that makes this the perfect spot to strike with the Timberwolves.

Jim’s Play: Minnesota Timberwolves (Western Conference 2nd Round Game of the Year)

The Houston Rockets will travel to Chase Center in San Francisco to face the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of their first-round playoff series on May 2, 2025. Golden State Warriors maintained a 3-2 series advantage after Houston Rockets dominated them with strong defense and excellent shooting to win Game 5 by a substantial 131-116 margin. Stephen Curry faced a notable defensive challenge from Amen Thompson after a strong 36-point Game 3 performance .

The Warriors approach Game 6 as favorites by five points while the expected total points scored stands at 203.5. The Warriors have demonstrated impressive home performance at the Chase Center with a 17-3 record over their most recent 20 playoff games there. The Rockets have demonstrated resilience through their "double bigs" lineup with Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams disrupting the Warriors' offensive flow.

Physical confrontations and escalating tensions defined the series while Dillon Brooks revealed he specifically hit Curry's injured thumb. While Warriors faced challenges in their composure due to the physical play, their expertise from past high-pressure games may become a key advantage.

The Warriors have the home-court advantage and playoff experience needed to finish off the series. The Warriors do not want to go back to Houston for a game seven. They have depth in their bench, a great coach and lots of playoff experience. I'm taking the Warriors to close out the series and cover the spread. 

Jim's Play: 530. Warriors 

The Cleveland Cavaliers hold a 1-0 series lead over the Miami Heat after their decisive 121-100 Game 1 victory as they prepare to face off again on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. The game will start at 7:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.

Donovan Mitchell achieved a game-high 30 points with four steals while Cleveland's backcourt trio of him, Darius Garland, and Ty Jerome exceeded 80 total points in Game 1. Garland contributed 27 points to the team's effort while Jerome produced a game-changing 28-point performance from the bench that included 16 points in the fourth quarter to help secure the victory. The Cavaliers displayed strong three-point shooting by hitting 18 out of their 43 attempts which demonstrated their depth and power on offense.

Miami entered the playoffs as the first No. 10 seed to move past the Play-In Tournament. To reach the playoffs from the Play-In Tournament as the first No. 10 seed to do so Miami depended primarily on Bam Adebayo's 24 points and Tyler Herro's 21 points. Miami could not stop Cleveland’s perimeter attack from advancing while their offense failed to maintain an equivalent pace. The absence of veteran players Kevin Love and Terry Rozier due to injuries has left Miami Heat with fewer players and reduced scoring ability.

Miami needs strategic defensive improvements primarily against three-point shooters and additional offensive support besides their two leading scorers for Game 2. Cleveland aims to maintain their scoring drive to build a 2-0 series advantage before moving to South Florida. The betting lines favor the Cavaliers with a double-digit advantage after they demonstrated their superior performance in Game 1 against Miami's significant challenges. The Heat must deliver sharp performances from all players to prevent falling into a 0-2 series deficit against the strong playoff-aspiring Cavaliers.

Big line here in game two as the Cavs around a 12-point favorite. While I don't expect a Heat win, I do look for them to slide in under that line.

Jim's Play: Miami Heat

The first-round playoff series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat starts on Sunday, April 20, 2025 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.  The Cavaliers took home the top seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to their 64–18 record while the Heat claimed the eighth seed after moving forward from the Play-In Tournament.

Cleveland boasts the highest offensive rating in the league by scoring 121.9 points for every 100 possessions. The team ranks eighth defensively because they permit opponents to score 111.8 points per 100 possessions. Donovan Mitchell has spearheaded the Cavaliers' offense by averaging 26.5 points per game while Darius Garland steers the team as an efficient floor general with 6.7 assists per game. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen serve as the foundation for Cleveland’s inside defense and rebounding efforts.

The Heat took an alternate route to reach the playoffs. After Jimmy Butler left the team during the regular season Miami finished with a record of 37–45 and went on to win against Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks in the Play-In round. Tyler Herro has assumed the lead position for Miami Heat by scoring 23.9 points per game and receives crucial support from Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins during both offensive and defensive plays.

The Cavaliers secured victories in two of three regular-season games against the Heat through wins with scores of 126–106 and 112–107. Miami achieved a 122–113 victory during their latest matchup. The upcoming series will largely revolve around the battle between Cleveland's explosive offensive style and Miami's tough and structured defensive approach.

Cleveland stands to benefit from home-court advantage as they have shown dominant play at home during Game 1 projections. The combination of Mitchell’s scoring ability and Cleveland’s comprehensive offensive strategy gives the Cavaliers a strong position to start the series with an advantage. 

The Cavs offense will be too much for the Miami defense and the home crown should have the Cleveland team pumped-up for game one. 

Take: Cleveland Cavaliers.  

The Los Angeles Lakers launch their 2025 NBA Playoffs season against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday, April 19 at Crypto.com Arena. Game 1 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast nationally.

The Los Angeles Lakers secured the third seed in the Western Conference for the postseason after finishing the regular season with a 50–32 record and their first Pacific Division title since 2020. The Los Angeles Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in a major midseason trade which boosted their offensive capabilities. After Doncic joined the Lakers their record stands at 19 wins and 5 losses while he delivers 28.2 points together with 8.1 rebounds and 7.5 assists in each game. LeBron James' performance of 24.6 points, 8.4 assists, and 8.0 rebounds this season alongside Luka Doncic proved essential for the team's rise through the standings.

The Lakers have discovered their rhythm under head coach JJ Redick with a starting lineup that includes Doncic, James, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith. The team has reached elite standards through superior offensive and defensive play which includes effective ball movement paired with perimeter shooting and strong physical on-ball defense.

Minnesota's sixth-seeded Timberwolves present a tough matchup with Anthony Edwards as their leading guard who posted averages of 27.6 points along with 5.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. The Minnesota team boasts Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert which creates a powerful frontcourt strength. The Wolves stand as one of the league's premier defensive teams by maintaining fifth place in point allowance with only 109.1 points given up per game.

Both teams achieved two victories each during their regular season matchups while defending their respective home courts. The Lakers have two of the biggest names in the NBA with James and Doncic and that experience should take them far in the playoffs this year.

Take; LA Lakers

The Golden State Warriors (48-33) host the Los Angeles Clippers (49-32) at the Chase Center in San Francisco on Sunday, April 13, 2025, at 3:30 PM ET. This pivotal matchup carries significant playoff implications for both teams. 

The Warriors are currently sixth in the Western Conference and can secure a guaranteed playoff spot with a victory over the Clippers. A loss, however, would leave their fate dependent on other outcomes, potentially relegating them to the play-in tournament. The Clippers, holding the fifth seed, aim to solidify their position and avoid the play-in scenario. They enter the game on a seven-game winning streak, showcasing strong form as the regular season concludes. The Clippers are tied with Denver at 49-32 and trail the Lakers by 1-game. 

In their previous three meetings this season, the Clippers have emerged victorious each time, with scores of 112-104, 102-99, and 102-92. The Warriors. Stephen Curry leads the team with an average of 24.4 points per game, supported by Jimmy Butler's all-around contributions of 17.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. Curry is currently questionable for this game. 

Considering the Clippers' recent dominance in head-to-head matchups and their current winning streak, it's difficult to pass on the few points they are getting. I look for the Clippers to come away with the win. 

Take the LA Clippers.

04/10 04:00 PM PT / 7:00 PM ET  

NBA   (503) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS (504) INDIANA PACERS

Take: (504) INDIANA PACERS

The Indiana Pacers (48-31) are set to host the Cleveland Cavaliers (63-16) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Cavaliers enter this matchup as the top team in the Eastern Conference with a 63-16 record. Their offense has been electric this season, leading the NBA with an average of 122.3 points per game. Defensively, they’re also strong, allowing just 112.3 points per game, ranking 11th overall. The Pacers, meanwhile, are currently fourth in the East and have been one of the league’s most exciting teams to watch. They average 117.3 points per game (7th in the NBA) but allow 115.0 points per game (17th), indicating their tendency to get into high-scoring affairs. 

Indiana comes into the game riding a five-game winning streak, including a gritty 104-98 win over the Washington Wizards. Cleveland has also been sharp lately, winning seven of their last ten games. They recently dismantled the Chicago Bulls with a dominant 135-113 performance. Cleveland likely will be without Donovan Mitchell due to his ankle issue, a significant potential absence. They will also be missing guard Darius Garland. Two big cogs in this Cleveland offense. 

The season series is tied 1-1. Indiana won the first meeting 108-93 on January 12, while Cleveland responded with a 127-117 win on January 14. This game will decide the regular-season series. This game doesn't mean anything to Cleveland as they hold the top spot and won't be giving it up. The Pacers can still move up or down so the games has more impact on their seeding. 

The Pacers are a big favorite vs the Cavs because of Mithchel and Garland being out of the lineup.  I'm taking the Pacers as this game means nothing to the Cavs. 

The Charlotte Hornets (19-60) will face the Toronto Raptors (29-50) at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and are wrapping up disappointing seasons. The Hornets are on a four-game losing streak and have just one win in their last ten games. Offensively, they rank 28th in the league, averaging 105.7 points per game, and are last in field goal percentage at 43.1%. Defensively, they allow 114 points per game. Injuries have taken a toll, with LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann, Brandon Miller, and Grant Williams all out for the season. Charlotte has covered just two of its last 10 games and is 36-40-2 overall this season. 

Toronto recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a 120-109 win over the Brooklyn Nets. They rank 23rd in scoring offense (110.7 PPG) and 20th in field goal percentage (45.8%). They give up 115.2 points per game defensively. The Raptors are managing injuries too, with Ochai Agbaji and Jamal Shead being rested and Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, and Brandon Ingram listed as questionable.  The Hawks have covered six of their last 10 games and are 46-30-3 for the season. 

This is the third meeting between these two teams this season, with the series tied at 1-1. The Raptors won the most recent matchup on March 28 with a 108-97 victory. I look for Toronto to cover the spread here on Wednesday,  especially considering their edge in rebounding and points in the paint. With the Hornets short-handed and struggling offensively, the Raptors are positioned to take control of this matchup. Neither team has anything to play for, but Toronto does have some momentum and depth on their side. 

Play Toronto Raptors. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32) head to Milwaukee to face the Bucks (44-34) in a pivotal late-season showdown at Fiserv Forum. Both teams come into the contest riding hot streaks—Minnesota with five straight wins and Milwaukee with four—as they aim to solidify playoff seeding with only a few games remaining. Minnesota has been red-hot, winning 14 of its last 17 games. The Timberwolves are coming off a strong win over the Philadelphia 76ers, led by Anthony Edwards, who dropped 37 points. Rudy Gobert dominated inside with 23 points, 19 rebounds, and three blocks, underlining his importance on both ends. Defensively, Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the league, allowing just 109.4 points per game—sixth-best in the NBA. Their ability to control the tempo and contest shots has made them a tough out lately.

The Bucks are also surging, having notched four straight victories, most recently edging out the New Orleans Pelicans. Gary Trent Jr. led the way in that game with 29 points, supported by Brook Lopez and Kevin Porter Jr., who each added 20. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the focal point of the team, averaging 30.5 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. However, his availability is uncertain due to a shoulder injury. Damian Lillard continues to be sidelined, putting added pressure on Milwaukee’s supporting cast.

The Bucks average 114.9 points per game; Timberwolves average 114.1. The Timberwolves allow 109.4 PPG; Bucks give up 112.9 PPG. 

Giannis’ Health: His presence—or absence—will heavily impact Milwaukee’s ability to compete inside.

This game promises to be a hard-fought battle with postseason implications. The Bucks are tied with the Clippers and Grizzlies for positions six through eight. In addition, they all three trail both Golden State and Denver by just a 1/2 game for the No 3 and No 4 spots. 

The Wolves just too hot to pass on here today. I'll lay the  points on the road with Minnesota. 

Take Minnesota

The Portland Trail Blazers (34-44) are set to host the San Antonio Spurs (32-45) at the Moda Center on Sunday, April 6, 2025, with tip-off scheduled for 6:00 PM ET. Both teams are striving to keep their slim postseason hopes alive, making this Western Conference matchup crucial. Currently 12th in the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers are 3.5 games behind the 10th-seeded Sacramento Kings. In their recent outing on Friday, they fell to the Chicago Bulls 118-113, despite a standout performance from Deni Avdija, who recorded 37 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists. Sitting 13th in the Western Conference, the Spurs are 4.5 games behind the Kings. They narrowly lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-113 on Friday, with Devin Vassell contributing 24 points, four rebounds, and three assists. The Spurs have dominated the season series thus far, winning all three previous encounters. November 7, 2024: Spurs 118, Trail Blazers 105, December 13, 2024: Spurs 118, Trail Blazers 116, December 21, 2024: Spurs 114, Trail Blazers 94. The Spurs will be without key players though on Sunday. Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) and De'Aaron Fox (finger) and Jeremy Sochan (back) are all out. Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija is averaging 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Anfernee Simons is leading the team with 19.3 points per game. San Antonio Spurs are led by Devin Vassell who is averaging 16.4 points per game. Both teams are grappling with significant injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. The Trail Blazers' depth will be tested, especially if multiple players listed as questionable are unable to play. The Spurs, missing both Wembanyama and Fox, will rely heavily on Vassell and Castle to lead their offense. The Spurs have won the previous three meetings this year but that was with a healthier squad. Without their two top players and playing on the road today, I'm taking Portland to win and cover this contest. Play Portland. 

The Dallas Mavericks (38-39) are set to face the Los Angeles Clippers (44-32) on Friday, April 4, 2025, at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. PT). Currently holding the ninth spot in the Western Conference, the Mavericks are striving to secure a position in the play-in tournament. They recently edged out the Atlanta Hawks with a 120-118 victory on April 2, where Anthony Davis led with 34 points, including the game-winning basket. The Clippers are tied for the sixth seed in the Western Conference and have been on an impressive run, winning 10 of their last 12 games. Their latest triumph was a 114-98 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on April 2, with Kawhi Leonard contributing 28 points. The teams have split their previous two meetings this season: December 19, 2024: Clippers defeated the Mavericks 118-95. December 21, 2024: Mavericks responded with a 113-97 victory over the Clippers. Dallas Anthony Davis (PF): is questionable due to a left groin strain. Dereck Lively II (C): Out with a right ankle injury.  Anthony Davis is averaging 24.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. His availability will significantly impact the Mavericks' performance. The Clippers Kawhi Leonard is contributing 20.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. Leonard's two-way play is crucial for the Clippers' success. The Mavericks are averaging 114.3 points per game with a field goal percentage of 47.9%. The Clippers are averaging 113.5 points per game with a field goal percentage of 47.8%. The Mavericks are allowing 113.7 points per game while the Clippers are allowing 112.1 points per game. The Clippers enter the game with momentum, aiming to strengthen their playoff positioning. The Mavericks face uncertainty with key injuries, particularly concerning Anthony Davis's availability. The Clippers' defensive prowess and recent form position them as favorites in this matchup. Even if Davis plays you have to believe he won't be 100%. I'm taking the Clippers here on Friday Night. 

The San Antonio Spurs (31-44) are set to face the Denver Nuggets (47-28) at Ball Arena in Denver on Wednesday, April 2, 2025, at 6:00 PM PDT. The season series is currently tied 1-1, with each team securing a win on the other's home court earlier this year. The Spurs are on a five-game losing streak, including a 116-105 loss to the Orlando Magic on April 1. They not only play the second of a back-to-back spot here but had to travel for this game. Devin Vassell: Leading the team with 16.4 points per game. The Nuggets have won four of their last five games, including a dominant 129-93 victory over the Utah Jazz on March 28. Nikola Jokic: Averaging 29.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. Jamal Murray adding 21.6 points and 6.0 assists per game. Jamal Murray (right hamstring tightness) and Michael Porter Jr. (undisclosed) are listed as out for the upcoming game. The Spurs are averaging 114.2 points per game, 46.5% field goal percentage. The Nuggets average 120.9 points per game, 50.7% field goal percentage. The Spurs have struggled on the second night of back-to-back games, holding a 3-11 record in such situations, while the Nuggets excel with a 12-2 record.  Denver's offense, led by Jokic, presents a significant challenge for San Antonio's defense, which has allowed at least 122 points in six of their last seven road games. The Spurs had 61 points at the half last night then laid an egg in the 2nd half, scoring just 44 points and blowing a lead. It gets worse against an much better Denver team tonight. Lots of points to lay here tonight, but the Nuggets can do it against this depleted and tire Spurs club. Play Denver. 

The College Basketball Crown tournament tips off in Las Vegas with an intriguing first-round matchup between the Colorado Buffaloes (14-20) and the Villanova Wildcats (19-14). Both programs are looking to cap their seasons with a strong showing in this inaugural postseason event. Despite a tough season overall, Colorado found late momentum during the Big 12 Championship, notching impressive upsets over TCU and West Virginia before falling to Houston in the quarterfinals. That stretch demonstrated the Buffaloes’ grit and ability to play up to their competition when it matters most. Colorado averages 69.9 points per game on 44.6% shooting while allowing 71.5 points defensively. Guard Julian Hammond III leads the team in scoring with 12.5 points per game, and Andrej Jakimovski adds value on the boards and defensively. Villanova enters the tournament with a solid 19-14 record, but recent coaching changes have added an extra layer of intrigue. The Wildcats are turning to assistant coach Mike Nardi as interim head coach, and how the team responds could be a key factor in this game. Offensively, Villanova has been more efficient than Colorado, putting up 73.4 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field and an impressive 39.8% from three-point range. Defensively, they allow 67.5 points per game. Forward Eric Dixon leads the scoring attack with 23.0 points per game, with guard Wooga Poplar contributing 14.5 points per game. This game is a classic clash of tempo and efficiency. Villanova’s offensive polish, particularly from beyond the arc, will test Colorado’s perimeter defense. Villanova’s consistent shooting and experience give them the edge here tonight, especially if Dixon and Poplar find early rhythm. I'm taking Villanova in what shouldn't be a close game. 

The New Orleans Pelicans (41–32) will welcome the Charlotte Hornets (19–54) in a cross-conference matchup that holds more weight for the home team. The Pelicans are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race, looking to secure positioning in the top six and avoid the play-in. The Hornets, meanwhile, have long been eliminated from postseason contention and are shifting focus toward player development and lottery odds. New Orleans has been playing solid basketball over the past few weeks, winning six of their last eight games. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson have led the charge, with Ingram playing with poise on the wing and Williamson dominating inside. Their defense has improved lately, holding opponents under 110 points in four of their last six games. Charlotte comes into this game having lost four straight. Injuries have decimated the roster, and their offensive consistency has been a major issue. Despite that, young players like Brandon Miller and Nick Smith Jr. have shown promise and are getting extended minutes in March. The Hornets injuries: LaMelo Ball remains out with an ankle injury. Mark Williams and Gordon Hayward are also unavailable, leaving Charlotte thin on both ends of the floor. The Pelicans have a clear edge in talent, depth, and motivation. They're solid at home and have one of the more physical frontcourts in the NBA, which should dominate a short-handed Hornets team lacking size and experience. New Orleans' ability to push the pace and get easy buckets in transition may overwhelm Charlotte early. Take the Pelicans here today as I look for a double digit New Orleans win!

The No. 1 seed Florida Gators face off against the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders in a high-stakes Elite Eight showdown at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. ET. Florida rides into this game on a nine-game win streak, including a dominant 87-71 Sweet 16 victory over Maryland. The Gators showed off their depth with six players scoring in double figures and a +18 margin on the glass. They’ve been one of the tournament’s most efficient offensive teams, averaging 85.4 points per game heading into the round. Florida’s success comes from balance — several players are shooting 35.7% or better from beyond the arc — and a stingy defense that has held opponents to just 25.8% shooting from deep during the tournament. Texas Tech punched their ticket to the Elite Eight with an 85-83 overtime comeback win over Arkansas, erasing a 16-point deficit. JT Toppin, Darrion Williams, and Christian Anderson combined for 62 points, carrying the Red Raiders through a nail-biting finish. However, Texas Tech’s outside shooting has dipped in the tournament. They’ve connected on just 25.0% of their three-point attempts, down from a season average of 36.7%. The possible absence of guard Chance McMillian due to an oblique injury could also impact their rotation. The spotlight will be on how Texas Tech’s offense handles Florida’s elite defense. Florida ranks second in adjusted offensive efficiency (129.2 points per 100 possessions) and ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.9 points allowed per 100 possessions). One key battle will be at point guard: Elijah Hawkins for Texas Tech vs. Walter Clayton Jr. for Florida. Whoever controls the pace and tempo could shift the game’s direction dramatically.  I believe Tech was fortunate to come back in their win over Arkansas. That won't happen against a team like Florida. I'm taking the Gators here on Saturday. 

This Northwest Division clash features two teams at opposite ends of the Western Conference standings. The playoff-bound Denver Nuggets host the struggling Utah Jazz in what projects to be a one-sided contest on paper. Denver sits third in the Western Conference and is within striking distance of the No. 2 seed. The Nuggets are coming off a strong win over the Milwaukee Bucks, powered by Nikola Jokic’s 39-point triple-double. Jokic continues to put up MVP-caliber numbers, averaging 29.3 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. As a team, the Nuggets average 120.8 points per game (third in the NBA) and allow 117 points per game. Utah has endured a rough season and currently holds the worst record in the league. They've lost 14 of their last 15 games, including a blowout loss to Memphis in which they allowed 140 points. Rookie guard Isaiah Collier has been a bright spot, scoring 21 points in the loss. Offensively, the Jazz rank 21st in the NBA with 111.8 points per game and struggle defensively, allowing 120.1 points per game — second-worst in the league. Jokic’s return from injury has reignited Denver’s offense. Facing a porous Utah defense that has been vulnerable inside, expect Denver to feed Jokic early and often. The Jazz continue to be hampered by injuries. Jordan Clarkson is out with plantar fasciitis, John Collins is sidelined with an ankle injury, and Lauri Markkanen’s status remains uncertain due to illness. These absences severely limit Utah’s offensive firepower and depth. Denver has swept the first three meetings of the season, with convincing wins in November and December. The Nuggets have averaged 127.7 points per game across those matchups, while Utah has struggled to keep pace offensively. I don't see the Jazz being able to stay close here tonight. Yes, this is a lot of points to lay, but the Nuggets at home vs the Jazz will make it happen. Take Denver. 

The New York Knicks (44-26) are set to host the Dallas Mavericks (35-37) at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, March 25, 2025, at 7:30 PM ET. The Knicks have been in strong form, securing a decisive 122-103 victory over the Washington Wizards in their previous outing. Karl-Anthony Towns delivered an impressive performance, recording 31 points and 11 rebounds, while Mikal Bridges contributed 27 points. Despite the absence of starting point guards Jalen Brunson (ankle sprain) and Miles McBride (groin contusion), the Knicks have adapted well. Cam Payne stepped up with 13 points in his recent start, and rookie Tyler Kolek showcased his playmaking abilities, leading the team with eight assists in his first significant playing time this season. The Mavericks are navigating a challenging stretch, dealing with multiple injuries to key players. Kyrie Irving is out for the season following ACL surgery, and Anthony Davis has been sidelined since January with a groin injury, though he was recently upgraded to doubtful for the upcoming game. In their recent 123-117 win over the Detroit Pistons, Spencer Dinwiddie led with a season-high 31 points, P.J. Washington Jr. added 27 points, and Klay Thompson contributed 20 points. Despite these individual performances, the Mavericks have struggled with consistency, particularly on the road, where they are currently on a three-game losing streak. Both teams are dealing with significant absences. The Knicks' backcourt is depleted without Brunson and McBride, placing greater responsibility on Payne and Kolek. The Mavericks' offense has been impacted by the losses of Irving and Davis, relying more on role players to step up. The Knicks have been formidable at Madison Square Garden, boasting a 23-11 home record. Dallas had to play last night, winning at Brooklyn, 120-101. While the travel is long, they still need to travel to get here tonight. I'm taking the Knicks in this spot. 

The No. 4 seed Arizona Wildcats (23-12) are set to face the No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks (25-9) in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament on Sunday, March 23, 2025. The game will tip off at 6:40 PM PT at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, and will be broadcast on TBS. The Wildcats advanced with a dominant 93-65 victory over Akron. They are averaging 82.1 points per game, ranking 12th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Arizona leads the Big 12 in rebounding, averaging 36.6 boards per game. However, their season-long three-point shooting percentage stands at 32.9%, though they've improved to 42.2% over the last six games. The Ducks secured their spot with an 81-52 win over Liberty, shooting 54.4% from the field. They have won nine of their last ten games, with a defense that has surged over the past month. Oregon averages 76.4 points per game and allows 70.4 points per game.  Two old PAC-12 teams meet again but for the first time in the NCAA Tournament. I'm taking Oregon here on Sunday as my NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year. 

New York Knicks (43-26): The Knicks currently hold the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference. However, they've encountered recent struggles, notably back-to-back losses to the San Antonio Spurs and the Charlotte Hornets, teams with subpar records. A significant factor in their downturn is the absence of star point guard Jalen Brunson, sidelined due to an ankle injury. Without Brunson, the Knicks have faced challenges in offensive fluidity and defensive cohesion. Washington Wizards (15-54): The Wizards are enduring a challenging season, holding the league's worst record. They are currently on a three-game losing streak, including a recent 120-105 defeat to the Orlando Magic. Injuries have further hampered their performance, with key players like Marcus Smart, Corey Kispert, and Bilal Coulibaly sidelined. The Knicks have dominated recent matchups against the Wizards, winning the last eight encounters, including a 126-106 victory on December 30, 2024. However, their recent form without Brunson raises concerns. The Wizards, despite their struggles, have an opportunity to exploit the Knicks' current vulnerabilities. This is one game that the Knicks won't need Brunson. The Wizards had to play last night and lost at home to the Magic, 105-120. Now they have to travel to New York to face the Knicks. I'll lay the big points with the Knicks against a haggard Wizards squad. 

The NCAA Tournament's West Region features an intriguing first-round matchup between the No. 4 seed Maryland Terrapins and the No. 13 seed Grand Canyon Antelopes on Friday, March 21, 2025, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle.  Maryland Terrapins (25-8, 14-6 Big Ten) are under head coach Kevin Willard, Maryland has showcased a dynamic offense, averaging 81.7 points per game, while maintaining a solid defense, allowing 67.0 points per game. Freshman center Derik Queen leads the team with 16.3 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, earning him Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors. The backcourt is bolstered by Ja'Kobi Gillespie, who contributes 14.7 points and 5.0 assists per game. Grand Canyon Antelopes (26-7, 13-3 WAC) are coached by Bryce Drew. Grand Canyon secured its third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance by winning the WAC Tournament. The Antelopes average 79.2 points per game and allow 69.1 points per game. Senior forward JaKobe Coles leads the team with 14.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, earning the WAC Tournament's Most Outstanding Player award. Graduate guard Tyon Grant-Foster, a key player in last year's tournament run, adds experience and averages 14.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Grand Canyon's roster boasts significant postseason experience, with players like Grant-Foster and Harrison returning for a fifth year. In contrast, Maryland relies on the talent of freshman Derik Queen, making his tournament debut. This matchup pits Maryland's youthful talent against Grand Canyon's seasoned experience. I like the experience Grand Canyon brings to this game and that has a recipe for an upset. But I'll take the points with Grand Canyon. 

The Dallas Mavericks have struggled recently, losing eight of their last ten games. They average 114.7 points per game (13th in the NBA) and allow 115.1 points per game (18th in the league). Dallas has particularly struggled on the road, surrendering 126 or more points in four straight road games. The Indiana Pacers are in good shape in the standings, sitting at fifth in the Eastern Conference. They have been solid recently, amassing a 3-2 record in their past five clashes. Indiana is hard to beat at home, standing at 4-1 in their past five home games, including a win against the Bucks. Dallas Mavericks: Klay Thompson: Averaging 14.4 points per game on 42% shooting. Spencer Dinwiddie: Has been solid, amassing 18 or more points in three of his past four games.  Indiana Pacers: Pascal Siakam: Continues to shine, amassing 25 or more points in three of his past five games. Tyrese Haliburton: Has reached 20 points in two of five games on the month. The Pacers' strong home performance and the Mavericks' recent struggles suggest Have me on Indiana here on Wednesday. The should cover this line by at least 7-10 points. Play Indiana. 

The Toronto Raptors (24-44) will face the Phoenix Suns (31-37) on Monday, March 17, 2025, at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. The game is scheduled to tip off at 7:00 PM PDT. The Raptors are averaging 111.1 points per game while allowing 115.7 points per game, ranking 22nd in offense and 21st in defense. They secure 44.8 rebounds per game and have a 34.9% success rate from three-point range. The Suns average 114.4 points per game and concede 116.3 points per game, placing them 14th offensively and 22nd defensively. They average 42.5 rebounds per game and have a three-point shooting percentage of 38.3%. Raptors: RJ Barrett leads with 21.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. Scottie Barnes contributes 19.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Suns: Kevin Durant averages 26.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Devin Booker adds 25.8 points and 6.9 assists per game. The Raptors have struggled on the road, holding an 8-24 away record. The Suns, with a 19-13 home record, have shown more consistency at Footprint Center. Both teams have key players listed as questionable, which could impact the game's dynamics. The Suns' higher offensive output and home-court advantage position them favorably for this matchup. I will be on the Suns here on Monday.

The Jazz have struggled this season, holding a 15-52 record, placing them at the bottom of the Western Conference. They are currently on an eight-game losing streak, with their most recent defeat being a 126-118 loss to the Toronto Raptors. In that game, Jordan Clarkson led with 19 points, while Kyle Filipowski contributed 18 points and 11 rebounds.  The Timberwolves are in strong form, boasting a seven-game winning streak and a 39-29 record, positioning them seventh in the Western Conference. They recently secured a 118-111 victory over the Orlando Magic, overcoming an 11-point deficit entering the fourth quarter. Anthony Edwards led with 28 points, and Julius Randle added 22 points. The teams have split their season series so far. On January 30, 2025, the Timberwolves secured a decisive 138-113 victory. However, on February 28, 2025, the Jazz edged out a narrow 117-116 win. Overall, Minnesota has won seven of the last ten encounters between the two teams. My computer projections have this one as the Wolves run away with it in a 16-point route. It also looks to a 226 to 230 final total points. Wolves also at home here and that will play a big part in a Minnesota blowout win. Play Minnesota. 

The Ivy League Men's Basketball Championship is set for Sunday, March 16, 2025, featuring the top-seeded Yale Bulldogs (21-7, 13-1 Ivy) against the second-seeded Cornell Big Red (18-10, 9-5 Ivy). The game will tip off at 12 p.m. ET at the Pizzitola Sports Center in Providence, Rhode Island, with television coverage on ESPN2.

Yale has been the dominant force in the Ivy League this season, boasting a stellar 13-1 conference record. Their success is built on a foundation of strong defense and efficient offense. The Bulldogs rank 24th nationally in points scored per game (81.4) and 91st in points allowed (69.2). They also excel in field goal percentage, shooting 49.0% (11th nationally), while holding opponents to 40.1% (17th nationally). Key players include John Poulakidas, averaging 19.0 points per game, and Nick Townsend, contributing 7.3 rebounds per game. 

Cornell's high-octane offense has been a highlight this season, ranking 6th nationally with an average of 85.1 points per game. Their defense, however, has been less formidable, allowing 77.1 points per game (315th nationally). The Big Red lead the nation in effective field goal percentage, thanks to their emphasis on three-point shooting and fast-paced play. Senior guard Nazir Williams leads the team with 14.7 points per game, while forward Guy Ragland Jr. averages 5.3 rebounds. 

The two teams have faced each other twice this season, with Yale emerging victorious in both encounters. The most recent matchup on February 21, 2025, was a high-scoring affair, with Yale narrowly defeating Cornell 92-88. In that game, Yale's Nick Townsend recorded a double-double with 24 points and 11 rebounds, while Cornell's AK Okereke had a standout performance with 30 points and seven assists. 

 Both teams rely heavily on the three-point shot. Cornell's strategy emphasizes high-volume three-point attempts, while Yale boasts efficient perimeter shooting. The team that finds its rhythm from beyond the arc could gain a significant advantage. 

The Ivy League Championship promises an exciting matchup between Yale's balanced, disciplined approach and Cornell's high-scoring offense. For me I'm going to take the points in this game with this high scoring Cornell club.

The Milwaukee Bucks (37-28) are set to host the Indiana Pacers (36-28) on Saturday, March 15, 2025, at Fiserv Forum. This matchup features two Central Division rivals vying for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a dominant 126-106 home victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. They currently hold a 22-11 record at home, showcasing their strength on their home court. The Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back, having played the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night in a 112-100 win. Prior to that, they secured a narrow 115-114 home win against the Bucks on Tuesday, thanks to a clutch four-point play at the buzzer. The Pacers have a 16-18 road record, indicating some struggles away from home. The Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Damian Lillard: Contributing 25.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game.  Indiana Pacers: Pascal Siakam: Averaging 20.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Tyrese Haliburton: Providing 18.5 points and 8.9 assists per game. Bucks rank 12th in the NBA with 114.8 points per game. Pacers rank 9th, averaging 116.4 points per game. Always tough in the NBA to play the second of a back-to-back spot, but even more so when that team has to travel too like the Pacers tonight. I'll take the Bucks here on Saturday. 

The Arizona Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to clash in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals on Friday, March 14, 2025, at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. EDT. Arizona has experienced fluctuations in form recently, with five of their 11 losses occurring in the last 11 games. However, they showcased resilience by defeating Kansas 88-77 in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats average 82.0 points per game, shooting 47.1% from the field, and allow 72.1 points per game. Key players include Caleb Love, averaging 16.4 points and 3.5 assists, and Jaden Bradley, contributing 11.9 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.  The Red Raiders have been in strong form, winning 14 of their last 17 games. They narrowly edged out Baylor 76-74 in the quarterfinals. Texas Tech averages 81.1 points per game on 47.4% shooting and holds opponents to 66.8 points per game. Standout players include JT Toppin, with 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, and Chance McMillian, averaging 14.7 points and 4.2 rebounds. This season, the teams have split their meetings. Texas Tech secured a 70-54 victory in January, while Arizona responded with an 82-73 win in February. The Red Raiders' robust defense has been a cornerstone of their success, and limiting Arizona's offensive rhythm will be a priority. I'm going to be taking Texas Tech here on Friday as my Big 12 Conference Tournament Game of the  Year. 

The North Carolina Tar Heels (21-12, 12-8 ACC) are set to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (21-10, 13-7 ACC) in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday, March 13, 2025, at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, with tip-off scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. The Tar Heels have found their stride recently, winning seven of their last eight games. Their offense has been particularly potent, averaging 82.2 points per game over the last ten contests. A significant factor in their success has been improved three-point shooting, rising from 40th nationally to second over the past two months. The Demon Deacons started strong but have faced challenges lately, losing six of their last twelve games. They secured the No. 4 seed in the ACC Tournament after concluding the regular season at 21-10 overall and 13-7 in conference play. Hunter Sallis leads Wake Forest, averaging 18 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. The teams last met on January 21, 2025, with Wake Forest edging out a narrow 67-66 victory over North Carolina. North Carolina has emphasized offensive rebounding in their recent games, improving their offensive rebounding percentage significantly. This could be a decisive factor, especially considering Wake Forest's struggles with defensive rebounding, where they rank 317th nationally. Both teams are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, making this game crucial for their postseason aspirations. A victory would significantly enhance their chances of securing a tournament berth.  The Heels have been the hot team here and I like that as they come into this tournament. Take North Carolina. 

The Texas Longhorns (17-14, 6-12 SEC) are set to face the Vanderbilt Commodores (20-11, 8-10 SEC) in the first round of the Southeastern Conference (SEC) Men's Basketball Tournament on Wednesday, March 12, 2025. The game will tip off at approximately 3:30 p.m. ET at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, and will be broadcast on the SEC Network. Texas has experienced a challenging inaugural season in the SEC, finishing with a 6-12 conference record. The Longhorns have struggled recently, losing seven of their last nine games, including a 76-72 defeat to Oklahoma in their regular-season finale. Despite these setbacks, Texas boasts five Quad 1 victories and aims to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with a strong performance in the SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt concluded the regular season with a 20-11 overall record and an 8-10 mark in SEC play. The Commodores have been competitive throughout the season and are considered by some analysts to be on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament conversation. However, they enter the tournament on a two-game losing streak, having fallen to Georgia and Arkansas in their final regular-season games. The two teams met earlier this season on February 8, with Vanderbilt securing an 86-78 victory at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville. In that contest, the Commodores overcame a 10-point second-half deficit, largely due to their dominance on the offensive glass, securing 17 offensive rebounds. Both teams shot around 42% from the field, combining for 164 points despite the modest shooting percentages. Offensively, both teams have been productive, with Texas averaging 78.1 points per game and Vanderbilt 79.9 points per game. The Longhorns' reliance on mid-range shots and isolation plays, primarily through Johnson, has been a double-edged sword, leading to both high-scoring games and inconsistent offensive performances. I like Vandy in this matchup for Wednesday. 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-8, 14-4 WCC) are set to face the Saint Mary's Gaels (28-4, 17-1 WCC) in the West Coast Conference (WCC) Championship game on Tuesday, March 11, 2025. The matchup will take place at Orleans Arena in Paradise, Nevada, with tip-off scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET (6:00 p.m. PT).  The Bulldogs, under head coach Mark Few, finished second in the WCC regular season standings. They advanced to the championship game after defeating San Francisco 85-76 in the semifinals.  Led by head coach Randy Bennett, the Gaels secured the top seed in the WCC with a stellar conference record. They reached the championship by overcoming Pepperdine with a decisive 74-59 victory in the semifinals.  Gonzaga Bulldogs are led by Ryan Nembhard. The sophomore guard has been instrumental in Gonzaga's offense, showcasing exceptional playmaking abilities throughout the season.  Saint Mary's Gaels is led by Augustas Marciulionis. The two-time WCC Player of the Year leads the Gaels with consistent scoring and leadership on the court. Saint Mary's has had the upper hand this season, winning both regular-season encounters against Gonzaga: January 18, 2025: Saint Mary's 62, Gonzaga 58 (at Saint Mary's). February 15, 2025: Saint Mary's 74, Gonzaga 67 (at Gonzaga). Saint Mary's methodical style and strong defense have been effective against Gonzaga's high-paced offense this season. The Gaels lead the nation in rebounding percentage (57.4%) and excel at controlling the game's tempo. Both teams will make the NCAA tourney, but St Mary's will take the conference tourney tonight. Play St Mary's. 

The No. 3 seed Maine Black Bears (18-13, 10-6 America East) will host the No. 6 seed UMass Lowell River Hawks (17-14, 6-10 America East) in the America East Tournament quarterfinals on Saturday, March 8, 2025. The game is scheduled for 6:00 PM ET at The Pit in Memorial Gymnasium, Orono, Maine, and will be broadcast on ESPN+.  Maine has achieved its highest seed since the 2010-2011 season, marking significant progress under head coach Chris Markwood. The Black Bears boast the second-best scoring defense in the conference, allowing just 66.5 points per game. Offensively, they average 71.6 points per game, with a scoring margin of +5.1. The River Hawks have experienced a season of close contests, reflected in their 6-10 conference record. They possess a potent offense, averaging 80 points per game, ranking 46th nationally. However, their defense has been less robust, conceding 74.2 points per game. Maine is led by Kellen Tynes. The senior guard earned his third consecutive America East Defensive Player of the Year award, leading the nation with 97 steals this season. He also contributes 12.7 points and 4.6 assists per game. UMass Lowell is led by Quinton Mincey: The junior forward leads the River Hawks with 16.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, earning Third-Team All-Conference honors. Maine and UMass Lowell have faced each other twice this season, with both games decided by a single point: Should be another great, close game. I'll take the points in what should come down to the wire. 

The Big South Conference Men's Basketball Tournament will feature a quarterfinal matchup between the No. 3 seed Winthrop Eagles (21-10, 11-5 Big South) and the No. 6 seed Longwood Lancers (18-13, 7-9 Big South) on Friday, March 7, 2025. The game is scheduled to tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Freedom Hall Civic Center in Johnson City, Tennessee. Winthrop enters the tournament with a potent offense, averaging 85.0 points per game, which ranks them among the top 10 nationally. They have been efficient from the field, shooting 47.4%, and have held opponents to a 44.2% shooting percentage. The Eagles are led by Kelton Talford, who averages 15.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, making him one of the top players in the Big South Conference. Winthrop has momentum, having won four of their last five games, including a notable 103-90 victory over UNC Asheville on March 1. The defending Big South champions, Longwood, have had an up-and-down season but possess the experience of performing well in tournament settings. They average 78.2 points per game with a field goal percentage of 46.6%. Michael Christmas leads the Lancers in scoring, averaging 12.1 points per game, and is a key contributor from beyond the arc, making 2.1 three-pointers per game. Longwood has shown resilience, bouncing back from a loss to Winthrop on February 27 with a convincing 83-66 win over South Carolina Upstate on March 1. Winthrop and Longwood faced each other twice during the regular season, with Winthrop winning both encounters. The most recent matchup on February 27 resulted in a decisive 85-59 victory for the Eagles at Longwood's home court. The winner of this quarterfinal game will advance to the semifinals to face the winner of the matchup between No. 2 seed UNC Asheville and No. 7 seed Charleston Southern. Take Winthrop here on Friday with their potent offense and dominance against Longwood this season. 

The Detroit Pistons (35-27) are set to face the Los Angeles Clippers (32-28) on Wednesday, March 5, 2025, at the Intuit Dome. The Pistons, currently holding the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, have been on a remarkable run, winning 10 of their last 11 games. Their recent 134-106 victory over the Utah Jazz showcased their offensive prowess and defensive solidity. Despite the season-ending injury to star guard Jaden Ivey, who suffered a broken left fibula on January 1, the Pistons have demonstrated resilience. Cade Cunningham has stepped up, averaging 25.3 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, while new additions Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. have bolstered the team's performance. The Clippers, conversely, have struggled recently, losing six of their last seven games and slipping to the ninth seed in the Western Conference. Injuries have played a significant role in their downturn, with key players like Ben Simmons (knee), Derrick Jones Jr. (knee), and Norman Powell (hamstring) sidelined. Kawhi Leonard continues to lead the team, but the Clippers have found it challenging to maintain consistency. In their most recent matchup on February 24, the Pistons secured a 106-97 victory over the Clippers, holding them to 40% shooting. I like the Pistons here on Wednesday as they continue their momentum and defense to win. 

The Philadelphia 76ers (21-38) are set to face the Minnesota Timberwolves (33-29) on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The 76ers are coming off a home loss last night to Portland, 102-119. The team has struggled overall, posting a 1-10 record over their last 11 games. Compounding their challenges, star center Joel Embiid is out for the season, and key players Kyle Lowry (hip), Paul George (groin), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (illness) are listed as questionable for the upcoming game. In contrast, the Timberwolves are coming off a dominant 116-98 win against the Phoenix Suns, highlighted by Anthony Edwards' 44 points, five rebounds, and seven assists. Despite a recent 4-6 stretch over their last ten games, they hold the 8th spot in the Western Conference. However, Minnesota will be without center Rudy Gobert (back) for this matchup. The Timberwolves' strong defense, ranked 5th in adjusted defensive rating, combined with the 76ers' offensive struggles, suggests Minnesota is well-positioned to capitalize on Philadelphia's vulnerabilities. Wolves have to lay a lot here on Tuesday, but Philly had to play last night and travel today so they likely will be tired. I'm taking Minnesota here on Tuesday.

The Arkansas Razorbacks (16-11, 5-9 SEC) are set to host the Texas Longhorns (16-11, 5-9 SEC) on Wednesday, February 26, 2025 at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to strengthen their NCAA Tournament prospects, with each currently positioned on the tournament bubble. Earlier this month, Arkansas secured a 78-70 victory over Texas in Austin. The Razorbacks built a substantial lead, extending to 23 points in the second half, before withstanding a late Longhorns rally. Guard Johnell Davis led Arkansas with 24 points in that contest. The Razorbacks are coming off a significant 92-85 win over No. 16 Missouri, showcasing their offensive capabilities. Johnell Davis (G): Averaging 15.0 points per game over the last eight games, Davis has been pivotal in Arkansas's recent performances. Adou Thiero (G): Leading the team with 15.7 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Arkansas averages 76.1 points per game and allows 69.4 points per game. The Longhorns have faced challenges recently, losing four of their last five games, including a surprising 84-69 defeat to South Carolina. Tre Johnson (G): Leading the SEC with 20.2 points per game, Johnson has been a consistent offensive force, averaging 28.3 points over the last three games. Texas averages 78.3 points per game and allows 69.8 points per game. Both teams share identical overall and conference records, intensifying the stakes of this contest. Arkansas's home-court advantage at Bud Walton Arena, combined with their recent victory over a ranked opponent looks to be the difference. I'll take the home team here tonight with Arkansas. 

The Indiana Pacers (32-24) are set to host the Toronto Raptors (18-39) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday, February 26, 2025. The Pacers aim to rebound from a recent 125-116 loss to the Denver Nuggets, while the Raptors are coming off a loss last night at home to the Celtics, 101-111. Indian Injury report has Myles Turner (C): Out with a neck injury. Isaiah Jackson (C): Out for the season due to a calf injury. T.J. McConnell (PG): Questionable with a right ankle sprain. Tyrese Haliburton (PG): Questionable due to left groin soreness.  The Toronto Raptors injuries: Brandon Ingram (SF): Out with a left ankle sprain. P.J. Tucker (SF): Out for personal reasons. Ulrich Chomche (PF): Out for the season following a right knee injury.  Gradey Dick (SG): Probable despite a right thigh contusion. Jakob Poeltl (C): Questionable with a right hip pointer. The Pacers average 114.4 points per game and allow 117.6 points per game. The Raptors average 113.4 points per game and allow 119.5 points per game. The Pacers have to play the second of a back-to-back spot here tonight which is tough enough. In addition, they have to travel for this game. I'm taking the Pacers here tonight. 

The Golden State Warriors are set to host the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday, February 25, 2025 at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Since acquiring Jimmy Butler on February 8, the Warriors have significantly bolstered their defense, leading to victories in five of their last six games. With Butler's addition, the team now ranks first in steals (11.5 per game) and allows the second-fewest points in the paint (42.3 per game). Stephen Curry continues to lead the offense, recently scoring 30 points in a decisive 126-102 win over the Dallas Mavericks. However, forward Jonathan Kuminga remains sidelined due to a right ankle sprain sustained on January 4.  The Hornets have faced challenges this season, exacerbated by significant injuries. Forward Grant Williams is out for the season with a torn ACL, and guard Brandon Miller recently underwent season-ending wrist surgery. Despite these setbacks, the team looks to LaMelo Ball to spearhead the offense. Ball is expected to play against the Warriors, possibly with a minor minutes restriction. The Warriors' recent defensive improvements and home-court advantage position them favorably against the injury-plagued Hornets. This is a lot of points to lay but I expect the Warriors to have little issue covering it. Play Golden State.