Cincinnati +3.5 2.2% play 

Georgia -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Revenge!  I rarely use this angle, which hasn’t worked in handicapping for over a decade, but this is on the rare occasion I think it is a factor.  Georgia should have been in the college football playoff last year, but their lone loss was to Alabama.  Georgia has had this game circled all summer long.  Georgia has been tested already this season against Kentucky on the road and Clemson.  The Clemson win really looks a lot better now, and the Kentucky clunker is something we have seen from Georgia in years past and I’m not concerned.  We saw it last year against Missouri, and they bounced back to dominate Top 10 Ole Miss 52-17. In 2022 they struggled against Missouri again and bounced back to win 42-10 against Auburn.  

Alabama has not been tested, and I saw a lot of red flags in their game against South Florida.  Alabama has faced an average ranked ypp defense ranking 115th, and their opponent ypp differential is -2 yards per play.  Compare that with Georgia who has faced an average opponent ypp differential of +0.85.  Alabama’s offense lives and dies on the explosive pass play, which I think is something a great defense can stop.  Georgia is #1 in explosive plays allowed and #2 in passing success rate defense. Alabama has had their number in the Nick Saban era, and I have all the respect for their new coach, but I think Georgia is on a mission this year, and it starts with a road win at Alabama tonight. 

Michigan State +24 3.3% play 

LA Monroe / Troy Under 46.5 2.2% play 

Kent State / Eastern Michigan Under 45.5 2.2% play 

UNLV -130 3% Play

We have a team that is going to rally around the backup QB after Matthew Sluka has decided to red shirt and take his talents to another team.  UNLV is a team with a lot to play with this year and the fact that Sluka did this is just amazing to me, but that is what college football is these days.  I have all the confidence in Hajj-Malik Williams who almost beat out Sluka in camp.  Reading the UNLV player quotes it seems they are highly motivated to win despite Sluka leaving. I think we get that extra effort here, and I love that they are coming off a bye, and finally back at home as they had two tough road games against Power 4 opponents.  

Arkansas +195 2% ML dog of the week

Both of these teams are 3-1 and 1-0 in the SEC heading into this neutral site game at Jerry World.  I missed the line move last week with Arkansas against Auburn and decided not to play them, but this week i’m just going to take them on the money line.  Arkansas and Auburn are pretty much the same team from a run first offense, and they have similar #’s as far as rushing success and rushing success defense.  I think Arkansas has the better QB who can be multi dimensional, and we saw that in their lone loss against Oklahoma State on the road where they had nearly a +300 yard advantage and a 21-0 lead that they blew.  Arkansas is also the better third down offense and defense, and I think the Aggies are still trying to figure themselves out under the new head coach MIke Elko.  Not sure who is going to play at QB for the Aggies today, but I give the edge to Arkansas defense who ranks 26th in explosive plays allowed, and is very good holding opponents to less than 50% TD’s in the red zone.

Ball State / JMU Over 56.5 2.2% play 

Baylor -3 2.2% play 

BYU is struggling to run the ball, and their QB has thrown three interceptions in 2 road games against suspect defenses.  Baylor’s defense should really keep them in this game and this is a critical must win game for them with two road games on deck.  They were extremely unfortunate to lose at Colorado last week after they fumbled going into the end zone late in the game, and gave up a hail mary to lose in the end.  On the flip side BYU despite what their final score showed were outgained by over 150 yards, and benefited from a lot of fluky plays at home, but heading out on the road for an early game in warmer weather where Baylor has an under rated home field advantage.  I would have loved to get this at under a field goal, but I think Baylor wins by a TD!

Virginia Tech +17.5 2.2% play

This is a classic buy low sell high situation on Friday night.  Miami comes firing into this game 4-0 with the Heisman Trophy favorite Cam Ward.  However, a deeper look and who have they really played? The road game at Florida does not look as impressive now with Florida really struggling and the win against South Florida was a bit misleading as South Florida lost their starting QB and the backup ARrchie had two turnovers.  Meanwhile Virginia Tech has already lost two games as a favorite.  Week 1 against Vanderbilt on the road looks better and better as Vanderbilt recently took top 10 Missouri to OT on the road, Rutgers is undefeated, and they beat an Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road. 

Miami's offense has looked great, but they have played an average opponent yard per play defense ranking 122nd.  Their average opponent yards per play differential is -3 yards per play.  Virginia Tech still has a top 50 pass defense, and a top 10 pass rush which could make this game different.  Virginia Tech likes to run the ball and shorten the game, 111th in second per play, and I just feel this amount of points is too much for a team that has all the confidence.  We have seen this story for Miami before before Cristobal and with him.

Iowa -135 3% play 

Bowling Green +22.5 1.1% free play 

Oklahoma +7 -120 2.5%

East Carolina / Liberty Over 52.5 2.2% play 

UTEP/Col St Under 49.5 3.3% play

Both teams really struggle to get explosive plays, and I'm very concerned from how Colorado State looked against Colorado on offense last week as their star WR Horton was not 100%, which is a huge impact on the offense.  UTEP's offense is outside the top 100 in yards per play, and there is weather to be dealing with here with sustained winds of over 15mph, which I think leads to a more conservative play call style in this one.  Take the under 49. 

Utah +2 2.2% play 

I'm not at all concerned about the weather that many are making a big deal about for Utah.  Utah coming from eleveation, which helps with fitness.  Adding the 98 degree temperatures will be a challenge for everyone, but Utah playing in the PAC 12 was not immune to traveling to hot places to play with games in Arizona.  I just really trust the Utah head coach a lot.  This team was picked by many to win the Big 12, while Oklahoma State has been impressive, their game against Arkansas was very misleading.  Oklahoma State has had a head coaching advantage in all of these games, and the half time adjustments have proven that. This will be the first game they do not have a coaching advantage.  This should be a fun game with two 7 year QB's with the return of Cam Rising "supposedly," for which I'm still a bit suspicous, but he is listed as probably instead of questionable.  The only reason this is not a larger plays is because Whittingham seems to like to play these injury games. 

Navy +10 2.2% play 

Michigan +4.5 2.2% play

They were a double digit favorite in the summer, and I understand things have not looked good for Michigan of late, and USC off a bye.  USC is riding the hype from defeating LSU in the opener, a game we had USC in, but really LSU has not looked that great and nearly lost outright as a double digit favorite to South Carolina just a week ago.  I’m not sure I’m buying all the way in on the USC offense, which will have to be very good to cover this spread on the road against a very good defense that has to show up here.  I think with another game in the books and another game to learn from the defense is poised to have one of their better games.  Offensively is where the problem is for Michigan and they’ll go back to Orji at QB relying on the run game, which tells me that this game will be slowed down, and Michigan is going to try to control it.

Georgia Tech +10 2.2% play

Stanford +8.5 2.2% play 

Syracuse getting a lot of love, and now ranked in the top 25, for what?  A team that’s ranked 121st in PFF tackling 107th in PFF coverage, 113th in rushing success defense, and 105th rushing success rate.  This team is as one dimensional as you can be with a rookie head coach.  They have the QB in McCord who transferred in from Ohio State, and has looked great, but I just feel a little too much hype.  Syracuse is great in their building on Friday night’s as a dog, but as a favorite, and now ranked, well that’s a different story.  Much is being made of the travel spot for the Cardinal with a 2100 mile flight, but early in the season, and off a bye, I believe this is a non factor.

UAB/Miss St Over 57 2.2% play 

TCU -1 3.3% PLAY 

UCF was just 2-4 on the road last year and still learning to play in the Big 12.  I really like the additions that TCU has made on the coaching staff this year, and for this game there is a lot of familiarity.  DC Andy AValos came over from Boise State who faced UCF last year and held them to 18 points at home.  OC Kendal Briles was the OC at Arkansas last year and helped Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson the last few years develop into the QB he is today.  Jefferson will be the UCF QB here, and I think it's a huge edge to TCU who also has Sonny Dykes as the headman.  TCU run defense has been very good, and that will be the key against UCF.  Not sure why TCU went to +2 earlier, but when limits increased this completely moved to TCU being the favorite again. 

UCLA +3.5 3.3% PLAY

Indiana getting a lot of love right now, but why?  They beat FIU and they beat Western Carolina.  Curt Cignetti comes over from James Madison, but he's still a first year coach, while Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke has looked good this will be a different task going on the road for the first time, crossing time zones, and facing a UCLA team with an extra week of preparation.  The only data point on UCLA is their 16-13 win at Hawaii, but there are a lot of logistics of going to Hawaii and for a first time head coach in Foster that must have been a real challenge.  He also was without two starting tackles and some other players for the game that will be back for their Big 10 opener.  We have a relatively low total here, and I expect this to be a battle. 

Colorado State +7.5 3.3% play

This is a revenge game that went to double over time last year despite Colorado State turning the ball over 4xfr.  I don't understand why Colorado continues to be over rated.  Their offensive and defensive front issues are not going away this week, and there is only so much Shadeur Sanders can do.  Colorado State has to be playing this one with a chip on their shoulder, and l trust Jay Norvell to come up with a game plan that will give Colorado's defense a lot of issues. This Colorado STate team has multiple NFL prospects led by WR Tory Horton who had 16 catches for 133 yards in last year's meeting.  I'm starting to think all the attention on this Colorado team that is brought on by their head coach is getting to them, and the message of swag must be getting old.

Arkansas/UAB Over 60 2.2% play 

I think Arkansas will be able to move the ball at will on this UAB defense that has not looked great at all.  UAB also playing at a very fast pace much like Arkansas so far this year.  I expect a lot of points by Arkansas and this total is just a bit low according to my data. 

East Carolina +105 2% play

East Carolina 2-0 looking to go 3-0 at home on Saturday. Mike Houston brought in Ole Miss co-OC to run the offense and they are going fast.  I think they will give the App State defense some issues, as App State just gave up over 60 points to a Clemson offense that has not been very good the last few years.  App State's run defense in particular is a question here giving up 183 yards in their first game to EAst Tenn State, and then 252 yards to Clemson.  East Carolina has dominated holding their first two opponents to under 100 yards, and their win against Old Dominion on the road was much more impressive than the final scoreboard of 20-14, as they were +200 yards in the game.  Old Dominion nearly upset South Carolina on the road in week 1 and are a solid team.  East Carolina also playing for revenge as they led 28-22 in last year's game before giving up the final 21 points to App State.  Expect East Carolina's conditioning to be the difference in this year's game.

Purdue +8 2.2% play

I don't think this is an over reaction to Notre Dame's loss last week against Northern Illinois.  Notre Dame goes back on the road to face a tough defense at Purdue under Ryan Walters.  Purdue has the extra week of freshness and preparation.  Purdue's offense is led by a veteran QB in Hudson Card, and I think this game will come down to the wire, because Purdue should hold up well enough against hte run.  Notre Dame's transfer QB Riley Leonard has also not looked like himself. I don't know if it's the young geling offensive line, but he seems to have lost all confidence.  His throws have been way off target, and I think Purdue should really be able to focus on the run to force them into 3rd and long.  T

Florida/Texas AM Over 45 2.2% play 

This is the Aggies first road game, and giving up 23 points to Notre Dame at home certainly is not a good luck at the moment.  A&M's defensive weakness is their secondary, and with less of an ability to get a pass rush going on the road I expect Florida to be able to move the ball through the air on the Aggies.  Graham Mertz probable for this week's game, but 5* freshman DJ Lagway is ready to take snaps as well.  Mike Elko as a head coach on the road has an average total score of 58 points, with only 2 of those 11 going under 45 total points.  Billy Napier is a good offensive mind, and QB coach and they have scored 20+ points in 13 of their last 16 home games.  The Miami game was not a good luck to open the season, but expect the Gators to bounce back, and they certainly can't rely on their defense so Napier has to come up with something here. Texas A&M is 33rd in seconds per play.  Connor Weigman may not play at QB, but the play here is based more on Florida's inability to stop the run. 

LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 1.1% play 

Tulsa +18 2.2% play

Tulsa has nearly pulled the upset here in back to back years, while Oklahoma State is 2-0, they are a very miselading 2-0 getting outgained by over a yard per play in their first two games.  Oklahoma State will very much be okay just getting by and moving on to the rest of their schedule with Utah and Kansas State on deck. This game means much more to Tulsa here and they heave proven that in years past against better Oklahoma State teams. 

UNLV +9 2.2% PLAY

This is a revenge game for UNLV after losing in the bowl game last year 49-36.  Barry Odom has done a great job here recruiting and bringing in talent and they are one of the favorites in the Mountain West this year.  Kansas with Lance Leopold has been a different team, but I have questions about this team after losing to an Illinois team that was expected to be down this year.  This is far too many points in my opinion.  Jalon Daniels at QB does not seem to be the same guy here without OC Andy Kotelnicki who left Kansas to Penn STate.  I question whether its the offense or just the fact that Daniels has been hurt so many times in the past.  Either way I think this game will stay close, and I've been more impressed with UNLV's win at Houston to start the year after we just saw them nearly upset Oklahoma. 

Arizona State +3 2.2% play

I could fall on my sword here, but I think the line movement is not warranted.  I understand the short week, and the love for Texas State, but really waht has Texas State proven really?  What do we really know about these teams to warrant this kind of a line move?  It's one thing for a group of 5 team to be hosting as an under dog against a Power 4 school, but now as a favorite there is much more pressure.

I really like ARizona State's head coach Kenny Dillingham, and although they went 3-9 last year they had many issues with their offensive line, and QB's that limited them for most of the year.  We have already seen them win big against an inferior opponent and then back it up with a big win against an SEC opponent last week.  I love the way they have been able to take care of the ball, and if they can continue to do that they will win this game.  They know their under dogs, and Dillingham is very vocal about proving people wrong.  

Tx TEch /Wash St Over 66 2.2% play 

Nebraska -7 2.2% play 

Tennessee / NC state Over 60.5 3.3% play

Tennessee will continue to play fast as they have in the past, and they look like they have another star at QB with Nico Iamaleava, and of course he looked good vs an FCS team, but Chattanooga is actually a pretty good FCS team so I am taking the performance seriously.  NC State's defense really struggled in week 1 and I think they'll have more issues this week, and Tennesee's strengh along the offensive line will travel well for this night game at NC State. NC State's offense led by McCall should be able to take advantage of Tennessee's weaknes, which is their secondary.  McCall is a very experienced QB that I trust to move the chains consistently throughout this game.  NC State likely to be chasing the points, and I expect a bit of a shootout in this game. 

Virginia +1.5 2.2% play 

Iowa -140 3% play 

ML favorite play of the day.  Points will come at a premium in this one, and paying a juiced -2.5 is not worth it when Iowa very well could win by 1 point.  Although there is a glimmer of hope for the Iowa offense this season I still do not trust them, but the defense is picking up where it left off, and Iowa has owned Iowa State who honestly did not impress in week 1.  Iowa has the edge on special teams, and defense and I think they should win this one. 

Northern Illinois +28 2.2% 

Army +135 3% Dog of the week

Arkansas +10 3.3% play

I trust Sam Pittman, and even though he's on the hot seat after a 4-8 campaign there were 5 games that he lost by 7 points or less last year.  I like what I saw last week from Boise State transfer Taylen Green at QB, and he fits in perfectly with what Bobby Petrino wants to do on offense, and I think Arkansas could be a darling dog in the early season.  Oklahoma State has been a very good team over the years, and I really like thier HC, but the defense really was poor last year and this is an Oklahoma State offense that relies heavily on their star RB Gordon, which typically results in closer games.  Arkansas is very strong up front, and should be able to keep this game within reach or even pull out the upset. 

USC +4.5 3.3% PLAY 

LSU is losing a lot this year including Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two NFL WR's along with their offensive coordinator.  LSU's defense was not very impressive last year and lose 6 starters, but upgrade at defensive coordinator, but I don't see the upgrade playing dividends in game one against one of the best offensive minds in Lincoln Riley.

USC also losing talent on the offensive side of the ball, but the offensive line is as strong as ever, and QB Miller Moss threw 6 TD's in their bowl game, and Riley has always been able to get the most out of his QB's.  Where I am worried for USC is on the defensive side of the ball, and while we also may not see the improvement in game 1, the DC upgrade with D'Anton Lynn from UCLA should show up throughout the season.  They also brough in a winner from the FCS in Matt Entz to help with the linebackers.

I think we will see an entertaining game, but a game that USC has a real shot at winning, which is why I'll back them here. 

Notre Dame / Tex Am Under 47.5 2.2% play 

Texas AM -145 3% play 

Northwestern -3.5 3% play

Nebraska -27.5 2% play

Miami -2.5 2.2% play

Penn State -7 -120 2.5% play 

Stanford +8.5 1.1% play 

Washington +6 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this line is disrespect for Washington, but also the PAC 12, which has proven that they were one of the better conferences this year, which hasn’t always been the case.  The PAC 12 has always done well against the Big 10 for whatever reason, and actually Michigan is only 24-43 straight up vs. the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is 3-1 this year.  It may be relevant, because Michigan just does not really face quality passing teams like Washington.  They may face an efficient passing attack, but nobody that is as good as Washington nor throws as much as Washington.

The story line is that Washington has not faced a defense this good, and Michigan has not faced an offense this good, but the real story should be that Washington faced 6 top tier defenses and went 6-0, and scored 30+ points in 5 of those games.  Michigan really only faced, Alabama, Ohio State, and neither team had an elite passing QB.  Michigan’s average opponent offense ranks 90.58, compare that with Washington’s defense getting to face an average offense ranking 53rd.  

Why is this number so large, and it comes down the the advance metrics, which has Washington’s overall numbers are not as good as Michigan, but there were games where Penix was hurt, and this team was not healthy.  They were much healthier and really dominated Texas, a team that you could argue has a very similar defense to Michigan.  I think Washington is really going to give Michigan’s defense issues, I think Michigan’s offense could control the game with their rushing attack, but I don’t trust McCarthy or Harbough as much as I trust Penix and Deboer.  They have been in many tight games this season, and have found all kinds of ways to win games, including last week when they nearly choked away a victory.  Penix faced Michigan when he was at Indiana and won the game without Deboer as his coach, and Deboer faced Michigan and lost without Penix so there is some familiarity here although not as relevant with different coaches.  I think the referee assignment also will lead to a higher scoring game

Washington/Michigan over 56 2.2% play

Washington +4 5.5% max NCAAF POD

Washington has won all different ways this season, and still have not gotten the respect they deserve.  Texas is getting a ton of respect for beating Alabama way back when, and they navigated their way through the Big 12 after losign in the Red River Rivalry.  Each team had to overcome adversity, but Washington did it without losing, and they did it more impressively in my opinion beating Oregon 2x, winning in poor weather, with injured receivers.  They won with defense when they needed to, and they won with the running game when they needed.  They clearly in my opinion are not a one dimensional team and this is the best offense Texas has faced all year long.  Washington has the better YPP differential against a tougher schedule just by a slim margin and I would say the PAC 12 was better than the Big 12 this season.  We saw Arizona beat Oklahoma, Iowa State lose to Memphis yesterday.  USC's win over Louisville was impressive for the PAC 12 as well so at the end of the day I think this game will be close, and I trust Penix way more than I trust Ewers. 

Alabama +2 4.4% play 

These teams met in 2020, while Alabama was 7.5 point favorite, and now they area  2, 2.5 point dog in the span of 4 years it is a 10 point move and Alabama dominated that game.  Obviously a lot has changed since that game, but lets be honest 10 points in favor of Michigan is a bit crazy.  Michigan has faced a weak schedule this season, and the Big 10 has not looked good in these bowl games - Penn State, and Ohio State both lost to SEC teams as favorites.  Alabama has the better coach, especially with extra time, while Jim Harbough has really struggled in this spot against top 10 teams so numbers aside Alabama clearly has the edge with their coaching staff.

Michigan’s defense ranks 4th, but their average opponent ypp rank is 94th.  I think they are in for a culture shock here facing an Alabama offense that really hit its strides down the stretch has all kinds of ways to beat you with the explosive pass play, the mobile QB, and an offensive line that really improved as the season went on.  This Alabama team is better than the TCU team that beat Michigan a season ago.  The SEC has really dominated the Big 10 in the bowl games and until that changes I really could not lay the points with a Big Ten team as a favorite at this point.

Wyoming -165 5.5% MAX POD

Auburn/Maryland Under 47 2.2% play 

Ole Miss +4.5 2.2% play 

Both teams are excited to be here, and have limited opt outs. Penn State had 6 players declar for the NFL draft that are traveling, but I question whether or not they will play a lot in this game.  James Franklin the last two times he has faced the SEC in a bowl game has lost to teams they arguably should have beaten.  In 2018 they were 4.5 point favorites over Kentucky in the bowl game they had a massive ypp differential edge over the regular season, but trailed 27-7 before making the final respectful losing 27-24.  In 2021 season they were a 3.5 point dog to Arkansas, and lost 24-10.  People don’t like hearing it, and it seems square to say, but the SEC is far better than the Big 10.  They have backed it up going 66-35 in bowl games +5.6 points per game. After last night’s no show by Ohio State I don’t have any confidence in the Big Ten, and feel like the conference might have been down this season quite a bit despite the praise it has gotten. 

Lets get to the match up, because both teams had similar seasons where they had a great season, but could not get past the top 2 teams in their conferences.  Ole Miss losing to Alabama & Georgia, and Penn State losing to Ohio State and Michigan.  Ole Miss gets to face an offense that has had its struggles this year ranking 73rd in ypp, and when they faced a non top 50 offense they went 6-0.  Ole Miss has to face a top defense, but looking at the defense from Penn state their average opponent rushing ypc is 83rd, there average opponent ypp offense is 72.  Ole Miss went 2-2 and put up 38 and 37 points, but struggled vs. Georgia and Alabama.  We could see the same struggles here today, but it’s worth noting both Alabama and Georgia have top tier offenses something Penn State can not claim on a consistent basis. 

Penn State are bullies.  Their #s are inflated, their ATS numbers are inflated.  James Franklin loves to lay it on late, and if there is an opportunity for him to cover this spread he will do it.  Penn State going up against top offenses and there has only been 3 has gone 1-2, with their lone win coming against West Virginia before they were a top offense to open the season.  To Me this should be a tight game throughout, and I think Ole Miss has a shot to win the game in the end. I think Ole Miss is clearly in the weight class of Penn State and these games have not gone well for Franklin in the past.

Ohio State +1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Memphis / Iowa State Over 57 3.3% play 

Both teams have opt outs/injuries in the secondary that will really hurt their defense. For Iowa State they lose an NFL Corner in TJ Tampa, and their starting Safety Malik Verdon, and Memphis pass first offense, which will have a full compliment of weapons and a very experienced Seth Hanigan should have no problem putting up points on Iowa State in the LIberty Bowl, a place they are very familiar with

Memphis defense is already suspect, and they too have issues in the secondary with 3 guys missing this game including starting S CAmeron Smith, a big blow to this defense.  I expect Iowa State to really play free and they are the #1 explosive offense and really showed down the stretch what this offense can look like next year. 

Kentucky +3.5 1.1% Free play

Clemson against top run defenses this year 1-3.  kentucky ranks 16th in ypc and 42nd in rushing success rate.  Clemson should maybe not be favored in this game as they have many players on defense opting out.  Kentucky a well coached team, and when going up agaisnt a bad offense, which Clemson is as they rank 99th in ypp have gone 4-1.  I think Kentucky has a chance to win outright. 

Oklahoma / Arizona Under 62.5 3.3% play 

Kansas State -2.5 2.2% play 

I think Kansas State will be motivated to get a win here despite the opt outs. NC State has a few key opt outs as well, and it’s not like they have an offense that can run away with a game.  Kansas State is well coached, and I doubt NC State can really take advantage of their weakness which is vs. the run, as NC State ranks 89th in ypc, and 107th in rushing success rate.  Kansas State is stout in pass defense, and has the ability to force turnovers too, and Brennan Armstrong is always good for a couple of those. 

I’m more excited to see the highly touted QB Avery Johnson take over at QB for Kansas State.  I think he will really stretch this NC State defense with his legs, and it will make for a very entertaining game, but at the end of the day. I just think Kansas State played in the gfar tougher conference and has better #’s against tougher competition, and after the last two Bowl seasons facing an SEC team they finally get to face a weaker opponent out of the ACC.  Dave Doeren gets a ton of credit at NC State, but if you ask me he’s kind of underperformed, and their last 3 bowl games have gone 0-3. 

Rutgers -117 3.5% play 

BC/SMU Under 49.5 3.3% play 

Oklahoma State +110 2% play 

usc +7 -120 2.5% play

Two offensive minded coaches going head to head with key opt outs.  Louisville will be without their two best offensive players in Thrash & Jordan, which are two huge losses.  I don’t see Jack Plummer as the type of guy that can take advantage, and USC did face Plummer a season ago so there is some familiarity.  

USC obviously not the season they wanted, but I think they are a bit desperate for a win, and when I say “they” I mean the coaching staff and Lincoln Riley.  They really don’t have the luxury of cruising and looking to next year.  They need to win and with 20 opt outs it’s prove it time.  I think the offense will be just fine, and that means this spread is too much in my opinion when you factor in the ACC has long had problems against the PAC 12.  The PAC 12 since 2010 is actually 22-4 vs. the ACC, and USC FACED 4 TOP 15 teams while Louisville only faced 2.  Their common opponent was Notre Dame, but USC -5 TO margin while Louisville +4.  

Lincoln Riley has got to put a good showing here.  This game is on the west coast, and I don’t care who the QB is he typically will have his offense ready.  Louisville’s defense has been good, but when facing a top offense they have gone 3-2 with only 1 game covering this spread which was the game against Notre Dame where they were +4 TO margin.

West Virginia -6.5 2.2% play 

Kansas -10 3.3% play 

UNLV has faced three top tier offenses this year and have gone 0-3 in those games losing by 24, 28, and 6.  I think Kansas can put up a ton of points in this one, and will be motivated to do so. Kansas has not won a bowl game since 2008, and lost last year by 3 points to a much better team in Arkansas from the SEC.  Here they get to face UNLV from the Group of 5, and while UNLV has had a great season under Barry Odom, much like the Mountain West Conference Championship game they are just happy to be here.  Kansas should be motivated to win, and their offense is elite ranking top 25 in both passing and rushing, and explosive plays.  Look for them to cover this spread. 

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I think this game offers a ton of variance to be honest, when you have two teams that are very similar in the fact that they play fast, rely on explosive plays have good quality mobile QBs, with defenses that really struggle ranking outside the top 100 in success rate, while the offenses are both in the top 50 in success rate offense.  Both offenses struggle with turnovers ranking 102nd, and 103rd in % of possessions ending in turnovers, but I like Georgia Tech who has been better at forcing turnovers.  They also seem to have the better rushing offense when you factor in strength of schedule.  Overall these teams are very much even, and Georgia Tech proved under Key that this team could play with anyone.  They also had some head scratching losses along the way, Boston College and Bowling Green, but played right with Ole MIss and Georgia.  I think Georgia Tech will be motivated to win a bowl game, while UCF and Malzahn who is only 3-6 straight up in bowl game.

Northern Ill +3 2.2% play

97% of the money is on Arkansas State on side and money line. Nobody thinks Northern Illinois can win this game, and they are putting their faith in Arkansas State’s head coach Butch Jones?  I just don’t understand it to be honest, and I’m happy o take the +3 with Northern Illinois as the Sun Belt Conference has not looked great this bowl season, which is the conference Arkansas State is from.

Northern Illinois has lost 7 straight bowl games, but they have an experienced QB leading the way behind a top 25 rushing attack.  More importantly is Northern Illinois defense, which ranks 31st in ypp, but 10th in QB rating defense, and 14th in passing success rate defense.  Arkansas State vs. top 50 pass defenses went 0-4 getting outscored 14, 10, 34, and 73, and throw in their loss to Troy who is a top 50 success rate defense, and they’re 0-5.  Northern Illinois ranks 50th in success rate defense.  I think Northern Illinois will be able to control this game as Arkansas State ranks 109th in defense ypc. 

Bowling Green +3.5 2.2% play / Bowling Green +150 0.3% play 

This game to me with a total under 40 seems like it’s going to be a battler. I can’t find many advantages for the Minnesota Gophers who somehow got worse on offense this year.  Minnesota will turn to Cole Kramer, a Sr. QB who barely played at all during his time here, which probably tells you all you need to know about his talent, when the QB play the last two years has been bad.  Minnesota will have a hard time protectin him as Bowling Green is 9th in sack %, while Minnesota just 84th in protecting their QB.  Bowling Green 20th in passing success rate, and they also check in 46th in defensive ypc. 

I know PJ Fleck will be trying to motivate his team as a 5-7 team, and he will be out there running around with his tie like an idiot, but I really feel like the ship might be sinking for him.  Bowling Green beat Minnesota in 2021, and they had a much worse team -0.6 ypp differential compared to Minnesota was +0.6, a net difference 1.2 per play.  Bowling Green this season -0.1 vs. Minnesota -0.5, which is in favor of Bowling Green.  Clearly a big game for Bowling Green for recruiting in Detroit, and wouldn’t it be amazing to knock off their second P5 team of the season having beaten Georgia Tech?  They also played Michigan out of the Big Ten, which is not even something Minnesota can say.  They hung with Michigan through 2 quarters trailing just 14-6 at the half.   Bowling Green also #1 in turnovers forced per possession, which could be a problem for a Minnesota offense that ranks 127th in success rate.

Air Force +115 3% play

James Madison 11-1 had a fantastic season going up against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.  Service Academy's are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 bowl games, and we are getting Air Force in a buy low spot after how they closed the season.  Service Academies always ready to go in bowl games, and I can't say the same for James Madison who has 8 transfers, and their two best players on the OL and DL injured for this game.  Air Force has a top 25 rushing attack, and James Madison who is going to be missing players on the DL was one of the best run defense, but they only faced one top 50 rushing offense, and they lost that game against App State.

Air Force also sports a top defense ranking 20th in ypp defense, they are consistent against the run and pass, and rank 36th in success rate defense.  I think overall James Madison will bring the effort, but in the end Air Force will win with experience and the fact that James Madison had to hire five temporary coaches just to prepare for this game after losing their HC Curt Cignetti is a major red flag. 

Utah State -1 2.2% oplay 

Northern Ill +3 2.2% play

97% of the money is on Arkansas State on side and money line. Nobody thinks Northern Illinois can win this game, and they are putting their faith in Arkansas State’s head coach Butch Jones?  I just don’t understand it to be honest, and I’m happy o take the +3 with Northern Illinois as the Sun Belt Conference has not looked great this bowl season, which is the conference Arkansas State is from.

Northern Illinois has lost 7 straight bowl games, but they have an experienced QB leading the way behind a top 25 rushing attack.  More importantly is Northern Illinois defense, which ranks 31st in ypp, but 10th in QB rating defense, and 14th in passing success rate defense.  Arkansas State vs. top 50 pass defenses went 0-4 getting outscored 14, 10, 34, and 73, and throw in their loss to Troy who is a top 50 success rate defense, and they’re 0-5.  Northern Illinois ranks 50th in success rate defense.  I think Northern Illinois will be able to control this game as Arkansas State ranks 109th in defense ypc.

Georgia Tech +5 2.2% play / Georgia Tech +180 1%

I think this game offers a ton of variance to be honest, which is why I also like the money line here. When you have two teams that are very similar in the fact that they play fast, rely on explosive plays have good quality mobile QBs, with defenses that really struggle ranking outside the top 100 in success rate, while the offenses are both in the top 50 in success rate offense.  Both offenses struggle with turnovers ranking 102nd, and 103rd in % of possessions ending in turnovers, but I like Georgia Tech who has been better at forcing turnovers.  They also seem to have the better rushing offense when you factor in strength of schedule.  Overall these teams are very much even, and Georgia Tech proved under Key that this team could play with anyone.  They also had some head scratching losses along the way, Boston College and Bowling Green, but played right with Ole MIss and Georgia.  I think Georgia Tech will be motivated to win a bowl game, while UCF and Malzahn who is only 3-6 straight up in bowl game.

Georgia Tech vs. bad success rate defenses went 3-1 averging over 36 points per game. Their lone loss was the odd game to BC where they turned the ball over a bunch. UCF vs. bad SR defenses went 1-2 losing to Kansas and Baylor, before beating an inconcsinstent Houston team to close out the season. AGainst bad run defense teams, Georgia Tech went 2-1, while UCF went 1-2, with their lone win being a miselading game against Cincinnati. These two met last year, where Georgia TEch lost on the road, but outgained UCF by 105 yards, and Key was not the head coach at the time. I trust Key getting his players up for this game, and will expect them to be excited. This is a team that played right with Ole MIss and Georgia, and Louisville and wins over North Carolina and Miami. UCF's most impressive win was against Oklahoma State at home in a game Oklahoma State was off an upset over Oklahoma, which was a huge win and a clear let down spot.

Old Dominion -130 3.5% play 

UCLA -4.5 2.2% play 

Boise will play the best defense they have faced all season long against UCLA.  Boise with a third string QB, a first time starter going up against a defense that is not only top 30 against the run, they are top 10, and they also have a top 30 pass defense, 16th in sack %, and top 25 in turning opponents over.  Boise played just 1 team in teh top 50 in run defense, and that team was Air Force a team they beat, but was a bit is always a bit off in their rankings.  They went 0-3 vs. top 30 pass defenses.  Boise got dominated by the PAC 12 opponent in week 1, and UCLA dominated on the road against San Diego State from the Mountain West. 

Clearly the PAC 12 took huge strides this year and was a lot better going 10-1 vs. the Mountain West as I feel the MW was down.  PAC 12 in the previous 2 years went 12-8 for example.  Not only did the PAC 12 win they dominated outsourcing on average by 3 TDs.  Boise has had some transfers, and while they played great down the stretch and won the conference they have no WR’s, and their HC got the job they were fighting for, I don’t sense there will be as much fight in Boise here.  UCLA should dominate.

Georgia Southern -3 3.3% play

I think there is some value here with Georgia Southern after they finished the year 0-4 straight up and ATS they come limping into the bowl game, but Georgia Southern had nothing to play for their last 4 games, and play in a far better conference in the SUn Belt than the MAC.  Ohio has been hit very hard by the transfer portal as well with their top 2 QB, RB, and WR and best LB all missing this game.  They'll be down to their 3rd string QB, and I think they'll face a Georgia Soutehrn team that is fully focused.  Ohios defense has been great ranking 12th in ypp allowed, but they have faced an average 97th ranked ypp offense.  Their SR defense ranks 6th, but they have faced an average 100.5 SR offense here they face #37, which is by far the best offense.  Georgia Southern actually ranks top 50 in passing and rushign SR.  Against the only 3 top 90 SR offenses Ohio went 1-2.

Navy +3 5.5% pod

Under 47.5 2.2% play 

Florida St -102 2.5% play

Over 53.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Boise State -2.5 3.3% play

It is very clear that the coaching change for Boise State made a dramatic difference, and I think it will continue here as Spencer Danielson is interviewing for the HC job, and it’s very evident the players love him.  Boise State lost 2 or 3 games that could have easily gone the other way, and I just feel like they are playing their best football right now.  UNLV has had a great season with a win or a loss they should be feeling good, but Boise State has faced the tougher schedule, and arguably has the better #’s although it’s pretty even.  This game is in Vegas, but Boise State is very much used to traveling here in the past and their fans travel extremely well.

Both teams come in with top 30 YPP offenses, and are primarily a run first team at roughly 58% of their plays being runs.  Boise is by far the better rushing team ranking 7th in rushing success rate, while UNLV ranks 99th.  Defensively against the run Boise 72nd, vs. UNLV who is 58th, but Boise has gone up against an average opponent run defense ranking 48th, while UNLV opponent coming in at 70.8.  I think Boise can control the run game and they have the best back in the game in Ashton Jeanty, while Taylon Green at QB also offers a rushing threat.  In conferenc eplay UNLV is only +.17 yards per carry, while Boise State is +1.88 ypc.  UNLV was outgained on the ground only 3x this season going 1-2, while their win against Air Force they had to come from behind as they trailed Air Force 24-7.

Over 55.5 3.3% play 

Toledo -7 2.2% play 

The first meeting was a home game for Miami Ohio, and they trailed 21-3 at the half, ultimately losing 21-17, but they were on the road and Miami Ohio had their QB in that game.  Gabbert lost of the season 4 games ago, and his replacement Aveon Smith has not looked good and has progressively gotten worse over his 4 games as more and more tape is available.  Smith goes up against his toughest challenge so far facing Toledo who has a top 20 pass defense, top 25 run defense, and top 30 sack rate, while Miami Ohio ranks 101st in ypc, 111th in success rate, and 101st in protecting the QB.  Smith threw 2 INT in his last game.  Toledo went 3-1 against top defenses this year, and amazingly all 4 games were on the road while their lone loss was by 2 points to  Power 5 opponent to open the year, which was their only loss. 

Miami Ohio’s defense is what should keep them in this game, but overall they haven’t faced many top offenses.  Toledo ranks 15th in yards per play, and has been balanced offensively ranking 25th in rushing success rate and 26th in passing success rate.  They are also 14th in protecting the QB.  Toledo in their lone two games vs. top offenses went 0-2.  Both teams played similar schedules of opponents, but Toledo +1.6 yards per play differential compared to MIami Ohio at +0.6 yards per play.  Toledo will have the incentive to put points and not take foot off if they get out to an early lead like the last time these two met. 

Washington +10 2.2% play / Washington +300 0.3% bonus

Oregon was a 3.5 point under dog on the road against Washington earlier in the season, and now they are a 10 point favorite on a neutral, which is more than a 10 point move, and Washington has not lost a game.  This is just bonkers to me and I understand Washington has not looked great and has been close to losing a bunch of times, but they have consistently found different ways to win games when some part of their team was not going well the other part turned it up.  We saw it from the defense in their road game at Oregon State.

Bottom line this is an inflated price based on recent results.  Washington has actually played the tougher schedule any way you look at it, and what’s not showing up is the last 3 games where Oregon is getting a ton of credit Washington played at USC and at Oregon State, while not only did Oregon get those two games at home, but they got them the week after Washington played them, and the week after they had dream crushing losses.  Oregon State was still in the mix to get to the PAC 12 title game, and USC the same as we saw Caleb Williams crying in the stands.  There is also this notion that Penix is injured, but I haven’t seen any hints of that with his arm at all.  Washington has a very good pass defense, which is what Bo Nix likes to do.  Although they won the first game they definitely got out played and that should allow them to make some adjustments for this game.  Should be a good one as the last two games have been decided by 3 points in favor of Washington.

New Mexico St +10.5 3.3% play 

Iowa State +10 2.2% play

South Carolina +7.5 2.2% play 

Florida State -6.5 2.2% play

Jordan Travis was a devastating loss to this FSU team that is still undefeated.  I think the team is mentally strong and rallies around each other.  We saw it in the game last week where they just went on a run the rest of the game after losing Travis.  Overall this is a mismatch when you factor in Florida is 131st in ypp defense, 125th in rushing defense, and the one thing Florida has going for them is their offense and passing game behind Graham Mertz, but Mertz is out with a collarbone.  I think the loss of Mertz is a bigger deal for this single game tha the loss of Travis.

I think Travis’ replacement in 4th year Tate Rodemaker is ready to go for this game in the swamp, a game that FSU can rely on their defense and rushing offense to get the win by a TD or more.  Florida -1 yard per play this season, and that was with an efficient Graham Mertz, 19th in QB rating running the show. Florida State is +1.7 yards per play, and have already proven they can beat SEC teams.  They beat Florida last year, they beat LSU last year and this year, and they’ll have motivation to prove they still belong in the college football playoff without Travis by beating an SEC team on the road by double digits.

Minnesota +3 2.2% play 

San Jose +125 3% ML Dog of the Week

UNLV has no motivation other than a 10th win, which they’ll get two more games after this game to accomplish as they’ll host Boise State for the Mountain West Title regardless.

With that aside I like this matchup for San Jose State as UNLV is a pass first team, andt hat’s the strength of this defense which ranks 49th in QB defense and that has come against a great schedule of opposing QB’s ranking 42nd in QB rating.  San Jose STate does not turn the ball over ranking 13th in % of possessions ending in TO’s, which is important, because UNLV is +10 TO margin in their 9 win, and San Jose State just does not turn the ball over.  San Jose State is also great in 3rd down offense ranking 23rd as they have a very balanced offense ranking 32nd in success rate, and top 60 in both passing and rushing.  UNLV on the other hand is very much one dimensional ranking 104th in rushing success rate, and 19th in passing success rate. UNLV has not faced many top passing defense this year so it’s a major step up for this group.  Meanwhile they also haven’t faced many quality passing offenses this year

A big difference in strength of schedule.  UNLV got Wyoming at home and got Air Force at the right time the last two games, while San Jose State had USC, oregon State, road game at Toledo the best team in the MAC, Air Force at the wrong time, a road game at Boise.  San Jose State’s average opponent ypp differential was a positive 0.13 compared with UNLV -0.45, San Jose State actually managed +0.7 compared to UNLV +0.5.  When you factor in the schedule and the luck of playing certain teams at certain times, and the overall match up advantage I like San Jose State to win this game outright.

Kentucky +8 2.2% play 

Kentucky has faced a far tougher schedule the fact will be are they motivated here at all against a rival they have beaten 4 straight times, while Louisville wants this game to keep things rolling into the ACC Championship.  Jeff Brohm knows how important this game is, but he knows it won’t be easy.  While the ACC has actually gone 4-2 this year against the SEC I still believe this will be a close game.  Kentucky has only lost by double digits to 3 top 10 teams, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri.  Is Louisville in that category?  I say NO.  

Louisville against good run defenses, which Kentucky certainly has ranking 14th in ypc, and 28th in rushing success rate defense.  Louisville has struggled to win with margin against teams that are good at stopping the run.  Against teams in the top 50 in run defense they have gone 3-1, but their wins have been by 7, 3, and 13 vs. Notre Dame due to +4 TO day.  Jack Plummer is ok passing the ball, but he’s not a difference maker much like Devin Leary on the other side of the ball who has very similar #’s.  Louisville also very reliant on explosive plays will go up against Kentucky who is 16th in explosive plays allowed.  Against top 50 explosive play allowed defenses Louisville has average 4 points less, against top 25 in 3 games they have averaged 6 points less than their season average.

Ohio State +3.5 3.3% play 

Ohio State 9 point favorite and 6.5 point favorite have moved all the way to a 3.5 point under dog which is a 10 point move in 2 years. What has Ohio State done to deserve that type of move?  They have gone undefeated this year.  Of course they are doing it a different way than in the past, and that is with their defense.  I like the fact that the running game is healthy going into this game, and Ohio State has been tested on the road in the game against Notre Dame, which honestly could have gone either way, but they are coming into this game better than they were going into the Notre Dame game because of that experience.

For Michigan, what is different that is giving them a 10 point line move here? They are also undefeated, and have dominated Ohio State the last two years, but they are without Jim Harbough’s leadership on the sideline.  The team has rallied in recent weeks, but we have seem struggles against Maryland, and JJ McCarthy’s reluctance to throw.  The Michigan team has faced a far less schedule when you look at Michigan their average opponent has a YPP differential of -0.23, while Ohio State has better ypp vs. a tougher opponent +0.34.  The average opponent success rate for Michigan is 74.13, while Ohio State is 60.14th in the county.  This year’s Michigan team is identical to last year’s Michigan team.  The numbers of the players with the exception of their HC on the sideline.  I think Ohio State has planned for it, and while Ohio State’s #’s are similar too the biggest difference is their defense.  Last year ranked 43rd in QB rating defense, this year #1.  Their overall success defense ranks 7th against a tough opposing schedule of SR defenses ranked 58th on average last year they were 4th, but vs. 80th ranked.  Their 3rd down defense is #2, and their rushing success rate defense ranks 8th.  I think Ohio State’s defense is much more equipped to deal with Michigan’s offense than they were in year’s past and statistically there has not been as much drop off with Ohio State’s offense 

UTSA +3.5 3.3% play

"Nobody will think we can win, and we'll be the underdog on the road," UTSA coach Jeff Traylor said. "Looking forward to that."

UTSA has the better overall numbers, and an extra day of rest/preparation, but will be on the road.  I think these two teams are pretty even, and UTSA is actually the better team since Frank Harris returned healthy at QB.  To me he will be the best player on the field Friday, a mobile QB, an offense that plays with pace will give the stout Tulane defense issues as they are 21st in tempo in the country.  Tulane has a great QB in Pratt as well, but this team even at 10-1 has under achieved all year.  They rank 106th in success rate pass defense, 103rd in rushing success rate, which are two huge holes to fill against a great team like UTSA that was used to fighting for conference championships.  The teams are even, the coaches are even, and I think it sets up for a close game decided by a field goal.

Nebraska -130 3.5% play 

Iowa State +7.5 3.3% play 

Texas seems to be feeling the pressure of getting into the college football playoff in my opinion.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games by 7 points or less, and are expected to win by more than a TD on the road at night against an Iowa State team that has beaten the Longhorns in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Iowa State has a top 50 pass and run defense, which has given Texas issues this season where they are 0-2 ATS in Big 12 play losing outright to Oklahoma, and nearly to Kansas State.  They turned the ball over 6x in those two contests, and Iowa State ranks top 50 in both offensive and defensive TO % per possession.

I don’t trust Texas and Quin Ewers, and now he will be without his top RB Weapon Jonathan Brooks who was lost for the season a week ago.  I expect this to be a very tense close game, and I give the edge to Matt CAmpbell who is 12-4 ATS as a home dog at Iowa State.

Washington / Oregon St Over 62 2.2% play 

Washington +105 2.5% play

78% of the money on Oregon State, and I haven’t been able to find anyone on the undefeated Washington team.  Washington certainly has holes particularly in their run defense, which is why they are getting disrespected here.  When we look at Oregon State they arguably have even more holes in their pass defense, which is a horrible match up against Washington.  Washington’s defense really showed me something in the second half against Utah shutting them out, and it was the defense that got them the win.  The week before against USC, it was the rushing attack for Washington that got them the win with Dillon Johnson rushing for 256 yards.  The last two weeks against top tier PAC 12 opponents they found different ways to win, which to me is showing they are more of a complete team than they are getting credit for.  This was 24-21 final last year at Washington, but Oregon State’s pass defense is worse than it was a season ago against worse competition.  Last year they ranked 13th in QB Rating against an average opponent ranking 51st.  Oregon State has not faced any prolific passing attacks all year, Washington State is the closest team, passing it 65%, but they rank outside the top 50, and hung 38 points, 422 yards 4 TD and 0 INT.  Arizona another good passing attack with a backup QB in Fiftita threw for 275 yards on 32 attempts, 3 TD and 1 int.

Kansas / Kansas State Under 58 1.65%

Iowa -150 3.5% play

Tenn +10 -120 2.4% 

Maryland / Michigan Under 50 2.2% play

Weather forecasts call for windy conditions, which is not good news for Marylands offense.  Michigan has Ohio STate on deck, and we saw them really take the air out of the ball in the second half against Penn State a week ago.  They are amontg the slowest in pace in the nation, and will run the ball a ton here.  Maryland is top 25 in explosive plays allowed, and will know what's coming so I expect they'll be able to slow things down a bit, and 50 points is a ton given the situation.

Memphis +8.5 2.2% play

Memphis is still live in the AAC Conference Title race, and this is a massive game at home against two top 30 offenses.  Memphis actually has the better offense and QB, and they're at home getting over a TD, where they take care of the ball.  SMU vs. a top 50 offense this season is 1-2, while they beat a similar North Texas team 45-21, that game was at home, and Memphis actually went on the road and beat North Texas.  Memphis lost to Tulane by 10 (-2 TO), and Missouri by 7 (-1 TO) both are to teams, and Memphis played both games tight.  SMU's defense ranks among the bets, but I don't think they are nearly as good as their ranking.  Even when Memphis loses at home it is a close game.  The last time they lost by more than a TD at home before their game against Tulane was 2016.