Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
At first glance, this number seems pretty high for a divisional game where the teams are separated by just a half game for first place. But in reality, I don't think it is enough as these teams are not as equal as the records may show. Cleveland is one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL as it is off to a 5-3 start but that record is extremely skewed. The Browns have been outgained in six of their eight games and that always catches up to teams, especially when three of those negative TYD's have taken place the last three games. And even worse is that those were against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay which are a combined 2-23 on the season. Winning the last two games shows some clutch performances but that should not be the case against bottom of the barrel teams. The Bengals have not exactly been tearing it up either as they are 2-2-1 over their last five games but the two losses came against the Patriots and Colts, both on the road, and there is no shame in those defeats. This is the third straight home game for the Bengals which is a big advantage when playing the third game on a short week and it is even bigger with three straight road games upcoming including the first one taking place in New Orleans. The Browns have played the easiest schedule in the league and they are by far the lowest ranked winning team in my most recent power rankings. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bengals have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games. 10* (110) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants UNDER 50.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
A barrage of points in the fourth quarter last night saw yet another primetime game go over the total and sportsbooks continue to feel the burn. Of the 27 Thursday, Sunday and Monday primetime games this season, 21 have gone over the total and public has absolutely cleaned up. The linesmakers are making adjustments to curb this but it has not been enough and the public will continue to ride this anomaly. The Colts have the best offense in the NFL in terms of both scoring and yardage so they are expected to score in bunches and while the Giants defense has been inconsistent, playing at home will help as they are allowing 358 ypg and 20.7 ppg in three home games compared to 404.3 ypg and 26.8 ppg in four road games. The Colts have gone over in all four road games this season which again adds the contrarian value aspect. The Giants offense has struggled the last two games which coincides with running back Rashad Jennings being out of the lineup and that will be the case again this week. Without Jennings, the running game has faltered and that in turn hurts the passing game which of course is now without Victor Cruz. The Colts defense was playing at a high level until last week but I expect a big bounce back this week. This is the third time this season the Giants have had an over/under in the 50's and the first two games stayed under the total. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (473) Indianapolis Colts/(474) New York Giants |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48 | Top | 23-43 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 52 m | Show |
We won the Under in week Two when these teams met on Thursday night. Here is one of the big reasons for that play taken from that analysis. " This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight." That game stayed well under the number and in the second meeting, we are getting an even larger number to work with. 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed under the 48 points that we are presented with this week and we are banking on it again. Helping us is the fact that Pittsburgh rang up 51 points against the Colts last week and that all four of the Steelers home game have gone over the total. Additionally, three of the four Baltimore road games have gone over the total including last week's game at Cincinnati so the linesmakers have no choice but to lay a big number here. Oh, and the fact that seven of eight Sunday night games have gone over the total this season. You know where we are going. 10* Under (471) Baltimore Ravens/(472) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
After winning with the Jets two weeks ago, we lost with them last Sunday against Buffalo as Geno Smith threw three picks on his first four possessions which led to him getting benched and New York was unable to recover. Michael Vick takes over as the starter and while he is not a big upgrade, he is an upgrade nonetheless and working in practice with the first team all week should have him much better prepared this week. The Jets have dropped seven straight games to fall to 1-7 but the strange thing is that they have been outgained by a paltry 11 yards on the entire season. We all know that means and it is pretty obvious where the problems lie when your turnover margin is at -13, an NFL worst. Smith was responsible for 12 of 16 giveaways so we are banking on that getting better. The Chiefs followed up an upset win over San Diego by easily defeating the Rams last week which were coming off an upset home victory over Seattle in their previous game. Hosting the Jets is not going to get the juiced flowing especially with a game at 5-3 Buffalo next week following by Seattle and then two divisional games. Kansas City is a good team but are they good enough to be laying double-digits? The last time that happened was in 2005 so I'm saying no. Contrarian thinking says to play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (461) New York Jets |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +1.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
We play on and lost with San Diego last Thursday night in Denver. Had the Chargers won that game, we would not be playing them here but coming off two straight losses and in danger of falling further back in the playoff chasing pack, we will ride them here playing on extra rest. San Diego has been outplayed in both of the recent losses, losing the yardage battle by 114 and 119 total yards so it has gone from dominating during a five-game winning streak to being outplayed over the last two weeks. Bring on the Dolphins as they have won two in a row, both on the road, and they have dropped two straight at home. Granted, those losses came against Kansas City and Green Bay but we can put the Chargers in that category of solid teams. Miami has been outgained in four of their last six games and while the yardage differentials have been minimal, it has still been on the wrong end which is not a good sign. It has come down to turnovers and the same can be said for the Chargers with both being on the opposite ends. That brings in a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (451) San Diego Chargers |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
I'm typically not one to lay points on the road but this is an exception as the Eagles have played great the last two weeks only to split their games. They destroyed the Giants three weeks ago which led into their bye week only to lose against the Cardinals last week after giving up a 75-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 remaining and then getting stopped on the Arizona 16-yard line following three straight incomplete passes. Philadelphia hits the road once again and road teams coming off a road loss have fared very well over the years, going 70-26 ATS in the month of November over the last 10 years. Turnovers have killed the Eagles this season as they are -7 in margin and have won the turnover battle only once in seven games. Houston took care of Tennessee on the road last week which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Texans have outgained each of their last two opponents after getting outgained in each of their first six games so they are either trending in the right direction or it is a false perception. I am backing the latter as they have been outgained in 11 of 14 games going back to last season they are also part of a turnover situation, but not in their favor. We play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The better team wins which means a likely cover as well. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 28-10 | Win | 103 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Despite being winless on the road, the Saints have gone from a pickem on Thursday to a small favorite over Carolina. I think that is the right move that came early in the week shortly after release and once we get closer to gametime, we will likely see the line continue to rise so it is best to bet this one now. New Orleans is coming off an excellent performance on Sunday night against the Packers even though it won the yardage battle by just four yards. The Saints have dropped seven straight regular season games on the road but they were able to cover their last one in Detroit and they are getting a good matchup here. Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss against Seattle on Sunday and after a 2-0 start, the Panthers are 1-4-1 over their last six games. They outgained Tampa Bay by 70 total yards in their season opener but since then, they have been outgained in their last seven games. The fact that three of those resulted in non-losses is fortunate as getting outgain in this league tends to lead to losses the vast majority of the time. New Orleans has won 13 of its last 15 games when scoring 40 or more points as it tends to carry momentum forward which makes this short week actually a good thing in keeping that momentum rolling. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are being outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and while that won't be impressing many people, it put a halt to the skid and with that pressure now gone, the Redskins can play loose against one of their most hated rivals. The offense has been doing nothing of late but installing Colt McCoy into the starting lineup at quarterback could be the spark that the Redskins need. It has been a bad run for Washington which seeks its first division victory since Week 17 of 2012, and its first two-game winning streak since winning back-to-back games in the final two games of the 2012 season. Those are the types of streaks the public fades and we play on. Dallas is having a surprisingly great season as it has won six straight games while covering five of those. Last week the Cowboys defeated the Giants as 4.5 point favorites and now they are favored by 5.5 points more and there is not a chance Washington is 5.5 points worse than New York. Division games have a certain mystique about them for obvious reasons and this one is no different which makes this point spread completely out of whack. It also brings in an odd dynamic as the Cowboys go from double-digit underdogs two weeks ago to double-digit favorites and while that differential can be seen in college football now and again, it is a rarity in this league. The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS against teams with a losing record while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (277) Washington Redskins |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
With the Saints loss last Sunday in Detroit, they have fallen to 2-4 on the season but the good news is that they are part of the worst division in football and are just one game behind Carolina in the NFC South. This is the start of four home games over their next five and that is huge for a team that is completely different in the friendly confines of their dome than they are on the road. The host is a perfect 6-0 in New Orleans games this season and I expect that to continue by the end of the night. Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over Carolina to run its winning streak to four games and it remains tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Packers are playing great right now and of course the public is well aware of this which is keeping this line lower than it should be. This could be the worst time for the Packers to have to travel to New Orleans and the primetime slot only makes it a bigger home field edge. Under Drew Brees, the Saints are 14-3 ATS in 17 home games coming off a road loss while under head coach Sean Payton, they are 14-4 ATS in 18 games following any loss of six points or less. The Packers meanwhile have failed to cover in their last five games against teams with a losing record while going 1-11 ATS in their last 12 non-divisional games with a line between +3 and -3. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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10-26-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
The Steelers came through for us last Monday against Houston and there were definitely some good fortunes involved there. While it wasn't their best game overall, the win itself was huge and they can carry that into this week. This is the second of three straight home games for Pittsburgh and it needs to take advantage as the back end of the schedule is brutal. The Steelers are only a game out of first place in the AFC North and with first place Baltimore on deck, this game becomes very important. The hottest team in the AFC is Indianapolis as it has won five straight games while winning at the betting window in all of those games as well. If not for a blown penalty against the Eagles, Indianapolis could feasibly be undefeated against the number but nonetheless, the linesmakers have adjusted this number based on their current run. The Colts have dominated during this stretch, outgaining foes by an average of 212.4 ypg and while some won't step in front of that train, we will go against it here. Pittsburgh has a solid situation on its side also as we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. This is an excellent test for the Steelers and we see their first real complete game since winning at Carolina last month. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
The Bengals are coming off their worst offensive game in a long time. They gained a mere 135 total yards which was the first time they have been held to fewer than 150 yards of total offense since 2009 in the final game of the regular season. This is now two straight games where Cincinnati has looked completely different than what it looked like at the start of the season and of course, this recent play is what bettors remember the most. On the flip side, Baltimore won its second straight game to move to 5-2 overall with four of those wins coming by 20 or more points. Because of those, the Ravens have a +89 scoring differential which is tops in the NFL. That along with the Bengals recent troubles has given us an exceptional number as the short-term memory of bettors is favoring the contrarian side. The Bengals fall into two outstanding situations. First, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Baltimore is looking for some payback no doubt however it could not be in a worse spot to try and accomplish that. The Bengals get back to their early season form. 10* (268) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 43-23 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
We won with the Jets last Thursday as they played one of their best games of the season despite losing outright against the Patriots. While there is the letdown factor of playing a good game and not winning, the extended time off from last Thursday will help in dealing with that. And even with the effort last week, New York is desperate for a victory. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a last second victory and that definitely spells letdown following the one point victory over the Vikings. It came with a price though as the Bill lost their top two running backs and now will have to move on with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as their lead backs. While the Bills have won twice on the road and could have won a third time at Houston, they are in a tough spot and have not fared well of late, going 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of three points or less while going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing a game at home. Additionally, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage of less than .250. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. Look for the Jets to finally snap their long losing streak with a comfortable win on Sunday. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
The Broncos are coming off one of their best games of the season to make it three straight wins heading into this big AFC West showdown with San Diego. Denver is showing it is still the team to beat and while it sits stop my power rakings, I don't like the spot or the matchup it is involved in. San Diego meanwhile is coming off its second loss of the season as it fell at home by a field goal to the Chiefs. That coupled with the Broncos win gives us the dichotomous results angle which tells us to go opposite of the most recent occurrences. We can take it a step further by going against the streaks of the Broncos three straight cover wins and the Chargers two straight cover losses. The Chargers match up very well with Denver and a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. Last season, the Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense and they kept the other two games close as well. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In three games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. We won against San Diego last week but are backing them here expecting a big bounce back and in addition, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog. 10* (103) San Diego Chargers |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 41 m | Show |
The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss against division rival Cleveland and while they have regressed the last couple years, I expect a big bounceback on Monday night. Pittsburgh is now 3-3 but is just a game and a half behind the Bengals in the AFC North so there is plenty of room to make a move. This is the first of three straight home games for the Steelers and the other two going to be tough ones against the Colts and Ravens so they know they have to take care of business here. Houston put up a solid effort against Indianapolis last Thursday but fell short and it also fell to 3-3 on the season. That record can be considered a mirage however as the Texans have been outgained in all six of their games this season, the last two coming by 126 yards and 124 yards. The lone road win this season came at winless Oakland and going back to last season, they are 2-12 over their last 14 road games. The Steelers have thrived in these spots as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as favorites of three points or more coming off a double-digit loss when facing an opponent also off a loss. They have won 15 straight Monday night home games including seven straight wins at Heinz Field since it opened, winning those games by an average of 12.3 ppg. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after having lost two of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 30 or more points. 10* (478) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Chargers last week as they went to Oakland laying a big number and barely came back home with the victory. Conventional thinking would be to back San Diego this week coming off a poor effort but we are anything but conventional and we will be fading the Chargers again in their second of three straight divisional games. The third one comes next week in Denver on Thursday so there could definitely be a case of peeking ahead to that one. Additionally, San Diego was in a very hard fought, physical game last week in Oakland while the Chiefs are coming off their bye week which happened to follow a loss at San Francisco prior to that. That put a halt to their two-game winning streak and sitting at 2-3, this is a very pivotal game in order to keep pace within the division. Kansas City failed to win following its bye week a season ago but the situation was different as it went in 9-0 and was playing at Denver. That was just the second loss in 18 games for head coach Andy Reid coming off a two-week break. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 95-52 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-19-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
The Jaguars came oh so close to their first win of the season last week as they fought Tennessee to the end only to lose by two points. The good news for Jacksonville backers is that it got its first cover of the season which is a move in the right direction in trying to attain its first outright victory. While the Jaguars were unable to cover their first two home games, they are getting the same number this week as they were in those first two games but are the Browns really that good to be laying this type of number? I don't think so. Cleveland is coming off a big win over the Steelers but it won the yardage battle by only nine total yards so the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Browns are playing good but they have not been favored by this much on the road since they came back to Cleveland back in 1999, a span of 122 games. So the fact the Browns are being asked to lay this number coming off a big divisional win is a little too much. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 24 or more ppg and it falls into a negative situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (458) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
It is a well known fact that New Orleans struggles on the road as it has lost all three games on the road this season but the situation is different this week. The Saints were favored in three of those road games and now they are getting points in Detroit which is certainly more than fair as linesmakers are making the proper adjustment. New Orleans is in a very good spot though as it matches up well against the Lions and the indoor atmosphere certainly will not hurt. Detroit won at Minnesota last week to improve to 4-2 on the season ad remain in a first place tie with Green Bay in the NFC North. While the defense has been playing at a very high level, the offense is not doing much and it is no coincidence. The big edge here for New Orleans is in fact its defense as it will be facing a horrendous offensive line that Detroit possesses. The Saints have struggled on defense but they could be in store for a big turnaround game. Making matters worse for the Lions is the fact that they are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 games against team allowing 27 or more ppg. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (467) New Orleans Saints |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
The Jets have to cover at some point and this looks like the best spot for it to happen. We got puked on last week when Geno Smith threw a pick six in the waning seconds to blow the cover for us against Denver and while it has been a rough season for New York with five straight losses, this is a game they will be sky high for. The Patriots were thought to be done a few short weeks ago after getting blown out by Kansas City but now they are once again being praised as being back. I don't think they were ever gone but I also do not think they are as good as some do think and they should not be laying this many points to a division rival, no matter the record differentials. While it may not seem like it, the Jets defense is still pretty good as they are ranked sixth overall but has been hurt by getting pinned deep in their own end of the field several times. The Jets fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 2-9 ATS since 2012 as a favorite of 8 or more points during the regular season. 10* (303) New York Jets |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show |
Many predicted San Diego to be a sleeper team in the NFL this season and so far it is living up to expectations. If for not blowing an 11-point lead in Arizona opening weekend, the Chargers would be 5-0 right now and the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL. The one thing they are undefeated at is their record against the number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS and they are the only team that has yet to fail on a cover this year. San Diego cruised to a win over the Jets last Sunday and it could not have looked better as it outgained New York 439-151 and that makes this the perfect time to go against the Chargers especially with the Chiefs on deck. Oakland had a week off which came at a perfect time and it also will be breaking in a new coach after Dennis Allen was hired and replace by interim coach Tony Soprano. The Raiders got thumped in London in their last game but that works in their favor here as in the eight previous games played across the pond, there have been five teams that lost by more than a touchdown prior to this year and all five of those teams covered their next game with four winning outright and the other resulting in the Rams/49ers tie back in 2012. this is just the second home game of the season for Oakland and despite losing its first against Houston, it outgained the Texans by 37 total yards. Great spot here for the Raiders. 10* (270) Oakland Raiders |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
As fast as we jumped on the Patriots last week following their horrible performance at Kansas City two weeks ago, we will jump off them just as fast this week following their great performance this past Sunday night against the Bengals. Everyone had them written off but now it seems everyone has jumped back on them and this line is a reaction to that. While I don't think they were as bad as they looked in Kansas City, I don't think they are as good as they looked last week and the Bengals just did not show up. Now New England goes into the rare situation of going from a home underdog to a road favorite within the span of a week and that plays into a great situation explained at the end. The Bills are getting no credit here but coming off a come-from-behind win at Detroit has this team brimming with confidence as it tries to knock off its division rival for the first time since 2011, a span of five straight losses. The Bills could feasibly be 4-1 if not for giving a game away at Houston and they are coming in here with a chip on their should due to the lack of respect. Here we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against teams coming off a win. This situation is 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1980. The Patriots simply cannot be trusted on the road anymore as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 highway games. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +11 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
We made a horrible call on the Jets last week in San Diego as they were humiliated 31-0. the mustered a mere 151 yards of total offense and were outgained by 288 yards in the process. New York is now 1-4 on the season and it has yet to cover a game so we knew this line would be big coming in but it has now gotten out of control. While Denver is considered the best team in the AFC, San Diego is no longer far behind which makes this line completely inaccurate. If this game were being played in Denver, the Broncos would be roughly a 16-point favorite and last week the Chargers were favored by seven points which states that Denver is nine points better than San Diego? I don't think so. This line is purely an overreaction to last week and the short-term memory that gamblers have. The Broncos are coming off a near perfect performance against Arizona last week and that is also being taken into consideration with this number. That was a big bounce back game for Denver which was coming off a loss in Seattle preceding its bye so you knew they were going to come out strong. With home games against San Francisco and San Diego on deck, being fully focused here is very unlikely. Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win while New York 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after scoring less than 15 points. 10* (252) New York Jets |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
We do not typically lay points on the road in the NFL but we are making the exception here as we are catching a line that is very favorable. The Colts enter Thursday night riding a three-game winning streak after starting the season 0-2 and they can put some ground between them and the rest of the division with a victory tonight. The two losses came against Philadelphia and Denver, both of which have just one loss and they actually ended up outgaining the Broncos. That is part of a big reasoning for playing Indianapolis here. It has outgained four of its five opponents with the last three coming by 185, 237 and 135 yards and overall, the average margin is +97.4 ypg. In contrast, the Texans have not outgained a single opponent this season and they have been outgained by an average of 47.6 ypg which isn't a huge amount but the fact they have not been on the plus side in the stats is a huge concern. The schedules have not been the reasoning either as Houston has played the 29th ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 30th ranked slate. The difference has been turnovers for the Texans as they have 12 takeaways and their turnover percentage is ranked third in the NFL. After committing five turnovers in the first four games, the Colts had four last week so that can be chalked up as an anomaly. We will take our chances with the much better quarterback and the undoubtedly better 3-2 team here. 10* (101) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
After last night's game that cruised over the total, primetime games in the NFL are on a 10-0 run going back to the Bears/49ers Sunday night game on September 14th. In those games, there has been an average of 55.8 ppg scored and the public is cleaning up. Linesmakers have been adjusting these totals to try and combat all of the over action coming in but it has yet to make a difference. We are seeing it here as well as this number is higher than it should be based on those past results and what the public is thinking here. Washington has gone over in three straight games with the most recent one coming 10 days ago in a primetime game for everyone to see. According to the talking heads on television, Seattle no longer has a defense that is dominant as it once was. The Seahawks are three games into the season and have faced three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and taking nothing away from Kirk Cousins but he is not in that category. Seattle is still ranked sixth in total defense in the league and should be able to slow Washington down enough. The Redskins have allowed 37 and 45 points the last two games so that in itself is a trigger for over backers but last week was certainly a fluke no thanks to six turnovers while the week before, the Redskins were killed by penalties and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ninth in the NFL in total defense through four games and that will surprise a lot of people. The Under is 7-2 in the Seahawks last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (477) Seattle Seahawks/(478) Washington Redskins |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +7.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
While I think the Seattle defense is not getting the credit it deserves based on what the media is blurting out, the same can be said for the Redskins defense. While they have allowed 82 points the last two weeks, the defense is not to blame on all of that. Six turnovers against the Giants last week led to 31 points and the four touchdowns were all on short fields including two from 24 and 22 yards. The Giants had the ball for close to 15 minutes more than the Redskins which led to more yards and the wearing out the Washington defense. Against the Eagles, they allowed just 379 yards but penalties and special teams hurt them there. They don't have to play a perfect game to succeed here but they just have to be better in other areas to help the defense. Kirk Cousins had a dreadful game last week, posting a 53.0 passer rating which came after putting up rating of 109.4 and 103.4 his first two games. Getting through the Seahawks defense will not be easy as it has en elite secondary so we should see more short passes and running from Washington which can shorten the game, keep Seattle off the field on offense and that benefits the underdog. The Redskins fall into a spectacular situation where we play on home underdogs of three points or more that are coming off a loss of 24 or more points. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1980. Additionally, Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. While the public is all over the over yet again, it is also all over Seattle yet we have seen this line drop so the reverse line movement is on our side. 10* (478) Washington Redskins |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +2 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show |
Anyone who watches ESPN or follows some of the other media outlets on Twitter has been told over and over again that the Patriots are done and Tom Brady is washed up. Clearly, things are not right in New England as it is now 2-2 following its shellacking at the hands of the Chiefs last Monday night. Brady is having his worst season statistically as he is still trying to work with some new personnel but there is no chance we will see him down for very long. New England opened as the favorite here and after everyone saw what happened Monday, it is now a home underdog for the first time since 2005. Cincinnati comes in at 3-0 and fresh off its bye week. The Bengals opened the season on the road at Baltimore but this is the first time they have had to travel since then. Being favored here is clearly an overadjustment and we can prove that based on their last game. Being a point favorite here would make them a seven-point favorite at home which is a half-point higher than what they were favored b y over the Titans in their last game. The Titans a half-point better than New England? I think not. Additionally, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (476) New England Patriots |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
This is the classic contrarian play in going against spread records as well as teams going in the opposite direction. The Jets opened the season with a win over the Raiders, which isn't saying much, but they have now lost three straight games to fall to 1-3 and 0-3-1 ATS. Overall, New York is outgaining opponents by an average of 74.7 ypg but the difference between wins and losses has been turnovers where it is -6 in turnover margin. After dropping its opening game in Arizona, San Diego has won three straight games and overall the Chargers are 4-0 against the number which has inflated this line a significant amount. They have been the opposite of New York when it comes to turnovers as the Chargers are +5 in turnover margin and they have not turned it over in three straight games. While the Jets have a significant edge in yardage margin, San Diego is just +26.3 ypg. Adding all of this up proves how much turnovers can affect a team, whether good or bad, and how much it can influence records and with that, public perception. The Jets have a positive situation on their side based on turnovers as we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 134-81 ATS (62.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the point differential being +2 ppg favoring the play on team. 10* (473) New York Jets |
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10-05-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Tennessee Titans -1 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with Tennessee last week as the Titans got crushed in Indianapolis but we will come back with them here this week After opening the season with a win at Kansas City, Tennessee has dropped three straight games all by 16 points or more. That makes this the perfect play on situation as we get line value with a team in desperate need of a victory. The schedule hasn't helped much as three of the first four games have all come on the road. The Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week after a poor effort from Charlie Whitehurst against the Colts and that could make a big difference here. The Brown are 1-2 but have been involved in every game with the two losses coming on last second field goals. While the games have been close, Cleveland has yet to outgain any of its three opponents which does tell a different story. This is the first road game in a month for the Browns as they have played two in a row at home followed by their bye week. Tennessee is ranked 30th in scoring offense but this could be the breakout game against a poor Browns defense. The low offensive output favors the Titans in a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Tennessee Titans |
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10-05-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 34 m | Show |
New Orleans is 1-3 and it is being written off by some of the media which is far from accurate. The Saints do have an uphill battle for sure but those three losses all came on the road so now the time comes to get back home and take advantage of the huge edge they have here. There is no doubt this is a must win game and it is even important as New Orleans has their bye next week and going into that 1-4 with a game at Detroit the following week spells disaster. Teams that are a touchdown or more at home the week before their bye are 35-9 ATS. Tampa Bay got into the win column last week with an upset at Pittsburgh in the final seconds. That was a huge win for the Buccaneers following their debacle at Atlanta 10 days before but I cannot see them hanging around here in what is their third straight road game. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 103.5 ypg as it brings in the 29th ranked scoring offense and 31st ranked scoring defense as well. The Saints thrive in these spots, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 102-56 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (460) New Orleans Saints |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
We have seen the over come through in eight straight NFL primetime games going back to Week Two with the Steelers/Ravens last game to stay below the total. This has been a killer on the books which have had to endure a majority of over action from the public and with another notoriously high-scoring series continuing Thursday, the over bets will continue to pour in. This total has dropped from its opening but that is in part due to early pro money coming in as the public has not gotten a hold of this one yet so it is recommended to wait on this one until game day as this total should again creep back up. Minnesota and Green Bay are both coming off high scoring games last week so that will also get the public involved in more over action. What we saw from Minnesota against Atlanta was an anomaly as it put up 558 total yards of offense but overall, it is still ranked just 21st in the league in that category. Give Teddy Bridgewater credit but facing a bad Falcons defense definitely helped. Green Bay is coming off its worst defensive game of the season so we can expect a rebound. The Packers have struggled offensively and the Vikings defense has started solid and is ranked 9th in the NFL in points allowed. Both teams fall into a similar strong situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 120-63 (65.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Look for a lower than expect scoring game come Thursday. 10* Under (301) Minnesota Vikings/(302) Green Bay Packers |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Every Monday night game has gone over the last three weeks which has certainly been good for the public and bad for the books. I think this total has been adjusted slightly because of that and we have still seen it rise since the opening. The Patriots have gone under the total in each of their last two games as the defense has been playing spectacular, allowing just 16 points total. Granted, those were against Minnesota and Oakland but the offense they face tonight is not a ton better despite putting up 34 points last week. That total Kansas City scored was a touchdown more than its first two games combined. Overall, Kansas City is 23rd in scoring offense and 24th in total offense while the New England defense is 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. On the other side, the offense has been an issue for the Patriots and I see that continuing tonight. While the Chiefs are the team here that has a reputation for utilizing their quarterback in vanilla-like fashion, the reality is that New England has become nearly as conservative as Kansas City on offense. New England's offensive line leads the league in terms of hits and pressures allowed. The Kansas City defense has been average, but the environment is going to play a big role with Arrowhead Stadium being one of the loudest environments in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offensive line ranks 30th with 41 pressures allowed so both offensive lines are struggling. Here, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 89-48 (65 percent) to the under since 1983. The under is 13-5-1 in the Chiefs last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Patriots last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (273) New England Patriots/(274) Kansas City Chiefs |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 103 h 9 m | Show |
New Orleans picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Minnesota after dropping its first two games at Atlanta and at Cleveland. I typically like to go against the Saints on the road and even more so when they are road favorites as they have failed to cover six straight games in that role. The situation is different here though as New Orleans can ill afford to fall to 1-3 on the season and they are facing a team they should have no issues with. The Cowboys have won their last two games but they have been outgained by a combined 54 yards in those games so they have been far from dominating. They had to rally from a 21-0 deficit to beat the lowly Rams last week but going back to 2011, Dallas has lost five of its last six games following consecutive wins. The Cowboys will be out for revenge and while that is an angle we like to ride in certain situations, the 49-17 drubbing only shows the differences between the two teams. The Drew Brees-led offense put up 625 yards, the most the Cowboys allowed in a game just two weeks after they allowed 623 to the Detroit Lions. The defense is ranked 21st this season but this is by far its biggest test to date. The Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record while the 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. They also fall into a solid situation where we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 133-80 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) New Orleans Saints |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
Green Bay was a big letdown for some last week as the offense could not do anything against a banged up Detroit secondary. The Packers are now 1-2 and have yet to cover a number this season so we are in good position in backing them here. Let's not forget Green Bay started both 2012 and 2013 1-2 and managed to even the record up in its fourth game and I am certainly expecting the same result here as they face an even worse defense. Of course the media is saying that the Packers are done based on the first three weeks of the season but this is the game they break out. We won with Chicago on Monday night and it was pretty fortunate to be honest as the Bears were outgained by 157 yards, the second straight game they were outyarded badly but managed to win. They benefitted from a turnover advantage but when you allow Geno Smith to throw for 316 yards, you know something isn't right. Overshadowed in the loss to the Lions was that the defense did a great job in holding Detroit to 353 total yards. The Packers defense is looking to hold the opposing quarterback to a passer rating below 65.0 for the third game in a row (NYJ-Geno Smith, 64.1 / DET-Matthew Stafford, 61.6). The Packers have won four straight games at Soldier Field and five of the last six at the stadium. Green Bay has held Chicago to 20 points or less in six of the last seven games at Soldier Field. Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games while going 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
The Giants got off the schneid with their first victory last week against Houston and it will look to get to .500 for the first time this season. This is a tough team to trust offensively as they are still learning a new system and the 30 points scored last week were aided by turnovers. Now they have to hit the road for a divisional game on a short week against a defense that will be playing with a chip on its should after allowing 37 points last week. The Redskins lost by just three points at Philadelphia and while they did allow a lot of points, they allowed less than 400 yards of offense as one of the Eagles touchdowns came on a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense after finishing 18th and 28th the last two years and while we are just two games in, you can tell the unit has improved. Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Giants have gone over the total in two of three weeks including last week while Washington has gone over the total two of three times also including each of its last two games. The Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Under is 11-5 in the Giants last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants are 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games after one or more straight Overs. The last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the number we are being given this week and is a trend that continues. 10* Under (101) New York Giants/(102) Washington Redskins |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Typically, this could be a great situation going against the Bears after their come from behind win over the 49ers last Sunday night. However, I feel that they will use that as momentum going into this game Monday night and look to get over .500. Chicago lost on opening Sunday against the Bills and that is contributing with this play as an undefeated team coming in here would be a totally different situation. With a game against Green Bay next Sunday, the Bears could be staring at 1-3 should they walk out of here with a defeat. The Jets blew a 21-3 lead over Green Bay last week and that is a tough loss to recover from. They won their home opener against Oakland two weeks ago and while they outgained the Raiders by 244 total yards, it is hard not to overlook the fact they won by just five points. The Jets are playing the kind of football they prefer and that is winning at the line of scrimmage. They lead the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense, becoming the first team since the 2007 Minnesota Vikings to lead those categories in the same week so let's face it, we are only through two weeks of the season. On the other side, the Bears have not taken control of the line of scrimmage as they are looking for a vertical game and with this matchup, they should have huge success. The Jets secondary was torched for 346 yards by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can be just as dangerous with Brandon Marshall and Ashton Jeffery as his main targets. Not only is the Jets secondary battered up but they cannot matchup size wise. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Chicago Bears |
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09-21-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
This is a big game for San Francisco as it looks to avoid a 1-2 start. The 49ers started 1-2 last year and while they finished strong, four regular season losses were too much to avoid having all of their playoff games on the road. Falling to 1-2 again could conceivably put them in the same spot based on the strength of the upcoming schedule. Arizona is 2-0 to open the season but after watching the games, the Cardinals could easily be 0-2 or at the very least 1-1. the comeback against the Chargers was fortunate and last week, those same good fortunes came from the referees. This is the classic example of how turnovers can affect outcomes of games. For the 49ers, they were outgained by 63 total yards against the Cowboys but won comfortably thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. Last week against the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 145 total yards yet lost no thanks to losing the turnover battle 4-0. As for Arizona, it was outgained by the Giants last week by 75 yards but won by 11 points thanks to a 4-0 edge in turnovers. While turnovers are nearly possible to predict, the fact that three of the four games involving these two teams have had turnover margins of +/-4 is rare. And as long as the 49ers are not on the wrong end like last week, they take this one comfortably. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and those five straight up wins have come by a combined score of 129-33. I certainly do not like laying points on the road but this is a sensational spot and San Francisco is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home as a favorite. 10* (471) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 58 m | Show |
Rarely are there must win games this early in a season but this one qualifies for the Giants. They are 0-2 and it has been an ugly 0-2 as they were thumped in Detroit on Monday night and then were defeated at home against Arizona last week. People can talk as much as they want about how bad the offensive transition has been but it has gotten better as each quarter has progressed. Not many teams are going to avoid a 0-2 starts for the season when they are -6 in turnover margin and that is the case for New York. After starting last season 2-0, Houston went on to lose its final 14 games and here it is again with another 2-0 start. The Texans won't be going through another 14-game losing streak this year but I think they are being overvalued in this spot with their first two games coming against the Redskins and Raiders. Unlike the Giants, Houston has benefitted from a positive turnover margin as it is sitting at +5 through two games so the fact there is a turnover differential of 11 between these two teams explains the opposite records we are seeing. Then Texans have totally taken advantage of the turnover situation as they have been outgained in both games thus far despite double-digit winning margins in each. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile Houston has not been good in these spots as it is 0-10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against NFC opponents with a .400 or worse winning percentage. New York faces three division opponents in the next four game after this making this an even bigger priority. 10* (458) New York Giants |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
This line is going exactly where we thought so holding off was the right move and holding off even longer should pay off. This line opened at 5.5 and it is now up to -7 in some spots and going past that would not be surprising. The Falcons are coming off an abysmal game last week at Cincinnati and many will be backing them here looking for a big bounceback at home. I am not one of those as the Falcons continue to be overrated and because of that, they continue to be overpriced. The offense is full of weapons no doubt but the defense is bad and Tampa Bay should have success moving the ball. We have not seen the Buccaneers do much on offense but they have faced two of the stronger defensive lines in all of football and now will be facing one of the weakest. Atlanta gave up 139 yards rushing to New Orleans and 170 yards rushing to the Bengals and overall the Falcons are ranked dead last in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 26th in rushing defense. Tampa Bay isn't going to scare many people with this offense but like last year, this is a perfect opponent. The Buccaneers surpassed 300 yards only five times and two times came against the Falcons including their highest output of the year. Tampa Bay can take advantage this year as it is averaging 5.5 ypc, third best in the league. We have seen the home team win and cover the first two Thursday night games this season and there is the theory that many go by where as to take the home team but the host is just 9-8 ATS on Thursday night going back to the start of last season. 10* (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
The Colts backdoored us last week as they scored twice in the final eight minutes to cover the number against Denver. They now head home where they definitely need a victory to avoid going 0-2 and I am very confident they will even up their record. Indianapolis was able to outgain the Broncos last Sunday night by 47 yards which has been a rarity over the last couple years as it has typically been on the wrong side of the stat sheet. One thing we do know is that the Colts have been the best bounce back team in the NFL over the last two years and it happens to coincide with the arrival of Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the number following a loss during the regular season over those two years. While the winning margin was only 4.8 ppg in 2012, it rose to 11.8 ppg last season. The Eagles spotted Jacksonville a 17-0 lead at halftime as turnovers along with an offense that could not get going and they looked to be in serious danger. However the second half was all Philadelphia as it outscored the Jaguars 34-0 to win its season opener for the fourth straight season. The Eagles were an excellent road team last season, going 6-2 overall but it defeated only one team that went to the playoffs and that was Green Bay who was playing without Aaron Rodgers so even that win can be thrown out. They will be going into a very tough environment on Monday and justifiably so as this is the first Monday night home game for Indianapolis since Luck came aboard so the Colts will have a big home field edge. Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (280) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. Chicago and San Francisco are both coming off unders last week and that is helping keep this total at a playable number. The Bears and Bills finished at 43 in a game that went to overtime and it stayed under the total of 47. The 49ers and Cowboys finished at 45 points and it stayed under the total of 49. This week, we are catching a number right around the same range and I am expecting a total different outcome. When you think of the Bears and 49ers, you think of defense. Well that is not necessarily the case here. Chicago finished with the 30th ranked defense last season and while it did ok last week against Buffalo, the Bills offense is nothing special at all. The defense will have a much tougher task this week. San Francisco had the fifth ranked defense last season but it did allow 382 yards last week and while still formidable, they do have some issues and the absence of Aldon smith is big. Chicago can take advantage of an average rushing defense which can help open up the passing game. Here, we play the over involving home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Chicago is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after playing a game at home while San Francisco is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* Over (277) Chicago Bears/(278) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle has a very big scheduling advantage in this game as it opened its season last Thursday so it will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Chargers are coming off a Monday night game. Normally, that needs to be taken into account but because of the venue switches and the outcomes from last week, it is not as significant. The Seahawks proved that they are again the team to beat as they took care of Green Bay by 20 points while outgaining the Packers by 143 yards. That game was at home however where Seattle is 18-1 over its last 19 games and on the road over that same stretch, it is 9-8 so clearly it is a different team away from CenturyLink Field. But the Seahawks are favored for a reason and favored big yet the public is still all over them as they are the second biggest betting consensus of the weekend. The Chargers had the game against Arizona in their grasp yet failed to hold on as they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by a point. While they are not in the same class as Seattle, not many are, they are in the situation to keep up. Coming back to San Diego for the home opener against the Super Bowl champions is big enough but you have to also take into consideration that the Seahawks have a date with Denver on tap next week. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and they fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show |
We played against the Patriots last week and after getting outscored 23-0 in the second half against Miami, they fell to 0-1 for the first time since 2003. They rebounded the following week then on the road at Philadelphia and I expect the same again this year. New England is still an elite team even though it looked far from it last week and it has been one of the best, it not the best, bounce back teams in the NFL over the last decade. Since the year they lost that season opener, the Patriots have dropped consecutive games during the regular season only four times and have gone 33-4 in their 37 games following a regular season loss. That is pretty impressive and you can give the credit to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for those rebound efforts. Brady is 24-9 ATS following a loss while under Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games following a road loss and 11-3 ATS off a divisional loss as a favorite. Minnesota took care of St. Louis last week as the Vikings took advantage of the quarterback situation for the Rams. Despite the 28-point win, Minnesota only outgained the Rams by 28 yards as it won the turnover battle 2-0 and benefitted from the Rams committing 13 penalties for 121 yards. They will not be handed that sort of advantage this week and despite being a solid home underdog over the years, this is not the spot for that success to go on. The defense allowed only 318 yards against St. Louis but they were able to crowd the box and try and let Shaun Hill and Austin Davis beat them,. They cannot do that with Brady. 10* (261) New England Patriots |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
With the whole Ray Rice fiasco taking place in Baltimore, this is a game the Ravens will need to focus on and put the distractions behind them. That being said, this is a spot where the defense can really come up big and I expect that side to dominate on both sides. This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight. Baltimore suffered a bad loss against Cincinnati at home last week but the one thing it did do good was hold the Bengals to five field goals in their first five scoring chances. The Ravens allowed 380 yards which isn't great but it isn't horrible either. Pittsburgh lit up the Browns defense for 490 total yards but I certainly don't see that happening here. The Steelers are still a ruin first team and even when they don't protecting the quarterback is an issue. While the Bengals have a great offensive line, the Steelers do not so we should see a lot of penetration. Offensively, the Ravens have to run the ball and they should now know that after throwing 62 times last week including a bunch of those that were dropped. The Steelers defense is not bad as the one that allowed Cleveland to score 27 points as they had a big lead and took the pedal off the gas. The defenses have dominated this series in the past and will do so again. 10* Under (101) Pittsburgh Steelers/(102) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. While the road team is getting points here, I don't know if the Chargers necessarily should be. San Diego is coming off a 9-7 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their first playoff game since 2008. The Chargers should be even better this season after winning the yardage battle is 11 of 16 regular season games. According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. The Chargers addressed the team's two most glaring needs heading into the offseason by upgrading the talent at cornerback and edge rusher. Arizona went 10-6 last season but failed to make the playoffs and I don't see it getting any better this season. The defense was the strength a season ago but the Cardinals will be without the team's best defensive player in Daryl Washington (suspension), along with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett (ACL injury) and perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. Additionally, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is expected to miss the game, which is a huge blow because so much of this offense is designed around his abilities. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog and is 9-3-1 ATS in that role the last two seasons. Look for the Chargers to have too much on both sides of the ball with so many key players out for Arizona. 10* (491) San Diego Chargers |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants +6.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. The Giants are coming off a disappointing season so a quick start is could be the answer. After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start prior to back-to-back road games at Philadelphia and Dallas. The offense was ugly last season as the Giants managed a mere 18.4 ppg and they were outgained in 10 of 16 games. A new system has been put in place in order for Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quicker and help avoid a repeat where he was sacked 39 times and had the worse passer rating of his career. Even though we didn't see it in the preseason, I expect it to improve. Detroit closed on a four-game losing streak and while I do think they will be a better team this season, the Lions are laying too many points here. They have a wealth of offensive weapons and have Jim Caldwell as the new boss, but they have been chirping about being Super Bowl contenders and that is a little farfetched at this point. They have a tough matchup as only four of 16 opponents managed to outgain their average passer rating against the Giants last season and overall, they ranked sixth in passer rating allowed. The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Giants have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (489) New York Giants |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007 but there is a real possibility that could change this season. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last season which cost head coach Greg Schiano his job and they went out and brought in Lovie Smith which I feel was the best hire in the offseason. He was great in Chicago but was fired despite a 10-6 record in his final season so he brings in a winning attitude right from the start. Tampa Bay has an easy schedule and is a sleeper pick to win the division just like Carolina was a season ago. The Panthers went from three straight losing seasons to winning the NFC South thanks to an 11-1 run that vaulted them into the playoffs. They did make an early exit in the playoffs and this division has notoriously been up for grabs every season as there has not been a repeat champion ever. Carolina has the second ranked scoring defense in the NFL last season and it will be stout once again but there are questions on the offense. The offensive line is a mess and quarterback Cam Newton is not healthy. Newton will be wearing a flak jacket to protect a hairline rib fracture. Leaving during the offseason were Steve Smith Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Newton with a host of new receivers including veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant so the offense is a big question right now. The Buccaneers defense will be better even though it wasn't horrible last season as along with the defensive minded Smith, Leslie Frazier takes over as defensive coordinator. The Panthers have failed to cover five straight season openers and the favorite is 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings. 10* (484) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
There are three home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Two years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Championship. Last year, the wheels fell off and Atlanta went 4-12. After taking such a hard fall in 2013, I expect the Falcons to bounce back and while they may not be as good as two years ago, they won't be as bad as last season. Injuries played a big role in their regression but Atlanta was still competitive as of those 12 losses, seven were by a touchdown or less including five by four points or less. New Orleans meanwhile bounced back from a 7-9 season in 2012 without Sean Payton to a 12-6 record last season that again included a trip to the playoffs. Expectations are high once again for the Saints and they do have a schedule that sets up pretty well for success. They are a different team on the road however as they went 3-5 on the highway compared to 8-0 at home last season and they were a bust as a road chalk, going 0-4 ATS in that role. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series and under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian situation based on last season as we play on underdogs or pickems who won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (464) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
After five straight seasons of making it to the playoffs including a Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens went just 8-8 last season and failed to make the postseason. Disappointing seasons from quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice contributed to that and even a little better output for them would have gotten them to the postseason considering five losses came by five points or less including four by a field goal or less. While Rice will not be in action as he is serving a two-game suspension, we are catching a great number here in the opening game. The Bengals are the slight favorites to repeat as AFC North champions following an 11-5 season a year ago. They could not get out of the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season though but they again will be right in the mix. Cincinnati was undefeated at home during the regular season but went just 3-5 on the road with just one of those wins coming against a team with a .500 or better record. The Bengals have dropped their season openers in five of the last seven years including the last two, going 1-4-1 ATS in that stretch. Baltimore meanwhile has won five of its last six openers with the one loss coming last year in Denver in a big revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season. Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS L23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings and has covered four straight in this series. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued last season when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. This year, the past Super Bowl Champion gets to host again as Seattle opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champ to open the season with a victory and improve to 12-2 in season openers the last 14 years. The Seahawks home field edge is the best in football as they have won 17 of their last 18 home games, losing last year to Arizona as Russell Wilson had one of his worst starts in his young career. Green Bay looks to start the season strong following a poor season last year that was directly related to Aaron Rodgers being out for a portion of the season. The Packers should be able to get back into the elite club of the NFL but this is not the place to start as this is a bad spot and a bad matchup. The defense struggles against quarterbacks that move and while the Packers offense is one of the best, these are the defenses they struggle against the most. Going back, Seattle is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 home games while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last sox home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 25-10 ATS in its 35 home games. Green Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (462) Seattle Seahawks |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 294 h 10 m | Show |
Based on the fact that this game is being played outdoors in a cold weather environment, many will be expecting a low scoring game but weather rarely dictates how totals come through. A classic example this season was the Lions Eagles game where they played in a snowstorm the entire game and the game ended up going over. The one weather element that can have an affect on an outdoor football game is wind but it needs to be substantial and the long range forecast for Super Bowl Sunday is a temperature in the high 20's to low 30's and moderate wind. This can certainly change and if anything severe comes into play, we can buy this back but for now, we are playing the over and we likely are not going to see numbers as low as this as a steady rise of the total up until game time is expected. We are catching extraordinary value in this total from the Denver standpoint as this is the lowest total it has seen all season with the exception of opening day where it was the same and of course we saw 76 points scored in that one. The Broncos have gone under the total in five straight games after going over in 11 of their first 13 games and that is helping with the value. Also helping is the fact that the Seattle defense is ranked number one in the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Seahawks are allowing just 275.1 ypg and 13.6 ppg and while the points have not increased much in the playoffs, they have allowed 717 yards in their two playoff games and now they will be facing the most potent offense in the NFL on Super Bowl Sunday. Seattle has gone under in seven straight games and while this is the highest total of the bunch, it is for good reason and will only get higher. Denver has an average defense and Seattle has shown the ability it can score but the feeling here is that the Seahawks may not need that many points to push this one over. Two situations are on our side as well. First, we play on the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team (Seattle) that is coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense that is allowing 17 or less ppg. This situation is 30-10 (75 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Second, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team (Denver) that is averaging 27 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 27-5 (84.4 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (101) Seattle Seahawks/(102) Denver Broncos
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
I will be using some of the same analysis from the other play as it pertains here as well. While the Denver offense has been the best in the NFL this season, Seattle has the ingredients to slow it down, not necessarily stop it but that isn't imperative. The Seahawks offense has not looked it best of late but it will be facing a Broncos defense that has been playing over its head the last four games by allowing no more than 17 points the last four games. They had allowed 17 points or less only once in their previous 14 games and the Seahawks are ranked eighth in the league in points scored so they will get their production in what I feel is a very good matchup. Defense is the key when it comes to the big game. This is just the fifth Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger to match up the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense. It's been advantage defense with those teams going 4-1 in past Super Bowls. Additionally, this is the 16th time that the defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL has made the Super Bowl since the merger. The previous 15 teams went 12-3 in those Super Bowls. As mentioned, I don't think Seattle can stop the Broncos offense, despite the top ranked overall and scoring defense in the NFL but I do think the Seahawks can certainly slow them down with the best secondary in football. They were first in yards allowed, first in interceptions and first in yards per attempt. Any sort of pass rush will get Peyton Manning flustered enough which will lead to mistakes or lack of production at the very least. Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record including a perfect 6-0 ATS record when the opposition has a winning percentage of .750 or better. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game when getting points. Looking at power rankings alone and Seattle is the better team that has played a tougher schedule to get here, including the playoffs. I was hoping to get a better line with the public lining up behind Denver and while that still may happen, we will pull the trigger now on the Seahawks getting points of any kind as they should be the team that is favored on Sunday. 10* (101) Seattle Seahawks
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -101 | 151 h 12 m | Show |
After the first meeting in Seattle this season, won by the Seahawks by 26 points, many are expecting a similar outcome in the NFC Championship. Not here. The 49ers are a much different team this time around and in that first meeting in Seattle, they were without a few players, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis for the second half, that are now back in the lineup. While there may be some who think that San Francisco playing for a third straight week in the playoffs is at a disadvantage but that is not the case. The 49ers momentum is off the charts right now plus the past three Super Bowl champions have had to play three straight playoff games so there is hardly a disadvantage. San Francisco is the only team entering the conference championships that didn't have a first-round bye and has had to play on the road. With eight straight wins including the last three all on the road, it is far from a big deal. We all know Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and while it is coming off a seemingly easy victory over the Saints, what is hidden is the fact that the Seahawks allowed 409 total yards and were outgained by 132 yards. That is not good news facing a 49ers offense that is moving the ball with great precision right now. On the other side, the 49ers are ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense and they have allowed only 15.2 ppg in its past 11 games. San Francisco manhandled Carolina's offense in seven goal-to-go situations in the first half, preventing them from scoring a short touchdown with two great goal-line stands. There are still many 3.5's out there and that is the number to get on as a game decided by a field goal either way is what we are expecting here. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (303) San Francisco 49ers
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots +5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 52 m | Show |
Denver opened as high as -7 in some spots and that number came down almost immediately as the early money hammered New England. While we are not getting the same big number here, we are still getting a very strong number as the overvaluation of the Broncos continues. Denver outgained San Diego by 104 totals yards and despite a 24-7 lead, it was unable to hold onto the cover as the Chargers suck in the backdoor. Taking nothing away from San Diego, but when comparing lines, the Chargers are not only three points worse than New England which is what the numbers are telling us. The Broncos and Patriots are very evenly matched as their one-game record difference justifies but the Broncos are still getting too much credit here. The home/road splits are having an effect on that but when looking at New England's four road losses, three were by four points or less while the other one was by seven points in a torrential rainstorm in Cincinnati. A big advantage is that for the Patriots, they are as healthy and as deep as they have been all season in the secondary, which is ideal. The matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is epic in itself and while both have been incredible throughout their careers, we have to give an edge to Brady as he has won 10 of the previous 14 matchups between the two including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. While past history can mean little, the fact that he has Bill Belichick with him on the sidelines is huge in the postseason. While the Patriots postseason ATS numbers have been average of late, they are usually favored and they have won 17 of 25 games with Brady at quarterback. New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in January. 10* (301) New England Patriots
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
We won with San Diego on Sunday as it went on the road and took care of the Bengals with relative ease. Many will be bucking the Chargers this week as they feel they cannot manage another strong game for a second straight week, especially against the high powered Broncos. I may be in the minority but I think the Chargers can in fact do it again and they certainly are not intimidated by playing in Denver as they have already won here, handing the Broncos their lone home loss of the season. Sure, Denver will be out for revenge but that does not mean San Diego will be any less motivated this time around. The Broncos were in a similar position last year as heavy home favorites but they ended up losing to Baltimore in overtime in a game that they never covered. That will have no impact here whatsoever as Denver cannot be expected to pick it up a notch to avoid a similar outcome. It comes down to matchups and the Chargers do in fact match up very well with Denver. And a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. The Denver offense has run fewer than 65 plays in two games this season, both against McCoy's Chargers and that is no coincidence. The Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In two games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. Quarterback Philip Rivers says that this is his favorite road venue to play at and he has quietly put together one of his best seasons ever and I expect that to continue against the banged up and below average Broncos defense. San Diego falls into a solid situation as we p[lay against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* San Diego Chargers
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 3 m | Show |
San Francisco was able to win in the final seconds in Green Bay to advance to the Divisional round to take on Carolina. I like the value with Carolina at home but the 49ers are on a roll right now and it is tough to get in their way but as far as the total goes, there is one clear cut way to go. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL and that was on display in the first meeting between these two teams which resulted in a 10-9 Carolina win in San Francisco. That is part of a run that has seen the Panthers stay under the total in eight of their last nine games and that is certainly a streak I prefer going against, especially this time of year. The 49ers and Packers stayed under in their game in the first round and that snapped a streak of three straight overs for San Francisco so the potential for high scoring games is definitely there. As mentioned in the Seattle/New Orleans total analysis, while each game is different than the rest and none are based on the past, Divisional round games are 11-1 to the over the last three years and I do not think this is just a coincidence. Both teams come in with significant situations on their sides. First, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off two or more consecutive unders, with a defense allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Second, we play the over involving teams coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .750 or higher. This situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Third, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more consecutive unders, with an offense averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg. This situation is 25-7 (78.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (115) San Francisco 49ers/(116) Carolina Panthers
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 126 h 28 m | Show |
We were on the Colts last week as they were able to overcome a 38-10 deficit and put out the miraculous victory in the second greatest playoff comeback of all time. While it may be hard to imagine a letdown effect in the playoffs, Indianapolis could very well see some of that this week. As mentioned last week, the Colts are playing arguably their best football of the season, this is the toughest task of this current stretch. Indianapolis has won four straight games but it has outgained opponents by only an average of only 56 ypg and three of those games were at home. The Colts are 5-3 on the road but one of those wins came against Jacksonville while two others came by three points against non-playoff teams Tennessee and Houston. Yes, there were impressive wins over San Francisco and Kansas City, but neither of those teams were playing with extra rest like New England is. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye including easy wins the last two years in the Divisional round against teams coming off home wins. New England is 8-0 at home this season, covering six of those games including a perfect 6-0 ATS when the line is less than 9.5 points. This is where Tom Brady shines and he could have a field day Saturday night. The Indianapolis defense struggled to stop the Chiefs Sunday, particularly through the air, making it seem as though there could be some holes there for New England to exploit. And with a solid running game, the balanced attack will be too much for the Colts. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win and they are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games in December and January. The Colts meanwhile are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (114) New England Patriots
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 38 m | Show |
Last season, every favorite covered in the opening round of the playoffs but this year, the Wildcard round was an underdog bettors dream as all four underdogs covered the closing lines so late bettors were able to cash all four tickets. We were on every one of those dogs but we will be switching it up in the first game on Saturday and backing the Seahawks. Seattle had an opening round bye which has been a big benefit the last two years as teams with a bye have gone 6-2 in the Divisional round and Seattle knows all about this as it was taken out by Atlanta last season following a road win. Now the Seahawks are on the opposite side of things as they now host a team coming off a road win. The Saints won their first ever playoff road game at Philadelphia but the Eagles did not possess the same home field edge that the Seahawks have. They are 7-1 at home and one of those wins was a complete domination of New Orleans as they held the Saints to just 188 total yards. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson had one of his best games of the season, completing 22 of 30 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns. I do not think they will dominate as much this time around but they should walk out with a comfortable win on Saturday. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Look for New Orleans to put up a better fight but the Seahawks pull away late for another comfortable win. 10* (112) Seattle Seahawks
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
It can be argued that the Packers got pretty fortunate to make it into the playoffs thanks to their great come from behind win over the Bears thanks to a 48-yard touchdown pass in the final minute or the fluke fumble return touchdown in the first half. Still, this is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and after outgaining the Bears by 128 yards on Sunday, the Packers deserve it. Green Bay went 2-5-1 without Rodgers, counting the Chicago game where he left early and 6-2 with him so those that may complain about getting a home game against a team that is 3.5 games better, I will be the first to say the Packers deserve it. This game opened at a pick and jumped to the 49ers being favored in a matter of minutes and I will take those points any day. This is taking nothing away from the 49ers which are a very solid team as they are 12-4 and come in riding a six-game winning streak which is always important heading into the playoffs. Five of those wins came against non-playoff teams however and while the win over Seattle was big, it was at home in a big revenge spot. They won the last game in Arizona but were outgained by 107 yards and their last road game against a quality opponent was at New Orleans and despite losing by just three points, they were outgained by 191 total yards. The early forecast in Green Bay is a big edge for the Packers as it is expected to snow with temperatures in the teens. Let's not forget Green Bay lost in San Francisco opening week and it falls into a great revenge situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss by seven points or less to opponent, off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Green Bay Packers
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 42 m | Show |
Let me start off by saying that the Chargers are extremely fortunate to be here as the Chiefs missed a winning field goal that would have put the Steelers into the playoffs. On top of that, the NFL acknowledged that San Diego should have been penalized for an illegal formation that would have given Kansas City another shot at a field goal. San Diego ended up winning in overtime and we have seen numerous times over the years that teams which get away with such things can ride that into the playoffs and the Chargers could be another one of those. San Diego finished the season 9-7 but it is hard to ignore the fact it won its final four games to get into the postseason including a very impressive win at Denver. The Chargers last loss was at home against Cincinnati and to be clear, this is not a play based on road revenge but it certainly doesn't hurt it being in our favor. It is no secret that the Bengals dominated at home this season going a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number. Don't think for a second that the linesmakers do not know this and we are getting a very good line because of it. The Chargers were 10-point dogs in their last road game at Denver so this is saying that Cincinnati is just three points worse than Denver on a neutral field. I don't think so. The Bengals have a solid home field edge no doubt but I am expecting a much closer than expected game and we cannot rule out a San Diego outright victory as this is a very solid team. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) San Diego Chargers
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
At this point, most everyone knows about the Saints trouble on the road as they are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games but something says they step it up in the playoffs starting Saturday in Philadelphia. New Orleans was dominant in its last game which was a must win against Tampa Bay and while it was not a win against a quality team, it was in fact a big win with momentum to carry over into here. Additionally, the Saints have a very good matchup against a poor Philadelphia defense that they can take advantage of. Philadelphia closed the season very strong with wins in seven of its last eight games so it clearly comes in with some positive momentum as well. The Eagles have been nothing special at home, going 4-4 and while that does include wins in their last four games, this is the biggest test to date. They are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and they have not fared well overall against the better teams, going just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against winning teams. New Orleans should have plenty of success on offense as the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in total defense and New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against defenses allowing 350 or more ypg including a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams allowing 260 or mpre passing ypg. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 12 m | Show |
I am a firm believer of not resting starters in the final week of the regular season even if a playoff berth or a playoff seed is already locked up. While it avoids injury, it also takes away any momentum that a team may have had heading into the postseason. Kansas City rested its starters in Week 17 against the Chargers and nearly pulled off the upset and a week off for the starters probably will not affect them as it is just like a bye week. The issue here is that the Chiefs had no momentum to begin with so winning that final game could have been a big confidence boost. They opened the season 9-0 but closed by going 2-5 over their last seven games and at 9-0, many suspected they were a fraud. I still believe that. The Chiefs are 0-3 this season against teams ranked in the top ten in the NFL while the Colts are 4-2 and while that record difference is impressive enough, it shows a much tougher schedule that the Colts have played, 11th vs. 26th for Kansas City. Indianapolis won its final three games of the season including a win at Kansas City so it comes in with plenty of momentum. I am rarely an advocate of road revenge, which the Chiefs are in, and that is certainly no reason to back them here. The Colts are 6-2 at home with losses coming against Miami and St. Louis despite outgaining both. Two quality home wins came against Seattle and Denver and those teams had only three losses apiece all season long. Here, we play on home teams off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. The Colts get it done at home. 10* (102) Indianapolis Colts
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 81 h 0 m | Show |
The winner of this game takes the NFC East and as of right now, the Eagles are being handed the division based on this line and the talking heads saying Dallas has no chance. Obviously the loss of Tony Romo is huge and while he has not been completely rules out, the chances of him playing are extremely slim but Kyle Orton is a very capable backup. Taking snaps with the first team all week definitely is a plus and while everyone talks about how bad the Cowboys defense is, people fail to realize that the Eagles defense is just as bad as they are ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Cowboys has a legitimate shot of piling on points, Romo or not. The Eagles are coming off a blowout win which is another reason the public loves them but if anything that gives us a great opportunity to go against them. While they are 5-2 on the road, four of those wins came against teams 4-11, 4-11, 3-12 and 6-9 with the other coming against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is 0-4 ATS its last four games and that is a streak I love playing against. Also, we have two situations in our favor. First we play on home underdogs or pickems in the last two weeks of the regular season after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1983. also, we play against road favorites averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Dallas Cowboys
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12-29-13 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 56 m | Show |
We won with the Patriots last week as they rolled in Baltimore. Normally that would signal a play against spot this week, or at the very least, a no play but that is not the case this week. New England still has a lot at stake as it needs to win to clinch a first round bye and it can still claim home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss. There will be no letting up from the Patriots and even more so as they remember how they almost lost in Buffalo in Week One. The Bills put together one of their best games of the season last week as they shut out Miami and held the Dolphins to 103 total yards of offense. Don't expect that again as Buffalo has held opponents to fewer than 300 yards five other times and allowed 483, 386, 300, 423 and 354 next time out. Here we play against road teams that are coming off a double-digit win as home underdogs. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1989. Also, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) New England Patriots
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13 | Top | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 55 m | Show |
The Broncos were torching every team they played early in the season but they have not looked close to the same over the last few weeks. They are 6-3 ATS over their last nine games since losing their first game of the season at Indianapolis and while that record contradicts the first sentence, Denver has been able to pull away late in some games to grab the cover that it hasn't always deserved. The Broncos need to win this game to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs since New England losing at home to Buffalo is unlikely so they are playing for something but that doesn't always mean a cover comes along with it as these must win lines are inflated which is certainly the case here. Oakland has lost three straight games by double-digits and five straight overall so it may seem like the Raiders have quit but that is not the case. They have actually won the yardage battle in two of the five losses and the worse they have been outgained by is 79 total yards. And let's face it, this is the Denver game and Oakland would like nothing more than to play spoiler. Despite a 4-11 record, Oakland is getting outgained by less than 20 ypg and it should have no issues on offense facing a struggling and injured Broncos stop unit. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (326) Oakland Raiders
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12-29-13 | NY Jets +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 30 m | Show |
Miami played its worst game of the season last week in Buffalo as its anemic offense could not get anything going. Now the Dolphins are in a must win situation but we cannot forget that must wins do not always translate into victories. After last week, the Dolphins are being asked to win by a touchdown which is too much to ask for, especially in a divisional game where the teams are separated by just one game in the standings. The Jets have not layed well on the road this season, going just 1-6 and while I do not typically play road revenge, I am making an exception here, at least partially. Motivation is a huge part of Week 17 in the NFL and with the Jets out of the playoffs, many will write them off here thinking the towel has been thrown in. However, the Jets were embarrassed at home against Miami in the beginning of December as they lost 23-3 and got outgained 453-177. These teams hate each other already so there is no way the Jets lay down here, especially with the fact that a win gets them to .500 for the season which is a significant accomplishment. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (317) New York Jets
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
With the Seahawks stunning loss on Sunday, this game suddenly becomes pretty important for the 49ers. San Francisco is just a half-game ahead of Arizona in the NFC West and they have to travel there next week to face the Cardinals. That makes this a must win game for San Francisco but must wins do not always correlate into actual wins and in this case, we have seen a significant line shift from the opener as San Francisco is now over a two-touchdown favorite. The Falcons season has been done for a long time so while they could pack this one in, I expect them to not sit down and a lot of that is due to experience the other way. So far this season, the Falcons have done well in continuing to play hard despite having been eliminated from the playoffs. They are just 2-2 over their last four games but the two losses have been by just a combined five points. Last season, in a game in which they had nothing to play for, they put forth one of their worst performances of the season as they had already locked up the top seed in the NFC for the playoffs they lost to a 7-9 Tampa Bay team 22-17 at the Georgia Dome. This is a great opportunity to close the season with a big victory and hosting Carolina next week, playing the role of spoiler is the last remaining goal. I rarely play road revenge and I am not basing this one on that but there is no doubt that Atlanta players will step it up and try to make up for their home loss last season in the playoffs. Here, we play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Atlanta is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (131) Atlanta Falcons
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
We played against the Eagles last week in Minnesota as they had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 48-30 loss. Philadelphia still sits atop the NFC East at 8-6, one game ahead of the Cowboys after they blew a big lead against Green Bay and lost. There is an interesting dynamic playing out here since the Eagles and Cowboys meet in the final week of the regular season next week. Should Dallas lose against Washington earlier in the day, the Eagles could clinch the division with a victory. Should the Cowboys win, this game is meaningless as far as the NFC East goes because that would make the winner of next week's game the champ. Does that mean Philadelphia sits down should Dallas win? Absolutely not and don't let the talking heads tell you otherwise. A victory over the Bears would put Philadelphia into the third seed in the NFC and that means it would avoid a trip to Seattle in the second round which is always big. Obviously, this game means a lot for the Bears as well but coming off two straight wins, I am expecting a reversal of the good fortunes here. Chicago is just 5-6 since opening the season 3-0 including going 2-4 in its last six road games. The Eagles have not been a great team at home this season, going 3-4 but they have won two straight and three of their last four and this is the last regular season home game of the year. Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. Additionally, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-63 ATS (63.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
The Patriots suffered a brutal loss last week at Miami as they had a chance to win the game but Tom Brady got intercepted in the endzone in the final seconds. New England wasted a golden opportunity to take charge of the AFC after Denver lost on Thursday now it needs to take care of its own business and get some help along the way. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win or a Miami loss and they will know the Dolphins outcome around kickoff but that will not dictate how they play out this game and they still have a chance at home field throughout the playoffs and the one thing it cannot to do to attain that is lose. New England fell to 3-4 on the road but it is in great position here to even that record up. The Ravens won in Detroit Monday night to keep the pressure on Cincinnati in the AFC North. Baltimore can actually clinch a playoff berth with a win here coupled with losses by the Dolphins and Chargers but taking care of their own part will be difficult enough. The Ravens have won four straight games but the last three have been by a combined seven points and they were outgained in all three of those on top of it. At 6-1 at home, they continue to have one of the best home fields in football but Baltimore will have trouble keeping up here. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a road loss and they fall into a situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Even better, Brady is 17-3 ATS in his 20 games coming off a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. 10* (129) New England Patriots
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 39 m | Show |
I have played against the Saints in each of their last five road games and we have cashed a ticket each time as New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games on the highway, losing four of those outright. We are bucking that trend this week however as in each of the past instances, the Saints were in horrible spots, whether it be them or their opponent being in a great spot but that is not the case this week. This is the third time this season that New Orleans is playing consecutive road games but the first two times, it won the first game so this marks the first time this season that it will be on the road following a road loss and New Orleans is 5-2 in the Sean Payton era in the second game of such a scenario. Carolina has suffered one loss in its last 10 games and that was a 31-13 defeat at New Orleans two weeks ago. This puts the Panthers in a major revenge spot and the public will be lining up behind them. Admittedly, I thought Carolina was very overrated midway through the season but it proved me wrong with impressive wins over San Francisco and New England in consecutive weeks but at this stage of the season we are simply backing the better team with the better coach in the role of an underdog. While the Saints lost by nine points last week, they outgained the Rams 432-302 as turnovers were the difference. In their four losses, the Saints are -7 in turnover margin so taking care of the ball here is key which I think they accomplish. New Orleans is 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton coming off a road loss and it falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 69 h 50 m | Show |
The Bengals had a chance to get closer to a division title but they fell behind early and big to the Steelers and were unable to recover. Cincinnati had a couple late drives for touchdowns to make the game look more respectable to it was pretty much over after three quarters. Now the Bengals return home and they can clinch the AFC North division title by beating the Vikings and watching Baltimore lose or tie against the Patriots. Playing at home has been different than the road as the Bengals are 6-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 16 ppg. While next week's game against Baltimore may seem like the big one, this is the big one as far as Cincinnati is concerned as it does not want to division to come down to the final regular season game. We won with Minnesota last week as it took care of the Eagles without much of a problem. The Vikings took an early 7-0 lead and never trailed which gave them a much needed win following three straight games they could have won but ended up going 1-1-1. That victory also gave them three straight wins at home but like the Bengals, the road has not been as kind as Minnesota is 0-6-1 on the highway as has been outscored by close to eight ppg. Coming off that huge home win, I expect a big letdown this week. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog while the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (116) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions UNDER 50.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Ravens/Lions under here as we waited this one out and as expected, the total has continued to rise as it is now 50 as of Monday morning. It has gone up two to three and half points across the board and it is a number I feel was too big to begin with. Both teams are coming off high scoring games and each has gone over in two straight games which is helping us with this number being as high as it is. The Ravens are coming off that improbable finish last week where five touchdown were scored in just over he final two minutes to turn a 12-7 game into a 39-26 final. Meanwhile Detroit and Philadelphia put up 54 points in a snowstorm despite just eight points scored in the first half. These games came after both teams surpassed the number on Thanksgiving and I expect to see a much lower scoring game here with the defenses playing a big part with playoff implications on the line for both sides. The under is 7-3 in the Ravens last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 4-1 in the Lions last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* Under (333) Baltimore Ravens/(334) Detroit Lions
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
The Steelers were a few inches away from an improbable come-from-behind win against Miami last week and now at 5-8, it is really must win time. Winning out is now the only possibility and even at 8-8, nothing is guaranteed as Baltimore has the upper hand in the AFC as a win this week puts Pittsburgh in a tough spot but that game is not until Monday so the Steelers will be fully focused here. A divisional rivalry only adds to it as Pittsburgh will be out to make up for the 20-10 loss in Cincinnati in Week Two. The Steelers troubles have been on the road for the most part as they are 3-3 at home but 3-1 after a 0-2 start. Cincinnati has won and covered three straight games and a win this week would clinch the AFC North along with a Baltimore loss so the Bengals will not be laying down. The issue is that they are a different team on the road as they are 3-4 compared to a perfect 6-0 at home. Cincinnati lost two of those road games in overtime so the record could be better but at the same time, it also won a game in overtime and won another by three points against the Lions. We won with the Bengals in their last road game at San Diego but the Chargers were coming off a huge win Kansas City while the Bengals were coming off a bye so the situation was completely different to this week. The Steelers fall into a superb contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 60-29 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1983. Pittsburgh is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (332) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | Top | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
The Eagles won their fifth straight game last week in a snowstorm at home as they defeated the Lions 34-20. They have covered four of those and now the public is backing them to keep the streak going to this is no easy task on the road in Minnesota. Philadelphia has not been on the road in a month as it has had three straight home games along with a bye in there as well. Granted, the Eagles have won four straight road games and are 5-1 on the highway this season but now they come in being favored by the most points on the highway this season. The Vikings lost a crazy game in Baltimore last week as they were up 12-7 with just over two minutes left and then the fireworks took off as there were five touchdown scored in the final 2:05 including the game winner by the Ravens with four seconds remaining. It was a tough loss to take and with Leslie Frasier on the chopping block, players are not going to quit but continue to play hard for jobs for next season. Minnesota has won its last two games at home and it is 5-2 ATS as an underdog of less than a touchdown this season. Minnesota falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Also, the Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing their last game on the road and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games while the Eagles are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. Look for Minnesota to keep this one close and an outright win is certainly not out of the question. 10* (324) Minnesota Vikings
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 56.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
We won with the under in this matchup in Week 10 and we will be going with the under in this rematch. Obviously betting a Denver under can be a bit unnerving considering it is 11-2 to the over this season but that is where the value comes into play. The Broncos have gone over the total in each of their last three games and no surprise that this number is the highest of them all. This offense has been pretty much unstoppable this season as Denver is first in both total offense and scoring offense and while the Chargers defense has not been very strong, the Broncos were held to their lowest yardage total of the season in the first meeting. Additionally, San Diego is 11th in the NFL in scoring defense. San Diego is coming off a high scoring game as well as its game with the Giants totaled 51 points so that also is helping us out this week. The Chargers have actually gone under in six of their last nine games after opening the season 3-1 to the over. San Diego has been unable to put any offensive consistency together as they have scored 30 or more points four times but the first three times they did that this season, they have followed it up with 17, 17 and 10 points in the next game. The Chargers are 29-15 to the under in their last 44 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more and they are 9-3 to the under in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points last time out. Denver meanwhile falls into a great situation where we play on the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 (7703 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (301) San Diego Chargers/(302) Denver Broncos
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
With Green Bay winning and Detroit losing, the Bears know this is a must win game for them to hang around in the NFC North race. After losing their last two games, both on the road, Chicago is now 6-6 on the season and a win puts it into a tie with Detroit for first place. Making it more important is that the Bears lost both meetings with the Lions and when they face Green bay in the season finale, the Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback. In-between are two more road games so Chicago needs to take care of business at home. The Bears have been a money-burning team of late as they have lost four straight against the number and are 1-8 ATS over their last nine games which is going to keep the public off from playing them and is helping us with a good number this week. The Cowboys meanwhile have won two straight games and are now a half game back of the Eagles after their win yesterday over the Lions. That obviously makes this a big game for them as well but they are just 2-4 on the road this season and going back, they are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 road games coming off a non-conference game. Defensively, Dallas is allowing over 450 ypg on the road and Chicago has an offense that will take advantage. Dallas is ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 294.9 ypg and that goes up to over 300 ypg on the road so Chicago's sixth-ranked passing attack should be able to light it up. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in the second half of the season against teams averaging or more 375 ypg and the Bears fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (160) Chicago Bears
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday night at Seattle. It is not easy for any team to win there, let alone compete, so we cannot take that loss too much into consideration. Plus New Orleans has always taken a step down when going on the road but now the Saints are back home, coming off a loss and first place in the NFC South on the line. This is where this team shines. New Orleans is 6-0 at home and has dominated for the most part, winning those games by an average of 17.4 ppg. Granted, this will be one of the toughest test but knowing they have to go to Carolina in two weeks, they will take this game as a must win. Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL as it has won eight straight games and possibly even more impressive for our concerns, it covered seven of those. The linesmakers seemed to have finally caught up though as the Panthers are getting a short number in New Orleans with a lot of that based on the recent performance as well as the Saints debacle in Seattle. Four of Carolina's wins during the streak have come on the road but only one of those was a quality win, which came at San Francisco. The atmosphere will be too much for them here in primetime. The Saints are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites including 12-2 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or less. Also, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a road loss including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Carolina has owned this series when playing on the road, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to New Orleans but that streak, along with the current winning streak, comes to a crashing halt Sunday night. 10* (142) New Orleans Saints
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12-08-13 | Tennessee Titans +13 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 28-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
While it is hard to put a team as good as Denver in a letdown situation, this is certainly as close as it gets as the Broncos are coming off three huge games, two against the Chiefs and one against the Patriots, so now is the time to take a breath. On top of that, Denver has a Thursday night divisional game up next against the Chargers. Denver has been close to unstoppable at home but this could be the biggest test for the Broncos yet and it isn't only because of the opposition. The weather forecast looks pretty dismal as temperatures probably won't get out of the teens and we all know how Peyton Manning struggles in the cold. And if you didn't know, he does. Denver is a game clear of Kansas City in the AFC but it pretty much amounts to a three-game lead based on the season sweep so for the Chiefs to overtake the Broncos, it will take a minor miracle. Tennessee is coming off a loss against the Colts which was its third in four games but the playoffs are not out of the question as the Titans are just a game behind Miami and Baltimore for the second Wild Card spot. The good news is that this is the toughest remaining test of the season so a win here could feasibly mean winning out which would likely be good enough for a possible playoff berth. So we know they will be playing hard and we are more concerned about staying within this generous number. Tennessee falls into a great contrarian situation as well as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 79-39 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (149) Tennessee Titans
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12-08-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Pittsburgh's playoff hopes took a big hit last week after it lost on Thanksgiving night at Baltimore although it was a valiant comeback effort. The Steelers divisional hopes are all but shot but they are still fighting for the playoffs and a win here would be a huge step. They trail the Dolphins and Ravens by one game for the second Wild Card spot so a win here would put it a game back of Baltimore and even though it would be tied with Miami, the tiebreaker is theirs due to the head-to-head win. The road has been tough for the Steelers as they are 2-5 but they have won three straight games at home while covering all of those as well. Pittsburgh has covered four straight overall and while that is a streak I tend to go against, the situation is a good one and we are actually getting line value in my opinion. Miami is coming off a blowout win against the reeling Jets but this team has been very inconsistent. The Dolphins opened the season 3-0 but they have gone 3-6 since then and have not won consecutive games since September. Of their 12 games, they have been outgained eight times and while they are 3-3 on the road, they are 1-3 in their last four road games. The Steelers fall into a phenomenal league-wide situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Steelers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games while Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. 10* (146) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-08-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
The run that the Redskins had last season will not be replicated and they will be missing pout on the playoffs after coming into the season as one of the favorites to win the NFC East. They have dropped four straight games to fall to 3-9 but I like them in this particular spot as teams that are playing their third straight home game and failed to win and cover the first two tend to do a great job in getting it done in the third game. The worst part about the four-game losing streak is that Washington has won the yardage battle in three of those games as it has been miscues that have cost them. Now they have the chance to play spoiler and even though the playoffs may now be a pipedream, they have not tossed in the towel. Kansas City is coming off its second loss to Denver in three weeks and its third loss overall. I felt we were getting value on the Chiefs last week but after jumping ahead 21-7, they fell apart when it mattered the most. After three straight divisional games and with the fifth seed in the AFC Playoffs all but locked up, I see a huge letdown this week. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and while Andy Reid is 3-0 so far this season against his former divisional foes, I do not see it happening again here. The Chiefs are 9-3 but are actually getting outgained on the season by 29 ypg while Washington, despite being 3-9, is actually outgaining its opponents by 12.1 ypg. So we have two teams with skewed records and the better team statistically is getting points at home. Here we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Washington Redskins
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Both Houston and Jacksonville were involved in very high scoring games this past Sunday as the Texans and Patriots put up 65 points while the Jaguars and Browns put up 60 points. I feel that those results coupled with both teams riding a 4-1 over run is giving us a lot of value on the under. The lone under in that stretch for both teams was when they faced each other two weeks ago and scored a mere 19 points. This series has been low scoring for the most part as four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total and I am expecting that to continue here once again. Despite being 2-10, Houston still has the third ranked defense in the NFL as turnovers have been absolutely killing them. Jacksonville is deal last in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense and we can consider last week's outburst against the Browns an aberration. On the other side, the Houston offense is a mess and it has been horrible on the road all season. The Jaguars defense is nothing special but even they can slow down the Texans, similar to how they did in the first meeting two weeks ago. Plus many will be on the over simply because that is what is bet the most in these primetime games plus the over was a perfect 3-0 last Thursday. The under is 4-0 in Houston's last four road games against teams with a losing home record while the under is 11-3 in its last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game. Meanwhile the under is 4-1 in the Jaguars last five home games against teams with a losing road record while the under is 9-0 in their last nine home games against conference opponents. Expect to see more of the same here. 10* Under (101) Houston Texans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship as Seattle and New Orleans have the inside track of grabbing the two bye spots for the playoffs. The Seahawks are in better position as even a loss here keeps them two games ahead of the 49ers in the NFC West while New Orleans is just a half-game up on Carolina in the NFC South. That makes this a bigger game for New Orleans but that is not something we will be taking into consideration here. The Saints are a powerful team no doubt but they are a different team on the road as they have struggled for the most part in all five road games this season. The Seahawks meanwhile have one of, if not the best, home field advantages in all of football and we are getting a very solid number here in my opinion. This line has dropped since opening and the big reason is due to the Seattle secondary missing Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner but it will be fine as the Saints best pass catchers are not even receivers. The defense excels inside as the Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards per play on screen passes in the NFL the last two seasons. The Seahawks have won 13 straight games at home dating to last season and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games following a win while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a home win. Meanwhile, the Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. 10* (450) Seattle Seahawks
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We played against Kansas City last week and while the Chiefs put up a fight against the Chargers, the defense could not make the stops when needed. While Denver is obviously a lot better than San Diego, Kansas City goes from home favorite to home underdog and that is a spot I like to play because it is a big line swing in the span of just one week. The Broncos are coming off a devastating loss against the Patriots as they blew a 24-0 lead and eventually lost in overtime. That is a tough defeat to recover from. While I have been anti-Chiefs most of the season, I think they are getting a lot of value here and one of the big reasons is that they are getting close to the same amount of points at home than they did on the road just two weeks ago. Here we play on home underdogs or pick after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 92-48 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (428) Kansas City Chiefs
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We won with both of those teams last week as the 49ers easily got past the Redskins on Monday night while the Rams blew out the Bears last Sunday. San Francisco snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory and served as a wakeup call. The 49ers now head back home to bounce back from their last home game, a loss against Carolina three weeks ago. This late in the season, San Francisco has to continue to keep winning to keep pace with the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Rams have been inconsistent this season but they are riding a two-game winning streaks with both victories being blowouts. Or were they? The scoreboard shows 30 and 21 points victories but St. Louis was outgained both times as it took advantage of turnovers and special teams edges. I do not expect those good fortunes to continue for a third straight game. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 15 or fewer points in their previous game and I expect that defensive prowess to continue again. 10* (442) San Francisco 49ers
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12-01-13 | Chicago Bears +1 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. After playing against the Bears last week, we will be backing them here this week. They were in a very tough spot last week coming off an overtime win at home over Baltimore the previous week and facing a Rams team coming off their bye week. While it is pretty early to call games must wins, this is about as close as you can get to a must win game at the three-quarter mark of the season. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games as well so it has at least played well following a loss. Minnesota played Green Bay to a tie last week on the road but it felt like a loss as the Vikings blew a big lead in regulation. It has been a tough season for Minnesota which is 2-8-1 and even though this is a divisional rivalry game, I cannot see this team putting forth another strong effort in consecutive weeks as we have yet to see it this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a cover and even though we are not getting a number of points, I don't think we will even need them as a big Chicago victory is what I see taking place. 10* (433) Chicago Bears
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
A few weeks ago, this much anticipated game was starting to look like it was going to be a dud but now there is a lot on the line. Because of the severe dropoff between the AFC elite and second tier teams, the 5-6 record both teams possess have them right in the Wild Card hunt. Additionally, they are just game behind the Bengals in the AFC North. I however give Baltimore a significant edge here based on home field as not only is it at home, but it is the second straight home game while the Steelers are playing their second straight road game. After losing three straight games, the Ravens have won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming in overtime in Chicago. They are 4-1 at home this season and going back, the Ravens are 27-4 over their last 31 home games and while two of those have been within a span of just seven regular season games, they came against Denver and Green Bay with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers respectively behind center. After a 0-4 start, the Steelers have turned things around by going 5-2 over their last seven games including winning their last three games. Pittsburgh is just 2-4 away from home and while it defeated Baltimore in the first meeting this season, it has not swept the Ravens since 2008. The Ravens know they have to stack some wins in order to qualify for the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent since 1983. 10* (308) Baltimore Ravens
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
The Cowboys picked up a huge road win against the Giants on Sunday to maintain their tie with the Eagles in the NFC East. The last thing they want is to follow that up with a home loss on Thanksgiving and while they are clearly the better team in this matchup, the line is already taking that into effect. This is a rare occasion where Dallas had to play on the road prior to its Thanksgiving game but we saw a similar setup just two years ago when the Cowboys won a divisional game in Washington by a field goal and then came back home only to beat Miami by a point on Thanksgiving. This is one of the worst defenses they have put on the field in a while and that can keep Oakland hanging around within this big number. The Raiders lost a tough one at home against Tennessee to fall to 4-7 but because the 2nd Wild Card spot leaders are at 5-6, they are far from out of anything so this is a huge game for them as well. Expect a heavy dose of running as Dallas has allowed 169, 242 and 202 yards rushing in its last three games. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Oakland Raiders
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
A couple of struggling teams take the field tonight as San Francisco and Washington both look to end two-game slides. The 49ers were cruising along with five straight wins before losing to Carolina and New Orleans the last two weeks. The 49ers are beating the teams it needs to but is losing against the top teams as their four losses are against teams a combined 34-10 and the Redskins are not part of that group as they are 3-7 with a lot on the line tonight. Washington was in a similar situation last season when it was 3-7, won its final seven regular season games and made the playoffs. Whether or not a late push is in the cards again this season, the Redskins have confidence knowing this season is not over yet and that is a big deal. But they just are not playing well as two of their wins easily could have been losses and while the Monday night home underdog is always worth a look, it is just not the prudent play here. Here we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has been one of the top bounceback teams around, going 9-2 in their last 11 games following a defeat under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Also, San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 or more ypg. 10* (233) San Francisco 49ers
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Patriots on Monday night with the whole penalty flag fiasco but New England still would have had to have scored on one play so it was no guaranteed win anyway. I believe the loss actually helps us here as the Patriots are one angry bunch right now and will be out for some retribution. Sitting at 7-3, they are now just two games in front in the AFC East so they need to avoid consecutive losses which is something they have done in the past as New England is 31-5 in its 35 games following a loss under Bill Belichick since 2003. The Broncos are coming off a big win last week against Kansas City at home to take over first place in the NFC West with a rematch looming next week. The public absolutely loves this team, even more than the Patriots now, and I think they are a false favorite in this spot. While Denver plays in cold weather late in the season, Peyton Manning is not a fan of bad conditions and the weather forecast calls for horrible winter conditions and that no doubt favors the home team. While Tom Brady lost as an underdog last week, he is 7-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog. 10* (232) New England Patriots
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show |
The Colts had a huge come-from behind victory last week against the Texans on the road and now they hit the road once again, this time off to the west coast. At 7-3, Indianapolis has a three-game lead in the AFC South and it is looking in pretty good shape to take the division as no other team is stepping up at this point. This game means little. The Colts are 3-0 in the division and 5-2 in the conference and those are the records they need to be concerned with and not an out of conference game. They are the lowest ranked division team in the AFC and I think it is for very good reason. Arizona is 6-4 and playing well with three straight wins. Going back, the Cardinals are 6-3 since an opening week loss and those three defeats came against the Saints, 49ers and Seahawks, all of which are ranked within the top six. Arizona has been outgained only three time this season and sitting in a tie for the second Wild Card in the NFC, it needs to continue to take care of business at home. This is a much bigger game for the Cardinals. Oh an did I mention that current head coach Bruce Arians coached the Colts last season? He will have a game play ready to get the job done. 10* (28) Arizona Cardinals
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11-24-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -10 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -103 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
Everyone is down on the Texans right now as rightfully so. They are the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season as sitting at 2-8, their season is done. The question is have they quit? The simple answer is no. While they have lost eight out of ten games, they have outgained the opposition in eight out of ten games as well which shows they are performing well everywhere except for the scoreboard. Now, the scoreboard is the biggest factor obviously but cut down on turnovers and things will be different and that is what I expect here as Jacksonville has only 12 takeaways the entire season. The Jaguars have been playing well since returning from England by going 1-1 but that is an illusion. They have been outgained by 148 and 142 yards in those two games and on the season, they have won the yardage battle only once and that came by 12 yards in St. Louis. When looking at the combined total yardage differentials, the Jaguars are -113.6 ypg while Houston is +91.9 ypg and that is an enormous variance. The Texans need to take their frustrations out on someone and this looks to be the perfect spot with New England on deck. 10* (212) Houston Texans
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
It comes as no surprise that the public is betting the Saints hard despite being now favored by double-digits in some spots. New Orleans has won two straight games since losing in New York to the Jets and has a one game lead in the NFC South. Coming into the season, the obvious choice would have been Atlanta that was a game back but it has been a disaster of a season, thus the big number the Falcons are getting tonight. They have dropped four straight games while not covering any of those but three of those were on the road where they are 0-5 on the season. A 2-3 record at home is nothing to be proud of and while many believe Atlanta has given up, tonight is its Super Bowl as playing spoiler against hated New Orleans is the goal. With the playoffs no longer a possibility, playing the Falcons can only be done in certain situations and this is one of those as the Georgia Dome will be rocking. The Saints are coming off that emotional home win over the 49ers and now travel on a short week with a game at Seattle next Monday night so the situation is just as bad on their side. The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 75-39 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Atlanta Falcons
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Panthers pulled off a stunner last week when they went into San Francisco and defeated the 49ers which had won five in a row but are now clearly struggling. Carolina is now 6-3 and trails the Saints by a game and a half in the NFC South after winning and covering five straight games. With the exception of San Francisco, the wins have come against teams that are not going to make the playoffs and overall, the Panthers have played the 22nd ranked schedule in the NFL and this is where they get tripped up. The Patriots have won two straight games and this is just the second time they have been underdogs this season. With Tom Brady looking to be finally on track and as an underdog coming off a bye week, this is a great spot for New England to move in front in the AFC East by three games. He was 23-of-33 for 432 yards and four touchdowns against the Steelers and when starting, he is 17-7 ATS in the role of underdog. Additionally, the Patriots are 8-1 when he starts coming off a bye week while going 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games. 10* (429) New England Patriots
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
I bet against Denver twice in their last five games and we cashed in those games against Dallas and Indianapolis. I have yet to back the Broncos as even though they have been covering at a good clip, they have been overinflated. We will not be backing them in what I feel is a great price against a very overrated Kansas City team. Denver would essentially take over first place with a win and it knows that it heads to Kansas City in two weeks for a rematch. The Chiefs come in off their bye week which can be considered good or bad. They got to rest and get a little healthier which is a good thing but when you are riding a nine-game winning streak, the last thing you want to do is take a week off an kill all of that momentum but that is precisely what happened to Kansas City. The defense has led the way but there is no chance of stopping this Broncos defense at home after coming off its lowest offensive output of the season against the Chargers. Kansas City is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg while the Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games against teams allowing 14 or fewer ppg. 10* (422) Denver Broncos
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
The 49ers burned us last week as they ended up losing at home 10-9 after jumping ahead of Carolina 9-0. Now they head to New Orleans where the Saints have looked unbeatable in what can be considered a must win game to avoid falling behind Seattle by three games in the NFC West. San Francisco had its five game winning streak snapped by the Panthers but they have been very solid coming off a loss, going 9-1 in their last 109 games following a defeat including a 3-0 record on the road and winning by a combined score of 82-19. That basically says a lot about head coach Jim Harbaugh. WE all know the Saints incredible spread records at home but this is a team than can give them big trouble as the 49ers possess a defense that can slow them down and on offense, it has a running game that can keep the Saints off the field. While the New Orleans defense is supposedly improved, they are still allowing 5.0 ypc which is dead last in the NFL. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or higher so they know what it takes beating the elite. 10* (425) San Francisco 49ers
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 44 m | Show |
Buffalo lost for the third straight game last week as the Steelers shut the offense down once again. The Bills were in a very tough spot though as they went to New Orleans where few teams come out win a win and quarterback Thad Lewis got banged up. He missed the next week so Jeff Tuel got the start but then at Pittsburgh, it was E.J. Manual making the start after being off for six weeks. Three different quarterback s in three weeks does no good for any team but with Manual under center again this week, I think we see a drastic improvement from the offense. The Jets were fresh off a home upset of New Orleans and then their bye week came which I've stated before, can be good or can be bad. I don't think it matters much here but the Jets taking to the road does as they are just 1-3 on the highway and even in the game they won they were outgained. As absurd as it may sound, a Buffalo win puts it just a game and a half back in the Wild Card race and at this points, a .500 record could bring home that second Wild Card spot. The Bills still have plenty to play for as they are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a road loss. 10* (406) Buffalo Bills
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11-17-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. We are playing on the Cardinals/Jaguars Under. We played on the Jaguars under last week and it was doomed from the start after Jacksonville scored so early. Coming off their highest scoring output of the season, and two straight overs, I am expecting an offensive letdown this week. Jacksonville has stayed under the total in all three of its true home games this season. Arizona had a string of four straight unders but has gone over in three of its last four games however it has played some strong offenses. Additionally, it own offense has been more consistent in scoring but that has not been the case on the road where the Cardinals have scored a grand total of 40 points in their last three road games. After three straight home games, look for more of that. 10* Under (419) Arizona Cardinals/(420) Jacksonville Jaguars
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show |
This is going to be a very popular play public wise and while laying road chalk in the NFL is a rare occurrence on this end, this is a great spot for it to come through here. The Colts were absolutely embarrassed at home this past Sunday as they got waxed by the Rams 38-8. Indianapolis lost the turnover battle 5-1 while allowing a long punt return for a touchdown and it is near impossible to compete when that takes place. The Colts actually outgained St. Louis by 34 total yards but that is meaningless to them when they are on the short end of the scoreboard but it is very important to us. That snapped a string of four games where Indianapolis was outgained yet it was able to go 3-1 in those games so it shows being on the right side of the unpredictable intangibles is so important. The Titans are coming off a loss against previously winless Jacksonville so they are feeling pretty down and out as well. Tennessee also lost Jake Locker for the season and while I do feel Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid backup, that is exactly what he is, a backup. The Colts have a two-game lead in the AFC South and this is where the good teams step up as a win here doesn't lock anything up but it gives them a solid cushion. Two situation favor the Colts as we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record while Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive losses. 10* (309) Indianapolis Colts
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 41 | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Both Miami and Tampa Bay are coming off overtime games with the Dolphins winning at home against Cincinnati on Halloween while Tampa Bay lost in Seattle to fall to 0-8 on the season. The Dolphins are the big public consensus here which could make the Buccaneers a strong contrarian play however I feel there is much better value on the total. We won with the under last Monday which made it four straight unders on Monday night and while those past outcomes have nothing to do with this matchup, it does add to the value on the under as the public will once again be chasing the over. Tampa Bay opened the season with four straight unders but it has gone over in each of its last four games as the defense has been the real letdown, allowing an average of 30 ppg after giving up just 17.5 ppg in its first four games. The Buccaneers have played some tough offenses along the way with three ranked in the top have of the league. The Dolphins offense is ranked just 29th overall and while they have been consistent, there have been some fortunate turns along the way. The Miami defense is ranked just 22nd in the NFL but they are 14th in scoring defense which shows a bend don't break philosophy and facing the Buccaneers offense that is ranked second to last in total offense and scoring offense should give them a big advantage tonight. Tampa Bay has gotten into the 20's only three times and two of those were against two of the worst defenses in the NFL while last week against Seattle can be considered a fluke. Miami is 5-2-1 to the over this season which again is helping with the value here as the Dolphins are seeing a total that is nearly the same as against the Bengals last week and they are a top ten offense. Both teams have awesome situations on their sides as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving teams that are being outgained by 40 to 100 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 53-21 (71.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 8-0 to the under against defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl over the last two seasons. 10* Under (227) Miami Dolphins/(228) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 96 h 59 m | Show |
Houston has now lost six straight games and even worse, lost its head coach at halftime last week against the Colts but it looks as though Gary Kubiak will be making a full recovery which is great news. The Texans were ahead 21-3 at halftime but they were done after that as they lost focus and the playcalling was clearly not the same. Even though Kubiak will not be around this week, things will at least be better in that they will have had a full week to prepare with Wade Phillips, the Texans defensive coordinator, assuming the role of interim head coach. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will call the plays. Houston is just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot so the season is far from lost but this has turned into a must win and one that they will want to win for coach Kubiak. The Texans have outgained seven of eight opponents this season including outgaining the Colts last week by 169 yards and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 120.4 ypg which is extremely solid for a team sitting at 2-6. even more impressive is the fact they have played the second toughest schedule in the NFL. Arizona is coming off its bye week following a home win against Atlanta two weeks ago. Sitting at 4-4, the Cardinals are only one game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC so they are definitely in the thick of things. But they have been very inconsistent as they have outgained five of eight opponents by a combined 166 total yards however in the three games they were outgained, it was by a total of 389 total yards. The defense has played well as they are ranked 13th overall and 11th in scoring but the offense has been an issue as Arizona is ranked 29th overall and 24th in scoring. Houston quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for 621 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts since replacing Matt Schaub and he will need to remain efficient to try and keep the Cardinals defense off balanced. The Texans fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (221) Houston Texans
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers -6 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
While I still feel that Kansas City is the biggest fraud in the NFL, Carolina is not far behind. The Panthers have won and covered four straight games after a 1-3 start to move to 5-3 on the season and are now just a game behind the Saints in the NFC South. It has been a solid run but the four wins during the streak have come against teams with no more than three wins and a combined record of 6-27. Even two of their losses came against current non-winning teams and the only team ranked in the top 16 they have played was Seattle at the start of the season. Carolina played the Seahawks tough but that was many weeks ago and all of this translates into the easiest schedule played in the NFL. The defense has been exceptional as the Panthers are ranked third overall and second in scoring but what happens now when they face an offense that has exploded for an average of 34.8 ppg over their last five games? They could be in for some trouble. While Carolina has played a weak schedule, the 49ers have not exactly played the toughest schedule either as theirs is ranked 25th in the NFL. There is a big difference however as San Francisco has proven that it can beat the elite teams in the NFL by taking a look at last season. You cannot call the 49ers record skewed because of the schedule as they would likely be winning anyway. San Francisco has won and covered five in a row, albeit against weak opposition, and it has been hearing the jeers about not beating any solid teams so this cane be their chance, at least what the public thinks as far as Carolina being a solid team. I think the biggest positive for the 49ers however is the fact that they are coming off a bye week following their trip to London. San Francisco is rested, fresh off a much-needed bye week and has begun to reload the roster with top talents on both sides of the ball. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after one or more consecutive wins. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. This is the perfect opportunity for the 49ers to show they still are the elite team in the NFC. 10* (220) San Francisco 49ers
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -1 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
The loss of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers cannot be overstated but reading over some of the aftereffects you would think the Packers are done and might as well pack it in. It was extremely tough last week with Seneca Wallace coming into the game in emergency duty as he was not prepared in the least bit and it showed. The difference this week is that Wallace will have had a full week of practice and preparation so things will be a lot better for the offense this time around. We are getting an exceptional line as it has dropped nine points since it opened Sunday night and while many will argue that Aaron Rodgers is worth nine points, I'm not one to buy into that as there are 21 other starters out there along with his replacement and this is the time when these players typically step up after one of their top teammates goes down. Defensively, the Packers did receive some good news this week that Clay Matthews returned to practice after missing the past three games with a broken thumb. The defense is going to have to step up and play very well against a potent offensive team. Everyone saw what the Eagles and Nick Foles did last week in Oakland but don't expect a repeat of that here. Let's not forget that Philadelphia scored a total of 10 points in their previous two games combined so we cannot assume this offense has suddenly found its groove once again. The Eagles are still a game behind Dallas for first place in the NFC East so they are in fine shape but one thing that is not fine is their defense. They are dead last in the NFL in yards allowed and despite giving up just 20 points to the Raiders last week, they allowed 560 yards so if Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin can have success, it is safe to say Seneca Wallace can as well. Philadelphia has allowed 368 total yards or more in six of nine games and they have to worry about the Packers resurgent running game as rookie running back Eddie Lacy leads the league in rushing over the last five weeks. While many are counting the Packers down and out, we are far from that group. We play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a double digit road win, after the first month of the season. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile the Eagles are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams allowing seven or more passing ypa while going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (206) Green Bay Packers
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