**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *15-5 DHD RUN* Cleveland lost on Sunday against a short-handed Dallas team which certainly came as a surprise to many as the Mavericks were without Dirk Nowitzki. Now the Cavaliers must regroup and do it quickly against the Suns and I think they have no problem doing so. Catching Cleveland as an underdog is rare as it has gotten points only twice this season at Miami and at Orlando and it won both of those games outright. The loss on Sunday snapped a five-game winning streak for the Cavaliers and it was a rare setback against a good team. This season, the Cavaliers have been playing up and down to the competition as they are 4-8 ATS against teams with a losing record but 8-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. This includes a win against Phoenix in the first meeting this season which was the third straight in this series. The Suns are undefeated at home at 10-0 and bring in a 19-game home winning streak to the table but I am not overly impressed. They have defeated Orlando and San Antonio on their home floor but other than that, there have been no other quality wins. On the season, Phoenix has struggled against the top teams in the NBA as it is 15-2 against teams ranked outside the top ten but just 3-7 against teams ranked in the top ten. The Suns are 7-3 ATS at home but this includes a 5-0 ATS mark against teams with a losing record. Facing the solid Suns offense is not an issue for the Cavaliers as they held them to 40 percent shooting in the first meeting and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams that are shooting 48 percent or better from the floor. Also, Cleveland is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games following a loss and it will extend that tonight as it bounces back from Sunday

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **24-9 RUN** I won with New Orleans on Friday which was a big revenge game for the Hornets as they took care of the Nuggets. They now hit the road where they are just 2-10 on the season with the two wins coming against the Timberwolves and Clippers. They have been playing much better of late after a slow start to the season but I still do not trust this team on the road especially with catching a very small number. Toronto is coming off a big win over the Nets on Friday and while beating New Jersey is no big deal, it snapped a two-game road skid and provided some momentum heading into this game. The Raptors are 8-5 at home but the schedule has not been easy with two losses against Orlando, a loss against Phoenix and a loss against the Hawks all of which are part of the elite class of the league right now. They have played the third toughest schedule in the NBA and are 2-11 against the top 10 in the league. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 or more ppg and coming off a win by 15 or more points going up against a team averaging between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Toronto Raptors

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *15-4 DHD RUN* This one sets up very well for Oklahoma City. Both teams come in off Friday wins but it will be Houston that will be the less focused team tonight. The Rockets won in Dallas last night in overtime and that was a big game for them as they were in big-time revenge mode, trying to avenge a 31-point loss against the Mavericks earlier in the year at home. Mission accomplished. Even though they are heading home now, this is not the time to back this team. Houston is 6-4 at home which is certainly nothing special and it is the worst record of the current top eight teams in the Western Conference. The Rockets have already won both meetings this season against the Thunder and they have actually won 12 straight in this series so we know what that means. It is now revenge time for Oklahoma City which hasn

**10** NBA #1 REVENGE REPORT **22-8 RUN** This is a huge game for New Orleans and everything falls into place for the Hornets on Friday. New Orleans is playing its first game against Denver this season and the last time it saw the Nuggets was in last year

**9** NBA ESPN STAR ATTRACTION **73% RUN** It may come as a surprise but this is the first game on ESPN tonight. While the matchup is far from glamorous, it does give us a big opportunity for a winner tonight. I played against the Knicks last night and they folded in the fourth quarter against the Bulls to cement their second straight loss. Both of those defeats came on the road and now New York is back at MSG and this is a big game for this team. The Knicks do have their own television network but playing on a national level does not come often and the home team steps it up in what is a solid revenge situation as well. The Clippers won both meetings last season but both of those games came in overtime and sometimes those are the worst losses, even worse than a big blowout. That makes it four straight losses for the Knicks in this series and quite honestly, losing four straight to the Clippers is something no team should be proud of. Los Angeles is in the early end of a six-game roadtrip and it started the trek with a blowout win at Minnesota on Wednesday night. That was the second straight road win for the Clippers but the first one was way back on November 27th as there was a block of six home games in the middle. This is just the third time all season that the Clippers have played two straight road games and only the second time they have done so following a win. The first time resulted in a loss at New Orleans and a similar result is likely here. On the season, Los Angeles is 4-5 on the road and just two games under .500 overall but it has played the easiest schedule in the NBA so being under the break-even point is not even close to impressive. The Knicks are a solid 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games despite the recent two setbacks and this includes a 4-1 ATS mark at home. This means that 10 of those 15 games have come on the road so the time at home has been minimal but includes wins over Phoenix and Portland which has upped the Knicks record to 7-2 ATS against the Western Conference. New York is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog while the Clippers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games coming off a win as an underdog. The Knick snap that skid against the Clippers tonight. 9* New York Knicks

**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION **70% RUN** Phoenix is a perfect 9-0 at home this season but it is a different team on the road as is the case with most teams in the NBA. The Suns have been tested on the road this season but the problem is that they have only passed half of those tests. They are 8-8 on the road and this includes five straight losses away from home so the problem is even more troublesome. Looking at those road games, wins have come against the Clippers, Wizards, Sixers, Timberwolves and Raptors, which is far from a solid resume. Granted, Phoenix did defeat Boston but the majority of games against the top teams in the league have resulted in losses. These include the Magic, Lakers (twice), Cavaliers, Mavericks and Nuggets. While many will not classify Portland in this

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **19-8 RUN** We will go back to the Bulls tonight who brought a ticket home against the Lakers last time out although it was certainly not by a big margin. Chicago was in that game the entire time until the final quarter when the Lakers pulled away but now it takes a step down in competition. The Bulls have faced Boston and Los Angeles over the last two games and that will not result in a lot of success for many teams. Overall, the Bulls have played the toughest schedule in the NBA. 16 of their 23 games have come against teams ranked in the top half of the league where they have gone 4-12 meaning they are a more respectable 4-3 against teams outside the top 16. The Knicks definitely fit into that category. New York is 8-16 on the season including a 4-8 record on the road and it had a solid run going before its last game. The Knicks had won four straight games before a loss at Charlotte last time out and that is a problem as losses have come in bunches this season. The Knicks are 4-5 this season against the Western Conference which is a rather big surprise but it is just 4-11 against the Eastern Conference. Chicago has been a wallet burner for mot of this season compiling a 6-15-2 ATS mark on the year. You will see that the Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their six games as a favorite but all of those losses were as overprices favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points and this small number actually fits into a lot of solid success and lack thereof on the other side. Chicago is 3-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3 while the Knicks are 5-9 ATS when the line is between +5 and -5. The problem this season for Chicago is the offense as it is shooting only 42.3 percent on the season which is second to worst in the NBA, ahead of only the Nets. The good news is there will not be much resistance tonight as the Knicks are allowing opponents to shoot 48.3 percent on the season which is third worst in the league so something will have to give and it looks like the Bulls get the edge there. Chicago bounces back at home and picks up the easy win. 9* Chicago Bulls

**10** NBA #1 DECEMBER TOTAL **100% RUN** We are getting some excellent value on this number and for a variety of different reasons. First and foremost, we are going against history here as over the last two seasons, the

**8** NBA GAME OF THE WEEK **17-7 RUN** I will be fading the Lakers once again. They were fortunate to come away with a relatively easy win last night thanks to a big fourth quarter but they still failed to get the cover against the Bulls. This is a different team on the road and one that still have not seen the road much this season. The Lakers have the second best record in the NBA but their schedule has had a lot to do with that. They are the defending World Champions so we know how good they are but playing 29th ranked schedule in the league has certainly not hurt the cause. 17 of their first 21 games came at home which is insane and they have gotten a great early break by the NBA. The six road games have not been particularly good either as they are 4-2 with one win coming against Golden St. and two others coming in overtime at Oklahoma City and Houston. Los Angeles is just +2.0 ppg in its six road games. This is just the second time this season that the Lakers have had to play back-to-back games on the road. The first time resulted in an overtime win by just a point over Houston in that second game. Milwaukee has been a pleasant surprise this season. It has won two straight games after going through a 1-8 slump but that run included some tight losses as well as six of those eight losses coming on the road. The Bucks are 9-3 at home this season with the three losses coming against Cleveland, Orlando and Dallas and those latter two were both by just two points. They welcomed Michael Redd back last game and he definitely showed some rust but he will be much better tonight. The play of rookie Brandon Jennings has been outstanding. The Bucks have had three full days off in between games and that can play a big role here in preparation for playing a team such as Los Angeles. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing with no rest while the underdog is on a solid 10-1-1 run in this series. Milwaukee is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six meetings. 8* Milwaukee Bucks

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *14-4 DHD RUN* One look at the 1-10 road record of Charlotte is going to sway a lot of people from taking the Bobcats here but that should not be taken into consideration. I will agree that the record is not good and the fact that one of those losses came against New Jersey is even worse but for the most part, those road games have been brutal. The list includes Cleveland, Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Milwaukee, San Antonio and Dallas all of which are at least 8-4 on their home floors. Overall charlotte has been playing much better as after a 3-9 start, it is 7-4 over its last 11 games and the start of this recent run began with an easy home win over Indiana. The Pacers will be out for some revenge but most importantly they will be just out to win and it won

**7** NBA POWER PLAY SITUATION *77% ANGLE* Memphis is coming off a couple very good games against Miami and Boston, winning the former on the road by a wide margin and losing to the latter by just five points at home. The Grizzlies are 10-14 on the season which is just a one-game improvement through 24 games last season but it is their recent success that has us really liking this team now. After starting the season 1-8, Memphis has won nine of its last 15 including two big home win against Cleveland and Dallas at home as well as that Miami game on the road as mentioned. The Allen Iverson experiment was a big failure but that has not done anything to the mentality of this team and there is a great mixture of youth and experience that can lead this team to even bigger things. Atlanta is off to a solid start again this year as it has won four straight games following a rough 2-4 straight prior to that. I don

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *13-4 DHD RUN* Less than a month ago, the Lakers were favored by 9.5 points over Chicago at home. Now they are favored by 9.5 points on the road. Granted the results of the two since then have been on opposite ends as Los Angeles is 9-1 while Chicago is 2-9 but the schedules have played a big role in that. The Lakers have the second best record in the NBA but their schedule has had a lot to do with that. They are the defending World Champions so we know how good they are but playing 29th ranked schedule in the league has certainly not hurt the cause. 17 of their first 21 games came at home which is insane and they have gotten a great early break by the NBA. The five road games have not been particularly good either as they are 3-2 with one win coming against Golden St. with the other two coming in overtime at Oklahoma City and Houston. Los Angeles is just +0.6 ppg in its five road games. They Bulls have been playing a tougher slate with the majority of their games coming on the road. They are 2-10 in 12 games away from Chicago but a much more respectable 6-4 at home. The home loss against New Jersey is a bad one for sure but the fact that Chicago lost by 26 points last time out against the Celtics actually helps us here as it does add to that line value and will most certainly get the team more focused this time around to avoid another embarrassing home loss like that one. The Bulls had a pathetic shooting game against Boston and that plays into a situation explained in a little bit. The Kobe Bryant situation is sill a little fuzzy. He broke his finger against Minnesota and came back with a 7-24 effort against Utah but the flu was blamed for that one. I believe the finger is the issue and it will be for a while. Bryant didn't practice Monday before the team left for Chicago and could be hampered by that broken right index finger. The situation referred to earlier says to play against teams that are shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent after a game where it shot 35 percent or worse from the floor. This situation is 149-92 ATS (61.8 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being just -2.1 ppg. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite while the Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog. 9* Chicago Bulls

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *13-3 DHD RUN* The Spurs are favored here, well simply because it is the Spurs. San Antonio has no business being a road chalk with its 11-9 record that includes a 1-5 mark on the road. This situation is very similar to the Lakers situation from last night in that San Antonio has benefitted from a very favorable early season schedule as 14 of the first 20 games came at home which is the second biggest home/road disparity in the league behind Los Angeles. Despite this, and the schedule being ranked 24th in the league in strength, the Spurs are not off to a great start but the public still pounds them and that is a main cause for this road line to be as high as it is. As of early Sunday, 78 percent of action has come San Antonio

**10** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *12-3 DHD RUN* The Lakers have the best record in the NBA but their schedule has had a lot to do with that. They are the defending World Champions so we know how good they are but playing 29th ranked schedule in the league has certainly not hurt the cause. 17 of their first 21 games have been at home which is insane and they have gotten a great early break by the NBA. The four road games have not been particularly good either as they are 3-1 but one win came against Golden St. while the other two came in overtime at Oklahoma City and Houston. Los Angeles was hammed in Denver by 26 points in the only real road test. Now it heads out on the road for the first time since November 28th and in a back-to-back situation no less. The Lakers are coming off another easy home win but it came with a price Kobe Bryant broke a finger. He was able to play through it and won

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **74% NBA RUN** Orlando is coming off a loss last night in Utah and must turn around and try to rebound tonight in Phoenix. I say they do it no problem. The Magic lost four games prior to last night and they rebounded with four wins right after that and none of those games were even close. Those four wins came by an average of 16.8 ppg and two of those came on the second leg of a back-to-back set. The first followed a loss in Detroit and coincidentally, the victim happened to be Phoenix in a 22-point beatdown. The most recent came in Atlanta by 17 points after losing to Miami the previous night. Those two wins show that the follow up wins have come against some good competition. Phoenix has been mired in a slump that it cannot get out of. The Suns started the season 8-1 in their first nine games, 10-2 in their first 12 games and 14-3 in their first 17 games but they have gone just 1-4 over their last five games. Granted all four of those losses have come on the road and Phoenix is home here where it is a perfect 7-0 on the season, However, those seven wins are unimpressive in my eye as they have come against teams a combined 58-94 (.382 winning percentage) and none have come against a team with a winning record. None. Phoenix is 10-1 against teams ranked outside the top 16 in the league but just 2-5 against top ten teams. We know where Orlando falls. The home team has won the last four meetings in this series but there is a difference. Orlando has won the two home games by 22 and 12 while the Suns won their games at home by only one and four points and that alone tells us there is a big difference. Orlando is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as a road underdog of three points or less. Also, we play on underdogs with a .750 or better win percentage that have won six or seven of their last eight games and now playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* Orlando Magic

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *14-5 NBA RUN* Cleveland can

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *14-5 RUN* The linesmakers have caught up to Oklahoma City but I think that have caught up a little too much and are starting to make some over adjustments. The Thunder have been a pleasant surprise this season with an 11-9 record after winning just 23 games all of last season. They were huge against the spread last year however and are hitting 60 percent against the number this season but this line tells us a lot. The last meeting against Memphis at home had the Grizzlies -7 and now it is a five-point swing which is simply too much. Oklahoma City has played five straight home games and this is its first trip since November 24th and that is a big situational go against. While the Oklahoma City improvement has been well documented, the Memphis turnaround isn

**10** NBA #1 TNT DECEMBER PLAY *13-5 RUN* Washington is not getting a lot of respect here and maybe that is warranted. The Wizards were a popular preseason pick this year to have a big turnaround and be the sleeper team in the NBA Southeast. Instead, they are in last place, looking up at the Magic who have a nine-game lead. Inconsistencies have been the issue all season but the play has gotten better even though it has not resulted in a lot of wins. Washington is 4-3 over its last seven games but two of those losses have come by a total of six points including one in overtime. The Wizards 4-5 home record is not going to intimidate many teams but three of those losses have been by four points or fewer and the résumé already includes a win over Cleveland. The play has go better which has coincided with the return of Antawn Jamison. It took a couple games for the team to get its chemistry back and he is averaging 20.1 ppg despite having three straight games of 15 points or fewer. I expect a big game tonight as well as one from Gilbert Arenas who is coning off a horrible game against the Pistons where he scored just eight points after early game foul trouble. Boston is rolling along with eight straight wins and it is a very solid 9-1 on the road this year. The road schedule has been very unimpressive however. The Celtics won opening night in Cleveland but the next four road wins came against teams that are currently a combined 23-84. That has been the story this season as Boston has played a schedule ranked 27th in the NBA which compares to a schedule ranked 12th for the Wizards. This takes nothing away from Boston as winning is tough in this league so what it is accomplishing is certainly solid. I just do not like them in this spot at all. Boston swept the season series a year ago but Washington was not close to full strength. The year before, the Wizards swept Boston and that was when they were at full strength. They are a team that gives the Celtics matchup problems and the fact that Washington has had three full days off before this game gives it a greater edge in preparation and rest. The Wizards are 1-10 ATS this season when playing with no rest or just one day off and a much more respectable 4-4 ATS with two or more days including 2-1 ATS with three days or more. Washington falls into a great contrarian spot as you play on underdogs that have not covered the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games going up against an opponent that has covered three of its last four games. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1996. 10* Washington Wizards

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *12-5 NBA RUN* The last time I ventured out on Minnesota was on Saturday and that resulted in an outright victory over Utah and this team is definitely turning a corner. After defeating Denver as 14.5-point underdogs on the road at the end of November, they have put together a five-game cover streak and this is significant since Minnesota went on a 1-10 ATS run prior to that. That included a 0-6 ATS mark at home but a loss to Memphis by a bucket on Wednesday ended that string as well and it has now covered two in a row at the Target Center. Timberwolves forward Kevin Love made his season debut against the Hornets seven weeks after he broke his left hand in a preseason game. He delivered an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double while playing half the game off the bench. His return is big as it adds more depth to the frontcourt and actually makes it a strength now. In three games he is averaging 15.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Last night Minnesota was stung with a bad shooting night as it shot 36 percent including 30 percent (3-15) from long range. Those nights are going to happen. New Orleans has no business laying wood on the road. The Hornets are 1-9 away from home this season and the lone victory came in Los Angeles against the Clippers and not the Lakers. In 20 games, the home team is 17-3 in New Orleans games this season so it is obviously that the host has had an edge all season. The linesmakers have no choice here but to make the Hornets a favorite and despite being 9-11, they are somehow still a very publicly backed team and that is certainly the case again tonight as the betting action is all over New Orleans early in the cycle. As a favorite of three points or more, the Hornets are 1-5 ATS on the season and this includes a cover loss just last week at home against Minnesota. The Hornets were favored by 9.5 points in that game and based on the venue switch and simple math, they should be favored by a point and a half at the most. The last meeting in Minnesota came last January and the Timberwolves were favored by a point in that game. Since then, Minnesota has remained pretty level while the Hornets have digressed considerably. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and this season they are 0-3 ATS against teams that have a winning percentage below .250. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. 9* Minnesota Timberwolves

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *11-5 NBA RUN* Cleveland is starting to heat up with four straight wins and four straight blowouts for that matter. The Cavaliers have won those games by 16, 17, 14 and 15 points so it is no surprise once again to see them in the role of a big favorite and with the public backing them once again. Going back further, Cleveland is 12-2 in its last 14 games but both of those losses came on the road and with spreads that were much smaller than what we have tonight. This is actually the most he Cavaliers have been favored by on the road in their last eight games away from home and personally, I do not think it is justified. They are coming off a road win against a division rival and have a game at Houston tomorrow night which makes this one tough spot for Cleveland. As for Memphis, it is on a two-game winning streak including a home win against Dallas by 16 points as six-point underdogs. That came on the heels of a 2-3 roadtrip which was far from horrible as the stretch was a difficult one. Since suffering through a seven-game losing streak, the Grizzlies are 7-4 over their last 11 games and they are obviously playing much better, mostly on the defensive side of things. After allowing 111.1 ppg through their first nine games, they have allowed only 100 ppg through their last 11 games. This includes just 93.6 ppg in five home games during that stretch and the defense which was emphasized to start the season is finally coming around. The Memphis big men have been solid this season. Zach Randolph is averaging just shy of a double-double with his 18.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg and Marc Gasol is averaging 14.6 ppg and 9.7 rpg. Rudy Gay is contributing 20.5 ppg. With youngsters O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley up top, this is turning into a very well rounded team that is playing with a lot of confidence. Cleveland has won seven straight meetings in this series including season sweeps the last three years but this is arguably the best Grizzlies team to take the floor over this span. 9* Memphis Grizzlies

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *10-5 NBA RUN* This is a real tough spot for Utah. The Jazz played last night and had a relatively easy win against Indiana thanks to a big first quarter. That was the sixth straight home game for Utah who has not played a game on the road since November 19th at San Antonio. That is a span of 15 straight days of staying at home and that is huge in the NBA so it is no wonder the Jazz went 5-1 in those games. Making matters even worse is the fact that Utah has San Antonio on deck at home on Monday so coming off that huge homestand and looking ahead to another big game means that Utah wants no part of playing lowly Minnesota. With New Jersey

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **9-2 NBA RUN** The Celtics are coming off a big win last night at San Antonio to make it six straight wins and while it is rolling along, this is a tough spot for the Celtics. This team is very solid once again but it is an old team plain and simple and playing on back-to-back nights is starting to be an issue as Boston is just 1-3 ATS in the second of back-to-back games this season including a 0-3 ATS when the second game is away from home. The recent run is the second longest current streak in the NBA but it hasn

**8** NBA GAME OF THE WEEK ***89% ANGLE*** Toronto is playing horrible right now as it is mired in a dreadful five-game losing streak but this is the time to buy as when a team is down, we get them at a good price as well as getting a likely solid effort. These two teams just played in Toronto two games back and Washington walked out with a four-point win as seven-point underdogs. Based on that line, just three nights ago, coming home for the rematch should make Washington a one-point favorite based on the line switch due to the venue change. Obviously, the linesmakers are not thinking that way and have upped the number giving us additional value here. During this losing streak, Toronto is playing the worst it has all season as it has been outshot by 8.7 percent from the floor while getting outscored by 20.4 ppg. Making matter worse, the Raptor are on a six-game losing skid away from home with the last five coming by an average of 22 ppg. Washington is playing better as it has won four of its last five games. It snuck one out on Wednesday, much to my dismay as it was unable to cover the spread by a point, to even its record at 4-4 at home. There are still problems on this team which we saw again the other night and it all comes down to team chemistry as there is still some issues going on with players not getting a lot of time together yet. Washington has been horrible in the role of favorite as it is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games when laying points and it is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games against teams with a losing road record. The road team has won the last five meetings in this series and covering all of those as well and it is revenge time for the Raptors who also fall into a solid situation. Play on road teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last five seasons. The public will no doubt be fading the Raptors especially coming off the 31-point loss against the Hawks but this is the time to ride. 8* Toronto Raptors

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **9-2 NBA RUN** Phoenix was throttled in New York last night as it was no doubt caught looking ahead to this game and that can only help us here. It will give us a highly motivated Suns team and one that want to bounce back quickly while also providing us with some solid line value. Phoenix has bounced back from its first three losses with wins the next time out and that includes a loss in Orlando followed by a win in Boston two nights later. The Suns were held to 99 points last night, the first time all season they have been held below the century mark. They shot a decent 45.5 percent but that is well below the season average and they managed only 77 shots which were below their average as well. Shooting 23.5 percent from long range (4-17) does not help nor does the 17 turnovers they committed. Clearly, they were not in the game mentally. Cleveland enters this game over a solid home win over Dallas which followed a loss at Charlotte prior to that. Cleveland shot 57.7 percent from the floor and that was with Shaquille O

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **9-2 RUN** I think last night

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **8-2 NBA RUN** Both Washington and Toronto come into this game following rough endings in the month of November. They are only separated by a half-game in the Eastern Conference and Toronto is getting a lot of credit on this spot for some reason. The Raptors have dropped three straight games and are 2-7 over their last nine games. To their credit, the schedule has been tough but the majority of these losses have not even been close. Five of those seven defeats were by 13 points or more including the last three. The defense has been atrocious as Toronto is allowing 109.3 ppg on 47.9 percent shooting, 30th and 26th respectively in the NBA. Washington has won two straight games prior to its last game against Charlotte that was a complete disaster. The Wizards tied a season low with 76 points as they shot just 39 percent from the floor including 25 percent from long range. Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison shot a combined 5-20 and scored only 12 points so we can expect big bounce backs from both tonight. The schedule has been difficult for Washington as well as it is ranked 10th in the league and 10 of the first 15 games have come against teams ranked in the top 16 and tonight

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **7-2 NBA RUN** This is the final game for the Bulls on their roadtrip and it has not been a good one. Chicago won the opener is Sacramento but it has dropped the last four games, none of which were even close. However, those games came against ranked second, 11th, 10th and 13th so the competition was definitely difficult. Overall, the Bulls have played the hardest schedule in the NBA so their 6-8 record at least has some merit. They take a step down in competition tonight and it comes against a team they have done well against in the past as they have won seven of the last eight meetings against Milwaukee including three straight. With this being the final game of the roadtrip, it could mean Chicago just wanting to get it done with and head home. However, the Bulls have fared well in this spot over the years as they are 3-1 ATS and straight up over the last four years in the last road game of this annual roadtrip so instead of quitting, they pick things up to end it. Milwaukee started the season surprisingly strong but it has had a rough time of late. The Bucks opened the year 8-3 but they have lost four straight and even though three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against Orlando, I can see this team falling fast. The injuries are piling up once against for Milwaukee and that has been a common trend over the last couple seasons as now Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are both on the shelf. Redd has already missed nine games because of a knee strain he sustained October 31st against Detroit. While the offense has been hurt, the defense has been playing worse as the Bucks have allowed at least 100 points in four straight and seven of 10 after giving up 87 points or fewer in four of their first five games and not allowing an opponent to hit the century mark. Milwaukee also has the fatigue factor going against it and that is also part of a great situation. This will be the Bucks seventh game in the last 11 days and that is a brutal stretch. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after four or more consecutive losses and having played eight or more games in 14 days. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. The Bulls end the trip on a high. 9* Chicago Bulls

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **7-1 NBA RUN** I was on Memphis in its last game on Friday and that resulted in an easy, yet surprising win for the Grizzlies. Because there is a day off in-between, I think we do not have to worry about a letdown factor at all. This is already the third meeting this season between Memphis and Los Angeles with the home team taking the first two games. The Grizzlies lost at the Staples Center by three points as a four-point underdog and it is surprising that this line dropped only a half-point from that last game. Memphis has won five of its last seven games and won the revenge game by 15 points. I like the way this team is coming together and we are still getting value as we have the ability to buy low and if it continues to play well, that won

**10** NBA GAME OF THE MONTH *7-0 NBA RUN* I successfully played against Portland last night as the Blazers were embarrassed at home against Memphis as they lost by 10 points and were down by 29 points at one time in a game they clearly were not ready for. I am switching gears tonight and backing Portland in an excellent situation where it should be able to come back and take this one outright. The Blazers are 5-3 on the road this season and even though this is the first road game in five games, it will not be an issue based on last night

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **6-0 ATS RUN** I feel this is a very good spot for Memphis despite the differential of the home and road records for these two teams. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their last game at Phoenix which dropped them to 1-7 away from home on the season. Prior to the Phoenix loss they had won four of their previous five games including a victory at Philadelphia in the only road game during that stretch so they have definitely been playing better of late after a very slow start to the season. They have dropped eight straight in this series including a home loss against the Blazers just over two weeks ago by 14 points. Portland is 7-2 at home this season including three straight wins during this homestand, all coming by double-digits. A fourth is what everyone is thinking here but this is not a good spot for the Blazers as they travel to play Utah tomorrow night so this is a definite lookahead spot. This is obviously a very contrarian play and it is backed up by a very contrarian situation. Play on underdogs that are allowing 48 percent shooting or worse on the season going up against an opponent that has gone two straight games of shooting 50 percent or better. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being just -4.4 ppg. 9* Memphis Grizzlies

**8** NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT ATS *BLOWOUT* This is a very tough scheduling situation for the Knicks. They are coming off a loss last night against the Lakers making this their second game in two nights and it actually gets worse. New York is also playing its fourth game in five nights and it has been nothing but travel over this stretch. The Knicks played in New Jersey, went to Boston, travelled to Los Angeles and now are in Sacramento. The two back-to-back spots have not been long travel situations but it is travel nonetheless. They lost by 10 points last night to Los Angeles but it was much worse than that as they were down by as much as 25 points but used a strong fourth quarter to make it look more respectable and that gives us some line value tonight. The Kings have been playing pretty decent this season especially at home. They are back from a three-game roadtrip where they lost all three games and they are currently on a four-game skid. The home team is 10-3 in Sacramento games this season and the Kings covered their lone game as a chalk this season, defeating Memphis at home by 11 points in overtime. Kevin Martin is still out but Tyreke Evans has picked up the slack as he has scored 20 or more points in the last seven games he has played. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last sis games following an ATS loss while New York is just 12-27 ATS as a road underdog of fewer than five points. Sacramento is 6-2 ATS this season when playing teams averaging 99 or more ppg while the Knicks are 0-2 ATS against teams averaging 103 pr more ppg. 8* Sacramento Kings

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **78% ANGLES** Houston has not won back-to-back games since Halloween and the day after Halloween. The Rockets are coming off a home win against Sacramento and it was rather unimpressive which can be said about the entire season thus far. Houston is 8-6 on the season including 4-2 at home but it has struggled for the most part against the top teams as it is 5-1 against teams outside the top ten but just 3-5 against teams within the top ten. Dallas is obviously part of that group and it comes in at 10-4 and angry after a home loss against Golden St. last night that saw the Warriors play only six players the entire game. The Mavericks are 5-2 on the road this season and have not lost consecutive games this year. They are 2-0 on the season against the NBA

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **71% ANGLE** Oklahoma City is already one of the most improved teams this season based on its play on the road. The Thunder are 4-4 this season away from home and that is already half of their road win total from all of last season. Oklahoma City did not win its fifth away game in 2008-09 until March 10th so the fact that we are still in the first month of the season is something special. Utah used to has a great home floor edge and while it is sitting at 4-2, it is nothing like it has been in past years. Losing to Houston and Sacramento is uncalled for on its home floor but going in we knew there was going to be something not right about the Jazz and that is the case as it is just 7-6 on the season. Last January, Utah was favored by 10 points at home over Oklahoma City and now we are seeing a drop in the line by only a bucket but the gap between these two teams has closed quite a bit since then. Oklahoma City is 36-17 ATS in its last 43 games following a loss while Utah is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win and the Thunder have covered six of the last eight meetings in Utah. 9* Oklahoma City Thunder

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **83% ANGLE** Minnesota has been pretty non-competitive of late as it has lost 12 straight games with the last eight all coming by double-digits. That being said, the Timberwolves are getting just single digits and to no surprise, the majority of the public is on the Clippers tonight. Minnesota has not won on the road is it is 0-6 with five of those losses coming by more than what it is getting here. The lone exception came in the first meeting in Los Angeles where the Clippers were favored by seven and won by only three points. We cashed a ticket in that game and we will see another similar result tonight. The big difference is that the line is roughly the same as that first meeting and will likely get to seven points and possibly more but the Clippers are playing this one without Eric Gordon. Los Angeles is 2-7 with him out of the lineup and while early indications were that he might be back tonight, that will not be the case as he is now targeting Wednesday at Indiana being his likely return game. The Clippers are 2-8, including last season, when Gordon misses games. I was on the Clippers in their last game against Denver as they cashed outright while getting nine points. That was a bad spot for the Nuggets and now we are seeing a line difference of 16 points from that game to this game and that is a huge differential within just a one-game span. The Clippers are 3-5 at home this season with all of the wins coming by seven points or fewer including two by three points including the first meeting with the Timberwolves as mentioned. Minnesota has dropped eight straight against the number and that is where we are getting value. It also falls into a great angle as you play on road teams that are averaging only between 88 and 92 ppg going up against a team that is allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 105 points or more. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -1.7 ppg. The Clippers are just 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games coming off an outright win as an underdog. 9* Minnesota Timberwolves

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY ***74% ANGLE*** Atlanta has won seven straight games and it is not in a good spot here. The Hawks are coming off a huge home win last night as they took the game on a last second shot so that alone is hard to recover from. Also, this is Atlanta

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY ***85% ANGLE*** Denver started the season 3-0 on the road but it has dropped three of its last four games away from home and it is just 3-3 overall in its last six games after beginning the year a perfect 5-0. Two of those road wins came against New Jersey and Indiana, certainly nothing to brag about and while tonight

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (TNT) *67% YTD* I

I got burned on Minnesota last week when it hosted Portland as the Timberwolves stuck around for a while but were simply outclassed. They were getting 7.5 points in that game and now they are getting just a point and a half less against Houston which makes no sense. Minnesota has lost 10 straight games so we are getting added value based on that as well as the six straight ATS losses. Minnesota is 5-1 at home and the last five games have been tough ones as it has faced Cleveland, Boston, Portland and Dallas. I do not put Houston into that group as right now the Rockets are a bunch of role players trying to put together a winning team and it just is not happening. The Rockets are coming off a loss at home against Phoenix last night as it blew a 15-point lead and that game will be tough to bounce back from. Houston is 1-2 on the road in its last three games away from the Toyota Center and it does have a pretty big game on deck at Atlanta in tow nights. It would not be surprising at all to see this team overlook Minnesota especially knowing the fact that Houston has absolutely owned this series, going 8-0 and 7-0-1 ATS but those were Houston teams that were at or close to full strength. This one is not with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady both on the shelf. One player who is having an excellent season for Minnesota is Al Jefferson and he returns tonight after missing two straight games because of the death of his grandmother. Jefferson did not play in the final two matchups against the Rockets last season because of a torn ACL. He averaged 35.0 ppg and 17.5 rpg in the first two games, matching a career high with 22 boards in the second game. His effort tonight will be huge. 9* Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a massive game for Washington. Expectations were extremely high for the Wizards entering the season but a 2-7 start has people wondering if this is the same old team from last season. They have dropped six straight games and have covered none of those but the sky looks brighter. Antawn Jamison will be making his season debut tonight following the recovery from a shoulder injury as well as a small bout with the flu. The offense has been listless but now with him, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler on the floor at the same time in forever, the offense will get the boost it needs. The Cavaliers have won five straight games and coupled with the Washington losing streak, that is putting the money in one direction. This line is small enough where the public is absolutely pounding the Cavaliers. Cleveland is coming off a dogfight last night against Golden St. and the starters played a lot more minutes than they anticipated. While that usually does not have a huge impact this early in the season, it does when the opposition has not played in three nights, as is the case with Washington. Despite the poor record, Washington is getting outshot by only 0.2 percent on the season so this team is a lot better than what it has put up in the win/loss column. The Wizards fall into a great spot based on the rest angle. Play on home teams that are coming off a home loss in their last game while playing just three games within the last 10 days. This situation is 45-17 ATS (72.6 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential favoring the home team by +5.5 ppg. The underdog has covered seven of the last eight meetings in this series and the only favorite to cover was Cleveland this season by just a half-point. 9* Washington Wizards

**8** NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT **BLOWOUT** The circus is in town in the Windy City and that means only one thing. The Bulls begin their annual extended roadtrip although this is not as bad as years past. They play six straight games on the road that will take them into December before returning home on December 2nd. Chicago has not fared well on the opening leg of this roadtrip as it has dropped 10 straight openers with all of those games coming on the west coast. That is obviously a trend that is concerning if taking the Bulls here but the competition has been in a different category. The last three openers have come against the Lakers, Suns and Mavericks so this is a big step down in competition. Chicago is just 1-3 on the road this season but looking at this slate, this is the most winnable game of the first five games so this one takes on a little more meaning than in past years. The Kings have been red hot with wins in four straight games but they have definitely been helped out by the opposition as Golden St., Oklahoma City and Houston decided not to play any defense while the latter two struggled shooting on offense. Those four victories came in a span of six days so momentum played a big role in those games going forward. Sacramento has now been off since Friday and it has played only once in a week. A team like this that cannot play consistently good needs that momentum so any extended time off completely kills that. And that will be the case here. Injuries are starting to pile up as Kevin Martin will be out for a while and now Andres Nocioni, who has been solid of late, is questionable with a hip injury. The Bulls are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference while the Kings are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games against the Eastern Conference. Chicago also falls into a great situation. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and are coming off a home win and playing with three or more days rest. This situation is 50-21 ATS (70.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* Chicago Bulls

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *UPSET SPECIAL* If this was baseball, we would not be touching this game as that is the one sport that you play on and ride the streaks out. When point spreads are involved, we go against those streaks since the lines are taking those runs into account and that is the case here. The Nets have lost 10 straight games to start the season and things are certainly not looking good. However after starting 0-5 ATS against the number, the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and on the season, four of their losses have been by three points or fewer. Two of the ATS losses came by a half-point each so despite a couple bad efforts, New Jersey has been competitive for the most part this season. While the Nets have been losing, the Pacers have been winning. They have won four straight games including a win over Boston at home in their last game on Saturday and that was the only quality win of the bunch. Indiana has played only seven games so far this season with five of those coming at home. It has not had to travel since a November 4th game against the Knicks so were looking at two weeks of being grounded and that is a long time in the NBA for that to happen. The Pacers head back home tomorrow for two more home games against the Knicks and Cavaliers. The injury situation has not been kind to the Nets as they have only been able to go eight deep. The good thing is they have not played since Saturday either so that allows some time for rest and recuperation and they will get Bobby Simmons back on Tuesday which will help an offense that has been horrid. That offense actually put the Nets into a great contrarian situation. Play on home teams that are averaging fewer than 88 ppg going up against a team that is allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* New Jersey Nets

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *UPSET SPECIAL* Toronto is a banged up bunch right now and this travel schedule is not helping matters. Many players are hurt but nothing has been put on the injury list, most likely because they will be playing despite some nagging aches and pains. As far as the travel goes, the NBA has not done Toronto any favors. The Raptors had a three-game road trip to New Orleans, Dallas and San Antonio and then headed home for a game against Chicago two days later. Now two days after that, they begin a west coast trip.

**8** NBA NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK The Sixers have gotten off to a somewhat slow start with a 4-4 record but there is no way they should be underdogs in this spot. They last home game they were a point and a half dog to Phoenix and that was right as the Suns were rolling at the time and were deserved of that number. Philadelphia is 2-2 at home this season with wins against Milwaukee and New Jersey and losses against the aforementioned Suns and the Celtics. I

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (TNT) *100% YTD* A lot of reasoning for this play was based on the result of the Cavaliers game last night. Cleveland came out on Wednesday and gave it all it had in trying to save some face and get that revenge against the Magic after last season

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **71% NBA RUN** It doesn

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **5-1 RUN** Sacramento is a surprising 3-4 to start the season including two straight wins. Making the two-game winning streak even more impressive is the fact that both wins have come with leading scorer Kevin Martin on the bench as he is expected to miss about two months with a broken wrist. Rookie Tyreke Evans is averaging 27.5 ppg in his absence as he has put together solid back-to-back games but let

**8** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **4-1 NBA RUN** I

**10** NBA GAME OF THE MONTH ***4-0 RUN*** This writeup will be kept short due to the early start of this game. Plain and simple the wrong team is favored here. Phoenix is off to a great start this season after many expected a down year however we are only a week and a half into the season and the Suns are all of a sudden the public darlings once again. The best thing that could have happened to us is Phoenix defeating Boston on Friday and even though there is one day in-between that win and this game, it still puts Phoenix in a letdown spot. Washington has dropped three straight games which also adds to the value of this line. The Wizards lost in Cleveland and then at home to Miami in a game it should have won but missed frère throws at the end killed it for them. They are coming off an embarrassing loss at Indiana on Friday and they will be looking to bounce back from that prior to playing in Miami on Tuesday. There were words in the locker room after that Pacers game and that could exactly be the kick start that the Wizards needed. Caron Butler, injured Antawn Jamison and head coach Flip Saunders were all involved in the post-game shakedown and this spot is the best to play following that. Guard Randy Foye said he thinks the players really took the comments from Jamison and Butler to heart.

**8** NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW *3-0 RUN* It

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **77% ANGLES** Toronto is coming off a home win over Detroit and it takes to the road for the second time this season. The first road game resulted in a loss in Memphis but that one can be excused as the spot was horrible. The Raptors has just won a home game against Cleveland and had a home game against Orlando on deck so they were sandwiched in a typical letdown/lookahead scenario. The situation here is much different as this is the first game of a difficult three-game roadtrip with Dallas and San Antonio up next on Saturday and Monday. This could be the most winnable game of the bunch and Toronto needs to start this tough stretch right. New Orleans got away with one on Wednesday as it was on the verge of another loss but Peja Stojakovic hit a game-tying three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation against the Mavericks and the Hornets were able to pull away in overtime. They are now 2-0 at home with that victory along with a five-point win against Sacramento, one of the worst teams in the entire NBA. That emotional win over Dallas coupled with a game at the Lakers on Sunday puts the Hornets in a very tough spot, similar to the one that the Raptors were just in. The normally solid New Orleans has not been playing well, allowing opponents to shoot 46.8 percent from the floor. This is also a good spot for Toronto based on matchups. New Orleans has the big edge at point guard with Chris Paul but the Raptors big men have a huge advantage over the low post players for New Orleans. Play against home teams that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against a team that is allowing 102 ppg or more after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1996. New Orleans is just 2-13 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last two seasons so it has not fared well in these predictable shootout situations. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 9* Toronto Raptors

**8** NBA ANTI-PUBLIC BLOWOUT *83% ANGLES* We are seeing crazy money come in on the Hawks here and why not? They are 4-1, turning into a very public team and playing the lowly Bobcats. Yet the line is moving the other way on us as it opened at +3 and Charlotte is down to +2.5 and this reverse movement is a big flag. This is the third game in four nights for the Hawks and while that isn

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (TNT) *64% RUN* Motivation is a big factor in the NBA as some nights teams give it an extra push based on the situation while other nights it is just the opposite. Tonight, we will see the former in Salt Lake City. Utah is coming off a brutal loss in Dallas on Tuesday as it took a 15-point lead into the fourth quarter only to get outscored 44-18 behind 29 points from Dirk Nowitzki who finished with a game high 40 points. It can be argued that a loss like that can carry forward but how about two losses? Prior to that, the Jazz were throttled at home against Houston by 17 points after another fourth quarter meltdown. That makes it two straight humbling defeats and that is better to come back from as there is a greater sense of urgency at this point. If there is any pride in these players, they will come back and protect their home floor. Let

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **59% RUN** Washington is looking to settle some scores on Wednesday, four of them actually. The Wizards were swept last season by Miami and only one of those games was actually a competitive game as the Heat had three wins by 14, 22 and 20 points. Even though Gilbert Arenas did not play in any of those meetings, he was there and there is no doubt he has not forgotten those games. Washington is coming off a loss last night in Cleveland so that sets this one up much better than if it had won against the Cavaliers. The Wizards are 2-2 to start the season but three of those first four games have been on the road and all against likely upcoming playoff teams. They won their lone home game, an easy victory against an overmatched New Jersey team. Miami is coming off a loss last night as well as it was outscored by 14 points in the fourth quarter against the Suns. That was the first loss of the season for the Heat but they have not exactly been playing the toughest of competition as New York, Indiana and Chicago are not the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference. The only road game thus far was against the Pacers and it was one of those games where the road team had the favorable calls. Miami went to the free throw line 46 times compared to 26 for Indiana and that is rare for the road team to have such a big differential. The Pacers also shot a miserable 4-23 (17.4 percent) from behind the arc. Miami won despite going 1-7 from long range and posting a 16/15 assist/turnover ratio. Miami allowed Phoenix to shoot 50.6 percent from the floor and make 9-23 three-pointers (39.1 percent) after giving up an average of 87.7 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting, including 21.6 percent from three-point land, in its first three games. Washington possesses the same type of firepower as it is averaging 101 ppg through four games and is shooting a healthy 48.1 percent from the floor including 40.7 percent from behind the arc. Last night just was not the Wizards night as they allowed Cleveland to shoot 17 more attempts from the floor and the Cavaliers finished with a 25/7 assist/turnover ratio and not many teams can overcome efficiency like that. 9* Washington Wizards

**8** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **78% ANGLE** Philadelphia is getting a great number here. The Sixers have won two straight games after starting the year with a pretty bad loss at Orlando. They were able to dispatch Milwaukee in their lone home game so far this season and that was followed up with the overtime win in New York on Halloween night. At full stretch, this is a very solid team and right now Philadelphia is at full strength. The Sixers were swept by the Celtics last season and they have lost seven of the eight meetings over the last two seasons so this is a huge game for them to determine exactly where they currently are. First year head coach Eddie Jordan has brought in a new attacking style for the Sixers and it is based around running a version of the Princeton offense. The Princeton offense is one of the most complicated offensive systems run in the NBA, as all five players on the court must be viable options to pass the ball to the open man, get an open shot, and knock it down. While it is a tough offense to learn it is just as tough for a defense to prepare for. Boston has looked great to start the season. The Celtics opened with a road win at Cleveland on opening night and it has won their three games since then, all of which came at home. The line in that Cavaliers game tells us a lot as they were getting five in tat game and now they are favored by seven points so the linesmakers are telling us that the Cavaliers would be favored by 12 points over the Sixers on a neutral floor and that simply is not the case so we are getting excellent value in this line. The big news out of Boston is the newly signed contract for Rajon Rondo and that is overshadowing his availability for tonight. He is questionable with an ankle injury and while it is likely that he will be playing, he will not be 100 percent. Philadelphia falls into a solid situation based on line value. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won between 45 and 55 percent of their games from a season ago. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +0.9 ppg. 8* Philadelphia 76ers

**8** NBA ESPN STAR ATTRACTION **72% RUN** The season did not start the way Dallas wanted it to with a home loss against the Wizards on opening night. The Mavericks are notoriously slow starters but they were hoping this season would be different as they have retooled their team to provide better depth are more weapons on offense. That certainly did not show against Washington but we can simply chalk it up as a bad shooting night as Dallas hit only 39.5 percent from the floor including a dismal 22.2 percent from long range (4-18 shooting). The team chemistry was there as the Mavericks committed only nine turnovers so there is no cause for concern with the exception of simply missed shots. The Lakers had their big ceremony on Tuesday night as it looked as though it may not have been a distraction as they came out strong with a big first quarter but then the adrenalin wore off and they let the Clippers hang around the rest of the game. The Clippers committed 20 turnovers and they shot 21 fewer free throws than the Lakers so improvements in those areas would have likely meant a victory. The Lakers shot 41.2 percent from the floor and like the Mavericks, that is not a big cause for concern but they hit only 67.6 percent from the free throw line, committed 16 turnovers and allowed 51 rebounds including 15 on the offensive end. Those are definite causes for concern. The two practices for Dallas between the opener and tonight's game were what you'd expect from an angry team, extremely competitive and even chippy at times. That is a good sign for a team that looks like it is more than ready to come back with more fire. The Lakers swept the season series a year ago, winning all three matchups by seven points each time and that was one of the closest series that the Lakers were involved in showing the matchups are definitely not in their favor like they are against other teams. As a matter of fact, the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by seven points or fewer. The last eight NBA Champions (LA Lakers, Boston, San Antonio, Miami, San Antonio, Detroit, San Antonio and LA Lakers) have combined for a 23-46 ATS mark (33.4 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. This includes the Lakers first game this season, an ATS loss against the Clippers. It does take a while to adjust and the opposition obviously wants to take out those teams to start their year off right. The Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home so they have been a great bounce back team. In this series, the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 8* Dallas Mavericks

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **72% RUN** Charlotte is coming off a horrible game in its opener against the Celtics. Thinking it would have been a letdown spot for Boston after it defeated the Cavaliers the previous night, it was anything but that. The Celtics did not shoot the ball particularly well but they did not need to as the Bobcats were the ones guilty of poor shooting. They went just 23-74 from the floor for 31.1 percent including a goose egg from long range as they went 0-10. They also shot a dismal 13-25 from the free throw line, good for only 52 percent, while dishing 10 assists and committing 18 turnovers. Basically nothing went right for Charlotte so Friday it gets to come home and face a team that is considered one of the worst in the conference. The Knicks are not expected to do very much this season and the season got started on a bad note, losing by 22 points in Miami. New York shot 37.9 percent from the floor including 25.6 percent from long range as it hoisted 39 shots from behind the arc. The defense is going to be a real issue and that is great news for the Bobcats. The Knicks allowed Miami to shoot 56.6 percent from the floor and things could have been worse if not for the 16 turnovers committed by the Heat. New York is going to live and die by the long ball and taking away Danilio Gallinari going 7-13 from long range, the rest of the team went 3-26 from three-point range for a woeful 11.5 percent. One of the plans this season was for Charlotte to run more and that certainly did not take place in Boston as the Bobcats were outscored 16-8 in fast break points. Welcome in the Knicks. Miami did not take advantage of all of the missed shots the other night as it was content to go with the flow but Charlotte will be looking for easy baskets in transition. Charlotte was an improved team last season as it won 35 games and looks to better than this season with a quality core of players that has spent time together along with some key new additions. Still, while head coach Larry Brown feels better about his second Bobcats

**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION *82% ANGLES* Early money is all over the Spurs in this game as 82 percent of the market is on San Antonio following its relatively easy victory last night. Even with that early money coming in on the road team, the line has shifted the other way from an opening of -4 to the current line of -3.5 in some places. The Spurs shot 52.3 percent from the floor last night and that was with newly acquired Richard Jefferson going just 1-7 in his San Antonio debut. The problem last night was that the defense allowed the Hornets to shoot 50 percent from the floor and that does not bode well for tonight playing in a back-to-back situation against a team that has yet to take the floor this season. There is a list of reasons why the Bulls should be at least somewhat improved this season. Chemistry ranks high among them and with that comes a better defensive philosophy and effort. The loss of Ben Gordon, the team

**9** NBA GAME OF THE MONTH ***100% YTD*** This is not the same Detroit team that went to the Eastern Conference Finals for six straight seasons and two NBA Finals appearances including an NBA Championship. It is also not the same team from last season that was swept in the Conference Quarterfinals last year. As a matter of fact, only six Pistons remain from last year's team and they are now guided by first-year head coach John Kuester. There is talent on this team still but it is going to take a while for the chemistry of this new group to come together and we are getting a steal going against them as road favorites here. Last season, the Pistons finished the season four games under .500 and five games under .500 on the road. The overall record was 15 games better than the Grizzlies but Memphis only had two fewer wins at home than Detroit did on the road so thus there is absolutely no big edge for the Pistons on the road here. The Grizzlies have not had a winning season in three years and they are optimistic to turn that around. They are the only team in the NBA that have four players to average at least 17.5 ppg from last season thanks to the additions of Allen Iverson and Zach Randolph. They haven't had a power forward with Randolph's ability in nearly two years since Pau Gasol was traded to the Lakers. He's consistently been one of the five or six players in the league who average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds over the course of a season. Defense and rebounding were big issues a season ago and both are being addressed and things are on the upturn. The Grizzlies were outrebounded by opponents last season by 1.1 per game but they outboarded their opponents by more than six per game during this preseason, averaging 43.5 rebounds which were sixth in the NBA. They also ranked third in the league with 10.4 offensive rpg during the preseason. Granted it was just preseason but there was a clear improved effort that was shown on the floor.

**8** NBA OPENING NIGHT DARK HORSE DANDY This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening night. It is banner night in Los Angeles and we know what that means. The Lakers will be lowering their 2008-09 NBA Championship banner along with getting their rings on Tuesday on opening night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge night and with that comes a lot of distractions. Focus is going to be an issue but even more so is the bulls-eye on their backs. Los Angeles is once again the favorite in the Western Conference and for good reason as it looks to have gotten even stronger with the addition of Ron Artest. I am certainly not denying the fact that the Lakers are the team to beat while the Clippers will be in the back of the pack clawing for a playoff spot but in spots like this, the Lakers are severely overvalued. Nearly 75 percent of the action has been put on the Lakers as of Monday afternoon and that is surely going to continue which gives us some excellent value with the Clippers. The Lakers swept the season series last year which came after sweeping the season series in 2007-08. They had covered six straight before dropping the final two meetings last season against the number as those were the only two games during this eight-game stretch that were decided by single digits. The Lakers have been favored by at least 13.5 points when they are the home team during the last three meetings so why are the reigning NBA Champions only favored by 10-points here? That is definitely a red flag and the public is biting on a line they feel is way too low in what has been a one-sided series. Injuries could play a role in this game. Pau Gasol did not practice over the weekend and probably won't play Tuesday, if the body language and overall uncertainty over his strained right hamstring is to be interpreted correctly. For the Clippers, Blake Griffin is out with a broken kneecap so his debut will be delayed at least six weeks. Now let

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***71% RUN*** I will keep this one short and sweet. The Lakers put a dagger through the Magic on Thursday and this series is all but over. Orlando had numerous chances to put Los Angeles away in Game Four to tie up this series but it was not able to take care of business. The Lakers easily played their worst game of the series but it was enough to win and that proved the point that the matchups are simply in their favor. The Magic shot a dismal 29.9 percent in Game One and 41.8 percent in Game Two. To no ones surprise, they lost both of those games. Orlando came back on Tuesday and shot a blistering 62.5 percent from the floor and it needed every bit of it to pull out the win. It shot 41.9 percent on Thursday and it was fortunate the game was as close as it was due to the poor offense performance from Los Angeles. The big reason for that was the poor output from Kobe Bryant for a second straight game. He finished just 11-31 from the floor as his touch was once again not there. This followed a dismal performance on Tuesday as after a hot start, he missed 10 of his final 12 shots while also missing five of his 10 free throw attempts. Not to mention the fact of his lack of production and numerous miscues in the fourth quarter. He did go 8-8 from the line in Game Four including some clutch ones down the stretch. Even an average game from him will give the Lakers the crown. 9* Los Angeles Lakers

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***69% RUN*** Linesmakers are thinking what a lot of the sharp players are thinking and that is the fact that the Lakers will come out and conceivably win Game Four. The line is already down to -2.5 and is actually -2 at some shops so the Magic win is not swaying action toward their side to even up this series. If not for a missed layup at the end of regulation in Game Two, Orlando would have the ball in its court and would really be able to put the pressure on the Lakers. Instead, despite the Game Three Loss, the Lakers still have the upper hand and they can really put Orlando in a tough spot with a Game Four win. The Magic shot a dismal 29.9 percent in Game One and 41.8 percent in Game Two. To no ones surprise, they lost both of those games. Orlando came back on Tuesday and shot a blistering 62.5 percent from the floor and it needed every bit of it to pull out the win. The Magic shoots 45.8 percent at home compared to 45.5 percent on the road so it isn

*10* NBA FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR *69% RUN* I think we are already seeing a must win game for the Magic and that means three big factors favoring Los Angeles. First, we will get line value as the teams that are in must win spots always have their lines inflated by the linesmakers. Second, because of the situation, the public will be all over the team needs the win and that is certainly the case tonight. Last but not least, all of the pressure is on Orlando right now, especially after dropping Game Two in which it very well could have won. We are seeing the matchup disadvantages that Orlando has in this series. Dwight Howard has been pretty non-existent in both games and he failed to show up at all in the Game One and in overtime in Game Two. Stars are supposed to take over when needed and we have yet to see that from Howard. The Magic have two fast break points this entire series and that is horrendous. It has been said over many media outlets that Orlando cannot win playing a half-court game but the Lakers are forcing them into it. A lot of that is due to coaching and the coaching edge is completely lopsided in this series which cannot be underestimated. There is a lot of motivation on the side of Los Angeles right now and the focus is not going to let up. Watching Kobe Bryant in the post-game press conference after Game Two certainly shows that. Add to the fact that Bryant had a pretty bad game on Sunday and he especially will be motivated to take this one over himself and we all know he is capable of that. The last thing the Lakers want is to give Orlando a even a slight chance of hope in this series. They pretty much know that a win here means the series is over and likely over after four games. The Lakers are 8-3 straight up and 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season. This includes a 2-1 record in the playoffs with both of those wins coming outright. With this line, we can still lose a close game and get the cover. That is important as the least likely scenario will be an Orlando rout. If anything, it would be just the opposite. 10* Los Angeles Lakers

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***75% RUN*** The importance of this game is just as big for the Lakers as it was in Game One. The team knows it cannot head to Orlando with a 1-1 split in this series since the next three games are all on the road. Los Angeles showed us it was on a mission in the first game and that type of effort will be in place yet again. One huge edge for the Lakers is that they were in this same position a year ago but had to start on the road in the NBA Finals against Boston. They know holding serve on their home floor is absolutely huge. Orlando had significant matchup advantages with Cleveland but that will not be the case with the Lakers. We have already witnessed this for one game. Cleveland did not have a supporting cast to go along with LeBron James but the Lakers in fact do have a much better balanced team than the Cavaliers. The Lakers also have Andrew Bynum who can give Dwight Howard some trouble as we have already seen and overall, the Lakers are a much better rebounding team than Orlando, especially on the offensive end. That can make a big difference between a win and a loss and in our case, the difference between a cover and a non-cover. Another big factor is free throw shooting which usually doesn

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***72.7% RUN*** I consider the Lakers a better team than Cleveland even though they finished one game behind Cleveland for the NBA

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **8-2 ATS RUN** The action is pretty evenly split for this Game Six which I thought would be the case. We have half of the public on Orlando based on home court advantage and the other half on Cleveland based on momentum from a big Game Five win. I firmly believe the latter is where the smart money is for this game. While it is another

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **7-2 ATS RUN** The home team has won and covered the last two games of this series but that is where it ends. This line is the typical

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **6-2 ATS RUN** I was on the Cavaliers in Game Four and they easily could have pulled that out and tied this series up but instead it has become a

*10* WESTERN CONF. 3RD ROUND GOY *80% RUN* The action is split pretty evenly for this pivotal Game Five in Los Angeles. The general thinking here is that the Lakers will be a hungry team after getting blown out in Game Four in Denver and they should be able to return that favor on their home floor. Los Angeles had the exact same scenario in its last series against the Rockets as it split the first four games, including a big loss in Game Four, and came back and destroyed Houston in Game Five. Let

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **6-0 ATS RUN** I was all over Orlando for Game Three and at first glace, it looks like it is in another good spot. The Magic opened as favorites but the Cavaliers have been hammered since then and they are now the road favorites. This tells us one of two things. Either the early sharp money is on the right side or this line is being driven to the wrong side based on the

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **5-0 ATS RUN** What I don

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.9% ATS RUN* Momentum could not be any more on the side of the Cavaliers right now. Had that been in Game One, Cleveland would have had a big edge for Game Two since it would have remained home. In this case, the Cavaliers have to travel to Orlando and I think that any momentum gained by the LeBron clutch shot, is lost due to the change in venue. Most importantly, we have seen that Orlando matches up extremely well with the Cavaliers, arguably the toughest matchup they have of any team in the NBA. Also, the fact that the series is tied and Orlando has stolen the home court edge, you can say that it and not the Cavaliers have the momentum edge. Orlando was able to come back in both games from huge deficits and that alone says a lot about the character of this team. The slow starts in both games may be considered an issue as in the two first quarters of the series, Cleveland has held Orlando to 34 percent shooting and 17.5 points per quarter. ESPN analyst Jon Barry summed it up perfectly.

Fargo's **8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.6% ATS RUN* Denver has covered all 12 of its playoff games and the short price at home is getting the bettors to line up behind the Nuggets once again. They outplayed the Lakers in the first two games of this series in Los Angeles and now that the series has shifted to Denver, the Nuggets look to be in absolutely great shape. Add to that they have won 16 straight games at the Pepsi Center making this an even stronger play for the public. The Nuggets now have the home court and also the pressure that goes along with it. The Lakers are not being given a chance by too many in this game. They were an NBA-best 29-12 on the road in the regular season, although they're just 2-3 away from Staples Center in the playoffs. Two of those losses to Houston were inexcusable as a lack of focus was the difference there. The third loss came at Utah by just a bucket and you can bet that there will be no lack of focus tonight. If Denver can win in Los Angeles, Los Angeles can win in Denver as this series is at close as it can get. There has not been much talk about the Denver injuries. The Nuggets are banged up, Carmelo Anthony's tender ankle, J.R. Smith's strained calf and Kenyon Martin's broken ring finger testament to the rough-and-tumble nature of this tight matchup. None of these injuries will leave these guys out of the game but they could definitely play a role late. The Lakers are not underdogs often on the road but when they are, they take it pretty serious and almost as a slap in the face. In eight games this season as road underdogs, the Lakers are 7-1 ATS, winning six of those games outright. In the situation of bouncing back, they are not many teams that are better as Los Angeles has won 17 of its 21 games following a defeat last time out. Don

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.4% ATS RUN* The knee jerk reaction by many here will be to jump on the home team based on the simple fact that the Cavaliers lost Game One and that was only their third loss at home on the entire season. There is no way Cleveland loses two in a row to begin this series. Well, I for one am not buying into that and I do in fact believe that the Magic have a legitimate shot of winning another one here. I mentioned in the writeup of that first game that the line was completely off and that we would not see a number that high again in this series. However, with Cleveland dropping that opener, the linesmakers were forced to put another big number on the Cavaliers not because they wanted to but because they had to. This is another revenge game for Cleveland but that revenge is hard to put into place when the matchups are favoring one side. Cleveland thrives on its defense but that defense finds itself in a tough spot as it will be stretched out against Orlando. The Magic are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league as they broke the team record for most three-pointers made (817) in a season. They have six players in their rotation dangerous from long range and had nine players on their roster that took more three-pointers than free throws. When those shots fall, they cannot be beat. The Magic went 9-20 in Game One (45 percent) from behind the arc and overall they shot 55.1 percent from the floor. In the four meetings this season, Orlando is shooting 49.8 percent and that is no fluke. Cleveland just does not match up well plain and simple. This is now a double revenge spot for the Cavaliers but they fall into a situation that does not bode well. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge and playing just their fifth game or fewer in 14 days. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -0.8 ppg. 8* Orlando Magic

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.1% ATS RUN* The Lakers were able to sneak one out in Game One of this series despite getting outplayed for the majority of the game. They were basically outshot, outhustled and outplayed yet Kobe Bryant found the magic to pull out a big win. Even though the Nuggets lost, they showed that they match up very well with Los Angeles and they are certainly not going to be backing down any time soon. The Nuggets are behind for the first time in the postseason, but not lacking confidence after holding the lead for most of Game One. Poor free-throw shooting was the difference as Denver went 23-35 (65.7 percent) from the stripe. The steal near the end of the game sealed it but was hardly the main cause for the setback. If Denver plays the way it did in the first game it will win the majority of the time. All three of the Nuggets playoff losses have been by two points while their eight wins have been by 19.3 ppg. One thing that keeps getting brought up is historical trends that really do not pertain to this series at all. The Lakers victory in Game One made it 11 straight playoff wins over Denver, which is the fourth longest streak in NBA history. Big deal as it means nothing here. Also, Phil Jackson coached teams that won Game One have a 42-0 series record. Who cares? Look what happened to the Celtics who were 32-0 when leading a playoff series three games to two. They are now 32-1 in such situations. The point here is that while all of the history is on the Lakers side, it means little in this series and ever more so in Game Two. Denver falls into a great situation here following that Game One loss. Play against favorites after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. We also have a great scenario based on just the Conference Finals. Home teams that won Game One of the Conference Finals are only 11-20-3 ATS in Game Two. The road team is 11-4-2 ATS when coming off a straight up and/or ATS loss so it shows when we have teams of this caliber playing in these big games, the underdog tends to step it up when called upon. 8* Denver Nuggets

*10* EASTERN CONF. 3RD ROUND GOY *75% RUN* Cleveland has made history by winning its first eight postseason games by double-digits as it is rolling throughout the playoffs. That is the main reason this line is as big as it is and it by no means should be this high. My guess is that we are not going to see a line this big during the remainder of the series so we will hit this one hard in the opening game. The Cavaliers have been waiting patiently since sweeping the Hawks and have been off for nine days which matched the time off between the first and second round series as well. The layoff did not affect the outcome of Game One against the Hawks as Cleveland rolled to a 27-point win but it was a close game in the first half as the Cavaliers led by just four points at halftime. The Hawks are no where near as good as the Magic yet Orlando is getting just three points less than what Atlanta received in that series opener. For starters, Orlando matches up extremely well with Cleveland and that was proven during the regular season when it won the season series against the Cavaliers two games to one. The lone loss came in Cleveland but that was by only four points in a game that could have gone either way. In the last series, the Cavaliers had nine days off as well. Then, the rest was arguably more important than the rust but this time around, the opposite takes precedence. Cleveland did not need the rest as it was playing excellent and this time off is a big momentum killer. Consider the fact that the Cavaliers have played only eight games in the last 35 days. That is not enough to keep a team sharp and we are going to see come continuity issues on the floor tonight. Orlando meanwhile is coming off a tough series against the Celtics but it has had three days off, which is just enough time to catch a nice break but at the same time, not big enough to take away the winning momentum from that series win. In their most recent matchup April 3rd, the Magic crushed the Cavaliers, 116-87. Sure, that makes this a revenge game for Cleveland but that revenge is hard to put into place when the matchups are favoring one side. Cleveland thrives on its defense but that defense finds itself in a tough spot as it will be stretched out against Orlando. The Magic are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league as they broke the team record for most three-pointers made (817) in a season. They have six players in their rotation dangerous from long range and had nine players on their roster that took more three-pointers than free throws. When those shots fall, they cannot be beat. It also opens things up inside for Dwight Howard who can have success once again. Plus his defense down low is big as he held Cleveland

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-12 RUN** The Lakers are coming off a tough seven-game series win over the Rockets but I believe that made them better for this opening game of the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles will be out to make a statement and not get into a similar situation of playing a series that puts it in a position like it was in against the Rockets. There is always the argument of rest versus rust and this is where Denver falls. Rest this time of season is very important but having six days off could be a detriment here. The main reason is that the Nuggets are on the road. We saw Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Semifinals have no problem with nine days off against Atlanta but that game was at home and that home floor edge can often make up for any issues of rusty shooting of a falloff of continuity. On top of that, the Lakers have some incredible line value. The four home games against the Rockets saw the line go up each game from -8.5 to -10 to -12 to -13. Add to that, they were favored by -8.5 points in each of the two regular season games against Denver. As for the Nuggets, they have covered 10 straight games and that is probably the main reason the majority of the public is lining up behind them here. It is hard to come up with a number in this situation that will attract equal action on both sides and surprisingly, the majority of square action has come in on Denver. Going 10-0 ATS is certainly impressive but it means little now, especially with a big layoff the Nuggets have had. The key player is someone you would not expect as the Lakers are a different team depending which Andrew Bynum shows up. The Lakers margin of victory during the regular season was 1.8 ppg more with Bynum in the line-up. While that figure doesn

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.6% ATS RUN* By now everyone has probably heard the Game Seven success that the Celtics have has in their past history. The Celtics beat Atlanta and Cleveland at home in Game Seven of the first two rounds last year. They did it again against the Bulls this year, a series in which four games reached overtime. Overall, they are 17-3 in seventh games at home. While history means little to the actual teams taking the court today, it may mean more than you think. The aura of the Boston success can play a big role in the way the opposition comes out to play. Orlando is downplaying it but it is definitely there. There is also the historical record of the Celtics after leading a series 3-2, they are 32-0 all-time. Again that means nothing to the teams on the floor tonight but both just knowing that history gives the edge to Boston as far as a psychological standpoint goes. One area of technical concern is the play of Ray Allen, who, that one big shot in Game Five aside, has had a very subpar series as he's had shooting nights of 2-12, 3-13, 3-11, and 2-11. He is due for a breakout and this could be the game. Just imagine if he was playing only average in this series and where it would stand right now. The Celtics would likely be resting and waiting for Game One against Cleveland tomorrow night. The fact that Allen has played so poorly shows a lot about the makeup of the rest of the team. It is a pretty simple plan for the Celtics but now it just needs to be executed. The Celtics have done a reasonable job of getting back on defense, but they

**8** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-11 RUN** Once again we have a situation where a team is in a must win spot and because of that, the line is inflated. Orlando was favored by five points in the previous two meetings at home and now that line has jumped a bucket only because it is an elimination game. Based on the last two games of this series, there is a very good likelihood we will see yet another closely contested game as these teams are figuring each other out. Orlando is in a situation where there have been internal squabbles and this is certainly not the spot or the time for this to be taking place. Dwight Howard called out his coach after the last game and even though word is that everything has been straightened out, I highly doubt everything is peachy between Howard and head coach Stan Van Gundy. There was a great article in USA Today by the Game On guys and they brought up some great points. Howard was upset because he shot the ball only 10 times and blamed that on the Orlando Game Five loss. However, upon further review, the Magic were 16-7 when Howard shot 10 field goals or fewer, for a .696 winning percentage that's close to their .720 overall mark. The bottom line is that Orlando doesn't win big when Howard fires away as he averaged 12.5 shots in Magic victories and 12.2 in losses. Shoot away Dwight, shoot away. Take away his dunks and he is a very average post player. Momentum from Game Four did not help as the Celtics came out pretty flat in Game Five but the rally from 14 points down with less than nine minutes remaining will be a better confidence builder going forward into Game six. The Celtics hope to ride that momentum to a clinching victory tonight in Orlando, where they likely will encounter a desperate Magic squad after absorbing back-to-back gut-wrenching losses. Desperate does not always mean more focused or more energetic and it can often pose an opposite effect of what the mission at hand is. Since last season, the Celtics have posted a 2-3 record in Game Six contests, going 2-2 in last season. Both Game Six setbacks came on the road however both were close at Atlanta, 103-100 and at Cleveland, 74-69. This season, the Celtics suffered a disappointing Game Six loss to the Bulls in triple overtime by just one point. The loss to Chicago was tough to take since the series went to a Game Seven which meant hardly any rest. The goal is to win this game and get two extra days before playing Cleveland. After the win on Tuesday, Boston is 17-4 ATS this season following a win by six points or fewer. The Celtics are also 16-5 ATS as underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last two years and they are an even better 21-5 ATS when getting between 6.5 and 12 points over the last three years. In case you were wondering, this is the biggest line the Celtics have gotten all season and not for any good reason other than it is a must win for the Magic. 8* Boston Celtics

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *59.4% ATS RUN* While Dallas is still unlikely to win this series, it showed by winning on Monday night that it is not backing down and brings some momentum into this second straight must-win game. The intensity that was on display from the Mavericks was something we had not seen in this series and I expect that to continue in Game Five. I also believe the most important aspect of this game is that there is absolutely no pressure on the Mavericks. No one thinks they will win this game so playing like the pressure is on the other side is what needs to be done. A win here send Game Six back to Dallas and that could setup a Game Seven back in Denver where anything can happen in those final contests. It is unlikely yes, but more likely than it was two days ago. There was a lot of heart on display Monday from Dirk Nowitzki and it will be up to him to carry his team once again. Nowitzki, plagued by well-documented personal issues all week, scored 44 points, including 19 in the fourth quarter. He wasn't ready to go home. Neither was Josh Howard, who scored 21 points and grabbed 11 rebounds on two bad ankles. Winning in Denver is not easy so the line is big for a reason although it is bigger than it should be which I will tough upon down further. The Nuggets have won 15 straight games at home and they have blown through the opposition in five playoff games by an average of 15.8 ppg. Winning outright will be tough but covering will not be as big of a challenge. Depending on the line being used, Denver is possibly 9-0 ATS this postseason and that is a record that is largely in our favor. The reason being is that is puts the public squarely on the streak and creates line value in the process as there is some serious line value in this number. The first two games in Denver saw the Nuggets favored by -6.5 and -7 and tonight, it is up to -9 in some places with the majority sitting at -8.5. The feeling by the linesmakers is that the Nuggets are going to close this series out so they are upping this number to try and even out the action a little more but it does not seem to be working thus far. As of Wednesday morning according to offshore accounts, 70 percent of the over 15,000 wagers are on the Nuggets. Dallas also falls into a solid situation. Play against home favorites after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being just -4.9 ppg. 8* Dallas Mavericks

*10* EASTERN CONF. 2ND ROUND GOY *59% RUN* Boston won in dramatic fashion on Sunday night with a buzzer beater to even the series up and shift the homecourt advantage back to the Celtics. It has not been a consistent series as each team has lost once on its home floor and no team has won two straight games. That will change tonight as that victory for the Celtics was absolutely enormous as instead of being down 3-1, they are tied at 2-2 and the momentum rides back into Boston with them. Boston not only won the game but uncovered a way to hold down Orlando that will help in these upcoming games. The key was defending on the perimeter and limiting the penetration of the Magic's ball handlers. That enabled the Celtics to stay in command for most of the contest, despite getting little production from their bench and another rough shooting night from Ray Allen. Now heading home, that defensive effort should be even more prevalent. The Magic committed only eight turnovers Sunday after having 17 in Game Three. The Celtics had only three steals in Game Four, eight fewer than in Game Three. But the Celtics mostly followed their orders to play straight-up, fundamental defense without gambling. It took an improved effort on the defensive end for the Celtics to overcome their outside shooting deficiencies, finishing 1-10 from long range. Allen is 3-24 on three-pointers in this series but we all saw what he is capable of in that Bulls series so it is only a matter of time before he becomes involved once again. Tying the series in Orlando was huge but the way it happened was even bigger. If Boston had won Game Three and dropped Game Four, the Magic would be the team with the momentum heading into Game Five but instead, it is reversed and that really cannot be overstated. Orlando was a team that was bringing in the money at a feverish pace but that has not been the case recently. Orlando is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games including a 2-6 ATS mark on the road. Boston has not been much better but it has been profitable in certain spots and this is one of those as it is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record and 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite of fewer than five points. Orlando is just 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series in Boston. I talked about momentum and the Magic have not fared well following these tough losses as they are 8-26 ATS in their last 34 games following a home loss of three points or fewer. Boston meanwhile is 16-4 ATS this season following a victory by six points or fewer. 10* Boston Celtics

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-10 RUN** Dallas had its season taken away in Game Three by the officials with a no call foul that possibly could have changed the outcome of the game. Instead, no foul was called, Carmelo Anthony drained a three-pointer for the victory and basically ended any hope of a Mavericks series win. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series disadvantage but Dallas remains upbeat and confident a will be heading back to Denver on Wednesday for another elimination game. Pride is on the line tonight and the Mavericks will try to avoid two things. First, they are 0-7 against the Nuggets this season and will be looking to avoid the season sweep. Second, they will be looking to avoid a playoff series sweep for the first time in franchise history. The Mavericks talked Sunday about making sure the Nuggets don

**8** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM *71% ATS RUN* Cleveland is rolling along right now with wins in six straight playoff games, going 6-0 ATS as well, while winning 10 straight against the number going back to the regular season. I expected this line to be in the range of Cleveland -4 or -5, similar to the line it was giving to Detroit in the first road game in the first round. The big reason for the inflated line is the expected absence of Joe Johnson for the Hawks. He has not done much in this series in the first two games but with him now out, I see the rest of the Hawks stepping up and this is a very similar scenario we saw when the Magic defeated the Sixers with the suspended Dwight Howard on the bench for Orlando. I am certainly not comparing Cleveland to the Sixers but it is one of those situations that we see quite often when a team steps up for a fallen player in his first game out. The good news for the Hawks on the injury from is that both Al Horford and Marvin Williams have been upgraded to probable for this game. Both players missed Game Two and were both non-factors in Game One. While Atlanta deals with the likely loss of Johnson, Cleveland has some injury issues of its own, as Delonte West is listed as questionable with an eye injury suffered in Game Two. He very well could play but it remains to be seen how effective he will be. This is obviously a must win spot for Atlanta and it knows that it can win this game. The Hawks defeated Cleveland at home back on December 13th, which snapped the Cavaliers 11-game winning streak. It should be noted that Johnson did not have a great game, scoring 17 points in 31 minutes of action. Atlanta was a home underdog then, one of six games it was getting points at home this season. The Hawks went 5-1 ATS in those games, winning three outright and this is easily the biggest number it has seen at Philips Arena as all of the other lines were four points or fewer. Despite the big number, the public is backing the Cavaliers once again and that is fine by us. The home teams has covered five of the last six in this series and Atlanta is a solid 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog between five and 10.5 points. Don

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **5-1 ATS RUN** The betting public is all over the Lakers and why wouldn

**10** WESTERN CONF. 2ND ROUND GOY *59% RUN* While the long layoff did not bother the Cavaliers last night, it certainly had bad effects on the Lakers in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles was embarrassed on its home floor and now finds itself in a must win spot. The Rockets came in with extreme confidence and they were able to control the inside as well as looking for more quick and polished up top. The Lakers countered with lackluster interior defense from big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum and poor shooting from leading scorer Kobe Bryant. The whole team shot poorly at the beginning of the game and things could have been a lot worse. The Lakers started by shooting only 5-19 (26.3 percent) en route to a 21-18 deficit by the end of the first quarter. They shot only 39.5 percent (17-43) in the first half, and trailed by only 43-40. Bryant missed eight of his first 12 shots before finding his touch in the second half. He finished with 32 points on 14-for-31 shooting. The Lakers were favored by eight and a half points in that first game and this number is higher as the linesmakers has made an adjustment for the

**7** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *59% TP RUN* I think the best thing that could have happened to the Cavaliers was the Lakers losing last night. The top seed in the Western Conference goes down and Cleveland will be more focused because of that as it certainly does not want the same thing to happen to it. The Cavaliers have been off for eight days and that is a lot there is no doubt about it. While rust is a concern, I am seeing as more of an advantage as the time off means fresher legs and this time of season, that is extremely important. We saw it last with the Magic who played a Boston team with just a day of rest and even though the Celtics made a huge run late, the early run by Orlando was due to more energy. I see the same thing tonight for the Hawks who have just a day of rest between the final game against Miami and this one. The Hawks/Heat series was horrible and Atlanta was not very good in the series win. The winning margins were all by double-digits but the three losses were by 26, 29 and 15 points. Good teams do not lose games like that. A benefit of the doubt can be given for one loss like that but not three. Cleveland won the season series three games to one even though Atlanta did won the cover battle three games to one. The Cavaliers will not be backing down at all here and they have been simply rolling along with a 9-1 record over their last 10 games with that only loss coming against the Sixers in the season finale when the starters sat. The line may seem big for a second round playoff game but Cleveland is 14-7 ATS when favored by 11 or more points and it is 5-1 ATS in the six games that it has extended rest of three or more days. The Hawks have been dogs only once at this number when they were getting 12 points in Cleveland and lost by 14 points. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS after a road win by 10 or more points this season and 7-0 ATS following four straight double-digit wins. Cleveland takes game one going away. 7* Cleveland Cavaliers

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **59% TOP RUN** I just don

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-9 RUN** This one will be kept short due to the time constraints of this early start. This has been the worst series in the NBA playoffs as not any of the first six games has been close as each one has been decided by double-digits. So what makes this one special? I do not play the

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **59% TOP RUN** With the way this series has played out thus far, the public is riding the Bulls tonight as they are thinking we can expect yet another close game. This series has been arguably one of the best playoff series

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **59% TOP RUN** The Celtics clearly are not the Celtics of last season. Or are they? They were in the exact same spot a season ago when they led the Hawks three games to two and went to Atlanta and lost game six before heading home and thumping the Hawks to take the series. The only difference in this series is that each team has won one game on the opponent

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (NO/DEN) **59%** Denver is coming off a match of the biggest playoff victory in the history of the NBA. This could be looked at in two ways. New Orleans can completely fold after that game and give the series to the Nuggets. Or it can takes some pride in itself and come out strong while Denver could be playing with some overconfidence. My first thought was that it might be more of the latter as the Nuggets will be overconfident and may be looking to just slide by in this game to take the series. As bad as the Hornets played, those players want to play for pride if nothing else. That lopsided victory prompted the linesmakers to bump this line up four points from the previous two games that were played in Denver. I was not expecting double-digits in this game so we get incredible line value and we see that the public does not care and is lining up on the Nuggets side. The Nuggets have mostly dominated the series, and they lead all Western Conference playoff teams in scoring and shooting percentage. The Hornets trail the field in both categories but both of those are skewed by that last game. New Orleans is coming into this game loose and knowing the pressure is on the Nuggets. Hornets forward David West said the pressure is on the Nuggets to close out the series tonight. If Denver wins, it will be the first time since the 1993-94 season the team has advanced past the first round.

**10** EASTERN CONF. 1ST ROUND GOY *100%* This has been an underdog series with the team getting points going 3-0-1 ATS but that all changes after tonight. Boston is back home with a chance to regain its swagger and avoid a possible elimination in Chicago on Thursday. This is eerily similar to last season as Boston was tied 2-2 in its series with Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit. The Celtics went on to win each of those Game Fives on their way to the NBA Championship. Hats go off to Chicago to be where it is right now but I think it is more lucky that good to be tied in this series. The Bulls' two victories required extra effort as they won the opener 105-103 in overtime and Game Four in two overtimes on Sunday, 121-118. Ben Gordon's three-point shot with 4.5 seconds left sent that game into a second overtime, a gutty performance after he had strained his left hamstring in the second quarter. If shots go the other way in the latter stages of those two games, the Celtics very could be sitting home right now after a 4-0 series sweep. Boston is not the same team as last year, we all know that, but we could see its most inspired effort of the playoffs come tonight following that

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **25-9 RUN** Denver let a golden opportunity get away to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series. The Nuggets blew an early 18-point lead and then went down by 11 points late in the game before coming back and almost pulling it out. Even though it is up just 2-1, Denver has dominated as a whole, winning 10 of the 12 quarters played and it has a scoring differential of +14 ppg through the first three games. The Hornets were able to hold on their home floor in the first meeting in New Orleans but I don

Writeups truncated today. We saw Boston rebound from an early series split and roll last night and I expect the same from Orlando tonight. The Magic put up a dud in game one but bounced back to even up the series and they will get home court back after tonight. The Magic were 27-14 on the road this season, tied with Cleveland and Boston for tops in the Eastern Conference so winning away from home is certainly not a problem. Orlando falls into a great contrarian situation. Play on road teams after having lost four or five of their last six games and are winning 60 and 75 percent or more of their games on the season. This situation is 66-35 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 7* Orlando Magic

The home team has not been as dominant as expected in the first round of the playoffs as the hosts are just 11-7 which is weak considering all of the home teams in these first round series

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *17-10 RUN* Orlando is the fourth team that lost its first game of its playoff series at home. The other three teams all took care of business in game two and I see the Magic doing the same thing here. San Antonio was the only team of those first three that covered the second game and Orlando will even that record up after tonight. Orlando blew a golden opportunity as it led by as many as 18 points before blowing the game in the fourth quarter and letting the Sixers gain home court advantage. Going down 2-0 would likely end the series for Orlando and as we have already seen, these teams that started out with that homecourt advantage have come out with a greater sense of urgency in game two. Dating to 1947, there have been 378 seven-game series played in the NBA and only three teams have lost their first two playoff games at home and ended up winning the series. In fact, Dwight Howard is so certain of victory, he issued a veiled guarantee. After being told how rare it is for teams to fall behind 2-0 at home and still win a series, he declared,

**9** #1 RATED 1ST ROUND REPORT *17-9 RUN* Portland was absolutely embarrassed on Saturday as it was trounced at home by 27 points so we can expect a huge bounce back effort tonight. I was on the Blazers in game one and the contest was over early as the Rockets shot 58.5 percent from the floor but we will not see anything close to that here. The home crowd will be rocking once again and this time the home team will come through. Portland finished the regular season 34-7 at home which was the second best home record in the Western Conference behind the Lakers. One of those victories came against the Rockets by two points in overtime but that game was way back in early November and the Blazers are a much better team since then. Their scoring differential was +10.4 ppg at home and some will say this margin is skewed because of early season wins by 48, 38 and 32 points but at the same time, there were some close wins that brought that average down. Of their last six home wins, five were by 20 or more points and three of those were against teams with a winning record. Portland went 2-11 on the road against Western Conference playoff teams but went 10-3 at home, winning those 10 games by an average of 13.3 ppg. The first game was a situation where nothing went right for the Blazers while everything went in favor of Houston. During the regular season, Houston went 10-4 at home against Western Conference playoff teams but 4-9 on the road against those teams so it is in the same situation as the Blazers when it comes to home and road matchups. We only have a half-point differential in this line from the first game so we do not lose a lot of the value that normally comes when the lines are set following a loss. The Blazers fall into a great bounce back situation as well. Play on home teams that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and playing with two days rest. This situation is 54-14 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +10.1 ppg. We saw both the Spurs and Celtics win last night after suffering game one losses (even though the Celtics did not cover) and we will see it again tonight. 9* Portland Trailblazers

**7** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **17-8 RUN** There is already talk about how the Celtics are finished. Yes, game one was a major blow to the defending champs but if a team is going to bounce back, this is the one. Boston was a force at home this season and losing back-to-back games just isn

Fargo's **7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **24-8 RUN** The Hawks are playing for some respect. In the final weeks of the regular season, all the talk in the Eastern conference was how teams were jockeying for that 5th spot so it could avoid a first round matchup with Cleveland, Boston or Orlando. You think Atlanta was aware of any of this talk? Of course it was and because of that, it will be out to prove something here. The Hawks won three of the four meetings at home against Miami this season including both games played in Atlanta. Those two victories in Atlanta were close games but that final meeting, which was played on the second to last day of the regular season, was meaningless. The Hawks finished 31-10 at home including 11-3 over the last 14 games. Those three losses came against Orlando, Boston and San Antonio and while Miami is a playoff team as well, it can not be put into that group despite having a superstar in Dwyane Wade. Despite the efforts of Wade, the Hawks have a better team and don

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **SATURDAY** Whether or not Portland ends up winning this series remains to be seen but Game One definitely goes to the home team here. The Blazers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002-03 so you know the Rose Garden will be one of the toughest places to go into for the opposition during these first eight games of the playoffs. Portland finished the regular season 34-7 at home which was the second best home record in the Western Conference behind the Lakers. One of those victories came against the Rockets by two points in overtime but that game was way back in early November and the Blazers are a much better team since then. Their scoring differential was +10.4 ppg at home and some will say this margin is skewed because of early season wins by 48, 38 and 32 points but at the same time, there were some close wins that brought that average down. Of their last six home wins, five were by 20 or more points and three of those were against teams with a winning record. Portland went 2-11 on the road against Western Conference playoff teams but went 10-3 at home, winning those 10 games by an average of 13.3 ppg. Portland lacks playoff experience as only two players have been to the postseason before but it really is not a huge matter, especially in this first game where it will be more about passion and energy than anything else. The Blazers have their superstar in Brandon Roy, along with LaMarcus Aldridge, who will play a big part in defending Yao Ming, and the deepest supporting cast in the Western Conference that includes Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez providing major scoring threats off the bench. As for Houston, it was definitely a good season but its play on the road was inconsistent and that final loss in Dallas to close the regular season was devastating as it knocked the Rockets down to 5th in the conference. Houston went 10-4 at home against Western Conference playoff teams but 4-9 on the road against those teams so it is in the same situation as the Blazers. Portland is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season and it is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a home win by 20 points or more this season. 8* Portland Trailblazers