Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-15-16 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 207 | Top | 98-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! |
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03-14-16 | Wolves v. Suns -1 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational Oddsmakers Error on Suns - Phoenix is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Timberwolves. Minnesota comes into this game off a surprising 99-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 12-point dog. That along with the fact that the Wolves have covered 3 of their last 4, has them way overvalued here. The Suns have gone just 5-33 over their last 38 games, including 3 straight losses coming into this contest. However, injuries have played a big part in their poor play. Brandon Knight just returned after a near 2 month absence and put up 30 points in a 116-123 loss at Golden State as a 19-point dog. With Knight back in the mix, Phoenix is a completely different team and simply should be favored by more at home against an equally bad team in Minnesota. Timberwolves are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4, 19-40 in their last 59 off a road win by 3-points or less and 8-22 ATS in their last 30 against a team with a losing record. Take Phoenix! |
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03-14-16 | Pistons v. Wizards -2 | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Wizards - Washington is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Pistons. The Wizards are simply not getting the respect they deserve from the books at home due to having lost 5 straight. The key thing to keep in mind is 4 of those 5 losses came on the road. Washington is 6-1 over their last 7 home games and will be facing a Pistons team that is just 15-21 on the road. Detroit comes in having won 3 of 4, but have not been playing well defensively during this stretch. The Pistons are allowing 106.0 ppg over their last 5 and are allowing 102.1 ppg overall on the road this season. Washington averages 104.1 ppg at home and should have their way on that side of the floor. It's also worth noting that the Wizards have won 3 straight in the series and held Detroit to just 92.0 ppg in those 3 victories. Pistons are just 7-17 ATS in their 24 road games this season against up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game and 7-18 AT in their last 25 road games against teams allowing 99+ points/game. Pistons are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Lay the points! |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | Top | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + Dallas comes into this game having lost 5 straight and as a result we are getting great value on the Mavericks here as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. Charlotte on the other hand is overvalued due to winning 7 straight. Not to take anything away from the Hornets, but their 7-game winning streak has come against a favorable schedule and 6 of the 7 have come at home. As poorly as the Mavericks have been playing of late, they are still tied for 7th in the west. With that said, Dallas can't continue to play this bad and I look for an all out effort here against Charlotte. The Hornets on the other hand are due for a letdown. Charlotte has allowed 100+ points in 5 straight an eventually that poor defensively will catch up to them. Dallas is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Charlotte is just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. Take the points! |
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03-13-16 | Cavs v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 | Top | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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03-13-16 | Purdue v. Michigan State -4.5 | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Purdue/Michigan St NCAAB Vegas Insider on Michigan St - I really like the Spartans to not only win, but to do so in fashion. Michigan State didn't play anywhere close to their best basketball and still held on to beat Maryland yesterday. With Villanova's loss to Seton Hall, the Spartans have a legit shot at earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win this game. Michigan State has gone 12-1 over their last 13 games. The only loss during this stretch came at Purdue 81-82. Needless to say the Spartans haven't forgot about that defeat and will be out to make a statement. Purdue has reached the Big Ten finals having beat Illinois and Michigan, both in blowout fashion. That's nothing to get excited about, as neither of those teams are all that great. That that they won both by 17+ points, has definitely kept this line a lot lower than it should be. Spartans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after allowing 65 or less points in 2 straight games and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 when they come in having won 15 or more of their last 20. Purdue is 0-7 AT in their last 7 road games after 5 straight games outrebounding their opponent by 6 or more. Lay the points! |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks - The Pelicans are no longer a threat to make the playoffs, as they are 8.5-games back of 8th place Dallas with just 18 games left on the schedule. They also have to pass 3 other teams ahead of them just to get to the Mavericks. This is a team that is going to struggle to play hard down the stretch, as they came into this season with the expectation of making the playoffs. This is an especially difficult spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans lost in overtime last night at Memphis and will now be playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Four of the five starters played 40+ minutes and Ryan Anderson played 37 off the bench. Making it even harder to get up for this game is the fact that they have the Warriors on deck Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand comes in off a win at home over Miami and will be playing on 2 days of rest. Bucks are also a respectable 19-12 at home, while the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road. New Orleans is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 120 or more points. Milwaukee is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing 2 of their last 3. Lay the points! |
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03-12-16 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | 125-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams just played back on 2/24 and combined for just 202 points with a total of 210. The books have adjusted, but not enough. In fact, each of the last 6 meetings in the series have seen a combined score less than the number posted here. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one, as both are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Philadelphia figures to really struggle offensively, as they have lost Okafor for the season and will also be without Covington. Those are two of their top 3 scorers, who combine for nearly 30.0 ppg. UNDER is 9-1 in the Pistons last 10 road games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, 6-1 in their last 7 road games overall and 17-7 in their last 24 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 24-10-1 in the 76ers last 35 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! |
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03-12-16 | Connecticut v. Temple +2 | 77-62 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Temple + Connecticut was able to escape with a 104-97 win in quadruple overtime yesterday against Cincinnati. That win may have been enough to get the Huskies into the NCAA Tournament, but they simply aren't going to have enough left in the tank to compete with the Owls. Connecticut had 5 different players play at least 43 minutes, including 55 from Daniel Hamilton and 54 from Sterling Gibbs. While the Huskies played an extra 20 minutes of basketball, Temple cruised to a 79-62 win over South Florida. The Owls are in good position to make the tournament, but can greatly help their seeding by winning the AAC tournament. Temple also poses a tough matchup for Connecticut. The Owls won both regular season meetings and in both games held the Huskies under 40% shooting. Temple is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a conference win by 10 or more points, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral site. Take the points! |
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03-11-16 | Memphis v. Tulsa -3.5 | 89-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night Vegas Insider on Tulsa - The Golden Hurricanes are showing some great value here against Memphis. Tulsa is going to be out for revenge from a 82-92 loss at Memphis back on 2/28. The key thing to keep in mind with that result, is the Tigers were playing at home. Memphis went a miserable 3-8 in their 11 games on the road this season. That loss to the Tigers was the only real bad effort out of the Golden Hurricanes down the stretch. They went 6-2 over their final 8 games with the only other loss coming by a mere 2-points at Connecticut. Memphis is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog, 6-16 ATS in their last 22 off a road win by 10 or more and 1-9 ATS this season off a game where they covered the spread. Tulsa is 19-5 ATS in their last 24 off a SU win by 10 or more against a conference opponent and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! |
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03-11-16 | Wizards v. Jazz UNDER 198 | 93-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Jazz UNDER The books have set the mark way too high for tonight's showdown between the Jazz and Wizards. This is an important game for both teams. After losing each of their last 3 games, Washington is now 2.5-games out of the 8th and final spot in the east. Utah has lost 7 of their last 8 to fall 3-games back of the 8th spot in the west. This is a game that both teams desperately want and need, which I believe is going to lead to a max defensive effort from both teams. Utah allowed 115 in their last game against the Warriors, but had held each of their previous 3 opponents to 94 or less and giving up only 94.2 ppg at home this season. Washington's defense has slipped in their last few games, but have held 8 of their last 13 to 100 or less. They also haven't allowed Utah to score more than 91 in each of the last 4 meetings. UNDER is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 against a team with a losing record, 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 12-3 in Utah's last 15 against a team with a losing record and 22-10 in their last 32 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the UNDER! |
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03-11-16 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -1 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure - The Bonnies are showing great value here at basically a pick'em against the Wildcats. St. Bonaventure has quietly been playing their best basketball of the season. The Bonnies closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins and won 10 of their last 11 overall. Davidson was able to defeat Lasalle 78-63 yesterday in their A-10 Tournament opener, but this is not a team that you can trust on the road. The Wildcats went just 4-10 away from home all season and that includes a 12-point loss at St Bonaventure. The Bonnies also have a big advantage here having received a first round bye. St Bonaventure is 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after scoring 75+ points in each of their last 2 games. Take the Bonnies! |
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03-11-16 | Wolves +12.5 v. Thunder | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves + Minnesota is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Thunder. Oklahoma City is simply getting too much respect off their 12-point win against the Clippers, where they easily covered the spread. The key here is this is not a great spot at all for the Thunder. Oklahoma City really invested a lot into that game against Los Angeles, as they had blown a 20+ point lead to the Clippers the previous week. Not only are the Thunder in a prime letdown spot, but they also have a huge game on deck tomorrow at San Antonio, which is the primetime matchup on ABC. All Oklahoma City wants is to leave this game with a win, they aren't going to be worried about blowing this thing wide open. Minnesota on the other hand is going to come out motivated against one of the elite teams and keep in mind they played the Thunder tough in the last meeting, losing by just 3-points at home. Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points and the Thunder are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 after covering last time out. Take the points! |
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03-11-16 | Tennessee v. LSU -4.5 | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on LSU - The Tigers only hope of making the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament and it starts with today's game against Tennessee. LSU caught a big break with Vanderbilt losing to the Volunteers and I look for the Tigers to make easy work of what should be a worn down Tennessee team. The Volunteers will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, while the Tigers received a double-bye. Tennessee started to show signs of the fatigue setting in, as they nearly blew a 12-poing halftime lead, barely holding on for a 67-65 win. I just don't see the Volunteers being able to match the intensity of LSU, who is also going to come into this game look for revenge from a ugly 65-81 loss at Tennessee in the only meeting during the regular season. The Volunteers are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win over a conference opponent and just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win. LSU had won 2 straight prior to losing 77-94 at Kentucky in their regular season finale, but are a strong 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 following a SU loss. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Virginia Tech v. Miami (Fla) -7 | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami - The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an ugly 15-point loss at Virginia Tech and the Hokies come into this game having won 6 straight, including a 96-85 win as a 5-point dog in yesterday's matchup with Florida State. Miami likely didn't take the Hokies seriously in their regular season finale, as they were just coming off 3 straight wins against Virginia, Louisville and Notre Dame and had already beat Virginia Tech by 16 at home. Not only will the Hurricane be extremely motivated with revenge on their minds, but they also have a chance to play their way into a No.2 seed if they can make a deep run in the ACC Tournament. Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 when revenging a road loss, 2-0 ATS this season off a loss by 15 or more and 3-0 ATS in all tournament games. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -6.5 | 70-58 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Wisconsin - The Badgers are showing great value here against the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin closed out the regular season with an ugly 80-91 loss at Purdue, which is definitely helping this line. That loss shouldn't be judged in a negative way. The focus should be more on how dominant the Badgers were down the stretch run of Big Ten play. Nebraska was the exact opposite. The Cornhuskers lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 11 in the regular season. That fact that they come in off a 17-point win against Rutgers isn't anything to worry about, as the Scarlet Knights are awful. I just don't see Nebraska being able to put up a fight here against a pissed off Wisconsin team that is more than capable of winning this tournament. Nebraska is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they covered the spread and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -4 | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Hawks/Raptors NBA Heavy Hitter on Raptors - The Raptors are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. Toronto has won 13 of their last 14 at home and have been doing so behind an explosive offense that is averaging 107.4 ppg during this stretch. Atlanta's defense has been playing well of late, but this is not a good spot for the Hawks. Atlanta will be playing the finale of a 5-game road trip. Each of the first 4 on the trip were on the west coast, now they have to travel completely across the country to face the Raptors. Having already secured a winning road trip, I just don't see the Hawks being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record and we find a strong system in play backing a fade of Atlanta. Road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two strong free throw shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games are 16-41 (28%) ATS after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Marquette v. Xavier -9 | 72-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No-Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Xavier - I look for the Musketeers to come out looking to make a statement in their conference tournament opener and they will have a big advantage here. While Marquette had to play yesterday against St John's, Xavier got a first round bye. That extra rest is critical this time of year. This might seem like a big number for the Musketeers to be laying given their two wins against Marquette in the regular season came by just 8 and 9 points, but I'm not concerned about those results. Xavier could have easily won both of those games by double-digits. If anything, those close calls will have the Musketeers completely focused on the task at hand. Marquette is just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring more than 90 points. Xavier is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia -9.5 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC Game of the Month on Virginia - Georgia Tech rallied from an 18-point deficit to stun Clemson 88-85 in the opening round of the ACC Tournament yesterday. As impressive as that wins looks on paper, it has the Yellow Jackets in an awful spot tonight against a Virginia team that is playing their best basketball and fighting for a No. 1 seed. Making matters even worse for Georgia Tech is they are going to get a pissed off Virginia team, as the Cavaliers will be out for revenge from a 64-68 road loss back in early January. Virginia wasn't playing anywhere close to the level that they were to close out the season. With the way they get it after it defensively and the Yellow Jackets not having a whole lot left in the tank, this game should get ugly in a hurry. Neutral court teams that are revenging a loss as a favorite and are coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite are 25-5 (83%) ATS since 1997. Lay the points! |
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03-10-16 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -10 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt - Tennessee was able to come away with an impressive 97-59 win over Auburn in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, but that's nothing to get excited about. Without Kevin Punter the Volunteers are simply not a serious threat and I look for them to struggle to keep it competitive against the Commodores. Vanderbilt owned Tennessee in both meetings during the regular season, winning by 14 on the road and 17 at home. While you might think that could be reason for Vanderbilt not to take the Volunteers seriously, I don't believe that will be the case. Tennessee was the team responsible for knocking out Vanderbilt in last year's SEC Tournament. Prior to their win against the Tigers, the Volunteers closed out the regular season with 4 straight losses, all by 10 or more points. Those struggles were a direct result of Punter's absence and not having him on no rest will be too much to overcome. Lay the points. |
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03-10-16 | Illinois v. Iowa -10.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa - The Hawkeyes went from a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to a team that is flying under the radar going into the Big 10 Tournament. Iowa was able to close out the regular season with an impressive 71-61 win at Michigan and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement against the Fighting Illini. The Hawkeyes are more than capable of winning this tournament. Getting off to a strong start will be a focal point for them, as they have been upset in the first round each of the last two years. I just don't see Illinois putting up much of a fight in this one. The Illini had to play yesterday against Minnesota and really struggled at home against the Hawkeyes in the lone meeting this season. Iowa won by just 12, but had a 20-point lead with less than 10 minutes to play. Don't be fooled by Illinois' 33-point win over Minnesota, as the Gophers were decimated with suspensions and injuries that simply gave them zero chance of being competitive. The Illini are just 5-10 in their last 15 games and those 5 wins have all come against Minnesota (3-times) and Rutgers (2-times). Illinois is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games, 2-7 ATS interior last 9 against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Lay the points! |
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03-09-16 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 201 | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year on Heat/Bucks UNDER I'm expecting a defensive showdown in tonight's matchup between the Bucks and Heat. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in pace and the Heat are 26th. I look for the defensive intensity to be there for both teams. Miami has had the last 2 days off and will be motivated to get a win with road games at Chicago and Toronto on deck. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses and will be focused here against a top level team at home. These two teams combined for 210 points in the most recent meeting on 1/29. However, both teams shot lights out from the field. Milwaukee hit 47.5% of their field goal attempts and the Heat were even better at 50%. Keep in mind the total for that game was just 194.5. The previous meeting this season at Miami only saw a combined score of 170. I just think there's too much value here with the total over 200. UNDER is 12-2 in the Heat's last 14 road games as a favorite of 3 or less, 11-2 in their last 13 road games when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-3-2 in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central. UNDER is also 9-2-2 in the Bucks last 13 against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points and 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against Miami. Take the UNDER! |
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03-09-16 | Minnesota v. Illinois -8.5 | 52-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational No-Doubt BLOWOUT on Illinois - If you haven't been following Minnesota closely down the stretch, this is going to seem like a big number for Illinois to be laying against the Gophers. However, it's for good reason. Minnesota is without 5 of their top 6 scorers. Kevin Dorsey, Nate Mason and Dupree McBrayer were all suspended for the season. They also lost Joey King to a broken foot and Carlos Morris has been dismissed. The Gophers have just 8 players available and 3 of them or walk-ons. Head coach Richard Pitino had this to say after Minnesota's 23-point loss to Rutgers, "It is next to impossible right now with the situation we were dealt to score points. With Joey (King) we could play small, but his injury was the icing on the cake." Keep in mind that Rutgers was 0-17 in conference play and had lost to the Gophers by 22-points prior to King's injury and the 3 players getting suspended. Minnesota just wants this season to be over with and I just don't see them being able to keep it competitive against a hungry Illinois team that is going to be motivated to advance to Thursday's action. Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games against a team that's won between 20% and 40% of their games and have won these contests by 18.7 ppg.Gophers are also just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 60 points or less in 2 straight games. Lay the points! |
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03-09-16 | NC State v. Duke -8 | 89-92 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Conference Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Duke - The Blue Devils should have no problem cashing in a win and cover against NC State in the 2nd round of the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack had to play yesterday, while Duke enjoyed a first round bye. NC State used up a ton of energy in a hard fought 75-72 win over Wake Forest and I just don't see them having the energy to keep pace with the Blue Devils. Keep in mind that the Wolfpack don't have a lot of depth. Only 7 players played against the Demon Deacons and one of the reserves logged just 6 minutes. That's a recipe for disaster against a Duke team that is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing their regular season finale at home to rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils won both meetings in the regular season by at least 8 and I fully expect a double-digit blowout in this one. Keep in mind they played in last year's ACC Tournament and Duke won 77-53 as a 9-point favorite. It's also important to note that of the Wolfpack's 6 conference wins in the regular season, only 1 came on the road. This is not a team that travels well. NC State is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against at team what's won more than 60% of their games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win. Lay the points! |
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03-08-16 | Hawks v. Jazz UNDER 192 | 91-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Jazz UNDER I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Jazz and Hawks. Both teams have really been playing well on the defensive side of the ball here of late. Atlanta is only giving up 89.4 ppg over their last 5 and Utah has held each of their last 2 opponents to 94. Keep in mind the Jazz only give up an average of 94.3 ppg at home on the season. Both teams also come into this game off a 2 day break, which should have both bringing the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. This is also a big game for both teams. Atlanta is just 3-games ahead of 9th place Detroit, while the Jazz are 1.5 back of 8th place Houston for the final spot in the west. These two teams combined for 193 points in Atlanta back on 11/15, barely eclipsing the total of 192. That was with both teams shooting lights out from the field. The Hawks hit 48.7% of their attempts, while Utah hit 51.3%. That's a good sign we will see a much lower scoring game in the rematch. UNDER is 16-4 in Utah's last 20 home games against teams who average 21 or fewer free throws/game, 24-11 in their last 35 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7 in their last 27 home games against a team from the east. UNDER is also 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 after scoring 100 or more points and 7-3 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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03-08-16 | Gonzaga -2 v. St. Mary's | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Gonzaga/St. Mary's NCAAB *BEST BET* on Gonzaga - I backed the Bulldogs with success last night in their win over BYU and I'm jumping right back on the train with Gonzaga as a small favorite against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs are really clicking offensively right now. Gonzaga has scored 92 and 88 points in their first two games of the WCC Tournament, which is important to note. St Mary's won both of the regular season meetings, but were fortunate to do so in both. They won by 3-points at home after trailing by 8 at the half. They then won by 5 at Gonzaga thanks to the Bulldogs shooting just 35.5% from the field and 19.2% from behind the 3-point line. Beating a top level team like Gonzaga 3 times in the same season is extremely difficult to do and I look for the Bulldogs to get their revenge and punch an automatic ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The most recent loss in this series was a home and that sets up the Bulldogs in a great situation. Gonzaga is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games when revenging a loss as a home favorite. Bulldogs are also 30-16 ATS in their last 46 after two straight games with a combined score of 155 or more and have won these by an average of 14.4 ppg. Lay the points! |
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03-07-16 | BYU v. Gonzaga -3 | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
4* BYU/Gonzaga Late-Night Vegas Insider on Gonzaga - The Bulldogs are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and the only way to make sure they get included in the field of 68, is win the West Coast Conference Tournament. They got off to a strong start with a 92-67 win against Portland on Saturday. Gonzaga is now 10-2 in their last 12 games, with the only two losses come at SMU and at home against St. Mary's. Gonzaga's went 15-3 inside conference play and their only 4 losses outside of the conference were against Texas A&M (61-62), Arizona (63-68), UCLA (66-71) and SMU (60-69). Overall the Bulldogs haven't lost a game all season by more than 9 points and could easily be sitting with just 2 or 3 losses instead of 7. The Bulldogs did lose at home to BYU 68-69 back in early January, but returned the favor with a 71-68 win at BYU in the regular season finale. In both games against the Cougars, Gonzaga's defense was on point. They held BYU to 36.8% shooting in the first meeting and 32.8% in the rematch. I believe the Bulldogs are one of the more underrated teams in the country and we are simply getting too good of a price to pass up. Gonzaga is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 semi-final matchups in tournament play on the road, while BYU is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 tournament games overall and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when listed as a dog of 3 or less in a neutral court contest. Lay the points! |
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03-07-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -7 | Top | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls - Chicago finds themselves sitting tied with the Pistons for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls had really been struggling with injuries and as a result were just 3-9 in their previous 12 before knocking off the Rockets at home 108-100 on Saturday. That win over Houston marked the return of Jimmy Butler. With Chicago finally starting to get healthy and their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Bulls to go on a big run down the stretch. Either way, this is a great spot to back Chicago at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee is not a great road team. The Bucks are just 8-25 away from home. Making matters worse, is the fact that Milwaukee will be playing on no rest after a big home game yesterday against the Thunder, which they lost 96-104. Five different players logged 30+ minutes, with Parker, Antetokounmpo and Middleton all playing 36 or more. I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 60 or more in the 1st half of their last game. Lay the points! |
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03-07-16 | Grizzlies +12.5 v. Cavs | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies + I believe we are seeing some great value here with Memphis based on the recent results of these two teams. The Grizzlies just got embarrassed on their home floor yesterday by the Suns 100-109 as a 9.5-point favorite. Cleveland on the other hand comes in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Wizards (108-83) and Celtics (120-103). Key thing to keep in mind with the Cavaliers two impressive wins over Washington and Boston, is they were out for revenge in both of the games, as they had lost at home to Boston on 2/5 and at Washington by 14 on 2/28. Now it's Memphis that will be using the revenge angle to their benefit. While it came all the way back in their season-opener, the Grizzlies haven't forgot about the 30-point embarrassment they suffered at home at the hands of the Cavaliers. Grizzlies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 games played on Monday, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-3 ATS in their last 4 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points. Take the points! |
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03-06-16 | Mavs -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit *BEST BET* on Mavs - The Mavericks are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Dallas has won 4 straight in the series and Denver is headed in the wrong direction. The Nuggets have lost 6 of their last 8, including an ugly home loss to the Nets last time out. Things don't figure to get better for Denver with Danilo Gallinari still sidelined and the Mavericks can't afford to lose this game in the playoff race. This is also a big bounce back game for Dallas, as they come in off a 101-104 loss at home to the Kings as a 6.5-point favorite. Offensively the Mavericks have been lights out, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. Denver has allowed 100+ in 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. The Nuggets come in giving up 106.5 ppg. With Dallas playing on 2 days rest, I just don't see Denver being able to make enough stops here to keep this game close. Mavericks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games after 4 straight game where both teams scored 100+ points, 18-9 ATS in their last 27 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Lay the points! |
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03-06-16 | Temple -6 v. Tulane | 64-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB AAC Game of the Week on Temple - With a win the Owls can clinch at least a share of the AAC regular season title and if SMU were to lose at Cincinnati they would take home the outright title. That's more than enough motivation for Temple to go on the road and take care of business by 7 or more points against Tulane. The Green Wave have been in a free fall to close out the season, losing 4 straight and 14 of their last 17 overall. Every one of those 14 losses during this stretch have come by at least 6 points, which is a good indicator that if Temple does their job they win here by more than the number. The Owls have won 8 of their last 10, including an impressive 10-point win at home against Memphis last time out. Tulane will be playing their final home game, which can often be a big positive, but that's not the case here. The Green Wave are just 6-9 at home and are simply outclassed in this one. Temple is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a win by 10 or more and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against at team with a losing home record. Tulane is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 against at team with a winning record, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after losing 4 of their last 5. Lay the points! |
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03-05-16 | VCU v. Dayton -2 | 67-68 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Limit Vegas Insider on Dayton - The Flyers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against VCU. Dayton is simply getting zero respect from the books right now, as they haven't covered the spread in 7 straight games. I look for that to change in a big way, as this is a statement game for Dayton at home against the Rams. The Flyers have dropped 2 straight at home after opening the season 13-1 on their home floor. VCU is a quality team, but not nearly as good on the road as they are at home, where they finished up with a 15-2 record. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Rams, as they really put a lot into their home finale against Davidson last time out. There's also a little extra incentive here for the Flyers, as they can bring home a share of the A-10 title with a win. Lay the points! |
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03-05-16 | Nets v. Wolves -5 | 118-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night NO BRAINER on Timberwolves - The Timberwolves are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is in an awful spot for this matchup. The Nets had to go to overtime last night to pull out a 121-120 win at Denver and now find themselves playing on no rest in what will be their 7th straight road game in a span of just 12 days. Keep in mind it's extremely hard to bounce back after playing a game in the thin air of Denver and overtime makes it that much harder. Prior to beating the Nuggets, Brooklyn on the road to the Lakers by 6 and Minnesota is a more talented team. The Timberwolves have a lot of young and explosive players who are going to be able to take advantage of the tired legs of the Nets. You also have to factor in that Brooklyn is just 7-22 on the road this season. The Nets are just 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games when playing 6 or more games in a span of just 10 days, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playing on 0 days of rest. Lay the points! |
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03-05-16 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech - The Red Raiders are showing exceptional value here at home against the Wildcats. Texas Tech is on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and simply can't afford to lose this game. That's not the only reason we can count on the Red Raiders to bring one of their best efforts of the season. Texas Tech will be highly motivated off back-to-back ugly losses to Kansas and West Virginia (both on the road) and will also be out for revenge from an ugly 13-point loss at Kansas State. Prior to dropping back-to-back games on the road to the Jayhawks and Mountaineers, the Red Raiders were playing as well as any team in the conference. Texas Tech has won 5 straight, which included impressive home wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma and a big road win over Baylor. Kansas State comes into this game off a 25-point blowout win at home against TCU, which is definitely playing into this number. However, that was a golden spot for the Wildcats. The Horned Frogs are awful on the road and no reason for them to get up for a below average team like Kansas State. On the flip side, the Wildcats were playing their final home game, so they gave max effort. Now it's Tech playing their home finale and I look for an easy win for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 home games off a loss by 15 or more and 24-11 ATS in their last 35 after playing 2 straight on the road. Red Raiders are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Kansas State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Lay the points! |
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03-05-16 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Georgia Tech Pick'em The Yellow Jackets are showing great value here at home against the Panthers. Georgia Tech comes in off a hard fought 53-56 loss at Louisville as a 12-point underdog, continuing their impressive play down the stretch. Prior to that defeat the Yellow Jackets had won 4 straight. Pittsburgh had that big win at home against Duke in their home finale, but following it up with a 61-65 loss at Virginia Tech. The Panthers are now just 4-6 in their last 10 and are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when listed as a pick'em or favorite and just 5-13 ATS in their lsat 18 road games overall. The Panthers are also just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 65 or less in 2 straight games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ after 15+ games. Georgia Tech on the other hand is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against strong rebounding teams who are outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. Take the Yellow Jackets! |
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03-05-16 | West Virginia v. Baylor -2.5 | 69-58 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No-Doubt Heavy Hitter on Baylor - The Bears are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is simply getting to much respect on the road due to having won 3 straight and being ranked in the Top 10. The Mountaineers simply don't have a lot to gain with a win in this one, as Kansas has already locked up the Big 12 regular season title. I just don't see West Virginia being able to match the intensity of the Bears, who will be extremely motivated off a heartbreaking 71-73 loss at Oklahoma and this being their final home game of the season. Baylor has a big home court edge, as they are 14-4 at home. West Virginia is a respectable 10-5 on the road, but have struggled against the top teams away from home. This is also a big revenge game for Baylor, who got embarrassed by 11-points at West Virginia earlier this season. Keep in mind that prior to that defeat, the Bears had won the previous 4 games in this series. Mountaineers are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games after 3 or more conference wins. Lay the points! |
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03-04-16 | Wizards v. Cavs -8 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational *BEST BET* on Cavs - The Cavaliers are going to be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Wizards, who they just lost to at Washington by 14-points on Sunday. Keep in mind that win for the Wizards came with LeBron James sitting out due to rest. This is a statement game for the Cavaliers as they are just 2-3 in their last 5 overall. We can count on a max effort here from Cleveland. Not only will the Cavaliers be motivated with revenge, but they come into this game having had the last 3 days off. Even more incentive is that this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Washington has won 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall, but 5 of those wins came at home and the two on the road were against the 76ers and Timberwolves. Wizards will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days, which is no easy task on the road. Wizards are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 11-22 ATS in their last 33 off a road win. Washington is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Lay the points! |
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03-04-16 | Knicks +9.5 v. Celtics | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Knicks + The perception is that the Knicks are a complete mess right now and the betting public wants nothing to do with them because of it. I believe it's created some big time value on New York in tonight's game against the Celtics. Oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this line given how well Boston has been playing at home, but this isn't a great spot for the Celtics. With a much bigger road game on deck tomorrow at Cleveland, it's going to be hard for Boston to get up for this game. New York on the other hand is going to come out extremely motivated. This division matchup is a bigger rivalry than you might think. Boston has won 3 of the last 4, but all 3 wins have come by fewer than the number listed here. I look for the Knicks to put up a big enough fight here to keep this close enough to cover. New York is a solid 24-15 ATS in their last 39 when revenging a loss and favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have won between 51% to 60% of their games and off a a home win by 10 or more are just 28-54 (34%) ATS over the last 5 seasons against a team with a losing record. That's a 66% system in favor of the Knicks. Take the points! |
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03-04-16 | Missouri State v. Evansville -11.5 | 56-66 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
4* Missouri Valley Tournament NO BRAINER on Evansville - The Purple Aces should have no problem covering this big number against Missouri State. Evansville received a first round bye in the MVC Tournament and that's a big advantage. The Bears had to play last night and barely escaped with a 69-67 win over Drake. Playing on no rest will be too much for Missouri State to overcome. This is also a bad matchup for the Bears. Evansville won 76-59 at Missouri State on 1/2 and followed that up with a 83-64 win at home on 2/6. In both meetings the Purple Aces held the Bears under 35% shooting. Evansville had won 4 straight prior to suffering a heartbreaking 52-54 loss to Northern Iowa in their regular season finale, so the Purple Aces enter tournament play with some confidence. Their NCAA Tournament lives are also at stake, as they must win MVC to earn an automatic bid. Missouri State is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog of 10 or more, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a conference win and 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Evansville is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 3 points or less. Lay the points! |
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03-03-16 | Connecticut v. SMU -5.5 | Top | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
5* American Athletic Game of the Month on SMU - The Mustangs have put together a tremendous season, despite the fact that they are not eligible for postseason play. SMU has gone 24-4 and come into this game riding a 3-game winning streak. The only thing left for the Mustangs to play for is a conference title and right now they are tied with Temple on top the standings. This is also a big game for several of the SMU players, as this will be their final home game of the season. Connecticut comes in trying to fight out of slump. The Huskies have lost 2 of 3, including an ugly 68-75 home loss to Houston last time out. Connecticut was able to hold on for a 68-62 win at home over SMU back on 2/18, which also plays into the favor of the Mustangs, as they will be out for revenge. Huskies are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games with a total set at 130 to 134.5 points. SMU on the other hand is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with a total of 130 to 134.5. Lay the points! |
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03-03-16 | Suns v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Suns/Heat UNDER I believe we are seeing an inflated total here based on what took place in the last game for both of these teams. Phoenix allowed 126 points in a 92-126 loss at Charlotte, going over the total set of 210. Miami poured in 129 points on a ridiculous 67.5% shooting in a 129-111 win over the Bulls, easily eclipsing the total of 201.5. Oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this total, but the value is with the under. I'm confident Miami won't be shooting near 68% from the field in this one. While Phoenix is not a great defensive team, I look for Miami to struggle to bring the focus and energy against a bad team like the Suns. Keep in mind the Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. Phoenix on the other hand should come out inspired on the defensive end. As bad as they have been playing, they have continued to play hard and this is a prime bounce back spot after that ugly loss to the Hornets. Offensively the Suns figure to struggle. Phoenix ranks 28th in offensive efficiency and Miami ranks 6th in defensive efficiency. UNDER is 20-9 in the Heat's last 29 after playing their previous game at home, 16-2 in their last 18 after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more and 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Suns last 28 road games after a combined score of 205 or more in their last 2 games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! |
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03-03-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -5 | 97-94 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB C-USA Game of the Week on Marshall - The Thundering Herd are showing some great value here at home against the Bulldogs. Marshall comes into this game off back-to-back road losses to UAB and Middle Tennessee, which is definitely helping this line. The Thundering Herd are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. Marshall is 6-1 on their home floor inside conference play with the only loss coming against conference leader UAB (3-game lead over next best team) by just 3 points. All 6 wins have come by double-digits. Louisiana Tech has an overall record of 22-7, while Marshall is just 15-14, but both teams are an identical 11-5 inside conference play. The Bulldogs are simply getting to much respect here. They are just 1-2 in their last 3 road games, losing by 11 at both UTEP and North Texas. The win coming against the worst team in the conference in UTSA. Marshall is 32-16 ATS in their last 48 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and a perfect 6-0 TS in their last 6 when they have lost 2 of their last 3. Louisiana Tech is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 off a win, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 2 straight as a home favorite and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 or more. Lay the points! |
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03-02-16 | Oregon State v. USC -5.5 | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late-Night BAILOUT on USC - The Trojans come into this game having lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, which has put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy. It also has USC way undervalued here at home against the Beavers. Of their 5 losses during their current skid, 4 have come on the road, where they are just 4-9 on the season. The other was a home against one of the Pac-12 powers in Utah. That loss to the Utes was the Trojans only defeat at home this season, as they are a dominant 15-1 at the Galen Center. This is the definition of a must-win game, as they have league leader Oregon on deck. Oregon State comes in off back-to-back wins, but both of those came at home. The Beavers are just 1-6 on the road in Pac-12 play with all 6 losses coming by at least 6 points. At the same time, USC's only home win by fewer than 7 points was against Arizona. Oregon State is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference road games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home win. Lay the points! |
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03-02-16 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pacers - The Pacers are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Bucks. Indiana will be in desperation mode after losing 3 straight and I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match that intensity. The Bucks pulled off a big home win over the Rockets as a 3-point dog last time out, but also lost their previous game at home to the Pistons by 11. Indiana is just 8-8 in their last 16 games, which is nothing to get excited about. However, their losses have all come against teams who are currently in the playoff picture. Milwaukee is 6-games out of 8th place in the east, so they clearly aren't in that mix. This is also a big revenge game for Indiana, who lost at home 116-120 in the most recent meeting. Pacers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 after losing 3 of their last 4, 26-12 ATS in their last 38 road games off a road loss to a division opponent and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games versus division foes. Milwaukee is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games off a home win and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a game where they scored 125 or more points. Lay the points! |
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03-02-16 | Blazers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Celtics - The Trail Blazers come into this game having won 3 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. Portland is also an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10. This might seem like a fair number to back the Blazers on the road against the Celtics, but this is a horrible spot for Portland. Not only will the Trail Blazers be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 days overall. At the same time, it's not like Boston hasn't been playing well of late. The Celtics have won 3 straight and are 14-4 in their last 18. Boston has been especially good at home, where they have won 11 straight. The Celtics will simply be the much fresher team in this one. Boston had yesterday off and this will be their 4th straight at home. Trail Blazers are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 3 straight non-conference games and 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Boston is 12-3 ATS this season in games with a total of 210 or more, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 6-1 in their last 7 off 1 day of rest and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! |
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03-02-16 | Texas Tech +10 v. West Virginia | 68-90 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational Dog of the Week on Texas Tech + This is too many points for the Mountaineers to be laying at home against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is playing as well as any team in the Big 12 not named Kansas right now. They had won 5 straight prior to a 58-67 defeat at Kansas last time out, which they easily covered as a 13.5-point dog. During their 5-game winning streak they won at Baylor 84-66 and at Oklahoma State 71-61. West Virginia is an impressive 12-2 at home and will be playing their final home game of the season, which I believe is a big reason for this inflated line. What is getting overlooked here is this being a bit of a letdown for the Mountaineers, who no longer have a shot at earning a share of the Big 12 title after Kansas' win at Texas on Monday. West Virginia did win 80-76 at Texas Tech back on 1/23, but the Red Raiders actually had a 4-point lead with less than a minute to play. That was back when Texas Tech was struggling. This is a different team right now and I wouldn't be shocked if they got their revenge and pulled off the upset. Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Big 12 overall. Texas Tech is also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after a game in which they covered the spread. It's also worth noting that the road team has covered 8 of the last 9 in the series. Take the points! |
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03-02-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Notre Dame -2.5 | 68-50 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Notre Dame - Not only is this a great price to back the Irish at home, but a great spot as well. Notre Dame is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 56-77 road loss to Florida State. A game they were favored to win by 3-points. While you would expect a better effort than what they gave against the Seminoles, keep in mind that the Irish are just 6-8 on the road compared to a dominant 13-1 at home. Notre Dame is 9-4 in their last 13 and all 4 losses have come on the road. Not only are we getting great value here due to how bad the Irish looked last time out, but Miami is getting all kinds of love here after back-to-back home wins over Virginia and Louisville. While it looks impressive on paper, Miami is 15-1 at home, so that's nothing to get excited about. Last time the Hurricanes played on the road they were embarrassed in a 25-points loss to North Carolina. They also have lost by 8+ on the road against the likes of NC State, Clemson and Virginia. Notre Dame is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home. Miami on the other hand is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Lay the points! |
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03-01-16 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 210.5 | 101-107 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Lakers OVER I'm not expecting much defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the league's worst teams in the Lakers and the Nets. Both of these teams have struggled defensively this year. Brooklyn comes in allowing 103.6 ppg with opponents shooting on average 47.0% from the field. Los Angeles is even worse, giving up 107.2 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field. Brooklyn just played last night against the Clippers and were competitive for the most part in a 95-105 defeat. While the Nets won't be traveling for this game, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights and 5th straight on the road overall. Brooklyn has allowed 105+ in 3 of their 4 road games during this stretch so far with the only exception coming against the Jazz. They combined for 222 in a 116-106 win at Phoenix, who I would compare with the talent the Lakers have. Los Angeles hasn't been playing any defense since returning from the All-Star break. They have allowed at least 108 points in 6 straight games. The key here is they have scored 101+ points in 5 of those 6, going over 110 in 4. The Lakers come into this game off 3 days of rest and that should allow them to take advantage of the tired legs the Nets will be dealing with in this spot. These two teams combined for 202 points back on Nov. 6th and that was with both teams not shooting well from the field or the 3-point line. OVER is 10-1 in the Nets last 11 off a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record and 9-3 in their last 12 against the Western Conference. OVER is also 27-9-2 in the Lakers last 38 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER! |
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03-01-16 | Indiana v. Iowa -4 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit *BEST BET* on Iowa - The Hawkeyes are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Iowa has stumbled of late with 3 straight loss and have failed to cover 5 in a row. That's a big reason why we are getting a favorable line with the Hawkeyes at home. What gets overlooked is that Iowa could have easily won each of their last 3 games, as they were right there with a chance to win late. I look for an inspired effort here from the Hawkeyes in their home finale, as Iowa sends out 4 senior starters. The Hawkeyes are also a dominant 13-1 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 78-85 loss at Indiana. The Hoosiers are 5-3 on the road in the Big Ten, but those 5 wins have come against Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois. Indiana is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win by 10 or more points, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after covering 2 of their last 3, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after a blowout win by 20 or more. Iowa is 8-1 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts and a perfect 6-0 in this spot after 15+ games. Lay the points! |
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03-01-16 | Dayton -1.5 v. Richmond | 85-84 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAAB Situational NO BRAINER on Dayton - The Flyers are showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Spiders. Dayton is simply undervalued right now due to the fact that they have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games and are coming off an ugly 66-75 home loss to Rhode Island as a 7-point favorite. This has the Flyers in a prime bounce back spot on the road, where they have gone an impressive 9-3 this season and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning home record. Richmond comes in off a 83-67 win at Duquesne, but had lost 3 straight prior to that. The Spiders are just 2-4 in their last 6 home games and mere 9-6 overall. Richmond will be playing their 3rd game in a week span and are just 3-11 ATS in this situation over the last 2 seasons. The Spiders are also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 as an underdog, 1-4 AS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Lay the points! |
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02-29-16 | 76ers +12.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on 76ers + Philadelphia is showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Wizards. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this month. Washington won by 12-points at home as a 9-point favorite back on 2/5 and then by 9-points as a 7-point favorite at Philadelphia last Friday. We are simply seeing an overreaction here based on how both teams performed yesterday. Washington beat the Cavaliers 113-99, while the 76ers lost 116-30 at Orlando. Even though the Wizards win over Cleveland came without LeBron James, they were emotionally invested in that game. I just don't see Washington being all that interested with this matchup against Philadelphia. Keep in mind that this is only the second time all season the Wizards have been favored by double-digits. The previous time was at home agains the Lakers, where they lost outright 104-108 as a 10-point favorite. Wizards are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win by more than 10-points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when facing an opponent who scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and 0-3 ATS this season after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the points! |
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02-28-16 | Heat v. Knicks UNDER 198 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/Heat UNDER I really like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's game between the Heat and Knicks. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 96.9 ppg, and are going to have to rely on that defense on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set. Knicks have scored 100+ in two straight, but are only averaging 99.4 ppg on the season. New York has started to show signs of life in their last two games and held the Magic to just 95 points on 41.9% shooting in their last game. Miami's offense is not great. The Heat only average 93.9 ppg and the offense will be adjusting to newly acquired Joe Johnson. It's also important to note that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in pace and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th. These two teams have played 3 times already this season and the most they have combined for is 188 points and two of the 3 saw fewer than 180 points. UNDER is 14-5 in the Heat's last 19 with a line of +3 to -3, 24-9 in their last 33 after allowing 100+ in two straight games and 21-9 in their last 30 revenging a home loss. UNDER is also 19-6-1 in the Knicks last 26 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 10 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 after covering the spread last time out. Take the UNDER! |
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02-28-16 | Valparaiso v. Green Bay +5.5 | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Green Bay + The Phoenix are showing great value here as a home dog against the Crusaders. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams, which is important to note. Valparaiso has already locked up the top spot in the Horizon League and it's going to be extremely hard for the Crusaders to take this game seriously. Valparaiso still needs to win the Horizon League Tournament to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, making this last game meaningless for the road team. Green Bay on the other hand is going to be looking to make a statement at home against the top team in the conference. The Phoenix have been playing extremely well of late, as they come in having won 4 straight. Green Bay is also a dominant 11-2 at home this season. We saw Valpo struggle in a similar spot last time out against Milwaukee, who is not as good as the Phoenix. The Crusaders needed overtime to win 80-76 as a 5-point road favorite. Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a home win where they scored 85 or more points and 58-38 ATS in their last 96 home games revenging a loss to an opponent. Valparaiso is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the points! |
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02-27-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | 121-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
3* Warriors/Thunder NBA Main Event on Thunder + As difficult as it is to go against the Warriors, I believe this is an ideal spot to fade Golden State. The Warriors are a tired team and will be playing their 6th straight road game since returning from the All-Star break. The Thunder gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 108-116 loss at Golden State back on 2/6. Oklahoma City is desperate to show they can hang with the Warriors and I look for them to treat this game as if it was Game 7 of a playoff series. The Warriors on the other hand simply don't have enough gas left in the tank to match that kind of intensity. This game also isn't as important to them as it is OKC. Keep in mind that the Warriors get to host the Thunder next Thursday, which takes away some of the incentive for them to lay it all on the line in this one. Golden State is just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Thunder are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Take the points! |
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02-27-16 | Wolves v. Pelicans -5 | 112-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NBA No-Doubt BLOWOUT on Pelicans - New Orleans is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pelicans may come in with a mere 23-24 record, but they have been trending in the right direction of late. New Orleans has won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight at home. This is a team that still believes they can get back to the playoffs and understand that they can't afford to lose at home to a bad team like Minnesota. The Timberwolves are just 8-20 on the road this season, but have covered their last two games against the Celtics and Raptors, two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. I just don't see Minnesota being able to match the intensity of the Pelicans and it's worth noting that New Orleans has owned the Timberwolves in recent matchups. The Pelicans have won 7 straight in the series with all 7 wins coming by at least 7 points. Each of the last 4 have been decided by 12 or more with the last two at home coming by a combined 37 points. New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Northwest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 1 day of rest. Minnesota is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 against a team with a losing record and 14-27 ATS in their last 41 after covering 2 or more games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 110 or more in 2 straight games. Lay the points! |
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02-27-16 | Maryland v. Purdue -3.5 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Purdue - The Boilermakers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Terrapins. Maryland beat Purdue 72-61 at home back on 2/6, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. In fact, the Boilermakers actually led by 4-points with 6 minutes to go. Not only is Purdue going to be highly motivated to get their revenge, but they also will be focused and ready to go at home off a heartbreaking 73-77 loss at rival Indiana last time out. Add in the fact that the Boilermakers haven't played since last Saturday and we can expect to see an all-out effort here. Keep in mind that Purdue is a dominant 15-1 at home this season and while the Terrapins are 8-4 on the road, they have had a number of close calls go their way away from home. Purdue is a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 revenging a road loss of 10 or more points, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 off a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Maryland. is 1-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 85+ points in their previous game. Lay the points! |
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02-27-16 | Louisville v. Miami (Fla) -3.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami - The Hurricanes are showing exceptional value here against the Cardinals. Miami and Louisville both sit tied for 2nd in the ACC standings at 11-4, but the big difference is that only the Hurricanes are eligible for postseason play. I know Louisville has been playing well since the ban was put in place, but they are getting too much respect here on the road. Louisville lost at Duke 65-72 and at Notre Dame 66-71 in their first two road games after the ban was announced. They they won two straight at home before going on the road to beat Pitt last time out. That win over the Panthers was their only conference road win against a team with a winning conference record and Pitt is just 8-7. Miami is 14-1 at home with a perfect record at home inside ACC play. Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Louisville is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7. Add it up and that's a perfect 19-0 system backing Miami! Laying the points! |
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02-27-16 | Ole Miss v. Georgia -3.5 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird NO BRAINER on Georgia - The Bulldogs are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Rebels. Georgia is simply getting undervalued here due to having lost 3 straight. Two of those came on the road where they are just 2-12 on the season and the other was at home against Florida by just 4-points. This is a big time statement game for Georgia and I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into a blowout. Ole Miss comes in having won two straight, which is helping the number here, but those two wins have come against the two worst teams in the SEC in Auburn and Missouri. The Rebels are just 2-6 in their last 8 road games and the two lone wins have come against none other than Auburn and Missouri. Ole Miss is also in a tough spot here. Georgia isn't exactly a team worth getting excited about, especially considering they pulled out a 72-71 win at home over the Bulldogs. On top of that, this is a huge lookahead spot for Ole Miss, as they host in-state rival Mississippi State in their home finale next time out. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 58-37 ATS in their last 95 home games as a favorite of 6 or less and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after going over the total in 2 or more consecutive games. Lay the points! |
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02-26-16 | Nuggets v. Mavs -5 | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Mavericks - Dallas is showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. The Mavericks are simply undervalued right now due to having lost 6 of their last 8. They also come in off an ugly 13-point home loss to the Thunder. On the flip side of this, the Nuggets are getting some love from the books off a 87-81 win at the Clippers as a 11-point underdog. That was a fluke win more than anything, as the Clippers shot a miserable 35.3% from the field. Prior to that, Denver had lost each of their first 3 games after the All-Star break and I just don't see the energy being there for this one. Keep in mind the Nuggets will being playing their 2nd straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Mavericks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against at team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is just 2-7 ATS this season off an upset win as a road dog. Lay the points! |
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02-26-16 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 97-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER The Cavaliers lead the Eastern Conference with an overall record of 41-15, but the Raptors are within striking distance. Toronto is just 3-games back at 38-18. This is a statement game for both teams and I look for both to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. Both of these teams are very strong defensively. Cleveland comes in allowing just 95.4 ppg on the road, while the Raptors are giving up just 96.7 ppg at home. These two teams combined for 222 points in a 122-100 Cavaliers win at home back on 1/4. The total for that game was just 194. I know they flew over the mark, but a 14.5 point adjustment is too much! UNDER is 14-4 in the Raptors last 18 home games after playing in a game where 215 or more combined points were scored and 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 15-6 in Cleveland's last 21 against the Eastern Conference, 47-19 in their last 66 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100+ in their last contest. Take the UNDER! |
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02-26-16 | Magic v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Knicks - New York is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Magic. The Knicks have lost 9 of their last 10 overall, but I believe there is a lot of fight left in this team. They certainly came to play last time out at Indiana, where they lost by just 3-points as a 6-point dog. I look for New York to come out extremely motivated at home tonight, as they desperately need a win to get this thing headed back in the right direction. Luckily for the Knicks they catch the Magic in a tough spot. Orlando will be playing in the 2nd game of the a back-to-back set and are going to find it difficult to get excited about this matchup after laying it all on the line last night at home against the Warriors. A game they were competitive in up until late in the 4th quarter. Orlando also has to have some tired legs. Their last two games have seen combined scores of 239 and 244. Magic are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 125 or more. Knicks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent (2 straight losses) and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 off a road loss by 3-points or less. Lay the points! |
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02-25-16 | Nets v. Suns +2 | 116-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns + Phoenix comes into this game off a 40-point loss at the Clippers on Monday and have now lost 12 straight overall. As bad it looks for the Suns, I think they are showing great value here as a home dog against the Nets. Brooklyn is a mere 4-20 on the road this season and come in off a 104-112 loss at Portland on Tuesday. The Nets played well in that game, but keep in mind it was being televised on NBATV, so there was some incentive to show up. I don't see Brooklyn coming out with that same intensity against a Suns team that hasn't won since late January. Not only am I expecting Phoenix to come out inspired off that embarrassing loss to LA, but they also desperately want to get interim head coach Earl Watson his first win. The Nets only won by 3-points at home back on 12/01 against the Suns and that was with Brooklyn shooting 48.8% from the field. Phoenix has the bigs inside with Chandler and Len to keep Lopez in check and that's really the one guy you need to be able to stop to keep Brooklyn's offense in check. Nets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after covering last time out. Phoenix on the other hand is 8-1 ATS this season off a home loss by 15 or more points and have won these games by nearly 4.0 ppg. Take the points! |
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02-25-16 | UCLA v. California -6.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on California - This may seem like a big number for the Golden Bears to be laying against UCLA, but I actually think we are getting some great value here with California. The Golden Bears are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. In their last 3 home games they have beat Stanford by 15, Oregon by 20 and Oregon State by 12. They have won 5 straight overall and are just 1-game out of 1st place in the Pac-12. UCLA comes into this game off an impressive 77-53 win at home against Colorado as a mere 5-point favorite, which only makes the Bruins look that much more enticing with the line set here. However, UCLA is just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS on the road this season. We have seen the Bruins lose by 14 at Oregon and 19 at USC. UCLA is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after winning 2 of their previous 3 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games off a win. Overall the Bruins are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games. Cal is 10-1 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Lay the points! |
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02-25-16 | SMU -4.5 v. Memphis | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No-Doubt Rout on SMU - It's well known that the only thing SMU is playing for is a conference regular season title, as they are not eligible for postseason play. Right now the Mustangs sit a 1/2 game back of Temple in the AAC standings and simply can't afford to lose this game. I believe that's more than enough motivation for SMU to win and cover on the road against the Tigers. The Mustangs defeated Memphis 80-68 back on 1/30. While you could argue that the Tigers will be out for revenge, they have really struggled to match up with SMU over the last 2 seasons. The Mustangs have won 3 straight in the series and all 3 wins have come by at least 9 points. SMU held Memphis to just 32.8% shooting in the first meeting and had a 51-35 (+16) edge on the boards. That edge on the boards is something that should carry over to this game and that is more than enough reason to back the Mustangs with this small number on the road. Memphis is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games when listed as an underdog and have lost these games by nearly 10.0 ppg. The Tigers are also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Arizona v. Colorado +5.5 | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Colorado + The Buffaloes are showing big time value here as a decently priced home dog against the Wildcats. Colorado is a dominant 14-1 at home this season with the only loss coming by just 2-points against Utah. That defeat came back on 1/8 and the Buffaloes have since won 6 straight at home. Arizona is simply way overvalued right now due to having won 6 straight, but 4 of those 6 wins came at home. Their only legit road test during this stretch was at Washington and they only won by 5-points. Keep in mind the Wildcats have already lost at Cal, UCLA and USC and could find themselves looking past the Buffaloes to Saturday's huge road game at Utah, which has major implications for the Pac-12 regular season title. Arizona is just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games after a game where they only had 8 or fewer turnovers and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. Colorado is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games with a total of 140 to 149.5, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 Pac-12 games overall. Take the points! |
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02-24-16 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -8.5 | 58-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt BLOWOUT on South Carolina - This might seem like a big number for the Gamecocks to be laying against a Tennessee team that just defeated LSU 81-65 at home as a 3-point dog, but this line has been set for a reason. The Volunteers are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. Tennessee is 12-2 at home compared to a miserable 1-12 on the road. Making matters even worse for the Volunteers is the fact that they likely won't have the services of their best player. Kevin Punter is doubtful with a foot injury and he's one player Tennessee can't afford to lose. Punter not only leads the team with 22.2 ppg, but he's the heart and soul of this team. South Carolina isn't going to take the Volunteers lightly, regardless of who takes the floor, as Tennessee defeated the Gamecocks 78-69 back on 1/23. Revenge will be on the minds of South Carolina at home, where they are 14-1 this season. Given the likely absence of Punter and Tennessee's struggles on the road, this game has blowout written all over it! Volunteers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win against a conference opponent, while South Carolina is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 revenging a SU loss as a favorite. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -8 | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Insider on Grizzlies - I was on the wrong end of a horrible bad beat Tuesday with the Lakers losing by just 7-points after going into the 4th quarter down 25 against the Bucks as a 8-point dog. That isn't going to keep me from fading Los Angeles in a similar spot against the Grizzlies. Memphis is flying under the radar right now, as no one is really taking this team seriously since they loss Marc Gasol to a season-ending injury. I believe it has the Grizzlies playing with a chip on their shoulder and that's especially going to be the case after an embarrassing 13-point loss at Toronto last time out. Memphis won 112-96 at home against the Lakers back on 12/27 and it could have been an even bigger blowout, as the Grizzlies shot 56.2% from the field, while holding the Lakers to just 38.1%. I just don't see LA putting up much of a fight in this one, as they find themselves playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days. Keep in mind the Lakers are 5-28 on the road, getting outscored by 11.1 ppg on the season. Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +1.5 | 67-60 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
4* ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh + It's well known that Louisville is not eligible for postseason play, but with the Cardinals coming into this game off back-to-back impressive wins over Syracuse (72-58) and Duke (71-64), we are getting great value on the Panthers at home. Key thing to keep in mind is both of those wins came at home. Louisville lost both road games after the self-imposed ban was announced and are just 1-7 ATS in road games this season, including an 0-6 ATS record inside conference play. As of right now, Pittsburgh is safely in the field of 68, but it's not a sure thing just yet. A win over Louisville would really help the Panthers resume, plus this is a huge revenge game for Pittsburgh, who was embarrassed by 18-points at Louisville back on 1/14. Having already beat the Panthers by double-digits, there's really not a lot of the Cardinals to get excited about with this matchup. I look for Pittsburgh to be the much more motivated team and wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. Cardinals are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the points! |
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02-24-16 | North Carolina v. NC State +7 | 80-68 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational Oddsmakers Error on NC State + NC State is showing great value here as a relatively big home dog against in-state rival North Carolina. While the Wolfpack are just 4-10 inside ACC play they could be a lot better. NC State has 5 losses by 7-points or less in conference play and all but one of their defeats has come by 11 or fewer. That includes a 55-67 defeat at North Carolina back on 1/16. The fact that they were able to keep it respectable at North Carolina is a good sign, as the Tar Heels are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 ppg on the road. This is also a tough spot for North Carolina, who comes in off a huge 96-71 win at home against Miami and has a massive game on deck at Virginia. While NC State is just 1-2 in their last 3 home games against the Tar Heels, the two losses came by a combined 3-points, including a 1-point loss in overtime. North Carolina is 2-9 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference win by 20 or more points. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against at team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 revenging a same season loss. Take the points! |
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02-24-16 | Hornets v. Cavs -8 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Hardwood No Brainer on Cavs - The Cavaliers come into this game off an ugly 88-96 home loss to the Pistons as a 9-point favorite on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising to see Cleveland struggle in that game, as they really invested a lot the previous day in a 115-92 win at Oklahoma City. Regardless, it now has the Cavaliers poised for a huge bounce back performance at home against the Hornets. Not only is Cleveland going to be motivated after what took place against Detroit last time out, but they will also be out to make a statement against Charlotte, who defeated them 106-97 earlier this month. Last time the Hornets visited Cleveland, the Cavaliers cruised to a 129-90 blowout win as a 10-point favorite. I look for a very similar type of outcome in this one, as Charlotte is just 10-17 on the road. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ rebounds/game are 152-101 (60%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Lay the points! |
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02-24-16 | Villanova v. Xavier -1.5 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on Xavier - The Musketeers went on the road and were embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in the conference opener back on 12/31. Needless to say, Xavier has had this game circled on their calendar ever since that defeat. The Musketeers have gone an impressive 12-2 since that loss and come in having won 3 straight by at least 14-points. All 3 of those wins have come against stiff competition. They beat Butler by 17 on the road, Providence by 11 at home and Georgetown by 18 on the road. Villanova is the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which hasn't exactly been a blessing this season. The Wildcats come in having won 7 straight and are 11-2 on the road, but have had some close calls away from home against inferior teams than the Xavier. The Musketeers are 13-1 at home and will be the more motivated team in this one. Favorites is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games in this series, while Xavier is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less. That's a perfect 24-0 (100%) system backing the Musketeers. Lay the Points! |
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02-23-16 | Nets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER. This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER! |
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02-23-16 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 | 124-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER The books have set the bar too high for tonight's contest between the Magic and 76ers and it's time to take advantage. These two teams played back on 1/20 and combined for just 183 points in a 96-87 76ers win at Orlando. Overall each of the last 7 and 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the posted total for this matchup. Keep in mind that Orlando only averages 97.7 ppg on the road, while Philadelphia is scoring just 96.2 ppg at home. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. The Magic are connecting on just 44.8% of their field goal attempts and the 76ers are at just 43.5%. UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 road games off a loss by 3-points or less, 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is also 8-2 in the 76ers last 10 against a team with a losing record and 21-8 in their last 29 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. We'll take the UNDER! |
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02-23-16 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -4.5 | 87-74 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
4* SEC Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida - Florida comes into this contest off a 69-73 overtime loss at South Carolina, where they failed to cover the spread as a 2.5-point dog. The Gators are now just 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which I believe has them showing some big time value here at home against Vanderbilt, who is being overvalued off a 13-point win and cover at home against Georgia. Florida is a dominant 12-2 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 15.1 ppg, while the Commodores are just 2-8 in their last 10 true road games. Gators also have revenge on their minds from a heartbreaking 59-60 loss at Vanderbilt, where they shot a miserable 32.9% from the field. Florida head coach Mike White is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less and 13-4 ATS in his last 17 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. Gators are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%, while Vanderbilt is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a game where they covered the spread. We'll lay the number behind this 43-8 ATS system! |
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02-22-16 | Iowa State +5.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* Iowa St/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa St - Iowa State is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the struggling Mountaineers. West Virginia has lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 overall, including an ugly 62-76 home loss to Oklahoma last time out. Iowa State simply isn't getting a lot of respect right now, as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. This line is also inflated due to the fact that the Cyclones lost at home 76-81 to the Mountaineers as a 5-point favorite. Prior to that defeat, Iowa State had won each of the previous 3 meetings in the series, including a 74-72 win at West Virginia as a 4.5-point dog in their last trip to Morgantown. Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Cyclones are 58-38 ATS in their last 96 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Monday. Take Iowa State! |
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02-22-16 | Lakers v. Bucks -8 | 101-108 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Bucks - This is going to seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home against the Lakers, who have covered 6 of their last 7, but this is a horrible spot for Los Angeles. The Lakers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous two were at home against the Spurs and at Chicago. Those are two teams worth getting up for and I just don't see LA coming out with any energy or motivation in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set against the Bucks. Milwaukee on the other hand is coming off a 117-109 upset win at Atlanta and I look for them to carry over that momentum at home, where they are a solid 15-9 on the season. Bucks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game, 21-8 ATS in their last 28 after playing their last game as a road dog and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when playing 3 games in 4 days. Bucks are also a dominant 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against a team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! |
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02-21-16 | Loyola-Chicago v. Missouri State -2.5 | 75-62 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Missouri St - The Bears are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Ramblers, as we are seeing a big overreaction to both of these teams last game. Loyola-Chicago upset a red-hot Northern Iowa team 59-56 as a 4.5-point home dog, while Missouri State got embarrassed by 31-points in a 68-99 loss at Wichita State. The Ramblers also come in having covered 4 straight, which is definitely playing into this small number. The key here is we have Loyola in a huge letdown spot after that big home win and the Bears primed for a max effort at home off that ugly loss. Keep in mind that the Ramblers are just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season. Loyola is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as a home dog, while the Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference loss by 20 or more points. Take Missouri State! |
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02-21-16 | Pelicans v. Pistons -5 | 111-106 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout on Pistons - We are getting some great value here on the Pistons at home against the Pelicans. Detroit has been a money-making machine at home when laying points, as they are 13-4 ATS on the season when listed as a home favorite. We can expect a max effort here from the Pistons after an ugly 86-98 loss at Washington in their first game back from the All-Star break. That defeat was Detroit's 4th straight loss overall and for a team that is fighting to make the playoffs, this is a game they desperately need to win. New Orleans won 121-114 at home against the 76ers on Friday, but this is not a team that is built to do a whole lot down the stretch. The Pelicans have had a difficult time playing well against the Eastern Conference, as they are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing 4 of their last 5, winning by an average of 12.1 ppg and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! |
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02-21-16 | Cavs v. Thunder -3 | Top | 115-92 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
5* Cavs/Thunder NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder - Oklahoma City comes into this game off a heartbreaking 98-101 home loss to the Pacers (I cashed my underdog GOM on Indiana +9 in that game). Now it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot at home against the surging Cavaliers, who have won 4 straight. That loss to the Pacers was only the 6th time all season OKC was defeated on their home floor, as they are 25-6. The Thunder are simply not getting the respect they deserve in this game, in large part due to the Cavaliers riding that 4-game winning streak and having won 9 of their last 11 overall. The key thing to keep in mind, is that all but 2 of those wins came at home, where Cleveland is 23-4. Cavaliers are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after scoring 105+ points in 3 straight games. Thunder are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 off a loss by 3 points or less and 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Oklahoma City! |
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02-20-16 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
5* West Coast Conf Game of the Month on Gonzaga - The Bulldogs are going to be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 67-70 loss at St Mary's earlier this season. Gonzaga managed to lose that game, despite shooting 59% from the field, as they blew a 8-point halftime lead. I look for the Bulldogs to have another strong showing offensively, expect this time they keep their foot on the gas and turn this into a blowout. Gonzaga has gone a strong 11-3 at home this season and will be taking the floor at home for the final time in the regular season. That only adds to the energy and focus for this matchup and I just don't see St Mary's being able to keep pace. Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Gonzaga! |
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02-20-16 | Warriors -5 v. Clippers | 115-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
3* Warriors/Clippers Primetime Main Event on Warriors - The Warriors were embarrassed last night in a 105-137 loss at Portland in their first game back from the All-Star break. The Clippers on the other hand returned from the All-Star break with a 105-86 blowout win at home over the Spurs (didn't have Leonard). I just don't see Golden State losing back-to-back games and the line is right for the picking on this one. Warriors are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 off a road loss by 10 or more points, while the Clippers are 33-53 ATS in their last 86 home games off a blowout win by 15 or more points. Warriors are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Take Golden State! |
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02-20-16 | Missouri v. Arkansas -11 | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Big Chalk No Doubt Blowout on Arkansas - The Razorbacks come into this game having lost 3 straight, including an ugly 86-90 home loss to Auburn as a 16.5-point favorite last time out. This not only has Arkansas showing tremendous value at home against a bad Missouri team, but we can expect to see one of their best efforts of the season tonight. Arkansas is 11-3 at home on the season and it's well known that the Razorbacks have one of the strongest homecourt advantages in the SEC. That a key factor here, as Missouri has gone a miserable 0-11 away from home this season, with a 0-6 record on the road inside SEC play. The closest the Tigers have come to a road win is a 9-point loss at Georgia and 9-point defeat at Alabama. Missouri is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after winning 2 of their last 3, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a road win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off a win by 6 or less points. Razorbacks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off 3 straight conference losses. Take Arkansas! |
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02-20-16 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M | 77-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS Shocker on Texas A&M - The Aggies are showing great value here as a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. It wasn't that long ago Texas A&M was ranked inside the Top 10, but a 4-game losing streak now has this team flying under the radar, as most are going to look to back Kentucky riding a 4-game winning streak. The key thing you have to keep in mind is that almost all of Texas A&M's struggles have come on the road (lost 4 straight away from home). This has been a different team at home, where they are 14-1. I still believe this Aggies team is one of the most talented teams in the country and this is a game where we can expect to see Texas A&M lay everything they have on the line against the Wildcats. Texas A&M is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they made 78% or more of their free throws and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against at team with a losing road record. Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. Take Texas A&M! |
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02-20-16 | Florida v. South Carolina -2.5 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Early Bird NCAAB ATS No Brainer on South Carolina - South Carolina is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Gators. The Gamecocks come into this game off back to back losses, losing by 27-points at home to Kentucky and then a shocking 67-72 loss at Missouri. That sets up South Carolina in a prime bounce back spot at home against a Florida team that is just 5-7 away from home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Prior to getting embarrassed at home by Kentucky, the Gamecocks had opened up a perfect 13-0 at home. This line is simply not giving South Carolina the respect they deserve. The Gators are just 2-4 on the road in SEC play and the two wins have come against Ole Miss and Georgia, nothing to get excited about. Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 after a game with a combined score of 115 or less. South Carolina is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 or less and 1-0 ATS this season after 2 straight games where they shot 37% or worse from the field. All this adds up to a perfect 18-0 system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! |
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02-19-16 | Spurs v. Lakers OVER 203 | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Spurs/Lakers NBA Over/Under No Brainer on OVER San Antonio managed just 86 points in last night's ugly 19-point road loss to the Clippers. Regardless of who suits up for the Spurs tonight, I'm confident they are going to have zero problem exploiting the Lakers defense. LA is allowing 106.1 ppg on the season and have allowed 106+ in each of their last 3 meetings against the Spurs. The key here is that with the Spurs playing on no rest and the Lakers going to be highly motivated for this matchup at home, I expect LA to provide more than enough offensively to push this over the mark. The Lakers went into the break averaging 103.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Spurs are giving up an average of 99.5 ppg in their last 26 road games when they were listed as a road favorite in their previous contest. OVER is 18-4 in the Lakers last 22 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 18-8 in their last 26 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! |
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02-19-16 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 217.5 | 110-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider Total of the Week on Nuggets/Kings UNDER I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Nuggets and Kings. While Sacramento comes in allowing a staggering 109.1 ppg on the season, they are better on that side of the ball at home (106.6 ppg). The Kings also have made it clear that they need to get better defensively and with how much this game means to their playoff chances, I expect all out effort on that side of the ball tonight. On the flip side of this, Denver is also perceived to be a bad defensive team, as they are giving up 103.4 ppg. However, the Nuggets went into the All-Star break really playing well on that side of the ball, as they allowed just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. This game has a little extra meaning for Denver, as head coach Michael Malone goes up against his former team. Keep in mind, Malone's a defensive guy and knows the strengths and weakness of a lot of the Kings players. UNDER is 13-4 in the Kings last 17 home games against teams who average 99+ ppg and 9-1 in their last 10 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Nuggets last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Adding to this is a great system. The UNDER is 26-6 (81%) when you have a total of 210 or more with a road team off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight games with 215 or more combined points. Take the UNDER! |
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02-19-16 | Raptors v. Bulls OVER 201 | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
3* Bulls/Raptors NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER The Bulls come into this contest off a 95-106 loss at Cleveland last night. It was the 8th straight game in which Chicago has allowed 100 or more points. With Jimmy Butler sidelined, I just don't see the Bulls defense being able to contain the Raptors in this one, especially after playing such a big game last night against division rival Cleveland. Toronto was averaging 104.4 ppg over their last 5 prior to the break and have scored 100+ points in 13 of their last 14 overall. I look for a very similar type of scoring output to what we saw when these two teams last met on 1/3, as they combined for 228 points. Keep in mind it was the 5th straight meeting between these two teams where they combined for 200 or more points. OVER is 15-6 in Toronto's 21 games this season against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 21-5 in the Bulls las t26 against the Atlantic division and 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest. Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! |
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02-19-16 | Pacers +9 v. Thunder | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pacers + The Pacers are showing exceptional value here as a near double-digit road dog against the Thunder. Indiana went into the All-Star break off an embarrassing 22-point loss at home to the Hornets and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in their first game back. Prior to that loss the Pacers had won 5 of 7. Oklahoma City has gone 14-2 in their last 16 games and I believe that has them way overvalued here. The Thunder could also have a hard time getting up for this contest, being it's the first game after the break and they have a much bigger home game on deck agains the Cavaliers Sunday. Indiana is a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and 18-8 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Thunder are just 10-24 ATS in their last 34 against teams who average 99+ points/game and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall. Take Indiana! |
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02-19-16 | Pistons v. Wizards OVER 210.5 | 86-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
3* Pistons/Wizards NBA Total Dominator on OVER I'm expecting an offensive explosion tonight in Washington. The Wizards were able to hold the Jazz to just 89 points last night, but Utah is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Detroit comes in averaging 101.8 ppg and will have a much easier time putting up points on Washington. Keep in mind the Wizards are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and are allowing 105.1 ppg on the season. Detroit isn't a great defensive team either, especially on the road, where they are giving up 102.6 ppg. I don't expect the Pistons defense to be in great form tonight, as they will be working in newly acquired Tobias Harris and dealing with the losses of some key contributors. It takes time playing together to build chemistry on defense and I just don't see them having much success on that side of the ball here. OVER is 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference, 6-1 i their last 7 when playing on 0 days rest and 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 against the Eastern Conference. Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! |
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02-18-16 | California v. Washington +1 | 78-75 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Washington + The Huskies are showing great value here as a home dog against the Golden Bears. Washington is going to be highly motivated in this spot, as they have lost 3 straight. Nothing to be ashamed about those defeats, as they lost at home to Arizona by 5-points, at Utah by 8 and at Colorado by 1. While Washington is being undervalued due to their recent slide, Cal is being overvalued after winning 3 straight. The key thing to keep in mind with the Golden Bears surge is all 3 wins came at home. Cal is just 1-8 on the road this season with a 0-5 record away from home in league play. Washington on the other hand has a strong home court edge, as they are 10-4 at home. Huskies are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 after 3 or more consecutive losses, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 against a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Cal is 1-7 ATS this season in road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 3 straight games forcing an opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers. Take Washington! |
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02-18-16 | Stanford v. Washington State +2 | 72-56 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington State + The Cougars come into this game having lost 11 straight games, while Stanford just pulled off a huge 76-72 upset win over Oregon as a 6.5-point dog. Most will be looking to jump on the Cardinal in this spot, but I think it's a perfect time to jump on Washington State. While the Cougars have lost 5 straight at home, they have been competitive in a lot of those losses, including a 4-point defeat to Washington and 5-point loss against Colorado. Keep in mind this is the same Washington State team that knocked off UCLA at home 85-78. This is arguably the Cougars last legit shot at getting a win, as they host Cal next and then play their last 3 on the road. I'm expecting max effort here from Washington State. At the same time, this is a tough spot for the Cardinal. They are in a huge letdown spot after that big win over Oregon and have really struggled on the road, where they are just 2-6 on the season. Stanford is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after going over the total in their previous game. All this adds up to a perfect 16-0 system favoring the Cougars. Take Washington State! |
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02-18-16 | Jazz v. Wizards UNDER 197.5 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! |
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02-17-16 | Colorado v. USC -8 | 72-79 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
4* Colorado/USC Late Night Vegas Insider on USC - I really like the Trojans to make easy work of the Buffaloes at home tonight. USC is going to come out extremely focused after dropping back-to-back road games against Arizona and Arizona State and will be out for some serious revenge against Colorado, who they have lost 7 straight to in the series. Colorado comes in off back-to-back wins over Washington State and Washington, but both wins came at home, where the Buffaloes are now 14-1 on the season. Colorado is just 5-6 away from home and 2-4 on the road inside the Pac-12. That includes a 14-point loss at Cal and 20-point defeat at Oregon. Buffaloes also could be without their best player in Josh Scott, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Scott leads the team in both scoring (16.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.1 rpg). Even if he plays, I look for him to be limited. It's also important to note that USC has a huge homecourt advantage, as they are 14-0 at home this season, where they are winning by an average of 17.7 ppg. Their only conference home game in which they haven't won by 10 or more points was against Arizona. Colorado is just 2-9 ATS over their last 11 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after 15+ games against a team that's averaging 77 or more ppg. Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take USC! |
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02-17-16 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB AAC Game of the Month on Houston - The Cougars are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Green Wave. Houston comes into this contest playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against a very good Tulsa team. The reason we are catching a good number with Houston here is due to the fact that Tulane comes in off a huge 94-87 overtime win at home against Memphis as a 7-point dog. As impressive as that win is, the Green Wave are still just 3-10 inside the American and the other two wins have come against the likes of South Florida and East Carolina, who are a combined 5-22 in league play. Houston won 63-45 at home over Tulane earlier this season and didn't play close to their best game, as they shot just 41% from the field and 14.3% from behind the 3-point line. We can expect better shooting this time around and a similar edge on the boards (+18 previous meeting), which should lead to an easy win here. It's also important to note that the fact that Tulane just pulled off the upset helps us here. Not only does it put the Green Wave in a big letdown spot, but it adds some focus that might not have been their for Houston. Tulane is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 conference home games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after playing 2 straight at home and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 off 2 or more home wins. Take Houston! |
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02-17-16 | Providence +8 v. Xavier | 74-85 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Providence/Xavier Big East ATS Annihilator on Providence + The Friars are showing big time value here on the road against the Musketeers. Providence will be out for revenge from a 68-75 home loss to Xavier back on 1/26. The key thing to keep in mind with that defeat for the Friars, is they were in a horrible spot off a huge 82-76 win at Villanova as a 12.5-point underdog. Upsetting teams on the road has been a theme for Providence this season. Not only did they win at Villanova, but they knocked off Georgetown 73-69 as a 3-point road dog, won at Creighton 50-48 as a 2.5-point dog and won at Butler 81-73 as a 7.5-point dog. The reason we are seeing Providence catch such a big number here, is the fact that the Friars come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and have failed to cover the spread in all 4 of those games. We also find Xavier off a 74-57 blowout win at Butler as a 3.5-point dog. Pulling off the outright upset won't be easy, but it's definitely not out of the question. Either way I'm expecting a close game down to the wire. Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 75+ in two straight games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Providence! |
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02-16-16 | Kansas State v. TCU +4.5 | 63-49 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on TCU + The Horned Frogs come into this game with a mere 2-10 record in Big 12 play and are fresh off an ugly 49-73 loss at West Virginia. TCU is a team that the betting public wants nothing to do with and it's why they are showing great value at home against a Kansas State team that is just 3-9 in the Big 12 and a miserable 3-8 away from home. This is also a tough spot for the Wildcats, who have zero chance at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. That makes it really hard for Kansas State to emotionally get up for a game against a team like TCU, especially off a heartbreaking overtime loss at Oklahoma State and a huge home game on deck against in-state rival Kansas on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 20 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5. Take TCU! |
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02-16-16 | West Virginia +3 v. Texas | 78-85 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4* W Virginia/Texas NCAAB No Doubt Rout on West Virginia + This is going to seem like a great spot to back the Longhorns at home off back-to-back losses on the road against Big 12 heavy weights Oklahoma and Iowa State, especially considering Texas won 49-56 at West Virginia earlier this season. I don't see it playing out that way. West Virginia will be out for revenge against the Longhorns and that first loss wasn't a good spot for the Mountaineers. West Virginia was coming off two huge games against Kansas (won 74-63) and Oklahoma (68-70) and simply didn't have anything left in the tank for Texas and likely didn't give the Longhorns the respect they deserved. The Mountaineers shot just 31.1% from the field and forced a season-low 8 turnovers, two huge signs of a team that wasn't motivated and lacking energy. While Texas is 12-1 at home, West Virginia is 9-4 on the road with a 5-2 record away from home in Big 12 play. The only two losses coming against Oklahoma and Kansas, arguably the two best teams outside of the Mountaineers in the conference. West Virginia defeated TCU 73-42 in their last game and are a dominant 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off a blowout win by 30 or more points. The Mountaineers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Texas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take West Virginia! |
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02-16-16 | Creighton v. Butler -6.5 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big East Game of the Month on Butler - We have already seen this line jump from 4.5 to 6.5, despite the majority of the public action coming in on Creighton. While I would have loved to have the Bulldogs at -4.5, I still like them a lot at the current line. Butler had won 3 straight prior to an embarrassing 57-74 home loss to Xavier in their last game as a 3.5-point favorite. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulldogs, but that's not the only motivation angle here, as Butler will be out to revenge a 64-72 loss on the road to the Bluejays. Creighton has won 3 straight, including a 65-62 win at Marquette in their last game, but the Bluejays have been widely inconsistent in Big East play and have had their struggles on the road. While this game is important for both teams, it means a lot more to Butler, who is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover their last contest and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an embarrassing home loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take Butler! |
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02-15-16 | Oklahoma State +15 v. Kansas | Top | 67-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
5* Oklahoma State/Kansas ESPN Vegas Insider on Oklahoma St + Even with this being a revenge game for Kansas, who lost 67-86 at Oklahoma State, I just don't see them being able to bring that same kind of energy an intensity against a Cowboys team that is sitting one-game ahead of last place TCU at 3-9 in conference play. On the flip side of this, I expect Oklahoma State to come out extremely motivated to show that the first win was no fluke. The Cowboys may be just 3-9 in Big 12 play, but things could be a lot different if they could have closed out some games. Oklahoma State has 5 defeats in conference play by 7-points or less. Given the fact that Kansas is 13-0 at home, riding a 5-game winning streak and playing with revenge, I believe oddsmakers had no choice here but to inflate this line, especially given the small card on Monday. Keep in mind that in the last 10 meetings, only once has Kansas won by more than 12-points and that was by 15 back in 2012 as a 17.5-point favorite. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who averaging 76+ ppg and are off 3 or more consecutive unders are just 17-49 (26%) ATS since 1997 against an average offensive team (67-75 ppg) after 15+ games. It's also worth noting that teams in this spot are just 2-8 ATS this season. Take Oklahoma State! |
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02-14-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Florida State | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* Miami/Florida St ACC Vegas Insider on Florida State Pick'em This is a game the Seminoles desperately need to win at home if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Florida State is currently projected as a No. 12 seed, which means they are one of the last at-large teams expected to make the field. A signature win over No. 12 Miami would definitely help their cause. The fact that the Seminoles aren't in the Top 25 and are the favorite at some books, is a great sign that the oddsmakers believe Florida State has the edge. I couldn't agree more. The Seminoles are a strong 8-2 at home and most importantly are a young team that is getting better and better as the season progresses. Miami is a quality team, but they have had some struggles on the road inside conference play. They lost by 11 at Clemson and 16 at NC State, two teams that I think are very comparable to the Seminoles. Hurricanes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against s team with a wining home record. Seminoles allowed Syracuse to shoot a ridiculous 62% in their last game, but are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on Sunday. Take Florida State! |