Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-15-19 | Connecticut v. Houston -10 | Top | 45-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Early Bird Tournament Top Play on Houston - The Cougars will have no problem covering the double-digit spread against the Huskies in Friday's AAC quarterfinal action. Houston solidified itself as the best team in the American Athletic with a 85-69 win at Cincinnati in the regular-season finale. Right now the Cougars are projected as a No. 3 seed, but likely need to at least make the title game to avoid slipping back to a No. 4 seed. I just don't see UConn being able to make this thing competitive. The Huskies knocked off USF yesterday, but now must play on no rest against the best team in the conference. Only meeting this season the Cougars won by 8 on the road. Might not seem like much, but UConn is a much better team at home. Huskies were just 3-11 on the road. UConn is also 0-9 ATS last 9 when playing 3rd time in a week and 0-6 ATS last 6 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days or less. Cougars are 11-4 ATS last 15 when playing only their 2nd game in a week and 12-4 ATS last 16 on the road after winning 15 of their last 20. Take Houston! |
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03-14-19 | New Mexico v. Utah State -11.5 | Top | 83-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Mountain West Tournament TOP PLAY on Utah State - I look for Utah State to lay it on the Lobos Thursday night in the MWC Quarterfinals. The Aggies are one of the better teams in the country that no one knows about. Utah State is 25-6. They lost just 3 games in conference play and their 3 non-conference losses were to Arizona St, BYU and Houston. They come into this one riding a 7-game winning streak and will be playing on more than a week of rest, as they lost took the court on March 5th at Colorado State. New Mexico had to play in the opening round of the MWC tournament and while they beat Wyoming 78-68, they only shot 36% from the field, giving them 3 straight games under 42% from the field. Aggies beat the Lobos by 16 in the most recent meeting and are a dominant 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Utah State! |
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03-14-19 | USC v. Washington -5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Pac-12 Tournament TOP PLAY on Washington - I'm shocked the Huskies aren't a bigger favorite here. Washington failed to cover their last 4, but a lot of that I think was due to complacency, as they had really had their way with the Pac-12. They were just 2-2 in their last 4 games, yet were still a full 3-games ahead of 2nd place Arizona State. I'm confident the Huskies will be 100% locked in for the Pac-12 Tournament and they have a big advantage here playing on 4 days of rest, while USC is forced to play on no rest after a big win over Arizona in the opening round on Wednesday. I just don't trust this Trojans team at all. They were a mere 2-7 in their previous 9 games and lost by 13 in the only meetings against the Huskies. Take Washington! |
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03-14-19 | Boise State v. Nevada -11.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nevada - I have zero problem laying the big number here with the Wolf Pack against Boise State. Nevada was 15-3 in MWC play, while the Broncos were just 7-11. Sure Boise State pulled out a nice 66-57 win and cover over Colorado State as 3.5-point favorite, but this still a team that went a mere 2-8 in their final 10. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace with Nevada with them playing on no rest and the Wolf Pack playing on 4 days of rest. While Boise played Nevada tough on their home floor, the Wolf Pack won the most recent meeting by 20 and both times they shot 50% or better from the field. Take Nevada! |
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03-14-19 | Creighton v. Xavier +2.5 | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big East Tournament TOP PLAY on Xavier + The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Xavier was a great team to fade early on in the season, but the Musketeers have come alive down the stretch. Xavier is 6-1 both SU and ATS over their last 7 games and that includes a 12-point win at home against Villanova. Creighton has also caught fire, as they come in having won 5 straight, but it was a pretty favorable stretch as 3 of the 5 were at home and one was on the road at DePaul. They did have a nice win at Marquette, but the Golden Eagles struggled down the stretch and were coming off a crushing loss at Villanova. Bluejays are just 2-10 ATS last 12 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6, while Musketeers are 29-13 ATS last 42 road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take Xavier! |
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03-14-19 | George Washington v. George Mason -7.5 | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Atlantic 10 Tournament TOP PLAY on George Mason - The Patriots should have no problem covering the number here against the Colonials. George Washington was able to knock off UMass yesterday in the opening round of the A-10 tournament, but only won by 4 and shot just 31% from the field in the process. Prior to that win the Colonials had lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 10. These two teams played twice and George Mason won both times, including a 16-point win at George Washington in the most recent meeting less than a week ago (last Saturday). Not only are the Patriots the better team, but them playing on 4 days rest and the Colonials on no rest is a major advantage that I don't think is being factored into the number here. Note that George Washington's cover against UMass was only their 8th cover away from home in their last 30 lined games. Colonials are also 0-7 ATS last 7 road games off a conference win and 1-8 ATS last 9 when revenging a home loss. Take George Mason -7.5! |
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03-13-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse - I'm shocked the Orange aren't a bigger favorite in this one. Pitt has won two straight, but it's come against Notre Dame and Boston College. Prior to the back-to-back victories the Panthers had lost 13 straight. I just don't see the Panthers being competitive at all here playing on no rest against a hungry Syracuse team that has had 3 days off. One of the reasons I think the Orange are showing value is the fact that they lost their final 2 and 4 of their last 5 overall. However, three of those losses came against Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. The other was a road game at Clemson in what was the Tigers final home game. Pittsburgh are 5-13 TS last 18 games as an underdog and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when revenging a loss where they scored 60 or less (lost 65-56 at home in last meeting). Orange are 7-1 ATS last 8 off a SU loss by 10 or more and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Syracuse! |
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03-13-19 | Coppin State v. North Carolina A&T -5.5 | 79-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC A&T - This is just too good a price to pass up on the Aggies in Wednesday's quarterfinal against Coppin State in the MEAC Tournament. North Carolina A&T finished 13-3, just one game back of top seed Norfolk State and 3 ahead of 3rd place. The Eagles were just 7-9 and are at a big disadvantage in this one. The Aggies haven't played since the 7th, giving them almost a week off, while Coppin State was forced to play yesterday. College teams are not like the pros and often will really struggle when playing on no rest. I think that's definitely the case for bad teams like the Eagles. Aggies won by 9 in the only meeting during the regular-season and should have no problem winning by at least that many this time around. Take North Carolina A&T! |
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03-13-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville -7.5 | Top | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville - The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Notre Dame comes in off a win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday thanks to some ridiculous shooting in the first half, which saw the Irish put up 52 points and take a 20-point lead. Notre Dame managed just 26-points in the 2nd half and barely held on for the win. The Irish had lost 7 straight and the offense had really been atrocious during that stretch. I just really have a hard time seeing Notre Dame being able to do enough offensively against a very good Louisville defense to keep this one respectable. Cardinals went just 3-7 over their final 10, but note that 5 of the 7 losses came against the top 4 teams in Duke, UNC, FSU and Virginia. In the only meeting between the two teams this season, Louisville won by 14 and did so despite going a miserable 2 for 22 from behind the 3-point line. Note they still shot 48% from the field overall and were +19 in rebounds. Simply put, this is a complete mismatch and would take something crazy like the Cardinals shooting under 10% from deep for the Irish to sniff a cover. Take Louisville! |
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03-13-19 | South Carolina State v. Norfolk State -8 | 73-78 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Norfolk State - The Spartans should have no problem winning here by double-digits against the Bulldogs in the quarterfinals of the MEAC Tournament. Norfolk State was the No. 1 seed in the tournament and with that got a first round bye. South Carolina State on the other hand finished 5-11 in league play and will be playing on no rest after taking on Maryland-Eastern Shore on Tuesday. These two only played once during the regular season and while the Spartans only won by in that matchup, it was on the road. The Bulldogs are a mere 3-19 on the season in games played away from home. South Carolina State is just 1-4 ATS last 5 off a cover, while the Spartans are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Norfolk State! |
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03-12-19 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -14 | 60-47 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night WCC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME on Gonzaga - Hard to not take a shot here with the Bulldogs covering the big number against the Gaels in tonight's WCC title game. Gonzaga won by a ridiculous 48-points at home in the first meeting with St Mary's and by 14 on the road just a couple weeks ago. I think the biggest thing here is we know we are going to get a max effort from the Bulldogs with a conference championship on the line. The books just haven't been able to make the proper adjustments on this team. Gonzaga is currently 21-11 ATS for the season and have gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record. They are also 15-5 ATS last 20 off a win by 15+ points and 7-1 ATS last 8 after leading in their previous game by 20 or more at the half. Take Gonzaga! |
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03-12-19 | Bucks v. Pelicans +10.5 | 130-113 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pelicans + I really like the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit home dog against the Bucks. The Pelicans come in having lost 3 straight all by double-digits, but this team continues to play extremely hard and we should get a big time effort here at home against a top caliber team like Milwaukee. While New Orleans is going to be motivated, I question how much the Bucks are going to be interested in this game. Milwaukee has also not been playing well on the road. They just lost at San Antonio by 7 as a 2-point favorite and in their two previous road games they lost by 9 at Phoenix and by 4 at Utah. Bucks only won by 8 at home in the first meeting between these two and that loss makes New Orleans an even stronger play. The Pelicans are 15-6 ATS last 21 when revenging a same season loss. They are also 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU loss by 10 or more and 12-3-1 ATS last 16 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New Orleans! |
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03-12-19 | Binghamton +17 v. Vermont | Top | 51-84 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
5* America East GAME OF THE MONTH on Binghamton + I love the value here with the Bearcats as a massive dog against the Catamounts in Tuesday's semifinal action of the America East Tournament. All Binghamton did in the quarterfinals was take down No. 2 seed Stony Brook 78-72 as a 11-point underdog. The Bearcats had 3 different players score 16+ points, led by freshman Sam Sessoms 26 points. I'm not saying Binghamton has a realistic shot of upsetting Vermont, but it's not asking a lot for them to keep this within the number. These two teams played in late February and the Bearcats gave the Catamounts all they could handle in a 69-63 loss as a 14.5-point dog. Note the books have been really overvaluing Vermont of late. The Catamounts are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and have covered just 1 of their last 5 off a SU win. Take Binghamton! |
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03-11-19 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 227 | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Thunder UNDER I'm confident that Utah and OKC will fly UNDER the mark set by the books. These are two of the better teams in the Western Conference and that should bring out the best in both sides. Both teams also are going to be hungry for a win. The Thunder have lost 6 of 8, while Utah comes in having lost 2 of 3, getting upset as a favorite in both defeats. I get the last time these two teams played they combined for a ridiculous 295 points, but that was a double-overtime game and it was also the first contest back from the All-Star break. UNDER is still 17-8 in the last 25 meetings overall and a dominant 10-2 in their last 12 meetings played in Utah. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Thunder's last 14 road games when they are listed as an underdog on the spread and 12-2 in their last 14 after playing a game where they attempted 100 or more shots. Take the UNDER! |
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03-11-19 | Monmouth v. Iona UNDER 142 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iona/Monmouth UNDER Books have set the total way too high for the MAAC Championship Game Monday night between Iona and Monmouth. Both teams have to be a bit exhausted. This will be the Gaels' 3rd game in 3 days, while the Hawks are playing their 3rd straight and 4th in the last 5 days. Tired legs will more times than not lead to a slower pace and few less made shots from the outside. This also the 3rd meeting between these two teams, so these two are very familiar with one another, which is an advantage for the defenses. UNDER has gone 23-10-1 in the Hawks last 34 neutral site games and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 10-4 in Iona's last 14 conference games and a perfect 3-0 this season when revenging a road loss. Take the UNDER! |
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03-10-19 | Drexel v. College of Charleston -8.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on College of Charleston - Easy play here for me on the Cougars to cover the big number against the Dragons in the Quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. Charleston finished as the No. 3 seed in the conference and come into this thing having gone 9-2 in their last 11 games. On the flip side of this, Drexel is a mere 3-7 in their last 10 and have lost 5 of their last 6. Last time out they got annihilated by 24 at home against Northeastern, as they gave up 90 points and let the Huskies shoot over 53% from the field. I just don't see the Dragons being able to keep this within single-digits. Drexel is 2-11 ATS last 13 off a conference home loss and have lost in this spot by an average of 11.1 ppg. Take Charleston! |
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03-10-19 | SMU +2.5 v. South Florida | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SMU + Don't fall into the trap here with South Florida. The betting public is all over the Bulls as a small home favorite, but the smart money is pounding the other side. I get that SMU has lost 4 straight and are just 1-9 in their last 10, but the books aren't stupid. South Florida hasn't been a whole lot better of late. While the Bulls come in off a win at Tulane, the Green Wave haven't won a single conference game all season. Prior to that they had lost 5 straight. SMU has covered 3 of their last 5, including last time out in a 11-point loss at Houston as a 13-point dog. That outcome is worth noting, as the Mustangs have gone 17-4 ATS last 21 on the road off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog. Take SMU! |
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03-09-19 | CS-Northridge +13.5 v. Cal-Irvine | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge + The books have completely missed the mark here. No way should the Matadors be this big of a dog against the Anteaters. These two played back in January at Northridge and while Irvine won the game by 6-points, they were very fortunate in doing so. The Anteaters shot just 36% from the field, while the Matadors did as they pleased offensively on their way to 48% shooting. I expect more of the same and wouldn't be surprised at all if Northridge won the game outright. The Matadors are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 inside conference play. Irvine is just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they hosted the Matadors and are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home after playing 3 straight on the road. Take CS-Northridge! |
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03-09-19 | Michigan v. Michigan State -3.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State - No one gave the Spartans much of a chance of winning at Michigan earlier this season, as they had just lost Nick Ward to injury and were already without Joshua Langford. Michigan State proved everyone wrong and won 77-70 in Ann Arbor as a 4.5-point dog. Surprisingly, the public is once again on the Wolverines. That's fine with me, as it's created some big time value here with the Spartans as a small home favorite. Michigan State almost always exceeds expectations in big games. They are a ridiculous 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a winning record and 15-5-1 ATS last 21 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Spartans are also 17-5 ATS last 22 off a SU win and 34-16-1 ATS last 51 at home. Take Michigan State! |
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03-09-19 | Oregon State v. Washington State +6 | 85-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Washington State + I see a ton of value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Beavers. I get that Washington State comes in having lost 4 in a row and failed to cover in all 4, which is definitely playing into the number here. With this being the home finale for the Cougars and no real incentive here for the Beavers, I not only think Washington State will cover, but I give them a good shot at winning this game outright. Oregon State has lost 3 straight and are just 5-5 in their last 10 overall. That's not the kind of team that should be laying this kind of number on the road. Beavers are also a dreadful 0-6 ATS last 3 seasons when playing a bad team that's won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take Washington State! |
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03-09-19 | Florida v. Kentucky -10 | 57-66 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kentucky - Kentucky should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Gators. A lot of people are going to write-off the Wildcats in this game because the perception is there's nothing to play for. Just to earn a 3-way share of the SEC regular-season title, Kentucky needs both Tennessee and LSU to lose. They also figure to be playing this one without one of their better players in Reid Travis. I don't think it will matter one bit. There's definitely going to be motivation here in the final home game for Kentucky and I don't see them looking past the Gators with how well Florida played against them in the first meeting. Kentucky ended up winning the game by 11-points, despite trailing in the 2nd half by 11. This is also a really tough spot for Florida, who are coming off an absolutely devastating overtime loss at home to LSU, which followed a shocking home loss to Georgia. I just don't think there's enough fight left for the Gators to keep this close. Take Kentucky! |
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03-09-19 | Tennessee v. Auburn +3 | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Auburn + I really like the value here with the Tigers getting points at home against the Volunteers. Everyone is going to be picking Tennessee, but there's not as much incentive here as people think. Sure the Vols can earn a share of the SEC title, but as long as LSU takes care of Vanderbilt at home Tennessee has no shot at the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament. On top of that, Auburn is no pushover and the Tigers come into this game in great form. Auburn has won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. They are a dominant 14-2 on their home floor, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 22.3 ppg. The Vols also come in on a 3-game winning streak, but are just 12-30 ATS last 42 on the road when coming off 3 straight conference wins. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Tigers on the other hand are 13-4 ATS last 17 at home when off 2 straight conference wins. Take Auburn! |
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03-08-19 | Raptors -6.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors - This is the perfect spot to jump on Toronto, as we know the Raptors are going to be highly motivated coming off back-to-back losses. Both of those games could have gone the other way and it was more of Toronto simply not shooting well than anything. Raptors shot just 39% at Detroit and then 42% at home against the Rockets. I don't see those struggles continuing against the Pelicans. New Orleans has allowed 111 or more points in 10 straight games. They just let the Jazz shoot 52% on their home floor last time out. Opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field against them in their home games this season. New Orleans is also going to be down two of their better players, as both E'Twaun Moore and Jrue Holiday are both out. They could also be without Jahlil Okafor, who is questionable. Pelicans have also routinely not showed up with the big crowds on Friday nights, going just 1-10 ATS last 11 games played on Friday. Take Toronto! |
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03-08-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -1.5 | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio - The Bobcats should have no problem beating the Red Hawks at home. Both of these teams are near the bottom of the standings in the MAC and I just don't think Ohio is getting enough respect on their home floor. The Bobcats are 10-5 at home compared to 3-11 on the road for the season. Red Hawks on the other hand are 5-10 on the road compared to 10-5 at home. Simply put, don't be fooled by the fact that Miami won the first meeting at home by 20-points. Ohio couldn't have shot much worse, as they were 35.6% from the field and 11-21 (52.4%) from the free throw line. Ohio has won 17 of the last 21 home games against the Red Hawks. Home team is 9-2 ATS last 11 meetings in the series and the Bobcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 at home in the series. Take Ohio! |
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03-08-19 | Valparaiso v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Loyola - This is an easy play here for me, as No.1 seed Loyola-Chicago has a huge advantage here against the Crusaders. While the Ramblers have been off since last Saturday, Valparaiso will be playing on no rest as they opened up the MVC Tournament last night against Indiana State. Plus, the early start time only adds to the edge for Loyola. The Ramblers didn't have the regular-season that a lot of people expected after their FInal 4 appearance last year, but I think they are primed to win this tournament. They played exceptionally well in their last two, beating a red-hot UNI team on the road and then absolutely thrashing Bradley 81-68. Loyola also won and covered both regular-season meetings against the Crusaders. Ramblers are 25-12 ATS last 37 off a conference win and 16-6 ATS last 22 off a conference win by 10 or more. They are also 7-3 in their last 10 neutral site games and 17-7 in their last 24 away from home when playing just the second time in a week span. Take Loyola-Chicago! |
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03-07-19 | SMU +13.5 v. Houston | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU + I really like the value here with the Mustangs as a big road dog against the Cougars. There's no denying that Houston is one of the elite teams in the AAC and in the country. The Cougars have been a money-making machine for their backers, going 18-9 ATS. I just think with Houston coming off an upset loss at home to UCF the books have drastically inflated the number here knowing the public will be itching to back the Cougars off a loss. Keep in mind that when these two teams played at SMU back in January the Mustangs were actually a 1-point favorite, which means the Cougars would have been around a 5-6 point home favorite at that time. The line here is more than double that. SMU has been great when playing with revenge, especially if the most recent was a lopsided loss. Mustangs are 26-9 ATS last 35 road games revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take SMU! |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 221 | 98-117 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Bucks OVER The Pacers and Bucks should have zero problem eclipsing the total set by the books in Thursday's showdown on TNT. Milwaukee is one of the best offensive teams in the league. The Bucks are averaging 117.3 ppg on the season and that goes up to 119.6 ppg at home. They have shot under 39% from the field in each of their last 2 games, yet still averaged 108 points in those contests. Pacers have scored 100+ in each of their last 7 games, a stretch in which they are averaging 113.4 ppg. If they can just hit the 110 mark in this one, this game is going to fly past the number. Keep in mind they have allowed 110 or more points in 6 of their last 7. Take the OVER! |
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03-06-19 | Wyoming -1 v. San Jose State | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Wyoming - The Cowboys should have no problem going on the road and getting a win over the Spartans. Wyoming. Both teams are terrible, as they have a combined 10 wins. The key here is that there's zero home court edge for San Jose State. You also have to look at the previous meeting between these two teams. Wyoming completely dominated the Spartans in a 59-46 win. They shot 56% from the field on San Jose State, while holding the Spartans to just 33%. San JoSe State was just demolished on the road last time out and that's a good thing. Spartans are just 8-20 ATS last 28 at home off a road loss by 20 or more. They are also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 revenging a loss. Take Wyoming! |
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03-06-19 | Ohio State v. Northwestern | Top | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern pk This line really says it all. Northwestern is a pick'em at home, despite the fact that they come into this game having lost 10 straight overall and are just 1-8-1 ATS during this stretch. The key here is the Wildcats haven't been nearly as bad as their record would indicate during this run. THey have really been competitive in all but a couple games during this run. They will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Ohio State and I'm confident they get it. Wildcats have covered 5 of 7 at home against the Buckeyes and Ohio State is a mere 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Northwestern! |
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03-06-19 | Mavs v. Wizards -5.5 | 123-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards - The Mavericks have been an absolute joke in their last two games. Dallas followed up a 111-81 home loss to the Grizzlies with a 127-88 loss at Brooklyn. The offense was trending in the wrong direction for a while and now it's become a real struggle for Dallas to score. Not only are they short on talent, they simply aren't shooting the ball well right now. Washington is coming off a 135-121 win at home against the Timberwolves where they shot 50% from the field. I just don't see Dallas being able to keep pace with the offensive fire-power of the Wizards. Washington is also playing with revenge here and the Wizards are 9-1 ATS at home this season when revenging a same season loss. This line should be closer to double-digits. Take Washington! |
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03-06-19 | Iowa State v. West Virginia +8 | 75-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on West Virginia + The Cyclones are getting way too much respect as a near double-digit dog at West Virginia. Iowa State is not playing well enough to be laying this many points. The Cyclones were just annihilated at Texas 86-69. They are now just 2-4 SU in their last 6 and have gone a miserable 2-6 ATS in their last 8. West Virginia is not a great team and are playing short-handed, which is definitely playing into this number. However, we did just see the Mountaineers win at home against TCU as a 4.5-point dog. Cyclones are also not a team you want to be laying points with on the road even when they are playing well. ISU is a mere 18-34 ATS last 52 road games when listed as a favorite. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road when they come in having lost 2 of 3. Mountaineers on the other hand are 14-3 ATS last 17 at home after 3 or more OVERs and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after back-to-back games that saw a combined score of 155 or more. Take West Virginia! |
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03-05-19 | Illinois-Chicago +3.5 v. Green Bay | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Horizon GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois-Chicago + Love the value here with the Flames as a dog against Green Bay in Tuesday's quarterfinal action of the Horizon Tournament. Illinois-Chicago will be out for double-revenge here after losing two close games to the Phoenix in the regular-season. The Flames lost by just 5 at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first meeting and then by just 1 at home in the rematch. Illinois-Chicago has gone an impressive 34-15 ATS in their last 49 games played in the month of March. Phoenix are just 52-76 ATS last 128 after covering 4 or more of their last 6 games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 40 or more points in the 1st half in 2 straight games. Take Illinois-Chicago! |
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03-05-19 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 139 | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Michigan St/Nebraska UNDER The books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Tuesday's Big Ten action between Michigan State and Nebraska. Spartans have consistently been going UNDER the total set by the books. In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 and 11-3 in their last 14. \ A big reason for that is they have really turned up the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 6 games they have held all 6 of their opponents under 43% shooting from the field. They are only giving up 61.5 ppg at home and are facing a Cornhuskers team that is averaging just 63.4 ppg over their last 5 and 65.4 ppg overall in the Big Ten. UNDER is 6-1-1 in Michigan State's last 8 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. UNDER is also 30-15 in Nebraska's last 45 road games vs team who average 8 or more made 3-pointers and 20-7 in their last 27 vs strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting from the field. Take the UNDER! |
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03-04-19 | Weber State v. Idaho State +4 | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State + Love the value here with the Bengals as a small home dog against the Wildcats. Idaho State comes in having lost 5 straight and are getting zero respect from the books because of it. Weber State is not playing like a team that should be laying points on the road. The Wildcats have lost each of their last 2 and 3 of 4 overall. Weber State was a 4.5-point dog at North Colorado in their last game and got annihilated 85-61. Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS last 7 after playing their previous game as a dog. Idaho State is also 4-2 ATS this season when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home with a total of 155 to 159.5. Take Idaho State! |
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03-03-19 | East Carolina +11.5 v. Tulsa | 78-91 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on East Carolina + I really like the Pirates to cover the big number on the road against the Golden Hurricane. East Carolina is coming off an ugly 34-point loss at home to Houston, which is definitely playing into the favorable number here. No way should Tulsa be laying this many points with how they are playing. Golden Hurricane are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS last 4 and despite a 13-3 SU home record, they are just 7-9 ATS on their home floor. Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Pirates. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who are coming off a blowout loss by 20 or more to a conference rival are 139-86 (62%) ATS when favoring an opponent that is coming off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Take East Carolina! |
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03-03-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls - Chicago defeated the Hawks 168-161 in 4OT on Friday at Atlanta and I see no reason why they won't make easy work of them on their home floor this afternoon. Bulls have been playing some really good basketball of late. Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. They have covered each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Hawks. Atlanta is a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs an opponent from the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up 125 or more points in their previous game. Take Chicago! |
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03-03-19 | CS-Northridge +7 v. Hawaii | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night NO-BRAINER on Northridge + The Matadors will have no problem covering the spread against the Warriors in Saturday's late night action. CS-Northridge comes in off back-to-back wins and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Hawaii has lost their last 2 and are just 2-4 ATS last 6. Matadors won't be taking this one lightly, as they lost to Hawaii at home back in January. Revenge has been a great motivator for this team. CS-Northridge is 43-25 ATS last 68 road games when revenging a home loss. The Matadors are also a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a home win, while Hawaii is a mere 4-16 ATS last 20 at home in the month of March. Take CS-Northridge! |
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03-02-19 | Drake v. Missouri State -3 | 73-62 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Missouri Valley GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State - Love the value here with Missouri State at basically a pick'em at home against the Bulldogs. Drake is simply getting too much respect on the road. The Bears might just be 16-14 overall, but are a strong 10-7 in the Missouri Valley. Even more important is the fact that they are 11-3 at home, where they are winning by nearly 12 ppg. Drake has just 3 wins in their last 21 trips to Missouri State and have only covered the spread 5 times during this stretch. Bears have covered 4 of their last 6 when revenging a road loss and will add to that mark with an easy cover here. Take Missouri State! |
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03-02-19 | Northern Arizona v. Montana State -8 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Montana State - The Bobcats should have zero problem winning by double-digits at home against the Lumberjacks, making this an easy play for me with Montana State laying single digits. This is the ideal spot to jump on the Bobcats, who are undervalued after losing their last 2 on the road. The thing is both losses came as dogs and they were competitive in both games. Prior to that they had won 4 straight and come in having gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Montana State is the team you want to back off a loss, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 in this spot. The Bobcats are also 6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS last 10 at home after playing 3 or more consecutive games on the road. Take Montana State! |
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03-02-19 | Ohio +9.5 v. Akron | 73-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio + Really like the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. No doubt the Zips should be favored here, but they are simply getting too much respect. While Akron has covered 6 straight, they are just 2-4 SU during this stretch. Most of those have come as underdogs and it's a whole different game when you go into a contest expected to blow the opponent out. Keep in mind these two teams played in early February and Ohio was a 2-point home favorite, which means this line should be closer to Akron -3.5 to -4. Zips have only covered 2 of their last 7 at home against a team with a losing road record and are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Ohio! |
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03-02-19 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 148 | Top | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss/Arkansas UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Saturday's SEC clash between the Rebels and Razorbacks. The UNDER has been the smart play in recent games for both of these teams. Ole Miss has gone UNDER the total in 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. Arkansas has gone UNDER the total in 9 of their last 12. These two teams played earlier this season and combined for 151, but that was with both teams shooting over 80% from the free throw line and the Rebels score 84 on 48.4% shooting. Arkansas only managed 67 on 40%. Razorbacks offense just hasn't been great of late, but the defensive effort should be a lot better at home. Ole Miss is no where close to the same offensive team on the road. UNDER is 10-3 in the Rebels last 13 conference games and 8-2 in their last 10 games with a total in the 150's. UNDER is also 6-1 in Arkansas' last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-3 in their last 11 conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Pacific Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Kings - Love the value here with Sacramento at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Kings have been one of the best bets in the NBA for a while now. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the books are simply slow to adjust because of how bad this team has been in previous years. I believe a big reason the Kings are showing such great value here is because they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The thing is, 3 of the 4 losses came on the road against the likes of the Nuggets, Warriors and Timberwolves. The other was a 1-point loss at home to the Bucks. Kings have been really good at home and it's not just of late. Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. They are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4. They also have gone a dominant 8-1 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Take Sacramento! |
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03-01-19 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 227.5 | 123-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets OVER The Nets and Hornets should have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. This is an ideal matchup for a high-scoring game. Both teams come in in good form offensively. Charlotte is averaging 110 ppg over their last 5, which is pretty impressive given they are only shooting 43.8% from the field during this stretch. Brooklyn is averaging 116.2 ppg and have also not shot well (44.1%). Nets also expected to get back a big offensive piece tonight in Spencer Dinwiddie. Not only are both teams scoring a lot, but they are both not playing a bunch of defense. Hornets have allowed 110+ in each of their last 5 games. As for the Nets, they have allowed 113 or more in 8 of their last 9. OVER is 7-1 in the Hornets last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-0 in the Nets last 5 vs a team from the Eastern Conference. Take the OVER! |
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02-28-19 | Washington v. California +13.5 | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cal + Great spot here to grab the points and back Cal as a double-digit home dog against the Huskies. No question who the better team is. Washington is 13-1 in Pac-12 play and the Golden Bears haven't won a single conference game. That's where the value comes in, as this is a game that the Huskies are going to have an extremely difficult time getting up for. Cal on the other hand is going to play their hearts out against the best team in the conference. It's likely not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset, but I really like their chances of keeping it closer than the number. Huskies are just 9-20 ATS last 29 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Cal! |
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02-28-19 | Washington State +9 v. Stanford | 50-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Washington State + The Cougars should have no problem covering the big number here on the road against the Cardinal. Washington State is just 4-10 in Pac-12 play and why they are getting so many points, but the Cougars come in playing some of their best basketball of the season. Of those 4 conference wins, 3 of them have come in their last 5 games. A stretch in which they have gone a strong 4-1 ATS. Two of those 3 recent Pac-12 wins have come on the road, as they won 91-70 as a 15.5 point dog at Arizona St and 69-55 as a 11.5-point dog at Arizona. Simply put, an outright win here is not out of the question. Take Washington State! |
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02-28-19 | Tulane +13.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane + I really like the value here with the Green Wave as a big road dog against the Golden Hurricane. Tulane is winless in league play at 0-13 and are just 1-12 on the road. The betting public will be running to the ticket window to take Tulsa and the books have adjusted accordingly. Tulsa has been overvalued a lot here of late, as they come in having failed to cover each of their last 3. They may also be without their leading scorer for this game, as DaQuan Jeffries (13.7 ppg) is questionable with a concussion. That would be a massive blow, as there's only 2 other players on the team averaging double-figures. Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allowed 80 or more points in their last game are 84-41 (67%) ATS when facing a team that has failed to reach 30 points in the 1st half in each of their last 2 games. Take Tulane! |
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02-28-19 | Wolves +4.5 v. Pacers | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Wolves + Most are going to look to lay the short number here with the Pacers, but Indiana is not only playing without Oladipo, but will not have the services of Domantas Sabonis and could also be missing Tyreke Evans (missed last night's game at Dallas with food poisoning. Pacers have lost their last 2 at Detroit and Dallas and I think they suffer a rare loss at home in this one. Minnesota might not be the best road team, but they are going to be the more talented team on the floor tonight. Timberwolves have also been covering at a high rate of late, as they are 6-1 ATS last 7. They are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and have covered each of their last 4 meetings with the Pacers in Indiana. Take Minnesota! |
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02-27-19 | Cincinnati v. SMU +3.5 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU + Cincinnati continues to get too much respect from the books. The Bearcats have won 11 of their last 12 and are 23-4 on the season. The books have consistently inflated the number on Cincinnati and it's why they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. I not only think they are overvalued here on the road against SMU, but I think the Mustangs are primed to win this game outright. These two played at Cincinnati earlier this month and it went right down to the wire with the Bearcats squeaking out a 5-point win as a 11.5-point favorite. Take SMU! |
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02-27-19 | Georgia Tech +19 v. Virginia | 51-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ACC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech + This is just too many points for Virginia to be laying in a game that they figure to have a hard time getting motivated for. The Cavaliers are 24-2 and 12-2 in the ACC, there's not a lot more this team has to prove. Their only goal is to take care of business in these last 4 games before the ACC Tournament. We saw a very similar matchup for Virginia almost two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame as a 17-point favorite. They ended up winning that game by a mere 6-points (60-54). They also failed to cover a while back as a 17.5-point favorite at home against Miami, winning by just 10. Georgia Tech isn't a great team, but should put up a fight and are a good matchup, as they don't rely on the 3-pointer, which is what Virginia's defense is built to stop. Yellow Jackets are 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog of 10 or more, while Virginia is 0-7 ATS last 7 home games when they come in having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-27-19 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Penn State + Love the value here with the Nittany Lions as a home dog against Maryland. Penn State has been playing their best basketball of the season and the books are simply slow to adjust. The Nittany Lions have won 4 of their last 6 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS during this stretch. The simple fact that you have a team that is 4-12 in Big Ten play getting less than 3-points against a ranked opponent that is 12-5 in league play, really tells you everything you need to know. The books are begging for you to take Maryland. What people will fail to realize is that this is a really tough spot for the Terps, who are coming off a couple of hard fought wins over Iowa and Ohio State and have a massive revenge game on deck at home against Michigan (lost by 13 at Michigan less than 2 weeks ago). In the Nittany Lions last game they won 83-76 at Illinois and that's worth noting, as they are 10-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and 11-3 ATS last 14 off back-to-back wins. Terps have also failed to cover each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record. Take Penn State! |
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02-26-19 | Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 237 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Thunder UNDER I'm not sure why the books have the total here as high as they do, but I'll gladly back the UNDER. We just saw a similar total in Denver's last game at home against the Clippers. The total for that contest was 235.5 and the two teams combined for 119. UNDER has cashed in 4 of the Nuggets last 5 overall and a big reason for that is this a better defense team than they get credit for. No doubt they are going to come to play on that side of the ball against a team like OKC. Thunder just has a total of 240 in their last game against the Kings and failed to eclipse the mark. OKC also shot a mere 38% in the process. UNDER is 13-2 this season in games involving the Thunder with a spread of +3 to -3 and 20-9 in OKC's last 29 as an underdog. UNDER is also 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, which includes two meetings earlier this season that failed to eclipse 210 points. Take the UNDER! |
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02-26-19 | Iowa v. Ohio State UNDER 142 | 70-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER These two teams combined for just 134 points in the first meeting this season, as Iowa won 72-62 at home. I'm expecting more of the same in the rematch. Iowa is coming off a couple of poor shooting performances at home against Indiana (32.8%) and Maryland (41.9%) and will face a Ohio State defense that is only giving up 64.3 ppg on 40.8% shooting this season. This is also a game the Buckeyes desperately need, as a win over a ranked team would be huge for their NCAA Tournament resume. They really have no choice but to rely on their defense, as they have just not been able to get the offensive side of the ball figured out. Buckeyes are shooting a mere 39% from the field over their last 5. UNDER is 11-5 in Iowa's last 16 following a win and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 6-2-1 in Ohio State's last 9 off a SU loss and 5-2 in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in the series at Ohio State. Take the UNDER! |
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02-26-19 | Dayton v. Massachusetts +6 | 72-48 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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02-26-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech + I absolutely love the value here with the Hokies as a decently priced home dog against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to pull out a 75-65 win and cover as a 5-point road favorite at Syracuse on Saturday without Zion Williamson, but I think it's a bit misleading, as the Orange shot a miserable 34.3% from the field. Williamson won't be available against the Hokies and I just think it's asking a lot for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back on the road without their best player. Keep in mind Duke only shot 44.1% from the field in the win over Syracuse and that was after they shot a miserable 34.7% against UNC at home when Zion went down in the first minute of the game. Hokies have really been playing strong defense and we know we are going to get everything they have on that side of the ball in this one. I not only think it allows them to keep it within the number, but to win this game outright. Take Virginia Tech! |
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02-25-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas -3.5 | 49-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas - No hesitation take the Jayhawks as a short home favorite against red-hot Kansas State. I'm sure some will look to grab the points after watching Kansas get annihilated 91-62 at Texas Tech on Saturday, but that just makes me like them more. Any time a quality team like the Jayhawks gets embarrassed like they did by the Red Raiders, they almost always respond in a big way. On top of that, Kansas will be out for revenge from a loss earlier this month at K-State. Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off a road loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 ATS when that road loss is by 20 or more! Take Kansas! |
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02-25-19 | Bucks v. Bulls +11 | Top | 117-106 | Push | 0 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Bulls + Easy play here on the Bulls at home against the Bucks. Chicago comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they have won 3 straight. The most recent being a 126-116 win at home over the Celtics as a 10-point underdog. The game before that they won at Orlando as a 8-point dog. Not only are the Bulls playing well, but the Bucks will be playing this one without Giannis Antetokounmpo, as well as George Hill. Last time Antetokounmpo sat out Milwaukee got managed just 83 points on 33% shooting in a 20-point home loss to the Magic. While Jimmy and his long-term clients got the Bulls as a double-digit dog, this play is still recommended at the current line. Take Chicago! |
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02-25-19 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -9 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa State - The Cyclones should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Sooners. Iowa State has really let a couple of favorable matchups slip away in their last two games, as they have lost 73-69 at home to Baylor and 75-72 at TCU. I don't see the Cyclones making the same mistake here. In fact, I think we get one of the best efforts of the entire season from ISU tonight. Cyclones are averaging 80.1 ppg and only giving up 63.4 ppg at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 4.3 ppg in Big 12 play, while Oklahoma is getting outscored by 3.9 ppg. ISU has covered 6 of their last 8 following a SU loss. Cyclones are also 12-3-1 ATS last 16 times they have hosted Oklahoma and the home team is 4-0 ATS last 4. Take Iowa State! |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State + The public perception here is that the Spartans don't have a chance of going into Ann Arbor and beating the Wolverines. A big reason for that is the fact that Michigan is 16-0 at home, but more so the fact that Michigan State is down two of their best players in Joshua Langford and Nick Ward. I think it's going to have the Spartans coming out with a huge chip on their shoulder and has also created some value with the line, as my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Spartans are 12-4 ATS last 16 conference games, 10-2 ATS last 12 off a home win and 13-3 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record. Take Michigan State! |
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02-24-19 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 219 | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Raptors UNDER I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are calling for in Sunday's afternoon tilt between the Magic and Raptors. Orlando has really been playing well of late, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They held 3 of their final 4 opponents going into the break under 90 points. While they gave up 110 in a loss to Chicago in the first game back, they held the Bulls to just 44.4% shooting. This is one of those "measuring stick" games for the Magic against a team like Toronto, so we can bank on a big effort here on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto is a better defensive team than they get credit for and are only going to get better once the new pieces, like Marc Gasol get more comfortable with their new teammates. UNDER is 22-9 in the Magic's last 31 road games off a home loss by 3-points or less and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | 118-112 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Warriors - This might seem like a big number for Golden State to be laying, especially given the Rockets have won the first two meetings in the series, including a 135-134 win at Oracle as a 9-point dog in the last meeting. That's exactly why I like the Warriors here. This team has trouble getting up for meaningless regular-season games. They won't have any problem getting up for this one and I think they come out and lay it on the Rockets. Keep in mind that the Warriors were the ones to blame for the most recent loss to Houston, as they blew a 20-point lead. You also have to factor in that the Rockets may be without James Harden or at least he might be limited. Harden is listed as questionable with a cervical strain. Either way, I think the Warriors win here by double-digits. Take Golden State! |
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02-23-19 | Delaware +3.5 v. Drexel | 60-68 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware + Delaware should have no problem covering this small number at Drexel, as my numbers strongly suggest that the Blue Hens should be the ones favored. I just think we are getting a great number due to the fact that Delaware has gone just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Blue Hens are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8. Adding even more value here is a great system in play favoring a cover by the Blue Hens. Road teams who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when playing a marginal losing team. Take Delaware! |
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02-23-19 | Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +4 | 67-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Notre Dame + Virginia Tech continues to get way too much respect. While the Hokies come in ranked No. 20 in the country, this is not a Top 25 team right now. Virginia Tech just isn't the same team without Justin Robinson in the lineup. They were 17-3 with him on the floor and are just 3-3 without him. The even more telling stat is the Hokies 0-4-1 ATS record without Robinson. Notre Dame isn't a great team by any means, but are certainly a much tougher out on their home floor and have covered 3 of their last 5. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games. Hokies are 0-4 ATS last 4 off a game where they scored 60 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS last 6 when coming into a game having failed to cover 2 straight. Take Notre Dame! |
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02-23-19 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 65-80 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home. Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games. Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-23-19 | Marquette v. Providence +3.5 | 76-58 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Providence + Most are going to jump at backing No. 11 Marquette as slim road favorite against unranked Providence, but I'm not falling for the trap. The books are begging you to take the Golden Eagles, knowing full well that this is going to be a very tough spot for Marquette. The biggest thing is what's on deck, as the Eagles will travel to Villanova on Wednesday. Having already beat the Wildcats, Marquette will be in a position to put a stranglehold on the top spot of the Big East with another victory over Villanova. That game and the fact that the Golden Eagles defeat Providence by 11 on their home floor earlier this season, will make it hard for Marquette to show up here with a killer instinct. On the flip side of this, this game is one that the Friars will be 100% ready to go for. Not only do they want revenge from the earlier loss, but they haven't forgot about last year's home loss to Marquette, where Markus Howard torched them for 52 points. Friars are 14-4 ATS last 18 times revenging a loss where they allowed 75+ and a perfect 7-0 ATS at home the last 3 seasons vs top tier teams that are shooting 45% or better and allowing 42% or worse. Take Providence! |
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02-22-19 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 147-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz + I love the value here with Utah, as I fully expect the Jazz to go into OKC and upset the Thunder. I just think we are going to see Utah really come out in this game with a chip on their shoulder. These two have already played twice this season and the Thunder have won both meetings, so revenge is definitely in play for the Jazz. I'm not saying OKC isn't going to show up, but there's no doubt this one doesn't mean as much to them. Keep in mind we saw this team come out extremely flat in their final game before the break, losing by 9 and giving up 131 points at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite. Fading OKC in division games has been a wise move, as the Thunder are just 10-21 (32%) ATS over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are also a dominant 15-5 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and 13-2 ATS on the road in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ points/game. Take Utah! |
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02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets OVER 231 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Wizards OVER The Wizards and Hornets are going to have zero problem eclipsing the total set by the books tonight. The first meeting between these two teams this season saw a combined 256 points in a 130-126 win for Washington. That's now 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two that have finished OVER the mark. Washington is just a perfect team to play with the OVER. The Wizards rank in the Top 10 in the league in pace of play, they are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and the bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Charlotte also ranks top half of the league in offensive efficiency and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. No surprise these two played such a high-scoring game the first time around. Adding to this is a great system. OVER 63-35 (64%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 210 or more where one team (WASH) has gone over the total by 24 or more points in their last 3 games and the other (CHA) has gone under the total by 48 or more in their last 10. Take the OVER! |
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02-22-19 | Bowling Green v. Ohio OVER 143.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Ohio/Bowling Green OVER The books have completely missed the mark here with the total in Friday's MAC action between Bowling Green and Ohio. These two should have zero problem flying past the number set by the oddsmakers. The Falcons are a very strong offensive team, as they are averaging 78.9 ppg on the season and are at a tick higher at 80.2 ppg in conference play. I don't see them having any problem getting to the 80-point mark against the Bobcats, who are giving up 82.2 ppg over their last 5. I know Ohio's offense isn't the greatest, but they are averaging a healthy 75.8 ppg at home this season and the Falcons don't exactly play great defense. Bowling Green has allowed at least 67 points in each of their last 8 games. These two played earlier this season and combined for 145 and that was with Ohio scoring just 63 on the road. I think this time around they get into the 150's. Take the OVER! |
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02-21-19 | Suns v. Cavs | 98-111 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
3* NBA Money Line MASSACRE on Suns - I just really like this spot for Phoenix coming out of the All-Star break against another bad team in the Cavs. I just see the Suns being extremely motivated here to get a win after losing 15 straight going into the break. Cleveland is a mere 5-13 ATS in their 18 games against a team from the Western Conference this season and a miserable 14-37 ATS in their last 51 home games vs a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, the Suns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Take Phoenix! |
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02-21-19 | Heat +6 v. 76ers | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Heat + Philadelphia is getting way too much respect in the first game back from the All-Star break, especially given the 76ers will be playing without All-Star big man Joel Embiid, who is out at least a week with a sore knee. Not only will Philadelphia being playing short-handed, but it wouldn't be a huge shock to see this team come out flat in the first game back. As for the Heat, they are currently tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. This is a game they should be extremely motivated to play, especially given they will be getting back their star point guard in Goran Dragic. It's also worth noting Miami is a rare team that's actually been better on the road than they have at home. Heat are 15-14 on the road and just 11-16 at home. No surprise they are 18-11 ATS in those 29 road games. Going back even further, we see that the Heat are 32-19 ATS in their last 51 as a road underdog. Take Miami! |
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02-21-19 | James Madison +11.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke -9 | 88-72 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Rivalry (UNC/Duke) NO-BRAINER on Duke - I'm laying the big number here with the Blue Devils at home. I got nothing but respect for Roy Williams and the Tar Heels, but I just think Duke is head and shoulders the best team in the ACC. Usually the Blue Devils would be the public play, but with how much people like UNC and how well they have been playing, the public will be heavy on the Tar Heels. I just don't think North Carolina has the fire-power to keep this game within single-digits. Duke knows they are a great team and because of that they are going to have some closer than expected games against bad teams. Simply because they don't give their opponent the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here. This is every bit a statement game for the Blue Devils as it is the Tar Heels. Last time out Duke beat NC State 94-78, but failed to cover as a 17-point favorite. That's fine by me, as the Blue Devils are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a home win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off a home win where they won but failed to cover. Take Duke! |
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02-20-19 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Ohio State | 49-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northwestern + Ohio State has no business laying this many points against Northwestern. The Wildcats are simply way undervalued right now because they have lost 6 straight. Most people just focus on the wins and losses and simply ignore that they have had some really tough losses during this stretch, including an excruciating 80-79 loss at Iowa and a 3-point defeat the next time out against Rutgers. I'm not saying the losing streak will come to an end against the Buckeyes, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Northwestern win here. Ohio State is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games. All 4 of those wins coming against bad team and 2 of those were by 4-points or less. Last time they were at home they lost 63-56 as a 8-point favorite against Illinois and the time before that they barely beat Penn State by 4 as a 7-point favorite. Buckeyes are just a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games overall, while the Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their previous 10 games. Take Northwestern! |
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02-19-19 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Penn State | 71-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska + I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Nebraska as a small road dog against Penn State. Most are going to want nothing to do with the Cornhuskers given their 2019 slide, but they finally are playing with some confidence. Nebraska followed up a much-needed win at home over Minnesota with a 9-point victory over Northwestern. As good as this spot may look For Penn State, were talking about a team that has won a mere 2 Big Ten games all season and lost outright the two previous times they were laying points at home. First it was a 7-point loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite, then it was a 4-point setback as a 6.5-point favorite against Rutgers. Cornhuskers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference win, 7-1 ATS last 8 off a home win and 9-1 ATS last 10 after a game where they held an opponent to 55 points or less. Take Nebraska! |
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02-18-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State + I don't think the Horned Frogs should be a favorite on the road against the Cowboys. I get that Oklahoma State is down and come in having lost 5 straight, but for the most part this team has been competitive. More than anything, TCU isn't a team I would be wanting to lay points with on the road, especially with the Horned Frogs unlikely to have one of their best players in Kouat Noi. Noi is basically tied with Demond Bane as the teams top scorer. Bane averages 14.9 ppg and Noi is at 14.8 ppg. What they really miss with Noi is his 3-point shooting. His 49 made 3-pointers are 10 more than the next best on the team and he's missed 5 games. The offense looked lost without him in Saturday's 9-point home loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point favorite. Noi is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Ankles typically take at least a week to recover from and if he's not good enough to go Saturday hard to imagine he will be on the floor Monday. TCU is also just 1-10 ATS last 11 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Oklahoma State! |
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02-17-19 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4 | 81-75 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Creighton - The Bluejays should have no problem covering this small number at home against Seton Hall. This is one of those quick rematches in conference play, as these two just played at Seton Hall on Feb. 9th. The Pirates squeaked out a 63-58 win at home, which really wasn't a surprise given the home/away splits of these two teams. This time I expect the roles to be reversed and I think there's a decent chance Creighton turns this into a blowout. Note that the Bluejays only lost by 5 at Seton Hall, despite shooting just 30.3% from the field. Pirates are allowing teams to shoot 46% against them on the road and Creighton is averaging 83.7 ppg on 51.6% shooting at home this season. Bluejays are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-2 ATS last 13 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 8-1 ATS last 9 at home off a road loss. Take Creighton! |
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02-16-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -3 | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Tennessee/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky - I get that the Volunteers are ranked No. 1 in the country, but no way am I passing up on the Wildcats as a small home favorite in this one. There's no debating that Tennessee is one of the top teams not just in the SEC but the entire country. However, I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. The Vols are a perfect 10-0 in SEC play, but have not faced either of the two top tier teams in LSU and Kentucky. Their road games inside the conference so far have been against Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-43 in league play. At the same time, I think this Kentucky team is a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Sure they weren't as good as expected out of the gate, but they have been playing as well as anyone over the last 2 months. You also can't ignore the fact that the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when matched up against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. Take Kentucky! |
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02-16-19 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +2.5 | 81-73 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Fresno St/N Mexico MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico + I think the books have made a big mistake making the Lobos a home dog. Fresno State might have the better overall record and a stronger mark in conference play, but New Mexico is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play well. That's evident by the fact that that the Lobos are a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against conference opponents, which has seen them win by an average of 13.4 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that New Mexico is 8-3 ATS last 11 as a home underdog, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark this season. It's also worth noting that the Lobos are off a 92-60 win against San Jose State, as they are 8-2 ATS last 10 off a win by 30 or more over a conference rival. Take New Mexico! |
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02-16-19 | William & Mary -4 v. Elon | Top | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary - I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered. Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary! |
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02-16-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -10.5 | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas - The Longhorns should have no problem covering this double-digit spread at home against the Cowboys. I'm expecting a very motivated and focused Texas team on Saturday. Not only are the Longhorns going to be ready to go after getting upset on their home floor by Kansas State, but they will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Oklahoma State. I think if Texas comes into this one with the right mentality, they are going to turn this into a blowout rather quickly. The Cowboys have been on a free-fall. Oklahoma State has lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their last 3 games they have lost by 18 to Kansas State, 2 to TCU, 12 to Kansas and 28 to Texas Tech. Prior to the loss to K-State, Texas has really been playing well with 3 double-digit wins in their previous 4 games. The only exception a close road loss at Iowa State where they easily covered as 8-point dogs. Longhorns are 13-5 ATS under Smart off a home loss and 20-10 ATS under Smart revenging a road loss. Take Texas! |
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02-16-19 | Clemson +5 v. Louisville | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson + This is a great spot to grab the points and fade Louisville at home. This is one of the more difficult spots you will find a team. The Cardinals come into game off one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the entire season. Louisville had a 23-point over Duke midway through the 2nd half and somehow managed to suffer a 71-69 loss. That's now 3 losses in the last 4 games for the Cardinals, whose confidence has to be shattered after what happened against the Blue Devils. I not only think they will have a hard time covering the spread here against Clemson, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Tigers won this game outright. Clemson got off to a slow start in ACC play, going just 1-5 in their first 6 conference games. They have bounced back in a big way, going 4-1 over their last 5 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. Tigers are now 12-4 ATS last 16 after 15+ games vs a quality opponent that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off a road loss as a favorite are just 29-62 (32%) ATS since 1997. Take Clemson! |
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02-15-19 | Marist +4 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Metro Atlantic Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Marist + I love the value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Bobcats. Marist comes in off back-to-back wins and have covered 4 of their last 5, including a 78-71 win at Canisius as a 4-point dog. These two teams played earlier in the season and Quinnipiac won by 14-points. However, Marist shot 54% from the field and were only down 2-points at the half. They basically lost the game at the free throw line, where they went 7 of 14. Red Foxes are 34-18 ATS last 52 off a home win by 10 or more and the underdog is 8-3 ATS last 11 in the series. Bobcats are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs a marginal losing team (win percent 40% to 49%) and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-points at least 15+ games into the season. Take Marist! |
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02-14-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans +5.5 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Pelicans + The betting public is all over the Thunder in this one, as they want absolutely nothing to do with New Orleans after watching them score just 88-points in a 30-point defeat at home to the Magic. Especially when they are going up against the dynamic duo of Russell Westbrook and and Paul George. I know the trade rumors have taken a toll on this team and they clearly seemed uninterested against Orlando, but more times than not teams are going to lay an egg against a bad team like the Magic. At the same time, we almost always see a max effort following an embarrassing loss, especially at home in a nationally televised game like we have here. Also, you have to factor in just how motivated is OKC for this game. They have been rolling and it's the last stop before the All-Star break. There's no desperate need to win this game and it's going to be hard for them to take New Orleans seriously after that loss to Orlando. My money is on Anthony Davis and the Pelicans showing up for this one and at least keeping it close. Take New Orleans! |
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02-14-19 | Delaware +2 v. Towson | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware + This is a great spot to jump on the Blue Hens as a small road dog against the Tigers. My numbers suggest that Delaware should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Blue Hens are simply being undervalued here because they come in having gone 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6, while Towson is 5-1 ATS in their last 6. We will definitely take the points and it doesn't hurt that the Underdog has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series. The Blue Hens are also a dominant 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a losing home record, while the Tigers are a miserable 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take Delaware! |
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02-14-19 | Houston v. Connecticut +9.5 | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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02-14-19 | Drexel +1 v. James Madison | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel + Love the value here with Drexel as a pick'em on the road against James Madison. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won 73-68 at home. The Dukes were very lucky to lose by just 5. Drexel shot a miserable 20% from 3-point range (3-15). Expect much better shooting this time around, as the Dragons are coming off a game against Charleston where they shot 54% from the field for the game. Drexel has also covered each of their last 7 games and are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Adding to all this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Dukes. In games involving two marginal losing teams (winning 40% to 49%) the home team is a mere 28-58 ATS if they have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games. That's a 67% system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! |
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02-13-19 | Minnesota +165 v. Nebraska | 61-62 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Minnesota + I think the books have made a big mistake here making Nebraska a small home favorite. So much that I say forget grabbing the points with Minnesota and go for the much bigger payday on the money line. The Cornhuskers are a complete mess right now. Since going on the road and upsetting Indiana 66-51 back on Jan. 14, Nebraska has lost 7 straight games and in the process lost one of their best players in Isaac Copeland Jr. The offense for Nebraska has been downright atrocious during this run. All 7 losses during the losing streak have seen them shoot worse than 42% from the field, including a couple of games where they shot under 30%. It doesn't matter if you are home or away, if you can't score, you aren't going to win many games. Minnesota has lost 3 straight, which is playing into the value here, but those 3 are all excusable (@ Purdue, vs Wisconsin, @ Michigan St). Gophers are simply the much better team. Take Minnesota! |
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02-13-19 | Creighton v. Xavier +105 | 61-64 | Win | 105 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier + I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with Xavier due to the fact the Musketeers come in having lost 6 straight with the most recent being an upset loss at home to DePaul. Plus, they just lost at Creighton by 22 on Feb. 3. As bad as it's going for Xavier they should not be a home dog to the Bluejays. Creighton 1-4 in their last 5 conference road games and will be in the difficult spot here of playing their 3rd straight on the road. This is an Xavier team that has home wins over the likes of Georgetown and Butler, as well as a mere 2-point loss at home to Providence and a 5-point loss to Marquette. Musketeers are 21-7 SU in their last 28 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more and 8-1 SU in their last 9 at home off a home loss as a favorite. Take Xavier! |
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02-13-19 | Bucks v. Pacers +155 | 106-97 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NBA Money Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Pacers + I really like this spot for the Pacers and actually think they should be favored in this matchup, which is why I'm passing up on taking the points and playing Indiana on the money line. The Pacers come into this one having won 6 straight and while the wins haven't come against the top-tier teams, you just have to look at how bad they are beating these teams during this run. I just think this game means a lot more to the Pacers than it does the Bucks, who I think could have their eyes already set on the All-Star break. Indiana's Banker Life Fieldhouse hasn't been a great place to visit of late for Milwaukee, as the Bucks have lost their last 4 trips, including a 113-97 loss back in December. Pacers have won 20 out of their last 25 games at home when they come in having led in their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half and are 41-18 SU in their last 59 when entering off 3 straight covers. Take Indiana! |
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02-12-19 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5 | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Public ATS SHOCKER on Grizzlies + A lot of people are going to be quick to jump on the Spurs in this matchup. Memphis just traded away one of their best players in Marc Gasol and have not been playing all that great over the last few months. San Antonio on the other hand is coming off 3 straight losses, which will have people assuming they get back on track with a win here. The new-look Grizzlies just beat the Pelicans 99-90 as a 1-point home dog and a lot of the new faces made some solid contributions. This game they are expected to add another, as Janus Valanciunas is expected to make his Memphis debut. As for the Spurs, I think they are really struggling right now because of the recent injury to Derrick White, leaving them extremely thin at the point. This is also San Antonio's 5th straight on the road and final stop before the All-Star break. I think the struggles continue and Memphis wins this outright. Grizzlies have covered 6 of their last 8 and are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home. Take Memphis! |
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02-12-19 | Marquette v. DePaul +3.5 | 92-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on DePaul + I really like this spot for the Blue Demons. DePaul comes in off a come-from-behind 74-62 win at Xavier as a 4-point dog, giving them back-to-back wins since a hard fought loss at home to Villanova. Speaking of Villanova, Marquette just handed the Wildcats their first loss in conference play this past Saturday in a thrilling 66-65 win at home. That was hands down the biggest game of the season for the Golden Eagles and that makes this game against DePaul a huge letdown spot, especially since Marquette already beat the Blue Demons by double-digits earlier this season. Road favorites who are a top level team (won 80% or more) that are coming off a home win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 71-117 ATS in their next game if facing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). That's a 62% long-term trend that dates back to 1997 in favor of the Blue Demons. Take DePaul! |
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02-12-19 | Purdue v. Maryland +2.5 | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Maryland + This is the ideal spot to fade the Boilermakers. Purdue comes into this game having won 8 straight and are simply overvalued because of it. No way should Maryland be a dog on their home floor. Note that 5 of the Boilermakers 8 wins during this run have come at home and two of their road wins were against Penn St and Ohio St. Maryland hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play, as they come in a perfect 5-0. They are just 2-3 in their last 5, but two of those losses came on the road against Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Terps rebounded from the loss to the Badgers with 60-45 thrashing of the Cornhuskers in Nebraska last time out. No one expected Maryland to be as good as they are, which is why they are showing such great value against a team like Purdue. Keep in mind these two teams already played once this season and the Terps narrowly loss 62-60 on the Boilermakers home court. In the win over Nebraska the Terps held the Cornhuskers to just 21.1% shooting. Maryland is 32-13 ATS last 45 at home after holding a team to 33% or worse shooting. Purdue is also 23-42 ATS last 65 on the road after two straight games as a home favorite. Terps have also covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Take Maryland! |
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02-11-19 | Kansas v. TCU -2.5 | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
4* TCU/Kansas Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU - This is just too good a price to pass up on the Horned Frogs at home against the Jayhawks. Kansas is a team that gets all kinds of love, which is why they are still sitting at No. 13 in the country, despite the fact that they are just 7-4 in the Big 12 and have lost some big pieces to injury, including a season-ending injury to big man Udoka Azubiuke. They also are expected to be without second-leading scorer Lagerlad Vick, while Marcus Garrett is questionable after missing the last 3. Kansas has played 7 true road games and are 1-6 in those contests. TCU is 11-1 at home this season and are a perfect 4-0 at home. Horned Frogs also come in off an impressive 9-point win at ISU as a 9.5-point dog. Take TCU! |
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02-11-19 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Blazers UNDER I think we are going to get a big defensive effort from both of these teams, which will have this game staying well below the big total set by the books. These are two division rivals fighting for a top seed in the Western Conference. OKC is currently No. 3 in the standings, but are just 3-games ahead of Portland. The Thunder have already won each of the first two meetings, and can secure the tie-breaker with a win here (teams meet one last time in early March). That really makes this one important for Portland, who is also going to be highly motivated coming off a loss at Dallas where they blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead. UNDER is 21-10-1 in the Thunder's last 32 vs a team with a winning record, 13-4 in the Blazers last 17 division games and 17-7 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! |
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02-11-19 | Clippers v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 120-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves - I really like this spot for Minnesota as a small home favorite. This has to feel like a must-win for the Timberwolves, who have lost 4 straight and are now 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. The team sitting in 8th is the Clippers, which should only add that much more motivation here. As for LAC, they made it clear they are more focused on the future than the present with the deals they made at the trade deadline. I get they come in off a 123-112 upset win at Boston as a 11.5-point dog, but they trailed by 28 (trailed 43-20 after 1st quarter) and benefited from the Celtics losing All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving to injury in the 2nd quarter. Each of their last 3 wins have come with them trailing by at least 20. They followed up each of the last two rallies with losses by 19 or more. Part of Minnesota's struggles is they have had their top 3 point guards out of the lineup. Jeff Teague is back and should make a bigger contribution in his second game back and there's a chance Derrick Rose returns after practicing on Sunday. Take Minnesota! |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -3.5 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Houston - Too much value here with Houston laying such a short number at home. The Cougars are a perfect 16-0 at home this season and are riding a massive 31-game home winning streak overall. Houston is outscoring opponents 77.4 to 59.9 on their home floor. Cincinnati is a quality team, but they are simply getting way to much respect from the books here because they come in having won 8 straight and gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Cougars are 42-22 ATS last 64 games at home as a favorite of 6 or less, 20-7-1 ATS last 28 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Houston! |
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02-10-19 | Lakers +6.5 v. 76ers | 120-143 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lakers + This is just too many points to pass up with the Lakers. Last time out Los Angeles rallied from a double-digit deficit at Boston in a thrilling 129-128 win. That's the kind of win that they can not only build on, but I think it really helps them get over all the trade rumors they had to deal with over the previous week. Philadelphia looked impressive in their first game with Tobais Harris, taking down the Nuggets 117-110 at home, but I think they are way overvalued here. That was a short-handed Denver team and they let the Nuggets shoot 49% from the field. Defense has really slipped for the 76ers of late. Lakers are 13-4 ATS last 17 after playing 3 straight on the road and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after allowing 120+ points in their previous game. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS last 13 after playing 2 straight at home. Take Los Angeles! |
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02-09-19 | Wizards v. Bulls OVER 220.5 | 134-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Wizards/Bulls OVER We cashed in an easy winner on the Bulls/Nets OVER last night, as those two combined for 231. While Chicago was playing in a shootout, the Wizards combined for 225 to go OVER the total with the Cavs. It just continued a trend of high-scoring games for both of these teams. The OVER has cashed in the Wizards last 4 and 6 of their last 7. The OVER is also cashed in 4 of the last 5 for the Bulls. Washington has scored 115+ in 4 straight and have allowed 130+ in 3 of their last 4. The only team not to reach the mark is the worthless Cavs. Bulls have scored 118+ in 3 straight and 100 or more in every game since Jan. 4. Take the OVER! |
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02-09-19 | Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor - Love the value here with Baylor at basically a pick'em on their home floor. The Bears come in off a 12-point loss at Texas, but played well enough to win, the Longhorns simply couldn't miss (shot 55%). Baylor had won and covered 6 straight prior to that loss and I'm confident they return back to form. They have won 3 straight at home and are 7-1 ATS over their 6-3 start to Big 12 play. K-State has been playing well, but this is a big letdown spot for the Wildcats coming off a huge win at Kansas. Bears are 7-1 ATS lat 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog, 7-0 ATS last 7 after covering 4 of their last 5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Take Baylor! |
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02-09-19 | Duke v. Virginia -1 | 81-71 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Duke/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia - I just can't pass up a play on Virginia at basically a pick'em on their home court against Duke. The Cavaliers only loss this season was a mere 2-point loss at Duke back on Jan. 19th. You can bet that Virginia has had this one circled since that loss. I expect the very best the Cavs have to offer here. As for Duke, we all know how good they are, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here on the road in one of the hardest places in the country to get a win. Note that while the Blue Devils are 4-0 on the road in ACC play, those 4 have come against Wake Forest, Florida State, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The only one of those teams with more than 2 conference wins is FSU and Duke only won by 2 at the Seminoles. Take Virginia! |
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02-08-19 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 223.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Nets OVER The Bulls/Nets should have zero problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The average score in Chicago's last 5 games is 225.2 and for Brooklyn the average score in their last 5 games is 226.6. Bulls defense has been non-existent in their last 2, giving up 125 to both the Pelicans and Hornets. Chicago's offense on the other hand is shooting lights out, having hit 50% from the field in each of their last 4. Brooklyn just gave up 130 to the Nuggets in a game that saw 265 total points scored, as both teams shot over 50% from the field. OVER is 32-18 in the Bulls last 50 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points (last 3 seasons). OVER is also 6-1 lat 7 for Chicago on the road against a team with a winning home record. Adding even more value here is a big time system that has cashed 76% over the last 5 seasons. The OVER is 44-14 in the month of February when you have a game with a 1st half total greater than 100 and a team (Nets) that went over the total by more than 30 points in their last game. Take the OVER! |