|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-02-20||Troy State +4 v. Louisiana-Monroe||Top||63-79||Loss||-110||11 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy State +4 -110
Absolutely love the value here with the Trojans as a road dog against ULM. While both teams come in with similarly poor records, Troy is 4-2 over their last 6 and working on a 5-1 ATS run.
Warhawks have lost 5 straight and their 4 wins this season have come against the likes of Louisiana College, Alcorn State, Northwestern St and Millsaps College. Two of those games didn't have a line and the other two they were double-digit favorites.
No way should ULM be favored here. Warhawks are a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Trojans are also 7-3 ATS last 10 games when listed as a dog. Take Troy!
|01-02-20||Nuggets v. Pacers -1||124-116||Loss||-109||10 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers -1 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with Indiana at home. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home floor this season with a 15-3 SU mark. They are outscoring opponents at home by 7.3 ppg and just won in a very similar spot in their last game, beating the 76ers 115-97 as a mere 3.5-point home favorite.
Denver is just getting too much love here, especially with how they have been playing. While the Nuggets are 9-2 in their last 10, they are just 2-2 in their last 4 and off a ugly 130-104 loss at Houston. They are also a mere 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
Denver is also 1-6-2 ATS last 9 road games vs a team with a winning record and have not covered any of their last 5 games when coming off a loss by 10 or more. Pacers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Indiana!
|01-02-20||Tennessee -2.5 v. Indiana||23-22||Loss||-114||10 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Tennessee/Indiana GATOR BOWL on Tennessee -2½ -114
I think we are getting a great price here with the Vols laying less than a field goal against the Hoosiers in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee might be one of the worst in the SEC, but I still think there's no doubt they are the more talented team.
I also love how the Vols finished the season with 5 straight wins and were 6-1 ATS over their last 7. Indian went 8-4, but really struggled against the better teams in the Big Ten. In fact, the Hoosiers didn't have a single win all season over a FBS team that finished with a winning record.
Playing on a neutral field hasn't been kind to Indiana, as they are a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 times on a neutral site. Vols are 6-1 ATS last 7 on a neutral site as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games when laying points. They have also covered 4 straight against the Big Ten. Take Tennessee!
|01-02-20||Georgia State v. Appalachian State -2||69-60||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Appalachian State -2 -110
Really like the value here with the Mountaineers at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Panthers. For starters, this is a great buy low spot on Appalachian State coming off a 12-point loss to NC State.
The Mountaineers have thrived in this spot, going 12-2 ATS last 14 times after a loss by 10 or more points. App State had also been playing well prior to the setback, as they had won their previous 4 games. Mountaineers are 22-10 ATS last 32 at home when they come in having won 4 of 5.
Georgia State is off to a strong 9-4 start and are 8-1 in their last 9 games, but are in a tough scheduling spot playing on just 2 days of rest. Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS last 4 as a favorite and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take Appalachian State!
|01-02-20||Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina -1.5||70-67||Loss||-110||7 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Coastal Carolina -1½ -110
The books have completely missed the mark in this one. These two teams come in with identical records, but are simply not giving the Chanticleers the kind of respect they deserve at home, especially with how much worse the Eagles have been on the road. Georgia Southern is a perfect 6-0 at home, but are just 2-5 on the road.
Coastal Carolina is also playing well with 5 wins over their last 6 games and a 3-1 ATS mark in their last 4. Chanticleers should have their way on the offensive end in this one. They are averaging 82 ppg and shooting 47.3% from the field. They will facing an Eagles defense that has an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% (295th) on the defensive end.
Chanticleers are a dominant 20-9-1 ATS last 30 games off a SU win, while the Eagles are 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road dog and 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Coastal Carolina!
|01-01-20||New Mexico -10 v. San Jose State||Top||85-88||Loss||-110||20 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico -10 -110
I love the Lobos winning by double-digits and covering the spread on the road against the Spartans. This is a complete mismatch in terms of talent. New Mexico is 13-2 and come into this one having won 8 straight. San Jose State is a mere 4-10 and are 1-8 in their last 9 games.
Spartans really don't do anything well. They are shooting a worthless 39.3% from the field on offense and are allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field. New Mexico is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse and allowing 45% or better.
San Jose State did cover in a home win over Pepperdine in their last game, but that's a positive here, as the Spartans are 0-6 ATS last 6 home games off a cover and 1-10 ATS last 11 overall off a cover in general. Take New Mexico!
|01-01-20||Baylor v. Georgia -7||14-26||Win||100||518 h 27 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Baylor/Georgia SUGAR BOWL on Georgia -7 -110
I know Georgia has a lot of players down on both sides of the football, but I just don't think it's going to be enough to keep them from winning this game. Baylor gets a lot of love for how tough they played Oklahoma, but after watching how overmatched the Sooners were in their semifinal matchup with LSU, there's clearly a massive gap from the top of the SEC to the top of the Big 12.
I get Georgia wasn't as elite as they have been in previous years, but this is still a really talented football team. They are absolutely loaded with talent, so while some key guys will be out I don't think they will be missed in this one.
I get this isn't a great spot for Georgia after losing the SEC title game to miss out on the playoffs, but it's the same thing with Baylor. I actually think the Bulldogs will be fine, as they can look back at last year and how poorly they played in their bowl game after losing the SEC title game to Alabama. Simply put, Baylor just isn't good enough to keep this close. Take Georgia!
|01-01-20||Blazers v. Knicks +4||93-117||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Knicks +4 -105
I really like the value here with the Knicks as a home dog against the Blazers. New York has really improved over the last 3+ weeks. They are 5-4 in their last 9 games after starting the season 4-20. They have covered 6 of their last 9 games and I like them to win this one outright.
Portland has lost 4 straight and it just keeps getting worse for the Blazers. After really dominating the Suns for 3 quarters in their last game they got outscored 39-27 in the 4th to lose 116-122. I just don't trust the Blazers on a mere 1-day of rest after having to travel clear across the country (nearly 3,000 miles) for this game, especially with it being over New Years.
Blazers are a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 235 or more and the Knicks are 12-2 ATS last 14 at home after winning 2 of their last 3 games. Take New York!
|01-01-20||Connecticut +3 v. Cincinnati||51-67||Loss||-109||17 h 44 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut +3 -109
The Huskies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Bearcats. Cincinnati is just getting a little too much love here at home. Bearcats have lost 3 of their last 4, including an ugly home loss to Colgate as a 12.5-point favorite.
Not to mention Cincinnati has been one of the worst bets in the country early on, as the Bearcats are 3-9 ATS. It's the exact opposite for Connecticut. Huskies come in having won 3 straight and 8 of their last 10. They are also a dominant 9-3 ATS on the season, including a 3-1 ATS mark away from home.
Turnovers should be a key part in the Huskies cover here. UConn ranks 28th in defensive turnover rate, while the Bearcats are 238th in offensive turnover rate (average 15 turnovers/game).
There's also a great system here favoring the Huskies. Road teams off 3 or more consecutive home wins with a line of +3 to -3 are a dominant 97-52 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take UConn!
|01-01-20||South Dakota -1 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||59-70||Loss||-111||13 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Dakota -1 -111
The Coyotes are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against IUPU-Ft Wayne. I just feel we are getting value with South Dakota due to the fact that they come in off 3 straight losses as a favorite.
The recent struggles for the Coyotes can be pinpointed to the absence of starting point guard Triston Simpson. He had missed 7 games before returning for their last contest. He just had a bad first game back going 3 of 14 from the field. He should be much better in game two.
South Dakota is 13-4 ATS last 17 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite. Mastodons are just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 off a loss and 2-5-2 ATS last 9 as an underdog. Simply put the Coyotes should be laying a much bigger number here. Take South Dakota!
|01-01-20||Michigan +7.5 v. Alabama||Top||16-35||Loss||-110||511 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAF -Alabama/Michigan New Year's BOWL OF THE YEAR on Michigan +7½ -110
I love the Wolverines getting a touchdown and the hook against Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. While both teams ended the year with losses to their biggest rival, the Crimson Tide's was a lot more costly. Alabama's crushing 45-48 loss to Auburn knocked them out of the playoff race and for the first time since the playoff format was introduced they are not one of the 4 teams participating.
I just think that makes this a really tough spot for Alabama to show up and it's not like we haven't seen this before when the Crimson Tide missed out on the BCS with a late loss and didn't show up in their bowl. On top of a lack of motivation, the Crimson Tide have a number of guys sitting out and are really decimated on the defensive side of the ball.
Michigan had hopes of making the playoff, but those were put to rest a long time ago and I think they will have no problem here getting up for a shot at Alabama. Michigan's defense won't have to worry about facing Tua, which is a big plus, but more than anything I think a Wolverines offense that got better and better as the season went on will be able to do more than enough to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Take Michigan!
|12-31-19||Clippers v. Kings +7||Top||105-87||Loss||-105||15 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +7 -105
I love the value here with Sacramento as a big home dog against the Clippers. Kings are going to get up for this one against what many consider to be one of the favorites to win it all. Sacramento is also trying desperately to put an end to their losing streak which is up to 7 games now.
Thing is the Kings have been so close in a number of these games during their skid. In fact, 5 have been decided by single-digits, including each of the last 4. Clippers are off a ugly 13-point loss at home to Utah and are just 3-4 in their last 7 games.
I think this will be a tough spot for LA to get up with it being New Year's Eve and them returning home after this game for 4 in a row. Clippers also won't have the services of Beverley and he's a guy that really ignites the energy of this team.
Kings are 18-8 ATS last 26 after a loss by 6 or more, 12-4 ATS last 16 off a cover and 9-1 ATS last 10 when off a road loss where they covered as a dog. Take Sacramento!
|12-31-19||Cal-Riverside v. Air Force -4||56-105||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Air Force -4 -110
You have a 6-7 Air Force team that is laying a decent number against a 9-5 UC-Riverside squad, which tells you the records of these two are very misleading. I couldn't agree more with the books and actually see value here with the Falcons.
Air Force has simply played the tougher schedule and should have a big home court edge in this one, as the Highlanders are just 3-4 away from home and only scoring 61.3 ppg on the road. That inability to score on the road will be a problem against a Falcons team that is averaging 82.8 ppg and shooting 53% from the field on their home floor.
Riverside did have an upset win at Fresno State in their last game, but are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an win as a dog and 0-6 ATS when off a win as a road dog. Falcons are 18-7 ATS last 25 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 7 or more days of rest. Take Air Force!
|12-31-19||Celtics v. Hornets +7||109-92||Loss||-105||7 h 49 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hornets +7 -105
Charlotte is worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Celtics. Hornets come in having lost 5 straight, but we know we are going to get a big effort here at home against a team like Boston.
As for the Celtics, I think this is a real tough spot for Boston. Celtics have been all over the place of late. They were at Toronto last Wednesday for that Christmas Day matchup, got a day off before having to play back-to-back games at home and now have to travel to Charlotte on New Year's Even before heading right back home (next two days off). Real easy for the Celtics to just go through the motions in this one.
Hornets are a decent team to back when on a skid, as they are 22-10 ATS last 32 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 4 or more losses in the month of December are a strong 49-29 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Charlotte!
|12-31-19||Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State||14-20||Loss||-110||5 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Florida St/Arizona St SUN BOWL on Florida State +4½ -110
I like the value here with the Seminoles in their Sun Bowl showdown with Arizona State. I just don't get why the Sun Devils are getting so much love in this one.
Head coach Herm Edwards fired a bunch of his offensive staff and if that wasn't going to be enough to overcome, ASU's two biggest weapons at the skill positions are both sitting out for the draft in running back Eno Benjamin and wide out Brandon Aiyuk.
As for Florida State, they will be down their top two backs with Cam Akers also skipping to prepare for the draft and backup Khalan Labron out with an injury. However, they got plenty of talent at that position and should be able to throw all over this Sun Devils defense. Seminoles ended the year with the 33rd rank passing offense and will be up against a ASU secondary that ranked 114th against the pass. Give me Florida State +4.5!
|12-31-19||Temple -2 v. UCF||Top||62-58||Win||100||5 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -2 -109
I'll lay the short number with the Owls on the road against UCF. I just think the matchup here heavily favors Temple. The Owls are so good at forcing teams to beat them from outside the paint, as they just don't give up easy baskets inside. That's a big problem for the Knights, who just don't have a lot of shooting. UCF comes in shooting a mere 30.6% from deep.
Another thing is the Knights rely a lot on getting second chance points by attacking the offensive glass and defensive rebounding is a big strength and priority for the Owls. Temple's defense has also only gotten better with the recent insertion of Jake Forrester into the starting lineup.
Owls are also a great team to back away from home. Temple is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road against a team with a winning road record. Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Temple!
|12-30-19||Suns v. Blazers -4||122-116||Loss||-109||18 h 11 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Blazers -4 -109
Easy play here on Portland laying a really small price at home against the Suns. Blazers are coming off a hard fought 128-120 loss at home to Lakers, but were simply not happy with the result and it was their 3rd straight setback after they put together a 4-game winning streak.
I'm expecting a max effort here from Portland and I think that will be more than enough to take down what should be a tired Suns team that is playing their 3rd road game in a 4 day stretch. Phoenix did get an upset win at Sacramento in their last game, but only won by 2 and had lost 8 straight prior to the victory.
Blazers have only failed to cover once in their last 5 when laying points at home. Suns are just 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU win and 1-9 in their last 10 off a win by 6 or less points. Take Portland!
|12-30-19||Pistons v. Jazz -9||Top||81-104||Win||100||23 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA -Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -9 -110
This is an easy play here on the Jazz, who should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against a depleted Pistons team. Detroit has 4 key contributors who won't suit up for this game in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard.
It would have been hard enough for the Pistons to keep this close if they were full strength. They had the services of Griffin in their last game at San Antonio, but still managed to lose that game 136-109. Detroit's only win in their last 7 games is against a bad Wizards team at home. All 6 losses have been by 11 or more points.
Utah is also coming in playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 7 of their last 8, including a 120-107 win at the Clippers last time out as a 7-point dog. Take Utah!
|12-30-19||George Mason v. TCU -8.5||53-87||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU -8½ -110
The Horned Frogs should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against the Patriots. George Mason comes in at 11-1 and it's simply got them getting way to much respect against a superior opponent. The Patriots impressive start is a direct result of them playing the 327th ranked strength of schedule. Their only game against a team ranked inside the Top 100 in KenPom was vs Maryland and they lost by 23.
Another reason we are getting value is the fact that while TCU is a respectable 8-3 to start the year, they have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. There's nothing wrong with their 3 losses, as they have come against the likes of Clemson, USC and Xavier. All 3 coming by 8 or fewer points.
Once the Horned Frogs starting hit their shots they are going to be a real tough out in the Big 12 and with this being their final tune-up before conference play I think we see them lay it on the Patriots. Take TCU!
|12-30-19||Virginia +14.5 v. Florida||28-36||Win||100||22 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Virginia/Florida ORANGE BOWL on Virginia +14½ -105
This is just too many points to pass up on a play with Virginia. There's no question that Florida is the more talented team, but I just feel like this line is a huge overreaction to the Cavaliers embarrassing 62-17 loss to Clemson. The thing you have to keep in mind is Clemson, Ohio State and LSU were on a whole different level than the rest of the country.
This is a Florida team that keep in mind only beat Miami by 4 in their season opener and had several close calls throughout the year against teams they had the talent edge against. I just think with all the talk about how the Gators are going to dominate this game, they might have a hard time here giving Virginia the respect they deserve.
As for the Cavaliers, they have to be itching to get back on the field after that ugly loss to the Tigers and show everyone they are a better team than that score would indicate. I'm not expecting a win by Virginia, but look for this to be a lot closer game than the line would suggest. Take Virginia!
|12-30-19||Youngstown State v. Illinois-Chicago -3.5||Top||70-64||Loss||-110||19 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois-Chicago -3½ -110
I love the value here with the Flames laying a short number at home against the Penguins. UIC has won each of their last two games and are in a great buy low spot, as they just recently got back one of their top scorers in Marcus Ottey. He's played in just the last 4 games and scored double-figures in all 4.
It's also worth noting that while the Flames are just 6-8 overall, they have had 3 losses by 4 or fewer points. Youngstown State is getting some love after covering 4 straight, but this is not an ideal spot for the Penguins are who will be forced to play their second road game in a mere 3 days.
Youngstown State is just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 on the road and are losing be close to 10 ppg on average away from home this season. Take Illinois-Chicago!
|12-29-19||Rockets v. Pelicans +5||112-127||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pelicans +5 -110
The Pelicans are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Rockets. Houston is not going to be at full strength for this one. Russell Westbrook is sitting out (rest) in the second game of a back-to-back and they may also be without big man Clint Capela (questionable).
Either way I like New Orleans to keep this real close and likely win outright. Pelicans have really got things going of late. NO comes in having won 3 in a row and are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which includes 3 outright wins as a dog.
Rockets are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a favorite and 4-12 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Pelicans are also 35-17 ATS last 52 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take New Orleans!
|12-29-19||Thunder v. Raptors -2.5||98-97||Loss||-109||10 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Raptors -2½ -109
I really like the value here with the Raptors at basically a pick'em at home against the Thunder. I just feel like the books have over adjusted this line because Toronto is playing on no rest after a game in Boston last night. Raptors won that one without much trouble and had two days off before that game, so I don't think the no rest is a big deal.
Plus the Raptors are 13-4 at home and while OKC has been playing better of late, they are still a miserable 5-9 on the road. If anything the Thunder are going to be the tired team, as they are playing on the road in what will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 13-5 ATS last 18 when playing on no rest and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Take Toronto!
|12-29-19||Arkansas v. Indiana -5||71-64||Loss||-110||7 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Indiana -5 -110
I really like the value here with Indiana as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. While both teams come in with just 1 loss on the season, I've been way more impressed with Indiana's resume. Arkansas has only played one team inside the KenPom top 100 and that 93rd ranked Western Kentucky.
Razorbacks were fortunate to get a win last time out as they trailed by 5 against Valpo last before squeaking out a 72-68 victory. Indiana's only loss is at Wisconsin. They are 9-0 at home and one of those was a 16-point win over a good FSU team.
Hoosiers have done an excellent job scoring in the paint and are one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line (averaging 20 made free throws per game). I just don't think the Razorbacks are built to slow them down and wouldn't be shocked if this thing turned into a blowout. Take Indiana!
|12-29-19||Rhode Island v. Middle Tennessee +6.5||89-62||Loss||-110||5 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Middle Tennessee +6½ -110
Easy play here with the Blue Raiders catching what I feel is a big number at home against Rhode Island. This is a big flat spot for Rhode Island coming out of their Christmas break on the road after a lengthy layoff against a hungry Middle Tennessee team. One in which they might have a hard time getting up with the Blue Raiders just 4-9 overall and a mere 1-8 in their last 9.
Last time out Middle Tennessee nearly won outright as a 4-point dog against St Bonaventure, falling to the Bonnies by a final score of 66-65. That's worth noting, as the Blue Raiders are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after playing their previous game as a home dog. Rhode Island is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Take Middle Tennessee!
|12-29-19||Raiders +3.5 v. Broncos||15-16||Win||100||104 h 43 m||Show|
3* NFL - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Raiders +3½ -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Raiders. Oakland is the only team in this one with something to play for and I would have them favored in this one. Denver is getting a lot of love for winning 3 of their last 4, but I just haven't been all that impressed with them. They were down 10-0 at home to the Lions last week and needed two 4th quarter scores to cover as a touchdown favorite.
Not the first time the Broncos have struggled with a bad team. They are just 13-28 ATS last 41 vs a team with a losing record and a mere 9-24 ATS last 33 times they have faced a marginal losing team like the Raiders with a win percentage of 40% to 49%.
On top of that Denver is awful in the role of home favorite, as they are just 2-7 ATS last 9 times they have been asked to lay points at home. They are also a miserable 4-11 ATS last 15 division games and have failed to cover each of their last 4 meetings with the Raiders. Take Oakland!
|12-28-19||Northern Arizona +7.5 v. Montana||Top||72-79||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northern Arizona +7½ -110
I love the value here with Northern Arizona as a near double-digit dog at Montana. The Lumberjacks come into this game at 6-3 and have covered 4 straight, while the Grizzlies are a mere 4-7 and 3-6 in their last 9.
Montana is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Grizzlies come in scoring just 64.8 ppg and are shooting just 425 from the field and 29% from long distance.
Northern Arizona averages 75.6 ppg and one thing I love about the Lumberjacks is how they get to the free throw line. They are one of the best in the country at doing so and Montana is one of the worst at sending opponents to the charity line. Grizzlies opponents are averaging 15 made free throws a game against them.
Lumberjacks are 5-1 ATS last 6 times they have been listed as a road dog. Also underdogs with a winning record who have beaten the spread by 30 or more points in their last 3 games and playing a team with a losing record are 23-7 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northern Arizona!
|12-28-19||Hawks +10 v. Bulls||81-116||Loss||-110||10 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Hawks +10 -110
I like the value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Bulls. I just think we are seeing Chicago get a little too much love due to the fact the Hawks won't have the services of their best player in Trea Young.
However, the Bulls could be missing two of their top players, as both Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr are listed as questionable. Chicago is also a team that simply can't be trusted to lay this kind of number against any team.
Especially at home. Bulls are just 14-30 ATS last 44 home games. They are also a mere 5-13 ATS last 18 times they have played at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Hawks are 6-2 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 30-16 ATS last 46 as an underdog of 10 or more. Take Atlanta!
|12-28-19||NC-Wilmington v. Delaware -11.5||68-82||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Delaware -11½ -110
Easy play here on the Blue Hens laying double-digits at home against the Seahawks. These two teams have played almost the same strength of schedule, yet Delaware is sitting at 10-3 and Wilmington is a mere 5-8.
Even more important here is the home/away splits. The Blue Hens are a perfect 6-0 at home where they are scoring 78.8 ppg. The Seahawks are 1-5 away from home and scoring a miserable 57.8 ppg on the road this season. Delaware has one of the best scorers in the country in Nate Darling, who is currently 16th in the nation at 21.4 ppg.
Wilmington is a mere 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and 1-7-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog. Take Delaware!
|12-28-19||Northern Colorado v. Portland State +3||65-69||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland State +3 -115
Easy play here on the Vikings as a home dog against Northern Colorado. Portland State is 3-1 on their home floor and have won 3 of their last 4 overall, including a 76-66 win last time out at Loyola-Marymount as a 3.5-point dog. Covering has not been a problem for the Vikings, who are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
The Bears come in having won 4 straight, but that's actually a positive here, as Northern Colorado is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when they come in having won 4 or more games in a row.
Look for the Vikings to torment the Bears on the offensive glass. Northern Colorado is vulnerable in that department and Portland State ranks 6th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Vikings are also 9-2 ATS last 11 games at home and 7-0-1 ATS last 8 games played on Saturday. Take Portland State!
|12-28-19||Oklahoma +14 v. LSU||Top||28-63||Loss||-110||418 h 57 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/LSU Playoffs PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma +14 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Sooners at this price. The hype around this LSU team has gotten out of control and the books have drastically inflated this line knowing the public is going to pound the Tigers no matter the number.
I'm not going to say Oklahoma is going to win this game, but I'm extremely confident they keep it within two touchdowns. Sooners have more than shown they can compete on this stage the last two years. Last season they fell 45-34 to Alabama as a similarly priced 13 point dog. The year before they should have beat Georgia, but blew a big lead and wound up losing in 2OT.
Oklahoma's offense might not be as potent as it was the last two years behind a couple of Heisman winners, but the defense is vastly improved. Also, as good as Joe Burrow and the LSU offense is, the defense can be had. They allowed 38 to Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Ole Miss. I fully expect them to struggle with Lincoln Riley's offense and a turnover here or there by the Sooners defense and this could get real interesting. Take Oklahoma!
|12-27-19||76ers -2.5 v. Magic||Top||97-98||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on 76ers -2½ -110
I think the books have made a huge mistake here with the 76ers basically at a pick'em on the road against the Magic. I get Philadelphia has had their struggles on the road and are coming off a massive win over the Bucks on Christmas Day, but I just don't see them having much trouble with Orlando.
It would be one thing if the Magic were playing well, but they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games and only covered twice in their last 7 games. Not to mention Orlando is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games in the month of December and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog.
Another key thing here is revenge. Magic embarrassed the 76ers 112-97 at home back in November. That actually sets up a very profitable system on Philadelphia. Favorites revenging a road loss of 10 or more and off a home win by 10 or more are 62-28 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Philadelphia!
|12-26-19||Wolves v. Kings -4||105-104||Loss||-110||12 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Kings -4 -110
Sacramento is definitely worth a look here laying a short number at home against the slumping Timberwolves. Minnesota comes into this game having lost 11 straight and may once again be without big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who has missed the last 4 and is listed as questionable.
Either way the Timberwolves can't be trusted as a small road dog and this Kings team is one that I think is one to watch out for. While Sacramento has lost all 4 games since De'Aaron Fox returned from injury, he's shown flashes of being 100% back. He had a career-high 31 points in their most recent loss to the Rockets.
Minnesota is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as an underdog, 1-5-1 ATS last 7 on the road and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Sacramento!
|12-26-19||Knicks v. Nets -7||94-82||Loss||-109||15 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nets -7 -109
I got no problem laying the points with Brooklyn at home against the Knicks. The Nets continue to play without Kyrie Irving, but have done just fine without him. If anything, it's had Brooklyn repeatedly showing great value in his absence.
Nets have won 12 of 18 with Irving sidelined and are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games, including a sizzling 8-3 ATS run over their last 11. The Knicks showed some life after making a coaching change, but reverted right back to their losing ways with 3 straight losses and 3 non-covers in their last 3 games.
New York simply doesn't have the talent to win many games, especially with their opponent motivated, which Brooklyn should be having had 4 days off. Defense is also a big problem for the Knicks, as they are giving up 112.7 ppg on the season and 120.8 ppg in their last 5. Knicks two most recent losses were at home and they are just 2-12 ATS last 14 after 2 straight home defeats. Take Brooklyn!
|12-26-19||Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7||Top||0-14||Win||100||370 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Miami/La Tech INDEPENDENCE BOWL Top Play on Louisiana Tech +7 -110
Easy play here on the Bulldogs catching a touchdown against Miami in the Independence Bowl. I just don't feel Miami is the least bit interested in playing in this game, especially with how they closed out the season with back-to-back losses to FIU and Duke. Given the talent that the Hurricanes have, there's zero excuse for them losing either one of those games other than they just don't care about finishing the season strong.
I just don't think Miami flipped a switch once the regular-season was over and started putting everything they had into beating LA Tech. There's no incentive for the Hurricanes to win this game. The same can't be said for the Bulldogs. Any time a small conference gets a shot at a Power 5, especially a storied program like Miami, they really get up for the game.
That alone is enough reason to take the points with Louisiana Tech, but there's even more reason to like the Bulldogs. The game will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana, which is roughly an hour drive from their campus in Ruston. It's going to feel like a home game for the Bulldogs.
You also have to take into account just how good La Tech head coach Skip Holtz has been at getting his team prepared and motivated for bowl play. Since he took over with the program, they have gone 5-0 in bowl games and he's 7-3 in his career as a head coach. I would not be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-25-19||Georgia Tech v. Hawaii +3||70-53||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Hawaii +3 -110
The Rainbow Warriors are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Yellow Jackets in their Christmas Day matchup in the Diamond Head Classic. Hawaii has such a huge advantage here with this game being played at home, especially with both teams playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Rainbow Warriors have gone 8-1 SU at home this season, while the Yellow Jackets are just 5-6 overall and 2-3 away from home. In Hawaii's last game they lost to No. 21 Washington by just 11-points and that was with their leading scorer, Eddie Stansberry, scoring just 5 points on a dreadful 1-17 shooting (all 3-pointers).
Georgia Tech is a mere 4-9 ATS last 13 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Rainbow Warriors are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS last 8 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Hawaii!
|12-25-19||Bucks v. 76ers +3.5||Top||109-121||Win||100||15 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Christmas Day GAME OF THE YEAR on 76ers +3½ -105
I absolutely love the value here with Philadelphia as a home dog against the Bucks. As difficult as it may be to bet against Milwaukee right now, I just think the price is too good with the 76ers as a home dog.
I really think Philadelphia is going to win this game. The 76ers definitely have the talent to go toe to toe with the Bucks, but more importantly they have the size to give Milwaukee trouble. Not to mention the 76ers have one of the league's best home court advantages. Philadelphia is 15-2 SU at home, where they are outscoring teams by 9.7 ppg.
76ers are 26-9 ATS last 35 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a home dog. Bucks on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Philadelphia!
|12-25-19||Celtics v. Raptors +3.5||118-102||Loss||-105||12 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA - Celtics/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +3½ -105
I'll gladly take my chances here with Toronto as a home dog against the Celtics in the first of five NBA games on Christmas Day. The Raptors are going to be without one of their best players in Pascal Siakam, which on paper looks like a big blow given that Siakam leads the team in scoring at 25.1 ppg.
However, he's missed the last 3 and Toronto has not missed a beat. Raptors secured wins over both the Wizards and Mavs at home before losing in overtime at Indiana against a red-hot Pacers team. Boston comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-2 over their last 9, but are just the same team on the road as they are at home.
Celtics are just 8-6 on the road compared to 12-1 at home. Toronto on the other hand is a dominant 13-3 at home this season. Raptors don't just win at home, they are 15-6-1 ATS last 21 at home and are 5-1-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home dog. Take Toronto!
|12-23-19||Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers||102-94||Win||100||15 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pelicans +6½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with New Orleans. It's been a really rough go of things for New Orleans to start out the season, but they have shown some signs of turning the corner. They snapped their 13-game skid with a win at Minnesota last week and each of their last two losses have come by 7 or fewer points.
Portland has won 4 straight, but it's nothing to get all that excited about. Their 4 wins have come against the Suns, Warriors, Magic and Timberwolves. Their win over Phoenix came with the Suns missing Booker and was before Ayton returned. Golden State is garbage, Orlando was playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and Minnesota was without Towns. Take New Orleans!
|12-23-19||Jazz +5 v. Heat||104-107||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Jazz +5 -110
I like the value here with Utah as a decently priced road dog against the Heat. The Jazz come in having won 5 in a row and are finally figuring out how to close out games. Utah will be without starting point guard Mike Conley, but they posted one of their better offensive performances without him in their last game and have scored 109 or more in all 5 wins.
Utah is also well rested. This will be just their 4th game since Dec. 13th. It's been a very profitable spot to back the Jazz, as they are 29-13 (69%) when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day stretch. Take Utah!
|12-23-19||Hawks +1.5 v. Cavs||118-121||Loss||-105||18 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +1½ -105
I really like the value here with Atlanta getting points on the road against the Cavs. Cleveland just can't be trusted laying points. Just two games ago they failed to cover as a mere 2.5-point favorite against the Hornets.
Any time the Cavs get matched up against another bad team they tend to underperform. Cleveland is a mere 21-48 ATS last 69 at home against a team with a losing road record. They are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Also, Hawks should be getting a big boost here with the return of John Collins from his 25-game suspension. In the 5 games Hollins played he averaged 17.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg and 2.0 blocks. Take Atlanta!
|12-23-19||Long Beach State v. Seattle University -5||57-79||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle University -5 -109
The Redhawks are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the 49ers. Big bounce back spot for Seattle after they were embarrassed on their home floor by Florida A&M as a 13.5-point favorite. I still like what I've seen overall from the 49ers and this Long Beach State team is one they can handle with ease.
49ers have played 8 of their first 13 games on the road and are 1-7 and getting outscored by 15.8 ppg. It's almost the exact opposite for Seattle, who even after that loss to Florida A&M are still outscoring teams at home 81.8 to 67.5 ppg. You have one team that is scoring 80+ games at home and one giving up 80+ ppg on the road. I just don't think the number here has been set high enough. Take Seattle!
|12-23-19||Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida||Top||25-48||Loss||-110||47 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - UCF/Marshall GASPARILLA BOWL Top Play on Marshall +17½ -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Thundering Herd in Monday's matchup with UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. Marshall has thrived in bowl games under head coach Doc Holiday. They have yet to lose since Holiday took over with a perfect 6-0 mark and come in having covered 5 straight bowl games.
UCF had another fantastic season and are without a doubt the more talented team, but bowl games is all about motivation and I just wonder how much the Knights really want to be here. UCF was playing in the Fiesta Bowl last year and the Peach Bowl the year before that. They got nothing to prove here against a team they are favored to beat by more than two touchdowns.
Marshall has the 43rd ranked defense (362.1 ypg) and 42nd in points allowed (23.1 ppg). With the extra time to prepare, I think they can slow down this UCF offense. At the same time, the Knights are vulnerable defensively against the run and the Herd averaged a healthy 195.7 rushing ypg (36th). This is just too many points. Take Marshall!
|12-22-19||Nuggets +7 v. Lakers||128-104||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
4* NBA - LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER on Nuggets +7 -105
Big time value here with Denver here as a near double-digit dog against the Lakers. I just think LA is being way overpriced in this spot, as the perception is that with the Lakers coming off back-to-back losses there's no way they can lose 3 straight. They might not, but winning by 8 or more against a really good Denver team is asking a lot.
Note that the Nuggets are coming in playing some of their best ball, as they have won 5 straight. Lakers are also a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record and are 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver!
|12-22-19||Pacers +8 v. Bucks||89-117||Loss||-115||10 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA - Central Div PLAY OF THE WEEK on Pacers +8 -115
I like the value here with Indiana catching a big number on the road against the Bucks. As difficult as it is to bet against Milwaukee with how well they have been playing, I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Pacers in this spot.
This is definitely a good spot to fade the Bucks, as they will be playing on no rest after a game yesterday in New York. It's also their 3rd game in 4 days. Indiana on the other hand is well rested playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Pacers are also coming in having won and covered 5 straight games.
Lastly, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off two straight covers as a favorite are just 8-25 (24%) ATS if facing an opponent off a home win where they scored 110 or more points. Take Indiana!
|12-22-19||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. Mercer||65-50||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Florida Atlantic +3½ -107
The Owls are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Bears. I just think we are seeing Mercer get a little too much love off their close call and cover at home against Furman last time out. Bears are still just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
FAU comes in having won 3 straight and are 5-1 over their last 6. Owls have a really good player in Jailyn Ingram who seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. FAU has the better offensive and better defensive numbers and I'm confident they win this game outright.
Mercer is a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 home games off a straight up loss, 3-7 ATS last 10 home games overall and 1-8 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take FAU!
|12-22-19||Cowboys v. Eagles +3||Top||9-17||Win||100||126 h 29 m||Show|
5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115
I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing.
Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways.
A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand.
Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense.
Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia!
|12-22-19||Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks||27-13||Win||100||43 h 34 m||Show|
4* NFL - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Cardinals +9½ -105
The Cardinals are definitely worth a look here as a near double-digit dog at Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the best records in the NFL at 11-3, but I just think it has them way overvalued here against a feisty Arizona team that is coming off a 38-24 win against the Browns.
The biggest thing for me with Seattle and fading them at this price is the simple fact that out of their 11 wins only 1 has come by more than 8 points. On top of that, Seahawks could have a tough time not looking ahead to next week's massive game against the 49ers. Win or lose, that game against San Francisco will be for the NFC West crown and possibly a first round bye in the playoffs.
Arizona has been a smart play in games that are expected to be high scoring. Cardinals are a dominant 14-3 ATS last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Arizona has also gone 43-26 ATS last 69 when revenging a same season loss and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 as a road dog. Seahawks just 2-5 ATS last 7 as a home favorite. Take Arizona!
|12-22-19||New Mexico State +5.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||58-52||Win||100||14 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico State +5½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State comes in at 8-2, but a big reason for that is the schedule. The Bulldogs best win is a neutral site victory against Kansas State. They just struggled to put away Radford in their last game and recently lost at home to Louisiana Tech.
New Mexico State has gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, but are off a win and cover against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Aggies debuted UTEP transfer Evan Gilyard in that game and A.J. Harris, who has been out all year could be back for this one.
Also, I like the matchup here. Aggies are really good at forcing their opponents into making mistakes. They are averaging 15 forced turnovers a game and Mississippi State ranks 327th in turnover rate. New Mexico State is also a great offensive rebounding team (32nd nationally) and Bulldogs rank a mere 232nd in defensive rebound rate.
Mississippi State is also just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they come into a game having won 2 of their last 3. Take New Mexico State!
|12-22-19||Jaguars v. Falcons -7||12-24||Win||100||123 h 0 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Falcons -7 -110
I got no problem laying a touchdown here with Atlanta at home against the Jaguars. The Falcons clearly are motivated to finish this season strong. They have won 4 of their last 6 overall and are fresh off that shocking upset on the road against the 49ers.
Jacksonville comes in off a win at Oakland, but with the way the Raiders have been playing it's hard to get excited about that. Prior to that the Jaguars had lost 5 straight all by 17 or more points. I'm confident Jacksonville will go right back to their losing ways in this one.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should be able to do as they please here. Atlanta comes in with the 4th ranked passing offense and Jacksonville's pass defense has regressed quite a bit down the stretch. Jags also are awful against the run, as they come in 29th, giving up 140.1 ypg.
As for Jacksonville's offense, they have now gone 6 straight games scoring 20 or fewer points. In their last 3 games they have failed to rush for more than 90 yards and haven't thrown for more than 190. You just can't expect to be competitive on the road when you can't do anything offensively. Take Atlanta!
|12-22-19||Panthers v. Colts -6.5||6-38||Win||100||116 h 47 m||Show|
3* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts -6½ -110
The Colts are definitely worth a look here laying less than a touchdown at home against the Panthers. Indianapolis' playoff hopes came crashing to an end with an ugly 34-7 loss at new Orleans on Monday Night Football.
You might think now is not the time to jump on the Colts given they no longer have a shot at the playoffs and are riding a 4-game skid, but I'm confident Indy is going to show up in their final home game. Also, the Panthers are a team that is in a complete free fall. Carolina has lost 6 straight and with 5 of the 6 losses by 8 or more.
Things have got so bad with Panthers that they let Rivera go and now are turning to rookie Will Grier at quarterback. I'm not expecting much out of Grier in his first start, especially with it coming on the road.
On top of that, he's going to be asked to do too much with how bad the defense has been playing. Carolina has allowed 29 or more points in each of their last 5 games. They have allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of their last 3, which I think speaks volumes to just how bad things have got. Panthers are aos 0-7 ATS last 2 seasons in the second half vs a team with a losing record. Take Indianapolis!
|12-21-19||CS Bakersfield -2.5 v. Cal Poly||72-50||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - CS Bakersfield/Cal Poly ATS Winner on CS Bakersfield -2½ -109
I like the value here with CS-Bakersfield as a small road favorite against Cal Poly. Neither team is all that great, but I do give the edge here to the Roadrunners. A big reason for that is they should dominate the glass. Bakersfield ranks 15th in offensive rebound rate and 45th on defense. Cal Poly is one of the worst teams in the country on the board.
The Mustangs also can't score and don't exactly defend all that great either Cal Poly is scoring just 63.6 ppg and giving up 72.3 ppg. Mustangs are 0-8 ATS last 8 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and just 2-9 ATS last 2 seasons at home. Take CS-Bakersfield!
|12-21-19||UAB +17 v. Appalachian State||17-31||Win||100||255 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - UAB/App St NEW ORLEANS BOWL on UAB +17 -110
I just feel this is too good a price to pass up with UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. I know the Blazers played a really easy schedule in route to making the C-USA title game and were annihilated by FAU in that C-USA Championship. I just feel that poor perception of UAB is playing into this line.
As for Appalachian State they are really good team, but it's not always about who is more talented in bowl games. It's typically about who wants it more and I really question the motivation here for the Mountaineers. Appalachian State was so close to being the top ranked Group of 5 team, which would have had them in the Cotton Bowl.
I just don't think playing UAB in the New Orleans Bowl will get the juices flowing. Keep in mind it's the same exact bowl they played in last year, which I think also takes away from the excitement.
On top of that, the Mountaineers had to deal with their head coach leaving, for a second straight year. Last year Scott Satterfield bolted before their bowl to take over at Louisville. This year it was Eliah Drinkwitz jumping ship to Missouri. I still think App State wins, just not by the number. Take UAB!
|12-21-19||Clippers v. Spurs +6||134-109||Loss||-109||12 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA - Prime Time ATS NO-BRAINER on Spurs +6 -109
I like the value here with the Spurs getting a decent number at home against the Clippers. With LA coming off that meltdown at home to the Rockets on Thursday, I think a lot of people are just expecting the Clippers to bounce back with a big effort here. While they are likely to play hard, I don't think they are just going to run over the Spurs.
San Antonio has been playing much better of late with 4 wins in their last 6 and could have easily won both games they lost, especially a 2-point setback at Houston where they had a 25-point lead. Spurs won't be intimidated by LA, as they already knocked off the Clippers at home 107-97 earlier this season.
Spurs are 16-5 ATS last 21 home games in the month of December and 9-2 ATS last 11 times they have been a home dog. Take San Antonio!
|12-21-19||Arkansas-Little Rock v. UL - Lafayette +2.5||69-66||Loss||-110||9 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Lafayette/Little Rock ATS Winner on UL - Lafayette +2½ -110
I'll take the Ragin' Cajuns and the points as they get ready to host Little Rock Saturday night. I just don't think Lafayette should be getting points at home. Little-Rock has won their last t2, but failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite in a mere 1-point win at ULM on Thursday and now must play another road game on just 1-day of rest.
Ragin' Cajuns have lost their last 3, but all 3 of those were true road games. Lafayette is a perfect 4-0 at home where they are absolutely lighting up the scoreboard with 87.7 ppg on 49% shooting. Little Rock only scored 65.0 ppg away from home and I just don't see them keeping pace in this one.
Little Rock is 5-14 ATS last 19 conference games and Ragin Cajuns are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a loss by 10 or more. Take Lafayette!
|12-21-19||Eastern Illinois v. Grand Canyon -2.5||63-85||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Illinois/Grand Canyon ATS Winner on Grand Canyon -2½ -110
I like the value here with the Antelopes as a small home favorite against the Panthers. Good spot here to jump on Grand Canyon at home after losing their last 3. No real shocker that they did as they came against better teams in Liberty, Northern Iowa and New Mexico.
Key here is the bad spot for Eastern Illinois, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a week span. They are also coming off a max effort against rival Western Illinois, making them prime for a letdown. Eastern Illinois is also just 14-29 ATS last 43 after covering 3 straight. Take Grand Canyon!
|12-21-19||Washington v. Boise State +3.5||Top||38-7||Loss||-109||253 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Wash/Boise St LAS VEGAS BOWL Top Play on Boise State +3½ -109
The Broncos are definitely worth a look here catching more than a field goal against the Huskies. There's a lot of talk about this being the last game for Chris Petersen with Washington and how they are going to play their hearts out for him because of that. I just don't that I buy that. If I was a Huskies player I would be a little ticked off that Petersen is walking away.
The other big thing is this was not a great Washington team this year. One that lost at home to Cal and Colorado on the road. This is also a far cry from the kind of bowl that the Huskies are accustomed to. The last 3 years they have played in the Peach, Fiesta and Rose bowls.
You also got some of their best players sitting out, which I think speaks volumes to how little this game really means to them. Left tackle Trey Adams and tight end Hunter Bryant are both skipping to prepare for the draft.
Lastly, this is a Huskies offense that struggled to score and will be facing a really good Boise State defense. The Broncos ranked 35th in total defense (347.5 ypg) and 24th in scoring (20.6 ppg). They are also really good at stopping the run, ranking 19th in the country allowing 113.1 ypg. Broncos are also 10-3 SU in their last 13 vs a team from the Pac-12. Simply put, the wrong team is favored. Take Boise State!
|12-21-19||St Bonaventure -3.5 v. Middle Tennessee||66-65||Loss||-105||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -3½ -105
Easy play here on the Bonnies as a small road favorite against the Blue Raiders. St Bonaventure has been on an absolute tear of late. Bonnies come in having won 6 straight and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 lined games.
It's the exact opposite for Middle Tennessee, who has lost 7 of their last 8 and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in this stretch. Every loss in this poor run has come by double-digits. Blue Raiders are scoring 75.2 ppg, which looks good, but is actually less than what their opponents have given up on average. I just think they will have a real tough time scoring here against a St Bonaventure defense that is holding opponents to 61.8 ppg, 40% from the field and 30% from deep. Take St Bonaventure!
|12-21-19||North Carolina v. UCLA +4.5||74-64||Loss||-109||5 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCLA +4½ -109
I really like the value here with UCLA getting points against the Tar Heels in their neutral site showdown in Las Vegas. This is just as bad a North Carolina team as I can remember and things have really took a turn for the worse with star freshman Cole Anthony sidelined. Tar Heels have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
I get the Bruins haven't been all that impressive in their own right, but I do feel like they are the better team. I also think they got an edge here having not played in a week, while UNC is a long way from home and playing on just 2 days rest after laying it all on the line at Gonzaga Wednesday.
Tar Heels just keep getting overvalued by the books because of how big a name they are. UNC is a mere 1-7 ATS in games where they are listed as the favorite and 0-4 ATS off a cover. Take UCLA!
|12-21-19||Central Michigan +4 v. San Diego State||11-48||Loss||-109||248 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - C Mich/SD St NEW MEXICO BOWL on Central Michigan +4 -109
I'll gladly take the points here with Central Michigan against San Diego State in the New Mexico Bowl. The Chippewas had quite the turnaround in the first year under head coach Jim McElwain, as they finished 8-5 after going just 1-11 last year. They also won the MAC West after being picked by many to finish last in the division.
They did come up short in the MAC title game against Miami (OH), but I think that will have them that much more motivated to finish their season strong. As for the Aztecs, you just can't trust Rocky Long's team in postseason play. Long is just 4-9 as a head coach in bowl games. Last year they lost 27-0 to Ohio out of the MAC
Long has basically said his primary goal is to not win bowl games. He's more interested in developing his underclassmen and getting them primed for making a bigger impact the next season.
It's also really hard to trust a team laying points that has a hard as time as San Diego State scoring the football. The Aztecs finished 115 in total offense (330.1 ypg) and 119th in scoring (19.0 ppg). The defense is good, but some of the great numbers are a result of a schedule that simply didn't have them facing many great offenses. I like the Chips and their balanced attack to have some success and really like them to win this outright. Take Central Michigan!
|12-21-19||Fairfield +7 v. Oakland||61-59||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Fairfield +7 -110
The Stags are definitely worth a look at this price in Saturday's matchup at Oakland. Fairfield comes into this game with a less than impressive 2-7 SU record and I think it has them showing value.
The Stags are really unlucky to be sitting here with just 2 wins. Only one of their 7 losses have come by more than 11 points and 3 have been by 4 or fewer. They not only capable of covering here against Oakland, but winning this game outright. The Golden Grizzlies have lost 5 of 6 and have to be running on fumes after playing 6 straight away from home.
Also both of these teams have played at Maryland and while both lost, the Stags lost by just 19, while the Golden Grizzlies fell by 30. Take Fairfield!
|12-21-19||Illinois v. Missouri +4.5||56-63||Win||100||3 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Illinois/Missouri ATS Winner on Missouri +4½ -110
I like Missouri at this price as they get ready to take on Illinois at the Scottrade Center in St Louis. The Tigers really need this game to boost their non-conference resume, as they have came up short in their other big games against Xavier, Butler and Oklahoma.
Missouri has won and covered each of their last two, so they come in with some momentum. Illinois has gotten off to a strong 8-3 start with a big home win over Michigan, but their only win away from home against Grand Canyon and even that was a less than impressive showing.
Favorite has covered just once in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and Neutral court favorites who are averaging 78+ ppg and facing a team that scores 63-67 ppg are just 10-33 ATS (23%) if off a game where they held an opponent to 55 or less. Take Missouri!
|12-21-19||Kansas v. Villanova +2||Top||55-56||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a home dog against Kansas. The Jayhawks might be the No. 1 team in the country, but it's been a bit of a revolving door at the top of the college basketball landscape. I just think it has Kansas getting a little to much love here at No. 18 Villanova.
The Wildcats only two losses have come against the likes of Ohio State and Baylor and both of those were on the road. Villanova is 4-0 at home, where they are scoring 84.5 ppg and giving up just 62.2 ppg. This is also the first real test for KU in a true road game and I think it can be a bit of a challenge to go this deep in the season having not played in a real hostile environment.
Jayhawks are a mere 2-10 ATS last 2 seasons in road games and the Wildcats are 33-17 ATS last 3 seasons when playing a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Villanova!
|12-20-19||Mavs +8.5 v. 76ers||117-98||Win||100||14 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Mavs +8½ -109
I like the value here with the Mavs as a near double-digit dog against the 76ers. Luka Doncic did travel with the team to Philadelphia, but he's unlikely to play. However, Dallas has shown they are more than capable of competing against the top teams without him. In the two games he's missed they have won at Milwaukee and lost by just 6 to the Celtics.
76ers just lost at home to the Heat as a 9-point favorite and have been one of the more overvalued teams over the last month and a half. Going back to Nov. 10 Philadelphia is 6-11-3 ATS. In comparison, Dallas is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
Mavs are 12-3-2 ATS last 17 off a straight up loss and are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!
|12-20-19||Knicks +10.5 v. Heat||114-129||Loss||-115||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Knicks +10½ -115
New York is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Heat. Knicks have been a money maker since they fired head coach David Fizdale. They are 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS since he was let go. That includes 3 straight covers on the road against the Warriors, Kings and Nuggets.
Winning at Miami won't be easy, but I like their chances of keeping this within 10-points. Heat could definitely struggle to get up for this game, as they are off a huge road win against the 76ers, which concluded a 3-game road trip.
Heat also got off to that great start and as a result the books are starting to overprice them, especially as a favorite. Miami is just 1-4 ATS last 10 when laying points. Take New York!
|12-20-19||Pistons v. Celtics -7||Top||93-114||Win||100||20 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -7 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Boston at home against the Pistons. Celtics should have no problem winning here by double-digits against a struggling Detroit team that will not only be without Blake Griffin, but also Luke Kennard and Christian Wood.
Boston won't have Gordon Hayward but at this point they are accustomed to not having him. They also don't need him to put away this Pistons team. Celtics are also well rested playing just their 2nd game in the last 7 days and coming off a big momentum building win at Dallas where they rallied in the 2nd half for a 109-103 win.
Pistons have gone 3-14-1 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Celtics are 10-1 at home) and 3-8 ATS last 11 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Boston!
|12-20-19||Kent State v. Utah State -6.5||Top||51-41||Loss||-110||180 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Kent St FRISCO BOWL Top Play on Utah State -6½ -110
Easy play here for me on the Aggies. I don't get the line move at all as I thought the books had it priced right when they opened Utah State at -8.5. There's simply too much value here now with them under the key number of 7.
I just think Jordan Love announcing he was leaving early to go pro and then some key guys getting accused of smoking pot had people leaning Kent State in this game. Thing is, Love is playing and those allegations appear to be false, at least from what head coach Gary Anderson is saying.
Love is going to want to show out here to build up his draft stock. I also think the Utah State players will be motivated that much more after hearing the coach had their back. Love should have a field day in this one, as the Golden Flashes are awful defensively. They give up 471.7 ypg and allow 34.6 ppg away from home. They also are allowing opposing QB's to complete 69% of their attempts for 249 ypg and 8.4 yards/ pass attempt.
Also, Kent State went 6-6 and their only decent win was against Buffalo and they trailed 27-6 in the 4th quarter of a crazy 30-27 win. Golden Flashes are a great story as they had quite the turnaround, but they are outclassed in this one. Take Utah State!
|12-19-19||Portland State +5.5 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||76-66||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Small Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Portland State +5½ -111
Easy play here on the Vikings getting points against the Lions. I actually think Portland State is going to win this game outright, so this is really a no-brainer at this price. Loyola-Marymount has failed to cover their last two, including a mere 3-point win in their last home game against Prairie View A&M as a similarly priced 6-point favorite.
The Lions just aren't a team to be trusted to lay points. They don't play great defense and struggle to take care of the basketball. That could haunt them here against Portland State, which has had some success turning over the opposition. Vikings also are also a great offensive rebounding team and those second chances should pay off in this matchup.
Vikings are 15-6 ATS last 21 non-conference road games, while the Lions are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Portland State!
|12-19-19||Nets v. Spurs -2.5||Top||105-118||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Spurs -2½ -106
I absolutely love the value here with the Spurs at basically a pick'em at home against the Nets. This hasn't been anywhere close to the kind of start to the season that most expected for San Antonio and their latest 107-109 loss to Houston, where they blew a 25-point lead, speaks to the season they are having.
With that said, I do feel like there's some positives with building up a 25-point lead on the road against the Rockets. It could be a sign of them turning the corner. Had they won that would have been 4 out of their last 5.
With a full 2 days off before this game I think we get a big effort here from the Spurs. As for the Nets, they continue to play well without Kyrie, but a lot of that success has come against bad teams. This is also not an ideal scheduling spot playing on the road for the 3rd time in the last 6 days.
Spurs are 15-5 ATS last 20 games at home in the month of December and 21-9 ATS last 30 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio!
|12-19-19||Jazz -6 v. Hawks||111-106||Loss||-109||11 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jazz -6 -109
The Jazz are definitely worth a look here at Atlanta tonight. Utah is just 5-8 away from home and I think that poor road record has them a bit undervalued in this one. Jazz have won 3 straight and will be motivated here to get their 3-game road trip started off with a win.
What I love is they don't even need to play their best to cover this number against the Hawks. Atlanta has the second worst record in the league at 6-22 and are just 2-16 over their last 22 games. Last time out the Hawks fell by 23 on the road to an awful Knicks team, marking their 6th double-digit setback in their last 7 losses.
Jazz have faired well against teams like Atlanta away from home, as they are 20-9 ATS last 29 on the road against bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. They are also 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after 2 or more consecutive home wins. Take Utah!
|12-18-19||Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs||Top||109-103||Win||100||20 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -1½ -109
I absolutely love the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at Dallas. The Mavs shocked just about everyone in their last game, as they snapped the Bucks 18-game winning streak in Milwaukee without one of the best players in the league in Luka Doncic. Dallas won the game 120-116 as a 10-point dog.
Not to take anything away from that win, but you have to think some of that was Milwaukee not giving the Mavs the respect they deserved. They had to think they could just coast and beat Dallas without Doncic. On the flip side the Mavs were highly motivated to show they can win without their star.
Boston isn't going to make the same mistake here. In fact, the Celtics should be 100% locked in after losing their last two and being fully rested after having the last 5 days off. Boston is 8-2 ATS last 10 times they have played on 4 or more days of rest and are 11-2 ATS on the season vs a team with a winning record. Take Boston!
|12-18-19||VCU v. College of Charleston +6||Top||76-71||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on College of Charleston +6 -109
I love the value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Rams. VCU is the household name in this matchup and I think it has them laying a few to many in this one. Note the books have really been inflating the number on the Rams of late. VCU has failed to cover five straight and are just 2-8 ATS on the season. They are also 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road.
Charleston is off to a very respectable 5-5 start. A .500 record might not seem great, but they have played the likes of Oklahoma State, Marshall, UCF (twice), Wake Forest, Providence and Richmond. Most of those games they were very competitive.
Last year the Cougars went on the road and beat VCU 83-79 as a 5.5-point dog and what I like is they got the guards to handle this Rams pressure with 3 really good ball handlers in Galloway, Jasper and Riller.
Another thing here is the Rams have not shot the ball well in 2019 and are still missing one of their better outside shooters in Malik Crowfield. Not to mention the Cougars are holding opponents to 40% from the field at home. Take Charleston!
|12-18-19||DePaul v. Cleveland State +16||73-65||Win||101||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland State +16 +101
I really like the value here with the Vikings as a massive home dog against DePaul. Not many people saw the Blue Demons being this good this early on in 2019. DePaul is off to an impressive 10-1 start, which includes a 7-3 ATS mark. However, we are far enough in that the betting public has caught on and now the books are really starting to inflate their price.
I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Blue Demons, as this is not a team they need their best effort against to get a win. It's their first road game in almost 3 weeks and they got a big matchup with Northwestern at home on Saturday.
Also worth noting that a lot of DePaul's ATS success has come in the role of a dog. Blue Demons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take Cleveland State!
|12-17-19||San Francisco +6.5 v. Stanford||Top||56-64||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +6½ -109
Love the value here with the Dons as a decently priced dog against the Cardinal. Stanford has been one of the big surprises early, as they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. However, both the betting public and the books have figured out just how good the Cardinal are and we are seeing them a little overpriced here against a good San Francisco team.
Dons are 9-2 to start the year and one of those losses is by a mere 4-points to Arizona State. That's not their only good showing against a Pac-12 foe, as they beat Cal at home by 12 earlier this month. Dons are 17-6 ATS last 23 on the road after 2 straight covers as a favorite.
Also a great system in play to fade the Cardinal. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 off a road win by 20 or more are just 17-45 (27%) ATS since 1997 in games involving 2 teams that have won 80% or more of their games. Take San Francisco!
|12-17-19||Florida v. Providence +5.5||83-51||Loss||-115||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +5½ -115
I really like the value here with the Friars as a decently priced dog against the Gators in Tuesday's matchup in the Hall of Fame Invitational at the Barclays Center. Florida has been one of the most overrated teams in the country by the books. While the Gators are a respectable 6-3 SU, they are just 2-7 ATS. Last time out they lost by 14 at Butler as a mere 3.5-point dog.
Providence hasn't been much better of late, but the Friars continue to play hard and they really get after you defensively. Providence is only allowing opponents to shoot 42% from the field against them and are 11th in the country in defensive turnover rate.
Florida's lackluster offense is a big reason for their disappointing start and they have struggled against good defensive teams. Gators are just 8-17 ATS last 25 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 5-13 ATS last 18 vs teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Providence!
|12-16-19||Bulls v. Thunder -6||106-109||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -6 -110
Really like the value here with Oklahoma City at home tonight against the Bulls. Chicago comes in off an upset win at home over the Clippers, which looks great on paper until you realize LA didn't play Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams or Pat Beverly. Not to mention it was the Clippers 3rd game in 4 days and wrapped up a 6-game road trip.
Prior to taking advantage of that game against a depleted and tired Clippers team, the Bulls managed just 73 points in a home loss to the Hornets. Chicago's offense has been one of the worst in the league early on, as they come in 27th in effective field goal percentage.
Hard to win games on the road or even keep them close for that matter when you struggle to put the ball in the hoop. Thunder might be just 11-14, but do own a 7-5 record at home and are 5-3 over their last 8 with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5. Take Oklahoma City!
|12-16-19||Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2.5||Top||85-47||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Western Illinois +2½ -110
I love the value here with Western Illinois as a small home dog against rival Eastern Illinois. Books have been consistently undervaluing the Leathernecks here of late, as they come in having covered 4 straight.
Eastern Illinois may have the better record, but they have played the much easier schedule. The Panthers also lack size, as they got a 6'5 guy playing center. The offense also doesn't produce at near the same level on the road. Eastern Illinois is averaging 78.3 ppg on the season, but just 68.3 ppg away from home.
That lack of offense on the road figures to really hurt them here, as Western Illinois comes in averaging 80.9 ppg on the season and 90.0 ppg at home, where they are shooting a healthy 48% from the field and 44% from long distance.
Leathernecks are a strong 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as a home dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Panthers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Take Western Illinois!
|12-15-19||Samford +7.5 v. Hawaii||Top||73-94||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Samford +7½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog at Hawaii on Sunday. I know the competition hasn't been the best, but it's worth noting that Samford has scored 97 and 113 points in their last two games. In their last game they beat Houston Baptist by 23 as a mere 4.5-point favorite and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
Hawaii is 6-3, but those 6 wins are against the likes of Pacific, Portland State, Florida A&M, New Orleans, San Francisco and Hawaii Pacific. Even with that soft schedule their largest margin of victory all season is by 13-points.
Rainbow Warriors are not a team to back as a favorite, as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when laying points. They are also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Bulldogs are also a healthy 31-12-1 ATS last 44 non-conference games. Take Samford!
|12-15-19||Vikings v. Chargers +3||Top||39-10||Loss||-120||106 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120
I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it.
Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer.
Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home.
Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles!
|12-15-19||Texans +3 v. Titans||24-21||Win||100||103 h 35 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Texans +3 -115
Most are going to look to lay the short number here with the Titans, as Tennessee comes in having won and covered in each of their last 4 games, while Houston just got embarrassed at home by the Broncos as a 8-point favorite.
I'm not about to say the Titans aren't a good team, but I definitely don't trust them in this spot. I also think the Texans simply laid an egg last week against Denver after that massive home win over the Patriots. I fully expect Deshaun Watson and that Houston team to bounce back in a big way with 1st place in the AFC South on the line.
Watson and the Texans have really thrived in the role of underdog. In games that Watson starts in which Houston is getting points, the Texans have gone 11-4 ATS, including an 8-3 ATS mark in this spot on the road. Houston is also 8-2-1 ATS last 11 off a game where they failed to cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home.
Titans are just 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 division games and just 4-11-1 ATS last 16 times they have been matched up against the Texans. Take Houston!
|12-14-19||Gonzaga +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||84-80||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs getting points at Arizona. While the Wildcats are greatly improved over last year and these two come into this game with identical 10-1 records, I feel Gonzaga is by far the better team.
Arizona comes in off a blowout 99-49 win and cover against Nebraska-Omaha, but prior to that had failed to cover 4 straight. Wildcats are also going to be down one of their better players in Stone Gettings.
Another key thing here is the matchup on the boards. Arizona's head coach Sean Miller flat out said his teams biggest weakness was their defensive rebounding. That's a big time problem against a Gonzaga team that is great at generating second chances by hitting the offensive glass. I just don't think the Wildcats will be able to go score-for-score with the juggernaut that is the Bulldogs offense. Take Gonzaga!
|12-14-19||UC-Davis +8 v. San Diego||54-58||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UC-Davis +8 -110
Easy play here for me on UC-Davis as a near double-digit dog against the Toreros. The Aggies are just 4-7, but the schedule has not been favorable. They also started out the season a dreadful 0-6 ATS. However, they have come to life in the last few weeks and come in having covered 4 straight and are off back-to-back outright wins as a dog.
San Diego has been on cruise control in their last two games, but are just 18-34 ATS last 52 at home after holding 2 straight opponents to 65 or less and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home after leading in their previous 2 games by 10+ points at the half. Take UC-Davis!
|12-14-19||Clippers v. Bulls +6||106-109||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS CASH COW on Bulls +6 -109
I think the Bulls are definitely worth a shot here as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers on Saturday. Chicago absolutely laid an egg at home last night against the Hornets, as they managed just 73 points on 30% shooting in a double-digit loss as a 7-point favorite.
That performance will have the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Bulls in this matchup against the Clippers, who come in having won 4 straight and are 13-2 in their last 15 overall. The books know this and have shaded the line here to help Chicago cover.
Note that we should get a max effort here from the Bulls off that clunker, especially against a top tier team like LA. As for the Clippers, they are the ones I would be concerned about not bringing their "A" game. LA is also playing on no rest after a hard fought win at Minnesota last night and will be concluding a lengthy 6-game road trip tonight. Take Chicago!
|12-14-19||Georgia Tech +15.5 v. Kentucky||53-67||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Georgia Tech +15½ -109
I like the value here with Georgia Tech catching a big number against the Wildcats. Most are going to just look to lay the big number with Kentucky after seeing that the Yellow Jackets were trounced at home by Syracuse 97-63 in their last game. I just think we are going to get a big effort here from Georgia Tech off that ugly showing against the Orange.
On top of that, I think we could see Kentucky come out a bit flat. Wildcats haven't played in a week and in just a few days will be heading to Las Vegas to take on Utah. Wildcats are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6, so the books have definitely been inflating the number on them.
Yellow Jackets are 13-3 ATS last 16 off an upset loss by 10 or more as a favorite and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road against strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Georgia Tech!
|12-14-19||Army v. Navy -10||Top||7-31||Win||100||80 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Army/Navy NO LIMIT Top Play on Navy -10 -110
I got no problem laying double-digits with the Midshipmen in Saturday's huge rivalry game with Army. Some might think Navy will be looking ahead to their bowl, while Army is going to treat this like it's their bowl game. Sure the Black Knights are going to come to play, but don't think for a second that the Midshipmen aren't 100% focused on this game.
A big reason for that is they come in having lost 3 straight in the series after they had rattled off 14 wins in a row over Army. A big reason for the Black Knights recent success is they for the first time in a long time had the better talent on the field. This year Army has underperformed big time and finished just 5-7, despite a schedule that had many calling for at least 8 wins.
Navy has played the much tougher schedule and are 9-2. Midshipmen are the better team on both side of the ball and I just think they come out with a chip on their shoulder Saturday and win here by at least 14.
Army is just 1-9 ATS last 10 as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points and have lost in this spot by an average score of 35 to 10. Take Navy!
|12-14-19||Alabama v. Penn State -10.5||71-73||Loss||-109||4 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS DESTROYER on Penn State -10½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number at home with Penn State as they get ready to host Alabama. The Nittany Lions come in off an impressive 76-69 win at home over No. 4 Maryland and should have no problem making easy work of the Crimson Tide.
With that win Penn State improved to 6-0 at home. Alabama is just 4-4 overall with their 4 wins against the likes of FAU, Furman, Southern Miss and SF Austin. Crimson Tide are just 1-3 away from home and a big reason for that is they are allowing 85.2 ppg on 48.4% shooting on the road. That's a problem, as Penn State is scoring 80.5 ppg at home.
Nittany Lions should also have a big edge here on the glass with their strong frontcourt and Alabama's guard heavy lineup. Not to mention the Crimson Tide's inability to take care of the ball. They rank 322nd in offensive turnover rate. This thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Take Penn State!
|12-14-19||Oregon +4 v. Michigan||71-70||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +4 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a small road dog against the Wolverines. Few coaches are better than Oregon's Dana Altman at getting his team ready for big games. Ducks have already compiled an impressive 7-1 ATS record this season when matched up against a team with a winning record.
Michigan had that great run in the Battle 4 Atlantics, knocking off Iowa St, UNC and Gonzaga in a 3-day span. They went from unranked to the Top 10 and I'm not so sure it was warranted. Michigan has lost 2 of 3 since returning from that tournament, including a 62-71 loss at Illinois last time out.
I know the Wolverines are a good home team, but Oregon is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in their last 9 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Oregon!
|12-13-19||Prairie View A&M +7 v. Loyola Marymount||76-79||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Prairie View A&M +7 -110
The Panthers are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against Loyola Marymount. Prairie View A&M is just 3-6 overall, but that was to be expected. Panthers haven't played at home since opening the season at home on Nov. 5 against Jarvis Xian. They have played each of their last 8 games away from home and all but two have been true road games.
While the wins haven't been there, they are an impressive 5-1 ATS and roll in having covered 3 straight. They only lost by 9 last time out at Arizona State and have also lost by just 4 at both UCF and Cal, as well a mere 14-point loss at Texas. If they can go on the road in those venues and keep it that close, they are capable of covering this and even winning outright.
Lions are just 1-8 ATS last 9 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Prairie View A&M!
|12-13-19||Bucks v. Grizzlies +10.5||Top||127-114||Loss||-109||10 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies +10½ -109
I love the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Bucks. Milwaukee has won 16 straight and are fresh off a 15-point win over the Pelicans without Antetokounmpo and he's questionable to play here. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bucks gave him another night off, especially against a sub-par team like Memphis.
The Grizzlies have won two straight since star rookie Ja Morant returned from a 4-game absence and this team is more than capable of keeping this close with him on the floor. I also think this is a tricky spot for Milwaukee. They just played 3 straight at home and will return home for 3 more after this contest. Real easy for them to just kind of take this game off and go through the motions.
Bucks are a mere 7-24 ATS in their last 31 off 3 or more consecutive home wins and just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Grizzlies are returning home after 4-straight on the road. Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Take Memphis!
|12-12-19||Northern Iowa -5.5 v. Grand Canyon||82-58||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Iowa -5½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Panthers. Dan Majerle's Antelope's team is better than their 4-7 record, but I still think they are outclassed in this one. UNI really came on strong at the end of last year and look like a team that's poised to make a serious run for a MVC title.
Panthers are 9-1 with the only loss coming by 5 to West Virginia. They just went on the road and beat Colorado 79-76 as a 9.5-point dog and that's a really impressive win with how good the Buffaloes are at home. UNI improved to 7-1 ATS on the season and a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home. Take Northern Iowa!
|12-12-19||Jets +15 v. Ravens||Top||21-42||Loss||-110||37 h 22 m||Show|
5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110
I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one.
The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one.
It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books.
Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York!
|12-11-19||Knicks v. Warriors -4.5||124-122||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Warriors laying a short number at home against the Knicks. The fact that the Warriors are just 5-20 overall and just lost at home as a favorite to a bad Memphis team, is a big part of the value we are getting here.
The thing is the Warriors are still playing to win and this Knicks team is one they can have their way with, especially at home. New York is 1-10 on the road this season and are getting outscored on the road by 15.1 ppg. Not to mention the Knicks are in a tough scheduling spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Portland. Take Golden State!
|12-11-19||Hawks v. Bulls -4.5||102-136||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS CASH COW on Bulls -4½ -110
I like the value here with the Bulls laying a short number at home against the Hawks. Chicago has went from a team a lot of people were really high on to start the year to a team no one really wants anything to do with, especially as a favorite.
Those that have taken advantage of the poor perception on the Bulls have been rewarded with some nice profits here of late. Chicago has covered 5 of their last 6 and now are laying a small number against a bad Hawks team that is just 3-10 on the road, where they are getting outscored by 13.3 ppg. Take Chicago!
|12-11-19||Boise State +3 v. Tulsa||Top||56-69||Loss||-110||14 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State +3 -110
Love the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Golden Hurricane, as my numbers say Boise State should be favored here. Tulsa comes in at 7-2, but it's a fraudulent mark, as they have played the 353rd ranked strength of schedule.
We saw some of how overvalued the Golden Hurricane are in their last game, as they lost outright at home as a 13-point favorite to Arkansas State. Boise State on the other hand has been way undervalued of late. Broncos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
I just don't see Tulsa being able to keep pace offensively. Tulsa is only averaging 70.9 ppg and that's against opponents that on average give up 75.7 ppg. Boise State is scoring 81.0 ppg and that's against opponents that are giving up just 71.0 ppg. Take Boise State!
|12-11-19||Rockets -10.5 v. Cavs||116-110||Loss||-115||13 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -10½ -115
I got no problem laying double-digits here with Houston, as we should get a big effort with the Rockets coming off a upset loss at home to the Kings. Not many better teams to get right against than the Cavs right now. After losing by 47 at Philadelphia on Saturday they responded by losing by 22 at Boston. Houston can pretty much name the score in this one.
Rockets have covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and have covered 4 of their last 5 off a loss and failed cover. Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record and have lost 4 straight as a dog. Take Houston!
|12-11-19||Yale v. Massachusetts +4.5||83-80||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Massachusetts +4½ -110
I like the value here with UMass as a small home dog against the Bulldogs. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Minutemen after losing 5 straight and getting drubbed in their last game at Harvard 89-55. It' also the perfect time to sell high on Yale, who has won 5 straight and covered 8 in a row.
It's not like UMass has been losing to a bunch of bad teams. They were a dog in all 5 losses and 4 of those were away from home. We should get a max effort here from the Minutemen in this one. For Yale, I think they are not only overpriced, but also in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight on the road in a 8 day stretch. Take UMASS!
|12-10-19||Knicks +9 v. Blazers||87-115||Loss||-105||12 h 33 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS BAILOUT on Knicks +9 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a near double-digit dog against the Blazers. This is just too big a price for Portland to be laying right now. Blazers are down two starters to injury in Zach Collins and Rodney Hood and are still trying to adjust to life with Carmelo Anthony.
Portland has lost 3 of 4 and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Knicks have lost 9 straight, which is why the line is what it is, but several of those have been single-digit defeats. History is also on our side with New York.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games in the month of December are 45-20 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!
|12-10-19||Nevada +8.5 v. BYU||Top||42-75||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nevada +8½ -110
I really like the value here with the Wolf Pack as a near double-digit dog against the Cougars. Steve Alford is doing a tremendous job in his first year with Nevada, despite having to put together a make-shift roster after all 5 starters and 7 of the top 8 rotation players departed.
Wolf Pack come in having won 5 straight. All five wins have come by double-digits as a single-digit favorite, so they are far exceeding the books value on them right now. Nevada definitely has the offensive fire-power to hand with BYU, as the Wolf Pack come in averaging 79.6 ppg. What's crazy is they score even more on the road, as they are scoring 81.2 ppg and shooting 49.1% from the field away from home.
BYU has not been a good bet in games that are expected to be shootouts, as they are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games with a total of 150 to 159.5. Cougars are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Nevada!
|12-10-19||Maryland v. Penn State +1||69-76||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Penn State +1 -110
This line really says it all. You got the No. 4 ranked team and undefeated (10-0) team in the country the slimmest of road favorites against an unranked Penn State team. Books clearly like the Nittany Lions to win this game and so do I.
Maryland is talented, there's no denying that, but they lack chemistry, routinely get off to slow starts and don't take high percentage shots. They were extremely fortunate to win at home against Illinois last time out, as they went on a 11-1 run in the last 5 minutes to win 59-58.
Penn State isn't just good enough to get up on the Terps, but they can bury them if Maryland doesn't bring their 'A' game tonight. Nittany Lions are 5-0 at home and are shooting 47% from the field at home, while allowing just 38%. Atmosphere is going to be electric as well and this is easily the toughest true road game of the season for Maryland. Take Penn State!
|12-09-19||Cavs +14 v. Celtics||88-110||Loss||-105||7 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Cavs +14 -105
The Cavs are definitely worth a look here as a huge road dog against the Celtics. I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Cleveland. I just think the number here has been inflated due to the fact that Boston is such a big public team and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Cleveland also comes in having lost 6 straight and are just 1-5 ATS in this stretch.
These two played at Cleveland a little over a month ago (Nov. 5) and the Cavs hung around in that one at home, losing by just 6 and that was with Boston shooting 57% from the field. Celtics have also failed to produce in this spot, as they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 at home vs a team with a losing record and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Cleveland!