15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be this big of an underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight in a game I believe they can win outright. Cleveland will be the more motivated team due to events leading up to this game. Atlanta is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Atlanta has won six straight over Cleveland, including a 103-87 victory on March 18th just three nights ago. With a rematch occurring in such a short amount of time, I have no doubt that the Cavaliers are going to be hungry for payback. Look for Atlanta to be 'disinterested' when they take the floor after winning six in a row over Cleveland.

This play falls into a system that is 22-6 (78.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Knicks/76ers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5

The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers play in a crucial Atlantic Division showdown tonight. New York trails Philly by four games, and I expect both teams to be laying it all on the line tonight. In my opinion, that will lead to a defensive battle as points will be hard to come by.

The Knicks have won four straight games to get within striking distance of the 76ers. They've done so with tremendous defense, holding their last four opponents to an average of just 88.5 points/game. Interim head coach Mike Woodson has put an emphasis on playing better defense, and his players have certainly responded.

Philadelphia is one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. They limit opponents to just 87.7 points/game overall, including 84.2 points/game at home. Considering Philly only averages 93.7 points/game at home, they are combining with their opponents to average 177.9 points/game in all home games. That's a far cry from the 192.5-point total set tonight.

The 76ers are 23-8 to the UNDER in their last 31 home games, and the Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER in their last 28 road games. Phillly is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 20-6 in 76ers last 26 games as a home favorite. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4

The Portland Trail Blazers should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the Milwaukee Bucks. A big reason this line is so small is because of Portland's recent struggles. Another reason is that Milwaukee added Monte Ellis recently. The value is to the point where pulling the trigger on Portland is the only move tonight.

The Blazers have already started playing better since firing head coach Nate McMillan and replacing him with interim coach Kaleb Canales. They went on the road and beat the Chicago Bulls 100-89 before going on the road to lose to the Oklahoma City Thunder. After facing two of the league's best teams, the Bucks will seem like a cake walk tonight.

Milwaukee is playing very well recently, winners of five straight. That's why oddsmakers are giving the Bucks so much respect tonight. However, all five of those wins came against teams with losing records. They beat New York, Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland and Golden State during this stretch. I'm not buying that this is a lot better team just because they added Ellis.

The Bucks have dropped eight of nine to the Blazers, including five straight on the road by 12.6 points per contest. Milwaukee is 1-13 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference foes. Milwaukee is 43-70 ATS in their last 113 after 3 or more consecutive wins. The Blazers are 16-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Take Portland Tuesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing some of their best value of the season Monday as a 9-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers. The betting public refuses to back this team with any regularity because they own the league's worst record. Now is the time to ride Charlotte.

The Bobcats have finally gotten healthy, which means they are a much better team than they were in the first half. Charlotte has quietly gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have covered two in a row with impressive showings at Dallas (96-101 loss) and versus Toronto (107-103 victory).

Philly is not playing well right now as they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They did play some tough games during this stretch, but they were not even really competitive. The 76ers lost at Indiana 94-111, versus Miami 78-84, and at Chicago 80-89. After playing three of the best teams in the East, the 76ers are going to have a hard time getting up for Charlotte mentally.

The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the 76ers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 in this series. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11

I always look to fade the Los Angeles Lakers whenever they are favored by double-digits. They are notorious for playing down to their competition, which means it is very tough for them to blow out teams that they are supposed to.

Utah has been playing well lately as they have won three of their last four games, including back-to-back wins over the Timberwolves and Warriors. The Lakers have only beaten the Jazz by more than 11 points once in their last five meetings.

The Lakers are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The Jazz are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. L.A. is 17-42 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Jazz Sunday.

15* Warriors/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

The Golden State Warriors are one of the most underrate teams I've ever seen. They are playing their best basketball of the season, yet they still get no respect. They should not be a 7-point underdog to the Utah Jazz today.

These two teams have played twice this season. Utah won in Golden State by a single point, but the Warriors would have their revenge with an 18-point victory at Utah. The third meeting between these teams will come down to the wire, and I'll take the dog every time.

The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes. The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Warriors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5

Any time the Lakers are this heavy of a favorite, I usually look to fade. They always play down to their competition. Minnesota wants revenge from two losses against the Lakers in this head-to-head series to start the season.

The Lakers will be disinterested after already beating the Timberwolves twice. Minnesota will be the more motivated team, which makes them a great play tonight.

Minnesota is 24-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 14-27 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder +1

Any time you can get the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog, it's probably worth pulling the trigger. I believe that's especially the case tonight against the overmatched Denver Nuggets. The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league to back following a loss.

The Thunder are 32-10 on the season as they own the best record in the Western Conference. They have only lost back-to-back games once all season, which really shows the character of this team. Coming off a 103-104 home loss to Houston two nights ago, the Thunder are going to be out for blood tonight.

Oklahoma City is 52-24-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a S.U. loss. The Thunder are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Nuggets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. OKC is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games off a home loss. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +4.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. This team is undervalued right now due to the fact that they just traded Monte Ellis to the Milwaukee Bucks. They didn't have him last night, and they won 115-89 at Sacramento.

I don't believe the loss of Ellis will hurt this team one bit. They still have three stud guards in Stephon Curry, Klay Thompson and Nate Robinson, so they have plenty of depth at the position. Adding a big man like Andrew Bogut is precisely what they needed.

The Warriors are in a great state of mind right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They beat the defending champion Mavericks 111-87, followed by a huge road win at the Los Angeles Clippers 97-93, and then that 26-point victory at Sacramento last night. Their confidence is at an all-time high right now.

The Celtics are just 6-11 on the road this season where they are scoring 88.6 points/game. Boston is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are once again showing amazing value tonight against the Houston Rockets. Because the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, the betting public continues to stay off them. Now is the time to hop on board with this kind of value folks.

I'm not going to make an argument that Charlotte is a great team, because they are not. But the Bobcats were beat up with injuries in the first half, and they are just now finally starting to get healthy. I have no doubt they'll be more competitive from here on out given their health.

Houston is in a huge letdown spot tonight, plus they will be the more tired team. The Rockets are coming off a big 1-point road win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. After playing and defeating the top team in the West, the Rockets will have a hard time getting motivated to face the team with the worst record in the league tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (HOUSTON) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Not only are they tired, but the Rockets could be without two of their best players in Kyle Lowry & Kevin Martin, who are each listed as questionable. Take Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +3

Golden State is playing their best basketball of the season right now. As an underdog against the lowly Sacramento Kings (14-27) tonight, I'll pull the trigger on the Warriors once again. I had them Sunday night in a 97-93 outright road win over the Clippers as a 7-point underdog as well.

That win over the Clippers was their second impressive victory in a row. They had just beaten the defending champion Dallas Mavericks 111-87 the night before. Those two wins right there show that the Warriors are capable of playing with just about anyone. Now healthy with Curry, Ellis, and Lee in full force, this is a dangerous team the rest of the way.

This play falls into a system that is 63-33 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SACRAMENTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Nets UNDER 198

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total. I believe they have set it too high due to recent high-scoring games that the Bucks and Nets have played in. The clear value in this one is with the UNDER, and for a number of reasons.

The biggest reason is the fact that New Jersey is likely to be without their two leading scorers in Deron Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) and Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG). The Nets will struggle to find points without Williams, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury.

New Jersey just combined for 218 points with Houston in their last game, while Milwaukee has combined for 204 or more points in three straight contests. Those efforts were "abnormal" considering these are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Nets are only scoring 92.3 points/game at home while the Bucks are putting up just 93.0 points/game on the road.

Milwaukee beat New Jersey 92-85 in their lone meeting this season for 177 combined points on February 19th. That total was set at 195 points, and somehow they have raised this total to 198. Nine of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen 197 or less combined points as these teams have gone UNDER 198 points 82% of the time during this stretch. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I like the Milwaukee Bucks quite a bit tonight against the New Jersey Nets. The Bucks are playing much better of late, winning three of their last four games overall while going 4-0 ATS in the process. Their lone loss was a 104-106 setback to the Chicago Bulls, one of the best teams in the league.

One of the biggest reasons I have for this play is the fact that Deron Williams is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. Without Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) on the floor, the Nets are arguably the worst team in the league. They are already without second-leading scorer Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG) as well.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Milwaukee is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New Jersey dating back to 2009. Even more impressive is the fact that they've won all nine of those games by 7 points or more, and seven by double-digits. Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* Warriors/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

Golden State is showing great value Sunday as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors are coming off an emphatic 111-87 win over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, giving them the confidence they need to beat anyone in this league.

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Golden State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are primed to give the Miami Heat a run for their money tonight. Indiana is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season, and they're fully capable of pulling off this upset tonight.

Having not played since a 96-101 home loss to Atlanta on March 6th, the Pacers will be chomping at the bit to return to game action tonight. They have had three days off so they'll be rested and better prepared to take on the Heat.

Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat have already beaten the Pacers twice this season, so I could see them being disinterested here, which will likely lead to a letdown. Take Indiana Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +3

The Charlotte Bobcats are playing much better of late now that they have finally started to get healthy. The Bobcats are undervalued because they own the league's worst record, but they are going to be a very profitable bet at the pay window going forward because of it.

Charlotte is a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost to the Nets 101-104 as a 4.5 points underdog, beat the Magic 100-84 as a 9-point dog, and lost to the Jazz 93-99 as a 7-point dog. After just losing to New Jersey recently, there's no question that Charlotte is going to be motivated for revenge, while the Nets will be disinterested tonight.

The Nets are 2-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. New Jersey is 3-13 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 2-12 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, New Jersey has a tough time getting up to play teams like Charlotte. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.

15* Mavericks/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks have simply owned the Phoenix Suns over the last few years. I look for more of the same tonight against a Phoenix team that is nowhere near as good as it was over the last decade. Phoenix is down, while Dallas remains a title contender as they look to repeat.

Dallas is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Phoenix. If that's not domination, I don't know what is. They have won all eight games by 6 points or more as well, so it's not like these contests have been all that close. This is simply a tough match-up for the Suns, and that's not going to change tonight.

Phoenix played a hard-fought game last night at Oklahoma City, falling by a final of 104-115. Meanwhile, Dallas had the night off, so there's no question the Mavericks will be the fresher team heading into this one. Phoenix could still be deflated from blowing a double-digit lead last night.

The Suns are 1-11 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 8-26 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +1

The Portland Trail Blazers want revenge from a 122-110 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves just four nights ago on March 3rd. There's no question that the Blazers are going to be the more motivated team in this spot.

Not only will the Timberwolves have a hard time getting up for this game because they just beat the Blazers, they may also be looking ahead to their next game. Minnesota just lost to the Los Angeles Lakers on February 29th, but they'll have their chance for revenge with the Lakers coming up next on Friday. Portland is surely going to be in a better mental state of mind coming into this one.

Portland has won eight straight in Minnesota since March 25, 2007, winning by an average of 17.2 points in its last five visits. The Timberwolves win in Portland a few nights ago was a rarity in this series to say the least. The Blazers are now 16-1 in their last 17 meetings with Minnesota overall.

The Blazers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest. The Timberwolves are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, including 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Blazers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Minnesota. Take Portland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5

The Houston Rockets are favored for a reason here tonight. Oddsmakers believe they are going to get back on track, and so do I. They face the perfect team to do so in the lowly Toronto Raptors, who are just 12-26 on the season.

Houston has lost four straight games, so there's no question they are hungry to get back on track with a win tonight. Those four losses came on the the road to Utah and Boston, and at home to Denver and the LA Clippers. After playing such a tough schedule during this stretch, the Rockets will enjoy getting this opportunity to face overmatched Toronto.

The Rockets are 17-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less since 1996. Houston is 50-19 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Rockets are 29-10 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. As you can see, this team is a great bet when trying to bounce back from multiple losses. Houston is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Heat OVER 195.5

The New Jersey Nets and Miami Heat will take part in a shootout tonight in a game where I foresee 200-plus combined points with ease. New Jersey is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and Miami can light up the scoreboard as well as anyone when they want to.

New Jersey is giving up 99.3 points/game this season on 47.6 percent shooting. They gave up 107 points at Boston and 101 points at Charlotte in their last two games, respectively. You can just imagine what Miami is going to do against their defense tonight if those two offensively-challenged teams put up over 100.

Miami is torching the Nets this year to the tune of 103.1 points/game and 48.4 percent shooting. The Heat are putting up 104.6 points/game on 49.7 percent shooting at home this season. They have scored 102-plus points in eight of their last 11 games overall.

This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on any team (MIAMI) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%). Miami is 12-3 to the OVER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mavs/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder are very familiar with one another after playing in the Western Conference Finals last season. They certainly know how to stop one another defensively, which has been evident in their first two meetings of the year.

Dallas won the first meeting at home 100-87 for 187 combined points on January 2nd, but would lose at home 86-95 for 181 combined points in their next meeting on February 1st. I fully expect this game to be played in the 180's once again as it stays well below the posted total tonight.

The Mavericks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league all season, but they are struggling to find the basket this year. The Mavs are scoring 94.2 points/game overall, including 91.5 points/game on the road. Dallas gives up just 91.3 points/game on the season and 91.6 points/game on the road. The Thunder only allow 94.3 points/game at home.

Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These three trends make for a 20-2 (91%) system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189.5

This game has defensive battle written all over it. The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are very familiar with each other after meeting up in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season. They know how to contain one another defensively because of this familiarity.

In their first meeting this season, the Pacers and Bulls combined for 185 points with a 95-90 road victory by Indiana. That low-scoring output should come as no surprise consider four of their last five meetings have seen 186 or less combined points.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league as the Bulls give up 88.3 points/game overall, including 85.4 points/game at home. Indiana yields just 91.9 points/game overall and 92.6 points/game on the road.

Chicago is 30-14 to the UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Pacers last 7 vs. Eastern Conference, 5-0 in Bulls last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. These last three trends make for a 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers should not be an underdog at home to the Miami Heat. Los Angeles is going to approach this game like its the NBA Finals. Kobe Bryant has lost five straight games against Lebron James, and there's no question it's eating at him. He changes that today with a victory over the Heat.

Ever since Kobe came out in public and backed up Pau Gasol in terms of trade talks, the Lakers have been rolling. L.A. is 4-1 in their last five games overall during this stretch, and their lone loss came at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best record in the West, so that's no surprise.

Miami is 4-16 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. L.A. is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season. Bet Los Angeles Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +9.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value Saturday as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Orlando Magic. I like the Bucks' state of mind heading into this game, and believe they will be determined enough to not only cover this spread, but likely win the game outright.

Milwaukee is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS against Orlando this season, with all three losses coming by 9 points or less. They are 0-3 despite having held a lead in the 4th quarter of every single game. The Bucks have simply given all three games away down the stretch, so there's no question it has left a sour taste in their mouths.

While Milwaukee will come out fired up and ready to play to get revenge, Orlando is likely to come out flat after having already beaten this team three times. Plus, the Magic are deflated from their 102-105 home loss to Oklahoma City on National TV Thursday. They held a double-digit lead going into the 4th quarter and managed to blow it. Look for them to suffer a 'hangover' effect here.

The Magic are 13-28 ATS in their last 41 games off a close home loss by 3 points or less. Milwaukee is 28-14 ATS in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 8-24 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Saturday.

15* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +10.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. The Los Angeles Lakers always seem to play to their competition, and it's usually a good bet to fade them whenever they are a double-digit favorite against a team they are "supposed" to dominate.

While Sacramento is just 12-23 this season, they are clearly improved from a year ago. The biggest reason for their poor record has been a brutal schedule that has featured 21 road games and only 14 home games. It's safe to say that this team is battle-tested on the road and will not be phased by the Lakers tonight.

Since the end of January, the Kings have been one of the most profitable teams in the league at the pay window. Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, losing by double-digits just three times during this stretch. Ten of those 16 games were on the road as well.

The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Sacramento is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Lakers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games as a favorite of 10 or more. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are clearly going to be showing great value throughout the second half of the season. They were clearly the worst team in the first half, which is what will keep the betting public off of them. As a result, the Bobcats should show a nice profit at the pay window for weeks to come.

I especially like Charlotte in this spot tonight against a deflated San Antonio Spurs team. The Spurs are coming off a tough home loss to the Chicago Bulls last time out. They wanted that game pretty badly to prove that they were among the NBA's elite. I have a hard time seeing them coming back motivated to face the team with the league's worst record tonight.

One of the biggest reason for the Bobcats' struggles in the first half was injuries. Charlotte just couldn't seem to get healthy, but they finally have most of their players back heading into the second half. Key players like Corey Maggette, Gerald Henderson and D.J. Augustin have all returned from injury. All three of those guys are starters, so they're obviously important.

This play falls into a system that is 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.

The Spurs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. The Bobcats are 41-22 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1996. Bet Charlotte Friday.

20* Thunder/Magic TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the Western Conference, hands down. Any time they face a team from the East, unless it's the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls, the Thunder should be at least a 4-point favorite on the road. They basically just have to win this game to cover this small spread, and that's precisely what I expect them to do.

With last night's impressive win at Philadelphia, the Thunder have improved to 28-7 on the season. They are simply rolling right now, winners of six straight overall, all by 4 points or more. Orlando is a solid team at 23-13 this season, but they're not on the same level as Oklahoma City.

This is a good match-up for the Thunder. They have Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, one of the best shot blockers in the league, inside to defend Dwight Howard. Orlando doesn't have anybody that can stay with Russell Westbrook, and they certainly do not have an answer defensively for Kevin Durant. OKC won their first meeting with Orlando this season 97-89 behind 30 points from Durant. They held Howard to just 11 points.

The Magic are 0-8 ATS after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* Rockets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz have certainly been struggling of late, but a lot of that has to do with playing one of the toughest schedule in the league in the month of February. I believe this team is undervalued heading into tonight's game with Houston because of their recent struggles. They are favored for good reason tonight.

Utah has lost nine of their last 11, but eight of those 11 games were played on the road, and two of their three home games came against the top two teams in the Western Conference in the Thunder and Spurs. Their road schedule has been a daunting one as well. It's safe to say the the Jazz are going to be extra hungry for a victory tonight to get back on track.

They should have no problem winning this game on their home floor, where they have been pretty impressive all season. This has been one of the best home teams in the league over the last decade as Salt Lake City provides a great atmosphere for basketball. The Jazz are 12-6 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 6-10 on the road.

Houston has won four straight, but all four of those wins came at home. This sets them up for a big letdown spot tonight as they are overrated due to their winning streak. This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. Roll with the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers +10

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing great value Wednesday as a double-digit underdog to the New York Knicks. Cleveland has been underrated all season, and that's certainly the case tonight. Meanwhile, the New York Knicks are way overvalued right now due to their recent surge thanks to Jeremy Lin.

At 13-19 on the season, the Cavaliers are certainly improved from a year ago. Kyrie Irving is playing out of his mind and is the clear choice for Rookie of the Year honors through the All-Star Break. Cleveland is only getting outscored by an average of 3.6 points/game on the season, including 4.7 points/game on the road.

New York is just 17-18 on the year even with their recent 7-game winning streak. While Lin has improved this team, now is the time to fade them with all of the hype the Knicks have been getting in the media. Plus, New York is just 1-2 since Carmelo Anthony returned to the line-up, which has thrown of the chemistry the team had prior to him coming back.

This play falls into a system that is 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%). The Knicks are just 6-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Pacers UNDER 202

The Golden State Warriors and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight that doesn't reach 200 combined points. Oddsmakers have inflated this total quite a bit in a game that I believe will be played in the high 180's or low 190's.

Golden State head coach Mark Jackson has brought a defensive-minded approach to the Warriors. While their defensive numbers (100.7 PPG allowed) won't "wow" you, it's certainly a huge improvement over the types of numbers they have posted over the last decade. This team can defend, and they will certainly miss Stephen Curry (foot) offensively as he is listed as doubtful.

Indiana has been one of the better defensive teams in the league all season. They score 95.5 points and give up 92.5 points for an average combined score of 188.0 points/game. As you can see, that average is well below the posted total tonight. I look for the Pacers to control the tempo at home tonight and to slow it down.

These teams met once already this season with Indiana beating Golden State 94-91 on the road for 185 combined points. That total was set at 193.5 going in, so I just see no way oddsmakers can justify setting this total all the way up above 200 points. The clear value is with the UNDER in this one.

Indiana is 16-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 41-25 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Pacers last 17 home games. The UNDER is 13-4 in Warriors last 17 vs. NBA Central. The Warriors are 51-32 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Heat NBA on TNT No-Brainer on New York +10

The New York Knicks are showing solid value Thursday as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat. This team is hitting on all cylinders right now and they're ready to prove they are for real by giving the Eastern Conference-leading Heat a run for their money.

I see this game being decided by single-digits either way as the Knicks continue to play their best basketball of the season behind Jeremy Lin. They have won nine of their last 11 games and just recently got Carmelo Anthony back from injury.

New York played very well as a team in their 99-82 victory over Atlanta last night, and I look for them to carry that momentum into Miami tonight. The Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 7-game winning streak and this is clearly the perfect time to fade them.

The Knicks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New York is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with the Heat. These three trends make for a perfect 17-0 system backing New York. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +9

The Denver Nuggets should not be catching nine points against the Los Angeles Clippers. While Denver is dealing with some injuries, this is one of the deepest teams in the league and they are still a dangerous opponent in the Western Conference short-handed.

Denver has played some of their best basketball on the road this season, going 9-8 SU and a very profitable 12-5 ATS. They are putting up a whopping 106.1 points/game away from home this year, and took Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City to overtime in their last road contest.

The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. Denver is 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. The Nuggets are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games dating back to last year. Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles +5

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from getting swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs last year. While the Lakers already beat the Mavs earlier this season at home in their first meeting, there's no question that they will continue to want payback tonight.

Knowing the nature of Kobe Bryant, he's going to hold that against the Mavs until the end of his career. Every time he plays Dallas, he's going to remember getting swept in 2011. Behind a motivated effort, I look for the Lakers to win this game outright.

L.A. played arguably their best game of the season in a 103-92 victory over Portland last time out. They moved the ball great on offense, and held the Blazers to just 30 points in the first half before letting off the gas after intermission. The team held a players' only meeting after that win, which should only bring the Lakers closer together.

The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Mavericks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4

The Houston Rockets are one of the more underrated teams in the league this season. Philadelphia is certainly overrated right now due to their fast start. I'll lay this small number with the Rockets at home in a game I see them winning by 7-plus tonight.

The 76ers are overvalued right now because they are 20-13, but they have played 19 home games compared to 14 road games this season. They have finally started to play more road games here of late, and are 0-3 in their last three road games.

Philly is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, including a 76-89 loss at Memphis last night. They will be playing their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days while the Rockets come in on a days' rest. The Rockets are 13-4 at home this season, winning by 6.7 points/game.

The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Philly is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Houston. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Cavaliers UNDER 192.5

The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers will play part in a defensive battle tonight. Both squads are playing solid basketball of late, which can mostly be attributed to improvement at the defensive end of the floor.

Detroit has allowed less than 100 points in nine of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland has allowed less than 100 in 10 of their last 13 contests. I don't see either squad eclipsing 100 tonight, which will make it very difficult for this game go to over the number.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as well. Detroit is only scoring 88.0 points/game this season, including 85.0 points/game on the road. Cleveland isn't a whole lot better at 93.8 points/game on the year.

Cleveland is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cleveland's last 4 games overall. These three trends make for a 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 39-13 in the last 52 meetings, and 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a mere 4-point home favorite over the Portland Trail Blazers. They have been simply money at home all season, and this is a very generous line tonight.

The only reason I can see the Lakers being such a small favorite here is because they are playing the second of a back-to-back. But you could argue that Portland is the more tired team as they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while the Lakers are only playing their 4th game in 8 days. Off a poor performance last night in Phoenix, there's no doubt the L.A. will come back motivated tonight.

Los Angeles is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.8 points/game. They are only yielding 85.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting at home. That's bad news for the Blazers, who are just 5-10 on the road this season, scoring 91.3 points/game on 41.8 percent shooting.

This play falls into a system that is 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. L.A. is 32-8 in their last 40 and 16-3 in their last 19 home meetings with Portland at Staples Center. Roll with the Lakers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to beat Orlando for the first time this season. I like their chances of getting revenge in a very tough spot for the Magic.

I just don't see Orlando bringing the motivation it's going to take to come away with a road victory tonight. The Magic have won the first two meetings with the Bucks this season, and they are coming off a deflating 78-90 loss at Miami yesterday. After playing the Heat, the Magic will have a hard time getting up for the Bucks.

Milwaukee easily could have won both games against Orlando this season. They held the lead going into the 4th quarter in both contests, and blew a 7-point lead in Orlando with less than six minutes remaining just four nights ago on February 17th. This will be their 3rd meeting in the last 10 days, so there's no question the Bucks are going to be the more motivated team.

The home team is 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Magic. Scott Skiles is 40-19 ATS in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games in all games he has coached. Take Milwaukee Monday.

15* Magic/Heat ABC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -9

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I look for that to continue on National TV this afternoon as they get revenge on the Orlando Magic from an earlier loss this month. A motivated Heat team is certainly a dangerous one.

Miami lost 102-89 at Orlando on 2/8 for their worst loss of the season. There's no question this team has payback in mind, and I am banking on them getting it by double-digits at home this afternoon. Miami is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning all five contests by 15 points or more. Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 197

The total in this game has been set way too high Saturday in a game that will result in a defensive battle. Both teams come in tired as they will be playing their second of a back-to-back. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 5 days and Golden State is playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

These teams already met once this season in what was certainly a defensive battle. Memphis won at Golden State 91-90 for 181 combined points. The Warriors only managed 90 points despite shooting 50.0 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies shot 42.4 percent. I look for a similar final score tonight.

Golden State is 17-5 to the UNDER in their last 22 when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These last three trends make for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Golden State Warriors +10.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be catching double-digit points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Golden State will be the more motivated team tonight, which means they will be giving the better effort which should result in a cover against this inflated spread.

Golden State has lost their first two meetings with Oklahoma City by 11 and 3 points, respectively. They'll want revenge tonight, while the Thunder could certainly be disinterested after opening 2-0 in this season series. The Warriors have been really tough in this series on the road, not losing any of their last three road meetings by more than 8 points.

The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Golden State is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City. Add up these three trends and we have a 20-2 (91%) System backing the Warriors. Take Golden State Friday.

25* Mavs/76ers NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing their best value of the season tonight as just a small 2.5-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks. The 76ers will be amped up to take on the defending champs while also looking to bounce back from a loss at Orlando last time out.

Dallas is way overvalued with this line due to their five-game winning streak and their blowout home victory over the Denver Nuggets last time out. That was a Denver team playing without several of their key players. Their streak ends tonight.

Philly is 20-10 SU & 19-11 ATS on the season. That includes a 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.8 points/game. The 76ers only give up 83.6 points on 41.1 percent shooting at home this year. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series.

The 76ers have been incredible when trying to bounce back from a loss, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Philly is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. Philly has suffered back-to-back losses just once all season. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Orlando Magic are way overvalued right now due to winning seven of their last nine while entering this game on a three-game winning streak. The Milwaukee Bucks are undervalued thanks to a three-game losing streak heading in. I'll side with the value and back the live underdog tonight.

Milwaukee obviously wants to put an end to this losing streak in a hurry. They'll be the more motivated team in this one, while Orlando comes in relaxed and not as hungry. The Bucks have been tough on the road this season, only getting outscored by 4.0 points/game. Orlando is only outscoring opponents by 4.2 points/game at home.

The Bucks just played the Magic on 2/11 less than a week ago, falling 99-94. Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less. Milwaukee will be out for revenge tonight as well, only adding more incentive for them to cover this large spread.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Milwaukee Friday.

15* Clippers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

This is simply too low of a line to pass up on the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles is clearly the better team when you factor in who is playing in this game, and you have to believe they are out for some revenge after losing to Portland on the road earlier this season.

The Trail Blazers were able to go on the road and beat Golden State 93-91 last night without All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge. I can't see them having the same kind of success without Aldridge against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has a couple of pretty good players down low in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who should dominate this game on both sides of the floor. Without Aldridge (22.6 ppg) in the lineup, Portland's leading scorer is reserve Jamal Crawford at 14.3 ppg. They simply don't have enough offense to keep this game close.

The Clippers are 8-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Los Angeles is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Portland is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavs OVER 198

I fully expect the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks to take part in a shootout tonight. Points are usually easy to come by when these two teams get together, and I see them combining for 200-plus tonight with ease.

Denver is scoring 104.1 points/game and allowing 99.9 points/game this season for an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. Those numbers balloon to 107.1 for, 102.3 against and 209.4 combined in Denver road games.

Dallas is starting to light up the nets of late. The Mavericks are averaging 100.5 points/game in their last four. They should be able to take advantage of a Denver team that will be missing two key interior defenders in Nene Hilario and Timofey Mozgov. Look for the Mavs to get easy buckets around the rim all game.

Denver and Dallas have combined for 200 or more points in 14 of their last 15 meetings. That makes for a 14-1 (93%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be laying double-digits against any team in this league. I know the Charlotte Bobcats have the worst record, but there's no question that this line has been inflated. I'll take advantage tonight.

The biggest reason for Charlotte's early struggles has been injuries. But the Bobcats are finally starting to get healthy, and they could be a very solid value play not only tonight, but over the next few weeks. They just got back their best player in Corey Maggette, who scored 22 points last time out. Also, starting PG D.J. Augustin is expected to make his return tonight.

Minnesota comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak. The Timberwolves have been overmatched during this skid, and they have no business getting this much respect tonight. This is a flashy team with the addition of Ricky Rubio, which makes them a public team. While the Timberwolves are improved this year, they remain one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.

Charlotte has been a thorn in Minnesota's side for years. The Bobcats have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Timberwolves. That includes four road victories during this stretch, which dates back to 2007.

The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the Bobcats. Take Charlotte Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Hornets +9.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing their best value of the season tonight as nearly a double-digit underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee has no business being this heavily favored tonight in a game I believe the Hornets can win outright.

New Orleans finally put an end to their losing streak with an impressive 86-80 victory over the Utah Jazz two nights ago. Chris Kaman led the way with 27 points and 13 rebounds, while Greivis Vasquez dished out 10 assists filling in for the injured Jarrett Jack.

Milwaukee is just 12-16 on the season, yet they are getting treated like one of the elite teams in the NBA with this line tonight. The Bucks haven't won a game by double-digits since last month, and they could easily suffer a hangover from their blowout 96-114 home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.

The Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. New Orleans has won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Milwaukee, making for a 91% system backing them tonight. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic continue to be undervalued due to the trade talks surrounding Dwight Howard. The Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued due to their fast start. The clear value in this game is with the small home favorite.

Orlando is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games overall, beating up on some good teams while also taking advantage of soft lines. They have a win over Miami and solid road victories over the Pacers and Bucks during this stretch. Their only losses came by 5 points to the Clippers and by 2 points in overtime to the Hawks.

The 76ers are an impressive 20-9 on the season, but they have been doing most of their damage at home. Philly has played 18 home games compared to 11 road games this season, which is the biggest reason for their early success. The value is gone from this team for now, though it could come back later in the season.

This play falls into a system that is 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). After losing at Philly 69-74 in their first meeting this season, I like the Magic to have their revenge tonight. Roll with Orlando Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been virtually unstoppable at the Staples Center all season. They are 11-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game. Their 85.2 points/game allowed at home is by far the best in the Western Conference.

Atlanta's nine losses to clubs with winning records this season have come by an average of 13.1 points, and it's fallen behind by at least 20 in its last five defeats overall. The Hawks have lost five straight road games to the Lakers by an average of 17.0 points, allowing 109.2 points per game while shooting 25.0 percent from long distance.

The Lakers' role players have been excellent at home, but terrible on the road. Steve Blake and Matt Barnes are averaging a combined 18.0 points and shooting 47.2 percent at Staples compared to 10.5 points and 34.9 percent on the road. This team simply plays with a lot more confidence as a whole at home, and this is a very generous line tonight.

The Hawks are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 vs. Western Conference. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder UNDER 200

The Utah Jazz are extremely tired right now as this will be their 3rd road game in three days. I look for the Jazz to struggle offensively on tired legs, but for their defensive effort to be there. Utah will be coming up short on a lot of outside shots tonight.

The Thunder are a solid defensive team with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins inside. They only give up 93.7 points/game at home this season. Ibaka and Perkins really contained Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in their last game, a 101-87 road victory at Utah on 2/10. I expect a similar final in this one with well below 200 combined points.

Utah has been an UNDERS machine of late. The Jazz are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall. They have combined with their opponents to score 188 or less points in five of those six contests. OKC has combined their their opponents to score 196 or less points in four straight home games.

Utah is 44-22 to the UNDER in their last 66 when revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 games as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Phoenix Suns. Golden State continues to go under the radar. I believe this is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and it's simply taken some time to gel under new head coach Mark Jackson.

The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are riding a two-game winning streak with impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets (109-101) on the road and the Houston Rockets (106-97) at home. Under the defensive-minded Jackson, the Warriors are playing much better defense, giving up 100.7 points/game overall and less than 100 points/game at home.

Phoenix is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. That's indicated by the fact that the Suns are 12-15 SU & 12-15 ATS. Phoenix is only scoring 92.2 points/game away from home this season. They simply haven't surrounded Steve Nash with the kind of talent it takes to make this team a playoff contender.

The Warriors are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. The home team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Suns are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Golden State. Take the Warriors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bobcats OVER 176.5

The total has been set far too low in this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Bobcats. I fully expect these teams to combine for 180-plus points tonight to get this OVER with relative ease.

Looking at season averages alone, it's easy to see that there is some value with this OVER tonight. Philly combines with their opponents to average 182.5 points/game, including 190.7 points/game on the road. Charlotte combines with their opponents to average 187.2 points/game overall.

Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They give up 100.9 points/game on 47.1 percent shooting. I look for the 76ers to exceed the 100-point mark, paving the way for an easy OVER in this one.

The Bobcats have combined with their opponents for 178 or more points in six of their last seven games overall, and Philly has combined with their foes for 178 or more points in six of their last seven as well. These are two 86% OVER systems pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 188

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They give up just 91.7 points/game this season, including 91.6 points/game at home on 41.7 percent shooting. they like to play at a slow pace, so playing at home tonight the Grizzlies will control the tempo in this one.

Memphis is scoring 88.2 points/game and allowing 92.0 points/game in their last five contests for an average combined score of 180.2 points/game. I fully expect this game to see 180 or less combined points as the Grizzlies and Jazz take part in a defensive battle on National TV. These teams met earlier this season on 1/06 and combined for 179 points.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 15-7 in Jazz last 22 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Memphis. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Heat/Hawks ESPN ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -4

The Miami Heat are showing solid value Sunday as a mere 4-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. Rarely will you get the Heat at this kind of price. In my opinion, they are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bulls, so you should definitely pull the trigger any time you get them as a small favorite.

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.

Atlanta is 11-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Bulls/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Chicago -3

The Chicago Bulls are the real deal. Any time you can get the Bulls at this kind of price, you better take advantage. That's precisely what I'm doing Sunday as the Bulls go into Boston and come away with a blowout victory.

In my opinion, the Bulls are the best team in the league. They are 23-6 this season despite playing several games without Derrick Rose due to injury. While I expect Rose to play today, I still envision the Bulls covering either way.

This play falls into a system that is 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against road favorites (CHICAGO) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as a road favorite this season. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. These three trends make for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic are showing great value tonight as just a 2-point road favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks. Orlando remains one of the best teams in the league despite the trade talks for Dwight Howard.

Orlando owns Milwaukee, winning three straight in this series and six of their last seven meetings. The Magic come in the more motivated team tonight after losing in overtime last night to the Hawks, while the Bucks escaped with an overtime victory over the Cavaliers.

Another reason I like this play is because the head referee is Tony Brothers. He is known for favoring road teams. Road clubs are 14-9 ATS in all games he has officiated this season. In 2010-11 road teams were 43-27-1 ATS, in 2009-10 they were 49-21-2 ATS, in 2008-09 they were 38-34-2 ATS, and in 2007-08 they were 45-30 ATS. This is not by coincidence, folks.

The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Orlando is 7-2 ATS in thier last 9 road games. The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Take Orlando Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Grizzlies UNDER 184

The Memphis Grizzlies and Indiana Pacers are two of the best defensive teams in the league. I have no doubt this is going to be a defensive battle tonight when these teams square off in Memphis. I don't believe either team will reach 90 points in this one as it doesn't touch 180 combined points.

Memphis has been an UNDERS machine all season, especially since losing their best player in Zach Randolph to injury. The Grizzlies are 16-10 to the UNDER in all games as they score 92.5 points/game and allow 91.7 points/game. The Grizzlies and their last three opponents have combined for 178, 173 and 165 points.

Indiana is 14-11 to the UNDER in all games, scoring 94.2 points/game and allowing 91.3 points/game. Opponents are only shooting 42.1 percent from the floor against this revived Indiana defense. That's the biggest reason for their improvement this season as the Pacers come into this game at 17-8.

Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER in their last 7 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games as a favorite. These three trends make for a perfect 21-0 UNDER system. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Lakers/Knicks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are clearly the superior team, and that will show on the court tonight. They come in with a ton of confidence after beating the Boston Celtics in overtime last night, picking up a signature road win that has been eluding them. I look for L.A. to build off that performance by destroying New York here.

The Knicks have actually won two straight games without Carmelo Anthony or Amare Stoudemire. As I've seen in year's past, teams can win right away without their superstar(s), but it eventually catches up to them withing a few games.

New York is getting way too much respect with this line due to all the hype that PG Jeremy Lin is receiving. While Lin has played well, he has led the Knicks to wins over the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards, which is no big achievement. He and the Knicks' run comes to an end tonight against a legitimate opponent.

While the Lakers will be playing the second of a back-to-back, it won't affect them because they came into the Boston game on two days' rest. This team will give just as good of an effort as they did last night, which will be more than enough to beat the Knicks by 4-plus points.

The Lakers are 9-0 in their last nine meetings with New York dating back to 2007, winning eight times by 5 points or more. Kobe Bryant always gets up to play in Madison Square Garden, where he holds the single-game scoring record of 61 points. Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -13

The Chicago Bulls are simply storming through the NBA once again this season. This is a big number, but I'm willing to lay it as they'll be facing one of the worst NBA teams tonight. The best part about Chicago is that they rarely have letdowns, bringing their best effort night in and night out against all competition.

Chicago has won four straight games, including three in a row by 21 points or more all on the road against the Bucks, Nets and Hornets. The Bulls are 22-6 on the season, including 17-11 ATS. Chicago has won three straight over Charlotte, including a 101-84 victory in their last road meeting.

The Bobcats are 3-22 SU & 9-16 ATS in all games this season. Charlotte has lost 12 straight coming into this one, including seven of their last nine by double-digits. This team simply cannot be competitive because they are missing three of their best players in D.J. Augustine, Gerald Henderson and Corey Maggette.

The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Bobcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Charlotte is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing 2 consecutive road games. Roll with the Bulls Friday.

20* Thunder/Kings TNT Late-Night PARLAY on Sacramento +7/OVER 201.5

I like both of these plays quite a bit tonight. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best basketball of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an OVERS machine of late. I believe both selections get the cash tonight.

I am on Sacramento because they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. While they have only won three of those six games, their three losses all came on the road by a combined 8 points, and they were never beaten by more than 3 points. The Kings also picks up impressive home wins over the Blazers and Warriors.

Oklahoma City is simply overvalued at this point in the season due to the fact that they own the best record in the Western Conference at 20-5. But this team has simply been winning most of their close games, which is the reason for their good record. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.8 points/game on average, including 2.1 points/game on the road.

Sacramento has played the Thunder very tough at home over the past few seasons. The Kings have not lost to Oklahoma City by more than 8 points in any of their last six home meetings. Five of those six games were decided by 6 points or less.

Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last 8 games overall. Not surprisingly, they have played their last six games without top defender Thabo Sefolosha, who is expected to miss tonight's game as well. The Thunder have topped the 100-point mark in six of their last eight games, but they have given up 109 or more points in five of their last seven. This team is not playing any defense right now.

The last two meetings in this series have seen 232 and 222 combined points, respectively. I expect a similar shootout tonight between two teams that play little defense. The OVER is 10-1 in Thunder last 11 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The OVER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings and the OVER tonight.

20* Thunder/Kings TNT Late-Night PARLAY on Sacramento +7/OVER 201.5

I like both of these plays quite a bit tonight. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best basketball of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an OVERS machine of late. I believe both selections get the cash tonight.

I am on Sacramento because they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. While they have only won three of those six games, their three losses all came on the road by a combined 8 points, and they were never beaten by more than 3 points. The Kings also picks up impressive home wins over the Blazers and Warriors.

Oklahoma City is simply overvalued at this point in the season due to the fact that they own the best record in the Western Conference at 20-5. But this team has simply been winning most of their close games, which is the reason for their good record. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.8 points/game on average, including 2.1 points/game on the road.

Sacramento has played the Thunder very tough at home over the past few seasons. The Kings have not lost to Oklahoma City by more than 8 points in any of their last six home meetings. Five of those six games were decided by 6 points or less.

Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last 8 games overall. Not surprisingly, they have played their last six games without top defender Thabo Sefolosha, who is expected to miss tonight's game as well. The Thunder have topped the 100-point mark in six of their last eight games, but they have given up 109 or more points in five of their last seven. This team is not playing any defense right now.

The last two meetings in this series have seen 232 and 222 combined points, respectively. I expect a similar shootout tonight between two teams that play little defense. The OVER is 10-1 in Thunder last 11 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The OVER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings and the OVER tonight.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing awesome value as just a small home favorite tonight over the San Antonio Spurs. This is a very generous line to back one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.

Philly is 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS in all games this season. That includes a 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS mark in home games. The 76ers are outscoring opponents 95.7 to 82.9 at home this season, or by an average of 12.8 points/game. They are the best defensive team in the league, allowing a mere 86.6 points/game in all games.

San Antonio is overrated due to their recent 5-game winning streak. This is a team that has done most of their damage at home, and little damage on the road. The Spurs are 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 5.0 points/game. They are giving up a whopping 98.3 points/game away from home.

The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game. Philly is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with San Antonio. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing Philly. Plus, the home team has won eight straight meetings, and the 76ers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings with the Spurs. Bet Philadelphia Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +14

Because the Charlotte Bobcats are off to such a poor start, this team is going to show great value over the next few weeks. The Bobcats are clearly struggling this year, but the value is there to pull the trigger tonight. Boston should not be this heavily favored.

The Celtics have not been a consistent team this season. They cannot be expected to blow the Bobcats out tonight. The Celtics are 13-10 on the year with very few wins by this margin. With the Lakers coming up next, I'm expecting the Celtics to look ahead to that rivalry, which is the most storied in the NBA.

Looking ahead when facing the Bobcats became a regular occurrence last season. Charlotte actually went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Celtics last year. They won outright as a 13-point dog and as a 4.5 point dog, while also losing by 5 as an 8-point dog. Two of those three games were in Boston.

This play falls into a system that is 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in February games. Boston is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Pacers UNDER 193.5

The Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This line opened at 189 and has been bet all the way to 193.5 as the public is on the OVER. This provides us with ample value to pull the trigger on the UNDER. Looking at season averages alone, this is a no-brainer.

Utah is scoring 96.9 points/game and giving up 96.9 points/game for an average combined score of 193.8 points/game. Sure, that number is basically right at tonight's posted total, but looking at Indiana's numbers tells the story.

The Pacers are scoring 94.0 points/game and giving up 90.7 points/game for an averaged combined score of 184.7 points/game. Those numbers drop to 93.9 and 87.5 for an average of 181.4 points/game in Indiana home games. The Pacers will control the tempo at home tonight and I expect a final to come in the low 180's.

Indiana is 11-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 home games where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points. I'm seeing an average combined score of 183.7 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 10-4 in Jazz last 14 road games. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pacers last 11 home games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +2

The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog an home to the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday. I'll take advantage of this line mistake by backing Portland to win and cover in this one as they continue playing superb basketball at home.

The Blazers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in 12 home games this season. They scoring 105.7 points and allowing 89.2 points while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 16.5 points/game. Oklahoma City is one of the top teams in the west, but four of their five losses have come on the road.

The Blazers are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 home games. Portland is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Oklahoma City. The Blazers are 74-47 ATS in their last 121 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic are back on track and on a mission. The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect for their win at Dallas last night. These two factors coupled together provide us with excellent value on the Magic Saturday.

Indiana is 4-16 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Magic Saturday.

20* Knicks/Celtics NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +7

The New York Knicks are showing awesome value Friday as a big road underdog to the Boston Celtics. Boston is getting a lot of love because of their recent play. But the fact of the matter is that the Celtics have had to win six of their last seven just to get to 11-10 on the season. This is still a mediocre team at best.

The Knicks are off to a slow start, but that's why they are showing so much value here. It's only a matter of time before a team with this much talent gets going. After thumping the Detroit Pistons 113-86, the Knicks came back last night and gave the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls all they could handle. The Knicks would lost 102-105, but they're certainly battle-tested coming into this showdown with the Celtics.

New York is a superb 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. division opponents. They are actually outscoring their division foes 101.1 to 97.2 in this spot. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. These three trends make for a 22-1 system backing New York. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Orlando Magic are way overvalued heading into this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers. While Orlando has been one of the most overrated teams in the league this season, the Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated.

Orlando simply cannot be trusted with the Dwight Howard situation and his likely trade looming. That has especially been the case of late as the Magic are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Their one win came at home against the lowly Washington Wizards 109-103.

The Cavaliers are 8-12 SU, but 12-8 ATS. They have been dealt a very tough schedule in the early going with 12 road games compared to 8 home games. Cleveland is 5-7 SU, but 8-4 ATS in road games this season. They are only getting outscored by 3.5 points/game away from home.

Orlando is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a home win against a division rival. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. These three trends make for an 18-1 system going against the Magic. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Heat/76ers NBA Friday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers should not be a home underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. This is simply a display of how the Heat are way overvalued while the 76ers remain undervalued. These are two 16-6 teams and two of the best teams in the East, but I'll sign with the home squad to get it done here.

The 76ers will be out for revenge after a rare loss on the road in their first meeting with Miami earlier this season. Philadelphia has been dominant at home all year. The 76ers are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in home games, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.7 points/game.

Miami has been very beatable on the road this season. The Heat are just 6-4 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.3 points/game. They are giving up a ridiculous 101.5 points/game in road games as their defense has been nearly non-existent. To compare, the 76ers are only giving up 81.3 points/game at home.

The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games, while the 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. These five trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing Philly. Take the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4

The Memphis Grizzlies remain overrated despite playing without their best player, Zach Randolph. It has finally caught up to them as the Grizzlies are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. This team should not be getting this much respect Thursday.

Atlanta continues going under the radar despite being one of the top teams in the league. The Hawks are 16-6 on the season, including 8-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.6 points/game. Memphis is 4-7 on the road, getting outscored by 5.8 points/game.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks. Plus, the Grizzlies are just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Atlanta Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194.5

The total has been set way too high in this game between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. I fully expect a defensive battle tonight. These teams just played on January 22nd in Miami with a 91-82 victory for the Heat and 173 combined points.

Miami and Milwaukee have historically played in some very low-scoring games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series with 190 or less combined points scored in nine of those 10 games. The only exception was a 101-95 overtime victory by Miami on 1/7/2011. That game was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation.

Milwaukee is 13-1 to the UNDER in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 12-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER 194.5 points in this game Wednesday.

15* Bobcats/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Charlotte +13

The Charlotte Bobcats always tend to play the Los Angeles Lakers very tough. At the same time, the Lakers are certainly a team that has played to the level of their competition over the last few years. I look for the Lakers to overlook the Bobcats enough tonight to let Charlotte cover this inflated number.

The Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. In fact, Charlotte has actually won 8 of those 13 meetings outright! The Lakers' largest margin of victory in their five wins has been by 9 points. Two of their wins have come by a single point!

The Lakers haven't beaten the Bobcats by more than 11 points once in 14 meetings since 2005, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with the Bobcats Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league this season, and any time you can get the Thunder at this, they are worth a look.

The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a grueling 109-105 win at Denver last night. Meanwhile, the Thunder come in on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go when thye hit the floor tonight.

The Thunder are 16-3 this season, including a very impressive 8-2 on the road. OKC is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Hornets +2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They are an underdog and shouldn't be tonight. This team has suffered several close losses all season, but they're in line for a victory Sunday.

New Orleans just beat Orlando 93-67 two nights ago in their last game. This is a team that is taking out their frustration from so many close losses! They will not be denied tonight, and look for the Hornets to go on a mini following this victory.

Atlanta is 11-23 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Hornets Sunday.

FREE Pro Bowl Pick: NFC -5.5

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -9

The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the league. Sacramento is 6-13 this season, and they've lost three straight by 33, 12 and 29 points, respectively. I like them to lose by double-digits again tonight against Utah.

The Jazz are 8-3 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points/game on average. They should have no problem winning by 10-plus against the Kings tonight. Sacramento is just 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

This play falls into a system that is 52-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. Roll with the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5

The Knicks are showing awesome value Saturday. They played the Miami Heat very tough last night with Carmelo Anthony, and I fully expect them to beat the Houston Rockets tonight. They actually play as a team without Anthony, so it's not surprising that they are succesful.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. They are actually winning in this spot 113.4 to 107.1 on average. Also, the Knicks are a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Take this 20-0 system straight to the bank. Bet New York Saturday.

20* Knicks/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The New York Knicks are going to be without two starters and two key offensive pieces tonight. Leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (23.6 PPG) and starting PG Baron Davis are both out tonight as they deal with wrist and back injuries, respectively. Points are going to be hard to come by for New York without these two.

Miami is likely going to be without Dwayne Wade once again tonight as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. I expect the Heat to win this game, but it will be because of a great defensive effort against the short-handed Knicks. Miami has had trouble scoring of late, putting up just 91.7 points/game in their last three. But they are stopping opponents with ease, yielding only 90.6 points/game in their last five.

New York was having a hard time scoring even with Anthony. They are putting up just 94.5 points/game on the season. Their defense is improved though, especially on the road. The Knicks are scoring 93.7 points/game and allowing 91.8 points/game in road games for an average combined score of 185.5 points/game. New York is 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season.

New York is 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Knicks and Heat combined for 177 and 181 points in their final two meetings last season, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +16

The Philadelphia 76ers are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but the odds are finally starting to catch up to them. Philly opened 11-2 ATS through their first 13 games as they flew under the radar. The 76ers are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last 5, losing to the Nets 90-97 as an 11-point favorite last time out.

There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have struggled in the early going. The good news is that because of their struggles, the betting public is off of them. This provides us with some excellent line value on the Bobcats going forward, especially tonight as a ridiculous 16-point underdog. They can get blown out and still cover this monster spread.

The Bobcats are 11-1 (92%) ATS in their last 12 road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. They are only losing by 5.1 points/game on average in this spot. The Bobcats are a superb 13-1 (93%) ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are actually winning in this spot by 4.9 points/game. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The Clippers are coming off a grueling 91-96 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They'll be moving at a much slower pace in this one as they play the second of a back-to-back and control the tempo at home.

The Clippers are 6-4 to the UNDER in all home games this season. They are scoring 99.3 points/game and allowing 93.2 points/game for an average combined score of 192.5 points/game. As you can see, that average is slightly below the posted total tonight.

The real value comes in when you look at the numbers Memphis has posted on the road. The Grizzlies are 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season. They are scoring just 85.4 points/game on the road and allowing 91.6 points/game for an average combined score of 177.0 points/game. As you can see, that numbers is 16 points lower than the posted total tonight.

Memphis is 13-1 to the UNDER in their last 14 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. The Clippers are 8-0 to the UNDER in their last 8 home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game. These two trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors are in a great spot tonight. They are highly motivated from three straight losses by a combined 11 points. Plus, they catch Portland on a second of a back-to-back and playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Golden State will be the more rested team tonight, and they'll be able to bring more energy to the floor while also playing with more passion to try and put an end to this recent skid. The Warriors will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Warriors have had the Blazers' numbers in recent years. Golden State has won three straight over Portland. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Warriors, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Golden State.

The Warriors have won the last two meetings in this series by 24 and 21 points, respectively. Portland just hasn't been able to keep up with these young, fresh legs that the Warriors offer. Look for Golden State to run them out of the building tonight. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +12

Sure, the New Jersey Nets are just 5-13 on the season, but a big reason for that is the schedule they have faced thus far. The Nets have played 11 road games compared to 7 home games. According to a source that I use, the Nets have played the second-toughest schedule in the league. New Jersey is clearly undervalued because of this.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been on the opposite end of the spectrum. Philly has opened 12-5 this season while blowing many teams out in the process. But the biggest reason for this is their schedule. According to a source I use, the 76ers have played the third-easiest schedule in the league thus far. They are overvalued right now.

New Jersey just played Chicago on the road last time out. The Bulls are the best team in the league according to a source I use, and the Nets lost to the Bulls by 15 points. New Jersey is now battle-tested and won't be afraid to go into Philly and take on another quality team tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-7 PPG differential), after allowing 85 points or less. Take the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 187.5

I anticipate a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams come in tired after playing last night, so this will be the second of a back-to-back for each squad. Look for the tempo to be slow and the points to be hard to come by against two great half-court defenses.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Memphis' eight road games this season. The Grizzlies are scoring just 85.6 points/game while allowing only 90.9 points/game away from home. That's an average combined score of 176.5 points/game. Portland is only giving up 93.6 points/game in all games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 66-26 (71.7%) to the UNDER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after a close win by 3 points or less. Memphis used up a lot of energy erasing a 16-point deficit in the 4th quarter last night to come back and beat the Warriors 91-90.

Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 12-2 to the UNDER in their last 14 following six or more consecutive wins. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Portland. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Indiana looks to open 6-0 at home for the first time since 2002-03 on Tuesday night when it tries to snap a five-game skid in this series with the Orlando Magic, so payback will be on their minds as well.

Despite having two days of rest since defeating the Lakers 92-80 on Friday, Orlando set franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston last night. While the Pacers have lost their last three at home to the Magic, they have never lost four in a row at home to Orlando.

Indiana (11-4) is off to its best start in eight seasons despite playing only five home games, tied with Cleveland for fewest in the league. The Pacers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. They have won five of their last six overall, including a big road win at the Los Angeles Lakers two days ago.

The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central. Orlando is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Indiana is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight against overrated Memphis. The Warriors are finally back to full strength with the return of Stephen Curry, who scored 12 points Friday after missing the previous eight games with a sprained right ankle.

So the Warriors have had two days off to prepare for the Grizzlies after last playing on Friday. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for Memphis. The Grizzlies are getting a lot of respect right now due to their 6-game winning streak, but five of those wins came against losing teams, and the other was against a Bulls team playing without MVP Derrick Rose.

The home team has won seven straight in this series. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Golden State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +4.5

The Boston Celtics should not be an underdog at home to the Orlando Magic tonight. While Boston has struggled in the early going, this team is still fully capable of beating any team in the league. The Magic are getting way too much respect with this line Monday.

Paul Pierce certainly looked like his old self in a 100-94 win at Washington yesterday. Pierce finished with a season-high 34 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. The Celtics have now won two of their last three to get right back on track.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The Magic are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Orlando is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They made a rare National TV appearance last night on ESPN, and erased a double-digit deficit to come all the way back and beat the Chris Paul-less Los Angeles Clippers. Kevin Love hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Look for the Timberwolves to come out sluggish tonight against the Utah Jazz. Meanwhile, the Jazz will come out motivated following a rare home loss Thursday on National TV to the Dallas Mavericks. Utah is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points/game.

Utah has won three straight home meetings with Minnesota by 15, 8 and 22 points, respectively. The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8

The New Jersey Nets are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. While Oklahoma City owns the best record in the Western Conference at 12-3, they really aren't blowing out opponents. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.5 points/game overall and by 2.2 points/game on the road.

The New Jersey Nets have played much better of late. They have recent wins over both Phoenix and Golden State, and they also played Denver and the L.A. Clippers tough on the road. This team is finally hitting its stride and should show great improvement the rest of the way as Deron Williams and company continue to mesh.

The Nets are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. New Jersey is 13-3 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nets Saturday.

20* Lakers/Magic ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 181.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic should have not problem combining to score more than the posted total tonight. Oddsmakers have simply set the bar too low for a pair of 10-win teams that will light it up offensively tonight. Both squads take good shots as each is hitting 45.5 percent from the field this season.

Orlando is averaging 97.3 points/game while allowing 92.4 points/game this season. That's an average combined score of 189.7 points/game. The Magic like to push the tempo a little bit, and playing at home, they will control the tempo tonight. The Lakers give up 98.8 points/game on the road this season, and they are combining with their opponents to average 190.1 points/game away from home.

This play falls into a system that is 44-16 (73.3%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less.

The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 Friday games. These three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 186

While many teams in this league have struggled offensively because of the lockout, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers have not. Chicago is averaging 95.1 points/game while Cleveland is putting up 96.4 points/game.

Better yet, the Cavaliers are putting up 101.0 points/game at home giving up 98.0 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 199.0 points/game. The Bulls are scoring 97.6 points/game on the road and allowing 94.1 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 191.7 points/game. Given these averages, you can see why there is solid value with this OVER tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 43-14 (75.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - an excellent defensive team (<=88 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7

The Washington Wizards are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Wizards have played much better of late after a very slow start. Washington is coming off a huge 105-102 home win over the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. That victory showed what they are capable of, and I look for the Wizards to come in with a lot of confidence against the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are off to a solid 10-5 start, but they are only outscoring opponents by 5.6 points/game this season, including 4.0 points/game on the road. The Wizards are only getting outscored by 5.1 points/game at home. There is at least a couple points of value with the home underdog tonight.

This is also a huge look-ahead spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Denver plays New York tomorrow. The Nuggets have several players on their team that were in a blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York. These Denver players certainly want revenge on their former team, and will be looking forward to that tomorrow. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. Because they are not a flashy team, the betting public is off of them as they continue to stay out of the media. But this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, and they have been nearly unstoppable at home.

Utah is off to a 9-4 start this season. The Jazz have been red hot of late, going 8-1 in their last nine games overall. Utah is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 98.7 to 89.4 or by an average of 9.3 points/game. Their only home loss came in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Dallas Mavericks are clearly down this season and not nearly as motivated as they were last year when they won the NBA Championship. The Mavs are just 8-7 on the year, including back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams. This is a tough spot for Dallas as it will be the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Mavericks are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The home team is 23-7-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in this series, and Utah is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Dallas. Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +4.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value tonight as a home underdog to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are getting too much respect here as they should not be laying points on the road without their best player. Zach Randolph remains out with a with a knee injury.

It's like night and day for Memphis home and away. The Grizzlies are an impressive 5-2 at home, but they are only 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road. Memphis is only scoring 80.6 points/game and allowing 93.8 points/game while getting outscored by 13.2 points/game away from home.

This is a great revenge spot for the Hornets. New Orleans lost at Memphis 99-108 as a 10.5-point underdog just five days ago, so there's no question that that loss is fresh in their minds. They'll be trying extra hard tonight to get some payback. Plus, this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days, so the Hornets come in rested.

The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Worse yet, the Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. This is an ideal spot to fade Memphis. Take the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5

The Philadelphia 76ers should be laying a bigger number tonight against the Denver Nuggets. Somehow, these 76ers are still going under the radar despite being the most profitable team in the league at the betting window. I'll continue to ride them until the value is no longer there.

Philly is 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS this season, with all three losses coming on the road. The 76ers are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 102.5 points/game and allowing 79.5 points/game while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 23.0 points/game at home.

Denver is a mediocre 3-3 on the road this season. Their road wins have come against Dallas, New Orleans and Milwaukee, so nothing special. The Nuggets are a tired team right now as this will be their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Philly had yesterday off and this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days.

The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Philly. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9.5

It's amazing that there is even a line up for this game considering Derrick Rose (toe) is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. The good news is I like Phoenix whether Rose plays or not. The great news is that if he doesn't play, then getting the Suns at 9.5 is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Rose did not play yesterday in a 86-102 loss at Memphis. This is a very tired Chicago team right now, and even if Rose plays, the rest of their players are going to be worn down. This will be Chicago's 7th game in 9 days, and their 11th game in 15 days. It's clearly their toughest stretch of the season.

Phoenix comes in on solid rest as this will be only their 2nd game in four days. The big reason they are showing such great value is due to their 4-game losing streak. They have failed to cover four straight against the spread, but now is the time to jump on board. You won't find Phoenix showing much better value the rest of the season than they are tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Lakers NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a small home favorite against the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers want this game more than any other game they will play during the regular season. Los Angeles was swept in the second round of the playoffs last year by the Mavericks, and there's no question they want revenge.

While Dallas is riding a five-game winning streak, they have beating up on some very suspect opponents. Their five wins have come against the Hornets, Pistons, Celtics, Bucks and Kings. All five of those teams have losing records and they are a combined 18-42 on the season.

The Lakers are the real deal this year and they are starting to really click under new head coach Mike Brown. L.A. has won five of their last six games overall, and they've been virtually unstoppable at home. The Lakers are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game.

The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Look for Kobe Bryant to go off for 40-plus points for a fifth straight game tonight while leading his team to a win and cover. Bet the Lakers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -8.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps the most underrated team in the league this season. This squad just keeps crushing the opposition, especially at home. The 76ers are so deep that they will really benefit from this lockout-shortened season all year.

Philly is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season, making backers a fortune at the betting window. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home, scoring 104.2 points/game while allowing 79.0 points/game for an average margin of victory over a ridiculous 25.2 points/game. The 76ers have seven players averaging double-digit points.

The Milwaukee Bucks are just 4-7 this season. Milwaukee has yet to win on the road, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away from home. The Bucks are only scoring 87.0 points/game on 39.9 percent shooting on the road. They are allowing 96.9 points/game, so the Bucks are getting outscored by an average of 9.9 points/game away from home.

Philly is 8-0 ATS in home games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. These four trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Philly. Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +11

The New Orleans Hornets should not be catching double-digits against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is not at full strength, thus they shouldn't be this heavily favored. The Grizzlies are still playing without their best player in Zach Randolph, who makes a huge difference for this team.

This play falls into a system that is 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Because the Hornets have hit a rough patch recently, they are now showing the kind of value that's worth backing. Roll with New Orleans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5

Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are laying double-digits, they are overvalued. The Lakers are a good team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but this is a team notorious for playing down to their competition.

The Lakers are a respectable 8-4 this season, but five of their last six wins have come by single-digits. They aren't built for blowing teams out, and they rely way too much on Kobe Bryant to be able to win in blowouts consistently.

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league this year. The Cavs are off to a solid 5-5 start this season, and they are coming off a huge 101-90 road victory over the Phoenix Suns last night. What's most impressive about their 5-5 start is that seven of their first 10 games have come on the road.

The Cavs want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year. Cleveland lost in L.A. 57-112 in a game that symbolized the low point of their season. They would eventually get payback with a 104-99 home victory over the Lakers a little more than a month later, but this team wants real revenge by going into L.A. and coming away with a victory tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Heat/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3.5

The Miami Heat are not about to lose three in a row. After back-to-back overtime losses, I have Miami bouncing back in a big way tonight in Denver. Look for the Heat to be more motivated for this game than any other so for this season. This team is very dangerous when they play with a chip on their shoulder.

Denver is not a good defensive team, and they have no chance containing Lebron, Wade and Bosh in this one. The Heat lead the league in scoring at 106.6 points/game while connecting on a ridiculous 48.8 percent of their shots. This is simply not a good match-up for the Nuggets.

This play falls into a system that is 87-41 (68%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites (MIAMI) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=43% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.

The Heat are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet Miami Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 194

The Spurs and Blazers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly by setting the bar way too high in this one. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as all signs points toward a low-scoring affair.

Just looking at Portland's road numbers, it's easy to see why I'm siding with the UNDER tonight. The Blazers are scoring 89.3 points/game on the road and allowing 96.0 points/game for an average combined score of 185.3 points/game. Scoring won't get any easier for Portland tonight as they're up against a San Antonio team that gives up just 91.3 points/game at home.

The biggest reason for this play is recent head-to-head games between these teams. The Blazers and Spurs have combined to score 194 or less points in 10 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have no business being a favorite at New Orleans tonight. While Minnesota has received a lot of hype from Ricky Rubio and company, they simply have not lived up to expectations. At the same time, the Hornets are a better team than they get credit for even with the loss of Chris Paul.

Minnesota is just 3-7 this season, which includes road losses at Toronto and Milwaukee. This is a team that was supposed to be improved with the additions or Rubio and Derrick Williams among others, but they simply have not clicked in the early going. It's going to take some time for this team to gel.

New Orleans is also 3-7, but they have played an absolute brutal schedule. Their last five games have come against Denver twice, Philly, Dallas and Oklahoma City. This team is battle-tested and will be looking forward to a "break" tonight with the lowly Timberwolves coming to town.

The Timberwolves are 5-24 ATS in their last 29 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Hornets Friday.