Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-23 | Cavs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out. Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back. They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites. This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out. They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight. Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer. The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs. Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright. Bet the Thunder Wednesday. |
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11-08-23 | Eastern Michigan +19 v. Toledo | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19 Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record. The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span. Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites. As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire. Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites. They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game. They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone. They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too. Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division. They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton. I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out. That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo. They have three extra days than the Rockets do. The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games. I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive. Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer. Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread. Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan. Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss. Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers. Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game. Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday. |
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11-08-23 | Jazz v. Pacers OVER 241 | Top | 118-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pacers OVER 241 Both the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz are dead nuts OVER teams and matched up tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the season. The Pacers are 6-1 OVER in their seven games this season while the Jazz are 6-2 OVER in their eight games. The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Jazz rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency. The Jazz rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 26th. The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 238 points in each of their last three meetings, and they are even more OVER teams this season. Indiana is 15-2 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game. Utah is 54-34 OVER in its last 88 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-08-23 | Florida Atlantic -6 v. Loyola-Chicago | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6 The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four. Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG). It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump. Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play. No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma. Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind. Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games. Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday. |
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11-07-23 | North Dakota v. Iowa -19.5 | 68-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5 The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home. The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games. They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall. Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more. Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota. Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach. North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023. Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft. They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core. The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele. Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline. Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023. Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season. Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds. Bet Iowa Tuesday. |
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11-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3 Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan. They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st. I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home. That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win. The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games. They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites. They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch. Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now. They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite. They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior. They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior. They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs. They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites. They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity. Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game. They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense. Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well. The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry. They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt. WMU has played six road games and only three home games. They are 2-1 at home this season. CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table. It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday. |
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11-06-23 | USC -2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5 USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year. They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points. Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score. 7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State. They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart. Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year. Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year. The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season. But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year. This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena. Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Monday. |
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11-06-23 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | 116-134 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5 A couple key injuries to both teams has me backing the UNDER between the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets tonight. The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) who has been playing well and started each of the first six games for the Pelicans. Their offense isn't going to run near as smoothly without him. The key to the Nuggets success over the last several season has been Nikola Jokic paired with Jamaal Murray. They just haven't been nearly as good when Murray has been sidelined, especially offensively. Well, they will be without Murray (16.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) tonight with a quad injury. The Pelicans and Nuggets have combined for 195 and 197 points in two of their last three meetings. They have combined for 221 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 13 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 54 m | Show |
20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5 The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week. I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored. Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value. What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City. They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs. They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs. If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers. What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall. They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go. They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve. They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits. The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game. They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score. They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game. When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost. They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami. As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys. I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one. They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of. The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat. Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%. Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play. Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now. The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears. Bet the Jets Monday. |
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11-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 219 | 97-122 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 219 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Rockets and Kings. The Rockets won the first meeting 107-89 for just 196 combined points with a total of 220.5. Now the total is 219 in the rematch, and they haven't adjusted it down low enough. The Kings are really struggling offensively since losing their best player in PG De'Aaron Fox to injury. They managed just 101 points on 40.9% shooting against the Warriors and 89 points on 38.1% shooting against the Rockets. They are really lost without him and forced to play a different game, slowing it down and relying more on defense. The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 28th in pace this season and 22nd in offensive efficiency. They are scoring just 107.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting this season. Houston is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog. The Rockets are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games as a home dog of 6 points or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-06-23 | Mavs v. Magic -115 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -115 The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued right now due to a 5-1 start this season against a very soft schedule. Their five wins have come against the Spurs, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hornets with four of them coming by single-digits. Their lone step up in class game they lost by 11 at Denver. This is also a very tough spot for the Mavericks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in four days. Luka Doncic played 36 minutes and Kyrie Irving 34 in an unimpressive 124-118 win over Charlottte as 11.5-point favorites last night. The Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and nearly pulled the upset. Now they must travel to Orlando overnight and play a Magic team that I believe is the most underrated in the NBA this season. The Magic are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games this season with their two losses both coming on the road to the Clippers and the Lakers (by 3). The loss to the Clippers was the 2nd of a back-to-back. They avenged that loss to the Lakers by beating them by 19 at home in the rematch last time out. The Magic rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Mavericks rank 22nd. Poor defense is going to hurt the Magic all season, while the Magic will be a team you can rely on because they play defense consistently. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday. |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 218.5 | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 218.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The Grizzlies and Blazers will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days Sunday in Portland. The first game on Friday went to OT but was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for just 204 combined points. There's clearly value on the UNDER 218.5 in the rematch, and I think we cash this with ease barring OT. The Blazers are going to be without their two young, talented guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons again tonight. They were already struggling offensively with these two, and it's only going to get worse without them. The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6 this season and struggling offensively without JA Morant and four other key players right now. They rank dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season. The Blazers are 28th in offensive efficiency, so these are the two of the three worst offensive teams in the NBA in the early going. Portland also ranks 25th in pace and will slow it down playing at home, especially without both Henderson and Simons. Familiarity will also force these teams to play at a slower pace because the defenses know what to expect now, which makes it tougher sledding for the offenses to try and get the ball in the positions they want to. The Blazers are 26-14 UNDER in their last 40 games as home underdogs. The UNDER is 6-3 in the their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies and would be 7-2 if not for OT. Memphis is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. The UNDER is 11-3 in Grizzlies last 14 road games following two or more consecutive losses. Memphis is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 48 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 16 m | Show |
20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48 The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London. The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards. But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville. After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense. The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week. Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him. He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games. The offense is basically fully healthy right now. Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out. Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense. I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one. This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year. And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week. The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season. They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win. They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win. They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%. The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities. They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season. The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Warriors v. Cavs -120 | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland ML -120 The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight buzzer-beater wins over the Kings (by 1) and Thunder (by 2). But the Kings were without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and the Thunder were without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I think this is a letdown spot for the Warriors off those two wins, and now they face a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team on the road tonight. The Cavaliers finally got Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland back from injury. Now we're going to see what this team is capable of after a shaky 2-4 start that is allowing us to 'buy low' on them tonight. I look for their best effort here with the Warriors coming to town Sunday night. And we'll 'sell high' on the Warriors following five consecutive victories. Golden State is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Giants v. Raiders OVER 37 | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37 The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games. The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games. This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week. There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week. The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM. They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way. He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers. I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard. O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior. He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play. On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week. He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances. The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload. This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season. This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week. The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week. Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense. New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen. They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him. I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses. That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks. I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense. The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total. But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total. They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami. This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER. The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2 I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning. They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip. The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate. We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game. The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play. I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs. The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week. They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots. I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season. But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them. The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles. This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs. I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced. They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy. The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable. Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB. This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in. So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville. The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken. They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season. They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce. The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory. The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games. They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense. There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday. |
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11-04-23 | Jazz +8.5 v. Wolves | 95-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5 The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic. That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game. This team is trending in the right direction. Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season. They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win. I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points. Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season. The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs. Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games. The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs. Bet the Jazz Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Miami-FL v. NC State +4.5 | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 4 m | Show | |
15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5 The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now. They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night. We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright. Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did. They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid. They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs. They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season. And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week. They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards. NC State has played very well at home of late. They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week. They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here. Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas. NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites. They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games. Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami. Bet NC State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Washington -3 v. USC | 52-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3 USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game. They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame. The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame. They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory. Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs. We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford. But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior. No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week. Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night. Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup. The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play. The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game. Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here. USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week. The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense. The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively. Bet Washington Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Lakers v. Magic +4 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4 The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago. Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment. I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss. The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight. They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses. While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week. That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series. The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight. Bet the Magic Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 58 m | Show |
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1 The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma. They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road. The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now. This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night. The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season. They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3. They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting. They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation. The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas. They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997. It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984. It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season. This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks. The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas. They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion. Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper. The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers. There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses. Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't. The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed. Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed. Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games. They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close. They allowed 661 yards to Texas. And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys. Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more. Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008. Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992. Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Utah State -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 32-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5 Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season. But these records are now created equal. Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5. When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason. Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch. It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football. They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers. And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force. Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did. They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively. I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams. Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team. The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play. San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play. The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game. The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade. They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season. Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground. Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021. The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team. They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score. They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada. Bet Utah State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Illinois v. Minnesota -125 | 27-26 | Loss | -125 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125 The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now. They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers. They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards. They certainly won't let down against Illinois here. Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season. They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now. Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road. Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season. That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17. The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game. That team is going to be Minnesota. The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game. Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game. The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season. Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Missouri +16 v. Georgia | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 95 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16 The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division. Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs. The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs. The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week. That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs. We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs. They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down. That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season. They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17. They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition. Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them. Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season. They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing. They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road. They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now. The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS. This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target. Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD. Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia. The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins. Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Missouri Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Virginia Tech +10 v. Louisville | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10 Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards. The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles. The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards. And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards. That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday. The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback. Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies. Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores. His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic. The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point. Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be. Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame. Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well. This one will go down to the wire. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Arizona State +11 v. Utah | Top | 3-55 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 46 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11 I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition. The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games. The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington. They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead. They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead. No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did. He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game. I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars. And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record. But this is a play against Utah as much as anything. The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles. Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week. That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained. Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much. Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards. Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards. UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards. Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense. They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play. Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record. Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games. They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon. This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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11-04-23 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss -3 | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 91 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3 Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West. The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today. Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention. They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week. And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either. After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games. They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season. Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home. They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest. Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury. Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country. Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation. Bet Ole Miss Saturday. |
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11-03-23 | Wizards +9.5 v. Heat | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5 The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year. They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA. But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals. Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami. That is playing out in the early going again this season. The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason. The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites. They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee. They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets. I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us. The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks. They also beat Memphis at home. They can hang with the Heat tonight. Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less. Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well. Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Bet the Wizards Friday. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +125 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-10 | Win | 125 | 97 h 22 m | Show |
20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125 These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet. Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night. Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road. They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games. They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech. The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats. They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season. Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility. The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field. He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry. He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play. Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles. To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles. They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards. That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC. Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday. |
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11-03-23 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season only behind the Washington Wizards. They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. They just lost 155-104 to the Celtics for 259 combined points, the second time in four games they have gone for 259-plus. The Cleveland Cavaliers have more shooters than they did last season with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang. They also take a hit defensively with these additions. But they are shooting more 3-pointers and are more of an OVER team than last season because of it. Indiana beat Cleveland 125-113 for 238 combined points earlier this season in a game that the Cavaliers rested Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 225 points in five of their last six meetings, so this total is definitely a little short to say the least. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-02-23 | Magic +1 v. Jazz | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1 This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic. They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days. Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA. Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz. They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy. The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory. The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight. The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games. The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer. Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games. Bet the Magic Thursday. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3 Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal. This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams. The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week. They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy. The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback. It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week. They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons. Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center. I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh. However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points. The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play. The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record. The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in. The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable. Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game. They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion. QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement. Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury. The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston. They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype. This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more. The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play. They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season. Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well. The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season. They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Titans Thursday. |
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11-02-23 | South Alabama v. Troy -5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5 The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now. Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season. The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games. They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards. They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards. They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards. They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards. And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites. The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play. Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins. South Alabama is down this season. They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites. QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week. Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game. He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season. Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games. South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt. The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play. Bet Troy Thursday. |
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11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 73 h 45 m | Show |
20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3 Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team. We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock. Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards. The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards. They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games. But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence. Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong. They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center. TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State. They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week. Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good. He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio. Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry. This TCU defense isn't very good. They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense. They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244. The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship. They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation. After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention. Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss. The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game. Bet Texas Tech Thursday. |
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11-01-23 | Clippers +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest. I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit. The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers. It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night. But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here. This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything. The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight. Bet the Clippers Wednesday. |
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11-01-23 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 211.5 | 95-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Knicks UNDER 211.5 Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. Cleveland and New York will be facing off for a 2nd consecutive day. This is also a rematch from the playoffs last year, so familiarity is at an all-time high here between these teams. Low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams get together. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 201 or fewer combined points in all six meetings. Given that fact, this total of 211.5 is too high tonight. These teams combined for 200 points last night and it should be more of the same tonight. The Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries to scorers in Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, plus Donovan Mitchell isn't 100% as he has been battling a hamstring injury in the early going. The Knicks are fully healthy and a very good defensive team when that's the case. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-01-23 | Bucks -4.5 v. Raptors | 111-130 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel. Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward. The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable. The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency. They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA. The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in. That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA. This will be their toughest test yet. Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite. Bet the Bucks Wednesday. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5 Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27. That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami. Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country. The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense. They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green. The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game. Ball State has some really concerning losses of late. They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern. They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country. They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country. Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home. Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game. Bet Bowling Green Wednesday. |
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10-31-23 | Spurs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5 The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season. But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out. Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns. Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games. It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant. They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight. Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Spurs Tuesday. |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Rangers/Diamondbacks MLB ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -105 Game 4 is going to be a bullpen game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers. I'll gladly side with the team with the much better bullpen, which is the Diamondbacks in Game 4. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Rangers. He allowed 3 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning in his last postseason start against Houston. Once he exits, the Rangers will be going to their bullpen, which has a 4.66 ERA on the season. Joe Mantiply started against the Phillies last series and pitched one shutout inning in a 6-5 win for the Diamondbacks. Arizona has great arms available at the back of their bullpen to preserve a lead. They have a 3.71 ERA at home this season. Bet the Diamondbacks in Game 4 Tuesday. |
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10-31-23 | Buffalo +16 v. Toledo | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16 Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record. The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span. Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites. As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo. Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late. The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites. Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC. Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season. They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf. Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season. Bet Buffalo Tuesday. |
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10-30-23 | Magic +110 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +110 The Los Angeles Lakers are in a terrible spot tonight. They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after going to OT and losing 127-132 at Sacramento last night. Four starters played at least 39 minutes for the Lakers. LeBron James is supposed to be on a minutes restriction, so don't be surprised if the Lakers sit him tonight. The Lakers won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who are one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season because they have a lot of chemistry with pretty much everyone back from a team that was a ATS machine in the 2nd half of the season last year. The Magic are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off. The Magic have been impressive to start this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while beating Houston 116-86 as 4.5-point home favorites and Portland 102-97 as 3.5-point road favorites. The Lakers are an overvalued commodity in the early going at 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS. Orlando is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 152 h 6 m | Show |
20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8 This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week. You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season. Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier. But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed. Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense. Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track. They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season. They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory. The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse. The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week. They are held to 235 total yards in defeat. Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week. This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment. The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry. They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry. That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit. The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games. They will get back on track offensively this week. The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line. K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more. The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Lions Monday. |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3.5 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time. They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down. They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks. While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two. The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four. Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season. Bet the Pelicans Monday. |
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10-30-23 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5 The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal. They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory. There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter. They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back. Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year. They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game. The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed. They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year. They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks. The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit. They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota. They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders. They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love. Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury. This is a team I want to fade early in the season. Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Monday. |
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10-30-23 | Bulls v. Pacers -2.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5 The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season. They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner. They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks. The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites. There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight. The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games. The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT. The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit. This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes. There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired. Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season. The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss. Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days. Bet the Pacers Monday. |
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10-29-23 | Lakers v. Kings -2.5 | 127-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5 Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount. The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener. They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early. The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year. They brought back all five starters. They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener. Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out. They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%. The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do. The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more. The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss. Bet the Kings Sunday. |
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10-29-23 | Ravens -7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 164 h 60 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5 Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5. I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals. That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week. So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football. The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now. They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week. The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league. Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers. But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona. I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits. They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle. They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout. Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games. Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt. They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him. Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him. He isn't handling it very well. Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL. They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week. They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now. The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks. They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future. The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst. The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result. Bet the Ravens Sunday. |
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10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -130 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 164 h 39 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130 The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games. I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final. They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play. The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling. While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite. I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning. The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead. Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play. Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland. The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown. I think their luck runs out this week. The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one. Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries. It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play. Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment. The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals. But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week. Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state. That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites. The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-29-23 | Nuggets v. Thunder +4.5 | 128-95 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year. The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season. They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix. This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace. They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs. Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA. You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday. I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season. They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites. Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries. This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far. The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less. The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets. Bet the Thunder Sunday. |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts -116 | 38-27 | Loss | -116 | 156 h 28 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116 The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play. That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns. Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week. The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards. They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play. Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly. Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland. The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone. It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown. What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week. Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense. He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career. Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz. Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns. Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week. I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back. I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone. That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks. They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable. They get in the red zone and bog down. They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%. The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints. You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. They aren't on the same page right now. You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars. It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense. They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara. The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season. The are so predictable. They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses. The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule. But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans. They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints. Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael. Bet the Colts Sunday. |
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10-28-23 | UNLV +7.5 v. Fresno State | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 58 m | Show | |
15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5 UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West. There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State. I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here. Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback. Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week. Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here. Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less. The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada. They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV. QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype. He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry. UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time. This one will be decided by one score either way, too. Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet UNLV Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Washington State v. Arizona State +6 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6 I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition. The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games. The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington. They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead. They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead. No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did. He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt. Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game. It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far. I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle. Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in. The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football. That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks. This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt. Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so. Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages. I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here. Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss. Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 9-1 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
15* DBacks/Rangers MLB Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 9 The Texas Rangers are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall. However, this total has now been inflated due to that streak and due to combining for 11 runs with Arizona in extra innings in Game 1 last night. Now the true aces of both these teams go tonight and scoring will be suppressed in Game 2. Jordan Montgomery is 12-11 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 36 starts this season. Montgomery held Houston to 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two starts against them last series. He faced the Diamondbacks earlier this season on August 21st and pitched 8 shutout innings in a 4-3 victory. Merrill Kelly is 14-9 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 33 starts this season. Kelly has been dominant in his last six starts, allowing just 9 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings for a 2.27 ERA. This despite facing the Phillies twice, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Giants. Kelly allowed just one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of a 4-1 victory in his lone career start against Texas. Kelly is 12-1 UNDER in his last 13 starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5 runs. Arizona is 15-3 UNDER following a loss by one run this season. The UNDER is 14-6 in Montgomery's 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record this season. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Old Dominion +20.5 v. James Madison | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 92 h 29 m | Show |
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5 James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program. That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score. Another win came by 11 points. Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much. Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record. The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season. The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs. Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week. The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend. Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison. The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here. Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better. Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Old Dominion Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Bulls v. Pistons +2.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +2.5 The Detroit Pistons are grossly undervalued to open the season. They only had Cade Cunningham for the first 12 games last season. Cunningham is back and paired with Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, and this team has a lot of chemistry as they bring back mostly all the same guys and have a ton of depth. That has shown in their first two games this season as they nearly upset Miami in a 102-103 loss as 9.5-point road dogs. Then they upset Charlotte 111-99 as 4.5-point dogs last night. Their depth will help them a lot in these back-to-back situations, and they won't have any problem coming up with the energy tonight in their home opener in front of some excited Detroit fans ready to see this team. The spot is much worse for the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They needed OT to beat Toronto 104-103 as 2.5-point home favorites last night. DeRozan played 41 minutes, Vucevic 40 minutes, White 40 minutes and LaVine 38 minutes last night. Now LaVine has a back injury and is questionable. The Bulls don't have near the depth that the Pistons do. Chicago has been overvalued as well losing by 20 at home to the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites and then barely beating a rebuilding Toronto team as short home favorites. They should not be favored on the road here against the upstart Pistons. Bet the Pistons Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Troy -4.5 v. Texas State | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5 The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now. Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season. The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games. They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards. They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards. They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards. Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards. Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country. Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe. They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe. This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record. Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play. Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th. Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses. Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play. Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game. Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more. Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards. The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week. |
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10-28-23 | Arkansas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 56.5 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 29 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5 My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. These are two of the worst defenses in the country. Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed. Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game. I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense. When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued. Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss. The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out. This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check. Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total. This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games. Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense. Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58. Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points. The books have once again set this total too low. Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks. Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Pittsburgh +21 v. Notre Dame | 7-58 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 0 m | Show | |
15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21 The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans. But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers. Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense. Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much. After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame. He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC. Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt. While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent. Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville. Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards. The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week. The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games. Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest. He has given this previously dead offense some new life. Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play. Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run. They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 88 h 60 m | Show |
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19 Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate. The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland. They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers. With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here. At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year. Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites. They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game. And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers. They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech. Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score. Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win. That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history. Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game. The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. Bet Virginia Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Duke v. Louisville -4 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 88 h 60 m | Show |
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4 I love the spot for Louisville this week. They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye. You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot. Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week. They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt. It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter. Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0. They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title. The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play. The spot is much worse for Duke. The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score. They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles. QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late. He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one. Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Bet Louisville Saturday. |
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10-28-23 | Memphis v. North Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 87 h 29 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5 The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well. They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points. Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less. It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most. North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road. They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout. That gives these teams a common opponent. Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards. And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road. I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB. That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards. But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference. North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs. North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss. North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game. Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here. Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win. North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games. Bet North Texas Saturday. |
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10-27-23 | Warriors v. Kings -3 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3 I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry. The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs. They returned all five starters. Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it. They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury. He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively. Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders. Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. Bet the Kings Friday. |
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10-27-23 | Magic -2.5 v. Blazers | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5 I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry. That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces. That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus. They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner. They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles. The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home. Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th. The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard. They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces. It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle. Bet the Magic Friday. |
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10-27-23 | Thunder v. Cavs OVER 227 | 108-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Cavaliers OVER 227 The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team. They have a very fast-paced, efficient offense and a ton of chemistry with one of the best young nucleus' in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and returned four starters plus a healthy Chet Holmgren at center. They are going to be tough to tame, and they beat the Bulls 124-104 in the opener. The Cavaliers are going to be more of an OVER team this year because they added shooters and will attempt more 3's with a change in philosophy. They also are without C Jarrett Allen in the early going, who is their defensive stopper. They take a big hit defensively without him. The Cavs beat the Nets 114-113 on the road in their opener. They went 17-of-43 (39.5%) from 3-point range. They added two great shooters in Max Strus from the Heat and Georges Niang from the 76ers. These two combined to go 7-of-16 from 3-point range in that contest. Both aren't very good defenders, so that is going to be an issue for them defensively that they will have to deal with. They allowed the Nets to shoot 50% from the field and now take a big step up in class here against the Thunder. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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10-27-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA. They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year. The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season. They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix. This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace. They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago in the opener. Now they take on a Cleveland Cavaliers team with injury problems in the early going. The Cavaliers are without C Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them defensively. They could also be without PG Darius Garland, who is nursing a hamstring injury. They should not be 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder without these two. They escaped with a 114-113 win at Brooklyn in the opener, but won't be as fortunate tonight as they take a big step up in class against OKC. Bet the Thunder Friday. |
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10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +4.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 20 m | Show |
20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5 I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country. His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him. The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition. They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU. Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated. They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards. They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough. Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for. Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida. Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA. The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall. It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense. It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Charlotte Friday. |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5 The Phoenix Suns are going to be without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal tonight. They can't afford to lose these two, especially Booker, with their lack of depth and talent. They're relying on Kevin Durant and a bunch of replacement-level players tonight. Booker went 13-of-21 for 32 points and 8 assists to lead the Suns to a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State on opening night. The rest of the Suns went 29-of-74 (39.2%) from the field in that game, so he is going to be desperately missed. The Lakers should fire back here after giving the Denver Nuggets a run for their money on the road only to fall short in the 4th quarter. They are back home here where they have been dominant dating back to the end of last season. The Lakers are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 home games. I love the additions of Vincent, Prince, Reddish and Wood to go along with all five returning starters for the Lakers, though Jared Vanderbilt remains out in the early going. Their great depth plus the lack of depth for the Suns right now will be the key to them winning this one handily. The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Suns. Bet the Lakers Thursday. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43 The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White. They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable. Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago. The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London. They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line. And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills. Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense. The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field. Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin. Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here. The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses. They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week. They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable. What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in. The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away. The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%. Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace. The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds. This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year. Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers. Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2.5 These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet. Virginia Tech is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Virginia Tech needs to be more than a 2.5-point home favorite over Syracuse Thursday night. Virginia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards. The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles. And last time out the Hokies crushed Wake Forest 30-13 and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards. Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road. They have stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces. They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina and 41-3 at Florida State. The Orange were outscored a combined 112-24 in those three defeats. That 38-point loss at Florida State gives these teams a recent common opponent to compare where they're at right now. The Orange were outgained 537 to 261, or by 276 total yards while VT only lost by 22 and were outgained by 139 yards. The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback. Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies. Drones is completing 58% of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 344 yards and 4 scores. His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic. Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. Dino Babers is 1-9 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of consecutive games as the coach of Syracuse. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday. |
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10-25-23 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5 | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 227.5 JA Morant has to serve a 25-game suspension to start the season. The Memphis Grizzlies are going to have to rely on defense in the early going to be competitive. That's why they traded for Marcus Smart, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA who can mask some of the defensive deficiencies of Morant when he returns. But they gave up great backup Tyus Jones and two first-round picks to get the former Defensive Player of the Year. The Grizzlies have been a Top 5 defense each of the last two seasons. They were No. 3 in defensive rating last season despite the injuries and suspensions. They hang their hat on defense. Starters Ziaire Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman Sr. are all plus defenders. Desmond Bane is their only real scorer, but most his points come off the ball spotting up. Scoring is going to be tough for this team in the early going. The Pelicans have a great starting 5 of McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, Valanciunas and Jones. But they will be without key bench players Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall to start the season. That means the bench will consist of Cody Zeller, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels to start the season. The Pelicans are going to struggle to score for long stretches when their starters are out. New Orleans is 41-25 UNDER in its last 66 games as a road underdog, including 27-11 UNDER in its last 38 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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10-25-23 | Pistons +9 v. Heat | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9 A shin injury ended Cade Cunningham's season after 12 games last year and pretty much ended their season. He comes back healthy this season, and he and Jaden Ivey form one of the most underrated backcourt duos in the NBA. I think the Pistons come into the season undervalued as a result. They have great depth with Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman coming off the bench. The Miami Heat were terrible in the regular season last year and barely made the playoffs, needing the play-in round to get through. They would go on a crazy run to the NBA Finals behind Jimmy Butler's heroics. But regular season Jimmy is much different than playoff Jimmy. I think there will be a hangover effect early in the season for the Heat after coming up just short, losing to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals. It was a tough offseason for the Heat, who struck out on Damian Lillard and watched key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus go elsewhere. They will get Tyler Herro back from a broken wrist, but depth is going to be an issue, especially with Josh Richardson out to start the season. They are going to be relying on Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant , Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Nikoa Jovic. This is one of the worst benches in the NBA, plus starting PG Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger and declining rapidly. Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games as a favorite. The Heat are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points. Bet the Pistons Wednesday. |
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10-25-23 | Hawks v. Hornets OVER 234.5 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 234.5 The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt. These two should gel much better than they did last year when Quin Snyder took over midseason. Now Snyder has an entire offseason to get things right after a middling 41-41 season a year ago. The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when LaMelo Ball is on the court. He averaged 23.3 points, 8.4 assists and 6.4 rebounds last season but played in just 36 games. Terry Rozier, PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward can all fill it up as well, plus they used the 2nd pick in the draft on scorer Brandon Miller out of Alabama. Head coach Steve Clifford said they spent a lot more time on offense than defense the past few weeks. In four meetings last season, the Hornets and Hawks combined for 282, 240, 235 and 231 points. They have combined for at least 235 points in four of their last five meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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10-25-23 | Wizards v. Pacers OVER 234.5 | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers OVER 234.5 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle, who is a great offensive mind but chooses offense over defense everywhere he has gone. The Pacers are loaded from an offensive standpoint with Tyrese Haliburton teaming with Bennedict Mathurin in the backcourt. They added Denver 6th man Bruce Brown who will start right away. They also added Obi Toppin from the Knicks to pair with Myles Turner in the frontcourt. One of the best shooters in the NBA in Buddy Hield comes off the bench. The Washington Wizards are all offense and no defense. They added PG Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and SG Jordan Poole from the Wizards, who are both terrible defenders. They still have Kyle Kuzma, one of the worst defenders in the league but a good scorer. SF Bilal Coulibaly will start right away and be paired with Daniel Gafford in the frontcourt. They have shooters who can stretch the floor coming off the bench in Mike Muscala, Danilo Gallinari, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert. This is going to be a fun team to watch offensively, but probably the worst defensive team in the entire NBA. The Wizards and Pacers went for 240, 232 and 244 combined points in their final three meetings last season. It should be more of the same here in the opener as we see one of the highest scoring games of the night. Carlisle is 50-32 OVER in home games as the coach of Indiana. The OVER is 34-18 in Pacers last 52 home games with a total of 230 or higher. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State v. Florida International +8 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
20* Jacksonville State/FIU C-USA No-Brainer on Florida International +8 The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are in their first season as an FBS team making the move from the FCS. They just accomplished a huge feat getting to 6-2 with a 20-17 upset win over Western Kentucky last week to get bowl eligible. Now, I think the Gamecocks are in a huge letdown spot after accomplishing that feat and will be flat as a pancake Wednesday night against Florida International. This is a very tough spot for the Gamecocks because of the letdown spot, plus the fact that they are a very tired team playing their 6th game in 33 days. They have had a ton of midweek games this year to throw off their schedule, especially of late. Meanwhile, Florida International will be playing just its 4th game in 32 days, a huge rest advantage for the home team. Florida International sits at 4-4 this season and in need of a win here if they want to get bowl eligible themselves. The Panthers have the big motivational and rest advantages that justify a play on them catching 8 points at home here. Bet Florida International Wednesday. |
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10-24-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -160 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Phillies -160 The Philadelphia Phillies just lost at home in the playoffs for the first time all postseason. I expect them to right the ship and win Game 7 here at home against a rookie starter in Brandon Pfaadt for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pfaadt is 3-9 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 21 starts thsi season. He has been fortunate to start at home in his last two postseason starts. But in his lone postseason start on the road, he allowed 3 runs and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings to the Brewers. Pfaadt won't be able to handle the pressure of trying to win a Game 7 on the road. I trust Ranger Suarez to get the job done here for the Phillies. He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three starts this postseason, allowing just one earned run and 9 base runners in 14 innings to the Braves (twice) and Diamondbacks. Suarez has pitched 12 1/3 shutout innings while allowing just 10 base runners with 14 K's in his last two starts against Arizona this season. The Phillies are 8-1 in Suarez's nine playoff starts over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 9-0 in Suarez's last nine home starts vs. a NL team with a .255 batting average or worse in the second half of the season. Bet the Phillies in Game 7 Tuesday. |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +6 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Nuggets 2023 NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles +6 The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs last year. But all four games went down to the wire with three decided by 6 points or less, including both meetings in Denver. The Lakers will be out for revenge on the Nuggets, and I like their chances of staying within this inflated number. There's usually a championship hangover early in the season for teams that win the NBA Finals. They just don't come back as motivated to start the next season, and it's very tough to repeat. I think the Nuggets will be going through the motions early in the season. "If anybody is still talking about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them." said Denver head coach Michael Malone in June. "The've gone fishing. We're still playing.". The comment angered LeBron James and Anthony Davis. "It was just a lot of talking," Davis said on media day earlier this month. "We get it, y'all won, but me and Bron had some conversations. We can't wait to play them." "I go play every game the way I'm going to pgo play the first game against them," Lakers guard Austin Reaves said. "But I think it adds a little bit of motivation to go play really well." The Nuggets lost key 6th man Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. The Lakers added Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince to a very experienced roster. I like the moves the Lakers made to get better, and I think the Nuggets are down a notch from last year after losing Brown especially. Bet the Lakers Tuesday. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
15* New Mexico State/LA Tech C-USA ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico State +2.5 New Mexico State has aspirations of getting bowl eligible with a win tonight. They also are very much alive in the Conference USA title race. They have a bye one deck, so they will be 'all in' to get this win tonight and get bowl eligible. Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,801 yards with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio. Pavia also leads the Aggies in rushing with 525 yards and 4 TD on 5.8 per carry. From October-on last year, he had the best QBR of any QB in the country. He is doing the same from October-on this year. This New Mexico State defense is also underrated. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being to Liberty, which is 7-0 and the best team in the conference. I think they can shut town this LA Tech offense that has put up 24 or fewer points in five of eight games this year. They topped that number against Northwestern State, North Texas and WKU only because of garbage time after falling behind 35-7 early. LA Tech has allowed 28 or more points in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs have a terrible defense and have gone 1-4 in their last five games with their lone win against a broken UTEP team that New Mexico State just blasted 28-7 last week. LA Tech was actually outgained by UTEP in that contest. The Aggies are going to have a big advantage on the ground in this one. They rush for 202 yards per game and 6.1 per carry as a team. LA Tech allows 199 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games. The Aggies are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Jerry Kill is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a losing record as a head coach. Bet New Mexico State Tuesday. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings +7 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
20* 49ers/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +7 The Minnesota Vikings are kings of playing on one-score games. Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have played in one-score games in 20 of 24 games. All six of their games this season have been decided by a single score. Given that fact, getting +7 on the Vikings at home here is a nice value. The 49ers have some injuries they are dealing with right now that won't have them at full strength, and as a result they won't be hitting on all cylinders. Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey all got hurt against the Browns last week and were knocked out of the game. The 49ers lost that game and Brock Purdy had by far his worst game of the season. Purdy went 12-of-27 passing for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Browns last week. Both Samuel and Williams will miss this game, which are two huge blows to this offense. McCaffrey is expected to play through an oblique injury, but he'll likely be on a pitch count and there's no assurance he will make it through the entire game. The Vikings saved their season last week by going on the road and beating the Bears 19-13. This came a week after they nearly upset the Chiefs at home, holding Kansas City to 333 total yards in a 27-20 defeat. They were only outgained by 4 yards by the Chiefs and didn't have Justin Jefferson for the majority of that game. If they can hang with the Chiefs, they can hang with the 49ers. Brian Flores is doing a good job at defensive coordinator making the right adjustments after a poor start to the season. He was too blitz-happy early in the season and has toned it down a lot of late. The Vikings have held their last three opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Their defense can keep them in this game, and Kirk Cousins and company have another week to get the chemistry right without Jefferson as he gels with Addison, Hockenson and Osborn. Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season. Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Bet the Vikings Monday. |
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10-23-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -170 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
20* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -170 The Phillies are up 3-2 in this series over the Arizona Diamondbacks while outscoring them 27-12 in the process. Both losses came by a single run, while the three wins came by a combined 17 runs. The Phillies have only lost three times all postseason with all three losses coming by one run. All eight wins have come by two runs or more as they are outscoring opponents 5.3 to 2.0 on average. The Phillies have another big advantage on the mound in Game 6 and I expect them to close out this series. Aaron Nola is 9-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 17 home starts this season. Nola is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in three postseason starts. He pitched 6 shutout innings in a 10-0 victory over the Phillies in Game 2. Merrill Kelly has been at his worst on ther oad this season with a 3.94 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 17 starts away from home. Kelly is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against Philadelphia, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings. He allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings in that 10-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 2 opposite Nola. The Phillies are 38-13 in their last 51 games as home favorites of -150 to -200. Bet the Phillies in Game 6 Monday. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -130 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show | |
15* Dolphins/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia ML -130 I love the spot for the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night. They are coming off their first loss of the season to the New York Jets in a game they basically gave away. They will respond in a big way, and they will be fully focused with the hype-train Miami Dolphins coming to town Sunday night. They want to destroy this hype train. Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles turned it over four times to give the game to the Jets last week. Keep in mind the Jets have held the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in check, so they have an elite defense and have a way of slowing down some of the top quarterbacks in the league. The Dolphins haven't had to face them yet, but they will have similar issues when they do. The Eagles have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 97 yards per game. They have great ball control averaging nearly 35 minutes of time of possession. They rush for 150 yards per game and 4.5 per carry. Their ground game and ability to play keep away from the Dolphins is going to be a big key to victory here. That's especially the case when you look at the forecast. There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Philadelphia Sunday night. That's going to keep Miami's downfield passing game in check, and the team that runs the football better is going to have a big advantage. That team is Philadelphia. This reminds me a lot of the Miami at Buffalo game a few weeks ago. Buffalo's defense was healthy at that point and could get pressure by rushing four and not blitzing. Buffalo won that game 48-20 to not only expose this Miami offense, but expose this Miami defense as well. Philadelphia can get pressure rushing four and dropping seven without blitzing as well. They have one of the best defensive lines in football, and they are expected to get back both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay this week, who they didn't have against the Jets. They led the NFL in sacks last year and are one of the best pressure defensive lines in the NFL again this season. It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Eagles off that upset loss, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after back-to-back wins and covers against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Giants and Panthers. They only beat the Giants by 15 as 12.5-point favorites and needed a late TD to cover as 14-point favorites against the Panthers. This is a huge step up in class for the Dolphins, who were playing in perfect conditions at home in those two games and now have to hit the road for the first time since that 28-point loss at Buffalo and deal with the elements in Philadelphia. Bet the Eagles on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 39 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5 I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week. They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses. They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy. Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season. Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved. However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season. Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well. The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago. The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season. The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game. They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS. The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions. The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well. Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell. The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders. The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions. The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver. Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans. Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 23 m | Show |
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7.5 Note: I love 6-point teasers with the Seahawks -1.5 this week. My favorite teaser partner for them is Colts +8, but other good options are Giants +8 & Falcons +8.5. The Seattle Seahawks are pissed off coming into this one so they won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly. They returned from their bye week and blew their game on the road at Cincinnati in one of the most misleading finals in the NFL. They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards. They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play. The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points. They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line. That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling. I expect their offense to right the ship this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games. In the lone game they didn't allow at least 26, the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone against them and still had 416 total yards. Arizona allows 27.0 points per game, 377 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. Seattle's defense is one of the more underrated units in the league. They have gotten healthy in recent weeks especially in the secondary and are showing what they are capable of. Joe Burrow just lit up this Arizona defense for 34 points and and 317 passing yards. The Seahawks then held Burrow to 185 passing yards on 35 attempts, averaging just 5.3 per attempt last week. That came after holding the Giants to 3 points and 248 total yards. Arizona's offense has come back down here quite a bit in recent weeks. They have averaged just 15.0 points per game in their last three games. After getting three field goals in the first half against the Rams last week, they were shut out in the 2nd half. The Rams rushed for nearly 200 yards in the 2nd half alone on their soft defense. What has hurt Arizona's offense in recent weeks is losing RB James Conner to injury. They just don't have a replacement for him. He rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games against the Giants and Cowboys and averaged 5.4 per carry on the season. Their running game is almost non-existent without him, putting too much pressure on Josh Dobbs to make plays with his arm, making their offense more predictable. The Cardinals are 1-5 this season and now currently playing like the team that most of us thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL. As of Wednesday there is a 75% chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday. The team that runs the football more effectively is going to have a huge advantage. Well, we saw what the Rams did against the Cardinals on the ground last week. Arizona allows 133 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. Seattle has been elite against the run, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season. Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins coming by 8 points or more, including two on the road. I expect them to make it four in a row here. I'm also concerned with Dobbs and the return of Kyler Murray to practice this week, though he isn't going to play in this game but may play in their next game. Dobbs is a dead man walking and he knows it and it's a big distraction for him and the team. Pete Carroll is 53-27 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 350 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Seattle. Bet the Seahawks Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -135 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 146 h 34 m | Show |
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens ML -135 The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season. They just got their entire starting line healthy in time for that game in London. And that was an 18-3 game at halftime that turned into a 24-16 game and a misleading final. The Ravens dominated the Titans outgaining them 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards. The Ravens should be 6-0 this season. They dominated the box score in their OT loss to the Colts and they dominated the box score and blew a 10-point lead late in their loss to the Steelers. If the Ravens were 6-0 right now like they should be, we'd be laying a bigger price on the money line on them this week. The Ravens have elite numbers this season averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the NFL. They really have an elite defense, allowing 15.2 points per game and 261 yards per game. This will be by far the best defense that Detroit has faced yet this season. While the Ravens are getting healthy, the Lions are banged up on the offensive line and at running back. They are going to be without bruiser David Montgomery this week, and they are going to need to be able to run the ball given the weather forecast. There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Baltimore on Sunday. The pass-happy Lions aren't going to fare very well outdoors in these conditions. The wind won't affect the run-heavy Ravens nearly as much. Detroit's defensive scheme struggles against running quarterbacks dating back to last season, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has admitted is a problem. It will rear its ugly head against Lamar Jackson and company this week. Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog. Jackson is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. And better yet, Jackson is 10-0 ATS in his last 10 starts with a line of +3 to -3. He wins these games that are expected to be close, and I trust him in this spot given all the factors. Look what he did against the vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 4, leading the Ravens to a 28-3 road victory as a 1.5-point favorite. It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lions, who have won and covered four straight against an easy schedule of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay. They lost to Seattle in Week 2 at home, and I'm high on the Seahawks. They did beat the Chiefs in Week 1, but that was a fluky result with a pick 6 off a wide open receiver's hands that was the difference in a 1-point win. Now the Lions take a big step up in class this week after facing four straight cupcake opponents. It won't go well for them on the road in the wind in Baltimore this weekend. Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +2.5 | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2.5 The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville last week. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Colts this week now. Gardner Minshew hadn't turned the ball over once prior to that Jacksonville game, so it was an aberration. The Colts had to go away from their game plan after falling behind 21-3 in the first half. They want to run the football with their two-headed monster of Moss and Taylor, and they will get back to running the football this week. Shane Steichen won't leave Minshew out to dry against this Cleveland pass rush. No question Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL. But their offense leaves a lot to be desired, and as of this writing they don't know whether or not Deshean Watson returns this week. I like the Colts either way. This is a massive letdown spot for the Browns following their 19-17 upset win over the 49ers last week to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season. The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses last week against the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game. The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it. Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead. The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Stefanski is 3-15 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Cleveland. Bet the Colts Sunday. |
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10-21-23 | Arizona State +28.5 v. Washington | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 121 h 10 m | Show |
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +28.5 This is a massive letdown spot for Washington. They are come off their 'game of the year' beating Oregon 36-33 after the Ducks missed a last-second field goal. They gave up 541 total yards to the Ducks and were outgained by 126 yards and arguably should have lost, but the ball bounced their way. Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. was noticeably injured coming down the stretch of that game but he gutted it out. There's a chance he doesn't play this week, and even if he does he won't be 100%. The coaching staff will be cautious with him either way, and I don't think the Huskies have any incentive to get margin here. They will be more than happy just getting out with a victory by any margin. Now they must face an Arizona State team playing their best football of the season and fresh off a bye. This is the 'game of the year' for the Sun Devils with a chance to knock off an unbeaten. I've been very impressed with them in recent weeks against quality competition. Arizona State has gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs. They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards. They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards. They should have won both of those games, and will be champing at the bit to get a win coming off their bye. Arizona State pulled the 45-38 upset as 13.5-point home dogs against Washington last season. The Sun Devils are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, also pulling an outright upset as 17.5-point dogs. Arizona State is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Washington. Washington hasn't beaten Arizona State by more than 26 points in any the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Sun Devils pertaining to this 28.5-point spread. Bet Arizona State Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Phillies/Diamondbacks NLCS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -124 I'll gladly trust Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies over Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks as short favorites in this pivotal Game 5. The Phillies won the first two games in this series by a total of 15 runs, while the Diamondbacks won the last two games by a combined two runs. It's clear the Phillies are the better team in this series even though it's 2-2. Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in three postseason starts this year, allowing 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings with 26 K's. Wheeler is 7-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 12 career starts against Arizona. He has held the Diamondbacks to 3 runs and 8 base runners in 12 innings with 15 K's in his last two starts against them this season. Zac Gallen is 19-10 with a 3.58 ERA in 37 starts this season. Gallen was blasted for 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings opposite Wheeler in his last start. The Phillies clearly have him figured out, and I expect more of the same here in Game 5. Bet the Phillies Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Colorado State v. UNLV OVER 61.5 | Top | 23-25 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 49 m | Show |
25* Mountain West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/UNLV OVER 61.5 UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 4-0 in UNLV's last four games overall with 77, 73, 64 and 72 combined points. They have an elite offense that scores 37.7 points per game while averaging 6.1 yards per play and a soft defense that allows 6.2 yards per play despite facing a very soft schedule up to this point. Colorado State is also a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 5-0 in Colorado State's five games this season with 74, 78, 54, 68 and 61 combined points. The 54-point game was a bad weather game at Middle Tennessee. The Rams have an improved offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game, and a terrible defense that allows 38.0 points per game, 485 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. This game will be played at a fast pace with Colorado State ranking 6th in the country in tempo at 21.2 seconds between plays and UNLV at 60th at 25.7 seconds. Plus, UNLV has been protecting a lot of leads late and going a little slower in the second half. They won't be able to do that against Colorado State and will have the pedal to the metal for four quarters. UNLV is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Appalachian State v. Old Dominion +6.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +6.5 I love the spot for Old Dominion this week. They are coming off a bye and I have been very impressed with what they have been able to do in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. They have been an underdog in all five games and have managed to win two of them outright. Old Dominion is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. It started with a 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs. That Louisiana team looks like a Sun Belt title contender this season. The Monarchs only lost 24-27 as 14-point home underdogs to Wake Forest and 35-41 as 14.5-point road dogs at Marshall. Then they beat Southern Miss 17-13 as 3-point road dogs going into the bye. Appalachian State has been very disappointing this season. The Mountaineers are 3-3 with their three wins coming against Gardner Webb, a rebuilding East Carolina (1-5) team, and a 41-40 win as 13.5-point favorites over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) team. They also lost at Wyoming and were upset at home by Coastal Carolina coming into this one. This Appalachian State defense just cannot be trusted to get margin. The Mountaineers allow 30.2 points per game, 396.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Compared that to Old Dominion, which allows just 5.1 yards per play, and it's easy to see which team has the better defense. The Monarchs are holding opponents 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages, while the Mountaineers are allowing 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents typically average. Appalachian State has the better offense, but not by much as they average 6.1 yards per play while Old Dominion averages 5.9 yards per play. Old Dominion is outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play while Appalachian State is dead even in net yards per play (6.1 to 6.1). Plus, Old Dominion has played the tougher schedule to this point. Appalachian State is 3-12 ATS in it last 15 games as a favorite. The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Appalachian State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after going under the total in its previous game. Shawn Clark is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Appalachian State. Bet Old Dominion Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +2 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 37 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2 Both Toledo (6-1) and Miami Ohio (6-1) are in line to win the MAC this season. This game has massive MAC title implications, and I'll gladly side with the home underdog here as I believe Miami is the better, more complete team. Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall despite winning all five outright. The Rockets have been fortunate in close games, beating San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites and Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites. They also beat awful Western Michigan and UMass but failed to cover in both. Conversely, Miami Ohio is 6-0 ATS & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since losing at Miami in the opener. That includes an upset road win at Cincinnati as 14-point dogs, and the Redhawks have been handling their business in all other game with the other five wins all coming by 13 points or more. Miami has the better defense allowing 19.1 points per game, 333 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Toledo has been slightly worse in all three categories. But I feel the main difference is I trust QB Brett Gabbert over Toledo's Daquan Finn. Gabbert has quietly been the best QB in the MAC this season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,455 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt. Finn averages 7.9 per attempt with a 12-to-5 ratio. It is expected to be windy at Miami on Saturday. I trust Miami Ohio's run defense more than that of Toledo as well. Miami allows 133 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry, while Toledo allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. All of these are slight edges in Miami's favor, but they add up when you're talking about getting the home team as an underdog. Bet Miami Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 114 h 8 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +4 The Iowa Hawkeyes have nine lives this season with their pitiful offense. They are 6-1 this season in spite of an offense that averages 20.9 points per game, 438.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. The Hawkeyes are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season. I'm confident the Hawkeyes come back down to reality this week. It's a terrible spot for Iowa, which is come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week to put them in the driver's seat for winning the Big Ten West. That makes this a letdown spot, plus the Hawkeyes are a tired, banged up team playing for an 8th consecutive week. The Hawkeyes were already without their best weapon in TE Luke Lachey and QB Cade McNamara. Then they lost their next-best weapon in TE Erick Ali to a season-ending torn ACL against Wisconsin. They just have no playmakers on offense, and backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious, completing 38.6% (27-of-70) of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in rested and ready to go off a bye week. There's a good chance the Golden Gophers get some key players back on offense following the bye at receiver. The Gophers are primed for one of their best efforts of the season, and you can bet PJ Fleck and company are putting a lot into this game considering Fleck has never beaten Iowa. The fact that Fleck has never beaten Iowa is more of a fluke than anything because the Hawkeyes keep escaping with victories from the jaws of defeat against him. Indeed, Iowa has an eight-game winning streak against Minnesota, but six of those wins came by 7 points or less. Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite getting outgained 399 to 280, or by 119 yards. The year prior, they won 27-22 despite getting outgained 409 to 277, or by 132 total yards. Iowa has had nine lives against Minnesota, too. But the streak ends this year given the terrible spot for Iowa and the great one for Minnesota. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 90-45 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Minnesota Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 46 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois UNDER 46 This play is largely due to the weather but also because both teams have very good defenses and both run slow-tempo offenses. There are expected to be 20 MPH crosswinds at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois on Saturday afternoon. Heavy winds affect scoring more than anything because it makes it much more difficult to pass than it does in rain and snow. Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in the country. Out of 133 teams, the Eagles rank 122nd in scoring at 19.0 points per game, 132nd in total offense at 253.1 yards per game and 130th at 4.3 yards per play. This despite facing the 2nd-easiest schedule in the entire country. Simply put, this Eastern Michigan offense is atrocious. With those offensive numbers, it's amazing the Eagles have managed to win four games. They have done so due to good luck plus a pretty good defense that is only allowing 19.4 points per game. They'll be up against a Northern Illinois offense that averages 24.9 points per game and is far from a juggernaut, averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play as well. But Northern Illinois has a very good defense as well allowing just 22.4 points per game, 321 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. They rank 23rd in total defense and 27th in yards per play. I don't expect them to allow much at all to Eastern Michigan in this one. They held Akron to 14 points and Ohio to 13 points in their last two games coming in. As I stated at the beginning, both offenses are in no hurry. Eastern Michigan ranks 109th in the country averaging 28.4 seconds in between plays. Northern Illinois ranks 104th averaging 27.9 seconds in between plays. Eastern Michigan is 5-2 UNDER on the season. Five of Eastern Michigan's last six games have seen 42 or fewer combined points. Four of Northern Illinois' last six games have seen 46 or fewer combined points, including 36 or fewer three times. The MAC is loaded with terrible offenses in general, and there has been some bad weather already, which is normal for the Ohio Valley. The winds have just been stronger than normal this season, and we'll take advantage by backing this MAC UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Buffalo v. Kent State +7 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 8 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +7 I didn't expect to be betting on Kent State at any point this season. But here we are. I'm big on fading Buffalo because the Bulls are one of the very worst teams in all of college football. And they have no business being favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, not even Kent State. Buffalo is 2-5 this season with some awful numbers. The Bulls are averaging 323 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play and allowing 423 yards per game and 6.4 per play, getting outgained by 100 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. Kent State has very similar numbers to Buffalo and has played the much tougher schedule. The Golden Flashes have already faced UCF, Arkansas, Fresno and Ohio on the road. Kent State is getting outgained by 108 yards per game and by 1.6 yards per play. These are much closer to even teams than this line would indicate. Buffalo just lost 24-14 at home to Bowling Green last week and I was on Bowling Green in that game. It should have been an even bigger blowout as the Bulls turned it over 5 times and were outgained by 62 yards. Kent State lost 28-14 at Eastern Michigan last week in a game they should have won. They opened the game with an onside kick that was returned for a TD. Kent State outgained Eastern MIchigan 343 to 218, or by 125 total yards, yet lost by 14. It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Golden Flashes off that misleading defeat. There's a 63% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds forecast, meaning this game is likely to be played on the ground. That benefits Kent State. Despite the tough schedule, Kent State only allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Buffalo allows 197 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a conference loss. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Kent State Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 42.5 | 25-21 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5 The weather forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER between Wisconsin and Illinois Saturday. There are expected to be 22 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium with gusts upwards of 30. That's going to force both of these teams to keep the ball on the ground, shortening the game and helping us cash this UNDER 42.5 ticket. Wisconsin is definitely going to want to keep the ball on the ground more than normal after losing starting QB Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand suffered in the 15-6 loss to Iowa last week. That's a massive blow for this Wisconsin offense as Mordecai was completing 63.7% of his passes for 1,127 yards on the season. Backup Braedyn Locke is a big downgrade, completing 51.6% of his 31 passes this season while averaging 4.2 per attempt. Both teams have good defenses with Wisconsin allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. Illinois is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play, so their defense have been better than the scoring numbers show. The beat Maryland outright last week while holding that high-octane Terrapins offense to 24 points. Both teams are good against the run as Illinois allows 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.9 per rush, holding them 0.6 yards per rush below their season averages. Wisconsin allows just 3.9 yards per rush even after allowing an 82-yard TD run to Iowa last week. Illinois is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games as an underdog. The Fighting Illini are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-21-23 | Charlotte +7.5 v. East Carolina | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 89 h 38 m | Show | |
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +7.5 In this battle between two of the worst teams in college football, I'll side with the road team catching more than a touchdown. I honestly think Charlotte is the better team in this one, and East Carolina (1-5) has zero home-field advantage this season. It's a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it has shown. I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country. The 49ers are just 1-5 this season as well, but they have impressed me against some very good competition. They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU. They are now 3-0 ATS on the road this season and now take a step down in class here against ECU. SMU is a common opponent, and ECU just lost 31-10 at home to SMU as 11-point dogs. Charlotte was only outgained by 32 yards by SMU on the road while ECU was outgained by 44 yards by SMU at home. ECU also lost 31-13 to Marshall at home earlier this season and is 1-2 at home with its lone win coming against FCS Gardner Webb. This is a very poor ECU offense that is averaging 19.2 points per game, 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season. They are going to struggle to get margin with this putrid offense. There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds which is going to keep scoring suppressed as well. Charlotte relies more on the run than ECU does, so the wind will affect ECU's passing game more. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Charlotte Saturday. |
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Rangers UNDER 9 Aces Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery square off in a rematch from Game 1 that resulted in a pitcher's duel and a 2-0 victory in favor of the Rangers. It should be more of the same tonight with scoring suppressed after each of the last three games when over the total. Verlander is 14-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in his last three starts. Verlander is 22-10 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 38 career starts against Texas. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in two starts against the Rangers this season. Jordan Montgomery is 12-10 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 35 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in three postseason starts. Montgomery is 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in seven career starts against Houston. He has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings in two starts against the Astros this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -116 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 45 h 11 m | Show |
20* Jaguars/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans ML -116 The New Orleans Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Houston Texans while the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a misleading win over the Indianapolis Colts. This has created line value on the Saints, and now it's time to 'buy low' on them and 'sell high' on the Jaguars. The Saints lost 20-13 at Houston last week. They had 430 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding the Texans to 297 yards and 5.0 per play. Yet they only managed 13 points due to a pair of missed field goals and red zone struggles. They easily should have won that game. The Jaguars won 37-20 at home over the Colts last week. The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points. The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers. They gave up 354 yards and 4.7 per play to the Colts. Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in that Indianapolis game and was noticeably limping. He was seen in a knee brace in Tuesday's practice and won't be 100% for this one if he goes. The Jaguars are also likely to be without their best offensive lineman in Brandon Scherff, another offensive linemen in Walker Little, one of their top targets in WR Zay Jones, and their best CB in Tyson Campbell. The Jaguars are a tired team right now after playing two games in London, then traveling back to Jacksonville to play the Colts without taking a bye. And now they have to travel again to New Orleans on a short week with a bad looking injury report. This is too tall of a task to ask them to play their best game, which is what it would take for them to get a win here. The Saints could be missing two offensive linemen as well, but basically everyone else that's on the injury report is expected to play. They are much healthier than the Jaguars. Most of Jacksonville's injuries are on offense, and they will now have to go up against one of the league's best defenses. The Saints allow just 16.0 points per game, 278.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. They have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Bet the Saints on the Money Line Thursday. |
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10-19-23 | Rice v. Tulsa OVER 57 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
20* Rice/Tulsa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57 Rice is a dead nuts OVER team. They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 84, 66, 71 and 69 combined points in the four overs. The lone under was a bad weather game against East Carolina, which has no offense. The weather conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Tulsa Thursday night with temps in the 70's, no rain and single-digit winds. Rice is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season averaging 32.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. A big reason for their success is transfer QB JT Daniels, who is thriving in this offense. He his completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,831 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He is being forced to try and win shootouts due to a poor Rice defense that allows 30.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. Tulsa has played in a pair of shootouts in its last two home games. They beat Temple 48-26 for 74 combined points and lost 66-17 to Oklahoma for 83 combined points. The Golden Hurricane have ramped up their offense in recent weeks and hung 48 points and 533 total yards on Temple. Cardell Williams is a great dual-threat QB for the Golden Hurricane. He is completing 60.8% of his passes for 955 yards with an 8-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt. He has also rushed for 110 yards and three scores. He'll be facing a very poor Rice pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt. Tulsa's defense leaves a lot to be desired as well. The Golden Hurricane allow 29.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They have been very poor against the pass, allowing 66.2% completions, 270 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks should thrive against these two pass defenses. Rice is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games overall. Rice is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a non-conference game. Kevin Wilson is 29-13 OVER in home games as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-19-23 | Phillies -116 v. Diamondbacks | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Phillies/Diamondbacks NLCS ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -116 The Phillies are 8-1 in the postseason with all eight wins coming by two runs or more. They should be 9-0 at they blew a 4-0 lead to the Braves. They have outscored the Phillies 18-3 in two games this series, and it should be more of the same in Game 3 with their big advantage on the mound. Ranger Suarez has been at his best on the road this season with a 2.58 ERA in 11 road starts. Suarez has been dominant in the postseason with a 1.04 ERA in two starts against the Braves, allowing just one earned run and 5 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. The Phillies won both of his starts against Spencer Strider. Suarez fired 7 shutout innings in his last start at Arizona on June 14th. He'll be opposed by rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who is 3-9 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 11 home starts. Pfaadt has allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 7 innings in two postseason starts thus far. The Phillies are a perfect 8-0 in Suarez's eight playoff starts over the last two seasons. They improve to 9-0 with another win in Game 3 today. Bet the Phillies Thursday. |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
20* New Mexico State/UTEP ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New Mexico State -3 New Mexico State has elite numbers this season for a 4-3 team. The Aggies average 7.7 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense. Compare that to UTEP (2-5), which averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and 6.1 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see the Aggies are the superior team here. Diego Paiva is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country for New Mexico State. He is a dual-threat who is completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards while averaging 9.8 per attempt with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He also leads the team in rushing with 429 yards on 5.6 per carry and two touchdowns. UTEP is down to fourth-string QB Cade McConnell due to injuries and poor play. He is getting a lot of love for torching Florida International last week, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football. He completed 11-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns. But he did all of his damage in the 1st quarter of that game as the Miners jumped out to a 21-0 lead, then got outscored 14-6 in the final three quarters. That first quarter was an aberration, and McConnell will come back down to reality here against a much better opponent in New Mexico State. This is a putrid UTEP offense that averages 17.7 points per game on the season. The offense is averaging 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents allow on average, and their defense is allowing 0.5 yards per play more than their opponents average on offense. They lost 24-10 to LA Tech in their last home game, and LA Tech is one of the worst teams in the country. Their two wins came against FIU and FCS Incarnate Word. UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Dana Dimel is 4-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as a head coach. UTEP is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 home games after losing four of its last five games. Jerry Kill is 6-0 ATS after winning two of their last three games as the coach of the Aggies. Bet New Mexico State Wednesday. |