*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama won lost night 73-64. Appalachian State shot the ball really poorly from the floor. That was surprising given that South Alabama has what is probably the worst defense in the Sun Belt. I would expect Appalachian State to bounce back with a better shooting performance here. There were very few free throws in last night's contest. There are likely to be a few more today. 

Last year's meetings between these two flew over this total and yesterday's game should have been a little higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Green Bay* Detroit blew out Green Bay yesterday. Why do I want to play Green Bay plus the points today? First, quick revenge in these back to back spots has been a good angle ATS. More importantly though, Detroit made 17 out of 26 three pointers in last night's game. Detroit shot 32% from 3 last year and they are 35% this year after that barrage last night.

I don't expect that kind of shooting from them again. I look to see Green Bay stay close in this one as the shooting numbers normalize quite a bit from yesterday.

Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star Play on North Dakota* North Dakota State coasted to a win last night. North Dakota State also shot 21 free throws. How many did North Dakota shoot? Zero! That virtually never happens. North Dakota was -21 in free throw attempts on their home court. This creates an inflated line for tonight's game. It's a chance for North Dakota to bounce back against their rival, and it is highly unlikely they will get such an unfavorable whistle in this game.

Grab the points.

Take North Dakota. 

*4 Star Play on Milwaukee* Fort Wayne picked up the upset last night over Milwaukee. If you look at the quality of shots taken in that game though, Fort Wayne took far more contested shots and made a lot of them. Last night's game was misleading. Overall, Fort Wayne has a statistical profile that is screaming regression to the mean. On the other side, Milwaukee looks like a team that should have a better record than they do.

Here we get a discounted price on the better team and at home.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are playing at the single slowest pace of any team in basketball in conference play. They are using 21.7 seconds in an average possession. That is running the shot clock down to 8.3 seconds on average, which is stall ball at its best. 

Bradley plays at an average pace, but the Braves are clearly better on defense than offense. Bradley has already played a couple very low scoring games this year and Evansville is the slowest paced team they have played.

I wouldn't expect transition points in this one. Both teams run the clock and look for a jumper. This is a low total, but it is low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the LA Rams on Saturday. 

The LA Rams have the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that just doesn't give up big plays in the passing game. The secondary is deep and they will challenge the Packers passing game. Green Bay also is banged up on the offensive line and I see that being a problem here against an elite defensive front who can really get after the passer.

The Rams quarterback play is a major question mark. Jared Goff didn't look good at all last week. He looked like a guy who was struggling to make all the throws. He was throwing wobblers and couldn't get a spiral. His injury seems like a major problem. The cold weather has always been tough for him and I don't see it going well here.

The Rams should run it often and try to keep the clock moving. The Packers play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Utah* The Cal Golden Bears are expected to be without Matt Bradley (severe ankle sprain) again in this one. Bradley is clearly the team's best player and leading scorer. Without him, Cal has really struggled on the offensive end. Cal is also without Kuany Kuany who has been a key contributor off the bench. 

Utah has stayed pretty healthy this year. The Utes have plenty of signs of positive regression. They have missed a lot of open looks this year, and I expect their offense to see positive regression. I'm intrigued by their drastic improvement on the defensive end this year as well.

Cal is a shorthanded team that doesn't have a deep bench. They are playing their second game in three days at altitude. Utah is far more talented and I think laying the points here is a solid value.

Take Utah. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are still a very good team this year, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a year ago. They lost very key pieces in Haws, Childs, and Toolson. 

BYU is actually much better on defense this year though. They have Haarms in the middle to keep people out of the paint a bit. They also have athletic guards who are quick and stay in front of their man.

San Francisco has slowed their pace a bit in recent games, and I think the Dons are okay with a more defensive contest here.

I think this one should be priced 4 or 5 points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears are healthy once again. This Mercer offense is going to do some major damage with Alvarez and Cummings in the backcourt. This is an excellent offensive team.

Western Carolina has a star on offense in Faulkner. The Catamounts have been out of action lately, but they will be one of the better offenses and one of the worse defenses in this conference. 

Look for a fast pace and the offenses to have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State 57-45 win over San Diego State on Thursday night was very impressive. Utah State doesn't have Merrill this year and that really hurts their offense. Their defense is even better this year though. 

San Diego State lost their key contributors on offense from last year as well, but they are even better on defense also.

This game is totaled right about where the first one was, and I think that is too high. Open looks will be very tough to come by in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs want to play very fast this year. They have been using a full court press to try to create scoring opportunities in transition. UNC Greensboro also uses pressure defense. Both of these teams foul a lot and their games can end up adding up quickly late in the game because of the trips to the stripe.

They just played a couple days ago and the final total was 150. Samford was 5/26 from 3 in that game. Both teams shot below 65% from the free throw line as well. That game should have been near 160 instead of 150.

With a total slightly lower here, I'll take the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at the slowest pace of any team in the Mountain West. Wyoming has pushed the tempo against several teams this year, but they have also had the occasional slow paced contest. I think Air Force can dictate the tempo in this game. 

Wyoming has shot the ball well so far this year, but they have regression signs on offense. They have been playing a bunch of really weak defenses and their numbers should come back down to their expected outputs.

Air Force has been better defensively at home, and they get this contest at home.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under.