Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Picks & Betting Odds

November 18, 2009

The 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers take on the 2-7 Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 11 AFC non-division clash. Last week, Pittsburgh was defeated 18-12 at home by Cincinnati to endure the season sweep while Kansas City avenged an earlier season loss to Oakland to pick up its second win. Maybe the Chiefs should relocate to the bay as they have now won seven straight times in Oakland. These two teams have not met since the 2006 season and it was a meeting the Chiefs would just as soon forget as Pittsburgh rolled 45-7. The Steelers hold a 17-9 lead in the all-time series, but the teams have alternated wins over the last nine meetings. The books have listed the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 10-point favorite with the total set at 40 this week.

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The Chiefs are watching the players they figured would be their stars heading into the season drop like flies in recent weeks. The Chiefs just parted ways with Larry Johnson and now they will be without leading wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, who was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. That means that the Chiefs are going to need Bobby Wade and Lance Long to step up. Long has a chance to make a name for himself the way Miles Austin has in Dallas when we was given the opportunity. Long was cut by the Arizona Cards, but he was picked up by the Chiefs and has played pretty good football the last two weeks. A team running short on playmakers could really used a lift from Long.

The defense must play one of its best games of the season to have a shot at upsetting the Steelers. The Steelers certainly know the value of their star safety Troy Polamalu and the Chiefs saw the value of safety Mike Brown last week. Brown came up with two difference-making interceptions against the Raiders to help the Chiefs secure the win. The Chiefs could use another big play or two from Brown this week.

Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the best in the NFL and it is great at leaving the offense with good field position. That means that a big day from Chiefs punter Dustin Colquitt could go a long way toward pulling the upset as well. Colquitt leads the NFL with 27 punts inside the 20-yard line and he will be counted on to give Pittsburgh a long field Sunday. It is worth noting that the Steelers are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. If you think odds makers are spotting Kansas City too many points, bet the Chiefs at +10 at Bookmaker.

So far so good for the Steelers against the AFC West as they are 2-0 against the division this season with wins over its two best teams (San Diego, Denver). During Pittsburgh’s five-game winning streak, we began to hear less and less about its questionable offensive line, but the unit finds itself back on the hot seat after last week’s performance. The Bengals’ pass rush was in Ben Roethliberger’s face all game long, sacking him four times, and Rashard Mendenhall was only able to grind out 36 yards rushing. I would hope the unit could bounce back this week against a Chiefs defense ranking 31st in sacks and 27th in stopping the run.

Defensively, the Steelers are expected to be without their best playmaker and the heart and soul of the defense, Troy Polamalu. He is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Pittsburgh was not the same defense without him when he missed time earlier this season so it will be interesting to see how they play if he can’t go Sunday. It is worth noting that the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. If you like Pittsburgh to bounce back in a big way Sunday, bet the Chiefs at +10 at Bookmaker.

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