OSS: What Oregon Ducks Need to Do This Weekend To Start Sniffing the Roses
November 17, 2009
Only two games remain between the Oregon Ducks and their fifth appearance in the Rose Bowl. The two games left on the schedule might be the most challenging ones they have played all season.
This Saturday, the Ducks will travel to Tucson to take on an angry Arizona Wildcat team coming off a tough loss to the Cal Bears.
Arizona quarterback Nick Foles has been efficient throughout the course of the season but has shown some cracks recently, leaving people wondering if Arizona has already played their best football.
You can bet that they will give Oregon all they can handle on a night when ESPN’s College Gameday will be in town for the first time ever.
Some Duck fans believe that Arizona Stadium is a house of horrors for past Oregon teams. But dating back to the 1999 season, Oregon has traveled to Tucson five times and won four of those games.
The last two trips, however, had Oregon leave with a different starting quarterback then they came in with. Kellen Clemens broke his ankle in 2005 and Dennis Dixon finished off his ACL in 2007 (which was actually torn against Arizona State in the previous game).
Duck fans shudder at the thought of losing another quarterback in Tucson, but they should really be worrying about Nick Foles.
Foles has the third-highest passer rating in the conference and the second-highest completion percentage. His offensive lineman have protected him well. He is the least-sacked quarterback in the conference, going down only five times so far this year.
But the Ducks have to like the fact that they will not play anymore bruising running backs. Arizona has some playmakers back there, but no one with the size of Toby Gerhart. Nic Grigbsy and Keola Antolin lead the Arizona rushing attack and gave the Ducks trouble last year, rushing for 199 yards on 52 carries.
To me, it is not a matter of whether Arizona can slow Oregon’s offense, but whether Oregon can slow Arizona’s.
People will look at the Stanford game and say the Ducks defense is vulnerable, but the Cardinal played a virtually flawless game. Arizona has shown weaknesses as well, though, giving up 4.4 yards per carry last week to a Jahvid Best-less Cal team.
But like most other match-ups between good teams, turnovers will be key. The Wildcats are even in turnover margin this season, while Oregon is plus-four.
To win this game, Oregon must go through LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli. If the Ducks aren’t on early, and they can’t stop Arizona, it will be a very similar game to the loss they incurred on the farm two weeks ago.
Masoli has thrown only one interception in conference play and the Ducks have been able to hold onto the ball relatively well.
One final thing to keep an eye on Saturday night is how Masoli is throwing the ball. At different points during the Arizona State game last Saturday, it seemed like Masoli lost focus. He has struggled at times throughout the season on certain possessions. From what I have seen, if he misses his first pass on a drive, it seems to mess up his rhythm. The encouraging thing is that even if he struggles on a drive, he can turn it on the next time he comes on the field.
To win, the Ducks have to confuse Foles with their zone blitzes and hope that he makes some mistakes. There should be some fireworks in Tucson Saturday night with the nation watching.
If the Ducks escape Tucson, it sets up an Oregon/Oregon State Civil War, with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl. It would be the first time since 1964, when the Beavers beat the Ducks 7-6 and eventually lost to Michigan in the Rose bowl 34-7.
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