Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers NFL Week 11 Picks & Odds
November 17, 2009
This Thursday night a pair of 4-5 teams will be looking to get back to .500 when the Miami Dolphins take on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Last week, the Dolphins needed a late field goal to escape with a 25-23 win over Tampa Bay while the Panthers took care of division-rival Atlanta 28-19. These two teams have not met since the 2005 season when the Dolphins beat the Panthers 27-24 in a good one behind 132 rushing yards by Ronnie Brown. There have only been three meetings between these two franchises and Miami has won all three. But NFL odds makers expect to see that streak come to an end Thursday, listing the Carolina Panthers as 3-point favorite with the total set at 43.
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Miami won its only other trip to Carolina 13-9 back in 1998, but the Phins could have their work cut out for themselves this time around. The Panthers are coming on strong and Miami running back Ronnie Brown is listed as doubtful. That means that Ricky Williams, who has rushed for 558 yards and six scores on a 5.3 yards per carry average, will take over as the feature back. But Williams is no spring chicken, and seems to thrive because he is a change of pace after the defense gets used to Brown. Lex Hilliard is the next running back in line and he will likely split carries with Williams Thursday. If Hilliard does the job, the Dolphins, who are averaging 156 yards rushing on 4.6 yards per carry, will still be tough to stop on the ground.
Joey Porter is currently listed as questionable for this week’s game, but he was back practicing Monday after sitting out last week’s contest with the Bucs. Porter is a very important part of this defense. He isn’t putting up big numbers this season, but teams know he must be accounted for when he is on the field. If Porter is able to go and Jason Taylor is able to continue his solid play, the Dolphins may be able to get enough heat to force Jake Delhomme into more costly turnovers. Delhomme has done a better job of taking care of the football in recent weeks, but he is not immune to throwing interceptions by any means. Miami is only giving up 98 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry so that means Delhomme may have to throw it to beat the Dolphins. It is worth noting that the Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. If you like Miami Thursday, bet the Dolphins at +3 at BetUS.
It has been home sweet home for the Panthers who improved to 10-2 their last 12 regular season home games with last Sunday’s win over the Falcons. Home field could be huge in this one as the Dolphins are just 1-3 away from home this season. The Panthers have won 4 of their last six since getting out of the gate slow and their recent success can be attributed to running back tandem DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart getting it going. Williams has rushed for 860 yards and seven touchdowns on a 5.1 yards per carry average and Stewart has chipped in with 466 yards and six scores on a 4.8 yards per carry average. The Panthers could find running room at a premium, however, against Miami’s seventh ranked run defense. The Panthers are clearly at their best when they are able to run the football because it takes the pressure off of Delhomme, who hasn’t been nearly as reliable since returning from Tommy John surgery. In fact, Delhomme has thrown 13 interceptions this season. That’s six more picks than touchdowns. The Panthers have won two of their last three games and they did not turn the ball over in either of those contests. Delhomme must take care of the football to give his team a chance Thursday. It is worth noting that the Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3 points or less. If you like Carolina at home Thursday, bet the Panthers at -3 at BetUS.
Last Thursday night, Jimmy nailed his 5* NFL Total of the Week as the Bears and 49ers finished way under the total. Make sure you’re on board again this Thursday for more winning football picks!
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