Central Michigan at Ball State Football Odds & Predictions

November 16, 2009

The 8-2 Central Michigan Chippewas take on the 1-9 Ball State Cardinals Wednesday night at Ball State Stadium in a MAC showdown on ESPN 2. Last season Ball State came up with a 7-point road win to cover the 6.5-point spread by the slimmest of margins. This season the Cardinals will have home field advantage on their side, but football odds makers are giving the big edge to the Chippewas, listing Central Michigan as a 16.5-point favorite.

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Central Michigan is off to a 6-0 start in MAC play for the second consecutive season and this year it hopes it can end its conference campaign with a goose egg in the loss column. The Chipps will have an excellent opportunity to do so if they continue to get stellar play from QB Dan LeFevour and wide receiver Antonio Brown.

LeFevour is coming off a huge game against Toledo, completing 29 of 36 passes for 341 yards and accounting for six touchdowns. His two touchdown tosses moved him into 16th place in NCAA history with 92 for his career and his four touchdown runs made him Central Michigan’s all-time rushing touchdowns leader with 45. LeFevour also moved into ninth place in NCAA history in career completions with 1,058. But it certainly takes two to tango when you are a quarterback and LeFevour has had some good wideouts to work with. Brown moved into fourth place in all-time MAC receptions with 264 following a 13-catch game last week. Brown has 69 grabs for 734 yards on the season and 10 total touchdowns.

Central Michigan has had a tremendous season, and its defense is improved, allowing just 18.0 points per game in 2009, but the unit needs to do a better job of defending in the red zone from here on out. Maybe I’m being a little picky here, but the Chippewas allowed Toledo to score touchdowns on all four of its red zone trips. The Chipps also got off to a bit of a slow start against the Rockets, falling behind for the first time in conference play this season. These things aren’t major as long as the offense keeps hitting on all cylinders, but they could come back to haunt them later on down the road. It is worth noting that the Chippewas are 23-7-2 ATS in their last 32 conference games. If you like the Chipps to roll Wednesday, bet Central Michigan at -16.5 at BetUS.

When the Cards played the Chipps last season, they had their sights set on a MAC title. This time around they’ll be looking to play spoiler by handing Central Michigan its first conference loss. Ball State has definitely made major strides in recent weeks, picking up its first win of the season and then taking each of its last two opponents down to the wire. For Ball State to stay with the Chipps, it is going to have to quit shooting itself in the foot the way poor teams often do. Last game, the Cards were penalized nine times and five of those penalties were false starts. It was the second straight game that nine flags had been thrown on Ball State. The offensive line, especially, must show more discipline this week.

The good news is that Ball State’s defense is playing a whole lot better, especially against the run. The Cards are giving up just 114 yards per game on the ground in their last six games and that’s a big reason why they’ve been so competitive during this stretch. The Chippewas are averaging 170 yards per game on the ground so slowing down the running attack to make CMU one dimensional on offense will go a long way toward keeping this one close.

The player who could be a difference maker in the defensive backfield is cornerback Charlie Todd. While his coverage has been an issue at times this season, the junior really played well last week. He was very physical with the Northern Illinois receivers and in run support, finishing with a season-high 12 tackles. The Cards will need another strong game from him, and offensively, they’ll need QB Tanner Justice to take good care of the football and to make a few plays. He is coming off an 11 of 19 performance for a career-best 134 yards. It is worth noting that the Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. If you like the Cards to keep this one within the number, bet Ball State at +16.5 at BetUS.

Take your man to the cleaners on the college gridiron this week with expert football picks from World Champion Handicapper Jimmy Boyd!