Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Picks & Lines

November 18, 2009

The 3-6 Buffalo Bills head to Municipal Stadium this Sunday to take on the 5-4 Jacksonville Jaguars in a Week 11 AFC East versus South showdown. Last week, the Bills were crushed 41-17 by Tennessee while the Jags used a Josh Scobee field goal as time expired to defeat the Jets 24-22. These teams last met last season when Buffalo came on in the fourth quarter to rally for a 20-16 win. With that win, the Bills took a slim 5-4 lead in the all-time series. NFL lines makers have listed the surging Jacksonville Jaguars as 8.5-point favorites with the total set at 42.5.

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The big news heading into this game is that defensive coordinator Perry Fewell has been promoted to interim head man after the firing of Dick Jauron. The big question is if the change at the top will be for the better or if it will only serve as a further setback at this point.

Buffalo’s offense hasn’t showed much of a spark all season, averaging just 15.6 points per game. I know injuries have been an issue for this team, but maybe it’s time to start opening up the playbook a little bit. On paper, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch make up a formidable running back duo and many teams would love to have a wide receiver tandem like Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. I especially thing the wide receivers have been underutilized. Both Evans and Owens are averaging over 14 yards per catch but neither player has more than 27 receptions. In Owens, the Bills have a guy who is just 93 yards away from jumping Marvin Harrison for fourth place on the all-time receiving yards list. Let’s open up that playbook Buffalo.

Defensively, Jairus Byrd has been a bright spot for the Bills. The rookie has shown a unique nose for the football. He has eight picks on the season, including one in each of the last five games. It is worth noting that the Bills are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series and the Jaguars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. If you think Jacksonville has been overvalued in the home chalk role, bet the Bills at +8.5 at Sportsbook.com.

Since losing its first two games, Jacksonville has won five of its last seven, including three straight at home. Maurice Jones-Drew seems to be the right recipe for success this week against a Buffalo defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. These numbers are even worse on the road with Buffalo allowing 185 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Jones-Drew ranks fourth in the NFL with 860 rushing yards and also ranks fourth among running backs with 32 receptions. His 12 touchdowns are first in the league. It is worth noting that the Bills are on 3-10 ATS slide versus teams with a winning record. If you like Jacksonville to keep right on rolling and to cover the spread in the process, bet the Jaguars at -8.5 at Sportsbook.com.

Get winning football picks on the NFL gridiron this Sunday from World Champion Handicapper Jimmy Boyd!