Boise State at Utah State Football Lines & Picks

November 17, 2009

No. 6 ranked Boise State puts its 10-0 mark on the line when it takes on 3-7 Utah State at Romney Stadium in an ESPN 2 WAC showdown under the Friday night lights. The Broncos have won 8 in a row over the Aggies, and only one of those wins has been decided by less than 14 points. The books have listed the Boise State Broncos as a 24-point road favorite Friday night.

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While Boise State goes for another unbeaten season, trying to earn a BCS bowl bid, starting QB Kellen Moore is getting most of the praise. And that praise could earn him a trip to New York. The southpaw gunslinger is having a remarkable year with 32 touchdown passes against only three interceptions while completing nearly 68 percent of his passes. He’s really picked up the pace in recent weeks, throwing 19 touchdown strikes against just one interception in the Broncos’ last five games. His stellar play has helped Boise State boast the nation’s highest-scoring offense, which averages 43.6 points per game. Last Saturday, Moore threw for 299 yards and five touchdowns against Idaho. His favorite target, wide receiver Austin Pettis, was on the other end of four of those touchdown strikes. Pettis has set a school record with 14 touchdown receptions this season.

If the Broncos can win their final three games, it will give them their fourth perfect regular season in the last six years, but it gives them no guarantee of a BCS bowl. The Broncos ran the table during the regular season last year, but Utah, which was also undefeated and ranked higher, got the BCS bowl bid over them. I say over them because, as you know, normally only one non-BCS team is taken to play in a BCS bowl. This season, the Broncos may end up feeling snubbed again as TCU is also unbeaten and ranked higher. I’m not campaigning for Boise State here as TCU would seem to be deserving since it defeated the Broncos in the Poinsettia Bowl last season. You can’t complain about Utah last year either, after what the Utes did to Alabama. I will say this: if there was ever a year to take more than one non-BCS team, it would appear to be this one (at least where things stand right now).

All the Broncos can do now is continue to blow their opponents out of the water to gain additional voter support. While a blowout win this week over Utah State likely wouldn’t impress many, a blowout win over fellow WAC unbeaten Nevada next week might. The Broncos don’t want to get caught looking ahead though. It is worth noting that the Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Utah State. If you expect the Broncos to roll Friday night, bet Boise State at -24 at Bookmaker.

Utah State sits at 2-4 in WAC play, but it has been very competitive this season with three of its conference losses coming by four points or less. In fact, the Aggies played Nevada to a 3-point game back on October 17th. This will be Utah State’s bowl game, so to speak, and the Aggies have plenty of incentive to leave it all out on the field after going down 49-14 last season. The Aggies will have a little momentum on their side coming off a 24-9 win over San Jose State last game. The Aggies dominated the trenches, racking up 381 rushing yards. Star running back Robert Turbin got credit for 190 of those yards and scored two touchdowns. Turbin ranks 15th in the nation with 1,122 yards.

While the Aggies may be able to find some success moving the football on Boise State, the defense, which ranks 106th in the country, is going to have to step up. The Aggies are giving up 30.7 points per game on 436 yards of offense allowed. The good news is that number goes down to 24.7 points on 361 yards in home games, which is a big reason why the Aggies are 3-1 at home this season. While Utah State is 3-7 straight up, it is worth noting that it is 7-3 ATS this season. If you think odds makers are giving the Aggies too many points, bet Utah State at +24 at Bookmaker.

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